textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next 7 days, capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show a cutoff upper-level low over the Southern Plains with a northern stream trough extending along the Mississippi Valley. Afternoon and evening rain showers have ended across the area with the loss of daytime instability. Mostly cloudy skies prevail across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures in the lower 70s at most locations.

A moist atmosphere, combined with temperatures nearing saturation and nearly calm winds, supports at least medium confidence (40- 60% chance) for patchy fog to areas of fog development overnight, especially east of the Mississippi River. A cutoff upper-level low over the Southern Plains will gradually drift east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. This will bring a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the Mid-South. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) indicate the best coverage will occur during peak heating each day. With overall shear remaining weak (less than 15 kts) and precipitable water values rising to around 1.9 inches (95th percentile for late May), localized rainfall will be the predominant threat with any stronger storms.

Long range ensemble and deterministic model trends show a northern stream upper-level trough eventually spreading into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys towards late week into next weekend. This will bring a continuation of rain chances to the Mid-South through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tricky TAF set remains in this issuance as a few low pressure systems rotate in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. IFR and pockets of LIFR conditions will soon begin to take precedence across the airspace. Fog is also expected across all TAF sites with reduced visibility along narrow dewpoint depressions and saturated soils. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise as ceilings also begin to rise to MVFR and eventually VFR, west to east. Isolated to scattered -SHRA is expected across JBR/MEM/MKL in the afternoon, warranting PROB30s. Prevailing -SHRA is expected at TUP as the aforementioned upper-low rotates over NE MS. Fog is expected again overnight Tuesday.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the work week as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.