textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs pushing up to 115 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds is the primary hazards with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An expansive upper-level ridge centered over the Desert SW will begin to migrate eastward over the next few days, keeping much of the region within an intense thermal trough. This pattern will result in well-above-normal temperatures. H85 temperatures are progged to climb into the 30-34C range this afternoon. This translates to surface temperatures ranging from 95-100 degrees in the mountains and 110-115 along the Rio Grande where Heat Advisories are in effect. While we areas further north aren't in the advisory, it will still be very hot with highs up to 105.

A dryline will serve as the primary focus for isolated, high- based convection this afternoon, primarily across the higher terrain, east into the Permian Basin. This dryline will sharpen along a Seminole to Wink to Alpine line by late afternoon. To the west of the dryline, deeply mixed conditions will lead to breezy southwesterly winds. East of the boundary, a narrow corridor of modest moisture will provide enough instability for isolated thunderstorm development. Given the high LCLs and large sub-cloud inverted-V profiles, the primary threat with these storms will be damaging microburst winds.

Very little changes Saturday with more Heat Advisories likely and another shot at showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Models suggest the upper ridge will build extensively over the eastern U.S. early to middle of next week as an upper trough develops across the central Rockies. This pattern will allow for a break in the current heat wave with temperatures "cooling" back toward normal. Chances for showers and storms will also increase, peaking Monday/Tuesday across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. The upper ridge begins to shift back west late in the week and weekend helping to increase subsidence over the region. Expect much drier conditions and the heat to return just in time for the 4th of July weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Mid level clouds will continue to move across the region this morning before clearing by late morning. Gusty south winds will return by afternoon with VFR prevailing through the period. Isolated TS will develop by late afternoon, but confidence remains low regarding location and exact timing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 104 75 103 75 / 20 30 10 10 Carlsbad 104 74 104 75 / 20 20 20 20 Dryden 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 105 74 102 73 / 10 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 94 71 93 72 / 10 20 10 10 Hobbs 102 71 102 71 / 20 20 20 20 Marfa 97 65 95 64 / 20 20 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 103 75 101 75 / 20 30 20 20 Odessa 103 75 101 75 / 20 30 20 20 Wink 105 75 104 75 / 20 30 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

NM...None.