textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Temperatures will rebound to the upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday, accompanied by an increase in humidity.

- Tropical activity is being monitored, with the potential for heavy rainfall across parts of north Mississippi on Thursday and Friday.

- A few severe storms may occur Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front pushes into the region.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Another beautiful evening is underway across the Mid-South with mild temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Skies are clear and temps will drop into the 60s at most locations by morning. Wednesday looks warm and windy as weak high pressure shifts east and low pressure moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will bring warmer temperatures into the region with highs around 90, along with higher humidities. Also, a strengthening pressure gradient will result in gusty winds. A Wind Advisory will be issued for northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. We remain between systems on Wednesday so expect a rain free day.

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone One over the northwest Gulf. This system is expected to track northeast along the Texas Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a cold front will push into the area and interact with the remnants of the tropical system. The tropical system has been tracking further south with each set of model runs and most of the heavier totals will remain south and east of the Mid-South. Areas south of a Charleston to Tupelo line could see 1-2 inches of rain Thursday and Friday. Elsewhere, the cold front will generate up to an inch of rain and potentially some severe weather. Joint probabilities off the LREF have a 30-50% chance of greater than 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and greater than 30 knots of shear over the northern 2/3rd of the Mid-South. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) over most of the Mid-South with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) over part of northwest Tennessee for Thursday and Thursday night.

The cold front will push through on Friday and stall either south of the area or across north Mississippi Friday night into Saturday morning. The front will start lifting north as a warm front by Saturday afternoon with chances for showers and thunderstorms already returning. Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as another cold front approaches the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Impacts to aviation are expected from both CIGs and winds through the period. An extensive area of MVFR stratus is currently moving north across Mississippi, bringing LIFR impacts to TUP. These clouds are expected to remain and make it further north, potentially bringing MVFR CIGs to MEM through late morning while IFR/LIFR continues at TUP. As the morning progresses, surface winds will increase drastically out of the south-southwest. Winds will gust between 20 to 30 knots through the day at all four terminals. Winds should subside slightly after 00z Thursday, but gusty conditions will continue through the end of the period with LLWS potential at JBR/MKL. A few rain showers are possible around TUP in the last 12 hours of the period. However, forecast confidence is too low to include at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Recent wetting rains and elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will return by the end of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.