textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Friday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend, before warmer and drier weather builds back in by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper low situated over west Texas. This low has provided a lot of rainfall over the past couple of days especially for areas across the Lower Trans Pecos extending into the Big Bend. Rain coverage will be limited today due to upper- level dry air on the backside of the system. Isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder are in store today mainly across portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. The flash flooding threat persists today and tomorrow due to the combination of heavy rainfall and recently saturated soils/surfaces. The aforementioned upper low shifts west overnight tonight keeping isolated showers across the region. Tomorrow, coverage increases across the forecast area as the low stalls west of the Pecos River. As a result, the greatest rain chances are forecast for similar areas (Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Permian Basin). Other than the heavy rainfall, high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s to 80s areawide both days.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered to widespread showers/storms with a risk of flash flooding persist from the end of the week through this weekend, before rain chances slowly decrease and temperatures warm back closer to seasonal for this time of year. 3hr PoPs of 45% to 60% persist across the southern and eastern part of the forecast area on Friday, as deterministic models are consistent in showing a mid to upper low currently over SW TX continuing to develop west over W TX. The low will provide forcing for ascent and moisture convergence to sustain showers/storms, in combination with daytime heating and continued humid south/southeast winds across the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area. While temperatures stay in the 70s and 80s F with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s F in the lower troposphere, drier mid-levels allow for PWATs to fall into the 1.25" to 1.50" range, lower than the 1.40" to 1.70" range seen earlier this week. This may slightly reduce rain totals from less efficient warm rain processes, but ensembles still indicate a 40% to 60% chance of rain totals 0.50" to 1.00" from Friday morning through Saturday morning for Terrell County, Rio Grande and Marfa Plateau, and up to the Permian Basin. Higher end rain totals for Friday through Saturday alone are still in the 2" to 3" range and up to 4" to 6" for Terrell County into the central and eastern Permian Basin as well. This will continue the threat of flash flooding, especially near low lying regions such as creeks, streams, and arroyos. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern part of the forecast area and may have to be extended north into the Permian Basin through Friday. Hikers and campers should be prepared to move to higher ground and away from camp sites if flash flood warnings are issued, and motorists should continue to exercise caution when driving. Remember, when you see flooded roadways, turn around, don't drown!

Rain chances carry over into Saturday and Sunday, with highest rain chances of 45% to 65% over the Presidio Valley and western higher terrain of the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau. NBM and ensembles indicate a 40% to 60% chance of rainfall up to 0.50" over the Marfa Plateau, and higher end totals of 2" to 3" still possible. Highs this weekend rise into the 80s to lower 90s F with exception of 70s F higher elevations, as clouds begin to decrease from east to west in association with the upper low slowly developing west into the northern MX plateau. The warming trend continues early next week, but 40% to 60% rain chances southwest of the Pecos River persist Monday with a low to medium chance of an additional few inches of rainfall over soils and slopes that are near saturation from earlier rains. Therefore, flash flooding risk will continue through at least early next week, and anyone participating in outdoor activities will want to take proper precautions and avoid low water crossings. Rain chances finally start to decrease after Monday and the familiar cycle of 10% to 40% afternoon shower/storm chances over western higher terrain re- establishes. As mid to upper ridging builds south from the Rockies into the Southern Great Plains and large scale sinking motion reasserts itself, highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s F return, while lows settle back into the mid 60s to mid 70s F following the upper 50s to lower 60s F lows seen last week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Ceilings have lifted above 3000 ft at all sites and will remain in VFR through the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Scattered showers with a few storms are expected to develop across west Texas this afternoon. Highest confidence in -TSRA will be over FST and MAF sites. Brief -SHRA may impact sites during the afternoon and early tomorrow morning. Ceilings lower to MVFR and IFR conditions late this evening and overnight tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 67 80 66 81 / 50 80 60 70 Carlsbad 68 88 66 89 / 10 20 20 40 Dryden 68 86 68 87 / 50 60 50 70 Fort Stockton 66 84 66 85 / 20 50 40 70 Guadalupe Pass 63 81 63 82 / 10 20 20 60 Hobbs 65 83 64 84 / 10 30 20 60 Marfa 57 80 56 80 / 10 60 30 70 Midland Intl Airport 67 80 66 81 / 40 70 60 70 Odessa 67 80 66 82 / 30 60 50 70 Wink 67 84 66 86 / 20 40 30 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell- Upton-Ward.

NM...None.