textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Hazardous heat will persist through the weekend, with little rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Saturday.

- A frontal boundary will bring increased rain chances to the Mid-South early next week. Above normal temperatures are likely to continue into next week

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A 600 dam upper ridge is centered over the Mid-South tonight. This feature will dominate the region's weather through this weekend while slowly retrograding westward. Near record to record highs are expected each day with temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s degrees. Triple-digit afternoon heat index values will be common, and the Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 pm Saturday. Don't let your guard down on the heat. Check the back seat, stay in the AC, and stay hydrated.

A mid-level trough will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Monday with a weak cold front moving into the region. Meanwhile, an upper low in the NE Gulf will result in increasing moisture over the Southeast U.S. As a result of these two features, rain chances will increase early next week. However, QPF amounts look fairly paltry for now, at less than a half inch through next Wednesday.

Starting to see some divergence in the models by the middle to end of next week, with a large spread in NBM temperature guidance. Some guidance is showing more troughing over the eastern CONUS and possibly cooler temps for the Mid-South. However, the majority of the guidance still favors at least some upper ridging continuing across the Mid-South along with above normal temperatures well into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Persistent VFR conditions as strong high pressure remains over the region. The area of high pressure will retrograde over the airspace throughout the day hinting at light and variable winds persisting for the remainder of the period.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fuels will continue to dry amidst near record heat each day. Relative humidity values will range from 30 to 40 percent each afternoon with moderate to high recovery each night. Widespread fire weather concerns will remain low to moderate over the next week or so as 20 foot winds remain less than 10 mph. No fog concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.