textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 928 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week, with continued dry weather conditions.

- Temperatures start to cool slightly by the middle of next week, with low (generally 20-40%) rain chances returning to mainly eastern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Current observations show everywhere is above 80 degrees this afternoon with the only exception being the Guadalupe and Davis mountains. MAF still has not reached a record high today of 87 degrees but it is well within reach with a couple more hours of heating still to come. Tomorrow's record high of 89 could also be in jeopardy, at least to tie with the current forecast very close to that mark. 12Z NBM guidance came in a bit cooler for temps both today and tomorrow but that does not seem reasonable given the upper pattern and abundant sunshine so the previous forecast is nearly unchanged.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

An upper level ridge over northwestern Mexico gets dampened by a trough moving into the West Coast providing us with westerly flow through the middle of next week. Downsloping compression will keep highs well above normal and into the 80s through at least Tuesday. At that time, the upper trough in the western United States will reach the Central Great Plains bringing a very weak cold front bringing slightly cooler temperatures that fail to even reach average.

The trough also brings some rain chances to the Permian Basin beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the end of the forecast, at least according to NBM ensemble guidance. However the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are not as optimistic with the rain due to southwesterly flow ahead of the trough pushing moisture off to the east before convective instability is achieved. Regardless, rainfall amounts would be spotty and significant rainfall isn't expected.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 928 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, with a high cloud or two.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 87 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 88 44 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 87 55 87 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 55 87 55 88 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 52 89 52 90 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.