textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Patchy (locally dense) fog possible early this morning mainly across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans- Pecos due to increasing Gulf moisture. Visibilities may fall below 1/4 mile locally.

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon across portions of far west Texas, southeast New Mexico, and higher terrain.

- Numerous showers/storms are in store Thursday through Friday evening across mainly the eastern half of the region. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially across low-lying and urban areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, nighttime microphysics shows clear skies across most of the area. However, this is expected to change within the next few hours, thanks to increasing low-level moisture from the Gulf. This is forecast to develop low clouds across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos. Additionally, patchy fog can be expected early this morning across portions of these same areas. Isolated spots of dense fog may develop, reducing visibilities below 1/4 mile. Be sure to heed caution if you find yourself out during low visibilities! Surface heating shall mix out any fog that develops by mid-to-late morning. This afternoon, isolated convection is once again possible over/near the higher terrain of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico in the upslope flow regime. Otherwise, highs top out a few degrees above normal (upper 70s to low 80s for most) as thicknesses slightly increase.

The forecast begins to take a major change Thursday morning. Height falls associated with an upper-level shortwave trough and anomalously high moisture content from the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance bring rainfall across much of the region Thursday. Scattered to numerous coverage (50-90% chance) in showers and storms are forecast to start across the Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans-Pecos Thursday morning before advancing northward by early-to-mid afternoon. Climatologically speaking, precipitable water (PWAT) values well exceed the 90th percentile range across these same regions and the Permian Basin. This suggests an environment favorable for flash flooding, especially in locations where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur. Urban streets and low spots in hilly terrain are where the biggest concerns of considerable flash flooding may result. The overall severe weather threat remains low, but guidance indicates a brief window of opportunity for a storm or two becoming strong Thursday afternoon. Excessive water loading may produce gusty winds in the strongest of storms. The flash flood threat continues into the Long Term period and additional details regarding this event can be found in the Long Term discussion below.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak Thursday night into Friday morning across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico as the upper-level disturbance begins to advance across the area. By Friday evening/overnight, much of this activity departs to the north of our region. Throughout the event, the best rain chances are still over the eastern half of the area, specifically the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, where chances generally range between 80-90%. That being said, measurable rainfall chances across the whole area largely range from 60-80%. Some uncertainty still exists within guidance as to how much rain will fall. The highest chances for any given location seeing 1-2 inches of rain during the event continues to show up over the Lower Trans-Pecos and much of the Permian Basin (especially eastern and northern portions of the Basin). In general, ensembles depict lower rainfall totals for western/southwesternmost counties. Some models also depict the potential for a dry slot to develop as the system moves across the area, though where the associated localized rainfall minima may set up remains uncertain at this time. In any case, flash flooding is going to be our main concern throughout this timeframe for much of the region.

Aside from isolated remnant activity Saturday, most locations stay dry for Halloween as the system departs. By Sunday, another system nears the region from the south, while a larger trough dives down from the north. Out ahead of the first system, low (20-40%) rain chances develop once again across mainly the northern half of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. While the second system looks drier overall, it will bring with it a front and gusty winds by Monday and into Tuesday. Just how strong winds become, and how cool temperatures will be, depends on the track of the upper-level system and the strength of the front as it enters our area. Right now the NBM drops highs back into the 60s and low 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday, but plenty of model spread still exists, so stay tuned for updates! Otherwise, highs remain in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s most days through the Long Term (upper 60s and low 70s Friday thanks to increased cloud cover and rain).

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Latest CAMs and NBM suggest IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will be possible again for a few hours Wednesday morning, but only at KMAF/KHOB. Otherwise, a sparse cu field will be possible Wednesday afternoon, w/a few high clouds throughout the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 81 61 77 59 / 0 10 70 100 Carlsbad 82 58 76 56 / 20 10 30 90 Dryden 80 62 73 60 / 0 30 90 100 Fort Stockton 83 61 76 59 / 10 20 70 90 Guadalupe Pass 73 56 68 54 / 20 20 40 80 Hobbs 78 57 74 55 / 0 0 40 90 Marfa 77 53 69 52 / 20 20 90 90 Midland Intl Airport 79 61 75 59 / 0 10 70 100 Odessa 79 61 75 59 / 0 0 70 100 Wink 82 60 76 58 / 10 0 50 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.