textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Summer heat will return to the Mid-South with highs in the low to middle 90s for the next week. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Friday for the Delta region.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return to northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Surface analysis as of 9 PM shows remnants of a cut-off low over northern Georgia. Weak ridging continues to impinge on the Mid- South which kept skies clear and allowed temperatures to warm to seasonal temperatures earlier in the day. Skies should remain mostly clear overnight, with light to calm winds, and will cool nicely overnight into Thursday morning with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The upper level ridge will continue to expand through the coming days and continue to raise temperatures to the low to mid 90s for the next several days. Southerly flow will increase as well, and bring an influx of moisture and raise humidity levels. Triple digit heat indices are likely to return to the Delta region tomorrow and continue to spread geographically through the weekend. As moisture advection increases, heat headlines are not out of the question. A Heat Advisory could be needed as early as Friday in the Delta, but will continue to monitor as hi-res guidance comes into view.

Weak troughing will sweep across the Great Lakes this weekend. Resulting cloud cover may temper temperatures and heat indices slightly, though exact impacts remain uncertain. The exact path of this trough is still uncertain, but a few showers could develop Friday night into Saturday. A large area of high pressure is anticipated to build and encompass most of the southeast beginning Sunday. Hot and humid conditions will continue under this regime with diurnally driven thunderstorms likely each afternoon. While the region is no stranger to hot and humid weather, be sure to hydrate early and practice heat safety guidelines as we return to summer-like temperatures.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Light winds and VFR remain on tap for today, courtesy of strong mid-level ridging. This ridging will keep the TSRA track to our north, over the northern Ozarks and lower Ohio River Valley.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Dead 10-hr fuel moisture remains low and is anticipated to fall near 10% for areas along and south of I-40 for Thursday, August 6. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40% and 20 ft winds remain light. The lack of widespread rainfall over the coming days will prevent significant recovery in fuel moisture levels.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.