textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues to bring some light showers across the Tennessee River Valley, with any lingering moisture moving out by Sunday morning.

- Dry conditions will return to the Mid-South on Sunday and last through Tuesday. Well above-normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through at least Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Mostly cloudy conditions will persist across the Mid-South into the overnight hours as the remnants of Isaias move through the TN River Valley. Latest radar scans do still show some light rain along the TN River and across northeast MS, which may linger into the early morning hours on Sunday. Otherwise, Isaias will quickly pull northeastward through the day on Sunday, with clearing expected across much of the Mid-South. A much drier airmass will quickly move into the area through the day on Sunday, with temperatures rebounding quickly for the majority of the area. Outside of some temperatures near 80 along the TN River where some cloudiness may persist, the vast majority of the area will rise into the mid to upper 80s by the afternoon. By Monday, high pressure will begin to develop to our south, with humidity levels beginning to creep back up by Tuesday. Through the first half of the work week, high temperatures will be in the low 90s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the middle of October. For further reference, the current high temperature records for Memphis Monday through Wednesday are 92, 92, and 90 respectively. Our forecast high temperature each day would either be close to or exceed these values. A similar trend can be noted at Jackson, Jonesboro, and Tupelo as things currently stand. So, potential record breaking heat has found its way back to the Mid-South unfortunately.

By Wednesday, a weak shortwave will pass around the aforementioned high pressure system, with the potential to bring some precipitation briefly back to northern portions of the Mid- South. This could play spoiler to the aforementioned high temperatures. However, given the set-up, confidence is not that high in seeing any meaningful precipitation for most of the area. Locations north of the I-40 corridor could see up to half an inch of precipitation at this point. By Thursday into the back half of the week, all eyes will turn to the west as a low pressure system moves off of the Rockies. While the Mid-South will likely remain warm (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) through Thursday, significant uncertainty arises Friday into next weekend. Guidance is suggesting a fairly potent upper-level system will move across the eastern portion of the U.S., although timing and how far south it initially reaches will play a significant role in our weather pattern next weekend. GEFS solutions are favoring a merge between the upper-level pattern and a closed low off the Rockies, with a deeper trough passing through the Mid-South bringing a significant cool down. ENS guidance is a bit more split, with the trough not deepening until further east, bringing less of a cool down. Regardless, guidance is trending towards more seasonable temperatures returning next weekend. Keep those fingers crossed if you have been wishing for fall-like weather!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Most of the impacts from Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias have pushed east of our airspace. Light showers may impact TUP/MKL overnight, but confidence was not high enough to mention in TAFs. MVFR ceilings continue to filter into sites along the Tennessee River impacting both MKL and TUP through the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. North/northwest winds will shift more south/southwest by the end of the period at 10 kts or less.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Dry air will begin to filter into the Mid-South behind Isaias on Sunday, with minimum relative humidity values falling below 40% west of the MS River. While dry conditions will be present, wind speeds will generally remain light enough for there to not be any major fire danger concerns. On Monday, dry conditions will be a bit more widespread, with minimum relative humidity values potentially falling below 40%. Across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel, wind speeds may approach to exceed 10 mph, which may lead to borderline fire danger concerns developing Monday afternoon. Beyond Tuesday, minimum relative humidity values will likely remain at or above 35%.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.