textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee through Sunday at 8 PM CDT.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through much of next week, though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

After an afternoon of strong thunderstorms, NQA's scope now seems peaceful in comparison to just 6 hours ago with only a handful of shallow thunderstorms across West Tennessee. A weakening trend in regards to convection will continue through tonight as an overnight capping inversion strengthens. Some additional storms could advect their way into northern West Tennessee, but the passage of outflow from storms north of the region this afternoon will limit the overall threat for severe winds and flooding. Given the coverage and amount of rain, some fog could develop near sunrise, but clouds and leftover winds from outflow will keep any fog potential limited as well.

After sunrise Sunday, a humid air mass will remain in place across the Mid-South with temperatures once again soaring into the 90s by early afternoon. Once again, heat indices will top out above 100 F across much of the region. However, the upper ridge will have begun to erode in lieu of weak troughing building in with today's convection. Highs will therefore be unable to rise enough to bring some portions of the region above 105 F, particularly across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeastern Mississippi. Elsewhere, guidance still has enough confidence to warrant the extension of the Heat Advisory through 8 PM CDT Sunday. There is some potential for outflow to modify portions of the Heat Advisory and bring maximum heat index values below 105 F, but confidence in this solution is too low to make any changes to the current Heat Advisory.

With the heat and humidity, instability will return to the region with 2000 - 2500 J/kg MLCAPE through Sunday afternoon. Remnant outflow boundaries are likely to remain across the region through the morning and afternoon and will act as triggers for afternoon thunderstorm development. RAP/HRRR guidance suggests that low and mid level lapse rates will be slightly lower than today, leading to lower DCAPE (750 - 1000 J/kg). Regardless, afternoon convection will be capable of damaging wind gusts from microbursts and very heavy downpours in the presence of 2.00" PWATs. Convection will lessen in intensity and coverage near sunset.

The upper ridge responsible for our heat wave will become almost nonexistent by Monday. As such, highs begin to cool into the low 90s, but heat indices will still reach into the triple digits. Some portions of the Mississippi River Delta may still see maximum heat index values above 105 F, but guidance has trended cooler in conjunction with the threat of more afternoon showers and storms. Therefore, have opted to not extend the Heat Advisory into Monday within this package. That being said, heat indices will continue to be oppressive in the triple digits through much of next week.

Ensembles paint a pattern shift by the end of next week with an amplifying ridge across the western CONUS with troughing over the Mississippi River Valley and areas east. This troughing will bring precipitation chances back to the region after a relative lull from Tuesday through Thursday. However, there is still enough spread amongst guidance regarding the evolution of this troughing to limit confidence in exact hazards. There is still general agreement that the troughing will begin to move east, increasing upper heights into next weekend with heat index values beginning to rise above 100 F by Friday and continuing to rise through the weekend to end the forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Mainly rain-free conditions are expected overnight with a potential for patchy fog to develop at MKL and TUP towards sunrise. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday, especially during peak heating warranting PROB30 groups at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally light. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012- 020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>003-019-020- 048>051-088-089.