textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Below normal temperatures are forecast Friday through the weekend.

- An areawide freeze along with heavy frost will occur on Saturday morning with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Dry conditions are anticipated over the next 7 days, likely worsening the current drought.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends showed a deep upper-level trough in place across the eastern United States late this evening with an upper-level ridge over the Rockies. Late evening surface analysis placed a 1028 mb surface high centered near Hudson Bay. This surface high was bringing strong low-level cold air advection to the Mid-South with late evening winds remaining elevated thus far.

A deep upper trough and strong surface high will bring the coldest air of the season thus far to the Mid-South. Friday morning temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to middle 30s, with the lowest temperatures expected across portions of West Tennessee and north Mississippi. The coldest temperatures are expected to occur Friday night with lows expected to be at or below freezing areawide. NBM probabilities show a medium to high chance (50-70%) of temperatures at or below 28 degrees mostly across West Tennessee by Saturday morning. These cold morning temperatures are expected to persist into Sunday. Highs each day will recover into the 50s.

Thankfully, the latest long-term deterministic and ensemble model solutions show this upper-level trough lifting out of the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds from the Rockies into the Central U.S. next week. This will result in continued dry weather with a gradual moderation of temperatures and a potential for highs approaching 70 degrees in a few locations towards the end of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Winds have struggled to subside this evening across the region with some surface observations showing peak wind gusts of up to 30 knots. Current expectations are for a surface inversion to gradually limit the extent of wind speeds enough by 08z to remove overnight wind gusts from the TAFs. Regardless, gusty northerly winds will continue Friday afternoon and are more likely to abate tomorrow night. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with isolated Cu Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

20 ft winds will remain elevated through Friday as cool and dry air filters into the Mid-South. Despite a noticeable drop in dewpoints, minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 30 percent through the period. As such, fire weather concerns are not anticipated.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.