textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low 80s.

- An active pattern kicks off on Tuesday. There is a low chance (5-15%) of severe weather both Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.

- Dry and cool conditions return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

After a nice, cool weekend, we'll kick off the work week with a warming trend. A tightening pressure gradient in between a strong Bermuda High and an approaching cold front will give way to gusty southwest winds at the surface on Monday. Expect sustained winds in the 20-25 MPH range for most areas with gusts up to 40 MPH. Per the latest HREF, there is about a 40% chance of meeting Wind Advisory criteria up in the normal problem area of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel on Monday afternoon. Warm, moist Gulf Coast air being advected in will send temperatures just a few degrees above normal Monday with highs right around 80 degrees, but PoPs remain less than 10%.

Moving into Tuesday, a more active pattern kicks off as a deep trough emerges from the Four Corners. As it amplifies on its trek eastward, a broad moisture axis will start overrunning the Mid- South on Tuesday morning. This marks the return of rain chances, though the stronger showers and thunderstorms will not move through until Tuesday evening. The first of two distinct "rounds" of potentially severe weather arrive along a shortwave ahead of the main front after sunset Tuesday. Storm mode looks generally messy and multicellular with bowing segments as the primary hazard overnight into Wednesday. Forecast surface analyses depict this front stalling out along the I-40 corridor some time Wednesday morning, leading to the second round of severe storms this week.

As the cold front makes its final descent through the region on Wednesday afternoon, peak diurnal heating will aid in spicing up the instability for some stronger storms across north Mississippi. Digging into an early look at parameter space, the LREF currently depicts about a 50-70% chance of favorable overlap of MUCAPE (> 500 J/kg) and bulk shear (> 30 kt). Note the use of MUCAPE given the diurnal peak instability coinciding with FROPA timing. With W-E storm motions and slow southward progress of the surface boundary, training storms and PWATs above the 97th percentile (1.5-1.7") will most likely lead to some locally higher QPF axes within the 1-2 inch storm total forecast over these two days. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially Wednesday afternoon across north Mississippi. All in all, prepare for a busy two-day stretch Tuesday and Wednesday while we wait for this cold front to finally pass.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions once again return on Thursday and Friday. However, this break will be short-lived. Another cold front (albeit weak) is forecast to swing through on Saturday, promoting a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Little to no moisture return is available preceding the weekend's front, so any convection is expected to be shallow and weak.

CAD

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Confidence is high for VFR conditions continuing for the next 30 hours. Surface winds will gradually increase overnight due to an increasing pressure gradient, which will result in south winds climbing above threshold at MEM later tonight. Winds will increase further and become gusty on Monday. Gusts will hit 25- 30 kts at MEM and JBR. Marginal LLWS may develop Monday night, though confidence is too low to mention with this TAF cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns this period. Monday will see the lowest RH (near 35%), but humidity and rain chances will increase each day this week as a cold front approaches.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.