textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- There are elevated wildfire danger concerns through this afternoon, especially for areas along and west of Interstate 55.

- Periods of gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph through this evening and 25 mph on Saturday.

- Dry weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Hello Fall, is that finally you? After what has seemed like a never-ending summer across the Mid-South, we finally have some true fall-like conditions today behind a cold front. Temperatures currently span the 60s for much of the area, with a few locations still in the 50s. While the main, surface cold front has cleared our area, we are beginning to see a few post-frontal showers develop west of I-55. Conditions are generally dry enough at the surface that much of this activity likely will not reach the surface, but some light rain cannot necessarily be ruled out as it moves from northwest to southeast across the area. Outside of this, gusty winds will continue with a fairly steep pressure gradient associated with the upper-level trough passing through. Much of the area is reporting 10 to 20 mph sustained winds with occasional wind gusts upwards of 30 mph. This pressure gradient will linger into Saturday as the parent low pressure system moves off to the east, so expect some occasional 20 to 25 mph wind gusts to continue. High temperatures on Saturday will remain well below normal, with highs spanning the 60s.

By Sunday and into next week, a weak upper-level ridge will begin to develop over the region with dry conditions persisting for the foreseeable future. LREF guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this dry pattern, with a general warming pattern through the week. Sunday morning will start off with some of the coolest temperatures we have seen so far this season, with many in the upper 30s to low 40s. For locations generally north of I- 40, temperatures may come close to Frost Advisory criteria. Latest NBM guidance does have about a 40 to 50% chance of locations falling below 37 degrees, so this will be something to watch with upcoming forecast packages. Despite the chilly start, temperatures will warm back into the 60s to near 70 by Sunday afternoon. Into the rest of next week, high temperatures will gradually rise a few degrees each day, likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into early evening at TAF sites. There is high confidence in the development of MVFR ceilings overnight, supported by the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. Conditions will then improve to VFR conditions later Saturday morning. N winds are expected to remain elevated through much of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Fire danger concerns will exist across portions of the Mid-South through this afternoon, with relatively dry fuels and gusty winds. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN through 7 PM this evening. Minimum relative humidity values will once again be in the 30% to 40% range on Saturday, with continued wind gusts in the afternoon. By Sunday and into next week, while minimum relative humidity values will remain below 40%, wind speeds will generally remain light. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.