textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Patchy black ice is expected on roadways and bridges, especially on overpasses, through 12 PM today due to freezing temperatures. Slow down, increase distance, and allow extra time for travel this morning.

- Dry conditions will resume by the middle of the day on Tuesday, with precipitation chances returning by Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wintry weather ended across the region over the past couple of hours and temperatures along and north of I-40 have fallen to or below freezing. Due to the amount of residual water on roadways, as seen from traffic cameras on local highways and interstates, patchy black ice will continue to be a threat.

Mainly overcast skies can be expected this morning into late afternoon, as the main upper level low pressure swings through the region. Surface temperatures are not expected to warm much today with readings mainly in the low to mid 30s. An SPS was issued through 12 PM today, highlighting the threat of patchy black ice especially on bridges and overpasses. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

AC3

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A chilly overnight continues with mixed precipitation types depending where you are across the Mid-South. Locations across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far northwest TN have already seen rain transition to a wintry mix over the past few hours, with freezing rain being the most common precipitation type. The 00Z sounding from Little Rock does show a pretty deep warm nose from earlier this evening. Latest mesoanalysis does suggest that this continues to slowly erode, which will help some locations transition from freezing rain to sleet. Our 850 mb freezing line continues to push into the far northwest corner of our area, so expect those locations to continue to transition to snow with any lingering moisture. Right now the entire column of below freezing temperatures does appear to extend to the Mississippi River, so a transition to snow across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far northwest TN appears imminent. As far as other locations across the Mid-South go, locations south of I-40 will continue to see a very cold rain, with only a brief window of a wintry mix likely around midnight. Models continue to depict things drying out areawide pretty rapidly after midnight, with the bulk of any precipitation exiting before sunrise. In terms of impacts through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, these will likely be mostly confined to bridges and overpasses that would be the most susceptible to icing. If some additional issues were to arise, it would likely be in the far northwest corner of the area and along the TN/KY stateline. Total ice accumulation will likely remain below a tenth of an inch, with total snow amounts remaining below half an inch.

Any lingering precipitation will likely move out by sunrise on Tuesday, with chilly temperatures lingering throughout the day. High temperatures will likely remain in the 30s across much of the area and only reach the 40s across northeast MS and our southern tier of counties. If there is any lingering moisture on surfaces on Tuesday, winds are expected to remain elevated enough to help dry things out. This would likely eliminate any re- freezing Tuesday night. A subtle high pressure will begin to develop on Wednesday, with WAA returning to the area. This will allow temperatures to warm back into the 40s north and low 50s south. This brief warmer period will be short lived as things turn cooler again into Thursday with rain chances slowly increasing to end the week as a weak shortwave passes through the region. Guidance does want to clip our area with some precipitation on Friday, but these chances have continued to decrease from previous model runs, keeping parts of the Mid-South dry. The area should see another brief dry spell behind this shortwave, with eyes turning to a developing upper- level trough off the Rockies. Models have slowed down the progression of this overall pattern, so have pretty low confidence in the ultimate pattern as we progress through the weekend. Models do agree that below-normal temperatures are likely here to stay for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures in the 40s to 50s to end the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Precipitation has come to an end across the airspace leaving IFR and MVFR ceilings blanketing the area. A brief swath of clearing is depicted on satellite and should last for about an hour before filling in once again at all terminals. Dry air post frontal should continue to filter to the surface and allow decks to scatter out by late afternoon. VFR is expected to prevail after 03Z as confidence increases with subsidence.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-054-055.