textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Dangerous heat is expected this week with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees through Friday.

- High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures only cooling to the mid to upper 70s.

- Rain chances will remain mostly low (15-30%) into the upcoming holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A persistence forecast continues across the Mid-South today as hot and humid air remains entrenched across the region. Noon temperatures have risen into the lower 90s with surface dewpoints currently in the 70s. Visible satellite trends show some diurnal cumulus producing mostly sunny skies across the area.

Temperatures are on track to rise into the lower to middle 90s this afternoon. We have low confidence in temperatures reaching 100 degrees in the short term as NBM guidance has exhibited a warm bias across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thus, temperatures were adjusted accordingly to reflect these trends over the next few days. A combination of very hot temperatures in the 90s and surface dewpoints in the 70s is expected to produce afternoon heat index values between 105 to 109 degrees through Friday. Consequently, the Extreme Heat Watch was transitioned to a Heat Advisory for Wednesday and Thursday with an expansion of time into early Friday evening.

Isolated to scattered pulse-type showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday over north Mississippi during peak heating as low level moisture increases on the southern periphery of the upper level high. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low at best. Short-term model trends indicate a slight, but gradual increase in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend as the upper-level high moves east towards the Mid-Atlantic States. Coverage into next week will occur mostly during afternoon peak heating each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected across the airspace as high pressure remains in place. Winds will likely go calm overnight, picking back up to between 5 to 8 kts through the daytime hours tomorrow, Some fluctuations in wind direction may be noted as the high pressure drifts further to the east, although winds should generally remain between SW and SE. There is a low chance for some afternoon TSRA, but confidence is too low to warrant any mention outside of a PROB30 for TUP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent. The next chance for any measurable precipitation will not arrive until the middle to latter half of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.