textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Summer heat will return to the Mid-South with highs in the low to middle 90s from Thursday into next week.

- As humidity levels rise, heat indices will climb to near or slightly above Heat Advisory criteria beginning Friday across the Delta southwest of Memphis and expanding across the Mid-South by early next week.

- A low chance (20-30%) of rain and thunderstorms will return to northern portions of the Mid-South by Friday and overspread the remainder of the region Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Summer heat will return to the Mid-South with little in the way of organized rainfall over the next week.

The cutoff low over Georgia is beginning to dissipate and lift slowly north. Upper ridging nosing in from the Southern Plains, combined with weak surface high pressure, will produce mostly benign weather across the Mid-South today. There is a low chance (<10%) of a shower or thunderstorm near the Alabama/Mississippi border or along the Tennessee River. Temperatures will climb a couple of degrees warmer this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s on Thursday and likely reach those levels each day well into next week. Meanwhile, humidity levels will slowly increase over the next couple of days as light southerly winds develop and dewpoints climb back into the 70s. The Delta region southwest of Memphis will threaten to hit Heat Advisory criteria as early as Friday, with much of the Mid-South potentially reaching criteria by early next week. School is back, but summer is not over. Remember your heat safety guidelines like staying hydrated, taking breaks when working outside, and checking the back seat.

A broad upper trough moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will extend south into the Mid-South and bring a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. After this weak trough moves through, and the upper ridging re-establishes itself by Sunday, expect a summertime pattern of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day next week with hot and humid conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Weak surface high pressure will keep winds light across the Midsouth with only daytime cumulus expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. Humidity levels will slowly increase through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40%, with 20 ft winds generally remaining at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.