textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- There is a low chance of light showers through tonight across Mississippi.

- Cooler and drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- A warm and wet pattern will return early next week with temperatures warming into the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A moisture axis is currently prevalent over the ArkLaMiss region associated with a passing shortwave. Light returns are noted across north Mississippi from KNQA, which will likely be the case for the rest of the evening as the system makes little to no northward progress. Given the steady downward trend of PWATs and PoPs, these showers skirting our southern zones today are not likely to produce more than a few hundredths of an inch at this point.

Behind this shortwave, broad troughing over the central CONUS coupled with surface high pressure spell out a beautiful weekend for the Mid-South. Cooler conditions are expected to continue with highs near 70 each day, which is about 8-10 degrees below normal. With little to no chance of rain and plenty of sunshine, it looks like a great weekend to get out and enjoy the first weekend in May.

Moving into next week, a deep trough is forecast to emerge from the Four Corners. As it amplifies on its trek eastward, a broad moisture axis will start overrunning the Mid-South on Tuesday, marking the return of PoPs above 50%. This timing is already about 12 hours earlier than yesterday's model runs so this trend will be something to monitor. The main cold front accompanying this trough will swing through Wednesday morning, bringing a swath of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Digging into some early parameters from the LREF, the moisture axis along this front will be plenty (PWATs around 1.4 inches) to support deep, moist convection ahead of the FROPA. There is currently about a 40% joint probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts on Wednesday for the MS Delta, which is a good first guess at supportive severe weather ingredients. While it's not looking like a slam dunk severe weather event, will be keeping an eye on this system's evolution and what that entails for us.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period. There is a low chance (20-30%) for rain showers at TUP this evening with JBR, MEM, and MKL remaining dry. N winds will average around 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light tonight and averaging between 7- 9 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to recent wetting rains. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 35 to 40 percent this weekend with 20ft winds remaining light. Saturday presents the next opportunity for widespread RH values to drop near 35%. Humidity will increase early next week as a cold front approaches.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.