textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions continue over southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas through this evening and expected again Tuesday afternoon. - Increased rain chances Wednesday through Friday nearly areawide. Monitoring threat for localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Current satellite imagery and 17Z 500mb RAP analysis shows southwesterly flow aloft over the region accompanied by a 60kt jet across New Mexico. At the surface, a low pressure system continues to move northeast towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. As a result, breezy westerly winds and more warmer than normal temperatures (80s to low 90s regionwide) are expected. Breezy winds coinciding with very dry conditions yield near-critical fire weather concerns across southeast New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains, and the eastern Culberson County Plains during the afternoon. Outdoor burning of any kind is discouraged over these areas. Tonight, high cloud cover develops across much of the region. This will keep warm low temperatures in the 60s to low 70s over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region. Meanwhile, lows will range in the 50s across southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe Mountains.

Warmer and similar windy conditions are in store tomorrow. The dryline stays further east supplying enhanced mixing across the region. A low-level thermal ridge also develops across portions of west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This brings near-critical fire weather conditions once again across portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s for most locations, with the exception of some spots along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley in the upper 90s to low 100s. Tuesday night, a cold front approaches from the north which looks to provide cooler temperatures for areas north of Interstate 10 Wednesday afternoon. See the long term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Wednesday sees the pattern begin to shift as an upper level low begins to approach from the west. A cold front is moved through the area and northerly to northeasterly flow at the surface brings in cooler air and some moisture from the east. Cloud cover and CAA keep highs in the 80s for many with 90s remaining near and south of I-10. Medium to long range guidance continue to show medium to high (40- 70%) rain chances mainly across the Permian Basin and into SE NM. Rain chances decrease further to the south and west of the Pecos River Valley. Similar to the last few systems that have brought some measurable precipitation to the region, ensembles continue to show a range of PWAT values near the daily record for Thursday and Friday between an inch to 1.3".

While PoPs are high and generally widespread, rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be scattered and intermittent in nature. Light to moderate rain will mainly be seen with brief bouts of heavy rain in more organized convection. The threat for localized flash flooding will need to be monitored. Rain amounts, however, remain far more uncertain as it will depend on where the best forcing ends up based on the track of the upper low moving into the area. Expect generally higher amounts across the Permian Basin and SE NM, with diminishing amounts as you move further south and west of the Pecos River Valley. Overall rain chances decrease by late Friday.

Temperatures during the latter part of the week gradually fall well below normal for late April and early May. By Friday, highs in the 60s will be seen for most with 70s and 80s near the Rio Grande. Lows dip into the 40s nearly areawide Saturday morning with 60s for highs once again that afternoon. Warmth begins to return on Sunday with highs in the 70s.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty westerly winds are in store this afternoon through early evening at most terminals. Occasional gusts up to 30-35 kts may occur especially at CNM, HOB, and MAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Near critical to locally critical fire weather conditions are on track this afternoon as winds increase with gusts to around 30 mph across portions of SE NM. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s combine with the breezy conditions and critical RHs (<15%). A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect for this afternoon for those conditions. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon with slightly lower minimum RHs and afternoon highs. For this, another RFD will likely be needed. Beyond Tuesday, an upper level low approaches on Wednesday and moves overhead by Friday bringing cooler and wetter conditions nearly areawide. Wetting rains will be possible Wednesday night through Friday evening along with overall higher RHs and recoveries that should, in the near term, improve the fuel landscape through this coming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 66 95 58 79 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 57 91 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 99 72 96 / 20 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 68 96 67 92 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 90 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 55 87 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 66 93 61 84 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 66 92 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 60 94 61 89 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.