textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight with additional rain chances through Saturday afternoon. Expect only minor relief from the heat and drought conditions.

- Hot and dry weather returns Sunday into next week as high pressure builds over the region. Heat Advisories may be needed Sunday into early next week for portions of the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Scattered thunderstorms from earlier this evening have all but dissipated in the absence of diurnal surface heating. Some storms may continue to develop within a zone of ascent ahead of a seasonably strong upper low as it passes through the region and along draped outflow over northwest MS. This additional activity is expected to remain sub-severe as instability steadily decreases along with bulk shear values below 30 knots. Otherwise, cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s will settle in tonight, but dewpoints in just above 70 F will keep lows out of the 60s. However, this evening's rains have cooled off much of the region and added moisture to the low-levels, enough to where areas of fog may develop through Saturday morning depending on how much mid-level cloud cover develops. Mid-level water vapor imagery from this evening shows an area of decent subsidence that should keep clouds from developing from 850 mb upward, which would lean towards a decent fog threat in low-lying areas, particularly across northern MS and West TN.

No synoptic front will pass through tonight, meaning that much of the surface moisture that was partly responsible for Friday's storms will remain. Additionally, the upper trough may still be over portions of northeast MS and West TN through the early afternoon hours that would lead to a reinvigoration of convection. Any storms Saturday are expected to be relatively isolated and are also not forecast to pose much of a severe threat; mainly gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Alongside the isolated rain, highs will still manage to reach up into the middle 90s with heat indices likely climbing above 100 F for the majority of the region.

The upper trough will have exited the region well in advance of Sunday morning with the upper ridge coming back to take its place as 594+ dm heights make their return. In response, surface temperatures will climb further, making their way into the upper 90s and perhaps above 100 F Sunday afternoon. Models show that moisture will mix out drastically during the daytime hours, leading to heat index values above 100 F, but not above 105 F for most areas, which is our threshold for heat headlines. Some locations throughout the MS River Delta in eastern AR and northwest MS may still need Heat Advisories into next week. Regardless of the presence of a Heat Advisory, conditions will still be humid and hot with little reprieve expected. Unfortunately, this forecast is likely to stretch beyond Sunday and looks to last through much of next week with similar conditions each day. A trend has been emerging within ensembles that point to a gradual, possibly seasonal, weakening of the ridge by the end of next week, but run-to-run variability remains high. So, it's probably not best to get our hopes up just yet that the heat will finally retreat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper-level low will move across the region overnight into Saturday morning resulting in the development of additional showers and thunderstorms mainly over north MS. Guidance continues to support the development of IFR ceilings at TUP towards sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions and mainly rain free conditions are expected through the period. Light winds will become northwest 5-8 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue producing wetting rains through Saturday afternoon, primarily across portions of West TN and northern MS. Rains from the past 24 hours will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% throughout the region through Sunday afternoon, which alongside weak 20 foot winds, will keep fire danger at a minimum. Hot and precipitation-free conditions will arrive by Sunday and are expected to remain through the end of the forecast period. Into early next week, minimum relative humidity values will begin to drop below 40% as the area dries out, but a continuation of light 20 foot winds and increased soil moisture from recent rains will continue to keep fire danger at a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.