textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact the Mid-South Friday night, posing a damaging wind threat. By midday Saturday, any lingering precipitation will exit the Mid-South.

- Pleasant afternoon temperatures are anticipated through Monday with highs spanning the upper 70s to upper 80s.

- Warming temperatures return by midweek with heat headlines probable by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

As of 9:30 PM Friday, a surface low pressure system continues to push across the Upper Mississippi Valley. An attendant cold front is situated over southeast Missouri, providing enough lift to encourage shower and thunderstorm development. The environment over this area is conducive to upscale storm growth with a nice overlap of thermodynamic and kinematic variables. Most notably, bulk shear is on the rise as a low level jet develops over the region. Storms continue to exhibit severe characteristics with storm tops located at about 53,000 ft. This activity will become more linear in nature over the next hour or so and trek into the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas. Severe weather ingredients in this region are less conducive due to the presence of convective inhibition. At 7:45 PM, an ACARS sounding out of the Memphis International Airport sampled CIN at -109 J/kg. This feature is being modeled well across CAMs, suggesting rapid deintensification of storms as they move into the Mid-South. If storms are able to overcome this cap, damaging winds would be the primary threat. A secondary threat of a spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out due to a veering wind profile near the surface. However, the probability of a tornado occurring is very low. The severe weather threat may transition to heavy rainfall concerns overnight due to precipitable water values near the 99th percentile. The REFS is beginning to pick up on an area of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain falling near Greene and Clay counties in northeast Arkansas overnight. This area will be at the greatest concern for flooding through sunrise Saturday.

Behind the cold front, pleasant conditions will encompass the Mid- South. High temperatures on Saturday will vary from north to south, in the low 80s to low 90s respectively. Northerly winds will persist into Sunday, allowing seasonably cool air to reach into central Mississippi. Sunday will resemble mid September as highs remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Unfortunately, cooler conditions will not last long as upper level ridging builds into the region by Tuesday. At this time, some guidance is developing a cutoff low over the southeast. This feature will keep rain chances near the Tennessee River through Thursday, but the bulk of precipitation will remain over middle and east Tennessee. Otherwise, expect increasing temperatures with highs reaching the mid 90s by the end of the week. At this time, additional heat headlines may be needed. Until then, enjoy the cooler weather.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A line of SHRA/TSRA continues to move in from the northwest, with the highest confidence in any impacts for JBR through about 08Z. Guidance suggests that SHRA/TSRA will be dissipating by the time it reaches MEM/MKL, but uncertainty exists. Left in SHRA for both terminals with PROB30 for TSRA. Some VCSH could make it to TUP between 09Z and 12Z, but again confidence is low. Clearing is expected areawide thereafter, with winds becoming generally westerly and wind speeds picking up to 10 to 15 kts around to after 12Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Fire weather concerns are minimal this period due to increased moisture and light 20 ft winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.