textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Strong southwest winds over the Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos, and SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin will lead to critical to near critical fire weather conditions and patchy blowing dust reducing visibilities for these regions.

- A low to medium (25% to 35%) chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe storms with main threats being large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain developing this evening over the eastern Permian Basin.

- Another 25% to 35% chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms, some strong to severe on Friday for the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Main threats will again be large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Strong winds west of a dryline this afternoon and showers/storms, some strong to severe, this afternoon/evening, are forecast today. Scattered to broken cloud cover drifting west to east will give way to showers by late afternoon leeward of the western higher terrain and the Lower Trans Pecos. 1 hr PoPs increase from 15% in the afternoon into the 30% to 45% range by evening over the northeast Permian Basin into southeast Permian Basin, eastern Stockton Plateau, and northern Terrell County. This is when isolated to scattered storms, some strong, are expected to develop. Main threats in strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds given low RH <50% at the surface. Where heaviest and most persistent storms occur, regions impacted could see 0.50" to 0.75" of rainfall - with up to 1.00" or more indicated for some locations in the southeast Permian Basin, where 6 hour PoPs increase into the 60% to 80% range. West of a dryline situated from the central Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos and down into the Big Bend, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph - sustained higher speeds and gusts for higher terrain - are forecast this afternoon into midnight tonight. These downsloping winds will generate patchy blowing dust reducing visibilities, and keep temperatures late spring-like in the mid 80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations. Cooler and drier air moves in tonight behind the upper air disturbance aiding today's strong winds and shower/storm chances. This allows lows to fall into the 50s and 60s F, 40s F higher elevations and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin. Tomorrow, drier weather persists as the dryline surges east of the central Permian Basin and Big Bend in the afternoon. West winds shift back to southwest and gust up to 35 mph west of the dryline. Cooler air behind today's disturbance keeps highs tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today, lower to mid 80s F, 70s F higher elevations. Winds back to southerly tomorrow evening ahead of the next mid to upper disturbance as the dryline retrogrades into far western portions of the area, and more humid air/increased boundary layer moisture advances west. The increased moisture will limit overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 50s and 60s F apart from 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Another chance of strong to severe storms for the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County is forecast Friday, while strong westerly winds shifting to northeasterly and remaining strong through Saturday maintain fire weather conditions - before cooler temperatures and lighter winds lead to calmer conditions to end the weekend and begin next week. Temperatures rise back into the mid 80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations Friday. Southerly winds veer back to southwesterly and then increase in association with the approaching disturbance. Lift and moisture accompanying the disturbance will again aid shower/storm formation east of the dryline, which will set up from the Presidio Valley into Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian Basin. A 25% to 30% 1 hr probability of showers is apparent in NBM guidance over the eastern Permian Basin by early afternoon, before increased lift accompanying a strong cold front developing in from the northwest increases development of isolated to scattered storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County by late afternoon/evening, continuing into the overnight. Main threats with stronger storms are again expected to be large hail and damaging winds. Regions impacted by heavier or more persistent storms may again see locally heavy rain up to at least 0.25" to 0.50". Cooler weather moves in Friday night through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and 70s F and lows in the 30s and 40s F for most of the area. However, gusty winds and a 25% to 40% chance of showers/storms lingers southwest of the Pecos River Saturday behind the cold front. Highest 6 hr PoPs 45% to 60% for the Presidio Valley into Big Bend expected Sunday morning through Sunday night, with persistent clouds and rain chances lingering even after northeast winds decrease Sunday. Weak ridging aloft early next week will lead to a gradual warming trend and drier weather once more, but high and low temperatures stay seasonable for early April.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Southwest winds have begun to increase across area terminals and we will see this trend continue through mid-late afternoon. Highest gusts will peak around 40kt at CNM and HOB, with lower gusts around 25kt at other terminals. This could lead to areas of low vis due to blowing dust but will hold off on adding into the TAF for now. Expect winds to diminish to 10kt or less by 03-06Z. Some light activity has developed over/near SE NM sites but don't think any precip is making it to the ground. Later this afternoon or early evening, thunderstorms could develop across West Texas, potentially affecting MAF and FST. Will continue to monitor radar trends and amend TAFs to add mention of TS if needed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this afternoon through this evening. ERCs remain above the 75th percentile for much of the area, especially west of the Pecos River and Southeast New Mexico. Despite min RHs in the 15 to 20% range, southwest winds between 30 to 40 mph, dry fuels, and high temperatures at least 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average yield near critical to critical fire weather conditions today. 20-ft winds decrease Thursday but remain at or above 20 miles per hour for the Guadalupes into Southeast New Mexico, while min RHs less than critical 15% return. Therefore, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are again expected for Southeast New Mexico and western higher terrain of West Texas into the northwest Permian Basin on Thursday. Strong 20-ft winds 20 miles per hour or more west of a dryline Friday and behind a cold front Saturday maintain elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the western higher terrain and surrounding foothills. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week are then expected to decrease fire risk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 87 61 87 / 40 0 0 40 Carlsbad 53 86 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 62 88 64 87 / 50 0 0 40 Fort Stockton 59 88 61 88 / 30 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 52 75 55 78 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 49 84 52 87 / 20 0 0 10 Marfa 47 80 46 83 / 10 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 57 86 62 87 / 30 0 0 30 Odessa 57 85 62 87 / 30 0 0 30 Wink 54 87 57 89 / 20 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.