textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Heat indices are expected to rise as high as 105 degrees across portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi today, warranting a Heat Advisory through 8PM.

- Increased shower and thunderstorm chances return to the Mid-South Friday and will linger into Saturday with a potential localized heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Hot and humid conditions will return to the Mid-South on Friday as a warm front moves across the region. Behind this boundary, dewpoints will quickly increase into the mid and upper 70s with afternoon highs reaching low to mid 90s. Areas within and surrounding the Mississippi Delta have a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching heat indices of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will go into effect at 11 AM for this region.

Outside of the heat, the warm front will also bring increased chances for showers and storms as it moves northeast. This activity is not expected to be severe as the better instability and shear overlap occurs in the evening hours. By sunset, a shortwave trough will swing across the Midwest and eject a cold front towards the Mid-South. Showers and storms will form along the boundary in the evening and persist into the overnight hours. At this time, a low level jet will form and provide around 30 kts of bulk shear. In addition, the environment will have plentiful instability and moisture as PWATs hover around the 99th percentile. A few storms may become severe, posing a damaging wind threat. However, forecast sounding depict increasing convective inhibition around sunset. This may limit the severe window to a few hours. A Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms remains in place for tomorrow evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns.

Pleasant conditions will return to the Mid-South on Saturday as the aforementioned front continues south. The coolest day will be Sunday, where highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s. As we move into next week, upper level ridging develops over the central US. This will increase temperatures locally with highs reaching the low to mid 90s by midweek. At this time, additional heat headlines may be needed. One aspect to watch next week will be a potential cutoff low spinning over the southeast. This feature may keep low end shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, but for now the majority of next week appears dry.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail outside of any convective activity. Short-term guidance suggests a low to medium chance for convective development along a warm front this afternoon into early evening, so we have maintained PROB30 groups at all sites. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region later tonight into early Saturday morning, warranting additional PROB30 coverage. Light SE to S winds will increase and veer to S/SW at 8-11 kts by tonight. Winds will shift NW following the passage of the cold front at JBR and MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Increased humidity and wetting rain chances will mitigate any fire weather concerns throughout the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-048-049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>012-020-021.

TN...None.