textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Midsummer-like heat will return to the Midsouth on Sunday and will persist into at least the middle of next week.

- Temperatures will likely moderate by next weekend, with high temperatures cooling to near normal, or just a few degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed a compact deep upper trough moving through the Midsouth. A shortwave trough was evident over the western Ozarks, moving southeast behind the upper trough axis. Attendant thunderstorms will likely continue southeast across AR today, possibly following current convection over the delta, southwest of Memphis. 12Z CAMs have struggled with convective initiation and placement thus far.

Sunday should be clear of storms, as the upper ridge amplifies behind the exited upper trough. Daytime temperatures will warm into the mid 90s over the MS River delta, with 90s possible over portions of the delta to the south of I-40. Dewpoints will likely mix out to the upper 60s by midafternoon Sunday, but not before heat indices reach 105. A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas along the MS River for Sunday.

Medium range guidance consensus expands the upper ridge over the Midsouth on Monday, amplifying 500mb heights to 595dam. The ridge further amplifies to 599dam Tuesday and Wednesday. This is impressively strong for mid-September. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will reach or exceed 100 degrees in places. Unlike last week, the NBM appears to be handling dewpoints better, with daytime mixing dropping dewpoints into the upper 60s after Sunday. These moderate dewpoints should keep most of the Midsouth out of Extreme Heat Warning criteria, but Heat Advisories will be needed through at least midweek.

GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean 500mb heights continue to depict the upper ridge retrograding to the desert southwest by next weekend, resulting in west/northwest flow aloft over the Midsouth. The respective deterministic runs of these models depict an easterly wave over the northern Gulf late next week, which comes ashore over the weekend. Concurrently, a northern branch upper trough drops into the mid-MS River Valley, entraining tropical moisture from the remnant tropical wave. It is too early to place confidence in this scenario, but should it verify, the net result for the Midsouth would be temperatures moderating to near normal by late next weekend or early the following week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

TSRA over west central AR should track southeast this afternoon. Should it persist into the evening, it would likely pass to the SW of MEM, outside of the 25 mile VC ring. TUP will have an outside chance of TSRA this afternoon.

Skies will mostly clear overnight. Light winds and clearing skies will lead to a MVFR/IFR VIS potential at MKL and TUP. No significant aviation weather expected Sunday, as upper level ridging begins to build back in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

There will be a potential for fog tonight, particularly over northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. Hot and dry conditions will return to the Midsouth from Sunday, with temperatures reaching the 100 degrees in places Monday through Wednesday. The heat will be accompanied by light 20 foot winds and minimum relative humidity falling below 40 percent. Temperatures and daytime relative humidity will moderate by next weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ048-049-088.