textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Recent rainfall coupled with clear skies and calm winds will result in fog development over the next few mornings. Areas of dense fog will occur Thursday morning, across the majority of the Mid-South.

- Dry conditions will persist on Thursday with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- A reinforcing dry cold front will arrive Friday with much cooler air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 50s to 60s with lows in the 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 928 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A relatively calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid- South with temperatures currently in the upper 40s to 50s. Areas of dense fog have already begun to develop to our east behind the frontal boundary that pushed through earlier in the day, with some patchy fog already developing across north MS. Conditions do appear favorable for dense fog over our area overnight, with saturated grounds, calm winds, and clear skies. The biggest question for our area will be how widespread the dense fog will become. REFS guidance has a 40% to 60% chance of widespread dense fog development, where some other hi-res guidance keeps this area mainly confined to north MS. As such, going to error on the side of caution for now with a Dense Fog Advisory only encompassing north MS. However, if trends do change, then an expansion across the entire area may be warranted. Any dense fog that does develop will begin to mix out following sunrise. Dry conditions are expected on Thursday, with high temperatures remaining above- normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will sweep through the region overnight Thursday into early Friday, allowing for temperatures to fall back even further heading into the upcoming weekend. While high temperatures will remain close to normal on Friday in the 60s to low 70s across our far southeast, high temperatures will dip below normal by Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Sunday. With the cooler temperatures, overnight lows will likely fall into the 30s across the entire Mid-South both Saturday and Sunday. While not expected to be widespread, there is a 20% to 30% chance Saturday morning and a 30% to 50% chance Sunday morning for some locations to see their first freeze of the season. The best probabilities are generally across northeast AR, the Missouri Bootheel, and West TN. By Monday and into next week, a gradual warm up is expected with high temperatures returning to near-normal in the low to mid 60s. Guidance continues to favor a dry forecast through next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Light winds, high relative humidity and clear skies support temporary fog across all terminals this morning. Due to the patchy nature of dense fog, there is low confidence in dense fog on station. Fog will lift around 15Z, with a return to VFR conditions at all terminals. A tightening pressure gradient will support enough mixing tonight to preclude fog formation.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Areas of dense fog are expected this morning through 9AM due to calm winds and relative humidity near or at 100 percent. No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future with recent rainfall aiding in keeping fuel moisture content in the 13% to 17% range. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% through at least the upcoming weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.