textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A cold front will approach the region early this morning, bringing a low-end severe thunderstorm threat to Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and extreme Northwest Tennessee prior to daybreak.

- An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, though severe weather probabilities remain low.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs in the low 80s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

930 PM surface observations depict a frontal boundary stretching from the Texas Panhandle northeast into the Great Lakes. This boundary will continue on a southeast trajectory overnight, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the Mid-South by 5AM. Given lack luster bulk shear, the potential for this activity to become severe is low (around 10 percent). However, residual SBCAPE and lapse rates around 6.5 C/km may encourage a few strong storms in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Should this occur, gusty winds will be the primary concern. Rain chances will persist through Friday as the aforementioned front stalls over central Mississippi. Additional precipitation chances will manifest on Saturday as this boundary returns north as a warm front. The 00Z CAMs suite depicts the majority of the Mid-South staying dry as this occurs, but ensemble members remain consistent in at least isolated shower and thunderstorm coverage through the evening hours.

Broad upper level troughing will begin to develop over CONUS on Sunday, allowing another cold front to eject towards the Mid- South. The LREF places a 10 to 15 percent chance of overlapping severe weather ingredients Sunday afternoon as this boundary pushes across the area. This setup will feature bulk shear around 40 kts and SBCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. This environment will support better storm organization along the front, though poor lapse rates should limit storms to mainly a damaging wind threat. The bigger story will be unseasonably cool air that lasts into the middle of next week. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday, which is around 10 degrees below normal.

Long range guidance places additional rain chances for the end of next week as an upper level low develops over TX. However, run to run inconsistencies remain so expect a potential wet end to the work week with temperatures increasing to near normal.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A broken line of SHRA and embedded TSRA remain on track to drop into the Midsouth from southern MO and northern AR prior to sunrise. The last few runs to the HRRR remain consistent on timing of this convection, but depict less organizational potential and coverage. Related to this, the latest guidance consensus suggests the outflow boundary will not make it as far south as earlier expected, leading to a possible reinvigoration of TSRA near MEM during the afternoon. Any such convection should dissipate prior to Friday evening inbound push.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.