textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Warmer and drier conditions return this weekend, with the exception of areas across the Davis Mountains extending into the Big Bend.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Radar imagery as of 2 AM CDT show thunderstorms dissipating across portions of southeast New Mexico. For today, weak upper-level ridging begins to build back into the region, supplying warmer and drier conditions for most. High temperatures are expected to reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations. Weak disturbances aloft combined with surface troughing and upslope flow induces isolated to widely scattered storm development during the afternoon/evening across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. Remnant outflow boundaries from the TX Panhandle supply a low chance (10-20%) for isolated storms across the Permian Basin today. High resolution forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V profiles, high DCAPE ( > 1000 J/kg) values, high PWATs (75th to 90th climatological percentile), "skinny" CAPE profiles, and sufficient deep-layer shear signaling a heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat associated with the strongest storms.

Tonight, upper-level ridging continues to build into the region. Lows are forecast to span from the 60s to low 70s for most locations. Drier and warmer conditions persist on Sunday from the influence of the aforementioned ridge. Disturbances in the flow aloft will provide low rain/storm chances (10-30%) for areas across the Davis Mountains into the Big Bend region during the afternoon. A more active and cooler weather pattern takes shape next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Another upper-level system approaches the region beginning on Monday, providing an active weather pattern through at least the middle part of next week. Rain chances start to increase for the western half of the region as the storm system approaches. Long- range guidance has what is going to be the remnants of Hurricane Polo being absorbed into the aforementioned storm system. This is going to supply vast amounts of upper-level and surface moisture transport, resulting in areawide rain chances by Monday night lasting through Wednesday. Guidance has indicated Tuesday will be the "rainiest" day per the positioning of both systems. Ensemble guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near and even exceeding daily maximum climatological values throughout Tuesday. Therefore, the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding returns. There remains uncertainty regarding the exact setup and specific impacts with this upcoming system. We will continue to monitor trends closely. Besides the rain, a cold front is forecast to move through the region sometime on Wednesday/Wednesday night bringing cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions and similar temperatures (low to upper 80s) are expected behind the front Thursday and Friday.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions throughout TAF period, except for MVFR or lower conditions in any heavier showers/storms. Isolated showers/storms forecast through mid morning from the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau through Permian Basin, with main impacts being lightning and brief heavy rainfall. There is a low (10% to 20%) chance of additional showers/storms later this afternoon through early evening, but exact timing and coverage are uncertain, and rain chances are too low for a mention in TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 93 70 95 71 / 20 20 0 0 Carlsbad 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 95 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 93 69 93 70 / 30 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 63 82 64 / 10 0 0 20 Hobbs 87 64 89 64 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 86 60 87 61 / 30 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 91 70 93 70 / 20 20 10 0 Odessa 90 71 92 71 / 20 20 10 0 Wink 93 69 94 70 / 10 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.