textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Relatively cool conditions will remain in place Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered areas of rainfall are expected through Friday, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and location of showers and storms. Depending on where storms set up, a localized flash flooding threat could exist each afternoon into evening.

- The upcoming weekend and into next week will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the mid to upper 90s by as early as Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A relatively "cool" and pleasant late June day is on display across the Mid-South. Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least the afternoon hours as we sit on the back side of a cool surface high pressure. By this evening and into the overnight hours, however, this dry spell is expected to come to an end, especially along and west of the Mississippi River, as isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return amidst a subtle mid-level shortwave and stationary front. Enough instability may be in place heading into late evening and the early morning hours as dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s with upwards of 1750 J/kg of SBCAPE and PWATs of around 2.1", nearing the 99th percentile for this time of the year. However, some limiting factors will exist: effective shear of around 25 kts and low-level and mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km. If a strong storm or two can find enough instability for upscale growth, damaging winds will be the primary severe concern this evening and into the overnight hours. Perhaps a greater concern along and west of the Mississippi River will be heavy downpours leading to a localized flash flooding threat as many areas, especially over northeast Arkansas, have saturated soils due to previous rainfall this past weekend and Monday.

Moving into tomorrow, the present upper-level northwest flow regime will begin to shift more zonal as subtle height rises begin to move over the region. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will be present both tomorrow and Friday afternoon and evening as a few very subtle embedded shortwaves eject over the Tennessee and Kentucky stateline. Warmer air will begin to filter in, increasing temperatures closer to normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow. An upper-level ridge, currently over the southwestern CONUS, will continue to build closer to our area, increasing temperatures late week and into the weekend. By Sunday, high temperatures will begin to flirt with the mid 90s and heat indices in excess of 100 F as forecast dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s. Heat and humidity will continue to be the main weather story through at least mid-week as temperatures potentially climb into the upper 90s by Monday resulting in heat indices in excess of 105 F in many areas and a potential for heat indices in excess of 110 F. Latest NBM guidance has a 80-95% chance for much of the Mid-South exceeding 95 F early week. Heat headlines will more than likely be warranted. However, daily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms may inhibit heat indices from creeping into Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110+F). Bottom line, this weekend and into next week will be hot as a late June heat wave moves across the region.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conds are expected this afternoon along with light winds. The 12z CAMs are still not in great agreement, but the general consensus is a complex forming over southern MO and/or northern AR this evening. This will result in a chance of thunderstorms at JBR, but anything that develops will likely be in the dissipating stage by the time it reaches MEM due to diminishing instability and shear.

Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Thursday due to surface heating. Location will be dependent on outflow boundaries left over from tonight's convection and confidence is too low to mention attm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Recent wetting rains will preclude fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. Minimum relative humidity values above 40% and daily bouts of showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.