textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Best storm chances continue diminishing and shifting west of the Pecos through Friday. Chances will be optimal in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected today and Friday, before a warm-up on Independence Day. This will be followed by slightly cooler conditions through Monday, then a warmup again Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from British Columbia south through SoCal, keeping West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. To the east, an upper ridge remains centered over Kentucky. Today, the western edge of this feature is forecast to start developing west into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in increasing thicknesses and a consequent warming trend. However, for those who enjoy cooler temperatures, today's highs, like yesterday's, are set to come in below climatology by a degree or two. Convective coverage yesterday was somewhat limited, and a similar scenario is anticipated today as the ridge builds in from the east. Most of today's activity should be limited to the mountains west of the Pecos.

Tonight, convection should diminish rather quickly, despite the redevelopment of a 35 kt LLJ. This LLJ will keep the boundary layer well-mixed, combining w/plenty of mid/high cloud in southwest flow aloft to keep overnight minimums ~ 4-6 F above normal. Unfortunately, these unseasonably warm lows will persist through the extended.

Friday, the upper ridge continues building west, adding 2-3 F to today's highs and further restricting convective activity to the mountains. By this time, southwest flow aloft will be waning, and any convective activity will be due to orographics.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

On Independence Day, highs will increase further, to around 5 F or so above normal. Other than an isolated afternoon cell or two in the Davis Mountains, conditions look dry. Over the weekend, the ridge passes through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, settling into Baja/Sonora going into next week. This will result in northerly flow over the area, decreasing thicknesses, and slightly cooler temperatures each day. By Wednesday, the LREF has the ridge centered over SoCal/Arizona, continuing northerly flow aloft over the area. Thicknesses/temperatures begin trending upwards again after Monday, with Wednesday rounding out the extended similar to Independence Day. W/the ridge parked out west, random impulses will move south down the east side of this feature, resulting in minimal (but non-zero) chances of convection each day. However, best chances will remain invof the Davis Mountains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in areas of convection. Return flow will prevail, elevated during the overnight hours due to a 35 kt recurring LLJ. Plenty of high cloud will be present in SW flow aloft, but forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 95 74 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 94 70 97 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 97 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 87 66 89 68 / 20 0 10 10 Hobbs 90 68 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 85 60 87 61 / 40 10 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 91 73 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 91 73 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 92 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.