textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026 - Summer-like heat expected this weekend into early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees.

- A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) will develop over the region this afternoon and evening. A few storms will be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and possibly quarter size hail, especially over the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains late this afternoon and this evening.

- Breezy winds and dry conditions will bring increased fire weather concerns to the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Guadalupe Mountains through this weekend.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-50 percent chance) by the middle to latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water vapor imagery shows abundant mid and upper level moisture spreading over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas in advance of a shortwave trough progressing into New Mexico early this afternoon. Ascent ahead of the shortwave trough has interacted with the available mid-level moisture and elevated instability to aid in the development of a few high-based showers over the region this morning with occasional lightning strikes noted over portions of southeast New Mexico. Only a few sprinkles or very light rain has made it to the ground as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain dry, with surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s in place across all but the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. The shortwave trough axis will move across our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, with ascent ahead of this feature becoming more focused east of the Pecos River. We expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid to late this afternoon over far southeast New Mexico into portions of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Other very isolated high based cells may even develop over our western and southwestern zones as the shortwave trough moves over the region. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to develop into the Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and into the Trans Pecos region during the early to mid evening hours. We will generally maintain 20-30 percent coverage over these locations, with the best chance around 30 percent focused over the northeastern Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where CAMs have indicated a better signal for development with the passing shortwave. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer this afternoon and evening, with cloud bases extending quite high above 12000 ft AGL. These inverted-V profiles and high downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/KG will support damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph with convection that develops this afternoon into this evening. Storm development may become more intense over the eastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and possibly into the Lower Trans Pecos where low level moisture quality will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50s). SPC has expanded the Slight (2 of 5) risk of severe weather to encompass locations roughly along and northeast of a Lamesa-Big Spring/Coahoma line late this afternoon into this evening, while a Marginal (1 of 5)risk extends over the rest of the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos. Shear and instability may be sufficient for a couple of storms to produce hail to the size of quarters over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

The shortwave trough moves to our east tonight. A much drier west-southwest flow aloft prevails on Saturday. A dryline will extend from the eastern/southeastern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos on Saturday afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out over our far eastern zones Saturday afternoon and evening, but for now overall storm chances are too low to mention in the forecast (10% or less). Heat will otherwise continue to build into Saturday with highs on Saturday afternoon topping out in the 90s to near 100 degrees over much of the forecast area. A few locations along the Rio Grande may reach in the 101-108 degrees range Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A southwesterly flow aloft returns Sunday into Monday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Surface low pressure will develop over the vicinity of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending southward from this feature across the eastern Texas panhandle into the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region. Hot, breezy, and dry conditions will prevail over much of our CWA to the west of the dryline on Sunday, with the breeziest conditions anticipated over southeast New Mexico into the Guadalupe Mountains. High temperatures will once again reach well into the 90s outside of higher terrain areas, with a few locations in the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos potentially hitting 100 degrees. A few locations along the Rio Grande could reach between 101-109 degrees. An isolated storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out again over our far eastern zones on Sunday, but storm chances once again remain less than 10 percent. Monday looks to be a carbon copy of Sunday, with hot/dry/very breezy conditions developing again over much of the CWA. Highs reach into the mid 90s to around 102 degrees over many locations (and up to 103-109 along the Rio Grande). A pattern change occurs by Tuesday as a cold front may push toward the northern Permian Basin and potentially northern portions of southeast New Mexico. Some model guidance stalls the boundary just to the north of our CWA Tuesday afternoon with a dryline trailing southward over far eastern portions of our region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible over our far eastern zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. NBM guidance has highs a bit cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most of the area on Tuesday.

A more unsettled weather pattern may take shape by the middle to latter part of next week as deep layer moisture increases in association with a developing mid-level trough over the region. Surface moisture also increases with dewpoints returning into the 50s and perhaps 60s for some by late in the week. The surface boundary also looks to remain oriented over our region. These features along with increased moisture/ascent will bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast by mid to late next week along with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Showers and storms are gradually moving west to east across the region with CNM/HOB being the two terminals that likely will not see anymore activity into this evening. Nearby storms remain a threat for other sites to the south and east. Winds outside of any convection remain breezy out of the south to southwest with gusts between 20-25kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 99 69 99 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 63 98 63 95 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 69 95 72 100 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 99 66 99 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 87 61 84 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 96 60 95 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 55 91 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 98 68 97 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 67 98 68 97 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 64 100 64 98 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.