textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Near record warm temperatures are expected through Thursday, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- An unsettled weather pattern will begin Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast through Saturday.

- Much colder air is anticipated Sunday and Monday, with temperatures dropping back toward or slightly below normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A 984 mb surface low, centered along the South Dakota and Minnesota border, will continue east today. As a result, its attendant cold front will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley before losing steam and washing out just to our northwest. The remnants of this front will be picked up by a shortwave moving out of the Rockies tonight. A tightening pressure gradient will develop Thursday morning, producing wind gusts near 40 mph in portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. As a result, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 9AM. In addition to gusty winds, isolated showers will impact the Mid-South through Thursday evening. There is potential for a few thunderstorms tomorrow just before sunset, mainly in northeast Mississippi. However, upscale growth of this activity will be limited with rainfall totals maxing out at a quarter of an inch. Rain chances will wane Friday morning as the aforementioned front pushes through the remainder of the Mid-South.

An unsettled synoptic pattern will emerge on Saturday as multiple shortwaves impact central CONUS. This regime will increase rain chances in the Mid-South by sunrise Saturday. Coverage of showers will be isolated in nature with rain totals remaining less than half an inch. By Sunday, much cooler air will be in place with highs in the 40s and 50s. The coolest day will be Monday as highs remain in the low to mid 40s. Seasonable temperatures will not last long as upper level ridging builds into the Mid-South on Tuesday. A warming trend will kick off at this time with highs reaching the 60s by midweek.

Long-term guidance suggests additional rain chances materializing by the end of next week, though large model spread and run-to-run inconsistencies keep confidence in timing and impacts low.

ANS

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The biggest impact this period will be gusty south/southwesterly winds and low ceilings. Gusts upwards of 20 kts will be intermittent this afternoon and pick up again tomorrow morning after decoupling briefly overnight. Confidence in showers this afternoon is fairly low for MEM and MKL, but higher at TUP. PROB30s still cover these showers well, though timing has shifted a bit earlier from the previous TAF. Guidance is very keen on ceilings dropping to IFR/MVFR thresholds just before sunrise. Gradual improvements are expected throughout the morning tomorrow but there will most likely be at least a BKN MVFR deck lingering across the airspace through late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Wetting rain chances return tonight and last through Saturday as multiple disturbances approach the Mid-South. This will curb fire weather concerns through the weekend.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for ARZ009-018-026- 028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None. TN...None.