textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Pleasant afternoon temperatures are anticipated through Monday with highs spanning the upper 70s to upper 80s.

- Warming temperatures return by midweek with heat headlines probable by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

As of 11 AM, a cold front has almost cleared the region with Aberdeen, MS still prevailing a southerly wind and 80 degree dewpoint. Elsewhere, strong subsidence is occurring with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s with brisk northerly flow. Temperatures should not warm too far from these current temperatures due to strong mixing and post frontal stratus continuing to move in from the NW. North Mississippi may squeak out slightly above 90 degrees, but the front is moving very quickly and should clear the Mid-South by 1 PM.

Behind this boundary, unseasonably cool and mostly dry conditions will prevail through midweek. A normal high temperature for the first week of August is near to slightly above 90 degrees, which currently is not a forecasted high until at least Tuesday. NBM does have a cool bias with very dry airmasses, but with dewpoint values in the 60s, it will certainly feel significantly cool for this time of year. A few stray showers could develop along the Tennessee River Valley as the trough continues to pull away, but confidence is low in accumulation values. Perhaps a few sprinkles up to a tenth of an inch, but the dry air aloft will prohibit downpours.

After Tuesday, upper level ridging will emerge near the Baja of California and slowly traverse east. A few shortwaves may spew out ahead, with low end diurnally driven PoPs added to the forecast. QPF is very uncertain due to the intensity and longevity of the dry air aloft, but showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the embedded waves. The ridge will heat things back up gradually from Wednesday through the end of the work week. By Friday, medium chance probabilities return to the Delta region for heat index values meeting or exceeding 105F (Heat Advisory criteria). Those probabilities begin to expand geographically north and eastward for the remainder of the next weekend. Until then, enjoy the cooler temperatures!

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Moderate confidence in flight categories through the period. Satellite imagery shows a vast expanse of stratus over north Arkansas and west Tennessee, driven by persistent low-level moisture trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion. While a few breaks are possible this afternoon near MEM as the inversion weakens slightly with diurnal heating, high confidence exists in redevelopment overnight. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to saturate at all sites as the boundary layer cools. Midday showers tomorrow will be driven by a weak passing shortwave, but limited moisture return suggests these will stay northeast of MEM, JBR, and TUP. Included VCSH at MKL prior to 18Z to account for this timing. Cigs will likely be very slow to improve tomorrow as the inversion remains stubborn.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Fire weather concerns are minimal this period due to recent rainfall and light 20 ft winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.