textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Light to moderate showers develop today through Sunday. The heaviest showers look to impact locations mainly along and south of I-20. Localized ponding of water may occur in urban/poor drainage areas.

- Cool temperatures (50s to 60s F highs) expected during the weekend before temperatures warm back up by Tuesday. Dry weather is expected for much of the upcoming work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Weak showers are beginning to spread across the western half of the CWA area of an approaching upper level low. As that low moves across northern Mexico and into West Texas, shower coverage will increase from west to east with light to moderate rain possible areawide and continuing on and off through tonight and into Sunday. The track of the upper low will influence where the heaviest rain looks to fall and short range guidance continues to show the highest amounts, on the order of an inch, occurring along and south of I-10. North of I- 10 will see less rain between a half inch to an inch with even lower amounts seen north of the I-20 corridor. Localized flash flooding due to heavy rain cannot be ruled out as soils once again saturate in combination with an occasional thunderstorm, particularly in urban areas or normally dry arroyos. Severe storms are not expected, but occasional lightning and gusty winds may be seen in the strongest storms.

Cloud cover and rain with the nearby upper low will keep temperatures well below normal both this and Sunday afternoon as highs struggle to reach 60F. Overnight lows fall into the 40s to low 50s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Lingering showers stick around portions of the Big Bend extending into the Permian Basin Sunday night through Monday morning. This is thanks to the upper low stalling and becoming much broader near the region. Locations south of I-20 will still have the greatest chance (30-60%) of seeing rain during this timeframe. These showers are expected to remain light to moderate where the flash flooding threat remains low. Ponding of water in low-lying, urban, and poor drainage areas may occur due to any previous rainfall and already saturated soils/surfaces. By Monday, much of this activity looks to diminish and propagate eastward as the upper-level jet strengthens across portions of South TX. Overcast skies and light lingering showers will create another dreary weather day across much of the region. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to 60s for most locations.

The weather pattern becomes more benign beginning on Tuesday lasting through the rest of the work week. Upper-level ridging returns, promoting warmer and dry conditions. As a result, near normal highs for this time of year are forecast ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s areawide. Lows look to remain above normal (40s to low 50s) which will prolong the first frost date for many areas in the meantime. Looking further into the extended, guidance has another upper-level disturbance approaching the region by next weekend, favoring another potential setup for rain/storms. There is quite a bit of disagreement amongst models of the track, positioning, and strength of the system. Therefore, details will become more clearer in the coming days.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR prevails through the overnight hours before ceilings lower to MVFR to IFR thresholds over all terminals between 13-17Z Saturday as SHRA increases in coverage. Vis may be reduced to MVFR or locally lower thresholds within heavier SHRA Saturday. Light E/NE winds otherwise remain prevalent for the most part through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 57 48 59 51 / 60 20 50 50 Carlsbad 55 46 58 50 / 80 10 20 20 Dryden 61 53 59 54 / 50 90 90 80 Fort Stockton 58 50 57 52 / 90 80 70 60 Guadalupe Pass 48 44 51 46 / 80 10 30 30 Hobbs 54 44 59 48 / 70 10 0 30 Marfa 54 40 54 42 / 80 90 70 30 Midland Intl Airport 56 48 58 51 / 80 20 80 40 Odessa 56 48 57 51 / 80 20 80 50 Wink 58 48 59 50 / 90 20 60 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.