textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Isolated showers/storms early this evening across portions of far west Texas, southeast New Mexico, and higher terrain. Strong downburst winds and small hail will accompany the strongest storms.

- Patchy dense fog is expected once again across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico Thursday morning. When visibilities become low, take it slow!

- Numerous showers/storms are in store Thursday through Friday evening. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially across low-lying and urban areas.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Satellite and radar imagery as of 12 PM CDT has low clouds and fog dispersing across portions of southeast New Mexico, Permian Basin, and Pecos River Valley. Southwesterly flow aloft and upslope flow will continue to bring additional isolated convection across portions of far West Texas and higher terrain later this afternoon through early evening. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest storms will be capable of downbursts (damaging winds) and hail up to the size of quarters. This is thanks to modest mid-level lapse rates and high DCAPE values coupled with sufficient deep-layer wind shear. Highs today are forecast in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tonight, patchy fog looks to occur once again across southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin. Isolated spots of dense fog may develop, reducing visibilities below 1/4 mile. Be sure to drive with caution if you encounter low visibilities! A more active weather pattern sets up as an upper-level shortwave trough along with abundant moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance enters the forecast area. Bands of rain are expected to enter the southernmost portions of the region by late tonight. By Thursday afternoon, coverage of showers and thunderstorms become scattered to numerous extending from the Rio Grande to Permian Basin. Precipitable Water values (PWATs) exceed the 90th climatological percentile for areas across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Permian Basin. These values indicate the threat of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially for locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Hi-res guidance looks to have a brief window of a storm or two becoming strong Thursday afternoon, where a brief downburst (60 mph gust or greater) or two may occur. Overall, the severe weather still remains very low.

The heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat heightens Thursday night through the Friday morning commute as the aforementioned upper- level shortwave trough and tropical moisture plume will be displaced over the region. Urban streets, highway/interstate construction zones, and low-lying areas will be the most susceptible spots for flash flooding. Uncertainty still remains where exactly the heaviest rainfall will happen and precise rainfall amounts. Ensembles continue to trend towards general amounts of 1-3" across the eastern half of the region. The uncertainty lies in the track of the low from the remnant Tropical Storm Vance. A more eastern track means the heaviest rainfall will set up across the Lower Trans Pecos extending into the eastern half of the Permian Basin, while areas across the Upper Trans Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and parts of the Permian Basin will miss out on quite a bit of rainfall due to dry slotting. A more western track of this system means the heaviest rain sets up across the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. For now, model guidance favors a more eastward track with this system, though latest guidance has been trending slightly westward.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Heavy showers with a couple rumbles of thunder continue Friday morning through the afternoon hours. The upper-level shortwave trough is expected to lift northeast throughout the day which will push scattered to numerous showers to the east and northeast parts of the region. Evaporative cooling and overcast cloud coverage limits high temperatures to the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. By Friday night, the shortwave trough shifts well east of the region. Subtle upper-level ridging builds in by Halloween morning bringing mostly dry conditions throughout the day across the area. Highs are expected to climb back into the 70s regionwide. Another upper-level system approaches from the west by Sunday. This will bring low chances (20-40%) back in the forecast for northern portions of the region. This system will eventually send a cold front by early next week. Guidance does have the upper-low deepening across the Southern Plains by Tuesday which will be a favorable pattern for breezy to strong winds, along with dry and cooler conditions by mid week. Uncertainty still persists in how strong winds will become, and how cool temperatures will be. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs develop around 10-12Z this morning. BR/FG may develop at CNM/HOB/PEQ (less confident at PEQ) around 11-13Z before dissipating around 16/17Z. Iso to sct RA and even TSRA likely tomorrow afternoon and evening at all terminals. RA/TSRA expected to begin south of FST and gradually spread northward throughout the day Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 59 69 57 / 70 90 90 20 Carlsbad 74 58 72 56 / 50 100 40 30 Dryden 69 61 72 60 / 90 100 70 30 Fort Stockton 72 60 73 58 / 90 80 60 10 Guadalupe Pass 66 55 66 54 / 50 90 30 40 Hobbs 71 56 67 53 / 50 90 70 20 Marfa 66 54 71 52 / 90 80 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 71 59 69 57 / 70 90 70 20 Odessa 71 60 70 58 / 70 90 70 20 Wink 73 59 72 57 / 60 90 60 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Crane- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton- Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from 9 AM MDT Thursday through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.