textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected into Saturday, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. Potential hazards include damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall across the northern tier of the Mid-South.

- A period of persistent, dangerous heat and humidity will begin this weekend and continue through next week.

- High temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 90s starting Sunday, with heat indices climbing into the triple digits beginning Saturday. Residents should prepare for heat-related products throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Satellite and radar imagery display numerous thunderstorms across southern Missouri as of Friday evening beneath weak westerlies aloft. A stationary boundary was analyzed from western Missouri, extending east into the Ohio River Valley that will slowly sag south tonight, kicking off additional thunderstorm development just north of the CWA. Late Friday night and into early Saturday morning, CAMs have consistently pushed this boundary south along with a concentrated area of convection, particularly over northeastern Arkansas into northern West Tennessee. CAMs keep the boundary's movement south quite slow, which in conjunction to PWATs around 2.00" and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE would lead to a localized flash flooding threat through Saturday. However, CAMs are still a bit "jumpy", bouncing between solutions every run, leading to some forecast uncertainty in the positioning of the highest rainfall totals. Model consensus seems honed in on the aforementioned areas to see at least 1 - 3 inches of rainfall through Sunday morning. As such, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas through 7 a.m. CDT Sunday for flash flooding potential. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region will be mostly dry with hot, muggy conditions producing heat indices at or above 100 F.

The zonal flow to our north will give way to a large, amplified ridge through Sunday and into next week with 594 dm heights appearing over the region on most guidance by Sunday evening. This will lead to very hot afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 90s starting Sunday. With no meaningful frontal passage with Saturday's convection, the humidity that has plagued the region this past week will unfortunately also remain. Therefore, afternoon heat indices will begin to climb well past 100 F Sunday, lasting through the majority of next week. Currently, peak heat indices max out Monday through Wednesday between 105 and 110 F. At these levels, Heat Advisories are to be expected beginning Sunday, lasting just as long as the heat through next week.

Lastly, guidance has developed an inverted trough that travels around the southern periphery of the upper ridge through the middle of next week. Eventually, these models bring the feature northward into the Mid-South. Height falls associated with this trough may be enough to produce afternoon showers, thunderstorms, clouds, or outflow boundaries that would act to limit the level of heating through the day. Therefore, confidence in the need for heat headlines decreases towards the end of next week, but convection and cloud cover may still be sparse enough in some areas to allow for 105+ F heat indices to continue.These details are expected to become better resolved in the coming days. Regardless, expect oppressive heat to continue through the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Remnants of an MCV may initiate a few SHRAs at JBR and MKL during the overnight hours, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere. Confidence is insufficient to warrant prevailing groups, so PROB30s are utilized. Daytime heating will spark a secondary chance of showers and thunderstorms at JBR and MKL. Coverage will be isolated and hard to pinpoint, so a secondary PROB30 for TSRA was carried. Expect gusty south winds to persist throughout the daytime hours.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through this weekend to recent wetting rains and saturated soils. Hot and precipitation- free conditions are forecast to return to the Mid-South over the weekend and persist into next week, but high surface moisture will keep relative humidity values above 40 percent.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022.