textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon/evening over western portions of the region, while storm chances decrease on Monday. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- An isolated storm or two is possible over the higher terrain Monday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For those who prefer cooler weather, today is your day. WV imagery shows an inverted trough moving west through the Big Bend Area, infringing upon a broad, upper ridge centered over northeast Texas and spanning most of the southern CONUS. Besides producing mainly a shower or two in the Big Bend, the trough has locally lowered thicknesses over the region. This will combine with the ridge offset to the northeast to yield afternoon highs averaging only around 5 F above climatology. there will be a chance of convection mainly over the Marfa Plateau/Davis Mountains, perhaps enhanced by the trough as it moves west through the area.

This activity should dissipate early this evening. With a relatively light LLJ and decreased cloud cover, overnight minimums should be similar to this morning's, if not a degree or so cooler, around 5 F above normal.

Monday, with the trough forecast to have moved west into Chihuahua, thicknesses begin increasing again, adding a degree or so to this afternoon's highs. Convective chances look lower and farther west than this afternoon.

Monday night, the LLJ looks even wimpier, and with little cloud cover, this could be the coolest night this forecast, maybe a degree or so cooler than tonight. Thus, the extended can only be warmer/drier.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The forecast remains om track for above normal temperatures to continue next week as the upper-level ridge remains dominant over the region. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s can be expected each day this work week for most, with the hottest spots ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande. We cannot rule out an isolated storm or two over the mountains each afternoon due to upslope flow and diurnal heating. Otherwise, sinking motion under the ridge keeps keeps most dry through the extended. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow, with a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a cu field late Monday morning invof KMAF/KFST/KCNM, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL. Convective chances are too low any terminals for a mention attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 88 68 90 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 69 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 89 61 91 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.