textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Tuesday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for areas near the Tennessee River late tonight and Tuesday.

- Significant heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South through mid-week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the Mid-South on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A very humid air mass is in place across the Mid-South with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and heat index values well into the 90s. An upper trough extends along the MS River Valley while outflow boundaries from the decaying MCS over NW AR approach from the west. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/kg could support a strong to severe storm with some gusty winds, though the shear is quite weak, and as a result, we do not expect anything too organized. The bigger concern is locally heavy rainfall. PWs around 2 inches, which is at or above the 99.5th percentile, will support intense rainfall rates and localized flash flooding.

By Tuesday, the upper trough will be slowly exiting the region, and upper ridging will be building across the Lower MS Valley. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will linger across the TN River Valley and parts of West TN. Some hi- res models show an MCS developing across SE MO and diving south into the eastern parts of the Mid-South. PWs in those locations will continue to be around 2 inches. Latest hi-res models point toward the TN River Valley and northeast parts of West TN as being the main places to watch. The 12z HREF is showing 1 to 2.5 inches in this area, but the LPMM shows the potential for isolated 4+ inches. We will issue a targeted Flood Watch for the northeast parts of West TN and along the TN River.

Heat will really start to build tomorrow with highs in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for Tuesday for counties along and west of the MS River. The first heat wave of the year is always especially dangerous simply because we are not used to it. Drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing, and stay in the AC when possible.

Upper ridging will prevail Wednesday and Thursday with hot and humid conditions. Heat headlines may need to be issued during this period. An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes during the late week will push a cold front into the area that may stall over the Mid-South this weekend. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms and perhaps some relief from the heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the airspace this afternoon. Precise timing of impacts at terminals remains hard to pinpoint, but the greatest chances will be late this afternoon into the evening hours. A secondary round of showers may develop overnight, but all precipitation will exit the area by midmorning Tuesday. Otherwise, expect gusty winds this afternoon to decrease after sunset and VFR CIGs to persist outside of thunderstorms.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-010- 011.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>003-019- 020-048>052-088-089.

Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for TNZ003- 004-021-022-054-055.