textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather through Monday morning with a continued Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) through the daytime. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances will continue for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures remaining in the mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

As of 10:30 PM, convective activity remains minimal over the Mid- South. This is likely due to a strong EML present on the 00Z soundings from OHX and JAN. A different environment is taking shape just to our northwest where a weaker EML is beginning to erode. Storms continue to fire over southern Missouri, quickly growing upscale and posing a damaging wind and large hail threat. The forecast for the next several hours remains tricky due to discrepancies in model guidance. The latest WoFS run keeps storms out of the Mid-South through 1AM, favoring rapid dissipation of the current storms over southern Missouri. This scenario is not out of the question given that storms would need to overcome a stronger EML along with decreasing instability and shear to maintain strength. On the other hand, several CAMs hold onto storms longer than the WoFS with damaging winds becoming the main concern over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Regardless of which scenario manifests, there is a nonzero chance for severe storms through the overnight hours, though the main concern area will lie west of the Mississippi River. The evolution of tonight's storms will determine our severe weather chances for Monday. As of now, the most likely scenario is ongoing convection in the morning with storms reinvigorating in the afternoon south of I-40. This is corroborated by the 00Z suite of CAMs. However, midlevel lapse rates around 5 C/km will greatly hinder upscale storm growth. Given uncertainty in environmental parameters and evolution of convection, the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains the best outlook for severe storms. Should storms become severe in the afternoon, damaging winds will be the primary concern. One additional facet to watch on Monday will be the potential for localized flooding. Anomalously high precipitable water values will produce efficient rainfall rates, meaning storms will be able to dump large amounts of precipitation in a short period of time. Should these storms begin to train over the same area, rivers and streams may quickly rise to bankfull. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists areawide on Monday, highlighting the flooding potential.

The remainder of the work week will be defined by disturbances moving within northwest flow aloft. This pattern will bring daily shots at showers and storms, though greater precipitation chances look to arrive in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. Severe weather probabilities remain less than 20 percent for the rest of the week. Instead, localized flooding will become the greater concern depending on where the greatest precipitation axis develops. The latest ensemble guidance keeps an areawide rainfall total of 1.5 to 2.5 inches through Friday evening. However, higher amounts are anticipated given prolific rainfall producing storms throughout the week. A localized flooding threat is anticipated each day and we will continue to monitor these trends in future forecast updates. Long range guidance is beginning to suggest an end to the unsettled weather this weekend with both the GFS and ECMWF favoring upper level ridging building into the Mid-South. Should this occur, dry and hot conditions would be anticipated for the end of June.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

CIGS at TUP have already dropped to IFR and should remain IFR through at least mid-morning. A cold front will approach from the northwest overnight resulting in increasing coverage of storms across the Midsouth. As convection begins, CIGS will begin to lower, becoming MVFR if not briefly IFR before sunrise. Cigs should slowly improve tomorrow. S/SW winds will become more westerly by tomorrow afternoon, then north tomorrow evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, primarily during peak heating, though timing remains uncertain. VCSH and PROB30 TSRA will be maintained through most of the period. JBR and MKL should see VFR conditions by 2300z, confidence is not as high at TUP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.