textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions remain the rest of this afternoon/early evening, especially over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region Friday morning, bringing very windy conditions to the area (especially the Guadalupe Pass) and a much cooler weekend.

- Blowing dust is forecast Friday areawide behind the cold front, making for dangerous travel conditions (visibilities of one mile or less expected).

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Changes are coming in the short term as a strong cold front is going to pass through the region tomorrow morning around sunrise. The warmth of today will give way to a much cooler airmass behind the front with highs topping out in the 60s for most with 70s south of I- 10. With the front will come strong winds for much of the area. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains for strong to damaging gap winds that will funnel through and across the mountains with the passage of the front. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the rest of the region as gusts up to 55mph are expected for most of the day after the frontal passage. Given the continued dry conditions West Texas and southeast New Mexico has seen, a Blowing Dust Advisory has also been hoisted for the same area. Expect periods of significantly reduced visibility to make driving difficult in some areas.

By Thursday evening, winds decrease areawide and thanks to cold air advection, overnight lows fall into the 40s for most. Short range guidance continues to bring in low (10-20%) PoPs across eastern portions of the area tomorrow and into Friday night. It is possible a few showers could develop with or in the wake of the front, but any rain that does fall does not look to be substantial and will be short lived. Otherwise, rain chances remain near zero for the short term forecast.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The long term begins with cooler temperatures behind the cold front on Saturday, with highs similar to Friday's for most. However, temperatures near the Rio Grande drop approximately 10-12 degrees as the front arrives that far south Friday evening and warm by a few degrees across the northern half of our forecast area due to return flow. By Sunday, temperatures warm up into the 80s for most (except 70s in the higher terrain and 90s along the Rio Grande). Clouds increase and low chances (10-20%) of isolated showers are expected Monday afternoon/evening (mainly across the western half of our CWA) as guidance shows a shortwave moving over the region. Temperatures gradually warm through Tuesday, with highs climbing into the low 90s across much of the area due to southwesterly downslope flow. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the evening. A fast-moving cold front will quickly sweep through southeast New Mexico and west Texas between 09Z-14Z Tuesday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds will increase to 25-35 knots with a few gusts up to around 40 knots immediately following the passage of the front. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to IFR thresholds or lower at times Friday morning. Winds may gradually come down to around 20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots by mid to late Friday afternoon. A deck of broken ceilings mostly between 4-7 kft AGL may arrive into area terminals Friday afternoon, but VFR should remain prevalent outside of visibility restrictions from blowing dust.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected the rest of this afternoon/evening due to unseasonably warm temperatures, minRHs below critical thresholds (<15%), dry/critically dry fuels, and increased winds. The areas of concern are across southeast New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, and Pecos River Valley. As such, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this evening for these regions. A cold front is expected Friday morning, causing a gusty wind shift to the north/northeast. There is a possibility of isolated critical fire weather conditions along/behind the front as the front moves through initially. Temperatures fall below normal Friday and minRHs improve during the day, lowering fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 53 65 43 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 99 54 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 90 59 79 50 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 97 58 69 45 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 51 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 48 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 91 48 66 34 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 91 55 65 44 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 92 55 64 45 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 97 53 66 44 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

High Wind Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Watch Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM Friday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Watch Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.