textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- An upper-level storm system will bring medium to high chances (50 - 90%) of showers and thunderstorms for most areas late Friday into Saturday.

- A few storms may become strong, especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Main threats with strongest storms are hail and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out localized flash flooding, especially for areas in the northern Permian Basin.

- Following breezy to gusty northwest winds Saturday afternoon/evening, winds become calmer Sunday before becoming breezy again next week.

- Spring-like temperatures with near zero rain chances persist through the extended forecast, with warmest temperatures early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows broad upper- level ridging over the region with an upper-low positioned over central California. This low is expected dig near the Baja California region which is going to provide medium to high (50-90%) rain/storm chances across much of the region late Friday afternoon and night. For today, the broad upper-level ridging places high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s for most locations. Tonight, the upper-level storm system progresses further to the east providing lift for widespread broken to overcast cloud coverage. As a result, low temperatures remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Low-level moisture from overnight cooling keeps low temperatures in the mid 50s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The current forecasted low is 54 degrees at Midland Intl Air and Space Port which would tie the record "warm" low temperature set back in 1957.

An active weather day is in store beginning Friday afternoon as scattered showers begin to develop across portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes numerous as they form into a line over the northern half of the forecast area by the evening. The greatest chances (70-90%) of precipitation lies over far southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos during this time. Forecast soundings continue to show deep layer shear (> 70 kts), weak instability (generally less than 1000 J/kg), and high PWATs (> 0.9 IN). These parameters hint at the potential of a few strong storms and heavy rainfall to occur. Hi- res guidance shows more available potential instability in the elevated layers, pointing at a hail threat for the strongest storms. Organized convection Friday evening will limit the hail threat due to weaker updrafts and precipitation loading. Guidance does show scattered cells coinciding with higher 700-500mb lapse rates in the Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon hours suggesting these areas will have the "highest" hail threat. Nonetheless, the strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of quarters. Hi-res guidance have been showing PWATs near and above the daily climatological maximum. These high PWATs indicate the threat of heavy rainfall. The flash flood threat remains very low given fast storm motions, however, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same location may result in flash flooding. The greatest potential for this will be over the northern Permian Basin. The greatest chances (40-70%) for areas receiving at least 0.5" of rainfall will be north of I-20.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the storm system advances further east into southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This will push much of the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity east of the forecast area. Additional scattered rain/storms linger across the region. Warmer than normal lows in the 40s to mid 50s are expected due to overcast skies prevalent throughout the night.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Timing of rain/storms exiting the area has again trended later in the NBM, although high-res models are still indicating the first line/cluster of storms that develop Friday evening should clear the area by sunrise Saturday. Some high-res models then again show another batch of showers/storms developing over and leeward of western higher terrain and moving east through early afternoon. Low to medium (35% to 55%) PoPs over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Saturday morning in the NBM linger over northern Lea County and northeast Permian Basin through early Saturday afternoon as well, but by Saturday evening should have exited the area as subsidence occurs on the backside of the mid to upper storm system. Rainfall totals by the time all of the showers/storms are out of the area remain highest northeast of the Pecos River, but are showing a more local and striated pattern in more recent runs of the NBM of 0.50" to 1.00" amounts within 0.25" to 0.50" amount along and northeast of the Pecos River and Stockton Plateau. Ensembles indicate a medium to high (50% to 75%) probability of rainfall at least 0.25" along and northeast of the Pecos River and Stockton Plateau, medium (45% to 65%) probability of rainfall at least 0.50" to 0.75", low (25% to 35%) probability of rainfall at least 0.75" to 1.00", and low (<20%) probability of more than 1.00" rainfall. Accompanying drying behind showers/storms and dew point temperatures dropping from the mid 40s to mid 50s F range to mid 30s to lower 40s F range overnight will be west/southwest winds shifting to northwest and becoming breezy to gusty. High wind criteria is not expected to be met, but strongest winds and highest gusts are expected over most of the area southwest of the Pecos River, especially western higher terrain into Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. With CAA occurring in the wake of the rain cooled air from the showers/storms and a Pacific cold front developing in from the northwest at the surface, highs Saturday are only forecast to rise into the 60s F north of Rio Grande basin and northwest of Terrell County and Pecos River valley in southern Permian Basin, and 50s F higher elevations, with 70s F only in the southernmost and easternmost regions of the forecast area. Under clearing skies and lighter winds Saturday night, lows are forecast to fall into the lower to mid 40s F, near freezing to mid 30s F foothills and peaks of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, with mid 40s F to lower 50s F for the Big Bend.

A much quieter weather pattern precipitation-wise develops late weekend and continues into next week. Ridging builds Sunday as near surface winds veer from northerly to southerly in response, although warmer temperatures will not return right away. Highs rise into the 60s and 70s F, lower 60s F Guadalupes and Davis Mountains for Sunday, falling into the 40s F for much of the area apart from lower 50s F in the Rio Grande basin, and mid to upper 30s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau, Pecos River valley in northern Eddy County, and northern Lea County. The core of ridging over the area is expected Monday through Tuesday. Highs Monday rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s F north of the Rio Grande basin and northeast of western higher terrain, with upper 60s to lower 70s F Guadalupes, mid 70s F Marfa Plateau, and mid to upper 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows Monday night only cool into the upper 40s to mid 50s F amidst dry air characterized by mid 20s to mid 30s F dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture. This will be followed by highs rising into the lower to mid 80s F east and southeast of 70s F highs on the northwest Permian Basin into SE NM plains and Marfa Plateau, upper 60s to lower 70s F Guadalupes, as well as mid 80s to mid 90s F along the Rio Grande. Tuesday is likely to be the warmer of the two days and lows Tuesday night may largely only cool into the 50s to lower 60s F, mid to upper 40s F western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin. Another storm system develops east/northeast from the Pacific Southwest into the Four Corners Tuesday evening through Thursday, allowing gusty winds to develop Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons over Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains into Permian Basin, with winds remaining gusty Tuesday night. Even with recent rains, this bears watching as strong winds during this time of year can strip moisture from dormant vegetation and increase fire weather risk. Slightly cooler but still warmer than average temperatures expected for the middle portion of next week as troughing from the storm system weakens ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion. However, lift and moisture with this next storm system likely remains too far north for any real chance of rain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Generally southerly winds remain light this morning, but become breezier by the afternoon (8-14 kts). Have gone ahead and included PROB30s for -SHRA at CNM, HOB, and INK for the late morning/afternoon. By the late evening and overnight hours, shower and thunderstorm coverage begins to increase. As a result, have included PROB30s for -TSRA for most sites towards the end of the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorm chances will also continue through the rest of the night for many (especially easternmost) sites. Further adjustments to timing will be made in future forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 77 53 74 51 / 0 0 20 100 Carlsbad 74 51 68 47 / 0 0 40 70 Dryden 78 56 78 55 / 0 0 10 70 Fort Stockton 79 56 77 52 / 0 0 20 90 Guadalupe Pass 66 52 62 43 / 0 0 40 60 Hobbs 74 48 70 45 / 0 0 50 90 Marfa 73 45 72 39 / 0 0 20 90 Midland Intl Airport 76 55 74 50 / 0 0 30 90 Odessa 75 55 73 50 / 0 0 30 90 Wink 75 51 72 48 / 0 0 40 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.