textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 - An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday.

- A few storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with damaging winds over our western areas late this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region on Tuesday with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding tonight into Tuesday. - Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough continuing to deepen over the Desert Southwest while an upper-level low was located over the vicinity of east and southeast Texas. A remnant MCV was also moving across portions of west-central Texas to the south of Abilene early this afternoon, with scattered storms developing along this feature near San Angelo to our east. A warm and relatively moist easterly to southeasterly surface flow is in place over west Texas and southeast New Mexico with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees over our western zones and in the mid 50s to mid 60s over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to to develop over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in the upslope flow regime as of 130 PM CDT. Isolated to scattered convection will generally remain confined to areas west of the Pecos River and into portions of the southeast New Mexico plains this afternoon. Convective coverage should increase over western portions of our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening along and ahead of a shortwave impulse lifting into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico ahead of the upper-level trough over the vicinity of Arizona and the Four Corners. Will maintain scattered to numerous (40-80%) coverage of showers/storms over locations especially along and west of a Tatum-Pecos-Alpine/ Marathon-Big Bend NP line this evening, while generally dry conditions persist over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Can't entirely rule out an isolated storm over the far eastern Basin this evening on the western fringe of the MCV to our east, but confidence remained low enough to keep mention out of the forecast for now. Steep mid-level lapse rates, plentiful DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/KG, and modest surface-based instability will support a marginal severe threat with storms over western portions of our forecast area this evening with potential for strong gusts in excess of 50-60 mph with the strongest storms that develop. Precipitable water values also increase above 1" over our western areas this evening, so there will also be potential for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to spotty flooding/flash flooding of low-lying areas.

An increasingly diffluent flow pattern will spread across the rest of west Texas and southeast New Mexico early Tuesday morning and into the day Tuesday. Deep-layer moisture and ascent will bring scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos region by early Tuesday morning with a good chance of showers/thunderstorms continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values between 1-1.4 inches will support a heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding threat through the day Tuesday, especially where repeated rounds of storms develop. Confidence in larger scale flash flooding was low enough to preclude a Flood Watch issuance with this package, but will continue to monitor given CAM trends of showing pockets of rainfall amounts of 1-2" (perhaps very locally higher) over portions of far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin through Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities of >1" of rain have increased to about 40-50% east of a Tatum-Midland/Odessa-Big Lake line. In addition to the heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential, we will also be monitoring for severe storms from the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Tuesday. Forecast soundings and CAMs indicate a zone of moderate instability with MUCAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG developing over this portion of our CWA late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. This instability along with 0-6 km shear up to around 40 knots will support storm organization and associated large hail and damaging wind threat over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday. A low level jet will strengthen over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos by early Tuesday evening, which could support a low-end tornado threat with supercells that might continue into the evening hours. Storm chances should gradually decrease from west to east Tuesday evening/night as the shortwave trough lifts over the region. Highs Tuesday afternoon should trend below normal with the increased cloud cover and rain chances. Temperatures should range from the 70s to lower 80s over most of the region, except along the Big Bend/Rio Grande where temperatures will be in the 90s and perhaps over 100 degrees in spots.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Warmer and drier conditions return on Wednesday as weak upper-level ridging moves over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. However, shortwave impulses embedded in the flow aloft provides isolated (10- 30%) storm chances across portions of the Davis Mountains/surrounding areas and the far eastern Permian Basin. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to top out into the 80s for most, with 90s farther south along the Rio Grande. The aforementioned upper-level ridge builds over the region on Thursday and Friday, yielding warmer temperatures and highs in the 90s become commonplace. Though guidance is indicating that a dryline will set up somewhere along the New Mexico/Texas border and extend south into the Big Bend on Friday. This coupled with increased moisture and instability ahead of the dryline yield low (10-30%) chances of showers and storms across southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau, and western portions of the Permian Basin. By the weekend, long-range ensemble guidance shows southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft while the surface dryline remains positioned in our forecast area. This means that additional chances (generally 20-50%) of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend.

Greening

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions will generally remain prevalent through the forecast period. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will develop across areas west of the Pecos River this evening and may impact KCNM and KHOB after 03Z, and potentially near KPEQ, KINK, and KFST overnight. Timing of SHRA/TSRA impacting the Permian Basin, including around KMAF may be after 12Z, so confidence for including PROB30 for thunder was kept confined to our western terminals with this issuance. Easterly to southeasterly winds will be gusty this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 64 78 60 83 / 20 80 40 10 Carlsbad 61 79 57 87 / 80 60 10 0 Dryden 68 88 65 88 / 20 60 20 0 Fort Stockton 64 82 60 87 / 50 60 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 59 74 56 80 / 70 50 10 0 Hobbs 59 74 55 84 / 70 70 20 10 Marfa 52 81 50 85 / 60 40 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 64 77 60 83 / 30 80 20 0 Odessa 64 77 60 83 / 30 80 20 0 Wink 63 79 59 86 / 60 70 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.