textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Flash flood risk increases tonight, with highest chance of flash flooding from the Big Bend through the northern Permian Basin on Wednesday and Thursday evening.

- Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail possible during the afternoon and evening today and Wednesday.

- Strong (35 mph or greater) winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes Friday morning-Friday afternoon.

- Colder temperatures (highs below 70F, lows below 60F) for much of the area by Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An active weather pattern is underway as 500mb RAP analysis currently shows an upper level ridge centered along the Texas coast. Meanwhile, an upper level low is positioned near the Great Basin. Wedged between these two upper level features, southwesterly flow aloft is drawing moisture from Hurricane Simon toward our area. A few showers and storms have developed over SE NM and portions of far west Texas, driven by convergence along a surface trough that extends from the western Texas Panhandle down into the western fringes of our area. Today into tomorrow, the upper level low will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. As this system approaches, disturbances and increased southwesterly flow aloft will provide lift and increasing moisture, respectively. Rain chances into this afternoon will be low (10-30%) over the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend, where isolated showers/storms look to develop along a dryline. The best odds will favor the Trans Pecos this afternoon. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, forcing begins to increase as the trough's jet core draws nearer. Rain chances increase areawide, ranging from 20-70%. The highest (50- 70%) rain chances shall focus east of the aforementioned dryline extending from the Panhandle down near the TX/NM border and toward the Presidio Valley. This includes portions of SE NM, the Permian Basin, much of the Trans Pecos, the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend. A couple of storms will be strong to severe this afternoon and evening, capable of producing heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and small hail. This evidenced by PWAT values between 1.25-1.9" (>90th percentile of climatology), CAPE values of 1100-2000 J/kg, bulk shear of 25-35 kts, and mid level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km. Through the night, the severe weather threat gives way to more of a flash flood threat, as rounds of occasionally heavy rainfall head from southwest to northeast across our region. This will be especially hazardous for nighttime travel, given reduced visibility and potentially flooded roads. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon are forecasts to top out in the 90s for most of the area, with 80s expected in and near the higher terrain and portions of SE NM. A few locations within the Big Bend along the Rio Grande are expected to climb into the triple digits. Overnight lows fall to the 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday, forcing for ascent continues to increase as the upper trough translates over the Rockies and its jet core engulfs much of New Mexico. At the surface, today's dryline remains relatively stationary, offset slightly west of the same areas previously o mentioned. Rain chances through the day Wednesday again range from 20-70% over much of the region, with the exception of some of our westernmost counties. The best (40-70%) chances overlay the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend, correlating to scattered to numerous showers/storms. Provided similar convective parameters as today, a few storms Wednesday will be strong to severe, posing a threat for heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and small hail. The potential for severe storms shall occur on a more isolated scale both today and Wednesday. However, in anticipation of several rounds of rainfall, some occasionally heavy, instances of flash flooding looks to be the primary hazard between the two days. This will especially be the case for urban and low lying areas and places where soils become saturated. As such, keep posted for any watches and warnings issued for your area and have a plan that can be readily enacted! Otherwise, cloudy/rainy conditions along with lowering heights result in afternoon highs mainly in the 80s Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

By Wednesday evening, the large upper low moving across the Rockies and approaches just to the north of our area. Guidance continues to show ample moisture areawide and with improving upper level support, will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms. Wednesday night through Thursday and into early Friday will see medium to high (40-80%) chances stretching from Big Bend northward into the Permian Basin. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will occur during that Wednesday to early Friday timeframe. Given the tropical origin of the airmass, any convection will be efficient at producing rain and bring about a threat for flash flooding each day. Rain amounts will vary greatly as it will be dependent on where storms develop during each round. At any rate, urban, low lying areas, and the rougher terrain portions of West Texas will be at significant risk for flash flooding even when it may not be actively raining in that particular location. There will be breaks in the rain between rounds of precipitation each day, but not long enough breaks for rain to soak in at all locations.

A cold front is pushed through the region on Thursday and keeps temperatures in the 70s for most and brings lows into the 50s that evening. Continuing cloud cover and another round of rain on Friday will keep highs near 60F. Strong post frontal winds will be seen across the higher elevations late Thursday and into Friday. Into the weekend, below normal temperatures hold on, but a gradual warmup is expected by early next week. Long range guidance agrees on a slight drying out this coming weekend, but keep low (10-30%) rain chances over the western portions of the CWA.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR continues through this morning. PROB30s in place for tomorrow afternoon for all but CNM/HOB as TS develop and move from west to east across the region. Outside of any convection, mainly light southerly to southwesterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 94 71 88 66 / 10 50 60 90 Carlsbad 91 66 87 62 / 0 30 10 20 Dryden 93 73 91 71 / 10 20 30 60 Fort Stockton 94 69 88 66 / 30 40 60 80 Guadalupe Pass 79 62 77 59 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 89 65 80 61 / 10 60 40 50 Marfa 87 62 81 59 / 10 70 40 70 Midland Intl Airport 92 70 85 66 / 10 60 60 80 Odessa 92 70 84 66 / 20 60 50 80 Wink 93 70 85 66 / 20 50 40 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.