textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Cooler and calmer conditions across the Midsouth continue, with isolated to scattered storm chances in the afternoon into evening near the Tennessee River.

- The unsettled pattern continues through midweek, maintaining a localized threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- Temperatures will trend warmer by late week as precipitation chances decrease and upper-level ridging strengthens, bringing the potential for heat-related headlines.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Mostly quiet conditions exist at 11 PM. A few stray showers are ongoing, but will end soon, as a surface low rotates around the base of a deep upper trough.The attendant low has stretched a cold front across much of the Mid-South, which has kept most of the deeper convection south of the CWA border. Temperatures will cool efficiently overnight, as skies clear and winds go light, dropping into the upper 60s in various locations across the region. This could promote fog development, especially if cross- over temperatures are met, but model guidance is inconsistent regarding the potential for fog vs low stratus. If low stratus does develop, it will take a few hours into the daytime to erode, which would prohibit temperatures from warming too quickly in the morning.

A longer cool morning would help suppress lapse rates from becoming too steep and result in just a few isolated afternoon showers, similar to Sunday, that rotate around the base of the trough. The trough will finally begin to push southward on Tuesday. As a result, coverage of showers will increase. The best coverage on Tuesday will be along and east of the Mississippi River. Wednesday will also trend higher in shower coverage as PW values rise above 2". Despite coverage and moisture content increasing midweek, the 90th percentile QPF amounts through Wednesday evening are an inch or less. Some areas across northeast Mississippi could see values as high as 1.5".

Thursday will begin the slow emergence of a pattern shift. While still slightly influenced under broad troughing over the SE CONUS, a large upper ridge will cover the Central Plains. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be likely each afternoon, generally near the TN River Valley. By Friday, the Mid- South will begin to feel the effects of the upper ridge and the best chance at widespread triple-digit heat indices returns. A few areas may experience triple digit heat indices on Thursday, but confidence increases on Friday and Saturday. In the short term, enjoy the cooler temperatures before the heat and humidity return.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Extensive high cloudiness was noted on GOES IR imagery late Sunday evening. These clouds continue through most of the night at TUP, limiting radiational fog potential. MKL will be less affected by these clouds, but may see scattered midlevel clouds - not enough to rule out fog. The 06Z TAF will retain a TEMPO for MVFR VIS prior to sunrise.

No significant aviation weather is expected for Monday, other perhaps some brief post-sunrise MVFR CIGs at TUP and MKL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South throughout the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will generally remain above 40 percent, precluding any significant fire weather issues. Additionally, persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will ensure fuel moisture levels remain well-supported, mitigating wildfire risk. No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated through the upcoming week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.