textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

-Significant river flooding will continue this week.

-Cool and dry weather is expected through Wednesday. -Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows drop into the 30s in some places.

-Increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Skies have finally cleared across the Mid-South, as seen from GOES east satellite. Although the weather is sunny and fair, significant flooding impacts continue across the region this afternoon. Record river flooding persists on the Obion River near Obion. Areas downstream will also remain impacted as water will route down through Bogota and also affect the North Fork Forked Deer River at Dyersburg. Many roads remain closed throughout Dyer and Obion counties. This threat will extend through at least late week. Another area of areal and river flooding concern is over northeast Arkansas, where the Black River, Little River and St. Francis River are all in various levels of flooding with numerous roads impacted or closed throughout each respective county.

The Mid-South will remain entrenched in northwest flow aloft. This will allow a reinforcing front to pass through the Mid-South late tonight. There is a frost advisory in effect across portions of NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and a sizable portion of west Tennessee. Although winds will remain elevated, temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler today with highs in the low to mid 50s. A surface high will become centered over the Tennessee River Valley tomorrow night and allow prime radiational cooling to occur. Another frost advisory is likely for areas east of the Mississippi River. Current HREF guidance suggests that temperatures will remain above the freezing mark, so a freeze watch was forgone at this time.

A surface low will track across the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday and lift a warm front through the region. A shortwave will track across the region on Thursday and spawn showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South. Model guidance continues to increase the amount of QPF Thursday night through Friday morning. QPF totals will remain below an inch. Dry conditions will return on Friday.

Temperatures will moderate this weekend as both upper level and surface high pressure build in over the region. Highs will peak in the mid 70s by Sunday.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Predominantly VFR conditions will continue across the airspace behind a cold front. Northwest winds will remain a little gusty, up to 20 kts, through 00Z. Winds will then become light and shift more north/northeast overnight.

AEH

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.