textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated each day through at least mid-week as heat indices between 105 to 111 are expected.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon through Wednesday, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have since died out in the growing surface inversion post sunset. Rain-free conditions are expected to remain through Monday morning. An upper ridge will continue to build in the meantime with 500 mb heights reaching 594+ dm through Monday afternoon. Temperatures will also continue to climb with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Therefore, heat indices will start to climb above 105 F, most prominently in portions of far West TN, northwest MS, the MO Bootheel, and eastern AR where a Heat Advisory remains in effect for Monday afternoon. Areas outside of the Heat Advisory are still expected to see dangerous heat with triple digit heat indices. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible (20% - 30% chance) as diurnally driven MLCAPE rises above 2500 J/kg. Storms may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, as well as providing relief from the heat.

The upper ridge will settle in over the southern CONUS through the rest of the week. Rain chances are forecast to decrease with time, but high temperatures will remain steady in the middle to upper 90s with high humidity. So, expect heat indices in the triple digits each afternoon with areas closer to, and west of, the MS River most likely to experience 105+ F. Therefore, additional heat headlines are expected to be needed through this week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still possible, especially given the poor performance of CAMs beyond 24 hours, which currently show isolated to no convection Tuesday. With this in mind, will wait to issue any more heat headlines until future dates become better resolved with respect to afternoon convection.

While past forecast guidance has suggested that northwesterly flow may reach the region next weekend, ensembles now paint a different picture. Zonal flow, which is currently across the Great Lakes and northern Plains, will continue through the end of the week. With time, the new guidance now shows this flow becoming more northwesterly over the Northeast. This shift east now places the Mid-South squarely under a more amplified ridge and would imply that temperatures may increase further than what we are seeing to start this week. LREF probabilities of heat indices of 105 F or greater already approach 50% or higher next weekend support this new forecast trend. Another consequence of stronger ridging would be a drier forecast with PoPs struggling to get above 10% areawide starting as early as Thursday. In summary, a hot, summer-like forecast is in the works for this week and through next weekend with limited chances for afternoon relief.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Primary concern is TSRA coverage this afternoon. 06Z REFS and HREF depict sufficient lightning probabilities to warrant PROB30 for TSRA as far west as MEM. Individual CAMs exhibit a wide spread in favored TS location and coverage, typical of weak convective inhibition. With that in mind, a PROB30 TSRA has been introduced for all but JBR this afternoon.

No significant aviation weather foreseen after 00Z, with VFR and light southerly winds (7KT or less).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Fire weather concerns remain limited through the period as minimum relative humidity values continue to stay above 40% across the region alongside light 20 ft winds. Limited rainfall chances from isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern Mississippi Monday afternoon, but the region is expected to dry out over the next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.