textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 1AM Monday for areas along the Tennessee River. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary concerns.

- Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South through Tuesday with heat indices reaching as high as 115 degrees.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek, providing some relief from the extreme heat.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

8PM radar imagery depicts a complex of storms diving south out of Kentucky into Middle Tennessee. The 00Z sounding out of Nashville depicts surface cape greater than 4500 J/kg along with bulk shear nearing 30 kts. While shear is on the weaker side, the abundance of instability will be enough for storms to overcome the weaker kinematics. One thing to note on the sounding is a weak EML at around 750 mb. The CAMs are modeling this well, depicting increasing CIN over the next several hours. Given this, storms will struggle to maintain strength for long and likely diminish by midnight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1AM for areas along the Tennessee River. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the primary concerns at this time.

Hot and humid conditions resume on Monday as the eastern flank of a 598 dam ridge remains over the Mid-South. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 90s areawide with heat indices in excess of 110 degrees. This pattern will persist into Tuesday as temperatures approach 100 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory are in effect through 8PM Tuesday. Luckily, a backdoor cold front will swing through the Mid-South on Wednesday and decrease dewpoints into the 60s. This will produce heat indices beneath headline criteria by Thursday. Until then, make sure you monitor yourself for signs of heat-related illness if working outdoors. Take frequent breaks and remember to drink plenty of water.

By Friday, a shortwave trough will move through the central Plains. This feature will increase rain chances in the Mid-South through the weekend. It remains too early to tell specifics, but for now expect the upcoming weekend to be wet and unsettled.

ANS

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No significant aviation weather concerns are foreseen for Midsouth TAF sites tonight. However, a corridor favorable for TSRA will extend from southern IL through western KY into middle TN this evening and overnight. The bulk of short term guidance keeps this TSRA east of MKL, but there is consensus on the passage of an outflow boundary through MKL around sunrise. Whether this boundary makes it to MEM is questionable. In any case, impacts from a slowing outflow boundary should be minimal - if no additional TSRA develops along the boundary. At this time, that doesn't appear likely. But the MKL TAF will continue the PROB30 for TSRA, given that some of the CAM guidance depicts TSRA along the TN River toward 10Z.

Strong upper level ridging will limit TSRA potential Monday afternoon, as VFR and light westerly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-013>017- 021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004- 019>021-048>052-088-089.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ022-053>055-090>092.