textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for severe weather continues through Saturday with damaging winds and flooding remaining the main concerns.

- A Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect on Saturday, with primary threats of damaging winds and flash flooding.

- High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A decaying MCS continues its ESE track across the Mid-South this afternoon. Current WSR-88D imagery shows showers over West Tennessee, with a congealing, cold-pool dominant line near the TN/MS border producing 40-50 mph winds. This complex may reach severe thresholds as it interacts with an instability gradient over north Mississippi. Convection should clear the Tennessee River within a few hours, followed by benign conditions through the evening.

An additional convective complex is expected to develop over southeast Missouri tonight. While the 12Z HREF suggests an eastward track through southern Missouri and Kentucky, any southward deviation into northwest Tennessee would exacerbate flooding. The Obion River is currently at minor flood stage; additional rainfall may trigger a rise to moderate stage. Any overnight activity is expected to exit the region by Saturday morning.

Severe potential, heavy rainfall, and heat risks persist for Saturday. Environmental parameters remain conducive with PWATs > 2 inches, afternoon instability of 2000-3000 J/kg, and 20- 25 knots of shear. HREF/REFS guidance indicates storm initiation as early as 1 PM as an MCV approaches from the northwest, with activity clearing north Mississippi around midnight. Damaging winds and flash flooding-particularly in northwest Tennessee- remain the primary threats. A Slight Risk (Level 2/5) encompasses most of the area. Heat indices in the afternoon will climb into the triple digits areawide as high temperatures soar into the lower 90s.

A shortwave trough will bring another round of thunderstorms on Sunday. Despite uncertainty regarding morning recovery from residual convection, a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) remains in effect. Consecutive rounds of rainfall may necessitate an extension of the current Flood Watch.

The early-week outlook remains uncertain. The ECMWF suggests an upper-level low lingering south of a broad Plains ridge. This pattern would maintain cloud cover, scattered convection, and slightly below-normal temperatures across the Mid-South.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Latest short range guidance suggests TSRA will remain north of the Midsouth TAF sites this evening. MKL retains a 10 percent chance of TSRA on station, but this is below mentionable criteria for the TAF.

The primary concern remains TSRA timing on Saturday. Short range guidance continues to vary on timing, but there is sufficient overlap between 18Z REFS ensemble and HRRR deterministic guidance to suggest highest TSRA probabilities mid to late Saturday afternoon for JBR, MEM and MKL. These storms will present a higher than normal threat for strong surface wind gusts upon initial passage. TSRA will likely arrive at TUP after 00Z Sunday (7 PM CDT Saturday).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal across the Mid-South through the upcoming weekend. A moisture-rich airmass will keep minimum relative humidity levels comfortably above 40 percent, while generally light surface winds will further limit any potential spread risk. Daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms will also contribute to maintaining favorable fuel moisture levels. Given the lack of dry, windy conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049- 058.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022- 054-055.