textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Isolated storms are expected across the higher terrain and far West Texas this afternoon/early evening. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats with the strongest storms.

- Above normal temperatures persist throughout this week. Most locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Radar imagery as of 1:45 AM CDT shows some showers across the Davis Mountains. These showers are associated with an upper low positioned south of the Davis Mountains, as seen on satellite. The low is expected to shift northwest into portions of far West Texas this afternoon. As a result, isolated showers/storms (10-30%) are in store again this afternoon and early evening across the Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West Texas. High- resolution forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles and abundant DCAPE ( > 1100 J/kg) highlighting a threat of gusty winds with the strongest storms. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be primary hazards. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. By Tuesday, the upper-level ridge becomes the dominant feature as the low exits the region, resulting in dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This pattern looks to continue heading into the long-term.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and dry weather pattern is in store throughout the week as an upper- level ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the ridge staying over the region through early next week. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the upper 90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river valleys look to range from 105 to 110. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two (< 10%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains each afternoon with upslope flow, though sinking motion under the ridge will mostly hinder convective initiation.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Southeast winds at terminals throughout the period, with occasional gusts up to or above 20 knots this afternoon/evening. A very low (10% to 15%) chance of isolated showers/storms for terminals southwest of the Pecos River is again forecast this afternoon through this evening. Main impacts from any storms will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and strong and variable winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 101 73 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 99 72 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 100 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 88 68 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 97 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 61 91 62 / 30 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.