textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 458 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- An approaching upper-level system brings increasing chances (20-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday evening. We will be monitoring for isolated strong to severe storms over the eastern Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level ridging largely remains in control of our weather today. At the surface, an area of high pressure is currently centered over the central Plains. This is pushing a weak cold front down through the Panhandle which is expected to drop into our region later this morning. Temperatures this afternoon warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Throughout the day, the surface high shifts east, allowing moisture to return to the region. Meanwhile, an upper-level storm system looks to track from the coast of Baja California into the central Great Plains today through Monday morning. As this system progresses toward our region, it will coincide with ample moisture to help ramp up rain chances later this weekend. Tonight, rain chances shall range between 10-20% areawide, with temperatures cooling into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Rain chances increase Sunday ahead of a dryline, ranging from 20-70%. Those west of the Pecos River will see rain chances between 20-40%, while areas east of the Pecos will see PoPs of 40-70% (highest over the northeastern Permian Basin). Given moderate shear and steep lapse rates, a storm or two may be severe Sunday afternoon over the eastern Permian Basin, down into the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. The main threats with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. This will require monitoring. Rain chances begin to taper off west to east Sunday afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

Westerly/ southwesterly winds will also become breezy to moderately strong within the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Sunday afternoon. However, winds are expected to remain below High Wind criteria. Otherwise, highs Sunday are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s across the Permian Basin, much of southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain, with 70s for almost everyone else.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

By Sunday night, an upper low will moving out of the Four Corners and moving into the Great Plains. Pooled moisture and broad ascent will allow for rain chances to continue across the region with the highest chances east of Midland/Odessa in the Permian Basin with chances tapering off further to the west. Rain amounts continue to be meager with up to an inch possible for the eastern most counties and a tenth to quarter inch (or even less) for most other locations. Once the trough leaves by late Monday, a cold front moves through on Tuesday. Temperatures tumble down towards normal with most locations settling into the 30s to low 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs struggle to reach 60F in the Permian Basin on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving day continues to look quite nice with near normal temperatures in the 60s during the afternoon and 40s at night. For Friday and Saturday, temperatures rebound slightly back above normal with the pattern remaining dry with rain chances staying near zero.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 50 64 49 / 0 20 60 60 Carlsbad 67 50 70 45 / 0 20 60 10 Dryden 75 57 71 56 / 0 30 40 40 Fort Stockton 74 56 76 50 / 0 20 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 59 47 61 41 / 0 20 40 0 Hobbs 67 47 65 42 / 0 20 60 20 Marfa 70 45 71 37 / 0 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 53 66 49 / 0 20 40 40 Odessa 70 53 66 49 / 0 20 40 30 Wink 70 53 70 45 / 0 20 40 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.