textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Monday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame.

- Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and again Monday afternoon and evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Summer-like temperatures and strong south/southwest winds during the daytime persist into the early week. VIS/IR satellite imagery depicts scattered clouds across the eastern portions of the area this afternoon. Lower clouds will largely remain to the east of the forecast area, since the more humid air east of the dryline (characterized by dew point temperatures above 60F throughout the day) largely remains east of the forecast area. In the drier air west of the dryline, strong south/southwest winds enhance critical fire weather concerns over SE NM into Culberson County and northwest Permian Basin today and tomorrow (see Fire Weather discussion). Highs today rise into the 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, and 105F to 110F for the Big Bend. Hazardous heat will be less widespread than yesterday due to slightly cooler temperatures and lower dew point temperatures maintaining apparent temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s F. There is again a stray (<5%) chance of a shower/storm over northern and eastern parts of the Permian Basin from late this evening into tomorrow morning, but most places should remain dry as lows fall into the mid 60s to lower 70s F east of the dryline and mid 50s to lower 60s F west of the dryline. Following a humid start to the morning with low stratus over easternmost parts of the forecast area, the dryline will once again surge east of the area and allow hot and dry weather to prevail, with 90s F, triple digits for central and northeast parts of the forecast area, and along the Rio Grande. Unlike today, highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer due to stronger west/southwest downsloping winds, so there is some risk of hazardous heat mainly over the easternmost Permian Basin and Terrell County where dew point temperatures will be higher closer to the dryline. Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight, but low (15% to 20%) PoPs develop over the eastern Permian Basin early Tuesday morning as a disturbance ripples through southwest flow aloft and provides lift and moisture for elevated convection. Shower/storm chances will continue to increase throughout the day and this is merely a prelude to a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern by the middle of next week. Read the Long Term Discussion below for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A pattern shift finally takes place across west Texas and southeast New Mexico going into the middle to late part of the week. A cold front will be pushing through the Texas panhandle early Tuesday morning and may make it as far south as the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin by late Tuesday morning before stalling over the Trans Pecos on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will depend on the positioning of the front, but highs are currently forecast to trend cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Tuesday behind the front, while staying hot in the upper 90s over the Trans Pecos and up to 101-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Moisture values will be improved east of this boundary, with afternoon dewpoints in the 40s and 50s over the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, while much drier air resides over western portions of the forecast area. Shortwave impulses in southwesterly flow aloft should translate over west Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening, and may aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the boundary, including over much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region where a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours.

A series of more significant shortwave impulses embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across our forecast area Wednesday into Thursday while the surface boundary remains oriented over the forecast area both days. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will also return both days, allowing low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s. Medium range and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement with bringing increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best coverage along and east of the Pecos River, including far southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1.25 to 1.5 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances by Friday. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (20-40%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures trend back to near to slightly below normal values.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions continue this TAF period. Gusty winds and light low level turbulence decrease overnight before returning 15-18Z Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Breezy and dry conditions can be expected through the remainder of this afternoon again Monday afternoon with min RHs bottoming out in the mid single digits. Poor RH recovery is expected again tonight west of the Pecos River. This very dry airmass combined with well above normal temperatures, southwesterly 20 foot winds up to 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts, and ERCs in the 75th-90th percentile will bring critical to near extreme fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, and northwestern Basin both this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. We have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning over these areas for Monday afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 70 99 69 90 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 63 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 101 72 97 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Stockton 66 100 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 93 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 53 91 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 97 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 69 97 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 64 98 61 95 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.