textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Another freeze is expected Sunday morning, primarily east of Interstate 55, with rural areas in West Tennessee dropping into the mid-20s.

- A steady warming trend will begin Monday with afternoon temperatures back into the lower 70s by Friday and Saturday.

- Extended dry weather will persist through late next week, likely worsening drought conditions across the region.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

00z upper air analysis shows an amplified ridge over the central CONUS from the Gulf northward into Canada with large-scale troughing on either side. An area of surface high pressure has developed behind the eastern trough and currently occupies much of the Midwest and Mid-South. The high is forecast to slide southward through Sunday and would normally lead to great radiational cooling conditions, but increasing upper level cloud coverage will manage to keep overnight cooling at bay. Regardless, surface dewpoints reside in the upper 20s and low 30s, indicating our floor for low temperatures. With all of this in mind, both NBM and REFS data show a 60% or greater chance over much of the CWA for temperatures to drop to below freezing again Sunday morning where lows are expected to fall to around 30 degrees for much of the region. Some sites' temperatures have already fallen close to their dewpoints prior to 06z, leading to a question on if any fog or freezing fog potential is there Sunday morning. Fortunately, forecast soundings show that the surface moisture is likely too shallow for widespread fog. But patches of fog or freezing fog are possible nonetheless, especially near bodies of water.

The original blocking pattern aloft will break down quickly through Sunday as the western trough escapes south, traversing the southern Plains and along the Gulf shoreline, losing amplitude with time. Once the trough reaches the Mid-South early Monday morning, much of the upper dynamics will have either shifted south or deteriorated to a moot level of strength. So, any upper moisture that would be advected in is not expected to have the support to produce precipitation Monday. Furthermore, if mid-level precipitation were to be generated, evaporation due to high surface dewpoint depressions from the current dry air mass will undoubtedly prevent surface precipitation.

Upper ridging will return behind Monday's trough into the middle of this upcoming week, nixing our precipitation chances. On the other hand, a warming trend will start with lows climbing back into the 40s by the latter half of the week. Highs will increase as well, reaching into the 70s. Ensembles remain in good agreement with one another through the end of the forecast period, indicating that troughing will largely remain west of the region into next weekend, keeping the warm, dry forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Light northeast/east winds and VFR conditions will continue through the period as an upper-level low moving from TX to LA remains well southwest of the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 603 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Dry polar air will remain throughout the Mid-South into next week. Expect frost both Sunday and Monday morning, especially across West Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Minimum relative humidity values will sit around 30 percent through Tuesday with minor relief towards 40 percent into the latter half of this upcoming week. 20-foot winds are expected to remain below 10 mph through the period. Lastly, wetting rains are not expected with 10-hour fuel moisture levels falling back to around 10 percent through the middle of this week, potentially creating somewhat elevated fire conditions.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.