textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- There is a low chance (10-30%) of patchy freezing fog this morning for portions of southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin.

- Gusty winds expected Friday and Saturday afternoon/early evening (especially in the Guadalupes/Delaware Mountains). There is potential for patchy blowing dust across portions of southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and around the Davis Mountains.

- After a weak front Sunday, a warming trend develops early next week. Precipitation chances are nil through the extended.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The Short Term looks to be a fairly active period, though not with respect to precipitation. Water Vapor imagery and Nighttime Microphysics shows evidence of southwest flow aloft, transporting Pacific moisture overhead as cirrus clouds in advance of an upper- level system. There may be enough moisture and ascent ahead of the upper-level system to bring some spotty showers overnight across the Big Bend Region as latest 500mb analysis depicts some upper-level divergence. There is a low (10-30%) chance of freezing fog this morning across southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin as clear skies, light winds, high humidity, and sub-freezing temperatures are expected in these regions. We will continue to monitor ground-based observations and satellite trends in search of evidence for the development of freezing fog. If freezing fog were to develop, we will likely issue a Freezing Fog Advisory as roads may become slick for drivers.

The aforementioned cirrus clouds are expected to remain overhead throughout the day on Friday. As the upper-level system approaches, surface lee troughing is expected to develop across southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas. This is expected to bring breezy conditions across much of the area, especially during the afternoon Friday. A mid-level jet associated with this system is forecast to pass over the vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains, yielding very gusty conditions. We have thus opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning that includes the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and the Carlsbad Caverns. Westerly downsloping winds will keep us dry and warm temperatures up considerably (15-20 degrees) from the day prior. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the 60s for most, except 50s in higher terrain. It is worth noting that some patchy blowing dust will be possible across portions of Eddy County and areas near the Davis Mountains with the gusty winds.

Another day of gusty, downsloping winds is expected on Saturday as the upper-level system advances and the lee trough brings about a surface low over the southern Plains. Winds are forecast to be more gusty Saturday as a winds accelerate in response to the surface low. With that in mind, another High Wind product may need to be issued for the Guadalupe Mountains once again in future forecast packages. Despite confidence in winds meeting criteria again on Saturday, we have held off on issuing additional products for now to avoid confusion in our messaging. Patchy blowing dust is also possible Saturday afternoon across southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and our western counties of west Texas in response to the gusty winds. Afternoon highs are forecast to be 2-6 degrees warmer than Friday for most due to clear skies, northwest flow aloft, and stronger downsloping winds.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds diminish Saturday night, shifting northerly as a shortwave sends a weak front into our area Sunday morning. This moderates highs Sunday afternoon, keeping much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the 60s and upper 50s (70s along the Rio Grande). Lows Monday morning once again dip down into the 30s across the region, with upper 20s in the far northern Permian Basin. Nevertheless, southerly winds redevelop Monday, and our area ends up under northwesterly flow aloft. This marks the beginning of a warming trend that persists through much of the forecast period. Monday's temperatures remain in the 60s for most, albeit 2-4 degrees above Sunday's highs. Temperatures continue to tick up daily through next week, topping out in the 70s areawide by Thursday (nearly 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year). By Friday, some model solutions hint at a cold front entering the region, but guidance remains pretty inconsistent on timing and frontal strength. As a result, for the time being we have left highs in the 60s across the area, but will continue to monitor trends in frontal strength and timing. In any case, precipitation chances are nil through next week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/decreasing high clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 33 68 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 32 68 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 42 76 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 40 73 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 36 57 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 30 66 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 32 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 35 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 35 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 32 69 39 62 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.