textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Near record warm temperatures are expected through this afternoon, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Unsettled weather returns this morning as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast through Saturday.

- Much colder air is anticipated Sunday and Monday, with temperatures dropping back toward or slightly below normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The latest surface analysis depicts a 992mb surface low over central Minnesota. This parent low is stretching a weak cold front just to the northwest of the Mid-South. The combination of dry air aloft and a developing surface low near the ArkLaTex, will have this front wash out before it can cross the region. The front, however, has had enough moisture pull for some sprinkles and drizzle along and south of I-40.

Another system will eject out of the Rockies late tonight and stage a cold frontal passage for Thursday evening. Ahead of this, the pressure gradient will tighten once more and gusty conditions are in store in the front's wake. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 9 AM for areas in closest proximity to the system, which includes northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A leading shortwave ahead of the main frontal boundary will interact with the washed out frontal boundary and initiate shower development by late Thursday morning. The upper levels still appear to be very dry, so QPF values are rather lack-luster along the KY/TN/MO borders. As the front taps into better surface moisture further south, shower and thunderstorm coverage will enhance over northeast Mississippi. By Friday evening, a stout shortwave will skirt across the Mid-South. The current track appears to follow along and south of the I-40 corridor, but will move quickly across the region. Probabilities of receiving a quarter of an inch or more by Saturday afternoon are generally between 20-40% across northeast Mississippi, with higher probabilities (near 60%) in Monroe County. No severe weather is expected with any of this activity as limited upper level moisture is available to support upscale growth.

The front that crosses the region Thursday night into Friday will attempt to return north as a warm front on Saturday while a northern stream shortwave takes aim across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Saturday will be rather unsettled with increased rain chances once again. The quick moving nature of these systems with near climatology PW values, will have QPF values on the lower end again. As rain moves out by Sunday evening, there is a 20-40% chance of receiving a half an inch across northeast Mississippi.

By Sunday, a strong area of Canadian high pressure will encompass most of the central CONUS. By Monday and Tuesday, this will intensify and center over the Mid-South to drop temperatures below normal. Monday morning has high probabilities across much of the area to dip below 32F, but Tuesday morning has high probabilities for almost the entire Mid-South to drop below 28F. There is a bit of model discrepancy after Tuesday of how long/quickly ridging can build in and when the next system will cross the area.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A 995mb surface low tracking across Kansas into north Missouri will result in strengthening south to south-west winds across the Mid-South. CIGS will tank to IFR before sunrise and gradually improve throughout the day. Southwest winds will increase tomorrow reaching sustained speeds of 15-20kts with gusts up to 35kts, strongest near JBR. Precipitation looks unlikely (<20%).

A cold front will move into east Arkansas tomorrow evening. FROPA is expected at JBR just before midnight and MEM an hour or so after midnight. Northwest LLWS 40-45 kts is expected tomorrow night. VFR conditions will return to JBR around 21Z, MEM around 22Z, MKL near 01Z and TUP near 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Wetting rain chances increase for southern portions of the Mid- South beginning Thursday. Dry conditions in northern portions of the region with elevated 20 ft winds will result in a limited fire danger for the aforementioned area. A cooler and wetter pattern will emerge after Thursday, leading to generally reduced fire weather risk as humidity rises and fuel moisture improves.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.