textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions emerge each day next week in a quiet pattern.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Mostly clear and cool conditions are observed across the Mid- South this afternoon due to broad surface ridging. Expect temperatures just a few degrees below normal today with plenty of sunshine. Moisture content is higher in proximity to a frontal boundary over north Mississippi, which will aid in fog development overnight. The combination of mostly clear skies, nearly calm winds, and low dewpoint depressions will support at least patchy fog late tonight into early Tuesday morning for areas along and south of I-40.

Tomorrow/Sunday will feature the highest chance of rain over the next 7 days as a weak cold front approaches. CAMs all seem to have a different handle on the convective mode; forecast reflectivity seems to range from isolated summertime convection to a QLCS. Given the very weak shear profile and even weaker steering flow, would lean towards the more single and multicellular solution. There is not much in the way of organizational support for upscale growth, so these will likely be some individual short-lived downbursts along the frontal boundary. A few isolated thunderstorms may materialize ahead of the main convection around noon, but timing of this system is looking like 2PM-9PM for the Mid-South. Since this is a fairly progressive system and PWATs are just above normal, expect this to be a fairly tame frontal passage from a QPF standpoint. Storm total rainfall forecast ranges from a tenth to a quarter inch, barring any locally heavy downpours.

After the FROPA Sunday night, we enter a welcomed quiet period. Forecast surface analyses depict a benign pattern to emerge next week. Northwest flow aloft will help keep temperatures on the cool side Monday and Tuesday, hovering about 5 degrees below normal in the mid 70s. We do have a weak frontal boundary moving through on Wednesday, but pre-frontal dewpoints in the 30s and 40s will most likely prevent any precip from actually reaching the ground. Broad upper level ridging moves in midweek and sends temperatures on a warming trend while PoPs continue to decrease through Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Primary aviation weather impact tonight will fog potential at TUP. Hi-res guidance and LAMP indicate probable LIFR at TUP. MKL Hourly MVFR VIS probabilities at MKL are 10-20 percent toward sunrise. Given MKL tendency to for fog, this is enough of a signal to warrant a TEMPO for MVFR VIS.

HREF soundings and LTG proximity products suggest isolated TSRA is likely to occur Sunday afternoon. This is corroborated by recent HRRR runs and the Extended TCF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low over the next few days. Sunday's wetting rainfall will provide beneficial moisture to drought- stricken areas. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent each day next week as a warm and dry summertime-like pattern emerges.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.