textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend, with near record highs possible Saturday.

- An approaching system brings strong winds to the Guadalupe/ Delaware Mountains and nearby plains Saturday afternoon into Sunday, prompting a High Wind Watch.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as winds increase behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The heat is on, at least for a couple of days. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge just off the coast of Baja, persisting dry, northwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Closer to home, temperatures are soaring as a westerly downslope warming component develops, increasing thicknesses for afternoon highs averaging around 15 F above climatology.

Tonight, mostly clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling, but this will be negated by a 35 kt LLJ that will keep the boundary layer mixed, resulting in overnight minimums around 10 F above normal.

Saturday, leeside troughing on the Front Range will increase westerlies, developing a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupe by late afternoon, and increasing highs ~ 3-4 F over today's temperatures. River valleys and adjacent areas could see 90 F for the first time this year, making it feel more like late May than mid March. We've issued a High Wind Watch Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for the Guadalupes/Delawares. Additional warnings/advisories may be needed for Sunday, but that's too far out to try to nail down attm. BLDU is a given, as soils are quite parched.

Saturday night, winds will be slow to abate, and look to remain elevated, as a 50 kt LLJ out of the west keeps mixing in play. This will combine with increasing high clouds to keep overnight lows a good 15-20 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Windy conditions, enhanced fire weather, and a cold front start off the long term forecast period. An upper level trough digs from the Rockies into the Southern Plains Sunday. With the jet streak of this feature passing in close proximity to our region, then the eventual arrival of a cold front, winds increase and remain gusty through much of the day Sunday. The development of a mountain wave signature shall result in High Wind criteria over the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory criteria may be possible over the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain in west Texas Sunday afternoon as well. Strong winds would produce the risk of reduced visibility due to blowing dust and increased fire weather concerns, especially given forecast relative humidity values in the low teens to single digits. As such, be on the look out for possible products of the like in the near future. Otherwise, temperatures ahead of Sunday's front still look to generally top out in the 80s to 90s (mainly near the Rio Grande). Behind the front, temperatures max out in the 70s. As it stands, the cold front is progged to start pushing into our region Sunday afternoon, maintaining gusty winds across the area as it does so. Winds look to calm down as we head through the night. By Monday morning, temperatures will have chilled into the 20s and 30s, with the coldest conditions expected in our northern counties.

The trough shifts eastward Monday and overall calmer winds are on tap as surface high pressure builds in behind the previous day's cold front. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s (areas west of the Pecos River). Monday night will again be chilly, with lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. On the back side of the trough, an upper ridge begins to build back over the southwestern CONUS Tuesday. Meanwhile, lee troughing to our north steers southerly winds. In tandem, these bring about a warming trend to finish out the long term period. We can expect highs in the 70s and 80s Tuesday, widespread 80s Wednesday, then 80s and 90s Thursday. Closing out the week, many locations could be warming into the upper 90s. No rainfall is in sight through the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR prevails with westerly winds becoming gusty by Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 49 91 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 89 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 51 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 87 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 42 83 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 50 90 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 50 88 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 46 90 56 83 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.