textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday.

- Triple-digit heat index values return this weekend. Heat headlines may be needed, particularly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Mostly dry conditions and cloudy skies cover the region at this hour due to upper level ridging over the Midwest with troughing to our east. LZK and OHX morning soundings show zonal to southeast flow is present, which has kept lapse rates stable. In accordance with surface observations, southwest flow is beginning to take over as of 10 AM. This will allow low level lapse rates to steepen slightly, and enhance typical summertime pulse convection this afternoon. Enhanced cloud cover and poor wind profiles aloft will prohibit intense updrafts from developing in any agitated cumulus. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will appear this afternoon and threaten heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. PW values (also from LZK and OHX morning soundings) are over 2" making these storms efficient rainfall producers. They should be short lived, limiting a flooding concern, but hefty downpours over an urbanized/low lying area could cause a brief disruption on the afternoon/evening commute. An additional hazard that could occur to motorists tonight into tomorrow morning is fog. Winds will go light/calm overnight and skies will gradually clear out. Probabilities from the HREF for visibilities less than 1/2 mile are medium to high for areas along and north of I-40 with some patchy and locally dense fog percentages across north Mississippi. If this solution plays out, a Dense Fog Advisory will be warranted, particularly from 4 AM through at least 8 AM.

The aforementioned surface low will retrograde over the mid- Mississippi Valley through tomorrow morning as return flow continues. This will allow temperatures to creep back up into the upper 80s and lower 90s through the end of the work week. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Friday evening. NBM probabilities for 0.50" of precipitation or more range from 20-50% through Saturday morning. These probabilities taper off quickly with a 10% chance or less to receive 1.00" or more. The highest probabilities are in extreme northeast Arkansas, which would be beneficial for ongoing D3 drought conditions.

The weekend forecast becomes a bit uncertain as models continue to poorly resolve the strong upper level ridge and how far south it will sink. A clearer signal is the presence of northwest flow aloft. This will make the region susceptible to shortwave passages increasing rainfall chances. Due to the poor agreement, and increased confidence for northwest flow, NBM max temperatures display an 8-10 degree spread from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile. The warmest temperatures will likely occur in the Mississippi Delta Region, but will vary based on afternoon convective coverage. A Heat Advisory is not out of the question at some point through the weekend, but headlines will be considered as time nears and confidence increases. Though isolated, the highest precipitation chances will generally be in northern regions where northwest flow is strongest. While an unsettled pattern is expected through the forecast period, long range guidance does hint at a pattern shift as a cold frontal passage could occur by the middle of next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Similar to the past several evenings, SHRA and isolated TSRA will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. No significant issues foreseen for the late evening MEM inbound push, with light SW winds and VFR.

Overnight, MKL may experience IFR CIG, given the position of a stationary front to the south. If this low deck does not form, LIVFR VIS will not be out of the question, given light winds and high boundary layer humidity.

Expect TSRA coverage to be more sparse on Thursday, and mainly northeast of MEM and outside the TRACON.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as ample moisture and wetting rain chances persist.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.