textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Pleasant afternoon temperatures are anticipated through Monday with highs spanning the 80s.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the upper 80s to 90s by midweek through the end of the week, with some locations seeing heat index values approach 105 by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A thick stratus deck and northwest winds have prohibited much warming this Sunday morning. Temperatures as of 11 AM are in the 70s across the entire Mid-South. Satellite imagery shows a few cloud breaks emerging, which will support minor warming; however, most of the area will remain below 80F. The most likely area to reach 80 degrees or slightly above is areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Light drizzle and sprinkles have been observed east of the Mississippi River, but some isolated chances for showers in this same vicinity cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening as troughing continues over the southeast. As the trough continues its path, expect a similar forecast tomorrow with warmer temperatures in western zones and cooler temperatures with isolated rain chances in the east.

The base of the trough will finally depart by Tuesday, but an upper level cut-off low looks to emerge over the southeast. On the back side of this system, a gradual warm up will occur with surface high pressure. Temperatures will begin to return to normal beginning in eastern Arkansas, reaching the lower 90s. By mid-to-late week, southerly flow returns, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms. However, convection may struggle against dry air aloft. Thankfully, the southerly flow will start out rather weak and moisture transport will be modest. However, by the weekend, the flow amplifies and heat index values are probable to return into the triple digits. There are some low to medium probabilities of heat index values nearing 105F as early as Friday, but overall, guidance has trended a touch cooler. Enjoy the cooler temperatures in the short term, but be prepared for heat and humidity to return next weekend.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

MVFR conditions continue across the airspace as clouds continue to move through along with some -DZ. Over the next few hours, scattering of this cloud deck is expected with conditions returning to VFR areawide likely around to after 01Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period, with generally northwesterly to northerly winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.