textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A persistence forecast is expected to unfold through the rest of the week with sporadic showers and thunderstorms each day. This is due in part by an upper level closed low over the Rockies, leading to large scale troughing over the central CONUS. The surface pattern looks very messy with several weak fronts and shortwave troughs, leading to a very summer-like convective regime of single celled thunderstorms this week given the lack of shear. The best coverage will peak during afternoon heating between 12PM and 8PM each day. Individual storms may produce locally heavy rainfall with the help of PWATs near 2 inches, but there is little to no synoptic support for a threat of heavy rainfall for the next few days.

The long range forecast suggests we will remain in this wet pattern at least through the end of the weekend. Longwave troughing aloft will remain in place, allowing enough large scale lift to promote daily rain chances above 60% through Saturday. LREF depicts a modified omega block emerging over central Canada next week, curbing PoPs a bit. A pattern shift to cooler and drier is on the horizon once this omega block starts to descend to the central CONUS. Northwest flow aloft will actually help keep temperatures on the cool side, either near normal or just below normal through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Latest HRRR and observations indicate IFR cigs at MEM, MKL and TUP this morning with dense fog at JBR. Conditions will lift to VFR this afternoon with diurnal SHRAs/TSRAs this afternoon into early this evening. Lower conditions will redevelop by early Wednesday across at least parts of the Mid-South. Winds will be light through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001-002- 019-048-049-088.