textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Low relative humidity will lead to elevated fire danger Monday afternoon. Use caution if burning outdoors and obey all local burn bans.

- A dry weather pattern will persist early this week with high temperatures mainly in the 80s.

- Rain shower chances return late this week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Sunday evening satellite and upper air observations place a closed upper trough over the New Jersey and New York Coastline. To its west, weak northerlies prevail over the Mississippi River Valley as far south as the Gulf Coast with a weak axis of ridging along the front range of the Rockies. Surface observations show a very dry air mass present over the Mid-South with dewpoints ranging between 45 - 55 F. Such dry air will lead to quick changes in temperature, which is expected to allow temperatures to fall into the low 60s and 50s tonight. Furthermore, cloud cover, which was forecast to be more prevalent by this point in the forecast, has generally failed to develop, leading to a faster drop in temperatures. Therefore, some areas could see lows approach 50 degrees Monday morning, particularly across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River.

Similar conditions are expected Monday to that of Sunday with a dry, seasonable air mass in place. Expect highs in the 70s and 80s and precipitation-free weather. However, both the REFS and HREF show afternoon relative humidity values dropping well below 30%, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Portions of the region, particularly across northern Mississippi, have a 50% chance of relative humidity values below 20%, which much of the region achieved today. This same forecast, or something similar, looks likely on Tuesday as well given the upper and surface patterns are expected to remain persistent. So, expect elevated fire danger to persist through Tuesday.

By Wednesday, what the remnants of Hurricane Polo will have phased into the eastern side of an upper trough crossing the southern Rockies. The combined trough axis will then swing into the southern Plains through Wednesday and Thursday with ridging amplifying upstream of the troughing over the southeastern CONUS. In response, southerlies are forecast to return to the Mid-South, leading to an increase in temperatures beginning Tuesday and increasing humidity Wednesday which will linger Thursday. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance continues to encourage higher forecast confidence for the end of the week with an increase in precipitation chances late Thursday and into next weekend. However, there are still notable differences in the evolution of the surface pattern amongst guidance that will dictate the overall scope and magnitude of any precipitation into next weekend. Current NBM guidance has roughly a 40% - 50% chance for 12 hour rainfall accumulation to exceed .25" Saturday and Sunday. So, rainier weather may be on the horizon by next weekend, but forecast uncertainties will likely allow for changes to the precipitation forecast through this week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Light winds will increase to NNE winds between 5- 8 kts on Monday, then become light by Monday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Afternoon relative humidity values will continue to drop to near or below 30% areawide Monday afternoon. Short-term model guidance continues to place a 40% - 50% for portions of northern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southern West Tennessee to see relative humidity values drop below 20%. Given that observations Sunday showed many areas across the region dropping to 20% or below, it is expected that this scenario will occur through Monday afternoon. The same guidance also displays a similar forecast Tuesday. On top of the dry air, 10-hour fuels will continue to drop to near 10% Monday and Tuesday. Wetting rains are not expected to arrive until late this week.

Therefore, fire danger remains elevated through at least Tuesday until moisture can be advected later this week. 20-foot winds will continue to stay on the lighter side, generally under 10 mph through Tuesday. The next best chance at wetting rains is forecast to arrive late Thursday and into Friday, lasting through next weekend. However, forecast uncertainty still remains later this week where changes in timing for the onset and magnitude of any wetting rains are expected.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.