textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are probable again through Thursday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions through at least Thursday, especially over the higher terrain.

- A strong cold front will intrude upon the region late Thursday night and Friday, bringing cooler conditions into Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The upper high over the Desert Southwest will continue to build eastward into West Texas Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s for much of the area, with some upper 90s to near 100 degrees in the Pecos River Valley. Temperatures will be warmer tonight, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The warming trend will continue into Thursday as the upper ridge strengthens and builds east into Texas during the day. This will result in the hottest temperatures for the week, with highs Thursday afternoon in the mid and upper 90s, with some readings in the triple digits over portions of the Trans Pecos region.

A strong cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night and early Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures to the region Friday and Saturday. This front looks stronger than the recent one, bringing high gap winds to GDP and dropping highs Friday afternoon ~ 20-25 F from Thursday's highs. Much cooler conditions will persist into Saturday, with highs only in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Temperatures will begin warm late this weekend into early next week, with highs Sunday in the low to mid 80s, climbing into the mid and upper 80s by Monday. Southwest flow aloft develops by early next week, ahead of an upper level trough developing over the western CONUS. Low rain chances will return to the area primarily Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday, as a few weak disturbances move across the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds keep a light, southerly component at most sites through the overnight hours. Southerly winds become breezy (10-15 kts) at FST late this evening, calming down around sunrise. Breezy S/SE winds can again be expected at FST and MAF Wednesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Fire wx concerns will increase through Thursday as temperatures recover. Single-digit RH returns this afternoon, along with ERCs 75- 96th percentile, which will only increase through Thursday. Fuels remain dry/critically dry, as well. The one missing ingredient is substantial 20-ft winds. Under this upper ridge, they just can't develop sufficiently to warrant a warning attm. That said, only elevated to near-critical conditions at best are anticipated over the next few days, and these will be addressed daily. Today, the area of concern will be the Guadalupes/Delawares, where 20-ft winds will be the highest, yielding a fire environment of 7-8 due to these increased 20-ft winds. We'll issue a RFD to cover this. This area will potentially increase Wednesday and Thursday.

A strong cold front arrives late Thursday night and Friday, and this may result in a few hours of critical fire wx conditions along/behind the front before cooler temperatures advect into the region. A RFW may be needed for this, but this is too far out for any products attm. Instead, we'll highlight the front in routine products.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 98 57 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 98 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 96 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 48 91 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 55 96 58 100 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.