textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Dangerous and oppressive heat is expected this week with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees into Tuesday. Some locations may reach or exceed 110 degrees by the middle to end of this week.

- Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures only cooling to the mid to upper 70s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A hot and humid day is occurring across the Mid-South as temperatures are already approaching 90 degrees with surface dewpoints in the 70s. Visible satellite trends show some diurnally based cumulus developing with sunny to mostly sunny skies prevailing across the area.

A 595 dm upper-level ridge currently centered over portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys will bring prolonged very hot temperatures in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees this week. A combination of these very hot temperatures and high surface dewpoints in the middle 70s will result in heat index values ranging from 105 to 109 degrees through Tuesday. Dry weather is also expected to persist through Tuesday.

Short-term model trends suggest moisture will increase for the latter half of the week as low-level moisture on the southern periphery of the ridge drifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring a low chance (15-30%) of afternoon and evening pulse-type showers and thunderstorms driven by peak heating. Any convective activity will only bring a temporary relief to the dangerous and oppressive heat.

Uncertainty still remains with the potential for some locations reaching Extreme Heat Warning criteria for the latter half of the week. Latest guidance has trended slightly cooler with high temperatures which would keep most if not all of the area in advisory criteria. Thus, in coordination with surrounding offices decided to keep the Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the time being and reevaluate headlines over the next 24 hours. Convective chances into the Fourth of July weekend will increase modestly as the high pushes east to the Mid-Atlantic states.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates the airspace. Southwest winds will remain sub 10 kts over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent. The next chance for any measurable precipitation will not arrive until the middle to latter half of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.