textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- A dry cold front late Sunday will bring cooler temperatures into early week before a warming trend occurs midweek.

- Dry weather will prevail through at least the midweek.

- A secondary cold front late week will edge temperatures closer to normal into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Another anomalously warm March day is unfolding across the Mid- South. Gusty southwest winds ushering in warm air and a 588dm ridge over the southwest are promoting another record high temperature day. Our four climate sites (MEM at 83, JBR at 88, MKL at 82, and TUP at 83) are forecast to nearly tie or break the high temperature record for today. Luckily relief from this glimpse of early summer is close by, however, as a surface low pushes into the central Ohio River Valley with an attendant cold front across the Mid-South this evening. However precipitation is not anticipated out ahead of this front, as in the upper-levels, quasi-zonal flow will result in a very dry air column with little to no moisture advection. Forecast soundings are promoting ample convective inhibition (CIN) due to ample dry air in the mid- levels resulting in a lack of lift for any precipitation to make it to the surface. Temperatures will drop (15-25 degrees) behind this cold front with tomorrow's highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Winds will shift northeast following the aforementioned front, but will remain gusty (up to 30mph) as the upper-level pressure gradient remains tight.

By late Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to loosen, leading to a very pleasant Tuesday with temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s. Cloud cover will also increase Tuesday as deterministic models are hinting at a few weak shortwaves ejecting east over the Mid-South. As these shortwaves move east, a few sprinkles could fall across our forecast area. Come Wednesday, a secondary warming trend returns as temperatures move back into upper 70s to lower 80s as upper-level ridging begins to edge east from the southwest. Thursday is forecast to be much like today (NBM probabilities of maximum temperatures >85F are 60- 85%), flirting with record highs as gusty southwest winds usher in warmer air and the aforementioned ridge builds further east. All four of our climate sites (MEM at 86, JBR at 87, MKL at 86, and TUP at 89) are forecast to once again nearly tie or break record highs Thursday.

Late Thursday, ensemble members depict a weak upper-level trough with a colocated surface low pushing over the Great Lakes Region. An attendant cold front looks to begin dipping down across the Mid-South Thursday evening and into Friday. Ahead of this front, precipitation may finally return Friday afternoon, mainly north of I-40 ahead of this front. The main limiting factor with rain returning Friday will be the aforementioned upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley. As we move closer to Friday, however, details will materialize. Temperatures, however, are forecast to dip once again leading to a pleasant weekend in the 70s. Something to note, the latest CPC 8-14 outlook has us above normal for temperatures and precipitation to round out March and heading into April. Stay tuned..

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR will continue across the Midsouth through late Monday. The primary aviation weather impact will be marginal low level wind shear this evening, in advance of a surface cold frontal passage. This front will pass through dry late this evening. The primary impacts will be gusty north-northeast winds overnight, persisting through late Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain around 30-40% today with gusty (up to 30 mph) southwest 20 ft winds. Tomorrow could pose a low end fire weather threat as minimum relative humidity values decrease to around 25-30% across much of the Mid-South with gusty (up to 25 mph) northeast 20 ft winds. Temperatures will remain above normal today before decreasing around 15-25 F behind the aforementioned cold front tomorrow.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.