textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Hot and dry conditions are expected through midweek. Hazardous heat will be possible over portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Storm chances increase over western portions of the area late in the week. Temperatures will otherwise remain above normal across the region Thursday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Upper-level high pressure remains centered near the Four Corners early this morning with the associated ridge axis extending eastward over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A weak shortwave impulse moved along the southeastern periphery of the ridge Saturday afternoon and evening and aided in the development of a few showers and thunderstorms that produced localized welcome rainfall and brief strong and gusty winds over portions of the Permian Basin. The last of this activity dissipated just west of Big Lake shortly before midnight. The shortwave impulse will continue to weaken overnight and short range model guidance is in good agreement with showing increased subsidence over our forecast area today as the upper-level ridge builds eastward across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Pretty much all guidance points to dry weather conditions across the forecast area today, except for perhaps a very brief/ isolated shower or thunderstorm that may develop this afternoon over the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau or southern Big Bend. The probability of measurable rainfall will be less than 10% over those locations today, and zero for the rest of the area. High temperatures will continue to range in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over most of our region, except in the lower 90s in the mountains and between 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Pretty much a rinse and repeat forecast for Monday with hot and dry conditions expected as upper-level ridging remains the dominant feature.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast. Upper-level ridging will remain strong across the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states by the latter part of the week, but our area will still be located along the western influence of this feature. Hot temperatures will continue through next week, with the highest readings expected Tuesday-Thursday, with high temperatures up to 100- 105 degrees over southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos and portions of the Permian Basin. Highs along the Rio Grande may reach up to 105- 110 degrees. Dry weather conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday, except for very isolated storms that may develop over the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and/or southern Big Bend. Atmospheric moisture may increase over western portions of the forecast area during the middle to latter part of the week on the western side of the ridge. There may be an uptick in convective coverage over our western zones, especially in the higher terrain areas Wednesday-Friday. Convective chances will be minimal over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where subsidence may be stronger. Upper-ridging may tend to build westward over our area again by next weekend, so storm chances may be lower over our western zones. Summer time heat continues into the weekend with temperatures remaining several degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a cu field late morning/early afternoon everywhere but KCNM, w/bases ~ 5-9 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 72 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 99 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 91 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 97 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 91 63 92 64 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.