textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Medium (25% to 40%) shower/storm chances over parts of the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin this afternoon/evening, and again on Saturday, with higher chances Saturday.

- Following hazardous heat today for parts of the western higher terrain, slightly cooler temperatures this weekend will be followed by a renewed warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Mid to upper ridging persists for one more day today ahead of a cold front, before slightly cooler temperatures return to begin the weekend tomorrow behind the cold front. Highs rise into the 100F-105F range for much of the lowlands, 95F-100F range higher elevations, 105F-110F along the Pecos River Valley, for basins of Culberson County, and Presidio Valley, and up to 110F-115F for the Big Bend. Heat indices will rise up to 105F for parts of Eddy County and up to 95F for the Guadalupes, Davis, and Chinati Mountains, once again resulting in a Heat Advisory in effect for these regions from this afternoon through this evening. Proper safety heat precautions are encouraged, such as minimizing time spent outdoors during the hottest part of the day, remaining in air conditioned buildings, not leaving people or pets inside vehicles, postponing any outdoor activities to the early morning or evening is possible, and drinking plenty of water. Unlike yesterday, there will also be a 25% to 35% chance of storms over the SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin later this afternoon and this evening. This will occur as lift associated with a cold front developing south into the area and a disturbance aloft providing moisture convergence and forcing for ascent will allow for more convection. Despite this, high-res CAMs continue to indicate storm coverage should remain isolated to scattered. Main risks will be heavy rain, lightning, strong winds, and hail. Storms are likely to diminish with loss of daytime heating as east/southeast winds shift to northerly behind the cold front and lows settle into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F higher elevations and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin.

Cooler highs in the 90F-95F range, 85F-90F higher elevations, and and triple digits limited to along the Rio Grande and 105F-110F reading only for the Big Bend are expected Saturday with CAA behind Friday's cold front. With dew point temperatures increasing in the more humid air behind the cold front and continued disturbances providing lift and moisture, a 35% to 40% chance of showers/storms is in the forecast. High-res CAMs and PoP grids suggest the bulk of this activity will be over the SE NM plains into Culberson County and Upper Trans Pecos late Saturday afternoon through evening. No widespread severe weather is expected. Lows fall into the 65F-70F range, 70F-75F range along the Pecos River valley and southern and eastern parts of the forecast area Saturday night as storm activity diminishes and CAA persists. The cooler temperatures will give way to a warming trend next week. More details on that in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A relatively quiet weather pattern will return to the area as CAA fades, mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking and warming motion builds over the Intermountain West into Rockies once again, and near surface winds from the south/southeast transporting warmer air back into the area resume. With this quieter weather pattern, very low (<10%) shower/storm chances will mean the main story will be temperatures. However, grids show highs steady in the 100F-105F range for the lowlands and 95F-100F for higher elevations, with 105F- 110F readings confined to the Big Bend, while lows stay in the 70F- 75F range. Therefore, even with the warming trend, we are not currently expecting temperatures as warm as what we experienced late this week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A cold front is anticipated to arrive late this evening and overnight shifting breezy to strong winds (15-25 kts sustained with gusts up to 35 kts) to the north/northeast. The front will also bring scattered SHRA and -TSRA. Highest confidence in shower/storm development will be across HOB this evening into overnight tonight where brief MVFR/IFR VIS may occur.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 96 71 99 / 20 20 10 0 Carlsbad 74 97 71 98 / 10 20 40 0 Dryden 75 99 74 99 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 73 96 71 96 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 89 67 90 / 10 20 20 10 Hobbs 70 93 67 96 / 30 20 30 0 Marfa 66 92 64 91 / 0 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 95 71 97 / 10 20 10 0 Odessa 75 95 71 97 / 10 20 20 0 Wink 75 96 71 97 / 10 10 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.