textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Isolated thunderstorms along a dryline cutting north-south across the central Permian Basin will develop over the next few hours and progress eastward by this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards that the strongest storms will be capable of producing. Storms will decay after sunset tonight and much of the area should see mainly clear conditions. A High Wind Warning continues for the Guadalupe Mountains where strong winds are expected through the early evening. A Wind Advisory also continues for the Eddy County Plains where gusty winds are expected. Localized areas of blowing dust may sharply reduce visibilities. Winds decrease by tonight.

The aforementioned dryline retreats to the west tonight and keeps areas east of the TX/NM border in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the west, drier air allows for more efficient cooling and some spots dip into the upper 40s. For Wednesday, another warm day is expected with areawide temperatures reaching into the 80s. Big Bend will be the hot spot with highs in the 90s, particularly across the low desert. Isolated storms will once again be possible over the eastern most reaches of the CWA, generally east of a line from Big Spring south into eastern Pecos County.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Heading into Wednesday night, any afternoon convection from earlier that day should decay or move off to the east of the area. Drier air filters in and much of the area ends up several degrees cooler compared to the night before with many in the 50s to upper 40s. Low (10-20%) rain chances exist for the eastern Permian Basin and down towards Terrell County both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Both days will see highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s. At the same time, low RHs and increasing winds to the west of Midland/Odessa, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. A cold front is pushed through the area late Friday and into Saturday bringing temperatures below normal for Saturday. Another disturbance looks to move through on Sunday bringing cloudy and rainy conditions to areas mainly south of I-20. Rain amounts look to be low, but stay tuned to changes in the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail at most sites through the period. Breezy southwest winds are expected this afternoon, tapering down during the evening. Strongest winds will be at HOB and CNM (occasional gusts between 30-40 kts). Isolated showers and storms develop later this afternoon, heading eastward through the evening hours. Best (~30%) rain chances lie over MAF and FST. Have included a PROB30 at FST, holding of on MAF at the moment. Amendments shall be made as necessary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continues this afternoon for areas across southeast New Mexico and adjacent West Texas counties. Similar areas will be monitored for future RFDs through Thursday as similar conditions (elevated winds, minRHs below 15%, and dry fuels) are expected each afternoon. The focus shifts to Friday as a larger area of critical RHs, increased winds, and dry fuels will be assessed for a future Fire Weather Watch. An upper level disturbance makes its way into the region early Friday increasing winds and bringing a front to the area later that day and into evening. Recent rains and better RHs have improved the fuel landscape in Texas, but areas in southeast New Mexico have seen less rain and will see critically dry conditions through the rest of this week. A cold front moves through the region late Friday and into Saturday that will shift from the west and southwest to northerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 86 54 88 / 30 20 0 10 Carlsbad 55 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 87 61 87 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 62 86 56 89 / 20 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 52 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 81 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 48 78 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 85 55 87 / 30 10 0 10 Odessa 62 84 55 86 / 30 10 0 10 Wink 59 85 50 89 / 20 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains.