textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already saturated soils remain a concern across the SE NM plains and the northwest Permian Basin today through tomorrow morning.

- Strong shear accompanying remnants of Hurricane Polo yields threat for spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds Tuesday evening through Tuesday night, especially for the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin.

- Strong (greater than 35 mph) south/southwest winds Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon for higher elevations, then a risk for high winds Thursday through Friday evening for the Guadalupes and Delawares.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Showers/storms are apparent on radar imagery early this morning, associated with mid-level Pacific moisture from TC Polo over Baja CA. This setup will continue to provide a favorable situation for shower/storm development this afternoon, amidst continued humid southeast, upslope winds. High-res CAMs indicate heaviest storms developing over Culberson County and Big Bend, then moving northeast and taking on an increasingly linear/bowed configuration. Following showers/storms through this morning, breaks in cloud cover allowing for daytime heating allow highs to rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s F. PoPs increase from less than 35% apart from the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin late this morning through late this afternoon, into the 45% to 60% range north of the Marfa Plateau and northeast of the Pecos River by 5 pm through 9 pm. Due to strong winds accompanying the remnant circulation of Hurricane Polo, as well as the circulation merging with a mid to upper storm system over the Desert SW, storm configuration and directional and speed shear yield a threat for spin-up tornadoes in addition to damaging straight-line winds. The threat is highest over Culberson County into the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, where CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg and 0-3km SRH nearing 150-250 m2/s2 will be maximized, and where CAMs are most consistent in showing linear bowing segment(s) over these regions. However, any place where stronger storms occur will have a threat of spin-up tornadoes and strong winds through late tonight (12 am to 3 am) due to the favorable ambient shear environment. Under widespread low cloud cover and and strong south/southwest winds 25 to 35 limiting overnight cooling, another night of mid 60s to mid 70s F lows is expected.

PoPs will not completely taper off tomorrow, as the mid to upper storm system providing forcing for showers/storms will be slow to develop east of the area. However, southerly winds shift to west/southwest as a lee trough over central and eastern portions of the area strengthens into a cold front and progresses east. Strong winds of 35 to 45 mph are forecast at times for the Guadalupes and passes from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon as remnants of TC Polo merge with the mid to upper storm system, but no wind products are in effect at this time. The near surface wind shift by tomorrow afternoon limits rain chances to more humid air ahead of the cold front, over the Lower Trans Pecos into eastern Permian Basin (35% to 50% chance) through tomorrow evening. A lower but nonzero severe threat will again be present. However, storm coverage stays more isolated, limiting probability of further widespread rainfall. As a result, the Flood Watch currently in effect is still expected to expire on Wednesday morning. Highs similar to today expect falling below 80 F for the westernmost and northern SE NM plains are forecast, and cooler air will not immediately filter into the area. By the time PoPs have winded down by late Wednesday night, there is a high (50% to 75%) chance that total rainfall of at least 0.50" will have fallen for much of the area northeast of the Marfa Plateau outside of dry slotting, up to 0.75" to 1.00" for the Guadalupes and SE NM plains as well as eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, and a 35% to 50% chance of rainfall up to 1.0" to 1.5" over the SE NM plains. Lows drop below 70F (60s F lowlands, 50s F higher elevations) as the cold front clears the area and winds shift to west/northwest behind the front by Thursday morning. Due to slow movement of the mid to upper storm system that is expected to linger near the CO Rockies and TX PH, unsettled weather persists into the end of the week. More details in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Strong northwest and then northerly winds persist over the forecast area into the end of the week as the mid to upper storm system will be slow to flatten over the High Plains. As the system develops east and loses strength, northwesterly winds will shift to northerly aloft and at the surface on the backside of the storm system. Highs will remain below the 90s F apart from the Big Bend and below the upper 70s F higher elevations Thursday as this occurs. With disturbances aloft on the backside of the system focusing moisture and providing lift for storm development in combination with daytime heating, afternoon/evening storms are still expected over the Upper Trans Pecos into Lower Trans Pecos, although coverage and timing this far out is uncertain. Winds become northerly/northeasterly by Thursday night and increase to High Wind criteria over the Guadalupes and Delawares as a reinforcing cold front makes its way south. Boundary layer mixing Thursday night keeps lows similar to Wednesday night, but by Friday, CAA in strong northerly winds will become more apparent as highs are expected to fail to rise above the 80s F north of the Rio Grande basin, above the 70s F for higher elevations, and above 90s F along the Rio Grande. Daytime heating will still allow for isolated daytime storms near higher elevations and the eastern Permian Basin, although no severe weather threat is indicated late week at this time. High winds will persist over the Guadalupes and Delawares through Friday evening before decreasing, as lows fall below 60F north of the Rio Grande basin, and below 50F for higher elevations, foothills of the Marfa Plateau, and northern Lea County.

Isolated shower/storm activity persists through the weekend into early next week as high pressure over the Rockies will not be able to build far enough south to suppress all storm activity, and core of mid to upper ridging where greatest amount of sinking motion suppresses rain chances will remain west of the area. Highs on Saturday remain similar to Friday, with lows Saturday night only a few degrees warmer than Friday night. As mid to upper ridging builds late weekend through early next week, a warming trend in highs remains in the forecast, although highs as warm as we saw earlier this week are not apparent by early next week at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

SHRA will continue through this morning mainly at MAF and FST terminals which will briefly reduce VIS to MVFR/IFR. MVFR CIGs may occur across terminals during the morning hours with the highest confidence being at FST and HOB. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected to begin late this morning into the early afternoon hours at most sites (besides CNM). Additional storms develop during the afternoon before becoming numerous to widespread across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas early this evening. Strong winds and heavy downpours reducing VIS will be the main impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 72 88 65 / 20 50 60 50 Carlsbad 86 65 81 59 / 70 80 0 0 Dryden 93 74 93 70 / 20 60 30 70 Fort Stockton 91 72 90 65 / 30 40 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 77 60 68 53 / 70 60 0 0 Hobbs 84 65 81 58 / 70 80 0 10 Marfa 84 62 80 55 / 30 40 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 88 72 86 64 / 30 50 30 40 Odessa 87 73 86 65 / 30 50 30 30 Wink 92 72 87 64 / 60 60 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.