textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Mostly dry conditions and slightly below-normal temperatures will persist through today with scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of north Mississippi each day.

- Scattered thunderstorms (40 to 60 percent chance) are expected to return across the Mid-South from Friday afternoon through Saturday.

- Oppressive heat and humidity will return on Sunday and continue into early next week, with high temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices at or above 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A stationary boundary remains draped over portions of the Mid- South through the first half of today, with scattered clouds generally south of the I-40 corridor. The location of this boundary has allowed much of the Mid-South to remain on the "cooler" side for mid July, with some locations across north to central MS still approaching 90 by this afternoon. Some scattered showers have developed to the east of the area, with isolated chances this afternoon across NE MS. With the isolated shower chances this afternoon, calm winds, and generally low dew point depressions overnight, some patchy fog may develop for locations south of the stalled boundary into Friday morning.

For Friday, the aforementioned boundary will begin to lift back northward through the daytime, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms generally along and south of I-40. By Friday night into Saturday, a weak MCS will descend out of Missouri and move across the Mid-South. With the timing of this system, much of the CAM guidance that is within range shows some potential for elevated CAPE, but generally weak lapse rates. Shear could increase very locally as the MCS approaches, but for the most part remains too low for organized severe weather. Will not entirely rule out a strong thunderstorm or two, but overall the threat appears to be very low at this time. Any thunderstorm activity along this system will move out through the day on Saturday, leaving behind dry conditions by Sunday. As far as temperatures go over the next few days, we will remain near to just above normal through Friday with high temperatures spanning the 80s to low 90s. By Saturday, high temperatures will begin to creep back into the low 90s for much of the area. A Heat Advisory may be needed for locations west of the MS River and across the MS Delta on Saturday, but there is enough uncertainty with the aforementioned system that confidence is still low.

LREF and NBM guidance remains in generally good agreement for a dry and increasingly hot forecast by Sunday into at least the middle of next week. An upper-level ridge will continue to build across the Rockies into the Central Plains, with the Mid-South either right on the cusp on the ridge or well beneath. This will allow a much more hot and humid airmass to return to the region, keeping high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Sunday through at least next Wednesday. With dew point values increasing back to the low to mid 70s, this will allow daily heat indices of at least 105, many potentially reaching over 110. As such, heat headlines will likely be needed by at least Sunday, continuing into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

MVFR ceilings have returned to VFR conditions at MEM and TUP over the past couple of hours. Latest HREF and deterministic guidance indicate at least a medium chance of patchy fog and low stratus redeveloping at TUP overnight near a stalled out surface boundary. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all sites. NE/E winds between 8-11 kts will become light by this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. Showers will remain isolated across northeast Mississippi this afternoon, becoming more scattered across the Mid-South Friday afternoon into Saturday. By Sunday, rain chances will cease with high heat and humidity continuing into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.