textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding in low-lying, sloped terrain, and poor drainage regions remain possible with slow moving and/or training showers/storms will remain possible through the end of the week.

- Warmer temperatures and drier weather conditions return late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VIS/IR satellite early this afternoon shows another mesoscale convective system over the area, producing moderate to heavy rain from northern Presidio County into Culberson County and farther east into the Marfa Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos. Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor have picked up 0.5" to 1.5", with 0.50" to 0.75" over parts of the Marfa Plateau. The cloud and precipitation shield accompanying this system has begun to decay late this morning but may restrengthen. The main risk with storms given weak southwesterly steering flow aloft and cloud tops remaining above -50C to -60C remains heavy rain. However, SPC has outlooked the region southwest of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau in a MRGL risk, with locally damaging winds and large hail in additional convective cores that develop (40% to 55% chance) being the main severe risks, aided by 7-8 C/km low to mid-level lapse rates. A 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms will continue to spread north/northeast from the western higher terrain into SE NM plains this evening, with breaks in clouds and daytime heating leading to possible restrengthening of storms. Due to the potential for additional flash flooding on top of what has all ready fallen, another Flood Watch has been issued for this afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, light south/southeast winds and mostly cloudy skies keeps highs in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations. Additional rainfall amounts of at least a few tenths of an inch are likely through tonight, with lows once again falling into the 60s F, 50s F. Tomorrow, similar high temperatures as another 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms are forecast, but with high-res CAMs and ensembles indicating heaviest storms over the Rio Grande basin into southeast Permian Basin rather than Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher tomorrow will again pose another risk of flash flooding in regions of heavier and/or training storms, while PWATs remain at and above 1.00", allowing for any storms to be efficient rain producers. Tomorrow night, 25% to 35% rain chances linger over Terrell County into the southeast Permian Basin as lows again fall to similar levels as tonight. There will be a day or two more of showers/storms before drier weather finally returns. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA providing lift and deep moisture convergence persists within weakly quasi-zonal flow through this weekend. PWATs also remain at least 2 standard deviations above normal from 1.00" to 1.25" through the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend, maintaining low to medium (35% to 55%) shower/storm chances over the area, especially the southern and eastern parts of west Texas into Marfa Plateau and Lea County Lea County. CAPE will not be overly high (1000-500 J/kg) while winds through the lower to mid troposphere will remain weak (<25 knots), preventing higher instability and rotation/persistence of stronger updrafts, respectively, keeping the severe risk at a minimum. Main impact of showers/storms will remain heavy rain with potential for flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions as well as lightning. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch to up to 0.5" or more in heavier and/or training storms is expected, although amounts are not likely to be as high as earlier this week. Until clouds and rain chances depart, highs will remain in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations for much of the area, with lows remaining in the 50s and 60s F.

After the disturbance aloft weakens and mid to upper ridging takes over again, humid air characterized by dewpoint temperatures in the 50s and 60s F will remain over central and eastern parts of the area, while the western higher terrain into westernmost Eddy County experiences slightly less humid conditions with dew point temperatures decreasing back into the 40s F from this week's 50s and 60s F. Therefore, despite ridging and large scale subsidence decreasing rain chances back to near zero, highs near average in the lower to mid 90s F and lows above average in the mid 60s to mid 70s F are forecast in the more humid air, while within drier air farther west, highs rise back into the mid to upper 90s F and approach the century mark even as lows still fall into the 60s F.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent over local terminals through Thursday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may still develop later this evening and/or overnight over parts of southeast NM and areas west of the Pecos River. Ceilings and visibility will be lowered near convection that develops. We maintained a PROB30 mention of TSRA at both KCNM and HOB late tonight. Light E/SE winds will otherwise continue over most area terminals through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 67 87 67 84 / 10 20 30 50 Carlsbad 64 86 64 87 / 60 20 10 20 Dryden 69 88 68 85 / 10 10 40 50 Fort Stockton 66 88 66 86 / 20 40 10 60 Guadalupe Pass 61 79 63 77 / 60 20 20 50 Hobbs 61 83 62 83 / 40 30 20 20 Marfa 55 82 54 79 / 60 60 50 80 Midland Intl Airport 66 85 66 83 / 20 20 30 40 Odessa 66 85 66 83 / 20 20 30 40 Wink 65 86 66 85 / 40 20 30 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.