textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Summer heat will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the lower to middle 90s for the next seven days.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Mississippi River Delta today. Expanded heat headlines will likely be needed into the weekend.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return to northern portions of the Mid-South today and the remainder of the region Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

No significant changes in the forecast. Temperatures will trend a degree or two warmer through the weekend with a slight uptick in the chance of rain and thunderstorms today and Saturday.

A weak northern latitude trough is in place across the central and northern Mississippi River Valley with a thermal ridge positioned to our east across most of the Southeastern US. A strong ridge is centered west of the Continental Divide, extending into the Four-Corners Area. The Mid-South is positioned between these three features, but is mainly dominated by the ridges to our west and east. As a result, temperatures will remain hot and likely trend slightly hotter today and Saturday. Nevertheless, the presence of the northern latitude trough, along with increasing surface moisture, will increase our chance of rain today and tomorrow. Storms will be diurnally driven and most likely along and north of the Interstate 40 Corridor. A Heat Advisory is in effect in the MS River Delta this afternoon, and further heat products will likely be warranted over the weekend and possibly into early next week. Any showers and thunderstorms may limit the heat impact briefly and locally today and tomorrow, but most of the Mid-South should expect to remain hot and dry.

Sunday into early next week, the trough to our north will deamplify and shift east, limiting any forcing over the region as the ridge out west expands east. Temperatures will maintain or trend slightly warmer, but the chance of rain will decrease. For now, our warmest day looks to be Tuesday, when afternoon highs are expected to be in the mid-90s. Heat indices near or slightly higher than 105 degrees are likely area-wide. The need for Heat Advisories will continue. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the ridge will retrograde Wednesday and after midweek, so temperatures should trend cooler, but confidence in that solution is low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Generally a persistent VFR aviation forecast, with daytime cumulus and high density altitudes.

Relative to the past several days, low TS chances appear toward late afternoon, edging up near 30 percent at JBR. While TSRA cannot be ruled out at MEM and MKL, chances are considerably lower and are below the PROB30 threshold.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A weak, broad trough will remain in place across the Mid-South, slowly shifting east. . Southerly winds will raise Min RHs back above the 50th percentile this afternoon. Additionally, as the trough shifts east, PoPs return over the weekend as a weak surface boundary moves in from the north.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010.

TN...None.