textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Temperatures largely remain above normal through the weekend and into next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered (10-30%) afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend today. Isolated storms may also develop over parts of southeast New Mexico and the far western Permian Basin. Dry weather conditions continue over the rest of the region.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop each day over western portions of the region Thursday through the weekend, with the best chances favored over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level ridge extending from far west Texas to the Gulf Coast states and is expected to continue shifting eastward. Meanwhile, a surface trough stretches from the central High Plains to southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend. This yields highs near to just above the century mark across much of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Some spots along the Rio Grande can expect to see temperatures top out between 105 and 108 degrees this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-30% coverage) is forecast to develop over the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and across portions of the Big Bend/Presidio Valley region this afternoon and evening. This is due to increased moisture along the surface trough and a shortwave impulse that moves within the flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper-level ridge. There is also a low (10-15%) chance of isolated convection across portions of southeast New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, and Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains in association with these features. A few storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall/wind gusts and frequent lightning. We cannot rule out the possibility of a fire ignition due to dry lighting as well. Convective coverage is expected to diminish into the early evening hours.

By Thursday, the aforementioned upper-level ridge shifts farther to the east, becoming centered over the Gulf Coast states. Simultaneously, the surface trough continues to extend across similar areas as today. Abundant moisture along this feature will favor the development of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across similar areas as today. The best chances (30-50% coverage) remain over the Davis Mountains, Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and the Trans Pecos. Though chances are lower, convective development could occur over the Big Bend, Presidio Valley, Van Horn corridor, portions of southeast New Mexico, and the western Permian Basin. A few storms could again produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the eastern zones of our forecast area should remain dry due to its close proximity to the ridge. Afternoon highs are forecast to be similar as today's, though many spots across our western zones cool a couple of degrees as the ridge axis becomes situated farther east. Greening

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Temperatures tick down Friday and Saturday as the upper-level ridge sets up over the southeastern CONUS. Highs generally top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, with 100 degree temperatures becoming less widespread and more confined to the river valleys. By the latter half of the weekend and into next week, the ridge begins to shift westward again. As a result, temperatures start to trend back up by Sunday through at least the middle part of next week. As far as rain chances go, upslope flow and a shortwave moving along the western periphery of the ridge will allow scattered showers and storms to once again develop in and around the higher terrain through the weekend. Chances range from 10-40% for portions of the Upper Trans- Pecos, Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and Presidio Valley, with higher chances (40-60%) in/near the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Rain chances decrease early next week thanks to increasing subsidence and decreasing moisture as the ridge shifts westward. By Monday, only low PoPs (10-30%) are maintained for far western portions of the region and in the Davis Mountains, and by Tuesday chances drop to about 10% for these same areas.

Sprang

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours and south/southeast winds continue. A few TSRA is forecast to develop in the Trans Pecos this afternoon, though there is uncertainty in impacts of airport operations. To account for this, have opted to include PROB30 for TSRA at KFST between 20-24Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 76 102 76 100 / 0 10 10 0 Carlsbad 75 100 74 99 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 77 102 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 99 74 97 / 10 30 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 Hobbs 72 100 72 98 / 10 20 10 10 Marfa 65 91 64 90 / 10 40 10 60 Midland Intl Airport 76 100 76 98 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 77 100 76 98 / 0 10 10 0 Wink 76 101 75 99 / 10 20 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.