textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- A few showers and storms may develop over the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau this afternoon.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are likely Wednesday and Thursday with many locations experiencing their first 100 degree day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Warmer southerly flow today boosts highs 5F to 10F warmer than yesterday and into the 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher terrain. Daytime heating of elevated terrain will result in a 25% to 35% chance of showers/storms over the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos into Presidio and Brewster Counties this afternoon/evening. NBM indicates at most a few tenths of an inch where rain does fall, keeping the primary threats with any storms to lightning and gusty winds. A LLJ this evening into the overnight will limit overnight cooling over the Permian Basin into the Pecos River valley, keeping lows from falling below the mid 60s to mid 70s F range, with upper 50s to lower to mid 60s F for the Marfa Plateau through Stockton Plateau.

A negatively titled lee trough/dryline mixes east Wednesday afternoon as southerly winds shift to westerly winds. Unusually strong downsloping westerly winds for this time of the year of 15 to 25 mph will occur behind the boundary, driving compressional warming. NAEFS ensembles indicate temperatures 4.5 to 5.5 standard deviations above normal, while NBM indicates dew point temperatures dropping into the 40s to lower 50s F west of the eastern Permian Basin into Big Bend. Temperatures will not only be the warmest so far this summer, but the warmest in a few years, with triple digit highs nearly areawide. There is a 55% to 65% chance of highs up 105F to 110F along the Pecos River valley into the central Permian Basin, including the Midland-Odessa region. This will be close to the latest on record that Midland-Odessa has seen highs in the triple digits (latest on record 100F day being June 18, 2007). For the Big Bend and even parts of the Pecos River valley into northern Stockton Plateau, a 40% to 50% chance of highs up to the 110F to 115F range are indicated in ensembles. Despite some higher elevations of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau remaining in the 90s F, we have issued a Heat Advisory for all of the forecast area. Downsloping winds maintaining dry air characterized by dew point temperatures below the mid 50s F and PWATs below 1.00" will yield near zero rain chances across the area, so we are not expecting afternoon/evening showers/storms even over the heated higher terrain.

Lows Wednesday night will remain above average, more specifically 3.0 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. Lows are forecast to only fall into the 65F to 75F range and above as a result, largely remaining above 80F in regions such as the northern Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande basin that see the warmest temperatures Wednesday. The heat continues Thursday, but how near surface features setup and influence the daytime temperature pattern remains uncertain. Then, a more typical summer-time type weather pattern returns late week into the weekend. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Hot conditions are forecast to start off the Long Term period before cooler temperatures return heading into the weekend. The cool down shall come courtesy of a cold front ushered in by the same surface low responsible for Wednesday's heat. However, model data continues to show variability regarding the exact position and timing of the low and its associated front on Thursday. As such, Thursday's highs will depend on these factors. For now, ensembles have the cold front entering our region sometime early Thursday afternoon, then clearing the region once high pressure sets in behind the front Friday. Triple digit highs will be possible ahead of the front, while 90s are likely behind it. By Friday, highs generally look to reach the 90s. In addition to cooler temperatures, isolated to scattered showers/ storms are progged to develop Thursday afternoon into Friday, driven by lift from both the front and a few shortwave impulses. Rain chances range from 10-30% Thursday evening and overnight, with the best odds over and near the higher terrain in west Texas and the eastern Permian Basin. Friday afternoon, rain chances become 20-30% for much of the region, and 40- 50% in/near the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend. Of course, details shall be ironed out as things take shape.

Upper level ridging briefly builds in overhead Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the upper 90s become more commonplace Saturday, as well as a return to triple digit heat near and along the river valleys. Highs beyond the century mark look to span across much of the area again Sunday and Monday, with the exception of the higher terrain. Next Tuesday, temperatures taper down a few degrees and low rain chances return in the forecast as models hint at another weak cold front and slightly lower heights aloft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southerly winds become westerly 15-18Z Wednesday behind a dryline moving across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 108 77 108 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 107 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 104 74 110 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 71 106 78 106 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 68 107 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 107 77 107 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 107 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 108 78 106 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea- Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.