textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon mainly near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi.

- Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s through this weekend. Highs will increase slightly next week, up to the mid 80s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Yet another dreary overnight period is progressing across the Mid- South as the stationary boundary to our south finally begins to lift northward over the next few hours. This boundary will allow additional showers and widely isolated thunderstorms to push northward into Friday morning, becoming more widespread through the daytime. As the warm front lifts through the region, a weak surface low will move into the Ohio River Valley. With the Mid- South being firmly in the warm sector by that point, this could introduce a very low threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. CAM guidance remains largely spread on this outcome, with instability and lapse rates being a potential limiting factor. If more favorable conditions develop, which HREF guidance has around a 30% chance of this with CAPE / shear, then a low-end severe weather threat will exist mainly across northeast MS into the TN River Valley. With the presence of the surface low enhancing our low-level winds, there will be just enough shear present for a very low tornado threat to exist. This is a very, very conditional threat and will be dependent on if our atmosphere is able to destabilize behind the warm front, which will likely be difficult with the projected cloud cover. Nevertheless, it is worth the mention and will be something to watch into Friday afternoon. With the persistent cloud coverage expected, high temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday, with highs near the mid 70s to the north and near 80 degrees south.

By Saturday into the Memorial Day Weekend, little respite is expected from our ongoing wet weather pattern. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft with a building ridge to the east will allow moisture to continue to move into the area, keeping daily shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. Highest PoPs through the period will generally be driven by multiple weak shortwaves passing through. There may be a small period of lower PoPs Saturday morning behind Friday's frontal passage, but PoPs will rise again Saturday night into Sunday. PWAT values will remain above the 90th percentile, at times as high as the 97th percentile, through this period. In addition, most skew-ts through the period have generally skinny CAPE profiles, which does heighten the potential for some localized flooding in heavy downpours given the PWAT values. In essence, if we are able to get some thunderstorm development, expect for them to produce some very heavy downpours quickly. The flood threat will be heightened if storms become stationary or train over a particular area. Through Monday, total rainfall amounts will likely be between 2 to 3 inches, with the highest amounts generally across north MS. High temperatures through the holiday weekend are expected to remain in the low to mid 80s.

Late Monday into the remainder of the forecast period, our ongoing wet weather pattern appears to persist. While an upper- level low will move out of the southern plains, which typically will bring a clearing frontal passage, this low does appear to stall just to our west and get re-enveloped back into the deepening trough axis further to the west. This will keep those daily shower and thunderstorm chances going, with no organized severe weather expected. Given the already saturated soils by this point, localized flooding concerns will exist during heavier downpours. For those waiting for a break out of this pattern, CPC 6 to 10 day guidance keeps the Mid-South in the near to above normal temperature and above normal precipitation favored category through next week. So, it still does not look like a break is in sight. The bright side of this persistent wet pattern is that it should help out our ongoing drought issues, especially over West TN and north MS where rainfall totals will likely be highest.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A stationary boundary draped across the region will begin to move north through the night, bringing impacts from SHRA and MVFR/IFR CIGs. Showers will be present at TUP initially, spreading north throughout the night with a quick descent into MVFR and IFR at all terminals. These conditions will prevail until 15z - 18z Friday as diurnal heating lifts cloud bases back to MVFR. Convective coverage will increase through the night, but thunder is not expected until late Friday morning or early afternoon. Thunder potential decreases towards the end of the TAF period with a trend towards VFR CIGs in the last few hours of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast over the next seven days as a wet and unsettled pattern persists.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.