textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Rain chances begin to increase over the eastern portions of our region this afternoon, eventually spanning area-wide Thursday through Friday before tapering off through Saturday afternoon.

- Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding Thursday into Thursday night.

- Temperatures trend cooler through the remainder of the week, then begin to rebound late this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A cooler and rainier stretch of weather is ahead later this week is fast approaching. A cold front developing in from the northeast is visible on radar imagery as a reflectivity gust front boundary progressing east/southeast. The cold front will clear most of the eastern and central Permian Basin and Lea County today but stall along the Pecos River. This will result in lower clouds and higher dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s F with temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s F behind the cold front, and continued temperatures in the mid 80s F to mid 90s F southwest of the cold front. Winds will once again increase this afternoon to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts in the mountains, but with southeast upslope winds behind the cold front and south/southwest winds ahead of the cold front. Rain chances through today will remain low (20% to 30%) and largely confined to a few showers/storms this afternoon and evening over eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, although SPC has eastern parts of the area outlooked in a MRGL risk for strong to severe storms and hail and damaging wind should any strong storms develop is not out of the question. Fire weather conditions will occur over the Guadalupes this afternoon, but the fire risk looks to be shorter-lived than the last few days due to cooler temperatures and decreased westerly downsloping winds. Lows tonight fall into upper 40s F northern Lea County, 50s to lower 60s F behind the cold front, and 60s F ahead of the cold front.

Cooler and stormier weather looks increasingly likely for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. The cold front begins its further surge southwest, clearing much of the area by Thursday. However, this will be in association with an approaching disturbance from Baja CA providing a steady stream of moisture that maintains mostly cloudy skies, and disturbances rippling over central parts of the forecast area at mid to upper levels providing lift and moisture for shower/storm formation. High-res CAMs show most of the storm formation holding off until the end of the day, with highs rising into the 60s and 70s northeast of the Pecos River and 80s to lower 90s F southwest of the Pecos River. SPC has outlooked the eastern part of the area in a MRGL risk, and strong to severe storms appear possible in high-res CAMs late evening into the overnight as 6 hr PoPs increase from 35% to 55% for central and eastern Permian Basin beginning afternoon and into the medium to high 55% to 70% range northeast of the Marfa Plateau Thursday night. High-res CAMs currently depict two main areas to watch for tomorrow for initiation of storms: Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos and central and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. However, this could change as we get closer to the period. Rainfall totals in NBM and ensembles continue to remain in the 0.25" to 0.50" range northeast of the Marfa Plateau, with isolated amounts up to at least 0.75" to 1.00" and a medium 45% to 60% probability of rainfall anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" for Lea County, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County, and a still low to medium 35% to 55% probability of rainfall 1.50" to 2.00" over easternmost parts of the area, especially the northeast Permian Basin. Therefore, we are monitoring potential for flash flooding from repeated rounds of showers/storms Thursday night as PWATs near and above 1.00" run 2.5 to 3.0 standard deviations above normal for this time of year, in addition to risk of hail and damaging winds in stronger storms. Lows Thursday night fall into the 40s and 50s F as cooler air continues to move in behind the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain chances continue to increase Thursday evening and overnight as an upper level trough translates east across the Desert Southwest, arriving overhead by Friday. Ahead of this system, lift from shortwave impulses aloft combines with moisture advected from the east, encouraging scattered shower development areawide. Medium to high (50-90%) rain chances are progged to overly the region overnight Thursday, with the lowest (50-70%) odds southwest of the Davis Mountains. Given an overall lack of significant CAPE (<1000 J/kg) this set up would favor showers over thunderstorms, although a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out. A hazard to monitor will be the potential of occasionally heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding, especially over SE New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos. Ensemble data continues to depict PWATs anywhere between 1-1.5" over these areas through Friday morning. Of course, actual rainfall totals will rely heavily on rainfall timing, rates, and motion. Rain chances gradually taper down Friday into Friday night, as the upper trough passes overhead and better lift shifts northeastward. With a few shortwave impulses lingering near our region Saturday may allow for isolated (10-30%) shower activity over SE New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas through the early afternoon. Rain chances largely come to an end by Saturday evening.

Temperatures through the remainder of this week trend cooler. Thursday night, lows generally fall into the 50s. Cloudy skies, rainy conditions, and lower heights aloft promote highs in the 50s in the Permian Basin and SE new Mexico Friday, with areas south warming into the 60s (70s to 80s in our southernmost counties). Temperatures begin to rebound Saturday, with may topping out in the 60s. Heading into a new week, temperatures continue to trend upward as ridging builds aloft. Highs in the 70s Sunday give way to 80s on Monday, when a lee trough develops over the Plains, then 80s and low 90s Tuesday afternoon. Long-range models hint at another storm system reaching the West Coast by midweek. We'll have to see what eventual impacts this may have on us over the next several days!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions today apart from MVFR or lower into 15Z-18Z for terminals on the eastern part of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau this morning. Winds at terminals northeast of the Pecos River shift from westerly to northeast by 08Z-13Z, remain more variable for terminals over the Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos, and increase to 15 to 20 knots for most terminals by 14Z-20Z. Winds then decrease and shift to southeasterly 00Z-03Z east of the Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau, while remaining south/southwest for terminals over the Eddy County Plains. Uncertainty is present about whether MVFR or lower conditions develop for terminals over W TX tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 57 72 51 / 0 10 60 90 Carlsbad 91 62 77 52 / 0 10 40 90 Dryden 95 67 81 62 / 20 20 50 80 Fort Stockton 94 65 82 56 / 10 10 50 90 Guadalupe Pass 81 61 70 50 / 0 10 30 80 Hobbs 84 54 72 48 / 0 10 40 90 Marfa 87 55 82 50 / 0 10 20 70 Midland Intl Airport 84 60 75 52 / 0 10 60 90 Odessa 84 60 75 53 / 0 10 60 90 Wink 90 62 78 55 / 0 10 40 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.