textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide Saturday as heat indices in excess of 105F are expected.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through at least early next week, though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The forecast remains largely a rinse and repeat as hot and humid conditions linger as we head into the holiday weekend. The ridge that has brought a week's worth of heat indices in excess of 105F will continue to deamplify east as weak troughing begins to set in across the Middle Mississippi Valley. As such, heat indices this weekend will be closer to the 105F mark versus the 110F mark that we have witnessed over the past several days. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect areawide through Saturday evening. NBM remains pretty optimistic with increased convective coverage Sunday as a weak surface front and shortwave troughing begin to influence our forecast area. However, CAMs are not as optimistic with a more isolated nature. The areawide Heat Advisory from Saturday may need to be extended into Sunday evening in the next forecast package, pending shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances, peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours, will exist this weekend and into next workweek as the aforementioned ridge continues to deamplify, aided by peak daytime heating. As this is a persistent forecast, a continuation of no real upper-level support for upscale growth of storms will exist, as they remain more diurnally driven. Forecast PWATs remain in the 1.8-2.1" range, nearing the 75th percentile for this time of the year. Therefore, any pop-up afternoon thunderstorms will have the capability to produce a localized flash flooding threat as we remain in this humid airmass. Isolated microbursts, as seen over the past several days, in this moist, summer-time pattern could also produce damaging wind gusts each afternoon and into early evening.

As we move through next workweek, weak troughing will continue to push over the Mississippi Valley as a subtropical ridge begins to build over the southern Rockies. As troughing continues to set in, temperatures will begin to edge closer to normal with highs in the lower 90s. Though, as moisture remains over the Mid-South, due to embedded shortwave perturbations, dewpoints are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s. Triple digit heat indices will likely be witnessed through much of next week. Compared to this past week, however, we will not have an upper-level ridge centered over us or greatly influencing the eastern CONUS, thus helping to continue to break down our ongoing heatwave. Depending on how the aforementioned subtropical ridge influences us here in the eastern CONUS, putting us into more of a northwest flow regime or more of a zonal flow regime, will influence overall precipitation chances late week. Some potential good news: the latest CPC 8-10 day temperature outlook has us only leaning 30- 40% above normal compared to our 80-90% for this past week.

AEH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours underneath high pressure aloft. Peak heating will aid in spotty shower and storm development after 18Z, necessitating PROB30 groups at all sites through early evening. A few CAMs are beginning to pick up on additional precipitation moving into the area overnight. However, confidence is too low at this time to include in TAFs. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light and variable.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally light . Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.