textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected into next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

We start seeing the effects of cooler and moister air in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico today. The arrival of gulf air will be seen this afternoon as dewpoints could be as much as 10 degrees higher than yesterday. Thus temps today begin their downward slide holding to near normal with highs in the 90s in most locations.

The continued southeasterly flow brings temps down further Sunday with widespread highs in the lower 90s and 80s in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. An easterly wave moves up along the Rio Grande increasing rain chances beginning on Sunday. The best rain chances will be in the Big Bend but everywhere should see at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values (PWATs) increase to near record values Sunday into next week. PWAT is a measure of the amount of water in the atmosphere so high PWATs indicate a potential for heavy rainfall and flooding. It is NOT a measure for the potential for rainfall so high PWATs do not necessarily mean widespread rain, it just means that if there is rain then it could be heavy. We will monitor for the potential of flood watch issuance.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The long term forecast is an extension of what begins in the short term. An upper level high pressure system builds over the northern Great Plains, far enough north that a deep easterly flow gets established over Texas and New Mexico. Gulf moisture remains over the area and any heating or easterly disturbances will be enough to spark mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. There are no recognizable features seen in the models at this time that would focus convection in any particular area. PoPs are relatively high next week, perhaps an artifact of the ensembles having difficulty with scattered convection so I would hesitate about getting too excited about an extended period of strong rain chances. What it more likely indicates is that there is good chance that many locations will see some rainfall at some point next week, and locations getting several days of rainfall will be more isolated. Still, the rain in the forecast is a very welcome sign since we have been on a bit of a dry streak the past month and are again falling well below normal on rainfall amounts on the year.

The increased rain and clouds next week provides many locations with highs only reaching the 80s which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The summer began cool before heating up the past several weeks. It is good to see cooler temperatures returning and an indication that this summer will not be as bad as many we have had recently. We are due for a break.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period. MVFR CIGs developing south of MAF and could affect the terminal in the next couple of hours. Will amend if needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 95 73 94 71 / 0 0 10 50 Carlsbad 98 72 94 69 / 0 10 10 50 Dryden 96 73 93 72 / 0 20 30 30 Fort Stockton 95 71 91 70 / 0 10 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 67 85 65 / 0 0 10 30 Hobbs 95 69 92 67 / 0 10 10 50 Marfa 93 62 85 59 / 10 10 70 40 Midland Intl Airport 94 73 92 71 / 0 10 20 40 Odessa 94 73 91 71 / 0 10 20 40 Wink 96 73 93 71 / 0 0 10 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.