textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

- Low to medium (30-60%) rain chances are in the forecast areawide tonight. Though rainfall totals look light, a storm or two may produce damaging winds and large hail over the eastern Permian Basin.

- Breezy to windy conditions expected with cold fronts Thursday and Friday. Highest winds expected over the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains.

- Temperatures drop near to below normal over the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Above normal warmth continues today with most of the area reaching into the 70s. Upper level low approaches from the west late this afternoon and brings increased moisture and lift to the region. A developing surface low moves out of southern New Mexico and into the Panhandle late tonight. A dry front pushes in from the west as the surface low progresses to the east. Hi-res guidance suggests showers and a few thunderstorms developing with this front as it moves through the area. Best rain chances will be mainly north of the I-10 corridor, but a few showers or storms cannot be ruled out to the south. Forecast soundings near Midland/Odessa and points east do not show a robust environment for severe weather, but with somewhat steep lapse rates and added shear, damaging winds and even the threat of large hail are present. Despite the potential for isolated severe storms, rain will be tough to come by as plenty of dry air will need to be overcome before rain begins to fall, especially in SE NM and around the Davis Mountains. Low level moisture advection from the southeast will improve chances for rain making it to the ground over parts of the Permian Basin.

The front, along with the showers and isolated storms, will move through the area beginning just before midnight local time and push out of the area before sunrise Thursday morning. Lows tonight settle around or just above 50F where better moisture keeps temperatures from falling into the 40s. Have upgraded the inherited High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning as the aforementioned upper low moves across the region bringing damaging wind gusts to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Breezy conditions are expected for the rest of the region as the front moves through and persist through the day on Thursday. Highs on Thursday end up about 10 or so degrees cooler compared to today's expected highs, but will still be above normal for early January.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

The axis of the upper-level trough that will aid in bringing us rainfall in the short term period digs into Arizona and New Mexico Thursday evening. By this time, the shortwave that led to breezy to strong winds earlier Thursday will have lifted northeast, allowing winds to taper down and rain chances to diminish. However, strong winds rounding the base of the approaching trough look to elevate winds across the region once again later Thursday night through the day Friday. The strongest winds can be found in and near the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains, where high wind products are again likely in the near future.

Temperatures Thursday night are forecast to bottom out in the mid 30s to mid 40s, then warm into the 50s/60s Friday afternoon. Friday night, the trough sends a cold front into our region, ushering in much colder air from the north. Winds calm down by Saturday morning as temperatures around sunrise sit in the 20s to low 30s, with portions of northern Lee County and the Davis mountains in the teens. Cold air advection continues Saturday as surface high pressure lies near the Rockies. Saturday's highs reach the upper 40s to low 50s, then dip into the 20s (teens again in/near the Davis' and northern Lee County) Saturday night. Over the weekend, the upper trough continues to track northeastward. In response to this, heights increase and surface high pressure shifts toward the southern CONUS Sunday into Monday. Afternoon temperatures rebound into the 50s both days, then into the 50s/60s Tuesday. Low precipitation chances may return to our southern counties Sunday evening into Monday afternoon as another system swings out of northwestern Mexico.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Light winds continue through the morning. Rain chances increase around and after 00z this evening. TS/RA not included with this issuance as confidence is low on timing of impacts at terminals. VFR at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 51 68 41 / 0 40 10 0 Carlsbad 73 47 63 40 / 10 60 0 0 Dryden 79 55 76 45 / 0 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 83 51 69 42 / 0 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 40 52 35 / 10 70 10 0 Hobbs 72 44 63 37 / 0 40 0 0 Marfa 75 37 60 30 / 0 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 51 66 42 / 0 30 0 0 Odessa 75 50 66 42 / 0 30 0 0 Wink 75 47 66 38 / 0 30 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.