textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas today and Monday as an upper- level system leads to strong winds and persistent dry conditions.

- Breezy conditions expected to continue through at least Monday, with stronger winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.

- Rain chances begin to increase and temperatures trend downward during the latter half of the week as another storm system approaches.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mix of sun and clouds and continued warm weather with strong winds, especially over the Guadalupes and Delawares into Eddy County Plains today through tomorrow. A High Wind Warning is in effect beginning this afternoon for the Guadalupes, expanding into Culberson County and the Eddy County Plains, and a Wind Advisory is also in effect this afternoon through this evening for western Culberson County and northern and central Lea County through this evening. Sustained winds above 30 to 35 mph and gusts 45 to 65 mph, with higher winds sustained at higher elevations, are forecast as an upper level jet brushes northwest parts of the area and mixes down higher winds form aloft. Highs rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s F once again amidst these downsloping winds, with dew point temperatures largely remaining below 35F as the forecast area continues to be west of a dryline off to the east. Highs 10 to 15 degrees above average, strong downsloping winds, and low RH will maintain fire weather risk, with a Red Flag Warning for Southeast New Mexico and portion of West Texas remaining in effect this afternoon through evening (see Fire Weather Discussion). In addition to increased fire risk, there is the potential for blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions on roads and mountain passes. Tonight, the dryline may retrograde into eastern parts of the area, but most of the area will still remain west of the dryline and a diurnal spread of 20 to 25 degrees will be retained due to lower boundary layer moisture. However, due to continued downsloping winds, gusty at times, limiting overnight cooling, lows in the 50s to mid to upper 60s F are forecast. Tomorrow, strong southwest winds 30 to 35 mph with higher gusts will persist over the Guadalupes, maintaining a High Wind Warning through tomorrow evening and near critical fire weather conditions, and prompting another Fire Weather Watch for Southeast New Mexico, Culberson County, and northwest Permian Basin from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening. However, winds will decrease throughout the day tomorrow as the upper level jet develops off to the northeast. Additionally, a weak cold front pushing in behind the upper level jet will drop highs over western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin a few degrees. Lows tomorrow night still fall into the 50s and mid to upper 60s F while the dryline retrogrades west and advects more humid air over eastern parts of the area. We will have to wait until mid-week for cooler and less windy weather, and until late week before more significant rain chances. More on that in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Breezy to windy conditions over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin subside shortly after sunset Monday evening. A weak cold front looks to become diffuse within the northern portions of our region Monday night. Temperatures behind the front fall into the 50s in our northernmost counties, while lows everywhere else generally cool into the 60s. Winds remain calmer overall Tuesday as the jet core of an upper level trough slowly lifts northeastward. Westerly downsloping winds push Tuesday's highs into the upper 80s (mainly in the higher terrain) and 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, surface high pressure develops over the central Great Plains, on the back side of the upper trough. This sends a cold front down across the Plains and into our region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs in the 80s become more commonplace within the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures reach the 90s in the southern half of our region. With the surface high drifting eastward Wednesday afternoon, surface winds become easterly and southeasterly. Moisture advection and upslope flow results in low (10-30%) rain chances over the eastern portions of the region Wednesday evening.

Rain chances increase areawide Thursday and Friday as another upper level storm system swings over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Although there currently exists much uncertainty with this next system, long-range guidance is starting to suggest a potential for heavy rainfall over our eastern portions, especially in the Permian Basin. These indicate PWATs anywhere between 1-2" over the eastern half of our region Thursday afternoon and evening, coinciding with better lift from the approaching system. However, it's important to note that this is highly dependent on storm track and actual available moisture. Rain chances begin to taper down Friday afternoon, largely diminishing by the evening as this system departs to our northeast. Regardless of rainfall, lower heights and cloudy skies result in a cooling trend to end the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Southwest winds at terminals 10 to 15 knots increase to 15 to 25 knots 15Z-20Z for terminals on the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos, and up to 25 to 35 knots for terminals on the Eddy County Plains into Lea County and western Permian Basin. Winds continue to gust to and above 15 knots after 00Z-03Z for terminals on the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, and to and above 25 knots for terminals on the SE NM plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions are expected over southeast New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, the higher terrain in west Texas and surrounding areas today and Monday. Strong southwesterly winds, persistent dry conditions, and higher ERCs (70th-89th percentile) have prompted a Red Flag Warning for these areas valid this afternoon through this evening. Although winds look to be slightly weaker Monday compared to today, other parameters shall be relatively similar. As such, another Red Flag Warning will likely be issued for Monday as well. To avoid confusion, only a Fire Weather Watch has been issued over similar locations for Monday. Fire weather conditions should improve by Tuesday as winds are forecast to trend downward and MinRHs upward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 93 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 97 70 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 97 63 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 83 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 91 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 87 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 64 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 94 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 62 92 60 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Monday for Eastern Culberson.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Monday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for Eddy County Plains.

Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Northern Lea.