textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Another freeze is expected Sunday morning, primarily east of Interstate 55, with rural areas in West Tennessee dropping into the mid-20s.

- A steady warming trend will begin Monday with afternoon temperatures back into the lower 70s by Friday and Saturday.

- Extended dry weather will persist through late next week, likely worsening drought conditions across the region.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Broad surface high pressure will remain established and gradually strengthen through midweek. High temperatures will moderate slightly each day as the continental polar air mass weakens. Morning lows will continue in the 30s, maintaining frost and freeze concerns primarily east of the Mississippi River. NBM dewpoints were lowered across the area, as model guidance remains biased too high.

Aloft, an anomalous upper-level ridge will build into the OH/TN Valleys through midweek. A weakening West Coast trough will cut off from the mean flow Sunday, with the cutoff low tracking SE toward the Gulf Coast. Given a lack of deep-layer moisture, expect little more than mid/upper cloud cover through Monday.

The upper ridge will continue to amplify late week, pushing max temps 10-15 degrees above normal (highs in the low to mid 70s). Low-level moisture return remains limited until next weekend, keeping dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the Mid- South. Fire danger will creep a little higher each day, as minimum relative humidity values potentially fall into the upper teens and lower 20s. Additionally, drought conditions will persist or worsen with 7-day QPF remaining near zero. LREF ensemble guidance hints at weak troughing late next weekend, though overall flow remains progressive/slow. Above-normal temps look to persist beyond Day 7.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the airspace as high pressure remains overhead. Light northeast winds will prevail over the next 30 hours across all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Dry and cool polar air will remain over the Midsouth this weekend. This air mass will begin to warm as we move from Sunday through late next week as surface and upper level high pressure strengthen. Areas of frost will be prevalent each morning as lows dip into the 30s through midweek. Additionally, areas of fog will occur each morning near rivers, valleys, and bodies of water.

Areas of northern Mississippi and west Tennessee will likely experience minimum relative humidity below 35 percent as early as Sunday and Monday, and below 30 percent in the mid to latter portion of next week as high temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. Decided to stay close to the NBM10 guidance, which keeps upper 20s and lower 30s dewpoints in the forecast, resulting in minimum relative humidity values dipping below 30 percent each afternoon through Wednesday.

The limiting factor for higher fire danger will be weak 20-foot winds. The chances for wetting rainfall will remain near zero over the next seven days, worsening existing drought conditions.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.