textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 451 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Patchy fog is possible across the Permian Basin and far southeast New Mexico Christmas morning.

- Near record warm temperatures continue through Saturday ahead of a cold front that knocks temperatures down below normal by Monday.

- There is a low (20-35%) chance of precipitation Sunday night through Monday evening. There remains uncertainty in precipitation amounts, type, and timing.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Very warm conditions remain the primary weather story during the Christmas holiday. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the 70s for most of the region, with areas near the Rio Grande sitting in the 80s. We can thank an upper ridge for the above normal conditions. Santa may want to consider ditching his coat as he makes his way to West Texas tonight as near record warm temperatures are ahead. Lows are expected to dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s. The record warm low at MAF for Christmas morning is 53 degrees (set in 1964), while the current forecast calls for 54 degrees. Aside from the warmth, Santa may also need some help from Rudolf tonight. An area of surface high pressure is currently centered near the Florida Panhandle. This feature has been responsible for steering low-level moisture into our region the last couple of mornings. Christmas morning looks similar as models are indicating cloudy skies and the potential for patchy fog developing within the Permian Basin and portions of far southeast New Mexico. Fog would generally stay near and east of the Pecos River. Given uncertainty in the details, we will hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for now, but may consider one in the very near future. Stay tuned!

Christmas Day is still on track to potentially be our warmest Christmas on record. Southwesterly winds during the afternoon will aid in pushing temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. The forecast high at MAF is 81 degrees, with 78 degrees (set in 2021) being the temperature to beat. Temperatures hover near record territory again Thursday night, falling into the 40s and 50s. Our current record warm low for MAF on the morning of the 26th is 51 degrees (set in 2008). Provided the forecast holds, we could end up tying this record.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Well above normal temperatures continue late this week through Saturday as ridging aloft and southwesterly downslope flow at the surface continues. However, things change heading into Saturday night/early Sunday morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. This increases/shifts the winds to northerly and drops Sunday afternoon highs into the upper 60s to low 70s across the northern half of the CWA. By Sunday night into Monday, split flow aloft favors an increase in moisture as the subtropical jet moves over the area. This brings an increase in clouds and low (20-35%) chances of precipitation during this time frame. With that said, there remains uncertainty in precipitation amounts, type, and timing. The finer details will need to be ironed out in future forecast packages. Afternoon clouds yield highs below normal, with temperatures in the 40s for most.

At this time, Monday night looks to be the coldest night this period, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Sub-freezing temperatures could reach down into central Brewster and Presidio Counties, meaning that we will need to monitor for the potential of a first freeze in this region. Ensemble guidance indicates the return of ridging aloft and light southerly return flow by Tuesday, allowing for afternoon highs to warm into the 50s. However, there is a bit of uncertainty as there is large spread among the ensemble members. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 451 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Latest CAMs suggest stratus/fog will be much less extensive/patchier than last night, w/latest guidance suggesting KINK has the best chance of seeing stratus/fog overnight. However, we're not going to commit just yet due to model uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in light southwest surface flow, with a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 46 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 54 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 50 70 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 46 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 41 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 54 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 46 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.