textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Dry conditions and lingering drought maintain elevated fire risks through Thursday.

- Areawide rain chances return late Friday for the Halloween weekend.

- Another chance for rain is expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Upper level ridging has begun to break down due to a shortwave traversing across the Midwest as of 9 PM. Little to no change will be felt across the Mid-South until this weekend. Until Saturday, expect dry conditions with high temperatures generally in the 70s to low 80s. A slow change in humidity will be felt as return flow strengthens and advects moisture into the region. With this, RH values will slowly climb above critical thresholds by Thursday at the latest. Continue to heed all local burn bans as drought conditions encompass the region and continue to cause dry fuels.

This weekends pattern shift is due to an upper level low developing over the Central Plains. This will bring heightened rain chances for Halloween, with the latest guidance trending later with the bulk of the precipitation starting after 7 PM Halloween night. The deterministic GFS remains an outlier with an earlier onset. LREF soundings do not show the column being saturated until later in the afternoon and evening, so this is supportive of the latest trends. Due to the dry air and timing of the system, there is a 30-40% chance of accumulation exceeding one inch along the Tennessee River Valley with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Once this feature swings through, a brief lull will return to start the work week. Early next week, most guidance wants to bring another system towards the Mid-South, but disagreements on evolution and timing keep details limited. The GFS seems to be the outlier once again at this point, with a very tight pressure gradient; albeit the LREF has severe weather ingredients (>500 J/kg of CAPE and >30kts of shear) less than 25%. Nonetheless, this is still in the long range and we will monitor the evolution of this system.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Light SE winds and VFR will continue through the period, courtesy of dry midcontinental high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will be alleviated as we move into the latter half of the work week. This is due to slightly higher dewpoints settling over the Mid-South. One final Rangeland Fire Danger Statement may be needed for Thursday, but thereafter we anticipate an end to fire weather products. Wetting rain chances return Saturday and persist through the upcoming Halloween weekend. Until then, expect each morning to feature patchy fog in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.