textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Winds shift northwesterly to northerly behind a passing cold front this evening. Decreasing temperatures by this weekend, with Saturday being the colder of the days. Near to below freezing low temperatures likely for all of the area Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday into Tuesday, with increasing precipitation chances accompanying a weather system and its associated Pacific moisture early this week. Low to medium (25% to 45%) probability of a few tenths wintry mix or snow accumulations for central and northern Brewster and Presidio Counties Monday.

- Near average temperatures mid-week into late week, with dry weather expected.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts a trough centered over northern portions of New Mexico, with an upper-level jet moving over parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Thanks to these features and a surface low in northeastern New Mexico, another windy day is in store for our area today. While winds are not forecast to be a strong as yesterday's, sustained westerly winds from 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph will be commonplace this afternoon. Some locations will see a brief respite in the winds tonight, but by this evening into the overnight hours a strong cold front enters the region. This cold front will bring additional gusty winds (including strong gap winds for Guadalupe Pass) and much more January-like temperatures. Lows tonight plummet into the 20s for most, with upper 30s for southernmost locations and teens in the higher terrain (particularly the Davis Mountains). Highs tomorrow end up 5-10 degrees below normal, with most places topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s as cold air advection continues. Clear skies and light winds promote even colder temperatures Sunday morning. Lows in the 20s will once again be common areawide, with teens in the Davis Mountains and temperatures right around freezing along the Rio Grande.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The weekend comes to a close on a more unsettled note precipitation-wise. Deterministic models all depict surface high pressure and clear weather giving way to a mid to upper level weather system and increasing clouds late this weekend. This will be overlain by a larger scale mid to upper troughing pattern keeping temperatures closer to average compared to previous weeks. Highs Sunday following what might be the coldest night this winter only rise into the 50s F, with 40s F common over higher elevations from Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau. Dew point temperatures staying in the teens down to single digits F will mean very dry air remaining over the area past Saturday. North/northwest winds Sunday night veer to southerly by Monday morning, which along with increased moisture at mid-levels from the mid to upper disturbance developing northeast from Baja, will limit overnight cooling. This will mean lows above freezing again making a reappearance over the Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, with near to below freezing lows for the region north of Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. Precipitation probabilities continue to increase Monday as mid to level forcing for ascent and moisture accompanying the mid to upper disturbance increases. Temperature - dew point temperature differences in the atmospheric column are forecast to decrease from greater than 30F to within 10F as this occurs. However, despite more humid mid to upper atmospheric profiles and renewed southerly winds ahead of this weather system, dew point temperatures still remain in the teens and only rise into the 20s F Rio Grande basins, limiting more substantial wintry mix and/or snow accumulation. While highs rise into the 50s F, lower 60s F northeast Permian Basin and right along the Rio Grande on Monday, timing of highest precipitation chances (at this time low to medium 20% to 30%) over the southernmost part of the southern Marfa Plateau into Rio Grande basins will coincide with temperatures dropping into the 40s F Monday morning and late afternoon, keeping the window of snow accumulation open. Lows only warm by a few degrees from Sunday night for Monday night, keeping lows in the 30s F down to the Rio Grande basins and remaining close to freezing with 20s F in basins and foothills, valleys, and northernmost regions. Therefore, weather grids are still showing wintry mix and snow mixing in with rain most of Monday into early Tuesday morning. Forecast precipitation and snowfall accumulations continue to stay low due to the very dry air, up to a tenth and up to an inch, respectively. Most of this precipitation is still forecast to accumulate over the peaks near the Chisos basin, farther south of where more consistent freezing precipitation in the form of snow showers and wintry mix are indicated in weather grids over central and northern Brewster and Presidio Counties - but also farther south where precipitation probabilities will be higher. We will continue to monitor the situation to see how the forecast changes in terms of precipitation probabilities, coverage, and timing, but for now we expect a low to medium (25% to 45%) probability of freezing precipitation accumulation for the Rio Grande basins.

By mid-week next week, the mid to upper system begins to wash out over the area, and the northwest mid to upper flow on the backside of troughing over the eastern CONUS as well as drier weather returns. This allows subtle lee troughing and occasional weak cold fronts to reoccur, keeping temperatures from getting either too cold or too warm while precipitation chances stay out of the forecast. Winds are forecast to oscillate from southerly to westerly to north/northeast and back to southerly as these features develop and progress over the area. Highs in the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations and northern Lea County are forecast Tuesday through the end of next week, with lows remaining near to below freezing from Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains and western Permian Basin, and 30s F elsewhere. Dew point temperatures continuing to remain in the teens and 20s F for most of the region, allowing for overnight cooling of lows into 30s F and below to persist. This dry air will also keep precipitation chances near zero after the possible wintry weather over the Rio Grande basins early this week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will shift northwesterly to northerly at 15-25 kt with a few gusts over 30 kt behind a cold front this evening. Winds should gradually decrease to 10-15 kt by early Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 29 50 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 28 46 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 35 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 31 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 26 40 26 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 25 48 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 20 44 15 49 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 30 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 30 48 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 28 49 22 54 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.