textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Very low (10-15%) chance of isolated storms for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level trough extending across the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft persists over the region into this afternoon. As the trough moves further to the east, so does the dryline. This will keep most storm development east of the forecast area. Low (10-15%) storm chances still exist late this afternoon into the early evening across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Modest lapse rates, deep layer shear, and sufficient instability allows for the potential of a strong storm, should one develop. If one does develop, it will quickly move east away from the aforementioned areas. Breezy winds and very dry conditions prompt near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast New Mexico, eastern Culberson County Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. Other than that, high temperatures range from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations.

Tonight, the aforementioned trough moves into the Upper Midwest creating quasi-zonal flow aloft. Subtle upper-level begins to take shape over the region by Thursday morning which is going to supply warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for most. Surface lee troughing develops once again over the region bringing breezy southwesterly winds. This again provides elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across similar locations previously mentioned. Another upper-level storm system looks to impact the region by Friday heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. In addition to these features surface troughing brings breezy conditions across much of the area (higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains under the mid-level jet). Strong southwesterly downslope flow helps filter in drier air behind the dryline, increasing fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area resulting in low (10-30%) chances of rain and cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday due to increased cloud cover and easterly upslope flow well behind the front. In addition to the upslope flow, shortwave troughs embedded in southwest flow aloft brings additional chances (10-40%) of rain for areas mainly south of I-20. Long-range guidance depicts the return of weak ridging by early next week, signaling warmer temperatures after this weekend. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TS has moved out of the area and will not affect any of the TAF sites for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will remain. Light southerly winds increase and become gusty to 20-25KTS while veering from the west around 18Z.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas from early this afternoon through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 87 56 89 64 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 82 48 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 87 57 90 63 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 47 86 55 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 77 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 84 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 84 50 89 60 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.