textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot temperatures return across the area today and Thursday. The hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain chances become low to medium areawide.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts upper-level troughing over western portions of the CONUS this morning. Meanwhile, broad ridging aloft continues to be the main influence on our weather across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The big storyline through the Short Term period continues to be the hot temperatures. Highs in the upper 90s and above the century mark will be commonplace both today and Thursday. Locations in the Pecos River Valley and along the Rio Grande will tend to top out between 104-108 degrees, with some areas along the international border nearing 110 degrees. While temperatures are a bit too borderline for any Heat Advisory products, we nevertheless want to emphasize the need to drink plenty of water and be aware of signs of heat stress, especially if working or spending a lot of time outdoors the next couple of days.

Besides the heat, isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances persist both today and tomorrow. For this afternoon and evening, upslope flow and weak forcing along the dryline yield low (10-30%) PoPs across the higher terrain west of the Pecos and into the western Permian Basin. For tomorrow, the best chances (20-40%) will mainly be over the Davis Mountains, though a couple of isolated showers/storms may once again develop off the dryline in the western half of our area (chances are currently <10%). A few storms may become strong (producing gusty winds and small hail), while heavy rainfall could lead to localized instances of flash flooding. Nevertheless the overall severe threat is low. By the beginning of the Long Term Period, the aforementioned trough makes its way across northern portions of the CONUS, dampening the ridge and yielding slightly cooler temperatures. More on that in the Long Term Discussion below!

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper level trough traverses over the central Plains, then lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes region overnight Thursday. On the backside of the trough, surface high pressure over the central Plains pushes a weak cold front toward our area Thursday evening. The cold front approaches our northern counties early Friday morning; however, there is some model disagreement regarding how far south it shall reach before mixing out. Nevertheless, the trough dampens a ridge aloft, resulting in highs in the 90s for most, while those along the Rio Grande warm into the 100-110 degree range. Rain chances also increase Friday afternoon as a dryline sets up from eastern New Mexico southward to near the higher terrain in west Texas. Lift ahead of the dryline, the cold front, and from disturbances aloft will promote low to medium (10-60%) rain chances for much of our area Friday afternoon and evening. Rain chances over the northern and western Permian Basin currently range from 10-20%, 20-30% over most of the western half of the region, then 40-60% over the higher terrain.

Temperatures warm up a few degrees Saturday afternoon compared to Friday, with triple digit heat returning to the Pecos River Valley. Upslope flow ahead of the dryline again brings 10-40% rain chances to areas west of the Pecos River, especially in/near the higher terrain. Temperatures trend upward a touch further Sunday afternoon, as do rain chances due to disturbances rounding the top of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. Low to medium (15-60%) rain chances are progged to span areawide Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday into Tuesday, models indicate an upper level trough deepening over the Great Plains and pushing another cold front into our region. Afternoon highs both days are forecast to generally reach the mid 80s to mid 90s, accompanied by more chances for isolated to scattered shower/storm development. Given PWAT values anywhere between 1-2" (over the 75th percentile), through the next several days, the potential for flash flooding may be a concern worthy of monitoring going forward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites. Model guidance does attempt to bring MVFR CIGs just east of MAF later this morning, but confidence is currently too low to include a mention in the TAF. Southeasterly winds remain breezy this morning (with gusts between 20-25 kts, occasionally higher at FST in particular), generally becoming lighter near/after dawn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 104 73 106 73 / 20 10 0 0 Dryden 98 74 100 75 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 72 104 73 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 95 72 95 71 / 20 10 10 0 Hobbs 102 69 103 69 / 20 20 0 10 Marfa 96 63 96 62 / 30 20 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 98 72 100 74 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 98 72 100 73 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 103 73 104 74 / 20 20 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.