textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Temperatures will trend cooler Thursday through the weekend.

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur this afternoon along a cold front over northwest Tennessee. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected this weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday and Sunday mornings.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Current satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover over north Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee with mainly clear skies over the remainder of Tennessee, east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Temperatures are in the 70s across the area, but cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow.

A 1004 mb surface low is approaching western Ohio with an attendant cold front stretches south and west across the Missouri Bootheel into east Arkansas. Ahead of the front, weak WAA is producing scattered showers over north Mississippi. No lightning has been observed so far today, but a few strikes are possible as instability associated with daytime heating increases. There is a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon near the Tennessee River. Clear skies in this area will allow for maximum instability, but given dew points in the low to middle 50s CAPE should remain below350 J/kg. 40-50kt of shear will shift into northwest Tennessee later this evening, but likely too late to coincide with the thermodynamic instability. Nevertheless, there is a chance for a strong to severe storm this evening as storms move into Middle Tennessee. North winds will arrive in the Midsouth tonight resulting in cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

A narrow but strong ridge will build over the Rockies and shift over the Plains tomorrow into Friday. Strong northwest flow will set up along the Mississippi River Valley. A reinforcing cold front will move across the Mid-South Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures behind this front will be the coldest so far this year, featuring lows in the middle 20s to middle 30s Saturday and Sunday. Weekend high temperatures will be mostly in the 50s, but portions of northwest Tennessee may struggle to climb out of the 40s Saturday afternoon.

Model guidance is in very poor agreement after the weekend. The general upper level pattern will consist of a broad ridge across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. The ECMWF features a cutoff low over east Texas, early Monday, shifting across Mississippi and Alabama before midweek. The GFS has a weaker low over Ohio, sinking south across West Virginia. The former solution would result in a comparatively wetter and cooler pattern across the Mid-South, but not as cold as the weekend. The NBM is a reasonable compromise between the other two solutions. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer with only a slight chance of rainfall. By Tuesday, high temperatures in northeast Mississippi may rebound back into the low 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Ongoing showers at TUP will cease by 19Z. The latest guidance paints less than a 30 percent probability of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the period. As such, kept the remainder of the forecast dry. The main aviation concern overnight will be an eventual wind shift as a cold front moves across the airspace. Ahead of the boundary, winds may gust up to 20 kts. By sunrise Thursday, northerly winds under 10 kts will be in place.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Minimum relative humidity will moderate in advance of a strong cold frontal passage this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the cold front near the Tennessee River resulting in a low chance of wetting rain.

Much cooler air will settle into the Mid-South tomorrow through the weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.