textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- A slow-moving upper-level system brings continued periods of hazardous winds to the Guadalupes/Delawares, the Davis Mountains, and respective adjacent plains/foothills today through at least Thursday.

- Areas where strongest winds are expected will also be at risk of near-critical to critical fire danger today through at least Friday.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through the week, followed by a cooling trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Breezy to strong winds and elevated fire weather concerns continue in the short term forecast. This thanks to a parade of shortwave troughs and associated fronts embedded within a larger-scale trough over the western CONUS. One of which shortwaves is currently near the Great Lake region, headed northeast into Canada, dragging a cold front along with it. This front has already largely cleared our region by now, but should become diffuse somewhere in central or east Texas this afternoon. Subsequently, highs this afternoon are forecast to generally reach the 70s at most locations, with 80s in portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and the Big Bend. As mentioned above, strong winds remain in the mix Wednesday as another shortwave trough approaches on the heels of the one departing. The jet core of this trough looks to lie over much of New Mexico Wednesday into Thursday evening, maintaining strong southwesterly flow aloft and the presence of a mountain wave signature. Thus, a High Wind Warning is again in effect over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains from mid morning today through Thursday evening. During this time frame, winds are expected to occasionally gust up to 80 mph. Meanwhile, winds are also expected to be strong in the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills, as well as the plains adjacent to the Guadalupes/Delawares. These areas will be under a Wind Advisory starting from mid morning today through this evening. Winds in Eddy County and eastern Culberson County are expected to occasionally gust up to 55 mph, while gusts up to 50 mph are expected in Lea County and the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills. Similar to Tuesday, strong winds will lead to issues with blowing dust and a resultant reduction in visibility. Likewise, strong winds and dry conditions have prompted another Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through the evening over southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Davis Mountains.

Wednesday night, the shortwave begins to slowly lift northeastward from the Rockies to the northern Plains, eventually pushing another cold front into our area Thursday morning. Highs Thursday top out in the 60s over southeast New Mexico and higher terrain in west Texas, 70s for most, and 80s near the Rio Grande. Despite the front, surface low pressure develops to our north ahead of yet another shortwave trough approaching from the Great Basin. This keeps the troublesome jet core nearby and leads to another day of gusty winds across the area Thursday. As of now, the strongest winds look to be confined to the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, thus the continuation of the High Wind Warning through Thursday evening. Additional fire products may be needed Thursday as dry and windy conditions continue.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Windy and dry conditions persist at the start of the long term period. A similar set up to Thursday is on tap for Friday. Another shortwave trough begins to approach our region Thursday night. Meanwhile, a jet core shall extend from New Mexico toward the northeastern CONUS Friday. Our proximity to this jet core keeps winds elevated Friday afternoon. The Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains may see another day of High Wind criteria, with the potential of Wind Advisory criteria over the adjacent plains. All the while, dry conditions shall coincide with the strong winds. As confidence in the details increases, additional fire products may be issued Friday.

Heading into the weekend, our stretch of strong winds and enhanced fire weather conditions looks to come to an end. The shortwave that caused Friday's winds pushes a cold front into the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday are generally forecast to reach the 60s, accompanied by calmer winds. Surface high pressure within the post-frontal air mass results in highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday. Through the weekend, upper level troughing gives way to ridging. By Monday, temperatures rebound mainly into the 60s, then into the 70s Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR in place at all terminals. BLDU possible during the day as winds increase, but low confidence in timing and degree of visibility reductions precluded mention with this issuance. Gusts decrease after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions persist today over the southeast New Mexico plains, the Upper Trans-Pecos, the Davis Mountains, and Gaines County. Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds are expected across southeast New Mexico and in/around the higher terrain of west Texas this afternoon. MinRHs in these areas are also expected to fall to near-critical or critical levels (near or below 15%) this afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the afternoon through this evening. Winds decrease a bit Thursday and Friday relative to today and tomorrow. Nevertheless, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue Thursday and Friday. As a result of this, locations with particularly dry fuels (the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans-Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Gaines County) may require additional fire weather products on these days. A front moves through the area Friday night into Saturday morning, which will drop temperatures closer to normal Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 46 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 81 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 41 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 70 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 71 36 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson.

NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.