textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Warming trend and dry conditions beginning on Friday lasting through early next week.

- A cold front will knock temperatures back to below normal next Tuesday and Wednesday

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Nighttime Microphysics and Night Fog satellite imagery as well as observations all show much less in the way of any visibility restrictions in fog or mist early this morning. Northwest winds today are forecast to become more southwesterly by tomorrow as quasi-zonal troughed flow continues to be depicted for the next few days on both deterministic and ensemble models. This mid to upper tropospheric air pattern will aid in development of lee troughing and gusty winds from the Guadalupes into Marfa and Stockton Plateaus today and tomorrow.

Highs today will be similar to yesterday, 4 to 6 degrees above average aside from 10 to 12 degrees above average Big Bend into Terrell County. Mid to upper 50s northern Lea County into northern Permian Basin, Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, 60s aside from Presidio Valley and Rio Grande basins and Terrell County.

Fog is again possible in the northern Permian Basin tonight. Lows will be warmer than Wednesday night, mostly 40s aside from 30s in usual cooler spots. Friday, as ridging near the surface and aloft builds in and westerly downsloping winds continue, highs will rise 10 to 12 degrees above average, close to 15 degrees above average Big Bend into Terrell County, with upper 50s in highest elevations, 60s, 70s along the Pecos River and into southeast Permian Basin and Rio Grande basins, with 80s in southernmost Terrell County and the Big Bend. The warming trend continues into early next week. More on that in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

The year ends on a warm note as westerly mid level winds combined with warm air advection in the lower levels cause temperatures to reach near record levels by Monday. Highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday increase to well into the 70s and even lower 80s by Monday. There could be some fire weather concerns Monday as relative humidities drop into the low teens and upper single digits, but modest winds should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing.

Over the weekend an upper low over southern Canada slowly moves east into the Great Lakes region. The jet stream buckles just enough over the central Plains to allow for colder Canadian air to move south into the forecast area Monday night and early Tuesday bringing an end to the unseasonably warm weather. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the 50s and 60s, much closer to normal to begin the new year. All upper level lift and moisture remain out of the area so no rainfall is expected.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

IFR VIS and CIGs possible at HOB until 15Z, with reduced visibilities in fog and mist. Some mist reducing VIS and CIGs to MVFR possible over the Permian Basin including MAF into 14Z-16Z as well. VFR VIS and CIGs at all terminals expected after 17Z today. Northwest winds increase in speed by 17Z-18Z, decreasing by 22Z-00Z, and then shifting to more southwesterly by 03Z-04Z Friday and continuing into end of period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 41 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 38 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 65 40 70 42 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.