textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Cool and dry conditions will continue today and Monday.

- Temperatures warm back to well above normal readings Tuesday through Saturday. Record warmth and elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge over the Rockies all the way up into Canada, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. The 00Z KMAF raob came in w/a pwat of 0.16", which is around the 8th percentile, so don't expect rain anytime soon, especially in this pattern.

Yesterday, thanks to a cold front intruding upon the area, highs topped out a measly 5-7 F below normal. Today, despite the ridge building into the region, CAA will continue moving south until surface winds veer back to return flow during the afternoon. A fetch of high cloud will stream in from the west, retarding insolation. All this will result in shaving 3-4 F off yesterday's highs. The silver lining to this will be that today will be the coldest day this forecast.

Tonight, with return flow back in place, a 35 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with continued high cloudiness to keep overnight minimums a degree or so warmer than tonight's lows. Even so, many areas will see a freeze for the second night in a row.

Monday, with the ridge anchored to the west, but return flow in place, temperatures will begin recovering, topping out ~ 2-4 F above normal under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Dry weather conditions will continue across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Saturday underneath northwesterly flow aloft. Low level thermal ridging will strengthen along a lee surface trough that will take shape across our forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back to well above normal levels along this feature both days. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the majority of our forecast area. Wednesday still looks to be warmest day of the week with highs reaching near record levels in the mid to upper 80s across a good portion of our region. A few locations along the Rio Grande and into the Lower Trans Pecos are forecast to reach into the lower 90s on Wednesday afternoon. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds and very low afternoon relative humidity values will also increase fire weather concerns on Wednesday. A cold front still looks to push through our forecast area on Thursday, knocking highs back down into the 70s over most of the CWA, except for readings in the lower to mid 80s along portions of the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. Surface lee troughing should re- develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas again Friday and Saturday, with highs both day back into the 80s over much of our region. Another cold front may bring temperatures down about 5-10 degrees cooler by Sunday, but temperatures will still be quite a bit above normal in the 70s and 80s. Early morning lows will remain mild in the 40s and 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds early this morning will pick up from the east to southeast later this morning into this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 57 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 31 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 61 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 58 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 33 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 55 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 26 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 56 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 57 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.