textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 - Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lasting through Sunday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below-freezing temperatures early next week.

- The combination of cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens each day early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Mild September-like temperatures reside over the Mid-South late this evening with readings in the low to mid 60s. An unseasonably strong upper ridge will keep near-record warm temperatures over the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next 3 days. Record-tying and record-breaking temperatures are expected to persist each day with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s.

There is high confidence that a significant pattern change will occur late Sunday as a strong Arctic front traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread rainfall will return to the region with QPF values generally less than half an inch. Blustery conditions are expected early next week as temperatures will be nearly 40 degrees cooler than our current warm spell. Furthermore, the combination of the cold air and gusty winds will drop wind chill temperatures into the teens each day.

Broad troughing will encompass the eastern CONUS through Wednesday with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next few hours. A MVFR stratus deck is expected to build in, beginning around 10Z across the airspace. Light winds and decent low-level inversion at TUP will lead to lowered visibilities as fog moves in. Fog should lift by around 16Z as winds increase. Some guidance has us scattering out a bit faster, but confidence was higher in the MVFR conditions sticking into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Southwest winds will pick up with gusts up to 20 kts in the afternoon. A secondary MVFR stratus deck is expected to build in early Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 60% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a blast of Arctic air.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.