textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 - Rain chances trend upward today, becoming widespread tonight before tapering off Friday evening. The primary concern is heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially across southeast New Mexico, the Trans-Pecos, and most of the Permian Basin.

- A strong to severe storm or two may develop over the southeastern portions of our area this evening. Primary threats will be large hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend before highs rebound closer to normal by next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Current Mesoanalysis depicts an upper-level shortwave approaching the region from the Southern California/Baja area. Out ahead of this shortwave, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developed this morning, mainly over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Additional isolated to scattered convection will develop throughout the day today. A storm or two may become strong to marginally severe this afternoon across portions of Brewster, Pecos, and Terrell counties, posing mainly a large hail threat. Cloud cover and pockets of rain keep temperatures mild for late April. Highs top out in the 70s and low 80s for most, with 90s along the Rio Grande and upper 60s in our northernmost counties.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms overspread our area later tonight into Friday afternoon as the shortwave nears. Though the severe threat looks low overall (thanks to relatively low instability), plentiful moisture and the expected widespread nature of convection means flash flooding is our primary concern during this timeframe. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the area (save northeastern and southernmost counties) from 1AM CDT/12AM MDT tonight through 4PM CDT/3PM MDT Friday afternoon. Be especially cautious if driving tonight, and keep an eye out for flooded roadways (remember: turn around, don't drown)! Showers and thunderstorms begin to diminish late Friday afternoon and largely clear the area overnight as we end up behind the shortwave. Highs tomorrow stay quite cool, only topping out in the 50s and low-to-mid 60s for most locations. Lows drop into the 40s Saturday morning.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Skies clear Saturday and southeasterly winds return to the region. This allows temperatures to steadily warm through the rest of the weekend into next week. Nevertheless, highs remain largely near or below seasonal norms through the remainder of the extended. Most locations see highs in the 60s and low 70s Saturday, then low-to-mid 70s Sunday. By Monday, temperatures finally climb back into the 80s areawide (which is closer to normal for early May). Rain chances largely remain very low (< 10%) from Saturday through early next week as the best moisture remains mainly to the east of our area. However, at least some rain chances (10-20%) start to sneak back across portions of the region by the middle to latter parts of next week ahead of another advancing shortwave and an approaching front. Stay tuned for more details on that in future forecast packages!

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Hi-res models rapidly deteriorate cigs, and possibly vsbys, to IFR/LIFR beginning around 06Z tonight, and continue through Friday afternoon as an upper trough moves through the the area. This will be accompanied by a batch of convection moving through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico ~ 09-18Z Friday. Expect frequent updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 57 43 71 / 90 90 10 0 Carlsbad 53 59 45 67 / 90 80 20 10 Dryden 60 70 49 69 / 80 80 20 0 Fort Stockton 55 63 46 68 / 90 90 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 48 54 43 59 / 90 60 20 0 Hobbs 49 56 40 68 / 90 90 20 0 Marfa 49 67 39 65 / 90 60 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 53 58 45 68 / 90 90 10 0 Odessa 53 57 45 68 / 90 90 20 0 Wink 55 60 44 67 / 90 90 30 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday through Friday afternoon for Andrews-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.