textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will prevail through early next week as multiple cold fronts bring polar air into the region.

- Wind chills will drop to the teens and single digits in the pre-dawn hours Sunday through Tuesday, mostly north of Interstate 40.

- Temperatures will moderate by the middle of the work week as rain chances return to the forecast. Portions of West Tennessee could see a light rain mix with or change to light snow for a brief period Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A reinforcing cold front is currently on its way across the region. This secondary boundary will send another blast of cold air to end the weekend. After the front passes, morning lows are expected in the teens to lower 20s, with wind chill values in the single digits and teens Sunday morning. Though this is frigid, it's far enough above Cold Weather Advisory criteria to preclude any cold headlines. Northerly flow along the east side of a surface high will allow efficient CAA throughout the day Sunday, which will keep temperatures in the 30s all afternoon.

The cold pattern gets further reinforced by yet another dry frontal boundary on Monday morning. 500 mb heights for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame range from the 5th to the 20th percentile, which for mid-January is uncomfortably cold. Morning lows are expected in the teens with single digit wind chills through at least Tuesday. During each of these reinforcing frontal passages over the next few days, there is a low probability (less than 15% chance) of light snow showers.

Another weak front is expected to sink across the region on Wednesday evening, bringing back a medium chance (30-50%) for some rain and perhaps a wintry mix. Long range models do not have a good handle on the vertical column this far out, which makes precipitation type challenging to forecast. It looks like the pre and post-frontal showers will occur with the surface temperature right around or just below freezing for a brief period Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecasters will continue to update the precipitation type (p-type) forecast, so stay tuned. After Wednesday's front, the upper level pattern finally becomes more zonal by the end of the week, which will help send temperatures back up to more seasonably cool into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts at JBR this afternoon, aided by a reinforcing cold front. Though southwest winds will be elevated, around 8-10 kts, gusts are not anticipated at MEM/MKL/TUP. A LLJ will dip down this evening resulting in LLWS around 35 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL beginning around 00Z. West/southwest winds will shift northwest overnight, behind the aforementioned front. Gusty north/northwest winds, up to 20 kts, are expected at MEM late Monday morning.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Very dry polar air will prevail over the Midsouth through Monday. Despite much colder than normal temperatures, minimum relative humidity will range from 25 to 35 percent through the period. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, but moisture return will lag, resulting in minimum relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent over much of the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon. Low chances of wetting rainfall return Wednesday night.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.