textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Temperatures will trend warmer through the end of the week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing through Friday.

- Triple-digit heat index values return this weekend. Heat headlines may be needed, particularly for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

- A pattern change is indicated on long range guidance, producing variable high temperatures for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Patchy dense fog may develop over portions of the Mid-South through sunrise as skies continue to clear and winds go calm. The 00Z HREF paints a 30 to 50 percent chance of visibility less than a quarter mile for areas north of the Mississippi / Tennessee border. Should this occur, a Dense Fog Advisory will be warranted. Luckily, visibilities will quickly improve after sunrise.

Southerly surface flow returns to the Mid-South on Thursday as a surface low continues west. As a result, afternoon highs will warm a degree or two through Friday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are not out of the question at this time as a few weak disturbances push through the Mid-South. Efficient rainfall rates are anticipated with any activity that does develop, but overall probabilities for greater than a half inch of rain now through Friday evening is less than 30 percent.

Synoptic level flow this weekend will focus around a building subtropical high over the western Gulf and the emergence of a tropical system over the Florida peninsula. This regime will place the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft, keeping the area prone to shortwave passages. Rain chances will linger through the weekend with areas near the Tennessee River having the greatest chance for precipitation. Afternoon highs will remain in the low 90s but a few higher readings cannot be ruled out in the Mississippi Delta, where the upper level ridge will be the more prominent synoptic level player. A Heat Advisory is not out of the question along and west of the Mississippi River, but enough uncertainty exists at this time to cast doubt on heat indices reaching the 105 degree mark. Unsettled upper level flow will continue into next week as a large upper level trough digs across the Great Lakes Region. This feature will eject a cold front towards the Mid-South, though model disagreements remain regarding the exact speed and strength of this boundary. As such, the NBM continues an 8 to 10 degree spread in afternoon highs by the middle of next week. For now, expect a warm start to the week with daily chances of rain.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Latest short range guidance has trended upward in MVFR CIG probabilities overnight. With mid 70s F dewpoints, calm winds and limited cloud cover, IFR VIS may precede the low cloud deck at MKL. GOES East, often relied upon for nocturnal stratus trends, remains offline at discussion time.

VFR will prevail on Thursday, with a reduced coverage of SHRA/TSRA (relative to previous days) occurring to the north and east of the MEM 25SM VC ring. This would place JBR and MKL right at the PROB30 TSRA threshold.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as tropical moisture continues to impact the Mid-South. Wetting rain chances will linger into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.