textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue across the region through this week and into the weekend. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40%) afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend today and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions continue over the rest of the region.

- Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially near the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid-to-upper ridge extending from the Four Corners region through the central/southern Plains and southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough stretches from the central High Plains to southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This yields breezy conditions and very warm tempertures this afternoon. Highs are forecast to range in the upper 90s to lower triple digits for most, with the hottest tempertures confined mostly to the river valleys. By Wednesday, the upper ridge builds eastward and many spots see afternoon highs 2-3 degrees warmer than today's. Moist upslope flow brings chances (10-40%) of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend this afternoon/evening and again on Wednesday. Brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are anticipated to be the main hazards with any storms that develop. Otherwise, sinking motion under the ridge keeps the rest of the area dry. Greening

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward and become centered over the Gulf Coast states late this week as a trough develops over the western CONUS. Tempertures remain slightly above normal as we remain on the western edge of the ridge. Highs in the mid 90s to lower triple digits are expected Thursday and Friday. Though triple digit temperatures become confined to portions of the Trans Pecos and along the Big Bend on Friday. Afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances (20-60%) increase late this week across the western higher terrain as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. These chances expand from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande, with the best chances (50-70%) over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions are maintained across the eastern half of our CWA due to its closer proximity to the ridge. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lighting, and gusty winds will be the main hazards with the strongest of storms. Long- range model guidance and cluster analysis shows the upper-level ridge building back to the west this weekend. As such, the latest forecast shows a decrease in storm chances and become mainly confined to the higher terrain. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Sustained winds between 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts. Gusts decreasing after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 103 75 100 / 0 10 20 10 Dryden 76 102 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 101 75 100 / 10 30 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 69 90 / 10 10 30 20 Hobbs 72 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 65 93 65 92 / 20 20 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 101 76 100 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 75 101 76 99 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 75 103 76 101 / 0 10 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.