textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Daytime high temperatures through Friday will be more typical of late May or early June, as a strong upper level ridge continues to dominate the Mid-South's weather. Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs expected to approach 90 degrees across a majority of the Mid-South.

- A passing upper-level trough will bring a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. There is low to medium confidence for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, cool, and less humid conditions will prevail for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

00Z upper air analysis features an upper-level ridge centered over Florida with southwest flow aloft present from the Southern Plains and across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Warm and humid conditions are present across the Mid-South with late evening temperatures in the 70s with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s.

An anomalously strong upper-level ridge will bring well above normal temperatures to the Mid-South through Friday. This ridge will remain in place on Wednesday, resulting in rain-free conditions and highs in the 80s. Short-term models indicate mid- level heights weakening late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Short-term CAMs indicate upstream overnight convection will weaken late Wednesday night as it encounters a more stable airmass over the area. Favorable forcing will move away from the region during the morning hours with a secondary shortwave moving through the region Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.

Favorable conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening if the atmosphere can become unstable again. LREF joint probabilities of 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE and Bulk Shear in excess of 30 kts indicate a medium (40-60%) chance of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Model soundings also indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively straight hodographs which support a hail and wind threat for any severe thunderstorms.

Shortwave ridging will build in behind this front for Friday with near record highs expected as temperatures approach 90 degrees for the first time this year. This warm period of weather will come to an end this weekend as a cold front brings another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. Neither of these systems are expected to produce enough rainfall to overcome the moderate to extreme drought conditions occurring this spring thus far. Slightly below normal to near normal temperatures are expected behind the front into early next week. Above normal temperatures are anticipated to make a return next week, but confidence remains low for additional rain chances with a large spread in model solutions for next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue this issuance. Southwest winds will begin gusting up to 30 kts around 15Z along a tightened pressure gradient. Gusts are expected to largely drop out after 00Z, however, a few occasional gusts up to 20 kts cannot be ruled out at JBR/MEM. Marginal LLWS ahead of an upper-level trough is expected overnight Thursday at MEM. This same trough will also bring light showers to MEM early Thursday, however, confidence in timing was only high enough for a PROB30 at this time.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal throughout the week as MinRH remains above 30 percent. Wetting rain chances exist on Thursday for areas mainly along and north of I-40. A cold front will bring additional rainfall Saturday, across a broad portion of the Mid-South. Despite cool temperatures on Sunday, MinRH values Sunday afternoon are expected to drop below 30 percent over the majority of the Midsouth.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.