textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 454 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Temperatures gradually warm above normal through the week.

- Temperatures peak in weak ridging early this weekend, before cooling by a few degrees (but remaining above average) with a mid to upper weather system late weekend into early next week.

- Light rain showers Sunday into early next week are forecast with breezy south/southwest winds at times.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows shortwave troughing across the Central and Northern plains, along with a ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS. Surface high pressure sliding down from the Rockies will shift winds north/northeasterly this afternoon (10-15 mph). As a result, expect a slightly cooler afternoon than yesterday, with temperatures spanning in the mid 50s and low 60s. By tonight, the aforementioned surface high pushes further into west Texas. Clear skies and light winds will create ideal conditions for radiational cooling, dropping lows in the mid 20s and low 30s across most locations.

A warming trend begins on Thursday. Surface winds veer south/southwesterly with upper-level ridging building in from the west. High temperatures are expected to range in the 60s for most areas, besides locations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains being in the low to upper 50s. Guidance has the upper-level ridge axis positioned over the region by late Thursday which looks to hold through the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Little change in the overall temperature, moisture, sky, and wind forecast through next week compared to previous runs. Entrenchment of an Arctic air mass will lessen as northwesterly mid to upper air pattern eases to weak northwest to southeast omega ridging from the Southern Great Plains into the Great Basin, flattening the troughing pattern that was limiting warming and expansion of the air column - and resuming large scale sinking motion present before last month's cold wave. This allows highs Friday to warm back to above average and into the 70s F much of Rio Grande basin into Terrell County, Stockton Plateau, and Permian Basin, with mid to upper 60s F elsewhere apart from upper 50s to lower 60s F over Guadalupes. Dew point temperatures will slowly be increasing from the 20s F to 30s F under persistent west/southwest winds advecting in modified Pacified air from Baja CA and warmer subtropical air from the northern MX plateau. Friday night still is expected to be the first night in a few weeks that low temperatures will struggle to drop below freezing anywhere, settling into the mid 30s to mid 40s F range. Ridging builds Saturday as lee troughing builds south from the CO Rockies, with increased southerly winds east of the lee troughing and west/southwest winds west of the lee troughing. The downslope winds allowing for adiabatic compressional warming allows highs to rise into the 70s F, 60s F higher elevations, and upper 70s to mid 80s F along the Rio Grande. Large scale sinking motion under the weak but building ridging maintains light winds, however clouds will be increasing as the omega block configuration of the ridge allows a mid to upper weather system to deepen over Pacific SW/Baja CA and then slowly propagate east-northeast into northern MX plateau/Southern Great Plains from late weekend into early next week. These clouds limit overnight cooling Saturday night and result in lows largely falling into the mid 40s F, 50s F Rio Grande basin and leeward foothills of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.

With increased forcing for ascent and moisture ahead of the mid to upper weather system, lee troughing sharpens into a cold front increasing lift and moisture convergence near the surface, with precipitation chances increasing from <15% to low to moderate (30% to 40%) from west to east. The increased clouds and evaporational cooling from rain showers results in highs similar to Friday, while the increased cloud cover continues to limit overnight cooling and results in similar lows as Sunday night. Low to moderate (30% to 40%) rain chances persist Monday into the overnight, with highs a few degrees cooler than Sunday but lows remaining similar to previous nights as dew point temperatures increase from the 30s F to the 40s F. Tuesday, the weather system aloft begins to open into a wave and propagate east-northeast in the quasi-zonal flow, leading to breezy to gusty west/southwest winds over much of the western higher terrain while subsidence in the wake of the system leads to rain chances decreasing back below <15% despite proximity of lee troughing and a Pacific front over the Great Basin into the Pacific SW. Highs remain largely in the 60s and 70s F, lows largely remain in the 40s to 50s F range (apart from some cooling into the 30s F over windward foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin), and winds remain south/southwest due to lee troughing rather than another push of notably colder air being the predominant forcing at the surface. However, flow aloft remains open to modified Pacific moisture and keeps higher cloud cover around. Forecast rain totals have decreased to a few hundredths of an inch in deterministic and ensemble models, WPC QPF remains only a few tenths of an inch, and ensemble spreads in rainfall accumulation remain low, indicating low risk of any flooding at this time, despite the prolonged duration of increased Pacific moisture. Moisture will not be lacking, but a means to concentrate and lift the moisture has not been apparent in models. We will continue to to see how the forecast for precipitation and wind progresses as next week draws closer.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy northerly winds (10-15 kts sustained) are expected this afternoon especially at MAF, HOB, and CNM terminals. Highest confidence in occasional wind gusts up to 25 kts occurring at MAF and HOB from 17Z-23Z. After 00Z, winds become light and veer south/southwesterly near the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 29 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 59 31 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 67 34 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 50 33 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 30 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 23 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 32 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 60 32 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 61 30 65 31 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.