textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Slightly cooler conditions will be in place on Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Additional rain chances return for Wednesday through Friday, though uncertainty remains in the precise timing and location of showers and storms.

- The upcoming weekend will feature summertime heat and humidity with highs in the 90s by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Dry conditions are anticipated Tuesday as the Mid-South sits underneath northwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. By Wednesday, southerly surface winds will transport hot and humid air back into the Mid-South. This, combined with an upper level disturbance, will increase our rain chances by the afternoon hours. Guidance suggests an MCS developing near Oklahoma / Arkansas Wednesday. We have low confidence in its evolution and southern extent, though a glancing blow of damaging winds is possible for east-central Arkansas. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Wednesday remains warranted.

Rain chances will linger through Thursday and Friday as multiple upper level disturbances trek across the region. Anomalously high precipitable water values will create efficient rainfall rates each day, leading to a growing localized flooding threat. As for severe weather, joint probabilities for overlapping ingredients remain less than 15 percent. Instead, expect typical summertime convection with gusty winds and small hail.

Heat and humidity will build into the Mid-South this weekend as upper level ridging moves into the region. Long range guidance has a 597 dam ridge parked over central Kentucky by early next week with high temperatures soaring into the mid 90s. Should these trends hold, a return to heat products looks increasingly likely.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24-30 hours as a weak ridge builds across the Mid-South. Low stratus and reduced visibility are possible late tonight at TUP and MKL due to abundant low-level moisture and light winds, though confidence remains too low for prevailing ceilings. Northwest winds will shift northeast tomorrow, remaining light at 7 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Recent wetting rains will preclude fire weather concerns on Tuesday. For the end of the week, MinRH values above 40% and daily bouts of showers and storms will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.