textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- A cold front Saturday brings slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend. - The cold front this weekend brings rain chances to the area late Friday night into Saturday morning (mainly for northernmost counties), then again Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Triple digit heat arrives for many Monday and Tuesday before a slight cool-down mid-to-late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Hot temperatures continue today across west Texas and southeast New Mexico thanks to the upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Highs once again largely top out near or above the century mark. A Heat Advisory remains in the effect this afternoon for the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and the Eddy County Plains. However, a shortwave is making its way across the northern and central Plains this morning. This shortwave will start to dive southeastward later today. In doing so, it allows a front to push southward across our area Saturday. This front will do two things for us. First of all, it will help cool temperatures down closer to seasonal norms Saturday. Highs generally top out in the low-to-mid 90s across the area. The second thing it will do is usher in low-to-medium rain chances for many locations. Initial chances (30-50%) look to be late Friday night and early Saturday morning as a cluster of showers and storms out ahead of the front moves into our northernmost counties, decaying as they move southward. Some guidance indicates additional scattered development is also possible Saturday afternoon and evening for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Trans-Pecos (more on that in the Long Term). In any case, the front will provide at least a brief respite from the widespread 100 degree temperatures we have been seeing for the past several days.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The beginning of the Long Term forecast remains on track for increased shower/storm chances and cooler temperatures thanks to an anticipated cold front. Increased lift and moisture ahead of the cold front bring low to medium (10-40%) shower/storm chances across southeast New Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and Upper/Lower Trans-Pecos Saturday night. At this time, the best chances of convection look to be over southeast New Mexico. Lower heights behind the cold front yield highs in the 90s for most on Sunday, with the hottest locations along the Rio Grande where readings are expected to reach or exceed the century mark.

The upper-level ridge begins to build into our region by early next week, allowing for afternoon highs to climb back into the lower triple digits for many. These locations include much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Trans Pecos. The hottest areas continue to be for those along the Rio Grande, especially in low- lying spots of the Big Bend. By mid-to-late next week, long-range model guidance depict the upper-level ridge breaking apart as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Lower heights associated with this pattern suggests that another slight cool-down will be in store, with highs mainly in the upper 90s. Overnight lows continue to be expected across most locations each night, with 60s in/near the higher terrain. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain southeasterly and generally light through much of today. Winds turn northeasterly to northerly tonight/early Saturday morning as a front nears the area. Some showers and storms are expected to move into the area from the north overnight, but have held off on including PROB30s for -TSRA for any terminals at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 75 97 71 / 0 20 20 10 Carlsbad 105 75 97 71 / 0 20 20 30 Dryden 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Stockton 102 75 96 71 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 98 72 89 67 / 0 20 20 20 Hobbs 103 71 94 68 / 10 30 40 20 Marfa 99 66 91 64 / 0 0 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 96 71 / 0 20 30 10 Odessa 101 75 95 71 / 0 20 40 10 Wink 103 75 97 71 / 0 10 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.