textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions today across southeast New Mexico and Culberson County. Near critical to critical fire weather concerns persist over similar locations through at least the weekend.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through at least early next week.

- Fire weather concerns increase as an upper level system leads to breezy to strong winds late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Quasi-zonal (west to east) flow holds across the region for tonight and into tomorrow. This will keep temperatures above normal for tonight with many in the upper 50s to low 60s. Westerly to southwesterly winds closer to the surface will keep highs well above normal during the day on Saturday with many areas in the mid to upper 80s with low 90s across the eastern half of the CWA. Portions of Big Bend look to top out around 100F. Plenty of dry air and some breezy conditions across southeast New Mexico will make for near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Read more details below in the Fire Weather section. Saturday night sees temperatures remain well above normal with many settling into the 60s. Precipitation is not expected during the short term period.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Windy conditions return on Sunday thanks to an upper-level jet situated over portions of southeast New Mexico. At the surface, leeside troughing develops over the region bringing very warm, breezy, and dry conditions. As a result, near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. A Fire Weather Watch will likely be needed for these locations due to the dryline sent east of the region allowing for enhanced mixing, along with little cloud coverage compared with the previous days. High winds are likely to occur across the Guadalupe Mountains including Carlsbad Caverns National Park beginning late Sunday morning through at least early Monday morning as the upper-level jet streak will be positioned over these locations. Guidance has a mountain wave signature at the 500, 700, and 850mb levels indicating the threat of high winds. Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued for these areas and the watch likely needs to be extended further into Monday due to the jet streak sticking around through the afternoon hours per agreement among long-range guidance. Blowing dust will be another hazard to consider especially for areas across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas near open fields and construction sites. High temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s are in store regionwide Sunday afternoon due to a low-level thermal ridge developing.

More near-critical to critical fire weather conditions exist Monday afternoon due to strong westerly winds influenced by surface troughing and the upper-level jet streak. Highs look to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. By Tuesday, the upper-level jet lifts northeast of the forecast area providing less windy conditions while decreasing fire weather conditions. Westerly flow aloft with surface troughing keeps temperatures similar as Monday, perhaps a touch warmer. By Wednesday and Thursday, cooler temperatures are expected as a cold front arrives in the region. This will also send the dryline further westward, increasing the chances for rain mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. Some long- range models have an upper-level storm system approaching the region by Thursday night bringing moisture and another shot for rain, however, cluster analysis has split solutions on the placement and magnitude of the system. More details of this should be refined as we get closer to time. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions remain at all terminals. Gusts around 20-25kts decay after sunset. Winds remain westerly to southwesterly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are in store today and tomorrow across southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains due to MinRHs below 15% with 20ft winds near and slightly above 20 mph. Fire weather conditions look to be mitigated tomorrow due to high cloud cover limiting grassland fire spread/growth if any fires do ignite. Critical fire weather conditions are expected over similar locations on Sunday and Monday because of stronger winds, persistent dry conditions, and little cloud cover. ERCs look to jump above the 75th percentile across portions of southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains, far northwest Permian Basin, and far west Texas by Sunday. With no rain in sight, ERCs will continue to increase further heading into Monday. A Fire Weather Watch will likely be needed for these areas both Sunday and Monday. Fire weather conditions should improve by Tuesday as winds are forecast to not be as strong.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 62 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 79 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 55 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 84 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 92 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 61 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 57 92 62 95 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.