textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Rain will end and northwest winds will gust to 30 to 35 mph at times this afternoon.

- Much colder temperatures will return on Thursday, with high temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees.

- Mostly below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A cold front is moving across the Mid-South this morning. At 11 AM the front stretched from northwest Tennessee through the Memphis metro into southern Arkansas. There is some redevelopment occurring right along the front, and these showers will gradually exit this afternoon. Post-frontal low clouds will linger, and northwest winds will become gusty behind the front. Winds are beginning to pick up across northeast Arkansas, and that will be the trend across the Mid-South this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 pm for northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, where gusts over 30 mph will be common.

Skies will clear, and winds will gradually diminish tonight. Decent radiational cooling will result in lows deep into the 20s and wind chills dropping into the teens. Thursday will be very cold as Canadian high pressure builds in. Highs will range from the mid 30s at Paris (PHT) to the lower 40s across parts of north Mississippi.

A large trough will remain over the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. This will result in a series of mostly dry, reinforcing cold fronts moving through. As a result, we have high confidence in below normal temperatures with highs mostly in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s. The coldest period of the stretch is expected to occur around Sunday when highs are likely to climb to only around the freezing mark, and morning feels-like temperatures will dip into the single digits.

The mean trough over the eastern U.S. should gradually shift east toward the middle and end of next week, resulting in a more zonal, somewhat milder, and wetter pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Pre-frontal showers are becoming few and far between as of 18Z, warranting just an hour or two of -SHRA at MEM and MKL. TUP may have some light showers until later in the afternoon, but the overall trend is precip coming to a close. With the tightened pressure gradient associated with the frontal passage, expect gusty north winds up to 25 kts today. Winds should settle more into a northwesterly pattern by 00Z and diminish to 10 kts or less. Already seeing cloud cover clearing from northwest to southeast behind the front so should only have a few hours of MVFR CIGs before all sites return to VFR through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1154 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Dry weather and below normal temperatures will prevail through the period. Minimum relative humidities will dip to around 30 percent most days. The 20 foot winds are expected to exceed 10 mph across parts of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this weekend, though the cold temperatures should mitigate any fire danger.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.