textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are developing this afternoon north of I-20 as winds increase, relative humidity falls bellow 15 percent, and temperatures rise well above average.

- A strong cold front arrives overnight with gusty north winds bringing much cooler temperatures and blowing dust.

- Scattered showers/storms are possible overnight across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts scattered clouds over SE NM plains into W TX and dissipating mist/fog over the Pecos River valley as dew point temperatures west of a dryline are below 35F and east of a dryline stay above 40F. West of the dryline, strong west winds have prompted a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes from this afternoon through this evening, and increased fire weather risk over SE NM into parts of W TX (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details). Due to the strong winds over higher elevations, patchy blowing dust reducing visibilities is also possible. Highs today rise into the 80s and 90s F once more, around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. A 30% to 45% chance of scattered showers/storms east of the dryline over the eastern third of the area is forecast from this afternoon into tonight. Some storms east of the dryline could be severe this evening into tonight, with main threats in strongest storms being damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two. While some storms may produce locally heavy rain, widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. A strong cold front develops south/southeast and clears the area by tomorrow morning, bringing more seasonable temperatures in the 60s and 70s F for Saturday following lows Saturday morning in the 40s and 50s F, 30s F northern Lea County. However, following a lull in winds overnight, winds shift to northeasterly and again increase above 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, especially for the Guadalupes below 7000 feet and Guadalupe Pass. Therefore, despite cooler weather and more stable conditions behind the cold front, high winds are again expected for the Guadalupe Pass and northern Guadalupes into Carlsbad Caverns National Park, and a High Wind Warning is in effect from midnight tonight through noon Saturday. With continued CAA Saturday evening and dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture dropping into the 20s and 30s F allowing for more efficient radiational cooling, lows tomorrow night in the 30s and 40s F are forecast for much of the area, with 50s F confined to the region along the Rio Grande. Cooler weather persists prior to a warming trend, but showers/storms return to parts of the area to end the weekend and begin next week. More details on that in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Heading into Sunday, an upper level disturbance out ahead of an incoming ridge looks to move across the region. Medium to long range ensembles continue to put out increasing, but low (10-30%) rain chances across the western parts of the CWA before moving them eastward by Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Depending on the placement of cloud cover and rain, temperatures stay below normal for Sunday and Monday with many areas struggling to reach 70F. Less cloud cover and rain will mean slightly warmer temperatures, so there remains some uncertainty in just how cool or warm some areas will be. Rain amounts continue to look fairly low for most locations with the most likely outcome for most locations being under a tenth of an inch.

Tuesday and onward sees upper level ridging return to the southern US and that spells for warmer than normal temperatures each day with high reaching into the 80s and low 90s by Wednesday. With ridging expected to move in, rain chances look low for the middle and end of next week, as the pattern ensembles are honing in on would keep the dryline to the east of the area.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions apart from MVFR or lower conditions in regions of mist/fog at any terminals at the beginning of the period, and in any showers/storms for terminals on the eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau 22Z this afternoon through 15Z tomorrow morning. Main threats with stronger storms at any terminals will be damaging winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rain. West winds increase above 15 knots for terminals by 20Z today, decreasing below 15 knots and remaining westerly 00Z-03Z, and then shifting to northeasterly and again increasing above 15 knots 08Z-12Z into the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Forecast remains on track as surface observations are already showing increasing winds with gusts between 30-35 mph across southeast New Mexico and into adjacent West Texas counties. Many of those same areas are already seeing RHs fall below critical levels (<15%) and should bottom out near or below 10% by the mid afternoon. RFTI values will climb to near 6/7 north of I-20 and these conditions amid receptive fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions. A sharp windshift will occur overnight as a cold front passes with gusts of up to 50 mph continuing for a few hours behind the boundary. Slowly increasing relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight hours. Thunderstorm chances overnight will remain east of the critical areas where fuels have improved due to recent rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 51 69 41 71 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 49 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 72 51 67 / 20 30 10 20 Fort Stockton 54 71 47 69 / 20 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 46 62 43 60 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 44 69 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 45 67 38 63 / 10 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 51 69 43 69 / 20 10 0 0 Odessa 52 69 43 69 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 51 71 43 70 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.