textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- An approaching system will bring increasing rain and storm chances through early this evening. A few storms may become severe over eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe hazards.

- Strong westerly winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next several days, though a cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Observations this morning have dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s across much of the area showing low level moisture has returned to the area. An upper low approaching from northern Mexico will push dry air east, creating a dryline in the central Permian Basin that will move east through the afternoon and early evening. Convergence along the dryline and instability from the low will combine to cause convection to form this afternoon. CAPE values approach 2KJ/KG and 0-6KM shear 50-60KTs support some thunderstorms should be capable of becoming severe with large hail and strong winds the primary threats. The biggest uncertainty will be the exact location of the dryline when convective initiation occurs. The severe threat will be east of the dryline so knowing where its position is will highlight the severe threat area. At this time it appears the dryline will be east of Midland putting our eastern most counties in the main threat area. Storms could also form farther west in the drier air, closer to the upper low, but the severe threat will be much lower and will struggle to even produce much rainfall given the near surface dry air.

Temperatures this afternoon reach the upper 70s to 80s which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Gusty west winds are expected, becoming strong in the Guadalupe Mountains where a warning has been issued and very windy conditions spreading to the Davis Mountains and adjacent plains where a Wind Advisory has been issued.

Convection moves east of the CWA later this evening and dry air will help lows tonight drop into the 40s and 50s despite breezy conditions continuing. A cold front moves through Wednesday causing windy conditions to continue for another day while dropping temperatures back down to near normal with highs mostly in the 70s.

Hennig

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Winds finally diminish Wednesday night allowing for near normal low temperatures. Thursday remains seasonal before zonal, westerly mid level winds bring a quick return of well above normal temperatures Friday into Sunday. Saturday should be the warmest day of the week and several locations could see their first 90 degree day of the year. An upper trough moving across the northern plains pushes a cold front through Sunday night dropping temps back down to near normal early next week. Moisture and lift will remain away from the area so no precipitation is expected with this front. There is still some uncertainty in the timing of the front and it may move through before peak heating on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Current satellite and observations show that IFR CIG/VIS has developed at HOB and is scattered across the area near MAF. Intermittent IFR CIG/VIS expected at HOB/MAF for the next 2-3 hours but increasing southwest winds should bring VFR conditions fairly quickly. Afterward VFR conditions are expected with gusty winds providing low level turbulence concerns, especially 18-00Z. Scattered TS is possible at all TAF sites but confidence is low except at CNM where coverage will be slightly greater.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

There has been good moisture recovery this morning adding fuel moisture. A dryline will develop and move east across the Permian Basin today though minimum afternoon relative humidities only drop into the 20s preventing critical fire weather conditions from developing. Still, very windy conditions are expected that will elevate the fire weather threat this afternoon and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued. In addition, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected in the dry air west of the dryline that could provide a fire ignition source with little accompanying rainfall to moisten fuels. Winds diminish some overnight, then increase again and shift from the north early Wednesday behind a cold front moving through the area. Another Fire Danger Statement may be needed tomorrow. Winds do not finally calm down until Thursday morning alleviating the fire threat.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 49 72 38 / 60 10 0 0 Carlsbad 77 52 76 42 / 30 0 0 0 Dryden 87 54 84 47 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 84 53 78 43 / 40 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 46 68 42 / 30 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 46 71 36 / 30 0 0 0 Marfa 72 38 72 33 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 51 72 39 / 40 0 0 0 Odessa 81 51 72 40 / 50 0 0 0 Wink 79 50 75 40 / 40 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for Eddy County Plains.