textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather late tonight into tomorrow morning with a continued Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) through the daytime Monday. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances will continue for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures remaining in the mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

All is quiet with partly cloudy skies across the Mid-South as of 11 AM as a cold front slowly moves east/northeast across central Missouri. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase in the coming hours ahead of this boundary. A few, isolated cells could develop as moisture pulls ahead, but confidence is fairly low for afternoon coverage.

The highlight of this forecast period will be tonight for strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary. HREF probabilities for severe weather ingredients (>1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30kts of bulk shear) are high, >70%) during peak heating hours across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. The probabilities drop off rather drastically after sunset and hover around 50% or less. Due to this drop off, and an evident EML on model soundings, convection tonight could become elevated. The EML keeps LCLs rather high which lowers confidence in the tornado threat maturing, but with a linear storm mode; a quick spin-up is not out of the question. The HRRR is currently an outlier in terms of shear/helicity which could describe the high probabilities from the HREF. The NAMNest and GEPs have severe weather potential lowering with each subsequent run as it displays the swath of convection decaying before its arrival.

The primary source of model discrepancy is the predicted track of the parent low. The HRRR has the low tracking due east across the Midwest while the NAMNest is more northeasterly towards the Great Lakes. Nonetheless, if a single cell does develop ahead of the line prior to sunset, there is plenty of available instability to work with. The line still does not look to approach until after 10 PM, so the 7-10 PM time frame is still uncertain with isolated coverage. Despite the severe weather threat looming, PW values remain near to slightly above climatology. Any storm could be an efficient rainfall producer and may cause a localized flooding threat. Most of the northern half of the Mid-South has been dry for the last few days while portions of north Mississippi remain well saturated. Flooding concern is rather low, with the exception of urban areas, for tonight as storm motion is not parallel to the boundary.

There is another marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms as the front is not expected to clean sweep the area overnight. Tomorrow would bring a greater flooding threat as most of the rainfall will be over north Mississippi. While there is uncertainty in the severe threat from the overnight period, there is overall uncertainty for rain chances tomorrow due to the reasons mentioned above. At this time, it appears unlikely for large scale destabilization in this area, but the flooding threat is still prevalent.

After Monday, northwest flow aloft will take over and keep sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Several disturbances look to cross the region through the workweek. Greatest coverage chances look to be on Wednesday and Friday, but not everyday will be a washout. Severe weather probabilities from the LREF through the workweek are 20% or less, so prepare for cooler temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Dry conditions may return next weekend with broad troughing in the west and high pressure to the east.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Potential for a somewhat messy TAF period between uncertainties with afternoon convection today and a frontal boundary moving through the airspace overnight and through the day tomorrow. If there were to be temporary drops this afternoon, it would likely be for TUP with even lower chances at MEM/JBR. There is too much uncertainty to mention anything other than VCSH at this time. As for the overnight frontal boundary, carried PROB30s for all four TAF sites with the most likely time of TSRA-related and cig impacts, which will likely be changed to FM or TEMPO groupings in later TAF cycles. For the most part, impacts would likely be after 05Z starting with JBR and ending by 18Z with TUP. Winds will remain S/SW and gusty through much of the TAF, becoming W near the end of the current TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.