textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected to continue, with highs 10-20 degrees above normal through much of the forecast period.

- Widespread highs in the low 80s are expected Saturday.

- Fire weather concerns are elevated Saturday afternoon as record warmth, low relative humidities, breezy conditions, and drying fuels are forecast.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Water vapor and visible satellite imagery shows thin high clouds moving in from the northwest, indicating northwest flow aloft. Despite a few passing high clouds across portions of the area today, mostly sunny skies are still expected. Thanks to mostly sunny skies, northwest flow aloft, and southwesterly to southerly surface winds, afternoon highs are forecast to be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday's across the northern half of the CWA. Breezy conditions (15-25 mph sustained, with gusts up to 30 mph) are to continue through the late afternoon and evening hours across the higher terrain and Permian Basin due to surface lee troughing. Despite clear skies tonight, breezy conditions will help keep overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Record-breaking high temperatures on Saturday remains very likely (75-95%) across the Permian Basin and Upper/Lower Trans-Pecos regions as guidance has consistently been in very good agreement (thanks to strong surface westerly downslope flow and zonal flow aloft). For reference, the previous record high at KMAF was 79F (set back in 2010) and afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low 80s for most. The forecast remains on track for breezy conditions to continue during the day Saturday, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph (higher gusts in elevated terrain) as a surface low associated with lee troughing develops to our north. Given the strong westerly downslope winds and dry conditions, fire weather concerns for Saturday afternoon are elevated (please see Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details).

The aforementioned cold front is expected to sweep through the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, shaving 5-10 degrees off tonight's lows for most. With that said, expect Saturday night lows in mid 30s to low 40s across the northern half of the forecast area. The Short Term period continues to be dry as there is a lack of deep moisture and any sources of lift.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The cold front is forecast to have a major impact on Sunday's temperatures as well, with afternoon highs forecast to drop 15-20 degrees cooler than the previous day for most. However, this is short-lived as increasing heights associated with ridging aloft returns by early next week. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis has been consistent in maintaining this weather pattern through most of next week. As such, temperatures will be about the same each day, with highs ranging in the upper 70s to low 80s. Even overnight lows look to be well-above normal, with lows in the 40s and 50s each night. Dry conditions continue throughout the extended.

Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Winds remain southerly to southwesterly for the TAF period. Gusts return during the day tomorrow with speeds between 20-25kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Fire weather concerns become elevated across the region Saturday afternoon as record high temperatures drive down afternoon humidities below 15 percent. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph in some areas will aid in elevated fire weather conditions. However, winds should be light enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ERCs in the 75th to 89th percentile range are forecast to develop across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos regions, indicating drying fuels. Fuel moisture values at or below the 25th percentile are expected in some locations. With all of that in mind, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is likely (>90% chance) to be issued for Saturday afternoon during the next forecast package.

Greening

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 44 83 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 50 81 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 43 85 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 85 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 48 70 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 46 79 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 76 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 46 81 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 47 81 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 43 82 39 65 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.