textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through the week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor.

- The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the junction of Montana/South Dakota/Wyoming, substantially farther northeast than 24 hours ago. As a result, local thicknesses/ temperatures continue to decrease, shaving 2-3 F off of yesterday's temperatures. For those who prefer cooler weather, highs this afternoon should average around a degree below climatology. Assisting this will be convection along a boundary moving into the area from the north and another batch of convection developing up from Mexico.

These two areas of convection will merge overnight, and chances will generally increase. Rainfall/evaporative cooling may shave a couple of degrees off of this morning's lows.

Monday, deep easterly flow will advect abundant moisture into the area, deeply saturating soundings and increasing PWAts. By mid- afternoon, the NAM and GFS increase PWATs at KMAF to 1/74" and 1.78", respectively. The 100th percentile is 1.70", and the daily record is 1.76". If we can get a shortwave or two moving in under the ridge from the coast, rain chances will increase substantially. That said, our chances would be better if we had an inverted trough just to our west, so confidence is moderate at best. These increased rainfall chances, as well as overcast skies, should knock around 5 F off today's temperatures, yielding highs ~ 5-7 F below normal.

Excellent rain chances continue into Monday night, w/CAMs putting best chances along/south of I-20. If rainfall between now and then pans out, a flood watch may be warranted for later in the week. Overnight minimums will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so cooler.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The Long Term forecast features an active weather pattern. An upper ridge will be centered near the northern Plains through most of the week, before shifting back toward the Intermountain West later this weekend. With the ridge so far displaced, moisture within southeasterly surface flow pairs with several disturbances rolling along the ridge's edge, promoting rounds of rainfall through the next several days. Tuesday afternoon looks to be our best shot for widespread rainfall across the region, as an upper low traverses westward over Texas. At least a low chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms can be expected each afternoon and evening (potentially continuing into the overnight hours) of the forecast period. Given multiple rounds of rainfall and PWAT values between 1- 2" (above the 90th percentile), areas with saturated soils will be at risk of flooding, especially during occasions of heavy rainfall. The highest probability of flooding looks to be near and south of the I-20 corridor, where rain chances shall tend to be best over the coming days. The primary locations for flood threats remain low- lying areas and river valleys. Rain chances begin to taper down during the weekend as ridging builds back in.

Rainfall, cloudy skies, and an overall increase in moisture aids in keeping temperatures below normal this week. Afternoon highs are progged to reach into the 80s at most locations, while those in and near the higher terrain top out in the 70s. Highs in the 90s return along the Pecos River valley on Saturday. Overnight lows are forecast to mainly settle into the 60s (50s in the mountains).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

MVFR CIGs have moved into HOB and should stay for a few hours before exiting. Later this morning, MVFR CIGs are expected at FST before CIGs lift to VFR late morning. MVFR CIGs are possible at any TAF sites briefly in SHRA/TS though it is not indicated in the TAFs. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

TS/SHRA will develop area wide after 15Z Monday. Have placed mention at some of the terminals though there is still uncertainty in the timing. Even if convection is not at the terminal, there will be convection in the local flying area impacting aviation ops.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 69 85 66 82 / 50 80 40 60 Carlsbad 68 87 66 84 / 50 60 30 60 Dryden 71 88 68 84 / 70 90 80 90 Fort Stockton 68 84 65 81 / 60 90 60 80 Guadalupe Pass 64 80 63 76 / 40 70 20 60 Hobbs 65 85 63 82 / 20 60 30 40 Marfa 59 79 56 76 / 60 90 70 80 Midland Intl Airport 69 83 66 81 / 50 80 50 70 Odessa 69 83 66 81 / 50 80 40 70 Wink 69 85 66 82 / 50 80 40 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.