textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- Following overnight lows in the 20s, temperatures will warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday afternoon.

- Increasing clouds will bring scattered showers Wednesday, in advance of a Pacific cold front on Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as this front moves through. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

- Cool and dry conditions will prevail Friday, following an extended period of mild temperatures that will persist over the weekend, through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Moderating temperatures remain the primary story through Thursday, following our recent 2-3 day Arctic cold snap.

Southerly low level return flow will prevail through Wednesday, under zonal flow aloft. Low stratus clouds that lifted from TX into the Ozarks late Monday were evidence of moisture embedded in this southerly flow. This low level moisture axis will lift into the lower MS River Valley on Wednesday, ahead of low amplitude midlevel trough moving through the OH and Lower MS River valleys. There should be sufficient moisture for a few showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, as this upper trough passes.

More substantial height falls will occur Thursday, associated with a deep closed upper low lifting through the Midwest. These height falls will accompany sufficient low level instability to support isolated thunderstorms over the Midsouth Thursday afternoon. Severe storms are not expected, with LREF joint probabilities less than 10 percent for 200 J/kg CAPE and 30 knots of deep layer bulk sheer.

Arctic surface high pressure will follow the upper low through the Midwest, but the southern extent of the cold front appears to at least be partially backed by a Pacific high pressure moving out of the Rockies. This airmass will nonetheless bring our daytime highs on Friday down by about 15 degrees from Thursday. Morning lows Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s, respectively. The dry air will warm efficiently under full sun- especially when accompanied by southerly return flow on Saturday.

Dewpoints will warm to the 50s by Sunday, and continue through most of next week. With persistent southerly surface flow and low amplitude ridging aloft, mild temperatures and relatively narrow diurnal temperature ranges (for December) appear in store for much of next week.

PWB

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A stratus shield is expanding across east Arkansas and far northwest Tennessee. MVFR cigs are already in place near JBR and should spread across MEM after sunrise. Guidance is not in good agreement regarding the amount of clearing today, but with an approaching weak shortwave trough, inclined to lean toward a cloudier(MVFR) solution. Winds will remain southerly, generally 5-10kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 30 percent range over most of northern Mississippi and West Tennessee today. Thereafter, moderate humidity over Arkansas will spread through all of the Midsouth on Wednesday. A few light showers will occur Wednesday, followed by better chances of wetting rainfall on Thursday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.