textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Strong and gusty winds are the main threat but there may be a few storms with large hail as well.

- Hot temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s are expected for highs today and could cause heat stress when doing outdoor activities. - Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The dryline has pushed back well to the west and currently extends from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. An upper disturbance moving northeast out of Mexico will trigger scattered convection along the dryline with some storms becoming severe. The main threat will be strong winds west of the dryline where a very dry subcloud layer is favorable for virga and gusty winds. These storms may not look impressive on radar but will still be capable of producing very strong winds. Storms developing or moving east of the dryline will have a better chance of producing large hail. Temperatures this afternoon will reach well into the 90s and even a few low 100s, which is 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Similar conditions exist Monday though the timing of the disturbance doesn't coincide with max heating and activity will be more sparse. Temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler but it will still be hot.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Upper flow becomes more southerly Tuesday due to increasing influence from a deep trough over the West Coast that is slowly moving east. Increasing instability and moisture brings PoPs up into the likely range (>50%) Wednesday and Thursday. Hate to get hopes up too high, but models are similar to last week when many locations got more than a half an inch of rain with 1-2 inch amounts not uncommon. There may be a severe threat next week but the main threat will probably still be localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Rural areas have received some nice rain lately but soils can likely hold a bit more rainfall before we see a major flood threat in open areas.

We haven't had an above normal precipitation year in Midland since 2021 and this is a good start to the year. In addition, the average first 100 degree day at MAF is May 31 so if we do not reach 100 degrees today, there is a good chance we get to the middle of June before we reach that mark which would be a cool start to summer.

Clouds and rainfall bring temps down Tue-Fri with many locations failing to reach 90 degrees. Drier southwesterly flow becomes reestablished by the weekend bringing down rain chances and increasing temps back closer to normal. High pressure fails to develop over West Texas and eastern New Mexico so rain chances do not completely go away.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

ISOLD-SCT TS will develop after 18Z possibly affecting all terminals. Have introduced PROB30 for TS with lower confidence due to exact location of TS. Any terminals not getting TS directly on station will have it affecting the local flying area. Erratic wind speeds and direction changes will be the main threats even for sites where TS is not observed on site. Activity moves east and diminishes after 03Z.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 70 97 70 / 20 30 0 0 Carlsbad 99 66 99 68 / 10 10 20 20 Dryden 97 71 96 72 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 68 97 69 / 50 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 89 66 89 66 / 10 10 20 20 Hobbs 98 64 96 65 / 30 10 20 20 Marfa 93 56 92 57 / 40 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 97 68 96 70 / 20 30 0 10 Odessa 97 69 96 70 / 30 20 0 10 Wink 100 68 98 70 / 30 20 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.