textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- A dry cold front early Monday morning will bring cooler temperatures to start the week before a warming trend occurs midweek.

- Dry weather will prevail through at least the midweek.

- A secondary cold front late week will bring temperatures closer to normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Strong ridging, which brought record highs to three climate sites throughout the Mid-South today, has begun to erode ahead of a shortwave trough transiting the Great Lakes region. A cold front associated with the trough is also currently positioned just to the north of the region as of 03z, which will pass through Monday. Temperatures will quickly cool behind the front with lows Monday morning anywhere from 60 degrees ahead of the front to 40 degrees behind the front along our northern tier of counties. Highs will only reach into the 50s and upper 60s, potentially reaching into the low 70s across portions of north Mississippi. Evening upper air observations and model data indicate that very dry upper moisture profiles should prevent accumulating rainfall with the front.

Cooler weather will prevail into Tuesday as northerly winds and relaxed upper heights remain throughout the region behind the frontal passage. For several runs now, the GFS/ECMWF have resolved a weak 700-500 mb trough emanating from the central Rockies into the Plains, following the ridge southeastward into the Mid-South Tuesday. Although the cooler air mass behind the front will still be in place, sufficient height falls and weak 850 mb frontogenesis may be enough to moisten the mid levels towards rain production. However, PoPs are expected to remain low since the surface air mass will remain quite dry with forecast dew point depressions of 20 F or higher up to 850 mb. Therefore, any rain showers are expected to remain isolated and weak with no expectations of impactful precipitation.

Behind the weak upper disturbance, ridging will return along with southerly return flow into Wednesday. A back-door front may still remain along the Tennessee River, which could locally keep temperatures cooler. However, by Thursday, a combination of upper ridging and southerlies will bring temperatures back into the 80s. NBM probabilities of temperatures exceeding 85 F, a threshold that would break multiple records, currently sits at 50% - 70% on Thursday. Therefore, record-breaking temperatures are expected to return later this week. At the same time, another trough will be rounding the northern periphery of the ridge and amplify across the Great Lakes. Similar to tonight, a cold front will bring an end to the heat Friday with cooler temperatures through next weekend. Enough moisture may exist with this frontal passage for accumulating rainfall (<.5") for areas north of I-40. Low temperatures Sunday, especially north of I-40, currently have a 40% - 60% chance of dropping below 40 F. Cooler, drier weather will persist into Monday through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR. A cold front located across NE AR and the MO Bootheel and NW TN at 23/04z will continue moving through the region overnight. LLWS will continue ahead of the cold front. Expect gusty NNE winds behind the front, continuing through Monday. Winds will diminish after sunset on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A cold front will pass through the region early Monday morning, bringing a northerly wind shift and drier air into the region. Minimum relative humidity values will bottom out between 20% and 30% Monday afternoon with 20 ft winds between 10 and 15 mph. 20 ft winds will slacken into Tuesday night and will generally remain below 10 mph through the end of the period. Some isolated, light rain showers are possible (20% - 30% chance) across portions of eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi Tuesday, but much of the region will still experience minimum relative humidity values below 40%. Southwesterly return flow will bring minimum relative humidity values around and above 40% by Wednesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.