textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees on Thursday and Friday for portions of the Mid-South, especially areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend.

- A slow-moving upper-level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Late evening GOES Water Vapor satellite trends showed a compact upper-level low located over western Kentucky. This upper-level feature was providing larger scale lift for showers and thunderstorms over Middle Tennessee and over portions of southern Arkansas and central Mississippi. Meanwhile, convective activity had ended across the Mid-South with the loss of daytime instability and increasing convective inhibition. Late evening temperatures across the Mid-South were in the 70s.

Mainly rainfree conditions are expected across the Mid-South overnight into early Thursday morning. Latest CAMs suggest diurnally based pulse convection on Thursday will be limited in coverage, generally widely scattered to isolated, as weak ridging builds in wake of the departing upper-level low. Strong to damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts and localized heavy rainfall will be the threat for any stronger storms. This activity should quickly wane by early Thursday evening with the loss of daytime instability. Temperatures approaching the mid 90s with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s may result in heat index values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees mostly west of the Mississippi River. A Heat Advisory may be needed if conditions and coverage warrant the issuance of a heat headline.

Latest short-term model trends indicate a potential for redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over southern Missouri early Thursday evening, then spreading east-southeast into the Mid-South overnight into early Friday morning as 850 mb winds around 30 kts may assist in maintaining ongoing convection. Damaging winds will be a threat for areas north of I-40 if any storms can be rooted near the surface. Heavy rainfall will be a threat regardless of whether the storms are surface-based or elevated as precipitable water values will hover around 2 inches (90th percentile for early July).

Short-term model trends indicate several shortwaves embedded within northwest flow aloft will move across the Mid-South Friday into a moderate to strongly unstable airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain the threats with any stronger storms. This unsettled pattern is expected to persist into the weekend with additional convective chances. We maintain high confidence in the Flood Watch, which remains in effect from late Thursday night into Saturday evening.

Long term model trends continue to indicate a strong upper-level ridge building over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley next week. These trends would lend towards a somewhat drier pattern over the area next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Multiple disturbances within a weak northwest flow will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Convective coverage may increase tonight as a stronger shortwave approaches the Mississippi River Valley. Given the RAP's more consistent signal for convection after 03Z compared to the drier HRRR, a PROB30 group will be added to the MEM, JBR, and MKL TAFs. Otherwise, outside of any impact from showers or thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail with south to southwest winds of 5- 10 kts. Wind gusts may approach 20 kts near JBR this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

No fire weather concerns are anticipated across the Mid-South through the remainder of the week. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to remain above 40 percent each day with generally light 20-foot winds. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with the most likely time during the afternoon and early evening hours.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ009.

MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055.