textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Isolated showers/storms are in store today and tomorrow afternoon across portions of far west Texas, southeast New Mexico, and higher terrain.

- Patchy fog may occur Wednesday morning across the Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and Permian Basin. When visibilities get low, take it slow!

- Numerous showers/storms are in store Thursday through Friday evening across the eastern half of the region. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially across low-lying and urban areas.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Satellite and radar imagery as of 12 PM CDT has low clouds and fog dissipating across portions of southeast New Mexico, northern Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Southwesterly flow aloft and upslope flow will bring additional isolated convection across portions of far West Texas, southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains later in the afternoon through early evening. Heights begin to increase today lasting through tomorrow, promoting drier and warmer conditions across the region. Highs each day are forecast to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with Wednesday being the warmer day. Tonight into tomorrow morning, surface southerly to southeasterly winds advect moisture from the Gulf allowing patchy fog to develop during the early morning hours. Areas across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and near Pecos River Valley may have isolated spots of dense fog, reducing visibilities to less than 1/4 mile. When visibilities become low, take it slow tomorrow morning! Lows are expected to range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Isolated to scattered storms are in store across similar areas (far W TX and higher terrain) tomorrow afternoon and evening. Gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats with the strongest storms. A more active and wetter pattern takes shape heading into Thursday. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An upper-level shortwave trough along with abundant moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance will bring rainfall for much of the region Thursday through Friday evening. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will begin across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos Thursday morning before spreading northward by the afternoon and evening. Precipitable Water values (PWATs) exceed the 90th climatological percentile for areas across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Permian Basin. These values indicate the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Guidance looks to have a brief window of a storm or two becoming strong Thursday afternoon, where gusty winds (up to 55 mph) may occur. Overall, the severe weather threat remains very low and flash flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Medium to long- range guidance has the heavy rainfall threat peaking Thursday night through early Friday afternoon as rain coverage becomes numerous to widespread during this timeframe. Urban and low-lying areas will be the most susceptible spots for flash flooding. Uncertainty still remains where exactly the heaviest rainfall will happen and precise rainfall amounts. Ensembles show medium probabilities (40-70%) of two inches or more of rainfall across the Lower Trans Pecos extending into the northern Permian Basin. Isolated amounts up to 6" may occur per longer range high resolution models. By Friday evening, the upper-level shortwave trough lifts northeast. As a result, lingering light showers hang around Friday night across the far eastern half of the area, though little impacts (flash flooding) are expected by that time.

Subtle upper ridging builds back into the region Saturday afternoon through early Sunday bringing drier and warmer weather. Highs are expected to range from the 70s to low 80s both days. Another upper- level system approaches from the west, supplying additional low (10- 40%) rain chances late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This system will eventually send a cold front by early next week. Guidance does have an upper-low deepening near the region which will be favorable for strong winds. This type of setup can be favorable for potential gap winds at Guadalupe Pass, along with blowing dust concerns mainly across open fields and construction sites. Much cooler temperatures are forecast by early to mid next week as surface high pressure builds in from the Rockies ushering in colder air to the region.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Latest CAMs and NBM suggest LIFR cigs/vsbys will be possible again for a few hours Wednesday morning, but only at KMAF/KHOB. Otherwise, a sparse cu field will be possible south Wednesday afternoon, w/a few high clouds throughout the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 81 61 77 / 0 0 10 70 Carlsbad 56 82 58 76 / 0 20 10 30 Dryden 61 80 62 73 / 0 0 30 90 Fort Stockton 59 83 61 76 / 0 10 20 70 Guadalupe Pass 55 73 56 68 / 10 20 20 40 Hobbs 56 78 57 74 / 0 0 0 40 Marfa 51 77 53 69 / 0 20 20 90 Midland Intl Airport 60 79 61 75 / 0 0 10 70 Odessa 60 79 61 75 / 0 0 0 70 Wink 59 82 60 76 / 0 10 0 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.