textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Gusty northeast winds will occur behind a cold front Saturday morning, leading to brisk wind chills near freezing.

- Elevated fire danger is expected across the entire Mid-South on Saturday due to very low humidity and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for north Mississippi.

- A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal next week, with medium confidence for appreciable rainfall by midweek (Wednesday through Friday).

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A cold front is making its way through the Mid-South with a few light showers along the leading edge of the boundary. Looking at some point forecast soundings across our southern zones, the low levels are expected to start drying out fairly quickly tonight as the dry air associated with the front catches up. As a result, QPF remains quite low (< 0.10", if that). Things will start to clear out fairly quickly behind the front, leading to a chilly Saturday morning with low temperatures in the mid 30s. A brisk northeast wind with gusts upwards of 20 MPH will also add a bite on top of the cold, dropping wind chills below freezing.

After the front passes, Saturday will be our coolest day of the forecast period with highs (actually below normal for late March) in the low to mid 60s. The airmass behind this cold front is extremely dry, to the point where fire weather danger will reach critical levels in the afternoon. The latest HREF dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s Saturday afternoon, which tanks the relative humidity values below 25%, especially across north Mississippi where temperatures are a little warmer. Given the added gusty winds behind the front and extreme drought littering the area with dry fuels, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for north Mississippi. This means that any kind of grass fire ignited by a spark or open flame could spread quickly into a wildfire. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will most likely be necessary for the rest of the area due to the very meager QPF doing almost nothing to wet the fuels on Friday.

Elevated fire danger will continue into Sunday as temperatures warm up but dewpoints remain low. A weak southerly component in the surface winds will aid in moisture advection from the Gulf Coast, which will help nudge RH values above 25% and should negate the need for more fire weather headlines. Still exercise caution with any kind of open flame and check with local officials for county burn bans.

Next week starts off dry and mild as residual high pressure migrates off to the east. A warming trend also takes hold as return flow on the back side of the surface high sets in. We'll be back above normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 80s, but plenty of sunshine. The next cold front is slated to move through on Wednesday morning, bringing PoPs back up to the 50-60% range. This same front will most likely stall out on Thursday, keeping us in a wet pattern through the end of the week. Early ensemble profiles indicate a messy convective regime Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday along this stalled front. No one particular day is jumping out for a synoptic severe weather setup; it will most likely be several days of widespread showers and thunderstorms until the front is able to clear the area.

CAD

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Northeast winds will remain gusty, up to 25 kts, overnight behind Friday's cold front. The pressure gradient will finally begin to loosen around daybreak as gusts drop out and winds shift more easterly. VFR conditions will remain across the airspace through the TAF period.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Friday's cold front was largely unsuccessful in providing a wetting rain. Only about a trace to a couple hundredths were observed, which will offer very little in the way of mitigating fire weather danger Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday for a combination of very dry fuels, gusty northeast/east winds, and very low relative humidity. MinRH values are currently forecast to be between 20 and 25% Saturday afternoon, however, dewpoints in this kind of post-frontal airmass are notoriously overestimated in models. There is a low chance of MinRHs dropping below 20% if more dry air is able to mix down than the current forecast suggests. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will most likely be needed for areas outside of the RFW for non-critical but still elevated fire weather danger.

Fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday as temperatures warm up but dewpoints remain low. A weak southerly component in the surface winds will aid in moisture advection from the Gulf Coast, which will help nudge RH values above 25% and should negate the need for more fire weather headlines.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...None.