textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Best storm chances will be today and Wednesday, roughly along an axis from the Presidio Valley, through the Davis Mountains, through the northern Permian Basin. Chances become more confined to the higher terrain Thursday into the weekend.

- Near-normal temperatures gradually warm back above normal by the end of the week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

As temperatures warm up, showers and storms will develop from around Big Bend north into the Davis Mountains and southeast New Mexico. A few storms will be strong to severe and be capable of producing damaging winds and small hail in addition to lightning. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat as some areas received rain yesterday that are likely to receive more rain today, such as portions of Presidio and Brewster counties. Best rain chances remain generally west of Midland/Odessa with the eastern Permian Basin more than likely staying mostly dry. Tonight, showers and storms gradually decay with the loss of daytime heating. Breezy southeast winds and lingering cloud cover keep temperatures for most in the 70s, but rain cooled areas in the higher elevations dip into the 60s.

Heading into Wednesday, rain chances (20-50%) continue for areas west of the Pecos River Valley. Once again, heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. A combination of the increased cloud cover and nearby upper level low will keep temperatures below normal for tomorrow as many locations reach the 80s to low 90s. Similar conditions to tonight are expected Wednesday night as any places that did not get much rain settle into the 70s. The higher elevations cool into the 60s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Upper-level ridging starts to shift westward by the end of the week and into the weekend. As a result, temperatures gradually begin to climb back above normal. While highs in the mid-to-upper 90s will be commonplace Thursday (80s in the higher terrain), upper 90s and highs near the century mark become more widespread by Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances (generally 20-40%) also become more confined to the higher terrain west of the Pecos during this timeframe, especially the Davis Mountains. By the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, our area ends up on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Long range guidance attempts to develop an inverted trough near our area during this time. This, along with increasing moisture, would once again open the door for more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances early next week (currently 20-40%). This would also allow highs to once again cool into the low-to-mid 90s for most locations by Monday and Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions remain for all terminals. TEMPOs added for afternoon convection that will develop around 19-21z and continue through sunset this evening. Outside of storms, winds will be breezy and southeasterly with gusts decreasing by tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 93 69 94 / 40 30 20 30 Dryden 75 97 75 98 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 72 92 72 94 / 20 30 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 67 86 66 87 / 70 30 10 40 Hobbs 68 89 68 91 / 40 20 20 20 Marfa 61 84 60 86 / 40 60 30 50 Midland Intl Airport 73 92 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 73 91 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 73 92 72 94 / 40 30 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.