textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Low relative humidity, mainly south of I-40, will lead to elevated fire danger this afternoon. Use caution if burning outdoors and obey all local burn bans.

- A dry weather pattern will persist into early this week with high temperatures mainly in the 80s.

- Rain shower chances return as early as Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Similar to 24 hours ago, mostly cloudy skies have kept temperatures running a few degrees cooler this morning. Ongoing convection in southeast Kansas continues to stretch a thick cirrus shield across the region, limiting heating early this morning. A few cloud breaks are expected, but heating today should remain tamed with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s, which will aid in RH values remaining at or above critical thresholds. Broad upper ridging will persist into the Northern Plains through midweek keeping dry and comfortable weather in place. Southerly flow will take over and advect warmer and moister air beginning Tuesday as temperatures creep towards or exceed 90 degrees. Humidity values and temperatures are expected to remain elevated from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

A cutoff low will linger and weaken over Texas next week, with enhanced moisture from Polo to work with, but the details are murky especially when it comes to how long it lingers. The GFS may be a bit too progressive, and there seems to be a better consensus for a bit slower progression, like the ECMWF and EC- AIFS suggest. All of this is to say that the last few days of the forecast period are uncertain. The uncertainty greatly affects our temperature and precipitation forecast, but while the system remains to our west, expect warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances through the end of the week. Uncertainty in the forecast remains elevated in the long range noted by 10-15 degree temperature differences between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles late next weekend into early next week. Be sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we monitor the evolution of the incoming system.

DNM

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Winds will become light this evening, then increase back to NNE winds between 5-8 kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop to near 30% across much of the region each afternoon through Tuesday. The lowest minimum relative humidity values-generally below 30%-will occur in portions of northern Mississippi on Sunday afternoon. There is a 40% to 50% chance for localized areas to drop below 20%. Additionally, 10-hour fuels areawide will drop to near 10% through Tuesday as warm, dry weather remains situated across the region with wetting rains not expected until Thursday at the earliest.

Therefore, fire danger will remain elevated through the next few days until higher Gulf moisture can arrive Wednesday. Fortunately, 20-foot winds are forecast to remain under 10 miles per hour through this portion of the forecast. Wetting rain chances return Thursday as a low pressure system approaches the region, but this portion of the forecast is still uncertain and precipitation chances are expected to change in the coming days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.