textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Another beautiful, dry day is on display across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the 60s. RH values will continue to dip into the afternoon hours, with high temperatures expected to rise back into the 70s for many today. With the generally low RH values and little to no precipitation recently, elevated fire danger concerns will arise once again this afternoon and through much of the upcoming week. As such, be sure to obey all local burn bans and outdoor burning / activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged.

As far as the rest of the forecast, very little changes are expected. A low pressure system will remain off the East Coast through much of the week, with a building upper-level ridge to our west. This overall pattern will aid to keep the Mid-South dry for the foreseeable future, with temperatures gradually warming through midweek before camping in the upper 70s to low 80s into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will likely persist into the upcoming week as the upper-level ridge drifts eastward across the region. There is some small variability in LREF guidance that could mean the difference of a few degrees with our high temperatures over the weekend. However, high temperatures will remain above-normal regardless. For those curious about the end of the month, the latest 8 to 14 day outlook from CPC does have the Mid-South with above-normal temperatures favored. So, it appears any true cold weather will continue to hold off through at least the end of October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR with minor wind changes. South to southeast winds 5-8 kts this afternoon will weaken and become light overnight. Prevailing winds will become more northeasterly tomorrow, generally at 5kts or below, but some enhanced wind speeds near 8- 10 kts are possible during midday peak heating/mixing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Daily, elevated fire danger conditions will exist each afternoon through this week with low relative humidity and very dry fuels, generally between 9% and 11%. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be in effect until 7 PM this afternoon, with additional statements likely needed for some portions of the area through this week. Red flag warnings are not expected through the period since 20-foot wind speeds will remain below thresholds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.