textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Isolated storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across the southeastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and higher terrain. A storm or two may become strong capable of producing damaging winds and some hail. - Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging across the western CONUS, keeping temperatures near normal today and tomorrow. Easterly to southeasterly upslope flow and surface heating yield low (10-30%, up to 40%) chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across the higher terrain (particularly in/near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and Marfa Plateau). Visible satellite imagery supports this as it shows evidence of the development of a cu field (cumulus clouds) over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Radar imagery also shows a couple of pulse storms over the Guadalupe Mountains, but have so far struggled to hold together. Though chances (10-15%) are lower, remnant boundaries from yesterday's convection may yield additional storm development over portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and far southeastern Permian Basin. High resolution forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V profiles with abundant DCAPE (>1000 J/kg) values, suggesting that damaging winds will pose a threat with the strongest of storms. However, storm coverage this afternoon and evening is expected to be isolated. There is a very low (up to 15%) chance of a shower/storm or two near the Big Bend region Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures begin to warm up by the middle of the week (see Long Term discussion below for more details). Greening

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions expected through the remainder of the work week as weak upper-level ridging persists. High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will generally range from the upper 90s to low 100s, with Thursday anticipated to be the warmest day. Across the Rio Grande Valley, afternoon temperatures between 105 to 110 will be common on Thursday and Friday. These high temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those outdoors for extended periods, and residents are encouraged to stay hydrated and take necessary precautions. Due to limited upper-level forcing, afternoon thunderstorms will be isolated at best, with coverage around 10%. Any developing shower or thunderstorm activity will likely be confined to the higher terrain, where upslope flow and surface heating may provide sufficient lift.

The upper ridging currently centered to the west is projected to weaken over the area late Friday as it shifts toward the Four Corners region. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move into the forecast area within a northeasterly flow aloft, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. Consequently, a cooling trend is expected, with afternoon highs moderating into the low to mid-90s by Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail the next 24 hours. Easterly to southeasterly winds of 10 kts or less are expected throughout the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 99 73 101 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 91 69 92 / 10 0 0 10 Hobbs 70 97 72 98 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 61 92 63 93 / 10 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.