textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Rain chances begin to increase over the eastern portions of our region this afternoon, eventually spanning area-wide Thursday through Friday before tapering off through Saturday afternoon.

- A few storms strong to severe storms are expected for areas south of I-10 tomorrow with large hail, heavy rain, and lightning the main threats.

- Occasionally heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding Thursday into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The passage of a front has pulled cooler air and low level moisture in across the eastern half of the CWA today. A diffuse dryline is setup north-south meandering from near Andrews southward towards Pecos and settles across the Davis Mountain foothills across Pecos County. This will act as the focus for storm development this afternoon across Pecos and Terrell counties without better upper level support. Forecast soundings show long hodographs and current mesoanalysis show plenty of MUCAPE across Terrell and eastern Pecos County favorable for damaging winds and large hail, but storms would need to be developed first and there remains little outside of daytime heating to activate convection. Any activity from this afternoon decays after sunset this evening or moves to the east out of the area.

Temperatures in 50s across SE NM and the Permian Basin and into the 60s further south are expected tonight thanks to the cold front that came through earlier today. Cooler temperatures prevail north of I- 10 on Thursday with most in the 60s and 70s. Cloud cover and rain chances increase over the course of Thursday as an upper level low approaches the region. Low to medium chances (20-40%) spread across the area from east to west by Thursday evening. A few storms may strong to severe south of the I-10 corridor with large hail being the main hazard outside of heavy rain and lightning. Rain chances increase even further by late Thursday night and into Friday morning. Despite the very high rain chances (moving to 80%+), rain amounts will vary from around a quarter to three quarters of an inch with a few locations topping out around an inch. Localized flash flooding will need to be monitored for over the course of Thursday and into Thursday night.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rainy and cooler weather conditions continue heading into Friday. Latest guidance has the trough becoming an open wave across southwest Texas Friday morning indicating a faster progression of the system where the numerous to widespread rain coverage looks to end quicker from what models previously suggest. Ensemble guidance has a high chance (> 80%) of rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25"- 0.75" across southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin from Thursday through Friday night. Highest amounts look to be sporadic across these areas due to the potential of localized convective bands which may deliver rainfall totals up to 1.5" for a few spots. As a result, heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. It is also going to be a very cool day for early May standards across the region. Evaporative cooling from precipitation, dense mid to low cloud cover, and breezy easterly/northeasterly winds will keep high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 70s regionwide.

Friday night through Saturday, the aforementioned upper-level trough lifts northeast of the area. Shortwave impulses on the backside of the trough keeps the low (10-30%) chance of lingering light rain showers across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe, and Davis Mountains through Saturday afternoon. Another cool day for early May is in store as a surface high pressure filters mild air into the region as highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s to low 70s. Temperatures warm up late weekend into early next week as subtle upper-level ridging builds over the region. Another upper- level system approaches the region by Tuesday. As of now, long-range guidance has the system passing to the north which will precipitation away from the area. Guidance is also showing a secondary system entering portions of the West Coast by Wednesday potentially leading to an active weather pattern late next week. Given this is more than a week away, a lot of things can change now until then, so stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Hi-res model soundings suggest a MVFR stratus deck developing up from the southeast overnight, and this could creep into KMAF for a couple of hours Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail the next 48 hours. Winds will be light/variable, but generally back to NE Thursday as another shot of cooler air settlesinto the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 72 50 57 / 10 40 80 90 Carlsbad 60 78 52 59 / 0 20 90 90 Dryden 67 83 61 70 / 30 40 90 70 Fort Stockton 63 85 54 64 / 20 30 90 80 Guadalupe Pass 61 72 49 53 / 0 20 90 70 Hobbs 52 72 47 55 / 0 20 90 90 Marfa 56 82 49 66 / 10 20 80 60 Midland Intl Airport 58 76 52 57 / 0 30 90 90 Odessa 59 77 52 57 / 10 30 90 90 Wink 61 79 52 59 / 10 20 90 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.