textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected from late this morning through early this evening across the southeast New Mexico Plains and portions of the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos region where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

- Record high temperatures are expected today. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend with continued dry weather conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

WV imagery this morning shows a broad, upper ridge spanning the western CONUS, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. At the surface, mesoanalysis shows a surface trough moving through the Texas Panhandle into north Texas, and this will increase westerlies once mixing commences after sunup. Cloud cover should be a little less than yesterday, and will combine with downslope warming to bring the warmest temperatures yet this year, as highs top out ~ 20-25 F above climatology, making it feel more like late May than late February. NBM has been inching up on highs for today, and the record high for KMAF today is 86. This is low-hanging fruit, to say the least, as this afternoon will be pushing 90, and MOS numbers bottom out at 89. The only downside to today will be critical fire wx conditions as a result of the heat and lack of moisture. See fire wx discussion below for more details.

A weak Pac front will move into the area late this afternoon/tonight, followed by a cold front Thursday. Despite this, coming down from such pleasant highs this afternoon, overnight minimums will average around 20 F above normal.

Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will shave ~ 5-6 F off today's temperatures, with highs only coming in 15 F or so above normal.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Saturday before upper level winds transition more zonal Sunday into Monday. A surface trough will develop across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas Friday through Sunday. Low level thermal ridging will enhance along this feature and temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend. Highs this weekend will warm well into the 80s over much of the region, with some locations in the Lower Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande/ Big Bend reaching into the 90s. Dry weather conditions can be expected each day through the weekend.

A pattern shift finally looks to occur going into the early part of next week as an upper-level low deepens over the vicinity of the Desert Southwest and/or Four Corners region Monday into Tuesday. A shortwave trough passing across the central Plains may also send a cold front southward into eastern New Mexico and west Texas early next week, though there is some variability in model guidance on how far south this boundary progresses. The cold front may at least make it into the vicinity of the southeast New Mexico plains and Permian Basin Monday before perhaps pushing further and stretching over the Trans Pecos region and Guadalupe/Davis Mountains by Tuesday. Dry weather conditions are forecast to persist into Monday before moisture increases within southwesterly flow aloft along the vicinity of the front late Monday night into Tuesday. A low chance (20-30%) of rain showers returns to the forecast over far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler early next week, with highs on Tuesday forecast to range in the mid 60s to lower 70s north of I-20 and in the mid 70s to the 80s over the southern half of the forecast area. Morning lows will continue to range in the 40s and 50s through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Breezy conditions hold on through the afternoon with gusts around 25-30kts. Gusts decrease tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Westerly to northwesterly 20 foot winds will become breezy across the southeast New Mexico plains, much of the western Permian Basin, and the Upper Trans Pecos region this afternoon. Record- breaking temperatures are also forecast this afternoon with minimum RH values dropping to 10-13 percent over these locations. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the above mentioned locations from late this morning through early this evening given RFTI values up to 4-7 driven by both wind and critically low RH. Windy conditions are anticipated in the mountain areas again today, but RH values may struggle to get below 15 percent in the higher elevations today, so we opted to keep the mountain locations out of the Red Flag Warning today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 53 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 54 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 61 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 59 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 54 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 55 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 81 46 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 57 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 89 57 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 90 55 83 47 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea.