textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Near- to record-breaking high temperatures through Sunday.

- A cold front intrudes upon the region Sunday night/Monday morning, taking highs closer to normal Monday afternoon before a quick recovery by late in the week.

- Chances of rain are slim-to-none.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The heat is on! WV imagery this morning shows a dominating upper ridge centered over southwest Arizona, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, meridional flow aloft. At the surface, return flow continues, and will linger through the short term. As such, unseasonably warm temperatures will persist. Yesterday, Midland International Air & Space Port set a new record of 91 F, beating the old record of 90 F set in 2017. The next 3 days or so look like low-hanging fruit as well, as highs today and Saturday will plateau a good 20-25 F above climatology, making it feel more like late June than late March. Tonight, despite a 30 kt LLJ to keep mixing in play, mostly clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling. Even so, overnight minimums will average 10-15 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A series of upper-level troughs will flatten the ridge over the weekend as it builds east, but not before one last day of unseasonably warm temperatures. Sunday, will be very similar to today and Saturday, w/Model Certainty suggesting it could edge up just a skosh to be the warmest day this forecast. Near-critical to critical fire wx conditions will be possible during the afternoon.

Sunday night, a cold front from one of the aforementioned upper troughs skirting the upper CONUS is forecast to intrude upon the area, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF ~ 07Z Monday. This front will knock upwards of 15 F off temperatures Monday afternoon, making Monday the coolest day this forecast. Even so, highs will still come in ~ 7-9 F above normal.

For the rest of the week, the upper ridge will continue developing east and attempt to strengthen, w/the LREF centering it over the lower Trans Pecos by Thursday afternoon. This will result in increasing thicknesses from Monday afternoon onward, resulting in a respectable temperature recovery Tuesday-Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, highs should average just over 20 F above normal.

Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern offers little in the way of moisture return, and the grids remain dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-level ridging. Surface winds will be light/variable, but generally out of the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 57 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 95 52 97 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 55 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 61 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 53 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 96 54 97 54 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.