textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs pushing up to 115 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The worst of the heat will temporarily be behind us this weekend as mid-level troughing deepens over the northern Rockies. Highs today rise into the 100-105F range in the lowlands while highs only reach the 90F- 95F range over higher elevations, with a small chance (<20%) of highs approaching 105F-110F for the Pecos River valley. Still, prolonged 105F-110F temperatures (110F-115F again present over the Big Bend) and heat indices will be confined to lower Brewster County. This has prompted Heat Advisories for this region today, including Big Bend National Park. Practice proper heat safety and seek shade when possible if outdoors. Even with cooler temperatures, PWATs remain above 75th percentile for this time of year (>1.25"), so it will still feel humid and difficult to cool off outside, especially in direct sunlight. Prolonged higher humidity despite capping again yields isolated to scattered 10% to 30% storm chances over the Marfa Plateau from heated elevated terrain interacting with lee troughing. Breakdown of ridging and weak steering flow aloft continue to produce low predictability in forecasting location of storms. Best chances will be over the Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau as passing disturbances focusing lift and moisture interact with near surface features. SPC has outlooked the Marfa Plateau into Permian Basin in a MRGL risk today. DCAPE again rises above 1000 J/kg on model soundings, while low to mid-levels show higher RH than previous days. Therefore, strongest storms continue to pose a risk for damaging winds (70 mph or more in longer-lived storms), although heavy rain and/or small hail with flash flooding in heaviest storms will become more of a concern. Strengthening lee troughing later today again increases south/southeast winds in a LLJ from evening into overnight, limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 70F-75F range, 75F-80F in warmer spots and 60F-65F for Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.

Tomorrow same trend: "cooler" air temperatures but we keep the moisture. If anything it will feel just as humid as today and heat stress will remain high as PWATs and therefore humidity of overall air column remain above normal. Winds become southwest west of the strengthening lee trough/dryline tomorrow, southwest of the Pecos River into northwest Permian Basin. Highs remain similar to today over higher elevations, but only rise into the 100F-105F range in the lowlands and Presidio Valley and Terrell County, with 110F-115F readings restricted to the Big Bend. As a result, Heat Advisories may only be needed for the southernmost Rio Grande valleys tomorrow. Model soundings and placement of disturbances aloft over and downstream of higher terrain again suggest highest chances of isolated storms over the Marfa Plateau extending into the SE NM plains and Permian Basin, with main risks being damaging winds and heavy rain as PWATs continue to increase with sustained southeast winds east of the dryline and steering flow aloft remains weak. Lows change little from Saturday night, maybe a few degrees for the western higher terrain into Presidio Valley as a result of slightly cooler daytime highs. PWATs and rain chances continue to increase into early next week, with a signal for heavy rain and flash flooding apparent over the Marfa Plateau. More details on this can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions outside of MVFR or lower conditions in storms. Held off on mentioning storms in TAFs due to low (10% to 30%) chance and coverage of storms and uncertainty in location of storms. Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts for terminals on the Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos from beginning of period through 01Z-06Z, with south/southeast winds 15 to 20 knots for terminals to the east and southeast. Winds for terminals on the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos decrease below 10 to 15 knots 06Z-10Z Sunday and shift to southwest through the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 102 76 100 / 10 20 10 10 Carlsbad 75 103 74 100 / 20 20 20 20 Dryden 76 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 101 74 97 / 10 20 20 60 Guadalupe Pass 72 92 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 Hobbs 72 101 72 97 / 20 20 20 20 Marfa 65 93 63 90 / 20 30 40 60 Midland Intl Airport 76 100 75 97 / 20 20 20 30 Odessa 76 100 75 97 / 20 20 20 40 Wink 76 103 75 100 / 20 20 20 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster- Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.