textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 731 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast late Saturday. Rain chances will increase area wide on Sunday, then gradually taper off through the middle of next week. The chances for severe thunderstorms over the next seven days remains low.

- Temperatures will prevail in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend. Mid-summer-like heat will arrive by the middle of next week, with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The 589dm 500mb ridge that was over the Southeast and Lower MS River Valley on Thursday will deamplify on Friday, allowing a plume of subtropical moisture and stronger midlevel flow to edge slowly east toward the Midsouth on Friday. Despite slight increases in deep layer moistures and shear, Friday's rain chances remain slim. By Saturday, dewpoints will return to more seasonal values in the lower 70s along and west of the MS River, supporting slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Low to mid 70s dewpoints will spread through all of the Midsouth on Sunday, accompanied by a midlevel subtropical moisture plume and height falls ahead of an upper level trough over the southern plains. By Sunday afternoon, PWAT values over the Midsouth will reach 2.25 inches (99th percentile), with negligible CINH and MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg during the heat of the afternoon. Deep layer shear will remain below 20kt, yielding slow-moving relatively unorganized storm clusters capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.

The upper trough will lift to the upper Midwest on Monday, leaving weak southwesterly flow aloft across the Midsouth. The upper trough will be out of the picture by Tuesday, with ridging in its wake over the southern plains and lower MS River Valley. Sufficient lower atmospheric moisture will remain over the Midsouth to support isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper level ridge will predominate by Thursday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and continued high humidity. Isolated afternoon storms will be possible late next week. Better rain chances are expected along the Gulf coast, associated with a slow-moving coastal low. For the Midsouth, the main story for the mid to late part next week will be July-like heat and humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure dominates the airspace. South/southwest winds are expected to remain largely sub 10 kts across all terminals.

The JBR TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to an ongoing ASOS communications outage. Return to service time is unknown.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns are anticipated for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain around or above 40% through Friday afternoon, accompanied by light southeasterly winds. Higher humidity will return over the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to northwest Mississippi and eastern Arkansas Saturday afternoon and across the Mid-South on Sunday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.