textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Very cold temperatures with wind chills in the lower to mid-teens are expected this weekend into early next week.

- The next chance of rain will arrive during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level low centered over Lake Superior with an upper-level trough encompassing the central and eastern United States. Late evening surface analysis shows a cold front located just east of the forecast area over East Tennessee and Alabama with an arctic cold front stretching from Southern Lake Michigan to northwest Arkansas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a few returns over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a few METAR observations showing some light precipitation reaching the ground. Some CAMs indicate just enough moisture for a light rain or snow shower or sprinkles or flurries to occur mainly over portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel over the next few hours with no impacts expected.

Confidence is high (>80 %) for much colder air filtering into the Mid-South this weekend with the coldest air arriving Saturday night into Sunday morning as the main upper-level trough rotates through the region. Lows Saturday night will be in the teens to lower 20s with highs struggling to reach the 40 degrees on Sunday. Wind chill values will average mainly in the teens for Sunday. Another reinforcing cold front Sunday night will prolong the cold temperatures into early next week with lows falling back into the teens for Monday night.

Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week as southerly winds return on the back side of high pressure. There is a low to medium chance (30-50%) for rain next Wednesday and Thursday as moisture increases across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR. A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to the WNW this morning to MEM, MKL, JBR, and TUP. There is high confidence that winds will gust behind the front through late afternoon before weakening to 5 knots or less overnight.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent on Saturday and around 30 percent on Sunday. 20-foot winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph across portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this weekend. Cold temperatures are expected to mitigate the overall fire danger threat.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.