textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Generally hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday with only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, mainly in and around the higher terrain and towards the Lower Trans-Pecos. - Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough slowly ejecting northeast, and centered over southwest Wyoming, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This feature is forecast to nudge up to the Canadian border by early Monday morning, leaving the synoptic pattern closer to home relatively static. Cloud cover is expected to diminish this afternoon NW-SE, and will assist downslope warming from southwesterly surface winds to add 3-4 F to yesterday's highs...which would be 4-5 F above climatology. These surface winds will mix the dryline east, leaving only a small window of opportunity for isolated convection over the lower Trans Pecos.

CAMs diminish this convection shortly after sundown. The LLJ doesn't look to be as strong as last night's, and will combine with clearing skies and lower dewpoints to yield overnight minimums that, while still above normal, will be at least ~ 2-4 F cooler than this morning's, which felt like Houston on a dry day.

Sunday, boundary layer moisture will encroach further into the CWA, the 50+ isodrosotherms all the way into Southeast New Mexico, and the dryline diffuse/nonexistent. Despite this, thicknesses will continue increasing, resulting in possibly the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau a good 6-8 F above normal, with even triple digits in a couple of choice locations in the Pecos River Valley. A shortwave moving up through Sonora/Chihuahua will open up a chance of convection from the Presidio Vally/Big Bend through the Davis Mountains.

This activity should taper off to the northeast shortly after sundown. Lows Sunday night should be similar to tonight's, if not a degree warmer due to increased cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Warm and relatively dry conditions persist Monday. Much like Sunday, temperatures top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations (some low 100s in typical warm spots). Low rain chances (10-40%) are confined mainly to the higher terrain west of the Pecos River. However, the pattern changes once again beginning Tuesday. Upper- level troughing develops out west and slowly moves towards west Texas and southeast New Mexico next week. As a result, ridging becomes displaced farther east and southwesterly flow aloft begins developing over the region. Meanwhile, moisture also increases again across the area (models indicate PWATs will be generally in the 1.0- 1.5 inch range). Because of this, rain chances begin to increase mainly out west Tuesday afternoon/evening, shifting over the rest of the area through the week. Some model disagreement still remains at this time (for instance, the ECMWF ensemble has tended to be more optimistic with rainfall totals than the GEFS, especially for eastern parts of the area). Nevertheless, the overall pattern supports increasing rain chances across the area next week. During this time, we will be keeping a close eye on the flash flooding potential, especially considering the very rich atmospheric moisture that will be in place. Increased cloud cover will help keep temperatures largely in the 80s, which is below normal for early June. This cloud cover will also help limit instability, which (combined with relatively weak deep-layer shear) will likewise help limit the severe weather potential.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will decouple after sundown, then back to southeast Sunday. Forecast soundings develop a high-based (~ 12 kft AGL) cu field invof KFST this afternoon. Sunday, a 6-7 kft AGL cu field is anticipated KMAF/KFST/KINK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 61 99 66 100 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 71 97 71 96 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 67 98 68 97 / 10 40 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 62 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 61 97 64 96 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 57 91 56 92 / 0 50 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 67 97 68 95 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 68 97 68 95 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 66 99 68 98 / 0 10 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.