textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Slightly below normal high temperatures will prevail through Wednesday, as chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. The chances for severe thunderstorms are low, but a few storms could produce strong winds and heavy downpours.

- Temperatures and humidity increase by Thursday and continue through the weekend. Heat Advisories may be needed. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will bring localized relief from the heat.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends showed a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region back through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An upper-level low was also located at the base of the trough over the region. Convective activity during the day had been more widely scattered than the past holiday weekend with activity occurring on the western and northeastern edge of the forecast area. As of late evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms are located over the Memphis metro area. Late evening temperatures are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

This upper-level low over north central Arkansas is providing some lift to produce the showers and thunderstorms along the Mississippi River. Latest mesoanalysis yielded around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, shear around 20 kts, and weak mid-level lapse rates. This activity is expected to weaken over the next 2-3 hours with the severe weather potential remaining low at best.

Short-term models show this upper-level low moving very slowly across the Mid-South Tuesday into Wednesday. Overall shear is expected to remain weak, thus convective coverage will peak during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for early July with dewpoints in the lower 70s, keeping heat index values mainly around 100 degrees.

Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to gradually increase beginning Thursday as the trough lifts out of the region and is replaced by nearly zonal flow to slightly northwest flow aloft. Areas along and west of the Mississippi River may reach heat advisory criteria as temperatures rise towards the middle 90s. Convective coverage is also anticipated to remain low on Thursday with the best rain chances occurring near the Tennessee River. Upper-level flow will transition to northwest flow aloft over the upcoming weekend with better chances for showers and thunderstorms occurring, especially during peak heating.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A stalled surface boundary will encourage thunderstorm development this afternoon, necessitating PROB30 groups at all sites. Outside of thunderstorm activity, conditions will be VFR with light northerly winds becoming southerly by the end of the period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily during peak heating.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.