textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026 - A heat wave is expected to begin today, lasting through the weekend.

- High temperatures in portions of the Big Bend are forecast to be between 105 and 110 degrees Wednesday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Surface observations show winds are already southerly at most locations and upper level analysis shows a ridge moving in from the west. This spells for a much warmer day for today compared to yesterday with highs reaching about 10-15 degrees warmer. Many locations will reach into the low to mid 90s with low 100s across the low desert of Big Bend. While this is quite above normal, these temperatures will fall a few degrees short of any records. Despite generally light winds and clear skies, overnight lows settle in the 60s for most. The upper ridge continues to move eastward over the Great Plains by Wednesday and daytime highs will respond by being another few degrees higher with many spots in the upper 90s. Several areas will see their first 100F day of the year, particularly along the Pecos River Valley. Precipitation is not expected during the short term period.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The upper-level ridge deamplifies and shifts to the east on Thursday, bringing quazi-zonal flow aloft. This will allow for afternoon highs to remain in the 90s for most despite lower geopotential heights. Some spots in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande can expect to see highs reach the triple digits (105 F or greater in portions of the Big Bend). Meanwhile, surface troughing develops near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends into the Big Bend region. This yields breezy westerly to southwesterly winds across the western half of the area and breezy southerly winds farther east. Stronger winds are forecast to occur in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, but should remain below High Wind criteria. Similar conditions can be expected on Friday. However, high temperatures are currently expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday's as downsloping winds expand farther east.

Ensemble guidance continues to show another trough approaching our region by late Saturday afternoon/early evening. A dryline may retreat to the west enough to allow for increased moisture, lift, and instability across our far eastern counties. For now, there is a low (10-15%) chance of shower and thunderstorms for these areas due to high uncertainty in moisture quality and positioning of the dryline. Unseasonably hot temperatures continue into the weekend, with widespread afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 90s being maintained. Some locations could still see triple digit heat across portions of the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande (105 F or greater in portions of the Big Bend). Lows each night are forecast to be in the 60s for most each night throughout the extended.

Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 93 63 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 63 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 92 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 87 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 93 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 93 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.