textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday morning for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through Thursday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues around the eastern periphery of a strong, 594+ dm ridge across the western CONUS. At the surface, an area of weak troughing exists from western Oklahoma east into Arkansas with a pool of rich, 70+ F dewpoints over much of Arkansas and areas along the Mississippi River. Low-level isentropic ascent over an elevated frontal boundary between 925- 700 mb will continue to tap into this moisture and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Most of the precipitation, particularly the heaviest, is forecast to remain west of the region with a few showers wandering into portions of eastern Arkansas. Regardless, temperatures are still expected to reach into the low 90s across the majority of the region through this afternoon with heat indices between 90 and 100 F.

Convection to our west will begin to decrease in coverage as the frontal interface begins to weaken this afternoon and into this evening. However, an overnight strengthening is anticipated to take place, temporarily increasing the coverage of precipitation. This new round could trigger thunderstorms as far east as West Tennessee along the Mississippi River. So, have increased PoPs to around 30% across far West Tennessee through tonight. Forecast soundings indicate 1.75" PWATs and 1000 - 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, which would support a localized flooding risk. In terms of severe weather, skinny CAPE profiles and weak bulk shear (< 20 knots) will limit the risk for both damaging winds and hail. So, heavy rain is expected to accompany isolated to scattered thunderstorms into Tuesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to be present across the region, especially the Mississippi River Delta region at sunrise Tuesday. The coverage will lessen with time, leading to a gradual decrease in precipitation and cloud cover. By late morning, temperatures will begin to climb into the low to middle 90s with heat index values above 100 F. NBM data shows that heat index values could climb to 110 F across the Mississippi River Delta in eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. However, remnant cloud cover and/or precipitation could remain into the early afternoon hours, potentially limiting the extent by which afternoon heat index values rise. So, have adjusted the forecast to account for this, bringing heat indices closer to 105 F. Additionally, a Heat Advisory was discussed, but after collaboration with neighboring offices, we have decided to hold off on the issuance of any heat headlines until the details of tonight's precipitation is better resolved.

The upper pattern will continue to remain the same through Tuesday night and into Wednesday with northwest flow at 700 mb and above. An amplified shortwave trough will propagate into the northern Plains and Midwest in the meantime, introducing some subtle background height falls as it nudges the western ridge further west. Furthermore, medium range guidance is showing signs that decaying convection from the Plains may introduce embedded mesoscale troughs into the northwesterly flow that would track over the Mid-South. The same guidance shows high (> 70 F) dewpoints, helping to yield 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, alongside 25 - 35 knots of effective shear. This parameter space would be sufficient for any storms to organize and become severe with predominantly a damaging wind and large hail threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of convection between now and Wednesday morning, which will determine the precise location and impacts from potential afternoon thunderstorms. So, for now, SPC has placed a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for portions of eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, some adjustments to the level and locations outlooked are likely to change in the next 48 hours.

The latter half of the week will see a gradual pattern shift as the shortwave trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes region makes it to the East Coast. Ridging will amplify behind it over the southern CONUS with near 594 dm heights returning to the forecast into next weekend. Temperatures will plateau through the end of the week, but are currently forecast to rise again as the heights return next weekend with highs in the middle to upper 90s Sunday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible as well beyond Wednesday, but will wane in coverage by Saturday where PoPs drop below 10% through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. An approaching upper-level system from the northwest late tonight will support isolated to scattered -SHRAs and -TSRAs moving NNW to SSE. Have introduced PROB30 groups for JBR and MEM to account for this potential impact. Winds will remain light and variable overnight, transitioning to a southerly flow by tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Fire weather danger remains low as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 50% through the next five days with light 20 foot winds. Additionally, scattered wetting rains are expected to continue through Tuesday morning across portions of eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi. There is a 30% chance of lightning accompanying thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday morning with low chances of severe weather. Fog potential remains low across the entire region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.