textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by power outages.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days. Subfreezing temperatures will continue for many locations through next weekend, which will not help melt any snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Significant reports of ice continue to funnel into our office today, as several counties in north central and northeast Mississippi are either completely without power and/or severely interrupted public communications. Ice accumulations of one inch have been reported from Oxford, MS northeast through New Albany, MS and into Savannah, TN. Impacts from this amount of significant ice will continue this week as temperatures remain near freezing during the day and well below freezing at night.

Abundant sunshine across the Mid-South has resulted in a clear visible satellite image of the snow and sleet across the region (presented in white). Snow/sleet mainly is analyzed from the Mississippi Delta all the way up into northwest Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel.

The latest surface analysis places a strong and expansive 1041mb high over north central Texas. Temperatures range from the middle teens to around 20 degrees under abundant sunshine. North winds remain moderate between 10 and 12 mph, with wind chill temperatures ranging from 0 to 10 F at this hour. The primary forecast focus tonight through this weekend will be on low and high temperatures each day.

The aforementioned surface high will slide to the south and east of the Mid-South on through Tuesday afternoon. This will result in winds shifting around to the southwest late tonight and will keep temperatures from dropping too much. Nonetheless, minimum temperatures will fall into the single digits for most, with negative readings mainly across northwest Tennessee. Apparent temperatures will dip down to as low as -15F north of I-40 with single digits readings to the south of I-40. The Extreme Cold Warning is in reasonably good shape with an end time of noon on Tuesday.

With abundant sunshine again on Tuesday, this will help to melt some of the residual ice and sleet across the region. However, the degree of melting still remains uncertain. NBM temperatures vary widely on Tuesday, with as much as a 10F spread. This is the difference between locations along and north of I-40 climbing above freezing or remaining below freezing. After close collaboration with surrounding offices and the amount of sleet, snow, and ice on the ground, we decided to go with NBM50 guidance. This results in all locations along and north of I-40 staying at or below freezing, with mid to upper 30s to the south. Hi-res models are picking up on the potential for some freezing fog Wednesday morning as higher dewpoints advecting into the region during the day on Wednesday. Currently, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of dense freezing fog Wednesday morning.

A persistence forecast for high temperatures is in place for Wednesday, with the freezing line holding close along the I- 40 corridor. Morning fog and additional cloud cover will likely reduce some of the melting. Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the week, as weak warm air advection occurs ahead of an organizing surface low near the ArkLaTex.

The surface low will take a southeast track towards the Gulf Coast Thursday and help push another Arctic cold front through the region early in the morning on Friday. There is medium confidence that cold weather products will be needed for at least portions of the Mid-South on both Friday and Saturday mornings. This reinforcing cold shot will keep any residual ice and snow impacts ongoing through at least this weekend. LREF guidance suggests that we will stay in broad troughing and below normal temperatures through at least early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Arctic high pressure is infiltrating the airspace this afternoon, leading to VFR conditions at all sites. Main impact is elevated winds around 10 kts both today (northwesterly) and tomorrow (southwesterly) as the surface high meanders. Winds should be light and variable for the most part overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially Tuesday morning. There is a low to medium chance of freezing fog Wednesday morning. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.