textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Hazardous heat continues today across the region, with highs largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated storm chances (10-20%) for portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and far southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening. A storm or two may be severe with damaging winds and hail up to size of quarters being the main threats.

- Triple digit heat continues through the extended, with low (< 30%) chance of showers/storms across the higher terrain and northern Permian Basin.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows a complex of thunderstorms moving southeast across portions of Oklahoma. An outflow boundary produced by these storms will make its way into parts of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin by this morning. This feature may provide slightly cooler temperatures for the northernmost portions of the area, though highs are still expected to span in the triple digits for these locations. In the upper- levels, a ridge of high pressure persists over the region, promoting hazardous heat for this afternoon and early evening. There exists a low (10-20%) chance for isolated thunderstorm development across the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon and early evening thanks to the aforementioned boundary setting up in these locations. High resolution guidance also depicts a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) developing somewhere near the Pecos River to portions of far southeast New Mexico. Location of storm development will highly depend on where the outflow boundary, dryline, and MCV sets up this afternoon. Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles, strong surface instability ( > 3000 J/kg), very high DCAPE values ( > 1500 J/kg), modest mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep- layer shear. These parameters indicate the potential threat of dry microbursts producing damaging winds and hail up to the size of quarters. The greatest areas of concern for strong to severe storms will be over portions of the Permian Basin.

Tonight, a low-level jet develops over the region providing breezy winds and low temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s regionwide. The ridge of upper high pressure continues to stay over southeast New Mexico and west Texas tomorrow. As a result, most locations once again are going to experience triple digit heat. Isolated storms look to form mainly over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains during the afternoon due to shortwave disturbances from the flow aloft. These storms are not expected to be severe. The same hot and mainly dry weather pattern continues heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Intense heat continues throughout the Long Term period as large- scale sinking motion associated with upper-level ridging persists. Triple digit heat (except 90s in the mountains) is expected for most each day, with highs between 100 and 105 being commonplace. Temperatures are likely to exceed 105 degrees each day along the Rio Grande and Upper Trans Pecos, with highs topping out between 110 and 115 degrees in low-lying areas of the Big Bend. There is some model disagreement on how much the aforementioned ridge builds into our area or becomes displaced farther to the west during the latter half of the week. Regardless, triple digit heat is forecast to continue for most. Be sure to exercise heat safety precautions this week as there is a serious threat of heat illness if you are outside for an extended period of time. It is also encouraged to check on those who are more vulnerable to the heat such as the elderly or small children.

Aside form the heat, breezy conditions are expected each afternoon, mainly across the eastern half of our CWA due to daytime mixing. In addition to the mixing, surface low pressure over the panhandle induces a relatively tight pressure gradient. Breezy conditions continue each evening and accelerate due to the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Weak disturbances in the flow combined with convective boundaries and the low-level jet provide low (up to 20%) chances of showers/storms, mainly across the higher terrain and/or far northern zones each afternoon and evening. Though the better chances (up to 30%) currently look to be late this week and into the weekend.

Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A deck of low clouds remain east of MAF and FST sites this morning. Very low confidence in this deck of clouds reaching these terminals, therefore, opted to not include in TAFs. An outflow boundary is expected to shift winds from the north and northwest at HOB, PEQ, and CNM sites this morning. Occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts may occur especially at PEQ and CNM sites. Opted to include TS PROB30 near MAF late this afternoon into the early evening due to increasing confidence from high resolution models and current analysis.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 107 75 103 74 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 106 72 107 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 108 73 104 72 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 98 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 106 70 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 101 64 98 64 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 107 74 102 73 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 107 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 109 74 105 73 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry- Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern Lea.