textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Bouts of isolated showers will continue through early Saturday morning as a couple of cold fronts move through the region.

- Below freezing temperatures will return Sunday and Monday, with a warmup towards midweek.

- Rain chances will return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The latest surface analysis places a 994mb low on the MO/IL border and stretching a cold front nearly parallel to the Mississippi River. The lift from this boundary has a narrow line of convection developing, apparent on KNQA. This convection is expected to remain tamed with gusty winds as the primary concern. Rain rates are pretty high, but with a quick moving LLJ these storms aren't in one place for too long.

This front will continue to sweep through the area and be free of the region by sunrise. Much drier air is behind the front, where dewpoints have already dropped into the 30s 40s across east central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. This same boundary will attempt to retreat north tomorrow as a warm front, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances across north Mississippi. Given how dry the air is that is filtering in, showers and storms will likely struggle to develop, resulting in very low QPF amounts. Less than a quarter of an inch is expected with the activity Friday into Saturday. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, due to the lift from the warm front, but thunderstorm ingredients are lacking overall.

Rain chances will begin to taper off Saturday afternoon, and the entire Mid-South should be rainfree by Saturday evening. A strong area of high pressure will begin sinking from Canada and impede on the Mid-South. Temperatures will retreat to slightly below normal for Sunday highs before plummeting sub-freezing by Monday morning. Probabilities of temperatures less than 32F Sunday morning is 60% or greater areawide, with high confidence for northern portions of the Mid-South. Temperatures will not warm much on Monday due to elevated northwest flow continuing to filter in cold air. Tuesday morning will be even colder as the surface high centers over us, lightening winds and clearing skies for a great radiational cooling setup. Probabilities of a hard freeze (<28F) for Tuesday morning are also around 60% area wide, with highest confidence for northern portions of the region and areas east of the Mississippi River.

Thankfully, return flow will settle in shortly after sunrise Tuesday and temperatures should rise to near normal by Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances begin to increase once more Wednesday as a surface low developing over the OK panhandle spews a shortwave across the southeast. This surface low will quickly be overtaken by yet another strong cold front taking aim late next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

It is mainly a wind forecast tonight and tomorrow as a deepening surface low moves away from the Midsouth. Winds will veer through the TAF cycle, from the west tonight, becoming north-northeast tomorrow. Sustained speeds tonight will be 10-15 kts and weaken 5- 10 kts tomorrow, and less than 5kts tomorrow night. Showers return to the airspace tomorrow night coverage will be limited (around 30%).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1031 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A couple of cold fronts will move through the region through Saturday. However, there is high confidence that wetting rain chances will remain largely isolated to scattered for the majority of the Mid-South. Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.