textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Hot and humid weather is expected through the next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee on Monday. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed through most of the week.

- There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of the week into next weekend. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 594 dm upper ridge is centered over the Southern Plains while a 1024 mb surface high is centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, light southerly winds are advecting higher dewpoints, in the lower 70s, into areas east of the Mississippi River. Dewpoints are still fairly low west of the Mississippi River, mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The upper ridge will continue to expand over the Mid-South this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. The increased humidity will result in some triple-digit heat index values mainly east of the MS River this afternoon.

Southerly winds will spread lower to perhaps mid 70s dewpoints over the entire Mid-South on Monday. As the upper ridge continues to strengthen, expect the highest temperatures over western sections of the Mid-South. The humidity combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will result in heat index values of 105F or more across east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 pm on Monday for those aforementioned areas.

Heat headlines will likely expand across the entire Mid-South as the upper ridge persists through the week and the heat and humidity builds. Highs in the mid to upper 90s will continue into next weekend along with humid conditions. A few locations will probably hit the low 100s across the Delta.

A weak disturbance moving westward through the Deep South may result in a few isolated showers of thunderstorms late in the week into next weekend. There is some indication that the ridge may retrograde west by late next weekend as a trough develops over the eastern CONUS. This may push a back door cold front through with slightly lower temperatures and lower humidities.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with south winds 7- 10 kts through sunset. Winds will remain from the south around 3- 5kts overnight and resume around 7 kts tomorrow. A few of the CAMs are hinting at some shower development within the Cu field tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is low that the column will be moist enough to support this development, but it will be monitored in upcoming model runs.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Humidity levels will increase and minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40 percent through the upcoming work week. 20-foot winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph through the work week as well. However, fuels will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019- 020-048>051-088-089.