textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Numerous rain showers over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will move east of the region this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop over the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening.

- Brief strong westerly winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon.

- A cold front will move through the area on Sunday. Expect much cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s to settle into much of the area Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough continues to lift across far west Texas and southern/southeastern New Mexico early this morning. Regional radar imagery shows an associated convective band of moderate to locally heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms spreading over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and portions of the Big Bend region. Other isolated to scattered showers and storms are lifting over the southeast New Mexico Plains. Area rain gauges indicate that many locations have received between 0.25" to 0.5" of rain, with some locations from near the Monahans/Grandfalls/Coyanosa communities down into the Davis Mountains picking up between 0.5" to 1" of rain since late Friday evening. There could be some ponding of water on area roadways and minor flooding of creeks/streams, urban, and low lying areas where heavier rain falls overnight into early Saturday morning, but the overall flash flood potential still appears to remain limited.

The shortwave trough and associated deep layer moisture and ascent will continue to spread east over far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin overnight into early this morning before gradually shifting east of our region for the most part by mid- morning. A secondary shortwave trough spreading along the base of a deepening upper-level low over the southern Rockies and Oklahoma/Texas panhandles late this afternoon into this evening may bring a second round of scattered to locally numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of the Permian Basin, western Low Rolling Plains, and Lower Trans Pecos region this evening before most of this activity shifts to the east of our forecast area overnight tonight. We will still be monitoring for locally heavy rainfall amounts and perhaps localized flooding concerns with this activity this evening, especially over our eastern/northeastern zones where moisture and ascent will support heavier convection. A brief period of breezy westerly winds up to 30-40 mph with a few gusts around 50 mph will likely impact the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon but speeds remain below High Wind Warning criteria. Highs today are forecast to range in the 60s over much of the region, except 50s in the higher terrain and 70s along parts of the Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s.

The upper-level low will move across the Red River Valley region of Texas/Oklahoma on Sunday. One last shortwave rounding the west side of this system will support keeping a low (20-30%) chance of rain in the forecast over our far northeast zones (Snyder/Colorado City) on Sunday. Dry weather is currently anticipated over the rest of our forecast area. A cold front will push through the southeast New Mexico plains and the Permian Basin by Sunday afternoon, bringing cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s are generally anticipated over southern portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A large area of surface high pressure will settle over much of the eastern CONUS Sunday night into Monday. The associated surface ridge will nose westward into our forecast area through Monday afternoon. A solid deck of low stratus may hold strong across much of the region, especially along and east of the mountains. High temperatures on Monday still look to struggle to reach the lower to mid 50s over most locations, except for slightly warmer readings in the 60s along the Rio Grande. Another mostly cloudy and cool days with temperatures in the 50s and 60s is forecast on Tuesday, with the coolest readings over our eastern areas where clouds may persist through the day. Southwesterly flow aloft increases late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next system lifting over the Four Corners. Associated moisture will stay well to our northwest with this feature, so dry conditions will continue through midweek. Temperatures should trend slightly warmer in the 60s for most places by Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will generally persist over our forecast area through late next week with generally southerly surface flow. Increased moisture and shortwave impulses embedded in the southwesterly mid level flow may bring another low chance (20-30%) of rain to our eastern and northern areas late Thursday through late Friday. Highs otherwise look to trend slightly warmer in the upper 60s to mid 70s by Friday afternoon for most locations. Morning lows should continue to range in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A band of light to moderate SHRA near KMAF will continue to push east of the local terminals early this morning. We expect MVFR CIGs to develop at KMAF and KCNM and locally down to IFR to LIFR at KHOB and KINK early this morning. CIGs should lift to VFR by 17-19Z. VFR is forecast to prevail through the remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered SHRA or TSRA may develop over the Permian Basin near and east of KMAF this afternoon and evening. Breezy S/SE winds up to around 15 kt with occasional higher gusts this morning will shift to the SW 10-20 kt with some gusts to around 25 kt this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 52 60 45 / 40 40 0 0 Carlsbad 66 47 61 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 55 73 49 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 52 66 45 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 43 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 66 46 59 41 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 64 43 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 51 62 45 / 10 30 0 0 Odessa 67 50 62 44 / 10 30 0 0 Wink 69 49 65 44 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.