textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend, but a gradual cooling trend brings temperatures closer to normal early next week.

- Drier conditions today are followed by increasing rain chances out west Friday. Rain chances become more widespread this weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Upper-level ridging over the southeastern CONUS begins to shift westward again through the Short Term period. This results in continued above normal temperatures today and Friday across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. However, troughing to the north and west of the area will gradually dampen the ridge through the end of the week and into the weekend. As a result, highs remain steadily in the mid 90s for most of the area (upper 90s in typical warm spots, and 80s in the higher terrain). Meanwhile lows Friday morning will be in the low-to-mid 70s for many locations, with mid-to-upper 60s in typical cool spots (especially in the mountains). For today, the best lift (and therefore best rain chances) are pushed just west of the area. However, by Friday a nearby shortwave, as well as surface troughing, will once again encourage increasing rain chances across western portions of the area. Chances range between 20-40% (up to 50%) mainly from the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau northward into southeast New Mexico. See the Long Term discussion for more details about cooler temperatures late this weekend and into next week, along with increased rain chances for a larger portion of the region.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A more active weather pattern is on the way beginning this weekend as models bring an upper trough close to our region. Abundant moisture coupled with several shortwaves moving through the flow aloft and upslope flow at the surface yield increasing shower/storm chances (20-60%) areawide this weekend into next week. Lower heights associated with the aforementioned trough and increasing cloud cover also allow for temperatures to gradually cool each day, potentially cooling most into the 80s to low 90s by early next week due to a cold front. However, it should be noted that confidence is currently low due to large spread in the temperature data among the ensembles. Temperatures next week will highly depend on the positioning of the trough/cold front and cloud cover/rainfall. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain southeasterly, gusting generally between 20-25 kts this afternoon. Gusts subside later this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 94 70 97 69 / 0 0 10 40 Dryden 95 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 94 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 66 88 66 / 0 0 20 40 Hobbs 91 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 87 60 89 60 / 0 0 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 94 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.