textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s starting Wednesday which will last through the end of the week.

- Rain chances (70% chance or greater) will return Thursday with a cold front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, but severe weather chances are very low (less than 5%).

- Dry and warm conditions return Friday and will last through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Morning surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure over the northern Gulf alongside a surface low over the northern Plains/Midwest. Since the high pressure system has moved south of the region, southerlies have returned and are expected to allow the region to warm both today and tomorrow with highs in the 50s and 60s. Pressure gradient winds will also strengthen throughout this afternoon, particularly across the Mississippi River Delta and northwest portions of West Tennessee. NBM mean sustained winds do reach between 23 - 25 mph this afternoon, which has prompted a Wind Advisory through 9 p.m. CST tonight with gusts anywhere between 30 and 40 mph. Winds are expected to fall below our advisory threshold for sustained winds (25 mph) thereafter, but a significant majority of HREF members produce and expand wind gusts of up to 40 mph past 9 p.m., which could result in the expansion and extension of the Wind Advisory through tonight. However, NBM wind gusts follow a different pattern, remaining confined to areas already within the Wind Advisory and have verified quite well so far. Therefore, the decision was made to not make any changes to the current Wind Advisory in this forecast package, but similar to yesterday, trends will need to be monitored going into this evening.

Through Wednesday, southwesterly WAA will continue to bring higher moisture content into the region. Aloft, the upper ridge will have completely broken down and retrograded westward with low-amplitude troughing over the eastern CONUS. A few embedded jet streaks or shortwaves will propagate through the trough. A more amplified shortwave embedded within the broader flow will eject from the Rockies Wednesday evening, tracking towards the Mid-South/Ohio Valley regions into Thursday. A weak surface low will follow the favorable jet dynamics within the jet streak aloft and make its way into the region early Thursday with an attending cold front. With multiple days of air mass modification having already happened, PWATs of around an inch will be in place, which is expected to allow for rain chances to increase along the front as it makes its way through the region Thursday. PoPs increase through early Thursday morning up to 60% - 70% across Western Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi, increasing in coverage through Thursday afternoon.

Most short range guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAM) as of this morning does develop a region of MUCAPE ahead of the front across West Tennessee, portions of eastern Arkansas, and north Mississippi through Thursday afternoon. So, as the front swings south through the area, some thunderstorm development is anticipated. Maximum MUCAPE values range between 500 - 1000 J/kg during the morning and afternoon hours with most profiles remaining elevated. Effective bulk shear values do have quite a bit of spread, ranging from 20 knots up to 50 knots. The average is somewhere between 30 knots - 40 knots, which would support consistent updraft organization. Therefore, a broken line of storms capable of, at most, marginal hail and wind could occur Thursday.

The front will continue to travel south after clearing the area Thursday night and Friday. The front is not forecast to bring significantly cooler air and highs will rebound back into the 60s Friday. Further upper height rises behind the shortwave trough will then continue to warm the region through the weekend with highs in the 60s and low 70s that are forecast to extend through the end of the period. Southerlies will bring some moisture back in the meantime, which has allowed for the NBM to increase PoPs (25% - 40%) Monday and Tuesday along a boundary in the northern half of the region. However, there is uncertainty in the evolution of any surface features this far into the forecast and changes to PoPs should be anticipated in future forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail into tonight, and MVFR ceilings developing at TAF sites Wednesday morning as low level moisture increases across the Lower Mississippi Valley. HREF probabilities increase to around 50 percent for ceilings below 1kft late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence wasn't high enough to include IFR ceilings in the 18Z TAF set. Gusty south winds will persist with LLWS expected tonight at all sites as 2 kft winds increase to around 50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dry conditions prevail as an Arctic air mass remains in place across the Mid-South. Expect minimum relative humidity values to bottom out in the 20-30% range today with elevated 20 ft winds between 10 to 15 knots. Southerly flow will gradually advect moisture back into the region by Wednesday with RH above 40 percent through Thursday. Thursday will be the next chance for wetting rains as a cold front passes through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.