textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the mid 80s this weekend.

- Dry weather will continue into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

All is mostly calm this evening with temperatures comfortably sitting in the mid 50s. Another mostly sunny and warm day is on tap for Thursday as a weak warm front lifts through the region. Though we are currently in very steep northwest flow aloft, this upper level pattern will begin to deamplify through the weekend after the deep longwave trough exits off to the Atlantic Coast. As the upper level pattern becomes more zonal, each day will get progressively warmer through Sunday with the sole influence of WAA along southerly flow at the surface. No PoPs are in sight for the rest of this week; a nondescript surface pattern gives way to very little support for any precip.

One of the only noteworthy features in this pattern is a nearly E- W oriented cold front that will sag through the Mid-South late Sunday evening. Temperatures soar above record territory (mid 80s) on the warm side of this boundary Sunday afternoon for almost all of our climate sites. After a record-breakingly warm day, the aforementioned cold front is expected to complete its passage by Monday morning. Long range ensembles suggest very little moisture available ahead of the front. Meager PWAT values on the order of 0.8 inches per the LREF support nothing more than a couple showers during FROPA. As such, PoPs stay at or below 10% through this entire 7-day forecast period. This FROPA will very briefly send temperatures back to near normal on Monday, but another warmup is on the horizon midweek as quasi-zonal flow aloft returns.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with generally SW/S winds. Wind speeds will pick up to around 7 kts through the daytime, before falling back below 5 kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Dry and progressively warmer conditions will be the main story through the weekend. Continued weak moisture advection along southerly flow will raise minimum relative humidity values well above 30% Thursday with most areas expected to be between 40% and 50% through at least Friday as this moisture transport continues.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.