textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Early morning fog and patchy frost is expected over the next couple of mornings.

- Near-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail through midweek with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- A cold front will bring a cooldown late week, with crisp mornings and chilly conditions returning to the forecast into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Another chilly night will unfold with mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. Expect patchy fog, some locally dense, to develop once more as dewpoint depressions sink. Any fog should diminish shortly after sunrise and a slightly above normal temperature fall day will unfold. The warming will continue as the synoptic pattern begins to change with troughing emerging in the west. Moisture will pull ahead of the trough, supplying modest warming as well as increasing dewpoint values. This trough is on the weaker side so minimal impacts are expected. The best PW values creep up to around the 75th percentile on Wednesday. Given this prolonged strong area of high pressure, it will take much more moisture than currently projected to bring high QPF values across the region. Current probabilities from the LREF for wetting rainfall (0.10" ) or more from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning are hovering around 60% near the Tennessee River Valley with lesser values elsewhere. These probabilities drop off significantly (25% or less) for receiving 0.25" of rainfall or more.

An attendant cold front will also sweep the region Thursday associated with a low pressure system from the parent trough, bringing continental polar air behind it. Temperatures will begin to plummet behind this front, with Thursday's forecast highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.. Though we are still several days out, Friday looks to be pretty brisk as the pressure gradient behind this deepening trough begins to tighten. Saturday morning could also bring our first areawide freeze of the season with probabilities from the NBM for temperatures <32F are greater than 50%.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Broad high pressure supports continued light winds and VFR conditions across the terminals through the forecast period. There is a low chance of fog, but it will remain confined to areas near bodies of water.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

High pressure will remain in place through the weekend with cool and dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures will begin to moderate into midweek with dry air remaining in place. Minimum relative humidity values may fall below 40% in a few locations, mainly over NE MS, Monday and Tuesday. Though a few light showers may occur Wednesday, no appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days. Therefore, increased fire danger might exist by the end of next week. Early morning fog is expected both Monday in areas mainly north of the TN and MS stateline.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.