textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected through early evening across the northern tier of the Mid-South. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats.

- High temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 90s starting Sunday, with heat index values rising to at or above 105 degrees across most of the Mid-South through next week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area Sunday and an Extreme Heat Watch for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The main forecast concern for this afternoon is an MCV moving across portions of Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Water Vapor satellite trends showed an MCV located over south central Missouri within a region of nearly zonal flow aloft. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends indicate remnant showers and thunderstorms southeast Missouri late early this afternoon with new development across the northern third of the Mid-South. Otherwise, the remainder of the Mid-South remains rain-free and mostly sunny with temperatures in the middle 80s with high surface dewpoints in the 70s.

Latest mesoanalysis yields a moist and unstable atmosphere across the area with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg, 20-30 kts shear, and precipitable water values averaging around 2 inches, nearing the 99th percentile for this time of the year. Short-term model trends suggest this MCV will move east into this afternoon across portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys along the MO/KY border. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with severe storms. Rain chances will diminish this evening as the MCV departs from the Mid-South. The Flood Watch for the northern third of the Mid-South will remain in effect and may be cancelled sometime this evening if precipitation moves out earlier than forecast.

The main impact for much of next week is the potential for dangerous heat across the Mid-South as a 595 dm upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures under this ridge are expected to rise into the middle 90s to around 100 degrees with low-level moisture producing heat index values between 105 to 110 degrees into most of next week. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most locations Sunday, except northeast Mississippi, where heat index values are expected to range between 105 to 107 degrees. Thereafter, an Excessive Heat Watch has also been included to cover much of next week as heat- related advisories and warnings are expected to occur across the entire forecast area with little if any relief from the heat occurring at night as nightly lows will be in the middle to upper 70s. Long-term model trends indicate the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during peak heating towards late next week. This limited convective activity will only bring limited relief from the heat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with gusty southwest winds. VFR clouds will remain across the region through tonight with winds gusts decreasing in intensity through tonight. VFR cumulus will develop again tomorrow morning alongside an increase in southwesterly wind gusts, which are expected to impact MEM/MKL/JBR at around 20 knots. These conditions will prevail through the rest of the forecast period, aside from MEM where a decrease in gusts is expected after 00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot and precipitation-free conditions are forecast to return to the Mid-South beginning Sunday and persist into next week. High surface moisture will keep relative humidity values above 40 percent.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113- 115.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001- 002-007-008-010>012-020.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.