textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 258 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 - Warm and breezy conditions continue today. A cold front passes through the region tonight bringing cooler temperatures through Thursday. A brief period of strong winds may be possible through gap areas in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight.

- A passing system will bring a low (10-30 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Davis Mountains and Trans Pecos on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A thick canopy of high level cloud cover continues to stream over the forecast area early this morning within southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. A cold front has moved into the northeastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains early this morning where winds have shifted northeasterly. The upper-level trough will continue to deepen to our west, with a closed low likely to form over the Baja vicinity late this afternoon through tonight. The west-southwest flow pattern aloft will continue over our region ahead of this system through tonight. The cold front will stall or perhaps retreat slightly to the northeast this afternoon, while a trough of low pressure sets up from east-central New Mexico into the Big Bend region. Winds will pick up out of the west over much of the forecast area along this feature again this afternoon with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to upper 80s over most places with a few readings in the 90s along the Rio Grande. Brief strong gusts to 50-55+ mph may occur in the Guadalupe Mountains, but overall expect speeds to remain too marginal for a High Wind Warning product there today. A shortwave trough clipping over the central Plains will force the cold front stalled over the eastern South Plains and northeastern Basin today to get pushed southward through much of our forecast area late tonight into early Thursday morning. Winds will become breezy from the north to northeast over the region, with brief strong winds possible through gap areas in the mountains overnight. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front tonight with lows in the 40s to lower 50s over higher terrain areas and along and north of I-20. Lows over the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos should generally range in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Winds gradually become easterly to southeasterly over our region by Thursday afternoon as the surface high builds across northern and eastern portions of the state of Texas. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 70s over most of the region, except in the 80s to near 90 over locations near the Rio Grande. A shortwave trough translating from the Big Bend to the Lower Trans Pecos could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the far southeastern fringes of our area Thursday morning (down around Terrell County). Dry weather is otherwise expected over the majority of the CWA.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The upper-level low will cross northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday morning before gradually lifting over west Texas in the Friday afternoon through Friday night time frame. There may be enough moisture/instability to support the development of a few showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Van Horn Corridor, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Trans Pecos region as the system moves over the region Friday afternoon into Friday evening. We will have low POPs between 10-30 percent indicated over these locations mainly during the afternoon hours with this forecast. A northwesterly flow pattern aloft returns this weekend behind this passing system with an associated cold front also pushing through our area on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over eastern portions of the area along the front Sunday afternoon or evening. An upper-level ridge looks to build over our region early next week. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions look to be prevalent. Highs by next Tuesday may reach well into the 90s under the building ridge aloft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. A cold front has edged into the northeastern Permian Basin late this evening and this boundary may make it as far southwest as KMAF by early Wednesday morning where winds could briefly turn northeasterly. The boundary may stall over the vicinity of the northeastern Basin Wednesday, while winds turn westerly and increase to around 15-20 knots with a few gusts over 25 knots over most area terminals late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. The cold front may approach KHOB and KMAF by late Wednesday evening, around or shortly before 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 86 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 81 49 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 92 64 76 60 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 88 55 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 48 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 80 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 48 76 47 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 85 51 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 84 52 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 84 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.