textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across west Texas and southeast New Mexico today. Chances for most locations range from 30-60%. Rain chances decrease sharply by early Tuesday morning.

- Drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before additional chances of rain return by late this week.

- Near-to-below normal temperatures are expected today. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

An upper-level trough that is currently centered just east of the Four Corners region ejects to the northeast today. As this occurs, shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft will move across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. For the past couple of days, the best lift, and therefore most of the rain, has been mainly across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas, with the eastern half of the area seeing little rain outside of some isolated light showers yesterday afternoon. However, today's setup favors increased chances of measurable rainfall across most of the area. Most of these additional showers and thunderstorms (besides any remnant convection that may be ongoing from earlier this morning) will start to develop later in the morning, and will continue to develop across the area through the afternoon and evening. Chances range from 30- 60% for most locations, up to 70% for parts of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Once again, somewhat modest CAPE and reduced shear will help limit the severe threat (though a couple of strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out). Atmospheric moisture remains unseasonably high (within the 90-99th percentile), so some storms may also produce heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

Shower and storm chances plummet by early Tuesday morning as the trough moves beyond our area. Most locations stay dry tomorrow, though models hint that some isolated convection may develop in/near the Davis Mountains (10-20% chances). Behind the trough, temperatures start to warm again. Whereas highs today top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s, highs Tuesday climb back into the mid- to-upper 70s and low 80s. Lows fall into the 50s for most locations Tuesday morning. Warmer and drier conditions hang around through the beginning of the Long Term before yet another system heads our way by the end of the week.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Drier and warmer conditions continue on Wednesday as heights rise slightly behind the shortwave that is expected to pass overhead today. However, the broad upper-level trough across the western CONUS deepens, putting our area under southwest flow aloft. Several shortwaves moving within the flow yield medium to high (40- 80%) chances of showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning through Thursday night. Forecast soundings per ensemble guidance continues to depict PWAT values in the 1.0"-1.5" range (> 90th percentile), particularly across the eastern half of our CWA. This suggests a favorable environment for potentially heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding. However, details remain unclear at this time given uncertainty in where the best lift and moisture quality will setup.

By Friday, southwesterly flow aloft remains the dominant feature through at least Saturday, but the bulk of shortwave disturbances begin to move east. This maintains a low (10-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area during this timeframe. The assistance of surface troughing and upslope flow yield locally higher probabilities (40-60%) over parts of the higher terrain Friday night. Long-range guidance shows the upper-level pattern changing to quasi-zonal flow aloft, but a low (10-20%) chance of rain remains in the forecast across our northern zones for now. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at HOB, INK, PEQ, and FST. Additional rounds of scattered showers and storms are still expected later this morning into the afternoon. As a result of the scattered nature of convection (and trends being observed currently on radar), PROB30s have been included at all sites for -TSRA. MVFR CIGs are still observed at most sites (save FST and CNM). These CIGs are expected to continue to develop and persist through the afternoon, mainly at HOB, INK, MAF, and CNM. By 19-21Z, generally VFR conditions are expected outside of any SHRA and TSRA. Southeasterly winds will be lighter today than in previous days (generally sustained around 10-15 kts).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 58 78 61 / 70 40 0 0 Carlsbad 70 55 77 55 / 50 20 0 0 Dryden 73 58 78 60 / 60 30 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 57 81 59 / 60 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 52 68 54 / 50 10 10 0 Hobbs 67 54 75 56 / 40 10 0 0 Marfa 69 50 74 51 / 60 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 57 77 60 / 70 30 0 0 Odessa 69 58 77 61 / 70 30 0 0 Wink 71 56 79 59 / 50 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.