textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) exists for two rounds of strong to severe storms today. The primary threat for today is damaging winds with secondary threats of large hail and heavy rainfall.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through the workweek.

- Summer-like conditions will return next weekend with daily chances for pop up showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A large outflow boundary, remnant of a decaying MCS, is currently surging south, oriented ESE-WSW across W Tennessee and E Arkansas. While initial convection behind the boundary has been largely subsevere (gusts up to 40 mph), strong potential exists for rapid intensification south of the boundary. Mesoscale analysis indicates extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and 30 knots of bulk shear across SW TN/NE MS, favorable for upscale storm growth. Storms are already intensifying near the TN/MS border. The main threat remains damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and ping pong ball-sized hail under the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which is valid until 7 PM CDT. Uncertainty persists regarding the western extent of significant threats, particularly west of I-55.

Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with today's storm evolution, but the overall trend is for another cluster of showers and thunderstorms to translate south down near the Mississippi River this afternoon into early evening. This solution seems very plausible with a distinct shortwave currently located over SE Missouri. The degree to how severe the thunderstorms may become remains a little unclear. The atmosphere has been largely untouched over NE Arkansas and the MO Bootheel today as the residual outflow boundary could serve as a focus for renewed or intensifying convection late this afternoon. There is still some uncertainty further to the south, where storms trekked through earlier. If storms can arrive before sunset, there will be at least a medium threat of strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

Model guidance is consistent with a backdoor cold front pushing through the entire Mid-South tomorrow. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon on Tuesday for areas south of the I-40 corridor. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is low as upper level shear will be weak.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a nice break from the heat and humidity for this time of year as broad surface high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Both days will feature comfortable humidity levels, light winds, and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will slide east late Thursday and return flow will set up across the region. The upper level pattern will feature mainly zonal flow and rather progressive flow on Friday. Chances for diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend as an upper low near the Baja Peninsula lifts into the Southern Plains and relaxes upper level heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The initial round of -TSRAs has passed north of the region, clearing JBR and MKL as of 18Z. Over the next couple of hours, a stalled front interacting with an outflow boundary sagging southward presents the primary convective threat. Medium potential for TSRA exists at MEM, with a high potential focused on TUP. A second, more scattered round of TSRAs is anticipated this evening, primarily affecting JBR, MEM, and eventually TUP, with lower confidence for MKL. Following the evening convection, winds will become calm under mostly clear skies. This will set the stage for potential visibility restrictions: there is medium confidence for MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to fog development at MKL and TUP, while confidence remains much lower for MEM and JBR.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into early Tuesday morning, with sporadic showers and thunderstorms maintaining high humidity and fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of this week as a cold front moves through the region. Minimum relative humidity values will begin to fall below 50% starting Tuesday afternoon, but sodden vegetation is expected to keep fire danger low. Daily pop up showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend.

AC3

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.