textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, capable of damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, are expected both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

- This upcoming weekend and next week will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the mid to upper 90s by as early as Sunday.

- Heat indices are expected to climb into the triple digits starting Saturday that will last through all of next week. Heat products will likely be warranted each day.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms, while isolated, have developed along the western and southern peripheries of the region this evening. This convection is likely a response to weak upper shortwave perturbations due to decaying convection from the plains over the last 24 hours. As such, additional isolated convective development could persist through early Friday morning in the presence of 1000 - 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Showers may continue Friday morning after sunrise as short-range guidance fails to remove much of the CAPE that exists overnight. Aloft, weak zonal westerlies will continue to prevail where several shortwave perturbations are likely to remain. By mid afternoon, instability will rise back to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE with additional storm development occurring across the northern third of the region along where the perturbations will be the strongest. However, deep layer shear will be weak and mid-level lapse rates will be poor, leading to damaging winds being the primary severe threat, which is covered by a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk from SPC. On the other hand, PWATs will be around 2.00" where storm coverage is forecast to be the greatest, leading to an isolated flash flooding threat.

The upper pattern will transition from a zonal pattern across the region to an amplified ridge quickly through this weekend. Enough troughing will remain through Saturday for additional shower and thunderstorm chances to warrant another Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe storms across portions of West Tennessee, mainly for damaging winds. But the main story from this point will be the oppressive heat that will build in next week as the ridge reaches at or above 594 dm. On Saturday, heat indices are forecast to be as high as 100 F area-wide. This heat only gets worse Monday and into the middle of next week with peak daily heat indices above 105 F at least. If this forecast holds, heat headlines may be necessary through next week. Given that dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s each day, enough instability may be present for diurnal convection that could limit the extent to which afternoon heat indices would reach. These are details that are expected to be resolved as the weekend progresses. Looking beyond the middle of the week, ensembles are in good agreement that the ridge will be here to stay, keeping this heat through the rest of the forecast and likely into the next upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. South winds around 8 kts tonight will shift to the south-southwest tomorrow, increasing to 12 kts with occasional gusts near 20 kts. While most guidance keeps convection to the north, a few showers and thunderstorms may impact JBR around midday; a three-hour PROB30 group has been included to account for this potential.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the end of the week due to recent wetting rains and saturated soils. Daily rounds of pop-up showers and minimum relative humidity values staying above 40% will further limit any risks. However, hot and dry conditions are forecast to return to the Mid-South over the weekend and persist into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.