textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Temperatures remain well above normal through the early part of the week, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures start to cool slightly by the middle of the week, with low (generally 20-40%) rain chances returning to mainly eastern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The synoptic pattern features a broad upper ridge extending north across the western United States from high pressure centered over Mexico. This keeps the flow west to west-southwesterly over the short term with temperatures well above normal (to near record high) and no chance for precipitation for most of the area.

However, and this is a big however, a weak trough moving into the plains will break off a piece of Canadian air and send it south into West Texas and eastern New Mexico Monday creating big forecast bust potential. The front will become stationary in the Permian Basin where north of the front temperatures will be cool and cloudy and south of the front will be the aforementioned hot and dry conditions. The forecast challenge is determining how far south the front will move before stalling. Hi-res models are indicating that this will happen near a line from Big Spring to Andrews. It could make it slightly farther south, perhaps briefly entering into Midland/Odessa but will probably mix out during the afternoon with a late warm-up anticipated.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The front dissipates and retreats back north Tuesday bringing a quick return of near record warmth. Zonal flow aloft brings a quick hitting trough on Tuesday with a weak front on Wednesday. We also see the introduction of low precipitation chances Wednesday in the eastern Permian Basin. Do not expect any rain farther west than Midland as the best moisture should be pushed to our east. Low rain chances continue through the end of the week as a second trough digs into the intermountain west by Thursday but again, the best moisture and thus rain chances remain east. The break in the unseasonably warm temperatures comes next weekend when our next strong cold front arrives.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions and generally light winds prevail through most of the period. Southeasterly winds become a touch breezy at FST this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 83 58 87 / 10 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 55 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 49 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 45 87 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 56 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 56 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 53 88 56 91 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.