textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Cold and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday morning. The coldest wind chill values are expected early Monday morning, dropping as low as 10 to 15 degrees north of Interstate 40. Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Light rain will spread into the Midsouth on Wednesday, ahead of cold frontal passage Wednesday night. A low chance (less than 20%) exists for very light snow or sleet over northwest Tennessee Wednesday morning, before changing over to light rain.

- Bitterly cold air will arrive by late week and set the stage for wintry weather. There is a medium chance of an impactful winter storm affecting the Mid-South Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

00Z upper-air analysis shows an upper-level trough axis over the central and eastern United States with an upper-level ridge axis along the Pacific West Coast. Evening surface analysis places a cold front from Western Lake Superior back through northwest Missouri and into southern Kansas. Clear skies and very cold temperatures are prevalent across the Mid-South this evening, with 11 PM readings in the 20s areawide.

The aforementioned cold front will drop through the Mid-South overnight into Monday morning, bringing a reinforcement of cold arctic air into the area. Temperatures will remain well below normal into Monday night with highs on Monday ranging from the low 30s north of I-40, and middle 30s to middle 40s south. Lows Monday night will be in the teens to lower 20s. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday as upper-level flow becomes nearly zonal and southerly winds return on the back side of high pressure.

Mid-range models indicate a northern stream shortwave trough will drop into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday as moisture increases across the region. Model soundings indicate relatively dry low-levels at the onset of precipitation and confidence remains low (< 20%) for any wintry precipitation occurring from wet bulb effects until the column saturates and warms above freezing. Average rainfall amounts with this system will be one- quarter to one-half inch with the greatest amounts occurring across north Mississippi.

Latest long range ensemble and deterministic model solutions indicate a southern stream wave currently in the Pacific will move into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by late week, bringing a threat of mixed precipitation to the area. The 12Z LREF probabilities for a trace to one-tenth of an inch of freezing rain are low (20-30%). Probabilities for sleet and snow up to one tenth are low to moderate (30-60%), and (20-40%) for up to one inch. Uncertainty remains with the depth of the cold air and the evolution of the energy ejecting into the region for next weekend, as this system is still several days away.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the airspace through the TAF period. Another reinforcing cold front will push across the Mid- South overnight shifting west winds more north/northwest around sunrise. North/northwest winds will become elevated, 10-12 kts, across all terminals shortly after sunrise with gusts up to 20 kts at JBR.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Very dry polar air will prevail over the Midsouth through Monday. Despite much colder than normal temperatures, minimum relative humidity will range from 25 to 35 percent through the period. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, but moisture return will lag, resulting in minimum relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent over much of the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon. Low chances of wetting rainfall return Wednesday, followed by moderate minimum humidity levels late in the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.