textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer after midweek, topping out in the low to middle 90s Thursday and Friday.

- Humidity levels will slowly increase as well. Heat indices will climb to near or slightly below Advisory criteria Thursday through Saturday.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Clear skies prevail across the Mid-South as a weakening ridge builds in from the northwest. While a cutoff low over northeast Georgia keeps the Deep South seasonably cool, the ridge has allowed temperatures to rebound locally. Dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through at least midweek.

Highs will climb into the low to mid-90s after Wednesday as southerly flow develops in response to the weakening cutoff low and deepening low pressure over the Southern Plains. This flow will push dew points into the upper 70s by Thursday, driving heat indices into the triple digits. Portions of northwest Mississippi and east-central Arkansas, primarily south of Memphis, may approach Heat Advisory criteria (105F) on Thursday.

A weak trough in northwest flow will increase rain and thunderstorm chances by Friday, though guidance limits PoPs to around 30%, with the highest coverage north of I-40. While this shortwave and associated cloud cover may slightly curb Saturday's temperatures, elevated humidity will maintain triple-digit heat indices across much of the region.

As the trough shifts east, Sunday looks slightly drier and a degree or two warmer, mainly due to the lack of clouds and precipitation. The threat of Heat Advisory conditions will persist into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at MEM and JBR. MKL and TUP have the highest probabilities of MVFR visibilities due to fog overnight under clear skies and calm winds. Any fog should erode shortly after sunrise. Winds will veer through the period, generally remaining 7 kts or less.

KTUP remains AMD NOT SKED due to ongoing communication issues.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40%, with 20 ft winds generally remaining at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.