textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon, waning this evening and overnight.

- Near normal temperatures expected Wednesday through the rest of the week.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are forecast mainly west of the Pecos River Thursday afternoon.

- Rain chances return Friday and through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday and Sunday. Specifics to be ironed out over the coming days!

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Showers and light thunderstorms have been occurring throughout the morning across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This is thanks to a shortwave trough moving across the area. Scattered showers and storms will persist this afternoon, eventually waning this evening and overnight as the shortwave departs. For most of the area, rainfall totals remain light overall. The thick cloud cover and rain keep temperatures near-to-below normal today. Locations in the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico generally top out in the 60s and low 70s, whereas farther south highs in the low-to-mid 70s will be more common. Lows tonight dip into the 40s for most (low 50s along the Rio Grande). Skies clear for much of the area Wednesday, allowing temperatures to top out closer to normal. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s are forecast across the region. Southeasterly winds bring moisture back into the area Wednesday as a surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies. The increasing moisture overnight Wednesday keeps lows in the 50s for most (mid-to-upper 40s in typical cool spots, 60s along the Rio Grande).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

An active weather pattern is expected within the Long Term period, elevating rain chances and the potential for strong to severe storms. Thursday, an upper level ridge slides east across the Desert Southwest, while a disturbance drifts northeast out of northwestern Mexico. A lee trough develops over the central Plains as the upper trough approaches. This brings breezy south/ southeasterly winds to the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Thursday afternoon. This feature will also sharpen a dryline just west the TX/NM border Thursday afternoon, leading to isolated to widely scattered shower/storm development. Rain chances range from 10-40% west of the Pecos River Thursday afternoon, with best (30-40%) odds over the higher terrain south of the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, highs Thursday are forecast to top out in the 80s, with some locations south of I- 10 reaching the upper 70s. Shortwave disturbances continue to roll over our region Friday, keeping low to medium (10-50%) rain chances in the forecast during the afternoon and evening. At the moment, activity looks to remain sub-severe Friday. Temperatures Friday afternoon are also expected to be similar to Thursday, along with continued breezy southeast winds over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

Another, more robust system looks to impact our region over the weekend. Models show upper level southwesterly winds increasing as a negatively tilted trough digs into SoCal and Baja Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure over the southeastern US brings plentiful moisture to our region through much of the weekend. As the upper trough nears, a lee trough also develops, allowing for a dryline to bisect our region and aid in shower/storm activity Saturday and Sunday. Based on ensembles, PWAT's Saturday range between 1-1.2 for most of the eastern half of our region (over the 95th percentile of climatology for MAF for this time of year). Strong lift ahead of the trough, combined with ample bulk shear and an unstable airmass, potential for strong to severe storm development is increasing for both Saturday and Sunday. Most of the region looks to have scattered shower/storm activity Saturday, with better rain chances shifting eastward Sunday. Confidence in exact timing and coverage of severe storm development remains low at the time. Therefore, keep monitoring the forecast as details become clearer as we head toward the weekend! This system begins to depart to our northeast Sunday into Monday, though another system is progged to be right on its heels. Again, specifics on this particular system are uncertain at this time, so this may warrant some monitoring as well. Otherwise, temperatures over the weekend are expected to range within the 70s and 80s during the afternoons, with 80s being more prominent on Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows shall dip into the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a fairly widespread cu field early afternoon Wednesday, w/bases ~ 4.5 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 47 79 55 81 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 45 82 51 85 / 10 0 0 20 Dryden 52 79 59 81 / 20 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 50 81 57 84 / 10 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 46 74 53 76 / 10 10 0 20 Hobbs 42 79 50 82 / 10 0 0 10 Marfa 40 77 44 76 / 0 10 0 50 Midland Intl Airport 47 77 56 80 / 10 0 0 10 Odessa 47 77 56 80 / 10 0 0 10 Wink 47 79 55 83 / 10 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.