textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Above-normal temperatures will continue into Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s across much of the Mid-South.

- A notable pattern shift will arrive on Friday, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Mostly dry and seasonal weather is forecast by next Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Another pleasant day is progressing across the Mid-South with dry conditions and temperatures spanning the 80s. With the persistent, dry conditions, high temperatures will once again warm into the 90s for much of the area by this afternoon. While conditions will not feel as oppressive as they have earlier in the month, this will close out an unseasonably warm and likely record-breaking September across the Mid-South. As climate records stand currently, Memphis, Jackson, and Jonesboro will likely all break their average temperature records for the month of September, with Tupelo right on the edge of tying or exceeding their record. Climate records will be finalized after today; however, September 2026 will certainly go down in the record books in some capacity. Dry conditions will persist through Thursday with high pressure remaining in place to our east and high temperatures once again expected to reach the low 90s.

By Friday, a notable pattern shift will arrive across the Mid- South as a low-pressure system currently bringing heavy rainfall west of the region shifts across the Southeast. Guidance around this system has continued to struggle, both on the timing of the frontal boundary descending from the northwest as well as how much precipitation the Mid-South will see as a result. As things stand currently, this does not appear to be an entire washout for the Mid-South, but a healthy, much-needed rain event. The initial front will arrive on Friday, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the day with PWAT values surging to 1.75 to 2 inches across the area. This front will stall generally across or just to the south of the area, keeping chances in the forecast through Saturday into early Sunday. The boundary will finally be ushered out of the area Sunday into early Monday. Currently, LREF probabilities have about a 40-50% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rainfall along and south of the I-40 corridor, with less than a 20% chance of exceeding 2 inches through Sunday evening. These probabilities are low considering deterministic output is painting up to 2 inches across northeast Mississippi, although latest runs have been showing a downward trend. While an inch of rainfall is welcome considering many did not even receive that much rainfall for the entire month of September, this does not appear to be a drought-busting rainfall event. From a severe weather standpoint, there does not appear to be much in the way of upper-level support, with guidance showing a modest, skinny CAPE profile on soundings. While convection could increase our rainfall totals, severe weather appears to be unlikely.

By Monday, a mostly dry and seasonable forecast emerges across the area as a weak upper-level ridge develops by midweek. Current forecast trends favor daily high temperatures spanning the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s. These values would be around to just below normal for the beginning of October, which is certainly welcome given the anomalously warm September we have recently experienced.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with a diurnal Cu field developing this afternoon and again on Thursday. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts this afternoon and will likely remain above 7 kts overnight at MEM. We could experience some minor compression issues overnight as the southerly low- level jet increases to 30-40 kts. Did not introduce LLWS at this time, but we'll be keeping an eye on this potential. MEM/JBR are expected to experience gusts approaching 20 kts Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values remaining in the 30 to 40% range this afternoon and 40 to 50% range Thursday afternoon. Additional moisture will return to the region on Friday through the upcoming weekend, with a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.