textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous heat will continue through at least next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday. Heat index values will range from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly east of the Mississippi River. No significant rainfall is expected and coverage should be less than on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Bottom line up front: Unseasonable heat will continue across the Midsouth for at least the next 10 days.

GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to depict anomalously strong and persistent upper level ridging over the Midsouth through the next 15 days. By this weekend, the upper ridge center will retrograde to the southern plains, placing the Midsouth under weak northerly flow aloft. A weak backdoor surface cold front will pass through early Sunday. But without a backing cold airmass, this front is probably better referred to as a wind shift. 850mb temps will range from 22-25C, with surface temperatures likely reaching 100F in several locations Sunday afternoon. The Heat Advisory has been extended through Sunday, based on drybulb temps and the persistence of the heat.

Ensemble model consensus continues to show the upper ridge center returning east, likely settling over Ozarks by the middle of next week. The effective ridge, or "heat dome", will extend from the 4-corners region, to the Carolinas. The main branch of the westerlies will remain well to the north, from the northern Rockies to the northern Great Lakes.

As in previous days, NBM continued to be 3-5 degrees to warm on dewpoints on Thursday. This morning's official dewpoint forecast will be a 50/50 mix of CONShort and NBM deterministic out through 12Z Sunday. In addition, minor downward adjustments were made to overnight lows, to more closely match persistence in the relatively drier air.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions continue. Isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, but confidence in location is too low to include thunder in the TAFs at this time. Variable winds are generally expected for much of the period, 7 kts or less during the daytime and becoming light overnight.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but with less coverage than Thursday and with very low chances of wetting rainfall. While winds will remain light through the next several days, hot temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity of 35 to 40 percent. A weak cold front will pass through early Sunday. This front will switch winds to the north/ northeast and lower minimum relative humidity to 30 to 35 percent. Due to dry soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected over the next several days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.