textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact much of the Mid- South on Saturday with the primary impacts including wind gusts up to 45 mph and periods of heavy rainfall, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of the Mid-South and a Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area east of the Mississippi River.

- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the area by early Sunday. The weather pattern will turn dry and warm through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

As of 8:30 PM this evening, Isaias made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a Category 2 hurricane. We have already seen cloud coverage increase across portions of the Mid-South, with coverage becoming more widespread through early Saturday morning. Looking at observations to our southeast, some heavy rain bands are already moving through Central Alabama with wind speeds already increasing. As things stand currently, gusty winds will begin to move into the Mid-South from the southeast around 4 AM, spreading across the area through Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a small portion of northeast Mississippi, with all other locations across the Mid-South having a Wind Advisory from 4 AM until 8 PM on Saturday. Latest HREF guidance has a very high probability (>90%) for most locations east of the Mississippi River experiencing wind gusts over 40 mph with a medium chance (40 to 60%) of these gusts approaching 50 mph especially over northeast Mississippi. While the main circulation is expected to remain just to our east, gusty winds appear likely for the area. Given the likelihood of sustained winds between 20 to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 50 mph, and the prolonged nature, there will likely be at least some minor wind impacts throughout the day across most of the area.

In addition to the strong wind threat, rain bands will move through throughout the day on Saturday. With the rain threat, there is still significant uncertainty as to if dry air will be able to infiltrate the system, which could lower our total rainfall amounts. There will likely be a sharp cutoff in total rainfall amounts on the western edge of the system, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River where totals will likely fall below an inch. For locations along the MS/AL line and along the TN River, 1 to 3 inches remains likely. With the latest guidance continuing to show a downward trend in precipitation along the Mississippi River, opted to remove some counties from the current watch where precipitation totals will likely fall below an inch. We may be able to destabilize a bit through the morning with a few embedded thunderstorms that could boost rainfall totals, otherwise a much needed rainfall will be what most of the area sees. The bulk of any strong winds and precipitation will begin to move out by Saturday evening, with much of it moving out of the area by midnight.

By Sunday, the parent low of Isaias will be fully enveloped with the upper-level flow regime, making a quick exit to the northeast away from the region. As such, expect for dry conditions by the morning hours, with some warm air beginning to filter in behind the system. With lingering cloudiness across the east, expect for a sharp temperature gradient across the Mid-South with locations along the TN River likely remaining in the mid 70s while locations west of the MS River will likely climb to the upper 80s to low 90s. High pressure will slowly build across the region into the middle of next week, leading to a continued dry weather pattern and temperatures returning to unseasonably warm. High temperatures will span the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area through at least the middle of next week. By the middle to end of next week, high pressure will begin to push eastward with a low pressure system moving off the Rockies. There are still significant differences between ensemble guidance heading into the next week, leading to little confidence in the overall long term forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Lowered overall wind speeds at all sites based on the rapid weakening of Isaias as it moved onshore. The remnants of Isaias will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds up to 40 mph, primarily affecting TUP and MKL through the early evening hours. Winds will likely be enhanced within any banded precipitation that moves through the area, but timing of any of these bands is highly uncertain. LLWS will also likely be confined to TUP and MKL this morning. Cigs are expected to deteriorate to MVFR or IFR levels tonight at MKL and TUP, but some improvement is possible before sunrise. VFR conditions should return at all sites by mid morning Sunday (beyond the 24 hr TAF period).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Moisture from Isaias is moving into the Mid-South, with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading northward through the day. While most of Mid-South will likely see precipitation at some point through the day on Saturday, the highest rainfall amounts will be east of the Mississippi River and into the TN river valley. Gusty winds are expected throughout the day, with wind gusts up to 45 mph. The remnants of Isaias will move out by Sunday, leaving behind a dry and warming trend into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ002>006-009-013>017- 021>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ020>022-050>055- 089>092.