textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures continue through mid-week.

- Dry and relatively warm weather with light southerly winds Thursday, before breezy northeast winds and hazardous cold and winter weather develop Friday and continue through the weekend.

- Highest precipitation chances Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Precipitation type, timing, and amounts still uncertain at this time, however, highest impacts from freezing rain are likely over east and southeast Permian Basin during the Friday night to Saturday night time period, with sleet and snow mixing in also possible.

- Temperatures slowly warm Sunday into next week, but remain below normal with lows below freezing for most of the area until at least the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 120 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Light south to southwesterly winds are being observed across the area this afternoon. This will cause slight warm air advection keeping lows tonight a few degrees higher than this morning though most locations in the basin and southeastern New Mexico will still be at or below freezing.

An upper trough moves out of the Rockies and pushes a cold front through early tomorrow morning, though it will be a "cold" front only by the strict meteorological definition. The airmass behind the front is highly modified and will actually be warmer than the air ahead of it so highs tomorrow will be warmer than today despite the passage. Lows tomorrow night will be much like tonight dropping at or below freezing north of I-10, warmer to the south.

Hennig

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 120 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

One day of dry and relatively warm weather before hazardous cold and winter weather develops Friday and continues through the weekend. Deterministic and ensemble models are consistent in showing quasi- zonal to northwesterly flow on the backside of extensive troughing centered over the Hudson Bay transitioning to southwesterly with trajectories off the Pacific Coast rather than the interior Rockies and Great Basin. This will occur as a mid to upper disturbance near central CA is forecast to develop southeast and then east across the lower Desert SW and northern MX. The calm before the storm is expected Thursday, when highs are forecast to rise into the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, and 70s F Rio Grande basins and Terrell County into the Stockton Plateau, amidst light southerly winds. With mostly cloudy skies, continued light southerly winds, and dew point temperatures ranging from the 20s F for western higher terrain to mid 30s to mid 40s F southern and eastern parts of the forecast area downwind of the Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains - lows are expected to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s F southernmost Rio Grande basins, mid 30s to mid 40s F north of Rio Grande basins into southeast Permian Basin and Culberson County, lower to mid 30s F basins of Culberson County, Eddy into most of Lea Counties as well as Upper Trans Pecos into northeast Permian Basin, and near to below freezing only over northernmost Lea County and northwest Permian Basin. These lows will be 5F to 10F warmer than Wednesday night and courtesy of persistent southeast winds advecting in more moisture at low levels.

These warm temperatures are not expected to last. Models continue to trend earlier in the day Friday for the passage of a strong Arctic cold front. Previously models were showing a passage in the evening hours, but are now showing a passage in the morning to afternoon. The timing of the passage of this cold front will greatly affect precipitation type, timing, and accumulations for the area. With the strong cold front surging south through the area Friday, temperatures will be dropping throughout the day. Higher 75th percentile max Ts Friday morning through evening in ensembles are indicating anywhere from 50s to 60s F Rio Grande basins to 30s and 40s F northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin as well as 40s to 50s F in the transition zone, with lower percentile 25th ensembles showing max Ts only 40s to 50s F Rio Grande basins, 20s and 30s F Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, and 30s to 40s F in the transition zone. This gives an idea of the surface temperatures that could occur, as forecasts ultimately depend on strength and timing of cold front that is better resolved closer to the time of the event, not days out. Regardless of surface temperatures, deterministic models are showing a lag in below freezing temperatures developing farther aloft: WAA in overrunning east-southeast winds at 850 mb where air remains above freezing until Saturday morning-afternoon, and below freezing 700 mb temperatures associated with the cold air of the upper disturbance only arriving over much of the area Saturday afternoon-evening. This lag supports a risk of freezing rain and sleet enough to cause hazardous impacts on roads and power outages, especially in and north of the transition zone of highest meridional temperature gradient Saturday. Due to this warm nose aloft, weather grids still show precipitation beginning as rain for most of the area, with freezing precipitation over northern SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin and then most of the area north of Rio Grande basins Saturday. Lows Friday night in ensembles fall into the 20s and 30s F north of Rio Grande basins, 30s and 40s F Rio Grande basins, with NBM showing lows in the teens northern Lea County into northern Permian Basin.

Northeast winds, breezy at times, low cloud cover, and dew point temperatures ranging from the 20s to 30s F will result in a brisk start to Saturday as precipitation persists. Highest chance of precipitation is from Friday night to Saturday afternoon, and by Saturday morning, freezing precipitation is likely for most of the area north of I-20, with freezing rain and rain showers south of I-20, and a chance of cold rain showers for the Rio Grande basins. Despite the prolonged duration of below average temperatures leading up to the event before the quick warmup Thursday, a persistent warm nose aloft are is still yielding a probability for freezing rain and sleet. The highest probability of freezing rain is still over the east and southeast Permian Basin, but probability of ice has increased in most recent runs for Marfa Plateau and points north and northeast of Marfa Plateau/southwest of southern Permian Basin Stockton Plateau. Most recent runs even indicate some ice accumulation into the Rio Grande basins and Terrell County which was not present in previous runs, and tracks with a recent downward trend in temperatures in the NBM. Most recent runs also are showing higher amounts of snowfall over northern Lea County and northern Permian Basin, but as with any ice or sleet, any accumulations or chance of accumulations are uncertain at this range. Highs Saturday with CAA, low cloud cover, and freezing precipitation and cold rain showers over much of the area will mean temperatures likely staying in the 20s and 30s F north of Rio Grande basins and 30s and 40s F Marfa Plateau and Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Precipitation chances slowly decrease Saturday night as the storm system moves away and cold front clears the area, with lows falling into the single digits to teens north and northeast of Rio Grande basins and into the 20s F Rio Grande basins - up to 5F to 10F colder than previous runs.

Precipitation will finally come to an end and temperatures slowly moderate to end the weekend, but don't expect a quick warmup. As the disturbance develops off to the east and phases with the troughing centered over Hudson Bay on Sunday, high amplitude flow will return to a northwest trajectory over the area, cutting off trajectories from the Pacific and ending any lingering precipitation chances. Highs in the 20s and 30s F northeast of Rio Grande basins Sunday warm by 10F Monday into the 40s to mid 50s F, and 5F to 10F into the mid 40s to mid 50s F by Tuesday. Lows from the single digits into teens north and northeast of Rio Grande basins and below freezing in the Rio Grande basins continue for Sunday night warm by up to 5F each night as warmer temperatures slowly return to the area, although lows are still likely to fall near to below freezing for much of the area until the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light south winds become northerly after 12Z Wednesday behind a cold front moving through the area.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 32 57 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 27 55 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 35 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 34 58 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 33 53 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 27 56 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 28 63 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 31 57 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 31 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 27 58 29 67 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.