textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm continues with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of Northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, leading to weather-related power outages and treacherous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will persist into next week, with temperatures and wind chills dropping into the single digits and below zero at times. This cold air is expected to persist for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The first wave of a significant winter storm is dying out with the second wave not far behind. Expect yet another wave of all winter precipitation types. Snow and sleet are favored across the north, sleet/freezing drizzle are favored in the 'transition zone' and freezing rain to the south. This overnight period into tomorrow morning will be where the bulk of ice accumulations occur due to WAA in the midlevels with a 1-5 degree C warm nose.

The WAA in the midlevels is stemming from a weak, stationary boundary over central Alabama with north Mississippi residing on the warm side of the boundary. The 12z HREF wants to warm areas like Tupelo and Aberdeen to 33-37 degrees, which depicts pure liquid precipitation which is significantly skewing ice accumulation totals from previous forecasts. While Tupelo is 32 degrees as of 10 PM, this stalled boundary should unpark itself in the coming hours. As the front sinks, winds will gradually back to the north/northwest and filter in colder air. Another factor skewing ice accumulation in this area is rainfall rates. Rapid rain rates will hinder accretion and lead to runoff. This will be the area to watch tonight to see how warm this area gets and how strong the warm nose can remain.

Models do still favor a narrow corridor of significant icing over the coming hours stretching from northeast MS to the TN River Valley. Reports from the first wave have ranged from 0.10-0.30" of ice, with a medium chance (50-70%) of 0.25-0.75" by the end of wintry precipitation tomorrow afternoon. Ice accumulations greater than 0.50" are devastating to infrastructure and trees. Travel conditions were deteriorating throughout the day today, but will continue to worsen overnight.

The transition zone looks to still be favorable for sleet, but there is a brief time period and favorable location for a glaze of ice and cause additional disruptions, with low probabilities of accumulating a 0.25". This location unfortunately coincides with the I-40 corridor, which will make travel even more difficult from accumulations from the first wave. The warm nose is over performing slightly, with light freezing drizzle threatening the entire region. Freezing rain/drizzle will be brief in northern portions and increase in longevity and coverage further south. Areas to the north near the KY/TN and AR/MO borders will still favor snow during the daytime hours, but some sleet could also mix in. Nonetheless, travel will be hazardous, if not impossible, for at least an additional day across the region.

Wintry precipitation is expected to come to an end tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours. While precipitation will come to an end, extremely cold and brutal weather will remain with negative wind chill values expected Monday and Tuesday morning. Due to the snow pack, some areas may not rise above freezing until the middle of the week. The sun may help out with some partial melting of the snow/sleet/ice on the ground midweek, but significant melting is not anticipated. On the bright side, there is no precip (liquid or frozen) expected through at least next Saturday. The 6-10 day outlook has a 90% chance of below normal temperatures and a 60% chance of below normal precipitation; in other words, cold and dry for the most part.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

KNQA radar shows an expanding area of FZRAPL moving northeast from the Arklamiss, associated with an elevated surge of warm saturated air. Model soundings from the 03Z RAP and HRRR track well with the 00Z TAFs with respect to timing and precip type. Expect a transition to primarily PL toward 12Z, as the elevated warm layer begins to lift east.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Accumulating wintry precipitation continues through late Sunday. Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 011>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>052-088-089.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.