textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of eastern Arkansas, and portions of northwest Mississippi and West Tennessee into Friday. Heat index values are expected to range between 105 and 109 degrees.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms persists each day through Saturday, particularly for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern with a secondary threat of flooding.

- High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

00Z upper air analysis this evening showed northwest flow aloft present across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Tennessee Valley. GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show a weakening MCS over the region with some remnant outflow dominant storms over portions of West Tennessee. Temperatures have fallen back into the lower to middle 70s where showers and thunderstorms have occurred. Elsewhere, warm and muggy conditions persist with temperatures in the 80s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends showed additional convection developing over East Central Missouri late this evening. However, latest mesoanalysis shows a somewhat worked over atmosphere with poor mid-level lapse rates, decreased MLCAPE, increasing convective inhibition, and weak shear. Latest CAMs indicate some of this activity may attempt to drop into northern sections of the Mid-South towards daybreak with the probabilities of this activity expected to remain sub-severe overnight.

Any convective activity during the day on Friday will likely be influenced by leftover outflow boundaries from the overnight convection and differential heating as another subtle shortwave in northwest flow aloft moves across the Mid-South. Weak shortwave ridging will build in Friday afternoon before another round of showers and thunderstorms drop into the same areas Friday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain the threats for any stronger thunderstorms. Heat will continue to be an issue on Friday as temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s along and west of the Mississippi and combine with dewpoints in the mid 70s to produce heat index values between 105 to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Friday across this aforementioned area.

The wet and unsettled pattern will continue this weekend and will remain favorable for nocturnal MCSs and resultant MCVs to produce additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Mid- South. Overall shear is expected to remain on the low side and with sufficient instability conditions will remain conducive for damaging winds. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for northwest Tennessee, portions of the Missouri Bootheel and extreme northeast Arkansas where several rounds of rain are expected.

Long term model trends continue to indicate a building ridge over the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle and Upper Midwest next week. This may help to bring some drier air into portions of the Mid-South but an eastern fetch of tropical moisture may keep rain chances occurring daily especially across north Mississippi.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR CIGs currently occupy much of the airspace this morning, especially over east AR and West TN. A few thunderstorms have developed along the MS/TN border with additional agitated Cu across northern MS. Therefore, MEM could see VCTS or more thunderstorms through 21z. Some convection could make its way south towards TUP, but confidence in this scenario is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Storms will diminish in coverage around 00z with VFR conditions into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin over west KY and southeast MO and move into northern West TN through the early morning. Guidance has backed off the southern extent of convection, confining impacts to MKL between 04z - 10z. Expect yet another round of convection after 18z tomorrow where the inclusion of TS is likely in upcoming TAF issuances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Fire weather conditions remain stable across the Mid-South into the weekend. Relative humidity levels will stay above 40 percent, accompanied by light winds and daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049- 058.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022- 054-055.