textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Isolated storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and higher terrain. A storm or two may become strong capable of producing damaging winds. - Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows lingering showers and thunderstorms across the southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. These storms are expected to be sub-severe with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main hazards. Additional storms are forecast this afternoon and early evening across the previously mentioned areas. This is driven by subtle shortwave troughing over the Ozarks, combined with remnant boundaries from earlier convection across the TX Panhandle and Central Plains. High resolution forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles and abundant DCAPE values ( > 1200 J/kg) indicating the potential threat of damaging winds with the strongest storms. Luckily, coverage of storms will be isolated with the greatest chance across the southern Permian, Lower Trans Pecos, and high terrain. High temperatures are anticipated to range from the 90s with a few spots hitting the triple digits.

Tonight, lows are expected to be in the 60s to mid 70s regionwide. The aforementioned upper-level system shifts east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, ushering in more subsidence from the upper-level ridge. As a result, high temperatures increase 2-3 degrees from the previous day. Additionally, there is a very low (~10%) chance of isolated storms across the southeast Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday afternoon. The warmer and drier weather trend looks to continue in the long-term. See the discussion below for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The forecast remains on track for a very warm and mostly dry week ahead, before rain chances and cooler temperatures return for the weekend. Mid to upper ridging over the central CONUS will continue to provide large scale sinking motion that limits shower/storm chances to mainly the afternoon/evening hours, in the 10% to 30% range and more dependent on mesoscale-terrain interactions at the surface and aloft and heating of elevated terrain. With low RH through the lower troposphere and lee troughing remaining largely west of the forecast area, forecast rainfall amounts are still expected to below a few tenths of an inch in most places where any rain does fall, limiting flash flooding concerns. Highs from the beginning of the week through middle of the week rise into the 95F-100F, 100F-105F ranges along Pecos River and Presidio Valley, 90F-95F higher elevations, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend. A diurnal spread of 20F-25F resulting in lows 70F-75F, 75F-80F southern and eastern regions, and 65F-70F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos prevails amidst moderate overnight cooling from 50s to 60s F dew point temperatures overnight. Mid to upper ridging notably amplifies by the middle of the week and a slight warming trend ensues, with highs rising into the 100F-105F range over a larger portion of the northern Permian Basin and along the Pecos River, and highs in the Big Bend into the 110F-115F range. However, overnight lows will remain around the same as earlier in the week, and de-amplification of ridging by the weekend will bring increased shower/storm chances (25% to 40%), with highs down to the 90F-95F by the end of the weekend and triple digits receding to right along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Gusty easterly to northeasterly winds continue at most terminals this evening. Visibilities are expected to climb to VFR as the outflow boundary progresses further south. A few VCSH and VCTS will still linger across INK, MAF, FST, and PEQ with highest confidence affecting INK and MAF sites. Winds are expected to decrease and shift southeasterly to southerly at all sites near 12Z this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 97 73 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 99 73 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 99 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 72 98 74 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 69 91 69 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 95 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 91 61 92 63 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 73 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 96 73 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 98 73 99 75 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.