textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, but a gradual cooling trend develops especially during the latter half of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances also increase again over portions of southeast New Mexico this week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current 500mb RAP analysis shows the center of an upper level ridge near the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The core of the ridge is progged to reside over the eastern CONUS by Tuesday morning. The eastward shift promotes a gradual cooling trend. Triple digit highs will span only the northeastern Permian Basin and areas near/along the river valleys this afternoon, covering smaller portions of these areas Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, highs in the 90s are expected at most other locations both days. Lows tonight and tomorrow night cool into the 60s within the higher terrain, and 70s across the rest of the region. Most locations stay dry through the period. However, a surface trough extending from eastern New Mexico toward the Big Bend will foster isolated (10-20% chance) showers/storms later this afternoon over SE NM and areas west of the Pecos River. A few cells have already percolated just northwest of Fort Davis as of 2PM CDT. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are again forecast over SE NM and near the Davis' Monday afternoon. Rain chances increase over SE NM Monday evening (up to 30%) as a disturbance rolls along the western edge of the ridge. Any strong storms that develop both days may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the proximity of the trough and the development of the LLJ at night shall lead to breezy winds through much of the period.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Above normal temperatures persist in the Long Term period as our region lies along the western edge of an upper ridge through much of the week. The ridge begins to shift west back toward our area Wednesday night, flattening as it does so. Given ridging remains our primary weather maker, afternoon highs will largely top out in the 90s each afternoon this week. Triple digit heat is forecast over the northeastern Permian Basin and near/along the river valleys Tuesday, becoming restricted to the Rio Grande valley the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, temperatures in and near the higher elevations look to reach the 80s most afternoons. Overnight lows shall range within the 60s to 70s, with 60s eventually becoming more prevalent by the weekend. Sometime over the weekend, long-range models show a cold front dropping down from the Panhandle. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding details, so stay tuned! With any luck, we may finally be able to cool down to more seasonable conditions. Otherwise, rain chances are in the forecast most afternoons, mainly over the western portions of our area. These come courtesy of upslope flow combined with lift from disturbances drifting along the edge of the ridge.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A low-level jet will develop again across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico this evening bringing breezy southeasterly to southerly winds. Occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts may occur especially across MAF, FST, and INK sites through tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 100 73 100 / 20 10 20 30 Dryden 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 73 98 73 98 / 0 10 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 69 90 69 89 / 20 10 20 40 Hobbs 70 97 72 98 / 10 0 10 20 Marfa 63 90 63 90 / 10 10 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 75 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.