textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Hot temperatures continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend, with isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers and thunderstorms possible each day over the western higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Our forecast area remains located along the western periphery of a broad upper-level ridge centered over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions this afternoon. Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a discernible plume of mid-level moisture that stretches from the southeastern New Mexico Plains and into the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Weak upslope flow along with afternoon heating and instability will allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over western portions of our forecast area again this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau where we will keep POPs between 30-40%. A few showers and storms may linger into the early evening hours before diminishing after sunset. A few of the storms that develop this afternoon and evening may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flooding given ample moisture (precipitable water values between 1.1-1.3 inches) and slow storm movement due to weak mid-level flow. Dry conditions will otherwise persist through tonight. Low temperatures will mostly range in the lower to mid 70s across the region, except for readings in the mid to upper 60s over higher elevation areas.

The broad upper-level ridge axis shifts slightly eastward on Wednesday, with remnants of TS Edouard lifting into east Texas on the western side of this moisture. This feature stays well to our east and weak ridging aloft looks to remain prevalent across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Wednesday night. Expect another day of hot temperatures with highs reaching well into the 90s to around 102 degrees across the majority of our forecast area. Another round of isolated to scattered (10-30%) showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the western CWA again Wednesday afternoon, with chances again most favored in the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau vicinity. Another warm night can be expected Wednesday night with lows mostly in the 70s, except 60s in the higher terrain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The broad upper-level ridge will remain centered over the vicinity of the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley Thursday and Friday. The ridge axis will nose westward into the southern Plains through the end of the week, allowing for continued hot temperatures in the 90s to around 103 degrees Thursday and Friday. The ridge is forecast to build westward and become centered over the southern High Plains this weekend into Monday of next week. Temperatures remain above normal Saturday-Monday with highs still reaching into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees for most. Overnight lows will continue to range in the 70s for most places, except 60s in the higher terrain. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over the higher elevations of the western CWA each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southeasterly to south/southeasterly winds up to 10-15 kts are expected this afternoon, with occasional gusts up to around 20 kts. Isolated TSRA is expected to develop west of the Pecos River, but opted not to include in TAFs due to low confidence in terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 74 100 75 / 10 10 0 10 Dryden 99 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 73 99 75 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 70 91 72 / 20 10 10 10 Hobbs 96 71 98 73 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 90 64 91 65 / 30 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.