textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1001 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Widespread rain showers continue this afternoon before tapering off tonight.

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

- Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances (generally 40-80%) return Friday and Saturday, with the best chances across the northern and eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VIS/IR satellite imagery and radar this morning depicted low clouds and rain showers moving northeast into the Big Bend, Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Permian Basin hours earlier than model guidance had indicated. Increasingly, it is looking like timing of heaviest showers will be earlier than expected as well, with medium to high (45% to 75%) rain probabilities from Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau into Big Bend and Terrell County this afternoon and into the eastern Permian Basin by this evening, with general southwest to northeast precipitation motion persisting. Ensemble PWATs 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal and in the 0.70" to 0.90" range early this afternoon rise into the 1.00" to 1.20" range later this afternoon into evening. This increase in atmospheric moisture coincides with overrunning behind a cold front passage from the north providing forcing for ascent and moisture convergence. Aloft, a low amplitude mid to upper disturbance over northern MX plateau developing east/northeast provides additional forcing for ascent and saturation of the mid to upper troposphere - in turn increasing instability/CAPE aloft more conducive to heavier showers reaching the surface before evaporating (despite dew point depressions at least 10F to 15F in drier near surface air). Temperatures rising into mid 60s to lower 70s F for most of the area while dew point temperatures remain in the 40s F earlier today will prevent low cloud ceilings initially. However, moistening of the air column over time and at the surface (as dew point temperatures over most of the regions seeing precipitation rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s F) allow lower cloud ceilings to develop later today into the overnight. SPC only has the area outlined in a general thunderstorm category as warm mid-level temperatures limit buoyancy despite colder temperatures aloft. With broken mid to low level cloud cover for most of the area, especially Big Bend into Permian Basin, ensuing limited diurnal heating will prevent highs from rising above the mid 70s F north and west of the Big Bend into Terrell County, and above the lower to mid 60s F for higher elevations, including the Marfa Plateau. Temperatures after sunset remain in the 50s F in the more humid air where precipitation occurred today while they fall into the 40s F by early morning over higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin. CAA behind the cold front passage this afternoon and dew point temperatures decreasing again overnight into the 30s and 40s F eventually leads to temperatures bottoming out into the 40s F, 30s F foothills of Davis Mountains and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin by sunrise Wednesday, despite increased low level cloud cover limiting overnight cooling. NBM rainfall totals 0.25" to 0.50" from the Big Bend into the Stockton Plateau and parts of the Permian Basin and moderate to high (45% to 65%) probability of at least a tenth to a quarter of an inch rainfall from Big Bend into the Permian Basin suggest rainfall amounts largely remain light. Flooding will not be an issue apart from poor drainage sites. Highest rainfall accumulations in ensembles are consistently over Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, and Stockton Plateau, closer to lift and moisture associated with disturbance over northern MX plateau. Most recent runs of NBM have also trended to showing highest rainfall totals in this general region.

Increased subsidence in the wake of the disturbance, weakening and dissipation of the cold front that cleared the area Tuesday night, and winds shifting back to east/southeast with dew point temperatures rising back into the lower to mid 40s F by Wednesday afternoon mean continuous low cloud cover is likely to break by then. However, model forecast soundings suggest most of the drying will occur aloft, while lower levels remain more humid and dew point depressions remain at or below 20F northeast of the Marfa Plateau, keeping a mix of sun and mid to low clouds around for much of the area. NBM indicates most persistent cloud cover along the Pecos River and Stockton Plateau from morning through early afternoon, although at this time forecast ceilings and visibilities both in models and numerical guidance do not indicate values favorable to widespread mist/fog formation during that time period. With persistent mix of sun and clouds even as winds veer back to southeasterly on Wednesday, highs a few degrees cooler than today for most in the mid to upper 60s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes and Delawares into Davis Mountains, and 70s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County are forecast. Lingering low to mid level cloud cover Wednesday night and dew point temperatures rising into further into the 40s F areawide on humid southeasterly winds keep lows in the 40s F, 50s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County and eastern Stockton Plateau/southeast Permian Basin, apart from upper 30s to lower 40s F for foothills of the Marfa Plateau. While the weather remains dry mid-week after today's rain showers, models are increasingly indicating another rain event in store at the end of the week. More on this in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Highs once again shoot back into the mid-to-upper 70s across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico Thursday as ridging builds overhead. However, this sharp warm-up is relatively short-lived. By Friday, another upper-level system starts moving into Baja California, pushing the ridge farther east. Meanwhile, moisture will increase across the area, especially in the Permian Basin of west Texas and Lower Trans-Pecos. Shortwave disturbances out ahead of this system will interact with this moisture and encourage increasing rain chances through the day Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances currently look to maximize Friday evening and into Saturday morning as the main upper-level trough approaches. The best chances (generally in the 40-80% range) will be for the Permian Basin (especially northern and eastern portions) and the Lower Trans- Pecos. One thing worth noting is that as moisture has increased, CAPE has also tended to increase, mainly in the eastern Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. As a result, it is not out of the question that a couple of storms may become locally strong in these areas. Naturally, this is one of the details we will continue to monitor over the next few days. We will also continue to monitor changes in the system's strength, timing, and the quality of moisture return ahead of the trough.

By Saturday, the trough axis moves overhead, and a Pacific front moves across the region. This, in addition to our proximity to a strengthening surface low, will yield breezy conditions Saturday. By the end of the weekend and into early next week, ridging once again begins to build over the area. Temperatures remain spring-like through the extended, though Saturday's Pacific front will yield highs closer to normal (albeit still 2-5 degrees above) both then and Sunday. For reference, seasonable highs at MAF this time of year are anywhere from 62-64 degrees.

Sprang

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Stratus is anticipated overnight KFST/KPEQ/KINK, w/variable cigs LIFR-MVFR at times. This will scatter out Wednesday morning, after which VFR conditions will prevail. Light surface winds will veer back around to return flow during the afternoon Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 43 65 46 79 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 45 62 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 51 72 53 80 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 48 67 51 79 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 43 59 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 41 64 44 74 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 38 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 45 65 48 78 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 45 64 48 77 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 43 64 45 77 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.