textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Afternoon relative humidity levels will remain low through this afternoon, leading to continued elevated wildfire danger. Use caution if burning outdoors and obey all local burn bans.

- High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range from the upper 80s near the Tennessee River to the mid 90s over delta, southwest of Memphis. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, but a few degrees short of record highs.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the Midsouth on Friday and persist through early Sunday. Total rainfall is expected to range from 1.5 to 3 inches. Dry and seasonal weather is forecast late Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Another sunny day with low humidity was underway across the Midsouth. An upper level ridge axis was evident on GOES water vapor imagery, extending from south TX through the mid-MS River Valley. Extensive mid and high level cloudiness was spilling over this ridge axis. These clouds were associated with a plume of tropical moisture, downstream from a southern branch upper low centered along the CA/AZ border, and Hurricane Polo making landfall in northwest Mexico.

As we move through Wednesday, the upper low will entrain moisture and energy from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, while lifting eastward to NM. The Midsouth will remain under the western periphery of the upper ridge early in the day. As the upper ridge lifts east, southerly return flow will strengthen, while high clouds likely increase. 12Z HREF depicts 60F 2 meter dewpoints warming to the 50s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today. With warmer afternoon temperatures, the net result will be a modest increase in afternoon relative humidity levels.Wildland fire danger along and west of the MS River will be tempered by higher dewpoints and increased high clouds.

Global model consensus depicts the upper low becoming positively- tilted and weakening over the central plains on Thursday. As the remnant upper trough translates eastward on Friday, a right entrance region of an upper jet max will set-up over the Midsouth. This will support strengthening southerly return flow and increasing PWAT, ranging from 1.75 inches over northeast AR, to 2.25 inches around Tupelo, MS Friday morning. This is near the 99th percentile of climatology. 00Z LFEF depicts persistent weak 925-850mb theta-e convergence Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, along a slow southward-advancing frontal zone. This low level convergent zone will drop south of our north MS forecast zones by 12Z Sunday. Sunday may see a few lingering showers south of I-40, aided by modest midlevel lift associated with the departing upper jet core. Overall storm total QPF has come down slightly from yesterday, with amounts ranging from 1.7 inches near Corning, AR to around 3.5 inches around Aberdeen, MS.

Dry conditions appear in store for early next week, with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all terminals. The center of a surface high will shift closer to the East Coast. As a result, winds will veer through the period, light tonight, from the south tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Wildland fire danger will remain elevated this afternoon, with minimum relative humidity of 18 to 25 percent and light 20 foot winds. Modest day to day improvement in minimum relative humidity is forecast Wednesday and Thursday, in advance of wetting rainfall Friday through early Sunday. Dry and seasonal early October weather is expected early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.