textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs near 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Upper-level ridging that has plagued the region with a week of triple digit heat has begun to break down and shift east. This will lead to "cooler" temperatures and better rain chances this week. The primary concern for the short term remains the hot temperatures. 500mb heights near 592 dam continue to suppress significant vertical motion outside of the higher terrain. Deeply mixed profiles will lead to high temperatures above 100 degrees once again for most locations, with 110 expected along the Rio Grande. While capping will be stout, localized convergence along a theta-e axis from Seminole to Monahans and upslope flow in the Davis mountains will trigger isolated thunderstorms again this afternoon. Storms will be high-based again with the main threat being damaging microburst winds.

The low-level jet will crank up once again this evening leading to a warm, breezy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

A similar setup is expected Monday, but with slightly better moisture profiles. This should help keep most locations below 100 degrees with increased chances for thunderstorms, especially for the mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms along with areas of flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

As the upper ridge builds further over the eastern U.S., deep southerly flow will increase over our region Tuesday/Wednesday. This will lead to another day of scattered showers and storms, focused again across the higher terrain. High temperatures will decrease with the extra cloud cover and moisture, falling back to normal (mid 90s).

It still appears the upper ridge will expand back over the region late in the week bringing a return to hot temperatures and drier conditions. The ridge looks fairly weak so mid level heights around 590 dam are unlikely to suppress all convection. This means we could still see some storms around for the 4th of July so stay tuned to the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions outside of MVFR or lower conditions in storms. Held off on mentioning storms in TAFs due to low (10% to 30%) chance and coverage of storms and uncertainty in location of storms. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts for terminals on the Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos from beginning of period through 01Z-06Z, with south/southeast winds 15 to 20 knots for terminals to the east and southeast. Winds for terminals on the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos decrease below 10 to 15 knots 06Z-10Z Sunday and shift to southwest through the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 102 76 100 74 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 103 74 100 72 / 10 10 10 0 Dryden 101 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Stockton 102 74 98 72 / 20 10 60 50 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 90 68 / 10 20 10 10 Hobbs 102 72 97 69 / 10 20 30 20 Marfa 93 64 90 60 / 40 30 60 50 Midland Intl Airport 100 75 97 74 / 0 10 10 30 Odessa 100 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 30 Wink 104 75 100 73 / 10 20 40 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.