textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily from midweek through the remainder of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A relatively mild and calm overnight hour is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the mid to upper 70s. After some isolated showers and thunderstorms generally west of the MS River earlier this evening, all of the activity has diminished. Into tomorrow, an upper-level trough will begin to deepen through the Rockies, shifting our area into a primarily southwesterly flow regime. This will allow for additional moisture to return to the area, with a scattered chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms mainly north of I-40 by the afternoon. In addition, temperatures will remain well above-normal in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

A notable pattern shift will come on Tuesday as the Mid-South will transition into a wet pattern for the foreseeable future. This pattern will set the stage for a series of shortwaves to traverse the region through the remainder of the week as well as a cold front that will pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the area, keeping us in this pattern through at least the end of the work week. Jumping back to Tuesday, portions of the Mid-South are currently outlook in the Slight Risk (2/5) category from the Storm Prediction Center, primarily for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The better set-up synoptically will likely remain to the west and north of our area, but depending on how things evolve through the day on Tuesday, we are not necessarily out of the woods. As additional guidance comes into range, most are painting the picture of MLCAPE values over 2,000 j/kg with steep surface level lapse rates. The LLJ associated with the system does appear to split to our north, aiding to keep shear values on the lower end of things. With all of this in mind, the main question will be if the line that develops to our northwest will be able to maintain its strength as it approaches the area, or if it will become outflow dominant. The majority of CAMs do have the line losing strength as it approaches the area, with it continuing to weaken as it moves southeast / east. This would not be surprising as our instability begins to plummet in the evening. Greater clarity on the evolution of Tuesday will be coming as we get additional CAM guidance in range, but for now, there is generally low confidence in this potential event across the Mid-South and most of the stronger storms would be confined to locations generally along and west of the MS River.

By Wednesday, with the stalled frontal boundary to our south, expect for this wet weather pattern to continue with scattered to likely PoPs each day. High temperatures will back off a few degrees through midweek, but will likely begin to climb again into next weekend. There is not a strong signal for any additional severe weather currently, but this will be something to watch over the next few days with the overall pattern. In terms of rainfall amounts over the next several days, the majority of guidance does have the Mid-South in the 90th percentile for our PWAT values throughout this entire period. If the environment were able to capitalize on this over multiple days, this could certainly bring heavy rainfall for some locations and a flooding concern depending where the boundary ultimately sets up. Right now, 2 to 3" of rainfall between Tuesday and Saturday seems like the most likely solution, but LREF guidance does have a 30-40% chance of some locations reaching over 3". This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we get additional CAM guidance. For those wondering when we will break out of this weather pattern, it likely will not be until the weekend at the earliest. However, this pattern could very well last into early next week with no clear end in sight with the guidance currently.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Expect a near repeat of Sunday's aviation weather at Midsouth TAF sites, as deep south/southwesterly flow continues. Isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out at JBR around 21Z, but better focus for storms will be to the north, over SE MO and W KY. Marginal LLWS appears on tap for JBR this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.