textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist into at least the middle of the week. Little rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Tuesday. Expect heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by early next week, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A warm day is on display across the region with current temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s as a 594dam is nearly centered over the Mid-South. With surging dewpoints and height rises, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect across the entire area through tomorrow evening. Despite height rises, peak heating will provide enough lift for a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce localized heavy downpours and gusty winds mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line this afternoon. NBM is notorious for not handling summertime convection very well, therefore isolated to scattered PoPs were added through the afternoon. Instability will wane shortly after sunset resulting in dissipating chances.

By tomorrow, the aforementioned ridge will broaden to around 597dam keeping us hot and drying us out. The current Heat Advisory will need to be extended into at least Wednesday, however, dry air advecting in may result in northeast Mississippi falling just shy of the 105 degree or higher heat index criteria. The extension of this product will be punted to the next forecast package at earliest given uncertainty over northeast Mississippi. Deterministic solutions have heights building to 599dam by late Wednesday and into Thursday with highs spanning the upper 90s to lower 100s through at least Saturday. Despite near record breaking highs, Heat Advisories may not be warranted past Thursday as dry air continues to filter in with persistent ridging. Beginning Thursday, forecast dewpoints span the 60s to lower 70s leading to hot and dry conditions as opposed to hot and humid conditions. This is not great news for ongoing drought concerns as little to no precipitation is expected through the end of the week.

Late Saturday, the upper and surface level patterns become less defined as ensemble members are hinting at persistent ridging beginning to flatten out and Gulf moisture beginning to filter back in. Isolated to scattered rain chances return across the Mid- South with increased moisture and a potential cold front pushing in. Though a lot can change over the coming days, we look to finally cool closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s and a wetter period on the way. One can hope heading into the latter half of September here in the Mid-South.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance of SHRA/TSRA through the afternoon across north MS, but confidence is too low to include any mention for TUP. Winds will be light overnight, shifting to southerly by the end of the current TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Outside of pop-up showers south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line this afternoon, a largely dry period is anticipated through the end of the week. Patchy fog can't be ruled out over north Mississippi, amidst previously saturated soils overnight Tuesday. Twenty-foot winds are expected to be light, and afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to remain above 10% through the period. Beginning tomorrow, marginal to elevated fire weather concerns may exist as minimum relative humidity values drop below 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.