textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Scattered showers/storms develop today into tonight, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and in SE NM. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and strong winds.

- Near-normal highs expected through this weekend behind a cold front. Temperatures begin to warm again early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A cold front is slowly making its way across our region this afternoon, serving as a focal point for isolated to scattered shower/ storm development through this evening. Showers are ongoing within the Lower Trans Pecos, headed southeast. Additional rain chances later this afternoon range from 10-50% areawide, with the best odds overlaying the southern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos, in the vicinity of the boundary. This evening, CAPE values near 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear near 30kts over SE NM will support clustering storm development. Hi-res models suggest a storm complex sweeps into SE NM, then dissipates shortly before or after entering west Texas. This convection will have the potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts, primarily due to outflow, along with marginally severe hail. Another hazard we will need to monitor for will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially in SE NM. The front reaches our southern counties by Sunday, resulting in low (10-20%) rain chances near the Big Bend and the higher terrain. Aside from rain chances, the cold front brings cooler conditions through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures Sunday afternoon are forecast to mainly reach into the 90s. Lows tonight and Sunday night fall to the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

After a brief cool down and some rainfall across portions of our region, warmer and drier conditions return at the start of a new work week. The upper trough that initially brought us a cold front over the weekend slides eastward. In its place, upper ridging centered over the Desert Southwest begins to build toward our region, prompting warmer temperatures. Triple digit highs return to much of the Permian Basin, SE NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Rio Grande Valley Monday and Tuesday. Midweek, the ridge looks to become slightly flattened by an upper trough translating across the northern US. Lower heights allow temperatures to drop back a couple of degrees. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to reach the upper 90s to low 100s each afternoon, with the hottest conditions generally near and along the river valleys. Overnight lows can be expected to cool mainly into the 70s each night. Aside from isolated afternoon convection in the vicinity of the higher elevations, most look to remain dry through the Long Term period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. SHRA has passed south of all TAF sites though redevelopment is possible near CNM/FST later this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 98 73 102 / 30 0 0 0 Dryden 73 98 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 70 96 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 90 68 95 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 68 96 70 100 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 63 90 62 92 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 71 97 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 97 72 102 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.