textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s through the end of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through the remainder of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

- More warm and dry weather is expected through this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Dry and warm conditions will continue through the remainder of the week as an upper ridge sets up over the region. Expect daily highs temperatures in the 70s and low 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values, which have been the main story this week, will remain below 30% areawide both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Without meaningful rainfall in the past month or so and while in the middle of a transitional period that is traditionally dry, vegetation is forecast to be very dry. Both the low atmospheric humidity and dry fuels will mean a continuation of the elevated fire danger that has plagued the region this week.

By this weekend, the upper ridge axis will have shifted east, extending north and south along the Mississippi River Valley as an omega block. Normally this would lead to an increase in temperatures, but NBM data from today points to a different story: a cooling trend. What appears to be the case is that upper moisture from the trough on the western periphery of the blocking pattern will advect into the region. Most of this moisture will remain at 300 mb and above, leading to an expansive area of thick cirrus clouds, which will then lead to a decrease in solar heating. Therefore, highs will drop into the middle to low 70s. A side effect of the lower amount of insolation will be a shallower mixed boundary layer. With lower surface temperatures and less mixing of mid-level dry air to the surface, relative humidity values could jump back above 30% for the first time in about a week for many areas.

Into next week we will see a pattern change emerge as the omega block breaks down. Zonal westerlies will then begin to take over aloft. Ensembles have begun to converge on this solution, but are still struggling to resolve the position and amplitude of shortwaves within the westerly flow. This has still led to a decent amount of forecast uncertainty this forecast cycle, especially regarding temperature forecasts with a potential cold front by the middle of next week. Additionally, precipitation chances are still bleak as mid-level humidity aloft gets advected north of the region well before the zonal westerlies reach the region, mitigating the potential for a front to produce precipitation later in the week. Therefore, the remainder of the forecast beyond this weekend looks to be leaning towards more of the same.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A ridge of high pressure will continue to produce VFR conditions at TAF sites through the period. Light NNE winds will increase to 5-7 kts on Thursday then become light by Thursday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue again through the Friday afternoon. Low surface moisture will lead to minimum relative humidity values dropping below 30% across the entire region. 10-hour fuels are expected to remain at or around 10 percent fuel moisture. Light 20-foot winds, likely peaking at only 10 mph throughout the afternoon, will preclude the need for Red Flag Warnings. Additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected through the end of the week.

Upper moisture from the Mountain West will move over the region through this weekend, bringing upper cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Surface dewpoints, and hence relative humidity values, will increase as well, leading to minimum relative humidity values rising back above 30% through the weekend. However, rainfall is not expected through the remainder of the forecast. So, portions of the area may need Rangeland Fire Danger Statements this weekend and beyond. 20-foot will continue to remain at or below 10 mph through much of the remainder of the forecast, again precluding the need for Red Flag Warnings at this time.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.