textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Isolated showers and storms today over eastern portions of the area (10-40% chances, with the best chances in the northeast Permian Basin). Storms may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions return today and Friday over portions of southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West Texas.

- Shower and storm chances (generally 20-50%) continue from Saturday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Current mesoanalysis depicts troughing over the western CONUS. Meanwhile, southeasterly to southerly winds are evident across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. These winds are allowing for low- level moisture to filter into the area, particularly across the Permian Basin southward into the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans- Pecos. This increase in moisture, coupled with increasing cloud cover (especially over eastern portions of the area, where a stratus deck is forecast to develop), keeps lows in the 50s and low 60s for most locations. Guidance indicates some fog may even attempt to develop over northern portions of the area this morning thanks to this increase in moisture. In fact, relative humidities between 80- 90% are already evident from Scurry to Gaines Counties. Naturally, we will keep a close eye on how this evolves through the morning.

This afternoon, a dryline sharpens up over portions of the Permian Basin southwards into the Lower Trans-Pecos. Convective-Allowing Models (including the 00Z runs of the HRRR, RRFS, and HREF ensemble) now depict isolated storms developing off this dryline over portions of the eastern (particularly the northeastern) Permian Basin. The highest shower and thunderstorm chances (10-30%, up to 40%) will span from this afternoon into the evening. Despite the expected low storm coverage, any storm that does develop would carry with it a large hail and damaging wind threat. West of the dryline (especially in the higher terrain and in southeast New Mexico), breezy winds and very dry conditions lead to enhanced fire weather concerns. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. The dryline (along with our storm chances) moves east of the area Friday. Breezy winds once again develop, leading to yet another day of enhanced fire weather concerns as highs top out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s for most. The active stretch of weather continues into the Long Term Period.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The cold front is expected to have swept through the region and be displaced to our south (near the Big Bend/Mexico border) by late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Increased cloud cover and cold air advection behind the front yields afternoon highs in the 60s for most. Meanwhile, an upper-level low over SoCal/Baja sends shortwave perturbations embedded in southwesterly flow aloft over west Texas, bringing the return of low to medium (generally 20-50%) rain chances across the eastern half of our forecast area on Saturday. The best chances currently reside from the far eastern Permian Basin and extend southward into the Lower Trans-Pecos region, which is where the best moisture quality and lift appear to be at this time. However, the lack of daytime heating in the post-frontal airmass is expected to limit instability, thus hindering the severe weather threat.

The NBM keeps rain chances (20-60% - albeit probably too high for early next week) in the forecast through Tuesday next week as the upper-level low gradually approaches the area. However, uncertainty remains in the track of the the upper-level low early next week. As such, there also remains uncertainty in moisture quality, lift, and instability during this timeframe. Many long-range models show the area getting "dry-slotted". However, some model forecast soundings do show PWAT values ranging from the 75th to 99th percentile per the SPC Sounding Climatology page. If the latter were to materialize, appreciable rain chances can be expected. However, the former would mean that rain chances would greatly be diminished. These features greatly depend on the positioning and track of the aforementioned upper-level low. Given the above reasoning and experience, rain chances should realistically be lower than what the NBM depicts at the current moment. With that said, we will continue monitoring trends in the data and make adjustments to the forecast as needed. In doing so, the finer details will be ironed out in the coming days as confidence increases. By the middle of next week, ensemble guidance shows the upper low moving east of our region and taking any remnant rain chances along with it.

Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR remains at all terminals for now with IFR CIGs moving into MAF early this coming morning. Winds pick up during the day with gusts between 20-25kts. Directions remaining southerly to southwesterly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns are expected to develop today. Min RHs fall below 15% for mainly the western half of the area today and regionwide on Friday. Fuels remain dry across the region and above normal temperatures continue through the end of the week. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop on Thursday/Friday and overlap with the critically low Min RHs, especially for areas across southeast New Mexico and west of the Pecos River in west Texas. As such, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect Thursday afternoon through early evening for the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect Friday for the same time/locations. A cold front is expected to sweep through the area Saturday, bringing northerly winds and near-normal tempertures. As such, Min RHs are forecast to improve this weekend, lowering fire weather concerns.

Greening

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 80 57 82 45 / 30 20 10 40 Carlsbad 83 49 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 85 57 89 56 / 20 10 0 20 Fort Stockton 88 55 84 49 / 10 10 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 74 48 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 80 47 74 42 / 10 10 0 10 Marfa 79 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 80 56 80 48 / 20 10 0 40 Odessa 80 56 81 48 / 20 10 0 30 Wink 84 49 79 45 / 10 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.