textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Risk of isolated flash flooding, damaging winds, and hail for parts of the SE NM plains this weekend in rounds of showers/storms.

- Highest rain chances forecast Saturday night through Sunday morning and again Sunday and Monday. Amounts still uncertain.

- Cooler temperatures (60s and 70s F highs, 50s F lows) and drier weather moves in by Tuesday-Wednesday next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A cooling trend begins today following temperatures peaking Thursday. Increased clouds keep temperatures closer to the mid 70s to mid 80s F range areawide rather than solidly in the 80s F. Southeast winds will persist, increasing to 15 mph to 25 mph with higher gusts by 3 pm over the Stockton Plateau and Pecos River valley. Mid to upper ridging over the MS Valley will slow down development of an upper system over the Desert SW that has been delivering heavy rain and severe weather risk to AZ/NM/CO. Rain chances stay (25% to 35%) for far western Culberson County and Eddy County Plains, with isolated shower/overage indicated in high-res CAMs from 3 pm through midnight. Bulk of heavy rain and severe risk remains to the west of the area, and high-res CAMS depict most activity dissipating as it moves into the Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County Plains. However, favorable shear, cool mid-level temperatures in the DGZ, and fast storm motion (up to 40 knots) mean we cannot rule out all severe hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two over Culberson County into western Eddy County Plains if storms can hold together. Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph persist overnight for the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, even as winds diminish overnight elsewhere, keeping lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s F.

Tomorrow, rain chances increase to 45% to 60% from the Marfa Plateau through SE NM plains, but activity will continue in rounds with isolated to scattered coverage: not everyone will see rain. Energy from northeast propagating disturbances within southwest flow aloft east of the disturbance over the Desert SW is apparent in models Saturday morning, and again late Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Due to persistent mid to upper ridging over the MS Valley, most of the lift and focusing of moisture from these disturbances remains confined to the SE NM plains, increasing risk of repeated rounds of heavy rain and flash flooding mainly west of the Permian Basin, especially for repeatedly saturated soils and poor drainage regions. Highs remain within the 70s F for cloudier regions farther west, and rise to the 80s F for warmer spots with more sun farther east/south/southeast on Saturday. With southeasterly winds again increasing 15 to 25 mph over parts of the lowlands late afternoon and persisting overnight, lows only fall into the 60s F lowlands, while higher elevations still fall into the 50s F. Severe risk (damaging winds, hail) is again present in stronger storms Saturday and Saturday night over the SE NM plains given adequate wind shear for long lived storms and cooler mid-level temperatures aloft. Consequently, the SPC Day 2 outlook has western parts of the SE NM plains in a MRGL risk. However, rainfall remains the primary concern. Severe risk persists through Sunday, although heavy rain and hail will become the primary hazards. More on this in the Long Term Discussion.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the MS Valley begins to flatten Sunday. This occurs as energy within southwest flow east of the disturbance over the Desert SW continues to send waves of energy providing lift and focusing of moisture over the SE NM plains, extending into the northern Permian Basin. Rain chances remain highest (45% to 60%) for these regions, but increase into the 35% to 45% for adjacent foothills and plains south into the Marfa Plateau and east into the Permian Basin. Continued strong winds increasing with height providing shear for organization of long- lived storms and mid-level temperatures staying cool mean strongest storms Sunday pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds once again. Hail will become the main severe threat as outlined in the SPC Day 3 outlook, which has most of the SE NM plains in a MRGL risk. Repeated rounds of heavy rain continue to characterize the forecast, although coverage and timing are still too uncertain to warrant any flood products at this time. Highs maintain a downward trend, with 60s and 70s F for cooler spots north of the Pecos River and over the higher elevations, and remaining in the 70s to lower 80s F for the lowlands.

Following lows dropping into the 50s and 60s F once again Sunday night, Monday features much the same story, but with lower (35% to 45%) rain chances, this time over much of the area. While the upper disturbance will be progressing east/northeast as ridging over the MS Valley continues to break down, bulk of best forcing will miss the area, keeping the Permian Basin and points south and southeast drier. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has highest risk of rainfall up to 1" to 2" farther north over NE NM and the TX panhandle for the weekend through early next week, but this could change. Rain chances stick around Monday night through Tuesday before diminishing thereafter. Cooler temperatures (widespread 60s and 70s F highs, 50s F lows) move in behind the mid to upper disturbance and a weak cold front from Tuesday through the middle of next week, keeping conditions seasonable for late October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight in increasing return flow. Saturday, models develop a MVFR stratus deck up the Pecos Rvr Valley, impacting every terminal except perhaps KPEQ. This will prevail through the end of the forecast period. Convection is possible, mainly SE NM terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 79 63 76 / 0 0 0 40 Carlsbad 61 77 59 73 / 20 60 90 80 Dryden 62 77 63 75 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Stockton 61 78 62 76 / 0 0 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 57 70 56 68 / 40 60 100 70 Hobbs 58 73 58 68 / 10 30 80 90 Marfa 55 75 55 72 / 10 20 60 30 Midland Intl Airport 61 76 63 73 / 0 0 10 40 Odessa 62 76 63 73 / 0 0 20 50 Wink 62 78 62 75 / 0 10 60 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.