textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- A summer-like pattern with hot temperatures and drier conditions will prevail through the week.

- Heat related concerns will increase over the Pecos River Valley and along the Rio Grande where high temperatures will range between 100-108 degrees through much of this week.

- More seasonable but still very warm temperatures with increased shower/storm chances Friday through this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper-level ridge extends over far southeast New Mexico and much of the state of Texas this afternoon. A very warm and humid airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s is in place along and east of a dryline extending from near the TX/NM state line to the Big Bend this afternoon. Visible satellite and radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorm development from near the I-10/20 split to the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau early this afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop over the vicinity of Lea County NM into the western and northwestern Permian Basin along the dryline later this afternoon. We have placed 10-20% storm chances over these locations through the early evening hours. Mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures otherwise prevail over our region this afternoon with highs reaching into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over much of the area, and up to 100-105 degrees along the Pecos River Valley and 105-110 degrees along the Rio Grande. Breezy south to southeast winds will develop over much of the area tonight with mild low temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The upper-level ridge will shift further to the east over the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as an upper-level trough lifts across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Humid conditions and breezy south to southeast winds will continue over locations along and east of the Pecos River through Tuesday afternoon. A couple of isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop over the Permian Basin or Lower Trans Pecos Tuesday, but POPs remain below 15% at this time. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with the eastward displacement of the upper-level ridge, but highs are still forecast to reach into the 90s, with a few locations along the Pecos Valley up to around 102 degrees and up to 103-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows Tuesday night continue to range in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A hot and humid two days ahead are in store for Wednesday and Thursday, before slightly cooler but still very warm and humid weather persists late week into the weekend. Wednesday, triple digits will be widespread not just over the Rio Grande basin and and along the Pecos River valley, but the basins of Culberson County and SE NM plains into the western Permian Basin. Midland- Odessa might just get their first 100F day of the year. 105F-110F temperatures are likely from the Presidio Valley into the Big Bend, as well as right along the Pecos River valley from the Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos. Elsewhere, highs rise into the 90s F. Dew point temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s F will keep apparent temperatures slightly below actual air temperatures, but still warm enough to pose hazardous heat risk along the Rio Grande, Culberson County, and Upper Trans Pecos into Eddy County Plains. Weak mid to upper ridging and heating of elevated terrain interacting with a diffuse wind shift boundary over the western higher terrain will allow 25% to 45% PoPs to develop over the Marfa Plateau. With lee troughing to the west of the area allowing dew point temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to mid 60s F areawide overnight, along with 20 to 25 mph south/southeast winds in a LLJ, overnight cooling will be limited and lows will only fall into the mid 60s to mid 70s F range, and may not fall below 80F for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend. Thursday, same deal but even warmer. In fact, Thursday is on track to be our warmest day this week and possibly so far this summer, with triple digits readings expanding over much of the Permian Basin, including the Midland-Odessa region. PoPs are expected to be lower as ridging briefly strengthens and provides more large scale subsiding air and warming and drying of the air column. With exception of the Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, heat advisories, watches, and warnings may needed over much of the forecast area for Thursday afternoon. Lows Thursday night stay similar to the previous nights.

After ridging briefly strengthens mid-week, it again weakens by the end of the week into the weekend. The accompanying decrease in subsiding winds will allow increasing shower/storm chances over parts of the area, although location and coverage of showers/storms is still uncertain at this time. PWATs will not decrease significantly until next week, so heavy rainfall and pockets of flash flooding will remain a risk in usual poor drainage and sloped terrain regions. The increased cloud cover from showers/storms will allow highs to drop back down to seasonable: in the lower to mid 90s F, triple digits confined to the Rio Grande, and mid to upper 80s F for higher elevations. Still, lows are only expected to cool by a few degrees over western higher terrain into the northwest Permian Basin. Over the weekend, PoPs remain higher than earlier this week areawide each afternoon/evening. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures, since a cold front and bulk of convective activity in the storm track will remain to the north of the area. By early next week we finally see indications of the cold front dropping into the area, decreasing highs into the mid to upper 80s F for regions such as Lea County and the Permian Basin, which have not seen highs as low as that since last week. Cooler daytime highs, widespread low (25% to 35%) shower/storm chances, models indicating a few tenths of an inch in regions of higher PoPs, and cooling outflow persisting into the overnight hours may all help to push lows back down below 70F for a large chunk of the Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau. Even so, this far out the forecast after Friday is highly subject to change, depending on how the upper air and surface frontal pattern progresses.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions persist through most of the night at all terminals. However, MVFR CIGs look to arrive over MAF during early Tuesday morning before returning to VFR mid to late morning. Gusty south/southeast winds are forecast through the night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 92 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 71 105 72 / 10 0 10 0 Dryden 95 73 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 71 103 72 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 94 67 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 93 62 96 62 / 0 0 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 91 71 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 92 71 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 97 71 104 72 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.