textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but finally trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into much of next week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A shortwave trough embedded within W-SW flow aloft moving across west Texas this evening, along with a southward moving outflow boundary has resulted in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the northern and eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. This activity is still ongoing from north of Big Lake to near Big Spring and in the vicinity of Snyder/Colorado City as of 2 AM CDT. The general consensus in the CAMs is that these showers and storms should gradually diminish in coverage through 4 AM, but we may see additional isolated showers/storms form over western portions of our forecast area through the early morning hours with the approach of another impulse and weak surface boundary currently initiating convection out by El Paso. Will keep low POPs between 10-30% in place over most of our forecast area through the overnight and early morning hours. A shortwave trough will continue to move across our forecast area through the day today, while weak surface low pressure develops over the vicinity of west Texas this afternoon. Models are still in pretty good agreement with keeping deeper moisture aligned from the Permian Basin down into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend today, and we expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over these locations again this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates, plentiful CAPE (and downdraft CAPE), and perhaps a slight enhancement of deep layer shear around 20 kt along the shortwave trough may support a storms capable of producing strong to severe downburst winds again this afternoon and evening. A few storms may produce heavy rainfall which could once again lead to localized flooding. Highs today should reach into the mid to upper 90s over much of the area, except mid 80s to around 90 degrees in the higher elevations, with a few spots along the Rio Grande reaching over 100 degrees. Lows tonight will range in the 60s to lower 70s.

The latest forecast guidance remains in agreement with bringing a front into the Texas panhandle late tonight. This boundary may advance into portions of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin by Monday afternoon. Shortwave impulses rounding the top of the upper-level ridge that is forecast to be centered over the vicinity of northern Mexico Monday afternoon should support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50%) along the boundary over far southeast New Mexico and the central and northern Permian Basin by Monday afternoon. This activity may continue to develop into the rest of southeast New Mexico and trough much of the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Guadalupe Mountains by Monday evening as the boundary slowly moves south over this portion of our region. Plentiful deep layer moisture in place over the area along with potential for some training of storms along the boundary could result in pockets of heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding. Some storms will also be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes. Highs Monday stay very warm with readings in the 90s for most places, except in the mid to upper 80s over the higher elevations and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The extended forecast continues to feature increased rain chances over much of our region along with cooler temperatures. Weak ridging aloft will be in place over our forecast area on Tuesday, but the surface boundary will remain roughly oriented along the Pecos River Valley. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop along this boundary again Tuesday afternoon. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma by Tuesday evening as another upper-level trough lifts across the Great Basin. Medium range model solutions remain in agreement with bringing a slug of tropical moisture northward from Mexico into far west Texas and much of New Mexico between these features Tuesday night into Wednesday. Deep moisture remains in place Wednesday night into Thursday night underneath increasing southwesterly flow aloft. This pattern will support a very good chance of showers and thunderstorms (>60%) over much of our western and northwestern CWA late Tuesday through late Thursday, while other isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-50%) will be possible through this period over much of the rest of the forecast area. The deep moisture and persistent shower/thunderstorm potential may result in an increased potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over some of our western and northwestern counties, including the southeast New Mexico plains and the higher terrain areas of west Texas later this week. We will continue to monitor trends closely. Moist southwesterly flow aloft will persist into late week, so chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the latter part of the extended forecast. Highs will trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week with values actually closer to what is normal for late September (generally in the 80s for most, except mid to upper 70s in the higher terrain and 90s along the Rio Grande). Overnight lows will also be cooler with readings generally in the 60s, except for 50s in the higher elevations and lower to mid 70s along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period with light winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos region this afternoon and evening. We kept a PROB30 mention for TSRA and gusty winds at KMAF this afternoon into early this evening, but confidence remained to low to include mention at other terminals with this forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 70 95 68 / 30 30 30 50 Carlsbad 95 68 94 67 / 10 10 10 50 Dryden 96 73 97 72 / 20 20 0 10 Fort Stockton 95 70 95 69 / 20 20 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 85 66 86 63 / 10 10 0 30 Hobbs 93 66 90 64 / 10 10 30 50 Marfa 87 61 88 61 / 40 30 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 95 70 94 68 / 20 30 20 40 Odessa 95 71 94 69 / 20 30 20 40 Wink 97 70 96 70 / 10 20 10 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.