textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40 percent chance) are possible through Friday evening, mainly in West Texas west of the Pecos.

- Above normal temperatures return Saturday, and continue through next week. Highs Tuesday should average more than 10 F above normal, making it feel more like early July than mid May.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis show an upper- level low east of Baja California with subtle ridging over the region. At the surface, the cold front that moved through the region last night and earlier this morning has stalled along the western Sierra Madre Mountains. As a result, cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to 70s are in store this afternoon for most locations. A low (10- 20%) chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms exist this afternoon and early evening across the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, and Stockton Plateau. Storms are not expected to be severe. Tonight, the upper-level moves slightly further to the east. Return flow also brings Gulf moisture into the area allowing for cloud cover. Overnight lows will be milder than previous nights, ranging from the upper 40s to low 60s as cloud cover limits cooling. A light rain shower or two may also occur across portions of far west Texas overnight.

Friday, the aforementioned upper-level low makes its way into portions of southwest Texas. Guidance has a stationary boundary positioned near the TX/Mexico border creating more favorable conditions for isolated to scattered (20-40%) showers and storms to develop during the afternoon and evening for areas along and south of Interstate 10. These showers and storms may shift east/northeastward toward portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin. Highs are expected to be warmer in the upper 70s to low 90s regionwide. Friday night, showers and storms come to an end as the upper-level moves east of the region. Subtle upper- level ridging, along with a developing surface low lee of the Rockies brings much warmer temperatures to kick off the weekend.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The long-term forecast will generally be warm and dry, with a roller coaster of temperatures.

Saturday, the upper trough will be on its way out of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, leaving the area under meridional flow aloft. This will quickly transition to west-northwest as upper-level ridging builds in. Increasing thicknesses under mostly sunny skies will add ~ 7-8 F onto Friday's highs.

Unfortunately, yet another late-spring cold front is forecast to intrude upon the area Sunday, w/the latest NAM run pegging fropa at KMAF late morning. This will shave 3-4 F off highs, mainly in the north, and bring brief BLDU to the area, as well as a slight chance of convection on the southeast fringes of the CWA during the afternoon/evening. High gap winds look likely for a few hours, mainly Sunday evening.

Monday, although winds veer to east, CAA continues, with highs bottoming out right around normal, which would be in the 80s most areas for this time of year.

Tuesday, w/the resumption of modest retrun flow, thicknesses quickly recover and highs soar to over 10 F above climatology on average, yeilding perhaps the warmest day this forecast, making it feel more like early July than mid May. W/the ridge dominating the southern CONUS, highs Wednesday and Thursday might be a degree or so cooler. Convective chances begin increasing near the end of the extended as long-range models bring disturbances through zonal flow aloft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

CIGs have mainly lifted above 3000ft at most terminals besides FST and will prevail through the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to remain relatively light and veer easterly/southeasterly throughout today. MVFR CIGs return overnight at most terminals (brief IFR CIGs may occur). Opted to not include MVFR CIGs for CNM due to low confidence, however, this may be needed for later packages.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 55 84 59 92 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 52 86 56 95 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 59 88 61 90 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 56 87 58 93 / 0 30 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 52 78 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 50 84 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 80 47 88 / 10 30 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 56 82 59 92 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 56 82 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 54 84 57 94 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.