textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Warm and dry conditions will persist today, as high clouds from Hurricane Isaias spread into the Midsouth. Another warm day is in store, with highs spanning the mid 80s to low 90s.

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact much of the Mid-South on Saturday with primary impacts including wind gusts up to 40 mph and periods of heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch has been issued for many areas east of the Mississippi River.

- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the area by early Sunday. The weather pattern will turn dry and warm by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Another dry and warm day is in store for Friday, before the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift through the region on Saturday. While the remnant surface low will likely track near the MS/AL border, an expansive wind field will rotate around north and west the surface low, affecting areas as far away as northeast AR. This wind will likely be the main impact for the Midsouth. NBM ensemble mean sustained winds appear reasonable, averaging 20KT Saturday morning. Gusts will be the primary concern, with a band of 925mb winds near 50KT over north MS mid-morning Saturday. 35KT (40mph) appears to be a good gust potential for much of Midsouth, east of the MS River. Briefly stronger transient gusts cannot be ruled out ahead of any heavy rain bands over north MS Saturday morning. A Wind Advisory will likely be issued later today/Friday.

QPF remains largely unchanged from earlier forecasts. Isaias will move relatively quickly through the region. Despite very dry soils, rain rates may exceed the ability for absorption. A Flood Watch remains in effect for a good portion of the Midsouth east of the MS River.

As Isaias exits early Sunday, a midlevel ridge will move into the lower MS River Valley. The ridge will amplify to 592dam at 500mb over central MS, and promises to bring a return of late summer- like high temperatures as we approach mid-October.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all sites for much of the TAF period. Late tonight, the remnants of Isaias will track north along the AL/MS state line and result in deteriorating Cigs and strengthening winds. Introduced PROB30 for showers at TUP after 05Z, then MEM and MKL at 10Z. Prevailing showers are expected at TUP before sunrise and at MEM after 13Z. Stronger east to northeast winds will accompany the onset of showers and CIGS will lower to MVFR levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Very warm and dry conditions will return today, with stronger easterly winds than what we've seen over the past several days. Minimum relative humidity will range from 20 to 25 percent will prevail north of I-40, with 25 to 35 percent forecast to the south.

Widespread wetting rainfall and strong winds will spread through the Midsouth on Saturday, as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift through the region. Warm and dry conditions will return for the early and middle portions of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TNZ019>022-048>055-088>092.