textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

- There is a chance (30-40%) of patchy dense fog development across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos early this morning.

- Near record warmth is expected again today and Saturday.

- Much colder temperatures return Sunday night through Monday night following the passage of a cold front.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of light snow or a light wintry mix of precipitation over portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Sunday night into Monday night. We will be monitoring for the potential of at least light accumulations (particularly in the higher terrain areas), but our overall confidence on precipitation types and amounts still remains very low.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Shortwave ridging embedded within westerly to southwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent across west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning while surface troughing and a dryline extends from the central Plains through western Oklahoma and down into the Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the eastern Big Bend region. Surface dewpoints have increased into the mid to upper 50s across locations east of the dryline early this morning and there is another chance (30-40%) of patchy dense fog development across portions of the central and eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos through the early morning hours. Scattered to broken high level cloud cover could help prevent fog formation. We will continue to monitor satellite and observational trends over the next several hours for patchy fog development.

Ridging aloft looks to remain intact across the central and southern Plains and throughout much of the state of Texas today. Surface lee troughing will also extend across southeast New Mexico and west Texas again this afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will take shape over our forecast area on Saturday in advance of an upper-level trough that will be translating toward the Four Corners and Desert Southwest while lee troughing remains in place from the TX/NM border to the Big Bend region. This pattern will continue to support near record warmth across our forecast area today and Saturday with highs forecast to range in the mid 70s to mid 80s over much of our region. The record high temperature at Midland for December 26th is 84 degrees (set in 2021) and for December 27th is 79 degrees (also set in 2021). Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night will also remain well above normal with readings in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The upper-level trough will continue to progress eastward across the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains states on Sunday. An associated cold front will advance southward through southeast New Mexico and west Texas Sunday evening into late Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal over much of our forecast area ahead of this approaching cold front during the day Sunday before temperatures finally turn sharply colder with increasing northeasterly winds Sunday night into Monday following the passage of the front. Lows Sunday night are forecast to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s across the southeast New Mexico plains, much of the Permian Basin, and the higher terrain areas, while readings in the Big Bend and the Lower Trans Pecos will mostly range in the mid 30s to lower 40s. High temperatures on Monday look to trend much below normal with numbers only looking to reach into the 40s over much of the region, except lower to mid 30s in the mountains and in the 50s along the Rio Grande.

A few of the latest ensemble and operational model solutions also continue to hint at the potential for light wintry precipitation across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Marfa Plateau, and potentially into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin region late Sunday night into Monday night. Light precipitation could develop over these areas courtesy of increased deep layer moisture and ascent along the southern periphery of a strong upper level jet streaming over the southern Rockies. The ECMWF has been more aggressive with precipitation development, but the 00Z GEFS does also indicate some wintry precipitation potential over these locations during this time frame. Confidence in precipitation type remains low and these details will need to be sorted out over the next several shifts. The atmosphere looks sufficiently cold enough to support precipitation in the form of light snow over the higher terrain areas, though there could be a light rain/snow mix with any precipitation that develops further east and south during the day Monday where temperatures may be slightly warmer in the lower levels. The latest forecast will continue to highlight low (20-30%) chances of light snow or a light rain/snow mix Sunday night through Monday night over the above mentioned locations. We will continue to monitor this developing winter weather event over the next few days. Confidence is too low to speculate on accumulations this far in advance, but we may need to watch for the potential of at least light snow accumulations, particularly over the higher terrain areas of our western CWA during the Sunday night through Monday night time frame. Another cold night is anticipated Monday night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s over much of the region. A few locations in the Big Bend/Terrell County could experience their first freeze this season by Monday night.

Ridging aloft looks to gradually rebuild over our forecast area during the middle to latter half of next week. A gradual warming trend is expected Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR conditions will remain prevalent across the forecast area through the period underneath scattered to broken high level cloud decks. There is still a low chance of patchy fog development with visibility locally reduced to less than 3SM over the eastern Permian Basin early this morning, but confidence was too low to include mention at KMAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 82 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 51 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 84 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 82 56 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 52 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 77 44 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 81 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 81 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 82 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.