textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Elevated fire danger is expected across the entire Mid-South today due to very low humidity and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for north Mississippi through this evening.

- Low-end fire danger potential will linger Sunday throughout the Mississippi River Delta as dry air and gusty winds remain.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal next week, with a 60% to 80% chance of rainfall starting Wednesday, lasting through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The passage of a cold front yesterday has ushered in a cool, dry air mass across the Mid-South. Therefore, precipitation-free weather is expected through this weekend with temperatures climbing into the low 60s this afternoon. Dewpoints have dropped significantly with afternoon dewpoint depressions forecast to rise to anywhere between 25 and 30 F this afternoon, yielding minimum relative humidity values well below 30%. Although wind will weaken through today, dry fuels, particularly those produced by January's ice storm across northern Mississippi, and sufficiently low relative humidity values will bring an elevated risk for dangerous fire weather through this evening. Winds will turn to a southerly direction tonight as the area of high pressure behind the front slides east, bringing enough moisture to relieve the region of today's notable fire danger Sunday. That being said, minimum relative humidity values will still drop into the low 30s with a 20% - 30% chance of dropping below 30% across the Mississippi River delta, which would overlap with an area of enhanced 15 - 20 mph wind gusts.

Northwesterly upper flow from behind the front will weaken and become more zonal with time next week. Southerlies at the surface will still remain, allowing for the advection of Gulf moisture and warmer temperatures. Monday through Tuesday will remain dry with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Some gusty winds are expected across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel as a tighter pressure gradient sets up, but currently the odds of 25 mph sustained or 40 mph gusts remain below 50%. At this time, a Wind Advisory is not expected.

Guidance continues to indicate an upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies and into the central Plains by Wednesday with a cold front arriving into the region later in the day. Sustained, southerly moisture transport earlier through the week will help moisten the atmosphere ahead of the system with 90th+ percentile PWATs in place by Wednesday. NBM PoPs increase in tandem Wednesday ahead of the upper system. However, there is still large uncertainty in the position of the cold front between guidance members, especially between the GFS and ECMWF, that will impact chances for thunderstorms and the amount of rain we would receive. One common trend between the two within the past few forecast cycles has been the expansion of higher quality surface moisture across the southern CONUS and a later arrival of the cold front. This would tend to lean towards higher convective chances, but the low-amplitude nature of this trough is only expected to produce marginal (< 500 J/kg) MLCAPE within these solutions. Therefore, widespread rain showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected within low-end chances for severe weather.

Any frontal passage Wednesday or Thursday is expected to remove moisture briefly before recovering through the end of the week. Ensembles keep upper troughing over the central CONUS with a subtropical extension southwest into the eastern Pacific. However, there are still uncertainties regarding the evolution of these features through the rest of the period that decrease forecast confidence. But a rainier, more unsettled pattern seems likely into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions continue after the passage of a cold front. Winds will be light and variable overnight, eventually picking up mid morning from the south. Intermittent south wind gusts (up to 20 kts) will be the main story tomorrow afternoon as the pressure gradient along the back side of the surface high stays tight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening across portions of northern Mississippi as a combination of very dry air and elevated winds persist across the region. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to bottom out anywhere from 20% to 35% this afternoon with gusty northeast winds of up to 20 mph across the Red Flag Warning area. Elsewhere, winds will be slightly weaker, but with similarly dry air, warranting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through this evening.

Fire weather concerns are anticipated to remain through Sunday, especially within the Mississippi River Delta. Short-term models depict a region of locally drier air with minimum relative humidity values below 30% and elevated southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph. At this time, Red Flag Warning criteria are unlikely to be met and another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is expected to be needed tomorrow as well.

Southerly moisture transport will eventually cover the entire region into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values will then rise above 30% starting Monday and they will remain there through the rest of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009- 011>017-020>024.

TN...None.