textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 702 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Another rainy day across the region as a stalled front meandered through the region, pushing up scattered showers and thunderstorms within an air mass containing ~2.0" PWATs. This activity has mostly dissipated as of 03z with broad stratiform precipitation and a few convective showers across northern Mississippi. This activity is expected to gradually diminish in coverage throughout the night. The upper pattern will become more hostile to convection tomorrow as upper ridging builds back into the region, warming mid-level temperatures. However, high PWATs will still remain, leading to isolated showers through Thursday afternoon with a localized heavy rainfall threat. Any showers that develop Thursday are expected to diminish in coverage after sunset, but will reinvigorate ahead of a new system early Friday morning.

The front will continue to sit across the region into Friday, reorganizing into a weak warm frontal zone as a subtle shortwave perturbation moves over the area. Increased frontal convergence and upper height falls are expected to lead to higher thunderstorm coverage Friday along the boundary. However, the most optimal timing for convection in this zone, roughly along I- 40, appears to be during the morning and early afternoon as the wave transits the region. However, there is disagreement amongst short term guidance on the evolution of the warm front. Some models bring the boundary north into Kentucky while others keep it south, roughly along I-40. This will have implications for both the location and evolution of convection through the day with areas along the boundary likely seeing weaker convection and less afternoon redevelopment. That being said, storms are still expected to develop regardless of the scenario with areas south of the front likely to see MLCAPE rise above 1500 J/kg through the afternoon hours. Afternoon thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rainfall with PWATs near 2.0". Therefore, areas that receive any training storms or repeat thunderstorms could experience flash flooding. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will accompany thunderstorms Friday.

Weak, broad southwesterly flow, which bore the wave Friday, will continue through Memorial Day weekend. Subsequent waves are expected from either decaying MCSs from the Plains or synoptic features. Regardless, these perturbations and the lack of increased ridging will keep elevated precipitation chances throughout the region as high atmospheric moisture continues to sit over the Mid-South and southern CONUS. Exact precipitation coverage is subject to change thanks to high model variability owing to prior days' convection. Nonetheless, daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still expected Saturday and Sunday with additional shots at heavy downpours and gusty winds.

By Monday a southern-branch upper low will have ejected into Texas from northeastern Mexico. Previous runs have had this feature amplify and become cutoff with time Monday with 40 kt mid- level flow over the region. Model variability continues to build into Monday, particularly with respect to the quality of instability throughout the region as prior convection may warm mid-level temperatures Sunday. Previous forecasts have called for this upper low to bring enough height falls to cool these layers through the day, but models are singing a different tune today, showing a weaker system. If this were to occur, precipitation coverage Monday may be lower than currently forecast, but both the GFS and ECMWF keep isolated areas of 500 - 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. So, additional precipitation is still expected Monday, but with the potential for lower coverage.

Model variability, which is already high at this point in the forecast, explodes Tuesday and Wednesday as ensembles struggle to resolve the evolution of the cutoff low. From a pattern recognition point of view, the cutoff feature will probably fill in with time while preventing a more progressive pattern. This would lead to gradual height rises and the amplification of a ridge over the region. Therefore, a decrease in precipitation coverage and warming trend are expected to end the forecast. When all is said and done, anywhere from 2" - 5" of rain are expected with the highest amounts along and south of I-40.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A frontal boundary remains stalled near TUP to begin the period. Persistent -SHRAs will impact TUP through mid morning with prevailing IFR CIGs and intermittent LIFR VSBYS. Elsewhere, a mix of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR CIGs is prevalent. Conditions at all sites will slowly improve through early afternoon with a low to medium chance of VFR conditions by late afternoon.

The stalled front will begin to lift back north after 22/00Z, with scattered -SHRAs and isolated -TSRAs. There is high confidence that all sites will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR conditions overnight.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

No major fire danger concerns will exist for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Wetting rain chances will remain in the forecast over the next 7 days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.