textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist into at least the middle of the week. Little rainfall is expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Today. Expect heat indices between 102 and 109 degrees.

- Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by early next week, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Warm weather will continue through the Mid-South through the forecast period. The feature responsible is an unseasonably amplified high pressure system which has remained parked over the southeastern CONUS through the last week. Current forecast guidance remains bullish on the idea that this ridge will not only remain over the Mid-South, but retrograde west and strengthen through Thursday to around 600 dm. Surface temperatures are likely to reach the upper 90s, if not rising at or above 100 F. Regardless, surface dewpoints will stay around 70 F, leading to heat indices above 100 F. Most areas will see 105+ F heat indices Tuesday, prompting an areawide Heat Advisory through Tuesday evening at 7 PM CDT. There is potential for the Heat Advisory to be extended into Wednesday, but dewpoints may manage to mix down to a point where afternoon heat index values fail to reach the 105 F threshold for an advisory. Therefore, we have opted to hold off on an extension, but there is a decent probability that one will occur Tuesday.

In terms of precipitation, isolated, daily afternoon convection is still possible even in the midst of a strengthening and unseasonably strong ridge. RAP forecast soundings for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons show a strengthening subsidence inversion around 500 mb, but surface theta e values are sufficiently high to produce surface based profiles supportive of isolated convection. Therefore, expect pop-up showers and thunderstorms both afternoons, especially across eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and along an arc across northern Mississippi. West Tennessee is less likely to see any precipitation since the ridge is forecast to be centered over this region.

Through the middle of the week, a cutoff low will form along the east coast and retrograde southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula. This trough will eventually continue through the Gulf along the Gulf Coast into the latter half of the week. In response, the ridge is currently expected to flatten out to around 590 - 594 dm, which would correspond to a slight decrease in afternoon temperatures. However, the amplitude of the ridge, even after weakening, would still be above normal for this time of year. Therefore, above-normal temperatures in the mid 90s will continue into next weekend. Ensembles have converged onto a solution which then brings 500 mb heights down below 590 dm by Sunday, but which also includes 850 mb temps around 20 C, equivalent to 95 F through boundary layer mixing. So, even after the ridge weakens substantially by this weekend, temperatures will still continue to remain above normal. Isolated precipitation associated with convection from the subtle height falls could produce local heat relief. Forecast uncertainty balloons exponentially after Saturday, but CPC guidance still suggests that above normal temperatures can be expected into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Light southerly winds and VFR will continue under a large upper level high pressure ridge. Coverage of mid/late afternoon SHRA will be too limited to warrant a PROB30 in the 12Z TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A low (< 10%) chance of patchy fog exists tonight. A warming trend through the middle of the week will bring minimum relative humidity values below 40% through the rest of the week with 10 hour fuels dropping to around 10%. Some locations could drop to 30%. Fortunately, high pressure centered over the region will keep 20 ft winds light. So, fire danger is expected to largely stay low, but steadily drying fuels may start to increase fire danger with no widespread wetting rains expected through this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.