textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- A prolonged period of dangerous heat continues, with an areawide Heat Advisory in effect from Wednesday through Saturday.

- Heat index values will frequently exceed 100 degrees, and limited overnight cooling will significantly increase heat stress.

- Isolated showers are possible Thursday and Friday afternoon, with the highest chances along and just west of the Tennessee River.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Strong ridging will continue through the foreseeable future across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, including the Mid- South. Radiosonde observations from Tuesday evening show dry, subsident profiles with the ridge at 596 dm over central Tennessee with models supporting the idea that the ridge will maintain this strength through the end of the week. Therefore, expect daily temperatures to approach, if not exceed, 100 F with heat indices of upwards of 105 - 110 F through Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be slightly "drier" than earlier this summer, around 70 F during peak heating, which will keep heat indices below 110 F in most areas. So, a Heat Advisory has been issued starting from Wednesday at 11 AM CDT through Saturday evening. Additionally, the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard are not expected to impact the Mid-South with the majority of model guidance keeping the weakening surface low to our west before being filled in by the broader ridging over the southern CONUS.

Ensembles seem to be trending towards the continuation of the ridging over the Mid-South beyond Saturday, but also begin to show signs of increasing model variability at this point in the forecast. Some members attempt to bring weaker (588 dm) heights west of the Tennessee River that could lead to increased afternoon shower activity, but this signal is still too weak to warrant any expectation of relief from the heat. So, don't get your hopes up about cooler weather in the near future with a growing consensus that dangerous heat may stick around into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

High pressure ensures VFR conditions and light winds across all terminals. There is high confidence in greater than 5 knot tailwinds at MEM for the evening push.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Persistent ridging will lead to a continuation of hot afternoon conditions through the remainder of this week and into next weekend. Enough humidity will remain to keep minimum relative humidity values above 30%, but some areas may still drop below 40% through the next week. Regardless, weak surface pressure gradients are forecast to hold 20 foot winds below 5 knots across the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.