textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Any isolated storms that develop later this afternoon and evening will carry a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and brief heavy rainfall. - Warmer conditions with isolated to scattered showers/storms expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough centered over southern Nevada, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. A mid-lvl speed max rounding the base of the trough will bring 40-50 kts of deep layer shear into the area this afternoon, suggesting severe convection will be possible. However, this remains inconclusive due to cloud cover, associated CIN, and rather tepid mid-lvl lapse rates.

Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary layer mixed. Combined w/plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows should come in ~ 6-8 F above climatology.

Saturday, surface winds are forecast to veer to SW, adding a downslope warming component to assist increasing thicknesses and adding a couple of degrees to today's highs, bringing them to 7-9 F above normal. These winds will also mix the dryline east, confining convective chances mainly to the lower Trans Pecos.

Saturday night, the LLJ isn't forecast to be quite as strong as tonight. This, along w/less cloud cover, should shave 3-4 F off of overnight lows.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Sunday, a weak upper ridge looks to be centered just off to our east, with an upper trough overlaying the western US. This leaves our region under southwesterly flow aloft, wherein which several disturbances are expected to pass overhead Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, surface low pressure over the Central Plains draws moist and breezy, south/southeasterly winds over the eastern portions of our area both afternoons. By Sunday afternoon, a dryline is progged to extend NE-SW across the Permian Basin, then south into the Big Bend. Sufficient lift ahead of the dryline and associated with a passing upper disturbance brings low to medium (10-60%) rain chances to the Permian Basin, the Upper and Lower Tans Pecos, and the higher terrain in west Texas. Best odds (40-60%) will be in/near the Davis Mountains. Rain chances taper down Sunday evening, then increase to 10-30% nearly areawide Monday afternoon, as the dryline waffles back west and another disturbance progresses overhead. Rain chances persist Tuesday onward due to a continued flow of disturbances aloft and surface moisture out of the southeast. Our best shot at rainfall across the area will be during the latter half of the week, as an upper low approaches.

Despite rain chances, temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to top out above normal. Sunday will be the hottest of the two days, as afternoon highs reach the upper 90s and triple digits (mainly near and along the river valleys). Monday's highs shall warm to just a few degrees shy of Sunday's. Temperatures trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week given increased cloud coverage and rain chances. By midweek, many locations currently look to see highs in the 80s. Overnight lows are generally expected to cool into the 60s each night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. ISOLD TS developing 18-03Z will not impact any terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 69 99 69 95 / 0 10 10 0 Carlsbad 61 101 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 98 71 96 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 67 99 67 97 / 0 40 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 63 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 61 98 63 96 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 56 93 56 92 / 0 50 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 68 97 68 94 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 68 97 68 94 / 0 20 10 0 Wink 66 100 67 98 / 0 20 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.