textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- A cold front will bring scattered to numerous thunderstorm chances to a large part of the Mid-South today through early Saturday, offering some minor heat and drought relief.

- Extreme heat and dry weather return Sunday into next week as high pressure strengthens, maintaining dry and above-normal temperatures across the region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front stretching from West Virginia to Louisville, KY, and roughly parallel to I-40 through West Tennessee. Abundant moisture persists along this boundary, with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s and PWATs above the 90th percentile (99th percentile north). Radar reveals a broad rain shield from north-central Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel, where 1.5 to 6 inches of rain fell over the past 12-18 hours.

Aloft, a shortwave trough over Missouri and weak perturbations in Arkansas will pivot east over the next 24 hours, bringing rounds of scattered convection. Moderately unstable air (MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg) along and south of I-40 combined with ~20 kt bulk shear will primarily support single-cell and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging winds. If the wave ejects faster by late afternoon, a linear mode could evolve across NW Tennessee, increasing severe probabilities. Overall, a Marginal Risk (1/5) for Severe Thunderstorms and Marginal Risk (1/4) for Excessive Rainfall remain across most of the Mid-South. Strong microbursts remain the main threat given 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates despite poor mid-level lapse rates (~5.5 C/km).

Scattered convection will become more numerous and potentially linear east of the Mississippi this evening as upper lift increases. A secondary wave late tonight will bring another round of showers and storms. While high PWATs and parallel flow favor storm training, low instability and dry antecedent conditions will keep flood potential low.

Guidance continues trending drier for Saturday as shortwave energy moves northeast, with lingering chance PoPs mainly near the Tennessee River through early afternoon.

High agreement among model guidance indicates a subtropical ridge amplifying over the Lower Mississippi Valley through midweek. This will bring another stretch of excessive heat and potential headlines from Sunday through Wednesday, with a medium chance of record high temperatures early next week. A pattern change remains beyond the 7-day forecast.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

As the lower atmosphere continues to destabilize this afternoon, SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop ahead of a well-defined mid- level trough over western AR. TSRA will be relatively unorganized until the upper trough approaches, with a forced line TSRA the possible result during the mid/late afternoon. Except at JBR, TEMPOs cover this forced line scenario, while VCTS has been introduced in the interim.

A modified tropical airmass will support isolated TSRA over north MS Saturday afternoon, beyond the TUP 24 hour TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Scattered thunderstorms and wetting rains will continue through early Saturday morning as an upper-level low-pressure system moves across the region. Minimum Relative Humidity (RH) values are forecast to remain at or above 40% through Saturday as tropical-like moisture remains in place, keeping 10-hour fuel moisture levels elevated. 20-foot winds will remain light to moderate. Additional wetting rains are possible Saturday afternoon, primarily focused south of the Interstate 40 corridor. Hot and dry conditions will return Sunday as high pressure builds across the region and persist through at least the middle of next week, leading to lower Minimum Relative Humidity values and gradual drying of 10-hour fuels. Overnight fog coverage is expected to remain localized in low-lying river valleys during the late night to early morning hours, where maximum overnight Relative Humidity recovery rates will approach 90-100%, aiding fine fuel recovery while briefly impacting early morning operational visibility and burn windows for fire crews.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.