textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s.

A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours at the TAF sites though MVFR CIGs could approach MAF to the east near 12Z. Gusty winds will subside for a few hours from 09-15Z before increasing again due to daytime heating.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 71 90 61 / 0 10 30 40 Carlsbad 94 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 102 73 97 68 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Stockton 100 67 98 64 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 91 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 69 93 62 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 97 69 93 63 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 98 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor- Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.