textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Cool conditions and crisp mornings will persist through much of the week, with freeze probabilities ranging from 40-60% across northern portions of the Mid-South on Sunday.

- Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Radiational cooling conditions have been disrupted across much of the Mid-South due to a pesky post-frontal stratus deck. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a large, very dry area right along the Tennessee/Mississippi state line where this cloud deck is slowly being eroded. Areas across southwest Arkansas and north Mississippi will likely trend cooler than its northern neighbors due to the cloud coverage.

It will be quite a few unseasonably cool days and even cooler mornings through much of the forecast period. While cloud coverage will likely disrupt the first freeze across West Tennessee, Sunday's probabilities remain between 40-60% for our northern zones and 25% or less for southern.

High pressure will dominate through most of the forecast period leaving dry and cool conditions in for at least the first half of the week. Projected highs are generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but given a dry air mass and known NBM biases, temperatures may trend upwards into the low to mid 70s. Long range guidance struggles with the evolution of a trough over Baja California and projected shortwaves to cross the Mid-South. Current probabilities from the NBM for receiving a trace of rain are negligible until Wednesday and Thursday. Enjoy the fall weather!

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

GOES Satellite imagery has shown an approaching 3-4kft cloud deck dissipating during the evening as it moves south towards TAF sites with a substantial column of dry air present across the area. Nonetheless, there is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds overnight will be generally 6 kts or less and average between 5-9 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure will build across the area this weekend. Cool and dry conditions will prevail. A few areas may experience minimum relative humidity below 40 percent through Monday, but light 20- ft winds and wet fuels will curb fire weather concerns. No appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days, which may increase fire danger by the end of this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.