textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Bouts of isolated showers will continue through Saturday afternoon before a cold front sweeps across the region.

- Below freezing temperatures will return Monday and Tuesday mornings, with a warmup starting midweek.

- Rain chances (30 percent or more) will return by Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

WAA showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Mid-South as of 9PM due to a stalled warm frontal boundary across central Mississippi. Due to very dry air from last night's cold frontal passage, much of this precipitation is reaching the ground very lightly or in the form of sprinkles. We will see a bit of an uptick in coverage and amounts overnight as an approaching cold front will push this activity eastwards.

Rainfree conditions should return at the earliest by tomorrow afternoon, but at the latest after sundown. A cold front will sweep through resulting in cooler, Canadian air to sink south. Sunday's high temperature is forecasted to be roughly 10- 15 degrees below normal. Elevated northwest flow will enhance CAA as high pressure continues to sink and shift east. Monday and Tuesday morning will be very cold with high probabilities of temperatures less than 28F for the morning commute. While Monday morning will feel colder than what it is, due to strong NW flow, Tuesday looks to be a primal radiational cooling setup. Would not be surprised to see a few areas drop to the low teens Tuesday morning across northwest Tennessee.

Thankfully, this cold snap will be short lived due to return flow quickly settling in at the surface and advecting warmer air back to the region. This pattern shift will allow temperatures to climb back into the 50s and 60s, which will be 10+ degrees normal for the end of February. Model guidance is in good agreement for dry conditions from Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday and beyond uncertainty grows as an upper level low looks to traverse across the northern Plains into the Midwest. Depending on the trajectory of this low, the Mid-South could be susceptible to some rain showers as the warm front lifts north and as the cold front sinks south. The region will experience a brief reminder of winter early next week before meteorological spring is welcomed next weekend.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Scattered showers will continue across the region through about 10z before moving out of the area. Enough elevated instability is present to support a few thunderstorms in the TUP area. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR, with the exception of a period of MVFR at TUP Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to return Saturday evening. Light N/NE winds will increase to 10- 14 kts Saturday afternoon with a few higher gusts as a reinforcing cold front moves through the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A couple of disturbances will move through the region through Saturday morning. However, there is high confidence that wetting rain chances will remain confined to north Mississippi. Dry and cold air will filter into the region Sunday and Monday with minimum humidity levels returning to the 30 percent range each day. Humidity and temperatures increase in tandem midweek.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.