textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Another upper-level storm system will bring medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms for most areas late Friday into Saturday.

- A few storms may become strong, especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats for the strongest storms will be quarter size hail and heavy rainfall. The flash flood threat remains very low.

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The mid to upper air pattern will settle into alternating weak ridging and stronger ridging in between troughing associated with storm systems, but overall weak ridging and dampened troughing returning in the wake of these storm systems. This keeps temperatures near to above average for mid-February. IR satellite imagery, IFR/LIFR probability grids and observations earlier this morning depicted more mist/fog southwest of the Pecos River than NBM aviation grids were indicating in previous runs, especially over the Guadalupes, Culberson County, and Marfa Plateau into the Stockton Plateau. This mist/fog is now in the process of dissipating early this afternoon as clouds continue to drift from west to east in the quasi-zonal flow aloft. However, both coarse-res and high-res model forecast soundings continue to depict residual low-level moisture characterized by dew point depressions at or below 10F to 15F and capped by drier air above that, keeping a mix of low-level and mid- level clouds around through most of the day even after the mist/fog completely dissipates. Despite winds veering from northeast/east to south/southeast as mid to upper ridging builds and the cold front that cleared the area last night redevelops northeast as a warm front this afternoon/evening, these low to mid level clouds will limit diurnal heating and combined with remnant CAA, keep highs near average and in the 60s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes and Delawares into Davis Mountains, and 70s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County. NBM highs have trended down from previous runs north of Rio Grande basin as low clouds and mist/fog have been more persistent into the late morning than models indicated and lows this morning were cooler than originally forecast. In fact, where more widespread broken cloud cover lingers over Lea County and northern Permian Basin, highs may not rise above 60 F. As winds veer to south/southeast this evening and advect warmer air into the area, lows tonight have still trended down in the NBM as moisture return is now lagging compared to earlier runs. This means lows falling into the 40s F, 30s F foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, and 50s F only for the Rio Grande basin. Considering forecast lows were warmer than observed lows this morning and the repeated pattern lately of lows only reached by sunrise rather than in the early morning before sunrise, this is not unexpected. Despite dew point depressions falling within 5F, increased winds just above the surface from a southerly low- level jet overnight might provide enough mechanical mixing to inhibit widespread mist/fog, apart from low lying regions along and near the Pecos River with lighter winds.

With building ridging and winds in the mid to lower troposphere shifting to south/southwest as a storm system off the Pacific SW develops into Baja CA and northern MX plateau, increased large scale sinking motion and adiabatic downslope compressional warming is still forecast to allow highs to rise into the mid to upper 70s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, and 80s F for portions of the Pecos River valley and along Rio Grande. Despite winds becoming more south/southwest which would normally bring in drier air from the Chihuahuan Desert, moisture trajectories off the Pacific SW and Baja CA through at least the lower to mid tropospheric depth will advect more humid air into the area, with dew point temperatures rising from the upper 30s to lower 40s F to mid 40s to mid 50s F. This increased moisture will allow mid to high level clouds to persist even as dew point depressions remain greater than 20F with dry air near the surface and in the lower troposphere. Persistent mid to upper clouds, increased dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture, and south/southwest downsloping winds continuing into Thursday evening allow lows to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s F Thursday night. While the weather remains dry with no chance of rain today and tomorrow, the increased moisture, deep layer south/southwest winds, and approach of the storm system from Baja CA/northern MX plateau will be a prelude to another rain event Friday-Saturday. With PWATs again approaching record levels and elevated instability, we may again see a chance of thunder with this precipitation, but with convection more impactful than just embedded thundershowers this time. More on the forecast ahead in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

An upper-level storm system approaches from the west on Friday bringing another shot of rain and thunderstorms across the region. The storm system will provide deep layer moisture and increased southwesterly flow aloft hinting at the potential for a few strong storms and locally heavy rainfall to occur. Rain chances begin to ramp up Friday morning into the early afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as the storm system digs across Baja California. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes numerous by late afternoon into the evening with the greatest chances (60-90%) prevalent over far southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings have noted deep layer shear (> 70 kts), weak instability (generally less than 1000 J/kg), and high PWATs (> 0.8 IN). Guidance continues to show more available potential instability in the elevated layers, pointing at a hail threat for the strongest storms. Hi-res and long term guidance have been showing PWATs near and above the daily climatological maximum. These high PWATs indicate the threat of heavy rainfall. As of now, the flash flood threat remains very low given fast storm motions. Models have been trending upward on surface and most unstable CAPE; this will be something to monitor heading into Friday. If this trend continues upward, especially with surface instability, a wind threat for the strongest storms may come into play as another hazard. The peak timeframe for a few strong storms will be late afternoon through evening across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the storm system advances further east into southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This will push much of the shower and thunderstorm activity east of the forecast area. A few rain showers may linger across the region, especially through the morning hours. Warmer than normal lows in the 40s to mid 50s are expected due to overcast skies prevalent throughout the night and morning. A Pacific front is forecast to move through the region Saturday morning. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds are expected behind the front through early Saturday evening. Blowing dust concerns remain very low due to saturated soils from the expected rain on Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s for most locations. By Sunday, upper- level ridging begins to build in from the west as the upper-level storm system pushes into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern will promote dry conditions and spring-like temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s heading into next week.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a few high clouds. Clouds will increase substantially after dark Thursday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 43 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 30 Carlsbad 42 74 50 68 / 0 0 0 60 Dryden 49 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 48 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 44 66 53 62 / 0 0 0 60 Hobbs 42 74 48 69 / 0 0 0 60 Marfa 38 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 45 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 40 Odessa 46 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 40 Wink 43 75 50 73 / 0 0 0 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.