textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Highs remain above normal today, but finally trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front that moves into the area today and Tuesday. A few storms will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- A surge of moisture lifting across western portions of the region will bring the potential for numerous showers and thunderstorms over southeast New Mexico and areas west of the Pecos River Tuesday night into Thursday. We will be monitoring these locations for an increased potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Weak westerly to northwesterly flow aloft is in place over west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning. Weak impulses embedded within this flow pattern have resulted in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms from central portions of Lea County NM to the Upper Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin as of 145 AM CDT. This activity has been very sparse in nature, but we will keep isolated (10-20%) mention of showers/storms in the forecast through the remainder of the overnight hours over these locations. Surface analysis and regional radar imagery also show a cold front pushing through the Texas panhandle early this morning, with scattered thunderstorms developing between Lubbock and Childress along the vicinity of this boundary. Short range and high resolution model solutions are in good agreement with bringing the front southward into northern portions of our forecast area by early this evening before pushing further south through the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans Pecos region later this evening. Additional shortwave impulses embedded within the mid- level flow will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon and evening and we will keep POPs elevated between 30-50% across the southeast New Mexico plains, the Permian Basin, and portions of the Trans Pecos region. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20%) may develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and portions of the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend. Precipitable water values will locally increase to > 1.5 inches along the vicinity of the boundary, so some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may once again linger into the overnight hours. Highs today are forecast to remain very warm with readings in the lower to mid 90s over most of the region, except mid to upper 80s in the higher terrain and around or slightly above 100 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight trend slightly cooler behind the front with readings mostly in the 60s. A few places may fall into the mid to upper 50s over the higher terrain, while areas along the Rio Grande range in the lower to mid 70s.

The mid to upper-level flow pattern will transition more southerly to southwesterly across southeast New Mexico and west Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night as the ridge becomes positioned from eastern portions of Texas into the central High Plains and as a trough lifts across the Great Basin. A plume of deep moisture will be transported northward from Mexico into far west Texas and much of the state of New Mexico between these features through Tuesday night. The surface front will meanwhile remain oriented from the Guadalupe Mountains/southeast New Mexico plains and through the Trans Pecos region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across the southeast New Mexico plains, the Permian Basin, and into the Upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe/Davis Mountains region Tuesday afternoon along the boundary. Convective coverage may continue to increase over southeast New Mexico and the adjacent Guadalupe Mountains and the western and northwestern Permian Basin Tuesday evening into late Tuesday night as deep layer moisture increases in the S/SW flow aloft. While the signal for the heaviest rainfall with this surge of moisture currently looks to be aligned just west and northwest of our CWA, we will have increasing concerns of potential flash flooding over our southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains zones in particular going into Tuesday night as deeper moisture spreads into these areas with potential for localized rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" in a short period of time with the associated rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While confidence was not quite high enough to issue a Flood Watch over these zones with this forecast package, later shifts will continue to assess the need for one over these locations from Tuesday night into at least Wednesday evening (see extended discussion below). HIgh temperatures on Tuesday otherwise trend cooler with readings forecast to trend back down into the 80s over much of our region, except in the 90s along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The southerly mid-level flow pattern will persist across much of our forecast area on Wednesday between ridging to our east and persistent troughing over and just west of the Baja region. Deep moisture continue spread northward over our western zones within this flow pattern will continue to favor a high chance (60-80%) of showers and thunderstorms and an associated heavy rainfall/flash flood potential over southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, and the adjacent Van Horn Corridor. Other isolated to scattered showers/storms (20-50%) will develop across much of the rest of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Medium range models keep a moist southwesterly flow pattern aloft in place across much of our CWA Thursday and Friday, so a good chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue, especially over southeast New Mexico and areas along and west of the Pecos River through the latter part of the week. Deep moisture will support a continued heavy rainfall and an associated potential for flash flooding over our western zones Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals (though still slightly above what is expected for late September) mid to late week. The flow pattern transitions more zonal by this weekend, with weak ridging building overhead by Sunday. This should allow for lower chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, while temperatures also trend warmer back into the upper 80s to lower 90s over much of the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the period. A cold front will push into southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will shift easterly to northeasterly behind this feature. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary mainly after 20Z. We included PROB30 mention for TSRA with gusty winds at KMAF and KINK late this afternoon into this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 94 67 86 66 / 40 50 50 40 Carlsbad 94 67 86 63 / 0 30 50 80 Dryden 95 71 91 71 / 0 20 20 20 Fort Stockton 94 68 88 67 / 10 30 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 86 62 78 59 / 0 20 50 70 Hobbs 90 63 82 61 / 20 30 50 70 Marfa 87 60 83 59 / 20 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 93 67 86 67 / 30 40 50 40 Odessa 93 69 86 68 / 30 40 50 50 Wink 95 69 88 67 / 10 20 40 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.