textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Low relative humidity values will result in elevated fire danger over through the work week; please exercise caution and heed local burn bans.

- Temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 80s by midweek with unsettled weather potentially returning late next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface observations indicate that the reinforcing cold front is slowly sinking southeast. Dewpoints behind this boundary have dropped into the upper 40s and low 50s with values in the 60s in its wake. This front should clear the area by sunrise resulting in a cool, fall-like morning with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

Temperatures will warm nicely in the dry air mass with plentiful sunshine on Monday, using max temperature values from the 75th percentile of the NBM. With the warming of temperatures and extremely dry air, expect minimum RH values to plummet each afternoon. Some areas, especially across north Mississippi, may fall below 25% or even 20%. This is a critical threshold for fire weather, so please monitor conditions if you plan on burning if you are not under a burn ban. Expect this trend to continue through at least Wednesday as quasi-zonal flow dominates around 500mb.

On Thursday, the flow aloft gets slightly disrupted as moisture tries to climb up the Delta, but will struggle due to the battering ram of dry air aloft. Temperatures will heat up a bit, back into the upper 80s and lower 90s for the end of the work week. The 12Z run of the ECMWF has backed off quite a bit on the influence of a tropical disturbance on the Mid-South late this weekend, while the GFS remains robust with this system. The LREF is also following suit with the ECMWF, so this will be something to monitor.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR and north/northeast winds will prevail through the next 30 hours, as dry continental high pressure spreads into the Midsouth.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will generally be around 30% with local areas around 25% or less. Warmer weather will enter the forecast by Wednesday, leading to a sharp decrease in relative humidity values through the end of the week, dropping to 25% or below. This will mark the return of elevated fire danger. Light 20-foot winds and recent wetting rains are expected to curtail a higher threat of fire danger.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.