textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Good shower and thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue through at least Friday. We will be keeping a close eye on the flash flood potential during this time.

- Cloud cover and rain chances keep temperatures below normal through Saturday.

- Warmer and drier conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Current radar this morning shows the expected MCS moving out of southeastern New Mexico and into the western Permian Basin. The outflow boundary is beginning to outrun the convective complex which may inhibit additional development and cause the demise of this system. In the northeast, convection is developing near Snyder along an old outflow boundary that has moved in and become stationary. Hi- res models show these two areas of precipitation merging later this morning over the northern Permian Basin and then diminishing.

Beyond that models diverge on the evolving weather pattern in the short term. Weak heights aloft and abundant low level moisture should provide enough instability for continuing rain chances. The problem is that there is no strong upper level feature, or well defined low level feature, to focus convective development. Storms will form in favored higher elevations, along weak/transient boundaries, or from simple differential afternoon heating. Everyone has a chance to see some rainfall but due to the scattered nature of the storms, there will be some who get no precip at all. Highs will be quite pleasant for this time of year only reaching the 80s everywhere except the Rio Grande valley which will get into the 90s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Modest rain chances continue into the extended as an upper shear axis remains stationary from western Oklahoma to southeastern New Mexico and into Mexico. The rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures below normal through the end of the week as highs remain in the 80s.

Low pressure develops on the southern end of this axis over Mexico and moves northeast into Texas on Saturday, then leaving the region on Sunday. Rain chances come to an end with the exit of the low as a ridge builds in and provides increasing stability. Highs rise back up to near normal next week as highs get back into the 90s.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are diminishing this morning with some lingering the next few hours near MAF/FST. More activity will develop later today with CNM/HOB most likely to see something near 00Z. Cannot rule out SHRA/TS at other locations but uncertainty in location and timing is very high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 66 85 66 / 60 40 30 50 Carlsbad 83 63 86 65 / 50 50 40 20 Dryden 89 69 88 68 / 40 30 20 60 Fort Stockton 86 65 87 66 / 70 30 60 50 Guadalupe Pass 77 61 79 64 / 60 60 40 30 Hobbs 80 61 83 62 / 50 40 30 30 Marfa 82 55 83 55 / 70 30 70 70 Midland Intl Airport 82 65 84 66 / 50 30 40 50 Odessa 82 65 84 66 / 50 30 40 50 Wink 84 65 85 66 / 50 30 40 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for Andrews- Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT this morning for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.