textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Unseasonably cool and dry weather will prevail through Thursday. Potential marginal fire weather concerns will also exist through this period.

- A significant warm-up is expected Friday and into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s.

- Long-range outlooks favor a transition to a wet and above normal precipitation pattern returning week.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A calm night is on display at this hour with clear skies and mostly calm winds as high pressure prevails over the region. Aforementioned conditions in combination with low dewpoint depressions will lead to a potentially favorable set up for patchy fog development mainly over northeast Mississippi and along the Tennessee River. Any fog that does develop overnight will quickly burn off shortly after daybreak as mixing occurs. Another near to slightly above normal and dry day is in store for the Mid-South tomorrow as surface high pressure and upper-level northwest flow continues to dominate the region. Marginal fire weather danger will also exist tomorrow with forecast dewpoints in the 40s and 50s and occasional northwest wind gusts up to 20 mph, ahead of a dry cold front. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement may be warranted.

Thursday will be a little cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the aforementioned front. Though lowered dewpoints will still be present Thursday, gusty winds are not expected, leading to less of a fire weather concern. Come late Thursday, weak upper-level ridging will begin to build across the region, surging temperatures Friday and into the weekend. A subtle shortwave also looks to eject east Friday into Saturday. However, no precipitation is expected, with only increasing humidity leading to warm and humid conditions. Some areas could see readings in the lower 90s by Sunday and especially Monday as the upper-level pattern shifts southwest and an upper-level trough begins to push in from the northern Rockies. As this pattern shifts, shower and thunderstorm chances will also begin to increase and persist through mid-week. The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook is in agreement, leaning towards above normal precipitation for the Mid-south. Though, we're still a little too far out to iron out the exact details on the overall evolution of this system, latest LREF guidance has < 20% chance for 500 J/kg and 30 kts of bulk wind shear. For now, be prepared for wet and unsettled conditions.

AEH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all terminals through the period. Winds may gust from the northwest between 15 - 20 knots at JBR/MEM between 18z - 00z. Winds will decrease in speed at all sites again thereafter, while also veering through the remainder of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Marginal fire danger concerns will arise through at least Thursday. The main cause for these concerns will be due to minimum relative humidity values dropping below 30 percent throughout most of the Mid-South each afternoon through Thursday. 10-hr dead fuel moisture will be around to just below 10 percent through this period, but recent rainfall and light winds should act to mitigate more significant fire weather concerns. An RFD may be warranted Wednesday and Thursday given the above conditions.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.