textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Dry conditions will return to the Mid-South on Sunday and last through Tuesday. Well above-normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through at least Thursday.

- A cold front will reach the Mid-South Friday, leading to pleasant and fall-like conditions next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Morning satellite imagery depicts the amalgamation of former Isaias and an upper trough over the central Appalachian Mountains moving northeast. Drier air has managed to filter into the Mid- South behind this system, leading to clear and precipitation-free conditions throughout the region Sunday. Ample sunshine and light winds will allow for warmer temperatures with highs expected to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s through this afternoon with lows 60s.

Warming temperatures will continue to build into the region through the early part of this upcoming week as upper ridging increases in amplitude behind the trough. Highs are forecast to rise into the low 90s through the middle of the week. Weather will be dry as well as no systems or notable surface boundaries move through the region during this time. However, surface moisture will increase with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s as southerlies return Monday and Tuesday, leading to less pleasant heat than we have had recently.

By late Wednesday, the returning moisture will begin to interact with a surface front just north of the region, potentially signaling the next best chance for precipitation in the Mid-South into Thursday morning. Medium-range guidance currently depicts an axis of MUCAPE (~1000 J/kg) stretching from central Oklahoma east into the Ohio River Valley. Most of the instability looks to remain north of the Mid-South, leading to a lower coverage with southern extent and a decrease in any severe weather impacts. So, for now expect isolated to scattered convection across the northern third of the region Wednesday evening through Thursday before the instability wanes.

An upper trough will begin to dig into the northern Plains and Midwest Friday with an accompanying surface cold front. Current guidance points to the air mass behind the cold front to be more polar in origin, advecting fall-like conditions across much of the CONUS. The front is expected to reach the Mid-South Friday and will clear the region by Saturday morning with little to no precipitation expected upon its arrival. Temperatures will then drop with highs on Saturday in the 60s and low 70s amidst mostly clear conditions. Additionally, overnight temperatures in this type of air mass will likely drop into the 40s in most areas with the potential for areas across the Tennessee River Valley to drop below 40. In all, it appears increasingly likely that a pattern change will bring a shot of truly fall-like weather into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR will continue through the period, with high pressure aloft. Relatively deep mixing by mid-morning Monday will likely result in a few gusts at MEM and JBR. Otherwise light winds expected after sunset Monday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Dry air has returned to the region behind Isaias' departure. Minimum relative humidity values will therefore drop through Monday with values below 40 percent starting today, dropping to around or below 30 percent Monday for most areas. However, light 20-foot winds and low coverage of relative humidity values below 30 percent will lead to relatively low fire danger. Southerly flow will return Tuesday, bringing higher moisture back into the region and increasing relative humidity values around or above 40 percent. This pattern will remain through the end of the week before a cold front passes through the Mid-South Friday, leading to cooler, drier weather next weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.