textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across the Mid-South, with Heat Advisories in effect for the region.

- A potential pattern change is on the horizon for Sunday offering the possibility of relief from the heat by early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A 595 dam ridge remains centered over the Ozarks with return flow advecting Gulf moisture into the Mid-South. Temperatures are running 1-5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as the ridge is expanding across the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Mid-South with heat index values up to 109 this afternoon. The hottest heat index values will be felt in the Delta Region.

A rather stagnant forecast period as the aforementioned ridge continues to influence the Mid-South. Another Heat Advisory is in effect tomorrow from 12 PM - 8 PM for eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of north Mississippi and West Tennessee. Expansion and additional advisories are likely for the rest of the week as the synoptic pattern is dominated by the ridge. A few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms could be embedded in any shortwaves propagating through the region, but confidence is low due to dry air aloft and a weak wind profile.

The first glimpse of a pattern change appears to be Sunday as weak troughing emerges off the coast of Maine. This trough may stretch a backdoor cold front and filter in drier air on Sunday into next week which would bring relief from dangerous heat. In the meantime, the hot and humid pattern is here to stay. Practice heat safety and check on sensitive groups.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals with light s/sw winds through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A persistent upper-level ridge will dominate the Mid-South over the next three days, bringing oppressive heat and prolonged dry conditions across the region. While overall fire weather threat levels remain low to slightly elevated due to light winds and minimum relative humidity (RH) values staying at or above 30%, the lack of rainfall will continue to dry out 10-hour and 100- hour surface fuels. Fog potential will be minimal across most of the region, restricted mainly to localized river valleys.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020- 048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019- 020-048>051-088-089.