textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms exists into the evening across the entire Mid-South. Damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall are the primary threats, with a secondary threat for a brief tornado.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

We've had a windy start to the day with sustained winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph as the mid-level pressure gradient continues to tighten across the Mid-South. Ahead of a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, we're looking at mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 70s, and dewpoint temperatures in the 60s. A mid-level low pressure system, currently centered over eastern Kansas, continues to churn closer to the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of it, an elongated cold front, extending north to south bisecting the CONUS, continues to push further east. As this front pushes further east, into our area, a line of thunderstorms will begin impacting the Mid-South. Digging into the parameter spacing, forecast soundings are hinting at around 300-500 J/kg of SBCAPE, around 400 J/kg of DCAPE, around 25-30 kts of effective shear, and mid and low level lapse rates <6.0 C/km. If this messy line of thunderstorms can overcome very meager instability and persistent cloud cover, the primary severe threat will be damaging winds. A secondary threat of a quick spin up tornado or two also exists amidst looping hodographs with updraft helicity values generally less than 100 m2/s2.

As this line crosses the Mississippi River, instability begins to wane slightly as CAPE fields become further weakened and the sun begins to set. Localized flash flooding will become more of a threat heading into the evening hours with PWAT values around 1.6- 1.8", around the 99th percentile for this time of the year. Most of our heavy rainfall will fall within a 12 hour span with forecast amounts generally between 1-2". Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out as latest NBM probabilities have a 50-60% chance of exceeding 2" across much of the Mid-South. In the event that flash flooding does occur, we ask you to never enter flooded roadways with a good rule of thumb to turn around and don't drown. This line of storms is expected to clear our forecast area by sunrise tomorrow as the aforementioned cold front pushes east into Middle Tennessee.

Drier and cooler air will begin to quickly filter in behind this front as cool surface high pressure sets in. Highs will be generally in the lower 70s tomorrow and Thursday with lows in the 40s Thursday morning. By the end of the workweek, a potent upper- level shortwave will begin to push into the Mississippi Valley with an attendant reinforcing cold front. A cool, dry airmass will be associated with this secondary front resulting in little to no precipitation. Instead, much cooler temperatures will follow behind it. Some early morning frost is anticipated Saturday morning, mainly over West Tennessee and across much of the Mid-South Sunday morning. As far as high temperatures go this weekend, we're looking at readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Enjoy the cooler air while it lasts as the latest 8-14 day CPC outlook has us leaning (40-50% chance) above normal heading into mid-November.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings are present at the start of the 00z cycle. A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will move northeast across the airspace. Instability is limited overall, and with the rain ahead of the frontal boundary itself, confidence in thunderstorms directly impacting the terminals continues to lower. Heavy rainfall, resulting in IFR visibilities, is the primary concern this evening. Will keep a close eye on trends and the heavy rainfall axis. Guidance is always too fast to prevail VFR conditions; there may be intermittent periods of VFR, but expect MVFR ceilings to persist for much of the period.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast this afternoon, lasting into tomorrow morning. While precipitation chances will dwindle by tomorrow afternoon, moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the weekend. Gusty 20 ft winds will persist through the afternoon hours, ahead of a cold front. Behind this front, 20 ft winds will go light and generally less than 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.