textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

GOES Water Vapor satellite indicates an upper-level low located over east Texas, with a plume of low level moisture advecting up from the Gulf into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. The latest surface analysis shows a weak quasi- stationary boundary located over portions of the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show scattered rain showers along and west of the Mississippi River, and numerous rain showers near the Tennessee River. Cloudy skies prevailed across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Ample low-level moisture is expected to lead to the redevelopment of low stratus across the area overnight. Patchy fog is possible east of the Mississippi River where temperatures are approaching saturation in some locations. Short-term model trends indicate the best coverage for rain showers overnight will be across areas mostly along and north of I-40. Overall, rainfall amounts are expected to remain light, generally 0.10 inch or less. Coverage will become more isolated to scattered by Wednesday with overall shear remaining very weak and a lack of synoptic systems over the area.

Long range model trends suggest an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the area late week into the start of next weekend as a strong northern stream shortwave trough pushes a cold front into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Confidence in the timing of drier air returning to the area remains low with the GFS being the outlier as Canadian and ECMWF solutions favor a slower and continued wet pattern across the Mid- South through next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Messy TAF set will remain this issuance as an upper low and surface front influence the weather over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Off and on -SHRA will continue impacting terminals over the next 24 hours or so. Fog is also expected overnight amidst narrow dewpoint depressions and saturated soils. IFR and pockets of LIFR conditions are also expected to continue filtering in across the airspace. Conditions look to slowly improve to MVFR shortly after sunrise and eventual VFR by the afternoon hours. Given the messy pattern we've been in, there is a chance that we don't lift to VFR conditions in the afternoon, however, confidence was not high enough in this evolution to prevail MVFR through the day. Light northeast winds will shift more southeast by the end of the TAF period. Fog and MVFR, potential IFR, ceilings are expected once again Wednesday morning.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.