textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Low chances (10-20%) of isolated storms through early Sunday evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas Monday through at least Wednesday.

- Windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains each day Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A large-scale upper trough accompanied by several shortwaves currently envelops much of the western half of the CONUS. The shortwave responsible for Saturday's stormy weather begins to depart to our northeast through the rest of this afternoon and evening. A few showers have percolated over Pecos and Reeves counties, driven primarily by lift from this feature. Storm coverage shall remain isolated (10-20% chance) over the Lower Trans Pecos. A storm or two may become strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Rain chances diminish overnight, with temperatures falling to the 50s and 60s.

Monday, the larger upper trough slowly treks over the Intermountain West. The jet streak associated with this feature begins to approach New Mexico Monday, increasing winds out of the southwest aloft. Meanwhile, a lee cyclone develops over the Plains, with a dryline extending south into the eastern portion of our area. These work in tandem to bring breezy southwesterly winds to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Monday afternoon. Winds will be stronger over the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains during the afternoon, eventually tapering down by the evening. Winds generally look to avoid High Wind criteria. Lift from the approaching jet streak and the dryline may aid in shower/storm development again over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon and through the overnight hours. Rain chances are forecast to range between 10-40%, with best odds over our southeastern counties. A couple of storms may be strong to severe, producing damaging winds and large hail within our easternmost counties. Temperatures Monday will mainly reach the 80s, then cool into the 50s and 60s Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The upper trough mentioned within the Short Term period lingers over the western CONUS through the first half of the week, This keeps strong southwesterly flow aloft, maximizing Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the surface, lee troughing also persists, maintaining a dryline near the eastern half of our region on Tuesday, then pushing a PAC front across Wednesday morning. The exact timing of this front is uncertain at this time. Previous analysis had time of arrival later Wednesday, indicating a need for further monitoring. Regardless, rain chances remain in the forecast over the Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend Tuesday, as showers/storms develop east of the dryline. Though the potential for severe weather is low Tuesday afternoon and evening, a storm or two may produce damaging winds and large hail within our easternmost counties. Rain chances begin to drop off with the arrival of the PAC front Wednesday morning. Aside from rain chances, breezy southwest winds are also expected over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon. Winds may briefly reach near High Wind criteria over the Guadalupe/Delawares Tuesday afternoon. Again, timing and duration of rainfall and strongest winds will depend on exactly when the PAC front sweeps through. Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday max out in the 70s within the higher terrain in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, with 80s generally expected elsewhere. Wednesday, the front shaves off up to 5 degrees off of afternoon highs compared to Tuesday.

Some models suggest upper ridging briefly returns Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rebound into the 80s to low 90s. However, winds look to become breezy both afternoons as a lee cyclone develops over the Plains ahead of another upper level trough. Dry, breezy conditions may result in increased fire weather concerns Friday, especially over southeast New Mexico. The front associated with this system currently looks to sweep through overnight Friday and into Saturday, dropping Saturday's highs into the 70s to low 80s, with cooler conditions Sunday. This front may also about some rain chances over our eastern portions as it pushes in. Of course, these impacts will depend on exact timing and strength of the cold front. Keep posted for updates!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly to southeasterly winds are forecast the whole period, with winds becoming breezy around 16Z to 18Z Monday afternoon. Winds then subside by 00Z to 02Z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 64 86 61 / 10 30 30 40 Carlsbad 85 57 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 86 65 83 63 / 20 40 40 50 Fort Stockton 87 60 87 61 / 10 30 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 75 55 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 85 55 83 51 / 0 10 0 10 Marfa 81 48 79 47 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 86 63 86 60 / 0 30 20 40 Odessa 86 63 85 60 / 0 30 20 30 Wink 87 59 86 56 / 0 20 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.