textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning tonight with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and treacherous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

As of 11 AM, a cold front has swept through the region and arctic air has begun to filter in. Max temperatures have already been reached today and will continue to cool as subsidence and diurnal cooling occur. Since gradual cooling will occur all day, aided by snow pack/sleet accumulation, a Cold Weather Advisory will go into effect tonight at 6PM through the entirety of the Winter Storm for areas under the Winter Storm Warning. Further monitoring will be needed for counties in the ice storm warning for their temperature and apparent temperature trends.

Southwesterly flow aloft has slowly begun to pull moisture ahead of a mid-level shortwave. The increasing moisture combined with lift will increase precipitation chances late this evening. While most models are holding off on the onset of precipitation, climatologically in these types of setup, over-running cold air tends to favor earlier onset than models suggest. Due to this, the Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning will still go into effect tonight at 6 PM.

Once precipitation does begin to fall, all types are expected. Generally, snow is the favored precipitation type in northern portions of the region, sleet in central portions, and freezing rain in the south. This will come in two waves, with the bulk of the precipitation occurring late Friday night through Saturday afternoon and once again late Saturday night into Sunday evening. Model guidance continues to have skewing outputs, but a general trend has been slightly warmer aloft. A surface low is expected to develop in Alabama and affect the precipitation types within the second wave. As the low rotates, it will filter in that warmer air; hence models appearing to be overly aggressive in some locations with freezing rain and ice accumulation. Point and click soundings do show a shallow 1-3C warm nose, hence the favored freezing rain. These models, however, do not take into account accumulated snow/sleet on the surface, resulting in lower surface temperatures. A warm nose of about 3C (37F) at 800mb to - 10C (14F) at the surface, should allow for enough time for a transition back to sleet. Sleet accumulations do take much longer to melt due to the opacity of the pellets, which can cause lingering impacts for several days. Due to this storm, travel will be extremely hazardous to impossible and is strongly discouraged across the entire Mid-South.

Snowfall totals will be heavily skewed by incorporated sleet. If pure snowfall remains across the northern tier, there is a medium to high (>60%) chance of greater than 8" of snow in extreme northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee. Sleet accumulations are favored in the 1-3" range in the 'transition zone', and around a half to one inch of ice across the Ice Storm Warning.

One differing change from previous forecasts is due to the developing surface low, warming will occur near the MS/AL stateline. This could result in all liquid precipitation in a few counties (Prentiss, Monroe, and Chickasaw), even enough elevated instability for convective development potential. Liquid QPF values are pretty high (above the 99th percentile) across north Mississippi, which does favor a convective profile. These high QPF amounts could lead to crippling ice accumulations in areas like Oxford and Tupelo where ice accumulations are forecast to be highest. This will be the area to watch to see how much warming can squeak into Mississippi from this developing surface low.

One thing that is entirely certain, is a 1040mb surface high of brutally cold air will slowly encompass the entire Mid-South by Sunday. An Extreme Cold Watch will go into effect highlighting Sunday at 6 PM through 12 PM Tuesday. You can expect this to be upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning / Cold Weather Advisory for dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values. The forecasted ice accumulation is expected to be historic, and this is anticipated to be a record-breaking moment for the longest hours of sub-freezing temperatures. Temperatures were actually lowered due to the strength of the surface high and expected accumulations making it even colder. The forecasted ice accumulation amounts could cause long-lasting weather-related power outages. Preparations to keep warm are strongly encouraged in the event of a power outage next week through this brutal cold.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Conditions will stay VFR through the evening and eventually deteriorate after the onset of precip shortly after midnight tonight. Winds are also expected to stay elevated from the northwest with gusts upwards of 25 kts due to the tight pressure gradient along the front. Still thinking ~08Z is an earliest reasonable arrival time for precip onset, continuing nonstop through the end of the period. Though CAMs do suggest predominantly snow as the precip type for the northern airspace, point soundings are indicative of sleet mixing into the precip at all terminals due to a small warm nose between 700 and 850 mb and a very cold surface layer. Thus incorporated PL into all sites' p type Saturday morning. Visibilities will be variable on Saturday, especially with heavier bands of sleet/snow, but ceilings are expected to drop to at least MVFR and eventually IFR once the system overspreads the airspace.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Accumulating wintry precipitation will begin tonight that will last through the majority of the weekend. Very cold air is expected to accompany the wintry precipitation, but the cold air will persist through the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.