textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Wednesday.

- Areawide rain chances return late Friday and will continue through the Halloween weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Synoptic level weather patterns will begin to change today as a shortwave moves northwest of the forecast area. This feature will be strong enough to push the ridge, currently centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, eastward. At the surface, weather conditions will not change much through the end of the week minus a slight increase in dewpoint temperatures. Daily highs will be in the mid 70s and lower 80s with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Fire weather concerns will slowly be alleviated thanks to the increase in moisture. However, the prolonged dry spell in combination with dry fuels will keep burn bans in place. Adhere to local burning guidelines and dispose of cigarettes properly.

By Saturday, an upper level low will form over Texas. This feature will advect increased moisture into the Mid-South, allowing rain chances to return by Saturday morning. The latest guidance paints a rainy Halloween with showers lasting through Sunday evening. The probability of rainfall totals exceeding one inch Saturday and Sunday has increased to 40 percent over northeast Mississippi. Additional rain chances will manifest early next week as a bowling ball trough develops over central CONUS. It remains too early to tell specifics, but we will be watching the evolution of this feature as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with southeasterly winds up to around 5 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will be alleviated as we move into the latter half of the work week. This is due to slightly higher dewpoints settling over the Mid-South. One final Rangeland Fire Danger Statement may be needed for Wednesday, but thereafter we anticipate an end to fire weather products. Wetting rain chances return Saturday and persist through the upcoming Halloween weekend. Until then, expect each morning to feature patchy fog in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.