textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Above normal temperatures will continue into Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across many locations.

- Showers and thunderstorms move into the Midsouth on Friday and persist through early Sunday. Dry and seasonal weather is forecast late Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Late evening Water Vapor satellite trends showed a cutoff upper- level low centered over southwest Arizona with the remnants of Hurricane Polo now located over northwest Mexico. An upper-level ridge over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and a surface high centered over the Mid-Atlantic states is still bringing dry weather to the Mid-South. Late evening temperatures were mostly in the 60s to lower 70s with surface dewpoints recovering back into the 50s.

Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will gradually bring a slow return of moisture to the Mid-South into Thursday with minimum relative humidity values not as low as the past few days. Most locations will see a return of 90 degree temperatures Wednesday and especially on Thursday. Confidence remains high for dry weather to persist into Thursday.

Deterministic and ensemble model solutions are in agreement with the upper-level low lifting into portions of the Central and Southern Plains, then transitioning into an open wave trough as it moves into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Rain chances will gradually begin to develop late Thursday night into Friday morning as the right entrance of an upper-level jet streak develops across the region and a weak cold front slowly moves across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

Precipitable water values are anticipated to approach the 99th percentile around 2 inches this weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts have dropped again in this latest forecast cycle with amounts averaging near 1 inch towards the MO/KY border to 1.5 inches or greater along and south of I-40. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time with marginal instability and weak overall shear expected. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind this front for early next week with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows mostly in the 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Wind gusts near 20 kts may occur Wednesday afternoon near JBR. Outside of this, expect light southerly winds and VFR conditions.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A gradual improvement in minimum relative humidity is forecast Wednesday and Thursday, in advance of wetting rainfall Friday through early Sunday. Dry and seasonal early October weather is expected early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.