textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Low (10-20%) rain chances over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Shower/storm chances increase Wednesday afternoon over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Some storms may be strong to severe.

- Gusty winds and dry fuels lead to increased fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon and evening. High winds are expected in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains Wednesday as well.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase yet again Friday afternoon into Saturday for the Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos. A few storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is making its way toward our region at the moment. Meanwhile, a lee trough currently extends from the central Great Plains down toward just west of the Big Bend, with a dryline oriented northeast to southwest. By this afternoon, this feature is progged to shift eastward to roughly bisect our CWA in an east-west manner. The dryline will serve as a focal point for low (10-20%) chances of isolated shower/storm activity this afternoon over the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Best (~20%) odds look to be over the Stockton Plateau and the northeastern Permian Basin. A storm or two may be strong over these areas, producing frequent lighting and gusty winds. Rain chances then diminish and shift northeastward during the evening. This afternoon, highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Tuesday night, a cold front attempts to drop into the Texas Panhandle, though looks to become diffuse within the Panhandle by early Wednesday morning. This being the case, temperatures Tuesday night are forecast to fall to the 50s and 60s, with 60s being more prominent.

Wednesday, another upper trough translates across the Desert Southwest toward the Great Plains, approaching the western fringes of our area by Wednesday afternoon. The jet max associated with this system will aid in producing breezy to strong southwest/westerly winds across our region. The strongest winds look to impact the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. As such, a High Wind Watch is in effect for the mountains during this time frame. Winds approaching Advisory criteria are likely over the southeast New Mexico plains and higher terrain in west Texas. Areas where winds are strongest may also experience reductions to visibility due to blowing dust. Furthermore, a dryline is expected to sharpen up again within the eastern portions of our region Wednesday afternoon. Given strong winds and dry conditions west of the dryline, fire weather concerns increase Wednesday afternoon, prompting a Fire Weather Watch for the western half of our area. Aside from wind and fire hazards, those east of the dryline are expected to see isolated to widely scattered shower/storm activity Wednesday afternoon, with the dryline again serving as a focal point for development. Low (10-30%) rain chances are forecast from the Permian Basin down through the Lower Trans Pecos, with best (20-30%) odds exist within the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. A couple of these storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the main hazards. Models show storm activity expanding in coverage and moving east of our region through the evening, eventually consolidating into a line as a Pac front sweeps through. More details on how this evolves in the Long Term discussion. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday afternoon reach the 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage expands as activity moves towards the eastern edge of our area Wednesday night. The highest chances (40-70%) are reserved for the far eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans-Pecos. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, the Pacific front pushes convection (and the associated severe threat) east beyond our area, and gusty winds gradually diminish. Thursday looks much drier, and temperatures remain warm across the region (mainly 80s and low 90s, with some upper 70s in the higher terrain). However, by Friday moisture filters back into mainly eastern portions of the area behind southerly winds.

Friday, an upper-level trough begins making its way across the Plains. West Texas and southeast New Mexico are currently expected to remain on the southern edge of this trough. Nevertheless, pulses within the flow aloft will interact with increasing moisture east of the sharpening dryline, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms again on Friday and into Saturday. Much like Wednesday, the highest chances (which are generally in the 20-40% range) would be for the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. Medium- to-Long Range guidance indicates instability and shear will both be on the rise Friday into Saturday as well. As a result, we will be keeping a close eye on the severe weather potential for both of these days. By Saturday morning, a front pushes southward into west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This pushes rain chances farther south and brings much cooler temperatures across the region. Highs in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s look to become commonplace by the weekend and into early next week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds become westerly and southwesterly by this afternoon. With the redevelopment of the LLJ this evening, southerly winds will become breezy.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Min RHs once again drop below 15% today across much of southeast New Mexico and west Texas (save easternmost portions of the area). Nevertheless, winds generally remain light, which will limit fire weather concerns today. However, by Wednesday a developing surface low yields stronger winds, especially across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans-Pecos, and in/around the higher terrain. Fuels continue to remain very dry across the area as well. The potential caveat for fire weather Wednesday is min RHs. Relative humidity drops to around 15-20% across western portions of the area (higher for eastern portions). These RHs are fairly borderline. That being said, the strengthening westerly winds, coupled with the dry fuels, lead to increased fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another concern will be the potential for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Should thunderstorms develop over western portions of the area, lightning starts and gusty/erratic winds associated with storms would also be possible. Given these factors, have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch Wednesday afternoon and evening for southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans- Pecos, Gaines County, and the Guadalupe/Delaware and Davis Mountains (along with surrounding zones). Elevated to Near-Critical conditions may stick around Thursday as well as drier air filters back into the area following a front Wednesday night (though winds decrease relative to Wednesday's).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 92 62 90 56 / 10 10 20 50 Carlsbad 91 60 85 54 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 91 62 91 62 / 10 0 20 60 Fort Stockton 93 63 90 60 / 20 10 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 80 58 75 52 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 90 54 83 50 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 85 50 81 46 / 10 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 92 62 88 57 / 10 10 20 30 Odessa 92 62 88 57 / 10 10 10 30 Wink 92 59 88 54 / 0 0 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.