textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hazardous heat expected both today and Monday for the Upper Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and portions of the Permian Basin. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Heat stress will be a concern this upcoming work week with above normal temperatures in excess of 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an upper ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest extending into west Texas. This feature will bring hazardous heat today and Monday across portions of the area. For today, surface troughing coincided with a low-level thermal ridge develops over far southeast New Mexico and west Texas. As a result, expect triple digit temperatures between 100F and 109F across portions of the Upper Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and Permian Basin. Elsewhere, it is still going to be hot especially across portions of the Big Bend region, Davis, and Guadalupe Mountains ranging from the upper 80s to 90s, while spots along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley range from 105- 113F. Opted to not include these locations given most spots are expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, be sure to drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks in the shade if you find yourself outside this afternoon and early evening. Cannot rule out a brief isolated shower/storm across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau this afternoon, though most locations are going to be dry.

A hotter day looks to be in store on Monday as the upper ridge of high pressure strengthens and shifts slightly eastward. Guidance is in good agreement with 850mb temperatures spanning from the upper 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon across much of the region. These temperatures suggest hazardous heat in which heat products will most likely ( > 80%) be needed for similar areas including portions of the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley. The hot weather pattern is here to stay; see the long term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Most locations continue to see triple digit heat throughout the extended as upper-level ridging remains the dominant pattern across the southwestern CONUS. Guidance is still showing a couple of weak cold fronts approach our forecast area this week, but are expected to provide little to no relief. With that said, additional heat products will likely be issued in the coming days. Breezy winds are forecast each day in response to surface low pressure sitting over eastern New Mexico. Low rain chances remain confined to the higher terrain and adjacent plains, with the best chances (10-30%) possible during the latter part of the week.

Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A deck of low clouds continue at MAF until 15-16Z while other terminals remain in VFR conditions. Southerly to southwesterly winds (5-15 kts sustained) are expected this afternoon. A low- level jet develops again this evening bringing more breezy southerly to southeasterly winds (15-20 kts sustained with gusts up to 30 kts) across MAF, FST, HOB, and INK sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 75 105 75 / 0 0 20 10 Carlsbad 107 73 104 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 101 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 73 106 73 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 104 70 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 98 64 100 64 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 103 73 105 74 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 103 73 105 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 106 73 107 74 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.