textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- An unsettled forecast is expected Wednesday with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected across the Mid-South.

- A Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms is now in place for areas along and to the west of the Mississippi River with a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk elsewhere. The primary severe hazard will be damaging winds.

- A cold front will pass through the region Thursday, bringing more seasonable temperatures to the region through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft continues to persist around the eastern edge of a powerful ridge over the Rockies. A surface dewpoint gradient exists with 70+ F dewpoints over the Mississippi Delta region, lowering to around 65 F near the Tennessee River. Some showers are present across eastern Arkansas, associated with weak isentropic lift. Showers will remain isolated in nature through this afternoon. Temperatures will still climb into the 90s over most of the region. Parts of the Mississippi Delta region will have heat index values approach, if not intermittently exceed, 105 F through this afternoon. A Heat Advisory was discussed, but confidence in the coverage of persistent 105 F heat index values is too low to warrant any headlines today.

Northwest flow will continue tonight as a trough begins to make its way south into the Midwest and Great Lakes. By Wednesday morning, remnant MCVs and mid-level perturbations from overnight storms across the Plains will have been steered by the upper northwesterlies and will get close to the Mid-South. Instability will remain the entire time, and with the onset of subtle synoptic height falls ahead from the trough to our north and energy associated with the MCVs, storm coverage is expected to increase throughout Wednesday. Models are still uncertain on the exact evolution of storms, but as of right now, two rounds appear likely; one in the early morning and a second through the late afternoon and evening.

The first round looks to be linked to an initial MCV from storms over Kansas this morning that will travel east into MO tonight. Although models still have quite a bit of run-to-run uncertainty in the strength and coverage of convection that ignites due to this impulse, there is a consistent signal that some storms will develop early Wednesday morning north of the region and travel south. MUCAPE will remain well above 1000 J/kg, meaning that convection is expected to maintain itself long enough to make into the northern portions of the Mid-South by sunrise Wednesday. RAP profiles within this axis of MUCAPE show weak capping, but weak shear, indicating that thunderstorms are unlikely to be organized and offer a low-end risk of damaging winds.

The first round of precipitation will eventually weaken and/or move east of the region, potentially draping an outflow boundary somewhere across the Mid-South. As of right now, recovery of this airmass is expected to occur through the day as most short range guidance brings upwards of 3000 - 4000 J/kg MLCAPE by 21z Wednesday. Another MCV, which will be born from additional thunderstorms over the Plains tonight, is then forecast to reach the region in the afternoon hours. Continued subtle height falls, a mid-level MCV, and multiple, modified surface boundaries will all work in concert to support multiple regimes of convective initiation through the evening. Models have trended towards more bulk shear, up to 30 - 35 knots from a paltry 20 knots last night. This would indicate that storms may be able to become better organized with the potential for mainly damaging winds and hail. However, this many moving parts in a convective forecast rarely exhibits high forecast confidence, even 24 hours out. Tomorrow's convective forecast is no different with multiple boundaries and convective feedbacks influencing the forecast. So, the exact ceiling of the event and where this may occur is still shrouded in uncertainty, which is expected to become better resolved with time. For now, plan for a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of damaging winds and hail tomorrow afternoon and evening with the potential for changes to this forecast through the next day.

The upper trough, which will be over the Great Lakes by sunset Wednesday, will swing east into the latter half of the week. A front, potentially convectively modified or enhanced, will pass through the region Thursday. Convective feedbacks increase forecast uncertainty exponentially by this point in the forecast, making it difficult to ascertain the coverage of precipitation along the front through Thursday afternoon. Regardless, if storms were able to develop Thursday evening, forecast soundings indicate the potential for ample (2500+ J/kg) MLCAPE and enough DCAPE to warrant a low-end threat of damaging winds. By Friday, the forecast confidence increases that a more precipitation-free forecast will take hold.

As the trough continues to lift north and east into Canada Friday, ensembles are coming into agreement that a portion of the trough will become cutoff over the southeastern CONUS. This cutoff low then proceeds to retrograde west, turning into an inverted trough over Mississippi/Alabama next weekend. Past forecasts were trending towards an amplified ridge building over the southern CONUS by early next week. However, the existence of the inverted trough may stave off stronger ridge, and by extension much warmer temperatures. For now heat indices remain rather mild in the 90s this weekend, only marginally warming towards 100 F early next week. So, expect a seasonable, dry forecast this weekend with a gradual warming trend into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Two distinct rounds of SHRA/TSRA are expected during the latter half of the TAF cycle. The initial round will feature scattered convection, primarily impacting JBR, MEM, and MKL tomorrow morning. A second, more widespread round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to affect the MEM terminal area by late afternoon. Consequently, PROB30 groups were introduced for both periods, though prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated to persist outside of convective activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low as minimum relative humidity is forecast to remain above 50% and with light 20 foot winds through the week. Thunderstorm coverage will increase through Wednesday with multiple rounds of convection expected between the morning and afternoon hours. A cold front will then pass through the region Thursday, bringing northerly winds to the region and more seasonable weather into the upcoming weekend. Fog potential tonight is low, but is potentially higher Wednesday night and into Thursday depending on the coverage of rainfall through Wednesday and the strength of winds Thursday morning.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.