textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s.

- A 20 to 60 percent chance for light showers will return Monday through Tuesday evening as a warm front lifts north.

- Mild conditions will persist through Friday, but the timing and impacts of a cold front next weekend remain unclear.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The latest surface analysis places a cold front along the Gulf Coast this evening with an expansive 1036mb high over the eastern CONUS. The latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB reveals low and mid level stratus creeping well north of the boundary, aided by weak warm advection at 850 mb. Aloft, weak northwest flow remains prevalent across the entire Mississippi Valley.

The cold front will begin to lift north as a warm front on Monday. Significant low level moisture advection will create low stratus and drizzle along with scattered showers by mid afternoon. Temperatures behind the boundary will rise into the low to mid 60s. The front will lift north of the region by late Monday night with continued light showers and drizzle through Tuesday as a couple of weak shortwaves ripple through northwest flow aloft.

The big story for the holiday week is not snow, but unseasonably warm air blanketing the region. A 588 dam upper level ridge will build into the Mid-South Tuesday through Friday with temperatures soaring into the low to mid 70s, or about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Christmas day will feel more like late September rather than late December.

Model guidance (LREF) is in high agreement with a cold front moving into the region this weekend. A large trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains and helps push an Arctic front down into the Ohio Valley. However, the degree as to how dry and cold the airmass will be remains a point of divergence in the ensembles. Nonetheless, the forecast will favor the return of rainfall and a cooling trend back toward seasonal norms (highs in the 50s) by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR will continue through at least the first 6 hours of the TAF period with CIGs hovering around 3.5 to 4 kft. A warm front will lift north through 18z Monday, bringing enough moisture to allow MVFR CIGs to enter the region by mid to late morning. Continued moisture advection will then bring chances for drizzle Monday afternoon through the end of the period. Both the HREF and NBM have IFR occurring at all sites by 00z Tuesday, with the potential for LIFR conditions at MEM/MKL thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

A 20% to 60% chance of wetting rain will return Monday into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very low all next week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system remains over the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.