textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are probable again today and Thursday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected through at least Thursday, especially over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region by Friday morning, bringing windy conditions to the area (especially through the Guadalupe Pass) and a much cooler weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Above normal temperatures continue through tonight with many settling into the upper 50s to low 60s. Normal lows for late March are usually in the 40s to low 50s. The upper level ridge begins to meander eastward and center over AZ/NM and flatten slightly. Highs on Thursday move a few degrees higher than today with many reaching back into the 90s. Areas along the Pecos River Valley look to top out around the century mark. Efficient cooling allows temperatures Thursday night to fall into the 50s for most with 40s in portions of southeast New Mexico and 60s in the Big Bend. Rain chances remain elusive during the short term forecast.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The long term period begins with a big cool-down as a strong cold front sweeps through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Behind the cold front, high northeasterly gap winds are forecast in the Guadalupe Pass from Friday morning through Saturday morning. As such, a High Wind Watch will likely need to be issued for the Guadalupe Mountains during this timeframe soon. A Wind Advisory may also be warranted across the adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains, the Davis Mountain Foothills, and portions of the Permian Basin. Afternoon highs Friday fall into the mid 60s to low 70s (80s near the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley). Temperatures look similar Saturday, though a few degrees warmer for most across the northern half of our CWA and 5-10 degrees cooler far south near the Rio Grande.

By Sunday, the upper-level ridge will build into the region and temperatures warm into the 80s for most. Temperatures look similar on Monday, albeit a few degrees warmer than Sunday. Cluster analysis shows a trough approaching our area by Monday afternoon, putting southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft. This brings an opportunity for low (10-20%) chances of showers, mainly across our western zones. However, there is uncertainty on exact timing, positioning, and amounts this far out. This will depend on the track of the upper-level trough and moisture quality. These details should become more evident over the next several days. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions remain at all terminals. Winds around 10kts hold through tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow due to unseasonably warm temperatures, minRHs below critical thresholds (<15%), and increased winds. The areas of concern both days are across southeast New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, and Pecos River Valley. Overnight recoveries are expected to be poor from western Eddy County south through the Sacramento Foothills. This will keep elevated Fire Weather conditions Thursday across the same areas on Thursday. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed again for tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 95 54 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 100 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 92 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 100 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 90 52 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 55 98 49 65 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 48 93 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 95 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 60 95 56 68 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 99 54 70 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.