textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

- Hot temperatures with a low chance (30 percent or less) of rain will continue through the weekend.

- Temperatures will return to near normal next week as rain chances are on the rise.

- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

More summer-like weather is in the forecast today. An upper ridge currently resides over the Ohio/Mississippi River Confluence with a weak upper low over the Carolinas and another, stronger trough over the Northern Plains. Clear skies this morning have allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s by 17z, with highs in the mid to upper 90s anticipated through this afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible across north Mississippi through this evening. Any precipitation will quickly dissipate after sunset.

Ridging will gradually break down as the Northern Plains trough advances eastward into this weekend. A surface front associated with the system will be dragged along with it. No meaningful changes to the the temperature forecast will occur, but enough frontal convergence will allow for increased rain chances tomorrow. However, rain accumulation will be light (< .5") owing to dry low levels and isolated/scattered coverage, offering little reprieve from the ongoing drought. By Saturday, shortwave ridging will take over, drying out the forecast once again. Highs on Friday and through the remainder of the weekend will remain in the mid to upper 90s.

Forecast uncertainty balloons considerably moving into the early portions of next week. After the current trough over the northern CONUS weakens and moves east, another trough is forecast to eject from the Rockies into the same area Tuesday. Run-to-run consistency has been very poor regarding the post-ejection evolution with two main solutions: 1) an amplified cutoff low or 2) a progressive shortwave trough. LREF guidance is nearly split down the middle as well with around 55% of clustered members favoring scenario 1 over 2. Impacts will be entirely based on which occurs with a cutoff low likely bringing increased rain chances and cooler temperatures; our best shot at relief from the ongoing drought and heat wave. In the progressive troughing scenario, any relief will be brief. Regardless, the predictability horizon on this system is very small and will take successive forecast period to hone in on exactly what will occur next week.

In the meantime, with no appreciable rain in the forecast for at least 7 days, portions of Northwest Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and eastern Arkansas have been upgraded to a D3 (extreme) drought. Latest estimates show that much of the region has seen anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of water or less than normal in the last 30 days. With no rain expected, an expansion and worsening of the drought is expected through at least next week. Elevated grassland fire concerns will continue to persist so long as drought conditions remain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

VFR with light west to southwest winds. A midlevel cloud deck will approach JBR and MEM River tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will continue to fall below 40% across the majority of the region through this weekend with low (less than 20 percent) chances for afternoon showers. Additionally, a D3 (extreme) drought has been placed for portions of Northwest Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and eastern Arkansas. These two factors will keep fire dangers elevated through the period. Light 20 ft winds will prevent more significant fire concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.