textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected each day this week with a generally benign weather pattern.

- Temperatures will approach 90 degrees this weekend across much of the Mid-South, ranking amongst the warmest temperatures so far this year.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A beautiful and bit cooler day is progressing across the Mid- South with some high clouds and temperatures spanning the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will continue to warm into the afternoon, with things on track to reach the mid to upper 70s. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue to develop Tuesday and remain in place through Thursday, keeping the Mid-South in a dry and benign weather pattern this week. High temperatures will rebound a bit closer to normal on Tuesday with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. By overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a weak shortwave will push through the mid-west with a dry frontal boundary expected to move through the Mid-South during the daytime on Wednesday. Temperatures through the daytime will likely be able to creep even higher than they were on Tuesday before this front arrives, with highs in the low to mid 80s. A cooler airmass will briefly circulate into the area on Thursday behind the frontal boundary, with high temperatures falling back to near-normal.

By Friday, the upper-level trough that has kept us in our relatively benign pattern will finally begin to drift further east. Subtle upper-level ridging will begin to build through the region through the weekend, likely keeping most of the area dry. WAA will begin to surge on Friday through at least Monday. This will allow temperatures to warm into at least the upper 80s, with many locations potentially pushing into the low 90s. Locations along and west of the MS River have a 50 - 70% chance of reaching 90 degrees by Friday, with more widespread (60% +) chances Saturday and Sunday. This would be the first 90 degree reading for many locations this year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure will result in VFR conditions for the period. NE winds around 10 kts this afternoon will go light and variable overnight, eventually becoming more easterly tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1141 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dry conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the week. MinRH values will generally be below 40%, with some locations falling below 30% on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As such, some borderline fire danger concerns may arise. Winds through the period should remain below 10 mph throughout the week as well.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.