textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Temperatures remain well above normal through the early part of the week, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures start to cool slightly by the middle of the week, with low (generally 20-40%) rain chances returning to mainly eastern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Water vapor imagery shows evidence of an upper-level ridge axis centered over the Arizona/California border, leaving southeast New Mexico and west Texas under northwest flow aloft. This is expected to persist throughout the day today, allowing for another day of near-record highs as afternoon temperatures are forecast to top out into the mid 80s to low 90s. There is a medium chance (~60%) of the previous record high at least being tied at Midland International Air and Space Port (KMAF). For reference, the previous record high at KMAF is 89F (current forecast is 86F), set back in 2006. It may take a bit of work to at least tie that record, but it is possible given clear skies, northwest flow aloft, dry conditions, and southerly surface winds. The NBM 75th percentile shows a high of 91F, whereas the NBM 25th percentile shows a high of 86F. In addition to the well above normal temperatures, surface lee troughing will bring breezy conditions across the western high terrain and Lower Trans-Pecos today.

Record "warm low" temperatures are also possible Sunday night. The previous record at KMAF is 53F, set back in 2020 (current forecast is 55F). High temperatures on Monday top out 1-3 degrees warmer than Sunday's, thanks to the upper-level ridge axis shifting east (though the amplitude of the ridge weakens a bit) and low-level thermal ridging along the axis of a lee trough. This would set other record high temperatures on Monday as the previous record high at KMAF is 86F, set back in 1986. Surface lee troughing yields breezy conditions across much of the eastern Permian Basin/Lower Trans- Pecos and portions of Eddy County on Monday as well. Dry conditions persist in the short term period. Greening

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

By Tuesday, an upper-level system moves eastward from the Four Corners area towards the Central Plains. As a result, a surface trough develops, causing breezy southwesterly to westerly winds to develop across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. These downsloping winds help keep temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s across much of the area. Wednesday morning, a weak front pushes southward into our area, which will drop highs back into the mid-to- upper 70s and low 80s for most locations (upper 80s and low 90s closer to the Rio Grande). Rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday have continued to trend lower given the northward displacement of the best lift and the eastward displacement of the best moisture. Only low (mainly 10-30%) chances are maintained for far eastern portions of the area.

Troughing persists over the western CONUS during the latter half of the week and into the weekend. This keep our area under southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, the best moisture continues to stay just east of our area. Nevertheless, guidance suggests shortwaves within the flow aloft may interact with enough moisture to allow for some low (20-40%) rain chances through the latter half of the week and this weekend, particularly in our easternmost counties (i.e. locations closer to the highest-quality moisture). Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period, but gradually trend cooler by the middle part of the week through the weekend.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to be light (10kts or less) throughout most of this TAF period, except for at KFST where sustained winds of 10-15kts are possible after 00Z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 88 50 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 85 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 56 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 49 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 86 46 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 86 56 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 89 52 90 55 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.