textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Isolated showers/storms redevelop over parts of the forecast area 12 pm through 5 pm.

- Heavy showers/storms over the northeast Permian Basin (25%-35% chance) from 5 pm through 1 am. No severe weather or widespread flooding expected.

- Strong westerly winds this afternoon through tonight will pose hazardous travel conditions for the Guadalupes/Delawares.

- Cooler than average highs early next week more typical of late December than November, with a gradual warming trend into late week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Behind the first disturbance that brought moderate to heavy rainfall with widespread 0.25" to 0.50" to the area last night, another disturbance today will bring another chance (25%-45%) of showers/storms and strong (35 mph sustained with higher gusts up to 45-50 mph) west/southwest winds for the Guadalupes/Delawares by this afternoon. In the wake of the departing disturbance, shower/storm activity decreases for northern Permian Basin before increasing again by 12 pm-5 pm. Best lift, moisture, instability, and dynamics will be off to the northeast over the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX/southwest OK, so we are not expecting much if any severe weather today. However, heavier showers/storms across the northeast Permian Basin later this evening (5 pm through 1 am) could again pose a risk for ponding of water in low- lying areas, with a low (around 30%) chance that another 0.25"-0.50" rainfall occurs. Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, ending up in the 60s to lower 70s F, 50s F higher elevations southwest of the Pecos River, and lower to mid 60s F northeast of the Pecos River - with exception of upper 50s F where cloud cover lingers and limits daytime heating. Strong winds persist on back-end of the upper low Saturday night as it develops into central TX, continuing hazardous travel impacts for Guadalupe Pass. However, duration of strong winds is not anticipated to warrant issuance of any high wind products. The gusty westerly winds Saturday night will limit overnight cooling and keep lows in the 40s F higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, and in the 50s F for rest of the lowlands.

On Sunday, the upper low develops southeast of the area and winds shift to more northwesterly in response. Additionally, a near surface Pacific cold front develops in from the northwest during the afternoon. This will keep winds gusty 25 to 35 mph and following a diurnal cycle of intensification in the afternoon, Gusty winds 25 to 35 mph will also and follow a diurnal cycle of intensification during the afternoon/evening. However, as on Saturday, duration and magnitude of strong winds is not expected to warrant issuance of any high wind products. Cooler air from the north/northwest will keep highs below 70 F north of the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County, and below 60 F for higher elevations into the northern SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin. While rain chances will decrease, one last disturbance rounding the backside of the upper low will maintain a low (15%-25%) chance of showers across the northeast Permian Basin. As the upper low continues to develop farther southeast and the tail end of the disturbance is fully to the east of the area, winds shift to more north/northeast and begin to decrease, aiding overnight cooling and allowing lows Sunday night to fall below 50F north of the Rio Grande basin and into the 30s F for higher elevations and northern Lea County. It is not out of question that frost could occur for the peaks of the Davis Mountains. Even cooler weather is in store early week prior to a gradual warming trend. More details can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Temperatures will keep decreasing early next week even as calmer weather returns. Winds will continue to shift to northeasterly, maintaining sustained CAA from Arctic air unleashed by troughing over the southeast US during early weekend. The forecast remains on track for highs to fail to rise above 60F north of the Rio Grande basin/northeast of the Marfa Plateau into Terrell County for Monday, with mid to upper 60s F confined to the Presidio Valley and Big Bend, while highs remain in the upper 40s F for higher elevations and northernmost parts of the northeast Permian Basin. Lows Monday night will not change much from Sunday night, and highs Tuesday will remain in the 50s F northeast of the Pecos River, and still below 70F southwest of the Pecos River for everywhere but the along the Rio Grande from the Presidio Valley to the Big Bend. As winds shift back to southeasterly, decreasing drainage flows will allow lows to rise back into the 50s F for eastern lowlands, while remaining in the 40s F elsewhere north of the Rio Grande basin.

Mid-level ridging will build back through the middle of next week, but longwave troughing over the Pacific SW into Desert SW will prevent rapid amplification of ridging, resulting in only a gradual warming trend. Highs rise back into the 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, and 70s F for usual warmer basins southwest of the Pecos River Wednesday, then upper 60s F to lower 70s F, mid to upper 70s F along portions of the Rio Grande, and upper 50s F higher elevations Thursday. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will fail to fall below the 50s F for much of the lowlands and below the 40s F for western higher terrain into northern SE NM plains, with progressive chipping away of 40s F lows from southeast to northeast on Thursday night compared to Wednesday night. Highs peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s F, lower 80s F Presidio Valley into Big Bend Friday ahead another Pacific front, with lows Friday night similar to Thursday night. The Pacific front knocks temperatures back down by next Saturday, although this far out, any rain chances, more specific timing of the front, and magnitude of temperature change are still uncertain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Sat imagery/observations show skies slowly scattering out, and all terminals should improve to VFR w/in an hour or two of issuance time. Surface winds should veer to west overnight, before a cold front moves in Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 62 45 52 / 50 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 63 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 56 74 50 58 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 52 67 46 56 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 43 57 42 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 46 60 42 53 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 44 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 51 64 46 53 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 50 64 45 53 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 49 66 45 55 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.