textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Best storm chances continue diminishing and shifting west of the Pecos through Friday. Chances will be optimal in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough anchored on the west coast, from British Columbia south into California, keeping West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. To the east, an upper ridge remains centered over Kentucky/West Virginia. The western edge of this feature is developing west into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in increasing thicknesses and a consequent warming trend. For those who enjoy cooler temperatures, however, today's highs are set to come in below climatology by a degree or two. Due to the encroachment of the ridge from the east, convection this afternoon should stay west of the Pecos, and largely confined to the mountainous areas.

Tonight, convection should diminish rather quickly, despite the redevelopment of a 35 kt LLJ. This LLJ will keep the boundary layer well-mixed, combining w/plenty of mid/high cloud in southwest flow aloft to keep overnight minimums ~ 4-6 F above normal. Unfortunately, these unseasonably warm lows will persist through the extended.

Friday, the upper ridge continues building west, adding 2-3 F to today's highs and further restricting convective activity to the mountains. By this time, southwest flow aloft will be waning, and any convective activity will be due to orographics.

Friday night, as noted above, will be unseasonably warm, if not a degree or two warmer than tonight.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Temperatures this weekend warm back above normal as ridging aloft moves westward over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Highs largely top out in the upper 90s and at/just above 100 degrees both days. Rain chances for Independence Day are confined mainly to the Davis Mountains (10-20%). By Sunday night into early next week, the ridge shifts west of our area. As a result, we end up under northerly to northeasterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge. This allows low (mainly afternoon/evening) rain chances to return to some additional locations outside of the higher terrain Sunday night into Tuesday thanks to disturbances in the flow aloft (10-30%, highest in the mountains). However, what convection does develop would tend to be isolated in nature. Highs also tick down a couple of degrees Monday and Tuesday thanks to the westward displacement of the ridge. By the middle of next week, long range guidance suggests the ridge will start to strengthen and thicknesses will increase over our area. As a result, temperatures start to trend up and rain chances become confined to the higher terrain once again.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR continues for the TAF period. IsoT and SHRA will be intermittent at FST/MAF over the next couple of hours before the threat for rain or impacts at the terminal decrease near or after sunset. Winds outside of convection will be southeasterly around 10-15kts with occasional gusts to near 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 95 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 90 69 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 68 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 88 61 90 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.