textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily beginning Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This morning's upper air analysis depicts an upper level ridge over portions of the Carolinas and the Southeast U.S. with an upper-level trough located over the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft is present from the Southern Plains up to the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region. Latest surface analysis places a surface low over southern Minnesota with a weak cold front trailing southwest into the Central and Southern Plains. A warm and humid atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with 12 PM temperatures in the 80s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over portions of northeast Arkansas. This convective activity is associated with a subtle, but weak mid- level shortwave trough moving across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, with weak mid-level lapse rates and overall shear generally less than 20 kts. Short-term CAMs indicate a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms north of I-40 towards the MO/KY border into this evening but confidence remains low with the overall coverage in the weakly sheared environment.

Short-term models continue to indicate a weak cold front dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Upstream showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken as they move into the Lower Mississippi on Tuesday. This convective activity will eventually produce outflow boundaries, which will provide a focus for afternoon convection. Shear is expected to remain weak with best upper-level support remaining displaced to the north. Thus, convective development is expected to occur mainly during the mid/late afternoon during peak heating with a mostly unorganized pulse type convective mode. Overall confidence remains low with the severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday with the threat waning by early Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime instability.

Mid to long range models indicate this front will remain stalled out across the area through late week. Precipitable water values will remain high around 1.75 inches with any heavy rainfall threat remaining localized in the absence of any appreciable upper-level support. This boundary is anticipated to retreat north as a warm front with rain chances continuing into the weekend, especially during peak heating. Temperatures will remain near normal through most of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions will likely continue through at least the first half of the current TAF period. There is currently some SHRA/TSRA activity across western portions of the airspace, but confidence in any impacts to JBR and MEM are too low to warrant mention at this time. Otherwise, the main area of uncertainty will be generally after 20Z, when TSRA/SHRA moves through the airspace. This could lead to temporary vis/cig drops, but location and timing is highly uncertain. For this reason, have mentioned as a PROB30 for MEM, MKL, JBR, and TUP tomorrow afternoon at this time. Winds will remain southerly, becoming gusty once again by mid-morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.