textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Guadalupe Mountains, and Culberson County Plains. Avoid outdoor burning of any kind today!

- A sharp warming trend begins today and continues through the weekend.

- Increasing potential for record heat late this week into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Nighttime IR imagery depicts scattered to broken mid to high level clouds drifting from north to south within northerly mid to upper flow aloft. This will continue today despite winds at the surface veering from east/southeast to south/southwest this afternoon, as mid to upper northerly flow on the back side of eastern CONUS troughing persists. However, mid to upper ridging increasing to 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal then builds in from the western CONUS later today, allowing highs to rise 20 to 25 degrees warmer than yesterday. Temperatures start out in the upper 30s to mid 40s F mid-morning, rising into the 50s and 60s F by noon, and then upper 60s to mid 70s F by late afternoon into early evening. Coolest high temperatures expected not just for higher elevations but for southeasternmost parts of the forecast area farther away from large scale sinking and accompanied warming from the mid to upper ridging. With dew point temperatures remaining in the teens to 20s F, lee troughing redeveloping over the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains, a warm and dry spring day is expected. Winds become light while remaining southerly by nightfall, which along with dew point temperatures remaining below 30F allows lows to maintain a 25 to 30 degree diurnal range characterized by lower 40s to lower 50s F range and mid to upper 30s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau as well as northeast Lea County into northwest Permian Basin. Highs rise back into the upper 60s to mid 70s F noon Wednesday and then into the lower to mid 80s F, upper 70s F higher elevations into southeasternmost parts of the area, with highs rising up to the 90s F for the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Conditions remain dry with dew point temperatures only rising into the 20s F as light southeast upslope flow ensues. If this seems like a pattern with similarities to the summer-time death ridge despite it being mid to late March, what might we expect temperatures to climb to as the warming trend only continues into the end of the week and this weekend? Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package. An upper-level high pressure system is expected to strengthen over the Desert Southwest in the middle to latter half of the week. This feature will bring well above normal to potentially record-breaking temperatures across the region late work week through the weekend. Confidence is increasing in record-breaking temperatures especially from Friday through Sunday as the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) reveal maximum climatological percentiles for 850, 700, and 500mb level temperatures. This indicates ensemble members are forecasting temperatures outside of climatology for this time of year. Cluster analysis also shows great agreement in the positioning of the upper high pressure system through the weekend, further increasing confidence in very warm temperatures for mid to late March. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s for most locations. Temperatures climb into the upper 80s and upper 90s Friday through Sunday as the high pressure moves slightly closer to the region. Surface lee troughing and low-level thermal ridging over the region will reinforce these warmer temperatures during this timeframe. Overnight lows remain mild Thursday morning in the 40s and 50s, before soaring into the upper 50s and mid 60s by the weekend. By Monday, guidance has a cold front sweeping through the region bringing cooler temperatures. There remains significant model spread amongst members creating high uncertainty in the exact forecast. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions with breezy south/southwest winds 15 to 20 knots developing at terminals 17Z-22Z. Winds then decrease 01Z-06Z for terminals over the SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos followed by Permian Basin 05Z-10Z before shifting to northerly for terminals north of the Stockton Plateau, while remaining southerly and breezy for terminals on the Stockton Plateau.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A sharp warming trend begins today and continues into the weekend. Critical minRHs and breezy southerly/southwesterly winds look to develop over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon lasting through early evening. Fuels continue to be dry across much of the region further elevating fire weather conditions. Given these conditions, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued over these areas this afternoon and early evening. Fire weather concerns decrease after today as winds become lighter. Well above normal temperatures and very low minRH will persist late this week into the weekend, but lighter 20-foot winds will generally mitigate fire weather concerns. Elevated fire conditions may return Sunday due to increased winds from surface troughing and a poor overnight recovery Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 42 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 80 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 42 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 79 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 75 40 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 71 38 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 42 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 42 83 46 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.