textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Light to moderate rain showers south of I-20 will taper off to the east this morning. Rain could briefly changeover to a rain/snow mix, or even snow, as the storm system passes through the area. However, little to now snow accumulations are expected.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal by Thursday afternoon, before a cold front arrives Thursday night/Friday to take temperatures closer to normal into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough just southwest of the Presidio Valley. Ahead of this, area radars show a wide swath of light precipitation extending from the Davis Mountains through the lower Trans Pecos. The big winner over the last 24 hours looks to be Castolon, where the mesonet there has reported 0.39" of precipitation. A glance at all available observations down the over the past 24 hours suggests the NBM was too cold, as most observations were liquid. The once exception is KMRF, which has been reporting UP off an on. W/this in mind, hi-res models/HREF take the cold core trough through the Big Bend Area and into central Texas by 00Z Wednesday. A brief changeover to -RASN or just -SN cannot be ruled out as the trough passes, but with overcast skies retarding radiational cooling, and no source of CAA, current temperatures (upper 30s to lower 40s) won't drop much more overnight, as current precip likely won't leave much more room for wet-bulbing. Overnight minimums should come in ~ 3-4 F warmer than last night, 3-5 F above climatology. In addition, soil temperatures are too warm to allow much, if any, accumulations.

As mentioned above, the trough will move into central Texas today, w/hi-res models consistently tapering off precipitation by around 18Z. Overcast skies will scatter out NW-SE, and will combine with light SW-W winds to ramp up thicknesses, adding 8-10 F to yesterday's highs and warming highs back to above normal everywhere but the Presidio Valley, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend Area.

Tonight, winds will begin backing ahead of an approaching cold front. Mostly clear skies will promote radiational cooling, but mixing from increased winds aloft will negate much of this, resulting in overnight lows averaging maybe a degree warmer than this morning.

Wednesday, under dry, northwest flow aloft, the aforementioned cold front arrives, although it's rather weak. Skies will be mostly clear, with insolation counteracting the front, and highs increasing only a couple of degrees over today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over west Texas and southeast New Mexico late this week and into the early part of next week. Dry weather conditions will continue through the extended forecast period. A surface lee trough will take shape over eastern New Mexico and west Texas by Thursday afternoon, allowing for a return of southwesterly winds and slightly warmer temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees over most of the region. Another cold front still looks to push into the area by Friday. Highs on Friday afternoon should trend cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s over most of the area, except low to mid 50s in the mountains and upper 60s to lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Lows by Friday night will also trend colder in the mid 20s to mid 30s across most of the forecast area. Highs and lows should remain similar each day Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs will persist for a few hours KFST, before scattering out to VFR late morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be light/variable, but generally out of the west, backing slightly tonight w/the approach of a cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 36 62 32 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 61 38 67 37 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 60 37 62 36 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 36 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 55 25 57 25 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 38 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 60 38 62 35 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 61 33 63 32 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.