textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 225 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week.

- High temperatures in portions of the Big Bend are forecast to be between 105 and 110 degrees through at least early next week.

- Low (10-20%) chance of isolated shower/storm development Thursday afternoon and evening over the Davis Mountains, adjacent areas in the Trans Pecos, and the northern half of the Permian Basin.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Through this evening, the axis of an upper level ridge passes over our region. As the ridge traverses eastward this evening, lee troughing develops over the Plains, with a surface low eventually forming near the Texas Panhandle by early Friday morning. Given developing low pressure to our north, and surface high pressure to our east, winds tonight and Thursday will be breezy. South and southeast tonight result in lows cooling to the 60s. Thursday, the ridge axis gradually shifts east, while becoming dampened by an upper trough rolling into the northern US. Despite this, breezy south/southwesterly winds send afternoon temperatures into the 90s to low 100s (near and along the river valleys). The hottest conditions are expected within the Big Bend, where temperatures shall reach or surpass 105 degrees. Hot temperatures, breezy winds, and generally dry conditions raise concerns for fire weather over southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of west Texas beginning Thursday. At least some relief from the heat may come in the form of isolated shower/storms. Moisture ahead of a dryline extending from eastern New Mexico southward may combine with lift from a shortwave moving northeast out of Mexico Thursday afternoon. This brings low (10-20%) rain chances to the Davis Mountains, adjacent areas in the Trans Pecos, and the northern half of the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon and evening. Thursday night, elevated winds keep lows in the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Subtle upper ridging gives way to troughing across the western US Friday through the weekend. Regardless of gradually lowering heights, a surface low lingering near the Panhandle keeps breezy west/ southwest winds in the forecast each afternoon Friday through Sunday. As a response, downsloping winds push highs into the upper 90s to low 100s Friday and Saturday. Saturday will be the hottest of the two days, as triple digit heat overlays much of the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and areas along the Rio Grande. Again, the hottest conditions are expected within the Big Bend, where afternoon highs look to range between 105-110 degrees through the weekend. Sunday into Monday, the upper trough shifts closer to our region, bringing lower heights and southwesterly flow aloft. Highs both days reach the 80s in/near the higher elevations, with 90s almost everywhere else. Fire weather concerns remain heightened over the weekend through early next week for southeast New Mexico, and much of the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos given above normal temperatures, breezy winds, and mostly dry conditions. However, shortwaves embedded within the trough may aid in isolated shower/storm development over our eastern counties Sunday and Monday evenings. Tuesday, the upper trough weakens and shifts eastward. Surface high pressure then develops over the Plains and sends a cold front southward. This boundary looks to mix out either just north of our region, or somewhere within it. For now, Tuesday's are are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows are generally progged to cool into the 60s to 70s through much of the Long Term period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 65 97 70 98 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 64 99 66 97 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 65 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 99 70 99 / 0 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 66 88 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 97 64 96 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 55 91 58 91 / 0 20 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 96 69 97 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 66 96 70 97 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 65 99 68 98 / 0 10 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.