textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

- There is a moderate to high chance (30-70 percent) of a light wintry mix of precipitation transitioning to snow over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas starting around or shortly after sunrise and continuing through this evening.

- Strong northeasterly winds could bring reduced visibility and white out conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains today. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible with this event in the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of the Eddy County Plains. There is also potential for accumulating snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over Lea County NM, northern portions of the Upper Trans Pecos, and the western Permian Basin.

- Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday before temperatures rebound to above normal readings late this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

A strong cold front continues to surge southward toward the Presidio Valley and southern Big Bend region early this morning. Much colder air continues to filter into our region behind this front with temperatures falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s over most areas behind the boundary as of 2 AM CST. The coldest temperature is 27 degrees at the Tatum mesonet as of this time. Winds have gusted to 40-50 mph following the passage of the front late Sunday evening into early this morning. Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds continuing to thicken over our forecast area early this morning, but surface observations indicate that the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry, with surface dewpoints holding into the mid teens to mid 20s at 2 AM CST. Mid level ascent is starting to spread into portions of west Texas in association with a shortwave and slight enhancement in mid level wind speeds within the westerly flow aloft. Radar imagery already shows some light precipitation attempting to develop from the Upper Trans Pecos to the Permian Basin and we have observed a few sprinkles at KMAF, but the lower levels have remained too dry for anything but a trace of precipitation so far.

Short range and high resolution model data coming in this morning continue to show increased ascent and gradual moistening of the atmospheric column from the Sacramento Mountains through the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains by sunrise and continuing through the morning hours. Bands of precipitation should develop over these areas between 12-18Z (6 AM CST/5 AM MST through Noon CST/11 AM MST). Forecast soundings indicate that wet bulbing effects should sufficiently cool the column for precipitation to develop in the form of snow over most of these areas through the morning, though cannot rule out a brief mix of light rain/sleet/snow initially. Models have trended just a little further north with the area of greatest forcing, with the heaviest snowfall totals looking to be bullseyed over the Sacramento Mountains into the northern portion of our Guadalupe Mtns zone in NM and adjacent Eddy county Plains, including around Artesia/Carlsbad as we go through the day today. We will maintain the Winter Storm Warning for the Eddy County NM zone where total snowfall accumulations of up to 3-5 inches and perhaps locally around 6 inches may fall, especially in the western/northwestern part of the county. Heavy snowfall amounts still look to impact the Guadalupe Mountains, especially on the NM side, while snowfall amounts may taper down going toward the Guadalupe Mtns National Park on the TX side. Overall expect snowfall amounts up to 3-5 inches in parts of the Guadalupe Mountains, while strong northeasterly winds persist through the day, particularly through gap areas. These strong winds may result in visibility reductions with blowing snow, so plan on keeping the Blizzard Warning intact. Additional bands of light snow may spread into Lea County NM, and into the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans Pecos later this morning and into this afternoon/evening. There is still potential for 1-3 inches of snow to impact parts of Lea County, with at least 1 inch possible extending into parts of the western Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and northern Culberson County. Currently do not plan to make any change to the current advisory configuration, but will monitor trends to potentially discontinue the advisory over the Van Horn/I-10 corridor zone as most wintry precipitation potentially stays to the north of this zone. Some high-resolution solutions suggest we could get light snow in the Odessa/Midland area this afternoon/evening, but accumulations still look to be a trace to a dusting (less than 1") here at this time, so will keep Ector/Midland out of the advisory and monitor trends closely.

Ascent will weaken later this evening with precipitation chances quickly decreasing by late evening. We have dry weather conditions indicated after midnight. Highs today will be cold with readings in the 30s at best over much of southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos. Mountain areas likely stay below freezing today. Temps along the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Rio Grande areas will be chilly in the 40s and 50s. Much colder temperatures can be expected tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. It's possible for some areas with snowpack in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains to fall into the upper teens. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday, with temperatures to only trend slightly warmer in the 40s and 50s over most areas, though temperatures may be cooler than guidance where snow is still on the ground.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Ridging aloft will strengthen from the Desert Southwest/Four Corners into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. The ridge axis is forecast to build eastward across our forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Periods of zonal flow with embedded ridging aloft will generally prevail over our forecast area through the latter part of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Dry weather conditions will prevail through the extended forecast period with this pattern. Temperatures will return back to about 10 to 15 degrees above normal late this week and this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent at most sites today with overcast decks with bases between 4-6 kft AGL. A period of MVFR ceilings may develop over KCNM later this morning into this afternoon as areas of light snow develop. Visibility may be briefly reduced to MVFR to IFR thresholds if heavier snow develops at KCNM. Bands of light rain mixed with a few sleet pellets or flurries may also develop near KHOB, KINK, and KMAF through the morning before transitioning to light snow this afternoon. Precipitation should end by this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 39 29 54 31 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 35 24 48 29 / 70 40 0 0 Dryden 48 35 54 36 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 42 31 56 37 / 20 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 32 27 47 35 / 50 30 0 0 Hobbs 34 24 47 28 / 60 30 0 0 Marfa 39 22 53 28 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 29 51 33 / 40 20 0 0 Odessa 36 29 50 33 / 40 30 0 0 Wink 38 28 50 31 / 50 30 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Andrews- Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

NM...Blizzard Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.