textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 437 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions persist through this evening over portions of southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West Texas. Similar conditions are possible Thursday and Friday over similar areas.

- Shower/storm chances (generally 20-40%) increase for mainly eastern portions of the area mid-week through early next week. A few storms may be strong to severe over the northeastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level trough across the central and southern Rockies. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure is setup across western Oklahoma and northern half of the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations are also capturing a dryline over the TX/NM border extending into the Davis Mountains. The dryline will shift eastward throughout the afternoon as daytime heating mixes in drier air. As a result, breezy southwesterly to westerly winds bring continued warm weather across the region. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon. The forecast high at KMAF is 87 degrees, which would be two degrees shy of tying the previous record high temperature set back in 1974.

Tonight into early Wednesday morning, rain chances start to increase as a cold front approaches the region. The dryline retrogrades westward bringing moisture advection for the eastern portions of the forecast area. Lows will span in the upper 40s to low 60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos due to the increased low-level moisture. Areas across southeast New Mexico and higher terrain span in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Wednesday afternoon, cooler temperatures are in store across the region, along with isolated storms over the eastern Permian Basin extending into the Stockton Plateau. Highs are expected to be in the 70s and mid 80s for most locations. High resolution guidance is in agreement with isolated storms occurring over the eastern portions of the forecast area. Forecast soundings depict modest surface and mixed layer CAPE, minimal low-level wind shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and high DCAPE values (> 800 J/kg). Most storms are anticipated to remain below severe thresholds, however, we cannot rule out a strong storm or two during this timeframe. The main threat with the strongest storms will be damaging winds.

Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, shower and storm coverage increases as the dryline shifts westward, coinciding with subtle upper-level troughing over the region which will provide more favorable ascent for storms to develop. Similar areas across the eastern Permian Basin extending into the Stockton Plateau will have the best chance (20-35%) in seeing showers/storms. More shower/storm activity continues heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A few storm systems look to maintain some rain chances across portions of our area during the long term period. An upper-level trough is progged to swing across the western CONUS Thursday, placing our region under southwesterly flow. Meanwhile, at the surface, an area of low pressure will deepen off the Rockies, drawing Gulf moisture up into the Plains. This will help sharpen up a dryline somewhere within our region Thursday afternoon, serving as a focal point for instability. Ensembles indicate deep layer shear of 30-40 kts and mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-8.5 C/km east of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon and evening. As of now, rain chances are low to medium (20-40%) over the eastern half of our region Thursday afternoon. The best (~40%) odds shall be over the Permian Basin. Storm development and location will depend on the exact location of the dryline. Provided sufficient lift, shear, and instability, a few storms may be strong to severe over the eastern half of the region, especially near the northeastern Permian Basin. The main threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Aside from storm potential, the storm system also brings breezy southerly and southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday are forecast to top out in the 80s for most. Warm breezy, and dry conditions to the west of the dry line may lead to increased fire danger over our western counties Thursday afternoon.

Rain chances begin decreasing and shifting eastward along with the dryline Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds remain breezy out of the southwest Friday due to our proximity to the shortwave's jet core. Highest winds can be found in and near the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s to 80s Friday afternoon, then slip into the 40s to 50s Friday night. The shortwave pushes a cold front through the area early Saturday morning into Saturday. Lift from the front combined with a westward retreating dry line looks to bring rain chances back to the Permian Basin and portions of the Trans Pecos Saturday. Highs Saturday are expected to reach into the 60s over most of the Permian Basin, the higher terrain, and southeast New Mexico. 70s are generally expected elsewhere.

Saturday night into Sunday, an upper level low looks to develop near the coast of SoCal and Baja. Should this feature materialize, models have it slowly drifting over the Desert Southwest through the middle of the week, providing moisture and lift over our area. Thus, nearly daily low rain chances are in the forecast to finish out the long term period. Increased cloud coverage and lower heights keeps afternoon highs in the 60s/70s Sunday, then 70s/80s Monday and Tuesday. However, such conditions are dependent on exact storm track and how much moisture is advected our direction.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with increasing high clouds. A weak cold front will move through the terminals overnight and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 54 73 54 81 / 0 20 30 40 Carlsbad 47 76 49 83 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 61 84 61 87 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Stockton 57 79 59 88 / 0 10 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 50 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 44 74 51 81 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 45 80 44 80 / 0 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 76 56 82 / 0 10 20 40 Odessa 55 76 57 82 / 0 0 20 40 Wink 51 77 54 85 / 0 0 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.