textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday, with unsettled conditions persisting through Tuesday.

- Significant heat and humidity will build across the Mid-South by mid-week.

- Daily high temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s; heat index values are likely to climb above 100F by mid-week, necessitating attention to heat safety.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The latest GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery shows an expansive upper low over the TX/OK Panhandles with several areas of convection firing on the SE flank. Clouds and showers will begin to impact the Mid-South over the next 3 to 6 hours as the upper low evolves into an open wave and ejects into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread Monday morning through Monday evening as appreciable height falls overspread the area. HREF joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg, Bulk Shear >= 30 knots, and CIN > -25 J/kg are pinging in the 30 to 50% range for areas generally west of the Mississippi. Thus, a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out, with hazards mainly being gusty winds and hail. Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist from late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the main trough axis swings through.

Unsettled weather will continue on Monday as weak northwest flow remains over the area. A couple of hi-res models suggest a morning MCS may traverse the Mid-South through Monday afternoon. If this solution comes to fruition, there is a higher probability of a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions will ramp up on Tuesday, as a 591dam ridge builds into the Mid-South from the SW. The ridge will remain nearly stationary through late week as a PAC NW trough deepens. We will get our first taste of summertime heat and humidity, as air temperatures soar into the low to mid-90s each day and dewpoints peak in the low to mid-70s. Heat index values will climb to advisory levels as early as Tuesday and continue through late week. There could be some weaknesses in the ridge late in the week, but they will not be enough to disrupt the oppressive heat and humidity.

Medium-range operational models suggest that a cold front will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the week, increasing showers and thunderstorms across the area. There is a low to medium chance that the front stalls, keeping unsettled weather over the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

As an upper-level low pivots over the southern Plains, moisture will continue to build over the Mid-South. Current VFR conditions will begin to lower to MVFR with pockets of IFR over the next few hours, moving in south to north. Showers will begin to impact terminals as we edge closer to sunrise. Confidence in exact timing of overall convection remains on the lower end, therefore, opted to keep PROB30s for SHRA, transitioning to TSRA in the afternoon hours. MVFR cigs are expected to lift to VFR in the afternoon, however, with persistent showers and thunderstorms, MVFR cigs could stick around through the TAF period. South/southeast winds will remain largely 10 kts or less over the next 30 hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Widespread wetting rain is expected across much of the area on Sunday and Monday, further mitigating fire risk. Even as high heat returns mid-week, elevated humidity levels will prevent significant fire weather concerns.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.