textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Drier weather and very warm temperatures today, with a warming trend in temperatures from early week through mid-week.

- Rain chances slowly increase from low (10% to 20%) early in the week to low to medium (25% to 40%) by the latter half of the week as a more monsoonal moisture flow pattern returns for the western higher terrain and adjacent foothills.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A quieter day is in store today as the mid-level ridge redevelops farther north and west and accompanying mid-level disturbances providing moisture convergence and lift for deep convection are displaced farther west of the forecast area. Southerly return flow aloft and south/southeast winds at the surface will maintain dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, while high temperatures again rise into the 95F-100F range, 100F-105F range along parts of the Pecos River valley on the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos as well as northeast Permian Basin and Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and 90F-95F for higher elevations. Lows tonight also again fall into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F higher elevations. Tomorrow, a warming trend results in temperatures a few degrees warmer than today, with highs rising into the 100F-105F range across more of the Pecos River valley from the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos, and highs rising into the 105F-110F range for the Big Bend. Increased heating of elevated terrain will allow for very low (<10%) shower/storm chances to develop over the southwest of the Pecos River, however, most locations will not receive any rain. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight are expected tomorrow as a warming trend sets in through the middle of the week. More details on that can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As core of the aforementioned mid-level ridging redevelops east over the central CONUS with accompanying large scale sinking motion, a warming trend in high temperatures is expected through mid-week. Hazardous heat is most likely during this period. Highs rise into the 100F-105F range over much of the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and northern and central Permian Basin, approaching the 95F- 100F range for higher elevations, and up to 110F for the Big Bend. Heat advisories may be warranted for the Big Bend given heat indices also up to 110F forecast for the Big Bend. Even in regions not meeting hazardous heat criteria, everyone is still encouraged to exercise proper heat safety precautions (drink plenty of water, stay out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day, postpone any physical activity to early morning or evening if possible, and do not leave pets or people unattended in vehicles). Similar to Monday, increased heating of elevated terrain with warmer daytime temperatures allow for low (10% to 20%) shower/storm chances to develop southwest of the Pecos River. Wednesday will be a similar story to Tuesday, but feature the warmest high temperatures of the week, with widespread triple digits in the western and northern lowlands, and mid to upper 90s F for higher elevations and southeast Permian Basin. Low (10% to 20%) shower/storm chances during the afternoon/evening are again expected to develop with heating of terrain. However as on Monday and Tuesday, overall storm coverage and duration remain uncertain due to weak larger scale forcing for storm organization.

The second half of the week features a cooling trend and increased shower/storm chances. Mid-level ridging develops off to the east of the area, resulting in increasing south/southwest return flow that strengthens lee troughing and accompanying near surface lift and moisture convergence for low to medium (25% to 40%) shower/storm chances from the Presidio Valley into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin. Increased clouds limiting diurnal heating bring highs Thursday back down into the 95F-100F range for the lowlands. Daily shower/storm chances persist for western higher terrain through early next weekend as mid-level troughing develops over the Intermountain West and disturbances aloft within southwest flow ahead of the trough brush the western portions of the area. High temperatures decrease further during the end of the week through next weekend with increased clouds and storm coverage, below triple digits for most of the lowlands and below the 90s F range for higher elevations on Friday and Saturday. Continued low to medium (25% to 40%) shower/storm chances each afternoon/evening southwest of the Pecos River are forecast, with locally higher (45% to 55%) rain chances over the Marfa Plateau. At this time, rainfall accumulations of a few tenths of at least a few tenths of an inch are apparent in grids for the Marfa Plateau for the latter part of the week, but this may increase in coming days. Lows do not change much from earlier in the week despite the more humid and rainy monsoonal pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions and light southeast winds continue this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 98 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 70 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 92 64 94 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 99 75 102 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.