textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Low (less than 15%) chance of isolated showers/storms today and tomorrow across the Big Bend and higher terrain.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the area providing large scale sinking motion and warming will keep shower/storm chances low (less than 15% PoPs) and temperatures very warm. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depicts a quieter start to the day than last night, with little in the way of any significant low-level cloud cover or precipitation. This is expected to continue today as highs rise into the 95F-100F range, 85F-90F higher elevations, and triple digits Presidio Valley and Big Bend. Humid, southeast, upslope winds will increase in the afternoon to 15 to 20 mph due to lee troughing remaining west of the area, but will diminish after sunset. With "cooler" daytime temperatures today, diurnal spread of 20F-25F being preserved with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F will result in lows 70F-75F, 65-70F cooler regions of SE NM plains ,Permian Basin, and Upper Trans Pecos, and 55F-65F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tomorrow, ridging begins to amplify, with highs rising back into the triple digits along stretches of the Pecos River and northeast Permian Basin, with 95F-100F highs elsewhere apart from 85F-95F highs over higher elevations. The warmer daytime temperatures tomorrow, along with continuing 20F-25F diurnal range will keep lows in the 65F-75F range across much of the area. PoPs remain low tomorrow and tomorrow night, but will begin increasing later this week and especially this weekend, with hazardous heat late this week again followed by "cooler" temperatures. More details on this can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package as warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week. This is thanks to an elongated upper ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 90s to lower 100s both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Warmer temperatures between 105 to 110 degrees are expected for areas along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat- related illnesses for those outdoors for prolonged periods. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and necessary precautions if outdoors! Other than the heat, surface troughing across the southern Rockies, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft creates a low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe, and Davis Mountains both days.

This weekend, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure weakens and shifts toward the central Rockies and Northern High Plains. Shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge brings upper- level moisture and ascent, thus increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms areawide by Sunday. Northeasterly flow aloft and southeasterly surface winds will also provide cooler temperatures spanning from the low to mid 90s Sunday through early next week.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions with south/southeast winds forecast at terminals throughout the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 74 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 97 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 60 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 74 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 74 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.