textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Monday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame.

- Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin Sunday and Monday.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-70% chances) by the middle to latter part of next week. Monitoring for strong to severe storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Breezy southwest flow holds on across the region today and will keep up the above normal temperatures with many locations once again reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Higher elevations reach into the upper 80s to low 90s. Unlike the last couple of days, showers and storms will not be a factor as rain chances will be near zero for the short term forecast. Temperatures will be slow to cool off tonight as continued breeziness and stagnant low level moisture make cooling inefficient. Little change to the pattern expected for Monday as temperatures will once again be well above normal with many reaching the mid to upper 90s. A few spots, including Midland/Odessa, may see their first 100F day of the year. This would be a couple weeks early as the average first 100F day in Midland occurs around May 31st. Both today and Monday will feature critical fire weather conditions. Read the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Pattern change begins Monday evening as a cold front approaches the region. Uncertainty remains with where in the area the front will stall out during the day on Tuesday. However, some parts of the region should see temperatures a bit closer to normal. Areas south of the front will remain well above normal in the mid to upper 90s. The addition of the front and a disturbance moving in from the west will give support to a few storms developing over the eastern reaches of the area mainly east of Midland/Odessa. An unsettled pattern looks to hold on through the rest of the week as the nearby front and the spring-time dryline act as foci for daily afternoon/evening convection to develop on. This pattern is typical for the spring and there very well could be strong to severe storms during this time. However, specific details of timing, exact hazards, and location remain to be seen.

Temperatures during this unsettled period look to end up below normal in the 80s for most. Although, this hinges on the front moving through the region and the cooler airmass behind the front moving overhead. Overnight lows will be much closer to normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most each night.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period, apart from low confidence in MVFR CIGs in low stratus for terminals over the easternmost Permian Basin 11Z-16Z Monday morning. South/southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, gusting to 20 to 25 knots for terminals over SE NM plains into Permian Basin expected this afternoon. Winds continue to stay above 10 knots and back to southeast in a LLJ over the eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau 02Z-05Z this evening, while winds elsewhere become lighter. Winds again shift to southwesterly at terminals 14Z Monday morning into end of the period and gust to 15 to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Sparse precipitation over the last couple weeks in addition to breezy conditions with winds reaching into the 20-30 mph range during the day tomorrow will lead to southeast New Mexico and adjacent West Texas seeing critical fire weather conditions both this and Monday afternoons. Have kept the inherited Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch as is for this forecast package. An upper level low crossing the Rockies will provide the breezy conditions across the high terrain and southeast New Mexico the next couple of days. ERCs in the area range from the 75th to 90th+ percentile as moisture has been more abundant in areas to the east and south. A cold front arrives on Tuesday that will improve moisture conditions with rain chances increasing on Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 100 69 90 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 63 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 102 73 97 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 66 101 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 99 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 69 98 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 98 62 95 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.