textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 - Storms become more isolated in nature today before increasing again during the early to middle part of next week ahead of the next approaching system. A few storms could become strong to severe with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current radar imagery shows remnant showers across portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Showers are expected to continue over these areas for the next couple of hours as an outflow boundary progresses southward. In the upper-levels, the shortwave trough that brought numerous thunderstorms yesterday, moves east of the region, while subtle ridging builds in across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This pattern promotes much drier conditions for most locations today. Upslope flow and weak disturbances within the flow aloft brings a low (10-30%) chance of isolated storms over the higher terrain and parts of southeast New Mexico this afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles, high DCAPE ( > 1200 J/kg), and steep mid-level lapse rates suggest a potential damaging wind and large hail threat for spots in/near the higher terrain. Lack of wind shear will keep most storms tame for this afternoon and early evening. High temperatures both today and Monday are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most locations.

Tonight, lows are forecast to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis parks over portions of the southern Plains. This feature slides east of the region by Monday afternoon. As a result, an upper-level storm system begins to approach from the west, bringing increased rain/storm chances (20- 40%) during the late afternoon across portions of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. These chances significantly increase heading into Tuesday. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The unsettled late spring weather pattern persists into the middle of the week while temperatures remain near average for this time of year before warming back up by the end of the week. Humid, upslope southeast winds will continue as a diffuse dryline continues to oscillate from westernmost higher terrain into Lea County down to the Big Bend, separating more humid air with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F to the east from drier air with dew point temperatures in the 30s and 40s F to the west. Aloft, a closed upper disturbance with cooler air will enhance destabilization of the atmosphere during diurnal heating, with shower/storms likely forming over heated elevated terrain and moving northeast into the overnight hours. Monday night, 45% to 65% rain chances will spread west to east as shower/storms that formed during the day develop northeast, and as lows drop into the 50s and 60s F. This will be followed by highs only rising into the 70s and 80s F for most on Tuesday as widespread clouds and continued 45% to 65% rain chances limit diurnal heating. Rain chances taper off by Tuesday night, with lows again settling into the 50s and 60s F. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated due to weak shear aloft, it is not out of the question that hail and damaging winds could be seen in the strongest storms Monday night into Tuesday, even though the primary risk will remain flooding in low-lying and poor drainage regions. Strongest winds outside of showers/storms are likely on the leeward slopes relative to where the dryline ends up each afternoon. Weak ridging begins to build back by Wednesday with temperatures warming back into the 80s F, but highs will only return back into the mid 80s to mid 90s F Thursday, with a slow warming trend into next weekend. Daily afternoon/evening shower/storm chances of 25% to 35% over easternmost parts of the area will still be present. However, we will settle back into a warmer and drier pattern as large scale sinking motion aloft suppresses more widespread clouds and shower/storm development.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy southeasterly winds continue at PEQ, HOB, and FST until 07Z-08Z. Otherwise, lighter southerly to southeasterly winds are expected at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 95 63 94 60 / 0 0 20 70 Dryden 91 67 92 69 / 0 10 0 30 Fort Stockton 92 64 92 65 / 10 0 0 60 Guadalupe Pass 86 63 84 58 / 0 0 30 70 Hobbs 91 60 91 59 / 10 10 0 60 Marfa 87 52 88 52 / 20 0 10 70 Midland Intl Airport 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 30 Odessa 89 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 40 Wink 93 64 93 64 / 0 10 0 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.