textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday afternoon, along with slightly above normal temperatures. A passing upper level disturbance will bring increased rain chances on Sunday. A few strong storms will be possible, though no organized severe weather is expected over the Midsouth this weekend. - Temperatures will warm into the 80s Monday and Tuesday, in advance of a midweek cold frontal passage and increased thunderstorms chances.

- Minor flooding will continue along the Mississippi and Saint Francis Rivers through the weekend, with river levels continuing to slowly fall.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A relatively quiet mid-spring pattern will prevail over the Midsouth through the weekend.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, aided by MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg in advance of a shortwave trough lifting through central MO. Convection over the Midsouth should end this evening, as the trough axis exits and the boundary layer stabilizes.

A weak cold front will bring slightly drier air to the Midsouth on Saturday. This will limit rain chances, especially north of I-40. Rain chances will increase Saturday night and early Sunday, as a southern plains MCS tracks eastward along a relatively flat thickness ridge into the Midsouth. This MCS should decay Sunday morning, but may aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

The ridge will amplify considerably on Monday, in response to steep upstream height falls over the Rockies. By Monday afternoon, a northern branch component of a the western U.S. trough will eject into the upper Midwest, while a less progressive southern branch low digs into the desert Southwest. From Monday night through midday Wednesday, the main storm track will extend from the southern plains to the mid-MS River Valley. Across the Midsouth, instability and deep layer sheer will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in daytime. Showers and thunderstorms should be most numerous north of I-40.

12Z global model consensus depicts the southern branch low ejecting into the Central Plains and mid-MS River valley Wednesday night. In this scenario, peak thunderstorm chances for the Midsouth would occur Wednesday night into Thursday, aided by diffluent flow aloft and PWAT values around 1.75 inches.

PWB

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

This evening's precipitation will lead to a heightened fog threat at MEM/MKL/TUP overnight as winds go light. IFR conditions will move over TUP for a few hours overnight as fog moves in. MVFR conditions are expected tomorrow morning and into early afternoon across all TAF sites with the movement of a cold front. VFR conditions will return shortly after 18Z. Predominately light winds will shift from the southwest to more north/northeast by the end of the period.

AEH

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.