textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Temperatures will fall to near or below freezing each morning through Sunday.

- Dry conditions above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and into early next week, aiding in melting of residual ice, sleet, and snow.

- Isolated shower chances return next Tuesday and again in the latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A slightly warmer night is on the display at this hour with current temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s under mostly clear skies with slightly elevated north/northeast winds at the surface. A weak, dry cold front pushed southeast over the Mid- South this afternoon into evening, and currently sits just south of our area. Cooler air is slowly filtering in and will continue into the overnight hours. Saturday morning lows will be near or below freezing, likely leading to refreezing of any wet surfaces from ice, sleet, snow melt, potentially resulting in a few slick spots. Afternoon temperatures Saturday will fall closer to normal for mid February with highs in the 40s and 50s behind this front.

This "cooldown" won't last long, however, as upper-level ridging from the High Plains will continue building across the Mississippi Valley and southwest winds filter in warmer air. Highs Sunday will be in the low 50s to mid 60s with continued dry weather. Warmer temperatures will aid in residual ice, sleet, snow melt across the Mid-South. Monday will be much the same, but a little warmer and further above normal as the aforementioned ridge broadens over the region with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday, ensemble members are indicating that a cut-off low will begin to push in from the southern California Baja. Ahead of this cut-off low, a few embedded shortwaves and a very weak surface cold front will begin to give lift to increased moisture across the Middle Mississippi Valley. By midday Tuesday, shower chances (30-50%) will begin to increase and continue into midday Wednesday. However, rainfall amounts look very meager as the latest LREF guidance is indicating <20% chance of greater than a quarter inch of rainfall across our area. Beyond Wednesday, persistent ridging looks to continue building in from the High Plains keeping temperatures slightly above normal through at least the end of the week.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A cold front has moved south of the region. N/NE winds continue to slowly diminish and will remain light through Saturday. Stratocu will graze West TN, so will continue a SCT025 at MKL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the next several days as minimum relative humidity values remain around 40- 60%. A brief cooldown behind a cold front will occur Saturday. Above normal temperatures will return Sunday. Our next shot at any appreciable rainfall returns Tuesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.