textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- A few severe storms will be possible across portions of southeast New Mexico and across the Lower Trans Pecos. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two may be seen with the most organized storms. - Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A line of storms stretching from the northern Permian Basin south into Terrell County continues to slowly move to the east bringing 1- 2" of rain with locally higher amounts to many locations. As this activity clears out, daytime heating over southeast New Mexico, the Davis Mountains, and areas generally south of I-10 may see new isolated storms develop. A few may become strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two being the main threats out of the most organized storms. Afternoon activity will dissipate or move out of the area by after sunset this evening. Temperatures settle below normal into the 50s and 60s tonight. With the aforementioned upper level disturbance moving off to the northeast, temperatures warm up into the 80s for most with 90s down along the Rio Grande. Isolated storms once again develop over the Davis Mountains and into southeast New Mexico. However, less upper level support will limit just how intense and how long lasting most of this activity will be. Bouts of heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds will accompany some of this convection. Wednesday night temperatures fall just below normal in the 50s and 60s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to build into the region on Thursday, yielding afternoon highs in the 80s for most (90s near/along the Rio Grande). By Friday, shortwave impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft coupled with increased moisture and dryline forcing brings low to medium (generally 20-50%) chances of isolated to scattered showers/storms across much of the area. Guidance shows a similar pattern going into the weekend and early next week, keeping chances (10-40%) of rain in the forecast. It is important to note that there is uncertainty in timing, amounts, and severity of activity at the moment. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends over the next several days and adjust the forecast accordingly. Otherwise, afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s can continue to be expected.

Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR is expected to remain prevalent through the period. Isolated TSRA just south of KCNM at 2330Z should move out of the vicinity shortly. A few SHRA/TSRA from Eddy County down to the Davis Mountains may progress east for the next 2-3 hours before a weakening trend is anticipated after sunset. Confidence was low enough to keep mention out of KPEQ and KINK for now but will amend if necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 82 62 86 / 30 10 0 10 Carlsbad 57 84 60 87 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 65 87 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 86 63 89 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 78 60 80 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 54 82 57 85 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 50 84 52 88 / 0 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 59 82 62 85 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 59 82 62 86 / 10 0 10 0 Wink 58 84 62 87 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.