textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Mostly dry and warm conditions will persist into Sunday with highs in the 70s.

- Unsettled weather will arrive Sunday night and continue through the following weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances

- There is a medium chance (50-60%) of heavy rain later next week and weekend, mainly along and north of I-40.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The first of a series of cold fronts will approach from the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon, kicking off our active weather pattern for the first week of meteorological spring. Sunday evening will see our first increase in PoP, but little accumulation is expected from this initial activity as there is plentiful dry air to overcome. The cold front will stall over the area by Monday, which will result in lingering shower chances through Monday. With such a dry environment, this first round of showers will bring mediocre rainfall amounts. Probabilities of receiving a quarter of an inch or more are 25% or less along and north of the I-40 corridor.

After a brief lull on Tuesday, an unsettled weather pattern shift begins to unfold. A deep troughing pattern over the southwest will spew several bouts of energy across the region for the rest of the week. Southwesterly flow will dominate from the surface through the upper levels increasing moisture and shower coverage by Wednesday. The increasing moisture will also favor thunderstorm development which will enhance rain rates and amounts. The second front that will swing through is also anticipated to stall, but a bit further north this time. This will continue to pull moisture towards the boundary, heightening thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. Despite having plentiful moisture and lift, joint probabilities (CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kts) from the LREF for severe thunderstorm development remain low (25% or less) over the Mid-South at this time.

The stalled boundary will continue to influence the synoptic pattern and continue to support shower and thunderstorm development daily throughout the work week. Unfortunately, the continuous influx of moisture will surge PW values between the 90 and 95th percentile of climatology enhancing rain rates and increasing rainfall amounts. The environment will be highly favorable for high-end precipitation/storm development ahead of a deeper trough and attendant cold front for the weekend. Timing of this frontal passage is still being pinned down amongst models, but deterministic guidance is favoring some decently steep height falls. From the LREF, severe weather probabilities are at their peak Saturday afternoon between 20-40% along and west of the Mississippi River with 20% or less to the east. Long range guidance has a sharp cut off for the heavy rainfall axis with 2- 3" accumulated over the next 7 days in northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel. These QPF amounts would be very beneficial to the ongoing drought conditions, but continued monitoring of the rainfall axis is warranted.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. South winds will veer northeast with the passage of a cold front Sunday morning. Confidence remains high for occasional gusts at JBR after 15Z Sunday and too low to include any rain showers at MEM Sunday evening. However, probabilities are slightly better for light rain showers occurring at JBR Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Rain chances will gradually increase and persist through the week as a series of upper-level systems move through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Wetting rain conditions are expected areawide through the next several days.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.