textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight and into Wednesday morning.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

- Past Tuesday, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A broad jet streak remains over the central Plains, extending east into the Great Lakes region with a weaker belt of southwesterlies over the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms pushed a front into the region this afternoon from the northwest, which continues to produce showers and thunderstorms as of 03z. Mesoanalysis shows ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which should support continued thunderstorm development along the boundary through the night. The complex is expected to continue east, posing only a marginal damaging wind threat and localized flooding. Recent HRRR/RAP runs redevelop storms across the Mississippi River Delta after 06z along an area of 925mb - 850mb convergence or weak frontogenesis. However, this convection is expected to remain sub- severe considering weak to non-existent effective shear and a decrease in MUCAPE to at or below 500 J/kg.

Showers will remain across the region into Wednesday morning as the front stalls due to upper height rises with a steady decrease in convective coverage through the morning. Clouds and remnant showers will lead to lower high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Although the temperatures will decrease, the front's inability to meaningfully clear the region will allow for moisture to remain. Therefore, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s, leading to very muggy, humid conditions. The upper profile will also follow the same picture with moist- adiabatic temperature profiles and 1.8" - 2.0" PWATs throughout the region, producing enough MUCAPE and/or MLCAPE for additional convective development through the afternoon hours. Height rises and very low shear will keep the severe threat at bay, but scattered heavy downpours are expected.

This pattern looks likely to persist as ensembles have converged on the ridge axis nudging east of the region, allowing for multiple, weak shortwaves to propagate into the region through the end of the week. The air mass will remain very moist with 90%+ percentile PWATs residing through the area, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, and also keeping temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Coverage will be dependent on the upper forcing available, which appears to be maximized Friday as a more notable shortwave passes over the region. Enough effective shear and MLCAPE will overlap to produce the potential for a low-end severe damaging wind threat. This feature will pass Saturday, likely leading to somewhat of a decrease in convective coverage, but rainfall is still expected across the region through Sunday.

Through Sunday, an area of 50 kt mid-level flow will eject from northwestern Mexico and travel northeast towards the Mid-South, amplifying into a closed upper low. The eastern side of the upper low will contain a region of 40+ kt southerlies that will overspread the region. Although models have struggled with run-to- run consistency regarding this feature, there is growing confidence in an enhanced low-level response within a very moist air mass. If a broad warm sector can maintain its instability into the afternoon, another marginal threat for damaging wind gusts could materialize. However, closed upper lows are very often subject to large model variability and changes to this forecast are expected in the coming days, but current trends have pointed towards this solution. Model variability regarding the evolution of the upper low only grows through the end of the period Tuesday, but the background synoptic pattern will largely remain the same with a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coastline and broad troughing over the western CONUS. Therefore, rainy and unsettled weather still seems on the table next Tuesday that could last beyond the forecast period into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

SHRAs will continue near MEM, MKL, and JBR through late morning. There is medium to high confidence in MVFR/IFR CIGs persisting throughout much of the period as a cold front remains stalled across the region. There is low confidence of TSRA this afternoon at MEM and MKL with medium confidence at TUP.

The front is expected to sag south near TUP overnight. IFR CIGs are expected at all sites with a low to medium chance of LIFR, especially at TUP. Winds will be light and northerly behind the front.

AMD NOT SKED at TUP, due to missing observation since 20/08Z.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Expect showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Memorial Day Weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.