textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Dangerous heat will continue this week with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees each day through Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect area wide through this evening.

- An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Thursday afternoon across portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi. A Heat Advisory remains in place over north-central and northeastern Mississippi.

- A Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe thunderstorms is now in place today across portions of West Tennessee and north Mississippi with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Morning upper air analyses still depict a strong, 594+ dm 500 mb ridge across the eastern CONUS, centered over the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. At the surface, a very moist, tropical air mass continues to sit over the same regions with dewpoints in the middle 70s. This pattern has allowed for several days of scorching heat indices, reaching well above the triple digits. The same will be the case today with forecast afternoon heat indices between 100 - 110 F across the entire Mid-South.

With such high dewpoints, MLCAPE values are forecast to climb well above 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Water vapor satellite imagery displays a weak area of troughing transiting the southern edge of the ridge in GA/AL, moving west. The relatively lower heights within this trough may be enough to trigger diurnal thunderstorm development in spite of the powerful ridge dominating the rest of the synoptic pattern. What is still uncertain, even just a few hours out, is the overall coverage of the convection that manages to develop this afternoon. Trends in this mornings' CAM runs point to an increase in coverage compared to last night. An expansive Cu field over northern GA/AL gives support to this trend with a few attempts at convective initiation as of 1730z. Therefore, thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon, and are expected to reach portions of West Tennessee and north Mississippi. Model soundings depict at least 1000 DCAPE and 10 - 20 knots of effective bulk shear, meaning storms will be capable of microbursts or damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.

The outflow from this afternoon's convection will make it through a good chunk of the region tonight, potentially bringing much needed relief from the heat overnight into Thursday morning. However, the ridge will not be going anywhere and temperatures are forecast to rise dramatically again through the morning hours. NBM guidance is keen on heat indices climbing to at least 110 F Thursday afternoon. Other guidance doesn't paint as warm of a picture, but the impacts will be the same nonetheless: oppressive, dangerous heat in a prolonged heat wave. So, after deliberating with our surrounding offices this morning, the decision was made to upgrade eastern AR, the MO Bootheel, West TN, and northwest MS an Extreme Heat Warning for Thursday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. Additional convection is possible tomorrow as the weak upper troughing pivots west, but forecast confidence is low as today's storms will affect tomorrow's environment.

Through the end of the week, the heat will remain across the region with ensembles and deterministic guidance alike keeping the ridge over the eastern CONUS through this upcoming weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be just a tad cooler than Thursday, between 105 - 110 F, through at least Saturday. Therefore, the entire region will be back to a Heat Advisory through Saturday evening. The remainder of the forecast period doesn't inspire too much optimism either. Ensembles are in good agreement that any northwesterlies aloft will remain across the northeastern CONUS, well displaced from the Mid-South. That being said, PoPs do increase through the weekend, which may help cool heat indices below 105 F each afternoon and lowering the confidence in the need for additional heat headlines into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Upper-level high pressure will remain over the area with light winds and mostly VFR conditions. The majority of the 12z CAMs favor scattered TSRAs later today with an associated outflow boundary originating in Alabama, moving west across mainly southern parts of the Mid-South, this afternoon and evening. Utilized the PROB30 groups for TSRA potential at TUP, MKL, and MEM for this afternoon and evening. The amount and location of convection this afternoon and evening will impact Thursday's TSRA chances. For now decided to leave any mention of TSRAs out for Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be limited through the next week. Hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid-South, with minimum relative humidity generally remaining at or above 40% each afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, increasing in coverage Sunday into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113- 115.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for MSZ001-007-010-011.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001- 007-010-011.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001- 007-010-011.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 012>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.