textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through the week.

- The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding, especially south of the I-20 Corridor.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The moisture finally arrived yesterday as we saw scattered showers and storms develop. Activity increases today and tomorrow as a weak disturbance moves into West Texas. The disturbance will be slow to move out due to weak steering flow. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Currently, the threat does not appear widespread enough to issue a flood watch but we will continue to monitor for the need. Increased clouds and rainfall keep highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, unseasonably cool for mid July.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The end of the week is a continuation of the short term. Large high pressure remains well north of the CWA providing little subsidence to cap convection. A deep southeasterly flow from the gulf continues advecting moisture into West Texas and eastern New Mexico and daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere enough to provide good rainfall chances. Models are showing convection over Central Texas creates and MCV that slowly moves west late in the week. This creates additional instability and rain chances become high (>60%) in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern, especially in the Davis Mountains and along the Rio Grande where many summer vacationers will be camping near flood prone areas. Clouds and rain continue below normal temperatures as highs remain in the 80s through the end of the week. A drier and warmer trend begins early next week bringing conditions more climatologically normal.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will be predominant across the TAF sites the next 24 hours. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible in heavier showers moving across the sites but should be short lived. A tropical air mass may limit the lightning activity today though any of the TAF sites could see SHRA mainly from 18-06Z. TS will be more limited.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 69 85 67 / 60 20 70 30 Carlsbad 88 67 87 67 / 40 20 60 20 Dryden 88 70 87 67 / 70 50 80 60 Fort Stockton 85 67 83 65 / 80 50 90 30 Guadalupe Pass 80 64 79 63 / 50 20 60 10 Hobbs 87 65 85 64 / 40 20 60 10 Marfa 79 59 78 56 / 80 40 90 30 Midland Intl Airport 86 68 84 66 / 70 20 70 20 Odessa 86 68 84 66 / 70 20 70 20 Wink 87 68 86 66 / 50 20 70 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.