textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Temperatures remain below normal through Monday. Low chances of rain (generally 10-30%, up to 40%) are maintained mainly along/south of the Pecos River through Monday as well.

- A warming trend continues through at least Wednesday, after which temperatures will decrease slightly going into next weekend. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again Wednesday through Friday as an upper-level disturbance develops over the region.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Upper-level ridging persists over the Four Corners, slowly pushing a remnant upper-level low currently overhead eastward and increasing thicknesses across the region. This allows temperatures to gradually increase through the Short Term period. However, this warming is tempered by persistent northeasterly to easterly winds at the surface. Highs today will be in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s across the area. Tomorrow, most locations top out a degree or two warmer. Nevertheless, these highs remain about 2-5 degrees or so below normal for early October. Lows will be in the upper 50s and low 60s tonight and Monday night. Low chances of light rain (10-30%) develop again for mainly the Trans-Pecos and in/around the higher terrain this evening (10-15% chances of showers for parts of southeast New Mexico). Rain chances are maintained Monday morning and afternoon. The best chances will once again be in the Trans- Pecos and around the higher terrain (20-40%), but isolated showers may also develop for portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin (10-20%). By Monday night, winds become southeasterly, allowing temperatures to continue slowly warming through midweek. More on that in the Long Term discussion below.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Afternoon highs look to generally warm into the 80s each afternoon of the Long Term period, with 70s forecast for areas in and near the higher terrain. Overnight lows fall to the mid 50s to lower 60s each night. Tuesday, mid level ridging remains our primary weather maker. Low (10-30%) rain chances will be confined to the Davis Mountains Tuesday afternoon. A change from previous forecast packages, current models have an upper level disturbance coming out of northwestern Mexico Wednesday, headed east. Rain chances arrive first to our southwesternmost counties Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, 10-50% chances of isolated to scattered showers/storms spread east to encompass most areas west of the Pecos River. This activity may persist over western portions of our area through Wednesday evening. Long range models have this shortwave becoming an upper low somewhere near our area Thursday. Meanwhile, a surface trough is progged to extend over our region, aiding to increase rain chances almost areawide Thursday and Friday. There currently remains some uncertainty regarding exactly where this low will develop, its motion, and how much moisture will be available once it materializes. We will have to see how this system takes shape going forward. At the very least, lower heights associated with the low will shave a few degrees off of temperatures during the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions expected for most though MVFR CIGs (BKN020-030) expected at MAF/FST before 12Z lasting to around 18Z.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 81 65 83 61 / 10 20 0 0 Carlsbad 79 61 79 59 / 20 20 30 0 Dryden 79 67 81 64 / 20 20 30 0 Fort Stockton 79 63 79 62 / 10 10 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 57 70 57 / 10 20 20 0 Hobbs 77 59 77 58 / 20 20 20 0 Marfa 71 56 74 55 / 10 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 79 64 81 61 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 79 64 80 62 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 83 64 83 62 / 10 10 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.