textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Temperatures remain well above normal through the early part of the week, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures gradually cool by the middle of the week through the weekend. Meanwhile, rain chances increase for mainly eastern portions of the area mid-week and into the weekend (generally 20-50% chances).

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 136 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level high located over Mexico and a weak trough centered over the Oregon/California coast, placing our area under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Meanwhile, the latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front draped across eastern New Mexico and into north Texas. This front is expected to move further south throughout the night, but will stall somewhere in the Permian Basin. How far south the front travels before it stalls remains in question. Increased cloud cover is expected to come with it and sunny to mostly sunny skies are maintained further south and west. Given the anticipated cold front, we are no longer forecasting record-high temperatures for KMAF today (though observed high may only come a few degrees shy than previous record and other locations may be closer).

Increased cloud cover and breezy winds (especially across portions of the southeastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos) yield overnight lows in the 50s for most. The aforementioned cold front retreats back to the north on Tuesday and winds veer southerly to southwesterly, allowing for temperatures to top out closer to record territory once again. For reference, the previous record at KMAF is 89F, set back in 1974 (current forecast is 89F, but may come up a little shy due to some mid-to-high-level clouds). Breezy conditions are expected to remain across the western high terrain as an upper- level trough skirts over our far northern zones and a dryline sets up from southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend, allowing for daytime mixing to transfer momentum to the surface. Forecast soundings support this as they depict a steep "inverted-V" profile. With that said, rain chances remain absent from the short term forecast. Greening

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 136 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weak front sneaks into west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday morning. Highs drop relative to Tuesday (mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s for most locations), but nevertheless remain roughly 5- 10 degrees above seasonal norms. During this time, an upper-level system will be traversing across the Central and Southern Plains. It still appears the best lift and moisture will be outside of our area, so only low (10-30%) PoPs are maintained for our easternmost counties (which are relatively closer to the better moisture).

Upper-level troughing becomes the dominant feature over the western CONUS late in the week and into the weekend. A developing surface low in the lee of the Rockies yields breezy southeasterly to southerly winds for the eastern half of the area Thursday, along with breezy southwesterly winds for the western half. The return flow over the eastern half of the area pushes low-level moisture a bit further west, while the southwesterly winds over the western half of the region keeps those locations drier. As a result, rain chances increase across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos Thursday afternoon and overnight (20-50% chances, with the best chances in our far northeastern counties). Meanwhile, we will have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions out west given the dry and breezy conditions. In general, precipitation chances wane Friday, but the proximity of troughing aloft, coupled with an incoming front Saturday, once again results in increasing rain chances over the weekend. The best chances (generally 30-50%) will yet again be located over eastern portions of the area, but at this time low chances (mainly 10-30%) extend further west towards southeast New Mexico and the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains given the more widespread lift. However, the main point of uncertainty continues to be just how far west favorable moisture ends up. Naturally, that is something we will continue to monitor! Otherwise, temperatures this weekend fall near to below normal behind the front (highs in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s).

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Northerly to northeasterly winds become southerly to southeasterly between 18Z and 21Z this afternoon. Winds will be relatively light through most of this TAF period, except for at KFST where winds could become gusty around 25kts after 00Z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 80 55 88 55 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 86 50 90 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 86 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 90 58 92 56 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 55 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 51 89 45 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 89 47 85 45 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 57 89 55 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 84 57 89 55 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 86 54 91 50 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.