textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a stationary front over southern Missouri in the pre-dawn hours. Outflow from these storms will likely enter the Midsouth during the morning and serve as a focus for additional scattered thunderstorms, mainly north of Interstate 40 today.

- For areas not affected by thunderstorms, it will be another warm and humid day, with heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.

- A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing an end to the summer-like heat. Elevated wildfire danger is forecast for Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Another warm and humid day is in store for today, under the northern portion of a 593dam 500mb ridge. A convective corridor will extend from southern MO into the lower OH River Valley during the pre-dawn hours, where the stronger westerlies prevail. A few storms will likely propagate southeast, aided by outflow toward midmorning. 00Z CAMs showed a rather wide variation of convective scenarios with respect to storm timing and coverage for the Midsouth later today. Taken together, ensemble solutions continued to point toward thunderstorm chances for areas mainly north of I-40. Where storms don't significantly modify temperatures, mid 70s dewpoints will help drive afternoon heat indices again to the mid to upper 90s.

Storms chances should diminish by early evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes. Concurrently, midlevel heights will build slightly tonight, shifting the storm track north. Drier surface air over central MS today will spread north into the Midsouth on Thursday, with dewpoints back down in the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs will top out near 90 over most of the Midsouth Thursday afternoon, our last summer-like day before steep northern branch height falls drive a strong cold front through the Midsouth early Friday. With limited pre-frontal moisture, this front will pass through dry. Despite much cooler post-frontal temperatures, a larger dewpoint drop will bring relative humidity down to as low as 35 percent percent Friday afternoon. Unlike our recent low humidity days, Friday will bring strong northwest winds which will elevate wildland fire danger.

The Canadian airmass will settle into the Midsouth this weekend, with light winds expected. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s, with upper 30s forecast for northern portions of West Tennessee Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Lots of uncertainty regarding the coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms this morning. We did not see the outflow that was forecast by some CAMS make its way into the area. As a result, storms may have a difficult focusing initial updrafts. Nevertheless, we should see some development by mid morning as temperatures warm. Highest confidence in and on station precipitation is at JBR. Continued with PROB30s at JBR, MKL and MEM for TS. Storms will weaken and diminish in coverage by sunset. Storms are not expected near TUP. South to southwest winds may reach 10 kts this afternoon, otherwise, wind speeds will be in the 4-7 kt range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity will drop to as low as 30 percent today, from Oxford south. To the north, more humid conditions will prevail, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-40. Drier conditions will prevail areawide Thursday, before a strong cold front passes through Friday morning. Post- frontal relative humidity on Friday afternoon will drop to as low as 35 percent over the delta, southwest of Memphis.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.