textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- High temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to low 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect on Wednesday from 11 AM to 8 PM for portions of the Mid-South.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the 90s through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A large 597 dam upper ridge dominates the southern states this evening. This feature will hold strong on Wednesday with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. Southerly winds will continue to feed in humid air with dewpoints in the lower 70s across much of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 am to 8 pm on Wednesday for most of the Mid-South except northeast Mississippi and southeast West Tennessee where dewpoints and temperatures will be slightly lower.

The upper ridge will weaken some on Thursday as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front toward the region. Before any associated rain arrives, temperatures will have a chance to climb well into the 90s, and another Heat Advisory will likely be needed on Thursday. With the upper ridge in place, the front will weaken as it struggles to push south. As a result of the weakening system and the general upper ridging across the region, expect QPF amounts to underwhelm. The LREF depicts a 20 to 50 percent chance of one quarter inch or more. A few strong storms could occur mainly later Thursday along the Kentucky and Missouri borders, but the lack of significant shear will limit any severe potential.

The upper ridge will re-strengthen during the weekend into early next week, and temperatures will remain well above normal. We cannot rule out the possibility of more Heat Advisories over at least part of the area. There is a low chance of diurnal thunderstorms each day as well. The medium range continues to look hot with the stubborn upper ridge prevailing over the region and the 8-14 day temperatures remaining well above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light S/SE winds will increase to S winds 8-11 kts today with a few gusts possible at JBR, then decreasing to 6 kts or less tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will continue to trend higher ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect minimum relative humidity values mostly above 40 percent on Wednesday and Thursday. 20 ft winds will remain light through Thursday. There is a 40 percent to 70 percent chance of a wetting rain Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves into the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-002-007-008-010>013-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>053-088>090.