textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Friday's cold front will bring an elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

This morning's upper air analysis featured an upper-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. with a longwave trough axis extending from the Northern Plains to the Southwest U.S. Southwest flow aloft is present over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. A few subtle embedded shortwaves are producing some showers and thunderstorms upstream along the I-40 corridor in the vicinity of a cold front. Very warm and dry conditions persist across the Mid- South with late morning temperatures in the 80s.

Another hot afternoon is expected across the area as temperatures rise into the lower 90s across most locations. This will result in the potential for a few additional high temperature records to be tied or broken. This period of hot weather will come to an end as a strong northern stream upper-level trough will drop into the region later tonight into Friday. This will result in strong cold air advection producing substantially cooler temperatures for Friday and the upcoming weekend. Highs this weekend will be mostly in the 60s with lows Saturday night falling into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Short-term model trends and soundings continue to indicate very sparse moisture associated with this frontal passage. Thus, confidence remains very low for any location receiving anything more than perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best. Elevated and gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage with surface dewpoints dropping substantially Friday afternoon. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30- 35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement.

Long range deterministic and ensemble model trends continue to show a dry pattern persisting across the region as an omega block sets up across the Southern U.S. next week. Consequently, temperatures will transition back to above normal next week with highs in the 80s towards the end of the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the airspace through the remainder of today. A MVFR deck may begin to move in along a frontal boundary mainly after 08Z from northwest to southeast, with the greatest confidence for MKL and TUP. MVFR cigs may be warranted at MEM and JBR in later TAF cycles, but there is enough uncertainty currently to leave out. Along this frontal boundary, there will be a sharp wind shift to the northwest with sustained winds increasing to around 15 kts and gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts through the end of the current period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Dry conditions will persist into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. A strong cold front will pass through the region later tonight into Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. These elevated winds and relative humidity values between 30-35 percent, generally for areas along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, may result in an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon and the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger statement. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will moderate again next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.