textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s through this weekend. Highs will increase slightly next week, up to the mid 80s by next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Late evening surface analysis places a weak surface low near central Kentucky. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show rain has mostly moved out of the Mid-South, though a few isolated showers and thunderstorms linger over portions of northeast Mississippi. Cloudy conditions prevail with late evening temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Recent rainfall over the past 24 hours combined with light to nearly calm winds may result in the development of fog overnight. The greatest potential is along and west of the Mississippi River where some partial clearing is anticipated. There is a low to medium chance (20-50%) of visibility dropping below 1 mile overnight, particularly along and west of the Mississippi River. We will be monitoring short-term trends for a potential Dense Fog Advisory if conditions warrant.

Short-term model trends show a period of limited, diurnally driven convective activity on Saturday, with mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over north Mississippi. This quieter period will quickly come to an end as a shortwave embedded within southwest flow aloft moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a return of greater convective coverage. Temperatures this weekend will average near normal with highs mainly in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

Unsettled weather will continue well into next week as long term deterministic and ensemble model solutions are in agreement and show a series of shortwaves traversing the Lower Mississippi Valley. Diurnally enhanced convection is anticipated with shear expected to remain relatively weak. Localized rainfall will be the threat with any stronger storms as precipitable water values approach or exceed the 95th percentile around 1.9 inches.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A stalled boundary continues to meander southeast of MEM. Isolated TSRA occurring near TUP will diminish in a few hours while persistent IFR/MVFR stratus blankets the entire airspace. Fog development appears to be a concern due to saturated surfaces and light and calm winds. JBR and MKL appear most favorable for LIFR visibilities. The boundary will clear the area by tomorrow afternoon, lifting all terminals back to VFR before the next shortwave sets up into Sunday morning.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast over the next seven days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the area.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.