textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-south with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days. Heat Advisories across portions of the Mid-South are anticipated each day through at least mid-week as heat indices 105 to 110 are expected.

- With a typical summertime pattern persisting, isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon this week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Another "cooler" day is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 80s areawide with a little bit of agitated cu slowly building in. The latest KNQA radar sweep indicates mostly dry conditions across the Mid-South with a few very light showers developing over north Mississippi. Dry conditions are not expected to last very long as a moist airmass and increased PWATs in the 1.9-2.1" range remain over areas mainly south of I- 40. As we move into the afternoon hours, when peak heating occurs, mainly diurnally driven isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected primarily in these areas. Today's parameter space looks much like yesterday's with PWATs around the 90th percentile for this time of the year and enough instability for weak updrafts capable of producing gusty winds and potentially becoming efficient rainfall producers. As a shortwave, currently fixated over our area, translates east through the day, shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to taper off shortly after sunset. As far as temperatures go today, highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s, just shy of heat advisory criteria thanks to increased cloud cover moving into the afternoon.

Tomorrow, however, will be a different story as we clear out overnight resulting in a warm and humid day tomorrow as ridging to our west, currently centered over the four corners region, and ridging over the southeastern CONUS both begin to broaden. These areas of high pressure will shift us, here in the Mid-South, into quasi-zonal flow aloft. As this slight upper-level transition occurs, we will begin to rapidly warm with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s. Heat indices will begin to soar to 105+F in areas along and west of the Mississippi River warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory beginning at 11AM tomorrow. We will remain in this pattern through mid-week as temperatures continue to warm into the mid to potentially upper 90s by Wednesday. Continued Heat Advisories and potential expansions are anticipated each day as ridging continues to broaden. In this typical summertime pattern, weak mid and upper-level embedded perturbations will allow for isolated shower and thunderstorm chances, peaking in the afternoon, each day.

Moving into the latter half of the week, latest guidance has us trending warmer than past runs as ensembles are now keeping dual upper-level troughs further north, remaining over Canada. Aloft, a transition to a northwest flow regime is still expected here over Mid-South; however, if troughing remains north, highs in the upper 90s even pushing into the weekend are not out of the question. As such Heat Advisories have the potential to be warranted every day this week and maybe even extending into next week if upper-level ridging is able to hold strong and keep troughing further north. The latest LREF guidance is in agreement with this solution with around a 30% chance of heat indices 105+F Friday and into next weekend. Something to keep in mind as we head into mid August. As we transition into more of a northwest flow regime, embedded shortwaves will likely give enough lift for isolated showers and thunderstorm chances, especially in the hours, into late week.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A weak trough axis may result in a low chance for convective development at TUP this afternoon. Thus, the PROB30 group will be continued at TUP for the 18Z TAF set. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected at MEM, MKL, and JBR. Light winds will increase to S/SW winds between 6-10 kts this afternoon and again on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum for the foreseeable future as we remain in a typical summertime pattern. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast this afternoon, with isolated coverage through at least mid-week. As a result, minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% with generally light 20 ft winds through the fire weather period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>003-019- 020-048>051-088-089.