textproduct: Memphis
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
- Cool and dry conditions will be in place through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
- Rain chances return this weekend and persist into the middle of next week. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out each day.
DISCUSSION
(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
An Omega Block will form over the central United States today, allowing dry and cool air to filter into the Mid-South. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s through Thursday. A slight increase in temperatures will be evident on Friday as the Omega Block begins to break down and southwest flow builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Elevated moisture values will stream into the Mid-South this weekend, aided by the development of a shortwave over Texas. Given the presence of a dry air column, Saturday should remain mostly dry with greater rain chances manifesting on Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a messy synoptic pattern through the middle of next week, resulting in daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms. Organized severe weather is not anticipated during this time due to the absence of appreciable shear. However, SBCAPE values nearing 2000 J/kg will encourage a typical summertime pulse convection regime. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out each day with the main threats being gusty winds and small hail. Outside of showers and storms, temperatures will be near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Long range guidance keeps the Mid-South in a wet and warm pattern through the middle of June.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
VFR and light easterly winds will prevail through the next 30 hours, as dry midcontinental high pressure prevails.
AMD NOT SKED remains in effect for JBR due to an ASOS communications outage.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
MinRH will drop below 40 percent through Friday as dry air continues to filter into the Mid-South. However, fire weather concerns remain low during this time due to light 20 ft winds. Increased moisture and wetting rain chances return this weekend.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.
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