textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today for portions of east Arkansas and north Mississippi. Heat index values will peak at 107 degrees.

- Conditions will turn cooler and drier this weekend, providing a reprieve from triple-digit heat index values.

- Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is currently just south of the Memphis metropolitan area as of 11 AM. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s on the 'cool' side of the boundary with slightly warmer and moister air across most of north Mississippi. This front is anticipated to continue its descent this afternoon, which could lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, so a slight chance PoP was added for this afternoon near the I-22 corridor. The warm side of the boundary is under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today for heat index values up to 107F.

Once the front clears the region, cooler and drier conditions will prevail through the weekend. Drier air will allow for heat index values to fall below the triple digits for much of the area, with the Delta region finally falling below 105F. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday along and west of the Mississippi River, but model soundings indicate significant dry air, resulting in low confidence regarding convective coverage and accumulation on Saturday.

Current forecast depicts a shortwave embedded in northwest flow bringing showers and thunderstorms across the area early Monday morning, but this seems to be heavily weighted on the GFS and its ensemble members. Northwest flow looks to be the favored pattern into the next week, but most guidance suggests this pattern really taking hold on Tuesday as an upper ridge extends across much of the south central US. The northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side, however, this results in the Mid- South being vulnerable to MCSs propagating southward. While ensemble members have low probability of severe weather ingredients, this is likely to change in the presence of an MCS that does develop threatening damaging winds. While the SPC has not issued a formal convective outlook for this period, we will continue to monitor the potential for MCS development and associated damaging wind threats.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A quiet period is expected with mainly VFR conditions and light mainly N/NW winds. Patchy light fog is possible near MKL and TUP early tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An overall low fire weather risk will remain in place over the next few days. A weak cold front will clear the region today and decrease relative humidity values to around 40% this afternoon along and west of the Mississippi River. This trend will spread across the region for the next few days, however, surface and 20- ft winds will remain light. Due to light surface winds, some patchy fog is anticipated across the Tennessee River valley for the next few mornings. Wetting rain chances will ramp up early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011- 020>024.

TN...None.