textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Another upper-level storm system will bring medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms for most areas late Friday into Saturday.

- A few storms may become strong, especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats for the strongest storms will be quarter size hail and heavy rainfall. The flash flood threat remains very low.

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 112 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through the Bay Area and well off the coast of Baja. This feature is shunting the upper ridge east, the axis of which is now over central Texas, and will continue pushing east today.

As such, surface winds, albeit light, have veered back to return flow, which will assist in increasing thicknesses today, resulting in a nice thermal rebound as highs top out ~ 10-15 F above climatology.

Tonight, a fetch of mid/high cloud will increase in southwest flow aloft, and a 20-25 kt LLJ will advect 50+ F dewpoints up the lower Trans Pecos and into the Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains. The net effect of all this will be to retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight lows ~ 15-20 F above normal.

Friday, the upper trough moves onshore, w/the LREF putting it over the northern Gulf of California by 00Z Saturday. Ahead of this, a weak Pac front will push in from the west, shaving 2-3 F off afternoon highs. However, temperatures will increase enough for some destabilization ahead of the trough, with a weak cap and a dryline attempting to sharpen up mid-CWA during the afternoon. This will result in increasing chances of convection, mainly during the afternoon. Chances will only increase w/increased lift as the trough approaches. CAMs increase mid-lvl lapse rates to 7C/km or higher, especially over the lower Trans Pecos, so a little marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. We'll leave mention of this out of the grids Friday, as the main event looks to be Friday night. Another thing to watch will be a potential record PWAT. NAM buffer soundings increase KMAF pwat to 1.23" by 00Z Saturday, when climatology pegs the 100th percentile at 0.86", and the daily record at 0.94". So with any luck, we'll get more rain than hail out of this event. Stay tuned...

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Rain chances quickly ramp up Friday night from southeastern New Mexico, to the Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin. Models indicate scattered showers quickly coalesce into a line and move across the northeastern half of the CWA. Widespread rainfall amounts of up to one half of an inch will be possible north of I-10 with isolated higher amounts mixed in. SPC has us in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat so will keep an eye on this. Storm training could also create a very localized flooding threat, particularly in the northern Permian Basin but as with the severe weather this risk is marginal.

Rain moves east of the area during the day on Saturday yielding clearing skies and highs slightly cooler due to the rainfall. Surface low pressure develops in the South Plains and TX Panhandle bringing us windy conditions. A cold front moving through Saturday night causes winds to drop off and shift from the north keeping highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Broad ridging/zonal flow develops early next week causing temperatures to warm above normal as highs reach well into the 70s through Wednesday. An upper level trough moves into the western United States to end the forecast period late next week. Currently it appears the trough will remain too far north to provide us a chance for rainfall. It could bring us windy conditions which would not be unusual for this time of year.

Hennig

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 77 52 75 50 / 0 0 40 90 Carlsbad 75 49 67 46 / 0 0 60 80 Dryden 78 54 78 55 / 0 0 10 60 Fort Stockton 79 55 77 52 / 0 0 20 80 Guadalupe Pass 66 51 62 42 / 0 0 60 70 Hobbs 75 46 70 45 / 0 0 60 90 Marfa 73 44 71 39 / 0 0 30 70 Midland Intl Airport 76 54 74 50 / 0 0 40 90 Odessa 75 53 73 50 / 0 0 50 90 Wink 75 49 72 48 / 0 0 50 90

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.