textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Noticeably lower humidity will occur through Thursday, with low temperatures dropping into the middle 60s to low 70s each morning. - Heat and humidity will continue to build each day through the weekend. Rain chances will remain low (less than 15%) before increasing again next week (30% and above).

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Slightly cooler weather continues behind a cold frontal passage yesterday. A large CU field is already forming across the region, but observed and modeled soundings display a strong subsidence inversion above 850 mb will keep the region dry. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows around 70. A surface low could form along the southeastern Atlantic Coastline with could throw a backdoor front our direction into this weekend. However, confidence is still too low regarding the strength of any feature to warrant higher PoPs at this time.

Regardless of the development of a coastal low, remaining high pressure is expected to lead to a gradual increase in temperatures through next weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the middle 90s by Friday. As is customary this time of year, moisture will still be plentiful. Heat indices will therefore begin reaching back into the low 100s as a consequence through the end of the period.

By Monday, PWATs begin to increase as high pressure slides east of the region. Until this point, entrainment will keep widespread diurnal precipitation limited in coverage to non-existent. Nonetheless, NBM PoPs respond to this shift in moisture by bringing 30% region-wide Monday, increasing each afternoon through Wednesday. Heat indices could be reduced to below 100 F with widespread rain, lending some uncertainty to the accuracy of the current heat index forecast. Regardless, a humid, warm, and potentially rainy start to next week is expected.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions throughout the current TAF period. Light, northwesterly winds will become variable overnight, before settling back to north/northwest tomorrow.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 40% with light 20 foot winds. Highs will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s with no precipitation expected.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.