textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through Friday before a brief cool-down to near-normal over the weekend.

- Rain chances return to the forecast Friday and into Friday night. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, mainly south of I-40 in the afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Well-above-normal temperatures will return by the start of next workweek with highs in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A pretty benign weather day is present across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, under clear skies. Surface high pressure and upper-level northwest flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern through today with dry weather and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A pattern change will begin this evening as the upper-level pattern transitions from northwest flow to quazi-zonal. An embedded shortwave will become the predecessor to a surface low pressure system, currently over the New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas border. This low pressure system will begin to push into the ArkLaTex region by Friday morning. An attendant warm front will increase our moisture profile here in the Mid-South, increasing rain chances in the Delta along with it, aided by seemingly isentropic lift. By late morning, forecast PWATs will increase to around 1.15", nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year. At the same time, a cold front, currently draped just north of our area, will dip down across the Mid-South tomorrow, giving even more lift to widespread showers across the entire Mid-South as we move further into tomorrow afternoon. South of this cold front, mainly south of the Tennessee and Mississippi line, a decent swath of warm air advection will give lift to a small window for thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon. However, severe chances are slim to none as this area will be socked in all day and MUCAPE values will struggle to reach 200 J/kg with little to no effective wind shear. Storm total rainfall amounts will generally stay below an inch tomorrow.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will edge slightly below normal for the weekend with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper-level northwest flow and surface high pressure will quickly build in, bringing dry conditions back to the Mid-South for Saturday. Below normal temperatures will not last long, however, as the upper-level pattern transitions zonal by Tuesday and southwest winds usher in warmer air. Temperatures will return above normal, with highs in the 60s, and remain through at least the end of the workweek. The weather pattern becomes a bit unsettled towards the end of the workweek as an occluded system looks to push into the Upper-Mississippi Valley from the southwestern CONUS. However, we're a little too far out to iron out the exact details on this next system. Stay tuned...

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Benign weather will continue across the Mid-South for another 12 hours with rain chances increasing from west to east mid/late morning Friday. Mid-level clouds will increase rapidly late tonight into Friday morning with light rain moistening the column from the top down, mainly after 15z. This will yield very low precipitation rates at the onset. Increasing isentropic ascent by mid-afternoon will result in more widespread light rain through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, with precipitation ending Friday night. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR in the afternoon (with a 30-40% chance of IFR after 21z). Further deterioration is expected after 00z with IFR/LIFR conditions becoming more widespread.

There is a low probability for a thunderstorm at KTUP on Friday evening, given MUCAPE on the order of 200 J/kg, but confidence is too low to carry in the current TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Minimum relative today will be around 35% mainly south of the Tennessee Mississippi state line. A cold front will bring wetting rain back to the Mid-South tomorrow, increasing minimum RH values above 50%. Cooler temperatures will follow this front. 20 ft winds will remain light through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.