textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- A couple of strong to severe storms may be seen this afternoon and evening across the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Large hail, damaging winds, and lightning will be the main hazards.

- Strong gap winds expected late tonight and into Saturday morning with the passage of a cold front in the Guadalupe Mountains.

- Medium (40-70%) rain chances continue for areas south of the I-10 corridor for Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Surface observations show a dryline cutting across the Permian Basin just west of Midland-Odessa and sitting just east of the city of Pecos continuing southward and staying east of Alpine. An upper low will move out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains over the course of today. The combination of broad ascent and the dryline will aid in developing isolated thunderstorms mainly across the eastern portions of the area from around Midland/Odessa to the east. Forecast soundings show enough wind shear and steep enough lapse rates for large hail and damaging winds to be the main threats with any storms that get organized. Showers and storms will begin developing by the early afternoon and gradually move to the east before exiting the region or decaying around or just after sunset. Highs look to reach into the 80s for most with 90s across the Big Bend.

A cold front approaches late tonight and will bring strong gap winds to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. For this, a High Wind Warning has been issued with the winds expected to last for much of the morning on Saturday. Rain chances continue for areas south of the front for much of Saturday. Highs will struggle to reach the 70F mark for most locations.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Rain chances extend into the long term forecast as short wave trough pass across Northern Mexico and into West Texas bringing scattered showers and storms to areas mainly south of the I-10 corridor for both Sunday and Monday. Below normal highs hang on from Sunday through Tuesday with many reaching the 60s. Areas where cloud cover and rain are expected may struggle to reach 60F. Rain amounts for Sunday and Monday will not be drought busting, but will be beneficial. Upper level ridging returns over the TX/NM by Wednesday and temperatures look to move back to near or above normal with 70s and 80s for highs and 50s for lows. Rain chances shift eastward for the latter half of the week as long range guidance shows another dryline type pattern setting back up.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR continues at all sites with MVFR CIGs sitting just east of MAF/FST. PROB30s remain in where confidence is higher in convection developing near MAF/FST this afternoon. Cold front moves through the area early tomorrow morning and will shift winds to the north and northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 52 68 46 / 50 70 30 10 Carlsbad 88 50 71 49 / 0 10 0 10 Dryden 84 61 73 53 / 50 20 70 50 Fort Stockton 88 55 69 51 / 40 40 50 30 Guadalupe Pass 78 48 62 46 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 86 47 69 44 / 10 30 10 10 Marfa 83 45 67 40 / 10 10 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 83 53 68 49 / 30 50 30 10 Odessa 84 53 68 49 / 30 40 30 10 Wink 88 53 70 49 / 20 20 20 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.