textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours will persist daily through the weekend, posing a threat of localized flash flooding.

- There is a low chance for a few strong storms on Monday as a cold front moves into the region.

- A cold front will deliver pleasant, drier afternoons and near-normal temperatures (highs in the mid-80s) starting next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The current surface analysis places a 1012mb low over northern Arkansas, with a warm front extending east through the MO Bootheel, Middle Tennessee, and into Savannah, Georgia. Radar currently shows showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of the warm front, with scattered development to the south. Aloft, GOES East Water Vapor Imagery confirms a warm conveyor belt streaming moisture poleward along the AL and MS border. Today's main convective driver is a negatively-tilted shortwave over the ArkLaMiss, which will slowly dampen and lift northeast over the next 24 hours, helping to push a weak surface low and cold front across the region by Saturday afternoon.

Deep moist convergence will lead to heavy rainfall this afternoon as a moderately unstable airmass interacts with the warm front. Heavy rainfall is expected to be focused along and north of the I- 40 corridor, near the frontal boundary. WPC has placed the majority of the Mid-South in a Slight Risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall this afternoon due to anomalously high PWATs (above the 99th percentile) and subtle upper-level forcing. Effective shear will be weak (less than 20 knots), resulting mainly in slow and disorganized training thunderstorms through the late afternoon and early evening. Overall, the risk of flash flooding remains low.

Saturday is shaping up to be mostly dry across the Mid-South as the front pushes south of the area and upper-level heights build downstream of a shortwave near the Texas Panhandle. Low-to-medium chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are confined to areas along the TN River, with the rest of the area seeing 10% or less PoPs. The front will lift back north on Sunday in response to decreasing heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley, leading to mainly isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to next week, the subtropical ridge will begin to build into the Mid-South on Sunday. There is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on the speed of this ridge build. Nonetheless, upper-level northwest flow may steer a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) into the region on Monday. LREF guidance depicts a moderately unstable air mass in place by early afternoon, with 25 to 35 knots of bulk shear impinging on the Mid- South across west Tennessee. While a few strong to severe thunderstorms are not out of the question, resolving these features beyond 3 days remains difficult; we will continue to monitor the trends.

LREF guidance consistently shows a backdoor cold front building into the region on Tuesday, which will decrease humidity to more comfortable levels. A broad 1024mb surface high will then build into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys through late week, bringing a couple of dry and warm days. Rain chances will return by late week as a few perturbations translate into the Lower Mississippi Valley from a cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula.

AC3

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough extending roughly along a JBR-MEM-TUP line. This feature, along with convective instability, was supporting numerous SHRA and TSRA across the Mid-South airspace just prior to 00Z. As we head through the evening, convective instability and TS potential should diminish, leaving isolated SHRA by 03Z.

The lower atmosphere will remain very moist overnight, under decreasing midlevel cloud cover. At this time, JBR appears most likely to experience fog. To the east, a low cloud deck appears more likely at TUP, MKL and MEM during the predawn hours, which will limit IFR fog potential.

A midlevel ridge axis will approach from the west Saturday afternoon, limiting TSRA potential for JBR and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into early next week, with continued showers and thunderstorms maintaining high fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.