textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A largely dry weather pattern will persist through at least the weekend with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances return as early as Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Friday was a near rinse and repeat of Thursday with much of the Mid-South struggling to reach the 80s thanks to cloud cover. Clouds have mostly eroded out leaving a pleasant night with current temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. With pockets of clearing skies amidst a shallow low-level inversion, patchy fog is likely across portions of the Mid-South, especially in low- lying areas. Any fog that does develop will quickly lift shortly after sunrise thanks to mixing.

We remain sandwiched between two upper-level systems, a ridge currently centered over the Texas Gulf coast and an upper-level low centered over the North Carolina coast. This ridge will continue to broaden moving into Friday and Saturday leading to a slight warming trend, pushing temperatures just above normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Come late Saturday, this ridge looks to get shoved a little further south and begins to break down as the aforementioned upper low (nor'easter) pushes into the northeast nudging us here in the Mid-South back into upper-level northwest flow. A few embedded shortwaves could give us enough lift for a few pop-up thunderstorms Sunday and into early week. Though appreciable rainfall to help alleviate ongoing drought conditions is not expected. Temperatures will continue to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s through early week.

Heading into midweek, uncertainty increases with the overall weather pattern. Ensembles remain in decent agreement with an upper-level trough phasing with a surface low, but timing and overall strength of these systems will be greatly influenced by Hurricane Polo in the Pacific. We could finally see some appreciable rainfall with this next system, but this will be greatly dependent on Polo's influence. There is a pretty mentionable (15-20 degree) temperature spread beginning Wednesday through the end of the seven day period. ENS continues to favor a cooler solution with highs in the 70s and 80s whereas the GEFS solution favors a warmer trend with highs in the upper 80s come Wednesday. Bottom line, this remains a wait and see game, but one thing's for sure, we do not foresee record-breaking highs to round out our week. Details will be ironed out in future forecast packages as solutions become more in line.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Outside of overnight patchy fog potential at MKL/TUP, VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the TAF period. Some guidance does hint at intermittent drops to MVFR overnight, however, confidence remains too low to mention in TAF. Northeast winds will remain light over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum. Cooler temperatures will bring relative humidity levels above 40% through Friday. Minimum relative humidity values may fall below 40% in some areas this weekend, but light 20ft winds should alleviate concerns. Our next shot of rainfall looks to arrive by midweek at earliest.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.