textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- An area-wide Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Saturday, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for late September.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Morning upper air maps show a 596 - 598 dm ridge over the Mid- South. Strong diurnal heating underneath the ridge will bring a continuation of near-record temperatures across the region with highs likely reaching the upper 90s and low 100s through this afternoon. Dewpoint observations show values in the middle to upper 60s, which are expected to mix down slightly through this evening, but values should remain high enough to allow for heat indices above 105 F. Model guidance is still in good agreement that the ridge will continue to sit over the region into this weekend, although slowly weakening in amplitude. Therefore, temperatures around 100 F are expected through Saturday afternoon, potentially as far out as Sunday, with similar heat index values to today. In turn, a Heat Advisory is in effect areawide through Saturday evening at 8 PM CDT. Just enough uncertainty remains regarding heat index values Sunday afternoon to preclude the extension of the Heat Advisory through Sunday.

Medium range guidance continues to trend towards higher confidence in a further weakening of the upper ridge into the early part of next week. The primary drivers for this weakening are from two troughs, one across the northern Plains and another over the Gulf, that act in tandem to smooth out the ridge. By Monday afternoon, 500 mb heights will be potentially as low as 586 dm, leading to a drastic change in low-level temperatures. At the same time, a 1030+ mb surface high will develop across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, pushing cooler air southwestward across the Great Lakes and Atlantic Coastline through midweek.

The rest of the forecast period will then likely be dominated by surface high pressure as northwesterlies replace the ridging and surface northerlies keep drier air locked into the region. Furthermore, cooler surface theta e and upper subsidence will keep PoPs below mentionable through the end of next week. Expect daily highs in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday and beyond with lows in the low to middle 60s. Although we may have been burned, both literally and figuratively by the temperature forecast in the past week and a half, guidance has certainly started to converge on this cooler solution. So, look forward to more bearable heat on the horizon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Persistent high pressure will keep VFR conditions and light winds through the period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Strong ridging will continue to produce afternoon highs near or above 100 F through this weekend across the region, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the 30s for the majority of the region. There is a 40% - 50% chance of minimum relative humidity values falling below 30% both today and tomorrow. Fuels will also continue to dry out with 10 hour fuels modeled to fall to around 10% through the afternoon hours each day through Sunday. Fortunately, 20 foot winds will be light, generally residing below 10 knots with tall, 5000 foot or higher mixing heights. Fog chances remain low (< 10%), but patchy fog cannot be ruled out. A cold front is expected to reach the region early next week, cooling afternoon highs, bringing minimum relative humidity values above 40%, and shifting winds to a northerly direction.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.