textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid-South this afternoon, with periods of brief, heavy downpours.

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity return on Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, with heat indices of 105 or greater expected through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A rather soggy and humid day is progressing across the Mid-South, with a stationary boundary lingering with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. PWAT values remain between 2" to 2.5", with most of the shower/thunderstorm coverage along and south of the I-40 corridor. A few embedded thunderstorms have led to some periods of heavy rainfall, so there will be a low chance for a localized flooding threat across southern TN into northeast MS through the afternoon hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southeast. Given the cloud coverage, temperatures have struggled so far today with much of the area remaining in the 70s to low 80s thus far. A few locations along the MS River and our far south could approach heat index values of 105, but I do not think this will be prolonged enough to need a Heat Advisory in these locations. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected to move out overnight. With sky conditions slowly clearing, light winds, and generally low dew point depressions, we will need to watch for some fog potential especially near the TN River overnight into tomorrow morning. Any fog that does develop will quickly mix out following sunrise.

Into tomorrow, oppressive heat and humidity will return to the Mid-South with an upper-level ridge continuing to strengthen over the Rockies into the Plains. With the high confidence in heat indices of at least 105 or greater for much of the area and overnight temperatures remaining in the upper 70s, opted to run heat headlines from Sunday through at least Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning area will be generally the western two-thirds of the area, with a Heat Advisory encompassing locations along and just west of the TN River and into northeast MS. An expansion of the warning area could be needed Monday and / or Tuesday, but will address the need closer to each day. Regardless, prepare for a return of some oppressive heat on Sunday through at least Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Outside of the oppressive heat, CAM guidance continues to show a decaying MCS through the Ohio River Valley late Sunday into early Monday. The location of this MCS has been mostly to our east, but a few CAMs do want to bring some PoPs to our far eastern counties. Given the run to run variability and overall little confidence, opted to leave negligible PoPs in for now from the NBM, but this will be something to watch into future forecast packages.

By Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will move through the region, allowing for temperatures and humidity to back off ever so slightly. While high temperatures will likely remain in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week, dew point temperatures will fall back to the upper 60s. Some locations across the delta regions may need a Heat Advisory on Wednesday before the frontal boundary arrives, but uncertainty remains. With a typical, summertime pattern finishing out next week, we could see a pattern shift with increased PoPs into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A warm front extends from near TUP to JBR. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop primarily along and south of this boundary through the afternoon, with coverage decreasing after sunset. West to southwest winds at 4-8 kts will persist through tomorrow.

Abundant moisture and light winds may support patchy fog development near MKL tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph. After today's rain, rain chances will remain very low through at least the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ004- 021-022-052>055-090>092.