textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Dry conditions will continue through Friday with high temperatures spanning the mid 80s to low 90s.

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are expected to impact the Midsouth on Saturday. Primary impacts will include wind gusts to 35 mph and occasional heavy rainfall, Total rainfall is expected to range between 1 and 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches over northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River.

- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the Midsouth early Sunday. The weather pattern will turn dry and warm by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Isaias continued to intensify Wednesday evening. Per NHC, Isaias has just reached hurricane strength.

Overall, little has changed from the 4 pm / 21Z advisory regarding potential impacts for the Midsouth. These impacts will primarily occur between sunrise Saturday and midnight Saturday evening. The system will accelerate northward through the day Saturday, which will limit, but not preclude flooding concerns. At this time, 1-3 inches appears likely, with half or more of this rainfall occurring Saturday morning. With much of the Midsouth in D2 to D4 drought, but dry ground will not completely mitigate a flooding concern if rain rates are high. A Flood Watch is not planned for this forecast cycle but may be considered in future forecast cycles.

We are just outside the window for high res-CAM guidance, but deterministic runs of the GFS and the REFS ensemble mean indicate a potential for 35+ mph gusts over northeast MS and the TN River Saturday afternoon. Areas west of the MS River could see gusts in excess of 30 mph Saturday afternoon, given the relatively flat land surface. Although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the right/eastern semi-circle of Isaias' remnant low and associated tornado potential will likely remain east of the TN River.

Rain and wind from Isaias' remnant low will exit to the northeast Sunday morning. In its wake, an upstream ridge over TX and the western Gulf will amplify through the lower MS RIver valley through midweek. This ridge will likely reach 594dam at 500mb, centered along the central Gulf coast. Midweek NBM max temps appear too cool for this pattern, likely due to seasonal bias correction.

Although timing differences are evident in the 18Z global models, this ridge is expected to lift to the mid-Atlantic seatboard late next week, as a deep progressive longwave through lifts through the Great Plains and MS River Valley.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will result in light easterly winds and VFR skies across the Midsouth through the upcoming 24- 30 hour TAF cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Dry conditions will persist through Friday, with minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany gusty winds on Saturday, as the remnants of tropical system Isaias move through. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is generally expected, with greatest amounts over far northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee. Dry and warm conditions will return on Sunday afternoon and persist into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.