textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are expected across the eastern Permian Basin extending into the Big Bend this afternoon and early evening.

- Another storm system will impact the region by early to mid- week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Temperatures are warming quickly into the 80s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Highs will reach the mid 90s for most locations east of the Pecos River with cooler conditions out west where heavy rain fell last week. Increased mid level ridging will suppress most convection today, but a few storms can't be ruled out in the higher terrain south to the Big Bend.

Expect another mild night will lows in the 60s/70s as any storms dissipate quickly after sunset. Ridging breaks down Monday and southwesterly flow aloft increases as an upper trough enters the Desert SW. At the same time, Hurricane Polo will make landfall Monday afternoon/evening along the Baja coastline. SW flow aloft will transport Pacific moisture into the region while Gulf of America moisture remains in place at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across SE NM and far west Texas, especially by evening. The heaviest rain will remain west of our area for the time being, but given all the rainfall over SE NM last week, it won't take much to cause more flooding. For this reason, we will begin a Flood Watch Monday afternoon. Additional details on the upcoming storm system can be found in the long-term below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The Long Term portion of the forecast continues to look active for west Texas and southeast New Mexico. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough will be making its way towards the region. Simultaneously, the remnants of Hurricane Polo are pushed our direction as well. As this occurs, both lift and moisture increase across the area. In fact, models indicate PWATs will be pushing daily maximum values, sitting between 1.5-1.8 inches (up to 2.0 inches) for most locations. As a result, medium to high (40-80%) rain chances are forecast across much of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The highest chances (60-80%) are still maintained for southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, which will be relatively closer to the best lift. Given the quality of moisture and how much rain some portions of the area of seen in the past several days, flash flooding is going to be the primary concern. This will be especially true for southeast New Mexico and Culberson County, where the Flood Watch mentioned in the Short Term discussion will remain in effect through early Wednesday morning (though this watch may be expanded in future forecast updates as confidence increases).

The duration of this event is still somewhat questionable. The GFS has tended to be more progressive with the trough (moving the best rain chances off to our east by Wednesday afternoon) whereas the ECMWF has been slower (keeping rain chances in play through Thursday afternoon). In any case, the overall pattern bears some similarities to October 21-22nd of 2015, where a trough interacted with tropical moisture and yielded flash flooding across southeast New Mexico and much of the Permian Basin. Incidentally, that event also occurred during an El Nino. Beyond our rain chances, guidance indicates a front will move across our area during the latter half of the week. Once again, differences in the exact timing and magnitude of the front exist within the models. Nevertheless, it looks like by the end of the week highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s become commonplace (versus the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s forecast for Tuesday).

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR prevails with light winds. A few storms are possible across the Big Bend which could send outflow toward KFST this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 96 72 91 / 0 10 10 40 Carlsbad 63 89 67 83 / 0 10 70 90 Dryden 74 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 69 96 72 92 / 0 10 20 50 Guadalupe Pass 64 81 63 74 / 0 20 80 80 Hobbs 64 90 68 83 / 0 0 50 80 Marfa 61 86 63 83 / 0 20 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 94 72 89 / 0 0 10 50 Odessa 70 94 73 88 / 0 0 20 50 Wink 70 95 73 91 / 0 0 40 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.