textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Midsummer-like heat will return to the Mid-South on Sunday and will persist into at least the middle of next week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and to the west of the Mississippi River Sunday between 11 AM CDT through 7 PM CDT. Expect heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees.

- Temperatures will likely moderate by next weekend, returning closer to seasonal normals with highs near 90 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Storms have ceased as of around 23z, likely due to increasing CINH from upper subsidence behind Friday's trough and surface air mass modification throughout the day. This will leave the region dry through Sunday morning. Patchy fog is still possible tonight with high clouds keeping a higher coverage of fog at bay.

Sunday will see the start of this pesky heat wave once again regaining strength. NBM high temperatures have held steady with peak temperatures in the upper 90s areawide with some locations potentially reaching 100 degrees. Surface moisture is still abundant enough too to bring heat indices across portions of the region along and west of the Mississippi River above 105 degrees. Therefore, we have issued a Heat Advisory from 11 AM through 7 PM Sunday. For the vast majority of the area, PoPs are just about non-existent, meaning that heat relief is not expected. However, some short-term guidance hints that some outflow from potential storms across Missouri could reach far northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel Sunday afternoon, but confidence is too low. So, count on the heat sticking around through the day in these areas.

Models are in good agreement that the upper ridge responsible for the increase in temperatures will persist through at least the middle of next week. The ridge will reach peak strength Tuesday with forecast temperatures at or above 100 degrees for more than half the Mid-South both Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, precipitation chances are just about nil through next week underneath the ridge. So, heat relief is unlikely, but what is likely is the need for additional heat headlines through at least Wednesday.

Ensembles have been hinting at a possible mechanism to remove the heat through the last several forecast cycles, primarily through a deflection of the polar jet south with the high retrograding west. However, this solution must have lost rapport within the ensembles, because now they seem to prefer a cutoff low developing over the Atlantic, originating from a shortwave currently over the Great Lakes. Members with this feature then bring it south and west along the Atlantic Coastline through midweek. At the same time, a tropical wave also propagates through the Caribbean. The net effects of these features are a growing consensus of ensemble members depicting some form of troughing over the Gulf or southeastern CONUS by late next week. Additionally, from a climatological perspective, we are well overdue for some cooler temperatures, which should be on their way any week now. So, confidence, albeit slowly, is beginning to rise in a gradual weakening of the ridge late next week that should hopefully yield lower temperatures. Lastly, although the mean background synoptics may see a weakening in the upper ridge, high forecast variability still exists in exact forcing mechanisms and atmospheric moisture. So, precipitation chances are uncertain for late next week and into next weekend for the time being.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The primary concern overnight is the potential for patchy fog affecting the MKL/TUP terminals. HREF guidance indicates medium probabilities (30-50%) of LIFR visibility late tonight. Will maintain the TEMPO for 1SM visibility with BCFG given the likely intermittent nature of the fog. Elsewhere, expect generally VFR conditions with light winds. A few stray thunderstorms are possible (~10% chance) Sunday afternoon, but the probability is far too low to warrant mention in any of the TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

There will be a potential for fog tonight, particularly over north Mississippi and West Tennessee, but expectations are for fog to remain patchy due to scattered cloud cover. A warming trend will begin to decrease minimum relative humidity values with most of the area expected to see values below 40%. This trend will continue through much of next week while higher than average to near-record heat remains throughout the region. Fortunately, 20-foot winds are expected to be light and afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to remain above 10%, which will keep fire danger to a minimum through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ048-049-088.