textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger is anticipated across the majority of the Mid-South on Tuesday due to a combination of elevated winds, low humidity, and temperatures in the 80s.

- Warm and dry conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s will continue through Thursday.

- Friday and into the weekend will feature warm and increasingly humid conditions as the weather pattern becomes wet and unsettled.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The latest surface analysis places a broad area of high pressure over the Eastern CONUS. A quasi-stationary boundary was analyzed from a cold front over the Northeast extending west along the TN/KY border back into Kansas City. The front will continue to lift north over the next 24 hours with dry conditions and above normal temperatures across much of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday as both surface and upper level high pressure remain in place. Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal each day with readings in the low to mid 80s. Dry continental air will remain in place on Tuesday marked by dewpoints in the low to mid 40s. We went with a blend of NBM and NBM 50 for dewpoints Tuesday, which yields RH values in the 23 to 29% range. Joint probabilities of RH <=25% and 10 meter wind speeds >=15 mph are pinging in the 20 to 35% range mainly over eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee along the Mississippi River. The rest of the Mid-South will experience RH <= 30% along with 10 hour fuels near the 10% mark. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be issued to address the elevated fire weather danger. Return flow will bring slightly higher moisture into the region for Wednesday and Thursday, diminishing the threat of elevated fire weather danger.

The weather pattern will become unsettled on Friday as a large upper level cutoff low moves into the Northern Plains and upper level southwest flow develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This system will help push a cold front into the Mid- South this weekend. Several perturbations will rotate around the expanding upper low and spawn several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday into early next week. Timing and location of each successive wave remains unclear at this time. Nonetheless, the majority of the Mid-South will become unstable each day as dewpoints climb into the low to mid 60s. Confidence in organized convection remains on the low end, as wind shear is marginal in the 20 to 25 knot range.

The main focus this weekend will be on the much-needed rainfall, which is expected to be heavy at times. LREF guidance depicts PWATs climbing above the 90th percentile Friday through early next week. With a stalled boundary over the region and some degree of upper level support, there is high confidence that heavy rainfall is expected. WPC's 7 Day QPF forecasts depict 1.5 to 2.5 of rainfall through next Monday. Forecasters will continue to monitor the timing and location of these waves.

AC3

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 30 hours as high pressure remains over the airspace. A tight pressure gradient will result in wind gusts up to 25 kts tomorrow. Gusts should drop out by 00Z.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Fire weather concerns will peak on Tuesday as minimum relative humidity values drop to 25-30%. A combination of 10 to 15 mph 20ft winds, RH <30%, and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent will prompt a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement on Tuesday. Increased dewpoints return Wednesday through the end of the week, decreasing fire weather concerns. Wetting rainfall is expected this weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.