textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through next week. Temperatures will gradually increase through Sunday, then decrease slightly through Wednesday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in store this afternoon across the Davis Mountains, Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Marfa Plateau.

- Dry conditions are expected this weekend, before chances (10-40%) begin to increase by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Satellite imagery shows an upper-level low centered near the Davis Mountains. This low has induced some shower and thunderstorm development early this afternoon across the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Additional isolated shower/storm development is expected throughout the afternoon across similar areas including the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. Inverted troughing aloft coupled with the upper low will bring slightly cooler temperatures due to decreased thicknesses. Highs are expected to range from the low to upper 80s for most locations. Tonight, lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s areawide. The aforementioned upper low begins to shift east of the region by tomorrow afternoon. As a result, very low chances (< 10%) for rain are in store. High temperatures will remain similar as today.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A warm and dry weekend is expected across the region. This is thanks to subtle upper-level ridging building in from the west. Temperatures are forecast to rebound back into the mid 80s to low 90s for a lot of locations which will continue through early next week. For context, these temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Luckily, the well above normal temperatures and dry weather look to come to an end for some by early next week. Long-range guidance has an upper-level system approaching from the West Coast, while Tropical Storm Simon moves near the Gulf of California. A rich plume of moisture from Simon combined with surface troughing across the Rockies will supply low (10-30%) rain chances late Monday into Tuesday for far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are beginning to highlight the remnants of Tropical Storm Simon being absorbed into the upper-level system by Monday evening. Strong southwesterly flow aloft supplies further low rain chances (20-40%) across much of the region Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Ensembles depict PWATs reaching above the 90th to near maximum climatological percentile indicating the threat of heavy rainfall. Deep southwesterly flow aloft also creates a favorable pattern for a few severe storms to develop. Strong winds across the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains will be another potential hazard to monitor. There still remains uncertainty in the timing, positioning, and progression of the upper-level storm system during this timeframe. Therefore, details on potential weather impacts for the forecast area should be ironed out as we get closer in time. Stay tuned! Confidence is highest that temperatures will begin cooling down by mid to late next week.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions throughout TAF period, with light winds below 10 mph and primarily from the southeast at terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 66 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 75 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 58 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 56 78 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 61 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 62 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.