textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening, mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers/storms are ongoing across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, mainly west of the Pecos River. Most of this activity looks to diminish by sunrise. The upper low responsible for our unsettled weather currently resides near our northern counties. Ensembles show this feature slowly drifting southwestward through the Short Term period, with an upper level ridge beginning to build in its place. Before the ridge takes hold, lift associated with the upper low and a surface trough near our westernmost counties will promote additional shower/storm development today into Monday. Today, coverage looks to be isolated over the eastern half of our area (rain chances between 10-30%). Meanwhile, rain chances range between 40-60% over the western half of the region, with the best chances favoring the higher terrain. Isolated to scattered rainfall will be possible west of the Pecos River through the overnight hours. Monday, 20-50% rain chances largely become confined to areas near and west of the Pecos, with the best coverage again remaining in the vicinity of the higher terrain. Given PWAT values between 1-2" through Monday, and the fact that many locations are already saturated from previous rainfall, the potential for flash flooding remains a concern worthy of monitoring. Aside from heavy rainfall, the strongest storms may also produce gusty winds.

Cloud coverage, rainfall, and the presence of moisture overall should help keep highs this afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s. Tonight, temperatures fall to the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures warm a few degrees further Monday, as highs in the 90s become more prominent.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Daytime convection from Monday will gradually taper off heading into that night or at least be confined to the western edge of the CWA as upper level ridging will gradually be taking hold over the Central US. A return to summer will be seen through the rest of the coming week. Temperatures areawide move a few degrees higher each day moving from the low to mid 90s and into the upper 90s to low 100s by Thursday and Friday of this week. Rain chances stay to the west for Tuesday and Wednesday, but the pattern stays dry for much of the region through at least Friday. Overnight lows also move up slowly over the next several days with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in many spots.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers/storms are ongoing across portions of the region, primarily in the vicinity of PEQ and MAF. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Reductions to visibility due to heavy rainfall and gusty/erratic winds may accompany the strongest storms that develop. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 90 70 93 71 / 30 10 10 0 Carlsbad 92 70 92 71 / 40 20 30 10 Dryden 93 73 94 72 / 30 20 20 0 Fort Stockton 90 69 90 70 / 40 30 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 82 65 82 66 / 60 30 40 20 Hobbs 89 66 90 68 / 30 20 10 10 Marfa 83 60 83 60 / 50 40 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 89 70 91 71 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 89 70 90 71 / 30 10 10 0 Wink 91 70 92 71 / 40 20 30 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.