textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous heat will continue into next week. An areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday. Heat index values will range from 100 to 109 degrees.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today over northwest Mississippi. No significant rainfall is expected.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This morning's upper air analysis continues to feature an upper- level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. This ridge of high pressure has mostly suppressed convection across the Mid-South for the last several days. Noon temperatures are in the 90s areawide with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

NBM guidance continues to exhibit a high bias with surface dewpoints during peak heating and mixing. Consequently, heat index values have underperformed, remaining mostly just below heat advisory criteria. Thus, dewpoints were blended towards the NBM 10th and 25th percentiles. A persistence forecast will continue for the next several days with rain chances remaining very low and mostly confined to north Mississippi. Long range ensemble data continues to show the upper-level ridge weakening slightly into the Labor Day weekend then re-strengthening across the area into next week. Thus, afternoon temperatures will continue to be mostly in the mid 90s to approaching 100 degrees each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

No major aviation concerns this period as high pressure prevails. Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon, but spatial coverage and probability is too low to include in TAFs.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over north central and northwest Mississippi this afternoon. Otherwise, wetting rainfall chances will remain very limited. While winds will remain light through the next several days, hot temperatures over the Midsouth will result in minimum relative humidity of 35 to 45 percent. Due to dry soil conditions, nighttime fog is not expected.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.