textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s on Thursday. Some locations will reach the low 100s by Friday and continue into early next week.

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended into next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Increasing cloudiness is expected into the overnight period with a decaying cluster of storms currently to our north. CAM guidance continues to show this activity essentially dissipating by the time it reaches our area, which follows the latest radar trends. There will be a mention of isolated PoPs mainly along the TN/KY through portions of the overnight hours, but expect for essentially all of the Mid-South to remain dry and much of this activity to either dissipate or stay east of the area. Into Thursday, a rinse and repeat forecast is expected across the Mid- South with an upper-level trough continuing to push to the east. While some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, expect for these to occur during peak heating and quickly diminish following sunset. As for our temperatures, temperatures will continue to climb a few more degrees with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s for the entire area. With dew point temperatures remaining in the mid 70s, locations along and west of the MS River can expect for heat indices to climb above 110 degrees, with 105 degrees or higher elsewhere. As such, an Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will remain in effect for Thursday.

By Friday, an upper-level ridge will begin to build over the southeast with temperatures rising into the upper 90s to low 100s for much of the Mid-South. Unfortunately, this trend will likely continue into at least the early parts of next week, if not the middle of next week. Guidance is still spread on the strength and timing of a weak trough by midweek, which would allow temperatures to be knocked back a few degrees. However, decreasing temperatures a few degrees still means highs in the mid to upper 90s, so the oppressive heat is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. With increasing confidence in temperatures into the weekend, the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory have been extended through at least Saturday. Further extension beyond Saturday will likely be needed, for at least a Heat Advisory, into early next week. As far as records go, the current record high temperatures for our climate sites are well into the low to mid 100s through this period. As such, it appears that no daily maximum temperature records will likely be broken. Regardless of this, caution should be exercised if you must be outside for prolonged periods through at least the middle of next week. Take actions now to be prepared for the rising temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the upcoming TAF period. While some guidance wants to bring diurnally-driven TSRA mainly across the eastern half of the airspace, there is not enough confidence to warrant any mention for MKL or TUP at this time. South / southwest winds will continue, picking up to around 10 kts through the daytime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue across the Mid-South for the foreseeable future, with no major fire danger concerns. Minimum relative humidity levels will remain above 40% with 20 ft winds remaining below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ007-010-011- 020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>006-008-009- 012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.