textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South through Tuesday with heat indices reaching as high as 114 degrees.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek, providing some relief from the extreme heat.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now cancelled. Storms continue to weaken as they move south towards the Tennessee / Alabama border. A few storms cannot be ruled out over the next hour or two, but severe weather is not anticipated.

In addition, the Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded areawide through 8PM Tuesday. Oppressive heat will be in place with dewpoints nearing 80 degrees Monday afternoon. Heat indices up to 114 degrees are forecast. Please use caution if working outdoors. Heat remains the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States each year. Learn the signs of heat illness and ensure you hydrate frequently.

ANS

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

8PM radar imagery depicts a complex of storms diving south out of Kentucky into Middle Tennessee. The 00Z sounding out of Nashville depicts surface cape greater than 4500 J/kg along with bulk shear nearing 30 kts. While shear is on the weaker side, the abundance of instability will be enough for storms to overcome the weaker kinematics. One thing to note on the sounding is a weak EML at around 750 mb. The CAMs are modeling this well, depicting increasing CIN over the next several hours. Given this, storms will struggle to maintain strength for long and likely diminish by midnight. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary concerns at this time.

Hot and humid conditions resume on Monday as the eastern flank of a 598 dam ridge remains over the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 90s areawide with heat indices in excess of 110 degrees. This pattern will persist into Tuesday as temperatures approach 100 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are in effect through 8PM Tuesday. Luckily, a backdoor cold front will swing through the Mid-South on Wednesday and decrease dewpoints into the 60s. This will produce heat indices beneath headline criteria by Thursday. Until then, make sure you monitor yourself for signs of heat-related illness if working outdoors. Take frequent breaks and remember to drink plenty of water.

By Friday, a shortwave trough will move through the central Plains. This feature will increase rain chances in the Mid-South through the weekend. It remains too early to tell specifics, but for now expect the upcoming weekend to be wet and unsettled.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

TSRA impacts should remain east of the terminals this cycle. Wind shifts are possible near any lingering outflow boundaries; otherwise, expect a prevailing W/SW flow. Guidance does suggest light winds and clearing skies after 06z, which could enhance fog development. Will continue to monitor convective and fog trends.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.