textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- A warming trend begins tomorrow and continues until Wednesday.

- Increased shower/storm chances Wednesday into Thursday will accompany another cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A much cooler but short-lived temperature pattern today, followed by temperatures quickly rising back to above average by Sunday. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts scattered to broken cloud cover drifting from southwest to northeast, mainly over the eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Brewster into Terrell Counties. Clearer skies to the southwest will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s F southwest of the Pecos River by late evening, while remnant cloud cover limiting daytime heating east of the Marfa Plateau and northeast of the Pecos River will prevent temperatures from rising above 70F. East/northeast winds veer to southeast as lee troughing redevelops over central NM into westernmost TX today, with light southerly winds continuing overnight. The winds will advect increased boundary layer moisture/dew point temperatures in the 30s and 40s F into much of the area throughout the day, limiting overnight cooling. Temperatures will be slower to cool off than yesterday as a result of diminishing CAA and ensuing WAA, decreasing largely into the mid 40s to mid 50s F only by midnight, and then bottoming out into the 40s and 50s F early morning through sunrise Sunday. Persistent southerly winds becoming breezy during the afternoon with strengthening lee troughing over the SE NM plains into Presidio Valley will allow temperatures to quickly soar back into the 70s F by late morning, into the mid 70s to mid 80s F by early afternoon, and into the 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s to 90s F Rio Grande basin by the evening. Breeziest winds are expected over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County as lee troughing intensifies and sharpens into a dryline with dew point temperatures in the 20s and 30s F to the west of the dryline and dew point temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s F east of the dryline. The higher daytime temperatures taking longer to cool off paired with increased boundary layer moisture east of a dryline and mechanical mixing of the boundary layer from breezy winds will prevent temperatures from dropping below 70F, 60F higher elevations until late Sunday night/midnight, with lows bottoming out into the mid 50s to lower 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin by Monday morning. A week of warm and breezy weather is ahead, but shower/storm chances may return by the middle of next week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Above average strength of mid to upper ridging and temperatures staying 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal keeps spring-like temperatures in the forecast for next week, while increasing mid to upper troughing over the Intermountain West halts the rising trend in temperatures before they become more summer-like. Temperatures Monday rise back into the mid 70s to mid 80s F by noon, and then mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid 90s to upper 90s F Big Bend by late afternoon/evening as breezy southwest winds west of the dryline and south/southeast winds east of the dryline continue to transport warm air into the area and large scale sinking motion from ridging aloft suppresses rain chances. The southerly flow maintains dew point temperatures above 35F overnight, limiting overnight cooling and again paired with warmer daytime temperatures, keeps lows in the 50s and 60s F, mid to upper 40s F southwest foothills of the Marfa Plateau. Deterministic and ensemble models are consistent in depicting deepening of mid to upper troughing over the Intermountain West starting Tuesday, which will lead to increasing frequency of disturbances brushing the area and providing forcing for ascent and moisture aloft to increase chance of showers/storms, but also allow weakness in the flow pattern to enable passage of weak cold fronts that shift winds from southerly to westerly. Rain chances remain low (<10%) for Tuesday and highs for Tuesday have trended up from previous runs indicating later cold frontal passage than shown in previous runs. NBM now indicates highs in the mid 80s to 90s F from Terrell County and along the Pecos River, from the eastern Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos, southern SE NM plains, through most of the Permian Basin - while keeping highs in the upper 70s F higher elevations and lower to mid 80s F western higher terrain into the rest of the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin. However, the same overall pattern of cooler temperatures north/northwest parts of the area seen in previous runs has held. Winds shift to westerly Tuesday evening heralding the advance of a cold front from north to south. CAA behind this weak cold front will allow lows to drop into the mid 40s F northern Lea County and northwest Permian Basin as well as southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau, lower to mid 50s F north of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and lower to mid 60s F for the Rio Grande basin.

The more unsettled weather pattern for the middle to end of next week will be characterized by spring-like temperatures and diurnally driven breezy afternoon winds, with occasional chances of showers/storms for the middle part of the week. CAA behind the weak cold front from Tuesday evening and increased clouds will keep temperatures Wednesday below 80F for western higher terrain, much of SE NM plains, and Permian Basin, below 85F basins of Culberson County, central parts of the Rio grande basin into Stockton Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos, and below the mid 90s F along the Rio Grande apart from the Big Bend. NBM is still showing low (<30%) shower/storm chances from passing disturbances aloft increasing overnight and into Thursday morning into the low to medium (25% to 45%) chance range, mainly northeast of the Pecos River and extending south into the Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County. NBM deterministic and ensemble total accumulations have increased from a few hundredths of an inch up to between 0.10" and 0.20" over eastern parts of the area as PoPs have trended up, but still remain low as uncertainty about timing, coverage, and intensity of precipitation remains. Shower/storm chances taper off through early Thursday morning as temperatures bottom out at values similar to Tuesday night, but a few degrees cooler.

Diminished mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion will still elongate/expand over the southern CONUS mid to late next week prior to another cold front passage. This will allow highs during that period to rebound, shower/storm chances to decrease and stay very low (<10%), and diurnally driven afternoon southerly winds east of the dryline/southwest winds west of the dryline to persist. Highs undergo a warming trend from mid 70s and mid 80s F, lower to mid 90s F along the Rio Grande Thursday to mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid to upper 70s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County for Friday. A Pacific cold front on forecast surface frontal analyses is currently predicted to clear the area to close next week and begin next weekend, delivering cooler temperatures beginning Friday night with lows again dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s F for most of the area in comparison to mainly mid 50s to lower 60s F, mid to upper 40s F higher elevations forecast for Thursday night. This cold front will again be followed by cooler temperatures to start next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 48 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 44 88 53 92 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 48 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 49 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 49 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 42 85 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 82 44 85 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 49 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 49 84 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 46 87 54 92 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.