textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect on Saturday, with primary threats of damaging winds and flash flooding.

- An unsettled pattern continues through early next week maintaining risks for additional heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An MCV is ongoing near the Paducah, KY area into southern Indiana as of 11 PM. This will make little southward movement until the overnight hours. Using WoFs ensemble probabilities, there is a very low probability of the Mid-South experiencing severe winds through much of the overnight period. The 00z HRRR does suggest a complex of sub-severe thunderstorms will sneak into northwest Tennessee early Saturday morning. Some wind gusts up to 50mph could mix down to the surface, but a decent capping inversion should be established.

A triple threat of heat, severe, and flooding will kick off the weekend and unfold on Saturday. Compared to previous days, better shear will be present as an area of low pressure nears. By early afternoon, steep lapse rates will enhance inverted V soundings and bring another damaging wind threat. While bulk shear vectors will be better, the wind profile itself is not highly veered and more elongated southwesterly to zonal flow, which is not highly favorable for tornadogenesis. LCLs appear a bit higher so that also decreases confidence in a tornado threat. PW values however continue to near or exceed 2" and current model depicts storm tracks will go over areas of the region that have extremely saturated soils from days prior rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect, as it won't take much additional rainfall to cause problems along sensitive soils. As for heat, triple digit heat indices are likely across the MS Delta region, ahead of convection. The 15z NBM is significantly higher on dewpoints in the delta region as hi-res guidance comes into play. Confidence is a bit lower than previous as the hi-res guidance continues to come in. Nonetheless, triple digit heat indices are likely to occur in that area, but may not exceed 105F. A Heat Advisory will likely not be issued for Saturday.

Another wave will move through the area on Sunday threatening strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall leading to flooding impacts once again. Sunday does not appear as well defined as the aforementioned low begins to dive east towards Middle TN. On the back side of the low, shear becomes less favorable and mid-level lapse rates are subpar. The abundance of rainfall across northwest Tennessee from previous days may also keep the near surface layer stable and just continue to heighten the flooding threat. The current Flood Watch is in effect through 1 AM Sunday, confidence in the timing of the rainfall axis warrants potential extensions to the current Flood Watch, pending subsequent model runs.

The heavy rainfall axis will begin to shift by late weekend into early next week and increase rainfall amounts over southwest Tennessee, southern Arkansas, and north Mississippi. While these areas have not been as soaked as northern areas, we do not think, based on current guidance, these areas would need a flood watch.

The aforementioned low looks to churn over Middle TN into the middle of next week, which would keep showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures in the forecast. Model guidance exhibits poor agreement on the evolution of this upper low, suggesting unsettled conditions may persist well into next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The HRRR continues to track ongoing convection over northwest TN, which is expected to remain benign as it shifts east of the Tennessee River. CAMs are in agreement regarding a line of showers and thunderstorms traversing the Mid-South late this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will increase with gusts near 20 kts, veering northwest behind the line of storms. MVFR ceilings are anticipated by sunrise at MKL and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal across the Mid-South through the upcoming weekend as relative humidity levels remain comfortably above 40 percent. Daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms will also contribute to maintaining favorable fuel moisture levels. Given the lack of dry, windy conditions, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055.