textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026 - A warming trend commences today through the middle part of the week with dry weather expected.

- High winds may impact the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains at times during the early to middle part of the week, with breezy conditions also developing over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface high pressure remains the dominant feature on the weather map early this morning. Skies are mostly clear for the most part across the majority of our forecast area except for some remnant mid level cloud cover holding over the Marfa Plateau/Big Bend region. Temperatures will be slightly below normal early this morning with lows in the 40s and 50s. The surface ridge will shift toward the Gulf Coast states today while lee troughing takes shape from southeastern Colorado into central New Mexico. Weak mid-level shortwave ridging will also continue across our forecast area today and tonight, so dry weather conditions will persist. Temperatures will trend warmer today with highs reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s over most of the area, except in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will be close to normal with readings mostly in the 50s. The surface trough is forecast to take shape over much of west Texas on Monday afternoon. A dryline is forecast to extend from the far southeastern Permian Basin to the vicinity of Terrell County by late Monday afternoon. Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds will develop over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, and into much of the Permian Basin behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Wind speeds could briefly approach high wind thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains Monday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend much warmer with afternoon highs forecast to range in the mid 80s to lower 90s over much of our region (and up to the mid 90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande). Skies will be partly sunny with mid/high level cover spreading over the region Monday, but dry weather conditions are otherwise expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to prevail over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of an upper-level low that will deepen over the Desert Southwest/Baja vicinity. Breezy westerly winds will develop over portions of our forecast area both days along and behind a surface trough that will extend from the eastern Permian Basin to the Big Bend region. We will need to monitor for potential high winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as mid level winds strengthen in association with a series of shortwave impulses moving over southeast new Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will remain near normal both days with highs generally in the upper 70s to upper 80s, except for warmer readings along the Rio Grande. A cold front is forecast to move through much of our forecast area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Cooler temperatures return behind this boundary with lows Thursday morning in the 40s to lower 50s over most locations, except in the mid 50s to lower 60s over our southern zones. Highs Thursday will also be cooler with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s over most of the region. Shortwave impulses within the southwesterly flow aloft will move across our forecast area ahead of the upper-level low over the Desert Southwest. There is uncertainty on the progression of this feature late next week, but a gradual increase in moisture/lift with embedded impulses ahead of this system will at least bring a low (10-30 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of our forecast area Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures look to remain warm late in the extended with highs generally in the 80s to lower 90s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR continues through the forecast period. Southerly winds increase and become occasionally gusty late this morning into this afternoon around MAF and FST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 79 58 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 78 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 57 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 76 53 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 49 84 51 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 58 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 78 56 88 62 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.