textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 450 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Gusty winds persist today and tomorrow. Periods of hazardous winds are still expected in the Guadalupe Mountains through Friday evening.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue today. Near-critical to critical conditions are forecast for Friday.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday before a cold front brings near to below normal temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Current Mesoanalysis depicts the shortwave (and associated surface low) that brought gusty winds to the area yesterday moving out of the plains and into the Midwest. Meanwhile, amplified flow aloft persists over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Given the eastward displacement of the surface low and the shortwave, overall winds today will be a bit weaker than yesterday and Tuesday. As a result, the only wind product currently in effect is the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains, which runs through this evening. That being said, though winds today will be just below Wind Advisory criteria elsewhere, they will still be quite gusty across much of the area. Highs top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s across much of the region today (80s along the Rio Grande). Winds taper down tonight, and lows drop into the 40s for most locations (mid-to-upper 30s in the higher terrain).

Another shortwave approaches the plains Friday, leading to the development of another surface low east of the Rockies. Since this shortwave and surface low will be closer to our area, tomorrow's winds look stronger overall than today's. The High Wind Watch issued last night remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains tomorrow morning through the evening. Additional wind products may be deemed necessary by tonight's forecast update. Gusty winds and dry conditions will also lead to another day of enhanced fire weather concerns (see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details). Tomorrow's highs end up similar to today's. Nevertheless, Friday's surface low manages to send a stronger front south into our area by Saturday morning. This sets up a period of near-normal temperatures this weekend. More on that in the Long Term discussion.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The Long Term period begins with cooler temperatures behind the cold front passage, with afternoon highs in the 60s for most on Saturday (70s near the Rio Grande). Overnight lows Saturday night bottom out into the 30s areawide (except 40s near the Rio Grande and 20s across portions of Lea County, New Mexico and Gaines County, Texas). Temperatures drop even further on Sunday as cloud cover limits daytime heating, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most. A warming trend looks to be in store next week as cluster analysis shows the upper-level ridge moving over our region. There continues to be hints of the return of breezy winds by Tuesday and Wednesday next week due to surface lee troughing. However, these details will need to be ironed out in future forecast packages. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 450 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly surface winds should decouple after sundown, but should resume by late morning Friday. High clouds will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue the rest of this afternoon/early evening over southeast New Mexico, portions of the Trans-Pecos, and the Davis Mountains. Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds are expected to continue through this evening in these locations. Coinciding RH values will bottom out between 15-25% by the afternoon. Given these parameters, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will continue over the aforementioned areas the rest of this afternoon.

Winds Friday look a bit stronger than today's, and Min RHs are forecast to be lower (in the 9-15% range). Because of this, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and is in effect for Friday afternoon and evening, particularly for the same locations that received Red Flag Warnings during previous days. Friday night, a cold front starts to make its way through the area. This yields near/slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend, which will (along with relatively lighter winds) help reduce fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 42 75 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 42 68 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 49 84 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 48 79 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 42 59 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 41 68 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 34 70 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 45 74 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 46 73 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 42 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.