textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

- Scattered (30-50%) afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Davis Mountains, Upper Trans Pecos, Marfa and Stockton Plateau, and Big Bend region today. Other isolated (10-20%) showers and storms may develop over far southeast New Mexico and portions of the Permian Basin. A few storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop each day over western portions of the region Friday through the weekend, with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

An upper-level ridge will generally continue to extend from Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states through Friday afternoon. Our forecast area will remain situated along the western periphery of this feature through the remainder of the week. Weak shortwave impulses rounding the western side of the ridge will move across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Weak ascent in association with these features along with plentiful deep layer moisture (precipitable water values 1.2-1.6") and afternoon heating and instability will aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Marfa and Stockton Plateaus, and Big Bend region. The greatest coverage (30-50%) will once again be favored over the higher terrain of southwest Texas. A few of the storms that develop will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Dry weather conditions otherwise prevail from the eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower Trans Pecos where subsidence will be more prolific. Another hot day is expected with afternoon high temperatures forecast to reach into the upper 90s to around 104 degrees over much of the region, except around 90 to the lower 90s in the mountains and up to 109 degrees along parts of the Rio Grande. Lows tonight continue to range in the 70s over most of the area, except in the 60s in the higher terrain.

The broad upper-level ridge will gradually build westward on Friday. Subsidence will increase over much of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos underneath this feature Friday afternoon and evening, while deep layer moisture also shifts into western portions of our CWA. Isolated to scattered (20-50%) afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will generally become more confined to the southeast New Mexico plains and locations along and west of the Pecos River in west Texas Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures otherwise remain hot with afternoon highs forecast to range in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees over most places, except lower 90s in the mountains and between 102-108 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The broad upper-level ridge will continue to retrograde/build westward over much of the southern CONUS this weekend and will remain dominant through the middle of next week. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain areas of the western CWA this weekend, but overall coverage looks to become very few and far between over the higher terrain Monday through Wednesday. Hot and dry conditions will be prevalent over most of the forecast area through the extended period under the ridge. Highs continue to range in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees for most each day, with readings in the lower 90s over mountain areas and 102-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Early morning lows will range in the 60s in the mountains and in the 70s over the rest of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR will remain prevalent through the period with generally southerly winds. Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop across portions of southeast NM and west TX again this afternoon and evening. Some storms will be capable of producing strong and erratic wind gusts. For now our confidence was limited to including PROB30 mention for TSRA at KPEQ, KFST, and KINK after 20-21Z today but it is possible isolated convection could develop near KHOB and KMAF late this afternoon into early this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 102 76 101 74 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 100 74 100 73 / 10 10 20 30 Dryden 102 77 100 75 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 74 98 73 / 30 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 30 30 Hobbs 100 72 99 71 / 10 10 10 20 Marfa 92 64 91 63 / 40 20 40 30 Midland Intl Airport 100 76 99 74 / 10 20 0 0 Odessa 100 76 99 74 / 10 20 0 0 Wink 101 75 100 75 / 20 10 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.