textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Very warm (90s F lowlands, 80s F higher elevations) highs today with isolated storms (30% chance) from 12 pm through sunset.

- Heavy rain in scattered showers/storms begins Monday night lasting through Wednesday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect for the period.

- Strong southwest winds of at least 35 mph develop over the Guadalupes by Tuesday, with strong winds likely each day through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

One last day of very warm (90s F lowlands, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations) and relatively dry weather (rain chances below 30% until later this evening) is forecast for today. Mid to upper ridging over west/southwest TX will provide large scale sinking and drying motion that limits rain chances and allows for ample diurnal heating for late September. A few scattered showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin and heated elevated terrain is not out of the question from noon through sunset, but amidst a well- mixed boundary layer south/southeast winds 15 to 25 mph, nothing more than scattered low-level cumulus is likely for most places regarding extent of convection. Increased cloud cover and rain chances are expected by evening through early tonight, with PoPs rising to the low to medium (25% to 45%) range from the Guadalupes through SE NM plains. While exact timing and coverage is uncertain, multiple rounds of scattered showers/storms are likely overnight, with showers/storms moving east into the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau by early Tuesday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect for Culberson County and SE NM plains beginning Monday evening and continuing through Wednesday morning. With widespread clouds present overnight limiting overnight cooling, lows only fall into the mid 60s to lower to mid 70s F range.

Winds remain elevated in the 15 to 25 mph range Tuesday morning as the mid to upper storm system providing lift and moisture for scattered showers/storms also spreads strong southwesterly winds over the area. Between scattered showers/storms continuing through the day, breaks in clouds and accompanying daytime heating will allow for boundary layer mixing and winds to gust to 25 to 35 mph by afternoon, with high wind conditions possible for the Guadalupes. At this time, no Wind Advisories or High Wind Watch products are anticipated due to uncertainty in duration of ambient higher winds. We will leave the decision to later shifts on whether to issue any products. Medium to high (45% to 60%) rain chances will persist for much of the area north of the Rio Grande basin, with highest chances of heaviest rainfall over the SE NM plains into Permian Basin. Forecast and ensemble guidance indicates at least 0.25" to 0.50" (35% to 55% chance) and isolated regions over the Guadalupes and SE NM plains up to 1" (less than 30% chance) by Tuesday evening. Despite southerly winds persisting Tuesday, widespread cloud cover and evaporative cooling from scattered showers/storms will largely keep high temperatures in the 80s F to lower 90s F, 70s F higher elevations. Lows then again fall into the 60s to 70s F range Tuesday night. Continued strong south/southwest winds aloft accompany the base of the mid to upper storm system still to the east of the area, with gusts up to 40 mph possible for the Guadalupes Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Rain chances above medium chance (35% to 45%) taper off from west to east by Wednesday afternoon with drier weather thereafter and wetting rains of at least 1" to 2" for locations for highest rainfall totals (medium confidence), but an extended period of strong winds is expected to persist through the end of the week. This will be courtesy of the mid to upper storm system lingering over the TX PH and CO Front Range through Thursday before losing strength Friday, continuously imparting strong west/southwest winds in the mid to upper troposphere that mix down to the surface. Strongest winds up to High Wind Watch criteria are currently indicated over the Guadalupes and Delaware Mountains, with gusts above 25 mph elsewhere. A similar story Thursday but with lighter winds is expected as the mid to upper storm system begins to weaken. Each day, afternoon showers/storms also remain possible from heating of elevated terrain. This will stay true even as highs in the 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations, and 90s F Rio Grande basin and Terrell County Wednesday decrease into the lower to mid 80s F, upper 60s to mid 70s F higher elevations for Thursday as a drier, cooler, and more stable air mass attempts to move in behind the storm system. Lows Wednesday night currently show a more refreshing air mass characterized by lows falling below 65F for most of the area, and then below 60 F for most of the area by Thursday night. While winds stay gusty, winds shifting to west/northwest and then northerly by Thursday will allow for the aforementioned cooler and more stable air to finally move into the area.

Northerly/northeasterly winds at the end of the week then prevent highs from rising above the mid 80s F areawide through early weekend, largely settling in the 60s and 70s F, with lows below 60F for all but the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County. Afternoon/evening showers/storms will still be possible each afternoon/evening across higher elevations (especially Lower Trans Pecos), but chances should remain low (less than 35%). A warming trend late weekend through early next week is then expected to set in as winds return to more east/southeasterly and mid to upper ridging redevelops over the Desert SW into west Texas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light/variable flow Chances of convection are slim, but a low-based cu field is anticipated by noon Monday everywhere but KCNM. Mid/high clouds increase after 00Z Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 95 73 92 70 / 10 10 20 70 Carlsbad 90 67 85 64 / 0 30 70 80 Dryden 96 74 94 73 / 0 0 10 60 Fort Stockton 94 72 92 70 / 0 10 30 60 Guadalupe Pass 83 64 77 60 / 10 60 80 80 Hobbs 91 67 85 64 / 0 40 70 90 Marfa 86 64 85 60 / 10 20 40 70 Midland Intl Airport 94 72 89 70 / 0 10 30 80 Odessa 93 73 89 71 / 0 10 40 80 Wink 96 73 93 70 / 0 20 60 80

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch from this evening through late Tuesday night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.