textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front that moves into the area today and Tuesday. A few storms will be capable of producing localized severe downburst winds, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Highs remain above normal today, but finally trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week.

- The heavy rainfall threat increases across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas beginning Tuesday night lasting through at least Thursday. We will be monitoring these locations for an increased potential for flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Satellite imagery and weather observations as of 1 PM CDT shows the front just north of Lubbock extending down to near Aspermont, TX. Showers and storms are beginning to redevelop across the northern Permian Basin, while some are developing across the Stockton Plateau. A dryline is also situated across portions of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico supplying additional lift and moisture for storms to develop later in the afternoon. The greatest chance (30-50%) for showers/storms this afternoon and evening will be over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings continue to depict inverted-V profiles, high PWATs (near to above 90th percentile), abundant DCAPE ( > 1200 J/kg), and modest mid- level lapse rates signal a heavy rainfall (may lead to localized flash flooding) and damaging wind threat. The aforementioned front will provide more deep-layer shear (20-30 kts) sustaining storms than previously seen over the past of couple days. As a result, a few of these storms are expected to produce strong to severe downburst winds (up to 70 mph) mainly across the Permian Basin this afternoon and early evening.

Tonight, the front makes its way near the Trans Pecos bringing further shower/storm development to these areas. Lows tonight are forecast to reach the 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow, the weak upper-level ridge of high pressure shifts slightly eastward bringing southerly flow aloft transporting moisture from Tropical Storm Polo. This allows disturbances in the flow aloft to provide more moisture and ascent for storm development. Scattered storms are once again expected portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and higher terrain during the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be the primary threat associated with the strongest storms. High-resolution guidance suggests higher surface and mixed-layer available instability combined with less DCAPE due to vast surface moisture advection. Hail up to the size of quarters may occur with the strongest storms as well given similar wind shear parameters. High temperatures will reach the 80s for a lot of locations tomorrow, thanks to cold air advection behind the front. These cooler temperatures look to stick around through at least the rest of the work week. Tomorrow night, the aforementioned high pressure will continue to slide eastward. A plume of deep moisture from Tropical Storm Polo will begin to set up over portions of far West Texas into southeast New Mexico. This will set up a very favorable wet weather pattern and heavy rainfall threat throughout the rest of the work week. More details can be found in the long-term discussion.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cooler and wetter pattern is in store through the rest of the work week into early this weekend. Moist southerly to southwesterly flow aloft from Tropical Storm Polo, along with inverted surface troughing brings favorable moisture and lift for daily scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region. The most favorable areas in receiving the heaviest rainfall will be across portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Coverage of showers and storms begin to significantly increase (> 60%) by Wednesday for these areas as upper-level troughing pulls in more moisture from northwest Mexico. Ensembles continue to signal PWATs reaching above the 90th climatological percentile through at least Friday, reaffirming the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts are still uncertain, however, probabilistic guidance has a low to medium (30-50%) chance for rainfall exceeding an inch within 24 hours (Wednesday-Thursday) for areas across the Eddy County plains into the Guadalupe Mountains. Locally higher amounts (4 inches or greater) due to repeated convective bands look to occur as well. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for these areas from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The Watch will likely need to be extended as the plume of moisture shifts east Thursday and Friday. Areas elsewhere should still expect isolated to scattered rain/storms each afternoon and evening (20-50%). Localized flash flooding could occur outside the watch area, though less extensive rain coverage is expected. We will continue to monitor trends closely. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will persist where highs range from the 80s to low 90s for most locations. The flow aloft becomes more zonal by the weekend, with weak ridging building overhead on Sunday. This should allow for lower chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, while temperatures also trend warmer back into the upper 80s to lower 90s over much of the region.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions at all sites with the exception of MAF where a TEMPO continues for the first hour of the TAF period. Storms will be a threat near MAF until after sunset before decaying. A cold front pushes through the region and winds behind it will be northeasterly. Storms return to the region during the day on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 90 69 90 / 40 40 20 20 Carlsbad 69 88 66 82 / 10 40 60 80 Dryden 73 92 72 91 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 70 89 69 88 / 20 30 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 80 61 72 / 10 30 60 90 Hobbs 65 85 65 82 / 10 40 50 60 Marfa 60 84 60 80 / 0 20 20 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 88 69 88 / 40 30 30 20 Odessa 71 88 70 87 / 30 30 30 20 Wink 71 90 70 88 / 10 30 30 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.