textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1029 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Any isolated storms that develop Friday will carry a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and brief heavy rainfall. - Warmer conditions with isolated to scattered showers/storms expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Radar this morning shows showers are diminishing across southeastern New Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon along the dryline from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend as daytime heating and a passing upper disturbance increase instability. Highs will be similar to yesterday with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Stability increases Saturday as mid and upper flow becomes westerly and drier air filters into eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Dewpoints decrease about 20 degrees which also helps push temperatures up into the 90s for all but the Davis and Guadalupe mountains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Temperatures remain well into the 90s Sunday and Monday despite a return of low rain chances. Upper flow backs slightly causing more weak disturbances to move across the area and set off isolated to scattered afternoon storms. However enough low level warm air advection will occur to keep temps unseasonably warm for another couple of days.

A weak upper level low develops over the CWA on Tuesday and remains stationary through the end of the week due to stagnant high pressure over East Texas. Rain chances increase Tuesday and remain decent through the end of the forecast period with PoPs ranging from 30-60%. The upper level dynamics are very complicated and the only real model agreement is that there will be rain across the area next week. Details such as timing and amounts are still very much in doubt. Lower heights aloft combined with more widespread rainfall will bring temperatures down into the 80s for a very pleasant start to the month of June.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light return flow will veer to southwest Saturday morning. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL. Convection will be possible this afternoon/evening, especially KFST, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 96 68 98 / 20 0 0 10 Carlsbad 67 95 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 96 71 97 / 20 10 0 20 Fort Stockton 69 96 67 98 / 10 0 10 50 Guadalupe Pass 65 84 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 63 93 61 97 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 58 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 40 Midland Intl Airport 69 94 68 96 / 10 0 0 10 Odessa 69 94 68 96 / 10 0 0 20 Wink 68 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.