textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- A low pressure system will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon.

- Weekend rainfall totals will be in the half to 2 inch range, with the greatest amounts along and north of I-40.

- A pattern change next week will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current surface observations place a surface low over the Texarkana region, which is forecast to progress eastward throughout the night. WAA will continue throughout the night as well to the east of the low as a low level jet ramps up along with a lifting warm front. Isentropic lift in response to these features has already allowed for the development of rainfall across the majority of the area this evening, which will become more widespread with time as the heaviest axis of WAA shifts into the region from the west. Observed PWATs from upstream at JAN and SHV show values of 1.23" and 1.64" as of 00z, which are well within the 95th - 99th percentile range for this time of year across the region and could allude to a localized flooding threat in urban areas through tonight. The flash flooding threat is expected to be mitigated in most areas by ongoing drought conditions and high FFG values (> 3") and low instability hindering the potential for widespread convection. The corridor of heavy rainfall is expected to exit the region to the east by sunrise tomorrow with some lingering showers across the region as the center of the upper system passes overhead, completely ending by early afternoon. When all is said and done, anywhere from 1" - 2" of rain is expected with the heaviest totals forecast along and just north of I-40.

As the surface low travels east tonight, an ongoing QLCS will outpace its eastward progress into Alabama, effectively occluding the low over northern Mississippi. However, maturation of the low will continue due to the presence of favorable upper dynamics. What is left is a combination of isallobaric wind and convectively induced surface pressure perturbations that will act in combination to develop a mesoscale area of strong winds. HRRR forecasts have been displaying this occurring tonight, particularly across northern Mississippi, near places like Clarksdale, Batesville, and Oxford. Wind gusts could reach up to 35 mph - 40 mph for a few hours, but the exact location is still too uncertain for the placement of a targeted Wind Advisory as RRFS guidance develops these winds south of the region. Regardless, the convective surface pressure perturbation will eventually weaken by 12z with winds being only driven by isallobaric processes. However, continued strengthening of the surface cyclone will lead to sustained winds still remaining elevated in the 10 mph - 20 mph range through 18z before the low starts to weaken.

The system will exit the region by tomorrow evening and bring dry weather back into the forecast into next week. As the upper trough exits the CONUS Monday, upper ridging will develop over the central CONUS. Weak CAA will only marginally drop temperatures, which in combination with a strengthening upper ridge, will allow for a warming pattern through the majority of the work week. Highs will start in the 60s Monday, climbing into the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday where some locations could flirt with record highs.

Ensembles are in good agreement that the upper ridge will begin to break down Thursday and Friday as a trough exits into the central CONUS. Guidance then brings a developing surface low across the central Plains and into the upper Midwest and a cold front down into our region by Friday, ending our warming pattern. There is still some uncertainty on the timing and placement of the front Friday. With several days of southerly winds ahead of the front, enough moisture will be transported back into the region to where some precipitation can be expected along the front as early as Thursday evening. Some guidance, such as today's GFS/ECMWF runs, show some weak MUCAPE along the front Thursday and Friday, but the aforementioned uncertainties lead to low forecast confidence in exact impacts from any convection. Most guidance has the front sweeping clean through the region Saturday with a cooler pattern setting in behind it into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Rain and low stratus will continue this morning as a surface low moves across north Mississippi. This will result in continued MVFR and IFR conditions into this afternoon. Gusty north winds are expected this afternoon on the back side of low pressure as rain gradually tapers off. Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates there is a medium to high chance (50-80% chance) of northeast winds keeping low stratus entrenched at MEM, MKL, and TUP through Monday morning. However, dissipating ceilings at JBR could allow for fog development late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Wetting rainfall will continue today increasing minimum relative humidity values well above 50% tomorrow. Rainfall totals will top out at around 2 inches by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, 20 ft winds will be elevated on the backside of a low pressure system. Warm and dry conditions will move back over the Mid-South through much of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.