textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and may continue into the overnight hours Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern and heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Mississippi Delta through 8PM today for heat indices above 105 degrees.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KNQA is just beginning to pick up what will become our first of two rounds of strong to severe storms this evening/overnight. CAMs are really struggling to resolve the timing of the first round; discrepancies up to 6 hours are noted between the HRRR and the FV3. It's hard to describe one as an outlier over another since the entire suite of short-term models all has a vastly different solution for timing and locations affected. Taking a more ensemble approach to the forecast leads us to a general window of about 4PM to 11PM for the initial push of quasi- linearly organized storms along the first surface boundary. These storms will only have about 30 kts of bulk shear to work with (weak to mid-range), but with DCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg north of I-40, strong downdrafts will be a primary threat on the leading edge. There is a secondary threat of large hail, but confidence is much lower for this.

Similar to Friday's torrential downpours, PWATs over 2 inches will support extremely efficient rainfall-producers tonight. This is nearing the upper echelon of climatology for moisture in the column, which will manifest in heavy rainfall rates. Areas that received 4+ inches of rainfall Friday (Paris TN, Memphis TN, Lexa AR) will be particularly vulnerable to flooding. While this first boundary is fairly progressive in its forward propagation, the storm motions along the boundary itself may result in training storms. If this happens, flash flooding will emerge as another primary threat. After the first wave of showers and thunderstorms, model consensus diverges again. The HRRR is really the only CAM that simulates another bonafide line of storms holding together this far east in the 2AM to 6AM time frame along the actual cold front. Most other models confine that second round to the ArkLaTex region overnight, keeping just a few straggling showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Mid-South. Due to the noteworthy uncertainty, we will continue to message the possibility of two distinct rounds, noting that confidence is lower for the overnight round.

With hot and muggy conditions on deck this afternoon ahead of the front, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the MS Delta through 8PM. There was a low chance (20-30%) of meeting the 105 degree heat index criteria for Memphis and a few surrounding counties, but given the anecdotal evidence of heat indices being overestimated in the NBM the last few days, opted to leave the metro out and focus on the Delta where oppressive heat is almost a given. After the cold front moves through on Sunday, temperatures and resultant heat indices take a much-appreciated dip back to below normal for a few days in the wake of a cool airmass. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 80s Sunday through Tuesday. The upper level pattern starts to level back out and we start to creep back up to near normal summer heat by midweek.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening at JBR, MEM and MKL, becoming predominately light showers after 06Z. Anticipate a lull in activity from 06Z through mid-morning prior to the development of a second round of convection. Due to limited confidence regarding precise timing and spatial coverage, PROB30 groups have been utilized for this evening and the 15-18Z window in lieu of prevailing TS. A cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon will result in a wind shift and diminishing convective potential after 18Z for KMEM, KJBR, and KMKL, though convection will likely linger at KTUP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049- 058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...None.