textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border. A strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

- Cooler, drier air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- An unsettled pattern persists through next week ahead of another cold front.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across the Mid- South as a stalled frontal boundary remains kinked across northwest Tennessee and into central Arkansas. This front will wiggle slightly south through the night before continuing its ascent north early Saturday morning. A few WAA advection showers may initiate along the leading edge of the boundary, but generally dry conditions are expected until tomorrow afternoon. An MCS will take a dive across northern portions of the region tomorrow afternoon.

Ahead of this MCS, low to medium (50% or less) probabilities of severe weather ingredients exist. The higher probabilities (30- 50% range) exist along the KY/TN border around 4 PM. The GFS and HRRR models are much more aggressive with this activity with over 2000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear is a bit higher than previous days with around 30kts across northwest TN. A damaging wind threat could emerge tomorrow afternoon with 60-65 mph gusts as the main concern. A cold front will trail shortly behind the MCS bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night. Current CAMs have the better forcing heading towards middle TN, but there is a possibility of another round of strong storms across the same area. The cold front will continue to sink southeast in the early hours on Sunday. This front will stall out briefly across middle MS on Monday bringing lingering rain chances to southeast AR and north MS. Northern portions of the area should be mostly dry on Monday and for most of the day on Tuesday. Monday will be a bit cooler with below normal highs in the mid 70s and low 80s.

Broad troughing from Canada across most of the central CONUS will aim another cold front at the Mid-South by midweek. Timing of the frontal passage, however, continues to change each subsequent model run. Previous days had this front crossing the area on Wednesday, where joint probabilities of severe weather ingredients peak for the week between 40-60%. This model sweep has the front passing through on Thursday before stalling out along the I-40 corridor. This will be something to keep an eye on for sure, but general consensus is that unsettled weather will stick around for the next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

There is some concern about low cloud and fog development in the wake of earlier convection. The highest chances for LIFR/IFR conditions will be at MKL and TUP, where a tempo for lower cigs and vsbys has been added. Otherwise, the next concern is MCS development over southern MO on Saturday morning. This activity could move into the northern parts of the Mid-South during Saturday afternoon and southern parts of the Mid-South by the evening. PROB30s have been added for all sites. Another MCS will approach the region late Saturday night so added another PROB30 at MEM for that. Winds will be light overnight, but will pick up from the SW during the day tomorrow with some gusts to 18- 22 at JBR and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.