textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist through at least Saturday with high temperatures generally in the middle to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances may begin to return early next week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A change from perpetual heat has finally loosened its grasp across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South today. Surface observations place a cold front as far south as northern portions of the Gulf. Aloft, a shortwave trough will traverse the Middle Mississippi River Valley and into the Ohio River Valley through today. Mid-level WV imagery shows a large area of subsidence over the region, which will likely keep the clouds through at least the early afternoon hours and keep surface temperatures from rising too high. Therefore, expect highs today in the low 80s with some areas potentially remaining below 80 degrees with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

The current surface pattern will largely continue through the end of the week and into this weekend. An upper ridge will eventually build over the southern Plains, bringing southerlies back to the region by the end of this weekend. Warmer temperatures will arrive as a result, but highs are expected to only reach up into the middle and upper 80s with NBM probabilities of reaching at or above 90 degrees only making it to around 30% - 40% next Tuesday. Some rain is possible as some guidance depicts a few straggling showers making their way southwest into eastern Arkansas Sunday morning. However, PoPs remain below 40% owing to relatively high forecast uncertainty in the evolution of the antecedent precipitation Saturday evening. Regardless, the majority of the forecast is likely to be dry, especially through late this weekend.

Looking beyond into early next week reveals ever-increasing forecast uncertainty as Hurricane Polo, currently present a few hundred miles off the southern coastline of Mexico, recurves north into the mid-latitude westerlies. The interaction between Polo and a trough over the Pacific Coastline will be important to the forecast beyond Sunday as it phases with the trough. NBM data from this morning reflects this fact with a 15 - 20 degree spread amongst forecast 25th - 75th high and low temperatures. However, the prevailing average amongst the ensembles is for the resulting upper trough structure to move east across the CONUS alongside a low chance for 590+ dm 500 mb heights to return. Regardless, it is likely still too early to deduce a reasonable forecast into next week until model variability settles down in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

An MVFR deck continues across most of the Mid-South. Model data, typical in these situations, is quite optimistic with clearing this afternoon, but satellite imagery tells a different story. JBR and TUP are on the periphery of the main deck, so these locations will see a period of VFR conditions before low clouds move back in overnight. MEM and especially MKL are well entrenched in the deck and have opted to keep the MVFR deck in place for the most part through midday Thursday. Winds will generally be NE around 10 kts this afternoon, diminishing to 5- 7 kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Wetting rains are unlikely through the rest of the week, but cooler temperatures will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% for the majority of the region. Higher relative humidity values in conjunction with increasing 10 hour fuel humidity levels and light 20 ft winds are expected to keep fire danger low through the forecast. Wetting rains may return to portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee Sunday, which would provide a further decrease in fire danger.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.