textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again this afternoon and evening, mainly in southeast New Mexico and west of the Pecos River.

- Rain chances become more widespread Monday before diminishing Tuesday. Chances return again to much of the area by Thursday and Friday.

- Near-to-below normal temperatures are expected through Monday. Warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A wetter/cooler pattern is still on tap over the next 36 hours. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough centered over Utah/Arizona, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive southwest flow aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of the trough has increased return flow, advecting abundant Gulf moisture into the region. The 12Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.42", well above the 100th percentile of 1.35" and smashing the daily record of 1.14". Hopefully, some hydrologic good can come of this over the next 24-36 hours. Unfortunately, satellite, surface obs, and a glance out the window suggest overcast skies will limit destabilization this afternoon/evening somewhat, with lift coming from the leading edge of the trough itself. Latest CAMs have pulled the better deep-layer shear north, so the severe threat does not appear to be as relevant as it was 24 hours ago.

Tonight, overnight minimums are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler than this morning's, but a 40 kt LLJ and abundant cloud cover will still retard radiational cooling, keeping lows over 15 F above normal. The NBM and CAMs suggest two batches of convection overnight--One moving through Southeast New Mexico again, and another crossing the river into the Big Bend Area.

Monday, the trough ejects into the upper Midwest, w/the tail end swinging through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday afternoon. This looks like the best chance for rain this event, although NBM POPs have dropped a bit. Thicknesses look to be at a minimum, combining with overcast skies to yield the coolest day this forecast. Highs should average a couple of degrees below normal, putting most locations in the 70s.

Monday night, convection will generally diminish SW-NE. With a weak LLJ and skies beginning to clear, overnight lows should be ~3-4 F cooler than tonight's temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Drier and warmer conditions return Tuesday as a shortwave trough departs to our northeast. Heights increase a touch behind the shortwave, resulting in a brief warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to reach the mid 70s to low 80s, then increase a few degrees further Wednesday afternoon. Upslope flow may aid in the development of an isolated shower or storm near the Davis Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, most locations remain dry.

Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper trough overspreading the western CONUS deepens. Through the remainder of the work week, southwesterly flow increases aloft, accompanied by several shortwave disturbances. Increased moisture and lift from these disturbances yield the return of rain chances early Thursday into Friday night. Thursday night currently looks to feature our best shot at widespread rainfall. Ensembles depict PWAT values peaking between 1- 1.5" during this timeframe, over the 90th percentile, suggesting the potential for heavy rainfall. Consequently, we'll have to monitor how this setup unfolds going forward. Aside from rain chances, cloudier skies will contribute to cooler afternoon temperatures Thursday and Friday, topping out mainly in the 70s (low 80s in/near the river valleys). Temperatures gradually warm up over over the weekend as subtle ridging builds in from the south. Lows each night fall to the 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Return flow will continue advecting beaucoup boundary layer moisture into the area for the next 24 hours, resulting in an increase of deteriorating cigs, to MVFR/IFR by the end of the forecast period. Convection will be likely, and we've made a mention all terminals, based on the latest NBM/CAMs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 72 59 79 / 0 50 20 10 Carlsbad 58 72 55 77 / 50 30 10 0 Dryden 63 74 59 79 / 20 40 30 0 Fort Stockton 62 75 57 82 / 20 40 40 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 66 52 69 / 60 50 10 10 Hobbs 58 68 54 75 / 30 30 30 0 Marfa 54 71 51 74 / 30 40 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 70 58 77 / 10 40 10 0 Odessa 63 70 58 77 / 10 40 10 0 Wink 61 73 57 80 / 20 40 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.