textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Tuesday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for areas near the Tennessee River through Tuesday evening.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South through late week. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday, and prolonged extreme conditions will likely necessitate additional heat headlines through the end of the week.

- Relief is expected by Friday as increased shower and thunderstorm activity persists through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Current radar shows light to showers tracking across NW Tennessee, with the remainder of the area dry and humid. Overnight lows will remain balmy, dropping only a few degrees from current upper 70s/low 80s readings. Aloft, water vapor imagery highlights an MCV along the KY/Middle TN border, associated with a weak shortwave trough.

Upper-level heights build across the Mid-South from the west, establishing weak NW flow along the Tennessee River. While high- res models suggest remnants of a Kansas MCS could approach West TN by Tuesday morning/afternoon, QPF guidance is inconsistent. Consequently, confidence in the Flood Watch coverage has trended downward, though a 50% threat remains.

The primary concern for Tuesday is excessive heat. With highs in the low-to-mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid-70s, heat indices will reach 105-107F along and west of the Mississippi River. The Heat Advisory remains in effect from late morning through early evening. Ensure vulnerable populations have access to cooling.

Mid-South will remain locked in an early-season heat wave, with LREF guidance indicating 500 mb heights exceeding the 97th percentile. Expect at least three days of 105F heat indices for areas along and west of the Mississippi.

The upper ridge may begin to break down by Thursday afternoon as flow turns zonal. A surface low moving through the Great Lakes should push a cold front into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday. While the exact frontal progression remains uncertain, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage from Friday through the weekend should provide some relief from the peak heat intensity.

AC3

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

There is currently some SHRA/TSRA to the north/northwest of the area that is expected to fizzle out as it approaches and moves further into the Mid-South. Thus, confidence in any TSRA has continued to decrease and have removed mention from terminals. Additionally, a swath of low cigs with some patchy fog has developed across eastern portions of the area, with impacts currently to IFR/LIFR at TUP. These conditions are expected to improve over the next few hours. Guidance continues to hint at some SCT MVFR cigs developing through mid-morning mainly across MEM and MKL, but confidence is too low to go prevailing at this time. Otherwise, southwesterly winds continue, up to around 10 kts with occasional gusts at JBR through the daytime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-010-011.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>052-088-089.

Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ003-004-021-022-054-055.