textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Unseasonably cool and dry weather will prevail through the first half of the week, with potential marginal fire weather concerns on some days.

- A significant warm-up is expected late week into the weekend, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s, approximately 10 degrees above normal for the region.

- Long-range outlooks favor a return to a wet pattern with above-normal precipitation chances beginning early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Broad troughing continues over the northeast CONUS with an upper level low impacting the Lower MS Valley and Gulf coast. Building behind this low is broad upper level ridging over the Four Corners Region. Due to the location of the two main upper features, the Mid-South is situated under northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure. This means cooler and drier conditions will prevail for the early half of the week. Due to a frontal passage, the dry air, which is a result of a recent frontal passage, will promote low relative humidity values, though wind speeds will generally stay light. We will be keeping an eye on any marginal fire weather concerns. A weak, dry cold frontal boundary will impinge on the region Wednesday night bringing another slight cool down for Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northwest TN.

The aforementioned area of upper level ridging will build and slide east over the coming days allowing for temperatures to climb late week into the weekend. This is the best chance for 90 degree days to be felt across the region. There are low probabilities (from the LREF) for 90 degrees being felt across Delta as early as Friday. Probabilities for 90-degree temperatures increase to medium to high and are expected to cover a wider area on Saturday and Sunday. With 90s in the forecast, this is roughly 10 degrees above normal for areas like Memphis and Tupelo.

Despite warm and dry conditions, the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day precipitation outlooks favor 33-50% chances of above normal precipitation for both of the outlook periods. Enjoy the rainfree weather for now, as a wet pattern will emerge early next week.

DNM

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

High pressure will remain over the region through the TAF period, allowing for VFR and light winds to prevail through the entire forecast. Any wind is expected to be easterly to southeasterly up until 00z before dropping to VRB/calm through the remainder of the period.

AMD NOT SKED at JBR due to missing METAR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Dry conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the week. MinRH values will generally be below 40%, with some locations falling below 30% each day through Thursday afternoon. As such, some borderline fire danger concerns may arise. Winds through the period should remain below 10 mph throughout the week as well.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.