textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- More seasonable temperatures and lowered humidity have arrived. However, the Mississippi Delta and portions of north Mississippi remain under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today until relief arrives for these areas tomorrow.

- Increased rain chances return to the Mid-South Friday and will linger into Saturday with a potential heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A much cooler day, in comparison to the past few oppressive heat days, is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s thanks to yesterday's cold front. This front has stalled just south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line warranting a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Mississippi Delta Region and has been extended across portions of north Mississippi through 8PM. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-South leading to muggy conditions as dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s north of this front and upper 70s to lower 80s south. The latest KNQA radar sweep indicates very light radar returns north of this front with enough instability (~2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 30 kts of effective shear, and PWATs around 2.1") to support a few weak thunderstorms over north Mississippi. As we move into the afternoon hours, the parameter spacing will remain about the same south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. Severe weather is not expected today, though, the parameter space may support a few stronger diurnally driven thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds.

By tomorrow, dewpoints will continue to decrease as PWATs also fall below 2.0" for much of our area. Though the Mississippi Delta region may still retain dewpoints in the upper 70s, being our hot spot again tomorrow, a Heat Advisory is not anticipated. Decreased PWATs and a less humid airmass will also support an overall dry day with mostly clear skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow. Dry conditions will not linger very long as by Friday, a weak upper-level trough and a surface low will begin moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley. An attendant cold front is also expected to begin edging closer to our area Friday morning with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances out ahead of it. By the evening hours Friday, this positively tilted will continue to push east into the Ohio River Valley with the attendant cold front beginning to push across the Mid-South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will become more widespread in nature and linger into the early evening hours Saturday. Digging into the parameter spacing Friday into Saturday, this system is shaping up to be more of a potential heavy rainfall than severe event, as forecast PWATs surge to 2.2"+ and the latest LREF has <10% of >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 25 kts of 0-6km bulk wind shear. We will continue to monitor the overall trend of this system as details become more clear.

The aforementioned trough will continue migrating east through the weekend with a few pop-up showers along the Tennessee River and pleasant temperatures in the 80s. Moving into next workweek, temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lowered dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s as ensembles are hinting at near north upper-level flow and an overall dry airmass following behind the aforementioned trough and front.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A few showers remain across north Mississippi early this afternoon and therefore will carry VCSH remarks at KTUP through 21z. VFR forecast will continue across all terminals through the period with some passing mid and high level cloud cover. Winds will be out of the north and northeast generally less than 7 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010>013- 015>017-020>024.

TN...None.