textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on today, bringing a localized risk for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- A warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend with highs in the low 90s. Triple-digit heat indices are possible, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River, potentially requiring heat headlines for the Delta region.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A surface low will continue to retrograde over Mississippi on Wednesday, encouraging another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous coverage is anticipated, but lackluster kinematics will keep the severe threat at bay. Given precipitable water values above 2 inches, efficient rainfall rates are anticipated. This may produce isolated flooding concerns in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will continue through the end of the week, though coverage decreases both Thursday and Friday.

The forecast for the upcoming weekend is a bit uncertain due to the presence of a messy synoptic pattern. By Saturday, an area of high pressure will develop over the western Gulf. At the same time, a weak shortwave will emerge out of the Ohio Valley and travel towards middle Tennessee. Showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out both Saturday and Sunday, particularly for areas near the Tennessee River. Depending on how much rain develops this weekend, afternoon highs will vary. The NBM does appear to have a good handle on this situation with the highest temperatures settled over the Mississippi Delta on Sunday. Heat headlines cannot entirely be ruled out, but confidence in heat indices reaching 105 degrees remains low.

Further forecast uncertainties exist into next week as the Mid- South remains sandwiched between an upper level ridge out west and a trough over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will likely stay in the 90s with each day bringing bouts of showers and storms. Long range guidance is hinting at a frontal passage by the middle of next week.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VCSH/VCTS expected to develop and increase in coverage by late morning with diurnal heating. Peak convection anticipated during peak heating hours of the late afternoon. Storm motion will be generally E to W. Convective activity will diminish rapidly post- sunset. Light winds persist through the period, averaging 6 kts diurnally and less than 5 kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as ample moisture and wetting rain chances persist.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.