textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through midweek, effectively limiting the potential for extreme heat across the region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Two MCSs are ongoing as of 11 AM, one in eastern Kansas and the other in eastern Oklahoma. The system in eastern Oklahoma is likely to weaken/dip south and miss the Mid-South, but the Kansas system track is likely to skirt across the region. Showers and thunderstorms threatening damaging winds and large hail will accompany this system this afternoon and evening. Inverted-V model soundings increase confidence in the damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km, combined with a bit of dry air, will support hail growth as well, which is well represented by the Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. Much of the 12z CAM guidance favors this afternoon between 3-10 PM as the most likely timing for severe thunderstorm development.

As northwest flow aloft continues, the Mid-South is susceptible to systems threatening damaging wind and hail each day through at least midweek. Timing and placement will be refined as convective evolution becomes clearer. Due to the potential for storms each day, this does keep temperatures on the 'cooler side' with seasonal temperatures (low to mid 90s) instead of the extreme heat we have experienced thus far. Probabilities for heat index values above 105F are generally less than 20% through the work week, with some local hot spots in the Delta Region. Confidence is highest in this pattern sticking around through at least Wednesday. Confidence in the synoptic pattern decreases significantly beyond Wednesday due to model divergence. Be sure to monitor the forecast this week, especially if you have outdoor afternoon plans!

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Model guidance is consistent with another frontal boundary dropping down along the I-40 corridor this afternoon. The remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) will translate SE into JBR and MEM over the next couple of hours with scattered TSRAs developing. Further east, mainly daytime heating will result in isolated to scattered TSRAs at both MKL and TUP. Coverage remains too broad to upgrade beyond a VCTS at MEM and JBR and only PROB30s were maintained at all sites. Winds will briefly become west this afternoon before shifting back to the N and NNE tonight. Light winds and residual moisture will result in pockets of patchy fog near daybreak, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A weak cold front has cleared the region and dropped relative humidity values into the lower 40 percent range across areas along and west of the Mississippi River, with this drier air filtering across the majority of the Mid-South. However, light surface winds, daily rain chances, and adequate overall moisture will keep critical fire weather concerns safely at bay. The combination of light overnight winds and clear skies will also create a potential for patchy fog during the early morning hours, particularly along low-lying river basins.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.