textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and treacherous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

UPDATE

Issued at 558 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The winter storm is in full swing across the Mid-South. Heavy snow has developed across much of the northern half of the Mid-South. Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 to 1/2 mile across much of eastern Arkansas into southwest Tennessee with snowfall rates around an inch and hour. Very strong warm air advection is underway across Arkansas and that is edging into the Mid-South. The KNQA dual pol products are indicating sleet along and south of a Wynne AR to Memphis into northeast Mississippi. This line will move steadily ENE over the next few hours with heavy snow north of this line continuing. Freezing rain will start developing over north Mississippi over the next few hours. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly areawide over the next few hours. Avoid travel. No major changes to forecast. Crippling ice across north Mississippi into southern parts of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Heavy sleet with light icing is expected along the I-40 corridor with heavy snow and some sleet at times across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Winter precipitation has kicked off in the Mississippi Delta, where radar imagery depicts an area of light reflectivity. A few snow reports have trickled in from Helena, Arkansas which marks the official beginning of what will be a potentially historic winter weather event in the Mid-South. Temperatures across the region continue to drop rapidly with areas near Kentucky already in the upper teens with dewpoints below zero. This frigid air will continue to sink south overnight. Wintry precipitation will become more widespread over the next several hours as southwest flow aloft continues to bring elevated moisture into the Mid- South. The results: a mixed bag of wintry precipitation that will result in varying impacts depending on your location within the forecast area.

Initial precipitation type for areas along and north of the TN/MS border is favored to be snow due to the absence of a prominent warm nose, leaving the entire air column below freezing. Further south, freezing rain and sleet are anticipated. This forecast becomes messy by sunrise Saturday as model guidance continues to develop a stout warm nose spanning from 700 to 850 mb. A changeover from snow to sleet is anticipated for areas along the I-40 corridor, stretching into the northernmost areas of Mississippi. These areas will mainly see sleet through the remainder of the event, but brief periods of freezing rain cannot be ruled out. Further north, snow will be the predominant precipitation type. Snow totals will max out in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Anywhere form 6-8 inches of snow may fall in this region through Sunday afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor through 6PM Sunday.

A more crippling forecast is taking shape for areas in northeast Mississippi, where ice accumulations are forecast to approach 1 inch through Sunday. In this area, the aforementioned warm nose will be much deeper: spanning from 700 mb to just above the surface. This will result in a freezing rain regime that lasts the majority of the event. One thing to note is that ice accumulations will have a sharp drop off depending on where the most favorable environment sets up. Areas in northwest Mississippi may lie in the axis of sleet, resulting in lower ice totals. This potential is reflected in the current forecast with areas along the Mississippi River forecast to see less than 0.25 inches of ice. On the other end of the state, near the Alabama border, temperatures hovering around freezing will discourage the accumulation of ice. In particular, Monroe County may only see a light glaze of ice. In between these two locations, however, will be a different story. The highest ice accumulations will exist in an area stretching from Tallahatchie County, Mississippi northeast to Hardin County, Tennessee. Ice totals in excess of 1 inch are possible in this area. Regardless of precise accumulations, hazardous conditions will occur as infrastructure struggles underneath the weight of ice. Weather- related power outages are anticipated along with slow response times to emergencies due to hazardous travel. We encourage everyone to stay home until roadways become passable.

Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations will be here to stay for the foreseeable future as temperatures remain below freezing well into next week. Single digit and negative lows are forecast for Monday and Tuesday mornings, further aggravating infrastructure and potentially leading to pipe bursts multiple days after the winter storm ceased. This prolonged cold will keep roadways treacherous, so we advise everyone to remain home into the beginning of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Watch are in effect for portions of the Mid-South due to these frigid temperatures. Portions of the Extreme Cold Watch may be upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning as we get closer to Monday and Tuesday. A brief "warm up" will occur on Wednesday with temperatures approaching 32 degrees. Some guidance warms the Mid- South above freezing. However, potential for this will be unlikely as models are notorious for struggling to account for snow pack and associated cooler temperatures. A reinforcing front will arrive Wednesday afternoon, dropping lows into the single digits once again by Friday morning. It remains too early to tell the potential for a late week system, so for now remain focused on our current conditions and remaining warm.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Conditions are deteriorating quickly across the area as snow and sleet are spreading eastward. Only TAF site currently not experiencing precipitation is KTUP and it should begin shortly. CIGS and VSBYS will stay low through the period with the ongoing winter precipitation. Still expecting mainly snow at KJBR, PL at KMEM and KMKL, and FZRA at KTUP. Gusty NE winds will gradually weaken over the area with a turn to the north by the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Accumulating wintry precipitation will begin tonight that will last through the majority of the weekend. Very cold air is expected to accompany the wintry precipitation, but the cold air will persist through the week. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 011>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.