textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected to continue into Sunday.

- A strong cold front will bring gusty winds Sunday and widespread rainfall late Sunday into early Monday. A significant temperature drop will follow this front on Monday.

- The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens and 20s each day next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Ample radiational cooling, a cold front draped to our north, and calm winds has brought a great environment for patchy to dense fog overnight. We are monitoring this progression closely, as conditions (visibilities at or less than 1/4SM) may warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, especially north of the Tennessee and Mississippi stateline. A low stratus deck will also begin to build in over the Mid-South overnight and linger through much of the day Saturday. Persistent upper-level ridging will remain over the Mississippi Valley tomorrow, bringing another day of near record breaking high temperatures in the mid 70s.

A pattern change will occur Sunday as this ridge begins to slide east and northwest flow begins to set in, ahead of a cold front and an upper-level trough. Sunday morning, the pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned cold front will tighten and bring gusty winds to around 35 mph. A Wind Advisory may need to be issued in later forecast packages as current LREF probs have >70% chance of >35 mph gusts Sunday. Widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Sunday afternoon with lift from this front and increased dewpoints in the 60s. Severe weather chances are slim to none as the latest LREF guidance has around a 10% chance of >200 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30 kts of wind shear.

Shower chances should begin to diminish by sunrise Monday as the cold front pushes past the Mid-South. Precipitation should end before freezing temperatures arrive, resulting in no mention of wintry precipitation Monday morning. Our messaging will then transition to brisk conditions as freezing temperatures will be present. This, in combination with wind gusts up to 35 mph, will result in wind chills being in the 20s and 30s. High temperatures will only reach into the 30s along and north of I-40 and the 40s to the south on Monday. Tuesday morning and Tuesday will be the coldest of the next 7 day stretch with morning lows in the teens to lower 20s and afternoon highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wind chills Tuesday morning will be in the lower teens across the board.

This really cold snap will be short-lived, however, as southwest flow builds across the region by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal with highs reaching into the mid 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Long range models are hinting at another cold air mass moving in over the Mid-South by Friday. Stay tuned.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The biggest aviation concern over the next 9ish hours will be the fog potential overnight, with IFR to LIFR conditions developing. TUP is already experiencing drops in visibilities with MKL/JBR expected to follow suit by around 09Z. KMEM is the one terminal with uncertainty, but have included a mention for now. MKL and JBR both have the highest probability of seeing IFR and LIFR by sunrise. Conditions will slowly improve through the morning, with improvements back to predominantly VFR by around 18Z across the airspace. Southwesterly winds will pick up in speed by the afternoon, increasing to around 7 to 9 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum through the weekend as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50%. 20 ft winds will be elevated, upwards of 20 mph, on Sunday. However, fire weather concerns will remain low as wetting rain chances return Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday, ahead of a cold front.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.