textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- A cold front brings the threat for the first freeze of the season for portions of SE NM and the higher terrain early Saturday morning. - Windy conditions continue behind the cold front through this evening. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

- Monitoring for low (10-40%) rain chances across our western counties by the middle of next week. More details to come in subsequent forecast packages.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

What a difference 24 hours makes. A strong cold front has pushed all the way past the river, advecting in very dry air and drying out the column. As such, any remaining shower activity should be confined to the Presidio Valley, and diminishing rapidly. Post- frontal winds have been quite blustery, and current warnings/advisories handle the situation well. CAA behind the front puts this afternoon's highs a good ~ 15 F below what they were yesterday.

Tonight, as gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat under clearing skies, temperatures will plummet to the coldest yet this Fall, averaging over 10 F below climatology. A few areas in the mountains and Southeast New Mexico could even hit the freeze mark before diurnal heating commences Saturday, and we've upgraded the freeze watch to a warning.

Saturday, CAA continues, resulting in highs very similar to today's. Fortunately, surface winds begin veering.

These winds will veer back to return flow Saturday night, halting the CAA, and keeping overnight minimums a couple of degrees warmer than tonight's.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Southerly return flow and clear skies allow for tempertures to rise into the 60s for most on Sunday. A warming trend continues through the end next week as Gulf moisture moves back into our area. Chances of rain (10-40%) return by midweek from the west due to upslope flow and embedded shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft. By the latter half of the week, guidance shows more widespread chances of rain as an upper trough approaches the region and potentially increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. However, there is much uncertainty in rain coverage and amounts at this time. This will depend on the track of the trough and moisture quality. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends and details shall become more clear in the coming days. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Blustery north winds will continue this afternoon, before gradients relax and winds decouple somewhat after sundown. Clouds will gradually diminish. Light winds will veer to east Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 39 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 43 58 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 57 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 53 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 32 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 55 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 58 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 37 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 37 60 40 67 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for Central Lea- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.