textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New Mexico Plains through this evening.

- Warmer and drier conditions return this weekend, with exception of our southern counties.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler temperatures and rain chances to our area mid next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As per the 500mb RAP analysis, the center of an upper ridge hovers near SE TX. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough overlays the western US. WV imagery shows moisture continuing to stream aloft within southwesterly flow, with drier air beginning to filter in. A shortwave embedded in the larger trough lifts northeast today into tonight, dampening the ridge and shifting it westward. As the shortwave swings by, associated lift will aid in additional isolated to scattered shower/ storm development this afternoon into the overnight hours. Rain chances range from 10-60% in the western 2/3 of the region this afternoon. The best (30-60%) odds will be focused near the higher terrain in west Texas (especially the Guadalupes) and areas west of the Pecos River. Tonight, rain chances gradually taper down. A Flash Flood Watch has been extended through this evening over SE NM, Far West Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains as additional rounds of heavy rainfall are in the forecast. These areas have already seen plentiful rainfall the last several days. As such, soils in the watch area are saturated, suggesting any additional rainfall will quickly result in flash flooding. Aside from heavy rainfall, a few storms may produce gusty winds.

Saturday, upper ridging builds back over our region. Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances favor our southern portions Saturday afternoon (highest chances near the Davis'). Drier conditions return and highs in the 90s start to spread westward. SE NM and the higher terrain in west Texas are forecast to top out in the 80s tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night are expected to cool to the 60s/70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper ridging continues to build back over west Texas and SE NM Sunday, ahead of another storm system. Highs Sunday and Monday look to reach the 80s (western counties) to 90s. Monday, our next storm system begins to approach our area. Lift along the edge of the trough brings the return of rain chances to our western zones during the afternoon, spreading eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Long-range models suggest moisture from Hurricane Polo becomes entrained into the upper trough as it swings over New Mexico Tuesday. As the system and its associated cold front translates over our region Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances increase areawide. Something to monitor next week is the potential for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially if moisture from Polo combines with the trough. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the exact setup and specific impacts with this upcoming system. Otherwise, lowering heights Tuesday result in highs ranging in the 80s to low 90s. A cold front brings widespread highs in the 80s, with 70s in the higher terrain Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow. Best chances for convection overnight, as per the past few days, will be Southeast New Mexico, but all terminals have a chance of getting hit overnight. Skies should begin scattering out Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 92 70 95 / 20 10 20 0 Carlsbad 64 89 64 90 / 40 0 0 0 Dryden 73 94 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 70 92 70 93 / 20 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 81 63 82 / 30 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 87 64 89 / 30 0 0 0 Marfa 60 86 60 87 / 30 40 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 69 90 70 92 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 70 90 70 92 / 30 10 10 0 Wink 70 93 69 95 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.