textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1008 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue through Wednesday morning.

- A brief lull in precipitation will occur from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday before showers and thunderstorms return late Friday, and last through the weekend.

- Weekend rain totals will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1008 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A mild evening prevails across the Mid-South ahead of an approaching cold front that was located from western Kentucky into the Missouri Bootheel and extreme northeast Arkansas at 10 pm. Temperatures were in the 60s with dewpoints in the 50s across the Mid-South. Showers continue to develop ahead of the front. The front will sag south through the region overnight, exiting just after sunrise. A few hundred joules of MUCAPE exist, allowing for a <15% chance of thunder overnight. Rainfall amounts overnight into Wednesday morning will generally range from a tenth to a little more than a quarter inch. There is a 20-30% chance that locations along the TN River could pick up a half inch. Any rain will taper off by noon on Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will build into the region behind the cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the 50s and 60s on Wednesday and lows in the 30s on Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night will be slightly warmer and mostly dry.

Rain chances start to build toward the end of the week as a system ejects from the Southwest US and northern Mexico. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will initially start to develop along a frontal boundary lifting through the ARKLATEX region toward the Mid-South. As the upper-level system approaches, surface low pressure will develop along the boundary and track across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The general trend is a slightly more southerly surface low track, which keeps the risk of severe weather very low (<10%). Precipitable water values are forecast to average around the 90th percentile through the weekend, and the latest NBM guidance has a medium chance (30-50%) of more than 2 inches of rain this weekend. The higher probabilities are located across north Mississippi.

Dry and mild weather returns in the wake of the weekend system. Pacific surface high pressure will result in continued above- normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main trend is intermittent -SHRA and MVFR ceilings during this ongoing frontal passage through the overnight period. TUP is the only site with high enough confidence to include IFR ceilings in the TAF, though even then it should only be for a few hours. After FROPA, north winds and VFR conditions quickly return early Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1008 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

There is high confidence that fire weather concerns will remain low during this period due to a combination of wetting rain chances and elevated moisture.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.