textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through Friday afternoon amid low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Areawide rain chances return Saturday morning and persist through the Halloween weekend.

- Substantial rainfall will arrive towards the middle of next week as we move into a wet and warm weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Another dry and mild October day across the Mid-South as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures are once again running 7 to 10 degrees above normal with relative humidity values in the low to mid 30s. Elevated fire danger will persist today and tomorrow afternoon as fuels remain extremely dry and relative humidity hovers around the 30 percent threshold.

A significant shift in the weather pattern will occur this weekend as the subtropical jet awakens to our west. The first shortwave will arrive late Friday night, but not have much moisture to work with, resulting in only mid to high level clouds. Several weak perturbations, embedded within the trough, will pivot through the region on Halloween (Saturday). Mainly light showers will accompany these features Saturday afternoon and evening (trick-or-treating time) becoming more widespread overnight. A few rumbles of thunder may occur overnight into Sunday morning, mainly south of I-40, as small ribbon of 200 J/kg of MUCAPE pivots through. Rainfall totals will range from around 1/2 an inch west of the Mississippi River with up to an inch to the east.

A brief break in rainfall will occur on Monday and Tuesday as we remain in between systems. A more robust and deepening trough will develop over the Plains by Tuesday next week. Southerly flow will advect in Gulf moisture into the lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday, resulting in PWATs jumping to around 1.5 inches or near the 99th percentile. The trough is forecast to evolve into a cutoff low and deliver multiple waves of rainfall to the Mid-South Wednesday through late week. NBM precipitation ranges favor 1 to 2 inches with up to 3 inches through this time period. Temperatures will remain mild and above normal through the entire period with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s each day.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light winds from the ESE.

DAVIES

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Friday as a dry air mass remains over the region with afternoon relative humidity values falling to at or just below 30 percent. In addition, 10-hour fuel moisture content values sit around 10 percent. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will remain in place through Friday. Fortunately 20-foot winds will remain at or below 10 mph, precluding higher fire danger.

Wetting rains are forecast to return to the region this weekend with the most beneficial rains falling over northern Mississippi and west Tennessee. Additional rainfall chances are expected into the middle of next week where current rainfall accumulation forecasts call for 1.00" - 2.00" areawide between next Monday and Wednesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.