textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong non-thunderstorm winds will occur this morning through mid afternoon along and west of the Mississippi River.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into late Tuesday evening across the majority of the Mid-South. Damaging winds is the primary threat, with a secondary threat for a brief tornado and localized heavy rainfall.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air expected by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Severe thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure system pushes across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of thunderstorm activity, the pressure gradient will tighten across the forecast area. The strongest gradient winds will exist west of the Mississippi River over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Sustained speeds of 25 mph with gusts nearing 40 mph are forecast. As such, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 8AM for the aforementioned areas.

A typical cool season severe weather setup will be in place by Tuesday afternoon, characterized by bulk shear of 40 kts and MUCAPE approaching 450 J/kg. The main environmental factors storms will need to overcome for higher severe thresholds will be meager lapse rates and persistent cloud cover. The most likely scenario for Tuesday afternoon and evening is a messy line of storms that primarily poses a damaging wind threat for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Looping hodographs and decent low-level turning indicate potential for brief, spin-up tornadoes embedded within the parent line of storms. As this activity crosses the river, it will encounter less instability. A few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out through the overnight hours, but the primary severe weather window will be through late evening. Thereafter, the threat transitions to more of a flooding concern as precipitable water values approach the 99th percentile. Storm total rainfall remains between one and two inches.

Dry air will filter in behind Tuesday's system with temperatures remaining climatologically normal for early November. By the end of the week, a shortwave will eject out of the Rockies. This system will bring a cold front into the Mid-South on Friday. Given the dry air in place, widespread rainfall is not anticipated with FROPA. Instead, expect cooler temperatures through the weekend as daily highs remain in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. There is potential for frost development both Sunday and Monday mornings. However, since the Mid-South entered the end of its growing season on November 1st, no frost headlines are anticipated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through mid-morning ahead of an approaching upper-level low and cold front. Strong gradient winds are expected to develop by late morning at KJBR and KMEM, with gusts nearing 30 knots through mid-afternoon. The cold front will cross all terminals from this afternoon into late evening, bringing scattered to widespread thunderstorms; TEMPO groups have been included for all sites to reflect the highest risk timing. Following frontal passage, confidence is medium for post-frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings building across KMEM, KMKL, and KTUP through the end of the TAF period.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, lasting into Wednesday morning. While precipitation chances will dwindle thereafter, moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.