textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of eastern Arkansas and portions of northwest Mississippi for today and tomorrow. Heat index values are expected to reach between 105F and 109F.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms persists each day through Saturday, particularly for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern with a secondary threat of flooding.

- High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving northeast into the Ohio Valley, with weak disturbances embedded in the northwest flow affecting Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. A large ridge of high pressure is building across the Intermountain West, while surface high pressure dominates much of the CONUS, with a quasi-stationary front stretching from the Northeast to the Great Lakes.

Morning thunderstorms in NE Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, supported by overnight MCS outflow, have left residual cirrus cloud cover across eastern Arkansas and SW Tennessee. This cloud cover will likely suppress afternoon convection while maintaining high heat and humidity. Based on NBM guidance and latest trends, a Heat Advisory has been issued for most of eastern Arkansas and parts of NW Mississippi, effective today and tomorrow. Heat indices will range from 105-109 F.

Through Saturday, the Mid-South will experience a zonal to weak northwest flow pattern, increasing vulnerability to nighttime MCSs and daytime MCVs. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect through Saturday, focusing on areas along and north of the I-40 corridor, where sufficient instability and 15-30 knots of shear favor damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Furthermore, a Flood Watch remains active through late Saturday evening, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall pose a continued flood threat to the northern portion of the region.

An exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the Plains from Sunday through mid-week. LREF guidance indicates 500mb heights near 600 dam-climatological maximums for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The Mid-South will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge, resulting in near- normal temperatures. By mid-week, an easterly wave may move into the area, increasing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect near-normal temperatures with persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered storm activity.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Complicated forecast as the chance of showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern. Isolated storms continue across the region at this time and will keep VCTS remarks in the forecast for the afternoon hours. Confidence in thunderstorms impacting any one terminal this afternoon is quite low. Attention turns a complex of storms that will move southeast across parts of the region this evening into the overnight hours. JBR and MKL stand the best chance of being impacted by the storms and have included a PROB30 to account for thunderstorm potential. Current thinking keeps this complex north of the MEM terminal. Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail with southwesterly to southerly winds generally less than 12 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Fire weather conditions remain stable across the Mid-South for the remainder of the week. Relative humidity levels will stay above 40 percent, accompanied by light winds and daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ026>028-035-036-048- 049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022- 054-055.