textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- A wetter and cooler weather pattern looks to set up this weekend lasting through much of next week. Isolated rainfall amounts in excess of an inch result in increased flash flooding concerns.

- There will also be a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend with strong winds the main threat.

- Drier and warmer conditions return for many late next week, though isolated rain chances hang around in our western portions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Changes in our weather pattern are just around the corner! A shortwave trough is rolling over the upper ridge that has been hanging near northwestern Mexico, eventually pushing it further west. The trough digs down into the central Great Plains through the course of the day tomorrow, dragging a cold front along with it. Tonight, temperatures remain mild, in the 70s for most. Saturday, lowering heights bring cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs reach into the upper 80s across portions of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, 90s elsewhere. Saturday night lows drop into the 60s and low 70s.

Aside from cooler temperatures, this weather pattern will provide us with relatively decent rain chances. Given an area of surface high pressure over the Gulf, plentiful moisture shall stream into our region. Lift associated with the trough, the approaching cold front, and surrounding outflow boundaries will promote shower/storm development Saturday. During the afternoon and evening hours, nearly all of our region will have at least a 40% chance of rain, with our best (60-80%) chances over the Permian Basin and the higher terrain. Several rounds of rain and occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. Should a Flash Flood or Flood Warning be issued, be sure to have a plan of action ready to execute. Though flash flooding will be the main weather concern Saturday, the strongest storms may also produce damaging winds and isolated large hail. All this being said, stay weather aware Saturday!

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The long term forecast generally looks to maintain below normal highs and almost daily rain chances across our region. Sunday, the cold front discussed in the short term period begins to dissipate within the northern Permian Basin. Rain chances remain above 30% areawide through much of the day Sunday. Similar to Saturday, flash flooding may be of concern depending on rainfall totals, rates, and soil saturation. Otherwise, temperatures Sunday afternoon are forecast to warm mainly into the 80s, with 90s expected near and along the Rio Grande.

Starting off a new work week, temperatures gradually rebound, though generally stay near to slightly below normal. Highs in the 80s/90s linger through the extended forecast as several rounds of disturbances pass overhead along the periphery of a ridge out west. Increased rain chances look to accompany these disturbances. Best odds for rainfall will be over and near the higher terrain due to upslope flow, but at least an isolated chance of rain will exist elsewhere through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions at most terminals through the period, though MAF is forecast to drop to MVFR for a couple of hours this morning as low clouds filter in from the east. A few models indicate a complex of showers and thunderstorms will approach from the northwest later this morning, potentially impacting HOB and MAF. As a result, went ahead and included PROB30s for these sites. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout the day at/near most terminals, but for now confidence was a bit too low to include further mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, breezy southeasterly winds continue, becoming a bit more easterly later this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 69 86 69 / 30 70 50 50 Carlsbad 91 68 87 67 / 40 60 40 30 Dryden 96 74 93 73 / 10 30 40 30 Fort Stockton 96 69 89 70 / 30 60 60 40 Guadalupe Pass 85 64 80 64 / 40 40 40 30 Hobbs 88 66 85 65 / 40 70 40 40 Marfa 89 63 82 63 / 60 70 80 40 Midland Intl Airport 91 70 86 69 / 30 70 50 50 Odessa 90 69 85 69 / 30 70 50 50 Wink 92 69 86 68 / 30 70 40 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.