textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1107 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

- An upper-level storm system brings low to medium (30-60%) rain chances to the area through this evening. No flash flooding is expected as rainfall amounts should be modest.

- Medium to high rain chances (40-80%) return Friday and Saturday, mainly across the northern and eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. No flash flooding is expected as rainfall amounts should be modest.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1255 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Current radar is showing weak echoes west of the Pecos River. Rainfall should increase this afternoon beginning in the Big Bend and quickly spread northeast tonight into the Permian Basin. Model consensus shows the associated upper level low producing the rainfall moving across southern portions of the CWA as it moves out of Mexico, thus the highest rainfall amounts should be south of I-20. The rain ends early Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east and into central Texas. Clouds and precipitation today should hold highs about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what was seen yesterday. A weak cold front enters tonight and will keep temperatures fairly close to normal on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1255 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Temperatures make a sharp rebound Thursday as a broad upper ridge quickly moves out of the Rocky Mountains. Highs jump up about 15 degrees above normal before the next upper level system moves into the western United States and approaches New Mexico and Texas. Several days ago, models were showing this trough to be open and positively tilted, pushing much of the moisture to our east and allowing for only light rainfall amounts. Successive runs however keep deepening the trough and giving it more of a neutral tilt which would hold deeper moisture farther west allowing for higher rainfall totals. In addition, surface dewpoints and precipitable water values (PWATs) are very high which could enable efficient rainfall production. There will not be any significant flooding potential, but it is good to see some beneficial rains early in the this new year...something we have not been seeing recently. Temperatures should remain above freezing across the entire area so there is no threat for wintry precipitation, even in the mountains.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

MVFR or lower CIGs possible for terminals across Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau into central and eastern Permian Basin from beginning of period into 23Z-02Z, especially in any rain or thundershowers. South/southwest winds at terminals back to north/northeast this afternoon in association with a cold front passage. VFR VIS except for MVFR or lower VIS in any showers/thundershowers. A chance of MVFR CIGs again redevelops for terminals on the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and along Pecos River into southern Eddy and Lea Counties from 08Z-12Z, persisting in spots through end of period as winds at terminals veer back to southeast and advect more humid air back into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 41 66 47 78 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 44 64 44 76 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 50 72 53 81 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 47 69 51 80 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 43 60 47 67 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 40 64 44 75 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 38 66 38 73 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 43 66 49 78 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 43 66 49 77 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 43 64 46 78 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.