textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across westernmost portions of the area this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become severe, posing mainly a large hail, damaging wind, and localized flash flooding risk (although an isolated tornado is possible).

- Rain chances (generally in the 40-70% range) continue for mainly the western half of the area through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

- Seasonable temperatures return today and largely persist through next week. Drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before additional chances of rain return by late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As of 1:30AM CDT, fast-moving (and decaying) showers and thunderstorms were evident on radar, mainly in southeast New Mexico and west of the Pecos River. This convection, which is associated with an upper-level trough moving across the Desert Southwest, will continue to decay throughout the pre-dawn hours. The bigger story as far as shower and thunderstorm chances go is this afternoon and evening. Convective-Allowing Models continue to depict multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas thanks to the aforementioned upper-level trough. While instability looks a bit marginal overall across southeast New Mexico (mainly Eddy County) southward into Culberson and Presidio counties (CAPE will mainly be in the 500-1000 J/kg range, up to 1500 J/kg locally), ample deep-layer shear will support a few storms becoming strong to severe. The main concern would be large hail and damaging winds. However, there is enough low-level shear to support an isolated tornado threat as well this afternoon and evening for far western portions of our coverage area. Storms will tend to move quickly, but heavy rainfall may nevertheless lead to flash flooding as well. This activity will wane overnight as it moves eastward. Only low chances of scattered convection (20-40%) are maintained for much of the Permian Basin and eastern portions of the Trans-Pecos through Sunday morning.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening, once again across mainly western portions of the area. Latest guidance suggests coverage would be less than that of today (chances ranging mainly between 30-50%), and the severe/flash flooding threat would also be lower. We will continue to keep an eye on how these chances evolve through Sunday night. Lower heights, increasing cloud cover, and rain chances keep temperatures cooler today and Sunday. Highs largely top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s. Overnight lows remain in the upper 50s and low 60s. Southeasterly winds remain breezy each afternoon thanks to nearby surface troughing ahead of the upper-level system.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The upper-level trough continues to move northeast, keeping our area under southwest flow aloft. Shortwave impulses embedded in the flow combined with abundant moisture maintains medium to high (50-80%) PoPs across southeast New Mexico and portions of far west Texas Sunday night. By Monday, chances of showers/storms become more widespread as another shortwave develops overhead and shifts east. Southeasterly upslope flow provides orographic lift, yielding continued chances for convection across the higher terrain. Localized flash flooding will be possible in areas where training storms occur.

The shortwave begins to lift northeast on Tuesday and weak ridging develops behind it. As the shortwave departs, low (10-20%) chances of rain are maintained across the eastern third of our CWA. By Wednesday, ridging builds slightly and brings drier conditions. However, this is short-lived as long-range model guidance shows toughing with difluent flow aloft late next week. If this verifies, much of the area may see more showers and storms. We will continue to monitor trends and adjust the forecast as details become more clear. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions are currently observed at all sites, but MVFR CIGs are still expected to develop over MAF, INK, HOB, and CNM by 13-15Z. VFR ceilings return by 18-20Z at all sites. A PROB 30 has been maintained at CNM this afternoon and evening for scattered thunderstorms. Better thunderstorm chances develop at CNM after 00Z. Though these storms will move eastward towards other sites overnight (particularly HOB and PEQ), confidence remains too low to include PROB 30s for other terminals at this time. Southeasterly winds become breezy again later this morning, with gusts generally between 20-25 kts (up to 30 kts or so).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 64 77 61 / 0 10 20 10 Carlsbad 77 59 73 57 / 70 80 50 80 Dryden 76 63 75 61 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 77 62 76 60 / 0 20 30 30 Guadalupe Pass 69 56 67 55 / 60 80 60 80 Hobbs 72 58 68 56 / 10 60 60 40 Marfa 75 54 73 53 / 20 60 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 75 63 73 61 / 0 30 20 10 Odessa 75 63 73 61 / 0 40 30 20 Wink 77 62 75 60 / 10 40 30 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.