textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures will persist over the next seven days with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through midweek amidst low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Areawide rain chances return late Friday and persist through the Halloween weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

An anomalous 590dam ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Mississippi Valley bringing warm afternoons in the mid 70s to lower 80s and chilly mornings in the 40s to mid 50s. A very dry airmass remains fixed over the region with PWAT values around 0.5-0.7", nearing the 25th percentile for this time of the year. Such PWATs will not be able to sustain any precipitation through the workweek. Fire weather concerns will also persist as dry air mixes down each afternoon with dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s. We ask you to please continue to adhere to local burn bans, properly dispose of cigarettes and matches, and avoid using equipment that creates sparks.

By midday Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge will finally begin to break down as as shortwave troughing begins to push over the Southern Plains. Upper-level southwest flow will begin to build over the Mississippi Valley. Little to no change to the forecast will be witnessed as temperatures remain above normal and dry conditions persist. Enough moisture may be able to filter in to increase relative humidity values by a small margin, hopefully helping to alleviate fire weather concerns. However, local burn bans will remain in effect due to our ongoing dry spell. Our next shot at precipitation returns Halloween weekend as a subtropical jet begins to strengthen over the Southern Plains. Forecast PWATs increase to around 1.5-1.7", nearing the 97th percentile for late October. Latest LREF guidance has a 40-55% chance of exceeding 0.5" and a 20- 30% chance of exceeding 1" of rainfall. Any rainfall will be welcomed as extreme drought (D3) and exceptional drought (D4) currently exist over portions of the Mid-South.

AEH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions continue. Southerly winds less than 7 kts expected through the period.

DNM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least midweek. The latest Energy Release Component is forecast to drop below the 90th percentile on Wednesday, due a slight increase in dewpoints. The main limiting factor for fire growth and spread will be 20 ft winds, which are forecast to remain below 10 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Tuesday. Dry conditions will persist through the workweek and patchy fog may form each morning, especially in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.