textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and humid weather is expected this week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and oppressive heat indices above the 105 degree mark.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee today. Additional heat headlines are expected through most of the week.

- There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of the week into next weekend. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 595 dam ridge is centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with shortwave energy bypassing the region well to the north. Surface analysis shows a broad 1020 mb high pressure system across the eastern CONUS. This high will remain stationary through the week, maintaining a persistent return flow that will gradually transport higher moisture into the Mid-South.

Persistent ridging will drive a steady increase in daily temperatures and humidity. Areas along and west of the Mississippi River have a medium-to-high chance of reaching 100F daily, with heat indices ranging from 103F to 110F across the region. Oppressive heat will initially target western areas before expanding across the entire Mid-South by midweek. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect on Monday and there is high confidence that daily heat headlines will be required through Friday.

Guidance suggests easterly waves may undercut the ridge late this week, potentially triggering isolated thunderstorms; however, meaningful heat relief is unlikely. Predominantly hot and dry conditions will persist, elevating the risk for rapid-onset drought. A medium signal remains for a backdoor cold front late this weekend, which could eventually moderate the heat and humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions across all terminals. High pressure to the east will result in light south winds, generally 6kts or less today and tomorrow. Overnight, wind speeds will diminish to 3kts or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A persistent upper level ridge of high pressure will keep high heat and increasing humidity over the Mid-South this week. Air temperatures will approach upper 90s and 100 degree mark each day, however, minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 35 percent all week long. 20-foot winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph remaining below critical fire weather thresholds. However, 10 and 100 hour fuels will continue to dry and cure. This prolonged and hot and dry period with no appreciable rainfall may trigger elevated fire weather danger this week. The threat of fog each morning will remain low and isolated, confined mainly to nearby localized river basins.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020-048>051-088-089.