textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- An upper-level system and remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo will bring increasing chances of showers/storms Monday night through Wednesday morning across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already saturated soils remain a concern across southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin. Strong shear brings a concern for brief spin-up tornadoes over the same region Tuesday evening.

- A Pacific front is forecast to move through the area by mid- week, increasing shower/storm chances farther east and decreasing temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The forecast is on track for a wet short term period. Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough located over the west coast and Hurricane Polo off the coast of Baja. Meanwhile, the latest surface analysis shows evidence of a remnant boundary sitting across portions of the northeast Permian Basin. Along this boundary, a couple of isolated showers/storms may develop this afternoon and evening. Additional convection can be expected across our far western zones due to upslope flow and surface troughing.

Chances of rain begin to increase and extend farther east into southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin overnight into Tuesday morning as the aforementioned systems approach the area. Forecast soundings continue to show anomalously high PWAT Values between 1.4"-1.7" (> 90th percentile per the SPC Sounding Climatology page), long skinny CAPE profiles, strong deep- layer shear, and deep warm cloud layers. As a result, flash flooding due to heavy rainfall/runoff remains to be a concern across southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin where soils are saturated due to last week's rainfall. Given strong shear/favorably curved hodographs, we will also be monitoring for brief spin-up tornadoes (especially Tuesday evening) across portions of southeast New Mexico. CAMs even suggest this potential, showing storms evolving into a line by Tuesday evening which also yields a gusty wind threat. Otherwise, background winds are forecast to be quite breezy Tuesday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned trough passes overhead and inflow gets drawn into remnants of Polo from the Gulf. Higher winds are expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. However, winds shall remain below high wind criteria.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Wednesday, the base of the upper-level trough moves over our area and a Pacific front begins pushing through the region. As these systems progress, shower/storm chances move east across the eastern half of our CWA and bring drier conditions out west. However, it should be noted that dry slotting may prevent some areas from seeing some rain (including the Midland/Odessa area). Nevertheless, flash flooding due to locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Behind the Pacific front, southwesterly breezy conditions are forecast before subsiding Wednesday evening. Model guidance shows the front pushing south and east by the latter half of the week, keeping shower/storm chances across our far eastern zones (though adjustments to the forecasts are likely). Aside from rain chances, a cooling trend is expected to last all week (thanks to the front), with highs possibly dropping into the 70s by the end of the week and into the weekend. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR will prevail through much of the period. Mid level clouds and SHRA will increase from west to east this evening and move across the terminals into Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs are possible at KCNM by sunrise. Look for increasing southeast winds late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 90 72 88 / 10 20 60 80 Carlsbad 68 86 65 81 / 50 80 50 10 Dryden 75 93 74 94 / 10 10 50 50 Fort Stockton 72 91 71 89 / 20 20 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 64 77 60 69 / 80 80 60 20 Hobbs 68 85 65 80 / 50 70 90 20 Marfa 63 84 62 80 / 40 40 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 72 88 72 86 / 10 20 60 50 Odessa 73 88 72 86 / 20 20 60 30 Wink 73 92 72 87 / 40 60 70 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late Tuesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.