textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. Well above-normal temperatures with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through at least Thursday.

- A cold front will reach the Mid-South by Friday, bringing pleasant and Fall-like conditions through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper level ridging continues to build over the region Monday. This pattern shift behind Isaias will lead to warming temperatures and dry conditions through Tuesday and much of Wednesday. So, expect high temperatures in the low 90s through at least Wednesday with lows dropping into the 60s. Temperatures this high will flirt with record highs, especially Tuesday where two out of our four climate sites are forecast to either tie or break all time daily high temperature records. Additionally, southerly flow will return today, bringing moisture back into the region. Heat indices will increase in tandem, approaching 100 F for many areas Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday will see the return of more unsettled weather, particularly across portions of northern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northern West Tennessee. An axis of moderate MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) will set up within the zone of higher surface moisture advecting north and east. A surface front will then sag south, becoming stationary north of the region, but will be enough to act as a source of lift to produce isolated to scattered convection through Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings across the board point to weak shear around 20 knots. So, severe probabilities are likely minimal with predominantly isolated gusty winds from multi-cellular clusters across the aforementioned areas. Surface moisture is then forecast to lift north of the region, bringing most of the instability and thunderstorms with it, signaling the end of precipitation chances for this week Thursday.

Guidance across the board continues to favor the development of a strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains and Midwest come this Friday. At the surface, a cold front, likely polar in nature, will sweep southeastward across the eastern CONUS late this week. Eventually, the front will arrive in the Mid-South, offering the first real taste of fall-like weather this year. Normally fronts this time of year produce precipitation, but QPF remains around zero. So, temperatures will become very mild this weekend, with highs dropping into the 70s for many Friday and into the 60s and 70s through the end of the forecast. Lows are expected to be in the 40s and 50s Saturday, dropping into the 40s Sunday and Monday with areas in northern West Tennessee possibly dropping into the 30s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Occasionally gusty SW winds will prevail at MEM and JBR this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Winds will pick back up again by mid- morning on Tuesday at JBR and MEM. A few CU will start to develop on Tuesday as surface dewpoints start to climb.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Dry air has returned to the Mid-South with minimum relative humidity values in the middle to low 30s Monday. 20-foot winds will be slightly elevated across northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, potentially leading to elevated fire weather conditions through Monday afternoon. Southerly flow will bring moisture back into the region through the end of the week with minimum relative humidity values back above 40 percent for most areas through Wednesday. A drop in humidity through the end of the week will see the return of relative humidity below 40 percent. A front will pass through the region Friday, decreasing temperatures and humidity into next weekend. Elevated 20-foot winds behind the front could lead to an increase in fire danger especially as 10-hour fuels continue to dry this week for most of the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.