textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- A notable pattern shift takes place Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Mostly dry and cooler, seasonal weather is forecast by next Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will result in rainfall accumulations of up to 2 inches across the Mid-South through the weekend.

- The coolest temperatures will arrive in the Mid-South by Tuesday where low temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Morning observations depict an expansive area of precipitation over much of the Mid-South, particularly over eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee. Along and west of the Mississippi River, precipitation takes on more of a stratiform appearance with forcing from the right entrance region of a 500 - 200 mb jet streak and subtle low-level convergence due to an advancing front. To the east of the Mississippi, convection is currently the predominant mode of precipitation as MUCAPE values surge to between 500 - 1000 J/kg. Morning upper air data from LZK shows a very moist atmosphere containing 2.3"+ PWATs. Therefore, shallow convection will be capable of heavy rainfall and localized flooding east of the Mississippi with light stratiform precipitation elsewhere through tonight. Due to the large amount of cloud cover and widespread precipitation, highs are expected to remain in the 70s and 80s except for portions of northern Mississippi where cloud cover will be minimal, leading to highs in the low 90s.

A similar forecast is in the cards for tomorrow as the front continues to slowly sag south through Tonight. However, the majority of the upper dynamics that will aid Friday's precipitation will have left the region, leading to a lower coverage of precipitation from the stratiform regime, which by this point will exist over all but northern Mississippi. Northern Mississippi on the other hand will still be able to generate MUCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg, kicking off another round of thunderstorms through Saturday evening. Again, expect high temperatures to remain close to the same as Friday in both space and magnitude. Additional showers are possible Sunday over northern Mississippi as a disturbance develops within the Gulf and pushes more moisture inland. Again, expect heavy downpours to be the primary impact from any precipitation.

Into Monday, the front will have made its way into central Mississippi, erasing mentionable PoPs along with it. In its wake, cooler and drier weather will filter into the region with afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle to upper 70s. Furthermore, lows are forecast to drop into the 50s and even into the upper 40s across portions of West Tennessee starting Monday. Similar forecasts are expected through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend through the end of the week as post-frontal advection wanes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A large stratiform rain shield continues to shift across West Tennessee early this afternoon. Convective elements are evident on satellite and radar further south and east across portions of north Mississippi and near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee. Consequently, thunder has been excluded from the MEM and JBR TAFs, supported by short-term probabilities remaining under 30%. A PROB30 for TS continues at MKL, while VCSH is maintained at TUP. The threat of thunderstorms will diminish significantly after sunset. Otherwise, ceilings will degrade to IFR levels at all terminals tonight before gradually improving to MVFR by Saturday morning. Prevailing winds will remain from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Widespread wetting rains and southerly moisture transport will keep fuels humid and minimum relative humidity values above 40% through this weekend. A front currently bisects the region from southwest to northeast, which will continue to push south over the next few days. South of the front, expect light, southerly 20- foot winds with a northerly wind shift north of the boundary. Drier conditions will take hold by Monday with relative humidity values beginning to drop back below 40%, but wetting rains should keep fuels humid enough to limit fire danger concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.