textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, especially Guadalupe Pass.

- A cold front is pushing through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today, and will result in the coolest day since last May, and the best chances for rain through next week.

- A gradual warming trend is in store through midweek next week. However, hgihs will remain in the 80s or lower most locations. Rain chances after this weekend will be minimal, and confined generally to the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For those who prefer cooler, wetter weather, today is your day. WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough directly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the surface, a Pac front moved through the area yesterday, keeping temperatures cool, but a cold front is on its heels this morning, moving through the area and veering surface winds to northeast. A few hours of high gap winds are possible through Guadalupe Pass, but this looks like a marginal event, and not as strong as models were portending a few days ago. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures since late May earlier this year. Afternoon highs should come in ~ 8-10 F below normal, making today the coolest day this forecast. If MOS is to be believed, even these highs may be too high. To assist in these cooler temperatures will be upslope flow, maintaining a low overcast and a chance of mainly showers and a few embedded thunderstorms in weak isentropic upglide. Unfortunately, today looks to be the best chance of rain this forecast, so areas that miss out today will probably stay dry for the next 8-10 days.

Tonight, CAA continues, and despite persistent cloud cover, overnight minimums will likewise be the coldest this forecast, settling into the 50s most locations...around 2-4 F above climatology. Best chances of convection will remain in the lee of the mountains due to upslope flow.

Saturday, the upper trough remains anchored in place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Highs may moderate a degree or two, but conditions will not change much under persistent overcast and northeast winds going light/variable as they begin veering to east. Best chances for showers will be invof the old frontal boundary to the south.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The extended forecast reamins rather pedestrian, as most of the noteworthy changes are frontloaded into the short term. By Sunday afternoon, the upper ridge over SoCal is forecast to meander eastward to the Four Corners, nudging the upper trough east. This will result in a gradual increase in thicknesses/temperatures through midweek or so, when highs top out Wednesday afternoon ~ 7-9 F above normal. Despite this increase, highs will still be in the 80s most locations. Absent any triggers in the synoptic pattern, as well as cold fronts, rain chances will be hard to come by, and restricted away from the ridge to the mountains in the south. Even so, chances remain minimal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR cigs will prevail next 24 hours in brisk N-NE flow, gusty at times. NBM and forecast soundings suggest KHOB may see a few hours of IFR cigs this morning. Northeasterly upslope flow may result in a few -SHRA, and we've made a mention KFST/KCNM/KPEQ. Frequent updates likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 57 76 59 / 20 20 20 10 Carlsbad 69 56 74 55 / 60 30 10 0 Dryden 83 61 75 62 / 10 50 50 40 Fort Stockton 76 56 73 57 / 40 50 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 62 51 66 53 / 50 30 10 0 Hobbs 68 53 74 55 / 40 20 0 0 Marfa 71 51 70 52 / 30 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 58 76 60 / 20 20 10 10 Odessa 74 58 76 61 / 30 10 10 10 Wink 75 57 76 59 / 40 20 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.