textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Fire weather concerns continue over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas the rest of today and Monday as an upper- level system leads to strong winds and persistent dry conditions.

- Breezy conditions expected though at least Monday, with stronger winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.

- Rain chances begin to increase and temperatures trend downward during the latter half of the week as another storm system approaches.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Southwesterly flow holds across the region for this afternoon and into this evening as a jet associated with a disturbance over the SW US approaches the region. Strong to damaging winds may be seen across portions of SE NM, particularly in the higher elevations. For this, have continued the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories inherited from the previous package. Blowing dust will also need to be monitored for and may cause significant reductions in visibility near areas with little vegetation. Wind gusts across the adjacent plains will decrease after sunset this evening, but expect strong wind gusts to continue in the mountains. Continued southwesterly winds keep it warm and dry overnight with lows settling in the 60s for many with 50s across the higher elevations.

Dry and windy conditions continue tomorrow as well with highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s for many and low 100s across portions of the low desert of Big Bend. Winds become much lighter heading into Monday evening. Despite the decreased winds and persistent dry air, cloud cover keeps lows well above normal in the 60s for many. Precipitation is not expected during the short term.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Winds decrease on Tuesday as the upper-level trough continues to push off to the northeast. Slightly higher heights and continued westerly downslope flow allows high temperatures to warm a few degrees from Monday's across much of the area. However, model guidance shows surface high pressure developing over the Central Great Plains and pushing another cold front into our region by midweek. This yields temperatures in the 80s across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and locations out west on Wednesday. Winds shift to the east by Wednesday evening as the aforementioned surface high pressure moves east. As a result, rain chances (10-30%) return to mainly eastern portions of the area during this timeframe due to moist advection and upslope flow.

By Thursday and Friday, rain chances increase and expand areawide as another upper-level trough approaches the region. However, it should be noted that the NBM tends to overestimate precipitation coverage several days out due to a wet bias. Thus, precipitation coverage will likely be less than what the current forecast shows. With that said, there remains great uncertainty in rainfall coverage and amounts. These details will depend on the track of this upper-level feature and the quality of moisture associated with it. By Friday evening, rain chances decrease as the upper-level trough begins departing to the northeast. Lower heights associated with the trough and increased cloud cover yield cooler temperatures late next week into the weekend. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR CIGs, MVFR or lower VIS in regions of BLDU. West winds 15 to 20 knots decrease below 15 knots 09Z-12Z before increasing above 15 to 20 knots and gusting to and above 25 knots at terminals 14Z-17Z into 22Z-01Z. Then, winds decrease below 15 knots and shift to east/southeast by end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged. Critical (locally extreme, particularly across southeast New Mexico) fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, the higher terrain in west Texas and surrounding areas the rest of this afternoon and Monday. Strong southwesterly winds, persistent dry conditions, and higher ERCs (70th-89th percentile) have prompted us to continue the Red Flag Warning for these areas valid through this evening. Although winds look to be weaker Monday compared to today, other parameters shall be relatively similar. As such, another Red Flag Warning may be warranted for Monday as well. However, to avoid confusion (and to get another look at the data), have opted to keep the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now and pass that decision on to the next forecast shift. Fire weather conditions should improve by Tuesday as winds are forecast to trend downward and MinRHs upward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 92 65 95 59 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 87 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 98 69 99 71 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Stockton 94 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 58 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 86 54 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 90 65 93 62 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 89 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 91 60 94 61 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning through this evening for Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.