textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Scattered moderate to locally heavy rain showers develop Saturday through Sunday. The heaviest rain showers will impact locations mainly along and south of I-20. Localized ponding of water may occur in urban/poor drainage areas.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Warming and drying trend ensues early to middle next week, with highs rising into 60s and 70s, while lows stay in 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Weak mid to upper ridging with large scale sinking motion over the area provides another day of relatively dry weather today. Northeasterly winds persist behind a cold front, but remain light, except for 15 to 25 mph winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares. Highs only rise into the 60s F for most of the area today, with 50s F for higher elevations and northern parts of Lea County and the Permian Basin, and 70s F confined to the southern Rio Grande basin. Lows tonight again fall into the 40s to 50s F. However, lower cloud ceilings develop from southwest to northeast through early Saturday, limiting overnight cooling more than previous nights.

A mid to upper disturbance over SoCal/Desert SW will develop into the northern MX plateau this weekend, with increased forcing for ascent and focusing of moisture within a southwest jet streak ahead of it. This will allow rounds of scattered showers/storms to develop. PoPs increase to 45% to 60% from west to east along and southwest of the Pecos River and I-20 Saturday morning as the first round moves through. Lowering cloud ceilings through the day in east/northeast pivoting showers/storms limit daytime heating and keep highs in the 50s F, 40s F higher elevations, with 60s F only for more sheltered river valley and plain regions northeast of the Pecos River, as well as Rio Grande basin into Terrell County. Rain chances remain medium to high (45% to 60%) along the I-20 corridor Saturday night, as lows fall to similar values as tonight. Ensembles depict a 45% to 55% chance of 0.50"-0.75" of rainfall over the Marfa Plateau through Saturday morning, with similar amounts and chances again through Sunday morning. High-res models depict showers/storms developing east/northeast rather than slow, nearly motion, limiting heavy rainfall over one location for more than an hour. Therefore, we are not anticipating major flash flooding, although ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas are possible, especially near sloped terrain.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Additional showers/storms develop over the northern MX plateau and move east/northeast into the area Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as the mid to upper disturbance continues to dig into the northern MX plateau into SW TX. Medium to high (45% to 60%) rainfall chances will persist east of the Marfa Plateau and southeast of the SE NM plains, tapering off through the day as greatest forcing shifts to the east with eastward development of the disturbance away from the area. A 45% to 55% chance of 0.50"-0.75" of rainfall through Monday morning is again present along and south of I-20. While scattered heavy showers/storms will again pose risk of ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas, Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC only indicates a MRGL risk of heavy rainfall as on Saturday. Therefore, we are not expecting major nor widespread flash flooding. Highs will only warm a few degrees from Saturday as cloud ceilings slow lift and erode from northwest to southeast. Similarly, lows will not fall much lower than previous nights.

Early to the middle of next week in wake of the mid to upper disturbance, ridging again builds over the Central CONUS, allowing for a warming and drying trend. Highs rise back into the 60s F for most of the area Monday, then into the 60s to mid 70s F Tuesday, followed by solidly into the 70s F most locations apart from higher elevations by the middle of next week. Lows will continue to fall into the 40s and 50s F, so the diurnal spread of 20F-25F will still be present, allowing for chilly but not freezing nights each morning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR prevails through the overnight hours before ceilings lower to MVFR to IFR thresholds over all terminals between 13-17Z Saturday as areas of -RA with embedded SHRA increase in coverage. Vis may be reduced to MVFR or locally lower thresholds within heavier SHRA Saturday. Light E/NE winds otherwise remain prevalent for the most part through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 47 58 49 60 / 0 50 30 50 Carlsbad 49 56 48 58 / 40 60 20 40 Dryden 54 61 54 59 / 10 50 90 100 Fort Stockton 49 59 51 57 / 40 90 90 90 Guadalupe Pass 44 48 44 52 / 60 90 30 60 Hobbs 45 55 45 59 / 20 50 10 20 Marfa 44 54 44 54 / 60 60 90 90 Midland Intl Airport 47 57 49 58 / 0 70 30 70 Odessa 47 57 48 57 / 10 60 40 70 Wink 50 59 50 59 / 30 90 40 70

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.