textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- A warming trend continues through at least Wednesday, after which temperatures will decrease slightly Thursday and Friday, before rebounding Saturday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today. Tuesday looks dry, before chances increase Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon, mainly south of I-20.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

WV imagery shows the upper trough/shear axis that has resided over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico since last week has now moved into central Texas, courtesy of an upper ridge just west of the Four Corners. At the surface, northeasterly winds still prevail, and this upslope flow will combine with the western influences of the trough for one more chance of convection, mainly this morning, before the trough moves into the ArklaTex and surface winds begin veering back to return flow. However, northeast flow will persist long enough today to provide one more round of unseasonably cool highs. Although highs will average a degree or so below climatology, they'll be a degree or so warmer than yesterday. As has been the case the last few days, today will be the coolest day this forecast, as the warming trend continues.

Tonight, as mentioned above, surface winds will finally veer back to return flow, combining w/a few mid/high clouds to keep overnight minimums warmer than the last couple of nights. Lows should remain at least ~ 6-8 F above normal, although this will still be a cool upper 50s/lower 60s most locations. Tuesday, the western ridge is forecast to extend from the SoCal/Baja coast southeast into Mexico, resulting in dry, northwesterly flow aloft. With return flow firmly established, thicknesses will increase and highs will increase a good 5 F over today's temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Thicknesses are forecast to increase through midweek, with highs Wednesday afternoon climbing to ~ 5-7 F above normal. Unfortunately, models begin developing an upper trough over the region right about this time, decreasing thicknesses and highs by 3-4 F going into the weekend. This feature is forecast to eject northeast Saturday, allowing highs to rebound to ~ 5-7 F above normal. Yesterday, the GFS was saturating the column to above 300 mb in deep easterly flow late in the week under this trough, suggesting a potential heavy rain event. Well, this anomaly is nowhere to be found on current runs, as happens quite frequently w/the GFS. Even so, enough moisture is forecast under the trough for convective potential Wednesday afternoon through Friday night, mainly in the south. Friday afternoon looks most promising attm. Unfortunately, QPF looks rather tepid. However, given this pattern, changes are likely between now and the end of the work week. Stay tuned...

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs at times are possible all terminals this morning, as NE-E surface winds continue. These winds will veer to southeast this afternoon, and although remaining light, should ensure VFR conditions the rest of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 84 59 86 61 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 79 59 84 59 / 30 0 0 0 Dryden 81 63 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 79 60 84 61 / 30 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 56 74 57 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 77 57 81 59 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 73 53 78 55 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 60 84 62 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 81 61 84 63 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 82 62 85 62 / 30 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.