textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1037 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon into this evening, and a few storms south of a Tupelo to Clarksdale line could be severe.

- Dry and warm conditions return Friday and will last through Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Unsettled weather will return early next week as a front stalls across the region with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1037 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A weak cold front is moving slowly through the Mid-South this morning. At 10 am the front stretched roughly along the TN/MS border into east-central Arkansas. The initial shortwave is pushing into Middle TN and Alabama, along with most of the shower and thunderstorm activity. Overall, it is fairly quiet across the Mid-South at this time. Cooler temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s, along with some patchy fog can be found north of the front with mild and warm conditions to the south across north MS.

The main concern today is severe storm development across parts of north MS. The front will continue to sag south through the day. Some partial clearing in the vicinity of the front will lead to a decent amount of destabilization this afternoon. The 12Z HREF mean SBCAPES , though the extent of which is in question. The 12z CAMs show a varying degree of surface-based instability ranging from 500 to 1500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be quite steep at 7+ C/km and deep-layer shear will be fairly strong at about 50 kts. Meanwhile, the next shortwave will be moving through the Red River Valley with lift overspreading the frontal zone as the right entrance region of the upper jet approaches. This should help kick off a few storms along the slow-moving front. There is a chance these storms could be severe with large hail the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. The main threat area is south of a Tupelo to Clarksdale line with a timing window of 3 pm to 9 pm.

Precipitation chances will wind down across north MS by midnight as weak high pressure builds in. Light winds and clearing skies will likely lead to fog development across the area, especially across northern sections. Friday and Saturday will be mostly sunny and warm. Lows will start in the 40s both days and warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Friday and the lower to mid 70s on Saturday. Winds will be light both days as well.

The pattern turns unsettled Sunday into next week. A cold front will push south into the region on Sunday with a chance of showers returning mainly over western and northern sections of the Mid-South. This front will likely stall over the area through Monday or Tuesday and then lift back north as a warm front by Wednesday as an upper-low moves out of the Southwest US. Higher precip chances will tend to be across northern sections of the Mid-South through the period, though it will be highly dependent on the location of the front and the disturbances moving through the zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will generally be above normal through the period. Temperatures during the Sunday-Tuesday period will be highly dependent on the location of the front. Locations to the north of the front will likely be cool with readings in the 50s. South of the front will be very warm with highs in the 70s. Once the front moves north of the region by midweek, everyone will be warm with highs into the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A cold front will move across all sites through late afternoon. Initially, a mix of conditions will exist but will transition to mainly MVFR with bouts of IFR CIGs this morning. -SHRAs will be confined to MEM, MKL, and TUP through late morning. There is high confidence that -SHRAs will persist near TUP through this evening with a low to medium (20-40%) chance of TSRA.

CIGs will improve to VFR at JBR, MEM, and MKL behind the front by late afternoon. Lingering -SHRAs and -TSRAs near TUP will keep mainly MVFR/IFR CIGs through late tonight. There is a low to medium chance (30-50%) of dense fog development at MEM, MKL, and TUP as winds go light under clear skies overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1037 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Conditions will dry out by Saturday with minimum relative humidity values falling below 40%. However, recent rains and generally light winds in the driest locations will limit any fire danger concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.