textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- A medium (35% to 45%) chance of isolated to scattered storms over the SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin this evening through early tonight, with damaging winds, flash flooding, and hail possible in strongest storms.

- A medium (35% to 45%) chance of scatted storms over the SE NM plains into northern and central Permian Basin tomorrow afternoon/evening, with damaging winds, flash flooding, and hail again possible in strongest storms.

- Cooling trend through late week, then renewed warming trend this weekend through early next week as shower/storm chances again decrease.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Mid to upper ridging develops farther west of the area beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. This places the area within the eastern "ring of fire" and northerly flow aloft, with disturbances aloft assisting in moisture convergence and lift overlying easterly near surface flow assisting formation of afternoon/evening storms. Core of ridging and largest magnitude of sinking relocating farther west will mean highs a few degrees cooler than the past several days, although temperatures will remain very warm to hot. This means highs back below 105F for much of the area and instead more within the 95F-105F range, except for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend where highs are still forecast to rise into the 105F-110F range. Low to medium (35% to 45%) PoPs with isolated to scattered storms are apparent on high- res CAMs this evening through early tonight over the SE NM plains into the northwest Permian Basin. SPC has outlined the SE NM and northern into central Permian Basin in a MRGL risk for today, with damaging winds the main threat. With PWATs up to at least 1.25", DCAPE at least 1000 J/kg, and shear less than 25 knots, weakly organized pulse and outflow storms are possible, with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, localized flash flooding, and hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer and inverted-V soundings in models support damaging wind risk, although not all places will see storms. Lows fall into the 65F-75F range, 60F-65F range northern and central Lea County into northwest Permian Basin and Marfa Plateau as storms diminish. Then, high-res CAMs suggest a low (20% to 30%) risk of isolated storms remaining over parts of the Permian Basin through early Thursday morning.

Highs Thursday continue the cooling trend, with most places seeing highs in the 90F-100F range, and 100F-105F reading limited to along the Rio Grande, with only the Big Bend again being the main spot to rise to 110F. PoPs increase to 25% to 35% by afternoon, then 35% to 45% for the SE NM plains into western and central Permian Basin. Higher PWAT up to at least 1.50", shear above 25 knots, and DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for another round of strong to severe storms with damaging winds, flash flooding, and hail possible. High-res CAMS indicate highest coverage of scattered storms northeast of the Pecos River over the SE NM plains into the northern and central Permian Basin, with storms then diminishing as they move south of the Pecos River with loss of daytime heating by late tomorrow night/early morning. Lows will again drop to similar levels as tonight, but cooler temperatures will persist before another warming trend. More details can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Shower/storms chances northeast of the Pecos River diminish, but remain present from heating of elevated terrain over the Marfa Plateau, with grids indicating low to medium (25% to 35%) PoPs Friday afternoon/evening. PWAT closer to 1.00", very weak easterly flow, and DCAPE below 1000 J/kg suggest most storms will be sub- severe, with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning the main risks. However, more details in coverage and potential limits to severity will be become apparent as we get closer to the end of the week. Highs rise into the 90F-95F range, 85F-90F higher elevations, and close to the triple digits along the Rio Grande as lows remain similar to past nights. Then, shower/storm chances diminish farther this weekend through early next week as mid to upper ridging again develops closer over the area. This may allow highs to again rise above the triple digits for the usual warmer spots north of the Rio Grande basin such as along the Pecos River valley and northeast Permian Basin. This far out, all we can say for now is that high temperatures will remain very warm with no major cooling trend in sight as we close the month of August and head into September.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to mostly prevail through the period at all terminals. Isolated to scattered storms are in store during the evening and overnight hours across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas. TS/-TSRA PROB30s were implemented at most terminals, though low confidence (< 30%) exists for FST and PEQ sites. An outflow boundary is expected to produce breezy to strong northerly winds. Brief MVFR to IFR VIS may occur with any blowing dust or heavy rainfall along this boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 98 72 98 / 30 10 20 0 Carlsbad 72 99 72 98 / 20 0 20 0 Dryden 75 101 74 99 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 73 98 72 97 / 10 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 90 68 89 / 10 30 10 10 Hobbs 69 96 69 95 / 40 20 30 0 Marfa 63 93 62 91 / 0 30 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 72 96 / 40 20 20 0 Odessa 74 96 73 96 / 40 20 20 0 Wink 73 98 73 98 / 20 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.