textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- High temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to low 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect today and Thursday from 11 AM to 8 PM for portions of the Mid-South.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week with some localized relief from the heat due to rain.

- A drier forecast will return to the Mid-South by Sunday and into next week as high pressure strengthens behind tomorrow's front.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Morning observations show a strong, 597+ dm ridge centered over the southern CONUS. This ridge is forecast to remain at both a similar strength and position through the next several days, leading to near-record temperatures and dangerous heat indices. For this afternoon, temperatures are forecast to peak in the middle to upper 90s. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s will help yield heat index values in excess of 105 F for most of the region, particularly across eastern AR, West TN, and the MO Bootheel. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in place through this evening at 8 PM CDT for the majority of the Mid-South.

To our north, thunderstorms over the Midwest have produced a fairly strong cold pool which has been observed moving south across MO/IL this morning via surface observations and satellite imagery. Current model guidance shows this area of cooler air merging with a weaker synoptic cold front through tonight, eventually making it to the Mid-South early Thursday morning. Enough moisture may exist ahead of the boundary overnight to produce a few showers or thunderstorms into Thursday around sunrise. However, the bulk of any precipitation is expected to exist in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon hours across eastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN. As of right now, the SPC has these areas outlined in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather, primarily for damaging winds. Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to reach similar levels to today, although over a smaller area. A Heat Advisory has been placed near and west of the MS River Thursday between 11 AM and 8 PM CDT. Some adjustments may be needed to the Heat Advisory depending on the speed at which the front moves through the region.

Medium range guidance suggests that mid-level troughing associated with the frontal passage may persist through Friday and into Saturday before the synoptic ridging begins to build again. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will therefore remain elevated with PoPs as high as 60% Friday and Saturday. However, forecast soundings indicate that a relative lack in surface moisture content may impede the degree to which the region will destabilize both days with only 1000 - 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker CAPE values would lead to weaker updrafts and a less pronounced severe wind threat, especially in the presence of weak bulk shear (< 20 knots). Additionally, the presence of widespread rainfall and the passage of a weak front will cool much of the area into the low 90s and perhaps even

Ensembles are in good agreement that the residual troughing Friday and Saturday will quickly become obsolete as the upper ridge amplifies once again Sunday and into Monday. In turn, high temperatures will climb back into the middle to upper 90s by Sunday which are expected to persist through the end of the period. Lastly, while isolated afternoon convection is not out of the question, the prevailing pattern over the region will be hostile to widespread rainfall with a drier forecast anticipated into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A slow moving cold front will impact the airspace on Thursday and increase the chance for TSRA. While confidence in coverage and timing remains low, probabilities are high enough to include PROB30 TSRA groups at MEM, MKL, and JBR. By sunset, precipitation will dissipate and winds will veer north.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue across the Mid-South today with minimum relative humidity values expected to range between 35 and 40 percent through this evening with light, southerly 20 foot winds. Some areas across northern Mississippi could see relative humidity values drop close to 30 percent. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region Thursday down to around the TN/MS state line, bringing increasing wetting rain chances, higher minimum relative humidity values, and a northerly wind shift. Elevated wetting rain chances will continue through Thursday and Saturday, which will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40 percent.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-002-007-008- 010>013-020-021.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>053-088>090.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ048-049-088.