textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs pushing up to 115 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Continued hot weather with a low (10% to 30%) chance of storms in the afternoon/evening is expected today. Highs rise to 100F-105F, 105F-110F along the Pecos River valley into Upper Trans Pecos as well as parts of the northeast Permian Basin and Rio Grande basin. Like yesterday, 110F-115F readings are indicated for the Big Bend. 110F+ highs in the Big Bend along with highs above 95F-100F for the Marfa Plateau and 105F highs with heat indices above 100F throughout the afternoon for the Rio Grande basin have prompted Heat Advisories for those regions from this afternoon through early evening. Make sure to take proper heat safety precautions. Near surface lift provided by heating of elevated terrain and strengthening lee troughing during the day will again initiate isolated to scattered storms. Mid-level disturbances skirting the edge of a ridge centered over the northern MX plateau will also focus moisture and lift aloft to sustain deep convection. SPC has again outlooked the northern part of the forecast area east of Eddy County in a MRGL risk. Damaging winds and hail remain the main threats, supported by model soundings depicting steep low-level lapse rates, DCAPE above 1000 J/kg, and low RH in the lower levels prior to onset of precipitation. Due to warmer temperatures than yesterday providing more instability, considerable damaging winds above 70 mph like that which occurred yesterday cannot be ruled out through early evening. There will also be a risk for heavy rainfall and minor flooding in heaviest storm cores given continued weak westerly steering flow aloft combined with PWATs staying in the 1.25" to 1.50" range due to continual humid, southeast upslope winds. Following diminishing storms late evening, persistent 15 to 25 mph southeast winds over the Permian Basin and into Terrell County east of lee troughing keep lows in the 75F-80F range. 70-75F lows are forecast west of the lee troughing and 65F-70F for higher terrain, where lighter winds and drier, thinner air allow greater overnight cooling.

Tomorrow features similar highs as today, and hazardous heat products will likely again be needed for the Rio Grande basin. However, lee troughing strengthening into a dryline and developing east over the northern part of the area is likely to result in triple digit heat for more of Lea County and the northwest Permian Basin, with hazardous heat concerns expanding northward into the northwesternmost parts of the SE NM plains apart from the higher elevation northern Guadalupes. Storms will once again be possible in the afternoon/evening with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Stronger southeast winds in the LLJ tomorrow night keep lows slightly warmer than tonight. Hot and dry weather under ridging will be interrupted by a mid to upper troughing deepening over the Intermountain West by early next week. Consequently, we are expecting more seasonable temperatures and increased rain chances over western higher terrain by early next week. More details on this can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Heading into Sunday, southwesterly flow aloft begins to set up across the region and rain chances increase for areas generally west of the Pecos River. Through Monday and Tuesday, afternoon highs gradually step down out of the low 100s and into the 90s for much of the area with some of the higher elevations staying in the 80s. Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday with the highest chances (40- 60%) staying over the Davis Mountains, but higher coverage of low rain chances (10-30%) for the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Given the continued rain chances over the Davis Mountains, there will be an increasing threat for localized flooding. Temperatures stay near normal through Wednesday and Thursday with the best rain chances remaining over the western half of the CWA. Rain chances start to decrease on Friday with temperatures beginning to inch back above normal.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, with winds staying elevated during the overnight hours due to the LLJ. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon Saturday, w/bases ~ 6-9 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but not likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 103 75 102 / 30 10 10 0 Carlsbad 75 104 74 102 / 20 20 20 10 Dryden 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 102 74 101 / 20 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 72 93 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 Hobbs 71 102 71 100 / 20 20 20 10 Marfa 65 95 64 93 / 20 30 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 75 101 75 100 / 30 20 20 0 Odessa 75 101 75 99 / 30 20 20 0 Wink 75 104 75 103 / 30 20 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Presidio Valley.

NM...None.