textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Cool and dry weather this weekend.

- Showers/storms and warm, humid weather for early to mid March forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts and coverage remain uncertain, with timing of any showers/storms most likely Monday evening into Tuesday night, and again Tuesday afternoon through evening.

- Cooler temperatures and gusty winds expected mid-week.

- Warm and dry weather returns by late next week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough developing off the coast of Baja del Norte, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Closer to home, mesoanalysis shows a strong cold front has made it to the Rio Grande, and headed towards the Gulf coast. Convection that formed along/behind this feature brought a little relief, mainly to the eastern/southern Permian Basin. MRMS suggests up to around 2" may have fallen in SE Glasscock County. Highs this afternoon will struggle into the 60s most locations.

Tonight, generally light northeasterly surface winds will persist, allowing CAA to bring overnight minimums down to ~ 3-5 F above climatology. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out south of I-10, as the upper trough sends subtle perturbations up through southwest flow aloft.

Sunday, surface winds veer back to return flow, pushing a weak warm front north and advecting Gulf moisture back into the area. This will combine w/upslope flow to increase chances of convection, especially southeast in the richer moisture. Return flow will increase thicknesses, adding ~ 2-4 F to afternoon highs, bringing them back above normal, albeit only a couple of degrees on average.

Sunday night, CAMs taper off convection to the lower Trans Pecos. Skies will clear northwest, but remain cloudy southeast. This will combine with a weak, 25 kt LLJ to keep overnight lows over 10 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

An unsettled weather pattern sets in for the beginning through middle part of next week, both in terms of temperature and precipitation. Deterministic and ensemble models both indicate that a closed upper storm system initially over Baja CA will develop east into northern MX through early week. Accompanying moisture, lift, and instability ahead of this upper storm system will lead to increased shower/storm chances, although amounts and coverage still remain uncertain. NBM currently indicates most likely timing Monday evening through Tuesday night. Low to medium rain probabilities (35% to 50%) are indicated as well for regions northeast of the Pecos River Monday evening. Highs Monday amidst south/southeast winds advecting in more humid air from the coastal plain and Gulf will rise more or into the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations. At this time, SPC only has general thunderstorms, however, heavy rain and gusty, erratic winds can be expected in any stronger storms. Lows Monday night fall into the lower to mid 50s F for central Brewster and Presidio Counties into Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian Basin, and only into the upper 50s to lower 60s F eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County and Rio Grande basin, with mid to upper 40s F lows limited to Marfa Plateau, basins of Culberson County, and northern SE NM plains. These warm lows, which have not been seen in at least a few months, will again be courtesy of persistent south/southeast winds advecting in humid air that limits overnight cooling, with dew point temperatures rising into the 40s to 50s F to the east of western higher terrain, and into the 30s to 40s F for western higher terrain. The closed upper air disturbance over northern MX opens up into a wave and progresses faster to the east, merging with northern stream troughing over the Northern to Central Great Plains. The progression of the disturbance will not be fast enough to diminish rain chances over the area, with low to medium (35% to 50%) rain probabilities lingering over the area, especially the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County. However, the faster eastward progression will hasten a wind shift to the southwest and then west, enabling progression of a Pacific cold front to bring cooler and drier air over the western higher terrain into SE NM plains. This cooler and drier air will be characterized by highs only rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s F and dew point temperatures falling back into the 20s to 30s F range. To the east, the progression of drier air will be delayed despite breezy to gusty west/southwest winds areawide. This will mean warmer air in the upper 70s to 80s F will remain over much of the Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande basin for Tuesday. Dew point temperatures fall back into the 20s F western higher terrain into Rio Grande basin and 30s F elsewhere as winds shift to north/northwest with another cold front passage from the north and remain gusty Tuesday night. This decreases boundary layer moisture that enhances overnight cooling, but keeps maintains mechanical mixing of the boundary layer that limits overnight cooling, yielding lows still only falling into the lower to mid 50s F for the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County, Stockton Plateau, and the central and eastern Permian Basin, with lower to mid 40s F Marfa Plateau into Culberson County, SE NM plains, and northwest Permian Basin, and upper 30s to lower 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and peaks of Davis Mountains.

The roller coaster ride in temperatures continues into the end of next week as the upper air pattern de-amplifies and becomes more zonal. Breezy north/northeast winds for Wednesday and Thursday maintain CAA and keep highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s F north of the Rio Grande basin, and 70s to 80s F for the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County. Cooler lows in the 30s to 40s F range and near freezing for southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau, peaks of Davis Mountains and northern Lea County give way to lows in the 40s to 50s F range for most of the area Thursday night as winds veer back to south/southeast. An increasing zonal mid to upper air pattern and renewed westerly downsloping winds with dew point temperatures continuing to remain low and largely below 30F brings a return to the more familiar late winter warm and dry weather we've experienced since February for late week. This will mean a return to highs in the mid to upper 80s F and 90s F along the Rio Grande and lows largely in the mid 40s to mid 50s F by the end of the week into early next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Gusty post-frontal winds will diminish after sundown, then go light/variable overnight and Sunday, generally out of the southeast. A few high clouds are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 40 72 54 83 / 0 10 10 10 Carlsbad 39 71 45 82 / 0 10 0 10 Dryden 51 69 54 81 / 10 30 10 10 Fort Stockton 45 70 51 84 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 42 64 49 74 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 37 72 46 81 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 36 68 41 78 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 42 71 54 82 / 0 20 10 10 Odessa 43 70 54 81 / 10 20 10 10 Wink 42 69 49 83 / 10 10 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.