textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Today will be the last day with highs in the 90s. Temperatures are cooler the rest of the week only reaching the 80s. - Rain chances increase from the Guadalupe to the Davis mountains this afternoon and spread east overnight. There will be a good chance for rainfall over much of the area the remainder of the week, with localized flash flooding the main threat.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Everything is quiet on satellite and radar this morning. This changes later this afternoon as a negatively tilted trough over the Baja of Mexico moves closer to New Mexico and Texas. A disturbance ahead of the deeper trough moves across our CWA this evening and tonight causing showers and thunderstorms to develop in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River, then move east to the adjacent plains overnight. Models are in good agreement that an MCS develops over southeastern New Mexico but diverge on how this system evolves with some moving it southeast into Texas while others leave it nearly stationary. Climatology would favor this system moving southeast, especially with a low level jet feeding it moisture from the southeast, so PoPs shift east into Wednesday. Highs today will be near normal then clouds and rainfall bring highs down into the 80s on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The upper pattern late in the week can best be described as chaotic. There isn't a strong upper system (low or high) in place to dominate the weather pattern. This time of year though, lower heights aloft, low level gulf moisture, and daytime heating usually favors scattered afternoon/evening convection. The NBM PoPs may be a bit high given that it is an ensemble forecast and has difficulty in scattered convective events where individual storms show in many different areas over various model runs. Therefore despite the high PoPs over several days, there are likely to be times when convection diminishes or locations get missed due to the scattered nature of the individual storms. Still, most locations should see at least a quarter of an inch by the end of the week and a few isolated locations could see much more. WPC QPF is enough to consider the issuance of a flood watch but will not issue at this time due to low confidence in amounts and timing. Temperatures during the rain event this week will be below normal with highs generally in the 80s.

The upper pattern finally gets a strong feature Saturday when a low develops over northern Mexico and moves northeast into West Texas on Sunday. Subsidence on the back of the departing low finally decreases rain chances and pushes temperatures back up to near normal for early next week as highs get back into the 90s.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Current satellite shows MVFR CIGs developing southeast of MAF. These CIGs could reach MAF briefly though not in the current TAFs so local flyers should be aware. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. TS will develop after 18Z, first affecting CNM near 00Z and other TAF sites 03-06Z and continuing to 09-12Z. These TAFs have TS in PROB30 but will likely be upgraded to TEMPO once confidence in timing is higher.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 93 68 86 66 / 0 40 70 60 Carlsbad 94 64 85 63 / 30 70 60 70 Dryden 94 71 90 69 / 0 10 50 40 Fort Stockton 93 67 87 65 / 20 30 70 50 Guadalupe Pass 85 63 78 62 / 50 60 70 60 Hobbs 91 61 82 60 / 10 80 90 70 Marfa 90 56 83 55 / 60 30 60 60 Midland Intl Airport 91 67 84 65 / 0 50 70 60 Odessa 91 67 84 65 / 0 50 70 60 Wink 93 66 85 64 / 10 60 70 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.