textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through late this week with near record heat possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Thursday and again late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The broad upper-level ridge will continue to extend across the southern U.S. through Wednesday night. Weak upslope flow and a slight enhancement of deep-layer moisture will aid in the development of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and parts of the Big Bend this afternoon into early this evening. A couple of cells that develop may become capable of producing heavy rainfall and brief strong downburst winds given precipitable water values up to 1.3 inches and DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG. Isolated shower and storm activity should diminish after sunset. Lows tonight will range from the 60s in the higher terrain to the lower to mid 70s over the remainder of the region. Yet another day of above normal temperatures can be expected under the persistent ridge on Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures will range in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees across the majority of the forecast area, except in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the mountains/higher terrain. Moisture and upslope flow will be sufficient for the development of isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and parts of the Big Bend again Wednesday. Additional convection developing along a weak boundary over east-central New Mexico and the Texas panhandle and South Plains may approach northern portions of Eddy/Lea Counties late Wednesday evening, so will keep POPs around 20% for those locations. Dry weather conditions will otherwise persist across the remainder of our forecast area through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast. The upper-level ridge retrogrades westward over the Desert Southwest late this week, but our forecast area will still remain under the eastern influence of this feature. Weak shortwave impulses embedded along the eastern periphery of the ridge may pivot over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon and evening, while a weak surface boundary also sags toward northern portions of our area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (10-40%) may subsequently develop over these locations late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, with the best chances favored from Lea County into the northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. Other isolated to scattered (20-50%) showers and storms will also develop over the higher terrain areas of the western CWA Thursday afternoon/evening. Upper-level ridging will tend to build back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday through the weekend, before shifting eastward toward the Gulf Coast states Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day. There may also be low chances for convection over southeast New Mexico and portions of the Permian Basin this weekend into early next week, though coverage will be dependent on the strength and placement of the ridge. The best chances should remain confined to our western CWA through the extended period. Temperatures remain above normal each day with highs mostly in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Friday and Saturday appear to be the hottest days of the extended period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions outside of a very low chance (less than 10%) of storms at terminals. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 15 to 25 mph at times this afternoon through early tonight, before decreasing again by Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 100 74 98 / 0 0 10 20 Carlsbad 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 10 20 Dryden 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 30 Hobbs 72 97 71 96 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 64 90 63 89 / 20 20 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 76 98 75 97 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 75 99 74 99 / 0 0 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.