textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- High temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to low 100s through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect Thursday from 11 AM to 8 PM for portions of the Mid-South.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week with some localized relief from the heat due to rain.

- A drier forecast will return to the Mid-South by Sunday and continue into next week as high pressure strengthens across the region. Above normal temperatures will continue as well.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A large upper ridge persists across the southern states this evening. A few leftover showers continue along the KY/TN border associated with an old outflow boundary. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South with warm temperatures and light southerly winds. A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Mid-South on Thursday. Before the front arrives, temperatures will heat up once again with mid 90s to low 100s across the area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Thursday for extreme SW TN, NW MS, and much of eastern AR.

The cold front will intersect an increasingly unstable airmass as it enters northern portions of the Mid-South Thursday afternoon. MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg would support a few storms with damaging winds. 0-6 km bulk shear values around 30 kts will help aid storm organization. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN for Thursday into Thursday night. The front will stall across the area on Friday, and storms will refire during the afternoon and evening as surface heating cranks up and weak upper troughing remains over the area. A few strong storms could occur given the instability though wind shear is fairly weak, so severe chances are fairly low. Northern areas of the Mid-South, say north of I-40, will not be quite as hot on Friday thanks to the front being stalled across the Mid-South.

The front will dissipate by Saturday, and the weak upper troughing will start pushing east with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms east of the MS River by Saturday afternoon. This system is no drought buster, but areas along the KY/MO borders and TN River/AL border have a 40 to 60 percent chance of picking up one-half inch through the event. Upper ridging returns by Sunday and continues into the mid-week with high temps returning to the mid and upper 90s areawide. Heat headlines may be needed at times, mainly over the Delta southwest of Memphis. The upper ridge does not look quite as strong next week, so there is a better chance of isolated diurnal showers and storms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A slow-moving cold front will push into the Mid-South later this afternoon into tonight. Chances for TSRA will increase at JBR. However, overnight model data has continued to trend towards a slightly slower arrival at MKL, with potentially less convective coverage at MEM and MKL. Precipitation will gradually taper off overnight with winds veering north/northeast behind the front. Mainly rain-free conditions are expected at TUP with light southerly winds through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A cold front is forecast to move into the region, bringing increasing wetting rain chances, higher minimum relative humidity values, and a northerly wind shift. Elevated wetting rain chances will continue through Saturday, which will keep minimum relative humidity values above 40 percent.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ048-049-088.