textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 153 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions persist across southeast New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.

- Another storm system pushes in Friday, bringing low to medium (20-60%) rain chances during the afternoon. A couple of storms may be strong to severe over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

- Below to near-normal temperatures this weekend and through the first half of next week behind a cold front Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Storm activity from Wednesday evening has shifted east of our region as a Pac front sweeps in. The upper level shortwave associated with this system departs northeast, arriving near the Great Lakes region later this afternoon. Despite the front, highs this afternoon will generally range within the 80s, with a few areas along the Rio Grande reaching the 90s. Breezy winds, dry fuels, and low relative humidity values have prompted a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through this evening over southeast New Mexico. Otherwise, weather over our region will be relatively quiet today. Tonight, temperatures west of the dryline dip into the 50s over southeast New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain in west Texas. East of the dryline, the rest of the region will see lows in the to 60s.

Our next storm system translates across the Intermountain West overnight Thursday, entering the Great Plains Friday morning. Meanwhile, this aids in the development of a lee trough and its associated frontal boundaries. Friday afternoon, a dryline looks to sharpen up near the TX/NM border, extending toward the Big Bend in a slight northeast-southwest orientation. Similar to Wednesday, shower/storm development is likely ahead of the dryline Friday afternoon and evening. Current rain chances range from 20-60% Friday afternoon, increasing with eastward extent. A couple of storms may be strong to severe over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. At the moment, ensemble guidance suggests the main threats with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds. A Pac front associated with this system looks to push in Friday evening and into the overnight hours, allowing for additional shower/storm development. Otherwise, temperatures Friday afternoon are expected to top out in the 80s to 90s (mainly near and along the river valleys).

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The Long Term Period begins with a cold front sweeping southward across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Behind this front comes breezy northeasterly to easterly winds Saturday, along with much cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. Highs Saturday top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s for most of the area. Meanwhile, the front gradually pushes shower and thunderstorm chances farther south across the Lower Trans-Pecos and Big Bend through the day Saturday. Rain chances for these locations through Sunday morning range from 20-50%. Shortwaves in the flow aloft, coupled with a nearby jet, allow rain chances (generally in the 20-50% range, up to 60%) to continue across mainly westernmost zones Sunday through the early part of next week. Highs Sunday top out in the mid-to-upper 60s, with 50s and low 60s in the higher terrain. Temperatures slowly trend up through the beginning of next week as weak ridging becomes reestablished over the region. Nevertheless, highs remain below normal through the beginning of next week, eventually becoming near normal (mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s) by the middle of next week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light southwest-to- west surface flow will prevail, w/clearing skies overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

ERCs remain near or above the 75th percentile across much of the region, particularly for westernmost portions of the area. Meanwhile, min RHs once again drop below 15% for many locations this afternoon and evening. While winds will be weaker today than yesterday, breezy (15-25 mph) winds will overlap critical min RHs in southeast New Mexico, yielding Near-Critical conditions. Because of this and considering the very dry fuels in southeast New Mexico, we have issued a Red Flag Warning across southeast New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains for this afternoon and evening. Elevated to Near-Critical conditions persist Friday afternoon and evening for these same locations (mainly driven by critical min RHs). By Saturday morning, a front sweeps across the area, bringing in below- normal temperatures and improving min RHs (although northeasterly to easterly winds behind the front will be breezy).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 63 86 52 / 0 0 60 70 Carlsbad 87 55 89 51 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 50 50 Fort Stockton 89 64 89 56 / 0 10 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 76 55 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 52 87 47 / 0 0 10 30 Marfa 81 50 83 47 / 0 0 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 86 63 87 53 / 0 10 40 60 Odessa 86 63 87 53 / 0 10 40 60 Wink 88 59 89 53 / 0 0 20 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.