textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous heat will continue through at least mid-September. An areawide Heat Advisory is currently in effect through Saturday. Heat index values will range from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today over northwest Mississippi. No significant rainfall is expected.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The primary weather concern remains the intense heat. Jonesboro and NWS Memphis recorded high temperatures of 101 degrees on Wednesday, while the Memphis airport reached a high of 100. These temperatures are not out of the question across much of the Midsouth over the next several days, given little change in the weather pattern.

Wednesday's 19Z NBM, upon which the evening forecast is based, continued the recent trend of being 3-5 degrees too high on dewpoints, and perhaps a degree too cool on daytime temperatures. The majority of the Midsouth is below the 10th percentile soil moisture. Much of eastern Arkansas, and areas of West Tennessee to the north and east of Memphis, have soil moisture below the 2nd percentile. This may be impacting the NBM dewpoints. The official forecast will blend two parts CONSShort guidance with one part NBM for dewpoints through Friday. The net result leaves us at or above Heat Advisory criteria, but below Extreme Heat Warning criteria for most locations. Similar to Wednesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over northwest MS, and may provide localized temporary relief from the heat.

For the longer term, both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb height progs depict the upper level ridge center retrograding from the Midsouth to the southern plains by this weekend. This will bring light north/northeast flow aloft to the Midsouth, but have only modest effect on surface temperatures. Looking toward the middle of next week, both ensemble model systems show the upper ridge expanding back to the east, extending from the southern plains through the Midsouth and the Southeast. This pattern continues for at least another week, past September 16th. We may be in for one of our hottest Septembers, barring a significant pattern shift late in the month.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light winds and VFR will continue at all Midsouth TAF sites, as a strong upper level ridge dominates the weather. Isolated SHRA/TSRA should remain south of the MEM 25 mile VCNTY ring Thursday afternoon.

TUP TAF retains an AMD NOT SKED during non-staffed ATCT hours due to ASOS comms outage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over north central and northwest Mississippi today. Wetting rainfall chances will be extremely limited. While winds will remain light through the next several days, hot temperatures over the Midsouth will result in minimum relative humidity of 35 to 45 percent. Due to dry soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected. .

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.