textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- More seasonable temperatures and lowered humidity have arrived throughout the Mid-South. Expect afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees with lower humidity levels.

- Increased rain chances return to the Mid-South Friday and will linger into Saturday with a potential heavy rainfall threat both days.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue behind a cold front late this weekend and are expected to last into early next week with temperatures in the 80s and low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Cooler weather is finally filtering its way into the region as an area of surface high pressure builds across the Midwest, pushing cooler air south. This pattern will continue through the next few days with persistent northerly winds keeping the cool air throughout the Mid-South. Temperatures are forecast to range between 85 F and 95 F along a northeast to southwest gradient with heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. Fortunately, heat index values across portions of the Mississippi River Delta are not forecast to rise above 105 F, eliminating the need for further heat headlines beyond tonight. A few stray showers are possible Thursday evening along the quasi-stationary boundary sitting across the area, but nothing noteworthy is expected from them.

Moving on to Friday, a lee surface wave will develop across the Central Plains and move east into the Middle Mississippi River Valley through the day. A cold front will eventually develop behind it that is forecast to reach the Mid-South Friday evening, swinging through the region overnight into Saturday. Models depict thunderstorms developing along the front as it moves into the region. However, the severe threat does not appear very high as mid-level lapse rates remain muted and antecedent cloud cover keeps SBCIN/MLCIN relatively high. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe wind gusts are possible given high PWATs and large DCAPE, but the coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be low enough to keep a larger severe and flooding threat at bay.

The front will make its way through the rest of the region Saturday. A minimum in convective coverage is likely in the morning hours, picking back up into the afternoon owing to diurnal heating. Once again, the severe threat appears limited within a regime consisting of weak shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, but high CAPE values above 3000 J/kg will still support locally heavy downpours and microbursts as the front clears the region.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures will be reinforced with highs on Sunday expected to remain in the 80s. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still possible Sunday and into early next week as residual troughing both aloft and at the surface will allow for weak diurnal instability (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg). It isn't until the middle of next week that the troughing begins to weaken and an upper ridge begins to take its place. Temperatures increase in response with highs returning to the 90s after multiple days with highs in the 80s. Humidity levels are expected to gradually increase as well, bringing afternoon heat indices back into the triple digits by Tuesday and Wednesday to end the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all sites. NE winds between 5-9 kts will veer ESE towards the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.