textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Cool conditions and crisp mornings will persist through the weekend, with freeze probabilities ranging from 40 to 60 percent across northern portions of the Mid-South on Sunday. Early morning fog and frost is expected over the next couple of mornings.

- Near-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail through the middle of next week with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- A secondary cooldown will occur late week, bringing crisp mornings back into the forecast for the following weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A chilly Fall day is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 50s under mostly clear skies as a 1024mb high pressure continues to build over the Middle Mississippi Valley. With ample sunshine, highs this afternoon will top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s. As we head into the overnight hours, patchy fog and early morning frost is expected as winds go calm with ample radiational cooling, with best chances existing north of the Tennessee and Mississippi line. We'll also wake up to a crisp morning with latest NBM probabilities hinting 40-60% chance for freezing temperatures across the Missouri Bootheel, northern portions of northeast Arkansas, and much of West Tennessee. Though dense fog is not anticipated overnight, freezing fog cannot be ruled out, especially in the aforementioned areas. Either way, early morning commuters should be cautious on the roads. Fog will mix out by mid-morning as winds increase.

Benign weather is expected through early week as aforementioned high pressure remains fixed over the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate into midweek with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows generally in the 40s beginning Monday. Very weak upper-level troughing will push into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday potentially providing enough moisture for a few light showers Tuesday into Wednesday. If precipitation does make it to the ground, appreciable rainfall is not expected. A secondary, more notable and deepening, upper-level trough and attendant cold front will push in from the Midwest Thursday. Forecast PWATs begin to surge to around 1.3", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. This will be our best shot at precipitation over the next 7 days, though, due to uncertainty in the overall evolution of this trough, chances of precipitation are 25-40% Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures behind this front will plummet once again with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 50s to lower 60s as a much cooler, dry airmass builds in behind the front. Fall has arrived and is here to stay.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface high pressure will settle into the Midsouth overnight, centered over northeast AR. 12Z RRFS and HRRR indicate a potential for predawn fog/mist along and west of Crowley's Ridge near JBR. REFS ensemble spread around JBR was quite high however, ranging the gamut from VLIFR to VFR. No VIS concerns at MEM overnight, with sufficient pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing from the urban heat island to preclude fog formation.

Otherwise, clear skies and light NE winds will prevail through Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the region through the weekend. Cool and dry conditions will prevail. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20-ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of next week. Early morning fog is expected both Sunday and Monday in areas mainly north of the TN and MS stateline.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.