textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions continue over portions of southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West Texas.

- Shower and storm chances (generally 20-50%) continue from Saturday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Observations this morning show the dryline has become established from southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend. Daytime heating will cause the dryline to mix east into the eastern most counties of the CWA this afternoon therefore any storms developing due to the surface convergence will be to our east. Models show isolated convection could develop late tonight from Big Lake to Snyder as the dryline retreats back east though storms should be very isolated.

An upper trough moving across the northern Plains pushes a cold front south Saturday morning bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs Saturday will be about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today with most areas holding in the 60s and a few 80s and 90s in southern Brewster and Presidio counties. Low rain chances continue Saturday in the eastern counties where the dryline remains ahead of the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The cool and near normal temperatures remain Sunday as surface high pressure settles into North Texas. Models have long shown a large cutoff low forming over northern Mexico and drifting northeast across West Texas next week and this scenario is still being shown in the models. NBM ensemble guidance has low to medium (20-50%) PoPs for the entirety of next week though this seems over done. Rain chances will be low through Monday before an upper ridge ahead of the low passes east and instability increases. That is when higher rain chances are expected as the low approaches and moves across the CWA. There are no surface features to focus showers so rainfall should be scattered about the area and details on timing and location will be difficult to nail down until early next week. Temperatures warm next week though the presence of clouds and cooler temps aloft from the upper low should keep highs in the 70s for most of the week. We may see another cold front late next week as the upper low exits east.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions from beginning of the period into 05Z-10Z Saturday. A low but non-zero chance of MVFR or lower conditions at terminals over the eastern Permian Basin in any showers/storms tonight, followed by VFR conditions once more thereafter into the end of the period. Breezy, westerly 15 to 25 knot winds at terminals decrease and shift to northwest 02Z-07Z Saturday. Winds then shift to northeast 09Z-15Z and again become breezy 15 to 20 knots with another cold front passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos south into the Davis Mountains. Very windy conditions are expected in the mountains with windy conditions spreading east in to the adjacent plains. Minimum relative humidities will easily drop below 15 percent leading to critical atmospheric fire weather conditions. ERC values have been creeping up and fuels are getting more favorable for burning. A cold front moves Saturday dropping temperatures and easing fire weather conditions the remainder of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 45 61 42 67 / 20 30 20 30 Carlsbad 42 66 40 66 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 55 76 51 67 / 10 20 40 40 Fort Stockton 49 68 46 64 / 10 10 40 40 Guadalupe Pass 44 58 42 61 / 0 0 20 10 Hobbs 40 64 37 68 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 37 68 37 65 / 0 0 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 47 63 44 67 / 20 10 20 30 Odessa 47 64 44 66 / 20 10 20 30 Wink 44 66 43 66 / 10 0 20 30

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.