textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Low chance (~10%) of isolated storms this afternoon over the Big Bend and southeast New Mexico plains.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Mid to upper ridging persists and amplifies today into tomorrow over the Desert SW into Intermountain West, resulting in a warming trend in temperatures as increased sinking and warming motion occurs. With the mid to upper air pattern shifting and core of ridging forecast to be farther west than previously forecast, there will be room for terrain induced disturbances riding easterly flow aloft south of the ridge to focus lift and moisture convergence over northern and southern parts of the area. As a result, PoPs will be low (less than 10%) but not zero over the SE NM plains and Big Bend, where we cannot rule out a stray shower/storm today or tomorrow. However, with PWATs remaining close to 1.00", dew point depressions remaining greater than 20F, and light south/southeast winds overlain by light east/northeast winds, rainfall accumulations are likely to remain light and the main risk remaining lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and strong winds in any stronger storms. Highs today rise into the 95F-100F range even for much of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend and remain in the 85F-90F range for higher elevations. Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range southern and eastern parts of the region, 65F- 70F in cooler regions, and 60F-65F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tomorrow offers similar to today in terms of temperatures. However, highs rise a few degrees warmer into the triple digits along the Pecos River, on the Upper Trans Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and along the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, and 95F-100F highs elsewhere apart from highs into the 90F-95F range higher elevations. Tomorrow night, lows similar to today but warmer can be expected. South/southeast winds prevail through the period with dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F basins of Culberson County into northern Guadalupes, maintaining a dry but stagnant feel to the air despite the warming trend. Increased rain chances at the end of the week into the weekend are still in the forecast. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package as warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday. This is thanks to an elongated upper ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally range from the mid 90s to lower 100s Friday afternoon. Warmer temperatures between 105 to 110 degrees are expected for areas along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for prolonged periods. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and necessary precautions if outdoors! By Friday night, the ridge weakens and transitions northward into the Central Rockies. As a result, this will cool high temperatures a couple of degrees on Saturday compared to Friday. Besides the heat, surface troughing across the southern Rockies, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft creates a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the Guadalupe, Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and portions of far West Texas both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure shifts farther northeast toward the Northern High Plains. Shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge brings upper-level moisture and ascent, thus increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms areawide Sunday through early next week. Northeasterly flow aloft and southeasterly surface winds increase cloud cover, keeping afternoon highs cooler in the low to mid 90s for most locations Sunday through Tuesday.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions with south/southeast winds at terminals through the period. Winds forecast to gust up to 15 to 20 knots ore more beginning 15Z-19Z through 20Z-22Z and continuing until 00Z-02Z before decreasing back below 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 96 69 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 60 93 62 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.