textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- A storm system will bring a chance of rain showers beginning this afternoon in the Presidio Valley, and developing northeast through Tuesday morning. Rain may mix with snow at times, or even changeover to snow, but little accumulation is expected.

- Temperatures gradually warm back above normal by the middle of next week.

- A dry cold front Thursday night/Friday will take temperatures back below normal by Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough that has been to the west for the past few days has separated into a cut-off low over Baja, and a shear axis producing a lot of nothing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This is partially due to a PWAT on the 00Z KMAF raob of 0.08", which is below the minimal percentile, and just 0.01" above the record low for today. Otherwise, light/variable winds and mostly clear skies are promoting efficient radiational cooling, resulting in the coldest night of the winter so far for the area.

Today, the shear axis moves north as the cut-off low pivots and moves offshore of Baja del Sur, and begins sending shortwaves into the Big Bend Area/Presidio Valley in southwest flow aloft. Thicknesses will be on the increase. Highs will still come in 2-3 F below climatology, but 5-6 F warmer than yesterday. The thorn in the side of this forecast continues to be wintry precipitation CAMs develop over Mexico, and bring across the river into the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Area late this afternoon. This looks to start out as a wintry mix of rain showers, rain/snow showers, and snow showers at times, gradually transitioning to mainly rain showers Monday afternoon as temperatures recover. Thankfully, the NBM is a lot more pessimistic on freezing rain than 24 hours ago, and only tries to develop it for a few hours late Monday night, mainly on the Marfa Plateau. However, as with last night, both NAM and GFS forecast sounding profiles are closer to snow vs. freezing rain. That said, temperatures are relatively warm, with NBM yielding snow ratios of 4:1 at best. Thus, a very wet snow is expected, w/little accumulation, and we'll continue to emphasize this in graphics and key messages.

Tonight, winds remain light/variable, but begin reverting back to return flow. This will arrest CAA, and combine with increasing cloud cover S-N to retard radiational cooling. Overnight lows will increase 5-6 F over tonight's, increasing to within a degree or so of normal.

Monday, the upper trough crosses the Gulf of California onto the Mexico mainland, arriving over central Chihuahua by 00Z Tuesday. Precip chances will increase northeastward w/the advance of the trough but, as mentioned above, any wintry precip will transition largely to rain showers. As a result, temperatures won't budge much from today's, increasing maybe a degree or so in places.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast to continue east/northeast through the Davis Mountains/Big Bend, opening up east of the CWA during the afternoon. Precipitation chances will continue increasing northeast, and taper off by 18Z or so. Westerly surface winds are forecast to increase in the trough's wake under skies clearing NW-SE, adding around 5 F to Tuesday's highs.

The rest of the extended will be dry, with a warming trend through Thursday as meridional winds aloft transition to northwest flow. Thursday looks to be the warmest day this forecast as highs top out a pleasant 10 F above normal on average. Thursday night/Friday, a cold front arrives to cool things down, with highs Saturday rounding out the extended 6-8 F below normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be light/variable, with a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 53 27 54 30 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 57 39 55 40 / 0 20 20 50 Fort Stockton 54 34 55 39 / 0 0 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 45 31 47 33 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 55 28 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 25 47 29 / 0 20 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 56 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 55 32 55 37 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 54 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.