textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- An upper-level system brings medium to high (40-80%) rain chances this weekend, with the best chances south of I-20. The heavy rainfall threat remains minimal across the region. - Cool temperatures (50s to 60s F highs) expected this weekend before temperatures warm back up early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Satellite imagery as of 3 AM CST has zonal upper-level flow over the region, while an upper low is situated across southeastern NV. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region ushering in cooler and drier air. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to 60s. Locations along and near the Presidio Valley and Rio Grande will span in the mid to upper 70s. Tonight, lows are forecast in the 40s to low 50s for most locations. The aforementioned upper low deepens east of Baja California. This allows rain chances (30-60%) to increase across the western half of the region (SE NM and far W TX) By Saturday afternoon, the highest rain chances/coverage (40-80%) shift for areas mainly south of I-20. Immense cloud cover will limit any opportunity for destabilization to occur, therefore, severe or even strong storms are not expected. Cannot rule out a couple of rumbles of thunder and a few elevated storms. Rainfall amounts are still uncertain, though PWATs remain low given drier air at the surface keeping the heavy rainfall threat minimal. High temperatures will trend cooler Saturday afternoon spanning from the 50s to low 60s.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Showers continue Saturday night through Sunday as the upper low moves slowly eastward. As a result, multiple rounds of light to moderate showers can be generally expected during this timeframe. Continued overcast and rainy conditions keep high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s for most locations. Guidance has the upper low eventually exiting the region by Monday afternoon. Lingering activity may occur across the Lower Trans Pecos with lift occurring on the backside of the low, however most areas will be dry.

Models continue to show a split jet pattern early to middle part of next week. This pattern will prevent cold Canadian air from filtering into the region and keeping temperatures near-normal for this time of year (mid 60s to mid 70s). Some guidance depicts a few upper-level disturbances moving across the region. These could bring low (10-30%) rain chances back into the forecast, though no significant weather impacts are expected under this pattern. Lows also look to remain above normal (40s to low 50s) which will prolong the first frost date for many areas in the meantime.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Winds from the east/northeast are forecast through the TAF period, with winds remaining light (less than 20 knots) at terminals. MVFR or lower CIGs develop from southwest to northeast from 10Z-15Z as SHRA/TSRA develop and more east/northeast over terminals. Medium confidence in regions of patchy BR/FG and reduced VIS. CIGs then remain MVFR or lower and continue to decrease to IFR from 15Z-18Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 49 59 49 61 / 0 60 60 40 Carlsbad 50 57 49 60 / 60 80 40 30 Dryden 54 61 53 59 / 10 70 90 80 Fort Stockton 50 59 51 59 / 20 70 80 70 Guadalupe Pass 44 49 45 54 / 70 90 40 20 Hobbs 46 56 46 60 / 20 50 30 30 Marfa 43 54 42 55 / 50 80 80 70 Midland Intl Airport 49 57 50 59 / 10 80 60 50 Odessa 49 57 50 59 / 10 80 60 50 Wink 50 59 49 61 / 20 90 50 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.