textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Patchy dense fog is expected this morning across portions of the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, Low Rolling Plains, and Stockton Plateau. Drive with caution if you encounter fog!

- Record warm high and low temperatures for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Christmas Night. No rain chances through early weekend.

- A shift in the atmospheric pattern late weekend into early next week delivers cooler than average temperatures, increased clouds, and precipitation chances, although specifics on precipitation amounts, timing, and type remain uncertain.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Current satellite imagery and observations show a plume of low- level moisture over portions of west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This plume of moisture will set up another foggy morning across the Permian Basin, Low Rolling Plains, far southeast New Mexico, and Stockton Plateau. The HREF has medium to high (60-90%) probabilities of dense fog (visibilities below 0.5 mile) over these areas beginning at 4 AM CST. Drive with caution if encountering fog this morning! By 9-10am CST, fog will begin to cease.

Well above normal temperatures continue today as upper-level ridging remains in place over the region. Shortwave impulses within the flow of the upper ridge will aid in the development of high clouds across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Increased cloud cover will cool high temperatures a degree or two compared with yesterday (highs in mid 70s and low 80s). Tonight, the cloud cover spreads eastward as the upper-level ridge axis moves east of the area. Return flow keeps low-level moisture across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This will provide another shot of patchy dense fog and warm overnight lows. High resolution guidance has medium to high (50-80%) confidence in dense fog forming early Christmas morning over the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, and Stockton Plateau. As of now, this event seems to be less widespread compared with what is expected this morning. This is due to stronger southwesterly winds anticipated which would mitigate fog development. Near record- breaking lows are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The near record-breaking temperature trend continues Christmas afternoon as highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s and low 80s. If the forecasted high of 80 degrees holds, this could be Midland's warmest Christmas on record. The current record holder is 78 degrees, set in 2021. Christmas night will be warm with lows staying in the mid 40s and mid 50s for most locations.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Above average temperatures before a cooldown late weekend into early next week, then moderating temperatures. Precipitation possible but amounts, timing, type, and chances still uncertain. That continues to be the forecast into next week. Christmas Night this year may be no exception to the record warmth of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Persistent, pronounced mid to upper ridging over the Southern Great Plains into Southeast US and accompanying large scale sinking motion and associated warming and west/southwest downsloping winds will continue to deliver anomalously warm temperatures. NAEFS ensembles are running at least 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal for both height of the atmospheric column and temperature, indicative of a warmer than normal air mass. Extreme Forecast Index also surges to 0.7 to 0.9 for much of the area, indicative of very unusually warm temperatures. Higher Shift of Tails over eastern parts of the forecast area where ridging is more amplified and dew point temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s F and limit overnight cooling suggest most of the record warm low temperatures may be broken there on Christmas night. Otherwise, dew point temperatures in the mid 30s F western higher terrain into Culberson County and westernmost and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, upper 30s to lower 40s F, and upper 40s to lower 50s F easternmost parts of the area will not scale with expected diurnal ranges, since hours and strength of solar angle above the horizon remain as we remain close to (but are now moving away from) winter solstice. Lows therefore settle into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range, with highs Friday once more warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s to lower 90s F Rio Grande basins - still a few degrees higher than Christmas as ridging holds and strengthens. Accordingly, not much change in lows expected Friday night compared to Christmas Night. Ridging weakens but still holds Saturday, so high temperatures decrease by a few degrees, while low temperatures again don't change much from previous night.

However, a pattern change remains in the cards. Most deterministic and ensemble models are now depicting a split flow pattern with troughing in the mid to upper tropospheric air over northern Rockies into northern Great Plains developing east, and troughing over Great Basin retrograding southwest but not completely closing off, allowing some moisture and energy to advect east. Most deterministic and ensemble models are also now showing a later cold front passage for Sunday than previous runs, and as a result highs Sunday have increased 5 to 10 degrees from previous runs. This has meant forecasts now showing highs only struggling to reach above 60F for the westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains, with lower to mid 60s F Marfa Plateau into most of Permian Basin, and upper 60s to 70s F elsewhere apart from upper 70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows near to below freezing north of Rio Grande basins and in mid 30s to lower 40s F central Presidio, Brewster Counties into Terrell County and Stockton Plateau, and lower to mid 40s F southern Rio Grande basins are only lower by a few degrees from previous runs, despite dew point temperatures forecast to fall into the teens to mid 20s F range rather than the mid 20s to lower 30s F range as previously indicated. The the still expected increase in low clouds behind the cold front limit overnight cooling despite a decreasing trend in forecast boundary layer moisture. The later passage of the cold front Sunday has also served to lower forecasted highs Monday at least 10 degrees from previous runs, with highs now struggling to reach above 50s F for much of the area apart from struggling to reach 60s F from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Accompanying temperatures this cold comes the chance for precipitation, but uncertainty on specifics remains high. Most likely spots for accumulations continue to be over the northwestern Guadalupes into Sacramento Foothills, and the window for most likely precipitation chances has now began to appear in the Sunday night to Monday afternoon time frame. We will continue to monitor trends in the forecast as this cold wave draws nearer. Lows Monday night fall even farther, into the mid 20s to lower 30s F range except for lower to mid 30s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend. If this forecast holds, freeze watches/warnings may need to be issued in later forecast shifts for lower lying regions of the Rio Grande basins and Terrell County that have not yet experienced their first freeze this winter. Highs slowly recover by 5 to 10 degrees Tuesday as ridging begins to build back over the Desert SW and the weather dries out again, but past Monday the forecast is too uncertain to communicate expected temperature ranges at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions continue until late tonight. IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS are expected by 10-11Z as fog develops at MAF, INK, and HOB. Fog is anticipated to prevail until 16Z at these terminals. There is a low (20-30%) chance in fog developing at PEQ from 12-15Z this morning. Given low confidence, FG was not implemented in the TAF, but amendments may be needed later on. By 17Z, VFR conditions are expected as the fog lifts. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 55 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 76 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 77 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 82 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 50 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 76 46 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 40 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 54 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 53 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Andrews- Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Winkler.

NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Central Lea- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.