textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

One more day of hot and dry weather with only a stray (10% to 15%) chance of showers/storms, before a cooling trend and increased chance of showers/storms beginning tomorrow. As the dryline that retrograded as far west as the Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos and Lea County this morning surges east, strong southwest winds will redevelop. These winds will be aided by increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough over the Intermountain West, and along with keeping critical fire weather concerns over SE NM and parts of W TX (see Fire Weather Discussion), the stronger west/southwest downsloping winds will allow highs to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations, triple digits over central and northeast portions of the area as well as along the Rio Grande, and 105F to 110F readings once more for the Big Bend. Highest chance for a stray shower/storm will be over the northern Permian Basin this evening. Tonight, the dryline again retrogrades into central portions of the area. Accompanied increased boundary layer moisture will again limit overnight cooling and keep lows in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F east of the dryline, while drier air west of the dryline keeps lows in the 50s to lower 60s F. Low to medium (25% to 40%) rain chances develop late evening into early morning Tuesday as disturbances within mid to upper flow aloft and a backdoor cold front developing in from the northeast provide lift and focusing of moisture for shower/storm development. No widespread severe risk is anticipated into the morning.

Tuesday will be a different story. With more disturbances developing northeast from the northern MX plateau into the Western Rolling Plains through the day, quickly renewed southeast upslope flow, and the dryline anchoring over east-central parts of the Permian Basin into Big Bend near the stalling cold front, lift and focusing of moisture both at the surface and aloft will be present for shower/storm development. Unlike tonight, severe weather will be possible tomorrow. SPC has eastern parts of the Permian Basin into Terrell County outlooked in a SLGT risk, with a MRGL risk over the the rest of the Permian Basin into the Upper Trans Pecos Big Bend. Storm coverage through the evening is expected to remain scattered with medium (35% to 50%) rain chances over easternmost regions and low (20% to 35%) farther west, unless storms can consolidate into a more numerous clusters or linear segments. Stronger storms have the potential to produce large hail up to 2" in diameter, damaging winds (especially if storm mode becomes more linear), and heavy rainfall. With strong directional shear from backed easterly winds, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the most rapidly intensifying severe storms, especially from Terrell County in to the southeast Permian Basin. Rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" over easternmost parts of the Permian Basin with amounts up to 1.00" may pose flooding concerns for low-lying and poor drainage areas. With increased clouds and rain chances over central and eastern parts of the area along with "cooler" humid upslope flow, highs largely in the mid 80s to mid 90s F are forecast, with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande. These cooler daytime temperatures will allow lows to drop into the 50s to lower 60s F for much of the area tomorrow night, while intermittent disturbances aloft maintain low (20% to 30%) shower/storm chances over northern and eastern parts of the area. Even cooler temperatures and higher shower/storm chances with continued severe weather risk continue into the end of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft will remain prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an upper- level trough over the western CONUS. A diffuse boundary will extend from the eastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Ascent will increase over much of our area as a series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft moves over the diffuse surface boundary Wednesday into Thursday. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will allow low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s over most locations along and east of the mountains. We are still expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best rain/storm chances over locations along and east of the mountains. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1 to 1.4 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Instability may be sufficient to bring at least a Marginal severe risk to portions of our area Wednesday and Thursday. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances Friday afternoon and evening. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (10-20%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will trend cooler Wednesday through the weekend behind the front and with the increased rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF period. Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots at terminals from beginning of the period, with winds decreasing after 23Z-01Z. Winds shift to southeast for terminals on Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau 00Z- 04Z this evening, and for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos 05Z-08Z tonight. Winds shift back to westerly thereafter, then backing to northerly as a cold front develops from northeast to southwest from 14Z into end of the period Tuesday morning. From Tuesday morning into early afternoon, there is a low to medium (25% to 40%) chance of showers/storms with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible at terminals on the northeast Permian Basin.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains through the early evening hours. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 90 60 78 / 0 40 20 60 Carlsbad 63 94 60 84 / 0 0 30 60 Dryden 72 96 67 87 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Stockton 66 97 64 87 / 0 10 0 60 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 58 90 56 75 / 0 0 30 80 Marfa 53 92 53 87 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 61 78 / 0 10 10 70 Odessa 68 93 62 79 / 0 10 10 70 Wink 62 95 62 83 / 0 0 10 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.