textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Cooler and less humid air will begin to filter into the region on Tuesday, bringing comfortable temperatures in the 80s through the rest of the week.

- Outside of some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A couple of isolated thunderstorms remain in the northwest and southeast corners of the Mid-South, otherwise much of the area has dried out with a stalled frontal boundary. Lingering storms appear to be riding residual surface boundaries from storms earlier in the day, with activity expected to decrease over the next few hours. Overnight into the hours near sunrise, some patchy fog will remain possible for areas that saw rainfall on Monday. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly mix out following sunrise. As the day progresses on Tuesday, the aforementioned boundary will continue its trek to the south. There will be enough moisture present for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to linger through the day, but the entire area will dry out by Tuesday evening. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s across our north behind the frontal boundary, with highs in the low to mid 90s across our southern tier of counties that will not see relief until later in the day. If the forecast for Tuesday pans out, this will put Memphis with fifty consecutive days of at least 90 degrees or higher. This is the second longest consecutive day streak, with a 54 day streak in 1980 taking first place.

Luckily, 1980 will likely be keeping that record as we will finally break out of the 90s on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. With the frontal boundary clearing the area, northwesterly flow aloft will aid in bringing a more seasonable and dry weather pattern to the region. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s across the region, with a few locations still approaching 90 degrees across our southern tier of counties. While these values are still a bit above normal for the end of September, they are certainly welcome compared to the 10 to 15 degree above normal weather we have been experiencing over the past month and a half.

Guidance suggests that the upper-level ridge to our west will finally begin to break down heading into the upcoming weekend and early next week, likely signifying a pattern shift. Taking a look at ensemble guidance through this period, guidance does begin to become a bit more spread. ENS guidance tends to favor seasonable temperatures persisting, while GEFS guidance brings a slight warm up back to the region. Even if the GEFS solution plays out, we would not be getting close to any records again, just remaining slightly above seasonable normals. Unfortunately, one thing guidance does tend to agree on is a dry pattern persisting for the foreseeable future. This will not help already worsening drought conditions, that will likely continue to worsen as we move through our dry season.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Outside of an isolated thunderstorm across northeast AR currently, dry conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight hours. Areas that saw thunderstorms on Monday could see some patchy fog overnight, so included mention at MKL and TUP where conditions are more favorable. Otherwise, some additional cloudiness will move in overnight with a low chance of some MVFR cigs near sunrise. Some additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through the day on Tuesday as the frontal boundary exits the region, however, there is not enough confidence to include any mention at TAF sites. Winds will remain northerly through the period, picking up to around 10 kts through the daytime with occasional gusts upwards of 18 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Outside of some isolated showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday, no measurable precipitation is anticipated for the foreseeable future. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% through Friday, with dry soils continuing amongst the ongoing drought. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Tuesday morning, mainly across areas that received rainfall Monday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.