textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist daily through Monday. While many areas will see little to no rainfall, the stronger storms will pose a threat of localized flash flooding, especially in the afternoon into evening hours.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of a few strong to severe storms exists on Monday, mainly across northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel.

- A cold front will deliver pleasant, drier, and less humid afternoons and near-normal temperatures, with highs in the mid-80s, beginning next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Muggy conditions are present across the Mid-South with a stratus shield slowly eroding east to west across our forecast area. 15Z surface analysis and latest satellite imagery indicates a surface low rotating over the Delta region and a weak stationary front overlaid just north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. These boundaries brought widespread, with pockets of dense, fog across the Mid-South this morning. The latest KNQA radar sweep displays a few very weak clusters of showers east of the Mississippi River with lift from a weak shortwave amidst persistent moisture. Other than a few occasional light showers, the Mid-South will be mostly dry today with sporadic breaks in the clouds for the sun to peek through. The more sunlight that is able to peek through, the more warm and humid we will become, basically a rinse and repeat of the past several days. As such, tomorrow morning is shaping up to be another foggy one as the surface pattern doesn't change very much along saturated soils, narrow dewpoint depressions, and calm winds. Dense fog is not out of the question, therefore, we will be keeping a close eye for whether or not a Dense Fog Advisory will be warranted. Any fog that does develop should lift shortly after sunrise as mixing occurs.

Tomorrow looks much the same as today as there won't be much of a shift in the surface nor upper-level pattern. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be very sparse through much of the day with muggy conditions persisting once again. By tomorrow evening, however, the aforementioned stationary begins to lift north as a slightly more pronounced shortwave pushes into the Middle Mississippi Valley as the upper-level pattern turns more northwest. CAMs are hinting at a MCS pushing in from the Kansas City area into the Missouri Bootheel, portions of northeast Arkansas, and portions of West Tennessee late tomorrow into early Monday.

As a cold front begins to push in Monday, CAMs are indicating a potential secondary MCS out ahead of it, over the same areas, in the afternoon into evening hours. PWATs will remain around 1.7- 1.9 inches, nearing the 97th percentile for this time of the year. Heavy downpours are anticipated with these systems, leading to another potential localized flash flooding threat Monday. In the afternoon hours, when peak daytime heating occurs, instability will increase with probabilistic guidance, the latest LREF, hinting at around a 40-60% chance of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg and > 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk wind shear. Deterministically, however, forecast soundings are indicating moderate to high CAPE (1500- 2500 J/kg), around 30 kts of effective shear, and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, resulting in a more suitable environment for severe storms. Though, severe chances Monday afternoon into evening will greatly depend on overcoming the CAP, which would inhibit upscale growth for severe storms. However, if the aforementioned severe parameters are able to be realized and the CAP breaks or a MCS traverses the area, a storm or two is not out of the question with primary threats of damaging winds and large hail. Monday will also be a warm one with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with some areas, especially in the delta region, potentially seeing heat indices in excess of 100F.

Behind Monday's cold front, a pattern shift finally begins to occur as a cooler, much drier airmass pushes pushes in behind it. Lowered dewpoints (upper 50s to mid 60s) begin to filter in Tuesday, resulting in increasingly less humid conditions. Weak upper-level ridging will also begin to build over the region keeping mostly dry conditions present through the workweek with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, as low-level moisture increases, a few diurnally driven showers and storms (15% PoPs) may find enough moisture to produce, especially in the afternoons. Though, the pattern will be nowhere near as wet, past Tuesday in comparison.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the first half of the TAF period. There is high confidence in light winds (less than 5 knots) and isolated to scattered SHRAs and TSRAs this afternoon. The highest chances for SHRA and TSRA coverage will be centered near MKL and TUP this afternoon, although a rogue SHRA cannot be ruled out near MEM or JBR. There is high confidence that SHRAs and TSRAs will dissipate around sunset, and that low clouds will clear out. With light winds, low dewpoint depressions, and mainly high-level clouds, there is a medium signal for fog overnight, especially near MKL and TUP. Medium to high confidence for IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYS exists if low-level stratus builds back in from the east to TUP and MKL. Conditions should lift back to VFR by late Sunday morning as upper-level high pressure builds in. SHRA and TSRA coverage will hover around 10% Sunday afternoon at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early next week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into Tuesday, with sporadic showers and thunderstorms maintaining high humidity and fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.