textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Near to record-breaking high temperatures today and Sunday.

- A cold front intrudes upon the region Sunday night/Monday morning, resulting in a brief respite from the heat Monday, before temperatures recover for the rest of the week.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The heat continues! WV imagery this morning shows a dominating upper ridge centered over southeast Arizona, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northeast flow aloft. At the surface, return flow continues, and will linger through the short term. As such, unseasonably warm temperatures will persist. Yesterday, Midland International Air & Space Port set a new record of 96 F, beating the old record of 94 F set in 2017. The next couple of days look like low-hanging fruit as well, as highs today and Sunday will plateau almost 25 F above climatology, making it feel more like late June than late March. Critical fire wx will be possible over most of the area Sunday, partly because of the heat. Tonight, mostly clear skies will promote efficient radiational cooling. However, this will be largely negated by a 40 kt LLJ set to develop, keeping mixing in play and overnight minimums averaging around 15 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Sunday night, an upper disturbance traversing the upper CONUS will send a cold front into the region, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF ~ 05Z Monday, a couple of hours faster than 24 hours ago. Models suggest a few hours of high gap winds through KGDP, but this time of year, models ease up on winds as the event approaches. Since this is 4th period, we'll forgo a watch attm. This front will knock upwards of 15 F off temperatures Monday afternoon, making Monday the coolest day this forecast. Even so, highs will still come in ~ 7-9 F above normal.

Fortunately, this cold front will be ephemeral, as temperatures rebound quickly Tuesday as the upper ridge builds eastward, w/the LREF centering it over the Texas Gulf coast by Friday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, highs should average 20-25 F above normal, similar to what's expected this afternoon. A secondary cold front is due to intrude upon the area late Thursday night, knocking around 5 F off highs Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern offers little in the way of moisture return, and the grids remain dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-level ridging. Surface winds will be light/variable, but generally out of the south.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Today, widespread critical minimum relative humidity is expected across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. This will combine with increasing ERCs and and drying fuels to result in elevated fire weather conditions across Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.

Sunday, under record-breaking heat, minimum relative humidity will drop to critical levels everywhere, and in the low single digits in some locations, resulting in widespread RFTI of 4. Although pre- frontal 20-ft winds are forecast to be rather tepid, ERCs will be 90th percentile or above, especially north. This will coincide will critically to extremely dry fuels to promote an environment of easy fire starts. A cold front will move in after 00Z, and this will exacerbate any ongoing fire starts. For these reasons, we'll issue a fairly broad watch for Sunday, and let the day shift whittle it down to a warning once 20-ft wind fields are better-defined. Attm, the area of most concern will be everything east of the Pecos.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 61 99 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 97 55 99 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 98 56 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 65 100 56 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 88 61 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 96 54 98 49 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 90 47 91 46 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 60 99 54 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 96 60 98 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 97 54 99 54 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Crane-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry- Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.