textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist Thursday. Beginning Friday dry weather will prevail through the seven day forecast period.

- Temperatures will remain around normal through the workweek. By the weekend and into next week, temperatures will begin to warm well above normal with daytime highs largely in the upper 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

After a semi-active weather day across portions of the Mid-South, we have trended calmer over the past few hours. Taking a look at the latest KNQA radar sweep, a few light showers exist over northwest Mississippi and the Delta region with much of the convection to our south. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will remain across areas mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line through the overnight hours. While areas north will remain largely rainfree. The severe weather window has primarily closed for the evening. Narrow dewpoint depressions, saturated soils, and calm winds along a low- level inversion will lead to pretty decent fog potential overnight. Though Dense Fog is not anticipated at this time, those with an early morning commute should use extra caution. Any fog that does develop will begin to burn off shortly after sunrise as mixing occurs.

Heading into the daytime hours tomorrow, we're looking pretty dry across the Mid-South, however, as we remain under a quasi- northwest flow regime, a few afternoon pop-up thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially with peak daytime heating. By Friday, drier air will begin to filter in from the Midwest, drying us out and slightly decreasing our dewpoints. This will be the trend through at least midweek as upper-level subtropical ridging, currently centered over the four corners region, begins to build and broaden east. With a broadening ridge, comes a warming trend. We'll begin flirting with above normal temperatures by Saturday with highs in the mid 90s. Come Monday, ensemble members are hinting at the aforementioned ridge nearly center over us at a forecasted 594dam. Heat Advisory potential will be evaluated on a day to day basis next week as dewpoints will primarily drive 105+F heat indice potential. The latest 8-14 day outlook has a 70- 80% chance of us leaning above normal moving through the first week of September. The dog days of summer are not over.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Primary concern overnight will be fog potential at MKL and TUP. IFR VIS appears likely once the cirrostratus shield from convection over the Arklamiss thins out. VFR will prevail on Thursday, as the mixing layer deepens with surface heating, and following the passage of weak behind a weak cold front in the morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Fog potential will be increased overnight as winds go calm along previously saturated soils. Fire weather concerns will remain low through Friday as minimum relative humidity values remain near or above 40%. Dry air will begin to filter in from the Midwest by the weekend, drying us out and potentially leading to marginal fire weather concerns as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to fall at or below 35%. 20 ft winds are expected to remain light for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.