textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered areas of rainfall are expected through Friday, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and location of showers and storms. Depending on where storms set up, a localized flash flooding threat could exist each afternoon into evening.

- The upcoming weekend and into next week will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the mid to upper 90s by as early as Sunday.

- Heat indices are expected climb into the triple digits starting Saturday that will last through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A cool evening currently presents itself with temperatures hovering around 80 F across the region amidst very humid air consisting of dewpoints at or above 70 F. The resulting high theta e from this air mass has allowed for the development of 1000 - 2000 J/kg MLCAPE along the Mississippi River and portions of northern Mississippi. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave trough, seen as an area of low reflectivity travelling into the region from central Arkansas, has managed to provide enough lift to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast upper air profiles indicate PWATs in excess of 2.00" will be present with skinny, tall CAPE profiles. Therefore, the severe threat is expected to be low with stronger thunderstorms producing only gusty winds. However, PWATs of this level (99th+ percentile) will bring a threat of isolated flash flooding, particularly in areas that received large amounts of rainfall earlier this week. Storms are exhibiting a tendency to propagate upwind and become roughly stationary, which may locally enhance this flash flooding threat. CAMs seem to indicate that storms will follow the shortwave perturbation through the night, but the coverage of storms is still uncertain as this same suite of guidance has varied from run-to-run.

By sunrise Thursday, the majority of guidance has rain limited to isolated showers which then decrease in coverage further throughout the day. Weak, zonal flow aloft will return behind the shortwave through the day with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and low 90s, which will mark the beginnings of a warming trend that will last through the weekend. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible as diurnal heating brings MLCAPE back above 1000 J/kg, potentially as high as 2000 J/kg. CAMs keep the coverage of convection low through the majority of the region, but have consistently brought a decaying MCS into northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee through Thursday night and Friday morning. Expect a marginal damaging wind threat and heavy downpours with these thunderstorms.

The upper pattern across the CONUS will undergo a dramatic shift Friday and into this upcoming weekend. Generally zonal flow will give way to the amplification of a large upper ridge over the eastern CONUS starting late Friday. By Sunday, the ridge will park directly over the Mid-South at a staggering 594 dm and will remain in this position into early next week. Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge remaining at a similar strength, although moving slightly northeast, through the latter half of next week. Surface highs will soar as a consequence with highs in the low to mid 90s Saturday and Sunday, climbing into the mid to upper 90s Monday through most of next week. At the same time, surface moisture will remain very high with dewpoints above 70 F, leading to triple digit heat indices as early as Saturday. Heat headlines may very well be needed through much of next week if this trend holds where forecasts call for heat indices between 105 - 110 F through the remainder of the forecast. What is yet to be seen is the coverage of any diurnal convection, which could mute the magnitude of afternoon highs. This lowers confidence in meeting the aforementioned afternoon heat indices, but regardless, prepare for a prolonged heat wave through next week with the potential for dangerous heat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over east central Arkansas is drifting east although individual storms within the cluster are moving more southerly. Storms are expected to move into the MEM airspace in the next hour or two, but only last for an hour or two before moving south. Confidence in thunder on station is not high, so will maintain the PROB30. MVFR cigs are possible but upstream obs favor 4-5k ft cigs. Storms should remain west and south of JBR. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and south winds 3-7 kts are expected to prevail for the remainder of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites.

Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Thursday due to surface heating. Location will be dependent on outflow boundaries left over from tonight's convection and confidence is too low to mention at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Recent wetting rains will preclude fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. Minimum relative humidity values above 40% and daily bouts of showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.