textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through Friday. Heat indices may reach Heat Advisory criteria as early as Thursday for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The heat will continue into the weekend.

- A slow-moving upper level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage will become more isolated on Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A slow-moving upper level trough extended from central AR through the lower Mississippi River Valley at midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus mainly along and east to the trough axis through early evening, aided by deep layer shear up to 25KT and mixed layer CAPE to 1500J/kg. HRRR depicts DCAPE less than 700J/kg, suggesting limited microburst potential.

The upper level trough will weaken through Wednesday, and lift out Wednesday night, beginning a warmer and drier phase of the forecast. While an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out Thursday and Friday, the main storm track will extend from the northern Great Plains into the middle-Mississipp and Ohio River valleys. A series of shortwaves will pass through that region, dropping midlevel heights and reinforcing a stationary front across southern MO and Ohio River Valley. Midlevel heights will lower over the Midsouth by Sunday, as a northern branch trough settles in the Ozarks underneath an amplifying ridge over the northern Great Plains. Low convective inhibition, numerous surface boundaries and PWAT in excess of 2 inches suggest decent storm coverage on Sunday.

Early next week, east/northeast flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth, around the southern periphery of a 600dam 500mb height ridge centered over the central plains. GEFS and EPS mean PWAT values decrease to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, as subsidence settles in from the north. Depending on the position of the upper ridge axis, rain chances may be limited to isolated daytime thunderstorms south of I-40 by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A stalled frontal boundary and an upper-low will promote thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. Tempos have been drawn in across all terminals for -TSRA over the next several hours. As the sun sets, instability will begin to wane, hindering thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours. Winds will go light and variable overnight before picking up southwest at around 5-7 kts around 15Z. As winds go calm along saturated soils, a window will open for fog potential overnight at MKL, lifting by sunrise. With peak daytime heating, another round of pop-up thunderstorms are anticipated tomorrow afternoon warranting a PROB30 at MEM. Aside from thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily during peak heating.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.