textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday afternoon.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday evening, with temperatures falling into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- A warming trend will bring highs back into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday with rain chances returning by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A soggy but much cooler day is progressing across the Mid-South. Some light radar returns are noted along a boundary stretching from Paris, TN to Clarksdale, MS as of noon. This activity is associated with the long-awaited cold front, as depicted by the 15Z surface analysis. As the front progresses, a few stronger storms could pop across northeast Mississippi this afternoon aided by diurnal heating. However, the window for overlapping instability and forcing is already closing and will only become less favorable as the afternoon progresses. If a few strong storms are able to manifest, damaging winds would be the primary threat.

Cooler, drier air is on track to filter in behind this front overnight into Monday. As such, afternoon temperatures will barely climb above 80 degrees Monday morning, which is about 10 degrees below normal for mid June. The residual effects of cooler air will stick around on Tuesday as well, but we return to a more climatological pattern aloft by Wednesday. Expect highs to moderate back to near normal (around 90 degrees) midweek.

Wednesday afternoon, forecast surface analyses place another cold front over the Middle Mississippi River Valley. As this front progresses southward, strong to severe thunderstorms will have another opportunity to develop as synoptic forcing, strong moisture advection, and peak diurnal instability all overlap. Right now, the most favorable ingredients for severe weather are displaced to our north and west due to the very slow forward progression of the front throughout the day. However, if this front speeds up, we may still see some straggling storms along the front Wednesday night. This will be something to keep an eye on for future forecast packages. The good news is, behind this next system is another cooler, drier airmass on Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated over the next 24-30 hours as a cold front progresses south and high pressure builds from the west. While most frontal activity remains east of MEM, isolated showers (VCSH) are possible this afternoon. A higher probability of showers and thunderstorms exists for MEM and MKL during this period. Winds will shift northerly, with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon, subsiding to below 10 kts tonight and tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the rest of this weekend and into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.