textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with damaging winds and hail being the primary hazards.

- Another Slight Risk (2/5) is in place for north Mississippi on Wednesday afternoon. Flash flooding and damaging winds are the main threat on Wednesday, especially south of the I-40 corridor.

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

An active weather pattern will kick off overnight, starting with a precursor to the main severe weather threat in the form of a decaying MCS early Tuesday morning. These storms will be losing steam and are not expected to be particularly strong by the time they arrive in the morning, but nonetheless we will have an active day starting bright and early. Southwesterly flow aloft associated with an upper level trough over the Four Corners will promote a broad moisture axis overrunning the Mid-South throughout the day Tuesday, priming the atmosphere for the first of two distinct rounds of severe weather starting Tuesday night.

Per the latest CAMs, there is good agreement on the first round kicking off shortly after 00Z Wed/7PM Tue with a shortwave. Convective mode will most likely be a broken line of storms with a few bowing segments of strong downdrafts. Point soundings suggest clockwise curvature in the hodographs, indicative of a supercellular environment presenting an all-hazards evening. The parameter space is plenty sheared with HREF mean bulk shear on the order of 50 kts supporting organized convection capable of upscale growth. Instability has a bit more of a spread; the interquartile range (25th to 75th percentile) for SBCAPE is over 400 J/kg during the convection late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, revealing some uncertainty in the storms' maximum intensity. IF there is more available instability, the regime will be more balanced and thus the storms have a higher intensity ceiling. If the forecast 100-150 J/kg of CIN comes to fruition, we may have more of a conditional threat on our hands. Regardless, lapse rates and low level shear profiles support large hail and embedded tornadoes as well.

After the first round clears the area, there will be a brief break on Wednesday morning while the actual cold front catches up. Wednesday's severe thunderstorm forecast is also contingent on where the synoptic front stalls early in the day. Current hi res forecasts suggest it will stall just south of I-40 on Wednesday morning and reinvigorate in the afternoon. Moisture transport along this boundary will be extremely efficient aided by PWATs near 2 inches (above the 99th percentile). With a deep layer flow nearly parallel to the front, a mostly linear storm mode is expected. Given the slow-moving advancement of the front and the nearly parallel steering flow, the main threats are expected to be flash flooding with damaging winds through late afternoon. The QPF through Wednesday night is generally in the 1- 2 inch range, but several factors including training storms and efficient rainfall rates will most likely contribute to locally higher axes within this storm total forecast. Expect storms to finally clear the area around midnight Thursday morning.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions once again return on Thursday and Friday. However, this break will be short-lived. Another cold front (albeit weak) is forecast to swing through on Saturday, promoting a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Little to no moisture return is available preceding the weekend's front, so any convection is expected to be shallow and weak.

CAD

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions continue through at least 12Z Tuesday. The 00z cams are a little more vigorous with the morning MCS, and as a result, we added TSRA to the tempo in the MEM TAF. A break in activity is expected after the MCS decays by late morning/early afternoon. IFR conditions are expected to develop at JBR with MVFR conditions at MEM and MKL. Gusty south winds will prevail through the day at 12-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. Confidence in the timing of the second round of convection is increasing as a cold front sinks southward. A PROB30 has been added to all TAF sites except TUP where TSRAs will wait until after 06z Wed. After the front passes through, around 07z Wed, ceilings will drop to IFR at MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

There are minimal fire weather concerns over the next 7 days. Humidity and widespread wetting rain chances will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the entire Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday and Friday. There is a low to medium chance that minimum relative humidity values dip below 40% on Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.