textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 - Record high temperatures in the 80s are likely (75-90%) across the region today.

- Fire weather concerns are elevated to near-critical this afternoon as record warmth, low relative humidities, breezy conditions, and drying fuels are forecast.

- Temperatures briefly cool down on Sunday before more warmer weather takes shape throughout Christmas week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Near record warm temperatures today ahead of a cold front, followed by high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees cooler tomorrow behind a cold front. VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning again shows only a few thin high clouds streaming from northwest to southeast on the periphery of mid to upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. With lee troughing establishing east of the Guadalupes and Delawares into Davis Mountains, breezy to gusty westerly winds persist today ahead of a cold front developing south from the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Westerly downsloping winds along with large scale sinking motion from mid to upper ridging allow highs to rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s F, mid 70s to lower 80s F Marfa Plateau into Culberson County and Lea County, and mid to upper 80s F Big Bend into Terrell County and Stockton Plateau. There remains a high (75% to 90%) probability of high temperature exceeding 80 F for much of W TX leeward of higher elevations and across the southern SE NM plains. The record high temperature of 79F at KMAF set in 2010 is very likely to be exceeded. Deterministic, ensemble, and NWP guidance all continue to show 3-hourly wind and wind gusts remaining below high wind criteria even for higher elevations, so no high wind products have been issued.

With the cold frontal passage, winds shift from west/southwest to north/northeast tonight, allowing lows to decrease 10 to 15 degrees compared to Friday night. This allows lows to fall back into the mid to upper 30s F not just from the basins of Culberson County into southwest foothills of the Davis Mountains, but from Lea County into the northern Permian Basin. Tomorrow, continued CAA keeps high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s F from the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and much of Permian Basin, in the lower 60s F Western Low Rolling Plains, mid to upper 70s F Culberson County and Marfa Plateau into Terrell County, and upper 70s to mid 80s F confined to southern Rio Grande basins from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. South/southwest winds resume Sunday night, but with the dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture remaining below 40F except for far eastern portions of the forecast area, expect efficiency of overnight cooling to allow for a 20 to 25 degree diurnal range and therefore low from the mid 30s to mid 40s F for most locations. Whether ahead or behind the cold front, no rain chances are forecast as quasi-zonal flow and weak ridging keep any weather systems well to the north of the area, and we continue to expect dry and slightly above average temperatures into next weekend. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

After a cooler day on Sunday, temperatures soar back into the 70s and low 80s on Monday. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge building in from the west and this feature will sit over the region for much of next week. As a result, guidance has consistent high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during this timeframe. The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to show forecasted temperatures at the 700 and 850mb levels nearing the 99th to maximum climatological percentiles over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This signals unusually warm conditions occurring Christmas week. Low temperatures are expected to be well above normal for this time of year (mid 40s to mid 50s). These forecasted lows reach near record "warm low" territory by the latter half of the work week. Dry conditions persist through the whole period.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Southwesterly winds continue through tonight with occasional gusts. Gusts reach between 20-25kts during the day on Saturday. VFR remains at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Fire weather concerns become elevated to near-critical across the region late this morning into the afternoon as record high temperatures drive down afternoon humidities below 15 percent. Light southwesterly winds are expected to shift westerly and increase late this morning into the early afternoon. Sustained westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph, with occasional gusts over 30 mph are anticipated this afternoon. Winds should be light enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ERCs in the 75th to 89th percentile range are forecast to develop across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos regions, indicating drying fuels. Fuel moisture values at or below the 25th percentile are expected in some locations. Locations over the northern half of Lea County, NM, extending into the northern Permian Basin, along with a few spots west of the Pecos River, look to reach near-critical fire conditions as winds are expected to be stronger. With this in consideration, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and higher terrain of Guadalupe and Davis Mountains during this timeframe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 82 42 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 86 47 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 85 45 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 45 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 80 36 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 38 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 39 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 81 39 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 82 39 65 38 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.