textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Low (15% to 20%) shower/storm chances over the Marfa Plateau this afternoon/evening and over the Lower Trans Pecos tomorrow afternoon/evening.

- Medium (35% to 45%) chance of strong to severe storms east of a dryline on Wednesday with a risk of damaging winds and heavy rain.

- Strong winds approaching wind advisory criteria over SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos, and high wind criteria over the Guadalupes on Wednesday. Lowered visibilities in blowing dust are possible.

- Another chance of strong to severe storms for the eastern Permian Basin Friday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Following showers/storms having developed last evening despite low probabilities, the biggest change in the forecast for the beginning of this week has been the increase in afternoon/evening shower/storm probabilities from near zero into the low (10% to 20%) range southwest of the Pecos River. This has occurred as high-res CAMS have trended to initiating more convection over heated elevated terrain and consolidation of lee troughing into a dryline has been stronger and occurred earlier than in previous forecast runs. Today, this region of showers/storms will encompass the region over and east of the eastern Marfa Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts scattered clouds drifting west to east in the quasi-zonal flow that has developed as mid to upper ridging over the southern CONUS has deamplified. With remnant weak ridging characterized by temperatures 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal across SE NM and W TX, temperatures today rise from the mid to upper 80s F, lower 80s F early this afternoon, into the lower 90s F along the Pecos River from Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains, basins of Culberson County, and from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend later this afternoon, while remaining in the 80s F elsewhere apart from mid to upper 70s F higher elevations. With diurnally-driven breezy southeast winds east of the dryline, dew point temperatures will climb into the mid 30s to mid 40s F, then lower 50s F most of Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County, 40s F Lea County into Presidio Valley by evening, while dew point temperatures remain in the mid 30s F west of the dryline for the Guadalupes into western Eddy County. Increased boundary layer moisture east of the dryline and warmer daytime temperatures taking longer to cool off west of the dryline will inhibit overnight cooling. As a result, temperatures fall below 80F, 70F higher elevations after sunset, but only below 70F, 60F higher elevations early Tuesday morning. Lows bottom out in the lower to mid 60s F, lower to mid 50s F Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, mid 40s to lower 50s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County.

Tuesday, increased mid to upper troughing will not yet have impinged into the area, allowing for another day of late spring- like temperatures areawide. Temperatures climb into the 70s F, 80s F northeast of the Marfa Plateau and southwest of Pecos River and Rio Grande basin by late morning, mid 70s to mid 80s F by early afternoon, and into the lower to mid 90s F along the Pecos River into much of the Permian Basin as well as the Rio Grande basin, mid to upper 80s F Upper north of Lower Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains, and upper 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations later in the afternoon. Shower/storm probabilities again tick up above near zero into the low (10% to 15%) range for the afternoon/evening east of the dryline, this time over the Lower Trans Pecos into Terrell County. No severe weather is indicated at this time and NBM rainfall totals have remained a few hundredths of an inch at most. Breezy southerly winds tomorrow will peak west rather than east of the dryline and remain breezy and from the southwest after sunset, resulting in a pace of temperature descent slower than Monday night and lows bottoming out in the 50s and 60s F. The shower/storm chances and windy conditions are not over after Tuesday. In fact, there are increasing indicators of strong storms over eastern parts of the area and strong winds later this week. Read the Long Term Discussion below for more.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mid to upper troughing over the Intermountain West to the northwest of the forecast area will continue to deepen and send frequent disturbances and accompanying weak surface cold fronts that provide forcing for ascent and focusing of moisture for development of showers/storms, paired with diurnally-driven afternoon/evening wind circulations near the dryline and momentum transfer from aloft to the surface generating gusty winds. Temperatures rise into the 70s to 80s F by noon Wednesday, then farther into the mid to upper 80s F north of the Rio Grande basin and Lower Trans Pecos and east of the Marfa Plateau, as shower/storm probabilities increase from low (20 to 25%) early afternoon into the medium (35% to 55%) range for eastern Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau, and low to medium (25% to 40%) range from northwest Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos down to Terrell County for the evening. SPC has currently outlooked regions east of the area in a marginal risk, but it is not out of the question that severe risk edges farther west if the position of the dryline (dependent on factors such as prior convection) ends up farther west. NBM indicates rainfall accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch, but trends in rainfall totals will have to be monitored before a more definite prediction of the flooding risk can be provided. To the west of the dryline, strong southwest winds sustained 25 to 35 mph, higher over the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, with gusts 35 to 55 mph, and above 65 mph for the Guadalupes were indicated Wednesday evening in previous runs as transport of westerly momentum in the quasi-zonal flow aloft makes it to the surface. However, these values have again trended down in most recent runs. East of the dryline there will also be a risk of strong winds, but within downbursts in storms rather than in the ambient flow. Wind products may still be needed for the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains and SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos, however, will leave this decision to the next shift since onset of strong winds only looks to be Wednesday morning at the earliest and winds have not demonstrated a clear upward trend between most recent runs. A cold front approaches from the north Wednesday evening as southwest winds shift to west/northwest. The CAA allows lows to drop into the mid to upper 40s F for the Marfa Plateau and westernmost and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, 50s F elsewhere north of the Rio Grande basin and northwest of the eastern Stockton Plateau and southeast Permian Basin, and lower to mid 60s F for the lower south and southeast portions of the area.

