textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Isolated rain chances will return this afternoon, becoming more widespread by Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts will vary from around a quarter of an inch to one inch.

- After a brief break from the rain on Monday, showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Another generally calm overnight period is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the upper 60s to 70s. Latest nighttime microphysics RGB does have plenty of clouds continuing to filter into the region, which will aid to keep overnight lows a bit warmer than the past few days. By sunrise, temperatures will likely be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for much of the area. A somewhat dreary (spooky?) forecast does look likely for Saturday as a weak trough begins to move into the area. Showers will likely struggle initially against the dry air and high pressure to the east of the area, but alas additional moisture will funnel in through the day with better precipitation chances arriving late Saturday and into Sunday morning. While I do not think that Halloween will be a washout by any means for everyone, I would prepare for at least some off and on rain if you are out Saturday evening. Precipitation will stick around through at least the first half of the day on Sunday, before moving out in the evening. Total rainfall amounts will generally range across the area, with amounts upwards of around an inch for a few locations.

By Monday, conditions will dry out temporarily across the Mid- South with WAA allowing temperatures to return to the 70s into the first half of next week. Looking to our west, an upper-level trough will move off of the Rocky Mountains and will eventually bring us our next shot of rain into the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. There is still some uncertainty amongst guidance with how the low out of the four corners will interact with a low out of Canada, which will ultimately play a roll in the evolution of the system. The most likely scenario at this point is a low pulling off to our north, which would spell more of a little to no severe weather setup rather than severe weather set up for our area. While shear will likely be on the higher side, it does look like the better CAPE profiles will remain to our south. LREF guidance currently has a 20-30% chance of favorable conditions for a few strong storms mostly over our far southern counties. However, given the set up, these percentages appear to be a bit overdone for our area. While this will be something to watch into next week, the threat for severe weather does appear to be low at this point. Total rainfall amounts range from 1 to 2 inches across the area, which is certainly welcome given the ongoing drought conditions.

Beyond the midweek system, LREF guidance does suggest a generally dry and near-normal temperature pattern will return to the Mid- South. Guidance does show a weaker upper-level low traversing the Midwest by the end of the week with a weak ridge developing into next weekend. This combination would likely aid in allowing dry conditions to return and temperatures closer to normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Midlevel moisture inflow will continue into the Midsouth today, in advance of an upper level trough lifting out of the southern plains. Some high-based -SHRA/virga cannot be ruled out.

SHRA chances will increase this evening, as stronger winds off the surface bring additional subtropical moisture and a transition to MVFR. There is a signal for likely IFR by 12Z Sunday at all TAF sites, accompanied by widespread SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Despite prolonged drought conditions, some improvements in fire danger concerns are expected beginning on Saturday through at least the middle of next week. Minimum relative humidity levels will rise with moisture returning to the region, with multiple chances for precipitation this weekend and through the middle of next week.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.