textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Today (Thursday) will again bring summer-like high temperatures to the Midsouth, but with lower humidity. Late Wednesday afternoon surface observations showed mid 40s dewpoints over much of central MS around Jackson, while lower to mid 70s dewpoints prevailed over most of the Midsouth. JAN upper sounding from 12Z Wednesday showed an average 925-850mb dewpoint near 0C. This layer won't be quite as dry over the Midsouth today, but we'll nonetheless see surface dewpoints about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday.

The main weather event remains a strong cold frontal passage Friday morning, aided by a deep northern branch longwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. 18Z GFS depicted stratospheric vorticity incorporated into this trough, with the dynamic tropospheric pressure level down to 600mb over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a dynamic system and a sign of the changing seasons.

As the upper trough lifts off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard Saturday, a progressive upper level ridge will build through the southern and central Great Plains, with weakening northwest flow over the Midsouth. This ridge will expand through much of the southeast US on Sunday, as it deamplifies. The net result for the Midsouth will be diminishing surface winds by Sunday morning, allowing the dry air to cool to the upper 30s and lower 40s toward sunrise.

The dry airmass will modify from Sunday onward, with highs reaching normal by Tuesday. Medium range global models depict the upper level ridge amplifying over the latter half of the week, downstream of a closed low moving onshore into southern California. There are some disparity between the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means with respect to timing of the upstream Pacific low. This timing may be sorted out in the subsequent runs, but for now the overall trend of warmer temps late next week appears to be a good bet.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the day with occasional gusts at MEM, MKL, and JBR. Overnight, a strong cold front will impact the airspace. This boundary should reach JBR by 09Z, bringing a sharp northerly wind shift and MVFR CIGs. These conditions will overspread the airspace by sunrise with winds gusting in excess of 20 kts.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Dry conditions will continue into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. . Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent today, mainly south of Interstate 40. Light winds will prevail areawide this afternoon.

A strong cold front will pass through the region Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. Despite much cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity will again drop below 40 percent Saturday afternoon. Winds will not be as quite strong as on Friday, but will gust in the morning and early afternoon.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>051.