textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Temperatures will trend cooler Thursday through the weekend behind multiple cold fronts.

- A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday and Sunday mornings.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Surface observations show a cold front over the Mid-South this evening with a mid-level shortwave trough swinging southeast through the Middle Mississippi River Valley. Only a few, weak convective showers have managed to develop along the cold front this evening. Decreasing instability as the trough makes its way east of the region in conjunction with the passage of the cold front will result in no precipitation by Thursday morning. Expect lows to remain in the low 50s and upper 40s.

Zooming out into Thursday reveals an amplified upper ridge developing over the Rockies. Additional shortwaves will develop and/or emanate around broader troughing over the eastern CONUS. This will support reinforcing cold fronts to pass through Mid- South through the latter half of the week, leading to drastically cooler temperatures as we approach this weekend. Highs will drop into 50s Friday and will remain at similar levels through the weekend. However, morning lows will become impressively cold with overnight temperatures plummeting into the low 30s starting Friday morning. Current NBM probabilities of dropping below 30 F sit between 50% - 80% Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings, highest in portions of West Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi.

Models begin to transition the upper pattern into an omega block this weekend, which quickly breaks down as the western trough escapes into the southern Plains. Enough lift may manage to reach the Mid-South late Sunday and early Monday morning to produce a few showers south of I-40. This week's successive cold fronts will advect in a deep layer of dry air, which will still be present come early next week. Any precipitation would then evaporate, slowly moistening the layers below, but the environment is not expected to be supportive enough to fully bring meaningful precipitation to the surface. Therefore, PoPs remain below 30% areawide with nearly no QPF.

Ensembles are still in agreement on the general upper pattern as far out as Wednesday next week, reamplifying the upper ridge over the Plains. Surface high pressure will slide back into the region in response, locking more cold and dry weather into the forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR. NW winds will increase to 10-12 kts, and become occasionally gusty by 18z and then gradually diminish tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A cold front has passed through the region Wednesday evening, bringing elevated 20-foot winds and cooler temperatures. Elevated northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected during the daylight hours Thursday and Friday. However, even with cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 30 percent throughout the majority of the region through the forecast period. Lastly, elevated winds will keep fog potential low.

Successive cold fronts will bring low temperatures into the low 30s throughout the region beginning Friday. Expect a hard freeze to take place in West Tennessee and northern Mississippi each morning from Friday through Sunday. Near freezing lows are expected to continue into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.