textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - Warm and dry conditions expected through the middle part of the week before a cold front brings cooler temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday.

- High winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains today with windy conditions spreading into the adjacent plains of southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas. Breezy conditions continue into Wednesday. Strong gap winds may briefly impact the Guadalupe Mountains Wednesday night behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Generally zonal flow aloft is in place across west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning with satellite imagery continuing to show plentiful high level cloud cover spreading over our region. Temperatures are warmer early this morning with readings still in the 60s and 70s as of 3 AM CDT. The dryline has retreated back to the west over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where dewpoints have risen back into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees, but no precipitation is to be found given a lack of lift over region.

The upper-level flow pattern will transition more southwesterly today as an upper level low continues to pivot toward southern California/Nevada and into Arizona. Surface low pressure near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles early this morning will advance toward the Red River Valley today as a rather strong cold front pushes into the Texas panhandle and through much of Oklahoma. An elongated surface trough axis will extend across west Texas into portions of New Mexico today ahead of this cold front and low level thermal ridging along this feature will allow for another warm afternoon across our forecast area with highs reaching into the 80s to low 90s for most, except for 70s in the higher terrain and readings in the mid 90s to around 104 along the Rio Grande. The dryline will get pushed east of our region by late this morning, so we expect a dry afternoon with increased westerly winds developing over much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A mid to upper level jet max still looks to spread over the forecast area this afternoon which will result in enhanced wind speeds over the higher terrain areas, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains from late this morning through early this evening where westerly winds up to 40-50 mph and gusts to 65-70 mph appear likely. Strong westerly winds on the order of 25-35 mph with gusts around 50 mph also look to spread over eastern Culberson County TX and over the southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains areas still looks good and no changes have been made. Breezy westerly winds up to 20-30 mph with gusts up to around 45 mph may spread into portions of the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon. Winds should gradually diminish into the evening. We expect another mild night tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday. The cold front to our north essentially looks to move very little and remain stalled over the Texas panhandle through Wednesday afternoon while an also elongated surface trough remains oriented over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Another warm and breezy day is anticipated, though wind speeds overall should be lower than what we will have today. Wind speeds may near high wind thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains again briefly on Wednesday afternoon, but presently look to be more borderline in nature.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The cold front will finally get a push south through our forecast area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Breezy northeasterly winds will develop behind the passage of the front and there could be a small window where high gap winds impact the Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns NP overnight Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend colder behind the front with lows in the 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 with some of the higher terrain areas falling into the upper 30s. Highs on Thursday will only reach into the 70s for most of the area, except for 60s in the mountains and 80s along the Rio Grande. The upper-level low to our west will slowly move across northern Mexico Thursday into Thursday night before advancing across southern portions of our area by Friday. Moisture looks to be very limited over our area as this system passes across the region, so rain chances only look to be 10 percent or less Thursday night and Friday at this time. We will be back to dry northwesterly flow aloft with embedded ridging overhead this weekend into early next week. A dry forecast continues through Monday. Highs reach back into the 90s this weekend while overnight lows remain mild in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Gusts up to 30-35kts expected at CNM/HOB through this afternoon. Winds decrease overnight and return during the day on Wednesday. VFR conditions at all terminals. Precluded BLDU from mention as confidence is low that terminals will be impacted by blowing dust.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 85 48 72 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 58 81 46 74 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 66 92 60 77 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 64 86 52 74 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 53 71 45 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 56 80 43 72 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 52 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 64 84 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 64 84 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 61 84 49 73 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.