textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through this weekend with near record heat possible today and Saturday. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if outdoors!

- Temperatures remain above normal through at least the middle part of next week, but begin to gradually cool.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough moving through the MS Valley, infringing upon what would otherwise be a broad ridge spanning the southern CONUS and areas south. However, said trough is not making a dent locally in temperatures, w/this afternoon's highs looking to top out ~ 12-14 F above climatology. The KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.63", which is around the 99th percentile. Unfortunately, other than residual boundaries from yesterday's convection, no triggers are evident to tap into this wasted moisture, other than orographic activity this afternoon invof the Davis Mountains.

Tonight, a strong LLJ of 40 kts is forecast to develop, and this will keep the boundary layer well-mixed. This will combine with a thin veil of high cloud to retard radiational cooling, resulting in perhaps the warmest night this forecast as minimums stall at almost 15 F above normal.

Tonight's warm lows will provide a head start to highs on Saturday, when thicknesses increase slightly over this afternoon, yielding the warmest day this forecast, and maybe even for the rest of the year, as highs top out an average of over 15 F above normal. W/this in mind, the upper Colorado River Valley looks to warrant a Heat Advisory. Areas to the west are on the fence, and we'll let the mid shift make the call on those. Isolated afternoon convection is possible invof the Davis Mountains.

Saturday night, the LLJ isn't forecast to redevelop quite as strong as tonight, and lows will be similar, but slightly cooler, than tonight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. Warmer than normal temperatures for mid September standards continue through next week. Sunday through Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast to persist in the mid 90s to lower 100s for most spots. This is thanks to upper-level ridging staying over the region. By Tuesday, the upper-level ridge shifts eastward due to upper-level troughing west and north of the region. As a result, temperatures begin a downward "cooling" trend beginning Tuesday lasting through the rest of the week. Highs will cool a few degrees where most locations span in the low to mid 90s. Rain and storm chances (20- 50%) increase west of the Pecos River and across southeast New Mexico for much of the work week. Diurnal heating, combined with surface troughing and shortwaves rounding the periphery of the ridge will provide the necessary ascent each afternoon and early evening.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, w/a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases ~ 8-9 kft AGL, and late Saturday morning, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL. Convection is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 104 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 104 74 101 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 76 103 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 74 98 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 71 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 73 103 73 98 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 64 94 64 92 / 10 30 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 102 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 77 102 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 105 76 100 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.