textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- A significant, potentially historic winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning Friday afternoon with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

As of 11 AM, a slow moving cold front is over central to southeast Missouri. This front has been able to pull enough moisture for stratiform rain along and south of the I-40 corridor. Expect this activity to continue throughout the day as the front edges closer and crosses the area. The same frontal boundary is anticipated to stall around Monroe County, MS. This will keep low-end lingering rain chances across north Mississippi through the overnight hours into Thursday morning before a reinforcing front is able to push this frontal boundary out of the way.

All eyes are on this weekend as a significant, potentially historic, winter storm sets up. A deep, longwave trough will absorb an upper-level low near the Baja of California and fuel moisture ahead of the attendant cold front. Fuel moisture and lift from the front is going to set up a mixed bag of wintry precipitation across the entire Mid-South. The LREF and its ensemble members have all three winter precipitation types prevalent on soundings. Areas north of the I-40 corridor remain well below the 0C isotherm, warranting a heavy snow threat. A generalized area in a line from Forest City, AR, through Southaven MS, to Salitillo, TN remains the mixed bag of precipitation. Though, soundings in this area favor sleet as the primary precipitation type. Models appear to be handling this sleet threat very poorly and continue to underdo/overhype snow and ice accumulations respectively. Probabilities of accumulated snowfall greater than 3" remain above 40% from Corinth, MS and northwards with highest probabilities in northeast Arkansas. Probabilities of accumulated snowfall greater than 6" are around 55% or higher from Memphis and northwards. While probabilities begin to drop to medium (30-50%) along the KY/TN and AR/MO borders for accumulations around 9", there remains at least a 40% chance of accumulations greater than 10" in northeast Arkansas. Any sleet will highly skew snowfall totals across the region.

Most of north Mississippi is at risk for a significant ice storm as soundings have a deep warm nose from 700-850mb. By the end of this storm, most of north Mississippi has a greater than 50% chance of 0.50" of ice accumulation. Even more concerning is probabilities for greater than 0.75" of ice continue to hover around 40-45% in northeast Mississippi. Ice accumulations of this amount lead to impassable roadways, tree damage and weather- related power outages that can last for several days. Prepare for ways to stay warm during power outages and ensure you have enough food and water as travel will be extremely difficult to impossible.

The aforementioned areas of most likely precipitation types and amounts are still subject to change. The particular highlighted areas are favoring the trough taking on quite a tilt as it creeps up the Delta. The tilt, however, will continue to feed that moisture increasing PW values well above climatology for this time of year. High liquid precipitation forecasts will result in wet, fluffy snow accumulations across the north. The snow will almost take on a convective profile as it trains across the area continuing to accumulate snow, sleet, and ice.

By Monday morning, all will dry out, but bitterly cold air will prevail as 1030+mb surface high encompasses the area. Sunday and Monday will be brutally cold. An Extreme Cold Watch/Warning may be necessary as the arctic air governs temperatures early next week. Snow pack will also prohibit much warming across the area, meaning chances of above freezing temperatures may not arise until the middle of next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light showers continue to move across the airspace, with a deck of MVFR to IFR cigs. IFR cigs will continue to push across the airspace, with all locations falling to IFR by the afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Visibilities will remain impacted as well as -SHRA moves through with BR following. Rainfall should begin to move out by this evening, with low cigs (potentially dipping to LIFR) and patchy to locally dense fog developing overnight across the airspace. Conditions will begin to improve near sunrise, with VFR conditions returning for everywhere but TUP by mid-morning behind the frontal boundary. As for winds, SW winds around 7 to 8 kts will continue through 23Z, becoming light and variable overnight, before settling back to NE by tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Wetting rains and higher humidity values are underway and expected to last through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday that will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.