textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 651 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 - Numerous to widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will spread over much of the area through this afternoon before tapering off this evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding over portions of the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend before highs rebound closer to normal by next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave trough moving over the vicinity of northern Mexico and the southern Arizona/New Mexico border early this morning. Deep layer moisture continues to spread over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas within the southwesterly flow aloft in advance of this system with precipitable water values between 0.9 and 1.2 inches over our CWA per SPC mesoscale analysis. A surface cold front will remain oriented along the far western fringes of the forecast area through the day. Short range model solutions and high resolution CAMs remain consistent with bringing numerous to widespread coverage of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms across much of our forecast area through the morning hours as the shortwave trough approaches from the west. The abundant atmospheric moisture will be prime for heavy rain, with increasing probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches generally along and east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most areas along and east of the mountains today, including the Guadalupe/Davis/Delaware Mountains, the southeast New Mexico Plains, the Trans Pecos region, and much of the Permian Basin. We did opt to add Central Brewster County into the watch given potential for rounds of heavy rainfall/convection over portions of that zone today. Flooding of urban, poor drainage, low water crossings, creeks/streams, and other low lying areas may occur if heavy rains fall within a short period of time. The potential for heavy rainfall should shift east of our region by late this afternoon with the passing shortwave trough, but a few showers and thunderstorms could linger into this evening before rain chances continue to diminish tonight. Temperatures will be well below normal behind the cold front today and along with the high rain chances. Readings are forecast to range in the 50s and 60s over much of the region, except 70s to low 80s along the Presidio Valley and portions of the Big Bend. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the 40s over much of the region, except upper 30s in the higher terrain areas and lower to mid 50s along the Rio Grande.

Drier conditions are anticipated on Saturday underneath a west- northwest flow pattern aloft. Surface high pressure will gradually shift to our east, but temperatures remain below normal with highs mostly in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Weak ridging embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail Sunday into Monday, allowing for a warming trend both days. Highs in the 70s on Sunday should trend upward into the 80s over much of our region by Monday (a few locations may reach into the low to mid 90s along the Rio Grande Monday afternoon). The next upper level trough/low is forecast to deepen over California and the Desert Southwest Monday night into Tuesday with the trough/low potentially pinching over the Desert Southwest and Baja region during the middle to latter part of the week. Shortwave impulses within southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature along with a potential front may support at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms returning back into the forecast by Thursday. Temperatures otherwise remain near to slightly below normal through the middle to latter part of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings will be prevalent over area terminals through early-mid afternoon. Numerous to widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to move east over the region this morning, some with heavy rainfall and reduced visibility to IFR or lower thresholds. Ceilings should gradually scatter after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 57 44 70 48 / 90 10 0 0 Carlsbad 59 46 65 46 / 90 30 10 0 Dryden 70 50 67 51 / 90 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 45 67 48 / 100 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 41 57 47 / 80 30 10 0 Hobbs 56 40 66 44 / 90 20 0 0 Marfa 65 39 64 41 / 80 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 44 67 49 / 100 10 0 0 Odessa 57 44 67 50 / 100 10 0 0 Wink 60 44 66 48 / 90 20 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon for Andrews- Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.