textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- High temperatures will warm through Wednesday into the 70s.

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur along the cold front over northwest Tennessee. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

- Much cooler temperatures will prevail from Thursday into the weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Evening GOES Water Vapor satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis placed a weak southern stream upper-level trough over northeast Texas this evening. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a few light returns over east Arkansas. However, confidence remains low that this activity is producing anything more than a few sprinkles at best. Skies were mostly clear across the Mid- South with late evening temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

This southern stream trough will continue to weaken as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. There is a low chance (20-30%) of rain showers overnight into Wednesday morning, mostly over north Mississippi. Short-term models continue to show a northern stream mid-level trough and an associated cold front rotating through portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Short term models (CAMs, REFS, GFS, and ECMWF) suggest isolated convective initiation may occur across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. The Mid-South likely will be on the southern fringe of any conditional convective development with better forcing displaced to the north and east of the forecast area. The 00Z REFS indicates a medium to high chance (greater than 50%) of joint probabilities of surface-based CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg, and shear in excess of 30 kts. However, this activity will be occurring closer to sunset with moisture remaining limited at best. There is a low (20% or less) probability of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm should any convective initiation occur in this marginally favorable environment with damaging winds and large hail as the threats over this area.

A secondary upper-level trough and associated cold front will rotate through the region by Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season thus far. Latest NBM and LREF probabilities indicate a medium to high chance for temperatures to be at or below 32 degrees across much of the Mid-South by Saturday morning, and a medium chance (30-50%) for temperatures to fall to 28 degrees or lower. This cold air will likely bring an end to plant growth for the season but won't warrant any freeze watches or warnings as the official growing season ended on October 31st.

A gradual warming trend is expected next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. A modest increase in moisture with southwest flow aloft returning will bring rain chances back to the region next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty WSW winds will develop in advance of a quick-moving cold front that will push through later this afternoon and this evening. There is a low chance of a shower at MKL and TUP this evening. Winds will shift to the NW behind the front this evening with occasional gusts that will eventually diminish later tonight. Occasionally gusty NW winds will return later Thursday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Minimum relative humidity will moderate slightly on Wednesday, in advance of a strong cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front, producing minimal chances of wetting rainfall east of the Mississippi River.

Much cooler air will settle into the Mid-South from Thursday into the early weekend. A hard freeze is expected over West Tennessee and northern Mississippi Saturday morning, with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.