textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- A warming trend will bring a medium chance (50-60%) of middle 80s highs across northern Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee this weekend.

- Dry weather will continue into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Morning observations display a weak shortwave trough passing over the region with surface temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Subtle DPVA has produced some rain showers, but high dewpoint depressions, likely up to 850 mb, has prevented more widespread rainfall throughout the region. The shortwave is expected to weaken and move to our east by this afternoon with height rises removing precipitation chances early this afternoon, and mostly sunny, mild weather this evening.

The overall upper pattern will consist of a large, 590+ dm 500 mb ridge over the southwestern CONUS through the rest of the week. Northwesterlies will therefore persist over the region through this period with occasional shortwaves embedded in the synoptic- scale flow. Moisture will also remain low as the surface front from last weekend has scoured higher dewpoints off the Gulf. Medium-range guidance suggests that moisture recovery will be slow as PWATs will generally remain below 1", only marginally increasing above this threshold along the aforementioned shortwaves. Therefore, precipitation chances appear negligible through the forecast period with only low (< 10%) chances for rain showers in areas of weak lift ahead of any shortwaves through the end of the week.

The ridge will slowly propagate eastward and flatten out through this weekend, pushing the polar stream north of the region and attaining a more zonal flow pattern. The remaining ridging will then nose its way into the region above persistent southwesterly surface flow, increasing temperatures drastically Friday and Saturday. High temperatures are currently expected to reach into the upper 70s and low 80s Friday, which will persist Saturday. Additional warming will occur Sunday where some locations could tie or even break high temperature records. For instance, Memphis, whose record high is 83 on Sunday, has a 80% - 90% chance of a high temperature above this value per 13z NBM data. Zooming out with this benchmark, areas outside of the Mississippi River Delta have a 70% - 90% chance of rising above 83, potentially breaking other high temperature records throughout the region.

Models are in agreement that a surface low will develop across the Midwest Saturday and into Sunday, moving east with time and pulling a cold front south into the region Monday. Temperatures will decrease behind the front, which could bring a few sprinkles, but limited moisture is expected to keep mentionable rain chances (20%+) out of the forecast. Behind the front, ensembles appear to bring back ridging over the western CONUS with northwesterlies returning across the Midsouth. Therefore, additional precipitation chances through the end of the forecast next week are low (< 20%).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the TAF period. Gusty south winds will decrease to 4-8 kts tonight, and average between 6-9 kts on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 30% through this afternoon with a 20-30% chance of relative humidity values dropping below 30%. Twenty-foot winds will remain elevated at 10-15 mph through mid-afternoon, decreasing in speed through this evening. Continued weak southerly moisture transport will raise minimum relative humidity values well above 30% Thursday with most areas expected to be between 40% and 50% through at least Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.