textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Pleasant afternoon temperatures are anticipated through Monday with highs spanning the 80s.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the upper 80s to 90s by midweek through the end of the week, with some locations seeing heat index values approach 105 by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

If you were outside for any noticeable period this evening, then you know that the much awaited cold front has cleared the region. Conditions feel much less humid outside, with temperatures spanning the 70s for much of the area. Behind this frontal boundary, a much cooler and drier airmass will continue to filter into the area on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, which is well below normal for the beginning of August. From an upper-level perspective, the parent trough that drove Saturday's cold frontal boundary will remain over the eastern U.S. through Tuesday. This will allow for some scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon on Sunday for locations east of the MS River. Coverage of any shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday will likely be confined to along and east of the TN River. We will begin to see a slow return in the warmer and more humid temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with highs spanning the 80s Monday and returning to the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, somewhat zonal flow aloft will begin to develop across the Mid-South with a deepening trough axis across the northern Plains. With a developing surface high to the east, surface winds will return to a southwesterly flow regime and allow an even warmer and more moist airmass to return. This will spell the return of a somewhat typical, summertime pattern for the region, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values may begin to approach 105 degrees, especially across the Delta, so some Heat Headlines may be needed by the end of the week. As far as precipitation chances go, given the flow regime, latest thoughts are that PoPs will remain fairly isolated through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

An upper-level low over central Kentucky will produce MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites this morning. Conditions are anticipated to improve to VFR conditions by this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough rotating through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys supports VCSH at MKL and TUP, with a PROB30 at MEM. Northwest winds between 7-10 kts will decrease to 5 kts or less by tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.