textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of northern Mississippi Monday morning for dangerously cold wind chills.

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season through Monday morning, with wind chills dropping into the teens and single digits Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday. Rain chances increase by the middle of next week as the pattern continues to warm.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

An Arctic cold front has now passed completely through the region as of this morning with low temperatures in the low to upper teens as far south as the TN/MS border. Wind chills continue to hover in the single digits that are expected to gradually climb into the teens later today as temperatures increase across the area. Temperatures will not rise above freezing today and blustery winds will continue into this evening. Temperatures will plummet once again tonight as a 1030+ mb high moves across the Mid-South with lows in the low to upper teens across the entire area. Wind chills will be low enough across portions of north MS to require another Cold Weather Advisory tonight until 9 a.m CDT Monday before temperatures finally climb above freezing Monday afternoon area-wide. Areas outside of the Cold Weather Advisory Monday will still be incredibly cold tomorrow morning with optimal radiational cooling conditions expected to bring single digit lows (7-15 F).

A quick warm up will commence after Monday as high pressure moves to our east and southerlies are able to bring warmer air north. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range between 45 F and 55 F, warming further Wednesday into the 50s and 60s. The presence of ridging aloft will keep precipitation chances low (< 20%) through Wednesday morning, but increase (30% - 40%) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday ahead of a new system.

By Thursday, models (GEFS/GFS/ECMWF) all bring a new trough into the central Plains. Amplification of the trough will take place through Thursday with some differences in the magnitude of amplification. However, confidence is high regarding the development of a strong lee cyclone that will move east, across the plains, and into the Midwest. A cold front will trail this system, and will eventually reach the Mid-South sometime Thursday afternoon with strong warm advection ahead of it. Dewpoints will increase in response across the entire region with NBM/LREF both depicting 60 F dewpoints as far north as the TN/MS border. This raises confidence in the development of thunderstorms, especially given NBM/LREF also bring 300-500 J/kg SBCAPE along and ahead of the cold front with ample deep layer shear. However, there are still several limiting factors, the most notable being poor mid- level thermodynamics as lapse rates struggle to get above 7 C/km. If the upper system were to track further south, stronger, more southerly, warm advection and cooler air aloft could allow for higher CAPE, but model confidence is high that the main lobe of upper vorticity/cold will remain across the Mid-West. Therefore, a marginal severe threat is possible Thursday, as noted within today's Day 4-8 SPC discussion along the cold front. Regardless, thunderstorms are still possible that are expected to bring heavy rains and some thunder through Thursday evening.

The front will pass through the region by Friday morning, clearing the Mid-South of precipitation. The air mass behind the front will be less Arctic than that of the one we are currently dealing with. So, temperatures will only fall into the upper 20s and low 30s Friday morning, warming into the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon. The upper pattern is still expected to flatten out and become zonal with low-amplitude ridging over the central CONUS. Therefore, mild and relatively dry conditions are forecast through the end of the period and into the following work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the entire period. There is high confidence that gusty north winds will diminish this evening as surface high pressure becomes centered over the region. High pressure will slide east Monday morning with light south winds developing at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Humidity continues to stay between 25-30% on Monday as the dry airmass remains firmly in place. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise by midweek as another cold front brings a 50-70% chance of wetting rains.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...None.