textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- A warming trend continues today, after which temperatures will decrease slightly Thursday, before increasing again through Sunday or Columbus Day. - There is a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon over the Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley. The weekend looks dry before a 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develops next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

WV imagery this morning shows a broad upper ridge spanning the western 2/3rds of the CONUS, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Embedded in this flow is a trough, now moving through the Four Corners. Before this feature arrives over the region, thicknesses will continue increasing, adding a couple of degrees to yesterday's temperatures. Today's highs will climb into the 80s most locations, averaging a little over 5 F above climatology. Grids remain dry, as convective temperatures are much higher than expected highs.

Tonight, although the LLJ will remain weak, high clouds will stream into the area w/the incoming trough, keeping overnight minimums in the 60s most locations, around 10 F above normal.

Thursday, the trough arrives, shaving perhaps a degree or so off of today's highs. Isolated afternoon convection is possible over the Marfa Plateau/Presidio Valley.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday, temperatures resume a gradual upward trajectory as the upper trough drifts off to the east. To the west, an upper trough off the west coast will dig south, pushing weak ridging into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures will increase through the weekend, w/latest model runs maxing out temperatures for this forecast Sunday or Columbus Day, when highs will be around 90 most locations, a good 10 F or so above normal. As the upper trough digs down the west coast and weak ridging moves east, southwest flow aloft will develop over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/the trough sending shortwaves our way beginning Monday afternoon or so. This will result in increasing chances of convection next week. Expect rain chances to really ramp up just beyond the extended forecast, when the west coast trough makes landfall and begins tilting negative.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, w/a few high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 86 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 65 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 88 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 78 59 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 83 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 81 56 79 54 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 63 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 86 63 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 89 63 87 61 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.