textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- A cold front brings cooler temperatures and breezy winds today and Wednesday.

- South/southwest winds returning by late week with less dry air, above freezing low temperatures, and increased clouds, persisting into next week.

- Increased chances of rain showers beginning late Sunday and continuing into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1246 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows a shortwave trough from the Central Plains extending to the Desert Southwest. Observations also show a cold front beginning to enter the northern portions of the forecast area. The cold front is expected to sweep through the entire region by early this morning bringing slightly cooler temperatures and breezy north/northeasterly winds through this afternoon. Winds are anticipated to be 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph across the plains, while stronger winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Guidance continues to have winds below warning criteria for the higher terrain due to weaker flow aloft limiting any hazardous winds from occurring. Cooler air behind the front settles high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for much of the region, besides areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley being in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, broad surface high pressure from the Rockies builds further into the area. Lows are forecast to span in the upper 20s to 30s regionwide.

Wednesday, an upper-level jet maxima will be positioned over west Texas thanks to tight height gradients being in between the entrance region of an upper-level ridge and near the axis of a passing shortwave trough. As a result, breezy northerly winds continue, dropping highs in the 50s to low 60s for most locations. By Wednesday night, the aforementioned surface high pushes further into west Texas. Clear skies and light winds will create ideal conditions for radiational cooling, dropping lows in the mid 20s and mid 30s. Surface winds veer back south/southwesterly with upper-level ridging building in from the west by early Thursday morning, signaling the return of warmer temperatures. See the long-term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1246 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

The story of the rest of the week into next week tells a tale of modified Pacific flow developing as mid to upper ridging over the Great Basin persists while troughing extending to the southwest from the eastern US and Canada flattens over the Southern Great Plains. This allows for weak to mid upper ridging to build in for the first time in a few weeks, and a return to prevailing south/southwest winds tapping into flow off the Pacific and northern MX plateau advecting in warmer air throughout each day and night. Thursday highs still remain in the 50s and 60s F as CAA lingers in the wake of Wednesday's front. However, winds are expected to shift to south/southwest by this time as the mid to upper air pattern flattens out over the area. Thursday still sees lows falling into the mid 30s F, near freezing windward foothills of Marfa Plateau, Pecos River valley region in Eddy County, and northern Lea County, with 40s F Rio Grande basin. Friday sees the pattern snap back into a more zonal configuration and highs rise accordingly into the mid to upper 60s F Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains, 70s F Rio Grande basin into Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans Pecos, and eastern Permian Basin, and upper 50s to lower 60s F Guadalupes. Winds remain calm and southerly but lows by Friday night only fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s F range. Dew point temperatures slowly climb from the mid 20s F this week to mid 30s F for most of the area next week, but the bigger change will be lows again returning to being consistently above freezing by the weekend. Saturday sees even warmer temperatures, mid to upper 70s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations into SE NM plains, and upper 70s to lower 80s F near the Big Bend, as lows fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s F north of the Rio Grande basin and lower to mid 50s F over Rio Grande basin.

There is one feature about the ridging that develops over the area later this week into the weekend and it is the omega block shape to the ridge. This allows for troughing and perhaps a closed or cut-off mid to upper weather system to meander from the Pacific SW/Baja CA into the Desert SW/northern MX plateau. Moisture from the system spreads increasing mid to high clouds over the area, decreasing highs by Sunday back into the mid to upper 60s F higher elevations and 70s F, 80s F Big Bend. With the increase in moisture and stable conditions accompanying surface high pressure giving way to a Pacific front to the west of the area with near surface overrunning increasing from west to east, precipitation chances >15% appear and increase from west to east through the day, increasing to low to moderate (25% to 35%) Sunday night as lows stay in the mid 30s to mid 40s F range despite the mid to upper clouds. Monday sees cooler temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 60s F, upper 50s F higher elevations, and 70s F Pecos River valley into Terrell County and Rio Grande basin as moderate (30% to 40%) precipitation chances linger ahead of the weather system slowly propagating northeast and gradually flattening into the more steady southwest mid to upper flow. This along with re-location of the best forcing for ascent and moisture east of the area helps to decrease precipitation chances by Tuesday. Lows remain in the upper 30s to 40s F range both nights, additional evidence of a prolonged recovery from the below freezing low temperatures of last month. At this time precipitation amounts are uncertain, but NBM currently shows widespread amounts of at least a few tenths of an inch, highest amounts above 0.50" over the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains. Spreads in ensembles for total precipitation remain low through early next week so at this time we are not expecting any major impacts from rain - although we will continue to monitor the forecast to see if this changes.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Breezy north/northwesterly winds (sustained winds 13-18 kts with gusts up to 25 kts) are expected to continue across all terminals this morning. These winds look to decrease by the late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds become light and veer southeast/southerly after sunset. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 62 32 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 34 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 69 38 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 62 37 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 36 49 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 32 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 30 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 34 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 62 35 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 62 33 60 29 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.