textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- A reinforcing cold front will produce below average temperatures this weekend, featuring highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Portions of West Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and north Mississippi have a 50 to 70 percent chance of freezing temperatures on Sunday morning.

- Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Post frontal low clouds cover a large part of the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys early this afternoon. The cloud deck has pushed to near the TN/MS line. The latest RAP indicates that the deck will gradually push south into north MS and then gradually clear out later tonight from the northeast. High pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will build across the Mid-South this weekend leading to cool and dry conditions. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will result in temps dropping into the 30s across northern parts of the Mid-South later tonight. The latest NBM shows a chance (30-40%) of freezing temps across parts of West Tennessee Saturday morning.

A 1024 mb surface high be centered over the region by Saturday night with chilly temps. Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with plenty of sunshine. Excellent radiational cooling conditions Sunday morning will likely result in a freeze across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee and north Mississippi.

The weather pattern remains fairly benign through the week. High pressure will remain over the area into the middle of the week and temperatures will gradually moderate with highs warming toward 70 degrees and lows in the 40s. A weak upper level disturbance moving through during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe could bring a shower. A deep trough developing over the eastern CONUS toward Thursday will send a cold front and perhaps a few showers through the Mid-South before ushering in cooler temperatures and mostly dry weather to close out the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Satellite and METAR observations currently show an expansive, MVFR stratus deck occupying much of the central Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. CIGs have entered the region and will bring MVFR impacts to MEM/JBR/MKL through the early afternoon. Diurnal mixing is expected to prevent CIGs from reaching TUP. Current expectations are for CIGs to gradually rise into MVFR later this afternoon. There is some uncertainty on the longevity of the CIGs into tonight. Most guidance currently has the stratus scattering out, but local climatology suggests that CIGs may be here to stay longer than advertised. Therefore, have maintained SCT035 into tonight, but there is potential for VFR/MVFR CIGs to return to the forecast after 00z. Otherwise, expect northerly winds between 5 - 10 knots through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure will build across the area this weekend. Cool and dry conditions will prevail. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20- ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.