textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Isolated early morning showers will be possible over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi early this morning. Otherwise, fair weather will prevail today, with afternoon highs around 5 degrees above normal, accompanied by moderate humidity.

- Thunderstorms chances will increase on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, over eastern Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. The main threat will be damaging winds, with secondary threats of large hail and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue through Thursday, around the periphery of a 595dam 500mb ridge centered over the desert southwest and southern high plains. We'll remain in an unsettled pattern until the southwestern upper ridge expands into our region this weekend, bringing hot and dry weather to the Midsouth.

Late evening KSRX radar showed scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just east of a shortwave over eastern OK. This activity was moving southeast. Further east, modest cloud top cooling was noted on GOES IR over northern AR. Scattered light showers may edge into eastern AR, southwest TN and northwest MS toward morning. NBM thunder probs appear overdone given the weak instability, and have been dialed back thunder in the gridded forecasts.

Thunderstorms appear on track for late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The global models bring a shortwave trough through the Midsouth Wednesday morning, preceded by predawn showers and a few thunderstorms. Most HREF members, including the HRRR, bring a second round of storms in from the northwest Wednesday afternoon and evening. The upper features associated with this second round appear to be more subtle, perhaps tied to an MCV and aided by daytime instability. REFS guidance depicts less coverage of storms Wednesday afternoon, relative to the HREF. In either case, there will be some question about MLCIN in cloud cover remains from storms earlier in the day. 00Z REFS lightning probs indicate a greater potential for additional storms in the predawn hours Thursday. RRFS soundings depict CAPE near 1000 J/kg rooted above a shallow surface inversion. This will be monitored as additional guidance arrives.

Dry conditions appear in store in time for Thursday evening's lunar eclipse, though some clouds may remain over northeast MS.

We'll trade the unsettled weather of northwest flow for upper level ridging as we head into the weekend. By Sunday, the upper ridge will flatten and expand eastward through the lower MS River Valley, reaching heights of 595dam at 500mb over the Midsouth. Despite lower sun angle and shortened daylight in late August, highs will prevail in the upper 90s over most of the Midsouth from Saturday through early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A few showers are currently developing across the Mid-South. Northwest flow across the Mississippi River Valley will keep at least a minimal chance of showers across the region during the day today, and coverage may increase a bit as temperatures warm. However, coverage should remain minimal before a shortwave approaches later tonight. The current expected track of the shortwave would result in the highest chance of precipitation at JBR and MEM late tonight, but exact timing and placement is uncertain. Included VCSH and PROB30s for all TAFS toward sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent near the Tennessee River today. Humidity will increase tonight, with some fog possible before storms arrive Wednesday morning. Additional wetting rainfall will be possible Wednesday afternoon. Hot and dry conditions appear likely by the weekend, extending into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.