textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- A few isolated severe storms may occur Wednesday night, from the Western Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos. Large hail will be the main threat.

- There is a potential for flash flooding in heavier showers/storms across SE NM plains into Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe into Davis Mountains late Thursday afternoon through early Friday afternoon may create difficult driving conditions.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures for late week continuing into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Current satellite imagery depicts an upper-level low over the California Coast. This system will provide active weather tomorrow where many locations across the region are forecast to have rain and thunderstorms. However, the weather today is going to remain quiet with dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and high temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s for most. Tonight, the upper-level system moves slightly further to the east which is going to supply moisture aloft for high cloud cover to occur. The cloud cover keeps temperatures warmer than previous nights with many spots around the region reaching the low 50s to low 60s.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned system shifts more eastward. Broken to overcast cloud coverage regulates temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low-level moisture will also be prevalent as winds shift easterly to southeasterly, sending the dryline further westward. By the mid to late afternoon hours, high resolution guidance has isolated convection developing across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos to northeastern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings depict record PWATs (1.25"), deep layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates ( > 7 degC/km). These parameters point to a large hail and heavy rainfall threat with the strongest storms. Instability is going to be limited across the region due to cloud cover throughout the morning and afternoon which may inhibit storm development during this timeframe. By tomorrow night, the upper- level storm system advances east of Baja California providing sufficient lift for numerous showers and (nonsevere) thunderstorms to occur over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. More of these showers and storms are expected on Thursday. See the long-term for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An active weather pattern late this week into this weekend following unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather for the last several weeks will be followed by a less active pattern, more seasonable temperatures, but continued breezy to gusty winds at times as the descent into meteorological winter (December 1) continues. A significant upper storm system and accompanying surface features developing east from the Great Basin and Desert SW drive weather late this week into the weekend. High winds aloft and a tight pressure gradient over the Guadalupes and Delaware Mountains where a mountain wave signature is apparent on 700 mb height charts will result in strong winds Thursday afternoon through early Friday afternoon. NWP, NBM, and ensemble probabilities indicate a high probability of gusty winds at least 35 mph over Guadalupes, Delawares, and Davis Mountains. High wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast over these regions, but for now we have held off on issuing a High Wind Watch as winds have been trending down. The upper storm system will also aid in continued transport of moisture, creating a moderate to high probability (45% to 60%) of showers/storms Thursday morning despite coverage in CAMs remaining uncertain. Lea County, most of Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County have a moderate to high probability of 0.25" to 0.50" rainfall, with a high probability (50% to 70%) 0.50" to 0.75" for eastern Permian Basin and a moderate (35% to 55%) probability of higher amounts above that easternmost Permian Basin. While rain will be tapering off from southwest to northeast Thursday as the best lift and moisture departs to the northeast, we cannot rule out flash flooding in heavier showers/storms.

With CAA from strong west/northwest winds behind the Pacific cold front, Thursday's highs drop to the mid to upper 50s F higher elevations, mid 60s to mid 70s F. Following the initial frontal passage, drier air moves in by Thursday evening, resulting in dew point temperatures settling into the he upper 20s to lower 30s F Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into Presidio Valley and Big Bend, mid to upper 30s F northwest Permian Basin into western Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and southeast Brewster County, with lower to mid 40s F points east. This reduction in boundary layer moisture enhancing overnight cooling will not be as significant as we have seen earlier this autumn and will maintain a smaller diurnal temperature range of 20 to 25 F rather than 25 to 30 F. Thursday night lows across higher elevations into much of the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin settle into the 30s F with 40s F elsewhere. Friday into next week, highs remain in the mid to upper 50s F higher elevations, lower 60s F basins of Culberson County and Marfa Plateau, mid to upper 60s F, and lower to mid 70s F southern Rio Grande basins into southern Permian Basin, with lows in the mid 30s F higher elevations into much of SE NM plains and northwest Permian, and lower to mid 40s F elsewhere, although slowly warming through the weekend as subtle ridging in the mid to upper pattern builds. Another storm system developing from the Great Basin and Desert SW into western and central TX and an accompanying Pacific cold front providing lift, moisture, and instability will again lead to a renewed push of cooler air, gusty winds over higher elevations of the Guadalupes into surrounding foothills and plains, and possibly some rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions and light southwesterly to variable winds are expected to prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 59 74 59 71 / 10 30 70 90 Carlsbad 54 75 52 68 / 0 0 40 70 Dryden 61 79 61 79 / 10 30 60 70 Fort Stockton 57 76 62 77 / 10 20 40 60 Guadalupe Pass 52 64 48 58 / 0 10 30 70 Hobbs 52 74 53 68 / 10 10 50 80 Marfa 44 72 48 68 / 0 10 20 50 Midland Intl Airport 59 74 61 71 / 10 20 60 80 Odessa 59 74 61 71 / 10 20 50 80 Wink 56 75 58 71 / 10 10 40 70

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.