textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Light showers will impact the Mid-South tonight. For areas near the Tennessee River, flurries cannot be ruled out

- A warming trend will kick off on Wednesday with highs reaching the low 80s by Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The Mid-South remains sandwiched between an anomalously strong ridge over the Desert Southwest and a departing upper level low over the New England states. As a result, northwest flow continues to advect cold and dry air into the region. 11AM surface observations depict dewpoints in the single digits across the majority of the area. These trends are about 5 degrees below initial forecasts, so decreased values through the overnight hours. Dry air will allow relative humidity values to fall to about 25% this afternoon. The remainder of today will be sunny with highs mainly in the 40s.

Overnight, a weak shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow aloft will bring a 15% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will hover around freezing for areas along the Tennessee River tonight. A few flurries cannot be ruled out in this area as the shortwave passes. Accumulations are not anticipated with any snow showers that develop. Elsewhere, light showers will continue through mid-morning.

The remainder of the week will be warm and dry as southerly winds bring Gulf air into the Mid-South. Daily highs will increase through the weekend, reaching the low 80s by Saturday. Long range forecasts indicate a frontal passage early Monday, though most guidance keeps things dry through at least next Tuesday.

ANS

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A weak disturbance will move through overnight, bringing a low chance (< 20%) of showers to the MKL area through sunrise. As such, have only included a VCSH at this site and no precip elsewhere. Otherwise, this will mainly be a wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours as the weak front moves through. Gusty south winds will pick up Wednesday morning to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the lowest cloud deck hovering right around 7 kft AGL overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Dewpoints in the single digits to low teens will produce MinRH values around 25% today. This will result in elevated fire weather concerns through the afternoon, though light 20ft winds and recent wetting rains should hamper fire development. Southerly winds will resume on Wednesday, increasing moisture in the Mid-South. Fire weather concerns for Wednesday through the end of the week are minimal.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.