textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning mainly west of the Pecos this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances expand farther west into western higher terrain this weekend.

- Rain chances decrease early next week, becoming confined to the western higher terrain as afternoon temperatures begin a warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The persistent upper-level low continues to slowly spin across the vicinity of west Texas this afternoon. The bulk of the heaviest rain remained confined to the far southeastern Permian Basin this morning but this activity has since diminished as of early this afternoon. Outflow associated with the morning convection over west-central Texas has pushed west through the Trans Pecos region this afternoon. Subsident conditions appear to have materialized over much of the Permian Basin behind this outflow boundary given cooler temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s and an overall lack of cumulus development on satellite imagery. The latest CAMs coming are continuing to show a lack of convective development over the Permian Basin through the rest of the afternoon into this evening, so have reduced POPs accordingly. It looks like we will be able to allow the Flood Watch to expire. More unstable conditions are in place over western and southern portions of our CWA ahead of the boundary, where scattered showers and storms are developing from western Eddy County into the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, Marfa Plateau and into parts of the Big Bend. We will be monitoring for a few strong to marginally severe storms and heavy rainfall rates that could still lead to very localized flooding over these areas over the next few hours.

The upper level low will slowly pivot westward over the vicinity of west and southwest Texas through Saturday night. CAMs have been favoring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms to persist or re-develop into late tonight. The best chance will be over southeast NM and perhaps into the northwest Basin overnight. A plume of deep moisture will remain in place across the region Saturday-Saturday night, so another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms should develop again Saturday afternoon and evening, with the best coverage over the higher terrain of the western CWA. Abundant moisture will remain in place, so storms that develop could still be efficient rainfall producers and perhaps result in localized flash flooding. Overall confidence was not high enough for additional Flood Watch issuance, but later shifts will continue to monitor. A few stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds again Saturday. Temperatures should trend slightly warmer into the upper 80s to lower 90s for most on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The upper-level low continues to shift west late this weekend into early next week. As a result, additional chances of isolated to scattered rain/storms are forecast each afternoon mainly across the higher terrain and far West Texas Sunday through Tuesday. Surface troughing extending from the Rockies will also provide extra lift for shower/storm development. These chances will gradually decrease heading into Tuesday as the upper low pivots farther away from the region. Temperatures are also going to return back into the 90s for most by early next week. Ensemble guidance suggest PWAT values ranging between 1-2" across our region through Tuesday evening, signaling a continued heavy rainfall threat. Given some areas have already seen several rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding may continue to be a concern. The threat itself is not expected to be as extensive as previous days. By mid next week, an upper-level ridge becomes the dominant weather feature creating much warmer and drier conditions areawide. Guidance has been trending towards many locations hitting the triple digits by Thursday.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in areas of direct convection. MVFR cigs are questionable overnight, as things have had a chance to begin drying out today. Thus, we'll leave them out attm. Otherwise, convection is ongoing this evening, and will affect mainly KHOB. Convection will be possible Saturday, mainly in the afternoon at all terminals. It's not over yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 88 69 90 / 20 30 20 30 Carlsbad 69 92 69 92 / 30 50 40 30 Dryden 71 91 72 92 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Stockton 69 90 69 90 / 20 40 20 60 Guadalupe Pass 66 84 65 83 / 20 60 50 70 Hobbs 66 88 66 89 / 30 40 50 30 Marfa 59 84 59 83 / 30 60 20 80 Midland Intl Airport 69 87 70 89 / 20 40 40 30 Odessa 69 87 69 89 / 20 40 40 30 Wink 69 91 69 91 / 30 30 30 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Southern Lea.