textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist through at least Saturday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances may begin to return next week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Another expansive stratus shield currently resides over the region this morning, very similar to Wednesday, with an upper shortwave trough now exiting to our east while ridging strengthens over the southern Plains. At the surface, northeasterlies will continue to advect cooler temperatures into the region. Advection in combination with cloud cover will therefore favor a cooler forecast today, especially in areas that don't see clouds mix out and erode as much, but satellite observation shows that much of the region is already beginning to see the stratus scatter out. In all, temperatures will likely climb into the low 80s across the region with portions of northern Mississippi potentially climbing into the upper 90s.

The ridge building over the southern Plains will then shift slightly east into this weekend, then weaken as an embedded shortwave rotates south into the Ohio River Valley around the west side of the upper low to our east. Consequently, temperatures will struggle to rise too far from their present levels into the weekend with afternoon highs generally hanging out in the middle 80s. In past forecasts, Sunday has been our next best chance at rainfall, but forecast trends have moved towards a dry forecast with this morning's NBM run displaying PoPs below 10% area wide. This is in conjunction with a trend towards ridging to remain somewhat amplified across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast. Into next week, southerly flow will return and bring a quick warming trend Monday and Tuesday. The hottest day of the forecast is increasingly looking to be Tuesday where NBM highs have a 50% - 70% chance to eclipse 90 degrees.

Beyond Tuesday, NBM guidance still shows a 40% - 50% chance of 90+ degree highs. However, the interquartile range for high temperatures jumps drastically to between 15 - 20 degrees during this period. The primary explanation for this increase in forecast uncertainty has to do with the interaction between Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific and a trough over the Rockies. Depending on this interaction, a surface cyclone may develop over the Plains, which has large implications on the weather after Tuesday next week. As of this morning, ensembles are split down the middle on either the two systems merging or Polo remaining out at sea through the end of the period. If the two systems are able to phase and produce a surface low pressure system, then the end of the forecast would trend towards more precipitation late in the forecast. Regardless, the specific details regarding exact temperatures and precipitation amounts after Tuesday are still extremely uncertain, but forecast variability should rise through this weekend, offering better insight as we approach next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A stratus deck remains in place across much of the Mid-South with weak CAA limiting the warmup that would promote mixing. A ridge will build in from the west this afternoon and overnight. Subsidence beneath the ridge should overpower the weakening CAA tonight, resulting in VFR conditions at MEM and JBR. Farther east, away from the influence of the ridge, confidence in VFR cigs are lower at MKL and TUP. Patchy fog is also possible at these eastern locations late tonight, but the ridge should finally result in VFR conditions at all sites by midday tomorrow. Prevailing winds will remain from the northeast, up to 8 kts today and below 5 kts tonight and tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

No major fire weather concerns through the period. Cooler temperatures will bring relative humidity levels above 40% through the period alongside light, northeasterly 20 foot winds. Wetting rains will be absent through much of the period with rains previously forecast on Sunday now looking less likely.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.