textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- A warming trend will persist through late week with potentially record-breaking high temperatures by Thursday, as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s.

- A cold front will bring a low to medium (30-50%) chance of wetting rainfall to the northern counties on Friday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures will return on Sunday and persist into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A 1031 mb surface high is situated over the Atlantic Seaboard late this evening. Southerly flow is starting to redevelop across the area as the front stalled to the south starts to lift north as a warm front. This weak front will move through the Mid-South today with some clouds this morning. SSW winds will gradually start to pick up, and temperatures will climb well above normal this afternoon as sunshine increases. We expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Upper-level high pressure over Texas will nose in on Thursday with heights rising to 585 dm. Plenty of sunshine combined with gusty SW winds will push temperatures well above normal. There is a medium chance (40-70%) of temperatures exceeding 85 degrees across much of the Mid-South. Record highs are within reach throughout the Mid-South. (Memphis 86, Jackson 86, Jonesboro 87, and Tupelo 89)

A cold front will move through on Friday. The latest guidance is trending toward a slightly stronger trough moving through the Great Lakes and a little more upper support across the OH Valley. As a result, the probabilities of a wetting rain across northern sections (north of I-40) have inched up a bit to 30-50%. The front will knock down temperatures temporarily. By Saturday morning, there is a medium chance (about 50%) of lows in the upper 30s across NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN.

The pattern then repeats for the third time. A period of brief northwest flow aloft will occur, followed by the surface high slipping east, allowing southerly winds to redevelop, and upper- level ridging to build in from the southwest. This leads to above normal temperatures as soon as Sunday, with lower 80s returning early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Confidence is high for VFR conditions prevailing through the period. On Wednesday, southerly winds will develop on the back side of high pressure. Wind speeds will average between 7-9 kts at MEM, MKL, and TUP, and 9-12 kts with a gust or two at JBR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Fire weather danger will decrease on Wednesday as southerly winds usher in higher moisture and minimum relative humidity values increase to around 35-45%. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, but probabilities for wetting rain remain below 50% and are confined to areas north of the I-40 corridor. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will return early next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.