textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the region through the weekend and into early next week.

- A modest increase in moisture on Saturday will help ease the elevated fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Persistence forecast continues as an upper level ridge continues to expand into the northern Plains. The ridge will gradually be squashed due to a deepening upper trough across the Pacific Northwest. This will keep temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Saturday, but will result in weak return flow. A slight increase in moisture will raise relative humidity values at or above 30% on Saturday finally providing some relief from the elevated fire danger.

As the ridge continues to be influenced by the aforementioned trough, this will extend a cirrus shield and should moderate temperatures slightly and cap high temperatures at or below 80 degrees. We will remain in easterly/northerly flow aloft which also supports a slight cool down. Confidence remains high in dry conditions and above normal temperatures persisting through the weekend and into early next week.

Confidence lowers into the middle of next week as model guidance continues to disagree on the evolution of the trough and various shortwaves in association. While details do remain uncertain, the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the Mid-South to end October and kick off November with above normal temperatures (70- 80% chance) and above normal precipitation (40-50% chance).

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

High pressure will continue to build eastward across the midsouth for the next 30 hours, with VFR conditions prevailing with light E/SE surface winds.

Davies

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Elevated fire danger concerns will continue as relative humidity (RH) values range between 20-30% this afternoon. A slight increase in moisture, due to weak southerly flow, will raise RH values above the 30% critical threshold on Saturday. 20 ft winds will remain light combined with slowly rising RH values; elevated fire danger is not anticipated to continue. Ongoing drought and fuels will still need to be monitored. Expect patchy, to locally dense, radiation fog development each morning through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.