textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect today, with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110, and actual high temperatures ranging from 98 to 104. A weak frontal boundary will serve as a focus for a few thunderstorms over northern Mississippi this afternoon.

- For Monday, lower humidity will accompany highs in the mid to upper 90s. Those temperatures will continue through Thursday, as humidity returns, possibly necessitating a return of a Heat Advisory.

- A cold front will bring slight chances of rain late Thursday into Friday. Following this frontal passage high temperatures may moderate to the lower and mid 90s by next weekend - still well above normal.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Summer continues to hang on for the Midsouth, courtesy of a persistent high amplitude upper level ridge. The Midsouth will remain under the eastern periphery of this ridge today, which is centered over the southern plains. Weak northerly flow aloft will provide modest deep layer shear and will support a cold frontal passage through the region late this morning through early evening. With no cold air backing the front, it will have little to no effect on temperatures, but may drop dewpoints into mid 60s over northwest TN by mid afternoon. Further south, several CAMs depict scattered showers and thunderstorms forming near the front as it passes through a relatively humid airmass over north MS in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts can't be ruled out, given the inverted-V soundings and DCAPE near 1500 J/kg, as projected by the HRRR.

The upper ridge will expand to the east on Monday, over the dry post-frontal airmass. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will accompany highs in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Minimum RH will likely drop below 30 percent on Monday. With drying live vegetation Monday will present some fire weather concerns. Fortunately, light winds are expected by Monday afternoon.

Humidity will return Tuesday, as high temperatures prevail around 10 degrees above normal (mid/upper 90s). This pattern will continue through early Thursday, under a flat upper level ridge. Heat Advisories may return for the midweek periods. By late Thursday, a northern branch trough will pass through the Great Lakes, resulting in modest midlevel height falls over the Midsouth. Medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to the timing of these height falls and an associated cold frontal passage through the Midsouth. In any case, post-frontal temperatures would likely remain 3-5 degrees above normal in the favorable scenario for next weekend. Memphis has not recorded a below normal high temperature since August 8th.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as high pressure dominates the region. Isolated chances for thunderstorms will exist at TUP in the mid afternoon into early evening hours warranting the inclusion of a PROB30 for such. This weak boundary will also bring a wind shift to the northeast by mid-morning. Northeast winds will remain less than 10 kts over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A weak cold front will pass through West Tennessee this afternoon and serve as a focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over northern Mississippi this afternoon. This front will have little to no effect on temperatures. Drier air will lag behind the front and will spread into the Midsouth on Monday. With highs in the mid to upper 90s, Monday's minimum relative humidity will drop to 25 to 35 percent. Humidity will moderate on Tuesday, with little change on Wednesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.