textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Numerous showers/storms from Terrell County through the Stockton Plateau expected beginning 12 pm through 3 pm, spreading north into the Permian Basin 3 pm through 7 pm.

- Highest chance (70% or greater) of showers/storms and flash flooding from sunset this evening through midnight tonight.

- Drier weather this weekend, followed by windy conditions early next week, accompanied by a return to cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with persistent low cloud decks as the remnants of TC Vance move in from the southwest and a mid to upper disturbance over the Desert SW provide widespread lift. High- res CAMs depict numerous showers/storms lifting north from the Big Bend and developing north from the Marfa Plateau into Stockton Plateau 12 pm through 3 pm, and then much of the Permian Basin from 3 pm through 7 pm. With widespread clouds from lift over the area and TC Vance weakening rapidly to a mainly mid-level circulation aloft, near surface instability will be limited as highs remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s F. As a result, SPC only has us outlooked in a general t'storm area. However, with strongly veering winds and at least 35 knots of shear throughout the atmosphere apparent on model forecast soundings, a brief damaging wind gust or spinup in any stronger showers/storms still cannot be ruled out.

The bigger story however, will be flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect from this afternoon through Friday evening and has been expanded to encompass the entire area, due to heavy rainfall of 2" to 3" that fell over western higher terrain yesterday. Places with poor drainage such as low lying and urban regions, sloped terrain, and places that experience repeated rounds of heavy rains will all be most at risk for flooding impacts. PWATs increase above the 90th percentile for this time of year from the Big Bend through Permian Basin, with up to 1.5" on model forecast soundings. Lower PWATs still 1.2" to 1.4" farther west from the Presidio Valley into SE NM plains will still run above average for this time of year. Therefore, there will be plenty of moisture to work with to present a flash flooding threat there as well, especially given saturated soils due to heavy rains yesterday. Peak timing of heaviest rain will likely be from 7 pm through midnight. During this period, a greater than 60% chance of showers/storms is present for much of the area, even though not everyone is guaranteed to see rainfall. Ensembles depict widespread 0.5" to 1.0" from the Presidio Valley into Eddy County Plains, and 1" to 3" from Terrell County through the Permian Basin by Friday morning, with high (70% or greater) probabilities of at least 1.5" to 2.5" for the northern Permian Basin - where the most widespread and heaviest rain is expected Thursday evening through Friday. Lows tonight fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s F tonight as winds shift to the north and bringing in drier air behind the remnants of TC Vance lifting off to the northeast. As rain chances taper off from southwest to northeast and decrease below medium (35% to 45%) for the Permian Basin by Friday afternoon, continued widespread cloud cover keeps highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s F, apart from upper 70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows Friday night remain similar to tonight under light and variable winds. A quieter but more active upper air pattern then follows.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A drier weekend is in store, before another mid to upper storm system early next week brings strong winds across the area. Highs Saturday rise into the 70s F, 80s F along the Rio Grande basin under clearer skies and renewed light southerly winds. A low (less than 30%) chance of showers/storms over the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos from daytime heating of elevated terrain is expected afternoon/evening, with storms diminishing after sunset while lows fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s F range. A more progressive weather pattern beginning late weekend Sunday brings another round of higher rain chances (above 30%) Sunday for northern parts of the area, although the best forcing and therefore heaviest rainfall are likely to remain to the north of the area. Highs warm back into the mid 70s to mid 80s F by Sunday, with warmer temperatures continuing through Monday. Winds shift from southerly to westerly from Sunday night through Monday morning, with winds 35 mph or greater indicated for the Guadalupes/Delawares. These winds may persist through Tuesday, before cooler temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s F highs, mid 40s to mid 50s F lows) and lighter winds return to the area by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Expect deteriorating conditions this afternoon into the overnight hours. If not already MVFR, all terminals will see these conditions soon with periodic IFR as rain intensity increases after 30/00Z. Winds will remain generally from the southeast to east. Expect numerous amendments through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 69 58 76 / 100 100 20 10 Carlsbad 57 72 56 75 / 90 20 20 10 Dryden 60 73 61 75 / 100 40 30 0 Fort Stockton 60 74 59 78 / 100 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 54 66 54 69 / 80 10 20 10 Hobbs 55 67 53 72 / 100 50 10 10 Marfa 53 71 52 74 / 90 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 59 69 58 74 / 100 80 10 10 Odessa 59 69 59 74 / 100 70 10 10 Wink 59 72 58 75 / 100 30 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.