textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend.

- A dry cold front late Sunday will edge temperatures closer for the start of work week before a secondary warming trend occurs midweek.

- Dry weather will continue through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A warm and benign day is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, gusty southwest winds at the surface, and clear skies. As we sit in weak northwest flow aloft and on the backside of a strong surface high pressure, currently centered over the eastern Gulf, persistent return flow will greatly drive our weather pattern through tomorrow. An anomalous 591mb upper-level ridge over the southwestern CONUS has aided in abnormally warm conditions across the region, giving us a taste of early Summer in early Spring. Well above normal, (15-20 degrees) potentially record breaking, temperatures will remain through tomorrow. Our four climate sites are forecast to either break or tie their high temperature records today and even more likely tomorrow.

Tomorrow evening, a cold front will push across the Mid-South. However precipitation is not anticipated out ahead, as in the upper-levels, quasi-zonal flow will result in a very dry air column with little to no moisture availability to advect in. Forecast soundings are promoting ample convective inhibition (CIN) due to such a dry column resulting in a lack of lift for any precipitation to make it to the surface. A tight pressure gradient ahead of this front will result in gusty winds again tomorrow, highest gusts (up to 35 mph) and sustained winds (up to 20 mph) in NE AR and the MO Bootheel. Come Monday temperatures will take a dive (10-20 degrees) behind the aforementioned front, edging us closer to normal. However, this relief will not last long as another warming trend begins Tuesday and back into the 80s by Wednesday, aided by a surface warm front and continued quasi-zonal flow aloft. Thursday will have another chance to potentially break temperature records as elevated southwest winds advect even warmer air in. Ensemble members depict a secondary cold front pushing across the Mid-South late Thursday and into Friday. Though, rain chances (<20%) look very meager as the synoptic pattern remains largely quasi-zonal.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR. Gusty SW winds will diminish this evening and pick back up again Sunday morning with gusts around 25 kts throughout the day due to a tight pressure gradient. Added LLWS Sunday evening at MEM ahead of the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain around 30-40% through at least early next week as no appreciable rainfall is expected. Elevated 20 ft winds (10-20 mph) will continue through Sunday ahead of a dry cold front. We could see some limited fire weather concerns both this and tomorrow afternoon. Above normal temperatures will remain for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.