textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Daytime 25% to 35% shower/storm chances each afternoon/evening this week through early next week.

- Hazardous heat returns to the area Wednesday and Thursday, especially for regions along the Rio Grande, Pecos River valley, and over the northeast Permian Basin.

- Shower/storm chances increase this weekend through early next week, with seasonable to below average temperatures expected by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VIS/IR satellite and observations this morning depicted low stratus clouds over the SE NM plains and eastern Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin. These clouds are thinning out now with daytime heating, as highs only rise into the lower to mid 90s F, with upper 90s F to triple digit highs limited to the Upper Trans Pecos, Culberson County, and Rio Grande basin, and 105F+ highs limited to the Big Bend. 15 to 25 mph south/southeast winds this afternoon will persist into the evening. Additionally, a stray (5% to 15%) chance of showers/storms from the western higher terrain into northern SE NM plains are expected as a subtle disturbance over southern AZ/NM develops into W TX and provides lift and moisture convergence that interacts with heating of elevated terrain. Following evening showers/storms, PoPs quickly drop off with loss of daytime heating. However, nighttime cooling will continue to be limited due to dew point temperatures remaining in the mid 50s to 60s F range and 15 to 25 mph south/southeast winds in the LLJ. This will mean lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s F once again.

Wednesday will feature a return to hot and humid weather as the mid to upper ridge that slid east of the area builds back west, with accompanying large scale sinking and drying. Highs rise into the triple digits not just along the usual warm spots of the Rio Grande basin, basins of Culberson County, and Pecos River valley, but also the rest of the SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin. 105F-110F highs for the Pecos River valley into Upper Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande will pose a risk of hazardous heat. Across the central and eastern Permian Basin where dew point temperatures remain in the mid to upper 60s F through the afternoon, apparent temperatures a few degrees above actual air temperatures will pose a hazardous heat risk for those regions as well. Hazardous heat everywhere will still fall under advisory criteria, but regions that come closest to meeting criteria will be located along the Rio Grande (Presidio Valley, Big Bend), followed by Culberson County and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains, and northeast Permian Basin. The Midland-Odessa region could also see their first 100F day for this year, although chances of exceeding 99F are only 30% at this time. Regardless of exact temperatures, it's going to be hot, and we advise people to limit time spent outdoors, remain in air conditioned facilities, and drink plenty of water, postponing any physical activity to later in the evening. Stronger heating of elevated terrain interacting with a more potent ripple of disturbances drifting northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon will allow 25% to 35% PoPs to develop over the Marfa Plateau. As PWATs remain at least 2 standard deviations in the 1.00" to 1.20" range, brief heavy rainfall will be a risk with any storms that form. Just like on Tuesday, loss of daytime heating will allow storms to dissipate by nightfall. Lows Wednesday night settle into the upper 60s to mid 70s F and there is a high (75% to 85%) chance of lows not even falling below 80F for the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. The warming trend continues into Thursday, but a cooldown of sorts is on the way. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Highs Thursday a few degrees warmer than Wednesday are in store as mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale subsidence warm and dry the air column. Near criteria hazardous heat will once again be present for the same regions as on Wednesday, and we will continue to message heat safety advice, such as limiting time spent outdoors, seeking air conditioned facilities, drinking plenty of water, and postponing physical activity to early in the morning or later in the evening. For the Midland-Odessa region, the chances of exceeding 99F will be slightly higher than on Wednesday (35% to 45% chance instead of <30% chance), but highs may still not reach triple digits. 15% to 25% PoPs develop from the Presidio Valley into northwest Permian Basin by late afternoon/evening surrounding 25% to 35% PoPs over the Marfa Plateau, with continued dew point temperatures above 55F allowing lows to stay above the lower 70s F for most once again.

Thursday will just be a speed bump on the trend back down to more seasonable temperatures. Mid to upper ridging weakens, disturbances to the west dig into the western part of the area, and a cold front approaches from the north as a Hudson Bay mid to upper trough extending into the Great Plains strengthens. Consequently, PoPs increase to 25% to 35% from the Presidio Valley into SE NM plains, as highs only increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s F, and triple digit highs once again get confined to the Rio Grande. Cooler daytime highs will cool off to more seasonable lows Friday night, settling into the mid 60s to lower 70s F for lower elevations, and lower to mid 60s F for the Marfa Plateau. Temperatures remain warm, but the precipitation pattern unsettled as a cold front lingers to the north of the area. PoPs rise into the 35% to 45% range for western higher terrain Saturday and areawide into the 25% to 40% range Sunday, even as highs this weekend warm a few degrees from Friday and lows stay similar to Friday night. Early next week the forecast is still on track for the cold front to the north to finally clear the area, allowing highs to stay in the mid 80s to lower 90s F range, bringing seasonable to slightly below temperatures back to most of the area. However, exact timing and magnitude of temperature decrease remains uncertain this far out. Additionally, at least 25% to 35% PoPs are indicated Monday and Tuesday next week as the air remains humid and unsettled even behind the cold front, and ensembles indicate PWATs being slow to decrease below 2 standard deviations. Therefore, heavy rain with at least a few tenths accumulation this weekend into early next week remains a possibility.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR cigs have lifted and VFR has returned to all terminals. Gusty southeast winds will affect all sites through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 71 106 73 106 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 73 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 103 73 103 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 68 102 70 102 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 62 96 63 95 / 10 30 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 71 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 104 73 104 / 0 10 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.