textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through this week, accompanied by increased humidity.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late this week, likely peaking over the weekend. There is a potential for excessive rain and flooding this weekend, particularly over areas along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Unseasonable warmth and humidity will prevail over the Midsouth this week. Thunderstorm chances will increase late in the week, particularly for areas along and north of I-40.

This morning's upper air analysis showed a low amplitude ridging over the Great Plains, downstream of longwave trough over northern CA and southern OR. The low amplitude ridge will lift into lower MS River Valley on Tuesday, displacing the storm track to our north, over the mid-MS River Valley. We can expect more sunshine on Tuesday, which will help drive high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will edge east on Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper trough lifts into the central Great Plains. This will set up an active storm corridor from the central TX into the mid-MS River valley on Wednesday. While the Mid-South remains under the western periphery of the ridge, a few storms will be possible north of the I-40 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Weak deep layer shear (30KT or less) and capping from an elevated mixed layer will limit storm coverage and persistence.

The central Great Plains upper trough will lift into the Midwest on Wednesday. This will bring modest midlevel height falls and surface front into the Midsouth, increasing rain chances north of I-40. This front will lift north later in the day Thursday. Depending on timing, we could see a brief window of severe storm chances near this front Thursday afternoon, given deep layer shear nearing 45KT north of I-40.

Over the western CONUS, a deep longwave trough will develop over the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday, while the downstream ridge amplifies off the Southeast coast. Similar to a mid/late spring pattern, the Great Plains will be under the main interface between these two synoptic systems, experiencing multiple episodes of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The Mid- South will remain under the western periphery of the amplified ridge, which will help drive temperatures to around 20 degrees above normal on Friday and threaten Memphis' record high of 81. With dewpoints in the lower 60s, convective inhibition will likely be insufficient to rule out thunderstorms over the Midsouth Friday afternoon. While the central and southern Great Plains are under a 15% risk for severe storms Friday, weak deep layer shear (20 KT or less) will limit severe thunderstorm chances over the Midsouth on Friday.

The bulk of medium range guidance depicts the western CONUS longwave trough becoming cut-off over Baja over the weekend. As a weak northern branch trough moves into the upper Midwest, the southern branch of the upper jet will drop into the Midsouth, coincident with a surface stationary surface front. This setup will remain nearly static through the weekend and will favor heavy rainfall, given PWAT of 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A quasi-stationary boundary still bisects the area between MEM and north of MKL. All sites are currently VFR early this evening. Latest guidance suggests that MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to return overnight at JBR. Increasing low-level moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday morning is favorable for the development of MVFR ceilings at TUP, and a low chance (20% or less) at MEM for a few hours. Confidence wasn't high enough to include an MVFR deck at MEM late Tuesday morning, but we will consider an addition in the 3Z amendment or 6Z TAF issuance. Winds are expected to increase Tuesday morning with sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts between 20-25 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mid-spring like warmth and humidity will prevail over the Mid- South this week, while 20 foot winds remain light. Rain chances will increase late in the week, with areas north of I-40 most likely to experience wetting rainfall.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.