textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Dry conditions will continue today into the first half of Thursday, with seasonal high temperatures.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday afternoon, mainly to the south and west of Memphis. Increasing humidity will support more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday and this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms is low.

- Hot and humid conditions will likely develop next week, with scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 443 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A typical early summer upper air pattern appears to be settling in over North America. The northern branch of the upper jet will remain over the northern tier states the next two days, as a southern branch cut-off low lifts slowly northeast across the southern Great Plains. This upper low will continue northeast, arriving to the Ozarks on Friday. Global models often overestimate rain coverage in advance of slow-moving cut-off lows. With a slight delay in low level moisture return and initial shortwave ridging aloft, best rain chances Thursday afternoon will be to the south and west of Memphis. Lower to mid 70s dewpoints spread through all the Midsouth on Friday. With weak upper level diffluence, Friday will likely bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

The remnants of the upper low will stall over the OH and lower MS River Valleys this weekend. The presence of this trough axis and PWAT values in excess of 2 inches will support continued showers and thunderstorm. With weak deep layer shear, coverage will favor the daytime hours, aided by differential heating and mixed-layer CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Other that a few microbursts, the severe potential will remain limited through the weekend.

The weak upper trough over the Midsouth will weaken early next week, replaced by weak zonal flow. Global models differ on upstream height falls along the west coast and the resulting downstream ridging over the central CONUS. In any case, daytime temperatures will tick up a few degrees over the Midsouth, with lower 90s probable by the middle of next week. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices appear set to reach or exceed 100 in the early to middle part of next week.

PWB

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

No major aviation concerns this period as VFR conditions and light southerly winds prevail.

ANS

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.