textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region again near a stalled front today. A few storms will once again be capable of producing localized severe downburst winds, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- The heavy rainfall and flash flood threat increases across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Van Horn Corridor tonight through Wednesday night as tropical moisture surges north into these locations. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential may persist over these locations through the latter part of the week.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels today through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The upper-level ridge stretching over southeast New Mexico and west Texas early this morning is forecast to shift east of our region today and tonight as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward over the Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountains. A southerly to southwesterly mid to upper level flow pattern will take shape over our forecast area between these features. The weak cold front that has pushed into our forecast area is expected to become stationary along the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and down into the Trans Pecos region this afternoon and evening. A moist airmass will remain entrenched over our CWA today with precipitable water values between 1 and 1.5 inches. Weak impulses embedded within the S/SW will provide sufficient lift for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, with the best coverage (30-50%) over locations along and north of I-10 in the vicinity and to the north of the surface boundary. Similar to yesterday, a few storms that develop will be capable of producing localized strong to severe downburst winds and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler today with highs in the mid to upper 80s over much of our region, except readings in the lower 90s along the Trans Pecos and in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande.

Short range models remain in good agreement with bringing a slug of tropical moisture northward from Mexico into far west Texas and much of New Mexico tonight through Wednesday night within the persistent southerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Precipitable water values subsequently increase to 1.5 to 1.75 inches over western and northwestern portions of our forecast area from the Van Horn Corridor to the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains of Eddy and central/northern Lea counties during this time frame. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous to widespread in coverage (60-90% chance) tonight through Wednesday night over these zones and heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" with locally higher amounts over 3-4" will be possible. The synoptic pattern and deep moisture will favor an increased flash flood threat over these zones and a Flood Watch will remain in effect Tuesday night-Wednesday night. Other isolated to scattered (20-40% chance of) showers and thunderstorms will develop over much of the rest of the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night, though chances will be lowest from eastern portions of the Big Bend into the southern and eastern Basin in closer proximity to the upper ridge. A few storms outside of the broader Flood Watch area will still be capable of producing localized pockets of heavy rainfall and more localized flood threat. Temperature-wise, look for cooler overnight lows in the 60s across much of the region, with a few readings in the upper 50s over higher elevation areas with lower 70s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin tonight and Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will trend closer to normal with readings mostly in the 80s, with a few mid to upper 70s in the higher terrain and 90s along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The upper-level ridge will remain positioned from southeast Texas to the ArkLaTex and Missouri Valley Thursday and Friday while another shortwave trough lifts from the Baja region/Desert Southwest to the Rocky Mountains. A fetch of deep moisture will continue to stream from Mexico into southwest and west Texas and southeast New Mexico in the continued southwesterly flow aloft between these features. A very good (60-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue from the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, the Van Horn Corridor and into most of the southeast New Mexico Plains in this pattern. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a hazard of concern over these locations through the latter part of the week and the Flood Watch may need to be extended with later forecast issuances. Low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue from the Big Bend to the Upper Trans Pecos and western/northern Basin Thursday into Friday. The chance of rain will be below mentionable levels from the eastern Basin to the lower Trans Pecos, where subsidence will be stronger along the western influence of the upper ridge. The mid level flow pattern will transition zonal by Saturday before ridging aloft amplifies across our region Sunday. Rain/storm coverage becomes more isolated to scattered in nature this weekend with the best potential favored over the mountains. The next upper-level trough translating toward the southern Rockies and Plains may bring an increase in rain/storm chances by next Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will remain near to just a few degrees above normal in the 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday but look to trend warmer this weekend with lower rain chances and the building ridge aloft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the local terminals through the period. Winds will remain northeasterly to easterly early this morning behind a weak cold front slowly moving across the area. MVFR ceilings may develop as far south as the northern Permian Basin into northern Lea county NM by around sunrise this morning, but we currently expect these to stay just north of KHOB. Chances for SHRA/TSRA will increase again this afternoon into this evening and have maintained PROB30 mention for TSRA and gusty winds over most terminals, except for KPEQ and KFST where confidence was slightly lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 68 89 69 / 50 40 20 20 Carlsbad 89 64 83 63 / 40 60 50 70 Dryden 92 71 91 71 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 89 68 87 69 / 30 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 80 60 74 59 / 30 50 70 80 Hobbs 85 64 82 64 / 30 60 30 60 Marfa 84 59 81 58 / 20 10 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 88 68 87 69 / 40 40 20 20 Odessa 88 69 87 70 / 40 40 20 20 Wink 90 69 88 70 / 30 30 20 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon through Thursday morning for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late Wednesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.