textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- A risk of significant flooding in heavy showers/storms persists across parts of the area through this evening. However, not everyone will see rainfall.

- Rain chances expand farther west into western higher terrain this weekend.

- Rain chances decrease early next week, becoming confined to the western higher terrain as afternoon temperatures begin a warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Satellite shows a mid level low centered over West Texas with ample available moisture, particularly along to the east of the CWA border. This low will be slow to move and be the catalyst for another round of scattered showers and storms for much of the region. Areas to the north and west of the Permian Basin and Davis Mountains will see generally lower (10-40%) precipitation chances through this afternoon and into tonight. Efficient rainfall producing storms keep up the threat for flash flooding, thus will keep the inherited Flood Watch as is for this forecast package. Much like the last few days, hi-resolution models disagree on location of much of today's expected convection, but there is better agreement across the eastern portions of the CWA where lift will be better.

Rain coverage will increase through the morning, particularly after sunrise. Severe storm threat will be low, but a storm or two may become strong with gusty winds, small hail, and lightning. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding will be the main threat, especially for locations that have received appreciable amounts of rain over the past few days. Rain amounts will vary widely as some areas will see less than an inch today while isolated spots may see 1-2 inches. Highs reach into the 80s today with lows dipping back into the 60s tonight.

Lulls in precipitation will be seen tonight and part of the morning on Saturday before rain chances increase. The aforementioned low moves further west bringing the highest rain chances over the higher elevations. Once again, flooding will be the main concern with severe weather to not be likely.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The mid level low responsible for recent rainfall shifts westward this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, upper ridging begins to overspread the Intermountain West and Great Plains. As subsidence increases, rain chances gradually taper down, largely dropping off by Tuesday evening. Saturday evening, rain chances are progged to range from 20-60% across the region (odds increasing with westward extent). Sunday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers/storms are again forecast areawide, with the best probabilities generally west of the Pecos River. By Monday afternoon, 20-60% rain chances look to primarily be confined to areas near and west of the Pecos River Valley (best odds over the higher terrain). Rain chances continue a downward trend Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles suggest PWAT values between 1-2" across our region through Tuesday evening. Given some of areas have already seen several rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding may continue to be of concern during occasions of heavy rainfall. Drier conditions return Wednesday as the upper ridge hovers over the southern Plains.

With the gradual return of upper ridging over our region, temperatures respond in the form of a warming trend. Highs Sunday afternoon look to reach the upper 80s (mainly in the higher elevations and adjacent areas) to low 90s. Highs in the 90s slowly gain more prominence each day through Wednesday. Triple digit highs are forecast to return near and along both the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys by Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows through the period shall range in the 60s to 70s, with 70s becoming more dominant as we head through the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

MVFR CIGs have developed in a few locations and will fill in during the morning. Clouds should lift and scatter some after sunrise. Scattered SHRA with occasional TS expected through the day once again with winds remaining light outside of nearby convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 69 90 69 / 60 10 40 20 Carlsbad 92 70 95 69 / 20 20 50 40 Dryden 90 71 93 71 / 40 10 30 20 Fort Stockton 89 69 92 68 / 50 10 60 40 Guadalupe Pass 85 66 86 65 / 40 20 70 50 Hobbs 88 66 91 66 / 30 40 50 40 Marfa 84 59 86 58 / 50 20 70 50 Midland Intl Airport 86 69 90 69 / 40 20 40 30 Odessa 86 69 90 69 / 40 10 40 40 Wink 90 69 93 69 / 40 20 50 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Southern Lea.