textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning Friday afternoon with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

- Light rain is expected across the region today with only a quarter to a half-inch of rain accumulation expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for 12PM Friday through 6PM Sunday across the entire Mid-South. A potentially historic Winter Storm will impact the Mid-South with snow, sleet, and ice. Confidence has increased for heavy snow accumulations north of the I-40 corridor and significant ice accumulations over parts of north Mississippi.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

00Z Upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough encompassing much of the continental United States. Meanwhile, late evening surface analysis places a cold front in the Central Plains with the Mid-South on the western periphery of the surface high. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevail late this evening with temperatures in the 30s.

Downstream METAR observations show moisture beginning to increase downstream of the Mid-South along and south of the I-20 corridor. The air remains very dry over the forecast area this evening, with RH values as low as 30 to 40 percent. Short-term model trends and CAMs indicate it will take some time for the air to saturate over the forecast area overnight into Wednesday morning. Thus, confidence remains very low (<10% chance) of any brief wintry precipitation developing before temperatures warm above freezing. Rain showers will develop and overspread the area on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Rainfall amounts will average less than 0.20 inches north of I-40, and 0.25 to 0.40 inches south.

The cold front will drop south into the Lower Mississippi Valley into Thursday night. Conditions continue to look increasingly favorable for a significant late January winter storm to affect the entire Mid-South Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Deterministic and ensemble models agree in the evolution of a longwave trough over the Southwest U.S. This trough will absorb the upper-level low near Baja California. This pattern will result in the Lower Mississippi Valley being in a favorable location for ample moisture and lift. While model soundings indicate a below freezing profile north of I-40, a pronounced 850- 700 mb warm nose will be present over portions of north Mississippi where precipitation is expected to be mainly freezing rain. NBM probabilities for ice accumulation average around 60 percent for a 0.25 inches or greater, and 40 percent 0.50 inches or greater. For areas north of the TN/MS state line, snow accumulation probabilities are greater than 60 percent for at least 4 inches, and 40 percent for at least 8 inches. Further adjustments in potential snow and ice accumulations may be necessary if the depth of the cold air changes in subsequent model runs. Watches are expected in the next 24-36 hours if current forecast trends continue with subsequent model datasets.

In addition to the significant wintry precipitation, very cold temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week as a 1040 mb arctic surface high settles into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Consequently, sub-freezing temperatures are expected across the area perhaps until the middle of next week and Cold Weather Headlines may also become necessary.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A cold front is approaching the region. Showers will continue to spread across the area through much of the day. Cigs will gradually lower across the Mid-South, eventually becoming IFR areawide this afternoon. Behind the cold front, the gradient weakens this evening, resulting in LIFR cigs with fog likely from late evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as indicated by the HREF and HRRR. Winds will start to gradually pick up toward sunrise on Thursday, and conditions will improve back to VFR.

SJM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A cold front will reach the Mid-South Wednesday and bring wetting rains and higher humidity values through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday that will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.