textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 - Showers and storms become more numerous in coverage tonight through Tuesday with the approach of an upper level system. A few storms may become severe. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall. - Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

An active and stormy stretch is coming up to start the week. A closed upper low over the Great Plains developing east while another similar disturbance develops southeast from the Pacific NW and Great Basin will create a variable pattern for showers/storms rippling from west to east in flow aloft, concentrating forcing for ascent and deep moisture convergence. At the surface, a diffuse dryline will oscillate over western into central parts of the area, separating more humid air to the east characterized by dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F from drier air characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 40s F to the west. Showers/storms that form today as daytime heating combines with cooler air aloft and shear from the disturbance and troughed flow are forecast to spread from west to east later this afternoon/evening into the overnight. The SPC has only the westernmost parts of the area in a MRGL risk. The main risk in stronger shower/storms will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, mainly in low-lying and poor drainage regions and the slopes of higher terrain. However, a threat of damaging winds will also be present given shear for organization and longevity of updrafts in storms along with a well-mixed environment supporting outflow-driven storms. Some hail also cannot be ruled out. Highs today rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s F while lows settle into the 60s F, 50s F western higher terrain into much of the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) is forecast to be a more active day in terms of hazardous weather. 45% to 65% shower/storm chances will linger early Tuesday morning through the day from along and northeast of the Guadalupes into Davis Mountains as disturbances aloft essentially continuously ripple through troughing that is slow to depart the region, with highest rain chances over the Permian Basin. SPC has the Permian Basin into Terrell County in a SLGT risk area and the rest of the area except for far westernmost portions. High-res CAMs are depicting more long-lived discrete and linear storm modes than this afternoon, as an environment of 30 to 40 knot of effective shear and CAPE 1000-2000 J/kg provides the shear and instability for long-lived rotating updrafts. 0-3km SRH will increase with a low-level jet in the evening over the Permian Basin prior to storms exiting the area, increasing the threat of damaging convective winds with a tornado or two in the most rapidly intensifying and/or sheared storms. Meanwhile, dendritic growth zone co-located with region of maximum vertical velocity and inverted-V profiles at the surface as depicted on model forecast soundings will keep a risk of damaging winds and hail in the forecast. There is a medium 35% to 45% chance of rainfall up to at least 1" where heaviest showers/storms occur, with a continued risk of flash flooding. Highs will only rise into the 70s and 80s F for much of the area as more widespread clouds and evaporational cooling limit how warm temperatures get during the day. Storms move out of the area by late evening as rain chances taper off from west to east and decrease to the 20% to 30% range over the eastern Permian Basin tomorrow night, lows will fall into the lower 50s to lower 60s F range due to the cooler daytime temperatures. The cooler and stormy pattern will be short-lived as a warmer, drier, and more stable weather pattern returns to the area beginning Wednesday. More details on this in the Long Term Discussion.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will persist across eastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday night as the upper-level shortwave trough progresses eastward. By early Wednesday morning, most storms will transition east of the region ending the threat of localized flash flooding. A weak upper-level ridge builds over far west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday afternoon inducing much drier conditions. Shortwave impulses within the flow aloft will provide additional low isolated (10-20%) storm chances across the eastern Permian Basin late afternoon into the early evening. High temperatures are expected to range from low to upper 80s for most locations. Thursday and Friday, the upper-level ridge strengthens over the region. This will supply warmer high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge axis may translate over our area and bring a low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms across far southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos Friday afternoon through the evening. By the weekend, cluster analysis shows southwesterly flow aloft taking shape once again as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. This pattern looks to bring more isolated to scattered showers/storms along with slightly cooler temperatures in the 80s to low 90s Saturday through Monday across the region.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions at terminals through 23Z-02Z, with increasing chances of showers/storms at terminals over the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau thereafter, with MVFR or lower conditions in showers/storms. Main impact of showers/storms at terminals will be heavy rain and lightning, and in the strongest storms, the additional threat of damaging winds and some hail. Southeast winds forecast for terminals, with stronger and more variable winds in showers/storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 89 64 79 60 / 0 10 80 80 Carlsbad 94 60 79 57 / 10 90 60 10 Dryden 92 68 87 65 / 0 20 60 30 Fort Stockton 92 64 82 60 / 0 50 80 10 Guadalupe Pass 84 58 74 56 / 40 70 50 10 Hobbs 90 59 74 55 / 10 70 70 30 Marfa 88 52 80 49 / 0 60 50 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 64 77 60 / 0 30 80 50 Odessa 89 64 76 60 / 0 40 80 40 Wink 92 63 79 59 / 0 60 80 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.