textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- A warm-up is expected Friday and into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s in some areas.

- Next week will feature daily rain chances, though organized severe weather is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A large upper level trough will continue to push over the eastern US today, placing the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Today will be the last day of cool temperatures as highs remain in the mid to upper 70s. Upper level ridging will build across central CONUS tomorrow, allowing warm and moist air to funnel back into the Mid-South. As a result, highs will range from the lower to upper 80s, with a few locations in the Mississippi Delta potentially reaching 90F. By late Friday evening, a shortwave will eject out of the Desert Southwest and approach the region. This feature may provide just enough lift to encourage a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly for areas along the TN/KY border. However, potential for this is low (<20%). Hot and humid conditions will persist through the weekend with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A change in weather patterns will begin next week as a shortwave trough pushes across the central Plains. There is slight model discrepancy regarding timing of rainfall in the Mid-South, but general consensus brings showers and a few thunderstorms to the region late Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances will continue throughout Tuesday, though severe weather is not anticipated due to poor upper level support. One thing to note is that temperatures on Tuesday are tricky to pinpoint due to the potential for precipitation. The latest NBM places a 10 degree spread among the 25th and 75th percentiles. The most likely scenario will be temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Rain chances will linger through the remainder of the week as several weak shortwaves impact the area. For now, LREF probabilities for overlapping severe weather ingredients remain less than 15% during this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF cycle. Surface high pressure will shift east this afternoon, allowing winds to veer southerly. Wind speeds will increase to 10-12 kts with gusts near 20 kts possible after 14/15Z Friday as the pressure gradient tightens.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated today due to 20 ft winds remaining less than 10 mph. Relative humidity will begin to increase on Friday with wetting rain chances returning next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.