textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat will continue through at least next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indices up to 109 degrees.

- Largely dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South over at least the next seven days. Overall drought conditions are expected to worsen in the coming weeks with this prolonged hot and dry period.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Welcome to the long, holiday weekend featuring well above-normal temperatures and persistently dry conditions for much of the Mid- South. Temperatures have already risen into the mid to upper 90s by midday, with a few locations exceeding 100 degrees already. Heat Index values have already climbed over 105 for many as well. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 90s to low 100s across the area both today and tomorrow, which for those keeping track is around 10 degrees above normal. With the dangerous heat continuing, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of the Mid-South through 8 PM Sunday. With this in mind, an argument could be made that a few locations may not reach 105 degrees tomorrow, mainly along the TN River. The uncertainty along the TN River generally exists due to a back door frontal boundary that will be moving through the area. However, the timing of this is still somewhat uncertain and how quickly the "cooler" air will be able to filter in behind. As such, opted to leave the areawide Heat Advisory in place for now. Outside of this, there is a low chance (generally < 20%) of diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms both this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon mainly across north MS. Unfortunately, this will likely provide little relief to the ongoing, oppressive heat.

Into Monday, a back door frontal boundary will have cleared the area, allowing temperatures to fall back a few degrees. While this will lead to conditions drying out further, an upper-level ridge across the region will keep temperatures well above-normal for early to mid September. As such, no measurable precipitation is in the forecast through at least the middle of the week, with high temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 90s. With the dry conditions, heat index values will likely top out just below 105 for most of the area outside of the Delta region. While heat index values may approach to exceed 105 degrees for the Delta, confidence remains generally low and any heat headlines will be handled on a day to day basis if needed.

By the middle to end of next week, this upper-level ridge will finally begin to break down, potentially allowing for a small pattern shift. LREF guidance currently shows spread amongst members growing particularly by the end of next week, so general forecast confidence is low. However, even with the spread amongst members, guidance does keep the Mid-South in a generally above- normal temperature pattern as we head into next weekend. So, while PoP chances may return by the end of next week, the heat is certainly here to stay unfortunately.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period as high pressure persists. Pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon near TUP and MEM, but overall confidence in this occurring is too low for TAF mention. Overnight, a weak frontal boundary will impact the airspace, allowing winds to become more northerly by midday Sunday.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

There is a low risk for fire danger concerns through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity levels will generally remain in the upper 30% to 40% range, with some locations approaching 30% on Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but wetting rain is not expected. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through the period. There is a low chance for some patchy fog overnight tonight, mainly for locations east of the Mississippi River.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.