textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley early Thursday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall across parts of north Mississippi Thursday and Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, level 1 of 5, across all of the Mid-South on Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging wind is the primary concern.

- The wet weather pattern will persist into early next week with temperatures generally slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The Mid-South sits between Tropical Storm Arthur and a cold front to the north. Skies are mostly clear, and the airmass is much more humid than 24 hours ago, with dewpoints in the mid 70s areawide. The remnants of TS Arthur will track into southern Mississippi Thursday morning and then into Alabama by afternoon.

Tropical moisture will surge north into the Mid-South with precipitable water values reaching over 2 inches across northeast Mississippi. Meanwhile, the cold front to the north will press southward into the area on Thursday. Most of the rainfall associated with the remnants of TS Arthur will fall on Thursday and remain south of I-40, mainly across northeast Mississippi. Arthur's remnants will produce peripheral subsidence, evidenced by 700 mb warming and suppressed convection on recent CAMs. By afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the cold front near the I-40 corridor and sag southward. The parameter space is quite marginal with decent instability but very weak shear until the early evening. By the time the stronger shear arrives, the loss of surface heating occurs. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Thursday and Thursday night, with damaging winds being the main threat. The front will stall over north Mississippi on Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing along with a strong storm or two.

Rainfall amounts continue to trend downward, with 1-2 inches expected across northeast Mississippi with locally higher amounts through Friday. Outside of northeast Mississippi, expect generally less than one inch, though any organized storms could produce locally higher amounts with this very moist airmass. Given the precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches, rainfall rates may be intense enough to pose a localized flooding risk, particularly in northeast Mississippi.

The stalled front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday with chances for showers and storms continuing through the weekend. Activity on Saturday should be mostly modulated by daytime heating, while an upper-level disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley will likely drive more coverage on Sunday and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. A cold front will follow early next week, continuing the unsettled weather. That front will likely stall across the southern parts of the Mid-South, keeping rain chances going into the middle of next week. Precipitable water values will remain elevated into early next week, so any storms may feature locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will generally be in the 80s through the middle of next week, which is near or just a bit below normal. Over the next week, drier air may occasionally work into northern areas of the Mid-South behind each of these cold fronts, but for the most part, humidity levels will remain elevated.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Rain chances will increase over the next several hours as two disturbances move towards the Mid-South. Precise timing and location of precipitation remains hard to pinpoint, but enough confidence exists to include PROB30 TSRA groups at all sites. The greatest TS coverage will occur in the afternoon hours. In addition, MVFR CIGs will develop around sunrise with potential IFR at TUP. By Thursday evening, ceilings will return to VFR. An eventual wind shift is anticipated in the late afternoon and early evening as a front slowly pushes through the airspace.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

There are no fire weather concerns expected across the Mid-South through the weekend due to recent wetting rains and increasing low-level humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return areawide on Thursday, continuing through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.