textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- A gradual warming trend begins today, and continues into next weekend. - Rain chances taper off to the south today and tonight, and will be slim-to-none through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge centered over Utah/Arizona, and another centered over the Gulf Coast states, resulting in a shear zone over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This, as well as a cold front, brrrrought the coolest temperatures yet of the fall to the area yesterday, as well as some beneficial wetting rains. Over the next 24 hours, the western ridge is forecast to begin building east, shunting the shear zone to the ENE as well. As the remnants of the cold front continue sagging south, so too will convective chances, mainly -SHRA. Skies should begin scattering out NW-SE, signaling the beginning of a gradual warmup which will continue beyond the extended forecast. Therefore today, like yesterday, will be the coolest day this forecast, although today's highs will be only ~ 5-7 F below climatology, which will still mean highs in the 70s most locations. Despite the dwindling rain chances today, today will be the wettest day of the rest of the forecast as well.

Tonight, showers keep tapering off to the south, and skies begin to scatter out. This, along w/the absence of a LLJ, will allow overnight minimums to cool to an average of 5 F above normal, putting most locations in the 50s.

Sunday, the western ridge builds east to the Four Corners, shoving the shear zone into east Texas. As a result, increasing thicknesses as the ridge moves in will add around 5 F to today's highs. Isolated showers will be possible south of I-10.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The extended forecast remains rather pedestrian, as most of the noteworthy changes are into the short term. By Monday afternoon, the upper ridge is forecast to develop even farther east, and this will result in a continuing increase in thicknesses/temperatures into next weekend, when highs will top out some ~ 7-9 F above normal. Despite this, for those who prefer cooler weather, highs will only be in the 80s most locations. 90s are becoming more and more elusive by the day. In mostly dry, northwesterly flow aloft, rain chances in the extended look slim-to- none.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs will continue all terminals through around 18Z or so, before light surface winds veer to east, scattering out skies to VFR by 21Z. _SHRA is possible, but chances are diminishing, and too low/random for a mention attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 59 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 56 79 59 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 77 62 79 62 / 40 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 74 57 78 58 / 20 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 53 69 56 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 74 55 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 71 51 71 52 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 60 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 77 61 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.