textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Satellite observations currently reveal a weak upper low centered over northern Arkansas moving north. Scattered showers reside in and around the low and are expected to continue through the day, but weak mid-level lapse rates and poor insolation should keep an increase in coverage at a minimum through this evening. Regardless, temperatures will remain somewhat cooler, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon.

The upper pattern across the CONUS will continue to consist of a closed low over the Rockies and Pacific coast with a ridge over the Southeast through the end of the work week. Multiple weak upper shortwaves are expected to emanate from the western troughing, traveling across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected in this regime with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds within stronger thunderstorms. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s through at least Friday.

Confidence continues to rise that the pattern will begin to shift by Friday. The upper ridge will amplify to the northwest across the northern Plains, further amplifying into the weekend over south-central Canada and creating an omega-blocking pattern. As is typical of this type of pattern, an eastern upper low will develop that will be thrown south into the Northeast through the weekend. The system will push its way south towards the region, but models struggle to bring a meaningful cooldown as the front enters the area Saturday and into Sunday. Models do not have the deep moisture being advected out until early next week, supporting daily shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend through at least Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Moist tropical air will remain over the Midsouth airspace through the next 30 hours. Scattered SHRA will be most common north of a DRP-MEM-MKL line this afternoon, in the vicinity of a weak low level pressure trough. South of this line, coverage and organizational potential of SHRA will be more limited.

Midlevel drying and weak ridging aloft will limit SHRA coverage early in the day Wednesday. Moisture and IFR potential will increase late Wednesday night, beyond the current valid TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.