textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- A largely dry weather pattern will persist through at least the weekend with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s.

- Isolated thunderstorms chances return as early as Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A pleasant day is underway with temperatures in the 70s under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm a few degrees warmer than the last few days as an upper level ridge expands across the area. The hottest temperatures will be felt in our southwest zones, around 90 degrees, with upper 70s and 80s elsewhere. The ridge will not be able to amplify over the Mid-South due to a deep trough off the coast of the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for the end of September generally in the mid to upper 80s. Areas in closest proximity to the trough, have the best chance at remaining near normal.

Due to the region being sandwiched between the ridge and the low, benign weather conditions will persist through the weekend. Patchy to locally dense fog could occur however each night as dewpoint depressions sink under light winds and mostly clear skies. The next large scale pattern change to affect the region will be the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Polo. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Guidance is not resolving this system's evolution well in the long term. The most likely scenario amongst current guidance is Polo absorbing into a cut-off low with an additional system and stretching a large cold front across much of the southern US. This would be our first chance at widespread rainfall on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Current severe weather probabilities from the LREF are less than 20%, but this will need to be monitored as the system works its way onshore.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites over the next 30 hours as broad surface high pressure dominates the region. Patchy fog is possible near TUP tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A weak upper-level ridge positioned over the region will maintain dry and warm conditions through the weekend. Afternoon minimum relative humidity (RH) values will hover between 35% and 45%, but 20-foot surface winds will remain consistently light at under 10 mph, preventing any critical fire-spread conditions. Fog potential will be light and localized, primarily restricted to early morning patchy fog along low-lying river basins and lakes.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.