textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Strong northerly winds of at least 35 to 50 mph are expected for the Guadalupes, Delawares, and mountain passes from late tonight through at Friday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures below 80F north of the Rio Grande basin expected by Friday and continuing through early weekend.

- Unsettled weather characterized by daytime showers/storms expected each day from late week through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Lee troughing which strengthened into a cold front over the central and eastern parts of the forecast area yesterday will continue to develop east of the area through today. As a result, PoPs above 30% will exit the area by daybreak. However, another cold front is expected to develop in from the north by the early afternoon. West/northwest winds shift to northerly and increase to 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts to 25 mph in response. Courtesy of the reinforcing CAA from the secondary cold front developing in from the north, highs today only rise up to the mid 70s higher elevations and up to the mid 80s F lowlands, with 90s F only present closer to the Big Bend. Cloud cover will increase in the more humid air behind the reinforcing front, and by late evening, PoPs increase into the 25% to 35% range over the SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian Basin. However, high- res CAMs show most of the activity remaining scattered, light, and mainly over the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, so no significant flooding concerns are expected despite the recently saturated soils. The bigger story will be wind: with the mid to upper storm system accompanying the surface cold front finally beginning to develop to the east and northerly flow increasing on the backside, northerly winds 35 to 50 mph are forecast over the Guadalupes and Delawares and mountain passes from late evening into midnight through mid-morning into afternoon Friday. While under High Wind product criteria, these strong northerly winds will still pose hazardous conditions for any travel through the passes. While cooler than previous nights, boundary layer mixing from strong winds will keep lows in the 60s F for the lowlands and the upper 40s to mid 50s F for higher elevations into the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin.

Shower/storm chances and even cooler high temperatures headline Friday, as PoPs 35% to 45% shift south/southeast from the Guadalupes into the Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau over the afternoon while northerly winds begin to decrease below 20 to 25 mph for lowlands and below 35 to 50 mph for highest elevations, while shifting to more northeasterly. Highs Friday will struggle to reach 70F for northern Lea County and northwest Permian Basin as well as the western higher terrain, and struggle to reach above 80F except for the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County. As on Thursday night, any shower/storm activity is not expected to be heavy or widespread enough in duration to warrant any major flooding concerns, while strong winds and gusts will still pose a hazardous weather threat to any travel through the passes. As northeasterly winds decrease through the evening and overnight allowing more efficient overnight cooling, lows fall below 60F north of the Rio Grande basin and below 50F for the Guadalupes, foothills of the Marfa Plateau, and northernmost Lea County. Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather will still be the story this weekend through early next week. More details are in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Northeasterly winds and temperatures largely below 80F north of the Rio Grande basin persist Saturday, while surface high pressure over the Rockies fails to filter down into the area and core of rebuilding mid-level ridging that would suppress rain chances stays off to the west. This will mean continued daytime shower/storm chances each day this weekend, although highest chances (25% to 35%) are currently indicated south of the Pecos River and from the Marfa Plateau into Terrell County. Most likely rainfall amounts as well as exact timing and coverage of any showers/storms remain uncertain this far out, but no flash flooding threat is indicated at this time. Highs warm back into the 70s and 80s F Sunday and Monday, then solidly into the mid to upper 80s F for lowlands and back into the mid to upper 70s F for higher elevations Tuesday as east/northeast winds veer back to southeasterly. By mid-week next week, 90s F are even indicated for the usual warmer spots along the Pecos River and northeast Permian Basin. However, lows will stay in the 50s and 60s F rather than remaining above 70F, while dew point temperatures also remain below the mid 50s F for most of the area. Therefore, even the return of warmer weather next week is not yet expected to meet or exceed the level of warmth seen earlier last month.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period. Winds shift northerly to northwesterly and become breezy later this morning. Occasional gusts up to 30 kts may occur at most terminals during the afternoon. Later tonight, a boundary looks to bring isolated to scattered showers which may drop ceilings to MVFR for some sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 85 61 74 57 / 0 10 10 20 Carlsbad 79 59 71 55 / 0 50 60 20 Dryden 88 65 81 61 / 0 0 20 50 Fort Stockton 83 60 75 57 / 0 20 60 40 Guadalupe Pass 69 53 62 51 / 0 30 40 30 Hobbs 79 57 70 53 / 0 40 40 0 Marfa 78 52 71 50 / 0 10 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 84 62 74 57 / 0 20 10 30 Odessa 83 62 73 58 / 0 20 10 20 Wink 84 61 76 57 / 0 20 30 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.