textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

- Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains through Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A broad dryline has developed this afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin. Convergence and instability along this feature is causing a few storms to develop with the help of daytime heating. Shear is marginal but we could see a storm or two become severe with large hail and strong winds the main threats. The dryline retreats back west overnight before surging back east tomorrow in a near carbon copy of what is happening today. Additional lift from an upper trough and jet stream will increase the storm coverage and PoPs increase to 40 to 50 percent in the far eastern counties. Highs will be similar to today reaching the 80s for most locations which is pretty typical for April.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Westerly flow then dominates for the middle and end of the week, keeping the dryline just far enough east that rain chances should generally remain in the Big Country and Hill Country of central and west-central Texas. Cannot rule out a rogue shower from Big Lake to Snyder but rainfall amounts will be very little. Highs should hold in the 80s to lower 90s throughout this week since there are no upper features moving across the area to provide any change.

Friday an upper level trough moves out of the intermountain west and into the Great Plains. Unfortunately the best lift will be north of the area and this system will provide more wind than anything else. It is possible that pressure falls ahead of the trough could hold the dryline far enough west that some of the eastern counties in our CWA could see some rain chances but most of the area will be dry, windy, and quite possibly dusty. The trough moves east of the area and a cold front moves through Saturday bringing quite pleasant temperatures for the weekend with slightly below normal highs in the 70s.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions look to prevail through the period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will bring in moisture overnight which may cause low clouds (MVFR) to develop near MAF and FST terminals. There is very low confidence in this occurring, thus, left the lower CIGs out. Strong to breezy southerly and southwesterly winds are expected late this morning throughout the afternoon across all terminals. Rain/storm chances increase late this afternoon into the evening hours especially across FST and MAF sites, however, high uncertainty remains how far west storms will form at the moment.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Have left the Tuesday Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and will let one more shift look at conditions before making a final decision. At this time, it appears minimum afternoon humidities will be a little to high to warrant a Red Flag Warning but again will wait 12 hours to see if models drop them any. A dryline will push east into the Permian Basin daily bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, but the day to watch is Friday. An upper low moving into the Great Plains will bring windy and dry conditions and Friday afternoon should see critical fire weather conditions across a good portion of the area. The limiting factor could be fuel moisture in the eastern basin and lower Trans Pecos. Fire fighters should monitor Friday as the biggest day of concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 62 86 54 / 30 50 20 0 Carlsbad 85 54 81 49 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 83 63 85 62 / 40 50 20 10 Fort Stockton 87 62 86 56 / 20 30 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 71 51 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 84 54 81 49 / 10 20 0 0 Marfa 80 49 78 43 / 10 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 84 56 / 20 40 10 0 Odessa 86 62 84 55 / 20 40 10 0 Wink 87 60 84 50 / 10 20 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea.