textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 102 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 - A dangerous winter storm, accompanied by freezing rain, sleet, and snow, will continue to cause widespread travel disruptions and infrastructure impacts through Sunday morning.

- Dangerous temperatures and wind chills as low as 10 below zero or more into early next week could result in hypothermia for animals and people.

- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes and water damage as temperatures remain below freezing into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A dangerous cold and winter storm event continues to impact southeast New Mexico and a good portion of west Texas this afternoon. An arctic airmass has become firmly entrenched over much of region with temperatures in the teens and the 20s across all areas except for portions of the Big Bend and Rio Grande where temperatures are in the 30s and 40s. Snyder has actually dropped to 9 degrees as of noon CST. Radar as of midday shows heavier bands of sleet and snow lifting over southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and Upper Trans Pecos region, while light snow flurries are occurring over most of the rest of the areas in the sub- freezing airmass.

Short range model and CAM solutions remain in good agreement with bringing another wave of wintry precipitation this afternoon into this evening, with one last round coming in along the base of the approaching trough axis overnight into early Sunday morning. The KMAF 18Z sounding still shows a fairly impressive warm nose with temperatures around 6-7 C near and just above 800 mb. This warm layer should gradually cool this evening into late tonight, but until then a wintry mix of sleet and potentially some bands of freezing rain may still occur at times this afternoon, with freezing rain potential more likely further south of I-20 and I-10. A mix of sleet and snow will occur across the rest of southeast NM and the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening before precipitation mostly transitions to snow overnight into early Sunday morning. The exception will be portions of our southwest mountains/Big Bend area where a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow may continue into Sunday morning. Ice accumulations of 0.1-0.2" may be possible along the southwest mountains Van Horn corridor, and generally less than 0.1 inch further east. Total snow/sleet accumulations are generally forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches over the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos region, and Davis Mountains. Higher totals up to 3 to 6 inches will be possible over the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Guadalupe Mountains in closer proximity to the passing trough tonight/early Sunday morning. Snow/sleet totals generally average less than 1" once you get south of I-10 and the Davis Mountains. The Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect through Sunday morning. Precipitation should end by early Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the wintry weather potential, we still expect a prolonged period of dangerous cold lasting through early Tuesday morning. Actual lows ranging from 5-10 degrees are forecast tonight in the Guadalupe Mountains, portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, with readings in the teens stretching as far south as the Lower Trans Pecos and northern Big Bend. Wind chills as low as around -5 F will impact the Permian Basin and far southeast New Mexico tonight, with single digits reaching into the Trans Pecos and southwest mountains. Sub- freezing temperatures will persist on Sunday with highs only reaching into the 20s down to along the I-10 corridor, with warmer readings in the 40s and 50s down into the southern Big Bend. Clearing skies Sunday night should result in the coldest temperatures we have seen in a long time with readings in the single digits over northern portions of the region and potentially down to around zero over the northern Permian Basin/northern Lea county. Readings into the teens and 20s stretch through the rest of the area Sunday night. Wind chills will be even lower in the zero to -10 F range over southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin and in the single digits and teens over much of the rest of the region Sunday night. Extreme Cold Warnings remain in effect for much of the forecast area, with a Cold Weather Advisory continuing down into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region. Will also need to monitor for potential freezing fog given ice and snow left over on the ground.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast period. Temperatures look to remain below freezing along and north of I-10 on Monday. Weak downslope flow finally develops Tuesday which should finally help the melting process. Highs look to recover into the 30s/40s for most locations. That warming trend continues Wednesday and Thursday before another strong cold front arrives Friday. A weak passing system may bring a low (20-30%) chance of light rain/light snow Friday and Friday night but some of the latest solutions show better moisture/lift staying to our south, so it is possible we remain dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

IFR CIGs continue across the terminals and will prevail through the period. FZFG has been prevalent at FST, though it is beginning to lift. A moderate to heavy band of precipitation (mainly a mix of sleet and snow) is expected to develop and impact terminals this afternoon into the early evening hours. Based off of previous bands, opted to go with a TEMPO of LIFR VIS and CIGs. Guidance is also showing a secondary moderate to heavy band after 06Z, however, confidence is low on where this band develops. Northeast winds (10-15 kts sustained winds) expected to prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 9 25 2 25 / 90 30 0 0 Carlsbad 11 26 6 26 / 90 60 0 0 Dryden 19 35 16 36 / 80 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 13 26 12 30 / 70 40 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 8 23 14 29 / 100 70 0 0 Hobbs 8 25 4 27 / 90 40 0 0 Marfa 21 39 16 43 / 90 60 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 10 25 6 27 / 80 30 0 0 Odessa 10 25 8 27 / 80 30 0 0 Wink 12 26 9 28 / 80 50 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell- Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell- Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward- Winkler.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.