textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect again on Sunday. Heat indices will peak between 105 and 109 F. Those without access to adequate cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable.

- The heat wave will continue into early next week with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s each day. Additional Heat advisories and potential Extreme Heat Warnings are highly likely.

- Relief arrives Wednesday as a weak front pushes through, dropping heat indices below 100F for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The Mid-South remains unseasonably warm tonight with 11 PM temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Radar shows isolated showers and storms in the Missouri Bootheel and NW Tennessee, supported by broad NW flow between a Great Basin ridge and an Ohio Valley trough. Weak shear and capping will keep any overnight convection sub-severe.

Sunday will be hot as the ridge persists. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM, with heat indices peaking between 105- 109F before hi-res guidance suggests increased afternoon storm coverage, particularly in NE Arkansas, W Tennessee, and NE Mississippi.

The heat wave continues through Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid-90s to near 100F. Heat indices will exceed 105F daily, with a growing potential for >109F on Monday and Tuesday. This prolonged heat event will peak Tuesday as cumulative effects mount. Additional heat advisories and warnings are highly likely on both Monday and Tuesday.

Relief arrives Wednesday as a weak front pushes through, dropping heat indices below 100F for the remainder of the week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all terminals through the forecast period under the influence of a building upper-level ridge. Diurnal heating will introduce a low to medium chance of scattered afternoon -TSRA, particularly impacting JBR, MKL, and TUP. Due to isolated coverage, PROB30 groups have been introduced to handle these convective windows. Confidence in direct convective impacts remains low at around 20% for MEM, where stronger capping is expected to suppress development. Surface winds will sustain a westerly flow between 5 and 8 kts during the afternoon before decoupling and becoming light and variable after sundown.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture remains over the Mid-South and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019- 020-048>051-088-089.