textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected each day this week with a generally benign weather pattern.

- Temperatures will approach 90 degrees this weekend across much of the Mid-South, ranking amongst the warmest temperatures so far this year.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A generally benign weather pattern is setting up for the upcoming week as an upper-level ridge, currently anchored over the Four Corners, inches slowly eastward. A broad trough over the eastern CONUS this evening will be reinforced by a northern stream shortwave trough midweek, maintaining dry, northwest flow aloft across the Mid-South. A shortwave ridge axis will be situated along the MS River Valley by the end of the work week, but the progression of this ridge signifies a potential pattern change heading into early next week.

Backing up and looking at the finer details, a shortwave trough rounding the base of the longwave trough has promoted large-scale forcing for ascent over the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and evening. This has been responsible for the latest crop of showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-South. This feature will translate east overnight, but we will see occasional stratiform rain with embedded convection through sunrise Monday morning.

Generally rain-free conditions are anticipated Monday afternoon through Friday within this northwest flow aloft regime. A midweek system may bring some rain to the OH Valley on Tuesday, but this is likely to remain well to our north. The air mass will be unseasonably dry, with precipitable water flirting with the 10th percentile of climatology (near or even below 0.50"). This will allow larger-than-normal diurnal temperature ranges through the work week, with near to slightly above normal highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be below normal, dipping into the 50s each morning, with some areas (especially those toward the TN River Valley) cooling into the upper 40s.

The dry air will promote low relative humidity values, but wind speeds will generally stay in check. Current 10-hr fuel moisture content is 9-11% across the CWA, so we'll be watching for some marginally elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will peak this weekend as the upper-level ridge axis passes and southwest flow aloft promotes increasing southerly flow and warm advection. Temperatures at 850 mb are progged to warm as we move into the weekend, supporting surface temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Jonesboro is the only official climate station for WFO Memphis that has recorded a 90-degree temperature this year, but that may change this weekend. The latest NBM probabilities for 90+ highs exceed 50% across most of the area, with some locations in eastern AR or West TN topping out at a 75% (or greater) chance.

The aforementioned pattern shift will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR prevails at all terminals with showers around both JBR and TUP. Shower chances will continue to diminish with time through 09z - 12z at both sites as shower coverage decreases. Dry conditions and VFR will then prevail through the rest of the period at all four terminals with gusty northeasterly winds. Winds will quickly drop to near VRB or calm after 00z Tuesday through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A few lingering showers, and perhaps a stray thunderstorm, will linger through sunrise Monday, but rain-free conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week. Unseasonably dry air will settle over the Mid-South during this time frame, with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range. Wind speeds will generally remain below 12 kts with 10-hr fuel moisture of 9-11%. This will limit fire weather concerns to only marginally elevated through the next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.