textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Below- to near-normal temperatures and low chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist persist through Tuesday, before a warming/drying trend ensues through the weekend.

- With the warming/drying trend, critical fire weather conditions will return beginning Wednesday, and continue through the weekend, mainly over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains from late Thursday morning through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

WV imagery this morning shows a negatively-tilted upper trough over Baja on the west coast, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under messy southwest flow aloft. At the surface, return flow is advecting abundant Gulf moisture into the region on a weak warm front, resulting in encroaching stratus and widespread, low-POP convective chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms, mainly through this afternoon. This activity will taper off to the east and north after sundown this evening, replaced by patchy fog east of Midland.

The Baja trough is projected to eject northeast/minor out later today. Closer to home, stubborn stratus will persist, offsetting warmer temperatures in the west, easily resulting in the coolest day this forecast as highs under the stratus will be lucky to reach 20 F below climatology. As mentioned above, convection will gradually taper off to the east.

Tonight, with increased dewpoints under persistent stratus, overnight minimums should be ~ 3-4 F warmer than this morning's, with patchy fog possible east of Midland.

Tuesday, stratus finally begins eroding as westerlies increase over the higher terrain, prompting a significant increase in thicknesses and bringing highs up closer to normal, although recovery will remain slowest east of a sharpening dryline. Upslope flow will put isolated convection in play during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Unfortunately, this will be the last significant chance of rain this forecast, and even so, QPF looks paltry.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Wednesday, a secondary, upper-level trough is forecast to make landfall in NoCal, nudging the upper ridge east into the MS Valley. This will continue increasing thicknesses, sending afternoon highs upwards of 10 F above normal. Unseasonably warm temperatures are then expected through the end of the extended as a series of upper- level troughs increase downslope warming each day.

Thursday, the secondary trough ejects into the upper Midwest, developing a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes, for high winds by late morning there. These could persist through Friday afternoon as a tertiary trough digs down the west coast. Significant westerlies could then redevelop late Friday night and persist in one fashion or another through the weekend. All this will maintain above-normal highs each day, putting either Wednesday or Thursday the warmest day this forecast. However, absent any cold fronts, the weekend will remain warm, as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

TAFs will be a mess next 24 hours as a stratus deck develops north through the Pecos Rvr Valley/lwr Trans Pecos, resulting in IFR/MVFR cigs, mainly eastern terminals. To further exacerbate the situation, minor impulses moving through southwest flow aloft are bringing widespread, marginal chances of mainly -SHRA into the region. Fortunately, the bulk of this has cleared the terminals and moved east. Stratus will attempt to clear out W-E today, but may persist in the east into the overnight hours tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Of course, given the drying/warming trend, the only fly left in the ointment is fire weather. Elevated or critical fire wx conditions will resurface beginning Wednesday with the warmer temperatures, mainly in Southeast New Mexico. Should higher 20-ft winds materialize, which would mean NOT NBM, critical fire wx conditions will peak for this forecast Saturday or so, when widespread extreme RFTIs will be possible over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas, due to single-digt relative humidity and increased 20-ft winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 53 77 59 / 60 10 10 0 Carlsbad 75 52 86 54 / 20 10 10 0 Dryden 62 55 77 61 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 71 53 84 59 / 20 10 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 50 78 57 / 20 10 10 0 Hobbs 68 50 82 54 / 30 10 0 10 Marfa 71 44 80 48 / 40 10 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 54 77 59 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 62 54 78 60 / 30 10 10 0 Wink 70 54 82 59 / 20 10 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.