textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Cool conditions and crisp mornings will persist through the remainder of the weekend, with freeze probabilities ranging from 40 to 60 percent across northern portions of the Mid-South on Sunday. Early morning fog and frost is expected over the next couple of mornings.

- Near-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- A secondary cooldown will occur late week, bringing crisp mornings back into the forecast for the following weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

00Z upper air analysis showed northwest to nearly zonal mid-level flow aloft across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening with a southern stream upper-level low located near Baja California. Meanwhile, this evening's surface analysis placed a 1024 mb surface high over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. 00Z upper air soundings from surrounding sites indicated a substantial amount of dry air present. Late evening temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly clear skies and light to nearly calm winds will provide a conducive environment for excellent radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the 30s across most areas. Latest NBM data indicates there is a medium (30-50%) chance of temperatures at or below 32 degrees in a few favored areas of West Tennessee by Sunday morning. Latest METAR observations show temperatures approaching surface dewpoints across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee. NBM/REFS data indicates a low to medium (30-50%) chance for visibilities dropping to one half mile or less west of the Mississippi River and lower probabilities east for more impactful fog. Fog will likely be concentrated along area streams east of the Mississippi River with better coverage west. Some frost may also accompany the fog Sunday morning. Conditions will be monitored through the early morning hours for potential Fog Advisories if conditions warrant. However, no frost or freeze headlines will be considered with the end of the growing season back on October 31st.

Temperatures are expected to moderate into early week as the latest deterministic and ensemble model trends suggest the southern stream upper-level low will move into the Southern Plains and weaken into an open wave trough as it moves into the region by mid week. This open wave is expected to be eventually absorbed by a northern stream trough rotating through the eastern U.S by mid to late week. This will bring a return of rain chances to the area with amounts expected to be light at best. A return of much cooler air will follow this upper-level trough for late week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will aid in fog development. The most likely terminals to be affected will be JBR and MKL where TEMPOs for MVFR visibilities are in place. MEM has lower probabilities, but will continue to monitor. Any fog should quickly erode after sunrise as northwest winds increase to around 5-6 kts.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

High pressure will remain in place through the weekend with cool and dry conditions prevailing. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20- ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of next week. Early morning fog is expected both Sunday and Monday in areas mainly north of the TN and MS stateline.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.