textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- A cooler and drier airmass arrived across the Mid-South. High temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to middle 80s through tomorrow.

- Temperatures will rebound to the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday, with rain chances increasing after mid week.

- We are monitoring tropical activity that may bring heavy rainfall to the Mid-South Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A summertime pattern is in place across the CONUS consisting of a broad trough across the plains and eastern US and a weak ridge along the West Coast. Transient surface high pressure will shift out of the Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley today resulting in clear and dry conditions across the Mid-South. Midday temperatures in the area are in the 70s with pleasant dew points in the 50s to low 60s. Afternoon high temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal today, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s under mainly clear skies.

A cold front that pushed across the Midsouth yesterday has stalled across central Mississippi and Alabama. This feature will remain stationary, or lift slowly north today and tonight. East Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and West Tennessee should remain dry. Closer to the boundary, some enhanced cloud cover is expected over north Mississippi and a few showers or thunderstorms are possible late tonight and tomorrow, mainly south of a line from Tupelo, MS to Clarksdale, MS. Also in-line with the summer theme, the tropics are beginning to show signs of life. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a system over northeastern Mexico, with a 30 percent chance of development over the next few days as it potentially reemerges over the western Gulf. This system is expected to be the main influence on our weather across much of the deep South over the next several days. However, another cold front is also expected to approach northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel early Thursday. Forecast guidance differs in both the path and the strength of the tropical system, thus its impacts on the Mid-South are uncertain. Nevertheless, we can expect a wetter pattern Thursday and Friday. In the meantime, temperatures will trend a bit warmer each day tomorrow through Thursday. By Thursday, expect high temperatures to be close to normal, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The cold front approaching from the north is expected to move into north Mississippi and interact with the incoming tropical moisture as the system approaches Thursday. This boundary is likely to act as a delineation zone between the heavier tropical rainfall to the south and the lighter, more showery rain farther north. Given the uncertainty in the tropical system's track and strength, portions of north Mississippi could see swaths of 4 inches of rainfall as a potential high-end outcome, while areas along and north of the I-40 corridor should see less widespread heavy rain. However, any convective enhancement along the front could still result in heavy rainfall. A Flood watch may be needed for portions of the Mid-South after midweek.

Friday night through the weekend, a weak ridge will build over the Plains, translating to northwest flow across the middle Mississippi River Valley. Tropical moisture will shift off to the east as surface high pressure will build back over the Mid-South. As a result, drier conditions are expected. Abundant sunshine will help us dry out, but temperatures will trend warmer. High temperatures over the weekend are expected to be in the middle to upper 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the period ahead of a cold front sinking south and a warm front lifting north.Increased moisture introduces a potential for showers and MVFR ceilings at TUP. The cold front sinking south will provide enough lift to raise rain chances at JBR. Spatial coverage appears limited in the early time of this pattern, so PROB30s were included at those two terminals. MEM and MKL are likely to remain dry this cycle, but prob30s may be warranted here in subsequent forecasts.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Recent wetting rains and elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will return by the end of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.