textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A notable pattern shift takes place tomorrow with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Mostly dry and cooler, seasonal weather is forecast by next Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will result in up to 1.5 inches of rainfall across the Mid-South through the weekend.

- The coolest temperatures since around the middle of May will arrive in the Mid-South by Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

At midday today, a cutoff low was evident on satellite imagery over the Oklahoma Panhandle. This feature will weaken over the next 24 hours as it tracks east-northeast across Kansas and northern Missouri. Mid-to upper-level flow across the CONUS will become much less amplified tomorrow, transitioning to weak west- to-northwest flow across the Mississippi River valley. A cold front will move across the Mid-South during the day Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight in a WAA regime ahead of the front, increasing in coverage and spreading east through the night and Friday. Expect our first widespread and long-duration rainfall event in quite a while Friday, with at least a few showers lingering through the weekend. NBM probability of 2 inches of rainfall or more tonight through Sunday morning is between 10 and 35%, highest in northeast Arkansas. For the event duration, the highest total rainfall accumulations, through early Monday, are expected in northeast Mississippi. Over 1.5 inches of rain is possible near the Alabama state line east of Tupelo, but the overall focus for the heaviest rainfall has shifted quite a bit farther south over the last 24 hours. Areas along the central Gulf Coast could see over 5 inches of rain. Thunderstorms are expected, but the threat of any severe storms looks minimal. Both dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are marginal at best, shear profiles are weak (<25 kts) and unidirectional, and extensive cloud cover will limit any surface-based instability. CAPE values are maximized over west Tennessee and north Mississippi tomorrow afternoon, but are below 350 J/kg. Precipitable water values will climb to between 1.8 and 2.2 inches across the Mid-South tomorrow. As a result, locally heavy rain is possible and could result in localized flooding, but antecedent conditions will help limit the flooding threat. Rainfall is not expected to alleviate the substantial rainfall deficits that are already occurring across the area.

Weak northwest flow will remain in place through the weekend and well into the upcoming work week. A 1026 mb surface high will build over the Northern Plains and shift over the Great Lakes Monday and over New Jersey by midweek. The Mid-South will remain on the southern periphery of the surface high, keeping us dry. The coolest temperatures since around the middle of May will arrive in the Mid-South by Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s. High temperatures early next week will be in the middle 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. South/southwest winds will remain gusty, up to 20 kts, through about 00Z. A cold front will bring scattered showers and potential thunderstorms across terminals beginning tomorrow morning. Given uncertainty with overall coverage and intensity, PROB30s for showers remain across terminals. As showers and storms move in, brief drops to MVFR are expected.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Moisture will continue to increase across the region. Dry conditions will come to an end tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms continuing through the weekend. Min RH's will be in the 40s tomorrow, and trend higher through the weekend. There is a high confidence of wetting rain area wide with totals expected between two-thirds and 1.5 inches tomorrow through the weekend. Cooler and drier air will follow for early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.