The forcing for ascent aloft ahead of the mid to upper air disturbance within long wave troughing for Thursday will be off to the east, while more zonal flow at the base of the departing trough overspreads the area. This maintains southwest winds across the area Thursday, especially for the Guadalupes into the Davis Mountains and leeward foothills over the Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos. Temperatures had trended up by at least 5F to 10F for Wednesday, now showing Thursday as the cooler of the two days by a few degrees. This will translate to mid to 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 90s F along the Rio Grande. NBM is indicating dew point temperatures dropping below 30F for much of the area Thursday as the dryline surges east, but despite this lows Thursday night end up a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night. Breezy southwest winds shift back to southerly in response of the next disturbance aloft developing in from the northwest Thursday night, before shifting back to the southwest Friday as the disturbance passes to the east and drags a Pacific cold front in from the Rockies. While the next disturbance brushes the area to the north and winds shift back to southwest, breeziest winds developing in response will be located to the northeast of the Pecos River and Marfa Plateau apart from the usual calmer spots near the Pecos River in the Upper Trans Pecos. PoPs once again climb into the low to medium range (30% to 45%) - this time Friday evening as the dryline retrogrades to the east and brings higher dew point temperatures 40F+ into much of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau - while a strong Pacific cold front develops down into the area from Central NM and the CO Front Range. Given the amount of dry air at the surface, the risk of strong downburst winds would not be out of the question, but uncertainty precludes further specifics about most likely types of severe risk for now. NBM is indicating Friday evening rainfall totals up to at least 0.25" to 0.50" forecast apparent over the eastern Permian Basin. As on Wednesday, trends in expected rainfall will have to be monitored before it can be determined how high the risk of flooding might get.

Troughing increases further over the Intermountain West for the first weekend of April, dropping temperatures down to 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above normal aloft and near average at the surface, meaning early spring-like temperatures rather than late spring-like temperatures for the first extended stretch of days in a while, despite broad and weak ridging aloft redeveloping over the Southern Great Plains. Highs rise into the 60s and 70s F, 80s F Rio Grande basin Saturday, fall into the lower 60s to lower 70s F for much of the area next Sunday, and only warm by a few degrees, remaining in the 60s and 70s F to start next week. Accompanying these cooler daytime temperatures will be lows falling back into the mid 30s to mid 40s F for much of the area. Low to medium rain probabilities are apparent in grids for the southern half of the area this weekend, likely due to models picking up on overrunning to the north of the Pacific cold front that clears the area continuing to generate shower/storm chances, when combined with destabilization of the atmosphere from daytime heating. However, this far out details of any rainfall chances after Friday's strong storm risk remains highly uncertain, and what is more certain is cooler, early spring-like weather by the first weekend of April.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals. Light winds this morning will become more established from the south with some occasional gusts near 20 mph, especially at MAF and FST. A few thunderstorms may develop out west, near the mountain regions but chances to affect terminals is too low attm to include in the TAF. Will continue to monitor radar trends and amend if needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 92 61 90 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 56 91 60 86 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 60 91 62 92 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 62 92 62 91 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 58 80 58 76 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 54 88 54 84 / 10 0 0 10 Marfa 48 84 50 82 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 60 91 61 89 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 60 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 58 93 58 88 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.