textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- A cold front will swing through the Mid-South today, resulting in showers and a few thunderstorms.

- Near-normal temperatures will be in place Sunday and Monday with increasing fire weather concerns through Tuesday.

- The remainder of the work week will be mostly dry with highs in the low to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A large upper level trough continues to trek across the Upper Mississippi Valley today, ejecting a cold front into the Mid- South. As of 1130 AM, this boundary is pushing through northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Additional showers will continue to form along and ahead of the front as it translates southeast. The 12Z CAMs still show the potential for thunderstorm development over portions of northeast Mississippi this afternoon. This activity will quickly be overtaken by the front, limiting the overall severe weather threat. For the rest of the day, expect intermittent showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

Cool and dry air will continue to filter into the Mid-South overnight, leading to temperatures in the 40s by sunrise Sunday. Relative humidity values through Tuesday will drop to the 25 to 30 percent range, creating heightened fire weather concerns. Given recent wetting rains, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is not anticipated for Sunday and Monday. However, conditions on Tuesday appear favorable for fire weather as surface winds exceed 10 mph and dead fuel moisture reaches 10 percent. There is medium confidence that a fire weather product will be needed at this time. Elevated dewpoints return on Wednesday, ending fire weather concerns.

The remainder of the work week will be warm and dry with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Both the GEFS and ENS depict increasing rain chances this upcoming Friday. The precise mechanism driving these precipitation chances varies, but enough confidence exists to forecast a wet end to the week.

ANS

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Multiple lines of SHRAs will traverse all TAF sites over the next 6 to 8 hours along and near a cold front. A pre-frontal line of -SHRAs, east of MEM, contains some lightning and there is medium confidence that it will build further south near TUP. We continued the tempo group at TUP for -TSRA this afternoon. Elsewhere, -SHRAs and MVFR CIGs will prevail. There is low confidence (<30%) in persistent IFR CIGS, but intermittent periods are anticipated.

Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front through early evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail late tonight and through the end of the period at all sites.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Fire weather concerns will be on the rise through Tuesday as MinRH drops to 25-30% each day. Recent wetting rains will negate the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. However, increasing 20ft winds and dead fuel moisture near 10 percent may lead to fire weather products on Tuesday. Elevated dewpoints return Wednesday, ending fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.