textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and treacherous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Evening upper air analysis shows a broad upper-level trough encompassing most of the Continental United States, with a cutoff upper-level low located off the southern California Pacific Coast. Surface high pressure over southern Illinois is bringing precipitation-free weather to the Mid-South this evening. Water Vapor satellite trends show Pacific moisture producing mid and high level clouds over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Late evening temperatures are in the 30s to lower 40s.

Winds will increase across portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel on Friday as a 1040 mb surface high builds into portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Much of the guidance keeps winds below Wind Advisory criteria over this aforementioned area into Friday afternoon. Thus, our confidence remains too low at this time to consider any wind headlines. Precipitation free weather will continue into Friday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s north of I- 40, and upper 30s to upper 40s south.

Conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate Friday night as subtle mid-level shortwaves embedded within southwest flow aloft move across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Increasing lift associated with a developing low-level jet and adequate upper- level forcing will allow for precipitation to begin developing across the Mid-South mainly late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will begin as snow to the north, with sleet and freezing rain to the south. Short-term models including Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) suggest precipitation will come in two different waves with the second wave arriving later Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday as deeper lift and moisture overspread the region. The past several model runs including the 00Z NAM, have trended slightly warmer and shifted the area for mixed precipitation further north into portions of northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. The newly arrived 00Z GFS has trended slightly colder than the consensus.

Thus, snow and sleet accumulations have shifted down slightly in this issuance with snow and sleet amounts averaging between 5 to 9 inches across the northern third of the Mid-South, 2 to 5 inches along the I-40 corridor, and generally 2 inches or less mainly over northwest Mississippi with minimal amounts to the east. Ice accumulations will be less than two-tenths of an inch north of I-40, one-quarter to approaching one-half inch along the I-40 corridor, and crippling amounts in some cases exceeding 1 inch across much of north Mississippi and into portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The current Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warnings look reasonable at this time. We'll continue to monitor trends in subsequent model runs and adjust snow, sleet, and ice accumulations if temperature profiles come in cooler than currently forecast. Prepare to delay travel as roads and bridges are expected to be treacherous if not impossible this weekend.

A strong arctic high will build into the Lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of this prolonged wintry weather and will bring dangerous cold to the Mid-South. The combination of wintry precipitation, a very cold airmass, and excellent radiational cooling will result in high temperatures struggling to reach the 20s west of the Mississippi River on Sunday, and nearly areawide Monday, with lows near zero across portions of the area Sunday night and Monday night. Cold Weather Headlines continue to look likely, with long range model trends not indicating any significant warm up well into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR CIGs are anticipated through the period. The main impact during the day on Friday will be gusty winds as the pressure gradient tightens over the airspace. Sustained speeds in excess of 15 kts with gusts near 30 kts are anticipated. The greater concern emerges late in the period as a mixed bag of winter precipitation approaches from the west. Onset of snow at JBR will occur just outside of the 06Z timeframe Saturday. Sleet and freezing rain will approach MEM by 09Z, so added PL FZRA to TAF.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Saturated soils from wetting rains and higher humidity values are expected to last through into early next week. Expect accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday night that will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.