textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, but a gradual cooling trend develops especially during the latter half of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances also increase again over portions of southeast New Mexico this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

After a couple days of widespread triple digit heat, temperatures finally cool a few degrees as the upper-level ridge moves east. While most locations can expect to see highs in the upper 90s today and Monday (mid 80s to low 90s in the mountains), triple digit highs become confined to the river valleys and northeast Permian Basin. Surface troughing and upslope flow yields low (10-20%) shower/storm chances across the higher terrain and portions of southeast New Mexico both days. Gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall would be the primary threats should a storm become strong. Breezy conditions associated with the surface trough (and LLJ tonight) can also be anticipated.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The Long Term forecast remains relatively unchanged. The center of the upper-level ridge remains east of our area through much of this week. However, because we will be on the western periphery of the ridge, temperatures stay above normal. Highs in the mid-to-upper 90s will be commonplace Tuesday and Wednesday, with 100s confined mainly to the river valleys. By the latter half of the week, the ridge starts to shift westward again, but is dampened by shortwaves moving across northern portions of the CONUS. As a result, temperatures tick down a degree or two Thursday, and by Friday most locations top out in the low-to-mid 90s. Surface troughing and pulses rounding the ridge will also yield increasing rain chances across mainly the western half of the region and in/near the higher terrain. Chances for these areas range from 30-60% in general. Going into the weekend, guidance continues to depict a front pushing down towards west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This front would help further cool temperatures across the region, and would encourage increasing rain chances across a larger portion of the area. However, exact details regarding the timing of the front, rain chances, and the extent of cooling remain uncertain at this time. Given this uncertainty, the NBM is justifiably a bit conservative, showing highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations Saturday and Sunday, which would at least be near climatology for this time of year. We will continue to monitor trends, so stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to continue, with gusts between 20- 23 kts. Convection is possible this afternoon/evening across portions of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. However, opted to exclude any mention of TSRA due to low confidence in terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 74 100 72 / 20 10 10 30 Dryden 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 93 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 20 Hobbs 99 71 97 71 / 10 10 10 0 Marfa 93 64 91 63 / 20 0 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.