textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds are expected on Thursday, particularly along and west of the Mississippi River, which will necessitate a Wind Advisory.

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, including the threat of damaging winds, hail, and a brief tornado, remains in effect Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Abnormally warm temperatures (around 15 degrees above normal) will continue through Friday, with higher rain chances arriving Friday into Saturday with a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 1011mb low over SE Kansas with an attendant quasi-stationary front extending ENE into Carbondale, Illinois and all the way up into New York. Another attendant stationary front extends SW into the Texas Panhandle. Broad high pressure was analyzed across the Northern Plains into the Great Lake region. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the large quasi-stationary front. Aloft, GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a deepening shortwave over the Desert Southwest with broad southwesterly flow along and east of the Rockies.

As the shortwave crosses the Rockies this evening, strong lee side cyclogenesis will occur. This surface low will track northeast into Iowa and slowly fill throughout the day on Thursday. A tightening surface pressure gradient will bring strong southwest winds to areas along and west of the Mississippi River on Thursday. NBM probabilities are in the 70 to 95% range for sustained winds 25 mph or greater over NE Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel and portions of W Tennessee along the Mississippi River. A wind advisory will be needed.

Strong WAA over the Mid-South will result in low to mid 60s dewpoints along and west of the Mississippi River Thursday morning. HREF Joint Probabilities of SBCAPE >500 J/kg, CIN >- 25 J/kg, and 0-6 bulk wind shear > 30 knots are peaking in the 50 to 60 percent range along and west of the Mississippi River by late Thursday afternoon. HRRR point soundings over NE Arkansas show steep low level lapse rates of 8C/km from 0-3 km, suggesting surface based storms by mid to late afternoon. Bulk shear remains moderate in the 30 to 40 knot range with decently curved and compact hodographs. The one limiting factor for robust deep convection is that mid-level lapse rates remain weak around 5.5 to 6 C/km. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk (1/5) risk remains in effect for all hazards including: damaging winds, hail, and a brief tornado. It should be noted that storm coverage will be low, but likely sufficient to produce a couple of stronger storms by late afternoon.

The Mid-South will remain warm and mainly capped both Friday and Saturday as upper level heights build across the region. A closed upper low will eject across the Mississippi Valley early Saturday morning and move into the upper Great Lakes region through early Sunday. As it does, a cold front will move into the region from the west. LREF joint probabilities of CAPE, CIN, and shear remain low across the region (less than 20%), suggesting that strong storms will be confined south of the region.

The long range forecast features broad northwest flow aloft, suggesting a dry and near normal pattern to begin next week. Expect highs in the mid 60s with lows in the 40s each morning. Monday morning's lows look exceptionally cool with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A warming trend will begin midweek.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms situated over northern Mississippi may impact TUP over the next few hours. This activity will diminish quickly after 03Z, leaving the remainder of the Mid-South dry. Overnight, LLWS will impact all sites except for TUP and surface winds will remain gusty. Elevated winds will persist into Thursday with gusts in excess of 30 kts at JBR. Confidence in precise timing and location of precipitation Thursday remains low, though showers will likely impact JBR, MEM, and MKL by midday. Otherwise, a brief MVFR deck of clouds is anticipated overnight but VFR CIGs return after sunrise.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period as MinRH remains above 35%. A few stray showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, though greater wetting rain potential exists late Friday into Saturday with a cold front. Cooler and drier conditions will persist Sunday into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018- 026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.