textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Cold front moves through the region today bringing higher rain chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- A few storms may be strong to severe today across southeast New Mexico, Upper Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. The main hazards expected are large hail and damaging winds.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by the middle of next week with many locations experiencing their first 100 degree day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current radar shows weak showers continue in southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. New storms are now developing in the Davis Mountains as we have seen the past week, as well as the western Permian Basin along a weak cold front. There was some isolated areas of moderate to heavy rain earlier this afternoon but now that activity has diminished in intensity. Expecting rainfall amounts to increase again this afternoon especially along and south of the front where heating and surface based destabilization will be greatest. Observations show the front is currently near or just north of the I-20 corridor and slowly moving south. Courser global models show a line of convection developing along the front this afternoon while the higher resolution models are indicating much more isolated rainfall along the front. The global models may be suffering from poor resolution spreading rain out over a broad area the the hi-res models may be handling the situation better. The NBM ensemble guidance agrees and has lowered PoPs in the Permian Basin with better chances farther south near the Trans Pecos and Big Bend where orographics enhances lift. The decreasing wide spread rain threat also diminishes the flood and severe weather threat and do not anticipate any watches at this time. However there is still the potential for isolated flooding and brief severe weather so remain alert.

High pressure behind the cold front slowly builds south and settles over the area overnight. Temperatures tonight drop into the 60s and only get into the 80s tomorrow afternoon which is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year, continuing a very pleasant start to summer. Rain chances tomorrow will be exclusively in the Big Bend before ending tomorrow night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Upper level high pressure builds east Tuesday into Thursday. The NBM responds accordingly, increasing highs on Tuesday to the 90s which is normal for this time of year while eliminating rain chances. There is some uncertainty though in the temperature forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM soars highs well over 100 degrees on Wednesday despite relatively low 500mb heights of 587dam. The reason is increasing northwesterly flow pushing a dryline east into the basin advecting hot and dry air behind it. There is no doubt that temps will be higher Wednesday, and breaking 100 degrees is reasonable, but highs may be a few degrees below NBM guidance.

Thursday will be very hot again for much of the area, but a Great Lakes trough will send another cold front south reaching southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler so how far south the front reaches before peak heating will be critical for the MaxT forecast. For now will drop highs north of I-20 and leave them alone for Thursday. Friday will be much cooler than Wed/Thu and Saturday is even warmer as surface high pressure moves east and southerly flow returns.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing over portions of SE NM as a cold front is creeping its way into our region. Additional shower/storm activity is expected to develop south and eastward as the front advances through the day. Winds should also become northeasterly with the front, sustained between 10-15kts. Given the scattered nature of storm development, PROB30s have been included at most sites. Periods of MVFR CIGs and VIS shall accompany showers/storms. Expect amendments as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 65 83 66 94 / 30 30 0 0 Carlsbad 65 85 66 96 / 40 20 0 0 Dryden 71 87 70 92 / 70 50 0 10 Fort Stockton 67 85 67 95 / 70 40 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 80 64 88 / 40 30 0 10 Hobbs 61 82 63 93 / 30 20 10 0 Marfa 59 83 57 89 / 40 50 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 65 83 67 93 / 40 30 0 0 Odessa 65 83 67 93 / 40 30 0 0 Wink 65 85 67 96 / 50 30 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.