textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Dry conditions will persist with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Thursday.

- Saturated soils from previous rainfall will result in fog development over the next few mornings as winds go calm.

- A reinforcing dry cold front will arrive Friday with much cooler air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 50s to 60s with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A pretty calm day is present across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 60s under a thin stratus deck. Highs will moderate into mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon as surface high pressure pushes in behind this morning's cold front. Moving into the overnight hours, eyes turn to increased fog potential as winds go calm under clearing skies along narrow dewpoint depressions. Our entire area received appreciable rainfall from last night's line of storms leading to saturated soils further aiding in fog development overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory (50-75% confidence) will likely be warranted across much if not all of the Mid-South as visibilities begin to plummet. Fog should begin to burn off shortly after sunrise as mixing occurs. We'll wake up to a chilly morning with lows in the 40s before we rebound slightly with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s as upper-level southwest flow builds in.

Late Thursday into early Friday, upper-level troughing will begin pushing into the Mississippi Valley with an attendant reinforcing cold front. A cool, dry airmass will be associated with this front resulting in dry conditions. Much cooler temperatures will begin filtering behind this front heading into the weekend with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Early morning frost is anticipated Saturday morning across mainly West Tennessee with latest NBM probs hinting at a 45-60% chance of temperatures <36F. Sunday, however, will be more of a slam dunk for areawide frost and maybe even some freezing fog as NBM guidance has a 35-50% chance of freezing temperatures across mainly West Tennessee. Moving into next workweek, guidance is hinting at temperatures beginning to rebound slightly as early as Tuesday as our next system begins to rotate into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The latest 6-10 day outlook is in agreement leaning slightly above normal (40-50%) heading into midweek next week. In terms of precipitation, a dry airmass looks to remain parked over the Middle Mississippi Valley leading to dry conditions over at least the next seven days.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

An MVFR deck will prevail this afternoon across the Mid-South. Expect clearing from west to east early this evening with VFR conditions returning. West winds at 7-9 kts this afternoon will diminish to less than 5 kts overnight. Weak high pressure, wet soils, and light winds will set the stage for dense fog development overnight. There is a medium to high confidence (50- 75%) for dense fog development over a large part of the Mid- South. Fog is more likely at MKL, JBR, and TUP, where a TEMPO for dense fog has been introduced. Confidence is lower at MEM since fog development often occurs there last. VFR conditions will return areawide by mid-morning Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Recent appreciable rainfall will aid in keeping fire danger concerns at bay for the foreseeable future. Fog will begin to develop tomorrow and Friday morning with reduced visibility along previously saturated soils. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% into the upcoming weekend. 20 ft winds will generally be 10 mph or less through the fire weather period. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind a reinforcing cold front late week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.