textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Near to below normal temperatures continue through midweek.

- An Arctic air mass brings much colder temperatures to the area Friday into the weekend.

- We are continuing to monitor the possibility of an impactful winter weather system Friday through the weekend. While uncertainty remains in precipitation types, amounts, and timing, confidence in an impactful event is increasing.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Current water vapor satellite imagery depicts a large trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with quasi-zonal flow over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, post-fronal surface high pressure is currently centered over eastern Oklahoma. Here on the western side of the surface high, northerly to northeasterly winds continue over our area this morning. These winds gradually veer around to a more southeasterly/southerly direction today as the high shifts eastward. Nevertheless, below normal temperatures linger on today, with highs only topping out in the low-to-mid 50s for most locations. Increasing low cloud cover later today is expected to even keep parts of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos in the upper 40s. The transportation of low-level moisture keeps these clouds over portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This helps keep lows Wednesday morning warmer than today's. Most locations bottom out in the upper 20s and low-to-mid 30s (upper 30s in easternmost portions of the area under the thickest cloud cover). Another weak front drops into our region Wednesday morning, but this does little more than shift winds northerly again and push the low clouds out of the area. In fact, highs Wednesday manage to end up warmer than Tuesday's (mid-to-upper 50s in the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos, 60s further south and along the Rio Grande). Temperatures warm a few degrees more Thursday relative to Wednesday, but otherwise big changes are still forecast in the Long Term. See the discussion below for details...

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

To say the least, there has been some interesting changes for the upcoming potential winter storm event that could impact our forecast area Friday and into the weekend. Though there remains great uncertainty in the details that are about to be presented, confidence in an impactful winter storm event is increasing at this time. With that said, it is important to note that details in the forecast are likely to change in the coming days as we obtain more data. Here is what we know so far and what the range of possibilities are:

Long-range guidance continues to show an upper-level low off the coast of southern California by midnight Friday morning. As this system approaches, it will transport Pacific moisture out of the southwest into our area aloft. Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure located across the Northern Plains sends a strong Arctic cold front into our region. One of the changes since the last forecast package is that ensemble guidance is indicating the real possibility of the Arctic cold front coming through as early as midnight Friday morning. If this were to verify, our region would be placed in the Arctic airmass for a longer period of time than originally thought. This would have a profound effect on when precipitation may start, precipitation type, and temperatures would likely struggle to climb above the freezing mark on Friday. With that said, our latest probabilities of precipitation (20-30%) begin around rush hour Friday morning, and increase to 30-40% by Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning/afternoon, probabilities (50-80%) increase even more as the upper-level low approaches, placing our area in the left-exit region of the jet and providing stronger forcing for ascent. This makes sense as the Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows our area maxed out in the 99th percentile with regard to PWAT values beginning Friday and lasting through Sunday morning.

Another change since the last forecast package which should be noted is that the amount of ensemble members in agreement with regard to much colder air and a winter storm system impacting our area have doubled. However, uncertainty lies in the timing/placement of the upper-level low, Arctic front, and moisture return quality in these ensemble members. At this time, freezing rain and significant icing potential (>0.25") look to be the main hazard our forecast area could experience. Though, some snow and sleet may mix in at some point during the event and some areas may only see rain. Stay tuned for further updates in upcoming forecast packages! Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. Light northerly winds gradually veer to the south this morning. By tomorrow morning, another weak front approaches, once again bringing northerly winds to the area around or just after 12Z Wednesday. Similar to the previous forecast, it still appears low CIGs will stay just to the east of MAF and FST this afternoon and overnight, though trends will be closely monitored. Guidance is also hinting at a low chance (20-40%) of at least MVFR visibilities near the end of the period Wednesday morning at FST and MAF. Confidence was too low to include mention in this set of TAFs, but may need to be included in future forecast updates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 50 33 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 53 28 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 53 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 34 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 51 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 29 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 50 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 50 32 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 51 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.