textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Dangerous heat will continue into the holiday weekend, with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees each afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect area wide.

- Deep moisture and hot temperatures will contribute to daily thunderstorm chances across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms may produce localized gusty winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Rinse. Repeat. The heat will continue through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South each day. The subtropical ridge will hold firm, anchored over the southeast US, through tomorrow, but will gradually weaken this weekend as the synoptic pattern becomes more zonal as far south as the Central Plains into the OH Valley. As this occurs, temperatures will slowly moderate, with afternoon highs decreasing to 92-95F by Sunday. Dewpoints, however, will remain high during this time (72-76F), maintaining dangerous heat indices through the weekend. A Heat Advisory remains in effect area wide through Saturday evening and may need to be extended into Sunday as well.

Diurnal destabilization due to the deep moisture and strong surface heating will promote the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. This activity will be favored during the mid to late afternoon, but may linger into the evening hours. Point soundings continue to indicate high melting levels, steep low-level lapse rates, and some mid-level dry air, with precipitable water of 1.8 to 2.0 inches. With this in mind, I wouldn't rule out localized damaging wind with the stronger cells, at least through the weekend, along with heavy downpours. All that said, PoPs are generally limited 50% or lower in most areas given the spatial uncertainty of convective coverage.

The subtropical ridge will build over the Southern Rockies heading into early next week as a trough develops over the eastern CONUS. This ridge does not look to become anomalously strong with 500 mb heights topping out only around 595 dam. Depending on where the trough axis sets up between the western ridge and the Bermuda high, the Mid-South will be in the proximity of a northwest flow regime. This will add uncertainty to thunderstorm chances mid to late next week. The good news is that temperatures will be close to climatological norms with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. This will likely allow heat indices to decrease closer to 100F (instead of the recent 105-110F we've been seeing).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail underneath high pressure aloft. There is low confidence in coverage and timing of thunderstorm development this afternoon. Therefore, maintained PROB30 groups at MEM, MKL, and TUP. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds through the period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through early next week. Wind speeds will remain generally light with minimum relative humidity typically at or above 40 percent each day. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.