textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Low to medium (25% to 35%) chance of isolated showers/storms late this afternoon through tonight over the SE NM plains into Permian Basin. Damaging winds, frequent lightning, patchy blowing dust, flash flooding, and small hail are all possible where storms occur.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week with drier weather, then slight cooling trend next week with increased shower/storm chances.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Very warm to hot temperatures - but not as warm as earlier this week - expected through end of the week as mid to upper ridging continues to center closer over the Four Corners. This means highs 95F-100F, 85F-90F higher elevations, and 100F-100F along the Pecos River and Rio Grande, 105F-110F for the Big Bend are forecast. Placement of core of ridging northwest of the forecast area means we are again within the eastern "ring of fire". This entails persistent northerly/northeasterly flow aloft, allowing for disturbances focusing moisture and lift aloft for deep convection. Showers/storms continue drifting south over the southeast Permian Basin and eastern Stockton Plateau early this afternoon. Interaction of disturbances aloft with both near surface residual outflow from yesterday's storms and humid, upslope flow advecting in higher PWATs at least 1.30" favor additional isolated to scattered storms farther north. High-res CAMs indicate a medium (25% to 35%) chance of showers/storms late this afternoon through early tonight northeast of the Pecos River, especially central/southeast Permian Basin. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg in model forecast soundings points to a risk of damaging winds, frequent lightning, and patchy blowing dust in strongest storms. However, SPC does not have us in a MRGL risk, and coverage in high-res CAMs is less than yesterday, which may mean less organization of storms for as much of a wind risk as yesterday. Heavy rainfall with local flash flooding is possible in heavier or more prolonged storms given PWATs. Small hail may also occur given drier mid-levels. Isolated storms with brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and small hail may also occur over western higher terrain later today following daytime heating of elevated terrain. General storm motion from northeast to southwest is expected. Not everyone will see storms, and with loss of daytime heating, any activity is again expected to diminish with time after sunset. Lows again fall into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F range for northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.

Tomorrow, a backdoor cold front clears the area northeast of the Pecos River, aided by continued west/northwest migration of core of ridging placing the forecast area under more northeasterly flow aloft. This pushes low to medium (30% to 40%) shower/storm chances farther southwest to the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains, Presidio Valley, and Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande basin. With PWATs close to 1.20" on model forecast soundings, but DCAPE still close to 1000 J/kg amidst very dry mid-levels and inverted-V profiles in the lower troposphere along with minimal shear, isolated to scattered pulse storms anchored to higher terrain look to be possible tomorrow southwest of the Pecos River. While not everyone will see storms and more details will become apparent closer to the end of the week, main risks with any storms at the moment appear to be damaging winds, brief heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and small hail. With core of ridging farther away from the area but lower storm chances northeast of the Pecos River, similar high and low temperatures to today are forecast, slightly warmer northeast of the Pecos River and cooler southwest of the Pecos River. Drier and continued warm weather with a renewed warming trend then look to be the case this weekend through early next week. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Core of mid to upper ridging will be quick to redevelop east over SE NM into W TX early this weekend, and then farther east over central TX late weekend through early next week. This will spell a warming trend in high temperatures and drier weather with low (less than 10%) shower/storm chances confined to western higher terrain. While temperatures will not be as warm as earlier this week, 100F-105F temperatures will expand near the Pecos River valley, over the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau, and northeast Permian Basin, with higher elevations again rising back into the 90F-95F range. Make sure to take proper heat safety precautions (limit time spent outdoors during the hottest part of the day, take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and do not leave people or pets unattended in locked vehicles). Lows will not warm as much even with more southerly near surface winds and LLJ repositioning farther east over the Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin. Early to middle of next week, ridging develops northeast of the area, placing us in the southern "ring of fire" with shower/storm chances increasing once again and temperatures cooling very slightly. However, this far out specifics remain murky, and no major cooling trend is in sight as we head into the month of September.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Northeasterly winds will shift easterly to southeasterly later in the afternoon. Erratic, breezy winds are anticipated with any passing remnant outflow boundary during the afternoon and evening timeframe at all terminals. Isolated showers/storms are in store again this afternoon and early evening with the highest confidence at MAF where brief MVFR to IFR VIS and erratic winds may occur. Opted to not include FST, INK, HOB, and PEQ sites given very low confidence in thunderstorm development, though further amendments may be necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 72 99 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 98 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 74 100 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 97 72 98 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 90 69 92 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 68 96 70 98 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 62 91 61 91 / 10 30 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 73 99 74 100 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.