textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail possible during the afternoon and evening today.

- Strong (35 mph or greater) winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes Friday morning-Friday afternoon.

- Colder temperatures (highs below 70F, lows below 50F) for much of the area by Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Two batches of thunderstorms are moving through the region. One is entering the Permian Basin and will continue north near Midland/Odessa over the next few hours. The other is further west near the I-10/I-20 split and will continue north into Culberson County and potentially into SE NM. As this round moves to the north out of the area or decays, a lull in activity will largely be seen during the mid to late morning today before another batch of convection develops from Big Bend into the southern Permian Basin during the early afternoon. Similar to today, a storm or two may be become severe will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Flooding will continue to be the main threat as any convection that develops will be efficient. Locations with already saturated ground will have an additional risk to any more rainfall they see. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly as individual cells will bring the bulk of the rain to more localized areas.

Also similar to last night, convection will linger into Wednesday evening with storms once again training over areas of the Permian Basin south into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Thursday will be a partial repeat of today with a brief lull in convection after sunrise. However, this break will be short lived as a cold front approaches by the late morning and early afternoon. This front will act as another focus for shower and storm development and continue the risk for flooding, mainly across the Permian Basin and areas between I-10 and I-20. Forecast highs will be just above normal for today with lows in the 60s tonight. With the front moving into the region earlier in the day tomorrow, highs reach into the 70s to low 80s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Much cooler air moves in behind the front and Thursday evening sees temperatures tumble into the 40s and 50s. As the front moves south, the bulk of the rain also moves to the south, but high rain chances will exist over much of the CWA with the exception of parts of SE NM. An extension of the Flood Watch may be needed for some areas south of I-10 on Friday as another round of rain may be seen. Fall like temperatures continue through Saturday as highs struggle to reach 60F and overnight lows settle into the low to mid 40s.

The area begins to dry out late Friday and into Saturday with rain chances decreasing below 10% for much of the region. By Sunday, highs reach back into the 70s with lows in the 50s. A warm up back to normal continues through early next week.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Scattered showers and storms taper off over the next couple of hours. A new batch of storms develops this afternoon with CNM/HOB having the lowest chances of seeing impacts. Outside of convection, southerly winds continue. Cold front approaches the region near the end of the TAF period. VFR persists.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 67 78 51 / 70 70 80 80 Carlsbad 88 61 82 52 / 10 0 0 40 Dryden 91 71 83 54 / 40 50 70 100 Fort Stockton 87 66 79 49 / 80 70 70 100 Guadalupe Pass 79 59 74 45 / 0 0 0 50 Hobbs 79 61 75 48 / 30 20 10 40 Marfa 80 59 75 41 / 30 50 70 90 Midland Intl Airport 84 67 77 51 / 80 60 80 90 Odessa 83 67 77 51 / 70 60 80 90 Wink 83 66 80 52 / 40 30 50 80

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...None.