textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande are expected to be between 105 and 110 degrees during this timeframe.

- Low (up to 20%) chance of isolated shower/storm development Thursday afternoon and evening over the Davis Mountains, adjacent areas in the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. A couple of storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail.

- Another chance (up to 20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon across portions of the Upper/Lower Trans-Pecos, southern Permian Basin, and Marfa Plateau.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level ridge has weekend and its axis shifted farther east. This is expected to allow for a couple of shortwave impulses to move overhead through southwest flow aloft. This combined with summer-like heating could foster the development of a few isolated showers and storms across much of the area this afternoon/early evening. There is a low chance of a couple of storms becoming strong to severe. Forecast soundings show large inverted-V profiles, with impressive DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg), suggesting a favorable environment for damaging winds. Despite steep low/mid-level lapse rates (8.5-9.2 C/km), smaller hail is expected due to very warm and dry air in the lower levels of the troposphere. These factors should promote melting hail, which is known to aid in storms producing gusty winds. Otherwise, surface troughing is forecast to bring breezy conditions across much of the Permian Basin, Lower Trans-Pecos, and southeast New Mexico today.

Another shortwave is expected to move over west Texas Friday afternoon, bringing additional chances (up to 20%) of showers and storms to the Upper/Lower Trans-Pecos, southern Permian Basin, and Marfa Plateau. A couple of storms could once again become strong to severe as steep lapse rates and large DCAPE values favor an environment capable of producing damaging winds and hail. Meanwhile, surface troughing is expected to set up another day of breezy winds on Friday, mainly across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Southwesterly downslope flow at the surface yields afternoon highs a degree or two warmer than today's. Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Quasi-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft is expected to persist over west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the weekend. Meanwhile, surface troughing helps keep southwesterly downsloping winds breezy, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of west Texas. As a result, hot and dry conditions continue to be the general theme this weekend through early next week. Highs in the upper 90s and low 100s will be commonplace through at least Monday, with Saturday appearing to be the hottest day. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande are still expected to top out between 105 and 110 degrees through early next week as well. Rain chances are generally very low through Monday, though some isolated activity cannot be ruled out in the evenings near the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans- Pecos thanks to embedded shortwaves and a retreating dryline. Overall though, most locations stay dry, and the aforementioned breezy winds lead to heightened fire weather concerns, mainly in southeast New Mexico and portions of the Permian Basin and Upper Trans-Pecos.

An upper-level trough moves into the Northern and Central Plains early next week. Though our area remains south of this feature, guidance continues to suggest it will help push a front our direction. That being said, models have been a bit all over the place regarding how far south the front makes it before washing out, and the timing of the front. Nevertheless, current guidance suggests we will cool a bit closer to normal by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Otherwise, some models also suggest better quality moisture will start to return to our area from the east around the same time. This, coupled with pulses in the flow aloft and the potential frontal passage, brings low shower and thunderstorm chances (generally 10-30%) back to the eastern half of the area Tuesday through the end of the period. Stay tuned for updates in future forecast packages!

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly winds of 12 knots or less are expected to continue this morning before becoming gusty (20-25 knots) by this afternoon. There is a low (10-15%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, but have left out of TAFs due to low confidence in coverage and timing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 71 98 69 / 20 20 10 0 Carlsbad 100 68 97 63 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 97 71 95 69 / 20 20 20 0 Fort Stockton 99 70 98 67 / 20 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 88 66 86 62 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 97 63 96 60 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 91 58 90 54 / 20 20 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 70 97 68 / 20 20 10 0 Odessa 96 69 96 68 / 20 20 10 0 Wink 98 67 97 64 / 20 20 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.