textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Dry and pleasant weather will finish out the weekend with high temperatures in the 70s.

- Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low 80s.

- Wetter conditions will arrive on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms forecast through Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Calm weather once again greets us today as high pressure remains centered over the south-central CONUS. A large area of troughing persists over the northeastern CONUS and eastern Canada, responsible for the cooler weather after pushing a cold front through the region last week. Highs are expected to only climb into the 70s with dry conditions through this afternoon. A shortwave trough will move south across the Midwest on the western side of the long-wave trough, moving towards the Ohio River Valley through tonight. Lift ahead of this feature will be enough to form showers north of the region, but precipitation is not expected to make its way into the region through Monday morning.

A warming trend will take place through the middle of next week as surface high pressure pushes off to our east, allowing for southerlies to advect warmer air back into the region. These winds over portions of northeastern AR and the MO Bootheel could approach 25 mph, potentially warranting a Wind Advisory Monday afternoon. Aloft, the long-wave trough over the eastern CONUS will retrograde northward into Canada with a shorter-wave trough axis extended west into the northern Plains. At the same time, a cutoff low will begin to move east through the Rockies, overspreading the southern CONUS in a broad area of 50+ knot, zonal flow by Tuesday. In response, a lee surface low will develop in the high plains, further aiding in the advection of higher theta e into the Mid-South. A cold front, associated with the northern troughing, will swing south and interact with the moisture beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Given the change in air mass, precipitation is expected to accompany the arrival of the front Tuesday in the form of shower and thunderstorm potential. Instability appears to be on the weaker side with most deterministic guidance failing to produce MLCAPE values above 500 J/kg across the region. Furthermore, the presence of a mid-level capping inversion will also provide enough CINH to limit thunderstorm coverage but an otherwise moist profile will support showers along and behind the front. Recent LREF guidance supports this area being the main precipitation regime through Tuesday. So, frontal rains with isolated thunderstorms appear the most likely outcome for Tuesday with rain accumulations between 0.50" - 0.75" by Wednesday.

The short-wave trough in the Rockies will continue east, ejecting into the Plains, on Wednesday with the surface low moving closer to the region. Rain is expected to continue throughout the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the front moves further south. By late morning, models continue to indicate that 500 - 1500 J/kg MUCAPE will reside throughout the region. Thunderstorms will then develop along the front and last through Wednesday until the boundary makes its final push out of the area. There exists some uncertainty on the exact position of the cold front regarding how far south it will get through the day. The mean solution currently brings the front to the TN/MS border, marking a southward trend. Regardless, anywhere that will remain south of the front is expected to have the best chances at severe weather as 50 - 60 knots of effective bulk shear overspreads the unstable air mass. At the moment, wind and hail appear to be the main threats. Another potential threat is localized flash flooding as 90th+ percentile PWATs (1.5" - 2.0") and storm motions parallel to the front provide a combination of high rainfall rates and training storms. Guidance has trended down with regards to the overall rainfall amounts, but models in this range may be failing to capture localized, convective-enhanced rainfall. So, for now a large swath of 1" - 2" is forecast for the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame with locally heavier amounts where convection can manage to train.

The surface low will continue east along the frontal zone into Thursday, kicking the moisture and precipitation out of the region as it passes to our east. Large-scale upper troughing to our north will bring northwesterly upper flow through the remainder of the week, keeping cooler air and high pressure over the region. Highs will fail to reach 70 across the majority of the Mid-South Thursday, gradually warming into next weekend. The majority of ensemble members keep the cutoff low to our west through the end of the week, but manage to bring it closer towards the region into next weekend. However, model spread begins to balloon by Saturday regarding the timing and amplitude of the wave. So, precipitation chances do increase next weekend, but changes to the forecast are expected through the work week on exact amounts and thunderstorm probabilities.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Confidence is high for VFR conditions continuing for the next 30 hours. A weak shortwave will cross northern portions of the airspace overnight keeping S/SW flow elevated at JBR, MEM, and MKL. Winds and gusts will climb higher tomorrow afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an upper level trough.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Minimum relative humidities will drop near or slightly below 35% through the remainder of the weekend, but fuel moisture and light 20 ft winds preclude any fire weather concerns. Humidity and rain chances will increase early next week as a cold front approaches.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.