textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Severe storms will continue through 4AM Wednesday. Damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes are the primary concerns.

- Additional rain chances manifest on Friday, but the upcoming weekend will be splendid as highs remain in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

11PM radar imagery depicts a messy convective mode over the Mid- South, consisting of bowing line segments. The latest mesoanalysis places around 1500 J/kg of instability over the area, along with bulk shear of 50 kts and 0-1 km SRH around 250 m2/s2. Given the environment, storms should maintain strength as they exit into middle TN and Alabama. Damaging winds are the primary concern, along with a secondary threat of spin-up tornadoes within any breaks the main line of storms. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 4AM Wednesday for portions of west TN, east-central Arkansas, and north Mississippi. In addition to severe weather, flooding is becoming an increasing threat with radar estimating 6"/hr rainfall rates. Several flash flood warnings and flood advisories are in effect. Additional flood products are likely as storms continue southeast. We've received several reports of flooding, most notably a shutdown of Hwy 51 in DeSoto County due to water over the roadway. Flooding remains a leading cause of weather related fatalities in the United States, so avoid crossing flooded roadways and heed warnings.

Dry conditions will be in place by sunrise as the parent shortwave and attendant cold front clear the Mid-South. Behind this boundary, slightly cooler temperatures will be in place with afternoon highs in the 70s. On Thursday, a large upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes Region. This system will keep northerly winds over the Mid-South, allowing below normal temperatures through Thursday. Afternoon highs each day will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Additional rain chances manifest on Friday as a shortwave moves over Texas. Up to a half inch of rainfall is anticipated for areas along and south of I-40. Forecast soundings do depict a layer of dry air aloft on Friday, so rainfall totals may end up being lower if precipitation struggles to overcome this feature. Regardless, light showers will likely impact areas of the Mid-South by midday. No severe weather is anticipated. The upcoming weekend will be dry and cool with daily highs in the 60s and 70s. Long range guidance depicts a warming trend next week with additional rain chances by Wednesday.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to impact TUP through around 09Z. Degrading CIGs will overspread the airspace tonight, dropping to IFR by sunrise Wednesday. Guidance keeps lower ceilings through the majority of the day with gradual improvement in the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will become northerly as a frontal boundary clears the Mid-South. Gusty winds up to 20 kts are anticipated at JBR, but elsewhere will remain less than 15 kts.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period due to recent wetting rains. MinRH will fall to around 40 percent range on Thursday, but light 20ft winds will keep fire concerns at bay.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.