textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Dry conditions are expected through at least the first half of next week, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

- Heat index values will rise to at least 105 degrees across most of the Mid-South through next week. Many locations will likely see values exceed 105 degrees.

- Dangerous heat is expected, with a Heat Advisory in effect for much of the area on Sunday and an Extreme Heat Watch through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A pleasant, albeit muggy and humid overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with clouds continuing to exit the area. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move along the I-24 corridor east of our area, with little to no shower activity through this evening. Guidance continues to decrease my confidence in any real flood threat overnight, although some probabilities still highlight the remaining Flood Watch counties having around a 10 to 20% of reaching flash flood guidance. Given the continued fluctuations, will leave the flood watch in place for our far northeastern counties along the TN/KY line through the overnight hours. As alluded to above, think the best threat should stay to the northeast and east of the Mid- South. Otherwise for the remainder of the area, dry conditions will prevail for much of the area overnight with temperatures falling to the mid to upper 70s by sunrise.

An upper-level ridge will begin to build through the region on Sunday, maintaining its hold over the eastern U.S. through at least the middle of next week. This will keep the Mid-South dry through at least midweek. Temperatures will warm fairly quickly tomorrow, with many locations reaching the low to mid 90s. With dew points in the very muggy low to mid 70s, heat indices will rise to around or above 105 for a large portion of the Mid-South. For this reason, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for most locations outside of northeast MS. As the high pressure continues to build through the region into next week, expect daily high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values reaching at least 105 degrees for most. While there could be some daily fluctuations of where heat index values will exceed 110 degrees, given the daily chances and this being our first prolonged heat wave of the summer, an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect from Monday through Thursday. This watch will likely be transitioned to either an Extreme Heat Warning or a Heat Advisory with the next full forecast package. With any prolonged heat wave, be sure to drink plenty of fluids, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC, avoid strenuous activity during peak heating in the afternoons, and check up on relatives and neighbors who may be sensitive to these conditions.

By the middle to end of the week, guidance continues to show well above-normal temperatures, but some fluctuations in the extent. ENS guidance has a slight more eastward jog in the high pressure system by the end of the week, which would allow some precipitation to return to the area and could lower daily high temperatures a few degrees. On the other hand, GEFS guidance favors keeping the high in place, with mainly dry conditions and high temperatures remaining in the upper 90s. As such, keeping the current Extreme Heat Watch through Thursday seems like the best solution, although additional heat headlines could be needed into next weekend. Considering the majority of June has averaged near to just below normal, it looks like our oppressive summertime heat is here to stay for the time being.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR will prevail over the next 30 hours, under an amplifying upper level ridge. Surface winds will prevail from the south- southwest, with daytime heating resulting in a bump in wind speeds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

No major fire danger concerns are anticipated for the upcoming week. While the next chance of wetting rains likely will not be until the end of the week, minRH values will remain above 40 percent.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>012-020.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.