textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will occur through early Wednesday evening, mainly south of the Interstate 40 corridor. A few strong to severe storms could occur south of Tupelo with damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat.

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday, before showers and thunderstorms return for the weekend. At this time, severe thunderstorm chances appear low.

- Dry and cool conditions will prevail for Monday, followed by warmer and continued dry weather through next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Midday surface analysis and KGWX radar showed a cold front extending across northeast MS, midway between Tupelo and Aberdeen. At noon, the temperature gradient between these two sites was 13 degrees, aided by partial sunshine south of the front. SPC Mesoanalysis site showed surface-based CAPE around 1000 J/kg south of the front. Areas along and about 15 miles north of the front remain in a Slight Risk for severe storms for the remainder of the day, flanked on the north by a narrow strip of Marginal Risk. 12Z JAN upper air sounding showed a pronounced EML based at 775mb. This EML was also evident on the FWD sounding, based at 825mb.

12Z HREF soundings for Aberdeen depict the EML eroding this afternoon, while surface temps warm to the lower 80s. Effective SRH will likely be around 120 m2/s2, considerably lower than on Wednesday. However, 0-6km bulk shear will reach 60-70kt prior to cold frontal passage around 5 pm. As the EML lifts out, midlevel lapse rates will decrease to around 6 C/km. This would be sufficient for large hail production, but the overall sounding profiles are quite moist, with PWAT of 1.8 inches. As such the primary severe weather threat for the Slight Risk area will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall, with a secondary threat of large hail. An isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the front, or other boundaries that provide a localized area of backed surface flow.

Beyond this evening, dry and cool conditions will prevail through Friday, under relatively fast west-northwest flow aloft. An open northern branch trough will drop into the middle to lower MS River Valley Friday night, tapping into midlevel subtropical moisture extending from a southern branch upper low over west TX. Near the surface, Gulf moisture will lift north into the Midsouth behind a warm front Saturday afternoon, returning 60s dewpoints to areas south of I-40. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over north MS Saturday afternoon, as the northern branch rotates through. Meager convective instability will result in lower thunder chances north of I-40 Saturday afternoon. Rain and thunder chances will increase areawide Saturday night into Sunday, as the southern branch low lifts out, ahead of another northern branch trough and surface cold frontal passage Sunday night. Severe thunderstorm chances appear minimal at this time. 00Z LREF-depicted joint probabilities of 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 30kt of deep layer bulk was less than 20 percent, and that was confined to areas south of I-40 Sunday afternoon.

Dry and slightly cooler than normal weather will prevail for Monday. Thereafter, fast northwest flow aloft will be displaced to the north by an upper ridge building east from TX into the lower MS River Valley. This will bring continued dry weather to the Midsouth, with daytime highs averaging 5 to 7 degrees above normal over the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms are traversing the airspace at the 18z issuance with a cold frontal boundary well south of the TUP terminal. JBR and MKL are on the well cooled side of the boundary and a few light rain showers could dampen the terminal through 00z. MEM should follow suit of the other two northern terminals in the next hour or two. TUP has a low probability of shower and thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon and evening with prob30s in place to account for low confidence and scattered coverage.

Aside from precipitation, a blanket of MVFR/IFR ceilings covers most of the airspace, with the exception of JBR. JBR is VFR, but hovering around 3500ft. As the aforementioned front sinks further south, expect MKL and MEM to retreat to VFR with TUP reaching VFR last. All sites should prevail VFR by 15z at the latest.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days. Minimum RH will drop below 40 percent on Monday, following likely wetting rainfall on Sunday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.