textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Medium to high (40-70%) rain chances continue for areas south of the I-10 corridor today and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday increasing to near normal by Wednesday.

- Rain chances return Friday and Saturday and a few storms could become severe.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A weak disturbance moving across far West Texas is causing some light showers, and even a couple of lightning strikes, this afternoon. Rainfall amounts of up to a couple of tenths of an inch have been reported from some AWOS sites in the Big Bend which though not significant, is still helpful. Models show these showers weakening overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes but cannot rule out a few light sprinkles in the Permian Basin. Lows tonight drop into the 40s before temperatures rebound into the upper 60s and 70s tomorrow. Subsidence on the back side of the departing disturbance brings drier conditions Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

An upper jet max and associated trough arrive Tuesday bringing another round of showers. This time convection will be centered farther north than we are seeing today with most activity stretching from southeastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin, instead of concentrated in the Big Bend. The increase in clouds will provide slightly cooler temperatures and there probably won't be enough instability for severe storms to be a threat. Temperatures warm back up to near normal Wednesday and Thursday as a broad and flat ridge transits the intermountain region. Friday an upper low moves into the West Coast, backing upper winds from the southwest and sharpening a dryline in the basin. This system is more dynamic than the trough expected Tuesday and it appears there will be an increasing threat for severe storms Friday into Saturday. This is about 24 hours delayed from what the models were showing yesterday. Will have to wait a few more model runs to better understand the details of this system late in the week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions and modest easterly winds continue the next 24 hours. Scattered light showers are possible in the Trans Pecos region but should not impact aviation ops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 44 72 48 67 / 0 0 10 40 Carlsbad 42 69 47 69 / 0 10 50 60 Dryden 51 69 52 73 / 50 0 20 50 Fort Stockton 48 69 51 73 / 40 10 30 60 Guadalupe Pass 41 61 47 65 / 10 10 50 50 Hobbs 39 69 45 64 / 0 0 20 50 Marfa 35 63 41 73 / 20 10 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 45 70 50 66 / 0 0 10 50 Odessa 46 70 50 66 / 0 0 20 50 Wink 45 70 49 69 / 10 0 30 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.