textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- An areawide freeze is forecast Saturday morning, with lows spanning the upper 20s to lower 30s. Another freeze is forecast for Sunday, mainly east of Interstate 55. Some rural locations in West Tennessee could see lows in the mid 20s on Sunday.

- A warming trend is forecast for next week, with high temperatures warming to the lower 70s next Friday and Saturday.

- Dry conditions are expected through next week, likely worsening the current drought.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

As of Saturday evening, we are entering the coldest 2 day period of the forecast, as the influx of continental polar air continues under northwest flow aloft. The pattern will begin to deamplify by Sunday as a longwave upper level trough over the eastern CONUS begins to lift offshore. During this period, a surface pressure ridge will settle into the TN River Valley Saturday night, setting up another favorable radiational cooling night. Latest NBM deterministic lows are around the 25th percentile of the guidance envelope for this weekend's lows temps, which appears reasonable.

By Sunday afternoon, weak ridging aloft will translate east from the Great Plains to Middle MS River Valley. Global model consensus depicts a weakening cut-off low moving from the Red River Valley to the central Gulf coast Sunday night into early Monday. This feature's impacts for the Midsouth will be limited to increased midlevel cloud cover on Sunday.

An upstream upper ridge will amplify from TX into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, in advance of a progressive longwave trough moving into the Great Basin. 500mb heights will peak around 585dam over the Midsouth on Wednesday, roughly 16dam above normal for mid/late November. By this time, daytime highs will warm into the mid/upper 60s. Thursday morning appears to be our first opportunity for above freezing low temperatures across the Midsouth, including areas near the Tennessee River.

The western U.S. trough will lift into the central and northern plains by next weekend, effectively flattening but not displacing the upper level ridge over the Lower MS River Valley and the Southeast. As such, the mild temps will continue across the Midsouth, as rain chances remain limited.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR. Light north winds gradually veering to east/northeast by mid- morning Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dry and cool polar air will remain over the Midsouth this weekend. This air will begin to warm as we move from Sunday through late next week. Areas of northern Mississippi and West Tennessee will likely experience minimum relative humidity below 35 percent as early as Sunday and Monday, and below 30 percent in the mid to late portion of next week. The chances for wetting rainfall will remain near zero over the next seven days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.