textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 412 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Low (20-30%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon over portions of the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated (15-20%) storms will be possible over the Big Bend again on Wednesday.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An upper-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence is keeping skies mostly sunny with dry conditions over the majority of our forecast area this afternoon. The exception could be down in Terrell County and portions of the Big Bend later this afternoon where a weak shortwave impulse rounding the southeastern periphery of the ridge could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. We will maintain 10-20% POPs over this portion of our CWA through the late afternoon hours. The upper ridge will otherwise remain the dominant feature across our region through Wednesday night. Isolated showers/storms may develop over the southern Big Bend again Wednesday afternoon, but dry weather conditions are otherwise forecast to remain prevalent. Lows tonight and Wednesday night are mostly expected to range in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday afternoon should reach into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees for most locations, except around 90 degrees over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Very warm and dry conditions continue to be expected through the end of the work week owing to an upper-level ridge of high pressure over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Afternoon highs are forecast to range from the mid 90s to lower triple digits Thursday and Friday. Some spots along the Rio Grande look to see readings between 105 and 110 degrees on these days. It is worth stressing the increased risk of heat-related illness if you must be outside for an extended period of time under these conditions. To protect yourself from the heat, be sure to drink plenty of water/electrolyte beverages, take frequent breaks under shade or inside a building with air conditioning, and wear light-weight/light-colored clothing. Aside from the heat, surface troughing, southeasterly upslope flow, and disturbances aloft yield a low (10-30%) chance of isolated showers/storms over portions of the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau region and Guadalupe Mountains both days. Additional convection may develop across portions of southeast New Mexico Friday evening as a surface lee cyclone passes to our north.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge of high pressure shifts towards the Central Rockies this weekend, allowing for high temperatures to cool a few degrees by Saturday. Shortwave impulses embedded within the periphery of the ridge provides upper-level moisture and forcing for ascent, increasing storm chances across much of the area on Sunday. At this time, the best chances currently look to reside in and around the Davis Mountains. Increased cloud cover and persistent southeasterly upslope flow yield cooler temperatures, with highs generally in the low-to-mid 90s Sunday and Monday. Greening

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 412 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Wednesday morning everywhere except KCNM, w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 70 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 95 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 68 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 71 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 70 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.