textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- A warm-up is expected Friday and into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s in some areas.

- Long-range outlooks favor a transition to a wet and above normal precipitation pattern returning next workweek.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Another calm night is on display with light north winds at the surface as we sit on the back side Wednesday's dry cold front. Thursday will feature cooler temperatures with afternoon highs spanning the 70s to lower 80s across the Mid-South. Minimum relative humidity values will be mostly <30% areawide Thursday. However, fire weather concerns are not anticipated as winds will remain largely sub 10 mph. Dry and sunny conditions will also persist Thursday as surface high pressure slides east and upper- level northwest flow remains over the region.

Temperatures warm pretty drastically come Friday as weak upper- level ridging begins to build over the region, with warm, humid air filtering in with it. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s with some areas potentially reaching into the 90s. Though dry conditions are expected to persist, a weak shortwave looks to eject in across the Tennessee and Kentucky border late Friday potentially bringing in enough moisture and lift to produce a few showers in these areas. Though confidence is low with rain chances <30%. Moving into the weekend, dry and above normal temperatures will persist as a warm front lifts north, and weak upper-level ridging remains over the region. Come late Sunday, ensembles are in decent agreement that southwest flow will begin building over the region, keeping temperatures above normal.

Next workweek, confidence continues to increase in a shift to more of a wet and unsettled weather pattern as upper-level southwest flow remains over the region and long range models continue to hint at weak upper-level troughing building east from the northern Rockies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase mid afternoon Monday and persist through mid-week. LREF probabilities in 500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of bulk wind shear remain very meager Tuesday, <15% as there is not much of a synoptic response and much of the instability gets displaced northwest of our area. More defined details will be ironed out in future forecast updates. For now prepare for wet and unsettled conditions late Monday into at least midweek.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 30 hours. A few lingering north wind gusts should drop out over the next hour or two. Winds will shift northeasterly by daybreak at around 6 kts or less before shifting more easterly around 00Z.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns aren't anticipated Thursday as 20 ft winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph, despite minimum relative humidity values largely < 30%. Moisture will begin to increase come Friday as minimum relative humidity values increase above 35% and remain through the weekend. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns next workweek.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.