textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will peak today, potentially tying a daily record high! Temperatures gradually decrease into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Current 500mb RAP analysis shows a broad upper level ridge residing over the eastern CONUS. Today, ridging builds back over our region, pushing temperatures a couple of degrees warmer this afternoon compared to Wednesday. Triple digit highs are progged to overspread much of the Permian Basin, SE NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Rio Grande valley. A few locations within the Big Bend may reach up to 108 degrees this afternoon. Given a forecast high of 101 degrees this afternoon at MAF, we could tie the daily high record set on September 3, 2012! Highs Friday afternoon then taper down a degree or two, but remain much above normal for early September. Lows tonight fall to the 60s near the higher terrain, with low to mid 70s expected for most.

Upslope flow may yield isolated to scattered (10-40%) showers/storms both today and tomorrow afternoons/evenings west of the Pecos River and over portions of SE NM. The best (40%) chances will be focused near the Davis Mountains and along the western fringes of our area. Should any storms become strong, the primary hazards will include gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper level ridging builds back over the Great Plains this weekend. However, the ridge will not be as potent as it once was. As a result, highs Saturday remain largely in the 90s across the region, with triple digit heat expected in portions of the NE Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, SE NM, and the Rio Grande valley. As it stands, Saturday looks to be our last day of widespread highs beyond the century mark! Early next week, the core of the ridge begins to gradually shift eastward, toward the SE CONUS. Decreasing thickness aloft allows for slightly cooler temperatures through the middle of the week. Each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday looks to feature highs predominantly in the 90s. Those in and near the higher terrain can expect highs in the 80s. Triple digit heat becomes restricted to isolated areas along the Rio Grande next week. Overnight lows within the extended forecast are progged to range in the 60s to 70s. By the end of the period, lows in the 60s start to become more commonplace. The extended forecast remains dry for most of the region, with the exception of the higher elevations and portions of SE NM. In these areas, moisture along the western periphery of the ridge combines with upslope flow to promote isolated to scattered showers/storms most afternoons. The best rain chances will tend to favor locations in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions and light southeast winds continue through the TAF period. Isolated TS will develop after 18Z and could affect CNM/HOB until shortly after 00Z when the activity dissipates.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 103 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 73 101 73 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 102 77 102 75 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 100 75 100 73 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 91 70 90 69 / 10 20 20 30 Hobbs 100 73 100 72 / 10 10 0 10 Marfa 92 64 91 63 / 20 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 100 77 100 75 / 10 0 0 10 Wink 102 77 102 75 / 10 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.