textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs pushing up to 115 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

An expansive upper-level ridge remains anchored across the southern U.S. maintaining a regime of well-above-normal temperatures across the region. As the ridge axis shifts eastward through the weekend, a plume of mid-level moisture will rotate around its western periphery, helping maintain low-end chances for diurnal convection, primarily along the higher terrain.

The main forecast concern in the short term remains the dangerous heat. 850mb temperatures are once again progged to reach in the 28C- 32C range, translating to afternoon highs today well into the triple digits. Highs up to 105 are possible for most locations outside of the mountains. Temperatures could reach 115 along the Rio Grande where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Low-level moisture and intense heating will lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms by afternoon, mainly across the mountains. Any of these storms will be capable of producing localized downburst winds exceeding 50 mph given the high LCLs and inverted-V soundings.

Overnight lows will stay elevated, remaining the mid-to-upper 70s, providing little relief from the daytime heat. Little if anything changes Sunday, outside of a couple of degrees shaved off the daytime highs.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Global models indicate a lowering of mid-level heights over our area early to midweek as the upper ridge reorients and builds over the eastern U.S. This should allow a break from the current heat wave with highs progged to drop back toward normal (low to mid 90s) for late June. Moisture quality improves as the ridge shifts, with precipitable water (PWAT) values climbing toward 1.5" (near the 75th percentile for June). Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons, particularly over the higher terrain and adjacent plains.

The upper ridge builds back over the area late week bringing a return to triple digits and drier conditions just in time for the 4th of July.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR will prevail through the period. Gusty south winds will develop later this morning and persist into the evening for most terminals. Isolated TS will develop in the higher terrain and move east. Confidence in timing and location is low so will not include just yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 75 102 75 / 10 10 20 10 Carlsbad 104 74 103 74 / 10 20 20 20 Dryden 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 102 74 101 74 / 10 10 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 93 71 92 71 / 0 20 20 20 Hobbs 102 72 101 71 / 20 20 20 20 Marfa 95 64 93 63 / 20 20 30 40 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 100 75 / 10 20 20 20 Odessa 101 75 100 75 / 20 20 20 20 Wink 104 75 103 75 / 20 20 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.