textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist through the end of the week, with little rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Wednesday. Expect heat indices to reach up to 109 degrees for some locations.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly into next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our prolonged, unseasonably warm weather pattern continues once again today with sunny skies and temperatures currently spanning the 90s across the Mid-South. Unfortunately, little to no relief is in sight for the foreseeable future, with a dry forecast persisting until at least the upcoming weekend. The high pressure system driving this pattern will continue to strengthen over the next few days, with high temperatures remaining in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees through the rest of the week. Dew point temperatures will generally remain in the upper 60s to low 70s in the afternoons, leading to heat index values hovering right around to above Heat Advisory criteria (105+). With increased confidence in our heat index values for tomorrow, the current Heat Advisory was extended through Wednesday evening. An additional extension into Thursday and / or Friday will likely be warranted for some of the Mid-South, but confidence is low in the exact location. Thus, will handle further extensions with later forecast packages. The compilation of upper 90 degree high temperatures, heat indices at or above 105 degrees, and long- duration of these temperatures has led to much of the area being included in a major to extreme heat risk. While overnight temperatures have been dipping back to the low to mid 70s, extra precautions should be taken through the daytime hours and especially during peak heating hours. Be sure to continue to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks if you must be outside in the afternoon hours.

By the beginning of next week, a weak upper-level trough will move across the Plains with another weak low meandering through the Gulf. Both of these systems will likely aid in breaking us out of the high pressure stronghold we have been in, although the timing is still questionable. The majority of ensemble guidance at this point has the temperature spread growing greatly by next Monday onward (around a 10 degree spread), thus suggesting overall low confidence in the forecast into next week. While a forecast change would certainly be welcome, we are certainly not out of the woods yet with the continued, oppressive heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as a dominant high pressure remains over the region. A few pop-up showers may form near TUP/MEM this afternoon, however, coverage remains too low to warrant a PROB30. Southerly winds will remain light over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dry conditions are expected to persist for the foreseeable future, with no precipitation chances in the forecast and minimum relative humidity values remaining in the 30 to 40% range. Wind speeds will generally remain below 10 mph through the period as well. No fog is expected overnight.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.