textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat Advisories will be in effect tomorrow through Friday across the Mid-South and will likely be extended over the weekend. Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.

- No significant chance of rain is expected over the next seven days, although isolated thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours can't be ruled out.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue to plague the Mid-South over the next seven days. Heat Advisories will remain in effect through at least Friday, and likely be extended through the weekend.

Midday temperatures across the Mid-South are in the upper 80s to low 90s under clear skies. A 594dam ridge is centered over south Colorado and north Mexico with another ridge of similar strength over the central Gulf Coast. Over the next 36 hours, the ridge to our west will shift over the Plains, and the ridge to our south will remain generally stationary. These features will essentially combine to form a large ridge encompassing the Plains and middle/south Mississippi River valley over the next 48 to 72 hours keeping the Mid-South hot and dry. Northwest Tennessee, mainly north of I-40, could see an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow, where northwest flow is slightly more prominent, but that is highly contingent on the development of an upstream MCS tracking into the region. Most short-term guidance keeps any convection to our north and east over central Kentucky and eventually into Middle Tennessee. Instability across West Tennessee will be high to extreme due to the high temperatures and dew points, featuring steep lapse rates over -7C/km and CAPE over 3500 j/kg. Weak shear closer to the northwest flow across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians may support strong to severe storm clusters, but storms should struggle closer to the ridge farther south and west.

The ridge will strengthen after midweek, and become more centered over the southern and middle Mississippi River Valley. As a result, temperatures should trend warmer and rain chances will remain minimal. Extreme Heat Warnings for Heat Indices over 109 degrees may be needed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as high pressure continues to strengthen over the region. As peak heating occurs, PROB30s for -TSRA were introduced at TUP for a few hours this afternoon as just enough moisture remains over north Mississippi. Southerly winds will persist through the TAF period with gusts up to 20 kts at JBR this afternoon and gusts up to 20 kts tomorrow afternoon at JBR/MEM.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Hot and dry conditions will result in increasing fire danger over the next several days. No wetting rain is expected. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% amidst light 20 ft winds, so Red Flag conditions are not expected.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009- 018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113- 115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>090.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.