textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Patchy freezing fog/mist over parts of the Permian Basin and SE NM plains through mid-morning. When visibilities get low, take it slow!

- A quiet weather pattern persists with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions from Sunday afternoon through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 141 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the Pacific Southwest into Great Basin and mid to upper troughing from the Ohio Valley into southern Mid- Atlantic will continue to setup northwest flow over the area, allowing for periodic weak cold fronts. Night Fog satellite imagery early this morning indicates little in the way of high level clouds, but approaching lower level clouds developing from northeast to southwest in association passage of the aforementioned weak cold front. Consequently, added regions of patchy and freezing fog for parts of the Permian Basin and SE NM plains to grids for Saturday morning given temperatures and dew point temperatures falling into the 20s F and yielding T-Td spreads less than 5F, with forecast visibilities dropping below 5 miles, light winds, and an approaching cold front from the northeast advecting in a colder and higher relative humidity air mass. Freezing fog/mist is forecast to dissipate by mid-morning, but continued CAA behind this morning's cold front will result in highs not rising above 60 F everywhere except for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend, and not rising above the 50s F north of a Culberson County to Upper Trans Pecos to Pecos River Valley line. The coldest high temperatures indicated in the most recent NBM run are over the Western Low Rolling Plains where highs remain below 40F. 25th to 75th percentile ensembles for temperatures indicate a similar pattern of coldest highs to the northeast and warmest highs to the southwest. Northerly winds again become light and variable by evening as the cold front clears the area. Tonight under light and variable winds and dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture remaining in the 20s, lows also once again fall below freezing for most of the area except for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend, where temperatures by Sunday morning only fall into the mid 30s F, both in the NBM and ensembles.

As ridging over the Great Basin develops east into the Desert SW and Southern Great Plains, the accompanying large scale sinking motion allows temperatures to climb closer to seasonable values and into the mid 50s to mid 60s F range, while dew point temperatures still largely remaining in the 20s F. With winds again veering to southerly and increased ridging aloft, lows are finally forecast to stay above freezing for most of the area north of the Rio Grande basin and Stockton Plateau into southern Permian Basin Sunday night, with near to below freezing temperatures elsewhere still a few degrees warmer than previous nights. The large scale sinking motion and warmer and drier air will also keep precipitation chances out of the forecast, but will this mark the beginning of a return to consistently warmer temperatures? Read the long term discussion for more.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged for next week. Warm temperatures kick off the work week thanks to an upper-level ridge axis placed over the region. Monday afternoon temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s regionwide. By late Monday, the ridge axis shifts east, allowing a shortwave trough to push through the southern Rockies. This trough will send a weak cold front to the region during this timeframe. As a result, cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected for locations along and north of Interstate 10, while areas south of this corridor are anticipated to be warmer in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. Guidance continues to show an upper-level trough over the Central Plains on Wednesday. This will create embedded shortwaves within northwest flow aloft, resulting in very low (~10%) rain chances across far southeast New Mexico on Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, these very low chances will be prevalent near the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region. Much of the favorable ascent and moisture looks to stay east of the region, though uncertainty still remains in the positioning of the trough. Details of this system should be ironed out in the next couple of days. Once the aforementioned trough exits the region, upper-level ridging builds in from the west providing more dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures late next week into the weekend.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A weak cold front passage from beginning of TAF period through 17Z-20Z will deliver MVFR or lower CIGs to terminals across the Permian Basin and Lea County, with highest confidence in MVFR or lower VIS for terminals in HOB followed by MAF, and decreased confidence regarding extent of lower CIGs and VIS farther to the southwest over terminals such as INK. Winds veer to southerly at terminals by 16Z-19Z as conditions lift back to VFR everywhere. Wind shift to north/northwest for terminals on SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos by 09Z Saturday into end of period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 42 24 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 46 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 54 28 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 54 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 46 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 43 23 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 45 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 45 27 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 47 26 58 31 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.