textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through late this week with near record heat possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Thursday and again late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

It's shaping up to be another hot day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 90s to low 100s (mainly in/near the river valleys) this afternoon. Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are expected over areas west of the Pecos this afternoon and early evening. The best (~40%) odds will be in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains, where a few cells have already developed. A couple of showers and storms may persist near the higher elevations though late this evening. Should any storms become strong, the primary threats will be gusty winds and small hail. Tonight's lows fall to the 70s for most locations, with 60s in the higher terrain.

Current surface obs also show a cold front oriented NE-SW across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles, stretching toward eastern New Mexico. It remains uncertain where this front will ultimately end up, but models indicate a slow progression south/southeastward, possibly reaching our northern counties by tomorrow afternoon. Outflow associated with storms behind the front may aid in a faster progression, impacting afternoon highs by a degree or two. Alternatively, the frontal boundary stalls north of our region. As it stands, temperatures tomorrow afternoon are again largely expected to reach the 90s, with triple digit heat forecast for those near and along the river valleys. Low (10-30%) rain chances are forecast over the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. The frontal boundary shall serve as the driving force for storm development in our northern portions. Low (10-30%) rain chances shift toward the eastern half of the Permian Basin tomorrow evening, with the best odds favoring our easternmost counties.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

By Friday, the weak cold front and its associated disturbance exit to the southeast, with rain chances diminishing and southerly low level winds advecting warmer temperatures. On Saturday, most locations will see temperatures in excess of 100 degrees, approaching record temperatures. As the weekend progresses, an upper level ridge is expected to emerge to the east, advecting in cooler gulf moisture, bringing temperatures gradually down to the mid to upper 90s through early next week. Additionally, the moisture advection into the area may be enough to bring some scattered showers and storms in the higher elevations and the surrounding plains west of the Pecos River.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Southeasterly winds between 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 99 74 101 / 10 10 20 0 Carlsbad 74 99 73 102 / 10 10 0 10 Dryden 75 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 98 74 100 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 89 69 92 / 10 20 10 0 Hobbs 71 97 71 100 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 63 90 63 92 / 0 30 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 98 75 99 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 75 99 76 102 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.