textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast mainly across north Mississippi this evening.

- A warm front will lift north through the area on Saturday, spreading chances for showers and thunderstorms northward across most of Mid-South.

- A couple of upper-level disturbances and an approaching cold front will result in higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A dry, albeit a bit humid, day is progressing across the Mid- South this Friday. A weak frontal boundary has stalled just south of the area, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity to our south. While an isolated storm could creep into our far southern counties along the boundary by the afternoon, confidence is overall low and most of the Mid-South will likely remain dry through the remainder of the day. Overnight, dew point depressions will be fairly low across north Mississippi with generally light winds. While cloud coverage could inhibit any dense fog, I would not be surprised if some localized, patchy fog were to develop near bodies of water near sunrise. By Saturday, a warm front will slowly begin to lift back through the Mid-South, with increased shower and thunderstorm chances by the afternoon. Coverage will likely remain fairly isolated north of the TN/MS stateline, with better, scattered chances across north Mississippi mainly in the afternoon. Coverage will quickly begin to wane following sunset. As far as temperatures go, high temperatures will remain generally in the mid 80s both today (Friday) and on Saturday.

By Sunday, the entire Mid-South will be fully in the warm sector with the aforementioned warm front moving north of the area. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop through the daytime, although the better coverage would likely be diurnally driven in the afternoon. By the evening to overnight hours, a decaying MCS will be moving out of Missouri bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. There is still significant uncertainty with this system, with the majority of CAMs just now coming into range. Joint probabilities of conducive severe weather ingredients are in the 30 to 40% range generally along and north of the I-40 corridor by Sunday evening, thus conditions could be favorable for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. As such, far northwest portions of the Mid-South are included in a Slight Risk (2/5) area with those along and north of I-40 elsewhere in a Marginal Risk (1/5). More clarity should be coming as additional CAMs come into range. Beyond Sunday into early next week, the Mid-South will remain in a quasi- zonal to subtle northwesterly flow aloft, keeping us in a favorable environment for at least daily scattered thunderstorm chances. High temperatures through this period will generally remain at to just below normal, with highs spanning the 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A stalled front remains well to our south over central Mississippi. No rain/convection is expected tonight at MKL, JBR or MEM. Ongoing storms will continue to weaken as they approach TUP this evening. Will include PROB30 for TS from 01-04Z. The front is expected to return quickly northward tomorrow increasing the risk for storms at MEM by midday and TUP around mid-morning. Will delay the PROB30 for showers at MEM a bit, and introduce PROB30 for thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. Winds will remain light, below 7kts, east to northeast tonight, shifting from the south tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain over 40% with a typical, humid summertime pattern. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast through at least the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.