textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas both this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday before cooler conditions set in through early next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Upper ridging centered near the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico remains the dominant weather maker within the Short Term period. Hot and dry conditions continue for most across the region. Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are expected Friday afternoon. The hottest conditions will be near/along the river valleys, where highs are progged to reach just shy of 105 degrees (up to 107 degrees in portions of the Big Bend). Tonight and Friday night, temperatures generally fall to the 70s. Although most stay dry, breezy south/southeast winds bring low (<20%) rain chances to the higher terrain and portions of New Mexico each afternoon of the period. The best odds of isolated showers/storms will be near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Some models indicate a possibility for rainfall over parts of Eddy and Lea counties Friday evening. Conditions trend slightly cooler and wetter ahead. More details below!

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects over the area Saturday as it shifts toward the Northern High Plains. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak cold front will drop into the region early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope flow will persist at the surface during this time.

Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across portions of the region early nest week. Additionally, while cooler temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday, with afternoon highs moderating into the mid-80s to low-90s Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, elevated overnight due to the LLJ. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field early Friday afternoon, w/bases ~ 7-9 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 102 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 69 91 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 70 99 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 94 62 94 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 100 72 97 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.