textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and warm conditions will persist into Saturday with highs in the 70s.

- Unsettled weather will return early next week as a front stalls across the region with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day.

- There is a medium chance (50-60%) for heavy rain later next week, mainly across areas along and northwest of I-40.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

00Z upper air analysis depicts an upper-level trough encompassing the central and eastern U.S. while an upper-level ridge axis is present along the West Coast. Evening surface analysis places a 1016 mb surface high over Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau. Clear skies, light to nearly calm winds, and low relative humidity values have resulted in excellent radiational cooling this evening. Temperatures are now in the middle 40s to 50s after afternoon highs in the 70s.

This ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather to the Mid-South into Saturday night. Overnight fog potential is much lower than 24 hours ago with short-term model soundings and HREF probabilities for fog remain very low, mainly over northeast Mississippi. (less than 20% chance) Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday with many locations rising into the middle 70s.

Short term models suggest a series of subtle, but weak shortwave troughs will move through the weak northwest flow aloft across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys Sunday into Monday while a weak cold front will drop into the area. This will bring a return of rain showers to areas mainly north of I-40 Sunday afternoon into Monday with rainfall amounts averaging 0.10 to 0.25 inches along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Long term model trends indicate an active pattern returning to the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as upper-level flow transitions to the southwest and a series of shortwave troughs traverse the region. The weekend front will retreat north as a warm front early next week. It is then expected to become nearly quasi-stationary across portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys as a cutoff upper-level low develops over the Southwest U.S. This front will become nearly parallel to the upper-level flow and provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Long range ensemble probabilities indicate a medium chance (50-60%) of total rainfall exceeding 2 inches mainly over areas along and northwest of I-40 for the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy fog may develop and produce temporary MVFR conditions TUP towards sunrise. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure over Middle Tennessee will bring VFR conditions through the period. Light winds will increase to south winds between 7-11 kts by Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Very dry air will remain across the area into Saturday. Relative humidity values will drop to 30 percent or less along and south of I-40 as temperatures rise into the lower to middle 70s. 20ft winds will remain relatively light. Rain chances will gradually increase into next week as a series of upper-level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.