textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 - Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the forecast period. The combination of cold air and gusty winds will bring wind chills into the teens and 20s.

- Chilly mornings will continue through the rest of the workweek,but afternoon temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s beyond mid-week.

- Shower chances increase by Friday morning, with only a 15 to 25 percent chance of a thunderstorm. Dry conditions should prevail by Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front near the Florida Panhandle. This cold front swept across the Mid-South with an Arctic air mass spreading over the area. The aforementioned cold front's parent low is over the Great Lakes. This trough was so strong the tight pressure gradient is still stretching back as far into central Arkansas. Still being affected by this gradient in the Mid-South, brisk northwest winds are bringing the effects of the arctic air mass to the forefront. As of 11 AM, wind chills across the region still reside in the 20s and low 30s.

Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the forecast period as air temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s. Skies will be clear overnight, but elevated winds may hinder perfect radiational cooling conditions. The coldest reasonable low temperatures (90th percentile) for Tuesday is only a degree or two lower, so the higher winds should keep us well mixed. The higher winds however will make it feel much colder for the morning commute with apparent temperatures in the lower teens and near 20 degrees. If winds over perform, a few areas across northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel have a 35% chance or less of experiencing single-digit apparent temperatures.

The arctic air mass will begin to weaken and shift east by Wednesday as zonal flow begins to take over. Slight warmup will occur daily in the afternoon hours, but mornings will remain cool. Diurnal heating and wind trends will be the drivers of a benign weather pattern through Thursday.

On Thursday, weak southwest winds will return and warmer, moister air will slowly move into the area. The arctic air mass significantly plummeted dew points and very dry air will prevail until then. Saturation will take a bit of time, which appears to be a leading factor in the model discrepancy for a systems approach on Friday. The outlier at this time appears to be the GFS as it wants to surge plentiful moisture into the MS Delta by Thursday night into Friday morning. The ECMWF and Canadian have modest moisture (dew points in the mid 50s) with mid 60s high temperatures. Despite the discrepancies, there is good agreement of a wet start to the weekend. LREF probabilities of severe weather ingredients remain out of the Memphis CWA and are low (less than 10%) as it gets close to the Mid-South in proximity. Nonetheless, prepare for showers to start the weekend with a chance (15-20%) of a thunderstorm on Friday into Saturday.

DNM

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR CIGs will prevail through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will begin to veer southwest Tuesday afternoon with minimal impacts.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Minimum RH values will be between 30 percent and 40 percent through at least Tuesday afternoon. Strong 20 ft winds in excess of 15 knots tonight will slowly weaken to around 5 knots by Tuesday morning. Wetting rain conditions were brought to the area last night which should hinder fire weather concerns until moisture is able to advect back into the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.