textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A strong cold front has pushed much colder air into the region. Although Monday looks chilly, this will be the beginning of a warming trend. - Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday onward.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Brrrr! What a difference 24 hours makes. Mesoanalysis shows the front has made it south of the river, and post-frontal wind gusts of up to 40 mph and low temperatures are resulting in wind chills as low as the mid teens in some parts. CAA and a healthy mix of stratus and high cloud will result in highs in the 40s most locations, averaging a whopping 30 F lower than yesterday.

WV imagery this afternoon shows the west coast ridge moving though the Four Corners, and this feature will move through west Texas and Southeast New Mexico overnight.

Fortunately, surface winds are still forecast to veer back around to return flow overnight, halting CAA. Winds will be light, promoting radiational cooling, but the cloud cover is expected to hang in there, so it'll be a wash. Instead, overnight minimums will be similar to this mornings, only colder in the south, which hit their lows this morning before the full effects of the front were realized.

Monday, a trough will lie to the west, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Thicknesses are forecast to jump considerably, w/NBM increasing highs about 15 F over today's. Unfortunately, cloud cover doesn't look to budge much, and this looks like a classic bust, where models are too quick to warm things up. Therefore, we'll stick closer to the NBM 25th percentile for highs Monday.

Monday night, skies finally look to begin scattering out NW-SE, but dewpoints will also increase considerably due to return flow. This will result in lows ~ 5-6 F warmer than tonight.

The only upside is that the short term is the coldest part of this week's forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

An upper-level trough swings over the Desert Southwest Tuesday, bringing southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a lee trough develops along the Front Range, helping to draw west/southwest surface winds. As a result, temperatures end up 10 to 20 degrees warmer Tuesday compared to Monday, topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with lows in the 30s/40s. The trough pushes a weak cold front into the region early Wednesday morning. Given most of the cold air will be too far to the north, this front will have little to no effect on temperatures. In fact, winds switch from northwesterly to southwesterly Wednesday afternoon in response to another surface low developing over the northern Plains. Temperatures Wednesday reach into the 70s, then slip into the 40s overnight. Another cold front arrives Thursday, but remains weak due to a lack of upper-level support. Our northern counties warm into the upper 60s Thursday afternoon, while the rest of the region reaches the 70s to low 80s (near the Rio Grande). The jet stream spans across the northern half of the CONUS Friday, with little amplification Saturday. This allows temperatures to rise into the 70s Friday, then 70s/80s Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

CIGs are expected to remain MVFR at most terminals throughout tonight lasting through tomorrow morning. CIGs may lower below 1000 ft after 06Z, especially at HOB, FST, and potentially MAF sites. Confidence is low at both FST and MAF, thus, these were not implemented in the TAFs. CIGs begin to lift above 3000 ft by 16Z-19Z. Winds will remain light out of the east and south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 33 55 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 32 56 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 37 53 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 35 60 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 33 54 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 31 56 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 29 58 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 35 54 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 36 54 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 34 53 36 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.