textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist into early next week with high temperatures mainly in the 80s.

- Rain shower chances return as early as Wednesday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours thanks to cloud coverage stemming from ongoing convection in OK/KS. A few showers ahead of the main cluster of storms are traversing across the Ozarks as of 11 am. Confidence in these showers affecting the Mid-South is low due to the presence of upper level ridging resulting in large dewpoint depression values. Sunday will generally be a rinse and repeat of today as the synoptic pattern remains stagnant. Upper level moisture will begin to increase on Sunday and more on Monday as Hurricane Polo is forecast to make landfall on the Baja California Peninsula. This moisture, however, will take time to dampen the current 586 dam ridge over the area, so the largest effects will not be felt until southerly flow overtakes the entire column by Tuesday and temperatures and humidity climb.

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has favored a slower evolution of a cut off low developing in the Desert Southwest before traversing northeast across the CONUS. This unfortunately delays the cold front associated with this system and accompanied rainfall. Most guidance does not bring widespread PoPs to the forecast until Thursday evening at the earliest. There are still large discrepancies in the timing of FROPA, noted by 10-15 degree temperature differences between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles late next week. Enjoy the last days of cooler conditions before summer like humidity returns by midweek.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions and light easterly flow will persist for the next 30 hours. No aviation concerns.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper-level ridge positioned over the Mid-South will maintain benign, dry conditions through early next week. While afternoon relative humidity (RH) levels will drop into the 30s and 40s across parts of the region, consistently light surface winds and moderate daytime temperatures will prevent any critical fire weather thresholds from being reached. Furthermore, light winds and cooling overnight temperatures will support patchy early morning fog, particularly near river basins.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.