textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next week. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery and 500 mb height analysis indicate that the upper-level high remains centered over the ArkLaTex region while an upper-level low was located over Idaho with its associated trough extending through the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly flow aloft between these features resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe Mountains during the late evening and overnight hours. The mesonet site at the Guadalupe Mountains National Park picked up a little over a half inch of rain between late Friday evening and the pre-dawn hours this morning. Mostly clear skies and dry weather conditions otherwise prevail over the remainder of the forecast area early this morning.

The upper-level ridge will maintain its position over east/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex region today, while southwesterly mid to upper-level flow increases over southeast New Mexico and portions of west and southwest Texas on the western periphery of this ridge and also ahead of the trough to our west and northwest. A series of shortwave impulses embedded within this W-SW flow aloft will translate over the region this afternoon and evening, while a surface trough axis meanwhile extends from the Texas panhandle into portions of southeast New Mexico and far west and southwest Texas. Plenty of moisture will remain in place this afternoon and evening, with precipitable water values ranging between 1-1.5 inches over most of the region. We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) to develop this afternoon over the Van Horn Corridor, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend and Upper Trans Pecos region. Other isolated (10-20%) showers/storms may develop over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and western Permian Basin by late this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50%) should continue to develop/expand into the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend through the evening hours. Forecast soundings over the region indicate that lapse rates will be steep this afternoon/evening with plenty of downdraft CAPE available (1000-1500 J/KG) to support a few stronger storm cores capable of producing localized strong to severe downburst winds. Frequent lightning strikes and heavy rainfall will also accompany the stronger storms that develop and the locally heavy rainfall rates could result in localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Highs today will remain well above normal with readings in he mid to upper 90s for most locations, except in the mid 80s to lower 90s in the mountains and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will mostly range in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The plume of deeper moisture with associated precipitable water values over 1 inch looks to shift eastward along an axis from the Permian Basin to the southwest mountains/Big Bend region on Sunday, while a drier airmass (PWATs of 0.6 to 0.9 inches) advects into southeast New Mexico. Isolated to scattered (20-50%) mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop over these locations, while activity should be much more sparse in nature over our northwestern zones (one or two cells could manage to develop over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains). We will continue to monitor for locally heavy rainfall and strong/gusty winds, especially from the Permian Basin down into the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau/Big Bend on Sunday. Highs remain well above normal Sunday afternoon with readings topping out similar to those today.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern and western U.S. will gradually translate eastward into the northern and central Plains into Sunday night and will send a cold front southward through the Texas panhandle Sunday night into Monday morning. This boundary may become oriented over the southeast New Mexico plains and Permian Basin by Monday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along this boundary and POPs remain pretty decent (30-50% chance) along and east of the mountains late Monday afternoon into Monday evening/night. Model solutions remain in good agreement with keeping the boundary in place over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another round of scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop along this boundary Tuesday into Tuesday night. Medium range model solutions also continue to show a plume of tropical moisture spreading northward from Mexico into portions of far southwest and west Texas and the southeast New Mexico plains along the western periphery of the upper-level ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday. This deeper moisture could serve to enhance convective coverage over some of our western and northwestern zones, including the Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and southeast New Mexico Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could bring an increased potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. The upper-level ridge will remain oriented from central/east Texas into the Gulf Coast states into Thursday, and additional moisture transport along the western periphery of the ridge will keep good shower/storm chances in the forecast through late this week over our western CWA, so we will need to continue to monitor for heavy rainfall/flooding potential into late week. The ridge may tend to build westward toward our eastern zones late in the week, so storm chances may be lower from the Permian Basin down into the Lower Trans Pecos Thursday and Friday. Temperatures otherwise trend closer to normal values Tuesday-Friday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s for most, except 50s in the higher elevations and lower 70s along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR continues for all sites, but TEMPO added from 23-03z at most terminals as isolated to scattered TS develop this afternoon and linger through this evening. Amendments will be necessary based on evening radar trends. Southerly winds prevail outside of any convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 98 70 94 / 30 20 40 20 Carlsbad 67 97 69 95 / 20 10 0 10 Dryden 75 97 73 97 / 30 30 20 10 Fort Stockton 72 95 70 94 / 30 30 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 65 87 66 86 / 30 10 0 10 Hobbs 67 95 67 91 / 30 10 10 30 Marfa 62 89 61 88 / 50 40 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 71 94 / 30 20 30 20 Odessa 74 96 72 94 / 30 20 30 20 Wink 72 98 71 96 / 30 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.