textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the Mid-South through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A 594 dm upper ridge is situated over the Mid-South this morning and hot and humid conditions continue. Temperatures are already hitting the mid 90s in some spots with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A few more locations will hit triple digits this afternoon. This ridge will strengthen to 598 dm this weekend as the heat intensifies over the region. The NBM does show a slight drop in dewpoints this weekend, which will likely result in surface temps climbing into the low 100s over more of the area. As the high heat continues day after day with little to no relief at night, the heat risk continues to climb. With that in mind, we have decided to upgrade the entire Mid-South to an Extreme Heat Warning through Sunday evening. We cannot completely rule out a diurnal shower or storm through this weekend, though the strength of the upper ridge will keep almost everyone dry.

Starting early next week, there are some subtle changes that occur with the upper pattern. The upper ridge starts to weaken a touch and retrograde a little toward the Southern Plains. A weak cold front may drop into the northern parts of the Mid-South on Monday and hang around for a couple of days. This may knock temperatures down a few degrees across northern areas and the TN River Valley and also bring a slight chance of showers and storms into the area. However, heat headlines will likely still be needed over a significant part of the Mid-South for much of next week, along and south of wherever that front ends up stalling.

A more significant cool down may be on tap for later next week into next weekend as global models are depicting a significant trough developing over the eastern U.S. and northwesterly upper flow for the Mid-South. However, there is a large spread in guidance by next weekend, so confidence is fairly low, and there are some model solutions that favor upper ridging and heat hanging on across the Mid-South.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates the airspace. Southwest winds will remain light outside of gusts at JBR tomorrow afternoon.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot and prolonged dry conditions continue across the region. Widespread wetting rains are not expected across the Mid-South through the period. Despite the drying of fuels, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 35 percent with light south/southwest 20-foot winds.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.