textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms continues into early Wednesday morning mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Damaging winds are the primary hazards, along with urban flash flooding. There is a low chance of a brief tornado along and south of the front into portions of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) is in place for southeast Arkansas and most of north Mississippi Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding will be primary severe weather threats. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cold front currently extends from a 1007mb surface low near Pittsburgh southwest back through Murray, Kentucky and back into Harrisburg, Arkansas. The latest radar scan shows elevated convection north of the front with a few showers out ahead of the front along the I-40 corridor. A 700mb cap has kept convection at bay thus far this evening and storms have failed to initiate along the cold front. Aloft, GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows broad southwesterly flow with a pronounced shortwave over north central Texas. Height falls have been nearly non-existent across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The parameter space is dominated by very high shear on the order of 70 knots of bulk shear and SRH values in the 0 to 1 km space of 400 m2/s2. Instability remains on the low end across much of the region with MLCAPE values of 500 J/kg focused along and west of the Mississippi River. If any storms can become surface-based in the next couple of hours and along or south of the front, the primary threats would be damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. Lapse rates aloft remain limited around 6.5 C/km, thus the hail threat would be marginal at best.

Hi-res guidance remains focused on the cold front stalling out near the TN/MS border by Wednesday sunup. The main trough, currently over the Four Corners Region, will sweep across the Southern Plains and bring appreciative height falls to the Lower Mississippi Valley steepening lapse rates aloft. Areas south of the front will destabilize by mid afternoon but uncertainty remains with respect to where the outflow modified cold front will be situated. Bulk shear will remain plentiful across the region, but instability remains in question. HREF guidance suggests that the 500 SBCAPE may develop over portions of northeast Mississippi, but probabilities remain meager with only a 25% chance at Tupelo with a tight gradient of increasing probs down into Monroe County, MS. Nonetheless, the Slight Risk appears to be well drawn to account for the uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment Wednesday afternoon.

The main threat on Wednesday still appears to be the flooding potential as PWATs remain elevated at 1.7 inches, or near the 90th percentile for this time of year. The slow, southward progress of the front this afternoon, combined with 850mb flow nearly parallel to the boundary, suggests a medium to high potential for training thunderstorms.The HREF supports this theory with 24 hour LPMM totals showing a swath of 2.5 to 4.5 inches of QPF setting up just to the south of the I- 40 corridor and extending into the first two rows of north Mississippi counties. The front will finally clear the area around midnight tomorrow night ending the threat of heavy rainfall across the region.

Broad surface high pressure will build into the region through Friday morning with temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Low temperatures will dip into the 40s nearly areawide Friday morning. High pressure will slide east late Friday and return flow will set up over the region. Rain chances will return on Sunday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes Region noses equatorward and helps push a cold front through the region.

AC3

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Widespread overnight showers and thunderstorms have cleared all TAF sites as a cold front is located near central Mississippi. Convective coverage will be scattered at MEM, MKL, and JBR and have continued PROB30 mention with lower confidence in coverage expected. Confidence is low to moderate for thunderstorms at TUP into this afternoon where slightly better instability is anticipated. IFR/MVFR conditions will be slow to improve to VFR conditions until this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next 7 days. Humidity and widespread wetting rain chances will occur again on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the entire Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday and Friday. There is a low to medium chance that minimum relative humidity values dip below 40% on Friday. Wetting rain chances will return Sunday with another cold front.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.