textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Low relative humidity and above-normal temperatures will contribute to elevated fire danger across the Mid-South through Friday.

- High temperatures will gradually warm through late week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Thursday and Friday.

- Moisture from a possible tropical system in the Gulf will bring increasing rain chances to the Mid-South this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Quiescent conditions will persist across the Mid-South in the near term. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS is highlighted by a muted ridge over the Desert Southwest and troughing along the East Coast. The resultant northwest flow aloft has allowed a dry air mass to set up camp over the Mid-South through the end of the work week. This will support larger-than-normal diurnal temperature ranges. Low temperatures will start near normal (mid 50s to around 60 F) midweek, gradually climbing into the low/mid 60s by the weekend. High temperatures will be above normal throughout this time frame, spanning the 80s today and gradually climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. Dry fuels and low relative humidity will result in elevated fire danger, but wind speeds will generally remain light, limiting the overall impact.

The primary forecast concern today is the evolution and track of the tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to intensify over the next few days, eventually lifting north toward the Gulf Coast this weekend. The track of this system will be heavily influenced by the subtropical ridge over Bermuda and the evolution of the weak upper-level low currently over the Great Basin. The western upper low is forecast to drift southeast over TX by Friday, opening the door for the tropical system to lift poleward. There are still some fairly significant timing differences between the ensemble systems, but the general trend in the guidance suggests this feature will approach the central Gulf Coast over the weekend. It's worth noting that a few LREF members even hold this system back into early next week, so confidence is pretty low at the moment. That said, a slower poleward acceleration would likely shunt this system farther east of the aforementioned trough swings through the Lower MS Valley Sunday.

The main impacts associated with this tropical system will likely be confined to the heavy rainfall potential. Moisture is forecast to surge into the region Saturday, with precipitable water exceeding 1.50". This is just above the 90th percentile of climatology for early October. Large-scale lift associated with the trough to our west, combined with the anomalous moisture, will support high PoPs and the potential for locally heavy rainfall, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Current NBM probabilities for 2+ inches of rain exceed 50% across portions of northeast MS this weekend, with 3" probabilities near 30%. Rainfall totals are likely to diminish farther west, with areas along and west of the Mississippi River only sitting at 30-40% chance of 1" or more. We'll have more information as this system develops.

We do anticipate a cold front arriving by early next week, bringing drier and cooler air to the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

There is medium confidence in the development of patchy fog and subsequent MVFR visibilities at MKL and TUP towards sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail at all sites through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Dry air will prevail across the Mid-South through the work week, resulting in minimum relative humidity values of 25-35 percent each afternoon. Twenty-foot wind speeds will remain light through Friday under rain-free conditions. Moisture associated with the tropical system in the Gulf will bring increasing rain chances to the region over the weekend. Patchy fog is expected late tonight, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.