textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South through late week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM. Hot and humid conditions will likely require additional heat headlines through at least Thursday.

- Relief is expected by Friday into the weekend as increased shower and thunderstorm activity develops.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Latest hi-res models keep most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to the north and east of the region today. As a result, we have decided to cancel the flood watch early. A few storms may sneak into the northern parts of the Mid-South this afternoon and this evening, but they will be progressive, and excessive heavy rainfall is unlikely. A few of these storms could be strong with gusty winds, and there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) along the KY/TN border this afternoon into this evening, though confidence is low.

The bigger story is the heat. Upper ridging will build across the region over the next few days with mostly rain-free weather. Hot and humid conditions will prevail with dewpoints well into the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 pm today, and additional heat headlines will likely be necessary through at least Thursday. Early season heat waves are especially dangerous since we are not used to the Mid- South summer heat yet. Take precautions that include staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, and staying in areas with AC if possible.

An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes on Friday will transition the flow aloft to a more zonal pattern while pushing a cold front toward the Mid-South. This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms by Friday with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend as the front stalls over the area. Another front will push south into the region early next week with additional chances for showers and storms. These fronts will bring some relief from the high heat as clouds and rain knock temps down into the 80s by early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR and breezy southerly flow continues. SHRA and TSRA are likely to remain north of the terminals for the remainder of the day. Winds will remain elevated overnight, with the exception of TUP where light winds will prevail. Clearing skies may allow for a reduction of visibility due to radiational fog. Guidance has not pinged this yet, but will be something to monitor if conditions become favorable. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, with gusty winds again at JBR.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area through Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-010-011.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>003-019-020- 048>052-088-089.