textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 718 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 9PM where heat indices will peak between 105 and 109 F. Those without access to adequate cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable.

- The heat wave will continue into early week with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s each day. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the Delta region with a Heat Advisory across the rest of the Mid-South for Monday and Tuesday.

- The heat wave begins to dampen Wednesday as a weak front pushes through, dropping heat indices below 100F for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Another rinse and repeat forecast today as hot and humid conditions persist across the Mid-South. A subtropical ridge, currently centered over the Texas coastline, continues to broaden northwest as Tropical Depression 2 proceeds to churn near the Florida Peninsula. These two systems have placed us, here in the Mid-South, under very weak northwest flow aloft while at the surface we remain under southwest flow with high pressure to our east. The airmass remains very moist with current PWATs in the 1.8-2.2" range and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon highs will span the low to upper 90s warranting a Heat Advisory that will remain in effect through 9PM this evening for areas west of the Mississippi River and portions of north Mississippi and West Tennessee. Embedded shortwave perturbations, persistent moisture, and peak daytime heating, will once again support pop- up showers and storms this afternoon into early evening.

Oppressive heat and humidity will continue and increase in coverage and intensity tomorrow as the aforementioned ridge broadens and nearly centers over the central High Plains. Moisture will also persist keeping our dewpoints high and temperatures will increase with highs in the mid to upper 90s areawide. Areas in the Delta region will see the highest temperatures and dewpoints warranting the issuance of an Extreme Heat Warning in these areas while the rest of the Mid-South will be under a Heat Advisory tomorrow and Tuesday. One thing to note: NBM is currently painting heat indices in excess of 110+ F for many areas west of the Mississippi River, though it looks like NBM continues to have a high bias in these areas. Both the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning have been extended through Tuesday evening with little to no relief overnight. Tuesday will be the warmest over the next 7 days as the ridge begins to broaden east into the Mississippi Valley increasing our highs into the upper 90s across most of the Mid-South. Some areas could even see highs in the lower 100s, especially west of the Mississippi River and in the Delta regions. The Extreme Heat Warning will likely be expanded further north and potentially further east for Tuesday. Be sure to take frequent breaks from the oppressive heat and check in on loved ones over the next two days.

Luckily, relief will be on its way beginning Wednesday as an upper-level low begins to dip south from Ontario into the northeast CONUS pushing us further into a northwest flow regime aloft and the subtropical ridge back west. At the surface, a cold front will begin to push across the Mid-South decreasing temperatures to more comfortable levels for July. As this front begins to dip down, the Storm Prediction Center has drawn a Marginal Risk for severe weather across portions of West Tennessee for mainly Tuesday evening into potentially overnight Wednesday. We're a little too far out to pinpoint storm mode, LREF joint probs are hinting at around a 45-60% chance for effective shear >25 kts and SBCAPE > 1200 J/kg in this area. For right now, there exists a conditional chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with primary concern of damaging winds. Moving into the latter half of the week, we're looking wet and unsettled as northwest flow aloft persists, though for right now, heat remains the primary concern.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Near-term focus is on TUP, where -TSRA is expected as a westward-moving outflow moves through. Included PROB30s for MKL and JBR to cover potential convective development as outflows shift southward. Winds will remain light and generally westerly through the period, with no significant fog signal at this time.

Strengthening upper level high pressure will result in isolated SHRA/TSRA activity on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>006-008-009-012>017-021>024.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020- 048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.