textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Low (30% to 40%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening over the Stockton Plateau and over the northern Permian Basin Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions with up and down temperatures expected from the latter part of this weekend through the rest of the extended.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts a few clouds streaming southwest to northeast. Southwest flow aloft persists at the base of an upper storm system developing from the Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. A cold front develops south from the CO Front Range and TX Panhandle and impinges on a dryline situated over central parts of the forecast area today. Lift, moisture, and instability accompanying these surface features allows a low (<30%) chance of showers/storms to develop over Stockton Plateau into southeast Permian Basin this evening. Before then, highs are forecast to rise into the mid to upper 80s F, upper 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F along Rio Grande amidst mostly sunny skies. Westerly winds become gusty with daytime heating and increased westerly flow at base of the upper storm system bypassing the area over the northern CONUS this afternoon/evening. Tonight, lows fall into mid to upper 50s F higher elevations into most of SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, mid to upper 60s F most of Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande basins, and upper 40s to lower 50s F highest elevations of westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains. Early to mid morning Saturday, another low to medium (25% to 45%) chance of showers/storms is in the forecast and indicated in both forecast grids and models over the Permian Basin, as the main lift and moisture region develops into and then clears the area. Increased magnitude and duration of rain chances due to stronger mid-level forcing ahead of storm system than earlier indicated. No severe weather is expected, with main impacts being brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Rainfall is not anticipated to be widespread, but regions that do see showers/storms have a low probability of picking up more than a few tenths of an inch rainfall due to the low PoP-low QPF setup in place in the dry air (40s F dew point temperatures west of dryline, lower to mid 50s F dew point temperatures east of dryline).

Highs Saturday will be a few degrees cooler behind the cold front, mid 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher elevations and most of Lea County, upper 80s to lower 90s F Rio Grande basins into eastern Stockton Plateau, mid to upper 90s F from Big Bend into Terrell County. Northwest winds shift to northerly, with light north winds allowing lows to fall into lower to mid 40s F in usual cooler spots, lower to mid 50s F north of Rio Grande basins and northeast of southeast Permian Basin, and upper 50s to lower 60s F Rio Grande basins. Cooler temperatures will be short-lived past this weekend as a synoptic roller-coaster ride in temperatures keeps conditions either unseasonably warm or cool depending on locations of fronts and the upper air pattern. More details on this in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Behind a cold front Saturday night, temperatures Sunday will actually feel Fall-like! Much of the area will top out in the mid-to- upper 70s and low 80s (near normal), with the highest temperatures along the Rio Grande. Going forth into the next week, our region will be caught in a kind of tug of war between upper-level ridging to the south and additional passing shortwave troughs to the north. The net result is a roller-coaster ride of temperatures for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Ridging attempts to build back in from the south Monday. This, along with breezy southwesterly winds, will cause temperatures to shoot back into the upper 80s and low 90s (about 10-15 degrees above normal). Nevertheless, a second upper-level trough to the north of our area sends yet another cold front this direction Monday night. As a result, Tuesday's temperatures end up similar to Sunday's. Weak ridging builds again Wednesday and winds once again turn southerly, yielding another day of temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal (mid-to-upper 80s for most). Late in the week, it appears a third trough will send a cold front down and once again usher in more Fall-like temperatures. Despite all of this, rain chances remain near-zero through the Long Term, as it does not currently appear we will effectively recover the moisture displaced to the east by this weekend's trough and cold front.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Isolated showers and storms have been ongoing late this afternoon east and southeast of all terminals. These are expected to remain east and southeast, however, an outflow boundary may create brief southeasterly gusty winds and shower at FST within the next hour. Confidence is very low in this occurring which is why this was not included in the 00Z TAF. Otherwise, breezy sustained (11-18 kts) westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail until after sunset. An additional round of showers and storms is anticipated overnight tonight. Therefore, TS and -TSRA PROB30s have been implemented at most terminals during this timeframe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 85 52 79 / 40 30 0 0 Carlsbad 58 83 50 78 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 65 94 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 86 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 72 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 81 47 75 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 54 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 85 53 79 / 30 20 0 0 Odessa 64 83 53 78 / 30 10 0 0 Wink 60 85 50 79 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.