textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected areawide through this evening.

- A potent cold front brings strong northerly winds and areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening. Much colder temperatures return tonight and Monday. Many locations will experience temperatures at or below freezing Monday morning.

- Following near to below freezing low temperatures Monday night, a sharp warming trend occurs for the middle into the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Radar imagery and surface observations show a cold front advancing into the southern Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos region this afternoon. Winds remain gusty out of the N/NE behind this boundary with areas of blowing dust reducing the visibility to less than one mile at times. A wall of dust along the advancing front significantly limited visibility over the central Basin earlier this afternoon, with a very localized wind gust to 67 mph recorded at MAF with the passage of the front. Wind speeds sustained between 25-35 mph with a few gusts of 40-50 mph will persist into early this evening, so the Wind Advisory and Blowing Dust Advisory will remain intact until 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT). Strong northeasterly gap winds will develop through Guadalupe Pass this evening and persist through late tonight, so a High Wind Warning remains in effect there until 4 AM CDT. Temperatures will turn much colder behind the front tonight with a freeze expected over much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains and higher terrain areas. Temperatures on Monday will trend much below normal for a change with highs in the 50s over much of the region. Another chilly night is expected Monday night with lows in the 20s and 30s over most of the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail Tuesday into Wednesday between the persistent trough over the eastern CONUS and a strong upper-level high that will build over the Desert Southwest. The upper ridge will slowly build eastward toward southeast New Mexico and west Texas from midweek into the weekend. Surface troughing will also develop to our west and these features will bring a rapid warming trend Tuesday-Saturday. Record heat may impact the region late this week into this weekend, when highs are forecast to reach into the 90s over much of the CWA.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin will bring a wind shift to the north with sustained speeds up to 25-30 knots and gusts to around 40 kt at KMAF and KHOB early this afternoon. An Airport Weather Warning has been issued for the strong speeds/gusts until 2100Z. Visibility will be lowered to at least MVFR thresholds and very locally IFR or below with blowing dust at times at these terminals this afternoon. VFR will otherwise be prevalent. Winds will become northeasterly and diminish by late this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Min RH values below 15%, dry fuels characterized by ERCs near or in the 70th to 89th percentile, warmer than average temperatures, and 20-ft winds above 20 miles per hour will maintain critical fire weather conditions through this evening. Winds are shifting northerly behind a passing cold front. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for west Texas and southeast New Mexico through 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/. Much cooler temperatures and lighter winds are expected Monday. Breezy southerly winds and low RH may bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Tuesday. A sharp warming trend occurs mid to late week, but light 20-ft winds keep fire weather concerns low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 30 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 85 34 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 92 38 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 86 35 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 75 30 50 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 78 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 78 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 32 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 82 32 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 86 32 53 31 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell- Upton-Ward-Winkler.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews- Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.