textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through at least early next week, with this weekend seeing the peak of the heat. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico next week

- A cooling trend begins as we head into a new work week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As of 230PM today, we have broken the daily record high of 101F at MAF (set in 1930)! The thermometer at KMAF currently sits at 102F! This heat comes as the result of an upper level ridge spanning overhead and across the southwestern CONUS. The center of the ridge lies just west of our region this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the northeastern Permian Basin through early this evening, where highs are forecast to reach up to 107F. Areas near and along the river valleys are forecast to reach between 105-110F this afternoon. However, some relief from the heat may be offered in the form of isolated showers/storms. A surface trough near the TX/NM border extends southward, and will serve as a focus for storm development through early this evening. Rain chances are low (10-20%) over Lea County and the northwestern/central Permian Basin. A few showers and storms have also already developed in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains and the Marfa Plateau, driven by upslope flow and daytime heating. Should any storms become strong, the primary threats would be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall looks to come to an end later this evening, then overnight lows cool to the 60s in the higher terrain, and 70s everywhere else. A low-level jet will keep southeasterly winds breezy tonight.

Sunday, the center of the ridge begins to shift east/northeast, developing near north Texas and Oklahoma by the afternoon. Given the shift of the ridge core, highs will be a few degrees cooler Sunday compared to today. Triple digit heat is again expected over the northeastern Permian Basin, and near/along the river valleys. Although, Heat Advisory criteria looks to be avoided. Highs in the 90s are forecast for the rest of the region. Isolated showers/storms are again forecast over the higher terrain and portions of SE NM Sunday afternoon and early evening. Lows Sunday night will be similar to Saturday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper level ridging continues to shift eastward through early next week, engulfing much of the eastern CONUS by Tuesday. Although our region will lie below the western edge of the ridge, decreasing heights coupled with southeasterly flow promotes a cooling trend. Highs in the 90s shall be prevalent Monday and Tuesday, though areas near/along the river valleys and portions of the northeastern Permian Basin are progged to reach the low the low 100s. Wednesday onward, triple digit heat becomes restricted to areas along the Rio Grande valley. By late week, afternoon temperatures look to mainly range in the low-to-mid 90s, with 80s in the higher terrain and much of southeast New Mexico. Along with the cooling trend, rain chances also see an uptick as disturbances ride along the edge of the ridge. Rain chances will tend to favor the western portions of our region most afternoons, especially in the vicinity of the higher terrain. A few long-range models show a cold front pushing in next weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and better rain chances. We will see how this evolves as we head through the next several days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated to scattered storms have been prevalent mainly across the Trans Pecos this afternoon. VCTS has been included at FST as those storms slowly drift southeast. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two across far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin early this evening. If one does develop, erratic and gusty winds with lightning will be the main impacts. Storms are expected to dissipate by 03Z. A low-level jet will bring breezy southerly to southeasterly winds late this evening and overnight for most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 102 73 100 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 93 69 90 / 0 20 10 0 Hobbs 73 99 71 97 / 10 0 10 0 Marfa 64 92 64 90 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 99 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 77 99 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 77 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.