textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures will continue across the region through the week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

- Dry weather will continue over most of the area today and Tuesday, except for isolated (10-20%) afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Big Bend, and Stockton Plateau.

- Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially near the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

An upper level ridge spans from the Desert Southwest toward the central and southern Plains. Subsidence below the ridge keeps hot and mostly dry conditions in the forecast through the Short Term period. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will top out a couple of degrees over today's. Expect highs generally in the upper 90s to 100s. Triple digit heat looks to overlay much of SE NM, the Upper Trans Pecos, and portions of the western and northeastern Permian Basin. The hottest conditions are forecast along the river valleys, especially along the Rio Grande, where highs may reach up to 107 degrees. Although any Heat Advisory criteria looks to be avoided, prolonged exposure to hot conditions can still be hazardous. It is advised to take precautions to stay cool and hydrated, especially during the heat of the day. Overnight lows tonight and Tuesday night settle in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The ridge promotes dry conditions for most. However, upslope flow and a shortwave moving along the southeastern edge of the ridge shall aid in the development of a few isolated showers/storms. The favored area of development will be in the in the vicinity of the higher terrain west of the Pecos River, mainly near the Davis Mountains. Showers are currently percolating near Fort Stockton and the Davis'. Given a similar set up Tuesday afternoon, low (<20%) rain chances shall again overlay the Davis Mountains, the Marfa and Stockton Plateaus, and the Big Bend. Some of these storms may become strong both today and Tuesday, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The upper-level ridge shifts eastward towards the southeastern CONUS by midweek through the end of the week. West Texas and southeast New Mexico end up on the western periphery of this ridge. As a result, temperatures gradually tick down after Wednesday (when highs near or above 100 degrees will be common). By the end of the week, highs in the mid-to-upper 90s become more widespread, and temperatures at or above 100 degrees become more confined to the river valleys. Meanwhile, deep-layer moisture increases across the area, with PWATs nearing the 90th percentile (1.25-1.50 inches). This, coupled with passing disturbances in the upper-level flow, leads to increasing rain chances for western portions of the area during the latter part of the week. As per usual, the best chances will be in/near the Davis Mountains (30-60%), with lower chances across the western Permian Basin and Upper Trans-Pecos (10-30%). Heavy rain may lead to localized flash flooding, and some storms may produce strong winds during this timeframe. Eastern portions of the area look to remain mostly dry thanks to their relative proximity to the ridge. By the weekend, the ridge begins to expand, which results in rain chances becoming more confined to the higher terrain and getting pushed towards our westernmost counties.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in generally light return flow, with a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a cu field late morning Tuesday, w/bases ~ 4.5-6 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 103 74 103 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 100 75 100 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 68 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 70 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 93 65 93 / 10 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.