textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend, with near record highs possible today. A strong front causes temperatures to plummet Sunday afternoon, with lows below freezing expected Sunday night.

- Gusty winds are expected today mainly in and around the higher terrain (especially in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains). Strong winds are expected across the area Sunday.

- Fire weather concerns increase for western portions of the area today. Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected areawide Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current mesoanalysis shows west Texas and southeast New Mexico sitting under light westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, with amplified upper-level flow over the northern CONUS. A trough begins to move southeastward today from the Pacific Northwest. Out ahead of it, lee troughing develops at the surface. This yields breezy westerly winds across the area today, particularly in and around the higher terrain (the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains remains in effect from Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening). These stronger downsloping winds cause temperatures to warm a few degrees relative to yesterday. In fact, the current high temperature record of 89 degrees at KMAF still appears to be in jeopardy of falling today. The NBM gives Midland a nearly 50% chance of reaching 90 degrees this afternoon. Elsewhere, highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s will be commonplace. Continued very dry conditions, plus the increasing winds, will also yield enhanced fire weather concerns, mainly for Eddy and Culberson Counties, along with the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Breezy winds persist Saturday night, resulting in warm overnight lows. Most locations only bottom out in the mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, the upper-level jet associated with the system aloft digs into the region. Meanwhile, the lee trough continues to strengthen as the system approaches. As a result, very gusty winds are on tap starting Sunday morning, and additional wind products will likely (> 80% confidence) be needed. By Sunday afternoon, a strong cold front also enters the area, bringing strong northerly winds with it and causing temperatures to plummet. For the time being, have elected to hold off on a High Wind Watch for our northernmost counties since most guidance has tended to keep those zones below criteria, despite the front and the proximity of the upper-level jet. That being said, we will continue to keep an eye on trends. In any case, Wind Advisories are likely to be deemed necessary for a large portion of the area. Critical to extreme fire weather is also expected Sunday (see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details). Highs manage to top out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s before the afternoon front sends temperatures crashing down. More details on temperatures behind the front can be found in the Long Term Discussion!

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Deterministic and ensemble models are consistent in depicting the back side of a mid to upper air disturbance developing from the northwest Rockies into the Central and Southern Great Plains and giving way to brief troughing remaining in place early week, before ridging than rapidly builds back from the southwest to near record levels for this time of year. Sunday night, gusty northeast winds are expected behind a cold front surging south from the CO Rockies and Central Great Plains. Expect gustiest winds 35 to 50 mph or higher from the evening into midnight before winds become less gusty after midnight and finally become light by daybreak Monday. Higher winds in the mid to upper troposphere will begin to decouple from the surface with overnight cooling and the cold front clearing the area, but the magnitude of the temperature gradient will be retained. This will mean lows are still expected to plummet into the 20s F northeast of the Pecos River and over the Marfa Plateau, near freezing elsewhere north of the Rio Grande and Terrell County, and into the mid 30s to lower 40s F for the Rio Grande and Terrell County. These lows have decreased since forecast runs 24 hours prior, attesting to the strength of the cold front. Despite the magnitude of the temperature gradient, dew point temperatures in the teens to 20s F prior to the cold front and in the single digits to teens F following the cold front are expected to keep any precipitation chances virtually non-existent, despite some deterministic models attempting to spin up a few showers over the Pecos River valley Sunday evening. This will come as an unwelcome shock to any early blooming plants as much of the area has not seen below freezing temperatures since early to mid February. If you have any cold sensitive plants that you have brought outdoors, be sure to bring them indoors before Sunday night. CAA persists Monday as troughing over the Central CONUS in the wake of the system stays in place for one more day, despite winds decreasing and veering to the east/southeast. This will mean highs not rising above 60 F for much of the area along and northeast of the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, highs not rising above 50 F for the Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Lower Trans Pecos, and highs only reaching the 60s F to the south and west of the Marfa Plateau. It is also worth noting that these highs too have come down by a few degrees compared to 24 hours prior. Lows Monday night fall near to below freezing north of the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County into southeast Permian Basin, and into the mid 30s to lower 40s F for the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County into southeast Permian Basin, as winds veer to southerly with ridging building back in.

Almost as rapidly as the cooldown began, the warm-up begins after Monday, and only persists and becomes more pronounced into late week/next weekend. Temperatures will be the biggest story of next week as there continues to be no rain chances with increased large scale sinking motion accompanying the mid to upper ridge over the Western CONUS. According to NAEFS ensembles, strength of ridging from heights aloft will average at least 3 standard deviations above normal starting Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures likewise 3 to 4 standard deviations above average by late week into next weekend. Highs go from the mid 70s to mid 80s F range, upper 60s to lower 70s F southernmost parts of the area Tuesday - to mostly mid to upper 80s F, 90s F along the Rio Grande and parts of the Pecos River in Eddy County Wednesday, with lower 80s F only over southeasternmost parts of the area farther away from the stronger ridging. Lows likewise again fail to back below freezing after Monday night, settling into the mid 40s to lower 50s F range Tuesday night, and into upper 40s to mid 50s F Wednesday night. The warming trend does not stop there. By Thursday, highs largely in the mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid to upper 90s F along the Rio Grande, and only down into the lower to mid 80s F for higher elevations will be present, with lows still managing to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s F for most of the area as dew point temperatures below 50F and light southerly winds manage to maintain efficient overnight cooling. The end of the week closes off with near record high temperatures once again, likely warmer than what we will have experienced during the beginning of this weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday rise solidly into the lower to mid 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations, and upper 90s to triple digits from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, while lows settle into the mid 50s to lower 60s F range. With the upper air pattern showing strong ridging holding into at least the end of next weekend, the cold and windy weather of this past weekend will be a distant memory as temperatures abruptly rise back to more typical of May than mid to late March.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Westerly winds become gusty this afternoon at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupe and Delawares, Culberson County, and Eddy County from afternoon through this evening as RFTIs rise into the 5-7 range, westerly 20-ft winds increase to above 20 mph, ERCs near or in the 70th to 89th percentile remain present, and min RH again falls into the single digits following poor overnight recovery. Increasing westerly 20-ft winds Sunday, continued warmer than average temperatures, and min RH below critical 15% will prompt RFTIs at least 7-8 and areawide Red Flag Warning conditions from late morning through early evening Sunday prior to colder air and northeast winds behind a cold front. A Fire Weather Watch is therefore now in effect for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas for Sunday late morning/early afternoon through early evening. Thereafter, much colder temperatures and decreasing winds lead to low fire weather conditions Monday, and despite a warming trend after Monday, continued light winds maintain these low fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 58 83 25 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 59 85 28 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 95 60 93 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 63 87 32 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 56 74 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 54 79 23 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 82 47 78 26 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 59 84 27 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 88 59 83 27 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 90 56 82 27 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains- Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.