textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, mainly near the Tennessee River and across northeast Mississippi.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s through this weekend. Highs will increase slightly next week, up to the mid 80s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A weak surface low pressure area was situated just southwest of Memphis at 15z with a warm front eastward roughly along I-40. A weak, negatively titled, mid-level trough was also pivoting through the Lower Mississippi Valley, providing additional lift. Showers are widespread along and north of the surface low and warm front across northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee, becoming more scattered toward the TN/MS line. This surface low will track northeast along the lifting warm front, into Kentucky this evening with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continuing along and north of the surface low track. Across the warm sector, south of the low track, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Their intensity will be modulated by the amount of instability, which is dependent on the amount of clearing that occurs. Some breaks are pushing into north Mississippi this morning. Instability will be on the increase this afternoon with MLCAPEs likely reaching 1000-1500 J/kg across northeast Mississippi and northward along the TN River. The higher low-level shear values will have moved off into AL by this afternoon, along with the low- end tornado threat. A few storms that develop across the warm sector this afternoon could become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. An isolated flash flooding threat will also continue with PWATs over 1.8 inches across the region.

As the surface low and mid-level trough both pull away this evening, patchy fog may develop across the area. We will move into a slightly quieter period for much of Saturday as PWATs fall below 1.5 inches. Some diurnally driven activity may still occur on Saturday, but the overall coverage should be much less than today. Any break will be short-lived as the moist southwest flow aloft continues and additional upper-level disturbances push into the area Saturday night and Sunday. PWATs will climb back above 1.8 inches, and the isolated flash flood threat will re- materialize. Temperatures for the weekend will top out in the lower 80s.

Next week, a series of weak upper lows will pivot over the Southern Plains, the Arklatex, and eventually the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will supply a continuous stream of deep moisture into the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with coverage enhanced each afternoon by the diurnal heating. Severe threat overall looks low, though depending on the amount of instability that develops each afternoon, a few strong storms with gusty winds could occur on any given day. PWATs will approach 2 inches at times, which equates to greater than the 97.5th percentile. Isolated flash flooding will be the main concern during this period. The highest rainfall totals over the next 7 days are expected south of I-40, where amounts of 2-4 inches are expected. There is a 40-50% chance of more than 4 inches of rain across parts of north Mississippi through next Friday, which will go a long way toward improving the drought situation.

It is still early, but the latest models are bringing a back-door cold front through for next weekend, which could give us a break from the rain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A warm front and surface low will greatly impact TAFs through the overnight hours with scattered showers, fog, and low ceilings. SHRAs will continue through sunset when shower chances begin to diminish. VCTS and a PROB30 for -TSRA was drawn in at TUP as an increase in instability may increase over the next several hours over NE MS. Predominantly MVFR cigs will prevail through around 06Z when IFR cigs will begin to trickle in. Fog with lowered visibilities is expected at all sites overnight amidst saturated soils. We'll lift back to MVFR conditions shortly after sunrise tomorrow as the surface low tracks past our area. Fog will also lift shortly after sunrise as winds increase slightly. Aside from a few gusts up to 20 kts at TUP through the afternoon hours, winds will be predominantly light and variable through the TAF period.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast over the next seven days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.