textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1118 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures start to cool slightly by the middle of next week, with low (generally 20-40%) rain chances returning to mainly eastern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 142 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The forecast is on track for near-record highs on Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level high over Baja provides northwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs this weekend are forecast to be in the mid-to- upper 80s for most, with 90s across portions of the Trans Pecos and near/along the Rio Grande. On Sunday, surface lee trough is expected to bring breezy conditions across the western higher terrain. This aforementioned upper-level weather pattern will keep us dry in the short term. Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 142 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Some uncertainty remains Monday morning as to where an approaching front will stall out. The GFS continues to suggest the front will reach the northern Permian Basin before stalling and getting pushed north again, while the European still indicates the front will not reach our area in the first place. Despite this continued uncertainty in deterministic guidance, spread within the NBM is decreasing for Monday's highs, and temperatures look to top out 15-20 degrees above normal (80s for most, upper 70s in the northern Basin, and 90s along the Rio Grande). Southwesterly to westerly winds become breezy again Tuesday as a surface trough develops ahead of an approaching upper-level system. As a result, warm temperatures (similar to Monday's, albeit warmer in the northern Basin) persist.

The aforementioned upper-level system (and the best lift associated with it) looks to pass north of our area. Meanwhile, the best moisture will remain to the east. As a result, rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday have tended to trend lower overall, with the best chances (20-40%) being for our easternmost counties. However, guidance indicates a front will push southward into our area Wednesday, bringing highs down into the mid-to-upper 70s for most locations (80s in the typical warm spots). By the latter half of the week, we remain under quasi-zonal to southwesterly flow aloft, and models indicate additional shortwaves will approach the region. As a result, low (generally 20-40%) rain chances are maintained for easternmost portions of the area going into the weekend. That being said, questions still remain as to how far west the best moisture (and therefore the better rain chances) will actually get. Trends will be monitored closely. Otherwise, temperatures remain above normal through the rest of the week, though they stay slightly cooler than this weekend's temperatures will be.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions persist through much of the period. Winds will generally remain light and variable. Some models indicate low clouds coming out of the southeast toward the vicinity of MAF, FST, and potentially PEQ near sunrise tomorrow. However, confidence is currently low regarding how far the cloud deck shall extend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 85 51 80 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 87 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 91 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 49 86 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 86 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 55 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 52 89 50 86 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.