textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this timeframe.

- Breezy winds and dry conditions bring increased fire weather concerns to southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains through the weekend and into early next week.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-50% chances, up to around 60%) by the middle to latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The heat continues in the Short Term period as southwesterly to southerly winds persist across the region. Sunny skies and southwesterly downslope flow allows for highs to climb a few degrees warmer than yesterday's. Some spots across the Permian Basin (potentially including Midland/Odessa), the Trans Pecos, and along the Rio Grande can expect to see triple digit highs (between 105 F and 110 F across low-lying areas of the Big Bend) this afternoon. Short-range guidance continues to show surface troughing extending into our northern zones on Saturday. This looks to bring another day of breezy winds across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos this afternoon/evening (stronger in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains). Meanwhile, the dryline currently looks to shift east over our far eastern zones or just to the east of our forecast area. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated storm or two over our eastern zones this afternoon and evening (<10% chance).

An upper-level trough digs deeper into the southwestern CONUS by Sunday afternoon, leaving southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, surface troughing continues to bring breezy conditions across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos. Otherwise, southwesterly downslope flow persists, keeping afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s for most (between 105 and 110 F in portions of the Big Bend). Similar to Saturday, the dryline stays east and an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out. Chances at this time look to remain under 10 percent. Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The summer-like heat continues early next week before the pattern starts to become spring-like once again. Southwesterly flow aloft persists over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Monday. Surface troughing will yield another day of breezy downsloping winds across the area. This helps keep highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and low 100s across the region yet again. Fire weather concerns will likewise persist across at least southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains given the dry and breezy conditions. Low PoPs (10-20%) attempt to sneak back into our easternmost counties Monday night as the dryline retreats west.

The aforementioned pattern change begins Tuesday. Around this time, a trough moving over the Central and Northern Plains helps push a front our direction. Guidance suggests this front will begin to stall as it moves towards our area. Nevertheless, temperatures cool about 2-5 degrees relative to Monday (highs mainly in the low-to-mid 90s). Meanwhile, moisture increase in our eastern counties as the dryline shifts towards the west. Thus, rain chances once again increase for easternmost counties Tuesday afternoon and evening (10- 20%). By Wednesday, the dryline sets up even farther west, pulling more moisture across the eastern half of our area in particular. Pulses in the southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft, potentially coupled with the stalling front (depending on exactly where it sets up), is forecast to interact with this moisture and bring low-to- moderate shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50% generally, up to around 60%) back to the region. Long-range guidance indicates at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily after Wednesday as the dryline remains fixed over our area. Naturally, we will keep a close eye on how this all evolves, and monitor the severe weather potential for the middle of next week through the end of the period. Otherwise, increased moisture/cloud cover helps keep highs in the 70s and low-to-mid 80s through the end of the week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southerly winds continue this morning for most, shifting southwest and becoming gusty by Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 66 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 98 61 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 55 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 64 97 64 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.