textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South Thursday as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- A cold front will bring multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall starting Thursday evening, continuing through early Saturday morning.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms is in place Thursday and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place Friday. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats, quick spin-up tornadoes are a secondary threat.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A large cirrus shield has overspread the Mid-South this evening ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Despite a relatively thick layer of high clouds, fog has been able to develop over north Mississippi due to light winds and crossover temperatures being met. Due to the persistent nature of this fog bank already tanking some observation sites' visibilities to 1/4 mile, opted to start with a localized Dense Fog Advisory for north Mississippi through 9AM Thursday. This will need to be monitored overnight for expansions; many short term models depict this fog bank becoming transient and lifting north throughout the early morning hours.

The cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will make its initial approach Thursday evening. A few WAA showers will likely lift north throughout the day, but the more organized severe weather potential starts after sunset with the cold front. Early indications of convective mode suggest linearly organized showers and storms with fast storm motions to the northeast. The severe weather outlook for Thursday highlights mainly a damaging wind potential, though modest 0-1 km shear on the order of 30 kts poses a secondary threat of quick spin-up tornadoes. Will note that short term models are not resolving the low level environment very well on Thursday evening; the shape of the 0-1 km hodographs for eastern Arkansas range from dangerously loopy to completely straight in the CAMs. This will have major implications on the available SRH and resultant tornado threat for Thursday evening.

Timing of this first round looks to start up around 6PM Thursday as the cold front approaches. Once the onset of precip starts, convection will be in the area for pretty much the next 36 hours as the front will make extremely slow eastward progress. The more organized thunderstorms will most likely die down by 2AM or so on Friday as instability trickles off overnight. However, showers and the occasional thunderstorm will still be in the area continuously into Friday morning. After a brief lull in convection midday Friday, things will start to pick back up again in the afternoon.

With Friday evening being on the very tail end of 00Z CAM resolution, it's a little tricky to narrow down exact timing for the second round of severe weather. At least from a surface analysis standpoint, the surface low will finally catch up to the front and track through southeast Missouri around midnight Friday night. Before this happens, there will be a window of very favorable overlap between the moist warm sector and shear along the front. It's looking like the second round of severe weather on Friday evening will pack more of a punch. Still thinking damaging winds will be the primary threat again, with a secondary threat of a few quick spin-up tornadoes.

Another added layer to Friday evening's severe weather potential is the heavy rainfall. PWATs are nearly maxed out compared to climatology on Friday, which will support very efficient rainfall producers. Given the prolonged period of SW to NE storm motions and a very slow-moving front, training storms will become a major concern Friday night. Forecast storm total rainfall is on the order of 1 to 3 inches for most of the area, but there is an axis of 3+" inches forecast for northeast Mississippi. Conditions for heavy rainfall and training storms look very favorable in this area, which may lead to localized pockets of 4+ inches of rain, especially near and southeast of Tupelo. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely throughout the day on Friday.

The front will finally clear the area by midday on Saturday. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return through at least next Wednesday as the upper level pattern de-amplifies. The long range outlook depicts seasonably cool temperatures and a medium chance (40%) of below normal precipitation.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Expect VIS to gradually improve over the next few hours, as southerly winds pick up behind a surging surface warm front. CIG transition to MVFR may take a few hours longer, given the influx of moisture and relatively modest warming.

Pending no significant changes in CAM guidance, TSRA chances appear to be below mentionable levels at all but JBR this evening. Main impact for MEM will strong southerly low level jet, with FL020 winds south/southwesterly around 50KT.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. 20 ft winds will increase ahead of a surface low Thursday, but wetting rain and thunderstorm chances increase in tandem, limiting fire weather potential. Even in areas that do not see rain, moisture advection will increase minimum relative humidity values above 50% Thursday and Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>006- 008-009-012>017-021>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.