textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. Well above-normal temperatures with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through at least Thursday.

- A cold front will reach the Mid-South by Friday, bringing pleasant and Fall-like conditions next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

After a very warm October day, a calm night is on display across the Mid-South with clear skies and temperatures in the 60s and 70s. With clear skies and calm winds along a very shallow low- level inversion, low-lying areas mainly along the Tennessee River may see some brief patchy fog overnight. Dense fog is not expected as dry air continues to filter in across the area. Well above temperature normal days are ahead as upper-level ridging continues to broaden over the Lower Mississippi Valley from the western Gulf. We'll be flirting with potential record breaking warmth through at least Thursday with highs largely in the low 90s. Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as little to no surface nor upper-level support will be present for any increased precipitation chances.

One thing of note, southerly winds will begin to usher in Gulf moisture late Monday into Tuesday increasing our dewpoints into the mid 60s increasing humidity and leading to more warm and humid conditions as opposed to the warm and dry conditions we felt last week. Come Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase in areas mainly north of the I-40 corridor as a surface front stalls just north of our area. We're not anticipating anything severe as instability looks to remain north of the Mid-South with the latest LREF guidance hinting at <20% chance of SBCAPE >500 J/kg and 0-6 bulk wind shear >25 kts in our area. As far as rainfall amounts go, latest NBM probs have a 30- 50% chance of exceeding 1/2 an inch in the aforementioned areas. Though these amounts are nothing to write home about, we'll appreciate any rainfall we can get as many areas north of I- 40 are currently under severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought conditions. Precipitation chances begin to taper off by Thursday morning as we lose our instability.

Late Thursday into early Friday, a pattern change begins. Though uncertainty remains with the overall evolution of the upper and surface level pattern, ensembles are becoming more aligned with a cooler solution. An upper-level trough looks to begin digging into the Midwest from the Rockies with an attendant cold front pushing across the Mid-South. Our next shot at true Fall-like temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s looks likely next weekend as the airmass behind the aforementioned front looks almost polar in nature. We could even see some lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s come Sunday morning, however, for this, we will have to wait and see.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Light/calm winds may lead to patchy fog formation overnight at TUP and MKL. At 04Z, KNQA and KGWX VAD wind profiles showed southerly and northerly low level flow, respectively. This implies a low level ridge axis between the two radars, with limited potential for stronger winds off the surface to partially mix down. This ridge axis will lift east on Monday, with southwest winds becoming occasionally gusty at JBR and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Dry air will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop to around or below 30 percent Monday for many areas. Luckily, 20 ft winds will remain light leading to minimal fire weather danger. Increased moisture brought in by southerly flow will increase relative humidity values to around 35-40 percent. Outside of scattered rain chances mainly north of I-40 Wednesday, an overall dry pattern will persist across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.