textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Monday. Isolated to scattered storms are expected across the eastern Permian Basin extending into the Big Bend this afternoon and early evening.

- Another storm system is forecast to impact the region by early to mid-week. Heavy rainfall is expected with this system, which will elevate the risk for flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Radar imagery as of 3 AM CDT show thunderstorms dissipating across the eastern Permian Basin. Latest satellite imagery shows upper-level ridging building into the region. As a result, drier and continued warm conditions are in store today. Disturbances in the flow aloft and broad surface troughing extending from SW OK into W TX will provide isolated to scattered storm coverage for areas across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend region during the afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V profiles, sufficient to high DCAPE values (800-1500 J/kg), high PWATs (75th to 90th climatological percentile), and sufficient deep-layer shear signaling a heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat associated with the strongest storms. The greatest potential for a strong storm or two look to occur mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Davis Mountains during the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s for most locations.

Tonight, lows are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s. The aforementioned upper ridge begins to shift east as an upper-level storm system translates across southern California. This system, along with Tropical Storm Polo ushers mid to upper-level moisture into the western half of the region heading into Monday. As a result, rain chances increase Monday afternoon across far West Texas. Rain chances increase Monday night lasting through at least the middle of the week with remnants of Polo and the upper-level storm system impacting the region. More details can be found in the long-term discussion and the potential for more flash flooding.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A wet and cooler weather pattern takes shape beginning Monday night lasting through at least the middle part of the work week. This is thanks to remnants of Polo and an upper-level storm system moving near the region. Long-range guidance has the remnants of Polo being absorbed into the upper-level storm system. This will provide abundant mid-level Pacific moisture while lee cyclogenesis draws in Gulf moisture at the lower levels. Areawide rain chances are expected by late Monday night lasting through Wednesday. Rain will begin across the western portions of the forecast area Monday night and shift eastward heading into Tuesday. Guidance has indicated Tuesday will be the "rainiest" day with abundant moisture from both features. Ensemble guidance also suggests PWATs reaching near and even exceeding daily maximum climatological values throughout Tuesday. Given these anomalous PWATs, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is going to be the main concern. Long-range ensemble and deterministic models are trending towards the highest rainfall amounts remaining along and north of the Pecos River, with the exception of locations in Culberson County. Uncertainty still exists in exact amounts, timing, and impacts given any minor shift in both storm systems will alter potential impacts. We will continue to monitor trends closely.

Besides the rain, a cold front is forecast to move through the region sometime on Wednesday/Wednesday night bringing cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures (mid 70s to low 80s) are expected behind the front Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure builds in from the north. Moisture wrapping around the surface low will provide low chances (10-30%) of rainfall across the eastern half of the area late week. Temperatures look to stay near normal for early October standards being in the mid 70s to low 80s by next weekend.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow, although some models bring in a weak boundary from the northwest Sunday afternoon. Chances of convection are slim, but a fairly widespread, low-based cu field is anticipated by noon Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 70 96 72 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 89 63 89 67 / 0 0 10 70 Dryden 98 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 69 96 72 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 82 64 81 63 / 0 0 20 80 Hobbs 90 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 50 Marfa 86 61 86 63 / 30 0 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 94 70 94 73 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 95 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.