textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Near-record high temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lasting through Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The latest surface analysis places a 1006mb low over Quebec with a cold front extending southwest through central Ohio and back through St. Louis, Missouri. Behind the front an expansive 1028mb high was analyzed over the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Along and south of the front, dense fog has developed over much of western Kentucky. Additionally, the latest GOES East Nighttime Microphysics RGB reveals low stratus spreading ESE into the majority of west TN, the MO Bootheel, and northeast AR.

The front will sag south overnight and is anticipated to make it down close to the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If this happens, dense fog is expected to impact northern portions of west Tennessee. We went ahead and added areas of fog to the forecast through the overnight period. The rest of the Mid-South will see patchy fog overnight through tomorrow morning. The front will lift back north tomorrow morning with clouds breaking up by early afternoon and unseasonably warm temperatures continuing.

NBM temperature guidance continues to run 2 to 4 degrees below observed high temperatures over the past two days. In fact, record high temperatures were set at both Memphis and Jonesboro on Tuesday. We opted for a 50/50 blend of NBM75 and NBM for high temperatures for both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which would tie or set records each day at at least one of our four climate sites. A persistence forecast is preferred through Saturday as upper level heights and 925mb temperatures remain nearly steady.

A significant pattern change will occur on Sunday as a strong Arctic front moves through the Mid-South. Widespread rainfall will occur along and behind the front with QPF totals approaching half an inch. Additionally, a sharp 40 degree temperature change will occur by Monday morning as lows fall into the 20s areawide. Brisk conditions are expected early next week as highs struggle to break 40 degrees and wind chills fall into the teens.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A VFR and intermittent MVFR stratus deck will prevail overnight as a front sags south. Fog with reduced visibilities will continue to spread across terminals as we edge closer to sunrise, aided by the aforementioned front. MVFR conditions are expected to fill in around sunrise and linger through early afternoon as winds increase to around 10 kts and cigs lift to VFR. Southwest winds will gust up to 20 kts in the afternoon before becoming light around 00Z. There is a decent signal for another low stratus deck and widespread fog building overnight Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 60% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive on Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic air.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.