textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for Sunday morning through Monday morning for wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the entire Mid-South late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. The main threat will be damaging winds with a 20% chance for a couple of brief tornadoes to occur as the line of storms moves across the entire Mid-South.

- Freeze Watches are in effect for the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday mornings.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a deepening trough over the InterMountain West with broad troughing across nearly the entire CONUS. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped from the KS/OK border ESE into the Carolinas. Temperatures remain mild at this hour with readings mainly in the low to upper 60s. Generally light surface winds are observed across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Over the next 12 hours, a deep trough will develop over the Southern Plains and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Ahead of the system, strong surface cyclogenesis will ensue with a 989mb low forecast to be near the IA/MO border by early afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will tighten significantly across the region, with nearly a 10mb gradient from northeast Arkansas to northeast Mississippi. Strong winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph will be plenty with wind gusts approaching 45 mph at times, especially over the Missouri Bootheel. Strong WAA advection will simultaneously occur, with the latest HREF building between 750 and 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE across the entire Mid-South. With the ejection of a 60 knot mid-level jet by and nearly 100 meter height falls across the region by mid afternoon, a strongly forced QLCS will develop just to our west. The main threats with the squall line will be damaging winds, but compact looping hodographs will support the threat for at least a few mesovortices within the line. There is some concern that discrete cells could form ahead of the main cold front, associated with a prefrontal trough, mainly over north Mississippi by mid to late afternoon. Although the probability is less than 20% for prefrontal organized convection, and only tied to a couple hi-res model members at this time, the model soundings suggest a supercell threat could emerge and could contain an all-hazards threat early on. This window will remain rather short for supercells, but they could quickly form and strengthen and result in a strong tornado or two. Nonetheless, the QLCS will advance quickly across the region by late afternoon and early evening and congeal any prefrontal convection. There has been some talk about a potential upgrade from the current Enhanced Risk (3/5), and the main cause would be potential supercells on the southern end of the QLCS, mainly over portions of southeast Arkansas and north Mississippi. With some uncertainty still looming, the Enhanced Risk with CIG1 covers the entire event well. The squall line should clear the area around midnight tomorrow night, ending the severe threat.

Behind the front, strong winds will persist as a 110 knot mid- level jet digs across the region. The HREF is consistent with the continual mixing down of strong winds behind the front, prompting the expansion of the wind advisory to the entire Mid-South and a time extension through 7AM Monday. With several hours of strong winds and wind gusts before, during, and after the passage of the QLCS, the threat for weather-related power outages and additional downed trees will persist through the dawn hours on Monday.

Monday morning will be especially brisk as sustained 15 to 20 mph winds keep apparent temperatures only in the 20s all day on Monday. A freeze watch remains in effect for nearly the entire Mid-South. Surface high pressure will build into the region late Monday night and become nearly centered over the region by Tuesday morning. Prime radiational cooling will result in morning lows in the upper teens over northwest Tennessee to lower 20s over northeast Mississippi. An areawide freeze watch remains in effect.

Temperatures will moderate by midweek as surface high pressure slides east and return flow sets up over the region. The region can expect benign weather and above normal temperatures to return by late week as upper level high pressure builds across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A 45kt LLJ will result in LLWS across all sites through the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient ahead of a fast moving cold front has brought south/southwest wind gusts, up to 25 kts overnight. Beginning around 12Z, gusts will accelerate in excess of 35 kts through the afternoon hours across all terminals. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, though intermittent drops to MVFR can't be ruled out ahead of the aforementioned front. SHRA out ahead of the main front are expected to begin impacting JBR/MEM/MKL around 21Z. TSRA, moving west to east, will reduce visibilities and lead to potentially greater than 40 kt wind gusts across all TAF sites. Winds will shift northwest, behind the front, toward the end of the period.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple of days. A widespread shot of wetting rain is expected late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as a line of thunderstorms moves across the Mid-South, followed by much colder temperatures for early next week. Above normal temperatures will return by late week, however, relative humidity will remain in the 40 percent range.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for MOZ113-115.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for MSZ001>015-020>022.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.