textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s through the end of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Temperatures currently span the 50s to low 60s across the Mid- South with high pressure remaining in firm control of our overall forecast. A weak, upper-level ridge will continue to build through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, leaving behind a dry weather pattern as high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast. Temperatures are still on track to reach the mid to upper 70s across the area today, with some locations rising to the low 80s beginning Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. While conditions will certainly still feel comfortable, this will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the end of October as far as high temperatures go. For our overnight temperatures, lows will vary depending on the location. Generally low lying areas will be closer to the mid to upper 40s, while locations along and west of the MS River will fall to the low to mid 50s.

The only concern through the remainder of the week will be the continued drought conditions and elevated fire danger conditions as a result. As such, be sure to obey all local burn bans. Outdoor burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged. For those wondering when we will finally break out of this weather pattern, there does not appear to be a clear end in sight. Some guidance does want to bring a system towards the middle of next week, but there is still significant uncertainty. Thus, it looks like generally above-normal temperatures and no precipitation will remain in the forecast for the next seven days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions with light NNE winds will prevail through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will continue for the next seven days in the afternoons across the Mid-South. Daily minimum relative humidity values will fall below 35%, with many locations falling below 30%, especially west of the Mississippi River and across north Mississippi. Additionally, with very little rainfall lately and no precipitation in the forecast, minimum 10-hour dead fuel moisture content has fallen to around 10%. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 7 PM this evening, with additional statements likely needed through the week. Luckily, 20-foot winds will remain generally light through the forecast period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.