textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected to continue, with highs 10-20 degrees above normal through the forecast period.

- There is a high (70-90%) probability of record highs Saturday, with widespread temperatures in the low 80s.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Surface analysis shows a weak cold front draped across portions of southeast New Mexico and extending into the Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos. This front will have little impact on today's highs, with highs only a few degrees cooler than yesterday's (particularly for areas north of the front). Despite southerly return flow tonight, overnight lows are forecast to be 7-10 degrees cooler than the previous night as light winds and clear skies promote effective radiational cooling. By Friday, surface lee troughing will induce a low-level mass response, increasing southwesterly winds across the higher terrain and southerly winds further east. Increasing thicknesses associated with this warm air advection regime yields afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 70s for most (upper 70s to low 80s across the Trans Pecos). Despite the weak front and lee troughing, dry conditions remain in the forecast as deep moisture remains off to the east.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Confidence in record-breaking high temperatures on Saturday remains high (70-90%) across the Permian Basin and Upper/Lower Trans-Pecos regions as guidance has consistently been in good agreement (thanks to westerly downslope flow at the surface and zonal flow aloft). For reference, the previous record high at KMAF was 79F, set back in 2010 and afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 80s for most. The latest model guidance still suggests that winds should be a bit breezy Saturday as a surface low associated with lee troughing develops ahead of a stronger cold front.

A few minor shortwaves embedded within the jet stream located over the Central Plains is expected to send the aforementioned cold front into our region by Saturday night, bringing Sunday's highs down approximately 15-20 degrees from the previous day for most, with highs in the 60s across the northern two-thirds of our CWA. However, these cooler temperatures will be short-lived. By early next week, temperatures quickly warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s as heights begin to increase and warm air advection returns. Ensemble guidance suggests that afternoon highs should remain about the same through at least the middle part of next week. Dry conditions continue into the extended forecast due to the lack of deep moisture.

Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions persist. Winds will be calm tonight, but become breezy out of the south and southwest Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 35 72 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 37 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 40 71 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 43 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 42 67 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 35 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 31 73 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 39 72 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 40 72 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 36 76 44 82 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.