textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM today, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for late September.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A 596 dam ridge remains near the ArkLaTex as of Friday evening. This ridge will continue to slowly sink southwest as troughing digs over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the intensity of the ridge, the area wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM tomorrow. The trough will gradually impinge on the ridge projecting heights to fall to around 590 dam by Sunday morning. Sunday, heights are projected to fall below 590 dam resulting in low confidence in needing a Heat Advisory for Sunday. Dewpoints are trending towards the low to mid 60s, but air temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s which brings RH values near critical thresholds (near 20%). It does appear winds will remain light enough to alleviate wildfire danger, but with ongoing drought, there is a marginal concern for any small grass fires.

A subtle synoptic change is favored for early next week as the aforementioned trough targets a weak cold front at the Mid-South on Monday. This will bring isolated to scattered PoPs into the forecast during the afternoon and evening, but appreciable rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Probabilities of receiving 0.25" of rainfall are less than 20%. Subtle ridging will build in quickly behind the boundary, but so far guidance does not depict an anomalous ridge as we are currently experiencing.

Wednesday could be the first hint at 'relief', though still 8-10 degrees above normal for the end of September. NBM percentiles have a large spread, 9-12 degree differences between the 25th and 75th percentile; so most of the guidance is favoring a slight cooldown. This seems to be due to troughing being projected set up across the eastern CONUS. If the current forecast pans out, we will be 10-15 degrees cooler during the day than what we have been experiencing the entire month of September.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Surface high pressure will remain centered just east of the Midsouth today. Winds could reach 10KT at JBR, where a modest pressure gradient coincides with a deep mixed layer. Otherwise, light winds and VFR will prevail across the Midsouth through the next 30 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A strong upper level ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will maintain near-record late-September heat and largely rain-free conditions. While minimum relative humidity (RH) values are expected to hover in the 20-30% range, light 20-foot surface winds under 10 knots will prevent critical fire weather conditions. However, 10-hour fuels will continue drying down toward 10% under intense daytime heating. Fog potential remains low across the region, restricted mainly to brief, patchy morning fog along low-lying river basins.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.