textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected into next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through much of the upcoming week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor.

- The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over southeast Utah, just northwest of the Four Corners and, to a lesser extent, extending ESE through the Gulf Coast through Florida. As this feature continues to build away from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, thicknesses are projected to continue in decline, resulting in a gradual cooling trend, especially as surface winds back to more easterly in response to a strengthening surface trough out west. Highs this afternoon should be ~ 3-4 F below yesterday's, averaging a degree or so above climatology. Despite the easterly flow, weather looks rather pedestrian this afternoon, outside of isolated convection in the Big Bend Area/lower Trans Pecos.

Tonight, temperatures look very similar to last night's, around 3-5 F above normal due to a 30 kt LLJ, with a few high clouds to retard radiational cooling. Isolated convection will continue in the southeast, but convection is anticipated in the South Plains/ northeast New Mexico, and a few cells could graze our northern zones this evening, posing a wind threat more than anything else.

Sunday, the upper ridge develops up into the upper Midwest, allowing thicknesses/temperatures to decrease further, shaving another 2-3 F off today's temperatures. For those who prefer cooler weather, highs should average a couple of degrees below normal. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be reached early, w/a widespread, low-based cu field developing. Convective chances increase on residual boundaries in the north, but CAMs also show quite a bit of instability/development along the border to the south. Again, damaging winds look to be the main concerns.

This activity will continue into Sunday night, with chances possibly increasing as the ridge continues lifting north. Deep easterly flow will increase PWATs, w/the NAM increasing to 1.82" at KMAF late Sunday night. The 100th percentile is 1.72", and the record 1.74". This may be the start of a brief wet spell for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The LLJ doesn't look quite as strong, so overnight lows may be a degree or so cooler than tonight, but still just above normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Upper level ridging shifts toward the northern Plains and the Midwest to start the new work week. Several disturbances will roll over our region within the easterly/northeasterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface high to our northeast brings easterly/ southeasterly winds across our region early next week, aiding in milder temperatures and increased rain chances. Highs Monday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. By Tuesday, highs in the 80s become more commonplace, with 70s in the higher terrain. Cooler conditions continue through Thursday before temperatures begin to warm up again heading toward the weekend. Temperatures settle within the 60s to low 70s most nights.

Near daily rain chances accompany these mild temperatures, with much of our region seeing at least a 20% chance of rain each day of the period. At the moment, shower/storm coverage ranges from isolated to scattered each afternoon and evening. Ensembles also show PWAT values anywhere between 1-2" most of the week, suggesting a potential for occasionally heavy rainfall. Should certain areas see multiple rounds of rainfall, especially if locally heavy, the risk of flooding will be something to monitor. The best day for more widespread rainfall currently looks to be Tuesday into Tuesday night, when an upper low translates westward over Texas, providing an extra source of lift. Generally, the highest rain chances will lie south of the I-20 Corridor over the course of the next several days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Convection will be possible, moreso later in the forecast period, but chances are too low for a mention attm. Forecast soundings develop a cu field by late Sunday morning, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 94 71 91 / 0 10 50 50 Carlsbad 72 94 69 90 / 10 10 50 40 Dryden 73 93 72 93 / 20 30 30 50 Fort Stockton 71 91 70 90 / 10 30 10 50 Guadalupe Pass 67 85 65 82 / 0 10 30 60 Hobbs 69 92 67 89 / 10 10 50 40 Marfa 62 85 59 83 / 10 70 40 90 Midland Intl Airport 73 92 71 90 / 10 20 40 50 Odessa 73 91 71 89 / 10 20 40 50 Wink 73 93 71 91 / 0 10 30 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.