textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Patchy dense fog may occur across portions of the Permian Basin and higher terrain tonight into Monday morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday with dreary conditions, before a warming trend occurs by mid week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 220 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Satellite imagery and weather observations show a cold front moving through the Permian Basin. The front is expected to move farther south throughout the afternoon and evening into portions of the higher terrain and Big Bend. As a result, breezy northerly to northeasterly winds are in store. An upper low is situated over portions of southwest Oklahoma and north Texas will translate eastward throughout today. A plume of moisture and ascent on the backside of the low may provide a few showers across the northeastern Permian Basin through the evening hours. Surface high pressure from the Central Plains ushers in colder air into the region overnight. Lows are forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most locations. Light winds and abundant low-level moisture induces the potential for patchy dense fog development across portions of the northern and eastern Permian Basin, and the higher terrain (Guadalupe and Davis Mountains). Like earlier this morning, visibilities may be reduced to a 1/4 mile or below in some spots. Be sure to drive with extra caution for the Monday morning commute! Coverage of fog itself could be limited due to low clouds. In this scenario, a misty morning is expected with visibilities above a mile.

Monday, the low clouds and mist look to stick around creating a very cool and dreary day across much of the region. Locations across the northern Permian Basin and far southeast New Mexico may struggle to get into the upper 40s, thanks to persistent overcast skies and dreary conditions. A weak upper-level ridge moves overhead keeping much of the region from getting any appreciable precipitation other than light drizzle. Monday night, the aforementioned surface high moves east of the region. As a result, winds generally shift southeasterly and will keep low clouds and dreary conditions across much of the region. Lows are expected to be similar as afternoon temperatures (slightly cooler) with the immense cloud cover resulting in a minimal diurnal temperature range.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A warming trend begins on Tuesday lasting through the end of the upcoming work week. Southwesterly flow aloft develops over the region ahead of an approaching trough. Another cloudy day is in store across the region on Tuesday due to moist southerly surface flow. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid 50s to low 60s for most. The extent of the cloud cover will provide cooler temperatures across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico. The southwesterly flow aloft regime prevails through the rest of the work week as the trough gradually moves eastward. Continued cloud cover along with low (10-20%) rain chances for both Thursday and Friday are forecast. Warmer temperatures are expected to range from the 60s to mid 70s areawide Wednesday through Saturday. As the upper-level trough lifts northeast across the northern Plains, this will send a cold front to the region sometime late Saturday into Sunday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and low rain chances across the far eastern zones (eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos). Lows are forecast to mainly range from the 40s to 50s with the warmest lows occurring Thursday and Friday nights.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

MVFR or lower CIGs develop at MAF-HOB from 18Z-22Z. Winds from the N and then NE, gusting above 15 knots at terminals from 18Z-22Z in association with a cold front passage. CIGs drop to MVFR or lower at INK by 03Z-06Z, and to MVFR or lower at CNM-PEQ- FST by 07Z-11Z. Low confidence in IFR or lower CIGs at terminals 11Z-18Z, with higher confidence where BR/FG and/or SHRA develop. VIS down to MVFR or lower where BR/FG occurs. Winds from the E/SE at terminals by 15Z-18Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 45 51 47 57 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 45 53 47 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 51 56 50 60 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 46 55 48 63 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 41 47 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 40 51 44 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 57 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 45 52 48 57 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 45 52 47 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 44 54 48 61 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.