textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through Thursday, topping out in the low to middle 90s.

- Humidity levels will slowly increase as well. Heat indices will climb to near or slightly below Advisory criteria Thursday through Saturday.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A cutoff upper low will remain stationary over Georgia through Wednesday before dissipating and becoming absorbed by the broad upper trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. Expect mostly dry weather on the periphery of this feature with diurnal cumulus for the next couple of days. There is a very low chance (<10%) of a shower along the Mississippi/Alabama border and the Tennessee River for the next couple of afternoons.

Temperatures will slowly warm into the lower to mid 90s by Thursday and humidity levels will start to creep back up as southerly surface winds develop. Dewpoints will be back in the lower to mid 70s by Thursday afternoon. Heat index values will start to climb into the triple digits again, though they are likely to remain below Heat Advisory criteria at most places through Saturday. However, we will need to monitor the Delta region southwest of Memphis.

The broad upper trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will extend into the Mid-South late Friday into Saturday. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-35%) across the Mid-South during that timeframe. QPF amounts for the next 7 days will average less than one-quarter inch for the most part.

The upper trough pushes east by Sunday with a broad upper ridge nosing in from the Southern Plains. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather except for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over mainly Northeast Mississippi. Persistent southerly flow will result in dewpoints solidly in the mid 70s. As a result, the chance for heat index values of 105F or greater are on the increase from Sunday to Tuesday and Heat Advisories may be needed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR forecast expected at all terminals through the forecast period. Light northeasterly winds this afternoon will give way to calm or variable winds overnight as high pressure sits over the region. Expect a south-southwesterly wind shift at MEM/JBR through the end of the period tomorrow.

Due to ongoing issues with ASOS observations at TUP, AMD NOT SKED will be included in the TAF with this issuance or until routine observations return.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

There are no major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40%, with 20 ft winds generally remaining at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.