textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 - An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.

- A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region today with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding early this morning into the evening today. - Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Current radar and satellite imagery shows a line of thunderstorms moving slowly eastward across western portions of Lea County, while scattered showers and storms extending down from the Upper Trans Pecos to Davis Mountains. This is due to upper-level troughing over the western half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, multiple outflow boundaries across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico have helped in the additional development of showers and storms in the areas previously mentioned. Observations are also showing a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) positioned over southern New Mexico which will keep most showers and storms across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico overnight tonight. Satellite and radar imagery also shows an increase in coverage of showers and storms near Van Horn, thanks to the aforementioned shortwave trough moving over these areas. A few of these storms may become strong to severe capable of producing hail up to the size of half dollar coins and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Storms should eventually progress into the Permian Basin by the early morning hours, though coverage looks to remain scattered. By late morning, the wave across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico propagates eastward impacting locations in the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. The severe weather threat across the Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will depend on the timing and extent of the morning convection. Latest CAMs indicate more coverage of morning convection across the Permian Basin compared with the Lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, more favorable instability will be prevalent over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern/northeastern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings signal a damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat thanks to marginally unstable surface/mixed layer CAPE, sufficient deep-layer shear, high DCAPE (1000-1300 J/kg), and high Precipitable Water values (PWATs). Storms look to quickly become linear by the early afternoon hours which will bring more of a damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat. Cannot rule out a couple of isolated cells that form ahead of the line, therefore, large hail along with damaging winds will be the main hazards with these storms. Localized flash flooding is going to be evident due to heavy rainfall from repeating storms. Heaviest rainfall amounts are still uncertain, though convective bands will be capable of producing 1-2" for some locations. Overall, areas extending from far southeast New Mexico to the central/eastern Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will have a 50-60% chance of an inch or greater rainfall accumulation.

By the evening, the main line of storms will begin to exit our region. A few lingering showers and storms are expected into the overnight hours across the eastern half of the area due to shortwave impulses from the flow aloft. Much drier conditions are expected on Wednesday as the main system passes to the east. Isolated showers and storms are going to be prevalent over the northern Permian Basin and parts of the Lower Trans Pecos. These storms should remain below severe limits, though gusty winds may occur out of the strongest storm.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Much drier and warmer conditions on Thursday before rain/storm chances increase by Friday lasting through the weekend. We will be monitoring for the potential of more severe storms during this timeframe. See the discussion below for more details.

Thursday and Friday, an upper-level ridge strengthens over the region. This will supply warmer high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge axis may translate over our area and bring a low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms across far southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos Friday afternoon through the evening. At the surface, guidance indicates the dryline will set up near the TX/NM border. More available surface moisture and instability will create a favorable pattern for the potential of a few strong to severe storms. By the weekend, cluster analysis shows southwesterly flow aloft taking shape once again as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. This pattern looks to bring more isolated to scattered showers/storms along with slightly cooler temperatures in the 80s to low 90s Saturday through Monday across the region.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR conditions or lower in showers/storms for terminals on the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau until 15Z-18Z today. Main impacts of showers/storms at terminals will be lightning, heavy rainfall, hail, and damaging winds. There is a 20% to 30% chance of another round of showers/storms for terminals on the SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin 20Z-00Z this evening, with more uncertainty in shower/storm coverage over the rest of the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. In between regions of storms, VFR conditions with scattered to broken cloud cover can be expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 60 84 63 / 70 20 10 10 Carlsbad 78 58 86 60 / 50 10 0 0 Dryden 86 65 88 67 / 50 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 81 60 87 63 / 60 10 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 57 80 61 / 60 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 55 84 58 / 50 20 10 0 Marfa 80 50 84 52 / 30 0 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 61 83 63 / 70 10 10 10 Odessa 74 61 83 63 / 70 10 10 10 Wink 77 59 85 62 / 70 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.