textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- A cold front will stall south of the region with dry weather returning to northern parts of the Mid-South on Friday, and chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi.

- A warm front will lift north through the area on Saturday, spreading chances for showers and thunderstorms northward.

- A couple of upper-level disturbances and an approaching cold front will result in higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The remnants of Arthur have quickly moved east and out of the picture. Meanwhile, a cold front was pushing across the Mid-South this evening and was located roughly just south of I-40 at 10 pm. Shower and thunderstorm activity along the front has simmered down with the loss of heating. The front will continue to sag slowly south overnight, and an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out. Patchy dense fog will continue to develop across eastern sections of the Mid-South. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed later tonight.

The front will continue to sag south toward the I-20 corridor Friday and Friday evening. This will allow some drier air to work into the northern half of the Mid-South, where dewpoints will fall into the 60s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi due to the proximity of the surface front. A strong pulse storm with gusty winds is not out of the question, given SBCAPEs around 1500 J/kg.

The stalled front will lift north as a warm front Saturday and Saturday night, and humidity levels will creep back up. There is not much upper-level support to sustain storms during this time period, so we will mainly rely on heating to trigger development. Sunday and Monday look more active as a cold front moves into the region, and a couple of upper-level disturbances moving through stronger mid-level flow help to trigger more showers and storms. LREF joint probabilities point to some risk of severe storms during this period, though the details are still to be worked out. Localized heavy rain could also occur as precipitable water values climb back towards 2 inches.

By the middle of next week, the cold front stalls along the I- 20 corridor with the best chances for showers and storms confined to east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi. Temperatures through the next 7 days will mainly be in the 80s, which is slightly below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Low stratus at MEM and MKL will improve to VFR conditions over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Confidence remains low for showers and thunderstorms affecting TAF sites, particularly TUP through the 12Z TAF cycle as activity may remain just south over central MS. N winds between 6-10 kts will become light by this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as an unsettled weather pattern continues. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast through at least early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.