textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Well above normal temperatures and predominantly dry weather is expected to continue through Monday with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms early week. Widespread rainfall is not expected.

- A cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, decreasing temperatures from near-record values to closer to normal for late September.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A warm and calm night is on display as a 593 dam ridge, currently centered over the ArkLaTex, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. All four of our climate sites (Jonesboro, Memphis, Jackson, and Tupelo) broke maximum temperature records Saturday with readings in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Sunday will be a near rinse and repeat thanks to this anomalous September ridge. Ridging starts to weaken slightly by Monday as a cut-off upper-low begins to push across the upper Midwest. Near record-breaking heat will still be present Monday, but come Tuesday, we will finally begin to "cool" closer to normal as an attendant cold front begins to dip across the Mid- South. Ahead of this front, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will exist as forecast PWATs begin to increase to around 1.7", nearing the 75th percentile for this time of the year. Though such PWAT values will likely not support heavy downpours, we will appreciate any rainfall after the prolonged dry spell we've been in. Isolated to scattered chances will carry into Tuesday with appreciable rainfall not expected.

For the first time in nearly 50 days, a cooler airmass will filter in behind the leading front, supporting forecast high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s across much of the Mid-South by Wednesday. As far as rain chances are concerned past Tuesday, drier air looks to filter in behind the front, diminishing chances for the latter half of the workweek. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at this trend of cooler temperatures persisting into next weekend with northwest flow building in aloft. Looking ahead, the latest 8-10 day temperature and rainfall outlooks have us only slightly above normal heading into October. We'll gladly welcome this after being well above normal and dry for such an extended period.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Generally light and variable winds will continue through the overnight period, with VFR conditions persisting. Wind speeds will begin to pick up to between 5 to 7 kts through the daytime tomorrow, becoming W/SW. Winds will likely become light and variable once again Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Anomalously hot and dry conditions will persist through Sunday as high pressure remains over the region. A cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain chances Monday and Tuesday, though appreciable rainfall is not expected. Minimum relative humidity values will be less than 35% Sunday with values increasing toaround 50% by Tuesday. 20 ft winds will remain light through the fire weather period. With dry soils, fog is not expected.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.