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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- A Wind Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the entire Mid-South late this afternoon through this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds and brief tornadoes, with a secondary threat of large hail.

- Freeze Warnings and Watches are in effect for the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday mornings.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER

Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A line of storms is quickly developing along the cold front across western AR. Strong southerly winds with frequent gusts over 40 mph are advecting higher dewpoints northward into the area. Dewpoints will continue to climb into the lower 60s across the Delta ahead of the front, perhaps reaching 63-64F. As the airmass destabilizes MLCAPE values are starting to climb and now sit in the 500-1000 J/kg range across eastern AR. A 90 knot mid- level is punching into the Red River Valley as the upper trough continues to intensify. Lift across the front will continue to strengthen over the next several hours, which will lead to more vigorous convection along the cold front as it heads east. The latest WoFS is showing MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg by 22z across eastern AR with hints of discrete cells ahead of the main line in the 21z to 00z time frame, merging with the main line around 00z as it crosses the MS River. 0-1km helicity values look very impressive at 250+ m2/s2 with sig tor (0-1km) parameter values over 2, which could lead to a strong tornado if these discrete cells develop ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A 992 mb low pressure system was located over northern Missouri at noon with a cold front extending into the Red River Valley. The low-level jet ranges from 40 to 55 kts across the area, and the surface pressure gradient has tightened from 6 mb across the forecast area at 2 am last night to about 10 mb late this morning. As a result, surface winds have picked up considerably with gusts over 40 mph becoming common over NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area through 7 am Monday.

A powerful 100 kt mid-level jet is exiting the Rockies this morning and moving into the Southern Plains. This will result in the rapid deepening of the upper trough across the center of the country. The upper trough will take on a negative tilt as it approaches the Mid-South this evening, which will result in very strong lift across the region as the flow aloft becomes increasingly diffluent. As the lift strengthens over the frontal zone, storms will develop across western Arkansas early this afternoon and then race eastward. Meanwhile, the strong southerly winds will be advecting in increasingly unstable air. Temps will warm into the 70s ahead of the front, and the latest CAMs bring lower 60s dewpoints into the entire Delta region by late this afternoon. MLCAPE values should reach at least 750 to 1250 J/kg across the Delta region as well, with some 12z CAMs even more aggressive. Expect the QLCS to intensify as it approaches this instability axis and the upper lift strengthens with the deepening upper trough. There is some concern that a few discrete cells could form ahead of the line at the beginning of the event, mainly across the Delta and along the MS River. A few CAMs are hinting at this since the cap appears to be weaker than models have depicted over the last few days. Also, if the instability overperforms and is more like the 12z HRRR with its MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg then discrete cells become more of a possibility. However, the environment is most favorable right ahead of the front, and anything that does develop will likely quickly merge with the line. If these cells do develop, they represent an all-hazards threat with the possibility of a strong tornado.

The line of storms will race across the Mid-South, likely taking about 6 hours once it enters NE AR until it leaves NE MS. The storms should enter NE AR around 4-5 pm and exit NE MS around 10- 11 pm. The main threat from this line is damaging winds. Strong wind shear combined with decent instability will result in a vigorous line of storms that will access the very strong winds aloft. Steep mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km and dry air aloft will help provide fuel for strong downdrafts. Bowing segments will likely have corridors of significant winds (75 mph+) in this situation. Embedded spin-up tornadoes are also a concern with this QLCS. Hodographs are favorable for these types of tornadoes with good low-level veering and 0-1km helicity values around 250 m2/s2. Look for these with bowing segments or breaks in the line. The parameter space does support the possibility of a strong (EF2+) QLCS tornado. Mesovortices that produce these spin- ups can also produce corridors of significant wind damage. Finally, there is also a threat of large hail up to the size of ping pong balls, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River, where the instability is maximized late this afternoon and early in the evening.

After the front moves through, gusty west and northwest winds will continue to gust at 30 to 40 mph overnight. A few snowflakes may fly as the precipitation ends, but nothing significant is expected. Much colder air will rush in with temperatures at or below freezing across most of the forecast area by Monday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect across most of the area. Monday will be very cold and about 20-25 degrees below normal. Arctic high pressure will settle over the region Monday night/Tuesday morning with a hard freeze over the entire Mid- South. A Freeze Watch continues for Monday night/Tuesday morning. Lows will be deep into the 20s with perhaps some teens in the colder spots.

A warming trend will get started Tuesday, though another Freeze Warning will likely be needed across eastern sections on Wednesday morning. Temperatures will warm into the 70s by the end of the week and into the lower 80s next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong gradient winds will continue ahead of a cold front. Gusts could reach up to 35-40 KTS. Line of TSRAs will develop along the cold front and move through the TAF sites between 23-04Z. An AWW may become necessary at KMEM with the winds expected with the TSRAs. Meanwhile, CIGS/VSBYS will deteriorate with the line. MVFR CIGS will then likely linger into the overnight at KJBR and KMEM and into the morning at KMKL and KTUP. North winds of 15-18 KTS sustained with gusts up to 25-28 KTS will occur behind the front through the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of days. A widespread wetting rain is expected late this afternoon through this evening as a line of thunderstorms moves across the Mid-South, followed by much colder temperatures for early next week. Above normal temperatures will return by late week, however, relative humidity will remain in the 40 percent range.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MSZ001>015- 020>022.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.