textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Warming trend through midweek before another front knocks Thursday's temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (10-30%) precipitation chances Thursday. Cannot rule out snow flurries and a few light snow showers across portions of southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation along with no travel impacts are expected.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Upper-level flow becomes zonal to northwesterly tonight as a trough departs to our northeast. An area of surface high pressure develops north of our region tonight, resulting in light winds and clear skies. This allows for better radiational cooling that brings tonight's lows plummeting into the 20s over much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Upper Trans Pecos. Areas elsewhere should expect to dip into the 30s.

Tuesday, an upper-level trough swings from the Pacific Northwest toward the Desert Southwest. A lee trough helps develop a surface low near the Panhandle, steering a breezy, southwesterly wind over much of our region Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will be a touch windy over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, but currently look to remain below High Wind criteria, if not reaching criteria briefly. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the 60s, with the exception of low 70s in portions of the Trans Pecos. The surface low's associated cold front begins to drop down into the Panhandle Tuesday night, knocking on our doorstep by Wednesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday night dip into the 30s and 40s ahead of the front.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A cold front is set to arrive in the region sometime on Wednesday. Guidance has been trending at a later arrival favoring warmer high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. If the cold front comes in earlier before peak daytime heating, temperatures are going to be much cooler than forecasted especially for areas across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given latest trends, confidence is increasing for a warmer Wednesday. Colder air and brisk winds (15-20 kt sustained) settles in behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Gap winds during this timeframe are also anticipated at Guadalupe Pass, though these winds are not forecast to remain below high wind criteria at this time. Low temperatures dip in the mid 20s to mid 30s for areas north of the I-10 corridor, while areas south of the corridor span in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

Cold weather is in store on Thursday as a surface high pressure spanning from the Central to Southern Plains ushers more cold air into the region. Broken to overcast cloud coverage throughout the day will also mitigate temperatures from warming up. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s for areas north of I-10, while warmer highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast for areas south of the I-10 corridor. Guidance has subtle mid-level shortwave troughing Thursday morning into the afternoon, prompting low (10-30%) precipitation chances across southeast New Mexico, Davis/Guadalupe Mountains, and Big Bend region. Cannot rule out some scattered snow flurries and a couple of light snow showers during the morning hours across portions of southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains given the cold temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest the main precipitation type will be snow, though there could be intermittent periods of light sleet later in the morning as temperatures rise. This is all based upon if there will be enough moisture for this to occur. Little to no accumulation along with no travel impacts are expected.

Friday into the weekend, westerly flow aloft returns which increases temperatures back into the 60s and low 70s. Breezy conditions are expected to occur, especially over the Guadalupe Mountains. High winds are possible due to guidance showing an upper-level trough swinging across the region with a jet maximum near the Guadalupes Friday night into Saturday morning. There is uncertainty with the high wind potential during this time; stay up to date with the latest forecast!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most sites. An area of surface high pressure sets up to our north later today, bringing light winds with a northerly component and clear skies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 27 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 27 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 38 62 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 34 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 34 59 43 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 24 63 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 27 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 28 63 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 27 63 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 28 65 39 70 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.