textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Periods of hazardous winds are still expected in the Guadalupe/ Delawares today through Friday evening.

- Dry, strong winds will also produce elevated to near-critical fire danger today, prompting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement over southeast New Mexico, portions of the Trans-Pecos, and the Davis Mountains.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, followed by a cooling trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Strong southwesterly flow continues aloft as a large upper-level trough lingers over the western CONUS, accompanied by a pair of shortwaves. At present, the jet core associated with the larger trough resides over New Mexico, spanning northeastward in the direction of the northeastern CONUS. This has allowed for a persistent mountain wave signature and strong winds over the Guadalupe/Delawares and surrounding plains. As such, a High Wind Warning remains in effect over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, where winds may gust up to 75 mph through this evening. Such winds may also kick up some blowing dust, leading to a occasional reductions in visibility. Dry, gusty winds keep fire weather concerns elevated, but not to the same degree as the previous days, prompting a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement over similar areas through this evening.

One of the aforementioned shortwaves is currently passing over the Four Corners, making its way toward the central and northern Plains. This shortwave has lead to the development of a surface low in the lee of the Rockies, which will drive a weak cold front across our region this morning. Westerly winds look to become breezy across much of the region late this morning through this evening, though should largely stay near to just below Wind Advisory criteria. Despite the front, downsloping winds keep today's highs in the 60s in southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas, 70s at most locations, and 80s near the Rio Grande. Tonight, temperatures cool into the 40s.

Friday, another shortwave trough rolls over the southwestern US into the central Plains. This looks to be the last in a parade of shortwaves that have brought windy conditions to our region this week. However, models show this particular shortwave taking a slightly more southerly track compared to Thursday's. Consequently, winds Friday are forecast to be stronger than the previous day's. This shall keep a strong jet core in close proximity to our region, bringing about another round of gusty winds. Therefore, a High Wind Watch is currently in place over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains for Friday morning through Friday evening, with gusts possibly reaching up to 70 mph. Winds may meet Wind Advisory criteria over the adjacent plains in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Breezy winds are expected almost everywhere else Friday afternoon. Temperatures Friday are forecast to be a touch warmer than Thursday's. Given warm, dry, and gusty conditions, Friday features a renewed concern for elevated fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch shall be in place over southeastern New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, the Davis Mountains, and portions of the Permian Basin for Friday. Stay tuned for further updates!

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The final shortwave mentioned at the end of the short term period aids in the development of a surface low and associated cold front that looks to sweep into our region Friday night. Calmer winds and cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. Lows Friday night slump mainly into the 30s and 40s. Surface high pressure sets up within the post-frontal air mass Saturday. Afternoon highs generally reach the 60s, then plunge into the upper 20s (northern counties) and 30s Saturday night. Upper-level flow becomes northwesterly Sunday as a ridge begins to build in to our southwest. This allows Sunday's highs to hover within the 50s to 60s. The advancing upper ridge promotes a warming trend heading into a new work week. Afternoon temperatures predominantly crest in the 60s Monday, 70s Tuesday, then 80s Wednesday. There are hints of breezy conditions redeveloping Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as the result of lee cyclogenesis and subsequent cold front passage. More details to follow in the coming days!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR remains at all terminals for the period. Sustained winds and gusts pick up and persist through the afternoon before decreasing tonight. Lofted dust may reduce visibilities at times, but not including BLDU in current issuance due to low confidence.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions develop today over southeast New Mexico, portions of the Trans-Pecos, and the Davis Mountains. Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds are expected to continue through this evening in these locations. Coinciding RH values will bottom out between 15-25% by the afternoon. Given these parameters, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be overly the aforementioned areas this afternoon.

Winds Friday look a bit stronger than today's, and Min RHs are forecast to be lower (in the 10-15% range). Because of this, additional fire weather products may be needed Friday, particularly for the same locations that received Red Flag Warnings during previous days. Friday night, a front starts to make its way through the area. This yields near-normal temperatures through the weekend, which will (along with relatively lighter winds) help reduce fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 42 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 42 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 83 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 47 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 41 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 40 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 68 35 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 71 45 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 70 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 42 73 38 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.