textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 - There is a low to medium (10-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening across portions of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos.

- A few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon/evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

- Breezy conditions are expected with today's cold frontal passage, with higher winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A dryline bisects the Permian Basin north-south just to the west of Midland/Odessa this morning. It will act as one of two foci for isolated storms to develop over parts of the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. A cold front currently in Kansas/Oklahoma will push down across the Plains and into the region by early this afternoon. Timing will be important as a later arriving front may mean more storms across the area before the front pushes through and shoves the dryline to the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. With both the front and the dryline, isolated convection will be possible and a few storms may be strong to severe capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. As the front pushes southward, isolated convection from the dryline gets pushed east and may congeal into a line of thunderstorms either as the activity exits the region or shortly after it moves into west-central Texas. Highs this afternoon will be dependent on frontal passage timing, essentially, the later the front, the warmer areas will be able to get. With the current forecast, most areas will reach into the 90s before the front moves through with the exception of portions of SE NM and the northern tier of counties in the Permian Basin.

After sundown, most convective activity should be to the south and east of the region and cold air advection brings lows to near normal for many in the 50s north of I-10 and in the 60s generally to the south. The Davis Mountains stay cooler. Strong winds behind the front will make for difficult travel conditions across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. For this, a High Wind Warning has been issued with this forecast package. Post frontal winds decrease by Monday morning as surface high pressure builds in across Texas. Daytime highs end up in the low to mid 80s for most with low 90s down across the Rio Grande.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Cold air advection continues behind the front Monday morning due to surface high pressure located over the Southern Plains, filtering in cooler air. By Monday afternoon, winds become easterly creating upslope flow as the area of high pressure shifts to the east. This yields afternoon highs in the 80s for most, except 70s in the higher terrain and 90s in some spots along the Rio Grande. Temperatures begin to climb Tuesday as long-range ensemble guidance shows increasing heights associated with an upper-level ridge. Temperatures top out into the mid-to-upper 90s by mid-to-late next week as the ridge axis moves over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. However, cluster analysis depicts the upper-level ridge breaking down by the latter half of the week, allowing for a couple of shortwaves to move overhead. This would yield cooler temperatures than what is currently forecast and possibly bring chances of rain. Though this would depend on moisture quality and exact track of the shortwaves. With that said, there is uncertainty in how hot tempertures will get late next week and trends will need to continue to be monitored. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions in place at all terminals. Winds pick up behind a cold front this morning and remain northerly with gusts up to 30kts through much of the afternoon. Isolated storms possible this afternoon, but confidence surrounding impacts remains too low to include with latest issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 91 56 80 58 / 30 10 0 0 Carlsbad 87 56 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 98 63 84 62 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 97 59 83 60 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 81 56 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 82 51 81 55 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 91 50 80 48 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 57 82 59 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 91 57 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 92 57 83 59 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.