textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Above normal temperatures continue this week, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

As of 1503Z this morning, winter has begun, but the days are finally getting longer. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge has pushed east, and is centered over southwest Sonora, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Although mesoanalysis shows surface winds in the process of veering back to return flow, thicknesses will take a hit today, rendering afternoon highs nearly 15 F cooler than yesterday. Even so, highs will remain ~ 8-10 F above climatology.

Likewise, despite mostly clear skies and light winds promoting efficient radiational cooling, tonight's minimums will stay around 10 F above normal.

Fortunately, the ridge will continue pushing east, centering over the Big Bend Area Monday afternoon. This will result in a jump in thicknesses, leading to a respectable recovery in temperatures as afternoon highs increase to 18-20 F above normal.

Monday night, increasing cloud cover and a 25 kt LLJ will add around 5 F to tonight's lows.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The forecast remains on track for temperatures being well above normal through the end of the week, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This is thanks to an upper-level ridge axis moving over our area. Overnight lows also continue to look to be well above normal, with lows in the 40s and 50s each night. Overnight lows will be pushing record-breaking "warm low" territory through Saturday morning. Confidence remains high (>80%) in these high and low temperatures next week as guidance has been very consistent, with little spread among the ensemble members due to this weather pattern. By the end of the week, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis depicts an upper-level storm system developing off the coast of California. As this system approaches the region by Sunday, afternoon highs could fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s. However, there is great spread among the ensemble members, suggesting that the forecast for Sunday is subject to change. Temperatures on Sunday all depends on the positioning and timing of the aforementioned storm system. Dry conditions continue through the whole period.

Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Light, sometimes variable, winds continue. VFR at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 40 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 38 78 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 42 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 44 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 39 78 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 37 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 41 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 42 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 37 77 39 77 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.