textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Slightly cooler conditions will be in place on Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Additional rain chances return for Wednesday through Friday, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and location of showers and storms.

- The upcoming weekend will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the 90s by Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A few showers have developed near sunrise, mainly south of the I- 40 corridor. This trend will likely continue through the morning, with little impacts expected. Otherwise, a rather warm day is still on tap across the Mid-South with high temperatures surging into the low to mid 90s by the afternoon. After some internal collaboration, opted to issue a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern AR and into the MS delta mainly for this afternoon where heat index values could reach 105 or higher. While there are some lower probabilities further east, any early convection or convection this afternoon could play spoiler so did not include those additional counties. As for our severe weather threat for today, the Slight Risk (2/5) area was expanded further into the Mid-South, covering generally our northern two rows of counties and the Marginal Risk (1/5) was extended to the TN/MS state line. While confidence is generally still low with respect to timing, if the threat materializes, damaging wind gusts remain the main concern. Overnight guidance still remains a bit spread on timing, but the most favorable solution at this point would be the potential for two rounds: one this afternoon into the evening and another overnight into Sunday morning. If the afternoon/evening threat materializes, the overnight round would likely be not as impactful. However, if the earlier threat does not materialize this could open the door for a more potent overnight round. Anything that develops today will be seen ahead of time to our northwest, so this will be something to watch through the rest of the day.

CMA

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Dry conditions are anticipated Tuesday as the Mid-South sits underneath northwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. By Wednesday, southerly surface winds will transport hot and humid air back into the Mid-South. This, combined with an upper level disturbance, will increase our rain chances by the afternoon hours. Guidance suggests an MCS developing near Oklahoma / Arkansas Wednesday. We have low confidence in its evolution and southern extent, though a glancing blow of damaging winds is possible for east-central Arkansas. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Wednesday remains warranted.

Rain chances will linger through Thursday and Friday as multiple upper level disturbances trek across the region. Anomalously high precipitable water values will create efficient rainfall rates each day, leading to a growing localized flooding threat. As for severe weather, joint probabilities for overlapping ingredients remain less than 15 percent. Instead, expect typical summertime convection with gusty winds and small hail.

Heat and humidity will build into the Mid-South this weekend as upper level ridging moves into the region. Long range guidance has a 597 dam ridge parked over central Kentucky by early next week with high temperatures soaring into the mid 90s. Should these trends hold, a return to heat products looks increasingly likely.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24-30 hours as a weak ridge builds across the Mid-South. Low stratus and reduced visibility are possible late tonight at TUP and MKL due to abundant low-level moisture and light winds, though confidence remains too low for prevailing ceilings. Northwest winds will shift northeast tomorrow, remaining light at 7 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, along with MinRH values over 40%, will negate fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.