textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 - Rain chances trend upward today, eventually spanning areawide by tonight before tapering off through Friday evening. Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding today into early Friday.

- A strong to severe storm or two may develop over the southeastern portions of our area this evening. Primary threats will be large hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Rainfall and cloudy skies result in below normal temperatures through early this weekend. Warmer and drier conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Showers/storms, some strong to severe with heavy rainfall, hail, and damaging winds are in store for today into tonight. IR satellite and radar imagery early this morning depicts broken cloud cover and showers drifting west to east across the area. The near overcast to overcast conditions are forecast to persist through today, with cloud bases lowering over the central and eastern Permian Basin, Terrell County, and eastern parts of the Rio Grande basin. As lift and moisture are focused ahead of a disturbance downstream over Baja CA tapping into Pacific moisture, low to medium 25% to 40% PoPs over the southeast Permian Basin into Terrell County and Big Bend and Guadalupes this afternoon increase into the medium 35% to 55% range over much of the evening into midnight. With continued southwest progression of the cold front and ensuing northeast/east winds over all but the Eddy County Plains expected today, highs only rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s F Lea County and northeast Permian Basin as well as western higher terrain, mid 70s to mid 80s F southwest of there, and 90s F only over the Presidio Valley and Big Bend. High- res CAMs depict isolated scattered showers/storms over the Guadalupes and southeast Permian Basin into Terrell County by this evening, with NBM showing locally heavy rainfall generating anywhere from 0.25" to 0.75" accumulation and ensembles indicating medium (35% to 55%) probability of 6 hourly rainfall amounts of that much areawide and up to 1.00" over the Pecos River. SPC has much of the Big Bend into southeast Permian Basin outlooked in a MRGL risk, so it is not out of question that a strong storm or two occurs as well. Lows tonight fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s F, 60s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County as low cloud cover limiting overnight cooling is offset by CAA on northeast winds and evaporational cooling of precipitation from showers/storms. PoPs increase into the medium high (45% to 65%) range tonight into tomorrow morning as high- res CAMs depict a messy storm mode and repeated rounds of showers/storms mainly north and east of the Marfa Plateau and east of the Presidio Valley.

By tomorrow morning, the shower/storm chances will continue, with high-res CAMs and HREF ensemble in relative agreement of a messy storm mode of moderate to heavy showers/storms ongoing through early afternoon. PoPs decrease from southwest to northeast, but are forecast to remain at least medium to high (45% to 65%) over western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin through evening. Fortunately, SPC does not have us outlooked in a MRGL risk, so the main threat with storms will be heavy rainfall. With even more evaporational cooling and persistent low clouds limiting diurnal heating, even cooler might temperatures struggling to rise above 60F northeast of the Pecos River, Eddy County plains, and higher elevations, and above 70 F north of the Rio Grande basin are expected, with lows falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s F north of the Rio Grande basin Friday night. Rainfall amounts by Saturday morning are likely to range from 0.50" to 1.00" or more north of the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos, with ensembles depicting at least a medium (35% to 55%) chance of additional rainfall up to 0.50" to 0.75". Drier weather with a gradual warming trend is expected into early next week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Rain chances taper down Friday evening, then diminish by Saturday morning as an upper level trough departs northeastward. This is a change from earlier forecast packages in which rain chances lingered through Saturday afternoon. The change is due to models indicating a faster moving system than originally thought. As such, surface high pressure looks to develop over Texas Saturday, then shift east Sunday. Drier conditions and rising heights promote a warming trend over the weekend. Friday night shall be the coldest within the forecast period, with lows falling to the 40s for many (some 30s in our northernmost counties). Highs top out mainly in the 60s Saturday, increasing to the 70s Sunday afternoon, 10-20 degrees below normal for early May. Temperatures continue an upward trend as upper ridging builds aloft and lee troughing steers breezy winds out of the southwest, especially on Tuesday. Expect afternoon highs generally in the 80s both Monday and Tuesday. Another storm, system is currently progged to approach our region from the Desert Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially pushing a cold front down from over the Plains late Wednesday. Whether or not the cold front reaches our region, generally lower heights associated with the approaching system would shave a few degrees off of Wednesday's highs compared to Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Morning MVFR CIGs are dissipating and should lead to VFR conditions for the next 12 hours. ISOLD SHRA/TS may develop this afternoon, but the greater coverage begins around 06Z and moves across the area through 18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected along with a line of thunderstorms that will disrupt flying operations from around 09Z through at least 16Z. Conditions improve shortly after the end of the TAF period.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 52 57 43 / 30 90 100 20 Carlsbad 82 55 59 45 / 20 100 90 20 Dryden 83 63 70 50 / 50 90 80 20 Fort Stockton 87 57 65 47 / 40 90 90 30 Guadalupe Pass 73 51 54 41 / 20 90 80 20 Hobbs 74 50 56 40 / 20 100 100 20 Marfa 82 52 66 38 / 20 90 70 20 Midland Intl Airport 78 54 58 45 / 40 90 100 20 Odessa 79 55 58 45 / 30 90 100 20 Wink 81 55 60 44 / 30 100 90 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for Andrews-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.