textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Dry conditions will persist today with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- A reinforcing dry cold front will arrive Friday with much cooler air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 50s to 60s with lows in the 30s to 40s.

- Portions of West Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel have a 40 to 60 percent chance of lows dropping to near-freezing Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Calm and dry weather currently prevails over the Mid-South with weak surface high pressure. Aloft, a jet streak extends from the southern Plains east into the Appalachian Mountains alongside a subtle shortwave trough over the High Plains in TX/OK/KS. This system will move east, but will remain at a low amplitude with mostly zonal flow through the next couple days. Therefore, temperatures are forecast to hold steady today with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will arrive in the region early Friday morning, pushing into another blast of cooler air. Fog is less likely Friday morning thanks to the increase in winds, which will also keep lows a bit higher within suboptimal radiational cooling conditions. But highs will be pushed cooler nonetheless. Most guidance brings highs down into the 60s Friday, continuing downward into the 50s for most areas by Saturday. Lows will also be impacted with a medium (40% - 60%) chance for portions of West TN, eastern AR, and the MO bootheel to see lows below 35 F with the rest of the region likely to fall to 40 F or below beginning Sunday morning and lasting into early next week.

Through the weekend the upper trough and jet streak will exit east of the region, tightening up into a more amplified trough over the northeast with a new trough becoming cutoff over the southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico. High pressure behind the front Friday will settle in over the region, leading to a fairly stagnant forecast starting on Monday. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm without any cold advection, but highs are expected to only reach into the 60s with lows rising into the upper 30s and low 40s. Through the remainder of the period after Monday, ensembles are confident that an upper ridge will begin to amplify over the Rockies. The upstream impacts from the ridge will result in troughing over the eastern CONUS, likely keeping the region at normal or slightly below-normal temperatures late next week with a dry forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Winds will remain light, generally west to southwest today, becoming calm overnight. A weak cold front will move across the Mid-South tonight. North winds 5-8kts will prevail behind the front tomorrow. Light wind overnight along with high RH will result in patchy fog near TUP and MKL. Confidence is low that visibility will drop below one quarter of a mile.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Minimum relative humidity values remain above 40% areawide through at least this weekend, thanks to recent wetting rains and cooler temperatures. Expect light to calm 20-foot winds Thursday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will arrive early Friday morning, with a northerly wind shift and increase in 20-foot winds of up to 10 mph. Regardless, fire danger is expected to remain low through the period, but wetting rains are not anticipated through the next week, which may lead to increasing fire danger with time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.