textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- A cold front brings a limited severe weather risk on Tuesday, with damaging winds and large hail as primary concerns, though overall confidence remains low.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily through the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Warm and modestly humid conditions are underway as of 11 AM as upper level ridging dominates most of the southeast. A cold front will traverse across the Northern Plains in the coming hours. Ahead of this boundary, Gulf moisture will surge northerly across the Mid-South resulting in the development of a Cu field. The near surface layer still remains vastly dry, so if any precipitation does squeeze from the Cu field, sprinkles will be the likely form, and mainly concentrated to the MS Delta region. Nonetheless, mostly dry and hot conditions are expected today as highs warm into the upper 80s and near 90 degrees. The same frontal boundary will remain generally confined to the northern Plains and Midwest region until at least Monday evening, so expect another hot and humid day on Monday with low (generally less than 30%) PoPs throughout Monday. Monday evening, the aforementioned cold front will begin its southeast trek and increase shower and thunderstorm chances.

There is already Slight and Marginal (levels 2/5 and 1/5 respectively) Risks for severe weather for Tuesday. Temperatures will warm to near 90 degrees, or slightly over, with dewpoints anticipated near or slightly above 70 degrees. This will surge instability values with 0-3km lapse rates around 8C/km and SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. The limiting factor, decreasing confidence in this setup, is a lacking shear profile. 0-6km bulk shear is ~20kts, which favors mostly single cells and perhaps clusters of multi-cells as storm mode. Given the instability profile, damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns if a storm does reach severe limits. The 0-6km bulk shear does look to increase as the nocturnal LLJ gets established, with models showing steepening height falls. While shear does increase at night, the surface will begin to cool slightly, lowering surface based instability and increasing the likelihood of EML development. The window of severe weather could be very limited, if any, if shear does not trend upwards during the afternoon hours before daytime heating runs out. This is something to keep an eye on as confidence is low at this time.

The cold front that will begin impacting the region on Tuesday will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the area for the rest of the work week as an anticipated stall of the boundary appears likely. This will be something to keep an eye on also as PW values will remain around 1.75", which is between the 90th- 95th percentiles for this time of year. While ongoing drought conditions will welcome this rainfall, the stalled boundary to the south will likely result in training storms. The shear profile does look more defined in its southwest to northeast motion, so stationary downpours do not appear to be a concern. We will be monitoring this for a developing flood concern as this front will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms potentially through next Saturday. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern after Tuesday as the rain will keep instability at bay.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Short-term models indicate a potential for isolated showers or a thunderstorm developing along and west of the MS river towards early this evening. However, confidence remains too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this time. Sustained south winds are expected to remain elevated into Monday with gusts occurring during peak heating.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next week as humid conditions prevail. Wetting rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday and will last into next weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.