textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- High temperatures will warm through Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- The mild temperatures will precede a strong cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could occur along the cold front over northwest Tennessee. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

- Much cooler temperatures will prevail from Thursday into the weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Late morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a weak southern branch upper level trough over the Red River Valley. Up north, the main northern branch of westerlies extended from the Pacific Northwest to the Mid-Atlantic coast.

For the remainder of today, mid and high clouds will stream into the region, ahead of the southern branch trough. This trough will shear eastward tonight, in advance of a northern branch trough approaching from the north. A few high-based showers will be possible southwest of Memphis toward morning. Otherwise, this southern branch trough will have little impact on the Midsouth.

The main feature of concern remains cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This front will pass through in tandem with a northern branch shortwave. While surface-based CAPE will be more than adequate (800 J/kg) for thunder over West Tennessee, the most favorable frontal convergence will set up north east of the forecast area, nearer to the Ohio River. Rain amounts over the Midsouth will prevail below 0.10 inch, and limited to areas east of the Mississippi River late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A second northern branch trough will dive south from the Upper Midwest on Thursday, reinforcing a longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. Under strong northwest flow aloft, steady surface pressure rises and steep low level lapse rates will keep wind speeds elevated over the Midsouth through Friday afternoon. Surface winds will finally diminish Friday night, as the upper flow deamplifies. A combination of light winds, clear skies and dry air will result in our first widespread hard freeze (low temps in the mid 20s), particularly east of the Mississippi River.

Despite shortwave ridging aloft, Saturday's high temperatures will average 10 degrees below normal, under increasing high clouds. These high clouds suggest Sunday morning won't be quite as cold as Saturday along and west of the Mississippi River.

Next week will bring a gradual warming trend. An upper ridge will transit the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley early in the week, followed by southwest flow aloft and returning rain chances late next week. By late next week, low temperatures may be as warm as this weekend's high temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. South to southwest winds will remain light this afternoon and tonight, increasing by midday tomorrow to around 10 kts with gusts approaching 20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Minimum relative humidity will moderate slightly on Wednesday, in advance of a strong cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected along the cold front, producing minimal chances of wetting rainfall east of the Mississippi River.

Much cooler air will settle into the Midsouth from Thursday into the early weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.