textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will arise Monday afternoon through much of the week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Relatively cooler weather will remain across the Mid-South into the early portions of this week as an area of surface high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to push cooler air south. So, temperatures on Monday will remain quite moderated and around normal with lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s. Evening upper air observations from both LZK and OHX show the presence of very dry air not only at the surface, but aloft. Diurnal mixing of this drier layer is expected to bring dewpoints well below the current NBM forecast (~40 F) down into the middle 30s throughout the entire region. Given the lack of appreciable rainfall over the past month, or potentially longer in some places, fuels are very dry and will lead to elevated fire danger and the potential for spreading wildfires across the Mid-South through Monday afternoon.

Upper ridging will gradually build in through the middle of the week with a ridge axis from Texas through Minnesota emerging from the upper pattern. Ironically, the surface high over the Ohio River Valley and Midwest will weaken with time, or at least the pressure gradient over the southern CONUS will drop to negligible levels. This will effectively nullify any advection of cooler air during daytime hours, and with no moisture return on the horizon, will lead to drastic diurnal temperature swings. Lows on Tuesday are currently forecast to be between 40 and 50 degrees, jumping nearly 30 to 35 degrees by the afternoon hours with highs projected in the middle 70s and low 80s. Models are in good agreement that this pattern will likely persist through the rest of this week, leading to a gradual warming trend to above-average highs alongside no rainfall. Fire weather danger will likely remain a concern as well with no moisture relief or precipitation to wet fuels.

By next weekend, ensembles are in good agreement that the upper ridge axis will have only moved slightly east, oriented from Texas through Michigan Saturday. Spread does increase into Sunday, but even then, the mean solution is for residual upper ridging to remain over the Mid-South. Therefore, it seems likely that more dry weather and above-average temperatures will persist through this weekend and the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

No aviation concerns this period as VFR CIGs and light winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Elevated fire conditions will exist Monday as low humidity and very dry fuels are expected to be present. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the entire Fire Weather Forecast Area. Current expectations are for dewpoint values to drop into the low to middle 30s Monday afternoon, leading to minimum relative humidity values between 20 and 30 percent. Additionally, FEMS 10-hour fuel forecasts call for fuel moisture content values around or slightly below 10 percent at nearly all forecast points in the area. 20-foot winds will remain relatively light, only maximizing around 10 mph from the northeast, keeping higher fire danger concerns limited.

Surface high pressure will settle in for the rest of the forecast, leading to minimal changes in the forecast through the rest of this week. So, expect additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements through the week under similar conditions to Monday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.