textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM MDT /2 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for the Guadalupe, Davis, Chinati, and Delaware Mountains, as well as Chisos Basin.

- Hazardous heat continues through Friday, after which a cold front Saturday will bring slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, before a warm-up next week. - The weak cold front this weekend will result in a chance of rain, mainly over Southeast New Mexico.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge parked over northeastern New Mexico, a little farther west than 24 hours ago. Although it hasn't moved much from yesterday, models weaken it today, decreasing thicknesses and shaving a couple of degrees off of yesterday's highs. That said, many locations should still hit triple digits, and highs in the mountains warrant a Heat Advisory this afternoon/early evening.

Tonight, unseasonably warm overnight minimums continue, mainly due to a recurring LLJ every night, occasionally assisted by mid/high clouds to retard radiational cooling. Overnight lows will come in ~ 5-7 F above climatology. Unfortunately, there's no end in sight to these warmer temperatures.

Thursday, the ridge develops down to southern New Mexico and begins strengthening, adding maybe a degree or so in places to today's highs.

Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday, the LREF and global models meander the ridge to eastern Arizona. However, it's also forecast to strengthen, increasing local thicknesses to yield the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau ~ 7-9 F above normal, bringing most locations back into the triple digits, if they aren't already there. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed.

Friday night, a rare treat for this time of year is in store for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as am upper trough digging through the MS Valley sends a cold front towards the area, resulting in a chance of convection mainly in Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front itself arrives either Saturday morning or early afternoon, depending on the model of choice, continuing chances of convection Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly over Southeast New Mexico. For those who prefer cooler weather, highs Saturday afternoon should average ~ 2-3 F cooler than Friday, keeping most locations in the double digits. The front will continue pushing through the CWA Saturday night and Sunday, keeping highs Sunday within a degree or so of Saturday.

Unfortunately, this "cooling" will be ephemeral, as highs most locations bounce back into the triple digits most locations Monday and Tuesday, likely warranting more Heat Advisories. Not surprising, as this is climatologically the warmest time of the year for these parts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a high cloud or two. Convective temperatures are too high for a cu field except for KFST, over which a few could form late morning. Generally light flow is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 100 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 96 65 96 66 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.