textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist through at least Saturday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances may begin to return early next week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A pleasant overnight period is currently progressing across the Mid-South with some cloudiness generally across West TN. Temperatures across the region are currently in the 60s to low 70s, which is certainly welcome after the past month and a half. As far as records go, Memphis did "only" reach 89 degrees today, which means our streak of consecutive 90 degree days officially came to an end with 49 days in a row. Into Wednesday, an upper- level ridge will continue to build just to our west, keeping the Mid-South in a northwesterly flow regime. This pattern will allow warm and dry conditions to develop through the remainder of the week. While high temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 80s, maybe with an occasional 90 degree reading in Mississippi, this will still be a few degrees above normal for the end of September.

Over the upcoming weekend, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will finally begin to break down, allowing for a series of shortwaves to pass through. While confidence is low in overall precipitation coverage, isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to creep back into the forecast by Sunday and into the early portions of next week. Through this same time frame, high temperatures will continue to nudge upward a few degrees, generally back into the upper 80s to low 90s. As we look towards the end of the current forecast period, guidance is beginning to hint at a strong upper-level system moving through the region somewhere towards the middle of next week. While uncertainty remains, this appears to be one of the stronger systems we have seen and could finally usher in true, fall-like conditions. There is still plenty of time and uncertainty, but some true fall-like weather could be on the horizon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Post-frontal cu continues to build in, bringing MVFR conditions across MKL/MEM/TUP through the overnight hours and a few hours at JBR. VFR conditions are expected to return across the airspace by the mid-afternoon hours. North/northeast winds will remain elevated at around 9-11 kts through much of Wednesday.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Dry conditions are expected through at least the beginning of next week with minimum relative humidity values remaining at or above 40% through Friday. Even drier conditions will move in through the weekend, with values falling below 40%. Some 20ft winds may exceed 10 mph on Wednesday afternoon, otherwise winds will remain at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.