textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Dry weather will persist through at least Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm above normal this weekend.

- Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- A freeze is expected for portions of the Mid-South north of I-40 Sunday night, and area wide Monday night.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Cool high pressure is quickly moving to the Atlantic seaboard this morning as gusty southwest winds develop and bring milder air into the forecast area. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 50s and will top out in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. A system moving through the Great Lakes will push a weak cold front into the area tonight. This front will stall across the area tonight and, aside from a few clouds, produce no sensible weather. Lows will drop into the 40s tonight.

The stalled front will quickly lift north as a warm front on Saturday. As southerly winds redevelop, temperatures will climb into the 70s. Saturday night will be mild with lows in the 50s as southerly flow strengthens.

During Saturday night, a major upper-level trough will be exiting the Rockies with rapid cyclogenesis across the Plains. By 12z Sunday, a 990 mb surface low will likely be located near SW Iowa with a strong cold front extending south into the Southern Plains. The pressure gradient will be strengthening across the Mid-South, leading to increasingly gusty southerly winds. By late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon, expect frequent gusts over 40 mph, especially along and west of the MS River, with particular emphasis on the Bootheel and NE Arkansas. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed.

Sunday will be warm with highs in the 70s, and dewpoints will be increasing through the day in advance of the cold front. As the system continues to deepen throughout the day and becomes negatively tilted a strongly forced line of storms (QLCS) will develop along the cold front as it pushes across Arkansas. There is an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

There is a fairly strong cap in place ahead of the cold front, which should preclude any activity in advance of the front in the warm sector. As the upper trough continues to deepen, the mid- level winds really intensify with a 125 kt mid-level jet punching into the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a broad 55-60 kt low-level jet will be in place ahead of the cold front. As the QLCS pushes quickly through the area, expect it to tap these very strong winds aloft at times, resulting in damaging winds, perhaps significant (75 mph+) in some locations. The latest RRFS also has DCAPE values of 1000 J/kg immediately ahead of the line, which would support strong downdrafts.

Along with the damaging wind threat, there will be the threat for QLCS tornadoes with the bowing segments or where breaks in the line of storms occur. Low-level hodographs are favorable with good low-level veering and 0-1km helicity values over 300 m2/s2. The tornado threat will also be modulated by the amount of instability. SBCAPEs climb into the 500-1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. Latest runs do advect dewpoints > 60F north ahead of the cold front, though the moisture layer is not of very high quality (shallow), which would result in high LCLs and lower tornado potential. However, we are still 72 hours away from the event, and the CAMs will soon shed more light on these mesoscale details.

Timing is coming into focus. Storms could enter NE AR as early as 4 pm on Sunday and exit NE MS as late as 2 am on Monday. It will be a quick-moving system that will likely move from one side of the forecast area in a little over 6 hours.

Much colder air will rush in behind the front with gusty NW winds. Precipitation may change over to a brief period of light snow before ending, though no significant impacts are expected. There is a 30-40% chance of a dusting of snow across NE AR, MO Bootheel, NW TN, and along the TN River. Much below normal temperatures will be the rule early next week. Expect freezing temps north of I-40 on Monday, areawide on Tuesday, and east of the MS River on Wednesday. Tuesday morning will be the most impactful with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Freeze warnings will likely be needed due to the early start to spring this year and the amount of blooming that has already occurred.

Cold high pressure will shift east midweek, and return flow will set up. Temperatures will climb back above normal by the end of the week with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR CIGs will prevail through the period. Gusty winds up to 22 kts are anticipated through the late afternoon. Overnight, winds will go light to calm. No major aviation concerns this period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will average between 30-40% this afternoon and between 40-50% Saturday. Fuel moisture remains high from Wednesday's rainfall which will mitigate any fire weather concerns over the next couple of days. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along another cold front Sunday night.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.