textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- A slow-moving upper-level system brings periods of hazardous winds to the Guadalupes/Delawares, the Davis Mountains, and respective adjacent plains/foothills today through at least Wednesday.

- Areas where strongest winds are expected will also be at risk of near-critical to critical fire danger today through at least Wednesday, as well as blowing dust.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through the week, followed by a cooling trend into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the first of a series of upper level troughs moving through New Mexico, bringing earth, wind, and fire to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today. Indeed, Carlsbad Caverns was the first to hit high wind and an RFTI of 6 at 1430Z. This will result in critical fire wx conditions both today and Wednesday. See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details. Despite variable high cloudiness to inhibit mixing somewhat, a windy day is still on tap for Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas, with increased westerlies adding a downslope warming component to afternoon highs, which should top out an average of over 15 F above climatology. Unfortunately, this looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as a series of fronts are expected over the next week, beginning with a Pac front late this afternoon.

Tonight, winds will decouple after sunset, but momentum will keep them going for a few more hours into the evening, as a 35-45 kt 850 mb jet persists. This will combine with continued high cloud to keep overnight minimums just over 10 F above normal, although ~ 5 F cooler than this morning due to the Pac front.

Wednesday, a secondary trough will move through the Rockies, for a day similar to today, only a little cooler and not as windy, as the trough looks to track further north than today's trough. As a result, we've issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupes, Delawares, and immediate downstream plains. A few advisories will be needed, as well, but subsequent shifts can upgrade/issue those when the current ones expire, so as to minimize sowing confusion. Considering already dry soils in place, drying out further this afternoon, BLDU products will be needed, as well. Highs will drop ~ 5-6 F from today's.

Wednesday night, the 700 mb height gradient over the Guadalupes does not let up, remaining around 90m/200nm. This is in agreement w/the NAM mountain wave signature, which stays strong all night. This mixing will negate radiational cooling due to clearing skies, yielding overnight lows very similar to tonight's..

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The series of shortwaves moving across the Southern and Central Plains continues Thursday. Surface low pressure once again develops in the lee of the Rockies Thursday morning. This, coupled with our proximity to a jet of stronger winds aloft, yields another day of gusty and dry conditions. Highs top out in the upper 60s and low-to- mid 70s for much of the region, with 80s in near and along the Rio Grande. Friday looks very similar to Thursday as yet another shortwave passes north of the area. The main difference Friday will be the passage of a cold front that evening and early Saturday morning. In any case, for both Thursday and Friday we will continue to evaluate the need for additional wind products (particularly for the same locations that required wind products in the Short Term period). Enhanced fire weather conditions will also continue to be a concern for both of these days, particularly in the southeast New Mexico plains, the Davis Mountains, the Upper Trans-Pecos, and Gaines County. See the fire weather discussion below for more details.

The aforementioned cold front Friday night yields near-normal temperatures Saturday afternoon (low-to-mid 60s for most locations, 70s in far southern locations near the Rio Grande). In addition to the cooler temperatures, it also appears that winds gradually decline Saturday through at least the remainder of the weekend as post-frontal high pressure builds in. Temperatures look to remain near-normal through at least Monday as well. Broad ridging attempts to build overhead this weekend into early next week, but long range guidance indicates additional shortwaves may make their way across the plains again later in the week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Gusty westerly surface winds are expected this afternoon as an upper-level storm system moves through the area. This may result in MVFR visbys KHOB/KCNM/KINK due to BLDU late this afternoon. A few high clouds are anticipated. Winds veer slightly to southwest Wednesday, increasing and becoming gusty once again near the end of the forecast period, only not quite as strong as this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions persist today and are expected to develop again Wednesday for the southeast New Mexico plains, the Upper Trans-Pecos, the Davis Mountains, and Gaines County. Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds have been observed through much of this morning, especially in southeast New Mexico and in/around the higher terrain of west Texas. Min RHs in these locations have also fallen to near-critical or critical levels (near or below 15%). As a result, the Red Flag Warning issued previously remains in effect, and no significant changes have been made to it. Wednesday's Fire Weather Watch also remains unchanged, though it will likely (> 90% confidence) need to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for tonight's forecast package. Winds decrease a bit Thursday and Friday relative to today and tomorrow. Nevertheless, elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue Thursday and Friday. As a result of this, locations with particularly dry fuels (the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans-Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Gaines County) may require additional fire weather products on these days. A front moves through the area Friday evening and overnight, which will drop temperatures closer to normal Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 45 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 43 72 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 52 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 51 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 40 62 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 38 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 37 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 47 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 47 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 44 76 44 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews- Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines- Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for Eastern Culberson.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea- Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Eddy County Plains.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Southern Lea.