textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Thursday afternoon across portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi. A Heat Advisory remains in place over north-central and northeastern Mississippi.

- Dangerous heat will continue on Friday, with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect area wide.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms is in place on Thursday for locations generally east of the Mississippi River. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Scattered showers continue across the far southwest corner of the area with cloudy skies beginning to clear behind the convection from earlier in the evening. With winds going calm overnight and dew point depressions generally low, I would not be surprised if some patchy fog does develop overnight across areas that saw showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While this likely will not be widespread, it will be something to monitor into the early morning hours on Thursday.

Yet another rinse and repeat forecast is expected across the Mid- South as we remain firmly placed under an upper-level ridge. Similar to today, temperatures will warm fairly rapidly through the daytime. Thursday does appear to likely be the warmest day of the week thus far, with heat headlines continuing areawide. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all locations except for north-central to north-east MS, where a Heat Advisory remains in place. Nonetheless, dangerous heat will continue, so please continue to exercise caution if you must be outside for prolonged periods and take plenty of breaks. Similar to Wednesday, afternoon convection could play spoiler for some of these heat indices Thursday afternoon. Some of the 18Z CAM guidance had backed off a bit on the coverage of the convection for the afternoon, while some of the 00Z guidance continues to bring a band of convection around the high pressure center mainly to locations east of the Mississippi River. The overall environment will be generally similar to what was experienced on Wednesday, with SBCAPE values >3,000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates > 9 C/km, and essentially negligible shear. This would support a pulsy, downburst environment, with DCAPE values well over 1,000 J/kg. PWAT values will be close to 2" as well, which is over the 90th percentile for early July, so heavy rainfall is not out of the question. By Friday, similar conditions will continue with a Heat Advisory in place and high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s. A slightly drier airmass will begin to move in by Saturday, but an additional day of heat headlines may end up being warranted as heat indices will once again approach the middle 100s.

By Sunday into next week, high pressure will remain in place despite the upper-level flow pattern shifting to a more zonal pattern with little to no forcing across the region. We will transition to more of a typical summertime pattern into the middle of next week, with high temperatures remaining near normal in the low to mid 90s. In addition, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase each day, with the best chances (30-40%) in the afternoon to early evening hours. With the little upper-level forcing, do not think there would be any organized severe weather concern. However, with the summertime airmass, a chance of a strong thunderstorm or two with damaging wind gusts could arise. Beyond this period, CPC 8-14 day outlooks continue to highlight above normal temperatures and precipitation are favored. So, it looks like our summertime airmass is here to stay likely through at least the first few weeks of July.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move west-northwest across north MS and portions of southwest TN. This activity will likely make it into MEM between 00-01z. Gusty winds and reduced visibility will accompany this convection. Have opted to change the going PROB30 to a tempo. Maintained the PROB30 at MKL, given the lower confidence in noteworthy impacts. Once this convection dissipates (after sunset), generally VFR conditions will prevail overnight. However, some patchy fog will likely form in areas that picked up rainfall this afternoon. Will be watching this potential at MKL/TUP closely. Another round of afternoon convection is in the forecast for Thursday, but confidence in the coverage of this activity is lower than today, so it will not be mentioned in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected across the Mid-South through the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40% in the afternoons, with daily, isolated shower and thunderstorm chances.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113- 115.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for MSZ001-007-010-011.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001- 007-010-011.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001- 007-010-011.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 012>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.