textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday. Thursday could see record high temperatures with readings in the upper 70s and potentially reaching near 80 degrees.

- An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday. Temperatures will cool a bit behind a cold front Friday and over the weekend, edging closer to normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Overnight, fog is the biggest question in the very short term. High clouds should help limit development, but current dew point depressions are generally less than 3 degrees with light winds. Winds should increase through the night. The NBM shows less than a 25% chance of visibility below 1 mile across most of the CWA. Will maintain patchy fog in the forecast and closely monitor observations for the next several hours to determine if a Dense Fog Advisory is needed.

Warm and dry weather will continue today and Wednesday as a broad ridge shifts over the Mississippi River Valley. High temperatures today are expected to make it into the low 60s to near 70 degrees across most of the Midsouth. Potentially record setting high temperatures are in the forecast for west Tennessee and north Mississippi on Thursday, when most of the region is expected to be in the middle to upper 70s. Portions of northeast Mississippi may even approach 80 degrees Thursday afternoon. Given the latest NBM Guidance TUP would set a record high temperature of 78 degrees, breaking the old record by 1 degree.

These temperatures are the result of strong warm air advection that will begin this afternoon and continue Wednesday and Thursday. The strongest winds will be in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. NBM probabilistic guidance has a 40-50% chance of sustained winds of 25 MPH or higher Wednesday along with a 40-60% chance of gusts above 40 MPH. Sustained winds will be similar Thursday, but the NBM lowers the chance of 40+ MPH gusts to 35-45%. Nevertheless, expect a windy period starting late tomorrow and continuing through Thursday. A Wind Advisory may be needed in this region.

The aforementioned broad ridge will shift along the East Coast Wednesday and weak southwest flow will set up over the region Wednesday night. A 995mb surface low will track across the Central Plains into northern Missouri by midday Thursday placing all of the Midsouth in the warm sector of the system. We may see a few showers (<20% chance) in the northernmost portions of the CWA before noon Thursday, but chances increase area-wide (up to 20-40%) during the afternoon. The heavier showers and any strong to severe thunderstorms are most likely across northwest Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel where CAPE may reach 450 J/KG Thursday afternoon/evening with 0-3 SRH up to 230 m^2/s^2. Any threat for severe hail will be minimal (<10%) due to weak lapse rates. The threat for any severe storms should diminish well before midnight as a cold front moves across the Midsouth. Guidance has sped up the passing of the cold front by 3-6 hours, but post frontal showers may linger through midday. Any additional thunderstorms will be confined to northeast Mississippi early Saturday.

We will be a bit cooler Saturday through Monday. Expect highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday and in the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are expected to return to the Midsouth Sunday afternoon.

JDS

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

As is often the case in pre-frontal warm sector environments, guidance envelope remains wide with respect to CIG bases through the next 30 hours. The 12Z TAFs forecast a transition to MVFR CIGs by mid/late morning to reflect deepening of the diurnal mixing layer. This MVFR deck may scatter out by mid-afternoon before closing up this evening. Confidence is limited however.

Expect a healthy low level jet to develop after 03Z, with FL020 winds nearing 50KT at MEM and JBR. Directional differences with surface winds should remain within 20 degrees, limiting LLWS potential somewhat.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

High confidence that fire weather danger will remain low through Thursday as minimum relative humidity values stay around or above 50%. Slightly drier conditions (40-50% RH) is expected behind a cold front Friday, but moisture levels will trend higher over the weekend. A warming trend will continue through Thursday as a ridge builds in. Our next shot at wetting rainfall returns late Thursday and continues through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.