textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon north of I-20 as winds increase, relative humidity falls bellow 15 percent, and temperatures rise well above average.

- A strong cold front arrives overnight with gusty north winds bringing much cooler temperatures and blowing dust.

- Scattered showers/storms are possible overnight across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Summer-like temperatures and critical fire weather return this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front expected to arrive overnight. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and deep layer mixing will shove a dryline (currently backed up against the higher terrain) east this morning. Dewpoints will drop quickly into the 20s as westerly winds increase above 20 mph for most locations along and north of I-20. This will create a large area of critical fire weather conditions over increasingly dry fuels. Will upgrade most of the current watch to a Red Flag Warning and add a few locations further southwest. See the fire weather discussion below for more details. No changes are needed for the High Wind Warning for today as conditions look pretty borderline for the Guadalupe Mountains outside of any propagating mountain waves where gusts could approach 70+ mph. Strong downslope flow will push tempertures well above normal once again with many locations touching 90 degrees. There is a low (15%) chance of a storm or two firing off the dryline over the Lower Trans Pecos this evening, otherwise we will stay dry today.

The dryline will retreat by evening as a strong cold front moves in from the north. Scattered storms are expected to develop across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front moves through. QPF will stay generally under a tenth of an inch unless under a heavier storm. This front will arrive across the northern Permian Basin by midnight, quickly pushing to the Rio Grande by sunrise. Strong north winds will bring patchy blowing dust initially as gusts reach 40+ mph. Gap winds in the Guadalupe Mountains are likely to hit 50-60 mph for several hours behind the front so have issued a separate High Wind Watch for that event. Temperatures will fall behind the front with lows Saturday morning in the 30s and 40s north of I-20. Northeast winds will gradually decrease during the afternoon with highs running about 10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

We are looking at a chilly start to the new week with temperatures in the 30s and 40s Sunday morning. We may even touch the freezing mark in northern parts of Lea County. Afternoon temperatures will stay cool as clouds increase ahead of our next weather system. Showers and even a few storms will develop late Sunday across N. Mexico and move north overnight. This wave of rain will lift north across the area through Monday morning, but don't look for much rain. We will initially have to overcome a very dry airmass which will limit rain amounts to generally under a tenth.

After another cool day Monday, temperatures head back above normal the rest of the week. Mid level ridging and strong subsidence will keep us mostly dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR prevailing as most terminals although KHOB has seen visibility lower briefly to 4SM. Seeing some low cigs just east of KMAF so may need to amend. A dryline will quickly scour out the moisture later this morning with west winds becoming gusty behind it. Strong winds will diminish around sunset before switching to the north behind a cold front overnight. Winds will increase significantly behind the front with gusts near 40 kts possible by 18/12Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

An upper trough will move east onto the Plains this afternoon, helping to increase mid level flow across much of the southern High Plains. At the surface, a strengthening low will promote strong southwest winds 20-25 mph (higher in the mountains). Poor overnight humidity recoveries west of the Pecos River will encourage RH in the single digits by peak afternoon heating. RFTI values will climb to near 6/7 north of I-20 and these conditions amid receptive fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions. A sharp windshift will occur overnight as a cold front passes with gusts of up to 50 mph continuing for a few hours behind the boundary. Slowly increasing relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm chances overnight will remain east of the critical areas where fuels have improved due to recent rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 90 51 69 41 / 0 30 10 0 Carlsbad 87 49 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 93 59 72 51 / 10 20 30 10 Fort Stockton 92 54 71 47 / 0 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 76 46 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 44 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 82 45 67 38 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 90 51 69 43 / 0 20 10 0 Odessa 89 52 69 43 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 90 51 71 43 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.