textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Hazardous heat continues across the westernmost portions of the region, with highs largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mid to upper ridging persists over the High Plains mid-week suppressing more widespread precipitation chances, even while a weak, quasi-stationary front over the southern TX Panhandle and lee troughing from the SE NM plains into W TX provide additional near surface lift for a chance of initiation of afternoon/evening storms. Absence of widespread rain chances from large scale sinking motion and proximity of ridging will allow 95F-100F highs, 100F-105F highs in the low lands, and 105F-110F highs along the Pecos river into Upper Trans Pecos to occur today. Heat indices remain above hazardous heat criteria southwest of the Pecos River and west of the Permian Basin and Terrell County, so a Heat Advisory remains in effect for regions west of the central Permian Basin and Terrell County and south of northern Lea County from this afternoon through early evening. Make sure to practice proper heat safety precautions.

In addition to the heat, a risk of isolated strong storms is again in the forecast, with southerly winds developing later in the day. VIS/IR and WV imagery late this morning show weak west/northwest steering flow on the eastern edge of the core of the ridge over the northern MX plateau into Four Corners region. Skirting the edge of the ridging, disturbances aloft will focus moisture and enhanced northwest winds, as well as lift for ascent beneath. SPC has outlooked the TX South Plains and east-central NM in a MRGL risk today, with main threats being damaging winds and large hail. However, while higher rain chances and greater storm coverage are forecast north of the forecast area, 10%-15% 1 hr PoPs and 20%-30% 3 hr PoPs this afternoon/evening over the SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos indicate potential for strong to severe storms to extend down into these regions as well. Model forecast soundings with DCAPE above 1000 J/kg and dew point depressions above 20F/low RH in the lower troposphere are supportive of damaging winds and large hail should storms develop. However, dry air potentially mixing out through the depth of the very warm boundary layer and capping in the low to mid-levels from dry air also mean there is still a potential for little to no storms to develop anywhere across the region. Rainfall totals therefore continue to be light (at most a few tenths of an inch) and no major flooding is expected. Any major storms are expected to subside with loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range, 65-70F range higher elevations, and 75F-80F from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend as these 15 to 25 mph and higher southerly winds in a LLJ to the east of lee troughing limit overnight cooling.

Highs tomorrow are expected to be largely the same as today, so we are considering another Heat Advisory from the afternoon through evening tomorrow. Risk of strong storms however will not be as high as today. Core ridging will give way to more uniformly weak west/northwest flow aloft above south/southeast winds east of lee troughing over SE NM Plains into Culberson County. Still, continuing weak frictional convergence and focusing of moisture near the quasi- stationary front and lee troughing will lead to 20%-30% PoPs during the afternoon/evening, so lightning and damaging winds in stronger storms cannot be ruled out considering DCAPE will remain above 1000 J/kg with steep lapse rates up to freezing level. Outside of storms, a sharpening moisture gradient west-east along lee troughing once again developing in the afternoon will allow 15 to 25 mph and higher winds to the east of lee troughing: continuing overnight within a LLJ. Lows Thursday night will fall to similar levels as Wednesday night if not a few degrees warmer with these southerly winds in the LLJ again limiting overnight cooling. Heat safety precautions will need to be taken each day continuing from the end of the week into this weekend, before slightly cooler temperatures below the triple digits return for most regions north of the Rio Grande by early next week. More details on the progression of this weather pattern can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

From Friday through through the weekend, the pattern does not change significantly. Temperatures stay well above normal with much of the area seeing highs between 100-105F. The higher elevations remain the cool spots as highs sit just under 100F. Heat products of some kind will likely be necessary for these days. Rain chances will hold on mainly across the Davis Mountains and portions of Big Bend, but will be isolated to scattered in nature. Some areas may see locally heavy rain, but coverage will be quite low. By Monday, the upper level ridge that will have kept the warmth overhead begins to weaken slightly and an upper low churns across the Western US. Long range guidance is suggesting that rain chances spread across the western half of the CWA, but remain somewhat low (10-40%). Temperatures from Monday onward move closer to normal with many locations reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows stay just above normal in the low to mid 70s.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

TS has diminished across the area and should not impact any terminals. VFR conditions with modest and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 102 75 104 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 105 74 104 / 20 0 20 10 Dryden 73 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 104 74 104 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 72 97 72 95 / 20 0 20 10 Hobbs 69 103 71 103 / 30 10 20 10 Marfa 64 98 66 97 / 0 10 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 73 101 74 102 / 20 0 20 0 Odessa 73 101 74 102 / 20 0 20 10 Wink 73 106 75 105 / 20 0 20 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.