textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 212 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Temperatures trend below normal Tuesday behind a cold front that pushed in earlier today.

- An Arctic air mass brings much colder temperatures to the area Friday into the weekend.

- We will be monitoring for the potential for impactful wintry precipitation late Friday into the weekend. Confidence on timing, precipitation types, and amounts is currently low.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 212 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Surface observations show a cold front pushing through the southeast New Mexico plains and the Permian Basin early this afternoon. Temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees behind this boundary with breezy northeasterly winds. Temperatures are warmer in the 50s to lower 60s across the remainder of the area. Cold surface high pressure will settle over the forecast area tonight into Sunday morning. Overnight low temperatures will trend several degrees colder than last night with forecast readings in the upper teens to upper 20s over much of our region, except in the lower to mid 30s along portions of the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region.

The surface ridge will shift east on Tuesday as lee troughing takes shape over eastern New Mexico, allowing winds to turn southerly over our forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. Our forecast area still remains along the western fringe of the ridge axis Tuesday, so temperatures are forecast to trend below normal in the lower to mid 50s over much of the region, except lower 60s along the Rio Grande. A deck of low clouds may also develop from the Lower Trans Pecos into the eastern Permian Basin on Tuesday, where temperatures may struggle to get out of the upper 40s. The latest forecast guidance continues to keep moisture well to the south of our region on Tuesday, so the earlier low rain chances we had in place in the southern Big Bend/Presidio Valley have trended down to near zero. Low clouds may linger over our eastern CWA Tuesday night but dry conditions otherwise continue. Lows Tuesday night range in the 20s and 30s over most of the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 212 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Friday and into the weekend, weather conditions look to take a fascinating turn as a storm system rolls in. Something to note before we get into any details with this system is that these details are relatively new. Therefore, there remains a good deal of uncertainty in storm track and exact impacts at the moment. With that said, here is what the latest data shows: Through the weekend, a cut-off low is forecast to linger near the coast of SoCal and Baja. Moisture flowing aloft out of the southwest from this upper low looks to get entrained into the jet stream to the north. Meanwhile, a surface high on the back side of the trough within the jet stream pushes a blast of Arctic air out of Canada into the area Friday morning. Winds pick up out of the northeast Friday as the cold front sweeps in. Temperatures Friday are currently forecast to top out in the mid 40s to mid 50s for much of the region, The exception will be our southernmost counties, where highs shall reach the mid 60s, with 70s along the Rio Grande. Friday night, lows slip into the teens to mid 20s at most locations, with 30s to low 40s in our southernmost counties. Arctic air continues flowing in Saturday, resulting in highs ranging generally in the 20s and 30s, a trend downward from previous model runs. Temperatures Saturday night dip into the teens and 20s. Highs on Sunday will depend on what happens earlier in the weekend, but are currently forecast to top out in the 40s regionwide.

Here is where we really want to pay attention. Given the incoming moisture and a source of lift provided by this system, precipitation chances see an uptick areawide Friday through early Sunday morning. At the moment, precipitation chances gradually rise through the day Friday, peaking Friday evening into Friday night, then slowly tapering off Saturday into Saturday night. This is the window where we will be monitoring for wintry precipitation. As mentioned above, there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding timing, precipitation types, totals, accumulations, and impacts. This being the case, expect further changes and updates to the forecast over the coming days!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. Northeasterly winds will pick up to 10-20 kt with a few higher gusts over most terminals behind a passing cold front this afternoon before diminishing this evening. There is some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, including near KFST and KMAF. We kept mention out of these TAFs with this forecast given low confidence and perhaps better potential for low ceilings occurring just beyond this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 23 51 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 24 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 36 53 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 28 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 25 49 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 21 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 21 57 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 24 49 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 25 49 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 24 51 28 59 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.