textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended across north Mississippi, much eastern Arkansas, and southwest Tennessee. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the rest of the Mid-South.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances exist along a weak frontal Monday. Temperatures will moderate slightly behind this front on Tuesday, but will still likely reach Heat Advisory criteria across at least portions of the Mid-South.

- More widespread relief from the dangerous heat is expected late this week, with temperatures returning to near normal.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The latest 500mb analysis indicates a broad 596 dam ridge centered over the ArkLaTex region with us here in the Mid-South situated along its northeastern quadrant. This is good news as over the past several days, this ridge has been centered over us with heights around 597-599 dam. However, dangerous heat will still be witnessed across the entire Mid-South tomorrow with areas mainly west of Jackson Tennessee and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line seeing heat indices 110+F. These areas remain under an Extreme Heat Warning through Monday with the rest of the Mid-South now under a Heat Advisory for heat indices 105+F. Please take heat safety precautions seriously as we are several days into this heatwave.

Overnight Monday, a weak cold frontal boundary, currently extending across the southern Ohio River Valley and into southeastern Missouri, will begin to dip down into our area. Ahead of it, moisture pooling is anticipated. CAMs continue to hint at isolated shower and thunderstorm development Monday afternoon as dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could have the potential to filter in. However, increased dewpoints may very well mix out by the mid afternoon hours, potentially cutting off overall shower and thunderstorm activity. Any areas that do see convective development will also see brief relief from oppressive heat Monday afternoon.

The persistent ridge will continue to retrograde allowing 500mb heights to gradually fall, heading into Tuesday as quasi-zonal flow begins to filter in aloft. Many areas, especially over northern Mississippi and in eastern Arkansas will likely continue to see heat indices 105+F Tuesday with continued influence from upper-level ridging. By Wednesday, as pretty strong return flow moves over the region, we could see yet another triple digit air temperature day with the entire Mid-South likely warranting heat headlines. Luckily, by Thursday, ensembles are hinting at lowered heights beginning to filter in from the Midwest as a secondary weak frontal boundary also begins to dip down. Confidence in temperatures trending closer to normal by Friday and into the weekend continues to increase. Though subsequent Heat Advisories may be warranted past Wednesday, oppressive heat is not expected. As far as rain chances go, a cold frontal boundary and weak troughing from the Midwest is expected to give lift to scattered shower and thunderstorm development both Thursday and Friday. If shower and thunderstorm chances pan out, we could be looking at a relatively nice weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions prevailing through the period. A weak cold front is expected to drop into the area overnight into Monday. The main effect from this frontal passage will be a wind shift from S/SW winds to NW at 8-10 kts on Monday, then becoming light by Monday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain too minimal to justify any PROB30 and VCSH mention in this TAF set.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Fire weather danger is expected to remain at a minimum as minimum relative humidity values teeter around 40-50% for the foreseeable future. Due to dry and warm soils, nighttime fog formation is not expected. Our next shot at wetting rain returns Thursday aided by a cold frontal passage.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 050>055-090>092.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ048-049-088- 089.