textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected areawide today.

- A potent front brings strong northerly winds later today and much colder temperatures tonight and Monday. Many locations will experience temperatures at or below freezing Monday morning.

- Following near to below freezing low temperatures Monday night, a sharp warming trend occurs for the middle into the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winds this morning remain elevated, with strong gusts still being measured in and around the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. This is thanks to a surface trough that has developed out ahead of an incoming upper-level system. Today, the upper-level jet associated with this system dives down into west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The system also pushes a strong cold front down into the area this afternoon, which makes its way southward towards the international border through the evening. As a result of these factors, gusty winds are expected across the region through the day, and the Wind Advisory issued previously remains in effect from late this morning through this evening. Likewise, the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains remains in effect through early Monday morning. Blowing dust is expected to accompany the front as it pushes in from the north. Just how much blowing dust can be expected still remains questionable at this time, but trends will be closely monitored, and a Blowing Dust Advisory may be deemed necessary later this morning. Additionally, very dry conditions coupled with the strong winds yield critical to extreme fire weather conditions today. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

Winds begin to taper down by Sunday night, but cold air advection continues through the night behind the front. As a result, many locations will experience low temperatures near or below freezing Monday morning, so take the necessary precautions to protect sensitive plants! Highs Monday end up between 20-30 degrees cooler than today's highs. While most locations top out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s before the front pushes through today, by Monday temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will be commonplace. However, this cooldown is going to be rather short-lived. More details on that in the Long Term Discussion!

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The period begins with lingering cooler conditions before a rapid warm-up ensues - courtesy of near record mid to upper ridging over the western CONUS and redevelopment of lee troughing leeward of western higher terrain of W TX and into SE NM plains allowing persistent southerly near surface flow. Monday night, lingering troughing over the central to eastern CONUS in the wake of late weekend's upper air disturbance will maintain dry west/northwest flow aloft even as winds veer to southeast/south. Lows have not changed much from forecast runs 24 hours prior. Near to below freezing temperatures north of the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County and southeast Permian Basin are still anticipated, with mid 30s to lower 40s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County and southeast Permian Basin. Despite NBM showing lows above freezing from the Guadalupes into northeast foothills of the Marfa Plateau and eastern Stockton Plateau, ensembles still indicate a medium to high (55% to 70%) probability of lows below freezing for those locations, while there is only a indication in NBM and ensembles medium (35% to 55%) of lows falling into the 20s F over southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, and northern SE NM plains. Lowest temperatures are expected by daybreak Tuesday, before highs quickly rise from the 50s F mid-morning to 60s and 70s F early afternoon, and into the mid 70s to lower 80s F by late afternoon into evening Tuesday. This quick warming in daytime temperatures will occur as mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion amplifies over the Pacific SW and Desert SW and builds east, in combination with the stronger rays of the mid March sun. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s F are still expected over southernmost parts of the area farthest from the ridge. Following sunset, lows are expected to fall back into the 50s F for much of the night, finally settling into the mid 40s to lower 50s F by daybreak Wednesday for lows Tuesday night.

The sharp warming trend remains on track for the middle into the end of the week, and unusually warm to hot daytime temperatures may linger into early next week. Amidst ridging characterized by geopotential heights 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal over the area with temperatures also 3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal middle to late week, highs in the 80s to 90s F range make a reappearance. Highs in the mid to upper 80s F, lower to mid 90s F along Rio Grande, and upper 70s F higher elevations into southernmost parts of the area farthest from the ridge for Wednesday give way to highs in the mid 80s F to mid 90s F Thursday, while lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s F Wednesday night give way to lows in the upper 40s F only over southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, with mid to upper 50s F elsewhere for Thursday night. Core of ridging will remain strongest west of the area, whereas EFI/SOT indicate building anomalously warm temperatures by Thursday and Friday for the western higher terrain into Eddy County Plains. In fact, by Friday we are seeing highs in the NBM showing lower to mid 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, and upper 90s F to triple digits closest to the Rio Grande, even as a 20 to 25 diurnal range with lows still largely falling below 60F persist as dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture below 50F maintain efficient overnight cooling. Saturday remains much the same story in terms of temperature magnitude and anomalies - near record warm highs more typical of May than mid to late March, while lows largely remain above 50F and below 65F. Ridging begins to deamplify and the upper air pattern becomes more zonal by late next weekend, but both heights and temperatures remain near 3 standard deviations above average until next Tuesday according to current NAEFS standardized anomaly tables. As was the case this weekend, no rain chances are expected next week - although this time that will be due no to the dry air ahead of and behind a strong cold front but instead the large scale sinking motion over the area from the mid to upper ridge.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail, aside from possible visibility reductions that may occur this afternoon and evening thanks to BLDU. Uncertainty still remains regarding the timing of BLDU, and how low visibilities will get. Nevertheless, have gone ahead and included a mention of BLDU for all sites. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds strengthen at all sites this morning and into the afternoon. Winds veer northerly to northeasterly later in the afternoon behind a front. Gusts begin to diminish overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Westerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph beginning late this afternoon will be followed by winds shifting to northwesterly and then northerly into Sunday evening with continued strong winds, stronger sustained and gusts over higher terrain. These strong 20-ft winds above 20 mph accompanying min RH below critical 15% following poor overnight recovery, dry fuels characterized by ERCs near or in the 70th to 89th percentile range, and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year will result in RFTIs areawide at least 6-8. Consequently, the Fire Weather Watch previously in effect for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and critical to extreme fire weather conditions remain forecast areawide this afternoon through this evening. Following passage of a strong cold front this evening and much colder temperatures by tonight with decreasing northerly winds, low fire weather conditions again return to the area. Persistent cool temperatures Monday and Monday night will be followed by a sharp warming trend beginning Tuesday. However, despite min RH remaining near or below critical 15% and temperatures again warmer than average, light 20-ft winds will maintain low fire weather conditions into the end of the week/beginning of next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 84 33 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 93 38 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 86 34 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 30 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 25 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 82 32 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 83 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Crane- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.