textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Slightly cooler temperatures are expected through mid week with heat index values remaining closer to 100 degrees. Hot and humid conditions will gradually return for the remainder of the week into next weekend with heat index values increasing into the triple digits again.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will persist across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

00Z upper air analysis features a mid-level trough stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Lingering pulse-type showers and thunderstorms near the Memphis metro area and northeast Mississippi have weakened with the loss of daytime instability and increasing convective inhibition. Late evening temperatures are in the 70s across the Mid-South.

Afternoon to early evening rainfall mainly east of the Mississippi River has resulted in the atmosphere becoming nearly saturated with temperatures approaching current surface dewpoints. This will result in patchy to areas of fog especially towards the Tennessee river into sunrise Monday. The mid-level trough will remain over the Lower Mississippi Valley into Wednesday. The pre-convective environment will remain conducive for isolated to scattered summer pulse-type thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours each day in a weakly sheared environment. Coverage on Monday is expected to be mainly east of the Mississippi River where better moisture will reside. Damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall will remain the threats with any stronger thunderstorms this week. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the first half of the week with resultant heat index values in the 90s to low 100s below heat advisory criteria.

By midweek, the mid-level trough will lift out of the Lower Mississippi Valley as an upper-level ridge builds over the western U.S. This will place the Mid-South on the eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge axis with upper level flow transitioning to nearly zonal flow by late week, then northwest flow by next weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase especially towards the latter half of the period with the best coverage occurring during peak heating. In addition, temperatures will increase again with heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria west of the Mississippi River towards next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Mainly rainfree conditions are expected at all TAF sites into Monday morning. Recent rainfall at MKL and TUP is anticipated to produce MVFR to IFR visibilities overnight towards sunrise Monday. Latest short-term model trends suggest best convective coverage will occur at MKL and TUP during peak heating and maintain the PROB30 groups. Meanwhile, confidence in coverage remains too low to keep PROB30 groups at MEM and JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally light. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.