textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 - Significant winter weather event with freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely Friday evening through Sunday morning for regions north of the Rio Grande basin. Highest ice accumulations most probable in the southeast Permian Basin.

- Temperatures remain below average with dangerous cold late weekend into early next week after the winter weather event this weekend comes to an end.

- Slow warming trend with highs staying below 60F northeast of Permian Basin and lows remaining below freezing for much of the region north and northeast of Rio Grande basin through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Ah....one more pleasant day before everything goes north. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough off the coast of SoCal/Baja del Norte, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft. Despite plenty of high cloud overhead streaming off the trough, highs should top out ~ 6-8 F above climatology. Unfortunately, this looks to be the warmest day this forecast.

12Z KMAF RAOB came in very dry, w/a PWAT of just 0.18". However, westerly flow aloft, and return flow overnight, is forecast to moisten up the column top-to-bottom, increasing PWATs to 0.96" by 21Z Friday. The 100th percentile is 0.86", and the record for 01/23 00Z is only 0.70". The biggest bust for winter wx in these parts is most always a lack of moisture, so this weekend could be a significant winter event.

Overnight, a chance of rain showers will develop out west as minor short waves calve off the trough and move up through the area. Increased moisture, as well as abundant cloud cover, will retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight minimums around 10 F above normal.

Friday, the Arctic front arrives, with NAM buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF around 18Z. Temperatures will plunge, with highs dropping to ~ 12-14 F below normal. By late afternoon, forecast soundings suggest a wintry mix developing in the north, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible in the lower Trans Pecos.

Temperatures continue heading north overnight. The column will be saturated, so all the cooling will be from CAA alone, as this is quite the cold AMS. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s lowlands, putting temperatures in extreme cold territory. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will be even colder, so we'll extend the Extreme Cold Watch through Monday morning. This will likely be upgraded soon as details are better nailed down.

Regarding winter precip, a little of everything will be in the mix, so we'll upgrade the watch to a warning. Like most winter events in these parts where a warm nose is present to one extent or another, there remains a degree of uncertainty as to what p-type will develop when and where. The main concern at the moment continues to be FZRA, with possible storm total accumulations east of the Pecos of 1/4" or more. If this pans out, and ice begins accumulating, an upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning may be warranted. For now, due to multiple p-types, we'll stick to a Winter Storm Warning.

The trough will move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico early Sunday morning, with a secondary trough phasing with it by around 12Z Sunday. Forecast soundings finally lose the warm nose, with a brief transitions to snow late Sunday morning/early afternoon before precipitation tapers off.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Thursday) Issued at 103 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Drier with a slower warming trend than previously expected is the story for the end of this weekend into next week. Lows Sunday night under clearing skies, light and variable winds, and dew point temperatures falling into the teens to lower 20s F southwest of Permian Basin and into the single digits for most of the SE NM plains into Permian Basin will enhance overnight cooling and allow lows to fall to perhaps the coldest so far this winter. This yields lows in the single digits F Pecos River valley region in SE NM plains and most of Lea County into northern and eastern Permian Basin, teens F rest of SE NM plains into central and southern Permian Basin, mid to upper teens Culberson County into foothills of Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau into Terrell County, 20s F for much of Brewster and Presidio Counties, and near freezing along Presidio Valley. Apparent temperatures by Monday morning also fall to or below -5F for northern Lea County into northern into southeast Permian Basin, to or below 10 F along Pecos River into Valley into Stockton Plateau, and near 19F for Marfa Plateau into central Presidio County. How low temperatures end up will depend on amount of snow and ice that accumulates on the ground and enhances radiational cooling, but we are monitoring potential for an extension of the Extreme Cold Watch over northern Lea County into northern and eastern Permian Basin, and issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the Pecos River Valley, Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau, and western Permian Basin. Regardless of low temperatures fall Monday morning, highs in the NBM stay below 40 F north of southern Culberson County into Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau, with highs in the 40s F south of that line and northeast of southwest Presidio and Brewster Counties - the latter being only places where highs are expected to rise into the 50s F. While highs will be 10F to 15F warmer than Sunday and winds will veer to southerly as weak ridging begins to build in the mid to upper levels, do not expect a quick warm up - especially for any regions where rain, then freezing rain, sleet and then finally snow fall and result in a deeper and more persistent zone of frozen topsoil delaying warming of the ground and near surface air, even under mostly sunny skies. The slow warmup in high temperatures where freezing precipitation accumulates this weekend will mean lows Monday night remain below freezing for most if not all of the area, except for the Rio Grande basin and Presidio Valley where lows may not fall below freezing. The slow warming trend continues next Tuesday, but only ending up 5F warmer than Monday, translating to mid to upper 40s F north of southern Culberson County into Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau, 50s F northeast of southwest Presidio and southern Brewster Counties, and lower to mid 60s F for southwest Presidio and southern Brewster Counties. Regions with deepest layer of frozen topsoil will continue to see the slowest warming. Tuesday night still sees lows fall below freezing north of Rio Grande basin, but begin to recover above freezing for the Rio Grande basins. Next Wednesday, the warming pattern is showing signals of slowing as deterministic and ensemble models show troughing in the mid to upper air pattern again amplifying from the Hudson Bay into the Central US and Southern Great Plains. This results in highs only a few degrees warmer than Tuesday for Wednesday, with highs still remaining below 50F for much of the area northeast of the Pecos River, below 50 F north of Rio Grande basin and southern Terrell County. Lows will also struggle to stay above freezing northeast of the Rio Grande basin and across Terrell County, with lows still falling below freezing northeast of the Rio Grande basin. Winds shift to northeasterly behind another cold front next Wednesday which will further hamper any quicker warming. Next Thursday, the slow warming trend is showing signs of reversing in the NBM with temperatures remaining near to below average and a reinforcing cold front indicated from another shift to northeasterly winds. No precipitation chances expected into the middle of next week, but plan on dangerous cold weather early in the week and continued chilly to freezing temperatures each night into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Big changes over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail through at least 15Z Friday. However, cigs will begin dropping over the next 24 hours as a cold front moves in. A prefrontal wind shift will hit the terminals as soon as 08Z overnight, followed by the front itself Friday. LIFR conditions will be possible KHOB near the end of the forecast period, and IFR at KMAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 40 41 16 17 / 10 70 90 90 Carlsbad 38 42 26 30 / 20 60 90 90 Dryden 46 61 28 36 / 10 20 70 80 Fort Stockton 47 52 24 30 / 10 40 90 90 Guadalupe Pass 42 44 26 32 / 20 70 90 90 Hobbs 32 38 19 21 / 10 60 90 90 Marfa 40 62 34 42 / 10 40 80 90 Midland Intl Airport 41 44 19 21 / 20 60 90 90 Odessa 41 45 17 20 / 20 60 90 90 Wink 37 48 21 24 / 30 60 90 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry- Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.