textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Cooler temperatures return this weekend behind a cold front passing across the region early this morning.

- A warming trend returns Tuesday through Friday of next week, with near record temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions possible by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 147 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough almost east of the area, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a Pac front has pushes through the area, and a cold front is entering the Panhandles and should fropa KMAF at around 12Z or so. This will bring an end to the critical fire wx and high winds that the region has experienced the past week.

Instead, under dry, northwest flow aloft, the cold front will shave almost 15 F off of yesterday's temperatures, for highs around 3-5 F below climatology.

Tonight, winds will begin veering back to return flow, but will go light/variable. Although a fetch of high cloud will increase from the southwest, these light winds and initial CAA will promote efficient radiational cooling, resulting in a freeze for most locations and the coldest temperatures since the beginning of the month.

Sunday, colder air finally makes it to the border under increasing cloud cover, resulting in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what's forecast for today. Fortunately, this looks to be the coldest day this forecast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will prevail across west Texas and southeast New Mexico each day next week. Surface ridging over our area Sunday night will gradually shift to our east on Monday, allowing for a return to southerly winds over most areas by Monday afternoon. Monday morning will start off quite chilly with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s for the most part with highs Monday afternoon topping out in the 60s.

Surface lee troughing will develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. Low level thermal ridging will become enhanced over our forecast area along this feature both days and will be most pronounced on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend much warmer across the region with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday and near record levels in the 80s over most of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon (except 70s in the mountains and reaching in the lower 90s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Temperatures on Wednesday have a chance to at least tie the record of 86 degrees set at MAF in 2009. Breezy westerly winds may also develop on Wednesday afternoon along the surface trough axis with low afternoon relative humidity also increasing fire weather concerns. A cold front may push through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing winds back around to the north and temperatures back down into the 70s to lower 80s over much of the region. Another lee surface trough may develop again by Friday, with temperatures staying above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will also be mild through the middle to latter part of the week, with readings mostly ranging in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A cold front will move into the area overnight, resulting in winds veering to north by sunup. A few high clouds are anticipated. Winds veer to the east after sundown Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 61 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 35 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 31 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 61 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 29 60 33 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.