textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a warm front lifts north, bringing a return to higher humidity.

- Scattered showers and storms, potentially bringing heavy rain or gusty winds, are anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening as an upper-level system moves in from the northwest.

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity arrive Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, with heat indices of 105 or greater expected daily through the middle of next week; practice heat safety and stay hydrated.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Current surface analysis shows a stationary front stretching from the ArkLaTex into central Mississippi and South Carolina, with a 1022 mb high over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Radar shows diminishing showers along the front, while dry conditions prevail elsewhere across the Mid-South. Water vapor imagery highlights broad eastern CONUS troughing and an Oklahoma Panhandle MCS, keeping the Mid-South in a northwest flow pattern.

On Friday, the front will lift north as a warm front but is expected to stall near the MS/TN border through the evening, heavily influencing local convective potential. Remnants of the Oklahoma MCS will drift in from the northwest. While high- resolution models show potential for showers and isolated storms along and north of I-40, weak upper-level forcing and limited instability dampen confidence. The highest development potential remains along the stalled warm front in northern Mississippi.

Convective activity increases Saturday with another approaching MCS. Impacts are most likely north of I-40; however, timing and evolution depend on a building subtropical ridge. If this ridge strengthens, it may act to suppress or deflect convective activity to the north and east of our region.

As the warm front clears late Saturday morning, heat and humidity will build. West of the Mississippi River, heat indices may reach 105 degrees, necessitating a potential Heat Advisory if cloud cover remains limited.

By early next week, the subtropical ridge centers over the Lower Mississippi Valley, initiating a multi-day period of extreme heat. Ensemble guidance (LREF/NBM) indicates high confidence in triple-digit temperatures and heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through mid-week. A significant, multi-day heat wave is becoming increasingly likely for the Mid-South.

AC3

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Stratus continues to spread north ahead of a stalled frontal boundary, accompanied by a swath of showers from an MCV. Rather dry air aloft from a previous day's cold frontal passage has kept most showers from reaching the surface. The stalled frontal boundary will begin to lift northward this afternoon, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances, first at TUP this afternoon and spreading to the northern terminals after 00z.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal, as minimum relative humidity values are expected to stay above 40%. While isolated showers persist in northeast Mississippi today, precipitation coverage will increase across the Mid-South from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Dry conditions return Sunday, accompanied by building heat and humidity into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.