textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today, before temperatures quickly recover Tuesday through Thursday.

- A secondary, stronger cold front intrudes upon the area late Thursday night/Friday morning, resulting in a much cooler weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

With the arrival of a cold front, the current, record-breaking heat wave has come to an end. Yesterday's high at Midland International Air & Space Port was 99, easily beating the old record of 91, set in 2018. Not only that, but this sets a new record high for March, beating the old record of 98 set Saturday.

Mesoanalysis at 05Z shows the front crossing through the I-10 corridor, and this will bring a little respite today for those who like cooler weather. The latest NBM suggests highs this afternoon almost 20 F cooler than yesterday, ~ 3-5 F above climatology and in the 70s most locations. This will also temper fire wx parameters somewhat, at least temporarily. Yesterday was uneventful in this respect, as the 20-ft winds were the missing ingredient, as suspected.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows an upper ridge extending from the eastern Pacific eastward to the ArklaTex this morning, and this will dominate local conditions over the next few days. Thicknesses begin increasing again this afternoon, resulting in an appreciable temperature recovery Tuesday as return flow resumes overnight, amounting to an increase of around 15 F over this afternoon's highs under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The upper ridge is still forecast too develop east through the week, w/the LREF centering it just east of Houston by Sunday afternoon. This will result in increasing thicknesses/temperatures through Thursday, when highs plateau for this forecast almost 25 F above normal.

To spoil the warmer weather, another cold front arrives beginning late Thursday night, w/the latest GFS putting fropa at KMAF at around 11Z Friday. This front looks stronger than the current one, threatening to drop highs Friday afternoon to levels similar to what's expected today, but even further Saturday, into the 60s most locations. This would be ~ 8-10 F below normal, and the nadir of this forecast. Fortunately, temperatures recover by around 10 F Sunday. A few showers will be possible in the Guadalupes Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Post-frontal winds will continue diminishing this morning, then veer back to return flow after sundown. A few high clouds are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 52 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 76 51 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 84 55 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 79 57 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 74 49 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 44 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 54 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 55 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 52 96 54 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.