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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday with high temperatures spanning the mid 80s to low 90s.

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are expected to impact much of the Mid-South on Saturday with primary impacts including wind gusts up to 40 mph and periods of heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch has been issued for many areas east of the Mississippi River.

- Rainfall from Isaias will exit the area by early Sunday. The weather pattern will turn dry and warm by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Another warm and dry October day is on display with clear skies and temperatures spanning the 80s as a 586dam ridge continues to dominate the region. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will remain the weather story here in the Mid-South through tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Come late tomorrow evening and into early Saturday, eyes turn to remnants of Hurricane Isaias. After making landfall along the Gulf Coast states, it will begin to take a northern/northwestern trek, impacting northeastern Mississippi early Saturday.

The primary impacts with Isaias' remnants will be gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall. Forecast PWATs begin to surge to around 1.7", nearing the 95th percentile for this time of year, by early Saturday. One thing to note, much of the Mid-South is currently under severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought with very dry soils as little to no precipitation has fallen in quite some time. With forecast amounts ranging between 1" and 3", with locally higher amounts up to 4", a Flood Watch has been issued for Saturday through sunrise Sunday for most of our counties east of the Mississippi River. Latest NBM probabilities have a 30-50% chance of rainfall amounts through Sunday exceeding 3" over northern Mississippi. Some models, such as the RRFS, have an overall dry solution with us here in the Mid-South being dry slotted on the west side of Isaias' remnants.

As far as winds go, we're expecting sustained winds up to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph associated with this tropical system. A Wind Advisory will likely be warranted for some portions of the Mid-South Saturday, but will be issued in subsequent forecast packages. The exact evolution, intensity, and track of Hurricane Isaias remains uncertain at this time due to a few surface fronts (one currently extending across the Ohio River Valley and the other extending from central Florida through the northern Gulf) and the upper-level flow pattern. What we do know at this time is, Saturday will be wet and windy. As things currently stand, we are not expecting severe weather here in the Mid-South with Isaias' current track. If its remnants meander further west, further into our area, brief spin up tornadoes could become an issue. In any case, tornado potential remains almost non- mentionable at this time and if tornadoes do come into the story Saturday, they will be short-lived and best chances will exist east of the Mississippi River.

Isaias will move fairly quickly across our area by noon Sunday. Rain chances will diminish leaving a relatively pleasant and overall dry day with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Monday through the remainder of the 7 day period, we're looking dry and warm as upper-level ridging looks to broaden over the Lower Mississippi Valley by mid-week. Above normal temperatures head back into the forecast beginning Monday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s once again.

AEH

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the current TAF period with high pressure influences continuing. Winds will remain generally around to below 5 kts. Northeasterly winds will begin to shift to easterly near the end of the current TAF period, picking up to around 8 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Warm and dry conditions will persist through Friday, with minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany gusty winds on Saturday, as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move through. Generally 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are expected, with greatest amounts over far northeast Mississippi and near the Tennessee River. Dry and warm conditions will return on Sunday afternoon and persist into the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for TNZ019>022-048>055-088>092.