textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

An upper level ridge holds sway across much of the central US, but weakness in the ridge along the southern edge is allowing for unsettled weather across West Texas and into southeast New Mexico. Mesoanalysis shows PWATs between 1.5" and 2" across much of West Texas this afternoon and the 18z sounding has PWATs at 1.85" which is a record for the day. Scattered showers and storms will continue through this evening before a slight decrease in coverage occurs later tonight. Temperatures will be well moderated by the clouds and rain with many locations in the 60s to low 70s tonight. Highs on Tuesday stay well below normal in the 80s thanks to continued cloud cover and widespread rain chances.

A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect this evening at 10pm CDT and continues through to Thursday evening. Similarly high PWATs and a lack of stronger upper level winds will allow for storms that develop to move slowly or train together leading to bouts of heavy rainfall and a threat for flash flooding. Rain amounts will vary greatly across the CWA, but 1-2" is not out of the question for many spots, particularly south of I-10. Rainfall from convection today has been quite efficient with some spots recording an inch in an hour. Take extra caution when traveling on ranch or unpaved roads and paths over the next few days. There will be lulls in precipitation at times, but the threat for flash flooding will return each day as the long term discussion will explain below.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The heavy rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures continue through the end of the week. A weak upper-level low is expected to remain over west Texas slowly moving west-southwest throughout the week. Mid-level inverted troughing combined with deep southeasterly flow at the surface advecting Gulf moisture will provide a favorable setup for scattered to numerous heavy showers/storms each day. This repeated pattern and tropical environment poses the risk for flash flooding. The greatest area of concern still looks to be for areas along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor (Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mtns, Big Bend, and Rio Grande) Wednesday through early Thursday morning. Another threat to consider is the heavy rainfall along the Rio Grande potentially causing flooding issues where many summer vacationers will be camping near flood prone areas. The heavy rainfall threat expands northward into portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico as the upper low shifts slightly northwest Thursday into Friday. By the weekend, long-range guidance has an upper ridge of high pressure building in from the Rockies, pushing the upper low west/southwest into portions of far West Texas. As a result, the highest chance of rain/storms transfers to areas west of the Pecos River. Temperatures during the week are expected to range from the upper 70s to 80s areawide. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast early next week as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure builds farther south into the central and southern Rockies.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Intermittent showers with isolated storms will continue through the day before a decrease in coverage tonight. Easterly to southeasterly winds can be expected outside of any convection. Amendments will be necessary throughout the TAF period based on radar trends. CIGs will be near low VFR to MVFR for much of the period with poorer VIS and CIGs with storms moving over any terminals, but improving after storms pass.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 69 85 67 84 / 20 70 30 40 Carlsbad 67 87 67 86 / 20 60 20 30 Dryden 70 87 67 84 / 50 80 60 90 Fort Stockton 67 83 65 81 / 50 90 30 70 Guadalupe Pass 64 79 63 78 / 20 60 10 30 Hobbs 65 85 64 84 / 20 60 10 30 Marfa 59 78 56 77 / 40 90 30 80 Midland Intl Airport 68 84 66 82 / 20 70 20 50 Odessa 68 84 66 82 / 20 70 20 50 Wink 68 86 66 84 / 20 70 20 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

NM...None.