textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Dangerous and oppressive heat is expected this week with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees on Tuesday. Some locations may reach or exceed 110 degrees by the middle to end of this week.

- Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures only cooling to the mid to upper 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap for the Mid-South with high pressure continuing to dominate the forecast for the foreseeable future. Clear conditions are currently observed, with temperatures spanning the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will fall a few more degrees before sunrise, only dipping to the mid to upper 70s. Things will rapidly warm up following sunrise with yet another hot and humid day expected across the area. Temperatures thus far this week have underperformed a bit, with temperatures "only" reaching the low 90s for much of the area on Monday. This does raise some questions for our high temperatures on Tuesday, which are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s. Nonetheless, even if temperatures were to underperform a bit, still believe a large portion of the area will get close to or exceed 105 degrees, so have continued the Heat Advisory across the entire Mid-South. Continue to exercise caution if you must be outside for long periods of time, take plenty of breaks in shaded areas, and stay hydrated.

The upper-level ridge pattern driving our heat wave this week will slowly drift further east by midweek into the latter half of the week. This will allow for some additional moisture to return to the area and may kick off some diurnally-driven afternoon convection. Starting Wednesday afternoon through the back half of the week, expect for isolated to scattered (15-30%) chances of thunderstorms. This will be the typical summertime variety, with a strong storm or two not out of the question. The best chances will generally be along and east of the MS River. With the potential uptick in afternoon convection, this could play spoiler for a few locations with afternoon high temperatures. Nonetheless, given the sporadic nature, will continue advertising highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values likely exceeding 105 if not 110. A break from this pattern likely will not arrive until into next week, although specifics are still highly uncertain with notable spread amongst ensemble members.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Early morning light fog will dissipate rapidly, giving way to persistent VFR conditions across all terminals. Winds will remain light and variable, shifting to a light southerly flow after 00Z. There is medium confidence in brief MVFR visibility at TUP and MKL around sunrise due to calm winds.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent. The next chance for any measurable precipitation will not arrive until the middle to latter half of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.