textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A large cutoff low continues to spin over the Southern Plains as of 12Z this morning. The southern stream trough is centered over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, keeping us in this active wet pattern. There's a swath of light precip on radar surging up associated with a surface low meandering northward across Mississippi. This convective activity will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the afternoon as the warm front lifts north, encouraging a wave of showers and thunderstorms very similar to what we've seen over the last few days.

With the amount of moisture in the column in conjunction with mostly light winds overnight, at least some patchy fog development is supported areawide overnight into Tuesday morning. HREF depicts a 30-50% chance of visibilities < 4 miles, which is a good threshold for patchy fog. Moving into Tuesday and Wednesday, a persistence forecast is expected to unfold in the afternoons with sporadic showers and thunderstorms each day. The surface pattern looks very messy with several weak fronts and shortwave troughs, leading to a very summer-like convective regime of single celled thunderstorms this week given the lack of shear. The best coverage will peak during afternoon heating between 12PM and 8PM each day. Individual storms may produce locally heavy rainfall with the help of PWATs near 2 inches, but there is little to no synoptic support for a threat of heavy rainfall for the next few days.

The long range forecast suggests we will remain in this wet pattern at least through the end of the weekend. Longwave troughing aloft will remain in place, allowing enough large scale lift to promote daily rain chances above 60% through Saturday. LREF depicts a modified omega block emerging over the central CONUS next week, curbing PoPs a bit. Temperatures stay very consistently near normal through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Mid-South TAFs will follow a near-persistence pattern through Tuesday afternoon as a tropical-like air mass remains in place. The primary impacts for aviation will remain low CIGs, which will be most common from pre-dawn to mid-morning. There also remains a potential for IFR VIS overnight, prior to low CIG formation.

TSRA potential appears limited to TUP, associated with a northward surge of convection from east central MS this afternoon. Elsewhere, convective instability will limit TS potential below mentionable levels in the TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.