textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- A cold front will bring scattered light showers today, with measurable rainfall most likely (40-60%) along and north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty north winds will occur behind the front.

- An elevated fire danger is anticipated across the entire Mid- South on Saturday due to very low humidity and dry fuels.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal next week, with medium confidence for critical wetting rainfall by midweek (Wednesday and Thursday).

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 1038mb high over Saskatchewan, Canada, with a 1005mb low over Kansas City, Oklahoma. An attendant elongated cold front stretches from New York WSW through Indianapolis and back into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Aloft, broad troughing was prevalent across the northern CONUS with an embedded shortwave traversing the Ohio River Valley.

A more pronounced shortwave will dive southeast from Saskatchewan and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Northwest flow will set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley and help push a cold front through the Mid-South Friday afternoon. With limited moisture through the column, QPF remains lackluster. NBM probabilities for 1/10th of an inch are in the 40 to 60% range and focused along and north of the I-40 corridor. The highest probability of precipitation will occur post-frontally due to the anafrontal structure of the boundary and occur in the evening hours on Friday.

The main story will be strong north winds behind the front Friday afternoon. Isobars are particularly tight near the frontal zone with up to a 8mb gradient from northeast Arkansas to northeast Mississippi. The highest confidence for wind advisory criteria remains over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, where 25 mph winds will be common and occasional gusts to 40 mph will occur. A wind advisory has been issued.

Behind the front, polar air will settle into the region through the weekend. Very dry air will be prevalent across the Mid-South on Saturday, with relative humidity values falling into the upper teens and lower 20s. With the lack of recent wetting rainfall and the combination of low humidity and dry fuels, there will be elevated fire danger across the entire Mid-South. Luckily, the winds will be weakening throughout the day, negating the need for a Red Flag Warning. Similar conditions will persist on Sunday, with a 30% chance for another Fire Danger Statement.

The air mass will overturn quickly on Monday, as the subtropical ridge builds north and a warm front lifts through the area. Warm and humid weather will remain over the region all next week. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s each day. LREF guidance depicts the subtropical ridge dampening by midweek and a frontal system moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Although operational models differ on timing and strength of the system, there is medium confidence that the system will deliver wetting rainfall. Any rainfall is critical at this point as persistent drought conditions remain over the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley today with winds veering north today and increasing to 14-18 kts sustained with occasional higher gusts. We are keeping TEMPOs at JBR and MKL as measurable rainfall is more likely to occur compared to MEM and TUP, where confidence is lower and PROB30s seem reasonable at this time. Ensemble guidance indicates a medium to high chance (40-80%) of MVFR ceilings developing later this morning into the afternoon at sites, with conditions improving to VFR conditions by this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front will move through the region on Friday, bringing scattered to numerous showers. Rainfall will be light, averaging less than one-tenth of an inch along and north of I-40. Further south, wetting rainfall appears unlikely. Dry weather will prevail over the weekend, with minimum relative humidity ranging from 20 to 30 percent and elevated fire danger. Humidity will moderate early next week, in advance of rain chances in the middle to late part of midweek.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.