textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today into tonight, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and in southeast New Mexico. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and strong winds.

- Near-normal highs expected through this weekend behind a cold front. Temperatures begin to warm again early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

An outflow-reinforced cold front is making its way across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this morning. Strong to severe winds, brief dusty conditions, cooler temperatures, and scattered showers and storms have accompanied this boundary. It will continue to make its way southward, eventually stalling out in the Trans-Pecos later this morning and into the afternoon. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and evening thanks to the boundary's presence, mainly for portions of the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and southeast New Mexico (where another complex of storms may develop overnight). Chances range from 20-50%. Heavy rainfall along the boundary or associated with the cluster of storms in southeast New Mexico may lead to instances of flash flooding. Storms that develop may also produce strong to severe winds and frequent lightning. Convection begins to wane late tonight/early Sunday morning, and only low rain chances (10-20%) are maintained Sunday afternoon in and around the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos. Besides that, most locations get a break from 100 degree heat both today and tomorrow. Highs top out in the low-to-mid 90s across much of the area both days (upper 90s and around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Ridging attempts to build over the Desert Southwest again by the beginning of the Long Term period. This allows highs to once again jump into the upper 90s and just above 100 degrees for many locations Monday and Tuesday. However, guidance indicates the ridge will be more broad and generally not as potent as we saw last week, thanks in part to shortwaves moving across northern portions of the CONUS. Additionally, we look to remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge. As a result, temperatures look less hot overall than what we experienced during the latter portion of July. By the middle part of next week and through the end of the forecast period, highs tick down a degree or two relative to Monday and Tuesday, remaining consistently in the upper 90s for most locations. Rain chances through the Long Term look very low at this time (<20%).

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Northerly to northeasterly winds remain light most of today, gradually becoming southeasterly by this evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon and evening. The highest confidence right now is at HOB and CNM, where PROB30s have been included for -TSRA after 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 71 99 73 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 97 72 98 73 / 20 40 0 0 Dryden 100 74 98 74 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 71 96 73 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 67 90 68 / 30 40 0 0 Hobbs 93 68 96 70 / 30 20 0 0 Marfa 92 64 90 63 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 71 97 73 / 60 10 0 0 Odessa 94 71 96 73 / 50 10 0 0 Wink 96 71 97 73 / 20 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.