textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Cooler and less humid air will continue to filter into the region into Wednesday, bringing comfortable temperatures in the 80s through the rest of the week.

- Mainly dry conditions will prevail for most of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends showed a mid-level shortwave trough moving through portions of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee late this morning. As a result, regional WSR-88D radar trends indicated elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Late morning temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40, and middle 70s to middle 80s south.

Abundant cloud cover and northeast winds along and north of this line will result in lower afternoon temperatures than depicted by the NBM guidance. Thus, temperatures were subsequently lowered to account for these trends. Short term CAMs suggest this activity will gradually weaken and dissipate into this afternoon as the shortwave trough pushes away from the region. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area as high pressure settles in from Ontario and Quebec. This will result in more comfortable near normal temperatures across the Mid-South with highs in the lower to middle 80s north of I-40, and middle 80s to around 90 degrees south, with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

Long term ensemble model solutions show the Mid-South remaining within northwest flow aloft through the end of the period with an upper-level trough located along the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the Southern Plains into western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Confidence remains medium to high for temperatures rising back above normal for the upcoming weekend into early next week but without the anomalously high temperatures we have experienced lately. Beyond early next week, ensemble solutions dampen out the ridge with temperatures becoming more seasonable near normal highs for late September.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A cold front is stalled just southeast of the MEM terminal. Post frontal stratus resides behind the boundary with decks generally around 2000 feet. These decks should continue to scatter out through the day and VFR conditions should prevail through the cycle. Northerly winds will remain elevated overnight limiting any fog potential under clear skies.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mainly dry conditions with no measurable precipitation is expected for the next seven days. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% through Friday, with dry soils persisting through the ongoing drought.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.