textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 343 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- A slow-moving upper-level system brings periods of hazardous winds to the Guadalupes/Delawares, the Davis Mountains, and respective adjacent plains/foothills today through at least Wednesday.

- Areas where strongest winds are expected will also be at risk of near-critical to critical fire danger today through at least Wednesday, with blowing dust today also expected today.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through mid-week, followed by a cooling trend into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 343 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Upper-level ridging is beginning to give way to an upper trough sliding into the southwestern CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft increases today as the trough's strong jet core approaches the region. The jet core itself looks to set up in close proximity to southeastern New Mexico by this morning, resulting in the development of a mountain wave signature. This feature tends to bring about hazardous winds to our mountains, especially the Guadalupes/Delawares, and adjacent plains. The approaching upper trough will also aid in the development of a lee trough that'll extend into the Panhandle and down toward the Big Bend today. Likewise, this feature can bring about breezy to strong southwesterly winds, given a tight pressure gradient. As such, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and surrounding plains (gusts up to 80 mph) and the Davis Mountains (gusts up to 65 mph) are under a High Wind Warning from late this morning through early this evening. Meanwhile, the northwestern Permian Basin and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos are under a Wind Advisory during the same time period. Winds could gust up to 55 mph in these areas. Winds elsewhere are expected to be on the breezy to low-end strong side.

Aside from strong winds, this system shall be accompanied by dry conditions. The surface trough pushes a cold front into the area late this afternoon into the evening. This should help dampen the effect of downsloping westerly/southwesterly winds. Highs today peak in the 70s to 80s, with a few areas in the Big Bend reaching the 90s. Despite this, warm, dry, and windy conditions combine to result in near-critical to critical fire weather danger late this morning through the early evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect during this time frame across the southeast New Mexico plains, the Upper Trans Pecos, the Davis Mountains, and Gaines County. Blowing dust will be another hazard to consider today across the windiest areas (same time frame and location as included in the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory, with the exception of the mountains). These locations are under a Blowing Dust Advisory and could occasionally see visibilities reduced to a mile or less.

Tonight, the aforementioned cold front sweeps across our region. Winds taper down for most, though remain breezy in the Guadalupe/ Guadalupe/ Delaware Mountains. Temperatures tonight decrease into the upper 30s in portions of southeast New Mexico, 40s for most, and 50 in our southernmost counties. Wednesday looks to feature a very similar set up to today, though to slightly lesser degree as the strongest part of the upper trough's jet core shifts northeast. This being the case, expect hazards and products analogous to Tuesday on Wednesday. Courtesy of the above mentioned cold front, highs Wednesday afternoon are forecast to generally range within the 70s to 80s (Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend).

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 343 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The long term period features a continuation of breezy to strong winds and a cooling trend as a troublesome, upper-level trough with embedded shortwaves hangs around. Westerly winds remain gusty in and near the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Wednesday night thanks to a persistent mountain wave signature created by an approaching shortwave. This feature also produces a dry cold front that pushes into the area late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. With the front, temperatures continue a gradual cooling trend. Expect highs in the upper 60s over southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas, 70s for most, and 80s in much of our southern counties. The proximity of the jet core associated with this above mentioned shortwave keeps breezy winds in the forecast for much of the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds are expected in the Guadalupe/ Delaware Mountains and surrounding plains. Friday sees a similar set up to Thursday, with another shortwave making an approach to our region, bringing gusty winds to the same problematic areas. Temperatures also look similar to Thursday, albeit a couple of degrees cooler. Both Thursday and Friday may necessitate further fire weather and wind products in future forecast packages as confidence in such conditions increases.

This latter shortwave sends another cold front into our region late Friday night into Saturday, giving winds a northerly component. Temperatures Friday night plummet into the 30s across the northwestern half of the region, with 40s elsewhere. Highs Saturday afternoon mainly warm into the 60s. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure also looks to return Saturday, finally giving us a break from our stretch of elevated winds. Cooler air sets in Sunday, resulting in highs within the upper 50s to 60s. Temperatures rebound a touch next Monday. Unfortunately, not a single front within the forecast period is expected to provide us with some moisture.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. However, there is a possibility for BLDU Tuesday afternoon (especially at CNM, HOB, PEQ, and INK) as winds increase, gusting up to 30-42kts at all sites (including MAF and FST). Have opted to leave BLDU out of the TAFs for now due to uncertainty in the timing, coverage, and thickness of blowing dust. BLDU may be added during the next TAF issuance if confidence increases. Southerly to southwesterly winds are expected to continue before shifting westerly by 16Z to 18Z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 343 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather danger is expected for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Gaines County, and the Davis Mountains over the next several days. A slow-progressing upper-level system accompanied by a series of embedded shortwaves will produce strong, westerly/southwesterly winds and dry conditions in these locations through much of the week. This afternoon, ERCs are largely expected to range within the 50th-74th percentile across our region, with similar conditions lasting through the coming days. This shall coincide with near to below critical minRH values each afternoon beginning today through the end of the week. Winds in the above mentioned locations are forecast to experience gusts up to 60 mph out of the west and southwest. As such, there is a Red Flag Warning in effect over these areas from late this morning through early this evening. Given Wednesday looks to see a similar set up as today, another Red Flag Warning is likely over similar areas. Elevated fire weather conditions look to persist through the latter half of the week. This being the case, further fire weather products may be needed in future forecast packages. We shall continue monitoring the situation as the week progresses.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 43 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 88 52 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 87 50 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 41 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 75 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 37 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 82 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 81 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 81 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Gaines-Loving- Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor- Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for Southern Lea.