textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- A strong front causes temperatures will bring strong northerly winds Sunday and colder temperatures Sunday night and Monday.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected areawide Sunday.

- Much warmer temperatures return during the middle to latter part of next week with record warmth possible.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

An upper-level trough will deepen as it translates from the northern Rocky Mountains to the central Plains tonight into Sunday. An associated strong cold front will push through southeast New Mexico and west Texas late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon/evening. Northwesterly winds will increase to 25-35 mph with gusts over 45 mph ahead of the approaching front by late Sunday morning. Winds will shift northerly to northeasterly and remain strong and gusty following the passage of the front Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening, for those sustained speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible at times, especially around the time of frontal passage. Westerly winds may approach 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph through tonight in the Guadalupe Mountains. Strong northeasterly gap winds can be expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night following the passage of the front. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains through late Sunday night. Winds will gradually relax over the area Sunday night into Monday morning as surface high pressure builds over Texas. Much colder temperatures return Sunday night with lows in the 20s to around freezing over much of the area with the exception of the Trans Pecos and along the Big Bend/Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Below normal temperatures can be expected on Monday with highs only reaching into the 50s over much of the forecast area. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail Tuesday into Wednesday between the persistent trough over the eastern CONUS and a strong upper-level high that will build over the Desert Southwest. The upper ridge will slowly build eastward toward southeast New Mexico and west Texas toward the middle to latter half of the week. Surface troughing will also take shape over the region and these features will bring a rapid warming trend Tuesday-Friday. Record warmth may impact the region Thursday and Friday, when highs are forecast to reach into the lower to mid 90s over much of the CWA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except for perhaps some MVFR visbys due to BLDU late in the forecast period. Southwesterly winds will remain elevated overnight, then veer to north Sunday, and increase/become gusty as a strong cold front approaches. The front itself looks to fropa only KHOB/KMAF near the end of the forecast period, and the other terminals after.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Westerly to northwesterly 20 foot winds will increase to 25-35 mph by late Sunday morning before shifting northerly to northeasterly at 25-35 mph with higher gusts Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. These strong winds in combination with very low RH values, and drying fuels will bring RFTI values to the 6-8 range areawide Sunday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. Much colder temperatures can be expected Sunday night and Monday following the passage of the front. Lighter winds will result in lowered fire weather concerns Monday through most of next week, though much warmer temperatures return through the middle to latter part of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 78 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 80 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 89 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 82 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 72 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 71 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 77 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 76 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 76 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 56 80 31 55 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.