textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Prolonged extreme cold will continue to create dangerous conditions through this week, particularly for areas in North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee still impacted by power outages.

- Travel conditions will remain hazardous for several days. Subfreezing temperatures will continue for many locations through next weekend, which will not help melt any snow/sleet/ice on the roads.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A cold night with clear skies is underway across the Mid-South. Temperatures are ranging from the upper single digits across northwest Tennessee to around 20 degrees across north Mississippi. Winds have generally slowed, but due to the already cold temperatures, any slight bit of wind will have bitterly cold wind chills. The feels like temperatures are in the 5 to 5 below range across most of the area, with the exception of our southern tier of counties across north Mississippi hovering around 10 degrees.

A strong area of high pressure has begun its southeast descent causing our winds to shift from the northwest to the southwest. The wind shift will keep temperatures from plunging much further under clear skies. Temperatures early Tuesday morning will still drop to the single digits, sub zero for some areas, with wind chill values as low as -12F across northwest Tennessee. The Extreme Cold Warning Covers this well and is likely to be allowed to expire at its original time of 12 PM Tuesday. Skies will remain clear and bring in an abundance of sunshine to aid in the slow thaw. Sleet pack is more difficult to melt than snow pack due to its opacity, so minimal melting is expected as sub- freezing temperatures persist. There may be a glimmer of hope across the region for a narrow window of greater than 32F temperatures tomorrow afternoon from the southwest flow. From the HREF, probabilities of temperatures greater than 32F are generally between 20-60%. The corridor for the favored area is from Jonesboro to Tupelo and westwards. Clarksdale and Amory have much higher probabilities and are likely to rise above freezing.

While the southwest flow may benefit our temperatures, it will bring enhanced moisture and threaten freezing fog Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Probabilities of less than a half of mile visibility are already hovering between 40-60% by 10 PM. Hi-res guidance does generally confine this to the I-40 corridor, with a little wiggle room slightly north and south of it. This is a fairly strong signal early on, this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Wednesday will be gradually a repeat of Tuesday, but slightly cooler with morning fog and cloud cover prohibiting warming. A weak surface low will begin to develop over the ArkLaTex region and WAA will bring the warmest day of the week on Thursday. The surface low is favored to track along the Gulf Coast and stretch another cold front across the region by Friday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory may be warranted along the northern edge of the Mid-South for apparent temperatures being less than 0F as probabilities from the LREF are 40-60%. If Cold Weather Headlines are not needed Friday, confidence increases for needing these products over the weekend with probabilities greater than 70% area wide for apparent temperatures less than 0F Saturday morning. The cold weather does not look to budge as a synoptic change is not anticipated through at least early next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR expected at all four terminals to start the period with south- southwest winds between 5 and 10 knots. A patch of IFR CIGs had developed overnight across southeast Arkansas that could make it to JBR and MEM within the next few hours. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce any category changes as of 12z, but satellite/METAR trends will be monitored throughout this morning.

By 16z, all sites are expected to be VFR with south-southwest winds remaining, gusting between 15 and 20 knots. This forecast will hold until sunset and winds decrease in magnitude, becoming variable to calm overnight. Recent trends in HREF and NBM hint at fog and freezing fog potential tomorrow, especially at MEM and MKL, but the likelihood of either terminal dropping below 1 SM is only around 50%. Therefore, have not changed the MVFR visibility reductions introduced in the 06z TAFs. JBR and TUP could also see fog-related impacts, but confidence is too low to introduce any category changes with this issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Very cold air is expected to persist through the week, especially Tuesday morning. There is a low to medium chance of freezing fog Wednesday morning. Fire weather concerns are minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.