textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist across the Mid-South through Tuesday evening, with heat indices peaking between 110 and 115 degrees.

- Seasonal temperatures and reduced humidity arrive by midweek, offering relief from the extreme heat.

- The forecast remains mostly dry apart from shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

An upper ridge axis currently sits over the Rockies and Desert Southwest with northwest flow aloft across the Midwest down to the Gulf. Normally this pattern would bring a cold front down to cool the region, but instead we have been faced with a multi-day heat wave. With no front or meaningful cloud cover expected in the next 24 hours, dangerous heat is forecast to continue Tuesday with heat index values in excess of 110 F across the entire Mid- South. A few showers could occur tonight in association with decaying convection from the north, but any rain will be negligible in both amounts and impacts to Tuesday's heat.

By Tuesday evening, an upper wave, produced by overnight convection across the High Plains, will propagate into the Ozarks. CAMs go on to produce a few showers as this feature moves into the region through the early evening. As the night progresses, CAMs are in general agreement that convective coverage will pick up with locally heavy rainfall along an axis extending from northern Arkansas into north-central Mississippi. As of right now, rainfall totals look to only approach 1.0" in most areas with locally heavier totals possible under stronger areas of rainfall. Fortunately for us, this will mark the beginning of a cooldown that is expected to last the rest of the forecast period.

Behind the weak wave Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the synoptic troughing across the eastern CONUS will finally drag down more northerly flow. This will act to help the area of surface high pressure to our north move far enough south to bring cooler air into the region. High temperatures will drop to around 90 F. Heat index values will drop to around or below 100 F in most areas, aside from the Mississippi River Delta in Arkansas and Mississippi where heat index values may still reach 105+. Beyond Wednesday, this pattern looks likely to hold with the upper ridge over the western CONUS retrograding further west with the axis of stronger northwesterly flow moving westward along with it.

Given the cooler air that will settle in over the region, a baroclinic zone will form along a stationary boundary through the Mid-South, albeit relatively weak. Multiple medium- to long-range models show a lee surface cyclone propagating eastward through the Middle Mississippi River Valley, bringing another shot of rain Friday and into Saturday. Some areas could see locally heavy rainfall associated with diurnally driven convection. However, the exact extent of the heavier rainfall totals will be determined in the coming days as forecast uncertainties in the timing, strength, and position of the surface low become better resolved. As of right now, 1.0" - 1.5" are most likely with heavier amounts confined near the Tennessee River Valley.

A cold front associated with the surface cyclone will pass by Sunday morning, ushering another round of cooler air and dry weather. Therefore, the cooling trend is expected to continue beyond this weekend and into next week. Many models keep residual upper troughing over the southern Mississippi River Valley early next week through the end of the period, marking a signal that the extent of the cooler temperatures may reach further into next week outside of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period. Light winds will become W winds between 6-9 kts on Tuesday. Model trends suggest a decaying MCS may move into the Mid-South late Tuesday night. There is low confidence in timing and impacts with this convective activity and will continue the VCSH at MEM for this issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.