textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Cool and dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday.

- There is a low to medium chance (20-40 percent) of rain showers on Wednesday, mainly for locations east of the Mississippi River.

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected for the second half of this week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

A 1035 mb surface high over the Southern Plains is bringing cold and dry weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley late this morning. Late morning temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

This surface high will bring cold and dry conditions into tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will remain below normal with highs in the 40s while clear skies and excellent radiational cooling will drop overnight temperatures into the 20s. By Tuesday, temperatures will moderate back to slightly above normal with highs returning to the 50s.

Short-term model trends still indicate a weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front rotating through the Mid-South on Wednesday. Model soundings show only a short window for light rain with this moisture-starved front. Thus, 20-30 PoPs still seem reasonable at this point, especially east of the Mississippi River with rainfall amounts generally one-tenth of an inch or less.

Long term models indicate another mid-level trough rotating through the Lower Mississippi Valley next weekend. Confidence continues to remain low with a large variability existing between timing and moisture associated with this next system. Thus, we have kept the low NBM PoPs for now and will consider adding precipitation chances when models come into better agreement.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

A dry airmass will result in continued VFR conditions. A tight pressure gradient behind yesterday's front will allow winds at MEM/MKL/TUP to gust up to 25 kts over the next few hours. Northwest winds will become light and variable overnight. Southwest winds will be sub 10 kts tomorrow afternoon.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

No major fire weather concerns are expected this week. While a relatively dry forecast is expected over the next several days, recent rainfall should alleviate any major concerns. MinRH values may fall below 40% for some in areas through Tuesday, with 20 ft winds approaching 10 mph at times, especially across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. Additional moisture will return to the area on Wednesday, accompanied by a low chance of showers.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.