textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above-normal temperatures will continue into Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s across much of the Mid-South.

- A notable pattern shift will arrive on Friday, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Mostly dry and cooler, seasonal weather is forecast by next Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

This evening's upper air analysis features a mid-level ridge over the Southeast United States and Tennessee Valley with an upper- level low located over New Mexico. This is resulting in southwest flow aloft occurring across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Dry and warm conditions are prevailing this evening with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s near the Tennessee River, and upper 70s to around 80 near the Mississippi River.

The aforementioned ridge to our east will bring another hot and mainly dry day to the Mid-South with afternoon highs in the lower 90s across many locations. This prolonged period of hot and mainly dry weather is about to end as a weak cold front will begin to approach the area beginning late Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.

The upper-level low currently over New Mexico is expected to weaken into a positively-tilted open wave trough as it moves into portions of the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to spread into portions of northeast Arkansas towards Friday morning as lift occurs within the right entrance region of a departing northern stream jet streak. The front is expected to stall out south of I- 40 across the area on Friday with best upper-level support departing the region. Weak shear overall (<25 kts) combined with marginal instability is anticipated to mitigate the potential for any severe weather.

Latest deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate a second wave will move across the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night bringing another continued chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas along and south of I-40. Rainfall totals remain largely consistent with the previous forecast, averaging less than 1 inch along and north of I-40, and values between 1-1.5 inches through the period south. This projected rainfall is not expected to alleviate the substantial rainfall deficits that are already occurring across the area.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front for the latter half of the weekend resulting in cooler and seasonable temperatures arriving across the Mid-South for early October with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows by early next week as low as the upper 40s to lower 50s across favored locations in northwest Tennessee.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites with diurnal cumulus developing again on Thursday. South winds are anticipated to remain above 7 kts overnight at MEM with some compression issues possible as a low level jet develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley. South winds will increase to 10-14 kts with gusts around 20 kts at MEM and JBR on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values slightly higher in the 40 to 50% range Thursday afternoon. Additional moisture will return to the region on Friday through the upcoming weekend, with a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will follow for early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.