textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s through the end of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures continue. The 12z sounding out of LZK depicts a stout dry level between 850- 500mb. The drier air aloft will continue to mix down to the surface and lower dewpoints and relative humidity (RH) values through the afternoon. Due to the expected drop of RH values with 10 hour fuel moisture forecasts around 10%, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon until 7 PM.

While we remain under surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft, expect stagnant conditions to persist for much of the forecast period. An omega blocking pattern will keep the synoptic pattern on hold through early next week. We will be monitoring the trough on the west side of the block and its evolution for next week. The LREF and its ensemble members are not too keen on impacts across the Mid-South with a gradual breakdown of the ridge and the energy heading towards the upper Midwest. Some of the longer range deterministic models are following closely behind the ensembles. In the meantime, expect dry conditions, slightly above normal temperatures, and elevated fire danger to persist.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR and light northeast winds will continue under a persistent upper level high pressure ridge.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue again on Thursday. Low surface moisture will lead to minimum relative humidity values dropping below 30% across the entire region. 10-hour fuels are expected to remain at or around 10 percent fuel moisture. Light 20-foot winds, likely peaking at only 10 mph throughout the afternoon, will preclude the need for Red Flag Warnings. Similar conditions will continue through the remainder of the period, likely necessitating additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements through this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.