textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire Mid-South through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Another hot day is ahead for us throughout the Mid-South as a strong, 594+ dm ridge remains centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley. This morning's surface observations already show temperatures climbing into the low 90s, which will peak around 100 through the majority of the region. Tropical dewpoints (> 70 F) will therefore help yield afternoon heat index values above 110 F across the entire region. As such, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect area wide. A similar forecast is expected tomorrow where 110 F heat indices are forecast with the Extreme Heat Warning still in effect as dangerous heat continues through the southern and central CONUS. CAMs show that some showers could develop in the afternoon and evening across southern MO and northern AR, potentially tracking into portions of eastern AR and the MO Bootheel. However, the mixing required to reach the convective temperature (105+ F) would bring LCLs above 2000 m, promoting enough evaporation of precipitation to prevent meaningful precipitation from making it to the surface and reducing heat relief.

The ridge will continue to sit over the region into early next week with daily highs in the middle to upper 90s, potentially climbing over 100 F in some areas Monday and Tuesday. One possible caveat to the forecast next week is that the dewpoints will decrease through daily mixing of mid-level, dry air to the surface over the next several days. Lower dewpoints would mean lower heat index values, which are currently forecast to fall below 110 F Monday and Tuesday with some areas falling below 105 F Tuesday. However, afternoon temperatures will remain dangerous and will warrant new heat headlines for some areas, but have deferred this decision to a later forecast issuance to get a better gauge on spatial trends of where heat headlines will be needed.

By the middle of next week and into the following weekend, ensembles are slowly converging on a new pattern taking hold over the eastern CONUS. Through the early parts of this upcoming week, an area of troughing should begin to amplify just off the west coast of OR/WA in the Pacific. Downstream ridging will amplify in response across the Rockies, subjecting the westerlies across the northern Plains and Midwest to a northwesterly deflection. The end result is an area of troughing gradually forming over the eastern CONUS that would act to cool the region. But the level of cooling is still relative with highs beyond Wednesday forecast to remain in the 90s with afternoon heat index values approaching the triple digits. Some rain is possible as troughing settles in towards the end of the week, but any precipitation would be associated with diurnal heating and is currently expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. Regardless, for now, some relief is finally beginning to appear in the forecast that would bring an end to the extreme heat plaguing the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR, isolated high-based daytime cumulus and light southwest winds will continue through Sunday, under strong ridging aloft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Dangerous heat is forecast to continue through the period with afternoon heat index values exceeding 110 F through Sunday afternoon and up to 110 F on Monday. Fire dangers are still expected to be low amidst minimum relative humidity values between 30% and 40% with light 20ft winds. Expect dry conditions with the potential for a couple, light showers across northeastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and portions of West Tennessee Sunday evening. Otherwise, precipitation-free conditions will continue into the early portions of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.