textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- A quiet weather pattern persists with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions throughout the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the Great Basin and Desert SW today continues the large scale sinking motion and warm and dry weather. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depict mid to high level clouds mainly south of Culberson County and the northern Permian Basin drifting in a clockwise direction in the west/southwest mid to high level flow off the northern MX plateau. These higher clouds are limiting overnight cooling and will result in less chance of mist/fog formation than past mornings except perhaps regions of clearer skies over northern parts of the forecast area. Highs today rise 5F to 10F warmer than yesterday under increased ridging and continued warm air advection from west/southwest flow. NBM and high- res ensembles are still in agreement in forecasting 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, and 70s F Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos (and possibly Pecos River Valley in SE NM plains) and Presidio Valley into Big Bend by this afternoon. As a disturbance develops at the crest of the mid to upper ridging over the northern Rockies and propagates southeast, ridging will begin to break down and allow for the sharpening of a cold front over the central High Plains and CO Rockies that surges south through the area. Timing of the front in high-res ensembles is later than the Monday evening timing the NBM is suggesting - instead pushed back to early morning through mid- morning Tuesday. Ensembles also indicate timing of peak northerly winds sustained 20 to 30 mph for higher elevations of Guadalupes through Lower Trans Pecos during Tuesday morning. At this time, winds even for highest elevations remain below high wind criteria for highest elevations, so did not issue any wind products. However the situation progresses with timing of the front, tonight will still continue the warming trend in low temperatures for one more night under dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture remaining in the upper 20s F to mid 30s F easternmost parts of the forecast area and inhibiting overnight cooling, as both NBM and ensembles indicate mid to upper 40s F southwest of Pecos River over the Stockton Plateau into Rio Grande basin, mid to upper 30s F only far northern SE NM plains, Permian Basin, and peaks of Davis Mountains, with upper 30s to lower 40s F elsewhere.

By Tuesday afternoon both deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement that the cold front will have cleared the area, with CAA keeping highs again in the upper 50s to lower 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, and upper 60s to lower 70s F only along and within a few hundred miles of the Rio Grande. With this having been a relatively fast developing frontal feature, we are not expecting any precipitation with the front at this time. As the cold front clears the area and northerly winds decrease in speed and shift to east/northeast, dew point temperatures settle into the upper 20s to lower 30s F areawide, reduced large scale sinking motion from subtle troughing aloft, and light drainage winds allow lows to cool back to within a few degrees of below freezing for foothills of Marfa Plateau, Pecos River valley of Eddy County Plains and much of Lea County into Permian Basin, with mid to upper 30s F north of the Rio Grande basins elsewhere, and 40s F over the Rio Grande basin. Despite light winds and high relative humidity, especially over the Western Low Rolling Plains, no fog/mist is expected at this time. Even as we likely avoid high winds and any precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday with a cooldown, temperatures will again take some time to warm back above average. Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package. A slightly cooler day is in store on Wednesday thanks to surface northeasterly winds associated with a surface high pressure north of the region. This will yield high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with the exception of areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio valley spanning in the upper 60s to low 70s. In the upper-levels, guidance has a shortwave trough passing near the region Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation chances remain near zero due to the favorable ascent and moisture for rain staying east of the forecast area. By Wednesday night, the aforementioned surface high shifts into west Texas. Clear skies and light winds will create ideal conditions for radiational cooling, dropping lows in the mid 20s and mid 30s. Temperatures warm back up from this point forward. Cluster analysis continues to show an upper-level ridge axis beginning to develop west of the region by Thursday. All solutions have the ridge axis over west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday, placing highs back in the 60s and low 70s. This upper-level pattern looks to persist through the weekend keeping our weather dry and warmer than normal for this time of year.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions at terminals after 14Z, with light and variable winds shifting to southerly by 17Z-21Z this afternoon. Winds shift back to northerly at terminals with a cold front passage 05Z-10Z Tuesday morning, accompanied by breezy winds up to 15 to 20 knots into the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 38 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 68 39 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 65 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 42 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 58 40 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 36 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 67 35 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 65 40 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 67 38 62 32 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.