textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- A warm front will lift north through the area on Saturday, spreading chances for showers and thunderstorms northward across most of Mid-South.

- A couple of upper-level disturbances and an approaching cold front will result in higher chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Reduced visibility over north Mississippi may occur through sunrise Saturday as low dewpoint depressions encourage patchy fog development. Given cloudy conditions, the precise extent of the fog will be limited. Any fog that does develop should lift by mid- morning. The remainder of Saturday will be defined by a retreating warm front, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-South. Coverage will be greatest in the afternoon for portions of north Mississippi. Elsewhere, a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will continue on Sunday as the aforementioned boundary places the Mid-South in a warm sector. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as mid-morning, but the greater concern will be a decaying MCS coming out of Missouri in the evening hours. Severe weather ingredients will be on the decline at this time, with both the HRRR and RRFS depicting an elevated mixed layer over the Mid-South. This feature will limit upscale storm growth for the majority of the region, though a few severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out as the activity moves into northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is in place for this area on Sunday.

The upcoming work week will be defined by several shortwave disturbances, bringing daily chances for rain. Afternoon highs will remain just below normal for this time of year. Depending on where storms develop next week, precipitation totals will vary. However, the LREF is painting a 40 to 60 percent chance of greater than 2 inches of rain falling areawide through next Friday. This total is subject to change, but we will continue to monitor trends for a potential flooding threat.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A stalled boundary remains south of the area across central MS. Expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the night with no precipitation anticipated. This front will lift northward as a warm front tomorrow, increasing TSRA potential at MEM and TUP by midday. Included PROB30 for TSRA during the afternoon hours at both terminals. Convection will be diurnally enhanced, with a decrease in intensity and coverage following sunset. Winds will remain light from the ENE tonight, shifting S tomorrow before weakening below 5 kts tomorrow night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain over 40% with a typical, humid summertime pattern. Daily wetting rain chances will exist through the end of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.