textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected as early as Saturday afternoon and may continue into the overnight hours Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern and heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- An unsettled pattern persists through next week ahead of another cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A few showers have developed near sunrise, mainly south of the I- 40 corridor. This trend will likely continue through the morning, with little impacts expected. Otherwise, a rather warm day is still on tap across the Mid-South with high temperatures surging into the low to mid 90s by the afternoon. After some internal collaboration, opted to issue a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern AR and into the MS delta mainly for this afternoon where heat index values could reach 105 or higher. While there are some lower probabilities further east, any early convection or convection this afternoon could play spoiler so did not include those additional counties. As for our severe weather threat for today, the Slight Risk (2/5) area was expanded further into the Mid-South, covering generally our northern two rows of counties and the Marginal Risk (1/5) was extended to the TN/MS state line. While confidence is generally still low with respect to timing, if the threat materializes, damaging wind gusts remain the main concern. Overnight guidance still remains a bit spread on timing, but the most favorable solution at this point would be the potential for two rounds: one this afternoon into the evening and another overnight into Sunday morning. If the afternoon/evening threat materializes, the overnight round would likely be not as impactful. However, if the earlier threat does not materialize this could open the door for a more potent overnight round. Anything that develops today will be seen ahead of time to our northwest, so this will be something to watch through the rest of the day.

CMA

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across the Mid- South as a stalled frontal boundary remains kinked across northwest Tennessee and into central Arkansas. This front will wiggle slightly south through the night before continuing its ascent north early Saturday morning. A few WAA advection showers may initiate along the leading edge of the boundary, but generally dry conditions are expected until tomorrow afternoon. An MCS will take a dive across northern portions of the region tomorrow afternoon.

Ahead of this MCS, low to medium (50% or less) probabilities of severe weather ingredients exist. The higher probabilities (30- 50% range) exist along the KY/TN border around 4 PM. The GFS and HRRR models are much more aggressive with this activity with over 2000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear is a bit higher than previous days with around 30kts across northwest TN. A damaging wind threat could emerge tomorrow afternoon with 60-65 mph gusts as the main concern. A cold front will trail shortly behind the MCS bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night. Current CAMs have the better forcing heading towards middle TN, but there is a possibility of another round of strong storms across the same area. The cold front will continue to sink southeast in the early hours on Sunday. This front will stall out briefly across middle MS on Monday bringing lingering rain chances to southeast AR and north MS. Northern portions of the area should be mostly dry on Monday and for most of the day on Tuesday. Monday will be a bit cooler with below normal highs in the mid 70s and low 80s.

Broad troughing from Canada across most of the central CONUS will aim another cold front at the Mid-South by midweek. Timing of the frontal passage, however, continues to change each subsequent model run. Previous days had this front crossing the area on Wednesday, where joint probabilities of severe weather ingredients peak for the week between 40-60%. This model sweep has the front passing through on Thursday before stalling out along the I-40 corridor. This will be something to keep an eye on for sure, but general consensus is that unsettled weather will stick around for the next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across the Mid-South with a few showers near MEM as of 1130z, which are expected to diminish in coverage through mid morning. These conditions will then remain through the rest of the day with southwesterly winds between 5 - 10 knots. The TAF period becomes more active beyond 22z - 00z with the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the end of the period at all terminals. However, model consistency has been poor regarding both the timing, coverage, and placement of storms, which has kept confidence considerably low. Therefore, have maintained PROB30s to cover convection in two rounds that could produce MVFR impacts: 1) between 22z - 06z and 2) a second round prior to 12z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...None.