textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Warmer and drier weather persists through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers/storms return Thursday night and continue each day through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough centered just east of the Bay Area, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under westerly flow aloft. This feature is forecast to dig a little southeast by early Thursday evening, not changing the synoptic pattern for us very much.

Closer to home, thicknesses begin increasing under abundant insolation in the wake of yesterday's trough, resulting in highs this afternoon ~ 7-9 F above yesterday. These will still average a little over 5 F below climatology, exacerbated by wet soils from recent rainfall. CAMs develop isolated convection this afternoon, mainly invof the Davis Mountains.

Tonight, convection is forecast to develop over the South Plains, and some of this could develop down into the Western Low Rolling Plains. A 30 kt LLJ is forecast to develop, adding a couple of degrees to this morning's minimums.

Thursday, thicknesses continue to increase, and highs will be ~ 2-3 F warmer than this afternoon, but still a couple of degrees below normal. Hi-res models bring disturbances through southwest flow aloft into the Guadalupes/Southeast New Mexico, resulting in isolated convection there.

This activity will increase Thursday night to almost all of Southeast New Mexico. The LLJ is forecast to increase to 40 kts adding another 2-3 F to overnight lows.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The Long Term period begins with additional rain chances (20-40%) across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, the dryline sets up somewhere across portions of southeast New Mexico and extends south into far west Texas. These features will provide sufficient forcing for ascent for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance show sufficient low/mid-level lapse rates (7.0-8.0 C/km), ample instability (1000-2000 J/kg), and 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. This suggests a favorable environment for a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. However, discrepancies in model solutions keep our confidence low at this time. Otherwise, surface troughing yields breezy southerly to southeasterly winds, drawing in more Gulf moisture. Afternoon highs are still expected to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for most, except some locations along the Rio Grande reaching mid 90s to low 100s.

By Saturday, the dryline shifts east and weaker forcing aloft yields lower chances (10-20%) of isolated showers and storms across the Lower Trans-Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. Breezy conditions are expected to continue on Saturday and downslope flow behind the dryline yields warmer afternoon highs (low-to-mid 90s for most). Upper-level ridging builds over our region by Sunday, yielding afternoon highs in the 90s for most. At this time, the dryline looks to remain prevalent across the area, potentially bringing more chances of rain across portions of our area through early next week. As per usual, we will continue to monitor trends and adjust our thinking according to new data.

Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. A widespread cu field is expected this afternoon, w/bases ~ 5-7 kft AGL. A few cu are anticipated near the end of the forecast period invof KFST, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 86 65 87 / 10 0 0 20 Carlsbad 61 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 30 Dryden 67 89 69 93 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 63 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 40 Guadalupe Pass 61 81 63 83 / 0 10 30 20 Hobbs 58 85 61 85 / 10 10 20 40 Marfa 53 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 63 85 66 86 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 62 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.