textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat index values may reach Heat Advisory criteria as early as Thursday for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend.

- A slow-moving upper level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage will become more isolated on Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends still show an upper-level low located at the base of a longwave trough situated across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this upper level low have weakened considerably and have become elevated since sunset due to the loss of daytime instability. Late evening temperatures were in the 70s across the Mid-South.

Recent rainfall and clearing skies overnight may result in the development of patchy fog, especially over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and portions of north Mississippi. The upper-level trough will gradually lift out of the Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, especially east of the Mississippi River. Conditions will remain favorable for diurnal pulse-type thunderstorms during peak heating. Strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain are possible with any strong storms. Convective coverage will diminish on Thursday and Friday as the recent wet pattern yields to a warmer and humid regime. Temperatures may climb into the mid 90s along and west of the Mississippi River. This heat, combined with high surface dewpoints, may necessitate a Heat Advisory on Thursday.

There is moderate confidence that rain chances will increase over the upcoming weekend as upper-level flow transitions to the northwest, allowing for several shortwave troughs to enhance convective chances across the area with precipitable water values increasing again to 2 inches over the weekend. By early next week, confidence is high for a strong upper-level ridge to develop over the Central and Northern Plains. This lends to moderate confidence in drier northeasterly winds minimizing mostly afternoon and early evening rain chances across the Mid- South, especially north of I-40.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light and variable winds are expected overnight as a surface boundary remains stalled across the area. Any saturated surfaces may see some reduction in visibility due to fog development. MVFR visibilities are most likely in any fog development. Slight southward propagation of the boundary is anticipated in the early morning hours, which could initiate showers and thunderstorms earlier than normal for a summertime pattern. The NAMnest has some showers near MEM as early as 14z, but the best chances of a thunderstorm remain confined to the afternoon hours. PPROB30s were carried for thunderstorm chances. Overall, expect VFR conditions outside of any fog or thunderstorms.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily during peak heating.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.