textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity return on Sunday. Heat indices each day are forecast to reach Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning criteria. Therefore, heat headlines are in effect now through 8PM Tuesday.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek, providing some relief from the extreme heat.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Surface observations as of 10PM Saturday depict areas of patchy fog developing over the Mid-South. Given clearing skies, light winds, and low dewpoint depressions, dense fog potential will continue to increase over the next several hours. A Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted if trends hold. Visibilities will quickly improve after sunrise.

Dangerous heat and humidity will settle over the Mid-South on Sunday as an upper level ridge, centered over the Rockies, strengthens to 599 dam. Afternoon highs will warm into the low to and mid 90s with heat indices reaching as high as 113 degrees. Unfortunately, temperatures will continue to warm into next week with a few areas reaching 100 degrees on Tuesday. A Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning are in effect through 8PM Tuesday. The warning area may be expanded as we head into Monday and Tuesday. Aside from the heat and humidity, rain chances cannot be ruled out Sunday into Monday as an MCS develops over the Midwest. This system will propagate southeast, potentially impacting areas along the Tennessee River. Confidence in this occurring is low due to run-to-run model inconsistencies and the placement of the aforementioned ridge. However, a stray storm or two cannot be ruled out into Monday.

On Wednesday, a back door cold front will moderate temperatures and dewpoints to the low 90s and upper 60s, respectively. While not providing much relief, this will be enough to decrease the need for heat headlines as we move into the latter half of the week. Long term guidance is hinting at increased rain chances for the upcoming weekend, but it remains too early to tell specifics.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

IFR formed near the TN River late Saturday evening, earlier and more widespread than anticipated. IFR/LIFR may develop westward once midlevel clouds around FL100 clear out and before additional high clouds spread in from the north.. At this time, MEM and JBR will likely remain VFR, but confidence is marginal. A few -SHRA may occur, associated with a subtle midlevel disturbance, but impacts should be minimal.

TSRA chances for Sunday afternoon have re-emerged in some of the CAM guidance, mainly along the TN River. 00Z HREF lightning probs depict TSRA remaining east of MKL, while REFS ensemble lightning probs depict TSRA clusters as far west as MEM around 21Z. Weak model consensus aside, given the extremely moist airmass and daytime heat, TSRA cannot be ruled out over any of the Midsouth TAF sites Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ004- 021-022-052>055-090>092.