textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Gradually increasing humidity will accompany highs in the mid to lower 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the Mid-South Tuesday for heat indices up to 108 degrees.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances late Thursday into Friday. Behind this front, highs will moderate to the low to mid 90s through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A calm and warm night is on display across the Mid-South under clear skies and mostly calm winds at the surface. Another hot and dry day will be present again Tuesday as a 595dam ridge, currently centered over the eastern Central Plains, continues to broaden east and heights continue to rise. Southerly flow will also usher in slightly increased moisture allowing dewpoints to gradually rise across the region. Afternoon highs in the mid to lower 100s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat indices 105+F in the Delta Region, portions of northeast Mississippi, and portions of West Tennessee. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued and will go into effect from 11AM through 8PM Tuesday in these areas. A few pop-up showers can't be ruled out mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line Tuesday afternoon with increased moisture in combination with peak daytime heating. Any precipitation that does fall will not be enough to help ongoing drought conditions and marginal fire weather concerns.

Wednesday will be largely a rinse and repeat of Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge continues to dominate the region with hot and largely dry conditions. A Heat Advisory will likely be warranted across portions of the Mid-South once again Wednesday, however, this will greatly depend on dewpoints as ridging begins to flatten out ahead of a front. NBM continues to overdo dewpoints with the current airmass, therefore, dewpoints have been hedged down a bit across the Mid-South.

Come Thursday, a pattern change will commence as an upper-level low pressure system starts to dip down over eastern Canada. Weak troughing will begin to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley. An attendant cold front and modest height falls will bring our next shot at appreciable rainfall Thursday into Friday. Rainfall amounts remain meager as this front will be moving over persistent ridging and dry air here in the Mid-South, however, we welcome any rainfall to hopefully help alleviate worsening drought conditions. The latest LREF guidance depicts around a 20- 35% of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 20 kts of 0-6km bulk wind shear amidst increased forecast PWATs, around 1.8-2.0", both Thursday and Friday afternoon into evening. We'll be keeping an eye on the overall severe potential with this next system amidst the modest height falls and peak daytime heating both days. More refined details will come into fruition in the coming days. Post-frontal temperatures look to drop about 2-4 degrees with highs in the low to mid 90s late weak and into the weekend. We'll still be above normal for this time of the year, but it will feel better than the lower 100s we witnessed this past week.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR. Light east winds overnight will veer to south/southeast on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values teeter around 35-40% tomorrow as moisture gradually increases. 20 ft winds will be light through the fire weather period, likely keeping fire weather concerns at a minimum. Our next shot at wetting rain returns Thursday ahead of a cold front.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ036-048-049- 058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-002-007- 008-010>013-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ088-089.