textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western portions of the region through tomorrow. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis show the upper- level ridge of high pressure centered over Louisiana. This feature shifts farther west heading into today keeping rain chances mainly along and west of the Pecos River this afternoon and early evening. Subtle surface troughing will still be apparent across eastern New Mexico extending down to southwest Texas. The greatest coverage of storms remain over the Davis Mountains thanks to the surface troughing and upslope flow. Similar to previous days, a couple of storms that develop will be capable of producing strong winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. The greatest concern for localized flash flooding lies across the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and Stockton Plateau due to saturated soils/surfaces from recent heavy rainfall. Many locations especially east of the Pecos River are going to stay hot and dry with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s.

The aforementioned upper ridge pivots near the region on Sunday. Sinking motion under this feature promotes drier and similar warm temperatures. Isolated storms (10-30%) are expected Sunday afternoon across the higher terrain, Eddy County Plains, and far West Texas. Strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main hazards with the strongest storms. The weather pattern becomes drier heading into next week. See the long-term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A hot and dry weather pattern is in store for much of next week as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the ridge staying over the region through at least late next week. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river valleys look to range from 105 to near 110. As of now, Monday offers the "best" shot of showers/storms over the mountains, though overall chances remain low around 15%. From there, chances dwindle as the upper ridge parks over the region. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be expected each night.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Southerly winds at terminals throughout the period. A low (15% to 30%) chance of showers/storms is forecast for this afternoon, mainly for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos and the SE NM plains. Main risks with any storms are brief heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, and strong, variable winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 73 98 72 / 20 20 10 0 Dryden 98 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 68 90 67 / 30 20 20 0 Hobbs 98 71 97 69 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 90 62 88 61 / 40 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 75 98 74 / 10 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.