textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Lower humidity and moderate temperatures will prevail across the Mid-South through Thursday, following the passage of a cold front early today. Increased humidity will return by Friday, and temperatures warm slightly above normal.

- Rain chances will return this weekend and persist into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will generally favor the daytime hours.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The Midsouth will experience a much anticipated break from the recent hot, humid and active weather following the passage of a cold front early Tuesday morning. High temperatures will average 1-3 degrees below normal through Thursday, accompanied by dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The passage of the cold front will be aided by the deepening of a longwave trough along the eastern seaboard. This trough will serve as the eastern leg of a weakening Omega blocking pattern. As we move through the midweek periods, the upper trough will lift offshore, allowing an upstream ridge to build to the MS River Valley. 500mb heights will amplify to around 590dam on Thursday, before the ridge center lifts east on Friday.

Attention will then turn to a slow-moving upper low over the central and southern plains. A plume of 2 inch PWATs will move north through the Midsouth by Saturday afternoon. This tropical moisture plume will persist through the middle of next week, as weak upper trough remains over much of the MS River Valley. This will maintain daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. With PWATs nearing 2.25 inches (above the 90th percentile) for multiple days, heavy rainfall may be a concern next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Drier northeast flow is spreading across the region today in the wake of a cold front. VFR conditions will prevail, although a brief period of post-frontal MVFR ceilings will linger early today in west TN. Northeast winds will increase to 9-12 knots today with gusts approaching 20 knots, weakening to 5-10 knots overnight. AMD NOT SKED at JBR due to missing observation.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Dry conditions will prevail through Thursday, with moderate humidity. Early summer-like heat and humidity will return this weekend and persist into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend and continue into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.