textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- A warming trend begins this weekend with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Heat headlines will likely return by the middle of next week.

- There's a low chance of isolated showers on Wednesday. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The Mid-South will begin a warming trend after an overall pleasant day with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Upper-level ridging, currently centered over the Four Corners Region, will begin broadening east Saturday with highs spanning the 90s Saturday and the entire area seeing readings in the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Luckily, dry air from the Midwest will persist over the region keeping dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This will create a hot and dry feel, as opposed to a hot and humid one, with heat indices in the lower 100s through early next week. LREF guidance continues to paint low probabilities (<15%) for heat indices 105+F both Monday and Tuesday, likely keeping us away from Heat Advisory criteria through early week.

Moving into midweek will likely be a different story as the aforementioned upper ridge continues to broaden over the Mississippi Valley. GFS and EWCF solutions continue to hint at a very weak upper-low beginning to retrograde across the Mississippi Valley as Gulf moisture begins to infiltrate. Dewpoints look to begin increasing into the low to mid 70s, in turn, allowing us to begin flirting with 105+F heat indices. We will evaluate heat headlines on a day-to-day basis, as heat index values will depend significantly on dewpoint temperatures through the end of the workweek. Isolated (20%) chances for precipitation enter the forecast Wednesday into early Thursday with increased moisture. Though any precipitation that does fall will not be appreciable and will only result in increased humidity across the Mid-South. Otherwise, we'll remain largely dry over the next seven days. Looking ahead, the latest 8-14 day outlook has us highlighted with a 70-80% chance of above-normal temperatures through the first week and a half of September.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Broad surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region. Confidence is high for VFR conditions through the period. LAMP and NBM guidance support a very low probability of fog tonight; while the boundary layer remains favorable for radiational cooling, the airmass is sufficiently dry to preclude fog development. Winds will remain light and variable through mid- afternoon before shifting to the southeast. Guidance suggests near-calm winds tomorrow night at all sites, consistent with the weakening pressure gradient.

AC3

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Heading into the weekend, there is a medium to high (50-70%) chance of minimum relative humidity values falling below 35 percent as dry air continues to filter into the region. 20 foot winds are expected to remain less than 10 mph through the weekend, but fuels will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger heading into next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.