textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are forecast mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon.

- Rain chances return Friday and through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday into Sunday. Specifics to be ironed out over the coming days!

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Temperatures move just above normal areawide with many locations reaching into the 80s. A weak upper level disturbance moves in from the west and aids in showers and storms developing, mainly across areas south of the I-10 corridor and in the higher elevations. Once again, rain amounts for most locations will not be too high, but brief moderate to heavy rain can be expected out of some storms. Severe storms are not expected, but the most organized storms may contain small hail and gusty winds. Tonight and into tomorrow morning, convection decays and moves off to the east. Overnight lows move into the 50s and low 60s thanks to persistent low level moisture.

A large upper low enters the western US over the course of Friday and flow aloft shifts more southwesterly. Rain chances increase through the day for areas around the Davis Mountains and west. However, these chances will stay relatively low (<20%) before increasing on Saturday. Highs on Friday stay just above normal in the low to mid 80s for most.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Late Friday and into Saturday, rain chances begin to increase as a disturbance ahead of the main upper low over the western US moves across West Texas. Combined with moisture already in place, shower and storm coverage increases, first for areas west of the Pecos and then east of the Pecos River Saturday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show PWATs around or exceeding 1" over the eastern half of the area. This would be near or set the climatological max for April 11th at KMAF. Generally, this spells for fairly efficient rain- making storms, so heavy rain and localized flooding will need to be monitored for.

Conditions Saturday afternoon will also have the potential for severe storms as near term models are just in range of this time frame. Confidence is increasing that the most organized severe storms may be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Timing for the severe storms looks to be late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night with storms exiting the region or decaying by early Sunday morning. A similar dryline-like pattern holds for Sunday afternoon as well, but details on exact timing and locations for storms are less clear as convection from the day before may have implications on Sunday's activity.

Monday and into the middle of next week see the aforementioned larger upper low move across the Rockies and into the Great Plains just north of the area. Long range guidance shows a Pacific front moving through the region with this low and bringing drier air to region as well as elevated winds. Temperatures for early next week peak in the mid to upper 80s before the front looks to arrive late Tuesday. Temperatures would drop to near normal for Wednesday before again rebounding late next week. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast!

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Low clouds are gradually spreading in from the east leading to low MVFR CIGs at MAF. Will monitor for that same deck near FST/HOB. Winds remain southeasterly through the day with gusts up to 20-25kts. Isolated showers and storms are possible in the area, but confidence is low that this convection will be impactful to terminals. VFR in place at all terminals by late morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 81 59 82 60 / 10 10 10 20 Carlsbad 86 55 86 58 / 10 0 20 60 Dryden 82 62 82 63 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Stockton 84 60 83 62 / 20 10 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 77 55 77 55 / 10 0 20 60 Hobbs 82 55 82 56 / 10 10 10 40 Marfa 77 47 79 50 / 30 0 10 50 Midland Intl Airport 80 60 80 61 / 0 10 10 30 Odessa 80 60 80 61 / 10 10 10 30 Wink 84 59 83 61 / 10 0 10 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.