textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Fire weather concerns increase over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday and Monday as an upper-level system leads to strong winds.

- Breezy conditions expected to continue each day through at least Monday, with stronger winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.

- Rain chances (10-40%) begin to increase and temperatures trend downward during the latter half of the week as another storm system approaches.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the next upper trough off the west coast, set to make landfall this evening just south of the Bay Area, keeping zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Mostly sunny skies are combining with a westerly downslope warming component to push afternoon highs to around 10 F above climatology.

Tonight, a 30 kt westerly LLJ will keep mixing in play, combining with a fetch of high cloud to retard radiational cooling and keep overnight minimums ~ 10-15 F above normal.

Sunday, as the upper trough moves east through the Rockies, leeside troughing on the Front Range will induce increasing westerlies over the region, developing a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes and high winds by late morning. This event could last into the extended forecast, as the HREF follows the first trough with a secondary trough Monday. Thus, we've upgraded the high wind Watch to a long-fused warning, which successive shifts can adjust as needed. We've also issued shorter warnings/advisories for adjacent plains Sunday afternoon/evening. These increased winds will add another couple of degrees to Sunday's highs over today's, for perhaps the warmest day this forecast as temperatures soar into the 90s most locations. With all this will come critical fire wx conditions, the details of which can be ascertained in the fire wx discussion below.

Sunday night, temperatures will be in the ballpark of tonight's, if not a degree or so cooler due to less cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Breezy westerly winds continue into Monday as the upper-level jet remains overhead. Meanwhile, a weak cold front moves through our area during the morning hours, dropping Monday's highs 2-6 degrees from the previous day's across the northern half of our CWA despite downslope flow. Winds remain stronger in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, but is expected to be just below High Wind criteria at the moment. These winds coupled with warm and dry conditions maintain near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Monday (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details).

By Tuesday, winds decrease as the upper-level trough pushes off to the northeast. Slightly higher heights and continued westerly downslope flow allows high temperatures to warm a few degrees from Monday's across the northern half of our area. However, models continue to show surface high pressure developing over the Central Great Plains and pushing another cold front into our region by midweek. This yields temperatures in the 80s across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and locations out west. Rain chances (10- 20%) return across the eastern half of our area by Wednesday evening as the dryline retreats westward. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis depicts another upper-level trough moving over southeast New Mexico and west Texas by the latter part of next week, further increasing rain chances (generally 10-40%). However, it should be noted that there remains great uncertainty in much of the details at the moment and will need to continue monitoring trends. With that said, lower heights associated with the trough and increased cloud cover yield cooler temperatures late next week. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain southwesterly to westerly. Gusts diminish over the next couple of hours. Winds become gusty once again late tomorrow morning and through the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Little has changed since the last forecast package, but a few details are worth mentioning. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue the rest of this afternoon across the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and the surrounding plains in Culberson/Eddy Counties due to MinRHs below 15%, with 20ft winds near and slightly above 20 mph. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continues for these locations this afternoon through this evening. Though it should be noted that increased high level cloud cover should mitigate grassland fire spread and growth if any fires were to ignite. Although recent wetting rains have improved ERCs across much of west Texas, fuels remain dry in southeast New Mexico. Critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions continue over similar locations on Sunday and Monday given stronger winds and persistent dry conditions. ERCs look to rise Sunday and Monday as fuels continue to dry with no relieving rains expected in the near- term. As such, we have opted to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for these areas from Sunday afternoon through the evening. A Red Flag Warning will likely need to be issued for Monday as well. However, have decided to hold off on issuing additional fire weather products for now to avoid any confusion. Fire weather conditions should improve by Tuesday as winds are forecast to trend downward and MinRHs upward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 95 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 93 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 66 93 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 64 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Sunday to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for Eastern Culberson.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Eddy County Plains.

Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Central Lea-Northern Lea.