textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Flash flood risk beginning Tuesday evening, with highest chance of flash flooding from the Big Bend through the northern Permian Basin on Wednesday evening and Thursday evening.

- Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail possible during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Strong (35 mph or greater) winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes Friday morning-Friday afternoon.

- Colder temperatures (highs below 70F, lows below 60F) for much of the area by Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Very warm high temperatures (upper 80s to 90s F for most of the area, apart from upper 70s to lower 80s F for the Guadalupes and upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande) persist for the next two days. Rain chances also remain low (less than 30%) until Tuesday evening. Any storm development today will largely depend on whether heating of elevated terrain near lee troughing over SE NM into the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend is sufficient to overcome any capping and stable air near the surface. The most likely timing of storms - should any form - is between 3 pm and 9 pm today, with the highest chance being over the Davis Mountains into the Upper Trans Pecos. Southeast winds increase this afternoon into the 15 to 25 mph range for the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, continuing into the late evening hours. Lows tonight fall into 70s F for the lowlands as a result of these breezy winds limiting overnight cooling, while dew point temperatures above 50F even for the higher elevations limit overnight cooling and keep lows from the Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains in the 60s F.

Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a mid to upper storm system over the Desert SW funnels in moisture from TS Rachel, while southeasterly near surface winds east of western higher terrain persist. With PWATs increasing above 1.50" (near the climatological peak for this time of year) as a result and dew point temperatures remaining in the 60s F for the lowlands east of western higher terrain, there will be an increasing risk of flash flooding as storm chances increase Tuesday afternoon through evening. PoPs rise up to 35% to 45% for late Tuesday afternoon through evening for the Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin as high-res CAMs show isolated storms developing over the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau, then moving northeast into the Permian Basin by evening. SPC has outlooked the region in a MRGL risk for Tuesday, with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. More than 25 knots shear in model soundings will be favorable for organization of long-lived strong to severe storms, but the larger risk will remain flash flooding. QPF Tuesday night shows swathes of 0.25", with higher amounts possible in regions of repeated storms and/or locally heavier, longer-lived storms. Lows fall into the 70s F for the lowlands, 60s F for the higher elevations once more, as rain chances and low clouds persist through the overnight hours. This will not be the end of the flash flood risk for this week. See the Long Term Discussion below for more details.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The first part of the Long Term (Wednesday-Friday) is characterized by a continued heavy rain and flash flood risk. Isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds remain possible, but risk of severe convective weather stays secondary to hydrological impacts. Moisture streaming from southwest to northeast from the remnants of TS Rachel and northeast moving Hurricane Simon landfalling over the Pacific Coast of MX will enhance rain chances from the Big Bend through the northern Permian Basin, with a sharp cutoff in higher rainfall from Culberson County into the Eddy County Plains. Similar to Tuesday, while not every place will see heavy rain, potential exists for swathes of at least 0.25" to 0.50" of rainfall. Ensembles are indicating 1.5" to 2.0" in heaviest storms both Wednesday and Thursday, but with most likely higher amounts remaining in the 1.0" to 1.5" range each day. As on previous days, coverage is uncertain and not every place is guaranteed to see rain, but flash flooding will become more of a concern in regions that see repeated rounds of heavy storms where soils become more saturated. At this time, central and eastern portions of the area are outlooked in a MRGL to SLGT risk of excessive rain from Tuesday until Friday, so we anticipate that flood watch products may need to be issued in subsequent shifts. With widespread cloud cover, highs trend down below 90F for the lowlands and into the upper 70s to lower 80s F for the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains Wednesday, while lows remain in the 60s and 70s F. Then, as a cold front begins to develop into the northern part of the area by Thursday, highs shift further down into the mid 70s to mid 80s F as southeasterly winds shift to the northerly by the late afternoon through evening. This will be followed by lows falling below 60F, below 50F for the Guadalupes/Delawares and Davis Mountains and below 70F for the Rio Grande.

The second part of the Long Term (Friday-Saturday) will be characterized by strong (at least 35 mph) northeast winds over the Guadalupes/Delawares and passes and below average temperatures. PoPs remain high (45% to 60%) for much of the area, before decreasing below 30% from northeast to southwest through Friday afternoon. There has been a continued signal for strong northeast winds with gusts up to 50 mph for late Thursday evening-Friday morning in association with a reinforcing backdoor cold front that will deliver a continental polar air mass over the area. As of now, ensembles depict a 35% to 50% chance of wind gusts of at least 58 mph for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes for early Friday morning through early Friday afternoon, while NWP guidance also shows GDP meeting High Wind criteria during this time period. Additionally, there is a high (greater than 70%) chance of winds gusting above 45 mph for much of the western higher terrain and at least meeting Wind Advisory criteria, with 25 to 35 mph in the lowlands. Ensemble spreads in temperatures show a consistent signal of highs failing to rise above 70F for much of the area, settling within a most likely range of 55F-65F. After the prolonged very warm temperatures, anyone traveling outdoors may feel unaccustomed to this abrupt change in temperature coupled with strong winds. Therefore, as rain chances taper off from northeast to southwest, we are expecting Friday to feel windy and cold, with wind chills down to the 30s and 40s F for highest elevations of the Guadalupes/Delawares and Davis Mountains. Lows fall largely into the 40s to lower 50s F Friday night before once again largely failing to rise above 70F for Saturday. Thereafter, mid to upper ridging builds from the Desert SW and a renewed warming trend is expected into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions throughout TAF period. SE-SW winds increase to 15 to 25 mph for terminals from MAF-FST through 00Z, and persist through 10Z-12Z, with winds remaining light for terminals elsewhere after 03Z-06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 93 72 87 / 0 20 50 80 Carlsbad 67 91 66 88 / 10 0 10 10 Dryden 73 93 74 91 / 0 20 20 30 Fort Stockton 71 93 70 87 / 0 40 70 70 Guadalupe Pass 62 79 61 78 / 10 0 10 0 Hobbs 67 88 66 81 / 20 10 70 60 Marfa 63 87 63 81 / 10 10 70 60 Midland Intl Airport 72 91 71 84 / 0 30 60 80 Odessa 72 91 71 83 / 0 30 70 80 Wink 72 93 70 86 / 10 10 70 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.