textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Strong westerly winds will develop again today over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains. Patchy to areas of blowing dust will also impact portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon.

- Gusty westerly winds, very low relative humidity, and dry fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas again this afternoon.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist today before a cold front brings near to below normal temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the next upper trough over Nevada, heading for the Four Corners, with a secondary trough over WA/OR/ID. The trough will pass through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, providing another day of earth, wind, and fire as a Pac front pushes through late. According to the NAM, the mountain wave signature will continue until the trough clears the area late Friday afternoon, with 700 mb height gradients tightening up to near 85m/200nm by 21Z. As such, we've issued wind products to cover this, only over a smaller area than yesterday. Highs this afternoon are on tap to top out ~ 8-10 F above normal, around 2 F warmer than yesterday. This will combine with continued windy conditions to result in yet another day of critical fire weather. See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details.

Tonight, cooler air pushes into the area behind the Pac front, and a cold front even attempts to backdoor the northeast before the full force of the Pac front stops it in the Permian Basin. This will lower overnight minimums by around 5 F from this morning's lows, yet still coming in ~ 3-5 F above climatology.

A stronger, secondary cold front arrives Saturday, taking highs down over 10 F from this afternoon highs, where they'll end up 3-5 F below normal on average. Despite this, the bright side will be a respite from the increased winds and critical fire weather of the past week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Surface high pressure will settle over west Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning before the surface ridge shifts to the east of our area on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures remain below normal with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s Saturday night and highs on Sunday mostly ranging in the upper 50s to lower 60s, except for readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the Rio Grande. Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to prevail across the region through much of the upcoming week. Temperatures will modify a few degrees Sunday night and Monday, but are still forecast to remain a little below average across the region.

Surface lee troughing will take shape across eastern New Mexico and west Texas by Tuesday before surface low pressure and an associated pre-frontal trough shifts southward into our forecast area on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend much warmer Tuesday and especially on Wednesday as low level thermal ridging enhances along the surface trough axis. Highs on Tuesday will rebound back into the mid 70s to lower 80s over most of the region. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching into the 80s over much of the area, except for readings in the mid to upper 70s in the mountains and as high as the lower 90s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures on Wednesday will be close to record values (the February 25 record for Midland is 86 set in 2009). Highs remain well above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most of the area (except 70s mountains and lower 90s along the Rio Grande) through the latter part of the week. Early morning lows will also be mild for late February with readings in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light winds early this morning will become westerly and increase to 15-25 knots with gusts over 30 knots late this morning through early this evening over most terminals. Winds will turn northwesterly and decrease in speed after 01-02Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Despite moderate to excellent recovery this morning, increased southwest-to-west 20-ft winds and continued unseasonably warm temperatures will result in critical minimum relative humidity over most of the FWA. These parameters will combine to yield RFTIs of 4-7 over Southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas from the northern Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos/Van Horn Corridor and south to the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau. Given forecast ERCs of up to the 75th percentile in these areas, another day of critical fire wx conditions is likely, and we've issued a RFW to cover this. Critical fire wx conditions will end w/the arrival of cooler temperatures this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 39 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 35 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 85 49 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 80 43 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 36 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 69 35 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 71 32 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 40 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 41 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 38 63 31 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for Gaines-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.