textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- The sharp warming trend persists today lasting through the weekend. Increasing likelihood of multiple high temperature records tied or broken this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Nighttime IR satellite imagery once again depicts mid to high level scattered and broken cloud cover drifting north to south across the area. This persist in the northerly flow on the backside of troughing over the eastern CONUS. This is despite mid to upper ridging from the western CONUS 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal building over the area. The overall western ridging/eastern troughing mid to upper air pattern will maintain northerly flow and a weak cold front around sunrise today, before near surface winds veer back to southerly this afternoon through this evening as lee troughing redevelops over the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains. With dew point temperatures still largely in the 20s F and under mostly clear skies, temperatures rise from the 40s and 50s F this morning to the mid 60s to mid 70s F early this afternoon, and then mid 70s to lower 80s F, upper 80s to lower 90s F along the Rio Grande late afternoon into evening as anomalous mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion maintains its grasp. Lows then fall into the 50s and 60s F by midnight and into the mid 40s to mid 50s F by daybreak Thursday as dew point temperatures remain largely below 35F but slowly inch upward. Light winds and dew point temperatures remaining below 40F maintain a diurnal range of at least 20 to 25 degrees and the air will still feel dry as temperatures rebound into the mid 70s to lower 80s F by noon tomorrow, and into the mid 80s to lower 90s F by late afternoon and early evening. Winds at the surface will remain light and southerly along with dew point temperatures still largely below 40F and still in the 20s F over western higher terrain into SE NM plains. The warm and dry spring weather starts to take a turn to more summer-like and genuinely warm to hot weather by late this week and continuing into the weekend. More details on this can be read in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Potential record-breaking heat is expected Friday through the weekend as an upper-level ridge inches closer to the region. High temperatures throughout these days will range from the upper 80s to upper 90s with some spots along the Rio Grande, Pecos River, and Presidio Valley hitting the triple digits. Cluster analysis maintains great agreement in the positioning and strength of the upper high pressure system through the weekend, further increasing confidence in very warm temperatures for mid to late March. Surface lee troughing and low-level thermal ridging develops over west Texas and southeast New Mexico both on Saturday and Sunday. This will result in breezy southwesterly winds and the warmest temperatures occurring during the weekend (mid to upper 90s for most locations). Overnight lows remain above normal in the 50s and 60s at least through Saturday night. Sunday night into Monday, guidance has a cold front sweeping through the region bringing cooler temperatures. High temperatures look to remain above normal in the mid 70s to mid 80s. More warmer weather is in store heading into the middle of next week as upper-level ridging reamplifies over the region.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions remain at all terminals. Winds shift to the south and southeast by this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 48 92 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 50 93 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 47 88 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 91 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 84 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 91 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 85 44 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 49 90 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 50 90 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 46 92 51 96 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.