textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley early Thursday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall across parts of north Mississippi Thursday and Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, level 1 of 5, across all of the Mid-South on Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging wind is the primary concern.

- The wet weather pattern will persist into early next week with temperatures generally slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A potent shortwave trough is swinging across the Upper Midwest at this time, prompting the moderate risk for severe weather over IL/IN associated with the ongoing MCS. This system is also driving strong southerly flow throughout the Lower MS Valley. Wind speeds have increased to 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph across northeast AR and the Bootheel, with winds decreasing farther south and east. This fits nicely with the current Wind Advisory. Humidity is on the increase across the Mid-South today as a marine warm front lifts north across the region. Dewpoints have climbed into the lower 70s on the warm side of this boundary. Cloud cover is fairly widespread, and we've even had a few reports of drizzle in the Memphis area. This is in response to a narrow corridor of isentropic ascent centered in the 300K layer. There is a slight chance (20%) for surface-based showers and thunderstorms across northeast MS this afternoon, but coverage should be rather limited.

The other feature of interest is Tropical Storm Arthur, currently located very near the TX coast. Arthur is forecast to continue moving northeast, making landfall today and weakening as it moves toward the Arklamiss. This system will bring abundant moisture into the region with precipitable water approaching 2.0 inches. Impacts across the Mid-South associated with Arthur will be limited to the locally heavy rainfall. Rain is expected to begin as early as midnight as the outer bands lift into northeast MS. Meanwhile, the remnants of the convection to our north will be on our doorstep (MO/KY borders) by sunrise. With diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by midday and continue well into the evening. That said, capping may limit overall coverage. Deep- layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, but it's not overly impressive and suggests a mixture of ordinary and multicellular storms. The primary concern will be damaging wind. We'll also have locally heavy rainfall on the table given the deep moisture and high melting level. While the bulk of the heavy rainfall will remain well to our south, the HREF LPMM does indicate some pockets of 1-2" rainfall within the more organized convective elements.

Rain chances will continue Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak cold front moves south. Guidance generally stalls this boundary out across north MS on Friday, shifting the higher rain chances accordingly. The severe weather threat remains low, with locally heavy rainfall again being a primary concern. Rain chances ramp up this weekend as a strong shortwave trough traverses the Central Plains. A surface low is progged to move across the Middle MS Valley, enhancing southerly flow and lifting this boundary back to the north. This will open the door for fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. A few strong storms aren't out of the question, especially Sunday as we see mid-level flow increase, slightly enhancing deep-layer shear. That said, modest capping could be the fly in the ointment that limits coverage.

The higher rain chances will linger into early next week as we maintain slight northwesterly flow and abundant column moisture. Expect temperatures to remain generally near or slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, but some areas will likely dip into the low/mid 60s Friday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gusty winds and VFR conditions continue through this evening. Overnight into tomorrow morning, low-level moisture increases, bringing a moderate-to-high chance of MVFR ceilings. On Thursday, a cold front approaching from the northwest, combined with northward-surging Gulf moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur, will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms near all sites. A PROB30 forecast is in effect for all sites, reflecting lower confidence in morning coverage, with higher confidence expected during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

There are no fire weather concerns expected across the Mid-South through the weekend due to recent wetting rains and increasing low-level humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast area wide Thursday, increasing in coverage this weekend. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.