textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the next several days. Record high temperatures are forecast on Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today over the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep fire weather concerns elevated on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface low pressure will deepen over the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon. Low level thermal ridging will become enhanced along the associated surface trough axis that will extend over eastern New Mexico and west Texas, allowing for a return of above normal temperatures across our forecast area today. High temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most of our region. Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds will also develop over the area along the trough axis. A brief period of winds near warning criteria may materialize for a few hours over the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon, but speeds should be marginal and short-lived enough to preclude the issuance of a High Wind Warning. Southwesterly winds will remain elevated tonight and overnight lows will trend warmer with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s over most of the region.

The surface trough will become more elongated from eastern New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region on Wednesday. Low level thermal ridging will become further enhanced along this feature with a more westerly to northwesterly component to the wind further aiding in warming. Record high temperatures look to be a good bet across west Texas and southeast New Mexico with afternoon readings warming into the mid to upper 80s over most of the area, except mid to upper 70s in the mountains and in the lower 90s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. The record high of 86 degrees set in 2009 at MAF will be in jeopardy. Dry weather conditions will continue across the region underneath northwesterly flow aloft and with continued low relative humidity values.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A cold front still looks on track to push across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas on Thursday. Winds may become breezy from the north to northeast following the passage of this feature. Temperatures will trend cooler on Thursday behind the front, but will still be around 10 degrees above average with highs in the 70s north of I-10 and in the higher terrain areas, while readings from the Big Bend to the Lower Trans Pecos still reach into the 80s to around 90 degrees. Winds will become southerly again by Friday as the next surface trough takes shape over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Low level thermal ridging strengthens Friday through the weekend along the trough axis and afternoon high temperatures are forecast to warm back to well in the 80s again each day Friday-Sunday. Another weak cold front may approach our forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning, but this feature may stay just to our north. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal into Monday. Lows each night through the extended period will remain mild in the 40s and 50s. No precipitation is anticipated through the extended period as our region will remain located underneath dry northwesterly to zonal flow aloft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Light southerly to southwesterly winds early this morning will become southwesterly to westerly and will increase to 10-20 knots with a few higher gusts late this morning into this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from late this morning through early this evening over the Sacramento, Guadalupe, Delaware, and Davis Mountains, and the adjacent southeast New Mexico Plains/ Culberson/Reeves TX counties. A return to much above normal temperatures, increasing westerly 20 foot winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph (locally over 40 mph gusts in the Guadalupe Mountains) and minimum RH values between 8-13 percent will result in RFTI values up to 4-7 in much of the warning area. Another round of breezy west to northwest winds will develop over these same locations again Wednesday afternoon, but minimum RH values may trend a little bit higher, so confidence was not quite high enough for a Fire Weather Watch issuance on Wednesday. Later shifts will monitor trends, but at the very least a Rangeland Fire Danger statement may be needed for southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas on Wednesday given the near-critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 49 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 81 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 78 50 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 83 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 79 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 74 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 78 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 52 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 82 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.