textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Low chance (10-20%) of isolated showers/storms today and Tuesday, mainly in/around the higher terrain. Increased rain chances accompany another front Wednesday into Thursday.

- Warm temperatures stick around through this week.

- Another cold front and low (10-30%) rain chances for Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 158 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Temperatures continue to warm through the Short Term Period as southerly winds persist at the surface. Highs today manage to top out in the upper 80s and low 90s across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Like yesterday, winds in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos become breezy (15-25 mph). Some embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft will also move across our area today. Of note, some isolated convection did manage to develop yesterday afternoon in the Davis Mountains. This lends increasing confidence to additional isolated showers and thunderstorm developing today, mainly in/around the higher terrain of west Texas and southeast New Mexico (Davis Mountains, Stockton, Plateau, etc). Given the isolated nature of the convection, rain chances are low (10-20%) this afternoon. Overnight lows stay warm (50s and low 60s), thanks to low-level moisture and persistent southerly winds.

Tuesday's temperatures likewise remain warm, and most locations once again top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. Winds begin to increase out west ahead of an approaching upper-level trough (more on that in the Long Term Discussion). Otherwise, once again some embedded shortwave may interact with enough moisture to allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the Lower Trans-Pecos and Stockton Plateau (though some Convective-Allowing Models attempt to generate some isolated convection in the Permian Basin as well).

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

An upper level trough translates from the Rockies into the Great Plains Tuesday night through Wednesday. Flow aloft shall be zonal Tuesday evening, becoming southwesterly Wednesday as the through nears. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the Panhandle steers winds out of the south and southwest, keeping Tuesday night's lows in the 50s to mid 60s. Breezy to strong south/southwest winds gradually envelop the region through the day Wednesday as the jet max approaches. Winds over the Guadalupe/ Delawares are likely to reach High Wind criteria Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, the surrounding plains may reach near Advisory criteria. These winds aid in pushing highs Wednesday afternoon into the 80s to low 90s. Aside from elevated winds, lift associated with this system and its accompanying front introduces rain chances into the forecast Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Isolated to scattered showers/storms shall be possible areawide by Wednesday evening, with best odds over the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.

Late Wednesday into early Thursday, the trough's front sweeps across our region. Rain chances come to an end Thursday morning and afternoon highs largely top out in the 80s. Westerly winds remain breezy Thursday morning, eventually tapering down throughout the day and becoming southwesterly. As this system departs, another one begins to dig into the western US, reaching the Plains by late Friday. This system brings another cold front into the area by Saturday. The eastern half of our area could also see the return of rain chances as the front pushes in. Low rain chances and cooler temperatures are forecast through the weekend as moisture and shortwave impulses within an elongated trough linger overhead. Warm temperatures stick around through this week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail, with southerly winds at all terminals. Cumulus develops this afternoon for much of the area. Models continue to indicate a couple of isolated showers or storms may develop in the vicinity of terminals west of the Pecos River today, but confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 88 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 92 56 91 60 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 87 60 91 62 / 10 0 20 10 Fort Stockton 92 62 92 62 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 82 58 80 58 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 90 54 88 54 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 85 48 84 50 / 20 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 88 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 91 58 93 58 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.