textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated each day as heat indices between 105 to 110 are expected.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon through at least Wednesday, primarily east of the Mississippi River.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A warm day is already in play across the Mid-South as 594 dam ridding from the four corners region has begun to infiltrate into the Mississippi Valley. Current temperatures have already climbed into the upper 80s to lower 90s with triple digit heat indices in some places. As we head into the afternoon hours, we'll continue to warm into the mid 90s mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. These areas are also expected to see heat indices in excess of 105F warranting a Heat Advisory remaining in effect through 8PM this evening. As with the past few days, heading into peak daytime heating this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven pop-up showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Once again, we're looking at a high CAPE and low shear environment, typical with summertime convection. As far as values go, forecast soundings are indicating upwards of 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, around 15 kts of effective shear, 0-3km lapse rates around 8.0 C/km, and PWATs around 1.8". Something to note: we don't have as great of an environment nor quite as much moisture as yesterday, however, stronger thunderstorms could dip into enough instability to create a tall enough updraft for a damaging wind gust or two, with the best coverage over north Mississippi.

Moving through the week, temperatures will continue to warm with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s as aforementioned ridging and a secondary 597dam ridge over the southeastern CONUS continue to broaden and heights continue to rise. A pretty decent dewpoint spread exists across deterministic and ensemble members with HREF trending lower, in the low 70s and the GFS/NBM trending higher in the mid to upper 70s. Depending on how high dewpoints are able to climb, will greatly determine how high heat indices become. Nonetheless, Heat Advisories will be warranted across at least portions of the Mid-South each day as heat indices increase to 105+F. As far as shower and thunderstorm chances go, moving into mid-week, as heights increase, chances decrease. Though, pop-up, diurnally driven activity can't be ruled out each afternoon, especially east of the Mississippi River.

As we approach the latter half of the week and into the weekend, guidance continues to trend warmer as ridging of the southeastern CONUS looks to dominate the Mid-South with little to no influence from troughing to our north. Previous runs were pushing us more into a northwest flow regime with troughing digging further south, however, confidence in this solution continues to decrease. There remains around a 4-5 degree spread in high temperatures late week and into the weekend, but the 10th percentile is in the upper 90s with the 90th percentile in the lower 100s. Bottom line, it will be hot for the foreseeable future. If ridging holds strong rain chances will also continue to decrease, potentially creating a dry spell beginning Thursday and lasting through at least the seven day period. Even if a northwest flow regime is able to infiltrate into the Mid-South, given how strong this ridge looks to become we will be hot and humid despite a potential shift in the upper pattern. Heat indices in excess of 110F are not out of the question.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop again this afternoon during peak heating. Coverage will be highest over N MS where deeper moisture resides. Short- term models continue to struggle on location and coverage of convection thus will continue with PROB30 groups at all sites except JBR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection with south winds between 7-11 kts during the day and light at night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fire weather danger will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable future as minimum relative humidity values continue to stay above 40% alongside light 20 ft winds across the region. Outside of isolated shower and thunderstorm chances mainly over north Mississippi in the afternoons, primarily dry conditions will exist as temperatures increase.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020- 048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>090.