textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast through early Wednesday morning along and west of the Mississippi River.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) is also in place for east central Arkansas and most of north Mississippi Wednesday afternoon.

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Severe weather remains on track for the Midsouth this evening and early overnight, but with uncertainties concerning convective instability and inhibition. These elements will affect thunderstorm initiation timing and location, and ultimately thunderstorm intensity.

Outside of the aforementioned questions, the remainder of the parameter space will be supportive of supercell thunderstorms, including isolated strong tornadoes. Following sunset, 925mb winds will strengthen to near 50kt, as the Midsouth is positioned under the right entrance region of a speed max strengthening to 160kt over the Ohio Valley. Effective SRH over eastern AR and far west TN will range between 300-400 m2/s2, with plentiful streamwise vorticity to support tornadogenesis in the lowest 3km.

In the short term, late morning GOES visible imagery showed considerable cloudiness over AR and northern LA. This cloud cover and the morning MCS that pass through will limit surface-based convective instability into the afternoon, and may delay the onset of discrete thunderstorms over central and northern AR toward sunset.

For the mid/late evening hours, 12Z HREF point soundings for Jonesboro and Memphis depicted a pronounced EML (elevated mixed layer) based around 750mb. This warm layer will eventually erode as the EML translates southeast, but this erosion may occur after low level convective instability has waned and decreasing midlevel lapse rates reduce updraft strength potential. The 15Z HRRR supports a later convective initiation scenario, and tending toward more of a QLCS convective mode. Such a scenario would support more of a damaging wind, and short-lived tornadoes threat. Flash flooding will be a concern overnight, given the aforementioned low level jet, PWAT near 1.7 inches (90th percentile) and the potential for storms to train along a slow- moving cold front. HREF probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rainfall through Wednesday morning peak near 55% over the Memphis metro area. This amount is inclusive of the rain that fell earlier this morning. Following coordination with WPC, Memphis and surrounding areas have been upgraded to a Slight Risk for the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Wednesday's convective mode will reside primarily along the cold front over east central AR and north MS. The eventual position of the front is somewhat in question, given uncertainties in storm coverage tonight and the resultant outflow. HREF soundings for TUP depict effective SRH around 100 m2/s2, along with adiabatic thermal profile tending toward moist adiabatic. Deep layer shear remains an impressive 60kt, which given sufficient afternoon instability, would result in well-organized multi-cell clusters capable of producing damaging winds. The cold front and attendant storms should exit north MS in the late afternoon or early evening.

Cool and dry conditions will prevail Wednesday night through Friday. Rain chances return over the weekend, under west/northwest flow aloft and elevated moisture from the Gulf lifting north through the lower MS River Valley.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mostly scattered showers occupy the airspace over the Mid-South as of 2330z with MVFR CIGs at MKL/JBR. MVFR should begin to expand in coverage through the first 6 hours of the TAF period alongside precipitation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west and enter the region by 02z - 03z this evening, tracking through all four terminals through tonight. MVFR CIGs will continue to fall, dropping into IFR at MEM/JBR/MKL around 09z, with TUP following suit by 12z. IFR is expected to continue through the end of the period. Storms will reach a lull between 12z - 18z with showers remaining across the region. TSRA coverage will again increase past 18z Wednesday at MEM/TUP, but uncertainty regarding the spatial still remains. So, opted for PROB30s for now, but will reevaluate in the 06z TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

There are minimal fire weather concerns over the next 7 days. Humidity and widespread wetting rain chances will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the entire Mid- South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday and Friday. There is a low to medium chance that minimum relative humidity values dip below 40% on Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.