textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- The Midsouth will experience above normal temperatures through most of the upcoming week. Monday will be the exception, as a weak cold front brings a brief cooldown. .

- Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through at least midweek, as the main storm track extends from the central Great Plains to the Midsouth.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A fairly static upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS through late week. A large upper level height ridge will be the pattern's most prominent feature, centered near the 4-corners region, to near west TX. The Midsouth will remain near the storm track along the ridge's northeastern periphery. Our thunderstorm chances will be modulated by northern branch shortwaves, tracking southeast from the central and northern Great Plains.

While the overall pattern remains static, a brief amplification will occur early in the week, aided by height falls from the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians. This amplification will coincide with a westward shift of the storm track into the Ozarks on Monday. Concurrently a weak backdoor cold front will bring lower humidity and modest heat relief to the Midsouth. This relief will be short-lived, as western upper ridge expands eastward Monday night, returning storm chances to the Midsouth.This pattern will vary little from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs returning to the low and middle 90s, accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s. This combination should keep daytime heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, especially where thunderstorms occur.

Medium range guidance consensus depicts some deamplification of the upper pattern late in the week, resulting in a transition to more zonal flow aloft. While rain chances edge downward, above normal temperatures will continue. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance depict a more eastward expansion of the upper ridge next weekend, resulting in daytime high temperatures warming to the upper 90s by next Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

TUP will remain on the northern extent of scattered TSRA lifting across north MS through 06z. Otherwise, the main concern overnight will be fog potential. MKL received little if any rainfall on Saturday, but will be under clear skies most of the night. TUP will take longer to clear but may experience a brief fog window closer to sunrise.

Sunday should provide relatively quiet aviation weather across the Midsouth, as a drier air filters in from the northeast.

TUP TAF retains and AMD NOT SKED due to ASOS comms outage and missing METAR outside of ATCT operational hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent on Sunday. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Monday, humidity will increase slightly. Wetting rainfall chances will return Monday night, with episodes of thunderstorms possible through early Thursday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.