textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Best storm chances shift west today and Thursday, generally west of the Pecos. Chances drop off after Thursday, but will be optimal in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected today and Thursday, before a warm-up through Independence Day. This will be followed by slightly cooler conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough approaching the Four Corners, and a secondary trough developing/strengthening on the west coast, the net effect of which will be to keep West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued and progressive southwest flow aloft today, and to a lesser extent, Thursday. For those who like the cooler temperatures, today's highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday's, averaging 1-2 F below climatology. Latest progs suggest this will be the coolest day this forecast. Assisting the cooldown will be another round of convection this afternoon/evening, mainly over the higher terrain out west, replete with abundant cloud cover. KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.48", which is just under the 95th percentile, so continued concerns w/convection will be gusty winds/flash flooding. Abundant rainfall would be nice before fireworks on and before Independence Day.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is set to redevelop, and this will keep the boundary layer mixed, combining with plenty of cloud cover in southwest flow aloft to keep overnight minimums ~ 4-6 F above normal. Unfortunately, unseasonably warm overnight minimums will prevail for the duration of this forecast, offering little relief from daytime heat.

Thursday, the upper ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS will begin nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in increasing thicknesses over the area. Highs will be warmer than today, but only by a degree or so. The encroachment of the upper ridge will keep better chances of convection farther west, with best chances naturally over the Davis Mountains.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Friday into next week, the upper ridge will continue developing west, passing through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico around Saturday. Highs will increase through then, peaking on Independence Day some 4-6 F above normal. Although this looks to be the warmest day this forecast, triple digits will be confined mainly to the river valleys. Sunday into next week, the ridge will center somewhere in the southwest invof Baja/Sonora, resulting in northerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and cooler temperatures than Independence Day.

Unfortunately, this synoptic scenario portends a rather dry extended, with what meager chances there are favoring orographically- driven activity invof the Davis Mountains each day. If the ridge can meander far enough west next week, this may open a window or two as impulses rotate down the eastern periphery of the ridge (Sunday night?), but this is too far out to hang a hat on at this point, and will likely change. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in areas of convection, the best chances of which will be invof KFST/KPEQ/KCNM, and mainly during the afternoon. Return flow will prevail, elevated during the overnight hours due to a 40 kt recurring LLJ. Plenty of high cloud will be present in SW flow aloft, but forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 93 70 94 70 / 40 20 20 10 Dryden 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 72 93 72 / 30 10 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 66 86 67 / 40 20 40 10 Hobbs 89 68 91 68 / 30 20 30 10 Marfa 84 60 85 60 / 50 20 60 10 Midland Intl Airport 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 0 Odessa 92 73 93 74 / 20 10 10 0 Wink 91 72 93 72 / 30 20 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.