textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Friday for the Eddy County Plains, as well as the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains.

- A cold front Saturday brings slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, before a warm-up next week. - The cold front this weekend will result in a chance of rain, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered roughly over eastern New Mexico, and this feature will continue dominating the weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the next couple of days. Having moved very little over the past 24 hours, highs this afternoon should be similar to yesterday's, if not a skosh warmer due to the closer proximity of the ridge. As such, a Heat Advisory is warranted for most of the mountains again.

Tonight, unseasonably warm overnight minimums continue, mainly due to a recurring LLJ every night, occasionally assisted by mid/high clouds to retard radiational cooling. Overnight lows will come in ~ 6-8 F above climatology. Unfortunately, there's no end in sight to these warmer temperatures.

Friday, an upper trough is forecast to dig into the Great Lakes region, attempting to nudge the ridge west to eastern Arizona. Despite this, local thicknesses will continue increasing, yielding the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau ~ 8-10 F above normal. If Heat Advisories are needed for the mountains today, they certainly will be Friday, as well as the Eddy County plains, where the Pecos River Valley looks to meet criteria, as well. To the north, a cold front from the aforementioned Great Lakes region trough will move into the South Plains, possibly spawning convection down into northern Lea County before the afternoon is out.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Friday night, convection is forecast to continue developing south into the CWA, with the front entering the northern zones sometime Saturday morning. For those who prefer cooler weather, this is a rare treat, considering that 7/30-8/2 is climatologically the warmest time of the year for KMAF. The big question is how much cooling will accompany this mid-summer cold front? Some models, such as the NAM, depict highs Saturday in the 80s, whereas the GFS is around 10 F warmer. The NBM, slower to respond as would be expected with a blend, only shaves around 5 F off of Friday's highs. Assuming that diurnal heating will slow/modify the front somewhat as it tries to move in Saturday, warmer solutions seem more realistic. W/the strength of the cold front increasing with time as the event nears, so have rain chances, rendering Saturday afternoon the best chances of rain this forecast. Chances move south with the front Saturday night.

Sunday, under deep northerly flow aloft, and northeasterly flow at the surface, the NBM keeps highs similar to Saturday's, with lingering convective chances mainly south of I-10. The rest of the week, the ridge will oscillate around the Four Corners, resulting in a warmup not so much due to the upper ridge as the absence of the front. By Wednesday, highs should be back up to ~ 3-5 F above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 101 75 103 75 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 102 75 104 75 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 101 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 95 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 100 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 30 Marfa 97 66 99 67 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 101 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.