textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Warmer than average temperatures persist today before cooler conditions set in early next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Weak upper ridging currently spans much of the southwestern US, keeping hot and mostly dry conditions within our region. Temperatures this afternoon are still on track to reach the upper 90s to triple digits (especially near/along the river valleys). Tonight and into Saturday, the ridge continues to weaken and begins to shift northeastward, toward the central Plains. As a result, temperatures begin a cooling trend by the weekend. Lows Friday night fall to the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs Saturday top out mainly in the 90s. Aside from cooler temperatures, this pattern shift also promotes increasing rain chances. Most look to stay dry this afternoon and evening, but breezy south/southeast winds bring low (<20%) rain chances to the higher terrain and portions of SE NM. The best odds for isolated showers/storms will be near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Saturday, rain chances tick upward as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and a disturbance from the Gulf drifts eastward. During the afternoon and evening, low (10- 30%) rain chances overlay portions of SE NM, the higher terrain, the Big Bend, and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. A cooler and wetter trend continues into the Long Term. Details below!

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects over the area Saturday as it build into the northern Plains. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak front will drop into the region early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope flow will persist at the surface during this time.

Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across portions of the region early next week. Additionally, while cooler temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday, with afternoon highs moderating into the 80s and low-90s Tuesday

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals with elevated southeast persisting through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 96 74 95 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 73 98 72 95 / 0 0 20 10 Dryden 73 95 72 93 / 0 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 70 95 71 92 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 68 90 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 69 95 69 93 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 61 93 61 87 / 0 10 0 60 Midland Intl Airport 73 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 72 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 72 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.