textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and storms are expected through this evening. Any strong to severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding.

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as additional disturbances move overhead.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

An active weather pattern persists through this evening as an upper level shortwave embedded within a larger trough over the western US progresses northeast over our area. Meanwhile, yesterday's frontal boundary has been relatively stagnant within our southern counties. This looks to eventually lift northward as a warm front early Thursday morning. Until then, lift associated with the front and the shortwave combine with sufficient shear and instability to support strong to severe storms through this evening. The strongest storms will pose a large hail, flash flooding, and damaging wind threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The area to monitor for severe storm development remains the Permian Basin, and the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos regions. Thus far, scattered storm activity is ongoing within the eastern Permian Basin, with at least pea to half inch sized hail having been reported at KMAF around midday. As per short-range model guidance, this current cluster of storms shall continue an east-northeast track through this afternoon. Another cluster of storms is beginning to take shape within our western counties and is expected to sweep eastward through this evening before exiting our region around midnight. This being the case, stay weather aware through the remainder of the day!

Tonight, showers/storms track eastward and temperatures fall into the 50s to low 60s. Another, weak shortwave impulse swings overhead Thursday. The dryline is progged to set up just west of the TX/NM border, near the western reaches of our region, by Thursday afternoon. Given this set up, additional shower/storm development will be possible Thursday afternoon. However, coverage looks generally more isolated compared to today. Rain chances Thursday afternoon and evening range from 10-40%, with the best odds over the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Again, any severe storms that develop will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The threat for flash flooding also increases Thursday due to occasionally heavy rainfall over already saturated soils from previous storms. Rain chances decrease shortly after midnight Thursday night. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s in the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, and 80s almost everywhere else. Similar to the previous night, lows Thursday fall into the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Upper level troughing persists over the western CONUS through much of the weekend, accompanied by shortwave impulses embedded within the flow. Through the weekend, isolated to scattered shower/storm activity will be possible each afternoon. Placement will depend on the collocation of the dryline and upper level disturbances. Early next week and into the middle of the week, an upper trough drops into Texas and becomes a mid-level cutoff low, allowing low rain chances to stay in the forecast each afternoon. Temperatures through the extended period look to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s during the afternoons, then cool into the 50s and 60s during the overnight hours. The hottest conditions are expected near and along the Rio Grande, as highs reach near to above the triple digit mark most afternoons.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A cluster of storms is currently moving east across the eastern Permian Basin, with another round of storms beginning to take shape over our westernmost counties. Scattered storms are expected to continue through this evening, before rain chances taper down overnight. Some of these may be severe, resulting in strong, erratic winds and periods of reduced visibility and at least MVFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 78 59 91 / 50 30 20 10 Carlsbad 58 88 59 93 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 63 84 63 90 / 50 30 30 20 Fort Stockton 60 85 62 92 / 40 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 80 58 82 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 54 81 55 91 / 30 20 10 0 Marfa 50 81 50 84 / 30 30 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 80 60 91 / 40 30 10 10 Odessa 59 81 61 91 / 40 20 10 0 Wink 59 85 59 92 / 30 20 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.