textproduct: Memphis

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the Mid-South through the work week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into midweek due to warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase this weekend as a slight pattern change occurs.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rinse and repeat. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist as an anomalous 592dam ridge remains parked over the central CONUS. Chilly mornings with lows in the 40s to mid 50s and warm afternoons with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s will remain the story. A very dry airmass also remains fixed over the Mississippi Valley with a very dry air column present as PWATs remain around the 25th percentile for this time of the year, 0.5- 0.7". It goes without saying, this airmass will not be able to sustain any precipitation over the next several days. Through midweek, very efficient diurnal mixing will result in afternoon dewpoints in the 40s. A combination of low relative humidity, dry fuels, and warm temperatures will result in elevated fire weather concerns through this period.

By midweek, upper-level southwest flow will begin to build across the region. In terms of precipitation and temperatures, little to no change is to note as we remain dry and above normal. As persistent ridging flattens, dewpoints may be able to surge ever so slightly Wednesday through the end of the workweek, however, fire weather concerns will continue given dry vegetation and worsening drought conditions. To answer the question, when will we see rain next, late Friday, a subtropical jet will begin to strengthen over the Southern Plains. This will finally promote an end to our persistent dry spell as moisture begins to increase over the Middle Mississippi Valley this weekend. Latest LREF guidance has a 40% chance of exceeding 0.5" of precipitation and a 50-60% chance of exceeding 0.25". Bottom line, we're not looking at a washout, but we'll take what we can get with extreme drought (D3) and exceptional drought (D4) over portions of the Mid-South.

AEH

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR will prevail at all four terminals through the period. Expect light east-southeasterly winds with an increase in upper level cloud cover.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least midweek. The latest Energy Release Component is forecast to remain above the 90th percentile through Tuesday. This, combined with dry fuels and minimum relative humidity around 30 percent, will promote increased fire starts and growth. The main limiting factor for high fire danger will be 20 ft winds, which are forecast to remain below 10 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Monday and additional Statements are anticipated through midweek. Otherwise, expect each day to feature dry conditions with isolated patchy fog in low-lying areas.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.