textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 - A cold front moving through the area this afternoon will bring below-normal temperatures to the area Thursday.

- An upper-level storm system will bring a low (10-30 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Davis Mountains and Trans Pecos on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next week. Tuesday should be the warmest day this forecast as highs average over 10 F above normal.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current satellite imagery and observations show the cold front stalling along the higher terrain of the Davis to Guadalupe Mountains. Southwesterly flow aloft has kept a thick of high cloud cover over portions of west Texas throughout the morning. Latest trends have suggest this deck of clouds will thin out by the afternoon, resulting in temperatures rising into the 70s to low 80s for most locations. An upper-level jet streak is also prevalent over the region bringing the possibility of brief high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon through tonight. A surface high pressure begins to build in from the Rockies supplying cooler temperatures for tonight. Lows are expected to range from the upper 30s to low 50s for most locations, except for areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley spanning in the 60s to low 70s. Breezy winds are expected overnight into Thursday morning due to a reinforcing cold front. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region bringing a low (10-30%) chance of storms over the Stockton Plateau. Storms look to remain non-severe, though hail up to the size of nickels and damaging winds may occur with the strongest storm.

Thursday, the aforementioned high pressure makes its way into west Texas providing cool temperatures for early May in the upper 60s and 70s. Subtle upper-level ridging allows for partly to mainly clear skies during the afternoon. Thursday night, high cloud cover develops over portions of the region as an upper-level low approaches from the west. As a result, warmer lows are forecast in the upper 40s to low 60s regionwide. This system looks to bring increased rain chances late in the week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to be just southwest of El Paso, and will move through West Texas during the afternoon and evening, resulting in a chance of convection in the Davis Mountains/lower Trans Pecos. A slight chance of convection will also be possible in the lower Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon on the tail-end of the trough. Despite the trough, thicknesses will be on the increase, combining with return flow to add ~ 8-9 F to Thursday's highs.

An upper-level ridge follows the exiting trough, resulting in generally dry, northwest flow aloft. This will keep highs each day at or above normal Saturday through midweek of next week, despite a weak, dry, cold front Sunday. Tuesday/Wednesday round out the extended w/some of the warmest temperatures this forecast. Attm, temperatures this forecast look to peak on Tuesday afternoon at over 10 F above average. The extended stays dry beyond Saturday except for Wednesday afternoon, when long-range models suggest a little convection in the Davis Mountains. Otherwise, grids stay dry.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR remains at all terminals. Cold front passes through the region between 6-9z tonight shifting winds out of the north and northeast. Post-frontal wind gusts begin to decay by mid-morning Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 48 76 56 84 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 48 77 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 73 60 87 / 10 20 0 10 Fort Stockton 54 75 57 87 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 48 69 53 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 44 75 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 77 47 81 / 0 10 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 50 75 57 84 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 50 75 57 84 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 51 76 56 85 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.