textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- An upper-level storm system brings increasing rain chances and much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

- A few storms could be severe Wednesday night, from the Western Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos. Large hail will be the main threat.

- High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Thursday night and Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The mid to upper level flow pattern will continue to transition more southwesterly on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system that will continue to deepen over southern California. Surface troughing will extend southward across much of west Texas again Tuesday afternoon, allowing for another day of much above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s across most of the region. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of the deep low pressure system that remains in place over the vicinity of southern California. Low level flow is forecast to back more southerly across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday night, which will allow low level moisture to advect westward into these areas with associated surface dewpoints rising back into the 50s to near 60 F. The combination of the low level moisture and weak ascent associated with shortwave impulses advancing over the region within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring a chance (20-50%) of rain showers back into the forecast over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday, with the best chances highlighted east of a Snyder, Big Spring, Sheffield line. Lows Tuesday night will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s over most of the area, except slightly warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s over the Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos where moisture values will be higher. Highs Wednesday should only range in the 70s with the increased cloud cover across the region, as well as with the increased rain chances over our eastern zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Wednesday night, the party will be in full swing, with the upper trough tilting negatively over SoCal/Baja. Convection is expected to be ongoing across all but the southwest zones, but thunder will initially be confined to the southeast. As the night progresses, height falls and upper-level diffluence will increase as the trough swings east, and thunder will develop west, especially after 06Z. Deep-layer shear of 50-60 kts rounding the base of the trough will develop, coincident with mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-8 C/km for a severe hail threat. NAM PWATs at KMAF are forecast to increase to the 100th percentile (~ 1.12") during the evening, approaching 3 std devs above normal, so with a little luck, we might see some rain out of this event.

Thursday, the trough goes more negative, tilting up through the Four Corners by 00Z Friday. Convective chances looks excellent across the CWA, especially east and north. The NAM develops a mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes late in the afternoon, suggesting high winds that could continue through Friday morning. An advisory or two may be needed, as well. Cloud cover, rain, and decreasing thicknesses will continue the downward trend in temperatures, and highs Thursday afternoon will average only 4-6 F above climatology.

Thursday night, as the trough passes north of the region, a scouring west wind will shunt convection east of the area by 06Z. Cooler air behind a Pac front will shave a couple of degrees off highs Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will be digging down the west coast, arriving over northern Baja Sunday morning and putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico back under southwest flow aloft. This could open up another window for convection beginning as early as Sunday, but it looks like only -SHRA that far out (which will likely change as the week progresses). Monday will close out the extended cool...only ~ 2-3 F above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, although mid/high cloud will increase after sundown. Winds will remain light and variable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 82 58 77 60 / 0 20 40 70 Carlsbad 78 53 75 52 / 0 10 10 40 Dryden 83 61 79 61 / 0 10 30 60 Fort Stockton 81 56 77 60 / 0 10 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 68 52 64 48 / 0 10 10 30 Hobbs 77 52 74 52 / 0 10 20 50 Marfa 76 44 72 47 / 0 0 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 80 58 76 60 / 0 10 30 60 Odessa 79 59 75 60 / 0 10 30 60 Wink 79 55 76 57 / 0 10 10 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.