textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon, with the best chances (40-50%) in the higher terrain and lower chances (20-30%) across mainly the western two-thirds of the area. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop each day over western portions of the region Friday through at least Sunday, with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

An upper-level ridge is currently centered over southeastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough extends across western portions of the Permian Basin into the Trans-Pecos. A few showers and light thunderstorms developed this morning near the axis of this surface trough. Additional shower and storm development is expected later this afternoon along this feature, as well as in the higher terrain thanks to upslope flow and weak disturbances rounding the western periphery of the ridge. The highest chances (40-50%) will be in/near the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau, with lower chances (20-30%) across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin (mainly the western two-thirds), the Trans-Pecos, the Big Bend, and the Presidio Valley. Easternmost counties remain mostly dry today due to their relative proximity to the ridge, though a couple of isolated, short-lived showers or storms cannot be totally ruled out. Similar to previous days, storms that develop could produce strong to severe winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. Temperatures largely top out in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees (low 90s in the higher terrain). Lows tonight end up in the low-to-mid 70s for most locations.

Surface troughing hangs around Friday, but the ridge starts to shift slightly westward (though the highest heights remain well to our east). As a result, the best moisture and lift (and therefore PoPs) are displaced a bit farther to the west as well. The highest rain chances (40-50%) will once again be in the Davis Mountains, with 10- 30% chances confined mainly to southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans- Pecos, the Stockton Plateau, the Big Bend, and the Presidio Valley (with perhaps a storm or two sneaking into the far western Permian Basin). Highs end up in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations again, though 100 degree temperatures become a bit more confined to the river valleys.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Models have been consistent with showing the broad upper-level ridge retrograding to the west over much of the southern CONUS this weekend and becoming dominant through the middle part of next week. This feature will continue to yield above normal temperatures each day, with afternoon highs in the upper 90s for most. Though spots along the Pecos River and Rio Grande Valleys can expect to see maximum temperatures above the century mark. Cooler tempertures in the upper 80s to low 90s can be found in the mountains. Moist southeasterly upslope flow and maybe some minor disturbances in the flow aloft could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western higher terrain each afternoon through at least Sunday. After Sunday, shower and storm chances become less likely, but not completely out of question. Otherwise, the remainder of the area remains dry through the extended as sinking motion under the ridge inhibits convective initiation. Low tempertures continue to range in the 60s in the mountains and 70s elsewhere. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southerly winds at terminals throughout the TAF period. A low (20% to 30%) chance of showers/storms develops at terminals across the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains during the early part of the afternoon, spreading to the Stockton Plateau. However, did not include PROB30s due to uncertainty in coverage and exact timing. Main impacts at terminals from any storms will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, and strong, variable winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 101 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 73 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 100 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 73 96 72 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 68 90 68 / 20 20 30 10 Hobbs 98 71 97 70 / 20 20 0 0 Marfa 90 63 90 62 / 50 10 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 75 99 73 / 10 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.