textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Isolated storms continue today across portions of the Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West Texas. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats with the strongest storms.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows that the ridge that's been dominating the southeastern CONUS the last few days has developed substantially west over the past 24 hours, even more so than previous model runs depicted. There now appears to be a secondary height maxima directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, which will likely result in warmer afternoon highs than previously forecast as well. A dearth of clouds will assist. In spite of all this, 12Z GFS soundings suggest convective temps will reached in the east this afternoon, spawning a cu field there, and possibly to a lesser extent in the west. The aforementioned ridging will limit further development somewhat, but orographically influences in the Davis/Guadalupe Mountains could beget a storm or two before the afternoon is out.

Tonight, as has been and will be the case through the extended, overnight minimums will remain unseasonably warm as a 35 kt LLJ redevelops, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed. In addition high clouds are expected to increase from the southwest, retarding radiational cooling. Unfortunately, this morning's lows may have been the coolest temperatures we'll experience through at least next Saturday.

For Independence Day, the HREF and other models are in agreement in strengthening the ridge overhead, adding a couple of degrees to today's highs. This would put highs ~ 5-7 F above climatology, although heat indices should be a little lower due to lower relative humidity. Under this subsidence, convection will be hard to come by, as reflected in the CAMs.

Saturday night, overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, only a degree or two warmer.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Ridging continues to build just to the west of our area through the extended forecast. As a result, temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s to a few degrees above the century mark can be expected from Sunday through the end of the period. Rain chances in the 10-30% range are maintained for the western higher terrain (mainly the Davis Mountains) most days in the extended thanks to upslope flow. Chances elsewhere have continued to trend lower thanks to subsidence from the ridge. However, disturbances in the northeasterly flow aloft allow for very low evening rain chances (10-20%) to persist in northernmost and easternmost portions of our area at least early next week. The main difference between this forecast package and the previous one is that highs have trended a degree or two warmer most days thanks to a slight eastward expansion of the ridge/an increase in thicknesses over the area.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a few cu and high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.