textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of northern Mississippi Monday morning for dangerously cold wind chills due to Arctic air.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern continues to warm.

- Above normal temperatures persist well into late December.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

The Arctic airmass is in full swing over the Mid-South this evening. Latest wind chill obs are in the single digits essentially areawide, warranting another Cold Weather Advisory overnight for portions of north Mississippi meeting the < 10F criteria. Another brisk day is on tap for Monday, though slightly warmer with highs in the upper 30s. After that, the pattern warms very quickly as the Arctic high shifts east and gives way to strong southerly return flow. Each subsequent day will get progressively warmer through Thursday as this WAA regime remains in place. PoPs remain low (< 20%) through midweek due to weak ridging aloft and the residual effects of Arctic air drying out the column.

The next active system comes in the form of a longwave trough digging from the northern Plains on Thursday. The surface low's attendant warm front will lift north throughout the day, surging temperatures 10+ degrees above normal and adding a Gulf moisture component. Forecast temperatures in the mid 60s with dewpoints also around 60 degrees will make Thursday feel more like early Fall than mid December. The cold front is still on track to swing through on Thursday afternoon and evening, increasing PoPs to 80- 90%. There has been a trend of increasing instability along with the pre-frontal moisture axis, mostly for the Mississippi Delta region. LREF ensemble mean surface CAPE is now on the order of 100 J/kg during FROPA on Thursday afternoon, which is plenty to get a few rumbles of thunder in a well sheared environment such as this one. Still nothing to raise the severe weather alarm bells at, but confidence in thunderstorms is increasing on Thursday.

After the front passes on Thursday, the upper level pattern flattens out almost completely next weekend. This will give way to mild temperatures and benign weather at the surface. Looking into the extended forecast, long range ensembles suggest some weak ridging to persist over the central CONUS, increasing the likelihood for a late December warmup. The 8-14 day temperature outlook depicts a high chance (80-90%) of temperatures above normal for the Mid-South persisting almost into the New Year.

CAD

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Light and variable winds will become SSW this afternoon, as an Arctic surface high pressure ridge moves east of the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings an 80-90% chance of wetting rains on Thursday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ010>013- 015>017-020>024.

TN...None.