textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly along and west of the Pecos. A few storms may be severe, accompanied by large hail and damaging wind, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding, as well.

- Rain chances (generally in the 40-70% range) continue for mainly the northwestern half of the area into early next week, peaking Monday afternoon.

- Near- to below-normal temperatures are expected through Monday. Warmer/drier weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday a cooler/wetter pattern emerges by late in the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A wetter/cooler pattern is on tap over the next 36 hours. WV imagery this afternoon shows a deep trough digging through Arizona, and has nudged a ridge to the east into the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under increasingly-progressive southwest flow aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the trough will increase return flow over the next 48 hours or so, advecting beaucoup Gulf moisture into the region. Decreasing thicknesses and increasing boundary layer moisture will result in a cooling trend, at least as far as highs go. Area radars already show convection developing on the leading edge of the trough in central New Mexico, and closer to home, weak convection has been trying to develop in Southeast New Mexico. As the trough digs east, 35-45 kts of deep layer shear is forecast to encroach into the northwest CWA, which will combine w/steep mid-level lapse rates to render a few cells possibly severe later this afternoon. Hodographs still suggest an isolated tornado can't be ruled out on the western fringes of the CWA.

Tonight, the upper trough begins ejecting towards the Four Corners. A strong LLJ approaching 55 kts is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed. This will combine with abundant cloud cover to keep overnight minimums an average of over 15 F above climatology, a degree or so above this morning's lows. Convection, possibly severe, will be ongoing and developing east. CAMs decrease mid-level lapse rate throughout the evening, and we expect the severe threat to diminish by midnight or earlier.

Sunday, with breezy return flow continuing, the column if forecast to pretty much saturate, w/NAM PWATs at KMAF increasing to 1.36" by 15Z. The 100th percentile is 1.35" and the daily record is 1.14". Thus, the potential for locally heavy rainfall will be beneficial for those who get it. Unfortunately, hodographs and temperature profiles will continue the possibility of large hail, mainly over Southeast New Mexico and areas of West Texas to the south. This activity will combine w/overcast skies and decreased thicknesses to keep afternoon highs an average of a degree or so below normal.

Sunday night, the upper begins tilting negative through Colorado, and convection continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with Southeast New Mexico having the best chances. The LLJ cranks up again, but this time only to around 40 kts or so, allowing for overnight lows a degree or so cooler than tonight's.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Monday, as the trough continues ejecting intl the upper Midwest, the tail end of it moves through West texas and Southeast New Mexico, yielding the coldest day this forecast as highs struggle to come in ~ 3-4 F below normal, leaving most locations in the upper 60s and lower 70s. As the trough moves through, Monday afternoon looks to be the best chance at rain this forecast.

Tuesday/Wednesday, temperatures will rebound 5-10 degrees or so as a dry southwest flow aloft develops over the region. An upper trough will begin strengthening over the PacNW, then digging down the west coast as the week progresses. Rain chances begin ramping up again beginning Thursday as shortwave disturbances move through southwest flow aloft, peaking Friday night as a weak Pac front moves through.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

TS expected to move into CNM around 01Z spreading east to other terminals through around 12Z. Some severe near CNM but weakening farther east. MVFR CIGs arrive along with TS and continue through the end of the TAF period, occasionally dropping to IFR at some sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 64 76 62 73 / 20 20 10 60 Carlsbad 59 74 58 70 / 80 50 70 70 Dryden 63 74 62 73 / 30 20 20 50 Fort Stockton 63 75 61 74 / 20 20 30 70 Guadalupe Pass 56 68 55 64 / 50 40 70 80 Hobbs 58 68 57 66 / 60 60 50 80 Marfa 55 73 54 70 / 40 20 20 80 Midland Intl Airport 63 72 62 70 / 30 20 10 70 Odessa 64 72 62 70 / 40 20 20 70 Wink 63 75 61 72 / 30 30 30 70

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.