textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A cold front moves through portions of our area just before sunrise this morning, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy winds this afternoon.

- Temperatures vary from near to below normal midweek.

- A stronger front enters the area late in the week, bringing colder temperatures and low (20-40%) precipitation chances this weekend. Confidence in the specific details are low at this time, so stay tuned for updates!

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Water vapor imagery and the latest upper air analysis show evidence of a shortwave trough moving over the Central Rockies and is expected to move into the Central Plains this morning. Surface analysis depicts a cold front draped along the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, marked by a wind shift. This cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into our area right before sunrise. Surface analysis also shows surface lee troughing in eastern New Mexico. These two features bring breezy winds (15-20 mph sustained) to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin of west Texas by late this morning/early afternoon and lasts through most of the afternoon. Highs this afternoon become 5-15 degrees cooler from yesterday's (mainly across the northern half of the CWA), with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. For the southern half of the CWA, temperatures in the 60s can be expected for most.

Surface high pressure builds into the Southern Plains tonight, leaving our area on the western edge of a surface ridge. This feature will continue to filter in colder air tonight, yielding overnight lows in the 20s for most, with 30s across the Big Bend/Presidio Valley and upper teens across the far northern fringes of our forecast area. Surface high pressure moves to the east on Tuesday, keeping us on the far western edge of the aforementioned surface ridge and allowing for southerly return flow at the surface. Despite this, cloud cover hangs around and looks to be more widespread across the southern half of our forecast area. This yields widespread highs in the 50s, with some locations bottoming out into the upper 40s across portions of the Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos. No precipitation is expected in the short term period. Greening

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Wednesday and Thursday over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Another front is forecast to enter the area Wednesday, though it looks weaker than today's front. As a result, highs both Wednesday and Thursday rebound closer to normal. Most locations top out in the upper 50s (especially in the Permian Basin and the higher terrain) and low-to- mid 60s (especially in the Trans-Pecos and farther south). Winds will generally be southeasterly to southerly, which will help bring up a little more low-level moisture through Friday.

The forecast becomes more interesting (and much more uncertain) beginning Friday. In the past 24 hours, the late-week front mentioned in previous discussions has trended both earlier and stronger. Highs Friday are currently forecast to be capped in the low-to-mid 50s by the front in the Permian Basin, with 60s and low 70s further south. Cold air continues to push through the region Friday night into Saturday. Highs Saturday have trended significantly lower, with current forecast highs topping out in the 30s and low-to-mid 40s for much of the area. Precipitation chances have also trended up Friday evening into Saturday thanks to an incoming trough ejecting east/northeastward from Baja/the southwestern US. As a result of this plus the aforementioned increase in low-level moisture, the NBM has output 20-40% chances across much of the region during this timeframe.

Though GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members are in relatively good agreement right now with regards to a stronger front and the potential for some precipitation (including wintry precipitation), a lot of uncertainty remains. For one thing, this trend came on rather sharply, so continued consistency within the next several models runs will be needed to help increase confidence. Other factors that will need to be closely monitored include the positioning/speed of the trough (ie the main large scale forcing mechanism, aside from the front), the quality of moisture return, and low-to-mid level temperature profiles (which will affect precipitation type). All of that is to say, while confidence is still low at this time given the acute nature of these trends, this is something we will be keeping a very close eye on. More updates are to come in subsequent forecast packages, so stay tuned!

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR to prevail through the period. A cold front will arrive around sunrise switching winds to the north with gusts up to 20 kts through the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 23 49 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 53 24 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 37 52 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 28 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 49 20 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 21 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 24 49 32 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 55 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 55 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.