textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Patchy (locally dense) fog possible early this morning mainly across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Pecos River Valley.

- Numerous showers/storms are in store today through Friday evening. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially across low-lying and urban areas.

- Another system brings windy conditions and near-to-below normal temperatures to the area early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, nighttime microphysics show high clouds over much of the region with mid-level clouds across portions of southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend. Increasing low-level moisture is expected to develop low clouds shortly before the morning commute. Meanwhile, patchy (locally dense) fog looks to develop around the same time across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Pecos River Valley, and the Permian Basin. Wherever dense fog develops, visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile. However, high clouds and winds may limit fog development (or at least density) this morning.

An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move overhead while remnant moisture from what was Tropical Storm Vance gets pulled into the area. Bands of rain are expected to move into our southernmost zones around the Big Bend early this morning before spreading northward. As these bands move north, coverage of showers and storms are expected to become scattered to numerous. Showers and storms reach the Trans Pecos and southern portions of the Permian Basin by this afternoon and southeast New Mexico/northern Permian Basin by late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to show Precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding the 90th climatological percentile across the eastern half of our CWA. This suggests a favorable environment for flash flooding, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. To account for this, a Flood Watch is in effect from late Thursday morning through late Friday afternoon. Hi-res models continues to show a brief window of opportunity for a storm or two becoming strong to severe Thursday afternoon. Though the overall severe threat is low, excessive water loading may produce a brief wet microburst or two.

The heavy rainfall/flash flood threat increases Thursday night through Friday morning as tropical moisture increases and heights continue to drop with the upper-level shortwave. Urban streets and low-lying spots are where the biggest concerns of considerable flash flooding may result given their vulnerabilities. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to trend toward rainfall amounts of 1-3" (locally higher) across the eastern eastern half of our CWA. However, uncertainty remains in where the exact heaviest rainfall amounts will occur. Where the heaviest rainfall sets up will be strongly dependent on the track of the low from remnants of what was Tropical Storm Vance. Since the latest hi-res guidance continues to favor the highest rainfall totals east of the Pecos River, we have opted not to expand the Flood Watch farther west.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

By Friday night, the bulk of convection moves north and east beyond our area. Behind the upper-level system Saturday morning and afternoon, some remnant isolated showers will be possible across the area. The relatively better chances will be across our far western counties and in/near the higher terrain (10-30% chances there). Nevertheless, given the isolated nature of this convection, most locations still look to remain dry for Halloween. By Sunday, the active weather pattern continues as a pair of upper-level troughs approach west Texas and southeast New Mexico from the west and northwest. Ahead of this, shower and thunderstorm chances increase again, this time mainly across southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. Chances range from 20-40% in general for these locations.

Monday and Tuesday, the aforementioned troughs (which at this time will have merged together) move across the region. By Monday afternoon, most moisture will have been pushed east of our area. That keeps rain chances at a minimum for most locations as the upper low passes. The exception will be in the Lower Trans-Pecos and far eastern Permian Basin, where remnant moisture allows low (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances to hang around through Monday evening. As the system moves across the region, an attendant upper- level jet moves overhead, while a nearby surface low pushes a cold front into our area. Both of these features imply windy conditions Monday and Tuesday across the vast majority of west Texas and southeast New Mexico, but it is too early to tell if/where wind products will be necessary (though this pattern certainly does favor at least high winds in the Guadalupes). Otherwise temperatures cool behind the front. Highs Saturday through Monday largely top out in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, plenty of spread still exists within guidance as to just how much cooler we get, but right now it looks like most locations will see highs in the upper 60s and low 70s (near-to-below seasonal norms for early November).

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

IFR/LIFR CIGs have developed over HOB and is expected to continue through at least 16Z. Latest obs show BR at HOB/MAF as of 1130Z. Any BR/FG that develops this morning shall mix out by 15Z/16Z. RA/TSRA expected to develop south of FST by 15Z/16Z before spreading northward this afternoon and evening. IFR with brief LIFR CIGs dominate much of this TAF period while some sites bounce between MVFR and IFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 59 69 58 / 70 100 100 20 Carlsbad 75 57 72 56 / 60 90 20 20 Dryden 71 60 73 61 / 100 100 40 30 Fort Stockton 73 60 74 59 / 80 100 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 67 54 66 54 / 50 80 10 20 Hobbs 72 55 67 53 / 70 100 50 10 Marfa 68 53 71 52 / 90 90 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 59 69 58 / 90 100 80 10 Odessa 73 59 69 59 / 80 100 70 10 Wink 75 59 72 58 / 80 100 30 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Crane- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton- Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.