textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected daily through this upcoming weekend, capable of heavy downpours.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

- A cold front will alleviate the region from muggy conditions by the middle of next week, leading to pleasant afternoon weather as early as Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Diminishing convective coverage is observed across the Mid-South late Wednesday evening as we lose instability. Given the lack of synoptic features, wind speeds will be quite low overnight. In conjunction with an exceedingly moist airmass, there is at least a 30% chance of dense fog development early Thursday morning, especially east of the Mississippi River. Patchy fog is almost a given considering the persistence forecast we have been in for several days, but keep an eye out for some dense fog on the Thursday morning commute. Observations will need to be monitored overnight for Dense Fog Advisory issuance.

Essentially a rinse and repeat forecast is on deck Thursday afternoon. The same messy surface pattern will evolve across the southeastern CONUS, giving way to showers and thunderstorms developing along a quasi-stationary boundary during peak heating. Again, there is little to no shear available to support any upscale growth. These will be mainly single celled thunderstorms reminiscent of summertime convection. As such, locally heavy rainfall in individual storms is going to be a factor through the weekend. With the isolated nature of this convection, most areas will not see any rain, but the ones that do could see an inch or so of rain in a given afternoon. This same wet pattern will be in place through at least the end of the weekend with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours.

The pattern finally starts to shift next week. Per the LREF, a large omega block is forecast to emerge over the Four Corners after a few days of shifting around. This will keep the eastern troughing centered right over the Mid-South, allowing us to stay in this cooler pattern. Little to no moisture advection from the Plains will also help curb humidity values to pleasant thresholds for early summer. However, residual moisture from the preceding airmass will take a while to disperse, so sporadic 20% PoPs are still in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Things finally start to dry out completely by midweek as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Regional radar trends and short term CAMs indicate convective activity should remain west of MEM and JBR overnight. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail initially overnight. A medium chance (>40%) exists for MVFR ceilings to develop at sites near or after sunrise Thursday, with IFR ceilings expected for a period at TUP. Additional diurnal convection is expected during peak heating on Thursday, with a potential for some residual isolated to scattered rain showers into Thursday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. There is a 30% chance for dense fog over portions of northeastern Mississippi tonight and into Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into early next week as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.