textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday, before showers and thunderstorms return for the weekend. At this time, severe thunderstorm chances appear low.

- Dry and cool conditions will prevail for Monday, followed by warmer and mostly dry weather through next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Scattered post frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across mainly north Mississippi this evening. This activity will continue to shift to the southeast as weak high pressure continues to build into the region. Thursday will be quite cool as surface high pressure will be centered over the region and clouds will gradually clear out. Dry weather will continue into Friday with warmer temperatures as southerly winds develop around the backside of the high pressure system that will shift toward the Carolinas.

The weekend looks unsettled but not a complete washout. A weak shortwave moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley will bring a chance (20-30%) of showers to areas along the KY/MO borders Friday evening. Meanwhile, an upper low moving across Texas will result in a chance of showers (20-40%) across mainly north Mississippi late Friday night into Saturday. Better chances for precipitation will occur over the second half of the weekend when a more significant shortwave dives into the Mid-South along with an associated cold front. The parameter space ahead of this front is not impressive with regard to severe weather but bares watching. The 12z LREF has joint probabilities of SBCAPE greater than 500 J/kg and shear greater than 30 kts ranging from 20 to 25% south of I-40 while CSU machine learning probabilities for severe weather range from 5 to 15% south of I-40. QPF amounts are not expected to be heavy though most locations should see a solid wetting rain.

High pressure will build in behind the front for Monday with dry and cooler weather. Mostly dry and benign weather is expected for much of next week. Temperatures will warm through the week as winds turn southerly and heights aloft gradually rise as upper- level ridging over the SW U.S. edges eastward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Precipitation should clear the airspace over the next few hours. Current IFR conditions at TUP should lift to VFR shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, predominantly north winds will be around 5- 8 kts before shifting east after 05Z as high pressure slides in.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent on Monday, following likely wetting rainfall on Sunday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.