textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Heat and humidity will persist through the end of the week with daily highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Daily bouts of showers and storms resume Friday and continue into the middle of next week.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs in the low 80s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A large upper level trough will traverse the northern plains today, ejecting a cold front southeast. Ahead of this boundary, the Mid-South will remain influenced by a high pressure ridge. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices hovering just below 105.

Unsettled weather will return late tonight into Friday as the aforementioned front pushes into the region. The greatest height falls will remain displaced north of the forecast area, limiting the potential for organized convection. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend as the boundary stalls over central Mississippi and retreats north. Severe weather potential through Sunday will be limited due to lackluster shear. However, surface instability in excess of 1500 J/kg will encourage a few strong storms each day. Most of the region should receive 1 to 2 inches of rain through Sunday evening.

Large-scale troughing will develop over central CONUS on Monday, setting the stage for unsettled weather through at least midweek. On Tuesday, an embedded shortwave trough will become absorbed within broader-scale trough amplification. This interaction will send yet another cold front towards the Mid-South. The latest LREF maintains a 15 to 20 percent chance of overlapping severe weather ingredients Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. While this remains low, the shear profile is noticeably more conducive for more organized storms with bulk shear around 45 kts. It remains too early to tell specifics, but the greatest chance for any severe weather will likely be in the Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday timeframe. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be around 10 degrees below normal next week with highs in the low 80s.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue through at least 06Z at all TAF sites. A line of SHRA, low chance TSRA, will move in from NW to SE around to after 06Z. Have kept mention as PROB30s for MEM and MKL at this point due to low confidence as the line moves SE, but did go prevailing at JBR as they have the best chance of seeing temporary category drops. This line is expected to lose strength as it enters to airspace, so confidence with respect to timing and overall impacts remains very low. Otherwise, SW winds continue with increases to 10 to 15 kts through the daytime with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts mainly for MEM and JBR. Winds will shift to NW behind the frontal boundary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances resume Friday and will persist into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.