textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- Moderate to high (50-75%) rain chances continue this afternoon and evening, particularly for locations along and west of the Pecos.

- Localized flash flooding associated with heavy rainfall is possible through the rest of the holiday weekend. Rain chances diminish greatly after Monday.

- High temperatures at or below normal expected through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Once again, showers and thunderstorms from this evening continue south of the Pecos River, with another complex of storms located in northern Lea County and an additional weakening cluster in the eastern Permian Basin. The activity farther south will continue to wane through the pre-dawn hours. More uncertainty exists with the complex in Southeast New Mexico (especially since model guidance has been less than stellar the last couple of days). That being said, 30- 50% rain chances have been retained through the early morning hours for the northern Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico, which is where the complex is most likely to move (assuming it can maintain itself long enough).

Convective-allowing models continue to suggest additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening along the diffuse boundary near/along the Trans-Pecos region. Rain chances range from 50-75% from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains eastward towards Terrell County and the Big Bend. Lower chances (10-40%) are forecast for the Permian Basin, where only remnant activity is expected (at best). As with Saturday, localized flash flooding and gusty thunderstorm winds would be the primary concern with storms that develop. Showers and thunderstorms will wane through the night. Additional activity is forecast for Monday, mainly in the Davis Mountains and Big Bend. That being said, what happens Monday will at least partially depend on what happens today, meaning confidence in Monday's rain forecast is currently fairly low.

Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures today and tomorrow, with highs generally ranging in the 80s to low 90s! After Labor Day, the forecast becomes a bit more benign. More on that in the Long Term...

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

By Tuesday, even though we will be under north-northwesterly flow aloft, rain chances drop to near-zero across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as a drying trend commences. That being said, at least low (10-20%) chances are maintained through the middle to end of next week for the northern Permian Basin associated with disturbances in the flow aloft. The NBM has trended up on temperatures through the extended, though ensembles still suggest temperatures close to seasonal norms (highs in the low 90s for MAF). We have let the NBM ride for now, but will continue to monitor trends and make adjustments if necessary. Ensembles also depict a potent upper-level system traversing north of the Great Lakes region late in the week into next weekend. This system could help push a more substantial cold front into the area by the weekend. Many models have backed off of that solution in recent runs (though at least a minor cool-down is still suggested). In any case, that is yet another thing we will keep a close eye on, along with any rain chances that may accompany such a system.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Still monitoring showers and storms as they develop and dissipate with numerous outflow boundaries across the region. Forecast confidence continues to be low with forecast guidance struggling to capture current conditions. Scattered SHRA this morning are expected to dissipate after sunrise with VFR prevailing through the day. More storms are expected to develop this afternoon, but confidence remains low in location and timing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 67 88 64 / 40 20 10 0 Carlsbad 86 66 86 64 / 40 20 20 0 Dryden 93 70 86 68 / 60 60 70 10 Fort Stockton 88 68 85 63 / 60 60 50 10 Guadalupe Pass 78 62 78 62 / 60 40 30 0 Hobbs 83 63 85 62 / 40 20 10 0 Marfa 81 61 78 55 / 70 40 70 10 Midland Intl Airport 85 69 88 66 / 40 20 10 0 Odessa 84 68 87 65 / 40 30 10 0 Wink 87 66 88 64 / 40 30 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Andrews-Borden- Dawson-Gaines-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.