textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Summer heat will return to the Mid-South with highs in the low to the middle 90s for the next week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the MS River Delta for Friday Afternoon. Further heat headlines may be needed into the weekend.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return to northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Recent satellite obs show an advancing outflow boundary beginning to stall across far NE AR, MO bootheel and NW TN. Behind the boundary NE winds and slightly cooler, but more humid conditions provide no real relief from summer heat. A transient shower could form along or behind this boundary later this afternoon, but widespread coverage or rainfall is expected.

The persistent ridge across Central CONUS will continue ushering in warmer temps over the weekend. Combined with southerly flow drawing more moisture into the area swampy conditions will return through the weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect in the MS River Delta for Friday afternoon, and further heat products into the weekend and next week will be on the table.

Rain chances over the weekend could help limit some of the heat. An upper level trough in phase with a weak short wave should help drive PoPs as it gets squeezed between two high pressures systems sieging the FA. After this weak system and PoPs look to be limited to any afternoon summer-time popups.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Light winds and VFR will continue at all terminals through tonight. A few showers are possible around JBR overnight from decaying convection, but confidence was too low to introduce within the 00z TAF. Through Friday, an increase in TSRA coverage is expected through the afternoon. Models indicate that the best zone for TS impacts will extend from eastern Arkansas and into portions of West Tennessee. So, have included PROB30s for MEM/JBR/MKL to cover the TS threat through sunset. Additional storm development is possible through the late evening during the last 6 hours of the MEM TAF, but confidence in the coverage of TS is currently too low to warrant its introduction beyond 00z Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Lowest RH values of at or below 40th percentile remain south of I-40 across N MS. A return to sthrly flow Friday will begin to raise Min RHs back above the 50th percentile Friday afternoon. PoPs return over the weekend as a weak system moves in from the north.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010.

TN...None.