textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 - A significant winter storm, accompanied by freezing rain, sleet, and snow, will cause widespread travel disruptions and infrastructure impacts through Sunday morning.

- Dangerous temperatures and wind chills as low as 10 below zero or more through at least Sunday night could result in hypothermia for animals and people, especially infants and the elderly.

- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes and water damage as temperatures remain below freezing into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

BLUF: The forecast remains on track for today with the main uncertainty being the predominant type of precipitation areas will see. Despite this, continue to expect impacts to travel and infrastructure through Saturday night.

Current radar shows light to moderate rain filling in across the region with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s across SE NM and the Permian Basin. As of this discussion (around 10am CST), the cold front is between Lubbock and Amarillo and moving southward. Current expectation is the front to be heading into the Permian Basin during the early afternoon. The freezing line remains north of Lubbock, but will also sink southward. Much like the previous forecast mentions, temperatures will drop to freezing across the northern Permian Basin beginning just afternoon with areas to the south following suit over the next several hours into tonight. Portions of Big Bend across to southern Presidio County stay above freezing through tonight and tomorrow.

Light to moderate rain for areas north of I-20 gradually change over to freezing rain by the late afternoon and early evening. By midnight tonight, the northern Permian Basin sees sleet begin to mix in or take over as the predominant precipitation type. Surface temperatures drop into the mid teens after midnight with 20s across the Pecos River Valley. The freezing line hangs up across the Davis Mountains down across into northern Brewster and Terrell Counties. A break in precipitation looks to occur during the early morning, but fills back in during the day on Saturday. With accumulating freezing rain, sleet, and even snow in some locations, temperatures will struggle to move up from morning lows across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Light to moderate sleet and snow can be expected during Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow/sleet amounts look to total about 1-3 inches from north of I-20 and north of the I- 10/20 split with lower amounts to the south as precipitation types change between rain, freezing rain, and sleet. A tenth of an inch to a third of an inch of ice is expected for much of the region with the exception of southern Presidio County. Exact amounts for locations are still somewhat uncertain because of changes in precipitation type and duration of precipitation. The impacts remain the same, however, as the combination of ice, accumulating sleet, and temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s will make for treacherous road conditions across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.

By Saturday night, temperatures fall into the teens and 20s, even some single digits for the northern PB. Sleet changes to snow for many areas by early Sunday morning before precipitation chances begin to decrease. Given the snow and ice that will have accumulated, highs on Sunday will struggle to move beyond the mid 20s for many with the warmest areas remaining south and west of the Davis Mountains. More details on how long the cold temperatures will last can be found below in the long term discussion.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Sunday night, weak ridging will dominate the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Under mostly clear skies, with light/variable winds, radiational cooling will yield the coldest night this forecast as lows bottom out from around 0 F on the northern fringes of the CWA to freezing in the Presidio Valley, averaging around 20 F below climatology. The Extreme Cold Advisory is set to expire at 18Z Monday, but an extension may be needed Monday night for parts of the Pecos River Valley and northern Permian Basin. This can be better evaluated at Monday night nears.

Monday, CAA continues in northerly flow, and could very well be the coldest day this forecast as highs range from the 20s north to the 50s in the Presidio Valley, almost 30 F below normal! Fortunately, return flow, albeit light, resumes late Monday afternoon, finally arresting CAA.

Tuesday through Thursday, a gradual warmup ensues as the upper ridge develops toward West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and thicknesses increase. By Thursday, highs are forecast to top out from the 40s north to the 60s in the Presidio Valley. This will be only 12-14 F below normal. Believe it or not, this looks to be the warmest day this forecast. It is the end of January, after all.

If that wasn't enough, a cold front arrives Thursday night, shaving ~ 8-10 F off highs Friday.

Unfortunately, grids after Sunday remain dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A strong cold front is approaching the northern most terminals and is expected to bring 15-20 kts sustained with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and early evening across most terminals. IFR/LIFR CIGs and VIS are anticipated as well through the afternoon. As the cold air arrives behind the aforementioned front, -RA will transition to -FZRA with HOB/MAF/INK seeing this transition the earliest in the late afternoon to early evening hours. After 06Z, confidence is increasing in a mix of sleet and freezing rain occurring at MAF and HOB, along with -FZRA beginning at PEQ. Heavier bands of this mix may reduce CIGs to LIFR conditions especially at HOB and MAF sites during this timeframe. Frequent updates will likely be needed as precipitation type/timing changes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 14 21 10 26 / 90 90 90 40 Carlsbad 24 29 16 29 / 70 90 100 60 Dryden 31 37 21 38 / 90 80 80 20 Fort Stockton 24 30 16 30 / 80 90 90 50 Guadalupe Pass 27 30 15 26 / 90 90 90 70 Hobbs 16 22 10 28 / 80 100 100 40 Marfa 33 48 24 44 / 80 90 90 70 Midland Intl Airport 17 21 12 26 / 90 100 90 40 Odessa 17 21 12 26 / 90 90 100 40 Wink 22 25 15 27 / 80 100 100 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 PM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell- Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to noon CST /11 PM MST/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for Borden- Howard-Mitchell-Scurry.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for Central Lea- Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

Extreme Cold Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.