textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

- An upper-level storm system brings low to medium (30-60%) rain chances to the area tomorrow and Tuesday. Rainfall totals look light.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1247 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the cut-off low off the coast of Baja del Sur, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft. This feature sent subtle shortwaves up from the southwest overnight, resulting in isolated shower activity, which was much welcomed, even if max QPE was only around 0.10" or so. This activity has diminished, and it looks like another unseasonably warm day is on tap. Despite a fetch of mid/high cloud streaming up from the trough, westerly downslope winds will further increase thicknesses, resulting in afternoon highs slightly warmer than yesterday.

Tonight, models attempt to bring a very weak cold front into the area, but this doesn't look to do much except cool the northern zones a few degrees. This morning's lows were warm, as a blanket of clouds retarded radiational cooling, and tonight looks similar, if not a degree or two cooler due to the cold front.

Monday, the upper trough finally begins meandering northeast onto the coast of Baja del Sur. Thicknesses continue to increase, adding maybe a degree or so over this afternoon's highs, taking Monday's highs to ~ 12-14 F above normal, continuing the spring-like trend. Showers are expected to develop ahead of the trough as it moves northeast, and this activity could cross the Presidio Valley into West Texas before the afternoon is out.

Monday night, this activity will continue developing east and north, to the Western Low Rolling Plains by Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, QPF looks abysmal. By that time, the trough will be making landfall onto the mainland of Mexico. A 30 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and will combine with overcast skies and a moist boundary layer to yield the warmest overnight lows this forecast, averaging a pleasant 20 F or so above normal.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1247 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Rain chances and above normal temperatures greet us at the start of the long term period. An upper-level cutoff low shall open up into a shortwave trough as it shifts northeast from northern Mexico into central Texas throughout the day Tuesday. Again, today's ensembles show an even slower eastward progression compared to yesterday's. Tuesday sees a continuation of isolated to scattered shower/storm activity, with rain chances being low to medium (30-60%) areawide. Best (60%) chances will mainly lie over areas south of the I-10 corridor Tuesday afternoon. The trough begins to depart to our east Tuesday evening, being replaced by an upper ridge by Wednesday morning, signaling an end to our rain chances. Rainfall totals remain light, anywhere between a few hundredths of an inch to about a quarter of an inch in a few spots.

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon reach into the upper 60s within our western counties, while low to mid 70s prevail elsewhere. Tuesday night, a cold front begins to sag into our region. Lows dip into the 40s for most, then top out in the upper 60s to 70s (Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend) Wednesday afternoon. Upper ridging continues Thursday, sending afternoon temperatures into the 70s to low 80s, with the warmest conditions near and along the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys. Another upper trough and associated cold front looks to arrive Friday. Highs drop back into the 60s and 70s Friday afternoon, then mainly into the 60s Saturday. This next system also looks to be accompanied by another shot at some rainfall. We'll have to see how things evolve as we head through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR continues to prevail with light winds and thick high clouds streaming overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 45 78 54 72 / 0 0 10 50 Carlsbad 44 73 50 69 / 0 0 10 40 Dryden 53 81 57 74 / 0 0 10 50 Fort Stockton 51 79 58 73 / 0 0 20 60 Guadalupe Pass 47 65 50 61 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 44 73 50 70 / 0 0 10 40 Marfa 42 73 45 66 / 0 10 30 70 Midland Intl Airport 47 77 55 71 / 0 0 20 50 Odessa 48 76 55 71 / 0 0 20 50 Wink 44 76 52 70 / 0 0 20 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.