textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Another cool night is ahead for the Midsouth. Tonight's lows will generally range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few areas near the Tennessee River will see lows in the lower 40s. Under mostly sunny skies, Friday's highs will warm to the mid 70s, about 5 degrees below normal.

- A few showers and thunderstorms may enter far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and far northwest Tennessee Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may also spread into north Mississippi along a warm front early Saturday morning.

- Warmer air will spread through the Midsouth Saturday and Sunday, in advance of a cold frontal passage Sunday night. Sunday afternoon and evening will bring the greatest chances of rainfall over the next seven days. Severe thunderstorm chances appear low for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The second week of May will bring relatively quiet weather to the Midsouth, with Sunday providing greatest chances of measurable rainfall for the week.

Surface high pressure will lift to the east of the area tonight, but not sufficiently so to bring southerly return flow to areas east of Memphis. With calm winds, areas near the Tennessee River will likely see lows tonight in the lower 40s.

Zonal flow will prevail over the Midsouth through Friday afternoon, with fair weather continuing. Friday night will bring bi-model rain chances to the Midsouth. A northern branch trough moving into the middle Mississippi River Valley will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas north of a Jonesboro to Jackson line during the evening. Further south, tropical maritime air will spread into north Mississippi ahead of a southern branch trough over east Texas. Scattered early morning showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. During the Friday night and Saturday period, areas along the I-40 corridor will remain predominantly dry.

As mentioned above, Sunday will bring the greatest chance of areawide rainfall. Thunderstorms will be most likely in the afternoon and early evening, aided by afternoon heating. Midlevel height falls and a cold frontal passage are expected late Sunday evening after convective instability has waned. LREF joint probabilities of 30kt of deep layer bulk shear and 750J/kg of CAPE remain below 20 percent and confined to areas south of I-40 Sunday afternoon. This decreases to around zero percent after sunset Sunday evening. With PWAT of 1.25 to 1.5 inches, QPF will average less than 0.25 inches Sunday and Sunday night.

Following a brief cooldown Monday, temperatures will warm to near normal Tuesday. A weak cold front may glance the Midsouth Tuesday night, with minimal potential for wetting rainfall or cooler temperatures. Over the latter half of next week, temperatures will remain above normal, as an upper ridge lifts from the southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. North winds around 10 kts will go light and variable overnight, picking back up from the south mid Friday morning above threshold at MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent on Monday and Tuesday, following likely wetting rainfall on Sunday. Warm and predominately dry conditions will prevail next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.