textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday, maintaining a localized threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

- The forecast for the upcoming weekend remains hard to pinpoint due to the potential for additional rainfall. Regardless, temperatures will warm a few degrees with highs in the low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

10 PM radar imagery depicts an area of slow moving showers and storms over portions of northeast Mississippi. The 00Z sounding out of Jackson, MS places precipitable water values around 2.2 inches which is near the 99th percentile for the middle of July. As such, efficient rainfall rates are occurring with radar estimates of 1.5 inches falling in the past hour. This area will continue to be monitored for isolated flooding issues over the next several hours as this activity continues southwest.

Increased moisture will funnel into the Mid-South on Tuesday as an upper level low retrogrades across Mississippi. This feature will produce subtle height falls in the afternoon allowing a broader area of showers and storms to develop. Given PWATs in excess of 2 inches and relatively slow storm motion, elevated flooding concerns will exist particularly in areas of northeast Mississippi near the Alabama border. Efficient rainfall rates may translate to rapid rises along creeks and streams, so use increased caution when traveling in the afternoon hours. A rinse and repeat pattern will be in place for Wednesday, though convective coverage is expected to be less.

The end of the week will be defined by a southeastward expansion of a 600 dam ridge currently situated over the northern Plains. By Friday, this feature will be much less pronounced as it continues to break down. A secondary area of ridging will develop along the western Gulf this weekend, allowing afternoon highs to increase both Saturday and Sunday. The latest NBM places highs in the low to mid 90s by Saturday. My confidence in this occurring is low at this time due to a 5 to 7 degree spread amongst ensemble members on both Saturday and Sunday. The main cause of this spread is likely due to a weak shortwave being resolved on both the GFS and ECMWF. This feature would keep rain chances in the forecast through the weekend, causing lower high temperatures. In addition, the latest iteration of the NBM has a known warm bias so my current thinking is that temperatures in the mid 90s are a bit too high. Regardless, temperatures will increase a degree or two this weekend but heat headlines are looking unlikely as heat indices remain below 105 degrees.

ANS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become enhanced during peak heating, approaching from the east riding over a weak trough over the Southeastern US. Convection will slowly dissipate after sunset. MVFR cigs are expected again tonight before sunrise at MEM and TUP. Cigs are less likely at MKL and VFR conditions are expected at JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as ample moisture and wetting rain chances persist.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.