textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Scattered strong thunderstorms will persist overnight with a frontal passage. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging winds. These storms will primarily affect West Tennessee and portions of north Mississippi.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas south of the front, where heat indices will be 105 or greater Wednesday afternoon.

- Heat and humidity will moderate Thursday and Friday, following Wednesday's cold frontal passage. However, heat indices in excess of 100 degrees will likely return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Strong thunderstorms are currently propagating southward along a cold front across West Tennessee, with outflow-driven convection extending into portions of southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. The primary hazards associated with this activity include gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and intense lightning. Damaging wind gusts remain a possibility through the next several hours, particularly over West Tennessee. The severe weather threat is expected to diminish overnight as the primary jet streak exits the region and instability wanes.

On Wednesday, the front is forecast to stall before eventually pushing south by morning, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for much of the area. Despite the frontal passage, heat indices of 105F or higher are anticipated in southern counties, where a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM. By Thursday, noticeably drier air will keep heat indices near ambient temperatures, with afternoon highs ranging 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms.

Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to make landfall in southeast Texas Thursday night. In its wake, a subtropical ridge will retrograde westward while broad troughing develops over the Ohio Valley, placing the Mid-South in a northwest flow regime through the weekend. A marine frontal passage on Saturday will likely bring a return of elevated heat and humidity.

Current model guidance suggests that shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow may trigger a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) late Friday night. However, confidence regarding severe potential remains low due to significant spread in LREF and deterministic guidance. By early next week, long-range guidance indicates the subtropical ridge will build eastward, leading to increasing heat and humidity. NBM 50th percentile values suggest apparent temperatures will climb well above the 100-degree mark areawide during this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A surface cold front is currently moving south through the region accompanied by numerous thunderstorms. TS is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period at both MEM/MKL, eventually making its way south towards TUP through the first 3 - 4 hours of the forecast. TS will eventually diminish with a northerly wind shift as the front settles across northern Mississippi through the day Wednesday. VFR will continue through the end of the forecast at all terminals, but winds will be gusty right along the boundary, impacting MEM through the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Minimum RH values are forecast to remain above 40 percent through the next several days. Following a cold frontal passage, 20-foot winds will shift northerly late tonight into early Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of the front this evening, primarily across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010-011-020>024.

TN...None.