textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue today amid low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Areawide rain chances return Saturday afternoon and persist through the Halloween weekend.

- More substantial rainfall will arrive towards the middle of next week as we move into a wet and warm weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry conditions look to come to an end in the Mid-South right on schedule as we wrap up our climatologically driest month of the year. Unfortunately, the arrival of rain coincides with Halloween.

Surface high pressure over the Appalachians will weaken and shift off to the north today. Meanwhile, a deepening trough along the West Coast will result in the amplification of a ridge over the Plains. The latter feature will expand today, extending into the lower Mississippi River Valley. As a result, dry conditions will persist and despite increasing cloud cover, temperatures will be as warm or slightly warmer than yesterday. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue today. Expect highs in the low 80s with afternoon RH in the upper 20s to low 30s. Late tonight into Saturday, the ridge will shift north and the trough along the west coast will move onshore, resulting in strengthening southwest flow across the Mid-South.

Southern stream energy will result in our first period of widespread rainfall late Saturday and continue into Sunday. As the subtropical jet strengthens over the Southwest, a shortwave will approach the Mid-South tonight. At the surface, southerly flow will strengthen, slowly ushering moisture back into the region. It will take 12 hours or so for appreciable moisture to make it into the region but increasing high and midlevel clouds will be an indicator of things to come. After the initial main shortwave tonight or early Saturday, a series of weaker disturbances will continue to track out of the Southern Plains/Texas across the Mid-South. Light rain should increase in coverage during the afternoon hours. Overnight, a strengthening jet and marginal instability will result in heavier rainfall and maybe even a few embedded thunderstorms. The potential for heavier rain and thunderstorms will continue early Sunday, but diminish by midday. Expected rainfall totals late Saturday through Sunday are up to one half of an inch in east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, increasing to up to an inch in northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River in west Tennessee.

A Colorado Low will slowly shift over the Plains early in the week and approach the middle to lower Mississippi River Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Consensus now has a main low moving into Minnesota early Tuesday, but a secondary low is expected farther, approaching the middle Mississippi River Valley Wednesday. Exact location and timing of the low remains uncertain, but a wetter pattern is expected for most of the work week. Rainfall totals next week have trended higher. The NBM now indicates widespread 1.25 to 2.0 inch totals with up to 2.75 inches in the Delta area south of Memphis. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm next week, featuring highs in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist today and tonight. High clouds will lower late tomorrow at JBR and MEM and eventually at MKL and TUP beyond the TAF cycle. Light southeast winds tonight will become more easterly tomorrow. Wind speed is expected to remain below 5kts at all TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

One more day of fire weather concerns today. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue as a dry air mass remains over the region with afternoon RH's will be in the upper 20s to low 30 percent range. Ten hour fuel moisture remains around 10 percent. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued from noon through 7 pm. 20-foot winds will be below 10 mph, precluding higher fire danger.

Wetting rains are forecast to return to the region this weekend with the most beneficial rains falling over northern Mississippi and west Tennessee. Additional rainfall chances are expected into the middle of next week where current rainfall accumulation forecasts call for 1.00" - 2.00" areawide between next Monday and Wednesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.