textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- A reinforcing cold front will produce below average temperatures this weekend, featuring highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Portions of West Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and north Mississippi have a 50 to 70 percent chance of freezing temperatures on Sunday morning.

- Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Post frontal low clouds cover a large part of the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys early this afternoon. The cloud deck has pushed to near the TN/MS line. The latest RAP indicates that the deck will gradually push south into north MS and then gradually clear out later tonight from the northeast. High pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will build across the Mid-South this weekend leading to cool and dry conditions. Clearing skies and diminishing winds will result in temps dropping into the 30s across northern parts of the Mid-South later tonight. The latest NBM shows a chance (30-40%) of freezing temps across parts of West Tennessee Saturday morning.

A 1024 mb surface high be centered over the region by Saturday night with chilly temps. Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with plenty of sunshine. Excellent radiational cooling conditions Sunday morning will likely result in a freeze across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee and north Mississippi.

The weather pattern remains fairly benign through the week. High pressure will remain over the area into the middle of the week and temperatures will gradually moderate with highs warming toward 70 degrees and lows in the 40s. A weak upper level disturbance moving through during the Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe could bring a shower. A deep trough developing over the eastern CONUS toward Thursday will send a cold front and perhaps a few showers through the Mid-South before ushering in cooler temperatures and mostly dry weather to close out the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Latest satellite trends show an expansive deck of 3-4 kft VFR clouds spreading south at all sites this evening. This cloud cover is expected to decrease overnight towards Saturday morning. N/NNE winds are anticipated to weaken slightly and average between 6-9 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure will build across the area this weekend. Cool and dry conditions will prevail. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20- ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.