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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the Mid- South for late tonight into Sunday morning and Sunday night into Monday morning for dangerous wind chills.

- Wind chills will drop into the teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings. Temperatures will remain below freezing for a period of 24 to 36 hours.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern continues to warm.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Mild weather continues this morning with patchy areas of fog across our northern counties and sunny, dry weather elsewhere. Temperatures will rise further into this afternoon with widespread highs in the upper 40s to low 60s, apart from areas with persistent cloud cover and/or fog, which will keep highs in the low 40s. Weak low level WAA brings a 20% chance of rain to northern Mississippi this afternoon. Looking more broadly, the upper pattern still consists of a North Atlantic trough and a long wave ridge to our west. So, apart from the isolated WAA showers this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry through this weekend.

The most impactful weather story this weekend remains the bitter cold that is well on its way to the Mid-South. A strong, Arctic cold front is currently plunging south across the central CONUS and will reach the Mid-South this evening and will usher in a strong 1040+ mb high Sunday and Monday. A sharp transition from mild weather to cold is expected with temperatures dropping 15- 20 degrees in a matter of hours. By 10z, most of the region will be experiencing temperatures below 20 F, possibly approaching 10 F. Strong winds will also accompany the frontal passage and drop wind chills into the single digits as far south as north Mississippi. Some areas in Western Tennessee will see wind chills below 0 F. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of eastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northern Mississippi tonight through 18z Sunday. Temperatures throughout Sunday will not rise above freezing with many locations expected to see highs in the upper teens and 20s with wind chills in the teens.

High pressure will continue to slide south and east into Sunday night with winds steadily decreasing until nearly calm. However, temperatures will be allowed to radiationally cool more efficiently than Sunday night. Therefore, temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits with little wind chills from winds. Across northern Mississippi, confidence is highest that temperatures will once again reach below our Cold Weather Advisory criteria of 10 F. As such, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of north Mississippi. Areas to the north could be included in a later forecast period, but confidence in temperatures dropping enough is too low at this time. Temperatures will warm up quickly into Monday morning with temperatures above freezing by early Monday afternoon and dry conditions.

After Monday, the forecast warms very quickly with Tuesday's highs in the 40s and 50s, increasing further Wednesday into the 50s and 60s. At the same time, the upper pattern will begin to flatten out as the western ridge weakens. Ensemble and determinist guidance has begun to gain confidence in a western trough exiting the Rockies Wednesday with ample WAA ahead. Moisture will increase dramatically as well with PWATs over 1" on Thursday with a frontal passage. Therefore, rain is possible along the front with NBM PoPs giving a 50%-70% chance of precipitation Thursday. The bulk of cooler upper air will remain well north of the region, keeping instability very limited with MUCAPE only reaching around 100 J/kg to 200 J/kg on both the GFS and ECMWF. So, some thunder is possible but organized convection is not expected. After Thursday, ensembles remain confident that a zonal pattern will begin and last through the end of the period with mild weather and mostly dry conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Gusty north winds will remain the primary impact this evening, behind a surging, secondary cold front. This front was near a UNO to PAH line at 23Z, and represented the leading edge of Arctic air.

HREF depicts IFR CIG probabilities below 20 percent this evening, but there will likely be occasional CIGs below FL020 fuel alternate threshold immediately following the Arctic cold frontal passage.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

An arctic cold front will traverse the area Saturday evening bringing very dry and cold air. Minimum RH values beginning Sunday will hover around 25% with bitter cold temperatures. Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-60% chance of wetting rains.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for ARZ028-036.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>006-008-009-012>017.

Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.