textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend. Rain chances (10-40%) begin to increase Sunday night into early next week.

- A series of upper level disturbances will bring an increasing chance (30-70%) of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region Tuesday through much of next week. We will be monitoring for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding potential as well as for a few strong to severe storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Satellite imagery shows upper-level ridging positioned across the eastern half of Texas, while amplified troughing prevalent in the Desert Southwest. Surface troughing from the Rockies extending into portions of far west Texas will bring breezy southerly winds this afternoon through the evening. A low-level thermal ridge on the lee of the surface trough provides well above normal temperatures for this time of year. Highs are expected to range from the mid 80s to low 90s for most locations. Ascent from both the surface and upper- level troughs allow a low chance (10-40%) of showers and storms this evening into tonight across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms. Lows tonight look to remain in the low to upper 60s areawide.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned surface trough shifts eastward extending from the Central Plains to the Big Bend. Thicknesses also increase slightly ahead of a strengthening upper-level system. As a result, high temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most. Daytime heating combined with upslope winds will also support mainly isolated storms across the Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are in store by the evening and overnight hours from southeast New Mexico to the Presidio Valley, driven by passing shortwave troughs and remnant moisture from Simon. The weather pattern will become more unsettled on Tuesday continuing through mid week. See the long- term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A period of unsettled weather with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances still looks to impact southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas late Tuesday through Friday. An upper- level low will slowly pivot from Nevada/Utah/northern Arizona Tuesday and Tuesday night before lifting toward the Rocky Mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. The upper-level ridge axis will remain oriented over eastern portions of Texas and into the Gulf Coast states through midweek. Tropical moisture associated with tropical cyclone Simon located off the coast of western Mexico early this week will be drawn northeastward into much of southwest and west Texas and far southeast New Mexico within the southwesterly flow pattern aloft between these features both days. Precipitable water values will be near or slightly above climatological maxima for mid-October from the Big Bend into the Permian Basin, with values ranging between 1.6 and 1.9 inches per some of the latest high resolution (RRFS) and short term forecast guidance (GFS). Shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will translate across our forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. We initially expect scattered to locally numerous (30-60 percent) showers and thunderstorms to develop from the Big Bend into the Davis Mountains/Trans Pecos and Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. CAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear values of 25-35 kt will support a few strong to severe storms capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail Tuesday afternoon and evening. The deep moisture will also promote heavy rainfall within the stronger storms that develop, so we will also be monitoring for localized instances of flash flooding. A more potent shortwave trough looks to translate over our forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Increased ascent and the deeply moist airmass should allow for the development of another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend into the Trans Pecos, far southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance of storms looks to be along and east of a Seminole, Wink, Pecos/Balmorhea, Marfa, Presidio line. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will once again become a concern given the high PWAT airmass. Highs Tuesday will remain above normal with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s over most places. Highs on Wednesday trend slightly cooler in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

The upper-trough continues to lift over the central Plains on Thursday, while another trough pinches over the Desert Southwest. Upper-level ridging meanwhile remains oriented from east Texas to the Gulf Coast. The plume of tropical moisture remains oriented from the Big Bend to the Permian Basin Thursday. A cold front is still on track to push into our forecast area Thursday night. Potential for heavy rainfall increases along this boundary Thursday night into Friday. The latest ECMWF ensemble guidance has increased the probability of rainfall >1" to 40-60% from the Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos and Big Bend ahead of along the cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Rain chances continue on Friday before shifting west Friday night. Much cooler and drier weather can be expected this weekend with lows falling into the 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Saturday only reach into the 60s (50s higher elevation) and slightly warmer in the 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy southeasterly to southerly winds are in store again this afternoon through tonight. Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kts may occur, especially at MAF, HOB, INK, and FST terminals this afternoon and early evening. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are anticipated across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico this evening which may impact CNM. Given very low confidence, opted to not include TS PROB30 at the moment.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 30 Carlsbad 66 94 68 92 / 20 0 10 0 Dryden 70 91 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 67 95 71 94 / 0 10 10 60 Guadalupe Pass 64 82 64 80 / 30 0 10 0 Hobbs 64 90 67 89 / 10 0 20 10 Marfa 60 87 63 86 / 10 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 67 91 72 92 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 68 91 72 92 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 68 95 72 94 / 0 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.