textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue across the region through this week and into the weekend. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-30%) afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend today. Isolated storms may also develop over parts of southeast New Mexico and the far western Permian Basin. Dry weather conditions continue over the rest of the region.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each day over western portions of the region Thursday through the weekend, with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper-level ridge will continue an eastward shift today and will become oriented from Texas to the Gulf Coast states by this afternoon. A surface trough will meanwhile extend from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend this afternoon. Today still looks to be the hottest day of the week across our forecast area underneath the upper ridge and along the surface trough axis. High temperatures will range between 100-105 degrees across the southeast New Mexico Plains, the Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin this afternoon. Highs in the mountains range in the lower to mid 90s with readings along the Rio Grande as hot as 103-108 degrees. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) will develop over the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend again during the afternoon hours, while other isolated (10-15%) convection develops over the Guadalupe Mountains, portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and possibly the far western/northwestern Basin by late this afternoon into early this evening in association with a weak shortwave impulse embedded on the western periphery of the ridge and convergence along the surface trough. A few storms will be capable of producing brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. Coverage should diminish after sunset, though isolated cells could linger over far western and southwestern portions of the CWA. Lows tonight remain warm in the 70s over much of the region, except 60s in the higher terrain.

The upper ridge becomes centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast on Thursday, but still maintains an influence over our area along the western side of the ridge axis. The surface trough also continues to extend into our western CWA Thursday afternoon. Plentiful moisture and convergence along this feature will support a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms again over our western and southwestern zones, with the best chances (30-60%) favored over the Davis Mountains, Marfa and Stockton Plateaus and portions of the Van Horn Corridor/Upper Trans Pecos. Isolated late afternoon afternoon/evening showers/storms may also develop as far east as the northwestern/western Permian Basin. Dry conditions otherwise continue over the rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos in closer proximity to the upper ridge. A few storms could once again produce strong and gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Another hot day can otherwise be expected with highs reaching up to 98-103 degrees over much of the region, except for lower 90s in the mountains and readings up to 103-109 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper-level ridge will slowly build/retrograde westward over the southern CONUS late this week through early next week. Deep layer moisture over western portions of our forecast area will support at least scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Marfa Plateau on Friday. Daily isolated to scattered storms will continue over these western zones through the weekend before moisture gradually shifts more to our west by early next week as the ridge strengthens over our region. Hot temperatures otherwise persist through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with continued S/SE winds. A few TSRA will develop over the Trans Pecos this afternoon and will opt to include a PROB30 mention of TSRA at KFST between 20Z-00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 77 102 75 / 0 10 0 10 Carlsbad 102 74 100 74 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 102 77 101 77 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 75 99 74 / 20 20 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 91 69 90 69 / 10 20 10 20 Hobbs 102 72 100 72 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 93 64 92 64 / 20 20 40 30 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 Odessa 101 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 10 Wink 103 76 101 75 / 10 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.