textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 555 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Isolated storms continue today across portions of southeast New Mexico, Davis Mountains, Big Bend region, and far West Texas. Gusty winds will be the primary threat with the strongest storms.

- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week before a slight warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an upper- level ridge of high pressure centered over southeast New Mexico and far West Texas. With the increased subsidence from this feature, hot and mainly dry weather is forecast across most locations for Independence Day. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to lower triple digits regionwide. Surface troughing, upslope flow, and disturbances within the flow aloft induces a low chance (10-20%) for isolated thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico, far West Texas, the Big Bend region, and Davis Mountains this afternoon through early evening. Forecast soundings depict continued inverted-V profiles and high DCAPE values ( > 1500 J/kg) keeping the threat of gusty winds with the strongest storms.

Tonight, lows are expected to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure broadens and becomes slightly weaker thanks to the influence of upper-level systems across the Great Lakes and West Coast. As a result, similar high temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s are forecast. Isolated storms look to develop again across southeast New Mexico, far West Texas, and Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Forecast remains on track for mid-level ridging to persist through the middle of next week and then amplify more rapidly over the central CONUS thereafter, with a slight warming trend. Highs largely in the 95F-100F range, 100F-105F Pecos River valley and Presidio Valley, as well as 105F-110F range for the Big Bend will persist, with higher elevations still rising into the 90F-95F range. A low (10% to 30%) chance of showers/storms is still forecast to develop near mesoscale boundaries and as a result of heating of elevated terrain combined with passing terrain induced disturbances aloft that provide lift and moisture convergence. However, lee troughing remaining west of the forecast area, low RH in lower levels, and decreasing PWATs below 1.00" will limit higher rain chances and keep amounts up to a few tenths of an inch for most regions that see rain. Lows will settle into the 70F-75F range in cooler spots, 75F-80F range warmer spots, and 65F-70F range northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. The aforementioned slight warming trend brings highs into the 100F-105F, 95F-100F higher elevations, northern Lea County, and southeast Permian Basin, and up to 110F-115F for the Big Bend. Amidst light, humid upslope southeast winds, these warmer daytime temperatures may allow lows to largely remain in the 75F-80F range for eastern and southern parts of the area and 70F-75F elsewhere apart from 65F-70F higher elevations by the end of the week. No hazardous weather expected in the long term apart from increasing heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions and southerly to southeasterly winds (10-15 kts sustained with occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts) will prevail through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 77 100 74 / 0 0 0 20 Carlsbad 102 74 99 72 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 101 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 94 70 91 69 / 10 20 10 0 Hobbs 97 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 93 64 92 63 / 20 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 99 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 98 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 101 76 99 74 / 10 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.