textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Very windy conditions will impact the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. These windy conditions will elevate the fire threat this afternoon and early evening.

- Above normal temperatures expected Friday through Sunday making good outdoor weather for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough digging through central Texas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, almost meridional flow aloft. At the surface, a strong cold front is intruding upon the area, and will result in afternoon highs only 2-3 F above climatology.

Tonight, surface winds go light/variable under mostly clear skies, promoting efficient radiational cooling and allowing overnight minimums to bottom out right around normal.

Thursday, surface winds veer back around to return flow under dry, northwest flow aloft, and thicknesses begin increasing for a temperature recovery. Unfortunately, it will start out slow, with highs Thursday afternoon only a degree or so warmer than today.

Thursday night, a 35 kt LLJ will keep mixing in play, keeping

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Northwesterly to zonal flow aloft is expected through the first half of the weekend, as an upper ridge slides across northern Mexico. Temperatures warm into the 80s to low 90s (in areas near the Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers) Friday afternoon, then cool into the upper 40s to 50s Friday night. Saturday, temperatures trend upward, with highs in the 90s expected across much of the area. Portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and the higher terrain in west Texas shall reach the mid to upper 80s. Aside from warm temperatures, breezy conditions look to develop in and near the higher terrain Saturday afternoon and evening, courtesy of an approaching surface low. Upper troughing begins to take over again Sunday, eventually pushing a cold front into our area Sunday night. Sunday afternoon is forecast to feature breezy winds ahead of the front, remaining so as the front sweeps through. Expect highs a few degrees cooler than Saturday, with Sunday night lows falling to the 30s at many locations (40s in our southern counties). By Monday, surface high pressure sets up within the post-frontal air mass and temperatures generally top out in the 60s to low 70s. Return flow on Tuesday brings temperatures rebounding into the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Patchy BLDU continues to impact terminals as winds gradually decrease this evening. Expect VIS to improve around and after sunset at all terminals. Wind speeds drop to around 10kts or less for the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Gusty north and northeasterly winds behind a cold front persist this afternoon and into early this evening. These have lead to an increased fire danger threat, though minimum afternoon humidities remain above 15 percent, curving the threat of critical fire conditions. Thus, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon over most of the region, and is valid through early this evening. Lighter winds Thursday reduce the fire threat.

Friday sees the fire danger increasing again mainly due to low humidities that drop into the single digits Friday into Sunday. These low humidity values drive up the RFTI but the lack of a wind component should limit the fire threat to elevated thus critical conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 36 71 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 39 77 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 42 72 43 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 40 76 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 39 67 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 33 71 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 31 69 36 81 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 38 71 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 38 71 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 38 74 44 90 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.