textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will continue to bring light rain east of the Mississippi River and a few wind gusts to 25 mph along the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi through this evening.

- Dry conditions will return to the Mid-South on Sunday, with above-normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of Isaias have fully merged with an upper trough, becoming extratropical last night. The resulting upper system will continue northward today with a bit of a retrograde into West Tennessee through this afternoon before being kicked out east late Sunday. Precipitation is evident on regional radars, but surface observations throughout our region point to an underperformance of rainfall accumulation compared to MRMS/dual- pol estimates. The main culprit is seen on the 12z Nashville sounding with a deep layer of relatively dry air up to 700 mb causing high amounts of evaporation. Therefore, remaining rainfall accumulation is expected to remain at or below 1.00", maximized along the Tennessee River and has allowed for the cancellation of the Flood Watch. However, the Wind Advisory does remain for areas east of the Mississippi River through 8 PM CDT. Although winds have struggled to gust anywhere close to 40 mph, CAMs still show 30 - 40 mph winds through this afternoon. It is likely that evaporative cooling from precipitation may allow for enough sinking motion below 700 mb for the downward transfer of momentum to the surface. Winds in this layer have already been sampled as high as 50 knots from the OHX/NQA/GWX VADs. So, there is still potential for these winds to bring Wind Advisory criteria gusts for the next several hours.

The remnants of Isaias will still exist over the region Sunday, but dry air entrainment on the northwest side of the trough will steadily eat away at rain coverage through the early morning hours. By sunrise, the Mid-South is expected to be precipitation- free with a notable decrease in winds. Sunshine will then return in most areas, which in conjunction with dewpoints in the low 60s or upper 50s will lead to highs in the upper 80s. Areas along the Tennessee River may hang on to cloud cover for longer, which would keep highs in the upper 70s. As the upper system continues east into early next week, a warming trend will commence with highs gradually sneaking back into the low 90s as an upper ridge develops over the southern CONUS through the middle of next week with dry weather expected.

Medium-range guidance shows a new shortwave trough traversing the Rockies by Wednesday. However, there is a large amount of variability in the evolution of this trough with some guidance bringing it east through the end of the week and others allowing it to become cutoff over the Rockies. LREF clusters seem to prefer the trough to stall or only slowly propagate east, which would keep the region drier and warmer through the end of next week, but by Saturday they heavily favor the return of northwesterlies across the eastern CONUS. Most guidance, both deterministic and ensemble, then have a front following this pattern change into next weekend, offering the next best chance at cooler, more fall-like weather. All things considered though, this is late in the forecast and is very much subject to changes in following forecasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Most of the impacts from Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias have pushed east of our airspace. A few light showers remain at MEM/MKL/TUP and will continue over the next few hours. MVFR ceilings have begun to filter into sites along the Tennessee River impacting both MKL and TUP through the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. A few gusts up to 25 kts will remain, mainly impacting TUP over the next few hours before dropping out. Outside of gusts, north/northwest winds will shift more south/southeast by the end of the period at 10 kts or less.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% through this today while Isaias' moisture remains, but 20-foot winds could approach 20 miles per hour through this evening. Moisture will decrease Sunday and into next week with a steady drop in relative humidity. By Monday afternoon, portions of the region are forecast to see minimum relative humidity values below 30 percent, particularly in areas east of the MS River leading to the potential for elevated fire danger. However, 20-foot winds by this point will be light, mitigating higher fire danger. Southerlies will return Tuesday, leading to minimum relative humidity values climbing back above 40% throughout the majority of the region through the end of the forecast period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.