textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend and into Monday, but a gradual cooling trend brings temperatures closer to normal Tuesday-Thursday next week.

- A few showers and thunderstorms will develop over western portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over much of the area this weekend into next week. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding and gusty winds will be the main threats with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The upper-level ridge will maintain its position over much of north Texas and the ArkLaTex region today. Dry and subsident conditions will hold strong over much of our forecast area along the western side of this feature through this afternoon. However, weak impulses in the S/SW flow aloft between the upper ridge centered to our east and an upper-level low/trough advancing over the western and northwestern states will translate over far west Texas into New Mexico this afternoon and evening. A weak surface boundary/trough axis should meanwhile stretch from far west Texas into portions of south central and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Convergence/ascent along these features should aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and southeast New Mexico plains late this afternoon into this evening. We will keep the highest POPs (mostly between 20-40%) focused along and to the northwest of a line from Van Horn to the Guadalupe Mountains National Park to Carlsbad to near Tatum after 6 PM MDT this evening, which is in line with consensus from the GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR models. Some of this activity could linger past midnight before gradually diminishing. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding. Highs today will continue to average about 5-10 degrees above normal with readings reaching into the mid to upper 90s for most places except in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the higher elevation areas and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will continue to range in the 60s to mid 70s.

The upper-level ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and shift further to the east over eastern portions of Texas and the adjacent ArkLaTex region. An increasingly moist southwesterly mid to upper level flow will develop over southeast New Mexico and much of southwest and west Texas along the western periphery of this feature and also ahead of the upper-level trough lifting over the Intermountain West. Atmospheric conditions will become more favorable to support the development of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over portions of the southeast New Mexico plains, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, Marfa Plateau, and into the Trans Pecos by Saturday afternoon. This activity may continue to develop/expand into the Big Bend, Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau, and portions of the Permian Basin by Saturday evening. We will maintain good (40-70%) chances of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region Saturday afternoon/evening. Some convection could linger into the overnight hours, especially down south over the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend. A deeply moist airmass with precipitable water values up to 1.4-1.7 inches and slow-moving and/or training storms could result in localized heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" in a short amount of time which could result in sporadic flash flooding over portions of the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. High DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG and the moist airmass may result in very localized strong to severe downburst winds with a few of the stronger storm cells Saturday. Afternoon highs will otherwise continue to remain very warm with readings reaching into the mid to upper 90s over most locations except in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the higher elevation areas and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A series of shortwave impulses will continue to translate across southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday into Sunday night. The axis of deeper moisture with precipitable water values remaining elevated between 1.2-1.5 inches will become oriented from the Big Bend/Davis Mountains to the Permian Basin, where isolated to scattered (POPs mostly between 20-50%) showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. A more unsettled weather pattern may take shape as we go into much of next week. Weak upper-level ridging may build back into our forecast area early next week but abundant deep layer moisture looks to remain in place across our region underneath this feature. A weak cold front may also advance into southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop across much of our region late Monday into Tuesday along this boundary. The NBM is aggressive as usual with POPs Monday night into Tuesday, but would expect at least scattered to locally numerous showers and storms to develop over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas if the boundary can stall in our forecast area during this time. Medium range model and ensemble guidance members also show a tap of rich moisture spreading north from Mexico into much of southwest/west Texas and southeast New Mexico along the western periphery of the ridge Wednesday into Thursday, which could support a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of our forecast area during the middle to latter part of the week. We will need to monitor for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential next week. Daytime highs should trend cooler back into the 80s for most of the region Tuesday-Thursday with overnight lows also trending cooler in the 60s for much of our region, except for perhaps a few readings in the 50s over the higher elevation areas, and lower 70s along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period with generally light southeast winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over portions of southeast NM late this afternoon into this evening but confidence remained too low to include TSRA mention at KCNM with this issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 40 Carlsbad 96 70 96 67 / 10 30 50 40 Dryden 95 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 95 71 97 71 / 0 0 30 50 Guadalupe Pass 88 66 86 65 / 10 30 50 50 Hobbs 93 69 94 67 / 0 10 40 50 Marfa 90 61 90 61 / 0 10 50 70 Midland Intl Airport 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 50 Odessa 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 50 Wink 97 73 97 72 / 0 0 30 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.