textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Low shower/storm chances (10-20%) today and medium chances (30-60%) Tuesday across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas today through at least Wednesday.

- Windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains today through Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A large upper-level trough begins to dig into the southwestern CONUS this afternoon, leaving southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft. The associated jet streak ahead of this feature begins to move over southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, southwesterly downslope flow at/near the surface brings drier air into this region, providing steep lapse rates at the lower and middle levels of the troposphere. Not surprisingly, forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles extending up to 600mb. This yields windy conditions in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Monday afternoon as momentum is allowed to be transfered to the surface. Breezy conditions can also be seen across the adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains, Davis Mountain Foothills, and Permian Basin with the aid of surface troughing behind the dryline. The dryline is expected to set up across the eastern Permian Basin and extend south through the Lower Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region, providing a source of mesoscale forcing ahead of it. Sufficient instability, moisture, and shear yields a low (10-20%) chance of isolated showers/storms across the Lower Trans-Pecos (including Pecos and Terrel Counties), one or two of which could be strong to severe. The main hazards would be damaging winds and large hail. Should any storms develop, they would quickly move east of our CWA.

By Tuesday, the aforementioned upper-level trough continues to track east towards our region, with its associated jet streak expanding and strengthening over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Meanwhile, the dryline remains situated in the same location as today. Deep mixing west of the dryline will again transfer mid-level momentum to the surface, bringing windy conditions to the same locations Tuesday afternoon. Winds are forecast to reach high wind criteria during this timeframe, prompting us to issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains (including the Carlsbad Caverns National Park). Breezy conditions can be expected elsewhere. We are also looking out for fire weather potential Tuesday afternoon across portions of southeast New Mexico (particularly Lea and Chavez Counties) as breezy conditions coupled with drier air and fuels are forecast (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details). As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas from the early afternoon through early evening on Tuesday. Given stronger large-scale forcing ahead of the dryline, chances (20-50%, up to 60%) of showers and thunderstorms increase across the eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos Tuesday afternoon. A couple of which could become strong to severe once again, with damaging winds and large hail being the main hazards. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the evening hours (see Long Term Discussion Below for more details). Greening

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to be prevalent over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper-level storm system moves across the Rockies. At the surface, a Pacific front arrives in the region Tuesday evening. Medium range guidance has the dryline retrograding further to the west during this time. Both of these features increase the chance for isolated to scattered storms to develop across the eastern half of the forecast area. A few of these storms may become strong to severe where the main threats with the strongest storms will be damaging winds and large hail. Wednesday, long-range guidance has the base of the aforementioned trough passing over the region. Winds are expected to not be as strong compared with Monday and Tuesday, however, breezy conditions are anticipated for similar areas. This will also keep elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions over these locations being on the western periphery of the dryline. The Pacific front looks to slightly cool temperatures on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s for most locations.

Thursday and Friday, subtle upper-level ridging looks to take shape, allowing warmer temperatures in the 80s to low 90s for most. Guidance also has lee cyclogenesis occurring across the Rockies which will provide more breezy conditions both days. Winds increase on Friday as another upper-level storm system approaches, while the surface low lee of the Rockies strengthens. This will once again bring near-critical to critical fire weather concerns across southeast New Mexico and potentially high winds over the Guadalupe Mountains. Guidance shows a cold front sweeping through Friday night into Saturday, supplying cooler conditions throughout the weekend (mid 60s and 70s for most). This front may also provide some rain chances over our eastern portions as it pushes in. Of course, these impacts will depend on exact timing and strength of the cold front. Stay tuned for updates!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty southwesterly winds continue at CNM and HOB until around sunset before diminishing. Elsewhere, southwesterly winds generally between 10-15 kts are expected, with occasional light gusts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Fire weather conditions begin to increase today especially for areas across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Critical MinRHs and breezy to gusty winds are expected over these areas. Cloud cover throughout the morning and afternoon hours may mitigate fire weather concerns, however, coverage is expected to be scattered and thin. Fire weather conditions increase Tuesday as stronger winds and similar MinRHs are expected. Increased cloud cover may mitigate this threat once again and prevent ignition. Most of these areas received little rainfall Saturday (0.01-0.1" generally) so fuels will remain relatively dry early this week promoting the increase of fire weather conditions. Fuels will continue to cure throughout the week over western portions of the forecast area. Another upper-level storm system approaches the region beginning on Thursday. Strong westerly winds with very low MinRHs look to result in critical fire weather conditions for similar areas on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 64 87 61 / 0 20 40 50 Carlsbad 85 58 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 65 84 63 / 20 40 50 50 Fort Stockton 88 61 87 62 / 10 20 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 75 56 74 51 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 85 56 84 53 / 0 10 0 10 Marfa 80 49 79 49 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 87 64 87 62 / 0 20 30 40 Odessa 86 64 86 62 / 0 20 20 40 Wink 88 60 87 57 / 0 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Chaves Plains-Lea.