textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through midweek amid low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Areawide rain chances return late Friday and persist through the Halloween weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through midweek underneath a ridge of high pressure. Diurnal temperature ranges will vary widely, featuring lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. This air mass is anomalously dry for late October, housing precipitable water values around the 25th percentile. This dry air will keep relative humidity values around 30 percent through midweek, which when combined with dry fuels will result in elevated fire weather concerns. Several grass fires have been reported across the Mid- South over the last several days. Ensure you are following local burn bans and disposing of cigarettes properly.

By midweek, the upper level ridge will begin to deamplify as a series of shortwaves pass northwest of the forecast area. With the ridge out of the way, a subtropical jet will have no issue maneuvering over the Mid-South late Friday into Saturday. This feature will bring our first areawide rain chances since the remnants of Hurricane Isaias impacted the region in early October. Unfortunately, the latest guidance is increasing rain probabilities on Halloween with rain chances continuing into Sunday. The LREF has a 20 percent chance of more than 1 inch of rain falling across the area this weekend. While not much, anything will be beneficial.

Long-term guidance keeps an active synoptic pattern next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a large trough over CONUS. However, precise placement and timing of this feature varies. For now, we can expect rain chances to linger into the first week of November.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period with high pressure prevailing. Winds will remain generally SE/ESE, up to around 7 kts through the daytime and going light overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least midweek. The latest Energy Release Component is forecast to drop below the 90th percentile on Wednesday, likely due to slightly increased dewpoints. The main limiting factor for high fire danger will be 20 ft winds, which are forecast to remain below 10 mph. Additional issuances of a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement are anticipated through midweek. Otherwise, expect each day to feature dry conditions with isolated patchy fog in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.