textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the mid 80s this weekend.

- Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Quiet weather currently resides over the region. This is due to an upper ridge that has now fully taken hold of much of the CONUS today as an expansive 590+ dm 500 mb ridge, currently centered over the southwestern CONUS. Therefore, northwesterly upper flow will prevail over the region through Friday, helping to retain the surface high pressure behind last weekend's cold front. Surface high pressure will still gradually shift eastward and allow for southwesterlies to start advection warmer air into the region today.

Warm air advection will persist into this weekend. As the upper ridge to our west flattens with time, a portion of the ridge will still manage to make its way to the Mid-South Saturday and Sunday. These two processes will then lead to a drastic increase in temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. As of this morning there is a 30% - 40% chance of highs reaching above 85 F Saturday and a 70% - 80% on Sunday. High temperature records across the region during this timeframe hover between 83 - 88, making this upcoming round of heat potentially record-breaking. So, expect near-record breaking temperatures through this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A surface low is expected to develop beneath a jet streak as it transits the northern CONUS, which will bring a cold front south into the region Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures will then bring our heat wave to an end Monday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Moisture advection will be meager up to this point in the forecast with PWATs at or below 1", which in combination with weak upper dynamics above the front, will yield no appreciable precipitation Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the forecast as the front slowly retreats back north with mild, dry weather expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates the airspace. South/southwest winds will go light overnight before picking up to generally 10 kts or less around 14Z tomorrow across all terminals.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry weather is expected to continue throughout the entire region today with minimum relative humidity values between 30% and 40%. 20 ft winds will be out of the southwest at 5 - 10 mph. Gradual moistening will accompany a warming trend through this weekend with minimum relative humidity values persisting between 30% and 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.