textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- An approaching system will bring increasing rain and storm chances Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. A few storms may become severe over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe hazards, but there will also be potential for a tornado or two.

- Strong westerly winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next several days, though a cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A dry southwesterly flow aloft continues across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon in advance of an upper-level low located near the Baja region. Satellite imagery shows abundant high level cloud cover streaming over much of our forecast area within the southwesterly flow pattern. A surface trough is meanwhile developing over eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon, allowing for light S/SW winds over much of our area and warm temperatures in the 70s for most. The canopy of high level cloud cover will continue to spread over much of the forecast area through this evening before gradually decreasing late tonight into Tuesday morning. Shortwave impulses pivoting into far western portions of our CWA within increasingly difluent flow aloft ahead of the upper-level low could aid in the development of a few light rain showers from the Guadalupe Mountains into the southeast New Mexico plains late this evening into the overnight hours, but the overall probabilities for measurable precipitation remain low (10-20%) over those locations. Lows tonight will remain quite mild with readings in the 50s to lower 60s over much of the area, except 40s in the higher elevation areas.

The upper-level low will translate toward far west Texas by late Tuesday afternoon then eastward over our forecast area late Tuesday night. The latest short range model solutions and CAMs show deep layer moisture and forcing spreading into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the upper-level system, where surface dewpoints will be in the 40s and 50s. We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over these locations by early Tuesday afternoon, with additional higher-based convection potentially developing over southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn Corridor/Upper Trans Pecos region along the approaching trough axis. All the atmospheric ingredients will be in place for severe weather over locations along and east of a Lamesa-Midland/Odessa-Fort Stockton- Sanderson line where SPC has outlined a Marginal to Slight Risk (1 to 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates, surface based CAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG, and increasing deep-layer shear will initially favor supercell development with an associated large hail and damaging wind threat over the eastern Basin and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Some low curvature evident in forecast sounding hodographs could support potential for a tornado or two over eastern portions of our forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Storms may develop into a line over far eastern portions of our CWA late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening before exiting to our east by around 7-8 PM CDT.

In addition to the severe threat, a tightening MSLP gradient with the advancing Pacific front will bring increased westerly winds to areas along and west of the Pecos River Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Confidence has increased on high winds impacting the Guadalupe Mountains, where we have issued a High Wind Warning there Tuesday afternoon and evening for sustained winds of 35-45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. Wind speeds up to 25-35 mph with gusts around 50 mph are also forecast to impact the Eddy County Plains of southeast New Mexico, the Van Horn/Highway 54 Corridor, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and even the Big Bend on Tuesday. We have issued a Wind Advisory for these locations Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s over most of the area, except 60s in the mountains and a few locations along the Rio Grande reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A cold front pushes southward into west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday morning. This front brings breezy northerly winds and temperatures right around normal through the day Wednesday. Highs top out in the low-to-mid 70s for most locations, with 80s along the Rio Grande. Thursday's highs end up similar to Wednesday's, albeit a couple of degrees warmer. Nevertheless, southerly to southwesterly winds begin to redevelop by Friday and into the weekend as our area ends up under dry northwesterly flow aloft. As a result, temperatures quickly warm into the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s during this timeframe before another front approaches the area late in the weekend/during the early part of next week. Since much drier conditions dominate the Long Term Period, rain chances stay near zero.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Breezy southerly winds at terminals this evening, continuing into Tuesday. Winds shift to west/southwest and become gusty up to 30 to 35 knots for terminals on SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau. Scattered showers/storms develop 16Z into end of period, with highest chances (35% to 50%) over the central to southern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Main impacts from stronger storms at terminals will be heavy rain, strong winds, and hail, with MVFR or lower conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 84 49 73 / 10 40 30 10 Carlsbad 50 76 52 76 / 20 30 10 0 Dryden 61 85 54 84 / 20 40 30 0 Fort Stockton 60 84 54 78 / 10 40 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 50 63 46 68 / 20 30 0 0 Hobbs 53 78 48 72 / 20 30 10 0 Marfa 43 72 38 73 / 10 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 82 51 73 / 10 50 20 0 Odessa 59 81 51 73 / 10 50 10 0 Wink 55 78 51 76 / 10 40 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Tuesday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains.