textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Near-record warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, lasting through Sunday.

- A cold front will bring widespread rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a significant drop to below- freezing temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A weak stationary front was located across Missouri and the western Ohio Valley this morning. This front will lift north today. A 1028 mb surface high is situated along the Gulf coast, while an anomalous upper-level ridge is centered over the western Gulf into the Arklatex. Increasing amounts of sunshine are expected today, and this will lead to near-record high temperatures. This pattern will remain in place through Saturday and perhaps even Sunday. Periods of morning stratus are likely that should break up each afternoon. High temperatures are expected to climb well into the 70s each day, combined with lows only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We used a blend of NBM and NBM75 for high temperatures through Saturday. This will likely lead to record high temperatures each afternoon and record high minimum temperatures each morning.

A strong cold front will push through later on Sunday. Models have slowed this front down, which may allow us to squeak out one more mild and mostly dry day. Severe chances with this front are minimal (<5%), with most of the precipitation becoming post- frontal by Sunday night. QPF amounts are expected to average from one-quarter inch to one-half inch. Monday will be sharply colder and well below normal (10-15 degrees) with highs from the mid 30s along the Kentucky/Missouri border to around 40 across north MS.

Tuesday morning will be the coldest with lows near 20 and wind chills in the teens. Tuesday will be another well below normal day, followed by a gradual warming trend toward midweek. A low confidence shot of cold air is possible later next week, which would keep temps at or slightly below normal, as an upper-level trough remains over the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR forecast apart from intermittent impacts due to patchy fog and mist this morning at JBR and TUP. CIGs should begin to erode this morning as diurnal mixing commences, but there is some uncertainty regarding how widespread this will be. Regardless, CIGs will remain VFR, even if they persist longer than anticipated. VFR will continue through this evening with continued clearing expected. Some HREF members attempt to bring impactful CIGs back to the region after 06z, but have opted to not mention given low confidence.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Fire danger will remain very low all week as humidity will remain elevated in the 60% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure system builds over the region. A medium to high chance of widespread wetting rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, followed by a blast of Arctic air.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.