textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- A low (<15%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening over parts of the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Little to no rainfall expected.

- A chance of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail is possible for the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Strong westerly winds forecast Wednesday, with highest winds over the Guadalupes where a High Wind Warning is in effect from 10 AM through midnight Wednesday.

- Another chance of showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Friday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Late spring-like temperatures (highs in the 80s and 90s F, 70s F higher elevations) and showers/storms close off March and begin April this year. A 15% to 25% chance of widely scattered rain showers is expected later today across the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. 1 hr NBM PoPs are consistent with previous and current runs in showing showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder developing over the Lower Trans Pecos into Terrell County late this afternoon into the evening. However, with very low PoPs and low RHs in this region, rainfall accumulations are likely to stay a few hundredths of an inch at most, for any rain that does reach the ground. Recent runs have shown up to 10% PoPs over the eastern Permian Basin late afternoon/evening as well, so pop-up showers are not out of the question for that region. Dew point temperatures remaining above the 20s F will reduce the pace of overnight cooling, with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 60s F for the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, with 40s and 50s F for the higher elevations and southwest foothills and peaks of Marfa Plateau as well as northern Lea County. Increasing disturbances aloft and accompanying lift and moisture over the area will increase the chance of showers/storms and strong winds tomorrow from 10 AM to midnight for the Guadalupes and the surrounding foothills. A dryline will form from the northwest Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos and down into the Big Bend, with gusty winds behind and ahead of the dryline. We expect a 25% to 40% chance of showers/storms east of the dryline by afternoon. Primary threat in stronger storms will be hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall up to 0.25" to 0.75" may occur in regions where stronger or more persistent storms impact the region. Storms move out of the region by midnight. Drier weather is then expected.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Warm and dry weather on Thursday will be followed by still warm weather on Friday but with a returning chance of showers/storms, and then cooler and more seasonable weather for the first weekend of April. The dryline will settle in the eastern quarter of the region for Thursday afternoon. Gusty west winds 20 mph or more continue west of the dryline over the Guadalupes into SE NM plains. Temperatures rise into the mid 80s F for most of the area by late Thursday afternoon, and fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s F by daybreak Friday. A 20% chance of showers/storms develop over the eastern part of the area by Friday afternoon, increasing to 40% to 60% over the northeast Permian Basin through the evening. We are not expecting any severe weather with these storms at this time. Rainfall amounts 0.25" to 0.75" or higher are possible with heavier or more persistent storms. Friday night through the weekend, cooler and more seasonable temperatures return, characterized by lows in the 30s and 40s F and highs in the 60s and 70s F.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light southwest flow will veer to west Wednesday afternoon, increase, and become gusty. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field Wednesday, w/bases ~ 6-10 kft AGL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Despite min RH below critical 15%, temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average, and fuel ERCs at or above the 75th percentile, 20-ft winds remaining below 20 miles per hour will maintain low fire weather conditions for today. Westerly winds increase above 20 miles per hour west of the dryline for the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, Southeast New Mexico, and northwest Permian Basin tomorrow, resulting in near critical fire weather conditions developing by afternoon as min RH stays below 15%. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Presidio Valley from tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening to account for RFD to RFW fire risk for these regions. Continued 20-ft winds near 20 miles per hour over the southern Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupes maintain fire risk Thursday through Friday. 20-ft winds 20 miles per hour or greater and from the northeast southwest of the Guadalupes and into the Presidio Valley Saturday maintain elevated to near critical fire weather conditions before lighter winds and more seasonable temperatures late weekend into early next week result in low fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 91 56 87 / 0 20 70 0 Carlsbad 60 86 53 86 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 62 92 62 88 / 0 20 60 0 Fort Stockton 63 91 59 88 / 0 20 50 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 75 52 75 / 0 10 10 0 Hobbs 54 85 49 83 / 0 10 30 0 Marfa 50 83 47 81 / 0 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 89 57 86 / 10 20 60 0 Odessa 63 88 57 85 / 0 20 50 0 Wink 58 88 54 88 / 0 10 30 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.