textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- An approaching system will bring increasing rain and storm chances this evening through Tuesday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Warmer temperatures can be expected today and Tuesday before cooler conditions return behind a cold front on Wednesday and Thursday. The warmth returns Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current observations show moisture surging back west tonight with dewpoints in the 50s seen up the Pecos River valley and into southeastern New Mexico. In addition, a low cloud deck is moving into the Permian Basin and temperatures could hold in the lower 60s this morning. South to southwesterly winds aided by the warmth this morning brings much warmer temperatures to the area today. Highs reach the 80s for most which is about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Southerly winds keep overnight temperatures elevated tonight setting the stage for another unseasonably warm day Tuesday. An increase in cloud cover may reduce temps a few degrees but it will still be above normal.

The radar is quiet this morning and should remain so through early this afternoon due to the presence of an upper ridge. The ridge moves east this evening and increasing instability from an approaching low could allow for isolated showers this evening generally west of the Pecos River. Rain chances increase through tomorrow when a dryline develops in the Permian Basin serving as a focus for convergence and lift. The highest rain chances will be east of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin, western Low Rolling Plains, and lower Trans Pecos. Cannot rule out a storm or two could become marginally severe.

Hennig

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The storms move east Tuesday evening as the upper low moves east into Central Texas, beginning a period of dry weather that persists into the weekend. A cold front moves through Wednesday bringing temperatures back down closer to normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 70s and quite pleasant. Afterward, westerly zonal flow develops and remains into the weekend. Downsloping winds quickly warm temperatures into the upper 80s with some 90s possible. This could be the warmest temperatures of the year so far. A trough develops over the Great Lakes over the weekend that may push a cold front through early next week. Lift and moisture will be too far north for any rain to develop in our CWA, but a cold front could at least bring temps back down to near normal.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR is forecast to remain prevalent across the region through the period. There could be a brief period of patchy fog with visibility reductions to MVFR to IFR thresholds around KHOB again early Tuesday morning but confidence was low enough to keep mention out of the TAF. Winds will shift S/SW and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts over 25 knots by the end of this TAF period late Tuesday morning. Potential for stronger southwesterly to westerly winds over most terminals by Tuesday afternoon, along with scattered TSRA over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 60 83 51 / 0 10 60 40 Carlsbad 84 50 76 52 / 0 20 30 0 Dryden 82 61 86 56 / 20 20 50 30 Fort Stockton 86 61 83 54 / 10 20 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 75 51 63 46 / 0 20 30 0 Hobbs 82 53 78 48 / 0 20 30 10 Marfa 79 44 72 39 / 20 20 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 84 60 82 52 / 0 10 40 20 Odessa 83 60 81 52 / 0 20 40 20 Wink 83 56 79 51 / 0 20 30 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Tuesday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains.