textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday. Stronger storms will pose a localized flash flooding threat.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for potentially two rounds of strong to severe storms exists on Monday damaging winds and large hail.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through the workweek.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Another warm and humid day is in play across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s as a scattered stratus deck moves east across our area. Latest 15Z surface analysis denotes a stationary front bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley while in the upper levels, quasi-zonal flow is on display across the region. A few diurnally driven, mid- afternoon pop-up thunderstorms can't be ruled out today as SBCAPE values will be around 2000 J/kg will be present. However, today will be largely quiet with little to no precipitation as we remain largely capped, though, the airmass will remain muggy with some areas, mainly along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi stateline likely reaching into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the 70s.

Tomorrow, however, will be a different story as upper-level northwest flow begins to build across the Mississippi Valley this evening. At the surface, today's stationary boundary and surface low will begin to wobble over the Mid-South. As we move into more of a northwest flow regime, tomorrow is shaping up to be unsettled as several embedded shortwaves begin to push a few MCSs across our forecast area. The last several runs of CAMs have displayed an early morning, latest consensus is around sunrise, MCS moving southwest into our area from central Missouri. Looking at parameter spacing with this first system, forecast soundings are indicating upwards of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, around 35 kts of effective shear, mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km, around 1200 J/kg of DCAPE, and PWATs around 1.7-1.8", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Given this early to mid- morning environment, this system will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours leading to a localized flash flooding threat. This first system looks to exit the Mid-South as early as noon. Tomorrow will also be a warm one with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with some areas, especially in the Delta region, potentially seeing heat indices in excess of 100F.

Look for a sneaky secondary cluster of storms late tomorrow afternoon into early evening, primarily along and west of the Mississippi River, ahead of a more potent shortwave and cold front. The storm mode with this next system is hard to nail down right now, but given the decent recovery time and peak daytime heating this afternoon, the parameter space is looking pretty juicy for severe weather. Forecast soundings are hinting at moderate to high CAPE (2500-3500 J/kg), DCAPE around 1200 J/kg, effective shear around 35 kts, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, STP around 2, and PWATs around 2", which is nearing the 97th percentile for this time of year. While uncertainty remains with this cluster, the environment will support strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, heavy downpours, a potential localized heavy rainfall threat, and maybe even a rogue tornado or two. Our confidence remains around a 2/5 for tomorrow since the overall evolution of both systems is likely to change.

Moving into Tuesday, we finally begin to break out of this nearly 3 week wet and unsettled pattern. A cold front will push past the Mid-South with a cooler, and much drier airmass moving in behind it. Lowered dewpoints (upper 50s to mid 60s) begin to filter in Tuesday, resulting in increasingly less humid conditions. Weak upper-level ridging will also begin to build over the region keeping mostly dry conditions present through the workweek with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, as low-level moisture increases, a few diurnally driven showers and storms (15% PoPs) may find enough moisture to produce, especially in the afternoons. Looking ahead at ensemble guidance next weekend, as an upper-low begins to push into the Baja California with a southwest flow rescheme building over the Mississippi Valley. The latest CPC 8-14 day outlook has us above normal for both temperatures and precipitation into mid June.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will persist through tomorrow morning as weak upper level high pressure remains in place. There is a medium signal for MVFR fog at MKL and TUP as skies clear and winds go calm overnight.

Northwest flow will push a complex of TSRA into the area tomorrow morning and potentially affect all sites. There is enough confidence to mention VCTS at all terminals with a PROB30 added for potential TSRA timing. Winds will remain light (less than 5 knots) and quite variable throughout the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into Tuesday, with sporadic showers and thunderstorms maintaining high humidity and fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the region as minimum relative humidity values begin to fall below 50%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.