textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 656 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Dangerous heat will continue this week with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees each day through Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect area wide through Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast through the remainder of the week, with rain chances mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range. However, there is a marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon hours, with damaging winds being the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The anomalous subtropical ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS will continue to bring oppressive heat to the Mid-South through the next week. Geopotential heights over the Ohio Valley at 500 mb are near 597 dam, which is in roughly the 99.5th percentile of climatology. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. This heat, combined with the increasing humidity, will sustain dangerous conditions across the Mid-South through at least the end of the work week. Heat indices each afternoon are expected to reach or exceed 105F pretty much area wide, with some areas, especially east of the Mississippi River, potentially pushing 110F.

NBMv5 has shown a warm bias on both afternoon temperatures and dewpoints recently. These values were knocked down by several degrees today, and also slightly on Thursday. Deeper moisture may limit how much dewpoints are mixed out this afternoon (see Tuesday's upper 60s dewpoint at Memphis), but the higher heat capacity of the air will also require more energy to warm. Only one ASOS site reached a heat index of 105F on Tuesday. Numerous AWOS sites did, but they tend to overdo the dewpoints (and subsequent heat indices). All that said, I think most areas will settle in with actual heat indices between 105-110F this afternoon, so the Heat Advisory is in great shape. A few areas could briefly top 110F, but they may be somewhat sporadic, both temporarily and spatially.

Dry conditions were observed across the Mid-South on Tuesday, but we'll see an uptick in rain chances for Wednesday afternoon as an area of enhanced low-level moisture advects westward on the southern periphery of the ridge. Precipitable water (PWAT) is forecast to exceed 2.00" by tomorrow afternoon, which is near the 90th percentile for early July. Strong surface heating will support ample buoyancy with SBCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg and little to no cap. The lack of a forcing mechanism will keep coverage limited, but the presence of mid-level dry air and steep low-level lapse rates will favor the development of microbursts with the strongest storms. These storms will remain largely disorganized due to the lack of deep-layer shear, resulting in ordinary (pop-up) cells that generally have short life-cycles and will drift slowly to the west and northwest. However, cold pool consolidation could lead to some enhanced clusters of storms capable of more broad-scale damaging wind. This convection will likely persist into the early evening hours but should diminish within a few hours of sunset. The marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for north Mississippi covers this risk well.

A similar convective setup is expected on Thursday, though more of the CWA will be included in the risk for pop-up, strong to severe thunderstorms. The risk remains marginal with 20-30% PoPs across most of the forecast area. We'll continue with a smattering of low-end PoPs each day through the weekend, with rain chances favoring the afternoon and early evening periods. The ridge becomes more ill-defined by the weekend as a weakness develops over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will spell a slight uptick in PoPs by late weekend and into early next week. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge currently spells only a minor downward trend in the heat and humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Strong upper-level high pressure will maintain VFR conditions and light winds. Scattered TSRA/SHRA are expected to develop near TUP late this afternoon and track east toward MKL and MEM; PROB30 groups have been included for these sites. Confidence is low to medium for MVFR fog at MKL and TUP tonight as winds decouple.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will be limited through the next week. Hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid-South, with minimum relative humidity generally remaining at or above 40% each afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, increasing in coverage Sunday into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.