textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Dangerous heat continues through Tuesday evening, with high temperatures expected to reach the upper 90s; the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for the entire region.

- A cold front will move through Tuesday evening, bringing a risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

- Conditions will trend drier and slightly cooler late this week as the front clears, followed by a return of heat for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A hot and humid day is underway as of 11 AM with air temperatures already in the upper 80s and lower 90s with triple digit heat index values. Expect temperatures to continue to rise this afternoon, into the mid to upper 90s, as ridging amplifies. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across north Mississippi, along a shortwave from the tropical airmass in the Gulf. While not anticipating any severe thunderstorms with this activity, hefty downpours are likely in any development.

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the summer as upper 90s are expected across the entire region. Areas along and west of the river have low, but still notable, probabilities of 100F or higher air temperatures Tuesday afternoon. A few additional counties will likely need to be added to the Extreme Heat Warning for tomorrow. This amount of heat will aid in very steep low level lapse rates as well as SBCAPE. An approaching frontal boundary will sink south and spark scattered thunderstorms in its wake and tap into this very unstable, tropical airmass. The better height falls look to dive over southeast Kentucky into Middle Tennessee, but with moisture and lift, a strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and torrential rainfall would be the primary threats. The RRFS simulated radar is much more robust in coverage, but has similar timing to the other CAMs, with storms firing on the KY/TN border between 4-6 PM. Would not expect the severe weather window to go beyond 2 AM, but showers and thunderstorms will likely continue until near sunrise Wednesday across north Mississippi. Storms are expected to be progressive and move swiftly through the region. Due to projected storm speed, the 90th percentile QPF through Thursday morning is less than an inch.

Once the cold frontal boundary clears the region, subtle northwest flow aloft will filter in drier and cooler conditions. Temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s prevail through the end of the work week, which is leaning slightly below normal for the latter half of July. Unfortunately, subtle upper level ridging will build in from the west for the weekend. This will warm temperatures back up into the 90s area wide by Sunday. The NBM does bring medium to high probabilities of triple digit heat index values making a return for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. Long term guidance favors a deep, upper trough over Quebec which will strengthen northwest flow aloft and could keep the Mid-South in a troughing pattern to close out July.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the current TAF period. Scattered -TSRA will move through the area this afternoon, although confidence is low. Have included mentioned at MEM as VCTS and at TUP, where there are slightly higher probabilities, as a PROB30. Otherwise, variable winds will become S after 00Z, remaining around or below 5 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Light 20-ft winds and minimum RH values remaining above 40% will keep fire weather concerns minimal through the period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ007-010-011- 020.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>006-008-009- 012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.