textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Saturday. Heat indices will peak between 105 and 108 F. Those without access to adequate cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable.

- High heat will ramp up early next week with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Heat headlines are likely both Monday and Tuesday.

- Many areas will see dry conditions next week; however, isolated afternoon showers and storms can not be ruled out each day as peak daytime heating occurs.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The latest NBM guidance supports issuing a heat advisory for Saturday. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of the advisory, there is sufficient confidence to include areas generally west of the Mississippi River and the Mississippi Delta region. Heat indices are forecast to reach triple digits across the area, with readings of 105 F to 108 F expected within the advisory zone.

NBM Saturday afternoon PoPs were increased to the Slight range (15-24 percent) to account for afternoon pop-up thunderstorms on the edge of the upper ridge.

AC3

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A hot and humid day is in play across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to upper 70s as a subtropical ridge broadens over the western Gulf. The latest KNQA radar sweep indicates a few light showers near the Tennessee River where agitated cu is witnessed and residual moisture exists along an upper low to our east. Moving into the afternoon hours,we could see an uptick in pop-up showers and maybe a few thunderstorms with peak daytime heating, mainly confined to areas along the Tennessee River. Otherwise, much of our area will remain dry and humid today.

Heading into the weekend, an upper-low, colocated with a potential tropical system near the Florida Peninsula, and the aforementioned broadening ridge will place us into an upper-level northwest flow regime. Temperatures will continue to warm each day as moisture remains in place in this regime keeping our dewpoints in the 70s. Heat Advisories will likely be warranted beginning Sunday, especially in the Delta region. The aforementioned upper-level regime will also promote isolated showers and thunderstorms, again mainly confined to areas along the Tennessee River, with lift from embedded shortwave perturbations. Though a moist airmass remains over the region with forecast PWATs range between 1.9-2.1", slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of the year, we're not looking at prolific rainfall producers with QPF amounts expected to remain generally less than half an inch areawide.

Moving past the weekend and into early next week, the subtropical ridge looks to build closer to the Mississippi Valley keeping the warming trend in place, further drying us out, and increasing highs into the mid and potentially upper 90s. Tuesday is shaping up to be our warmest day of the forecast period as highs soar into the upper 90s aided by the aforementioned ridge and warm air advection pushing into the Mid-South. Heat Advisories will likely be warranted both Monday and Tuesday as heat indices soar at or above 105 F. HeatRisk is pinging on 50-70% chance of major+ (level 3/5) for Monday and 70-90% for Tuesday. It will be hot.

By midweek, however, the overall weather pattern becomes a bit more uncertain as models struggle with the synoptic pattern. GEFS and GEPS depict an upper-level low pushing into the northeast CONUS from Quebec allowing the subtropical ridge to retrograde west as a cold front and upper-level northwest flow moves over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Where the ENS wants to keep this upper low further north and in turn, keeping the ridge over the Mississippi Valley. If the GEFS and GEPS depiction is correct, a slight cooling trend will begin Wednesday with temperatures edging closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s and potential upper 80s by the latter half of the week. However, if the ENS solution is correct, we're looking at temperatures staying in the mid 90s. We're hoping for the cooler solution. For now, keep an eye on subsequent forecast packages as details become more clear.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions persist at all sites through early Saturday afternoon. A low to moderate probability of isolated to scattered -SHRAs and -TSRAs exists late Saturday afternoon; a PROB30 group was added for JBR and MKL. Westerly winds will continue, becoming light and variable Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% through at least early week as 20 ft winds remain light.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ007-010-011- 020.

TN...None.