textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- A pattern change will bring the first hard freeze (temperatures at or below 28 degrees) of the season Monday and Tuesday mornings.

- Temperatures return to near normal by mid week as dry conditions continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Visibilities are deteriorating quickly across nearly the entire Mid-South due to dense fog. There is some uncertainty with respect to widespread dense fog, as a deck of cirrus continues to move into the region from the west. Confidence still remains high enough to warrant an expansion of the advisory.

Went ahead and expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to cover a large portion of eastern Arkansas, the entire Missouri Bootheel, and the rest of west Tennessee along the Mississippi River. Be weary of rapidly changing visibilities, if you are traveling overnight and tomorrow morning. The rest of the forecast is on track.

AC3

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A weak cold front is slowly traversing its way across the region and was near Dunklin, MO at 9 PM. Plentiful moisture from rain and southerly flow ahead of this front will enhance the potential for fog development. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM Saturday morning generally for areas along and south of the I-40 corridor. Conditions have already begun to deteriorate, but uncertainty lies on the southern reach of the aforementioned front. If the front stalls a bit further south than anticipated, adjustments to the advisory may be needed. Nonetheless, use extra caution when traveling tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Given the weak nature of this front, very little precipitation is expected tomorrow once it starts moving again. Some models are trying to depict this front retreating north to bring showers and thunderstorms ahead of a reinforcing cold front. However, this scenario is unlikely due to the location of the parent trough and a much stronger front approaching. While some drizzle is possible tomorrow, no significant precipitation is anticipated.

The reinforcing front will bring winter-like temperatures to the area with our first hard freeze of the season occurring Sunday night into Monday morning. The incoming polar air mass will bring very cold and very dry conditions to the region to start the work week.. Dewpoints and morning lows will be in the 20s and low 30s. The high on Monday is unlikely to exceed 50 degrees, but temperatures will slowly begin to rebound back to normal by midweek. Despite a known cold bias by the NBM for very dry air masses, temperatures are expected to rebound into the 70s by the weekend Our next chance of rain is not on the horizon which could raise some fire danger concerns and the ongoing drought across Mississippi.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Widespread dense fog will likely linger for a few hours after sunrise this morning. Winds will vary considerably during the TAF cycle. Southerly flow will shift from the north again tonight as another cold front moves across the region. Overnight wind speeds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts near 25kts. No precipitation is expected with the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Cold and dry conditions move in this weekend behind a cold front. Monday and Tuesday afternoons look the driest by far with MinRHs falling below 35% both days, but cold temperatures and light winds should mitigate fire danger. Humidity and temperatures

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.