textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and warm conditions will last through Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Unsettled weather will return early next week as a front stalls across the region with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Upper level troughing to the east and surface high pressure has allowed a chilly kickoff to this final Friday of February. The upper level trough will continue east today and allow surface high pressure to center over the Mid-South. This will allow for ample sunshine and light winds through the day today. Clear skies and light winds will prevail overnight also enhancing radiational cooling and fog development. Guidance is not hinting at a strong dense fog signal, compared to this morning, and will likely be patchy and locally dense. The most favorable location for dense fog development would be near Tupelo, MS and probabilities of dense fog are less than 20%.

Surface high pressure will gradually traverse east through Saturday. As the region gets to the backside of the high, WAA will allow for Saturday to heat up a couple degrees warmer than today for warm and dry conditions to continue. There is roughly a 40% chance or greater of temperatures greater than 75 degrees for areas south of Oxford, MS on Saturday.

A pattern shift will emerge on Sunday as zonal flow aloft returns. Several surface lows look to develop resulting in embedded shortwaves within this regime that will keep daily shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Sunday afternoon through the rest of the week. Southerly flow at the surface will also allow for warmer conditions resulting in a warm and wet pattern to emerge. The highest rain chances reside in northern portions of the region, but as of now, probabilities are low for exceeding 2" through this wet week. This could very easily shift depending on the track of the waves, which could cause rainfall totals to go up or down. Into next weekend, a deeper trough will end the series of shortwaves, but continue to keep the wetter pattern alive. There is still uncertainty about this deeper trough's arrival time and associated impacts, so in the meantime enjoy warm and dry weather through Saturday before the wet pattern arrives.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a low chance (<20%) of dense fog across mainly northeast Mississippi later tonight. Confidence is too low to mention in the TUP TAF. Expect light and variable winds through tonight, becoming light SSW by later morning on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Very dry air will continue to filter into the region with minimum RH values around 35%. If temperatures are able to rise further into the 70s, this will dip these values less than 30%. Soil conditions are more saturated across northern Mississippi as opposed to northwest Tennessee, which leaves a low to medium concern for fire danger across northern portions. 20ft winds will remain light enough prior to a wet pattern that emerges on Sunday with highest rain chances across the area of concern.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.