textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- High temperatures will warm through Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- The mild temperatures will precede a strong cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north and east of the Memphis area.

- Much cooler temperatures will prevail from Thursday into the weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed a cut-off southern branch upper low over TX. This feature was embedded under a broad upper ridge, with the northern branch of the upper jet displaced well north, from the upper Midwest to the mid-Atlantic coast.

Through Wednesday, the southern branch upper low will shear eastward, in advance of a high amplitude northern branch trough diving southeast into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. A strong surface cold front will pass through the Midsouth Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening, in tandem with midlevel height falls. Midlevel lapse rates around 6.5C/km and 0-6 KM bulk shear near 60 KT would suggest some support for strong to marginal severe storms, mainly north and east of the Memphis area. As is often the case this time of year, CINH remains in question. RRFS sounding for Jackson at 21Z Wednesday depicts SBCAPE of 750kg, capped below a pronounced EML based at 850mb. It bears mention that not all REFS members depict such a strong EML, suggesting deep moist convection remains a possibility given the strong frontal convergence.

Following 36 hours or so of post-frontal cold advection, surface high pressure will settle into the Midsouth Friday night. This will set the stage for a freezing temperatures areawide, with a hard freeze (28F or colder) likely in the valleys of West TN and north MS Friday night. Under an encroaching upper ridge from the west, dry will modify to near normal by Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

High pressure will continue to dominate the airspace this issuance. VFR conditions will prevail across all sites. Light and variable winds will persist across each terminal over the next 30 hours. Brief drops in visby may be noted at MKL/TUP overnight, however, confidence in fog potential was not high enough to mention in TAF.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Low minimum relative humidity will moderate slightly on Tuesday, as surface winds remain light. Wednesday will bring increasing winds and humidity, in advance of a strong cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon into early evening. This front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas to the north of a line from Jonesboro to Memphis to Tupelo will have the best chance of receiving wetting rainfall.

Dry and cool conditions will prevail Thursday through Saturday. A hard freeze is expected Saturday morning, mainly over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.