textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Saturday will bring the coolest daytime temperatures, with highs in the 60s, about 10 degrees below normal for mid-October. Sunday morning will bring the coolest temperatures of the weekend, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over parts of West Tennessee, to the lower 40s over the remainder of the Midsouth.

- Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Today (Thursday) will again bring summer-like high temperatures to the Midsouth, but with lower humidity. Late Wednesday afternoon surface observations showed mid 40s dewpoints over much of central MS around Jackson, while lower to mid 70s dewpoints prevailed over most of the Midsouth. JAN upper sounding from 12Z Wednesday showed an average 925-850mb dewpoint near 0C. This layer won't be quite as dry over the Midsouth today, but we'll nonetheless see surface dewpoints about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday.

The main weather event remains a strong cold frontal passage Friday morning, aided by a deep northern branch longwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. 18Z GFS depicted stratospheric vorticity incorporated into this trough, with the dynamic tropospheric pressure level down to 600mb over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a dynamic system and a sign of the changing seasons.

As the upper trough lifts off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard Saturday, a progressive upper level ridge will build through the southern and central Great Plains, with weakening northwest flow over the Midsouth. This ridge will expand through much of the southeast US on Sunday, as it deamplifies. The net result for the Midsouth will be diminishing surface winds by Sunday morning, allowing the dry air to cool to the upper 30s and lower 40s toward sunrise.

The dry airmass will modify from Sunday onward, with highs reaching normal by Tuesday. Medium range global models depict the upper level ridge amplifying over the latter half of the week, downstream of a closed low moving onshore into southern California. There are some disparity between the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means with respect to timing of the upstream Pacific low. This timing may be sorted out in the subsequent runs, but for now the overall trend of warmer temps late next week appears to be a good bet.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. A few sites mainly over NW TN have begun to fog with reduced visibilities, but fog is not anticipated at TAF sites due to dry air. Southwest winds will pick up at around 8-12 kts by mid- morning. A few occasional gusts up to 25 kts are expected in the afternoon at JBR ahead of a cold front. Heading into the early morning hours Friday, this front will begin to shift winds more west/northwest with gusts up to 20 kts impacting MEM. MVFR conditions also begin to creep into the airspace early Friday.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Dry conditions will continue into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. . Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent today, mainly south of Interstate 40. Light winds will prevail areawide this afternoon.

A strong cold front will pass through the region Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. Despite much cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity will again drop below 40 percent Saturday afternoon. Winds will not be as quite strong as on Friday, but will gust in the morning and early afternoon.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>051.