textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry conditions persisting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A large upper level low will eject out of Baja California today and transform into an open wave over Texas. Ahead of this feature, persistent WAA will be in place over the Mid-South with dewpoints surging to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Instability will exceed 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but ample shear will remain displaced to our north. The latest CAM guidance depicts showers and thunderstorms approaching northeast AR by the late afternoon / early evening hours. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out at this time, though lacking kinematics will limit this potential. Should a severe storm form, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary concerns.

Severe weather chances will continue into Wednesday as the aforementioned wave begins to phase with a northern stream trough. Ongoing morning convection and persistent cloud cover will hinder destabilization over the majority of the Mid-South. As such, a high shear, low CAPE environment appears to be on tap for Wednesday afternoon. Areas in northeast Mississippi will have the greatest chance of seeing CAPE values above 500 J/kg in the afternoon. The latest suite of CAMs is beginning to pick up on this trend, with consensus being a strengthening line of storms developing just before sunset. Damaging winds will be the primary concern with this line. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and exit the Mid-South early Thursday morning.

Temperatures on Thursday will be near normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A warming trend will kick off on Friday with temperatures reaching the mid 70s by Saturday. The upcoming weekend will remain dry, though long range forecasts continue to show a strong cold front swinging into the area late Sunday into Monday. This boundary will increase rain chances through midday Monday. In addition, there is a 35% chance that temperatures will drop to freezing Monday morning.

ANS

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The lower atmosphere has stabilized over most of the Midsouth at 00Z. TSRA will remain possible SW of TUP, in the vicinity through 02Z or so. GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level shortwave trough tracking east over northern AR. Scattered SHRA will likely lift north into north MS through the evening in advance of this feature. At this time, TS potential appears to be below mentionable thresholds.

Similar to the past few evenings, MVFR CIGs will spread north across the airspace this evening, accompanied by marginal LLWS at JBR and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this week. However, widespread wetting rainfall due to showers and thunderstorms will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.