textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend. Rain chances (10-40%) begin to increase Sunday night into early next week.

- A series of upper level disturbances will bring an increasing chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region Tuesday through much of next week. We will be monitoring for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding potential as well as for a few strong to severe storms.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue below an upper level ridge this afternoon. Current 500mb RAP analysis depicts the upper ridge spanning over Texas and much of the Southern Plains, while a trough digs into the western half of the CONUS. This afternoon, highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s (mainly within the Upper Trans Pecos and near/along the Rio Grande valley). Surface troughing extending from the Central Plains into eastern New Mexico brings breezy, southerly to southeasterly winds across the region this afternoon and evening. Disturbances in southwesterly flow aloft along with moisture convergence along the surface trough may result in isolated to scattered showers/storms late this afternoon and evening. Rain chances this evening range from 10-30% over Eddy and Culberson counties, with the best odds in and near the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Rain chances then diminish overnight and temperatures generally cool to the 60s.

Monday, thickness increases a touch further ahead of a deepening storm system. Consequently, temperatures tick up a few degrees over Sunday, as highs in the 90s expand to include most of the Permian Basin, SE NM, and the Big Bend region. Highs in the upper 80s are forecast for the higher terrain and surrounding areas. The aforementioned surface trough is progged to extend from the Texas Panhandle into SE NM and down toward the Presidio Valley Monday evening. This will again serve as a focal point for isolated shower/storm development when combined with lift from passing disturbances aloft. Low (10-30%) rain chances overlay SE NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and our westernmost counties tomorrow evening. An active weather pattern looks to take shape with an approaching storm system heading into the Long Term period. Details below...

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The long term forecast remains on track as a large upper low looks to move into the western US by Monday evening. Moisture from what is now Hurricane Simon will be pulled north into the region and impulses ahead of the longwave trough will combine to increase rain chances into Tuesday and Wednesday. Some uncertainty remains with where the highest rain totals will end up over the course of the week. Medium range guidance continues to show the highest chances (30-50%) across the Permian basin with lower chances to the east and west of our CWA. A shift in where the moisture ends up may mean more rain to the east of west of the Permian Basin. The most organized storms may be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Given the tropical origin of the airmass, these storms will be efficient rain producers and make localized flash flooding a threat through Thursday.

Despite the increased rain chances, well above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday before decreasing from Thursday into next weekend. A cold front approaches and moves through on Thursday that looks to move temperatures near or just below normal for mid October. Once the front moves through, highs on Friday and Saturday only make it into the 60s and 70s for most. Overnight lows during that time fall into the 40s and 50s. Rain chances decrease late Friday and into Saturday.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail, along with breezy south to southeasterly winds. Winds may occasionally gust up to 30 kts at most terminals this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 92 66 93 68 / 0 20 0 10 Dryden 89 69 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 67 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 64 82 65 / 0 40 0 10 Hobbs 87 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 20 Marfa 84 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 87 68 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 88 68 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 93 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.