textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South through tomorrow, with heat indices peaking near 115 degrees.

- Seasonal temperatures and reduced humidity arrive by midweek, offering relief from the extreme conditions.

- Predominantly dry conditions expected through the weekend, with low-confidence precipitation chances on Wednesday and again late Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Dangerously hot and humid conditions persist across the Mid-South as a robust 598+ dam ridge remains centered over the western Plains and southern Rockies. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s areawide, with heat indices exceeding 110 degrees again tomorrow. Consequently, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM tomorrow.

A typical summertime pattern encompasses the CONUS, characterized by a strong ridge over the Plains and Intermountain West and a weak trough over the Northeast. This configuration is expected to remain largely stagnant over the next five days. However, a trough originating in central Canada is projected to dive across the northern Plains into the Midwest after midweek, facilitating the erosion of the eastern periphery of the ridge and allowing slightly cooler conditions to return to the Mid-South.

A deepening trough along the East Coast will help usher a cold front into northwest Tennessee early Wednesday, progressing southwest into central Mississippi and Arkansas by the evening. While isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible, limited moisture profiles will likely preclude widespread rainfall. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will trend cooler as the western ridge shifts slightly further west. Highs through Saturday are forecast in the upper 80s to lower 90s, remaining below Heat Advisory or Warning criteria.

Model guidance suggests a better potential for widespread rainfall by Saturday as a potent shortwave tracks across the Dakotas into the Ohio Valley. An associated trailing cold front may provide the most significant focus for regional rainfall in several days. However, given that summertime forecasting often depends on mesoscale features below the resolution of numerical guidance, confidence in specific rainfall totals remains low. Confidence is higher regarding the continued cooling trend through the weekend, with high temperatures expected in the mid- 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions continue for the next 24-30 hours as high pressure builds across the region. West winds 3-8kts during daylight hours will become light overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.