textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs generally from 80 to 85 and low in the 60s through this week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A weak frontal boundary extends across the area this morning with a few showers from extreme northeast Mississippi into the Tennessee River Valley. For the most part, it looks quiet through early afternoon as last night's system departs. A few pop-up showers may occur otherwise a good portion of the day will be rain-free for much of the Mid-South. A couple of MCSs have developed upstream and are moving across southern Arkansas and Louisiana. These storms will push into east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi later this afternoon. The wind shear is very marginal, but enough instability will develop ahead of these storms to sustain them for a while. Breaks in the clouds will result in decent surface heating, and MLCAPE values will reach 1500 J/kg across east-central Arkansas and parts of north Mississippi this afternoon. DCAPE values around 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates would favor some damaging winds with any strong to severe storms. As these storms progress northeastward during the early evening, they will gradually weaken with loss of instability.

Chances for showers and a few storms will continue overnight into Sunday as another weak disturbance moves across the area and interacts with the weak frontal boundary stalled over the region. Sunday will not be a washout as there will be periods of dry weather between the showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower 80s.

A couple of weak upper lows will pivot through the Arklatex and the Lower Mississippi Valley during the upcoming week. Deep moisture will continue across the area with PWATs approaching 2 inches at times or around the 97.5th percentile. This will result in numerous showers and storms throughout the week with localized flooding. A few strong storms may occur each afternoon, dependent on the amount of instability that develops. Highs will be near normal, ranging from 80 to 85 each day, with lows in the 60s.

There is a lot of variability in the medium range with regard to the upper low dropping into the Northeast US later next weekend and its influence on the Mid-South. A deeper upper low that sets up further to the west may push a cold front through the area and result in a transition to a drier, cooler airmass. However, an upper low further to the east may result in a broad, dirty ridge across the region with muggy conditions, and daily rain chances continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The primary aviation weather concern this afternoon will be TSRA chances. The latest short range guidance consensus depicts TSRA lifting northeast from the Arklamiss, with MEM along the northern periphery of this convection by 00Z. This convection will lift to near MKL by 00Z, while weakening in the process.

SHRA will be possible overnight at all the TAF sites, with TSRA chances below mentionable criteria. Main impact will be MVFR CIGs toward 12Z, similar to earlier today. TSRA chances will edge up at MEM Sunday afternoon, aided by daytime heating.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast over the next seven days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the area.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.