textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A cold front pushes into our area this evening/overnight, ushering in Fall-like temperatures and breezy winds. High gap winds are expected at Guadalupe Pass tonight through Friday morning.

- Low-to-medium rain chances linger for mainly the Trans-Pecos, portions of the Permian Basin, and in/around the higher terrain tonight behind the front and through the weekend (generally 30-50%, up to 70% Friday). By next week, low rain chances (10-30%) are maintained for the higher terrain.

- Despite a gradual warming trend starting this weekend, temperatures stay near/below normal through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A shortwave embedded within an upper level trough is currently lifting northeastward across the Plains. The associated cold front lies just east of our region, accompanied by a line of showers and storms spanning northeast to southwest across Texas. This line is progged to produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as it marches across the state. Meanwhile, rain chances largely come to an end for our region behind the front this afternoon. Temperatures are mostly forecast to top out in the 80s this afternoon (70s in/near the higher terrain and SE NM). This evening, a surface high over the Plains sends a second cold front down from the Panhandle, bringing breezy to strong northerly winds. The strongest winds are expected within the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains this evening into tomorrow morning. Sustained winds could range from 40-50mph, with gusts up to 60mph, prompting a High Wind Warning. Winds shall taper down through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Aside from winds, lift associated with the front will combine with moisture to bring about increased rain chances. This evening, CAMs show a potential for isolated showers/storms developing over SE NM first, then isolated to scattered activity over the western Permian Basin and SE NM down toward the Davis's. Rain chances tonight range from 10-40%, with the best odds remaining in the vicinity of the higher terrain. Rain chances increase to 20-70% tomorrow. The best (40-70%) odds will favor SE NM, the higher terrain, and adjacent areas. Better rain chances begin to shift east and southeastward tomorrow night, favoring the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Given saturated soils from previous rainfall in some of these locations, the potential for flash flooding will be something to monitor in the event of heavy rainfall. Otherwise, temperatures tomorrow are forecast to reach the upper 60s (SE NM and the higher terrain), 70s almost everywhere else, and 80s along the Rio Grande. With the exception of 60s in our southernmost counties, lows tomorrow night cool into the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Fall-like temperatures persist through the weekend as winds remain northeasterly behind Thursday night/early Friday morning's front. Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s can be expected for most locations Saturday, increasing to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Daily rain chances also persist this weekend, mainly in the Trans-Pecos, the eastern and southern half of the Permian Basin, and in/around the higher terrain (chances will be generally in the 20-50% range). Meanwhile, ridging starts to redevelop over western portions of the CONUS, and winds at the surface gradually become southeasterly again by early next week. Though the ridge will stay west of us, these features nevertheless allow temperatures to continue to increase throughout the Long Term period. By the middle part of the week, highs in the low-to-mid 80s will have become more commonplace across the area. For reference, these highs would be near/a couple of degrees above normal by early October standards. Upslope flow and disturbances in the flow aloft will continue to allow for low (10- 30%) rain chances, mainly in and around the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos River through next week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period. Winds will be breezy out of the north and northwest, becoming northeasterly early tomorrow morning. Gusts may occasionally reach up to 30 kts at most terminals this afternoon into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and an overall increase in cloud coverage may drop ceilings to MVFR at most sites tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 74 58 75 / 0 20 40 30 Carlsbad 59 69 56 74 / 40 60 10 10 Dryden 65 81 62 76 / 0 20 50 50 Fort Stockton 60 75 57 72 / 10 50 40 50 Guadalupe Pass 53 61 51 65 / 30 50 20 10 Hobbs 58 68 54 73 / 40 30 10 10 Marfa 52 70 50 70 / 10 30 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 63 74 59 75 / 10 20 30 30 Odessa 63 73 59 75 / 10 30 30 30 Wink 61 75 58 76 / 20 40 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.