textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat continues, with an areawide Heat Advisory remaining in effect through Saturday.

- Heat index values will frequently exceed 100 degrees, and limited overnight cooling will significantly increase heat stress.

- Rain chances will remain limited well into next week with no relief for the developing drought conditions across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The 12Z upper-air analysis features a 596 dm upper-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S today. This has resulted in a continuation of hot and dry conditions across the Mid-South. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Edouard is located near the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Noon temperatures are in the 90s across the entire area with surface dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Another hot afternoon is expected across the area with highs in upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Observations over the past 24 hours continue to highlight a high bias with NBM dewpoints today as drier air has been mixing to the surface. Thus, the dewpoints for the next 24 hours have been adjusted downward accordingly to better reflect trends. While forecast heat index values have trended lower than initially expected, they will still reach advisory criteria of 105 to 106 degrees in many locations.

Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected to persist into the upcoming weekend with the remnants of Edouard expected to remain displaced to our south and west. Humidity is expected to slowly rise during this period with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees. Thus, the Heat Advisory is expected to remain in effect through at least 8 PM Saturday. Overall shear is expected to remain weak through the period with confidence remaining low (< 20% chance) for isolated convective development occurring during peak heating.

Long-term model trends indicate the upper-level ridge will retrograde west into the upcoming weekend. This will allow for a slight reduction in the hot temperatures by late weekend with rain chances remaining low at best well into next week as the upper-level ridge reestablishes itself over the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will remain as high pressure dominates over the region. Increased Gulf moisture has resulted in a very isolated chance of showers this afternoon into early evening, however, confidence was too low to include at any terminal. Light and variable winds will prevail across all TAF sites over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Persistent ridging will lead to a continuation of hot and mainly dry conditions into the next weekend. Enough humidity will remain to keep minimum relative humidity values above 30%, but some areas may still drop below 40% into next week. 20 foot winds will also remain below 5 knots across the region through much of the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.