textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 452 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Below normal temperatures continue through tonight with readings falling to near to below freezing over much of the area.

- A sharp warming trend begins on Tuesday and continues through the weekend.

- Increasing potential for record heat late this week into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Cool surface high pressure is building across Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon in the wake of yesterday's strong cold front. Temperatures are much below normal for a change across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon with a canopy of high clouds also limiting solar insolation. Temperatures as of noon CDT are still only in the 40s over most of the area, afternoon maxima may only reach the mid to upper 40s over southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the higher terrain areas this afternoon. The surface high is forecast to move into central Texas tonight. Surface winds will become southeasterly to southerly tonight on the western side of the ridge. High level cloud cover should gradually decrease late tonight into Tuesday morning and with our area still remaining under the influence of the cool ridging, we expect another night of cold temperatures, with lows forecast to range in the mid 20s to around the freezing mark over southeast New Mexico, portions of the Permian Basin and the higher terrain areas. Since our average last freeze date is March 27th will opt not to issue freeze products for our area. We have been unseasonably warm for quite a while, so those that may have pets or tender vegetation outdoors in the above mentioned locations should be prepared to provide a warm place tonight.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues across our forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The surface ridge shifts further to our east on Tuesday while troughing develops over eastern New Mexico. Temperatures will trend warmer over the area along this feature, with highs expected to range in the 70s for most places, except for readings in the upper 60s over portions of the southeastern Basin/ eastern Lower Trans Pecos and in the higher terrain areas. Lows on Tuesday night will also trend warmer with readings in the upper 30s to the mid 40s for most, except for a few locations in the western CWA and along the Rio Grande in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

An upper-level high pressure system is forecast to strengthen over the Desert Southwest during the middle to latter part of the week and remain oriented over much of the Southwest into the upcoming weekend. The eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge will gradually build into our forecast area through Sunday. A surface trough will also extend over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas through the weekend. Low level thermal ridging will strengthen over our region late this week and this weekend, allowing temperatures to soar to well-above normal readings for late March. Highs mostly in the 80s on Wednesday will trend much warmer into the lower to mid 90s for most by late week. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday may reach into the mid to upper 90s over much of the region, with a few locations along the Rio Grande breaking above 100 degrees. Daily temperature records will likely be challenged or broken each day Thursday-Sunday. The record high temperature for March at Midland is 97 degrees set on 3/31/1946, and there appears to be a chance to at least tie this number Friday-Sunday. Overnight lows remain mild in the 40s and 50s, with a few overnight readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s by this weekend.

Daily High Temperature Records (MAF):

March 19th: 90 degrees (2017) March 20th: 94 degrees (2017) March 21st: 96 degrees (2017) March 22nd: 91 degrees (2018)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 452 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/plenty of high clouds initially. Return flow will become gusty after sunup Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 32 72 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 31 80 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 35 72 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 37 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 70 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 29 74 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 25 71 37 82 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 34 73 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 34 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 31 76 42 84 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.