textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A cold front will bring isolated showers and a low-end strong to severe storm threat south of I-40 this afternoon.

- Cooler and less humid air will filter into the region behind the front, bringing comfortable temperatures in the 80s through much of the work week.

- Minimal rain chances are expected for the remainder of the week with signals of a more significant cool-down late in the month.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is just east of the Memphis metro as of 10 AM. On the 'cool' side of the boundary, dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s with a few post frontal showers on going. The front is expected to continue its descent this afternoon over an airmass with upper 60s to low 70 dewpoints. Moisture and weak lift from the boundary is likely to initiate isolated coverage south of I-40 this afternoon. Diurnal heating will allow for very steep surface lapse rates and ~1500 DCAPE. This would warrant a damaging wind/downburst threat in the strongest storms, however, overall shear profiles are disorganized and effective shear is less than 20 kts. Confidence in severe storms this afternoon and evening is low, but a strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.

By tomorrow, the front should be well clear of the region and a few lingering residual showers should end by sunset. Northern portions of the region will feel slightly cooler Tuesday, but Wednesday will be a taste of cooler weather for everyone. Temperatures will generally be in the 80s through the rest of the workweek under northwest flow aloft. An upper level ridge will build in to our west on Friday afternoon sending 500 mb temps above the 90th percentile just west of the Mid-South. Temperatures closest to the ridge may briefly rise above 90 this weekend in our western zones, but humidity will be tolerable. As of now, minimal rain chances are expected within the northwest flow regime, but we will keep an eye on rain chances. In the long term, the LREF does hint at a cool down with 500 mb temperatures in the 25th or lower percentiles to round out September.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cold front will move through the region this afternoon into tonight. The best chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be at TUP later this afternoon until early evening. Thus, the PROB30 for convection will be maintained at TUP. Otherwise, the probability of activity remains too low to mention with the other TAF sites. MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings may develop overnight into Tuesday morning at all sites, with the highest probabilities occurring at JBR. Light north winds will increase to 6-9 kts towards the latter half of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A passing weak cold front will bring an end to the near-record heat, gradually recovering relative humidity levels. Due to mostly dry soils, fog potential remains minimal overall, restricted primarily to brief, localized morning fog along low- lying river valleys and anywhere that receives rainfall from the frontal passage.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.