textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- A storm system raises concerns for strong winds for western portions of the area and the potential for strong to severe storms over our easternmost counties this afternoon and evening.

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today, along with Elevated to Near-Critical conditions Thursday for western portions of the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return once again Friday afternoon and into Saturday, mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. A few storms may become strong to severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The upper level shortwave trough is currently entering the western US. The base of this feature is progged to swing over New Mexico by this afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary lies over the Texas Panhandle while a dryline extends from near the TX/NM border down to just east of the Big Bend. The frontal boundary lifts northward later today, but the dryline serves as a focal point for shower/storm development as a lee trough deepens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. By this afternoon, the dryline is expected be oriented near the north central/ northeastern Permian Basin, extending southwestward to slightly east of the Big Bend. Sufficient lift, instability, and shear ahead of the dryline and approaching trough provide an environment conducive for a couple of storms to become strong to severe late this afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storm development will be over our easternmost counties. Any severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Low (10-30%) rain chances are forecast over SE NM, the Permian Basin, and the Lower Tran Pecos this afternoon. Best (~30%) chances lie over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. This evening, rain chances increase to range from 10-50% across the region, increasing with eastward extent. CAMs show isolated storms eventually consolidating into a line near our eastern counties this evening, then shifting eastward through the overnight hours.

Aside from rain chances, this system brings breezy to strong west/southwest winds to our region. The strongest winds are expected over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and eastern Culberson County, where a High Wind Warning is in effect from midday through late this evening. Meanwhile, the SE NM plains, western Culberson, and Loving Counties are under a Wind Advisory. Elevated winds and dry conditions west of the dryline have prompted a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement over most of the western half of our region this afternoon and evening.

This system departs by Thursday morning, but southwest winds remain breezy as another lee trough takes shape ahead of our next storm system set to arrive Friday. More details on this particular system in the Long term discussion. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon are forecast to reach the 80s to low 90s, then bottom out mainly in the 50s tonight. Highs Thursday warm into the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Southerly winds bring moisture back into the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos Thursday night and Friday morning. Meanwhile, an upper-level system begins to make its way across the northern and central Plains. Guidance still indicates west Texas and southeast New Mexico will be on the southern end of the trough. Nevertheless, pulses in the flow aloft will move over our area Friday. As the dryline sharpens Friday afternoon over the Permian Basin, these pulses are expected to interact with moisture pooled in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, yielding shower and thunderstorm development. Similar to Wednesday, the best shower and thunderstorm coverage looks to be just to our east, but 20-50% chances are maintained for eastern portions of the forecast area. While instability did trend down slightly from previous forecast runs, model soundings still indicate CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 30-35 kts. Thus, whatever storms do develop east of the dryline would have the potential of becoming strong to severe, posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat.

Friday night into Saturday morning, a front pushes south into our area. This pushes rain chances farther south through the day Saturday and ushers in much cooler temperatures across the region. Highs through the weekend and into early next week mainly top out in the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s (with 50s in the higher terrain). Shower and thunderstorm chances (mainly in the 20-50% range) persist for southernmost portions of the area through Sunday afternoon.

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light southwest flow will veer to west Wednesday afternoon, increase, and become gusty. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field Wednesday, w/bases ~ 8 kft AGL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

ERCs remain near or above the 75th percentile for much of the area, particularly for locations west of the Pecos River and in southeast New Mexico. Min RHs are still forecast to remain in the 15-20% range today for westernmost portions of the area (higher to the east). However, sustained winds generally in the 25-35 mph range are expected over these westernmost portions of the region (higher winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains). These winds, along with the dry fuels and potential for gusty/erratic winds with any thunderstorms that develop, yield Near-Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. Because of the borderline RHs, we have elected to replace the previously-issued Fire Weather Watch with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. This RFD encompasses the same locations as the watch (southeast New Mexico, Upper Trans- Pecos, Guadalupe/Delaware and Davis Mountains, and the Presidio Valley). Thursday, winds generally decrease, but critical min RHs return to the region. The best overlap of breezy winds and critical min RHs will be over southeast New Mexico and in/near the Guadalupe Mountains. As a result, an RFD may be necessary Thursday afternoon and evening for these locations as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 56 87 61 / 30 40 0 0 Carlsbad 86 53 86 54 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 92 62 88 64 / 20 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 59 88 61 / 20 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 52 75 55 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 85 49 84 52 / 10 20 0 0 Marfa 83 47 80 46 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 57 86 62 / 20 30 0 0 Odessa 88 57 85 62 / 20 30 0 0 Wink 88 54 87 57 / 10 20 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening for Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.