textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Thunderstorms will move into the Midsouth this morning, mainly after sunrise. Damaging winds will be possible, particularly in the mid to late morning over areas to the east of Memphis..

- A second round of thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and through the evening. There remains some uncertainty regarding where these storms will track. But it appears that eastern Arkansas, the Memphis area, and northwest Mississippi will have the greatest storm chances. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat. A Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for these areas.

- Dry weather will return for the weekend, with temperatures warming to well above normal. Daytime high temperatures early next week will prevail in the upper 90s over most of the Midsouth.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Primary concern remains location and timing of thunderstorms Wednesday. CAMs have been in decent agreement in developing storms over central MO in the pre-dawn hours, near a 925mb warm front. 00Z SGF sounding showed a warm layer near 700mb that will need to be displaced by height falls overnight. Post-00Z runs of the HRRR have turned dry, but most of the CAMs, including the HREF and REFS, suggest storms will initiate southwest of St. Louis, and move into the bootheel and northwest TN by midmorning. 00Z HRRR soundings over west TN depict DCAPE less than 700 J/kg, but MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by noon. 35-40KT of deep layer shear should help storms stay organized, assuming they develop upstream earlier in the morning.

MLCAPE should recover though late afternoon, particularly along and west of the MS River. CAMs have come into better alignment depicting the bulk of storms passing central AR, with a few storms tracking through eastern AR, southwest TN and northwest MS. DCAPE will be more favorable in the late afternoon and evening, approaching 1000 J/kg over eastern AR. Storms should exit MS late Wednesday evening. A few elevated storms may follow late Wednesday night east of the MS River, associated with the passage of a midlevel trough. A weak stationary front may serve as a focus for isolated afternoon thunderstorms over northeast MS and areas of TN near the TN River. Latest NBM guidance suggests mostly clear skies for the late Thursday evening lunar eclipse, though clouds may linger over northeast MS.

Hot and dry weather appears on the near horizon, as an upper ridge over NM and AZ expands eastward into the Midsouth by Sunday. We remain in close proximity to the ridge center through midweek, with daytime temperatures warming to the upper 90s and heat indices 100-105, slightly higher over the delta.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA will impact the Mid-South through this evening. Current development over southern IL and western AR will expand along the I-40 corridor as diurnal heating increases, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Included PROB30 for MEM, MKL, and JBR through midday; higher confidence in area-wide TSRA later this afternoon and evening. Convection should diminish after sunset. Patchy BR possible near MKL and TUP tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Early morning patchy fog will give way to scattered daytime thunderstorms today and this evening. Isolated thunderstorms may linger over northeast Mississippi on Thursday. Otherwise, the pattern will remain dry through the weekend and early next week, as temperatures prevail well above normal.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.