textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A Marginal (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions emerge each day this week with a generally benign weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A beautiful Mother's Day is progressing across the Mid-South with some scattered clouds and temperatures currently spanning the mid 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will continue to rise into the afternoon, with high temperatures still on track to reach the low to mid 80s. To our west, a weak shortwave is moving through the plains that will kick off some showers and thunderstorms across our area out ahead. Guidance continues to show some convection developing along a weak frontal boundary as it moves through the area. We are currently outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center in the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across eastern AR, north MS, and far southwest TN. The 12Z CAMs have continued to back-off on the severe weather threat, with lapse rates remaining fairly lackluster. MLCAPE values will likely approach 1,000 J/kg for some by the afternoon, giving way to at least a small potential for some stronger storms. If storms were able to tap into this potential, a few summertime-esque, strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out primarily in the afternoon to early evening hours. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern, with some small hail. A few showers may linger behind the frontal boundary into the overnight hours, with clearing expected by Monday morning.

By Monday through generally the remainder of the work week, upper- level northwesterly flow will build in and will persist across the region. This will likely keep dry conditions in place for the foreseeable future with high temperatures in the mid 70s Monday and generally fluctuating between the upper 70s to mid 80s through Friday. A weak frontal boundary will approach the region along a shortwave overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, however, given the dry air at the surface PoPs remain negligible and we doubt any of the moisture would be able to reach the surface. The one benefit of this boundary will be that it will temporarily knock our temperatures back a few degrees into the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday. Despite this brief respite, guidance is suggesting a stark warm-up heading into next weekend as high pressure slides into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions continue across the airspace ahead of some TSRA/SHRA that will move in this afternoon and evening. Impacts to terminals remain uncertain with generally low confidence in location and timing. Have included PROB30s for the most likely times currently for all four TAF sites. Some lingering showers may persist into the overnight hours, with conditions clearing areawide by tomorrow morning. Winds will remain somewhat variable through the remainder of today, finally settling to northeasterly by 12Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers will move through the Mid-South this afternoon into this evening, bringing some much needed rainfall to the area. For the remainder of the week, dry conditions will persist with minRH values falling below 40% each day. While some borderline fire danger concerns could arise if minRH values dip lower, wind speeds will generally remain less than 10 mph each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.