textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- A warming trend will begin this weekend with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by the beginning of next week.

- Drier conditions will also be witnessed with much of the Mid-South likely not seeing any precipitation over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A calm night is being witnessed across the Mid-South with a few pockets of cirrus trailing behind today's cold front. As clouds continue to dissipate behind the front and winds go calm along narrow dewpoint depressions, there exists another pretty decent signal for patchy fog development. Best fog chances will exist in low-lying areas of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. Any fog that does develop will quickly mix out shortly after sunrise. The aforementioned front will also result in a "cooldown" Friday with highs spanning the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry conditions and lowered dewpoints will also be present as dry air continues to filter in aloft from the Midwest.

Saturday, upper-level subtropical ridging, currently centered just south of the four corners region, will begin to broaden east. A warming trend will begin with all of the Mid-South seeing highs in the 90s this weekend. With dry air in place from the Midwest, our area will see little to no precipitation over the next seven days. Come Monday, ensembles continue to hint at the aforementioned ridge nearly centering over us at a forecasted 594dam. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s beginning Sunday and extending through at least mid-week. The good news is that dewpoints don't look to surge with forecast values in the upper 60s to low 70s next week. This will likely keep us away from oppressive heat. Though some areas, especially in the Delta Region, may necessitate Heat Advisories as early as Monday with heat indices potentially reaching 105+F. The latest LREF guidance indicates 20-30% chance of hitting indices 105+F in these areas, though this will primarily be driven and depend on dewpoints. A relief from heat does not look likely anytime soon as the latest 8-14 day outlook indicates a 70-80% chance of the Mid-South being above normal through the first week of September.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Patchy fog will be possible at TUP and MKL toward sunrise, but should quickly dissipate as dry air above the surface mixes down after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will prevail over the next 30 hours.

The TUP TAF retains AMD NOT SKED during ATCT non-staffed hours, due to ASOS-ADAS comms outage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

There exists a low chance for patchy fog development overnight Friday, greatest potential in low-lying areas. Into the upcoming weekend, minimum relative humidity values may fall below 35% in some areas as dry air continues to filter in. 20 ft winds will remain light through this same period. A potential elongated dry period with no appreciable rainfall ahead could lead to marginal fire concerns heading into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.