textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Strong cold front to bring gap winds to the Guadalupe Mountains and much below normal temperatures along with a first freeze to many Sunday morning.

- Monday and Tuesday morning temperatures remain at or below freezing for many.

- Brief warmup midweek before another cold front moves through by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Breezy southeasterly to southerly winds are ongoing this afternoon across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos thanks to a developing surface low on the leeside of the Rockies. These strengthened low-level winds are bringing moisture up into our area, resulting in widespread cloud cover over the eastern half of the area. A few showers and weak thunderstorms managed to develop this morning as well, mainly from southeastern Brewster County up to the southern Permian Basin. These isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will shift east of our area later this afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s may be anticipated for much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos due to thick cloud cover. Meanwhile, the western half of our area (where skies are generally clearer) tops out in the upper 60s and low 70s. Cloud cover/increased moisture also keeps lows warmer for the eastern half of the area tonight (upper 40s and low 50s), while the western half bottoms out in the low-to-mid 40s. Guidance continues to indicate fog development tonight through Saturday morning over the eastern Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos thanks to the enhanced low-level moisture.

A strong front arrives at our northern counties late in the day tomorrow and sweeps through the rest of the region Saturday night. Ahead of this front, compressional warming allows temperatures to get into the upper 60s and low 70s. Gusty northeasterly winds accompany the front, and the High Wind Watch has been maintained for the Guadalupe Mountains for strong gap winds. By Sunday morning, many locations in the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos are expected to experience their first freeze of the season thanks to strong cold air advection behind the front. As a result, a Freeze Watch has been issued for many zones that have yet to experience a freeze this season, excluding Central Brewster and Terrell County, along with all zones along the Rio Grande. That being said, its looking like freeze products will be needed for Central Brewster and Terrell by Monday morning.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Temperatures behind the cold front drop dramatically, with afternoon highs only in the 40s for most Sunday. Winds will also remain quite breezy, particularly during the morning hours before tapering off throughout the day. Another shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains Monday, bringing another cold front along with it. This will allow many other locations to freeze who haven't received their first freeze so far this season, prompting additional Freeze products for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Confidence in temperatures dropping to 32 degrees or lower are high (60-90%) across the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico. With that said, lows in the low-to-mid 20s on these mornings are forecasted, with mid-to- upper 30s reaching all of the way into portions of Brewster and Presidio Counties. Tuesday morning currently looks to be the coldest this season.

Temperatures finally begin to warm back up closer to normal (63 F at Midland International Air and Space Port) Tuesday and above normal Wednesday as quasi-zonal flow aloft returns and surface winds briefly become southwesterly to westerly, providing a downslope component of the wind. However, ensemble guidance indicates the potential for another cold front later in the week (probably Wednesday night), which would lower temperatures once again. It is worth noting that changes to the forecast this far out will likely be made as next week approaches. Stay tuned! Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

MVFR/IFR CIGs are currently just east of MAF and will arrive within the next couple of hours, remaining until around 15Z when winds shifting from the northwest push the CIGs east and allow for a return of VFR conditions. Lower CIGs are possible at other sites for a brief time but confidence is too low to include at this time. A cold front moving through tomorrow will shift winds from the northwest and ultimately northeast late in the TAF period.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 73 29 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 44 73 30 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 53 78 37 50 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 51 76 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 45 63 35 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 42 71 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 37 69 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 51 74 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 51 73 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 43 74 31 46 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for Crane-Davis Mountains Foothills-Ector-Loving-Midland-Pecos- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.