textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 - A 25% to 55% chance of showers/storms over the northeast and eastern to central parts of the Permian Basin, and a 15% to 35% chance from the Marfa Plateau into Stockton Plateau. A few storms be may be strong, with damaging winds and hail the main threats.

- Strong north/northeast winds are forecast for the SE NM plains into eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, and continuing into the evening for the Guadalupes. Blowing dust will reduce visibility. Delay travel through passes if possible.

- Cooler weather to start the week before warmer than average temperatures return. Rain chances also develop each afternoon/evening later in the week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

An active late weekend is shaping up. Much of the weather across the area will depend on timing of a cold front developing in from the OK and TX Panhandles into the TX South Plains, and now moving through the SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin. Behind the cold front, expect highs ranging from the 70s to mid 80s F. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds are still prevalent, which will allow highs to climb into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations. Models have trended up regarding highs over the central Permian Basin, and observations early this afternoon depict increasing southerly winds shifting to more southwesterly across the central and eastern Permian Basin (including the Midland-Odessa area) into Terrell County. This suggests that the cold front may stall anywhere from there to along the Pecos River today. If this happens, we are looking at an increased risk for showers/storms farther west since the dryline will not be pushed as far south and east. This will allow for a more unstable air mass to sync with daytime heating, forcing along the cold front, and a northwest to southeast developing short wave disturbance to aid in formation of showers/storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau and Terrell County by the afternoon/evening. A 25% to 55% chance of showers/storms will be maximized over the easternmost Permian Basin, while a 15% to 35% shower/storm chances also exists over the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, and we even cannot rule out of stray shower/storm over the SE NM plains into Guadalupes. Assuming a slower passage of the cold front, the chance of showers/storms over western higher terrain will also be greater, since forcing along the dryline will be in closer proximity to daytime heating of elevated terrain. SPC has extended a MRGL risk from the easternmost CWA along the Pecos River and western higher terrain of W TX and a SLGT risk into the easternmost Permian Basin, with damaging winds and hail highlighted as the main threats in stronger storms. Brief heavy rainfall is also possible. However, given relatively quick northwest to southeast motion of storms in high-res CAMs and deterministic and ensemble models continuing to show rainfall of only a few tenths of an inch at most except for far eastern portions of the Permian Basin, we are not expecting widespread flooding at this time in most locations where heavy rain does fall. The other story as the short wave develops southeast will be north/northeast winds over the western higher terrain (especially Guadalupes), sustained at 35 to 45 mph and gusting to and above 65 mph at higher elevations. Accordingly, a High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and surrounding passes this afternoon/evening through tonight. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for the southeast New Mexico plains into eastern Culberson County until this afternoon, due to observed strong northerly winds. It is advisable to delay any travel through passes for the duration of the strong winds if you are able to. Lows tonight fall into the 50s to lower 60s F, mid to upper 40s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau as the cold front finally clears the area and CAA sets in.

The beginning of the week is shaping up to be much quieter. Highs will struggle to reach the mid 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations north of the Rio Grande basin, and only rise into the lower to mid 90s F for the warmest spots along the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. Surface high pressure behind the cold front develops to the east of the area during the day, allowing winds to veer back to southeasterly upslope flow. However, air mass recovery will take some time to occur, so dew point temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s F coupled with highs in the 70s and 80s F will maintain relatively cool and dry weather for the remainder of the day, giving way to nighttime lows largely once again in the 50s to lower 60s F. This cooler weather is virtually certain to be short-lived. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The mid to upper pattern will give way to increased ridging and large scale sinking motion beneath return southeasterly upslope flow, allowing warmer than average temperatures to return while drier conditions characterized by dew point temperatures 30F and below remain farther west. By Tuesday, highs in the mid 80s to 90s F will once again be commonplace, with lows falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s F. Mid to upper ridging over the Intermountain West expands to the east by mid-week, with a warming trend in temperatures from Wednesday and Thursday through Friday. Highs in the upper 80s to 90s F, triple digits along the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Wednesday persist into Thursday, then rise into the 90s F and above for all but the highest elevations on Friday, with triple digits along the Pecos River into the Permian Basin as well as the Rio Grande basin. To give an idea of how warm it might get, readings near 110F are indicated over the Big Bend by the end of the week. Lows likewise climb from lower to mid 60s F, lower to mid 50s F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos Wednesday night to mid 60s F to lower 70s F, lowers 60s F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos by Friday night. We are still monitoring the potential for hazardous heat over the area late next week. However, the building heat will be constrained by increased rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the weekend. At this time the specifics of what kind of impacts will accompany shower/storm activity are still unclear, but each day PoPs 15% to 20% over heated terrain during the day are indicated, increasing to 20% to 25% over southern and eastern portions of the area by the end of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Seeing strong north winds across the SE NM terminals behind a cold front with gusts approaching 50 mph. This front will slide south affecting KMAF and KFST later this afternoon with similar winds. TS could affect KMAF, but confidence is to low to add in the forecast for now. MVFR CIGs will develop behind the front affecting most of the terminals this evening and overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 80 58 92 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 83 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 84 62 90 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 83 60 94 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 76 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 51 81 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 50 80 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 82 59 92 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 57 82 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 57 83 59 94 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Eastern Culberson.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.