textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Slightly cooler conditions will be in place through Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Additional rain chances return for Wednesday through Friday, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and location of showers and storms.

- The upcoming weekend will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the mid to upper 90s by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

An unseasonably cool day is unfolding across the region as of 11:30 AM with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Northwest flow aloft combined with northerly surface winds will not allow temperatures to warm considerably this afternoon with highs expected to peak in the mid 80s. Mostly cloudy skies will take over this afternoon as cirrus streams near a warm frontal boundary over the ArkLaTex concurrently as a thick stratus deck stretches from an MCS over Oklahoma.

The aforementioned MCS will continue to slowly dive southeast through the overnight hours and reach the Mid-South early Wednesday morning. The RRFS depicts a swath of 250-500 J/kg across southeastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi. While not an abundance of instability, it is enough to be supportive of a strong to severe thunderstorm or two. Shear does taper off (<30 kts) as you inch further east into Mississippi. There is enough uncertainty in the event that the MCV can hold together, so the Marginal Risk for severe weather remains appropriate.

The MCV will bring showers and thunderstorms for most of the morning hours with coverage becoming more isolated by the afternoon. Typical, summer type single cell thunderstorms could occur after the MCV is free of the area. While damaging winds could occur in the morning due to the MCV, heavy rainfall leading to flooding will be a concern during any showers or thunderstorms. Rather saturated soils and PW values in excess of 1.5" will allow any storm to be an efficient rainfall producer. Nonetheless, damaging winds and flooding due to heavy rainfall are the primary concerns tomorrow.

A warm front will fuel heat and humidity conditions to return on Thursday as highs creep back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. This may spark a few WAA showers and thunderstorms, but there is less than 15% probability of severe weather ingredients being present. There will be plenty of instability with temperatures in the mid 90s, but lack of shear will lead to typical summertime isolated thunderstorms each day through the rest of the week, most likely to occur during the afternoon hours. Into next week, a large area of high pressure will encompass most of the southeast and hot and humid conditions will prevail into early July.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. The primary exception is expected Wednesday morning at MKL, where light fog may reduce visibility to MVFR levels.

Early Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm complex is forecast to move from the northwest to the southeast, with potential impacts at JBR and MEM. Due to moderate uncertainty regarding the timing and intensity, a PROB30 group has been included in the forecast rather than a prevailing mention. While VFR conditions remain the overall expectation, there is moderate confidence that intermittent MVFR ceilings may occur with these storms. Winds will persist from the south at 4 to 6 knots throughout the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Recent wetting rains will preclude fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. MinRH values above 40% and daily bouts of showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.