textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Hot and dry weather conditions will continue for most of the area through next week.

- A few storms will be possible each afternoon over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Hot and mostly dry conditions prevail below an upper level ridge currently centered near the Four Corners to finish off the week. At the surface, a trough extends from the northern Panhandle southwest across SE NM. An MCV is also evident on satellite imagery just to the northeast of Lubbock. These may serve as the focal points for isolated shower/storm development later this evening. A couple of CAMs suggest a cluster of storms developing in the Panhandle and eastern NM this evening, then sweeping southward and dissipating north of our area tonight. Should this be the case, some rainfall may reach SE NM, but we'll also need to monitor for the potential of strong outflow winds in the northern Permian Basin. It should be noted that CAMs are not in agreement with this solution, thus confidence is low. For now, rain chances remain low (<20%) over SE NM this evening. Another area to keep an eye on this evening is near the Davis Mountains, as a few echoes are starting to appear on radar imagery. A storm or two may become strong, with the potential of producing gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Otherwise, temperatures tonight settle into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The ridge begins to expand east Saturday. Another shortwave rounding the edge of the ridge may bring additional, low (10%) rain chances to the eastern Permian Basin and Davis Mountains during the afternoon. Otherwise, most locations look to remain dry. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s (mainly near and along the river valleys). Saturday night lows again fall to the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Sunday through Tuesday, the center of an an upper level ridge shall hover near the Four Corners region. The ridge axis will slowly expand and drift eastward through the middle of the week before weakening and eventually setting up over the southeastern US. Until then, the forecast remains hot and dry for most of our region through midweek. Afternoon highs tick up a degree or two over each progressive day Sunday through Wednesday, generally ranging within the upper 90s to low 100s. The hottest locations will be near and along the river valleys, especially the Rio Grande, where highs are forecast to reach just shy of 110 degrees Wednesday. Most areas are expected to remain dry during the first half of the week. However, isolated showers and storms may develop each afternoon in the vicinity of the higher terrain, primarily the Davis Mountains through Tuesday. With the center of the ridge shifting to our east during the latter half of the week, better rain chances begin to enter the forecast Wednesday. Wednesday evening currently features rain chances of 10-30% over the western half of our region. Thursday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible west of the Pecos River, expanding in coverage eastward Thursday evening. Temperatures also begin a slight downward trend as we head toward the end of the week. Overnight lows through the period shall cool to the mid 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions at terminals, with a very low (<10%) chance of isolated showers/storms for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau from beginning of the period through 00Z-03Z. Southeast winds increase up to 20 knots at terminals from beginning of period through 02Z-05Z this evening, before decreasing and remaining lighter through end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 99 73 99 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 72 99 72 100 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 74 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 69 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 91 61 91 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.