textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid-South throughout the day, bringing the threat for damaging winds. These storms could continue into the evening to early overnight hours.

- Dry weather will return for the weekend, with temperatures warming to well above normal. Daytime high temperatures early next week will prevail in the upper 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Somewhat of an active morning generally along and north of the I- 40 corridor with thunderstorms ongoing. Much of the thunderstorm activity has struggled with CIN still present after the overnight hours and the outflow boundaries from the storms continue to move away from the complex itself. Some additional thunderstorms are beginning to fire across the Delta region, which will be something to watch through the remainder of the day. With this outflow boundary, this could provide enough lift to initialize additional thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening hours, particularly south of the I-40 corridor and especially into north MS. Around this same timeframe, an additional complex of storms is expected to develop to our west, providing additional lift across the Mid-South. There are still several variables at play, including generally weak flow aloft and little to no shear available. There will generally be > 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, so some instances of damaging wind gusts and sub-severe hail cannot be ruled out. The main timing for this threat to materialize would generally be from 3 PM to 11 PM. Much of the current CAM guidance has this activity slowly waning following sunset, with only a few lingering showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. With generally low dew point depressions and any rainfall from earlier in the day, do expect some patchy fog to develop across the area overnight through around sunrise Thursday morning.

Into Thursday, the forecast will become largely dependent on how south the aforementioned complex of storms progresses overnight. While the majority of the Mid-South will likely remain dry, some showers and thunderstorms cannot necessarily be ruled out along and south of this boundary that develops. The general thinking at this point is that the boundary will be far enough south to keep much of any activity out of the Mid-South, but will leave some isolated to scattered PoPs across our southern tier of counties into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Otherwise, clearing areawide is expected into Friday with high temperatures spanning the upper 80s to low 90s.

By Saturday, an upper-level ridge will continue to move across the Plains, shifting over the area into the beginning of next week. This will allow a much drier weather pattern to emerge with temperatures likely returning to above-normal through much of next week. Dew point temperatures will remain somewhat moderated over this same period, so heat headlines may not necessarily be needed despite the mid to upper 90 high temperatures. Nearing the end of the current forecast period, there really is no indication of breaking out of this pattern. For this recent, expect dry and hot conditions to persist through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the airspace through late evening. Given large uncertainty in timing and coverage, PROB30 groups were maintained at all sites. For MEM, the greatest potential for TS near the terminal is within the 00Z to 04Z timeframe. Overnight, fog is anticipated across the airspace with the greatest visibility reductions likely at TUP and MKL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns through at least Friday as minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40%. Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for today across the Mid-South and across portions of north Mississippi tomorrow. With lingering showers tonight, there is a potential for early morning fog across the entire Mid-South into Thursday morning. Into the upcoming weekend, minimum relative humidity levels could fall into the 30% to 40% range with dry conditions persisting.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.