textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide through today as heat indices in excess of 105F are expected. The Heat Advisory has been extended to portions along and west of the Mississippi River for Sunday as well.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through much of next week, though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue through our holiday weekend with an areawide Heat Advisory in place across the entire Mid-South through 8PM today. This past week's 595dam ridge will continue to deamplify east heading into early next week as weak troughing continues to push over our area from the west. Beginning tomorrow, daily high temperatures will edge closer to climatological norms with readings in the lower 90s as a weak cold front dips into the Middle Mississippi Valley. An uptick in convective coverage is also anticipated tomorrow as shortwave troughing continues to push into the Upper Mississippi Valley. However, as we remain in this summertime pattern, overall coverage will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Due to this sparse coverage and dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s, today's heat advisory has been extended for areas along and west of the Mississippi River, where moisture pulling is expected to be maximized tomorrow.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances, peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours, will exist today and into next workweek as the aforementioned ridge continues to deamplify and peak daytime heating occurs. Digging into parameter spacing for today, we're looking very similar to the past several days with around 4,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km, a microburst composite around 8-10, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and practically no shear. With hardly any synoptic support, any strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening will be diurnally enhanced with heavy downpours, as PWATs are around 2.1", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year, and damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk is in place for areas along and west of the Mississippi River today. Keep this in mind with holiday festivities this evening.

As previously mentioned, convective coverage is expected to be slightly increased tomorrow as shortwave troughing continues to push east towards the Mississippi Valley. In accordance with forecast soundings, tomorrow, we do look to finally have some effective shear, on the order of around 25 kts, with around 2000 J/kg of SB and MLCAPE, PWATs around 2.1", DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates around 5.8 C/km. The best parameter spacing and overall coverage looks to maximize mainly east of the Mississippi River. Once again, damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours will be the main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into early evening.

As we move through next workweek, weak troughing will continue to push over the Mississippi Valley as a subtropical ridge begins to build over the southern Rockies. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal with highs in the low 90s. Though, as moisture remains over the Mid-South, due to embedded shortwave perturbations, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are anticipated to remain. Triple digit heat indices will likely be witnessed through much of next week. With a northwest flow regime, daily shower and thunderstorm chances will remain each day through at least midweek. Depending on how far east the aforementioned subtropical builds will greatly influence rain chances in the latter half of the workweek as northwest flow could be shoved further east, past the Mid-South.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Recent radar trends show convective activity beginning to gradually diminish across the area. The PROB30 will be continued at TUP for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, mainly rainfree conditions anticipated for the remainder of the night with a potential for patchy fog to develop at MKL and TUP overnight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday, especially during peak heating warranting PROB30 groups.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally light . Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012- 020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009- 013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>003-019-020- 048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ004-021-022- 052>055-090>092.