textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Hot and dry weather conditions will continue for most of the area through next week.

- A few storms will be possible each afternoon over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 152 AM CDT CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper-level high pressure centered over the Four Corners will remain the dominant feature over much of the southwestern U.S., including southeast New Mexico and west Texas through Saturday afternoon. A surface trough will extend from the Texas panhandle through central New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening. Weak convergence/upslope flow along this feature will aid in the development of isolated convection across the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend again this afternoon into early this evening. We will keep POPs very low in the 10-20% over far western and southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Any storm that develops may briefly pulse strong to marginally severe with strong/gusty winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures and dry weather can otherwise be expected over the rest of the region given subsidence under the upper-level ridge. High temperatures will mostly range in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over the majority of the region, except in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the mountain areas and up to 105 degrees along the Rio Grande. While dry weather conditions are expected to prevail over our forecast area tonight, it is interesting to note that couple of models/CAMs do try to bring a few showers/storms into portions of southeast New Mexico and the northwest Basin late this evening or overnight with a shortwave impulse embedded along the southeastern periphery of the ridge. Confidence in this scenario is very low, so we only have POPs around 10% indicated over these areas with no mention of convection in the forecast with this package. Lows tonight will remain seasonably warm with readings mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The upper-ridge axis expands eastward on Saturday with increased subsidence over our region under this feature. Very isolated showers or a thunderstorm may briefly develop again over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau/Big Bend, but POPs remain very low at 10% or less. Temperatures on Saturday will remain hot with readings topping out in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees for most.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 152 AM CDT CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The upper-level ridge will remain centered near the Four Corners late this weekend through the middle of next week. This feature may weaken somewhat by the latter part of the week but should still continue to extend from the Four Corners through the state of Texas and the Gulf Coast region. Hot and dry weather conditions will continue for most of our forecast area Sunday through Tuesday with the exception of very isolated convection near the Davis Mountains or Marfa Plateau. Shower and storm coverage may become more scattered in nature (generally 30-50%) by Wednesday and Thursday over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains and down into the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend, while POPs over the rest of the forecast area remain 20% or less. Expect the August heat to persist through much of next week with daily highs ranging in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees for most locations each day. A few places along the Rio Grande may top out between 103-108 degrees next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Southeasterly winds up to 10-15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots can be expected today before diminishing somewhat by this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 73 99 72 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 99 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 72 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 68 91 67 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 98 70 98 69 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 91 62 91 61 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.