textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm above normal this weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 Sunday night, and area wide Monday night.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Evening upper air analysis places a broad upper-level trough encompassing most of the continental U.S. with an upper-level ridge located over the Pacific Coast near Baja California. Late evening surface analysis shows a 1018 mb surface high located over the northern Gulf Coast while a cold front stretches from New England back through the Ohio Valley, southern Missouri, and back into the Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies are prevalent across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the middle to upper 50s.

The aforementioned weak cold front will briefly drop into the Mid- South overnight and quickly retreat back north as a warm front on Saturday. This will bring a return of warm, above normal temperatures back into the 70s across the Mid-South this weekend. Some locations south of I-40 will approach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Sunday.

An upper-level trough over the northern Rockies will deepen as it moves into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface cyclogenesis will occur over northern Missouri and Illinois Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with a cold front extending south to the Lower Mississippi Gulf Coast. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front will result in sustained winds increasing to at least 20 mph with medium to high confidence (50% or greater chance) of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday into Sunday night.

Confidence in severe thunderstorms continues to increase across the Mid-South for late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as the deep upper-level trough drops into the region and becomes negatively tilted, and an associated strong cold front drops into the region. Impressive mid-level height falls will begin spreading into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Impressive kinematics will be in place, including favorable upper-level divergence from a 120 kt jet streak and a 50 kt 850 mb low-level jet advecting slightly higher low-level moisture into the region. This environment, coupled with moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates, surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, and 0-1 storm relative helicity values increasing to 300 m2/s2, suggests a forced line of showers and thunderstorms will move quickly through the Mid- South starting late afternoon and continuing into Sunday evening. Damaging winds are the main threat, which could be widespread. Large hail and embedded tornadoes remain as secondary threats. Confidence is low (20-30% chance) for a dusting of snow across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee if there is any residual moisture left behind the strong cold front.

Much colder, below normal air will filter in behind the strong cold front for early next week, with a widespread freeze a near certainty across most if not all of the area Monday night as temperatures drop into the 20s. Warmer temperatures will return again by late next week as an upper-level ridge begins to spread into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 30 hours. Southerly winds will begin to increase tonight ahead of a strong cold front. LLWS was introduced at MKL and JBR as guidance has shifted slightly further north with the strongest winds at FL020. Thunderstorms will likely be added in the next cycle ahead of the line of storms, but for now, just a wind forecast.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% east of the Mississippi River on Saturday and 40-50% west. Fuel moisture remains high following Wednesday's rainfall. This increased moisture will mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday night, followed by much colder temperatures for early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.