textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026 - 15% to 35% chance of showers/storms Sunday afternoon through evening for the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County as well as the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos. A few storms may be strong, with damaging winds, hail, and brief heavy rainfall.

- Cooler behind a cold front early week, followed by unseasonably warm temperatures through most of next week, with rain chances returning by the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Forecast remains on track for a warm start to the weekend and slightly cooler end to the weekend behind a cold front Sunday. VIS/IR satellite imagery depicts little in the way of any active weather, and for most of today apart from a stray shower/storm, we can expect that to continue. Highs 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and in the upper 80s to lower 90s F will be widespread, with a dryline situated over the north-central Permian Basin into Big Bend and dew point temperatures below 60F except for Terrell County keeping Heat Risk low. Lows tonight fall into the mid 50s to upper 60s F range as the dryline retrogrades west and allows for more humid air over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, however, despite calm winds and high relative humidity, no mist/fog formation is indicated for those regions at this time. Tomorrow, a cold front currently located over the Northern into Central Great Plains will develop down through the area. General timing of the frontal passage per wind shift from southerly to northerly appears to be Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon. The passage of the cold front will mean locations behind the front only have highs rising into the upper 70s to mid 80s F, whereas ahead of the cold front, highs apart from the western terrain rise into the 90s F and above for the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County. With passage of the cold front increasing boundary layer moisture and overrunning, a low (20% to 35%) chance of showers/storms develops Sunday afternoon through evening over northern eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, with a lower (around 15% to 30%) chance of showers/storms over western higher terrain. General storm motion per high-res CAMs is expected to be northwest to southeast. SPC has easternmost parts of the forecast area in a MRGL to SLGT risk, with hail and damaging winds the main risks in any storms, and the threat remaining greater east of the forecast area. Due to the expected quick moving and isolated coverage of storms, widespread flooding is not expected, with rainfall likely remaining only a few tenths of an inch where rain does fall. Lows Sunday night fall into the 50s to lower 60s F for much of the area as CAA behind the cold front persists. Cooler temperatures will be short-lived however. See the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Residual cooler air behind the cold front late weekend persists into Monday, before mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion builds in from the west and southwest. Monday might end up the coolest day of the short and long term, as highs in the mid 70s to 80s F and lows in the 50s to lower 60s F prevail for one more day amidst dew point temperatures remaining largely in the 40s and 50s F. Dew point temperatures in this range persist through next week preventing extremely dry conditions from accompanying the returning hot temperatures. By Tuesday, highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s F and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s F return, followed by highs and lows a few degrees warmer Wednesday, then highs in the 90s to lower 100s F and lows in the 60s to lower 70s F apart from upper 50s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau through next weekend. Due to the strength of the ridging, only stray afternoon/evening rain chances are indicated, with highest chances over the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos from heating of elevated terrain. At this time, we do not see the potential for extreme heat despite temperatures more similar to early July than early to mid May forecast, but we will continue to monitor the potential for hazardous heat following this weekend's cold front. Rain chances will again increase at the end of the week, but exact details regarding any shower/storm activity at the end of next week remain unclear at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Absent any frontal BLDU, VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Latest NAM puts fropa at KCNM as early as 08Z tonight, and clearing KMAF/KFST around 17Z. A few high clouds are expected. Forecast soundings develop a high-based cu field Sunday afternoon, w/bases ~ 8-14 kft AGL. Convection is possible Sunday, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 67 90 57 80 / 0 40 10 0 Carlsbad 63 87 56 83 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 65 98 63 84 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Stockton 65 96 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 81 56 75 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 61 82 51 80 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 52 91 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 66 91 58 81 / 0 20 0 0 Odessa 66 91 58 80 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 64 91 57 82 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.