textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

- Low to medium rain chances today in/near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains (30-50%). Aside from isolated (10-20%) rain chances over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River, dry conditions are expected for most Tuesday.

- Low (10-25%) shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday, mainly in the higher terrain and northern Permian Basin.

- Highs remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, rising into the low- to- mid 90s for most by the end of the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

An area of upper-level high pressure continues to build near our region out of Mexico tonight. The ridge's influence over our area stays relatively weak due to a trough rolling from the Pacific Northwest toward the central Great Plains. Later this afternoon, showers/storms are expected over the higher terrain of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Activity should begin to taper down during the evening hours. Temperatures tonight and Tuesday night settle into the 50s near the Davis Mountains, 60s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday warm into the 80s to low 90s. With ridging as our primary weather maker, rain chances remain low (10-20%), restricted to the higher terrain on our western periphery Tuesday afternoon, aided by orographic lift.

Lopez

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

By Wednesday, an upper-level trough begins traversing across the Plains. It looks like the best forcing associated with this trough will remain north of our area, and we will remain in quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. That being said, small disturbances/vorticity maxima are expected to round the base of the main system. These disturbances will provide at least some forcing across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Additionally, the trough will try to send a front down Wednesday night (which looks to weaken, retreat north Thursday, then get pushed back down this direction Thursday night). Right now it appears this front will stall right before or else just as it reaches our northernmost zones. In any case, the disturbances, coupled with sufficient moisture and potentially some lift from the front, imply at least isolated storms are possible Wednesday through Saturday. The "best" chances will be in the higher terrain (thanks in large part to upslope flow) and the northern Permian Basin (10-25%). High temperatures remain steadily in the upper 80s and low 90s.

By Sunday, ridging builds over the southwestern CONUS. We will remain on the periphery of the strongest subsidence, but rain chances will nevertheless diminish. Meanwhile, temperatures will rise through the rest of the Long Term, reaching the low-to-mid 90s across much of the area Sunday and Monday.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most sites. A few storms are expected near CNM, HOB, and possibly PEQ later this afternoon and into the early evening. Winds will generally be out of the south and southeast, occasionally becoming gusty, especially in the vicinity of shower/storm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 89 65 89 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 64 87 64 87 / 10 10 0 20 Dryden 68 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 79 61 79 / 10 10 0 20 Hobbs 63 85 62 85 / 10 0 0 10 Marfa 56 81 56 81 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 66 87 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 65 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.