textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Rain chances return this afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday into Sunday, with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being the main hazards.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Upper-level troughing is evident this afternoon on water vapor imagery off the coast of California. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft has begun to develop over southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and breezy southeasterly to southerly winds at the surface continue to pump low-level moisture into the region. MAF's 12Z sounding came in with a PWAT of 0.70 inches, which is over the 75th percentile for this time of year. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase today and Saturday as a leading shortwave disturbance approaches the area. Similar to yesterday, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in and around the higher terrain west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. Also like yesterday, instability and wind shear are marginal at best (CAPE near 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear generally between 15-25 kts). Thus, the severe threat for this afternoon and evening is very low. Nevertheless, a storm or two may become briefly strong, producing gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain. Scattered showers continue tonight across portions of the area as moisture advection persists and large- scale lift starts to increase out west ahead of the advancing shortwave.

Dense cloud cover develops overnight and remnant light showers persist into Saturday morning. It remains to be seen just how much this morning activity/cloud cover will limit destabilization later in the day. That being said, Convective-Allowing Models are in relatively good agreement that a dryline will sharpen up across southeast New Mexico and extend southward towards the Rio Grande. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected off this dryline by Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear between 25-35 kts continues to suggest thunderstorms that develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds continue to be the main severe concerns (perhaps more so damaging winds, given rather weak mid- level lapse rates). By this timeframe, models indicate PWATs will have increased to 1.1-1.3 inches east of the dryline. These PWATs exceed daily maximum values, implying storms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. As a result, yet another concern for tomorrow is the flash flooding potential, especially in urban and flood-prone areas. Initially scattered convection becomes more numerous to widespread as storms move into the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos, eventually exiting our area to the east by early Sunday morning.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

By Sunday afternoon, the dryline becomes positioned over the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop off the dryline again Sunday afternoon across far eastern portions of our area. A couple could even become strong to severe. That being said, chances are low overall (10-30%), and whatever does develop would quickly move east beyond our viewing area. After Sunday, rain chances remain low overall through next week, with the best chances (10-30%) appearing in the far eastern Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos (where the better moisture will be located). Further west, winds become gusty Monday and Tuesday, especially in southeast New Mexico and in/around the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Highs remain near to above normal through the extended forecast, with most locations topping out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s daily.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Expect widespread MVFR stratus developing overnight, w/IFR cigs possible KCNM. These will scatter out around or after noon Saturday to a cu field w/bases ~ 4.5 - 6 kft AGL. Convective chances increase near the end of the forecast period, but hi-res models are all over the place on timing, so we've left them out for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 76 58 84 / 20 70 90 20 Carlsbad 60 77 56 84 / 40 60 40 0 Dryden 64 79 60 86 / 30 70 90 30 Fort Stockton 63 77 58 85 / 20 80 80 10 Guadalupe Pass 55 70 55 75 / 40 50 30 0 Hobbs 58 75 54 83 / 40 80 60 10 Marfa 52 71 47 79 / 30 80 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 75 59 84 / 20 80 80 10 Odessa 62 73 59 84 / 20 80 80 10 Wink 62 76 57 85 / 20 80 70 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.