textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already saturated soils remain a concern across the SE NM plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin late this afternoon through tonight.

- Strong shear accompanying remnants of Hurricane Polo yields threat for localized damaging winds and a couple of brief spin- up tornadoes late this afternoon through tonight.

- A very brief period of high westerly winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong northeasterly gap winds will also be possible through Guadalupe Pass Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Hurricane Polo made landfall a little east of Guaymas Mexico per the 11 AM MT NHC Advisory. Water vapor imagery shows associated moisture being drawn into Mexico and toward southeast Arizona and southwestern New Mexico within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level low over western Arizona this afternoon. The upper low will track across Arizona through this evening and into western New Mexico by early Wednesday morning. The associated deep moisture and lift will spread into southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas late this afternoon and this evening. We expect numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop and advance into the Guadalupe Mountains, the southeast New Mexico Plains, as well as down into the Upper Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains region late this afternoon and this evening. This activity should eventually spread into the western and northern Permian Basin late this evening and into the overnight hours. There is some potential for a dry slot to spread into the central/southern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, which may tend to limit coverage somewhat over these locations late tonight. However, given the copious amounts of deep moisture with record precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches, we will keep POPs high across the forecast area going into the late evening and overnight hours. The primary concern will be heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with localized totals in excess of 3 inches which may quickly fall within the shield of heavier showers/storms tonight. The Flood Watch was expanded east to include the Upper Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through early Wednesday morning. Visible satellite imagery is also showing a zone of clearing skies over western and southwestern portions of the CWA this afternoon. The atmosphere should continue to destabilize with MLCAPE values ranging between 1000-1500 J/KG over these locations this afternoon. Deep layer shear will also be increasing over western portions of our CWA ahead of the advancing trough this afternoon and evening. Latest RAP forecast shows 35-45 kt of 0-6 km shear spreading from the western mountains into the southeast New Mexico plains by early this evening. The instability and shear will support a low-end damaging wind threat with the convective complex coming into our area late this afternoon/evening. A brief spin up tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given backed/low- level curvature to the flow with up to 100-200 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. Storms should gradually decrease in coverage or lift east/northeast of the area generally by 3-4 AM CDT.

The upper-level low continues to track over New Mexico on Wednesday before lifting toward the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles by late Wednesday night. A series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will translate across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, while a weak Pacific front moves into the area and becomes oriented from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend area by late Wednesday afternoon. Lift will be enhanced from the eastern/southern Permian Basin and into the Lower Trans Pecos region Wednesday afternoon and evening, where we expect another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Some of these storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with additional totals of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. The Flood Watch was expanded east to include the eastern Basin and down into Terrell County Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few storms may also become severe again over these locations Wednesday afternoon/evening with a damaging wind and perhaps low-end hail threat. Storms generally look to end by late Wednesday evening. Highs generally range in the upper 70s to mid 80s over western portions of our area behind the front and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over eastern and southern portions of the CWA ahead of it Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The upper-level trough slowly meanders over the forecast area on Thursday before another upper low pinches over west and southwest Texas Thursday into Friday. A cold front will move through our region during the day Thursday. Moisture will become more limited over our forecast area on Thursday behind the front, so convection if any should be isolated and mainly confined to far eastern parts of the forecast area ahead of the boundary. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop on Friday, with the better coverage confined to the higher terrain areas in the vicinity of the upper low. Surface high pressure builds into the central plains Friday and the resultant MSLP gradient may bring breezy conditions to our region Friday. A brief period of high gap winds will also be possible over the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridging builds back into the western U.S. this weekend into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers/ storms should mainly remain confined over central and southern parts of our forecast area along the stalled boundary this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will become more seasonal Friday through Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Iso to sct TS will be possible from issuance time through midnight this evening with storms moving generally from west to east. Visibility drops and gusty winds will accompany most convection. Outside of storms, winds will be sustained between 15-20kts with gusts around 25kts out of the southwest. Amendments will be necessary based on radar trends and timing of storm impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 89 65 87 / 60 40 50 10 Carlsbad 65 82 58 81 / 100 0 0 0 Dryden 74 94 71 90 / 60 30 50 10 Fort Stockton 72 90 65 85 / 60 40 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 60 69 54 70 / 90 0 0 0 Hobbs 66 82 57 81 / 90 0 0 0 Marfa 62 81 56 78 / 80 20 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 87 64 86 / 70 30 30 0 Odessa 72 87 65 85 / 70 30 20 0 Wink 71 88 63 86 / 80 10 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Andrews-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland- Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for Borden-Glasscock-Howard-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.