textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat index values may approach 105 for some areas on Sunday, becoming more widespread by Monday. Heat Advisories will likely be warranted for portions of the Mid-South during the workweek.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday, mainly south of the I-40 corridor.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A fairly calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid- South currently with temperatures spanning the 70s. Earlier shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to wane and move out of the area, leaving behind dry conditions. With generally light winds and low dew point depressions overnight, expect for patchy fog to develop over the next few hours through sunrise, especially for locations that saw precipitation Saturday afternoon. Any fog that does develop will quickly mix out following sunrise.

Beginning on Sunday, we will slowly transition back into a true, summertime pattern which will likely continue for the foreseeable future. With generally little upper-level forcing, the majority of any shower and thunderstorm activity will remain diurnally driven. Coverage may be a bit more scattered on Sunday, mainly south of I-40, but coverage will likely remain isolated by Monday through at least midweek. Temperatures will remain closer to normal on Sunday with lingering cloud coverage, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. By Monday and Tuesday with clearing conditions, high temperatures will quickly rise back to the low to mid 90s. Probabilistic guidance is still fairly unimpressed with the potential for heat index values exceeding 105 degrees on Sunday, but probabilities begin to increase to around 20 to 30% by Monday and even higher Tuesday onward. As such, we will continue to monitor the potential for heat headlines as the week progresses as portions of the Mid-South will likely meet or exceed the criteria for issuance.

By Wednesday into Thursday, an upper-level ridge will begin to strengthen over the Rockies with a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes into the northeast. While the deepening trough over the midwest will allow our area to shift to subtle northwesterly flow, latest guidance trends quickly rebuild a high pressure over our area into next weekend. With the potential northwest flow regime, this would open the door for a few shortwaves to swing down through the region and increase PoP chances. However, guidance is trending a little warmer and drier, leaning more towards a weaker northwesterly flow pattern over the Mid-South. Latest LREF guidance does tend to favor a drier, more summertime pattern through the remainder of the week. ENS guidance leans more towards a gradual warming trend through the week and into next weekend, while the GEFS starts much warmer and falls back closer to normal for our temperatures by the end of the week. Nonetheless, summer is in full swing for the Mid-South with highs likely remaining in the low to mid 90s to end the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all four terminals, which is expected to last through the majority of the night. MKL may see MVFR visibility reductions near sunrise, but is expected to clear quickly. Otherwise, light south-southwesterly winds and VFR will continue through the end of the period. A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms are expected in and around MEM/MKL/TUP, but recent guidance has further decreased the coverage of convection. If this trend continues, the removal of -SHRA/-TSRA may occur at the aforementioned sites, but given the persistence of a convective signal, have opted to keep them within the 06z TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A typical, summertime weather pattern will continue for the foreseeable future with no major fire danger concerns. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Sunday afternoon, with isolated coverage through at least the middle of the week. As such, minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% with generally light 20 ft winds through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.