textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist into at least the middle of next week. Little rainfall is expected during the next seven days after Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide from 11 AM Monday until 7 PM Tuesday. Expect heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by early next week, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Convection persisted well beyond peak heating on Sunday evening, resulting in a few reports of isolated wind damage. The environment wasn't particularly impressive with regard to instability, but mesoscale lift associated with outflow boundaries and increasing low-level moisture were enough to overcome weak MLCINH. Most of this activity has now dissipated, but a few showers could persist for another hour or two with minimal impacts.

The upper-level ridge is currently centered from east TX into the northern Gulf with northwest flow aloft over the Mid-South. While 500 mb geopotential heights will begin to build over the Mid-South on Monday, we'll likely see another bout of diurnal convection, mainly across north MS and east-central AR. The NBM again captured this potential poorly and was adjusted to include 20% PoPs. Any storms that develop should be short-lived, pulse cells with the potential to produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. This activity will likely linger into the early evening but is expected to dissipate fairly quickly after sunset given the lack of forcing aloft. This anomalous ridge will continue to build through midweek, with the ridge anchoring over the Mid-South. Geopotential heights at 500 mb are progged to exceed 598 dam by Tuesday afternoon. Large-scale subsidence will warm mid-level temperatures and help squash precipitation chances Tuesday into the late week period.

Temperatures will flirt with record values at all four climate sites much of the upcoming week, with highs pushing 100 F in some areas. In addition, the moist air mass will support heat indices at or above 105 F. A Heat Advisory is already in effect area-wide both Monday and Tuesday. It will likely need to be extended into Wednesday for portions of the Mid-South, but drier air advecting into the region from the southeast is resulting in enough spatial uncertainty to preclude an extension at this time. Regardless, it's going to remain quite hot through the remainder of the work week.

The deterministic NBM has backed off on the weekend "cooling trend" a bit, with forecast temperatures still well above normal (highs in the mid/upper 80s) through Sunday. Ensemble guidance remains uncertain regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern by this time frame. Most of the LREF members indicate a weak trough developing over the Lower MS Valley by Sunday into early next week. This results in a lot of uncertainty in the probabilistic temperatures, with the inner quartile (25th-75th percentile) maximum temperature at Memphis ranging from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. We're still a few days out from having a good handle on a potential pattern shift, but we're going to be dealing with the heat through at least the rest of this week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight. MKL did pick up some rainfall this afternoon, making it the most likely location, but there is a low probability of MVFR visibility at TUP as well. Once the sun rises, VFR conditions will prevail area-wide, outside of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm probabilities are too low to include in the TAF at this time, but if a forecast terminal is affected, it will most likely be TUP. Winds will remain light from a general east and northeast direction.

AMD NOT SKED was reinserted into the TUP TAF given the lack of augmented observations overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy fog is expected again tonight, especially across West Tennessee where recent rainfall has increased soil moisture. Near- record temperatures and dangerous heat indices are forecast through midweek, with only a slight cooling trend expected during the latter half of the work week. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly over east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi, but generally dry weather is forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be light, and afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to remain above 10% through the period, with afternoon relative humidity generally in the 30-40% range most of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.