textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over the region this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being the main hazards.

- Low chances (10-30%) of isolated storms Sunday afternoon and early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over California, with its axis extending south off the coast of Baja. A couple of shortwave disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft is expected to move over southeast New Mexico and west Texas today, providing large-scale forcing for ascent. Meanwhile, a dryline is forecast to set up somewhere along our western zones this afternoon. Something that has changed since the last forecast package is Convective-Allowing Models (CAMs) are no longer depicting much sharpening of the dryline. If this were to verify, it would limit mesoscale forcing and prevent mid-level lapse rates from increasing (lowering large hail chances). Nighttime Microphysics is also showing an increase in cloud cover moving from the west. This increase in cloud cover may limit destabilization this afternoon, potentially having an impact on the severity of afternoon storms. MUCAPE values between 1000-15000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear between 25-35 kts (possibly even higher farther south in the Lower Trans-Pecos), and modest mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.0 C/km) continue to suggest that some storms may become strong to severe. The main hazards with the strongest of storms remain to be damaging winds (gusts up to 60- 70 mph) and hail (up to 1.00"). Though, given the lack of steepness in mid- level lapse rates, damaging winds look to be more of a threat. CAMs remain in relatively good agreement that showers and storms develop out west first by the late morning/early afternoon hours before moving east. Convective mode looks to be a mix between a line and semi-discrete storms. Another hazard we are keeping an eye on is the potential for localized flash flooding (especially in urban and low-lying areas) as guidance continues to trend upwards on anomalously high moisture content (PWAT values of 1.20-1.35 inches). Showers and storms are forecast to move out of the area shortly after midnight tonight.

The dryline shifts eastward by Sunday afternoon and CAMs are in good agreement that it should sharpen up across the far eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos. This is expected to bring more isolated showers and storms across the far eastern portions of our area (a couple of which could become strong to severe). However, chances look to be low (10-30%) at this point and whatever activity does develop would quickly move east of our CWA. Mid-level lapse rates do steepen Sunday afternoon and DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg suggest that damaging winds and large hail are favored once again. Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft begins to take shape by Monday morning across the region ahead of an upper-level storm system. At the surface, troughing will reside over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico promoting breezy southwesterly winds and warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. Long-range guidance has the dryline displaced over the eastern half of the forecast area Monday through Wednesday. This allows low chances (10-30%) of isolated storms across portions of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon and early evening hours each of these days. Gusty winds are expected Monday and Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains. This will also increase fire weather conditions over these locations being on the western periphery of the dryline. Highs remain near to above normal throughout the work week, with most locations topping out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s daily.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Widespread MVFR CIGS are expected this morning before lifting back to VFR this afternoon (though only ~4.0-4.5 kft). Shower/thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and evening, where a couple of storms may become strong to severe. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA into the TAFs to account for this. Amendments will be made if needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 77 59 85 61 / 80 80 20 0 Carlsbad 78 56 83 54 / 80 20 0 0 Dryden 80 61 85 64 / 70 90 30 10 Fort Stockton 79 58 85 60 / 70 70 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 71 55 74 54 / 70 10 0 0 Hobbs 74 54 82 52 / 60 60 10 0 Marfa 72 47 77 47 / 90 30 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 58 84 61 / 70 80 10 0 Odessa 76 58 84 62 / 70 80 10 0 Wink 77 57 85 56 / 70 70 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.