textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2025

- Gusty southerly winds are expected today with a high chance (greater than 70%) of winds over 20 mph.

- Scattered rain chances (30-60%) will persist from Sunday through Tuesday, but rainfall amounts are expected to remain light.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs likely exceeding 70 degrees, are anticipated for Christmas Day.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows high level clouds moving into the Mid-South from the northwest. At the surface, broad high pressure encapsulates the Ohio River Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple of surface lows are analyzed over the Texas Panhandle and South Dakota respectively.

High pressure will continue to slide east overnight with strengthening return flow across the Mid-South. The surface pressure gradient will tighten quickly early Saturday morning as a 1000mb low pivots into southeast Texas. NBM probabilities for sustained winds of 20 mph are in the 60-90% range mainly across NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of northwest Tennessee. Probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph are in the 30-50% range, but still below wind advisory criteria. Nonetheless, strong and gusty southerly winds are anticipated for the majority of Saturday.

A cold front will advance through the Mid-South overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. There will be enough lift and moisture in place to generate showers along and south of I-40. QPF totals will remain very low or less than a tenth of an inch. A slight cooldown is anticipated on Sunday before another quick airmass change.

Monday will feature strong poleward moisture transport as surface high pressure quickly slides east. High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A couple of weak perturbations will translate through weak northwest flow and spawn showers across the region late Monday through Tuesday. PoPs have increased to the 40-60% range although rainfall accumulations are generally less than one quarter of an inch.

The main focus shifts to significant record warmth building across the southern half of the CONUS by Wednesday. Model guidance continues to indicate significant, near-record warmth across the region with upper level heights and temperatures pinging 30 year return intervals Tuesday through at least next Thursday. High temperatures will be as much as 20 degrees above normal with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Confidence remains very high that a white Christmas will not occur.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR will continue at the start of the period at all terminals with winds beginning to steadily increase at the surface through this morning thanks to a strengthening low level jet. LLWS impacts can be expected from these low level jet winds through this morning before subsiding during the late morning and early afternoon. Gusty conditions are expected to calm after sunset. A cold front will then pass through the region tonight. Rain chances increase to around 30% after 06z Sunday at MEM/TUP with MVFR CIGs likely regardless of any rain. MKL/JBR are expected to remain VFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Return flow will increase moisture on Saturday and daily rain chances will persist Sunday through Tuesday. There is high confidence that fire danger concerns will remain low for the near future. Near-record warmth is anticipated all next week as upper level high pressure builds in.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.