textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through Friday with high temperatures spanning the mid 80s to low 90s.

- While uncertainty remains, the eventual remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to impact the Mid-South by Saturday. Main impacts at this time are periods of gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph and heavy rainfall, with amounts between 1 to 3 inches.

- Any precipitation from Isaias will move out sometime on Sunday, leaving behind a dry and seasonable forecast into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A beautiful day is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the upper 70s to low 80s. Generally dry and pleasant, albeit a little warm, weather conditions are expected through this upcoming Friday as weak upper-level, northwesterly flow shifts to a more zonal flow pattern. High temperatures for today are still on track to reach the 80s for much of the area, with a few locations closing in on the low 90s across our southern tier of counties. High temperatures will likely be a few more degrees higher on Thursday and Friday, with much of the Mid-South in the upper 80s to low 90s. While these values are several degrees above normal for early to mid October, dew point temperatures will remain in the 50s, so it will not feel too unpleasant outside.

Late Friday night and into Saturday, our focus will turn to the south as Isaias moves onshore. There is still significant uncertainty with the eventual path and strength of the system, especially as it gets enveloped with the upper-level flow pattern. As things stand for the Mid-South, the main concerns related to the eventual remnants of Isaias will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Both of these threats appear to be most prominent east of the Mississippi River, especially across northeast Mississippi and along the TN River. The westward extent of these impacts will be greatly dependent on the eventual track of the circulation itself, which is still a day or two away from being fully resolved. Most of any impacts would be through the daytime on Saturday and into the late evening hours. As things stand, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph seem likely, with the chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph currently less than 10% for our area. As far as heavy rainfall, this will be highly dependent on the path of the remnants as well. Generally 1 to 3 inches of rainfall appears to be the most probable, with the lowest amounts west and highest amounts east. Latest NBM guidance does have a 30 to 40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches across northeast Mississippi, which would likely be the high end of the event. If higher end totals were to materialize, this would increase the threat for flooding. Any threat for severe thunderstorms or tornadoes will likely remain to the east of our area with the current projected path.

By Sunday afternoon, any lingering remnants of Isaias will quickly push off to our northeast, leaving behind a dry and seasonable forecast into next week. Zonal flow will develop aloft, with a surface high pressure developing into the middle of next week. This will keep high temperatures just above normal for the middle of October, with high temperatures spanning the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High pressure will continue dominating the airspace this issuance. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail across all TAF sites.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Dry conditions will persist through Friday, with minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range. Shower and thunderstorm chances as well as gusty winds will arrive on Saturday as the eventual remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias move either through or just east of the Mid-South. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is generally expected. Dry conditions will return to the region by Sunday afternoon and persist into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.