textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- A warming trend will begin this weekend with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by Sunday afternoon.

- There is a 20 percent chance of isolated showers on Wednesday, but outside of this a prolonged dry spell is forecast for the Mid-South.

- Heat headlines will likely return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An upper level ridge, currently centered over the Four Corners region, will broaden east this weekend. As a result, above average temperatures return to the Mid-South with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Unfortunately, hot conditions will persist into next week as the ridge centers over the mid Mississippi Valley. The LREF continues to place low probabilities (less than 10 percent) of heat indices reaching 105 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. This is due to a lack of appreciable moisture returning into the Mid-South, keeping dewpoints on the lower end.

By midweek, both the GFS and ECMWF depict a weak upper level low slowly retrograding across middle Mississippi. This system will bring increased moisture to the Mid-South along with a low chance for isolated showers Wednesday into Thursday. Should any precipitation occur, amounts will be negligible. The greater impact brought by the upper low will be heat. Due to increased dewpoint temperatures, heat indices will approach and exceed 105 degrees by the end of the week. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed as early as Wednesday with the potential for Extreme Heat Warnings in the Mississippi Delta by the end of the week. Unfortunately, the long range outlook favors above normal temperatures through the beginning of September. No sign of fall just yet.

ANS

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR. Fog probabilities are low overnight due to the dry airmass in place. Winds are a little stronger than expected this morning, and they have been increased for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable overnight into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Over the weekend, minimum relative humidity values may fall below 35 percent as dry air continues to filter into the region. Low end fire weather concerns will emerge into next week as a prolonged dry period kicks off.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.