textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Warmer today with gusty downsloping winds over the Guadalupes. Continued warm and breezy weather on Saturday.

- A weak cold front Saturday night/Sunday followed by cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, then a warming trend Tuesday into Thursday before another weak cold front returns temperatures closer to seasonable for this time of year.

- No precipitation chances throughout the period.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

WV imagery this afternoon show an upper level trough extending from the Upper Midwest down to off the Baja coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast new Mexico under zonal flow aloft. At the surface, leeside troughing on the Front Range has induced southwest to west winds across the area. This will add a downslope warming component to today's highs, although the NBM still appears too optimistic in warming things up, and will likely overshoot highs again. High winds are possible in the Guadalupes/Delawares.

Tonight, the trough moves very little...slightly east at best. A weak cold front is forecast to move through, and will combine w/skies clearing NW-SE for overnight minimums right around climatology.

Saturday, the trough drifts a little further east. Stronger leeside troughing is anticipated, generating a mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes that could result in a few hours of marginal high winds afternoon/evening. We've issued a watch for this. While minimum relativity will stay out of critical territory, these increased winds may warrant an RFD during the afternoon. Downslope warming under sunny skies should add ~ 5-7 F to today's highs, putting temperatures ~ 5-10 F above normal.

Saturday night, winds will be a bit slower to decouple, and will combine w/slightly higher dewpoints to keep overnight lows around 5 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Calmer winds return to the area later this weekend. The biggest story for late this weekend into next week will be temperatures. Aloft, weak mid to upper ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion maintains near zero precipitation chances, keeping the forecast dry. A weak cold front develops south/east through the area Saturday night into Sunday, knocking highs down 5F to 10F, translating to lower to mid 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, northern Lea County and northern Permian Basin, and upper 60s to 70s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Northerly winds shifting to northeasterly behind the cold front and dew point temperatures falling into the 20F to 25F range areawide enhancing overnight cooling allow lows to fall near to below freezing north of the Rio Grande basins, and into the upper 30s to lower 40s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and Stockton Plateau. This may be as cold as nights get for the next week. CAA persists into Monday, with highs lower to mid 60s F, upper 50s F higher elevations, mid 60s F from Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County, and upper 60s to lower 70s F from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. However, lows Monday night warm by a few degrees compared to Sunday night, allowing lows to stay above freezing over much of the northeast foothills of higher elevations, south and east Permian Basin, and points south and east of the Davis Mountains and basins of Culberson County. A warming trend ensues by Tuesday with winds shifting back to southerly and advecting in warmer air, even as dew point temperatures remain below 30F. This translates to a return to mid 60s to mid 70s F with more widespread 70s F by Wednesday, as well as lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s F areawide. Forecast grids Thursday next week indicate widespread 70s F, 60s F higher elevations, and lower 80s F for the usual warmest spots over the Big Bend. However, another cold front is forecast to drop south through the area by Friday, returning temperatures closer to seasonable levels, although still a few degrees above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR continues at all terminals. Gusts to around 20-25kts return during the day on Saturday. Winds shifting to the west and southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 31 68 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 31 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 41 76 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 73 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 35 58 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 29 67 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 30 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 34 68 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 35 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 30 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.