textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers/storms continue through this evening across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. A storm or two may be strong to severe, posing a threat for localized flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

- Daily afternoon/evening storm chances through next week, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Rain chances remain in the forecast during the Short Term period. A few storms have developed over the Permian Basin ahead of a dryline extending from eastern NM south toward the Big Bend. Some of these may produce large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding. Storm activity gradually begins to diminish and shift eastward this evening, with rain chances mostly ending around, or just after midnight. Temperatures then slip into the 50s and 60s tonight.

Friday afternoon, the dryline sets up within the western Permian Basin, extending down toward the Big Bend. Meanwhile, additional shortwave impulses will continue to pass over our region, embedded within a large-scale trough over the western US. As such, isolated shower/storm development will be possible over the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos, where rain chances range from 10- 20%. Given drier conditions and sunnier skies overall, temperatures Friday afternoon are generally expected to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows again range within he 50s to 60s, with 60s being more prevalent than the night before.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Upper level troughing persists over the western and central US at the start of the Long Term period. Sunday into Monday, a closed low develops within the mid levels and sets up over Texas. Several rounds of shortwave impulses look to traverse over our area through the next few days. At the surface, the dryline also looks to oscillate near to within our region through at least the middle of next week. Lift from both the shortwaves and along the dryline shall combine with moisture ahead of the dryline to support at least isolated shower/storm development most afternoons. Storm development and location will depend on collocation of forcing from shortwaves and the dryline. As such, there remains high uncertainty regarding forecast rainfall totals and the potential for severe weather heading into the upcoming week. Temperatures are progged to range within the 80s to 90s across the region each afternoon, then dip into the 50s and 60s during the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Scattered TS is currently moving east of the terminals though more is expected to develop later this afternoon. Only enough confidence for PROB30 at MAF/FST though TS is also possible at INK and PEQ. Expect mostly SHRA/TS with LTG and gusty and erratic winds the main threats. IFR/MVFR conditions have either become VFR or will become VFR very shortly and should remain VFR outside of any showers. Light mist lowering VIS to 3-5SM is possible near 12Z but not included in the forecast due to low confidence.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 90 61 85 / 30 20 20 30 Carlsbad 58 93 59 91 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 63 90 65 87 / 20 20 10 50 Fort Stockton 61 91 63 89 / 20 10 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 58 82 60 83 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 55 91 57 87 / 20 0 0 20 Marfa 49 84 52 82 / 20 0 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 60 90 63 86 / 20 0 10 20 Odessa 60 90 63 86 / 20 0 10 20 Wink 59 93 62 90 / 20 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.