textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) today across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards for the strongest storms.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

- Very windy conditions expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains beginning this morning lasting through the evening.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level low near the Desert Southwest. Strong southwesterly flow aloft over the region allows for strong to breezy winds and another round of storms today. Starting off with the winds, a 500mb jet max is expected to be positioned over central New Mexico. Guidance continues to show a mountain wave signature at both the 500 and 700mb levels across the Guadalupe Mountains. This signature suggests strong winds over these areas, therefore, a High Wind Warning is in effect until Tuesday evening. Strong winds are also anticipated over the Eddy County Plains this afternoon and early evening prompting a Wind Advisory. The dryline looks to advance in the eastern portions of the forecast area, keeping dry conditions for southeast New Mexico allowing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Dense high cloud cover is going to limit the fire weather threat. See the fire weather discussion for more details below!

Another round of storms are anticipated once again this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage and chances increase due to the additional lift from the approaching upper-level storm system and Pacific front. Storms look to develop in the mid afternoon hours across the Lower Trans Pecos. Further storm development takes shape as the dryline retreats back west in the early evening hours mainly across portions of the Permian Basin. A couple of storms may become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail, thanks to sufficient deep-layer wind shear and instability. CAMs seem to be over-estimating instability (1500-3000 J/kg) for eastern portions of the area. Broken cloud coverage throughout the afternoon will limit instability, therefore, limiting the severe weather threat. Nonetheless, the environment is still favorable for a few strong storms to occur.

Wednesday, the upper-level storm system moves further east into the Central Plains. This will keep the dryline east enough where low chances (10-20%) for isolated storms exist for far eastern portions during the afternoon and early evening. The aforementioned Pacific front cools temperatures slightly with highs ranging from the upper 70s and 80s for most locations.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the 80s and 90s during the latter part of this week, with Friday being the warmest day due to southwesterly downslope flow. The dryline we've been talking about the last several days could stay west enough for a small (10-20%) chance of a shower/storm to develop in the Permian Basin Thursday evening. By Friday, an upper-level trough moves across the Central Rockies and into the Central Great Plains. Meanwhile, the dryline moves back west near the Texas/New Mexico border and extends south towards the Big Bend. However, the best forcing for ascent is expected to be off to our north and wind will be the main impact portions of our area feels from this system. We are keeping a close eye on Friday in terms of fire weather as strong westerly winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels are forecast across southeast New Mexico (see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details).

By Friday night into Saturday, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area, resulting in northerly to northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. We may have to increase winds in our forecast behind the front towards the end of the week as the NBM often handles these systems poorly. Afternoon highs drop into the 70s for most on Saturday, with even cooler temperatures on Sunday. This is due to increased cloud cover, chances of rain (10-40% mainly south of I-20), and easterly upslope flow. Cluster analysis depicts the return of upper-level ridging by early next week, signaling another temperature warmup. However, there is uncertainty in how much of a warmup we should expect as there is currently large spread amongst the ensemble members. This is likely due to differences in model solutions regarding the positioning and strength of the ridge. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light southerly and southwesterly winds increase by the late morning to early afternoon hours across all terminals. Occasional gusts up to 40 kts may occur at CNM, while areas elsewhere with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds are expected to decrease after sunset. Included -TSRA PROB30 at FST due to increasing confidence of storm development. Opted to not include a PROB30 for MAF at this time, though amendments may be needed in the next package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Fire weather conditions increase today as stronger winds and MinRHs between 10-15 percent are expected along with drier fuels. Cloudy skies and light fuel loading will be limiting factors in the threat for rapid fire growth. As such, we have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch and opted not to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning, but instead issued a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week for southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin, with Friday being the day to focus on most as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn lowers MinRHs into the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels raise RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County in west Texas. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. However, monitoring the latest forecast is highly suggested as things may change. Friday night into Saturday, winds are expected to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and improved MinRHs improve fire weather conditions, though winds are expected to be breezy.

Greening

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 86 62 86 54 / 40 30 20 0 Carlsbad 86 55 82 48 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 84 64 87 61 / 40 30 20 10 Fort Stockton 88 62 86 56 / 20 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 72 51 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 84 54 81 48 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 78 48 78 44 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 85 55 / 20 30 10 0 Odessa 86 62 84 55 / 20 30 10 0 Wink 87 59 85 50 / 10 20 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains.