textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist into early next week with high temperatures mainly in the 80s.

- Rain shower chances return as early as Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Surface high pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada as of this evening, keeping east-northeasterlies across the region. Aloft, a cutoff low currently sits just off the Northeast Coastline with broad, low-amplitude ridging over the desert Southwest. Therefore, the forecast for Sunday is to remain cool with elevated, light rain showers and highs in the 80s. Dry air near the surface, which has been producing afternoon dewpoint depressions above 20 F, will very likely evaporate any attempts for rain to reach the ground. Additionally, such dry conditions will yield afternoon relative humidity values below 30%, potentially dropping below 20% in portions of northern Mississippi. This presents above-average fire danger due to a lack of widespread, appreciable rainfall during the heat wave earlier in September.

The remnants of Hurricane Polo will phase with a trough in the southern Rockies through the middle of next week. Lee cyclogenesis will kick off ahead of the modified trough over the southern Plains, which will in turn lead to southerly surface winds returning to the region. A warm up is then expected to take place Tuesday and Wednesday with highs climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Moisture will also increase as well, but diurnal mixing is currently expected to keep dewpoints low enough to not warrant any heat index concerns through the middle of the week.

Ensembles have begun to converge on the evolution of the trough, generally lifting the trough axis northeast into the Midwest through the end of next week. However, some ensemble members, and even a few deterministic runs, show the troughing becoming cutoff over the southern Plains. In this scenario, an extended period of warmer, more humid weather would be in store. All of this is to say that the last few days of the forecast period remain mired in uncertainty that has drastic effects on our temperature and precipitation forecast, but while the trough remains to our west, expect warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances. By the end of the forecast period next Saturday, forecast uncertainty explodes, casting further doubt on the evolution of the upper and surface patterns into early October.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites throughout the 06Z TAF period. Light winds will increase to NNE/NE winds between 6-8 kts on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop to near 30% across much of the region each afternoon through Tuesday. The lowest minimum relative humidity values-generally below 30%-will occur in portions of northern Mississippi on Sunday afternoon. There is a 40% to 50% chance for localized areas to drop below 20%. Additionally, 10-hour fuels areawide will drop to near 10% through Tuesday as warm, dry weather remains situated across the region with wetting rains not expected until Thursday at the earliest.

Therefore, fire danger will remain elevated through the next few days until higher Gulf moisture can arrive Wednesday. Fortunately, 20-foot winds are forecast to remain under 10 mph through this portion of the forecast. Wetting rain chances return Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the region, but this portion of the forecast is still uncertain and precipitation chances are expected to change in the coming days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.