textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Generally benign weather is anticipated Sunday through the end of next week.

- Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early in the week, gradually warming through the work week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A cold frontal boundary continues to slowly cross the Mid-South at this hour with a large stratiform rain shield east of the Mississippi River. As the front continues to slowly dive southeast, drier and cooler conditions will filter in for the Easter holiday. All precipitation will come to an end by sunrise at the very latest and temperatures will warm into the 60s.

Once precipitation comes to an end, dry conditions will prevail until the end of the work week and the focus will be on temperature and dewpoint trends. The Canadian air mass will encompass the region by Monday morning enhancing radiational cooling, which could lead to a light frost across northwest TN, with the LREF only displaying a 15% chance of temperatures less than 36F. Winds are expected to go calm for Monday morning, which could have temperatures trend cooler, so this is something to keep an eye on. Monday and Tuesday will be exceptionally dry in terms of dewpoints resulting in RH values falling below 30%. While some areas received beneficial rainfall, and winds are not expected to be too gusty, please use caution when burning with low relative humidity values and head to any local burn bans.

High temperatures will hover around normal to slightly below through midweek with cool mornings. Surface high pressure will be the dominating feature of this forecast until Wednesday when the region will reside on the back side of the high and southerly flow returns. WAA will return and will allow temperatures to creep back above normal with temperatures being 10-15 degrees above normal by the weekend. Of course with the return of moisture, showers and thunderstorms chances will also return to the forecast for the weekend. Long term guidance still has many discrepancies on weekend rainfall chances, so for now, be sure to enjoy the cooler and dry weather.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front currently bisects the region from southwest to northeast with MEM/JBR on the back side and MKL/TUP still ahead of the boundary. MVFR/IFR CIGs remain ahead of the front alongside -SHRA at TUP. These CIGs will lift to VFR by 09z with rain ending by this time at TUP. VFR will then prevail at all terminals through the end of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots. Wind gusts will increase through this morning and are forecast to reach upwards to 20 knots. Winds will subside by 00z Monday, lasting through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A dry air mass will move into the area with MinRHs around 30 percent. Elevated fire weather concerns may materialize Sunday through Tuesday with warming temperatures. Some areas received beneficial rainfall and may prohibit higher concerns until moisture begins to return by late week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.