textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through next weekend, including warm overnight minimums. Heat Advisories may be needed later next week. - Rain chances will be minimal each day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Happy Independence Day! WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge now centered directly over Southeast New Mexico, Resulting in a warm, mostly-dry 4th of July for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Latest CAMs and temperature trends suggest highs will top out 5-7 F above normal, a few degrees above yesterday. Convective chances, like yesterday, will be paltry and confined to orographic influences, if that. Subsidence may render less activity than yesterday.

Tonight, as has been and will be the case through the extended, overnight minimums will remain unseasonably warm as a LLJ redevelops, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed. In addition, a veil of high cloud is on tap to increase over the region, further retarding radiational cooling.

Sunday, the ridge is forecast to continue developing west, and weakening slightly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will result in temperatures similar to today, give or take a degree or two in places. An outflow from an MCS in the Central Plains tonight may move into the Southern Plains Sunday, bringing minimal chances of convection to our northern zones.

Sunday night, overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so cooler due to a weaker LLJ and slightly less cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The extended forecast remains fairly pedestrian, as the upper ridge will dictate conditions to one extent or another. Monday, the LREF and global models center the ridge over the junction of Arizona.New Mexico/Mexico. From there through the end of the work week, the ridge is forecast to build west, ending up just offshore SoCal/Baja, before rounding out the extended Saturday afternoon over the Four Corners. This will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with Thursday looking to be the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau some 5-10 F above climatology. Heat products may be warranted later next week, especially when warm overnight minimums are taken into consideration.

Unfortunately, under this synoptic scenario, and in the extended, there exists low (but non-zero) chances of convection each day, but triggers are subtle and not resolved by coarser, long-trange models. For most locations, unfortunately, this means warm/dry conditions for the next 7-10 days, at least.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, in light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases ~ 7-9 kft AGL. A few cu will be possible invof KMAF near the end of the forecast period, w/bases ~ 5 kft AGL. A couple of high clouds are possible, and convective chances are near non-existent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 77 101 74 98 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 74 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 77 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 92 69 90 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 72 98 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 64 93 63 91 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 77 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 77 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 76 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.