textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, capable of heavy downpours will persist daily through the weekend, posing a threat of localized flash flooding.

- A cold front will bring an end to the muggy conditions and lead to pleasant, drier afternoons starting early next week (as early as Tuesday).

- Near-normal temperatures will continue, with highs trending in the mid-80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Deep southerly flow, associated with a trough near the ArkLaTex, is transporting substantial moisture into the Mid-South, with PWATs nearing 2.0 inches (near 99th percentile) along and west of the Mississippi River. Consequently, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the next 12 to 24 hours. Convection, which is already initiated, will become more focused as a weak frontal boundary sags toward I-40. The convection will be highly efficient, with rainfall rates approaching 2 to 4 inches per hour, a scenario well-supported by hi-res guidance and the NBM, potentially resulting in a bullseye of 2 to 4 inches of 24-hour QPF over northeast Arkansas and a low to medium threat of flash flooding continuing through tomorrow morning.

A brief reprieve in convective activity may occur Friday mid- morning before another round of showers and thunderstorms develops across the majority of the Mid-South. This activity will be driven by a weak shortwave lifting north through Saturday. The threat of heavy rainfall remains a primary concern as PWATs continue to hover near the 99th percentile across the entire region.

A shift toward a drier pattern is anticipated early next week as shortwave upper-level ridging builds across the Mid-South. LREF guidance maintains consistency regarding this development. During this period, thunderstorms will be primarily scattered and diurnally driven. There is a medium chance that a backdoor cold front will move through the region by midweek, significantly reducing humidity through late week. This transition would result in a period of dry weather with near-normal temperatures, featuring highs in the mid-80s and lows in the mid-60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

This is a low to medium confidence TAF set as a stationary boundary brings scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South. Given current breaks in the clouds, promoting daytime heating, instability will continue to rise across all terminals. As such, VCTS has been added to all TAF sites through the afternoon hours. Also opted to keep the current PROB30s for -TSRA across all terminals through sunset. Instability wanes around sunset, though thunder may linger through the overnight hours.

As winds go light overnight, amidst narrow dewpoint depressions, patchy fog is expected at JBR/MKL/TUP. MVFR conditions are also expected to begin overspreading the airspace beginning around 08Z and remain through much of the TAF period as a surface low begins to rotate into the Lower Mississippi Valley. East winds will shift more south/southeast over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into early next week, with continued showers and thunderstorms maintaining high fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a dry cold front moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.