textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Dangerous heat will continue into the holiday weekend, with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect area wide.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The heat continues this Friday as the upper ridge remains over the eastern CONUS, centered over the Appalachians. 590+ dm heights still reside over the Mid-South, but have begun to slacken a tad as the center of the trough shifts east. This movement in the ridge will result in slightly lower high temperatures through today and into the holiday weekend. However, very high humidity will keep heat indices above 105 F through both today and Saturday, warranting the continuation of an area- wide Heat Advisory. The heat forecast on Sunday is a bit more uncertain. The ridge will have weakened to at or below 590 dm, which could lead to heat indices below 105 F. Additionally, some guidance, namely the NAM/REFS, show relatively higher convective coverage Sunday morning and afternoon that would also act to cool the region. For both these reasons confidence is not high enough to warrant an extension to the Heat Advisory quite yet, but NBM guidance still shows the potential for some areas to reach 105 F intermittently through Sunday afternoon, especially in the Mississippi River Delta.

Daily precipitation chances will exist through this weekend and into early next week as the ridge continues to deamplify. Storms will be diurnally driven with little to no upper forcing as PWATs remain above the 90th percentile (~1.8 inches). Within a diurnally mixed environment and such high humidity, afternoon thunderstorms will be primarily capable of damaging winds from isolated microbursts and heavy downpours. Temperatures will still be on the downtrend into early next week with highs, potentially modified from afternoon rains and outflow, drop to around 90 F with heat indices around 100 F. Although these values do not meet the criteria for a Heat Advisory, these temperatures are still hot and will be oppressive and dangerous to those not prepared.

The upper pattern will continue to transition through the middle and end of next week as the upper ridge completely deamplifies into a weak area of troughing over the Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes regions. Shortwave perturbations or areas of stronger flow in the trough could allow for days of higher convective coverage with afternoon instability values likely to climb above 2000 J/kg both Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, afternoon showers and storms are expected to remain in the forecast through the end of the week. From Thursday and into the end of the period and beyond, ensembles are beginning to converge on what looks like a reprieve from the current extended heat wave as we move into next weekend. The upper ridging, or what's left of it anyways, over the southern/central CONUS will retrograde west into the Rockies and amplify, shoving northwesterlies south over the eastern CONUS. The timing of this transition is a bit uncertain, but there is considerably high agreement amongst both ensemble and deterministic guidance on this pattern change occurring. Details on the exact magnitude of any cooling or precipitation associated with upper waves in the flow is yet to be determined this far out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Convective potential at TAF sites has diminished for the remainder of the night. Latest guidance indicates a better potential for showers and thunderstorms during peak heating Saturday at MEM and MKL, supporting the continuance of PROB30 groups. Confidence is low for convective coverage at JBR and TUP on Saturday, and will be monitored closely for later inclusion if needed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through early next week. Wind speeds will remain generally light with minimum relative humidity typically at or above 40 percent each day. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.