textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend, but a gradual cooling trend brings temperatures closer to normal early next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible once again for far western portions of the area today through Friday (10-40% in general). Better rain chances develop across much of the area this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Leftover showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning (as of 1:30 AM CDT) mainly for portions of southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. A few have also developed along the Rio Grande in Presidio County. These storms have been gradually diminishing, but have still managed to produce locally heavy rainfall and some gusty outflow winds. In any case, much of this activity will continue to wane through the morning, with CAMs depicting continued development mainly in Presidio County into portions of Culberson and Eddy counties. For this afternoon and evening, the bulk of shower and storm activity shifts westward again as the upper-level ridge over the southeast CONUS likewise begins to shift farther westward. Rain chances range between 20-40% in general (up to 50%) for locations in the Davis Mountains northwards into Eddy County. Highs remain in the mid-to-upper 90s for most, with temperatures just over 100 degrees mainly in the river valleys. Lows Thursday morning bottom out in the low-to-mid 70s, with mid-to-upper 60s in usual cool spots.

Rain chances shift even farther west Thursday, such that only 10-20% PoPs are maintained for far western portions of the forecast area that afternoon and evening. Temperatures tick down a degree or two, but most locations still remain in the mid-to-upper 90s. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend, but we are still monitoring a cooling trend that will continue into next week. See the Long Term discussion for details on that and better rain chances across much of the area this weekend.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

During the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper-level ridge attempts to shift westward towards our region again. However, shortwave troughs moving across central portions of the CONUS will dampen the ridge. So, while temperatures remain above normal through the weekend (mainly in the mid-to-upper 90s), they gradually cool such that by Sunday highs in the low-to-mid 90s become commonplace. By the end of the weekend, guidance still depicts a front moving into our area, which will usher in highs that are at least closer to seasonal norms for late September (upper 80s and mid 90s). Meanwhile, west Texas and southeast New Mexico will be under southwesterly flow aloft thanks to our relative proximity to the aforementioned troughs moving north of the area. Disturbances in the upper-level flow, coupled with plentiful moisture (PWATs between 1.0-1.5 inches) will encourage more widespread rain chances beginning Saturday (Friday the best rain chances will still mainly be for westernmost portions of the area). Right now, rain chances range between 20-50% for a large portion of the region Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances may also linger into next week as well, but confidence is a bit lower that far out. In any case, it still looks like a larger portion of the area will see some beneficial rain chances soon, along with more seasonable temperatures.

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow is generally on the increase due to leeside troughing on the Front Range in response to the west coast upper trough. Convection is possible for the next few hours, mainly invof KCNM and KHOB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 95 71 95 70 / 20 10 10 0 Dryden 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 71 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 65 84 66 / 30 20 10 10 Hobbs 94 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 89 61 88 60 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 97 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.