textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Elevated fire danger will persist through Friday, due to low relative humidity. Exercise caution and adhere to local burn bans.

- High temperatures will gradually warm through late week. Thursday and Friday will likely bring the warmest temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.

- Moisture from a possible tropical system in the Gulf may bring rain to the Midsouth this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A large upper level ridge will remain centered over the Great Basin region of the western U.S. through late week. This ridge will extend into the lower MS River Valley, while relatively strong northwest flow aloft extends from southwest Canada into the upper OH River Valley. The Midsouth will remain under the influence of the upper ridge through late week, resulting in no rainfall and high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. Through Friday, the main concern will remain low relative humidity in the afternoon, which will maintain elevated wildland fire danger. For the days 1-3, forecast dewpoints were heavily weighted toward CONSShort guidance, with minor input from the NBM.

Despite low daytime humidity, a warm front will lift into north MS late tonight, then stall prior to daybreak Wednesday. Areas of fog will be possible along and ahead of the warm front early in Wednesday morning. This shallow humid layer will mix out Wednesday afternoon.

For the weekend, current attention remains focused on Invest 92L in the southwestern Gulf. Latest NHC guidance places an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next seven days. 18Z/00Z global models and latest tropical model guidance tracks show moderately improved consensus, which lifts the system to the LA/MS coast, followed by a north/northeast movement thereafter. At this early time, the NBM chance PoPs for the weekend appear on track for the Midsouth. Please refer to the latest official NHC guidance regarding Invest 92L.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Mainly VFR and light winds (generally 5KT or less) through the next 24 hours.

A warm front will stall over north MS tonight. Light winds and increasing moisture along and south of this boundary could result in patchy fog in portions of west TN, mainly near the Tennessee River, and northeast MS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent over a good portion of the Midsouth today, accompanied by light 20-foot winds. Although afternoon relative humidity will remain low through Friday, a brief uptick in humidity will provide a chance of fog Wednesday morning. Moisture from a developing tropical system in the northern Gulf will bring a chance of wetting rains to the Midsouth this weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.