textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are in effect across the Mid-South through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue as the Mid-South is trapped under a 594 dam ridge as of Thursday evening. The ridge will continue to retrograde into Friday for our hottest day of the week thus far with air temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Shear profiles remain lackluster under this ridge, so single cell showers and thunderstorms could occur Friday afternoon within the diurnal cumulus field. However, this will not aid in much relief from the heat. Storms throughout this period are not likely to threaten severe weather.

This pattern is anticipated to continue throughout the weekend with an Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM Sunday. By Sunday evening, return flow finally eases and a more zonal to northwest flow regime will emerge. This will knock temperatures down a few degrees, but more importantly, filter in slightly drier air reducing heat index values.

Despite the northwest flow, probabilities from the NBM are nil for any mentionable rainfall through the forecast period, which could lead to rapid onset drought conditions. To increase confidence on the possibility of rapid onset drought, long term guidance favors another ridge sliding east late next week with the return of southerly flow. Heat headlines are uncertain for early into the work week, but could very easily make another appearance late next week if these trends continue. For now, continue to practice heat safety and prepare for another hot week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period under strong high pressure. A scattered cumulus field will develop this afternoon, with medium confidence in a few short-lived isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. SW winds will strengthen at JBR and MEM as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a surface low moving across the Central Plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot and prolonged dry conditions continue across the region. No wetting rain is expected across our fire weather zones through the period. Despite the drying of fuels, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 30 percent with light south/southwest 20-foot winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007-010-011- 020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-008-009- 012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.