textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Tuesday.

- Significant heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South by mid-week.

- Daily high temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s with heat indices climbing above 100F by mid-week, likely requiring heat headlines.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An upper low is situated over Nebraska with a trough extending south into the Southern Plains late this morning. Lift and moisture associated with this system have been pushing into the Mid-South this morning with scattered showers developing across the area. Very muggy air has returned to the region with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Instability will continue to increase this afternoon with SBCAPEs ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear is fairly weak with 0-6km values of around 25 kts mainly along and west of the MS River this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms may occur, mainly in the Marginal Risk area (Level 1 of 5), which covers eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. However, can't rule out a strong to severe storm anywhere in the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. Locally heavy rainfall, along with isolated flash flooding, is also likely with PWs above 2 inches. Considered a Flash Flood Watch, but not confident enough in amounts and timing to justify at this time. Storms will wind down during the evening hours with loss of heating, though with the upper trough approaching, isolated storms could occur anytime overnight.

Hi-res models are fairly consistent with developing a MCS over southeast KS and southwest MO later tonight. This MCS will move ESE toward the northern portions of the Mid-South in the morning, likely weakening but probably sending out some outflow boundaries. The boundaries will likely reignite later in the day as instability increases once again as temperatures will climb into the upper 80s with a few 90 degree with dewpoints in the mid 70s. The better chances for a strong to severe storm will be across the northern half of the Mid-South, generally north of the TN/MS line, where afternoon SBCAPEs will climb over 2500 J/kg. Once again, locally heavy rainfall along with isolated flash flooding is also likely with PWs above 2 inches.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will start to wane by Tuesday as the upper trough slowly exits the region. The best chances for storms on Tuesday afternoon will be along the TN River. The bigger weather story starts to become the building heat as upper ridging strengthens over the Lower MS Valley toward mid-week. Highs will climb above 90 by Tuesday with persistent southerly flow continuing to advect very muggy air into the Mid-South with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat index values above 100F by Tuesday, and heat products may be needed by mid to late week.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week and may linger around the Mid-South this weekend, bringing rain chances back to the area along with slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps a bit of relief from the heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid- South through Monday evening. While this activity will be scattered in nature, there is increased confidence for thunderstorms directly impacting terminals this afternoon and evening. Overnight, coverage and intensity will decrease so opted to keep VCSH in at all sites. Additional TS chances will emerge by mid-morning Monday. The latest guidance is hinting at widespread IFR CIG development by 09Z. These ceilings should return to MVFR by midday as winds begin gusting to 20 kts.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.