textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend due to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- Frigid temperatures and single digit to negative wind chills are expected across the Mid-South, tonight into Sunday morning as an Arctic airmass settles back into the area.

- Temperatures will warm next week with rain chances increasing on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

12Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show a shortwave trough stretching from the Canadian Maritimes into the Upper Midwest. The Lower Mississippi Valley remains under the influence of an upper level trough which encompasses the eastern half of the United States. Areas east of the Mississippi River are seeing a few low to mid clouds, while sunny skies prevail elsewhere. Late morning temperatures are in the lower 30s over portions of north central and northeast Mississippi and 20s across the remainder of the Mid-South. Confidence remains high (>90% chance) for bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values this weekend.

Short-term model trends indicate a shortwave trough will rotate through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late tonight into Saturday morning. Any precipitation is expected to remain upstream over Kentucky and Middle and East Tennessee. A 1044 mb surface high will build in across the region this weekend, resulting in a return of cold arctic air for the weekend. Elevated winds this evening combined with temperatures falling into the teens will produce wind chill values down to the single digits below zero. Winds are expected to be lighter for the remainder of the weekend with the coldest temperatures occurring Saturday night into Sunday morning as temperatures fall back into the teens to single digits above zero. The current Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather remain in effect with no changes needed at this time.

Temperatures will finally moderate above freezing towards early next week as shortwave ridging builds in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The next chance for precipitation will come by the middle of next week as a shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow aloft moves through the area. LREF probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.5 inches remains low around 20-30% at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Gusty north winds will persist throughout much of the period as an Arctic air mass moves in from the northwest. Hi-res guidance is consistent with two areas of stratus moving into the region, one from the northwest and mainly VFR, and one from the east in the MVFR range. The highest confidence in MVFR CIGs will be at MKL and TUP, where there is a 50 to 80% chance. MEM remains on the edge with medium confidence of MVFR CIGs near daybreak for a few hours.

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid to late morning on Saturday. North winds will become quite gusty in the afternoon hours, particularly at TUP, where gusts will exceed 30 knots at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH will remain in the 45 to 60 percent range through early next week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts on Saturday, but fuel moisture remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ058.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>009-014.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.