textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Below normal temperatures are forecast Friday through the weekend.

- An areawide freeze along with heavy frost will occur on Saturday morning with lows spanning the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Dry conditions are anticipated over the next 7 days, likely worsening the current drought.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Broad upper level troughing continues to engulf eastern CONUS today while areas out west remain influenced by upper level ridging. Given this synoptic layout, the Mid-South sits in prime position for reinforcing frontal passages. As such, the next boundary will impact the area this afternoon. Cool and dry air will filter in behind, allowing overnight lows to span the upper 20s to mid 30s. Much cooler conditions are anticipated Friday through the weekend as highs stay in the low to mid 50s. An areawide freeze is forecast Saturday morning. Areas in west Tennessee will see the chillest temperatures as lows dip into the upper 20s. Below normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

On Sunday, an upper level low will develop east of the Rockies and trek southeast. The track of this system varies between deterministic guidance with the ECMWF favoring a more northerly placement of the low. Regardless of track, precipitation will be dissuaded by the presence of dry air. A few drops may make it to the surface in the Mississippi Delta Sunday night. However, no appreciable rainfall is forecast. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of next week, likely worsening the current drought. Otherwise, expect next week to be pleasant with highs returning to the 60s by midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A high pressure to our west and a low over the Ohio Valley will result in NW winds throughout the day today. As atmospheric mixing diminishes later this evening, the gusts will also subside. Mid-level clouds are expected across western TN and northern MS due to a shortwave moving through our area. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist thanks to the high pressure we are currently sitting under.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

20 ft winds will remain elevated through Friday as cool and dry air filters into the Mid-South. Despite a noticeable drop in dewpoints, minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 30 percent through the period. As such, fire weather concerns are not anticipated.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.