textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Hazardous and record-setting heat will persist through the weekend, with little rainfall expected over the next seven days.

- An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Saturday for heat index values 105 degrees or higher.

- A frontal boundary will bring minimal rain chances to the Mid-South early next week before dry conditions build back across the region by midweek.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A stubborn, expansive, and anomalously strong 600-dam ridge remains in place across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio River Valley, and Southeast. Relentless heat will persist across the region through at least Sunday, as temperatures remain 12 to 16 degrees above normal. Record-setting high temperatures are forecast across nearly the entire Mid-South through Sunday, with daily highs climbing into the upper 90s and lower 100s.

Deterministic guidance is consistent in showing an upper-level low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic tracking southwestward into the Southeast late this weekend, helping to break down the ridge. This transition will lower upper-level heights by nearly 100 meters, allowing a shortwave to traverse the region on Monday. A weak frontal boundary will accompany this wave through Tuesday, but no appreciable rainfall is expected.

LREF guidance signals a deepening trough over the Great Basin by the middle of next week, with an amplifying ridge once again building over the Lower Mississippi Valley. ECMWF ESAT percentiles show 500-mb heights climbing to or above the 90th percentile late next week. Unfortunately, this translates to continued above-normal temperatures and dry conditions across the region. Although the area is losing nearly two minutes of daylight each day, 850-mb temperatures are forecast to remain near between 16 and 20C, yielding high temperatures in at least the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. For reference, the climatological highs are normally in the lower 80s for the last week of September.

AC3

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light and variable winds will persist into the overnight hours as high pressure retrogrades over the airspace. VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the period.

ANS

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Fuels will continue to dry amidst record heat each day as strong upper level high pressure remains in place through this upcoming weekend. Relative humidity values will range from 30 to 45 percent each afternoon with moderate to high moisture recovery each night. Widespread fire weather concerns will remain low to moderate over the next week or so as 20 foot winds remain less than 10 mph. No fog concerns for the foreseeable future.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.