textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday afternoon as additional thunderstorms move through the Mid-South.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- A warming trend will bring highs back into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday with rain chances returning by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to make its way south through the region, remnants of convection that spawned earlier Saturday afternoon. Current expectations are for these showers and storms to move farther south through the night with a chance for gusty winds. Rainfall rates will also be heavy as RAP guidance progs PWAT values between 2.0" - 2.3" across northern Mississippi into Sunday morning. Another line of storms has also developed across north-central Arkansas. Some of these storms could make their way southeastward into eastern Arkansas and portions of West Tennessee, posing a threat for gusty winds and additional heavy rainfall.

Taking a broader look across the CONUS, the persistent, long wave troughing over Ontario has yet another shortwave along its western periphery over the Midwest. This wave has been enough to already develop a second MCS in Kansas and Missouri that is expected to travel south and east through the next several hours. Forecast MLCAPE/MUCAPE ahead of the line will reach between 1500 - 2000 J/kg, even in the dead of night, which will act to maintain convection along the outflow boundary. There is some concern that the current round of convection will have "worked over" the air mass throughout the Mid-South, leading to lower instability and a lower coverage of thunderstorms this morning. Regardless, the sheer humidity of the leftover air mass will allow for some instability to be present to work with. Any convection is expected to remain only marginally severe as weak and boundary- parallel effective shear inhibits storms from organizing along the outflow as it surges south. CAMs bring this line into northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel as early as 09z - 10z and lasting into the early afternoon with lingering showers behind it. Lastly, high temperatures will be somewhat muted, only reaching into the mid 80s Sunday afternoon.

Into early next week, the longwave troughing over eastern Canada will remain as most guidance refuses to move it anywhere. This trough will dominate the forecast through the entirety of next week with multiple waves emanating from the northern Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. Surface high pressure will then build across the Plains, reinforcing the front that will pass through the region Sunday and pushing tropical moisture out of the Mid- South. Highs are only forecast to reach into the upper 70s Monday with highs warming into the 80s by Wednesday. Low (less than 30%) chances of afternoon showers will exist over northern Mississippi, especially along the front.

The warming trend into Wednesday will primarily be a product of southerly return flow off the Gulf after the surface high slides to our east through the middle of the week. These same southerlies will bring the tropical air back to the region. The same stubborn trough over eastern Canada appears likely to remain an highly influential part of the forecast through the end of the week, even retrograding towards the northern Plains. Therefore, a continuation of shortwaves passing through the central CONUS. With tropical moisture back in place, shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to rise dramatically into Thursday and Friday as one of these shortwaves moves over this air mass and a front passes through the Mid-South. The exact extent of any severe weather will depend heavily on antecedent convection Wednesday and early Thursday as well as the position and evolution of the wave. For now, only strong storms and heavy rain are expected, but changes in the forecast could bring a higher chance for severe weather in the coming days. Ensembles are in agreement that the front associated with this wave should make it through the region Friday, cooling down the forecast into next weekend with isolated afternoon showers.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into the Mid-South along a frontal boundary, with minor impacts imminent to JBR. Confidence is still fairly low with the progression of SHRA/TSRA as the frontal boundary pushes through the area today. Given the uncertainties, have continued to highlight as PROB30s for MEM, MKL, and TUP with the most likely timeframe. TAF sites will quickly return to VFR once the frontal boundary pushes through. Current S/SW winds will become gusty by mid-morning and continue through the afternoon. Winds will shift to NW behind the frontal boundary, calming back below 7 kts after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the rest of this weekend and into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.