textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend. Rain chances (10-40%) begin to increase Sunday night into early next week.

- A series of upper level disturbances will bring an increasing chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region Tuesday through much of next week. We will be monitoring for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding potential as well as for a few strong to severe storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an upper-level ridge developing over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Increasing heights and dry air aloft will bring a dry and warm weekend for early October standards. High temperatures today and Sunday are forecast to range from the mid 80s to low 90s areawide with Sunday the warmest day. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds are in store during the afternoon persisting through Sunday. This is thanks to surface troughing developing across the southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. Lows tonight should be a few degrees warmer than last night, as a strengthening low-level jet keeps boundary layer winds elevated and maintains nocturnal mixing. Lows are expected to range from the low to mid 60s for most locations.

Warm and dry conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon under the influence of the upper-level ridge. By tomorrow night, an upper- level storm system begins to approach the region. Upper-level and surface troughing will provide support scattered shower/thunderstorm development across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms. A more active and unsettled weather pattern is in store early this upcoming week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas on Monday between upper-level ridging over the Gulf Coast states/Mississippi Valley and an upper-level trough that will continue to dig across the western CONUS. A surface trough meanwhile extends from the central Plains and into southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft and convergence along the surface trough will aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and Big Bend/Presidio Valley Monday afternoon and evening. An upper-level low deepening over Nevada Monday night will slowly lift across Utah Tuesday into Tuesday night. Deep layer moisture will increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and much of west and southwest Texas underneath the persistent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature. A surface trough also remains oriented from far southeast New Mexico into Davis Mountains/Big Bend. Shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft should initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and to the east of the surface trough axis Tuesday afternoon and evening. We will maintain a decent chance (30-60%) of showers/storms over far southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region. Modest CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG and bulk shear values up to 25-35 kt could support a few organized storms capable of producing damaging gusts and/or hail Tuesday afternoon/evening. High PWAT values up to 1.4-1.7 inches will also support heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding with the stronger storms that develop. Temperatures remain around 10 degrees or so above normal both Monday and Tuesday with highs mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s with morning lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

An active weather pattern looks to persist Wednesday and potentially through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance generally shows the upper-level low slowly moving eastward toward Colorado Wednesday before eventually phasing with another trough in the northern stream flow over the Plains by Thursday. A moist southwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent over much of our forecast area both days and persistent shortwave disturbances lifting over the very moist airmass over our region will support a continued good (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, with the best chances focused over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region. The pattern looks supportive of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding where the deepest moisture axis sets up both days. A cold front still looks on track to push through much of the forecast area late Thursday into early Friday morning. There will be a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves into our region on Friday. Temperatures will trend much cooler behind the front with lingering rain chances/cloud cover with highs currently forecast to range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows may fall into the 40s and 50s by Friday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds are expected at most terminals through much of the TAF period. A low-level jet develops early this evening, continuing breezy southeasterly/southerly winds. Occasional gusts up to 30 kts may occur, especially for MAF, FST, INK, and HOB sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 90 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 92 67 94 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 67 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 65 91 68 95 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 62 84 64 82 / 0 0 60 10 Hobbs 62 87 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 65 88 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 66 88 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 66 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.