textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1115 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions expected today across southeast New Mexico and Culberson County.

- Fire weather concerns increase over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday and Monday as an upper level system leads to strong winds.

- Rain chances begin to increase and temperatures trend downward during the latter half of the week as another storm system approaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Warm, dry, and westerly winds will persist this weekend. IR satellite imagery shows only a few scattered clouds drifting west to east in westerly flow aloft this morning. Clouds will increase as a disturbance begins to approach the Great Basin from the Pacific SW and advect higher level moisture into the area. Winds will once again increase to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon, with higher gusts in the Guadalupes. These westerly downsloping winds will keep temperatures similar to yesterday (10 to 15 degrees above average) but a few degrees warmer, in the mid 80s to mid 90s F. A dryline will remain east of the area with dew point temperatures below 35F, allowing for overnight cooling into the 50s and 60s F tonight. The aforementioned upper level disturbance over the Great Basin develops into the Central Great Plains Sunday, accompanied by a series of upper level jet streaks brushing the area and transporting higher momentum air down to the surface. As a result, southwesterly downsloping winds 35 to 45 mph, with gusts 55 mph to 70 mph, higher over western higher terrain, are forecast to develop by early afternoon Sunday and persist through the evening, increasing fire weather risk and potential for blowing dust. As such, a High Wind Watch remains in effect for the Guadalupes beginning late morning Sunday, and temperatures Sunday are forecast to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s F. Strong westerly winds continue Sunday night and maintain boundary layer mixing while inhibiting cooling of the near surface layer, while dew point temperatures increase as the dryline develops westward. This keeps lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s F. Following continued warm and windy weather early week, decreased winds, increased rain chances, and cooler temperatures are forecast into the end of the week. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Breezy to strong southwest winds persist over much of our area Sunday evening, gradually tapering down through the night as the jet of an upper level trough lingers overhead. Winds over the Guadalupe/ Delawares look to stay near High Wind criteria through at least early Monday morning. There is some disagreement regarding the exact duration of high winds over the mountains. Some models suggest winds fall below criteria by early Monday morning, then reintensify Monday afternoon. Other models suggest winds remain near to above criteria through Monday evening. Timing differences are due to exact positioning of the jet itself. This feature will begin slowly lifting northeastward Monday, resulting in decreasing winds. Regardless, a High Wind Watch is currently in effect over the Guadalupe/Delawares from late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Stay tuned for any changes as this system nears! Outside of the Guadalupes, winds are expected to be breezy Monday. A surface low over the Plains allows a weak cold front to push into our area Monday morning, resulting in highs a few degrees cooler than Sunday. Elevated winds combined with warm, dry conditions bring continued near-critical to critical fire weather conditions over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Monday afternoon. Additional fire weather products may be needed with forecast packages in the near future.

Tuesday, winds trend down further as the trough continues its track north and northeastward. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 80s to 90s again. Models indicate the trough arrives over the northern CONUS by midweek, with surface high pressure setting up over the central Plains on the back side of the trough. This sends a cold front into our area allowing for highs in the 80s to become more commonplace Wednesday. Rain chances also increase mainly over the eastern half of our region Wednesday evening as the dryline is shoved westward. Rain chances trend upward Thursday as another upper level storm system swings over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. However, details on this system remain uncertain at this time. In either case, increased cloud coverage and generally lower heights would send temperatures on a downward trend as we head toward the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in westerly flow, gusty at times. A few high clouds are expected, but forecast soundings suggest convective temps will be too high for a cu field to develop.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions again expected today across the Sacramento Foothills, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and the surrounding plains in Culberson and Eddy counties due to MinRHs below 15%, with 20ft winds near and slightly above 20 mph. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for these locations from this afternoon through this evening. However, high clouds this afternoon may help to limit grassland fire spread/growth if any fires do ignite. Critical fire weather conditions are expected over similar locations Sunday and Monday given stronger winds, persistent dry conditions, and little cloud cover. ERCs look to jump above the 75th percentile across portions of southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains, far northwest Permian Basin, and far west Texas Sunday. With no rain in sight, ERCs will continue to increase further heading into Monday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas valid for Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday will likely require further fire products. Fire weather conditions should improve by Tuesday as winds are forecast to not be as strong.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 95 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 93 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 66 93 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.