textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Low chances (10-20%) of isolated storms Sunday afternoon and early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Elevated to near-critcal fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas Monday through at least Wednesday.

- Windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains each day Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A broad upper-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery across the southwestern CONUS and it is expected to move across the area today. Meanwhile, the dryline sharpens up during the afternoon across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, providing mesoscale forcing for areas just to the east of it. As such, there is a low (10-20%) chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the aforementioned regions. Modest MUCAPE (1000- 1500 J/kg), increased lapse rates (7.0-7.5 C/km), and 0-6 km shear of 20-30 kts suggests that a storm or two could become strong to severe. The main hazards would again be damaging winds (up to 60-70 mph) and hail (up to 1.25") given inverted-V profiles/sufficient DCAPE and steeper lapse rates. However, whatever storms do develop look to quickly move east out of our viewing area. Surface troughing to the west brings windy conditions to the higher terrain (especially the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains) late this morning through the early evening hours. Though winds are expected to remain under High Wind Warning criteria.

By Monday, an upper-level jet associated with the aforementioned trough moves across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This feature will aid in bringing windy conditions to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains again as forecast soundings depict an inverted-V profile. This allows for momentum in the upper jet to be transfered to the surface. Southwesterly downslope winds are forecast to bring dry conditions across the western half of our CWA, elevating fire weather concerns. Farther to the east, the dryline remains across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos once again. This yields low (10-20%) chances of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Trans-Pecos (particularly over Pecos and Brewster Counties). However, the severe threat looks very low at this time. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 80s for most both days (except 90s along portions of the Rio Grande and 70s in the higher terrain). Greening

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue to be prevalent over the region Monday night into Tuesday as an upper-level storm system moves across the Great Basin. At the surface, troughing remains over portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico promoting more breezy southwesterly winds and warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. Medium to long-range guidance continues to have the dryline displaced over the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. This allows low chances (10-30%) of isolated storms across portions of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher chances for rain/storms appear over the eastern half of the area Wednesday night thanks to a Pacific front sweeping through the region. There remains uncertainty on the frontal timing, so it is too far to tell whether these higher chances will pan out. Meanwhile, gusty winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains. This will also keep elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions over these locations being on the western periphery of the dryline. Highs remain near to above normal throughout the work week, with most locations topping out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s daily.

Heading into next weekend, guidance signals a cooler shift in temperatures. Cluster analysis shows quite a bit of disagreement on the upper-level pattern. One solution shows a trough moving across the Great Plains which would aid in a cooler outcome, while another solution suggests quasi- zonal flow to subtle ridging over the region favoring a slightly warmer scenario. Details for next weekend should become more clear over the next couple of days. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Light southerly to southeasterly winds give way to breezy conditions by around 17Z/18Z Sunday afternoon and become southwesterly. Winds subside by Sunday evening and shift back to southerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 87 62 89 64 / 10 0 0 20 Carlsbad 85 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 64 86 65 / 20 10 20 30 Fort Stockton 86 60 87 61 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 75 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 77 47 79 48 / 10 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 87 63 / 10 10 0 10 Odessa 85 62 87 63 / 10 10 0 10 Wink 87 56 87 59 / 10 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.