textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Strong southerly winds will produce gusts up to 45 mph on Monday afternoon, prompting a Wind Advisory for parts of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

- A Slight Risk (2/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with damaging winds and hail being the primary hazards.

- Flash flooding and damaging winds are the main threat on Wednesday, especially south of the I-40 corridor. Cooler and drier air will return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The latest surface analysis places the Mid-South squarely between a 1018mb high over the FL Panhandle with a 1001mb low over NE Kansas. Strong southerly winds will persist throughout much of the day as the pressure gradient remains between 6 and 7 mb from NE Arkansas to NE Mississippi. A wind advisory remains in effect through 7PM CDT tonight for winds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph across northeast AR and the MO Bootheel.

The weather pattern awakens overnight as an approaching and decaying MCS enters the region from the NW. Instability and moisture will be limited, with LREF MUCAPE values between 200 to 400 J/kg along and west of the Mississippi River. Convective coverage will be mainly scattered with mostly showers and isolated thunderstorms through late morning across the region. Behind the morning storms, moderate moisture advection will cause dewpoints to swell into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon.

Synoptic model guidance is consistent with upper level split flow consolidating into a phasing and deepening trough over the Four Corners Region late Tuesday night. Downstream, a couple of shortwaves will translate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. These waves will help push a synoptic front down into the Mid- South region from the north just as the LLJ ramps up. The parameter space is plenty sheared with HREF mean bulk shear between 50 and 60 kts, mean 0-1km SRH between 200 and 250 m2/s2, with a wide range of instability evident by 25-75th percentile ranging from 100-750 SBCAPE. The HRRR member remains the most aggressive with respect to instability with 750-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and north of I-40 into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Hi-res guidance suggests that a broken line will enter northeast Arkansas late Tuesday night and evolve into a messy convective mode. Clockwise-curved hodographs will support a variety of storm modes including: multicellular structures, bowing segments, with a low chance for some discrete activity out ahead of the front. We collaborated with SPC to expand the Slight Risk (2/5) further east to include W Tennessee and NW Mississippi. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms appears to be focused between 9PM Tuesday and 3AM Wednesday. Trailing showers and convection will continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Wednesday's severe thunderstorm forecast is contingent on where the synoptic front stalls early Wednesday morning. HREF guidance suggests that it will stall along or just south of the I- 40 corridor with the environment recovering by late morning, mainly south of I-40. Mean 850mb flow will become nearly parallel to the front suggesting a Maddox frontal boundary flash flooding setup. PWATs will approach the 99th percentile near the front with much of north Mississippi in AOA the 90th percentile. The mean QPF will range between 1 and 2 inches, with higher maximums where any storms continually train. With a positively-tilted trough approaching from the northwest, a southward advancing front, and deep layer flow nearly parallel to the front, a mostly linear storm mode is expected. Given the slow-moving advancement of the front and the nearly parallel steering flow, the main threats are expected to be flash flooding with damaging winds through late afternoon. The front will finally clear the area late Wednesday night with cooler and drier air filtering in behind.

Surface high pressure will remain in place through late week with dry northwest flow aloft. Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday with a return to normal temperatures by this weekend.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon at all four terminals with gusty southerly winds at MEM/JBR/MKL. Gusts at JBR are expected to rise above 30 knots through 00z with gusts between 20 - 25 knots at MEM/MKL. LLWS coverage will increase through the night, peaking between 08z - 12z at MEM/JBR/MKL between 40 - 45 knots. A line of showers and storms will then enter the region from the west, impacting these three sites with a TEMPO for -TSRA at JBR through the end of the period. MVFR impacts from both visibility and CIGs are expected to accompany this precipitation with continued gusty winds out of the south. There is a medium (40%) chance that JBR experiences IFR CIGs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

There are minimal fire weather concerns over the next 7 days. Humidity and widespread wetting rain chances will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the entire Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region for Thursday and Friday. There is a low to medium chance that minimum relative humidity values dip below 40% on Friday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.