textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Below normal temperatures today will return to near normal by Tuesday.

- Dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday afternoon.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the upper 80s to 90s by midweek through the end of the week, with some locations seeing heat index values approach 105 by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The primary short-term forecast concern centers on fog potential overnight. While satellite imagery depicts an eroding mid-level cloud deck (~6,000 ft), current dew point depressions of 3- 6 degrees suggest a narrowing window for saturation. Confidence in widespread fog remains low due to a weak but persistent west- to-east pressure gradient, likely maintaining light boundary layer mixing across the Mississippi River Valley. Consequently, expect fog development to remain confined to sheltered valleys where decoupling is most probable.

A highly amplified trough, especially for August standards, is oriented from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest into the western Gulf. This feature has been responsible for the mild temperatures, cloudy skies and light rain we experienced over the weekend. Sunday temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees below normal across much of the Mid-South. A strong ridge will build over the Plains today, shunting the trough east, becoming positioned over the Appalachians this afternoon. As the ridge builds in from the west, temperatures will trend closer to normal today. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s.

By midweek, the ridge will deamplify and transition across the Mississippi River Valley, initiating a warming trend with low to mid-90s expected from Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will suppress convection through Thursday, with only marginal rain chances (20-30%) returning late in the period. For aviation at MEM, note that the tightened 5-knot tailwind constraint remains in effect; south winds must remain below 5 kt to maintain the favored north landing configuration.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the airspace. There is some low end (~30% confidence) potential for MVFR/IFR cigs to impact MKL/TUP overnight as a low pressure system rotates east of the airspace, however, confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Fog and reduced visibility is expected to spread over MKL/TUP overnight with potential IFR visibility at MKL. Otherwise, north/northeast winds will remain less than 10 kts over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.