textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions continue over southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas through this evening and expected again Tuesday afternoon. - Increased rain chances Wednesday through Friday nearly areawide. Monitoring threat for localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Current satellite imagery and 17Z 500mb RAP analysis shows southwesterly flow aloft over the region accompanied by a 60kt jet across New Mexico. At the surface, a low pressure system continues to move northeast towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. As a result, breezy westerly winds and more warmer than normal temperatures (80s to low 90s regionwide) are expected. Breezy winds coinciding with very dry conditions yield near-critical fire weather concerns across southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains, and the eastern Culberson County Plains during the afternoon. Outdoor burning of any kind is discouraged over these areas. Tonight, high cloud cover develops across much of the region. This will keep warm low temperatures in the 60s to low 70s over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. Meanwhile, lows will range in the 50s across southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains.

Warmer and similar windy conditions are in store tomorrow. The dryline stays further east supplying enhanced mixing across the region. A low-level thermal ridge also develops across portions of west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This brings near-critical fire weather conditions once again across portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most locations, with the exception of some spots along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley in the upper 90s to low 100s. Tuesday night, a cold front approaches from the north which looks to provide cooler temperatures for areas north of Interstate 10 Wednesday afternoon. See the long term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Wednesday sees the pattern begin to shift as an upper level low begins to approach from the west. A cold front is moved through the area and northerly to northeasterly flow at the surface brings in cooler air and some moisture from the east. Cloud cover and CAA keep highs in the 80s for many with 90s remaining near and south of I-10. Medium to long range guidance continue to show medium to high (40- 70%) rain chances mainly across the Permian Basin and into SE NM. Rain chances decrease further to the south and west of the Pecos River Valley. Similar to the last few systems that have brought some measurable precipitation to the region, ensembles continue to show a range of PWAT values near the daily record for Thursday and Friday between an inch to 1.3".

While PoPs are high and generally widespread, rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be scattered and intermittent in nature. Light to moderate rain will mainly be seen with brief bouts of heavy rain in more organized convection. The threat for localized flash flooding will need to be monitored. Rain amounts, however, remain far more uncertain as it will depend on where the best forcing ends up based on the track of the upper low moving into the area. Expect generally higher amounts across the Permian Basin and SE NM, with diminishing amounts as you move further south and west of the Pecos River Valley. Overall rain chances decrease by late Friday.

Temperatures during the latter part of the week gradually fall well below normal for late April and early May. By Friday, highs in the 60s will be seen for most with 70s and 80s near the Rio Grande. Lows dip into the 40s nearly areawide Saturday morning with 60s for highs once again that afternoon. Warmth begins to return on Sunday with highs in the 70s.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Following light and variable winds for terminals near the Pecos River on the Upper Trans Pecos from the beginning of the period into 08Z-11Z this morning, west southwest winds at terminals develop 14Z-17Z and increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and above for terminals on the SE NM plains into Permian Basin this afternoon. Winds then decrease 00Z-03Z this evening but remain westerly into end of period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions are on track this afternoon as winds increase with gusts to around 30 mph across portions of SE NM. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s combine with the breezy conditions and critical RHs (<15%). A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect for this afternoon for those conditions. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon with slightly lower minimum RHs and afternoon highs. For this, another RFD will likely be needed. Beyond Tuesday, an upper level low approaches on Wednesday and moves overhead by Friday bringing cooler and wetter conditions nearly areawide. Wetting rains will be possible Wednesday night through Friday evening along with overall higher RHs and recoveries that should, in the near term, improve the fuel landscape through this coming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 95 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 30 Carlsbad 91 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 99 72 96 66 / 0 10 10 40 Fort Stockton 96 67 92 63 / 0 0 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 80 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 90 58 83 53 / 0 0 0 30 Marfa 87 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 93 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 30 Odessa 92 63 85 59 / 0 0 0 30 Wink 94 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Martin-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.