textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Hot temperatures expected through the period, with triple digit highs for most locations. Persistent heat will present an increasing risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances generally remain low (10-20%) to none through at least the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

West Texas and southeast New Mexico continue to bake through the Short Term period underneath an upper-level ridge. No changes have been made to today's Heat Advisory for Borden, Scurry, Mitchell, and Howard counties, where maximum temperatures and heat indices around 105 degrees are expected. Elsewhere, highs at or above the century mark will be commonplace (low-to-mid 90s in the higher terrain). Lows tonight generally dip down into the mid-to-upper 70s. As the ridge begins to shift westward this afternoon, Convective-Allowing Models continue to depict isolated showers and thunderstorms over mainly eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, as well as near the higher terrain farther south. DCAPE between 1000- 1500 J/kg suggests a couple of storms may be capable of producing strong winds. By Friday, hotter temperatures shift more towards our western counties following the center of the ridge. Highs across the area still top out in the upper 90s and at or just above 100 degrees, but the hottest temperatures (around 105 degrees) will be found in Eddy County (where a Heat Advisory has been issued) and along the Rio Grande. Lows Friday night are similar to tonight's, albeit a couple of degrees cooler generally. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near/west of the Davis Mountains tomorrow afternoon (10-15% chances). Disturbances rounding the ridge result in additional rain chances for southeast New Mexico and perhaps the far northwestern Permian Basin tomorrow evening as well (10-30%).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The upper-level ridge axis shifts farther to our west by Saturday, yielding highs 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Friday's. However, triple digit temperatures become confined to the river valleys, with mid-to- upper 90s elsewhere. Meanwhile, we cannot rule out the chance of an isolated shower/storm or two across portions of southeast New Mexico and higher terrain (thanks to southeasterly upslope flow) Saturday afternoon as a surface lee cyclone passes just to our north. Sunday and beyond, the upper-level ridge strengthens aloft and heights increase across the region. This allows for widespread triple digit highs to return, with the hottest spots along the river valleys once again. Some locations along the Pecos River look to see readings near 105 degrees through at least the middle of next week. Whereas folks along the Rio Grande could see readings top out between 105 and 110 degrees, especially in low-lying areas. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks under shade if you must be outside for an extended period of time! Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southeasterly to southerly winds remain light. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly east of MAF this afternoon and evening, but confidence was too low to include a PROB30 at the terminal at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 102 76 99 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 79 104 76 100 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 79 99 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 78 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 72 96 70 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 76 103 73 98 / 0 0 20 0 Marfa 67 96 63 93 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 79 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 79 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 80 103 75 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.