textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New Mexico Plains through this morning.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler temperatures and rain chances to our area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Satellite and radar imagery as of 1:30 AM CDT shows light to moderate rain showers across portions of southeast New Mexico and far West Texas. A round of numerous to widespread showers/storms are expected mainly across southeast New Mexico later tonight as a shortwave trough moves through. This round looks to last through the morning and move quickly to the northeast still bringing the threat of flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit of rainfall over the past couple of days. Heading into this afternoon, southwesterly flow aloft and inverted surface troughing will provide additional showers and thunderstorms for similar areas. Less coverage of showers/storms are anticipated as favorable troughing lifts northeast of the region. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles, abundant deep-layer shear, "skinny" CAPE profiles, and continued high PWATs signal heavy rainfall and gusty winds with these storms. High resolution guidance seems to be overdoing instability parameters due to having cloud cover exiting the region very quickly. Plentiful moisture in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere will likely keep cloud cover throughout the morning to early afternoon hours, limiting strong daytime heating to occur. Most locations are forecast to stay in the 80s besides areas across the far eastern half of the region and river valleys being in the low 90s where less cloud coverage is expected.

Tonight, lingering isolated to scattered (10-30%) showers and storms from far west Texas and southeast New Mexico move eastward into portions of west Texas. Lows drop in the 60s to low 70s for most locations. Saturday, weak upper-level ridging begins to build back into the region, supplying warmer and drier conditions for most. Weak disturbances aloft combined with surface troughing and upslope flow induces isolated to widely scattered storm development during the afternoon/evening across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. High temperatures rebound back in the upper 80s to mid 90s regionwide. The warmer and drier weather pattern persists on Sunday before more active and cooler weather takes shape next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Weak upper-level ridging over the region will allow warmer and drier conditions to continue on Sunday. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations. A low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms is prevalent across the Davis Mountains, thanks to upslope winds. A more active weather pattern is in store beginning on Monday as another upper-level system approaches the area. Long-range guidance has what is going to be the remnants of Hurricane Polo, will eventually be pulled into the aforementioned system supplying more moisture to the region. As a result, areawide rain chances are expected by Monday night lasting through Wednesday. Ensemble guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near and even exceeding daily maximum climatological values Tuesday evening. Therefore, the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding returns. Uncertainty still remains in timing, positioning, and impacts of the potential heavy rainfall. We will continue to monitor this upcoming system closely. A Pacific front is forecast to move through the region sometime on Wednesday bringing breezy westerly winds and cooler temperatures spanning from the upper 70s to 80s. Drier and slightly warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) are expected behind the front Thursday and Friday.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

TSRA will continue to move across the SE NM terminals this morning with heavy RA reducing visibilities. Once this round of storms clears, VFR will return and prevail through the period. More storms are possible this afternoon, but confidence in location and timing remains low ATTM.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 70 94 70 / 10 20 10 20 Carlsbad 83 62 88 64 / 30 30 10 0 Dryden 92 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 89 70 92 69 / 30 20 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 76 62 80 63 / 50 20 10 0 Hobbs 82 65 89 65 / 40 20 0 0 Marfa 82 59 85 59 / 20 30 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 20 Odessa 87 71 91 71 / 20 20 10 20 Wink 87 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Lea- Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea.