textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather overnight Sunday into Monday morning with a continued Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) through the daytime Monday. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances will continue through at least the first half of next week, with high temperatures remaining in the mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The tale of two areas is currently denoted across the Mid-South, with cloudy, wet conditions generally to the south and dry, sunny conditions to the north. The stationary boundary from this morning has finally begun to lift back through the Mid-South, although precipitation coverage has remained generally south of I- 22. While coverage may spread a bit further north to the TN/MS line through the daytime, think any coverage beyond that point will remain isolated. As this front continues to lift northward, we will need to keep an eye on any flooding potential across north MS. PWAT values through the area are pushing around 2", with about 500 to 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE. If convection increases, this would increase the flooding potential for these areas through the afternoon with some periods of heavier rainfall. By sunset, coverage will begin to wane with the potential for some patchy fog development overnight mainly across north Mississippi.

Into Sunday, the warm front will be to our north with a summer- like day expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with heat index values approaching 100 for most of the area. Some afternoon convection can't be ruled out, but the better thunderstorm chances will not be until late Sunday into Monday. Through the day on Sunday, a series of MCS will be going through the plains with a system pushing down towards the Mid-South by late Sunday evening. There is still some variability in the CAM guidance with respect to timing, with some guidance suggesting two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms while others maintain one line through the entire area. If the two rounds were to play out, it would likely manifest as a chance from midnight through around sunrise on Monday north of I-40, with a secondary resurgence across north MS Monday afternoon and evening. If the one round plays out, the severe weather threat would largely be over by the late afternoon hours Monday. Given recent history and how these types of events typically play out, lean more in favor of the two round scenario, but this will be something to watch as additional runs come into range. As far as threats go, damaging wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall will be the main concerns with this system. Generally 1" to 2" of rainfall is expected, but some higher amounts cannot be ruled out. Depending where the heaviest rainfall occurs, some localized flash flooding could become an issue especially on Monday.

By Tuesday, subtle northwesterly flow aloft will keep the Mid- South in an unsettled weather pattern through at least the middle if not end of next work week. The majority of guidance do have some weak disturbances coming out of the plains to the area, accompanied by daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Each of these will likely carry at least a low-end threat for some stronger thunderstorms, although any additional specifics will be limited until CAMs come into range. The earliest potential break from this pattern could come towards the end of next week, but there is still enough uncertainty that confidence is low. Otherwise, high temperatures will generally remain in the 80s throughout next week, with daily fluctuations depending on afternoon thunderstorm coverage.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A warm front extends northwest to southeast from south of Jonesboro, AR to near Savannah, TN. Isolated convection continues south of the boundary as it lifts north, though coverage should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. South winds increase after 15z tomorrow to 10-12 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. A low chance (<30%) of showers exists near KTUP tomorrow due to warm advection. Precipitation chances increase after 00z Monday, primarily for KJBR and KMEM, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain over 40% with a typical, humid summertime pattern. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will exist through the end of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.