textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Temperatures will continue to warm into next week with a 50 percent chance of reaching 105 degree heat indices by Monday.

- A pattern change is indicated on long range guidance, producing variable high temperatures for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue Friday as a subtropical ridge builds over the western Gulf. A few afternoon showers and storms cannot be ruled out, but coverage will remain isolated to areas near the Tennessee River. Otherwise, expect highs to reach the low 90s areawide.

The upcoming weekend will be defined by the aforementioned ridge and the emergence of a tropical disturbance over the Florida peninsula. This regime will place the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft, keeping the area prone to shortwave passages. Rain chances will be confined to areas near the Tennessee River both Saturday and Sunday, but overall QPF amounts remain less than half an inch. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 90s, but higher readings cannot be ruled out in northwest Mississippi, where the subtropical ridge will be the more prominent synoptic level player. A Heat Advisory cannot be ruled out for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

Large model discrepancy manifests next week, complicating temperature forecasts. Overall consensus is that the warmest day will occur on Tuesday, where highs may reach the upper 90s. However, forecasts diverge into Wednesday as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. Both the GEFS and GEPS favor a stronger frontal passage due to a more westerly position of an upper level ridge. As a result, high temperatures decrease to the upper 80s and low 90s by Thursday. On the contrary, the ENS is much more bullish in the eastern extent of the aforementioned ridge, resulting in minimal temperature change post frontal passage. The NBM is picking up on these model discrepancies, resulting in a 8 degree high temperature spread amongst the 25th and 75th percentiles. For now, expect next week to be hot and humid with minimal rain chances.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated SHRA developed earlier this evening north of MKL to near JBR. Most of this activity has diminished but some redevelopment remains possible, aided by a weak midlevel low pressure just southwest of MEM. TS chance will remain low, however, and bases should remain above VFR threshold.

Friday will be a near repeat of Thursday with respect to TSRA coverage. Unlike Thursday, coverage will be less likely to favor any particular terminal or region of the Midsouth. As of discussion time, Thursday afternoon TS probabilities remain below the PROB30 threshold.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South and winds stay light.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.