textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may trigger rapid water- level rises in local creeks, rivers, and normally dry arroyos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Bottom-Line Up Front (BLUF): The heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat will persist across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. See additional details below.

Current satellite and radar imagery shows showers and a couple of storms mainly along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. A few showers have developed across the northeastern Permian Basin which will continue through the evening. Observations also depict a stationary boundary north of the Big Bend region. The upper low is currently positioned over south Texas supplying additional ascent for shower/storm development. Tonight, most areas will remain dry as the atmosphere stabilizes. A similar setup is in store for tomorrow as the highest chances (50-70%) for rain will be over the Lower Trans Pecos, higher terrain, and southern Permian Basin. This is due to the upper low remaining in south Texas. Isolated to scattered showers are expected elsewhere in the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will still be a considerable threat given recent soil moisture and very high Precipitable Water values (PWATs) nearing the 99th percentile for areas south of I-10. Another threat to consider is the heavy rainfall along the Rio Grande potentially causing flooding issues where many summer vacationers will be camping near flood prone areas. With waterways like Independence Creek (northeastern Terrell County) already flooding today, tomorrow's rainfall will only heighten the river flood threat across the Lower Trans Pecos. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and remain weather aware! Other than the heavy rainfall, high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s to 80s areawide both days.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The tail end of the week continues to feature scattered to widespread showers/storms with below average temperatures, while the weekend into early next week dries out and shower/storms again become mainly confined to western higher terrain. Highs Thursday and Friday stay in the 70s and 80s F even down into the Rio Grande, since heavy rain and cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Humid, upslope southeast winds keep PWATs in the 1.25" to 1.70" range and up to the 1.80" to 2" range in spots. This will again remain above the 90th percentile for this time of year, indicative of continued efficient heavy precipitation formation where showers/storms occur. As an upper-level low develops farther northwest Thursday and Friday, higher rain chances are expected north of I-10 than previous days, with 3hr PoPs of 45% to 60% earlier during the day and 25% to 45% PoPs lingering later in the day through overnight. This does not mean regions that have seen flooding rains such as northern Terrell County will be out of the clear, as high-res CAMs continue to show heavy showers/storms developing over those regions through the end of the week. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect south of I-10 from today through Thursday and may have to be extended through Friday. NBM totals from Thursday through Saturday mornings display 1.5" to 2" of rainfall from Terrell County and Rio Grand Basin through the southeast Permian Basin, with amounts still near 1" for the central Permian Basin, including Midland-Odessa. A medium (45% to 60%) chance of 1" to 1.50" of rainfall in ensembles from Terrell County into the Rio Grande basin, Stockton Plateau, and up to 1.00" for Marfa Plateau, as well as central Permian Basin, portends more flash flooding concerns. Higher end totals of 8" to 12" continue to be indicated in ensembles as well, so significant flash flooding remains a risk through the end of the week for the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Hikers and campers will want to avoid low lying regions such as creeks and arroyos. Drivers will also want to exercise caution on roads. Remember if you encounter flooded roadways, turn around, don't drown!

Mid-level ridging building over the Rockies and back south into the Southern Great Plains with accompanying large scale sinking motion allows highs to rise back into the mid 80s to lower 90s F this weekend. Rain chances remain high (50% to 70%) over western higher terrain early weekend as lift and moisture convergence associated with the upper-level low slowly retreats to westernmost TX. A risk of flash flooding will therefore remain across western parts of the area, although exact amounts are still uncertain at this time. Rain chances slowly decrease late weekend into early next week as the upper low dissipates and the familiar 10% to 30% afternoon/evening shower/storm diurnally-driven convection cycle re-stablishes. However, heavier showers/storms may still pose flash flooding concerns. Highs rise back into the upper 80s to upper 90s F next week, with lows that were largely settling in the upper 50s to upper 60s F this week settling back into the mid 60s to mid 70s F.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except for KFST, which could see cigs as low as IFR for a few hours Wednesday morning. Otherwise, best chances for convection continue to be West Texas terminals Wednesday, in generally light easterly flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 67 82 65 80 / 40 50 50 70 Carlsbad 68 87 66 86 / 10 20 10 30 Dryden 67 84 66 84 / 60 90 70 90 Fort Stockton 65 81 64 82 / 10 60 30 80 Guadalupe Pass 63 80 62 79 / 10 20 10 30 Hobbs 65 84 63 81 / 10 20 20 40 Marfa 56 79 56 78 / 10 50 30 90 Midland Intl Airport 66 81 65 79 / 10 50 40 70 Odessa 66 81 65 79 / 20 50 40 70 Wink 67 83 66 82 / 20 40 30 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell- Upton-Ward.

NM...None.