textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Isolated storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across the southeastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and higher terrain. A storm or two may become strong capable of producing damaging winds and some hail. - Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging across the western CONUS, keeping temperatures near normal today and tomorrow. Easterly to southeasterly upslope flow and surface heating yield low (10-30%, up to 40%) chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across the higher terrain (particularly in/near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and Marfa Plateau). Visible satellite imagery supports this as it shows evidence of the development of a cu field (cumulus clouds) over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Radar imagery also shows a couple of pulse storms over the Guadalupe Mountains, but have so far struggled to hold together. Though chances (10-15%) are lower, remnant boundaries from yesterday's convection may yield additional storm development over portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and far southeastern Permian Basin. High resolution forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V profiles with abundant DCAPE (>1000 J/kg) values, suggesting that damaging winds will pose a threat with the strongest of storms. However, storm coverage this afternoon and evening is expected to be isolated. There is a very low (up to 15%) chance of a shower/storm or two near the Big Bend region Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures begin to warm up by the middle of the week (see Long Term discussion below for more details). Greening

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions expected through the remainder of the work week as weak upper-level ridging persists. High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will generally range from the upper 90s to low 100s, with Thursday anticipated to be the warmest day. Across the Rio Grande Valley, afternoon temperatures between 105 to 110 will be common on Thursday and Friday. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for extended periods, and residents are encouraged to stay hydrated and take necessary precautions. Due to limited upper-level forcing, afternoon thunderstorms will be isolated at best, with coverage around 10%. Any developing shower or thunderstorm activity will likely be confined to the higher terrain, where upslope flow and surface heating may provide sufficient lift.

The upper ridging currently centered to the west is projected to weaken over the area late Friday as it shifts toward the Four Corners region. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move into the forecast area within a northeasterly flow aloft, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. Consequently, a cooling trend is expected, with afternoon highs moderating into the low to mid-90s by Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. An outflow boundary from a previous storm complex over west-central Texas is currently approaching MAF out of the southeast. A few storms are developing along the edge of the boundary, but should remain isolated in coverage. Otherwise, southeasterly winds gusting up to 20-25 kts can be expected as this boundary continues to track west and northwestward. Winds should remain south/southeasterly through tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 96 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 68 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 90 60 92 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.