textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Warm and humid summer days will continue across the Mid-South with highs in the low to mid 90s over the next seven days.

- Heat index values may approach 105 for some on Sunday, becoming more widespread by Monday. Heat Advisories will likely be warranted for some locations next week.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will exist on Saturday, mainly along and south of I-40.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Latest scans from KNQA do show some showers ongoing near the TN River, with additional showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. The cluster of storms to our west / northwest will continue to move towards our area along a decaying MCV through the overnight hours. So far, storms have remained relatively tame over the past few hours with only a few special weather statements to note in surrounding areas. Taking a look at our current environment, storms will likely struggle even further as they reach our area. There is currently a fairly decent cap in place, with low and mid-level lapse rates currently < 6 C/km. There is still >1,500 j/kg of MUCAPE if storms can find a way to tap into the potential, but much of the latest guidance does not suggest that this will be the case. Nonetheless, the forecast will carry scattered thunderstorm chances across the far northwest portions of the CWA with isolated chances elsewhere into the early morning hours.

Into Saturday, CAMs continue to struggle with the placement and evolution of the aforementioned MCV, which will still be traversing the area through the daytime. The best chances for any redevelopment would likely be in the afternoon hours with peak diurnal heating, but will not entirely rule out some convective development in the morning with the lingering boundaries. As far as temperatures go, much of the Mid-South will remain in the low 90s once again. Heat index values may approach 105 for some locations, mainly across the delta regions. However, with some CAMs developing convection across this area in the morning, this will create uncertainty. Latest HREF guidance keeps chances of exceeding 105 less than 20%, so opted against issuing any heat products.

By Sunday into the beginning of next week, zonal flow aloft will continue to develop with a strengthening high pressure to the east. This will allow for a more typical, summertime airmass to remain in place. With this airmass and little forcing aloft, there will be daily, diurnally-driven thunderstorm chances. Coverage, however, will likely remain fairly isolated and more in the pop-up variety rather than any organized storm system. As far as high temperatures go, highs will generally remain in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees for many locations by Monday through Wednesday. Daily heat advisories for at least some portions of the Mid-South will likely be needed through this timeframe. By the middle to end of next week, an upper-level trough will begin to dig through the midwest, allowing the Mid-South to return to a more northwesterly flow regime. This would allow for a small uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances, with high temperatures falling a few degrees back down to near normal. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and timing of this trough, which will ultimately play a role in how next week ends.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

An MCV is currently making its way southeast across northeastern Arkansas and southern Missouri as of 05z and will continue moving in that direction through the night. Notably, this feature is moving at a slower pace than previously forecast and will thus move into JBR/MEM a few hours later. Additionally, recent model trends indicate that the shower potential may be decreasing tonight, but have opted to retain the VCSH/-SHRA at JBR/MEM.

Outside of heavier showers at JBR/MEM, VFR will prevail through Saturday morning. The MCV will have made its way into the region through this time as well, but confidence is low on its exact position come Saturday afternoon. This will have an impact on the location of the highest convective coverage through the latter half of the TAF period. Currently, the highest confidence is in MEM/MKL/TUP seeing isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon that will diminish in coverage past 00z - 01z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A typical summertime airmass will bring daily, isolated shower and thunderstorm chances for the foreseeable future. As such, fire danger concerns are expected to remain limited with minimum relative humidity values above 40% and 20ft winds at or below 10 mph.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.