textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Saturday afternoon, becoming more widespread across the Mid-South Sunday and Monday. An unsettled weather pattern will likely continue into the middle of next week.

- High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through early next week, increasing to the low to mid 90s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mostly sunny conditions prevail currently across the Mid-South with high temperatures still expected to reach the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon. Humidity levels will begin to creep up this afternoon mainly west of the MS River, so a few locations could feel a bit on the muggier side. Otherwise, dew point temperatures will remain fairly manageable for early June east of the MS River, keeping apparent temperatures similar to our actual temperatures. Overnight, high pressure will continue to drift further to the east, allowing additional moisture to return to the area by Saturday morning. Greatest confidence in any thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon would be west of the MS River and across northwest MS. Coverage is expected to become more scattered across the entire Mid-South by Sunday, as a low pressure system briefly stalls to our northwest. While current 6 hour PoPs are in the 70-90% range, early CAM guidance suggests that coverage will be a bit more scattered with on and off thunderstorms through the day rather than an all-day washout. A similar pattern will continue into Monday and likely Tuesday as the low pressure continues to drift to our north. Total rainfall amounts will generally vary from about half an inch to an inch and a half, but exact locations will depend on where thunderstorms develop. Through the weekend and into early next week, high temperatures will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s.

A more typical, summer-time pattern will likely emerge by the middle of next week, with ensemble guidance coming into a bit more agreement with the late week pattern. This would allow for daily, isolated thunderstorm chances to continue with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across much of the area. If this pattern persists, we may need to watch for some heat headlines by the end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

High pressure continues to dominate over the southeast CONUS, leading to light south winds and VFR conditions for the Mid- South. With moisture advection along the south winds, expect an increase in (mostly mid to high level) cloud cover throughout the day Saturday. There will be a more defined swath of precip surging up from the Gulf Coast Saturday evening, just outside the extended MEM TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns are anticipated for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain around or above 40% through Friday afternoon, with generally light winds. Higher humidity will return over the weekend and continue through next week. Daily, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by Saturday afternoon, with more widespread coverage Sunday and Monday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.