textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms across the area today through Friday will likely result in ponding of water and flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions.

- Warmer and drier following rain chances tapering off Saturday, but remaining humid across the Permian Basin into Terrell County.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The unsettling early June pattern persists into the end of the week. VIS/IR satellite earlier this morning depicted a batch of moderate to heavy showers/storms moving east/northeast over the Eddy County Plains and a line of showers/storm moving south/southeast over Lea County into the northwest Permian Basin, while moisture aloft continues to stream in from the southwest over the Rio Grande basin. 35% to 50% shower/storm chances develop over the Marfa Plateau this afternoon and spread across the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County into the evening, with high-res CAMs and ensemble reflectivity depicting clusters or lines of showers/storms moving east/northeast over the Rio Grande basin. PWATs at least 1.00", CAPE 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and decent 6-7 C/km mid to upper lapse rates above 7-8 C/km low- level lapse rates and inverted-V soundings suggest strong winds and hail in stronger storms cannot be ruled out today. However, due to weak (<25 knot) effective bulk shear limiting organization and longevity of stronger updrafts and weak (<15 knot) west/southwest steering flow through the lower to mid-levels of the troposphere interacting with southeasterly low-level moisture transport, the main threat will be heavy rain. Rainfall 0.50" to 0.75" and up to an inch in heavier and/or training storms will again pose a threat for flash flooding, especially for arroyos, foothills, and poor drainage regions. Highs again only rise into the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations as widespread low to mid-level cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Lows likewise drop into the 60s F, 50s F Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County tonight as continued widespread cloud cover limits overnight cooling.

Tomorrow, the disturbance over Baja CA that is maintaining the stream of moisture aloft will begin to tighten and consolidate into an upper low over northern MX and develop to the northeast. This will main medium 45% to 55% shower/storm chances over the Marfa Plateau into Lea County and Permian Basin, where the combination of lift and deep moisture convergence will be maximized. High-res CAMs and ensemble reflectivity depict uncertainty regarding exact timing, extent, and coverage of showers/storms however, and storms as widespread as yesterday or today are not presently indicated. This may mean lower rainfall amounts closer to a few tenths of an inch rather than 0.50" to 0.75" for most regions where rain does fall. Even so, brief heavy rainfall on saturated soils from recent wetting rains will still pose a flash flooding threat in usual low-lying and poor drainage regions. Highs stay similar to today if not a few degrees cooler, while lows remain relatively unchanged. Friday night, 45% to 60% shower/storm chances over the eastern Permian Basin (especially northeast Permian Basin) may be accompanied by additional ponding of water over low-lying roads that may be hard to see at night. Remember day or night, if you see water on the roads and think it's too deep to pass, you are probably right. Turn around, don't drown.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The beginning of the weekend will start out humid with shower/storm chances, while the rest of the weekend into the middle of next week will remain humid from the Permian Basin into Terrell County but feature much lower rain chances. Saturday, the upper low will be developing off to the northeast with the greatest lift and moisture focus shifting to the eastern part of the forecast area, while mid to upper ridging and large scale subsidence builds back in. Decreased cloud cover and evaporational cooling will allow highs to warm by a few degrees from Friday, but highs largely still remain in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations. 35% to 55% shower/storm chances will linger across the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau surrounded by low to medium 25% to 35% shower/storm chances from Terrell County into the Davis Mountains and Lea County. PWATs across the forecast area will remain at least 1.5 to 2.0 standard deviations above normal and in the 1.00" to 1.25" range. Brief heavy rainfall of a few tenths of an inch is expected. which may lead to additional ponding of water on saturated soils. However, no major flooding is forecast. Drier characterized by dew point temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s F works its way in to the west, behind the upper low across the western higher terrain into SE NM plains, even as humid air characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s F persists to the east. Lows stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s F for the Rio Grande basin and eastern parts of the forecast area due to this persistent low- level moisture that will limit overnight cooling, while lows drop into the 50s to mid 60s F elsewhere.

Rain chances finally decrease back to near zero beginning Sunday as ridging builds in and remain that way until the middle of next week. Concurrently, highs return to the 90s F, upper 90s to lower 100s F along the Pecos River valley from Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Presidio Valley (with highs up to 105F-110F in the Big Bend), while lows only fall into the mid 60s to mid 70s F. South/southeast winds 15 to 20 mph east and northeast of the Pecos River during the afternoon and evening along with persistent dew point temperatures above the mid 50s F will keep apparent temperatures feeling close to if not a degree or so warmer than air temperatures, as well as keep lows a few degrees warmer than they would be otherwise. Farther to the west, a diffuse dryline is expected to keep winds lighter and more variable, except for the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains during the afternoon/evening with heating of elevated terrain and mountain-valley breezes. A deepening trough over the western CONUS by the middle of next week will once again send mid to upper disturbances streaming southwest to northeast across parts of the area. This will again increase lift across western portions of the area, yielding increased shower/storm chances during the afternoon/evening. However, at this range, exact details regarding timing, magnitude, and extent of increased rain chances by the middle of next week remain unclear.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals. Showers and storms develop again this afternoon, but outside of FST, confidence remains low of impact at any other terminals. Amendments will be made based on radar trends. Aside from any convection, winds around 10kts from the south or southeast should persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 84 65 86 / 30 30 70 60 Carlsbad 65 87 63 89 / 10 20 20 20 Dryden 68 84 67 89 / 40 50 50 20 Fort Stockton 66 85 63 88 / 10 50 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 63 78 62 81 / 20 30 30 10 Hobbs 63 84 61 84 / 20 20 40 40 Marfa 54 78 53 83 / 50 40 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 67 82 64 85 / 20 30 60 40 Odessa 66 83 64 85 / 20 20 60 40 Wink 66 86 64 88 / 20 30 50 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.