textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Much cooler weather is in store across the Mid-South this weekend with below normal temperatures. Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will likely fall into the upper 30s and low 40s.

- Periods of gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with occasional wind gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon.

- Dry weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South overnight in the wake of today's cold frontal passage, setting the stage for a noticeably cooler and drier weekend across the region. The gusty winds that occurred behind the front will diminish some overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. This influx of cooler, drier air will drop overnight low temperatures into the low to mid-40s, bringing a crisp start to the weekend. Below normal temperatures will be common across the Mid-South Saturday with highs in the 60s as skies gradually clear.

The primary concern in the short term will be the potential for patchy frost as the center of the surface high settles in Saturday night into Sunday morning. With clear skies, nearly calm winds, and a very dry airmass in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plunge into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees across the Mid-South. HREF probabilities paint a 40 to 60 percent chance of temperatures falling to less than 37 degrees across parts of West Tennessee, the Missouri, Bootheel, and eastern Arkansas.

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will gradually warm. The work week will begin with high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s, warming slightly each day with upper 70s to mid/upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. No precipitation is expected over the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Post-frontal low clouds will continue to push south into the Mid- South overnight. Given the latest upstream trends and model guidance, there is a low to medium confidence that cigs will drop to MVFR overnight. Targeted the most likely period for lower cigs at each site with a TEMPO. Otherwise, conditions will be prevailing VFR. North winds have diminished to around 10 knots this evening and will become gusty once again Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Despite elevated winds across parts of North Mississippi and eastern Arkansas, afternoon minimum relative humidity values will generally stay in the 30 to 40 percent range, falling shy of elevated fire weather conditions. By Sunday and into next week, while minimum relative humidity values will remain below 40%, wind speeds will generally remain light. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.