textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Low-to-medium (10-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances continue today in the Eastern Permian Basin and today and tomorrow in the Davis Mountains. Severe threat is low overall, aside from isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds with the strongest storms.

- A hot and dry weather pattern takes shape this weekend. Thunderstorm chances are almost nonexistent and temperatures climb back above normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The MCS that marched across the area yesterday has now made its way into central/south-central Texas. Behind it, water vapor satellite imagery shows the shortwave trough the helped develop that MCS making its trek across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Convective-allowing models depict some showers and thunderstorms redeveloping later this morning in the Eastern Permian Basin as this shortwave continues moving through the region. Whatever showers and thunderstorms that do develop will make their way beyond our area this afternoon. Besides this activity, continued upslope flow may also encourage thunderstorm development in the Davis Mountains later this afternoon as well. Overall, both scenarios have a low-to-medium chance of occurring (10-40%). Shear will be fairly limited today (15- 25 knots in general), but enough instability exists to allow for at least a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk of large hail and damaging winds.

That being said, most of the area will stay dry today, so enjoy the pleasant temperatures while you can! Highs today top out in the 80s for most (except along the Rio Grande), with lows in the 60s generally. However, things start to change tomorrow. We will be on the backside of the shortwave by then in a northwesterly flow regime. Out to the west, the ridge slowly begins to creep back this direction. Continued upslope flow supports more thunderstorm chances in the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico (20- 40%). Otherwise, Thursday marks the beginning of a warming trend, which is discussed in more detail in the Long Term...

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The recent rains and cooler weather begins to come to an end by Friday. The upper-level ridge that had been centered off the coast of Baja California begins to intensify and build northeast towards northern Mexico and south Texas into this weekend. Afternoon temperatures gradually warm up through the middle to upper 90s for most locations with 100s returning to the river valleys. More widespread 100s return by next week. Similarly, overnight temperatures climb back above normal with upper 60s and lower 70s the most prevalent. Thunderstorm chances are very limited with the ridge becoming dominant. A low (10-20%) chance of precipitation is only anticipated for the Davis Mountains and far northern portions of the Permian Basin. These thunderstorms are driven by the favorable terrain in the case of the Davis Mountains and by glancing blows from distance weather systems across portions of the Permian Basin. Overall, a hot and dry forecast is to be expected. It does not appear any major pattern changes arrive until at least late next week.

-Chehak

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some residual showers or light thunderstorms are possible at MAF later this morning, though chances were too low to include in the TAF (<30%). Otherwise, light easterly winds generally become more southeasterly later in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 80 64 91 70 / 40 10 10 10 Carlsbad 87 67 96 68 / 10 10 20 10 Dryden 87 69 93 72 / 40 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 84 66 95 70 / 20 0 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 82 66 90 68 / 10 10 20 10 Hobbs 83 62 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 84 61 90 63 / 30 10 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 83 66 92 71 / 30 0 10 10 Odessa 82 66 92 70 / 20 0 10 10 Wink 86 66 95 70 / 10 0 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.