textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Best storm chances continue diminishing and shifting west of the Pecos through Friday. Chances will be optimal in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

- Widespread 95F-105F high temperatures for this weekend through the end of the next week, with a slight warming trend after the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an elongated ridge of high pressure over the region. This feature will bring slightly warmer temperatures in the low to upper 90s and drier conditions compared to yesterday. Storm development is expected to be isolated and confined near/in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon through early evening. This is thanks to upslope flow and surface troughing across the southern Rockies. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles, modest to high DCAPE values (800-1300 J/kg), and PWATs nearing the 75th climatological percentile. These parameters suggest gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the primary threats with the strongest storms. Localized flash flooding may become a concern over the parts of the Davis Mountains given the recent rainfall amounts from previous days.

Tonight, lows are expected to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. The aforementioned upper ridge of high pressure extends farther west and strengthens over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. As a result, high temperatures increase 3-5 degrees for most locations where spots along the Pecos River, Rio Grande, and Presidio Valley return to the triple digits. Isolated storms are in store again across portions of the higher terrain and southeast New Mexico Plains Saturday afternoon through early evening.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Weak mid to upper ridging over the central CONUS keeps temperatures near to above average for this time of year from this weekend through the middle of next weekend. This translates to highs from through the rest of the weekend in the 95F-100F range, 90F-95F higher elevations, 100F-105F range along the Pecos River and Presidio Valley, and up to 105F-110F continuing for the Big Bend. Lows likewise fall into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F northern Lea County, and 60F-70F range usual cooler spots of Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, with lows 75F-80F for the Rio Grande basin. Large scale subsiding motion from the ridge aloft keeps shower/storm chances low (10% to 30%) - largely driven by daytime heating of elevated terrain and humid, upslope flow interacting with terrain generated disturbances providing additional forcing for ascent and moisture convergence - as lee troughing will remain to the west of the forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble models are consistent in showing marked amplification of the ridge from the middle of the week into the end of next week, allowing 100F-105F highs to return over a large portion of the SE NM plains, Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau, while shower/storm chances remain low (10% to 30%). Rainfall accumulations are expected to remain light due to decreasing PWATs and dry air at lower levels beginning by the end of this weekend and continuing into next week. Hazardous heat will be the main weather impact, especially after the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions and southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the period. A FEW/SCT deck of low clouds (~2000ft) may develop near MAF during 11Z-14Z timeframe, though confidence is very low in this occurring.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 69 92 69 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 94 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 88 61 90 62 / 20 0 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 95 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.