textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 517 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms are in store this afternoon/evening over western portions of the region, while storm chances decrease on Monday. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper-level low entering southeastern Brewster County bringing light rain showers. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Ark-La-Tex region. The aforementioned low is expected to shift northwest throughout the morning and afternoon. As a result, more isolated to scattered showers/storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Big Bend, Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West Texas. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main hazards with the strongest storms, thanks to inverted-V profiles and slightly higher mean climatological Precipitable Water values (PWATs) via CAMs. Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated across the region as the low brings thicknesses down from yesterday. Highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90s for most locations, with the exception of highs in the upper 80s across the higher terrain.

Tonight, the upper low transitions into portions of far West Texas, supplying a very low chance (< 15%) of light rain showers. Lows are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most. Monday, the upper ridge of high pressure becomes the main feature moving forward, resulting in much drier weather and warmer temperatures. Isolated storms (10-20%) stick around across areas in/near the higher terrain and far West Texas as the low will continue to shift westward. Warmer high temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s are on tap areawide.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and dry weather pattern is in store for next week as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the ridge staying over the region through at least next weekend. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river valleys look to range from 105 to 110. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two (< 10%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains each afternoon due to upslope flow, though sinking motion under the ridge will hinder convective initiation.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

South/southeast winds at terminals throughout the period, with gusts up to 20 knots and higher through the afternoon and early evening before decreasing later tonight. A very low (<10%) chance of isolated showers/storms is present this afternoon through evening, mainly for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and strong and variable winds are expected to be the main impacts from any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 98 72 / 10 0 10 0 Dryden 99 75 99 73 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 73 97 72 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 68 89 68 / 20 10 20 0 Hobbs 97 70 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 88 61 90 61 / 30 20 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.