textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Unseasonably cool and dry weather will prevail through the first half of the week, with potential marginal fire weather concerns on some days.

- A significant warm-up is expected late week into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s.

- Long-range outlooks favor a return to a wet pattern with above-normal precipitation chances beginning early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Sunny conditions currently prevail across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the 70s. Temperatures will continue to warm into the afternoon with dewpoints in the 40s and high temperatures on track to reach the low 80s across the area. Another clear and calm overnight is expected tonight, with low temperatures falling into the mid to upper 50s. With generally low dewpoint depressions, clear skies, and calm winds across northeast MS and along the TN River near sunrise, I would not be surprised if some patchy fog develops. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly mix out following sunrise.

Generally northwest flow aloft will persist through Thursday, with a weak shortwave passing through during the daytime on Wednesday. Wednesday's highs will be able to climb above-normal with dry conditions prevailing, with temperatures in the upper to mid 80s. Following this weak frontal boundary, high temperatures will be closer to normal in the upper 70s to near 80 on Thursday. By Friday, subtle upper-level ridging will begin to develop over the region with this ridge becoming more pronounced by the beginning of next week. As such, a much warmer and somewhat more humid airmass will move into the Mid-South through the weekend. High temperatures will likely be at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal through this period, with values in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. So far this year, Jonesboro is our only climate site to reach 90 degrees, so our remaining sites may finally reach that value by Monday. Near the end of the current forecast period and into the middle of next week, an upper-level low will move off of the Rockies with the potential to bring PoPs back to the region. The current 6 to 10 day outlook from CPC does have above-normal precipitation favored, so we will continue to watch things for our next meaningful precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

High pressure will remain over the region through the TAF period, allowing for VFR and light winds to prevail through the entire forecast. Any wind is expected to be easterly to southeasterly up until 00z before dropping to VRB/calm through the remainder of the period.

AMD NOT SKED at JBR due to missing METAR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Marginal fire danger concerns will arise Tuesday afternoon through at least Thursday afternoon, with minRH values falling below 40 percent. MinRH values will likely dip below 30% for all of the Mid-South Tuesday and Thursday afternoons. On Wednesday afternoon, some locations across eastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN could see values fall below 25 percent. 10-hr dead fuel moisture will be around to just below 10 percent through this period, but recent rainfall and light winds today will supersede the need for any products. On Wednesday, an RFD may be needed if these trends continue given the low RH values and relatively low fuel moisture content.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.