textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Early morning fog and patchy frost is expected over the next couple of mornings.

- Near-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail through midweek with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- A cold front will bring a cooldown late week, with crisp mornings and chilly conditions returning to the forecast into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Another chilly day is present across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear skies as a 1024mb high remains parked over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Taking a look at the upper-levels, weak northwest flow continues to build into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Dry air remains over the our forecast area keeping us bone-dry, meanwhile an upper- level low continues to rotate over the California Baja giving lift to showers and thunderstorms over southern Texas. As winds go calm overnight and ample radiational cooling occurs alongside narrow dewpoint depressions and clear skies, patchy fog is expected, especially in low-lying river areas. Early morning commuters should use caution on the roads before fog begins to burn off by mid-morning as mixing occurs. Some early morning frost may also be witnessed mainly over areas east of the Mississippi area where overnight lows drop into the 30s.

As we head into the workweek, a warming trend will begin with return flow ahead of weak upper-level troughing Tuesday. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As aforementioned troughing begins to push into the Middle Mississippi Valley from Southern Plains, it will begin to weaken and become an open wave, increasing our dewpoints, but not bringing enough moisture for precipitation Tuesday. Come late Wednesday into early Thursday, a surface low and deepening trough will begin pushing into the Upper-Mississippi Valley from the Midwest. This next system will bring ample moisture, increasing PWATs to around 1.1-1.2", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of the year. An upper-level jet will also begin to dip down over the Mid-South Wednesday ahead of this system. As these features move in, our best shot at precipitation over the next 7 days will exist Wednesday afternoon into evening. Due to uncertainty with the overall evolution of this trough and upper- level jet, shower and elevated thunderstorm chances remain 20- 40%.

An attendant cold front will also sweep the region Thursday bringing much cooler air behind it. Temperatures will begin to plummet behind this front as cool high pressure, nearly polar in nature, begins to push into the region. Thursday's forecast highs are in the upper 50s to lower 60s with Friday's highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Though we are still several days out, Friday looks to be pretty brisk as the upper-level pressure gradient behind this deepening trough begins to tighten. For now, be sure to have those coats handy late week and into the weekend. Saturday morning could also bring our first deep freeze of the season with deterministic lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and looking probabilistically, latest LREF and NBM guidance is hinting at a 60-85% chance of temperatures below freezing.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Dry continental surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over the next 30 hours. Light winds and VFR will prevail at the TAF sites.

The MKL, JBR and TUP TAFs include TEMPOs for minor VIS reductions in the predawn hours. Though not reflected in LAMP or NBM guidance, patchy fog over nearby agricultural land could affect the aforementioned TAF sites. Higher probabilities of fog are expected near non-TAF sites that are adjacent to bodies of water.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

High pressure will remain in place through the weekend with cool and dry conditions prevailing. Temperatures will begin to moderate into midweek with dry air remaining in place. Minimum relative humidity values may fall below 40% in a few locations, mainly over NE MS, Monday and Tuesday. Though a few light showers may occur Wednesday, no appreciable rainfall is forecast for the next 7 days. Therefore, increased fire danger might exist by the end of next week. Early morning fog is expected both Monday in areas mainly north of the TN and MS stateline.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.