textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall and a continued risk of flash flooding over the southwest mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New Mexico Plains through tomorrow morning.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

- Another storm system looks to bring the return of cooler temperatures and rain chances to our area.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show an upper trough centered near SoCal, while an upper ridge is centered near southeast Texas. Wedged between these features, moisture continues to surge toward our region within southwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwaves embedded within the flow leads to additional shower/ storm development over SE NM and Far West Texas this afternoon through tonight. Rain chances across the western half of our region range from 10-60% this afternoon. The best (40-60%) chances overlay SE NM and the higher terrain and surrounding areas in west Texas. Rain chances tonight become 10-30% over the eastern half of our region, while chances over the western half range from 40-70%, again favoring the westernmost counties. These areas have already seen plentiful rainfall and occasions of flash flooding. Ensemble data shows PWAT values of 1.25-1.6" over these areas this afternoon through tomorrow morning, indicating a continued potential for heavy rainfall. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect over SE NM, much of Far West Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains through early tomorrow morning. Rain chances gradually taper down Friday into Friday night, as the upper trough begins to lift into the central Plains. Low (10-30%) rain chances remain in the forecast for much of the area Friday into Friday night, as lift increases with the passing trough. Regarding temperatures, highs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon largely reach the 80s to low 90s (easternmost counties). Temperatures both nights generally cool to the 60s/70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Upper level flow becomes zonal Saturday as ridging builds back over our region. Low to medium (10-40%) rain chances become restricted to areas west of the Pecos River, mainly focused in/near the Davis Mountains Saturday afternoon. Temperatures rebound into the 90s across much of the region by Saturday afternoon, while 80s are forecast over SE NM and the higher terrain. Ridging continues to build Sunday, allowing for highs in the 90s to expand in coverage and further limiting rain chances near the Davis'. Another upper trough is progged to begin approaching our area Monday, bringing better rain chances and a renewed concern for flash flooding potential, especially in our western zones. The trough itself looks to pass over our region Tuesday into Wednesday. As it stands, much of the region will have the potential to see isolated to scattered showers/storms Monday afternoon, again mainly favoring our western counties. Rain chances increase areawide Monday night and remain in the forecast through Wednesday. Given saturated soils in parts of our area, flash flooding may be a hazard to monitor with this system during events of heavy rainfall. Otherwise, lowering heights with the trough, accompanied by an eventual cold front, send temperatures on a cooling trend. Highs by Wednesday afternoon are forecast to generally reach the 80s. Keep posted for any updates going forward as this next system takes shape!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except KCNM/KHOB, which could see a couple of hours of MVFR cigs Friday morning. Return flow will remain relatively light, w/best chances for convection overnight Southeast New Mexico terminals, and to a lesser extent, KINK/KPEQ.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 91 70 93 / 20 10 20 10 Carlsbad 64 83 64 88 / 70 40 30 0 Dryden 73 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 69 88 69 91 / 20 20 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 61 76 61 79 / 80 50 30 10 Hobbs 66 82 65 88 / 50 40 20 0 Marfa 59 82 59 84 / 40 30 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 70 88 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 Odessa 70 87 71 91 / 20 20 20 10 Wink 70 86 69 91 / 30 20 30 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Friday for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.