textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Lower humidity is expected through Wednesday behind a weak frontal boundary with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

- A cold front will bring slight chances of rain late Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will moderate a bit but remain well above normal.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly along and south of a cold front in north Mississippi and east- central Arkansas. A very moist and strongly unstable air mass is in place across the region, featuring PW values over 2 inches and SBCAPE over 3,000 J/kg. CIN is weakening as temperatures warm, and most of the area should reach convective temperatures around 97 degrees by 1 PM. DCAPE values from 1,200-1,400 J/kg will make strong downdrafts very likely this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

The aforementioned cold front is currently moving southwestward across the Mid-South. This abnormal motion is the result of high pressure over the Great Lakes and a deep trough along the East Coast, resulting in northerly flow across the Ohio and Middle to Lower Mississippi River valleys. The air mass behind the front is highly modified but continental in nature, so it will not result in much of a temperature change as it passes. However, a wind shift and slightly lower relative humidity may be noticeable across much of the region late this afternoon and especially tomorrow. The lower dew points and relative humidity should keep heat indices below advisory criteria (above 105 degrees) on Monday despite afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 90s across most of the area. The coolest high temperatures tomorrow are expected near the Tennessee River, where areas around Camden and Paris should top out near 91 degrees.

A ridge currently over the Plains will rapidly expand across the central and lower Mississippi River Valley late tomorrow into Tuesday. As a result, temperatures will rebound. Additionally, southeasterly winds will return to the region, leading to increasing relative humidity. Another round of Heat Advisories will likely be needed, initially in the Delta portions of east- central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi on Tuesday, expanding across much of the region on Wednesday.

The highest chance of widespread rainfall seen in quite a while is expected to return to the Mid-South on Thursday. A ridge across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. will flatten out late Tuesday through Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that a cold front associated with a deep low tracking across eastern Canada will approach the Mid-South on Thursday. Details regarding rainfall amounts and potential for strong to severe storms will come into better focus over the next couple of days, but overall expect slightly cooler temperatures and a fair chance of precipitation Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

SHRAs and TSRAs continue to dissipate as heating wanes. Outflow boundaries will temporarily impact winds at MEM this evening, otherwise expect light northeast winds areawide into Labor Day with VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Conditions behind a weak cold front Sunday will result in a drier and slightly cooler airmass. Drier air will linger across the Mid-South through midweek, but trend slightly higher each day. No Fire Weather concerns are anticipated.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.