textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across most of the Mid-South. Damaging winds is the primary threat, with a secondary threat for a tornado, and localized heavy rainfall.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air expected to filter in by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water Vapor satellite trends and this morning's upper air analysis places a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. with a trough centered over the Rockies. Latest surface analysis shows a surface low over eastern South Dakota with a trailing cold front stretching southwest into southeast Colorado and New Mexico. Southerly return flow on the backside of high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast is transporting low-level moisture up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Late morning temperatures are in the 60s to lower 70s.

This mild southerly flow will result in mild temperatures across the Mid-South this afternoon in the 70s with lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The aforementioned upper-level trough will move into the Plains on Tuesday. A tightening pressure gradient associated with the surface low and approaching cold front will result in elevated and gusty south winds especially along and west of the Mississippi River. Thus, a Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel from 8 AM to 3 PM Tuesday.

The upper-level trough and associated cold front will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Short term CAMs suggest a few warm advection rain showers mainly west of the Mississippi River during the day but confidence remains too low to include in the forecast at this time. The main concern will be with the convection that develops upstream and moves into the Mid-South beginning late Tuesday afternoon, then spreading across the remainder of the area into Tuesday night. Favorable forcing and decent mid-level height falls will spread across the area during this time. A messy mostly linear convective mode is expected across the area with limited surface-based instability up to around 300 J/kg at best with relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Model soundings with the associated hodographs indicate some low level curvature with 0-3 km storm relative helicities approaching 300 m2/s2, supporting some embedded circulations within the convective line, especially over north Mississippi Tuesday night. Damaging winds will be the primary threat if any stronger winds can mix down to the surface, with a secondary threat of a tornado. Localized heavy rainfall will also be a threat as precipitable water values will be around 1.7 inches. (99th percentile for early November)

Drier air will filter in behind the front by Wednesday with temperatures remaining relatively mild until late this week when deterministic and ensemble model solutions show a couple of mid- level shortwaves rotating through the eastern US with a secondary cold front bringing much cooler temperatures to the region for the upcoming weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. NBM probabilities show a medium chance (40-50%) chance of minimum temperatures at or below 35 degrees mostly across the favored locations of West Tennessee both Sunday and Monday mornings. These cooler temperatures, and light winds may result in the development of some frost. Frost freeze headlines have ended with the end of the climatological growing season.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR cigs currently linger at JBR, otherwise improvements to VFR are expected overnight. Some prefrontal low cigs will begin to arrive by mid-morning, with some drops to MVFR expected once again. The majority of any SHRA/TSRA activity will likely hold off until near the end of the current period of JBR and MEM, and after the current period of MKL and TUP. Gusty, SE winds are expected, with wind speeds increasing overnight and gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kts throughout the day on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

No fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as moisture will remain across the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by the second half of Tuesday through about midday Wednesday. While precipitation chances will dwindle thereafter, moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.