textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for both today and tomorrow. Heat indices will peak between 105 and 108 F. Those without access to adequate cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable.

- High heat will continue to ramp up into early next week with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Heat advisories and potential Extreme Heat Warnings are anticipated both Monday and Tuesday.

- Many areas will see dry conditions next week; however, isolated afternoon showers and storms can not be ruled out each day as peak daytime heating occurs.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Rinse and repeat forecast as a subtropical ridge continues to broaden over the southern Gulf and the Texas and Louisiana coastline while a tropical disturbance continues to churn near the Florida peninsula. These two systems have placed us, here in the Mid-South, under upper-level quasi northwest flow. The airmass remains very moist with current PWATs in the 1.8-2.0" range with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon highs will also increase into the mid 90s across much of the area. As such heat indices in areas west of the Mississippi River and into the Delta region are most likely to reach values of 105+ F and remain under a Heat Advisory. With residual moisture and peak heating this afternoon, a few pop-up showers and storms, mainly along the Tennessee River are anticipated. Effective shear remains next to nothing with SB and MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, low-level lapse rates around 7.3 C/km, and DCAPE around 600, in these areas. Gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out this afternoon, though the parameter space will likely not be able to sustain much upscale growth.

By this evening, upper-level northwest flow will become more defined as the aforementioned ridge and upper-low continue to build and move. A few embedded shortwaves could promote enough lift for a few pop up showers and storms this evening over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Tomorrow will be a near persistence forecast, just warmer. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for areas along and west of the Mississippi River at 10AM through 9PM tomorrow. One thing to note about tomorrow: NBM is painting heat indices 105+ F across nearly the entire Mid- South, however, as northwest flow becomes more defined and PWATs remain slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of the year, 1.8-2.2", many areas will likely fall just short of 105+ F. Either way, our entire area will be hot and humid tomorrow and time outdoors should be limited. Tomorrow afternoon will also see pop-up showers and storms with peak heating and a few embedded shortwave perturbations. Very similar to today, gusty winds and small hail may be found in stronger thunderstorms.

Monday and Tuesday will be more of a slam dunk for heat indices in excess of 105F as the aforementioned subtropical ridge broadens over the central High Plains and slightly east, closer to our area. Some counties, especially in the Delta region could see heat indices in excess of 109 F, potentially warranting an Extreme Heat Warning come Monday, though NBM might be once again overdoing dewpoints as HeatRisk is only pinging on around 20-25% of extreme heat levels. Tuesday will be our warmest of the next 7 days as the ridge continues to build further east into the Mississippi Valley and a decent swath of warm air advection moves over the Mid-South. Areas west of the Mississippi River and in the Delta regions may warrant an Extreme Heat Warning as highs soar into the upper 90s across nearly the entire Mid-South. Moisture and afternoon pop-up showers and storms will likely inhibit areas east from reaching indices in excess of 109F.

Come mid-week, ensembles continue to hint that an upper-low will begin pushing south from Ontario over the northeast with a dry cold front pushing southeast across the Mid-South. Though, the ENS still wants to keep the aforementioned ridge slightly east into the Mississippi Valley and the aforementioned low pressure further north, keeping temperatures in the mid 90s for Wednesday and into the weekend. Confidence is higher in the cooler evolution decreasing highs into the lower 90s and potential upper 80s with heat indices closer to 100F. Forecast PWATs remain slightly above the 75th percentile over the next 7 days, therefore, isolated afternoon showers and storms, mainly confined to areas along the Tennessee River, will remain.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions continue across the terminals. Low probabilities and confidence of showers and thunderstorms do not warrant TAF inclusion. Shower chances appear marginally higher as a few showers may rotate around the ridge after 00z. Confidence is overall low, but higher at JBR than MKL. A VCSH was added for JBR, and we will continue to monitor trends for future cycles.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>003-019- 020-048>051-088-089.