textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions continue over southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas through this evening, prompting a Red Flag Warning. - Increased rain chances Wednesday through Friday nearly areawide. Monitoring threat for localized flash flooding.

- Warm and dry conditions look to return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

IR satellite imagery early this morning indicates an increase in upper-level moisture generating scattered to broken middle to high cloud cover. A few showers are present on radar across Brewster and Pecos counties moving quickly northeast and redeveloping downwind near the Big Bend, with more persistent showers/storms over the northeast Permian Basin also moving quickly to the northeast. We do not expect widespread severe weather with these storms at this time.

Warm and dry weather gives way to cooler weather with low to medium (25% to 35%) rain chances tomorrow evening through tomorrow night over southeastern parts of the area. Highs today again rise into the upper 80s to mid to upper 90s F, with the dryline developing far enough southeast through the day to keep all but Terrell County and southeasternmost Permian Basin in a region of 35F or less dew point temperatures. Therefore, we can expect warm and dry conditions today. Westerly downsloping winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, higher in the mountains, will again result in patchy blowing dust over the Guadalupes into adjacent foothills, but impacts are not expected to be as widespread as the past few days. Warm and dry weather will also lead to another day of near critical fire weather conditions (see Fire Weather Discussion). Lows once more fall into the 50s to mid 60s F tonight as scattered to broken high cloud cover limits overnight cooling and the dryline retrogrades west into central parts of the area, bringing higher dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture that limits overnight cooling farther west. Tomorrow, the cooling trend begins as the mid to upper ridge flattens out and allows a cold front to develop in from the north, with winds shifting to northerly. Highs only rise into the 80s to lower 90s F for most of the area as a result. Additionally, a subtle mid to upper disturbance with mountain wave signature rippling east over the Big Bend tomorrow afternoon increases lift and moisture aloft, inducing shower/storm formation in the afternoon and evening. Some high-res CAMs show no showers/storms at all and NBM QPF grids show little to only a few hundredths of an inch, so we are not expecting any flooding risk with any storms that develop. There is a continued 25% to 35% chance of lingering showers Wednesday night as more humid air characterized by dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s F persists behind the cold front and limits a sharper drop in overnight temperatures even with CAA. This will mean a continued 20 to 25 degree diurnal range, with lows falling into the lower 50s to lower 60s F. Even cooler temperatures and increased rain chances are forecast later this week. Read the Long Term Discussion below for more details.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In stark contrast to the beginning of the week, temperatures trend downward and rain chances upward during the latter half of the week. Overnight Wednesday, the surface high that pushed a cold front into the region earlier in the day drifts slightly east over the central Great Plains, while a surface low develops over eastern New Mexico. Easterly and southeasterly upslope flow shall be accompanied by moisture, allowing for low (10-30%) rain chances nearly areawide Wednesday night as temperatures cool into the 50s/60s.

Thursday morning, an upper level low approaches the coasts of SoCal and Baja California. Thursday into Friday, models depict this system progressing over the Desert Southwest and Northern Mexico. Moisture and lift increases ahead of the approaching system, allowing for rain chances to also trend upward throughout the day Thursday. By Thursday evening, medium to high (40-70%) PoPs span much of the region, with the best odds over the Permian Basin, areas near the Pecos River Valley in west Texas, and southeast New Mexico. Friday, rain chances begin to gradually taper down, largely diminishing by the evening. Ensembles continue to depict PWATs of 1-1.3" over the eastern half of our region Thursday through Friday morning, suggesting a potential for occasionally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. It's important to note that shower/storm development currently looks to be widely scattered in nature. Actual rainfall totals will depend on the track of the system itself, the exact timing/ location of storm development, and rainfall rates. Given the current uncertainty surrounding these variables, this system will warrant further monitoring as we head through the week. As it stands, the greatest potential for flash flooding would be over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Regardless of rainfall, lower heights, cloudy skies, and increased moisture send temperatures on a downward trend Thursday and Friday. Highs are progged to generally reach the 70s to low 80s Thursday, then 50s to 60s on Friday (70s and 80s in our southernmost counties).

Surface high pressure begins to set in over Texas Saturday, bringing rain chances to an end. Behind the departing storm system, upper ridging builds overhead early next week and temperatures rebound closer to normal by Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to mainly prevail through the period. Gusty southwesterly/westerly winds last through early this evening. Occasional gusts up to 30 kts may occur especially at CNM, HOB, and MAF during the afternoon. A cold front is anticipated to pass through the region overnight tonight shifting winds to the northeast and eventually east. CIGs are expected to lower as the front passes through. Opted to not include CIGs below 3000ft at MAF and HOB given high uncertainty in this occurring.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon into early this evening as westerly winds increase with gusts to around 30 to 35 mph across portions of SE NM. Highs shall reach the upper 80s to low 90s and combine with breezy conditions, critical RHs (<15%), and ERCs above the 75th percentile. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and early this evening across SE NM, the northern Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills/plains. Wednesday, an upper level low approaches and eventually moves overhead by Friday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions nearly areawide. Wetting rains will be possible Wednesday night through Friday evening along with overall higher RHs and recoveries that should, in the near term, improve the fuel landscape through this coming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 96 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 20 Carlsbad 92 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 99 72 94 67 / 0 0 20 30 Fort Stockton 96 67 92 64 / 0 0 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 83 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 90 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 20 Marfa 88 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 95 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 94 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 96 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Martin- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.