textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Cooler and calmer across the Midsouth today, with isolated to scattered storms near the Tennessee River and a low risk for severe weather.

- The unsettled pattern continues through midweek, maintaining a localized threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- Temperatures will trend warmer by late week as precipitation chances decrease and upper-level ridging strengthens, bringing the potential for heat-related headlines.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The Mid-South is currently experiencing a cloudy and unseasonably cool morning, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. GOES East Water Vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough over the Ohio River Valley, positioned between an anomalous ridge across the Intermountain West and the Plains. Surface analysis indicates a frontal boundary near the I-40 corridor, consistent with high-resolution guidance suggesting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon as the front drifts southward. Severe weather is not expected due to limited instability.

The upper-level trough will shift southward and wobble westward through Wednesday as the ridge expands toward the Great Lakes. This pattern will maintain weak troughing across the region, supporting recurring afternoon convection. Precipitation coverage will increase from isolated to scattered on Monday to scattered- to-numerous by Tuesday and Wednesday. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures about 5 degrees below normal, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. With PWAT values rising above 2 inches by Wednesday, efficient warm rain processes may lead to locally heavy downpours and gusty winds, though severe weather remains unlikely. Forecast rainfall totals range from 0.5 to 1.0 inches through Thursday morning, with higher amounts possible in stronger storms.

By Thursday, the upper-level ridge will flatten and shift south into the Lower Mississippi Valley, reducing rain chances. Summertime heat and humidity will return Friday and persist through the weekend as high pressure dominates. Heat indices are expected to reach 100F to 108F, which may necessitate heat- related headlines.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A frontal boundary along the I-40 corridor will slowly sink southward this afternoon and evening, accompanied by temporary MVFR CIGs and isolated to scattered SHRA. While isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out, confidence remains too low for inclusion in current TAFs. Slightly drier air will filter in behind the front overnight as winds weaken. While high-resolution guidance is not overly aggressive, crossover temperatures will likely be met at MKL and TUP, favoring patchy fog development with at least MVFR VSBYs. VFR conditions are expected to return by late morning as winds increase to near 8 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South throughout the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will generally remain above 40 percent, precluding any significant fire weather issues. Additionally, persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will ensure fuel moisture levels remain well-supported, mitigating wildfire risk. No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated through the upcoming week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.