textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the region through much of the next week.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue as vegetation remains dry amidst afternoon low relative humidity.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Another rinse and repeat night is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures spanning the 50s and lower 60s under clear skies with light winds at the surface. We'll wake up to another chilly morning with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and plenty of sunshine. Outside of some high cirrus Saturday will be much the same as Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as upper-level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. As a very dry airmass remains parked over the Mississippi Valley, dewpoints will fall into the 40s leading to continued fire weather concerns into the weekend. We ask you to please continue to adhere to local burn bans, properly dispose of cigarettes and matches, and avoid using equipment that creates sparks.

Moving through the weekend and into early next week, little to no change is of note as aforementioned upper-level ridging continues to build over the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal with a slight cooldown early next week as highs begin to span the upper 70s. Cool mornings remain the trend with lows dropping into the 40s and lower 50s each day. Ensembles are in decent agreement with upper- level ridging finally beginning to break down come mid-week as dual upper-level low pressure systems (one from the northern Rockies and another from the Pacific Northwest) begin to push into the upper Midwest. Though much of the moisture looks to push north of the Mid-South come Wednesday, an increase in dewpoints is anticipated helping to potentially alleviate fire weather concerns.

As far as precipitation is concerned, our best shot looks to occur late with LREF hinting at a northwest flow regime beginning to build across the Mississippi Valley. How much moisture the Mid- South is able to retain will depend greatly on the strength of the aforementioned low pressure systems. Some potential good news, the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook has us favoring (40-50%) above normal precipitation chances heading into early November. Any precipitation will be appreciated as many areas across the Mid-South remain under Extreme Drought (D3) and a few areas under Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions.

AEH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions and light ESE/SE winds to all TAF sites through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Elevated fire danger concerns will continue as minimum relative humidity values range between 25-30% Saturday afternoon. 20 ft winds will remain light, but 10-hr fuels will teeter around 10% Saturday. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the entire Mid-South as a very dry airmass remains over the region. Expect patchy, to locally dense, radiation fog development each morning through the period. No rainfall is expected through at least mid-week next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.