textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the Mid-South through much of the work week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into midweek due to warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Warm and dry conditions will continue to impact the Mid-South this week as a 592 dam ridge remains parked over central CONUS. Diurnal temperature ranges will vary widely each day with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 50s. A few shortwaves will pass north of the forecast area by midweek, but no significant weather changes are anticipated due to a lack of moisture in the atmospheric column. These prolonged dry conditions, combined with relative humidity around 30 percent, will elevate fire weather concerns through at least midweek.

By the end of the week, a subtropical jet will move across the southern Plains. This feature may bring increased moisture into our area, allowing rain chances to increase over the weekend. While this means potential rain on Halloween, it would also mark an end to our prolonged dry spell. Ultimately, guidance depicts less than 1 inch of rain falling this upcoming weekend. While not much, any precipitation is welcomed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

High pressure remaining anchored across the region will maintain widespread VFR conditions through the TAF period. Expect clear skies or minimal high cirrus across all terminal sites. Surface winds will remain light out of the east to southeast around 5 kt or less, becoming light and variable to calm overnight. No ceiling or visibility restrictions are anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least midweek. The latest Energy Release Component is forecast to remain above the 90th percentile through Tuesday. This, combined with dry fuels and minimum relative humidity around 30 percent, will promote increased fire starts and growth. The main limiting factor for high fire danger will be 20ft winds, which are forecast to remain below 10 mph. Additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are anticipated through midweek. Otherwise, expect each day to feature dry conditions with isolated patchy fog in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.