textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- A warming trend continues today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s.

- Heat headlines will likely return by the middle of next week as humidity increases across the area.

- There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of next week. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

00Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge encompassing much of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. This is resulting in a continuation of dry conditions across the Mid-South with well above normal temperatures for late August. Late evening temperatures are predominantly in the 70s across the area.

The aforementioned surface high will push east on Sunday allowing southerly winds on the back side of high pressure to develop and advect higher dewpoint air back into the area, especially east of the Mississippi River. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the middle to upper 90s as the upper-level ridge strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This ridge will result in a mainly dry and very hot persistence forecast across the Mid-South for most of next week. A combination of daily highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with the gradually rising humidity will result in heat index values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees in some locations perhaps as early as Monday across portions of northwest Mississippi and East Arkansas (south of I-40). Confidence is higher for heat headlines occurring mid to late week. A weak tropical wave in the northern Gulf may bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms towards next weekend to portions of north Mississippi.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Surface high pressure building in from the west will result in south winds 7- 10 kts today and tomorrow, less than 5kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 30 to 35 percent west of the Mississippi River on Sunday as a dry airmass continues across the region. 20-foot winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph through the remainder of the weekend, but fuels will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger heading into the upcoming week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.