textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will arise Monday afternoon through much of the week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Yet another beautiful, fall-like day is progressing across the Mid-South with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Surface high pressure is expected to remain through the upcoming work week, with a weak upper-level ridge aloft eventually giving way to generally northwesterly flow by the middle of the week. A dry forecast will continue as a result, with no precipitation in the forecast for the foreseeable future. As far as temperatures go, temperatures will gradually warm and return to above-normal by the middle of the week. Expect for high temperatures to be back into the 70s on Monday, rising to the upper 70s to 80s Wednesday onward. Overnight lows will remain around to just below normal though, generally in the 40s with some locations creeping back into the 50s by Wednesday morning. The only concern weather wise for the upcoming week will be the threat for elevated fire danger. With the little rainfall we have received, persistent drought conditions, and relatively low relative humidity, outdoor burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged. Please heed to any local burn bans through the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR. No aviation concerns this period. Could easily go with 1- line TAFs, but added a couple of lines for minor changes in wind speed and direction.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will likely remain between 30% and 40% through Sunday afternoon, falling below 30% for many locations Monday afternoon onward for much of the Mid-South. Despite generally light winds in the forecast, 10- hour fuels remain between 9% and 11%. As such, Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected to be needed Monday through at least the middle of the week for portions of the Mid-South.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.