textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 926 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Near-record warmth is forecast today, with highs in the mid 80s.

- A cold front will bring a 20-40% chance of wetting rainfall to the northern counties on Friday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures and an elevated fire danger on Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A mild night is underway across the Mid-South as steady southerly flow continues across the region and upper-level high pressure builds in from the west. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s or about 15 degrees above normal. 500 mb heights will rise to about 585 dam, and southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Confidence is high (around 80%) that winds will reach advisory criteria across NE AR and MO Bootheel. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Thursday for those areas. High temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s, which will threaten records across the Mid- South.

An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the Mid-South on Friday. The front is trending a bit slower, so temperatures will warm significantly south of I- 40 with some lower 80s across north MS. The front will reach the TN/MS border by early afternoon and exit north MS during the late afternoon. The front continues to lack upper support and moisture as it moves through the Mid-South. Areas along the KY/MO border have the best chance of wetting rain (>0.1 inches), but even those chances are only 20 to 40%. Areas south of I-40 will likely not see any rain.

The airmass behind the front will be much cooler. A 1037 mb surface high will settle over the OH Valley by Saturday morning with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and 40s across the Mid-South. There is a chance (30-50%) of temperatures cold enough (<37F) to produce frost across northern sections of the Mid- South, though a steady NE wind will probably preclude development. Highs on Saturday will be near normal.

The cooler weather will not last long as high pressure moves quickly east and southerly flow redevelops by Sunday, and upper ridging starts rebuilding into the area into early next week. As a result, temperatures will climb back above normal with widespread 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Persistent southerly flow will result in increasing moisture across the Mid-South and some instability during each afternoon. This will result in a very low (15-25%) chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms starting as early as Tuesday and continuing into midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Gusty winds up to 30 kts are anticipated today as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight, FL020 winds will increase to 45 kts along and north of I-40. As such, added a window of LLWS at MKL and JBR. Future TAF issuances may need to expand LLWS south to MEM, but the latest guidance keeps wind speeds below a mentionable threshold. As the front pushes through the area Friday, light showers will move across the Mid-South. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fire weather danger will remain low as higher moisture and minimum relative humidity values remain around 35-45%. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, but probabilities for wetting rain are only 20 to 40% and are confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. Low humidity and moderate northeast winds will lead to high confidence in elevated fire danger across the majority of the Mid-South on Saturday and Sunday. Significant moisture returns early next week as a warm front lifts across the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.