textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today as a warm front lifts north, bringing a return to higher humidity.

- Scattered showers and storms, potentially bringing heavy rain or gusty winds, are anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity arrive Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, with heat indices of 105 or greater expected daily through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Scattered showers with some embedded, isolated thunderstorms continue to move across the Mid-South with a warm front slowly lifting northward. While some dry air at the surface has prevented some of the current radar echos from reaching the surface, some observations have been reporting periods of drizzle to light rain. Cloudiness with this system has led to temperatures remaining a bit below guidance, so have adjusted temperatures down a few degrees for today to account for such. A band of some heavier showers has set up across east AR into north MS where PWAT values are currently around 2.3" right along a stationary boundary. This will need to be monitored into the afternoon for some localized flooding potential. Otherwise, we should see a small break in any shower and thunderstorm activity in the early evening.

Overnight and into Saturday, a weak shortwave will move through the Mid-South with the aforementioned stationary boundary slowly lifting northward through the area. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop early Saturday morning, lasting into the afternoon while slowly pushing southeastward. PWAT values are expected to climb to around 2 to 2.5" across the area, which puts us well above the 90th percentile. This will allow for some heavy downpours with most CAM soundings showing a skinny CAPE profile. While a thunderstorm or two could produce some stronger winds, I think the localized flooding threat will be the main concern on Saturday. CAM guidance does remain spread on where the heaviest rainfall could occur and there is still considerable uncertainty. I do think some portions of the Mid- South could see some pockets of around 2" while others very well could remain dry.

By Sunday, surface high pressure will continue to build to our south with a very hot and humid airmass funneling into the Mid- South. Dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of next week, with high temperatures reaching the mid 90s on Sunday and likely upper 90s to near 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday. With dew point temperatures well into the 70s, heat indices will likely reach above 105 degrees for much of the area, with many reaching over 110 degrees. LREF probabilities of heat indices over 110 degrees are generally above 50% for locations along and west of the MS River as early as Sunday afternoon, lasting through Tuesday afternoon. Exact placement of Extreme Heat Warnings / Heat Advisories is still a little too far out, but heat headlines will certainly be needed by Sunday through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for much of the Mid-South. By Wednesday, a back-door frontal boundary will sweep through the region, which will allow heat indices to fall back a bit for portions of the Mid-South. While things will still be above- normal temperature wise, heat headlines may become more sporadic to end next week. Uncertainty remains, but prepare for dangerous heat and humidity through at least the first half of next week and begin to take preparedness actions now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A warm front will lift slightly northeast across the region into Saturday. Convection has remained mostly clear of TAF sites, with isolated to scattered activity possible at MEM and TUP this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop upstream and drop into TAF sites towards Saturday morning. Confidence in TS coverage remains low and rain showers will prevail for the end of the period. MVFR conditions have been slow to improve at MEM, necessitating a TEMPO group for the start of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail outside of any convection.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values will remain above 40% and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. While conditions will begin to dry out by Sunday, hot and humid conditions will return.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.