textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame.

- Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin Sunday and Monday.

- Rain and storm chances increase (30-70% chances) by the middle to latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The biggest story this weekend will be continued hot daytime temperatures, strong south/southwest winds, and fire weather risk (see Fire Weather Discussion). VIS/IR satellite imagery this afternoon indicates mostly clear skies apart from the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, and this is expected to persist through tonight into tomorrow, with only a stray (<5%) chance of showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County . Highs again rise into the 90s to lower 100s F, 80s F higher elevations, and 105F to 110F for the Big Bend. Hazardous heat is expected for the Big Bend central and northern portions of the forecast area where Heat Risk will rise to level 3. Make sure to drink plenty of water and minimize time spent outdoors! South/southwest winds increase over the area this afternoon as a dryline sharpens over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Dew point temperatures increase tonight from the 20s and 30s F into the 50s to lower 60s F over much of the Permian Basin into Terrell County, limiting overnight cooling and preventing lows from falling below 70F in the more humid air. Farther west where dew point temperatures will remain below 45F, lows in the mid to upper 50s F higher elevations and northern Lea County to lower 60s F elsewhere are expected. Tomorrow we can expect much the same in terms of temperatures, but with stronger south/southwest winds as troughing over the Intermountain West intensifies and results in stronger south/southwest winds overspreading the area in the mid to upper troposphere and mixing down to the surface. The stronger winds and continued hot temperatures will increase the fire weather risk, especially for regions west of the dryline such as Culberson County, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin. Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight as the summer-like weather pattern continues, although there is up to 10% to 15% chance of shower/storms over the northern Permian Basin early Monday morning. Hot weather with low (<30%) rain chances then persists through early next week. However, cooler and more unsettled weather looks increasingly likely by the middle of next week. Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Dry southwesterly flow aloft will continue across southeast New Mexico and west Texas on Monday ahead of a shortwave trough lifting over the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Surface low pressure remains over the vicinity of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/TX panhandles on Monday with the associated trough axis extending down into the Permian Basin and Big Bend. Another hot and breezy day can be expected across the forecast area with high temperatures reaching into the 90s to around 102 degrees for most. A few locations along the Rio Grande will top out between 105 and 110 degrees. The dryline should mix to the east of our forecast area by Monday afternoon, so rain/storm chances appear to be nil across our region. A cold front is forecast to sink southward through the Texas panhandle and South Plains region Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the latest forecast guidance stalls this boundary over the northeastern Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains by Tuesday afternoon as surface low pressure tends to develop over southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos region. Temperatures have subsequently trended a little warmer on Tuesday afternoon for most, with highs once again reaching into the 90s over much of the region, with locations along the Rio Grande ranging between 101 and 109 degrees. The dryline may extend south from the stalled boundary into the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Tuesday, where at least isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening hours.

A more unsettled weather pattern will take shape as we go into the middle to latter part of the week. An upper-level trough will deepen over the southwestern U.S. Wednesday into Thursday with an upper-level low potentially developing over the vicinity of the Baja by Friday. Shortwave impulses embedded within the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will periodically move across southeast New Mexico and west Texas ahead of this feature through the middle to latter half of the week. Low level flow also transitions more southeasterly to easterly over much of the region as the aforementioned cold front advances into the forecast area on Wednesday and essentially stalls out over western and southern parts of our CWA Thursday into Friday. Low level moisture increases with this pattern with dewpoints back into the 40s and 50s for much of the area, and even into the lower to mid 60s over our eastern zones, including the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Ascent provided by the periodic impulses will combine with increased deep layer moisture/precipitable water values along the stalled front to bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-Friday. Rain and storm chances currently look to be most favored late Wednesday into Thursday when the most prolific shortwave impulse moves over our region. Instability and shear parameters could support organized storms and potentially at least a low end severe threat both days, though confidence is still low this far out. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding may also be a concern late Wednesday into the day Thursday with the increased moisture and stalled boundary in place over the CWA. Cooler temperatures return behind the front as we go into the latter part of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas this weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures, 20 foot winds over 20 mph, and extremely low RH values around 5% will result in critical fire weather conditions over the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent Sacramento Foothills Sunday and Monday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these fire weather zones Sunday, with a Fire Weather Watch Monday given the very dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentiles) and RFTI values between 5-8. Elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions can be expected over the remainder of the area through early next week. Cooler temperatures and improved RH values return during the middle to latter portion of the week along with increased rain and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout the period. Sustained south/southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 knots at terminals by 19Z-21Z, gusting to 20 to 25 knots. Winds decrease but remain southerly 02Z-07Z, further decreasing 09Z-12Z before winds again increase 10 to 15 knots into the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 69 98 70 100 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 64 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 99 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 95 59 93 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 55 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 64 97 63 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.