textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Cooler and calmer conditions across the Midsouth continue, with isolated to scattered storm chances in the afternoon into evening near the Tennessee River.

- The unsettled pattern continues through midweek, maintaining a localized threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- Temperatures will trend warmer by late week with decreasing precipitation chances and upper-level ridging strengthens, bringing the potential for heat-related headlines.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A weak area of upper troughing is currently in place over the Appalachians and southwest into MS/AL. Tropical air remains beneath this trough across the Mid-South with dewpoints over 70 F. Diurnal showers, and maybe a few thunderstorms, are possible through this evening as temperatures climb into the upper 80s. Limited instability and low DCAPE will keep the threat of damaging winds below severe limits, but locally heavy downpours are still possible within stronger cells.

The upper trough is forecast to retrograde west Tuesday. The motion of the trough will advect higher upper moisture which will bring PWATs above 2.00" through Wednesday. Diurnal heating will bring MLCAPE values back above 2000 J/kg with convection expected to develop throughout the afternoon. With the help of subtle decrease in upper heights underneath the upper trough, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to be more numerous. High storm coverage and average storm motions below 20 knots could lead to higher flash flooding potential, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of rain. The severe threat is limited thanks to saturated profiles keeping wet bulb profiles too warm for large DCAPE values. So, some gusty winds are possible in stronger storms, but damaging wind gusts are not expected. A similar forecast is expected Wednesday, but the coverage of storms is uncertain.

Through the latter half of the week guidance shows the trough gradually filling in and ridging building over the southeastern CONUS. High temperatures will then rise into the low to middle 90s throughout much of the Mid-South by Saturday. The resulting afternoon heat indices are then expected to eclipse 100 F as early as Friday with some areas, particularly throughout the Mississippi River Delta, reaching 105 F or higher through next weekend. NBM output supports this claim with 50th percentile afternoon heat indices ranging from 105 - 109 F across the River Delta. Afternoon showers and storms are still possible through next weekend as 1.75" - 2.00" PWATs are forecast to remain throughout the region, equating to diurnal maximums in instability. However, there is yet to be a signal for organized severe weather at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

An upper-level low remains positioned over Middle Tennessee this afternoon, resulting in isolated to scattered showers across parts of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. We have included a VCSH for TUP due to higher coverage and a PROB30 for showers at both TUP and MKL. While a stray shower could impact MEM, the probability remains near 10 percent. Overnight, an MVFR/IFR stratus deck is expected to move into MKL and TUP, reaching MEM by sunrise. By Wednesday afternoon, shower activity will increase significantly, bringing the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South throughout the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will generally remain above 40 percent, precluding any significant fire weather issues. Additionally, persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will ensure fuel moisture levels remain well-supported, mitigating wildfire risk. No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated through the upcoming week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.