textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across west Texas and southeast New Mexico today. Chances for most locations range from 30-60%. Rain chances decrease sharply by early Tuesday morning.

- Drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before additional chances of rain return by late this week.

- Near-to-below normal temperatures are expected today. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the main trough ejecting into the upper Midwest, while the tail end of it is swinging through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This corresponds well w/area radars showing a MCV moving though the central/northern Permian Basin. The HRRR and other CAMs are in somewhat of a disagreement as to whether this is the last round for this event, but visible satellite imagery shows a band of high cloud exiting the area to S-N, and if this can clear the area soon enough, the boundary layer may have a chance to destabilize later this afternoon, w/more redevelopment as CAMs are suggesting. The KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.34", right at the climatological 100th percentile, so the potential for a good rain somewhere before the day is out remains. Today still looks to be the coolest day for the next week.

Tonight, convection is forecast to gradually diminish SW-NE, w/patchy fog developing in places. The LLJ is forecast to be less than 35 kts, but enough cloud cover should remain in place to negate the resultant lack of mixing, and overnight minimums should remain ~ 10-15 F above climatology.

Tuesday, aside from isolated afternoon convection in the mountains, things begin to dry out under southwest flow aloft and clearing skies. Thicknesses will increase, allowing temperatures to increase to more respectable levels, around 5-6 F warmer than today and ~ 2-4 F above normal.

Tuesday night looks dry also, aside from isolated showers on the lower Trans Pecos. Overnight lows should be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so warmer.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Wednesday is expected to be warmer and drier with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of the region. The pattern shifts on Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves into west and central Texas from Mexico. Medium range guidance continues to show the highest rain chances (40-70% with some areas over 80%) stretching from Big Bend and into the eastern Permian Basin during the day on Thursday and into Thursday evening. Similar to the last few widespread rain events in the region, some uncertainty remains with just how much rain many areas will receive. Generally, areas west of a line from Midland/Odessa to Fort Stockton will see less rain. Temperatures move near or just below normal in the low to mid 70s on Friday thanks to the clouds and rain in addition to easterly flow that will keep conditions slightly cooler.

As the aforementioned low moves out of the area, another weak disturbance moves in from the west, but models continue to be bearish on rain chances with this system on Halloween and on November 1st. Beyond this coming weekend, rain chances dip further and temperatures stay just above normal in the mid to upper 70s.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Area radars show a MCV moving north through the Permian Basin, w/CAMs differing on whether there will be additional redevelopment this afternoon. For now, we've got a mention of convection all terminals this afternoon. Forecast soundings redevelop stratus after sundown, then scatter skies out by the end of the forecast period as winds veer to south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 78 61 81 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 55 77 55 82 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 58 78 60 80 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 81 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 52 68 54 72 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 54 75 56 79 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 50 74 51 77 / 10 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 77 60 80 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 58 77 61 80 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 56 79 59 83 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.