textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Guadalupe Mountains, and Culberson County Plains. Avoid outdoor burning of any kind today!

- A sharp warming trend begins today and continues through the weekend. Increasing likelihood of multiple high temperature records tied or broken this week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

An upper level ridge begins to impinge upon the southwest US tonight and into Wednesday. Overnight lows move several degrees up from this morning with much of the region in the 40s. The trend continues during the day on Wednesday where highs in the 80s are expected nearly areawide. Mainly light winds and mostly clear skies can be expected along with near zero chances for precipitation. Heading into Wednesday night, the aforementioned upper ridge continues to push to the east and centers over Arizona and Southern California. Nighttime lows respond by only settling into the 40s to low 50s for most.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The heat comes on by Thursday as upper 80s to low 90s will be seen across the region thanks to the ridge mentioned in the short term discussion. From Thursday through Sunday, high temperature records at KMAF will be in jeopardy of at least being tied each afternoon. Portions of the low desert in Big Bend may see a couple days where temperatures hit the century mark. Essentially no reprieve from this unseasonable heat is expected as rain chances for the entire extended forecast are near zero. A weak front looks to push through by Monday next week, but even this only knocks temperatures down into the mid to upper 80s for most. Overnight lows remain above normal in the 50s and 60s for much of the extended.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusts come down quickly tonight for most sites, although elevated southerly winds (generally in the 12-17 knot range, with some gusts around 20-25 knots) persist at MAF and FST before diminishing early tomorrow morning. Light easterly to southeasterly winds prevail by tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Surface observations continue to show areas with single digit dewpoints leading to critical RHs with occasional gusts from the south and southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions continue through this afternoon and subside this evening as winds decrease. Well above normal temperatures and very low minRH will persist late this week into the weekend, but lighter 20-foot winds will generally mitigate fire weather concerns. Elevated fire conditions may return Sunday due to increased winds from surface troughing and a poor overnight recovery Saturday night. With near zero chance for precipitation over the next several days for the entire area, expect fuels to continue to dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 41 83 48 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 47 85 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 41 81 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 49 84 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 78 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 40 83 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 81 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 42 83 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 43 82 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 41 83 46 91 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.