textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Patchy black ice will be possible through sunrise, mostly in areas along the I-40 corridor that are still wet from Thursday's rainfall. Roads that look wet may actually be icy. - Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Other than a slight chance (15 to 20 percent) of rain on Sunday, dry and cold conditions prevail until at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The precip from the shortwave that moved through early Thursday afternoon has largely come to a close, clearing out much faster than guidance had anticipated. What we are left with around midnight is a few light returns on the radar, which is more of a fine mist than any falling precipitation. This does raise a little bit of a concern about freezing fog overnight since temperatures are already right around freezing and will continue to fall overnight. On that same note, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for patchy black ice for much of the area through sunrise Friday. Several areas along the I-40 corridor still have water on the ground from Thursday's rainfall, which has the potential to flash freeze into slick spots. This will mainly impact bridges and overpasses, especially in rural areas. This black ice threat should be over by mid morning at the latest; temperatures will rise back above freezing and roads will have plenty of time to dry up throughout the day.

With the exception of some light showers (15-20% chance) on Sunday associated with a messy surface pattern, chilly and dry conditions will prevail through the beginning of next week. We're locked into a pattern that is leaning below normal (40% chance) for at least the next week due to persistent northwest flow aloft. For early December, "below normal" means lows generally around freezing and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. With little to no moisture upstream, it's looking like the forecast will remain predominantly dry through midweek. Another weak frontal passage may encourage another round of showers on Wednesday, but temperatures will be far enough above freezing to preclude any winter impacts.

CAD

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

IFR and MVFR CIGs are likely to persist at MEM, MKL, and TUP through at least this afternoon. The exception will be JBR, where VFR CIGs will persist through late afternoon as it remains in a cooler and drier air mass.

A surface pressure trough will move into the region from the NW late tonight and push a low stratus deck into the region. There is a 50 to 70% chance of LIFR and VLIFR CIGs developing overnight at MEM and MKL, with 30 to 40% chances for Additionally, hi-res guidance is predicting a 30 to 50% of dense fog developing near the end of the period at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than some sporadic showers on Sunday, chilly and mostly dry conditions prevail through midweek.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.