textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Saturday, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain chances early next week, though widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing temperatures closer to (though still above) normal for late September.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A 599 dam ridge remains centered over Arkansas as of Thursday evening. This ridge will continue to slowly inch southwestward as broad troughing emerges over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the intensity of the ridge, the area wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Saturday. The trough will gradually impinge on the ridge projecting heights to fall to around 590 dam by Sunday morning. Uncertainty remains regarding whether the Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Sunday. Dewpoints are trending towards the low to mid 60s, but air temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. For now, we will monitor these trends and the evolution of height falls.

A subtle synoptic change is favored for early next week as the aforementioned trough targets a weak cold front at the Mid-South on Monday. This will bring isolated to scattered PoPs into the forecast during the afternoon and evening, but appreciable rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Probabilities of receiving 0.25" of rainfall are less than 20%. Subtle ridging will build in quickly behind the boundary, but so far guidance does not depict an anomalous ridge as we are currently experiencing.

Wednesday could be the first hint at 'relief', though still 8- 10 degrees above normal for the end of September. NBM percentiles have a large spread, 9-12 degree differences between the 25th and 75th percentile; so most of the guidance is favoring a slight cooldown. This seems to be due to troughing being projected set up across the eastern CONUS. For now, continue to practice heat safety and follow any local burn bans.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the period as upper level high pressure persists.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

An unusually persistent 600-dam upper-level ridge centered over the region will maintain near-record, midsummer-like heat and rain-free conditions. Afternoon minimum relative humidity (RH) values will range from 30% to 40%, slowly drying out 10-hour fine fuels. However, because high pressure will keep 20-foot surface winds under 10 mph, widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Clear skies and light overnight winds will result in minimal to non-existent fog potential.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.