textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Slight chance (25% to 35%) of strong to severe storms 7-8 pm through 12-1 am for parts of SE NM plains. Main risks are damaging winds, brief heavy rainfall, and line-embedded tornadoes.

- Strong west winds (40 to 50 mph, gusts up to 65 mph) for the Guadalupes/Delawares Monday morning through Monday evening.

- Mild daytime temperatures (60s to 70s F highs) and chilly nighttime temperatures (40s to 50s F lows) rest of week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A warmer day is in store for the first day of November, but unlike yesterday, there is also a chance of storms. Mid to upper level ridging increases ahead of a system currently progressing across the Great Basin into the Desert SW. This system spreads increased southwest winds over the area and focuses moisture aloft, while persistent near surface southeast winds transport warm (mid 70s to 80s F) and humid (60s F dew point temperatures) to the foothills of the western higher terrain. With such instability present, some high- res CAMs depict tail end of storms from east-central NM developing into parts of the SE NM plains from 7-8 pm through 12-1 am, especially for Lea County. Shear increases above 35 knots and SRH above 80 m2/s2 in model forecast soundings, favorable for both damaging wind gusts and line- embedded tornadoes in any storms that hold together as they develop east/northeast. PWATs above 1" will likely be offset by fast storm motion, limiting hydrologic impacts to brief heavy rainfall. SPC has increased extent of the MRGL risk area over the SE NM plains, while PoPs have trended up, even though coverage remains isolated and not everyone will see rain. Highs will be characterized by much the same mid 70s to 80s F temperatures. Forcing for storms will also be provided overnight by a Pacific cold front developing east. West of this front, lows drop into the 50s F, while ahead, lows remain in the 60s F. As the frontal passage occurs, southerly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph, then shift to westerly. This sets the stage for a period of strong winds beginning early Monday morning.

Westerly sustained winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph (highest chance 45% to 50% for northern Guadalupes Monday morning through early afternoon) are still indicated for the Guadalupes/Delawares beginning sunrise-mid-morning and continuing through early evening-late tomorrow night. As a result, the High Wind Watch during this period for the Guadalupes/Delawares has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Winds of this magnitude will pose a risk to high profile vehicles and light aircraft, and reduce visibility in patchy blowing dust (despite recent wetting rains). Travel through the passes and Carlsbad Caverns National Park is not advised tomorrow. Winds will still gust to 25 to 35 mph for lowlands leeward of western higher terrain and behind the Pacific cold front. There is a very low (less than 25%) chance of showers/storms for the easternmost Permian Basin into Terrell County in the afternoon/evening if the Pacific cold front is not able to clear all of the area, and strong storms cannot be ruled out. In spite of strong west winds behind the front and highs falling into the 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, highs remain in the 70s F for adjacent foothills and 80s F for lowlands both behind and ahead of the cold front. The real cooldown arrives Monday night as west winds shift to northwest/north and lows fall into the 40s F western higher terrain, lower 50s F adjacent foothills and plains, and mid 50s to lower 60s F elsewhere. Mild weather within the terrain modified Pacific air mass persists for the rest of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A fast paced but subdued alternating ridging/troughing mid to upper air pattern sets in within more zonal flow behind the Pacific cold front and associated mid to upper air system. This maintains highs within the mid 60s to mid 70s F and lows within the 40s to lower 50s F each day/night, as well as very low (less than 10%) rain chances. Dew point temperatures largely settle in the 40s F, drier than what we've experienced since summer and enough to result in diurnal variation of at least 20F-25F. Coupled with longer nights and clearer skies, the seasonal pattern will feel very attuned with the calendar, bringing the first real consistent cooler weather of autumn to the area. Frost will be possible on cooler nights for higher elevations of the Marfa Plateau, slowly putting an end to this year's growing season for that region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs will persist into the overnight hours, mainly KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, w/MVFR KMAF. Models are not handling this very well, and expect a lot of variability next 12 hrs or so. However, as winds veer to westerly near the end of the forecast period, expect conditions to rapidly scatter out to VFR as westerlies increase and become gusty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 64 81 54 70 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 74 51 68 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 63 81 59 72 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 64 83 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 65 46 62 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 60 74 49 67 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 56 75 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 79 53 68 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 64 79 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 79 53 71 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.