textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Friday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend, before warmer and drier weather returns early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Current water vapor imagery clearly shows the swirl of an upper level low centered over our CWA this morning. This low will be the main cause of instability leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning later this morning and continuing into Friday. High precipitable water values indicate any convection should be prolific rain producers and the threat for flash flooding continues. The main limiting factor in flooding will be the cellular nature of the showers and decent movement allowing a briefer time over any area. Still, even a half an hour of rainfall could produce over an inch of rainfall so remain alert for flooding, especially at low water crossings. The abundant rain and clouds again limits afternoon highs to the 80s both today and Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Rain chances diminish this weekend as the upper low moves into northern Mexico. Areas west of the Pecos River will have the best chance at receiving additional rain this weekend, especially in the higher elevations. Persons vacationing in the parks in the Big Bend should remain alert for the threat for flash flooding this weekend.

Rain chances decrease in the western zones early next and the entire CWA will be dry as a large high pressure system over the Texas Panhandle. Enjoy the cool temperatures the next few days because 500mb heights near 560dam indicate temperatures will be approaching or exceeding 100 degrees by the middle of next week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Ceilings are expected to lift above 3000 ft by 18Z. Scattered showers with a few storms have already developed across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico late this morning. This activity is expected to continue through the afternoon into early evening hours where -SHRA was implemented for most terminals. Brief MVFR VIS and CIGs may occur for any passing shower and storm. Highest confidence in TS and -TSRA will be across MAF, INK, FST, and PEQ mainly for this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 81 67 84 68 / 70 60 50 30 Carlsbad 90 68 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 89 69 90 70 / 50 60 60 30 Fort Stockton 86 67 88 68 / 50 20 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 83 64 85 65 / 20 10 40 30 Hobbs 85 65 87 65 / 20 20 20 40 Marfa 81 57 83 58 / 70 10 40 40 Midland Intl Airport 81 67 85 68 / 70 50 40 20 Odessa 82 67 85 68 / 70 40 40 20 Wink 86 68 90 68 / 30 20 30 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Borden-Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Ward.

NM...None.