textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Medium (40-60%) rain chances today, mainly across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin of west Texas, and in/around the higher terrain.

- Below normal temperatures expected again today increasing to near normal Wednesday.

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend and a few storms could become severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light showers are making their way across the region this morning, but it will take some time for moisture to fill in closer to the surface as the air is still quite dry based on current observations. Scattered showers will continue to move in from the west over the course of the day today. A few thunderstorms may be seen, but these should be ordinary thunderstorms with gusty winds, lightning, and brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Rain amounts will be on the order of a few hundredths to a couple tenths under the heaviest precipitation. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 70s for parts of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico thanks to showers and cloud cover. Further south, highs move into the 70s and into the 80s across Big Bend. By tonight, showers taper off as weak upper level ridging moves into the area. Drier conditions are expected for Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge keeps rain chances low (<10%). With less cloud cover, highs move up into the upper 70s to low 80s for most.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Continued southeast low level flow brings in moisture across the region by late Wednesday and into Thursday. Another upper level disturbance brings broad, but low (10-30%) rain chances for much of the area for the day on Thursday. Similar to Thursday, Friday sees low rain chances continue for the area with temperatures once again reaching into the 80s for most. Long range guidance shows PWATs increasing to between an 1-1.2" over the eastern half of the CWA heading into Saturday. Based on sounding climatology, this would easily rank over the 95th percentile for early to mid april at KMAF if this forecast holds. There will be broad ascent out ahead of an upper trough moving into the Desert Southwest this coming weekend in addition to the moisture, which may make for favorable conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms. However, confidence is not high enough to set any particular details regarding timing or hazards types beyond the potential for heavy rainfall. Stay tuned to changes in the forecast.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR continues at all terminals. Intermittent -SHRA may be seen at all sites, but confidence is low on exact timing for much of the period. Otherwise, winds remain around 10-15kts and southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 65 47 77 54 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 69 43 82 50 / 70 20 0 0 Dryden 75 52 79 59 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 50 82 56 / 40 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 46 74 53 / 60 10 0 0 Hobbs 62 42 79 50 / 60 30 0 0 Marfa 73 39 77 45 / 40 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 47 78 56 / 40 10 0 0 Odessa 66 47 78 56 / 40 10 0 0 Wink 70 48 80 55 / 50 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.