textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Driving conditions will remain hazardous into the weekend due to the re-freezing of melted wintry precipitation.

- An Arctic airmass will bring another prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures to the Mid-South through the upcoming weekend. Dangerous wind chill values and cold temperatures are expected. Wind chill values Friday night into Saturday morning will be as low as the single digits below zero.

- Low confidence in a light snow shower or patchy freezing drizzle occurring mainly west of the Mississippi River tonight.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

A broad upper-level trough over the eastern United States continues to bring below normal temperatures to the Mid-South. Mostly sunny skies are prevalent across the area this afternoon with 12 PM temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Bitterly cold temperatures and very low wind chill values are the primary concern in this afternoon's forecast issuance.

Temperatures have warmed above freezing areawide, allowing for some additional melting of sleet and snow since yesterday. However, this will be short-lived as a mid-level shortwave rotates through the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys tonight and another arctic cold front moves into the region. Short-term model soundings indicate moisture will be very limited as a mid-level shortwave trough rotates through the area. If any precipitation occurs, it will be a light and short-lived snow shower or light freezing drizzle. Our confidence in coverage and occurrence remains too low to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time but will continue to monitor short term trends.

A 1040 mb arctic surface high is expected to build into the Mississippi Valley this weekend. The cold temperatures have necessitated the upgrade of the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning for the southern two tiers of counties in North Mississippi Friday night into Saturday morning. This warning will transition to a Cold Weather Advisory until 12 PM Sunday. A Cold Weather Advisory was also issued for the remainder of the Mid- South Friday night until noon Sunday. Elevated winds along with the cold temperatures will result in wind chill values in the single digits above zero to the single digits below zero. Thereafter, winds are expected to be lower but temperatures will fall to the single digits above zero for Saturday night into Sunday morning. This second round of cold arctic air will put a pause on any additional melting of wintry precipitation until temperatures warm above freezing by early next week.

Rain chances will return to the Mid-South towards the middle of next week as another mid-level trough rotates through the Mississippi Valley.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level shortwave trough between ICT and OKC, moving southeast. This feature will bring an MVFR cloud deck to JBR, MEM and MKL by late evening, as it moves into AR. The bulk of short-range high res guidance keeps -SN and FZDZ over the southern half of AR, but 12Z HREF depicts a brief two hour window of -SN at JBR. The last several runs of the HRRR depict no precip near any of the Midsouth TAF sites.

Arctic air will flow into the Midsouth on Friday, with high MVFR CIGs improving to VFR.

PWB

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Moderate daytime humidity will prevail prior to the passage of a strong Arctic cold front early Friday morning. Bitter cold conditions will continue through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for ARZ058.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for ARZ058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>009-014.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for MSZ010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.