textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but finally trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the region through Monday. A few storms will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances persist through the upcoming work week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Current satellite imagery shows dry air in the mid-to-upper levels building in from the west, while shortwave troughing presides across portions of west-central Texas. As a result, storm coverage will be much less in extent today compared to yesterday. At the surface, broad areas of low pressure sets up across west Texas, allowing the chance (10-40%) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage for these storms are expected to be across portions of the Permian Basin extending into the Big Bend region. Forecast soundings continue to show inverted-V profiles, abundant instability, slight deep-layer shear (20-25 kts), and modest mid-level lapse rates supporting strong to severe downburst winds for a few storms. High PWATs, slow storm motions, and 'skinny' CAPE profiles also suggest heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding. Most locations especially across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas will remain dry. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s for most both today and tomorrow.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough advances east of the region and weak upper-level ridging takes shape. A cold front is expected to move through the Texas Panhandle at the same time. Lows tonight are forecast to stay in the 60s to mid 70s. High-resolution guidance has the front entering the northernmost portions of the area by tomorrow afternoon. Increased shower/storm coverage is expected across much of the region, thanks to this boundary and embedded shortwaves within the flow aloft. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding will be the primary threat with these storms, especially for any repeated development over the same areas. There also remains a threat of strong to severe winds with the strongest storms, mainly over portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico during the afternoon. Monday night, the front continues to move south into the Trans Pecos and higher terrain providing additional showers and storms. Slightly cooler low temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are anticipated.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A cooler and wetter pattern is in store through much of the work week into next weekend. Moist southerly to southwesterly flow aloft along with inverted surface troughing brings favorable moisture and lift for daily scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region. Cooler temperatures begin for most on Tuesday where highs range from the 80s to low 90s which will persist through the work week. Coverage of showers and storms begin to significantly increase (> 60%) for areas out west (southeast New Mexico and far West Texas) as upper-level troughing pulls in more moisture from northwest Mexico. Areas elsewhere should still expect isolated to scattered rain/storms (20-50%). Ensembles continue to signal PWATs reaching above the 90th climatological percentile, indicating the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding especially for portions of far West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Upper-level troughing will persist late work week bringing more potential rounds of heavy rainfall for previously mentioned areas. Rainfall amounts, timing, and impacts are uncertain at the moment. We will continue to monitor trends closely.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light and variable flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning Monday, w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but chances are too low for a mention attm except for KMAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 95 68 86 / 20 30 40 60 Carlsbad 68 95 68 86 / 0 10 40 70 Dryden 72 96 72 91 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 71 95 69 88 / 10 10 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 65 86 63 78 / 0 0 30 50 Hobbs 66 91 64 82 / 10 30 40 70 Marfa 61 88 61 83 / 0 20 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 71 95 69 85 / 20 30 30 60 Odessa 73 95 70 85 / 20 20 30 60 Wink 72 97 70 88 / 10 20 30 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.