textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight and Saturday, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. Potential hazards include damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall across the northern tier of the Mid-South.

- A period of persistent, dangerous heat and humidity will begin this weekend and continue through next week.

- High temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 90s starting Sunday, with heat indices climbing into the triple digits beginning Saturday. Residents should prepare for heat-related products throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Mid-morning GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals mainly zonal flow across much of the interior CONUS. A couple of weak perturbations are embedded within the flow, specifically over SE Missouri and the Panhandles of TX/OK. A decaying MCS is noted to the west of the KY/MO border, with some signs of redevelopment over SE Missouri. The airmass downstream of this area of redevelopment is largely capped at this hour and is moving into a region of weaker shear. Nonetheless, there is a low-to-medium chance of a few strong to severe storms this afternoon as the cap erodes and bulk shear remains in the 20 to 25 knot range. The area favored for strong to severe thunderstorms will be along the KY/TN border.

A new flood threat has emerged as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will traverse areas north of I-40 through early Sunday morning. Slow-moving storm motion, above-normal PWATs, and weak to moderate lift will support efficient rainfall-producing convection. There is reasonable ensemble agreement between the REFS and HREF Local Probability Matched Mean (LPMM) 24-hour QPF, indicating 2-4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts across portions of NE Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of NW Tennessee. A flood watch was closely coordinated with surrounding offices to account for the medium potential for flash flooding. The watch will run through early Sunday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Sunday and remain largely in place through the middle of next week. ECMWF ESAT guidance shows 500-mb and 700-mb heights climbing above the 99th percentile through late next week with near-normal PWATs. There is some uncertainty on NBM high temperatures approaching 100F next week, as high amounts of low-level moisture may prevent highs from climbing above the mid-90s mark. Nonetheless, several days of hot and humid conditions will push heat indices near the 105F Heat Advisory threshold with little reprieve at night. Heat products will likely be needed for at least 2 to 3 days and could start as early as Sunday. Now is the time to prepare for our first heat wave of the summer.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VCSH continues across the airspace, although not close enough to any TAF sites to warrant mention at this time. SHRA/TSRA will move through portions of the area overnight and again tomorrow, so have included PROB30s for JBR and MKL where there is the best chance to see impacts. Despite this, confidence is low overall. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with generally southwesterly winds becoming gusty once again tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the end of the week due to recent wetting rains and saturated soils. Daily rounds of pop-up showers and minimum relative humidity values staying above 40% will continue through Saturday. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to return to the Mid-South over the weekend and persist into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022.