textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Evening upper air analysis shows an upper-level trough encompassing most of the continental United States, with a cutoff upper-level low located off the central California coast. Surface analysis places a cold front stretching from Wisconsin back to the I-70 corridor in western Missouri and Kansas. Regional WSR- 88D radar trends show the trailing edge of rain showers beginning to depart Monroe County, MS. Late evening temperatures are in the 40s at most locations.

Low stratus and reduced visibilities have developed across the area wake of the earlier rainfall. Visibilities in many locations have already dropped down to one-quarter mile. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire Mid-South through 15Z. The aforementioned cold front over the Central Plains is expected to drop into the Mid-South overnight and eventually move south towards the Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon

The main concern continues to be the development of a significant winter storm that will develop over the Southern Plains and spread east northeast into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys this weekend. Short-term model trends indicate the cutoff upper-level low will be absorbed into a longwave trough over Baja California with southwest upper-level flow developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The 18Z and 00Z model suites indicate mainly dry weather will persist across the Mid-South into Friday afternoon. Thereafter, precipitation is expected to develop as moisture overruns the aforementioned frontal boundary along the coast in a broad region of isentropic ascent. Precipitation types and subsequent amounts remain a challenge, as models continue to wobble the cold air north and south with each run.

Unfortunately, the latest model consensus has been trending a bit warmer in the past couple of model runs. As a result, the precipitation type axis has shifted a bit northwest with model runs with snow amounts trending down and sleet and ice amounts trending up. Model soundings show a very pronounced warm nose aloft in the 850-700 mb layer. This warm layer is sufficient to melt frozen precipitation aloft, causing it to fall as freezing rain across all of north Mississippi, and edge into portions of east Arkansas and portions of West Tennessee near the Mississippi border. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler north of this area into West Tennessee and East Arkansas favoring sleet as the predominant precipitation type with snow and freezing rain mixing in at times. Areas over northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee are likely to experience snow with sleet mixed in at times.

An early look at amounts suggests 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches of ice for north Mississippi. Along the I-40 corridor, expect 2 to 6 inches of snow and sleet accumulation, with less than 0.25 inches of freezing rain. The highest snow totals are currently forecast for northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee for 4-8 inches of snow with an inch or less of sleet. We are holding off on upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning. This decision will wait until additional model data arrives into Thursday morning as precipitation type and amounts remain subject to change. Confidence in winter storm impacts is high (>90 % chance) with moderate confidence (50-70% chance) in precipitation types and amounts. Everyone in the Mid-South should prepare for the dangerous winter weather and expect extremely difficult driving conditions this weekend. Precipitation is expected to come to an end towards Sunday night as a 1044 mb arctic high builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Wintry precipitation combined with the cold airmass will likely necessitate Cold Weather Headlines. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the single digits below zero northwest of I-40, and single digits above zero across the remainder of the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Dense fog and IFR/LIFR CIGs blanket the Mid-South this evening. Guidance suggests a slight improvement in vsbys over the next few hours as a cold front approaches the airspace. Conditions should improve by sunrise with VFR ceilings prevailing after 14Z. Winds will become out of the northeast tonight and settle around 8 kts after sunrise.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Wetting rains and higher humidity values are underway and expected to last through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday night that will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.