textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Dry conditions will continue through Friday, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday mainly across north Mississippi. High temperatures will remain in the 80s.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Another beautiful day is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures currently in the upper 70s. Temperatures will continue to rise a few degrees into the afternoon, with high temperatures similar to yesterday in the low to mid 80s. Current water vapor satellite imagery does show some additional moisture moving in to our west, with some additional cloudiness arriving mainly west of the Mississippi River. Overall, dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue into tomorrow under high pressure, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Friday afternoon.

By Saturday, a closed, upper-level low will begin to move across the Southern Plains with additional moisture returning to the Mid- South. With this surge in moisture and a weak shortwave moving to the northwest, expect thunderstorms to return to the forecast mainly across north Mississippi by the afternoon. The aforementioned low will stall to the north of the area, leaving the Mid-South in a fairly unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm chances increasing by Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. LREF guidance does have some spread amongst members with respect to PoPs and high temperatures. Members with generally higher PoPs keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, while members with generally lower PoPs have temperatures creeping into the low 90s for some locations. Overall, it appears that a typical, summertime set-up will manifest through at least the middle of next week. CAPE values will be maximized in the afternoon, so a small threat for isolated instances of damaging winds and small hail will exist. However, organized severe weather is not anticipated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24- 30 hours, supported by high pressure building over the southeastern US. Winds will be light and southeasterly.

The JBR TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to an ongoing ASOS communications outage. A technician is expected to be dispatched today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Minimal fire danger concerns are anticipated for the foreseeable future. MinRH values will remain around or above 40% through Friday afternoon, however, light winds are expected. Additional moisture will begin to return over the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to north Mississippi Saturday afternoon and across the Mid-South by Sunday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.