textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1236 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail possible during the afternoon and evening today.

- Strong (35 mph or greater) winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes Friday morning-Friday afternoon.

- Colder temperatures (highs below 70F, lows below 50F) for much of the area by Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Current radar shows convection rapidly developing near Monahans. Hi-res models have handled this well showing this location and time consistently over the past several model runs so it increases confidence in their output going forward. This is important with models continuing to show a rain event developing across West Texas and into the South Plains over the next several days.

In the short term, models are showing this current round of storms developing and quickly moving off to the northeast before midnight. Some of these storms will be strong and one or two could be severe. Instability is marginal and shear is strong though unidirectional. Heavy rain and flooding will be the primary threat with strong gusty winds a lesser secondary threat. Any hail would probably be small but could briefly become marginally large (~1").

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for a flood threat that will exist through Friday morning. It begins this evening with the onset of the current convection, but there will be a long lull in activity before the next round begins Wednesday afternoon. It is this second round that will begin the primary flood threat. Tropical moisture being advected in from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific Ocean will make any storms prolific rain producers. Storms will be moving quickly (25-35mph) but cell training could cause areas to be hit repeatedly allowing for high rainfall totals. The difficulty in messaging this weather event is that while some areas will get heavy rainfall and flooding, other areas will not. When we say "some areas can expect 1-2" rainfall totals" everyone will assume themselves to be in the area where 1-2" of rain will fall. And there will definitely be areas that receive less than an inch. Brief but heavy rainfall places the main threat area in urban locations and low water crossings where drainage is poor.

Hennig

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Another difficulty in messaging this rain event may be the perception that because the watch exists through Friday morning, it will be raining almost continuously through Friday morning. This is not the case. Models are consistently showing that there will be several rain events, mostly occurring during the overnight hours. A lack of rainfall during the day may seem as though the threat has been exaggerated. However storm total rainfall amounts from several ensemble models indicate a swath of potential for 1-2" rainfall and even an outlier possibility of up to 5". For our CWA those rainfall totals warrant a watch for the threat of flooding.

The rain is the headline grabber but that is not the only weather interest this week. A strong cold front arrives Friday bringing our first real taste of fall as many areas fail to break 60 degrees for highs! That followed by lows in the 40s will bring a chill not seen since the spring to TX/SE NM. In addition, windy conditions behind the front will make Friday a brisk day to be outdoors. So go into the cabinet and dust off those chili, chicken soup, and caldo recipes...they will be needed. At least for a couple of days before warmer weather returns early next week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

TEMPOs added in at all sites, but CNM where confidence is lowest for impact at the terminal. However, amendments will be necessary through the period as rounds of storms move through and redevelop near any sites. Outside of convection, winds stay southerly around 10-15kts with occasional gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 67 77 51 / 70 80 90 80 Carlsbad 88 61 81 52 / 10 0 10 50 Dryden 91 72 83 55 / 40 60 70 90 Fort Stockton 87 66 79 49 / 70 70 80 90 Guadalupe Pass 78 59 73 45 / 0 0 10 60 Hobbs 81 60 75 48 / 30 20 20 40 Marfa 81 59 75 42 / 40 50 70 90 Midland Intl Airport 84 67 75 51 / 70 80 90 80 Odessa 84 67 75 51 / 60 70 90 80 Wink 85 66 80 52 / 30 40 50 80

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...None.