textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Near record high temperatures are expected today. Temperatures remain above normal, but decrease very gradually this weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The heat continues going into this weekend for west Texas and southeast New Mexico as upper-level ridging builds back into the Great Plains. However, today looks like the hottest day of the forecast period, and temperatures cool very gradually going into the Long Term. Highs once again top out near or just above 100 degrees across the area today, with low to mid 90s in and around the higher terrain. Lows tonight bottom out in the low-to-mid 70s for most. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening. While the best chances (20-40%) will be south and west of the Pecos River (especially in the higher terrain), low chances (10-20%) are maintained elsewhere thanks to lingering moisture and lift on the western edge of Edouard's remnants.

Even though ridging continues to build westward Saturday, relatively lower heights over our area yield temperatures a degree or two cooler than today's. Highs in the mid-to-upper 90s will be commonplace, with 100 degree temperatures becoming more confined to the river valleys. Lows Saturday night end up similar to tonight's. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again tomorrow afternoon and evening, but this time will remain mainly south and west of the Pecos, with a few sneaking into the western Permian Basin (20-40% chances for these locations). For both today and tomorrow, storms that develop may produce heavy rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

By early next week, a trough moving across northern portions of the CONUS helps push the ridge back to the east. As a result, we will see temperatures decrease a couple of degrees more around this timeframe, though they will remain about 4-8 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs through at least the middle of next week end up in the mid-to-upper 90s for most locations, with upper 80s and low 90s in/around the higher terrain. Low rain chances (10-30%) stay pretty close to the higher terrain through at least the middle of next week as well. As far as the latter portion of the forecast goes, there remains some inconsistency in the models as to where the ridge will be positioned, how strong it will be, and therefore what our rain chances and temperatures will look like going into next weekend. At this time, the NBM maintains very low PoPs for portions of the area (10-20%). Meanwhile, both the GFS and Euro have started to depict the ridge building back towards the Plains by the end of the week. As a result, temperatures have trended a bit higher across the area, such that most locations are now forecast to see highs in the mid-to-upper 90s throughout the week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated coverage and 10% to 40% chance of SHRA/TS 18Z-03Z over the Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos south of the terminals and terminals on the eastern Permian Basin through Stockton Plateau. Main risks in any storms are strong and variable winds, frequent lightning, brief heavy rain, and small hail. VFR with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 15 to 25 mph at times this afternoon through early tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 101 74 99 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 100 73 99 / 20 20 20 0 Dryden 75 100 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 99 72 96 / 20 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 89 69 89 / 30 30 10 0 Hobbs 72 99 71 97 / 20 20 20 0 Marfa 63 90 61 89 / 30 40 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 99 74 97 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 75 99 75 97 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 76 101 75 98 / 20 20 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.