textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding remain the primary concern across the Mid-South this morning.

- A severe weather threat, including damaging wind gusts and a low tornado threat, will emerge this afternoon across north Mississippi.

- Conditions trend cooler and quieter Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by a transition to hot and humid weather late this week and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across northern portions of the Mid-South as of 11:15 AM. Torrential downpours and training storms have led to several flash floods so far this morning. Gradual clearing will follow behind the rain shield as a surface low tracks across Arkansas. There is a Slight Risk across north Mississippi for this afternoon and evening where the airmass is mostly untouched and further destabilization is anticipated. Remnants from the complex of storms that reside from this morning activity will help convective initiation this afternoon.

The storms this afternoon will be fueled by greater than 2000 J/kg of CAPE, but relatively modest shear of 25 kts. A few areas across extreme northeast Mississippi, east of Oxford, do have slightly better shear around 30 kts. These parameters raise concerns for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Helicity values on deterministic soundings are less than 200 m^2/s^2, even in the better sheared environments, but if a supercell does develop and ride right along the MCV track, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Rainfall should come to an end across the entire Mid-South as late as 10 PM and mostly dry conditions are anticipated for Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will prevail under northwest flow with high temperatures in the 80s, which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for the end of June. Northwest flow will continue through midweek with several disturbances projected to move across the area with the first disturbance aiming on Wednesday morning. There are low end probabilities (less than 30%) of severe weather ingredients with this disturbance. Given the climatological history of these MCVs, a Marginal Risk remains warranted for Wednesday.

A warm front looks to lift north on Thursday and bring shower and thunderstorm chances as well as increasing temperatures back into the upper 80s and 90s into late week and weekend. Long term guidance is hinting at a pattern shift away from wet and unsettled to hot and humid as a large area of high pressure may encompass much of the Southeast for the end of June.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A MCV located over eastern Arkansas will trek across the Mid- South this afternoon resulting in additional showers and thunderstorms. Expect a mix of occasional IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys with this convection. The convective activity will push east of the area by about 00z. There is some concern that low clouds and fog may develop in the wake of the departing MCV tonight. Latest HREF has a 50-60% chance of low clouds at TUP later tonight and retained the BKN015 forecast later tonight.

SW winds gusting to 20 kts are expected ahead of the MCV, veering west and northwest as the system moves through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ026>028-035-036- 048-049.

MO...None. MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>003-007-008.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ048>050-088>090.