textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Temperatures will be well below normal on Sunday with gusty northwest winds.

- Very cold temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings, with a warmup starting midweek.

- Rain chances (60% or more) will return Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A 1050 mb arctic high over central Canada will gradually slide south over the next couple of days. There is high confidence for well below normal temperatures and gusty winds in the short term. Lows will drop below freezing across most of the Mid-South overnight. Arctic air will continue to blast into the region on gusty northwest winds on Sunday. Highs will only be in the 40s, but northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph will make it feel more like the 20s and 30s. Sunday night into Monday morning will feel very cold as brisk northwest winds continue. Monday morning wind chills will drop to between 5 to 15 degrees. By Monday afternoon, a piece of this arctic high will be centered over the Mid-South, allowing for one more very cold night with lows in the upper teens and 20s by Tuesday morning.

Southerly flow will return by Tuesday afternoon with gusty southwest winds, especially over the Delta. Temperatures will start to climb, with highs approaching normal levels this time of year. The warming trend will continue through mid-week with highs in the 60s on Wednesday. A fast-moving mid-level shortwave will aid in the development of the surface low over the Plains that will track into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday night and the Ohio Valley by Thursday. The associated cold front will push through the Mid-South on Thursday with a medium to high chance of a wetting rain (50-70%). Severe chances are minimal (<5%) due to a lack of instability.

Pacific high pressure in the wake of Thursday's system will result in highs in the 60s on Friday and 60s and 70s on Saturday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty by Sunday, though models are indicating the chance of another strong cold front moving through with increasing rain chances and colder temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail under Arctic high pressure for at least the next 30 hours. The main impact for this period will be gusty northwest winds behind a reinforcing cold front. Expect winds to start increasing in speed shortly after midnight tonight. By mid morning Sunday, there is high confidence in NW wind gusts 25-30 MPH for all sites that will most likely last through 00Z Monday. Elevated winds 10 kts or higher are expected to last through the following overnight period into Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. Humidity and temperatures increase by the middle of next week with rain chances returning late next week with a cold front.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.