textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs pushing up to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the western Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Widespread triple digit heat continues today and tomorrow as the upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Afternoon highs are forecast to be similar to yesterday's, with locations in the Upper Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande pushing 110 (up to 113 in portions of the Big Bend) degrees. Have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for locations along the Rio Grande to account for the intense heat. Be sure to continue practicing heat safety precautions to protect yourself from the heat, especially while hiking or camping.

Lee troughing extends from an area of surface low pressure in southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend region this afternoon, yielding breezy conditions across the eastern half of our CWA. Weak disturbances aloft, daytime heating, and frictional convergence near the aforementioned low pressure system should provide enough vertical motion to offset the large-scale sinking air from above. These features yield low (10-30%) chances of showers/storms across portions of the western Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and higher terrain this afternoon. Convection is expected to continue into the early evening hours (probably expanding a little farther east into the Permian Basin) as the low-level jet (LLJ) keep winds elevated. Though chances are low, a couple of storms may be strong to severe. Given steep lapse rates (8.0-9.0 C/km) and favorable DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg), damaging winds and marginally large hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. Additional chances (10-30%) of showers and storms can be expected for much of the same areas tomorrow afternoon as well. Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The triple digit heat with daily afternoon/evening isolated to scattered storms continue this weekend. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge of high pressure hovering over the region. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday afternoons will generally range from the mid 90s to triple digits, with the exception of highs in the 105-115F range across the river valleys. This may prompt the issuance of additional heat products for these areas during the weekend. Disturbances within the flow aloft, upslope flow, and surface troughing over the southern Rockies yields low (10-30%) storm chances across the Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico, northwest Permian Basin, and portions of far west Texas each afternoon and early evening. Coverage of storms increase Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge shifts eastward due to an upper-level storm approaching from the western US.

By early next week, the aforementioned upper storm system shifts further eastward. As a result, slightly cooler temperatures are expected where most locations should stay under the triple digits. Weak southwest flow aloft, persistent lee troughing, and upslope flow brings rain/storm chances (10-40%, highest across Davis Mountains) for the western half of the forecast area, along with breezy southerly to southeasterly winds for many locations in the plains. Ensemble guidance depicts Precipitable Water values (PWATs) near to slightly above the 90th climatological percentile through Wednesday, indicating the threat of heavy rainfall. Given the isolated to scattered coverage of these storms, only a few areas look to receive locally heavy rainfall. Low temperatures each night are expected to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s regionwide.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Breezy (and occasional gusty) southeasterly to southerly winds continue throughout the period. There is a low (10-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, but have opted to leave out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty in timing and terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 102 75 104 76 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 104 73 104 74 / 30 20 20 10 Dryden 102 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 74 105 74 / 20 0 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 96 72 95 71 / 20 20 20 20 Hobbs 102 70 103 72 / 20 20 20 10 Marfa 98 66 97 65 / 30 0 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 100 74 102 75 / 10 10 20 0 Odessa 101 74 102 75 / 10 10 20 0 Wink 105 75 105 76 / 30 20 30 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County-Presidio Valley.

NM...None.