textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place today, with primary threats of damaging winds and flash flooding.

- Dangerous heat indices of up to 109 are expected to occur across northern Mississippi and portions of eastern Arkansas this afternoon, particularly along the Mississippi River Delta.

- An unsettled pattern continues through early next week maintaining risks for additional heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Hot and muggy conditions are present across the Mid-South this morning and will continue throughout the day. Temperatures are already in the low 90s as of noon today and are expected to climb into the low to mid-90s, especially along and south of I-40. NBM and short-range guidance both show that heat indices will likely eclipse the triple digits in these locations. Portions of eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi are expected to have their heat indices peak above 105 F this afternoon, prompting a Heat Advisory through 8 PM CDT tonight.

Alongside the suffocating heat and humidity, an upper trough is visible on satellite imagery and will gradually move south through the day. The 12z LZK radiosonde observations show somewhat steep lapse rates (> 7.5 C/km) between 700 mb - 500 mb and that instability will rise through the day. By early afternoon, CAMs (WoFS/HRRR/REFS) show that MLCAPE values are forecast to range anywhere from 2000 - 3500 J/kg. As the trough moves into the region from the north, gradual storm intensification will occur along a line extending from northeastern Arkansas into West Tennessee. Effective shear will be out of the west between 20 - 30 knots meaning that some storm organization is possible. However, with DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg and storm outflows likely to orient parallel to the shear vectors, convection will be primarily outflow-dominant. Some north/south oriented portions of the line today may have a window of opportunity to tap into the bulk shear and produce damaging wind gusts, which is expected to be the primary threat for severe weather today. As such, SPC has a Slight (level 2/5) Risk for severe storms this afternoon. The storms will remain anchored to the outflow and will traverse much of the CWA through this evening.

Some flooding potential will still exist as these storms develop today. Convection will have 2.00" PWATs to tap into, creating high rainfall rates. Portions of West Tennessee have already experienced both riverine and areal flooding in the past few days owing to heavy rains last week. With saturated soils and elevated river stages, it will not be difficult for flooding to occur. Additionally, if thunderstorm outflow remains slow enough, eastward storm motions will promote training along the outflow, leading to the potential for corridors of heavy rainfall. Luckily, HREF/NBM LPMM output does not appear to place any of these corridors through the region, but does have pockets of higher QPF across West Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Therefore, the Flood Watch will continue through midnight Sunday.

The upper trough is forecast to weaken today while gradually tracking south tomorrow. Thunderstorm outflow will act as a makeshift cold front in the absence of broader synoptic features, cooling the region off. Temperatures will likely remain confined to below 90 F across the majority of the region, but expect muggy conditions to continue as dewpoints stay in the 70s. The upper trough is expected to keep lapse rates high enough to produce afternoon convection in the presence of tropical moisture. The most likely area for deeper convection and heavier rainfall is expected to be across northern Mississippi along the remnant outflow boundary. Expect localized damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

A similar forecast to Sunday will likely remain through much of next week as the upper troughing stalls over the Mid-South. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through at least Wednesday before upper ridging begins to build back over the region. Showers and storms could still occur in such a humid air mass, but confidence is coverage will likely be considerably lower to that of this weekend. Ensembles are confident that the ridge will continue through the end of the forecast with a warming trend expected into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High-resolution guidance consistently indicates -TSRAs developing this afternoon and tracking southeast across the airspace. TEMPO groups have been included for the periods of highest confidence regarding convective activity at the terminals. Lingering -SHRAs are expected to persist, primarily impacting MEM and TUP overnight. There is a 50-60 percent chance of MVFR ceilings developing at MKL and TUP, with a slightly lower probability for MEM. Additionally, there is a 30 to 60 percent chance for further shower activity near MKL and TUP tomorrow afternoon.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal across the Mid-South through this weekend as relative humidity levels remain comfortably above 40 percent. Daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms will also contribute to maintaining favorable fuel moisture levels. Given the lack of dry, windy conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055.