textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across most of the Mid-South. Damaging winds is the primary threat, with a secondary threat for a tornado, and localized heavy rainfall.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air expected by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Severe thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure system pushes across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of thunderstorm activity, the pressure gradient will tighten across the forecast area. The strongest gradient winds will exist west of the Mississippi River over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Sustained speeds of 25 mph with gusts nearing 40 mph are forecast. As such, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 8AM for the aforementioned areas.

A typical cool season severe weather setup will be in place by Tuesday afternoon, characterized by bulk shear of 40 kts and MUCAPE approaching 450 J/kg. The main environmental factors storms will need to overcome for higher severe thresholds will be meager lapse rates and persistent cloud cover. The most likely scenario for Tuesday afternoon and evening is a messy line of storms that primarily poses a damaging wind threat for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Looping hodographs and decent low-level turning indicate potential for brief, spin-up tornadoes embedded within the parent line of storms. As this activity crosses the river, it will encounter less instability. A few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out through the overnight hours, but the primary severe weather window will be through late evening. Thereafter, the threat transitions to more of a flooding concern as precipitable water values approach the 99th percentile. Storm total rainfall remains between one and two inches.

Dry air will filter in behind Tuesday's system with temperatures remaining climatologically normal for early November. By the end of the week, a shortwave will eject out of the Rockies. This system will bring a cold front into the Mid-South on Friday. Given the dry air in place, widespread rainfall is not anticipated with FROPA. Instead, expect cooler temperatures through the weekend as daily highs remain in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. There is potential for frost development both Sunday and Monday mornings. However, since the Mid-South entered the end of its growing season on November 1st, no frost headlines are anticipated.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across the airspace, but some prefrontal MVFR cigs will likely creep back into the area Tuesday morning for JBR and TUP. Otherwise, the two concerns for the TAF period will be gusty, southeasterly winds throughout most of the period and the frontal boundary poised to move through from west to east in the afternoon to evening. Tried to time out the most likely period of vis drops with -TSRA, but some fluctuations are expected. As for wind speeds, gusts up to 25 to 30 kts can be expected through much of Tuesday, falling back below 15 kts near the end of the current period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, lasting into Wednesday morning. While precipitation chances will dwindle thereafter, moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.