textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- There is a low to medium chance for light rain Friday night in southeast Arkansas and north Mississippi.

- Cooler and drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- A warm and wet pattern will return early next week with temperatures warming into the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Tranquil weather resides along and east of the Mississippi River this evening as broad surface high pressure is in place. Aloft, GOES Water Vapor Imagery reveals a split flow pattern across the CONUS. A notable closed upper low is progressing through the Desert Southwest with several perturbations downstream over New Mexico and Texas. The upper low will translate east and dampen over the next 18 hours or so. As it does, a low pressure system will ride along the Gulf Coast with broad overrunning across the Lower Mississippi Valley. With current PWATs around 0.6 inches and negligible poleward moisture transport, showers will be confined to the central Mississippi with activity skirting across our north Mississippi. There is high confidence that QPF totals will remain light or less than a quarter inch.

Behind the passing wave, a broad trough will be in place through this weekend and deliver a shot of cool Canadian air to the region. This will lead to cool and dry conditions each day. Sunday morning will be exceptionally cool with readings in the upper 30s near the Tennessee River to mid 40s across the Delta. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s each afternoon.

The weather pattern will remain progressive through early next week with a trough digging across the Great Lakes region. This will result in surface cyclogenesis near the U.P. of Michigan and an attendant cold front traversing the Plains. Surface high pressure will slide east on Monday with moderate return flow setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley in its wake. A large trough will dig down across the Northern Plains late Monday with an upper low off the California coast. There are some notable differences in the upper level pattern evolution of the northern and southern jet streams in the operational models. However, LREF guidance suggests that a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms will return to the region next Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg, CIN > -25 J/kg, and bulk shear > 30 knots remain less than 20% on Tuesday with 20 to 40% probabilities Wednesday afternoon. It's a bit early to sort out details, but showers and thunderstorms are increasingly likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the front, cool Canadian air looks to settle into the region with below normal temperatures into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High cirrus ceilings are expected to continue through the period as northeast winds begin to slow. Winds will pick up to around 10kts around 15z tomorrow ahead of an approaching shortwave. The NAMNest favors light SHRA at KTUP tomorrow afternoon, but remains an outlier amongst the CAMs. No introduction of showers at any terminal at this time due to disagreement amongst the CAMs.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to recent wetting rains. Minimum relative humidity values will remain at or above 40 percent into Friday then falling to 35 to 40 percent this weekend with 20ft winds remaining light. Saturday presents the next opportunity for widespread RH values to drop near 35%. Humidity will increase early next week as a cold front approaches from the west.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.