textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 445 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected through early this evening across the southeast New Mexico Plains and portions of the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos region where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

- Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures begin to trend cooler during the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A weak trough rounding an upper level ridge continues to bring breezy conditions to the region today. These winds will decrease by late tonight and generally lighter winds can be expected for the rest of the short term forecast. The same dry and warm airmass hangs around and keeps lows well above normal for late February in the 50s for most with a few spots dipping into the 40s. Normal lows this time of year are usually in the upper 30s to low 40s. The passage of a dry front today brings down temperatures for tomorrow afternoon somewhat with many still ending up in the 70s and 80s. With lighter winds and clearer skies, Thursday night sees lows dip several degrees cooler into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation chances continue to remain near zero.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The shortwave trough that pushed a weak cold front in Thursday departs to our east Friday, leaving an upper ridge to be our primary weather maker. At the surface, a lee trough will extend down near our region through much of the weekend. Temperatures Friday warm only a few degrees over Thursday's, largely reaching the 80s. Over the weekend, the upper ridge axis slides east from the coast of Baja, toward northern Mexico. Expect highs Saturday in the 80s, with 90s in portions of the Trans Pecos, the Big Bend, and along the Rio Grande. 90 degree highs expand in coverage to include more portions of the Trans Pecos Sunday. Some areas along the Rio Grande are still forecast to top out near 100 degrees.

Heading into a new work week, the upper level pattern begins to shift. Sunday into Monday, flow aloft becomes zonal as a trough rolls over the Plains and causes the ridge to flatten a touch. This looks to potentially help send a cold front down from the Temperatures Panhandle, dropping Monday's highs mainly into the 70s. However, Monday's temperatures will vary significantly depending on how far this front makes it. Some models have colder air sinking down into the region, then stalling somewhere within it. Other solutions show this front stalling somewhere just north of our region, resulting in warmer temperatures. For now, NBM is going with the middle ground. Meanwhile, another trough deepens over the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday. This feature is progged to approach our area Tuesday into Wednesday, providing an additional source of lift. Depending on moisture availability and surface frontal positioning during this time frame, we could potentially see some rainfall with this particular system. Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday look roughly similar to Monday, generally reaching the 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. Northwesterly surface winds will decrease after sundown, and veer slightly Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Westerly to northwesterly 20 foot winds will remain breezy across the southeast New Mexico plains, much of the western Permian Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos region through this evening. Record- breaking temperatures and minimum RH values near 10-13 percent have led to RFTI values up to 4-7 over these locations. Thus a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through early this evening. Warm and dry conditions persist through the weekend, though lighter winds will help keep fire weather concerns at bay.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 89 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 58 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 75 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 45 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 57 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 55 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea.