textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today areas across the higher terrain, southeast New Mexico, and some portions of far west Texas.

- Critical fire weather conditions are again in store Wednesday afternoon across the southeast New Mexico Plains, Permian Basin, and Upper Trans Pecos, prompting another Red Flag Warning.

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the next several days. Record high temperatures are forecast on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows upper- level ridging building into west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Surface analysis continues to depict a pressure trough axis extending from the Southern Great Plains to Guadalupe Mountains. This axis along with ridging aloft keeps the region breezy and warm today. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s and mid 80s for most locations. Winds are expected to peak during the afternoon and early evening hours where 15-20 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph are expected in the plains, while higher winds will occur in the mountains. Wind gusts up to 60 mph may hit briefly in localized spots (mainly at Guadalupe Pass) across the Guadalupe Mountains late this afternoon and early evening as guidance has medium (40-60%) probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. These breezy winds coinciding with very dry conditions also induces critical fire weather concerns across the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, and southeast New Mexico Plains during this timeframe. Elevated to near-critical fire concerns exist elsewhere. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details.

Tonight, a deepening surface low is expected to move into portions of the TX Panhandle. A weak (30-35 kts) low-level jet develops over west Texas keeping winds above 10 mph for most overnight. These winds will limit the normal diurnal temperature range yielding warm overnight temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Record-breaking high temperatures and continued breezy winds look to be in store on Wednesday. Surface troughing persists and will extend from eastern New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley. This will shift winds northwesterly and enhance low-level thermal ridging. This pattern once again brings near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to upper 80s for most locations. The current forecast at MAF is 87 degrees which would break the previous record of 86 degrees set back in 2009. Wednesday night, the aforementioned surface low shifts southeast into west central Texas. Similar winds compared with Tuesday night are expected which will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Temperatures cool down a touch behind a cold front Thursday. The front, ushered in by a shortwave rolling along the edge of an upper ridge, may also lead to breezy N/NE winds Thursday morning. Afternoon highs Thursday are forecast to reach the 70s across much of our region, with 80s in our southern counties and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. Thursday night, temperatures fall into the 40s/50s. Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge begins shifting eastward, promoting a warming trend. Highs in the 80s become more prevalent Friday afternoon. Saturday, highs in the 90s join the mix over portions of the Trans Pecos and near the Rio Grande. Some areas in the Big Bend look to top out near 100 degrees.

Sunday, ensemblesthe Later shifts will monitor trends, but at the very least a Rangeland Fire Danger statement may be needed for southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas on Wednesday given the near- critical fire weather conditions. show a an upper-level trough beginning to approach the west coast of the US. This feature translates eastward along with the ridge through the first few days of the upcoming week. Something to note heading into next week is there remains a broad temperature spread in NBM almost each day. This is attributed to model disagreement as to which feature will dominate our weather pattern and to what degree. The current forecast calls for the advancing trough to gradually flatten the ridge and push it southward, allowing temperatures to decrease through at least the middle of the week. That being said, temperatures Sunday generally warm just a few degrees shy of Saturday, with the exception of near 100 degree highs again along the Rio Grande. A cold front looks to attempt sweeping down from the Panhandle Monday, potentially becoming stalled either within our region, or just north of it. At the moment, highs Monday are forecast mainly range in the 70s and 80s. Monday night into Tuesday, the upper trough mentioned above begins nearing our area. Depending on the exact track and moisture content, this system could be our next shot at some rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures continue a downward trend Tuesday, as highs in the 70s become more commonplace.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. Westerly surface winds will veer slightly overnight, increasing and becoming gusty most terminals by late morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through early this evening over the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains, and the adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains/ Culberson/Reeves TX counties. Wednesday, temperatures are expected to warm near record territory. Wednesday afternoon, westerly and northwesterly 20 foot winds become breezy, at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph (locally over 40 mph gusts in the Guadalupe Mountains) and MinRH values between 11-14 percent will result in RFTI values up to 4-6 in much of the warning area. These combine to produce near- critical to critical fire weather conditions. As a result another Red Flag Warning goes into effect Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening over southeast New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos. Dry conditions, warm temperatures, and low afternoon RH values look to persist over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 49 87 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 52 88 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 51 93 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 88 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 52 85 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 43 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 51 88 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 51 87 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 49 88 54 80 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Wednesday for Andrews- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland- Reeves County Plains-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea.