textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- High temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s through Thursday, with a brief cool down back into the 40s to low 50s on Friday.

- Winds will become gusty on Thursday throughout the day, with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph.

- Mild temperatures will return this weekend and are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures will likely prevail on Christmas Day.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A couple of showers are currently pushing across northeast Mississippi this morning, with conditions drying out this afternoon. The forecast remains on track for another day of near to above normal temperatures, with highs spanning the 50s across the Mid-South.

A deepening upper-level trough will move off the Rocky Mountains overnight, bringing a cold front through the Mid-South by tomorrow evening. Ahead of the frontal boundary, scattered showers could begin to develop through the morning with a surge of moisture into the Mid-South. This does bring up a questionable forecast into tomorrow afternoon. While there will be upper-level support and forcing for an isolated strong thunderstorm, the main question remains if we will be able to destabilize across the area. CAMs continue to depict meager lapse rates with even MUCAPE values struggling to reach above 150 J/kg. Surface dew points will approach 60, but this corridor would likely remain in north MS. Given the uncertainties, confidence is pretty low given the lack of instability. If 90th percentile probabilities were able to be realized, then there could be a narrow window of a few strong thunderstorms mainly across West Tennessee through the afternoon hours along the main line. If this were to occur, with the presence of the strong LLJ, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Regardless of the thunderstorm potential for tomorrow, with the increasing LLJ winds will likely become gusty by mid- morning into the afternoon. NBM probabilities suggest over a 70% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph at times across much of the Mid-South, with a few locations across NE AR and the MO Bootheel having around a 30% to 40% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Since confidence is not high in reaching Wind Advisory criteria, we will leave things as-is for now. However, if confidence begins to increase in future forecast packages then a Wind Advisory may be needed for these locations.

Conditions will quickly dry out on Friday behind the frontal boundary, with temperatures plummeting across the Mid-South. Low temperatures Friday morning will fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s, with high temperatures only reaching the 40s to low 50s for much of the area. These cooler temperatures will be short lived as surface winds will quickly return to southerly on Saturday with warm air returning to the Mid-South. Mild conditions are expected to persist into next week, with high temperatures remaining at or above normal for the foreseeable future. This will mean that high temperatures in the 50s to 60s, at least, are here to stay. While a couple of weak shortwaves could bring scattered (20% to 30%) PoP chances early next week, confidence is low with any of these systems. As we near the middle of next week, a weak upper-level ridge will begin to develop across the region. As such, do not expect for us to break out of this above-normal temperature pattern anytime soon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

00Z surface map showed IFR with pockets of LIFR from LIT northeast to near HKA, and a larger area of MVFR downstream across the MEM TRACON. KLZK and KNQA radars showed areas of -DZ, associated with the lower flight conditions.

LAMP and NBM CIG guidance depicts occasional VFR this evening and early overnight. Areas of clearing were noted on GOES IR imagery over southern AR. But this cannot be counted on to persist in a strengthening nocturnal southerly flow. As such, the TAFs maintain prevailing MVFR.

For Thursday, TS chances appear slim for MEM and may be removed if 00Z guidance concurs.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

No major fire weather concerns over the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40% through tomorrow with showers moving through the Mid-South. While minRH value could briefly dip below 40% on Friday, 20kft winds along with recent rains should curb any fire weather danger. MinRH values will rise back above 40% through the upcoming weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.