textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Delta region through 8PM today for heat indices in excess of 105F.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain through much of next week, though heat indices may linger closer to 100F as our heat dome continues to push east.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will remain each day across the Mid-South, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A very humid airmass is currently centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley with muggy conditions and current temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. Latest GOES water vapor imagery displays weak troughing continuing to edge closer to our area with embedded shortways impacting the Mid-South. These features have helped to bring more cloud cover than originally anticipated today. This increased cloud cover warranted a cancellation of our previous Heat Advisory in areas north of the Delta region where heat indices 105+F are not expected. Areas in the Delta region will remain under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today.

The aforementioned features and humid airmass has created an environment for more diurnally enhanced convection as we head into the afternoon hours. Digging into the parameter space this afternoon, we're looking at around 2500 J/kg of SB and MLCAPE, around 20 kts of effective shear, mid-level lapse rates around 6.0 C/km, DCAPE around 800, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, PWATs around 1.9-2.2", and a microburst composite of around 7-9. However, there are a few limiting factors with convection today in comparison to the past several days, CAPE is around 1000- 1500 J/kg less, cloud cover is increased, DCAPE is lessened, and shear is slightly increased. Today's severe weather potential will likely depend on breaks in the clouds and the amount of shear available as we move further into the afternoon. Regardless, any strong to severe thunderstorms today will be capable of producing damaging winds and heavy downpours, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

Heading into the workweek, weak troughing will continue to build over the Mississippi Valley as a surface front dips south and nearly stalls across the Mid-South. Thus, creating a messy pattern over our area as a weakened subtropical begins to build over the Southern Rockies. Daily isolated shower and thunderstorm chances, maximized in the afternoon to early evening hours, will exist as moisture remains in place as embedded shortwave perturbations continue to push over the Mid-South. Temperatures will also remain near climatological norms with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid-week. However, dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s with heat indices flirting with the triple digits. We're looking at more muggy conditions compared to dangerous hot and humid conditions.

Moving into late week, weather pattern details become further unclear, as ensembles struggle with the overall pattern evolution. Our weather pattern will be greatly influenced by how far east the subtropical ridge over the western CONUS pushes. There remains enough agreement that troughing begins to get shoved to our east beginning Thursday as temperatures begin to increase closer to the mid 90s. By Friday and into the weekend, shower and thunderstorm coverage also looks to increase as potential quasi-zonal flow begins to build over the region. Stay tuned to future forecast packages as details become more clear.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Primary concern remains afternoon and early evening TSRA. 1730Z GOES visible imagery showed a compact upper low about 50 miles east of LIT, moving east. This feature will likely aid TSRA development over eastern AR through 20Z, where breaks in the clouds have allowed surface temps to warm. A weaker upper low was noted to the southwest of TUP, drifting slowly east. These midlevel lows will likely lead to more organized TSRA, relative to Saturday. With less convective instability, storm motion should be more predictable and less tied to outflow boundary interactions.

For the overnight, clearing skies and calm winds will promote radiational fog potential at MKL, with LIFR VIS not out of the question in the predawn hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low across the Mid-South through at least early next week as minimum relative humidity values remain at or above 40 percent. 20ft wind speeds will remain generally light. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each day.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-008-010>012- 020.

TN...None.