textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11AM to 8PM Friday for portions of east Arkansas and north Mississippi. Heat index values will peak at 107 degrees.

- A transition to drier and cooler conditions is expected this weekend. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to exit the Mid-South this evening as a cold front slowly sinks into the region. A few of the CAMs depict redevelopment along this boundary overnight. However, increasing CIN and a worked over atmosphere will discourage any additional severe weather concerns. Instead, expect a few rumbles of thunder overnight with a potential for localized heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned front will continue its slow descent on Friday. Unfortunately, it won't move quick enough to keep heat headlines entirely out of our area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 8PM for portions of north Mississippi. Heat indices up to 107 degrees are anticipated. This weekend, temperatures will be much more bearable as drier and cooler air settles. By Sunday, highs will vary from the upper 80s near Kentucky to the mid 90s in north Mississippi. Heat headlines are not anticipated due to lower dewpoints.

Next week, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft as a strong upper level ridge centers over the Desert Southwest. Disturbances embedded within the outer periphery of this ridge will keep rain chances in the forecast almost daily. While the LREF paints a less than 20 percent chance of overlapping severe weather ingredients, summertime temperatures and persistent northwest flow cannot be ignored. This regime can produce mesoscale convective systems, posing a damaging wind threat. For now, the severe threat is low but this may change as we get closer to next week. Outside of rain chances, feels-like temperatures will remain below heat headline criteria with afternoon highs in the 90s.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed west and south of Memphis in the past hour. This activity is expected to remain mostly across these aforementioned areas but still warrants a PROB30 group at MEM through 9Z. Patchy fog may also develop at MKL overnight, reducing visibility down to IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the period. Light winds will increase to N/NE winds between 5-8 kts on Friday, then become light by Friday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A few areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out over north Mississippi tonight. Otherwise, expect increased moisture values and wetting rain chances to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011- 020>024.

TN...None.