textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Patchy fog possible early this morning mainly across portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin due to recent rains and near-surface saturation.

- Drier weather expected today and Wednesday before additional chances of rain return by Thursday and Friday, especially across the eastern half of the area.

- Highs remain near or above normal through much of the week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Nighttime Microphysics show low clouds across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, extending south towards central portions of Pecos and Brewster Counties this morning. Meanwhile, surface observations show relatively light south/southeasterly winds with dewpoint depressions generally less than three degrees. Given the recent rains, light winds, and small dewpoint depressions, we will be looking out for some patchy fog across portions of the aforementioned areas early this morning.

Aside from isolated convection over/near the Davis Mountains this afternoon due to upslope flow, warmer and drier conditions are expected today and tomorrow as heights increase. This yields slightly above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for most. Tonight's lows tick up 1-3 degrees from last night's.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The pattern becomes active once again during the latter half of the work week. By Thursday morning, an upper-level shortwave approaches west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase Thursday morning across southernmost portions of the area, spreading northward throughout the day and into Friday as the system moves across the region. Chances during this timeframe still generally range between 40-70% across the area (up to 80%). Whereas this past weekend the highest chances tended to be across the western half of the area, by Thursday and Friday the best chances will be across the eastern half (ie from the Big Bend northward into the Lower Trans-Pecos and much of the Permian Basin of west Texas). PWATs will once again be between the 90-99th percentile (pushing daily maximum values), so flash flooding is going to be our main concern, especially for easternmost counties where confidence in widespread showers and thunderstorms remains highest.

By Friday evening/overnight, most of this activity pushes beyond our area. Guidance continues to show most locations staying dry for Halloween. Another approaching system may bring additional rain chances to portions of the area by the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, but chances are low overall at this time (10-30%). Both the ECMWF and the GFS (and their ensembles) attempt to bring yet another system towards the area by the early-to-middle part of next week. This system looks like it would be drier, but it could push a front our direction and yield cooler temperatures. Details as to just how much cooler it could get remain uncertain this far in advance, so stay tuned for updates! Otherwise, highs through the weekend mainly top out in the mid-to-upper 70s, except on Friday (highs stay in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s thanks to rain chances and cloud cover).

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGs are beginning to clear, giving way to VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Winds will be south to southeasterly. Models suggest MVFR and IFR conditions returning over most sites early tomorrow morning; however, timing and duration remains uncertain at this time. Stay tuned for updates!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 81 61 77 / 10 0 0 70 Carlsbad 56 82 57 77 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 61 80 62 73 / 0 0 10 90 Fort Stockton 59 83 61 77 / 0 0 0 70 Guadalupe Pass 55 73 57 70 / 0 0 0 40 Hobbs 56 78 57 74 / 0 0 0 40 Marfa 52 76 54 70 / 0 0 10 80 Midland Intl Airport 60 80 61 75 / 0 0 0 70 Odessa 61 80 61 75 / 0 0 0 60 Wink 59 83 61 77 / 0 0 0 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.