textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas north of the TN/MS border through 7PM.

- A warm-up is expected Friday and into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s.

- Long-range outlooks favor a transition to a wet and above normal precipitation pattern returning week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak cold front will continue to push across the Mid-South through the afternoon hours, allowing dry air to filter into the region. Elevated fire weather concerns will exist on the backside of the front as relative humidity values fall to around 25 percent and surface winds gust to 20 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 7PM for areas north of the Tennessee / Mississippi border. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated on Thursday due to surface winds remaining less than 10 mph. Instead, expect slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will move into the Mid-South. As a result, hot and humid conditions will return and persist through the upcoming weekend. A few showers and thunderstorms may impact areas near Kentucky late Friday into Saturday. However, the potential for this is low (less than 30%). The remainder of the weekend will feature above normal temperatures with a few areas reaching 90 degrees by Sunday.

Long range guidance continues to hint at a wet and unsettled pattern at the beginning of next week as a shortwave moves across Central CONUS. The latest LREF guidance places a 15% chance of overlapping severe weather ingredients Tuesday afternoon and evening. Specific details remain uncertain, but the beginning of next week is expected to be wet and unsettled.

ANS

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 30 hours. A few lingering north wind gusts should drop out over the next hour or two. Winds will shift northeasterly by daybreak at around 6 kts or less before shifting more easterly around 00Z.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 7PM for areas north of the Tennessee / Mississippi border. Relative humidity will fall below 30 percent this afternoon and surface winds will gust to around 20 mph. Elevated fire danger will cease on Thursday as surface winds remain below 10 mph. The remainder of the forecast period will feature increasing humidity.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.