textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 323 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Breezy conditions will develop across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico today and Friday. A brief period of high winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail through at least the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

An upper-level ridge continues to build across southeast New Mexico and west Texas well in advance of an upper-level storm system centered off the California coast early this morning. Abundant high level cloud cover is streaming into much of our forecast area ahead of this system early this morning but dry weather conditions otherwise prevail. The Midland International Air and Space Port officially ended the year with only 7.41" of recorded precipitation, which makes 2025 the 6th driest year on record.

The upper-level ridge will shift to the east of our region and weaken today and will be replaced by a more zonal flow pattern aloft. A weak shortwave impulse embedded within the westerly flow pattern will translate across our region today and will bring an enhancement in moisture, mainly in the form of thickening mid/high level cloud cover. There may be enough boundary layer moisture and weak ascent to support the development of a few very light rain showers west of the Pecos River this morning into early this afternoon. Surface low pressure will deepen over the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon with the surface trough axis trailing through much of our forecast area. The increasing pressure gradient will result in breezy westerly winds over much of our forecast area today. Increasing mid level winds with the passing shortwave and a weak mountain wave signature will result in a brief period of high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains late this morning into early this evening. We have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning there for potential sustained speeds of 35-45 mph with some gusts up to 60-65 mph. The shortwave trough passes to our east tonight and we expect clearing skies in the wake of this feature. Another shortwave trough arrives within W-NW flow aloft on Friday. No moisture will be associated with this feature, but there is potential for another round of increased wind speeds approaching high wind criteria in the Guadalupe Mountains. Later shifts will assess the need for another High Wind Warning. The surface gradient also increases over much of the CWA again Friday as another surface low takes shape over the Texas panhandle. Another breezy day can be expected over much of the region on Friday with W-NW winds up to 20-30 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures trend about 10-15 degrees above normal across the area today and Friday with readings in the 70s over much of the area except for 60s in the higher elevation areas and in the lower 80s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Lows tonight will be mild for early January with readings in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A weak cold front will move into our area Friday night into early Saturday morning but quickly becomes diffuse by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday may be about 3-5 degrees cooler than Friday behind the front, but still above normal. Upper-level ridging will build over our forecast area late this weekend and persist into Monday. The flow aloft becomes more southwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next trough moving into the Desert Southwest. This next system could bring increased moisture/lift into our area next Wednesday or Wednesday night depending on the timing of this system, but confidence in meaningful rain chances is very low at this time. Temperatures will remain about 10-15 degrees above normal late this weekend into the early to middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR continues as westerly winds become gusty (25-30 kts) by afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 51 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 68 49 71 40 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 78 53 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 76 55 76 47 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 60 45 61 40 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 70 45 71 42 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 68 39 66 34 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 71 51 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 70 51 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 49 74 42 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.