textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- An areawide freeze is forecast Saturday morning with lows spanning the upper 20s to lower 30s.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through Sunday with daily highs in the 50s.

- Dry conditions are anticipated over the next 7 days, likely worsening the current drought.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A Continental Polar air mass continues to bring cold and dry air to the Mid-South today. Early morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s, which is about 15 degrees different from this time yesterday. This air mass will persist into the weekend as broad troughing continues to encompass eastern CONUS. Tonight, an areawide freeze is forecast with lows spanning the upper 20s to lower 30s. The chilliest conditions will manifest over west Tennessee, where a hard freeze (temperatures below 28 degrees) is forecast. Chilly mornings with afternoon highs in the 50s will be in place through Sunday.

By early next week, the synoptic-level pattern will begin to shift as an upper level low develops over the Four Corners Region. This feature will dive southeast and clip the upper Mississippi Delta late Sunday into Monday. Given the presence of dry air over the Mid-South, widespread showers are not anticipated with this system. A few drops may be able to squeeze through to the surface in the Delta early Monday, but totals will be negligible. Gradual air mass modification will occur through the middle of next week as upper level ridging takes shape. Temperatures will warm into the 60s by Wednesday with 70s forecast by next Friday. Dry conditions will remain, likely worsening the current drought.

Long-range guidance is starting to hint at a system developing over the Plains next weekend. If this manifests, it would provide our next shot at rain. However, there are significant inconsistencies regarding this system, so for now expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A high pressure over the upper Great Plains will continue to bring in northerly winds at around 5 - 10 knots with some occasional gusts around 18 knots until the early evening hours. Low level clouds are present NE of MKL and will dissipate overnight. Winds will diminish to 5 knots or less this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dry air will persist through the forecast period. Despite this, minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 30 percent. This, combined with light 20 ft winds, will negate fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.