textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms is in place Monday afternoon, mainly south of the I-40 corridor, with a threat for very large hail (up to 2 inches) and damaging winds.

- The active pattern continues through midweek, with severe storm chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near-normal temperatures return by the end of the week with dry conditions persisting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A low amplitude shortwave and accompanying 40 kt speed max will approach the Mid-South today, allowing lapse rates to steepen above 7 C/km. The latest CAMs depict storms firing near the Ark- La-Tex by midday and pushing eastward. Ahead of this activity, the Mid-South will house around 750 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear in excess of 45 kts. Small, organized clusters will impact the Mid-South in the early afternoon and pose a damaging wind and large hail threat. A few of the CAMs bring semi-discrete supercells into the Mid-South. If this does occur, large hail will be the primary concern. Fortunately, the severe weather window will quickly come to a close after sunset with lingering showers pushing into the overnight hours.

Unsettled weather will persist through midweek as a large upper level low ejects out of Baja California on Tuesday. A messy synoptic pattern will emerge at this time as the aforementioned low opens up and phases with a northern stream trough. Guidance continues to show frontogenesis over the Plains by midday as these features interact. A large warm sector will stretch from Texas to the Midwest with storms firing out ahead of and along the front. Guidance keeps the bulk of this activity west of the forecast area on Tuesday, though a rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for areas along and north of I-40 to account for this threat. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns.

Severe weather chances continue into Wednesday as the aforementioned features trek east. Kinematics will be plentiful for this time of year, suggesting organized severe weather potential. However, ongoing morning showers will limit destabilization through the afternoon. A typical high shear, low CAPE environment is looking more likely for Wednesday. The greatest severe weather chances exist in north Mississippi, where storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. Given how models are trending, wouldn't be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center trimmed the Slight Risk back in later issuances.

By Thursday, the aforementioned front will finally clear the Mid- South. Dry conditions will return by mid-morning with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The end of the week into the weekend will remain dry underneath zonal flow aloft. Long range models are beginning to pick up on another frontal passage late Sunday into Monday. This would bring our next shot of rain, but it remains too early to pinpoint details. Stay tuned.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Patchy dense fog will affect MKL through about 14z. CAMs continue to focus on the earlier arrival of TSRAs and continued that theme in the TAFs. MEM and TUP will be the most affected by the TSRAs, with lesser chances at JBR and MKL. Medium to high confidence (60- 70%) that lower cigs (IFR and MVFR) will linger through the day and through tonight across the forecast area.

South winds will increase to 10-12 kts this morning with higher gusts to around 20 kts into this afternoon, except at TUP where winds will be lighter outside of TSRAs. Winds will diminish tonight though will remain above threshold at MEM.

TUP TAF will carry an AMD NOT SKED. TUP METAR is missing some weather elements.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Occasionally gusty winds up to 20 mph will occur each day this week. However, widespread wetting rainfall will increase fuel moisture and maintain elevated relative humidity, limiting fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ002>006- 008-009-012>017-021>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ053>055- 089>092.