textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms today will pose the risk for flash flooding in low-lying and urban areas. A storm or two may become strong to severe across the eastern Permian Basin capable of producing quarter-size hail and gusty winds.

- A much warmer and drier weather pattern settles over the region on Sunday continuing into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current satellite imagery shows an upper low over portions of west Texas. This has brought quite a bit of rainfall for some locations especially over the Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and eastern/northeastern Permian Basin. Radar imagery shows rain showers diminishing and moving east of the region. Today, the aforementioned upper low slowly lifts to the northeast into the TX Panhandle. At the surface, guidance has the dryline sharpening up near the TX/NM border providing abundant moisture for additional showers and storms during the afternoon. The highest chance (20-40%) of rain/storms to occur will be over the eastern half of the Permian Basin. Moderately unstable instability (1500-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and modest lapse rates will support an isolated wind and hail threat with the strongest storms. Landspouts may also develop with some of these storms as forecast soundings depict high 3CAPE and just enough 0-3km storm- relative helicity along with the support of any outflow boundaries. High Precipitable Water (PWAT) values remain prevalent, bringing a heavy rainfall threat as well. Storms are expected to remain mainly scattered to isolated in coverage, therefore, the flash flooding threat is anticipated to not be as extensive as it has been in previous days. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 80s to low 90s for most locations.

Tonight, the upper low shifts into the Central Plains, while upper- level ridging builds in from the west. This feature will provide much drier and warmer conditions Sunday. As a result, highs are expected in the 90s to low 100s for most areas. The warmer and drier weather pattern continues heading into next week. See the long-term discussion for details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Warmer and drier conditions persist early next week. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge builds over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. High temperatures shoot back into in the mid 90s to lower 100s for most locations throughout next week. These temperatures are typical for early June. Lows each night remain similar ranging from the 60s to mid 70s regionwide. The next notable rain/storm chances (20-40%) return on Wednesday across the Davis Mountains. This is thanks to an upper-level storm system developing across the western CONUS. Cluster analysis is in agreement with this upper-level system approaching from the west by Wednesday through Friday timeframe which may bring further rain/storm chances to some parts of the region. Various solutions amongst model guidance remains prevalent late next week on the positioning, strength, and track of the system. Therefore, the extent of these chances remain unclear at this time.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered showers/storms are ongoing across portions of our region. With the exception of CNM and INK, most of this activity is avoiding our sites. VFR conditions look to prevail through most of the night, although visibility and ceilings may briefly drop should showers/storms approach. Winds generally remain light out of the south and southeast tonight, becoming gusty in the vicinity of showers/storms. This being the case, expect amendments as necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 86 66 96 71 / 50 10 0 0 Carlsbad 90 65 101 69 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 92 69 99 72 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 67 100 70 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 82 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 62 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 86 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 67 97 70 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 86 67 97 71 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 89 67 100 70 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.