textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- An upper-level storm system will bring medium to high chances (40-90%) of showers/storms for most areas late tonight into Saturday.

- A few storms may be strong to severe across the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Main threats with strongest storms are hail and heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out localized flash flooding, especially for areas in the northern Permian Basin.

- Following breezy to gusty northwest winds Saturday afternoon/evening, winds become calmer Sunday before becoming breezy again next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper level low will make its approach from the west over the course of the day today. Out ahead of this low, moisture and instability will gradually increase. Shower and storm chances increase beginning this afternoon mainly across southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains. Hi res guidance shows two rounds of activity with discreet showers and storms developing first during the late afternoon and then a line of storms moving from west to east across the CWA well after sunset. A few storms may be strong to severe as modest lapse rates (>7C/km) and the aforementioned instability make for a somewhat favorable environment for large hail (around an inch or greater). Guidance also shows PWATs (precipitable water) hovering between .75 and 1" during the day today and into tonight. This amount of moisture combined with two possible rounds of storms make for a favorable environment for localized flash flooding, particularly in more urban areas and normal low lying areas that are prone to flooding.

Showers and storms will gradually move out of the area by mid to late Saturday morning or slightly sooner depending on the track and speed of the main upper low. A dry cold front follows behind and ushers in somewhat drier air later in the day on Saturday. Temperatures do not look to change significantly with the passage of this front. Breezy conditions last through the day and the high terrain stays cooler in the 50s and 60s with highs near 70F generally east of a line from the TX/NM border south into Big Bend. Dry conditions are expected to end the short term forecast.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain chances diminish overnight Saturday as the storm system departs to our east and ridging returns. Winds also taper down through the night as the cold front associated with the trough continues its eastward march. Temperatures Saturday night generally dip into the 40s, with portions of southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations slipping into the 30s. Northwesterly flow aloft keeps Sunday's highs in the 60s/70s, just a few degrees warmer than the previous day. Monday, the ridge axis moves off to our east and a lee trough develops north of the Panhandle. The resultant surface low steers southerly and southwesterly winds across our region. Highs Monday warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s, with some spots along the Rio Grande potentially reaching the low 90s.

Winds and temperatures ramp up Tuesday in response to an approaching longwave trough that looks to span across much of the western CONUS through the upcoming week. Highs in the 80s become more prominent Tuesday afternoon, along with more areas near and along the Rio Grande reaching the 90s. Some long-range guidance suggests this system will be slow to progress eastward due to a ridge near the southeastern CONUS. There's also an indication of several shortwave troughs developing within the broader trough, one of which sends a cold front into the area midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday look to feature breezy to windy conditions. The strongest winds would likely be near the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains, especially on Wednesday, as a cold front pushes in. The driving upper-level feature for this front will be too far to our north to push in much colder air. As such, only a few degrees will be shaved off of Wednesday's highs compared to Tuesday's. Lower heights due to troughing persist Thursday and temperatures continue a downward trend, topping out in the upper 60s to 70s for most. However, our southernmost counties are still forecast to remain in the 80s Thursday afternoon. As it stands, no precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR remains at all terminals. Have kept PROB30s in for all but FST where confidence remains lowest on timing of impacts. Showers and storms develop this afternoon with a second round of activity moving through after 00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 51 70 43 / 20 90 60 10 Carlsbad 70 46 68 40 / 30 50 10 0 Dryden 78 57 77 50 / 0 50 40 0 Fort Stockton 78 52 69 45 / 20 80 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 42 57 42 / 30 50 10 0 Hobbs 70 46 66 38 / 50 80 20 10 Marfa 72 40 61 32 / 20 80 40 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 51 69 44 / 20 90 40 10 Odessa 73 51 68 43 / 30 90 30 10 Wink 73 48 69 41 / 40 80 30 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.