textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours will persist daily through the weekend. While many areas will see little to no rainfall, the stronger storms will pose a threat of localized flash flooding.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of a few strong to severe storms on Monday, mainly across northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel.

- A cold front will deliver pleasant, drier afternoons and near-normal temperatures, with highs in the mid-80s, starting next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

What has been a very active afternoon is finally dwindling down to sporadic convective coverage as we pull further away from diurnally enhanced instability. A very messy surface pattern essentially has a weak surface low rotating about the Mid-South this evening, which will continue to spin towards the Tennessee Valley over the next 12-24 hours. In the center of this surface low comes a wind minima. The excessive amount of moisture we've seen today in conjunction with near zero wind speeds lends medium to high confidence in fog overnight. Latest HREF probabilities depict at least a 50% chance of dense fog (quarter mile visibility or less) for pretty much the whole area tonight into early Saturday morning. This will be something to monitor overnight for the need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory.

The weekend looks largely like a rinse and repeat forecast of the last several days. The previously mentioned surface low will gradually rotate about the Tennessee River Valley, giving way to showers and thunderstorms rotating about the center during peak heating. Again, there is little to no shear available to support any upscale growth. These will be mainly single celled thunderstorms reminiscent of summertime convection. As such, locally heavy rainfall in individual storms is going to be a factor pretty much through Sunday. With the isolated nature of this convection, most areas will not see any rain, but the ones that do could see an inch or so of rain in a given afternoon. This same wet pattern will be in place through at least the end of the weekend with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking in the afternoon hours under this messy surface pattern. Forecast surface analyses depict a bonafide cold front sweeping through on Monday afternoon, marking a pattern shift. Confidence is very low on severe weather at this time, but would not rule out at least a few strong storms.

A much more pleasant regime is on the way next week after Monday's cold front. Per the LREF 250 mb heights, once the omega block retrogrades back to the west, our upstream airmass will be cool and dry along a northwesterly transport wind aloft. There is still a predominant ridging component at least in the low levels, but this upper level flow will help curb humidities to pleasant levels for early summer despite near normal temperatures in the 80s. The current exceedingly moist airmass will take a while to fully dissipate from the column, so PoPs are still in the "slight chance" threshold of 15-25% most days next week. However, the convective coverage is not expected to be nearly as widespread as it has been this past week. The trend is definitely drier overall.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A mixed bag of low ceilings and fog will persist across the Mid- South for the next few hours. Dense fog has developed at JBR, but area webcams suggest this fog is localized. Visibility will improve by 14z. Otherwise, IFR ceilings across the CWA will gradually improve throughout the morning, lifting to VFR by 17- 18z. Scattered diurnal TSRA is expected again today, though coverage will be more limited than the past few days. Coverage is expected to be greatest over West TN and northeast MS, warranting a continuation of the PROB30 groups for thunder this afternoon.

Convection is expected to dissipate around or slightly after sunset with another round of fog and stratus late tonight. Some probabilistic data suggest higher probabilities of lower-end visibility tonight, so that will be something to watch closely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South into early next week, with continued showers and thunderstorms maintaining high fuel moisture.

A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.