textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms remains in place through this evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat, mainly across east-central Arkansas and north Mississippi.

- Dry and progressively warmer conditions emerge each day this week with a generally benign weather pattern.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER

Issued at 455 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Scattered sub-severe convection continues across portions of the Mid-South this afternoon. As of 430 PM, most of this activity is concentrated in the vicinity of a cold front that extends roughly from Paris (TN), to Ripley (TN), to Jonesboro (AR). Instability is adequate for strong updrafts with SBCAPE on the order of 1000- 2000 J/kg, but the dry air just above the surface reduces the MLCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg, which is not very impressive for a warm- season environment. Wind shear remains marginal for organized storms with effective bulk wind shear only around 25 kts. This may force some weakly organized clusters, but storms have shown a propensity to be more of the ordinary cell variety, quickly losing intensity once the core reaches ~20,000 ft AGL. Hodographs remain somewhat straight with very little shear in the lowest 3 km.

Precipitable water does remain quite high across the region, with PWATs of 1.0-1.5 inches over the western half of the CWA. A relatively high melting level and deep moisture will promote effective warm rain processes, but a lack of storm organization should limit flooding. This could change if storms orient along an east-west boundary. We've also been watching cold-air funnels over the Little Rock CWA. These funnels will be possible with storms this afternoon, but form from different processes than supercell-related funnels. They rarely touch down, and if they do, they are generally weak and very short-lived. Radar will NOT see them. Storms should diminish after sunset and the loss of diurnal heating.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A beautiful Mother's Day is progressing across the Mid-South with some scattered clouds and temperatures currently spanning the mid 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will continue to rise into the afternoon, with high temperatures still on track to reach the low to mid 80s. To our west, a weak shortwave is moving through the plains that will kick off some showers and thunderstorms across our area out ahead. Guidance continues to show some convection developing along a weak frontal boundary as it moves through the area. We are currently outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center in the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) across eastern AR, north MS, and far southwest TN. The 12Z CAMs have continued to back-off on the severe weather threat, with lapse rates remaining fairly lackluster. MLCAPE values will likely approach 1,000 J/kg for some by the afternoon, giving way to at least a small potential for some stronger storms. If storms were able to tap into this potential, a few summertime-esque, strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out primarily in the afternoon to early evening hours. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern, with some small hail. A few showers may linger behind the frontal boundary into the overnight hours, with clearing expected by Monday morning.

By Monday through generally the remainder of the work week, upper- level northwesterly flow will build in and will persist across the region. This will likely keep dry conditions in place for the foreseeable future with high temperatures in the mid 70s Monday and generally fluctuating between the upper 70s to mid 80s through Friday. A weak frontal boundary will approach the region along a shortwave overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, however, given the dry air at the surface PoPs remain negligible and we doubt any of the moisture would be able to reach the surface. The one benefit of this boundary will be that it will temporarily knock our temperatures back a few degrees into the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday. Despite this brief respite, guidance is suggesting a stark warm-up heading into next weekend as high pressure slides into the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move across the airspace at this hour. A cold front has just cleared MEM, with most TSRA conditions ending at this terminal. TUP is still likely to see a thunderstorm near the terminal, but confidence is low for spatial coverage, so a PROB30 covers this well. A post frontal rain shield is following closely behind and will linger into the overnight hours. The rain shield is light, based on current observations, and is not expected to reduce visibility below MVFR. Rain and any MVFR ceilings should end at the terminals near 15z.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers will move through the Mid-South this afternoon into this evening, bringing some much needed rainfall to the area. For the remainder of the week, dry conditions will persist with minRH values falling below 40% each day. While some borderline fire danger concerns could arise if minRH values dip lower, wind speeds will generally remain less than 10 mph each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.