textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-South, with daily heat headlines anticipated through the end of the week.

- A potential pattern change is on the horizon for Sunday offering the possibility of relief from the heat by early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South through the end of the week as a 595 dam ridge meanders over the Southeast. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 12PM on Tuesday for portions of the Mid-South. Additional heat headlines will be needed as we move towards the end of the week. Maximum heat index values may reach 110 degrees in a few areas, but the probability of this occurring is about 20 percent. Should an Extreme Heat Warning be needed, it will likely be for areas within the Mississippi Delta. Otherwise, expect air temperatures to be well above normal as daily highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

Models are beginning to pick up on a weak upper level disturbance developing along the Gulf Coast by the end of the week. This disturbance will bring a slight chance of precipitation Thursday into the weekend, though rainfall totals will be negligible. Instead, the majority of the region will remain dry which will further exacerbate current drought conditions. The one silver lining to this forecast will be the arrival of a backdoor cold front on Sunday. Temperatures will not change much with this boundary, but lower dewpoints should negate the need for heat headlines by Monday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF vary in regards to how the synoptic pattern evolves next week. The GFS depicts a shortwave diving across the Midwest, keeping the Mid-South within northwest flow aloft. On the other hand, the ECMWF is hanging onto the aforementioned ridge into the middle of next week. Regardless of which scenario manifests, there remains no sign of the Fall season just yet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail under strong high pressure. While hi-res guidance suggests isolated SHRA near MEM and TUP tomorrow afternoon, low confidence in coverage precludes TAF inclusion at this time.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper level ridging will dominate weather patterns through the end of the week with no appreciable rainfall forecast. As a result, minimum 10-hour dead fuel moisture content will hover around 10 percent. Fortunately, light 20-foot winds and minimum relative humidity values above 30 percent should keep fire weather concerns at bay. Fog potential will remain minimal, restricted mainly to localized river valleys.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019- 020-048>051-088-089.