textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Warm and dry to end 2025 and begin 2026.

- Breezy conditions tomorrow and Friday. A brief period of high winds are forecast for the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions persist through at least the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies except for high thin clouds drifting northeast to southwest. With mid to upper ridging continuing to build from MX and Desert SW east into the area and associated large scale sinking and warming air, the warming trend in high temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees from the previous day and low temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees from the previous night persists. Where there is still some remnant snowpack over the SE NM plains and southern Lea County, highs will again be up to 5 degrees cooler than surrounding regions. This all translates to lower to mid 60s F north of Pecos River, mid to upper 50s F Guadalupes into most of Eddy County Plains and southern Lea County, mid to upper 60s F south of Pecos River and north of Rio Grande basins, and upper 60s to 70s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County.

We will end 2025 as the sixth driest year on record and bring in 2026 the same way most of December 2025 has been: warm with highs in the upper 60s to 70s F, lows largely above freezing in the 30s and 40s F, along with dry weather and near zero precipitation chance. There is again a low probability of mist and fog developing in cooler spots according to visibility grids in the NBM, but this is likely to be even shorter-lived than today due to an even lower remnant snowpack over SE NM plains. Warmer than average temperatures return for New Years Day, accompanied by breezy west/southwest winds 20 to 25 mph for lower elevations and gusty west/southwest winds for higher elevations. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, where numerical guidance, NBM, and ensembles (40% to 60% probability) are showing gusts up to and above high wind criteria for the afternoon through overnight. Highs rise back into the mid to upper 70s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes, mid to upper 60s F Culberson County into Marfa Plateau, and 80s F from Big Bend into Terrell County. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s F Davis Mountains, mid 40s F rest of Marfa Plateau into Culberson County, SE NM plains, and western Permian Basin, with lower to mid 50s F elsewhere. These lows up to 10F warmer than tonight will be brought about not only by westerly downsloping winds limiting boundary layer cooling, but an increase in dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture from the 30s F today to upper 30s to lower 40s F tomorrow, limiting overnight cooling. Due to the temperature dew point temperature difference remaining above 5F, widespread mist or fog should not be an issue. However, minus any concerns about mist or fog, by late this week it will be as if the early winter weather event didn't even happen. Fortunately, temperatures level off at the end of the week into the weekend, although the weather likely remains dry. More on this in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Warm and breezy conditions continue Friday as a surface low tracks across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. Highs will be similar to Thursday's (upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s areawide). Lows Saturday morning end up 4-8 degrees cooler than Friday morning's due to the passage of a weak front Friday night (temperatures in the 40s for most locations). Highs Saturday also end up about 3-7 degrees lower than Friday's. Nevertheless, most of the region still tops out in the upper 60s and low 70s as ridging begins to move back overhead. Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal persist from Sunday through at least the middle part of next week. The forecast remains dry through the middle of next week as well.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR prevails through the period with breezy conditions returning Thursday afternoon. Expect gusts near 30 kts for most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 36 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 38 70 49 71 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 42 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 47 77 54 76 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 61 45 61 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 37 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 39 68 39 67 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 39 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 40 72 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 39 73 48 74 / 0 10 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.