textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler beginning Tuesday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms will develop over western portions of the area this afternoon and evening. We will monitor for localized flash flooding and gusty winds with the strongest storms.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually increases Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers and storms developing over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains this afternoon and evening and staying over southeast New Mexico. A few storms may be strong with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning. Localized flash flooding will be monitored for with this activity. Evening storms decay tonight after loss of daytime heating and dry conditions hang on through Saturday morning. The ridge to the east that has kept the region somewhat dry slides further east and allows moisture to pool in from the west and southwest. With more favorable upper level conditions and ample moisture, scattered showers and storms look to develop across much of the CWA with the best chances (40-60%) for the Davis Mountains, surrounding foothills and down towards Big Bend. Isolated coverage of storms expected across the Permian Basin. Highs top out in the mid to upper 90s similar to today with lows for tonight and tomorrow night settling in the 60s and 70s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Sunday, the upper level ridge mentioned in the short term forecast continues to push eastward and this shift will bring more moisture to the eastern half of the CWA with better rain chances for the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Monday sees drier conditions for a majority of the region, but a cold front pushes in from the north. Guidance continues to show the front just making to the region during the day on Monday, but stalling out before pushing further south than the Permian Basin. Monday night sees the front push through and temperatures on Tuesday fall to near normal in the 80s for most. "Cooler" temperatures last through the end of the week with Big Bend remaining the hottest with temperatures in the 90s.

Rain chances increase both with the front and as another batch of moisture is pulled in from the west and southwest. Guidance continues to show the focus of moisture over New Mexico with a gradual decrease in favorable conditions from west to east across the CWA. Medium to long range guidance hold 40-60% rain chances across SE NM through the end of the week. Flooding will quickly become a concern with potential rounds of convection expected each day, should the forecast continue to hold.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR continues for all sites. TEMPO added to CNM as showers and storms develop over nearby high terrain this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, southeast winds between 10-15kts persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 40 20 Carlsbad 70 96 67 96 / 30 50 40 10 Dryden 74 98 73 96 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Stockton 71 97 71 94 / 0 30 50 30 Guadalupe Pass 66 86 65 86 / 30 50 50 10 Hobbs 69 94 67 94 / 10 40 50 10 Marfa 61 90 61 88 / 10 50 70 50 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 50 20 Odessa 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 50 10 Wink 73 97 72 97 / 0 30 60 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.