textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in store this afternoon and early evening. A storm or two may become strong to severe across the northern Permian Basin, posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.

- Daily afternoon/evening shower/storm chances with locally heavy rainfall and risk of flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions through this weekend into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Current radar imagery shows lingering showers and storms extending from the southern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos. This is thanks to an outflow boundary positioned over portions of far southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin. Expect these showers and storms to continue into the early morning hours and move east of the area. Today, southwest flow aloft, broad surface low pressure extending from the southern Rockies to far West Texas, and a surface boundary just north of the region will bring increased rain/storm chances (10- 40%) across much of the region. A storm or two may become strong to severe over portions of the northern Permian Basin this afternoon and early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient wind shear, and plenty of instability will pose a large hail and damaging wind threat for any strong storms that develop. Persistent heavy rainfall from training cells may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Tonight, a subtle upper-level ridge begins to build over the region. Lows are forecast to span in the 50s to mid 60s for most areas. Sunday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge supplies much drier conditions across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A low (10- 20%) chance for isolated storms exist over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon, thanks to upslope flow. Severe storms are not expected, though cannot rule out a damaging wind threat with the strongest storm. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across most locations during Memorial Day weekend.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An unsettled weather pattern from the end of this weekend into the middle of the week will be followed by a return to ridging and warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s F and lows in the 50s to 60s F, 70s F along the Rio Grande can be expected to begin next week, with daily 25% to 35% shower/storm chances over northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County and Lower Trans Pecos, with a few tenths of inch rainfall in heaviest storms. Humid, southeast upslope winds, up to 20 to 25 mph over western higher terrain during the afternoon, will persist as a diffuse dryline oscillates over W TX into SE NM, separating more humid air to the east (characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 40s F to lower 60s F), and drier air to the west (characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 20s F to lower 40s F). A closed mid to upper trough is still expected to influence the forecast area from Monday afternoon into Wednesday next week, with cooler air aloft coupled with daytime heating resulting in instability conducive to 45% to 65% shower/storm chances Monday evening for the SE NM plains into Presidio Valley, and 55% to 70% shower/storm chances Tuesday afternoon/evening along and northeast of the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos. Not only will this keep highs down in the 80s F for most of the area, but it will result in widespread rainfall at least 0.25" to 0.50", with eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau having a 25% to 45% chance of rainfall amounts up to 1" in heaviest storms. Some risk for damaging winds and hail in the strongest storms may be present, but the primary risk with any stronger storms will be flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions. Temperatures increase back into the mid 80s F to lower 90s F Wednesday and into the upper 80s F to mid 90s F by the end of next week as upper ridging builds back in and larger scale sinking and warming motion suppresses cloud and shower/storm development such that only a stray (5% to 15%) chance of daytime showers/storms remains over northern and eastern parts of the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions and generally light southerly to southeasterly winds prevail through the period. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across eastern and southern portions of the area. PROB30s for TS have been maintained at MAF and FST, and have been introduced at HOB as well for this afternoon. Guidance continues to indicate gusty winds will briefly develop at all terminals this evening before becoming light again overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 61 87 62 / 30 20 0 0 Carlsbad 93 60 94 62 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 90 64 89 65 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 61 91 62 / 30 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 83 60 85 62 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 91 57 90 58 / 20 10 20 10 Marfa 84 51 87 51 / 20 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 62 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Odessa 89 62 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Wink 93 62 92 63 / 20 10 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.