textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A cooler and calmer weather day will be in store for the Midsouth on Sunday. Areas mainly along the Tennessee River will see isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances though, overall severe chances will be on the lower end to start the week.

- An unsettled pattern will continue through midweek maintaining risks for additional heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.

- By the latter half of the workweek, temperatures will begin to warm as precipitation chances begin to wane.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

After a pretty active weather day including severe thunderstorms, hot and humid conditions, and prolific rainfall producers we're looking pretty calm heading into the overnight period. The latest KNQA radar sweep indicates a few lingering showers over north Mississippi. Behind Saturday's outflow boundary temperatures have cooled, in comparison to the last several nights, with current temperatures in the 70s. Taking a look at water vapor imagery and 500mb analysis, a trough has dipped down from the Ohio River Valley, clipping our area. A cooler and overall calmer weather day is on tap for Sunday as highs dip largely below 90 degrees as the aforementioned trough begins to slowly migrate east. Muggy conditions will linger, however, as dewpoints remain in the 70s across the Mid-South. Luckily, heat indices are expected to stay 100F and lower.

As far as shower and thunderstorm chances go, areas along and west of the Mississippi River are expected to be mostly dry. Whereas areas east and along the Tennessee River will see isolated to scattered chances due to the placement of the aforementioned trough and a surface low. Convective activity is expected to peak in the afternoon and into early evening hours, as witnessed over the past several days, though, overall severe potential will be greatly lessened as overall instability looks quite meager with effective shear less than 20 kts, lapse rates less than 6.0 C/km, and SBCAPE around 1200 J/kg.

Heading into the workweek, an unsettled weather pattern will remain across the Mid-South through at least midweek as upper- level northeast flow begins to build over the region. Gulf moisture will allow for afternoon isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in areas mainly along the Tennessee River. Forecast PWATs in these areas remain around 1.8-2.0", nearing the 75th percentile for this time of the year, not ruling out localized heavy downpours. Tuesday and into midweek look a little wetter across the Mid-South as the aforementioned surface low looks to migrate west, over north Mississippi, as forecast PWATs begin to increase near 2.3". Heavy downpours could lead to a localized heavy rainfall threat Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heading into the latter part of the week, ensembles are in decent agreement with upper-level ridging beginning to build closer to our area as we move into more of a northwest flow regime. Temperatures will begin to warm into the low to mid 90s by Friday and into the weekend. Drier conditions are also expected to follow suit, however, moisture will remain leading to hot and humid conditions by the weekend. A return of Heat Advisories may be warranted as early as Saturday.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A midlevel trough will slowly drop into the Midsouth overnight, with a few SHRA possible. An MVFR deck is likely around sunrise at all TAF sites. Cloud bases should lift above VFR threshold by late morning, as temperatures warm.

A few SHRA will develop in the afternoon, mainly east of MEM. Cloud cover should limit convective instability and TSRA potential during the afternoon. Should thunder occur, it would most likely occur at MKL or TUP. .

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal across the Mid-South through the workweek as minimum relative humidity levels remain comfortably above 40 percent. Daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also contribute to maintaining favorable fuel moisture levels.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.