textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon Sunday as wind chills hover around 0 degrees.

- Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain chances returning Tuesday.

- The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A 1040 mb high will center over the Mid-South by sunrise, allowing morning lows to dip into the single digits and teens. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon as wind chills hover around 0 degrees. Luckily, warmer conditions are on the way as high pressure slides east today, allowing winds to veer southwest. Afternoon highs will climb above freezing nearly areawide, allowing residual snow and ice to begin melting once again. Efficient melting will continue into Monday as sunshine and temperatures in the 40s and 50s return.

A slight pattern change will emerge on Tuesday as a shortwave and attendant cold front eject across the Plains. Ahead of this system, precipitable water values will increase to around the 90th percentile. Light showers will begin impacting the Mid-South in the morning hours, becoming more widespread through the evening. Precipitation will linger into Wednesday before the aforementioned front clears the area. Overall storm total rainfall appears minimal with the latest LREF painting a 30% chance of greater than 0.75 inches through midday Wednesday. This will have a minimal impact on the ongoing D2 and D3 drought conditions in the Mid-South.

The end of the week will feature dry conditions with temperatures warming to slightly below normal. Friday will be the warmest with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Long range guidance suggests another frontal passage this upcoming weekend, along with additional rain chances. However, run-to-run inconsistencies continue to make precise timing and impacts too early to tell.

ANS

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong surface high pressure over the region will result in VFR conditions over the next 30 hours. There is high confidence that winds will diminish to 5 knots or less through Sunday morning. There is a low probability (20%) of MVFR CIGs and/or fog affecting MEM and MKL near daybreak. Winds will shift to the south tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure slides east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Light 20ft winds and MinRH values above 50 percent will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum through the end of next week. Wetting rain chances return Tuesday.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>017- 020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092.