textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall will continue across the entire Mid-South today and across north Mississippi on Friday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding concerns.

- The wet weather pattern will persist into early next week with temperatures generally slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the Mid-South, with a line of thunderstorms entering from the north with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur spreading light showers generally south of I-40. These two systems will continue to drive our weather pattern for the remainder of the day. With the latest update from SPC, all of the Mid-South has been removed from the Marginal Risk area. Current mesoanalysis shows little to no shear, with about 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE and some CIN present across north MS. SBCAPE values are closer to the 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg range, with some additional CIN creeping through north MS. Mid-level lapse rates are generally above 6.5, but low-level lapse rates remain below 6 across much of the area. With all of these considerations, cannot disagree with the removal and think run of the mill thunderstorms would be all that our area sees for the remainder of the day. Some portions of NE MS have already received about 1-2" of rainfall with storms earlier this morning, but the heaviest rainfall appears to be south of the area. We will have to keep an eye on storms to the north as they descend through the area along the frontal boundary, as PWAT values do remain around 2". If we can get any stronger thunderstorms to develop, and this boundary stalls over an area, the flooding threat for those locations would increase. This will be the main thing to watch as the remainder of the day progresses.

The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to stall across portions of Central MS by Friday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for our far southern tier of counties. Depending on where the boundary stalls, some isolated stronger storms and heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. This boundary will remain stalled over southern portions of the Mid-South before lifting back as a warm front Saturday into Sunday. As such, this will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend. The highest chances will be across north MS to start with higher chances spreading northward through the rest of the area into Sunday and Monday as a shortwave moves through the area. While high temperatures will likely fluctuate with the rain chances, most of the area can expect to see highs remaining in the mid to upper 80s into early next week. Through the rest of the forecast into the middle of next week, generally weak forcing aloft will keep the Mid-South in a somewhat unsettled pattern, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances continuing. NAEFS percentiles do have PWAT values returning to average, which is around 1.5" for the time of year. This will keep a low threat for some heavy rainfall as is typical with summertime convection, but nothing significant stands out outside of that for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A cold front has begun to sink south across the airspace while the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur shift east. Thunder has been very limited over the past few hours near the terminals; expect this trend to continue unless aided by the lift from the approaching cold front. Confidence in thunderstorms remains low overall, so PROB30s were left in place. TUP continues to be dominated by tropical moisture with 2500ft ceilings, with VFR elsewhere. As the low pressure system is forced out of the airspace by the cold front, VFR ceilings should return with a northerly wind.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as an unsettled weather pattern continues. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast through at least early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.