textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through Thursday.

- Rain chances increase from west to east Friday through the weekend, with highest rain chances over our western areas Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A mid to upper level ridge currently overspreads much of the state of Texas, keeping conditions warm and dry. This afternoon, temperatures top out in the 80s for most, with upper 70s in portions of the higher terrain and Lower Trans Pecos. Tonight, expect lows to generally fall to the 50s. A similar story will play out tomorrow afternoon, ahead of our next upper level storm system. The leading edge of this system begins to approach tomorrow night, increasing lift and moisture. As such, an isolated shower/storm or two (10-20% chance) will be possible over our westernmost counties overnight Thursday. A developing lee trough will also lead to breezy southeast winds tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, lows tomorrow night drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Rain chances increase from west to east Friday and into the weekend courtesy of an upper level system approaching the area out of the Desert Southwest. Increased lift and moisture with the trough brings low (10-30%) chances for isolated showers and storms over our western counties Friday afternoon. Rain chances increase and spread eastward Friday evening into Saturday, with the best odds favoring the western half of our area. Models suggest the trough meanders near our region through early next week, eventually lifting into the central and northern Plains sometime mid week. Several disturbances passing within the trough will provide sufficient lift to result in rounds of isolated to scattered showers/storms almost areawide through Tuesday. With ridging remaining to our east, convection may struggle to maintain itself over the eastern portions of our area. Given a potential for rounds of occasionally heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding will be of concern for SE NM through the weekend, especially on Saturday. Otherwise, temperatures look to gradually cool through the course of the Long Term period due to lowering heights and an eventual cold front. As of now, highs largely in the 80s Friday are forecast to give way to highs in the 60s and 70s by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR remains for all sites. Mainly southeasterly winds with speeds around 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 58 83 60 82 / 0 0 10 20 Dryden 58 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 76 59 76 / 0 0 10 30 Hobbs 56 80 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 53 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 58 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 81 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 59 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.