textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Tropical Depression 9 will likely intensify and become Tropical Storm Isaias later today over the western Gulf. Isaias will likely further intensify to a hurricane before making landfall on the central Gulf coast late Friday evening.

- Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity of this tropical system at landfall, and the eventual track thereafter. At this early time, the primary impacts for the Midsouth will likely be gusty winds and rain early Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Areas near the Tennessee River will likely experience the most rain, with up to 3 inches possible.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Dry and very warm conditions will prevail through Friday, underneath broad upper level ridging. While daytime highs average 10 to 15 degrees above normal, the relatively dry air will cool efficiently at night. This dry air will also result in continued elevated wildland fire danger, which may peak on Friday, as winds and subsidence around the remnants of tropical system Isaias approach.

Regarding TD9 / Isaias, intensification to tropical storm status is expected later today. This system is currently forecast to intensify to hurricane strength over the central Gulf Thursday evening, with winds of 85 knots forecast at landfall Friday evening. Current NHC forecasts show most likely landfall to be near the MS/AL border. Isaias may quickly weaken post-landfall, as it encounters shear. The remnant low center is currently forecast to track over far northeast MS Saturday afternoon, then accelerate through the TN River Valley TN Saturday evening.

A weak low over the TX coastal plain will aid Isaias' relatively quick northward track post-landfall. The fast forward motion will limit rainfall potential, which should average 1-3 inches east of the MS River, with up to 4 inches locally near the TN River. Winds from Isaias will likely reach Wind Advisory criteria east of the MS River, if current track and intensity forecasts pan out.

An upper level ridge over TX at the start of the upcoming workweek will amplify as it lifts into the lower and middle MS River Valley by the middle of next week. Daytime highs in the 80s appear likely to continue into mid-October.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Winds will be light and variable this morning and again tonight. Prevailing daytime winds will be westerly at 3-5 kt. Patchy fog remains possible near TUP and MKL; however, confidence is low as recent guidance indicates less favorable conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Minimum RH will prevail in the 25 to 35 percent range through Friday, before wetting rainfall from a tropical system currently developing in the Gulf arrives on Saturday. Increasing winds on Friday may result in wildland fire danger reaching a peak on Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.