textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms develop across the region again today. A few storms will be capable of producing localized severe downburst winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- The heavy rainfall and flash flood threat increases across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Van Horn Corridor tonight through at least Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential may persist over these locations through the latter part of the week as well.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels today through the remainder of the week, gradually warming again by this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Current 500mb RAP analysis shows an area of high pressure centered near central Texas. Meanwhile, an upper trough with a low centered near Nevada is digging into the western CONUS. Wedged in between these two features, southerly/southwesterly flow aloft draws moisture from Hurricane Polo in the EPAC, evidenced by plentiful high cloud coverage. Surface winds become easterly/southeasterly as yesterday's front stalls near the Pecos River valley, accompanied by Gulf moisture. Provided these two sources of moisture, PWAT values this afternoon look to range between 1-1.5" across the region. Through the period, the ridge slowly shifts eastward, while disturbances roll along its western periphery, mainly over New Mexico. Lift from these disturbances promotes isolated to scattered shower/storm development this afternoon and evening across the area. Rain chances areawide this afternoon range from 10-50%, with the best odds over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. A few showers have already percolated over the southeastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. The primary concerns with the strongest storms today remains heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, along with strong to severe wind gusts.

Moisture advection from both the mid levels and lower levels continues through the rest of the Short Term period. Rain chances tonight range from 20-70%, favoring the northwestern portion of our region. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are again in the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Nearest the area of high pressure, the southern/eastern Permian Basin and the Big Bend, rain chances will tend to be lower. The highest chances (50-70%) will be focused over southeast New Mexico and Culberson County through the remainder of the period. Given several rounds of rainfall expected in our westernmost reaches, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect over southeast New Mexico, far west Texas, and the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts are generally expected between 1-2", with isolated amounts of over 4" possible with the heaviest storms in these areas. Be sure to be weather aware and keep an eye out for any warnings issued! Otherwise, temperatures tonight and tomorrow night generally cool to the 60s. Highs tomorrow warm into the 70s in the higher terrain, 90s along the Rio Grande valley, and 80s almost everywhere else.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The cooler and wetter pattern continues through the end of the week. Southeasterly winds at lower levels will pump moisture from the Gulf towards our region, while southerly to southwesterly winds aloft continue to advect mid-to-upper level moisture our direction. As a result, PWATs remain between the 90th-99th percentile. This, combined with lift from shortwaves in the flow aloft, will continue to encourage medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances across mainly the western half of the area Thursday and Friday (50-80%). The highest chances/most rainfall is still forecast for our southeast New Mexico counties and in Culberson County, where the Flood Watch mentioned in the Short Term discussion remains in effect through 7AM CDT/6AM MDT Thursday (though this may be extended in future forecast updates). Chances are generally be lower for the eastern half of the area (20-40%).

By Saturday the flow aloft becomes more zonal as ridging begins to build over the area again. As a result, the best rain chances shift towards the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos (30-60% chances), with lower chances elsewhere. Temperatures also start to increase again during this timeframe. Whereas highs in the mid-to- upper 80s and low 90s will be prevalent through Friday, highs in the low-to-mid 90s return to most locations this weekend and into early next week. By the early-to-middle part of next week, long range models continue to depict another trough moving across the Plains. This trough may help push another front our direction, and may also allow rain chances to increase across the area again. Nevertheless, confidence in the positioning, timing, and strength of the trough remains low this far out, so stay tuned for future updates!

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR continues outside of convection developing and moving through the area. With low confidence of timing of impact of any showers and storms, will preclude mention for now, but amendments may be necessary before next routine issuance. Winds vary somewhat through tonight before shifting back to the southeast by tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 88 70 91 / 30 20 10 10 Carlsbad 65 82 64 83 / 60 60 50 60 Dryden 72 90 72 91 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 68 87 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 61 72 60 74 / 50 80 50 80 Hobbs 64 82 65 83 / 60 40 50 40 Marfa 60 79 59 81 / 10 30 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 68 86 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 Odessa 69 86 70 88 / 30 10 10 10 Wink 69 87 70 88 / 30 20 30 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Eastern Culberson- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.