textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in and around the higher terrain (20-30%, with 10-20% chances in the Permian Basin and in southeast New Mexico). A storm or two may produce gusty winds.

- Showers and storms become more numerous in coverage with the approach of an upper level system Monday night and Tuesday. A few storms may become severe with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding also possible.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a ridge moving across the southwestern CONUS, with yesterday's shortwave departing to the northeast. For today, the approaching ridge will help keep rain chances lower overall than in previous days. That being said, upsloping southeasterly winds at the surface coupled with subtle disturbances rounding the ridge are allowing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near the higher terrain in our westernmost zones today. The best chances (20-30%) will be in/around the Davis Mountains towards Brewster and Terrell counties. Convective-Allowing Models also indicate additional isolated activity may develop in the Permian Basin and in southeast New Mexico thanks to disturbances aloft and remnant boundaries from yesterday's convection (10-20% chances). Severe weather is not anticipated, though a few storms may become strong, producing gusty winds. Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while lows drop down into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s tonight for most locations.

The ridge moves across our area tonight into tomorrow. By Monday night, another shortwave trough approaches the region while moisture increases to the west. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) once again increase across westernmost portions of the area, slowly shifting eastward into Tuesday morning. We will be keeping an eye out for locally heavy rainfall leading to instances of flash flooding during this time. Monday's highs and lows end up similar to today's. Shower and thunderstorm chances persist into the beginning of the Long Term period, as does the potential for flash flooding (and an increasing chance of strong to severe storms).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tuesday continues to look like an active weather day across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. Upper-level difluence will continue to spread over our region on Tuesday ahead of a trough digging over the western CONUS. Synoptic scale lift along with increasing deep-layer moisture (precipitable water values rising to 1-1.4 inches) over locations along and east of the mountains will favor the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (60-80% coverage) across our forecast area during the day Tuesday. Short range model solution show a zone of moderate instability with CAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 J/KG developing across the Lower Trans Pecos into the Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon with 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. Shear and instability profiles will favor the potential of severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds over locations along and east of the Pecos River, particularly from the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding over a few locations Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday will trend below normal with highs in the 70s and 80s across all but the Big Bend on Tuesday given the increased cloud cover and rain/storm chances. A good chance of showers and storms will continue across the Permian Basin into Tuesday night before most activity shifts to our east by early Wednesday morning. Additional weak shortwave impulses in the flow aloft will at least support a low chance of showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin into the day Wednesday. Ridging aloft will meanwhile build over New Mexico into far west Texas during the day Wednesday, with slightly warmer and drier conditions returning to most of our forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Upper-level ridging will amplify over our forecast area Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will trend warmer in the upper 80s to mid 90s underneath this feature late this week. Dry weather conditions are currently anticipated on Thursday. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge axis may translate over our area and bring a low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms across areas mainly east of the Pecos River Friday afternoon and evening. Southwesterly flow aloft may develop by next weekend ahead of another trough over the western CONUS. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop across the region through the weekend. Temperatures remain close to normal with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with morning lows mostly ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions through 00Z-03Z, followed by MVFR or lower conditions in scattered showers/storms for terminals on the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos into the end of the period. Southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots 16Z-19Z, with higher sustained winds and gusts in showers/storms. Main impact of showers/storms at terminals will be heavy rain and lightning, and in the strongest storms, the additional threat of damaging winds and some hail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 90 65 81 61 / 0 20 70 80 Carlsbad 94 60 80 57 / 10 70 60 10 Dryden 92 69 88 65 / 0 10 60 40 Fort Stockton 91 64 84 61 / 0 60 70 20 Guadalupe Pass 84 58 75 56 / 30 70 50 0 Hobbs 90 59 76 55 / 0 70 80 20 Marfa 87 53 82 50 / 10 70 50 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 65 80 61 / 0 40 80 60 Odessa 89 65 79 61 / 0 50 80 50 Wink 92 63 80 59 / 0 70 80 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.