textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Rain chances increase tonight and into the weekend. The best chances of measurable rainfall are over southeast New Mexico/the Permian Basin during the Friday night through Saturday afternoon timeframe.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight into early Friday morning. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

- Freezing temperatures are possible across much of the area Sunday morning, with the chance of a rain/snow mix in the Guadalupes and central/northern Lea County New Mexico. Impacts to travel are not expected.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A rinse and repeat weather pattern heading into tonight. Surface low pressure is expected to develop once again across southern Texas, supplying more moisture return across the eastern half of the forecast area. A shortwave trough also moves over the region providing lift. Both of these ingredients will allow the potential for measurable rainfall across southeastern New Mexico (0.05-0.40") and a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin. High resolution guidance depicts storms developing over these areas around midnight tonight lasting through the early morning hours. Forecast soundings and hodographs support an elevated multicellular to discrete convective mode given straight wind profiles and high shear coinciding with modest elevated MU CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg). HREF and other deterministic guidance have PWATs at least 0.3 inches higher than normal for this time of year per SPC sounding climatology. The higher than normal PWATs indicate heavy rainfall, especially with the more stronger storms. These storms are anticipated to move off to the northeast very quickly which will mitigate a flash flood threat. If training of thunderstorms does occur over the same areas, this may result in some areas to flood. The main threats for the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds with these storms being confined over the eastern Permian Basin.

The mid-level longwave trough progresses more eastward going into Friday. Scattered rain showers and storms continue during the afternoon over some portions of the region. These storms are anticipated to be general to at most sub-severe (over eastern Permian Basin). Since rain showers will be convective and scattered in nature, rainfall accumulation will be hard to pinpoint across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Therefore, not all areas will see precipitation. High temperatures are forecasted to be around 10 degrees cooler than normal, thanks to the morning rain and cloud coverage throughout the day.

The greatest chances of rain arrives Friday night into early Saturday morning. A cold front is forecasted to be approaching from the north, while a stationary front setup across far southern Texas. Light rain showers are anticipated during this timeframe, resulting in lighter accumulations. Low temperatures are forecasted to vary throughout the region with lower to mid 30s over the southeastern New Mexico Plains and the higher terrain, while 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. The cooling trend continues heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Very good rain chances continue into Saturday, but there is some concern for those wanting rain. The heaviest precipitation will occur ahead of the upper level low moving across the U.S./Mexico border (where moisture and lift is greatest) which happens through Friday night. By Saturday, the upper low arrives in West Texas and we get into the deformation zone of the upper low, finally transitioning to wrap around precip on the back side of the departing low. Precipitable water values (PWATs) steadily decrease from a high of near 1" Friday night to only 1/4" by Saturday night as the deeper Gulf rich air pushes east and we get drier air advecting in from west of the low. Therefore despite high rainfall chances, rainfall amounts will decrease as the day goes on and heavier showers and storms will transition to light rain. Rain chances end pretty quickly Saturday night as the upper low exits to the east. There is a chance for a rain and snow mix in southeastern New Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis mountains though little if any accumulations are expected. Warm ground temperatures should prevent ice forming on roads despite expected lows Sunday morning near freezing.

Temperatures cool down Saturday due to a strong, late season cold front as well as abundant clouds and rain. Highs will mainly be in the 40s and 50s with only some 60s and 70s along the Rio Grande. Skies clear Sunday and continued northerly winds keep cool air advecting in for another day keeping temps in the 50s and 60s. Broad upper level ridging develops next week creating a warming trend that sends temps back above normal with highs getting back to the 80s.

Hennig

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions are on tap this early this evening. However, a disturbance rolling in tonight will kick off some shower/storm activity after midnight, bringing lower ceilings. Many locations look to drop to MVFR conditions late tonight. At the moment, KHOB and KCNM have better rain chances, but KMAF may also see a shower or two. Otherwise, winds look to be generally out of the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 48 60 43 51 / 70 50 80 90 Carlsbad 46 55 38 44 / 60 70 60 90 Dryden 56 76 51 65 / 50 10 70 60 Fort Stockton 51 67 45 54 / 50 20 70 70 Guadalupe Pass 43 50 35 39 / 50 70 40 70 Hobbs 44 56 35 46 / 70 60 70 100 Marfa 45 66 38 51 / 20 20 50 60 Midland Intl Airport 49 61 43 50 / 60 30 80 80 Odessa 49 61 44 49 / 60 30 80 80 Wink 49 63 42 51 / 50 50 70 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.