textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Freezing fog will likely form again late tonight into Thursday morning across much of the Mid-South. Freezing fog may create a light glaze of icing on elevated surfaces. In addition to black ice from refreezing ice melt, slippery travel conditions will make overnight travel hazardous.

- Daytime temperatures will warm above freezing again over most of the Midsouth on Thursday.

- Bitterly cold temperatures will return to the Midsouth following the passage of a strong Arctic cold front on Friday. Morning lows will plunge to the single digits this weekend. Sub-zero wind chills are expected Saturday morning over most of the Midsouth. High temperatures Saturday will only reach the upper teens to mid 20s on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Upper-air analysis this morning features an upper-level ridge axis across the Rockies, an upper-level low near Hudson Bay, and an upper-level trough encompassing the eastern half of the United States. Sunny skies are prevailing after early morning freezing fog with late morning temperatures in the middle to upper 20s north of I-40, and 30s south.

Sunny skies are expected to persist across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 30s to lower 40s mainly south of I- 40. Latest high resolution short-term ensemble guidance suggests that additional freezing fog is likely to develop across the area tonight with the probabilities for one- half mile or less visibilities between 60-80 percent. Given the probabilities, a Freezing Fog Advisory will likely be needed for late tonight into Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to warm further into the middle 30s to middle 40s especially along and south of I-40. These warmer temperatures will help to melt some of the residual sleet and snow that remains on many roads. Black ice conditions will remain a concern on many untreated roads as melted snow and sleet refreezes at night.

Short-term model trends continue to indicate a weak shortwave trough with an associated cold front dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday night into Friday. A small potential exists (< 20% chance) for a snow shower to affect portions of the area mainly over east and northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee with accumulations remaining minor at best. Model soundings indicate a very dry atmosphere with precipitable water values around one-quarter inch. Confidence remains high for the bitterly cold air this weekend but low for any snow shower accumulations late Thursday night into Friday.

The main impact with this next front will be the next round of bitterly cold arctic air that will arrive for the upcoming weekend. Highs will be in the teens to 20s on Saturday with overnight lows in the single digits above zero to teens Friday night and Saturday night. A combination of the very cold temperatures and elevated winds Friday night into Saturday morning will likely necessitate Cold Weather headlines for wind chill values ranging from the single digits below zero to single digits above zero. We will be considering the issuance of a Cold Weather Watch in upcoming forecasts.

Long-term model trends indicate moderating temperatures for next week as the upper-level trough moves east and nearly zonal mid- level flow develops across the region. A Pacific cold front will bring rain chances back to the Mid-South by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through much of the period. Recent melting of lingering wintry precipitation will be conducive for the formation of freezing fog tonight as temperatures drop back below freezing. High resolution ensemble guidance indicates a moderate to high probability of visibilities dropping to one-half mile or less late tonight into Thursday morning. As a result, the lower visibilities were included everywhere except TUP for late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Cold temperatures will continue into Thursday, with areas of early morning freezing fog possible. A strong Arctic cold front will return very dry and bitterly cold air to the Midsouth this weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.