textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe, particularly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.

- Storms become more isolated in nature on Sunday before increasing again during the early to middle part of next week ahead of the next approaching system. A few storms could become strong to severe with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Current mesoanalysis depicts an upper-level shortwave trough approaching our area. Ahead of this trough, a few showers and thunderstorms developed this morning over the higher terrain from the Davis Mountains into the Big Bend. Currently, additional showers and thunderstorm are developing and will soon expand into the Lower Trans-Pecos and the central/eastern Permian Basin, continuing through the rest of the afternoon into this evening. While there is still ample instability across these areas (MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg), deep-layer shear looks a bit less impressive than in previous days (0-6 km shear mainly between 15-25 kts). Downdraft CAPE also tends to be between 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. All that being said, a few storms may become strong to severe, posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Localized flash flooding will be an additional concern, especially considering the somewhat slow storm motion observed so far today. Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for much of the area, with overnight lows dropping down into the 50s and low 60s. On Sunday, weak ridging sets up over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This results in lower shower and thunderstorm chances overall tomorrow. However, upsloping easterly/southeasterly winds will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in/near the higher terrain in our western zones, particularly around the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon. A storm or two may become strong, but the severe threat looks lower overall. Highs and lows end up similar to today's.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Weak upper-level ridging will build across much of west Texas on Monday before shifting to our east by Monday evening as the next upper-level trough begins to deepen over the western CONUS. A shortwave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system will translate across far west Texas into southern New Mexico MOnday afternoon and evening and then across much of the rest of our forecast area by late Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are forecast to develop ahead of this feature over areas west of the Pecos River Monday afternoon, with scattered to numerous (mainly 30-70% chances) spreading into much of the forecast area Monday evening through late Monday night. A few storms could be strong with locally heavy rainfall again Monday evening/night. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist into Tuesday, with additional embedded shortwave impulses providing ascent in the moist/unstable airmass to aid in the continued development of scattered to numerous (generally 30-70%) thunderstorms over most areas along and east of the mountains during the day Tuesday. Moderate instability and a slight increase in deep-layer shear may favor organized convection on Tuesday afternoon and evening, and we will have to monitor for the potential for another round of strong to severe storms, along with locally heavy rainfall over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where precipitable water values may range between 1" and 1.25". Temperatures on Monday will average near normal with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most. Slightly cooler temperatures return for Tuesday with the increased moisture and rain chances.

Upper-level ridging will amplify over west Texas and southeast New Mexico during the middle to latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible on Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the eastern Permian Basin. Storm coverage should become more isolated in nature Thursday into Friday with the building ridge aloft. Temperatures warm back up to slightly above normal readings in the lower to mid 90s over the bulk of our CWA late this week, with a few readings along the Rio Grande topping out in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

TS has been affecting MAF the past several hours and will be in the vicinity a little longer before finally dissipating and moving east. Erratic wind speeds and direction will then settle on a southeasterly direction at around 10KTS. All other TAF sites should be VFR and dry with southeasterly winds.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 61 87 63 88 / 40 0 10 0 Carlsbad 60 94 62 93 / 0 20 0 10 Dryden 65 90 65 90 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 61 91 63 91 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 61 84 / 0 20 0 40 Hobbs 57 90 59 90 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 51 87 51 87 / 0 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 62 88 63 88 / 20 0 0 0 Odessa 62 88 64 89 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 62 92 63 92 / 0 10 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.