textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 536 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Light shower activity over northeast Mississippi will expand northward across parts of the Mid-South overnight into Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible across north Mississippi through Sunday, while most other areas stay dry.

- A secondary cold front moves through late Sunday, ushering in dry conditions across the region through late next week alongside highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Cloudy and mild conditions continue across the Mid-South late this morning. Cloud cover remains stubborn across the region, driven by deep southwesterly flow aloft and persistent northeast winds at the surface. Surface analysis places a 1017mb low over East Tennessee with a quasi-stationary boundary extending southwest into central Mississippi and northern Alabama. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough digging across central Texas with a broad trough progressing through the Northern Plains.

Extensive cloudiness will persist through the weekend as persistent northeast surface flow keeps low-level moisture trapped beneath a passing shortwave traversing the Lower Mississippi Valley. Hi-res model guidance continues to indicate scattered post-frontal shower activity across northeast Mississippi today and tonight driven by weak broad ascent. Areas further north should remain dry with temperatures holding steady in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

As the shortwave and northern stream longwave phase this evening, additional isolated to scattered showers will spread across much of the Mid-South into Sunday morning. Rain chances will shift south and linger over northeast Mississippi through Sunday afternoon, where an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. A reinforcing cold front will move through Sunday night, shunting moisture south, ending precipitation, and ushering in a cooler, drier air mass.

Temperatures will return near seasonal norms early next week, with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and morning lows in the 50s under broad northwest flow aloft. Ensemble guidance (LREF) indicates a gradual warming trend through late week as a subtropical ridge builds over the region. Highs will likely top out in the mid to upper 80s by Friday-roughly 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Both deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs feature a cut- off low developing beneath the ridge by next weekend, which could bring a return of unsettled, wet weather to the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

MVFR prevailed at MEM and MKL this afternoon. PIREPs around MEM showed a relatively thick MVFR cloud layer, with base and tops around FL015 and FL030, respectively. This deck cleared JBR at 21Z, and the shallow frontal inversion appears to have mixed out completely at TUP, with VFR the result.

NBM and LAMP guidance depict a trend above fuel alternate minimums at MEM and MKL early this evening. Given the thickness of the lower deck, confidence in the optimistic guidance solutions is limited. KPAH radar VPW shows NE winds of 10-15KT in the FL010-020 layer, indicating some inflow of drier air into the evening hours. This may be offset by the return of scattered high- based -SHRA depicted in the global models after 06Z. Not a straightforward aviation forecast beyond mid-evening. TAFs will rely a good bit on persistence and continue the IFR trend at TUP toward sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Mild and humid conditions persist through Sunday, with light, isolated rain chances confined mainly to northern Mississippi. A robust cold front passage late Sunday afternoon into the evening will usher in a significantly cooler and drier airmass. Behind the front, minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop near 30 percent south of Interstate 40 on Monday and Tuesday, with a medium-to-high probability of widespread relative humidity dropping below 30 percent on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain-free conditions and low fire weather moisture levels will likely continue through late next weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.