textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening for portions of the Mid-South due to heat indices 105 degrees or greater.

- A cold front will bring scattered rain chances to a large part of the Mid-South late Thursday through early Saturday, offering some minor heat and drought relief.

- Drier weather returns Sunday into next week as high pressure strengthens, maintaining above-normal temperatures across the region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Surface analysis indicates weak low pressure over northeast Arkansas, with a boundary extending northeast toward Paducah, KY, and southwest into the ArkLaTex. Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist near this feature. Water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the Southeast, anchored by a weak upper-level trough over the Southern Plains.

Modest height falls interacting with moderate instability (MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg) and ~25 kt bulk shear will support multicell clusters through early evening, capable of producing 30-50 mph wind gusts. Gust potential will diminish post-sunset as instability wanes and low-level capping develops. Training convective cells remain a secondary concern overnight as upper-level flow runs parallel to the stalling frontal boundary near I-40, though confidence in localized flooding remains low.

The upper trough will slowly cross the Mid-South through Friday, lowering 500mb heights to ~586 dam. Debris cloudiness and a positively tilted trough axis will limit severe organization, but scattered diurnally enhanced convection (40-60% PoPs) is expected. Increased cloud cover and convective outflow will hold high temperatures down, keeping heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s.

Excessive heat returns Sunday through mid-week as a strong ~594 dam ridge expands eastward. High confidence in LREF ensemble guidance points to building heat headlines and worsening drought conditions across the region.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered TSRA appears likely around JBR after 21Z, oriented near an outflow boundary. For MEM and MKL, TSRA chances have decreased to around 15 percent, as the outflow boundary will likely remain north of these terminals, and ridging aloft limits TSRA coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A front will cross the region Friday into Saturday, bringing higher relative humidity (above 40%), a shift to northerly winds, and scattered wetting rain chances. Strong high pressure will return on Sunday and bring high heat and dry conditions back to the region through the middle part of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ026>028-035-036- 048-049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ048-049-088.