textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday.

- Triple-digit heat index values return this weekend. Heat headlines may be needed, particularly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

- A pattern change is indicated on long range guidance, producing variable high temperatures for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Zonal to southwest flow continues across the region this morning. A surface low continues to spin across West Tennessee igniting a few showers on its backside. Lapse rates remain poor, and limited heating has occurred thus far due to dense fog and thick stratus. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question this afternoon, but temperatures may not exceed 90 across our northern zones, which will suppress instability values. Any area that does receive rainfall today will have the chance for some patchy fog to develop overnight into Friday morning. Winds may stay a bit more elevated which should suppress widespread dense fog, but patchy to locally dense fog could be hazardous to motorists.

By tomorrow afternoon, the aforementioned surface low will clear the area and southerly flow begins to prevail. This will result in a warming trend as well as increasing moisture. Hot and humid conditions will emerge and persist throughout the weekend. Typical, pulse-like, showers and thunderstorms could occur each afternoon with gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns. While pulse convection is hard to pin down, the most likely affected locations will be near the Tennessee River Valley and near the AR/MO border. Any convection that does develop will be an efficient rainfall producer, with PW values near/exceeding 2". We are still expecting less than an inch of precipitation within any storm as they should be short lived.

The southerly flow will persist at the surface, but flow will shift to the northwest aloft as a tropical system emerges over the Florida peninsula. Embedded in the northwest flow is a series of shortwaves that could impact the area through the weekend. Generally, the most likely area to receive rainfall for this will once again be in the northern zones. While the northern zones are more likely to be affected by the shortwave for precipitation, it will keep it a bit cooler up there and temperatures will be confined to the lower 90s with southern areas climbing to the mid to upper 90s. As temperatures and moisture climb, triple-digit heat index values will also emerge. Probabilities of reaching or exceeding 105F apparent temperatures are local to the Mississippi Delta region on Saturday with low to medium chances as early as Saturday afternoon. As southerly flow increases on Sunday, probabilities begin to increase for most areas along and West of the Mississippi River. This is likely to change and will be influenced by the presence of shortwave passages and will be evaluated daily. Prepare for heat index values in excess of 100F, but may not reach Heat Advisory criteria.

A subtropical ridge will emerge behind the tropical low and gradually lift north from Sunday onward as troughing digs across the Great Lakes into the northeast region. The trough does have a cold front and will attempt to sink it south by the middle of next week, but the subtropical ridge may be too much. The poor agreement amongst models of this frontal boundary has resulted in a widespread array of temperatures for next week. In the meantime, prepare for hot and humid conditions and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace this issuance. A few light showers have formed along a surface low currently rotating over west Tennessee. As we head into the afternoon hours, coverage is expected to increase with typical daytime heating. As such, PROB30s have been drawn in at JBR/MKL/TUP for - TSRA this afternoon. CAMs continue to struggle with overall coverage as the surface low rotates over the Mid-South, so pattern recognition was the main driver of thunderstorms this afternoon. Overnight, fog and reduced visibility is expected to impact MKL as winds go light along saturated soils. Southwest winds will remain 10 kts or less over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as tropical moisture continues to impact the Mid-South. Wetting rain chances will linger into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.