textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- A low to medium chance for rain showers is expected Friday into Friday night south of I-40.

- Cooler and drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- A warm and wet pattern will return early next week with temperatures warming into the 80s and increasing rain chances by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A few stray showers and thunderstorms are moving west to east across the region, embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft. Mid level water vapor satellite imagery shows this influx of moisture slowly retrograding south as high pressure sinks over the central CONUS. This area of high pressure will slowly stretch easterly during the overnight period bringing the isolated to scattered coverage of showers to an end. Thursday will be pleasantly warm with highs between 65 and 75 degrees and dry conditions to accompany.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will return on Friday ahead of a southern stream shortwave. The axis of moisture will struggle to climb north, confining rain chances generally south of the I-40 corridor. The aforementioned area of high pressure will have a decent impression on the state of the atmosphere, keeping QPF values and severe weather threat low. Rain chances will be highest in the overnight period Friday night into Saturday morning with medium chances (40-70%) of 0.10" or more of precipitation falling. Hi-res CAMs are just now getting into the forecast period, but the 00z CAMs continue to push back the onset of showers, which is indicative of a stout dry air column that will take time to saturate.

A weak cold front will slowly track southeast as the main shortwave moves away from the region kicking off a dry and cool weekend. Cooler mornings are expected each day with temperatures in the 40s and 50s and pleasant afternoons with readings in the 60s and 70s as we roll into May. A deep, upper-level trough will continue to rotate across Canada and steer the upper level pattern into early next week. On Monday, we reside on the back side of the trough and return flow ramps up. This will warm temperatures back up into the upper 70s and 80s. An emerging upper level low from the Plains will stretch a cold front across our region, increasing rain chances by Tuesday. There is disagreement amongst models regarding shower arrival, intensity and coverage once the system develops. The LREF is pinging low (<30%) joint probabilities of 500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear due to warming temperatures and lift from a cold front. These probabilities hang around daily until the front clears the area, which is still uncertain at this time. The LREF suggests the frontal passage is favoring next Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, but that is a week away and could change. Nonetheless, enjoy a dry and cool weekend before another warm and wet pattern unfolds next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period across the airspace, with some additional cloudiness through the morning and again this evening. Winds will generally remain northeasterly, up to around 10 kts through the daytime before subsiding back below 7 kts in the evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period due to recent wetting rains. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 35 to 40 percent Thursday with 20ft winds remaining light. Saturday presents the next opportunity for widespread RH values to drop near 35%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.