textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the Mid-South, mostly dry conditions will persist into next week.

- Temperatures will rise slowly through the weekend, reaching the mid to upper 90s by the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A relatively benign weather pattern is ongoing across the Mid- South with temperatures spanning the 80s. A frontal boundary is slowly progressing through the area, with ongoing cloudiness generally along and south of the I-40 corridor. As this frontal boundary continues to push south, some isolated showers and thunderstorms could fire into the afternoon hours. However, there does appear to be a decent amount of dry air aloft, which will likely inhibit most of this activity. Otherwise, high temperatures will remain just above-normal by the afternoon. Locations further north will be closer to normal in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s elsewhere. Into the overnight hours, clear skies coupled with light winds and generally low dew point depressions may allow some patchy fog to develop. While confidence is low, if this were to occur, locations close to the TN River have the best chance. Any fog that develops near sunrise will quickly mix out into Friday. Following the aforementioned frontal boundary, high temperatures on Friday will dip back down a few degrees closer to normal, with values in the upper 80s to low 90s. With the frontal boundary expected to be south of the area by this point, dry conditions will likely prevail across the entire area.

By Saturday, an upper-level ridge will continue to push across the Central Plains, eventually moving over the region into the first half of next week. With this building ridge and corresponding surface high developing across the southeast, expect for a dry and warm forecast to persist for the foreseeable future. For Saturday, high temperatures may still linger in the low to mid 90s. By Sunday, predominantly southerly flow will return, allowing for temperatures to climb further into the mid to upper 90s. Despite the southerly flow regime, dew point temperatures may remain somewhat manageable. There is currently a low probability (around 10 to 20%) of some locations across the Delta regions exceeding 105 degrees, thus needing heat headlines. This will be something to watch into the latter half of the forecast period. However, given the low confidence, generally plan to message the rising temperatures at this point.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A cold front will continue across the airspace this afternoon and evening, leaving behind northerly winds. Overnight, winds will become light and variable underneath mostly clear skies. This may translate to fog development near MKL and TUP, but any vsby reductions should resolve after sunrise Friday.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

There is a low chance for fog development overnight into Friday morning, mainly for locations east of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, a dry forecast is expected to persist into next week. Friday through the upcoming weekend, some afternoon minimum relative humidity values may fall below 40% across the Mid-South. Through this same timeframe, 20ft winds are expected to remain below 10 mph. With the ongoing dry conditions and low relative humidity levels, there could be a very low threat for some fire danger concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.