textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 100s.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning.

- Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front is currently making its way southward across the Texas Panhandle and will make to the region within the next few to several hours. There remains some uncertainty with just how far south this front will make it into the area. Should it stall out over the northern Permian Basin, there will be a better chance at showers and storms developing east of the dryline that has setup just to the east of the city of Pecos. Should the front make it further south before stalling, storms may be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos or portions of Big Bend. No matter where storms develop, they will be capable of being strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards in addition to brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Forecast highs will also be uncertain as they will depend on where the front ends up. Areas south of the front will once again reach into the 90s. Behind the front, much cooler air will move in where highs may not reach 80F.

By tonight, the front washes out and the dryline establishes itself once again over the western half of the CWA. Low level moisture is pulled westward with the dryline and an upper level disturbance makes its way in from the west. In addition to the upper level support, forecast PWATs move to between 1-1.3" east of the dryline. Climatologically, this would rank near or above the 90th percentile for May 20th. This spring setup is favorable for strong to severe storms as well as heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. Rain amounts will be tough to pin down as it will be dependent on how convection develops over the course of the day on Wednesday. A cooler airmass and rain keep it cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Heading into Wednesday evening, daytime convection begins to decay and move to the east out of the region. A lull in activity will be seen through Thursday morning. With the upper level disturbance moving off to the east, rain chances take a hit and will be low (10- 40%) over the course of the day. However, convection from Wednesday will have leftover boundaries and the dryline to aide in some activity developing and becoming strong to severe. Medium to long range guidance keeps this pattern in the area through this coming weekend with each day having a chance for showers and storms to develop. Temperatures see a slight warm up with most locations reaching into the mid to upper 80s, though this would be a few degrees below normal for late May. Overnight lows during this time would be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front will extend from far southeast New Mexico and through the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin this afternoon. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop over the eastern and southern Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos along this boundary this afternoon into this evening. We maintained a PROB30 mention of TSRA at KFST late this afternoon. Northerly to northeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with occasional higher gusts will gradually turn easterly late this afternoon into this evening. VFR generally remains prevalent through this afternoon and evening. There is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially over the Permian Basin near KMAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 59 77 60 / 40 10 40 60 Carlsbad 90 61 83 59 / 0 10 30 30 Dryden 95 66 84 64 / 30 30 40 80 Fort Stockton 94 63 85 61 / 10 10 60 60 Guadalupe Pass 84 60 79 58 / 0 10 20 20 Hobbs 85 55 75 55 / 0 10 40 40 Marfa 91 53 86 51 / 0 0 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 88 60 77 60 / 10 10 50 60 Odessa 89 61 78 61 / 10 10 50 60 Wink 91 61 82 60 / 0 10 40 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.