textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon and evening across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. A few of these storms may become severe capable of producing damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and large hail. - Low (10% to 30%) shower/storm chances each afternoon/evening through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures persist, with a slight warming trend and increasing heat risk by the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over northern Sonora, just southwest of El Paso. As a result, warm weather persists. However, thicknesses will decrease somewhat this afternoon, shaving a degree or so off yesterday's highs. To the northeast, a convective outflow boundary is working its way SSW into the area. and looks to be the focus for convection this afternoon and overnight. Assisting to the west, models develop a MCS over Colorado on a shortwave riding down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Deep-layer shear on the 12Z KMAF RAOB came in rather tepid, but CAMs increase bulk shear later this afternoon and overnight as the Colorado MCS approaches. The 12Z sounding also had a dcape in excess of 1600 J/kg, and wet-bulb zeros/mid- lvl lapse rates suggesting a large hail threat.

This activity will continue this evening, and possibly overnight, mainly northern Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. This, along with cooler air advected in from the northeast, will cool overnight minimums down to less than 5 F above climatology. Unfortunately, this looks to be the coolest night this forecast. Lows after tonight will remain unseasonably warm as a LLJ redevelops, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed.

Monday, the ridge is forecast to develop a little farther west. Thicknesses will continue decreasing, combining w/CAA from today and tonight's convective activity to the north to shave a couple of degrees off today's temperatures. Highs Monday afternoon should average only ~ 2-4 F above normal. In addition to the usual afternoon convection in the mountains, redevelopment on today's boundary will be possible, mainly in the southeast Permian Basin.

Monday night, overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so warmer as the LLJ begins strengthening again..

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Above normal temperatures continue into the Long Term period as upper-level ridging persists across the southwestern CONUS. Expect highs to top out between the upper 90s to lower triple digits each afternoon. Thursday and Friday currently look to be the hottest days this forecast period as triple digit temperatures become more widespread, with some spots in the Big Bend seeing highs near 110 degrees. Little relief is expected overnight as lows bottom out in the mid-to-upper 70s for most (except 60s in the higher terrain) most nights. Southeasterly upslope flow and assistance from surface troughing yield low (generally 10-30%) chances of showers/storms across the higher terrain (particularly in/near the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau) during the latter part of the week and into the weekend. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. An outflow boundary will move into the area overnight from the northeast. Convection will be possible along this boundary, mainly invof KHOB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 97 73 99 / 30 10 10 0 Carlsbad 71 98 72 99 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 75 99 74 99 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 90 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 67 95 70 96 / 30 10 10 0 Marfa 62 91 61 91 / 10 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 73 97 / 30 10 10 0 Odessa 73 96 73 97 / 20 10 10 0 Wink 73 98 73 99 / 20 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.