textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through Thursday topping out in the low to middle 90s. Heat indices should be near or slightly below Advisory criteria.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region over the weekend. Precipitation may keep temperatures in check, but heat Indices in the triple digits are expected.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A cutoff low over the southeastern US has finally shifted far enough east as to have lost its influence on the Mid-South. As a result, warmer temperatures and clear skies have returned to the region.

A ridge will shift over the Southern Plains today, shunting the trough east. As the ridge builds in from the west, temperatures will trend closer to normal today. Expect highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices should remain below 100 degrees.

Tomorrow, the ridge will deamplify and transition across the Mississippi River Valley, initiating a warming trend with low to mid-90s expected from Thursday through the weekend. This pattern will suppress convection through Thursday, with only marginal rain chances (20-30%) returning by Friday.

The weekend into early next looks hot and humid, but nothing unseasonably warm. Increased cloud cover Friday through the weekend may keep temperatures in check a bit, but increasing humidity will boost Heat Indices nonetheless. Heat index values Heat Advisory criteria of 105F should be mostly confined to the MS Delta region, south of Memphis. There is uncertainty into how broad or deep the trough will emerge, which will heavily influence temperatures and precipitation this weekend. For now, a 20-40% PoP was maintained through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as we sit on the backside of a low pressure system. Fog with reduced visibility is expected for a few hours overnight at MKL/TUP with calm winds and clear skies. Northeast winds will remain 7kts or less over the next 30 hours. Kept AMD NOT SKED in for TUP due to ongoing ASOS issues.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40%, with 20ft winds generally remaining at to below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.