textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire Mid-South through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

00Z upper air analysis places a 598 dm high over Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This upper-level high is responsible for the very hot temperatures and mainly dry weather thus far across the Mid-South. Late evening temperatures remain uncomfortable and very warm in the 80s across the area with surface dewpoints in the 70s, resulting in heat index values in the 90s.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge is expected to remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend resulting in a continuation of dangerously hot temperatures across the area. Latest guidance suggests slightly lower dewpoints, especially across areas along and west of the Mississippi River. These lower dewpoints will likely translate to higher temperatures at or above 100 degrees with heat index values approaching or exceeding 110 degrees in many locations, especially on Sunday. Regardless, the combination of very hot and humid conditions combined with successive days of dangerous heat and little to no relief at night will result in the Extreme Heat Warning remaining in effect through Sunday evening. Probabilities remain very low (<10% chance) for any convective development into Sunday.

Mid to long range model trends continue to indicate the upper- level ridge axis retrograding into the Southern Plains by next week. This will allow for a weak front to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley with low chances (isolated/scattered coverage) for showers and thunderstorms each day during peak heating as overall shear will remain weak, favoring pulse-type convection. Additional heat headlines look likely well into next week with coverage depending on where the front stalls out across the Mid- South. NAEFS/EPS data suggests some relief in the form of slightly lower temperatures and an uptick in rain chances may be in store for late next week into the following weekend with lower mid-level heights across the eastern U.S.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 30 hours as surface high pressure remains over the Mid-South. Expect clear skies and light winds, with any Saturday afternoon cumulus bases remaining above 5k feet. No significant aviation impacts are anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot and prolonged dry conditions continue across the region. Widespread wetting rains are not expected across the Mid-South through the period. Despite the drying of fuels, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 35 percent with light south/southwest 20-foot winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.