textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- There is a medium chance for a line of storms to pass through the region tonight with a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for damaging winds.

- A Slight (level 2/5) Risk to Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes covers much of the Mid-South Monday through early Tuesday morning.

- Another round of severe weather is expected Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning with a Slight (2/5) Risk in effect across the entire Mid-South.

- Weather will cool off and dry out through the end of next week with highs returning to the 70s and low 80s as early as Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A warm front is currently lifting north across the region in response to a deepening surface low over the central Plains. Tropical moisture will stream in behind the front with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and low 70s tonight. Although moisture will be high, precipitation is not forecast for at least the first few hours of the period as the front continues north. But as we progress through the night, several forecast cycles from the HRRR and multiple REFS members show storms to our west congealing into an MCS and entering the region early this morning. Instability will be on the rise thanks to the tropical air mass streaming into the region and would allow for damaging wind potential through this morning. However, there is still considerable run-to-run inconsistency with this aspect of the forecast and additional changes are likely through the night as we monitor trends. So, for the time being, SPC has placed portions of eastern AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN in a marginal risk through 7 a.m for damaging straight line winds.

Surface cyclogenesis will continue into Monday afternoon with additional warm advection expected throughout the day as a 60 - 80 knot 500 mb jet streak overspreads the central CONUS. Surface dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s will yield MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg by late afternoon in areas that do not see moisture scoured out by morning storms. As the jet streak noses into the region during the late evening hours, bulk shear values will rise above 40 knots alongside ESRH values climbing above 250 m2/s2. Storms are expected to initiate along a cold front north of the region through the day and eventually migrate south into this environment through the night. This mode of convection will most likely take the form of a broken line of supercells and bowing line segments capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The potential for storms to initiate in the open warm sector still exists, especially if morning storms are able to aid in the development of a modified outflow boundary or if enough prefrontal troughing exists even within a hostile synoptic environment. If storms can develop ahead of the line tomorrow evening, they would be the storms with the highest potential for large hail and potentially strong tornadoes. Eventually, the front from our north will move through the region and make its way into northern Mississippi early Tuesday morning with a continued damaging wind and tornado threat.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to still be ongoing along the front Tuesday morning across northern Mississippi. Upper height rises will be occurring at the same time as the upper trough from Monday lifts north out of the CONUS, slowing down the southerly progression of the front. Another jet streak and low amplitude upper trough will eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday morning, traveling east towards the middle Mississippi River Valley through the afternoon. Enough of a surface response is expected ahead of the new jet streak for 2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop across much of the region. CAMs, NAM, and RAP guidance blow up convection as the upper lift arrives with the trough in conjunction with roughly 50 knots of effective bulk shear. Therefore, organized convection appears likely again Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning. The exact storm mode is still unlikely, but CAMs seem to prefer a messier mode that quickly grows upscale into a large MCS or several bowing line segments capable of mainly damaging winds. The large hail and tornado threat will be higher within storms that can remain more discrete.

A surface front will finally clear the area Wednesday with a few lingering storms through morning and early afternoon hours which could pose a low-end threat of damaging winds and hail. Cooler, drier weather will follow late Wednesday and Thursday, where highs are expected to only rise into the 70s and low 80s. Another shortwave trough will eject from the southern Rockies Thursday and make its way east through the southern CONUS, reaching the Mid-South Friday. Rain showers are expected as this system passes with no expectation for thunderstorms at this time. The rest of the forecast will then remain cool and dry as high pressure returns behind Friday's trough.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Hi-res guidance continues to be a moving target. As such, confidence remains on the low end regarding TSRA potential. The biggest change this cycle was to remove VCSH and VCTS through tomorrow morning at MEM and JBR respectively. Coverage of -TSRA will be heavily dependent on the evolution of a convective system over southern Missouri over the next 3 to 12 hours. PROB30s were added as placeholders for potential timing of -TSRAs through the period. Another round of TSRA will affect all sites tomorrow evening as a cold front moves into the region. Coverage of storms at each TAF site remains uncertain.

High confidence resides in strong southerly winds developing tomorrow morning in response to a deepening surface low over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Wind gusts up to 30 kts at both JBR and MEM with up to 25 kts at MKL and TUP. Another round of TSRA is forecast to affect all sites tomorrow evening as a cold front moves into the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upcoming showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40% through the forecast period. In conjunction with weak 20 ft winds, fire danger is expected to be low through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.