textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Temperatures remain well above normal through the weekend, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures start to cool relative to this weekend by the early to middle parts of next week, though they still remain above normal.

- Low (generally 20-40%) rain chances return to mainly eastern portions of the area towards the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Water Vapor Imagery shows a ridge of high pressure located off the coast of Baja, putting our area under northwest flow aloft. This northwest flow aloft is expected to continue though the short term period, keeping temperatures approximately 15-20 degrees above normal regionwide. Afternoon highs Friday top out in the low-to-mid 80s for most, except 90s in the Big Bend and mid-to-upper 70s in higher terrain/central and northern Lea County in southeast New Mexico. Temperatures top out 3-5 degrees warmer Saturday afternoon as the upper-level ridge axis shifts east, with near-record temperatures in the forecast once again. For reference, the current standing record high at Midland International Air and Space Port (MAF) is 87F, which was set back in 1947. Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Temperatures similar to Saturday continue Sunday morning and afternoon, albeit a couple of degrees warmer as the upper-level ridge continues to be the primary influence on our weather. In fact, much like Saturday highs on Sunday could approach record territory. Our current forecasted high at KMAF is 89 degrees, which would tie the previous record. Meanwhile, the latest run of the NBM depicts a 70% chance of KMAF reaching or exceeding this temperature Sunday afternoon. Highs across the rest of the area top out in the upper 80s and low 90s as well.

By Monday, an upper-level trough begins to dampen the ridge and push it away from our area. One point of uncertainty that persists pertains to a front that looks to push southward towards our area. The latest GFS still depicts this front moving into northern portions of the area before stalling out. Meanwhile, the European has tended to keep it farther north, and therefore maintains much warmer temperatures Monday. Given the large amount of spread in Monday's highs, our current forecast depicts a middle ground between the warmer and cooler scenarios, and will continue to be refined in future forecast cycles. In either case, warm temperatures can be expected again Tuesday and winds become breezy as they shift southwesterly ahead of the incoming trough. The next big question pertains to precipitation chances with this system. Currently, we have low chances (20-40%) spanning from Tuesday through the middle of the week, with the "best" chances showing up Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, quite a bit of uncertainty is evident amongst ensemble members as far as timing and coverage goes. Both the latest GFS and European also indicate the potential for large portions of the area to end up dry as the best lift with this system trends farther north and east. In any case, right now ensembles do show better agreement that the far eastern Permian Basin would have the (relatively) best chance of seeing rain. Another trough may give us another shot at rain during the latter portion of the week as well. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends for both of these systems, so stay tuned for updates! Otherwise, temperatures remain above normal through the extended, albeit not quite as warm as this weekend.

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a high cloud or two. Post-frontal winds will generally veer back to return flow, but will be light enough to be variable at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 81 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 83 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 84 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 84 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 76 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 80 48 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 81 44 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 81 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 81 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 82 49 88 51 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.