textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Isolated light showers and periods of drizzle will occur early this morning, following a cold front that passed through the region Friday afternoon.

- The cold front may lift back north into northeast Mississippi today, with temperatures warming back into the 80s. The remainder of the Midsouth will see highs in the 70s. A few light rain showers will be possible today, mainly south of I-40.

- Fair and mild weather will prevail Monday and Tuesday, following the passage of a stronger cold front Sunday night. Highs in the early week will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday morning will likely see the coolest temperatures, with lows ranging from the upper 40s over parts of West Tennessee and the Missouri bootheel, to the lower 50s elsewhere.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Cloudy conditions will continue Saturday, as the southern branch of the upper jet brings mid and high level Pacific moisture into the Midsouth. A weak cold front passed through the region Friday afternoon, aided by convective outflow. Since then, north/northeast winds have prevailed and will continue to do so Saturday.

While more moderate temperatures are expected, humidity will linger until a stronger cold frontal passage late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This reinforcing cold front will coincide with a northern branch trough passage through the upper Midwest on Sunday. A modified continental polar airmass will bring noticeably lower humidity, and cooler overnight lows. Tuesday morning will see the surface pressure ridge settle into the Midsouth, setting up prime radiational cooling conditions. Lows will mainly range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some river valleys of West Tennessee could see lows in the mid 40s.

For the mid to late week periods, a large upper level ridge over the Southwest U.S. will expand eastward, displacing weak northwest flow over the Midsouth. The net result will be daytime highs warming well into the 80s (7 to 10 degrees above normal) with plenty of sunshine.

By next weekend, medium range guidance consensus begins to fade with respect to northern branch energy over the western CONUS. Closer to home, there is a signal in the GFS and ECMWF data for a weak easterly tropical wave along the Gulf coast, extending into the lower MS River Valley. Consensus aside, confidence is limited regarding this system bringing consequential rainfall to the Midsouth next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

IFR and low MVFR will continue overnight, with northeast surface flow and possible patchy drizzle. Expect improvement to above alternate fuel minimums / high MVFR to be slow on Saturday, under extensive midlevel cloudiness and with persistent northeast surface winds. Areas of IFR may reform late Saturday evening, particularly if patchy drizzle develops ahead of a weak shortwave trough as indicated by some of the global models.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Mild and humid conditions are expected today. The chances for wetting rainfall will be very low and limited mainly to north Mississippi. Similar conditions are expected early Sunday, but drier air will spread in behind a stronger cold front late Sunday afternoon and evening. Minimum relative humidity on Monday and Tuesday will drop to near 30 percent south of Interstate 40. No wetting rainfall is expected until at least next weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.