textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Low-end chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms exist tonight and Saturday for the far southern and northwestern counties.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.

- Medium to high confidence remains in a dry, quiet, and slightly cooler than normal workweek following the Sunday frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The latest surface analysis places a stalled frontal boundary just along the coast of the Gulf and a slow moving cold front stretched into central Oklahoma. This gives two low end chances of rain on opposite sides of the CWA as moisture pulls near each boundary. There is a 10-15% PoP for our southern tier of counties and our northwestern most counties tonight into tomorrow morning. Temperatures will cool down, shrinking dew point depressions, but ACAR and HRRR soundings depict dry air from the surface to about 700mb. Not expecting much development or accumulation of any showers throughout the night.

Saturday will feature warm and slightly humid conditions, as WAA pulls ahead of an approaching cold front. The southerly flow profile is weak overall, so confidence is low in any showers developing within this regime. Sunday, however, is a different story as the aforementioned cold front will be nearing northeast Arkansas by sunrise. From the LREF, Sunday afternoon does warrant the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather chances with joint probabilities of muCAPE >500 J/kg and >30 kts of bulk shear between 40-60%. With this being pre-frontal convection, you would expect a linear storm mode, but height falls and shear profiles remain un-impressive. A messy mode of clusters will begin to impact the region Sunday afternoon and the region should return to drier and cooler conditions by Monday afternoon.

Surface high pressure with northwest flow aloft will reign post frontal resulting in slightly cooler than normal conditions. A secondary frontal boundary looks to sink south on Wednesday, but given projected dewpoints in the 30s and 40s for days prior, any precipitation will struggle to form or reach the surface ahead of this frontal boundary. The airmass behind this front is not polar by any means, so little change will be felt. This pattern provides medium to high confidence in a dry, benign forecast for the workweek.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs are currently crawling northward across northern MS, dropping TUP to BKN010 with the potential for a further drop into IFR. Past forecasts depicted these CIGs making it as far north as MEM/MKL, but current trends indicate this is now unlikely. Therefore, VFR is expected at MEM/MKL/TUP through the period. Winds will be light and out of the southwest, dropping to VRB or calm after 00z Sunday through the end of the period. A few showers will try to make their way into the region during the end of the MEM TAF period, but confidence in coverage is too low to mention in this TAF issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent on Monday and Tuesday, following wetting rainfall over parts of the Mid- South on Sunday. Warm and predominately dry conditions will prevail next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.