textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures return across the area today and Thursday. The hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain chances become low to medium areawide.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough over western portions of the CONUS and ridging across the northeast. Meanwhile, zonal flow aloft and 500mb heights around 590 decimeters maintain hot temperatures. With that said, highs in the upper 90s and above the century mark are to be commonplace this afternoon and Thursday. Many spots along the Pecos River Valley and the Rio Grande can expect to see highs top out between 104 and 108 degrees, with some spots along the border (including the Big Bend) seeing temperatures approach 110 degrees. While temperatures don't quite meet Heat Advisory criteria, we cannot stress enough the importance of drinking plenty of fluids (water and electrolyte drinks) and taking frequent breaks under shade or inside a building with air conditioning. This is especially for those who work outside or spend a lot of time outdoors.

The other side of the weather story today and tomorrow are the chances of isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorms. Upslope flow and weak forcing along the dryline yield low (10-30%) chances of showers/storms across the higher terrain through the western Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. By tomorrow, chances (20-40%) mainly reside in and around the Davis Mountains as weak upslope flow persists. A few storms may become strong, capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and localized flash flooding with the heaviest rainfall (though the overall severe and flash flood threat is low). Farther to the east, winds become breezy (15-20 mph sustained) in response to surface troughing across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Lows tonight and tomorrow night remain in the low-to-mid 70s for most. Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Low level flow becomes slightly more southeasterly on Friday providing better access to cooler gulf air with this pattern continuing into the weekend. Therefore temperatures should cool slightly on Friday, getting closer to normal for this time of year with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s for most areas, low 100s in the river valleys. Temps remain seasonably hot Saturday but the pattern becomes more uncertain on Sunday.

Models depict a large trough moving into the upper Midwest pushing a cold front into West Texas and eastern New Mexico on Sunday. How far south this front makes it will greatly determine the highs and rain chances for Sunday afternoon. The current NBM is trying to have it's cake and eat it too; showing hot temperatures like the front fails to arrive, while increasing rain chances like the front does arrive. The more likely solution may be the front makes it into the area if not on it's own then with an assist from outflow from convection in the TX Panhandle. Even if it doesn't quite make it this far south the likely increase in cloud cover should cool temps down a couple of degrees so the greatest uncertainty lies in the temperature forecast. High pressure behind the front builds south Monday and Tuesday providing a return of below normal temperatures and continuing what has been a mild start to the summer so far. The best rain chances are closer to the front and push into the Big Bend by Tuesday. An upper ridge then builds into the Great Plains by late in the week bringing hotter and drier conditions to the CWA.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites. Once again, guidance develops MVFR CIGs just east of MAF and FST this morning, but confidence in low clouds reaching either terminal was too low to include in the TAFs. Similar to yesterday, breezy southerly to southeasterly winds decrease through the rest of the morning, though gusts between 20-25 kts (and occasionally higher) are expected to persist at MAF and FST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 106 72 97 70 / 0 10 10 20 Dryden 99 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 72 95 70 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 70 88 67 / 0 0 30 20 Hobbs 103 68 93 68 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 96 62 91 59 / 30 20 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 99 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 104 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.