textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s this weekend.

- Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week as temperatures remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Saturday's forecast will largely be a repeat of Friday, though just a tad warmer. The upper level pattern will begin to deamplify and become almost zonal throughout the weekend, allowing the surface features to have more of a dominant influence. Forecast surface analyses depict a strong surface high to remain parked over the FL Peninsula over the weekend, leading to persistent southwest flow for the Mid-South. This return flow will maximize on Sunday afternoon, coinciding with being on the warm side of a frontal boundary as it approaches. The combination of these two features translates to record-breaking warmth over the weekend, a whopping 15-20 degrees above normal for late March. Each of our four climate sites are slated to either tie or break their record highs (83 at MEM, 82 at MKL, 88 at JBR, 83 at TUP) on Sunday afternoon. Saturday's highs may encroach on record territory as well, but Sunday is really the slam dunk.

Due to the zonal orientation of the weak cold front on Sunday evening, little to no moisture advection will be able to occur ahead of its arrival. As a result, the column will most likely be dry enough in the midlevels to promote ample convective inhibition (CIN). This will also keep thunder chances and PoPs are below mentionable thresholds (15%) during FROPA. After the front, temperatures very briefly plunge back to near normal on Monday. However, another warmup is on the horizon as quasi-zonal flow aloft returns with southerly flow at the surface. Another upper level ridge over the Four Corners will eventually slide eastward toward the end of next week, almost identical to the setup for this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty southwest winds around 20 kts will continue today. Occasionally gusty winds will persist overnight at MEM and MKL due to no appreciable pressure gradient changes.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

MinRH values will remain in the 30% to 40% range through the weekend and into early next week. 20ft winds will generally remain below 9 mph Saturday afternoon, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph by Sunday afternoon. No measurable precipitation is expected for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.