textproduct: Memphis
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
- Slightly below-normal temperatures continue through tomorrow before trending warmer and more humid by Thursday.
- Temperatures will gradually return to the upper 80s to 90s by midweek through the end of the week, with some locations seeing heat index values approach 105 by next weekend.
DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
Persistent upper level troughing continues over much of the eastern CONUS. The troughing has become a bit less robust in anticipation of a developing cut-off low over the southeast region. The low will continue to keep cloud cover our eastern zones until it gradually retrogrades northeasterly.
While we remain on the back side of the departing cut-off low, benign temperatures will continue through tomorrow. As the low to our east becomes displaced, weak southerly flow will emerge on Wednesday returning temperatures to near normal in the low 90s. Southerly flow will get a bit stronger on Thursday and continue to nudge temperatures upwards and transport moisture. Concurrent with an upper level ridge amplifying over the western CONUS, weak troughing will skirt across the Midwest. A few showers may dampen our northern zones Thursday, but model soundings continue to show lingering dry air aloft which keeps confidence low at this time.
The weekend into early next week does continue to look hot and humid, but nothing unseasonably warm. Probabilities of heat index values exceeding 105F (Heat Advisory criteria) remain confined to the MS Delta region and continue to lessen elsewhere geographically. There is uncertainty into how broad or deep the trough will emerge, which will heavily influence temperatures and precipitation this weekend. For now, a 20-40% PoP was carried for the most of the weekend.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period at all sites. There is a chance of light fog at MKL late tonight. N/NW winds at 6-8 kts today will become light again by this evening. Kept AMD NOT SKED in for TUP due to ASOS issues.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.
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