textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Slightly below normal high temperatures will prevail through Wednesday, as chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. The chances for severe thunderstorms are low, but a few storms could produce strong winds and heavy downpours.

- Temperatures and humidity increase by Thursday and continue through the weekend. Heat Advisories may be needed. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will bring localized relief from the heat.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This morning's upper air analysis showed a midlevel trough extending from the Ohio River Valley into the lower Mississippi River Valley. This trough was flanked by a 594dam 500mb ridge centered over the 4-corners region, and a similar amplitude ridge centered near Bermuda.

As we head through the midweek, the upper trough will remain nearly stationary, providing continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday night into Thursday, the upper trough will lift east, allowing broad low amplitude ridging to edge into the Midsouth from the southern Plains. Late week high temperatures will respond accordingly, peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. At such time, low level return flow will strengthen over the Midsouth in response to height falls over the upper Midwest. Midsouth dewpoints will likely warm to the mid 70s, likely necessitating a return of heat headlines late in the week. Breezy conditions Thursday and Friday may provide some relief from the heat, while scattered showers and thunderstorms provide localized heat relief

Deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF depict a stalled front across the Midsouth this weekend, following the passage of an upper Midwest through. PWAT values of 2 to 2.25 inches appear likely along the stalled front, increasing excessive rainfall potential.

GEFS and EPS ensemble means depict an upper ridge amplifying over the central and northern Great Plains early next week. This would place the Midsouth under weak northeast flow aloft. This will likely keep us out of the worst of the heat, but not by much. In any case, it appears like a drier pattern is in store toward mid- July.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated to remain in this issuance. An upper-low and daytime heating will increase thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Therefore, PROB30s were drawn in at JBR/MKL/TUP for such. Confidence in coverage was not high enough to mention at MEM. Overnight, patchy fog may develop (30-50% chance) as winds go light along saturated soils, best chances along the Tennessee River. CAMs are hinting at another round of sporadic thunderstorms overnight, however, confidence was only high enough to include a PROB30 at JBR. Otherwise, northwest/variable winds will remain light through the TAF period.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South through early next week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above 40 percent with light 20ft winds. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast daily.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.