textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - A pleasant and unseasonably cool weekend is expected, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.

- Hot and dry conditions will return next week, with temperatures climbing back into the 90s, likely worsening ongoing drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A quiet and clear night is underway across the Mid-South. Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago as of 9:30 PM. Clear skies, saturated surfaces, and calm winds is a nice radiational fog setup. Patchy to locally dense fog is expected across West Tennessee, near the Tennessee River, and into extreme north Mississippi.

An area of high pressure will continue to sink south and eventually encompass the entire region in the coming days. This will be responsible for unseasonably cool nights and mornings, but pleasant fall-like conditions during the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday morning will be the coolest morning with lows dipping below 50 degrees for areas near the Kentucky and Missouri borders. This area of high pressure will bring plentiful dry air suppressing rain chances and keeping humidity at bay.

By Tuesday, the ridge will heighten and build for the rest of the work week. This will bring our temperatures back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Long term deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to keep this ridge over the area late into next week. The long presence of strong ridging will keep temperatures elevated and continue to keep rain chances at a minimum. This is not good news for ongoing drought conditions and heightens dangerous wildland fire conditions.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period at MEM, JBR, and TUP with N/NE winds. Patchy fog is expected to form at MKL along already saturated soils, calm winds, and a weak low- level inversion dropping to MVFR visibilities from 09-12z. Fog should lift by sunrise.

AMED NOT SKED at KTUP due to a communications outage.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Minimum RH values will hover around 30% for much of the period. Tuesday will have eastern portions of the region hovering around 40%, but will quickly dip below 30% again Wednesday. Rain chances are nil for the next several days, and with ongoing drought conditions, fire danger will be on the rise.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.