textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the entire Midsouth through Sunday evening. The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through Monday for areas west of a Jackson, Tennessee to Tupelo, Mississippi line. A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas to the east of this line for Monday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a weak frontal boundary late tonight and Monday. Temperatures will moderate behind this front on Tuesday, but still likely reach Heat Advisory criteria over north Mississippi, southwest Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.

- More widespread relief from the extreme heat is expected late this week, with temperatures returning to near normal.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level ridge axis extending through the Midsouth, roughly along the I-40 corridor and reflected in 500mb heights around 597dam. We remained situated between tropical easterly flow along the Gulf coast and an MCS wave train extending from KS to IL and points eastward. 12Z LZK sounding showed 700mb temps of 13C, which is warm even for mid-August.

Through Tuesday afternoon, the ridge axis will drop south near the Gulf coast, while modest height falls occur over the lower OH River Valley, concurrent with an MCS moving east-southeast from MO. A weak surface cold front, possibly convectively-reinforced, will sag into northern portions of the Midsouth toward daybreak Monday. A few CAMs depict isolated shower and thunderstorm development Monday afternoon, likely aided by the return of modest deep layer shear and surface dewpoint pooling in the mid/upper 70s. If these dewpoints verify, 700mb temps of 10-12C will likely be insufficient to cap deep moist convection completely, and some areas may experience a localized relief from the heat Monday afternoon.

500mb heights will continue a modest decline on Tuesday, as light northerly flow prevails at the surface. Areas to the east and north of Memphis may fall short of Heat Advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon, which would be welcome. This relief will be interrupted on Wednesday by prefrontal return flow developing ahead of moderate midlevel height falls through the Midwest. These height falls will make it to the Midsouth on Thursday, aided by shortwave trough diving southeast from the central plains. By Thursday afternoon, the upper ridge will be well- removed from the Midsouth and centered over the 4-corners region. Among the medium range global models, there is relatively good consensus in showing continued height falls and an associated cold frontal passage late Thursday into Friday. This would bring a chance of thunderstorms, followed by the return of near normal temperatures next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions forecast at all terminals through the forecast period. Light west-northwesterly winds will continue between 5 - 10 knots. Satellite imagery trends indicate that some convective showers may develop in the first few hours of the period, with minimal impacts possible at JBR through this evening. A gust front is then expecting to swing south into the region tonight and tomorrow morning, bringing a northwesterly wind shift. Some showers may attempt to develop along the boundary into the afternoon hours, but low confidence in the position of the boundary and the coverage of any -SHRA/TSRA prevented any mention in the TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity is forecast to range from 40 to 50 percent through midweek. Due to dry and warm soils, nighttime fog formation is not expected. A cold frontal passage will bring a chance of wetting rainfall late Thursday into early Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ004>006- 009-017.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ004>006-009-017.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001>003-007- 008-010>016-020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004- 019>022-050>055-090>092.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-050>055-090>092.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ048-049-088- 089.