textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through this weekend with near record heat possible today. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if outdoors!

- Temperatures remain above normal next week, but begin to gradually cool.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico next week, with only very low chances (10-15%) this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the southwestern CONUS and into far west Texas. This ridge is expected to build over our area this afternoon, yielding widespread triple digit heat/potentially record-breaking highs. For reference, the previous record high of 101F was set in 1930 at Midland International Air and Space Port (forecast high is 102F). The hottest spots are forecast to be along the river valleys and far northeastern Permian Basin. Since temperatures across many locations in the far northeastern Permian Basin are forecast to max out near 105 degrees, a Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon. Aside from the heat, surface troughing and upslope flow may foster the development of isolated showers/storms mainly west of the Pecos River. Though a storm or two cannot be ruled out over the western Permian Basin/SE NM. However, subsidence under the ridge should limit storm coverage and magnitude.

Heights decrease slightly on Sunday as the ridge axis begins to move eastward. This results in a decrease of triple digit heat coverage where many spots cool 2-4 degrees. However, many spots along the river valleys and far northeastern Permian Basin can expect to see highs reach or exceed the century mark. Another round of convection is possible over the western higher terrain Sunday afternoon due to surface troughing and upslope flow once again.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper-level ridging is pushed eastward next week thanks to troughing to the north and west. As a result, while temperatures will remain above normal for mid-September, they will at least tick down throughout the week. Highs in the mid-to-upper 90s will be commonplace during the first half of the week, with temperatures just over 100 degrees in/near the river valleys. By Thursday and Friday, low-to-mid 90s become more prevalent across the area. Meanwhile, surface troughing and pulses in the flow aloft yield increasing rain chances daily across the western half of the area, especially in/around the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos River. Chances for these locations generally range from 20-50%. Going into next weekend, model spread and uncertainty begins to increase. The NBM at least suggests temperatures will continue to cool as ridging aloft is dampened by passing shortwaves. However, the extent of cooling remains uncertain. It also remains to be seen if these passing shortwaves will bring better rain chances to a larger portion of the area, or even try to push a front our direction. Details will be refined as model consistency increases, so stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours with southerly to southeasterly winds expected at most sites. Isolated convection may develop this afternoon/early evening but should remain in the higher terrain west of each terminal. Otherwise, Winds may occasionally gust up to around 20 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 104 76 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 104 75 102 73 / 10 10 10 0 Dryden 103 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 102 75 98 73 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 71 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 103 74 99 71 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 93 64 92 63 / 20 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 102 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 102 77 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 105 77 101 75 / 10 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.