textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 441 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- A few severe storms capable of producing quarter size hail or larger and strong winds will be possible over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and eastern Big Bend region this afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall could lead to an instance or two of flash flooding over the eastern Permian Basin late this afternoon through late this evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mid to upper-level low continues to lift from Arizona toward the Four Corners early this afternoon, with southwesterly flow aloft spreading across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas in advance of this feature. Surface winds continue to veer southeasterly to southerly across areas along and east of the Pecos River, where surface dewpoints are rising into the 50s. Isolated to scattered showers/storms have already developed late this morning/early this afternoon over the northeast Permian Basin as a shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft moved from northern portions of our CWA into the South Plains/Texas Panhandle. Additional shortwave perturbations will lift into our forecast area this afternoon and evening as the upper-level storm system translates into the southern Rockies. A dryline will become established over far southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region this afternoon and we expect storms to initiate along this feature as the shortwave perturbations move overhead. CAMs have been pretty consistent with initial storm development over the Upper Trans Pecos/western Permian Basin by 2-3 PM CST. Storms should gradually become organized as they spread eastward through much of the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Other isolated storms may develop into the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend this afternoon. Strong deep- layer shear (60-80 kt) will be in place over areas within the moist sector of our CWA this afternoon, while the atmosphere continues to de-stabilize with afternoon/early evening MLCAPE values ranging up to 1000-1500 J/KG per forecast soundings. Shear and instability profiles will mainly support a large hail threat (up to at least quarter to ping pong ball size) with supercells that develop across the Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds up to 60 mph will also be possible. Forecast soundings/hodographs do show some slight curvature in the low levels over the Permian Basin this afternoon/evening with effective storm relative helicity values up to 100-200 m2/s2. While the overall tornado threat appears to be very low, a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out with supercells that develop within this environment.

CAMs have also been relatively consistent with the development of an additional line of showers/thunderstorms over the eastern and southeastern Permian Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and I-10 corridor along the advancing dryline by late this evening (9 PM to 11 PM time frame). These storms may impact areas along and east of a Snyder-Big Lake-Bakersfield line through around 1-3 AM before finally exiting east of our area. There may be a continued severe threat with these storms. In addition to the severe threat, we are also watching for the potential of heavy rainfall/flash flooding over the eastern Permian Basin late this afternoon through late this evening as storms will have the potential to produce a quick one half to one inch of rain in a short period of time, especially with the developing line later this evening. While the threat of heavier rainfall may remain to the east of our forecast area, we will be watching our eastern counties for a heavy rain/flood threat until shortly after midnight. Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected behind the departing system Monday and Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A calm and pleasant day is in store on Tuesday. The upper low that will bring storms on Sunday and windy conditions on Monday, moves northeast of the region. Westerly flow aloft keeps temperatures above normal (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s) Tuesday afternoon. Guidance has a surface low pressure system moving across the Northern Plains which is going to send a strong cold front to the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Breezy northeasterly winds and colder air behind the front drops temperatures near to slightly below normal on Wednesday where many locations are forecast to be in the low 50s to low 60s. Warmer weather returns on Thanksgiving as highs rebound in the low 60s and low 70s regionwide, thanks to subtle upper-level ridging building in from the west. By Friday into next weekend, cluster analysis depicts an upper-level storm system developing near the California Coast to Desert Southwest region. Solutions are varied with the strength and positioning of this system which will be something to monitor over the next couple of days. Rain chances during this period remains very low (<= 10%).

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A few hours of MVFR cigs are still expected at KMAF this evening, with perhaps a little convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail as scouring west winds push moisture east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 49 71 40 71 / 50 0 0 0 Carlsbad 44 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 80 47 77 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 50 73 45 74 / 30 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 41 58 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 40 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 36 64 31 68 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 49 71 43 71 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 49 70 43 70 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 44 70 38 71 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.