textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- A warming trend persists through the weekend.

- There is an increasing likelihood of multiple high temperature records tied or broken late this week and weekend. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks from the heat Friday through Sunday!

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Nighttime IR imagery again depicts scattered to broken cloud cover drifting north to south over the area early this morning, with denser high clouds over the eastern parts of the area and mostly clear skies over western parts of the area. Dew point temperatures remain largely in the 20s F with 30s F over northern Permian Basin and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Following temperatures near sunrise in the mid 50s to lower 60s F, temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s F by late morning for all but the southernmost parts of the area farther away from mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion. Then, temperatures rise further into the upper 70s F southernmost parts of the area and higher elevations into the mid 80s to lower 90s F elsewhere. By early evening, highs finally top out in the lower 90s F northeast of the Marfa Plateau and within the basins of Culberson County, with mid to upper 80s F Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, Lower Trans Pecos, southeast Permian Basin, and Terrell County, and mid to upper 90s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend. This will occur as winds become more consistently southerly as lee troughing over the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains restrengthens, and mid to upper ridging 3.5 to 4 standard deviations above normal holds. Tonight, temperatures fall into the 60s, 50s F higher elevations and northern Lea County by midnight, and then mid to upper 50s F, mid to upper 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin by daybreak Friday. By early afternoon, temperatures rebound into the mid 80s to lower 90s F areawide, a precursor to the beginning of the first day of 90F to 95F+ heat later in the day for the first time this year - temperatures more typical of mid to late May than mid to late March and at least 20F to 25F above average for this time of year. By late afternoon, temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s F northeast of the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau and within the basins of Culberson County, with mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County. It is not out of question that highs could reach or exceed the triple digits for the Big Bend along the Rio Grande. This heat will be accompanied by dew point temperatures largely remaining below 30F, keeping heat risk low, except within the reach of direct sunlight outdoors. No rain is expected due to strong sinking motion beneath the western CONUS ridge and weak forcing for ascent provided only by diurnally driven boundaries. EFI of 0.8 to 0.9 and SOT 0.5 to 1.0 will initially cover the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, before these anomalous EFI/SOT values for high and low temperatures expand nearly areawide by this weekend when the mid to late March early season heatwave peaks. More details on how the continued warmth might be expected to pan out this weekend into next week can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package. Summer-like temperatures persist through the weekend where additional record highs will likely be tied or broken. This is due to the upper ridge of high pressure centered near the forecast area. Surface lee troughing and low-level thermal ridging looks to develop over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Saturday and Sunday. This will result in breezy southwesterly winds and high temperatures in the upper 80s and upper 90s across most locations. Areas along the Pecos River, Rio Grande, and Presidio Valley are forecast to hit the triple digits. There remains a medium to high (50-80%) chance of temperatures ascending above 95 degrees this weekend for many locations across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Overnight lows remain above normal for this time of year in the 50s and 60s at least through Saturday night. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks from the heat this weekend! Another hazard to consider this weekend will be elevated fire weather conditions over many portions of the region due to very warm temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions.

Sunday night into Monday, guidance has a cold front sweeping through the region bringing cooler temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to stay above normal in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Another round of warm weather is in store heading into the middle of next week. Cluster analysis shows upper-level ridging amplifying over the region which will send temperatures back into the 90s for most. Dry conditions persist for the foreseeable future.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable winds at terminals throughout TAF period, with winds becoming more southerly 22Z-01Z, and these southerly winds persisting into the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 92 54 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 93 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 88 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 91 50 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 87 44 89 46 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 90 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 90 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 91 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.