textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Cooler air arrives tonight, with high temperatures only reaching into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- A warming trend will bring highs back into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday with rain chances returning by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A cold front has moved well south of the region, and that feature will stall along the I-20 corridor for the next few days. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the Mid-South with some very pleasant weather over the next couple of days. A few showers are not out of the question across the southern part of the area, thanks to that stalled front to the south. These showers would mainly occur south of a Clarksdale to Tupelo line.

Northerly winds will bring drier air into the Mid-South for Monday, with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and highs only near 80. Dry air and partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s and lower 60s by Tuesday morning. As the weak high pressure shifts eastward, temperatures will climb back toward normal along with increasing humidity by mid-week. A weak upper- level disturbance could bring a few showers along the KY/MO border late Tuesday.

A potential tropical disturbance may develop over the northeast Gulf this week, and toward the end of the week, the westerlies are lifting this feature northeast into the Mid-South. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the region with the potential for locally heavy rain. A cold front will quickly follow this disturbance, perhaps increasing the chances for at least a good start to next weekend weatherwise with mild temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the entire period at all four terminals. Scattered high clouds and isolated Cu are expected through this afternoon with light north to northeast winds. Winds are forecast to drop to calm after 00z through the end of the period. MVFR/IFR CIGs will exist across central Mississippi during the last 12 hours of the period, but are not anticipated to impact either MEM or TUP within this period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Recent wetting rains and elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will return by the end of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.