textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 644 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Temperatures gradually warm through midweek, and rain chances will be minimal (aside from lingering light rain this afternoon in parts of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos). - Rain chances increase (20-40%) Thursday and Friday for areas south of Interstate 10. There is a potential for heavy rainfall, though limited coverage of showers/storms will keep the flash flood threat very low.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Upper-level ridging over the Four Corners encourages a continued gradual warming trend through the Short Term. Highs today look similar overall to Sunday's, with most locations topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight once again bottom out in the mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s. However, surface winds become southeasterly again overnight. This allows most locations to top out in the low-to-mid 80s Tuesday (which is still near to just below normal for early October). Lows also tick up a degree or two Wednesday morning relative to Tuesday morning. As far as rain chances go, some rain/light showers have been evident for portions of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos since this morning. These will gradually drift west/southwestward and wane through the remainder of the afternoon. Only a low mention for light rain (10-20%) is maintained for parts of the Permian Basin and the Trans-Pecos into this evening. Rain chances look lower overall Tuesday (<10%) thanks to a lack of sufficient lift, not to mention a general decrease in atmospheric moisture across the region.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Subtle upper-level ridging remains over the area on Wednesday. This will promote warmer than normal high temperatures ranging from the low to upper 80s for most locations. By Wednesday night, long-range guidance has an inverted upper trough developing across portions of Texas extending into western New Mexico. A disturbance in the southwest Gulf along with southeasterly to easterly winds bring surface moisture to the region. As a result, slightly cooler weather and low to medium (10-40%) rain chances are in store Thursday through Saturday. These chances are forecast mainly over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region each afternoon due to daytime heating and upslope flow acting as additional mechanisms for shower/storm development. PWATs are forecast to range from the 75th to near 90th climatological percentile indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Given the mainly isolated to scattered coverage, the flash flood threat remains very low at the moment. Surface high pressure from the Rockies will keep dry air in the lower levels for areas north of the aforementioned areas, resulting in very low rain/storm chances (~10%). Highs each afternoon are expected in the mid 70s to low 80s for most. A warming and drying trend commences late this weekend into early next week as upper-level ridging returns. Guidance has high temperatures rebounding back into the low to upper 80s with some locations along and near the river valleys reaching into the low 90s.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light easterly winds become southeasterly to southerly overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 85 64 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 62 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 74 57 75 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 59 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 56 77 57 79 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 62 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.