textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire Mid-South through Sunday evening. Additional warnings and advisories may be needed into Monday.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

00Z upper air analysis places a 599 dm high over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper-level high has brought a continuation of the very hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions to the Mid-South into this weekend Late evening temperatures still remain quite warm in the 80s at most locations with surface dewpoints in the 70s.

Another very hot and oppressive day is expected across the Mid- South on Sunday as high pressure remains in place across the region. Surface dewpoints are not anticipated to mix out as much as they did on Saturday with heat index values rising again to 110 degrees or higher during peak heating. Thus, the Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through at least 8 PM Sunday evening. There is a very low chance (<10%) for isolated thunderstorms over portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. However, confidence in occurrence and coverage remains low with convective temperatures at or above 100 degrees.

Latest short-term model trends indicate the upper-level high will begin to retrograde Sunday night into Monday, allowing a weak cold front to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very hot temperatures along and ahead of this front will rise into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. These hot temperatures combined with pooling low level moisture will push heat index values across east Arkansas, and areas east of the Mississippi river generally south of I-40 at or above 110 degrees, and 105 degrees across the remainder of the area. Thus, additional Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings may likely be needed into early Monday evening with model solutions suggesting isolated to scattered convective development will occur mainly later Monday afternoon in a weakly sheared environment. Heat index values may remain elevated into Wednesday above 105 degrees across some locations necessitating additional heat headlines.

Mid to long range ensemble and deterministic solutions indicate better chances for showers and thunderstorms and relief from the oppressive heat will come later in the week into next weekend as a mid-level trough settles in across the eastern U.S. This will bring a return of cooler temperatures towards normals for mid- August.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as high pressure remains over the region. Southwest winds will remain 10 kts or less through the TAF period. CAMs have begun to hint at increased cloud cover and potential light shower activity Monday morning, however, dry air is expected to keep moisture north of MEM at this time.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dangerous heat is forecast to continue through the period with afternoon heat index values exceeding 110 F through Sunday afternoon and up to 110 F on Monday. Fire dangers are still expected to be low amidst minimum relative humidity values between 30% and 40% with light 20ft winds. Expect dry conditions with the potential for a couple, light showers across northeastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee Sunday evening. Otherwise, precipitation-free conditions will continue into the early portions of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.