textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Gradually increasing humidity will accompany highs in the mid to lower 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions of the Mid-South and will be expanded Wednesday.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances and cooler temperatures late Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will moderate to the low to mid 90s through the weekend into early next week.

- Rainfall totals look to be minimal with the cold front, and a strong to severe thunderstorm is possible.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A transient ridge is centered along the Mississippi River Valley today and will de-amplify considerably over the next 24 hours as it shifts along the East Coast. Despite the de-amplification of the overall longwave ridge, thicknesses will build slightly (~2 dam) over the southeastern US. This feature will extend into the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley. Along with increasing moisture over the Mid-South, these factors will boost heat indices higher tomorrow, necessitating the expansion of the current Heat Advisory. Low 70s dew points should hang on a bit longer in northeast Mississippi, keeping it below advisory criteria (greater than 105F), but the remainder of the Mid- South can expect afternoon heat indices to peak between 106 and 110 degrees. Guidance dew points, namely the NBM, have been a bit high, especially along and west of the Mississippi River. For consistency's sake, shaved a degree or two from this guidance, keeping heat indices below warning criteria (above 110F). The ridge will continue to suppress any convection this afternoon and tomorrow, resulting in dry conditions across the region.

Thursday has the potential to be just as hot as Wednesday, especially along and south of I-40. The ridge will continue to break down on Thursday. Lowering thicknesses and increasing cloud cover late in the day over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee should keep temperatures below advisory criteria (above 105F). Another Advisory may be needed farther south, including north Mississippi, east-central Arkansas, and portions of west Tennessee.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday appears to be minimal at this time, mainly due to weak shear. However, any storms that manage to develop will have the potential to produce strong winds. Unfortunately, rainfall totals associated with the front also appear minimal. WPC's rainfall totals suggest any portion of the Mid-South will be lucky to receive one-quarter of an inch Thursday night through Friday.

Friday should be cooler with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to middle 90s. A weak trough will shift east of the area late Friday. Expect to see a drier, warmer pattern return over the weekend as a weak ridge builds over the Plains then shifts east.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds are anticipated through the period. Winds may gust to around 15 kts on Wednesday.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will continue to trend higher ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect readings mostly in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday. 20 ft winds will remain light through Thursday. Wetting rain returns late Thursday ahead of the front, but totals look minimal at this time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001-002- 007-008-010>013-020-021.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-002-007-008- 010>013-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>053-088>090.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088-089.