textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Patchy to dense fog could develop across portions of north Mississippi into early Sunday morning.

- A Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions emerge each day next week in a quiet pattern.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Mostly clear skies and cool conditions can be found across the region at this hour. There is a well defined cloud deck traversing much of the southeast as a shortwave digs across southern Louisiana. Associated with the shortwave, an increasing moisture profile is evident on water vapor satellite imagery. Although the moisture is not as strong across the Mid-South, the increasing moisture will still raise dewpoints as temperatures cool, which will shrink dewpoint depressions. Skies are also on the verge of clearing as well as light to calm winds forecasted overnight. Generally, north Mississippi is the area to watch into Sunday morning for fog development. The moisture axis could stretch a bit further north in typical troublesome fog areas. The HRRR is aggressive with its forecast for widespread and dense fog, but other cams are more favorable for patchy and locally dense fog. Nonetheless, a Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted overnight if the HRRR solution comes to life.

A low pressure system, currently traversing eastwards across Ontario is stretching a cold front across most of the central US. This front will continue to dive southeasterly and reach the Mid- South early Sunday morning. This will provide enough lift and moisture pull to increase shower and thunderstorm chances. There is, however, ample dry air aloft which has brought QPF values and PoPs down significantly from 24 hours ago. PWs are near climatology for this time of year, so not expected to have any flooding concerns. The Marginal Risk for severe weather continues to suffice for the multi-cell event anticipated to unfold Sunday afternoon. The surface to 3km lapse rates in southwest Arkansas/northwest Mississippi however have increased raising the SHIP to 1.0, indicating hail could be problematic. However, the shear profiles and bulk shear values remain lackluster. This indicates that storms will struggle to develop a strong, healthy updraft on their own. A storm will have to generally be riding right along the boundary for any sort of threat to emerge. This is a high CAPE, low shear severe weather day with damaging winds being the primary concern. Instability will continue to climb higher into the afternoon hours aided by peak heating, but by that point the front should be across most of the northern half of the CWA. Severe weather timing seems to be around 1p-7p as the front should clear the area tomorrow evening.

After that, surface high pressure and northwest flow will lead the way through the work week. The northwest flow will help keep temperatures a few degrees below normal for mid May. Mid range models suggest another weak cold front taking aim for midweek, but due to the strength of the surface high pressure, very little if any rain is expected out of that passage. Upper level ridging will build in quickly behind the midweek FROPA and continue to keep us warm and dry through the week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

LIFR visibilities will continue at TUP for at least another couple of hours, then improve to VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along a cold front this afternoon. Confidence remains low on coverage and will continue the PROB30 for the 12Z TAF set.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Wetting rainfall returns Sunday and will provide beneficial moisture to drought-stricken areas. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent each day next week as a warm and dry summertime-like pattern emerges.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ004>006- 009-012>017-020>024.

TN...None.