textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist through at least Saturday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances may begin to return early next week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Wednesday was a tale of two areas across the Mid-South, with those socked in with cloud coverage barely reaching into the 70s whereas other locations under sunny skies reached the mid to upper 80s. Cloud coverage has remained across generally the northern half of the area into the overnight hours, however, latest satellite trends do show some breaks in this coverage. The main question for the remainder of the overnight hours into Thursday will be if some of the cloud coverage to our northeast will be able to filter back into the Mid-South. If this does happen, high temperatures will likely be below normal for much of the area in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, if this cloud coverage does not rebuild through the region, temperatures would be closer to normal in the mid 80s.

By Friday, an upper-level ridge will move over the region, allowing temperatures to slowly return to above-normal. High temperatures are forecast to be generally in the mid 80s across the Mid-South through the weekend and into early next week. The aforementioned ridge will begin to break down by Sunday, allowing for a few week disturbances to pass through. While confidence is low, these disturbances will allow for some isolated shower and thunderstorm chances to return Sunday into the early portion of next week. Unfortunately, this will still likely not bring widespread, meaningful precipitation to most of the area.

Into the middle of next week and the end of the current forecast period, things do become quite uncertain. While guidance does agree that an upper-level trough and corresponding low pressure system will move off the Rocky Mountains, the timing and strength of this system is highly variable. In addition, guidance is struggling to resolve the interaction of this system with Hurricane Polo in the Pacific Ocean, which could play a role in how this trough axis progresses. Ensemble guidance is quite spread Wednesday through the end of next week. ENS guidance favors a sharper cool down that remains postfrontal, while GEFS guidance has a more shallow cool down with temperatures quickly rebounding after. It does appear that we will get our first shot of some meaningful precipitation, but the timing is still complex. Additional confidence will hopefully be gained in future forecasts as more guidance comes in.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A pesky MVFR deck is expected to infiltrate south through the overnight hours eventually impacting all terminals. VFR conditions are anticipated by the mid afternoon hours, however, some guidance does want to keep MVFR conditions across terminals longer. Northeast winds are expected to remain elevated overnight, keeping fog away from terminals. Light winds are expected Thursday.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 40% across the area through Saturday, with some locations falling just below 40% into next week. The next chance of meaningful rainfall likely will not arrive until at least the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.