textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Scattered showers with embedded heavier storms 6 pm this evening through midnight for the SE NM plains into Rio Grande basin. No widespread flash flooding is expected.

- 50% to 75% chance of rainfall at least 0.25"-0.50", with up to a tenth of an inch very likely (up to 90%) elsewhere where rain falls.

- Strong west winds with gusts up to 50 mph will pose hazardous travel conditions for the Guadalupe Pass Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

- Cooler weather (highs below 70F north of the Rio Grande basin, lows below 50F north of the Rio Grande basin) Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1247 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Another mild day with highs rising into the upper 60s to 70s F is in store preceding unsettled weather tonight. A mid to upper disturbance stretching from the Great Basin into northern MX plateau and propagating east this afternoon/evening will spread lift and focusing of moisture out ahead of it, while a backdoor cold front develops in from the northeast. Both systems aid shower/storm development by late afternoon/evening to our west, with activity then moving east/northeast into the forecast area. High-res CAMs depict scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms across the SE NM plains into Rio Grande basin 6 pm this evening through midnight. Ensembles indicate highest rain chances (45% to 60%) and accumulations (50% to 75% chance of rainfall at least 0.25"-0.50") southwest of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau from 9 pm to midnight. Highest rainfall amounts are likely from the SE NM plains into Marfa Plateau. WPC does not have us outlooked in a risk for heavy rain and no widespread flooding is expected, so impacts will be limited to ponding of water in low- lying areas and near sloped terrain. Scattered showers continue to move east/northeast into the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau from early Saturday morning through sunrise, while diminishing in intensity over time. Prior to weakening, heavier rain and gusty winds in storms are possible due to elevated instability. Despite low CAPE below 500 J/kg, SRH above 80 m2/s2 in forecast soundings may be sufficient for an isolated strong storm with damaging winds in the Rio Grande basin before storms weaken after midnight. Lows fall into upper 40s to mid 50s F tonight as low cloud cover limits overnight cooling.

Following the first disturbance developing east and flattening out, an upper low forms and intensifies over CO/NM into the northern TX Panhandle late Saturday afternoon, with its effects continuing through Sunday. Winds shift from southerly to west/southwest in response. Guidance and ensembles continue to depict sustained winds 30-35 mph with gusts up to to 45-50 mph for the Guadalupes/Delawares, and 25-35 mph winds elsewhere. Duration of strong winds still do not appear sufficient to warrant issuance of high wind products. However, hazardous travel can be expected Saturday through Saturday night for the Guadalupe Pass as a result. Highs a few degrees cooler than today are forecast behind the dissipating backdoor cold front (60s to lower 70s F lowlands, upper 50s F higher elevations), while lows remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s F range overnight as 25-35 mph westerly winds persist and limit overnight cooling. Once the disturbance is east of the area, a Pacific cold front clears the area from the northwest, shifting winds to northwesterly. This brings highs down a few more degrees into the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations and northern Lea County into northern Permian Basin, with 70s F becoming confined to the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County. Lows Sunday night also drop below 50F north of the Rio Grande basin and into the upper 30s F for higher elevations and northern Lea County as winds decrease and become more northerly. Temperatures cool even more to start the week and warm weather will not be quick to return. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1247 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

With continued northerly winds Monday, CAA behind Sunday's Pacific cold front prevents highs from rising above 60F north of the Rio Grande basin, with highs remaining in the upper 40s F for higher elevations and low-lying areas of the SE NM plains and northeast Permian Basin. Temperatures will feel more typical of late December than mid-November, while lows will continue to retain the more familiar early November-like "mildness" of above freezing albeit chilly temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s F. Mid-level ridging over the Southern Great Plains will subtly build back in next week, while an overall longwave troughing pattern persists over the southern US, especially for the Pacific SW into Desert SW. This keeps temperatures below average through the week, with highs remaining in the 50s and 60s F, 40s F higher elevations Tuesday, and only warming back up into the lower to mid 60s F from Wednesday through Thursday. Low (less than 30%) rain chances are possible with a weak Pacific cold front mid-week next week, but at this time, no major impacts (whether related to rain, wind, or dust) seem apparent with any weather systems next week. Highs in the mid to upper 60s to 70s F may only return by next Friday given the mid to upper air pattern, while lows continue to fall into the 40s to lower 50s F as the dry autumn air maintains a 25F-30F diurnal range.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move across the area this morning, and will impact all terminals before they move beyond our easternmost TAF sites by 12-14Z. MVFR CIGs are still expected to develop this morning as well, with the highest confidence at MAF, HOB, and INK (and relatively lower confidence elsewhere). MVFR CIGs clear by early this afternoon. Southerly winds become southwesterly this afternoon and become breezy (with some gusts between 20-25 kts, especially at CNM and HOB).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 54 67 53 63 / 70 20 30 0 Carlsbad 52 66 48 63 / 90 0 0 0 Dryden 55 71 55 74 / 50 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 53 73 53 68 / 50 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 57 43 57 / 100 0 0 0 Hobbs 52 66 46 62 / 80 0 0 0 Marfa 46 64 44 64 / 60 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 53 68 52 64 / 100 10 10 0 Odessa 53 68 51 64 / 100 10 0 0 Wink 54 69 49 67 / 70 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.