textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 536 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- A reinforcing cold front will produce below average temperatures this weekend, featuring highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Portions of West Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel have a 50 to 60 percent chance of freezing temperatures occurring Sunday morning.

- Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 952 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A reinforcing cold front will continue across the Mid-South overnight, bringing cooler temperatures Friday into the upcoming weekend. Saturday's highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, spanning the mid 50s to low 60s. The first instance of freezing temperatures this season will occur Sunday morning north of I-40. The latest NBM probabilities show a 50 to 60 percent chance of temperatures reaching 32 degrees in this area. Below normal temperatures will fade as we move into next week due to a developing upper level low over Texas. This feature will bring southerly winds back to the Mid-South, increasing daily highs to the mid 60s and low 70s.

Despite long term guidance hinting at a few shortwave passes by the middle of next week, no widespread rainfall is forecast. The main reason behind this is lackluster moisture availability within the atmospheric column. For now, expect next week to feature near-normal temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery indicates a large, southward-advancing MVFR strato-cu deck extending across southeast Missouri into northwest Tennessee. High confidence exists in MVFR flight categories impacting JBR and MKL through late morning, where low-level moisture remains trapped beneath a shallow inversion. Due to lingering uncertainty regarding the southern extent of the stratus deck, MEM will maintain a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings through mid-morning before transitioning to VFR. Surface winds will remain out of the north across all terminals throughout the TAF period.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 952 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Friday will feature a frontal passage, bringing slightly drier air and cooler temperatures. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20- ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.