textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Near-Critical fire weather conditions persist across southeast New Mexico and in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.

- Another storm system pushes in Friday, bringing low to medium (20-60%) rain chances during the afternoon. A couple of storms may be strong to severe over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

- Below to near-normal temperatures this weekend and through the first half of next week behind a cold front Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest. This low will track southeast into the Central Rockies/Plains by Friday. Meanwhile, surface lee troughing brings breezy (15-25 mph, gusts up to 35 mph) southwesterly winds across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this afternoon/early evening, with the highest winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Breezy conditions, low relative humidity values, and dry fuels keep fire weather concerns near-critical this afternoon through early evening (see Fire Weather Discussion below for more details). As such, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening. Highs this afternoon generally top out into the 80s, with a few spots in the Trans pecos and along the Rio Grande reaching the 90s.

By Friday, a dryline is forecast to set up somewhere along the Texas/New Mexico border and extend south towards the Big Bend region. Meanwhile, the aforementioned upper-level low and its associated trough sends a cold front into northern portions of our area by Friday evening. Ahead of the dryline, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across the eastern half of our CWA. Current rain chances (generally 20-60%) Friday extend from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend and Lower Trans-Pecos, increasing with eastward extent. A couple of storms may become strong to severe across eastern portions of the Permian Basin and south towards the Lower Trans-Pecos. However, the greatest threat of severe weather remains to our northeast where upper-level support is more favorable. Gusty winds and hail will be the main hazards with the strongest of storms that do develop given modest (~6.5-7.0 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. However, CAMs may be a bit too aggressive on these values as there is evidence of convective contamination. Forecast hodographs show elongated profiles, setting up a favorable environment for splitting storms. Guidance shows additional development of shower/storm activity during the overnight hours as the aforementioned front sweeps through the region. Though, the severe threat is expected to subside by that time. Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Behind the cold front, breezy northeasterly to easterly winds and significantly cooler temperatures are expected. Afternoon highs on Saturday top out into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most. Meanwhile, any remaining shower and storm activity gets pushed south into the Lower Trans-Pecos and Big Bend region throughout the day. Low to medium (20-60%) rain chances are expected for these areas through Sunday morning. By Sunday, shortwaves embedded in the upper-level flow and easterly to southeasterly upslope flow at the surface bring rain chances (20-70%, up to 80%) mainly west of the Pecos River. The highest chances extend from the Trans Pecos/Marfa Plateau to the Presidio and Rio Grande Valleys (including the Big Bend National and State Parks). Guidance shows shower and storm activity diminishing by Monday afternoon. Temperatures Sunday through the early part of next week remain below normal, with afternoon highs in the mid-to- upper 60s for most (except 50s to low 60s in higher terrain). Temperatures gradually become more seasonable by the middle of next week as ridging develops over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Southwesterly to southerly winds continue through this evening, with brief periods of breezy conditions (10-15kts) at CNM, HOB, and MAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged. ERCs remain near or above the 75th percentile across much of the region, particularly for westernmost portions of the area. Meanwhile, min RHs once again drop below 15% for many locations this afternoon and evening. While winds will be weaker today than yesterday, breezy (15-25 mph) winds will overlap critical min RHs in southeast New Mexico, yielding Near- Critical conditions. Because of this and considering the very dry fuels in southeast New Mexico, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect across southeast New Mexico and in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains the rest of this afternoon and evening. Elevated to Near-Critical conditions persist Friday afternoon and evening for these same locations (mainly driven by critical min RHs). With that said, at least a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement may be issued during the next forecast package. By Saturday morning, a front sweeps across the area, bringing in below-normal temperatures and improving min RHs (although northeasterly to easterly winds behind the front will be breezy).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 63 86 52 70 / 0 60 70 40 Carlsbad 55 89 51 72 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 65 87 63 75 / 0 50 50 50 Fort Stockton 64 89 56 71 / 10 40 30 30 Guadalupe Pass 55 78 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 52 87 47 70 / 0 10 30 10 Marfa 50 83 47 70 / 0 20 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 63 87 53 70 / 10 40 60 30 Odessa 63 87 53 69 / 10 40 60 30 Wink 59 89 53 72 / 0 20 30 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.