textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Heat and humidity will persist through the end of the week with daily highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Daily bouts of showers and storms resume Friday and continue into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A large area of high pressure continues to encompass much of the south/southwest CONUS. This edges heat and humidity slightly above climatology for early June. A broad trough centered near/east of the northern CONUS and Canadian Rockies will produce robust convection along a leading shortwave across the Midwest region. A secondary wave, along the trough's attendant cold front, will begin to dampen the ridge beginning late tonight.

It will take some time to break down this ridge, so the aforementioned cold front should begin its trek southeast across Missouri late Thursday night into Friday morning. The greatest height falls are projected to remain well north of the area (near Michigan) resulting in weaker forcing near the Mid-South. Thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of this boundary (particularly for northeast Arkansas initially), with a low (level 1/5) Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms as it inches closer. Guidance suggests around 20-30kts of bulk shear right along the AR/MO and KY/TN borders on the frontal descent. Given the projected timing, surface based CAPE should remain below 1000 J/kg. While these parameters are on the lower end, a strong to severe storm could develop in these conditions. The marginal risk is sufficient given uncertainty of strength of forcing against the ridge.

This frontal boundary will eventually lose due the strength of the ridge and stall along the I-40 corridor by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily on the warm side of the boundary throughout the day Friday. In the absence of strong forcing, the models vary on the location and coverage of diurnally driven storms across north Mississippi. Until this front moves, which is currently projected for Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected daily with enhancement during daytime heating. PWs hover between 1.75-2" daily, which is slightly elevated (nearing 90th percentile) climatologically. Any thunderstorm will be an efficient rainfall producer with marginal EROs covering portions of the Mid-South until a secondary front sinks on Tuesday. Forcing looks a little stronger with this push, which could be our highest chance for organized convection, but it is too early for specifics. In the short term, enjoy the dry but hot and humid conditions before unsettled weather returns on Friday.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 are expected at MEM, MKL, and JBR, and 6-9 kts at TUP during diurnal mixing. Winds will decouple and become light at night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances resume tomorrow and persist into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.