textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Hazardous winds develop across the high terrain of west Texas and southeast Mexico beginning on Tuesday.

- Strong winds and dry weather set up near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and far northwest Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon. - Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions persist throughout the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 205 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level ridge building into southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Surface high pressure over the region will bring beautiful weather this afternoon. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s are expected. Tonight, lows drop in the upper 30s to upper 40s for most locations. The aforementioned surface high pressure slides to the east, while surface lee troughing sets up. This will veer winds back from the south, bringing much warmer weather heading into the work week.

Monday, the surface high pressure transitions over the Lower Mississippi Valley and surface lee troughing persists creating favorable conditions for breezy southerly winds during the afternoon. Warmer highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast. Monday night, the upper-level begins to weaken and move further to the east. This is thanks to an upper-level storm system moving into the western CONUS. This system will bring hazardous windy and fire weather conditions beginning on Tuesday. More details about this in the long-term discussion.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Windy conditions are in store beginning Tuesday lasting through Friday across the region, thanks to an approaching upper-level storm system. Long-range guidance continues to show a mountain wave signature developing on Tuesday lasting through much of the work week. This signature typically indicates hazardous winds, especially over the Guadalupe Mountains. Guidance also has medium to high (40- 90%) confidence in winds reaching at or above high wind criteria across the Guadalupe Mountains, Eddy County Plains, and portions of eastern Culberson County mid Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued for these areas during this timeframe. Further wind products may be needed for other locations on Tuesday, along with more products on Wednesday. Strong winds coupled with dry conditions set up near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast New Mexico extending into Gaines County, TX. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. More details on fire weather concerns Tuesday and throughout the work week will be in the fire weather discussion below. Another hazard to consider with these strong winds is blowing dust. Areas of blowing dust look to occur mainly across southeast New Mexico, while patchy blowing dust over the Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon which may reduce visibilities to less than a 1/4 mile. For Wednesday, a similar setup is forecast as the upper- level jet core sits over/near the region.

Thursday and Friday, the upper-level jet core moves east of the region resulting in lighter winds compared with Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper-level trough pushes a cold front Friday providing cooler temperatures into next weekend. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday (mid 60s to upper 70s for most locations) will be cooler than Monday and Tuesday due to cooler air behind a Pacific frontal passage Tuesday evening. Dry weather looks to persist through next weekend.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the forecast period. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through Monday morning. Winds become more southerly to southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts at KCNM, KHOB, and KMAF by Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Fire weather concerns begin to increase Monday due to critical MinRH, above normal temperatures, and breezy winds. Areas of southeast New Mexico southward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend received less rain compared to areas across the Permian Basin and will have drier existing fuels. Stronger winds and drier conditions Tuesday through Thursday looks to bring near-critical to critical fire concerns as finer fuels cure. Greatest concerns lie over southeast New Mexico and far northwest Permian Basin on Tuesday due to drier existing fuels and stronger winds. Strong winds with dry conditions are expected to remain through Thursday. As a result, fire weather concerns expand in coverage across the Permian Basin, Davis Mountains, and Trans Pecos. High cloud coverage is forecast to increase over portions of the region Wednesday and Thursday which may mitigate fire ignition.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 41 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 46 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 70 47 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 45 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 40 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 36 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 44 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 67 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 69 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.