textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through next week. Temperatures will gradually increase through Sunday, then decrease slightly through Wednesday. - There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the vicinity of the Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions are expected this weekend, before chances (~ 10-40%) increase next week, especially Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

WV imagery this morning shows a broad, upper ridge spanning the western 2/3rds of the CONUS, which would normally mean warmer temperatures except for the fact that an upper trough is developing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, putting a crimp in thicknesses/temperatures and yielding perhaps the coolest day this forecast as highs average only around 5 F above climatology. Despite this, highs will still climb into the 80s most locations. Rain chances will remain nominal, w/CAMs suggesting only isolated convection this afternoon over the vicinity of the Marfa Plateau.

Tonight, the LLJ remains weak, and under mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling will likewise bestow the coolest minimums this forecast. Even so, they'll still be around 10 F above normal, putting most locations in the 60s.

Friday, a couple of upper troughs off the west coast will dig south- southeast, nudging the upper trough to the east and increasing return flow slightly. While today should be the coolest day this forecast, Friday will be only a degree or so warmer, if that. Aside from the aforementioned convection this afternoon, the short term will be dry.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Friday night and Saturday, a trough off the west coast will dig south, absorbing the remnants of Hurricane Rachel and pushing a ridge through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Saturday. This will result in a gradual warming trend through the weekend as leeside troughing on the Front Range increases return flow locally. Temperatures for this forecast will peak Sunday, when highs top out ~ 10-15 F above normal, putting most areas in the 90s. Meanwhile, a secondary, stronger trough will be digging down the west coast, increasing progressive southwest flow aloft over the area on the backside of the exiting ridge. The trough is forecast to make landfall in SoCal Monday night, and move east into the Rockies by Wednesday afternoon. The next effect of this will be decreasing thicknesses after Sunday, with highs rounding out the extended Wednesday afternoon at a mere 5-10 F above normal, putting most parts back in the 80s. Sometime during the first part of next week, the secondary trough is forecast to absorb the remnants of T.S. Simon, and move a slug of tropical moisture through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Current model runs suggest this will occur Tuesday evening or so. GFS forecast soundings increase PWATs at KMAF to 1.58" by 06Z Wednesday, while ECMWF soundings increase to 1.78" by 00Z Wednesday. Climatology puts the 100th percentile at 12Z Wednesday at 1.12", so a decent rainfall event could be shaping up, and bears watching. QPF could be better, but this will increase if it pans out. However, it's always a good bet that this will dry out in a model run or two. Finally, should the LREF pan out w/the track/timing of the trough, high winds will be possible in the Guadalupes/Delawares Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a few cu and a high cloud or two.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 84 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 87 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 59 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 82 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 78 56 79 56 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 88 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.