textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Isolated severe storms this afternoon and evening across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with large hail being the main threat.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

An active weather pattern is among us following a very warm and dry 30 day period. An upper trough to our west will provide our next shot for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase today as the trough begins to move east. This flow regime will induce leeside surface troughing helping to draw deep Gulf moisture (dewpts >60F) west across the area. By late afternoon, an increasing low level jet along with modest upper level support should allow for isolated convection to develop, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Hi- res models help support this idea with development generally after 4 PM CST. Steep mid level lapse rates along with modest deep layer shear will support isolated multicell/supercell structures with large hail being the main threat. The big question will be instability as we expect a rather extensive mid and upper cloud deck due to the deep fetch of moisture off the Pacific. While temperatures will remain above normal, we will cool several degrees from previous days due to the clouds.

The chance of rain remains high (60%) into tonight as mid and upper level lift further increases with the approach of the upper trough. Another round of storms appears likely to develop after midnight across much of the area. While the severe threat lowers somewhat due to the loss of daytime heating, high PWATs (>1") and training storms could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak (>80%) Thursday as the upper trough lifts and deamplifies over the region. Another round of storms is expected to develop and focus along an advancing Pacific front that will sweep across the area during the day. While moisture values remain high, storms will be fast-moving helping to limit the threat for flash flooding. Strong to severe storms are still possible Thursday, but weakening upper level support should help negate the threat. Expect high temperatures a few degrees cooler once again, especially across the higher terrain where the front will move through earlier in the day. Gusty west winds will follow the passage of the front with gusts >50 mph likely across the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into the evening. Will continue to monitor for possible high wind products.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The extended remains active as another storm system is set to affect the region later this weekend. Before that occurs, we are looking at a beautiful Friday as high pressure settles in helping to clear skies. With a Pacific airmass behind the front, high temperatures will still climb into the 60s and 70s for most locations outside of the mountains (50s).

Attention quickly turns to the west to another upper trough diving south over Baja early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will increase overhead once again helping to draw Gulf moisture back west over the area. This system will arrive Sunday into Monday bringing our next best chance of widespread showers and storms. Many of the details still have to be ironed out with this system so more on it once we get trough this week's storm. Temperatures will remain above normal through the duration of this forecast cycle as any really cold air stays well to our north.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR VIS continues to fill in across the central and eastern Permian Basin this morning. Expect visibilities to remain around 5SM with brief periods below 1SM possible. VFR to return by late morning to all terminals with light winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 60 72 45 / 30 70 90 30 Carlsbad 74 52 67 43 / 0 50 80 0 Dryden 80 63 79 50 / 20 50 70 10 Fort Stockton 77 63 77 46 / 10 40 60 10 Guadalupe Pass 63 48 57 39 / 10 40 70 0 Hobbs 74 53 67 40 / 0 60 90 10 Marfa 71 48 67 33 / 10 10 50 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 61 72 46 / 10 60 90 20 Odessa 74 61 70 46 / 10 60 80 20 Wink 75 58 70 43 / 10 50 80 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.