textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Near record daytime high temperatures again expected following a brief cooldown early this week.

- Breezy southeast winds east of the dryline become breezy areawide by Thursday into Friday, increasing fire risk.

- A strong cold front expected Friday into Saturday could produce gusty winds and blowing dust.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon shows a few clouds drifting from northwest to southeast. Highs rise from the 60s F north of the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County early this afternoon into the 70s F north of the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County by late afternoon. Northeast winds veer to east/southeast by late afternoon, becoming breezy from the Big Bend into the Guadalupes before decreasing later tonight. Dew point temperatures in the 30s and 40s F will inhibit immediate overnight cooling below 55F until later in the night, before lows bottom out into the 50s F, and mid 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau, Pecos River valley Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos, and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin. Mid to upper ridging increases once more 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for Tuesday. This allows highs to rise from the lower 60s to lower 70s F mid-morning, into the upper 60s to upper 70s F range by late morning Tuesday, rising farther into the 70s F to mid 80s F range, and into the upper 80s to mid 90s F, mid 90s to upper 90s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend by late afternoon. East/southeast winds shifting to southwest early in the day will help to strengthen a dryline from the Big Bend into the northwest Permian Basin and allow for warmer air from farther west/southwest to be transported back into the area. While winds will be breezy at most, mid to upper ridging and the sustained southwest near surface winds will allow highs to quickly rise back to at least 20F above average. The dryline develops back west overnight Tuesday. The retrograding dryline will not be accompanied by any rain, but it will allow more humid air characterized by dew point temperatures above 40F to limit overnight cooling and keep lows above 59F for much of the eastern and southeast Permian Basin, while lows in the 50s F and down into the 40s F for southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau will still be found west of the dryline, where dew point temperatures remain in the teens to 30s F and enable more efficient overnight cooling under mostly clear skies. Light southerly winds show the heat will not be a one day event, but it is also not a sign that the renewed heat will stick around for very long. Read the long term discussion below for more details on how the weather is expected to progress into next week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Near record high temperatures once again make a reappearance for Wednesday and Thursday. Mid to upper ridging will not be as strong as this past weekend. However, it will still be anomalously strong and bring temperatures more typical of June and July to the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday will be the warmer of the two days as core of ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion is positioned more directly over the area. 500 mb heights and temperatures rising up to 3.5 standard deviations above normal in NAEFS ensemble situational awareness table. EFI 0.8 to 0.9 and SOT 0.5 to 1.0, especially southwest of the Pecos River into SE NM, are evident until Friday evening in ECMWF runs, showing potential for near high temperatures are possible until then. However, due to strength of ridging falling short of this past weekend, all time record highs for March set during the most recent early season heatwave may remain standing this time. Dew point temperatures will also remain below 50F, even east of a dryline over the central Permian Basin into Big Bend, despite breezy southeasterly winds during the afternoon allowing for advection of more humid air from the coastal plain and Gulf. This will largely keep apparent temperatures in the 90F-95F range despite actual air temperatures Wednesday in the upper 80s F to upper 90s F, triple digits Presidio Valley into Big Bend. This will fortunately keep Heat Risk low outside of direct sunlight and the mid morning to late afternoon hours. Lows also cool into the 50s to 60s F range, mid to upper 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau Wednesday and Thursday nights as dew point temperatures below 40F and largely below 30F western higher terrain into Eddy County Plains allow for continued efficient overnight cooling.

Another reality check (albeit also short-lived) will be arriving Friday into Saturday as a strong cold front consolidates over the Northern Great Plains Thursday and develops rapidly south Friday. Gusty north/northeast winds up to at least 35 to 45 mph will allow for CAA to proceed from north to south, with highs ranging from the 60s F over the northern part of the area behind the cold front, 70s F and 60s F higher elevations from the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau, and 80s F mainly south of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. It is not out of question that wind and blowing dust products may be needed once again with this cold front. By Friday night under decreasing northeast, the return of low in the 40s to 50s F range, with mid to upper 30s southwest foothills and peaks of Marfa Plateau as well as northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin will be seen. Increasing clouds and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average for late March are expected Saturday, characterized by 60s F apart from 70s F south of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and 50s F for higher elevations of Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos. Another cool night falling into the 40s and 50s F will be followed by an abrupt return of warmer and more humid weather accompanied by rain chances late weekend into next week, with highest rain chances currently seen over the Presidio Valley into Culberson County extending east into the Big Bend into northwest Permian Basin. A return to lows in the 50s F apart from 40s F higher elevations and northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin is also expected. At this time, it's too early to give more details on the increased chance of rain showers, but expect warm but not too unseasonably warm weather and more humid conditions by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail, along with generally light and variable winds. Winds become southwesterly Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 50 95 56 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 55 93 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 95 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 92 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 44 89 47 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 53 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 54 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 52 95 54 98 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.