textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, capable of heavy downpours will persist daily through the weekend, posing a threat of localized flash flooding.

- A cold front will bring an end to the muggy conditions and lead to pleasant, drier afternoons starting early next week (as early as Tuesday).

- Near-normal temperatures will continue, with highs trending in the mid-80s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Once again, we have a rapidly diminishing swath of convection on radar as of midnight Thursday night. Through the overnight hours, CAMs really struggle to resolve anything of substance until about 5AM. Even then, it will be much of the same story we've seen over the last several days with slow-moving thunderstorms capable of heavy downpours. Deep moisture is in place across the region due to prolonged southerly flow, leading to PWATs close to the 99th percentile near 2 inches. We do not expect a significant flooding event to unfold either overnight or during the day Friday, but localized storms may produce some nuisance flooding under heavy rainfall rates.

Once again, given the lack of synoptic features, wind speeds will be quite low overnight. In conjunction with an exceedingly moist airmass, there is a low to medium (10-30%) chance of some patchy fog development early Friday morning, especially in the MS Delta where most of the moisture resides. Patchy fog is almost a given for at least the next couple mornings considering the persistence forecast we have been in this week. Saturday morning is already looking like a better setup for some more dense fog. HREF probabilities are already pinging around a 50% chance of quarter- mile visibilities overnight Friday into Saturday.

Essentially a rinse and repeat forecast is on deck Friday afternoon. The same messy surface pattern will evolve across the southeastern CONUS, giving way to showers and thunderstorms rotating about a weak surface low during peak heating. Again, there is little to no shear available to support any upscale growth. These will be mainly single celled thunderstorms reminiscent of summertime convection. As such, locally heavy rainfall in individual storms is going to be a factor pretty much through Sunday. With the isolated nature of this convection, most areas will not see any rain, but the ones that do could see an inch or so of rain in a given afternoon. This same wet pattern will be in place through at least the end of the weekend with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours.

The pattern finally starts to shift next week. Per the LREF, a large omega block is forecast to emerge over the Four Corners after a few days of shifting around. This will keep the eastern troughing centered right over the Mid-South, allowing us to stay in this cooler pattern. Little to no moisture advection from the Plains will also help curb humidity values to pleasant thresholds for early summer. However, residual moisture from the preceding airmass will take a while to disperse, so sporadic 20% PoPs are still in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Things finally start to dry out completely by midweek as the upper level pattern becomes a little more zonal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Convection is ongoing across the airspace as an upper level shortwave rotates across MS. A surface low and stationary boundary were just north of MEM at the top of the hour. This is anticipated to wobble south through the day and spark redevelopment aided by peak heating this afternoon. Coverage is anticipated to be isolated to scattered, which could cause storms to miss the terminals completely. So opted to keep PROB30s for uncertainty. That boundary will linger close to the terminals tonight and bring MVFR/IFR ceilings back to the area.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into early next week, with continued showers and thunderstorms maintaining high fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a dry cold front moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.