textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days. Today's temperatures have been dampened by increased cloud cover and scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage.

- Heat index values may approach 105 for some areas on Sunday, becoming more widespread by Monday. Heat Advisories will likely be warranted for portions of the Mid-South next workweek.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will return for some locations towards the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An overall "cooler" day is in play across the Mid-South with current temperatures largely in the 80s as a decaying MCV rotates just west of the Memphis metropolitan area. The latest 500mb analysis indicates a shortwave trough collocated with the aforementioned MCV. Taking a look at KNQA radar, it is currently depicting a few pop-up thunderstorms across many areas over the Mid-South with lift from the aforementioned shortwave. As the shortwave transverses our area and we move into the afternoon hours, when peak heating occurs, a slight uptick in shower and weak thunderstorm coverage is anticipated with our typical summer day. Overall coverage is expected to begin to slowly taper off after sunset as the mid-level feature begins to push further east and over into Nashville's area. As far as temperatures go, increased cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm coverage has resulted in us falling just shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105+F heat indices) today as highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Heading into the overnight hours, there is a decent signal for some patchy fog, especially in areas that see precipitation today and low-lying areas, as winds light and calm along a weak low- level inversion. Any fog that does form should burn off shortly after sunrise as winds begin to increase. Residual moisture and a few embedded shortwave perturbations will allow for very isolated shower coverage tomorrow morning, increasing in the afternoon hours as they become largely diurnally driven. Tomorrow also looks to be another cooler one as lingering cloud cover and the overall upper-level pattern remains much the same as today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Though some areas in the Delta Region may approach heat indices around 105F, confidence in widespread impacts are not anticipated, not warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory tomorrow. Monday on the other hand, will be a different story as the pattern aloft turns quasi-zonal as ridging begins to broaden over the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures will be increased with highs in the low 90s with increased dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s thanks to increased moisture and PWATs lingering around 1.8". NBM dewpoints may be slightly overdone, however, heat indices 105+F are anticipated across at least some locations here in the Mid-South, warranting a Heat Advisory.

The pattern won't change very much moving through midweek as the aforementioned ridge continues to broaden slightly over the southeastern CONUS and we remain in largely zonal flow aloft. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a near rinse and repeat of Monday, just a little warmer both days, potentially reaching the mid 90s by Wednesday. By the latter half of the week, ensembles begin to place us into more of a northwest flow regime aloft as dual upper- level troughs begin to dig, one over the Pacific Northwest and the other over the northern Great Lakes Region. As this transition occurs aloft, a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, however, how widespread coverage will be remains unresolved as this will greatly depend on where exactly the aforementioned upper-lows set up. One thing to note: how the latter half of next week plays out will largely influence temperatures as there is currently about a 5 degree spread. For now, we are heading into mid August so be prepared for warm and humid weather to linger.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A slow moving (MCV) convective complex will move across the area this afternoon resulting in enhanced convective coverage at all sites. Best timing for convective activity, especially at MEM and MKL, will be from 18-22Z with coverage beginning to decrease towards sunset. Light winds are expected tonight at terminals with the potential for patchy fog, especially at MKL and TUP. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday during peak heating, particularly at MKL, TUP, and perhaps MEM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Increased moisture and our typical summertime airmass will keep isolated to scattered rain chances in the forecast at least the weekend. As a result, fire weather concerns are expected to stay limited as minimum relative humidity values remain above 50% for the foreseeable future. Light 20 ft winds will also continue through the fire weather period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.