textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend, but a gradual cooling trend brings temperatures closer to normal early next week.

- Rain chances begin to increase out west on Friday, then becoming more widespread this weekend. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding and gusty winds will be the main threats with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows the upper-level ridge shifting westward from the southeastern CONUS bringing dry and sinking air to the region. Highs are forecast to range from upper 80s to mid 90s for most locations today and tomorrow. The good news is troughing approaching from the west weakens the upper ridge tomorrow, promoting ascent and moisture for storm development across the western half of the region. The greatest chances (20-40%) will extend from southeast New Mexico into the Davis Mountains late afternoon through the evening. Forecast soundings depict high PWATs (near to above 90th percentile), abundant DCAPE, modest mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep- layer shear indicating the threat of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail associated with the strongest storms. Lows in the mid 60s to 70s are expected each night. The aforementioned trough transitions closer to the region which looks to bring increased rain chances for much of the region along with cooler temperatures by early next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A weather pattern change is on the way beginning this weekend. Long- range guidance is in agreement with upper-level troughing near the region beginning on Saturday bringing abundant moisture and lift yielding appreciable rain chances the region has not seen in a while. The highest chances (50-70%) remain focused over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western higher terrain, where the most favorable moisture and lift are anticipated. Areas elsewhere will generally have a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers/storms especially on Saturday night. PWATs exceeding the 90th climatological percentile suggests the threat of heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. This will be something to monitor at least this weekend. Lowered heights associated with the upper trough and increased cloud cover will also cool temperatures gradually heading into next week. Model guidance still suggests uncertainty when temperatures truly cool down. Ensembles are starting to trend towards Tuesday, where highs are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s. However, these cooler temperatures will depend on the position of the cold front and trough.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions at terminals, with south/southeast winds 15 to 25 mph from beginning of the period through 00Z-03Z, before winds decrease through late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Winds then remain light and below 15 mph through the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 97 69 95 / 0 10 40 60 Dryden 74 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 66 88 66 85 / 0 20 40 60 Hobbs 68 94 69 94 / 0 0 10 40 Marfa 60 89 60 90 / 0 20 10 40 Midland Intl Airport 73 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 74 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.