textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- More seasonable temperatures around 90 degrees and lower humidity levels will persist through the end of the week. Heat indices are expected to creep at or above 105 degrees primarily in the Delta Region tomorrow warranting a Heat Advisory in these areas.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm chances return to the Mid-South Friday and will linger into Saturday with a potential localized heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Wednesday's cold front has finally cleared the Mid-South with cooler dewpoints (in the low to mid 70s) filtering in behind it. Highs today will be mostly in the low 90s with heat indices topping out at around 100F. The Delta Region, our hotspot where dewpoints will likely linger in the mid 70s this afternoon, has the potential to reach 105+F today, however, confidence was not quite high enough in moisture pulling to issue a Heat Advisory in this area. We're also looking largely dry, though, primarily diurnally driven, pop-up showers over north Mississippi can't be ruled out this afternoon as PWATs remain around 1.8" in this area.

Our dry spell will be very short-lived as by tomorrow a positively tilted trough will begin to push east into the Upper Mississippi Valley from the Midwest. This trough will also push us, here in the Mid-South, further into a northwest flow regime aloft. As this system begins to push in, forecast PWATs begin to surge to 2.2"+, nearing the 99th percentile for this time of the year. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase west of the Mississippi River by the early afternoon hours. An attendant cold front will also extend from the aforementioned trough and begin to influence the Mid-South by tomorrow evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will become numerous by the evening hours. Ahead of this front and upper-trough, a 30-40 kt low-level jet will begin to kick in, opening a window for a very conditional threat for a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon to early evening hours. Digging into the parameter spacing for this threat, forecast soundings are hinting at around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts of effective shear, DCAPE of around 500, mid-level lapse rates at around 5.7 C/km, and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Precipitation may not line up with this environment, however, if storms are able to dip into this marginal instability they could have enough energy to form a tall enough updraft to produce damaging winds. However, the overall confidence in this threat remains very low.

With increased moisture comes increased dewpoints. As dewpoints increase tomorrow, heat indices in the Delta Region are expected to exceed 105F. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this region valid from 11AM through 8PM. NBM and HREF probabilities are around 50% of exceeding 105F north and east of this advisory resulting in a potential extension in the next forecast issuance. Despite yesterday's cold front, summer heat continues to linger.

As the aforementioned cold front edges closer to the Mid-South in combination with surging PWATs, by late Friday into Saturday, a localized heavy rainfall may exist. Though, forecast rainfall amounts are equating to less than an inch across our area, localized higher amounts are anticipated. Confidence in the overall flash flooding threat overnight Saturday remains <30%, but remains something to keep an eye on given our environment.

Behind Saturday's cold front, cooler air will filter in leading to a pleasant August day Sunday with highs in the 80s. A few scattered showers will linger mainly along the Tennessee River Sunday as our area continues to be influenced by troughing over the southern Ohio River Valley. By mid-week, we'll begin to slowly warm back up as ensembles are hinting at the aforementioned trough pushing further east and ridging slowly pushing into our area from the west. However, dewpoints look to remain in the low to mid 70s, hopefully keeping humidity levels at bay as temperatures begin to increase into the latter half of the week.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. NE winds will veer, becoming S/SW by the end of the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday ahead of an approaching cold front; however, timing remains uncertain due to model discrepancies.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ048-049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010>012- 020-021.

TN...None.