textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered areas of rainfall are expected, mainly north of I-40, through Saturday morning, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and intensity of showers and storms. Depending on where storms set up, a localized flash flooding threat could exist each afternoon into evening.

- The upcoming weekend and into next week will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the mid to upper 90s by as early as Sunday.

- Heat indices are expected to climb into the triple digits starting Saturday that will last through all of next week. Heat products will likely be warranted each day.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A warmer day is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the low to mid 80s under mostly clear skies. As we move through the day, upper-level quasi-zonal flow will continue to build over the Mid-South. A few embedded shortwaves along with peak daytime heating could bring enough lift for a few pop-up showers and storms this afternoon and into evening, however, a mostly dry day is anticipated across the Mid-South. A warmer day is also expected with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

As we move into the overnight hours, a few more potent shortwaves, south of a stationary boundary, will begin to move over the Tennessee and Mississippi state line as a weakening MCS looks to move over areas north of I-40. We could see a few strong to severe wind gusts and heavy downpours with this overnight system as forecast soundings indicate around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 30 kts of effective shear, dewpoints in the low 70s, and PWATs on the order of 2+", nearing the 99th percentile for this time of the year. However, with this overnight system, a limiting factor could be the amount of CIN storms will need to overcome for storms to produce and potentially become severe. CAMs are also hinting at a secondary afternoon into early evening MCS moving along this same area as the aforementioned stationary boundary looks to wobble slightly further south and another embedded shortwave ejects from the west. With peak daytime heating, this afternoon complex could lead to a higher severe threat with forecast soundings hinting at SBCAPE 2000+ J/kg, dewpoints in the mid 70s, and PWATs 2+". Though effective shear looks meager at around 25-30 kts, potentially inhibiting upscale growth. If storms do become severe, damaging wind will be the main threat. A localized flash flooding threat will also exist with heavy downpours along previously saturated soils from early week. One thing to note: many areas across the Mid-South will see little to no rain over the next few days as best chances will be confined to areas along the Tennessee and Kentucky border.

Past Friday, heat and humidity will become the primary concern across the Mid-South as the current 593dm ridge, currently over the southwestern CONUS, will begin to build and amplify east. Highs will begin to flirt with the mid to upper 90s beginning Sunday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. By late Sunday, the aforementioned ridge will park and nearly center over the Mid- South at 594dm through at least mid-week. Ensembles continue in decent agreement with this ridge translating northeast, leaving us in the southwestern quadrant by the latter half of the week. Heat headlines will likely be warranted each day next week as heat indices in excess of 105F will be witnessed in many areas across the Mid-South. Dangerous, prolonged heat will be seen across the region with little to no relief in the evenings with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints remaining steady. Diurnally driven convection each afternoon could hinder our need for Excessive Heat Warnings next week, however, we do know that it will be anomalously hot. Now is the time to prepare for a prolonged late June heatwave and a potential for dangerous heat.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

HREF/REFS guidance suggests a low chance for showers and thunderstorms to occur at JBR late tonight. Thus, the PROB30 for JBR will continue but shifted later based on the latest trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions and mainly rain-free conditions are expected to prevail at TAF sites. Light south winds will increase to south winds 10-12 kts, with gusts to around 20 kts towards Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Recent wetting rains and saturated soils will inhibit fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. Minimum relative humidity values above 40% and daily bouts of pop-up showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.