textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Thursday afternoon across portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi. A Heat Advisory remains in place over north-central and northeastern Mississippi.

- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday and Saturday, with heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect area wide.

- A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms is in place on Thursday for portions of northeastern Mississippi and West Tennessee. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

More oppressive heat is on the way today as the strong 500 mb ridge continues to plague the eastern CONUS with dreadful levels of heat and humidity. Morning temperatures have already soared into the low 90s across the region, which are expected to climb to between 95 F and 100 F through this evening. Even with ample diurnal mixing, dewpoints will remain above 70 F in most places, leading to heat indices well above 105 F. Most of the region, apart from northeastern Mississippi, are likely to see heat indices climb just above 110 F. As such, we have continued the Extreme Heat Warning for these areas while maintaining a Heat Advisory for northeastern Mississippi.

The weak upper system that aided in the development of yesterday evenings' thunderstorms has managed to make it just a bit further northwest through the night. Water vapor imagery now places it over Middle Tennessee with a growing cumulus field by 17z. This follows a similar pattern to what preceded thunderstorm initiation yesterday where increasingly agitated cumulus develops over higher terrain, eventually growing into convective clusters that travel west. The 12z Nashville upper air data shows very steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, CAPE exceeding 3500 - 4000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values between 10 - 20 knots. This parameter space, in conjunction with DCAPE > 1200 J/kg, will lead to another day of powerful thunderstorms capable of damaging microbursts. Thunderstorms are expected to form just east of the Cumberland Plateau through this afternoon, bringing this threat of damaging winds west into portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeastern Mississippi. Outflow from these thunderstorms should make it to the Mississippi River this evening, quickly bringing temperatures down from their peak in the middle to upper 90s overnight. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Warning will end at 8 p.m. with an area-wide Heat Advisory taking its place thereafter.

Although temperatures may cool somewhat overnight along and east of the Mississippi River, high humidity will remain. This will allow for temperatures to return to the middle to upper 90s Friday alongside heat indices in between 105 F - 109 F. Again, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible, but forcing will be nebulous and likely dependent on today's convective evolution. So, forecast confidence in the exact severity of thunderstorms tomorrow is low at this time. However, similar conditions to Wednesday and today are likely to still be in place otherwise, which would lend some credibility to a damaging wind threat if storms are to develop. Any storms will impact the extent to which afternoon heat indices are able to climb and has kept us from leaning towards warmer guidance that would suggest the need for an Extreme Heat Warning and instead kept the area in an area-wide Heat Advisory Friday.

This diurnal thunderstorm and oppressive heat pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Confidence is high enough to maintain the area-wide heat advisory again on the 4th of July with heat indices between 105 F - 109 F and potential afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Forecast uncertainty will have ballooned at this point in the forecast given two days of convective feedback into the forecast. So, it is nearly impossible to pin down any exact locations that would be impacted by thunderstorms during holiday celebrations. Sunday will be much of the same, but the ridge will begin to slightly weaken with afternoon heat indices beginning to drop near 105 F across the region. With a weakening ridge and the potential for afternoon outflow from thunderstorms, we have opted to not extend this weekend's Heat Advisory into Sunday and will wait until future forecast periods as the forecast becomes clearer.

By Monday, most guidance shows the 500 mb ridge weakening below 594 dm and high temperatures falling to near 90 F. While some areas, particularly the Mississippi River Delta in eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, could still reach the 105 F heat index needed for a heat advisory, most of the region will fall below this level. That being said, the heat may not be less oppressive as the current forecast calls for the rest of the region to have triple digit heat indices through the remainder of the forecast. Lastly, with lower upper heights and high surface humidity, afternoon showers and storms are expected each day through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

12z hi-res models point toward TSRAs developing over Middle TN and north AL and spreading west into West TN and northeast MS later this afternoon and evening. Continued PROB30 groups at MEM, MKL, and TUP for TSRAs. Used persistence along with the latest hi- res models and added a PROB30 group to the MEM forecast for TSRAs on Friday afternoon. Outside of TSRAs expect VFR conditions and light winds.

SJM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected across the Mid-South through the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain above 40% in the afternoons, with daily, isolated shower and thunderstorm chances.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007- 010-011.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001-007-010-011.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ002>006-008-009- 012>017-020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.