textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 552 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Above-normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week, with high temperatures spanning the upper 50s to 60s through Friday.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will return Wednesday Night into Thursday, with the best chances (60% to 80%) generally along and east of the Mississippi River.

- Dry and warm conditions return Friday and will last through most of the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A mild and somewhat windy overnight period progresses across the Mid-South with plenty of clouds filtering in from the northwest. While a few echos have developed on radar over northeast portions of the Mid-South, this is likely not reaching the surface given the dry air that remains across the area. Winds are expected to remain elevated through the overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning, beginning to subside by the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will persist through much of the day on Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s to low 60s to the north and the upper 60s to near 70 degrees across the southern tier of the Mid-South.

Heading into Wednesday evening, a weak shortwave will move off of the plains and bring our next chance for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the Mid-South. As things stand, this does not appear to be a washout for the entire Mid-South and it would not be a surprise if some locations across northeast Arkansas miss out on the rainfall entirely. The best coverage for any showers will likely be along and east of the Mississippi River, especially into Thursday morning and into the afternoon. The one thing to watch along this shortwave will be where the weak surface boundary sets up and eventually stalls. Most guidance has the frontal boundary initially entering our area Wednesday night, stalling along the I-40 corridor by Thursday morning, before finally pushing further south Thursday afternoon. If the boundary lingers across the area into the afternoon, this could open a door for a few stronger thunderstorms across north Mississippi. However, chances still remain less than 5%, and given the slightly faster solution that CAMs have been trending towards, any thunderstorm coverage will likely remain fairly limited and likely south of our area. Rainfall totals will likely remain in the 0.25" to 0.5" range with slightly higher totals across northeast Mississippi and lower totals across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

By Friday, any lingering showers will exit the region with a weak upper-level trough remaining aloft. Despite the frontal boundary passage, temperatures will remain above-normal, in the 60s. Into Saturday, subtle WAA will return to the area and allow for temperatures to warm further, likely reaching the low 70s for much of the area. By Sunday and into the beginning of next week, model solutions begin to diverge with the breakdown of zonal flow aloft and the handling of multiple shortwaves passing through the region. While solutions tend to favor a warmer and increasingly wetter solution, confidence is low given the spread. As such, the forecast will carry slight to chance (20% to 40%) PoPs through the end of the current period, with above-normal temperatures continuing into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The latest GOES Nighttime satellite imagery reveals an MVFR deck materializing over southern Arkansas and propagating northeast towards MEM. The pressure gradient will remain moderate through this afternoon, warranting gusts at MEM and MKL.

A front will move into the region from the north by late afternoon and early evening. Coverage of -SHRAs will remain low at MEM and TUP and medium to high at MKL. The front will slowly move south overnight with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs along it. There is only a 10% chance of thunder, mainly near MKL and TUP towards Thursday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values will remain above 40%. Rain will move across the area on Thursday, with a drier airmass moving in by the weekend. While minRH values will likely dip to near 30% on Saturday, recent rains along with light winds are expected to limit fire danger concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.