textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Strong westerly downsloping winds, low RH, and continued above average temperatures Friday keep fire weather risk and patchy blowing dust in the forecast for western higher terrain and adjacent plains.

- Much cooler weather but continued strong winds over western higher terrain for Saturday following 25% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms over southeastern parts of the area Friday night.

- Lighter winds and even cooler temperatures for Sunday, but with another 25% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms later in the day into the overnight, mainly along and northeast of the Davis Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

WV imagery shows an upper trough off the coast of Baja del Norte this afternoon, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, southwesterly winds over the higher terrain are meeting up with return flow in the east to sharpen up a dryline running from the Presidio Valley to the northern Permian Basin, and will be the focus of isolated convection later this afternoon, which could continue past the evening hours. The latest HRRR initiates activity 20-21Z along/east of the dryline. The 12Z KMAF raob came in w/mucapes in excess of 2500 J/kg, and dcapes of 1400 J/kg. Mid-lvl lapse rates of 7.9 C/km and 0-6km shear approaching 40 kts suggest some of the storms this afternoon could be marginally severe, as hi-res mid- level lapse rates decrease a bit over the next 12 hours.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop over the lower Trans Pecos/eastern Permian Basin, keeping winds elevated, the dryline backed up against the higher terrain, and overnight minimums ~ 10-15 F above climatology.

Friday, the upper trough makes landfall on Baja, with southwest flow aloft increasing over the region. The latest NAM develops a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes, which will exacerbate critical fire weather conditions already expected there. See fire weather discussion below for more details. As such, we've issued a High Wind Warning, which will likely be accompanied by blowing dust. Downslope warming, as well as compressional warming ahead of a cold front, will add a couple of degrees to today's highs, for afternoon temperatures almost 10 F above normal.

Increased westerlies over the higher terrain will mix the dryline east, and hi-res models initiate convection along this feature at around 00Z Saturday over the lower Trans Pecos/southeast Permian Basin. 50-60 kts of deep layer shear and 7-9 C/km lapse rates suggest another round of severe activity, potentially lasting past 06Z, when a cold front enters the area. This front may be strong enough for a few hours of gap winds late Friday night, as it shaves around 10 F off tonight's lows. This will take lows Saturday morning down to a couple of degrees above normal on average.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

More seasonable weather for mid April characterized by highs largely below the mid 70s F and lows in the 30s to 40s F is forecast this weekend continuing into early next week. A 25% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms moving southeast over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County taper off late Friday night into Saturday morning. Westerly winds then shift to northerly and increase behind a strong cold front developing south/southeast through the area. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph or more for the Guadalupes are indicated in numerical guidance and grids, suggesting high wind products may be needed for this region Saturday, while lower wind speeds and gusts largely below 30 mph are expected for lower elevations and to the east of western higher terrain. Will leave decision on whether to issue high wind products for the Guadalupes to the midnight shift as wind criteria are still marginal and forecast mean and maximum winds for Saturday could still change. Cool temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s F Saturday will be followed by even cooler temperatures in the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations Sunday. Northeasterly winds veer back to southeasterly despite the cooler temperatures in response to an approaching mid to upper storm disturbance with accompanying lift and moisture developing in from Baja CA. Moisture increases as dew point temperatures in the lower 20s to lower 30s in the morning increase back into the 30s and 40s F F by evening. This will be followed by another 25% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms rippling southwest to northeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night, with highest coverage expected over the Davis Mountains into Guadalupes and points northeast. At this time, no flooding risk is indicated, but we will continue to monitor the renewed shower/storm chances Sunday. A gradual warming trend next week picks up as the dryline redevelops and highs warm back into the 70s and 80s F with lows in the 40s and 50s F. As mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion strengthen from SW TX into the northern Rockies, temperatures warm back to above average by the middle to end of next week, with highs above 80F and lows above 50F.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Southerly flow this afternoon will veer overnight and Friday morning, becoming west and increasing/gusty by the end of the forecast period. Forecast sounding suggest a cu field ~ 12 kft AGL west of the dryline this afternoon, and 7 kft AGL east. Convection will be possible KMAF/KFST, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Min RH below critical 15% from the Sacramento Foothills and Presidio Valley to just west of the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, in addition to high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average, weeks of no substantial rainfall, fuel ERCs above the 50th percentile, and 20-ft winds up to 20 miles per hour Southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, and Sacramento Foothills will result in RFTIs up to 4-5 from afternoon through early evening today. As a result, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this evening. Following poor overnight recovery west of the Big Bend into Marfa Plateau and Lea County, increasing 20-ft winds sustained above 20 knots and gusting up to 50 knots or more over the Guadalupes will prompt critical fire weather conditions more widespread than today. Along with high temperatures remaining up to 10 degrees above average, westerly downsloping winds will increase RFTIs into the 5-7 range from early afternoon through early evening for much of Southeast New Mexico into Culberson County and the northwest Permian Basin. A Fire Weather Watch therefore remains in effect Friday for these regions. Cooler temperatures but min RH remaining near or below critical northwest of the Big Bend into southeast Permian Basin and 20-ft winds from the northeast 20 miles per hour Saturday keep elevated fire weather conditions present for western higher terrain. Lighter 20-ft winds and even cooler temperatures with increased shower/storm chances Sunday reduces fire weather concerns, with low fire weather conditions persisting into early next week as min RH increases back above 15% and 20-ft winds largely remain below 20 miles per hour, despite a warming trend in high and low temperatures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 65 91 51 69 / 10 10 30 10 Carlsbad 55 87 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 66 93 60 73 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 63 92 54 70 / 10 10 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 77 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 86 44 70 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 50 83 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 90 52 69 / 10 10 20 10 Odessa 64 90 52 69 / 10 10 20 10 Wink 60 90 51 71 / 10 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Martin.

NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.