textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Heavy rainfall with flash flooding in low-lying, sloped terrain, and poor drainage regions today through the end of the week in slow moving and/or training showers/storms, before drier weather returns this weekend.

- Strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight over parts of W TX and SE NM plains may also produce large hail and damaging winds.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VIS/IR satellite early this afternoon shows another mesoscale convective system over the area, producing moderate to heavy rain from northern Presidio County into Culberson County and farther east into the Marfa Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos. Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor have picked up 0.5" to 1.5", with 0.50" to 0.75" over parts of the Marfa Plateau. The cloud and precipitation shield accompanying this system has begun to decay late this morning but may restrengthen. The main risk with storms given weak southwesterly steering flow aloft and cloud tops remaining above -50C to -60C remains heavy rain. However, SPC has outlooked the region southwest of the Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau in a MRGL risk, with locally damaging winds and large hail in additional convective cores that develop (40% to 55% chance) being the main severe risks, aided by 7-8 C/km low to mid-level lapse rates. A 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms will continue to spread north/northeast from the western higher terrain into SE NM plains this evening, with breaks in clouds and daytime heating leading to possible restrengthening of storms. Due to the potential for additional flash flooding on top of what has all ready fallen, another Flood Watch has been issued for this afternoon through tonight. Otherwise, light south/southeast winds and mostly cloudy skies keeps highs in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations. Additional rainfall amounts of at least a few tenths of an inch are likely through tonight, with lows once again falling into the 60s F, 50s F. Tomorrow, similar high temperatures as another 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms are forecast, but with high-res CAMs and ensembles indicating heaviest storms over the Rio Grande basin into southeast Permian Basin rather than Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" and higher tomorrow will again pose another risk of flash flooding in regions of heavier and/or training storms, while PWATs remain at and above 1.00", allowing for any storms to be efficient rain producers. Tomorrow night, 25% to 35% rain chances linger over Terrell County into the southeast Permian Basin as lows again fall to similar levels as tonight. There will be a day or two more of showers/storms before drier weather finally returns. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A mid to upper disturbance over Baja CA providing lift and deep moisture convergence persists within weakly quasi-zonal flow through this weekend. PWATs also remain at least 2 standard deviations above normal from 1.00" to 1.25" through the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend, maintaining low to medium (35% to 55%) shower/storm chances over the area, especially the southern and eastern parts of west Texas into Marfa Plateau and Lea County Lea County. CAPE will not be overly high (1000-500 J/kg) while winds through the lower to mid troposphere will remain weak (<25 knots), preventing higher instability and rotation/persistence of stronger updrafts, respectively, keeping the severe risk at a minimum. Main impact of showers/storms will remain heavy rain with potential for flash flooding in low-lying, sloped, and poor drainage regions as well as lightning. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch to up to 0.5" or more in heavier and/or training storms is expected, although amounts are not likely to be as high as earlier this week. Until clouds and rain chances depart, highs will remain in the 80s F, 70s F higher elevations for much of the area, with lows remaining in the 50s and 60s F.

After the disturbance aloft weakens and mid to upper ridging takes over again, humid air characterized by dewpoint temperatures in the 50s and 60s F will remain over central and eastern parts of the area, while the western higher terrain into westernmost Eddy County experiences slightly less humid conditions with dew point temperatures decreasing back into the 40s F from this week's 50s and 60s F. Therefore, despite ridging and large scale subsidence decreasing rain chances back to near zero, highs near average in the lower to mid 90s F and lows above average in the mid 60s to mid 70s F are forecast in the more humid air, while within drier air farther west, highs rise back into the mid to upper 90s F and approach the century mark even as lows still fall into the 60s F.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions behind this morning's showers/storms at terminals over Lea County into Permian Basin, with MVFR or lower conditions in another round of showers/storms moving northeast for terminals on the Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon into SE NM plains and parts of the Permian Basin this evening. There is another 35% to 55% chance of showers/storms developing over parts of the SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin from 00Z this evening through 05Z-08Z early tomorrow morning. Main impacts of storms at terminals today and tonight will be heavy rainfall with ponding of water and lightning. Winds south/southeast and below 15 knots, apart from variable and gusting above 15 knots near outflow from showers/storms, as well as south/southeast and gusting to 20 knots for terminals over the Stockton Plateau 20Z through 05Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 85 66 84 / 40 30 50 40 Carlsbad 63 86 65 89 / 50 40 20 10 Dryden 69 88 68 86 / 30 20 60 60 Fort Stockton 65 87 66 87 / 30 60 50 60 Guadalupe Pass 61 79 64 80 / 60 40 30 30 Hobbs 61 83 62 84 / 40 30 30 20 Marfa 55 83 55 80 / 30 70 70 70 Midland Intl Airport 65 84 66 83 / 30 40 50 30 Odessa 65 84 66 83 / 30 40 50 30 Wink 65 85 66 86 / 30 40 40 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward- Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea.