textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 - Gusty northwest winds, between 30 to 40 mph, are expected across the Mid-South through this afternoon.

- A significant drop in temperatures is expected on Monday and Tuesday. The combination of cold air and gusty winds will bring wind chills into the teens and 20s both mornings.

- Chilly mornings will continue through the rest of the work week, but afternoon temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s beyond mid-week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong surface cyclogenesis has occurred beneath a powerful upper shortwave trough that is currently traveling over the Great Lakes Region. An arctic air mass has managed to plunge south into the central CONUS behind the developing surface low and has made its way to the Mid-South this evening. Some convection was able to develop along the boundary along a weak axis of instability, subsequently decreasing in intensity after sunset. However, downward mixing of winds along the leading edge of the front, especially in areas of heavier precipitation, has allowed for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph to reach the ground across the western half of the region this evening. The leading edge of the front is still clearly visible within radar imagery as of 04z, and will continue to move south and east through the evening with precipitation leaving the region between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Given the presence of stronger winds that have occurred tonight, we have opted to expand the Wind Advisory to cover the entire region through 6 a.m. Monday.

The main driver for the power of this front is an impressive temperature gradient that was observed as it traveled the central CONUS, and now the Mid-South. Temperatures are expected to quickly fall as the front passes, and will continue to steadily drop through the rest of the night area-wide. By Monday morning, the majority of the region will be below freezing and areas north of I-40 below 30 F. Winds will still remain and will allow cold air advection to dominate the temperature forecast tomorrow, keeping highs in the 30s and low 40s alongside wind chills in the 20s.

The upper shortwave will exit the CONUS late Monday, swinging north and further amplifying into a longer-wave trough over Ontario and Quebec with a mature surface low beneath it. Winds aloft along the western flank of the upper system will then be deflected south, placing the eastern CONUS in a northwesterly flow regime. This pattern will keep high pressure and cooler temperatures over southern CONUS through at least the middle of the week. Therefore, cold temperatures are expected to remain Tuesday with lows in the 20s, potentially colder depending on radiational cooling conditions. Light winds will also pull wind chills into the low 20s and teens.

The longwave trough will still be in place over eastern Canada on Wednesday with a now old, arctic air mass still present across the region. By this point in the forecast, cold advection will have significantly weakened. Due to the lack of advection and dry air, diurnal heating will begin to control the temperature forecast throughout the day, bringing highs back into the 40s and 50s through the end of the week alongside dry weather.

Ensembles are in good agreement that our next chances for precipitation are on Friday and Saturday as the remnants of an upper low originating from the east Pacific reach the Mid-South. The upper pattern will be split with the energy associated from the old upper low stretched out across the southern CONUS in a zonal band of enhanced flow. Beneath the broader westerlies aloft, an 850 mb - 700 mb jet will impinge on the dry air mass over the region, promoting some isentropic lifting across the southern half of the region. Forecast soundings across north Mississippi, where most of the rain is expected to fall, show shallow moisture only up to about 500 mb. As such, QPF amounts have struggled to eclipse 0.5" Friday through Saturday. Furthermore, convection and thunder are not expected with no instability present. Precipitation chances will exit the region once the moisture with the nose of the low-level jet exits to our east Saturday. High pressure is expected to return again Saturday evening with lows in the 30s, but highs will still stay in the 40s and 50s through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Skies are quickly clearing out behind a cold front as of 11Z. Main impact in the near term is gusty northwest winds up to 25 kts as the gradient along the boundary remains tight. Winds should subside below 10 kts by late this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Minimum RH values will drop significantly behind a cold front passing through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Wetting rains tonight will counteract the moisture for a short time before, but minimum RH values will be between 30 percent and 40 percent through at least Tuesday afternoon. Strong 20 ft winds in excess of 15 knots tonight will slowly weaken through the forecast, dropping to around 5 knots Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will also drop with highs in the 30s and low 40s Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills Tuesday morning are expected to be in the low 20s and into the teens.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.