textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Temperatures will remain slightly below normal today before warming back to well above normal values Tuesday through Sunday. Record warmth will be possible on Wednesday.

- The combination of breezy westerly winds, very low relative humidity values, and dry fuels will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Upper level ridging will build over the Desert Southwest through Tuesday afternoon while northwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A cool surface ridge of high pressure extending from the northern Plains to Texas early this morning will gradually shift east through this afternoon as surface lee troughing takes shape from eastern Colorado to northeastern New Mexico. Surface winds will become breezy from the south over portions of southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region late this morning into this afternoon. We will have one more day of slightly below normal temperatures today with highs reaching into the lower to mid 60s over much of our forecast area. Lows tonight will average near normal in the 30s to lower 40s.

Surface low pressure will deepen over the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles on Tuesday. Low level thermal ridging will strengthen along the associated surface trough axis that will extend southward into our forecast area Tuesday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient along the surface trough axis will bring breezy westerly winds to much of our area by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will trend much warmer along this feature with afternoon highs ranging in the mid 70s to mid 80s across most of our region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

An upper level ridge will remain anchored over the Baja and Desert Southwest through the middle to latter part of the week. A very dry northwesterly pattern aloft will persist over our forecast area to the east of this feature into Friday. A surface trough will continue to extend from eastern New Mexico into west Texas on Wednesday. Another round of breezy W/NW winds can be expected along with much above normal temperatures across our forecast area on Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures should warm well into the 80s over much of the region with some readings between 90-95 degrees possible along the Rio Grande and into the Lower Trans Pecos. There is a good chance we will either tie or perhaps break the February 25th record high of 86 degrees set at MAF in 2009. A cold front still looks on track to push through much of our forecast area by Thursday morning. This feature will bring a period of breezy N/NE winds to our region on Thursday but highs should only be knocked back down into the 70s over much of the area, except for some 80s along the far southern fringes of the CWA. Surface lee troughing takes shape over our area again on Friday and Saturday so temperatures look to trend back upward into the upper 70s to the 80s. It is possible another front could push into the area by Sunday but temperatures still look to average well above normal into the latter part of the weekend. Morning lows also stay above normal in the 40s and 50s from the midweek into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR will remain prevalent through the TAF period. Winds will pick up from the S/SE and become occasionally gusty at times late this morning into this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The combination of temperatures trending well above normal, breezy southwesterly to westerly 20-foot winds up to 15-25 mph with some gusts of 30-40 mph, very low RH values around 10 percent, and drying fuels will bring critical fire weather conditions to the plains of southeast New Mexico and the Sacramento/Guadalupe/ Delaware/Davis Mountains regions from late Tuesday morning to early Tuesday evening. RFTI values increase to 4-6 over portions of these fire weather zones where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 38 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 36 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 37 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 42 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 58 43 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 33 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 30 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 38 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 61 38 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 36 84 50 / 0 0 0 0