textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande are expected to be between 105 and 110 degrees during this timeframe.

- Low chance (10-20%) of isolated showers and storms return today. A few storms may produce damaging winds. Meanwhile, breezy winds heighten fire weather concerns across southeast New Mexico.

- Moderate rain chances (30-50%) are possible by the middle of next week across much of the area, though the highest chances will be in the eastern Permian Basin.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the axis of a shortwave trough extending from the southwestern CONUS to off the coast of Baja this morning. This trough is expected to pass just to the north of our area, allowing for a couple shortwave impulses of energy to move through southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, a dryline sets up from the Texas Panhandle/New Mexico border and extends south to the Big Bend. These features should provide enough forcing to foster the development of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of the area this afternoon. A few of which could become strong to severe (mainly across the eastern half of our CWA) given steep lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), sufficient DCAPE (>1000 J/kg), and inverted-V sounding profiles. Similar to yesterday, cloud bases will be high so damaging winds is favored to be the main threat. Though we cannot rule out the possibility of hail with some storms. Dry lighting may also occur over some areas this afternoon, which could ignite a wildfire (more on this in the Fire Weather Discussion below). In addition, lee cyclogenesis over the Central/Southern Great Plains creates a low-level mass response, resulting in another day of breezy winds (stronger in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains). Otherwise, southwesterly downslope winds yields similar highs today as yesterday's.

By Saturday, the dryline currently looks to shift east over our far eastern zones or just to the east of our forecast area. If this verifies, shower and thunderstorm activity should stay farther east as drier air is advected into our region from the west due to downsloping. Short-range guidance is indicating that surface troughing will extend into our northern zones on Saturday, bringing another day of breezy winds across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos. Meanwhile, persistent downslope flow and sunny skies allows for afternoon highs to climb a few degrees higher than today's. As such, many locations across the Permian Basin (potentially including Midland/Odessa), Trans Pecos, and along the Rio Grande look to see highs in the triple digits. Some portions in the Big Bend can expect to see highs reach up to 110 F. Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

By early next week, a trough begins to make its way over the Rocky Mountains and into the Central and Northern Plains. Ahead of it, upper-level winds become southwesterly over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Surface troughing allows winds to remain breezy Sunday and Monday (particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent parts of west Texas). These breezy downsloping winds keep highs in the upper 90s and low 100s through Monday. Highs between 105 to 110 degrees persist along portions of the Rio Grande, and fire weather concerns remain heightened across southeast New Mexico in particular through this time period as well. Rain chances appear very low Sunday, but 10-20% chances start to sneak back towards our easternmost counties Monday evening as the dryline retreats west.

While the aforementioned upper-level trough stays largely north of our area, guidance still indicates it will attempt to push a front our direction next week. The timing of the front remains a bit uncertain (currently it appears it will arrive Tuesday). It also appears the front will begin to wash out/stall as it moves our way. Nevertheless, by next week the dryline starts to set up over our area, allowing better-quality moisture to filter back into the eastern half of the region especially. Increasing moisture, coupled with pulses in the southwesterly flow aloft and the possible presence of the stalling front, allows low-to-medium shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) to return to the area by the middle of the week. In addition, the front and increased cloud cover/rain chances will cause temperatures to decrease from Tuesday into the latter part of the week. Highs in the 80s and low 90s will become commonplace during this timeframe. In other words, by next week the pattern finally begins to look a bit more reminiscent of spring.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Winds are forecast to become gusty at most sites early this afternoon and last through the early evening. There are low (up to 20%) chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening. However, opted to leave out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty in timing and positioning of activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 98 69 100 70 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 97 64 99 64 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 95 70 95 72 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 67 101 66 / 20 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 61 99 61 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 91 55 92 55 / 20 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 96 68 99 69 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 96 68 99 69 / 20 0 0 0 Wink 98 65 100 64 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.