textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 253 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 - Below normal temperatures are expected over much of our forecast area today behind a cold front moving through the region this morning.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40 percent chance) will develop over the I-10 corridor, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Trans Pecos region as an upper level system passes over these areas on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into the middle of next week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should average around 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Area surface observations show the cold front pushing through the southeast New Mexico plains and the northern Permian Basin as of 2 AM CDT (1 AM MDT) early this morning. The front will advance across most of the rest of our forecast area through sunrise. A shortwave impulse embedded within west-southwest flow aloft and sufficient moisture may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop over far southeastern portions of the CWA along the front this morning, particularly in Terrell County but strong or severe convection is not expected. Temperatures should fall into the 40s to low 50s over western and northern portions of the forecast area behind the front early this morning. High pressure will build into the region this morning behind the front before shifting toward the ArkLaTex and Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Surface winds should become southeasterly by this afternoon. Temperatures will trend below normal today with highs in the 70s for most, except warmer in the 80s to near 90 along the Rio Grande. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will persist from the Big Bend into the Lower Trans Pecos today with both low clouds developing this morning and the persistent stream of high cloudiness overhead. Mostly sunny skies should prevail over the rest of the region. Low level southerly flow returns along and east of the Pecos River tonight and low clouds may develop over our eastern zones overnight into early Friday morning. Lows tonight should trend a few degrees warmer.

An upper-level low located over the vicinity of northern Mexico early this morning is forecast to track eastward over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region during the day Friday. Weak ascent along with sufficient moisture and instability will allow for the potential development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the I-10 corridor, including the Van Horn area, Davis Mountains, and Marfa/Stockton plateaus Friday afternoon as the core of the upper-low passes over these areas. We will have rain chances between 20-40 percent over these locations. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may shift toward the southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Friday evening before ending late Friday night as the system progresses to the east of our region. High temperatures are otherwise forecast to trend warmer in the 80s across the majority of the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft returns over west Texas and southeast New Mexico this weekend between a broad trough over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western states. Surface low pressure will develop over eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle on Saturday, with the associated surface trough axis extending into our area. Temperatures trend much warmer Saturday afternoon, with highs ranging in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most places, with a few locations along the Rio Grande reaching near 100 degrees. A shortwave trough clipping across the central Plains Saturday night will send another cold front southward into our region on Sunday. There will not be much cooling with this particular front as temperatures may only be a few degrees cooler in our northern zones on Sunday, while temperatures still reach into the 90s over the Trans Pecos and over 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Isolated showers and thunderstorms still look possible over the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos region Sunday afternoon and evening as shortwave impulses embedded with the northwesterly flow aloft move over the area, but measurable rain chances remain very slim (less than 20 percent) with this forecast issuance. Upper-level ridging will strengthen over west Texas and southeast New Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Expect heat to build with this feature, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday when highs look to range in the mid to upper 90s over many locations, with a few of the typically warmer spots in our CWA perhaps reaching around 100 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR will remain prevalent at all terminals through the period except for a period of MVFR ceilings that may impact KFST and possibly KPEQ between 12Z-18Z Thursday morning. Confidence was only high enough to include MVFR mention in the KFST TAF with this issuance. A cold front entering the area late this evening will gradually progress south through most of the CWA through 12Z. Winds will shift northerly to northeasterly and may be gusty at times following the passage of the front. Winds should decrease and become more easterly to southeasterly late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 55 83 59 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 77 52 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 60 89 61 / 20 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 74 57 86 57 / 0 0 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 52 78 56 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 75 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 77 46 80 47 / 10 0 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 74 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 75 54 85 56 / 0 0 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.