textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western portions of the region this afternoon/evening and tomorrow. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Persistence rules. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS, deflecting warmer conditions away from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and as reflected by the myriad heat advisories/warnings in effect over there. As there's been little change over the past 24 hours, highs this afternoon should be similar to yesterday's, if not a degree cooler, as thicknesses have decreased. Upslope flow will work in tandem w/instability and abundant moisture out west to produce afternoon convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos. An inverted trough will move west into the Big Bend Area, with little effect except to continue bringing down thicknesses/temperatures.

Tonight, unfortunately, unseasonably warm minimums continue, mainly due to a LLJ of around 35 kts, and a few mid/high clouds. Lows should average ~ 5-7 F above normal, a degree or two cooler than this morning due to less cloud cover. Convection should diminish during the evening after peak heating concludes.

Sunday looks to be the coolest day this forecast, w/the inverted trough still in the Big Bend Area. High should average only around 5 F above normal. Upslope flow will once again result in an afternoon of convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos, only maybe a bit farther west than this afternoon.

Sunday night looks like a repeat of tonight, only dry.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Above normal temperatures continue next week as the upper-level ridge remains dominant over the region. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s can be expected each day this work week, with the hottest spots ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande. Upslope flow and diurnal heating yields a low (~10%) chance of showers and storms over the Davis Mountains on Monday, though the rest of the forecast area remains dry. Sinking motion under the ridge keeps the remainder of the week dry areawide. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

There is less SHRA/TS than yesterday and should not affect any of the TAF sites this evening, though local flying operations could be affected at HOB/CNM. Otherwise VFR conditions is expected at all sites with light to modest southeast winds.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 98 72 99 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 74 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 89 67 90 / 10 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 97 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 62 88 61 90 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.