textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Cooler and drier weather is expected through the weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs creeping into the low 80s.

- Wetter conditions will arrive on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms forecast through Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A cold front currently sits over the Gulf coast with below- average temperatures across the majority of the CONUS. Aloft, a large upper trough remains over the northeastern CONUS and eastern Canada with a stronger belt of zonal flow over the southeastern CONUS. High pressure will settle in and maintain the cooler temperatures through this weekend as a shortwave on the southern periphery of the longer-wave trough moves east of the region. Cooler temperatures will then be reinforced across the Mid-South with high temperatures reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s today and into the lower 70s Sunday. Conditions will also remain dry as the with PWATs below the 50th percentile and subsidence aloft.

Troughing is forecast to stay over the northeastern portion of the continent into early next week with more of a split flow regime forming throughout the CONUS. A cutoff low over the western CONUS will eventually begin to flatten out, overspreading zonal subtropical westerlies into the Mid-South by the middle of the week. High pressure will slide east in response, returning southerlies back into the region alongside higher moisture. By Tuesday afternoon, 60+ F dewpoints are forecast to make their way up the Mississippi River Delta as far north as the Missouri Bootheel. A frontal boundary will be near the region to our north, interacting with the higher quality moisture, and producing our next chances for precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening over the western half of the region. The coverage of storms is uncertain as forecast soundings show a capping inversion, which would be difficult to remove in the absence of a more amplified upper system. In addition, instability looks skinny with minimal upper cooling. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible but the overall severe threat looks limited Tuesday.

The front to the north on Tuesday will struggle to make it south through the region into Wednesday with a quasi-stationary front expected north of I-40. To its south, a warm, moist air mass will be in place with mid to upper 60 F dewpoints and PWATs around 2" (95th+ percentile). Both deterministic and ensemble guidance shows gradual amplification of an upper trough as the zonal westerlies begin to phase with a shortwave trough moving through the Rockies. The timing will be such that a closed, more amplified wave appears unlikely, but enough amplification will occur for the broad deepening of surface low along the front and enhanced 925 - 850 mb southerlies. As surface pressure lowers, both isentropic ascent over the quasi-stationary front and surface convergence will develop showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. With PWATs so high, forecast soundings show a very moist-adiabatic profile, limiting MLCAPE to 500 - 1000 J/kg along the front, steadily increasing with southerly extent. Therefore, heavy rainfall rates are possible with the threat for localized flash flooding, especially along the stationary front where convective rains will be able to fall for several hours. A severe threat can also not be ignored as the stronger low-level winds do appear to enlarge low-level hodographs enough for a tornado threat. The front will begin to transition into a cold front through the overnight hours Wednesday, pushing east and bringing rain and thunderstorm chances with it. At sunrise Thursday, most areas will be dry with the potential for a few showers over northeast Mississippi. As of right this morning's model guidance, the main axis of heaviest rains sits along and north of I-40 with anywhere from 2" - 3" of rain and the potential for locally heavier amounts.

Dry weather will still return Thursday as the upper trough exits to our east, bringing surface high pressure in its wake. Temperatures will cool Thursday with temperatures expected to climb into the 60s and low 70s, rebounding into the 70s by Friday. Gradual warming will continue through the end of the period with dry weather expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites. Gusty NW winds will become light tonight, then veer SSW and increase to 6-10 kts on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

RH values through this weekend will hover near or slightly below 35%, but fuel moisture and light 20 ft winds preclude any fire weather concerns . Humidity and rain chances will increase early next week as a cold front approaches.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.