textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are expected again today.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again today, especially over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region Friday morning, bringing windy conditions to the area (especially Guadalupe Pass) and a much cooler weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The heat continues, at least for one more day. WV imagery this morning shows that the upper ridge has developed east over the past 24 hours, and is currently centered over Chihuahua. This feature will provide one last day of balmy weather for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As expected, Midland International Air & Space Port hit a high of 93 F, beating the old record of 92 set in 2020.

Latest observations show return flow over the plains, w/the KMAF VWP showing a 40 kt LLJ right off the deck to assist, courtesy of leeside troughing over the Front Range. This will keep overnight minimums over 20 F above climatology.

Starting from such warm lows, record-breaking temperatures are expected again this afternoon, aided by mostly sunny skies, increasing thicknesses under the ridge, and return flow. This will be the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau a good 20-25 F above normal. The only downside to this will be elevated fire weather conditions. See fire wx discussion below for more details.

To spoil the warmer weather, another cold front arrives late tonight/Friday morning, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings holding steady with a fropa at KMAF at around 11Z. Although fropa timing hasn't changed, models have strengthened the front/CAA, and now NBM cools highs Friday afternoon to ~ 5-10 F below normal, almost 30 F cooler than this afternoon! This will also make for a strong gradient/windy Friday, and we'll issue a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupes/Delawares, especially KGDP, where high gap winds will develop late tonight through Saturday morning. This may need to be expanded onto the adjacent plains later. Wind advisories will be needed Friday over the rest of Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas. Dry soils ensure dust advisories will be needed, as well. Unfortunately, this does not appear to be the fabled Easter cold spell, as both the GFS and ECMWF hint at another cold front during the first week or so of April. Stay tuned...

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Friday night, a stratus deck is forecast to develop behind the front, and models develop isolated rain showers over the southeast Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos. Saturday, surface winds are forecast to veer back to return flow, but late enough that highs will only recover a degree or so from Friday's.

The upper ridge will continue developing east through Texas and into the Gulf the rest of the week. Sunday, with return flow cranking again, a more substantial recovery begins as highs leap over 15 F, to around 10 F above normal. Monday afternoon/evening, convection will be possible as a shortwave moves through the region. Temperatures will then inch up under zonal-to-southwest flow aloft through Tuesday afternoon, when highs climb into the 90s many locations, around 15 F above normal. Wednesday, models bring a Pac front through the area, shaving a couple of degrees off highs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions remain through tonight with mainly southerly winds. Occasional gusts possible through tonight. A cold front moves through the region between 10z-14z on Friday. Winds shift to the north and northeast and increase significantly. Reductions in VIS due to BLDU are expected, but not included with this issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Fire wx concerns will continue today due to unseasonably warm temperatures. Low single-digit RH continues, along with ERCs 75+ percentile, with increasing severity running southeast-to-northwest and into Southeast New Mexico. Fuels remain dry/critically dry, as well, closely correlating w/ERCs. The one missing ingredient continues to be substantial 20-ft winds. Under the upper ridge, they just can't develop sufficiently to warrant a warning attm. That said, only elevated to near-critical conditions at best are anticipated today. The area of concern will be Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas, where increased 20-ft winds will coincide with critical relative humidity.

A strong cold front arrives Friday, and this may result in a few hours of isolated critical fire wx conditions along/behind the front before cooler temperatures advect into the region. However, the timing of the front (late night/early morning) looks to be such that the higher winds occur before warmer temperatures have a chance to materialize. Thus, we'll forgo any watch/warning products attm. Instead, we'll highlight the front in routine products.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 55 66 43 68 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 55 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 83 51 71 / 0 0 20 0 Fort Stockton 60 71 46 70 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 50 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 50 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 56 66 44 68 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 56 66 45 68 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 54 67 44 69 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.