textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat will continue through at least next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for heat indices ranging from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Largely dry conditions will continue across the Mid-South over at least the next seven days. Overall drought conditions are expected to worsen in the coming weeks with this prolonged hot and dry period.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Hot conditions will persist across the Mid-South for the foreseeable future. The primary feature driving this pattern is a persistent upper-level ridge positioned over the southern United States. Daily triple-digit high temperatures are becoming common across the region. When combined with moderate humidity, heat index values are frequently reaching or exceeding 105F during the afternoon and early evening hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will offer little relief, except in localized areas directly beneath a cell. Expect similar conditions on Saturday and Sunday, with dangerous heat indices and high temperatures climbing into the triple digits across much of the area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Sunday.

An upper-level trough digging into the northeastern U.S. will push a backdoor cold front through the region on Sunday. However, noticeable relief will be delayed until drier air filters in on northeasterly surface winds on Monday. Dewpoints are expected to drop into the 60s, keeping heat index values below advisory criteria. Because dry air warms efficiently, afternoon highs will still reach the mid-to-upper 90s, with low 100s possible across portions of the Mississippi Delta on Monday afternoon.

The upper-level ridge strengthens over the region Tuesday through Thursday, while humidity levels gradually increase under light southerly flow. High temperatures will remain well above normal, ranging from 95F to 100F. Heat index values may approach advisory thresholds during this period, and trends will be monitored closely.

By late week, another upper-level shortwave digging into the Great Lakes and Northeast may push a cold front toward the Mid- South. This will bring low chances for rain along with slightly lower humidity and temperatures, though no significant cooldown is anticipated. Medium-range guidance indicates the upper ridge will quickly rebuild next weekend into the following week. Overall, hot and predominantly dry weather will continue into mid- September and potentially beyond, with drought conditions worsening.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

High pressure aloft and at the surface will bring continued light winds and VFR over the next 30 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

There is a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but wetting rain is not expected. While winds will remain light and variable over the next several days, hot temperatures will result in relative humidity minimums of 35 to 40 percent. A weak cold front will pass through Sunday, ushering drier air into the region by Monday. With minimum relative humidity values falling below 30 percent, dry fuels may create an elevated fire danger on Monday. Due to dry soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected over the next several days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.