textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat will continue through at least next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indices ranging from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Largely dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South over at least the next seven days. Overall drought conditions are expected to worsen in the coming weeks with this prolonged hot and dry period.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

This remains a persistence forecast as hot and largely dry conditions continue across the Mid-South. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s will be present each day through the holiday weekend as an anomalous ridge dominates the region for an extended period. An areawide Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8 PM Sunday for heat indices up to 109 F. A small shift in the synoptic pattern will come into fruition late Saturday into early Sunday as this week's upper-level ridging begins to retrograde over the Plains and weak northerly flow begins to move over the eastern Mississippi Valley. A weak backdoor cold front and cold air advection will also begin to make its way across the Mid-South early Sunday. However, without a cold airmass trailing behind this front, we won't see much movement in the way of temperatures, just a wind shift. As far as precipitation goes, increased Gulf moisture in combination with peak daytime heating will allow for a few pop-up showers and storms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Though any precipitation that does fall will not be appreciable. Past tomorrow, dry air trailing behind the front will decrease moisture across the area resulting in little to no precipitation next week.

The latest ensemble members have this ridge building back east by midday Monday. One thing to note, dry air and cold air advection behind the aforementioned front is expected to decrease dewpoints with many areas seeing readings well into the 60s to potential upper 50s Monday and Tuesday. Though the ridge begins to build back east, keeping highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s next workweek, heat indices may be able to skirt just below the 105F Heat Advisory threshold. With prolonged heat and little to no overnight relief, heat headlines may still be warranted past Sunday, but decisions on such will be made in subsequent forecast packages as details become more clear. Bottom line, it is going to remain hot and dry for at least the next 2 weeks. A worsening of drought conditions is expected as this prolonged stent of little to no precipitation persists. The latest CPC 8-14 day outlook has us highlighted in a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures through mid September.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible at MEM, MKL, and TUP late this afternoon during peak heating. However, confidence and coverage will remain too low to include any mention in TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out both this and tomorrow afternoon, but wetting rain is not expected. While winds will remain light and variable over the next several days, hot temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity of 35 to 40 percent. A weak cold front will pass through early Sunday. This front will switch winds to the north/northeast and lower minimum relative humidity to 30 to 35 percent. Due to dry soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected over the next several days. Fire weather danger concerns will increase heading into next week with persistent dry fuels present.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.