textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Temperatures will rebound to the upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday, accompanied by an increase in humidity.

- Tropical activity is being monitored, with the potential for heavy rainfall across the Mid-South on Thursday and Friday; while wind impacts are not anticipated, heavy precipitation is expected.

- Unsettled conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week as a cold front stalls over the region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico with a 60% chance of further development over the next 48 hours. The track of this system, combined with a cold front associated with strengthening northwest flow across the Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will be the primary drivers for Mid-South weather over the coming days.

Current analysis shows northwest flow over the Rockies and a broad trough across the eastern CONUS. West-northwest to near- zonal flow persists across the Middle Mississippi Valley, while surface high pressure dominates the interior Southern U.S. Remnants of a surface front linger over central Mississippi and Alabama, maintaining enhanced cloud cover over southwest Tennessee and north Mississippi. Further north, skies remain clear along and northwest of the I-40 corridor. Temperatures are mild, ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s, with afternoon highs expected to reach the mid-80s. Dew points in the 60s are maintaining comfortable relative humidity levels. Tomorrow, a deepening surface low over the Texas Panhandle will strengthen southerly winds over the Mid-South, particularly west of the Mississippi River. Sustained winds may reach 25 mph in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest Tennessee, with gusts exceeding 30 mph. Consequently, temperatures will trend warmer, with highs reaching the low 90s under dry conditions.

Indirect impacts from the tropical system may begin Wednesday night into Thursday. Recent guidance has shifted the track slightly southward, likely confining impacts to areas south of a Tupelo-to-Coffeeville, MS line. However, an approaching cold front will provide a more widespread threat of rain for the rest of the Mid-South. Moisture pooling ahead of the front will boost precipitable water values above 1.75 inches by Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, with totals potentially exceeding two inches across northeast Mississippi.

The tropical system's influence will shift east by Friday as the cold front moves into central Mississippi. Any reprieve will be brief, as the front is forecast to return northward as a warm front on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region from the southwest starting Saturday, persisting through early next week. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows in the mid-60s to mid-70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail for all sites the rest of the day. The main point of uncertainty is ceilings early Wednesday morning at MEM; HREF members and MOS guidance diverge significantly on the solution (some steady at 3.5 kft, some completely tanking ceilings to LIFR, and some with no ceilings). In the absence of a clear signal, opted to go with a persistence forecast for MEM but will continue to monitor for trends. Closer to the surface boundary at TUP, low ceilings (likely LIFR) are more of a given. As the pressure gradient in between two systems tightens on Wednesday, expect gusty south/southwest winds up to 30 kts, mainly at JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Recent wetting rains and elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will return after midweek and continue through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.