textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - Warm and dry conditions expected through the middle part of the week.

- High winds may impact the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains at times during the early to middle part of the week. The strongest winds in the Guadalupe Mountains are anticipated Tuesday. Breezy conditions also spread from the southeast New Mexico plains to the Permian Basin today through midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

IR satellite imagery shows high level cloud cover spreading across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas early this morning within increasing W-NW flow aloft. A surface trough is meanwhile positioned from the Texas panhandle into the western Big Bend region. Southerly surface winds are in place over much of our area with this pattern with mild temperatures early this morning. Mid to upper level winds will continue to strengthen over our region today through Tuesday ahead of an upper-level low deepening over California and the Desert Southwest. Surface low pressure will also deepen over Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles ahead of this system today, with the surface trough axis/dryline extending southward from this feature into the eastern Permian Basin and down into the Big Bend. Westerly surface winds will increase over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much of the Permian Basin late this morning into this afternoon. Wind speeds may briefly approach high wind thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon, but appear to be borderline enough to preclude a High Wind Warning issuance there today. Still could see speeds up to around 40 mph with brief gusts over 55 mph around Guadalupe Pass and the higher elevations for a few hours this afternoon. Much warmer temperatures can be expected as low level thermal ridging enhances along the surface trough axis along with the westerly winds. Highs are forecast to range in the mid 80s to lower 90s over most of our region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue into tonight as high clouds continue to spill into our region but dry weather is otherwise expected. It will be another mild night with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the area.

Winds aloft continue to strengthen on Tuesday as an upper-level jet max spreads over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A cold front will push into the Texas panhandle on Tuesday. Westerly surface winds will increase over western and northern portions of our forecast area again Wednesday in response to the approaching upper-level jet max and surface gradient. The strongest winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, where westerly wind speeds of 40 to 50 mph and gusts up to 70 mph will be possible from late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday evening. A High Wind Watch has been posted. Windy conditions also spread into the southeast New Mexico plains, the western/northern Permian Basin Basin, and southwest Mountains, but currently look to remain above advisory thresholds over these locations. Another warm day is on tap with highs in the 80s to lower 90s over much of the area, except for 70s in the higher terrain areas and in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A large scale trough will extend from the central to southwest CONUS on Wednesday. Dry west to southwest flow aloft will be prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday. The cold front over the Texas panhandle doesn't make much southward progress during the day Wednesday, so we anticipate another warm day with increased westerly westerly winds over much our area again during the late morning through early evening hours. Winds could approach warning thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains again Wednesday afternoon, with breezy/windy conditions stretching out into the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin. Highs should reach into the 80s again over much of the region, except for 70s in the higher terrain and 90s along the Rio Grande. The cold front will finally get a push southward through our forecast area Wednesday night with breezy northeasterly winds developing behind this feature. A shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly flow aloft could aid in the development of isolated showers or thunderstorms over the southeastern Permian Basin and eastern portions of the Lower Trans Pecos along the boundary Wednesday night, but the better chance of showers/storms will probably remain confined to the east and southeast of our forecast area. The forecast does reflect low (10-20 percent) POPs over the southeastern part of our CWA Wednesday night. Low temperatures will trend colder behind the front with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s over higher terrain areas and locations along and north of I-20. Highs Thursday trend back to below normal readings in the 70s for much of the area. The upper low over the vicinity of the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico may slowly progress toward our forecast area through the latter part of the week. Deep layer moisture quality overall looks lacking over our forecast area late in the week, but perhaps enough to support a very low chance of light showers (10-20 percent) over eastern portions of our area on Thursday, but most of our region will probably stay dry. Temperatures will trend warmer Friday through the weekend with minimal precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light southerly winds will gradually turn southwesterly to westerly and increase with some gusts over 25 knots late this morning through early this evening before diminishing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 64 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 87 63 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 91 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 91 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 59 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 60 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 84 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 89 63 86 60 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.