textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures expected Friday through Sunday with record highs possible Saturday.

- An approaching system may bring strong winds to the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Saturday into Sunday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as winds increase behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A rather pedestrian forecast is on tap for the short term. WV imagery this afternoon shows a highly-amplified upper ridge developing off the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. This pattern will persist through Friday night and beyond. Return flow will resume this afternoon, and afternoon highs are on tap to climb to normal, if not a degree or so above.

Tonight, despite mostly clear skies, a 30 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping mixing in play and overnight minimums 7-9 F above climatology.

Friday, surface winds will veer to the west, and downslope warming will increase thicknesses across the region, resulting in afternoon highs soaring into the 80s, averaging almost 15 F above normal and making it feel more like early May than mid March.

Friday night, return flow will begin advecting Gulf moisture into the east under slightly more cloud cover, increasing overnight lows to around 10 F above normal, or a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday. Afternoon temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s courtesy of an upper ridge set to translate across northern Mexico Saturday. Saturday's forecast high of 92F at MAF may challenge the 1989 record of 89F. The upper level pattern begins to shift Saturday afternoon into Sunday, when a trough dives from the Pacific Northwest into the Southern Plains. The approaching trough will produce a surface low that steers breezy westerly/southwesterly winds across portions of our region Saturday afternoon. Some models show a mountain wave signature developing over the Guadalupe/Delaware Saturday, which would possibly bring westerly winds near High Wind criteria.

The above mentioned surface low is progged to drag a cold front into our region Sunday afternoon and into the evening. Pressure falls ahead of the front, then frontal passage itself, shall produce gusty winds across most of our region through much of the day Sunday. This raises concerns for the potential of blowing dust and fire weather conditions. As such, be on the lookout in the case products for these are issued within the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures ahead of the front warm into the 80s for most, with portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and those near the Rio Grande topping out in the 90s. Temperatures behind the front are forecast to warm into the 70s. That said, actual highs Sunday will heavily depend on the cold front's location. Sunday night, winds gradually taper down and widespread lows in the 30s are expected, with quite a few locations falling near to below the freezing mark. Surface high pressure behind the front allows for calmer winds Monday, along with afternoon temperatures in the 50s to 60s. Monday night again looks to be on the chilly side as temperatures settle into the 30s to low 40s. By Tuesday, the trough begins to depart and our weather pattern starts to get influenced by a ridge building over the western CONUS. Temperatures rebound into the 70s Tuesday, then into the 80s Wednesday. No rainfall is in store during the long term period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR remains at all sites for the TAF period. Wind gusts decay around and just after sunset. Winds shift westerly late tonight and into Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 46 86 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 86 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 44 88 50 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 84 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 80 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 47 86 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 48 85 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 45 86 46 92 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.