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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Patchy freezing fog is expected this morning. Driving conditions will remain hazardous due to freezing fog and black ice.

- Daytime temperatures will warm above freezing again over most of the Midsouth on Today. Temperatures over north Mississippi will warm into the mid and upper 40s.

- An Arctic cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Thursday night. A few snow flurries and patchy freezing drizzle may occur in the predawn hours Friday. Otherwise, the temperatures will plummet, with single digit below zero wind chills expected over a good portion of the Midsouth Saturday and Sunday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Updated to adjust the zone forecast wording to freezing fog instead of fog due to sub freezing temperatures this morning. Also removed the freezing rain wording to rain or snow on day 7 as confidence is too low to justify freezing rain midweek.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Primary concern is the return of bitter cold Arctic air this weekend, following the passage of an Arctic cold front early Friday morning. The frontal passage will coincide with the passage of a lead shortwave, dropping south in advance of rapidly deepening longwave trough. This longwave trough will drop through the mid-MS RIver Valley Friday night.

The lead shortwave may bring isolated light snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle early Friday morning. The lack of dendritic zone (-12 to -18C) moisture will limit snow coverage and accumulating potential. But the lack of feeder-seeder ice crystals from above will also allow supercooled water droplets below 800mb to present a low end freezing drizzle chance. No measurable icing is expected at this time, given the relatively low column RH and progressive nature of the shortwave.

Temperatures will plunge Friday night, as the deepening upper trough axis rotates through the Midsouth. This trough will be quite dynamic, ingesting stratospheric potential vorticity and dropping the tropopause to 600mb in the base of the trough. Despite limited moisture, scattered light snow showers or flurries may occur Friday night. The trough will continue to deepen through Saturday night when it exits into the Atlantic, off the Carolina coast.

A Cold Weather Watch will be issued for southern portions of the forecast area for Friday night. This will cover areas where subzero wind chills are expected, and will roughly extend from Helena through Oxford and Tupelo. Further north, subzero wind chills are likewise Friday night, but there are low probabilities of reaching the more stringent criteria -5 and -10.

There are two good pieces of news with this Arctic event: We expect little to no wintry precipitation, and it will be fairly quick as Arctic plunges go. By Sunday evening, we will already be on the back side of the Arctic pressure ridge with southerly winds.

An upstream ridge over TX will deamplify and lift across the Midsouth Monday into Tuesday. Medium range guidance consensus begins to weaken toward midweek with the phasing of northern and southern branch lows over the plains. With that said, precip chances appear on or about Tuesday, when a frontal passage appears most likely to occur. Mild temperatures aside, there is too much spread in the models to rule out wintry precip, given uncertainty of the upper pattern and strength of the cold front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Freezing fog chances will increase overnight as crossover temperatures are met. Visibility reductions to 1/2 mile are anticipated at all terminals except for TUP. Freezing fog will slowly dissipate after sunrise, allowing VFR CIGs and light southerly winds to prevail.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Moderate daytime humidity will prevail prior to the passage of a strong Arctic cold front early Friday morning. Bitter cold conditions will continue through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ARZ058.

MO...None. MS...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...None.