textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Record-setting heat is anticipated through midweek with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated Friday as a cold front traverses the Mid-South.

- Seasonable temperatures return this weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Morning upper air analysis places an amplifying ridge over the Gulf coastline in Texas and east into the southeastern CONUS with a trough centered over Nevada. In response to increasing upper heights, surface temperatures will continue to remain at record levels through Thursday, climbing into the low to mid 90s. In addition to the heat, southerlies have begun to advect higher moisture north and east into the Ohio River Valley, leading to heat indices near 100 F along and west of the Mississippi River. Instability will begin to increase as well this afternoon with MUCAPE values increasing to around 1000 - 1500 J/kg. Observed soundings and forecast soundings alike show an uncapped air mass, which would allow for isolated convection. However, most CAMs do not initiate any convection today, likely due to a lack of sustained low-level convergence. So, showers and thunderstorms are unlikely through Tuesday.

Wednesday will be a different story with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances ahead of a stalling cold front. A cold front will sag south through Tuesday and much of Wednesday, eventually stalling just north of the Mid-South. Moisture will continue to be advected in advance of the boundary and will keep the moderate instability from Tuesday throughout the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and south of the boundary. Forecast soundings indicate that effective wind shear values will be quite weak at a paltry 15 - 20 knots. This will lead to unorganized, mostly single-cell thunderstorm structures capable of gusty winds. PWATs are forecast to surpass 2.00" within the moisture axis, which is well above the 95th percentile for this time of year. Therefore, rainfall within thunderstorms will be heavy and could produce localized flooding issues. Storm motions above 15 knots and dry ground will keep a higher flooding threat at bay, but an east-west oriented stationary boundary could lead to training thunderstorms which could locally increase flash flooding potential, especially across the northern third of the CWA.

Surface high pressure to the east of the region will begin to move farther east into Thursday. Moisture that will be present is then forecast to advect north with drier air in the wake of Isaias over the gulf being advected into the region. This is expected to dramatically decrease precipitation coverage throughout the region through Thursday. In the meantime, a trough will begin to amplify over the Midwest, throwing a strong cold front south across the central CONUS. The cold front will arrive at the Mid-South Friday with blustery winds, cooler air, and, thanks to the removal of moisture, dry conditions. Highs on Friday will therefore mark a significant change relative to the rest of this week with highs in the 60s and 70s for the majority of the region. Similar weather will persist through the weekend. Lows will also fall into the 40s Saturday and Sunday mornings with a 30% - 40% chance for portions of West Tennessee to fall into the 30s Sunday morning.

Another aspect to the forecast, especially through this weekend, will be enhanced fire danger potential. Ahead of and just behind the cold front, winds will become sustained between 15 - 25 mph with gusts above 30 mph expected. Much of the region remains in D2 (Severe) and D3 (Extreme) drought, keeping fuels 1-hour and 10- hour fuels dry. This would lead to the potential for fires to spread in the absence of higher surface dewpoints with forecast relative humidity values around or below 30% late Friday and Saturday. Therefore, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement may be required Friday with SPC placing a 40% Critical outline for areas along the Mississippi River. For now, Red Flag Warnings are not anticipated due to minimum relative humidity values below 25% remaining isolated, but guidance at this range often underestimates the degree of mixing. So, lower relative humidity values could enter the forecast over a larger area through the end of the week and is worth monitoring in future forecast updates.

An upper ridge axis will move east from the Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley by the end of the weekend. NBM guidance produces a gradual warming trend into next week, but deterministic guidance still seems to have run-to-run inconsistencies regarding the surface pattern. So, cooler temperatures and dry weather could last longer into next week. For now, expect average, fall-like weather to end the forecast period with the expectation for a warming trend late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A front will stall just north of the Mid-South tomorrow morning bringing showers and storms to areas mainly north of I-40. PROB30s remain at JBR/MEM/MKL for -TSRA from mid morning and through the afternoon hours. Precipitation should clear much of the airspace by 01Z. Southwest winds will go light and calm overnight before picking up around 8-10 kts tomorrow across terminals.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Fire weather conditions will remain somewhat tame through Thursday and Gulf moisture streams into the region from the southwest. Wetting rain potential arrives Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee.

A cold front will arrive early Friday, bringing a shot of cooler, drier air into the Mid-South. 20-foot winds will increase to 20 - 25 mph with gusts expected to climb above 30 mph through the day. Relative humidity values are currently expected to remain between 30 and 40 percent, but guidance may shift values lower as we continue moving through the week. Regardless, 1-hour and 10-hour fuels are forecast to remain at or below 10 percent moisture content, which could be exacerbated by multiple days of record heat and little precipitation. This will likely be most prominent in areas across northern Mississippi and within the Mississippi River Delta where a combination of light to no wetting rains, elevated winds, and dry fuels will overlap. For now, we only expect the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement Friday as relative humidity values currently remain above the 25 percent needed for Red Flag Warnings.

20-foot winds will relax Saturday, but minimum relative humidity values will drop to at or below 30%, leading to another day of elevated fire danger but not quite as severe as Friday. Similar conditions will persist Sunday with increasing moisture bringing minimum relative humidity values above 40% to end the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.