textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s. Some locations may approach the low 100s by this weekend into early next week.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Wednesday through Friday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Another calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently spanning the upper 70s to low 80s. There is some ongoing convection over Middle TN along a lingering boundary, however, this activity is expected to stay to the east of the Mid-South. Otherwise, a rinse and repeat forecast is on tap for Wednesday with temperatures returning to the mid to upper 90s across the area. With the well above-normal temperatures and dew points lingering in the mid 70s, heat index values will likely approach to exceed 105 across much of the area. For this reason, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for Wednesday and continue through at least Thursday and Friday. Outside of the ongoing, extreme heat, there will be a series of weak shortwaves that swing through the Ohio River Valley Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Some of the 00Z guidance wants to have some diurnally-driven, afternoon thunderstorms across north Mississippi Wednesday afternoon, but given that this is a relatively new trend, opted against any meaningful mention in our PoPs. In addition, one of the more potent shortwaves could bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to our north and east, but the vast majority of guidance keeps any activity associated with this well to our east. The forecast will carry some small PoPs (< 20%) mainly along the TN River Wednesday evening into the overnight hours for this reason, but again think the better chances remain outside of the Mid-South.

By Friday, an upper-level ridge will continue to build over the region with little to no relief expected until at least next week. Latest NBM guidance has most of the Mid-South reaching the upper 90s by Friday, with temperatures increasing further by Saturday through Monday with highs peaking in the low 100s for many. Latest LREF guidance through this same time period has generally a 40% to 60% chance of exceeding 100 degrees along and west of the MS River on Friday, with these probabilities increasing to the 60% to 80% range by Saturday. Guidance does begin to become more spread by next Tuesday onward as the ridge begins to break down. Despite the spread, conditions still look very warm with unseasonably warm temperatures. As such, additional heat headlines will likely be needed into the upcoming weekend and early next week. For those looking for temporary relief, you may need to look somewhere else outside of the Mid- South for the next seven days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Additional cloudiness will begin to move in tomorrow, with low confidence of some SHRA/TSRA mainly in the afternoon. Given the uncertainty, this was not mentioned for any TAF sites but will be something to monitor for future issuances. Otherwise, winds will become W/WSW through the daytime and pick up to around 10 kts. Wind speeds will fall back to around 7 kts or below and go southerly after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A typical, summer-time pattern will continue for the foreseeable future with no major fire danger concerns. While conditions will remain dry with little to no meaningful precipitation chances, minimum relative humidity leaves be above 40% with 20ft winds at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.