textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s. Some locations may approach the low 100s by this weekend into early next week.

- Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect through Friday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The dog days of summer are in full swing across the Mid-South. Upper riding will continue to build in from the Southern Plains and become centered over the Mid-South by Thursday, remaining relatively stationary through the weekend. This will result in highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will produce heat index readings above 105F across the region with values of 110F or greater across the Delta through the end of the week. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for the entire Mid-South through 8 pm Friday and will likely be continued through the weekend into next week.

Shortwaves moving through the northwest flow in place to the northeast of the Mid-South are triggering storms across the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. An outflow boundary associated with that convection could reach the Mid-South later today and this evening and trigger a few storms given the amount of instability across the region. There is a Marginal Risk (risk 1 of 5) across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and along the KY/TN border. The main threat from these storms would be damaging winds. Cannot rule out a few diurnal storms elsewhere this afternoon as some of the CAMs are showing development.

As surface winds turn more SW/W this weekend there is a slight lowering of the surface dewpoints into the upper 60s to lower 70s range. However, this really will not provide much relief since the slightly lower dewpoints will allow surface temperatures to climb a little higher with some lower 100s likely this weekend into early next week. Any way you slice it, the weather will be very hot so plan for it and take precautions like spending as much time in the AC as possible. If you have to work outside, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

The ridge weakens very slightly by Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cold front tries to approach from the Ohio Valley. This feature may knock temperatures down slightly over parts of West Tennessee and might kick off some storms but given the strength of the ridge confidence in a break in the heat is low. Global models show the ridge quickly restrengthening after the middle of next week with the heatwave continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will persist at JBR, MKL and TUP through the period due to a strong ridge over the deep South. At MKL, confidence is slightly lower due to an ongoing complex of thunderstorms over Illinois and Indiana. This convection is currently weakening, but outflow from this complex may move into west Tennessee overnight, increasing the chance of thunderstorms as well as midlevel clouds. Confidence still remains low for any sub-VFR conditions. Prevailing winds will remain southwesterly through the period with occasional gusts this afternoon, weakening slightly nocturnally.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A typical, summer-time pattern will continue over the next 7 days with no major fire danger concerns. While conditions will remain dry with little to no meaningful precipitation chances, minimum relative humidity will be above 40 percent with 20 foot winds at or below 10 mph through Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011- 020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>006-008-009- 012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.