textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Friday morning.

- A disturbance brings the return of rain chances beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Tranquil weather conditions will continue across the forecast area through today and Friday morning. Upper level ridging persists across the Four Corners region, with the axis of the ridge right along the AZ/NM border. This is continuing to bring a region of dry air and subsidence to the forecast area (this is well noted in the 12z MAF sounding). In turn, primarily calm conditions and light winds will persist throughout the day today. Temperatures are most likely to be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with higher temperatures near the Presidio Valley and areas along the Rio Grande River. The trend of primarily above average low temperatures continues tonight, with mid 40s to low 50s across the area. There is a low chance for patchy fog to develop primarily in the Trans-Pecos region, but current forecast trends have it isolated in nature. Nevertheless, if caught in fog, remember to keep extra distance between vehicles.

For Friday, the morning remains calm, but we begin to see the aforementioned ridging break down and a shortwave progress towards the region. A corridor of greater synoptic lift begins to enter the western portion of the forecast area by early afternoon, bringing numerous rain showers to the region. Instability is forecast to be limited, but the lift associated with the progressing shortwave as well as meager SBCAPE values should allow for embedded thunderstorms to develop within the rain shield. The shortwave continues to push across the region through Friday night, bringing additional rainfall to a majority of the forecast area. Most likely rainfall amounts through early Saturday morning currently stand at widespread 0.5- 0.75", with some local orographic enhancements up to 1" across the mountains in and near Culberson County. NBM 90th percentile amounts do show 1.5-2" primarily Trans-Pecos region southward and westward, however there is low confidence in these amounts materializing. The first limiting factor is that the CAMs are quite different in the placement of heavier rain. The HRRR keeps most of the rain south of our New Mexico counties and into the Big Bend region, while the RRFS and the RAP stretch the precipitation further into NM. Additionally, the overall lack of instability would think to limit the rainfall rates. Nonetheless, cannot rule out a few locations getting over 1.5" of rainfall, with the more likely area being in the mountains that experience orographic forcing.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Precipitation shifts further east through Saturday morning and mid afternoon, settling over the Permian Basin as the shortwave ejects out over the southern Great Plains. There's some noticeable discrepancy between the deterministic models on where exactly (and how much) rain falls on Saturday. The GFS is a bit on the drier side, which is likely the case of later formation of a surface low across eastern NM, which itself is the result of a shallower trough moving across CO. The ECMWF is wetter, with the surface low forming quicker as the trough across CO is deeper. Regardless of the solution that plays out, rain continues to be favored across the Permian Basin eastward. As that aforementioned surface low develops, winds look to pick up across our western areas and primarily near the Guadalupe Mountains. With an increasing surface pressure gradient, west to southwest winds may gust up to 25-35mph, with localized gusts upward of 45mph near the Guadalupe Mountains. After the surface low progresses eastward through Saturday, it looks poised to send a cold front through our area Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds behind the front are not likely to be quite strong at this time, but high temperatures will plummet on Monday compared to previous days (currently forecasting low to mid 50s for high temperatures outside of areas right along the Rio Grande River). Not expecting precipitation with this front, though cannot completely rule out light drizzle and/or low clouds persisting at times. The next feature to watch will be another trough progressing into western CONUS on Tuesday. Current guidance has some showers skirting through our New Mexico areas, though a deeper/stronger trough may push showers further south into TX. The rest of the week looks to be active with additional troughs approaching from the west, along with the northward advection of Gulf moisture, but where exactly these features are able to set up will dictate the weather across our area. Thus, there is low confidence in the forecast past Tuesday at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to remain prevalent through the forecast period, though we cannot rule out a brief period of very patchy fog with VIS reductions to MVFR to IFR thresholds near KPEQ between 10-16Z. Confidence remained low enough to keep mention out of the TAF for now but will monitor trends. SE winds increase to 10-15 kt for most terminals Friday afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 48 69 51 62 / 0 0 30 60 Carlsbad 46 69 51 67 / 0 10 60 0 Dryden 53 69 53 68 / 0 0 80 10 Fort Stockton 49 74 53 70 / 0 0 90 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 65 48 57 / 0 40 100 0 Hobbs 45 69 50 65 / 0 0 80 20 Marfa 43 68 46 63 / 0 0 90 0 Midland Intl Airport 49 71 52 65 / 0 0 50 30 Odessa 49 70 52 65 / 0 0 40 20 Wink 47 71 53 68 / 0 0 90 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.