textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Record-breaking temperatures will continue into Friday, accompanied by increased humidity.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday night into Saturday, focused near a slow-moving cold front. A marginal to slight risk for severe storms is in place through early Saturday evening.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next week. Rainfall totals will range from 2 to 4 inches.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

00Z upper air analysis places an upper level ridge over the Atlantic Ocean with an upper-level trough over the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft is present in between these two synoptic features from the Southern Plains up into the Mid-Atlantic States. Late evening surface analysis places a quasi-stationary boundary from the Ohio Valley back into a surface low in eastern Colorado, with a dryline extending south into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and West Texas. A mild night is occurring across the Mid-South with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s and surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s.

A mild and humid pattern will continue across the Mid-South on Friday with near-record to record high temperatures expected again across the area. Latest HREF guidance indicates a medium to high chance (>70%) for low stratus to develop and spread across the area Friday morning. These low clouds are expected to mix out by Friday afternoon. Short-term model soundings indicate a low chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during Friday afternoon peak heating across portions of northeast Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Confidence remains low (<10% chance) for severe thunderstorms in the weakly sheared environment.

Better chances for rain will arrive late Friday night into early Saturday evening as a series of shortwave troughs move through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will result in lower heights across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary will sink south into the region this weekend. CAM solutions suggest multicellular convection will congeal into bowing line segments with damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat. Favorable curvature in the hodographs and sufficient 0-3 and 0-1 km storm relative helicities indicate the risk of embedded tornadoes within line segments. Heavy rainfall is also anticipated, especially with any thunderstorms that begin to train over the same areas as precipitable water values will be around 1.5 inches (99th percentile for March).

Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into Sunday across areas mostly south of I-40 as the front washes out over the region. Long term ensemble model solutions indicate a cutoff upper-level low near Baja California being picked up by a northern stream trough towards mid to late next week. LREF ensemble joint probabilities suggest a 40 percent chance of a severe thunderstorm threat on Wednesday especially south of I-40. Uncertainties still remain with the timing of the cutoff upper- level low being reabsorbed within the mean flow and the quality of the parameter space this far out. Nonetheless, this will continue to be monitored in subsequent forecasts over the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An MVFR deck of low stratus is surging up along a warm front as of 12Z, which will intermittently impact all terminals except MKL over the next few hours. Similarly, CAMs are in good agreement on very sporadic SHRA this afternoon associated with the warm front, warranting a few periods of VCSH. As the surface low and its cold front approach today, a tightening pressure gradient will increase south winds to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through sunset. The biggest impact for all terminals will be just after 12Z tomorrow with a line of TSRA along the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. Surface winds will occasionally gust above 15 mph each afternoon, but daily wetting rain chances will mitigate any fire weather threat.

CLIMATE

Climate Records - High/High Min 3/6/26 MEM 81 2022 66 2022 MKL 80 2022 67 2022 JBR 76 2022 66 2022 TUP 85 2022 63 2022

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.