textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Heat indices will range between 105 and 109 this afternoon. Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the overnight hours.

- Triple digit heat indices will persist into this weekend, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief from the oppressive heat.

- The heat will return and intensify next workweek, with dangerous heat indices in excess of 110 expected over much of the Mid-south by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Another hot and humid day is apparent at this hour with current temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. Oppressive heat with heat indices in excess of 105F will continue through the early evening hours today. As a result a Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the Mid-South until 9PM today. Please be sure to practice heat safety by limiting outdoor activity and staying hydrated. As far as heat headlines go heading into the weekend, scattered showers and thunderstorms in combination with increased cloud cover will provide brief localized relief from oppressive heat. Though areas west of the Mississippi River will see heat indices in excess of 105F tomorrow. As such a Heat Advisory has been issued for counties west of the Mississippi River.

A stationary front is currently extending from southern Missouri on through the lower Ohio River valley, bordering the Tennessee and Kentucky stateline. In conjunction, a weak shortwave is stationed over the Missouri Bootheel. As we head further into the afternoon hours, this shortwave will amplify slightly into the Mid-South and give lift to shower and mostly single cellular thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be working with a decent instability field with forecast soundings hinting at upwards of 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and PWATs up to 2.3", nearing the 99th percentile for this time of year. Some limiting factors this afternoon will be effective shear less than 20 kts and mid-level lapse rates at around 5.5 C/km. Much compared to yesterday, we are looking at a microburst environment that could cause nuisance flooding and a few sub-severe to severe wind gusts mainly along and north of I-40. Severe chances will taper off by the late evening as precipitation chances dwindle. Shower and thunderstorm chances also exist over areas south of I-40 as Gulf moisture is present this afternoon, though, severe weather is not expected in these areas.

As we edge into the weekend, wet and unsettled conditions will continue as Gulf air and the aforementioned front dominate the weather pattern. Be sure to keep those umbrellas handy this weekend, especially in areas east of the Mississippi River where Gulf moisture will be more apparent. Nuisance flooding due to previously saturated soils will really be the only concern this weekend, though shower and thunderstorm chances are nothing to write home as rainfall amounts will be generally less than an inch.

By the start of next workweek, a 594dam ridge will build over the region and bring oppressive heat back into the forecast. Heat Headlines will likely be needed across much if not all of the Mid- South beginning Monday as heat indices soar back into the triple digits. As we move through the week, the aforementioned ridge will continue to build and amplify across the region, raising temperatures even further with some areas even reaching into the triple digits by Wednesday. Something to note, as the ridge builds, dry air will also begin to build across much of the area, decreasing dewpoints slightly. Though, with dewpoints still in the mid 70s and temperatures in the upper 90s, the heat will be oppressive. Sadly, hot and humid conditions will be here to stay as the latest CPC 8-10 temperature outlook has us above normal to round out the month of July.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Mainly a persistence forecast again. Scattered showers that will eventually turn into thunderstorms have already started firing across the airspace, warranting PROB30s for all sites until this evening. Guidance has been backing off on MVFR ceilings early Saturday morning for MEM (now looking more east of the Mississippi River), but confidence wasn't high enough yet to scatter out the MVFR deck in this TAF set. Will be something to watch for future cycles. South/southwest winds 5-10 kts.

CAD

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable future as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50%. Hot and humid conditions will also continue through the next seven days or so. Wetting rain chances will continue through much of the weekend as Gulf moisture remains in place.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020- 048>051-088-089.