textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, bringing a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for damaging wind gusts.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily beginning Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Upper air observations continue to show a large upper ridge axis centered over the Atlantic coastline with a trough ejecting into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front currently extends southwest from the Midwest into the southern Plains with a broad area of southwesterly flow extending into the Midsouth. The combination of southerlies and upper ridging has allowed for temperatures to eclipse 90 F Monday. Convection and the strengthening of a surface high over the northern CONUS will kick the front eastward through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to have time to reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s again before the front arrives, which is progged to occur through Tuesday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as it moves into the region. Plenty of MLCAPE (2500 - 3000 J/kg) will be in place by early afternoon just ahead of the boundary. However, the upper trough in the plains will have ejected into Canada by this point, leaving only paltry upper level winds and forcing with less than 25 kts. So, storms may struggle to organize, especially ahead of the front. A branch of the subtropical jet will impinge on the region from the southwest, but the stronger winds are expected to remain above 500 mb, leaving little to no impact on the effective shear. Regardless, current HRRR guidance does display ~900 J/kg DCAPE, supporting a marginal/slight threat for damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms. The hail threat will be muted due to the weak shear and sub-optimal mid-level lapse rates with little to no expectation for tornadoes given near-zero SRH.

Any troughing will decrease in amplitude throughout the southeastern CONUS quickly into Wednesday. The front will then stall somewhere within the region, washing out as upper ridging returns. Temperatures will drop in response to cloud cover and rainfall, bringing highs into the upper 70s and low 80s through the end of the work week. However, the front will not have made a significant dent on the abundance of moisture that has plagued us since last weekend, keeping elevated rainfall and thunderstorm chances in the forecast into next week. Looking at LREF guidance, there is enough agreement regarding QPF that the probability of 3"+ of rainfall exceeds 50% throughout the majority of the region. Severe weather chances are still uncertain as the upper pattern remains at a low-amplitude, but models (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) gradually increase large-scale troughing with a few, smaller waves embedded in the flow. If these features are able to remain in the forecast come Wednesday through Friday, low-end severe chances could materialize with higher effective shear. In summary, a cooler, rainier forecast is expected through at least next weekend with the potential for some severe weather depending on how the upper pattern shakes out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A tricky aviation forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours. Confidence in coverage of SHRAs and TSRAs remains in the 30 to 60 percent range through the period.

VFR conditions will persist through late morning at all sites. A decaying complex of TSRA will move into the region from the NW by early afternoon. Hi-res guidance depicts this activity weakening and becoming scattered at JBR, MEM, and MKL. A trailing cold front will move into the region this evening with a weak surface low tracking NE along it. This will bring another round of precipitation to all sites. TCF guidance suggests that another round of TSRA will affect MEM, MKL, and JBR, mainly after 20/03Z. There is a low to medium chance that CIGs will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at all sites, especially near where the frontal boundary sets up. There is a low to medium chance that lingering SHRAs will persist beyond this period.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Wetting rains will return beginning Tuesday, lasting through at least the end of the week with the potential for thunderstorms each afternoon.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.