textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into the upper 70s to low 80s through the end of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly dispose of cigarettes and matches.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Similar weather compared to the past few days will continue as an arid continental air mass remains parked over the eastern CONUS. Wednesday morning's lows are expected to be slightly warmer than the past few nights, mainly owing to the presence of scattered mid-level cloud cover associated with a plume of moderate mid- level moisture advecting in from the plains. So, expect lows in the middle to low 40s tonight for most of the region and some potential for patchy fog, mainly near the Tennessee River.

Surface humidity will quickly plummet after sunrise. All three nearby upper air sites (LZK, OHX, JAN) display very dry dewpoints (< 0 C) just above 850 mb, which will promptly mix down dewpoints through the day. Highs are forecast to reach back into the 70s and low 80s, leading to afternoon and evening relative humidity values between 20 and 30 percent. Fire danger potential will remain elevated as a consequence, especially with very dry fuels present throughout the area.

The upper pattern will be evolving through the first half of the forecast with a ridge slowly amplifying over the Plains through the end of the week with an omega block pattern developing. Surface high pressure will remain locked in place through this time period, keeping a persistent forecast in place. Therefore, daily highs are expected to stick to the 70s with lows in the 50s through at least Friday. Ensembles are confident that the ridge axis will shift east and into the region this weekend, centered over the Mississippi River Valley. However, temperatures are not likely to budge much from this week with the interquartile range of NBM high temperatures Saturday and Sunday only around 3 F. Additionally, the variation of highs from day to day is also only +/- 1 F, likely a manifestation of the lengthening nights this time of the year. Regardless of the temperature forecast, precipitation is not expected due to the ridge and the recycling of dry, continental air near the surface, similar to this week. Forecast confidence degrades rapidly by Monday next week as the omega block fully breaks down. So, it is hard to say at this time if we will be able to break out of the dry weather or the Mid- South will remain parched evermore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions and light NNE winds through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue Wednesday with another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement issued for the afternoon and early evening hours. Low surface moisture will lead to minimum relative humidity values dropping below 30% across the entire region. 10-hour fuels are expected to remain at or around 10 percent fuel moisture. Light 20-foot winds, likely peaking at only 10 mph throughout the afternoon, will preclude the need for Red Flag Warnings. Similar conditions will continue through the remainder of the period, likely necessitating additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements through this week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.