textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- There is a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend this afternoon and evening. Strong and gusty winds are the main threat but there may be a few storms with large hail as well.

- Highs today reach the upper 90s to low 100s, which could cause heat stress for those doing outdoor activities. Widespread highs in the mid-to-upper 90s stick around Monday as well. - Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows a negatively-tilted upper trough over northeast Wyoming, and continuing to eject NNE towards Canada. An upper ridge is present over the central CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. Thicknesses will peak today, resulting in perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau some 7-9 F above climatology. To the southwest, a shortwave moving through Sonora will cross the river this afternoon, bringing a chance of convection through mainly West Texas this afternoon/early evening. While deep-lyr shear is rather tepid, forecast soundings do show a dry subcloud layer and dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg, suggesting damaging wind gusts will be possible. In addition, mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will also pose a large hail threat.

This activity should diminish after sundown. Skies will scatter out overnight, but the LLJ will keep the boundary layer mixed, and overnight minimums should be similar to this morning's, if not a skosh warmer.

Monday, the upper ridge develops east into the MS Valley, and local thicknesses decrease a bit as a result. This should shave a couple of degrees off afternoon, highs, but it'll still be warm. Afternoon convection will again be possible, mainly west of the Pecos, but storms look more isolated in nature, and not as strong as today.

Monday night, convection is forecast to diminish shortly after sundown. The LLJ will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the area, yielding overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than what's expect tonight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Tuesday marks the beginning of another pattern change that brings cooler and wetter weather to southeast New Mexico and west Texas. An upper-level trough develops out west and slowly makes it way towards our area through the remainder of the week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases across westernmost portions of our area beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, the trough begins to dig into Baja California and move towards northern Mexico. As this occurs, rain chances increase areawide. Widespread rain chances at or above 50% continue through at least the end of the work week. By that time, the trough begins to move across portions of our area and eject off to the northeast. As a result, rain chances start to decrease over the weekend (more so in the 10-30% range) and become more confined to easternmost parts of the area and in the higher terrain. Throughout this week, rich moisture will set up across the region. Model guidance indicates precipitable water values will be anywhere between 1.0-1.5 inches areawide, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year (nearing daily record territory on some days). As a result, flash flooding is expected to be the biggest threat this week, particularly for urban and low-lying areas. While a couple of storms may become strong to severe, dense cloud cover and relatively weak wind shear will be limiting factors for that concern. The dense cloud cover will also keep temperatures below normal for early June. While highs Tuesday manage to stay in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s (near normal), temperatures in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s can be expected the rest of the week. By the weekend, highs begin to tick back up closer to normal again as the trough makes its departure.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in areas of direct convection, which will affect KFST and, to a lesser extent, KINK/KPEQ. Cu bases this afternoon will range from 7-13 kft AGL. Forecast sounding redevelop cu near the end of the forecast period invof KHOB, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 97 70 93 / 30 0 0 10 Carlsbad 66 99 68 93 / 10 20 20 40 Dryden 71 96 72 93 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 68 97 69 93 / 20 20 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 66 89 66 84 / 10 20 20 50 Hobbs 64 96 65 90 / 10 20 20 20 Marfa 56 92 57 89 / 10 30 20 60 Midland Intl Airport 68 96 70 91 / 30 0 10 10 Odessa 69 96 70 91 / 20 0 10 10 Wink 68 98 70 93 / 20 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.