textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through early next week. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande are expected to be between 105 and 110 degrees during this timeframe.

- Low (20% to 30%) chance of isolated shower/storm development expected today and Friday over the Davis Mountains, adjacent areas in the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. A couple of storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and small hail.

- Moderate rain chances (30% to 50%) are possible by the middle of next week across much of the area though the highest chances will be in the eastern Permian Basin.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

An upper level ridge is located over Texas and Mexico this afternoon. A weak disturbance is moving across West Texas within the ridge and could cause isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the next several hours continuing until near midnight. Moisture is limited and cloud bases will be quite high meaning strong downburst winds will be the primary threat from any convection. Even showers that do not look impressive on radar could produce strong downburst winds due to evaporative cooling beneath the cloud base. However due to the isolated nature of the storms, severe potential will be low today. Similar conditions exist tomorrow, though the upper trough will be farther eat, so the thunderstorms threat should be in the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Highs will inch up slightly tomorrow and many areas in the basin will approach or barely exceed 100 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The heat continues into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few 100s in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. Zonal flow should keep the moisture to our east and thus no chance for rain through Monday. Models are in good agreement that a trough develops in the northern Rockies causing upper flow over the CWA to become more southwesterly and unstable. Moisture increases at the surface and a cold front could potentially move into the area Tuesday or Wednesday serving as a low level focus for convective development. NBM increases PoPs at that time, perhaps too much so, with rain chances reaching 30-50%. We will have to keep an eye on this over the next few days but rain chances seem a bit high for a day seven forecast. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos would be the areas most likely to see rainfall if this scenario were to occur. Highs diminish next week with the increased clouds and rain chances, and would really take a hit if the cold front were to make it through the area.

Hennig

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds increase and shift southwesterly this afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 30kts may occur at most terminals besides PEQ. PROB30s and TEMPOs have been added at MAF, FST, PEQ, and INK sites this afternoon and evening due to isolated to scattered coverage storms anticipated bringing brief IFR to MVFR VIS. After 03Z, storms are expected to end, while winds decrease and shift more southerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 100 68 100 / 20 20 10 0 Carlsbad 69 95 63 98 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 71 93 69 94 / 30 10 20 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 67 100 / 30 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 67 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 95 61 98 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 59 88 55 92 / 30 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 99 68 98 / 20 10 10 0 Odessa 70 98 68 98 / 20 10 10 0 Wink 68 98 65 99 / 20 10 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.