textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Isolated to scattered storm chances exist this afternoon, mainly across the Davis Mountains.

- Cold front approaches the region on Sunday bringing higher rain chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by the middle of next week with many locations experiencing their first 100 degree day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Current radar shows a few showers and thunderstorms developing in the Davis Mountains this afternoon. CAMs have handled this well and indicate that convection this afternoon will be less than that seen yesterday. Rain out west diminishes after dark and we then shift our focus to the north as a cold front slowly moves into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. An upper disturbance will cause storms to fire along the front to our north, and the rain will stay closely associated with the front as they move south together.

Sunday will be cooler regardless of whether the front arrives before peak heating or not. Increasing clouds and showers, along with more easterly flow advecting in cooler gulf air will shave several degrees off today's highs, especially across the northern Permian Basin. The QPF is not overly impressive with storm total precipitation totals only showing 0.25-0.50" so do not anticipate needing a Flood Watch at this time though it should be stressed that it is certainly possible isolated areas of flooding will be possible and everyone should remain alert for.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The main area of showers and storms shifts south Sunday night and into Monday along with the surface cold front. Abundant moisture will continue rain chances in the Permian Basin but the heavier rainfall will more likely be in the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. High pressure building in behind the front on Monday gives well below normal temperatures, mainly in the 80s with only a few 90s along the Rio Grande.

Rain moves south of the area on Tuesday as the cold front reaches south central Texas and a return of southerly winds brings highs back into the 90s, though still slightly below normal. Below normal temps abruptly end Wednesday as high pressure along the western U.S./Mexico border builds east. Models have been consistently showing Wednesday and Thursday would be dry with many locations seeing their first 100 degree day of the summer season. This has been a cool start to our summer and it had to come to an end some time, it appears Wednesday is that day. Given the cool start to the summer, some may not be acclimated to the hotter temperatures expected so despite temps not quite reaching Heat Advisory criteria, everyone should be alert for the potential for heat stress.

Hennig

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Main concerns next 24 hours will be cigs and convection, especially north, as a late-spring cold front pushed into the area Sunday afternoon. Prior to this, surface winds will begin backing, advecting in MVFR stratus beginning late Sunday morning KMAF/KHOB/KCNM. These cigs should scatter out by late afternoon. The approaching front will combine w/easterly upslope flow to increase convective chances Sunday afternoon, mainly KCNM/KHOB, but also to a lesser extent KINK/KPEQ.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 88 65 81 / 0 30 50 60 Carlsbad 71 89 64 84 / 10 60 80 40 Dryden 73 96 72 87 / 0 10 60 80 Fort Stockton 71 94 67 84 / 0 30 60 80 Guadalupe Pass 70 83 64 78 / 0 50 80 30 Hobbs 68 84 61 81 / 10 60 60 50 Marfa 61 90 59 82 / 0 50 40 80 Midland Intl Airport 72 89 66 81 / 0 30 50 60 Odessa 72 90 66 81 / 0 40 50 60 Wink 72 92 66 84 / 0 40 60 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.