textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Dry conditions are expected through at least Tuesday, with high temperatures in the middle 90s to approaching 100 degrees.

- Dangerous and oppressive heat is expected this week with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees into Tuesday. Some locations may reach or exceed 110 degrees later this week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

12Z upper air analysis featured a 594 dm ridge centered near the Gulf Coast with the ridge extending up into the Lower Mississippi Valley. GOES visible satellite trends showed some diurnal cumulus occurring across much of the Mid-South. A very warm and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures in the middle 80s to approaching 90 degrees with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s.

The aforementioned center of the upper-level ridge is expected to shift towards the Mid-South Monday and over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into midweek. 925 mb temperatures are expected to warm to 27-29C with afternoon highs in the middle 90s to approaching 100 degrees this week. These very hot temperatures combined with high surface dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat index values rising to between 105 to 109 degrees. The Heat Advisory was expanded to include the entire forecast area for Monday and Tuesday. The start of the existing Excessive Heat Watch was pushed back to Wednesday with lingering questions remaining about the NBM temperatures and dewpoints trending a little too high.

LREF ensemble members indicate some tropical moisture may creep into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the latter half of the week as the upper-level high shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic states. This would result in a low end (15-25% ) chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Any relief from the oppressive heat would be short-lived as these conditions may continue into the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure remains over the region. Southwest winds will continue to gust up to 25 kts at JBR/MEM through around 00Z. Otherwise, southwest winds will remain 10 kts or less.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent. Wetting rains are not expected until the latter half of the week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>012-020.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.