textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through early this evening for the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains. Another Heat Advisory is in effect Friday afternoon into early evening over similar locations, along with Eddy County.

- A cold front Saturday brings slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, before a warm-up next week. - The cold front this weekend will result in a chance of rain, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A mid to upper ridge will continue to center over the Intermountain West into Rockies, with accompanying large scale sinking and drying motion resulting in very warm temperatures to close the week. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon shows the absence of widespread cloud cover attesting to the large scale subsidence. While shower/storm chances are not zero, most locations today look to remain dry as highs rise into the 95F-100F range, 105F-110F range from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon through this evening for parts of Presidio County, the Marfa Plateau, and Guadalupes, where heating of elevated terrain will allow heat indices to rise up to 95F. Lows tonight settle into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos as dew point temperatures in the 55F-65F range and east/southeast winds maintaining humid upslope flow both limit overnight cooling.

Tomorrow, warmer high temperatures rising into the 100F-105F range for much of the lowlands, 95F-100F higher elevations and southeast Permian Basin, and 105F-110F Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Due to heating of elevated terrain and expanded coverage of heat indices up to 105F over the Eddy County Plains, a Heat Advisory will again be in effect tomorrow afternoon through evening for parts of the Presidio County, Marfa Plateau, Guadalupes, and Eddy County. Heat safety precautions such as limiting time outdoors during the hottest part of the day, remaining in air conditioned buildings and postponing activities if possible to the early morning or evening hours, not leaving people or pets inside vehicles, staying out of direct sunlight when possible, and drinking plenty of water are all encouraged. With a cold front developing down from the Front Range and TX/OK panhandles and a disturbance aloft focusing moisture and providing lift , PoPs will increase into the 25% to 35% range. However, high-res CAMs indicate isolate to scattered storm coverage and higher storm coverage to the north of the forecast area over E NM, so no significant impacts other than heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and lightning are expected at this time. Lows tomorrow night are expected to cool a few degrees as the subsequent cold front passage and northerly wind shift bring slightly cooler temperatures. These slightly cooler temperatures will be more pronounced this weekend. More details on that can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A slight cool down and increased rain chances are ahead at the start of the Long Term forecast. An upper trough begins to sag down across the eastern half of the US Saturday, shoving the ridge that has kept us hot and dry further to our west. The trough ushers in a cold front Saturday morning, offering some relief from the heat as highs top out mainly in the 90s Saturday and Sunday. An added bonus with this front is an upward tick in our rain chances. Some convection from Friday night may still be ongoing Saturday morning across the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM. Saturday afternoon, rain chances across the area range between 10-50%, with the best odds generally over SE NM. Saturday night into early Sunday afternoon, low (<20%) rain chances shift toward our southern counties.

The cool down is short-lived as upper ridging regains dominance over our weather pattern early next week. Triple digit heat sets back up within much of the Permian Basin, SE NM, and Upper Trans Pecos Monday afternoon. The hottest conditions will tend to lie near and along the Rio Grande, especially within the Big Bend. Models suggest the ridge expands east-west across the US and becomes flattened by a trough to its north Wednesday. As a result of lower heights, temperatures midweek look to mainly reach the upper 90s. Overnight lows through the period generally cool into the 60s in/near the higher terrain, with 70s at most other locations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout the period with east/southeast winds at terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 74 104 74 97 / 0 0 20 30 Dryden 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 73 101 73 96 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 70 97 70 89 / 0 10 20 30 Hobbs 71 101 70 94 / 0 0 30 50 Marfa 65 98 66 92 / 0 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 100 74 96 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 74 100 75 96 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 74 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.