textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected again on Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week.

- The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens each day early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

12Z upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge axis encompassing the Southern United States. Late morning surface analysis places a stationary boundary along the I-70 corridor in Missouri. Visible satellite trends and regional METAR observations show low stratus and some fog encompassing much of the Mid-South with 10 AM temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

The aforementioned low stratus over the Mid-South will gradually dissipate into this afternoon. Due to the persistent cloud cover, high temperatures have been trended lower towards the operational NBM. This cloud cover will make achieving near-record highs difficult this afternoon and again on Friday as additional low stratus may redevelop late tonight into Friday morning. This upper-level ridge will persist into the start of the upcoming weekend with moderate to high confidence (50-80% chance) of near record to record high temperatures occurring mainly on Saturday.

Mid to long range models indicate a pattern change coming as the upper- level ridge moves east and a longwave trough moves through the Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. An associated arctic cold front will bring a return of very cold air to the Mid-South for early next week with highs struggling to get out of the 30s on Tuesday. Rain showers are expected to accompany the front with confidence remaining low (less than 20% chance) of elevated thunderstorms with poor instability expected. Cold temperatures and elevated winds will result in wind chill values averaging in the teens and 20s by late Monday. Fortunately, this very cold airmass will be short-lived with temperatures for mid to late next week returning back towards normal with highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees with lows in the 30s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Persistent MVFR/IFR stratus deck expected to continue for a few more hours. Gradual and brief improvement to VFR expected later this afternoon. Minimal change synoptically will favor another cloud deck tonight into tomorrow morning. Confidence is high (70%) for MVFR/IFR ceilings returning again after 03z.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Fire danger will remain very low into the upcoming weekend as humidity will remain at or above 60 percent. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected through Saturday. A medium to high chance (50-80% chance) of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by arctic air for early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.