textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact much of the Mid-South on Saturday with primary impacts including wind gusts up to 45 mph and periods of heavy rainfall.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for most areas east of the Mississippi River and an areawide Wind Advisory has been issued for Saturday. A few counties in northeast Mississippi are under a Tropical Storm Warning.

- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the area by early Sunday. The weather pattern will turn dry and warm by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Another warm and dry day is on display with current temperatures spanning the 80s as a 586 dam ridge remains over the middle Mississippi Valley. Late tonight into early tomorrow, eyes turn to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. After making forecast landfall along Alabama and Florida Coast as a Category 3 hurricane, Isaias is forecast to begin making a northeastern trek inland.

The primary impacts with Isaias' remnants here in the Mid-South will be gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall. The latest forecast from the NHC does have Isaias impacting portions of the Mid-South at Tropical Storm strength. Though there still exists uncertainty with the overall impacts, storm track, and intensity this far inland, four of our counties (Lee, Itawamba, Chickasaw, and Monroe) are now in a Tropical Storm Warning through tomorrow afternoon with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph in these areas. The rest of the Mid-South is now under a Wind Advisory through tomorrow for sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. The strongest winds are anticipated in areas east of the Mississippi River, though, areas west will still be fairly gusty.

Current upper-level flow and a few shortwaves could steer this system further east or further west. Pending its track will impact the amount of rain we receive as its parent low begins to occlude along the eastern periphery of the Mid-South. Latest WPC guidance has backed off with rainfall amounts east of the Mississippi River with these areas struggling to reach an inch of total precipitation. Whereas areas east of the Mississippi River are forecast to see up to 2.5" of rainfall with locally higher amounts, greatest over northeast Mississippi and along the Tennessee River. The latest NBM guidance does have a 60-90% of >2" and a 40-60% chance of amounts >3". A Flood Watch will go into effect early tomorrow morning and remain through sunset for many areas east of the Mississippi River as forecast PWATs begin to surge near the 90th percentile in these areas. One thing to note, this tropical (stratiform) rain will be efficient despite the quick movement of Isaias.

By mid-morning Sunday, Isaias' remnants will have exited our area leaving a pleasant day across the Mid-South with highs in the 70s and 80s. Behind Isaias, a warm and dry pattern will begin as upper-level northwest flow begins to quickly build across the Mississippi Valley. We begin a warming trend as an upper-level ridge starts to broaden over the Lower Mississippi Valley from the western Gulf. Towards the end of the workweek, our next system looks to arrive potentially cooling us bringing our next shot at precipitation.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

High confidence remains that the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact eastern terminals (TUP/MKL/MEM) late tonight into Saturday morning, bringing strong surface winds and low-level wind shear (LLWS). NE 2000 ft winds of 45-55 kts will pivot over TUP/MKL around daybreak Saturday. At the surface, NE winds of 15- 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts are expected at TUP and MKL, with slightly lower gusts at MEM peaking from late morning through mid- afternoon. Multiple rain bands traversing the region Saturday will bring variable CIGs and VSBYs to MEM, MKL, and TUP. Maintained PROB30 groups to account for timing uncertainty regarding shower onset. Winds and precipitation will taper off Saturday night as the system moves northeastward, though low to medium probabilities persist for MVFR CIGs lingering at MKL and TUP.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Very warm and dry conditions will continue into this afternoon, with stronger easterly winds than what we've seen over the past several days. Minimum relative humidity will range from 20 to 25 percent will prevail north of I-40, with 25 to 35 percent forecast to the south. Widespread wetting rainfall and gusty winds up to 45 mph will spread through the Midsouth on Saturday, as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift through the region. Warm and dry conditions will return across the Mid-South next workweek.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>015- 020>022.

Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ016-017-023-024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.

Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for TNZ019>022-048>055-088>092.