textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 431 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are forecast mainly west of the Pecos River Thursday afternoon.

- Rain chances return Friday and through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday into Sunday. Specifics to be ironed out over the coming days!

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Current mesoanalysis shows broad ridging set up just west of our area this morning. The influence of the ridge allows temperatures to jump back into the upper 70s and low 80s today across west Texas and southeast New Mexico (near-normal for this time of year). Meanwhile, persistent southeasterly to southerly winds bring low-level moisture back into the region. This increasing moisture helps keep lows in the 50s for most locations tonight (mid-to-upper 40s in typical cool spots, low 60s along the Rio Grande and in the Lower Trans-Pecos). By Thursday afternoon, another shortwave disturbance moves across the region. This causes low-to-medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) to once again develop, mainly in and around the higher terrain west of the Pecos (particularly the Davis Mountains). Instability will be marginal (MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg), as well as 0- 6 km shear (generally between 15-25 kts, up to 30 kts later that evening). For the most part, this will largely limit the severe threat. That being said, a couple of thunderstorms could briefly become strong to marginally severe Thursday afternoon, producing isolated gusty winds and hail. By Thursday evening and overnight, any convection from the afternoon diminishes. Highs Thursday top out 1-4 degrees warmer than today, and lows once again fall only into the 50s and low 60s across the area.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Troughing develops to the west to begin the Long Term period, and west Texas and southeast New Mexico end up underneath southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, A dryline begins to sharpen up over western portions of our area. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase Friday afternoon and evening in southeast New Mexico and in the higher terrain west of the Pecos out ahead of a leading shortwave trough. Similar to Thursday, the severe weather threat Friday looks low overall, mainly due to low 0-6 km shear (only in the 10-20 kt range). That being said, sufficient instability will exist to allow a couple of storms to briefly become strong. Isolated to widely scattered activity persists Friday night and perhaps into Saturday morning as well.

By Saturday, the dryline will extend from southeast New Mexico down towards the Rio Grande. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected off this dryline Saturday afternoon. 0-6 km shear will be better this day (25-35 kts), and instability will mainly be between 750-1500 J/kg through Sunday morning. As a result, a few thunderstorms may become severe. Atmospheric moisture will also be well-above normal during this timeframe (PWATs will be exceeding the 90th percentile). Therefore, flash flooding will be yet another concern. There are still plenty of details that need to be refined, including the main severe hazards (right now it looks like mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat), thunderstorm coverage (currently looks like storms will be scattered then become more numerous as they move east), and exact timing/location. In any case, by Sunday morning the best thunderstorm chances (and therefore the main threat for severe weather) shift towards far eastern portions of the area and beyond our region. Only low rain chances (10-30%) are maintained for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos after Sunday morning and through the rest of the extended. Otherwise, temperatures remain near-to-above normal.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 431 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Return flow will continue next 24 hours. Overnight, models develop a tongue of stratus up the Pecos Rvr Valley and into the Permian Basin, and this looks to affect KMAF w/MVFR/IFR cigs for a few hours Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field Thursday afternoon, w/bases ~ 4.5 - 7 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 55 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 85 54 86 / 0 10 10 20 Dryden 59 81 60 82 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 57 84 58 83 / 0 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 54 78 54 77 / 0 10 10 20 Hobbs 50 82 54 82 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 45 77 46 79 / 0 30 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 56 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 56 80 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 55 83 58 83 / 0 10 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.