textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 656 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm will continue with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of north Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and treacherous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will persist into next week. Temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits and below zero at times. Temperatures will not rise above freezing for most of the area for at least the next seven days.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM

Issued at 656 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The shortwave trough over northern Mexico is moving east toward the TX Big Bend at this hour. Broad southwesterly flow aloft downstream of this trough will continue to usher anonymously deep moisture across the region. The frontal zone remains around 3,000 ft deep per the latest KNQA VAD wind profile, with south to southwest winds of 25 kts from 3-6 kft AGL. These southerly winds will advect Gulf moisture into the region, lifting it isentropically over the arctic air mass. The mid-level moisture (700-500 mb) plume emanating from the eastern Pacific is especially impressive on the advected layer precipitable water product. This isentropic ascent will be coupled with increasing dynamic forcing (old school Q-vectors) tonight into early Sunday as a strong potential vorticity anomaly swings across the Mid- South.

We can already see broad, synoptic forcing for ascent via the 10.7 um water vapor loop downstream of the main shortwave trough, signaling that round two is imminent. Radar echoes across the Mid-South have decreased over the past few hours, but the next batch of wintry precipitation is ramping up to our south and west. One area of sleet/snow is increasing over central AR with another wave of freezing rain (and maybe a few sleet showers) taking shape in the ArkLaMiss region. Hi-res guidance indicates these waves will phase over the Mid-South over the coming hours (by 9- 10 PM in most areas), providing another prolonged period of ice and sleet/snow across the area. Given the intensifying warm nose, snow probabilities will continue to gradually wane (even in the northern counties) with sleet and freezing rain probabilities creeping north compared to the previous round.

Additional ice accumulations across northeast MS into the TN River Valley (TN) may exceed 1/2" in some areas. Farther north, expect a mixture of mainly sleet and freezing rain with light ice accumulations and perhaps an additional 1-2" of sleet in areas where bands may develop. We'll have another update

MJ

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A significant winter storm is underway across the Mid-South. Snow has mostly changed over to sleet along and south of the I- 40 corridor, but the profile remains favorable for predominantly snow in our far northern zones. So far reports have ranged from 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet as of 12PM, which will continue to increase as the event progresses. Given the sheer size of the system and its relatively slow eastward progress, expect precip to continue essentially nonstop through Sunday evening. There may be a brief lull late this evening after sunset as the actual front catches up, but there will likely be some sort of light snow or freezing drizzle at all times for the next 36 hours or so.

Additional snow/ice accumulations have not changed with the latest forecast. The heaviest snow band is still expected to fall along the MO/KY state lines with around 8" of total snow. Precipitation type and thus accumulations start to become a little more messy farther south due to WAA in the midlevels contributing to a slight warm nose from 700-850 mb. This warm nose isn't particularly strong, but it is deep enough to allow the ice crystals to melt on the way down and re-freeze into ice pellets (sleet) at the surface. The presence of this sleet creates considerable uncertainty in the ice and snow totals even during the event, especially since it is compacting on top of light and fluffy snow.

A crippling ice storm is still on track for north Mississippi and parts of West Tennessee through Sunday night. The impacts of 1" of ice accretion cannot be understated; this is an absolutely devastating forecast for infrastructure and travel. As of noon Saturday, the freezing rain hasn't really even started yet. It's been mostly light sleet/freezing drizzle for north MS so far but the main p-type is expected to switch over to freezing rain this afternoon and prevail through the end of the event. With a 36+ hour period of freezing rain and intermittent freezing drizzle, a thick layer of ice will accumulate on trees, powerlines, sidewalks, and roads. This added weight will take down numerous powerlines and trees, leading to extended power outages in bitter cold temperatures.

One of the biggest challenges in this forecast is the transition zone between crippling ice and heavy snow. Forecast confidence is very high in 0.5+ inches of ice in the Ice Storm Warning and very high in heavy snow along the MO/KY state lines. In between that, things get fuzzy due to the sleet. The most likely scenario for this transition zone (including the Memphis metro) along the I- 40 corridor is a ~0.25" glaze of ice in addition to 2-3 inches of sleet. Regardless, these snow, sleet, and ice conditions will create compounding impacts that lead to impossible travel.

Impacts from this storm will last far beyond the precip cessation tomorrow night. Though the winter precip will come to a close after sunset on Sunday, temperatures behind the front will absolutely tank overnight. Extremely efficient CAA and an Arctic air mass will further send temperatures plummeting, warranting an upgrade to an Extreme Cold Warning areawide for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills will be in the negatives across the forecast area, as low as -18 degrees in our northern zones. This is dangerous, bitter, hypothermia-inducing cold. Make sure you're covering all exposed skin and limiting time spent outside. If you lose power, close blinds/curtains to keep in heat, and stuff rags or towels under exterior doors to keep the cold out.

Even the extended forecast offers no relief from the tundra. Afternoon temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing for any significant period of time for the next week, except for our far southern counties. The vast majority of the area will remain below freezing through at least next weekend, which will do no favors for the road conditions. The sun may help out with some partial melting of the snow/sleet/ice on the ground midweek, but don't bank on it. Prepare for roads to be slick and dangerous for the rest of the weekend into the work week. On the bright side, there is no precip (liquid or frozen) expected through at least next Saturday. The 6-10 day outlook has a 90% chance of below normal temperatures and a 60% chance of below normal precipitation; in other words, cold and dry for the most part.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Primary concern remains increasing coverage of FZRA after 02Z. An elevated warm front will bring above freezing temperatures and saturated air over shallow Arctic front. During this time, frontal depth will drop to as low as FL015. This elevated warm layer will lift east from 09Z to 15Z, returning sleet and light snow as the primary precip type. For the 00Z TAFs, model soundings from the 21Z HRRR and RAP were used for precip type determination.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Accumulating wintry precipitation continues this afternoon and will end late Sunday. Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 011>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.