textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Mostly sunny skies will lead to highs in the mid 70s on Friday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms may enter far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and far northwest Tennessee Friday night. A few showers and thunderstorms may also spread into north Mississippi early Saturday morning.

- Warmer air will spread into the Midsouth Saturday and Sunday, in advance of a cold frontal passage Sunday night. Sunday afternoon and evening will bring the greatest chances of rainfall over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

High pressure will remain over the region tonight with light winds and a dry airmass that will radiate nicely, though high clouds streaming into the region from TX may keep temps from dropping too deeply into the 40s across north MS. High pressure will shift east to the Carolinas on Friday with southerly winds developing. Highs will warm a few degrees higher, into the mid 70s.

A weak shortwave moving through the Mid-MS Valley will bring a small chance of showers (15-25 percent) to areas along the KY/MO borders Friday evening. Meanwhile, an upper low tracking across south Texas will advect some moisture northward through the Lower MS Valley late Friday night into Saturday. This feature is tracking further south on the latest models and precip chances have been diminishing across north MS each successive forecast cycle.

A slightly more significant shortwave will push through the region with an associated cold front on Sunday. A little deeper moisture combined with better lift will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better combination of instability and shear will develop across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi Sunday afternoon. 12z LREF joint probabilities of 750 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of shear are forecast to range between 25 and 35 percent Sunday afternoon. Severe weather chances are low (less than 15 percent) but will be monitored. Rainfall amounts will average less than one quarter inch with Sunday's front.

Cool high pressure will build in for Monday with gusty NNE winds and highs in lower to mid 70s. Tuesday morning will see lows in the 40s once again across eastern sections of the Mid-South. A moisture starved cold front will push through the Mid-South Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with little rainfall. A warming trend will continue into the end of the week as upper level ridging builds in from the west.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions expected at all four terminals through the majority of the TAF period. Southerly winds will prevail today, peaking between 5 - 10 knots at MEM/MKL/TUP with JBR gusting between 15 - 20 knots. Winds will weaken after 00z Saturday, dropping to VRB or calm through the night. Short-term models develop storms across the Plains this evening that will begin to approach the region overnight, but fail to sustain them long enough to warrant any concerns in the TAFs. However, guidance is growing more confident in expansive MVFR CIGs across MS that is expected to impact TUP through the last few hours of the period and potentially reach MEM. CIGs could drop into IFR, but confidence in this scenario is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next several days. Minimum relative humidity will drop below 40 percent on Monday and Tuesday, following wetting rainfall over parts of the Mid- South on Sunday. Warm and predominately dry conditions will prevail next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.