textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue today, followed by "cooler" temperatures more typical of summer-time on Friday.

- A front brings low (10-20%) shower and storm chances to portions of the area this afternoon/evening. Additional scattered rain chances return Friday and Saturday with the highest chances south of I-10.

- Triple digit heat returns this weekend and continues into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The latest surface observations show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area as of midnight Thursday. Thanks to breezy westerly downslope winds and a few high level clouds, little relief is expected overnight as lows are forecast to range in the mid-to-upper 70s for most (low 80s in portions of the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande).

Upper-level ridging coupled with continued downsloping winds and the warm start to Thursday allow for temperatures to soar well above the century mark across most of the region today. Meanwhile, a surface low moves south into the Permian Basin, shifting winds to northerly across southeast New Mexico and the far northwest Permian Basin. This allows a cold front to move into the area and yields relatively cooler temperatures across these locations (mid 90s to lower triple digits). Models are now in agreement that the cold front doesn't reach our northern zones until late this afternoon/early evening, providing enough time for afternoon temperatures to climb well into the triple digits once again. For this, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for most locations as highs look similar to yesterday's. Given that temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 110 degrees across the far eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans-Pecos, and Big Bend region, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for these locations this afternoon/evening. In addition to the heat, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in and around the higher terrain this afternoon. Additional development is forecast to occur along the aforementioned cold front as it pushes into the southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos this evening. We cannot rule out a couple of storms becoming strong to severe. Given the weakly sheared environment and "inverted-V" sounding profiles, damaging winds will be the main threat.

Rain chances hang around on Friday as an upper-level disturbance moves over the region. The best chances (up to 50%) look to be in and around the higher terrain owing to easterly upslope flow. Low (10-40%) chances are expected elsewhere, especially behind the decaying cold front. Otherwise, afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 90s with the exception of some spots near/along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos reaching the triple digits. Some low-lying areas of the Big Bend can still expect to see highs topping out between 105 and 110 degrees. Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Diminishing shower/storms Friday night, followed by warmer weather Saturday. Friday evening, any ongoing convection from heating of elevated terrain and interaction with a weak cold front will begin to dissipate, with PoPs decreasing from the 25% to 35% range east of a lee trough from the Upper Trans Pecos into the Big Bend decreasing below 10% overnight. Given DCAPE values 800-1000 J/kg and steep low- level lapse rates with dew point depressions above 20F, a risk of strong winds in heaviest storms will be present, although no widespread severe weather is expected. Lows settle into the mid 60s to mid 70s F. Northerly winds veer back to southeast over the area as dew point temperatures increase back into the 55F to 65F range as the weak front washes out over the area, with more humid air making a return. Mid to upper ridging builds from the Desert SW into Intermountain West through the weekend into next week, so the "cooler" temperatures from Friday will be short-lived. Highs Saturday rise back into to 100F-105F along Pecos River valley, 105F-110F for the Presidio Valley into Big Bend, 90F-95F for higher elevations, and 95F-100F range elsewhere. Lows likewise fail to fall below 65F-70F range in coolest spots. 15% to 20% shower/storm chances are present on Saturday from heating of elevated terrain.

The main story in the long term will be hazardous heat Sunday and Monday across portions of the Permian Basin into Rio Grande basin, as well as elevated fire risk for the Guadalupes. As ridging strengthens Sunday, rain chances decrease back down to near zero. Sunday also sees the redevelopment of lee troughing developing east across the area, spreading 15 to 25 mph south/southwest, with 30 to 40 mph winds possible over peaks of the Guadalupes. Combined with highs in the 90s F and lack of recent wetting rains, this may pose risk for spread of any fires (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Highs cool by a few degrees over northern parts of the forecast area Monday as a weak cold front moves through, but hazardous heat will remain present south of the front as temperatures remain in the triple digits in the lowlands. Ridging keeps the forecast area under a mostly clear, and hot temperature pattern into the middle of next week, with occasional hazardous heat, while humid, upslope southeast winds maintain dew point temperatures in the 50s to 60s F east of lee troughing, mid 40s to mid 50s F west of troughing. This will occur concurrently with near zero rain chances due to large scale sinking and dry motion from ridging suppressing cloud and rain development. Highs will largely set up in the 95F-105F range, 110F-115F range Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Lows will continue to fall into the 65F-75F range apart from warmest regions from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. There, lows will persistently remain above the 75F-80F range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A cold front is crossing the region this afternoon with north gusty north winds behind it. The front will stall just north of KMAF/KINK over the next few hours before moving through all terminals this evening. Low confidence exists for the development of storms along the front so will leave out for now. There is also a low probability of MVFR cigs by morning at KMAF/KHOB so monitor for updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 107 72 94 71 / 0 30 30 30 Carlsbad 97 70 98 69 / 0 20 20 10 Dryden 110 76 99 72 / 20 30 40 30 Fort Stockton 105 73 98 70 / 10 30 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 92 68 90 68 / 0 30 20 10 Hobbs 93 66 94 66 / 0 20 20 10 Marfa 95 63 93 60 / 10 30 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 106 72 95 71 / 0 30 30 30 Odessa 104 72 95 70 / 0 30 20 30 Wink 103 72 98 70 / 0 30 20 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Loving- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Glasscock- Howard-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Reagan-Terrell.

NM...None.