textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 - Gusty winds, between 35 to 45 mph, are expected across the Mid- South on Sunday through Sunday Night. A line of showers will move through the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

- A significant temperature drop is expected on Monday and Tuesday. The combination of cold air and gusty winds will bring the feels like temperatures into the teens and 20s both mornings.

- Chilly mornings will continue through the rest of the workweek, but afternoon temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s beyond mid-week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Warm and windy conditions are on display across the Mid-South as of 11 AM. A Wind Advisory will go into effect for all of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and portions of north Mississippi at noon today. As the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a low pressure system, sustained winds will be around 20-25mph and gust up to 45 mph.

The aforementioned low pressure system will sweep a cold front across the area tonight and bring continued gusty conditions, rain showers, and a pattern change. Gusty conditions will enhance to around 45 mph with this line across the Wind Advisory area. Showers and enhanced wind conditions will be arriving from the northwest this afternoon. There is a very low chance (15% or less) of a thunderstorm today. Instability is lacking with a 20- 30% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Point and click soundings also depict a very stable near surface layer (~4C/km) and conditionally unstable (6C/km) aloft. With these parameters, severe thunderstorms are unlikely to develop. Despite the very low chance (15% or less), a stray rumble of thunder could occur across northeast Arkansas during the line of showers initial approach. Gusty winds are the primary concern this afternoon and evening.

The air behind the cold front is of arctic origin and will dip Monday and Tuesday morning lows below freezing. Tuesday morning has a high chance (>70%) of temperatures below 28F area wide under clear skies and the cool air finally sinks to the surface. Both Monday and Tuesday will be cool temperature wise, but brisk northerly winds will bring the "feels like" temperatures into the teens and 20s. This cold snap will not last long as southerly flow will return Wednesday afternoon and advect warmer air back to the region. Near normal temperatures will ring in the New Year with daytime temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s and morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will gradually rise above normal by the first weekend of January ahead of the next weather system.

DNM

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push into eastern Arkansas along a cold front. Guidance continues to quickly diminish thunder activity after sunset, so kept TS mention out of TAFs. The pressure gradient will tighten as the aforementioned boundary moves through the airspace, resulting in gusts up to 35 kts at all terminals. A brief period of LLWS will materialize at JBR and MEM shortly after FROPA with FL020 winds around 45 kts. MVFR CIGs will slowly erode by sunrise, but expect gusty winds to 25 kts through the rest of the period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Minimum RH values will remain above 50% through the weekend. A cold front will bring much drier air Monday dipping these values between 30-40%. The frontal boundary is expected to bring wetting rain conditions areawide, but winds will remain gusty. A limited fire danger threat will loom through late week as dewpoints will struggle to exceed 30F.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ001>003-007-008- 010>013-020-021.

TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.