textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal throughout this week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers/storms are possible each day, mainly in the higher terrain west of the Pecos River.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma, extending north up into Canada, and buttressed by a deep trough over the PacNW, and another just off the New England coast. To the south, an inverted trough is pushing west through south Texas, and will assist in keeping local thicknesses lower than they otherwise would be. Highs this afternoon should come in only 7-9 F above climatology. CAMs suggest this afternoon/evening will not be as busy as 24 hours ago, suggesting only isolated convection along the Rio Grande through early evening, if that.

Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to remain under 30 kts, minimizing mixing. This will combine w/mostly clear skies to promote relatively efficient radiational cooling, yielding minimums ~ 8-10 F above normal. This could be the coolest night this forecast.

Monday, the ridge develops a little further east, which will result in highs the same or even just a skosh lower than this afternoon's. This may be the coolest day this forecast. Isolated convection will be possible in the Davis Mountains and along the Rio Grande.

Monday night looks very similar to tonight, only lows may edge up a degree or so due to a stronger LLJ.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A trough moving across northern portions of the CONUS begins to flatten out the ridge Tuesday, and by the latter half of the week the center of the ridge is forced westward again. Temperatures change very little across west Texas and southeast New Mexico as this occurs. Highs remain in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations through the week, with upper 80s and low 90s in the higher terrain. Meanwhile, low rain chances (10-30%) become more confined to the higher terrain west of the Pecos River. Going into the weekend, models have come into a bit better agreement. Both the GFS and Euro now depict the ridge becoming dampened by an incoming trough and then being pushed east of our area by early next week. This would cause heights to gradually decrease over the region, and therefore result in at least slightly cooler temperatures by the end of the weekend/ beginning of next week. At this time, low rain chances (10- 30%) remain mainly in/near the higher terrain over the weekend, though decreasing subsidence may allow for additional rain chances elsewhere. Details will become clearer in future forecast updates, so stay tuned!

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, w/a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu fields this afternoon and Monday, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but chances are too low for a mention any terminal attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 97 72 98 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 73 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 70 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 87 61 88 / 0 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.