textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- A few showers and storms may develop over the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau this afternoon.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible Wednesday and Thursday with many locations experiencing their first 100 degree day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Temperatures move back up into the 90s areawide today as the pattern shifts warmer and drier. A few storms may develop across the Davis Mountains this afternoon, but should not be strong in nature. Lows settle into the upper 60s to low 70s for most as winds shift southerly to southwesterly overnight. Downslope flow continues during the day on Wednesday and temperatures shoot well above normal with a large swath of temperatures expected to reach into the low to mid 100s. KMAF is expected to see its first 100F day of the year on Wednesday; the latest it has occurred since 2007 when the first 100F day occurred on June 18th of that year. An areawide Heat Advisory will likely be necessary for Wednesday as evening portions of the higher elevations reach between 95-100F. While this not currently expected to be record setting heat, it still poses a risk to those who work outside, so be sure to take plenty of breaks and drink plenty of water!

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Temperatures settle into the 70s Wednesday night before temperatures move right back into the low 100s for much of the region on Thursday. Some uncertainty remains with the exact temperature forecast for Thursday as guidance develops a surface low over the Permian Basin and has a cold front come through late in the day. The timing of this low/front combo will be what dictates highs across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. An earlier frontal timing means the daytime high is achieved earlier and is likely lower than the current forecast of low 100s across much of the area.

Rain chances increase late Thursday after the frontal passage and a weak upper level disturbance moves into the area. By Friday, chances further increase with many areas seeing a 20-50% chance of rain over the course of the day. SImilar to this past weekend, rain amounts will vary as convection will be quite scattered in nature. Temperatures moderate into the 90s for Friday and Saturday due in part to cloud cover and rain. A slightly drier and warmer pattern looks to return for Sunday and Monday as temperatures move back into the upper 90s to low 100s.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR remains at all sites. Southerly winds persist through the day sustained around 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 95 73 108 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 70 107 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 92 71 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 94 72 106 78 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 70 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 94 68 107 74 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 88 59 97 66 / 40 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 72 107 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 94 72 107 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 96 71 108 77 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.