textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- A low (25% to 35%) chance of showers/storms today from 12 pm to 9 pm from the Big Bend and Marfa Plateau into Culberson and Eddy Counties.

- Much drier weather with near zero rain chances Thursday continuing into Friday.

- A more unsettled weather pattern with daily shower/storm chances this weekend, continuing into next week.

- High temperatures cool to the 80s and 90s F for most places by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Mid to upper ridging expanding west from core of ridging over the southeast US will provide more capping from dry air aloft mixing down to the surface in subsiding air underneath the ridge, keeping shower/storm chances lower than yesterday. However, a 25% to 35% chance of showers/storms will still be present on the western edge of the expanded ridge from the Marfa Plateau through Culberson County, Guadalupes, and western Eddy County. Most likely window for storms is 12 pm through 9 pm. Storms will likely peak depending on when timing and location of disturbances aloft on the western "ring of fire" interact with heating of elevated terrain to provide focus for lift and moisture for storm formation, as well as any residual outflow. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated. Model forecast soundings show values of DCAPE largely around 1000 J/kg and PWAT split between above and below 1.25", suggesting only a minor flash flooding and strong wind threat, with no widespread severe weather expected. In association with increased troughing over the western CONUS flattening the expanding ridge, highs will not be much different than yesterday, 95F-100F, 85F-90F higher elevations, and 100F-105F northeast Permian Basin and along the Rio Grande. South/southeast winds again increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon through late evening before decreasing, limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 65F-75F range, 60F-65F Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.

Warm weather persists tomorrow, while the continued westward expansion of the flattened ridge will maintain a gradual cooling and drying trend through the end of the week. Highs largely in the 95F-100F range, 85F-90F higher elevations, and 100F-105F along the Rio Grande will be accompanied by near zero rain chances areawide. Even high-res CAMs show little in the way of storms apart from a few showers over western higher terrain in the afternoon/evening. Additionally, model soundings indicate even more dry air mixing down to the surface tomorrow, limiting near surface moisture convergence even near any residual outflow boundaries. However, the afternoon increase in south/southeast winds to 15 to 25 mph persisting in the late evening will continue to keep lows tomorrow night similar to tonight. One more day of relatively dry weather is expected before the weather becomes more unsettled. More on that in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Warm and relatively dry weather closes the end of this week, before rain chances increase this weekend. Mid to upper ridging continues to expand west Friday through Saturday from the southeast US, although flattening of the ridge will persist from increased troughing over the western CONUS. The accompanying large scale sinking and drying motion will maintain near zero rain chances across the area, apart from low to medium (25% to 35%) shower/storm chances over the northwest portions of the SE NM plains through Culberson County Friday evening. Troughing flattening the ridge keeps highs in the 85F-95F range, 100F-105F along the Rio Grande, with lows still largely falling into the 65F-75F range, 60F-65F range Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Troughing starts to develop east over the Rockies and Central Great Plains this weekend, further flattening the ridge and providing increasing lift and moisture convergence aloft for higher rain chances. Additionally, a cold front near the surface will attempt to progress southeast over the area in association with this mid to upper trough, although highs and lows will remain similar to the previous day. PoPs increase above 35% for most of the area northwest of Terrell County into the southeast Permian Basin late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, then across the Big Bend into most of the Permian Basin Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

Uncertainty remains high in the long term regarding temperatures and position of a cold front that will attempt to develop southeast through the area late weekend through early next week. Highs early next week continue to trend up from previous runs. Rather than falling below 85F, highs in most recent runs largely remain in the 85F-95F range, 95F-100F for usual warmer spots of the Rio Grande Basin, and 75F-80F higher elevations. Model frontal analyses indicate the cold front may not be able to clear the area, with no significant northerly/northeasterly wind shift that would indicate a frontal passage. This is likely to maintain an unsettled weather pattern extending into next week. By the middle of next week, ensembles indicate a 35% to 55% chance of rainfall totals at least 0.25" to 0.50" from the Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin, with a signal for another round of potentially heavy rain from the middle to late portion of next week with higher end percentile rainfall at least 1". This still could change, and we will continue to monitor trends and timing for messaging any possible flash flooding risk. 75th and higher percentile shear also gradually increases above 25 knots by middle to late next week, so we will also have to watch for any severe storm risk, especially during this portion of the year as we head into the secondary autumn severe weather season.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions for most terminals throughout the TAF period. There is a very low (10% to 15%) chance of a stray storm at CNM between the beginning of the period this afternoon and 03Z-05Z tonight. South/southeast winds increase to 15 to 25 mph for terminals from beginning of the period this afternoon, before decreasing by 03Z-06Z tonight. South/southeast winds again gust above 15 mph for terminals northeast of the Pecos River from 14Z tomorrow morning through end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 95 70 97 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 86 65 87 / 10 10 0 10 Hobbs 69 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.