textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Low-to-medium rain chances (20-40%) stick around Friday, mainly along and south of I-10.

- Warming trend this weekend with low (10% to 15%) shower/storm chances over the higher terrain Saturday, followed by lower rain chances for most of the area into next week.

- Increased downsloping winds over the Guadalupes Sunday along with hot and dry conditions will increase risk of rapid fire spread for any fires that start or are ongoing.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Surface analysis shows the cold front stalled out near I-10, with breezy conditions behind it. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms remain evident on radar south of the front. Overnight lows behind the front are expected to bottom out in the mid 60s to low 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances (generally 20-40%) remain in the forecast this afternoon and evening for areas mainly south of I-10. This is thanks to an upper-level disturbance, upslope flow, and a decaying cold front. A welcoming break from the heat for many is on the way this afternoon as highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s can be expected (except for the those along the Rio Grande where highs reach or exceed the century mark). However, the break is short-lived as temperatures bounce back in the mid-to-upper 90s for most on Saturday. Some spots along the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande look to see readings at or above the century mark. Low (10-20%) rain chances stick around Saturday, but become confined to areas in and around the Davis Mountains. Triple digit heat is on the way again late this weekend and into next week. Please see Long Term Discussion below for more details. Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Mid to upper ridging remains on track to build across the the Desert SW into Intermountain West this weekend Lows Saturday night range from the 70-75F range, 65F-70F over northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin and Marfa Plateau, and 75F-80F range near the Rio Grande. Highs Sunday rise into the 100-105F range, 95F-100F higher elevations and southeast Permian Basin, and 105-110F range along the Pecos River valley into northern Permian Basin, as well as Presidio Valley, with 110F-115F for the Big Bend. The strengthened ridging will keep rain chances very low (<5%), although development of thermal lows along a retreating lee trough will result in increased downsloping south/southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and 25 to 35 mph over the Guadalupes. Winds have decreased from previous runs, but given low RH and dew point temperatures below 40F in regions of strongest winds along with temperatures remaining above 95F, we are continuing to monitor the Guadalupes for fire weather concerns Sunday (more on this in the Fire Weather Discussion). Lows Sunday night remain similar to Saturday night, if not a few degrees warmer due to the warmer daytime temperatures taking longer to cool off.

Next week, a continued amplified ridging pattern holds as troughing over the eastern CONUS takes shape, resulting not only in warmer than average temperatures persisting but also weak west/northwest steering flow aloft allowing occasional storm systems and accompanying lift and moisture to brush northern parts of the area. The southern part of the storm track occasionally brushing the northern parts of the forecast area and providing lift and moisture will allow 20% to 30% shower/storm chances to develop each afternoon/evening over far northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. However, even then models are indicating rainfall largely remaining below a tenth of an inch and PWATs staying within the 1.00" to 1.25" range: more favorable for brief heavy rainfall rather than prolonged washouts. Highs begin the weekend similar to Sunday, before another wind shift to northerly as the circulation around the aforementioned thermal low helps reinforce southward passage of a weak cold front through the area. As a result, mid-week temperatures "cool" slightly back into the 95F-100F range, with 100F- 105F highs limited closer to the Pecos River valley and 105-110F highs limited to the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. We will also see a return to prevailing southeast winds. Given scouring of deeper Gulf moisture from the recent downsloping winds and hot weather however, this will not be accompanied by the cooler and more humid conditions we experienced earlier this month. In fact, by late week, hot and dry feeling hazardous heat is once again indicated for the Rio Grande basin into much of the Permian Basin despite continued humid, southeast upslope flow, with any storms that do form doing little to cool things off. Heat will remain the biggest impactful story. Follow proper heat safety precautions and continue to check the forecast for the latest information on forecast hot weather.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MVFR (brief and periodic LIFR) cigs are expected to continue this morning at HOB and MAF. MVFR cigs will also be possible at INK and PEQ before lifting to VFR this afternoon. Radar continues to show showers and thunderstorms across the area, currently impacting PEQ, INK, and FST. This activity should subside by 15Z/16Z before the potential of additional development this afternoon. Have opted to leave afternoon convection out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty in coverage and impacts. Afternoon activity may be added to the 18Z TAFs and amendments will be made as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 71 94 73 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 92 70 100 72 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 95 73 94 72 / 30 20 10 0 Fort Stockton 93 71 97 71 / 30 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 68 91 70 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 67 96 69 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 88 60 92 62 / 50 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 71 94 73 / 20 10 0 0 Odessa 88 71 94 72 / 30 10 0 0 Wink 92 71 98 72 / 20 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.