textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms across the area today and Saturday will likely result in localized flash flooding across urban and low-lying areas.

- A warmer and drier weather pattern settles over the region on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A few showers/storms are ongoing over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos as an upper level low makes its approach from the southwest out of Mexico. Most of this activity looks to largely diminish by sunrise. Lift from a series of shortwave impulses, followed by the main upper-low system, will combine with daytime heating to trigger isolated to scattered showers/storms later this afternoon. Rain chances during the afternoon range from 20-50% across our region, with the best (40-50%) odds overlaying areas west of the Pecos River and the higher terrain in west Texas. Given plentiful moisture streaming in aloft, surface dewpoints in upper 50s to 60s, and the fact that many parts of our region have already seen bouts of heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding remains a primary concern Friday afternoon. Aside from occasionally heavy rainfall, a couple of storms may still produce gusty winds and small hail. Friday evening and into the overnight hours, rain chances gradually taper down west to east, as the upper level low progresses northeast over west Texas.

By Saturday afternoon, the upper low is progged to be situated near the Texas Panhandle, while a surface trough extends north-south over the Great Plains. The trough will serve as a focal point for more shower/storm development Saturday afternoon, as 20-50% rain chances spread over the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Again, flash flooding due to locally heavy rainfall will be our primary concern with storms Saturday afternoon and evening; however, a few storms may also pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Aside from rainfall, lower heights and cloud coverage shall moderate temperatures during the Short Term period. Highs Friday are expected to top out in the upper 70s within the higher terrain, with 80s for almost everyone else. Temperatures Friday night generally cool into the 60s, then warm into the 80s for most again Saturday. Our warmest spots will be near and along the river valleys, with highs reaching the 90s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Much warmer and drier conditions take shape beginning on Sunday lasting through the middle of next week. The upper-level low bringing rain/storms through Saturday will lift northeast by Sunday morning. As a result, upper-level ridging builds over west Texas and southeast New Mexico bringing downslope winds. High temperatures shoot back into in the mid 90s to lower 100s for most locations from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. These temperatures are typical for early June. Lows each night remain similar ranging from the 60s to lower 70s regionwide. The next notable rain/storm chances (10-20%) return on Wednesday across the Davis Mountains. This is thanks to an upper-level storm system developing across the western CONUS. Cluster analysis is in agreement with this upper-level system approaching from the west by Wednesday through Friday timeframe which may bring further rain/storm chances to some parts of the region. Various solutions amongst model guidance becomes prevalent late next week on the positioning, strength, and track of the system. Therefore, the extent of these chances remain unclear at this time.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail at most sites. This afternoon and into the evening, isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop across the region. Generally southeasterly winds may become gusty and erratic in the vicinity of storms. Also, there may be occasional reductions to visibility and ceilings associated with storms. As such, PROB30s have been included at most sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 86 65 85 67 / 30 50 50 20 Carlsbad 88 64 90 65 / 20 30 10 0 Dryden 86 67 90 69 / 30 40 10 0 Fort Stockton 86 63 89 67 / 50 40 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 78 61 81 64 / 50 30 10 0 Hobbs 85 61 85 62 / 20 30 10 10 Marfa 79 53 84 55 / 50 20 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 84 64 85 67 / 30 50 20 10 Odessa 84 64 85 67 / 30 50 10 10 Wink 87 64 88 67 / 40 30 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.