textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Warmer and drier weather begins today and persists towards the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers/storms return Thursday night and continue each day through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A quiet pattern will return to the area for the middle to end of the week, following the unsettled weather yesterday and earlier this week. As storms move northeast and begins to dissipate over west Texas and Lea County, lows will bottom out in the 50s to mid 60s F, with coolest temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s F over the Davis and northern Guadalupe Mountains and northern Lea County. A diffuse dryline will continue to be situated over western to central parts of the area, yielding dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s F east of the dryline and in the mid 40s to lower 50s F west of the dryline, with overall light, humid, southeast upslope flow. This will result in a chance for reduced visibilities in fog/mist/haze over the eastern and central Permian Basin into Terrell County this morning, before low clouds lift. Then, highs are forecast to rise into the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations, and 90s F Rio Grande basins today, with a 25% to 35% chance of isolated showers/storms forming near the dryline interface with heating of elevated terrain of the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. Tonight, warmer daytime temperatures will allow lows to settle a few degrees warmer than this morning, meaning mid 50s to mid 60s F for most. Tomorrow, only a 5% to 10% chance of a stray daytime shower/storm is expected. This will be due to building weak ridging that allows highs to rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid to upper 90s F Rio Grande basins, and triple digits from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, with 70s to lower 80s F only for the highest elevations of the Guadalupes into Lower Trans Pecos. The omega-block pattern will mean deepening troughing over the southwest US will send a series of mid to upper disturbances east beginning tomorrow evening, with accompanying deep moisture convergence and lift for a 25% to 30% chance of showers/storms to develop over the Guadalupes into SE NM plains. Even so, lows will still settle a few degrees warmer than previous nights as warmer temperatures reached during the day take longer to cool off to average overnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft becomes prevalent over the region by Thursday night which will bring a low (10-30%) chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms over far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Rain/storm chances spread eastward into portions of far southeast New Mexico and west Texas by Friday afternoon as the dryline sets up over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Long-range guidance has sufficient deep-layer shear (30-40 kts), ample instability (1000- 2500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and high Precipitable Water values (PWATs). This signals a potential threat for a few severe storms to occur. Some of the long-range solutions may be overestimating the amount of the instability across the region due to broken/overcast high cloud cover. Therefore, uncertainty still remains in the severity of activity at this time. High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for most areas, besides spots along the Presidio Valley and Rio Grande ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s.

Saturday, weaker westerly to southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the region. At the surface, the dryline will be farther to the east compared to Friday. With the weaker forcing both at the surface and upper levels, storm coverage will be isolated from the Lower Trans Pecos to eastern half of the Permian Basin. Warmer high temperatures are anticipated in the upper 80s to upper 90s regionwide. By Sunday, an upper-level ridge builds over the area promoting drier conditions and similar temperatures as Saturday. Cluster analysis reinforces this dry, steady temperature pattern through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Following MVFR or lower conditions in remnant showers/storms late this evening/early this morning, VFR conditions are forecast for terminals until 08Z-11Z this morning. From 11Z-17Z, there is a chance of MVFR or lower conditions in regions of low stratus and/or BR/FG/HZ for terminals over the eastern and central Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau. VFR conditions will then return for the rest of the TAF period. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots at terminals are forecast throughout the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 63 86 65 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 85 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 87 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 87 63 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 79 61 81 63 / 0 0 10 30 Hobbs 83 58 85 61 / 0 10 10 20 Marfa 84 53 88 55 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 63 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 82 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.