textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A nearby stationary front will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly north of I-40. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing an end to the summer-like heat with much cooler fall temperatures.

- Low relative humidity values and elevated 20 ft winds may result in an elevated wildfire danger over portions of the Mid-South on Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

12Z upper air analysis places a 594 dm upper level ridge over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A few subtle shortwaves are traversing the periphery of the upper level ridge over portions of Oklahoma and Missouri. Late morning surface analysis showed a surface high near the Mississippi Gulf Coast and a weak quasi-stationary boundary located just north of the Mid-South over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure are advecting higher surface dewpoints in the 70s into the region with 11 AM temperatures mostly in the lower 80s.

Short-term model trends suggest the aforementioned stationary boundary will drift south into the area this afternoon before retreating back north as a warm front later tonight into Thursday morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours have shown continued weakening and dissipation of rain showers as they entered the Mid-South. Poor low to mid-level lapse rates and weak shear will offset surface based instability rising at or above 2000 J/kg along and north of I-40. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time due to the less than favorable parameter space.

Record warmth is expected to continue into Thursday as temperatures will remain well above normal in the lower 90s. Confidence remains high for a stronger northern stream upper- level trough rotating through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late Thursday night into Friday, pushing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This frontal passage is expected to be mostly dry with model soundings showing a relatively dry moisture profile. Much cooler fall temperatures are expected behind this front with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees on Saturday and lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night. We'll be monitoring the potential for some patchy frost over portions of West Tennessee late Saturday night as winds are anticipated to become light with NBM probabilities of temperatures below 38 degrees averaging between 30-40 percent.

Long-term ensemble and deterministic model trends continue to depict dry weather continuing well into next week as an upper- level ridge builds across the region. Temperatures will gradually increase back above normal into the 80s across many locations by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Primary aviation impacts through the TAF period will be from intermittent SHRA/TSRA at MEM/JBR/MKL. Satellite and radar observations show shallow convection has developed across portions of northeast AR, MO, and West TN. However, convection has remained shallow enough to limit the production of lightning, but a few deeper cells have established themselves across central AR upstream from JBR. So, have removed TSRA from both MEM/MKL, but have left a PROB30 for -TSRA at JBR through this afternoon with only -SHRA at MEM/MKL.

In the meantime, CIGs will remain VFR with 1730z observations at all TAF sites reporting at 5 kft or above. Low-level moisture will begin to leave the region tonight, lifting CIGs further towards 10 kft. By Thursday at 12z, CIGs are expected to have left the region with southwest winds between 5 and 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue into next week as moisture or any precipitation is expected to be limited at best. A strong cold front will pass through the region on Friday. Low relative humidity values between 30-40 percent combined with elevated 20 ft winds may result in an elevated fire danger on Friday over portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Confidence in fire conditions becoming critical on Friday remains low at this time with higher relative humidity mitigating the potential.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.