textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The lack of heating has caused convection to dissipate this morning. Yesterday was only round one of several days of expected showers and storms developing in the afternoon and early evening, then diminishing as the atmosphere stabilizes overnight. The main threat area for heavy rainfall in the short term will be the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend where orographic lift and closer proximity to an upper level low will provide the best lift. Precipitable water values will also be highest south of I-10 so not only will the rain coverage be greatest in this area, they will be proficient rainfall producers and create a persistent threat for flash flooding. Therefore the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. The moisture, cloud cover, and showers keep temperatures well below normal in the short term with highs holding in the 80s for most locations...even along the Rio Grande which is quite nice for July.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

An upper low slowly moving west, pushed along by high pressure well north of the area provides significant rain chances from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend Thursday and Friday. Drier air gets pulled into southeastern New Mexico on the western side of the low so unfortunately, rain chances will be much lower in the northwestern CWA. The low moves into northern Mexico Saturday, finally pulling moisture into the western counties and giving southeastern New Mexico it's best chances for rain. Stability increases Sunday as the low exits the area and rain chances return to normal, highlighting the higher elevations west of the Pecos River with isolated to scattered showers and storms. The drier conditions also allow temperatures to begin a warming trend that continues into next week as highs get back to near normal. Some deterministic models indicate the potential for more disturbed weather next week but the ensembles remain dry.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions will generally remain prevalent across all area terminals through the period. The exception will be near isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA that may develop this afternoon across portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos this afternoon into early this evening. We maintained PROB30 mention for TSRA at MAF and FST. Winds generally remain light from the northeast to east for the most part through the period (except perhaps briefly from the southeast at times this evening/tonight).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 66 83 65 / 30 20 60 50 Carlsbad 91 67 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 84 67 84 66 / 80 40 70 70 Fort Stockton 84 64 82 64 / 60 20 70 30 Guadalupe Pass 81 63 80 62 / 20 0 10 10 Hobbs 89 64 85 63 / 10 10 30 10 Marfa 78 55 79 55 / 80 10 60 20 Midland Intl Airport 87 66 82 65 / 30 10 60 50 Odessa 87 66 83 65 / 30 10 60 50 Wink 88 66 85 65 / 30 10 50 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell- Upton-Ward.

NM...None.