textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak on Thursday, before gradually decreasing into next week. Isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level ridge overspreading much of the eastern CONUS, with our region residing along its western periphery. Monsoonal moisture is also evident along the edge of the ridge, streaming over the western fringes of our region. This allowed for some isolated to scattered showers/ storms to develop over the higher terrain and SE NM earlier in the evening. At present, showers linger over portions of SE NM, and should continue to diminish as we head through the night. Additional isolated to scattered (10-30%) showers/storms are expected this afternoon and Thursday afternoon across areas west of the Pecos River and portions of SE NM. The best rain chances shall tend to favor the Davis Mountains and westernmost reaches of our region both afternoons and evenings. Should any of these storms become strong, the primary hazards to look out for will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist everywhere else.

Temperatures both afternoons will remain above normal. Highs this afternoon are progged to reach the 80-90 degree range within the higher elevations, mid to upper 90s for almost everyone else. Low 100s are expected for those near and along the river valleys and the NE Permian Basin. Thursday, temperatures tick up a few degrees over Wednesday in response to upper ridging building slightly westward. Highs at or beyond the century mark look to expand to encompass more portions of the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, SE NM, and the Rio Grande valley. Some areas along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend are forecast to reach up to 108 degrees. Despite this, Heat Advisory criteria will be avoided.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Thursday night, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the Carolinas, and extending down through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into Chihuahua. Remnants of T.D. Edouard are forecast to persist over the upper Texas coast, too far east to influence conditions here in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A large trough is forecast to reside over the PacNW, extending down the west coast and advecting tropical moisture from T.S. Marie into the region on southwest flow aloft. NAEFS ensembles increase PWATs over the northwest CWA to 2-3 std devs above normal, and this will combine with easterly upslope flow to keep a chance of convection in play over the higher terrain, especially Thursday night through Friday night. Chances diminish going into the weekend, as the ridge is forecast to develop back west, ending up over Oklahoma/Arkansas by the end of the forecast period.

However, despite the ridge building back west, it will be weak, w/thicknesses forecast to decrease into next week. As a result, Friday looks to be the warmest day of the extended forecast, w/highs averaging 10-12 F above normal. Temperatures should then "cool" into next week, amounting to only 8-10 F above climatology by Monday/Tuesday. The warmth persists, but the strengthening west coast trough hints at finally breaking down the ridge over the next few weeks.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Generally south to southeasterly winds of around 10 kts or less continue this TAF period. Isolated TSRA are possible this afternoon and evening mainly west of the Pecos River. However, opted to leave out of TAFs for now due to limited convective coverage and low confidence in terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 102 74 100 / 10 10 20 10 Dryden 77 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 91 70 90 / 10 10 30 10 Hobbs 73 100 73 99 / 10 0 10 0 Marfa 65 92 64 91 / 10 20 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.