textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Temperatures this forecast peak above normal Thursday. - A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas for a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow. However, some uncertainty remains as to what falls where and when.

- An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect Friday evening and Saturday morning for Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas for dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon continues to show low clouds to the east of the area. Highs are only forecast to rise into the 50s F north of the Rio Grande basins and 60s F Rio Grande basins with 70s F only along the Rio Grande, mainly for the Big Bend. This will be in the wake of the cold front and gusty winds accompanying the CAA behind the front. Winds shift to southerly by this afternoon into the evening as the air mass recovers, while high level clouds begin increasing from west to east as moisture from a disturbance over Baja CA and from the subtropical jet stream east from the Pacific at mid to upper levels. Dew point temperatures will take a longer time to rise and stay in the teens and 20s F, allowing for overnight cooling despite increasing high level clouds. This will mean another night tonight of near to below freezing temperatures north of the Rio Grande basins and lows still falling into the 30s to lower 40s F for the southern Rio Grande basins. Despite increasing cloud cover Thursday, persistent southerly winds advecting in warmer air will allow for a calm before the storm, with near to above average temperatures 5F to 10F higher than today, translating to 60s F, 50s F higher elevations Culberson County and Eddy County, and 70s F for parts of the Stockton Plateau into Rio Grande basins. With persistent south/southeast winds near the surface allowing dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture to increase into the 30s F, lows Thursday night will likewise end up 10F warmer than tonight, meaning 50s F in the southern Rio Grande basins, 40s F north of Rio Grande basins and south of central SE NM plains and central Permian Basin, with mid 30s F basins and foothills of Marfa Plateau into central SE NM plains into central Permian Basin. The one big uncertainty is timing of a strong Arctic cold front. While 75th and higher pecentile ensembles show lows remaining in the mid 30s F, 25th and lower percentile ensembles show near to below freezing temperatures by Friday morning. The timing of this Arctic cold front will be key to not just lows Thursday night, but precipitation type and timing in the upcoming winter weather event. For more on this upcoming event, read the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Friday morning, the first of two upper troughs is poised to be just off the coast of SoCal/Baja del Norte, putting West Texas and Southwest New Mexico under progressive southwest flow aloft. Closer to home, a strong cold front is forecast to be pushing through Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin at 12Z. NAM buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF as early as 18Z. This will result in temperatures plunging around 15 F from Thursday, coming in around 10 F below normal. Lift along the front will result in rain showers initially, but quickly change over to a rain/sleet mix, and then freezing rain as colder air drags surface temperatures well below freezing, with a prominent warm nose on buffer soundings. This warm nose looks, at times, right on the boundary between freezing rain and sleet, so a messy mix will be possible at times. Not much room for wet-bulbing, as soundings are saturated all the way up through the column, but CAA will be enough in itself that confidence is high in p-type. The biggest issue is when changeovers occur at a given location. Unfortunately, the timing of the front on the NAM, and the strength of the CAA suggests the predominant concern will be freezing rain. If current QPF persists, an ice storm warning may be needed, especially eastern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains, but we'll address that closer to the event. For now, we'll keep the watch going. Latest QPF increase FZRA over Culberson County, as well as in the Davis Mountains, so we'll add a row of zones to the southwest portion of the watch.

In addition to the winter precip, bitterly cold temperatures are expected Saturday night and Sunday night across most of the CWA. Current lows suggest cold weather advisories may be needed, but this is too far out to jump on just yet. Saturday looks to be our coldest day, possibly since 2021, as highs in the lowlands struggle into the 20s, around 30-35 F below normal!

The aforementioned upper trough will attenuate as it approaches West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Saturday, only to be followed by a secondary trough forecast to pass through the Four Corners and through the area Sunday morning. As the troughs pass through, forecast soundings finally lose the warm nose Saturday night, changing p-type to snow for most of the area. This activity should taper off Sunday morning, with a dry forecast through the rest of the long term.

Zonal flow aloft follows the exiting trough, veering to northwest as a weak ridge approaches next week. Temperatures will gradually warm through Tuesday, when highs warm to only 15 F or so below normal. Much of the warming after Sunday will depend on how much frozen precip remains on the ground. Stay tuned for frequent updates, and things WILL change!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 29 65 35 48 / 0 0 10 50 Carlsbad 30 65 39 49 / 0 0 10 60 Dryden 34 69 46 67 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Stockton 34 71 46 61 / 0 0 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 37 59 41 47 / 0 0 10 60 Hobbs 28 64 33 46 / 0 0 10 60 Marfa 29 68 38 62 / 0 0 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 30 64 38 50 / 0 0 10 50 Odessa 31 64 39 50 / 0 0 10 50 Wink 28 64 39 49 / 0 0 10 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler.

NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.