textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening, mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A few showers have developed over southeast New Mexico and are moving to south-southeast this morning. Until after sunrise, rain amounts will be generally light, though a stronger shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. During the day today, highest rain chances (40-60%) will be west of Midland/Odessa. Additional rainfall for very isolated spots may reach between a half inch to an inch with much less falling for most other locations. Given the last few days, there does still remain a threat for flash flooding in areas that have received significant rain. Cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures below normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. Convection gradually decreases into tonight and temperatures fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday looks to be a repeat of today with the main difference being the highest rain chances shifting over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The mid level low that brought heavy rainfall to parts of Texas this week continues a westward track through early next week, departing from our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances remain in the forecast over parts of the area until then. Sunday evening, rain chances are progged to range from 10-40%, with the highest odds overlaying the western third of the region. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible near and west of the Pecos River Monday, with the best chances favoring the higher terrain. Rain chances taper down further over our western counties Tuesday afternoon before drier conditions return areawide Wednesday onward. Models suggest PWAT values between 1-2" through Tuesday evening, indicating a potential for occasionally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially where soils are already saturated.

As the mid level low departs, upper level ridging gradually takes its place, promoting a warming trend. With the exception of 80s in/near the higher terrain Monday afternoon, highs at most locations are forecast to reach the low 90s, then warm a few degrees further Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles indicate the upper ridge eventually becoming centered over the southern Plains by next weekend. Subsequently, triple digit heat returns along the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys Wednesday afternoon, then envelopes more portions of the region each afternoon onward. Overnight lows in the 60s/70s Sunday night slowly give way to lows generally in the 70s by the end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Southerly to southeasterly winds continue through the morning. Rain chances return during the day with the best chances during the afternoon. Gusts increase after sunrise. VFR conditions at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 70 91 70 / 20 20 30 10 Carlsbad 95 69 94 70 / 40 20 50 40 Dryden 94 72 94 73 / 20 10 40 10 Fort Stockton 93 70 91 70 / 50 10 70 20 Guadalupe Pass 87 65 85 66 / 50 30 60 50 Hobbs 92 66 91 67 / 50 40 40 30 Marfa 87 60 85 60 / 60 30 70 30 Midland Intl Airport 90 70 90 71 / 40 30 50 10 Odessa 90 70 90 70 / 40 20 50 10 Wink 94 70 93 70 / 40 20 40 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.