textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions today across southeast New Mexico and Culberson County. Near critical to critical fire weather concerns persist over similar locations through at least the weekend.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through at least early next week.

- Fire weather concerns increase as an upper level system leads to breezy to strong winds late this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Following strong winds yesterday, winds 20 to 25 mph and up to 30 to 35 mph for the Guadalupes, Culberson County, and western Eddy County Plains are again expected today as the area remains largely west of a dryline. Highs today again rise into the 80s and 90s F, mid 90s F and above for southern Rio Grande basin into Terrell County due to the continued westerly downsloping winds. However, HeatRisk remains low due to dew point temperatures staying below 30F and more humid air remaining off to the east. This maintains a diurnal range of 20 to 25 degrees, with lows falling into the mid 50s to mid 60s F Friday night, followed by highs again rising into the 80s and 90s F Saturday. Continued and similar strength westerly downsloping winds as on Friday allow air warmer by a few degrees to advect into the area as the dryline surges farther east. Following lows falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s F Saturday night as downsloping winds maintain boundary mixing and limit overnight cooling of the surface layer, there is potential for stronger winds and issuance of wind and fire products products late weekend into early next week for the western higher terrain and surrounding foothills and plains. This will occur as an upper-level jet brushes northwest parts of the area ahead of a cyclonic disturbance over the Great Basin developing into the Central Great Plains. More details in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Saturday night through Sunday, an upper level trough translates across SoCal and over the Desert Southwest. This feature's jet streak nears our region by Sunday morning, increasing westerly and southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface lee trough develops over the Plains, shoving a dryline east of our area and steering breezy to strong west/ southwest winds Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains late Sunday morning through Monday, likely reaching High Wind criteria. The adjacent plains in southeast New Mexico and west Texas may also reach near Wind Advisory criteria Sunday afternoon. Given dry conditions, highs in the upper 80s to 90s, and an overlap with stronger winds, fire weather products may be necessary over at least southeast New Mexico Sunday afternoon and evening. A Pac front sweeps into the region Sunday night into Monday. Monday's highs warm to just a few degrees shy of Sunday's, though winds remain breezy due to the proximity of the aforementioned jet streak. However, winds do not look to reach the same magnitude on Monday as what is expected Sunday. Thus, the need for potential, additional fire weather products will require reassessment.

Tuesday, the upper trough's jet streak gradually lifts northeast, allowing winds to taper down a touch. Highs look to range within the upper 80s to 90s. Models indicate a surface high setting up over the Plains Tuesday night, pushing the dryline westward and possibly yielding some rain chances over our eastern counties Wednesday afternoon/evening, along with slightly cooler temperatures that persist through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF period. West/northwest winds shifting to west/southwest 17Z-23Z this afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots for terminals over the SE NM plains. Winds then decrease below 15 knots 01Z-05Z this evening while remaining west/southwest into the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 57 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 95 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 61 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 79 56 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 82 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 89 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 90 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.