textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds are expected on Thursday, particularly along and west of the Mississippi River, where a Wind Advisory is in effect.

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, with a primary threat of damaging winds and secondary threats of large hail, and a brief tornado, remains in effect Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal) will continue through Friday, with higher rain chances arriving Friday into Saturday with a cold front. Temperatures will edge slightly below normal for early next week, behind this front.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A relatively calm night is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and gusty south/southeast winds at the surface. A stationary boundary is currently extending from southeastern Kansas through southwestern Pennsylvania with a pretty tight pressure gradient over the region. Looking at latest radar scans, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is strewn along this and a few other boundaries, extending from Kansas City, MO through San Angelo, TX. This line will push east, toward our forecast area by the early afternoon hours.

As this line edges closer, it looks to break apart into more of a cluster of thunderstorms as a surface low, currently over eastern Colorado, lifts northeast. Digging into the parameter space here in the Mid-South, in accordance with forecast soundings, SBCAPE values peak at around 800-1200 J/kg, 0- 6km bulk wind shear values at around 25-35 kts, and PWAT values of around 1.5", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Though a limiting factor, forecast mid-level lapse rates are around 5.7 C/km, potentially inhibiting robust convective activity. Regardless, a Marginal Risk for severe weather exists over far Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with a primary hazard of damaging winds and secondary hazards of a brief tornado and large hail. Best timing for potential severe weather Thursday will be in the afternoon into early evening hours.

One thing we know for sure, surface winds Thursday will be gusty as the pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned stationary boundary and surface low will continue to tighten. Southwest winds will be elevated across the Mid-South, though areas along and west of the Mississippi River will see the strongest sustained winds and wind gusts. NBM probabilities are peaking around 80-98% for sustained winds 25 mph or greater primarily over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and in portions of far northwest Tennessee. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 9AM and continue through 8PM Thursday. It will likely be extended into portions of far northwest Tennessee. Be sure to secure down any loose items.

Elevated southwest winds and a decent swath of WAA will keep above temperatures, in the 80s, across the area through at least Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also increase as we move into Friday afternoon and evening as a closed upper-level low begins to push into the Upper Mississippi Valley late Friday into early Saturday. Saturday looks to be more of a washout as the aforementioned upper-low and a colocated surface low pushes further east, near the Upper-Great Lakes region. An attendant cold front will also begin pushing into the Middle Mississippi valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to around 80- 100% Saturday. Severe weather chances both Friday and Saturday are slim to none as we look to remain largely capped heights begin to build. Storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday morning will be nothing to write home about with most of the area forecast to get around 1.5" with locally higher amounts.

Temperatures behind this cold front will take a dive with highs in the 60s both Sunday and Monday. Chilly mornings will also present early next week with readings in the 40s across the Mid- South. A few areas, especially along the Tennessee and Kentucky border, could see lows in the 30s Monday morning. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm by Tuesday as northwest flow begins to move over the region. Dry weather is also expected beyond Saturday.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

LLWS will impact all TAF sites except TUP overnight. Southwest surface winds will also remain gusty, up to 25kts, overnight. Elevated winds will persist into the day with gusts in excess of 30 kts at JBR/MEM. Confidence in precise timing and location of precipitation Thursday remains low, though showers will likely impact JBR, MEM, and MKL by the mid-day hours. Current VFR conditions will lower to MVFR over the next few hours, lifting back to VFR shortly after sunrise.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period as minimum relative humidity values remain above 35%. A few stray showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Thursday, though greater wetting rain potential exists late Friday and into Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier conditions will follow this cold front Sunday and into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018- 026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.