textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Very warm to hot temperatures with very low (less than 20%) shower/storm chances through the end of the week into the weekend and most of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the Four Corners into SE CO/OK and TX Panhandles persists through the end of the week. This sets up northeasterly flow aloft, evident early this morning on IR satellite imagery in northeast to southwest cloud motion. As core of ridging remains farther north of the area, so too will warmest temperatures. However, while highs once again rise to 100F-105F, 95F-100F higher elevations and Permian Basin, they are forecast to increase into the 105F-110F range not just for the Big Bend but also the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Despite upslope southeast flow (breezy at times this afternoon) near the surface, dew point temperatures will remain below 60F across the area, keeping heat indices from reaching heat advisory criteria. However, everyone is still encouraged to take proper heat safety precautions (take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and don't leave people or pets unattended in locked vehicles). Very low (<15%) shower/storm chances are possible again this afternoon and evening, but mainly over the far northern SE NM plains and leeward of the Sacramento Foothills. High-res CAMs do not show more than a few isolated storms at most, but any storms that do form will pose a risk of brief heavy rainfall, strong and variable winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Lows fall into the 70F-75F range, 75F-80F easternmost and southernmost parts of the area, and 65F-70F northern Lea County and much of the higher elevations. Tomorrow, similar high temperatures and heat risk are expected, with much lower PoPs near zero. Lows tomorrow night also fall to similar levels as tonight. Very warm to hot temperatures continue through the weekend into much of next week. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Mid to upper ridging remains firmly anchored over Four Corners to Southern High Plains vicinity through next week, maintaining northeast flow aloft and southerly winds at the surface. The large scale sinking motion and southerly winds transporting very warm to hot air into the area will continue the stretch of high temperatures above 90F everywhere, with large portions of the lowlands in the 100F-105F range and Big Bend continuously rising into the 105F-110F range. Dew point temperatures however do not look to increase significantly above 60F, so heat advisory criteria being met is not indicated at this time. However, everyone is still encouraged to take proper heat safety precautions. Low (10% to 30%) PoPs prevail through the middle of next week, with coverage, exact timing, and local impacts highly uncertain at this time. A pattern change with breakdown of ridging and more zonal flow late next week is hinted at in deterministic models. Therefore, late week into next weekend, slightly cooler temperatures and increased PoPs are indicated. As with any specific details about storms, exact temperature and precipitation pattern evolution still remains uncertain this far out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. An outflow boundary has brought variable winds across CNM and HOB, continuing the next couple of hours. Otherwise, easterly to southeasterly winds are expected across terminals today with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 70 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 101 71 100 71 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 96 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.