textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 259 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Patchy dense fog will be possible over far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin through this morning.

- A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend much cooler tonight through Tuesday before a warming trend occurs mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb height analysis show an upper- level low moving across the Texas panhandle as of 2 AM CST. Surface analysis places a 1029 mb surface high over the Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley region early this morning and the associated ridge axis extends as far west as the Texas panhandle and into central portions of Texas. A shortwave trough rounding the base of the upper-level low initiated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Permian Basin late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, a few of which became locally severe over the northern and northeastern Permian Basin. Most of the convection has moved to the east of our forecast area with better forcing for ascent spreading into the Concho Valley and northwest/north Texas. A very moist and cool airmass remains in place over far southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin and much of the Trans Pecos region and conditions will be favorable for the development of patchy fog through early Sunday morning. We added patchy fog mention into the forecast for these locations. A few of the high resolution models, including the RRFS/RAP13/HRRR show potential for localized patches of dense fog, especially over the northern Permian Basin early this morning, so we will be monitoring observational trends closely.

The upper-level low is forecast to translate eastward toward the Red River Valley region this afternoon and evening. A plume of moisture and lift along the western/southwestern periphery of this system may result in the development of a few rain showers over the northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon and evening and will keep a low chance (20-30%) of rain the forecast over these locations, including around Big Spring/Snyder/Colorado City. A cold front is still on track to push southward into the southeast New Mexico plains and the Permian Basin this morning and then through the remainder of our forecast area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will trend cooler over northern portions of our area, particularly over southeast New Mexico and the northern Basin, where highs may not get out of the 50s. Surface ridging will continue to build into our forecast area tonight in the wake of the cold front. Breezy northeasterly winds may persist from the mountains down into the Big Bend tonight where the pressure gradient will be tighter. Temperatures will trend colder with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s over much of the area (chilliest readings in the higher terrain), except upper 40s to lower 50s down along the Rio Grande. Ridging aloft will build across southeast New Mexico and west Texas on Monday, while the surface ridge continues to nose westward through much of our area. A deck of low stratus may remain locked in over most locations along and east of the mountains through the day Monday, while weak isentropic ascent could also contribute to areas of light drizzle. The low clouds and cool surface ridge will result in a day of below normal temperatures with highs only reaching the lower to mid 50s at best over most areas east of the mountains. A few spots in the northern/northeastern Basin might struggle to get out of the upper 40s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the ArkLaTex and Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft develops over our forecast area in advance of the next trough lifting over the western CONUS/Four Corners. The large area of surface high pressure will also shift eastward toward the Ohio Valley and Eastern Seaboard. A southeasterly to southerly surface flow pattern will prevail over our region on Tuesday and the moist low level flow may keep low cloud decks in place through much of the day over southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where highs may only reach into the mid to upper 50s. The southwesterly flow pattern aloft looks to prevail through the middle to latter part of the week ahead of a slow moving trough over the western U.S. Weak shortwave impulses in the southwesterly flow aloft along with increased southerly low level flow/moist advection may supporting increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms over portions of our area Thursday and Friday. The upper-level trough looks to dampen as it swings into the central Plains by Saturday. This may allow the moisture plume to shift further to our east by early next weekend. Temperatures otherwise look to trend warmer Wednesday-Saturday, with highs moderating back into the 60s and 70s, while morning lows mostly range in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for most sites, with MVFR moving into MAF/HOB AFT 15Z. SHRA/TS is moving east of all sites and should not affect the terminals. S winds shift from NW-NE behind a cold front by 18Z.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 45 52 46 / 10 20 0 0 Carlsbad 63 44 54 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 50 57 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 45 56 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 41 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 40 53 42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 38 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 45 52 47 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 44 52 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 66 43 55 46 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.