textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Below normal temperatures today will return to near normal by Tuesday.

- Dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday afternoon.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the upper 80s to 90s by midweek through the end of the week, with some locations seeing heat index values approach 105 by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The primary short-term forecast concern centers on fog potential overnight. While satellite imagery depicts an eroding mid-level cloud deck (~6,000 ft), current dew point depressions of 3- 6 degrees suggest a narrowing window for saturation. Confidence in widespread fog remains low due to a weak but persistent west- to-east pressure gradient, likely maintaining light boundary layer mixing across the Mississippi River Valley. Consequently, expect fog development to remain confined to sheltered valleys where decoupling is most probable.

A highly amplified trough, especially for August standards, is oriented from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest into the western Gulf. This feature has been responsible for the mild temperatures, cloudy skies and light rain we experienced over the weekend. Sunday temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees below normal across much of the Mid-South. A strong ridge will build over the Plains today, shunting the trough east, becoming positioned over the Appalachians this afternoon. As the ridge builds in from the west, temperatures will trend closer to normal today. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s.

By midweek, the ridge will deamplify and transition across the Mississippi River Valley, initiating a warming trend with low to mid-90s expected from Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will suppress convection through Thursday, with only marginal rain chances (20-30%) returning late in the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Patchy fog near MKL may result in temporary MVFR conditions for the first 2 hours of the forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period at all sites as an upper-level trough continues to push away from the area. Light winds will increase to N/NW at 7-10 kts today before becoming light again by this evening. Kept AMD NOT SKED in for TUP due to occasional missing observations, especially at night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.