textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Warm and increasingly humid conditions return tonight through the weekend, with isolated showers or storms on Saturday.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- An unsettled pattern starts late Monday, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the workweek.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The latest surface analysis places a broad 1020mb high over Appalachia with a 1002mb low over eastern Nebraska and a mature 985mb low over Ontario, Canada. A warm front extends southeast from the low in Nebraska into eastern Arkansas and down to New Orleans. This warm front will continue to lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley through this evening as the parent low slowly advances into the Great Lakes Region. Aloft, broad split or zonal flow covers the majority of the CONUS, except for the Four Corners Region where a shortwave is noted. Downstream of this wave, several small perturbations are prevalent across the Central to Southern Plains.

Significant warm air and moisture advection will modify our air mass by this evening. This will increase humidity overnight and result in mild low temperatures in the mid-60s to lower 70s. As upper-level perturbations translate east into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning, NBM guidance continues to come in dry (<5 PoPs). However, both LREF and HREF guidance resolves decreasing upper-level heights across the region, increasing instability, and deepening layer shear. This should support at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. We have introduced isolated to stray PoPs (~15%) for areas along and north of I-40, where these weak waves will interact with an increasingly unstable air mass from early Saturday morning through the late afternoon.

Sunday will be dry and hot across the Mid-South as upper-level ridging builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley, downstream of a deepening trough over the Intermountain West. A Colorado Low will develop Sunday and lift northeast across the Northern Plains. The aforementioned trough will deepen further on Monday as it takes on a positive tilt over the Four Corners Region. Upper-level southwest flow will strengthen over the Lower Mississippi Valley and 500mb heights will climb to the 99th percentile relative to climatology. This will translate to hot and humid conditions over the region, and many locations approaching their first 90F of the year Monday afternoon.

The weather pattern will become unsettled late Monday night through Thursday as a slow-moving cold front advances across the Lower Mississippi Valley. LREF guidance is struggling with this front and the upper-level pattern, in contrast to the consistent GFS and ECMWF guidance. Both of those models are quite consistent with resolving a phasing southern jet stream wave moving into the region on Tuesday, which will help push the front all the way through the region by late Wednesday night. This solution could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly Tuesday into Wednesday, as SBCAPE swells to 2000 J/kg and a cold front moves into the region. The limiting factor continues to be weak bulk shear, generally around 20 knots. Nonetheless, there remains at least a low chance of a few strong storms during this timeframe. The long term forecast favors above normal temperatures and precipitation as we remain locked into a warm and humid air mass.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the current TAF period. Gusty, S/SW winds will linger overnight for MEM and JBR, with occasional gusts upwards of around 20 kts. Wind speeds will pick back up at MKL around 15Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next week as we move into a warm and humid air mass. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns Tuesday and continues through late next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.