textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Dry weather continues throughout the Mid-South Monday evening with temperatures steadily dropping amidst a very dry air mass. Dewpoints currently sit between 35 - 45 F across the region which is expected to allow for rapid cooling overnight. Some sites have already dropped to at or below to the new forecast NBM minimum temperature, which is expected to continue across mainly West Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi tonight. So, expect lows in the 40s with some areas, like West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi, possibly dropping to near 40 for below. If areas are able to drop into the 30s patchy frost could occur, but confidence is not high enough to mention tonight.

Tuesday will see more of the same dry and warm weather with temperatures climbing back into the 70s and low 80s. An upper ridge will begin to gradually amplify over the southern CONUS through the middle of the week, which alongside a persistent area of high pressure over the region, will lead to the continuation of dry and warm weather through the remainder of the week. So, daily highs are forecast to climb into the 70s and 80s through the forecast period. Dewpoints will also remain very low, leading to forecast afternoon relative humidities at or below 30% across the majority of the region. Therefore, fire weather danger will remain elevated through the rest of the week.

Ensembles are in very good agreement that the ridge will begin to trudge east into this weekend, eventually getting flattened out by a trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. The resulting pattern will then place the remnants of the ridge over the Mid-South. Additionally, surface high pressure will remain in place with southerlies retaining enough of an easterly component to recycle the current air mass back into the region. So, it seems that the warm and dry weather will persist through this weekend and into the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR with light, generally NE winds through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will be in place daily throughout the Mid-South through the remainder of this week. Another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be in effect through Tuesday afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or below 30 percent for the majority of the region each day through at least this week. Additionally, FEMS fuel moisture content forecasts continue to show fuel moisture values bottoming out around 10 percent with no wetting rains in sight. 20-foot winds will remain light enough to avoid warranting any Red Flag Warnings, but additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected through the forecast period.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.