textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday. Stronger storms will pose a localized flash flooding threat.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) exists on Monday for two rounds of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through the workweek.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Ridging has started to relax across the Middle Mississippi River Valley today, with evidence being the larger-than-expected coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. These storms have since collapsed as post-sunset cooling continues with the region remaining dry through at least 10z A fog threat may materialize through the night with the 12z HREF showing a 40% - 50% chance of dense fog across portions of West Tennessee, particularly around the Tennessee River. However, evening thunderstorms have likely introduced enough of a perturbation away from that solution to decrease confidence in widespread fog, but areas of dense fog are still possible.

The upper pattern will continue to see heights relax into tomorrow morning. This trend will allow for storms to develop across Missouri overnight with CAMs consistently bringing a line of storms from the north near sunrise Monday morning. Although CAMs did struggle with convection Sunday evening, they did capture enough of the cold pool's effects on the instability to still be worth using to synthesize the forecast. The past few HRRR runs have let the atmosphere recover, bringing upwards of 2000 - 2500 J/kg MUCAPE throughout the region by 09z and is backed up by both the REFS/HREF displaying ~2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Therefore, a morning round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to occur Monday. Forecast soundings from this model suite show deep layer shear out of the northwest, a bit too orthogonal to the motion of the storms to keep them well organized. Additionally, the REFS/HREF plumes show relatively low 925 mb - 850 mb RH along with poor lapse rates between 850 - 500 mb, which may also act to add in some MUCIN, further inhibiting the severe threat. Regardless, the distinct signal from the HRRR in regards to a bowing line moving through the region this morning has been enough for SPC to introduce a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk for damaging winds and hail for Monday.

Through the day, the line and associated outflow will continue to push south and will likely reintensify after sunrise as surface heating occurs. Forecast confidence begins to degrade rapidly from this point Monday regarding convective evolution as convective feedbacks begin to take hold on the environment. Regardless, the past several HRRR, in conjunction with REFS/HREF, continue to hint at redevelopment along the trailing outflow boundary across northeastern Arkansas into the afternoon. The westward progression of the outflow does not appear to be strong enough to initiate storms across the region as the rest of the complex moves south. Therefore, strong insolation and a very humid air mass will accumulate large (3500+ J/kg) MLCAPE into the mid afternoon. If this recovery is able to occur into our region, a second round of strong to severe convection would be expected. While all of the above is occurring, a trough axis will be amplifying and swinging south, overspreading the region in broad, 30 - 40 knot 500 mb flow and subtle height falls. Storms that develop would therefore have enough bulk shear available (25 - 30 knots) for storm organization into multi-cells and transient supercells capable of damaging winds and severe hail through the evening hours. Storms should gradually decrease in coverage after sunset. Lastly, portions of the Mississippi River Delta may reach heat indices of upwards of 105 F Monday afternoon, but the presence of one or more convective complexes has prevented the issuance of a Heat Advisory given low confidence in afternoon temperatures.

The upper trough will continue to dig into the southeast CONUS into the middle of this week with a surface high developing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This surface high will push drier, cooler air southwestward into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South by Tuesday. Highs will drop into the upper 70s and low 80s with noticeably less humid air as dewpoints fall towards 60 F. This air mass will persist through Wednesday with highs beginning to creep upward again by the end of the week as the surface high shifts east and southerlies return. The forecast will, however, remain mostly dry through Friday as a ridge also builds in aloft. GEFS ensembles indicate that CAPE will tend to increase through next weekend, indicating a return to afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

00Z HRRR remains consistent dropping consecutive southward-moving TSRA complexes through the Midsouth during the mid-morning, and again in the late afternoon and early evening. The latter complex should be out of the MEM TRACON by the onset of the late Monday evening inbound push.

In the interim, patchy IFR VIS appears most likely at MKL overnight, with lesser chances at TUP and JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early this week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South through Monday night and into early Tuesday morning, with sporadic showers and thunderstorms maintaining high humidity and fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of this week as a cold front moves through the region. Minimum relative humidity values will begin to fall below 50% starting Tuesday afternoon, but sodden vegetation is expected to keep fire danger low.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.