textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A few rain showers still persist across portions of the Mid-South as of early this afternoon, situated around a quasi-stationary boundary draped SW to NE through the center of the CWA. Clouds have begun to clear enough to allow sunlight to make it to the surface in some locations, but enough cloud cover will remain to keep lows at or below 80 F this afternoon. A diurnal uptick in shower coverage this afternoon is also possible, especially in areas with better surface moisture along and east of the Mississippi River Delta. However, forecast soundings show very skinny instability with poor mid-level lapse rates. So, any convection would pose, at most, a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Light winds along the frontal zone will remain throughout the region into tonight and Tuesday morning, which in combination with high moisture could pose a threat for reduced visibilities through sunrise. Guidance doesn't seem as bullish on this idea with the probability of fog from the HREF maximizing between 30% - 40% around the Tennessee River, likely due to anvil debris overspreading the region from decaying thunderstorms on the Gulf Coast. So, dense fog isn't likely, but is not out of the cards yet tonight.

An upper ridge axis will amplify across the eastern to northern CONUS with weak, broad troughing over the Rockies and the Mid- South. Through the week, the ridge axis will retrograde across the northern CONUS and into Canada, amplifying significantly. On either side of the ridge, similarly amplified, ensembles show closed upper troughs. As a classic Omega Blocking pattern, the weather across the region is therefore not anticipated to change significantly. PWATs will remain between 1.75" - 2.00" through the rest of the work week with the potential for diurnal, afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Similar threats to what have been observed through this weekend, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, are expected from this environment. Given saturated soils from several days of rainfall, isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. Temperatures will warm slightly through the middle of the week with highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the mid 80s.

By next weekend, ensembles are in general agreement that the eastern trough in the blocking pattern will be forced south over New England. The surface pattern responds to this change by bringing a cold front south into the Ohio River Valley and Mid- South with surface high pressure settling in over the Upper Midwest. The wet, gloomy weather that will have remained over the region for a couple weeks by this point will be forced south with high temperatures decreasing in tandem. For instance, NBM guidance currently has a 40% - 60% chance of highs below 80 F across the northern half of the region, expanding to encompass the entire region Sunday. Additional showers and storms are expected to form along the front, but the coverage will depend on the presence of residual upper troughing as the boundary moves into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

1745Z KNQA radar showed evidence of a midlevel low pressure along the MS River, just west of MEM. A large region of scattered SHRA was rotating around this low, exhibiting limited organization potential except to the northwest of JBR. GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery showed little to no cloud top glaciation, indicating limited lightning potential in the short term. The effect of scattered to numerous SHRA will likely stabilize the lower atmosphere to the point that TSRA has been removed from the afternoon periods of the TAFs.

The aforementioned midlevel low will pass east of the region this evening, along with an associated weak surface cold front/pressure trough. Light surface winds and wet ground suggests at least some fog potential tonight. Mid and high clouds streaming north/northeast from convection along the LA coast may limit overnight fog potential, primarily at TUP and MKL Confidence is limited however and IFR fog mention has been retained for both TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the work week as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.