textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Record-breaking temperatures again today, but a front tonight brings more seasonable temperatures back to the area Monday. Well-above normal highs return by Tuesday.

- Breezy northeasterly winds accompany today's front, and a brief period of high gap winds are expected at Guadalupe Pass tonight.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions today, especially across the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and Davis Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Another day of record-setting temperatures is on tap today across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. However, a shortwave trough to the north begins to dampen upper-level ridging, and also sends a front into our area this evening. This front provides a temporary respite from the summer-like temperatures on Monday. In the meantime, however, highs today once again top out in the mid-to- upper 90s across the region, with some locations pushing 100 degrees. At MAF, the forecasted high is 98 degrees, which would crush the previous high temperature record of 91 degrees for today. Given the abnormal heat and continued very dry conditions, fire weather concerns will also be heightened today, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of west Texas this afternoon and evening. While southerly to southwesterly winds this afternoon generally range between 10-20 mph for most locations, this evening's front brings breezy northeasterly winds (on the order of 20-30 mph sustained). The front looks to begin pushing into our northernmost counties around 6pm CDT, and will continue moving across the area through the overnight hours. A brief period of high gap winds are expected at Guadalupe Pass, so a High Wind Warning remains in effect there overnight into Monday morning.

Lows Monday morning behind the front bottom out in the 50s and mid- to-upper 40s for most locations (60s closer to the Rio Grande). Highs Monday look more spring than summer-like, with most locations topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s. Lows Tuesday morning look similar to, albeit a couple of degrees warmer than, Monday morning's. However, ridging quickly becomes reestablished going into the Long Term Period, cutting our return to more seasonable temperatures short...

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

After a day of relief on Monday, another warm up begins on Tuesday (and lasts through Thursday) as the upper-level ridge of high pressure builds and expands eastward. There remains a medium to high (40-80%) probability that record highs will be either tied or broken again Tuesday through Thursday across portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico. Expect highs in the mid-to- upper 90s for most Wednesday and Thursday, with some spots across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande seeing highs in the triple digits on Thursday. Long-range guidance continues to depict the arrival of another cold front Thursday night, potentially dropping afternoon highs into the mid 70s across most of the area (even cooler Saturday) for most on Friday. However, there continues to be large spread among the ensemble members. Thus, maintaining low confidence in the forecast this far out. Dry conditions persist through the end of this forecast period. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly to southerly winds this afternoon become northeasterly behind a front this evening. Winds also become gusty behind the front. Given these gusty winds, some patchy BLDU could accompany the front as it moves in from the north, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF for any site at this time. Winds become lighter towards the end of the period tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of west Texas due to unseasonably hot temperatures, single digit minRHs, increased winds, and critically to extremely dry fuels. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) can be expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. A cold front moves into our northern counties by around 7pm CDT this evening and sweeps through the whole region by 7am CDT Monday morning. Winds become northeasterly and increase (20-30 mph sustained, with gusts up to 40 mph) behind the front before decreasing to 10 mph or less and shifting to easterly by Monday afternoon. These wind shifts will aggravate any potential fire starts. Given this information, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until this evening across much of west Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 51 78 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 52 79 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 56 87 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 83 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 73 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 77 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 45 81 45 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 52 80 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 52 79 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 53 79 53 94 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.