textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- A cold front will provide a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, then diminishing this evening.

- An unsettled weather pattern will persist through early next week, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, though severe weather probabilities remain low.

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated next week with highs in the low 80s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

12Z upper air analysis depicted a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Late morning surface analysis showed a weak cold front stretching from the Ohio Valley back through western portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Memphis metro area southeast into portions of northeast Mississippi. Noon temperatures range from the 70s in the rain-cooled air along the I-40 corridor, and 80s elsewhere.

Hourly mesoanalysis yields surface based CAPE values between 3000- 4000 J/g, weak shear between 20-25 kts, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, and precipitable water values around 1.9 inches over north Mississippi in areas that haven't received any rain thus far. Latest CAMs suggest this activity will continue to develop and spread south across the remainder of north Mississippi into this afternoon. An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm or two will be possible into this afternoon mostly over northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will continue to be the predominant threats.

Short-term model trends suggest a couple of MCSs will develop upstream over portions of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. One will occur later tonight and weaken as it approaches the Mid-South on Saturday, with a second one arriving later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. LREF joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in excess of 30 kts will average at best between 20-30% near the Missouri and Kentucky border Saturday evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat for any severe thunderstorms Saturday evening into early Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise into the lower to perhaps middle 90s with heat index values between 100 to 104 degrees over portions of northwest Mississippi. Confidence remains low for reaching Heat Advisory criteria, but will reevaluate if short-term forecast trends warrant a change.

Long term model trends indicate an unsettled pattern will persist across the Mid-South into next week as an upper-level trough encompasses the eastern half of the U.S. This will bring a continuation of daily shower and thunderstorm chances, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. We'll be monitoring trends for a potential organized severe weather by the middle of next week as a stronger shortwave trough moves through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. LREF joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg and shear in excess of 30 kts increase to 30-40% by Wednesday evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms continues to push south of MEM and MKL, with impacts expected at TUP between 20-23Z. Primary concerns include MVFR ceilings and north winds of 10-15 kts, gusting to around 20 kts. As the atmosphere recovers, a second round of showers and storms remains possible at MEM and MKL later this afternoon. Convective coverage will diminish after sunset, leading to VFR conditions and light winds after 00Z through the remainder of the period. While additional storms are possible late tomorrow, confidence is currently below 30% and will be excluded from the MEM TAF for this cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.