textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Flash flooding will remain a concern over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County as heavy rainfall in strong to severe storms remains in the forecast for today (with most likely timing being from 3 pm to 9 pm).

- Strong westerly winds up to 35 mph are expected for the western higher terrain and SE NM plains Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

- Stronger northeasterly gap winds of at least 35 to 50 mph will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Heaviest rain tapers off to the east/northeast for the next two days, but unsettled weather remains in the forecast. Lee troughing over central and eastern parts of the area strengthens into a cold front and slowly progresses east through today. PoPs in the 35% to 55% range persist over Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Stockton Plateau, and eastern Permian Basin from this afternoon through evening. SPC has outlined these regions in a MRGL risk with a primary damaging wind threat, and high-res CAMs indicate greatest risk of storms will be within the 3 pm to 9 pm time window. While storm coverage is likely to remain scattered, any stronger storms could organize into more continuous linear or bowing structures. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out due to sufficient CAPE and shear, but primary risk with the strongest storms today will remain damaging winds, along with flash flooding as PWATs continue to average above 1.50". A 30% to 50% chance of rainfall anywhere from 0.50" to 0.75" is indicated in ensembles, and a Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Concurrent with the storm risk east of the cold front, we will also be dealing with strong west/southwest winds west of the cold front. Winds should be highest over the Guadalupes into SE NM plains and reaching at least 25 mph to 35 mph, but nonetheless remaining below High Wind criteria through Thursday morning. CAA will be slow to filter in behind the developing front, so the biggest cooldown today will be seen from highs not rising above the 70s F over the Guadalupes and remaining in the mid 70s F to lower 80s F for the Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains, while mid 80s to mid 90s F highs persisting elsewhere. A similar story in lows tonight is forecast: 50s F western higher terrain and SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, while remaining in the 60s to lower 70s F elsewhere.

Another cold front approaches from the north Thursday, resulting in winds shifting from west/southwest to northwest by the afternoon. Guidance has considerably backed off on magnitude and duration of strong winds above 50 mph for the Guadalupes and Delawares on Thursday, so at this time we are not anticipating any High Wind products. However, gusts up to 35 mph will still be possible over the Guadalupes and SE NM plains through the evening, prior to winds increasing further. CAA behind the secondary, reinforcing cold front will keep highs below the 90s F for most of the lowlands and below the 80s F for the western higher terrain into western and northern SE NM plains, while lows fall into the 50s and 60s F overnight. With the base of the mid to upper storm system that has lingered over CO/NM the past few days finally developing east and clipping the western parts of the area, strong winds will be able to mix down to the surface Thursday evening through Friday morning. Consequently, guidance is showing wind gusts up to 35 to 50 mph for the Guadalupe mountains and passes, and Delawares into the higher terrain of the Rio Grande basin. Still, guidance has also backed off on strength and duration of winds above High Wind criteria for late this week, so we do not anticipate any High Wind products for Thursday through Friday at this time. With gusty winds limiting overnight cooling, lows Thursday night remain similar to Wednesday night, albeit a few degrees cooler. Even cooler weather is in store for Friday through this weekend. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Northerly winds stay elevated above 25 mph with occasional gusts above 35 mph through Friday afternoon, as CAA behind Thursday's front continues. Highs will struggle to rise above the mid 70s F for most of the area north of the Rio Grande basin, remaining in the 60s F for western higher terrain and northern Lea County, and staying largely within the 80s F even for the southernmost parts of the forecast area near the Rio Grande. Following the relatively dry weather Thursday, PoPs again increase into the 25% to 35% range northeast of the Marfa Plateau (especially from the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos and northeast Permian Basin) in the more humid air behind Thursday's cold front. Persistent northerly/northeasterly winds decreasing with time overnight then allow for more efficient overnight cooling, dropping lows Friday night below 60 F north of the Rio Grande basin and into the 40s F for the Guadalupes as well as peaks and foothills of the Marfa Plateau. Highs Saturday rise to similar levels as highs Friday under continued northeasterly winds. Rain chances remain in the forecast over parts of the area to begin the weekend, due to surface high pressure remaining over the Rockies and core of ridging suppressing rain chances from sinking motion redeveloping farther west of the forecast area rather than directly overhead.

Redevelopment of mid to upper ridging west of the area late weekend through early next week allows for a moderation in temperatures beginning Sunday, following similar lows Saturday night to Friday night. Highs rise back into the 70s and 80s F by early next week, and there are indications of 90s F for southern and eastern portions of the lowlands by mid-week next week as near surface winds return to southeasterly. However, as a result of surface and mid-level ridging remaining offset away from the forecast area, daily showers/storms will remain in the forecast each afternoon/evening. Timing, coverage, and rainfall amounts in any storms late weekend through early next week are uncertain at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers and storms will continue impact terminals overnight with the highest confidence over CNM. Activity is expected to end by 12Z across all terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs may also occur, though confidence remains low to implement for most sites. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds will persist until early this morning. Winds shift westerly by late morning thanks to a cold front developing and moving eastward. This will bring additional scattered shower/storm potential during the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 65 87 63 / 40 50 10 10 Carlsbad 82 58 81 59 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 94 71 90 69 / 30 50 10 10 Fort Stockton 90 65 85 63 / 40 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 54 70 56 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 82 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 81 56 78 55 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 87 64 86 64 / 30 30 0 0 Odessa 87 65 85 64 / 30 20 0 10 Wink 88 63 86 64 / 10 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Andrews- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Martin- Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for Borden-Glasscock-Howard-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry- Terrell.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea- Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.