textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous into the weekend due to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- An Arctic air mass will bring frigid temperatures back to the forecast this weekend. Single digit and negative wind chills are anticipated Saturday morning.

- Temperatures will warm next week with rain chances increasing on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A weak shortwave continues to impact the Mid-South tonight, pushing an Arctic front through the region. There is a low (10 percent) chance of freezing precipitation through sunrise as the aforementioned front continues south. Short-term model soundings depict limited moisture availability within the DGZ, meaning any appreciable frozen precipitation is unlikely. In fact, the latest HRRR and RAP soundings resemble a typical freezing drizzle set-up. The best corridor for freezing drizzle will exist in northeast AR, but the window for any precipitation will be limited to a few hours. No impacts are anticipated.

The bigger weather story impacting CONUS this weekend will be the development of a Nor'easter. The genesis of this system will occur later today over MO. Frigid air will funnel into the Mid- South as this disturbance treks southeast through Saturday. The coldest apparent temperatures will occur Saturday morning as "feels-like" conditions drop below 0 nearly areawide. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory are in effect for Saturday morning. In addition to cold temperatures, gusty winds will accompany this system on Saturday. Guidance continues to depict an 8mb spread across the forecast area with gusts near 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds will subside by Sunday morning, but wind chills will remain in the single digits to low teens. One thing to note is that the latest guidance did come in a bit warmer for Sunday morning. If this trend continues, future forecast updates may include the removal of the Cold Weather Advisory for the northern portions of the Mid-South.

Luckily, the frigid Arctic air will not last long as a warming trend kicks off on Monday. Southerly surface winds will advect warm and moist air back into the Mid-South with highs in the 40s and 50s by Tuesday. Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave pushes across the southern Plains. Given warmer temperatures in place, any precipitation that does fall will be liquid. Showers will continue through Wednesday with areas in north MS forecast to receive up to 1 inch of rain through Thursday morning. The end of next week will be dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Midlevel clouds associated with a compact upper level disturbance will overspread the Midsouth overnight. MVFR CIGs may briefly develop at MEM prior to daybreak, down the back side of the associated surface low. Concurrent to this, Arctic air will begin to flow in, with low to medium chances of high MVFR CIGs through early afternoon.

A reinforcing Arctic cold front will pass through early Friday evening, with likely chances of high MVFR CIGs at all Midsouth TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A cold and dry air mass will overspread the Mid-South this weekend, leading to frigid temperatures through Sunday. MinRH will remain in the 40 to 50 percent range through early next week. 20ft winds may exceed 10 kts on Saturday, but fuel moisture remains plenty enough to preclude any fire weather threat.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ058.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>009-014.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.