textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-South beginning Friday night with heavy snow, sleet, and ice accumulations expected through Sunday afternoon.

- Crippling ice accumulations are expected across portions of North Mississippi, leading to weather-related power outages and dangerous to impossible travel.

- Bitterly cold air will accompany wintry precipitation, lasting into early next week. Air temperatures and wind chills will drop into the single digits to below zero at times.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface high pressure across southern Illinois has resulted in mostly clear to clear skies across eastern Arkansas, Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee. A slow moving cold front southeast of the area has a parade of clouds across north Mississippi with a few very light radar returns moving into Alabama. The next 30 hours will be the last of pleasant weather before a significant winter storm begins to impact the region. A cut off surface low will be absorbed by a deep, upper trough near the Baja of California. The absorption will allow for enhanced southwesterly flow feeding ample moisture through the atmosphere for heavy precipitation development. Ahead of the wintry precipitation, there is a low chance (30% or less) of sustained winds reaching or exceeding 25 mph across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, and even lower chances of 40 mph gusts. There are high probabilities of at least 30 mph gusts, so expect breezy conditions in these areas Friday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning will go into effect at 6 PM Friday for significant icing across north Mississippi and a few counties in West Tennessee, as well as heavy snow and sleet accumulations. Ice accumulations across north Mississippi specifically will be crippling as probabilities still remain medium to high (60- 90%) for ice accumulations exceeding three quarters of an inch. These accumulations will be extremely dangerous and hazardous to these communities. Weather-related power outages, dangerous to impossible travel, and extremely cold temperatures are expected to follow.

The aforementioned surface low absorption, however, will take on a heavier tilt resulting in increased sleet chances generally along and south of I-40 and between I-55. The sleet/mixed precipitation zone will be a very narrow corridor and will need continued monitoring, but model soundings remain favorable for sleet as the primary precipitation type. Snowfall totals generally range in the 4-8" range, with probabilities of accumulating greater than 10" between 30-50% are generally confined to northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest Tennessee. Sleet mixing in will significantly lower snowfall totals. As high resolution guidance has begun to become visible for at least portions of this storm, there is a trend that there will be a brief lull at times of wintry precipitation. A bulk of this will fall late Friday night through Saturday afternoon and then once again late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

While several deterministic model outputs favor extreme icing across almost the entire Mid-South, soundings show the entire column below the 0C isotherm, with the exception of areas in the ice storm warning. The areas with higher sleet potential hovers very closely to that 0C isotherm, but surface temperatures remain in the 25-30 degree range which favors sleet over freezing rain. For areas that do accumulate snow/sleet, this will cause surface temperatures to dip even colder. Wintry precipitation will come to an end for all of the Mid-South by Sunday evening.

As if the mixed bag of precipitation wasn't enough, prepare for an arctic blast of extremely cold and dangerous air into next week. Monday and Tuesday are likely to have air temperatures in the single digits, with some areas below zero. The wind chills will only make this worse so expect Cold Weather Advisories/Extreme Cold Warnings for these days particularly. Any snow pack and sleet accumulation will keep temperatures even colder and could result in the Mid-South residing below freezing for at least 72 hours, with potential to be sub-freezing for 96 hours. While confidence remains medium to high on snow/ice/sleet potential, confidence is high for these dangerously cold temperatures. Preparations should be made now in the event that tree damage or weather-related power outages occur. Snow and sleet accumulations remain subject to change as more high resolution models display their outputs.

DNM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A relatively benign aviation day is underway this afternoon. Some midlevel clouds are still hanging around the TUP area and will continue lingering overnight. With the exception of a few hours of MVFR ceilings at TUP early Friday morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Biggest impact will be northeast winds increasing to 15-20 kts sustained with gusts in the 25-30 kt ballpark Friday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with the approaching cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Saturated soils from wetting rains and higher humidity values are underway and expected to last through this weekend. Expect accumulating wintry precipitation beginning Friday night that will last through the majority of this upcoming weekend. Very cold air is also expected this weekend into early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ001-007-010.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ002>006-008-009-011>017-020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088-089.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ053>055-090>092.