textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak today and Friday, nearing record high temperature territory both days. Temperatures gradually decrease into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Current satellite imagery continues to depict ridging over eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, the remnants of Edouard remain to the east of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The upper-level ridge will begin to make its way westward again towards the Great Plains going into the weekend. At the surface, temperatures remain hot through the Short Term. Highs both today and tomorrow top out near or above 100 degrees for most locations, with low 90s in the higher terrain. Lows stay generally in the low-to-mid 70s. However, upslope flow and pulses rounding the western periphery of the ridge are already allowing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The best coverage later this afternoon and evening looks to be for similar areas as yesterday (southeast New Mexico and for locations south and west of the Pecos, especially in the higher terrain). Chances for these areas range between 20- 40%. However, CAMs such as the HRRR and RRFS do try to bring a couple of isolated showers and storms into mainly western portions of the Permian Basin as well. As a result, 10-20% PoPs have been included there and into portions of the Upper Trans-Pecos. Friday afternoon features similar chances to today in similar locations. The main difference is CAMs try to develop isolated convection in the far eastern Permian Basin tomorrow thanks to the relative proximity of Edouard's remnants (and associated outflow boundaries). So far have left PoPs around 10-15% for the eastern Permian Basin, but they may be increased in future forecast updates if trends continue. Storms that do develop both days could produce strong winds, heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding, and frequent lightning. Going into next week, it looks like temperatures finally start to trend back down - see the Long Term Forecast Discussion for additional details!

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The upper-level ridge builds back over the Great Plains this weekend, with its southwestern edge holding its grip on our area. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 90s across much of the region Saturday, with triple digit heat confined to the Pecos River/Rio Grande Valleys and northeast portions of the Permian Basin. The good news is Saturday looks to be the last day of widespread triple digit heat. By early next week, the upper ridge slowly moves east towards the southeastern CONUS. Decreasing thicknesses will allow for tempertures to gradually cool a degree almost daily next week. Increasing Gulf moisture overrunning southeasterly upslope flow yields daily chances of convection across the western higher terrain. The best chances (20-40%) remain confined to the Davis Mountains and surrounding areas. However, it's not out of the realm of possibility that convective development could spread eastward mid-to-late next week. We will continue to monitor trends and refine the forecast as new data warrants it. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail with light southeast winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -TSRA have been maintained for HOB and CNM, and have also been introduced for INK and PEQ. TEMPOs will be added if necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 101 73 100 / 10 10 20 0 Dryden 77 102 75 99 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 75 100 73 98 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 90 69 89 / 20 20 30 10 Hobbs 73 100 72 98 / 10 0 10 10 Marfa 64 91 63 90 / 10 30 20 50 Midland Intl Airport 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 77 100 75 98 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 77 102 75 100 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.