textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Overnight lows early Sunday morning will likely fall into the upper 30s to low 40s, with the potential for isolated, patchy frost mainly north of I-40.

- Dry weather is expected to persist into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Clear and calm weather resides through much of the southern and central CONUS this evening. The trough responsible for the pattern change sits to our east with a cold front well into the Gulf with an area of high pressure centered over the Midwest. Continued height rises will promote more subsidence into Sunday, leading to clear weather and higher surface pressure to continue through tonight with light northerly winds. This sets the stage for optimal radiational cooling conditions that will lead to the coolest low temperatures we have seen in months. HREF guidance still paints large areas where lows have greater than a 50% chance of lows below 37 F this morning, leading to the possibility of isolated, patchy frost to develop overnight.

More of the same, in terms of the daytime temperature forecast, is expected Sunday with highs reaching into the low 70s with light winds. The surface high to our north will start to weaken and shift east at the same time, bringing southerlies back into the forecast briefly on Monday. However, a strong surface cyclone will develop off the east coast, forcing the cessation of southerly winds and bringing winds to near calm. Therefore, the rest of this week looks to be more calm, dry weather with a gradual warming trend as advective processes remain weak. Highs will creep back into the 80s by Wednesday across northern Mississippi, eventually creeping further north with each day through the end of the forecast. So, expect average temperatures becoming slightly above average with a dry forecast through this week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR with light NE winds veering to SE on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. Current relative humidity forecasts call for daily drops well below 30 percent each day, with some areas falling beneath 20 percent by the middle of the week. With a lack of rainfall over the past month, fuels have begun to dry out, leading to 10-hour fuels falling to around 10 percent. Fortunately, 20-foot winds will remain light as high pressure sits over the Mid-South. Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected to be needed through this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.