textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Benign weather will persist through the weekend.

- A warming trend will continue, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by this weekend and into next week.

- The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Another warm and calm overnight period is on tap across the Mid- South with mostly clear skies and predominantly calm winds at the surface. Surface high pressure, currently centered over the Carolina coasts, will continue to dominate the weather pattern. This will keep mild humidity values and dry air in place through at least early Sunday. Friday, a cold front will dip south, just north of the Tennessee and Kentucky stateline. Due to quasi-zonal flow aloft, very little lift will support precipitation here in the Mid-South, however, a few light showers in the afternoon cannot be ruled out over the Missouri Bootheel and far northeast Arkansas where chances are generally <25%. By late Friday evening, this front will lift back north, as broad upper-level ridging begins to build in from the southwestern CONUS. A warming trend will continue with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid 80s by Saturday and into Sunday. Though chilly mornings, with lows in the 50s and lower 60s, will continue through this same period as a dry airmass remains in place.

By Sunday morning, the weather pattern begins to transition and becomes more unsettled as the aforementioned ridge begins to build over the Gulf States and southwest flow, greatly influenced by a closed low pushing over California, begins to build over the Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances (30-45%) will begin to increase late Sunday and into Monday mainly north of I- 40. With increased moisture and a pattern shift, humidities will begin to increase as well as gusty southerly winds returning across the Mid-South for early week. We will also begin flirting with potential record high temperatures by Tuesday as gusty winds and persistent southwest flow usher in warmer air. Ensembles are in decent agreement with moisture being cut off for Tuesday as the mid-level troughing pushes into the western Plains from the western CONUS and the aforementioned ridge briefly retreats closer to the Mid-South.

Come early Wednesday, an embedded surface low materializes over the central Plains with an attendant cold front. Ahead of this front, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase with help from increased dewpoints and a few embedded shortwaves. Digging into the parameter space, LREF joint probabilities indicate around a 30-40% chance for SBCAPE >500 J/kg and >30kts of 0-6km bulk shear with forecast PWAT values around 1.5", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. However, ensembles are really struggling on exact timing of the cold front and severe parameters lining up this far out. For now, we know the middle of next week is shaping up to be more active in comparison to this week.

AEH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. -SHRAs will approach JBR this evening along a weak front, but dry air will most likely squash any precip before it reaches the terminal. Otherwise, S/SE winds in the 8 to 10 kt range will prevail through most of the day before going light/variable overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Dry weather will persist through much of the weekend, keeping minimum relative humidity values between 25-30%. 20-ft winds will remain predominantly below 10 mph through Saturday. Marginal fire weather concerns will continue through the weekend due to dry air remaining in place.

There is medium to high confidence that elevated fire weather danger will develop on Sunday due to the combination of dry fuels, low to mid 80 temperatures, min RH <= 30%, and 20 foot winds in the 10 to 15 mph range. Fire weather danger will decrease early next week as the weather pattern becomes wet and unsettled.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.