textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday. While many areas will see little to no rainfall, the stronger storms will pose a threat of localized flash flooding, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of a few strong to severe storms exists on Monday for damaging wind gusts.

- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal temperatures, with highs in the low to mid-80s next Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Dense fog continues to spread west early this morning and has finally crossed the Mississippi River. A Dense Fog Advisory was hoisted for areas from the AL border all the way into eastern AR, including the metro Memphis area. Visibility will gradually improve this morning with generally dry weather through midday. Isolated diurnal convection is anticipated today, with coverage likely lower than that of yesterday. PoPs were adjusted today to account for the latest CAM trends, including keeping the Memphis area dry and highlighting the potential for evening convection.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Showers are expected to continue diminishing in coverage through tonight as instability wanes. High low-level humidity and weak surface winds do hint at fog potential through Sunday morning, but high clouds are expected to keep any fog isolated. Therefore, some areas of patchy fog are possible tonight, especially across northern Mississippi where current HREF guidance has pockets of 30% - 40% probabilities of visibility below 1/2 mile. There is the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, currently in south-central Missouri, to persist long enough to arrive in the western half of the region through tonight. However, confidence is low in this scenario as CAMs struggle to keep storms alive past 03z - 06z, which in combination with current radar and satellite trends, suggests storms will struggle in the coming hours.

The surface air mass is expected to continue being muggy with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s as a ridge axis remains parked over the Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. More afternoon convection is forecast tomorrow, similar to today, as MLCAPE values climb above 2000 J/kg in a weakly forced environment. Expect heavy downpours and gusty winds with stronger cells and a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage after sunset.

Fortunately, the upper pattern will become dislodged into Monday as an upper low over the Northeast begins to move south. Upper height falls will overspread the hot, humid air mass that has pervaded the region for the past two weeks through the day Monday. With this synoptic support, thunderstorms are once again forecast Monday afternoon and will likely be more widespread than the past few days. Additionally, better upper level dynamics and strong instability will let storms attain better organization, possibly growing into an MCS through the late afternoon and evening. At the minimum, forecast soundings show enough (25 - 30 knots) bulk shear will exist within 2000+ MLCAPE, suggesting the potential for some severe weather. As such, SPC has placed most of the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather for damaging wind gusts. Alongside the severe threat will be a limited flash flooding threat with PWATs between 1.75" - 2.00". There is the potential for early morning thunderstorms that would change the timing of the peak severe threat, but model guidance is still highly varied and is not yet within the CAM window to get a consensus from the HREF and REFS. So, expect changes to Monday's forecast in the next couple days as the HiRes window arrives.

On Tuesday the upper low will amplify and continue to swing south. A surface high will form over the Northeast and Great Lakes, pushing a cold front into the region. Temperatures will only marginally cool with highs falling into the low 80s and upper 70s. Luckily, dewpoints will drop towards 60 F, making afternoon weather both Tuesday and Wednesday much more bearable. A gradual warm up will then take over through the end of next week as southerly flow returns after the surface high slides southeast over the Atlantic coast. Thanks to ridging behind the upper low, the forecast also remains dry Tuesday through the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Widespread LIFR low clouds and fog are affecting an area from TUP to MEM this morning with visibility reduced to 1/4 mile in some areas. These conditions will persist through ~13-14Z and will gradually improve through the morning. Generally VFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon with only isolated diurnal convection through 00z. Confidence is too low to even include PROB30 groups during the daytime period. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for convection to move into the area from the northwest this evening. While some CAMs (and the NBM) highlight this potential, the flagship HRRR and RRFS models are much less impressive. The PROB30 group for JBR was retained, but no TSRA was included elsewhere at this time. Otherwise, winds will remain light through the period with another round of fog and low clouds anticipated again tonight. This is most likely to affect MKL/TUP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early next week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South through Monday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

A drier pattern will emerge Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region, but rain chances return by the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ028-035- 036-048.

MO...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ001>006- 009-014-016-017-024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ048>050- 088>092.