textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall and an increased risk of flash flooding over the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon through late Thursday night. The pattern may continue to support heavy rainfall and a risk of flooding over these locations through late this week.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

V imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge anchored in place over the upper Texas Gulf Coast, while out west, an Omega block sits off the baja coast. Between both of these features is a conveyor belt transferring rich subtropical moisture into the region, as well as plenty of shortwave activity. As such, wetter, cooler conditions closer to fall than summer are expected in the short term. With diminished thicknesses and abundant cloud cover, today could very well be the coolest day this forecast as highs level off within a degree or so of climatology...very fitting, as fall has now officially begun. As for wetter conditions, ensembles increase pwats in the conveyor belt over New Mexico to 2-3 std devs above normal. KMAF radar bias has flipped to 1.2, a testament to the tropical nature of the AMS. Unfortunately, this means abysmal radar coverage, as radars will be overshooting warm rain processes that accompany such airmasses, and we'll be relying heavily on ground truth.

Satellite, radar, and CAMs continue to suggest best chances for precip over the short term will be Southeast New Mexico, where a FFA is in effect, and extends south into most of Culberson County. A shortwave is visible in WV imagery moving up through Chihuahua into the upper Presidio Valley, and will clock Southeast New Mexico later this afternoon/evening, resulting in perhaps the best rain chances this forecast. Abundant overcast and a 30 kt LLJ will keep overnight minimums an average around 10 F above normal.

Thursday, conditions/temperatures look very similar to today, w/coolest temperatures and best rain chances Southeast New Mexico. CAMs/QPF suggest extending the current watch another 24 hours. Depending on what transpires the next 18 hours, the FFA may need to be expanded in area as well.

Thursday night, CAMs increase chances Southeast New Mexico as another shortwave moves through southwest flow aloft. Temperatures look about the same as tonight.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Friday, a mid level ridge is progged to lie to our east, centered near East Texas, while an upper trough is positioned over the western US. Situated between these two features, southwesterly flow aloft continues to bring moisture over our region. Disturbances will also be embedded within the flow. At the surface, a trough looks to be oriented NE-SW across the Texas Panhandle and SE NM, aiding to draw in Gulf moisture. As a result, isolated to widespread showers and storms continue Friday, with rain chances ranging between 10-80% areawide. The best (50-80%) chances will favor the northern/ northwestern Permian Basin, SE NM, and the higher terrain in West Texas Friday. Rain chances decrease with southeastern progression, nearer the ridge core. We will still need to monitor for the potential of flash flooding Friday, mainly in our western counties, given there will have been several days of wetting rains by that point. Shower/storm activity then tapers down overnight Friday as a shortwave within the trough passes over the Rockies into the central Plains. The shortwave dampens the ridge and flow aloft becomes zonal by Saturday evening. Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances shift south of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon, with the best chances remaining in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Along with decreasing rain chances, temperatures gradually increase over the weekend. Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 80s at most locations, then cool to the 60s and 70s overnight. Saturday's highs top out in the 80s within the western portions of our region, with 90s in our eastern portions.

Upper ridging builds back over our region Sunday into Monday, ahead of another trough progged to approach the region Monday evening. Rain chances decrease further over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon and highs generally reach the 90s (80s in/near the higher terrain). With the approach of our next storm system, rain chances increase again Monday evening into Tuesday, again raising concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Of course, details shall be ironed out over the coming days, so stay tuned!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Band of SHRA/TSRA will reduce ceilings and visibility at times near KCNM overnight. Additional SHRA/TSRA will develop near KCNM and KHOB Thursday afternoon and evening, with localized MVFR or lower conditions near storms that develop. PROB30 for TSRA was included at KPEQ and KINK Thursday afternoon/evening. VFR otherwise continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 71 89 69 / 10 30 30 30 Carlsbad 81 64 82 63 / 50 70 70 30 Dryden 90 72 91 72 / 0 20 10 30 Fort Stockton 87 70 88 69 / 10 30 30 30 Guadalupe Pass 73 60 75 61 / 50 70 60 30 Hobbs 81 65 81 65 / 40 60 80 40 Marfa 80 59 80 58 / 30 50 50 50 Midland Intl Airport 88 70 86 69 / 10 40 40 30 Odessa 87 71 86 70 / 10 40 40 30 Wink 87 70 86 68 / 10 60 40 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.