textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist through the weekend, with little rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Wednesday. Expect heat indices to reach up to 109 degrees for some locations.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A large upper ridge over the southern U.S. will intensify to 600 dam by tomorrow and very slowly retrograde westward over the next several days. Near record to record high temperatures will continue through the weekend. Heat Advisories remain in place for the entire Mid-South through 7 pm Wednesday and may need to be extended later in the week. A surface ridge stretching into the southeastern U.S. will result in light southeasterly flow, which will advect in slightly lower dewpoints. However, surface temperatures will likely climb a little higher due to the drier airmass. Either way, it is going to be very hot. The prolonged nature of this heat wave compounds the risk. Remember your heat safety rules and be sure to check on the elderly, children, and pets. The strength of the upper ridge will limit the areal coverage of any convection over the next few days

Each day, the models are delaying the weakening of the upper ridge. The latest model runs are less aggressive with moving the upper low from the Atlantic/Gulf into the Mid-South early next week. Meanwhile, the models are also keeping any trough approaching the region from the west much further to our north. A cold front may push through early next week with a little rain and a break from the record heat, but it looks pretty weak given the lack of upper support and strength of the upper ridge. The upper ridge will likely re-strengthen over the region as next week progresses. Overall, expect mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures to persist well into next week, and according to the medium range ensembles, probably longer than that.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Southerly winds 5 kts or less will persist through the overnight hours. Winds will edge up during the daylight hours, but should remain below 10 kts. Anticipating a diurnal cu field at or above 5,000ft tomorrow afternoon that could aid in isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Confidence in location and timing is too low to include at this time.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, and minimum relative humidity values will remain in the 30 to 40% range through Friday. Wind speeds will generally remain below 10 mph through Friday as well. No fog is expected overnight.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.