textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Areas of dense fog are possible through Saturday morning, especially along and north of I-40.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the weekend, with a low chance for a few strong storms late Sunday.

- Conditions continue to look favorable for severe thunderstorms on Monday, with at least a 30% chance in some locations. Please continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers continue across northern Mississippi and portions of eastern Arkansas behind a line of thunderstorms that passed through the region earlier on Friday. Trends in radar observations indicate that showers will continue to move south and wane in coverage through the night, ending sometime before sunrise Saturday. Moistening of the boundary layer from Friday's rainfall has already pushed dewpoint depressions towards 0 F as of the time of writing. So, with weak to non-existent surface winds, dense fog could very well develop through this morning, especially along and north of I-40 where these conditions are already present. Recent HRRR runs this evening and HREF guidance also point towards this solution. Have decided to not issue a Dense Fog Advisory as of 04z and we will continue to monitor trends through the night.

Zooming back out, the upper pattern is forecast to contain two predominant features through this weekend: 1) a closed low over southern Canada and 2) quasi-zonal, subtropical southwesterlies. The boundary associated with the convection to our south will stall somewhere between the Mid-South and Gulf coastline, but will remain close enough to keep some PoPs in the forecast Saturday and Sunday. Expect showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the southern half of the region.

Through Sunday night and into Monday, a powerful jet streak will develop in the subtropical flow over the southwestern CONUS and travel eastward with a surface cyclone developing in tandem over the Plains. Moisture-rich air will surge north ahead of this system with surface dew points reaching into the upper 60s and low 70s through the Mid-South by late Monday morning. An EML will be in place above this airmass, which will push instability values to high levels (2500 - 3500 J/kg) through Monday evening. This is concerning considering guidance continues to place sufficient westerly bulk shear (35+ knots) in this environment for storm organization, which has already prompted SPC to place an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk over the northern portions of the region with a Slight (level 2/5) Risk as far south as Memphis. However, widespread CINH may keep storms at bay long enough into Monday evening to avoid a larger severe weather episode and is currently the main aspect of the forecast keeping confidence from being higher for our region.

A cold front will follow the severe weather Monday, pushing into north Mississippi into Tuesday morning. Medium-range models show that the front will push back north through Tuesday, yielding another warm, moist boundary layer with moderate instability into the afternoon hours. Bulk shear values have remained north of 40 knots for several cycles now, which indicates that another round of severe weather is possible through Tuesday evening. Upper westerlies will be zonal, eliciting a weak surface response. So, for now, severe hazards look mostly limited to severe wind and hail Tuesday with the possibility for a tornado or two.

After Tuesday, the front will finally clear the region to our south as a cold front, scouring the southern CONUS of the tropical moisture through the end of the week. Some showers are still possible as upper flow rides over the boundary, but confidence begins to decrease considerably through the end of the week and severe weather chances are negligible. Regardless, high temperatures will fall back below 80 degrees Wednesday and likely to remain this way through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low clouds and fog will gradually lift this morning with VFR conditions returning to all sites by 18z. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail thereafter with a chance of light fog late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms Friday have brought much-needed wetting rains to portions of the region and will serve to keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire dangers are expected to be low through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>005- 007-008-012>014.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.