textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures persist through next week, with rain chances slim-to-none outside of the Davis Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The typical early August heat and mainly dry weather pattern persists through the short-term period. Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis has the upper ridge of high pressure near the region promoting this pattern to continue. Highs are expected to range from the upper 90s to low 100s regionwide this afternoon. Tomorrow, the aforementioned high pressure shifts slightly west, supplying northerly flow aloft. As a result, temperatures cool a degree or two from today where most locations will span in the mid to upper 90s. Similar temperatures regionwide, along with low chances (10-20%) of isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain and far West Texas return later this work week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The long term forecast remains rather pedestrian, but typical for this time of year: warm and dry. Thursday, the LREF and global models center the upper ridge just west or southwest of the Four Corners. The ridge is then forecast to oscillate west over the weekend, then back to near the Four Corners by midweek next week. The benefit of this placement, at least regarding West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, is that although warm temperatures will persist, they'll be cooler than if the ridge was closer. As such, heat advisories do not look warranted through the end of this forecast. That said, highs will still remain above normal, averaging ~ 4-7 F above climatology. Lows will remain unseasonably warm as well, mainly due to a recurring LLJ each night.

Under this synoptic scenario, triggers for convection will be elusive, save for an orographically-driven, isolated thunderstorm over the Davis Mountains, if that.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR continues for the TAF period. Southeasterly winds persist with occasional gusts between 20-25kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 70 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.