textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Heavy rainfall in showers/storms today and tomorrow will pose the risk for flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions and make roadways impassable in some spots.

- Much warmer weather by late weekend continuing into next week, with hazardous heat possible along the Rio Grande.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The unsettled weather persists from the end of the week into the early weekend. The mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA will continue to tighten into an upper low over northern MX today and develop northeast. The lift and deep moisture convergence aloft ahead of the upper low interacting with frictional convergence from lee troughing at the surface over central parts of the forecast area will result in 1 hr PoPs 25% to 45% developing from the Marfa Plateau into southeast Permian Basin down to Terrell County this evening into tonight, and 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55% surrounded by 3 hr PoPs 25% to 35% from the Guadalupes into SE NM plains. PWATs remain 2 standard deviations above normal and ranging from at least 1.00" to 1.20" through the early weekend, so any showers/storms that develop will continue to be efficient rain producers, dropping at least a few tenths of an inch and up to 0.50" to 1.00" where heavier and/or more training storms occur. This will again pose flash flooding concerns for regions with soils that have been saturated by previous days' rainfall, as well as the usual low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions. CAPE 500-1000 J/kg, DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg, low RH in the lower troposphere, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates with the freezing layer beneath layer of maximum vertical velocity aloft suggest stronger convective cores capable of small hail and strong winds at the surface. However, west/southwest effective bulk shear remaining weak (<25 knot) will limit organization and longevity of stronger updrafts, and SPC does not have our area outlooked in a region for severe weather. Highs today stay in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations for most regions, while humid, upslope southeast winds maintain dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s F east of western higher terrain. Low-level lapse rates are forecast to increase to 7-8 C/km while mid-level lapse rates remain in the 6-7 C/km range this evening, and SRH may briefly increase above 80 m2/s2. This suggests a landspout cannot be ruled out today, especially near elevated terrain. However, the primary risk will remain heavy rain within weak (<15 knot) steering flow in the low to mid-levels, and severe convective winds at the surface should be minimized by higher cloud bases owing to inverted-V soundings. 3hr PoPs of 25% to 45% persist overnight for the northern and eastern Permian Basin as high-res CAMs and ensembles depict clusters of showers/storms over those regions tonight. Of note, ensembles are more aggressive with a messy storm mode northeast of the Marfa Plateau today and a more clustered storm mode over the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin into eastern Permian Basin tonight. Lows fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s F once more as the humid air limits overnight cooling.

Tomorrow, the upper low and accompanying lift and moisture convergence develop farther off to the northeast, placing only the easternmost Stockton Plateau and easternmost Permian Basin east of the Midland-Odessa metro in a region of 3 hr PoPs 35% to 55%, with a steep cutoff to the west and southwest. Ensembles are in better agreement with 3 hr PoPs regarding development of a linear storm mode across the eastern Permian Basin later in the day. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher over the eastern Stockton Plateau into easternmost Permian Basin are indicated, with ponding of water and flash flooding possible in usual regions prone to flash flooding. This will include roadways. Remember, if you think you cannot cross water, trust your instinct. Turn around, don't drown. SPC has Terrell County into eastern Permian Basin in a MRGL risk tomorrow, mainly due to enhanced vertical shear for organization/persistence of storms on the south/southeast side of the upper low. However, the bulk of the strongest storms should remain to the east of the forecast area, even as large hail and locally strong winds cannot be ruled out, along with a landspout near favorable storm/terrain boundaries given adequate SRH in the 0-3km layer. Clearing skies as mid to upper ridging builds in behind the upper low will allow highs to rise into the mid to upper 80s F, 90s F along the Pecos River valley and Rio Grande basin, while remaining in the 70s F for higher elevations. Lows tomorrow night fall to similar values as tonight, if not a few degrees warmer over southern and southeasternmost regions of the forecast area, as the humid air only entrenches itself more over the southeasternmost regions of the forecast area. This humid air is not going away anytime soon. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Much warmer high temperatures and drier weather with near zero rain chances the rest of the weekend into early next weekend: but remaining humid over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. That will be the story until the middle of next week. Highs Sunday quickly rise back into the lower to mid 90s F, upper 90s to lower 100s F along the Pecos River valley and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend. While dew point temperatures west of the dryline decrease as westerly winds west of a diffuse dryline redevelop along and west of western higher terrain and advect dew point temperatures in the 40s F back into the region, 15 to 20 mph southerly winds maintain dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to upper 60s F to the east, keeping a humid airmass in place despite the near zero rain chances. With hotter daytime temperatures, lows Sunday night struggle to fall below 65F everywhere north and west of the Rio Grande basin into Terrell County except for the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County, and struggle to fall below the the mid 70s F from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. Mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale subsidence strengthens Monday, allowing the zone of 100s F temperatures to expand across the SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos, and 105F-110F temperatures to expand into the Presidio Valley from the Big Bend. Dew point temperatures over eastern parts of the area will remain similar to Sunday. All of this will combine to generate hazardous heat from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, where heat advisories may be needed. Lows stay similar to Sunday night.

A mid to upper wave over the Pacific NW deeps into the northern Rockies beginning Tuesday, allowing disturbances to once again clip the region as ridging breaks down. This will allow for slightly cooler and more humid weather with still very warm highs (in the 90s F, lower 100F Eddy County Plains and Upper Trans Pecos as well as Presidio Valley into Big Bend) to return. Low 15% to 25% rain chances develop, mainly over the Marfa Plateau. This pattern continues each afternoon/evening into the end of the week as heating of elevated terrain and mountain/valley breezes interact with lee troughing and disturbances aloft that provide lift and moisture convergence. Timing of disturbances, setup of synoptic and mesoscale features, and uncertainty regarding storm/terrain interactions mean that exact details regarding showers/storms remain unclear at this point. Highs will remain in the 90s F for most until the end of the week, when hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F and above return. Lows stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s F, and each afternoon through overnight, 15 to 25 mph southeast winds northeast of the Marfa Plateau, Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos, and Marfa Plateau are expected in a LLJ to the east of the troughing/dryline. So as the central and eastern part of the area maintains a summer-like hot and humid feel to the air, it will also maintain a late spring- like wind pattern as we head into the middle of June.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions remain at all sites. Showers and storms return this afternoon and continue into this evening. Outside of any convection, winds remain between 10-15kts with occasional gusts. Amendments may be needed based on radar trends.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 65 85 67 94 / 50 50 20 0 Carlsbad 64 90 65 100 / 30 10 0 0 Dryden 67 90 69 96 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 89 67 99 / 40 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 81 64 89 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 61 85 62 96 / 30 10 10 0 Marfa 53 84 55 93 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 85 67 94 / 50 20 10 0 Odessa 64 85 67 95 / 50 10 10 0 Wink 64 88 67 99 / 30 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.