textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Record-setting heat is anticipated through midweek with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated Friday as a cold front traverses the Mid-South.

- Seasonable temperatures return this weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record-setting heat will continue to impact the Mid-South through midweek underneath a strong subtropical ridge. Conditions over the next several days will mirror early summer as increased moisture produces heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is potential for showers and few rumbles of thunder on Wednesday as a cold front stalls northwest of the forecast area. Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have the greatest potential for rainfall at this time, but amounts will generally be less than half an inch.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. Guidance continues to show a shortwave trough developing over southern Manitoba on Thursday, trekking southeast towards the Great Lakes Region. This system will eject a strong cold front into the Mid-South on Friday. Elevated fire weather concerns will manifest at this time as 20ft winds approach 20 mph in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This, combined with dry fuels and decreasing dewpoints, may necessitate the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement on Friday. A Red Flag Warning is not anticipated at this time due to forecast relative humidity remaining above 25 percent.

The upcoming weekend features fall-like conditions with highs in the 60s and 70s. Long range guidance is starting to hint at a shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies late Sunday into Monday. This may increase our rain chances early next week, but given the dry air in place ahead of this system we are not anticipating a widespread rainfall event.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

A ridge aloft will keep conditions VFR across the Mid-South today, but gradually lose its grip on the region overnight into Wednesday. Expect an increase in mid and high level cu, late in the TAF cycle especially at MEM and JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns return on Friday as a cold front produces 20-ft winds near 20 mph in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Forecast Energy Release Component and Spread Component values are nearing the 90th percentile on Friday, likely due to a combination of the aforementioned winds, dry fuels, and decreasing dew points. For now, a Red Flag Warning is not anticipated as relative humidity remains above 25 percent. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be the more appropriate fire weather product for Friday. Important note: the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid-South in a 40-69% outlook for overlapping fire weather conditions on Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.