textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- An approaching upper level system will bring increasing rain chances this evening through late Saturday.

- High temperatures will trend cooler in the 50s and 60s next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a very dry and subsident airmass in place over west Texas and southeast New Mexico underneath mid-level ridging. Surface high pressure also extends across our region keeping early morning temperatures cool in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Clear skies, light winds, and RH near saturation could result in very patchy fog development over portions of the Permian Basin and Pecos River Valley early this morning. Ridging aloft will continue to build over our region today, before gradually shifting to our east this afternoon and evening as the next upper-level system moves into California and the Desert Southwest. Deep layer moisture and ascent will spread from west to east over our forecast area late this afternoon into this evening/overnight as the upper level trough pivots from Arizona into New Mexico and far west Texas. Rain chances will initially increase considerably west of the Pecos River between 6-10 PM CST this evening, then across the remainder of southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas (least coverage over the northeast Permian Basin) late this evening into the overnight hours. Precipitation will mostly be in the form of rain showers, though isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible given weak elevated instability. The upper-level trough passes across southeast New Mexico and west Texas on Saturday, with deeper moisture and ascent becoming favored over the northern and eastern Permian Basin, where rain chances remain highest into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts with this passing system do not look overly heavy, mostly up to between 0.1" to 0.5" over much of the area, except for very localized amounts above 0.5". Westerly winds may briefly increase up to 30-40 mph with gusts over 50 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday afternoon. Highs today are forecast to range in the upper 60s to mid 70s, before trending slightly cooler on Saturday. Lows tonight will range in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An upper-level low will move across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Saturday night before slowly lifting east into Oklahoma on Sunday. Rain showers may persist over the eastern Permian Basin late Saturday night before moisture and ascent exit to our east by Sunday morning. A cold front will push through our forecast area on Sunday behind the upper system. Northerly winds will increase behind the passage of the front Sunday evening. Temperatures also trend cooler Sunday and Sunday night behind this feature with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the region (except 70s over the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos) and lows mostly in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Our forecast area will remain located along the western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the eastern U.S. early next week. Low level southeasterly to southerly flow on top of a cool easterly surface flow may keep skies mostly cloudy to overcast with low cloud cover across much of our region Monday, along with a good signal that highs will stay well below normal in the 50s over most of the area. Another day of mostly cloudy to overcast skies and below normal temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s may continue into Tuesday. The surface ridge remains positioned over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. Low level southerly flow may keep low cloud cover in place over eastern portions of our forecast area, especially from the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures remain below normal, but may moderate into the lower to mid 60s over much of the region by Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to remain prevalent through the forecast period. A brief period of VIS reductions to MVFR thresholds remains possible at area TAF sites through around 15Z. A band of SHRA with isolated TSRA will move across area terminals between 04-10Z Saturday. CIGs and VIS reductions to MVFR will be possible in the heavier SHRA. MVFR CIGs may become prevalent around KHOB overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 52 67 53 / 0 50 50 30 Carlsbad 70 51 67 49 / 10 80 10 0 Dryden 71 54 70 55 / 0 70 10 0 Fort Stockton 75 53 72 53 / 0 80 20 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 48 57 45 / 30 90 0 0 Hobbs 70 50 66 46 / 0 80 20 0 Marfa 69 46 64 45 / 10 80 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 53 67 53 / 0 70 20 10 Odessa 71 53 67 52 / 0 70 20 10 Wink 73 53 69 51 / 0 80 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.