textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Following cool temperatures today and near to below freezing temperatures Monday night, a sharp warming trend begins on Tuesday lasting through the rest of the week.

- Extreme early season heat continues to be indicated by late this week and peaks this weekend, characterized by highs above 90F and lows above 50F. No rain chances are in the forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Current satellite imagery and observations show the cold front well south of the forecast area. As an upper-level trough moves east into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, strong northeasterly gap winds may persist at Guadalupe Pass through early this morning. Cold air advection behind the front ushers cooler temperatures to the region today with highs ranging in the upper 40s to low 60s across most locations. Tonight, cold temperatures are in store once again thanks to mostly clear skies and light winds promoting radiational cooling. As a result, low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to span in the mid 20s and 30s regionwide. Tuesday, surface lee troughing develops providing much warmer weather and breezy conditions across the region. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s and 70s for many spots with areas along the Trans Pecos in the low 80s. Temperatures continue to warm up from this point forward. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Deterministic and ensemble models continue to show ridging over the Desert SW building east by the middle of the week, with lee troughing from the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains maintaining light southerly winds. The accompanying large scale sinking motion and WAA will allow return of warmer than average temperatures by mid-week despite light winds. Tuesday night, lows fall from the mid 60s to mid 70s F early evening into the 50s F after midnight and mid 40s to lower 50s F by daybreak Wednesday. There is a medium probability (45% to 60%) of lows falling below 40F for northeast Lea County and northwest Permian Basin as well as southwest foothills of the Marfa Plateau by Wednesday morning. Highs rise back into the 50s and 60s F mid- morning Wednesday before reaching the 70s F by early afternoon and lower to mid 80s F, upper 70s F higher elevations, and lower 90s from Presidio Valley into Big Bend by late afternoon. By late afternoon, mid to upper ridging in NAEFS standardized anomaly tables is characterized by geopotential heights anomalies 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal and temperatures also 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal. The anomalous strength of the ridge building in from the west will allow for a faster warm-up than Tuesday by late afternoon, despite the light to breezy southerly winds. Following lows only falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s F range Wednesday night as dew point temperatures in the 20s F western higher terrain and SE NM plains and 30s to 40s F farther east maintain efficient overnight cooling when paired with the light winds, even warmer temperatures than Wednesday are expected Thursday. This will mean highs in the lower to mid 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and lows only falling into the mid to upper 50s F range with exception of mid to upper 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains. The anomalously strong ridging maintains its grip Friday as EFI/SOT values highest to the west of the forecast area impinge on western higher terrain and SE NM plains, while dew point temperatures fall into the teens and 20s F and allow for a rapid warm-up to mid 90s F, upper 80s to lower 90s F higher elevations, and upper 90s F to triple digits from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Temperatures will resemble mid to late May if not early June than mid to late March. Perhaps uncannily, this will be even more reinforced by the light winds typical of the death ridge pattern setting in during that time of year. Low dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture below 45F still maintains at least a 20 to 25 degree diurnal range, with lows largely above 45F and below 65F. This will be followed by similar highs to Friday for Saturday, if not even warmer and more reminiscent of early June given how much of the area is expected to see 90s F, with triple digits along the Rio Grande, parts of the Pecos River, and northeast Permian Basin indicated in NBM forecast grids!

Ridging takes time to deamplify over the western CONUS, but it will mark the start of a cooling trend into early next week. NAEFS ensembles indicate geopotential anomalies and temperatures decreasing down to the 2.5 to 3 standard deviations range Sunday and 1.5 to 2 standard deviations range by next Monday as the upper air pattern over the western CONUS becomes more quasi-zonal and lower amplitude. By Sunday into early next week, a cooling trend allows highs to decrease by up to 5 degrees from the previous day on Sunday, and around 5 to 10 degrees down from the previous day next Monday. Due to large scale sinking motion from the ridge throughout this week into next weekend, no rain chances are expected through the period. The biggest story will be the summer- time like daytime heat. Given that it has been at least a few months since the last time we experienced such widespread 90F-95F+ heat, take extra precautions for dealing with the early season heat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as winds will decrease throughout tonight. Breezy (15-20 kts sustained) northeasterly winds behind the cold front persist into the early morning hours for most terminals. Occasional wind gusts up to 30 kts look to occur during this timeframe. By 12Z, winds become much lighter and veer southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 51 32 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 31 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 36 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 54 36 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 35 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 51 28 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 24 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 51 33 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 51 34 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 52 31 78 42 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.