textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Periods of gusty winds will continue this afternoon, with occasional wind gusts up to 25 mph.

- Overnight lows early Sunday morning will likely fall into the upper 30s to low 40s, with the potential for isolated, patchy frost mainly north of I-40.

- Dry weather is expected to persist into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A beautiful, fall-like day is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the 50s into the low 60s. Winds will remain slightly elevated through the daytime hours as an upper-level trough continues to move eastward with a tight pressure gradient lingering through the region. Wind gusts up to 25 mph can be expected into the afternoon, with wind speeds finally beginning to subside after sunset and into the overnight hours. With generally clear skies overnight and decreasing wind speeds, we will see some decent radiational cooling. By early Sunday morning, locations generally north of the I-40 corridor will see low temperatures in the upper 30s with lows in the low 40s elsewhere. Current HREF guidance has about a 30 to 50% chance of lows north of I-40 falling below 37 degrees. However, given the uncertainty with our wind speeds overnight, opted against any Frost Headlines for our northern tier of counties that could fall below this threshold. While we will not rule out some isolated, patchy frost along the far northern tier of counties or low-lying regions, wind speeds may remain high enough to hinder widespread frost development and temperatures will likely only fall that low for an hour or two. For additional context, this is around the time of year that we typically see our first frost for these locations.

After the chilly start Sunday morning, temperatures will warm back into the upper 60s to low 70s with a high pressure building across the region. Generally through the remainder of the forecast, dry conditions are expected to persist with a warming trend. By the middle of the week, most of the Mid-South will see high temperatures creep back into the 80s, with some locations potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s again by the end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Gusty north to northeast winds will trend east to southeasterly and weaken over the next 24-30 hours. The strongest winds will be near MKL and TUP this afternoon, as high pressure edges in from the west. Tonight and tomorrow, prevailing winds will be from the east to southeast, 4-6kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Generally dry conditions are expected to persist over the next seven days, with no appreciable rainfall expected. Light winds will return on Sunday, with minimum relative humidity values between 30% and 35% for the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will likely fall near to below 30% for much of the area by Monday afternoon through much of next work week. Despite winds remaining generally light, low 10-hour dead fuel moisture is anticipated across eastern Arkansas, north Mississippi, and southwest Tennessee. As such, daily Rangeland Fire Danger Statements may be warranted into the next work week for at least some portions of the Mid-South if this trend continues.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.