textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday, bringing a localized risk for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- A warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Triple-digit heat indices are possible, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River, potentially requiring heat advisories for the Delta region.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A cutoff low near Meridian, MS, and a high-pressure ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley are driving an easterly flow across the Mid-South. Expect persistent clouds, showers, and thunderstorms through Wednesday. With precipitable water values (PWATs) exceeding 2.0 inches, localized flash flooding is possible, especially along and south of I-40. While a formal flood watch isn't needed, exercise caution near low-water crossings and streams during afternoon/evening downpours.

Thursday's forecast is trending wetter as the upper ridge weakens and the low shifts west, establishing a weak northwest flow aloft. Expect scattered, diurnal showers and thunderstorms (40- 60% probability) across the majority of the Mid-South.

Precipitation chances will decrease Friday through the weekend as a subtropical ridge moves in, leading to hot and humid conditions. Highs will reach the low-to-mid 90s. With heat indices expected to hit 105 F or higher, particularly across the Delta, heat advisories may be necessary.

Forecast confidence decreases for next week. While some models suggest oppressive heat and humidity with isolated to scattered storms, others indicate uncertainty regarding high temperatures due to potential shifts in the subtropical ridge and northern trough placement. Model spread remains significant (4-6 degrees), making the early week temperature/heat forecast uncertain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

TSRA will gradually decrease in coverage through midevening, as instability wanes. The possible exception would be TUP, which will be in a more direct path of any TSRA lifting northwest from AL. This east-southeasterly moisture fetch will bring a chance of a brief IFR CIG at MEM around sunrise.

Wednesday should be a near repeat of today, with VFR by 18Z interrupted by occasional SHRA / TSRA in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as ample moisture and wetting rain chances persist through at least Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will build across the region this weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.