textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Behind Tuesday's cold front dewpoints decrease resulting in less humid conditions across the Mid-South. Expect highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s and less muggy conditions through at least the end of the workweek.

- Increased humidity will return by the weekend, as temperatures warm slightly above normal.

- Rain chances will head back into the forecast this weekend and persist into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will generally favor the daytime hours.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A much more benign day is on display with current temperatures in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine across the Mid-South. Humidity will continue to decrease behind today's backdoor cold front. Cool surface high pressure will follow behind this front and continue to build over the region. A few diurnally driven, pop-up showers and thunderstorms could move over areas mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line today as residual moisture exists in these areas. However, most of the Mid-South will see dry conditions through the rest of the day. Aloft, an upper-level ridge, associated with an omega blocking pattern, will begin to build across the Mid-South over the next few days, continually filtering drier, cooler air. Tomorrow will be pleasant with lows in the 50s and 60s, dewpoints lower 60s, and highs in the low to mid 80s, much appreciated relief from the past nearly three weeks of wet, unsettled, and muggy conditions.

Thursday and Friday will be a near rinse and repeat of Wednesday with dry conditions remaining as high pressure prevails over the region. Friday afternoon will see a slight uptick in temperatures and dewpoints, highs in the mid to upper 80s, as the aforementioned ridge begins to broaden east and southwest flow begins to build over the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a low pressure system will begin to push into Baja California, as heights begin to fall and moisture begins to increase ahead of a cold front over the Central Plains.

Isolated to scattered (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances head back into the forecast this weekend as the aforementioned upper low continues to push east and weak troughing begins to push over the Great Lakes region from the Pacific Northwest. Forecast PWATs also begin to increase to around 1.8-2", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Though the moisture axis begins to increase beginning late Friday, Saturday does look to be mostly dry as the very dry airmass, brought in by upper-ridging, will need to break down for precipitation to fall. However, humid conditions do look to return beginning Saturday as dewpoints begin to increase. Moving into next week, ensemble members have PWATs remaining around 1.8-2" range through at least early week as the aforementioned upper-low translates northeast bringing wet and unsettled conditions back to the Mid-South beginning late Saturday.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High confidence exists for VFR conditions to persist throughout the entire period. Broad surface high pressure builds into the region this afternoon. Winds become gusty behind a backdoor cold front late this afternoon, then relax to around 10 knots late tonight. No impacts are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Dry conditions will prevail behind today's cold front through Friday. Minimum relative humidity values will drop below 40% beginning Thursday. Early summer-like heat and humidity will return this weekend and persist into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return also over the weekend and continue into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.