textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected daily through this upcoming weekend, capable of heavy downpours.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

- A cold front will alleviate the region from muggy conditions by the middle of next week, leading to pleasant afternoon weather as early as Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A very humid air mass, containing 70+ F dewpoints, continues to persist across the Mid-South. At this time, a weak stationary boundary has been analyzed across the Missouri Bootheel southwest into central Arkansas with a weak surface low over southern Illinois. Aloft, we continue to remain between troughing over the Rockies and southern Plains and a ridge across the Atlantic coast. Overnight stratus has burned off with insolation beginning to produce a widespread Cu field over the southern CONUS, which is already transitioning into scattered showers. Therefore, scattered thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon within an environment containing 1000+ MLCAPE and PWATs above 1.75", capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Shower coverage should diminish after sunset as instability wanes. Patchy fog is expected tonight as high moisture continues with a low (< 30%) chance for widespread dense fog across northeastern Mississippi.

A trough axis, currently analyzed from the upper Texas panhandle to the Texas/Louisiana border, will gradually propagate eastward through the next 48 hours. At the same time, portions of the stationary boundary across the Ohio River Valley will sag further south towards Middle and West Tennessee, causing the stationary boundary to take a more southeast to northwest orientation in a line from Jonesboro, AR through Savannah, TN. The troughing from the west will provide moisture advection from the south that will then produce a corridor of more concentrated lift and, therefore, precipitation coverage Thursday and Friday. Models differ on the magnitude of precipitation, but scattered convection centered on the front is expected. If storms begin to train, they could lead to a low-end flash flooding risk within an environment consisting of 1.75" - 2.00" PWATs.

This pattern will continue into the weekend, although the boundary will become more diffuse owing to multiple days' worth of precipitation weakening the temperature gradient. Additionally, an omega-block will develop over the northern CONUS and into central Canada. However, the blocking pattern is not expected to remove the residual troughing aloft, leading to daily shower and thunderstorm chances to continue. So, expect scattered, single cell convection capable of heavy downpours and gusty winds Saturday and Sunday.

By Monday, the eastern troughing in the blocking pattern will break out and dive south into the eastern CONUS, followed by a cold front. Precipitation chances crater Monday, only reaching above 30% across portions of West Tennessee and northern Mississippi as moisture gets pushed south. Both the ECWMF and GFS have the front south of the region Tuesday, along with meaningful precipitation chances. Highs are not expected to cool down by an impressive margin, remaining in the low 80s for the majority of the Mid-South, but moisture will decrease with dewpoints in the low 60s and mid 50s leading to pleasant daytime weather through the end of the forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Convective coverage has diminished in the past couple of hours. However, regional radar trends indicate additional convection over central and southeast AR. This activity has a low chance (20- 30%) for showers and an embedded TS affecting JBR and the western edge of MEM this evening. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail outside of any convective activity. A medium chance (>40%) exists for MVFR ceilings to develop at sites near or after sunrise Thursday, with IFR ceilings expected for a period at TUP. Additional diurnal convection is expected during peak heating on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

No fire danger concerns are expected through at least this upcoming weekend. There is a 30% chance for dense fog over portions of northeastern Mississippi tonight and into Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into early next week as a wet and unsettled pattern persists across the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.