textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances will return late Saturday and persist into Sunday morning.

- Additional rainfall will arrive towards the middle of next week as we move into a wet and warm weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

This morning's upper air analysis placed an upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. with an upper-level trough located over the West Coast. This ridge of high pressure has brought a continuation of dry and above normal temperatures to the Mid-South. Late morning temperatures range from the middle 60s to middle 70s.

The aforementioned ridge will push east tonight into Saturday as a southern stream trough moves from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will gradually bring an end to the prolonged dry weather the Mid-South has experienced thus far.

Short-term models and CAMs suggest rain will begin to develop across the area on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon. Model soundings indicate there will still be a substantial amount of dry air initially, limiting the amount and coverage of rain showers until better moisture arrives later Saturday night into Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible during this period as weak elevated instability will be present. Average total rainfall amounts for the weekend are anticipated to range from less than a half inch west of the Mississippi River, and approaching one inch near the Tennessee River. Mid level shortwave ridging will build back into the area Sunday night into Monday.

Long range deterministic and ensemble model trends continue to show a deeper upper-level trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley next Tuesday into Wednesday. This next system will bring another chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South. A low CAPE, high shear environment will be present with confidence remaining low for severe thunderstorm potential as instability is expected to remain meager at best. LREF probabilities for rainfall one inch or greater remain between 20-30 percent for this time period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with light easterly winds becoming more southeasterly. Cloud cover will remain VFR with BKN/OVC ceilings at or above 10 kft. Rain will begin to increase in coverage through Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours Sunday beyond the end of the forecast period. However, precipitation chances are still too low during this forecast period to mention in any of the TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Wetting rains will return to the area this weekend with better rainfall amounts approaching one inch occurring closer towards the Tennessee River as an upper level trough moves across the region. A second system will bring slightly better rain chances for next Tuesday into Wednesday with areawide rainfall amounts averaging between one to two inches.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.