textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two will impact the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may also result in flash flooding.

- Stronger northeasterly gap winds of at least 35 to 50 mph will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures return late this week into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper-level low lifting into western New Mexico this afternoon. Surface analysis shows an associated Pacific cold front pushing into southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Winds are veering southwesterly to westerly and becoming gusty with drier air behind the front this afternoon, while winds remain more southerly over the central/eastern Basin and southeasterly over the Trans Pecos ahead of this boundary. Shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the upper-level low will lift across southwest and west Texas late this afternoon into this evening, while the cold front eventually moves into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Satellite/radar shows cumulus growing upscale from portions of Eddy county and down into the Upper Trans Pecos ahead of the front as of 230 PM CDT, and we expect scattered storms to continue to develop into the Permian Basin/Trans Pecos through the afternoon. A few discrete cells may become capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this evening given ample instability/shear. A few of the CAMs have been bullish with the organization of a line of storms/QLCS from the southeast Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos during the evening. Forecast soundings also show some increase in low level storm relative helicity with an increasing low level jet over the eastern and southeastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the evening, so will need to watch for a low-end tornado potential with storms over these locations in addition to the damaging wind/hail threat. Storms may become more focused down into the Lower Trans Pecos/southeastern Big Bend overnight before storms exit to our east. Expect cooler temperatures in the 50s over western portions of the forecast area behind the front tonight, with lows in the 60s further east.

The upper low lifts into Kansas and opens into a trough that extends down into southwest Texas. Better moisture and lift becomes focused well to our east on Thursday, though a few sprinkles or very light showers cannot be entirely ruled out in southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas along the upper trough. Highs Thursday are currently forecast to range in the 70s and 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Northerly to northeasterly winds remain elevated around 15 mph, gusting up to 25 mph across much of the region with strongest winds to the west over the higher terrain behind the frontal passage overnight Thursday. High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 70s, with a potential for upper 60s in the higher terrain of northern Lea County and low 80s along the Rio Grande. PoPS are expected to increase to 30% - 40% spanning from the Guadalupes into the Lower Trans Pecos and in the northeast Permian Basin in the more humid air behind the cold front. Winds are expected to remain northerly to northeasterly allowing for overnight lows to drop to the 50s across much of the region with 40s in the higher terrain to the west and 60s along the river basins. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday, with slightly higher PoPs.

Mid to upper level ridging redeveloping to the west from late weekend to early next week will allows for a moderation in temperatures Sunday through early next week. Overnight lows are on Saturday are expected to remain similar to Friday night. Temperatures early next week are expected to slowly return to the mid 80s across much of the forecast area, with a potential for low 90s along the river basins, aided by returning southeasterly winds. However, as a result of the surface and mid level ridging offset from the forecast area, the risk for daily showers/storms remain each afternoon/evening, but timing, coverage, and rainfall amounts in any storms late weekend through early next week are uncertain at this time.

-Bynum

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through much of the period, except near MAF and FST due to an isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat this afternoon. If a storm does develop, gusty, erratic winds along with VIS reducing to MVFR/IFR is possible. Later this afternoon/evening, moderate to strong wind gusts are expected to precede the southward propagating cold front, before shifting to become more westerly to northwesterly after the passage of the front overnight and into tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 64 86 62 76 / 30 0 10 30 Carlsbad 57 79 59 72 / 0 0 20 30 Dryden 70 89 67 83 / 50 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 63 83 60 76 / 10 0 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 52 69 54 63 / 0 0 10 20 Hobbs 56 79 58 71 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 55 78 54 71 / 10 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 64 85 63 75 / 10 0 10 20 Odessa 64 84 63 75 / 10 0 10 20 Wink 61 84 62 77 / 0 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Borden-Glasscock-Howard- Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

NM...None.