textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat is expected, with an areawide Heat Advisory in effect from Wednesday through Saturday.

- Heat index values will frequently exceed 100 degrees, and limited overnight cooling will significantly increase heat stress.

- Isolated, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, with the highest chances along and west of the Mississippi River.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

A 596 dam ridge continues to expand and intensify across the Ohio Valley as of 11 AM. Temperatures are running 1-5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with another hot day expected with highs in the upper 90s. A Heat Advisory will begin at noon for portions of Mid- South through 8 PM for heat index values up to 106F. As the aforementioned ridge retrogrades, moisture will continue to surge across the region. Continued moisture flow combined with stagnant upper 90s, and perhaps low 100s, an areawide Heat Advisory will go into effect Wednesday at 11 AM and persist through 8 PM Saturday. Limited cooling at night is expected, which makes this heat dangerous. The lack of significant nocturnal cooling will result in cumulative heat stress, significantly increasing the health risk for vulnerable populations.

Similar to yesterday, diurnally driven showers could develop each afternoon providing temporary relief from heat. While isolated summer-time convection is hard to pinpoint, the highest probability for shower development will be along and west of the Mississippi River.

No large-scale synoptic changes are expected during the work week There is increased rain chances on Friday evening across north Mississippi as the remnant moisture from what once was TS Dolly and TS Edouard will ride the western periphery of the ridge. Troughing will set up in the northeast by Sunday nudging dewpoints down slightly, but relief does not appear to be on the horizon. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of another strong upper ridge centering over the region early next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft prevails across the Mid- South, resulting in VFR conditions and light winds at all terminals through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

A persistent upper-level ridge will maintain hot, dry conditions across the Mid-South. While minimum relative humidity (RH) values are expected to stay above 30% and 20-foot winds will remain light, the lack of widespread wetting rain under strong daytime heating will cause 10-hour fuels to remain low. Fog potential remains low overall, restricted primarily to low-lying river valleys during the early morning hours.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020- 048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.