textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A warming trend continues through at least Wednesday, after which temperatures will decrease slightly Thursday and Friday, before rebounding through Columbus Day. - There is a 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of I-10 Thursday and Friday, and again Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A rather pedestrian forecast is in store for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico through Columbus Day and beyond. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge over the Four Corners, putting the region under dry, northwest flow aloft. At the surface, return flow is back in place. As a result of all this, a warmer, drier forecast will ensue over the next week or so.

Today, thicknesses will continue increasing as the ridge builds east, adding an average of 5 F to yesterday's highs, around a degree or so above climatology and putting most locations in the 80s.

Tonight, the LLJ that has been absent the past week or so redevelops, although not strongly. This will combine w/a few mid/high clouds to keep overnight minimums ~ 8-10 F above normal.

Wednesday, increasing thicknesses will add another couple of degrees to afternoon highs. Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Unfortunately, an upper trough will begin developing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico late Wednesday afternoon, and persist Thursday and Friday. This will shave 2-3 F off of highs Thursday and Friday, and result in low chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon south of I-10. For those who prefer warmer temperatures, a deep trough will begin developing over the west coast over the weekend, shoving the upper trough to the east and once again increasing thicknesses. Temperatures will then warm through the weekend, topping out Columbus Day some 8-10 F above normal, with 90s expected in the river valleys. By this time, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under progressive southwest flow aloft, and shortwaves moving through this flow could kick off a few showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Lamentably, QPF remains tepid.

Just beyond the extended, the GFS once again increases PWATs at KMAF to 1.92" by 12Z Tuesday, saturating the column to 300 mb. Climatology puts the 100th percentile at 1.45". Even the ECMWF comes in at 1.63". All this is in response to the west coast trough beginning to eject to the Four Corners. This has a good chance of disappearing over the next couple of runs, but we'll keep an eye on it. Stay tuned...

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light surface winds have veered back to return flow. A few high clouds are likely, but forecast soundings suggest convective temps are too high for a cu field this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 82 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 85 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 57 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 79 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 77 55 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 82 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 83 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.