textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with very mild conditions lasting through Saturday.

- Periods of light showers and drizzle are anticipated through Tuesday night.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall on Sunday, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

The latest surface analysis places a 1034mb high off the Carolina and Virginia coast with a stationary front strewn from western Iowa southeast through central Illinois back into Kentucky. Return flow has strengthened across the Mid-South this evening and dewpoint temperatures have climbed into upper 50s and lower 60s. Warm air advection will continue through the overnight hours with low stratus and bouts of drizzle and light fog through daybreak Tuesday.

A 588 dam upper level ridge, currently over Texas, will build north and east over the next 24 hours. There is very high confidence that anomalously warm air will blanket the region Tuesday through Saturday with mainly rain-free conditions. NBM guidance continues to come in on the lower end of guidance for highs each day, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is still 20 to 25 degrees above normal for late December. However, MOS guidance is more closely aligned with NBM 90, which yields highs in the low to mid 70s or near record maximums. Very mild low temperatures are anticipated each day, which is where a few records are at most risk of being broken.

The upper level ridge will dampen this weekend in response to a phasing Arctic trough and Pacific trough over the Northern Plains. LREF guidance remains consistent with a cold front pushing down through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday with widespread rainfall. A blast of Arctic air is looking more likely early next week as NBM high temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s early next week. This will lead to a rapid change in weather conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

MVFR and IFR CIGs will continue to impact all sites at the beginning of the period as a large fetch of moisture streams into the Mid-South. KNQA has been detecting light rain showers throughout the night that will continue through this morning. There is a bit of uncertainty whether or not the precipitation is rain or drizzle, but impacts should be minimal regardless. CIGs will remain IFR at MEM/MKL/JBR through 18z before cloud bases mix into MVFR afterwards. The main axis of precipitation will also slowly shift east with some uncertainty regarding how late precipitation will persist. Regardless, most guidance has precipitation ending by 00z at the latest with MVFR CIGs continuing at MEM/MKL/JBR through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive on Sunday, followed by a blast of Arctic air early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.