textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 559 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- High temperatures will warm through Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- The mild temperatures will precede a strong cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur on Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north and east of the Memphis area.

- Much cooler temperatures will prevail from Thursday into the weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

An upper level low continues to spin over Texas with a leading shortwave digging over southern Arkansas. Due to a lack of low level moisture, and overall weakness of the wave, no precipitation is reaching the surface near the Mid-South this evening. Light reflectivity returns are present over south- central Louisiana and Central Texas. Cirrus continues to stream across north Mississippi, southeast Arkansas and southwest Tennessee. This deck of cirrus should disrupt fog potential in the aforementioned areas, but patchy to locally dense fog could develop across the rest of the area. Areas west of the Mississippi River are more likely to fog this evening, but expect river basins elsewhere to produce steam fog.

The aforementioned upper low over Texas will cross the Mid-South through Wednesday, allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s and perhaps return 60 degree dewpoints. A deeper trough will emerge from the Rockies concurrently, and take a dive southeasterly towards the region. It will stretch a cold front to sweep across the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory is not anticipated at this time despite a tightening pressure gradient. As we have lift and shear heading this way, SPC has highlighted northern portions of the Mid-South in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Based on probabilities from the REFS, this is predominantly shear driven. Probabilities of severe thunderstorm ingredients (>500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear) are low to medium (20-60%). These probabilities drastically decline to 10-30% for >750J/kg of CAPE. Deep, moist convection seems unlikely with PWs projected to be an inch or less (in the 75th percentile for this time of year), but the shear profile remains impressive enough to warrant the extra attention.

While the cold front will sweep through rather quickly, subsidence will lag behind. High pressure will encompass the region by Friday evening and plummet temperatures near or below freezing, with eastern areas of the region likely (20-50% chance) to fall below 28F. The cold should be short lived as an upper ridge begins to build from the west.

DNM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. The latest REFS data indicate a low chance (15-30%) of fog mainly along and north of I-40 late Wednesday night. However, confidence remains too low to include mention at any of the TAF sites at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A warming trend under high pressure will bring pleasant autumn conditions with daytime highs rising from into the low to mid 70s ahead of an approaching cold front late Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity (RH) values will dip into the 40% to 50% range during peak heating, but light transport winds and sufficient moisture recovery will keep conditions well outside of critical thresholds. Nocturnal radiational cooling under calm-to-light winds will support nightly and early morning patchy fog, especially in river valleys and low-lying drainage areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.