textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive tonight, bringing cooler and much drier continental air into the beginning of the week.

- Low relative humidity values will result in elevated fire danger over through the work week; please exercise caution and heed local burn bans.

- Temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 80s by midweek with unsettled weather potentially returning late next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface and satellite observations show clearing cloud cover over the region, removing a days-long area of stratus. Sunshine will begin to filter through the clouds, leading to a slightly warmer day today. However, northerly flow behind last week's front is still present which will keep highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A few showers will stick around across northeastern Mississippi, but will not produce much in terms of accumulating precipitation. A cold front associated with a trough currently over Ontario will swing south through tonight leading to a punch of dry air and further cooling. This will lead to very pleasant weather Monday and Tuesday with light winds, highs in the 70s and low 80s, and low humidity.

The upper pattern will return to a more benign, zonal state over the southern CONUS into the middle of the week, keeping the region dry. At the surface, cold advection will begin to weaken by Tuesday, leading to a gradual increase in temperatures through the end of the week. Expect high temperatures to climb back into the 80s, reaching into the upper 80s by Thursday. On the other hand, dry air will remain throughout the region, leading to afternoon relative humidity values around 30% or lower starting Wednesday, likely lasting through the end of the week. So, elevated fire weather conditions will exist through the end of next week.

While the above is occurring, the original front from last week will settle across the Gulf, transitioning into a stationary boundary. In the past 24 hours, models have started to introduce the idea of a tropical system forming along the stationary front off the eastern coast of Mexico, eventually dragging it northward towards the CONUS along the Gulf coastline in MS/AL/FL. While models have indicated the potential for a landfalling tropical cyclone, there is not yet a clear consensus amongst either ensemble or deterministic guidance on if there will be a tropical cyclone or its strength. However, the presence of tropical activity would have large implications on the last few days of the forecast period, but with current uncertainties it is still too early to pin down exact impacts for the Mid-South.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Dry air will continue to flow into the Midsouth this evening. Once a high MVFR deck clears TUP in an hour or two, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 30 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent for the majority of the region Sunday, but another frontal passage Sunday night will bring lower humidity into the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will generally sit between 30 and 40 percent Monday and Tuesday. Warmer weather will enter the forecast by Wednesday, leading to a sharp decrease in relative humidity values through the end of the week, dropping to 30 percent or below. This will mark the return of elevated fire danger. Light 20-foot winds and recent wetting rains are expected to curtail a higher threat of fire danger.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.