textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

After some morning convection, yesterday was drier than the previous couple of days and it showed as highs rebounded a bit higher than forecast. That will not be the case today as an upper low drifts west into the CWA increasing convection today. Flooding will continue to be the primary concern. Daytime heating will initiate convection later this morning, but the presence of of the upper level low will continue convection overnight though perhaps diminishing in coverage. The best rain chances will be from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Showers and storms increase again Thursday afternoon in the same areas.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Upper low pressure remains over the area Friday continuing rain chances for most of the area. The Flood Watch currently in effect through Thursday may need to be extended into Friday, possibly in areal extent as well expanding north into the Permian Basin.

The low moves west into northern Mexico on Saturday causing rain chances to decrease for the first time all week east of the Pecos River. The proximity to the low west of the Pecos and orographic lift west of the Pecos River continues decent rain chances through the weekend while low rain chances remain over the Permian Basin. Temperatures remain well below normal into Friday before a warming trend begins over the weekend with near normal temperatures expected by the middle of next week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue. MVFR CIGs near Big Lake could move north and affect MAF but for now it appears that will stay south and east of the terminal. SHRA/TS will develop again after 15Z affecting if not the terminals directly, then local flying operations.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 65 81 66 / 60 40 80 70 Carlsbad 91 66 88 65 / 10 10 40 40 Dryden 87 67 86 68 / 60 60 80 70 Fort Stockton 84 64 83 65 / 40 30 80 40 Guadalupe Pass 83 62 81 63 / 10 10 40 30 Hobbs 86 63 83 63 / 20 20 50 50 Marfa 82 56 80 56 / 30 10 80 50 Midland Intl Airport 82 65 80 66 / 60 40 80 60 Odessa 83 65 81 66 / 60 40 80 60 Wink 86 66 84 66 / 40 20 50 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Central Brewster- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell- Upton-Ward.

NM...None.