textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Near normal temperatures today before triple digit heat returns to many locations Sunday and Monday.

- Low shower and storm chances (up to 20%) west of the Pecos River this afternoon. A storm or two may become strong where damaging winds will be the the main threat with strongest storms.

- Above-normal temperatures through the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mid to upper ridging strengthens over the Intermountain West while troughing persists across the eastern CONUS, resulting in above average temperatures and weak west/northwest flow aloft. IR satellite imagery early this morning depicts this flow as clouds drift southeast. Highs today rise into the 95F-100F range, 100F-105F range along the Pecos River valley into Upper Trans Pecos as well as most of the Rio Grande basin, and into the 105F-110F range from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend. While hotter than yesterday, this still will not meet hazardous heat criteria for this time of year, even along the Rio Grande. 10% to 15% PoPs develop this afternoon, mainly over the Marfa Plateau. Steep low-level lapse rates, strong vertical motion in the low-levels of the atmosphere from heating of elevating terrain, and easterly winds advecting moisture upslope into the low levels will assist in development of clouds and rain chances later in the day today. Given the steep lapse rates and DCAPE above 1000 J/kg on model forecast soundings, the strongest storms will once again pose a chance for damaging winds. Despite weak steering flow, low-levels will likely be too dry (PWAT < 1.00") for anything more than brief heavy rainfall with minimal flooding potential. Any storms diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating as lows settle into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin and Marfa Plateau, and the 75F-80F range or slightly above from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend.

Hotter temperatures set in for Sunday as large scale sinking and warming motion increases under the ridge. Shower/storm chances decrease to near zero as a result, with widespread highs in the 100F- 105F range, 105F-110F along the Pecos River valley and Upper Trans Pecos into the Stockton Plateau and central and northern Permian as well as much of the Rio Grande basin, while highs 110F-115F return to the Big Bend and "coolest" locations still see 95F-100F highs. East/southeast winds shift to west/southwest downsloping through the day as lee troughing/a dryline develops east. Even with dew point temperatures below 40F over northwesternmost higher terrain and a relative maximum in winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts, higher fuel moisture will likely keep fire weather risk low. Unlike today, heat advisory criteria conditions are likely (75% to 85%) over the southern and southeast lowlands tomorrow, with lows only falling into the 75F-80F range not just for the Rio Grande basin, but parts of the Upper Trans Pecos southwest of the Pecos River as well, with 70F-75F lows elsewhere apart form 65F-70F over higher elevations and northern SE NM plains. Watch for later issuance of heat advisories, and take proper heat safety precautions: drink plenty of water, stay out of the sun, avoid going outside during the hottest part of the day, and remain in an air conditioned building. Hot weather continues through next week, but occasional shower/storm chances will skirt the northern parts of our forecast area as we remain on the southern end of the storm track. For more details, read the Long Term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Widespread triple digit heat continues through next week as upper- level ridging builds across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. At this time, Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week where the ridge axis sits over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Many spots in the Trans Pecos look to see afternoon maximums between 105 and 110 degrees. Furthermore, temperatures in the Big Bend are expected to soar between 110 and 115 degrees. Though triple digit heat is likely to stick around for many during the middle and latter part of next week, some spots cool a few degrees as the ridge axis shifts to the west. A few shortwave impulses on the eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge axis and assistance from easterly to southeasterly upslope flow could bring low (generally 10-20%, up to 30%) chances of rain across the higher terrain each day and night. Some remnant boundaries may even bring additional chances of rain to the northern Permian Basin Monday and Tuesday nights. However, there remains uncertainty in the timing and coverage of convection. Details will need to be ironed out in the coming days.

Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions after 14Z-17Z as any HZ/BR/FG for terminals along the Pecos River and Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau dissipates. South/southeast winds throughout the period, increasing to 15 to 20 knots for terminals from 23Z-02Z this evening through 08Z-10Z Sunday morning, then decreasing below 15 knots from 08Z-10Z into the end of the period, apart from terminals over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 74 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 72 107 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 96 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 72 105 75 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 70 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 98 70 105 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 94 62 99 65 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 73 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 73 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 73 106 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.