textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Mississippi River Delta today. Subsequent Heat Advisories will likely be warranted each day into next workweek.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will exist today, mainly north of I-40, and extending further east tomorrow. A Marginal Risk for Severe weather exists north of I-40 today with the primary risk of damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A calm and warm weather day is on display at this hour with current temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s with a thin cumulus shield building from the northwest. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a MCV is currently rotating over central Arkansas igniting a few pop-up thunderstorms over Little Rock. This MCV has given lift to a few pop-up thunderstorms over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Meanwhile, a secondary MCV is currently just west of Springfield, Missouri. As we head into the mid afternoon into early evening hours, CAMs are hinting at this secondary MCV translating southeast and making its way over to the Mid-South. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will continue to uptick through the afternoon hours and linger into the early morning hours tomorrow.

During peak heating this afternoon, a window will open up for a very conditional chance for severe weather. Digging into the parameter spacing, around 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE, around 20 kts of effective shear, DCAPE upwards of 900, mid-level lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km, and steepening low-level lapse rates of around 8.0 C/km. If the current, overall weak, cap breaks and thunderstorms are able to tap into enough instability for tall enough updrafts, the primary concern will be damaging winds through the late evening hours. Best chances will exist north of the I-40 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through the overnight hours, though severe weather chances look to cut off around midnight as shear and instability wanes.

As the main shortwave driving the aforementioned MCVs pushes east, another wave of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will exist tomorrow afternoon mainly along and south of I-40. Increased cloud cover and lingering rain chances will influence high temperatures and overall Heat Advisory potential tomorrow. NBM continues to hold on to 105+F heat indices in the Mississippi Delta region, however, HREF and LREF have <20% chance. Moving into early next week, heat will become the main weather story as a sub-tropical upper-level ridge, currently centered over the four corners region, begins to slowly nudge east. Cloud cover and rain chances will begin to push past the Mid-South by Sunday, likely warranting a Heat Advisory in at least the Delta Region. Heading into next workweek, ensembles are hinting at a secondary ridge beginning to broaden over the southeastern CONUS. Here in the Mid-South, highs will remain in the low to mid 90s with heat likely peaking on Wednesday. Heat Advisories across at least portions of our area will be warranted each day. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will also exist each day next workweek as PWATs remain around 1.8". By the latter half of next week, the overall upper- level pattern becomes unsettled as we move into more of a northwest flow regime and rain chances begin to increase once again.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated SHRAs and TSRAs may affect MEM and JBR this afternoon, though probability remains less than 30 percent. Confidence is lower for tonight due to continued run- to-run variability among short-term guidance (specifically the latest HREF/HRRR runs) regarding SHRA/TSAR initiation near MEM. We went with a blend of the ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS), keeping SHRAs near MEM through the overnight period. Winds will remain southerly through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable future as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 50%. Wetting rain chances will exist through tomorrow as a weak low pressure system translates east. South/southeast winds will also remain light through the fire weather period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010.

TN...None.