textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, but a gradual cooling trend develops especially during the latter half of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances also increase again over portions of southeast New Mexico this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Current water vapor imagery and mesoscale analysis depict an upper- level ridge extended across the Great Plains towards the Ark-La-Tex region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough is currently moving across northwestern portions of the CONUS. This trough will continue to push the ridge towards the southeastern CONUS, and as a result heights will tick down across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. This causes temperatures to decrease a degree or two relative to yesterday. Nevertheless, highs still top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, with 100s mainly confined to the river valleys. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend across western portions of the area. This feature will foster breezy conditions across the region (gusts between 20-30 mph will be commonplace this afternoon and evening, with some locally higher gusts). The surface trough, along with pulses rounding the western periphery of the ridge, will also yield isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Similar to yesterday, the best chances (20-30%) will be for portions of southeast New Mexico and locations in/near the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos River. Storms that do develop may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms will gradually decrease in coverage overnight through early Tuesday morning.

A low-level jet helps keep winds breezy overnight, so lows Tuesday morning remain in the low-to-mid 70s for most locations. Highs tick up a degree or two Tuesday afternoon as heights increase slightly over our area (temperatures still remain in the mid-to-upper 90s for most). Rain chances become a bit more widespread Tuesday, but the best chances (30-60%) will still be found across the western half of the area Tuesday afternoon going into Tuesday night. That being said, a few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to make their way into westernmost portions of the Permian Basin. Similar to Monday, strong thunderstorm winds and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding will be the main concerns.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

As stated in the Short Term discussion, current water vapor imagery and latest upper air analysis shows the upper-level ridge axis extending from the Missouri River Valley to the Ark-La-Tex region. Meanwhile, an upper-level low associated with a trough is located over the Pacific Northwest. Medium to long-range models show the ridge shifting a little farther east each day as the upper-low ejects into the Northern Plains. This is consistent with expectations as height rises are observed in the southeastern CONUS and height falls ahead of the trough (in addition to a strong westerly 50-55 kt jet at its base). Despite the eastward displacement of the ridge, our forecast area remains on its far western fringes. This allows for continued above normal temperatures and a gradual cool-down by a degree or two each day this week. Increasing moisture in addition to upslope flow and disturbances rounding the western edge of the ridge yields daily chances (generally 20-50%, up to 60%) of showers/storms across the western higher terrain and southeast New Mexico.

Long-range model guidance is trying to signal a break in the weather pattern by next weekend, bringing a broad upper trough into our region. This would mean cooler temperatures and possibly more widespread rain chances. However, there is significant disagreement in how far south the trough digs and the placement of a cold front. Ensemble box and whisker plots depict this with large spread in temperature and precipitation fields, providing us with low confidence in specific details at this time. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Southeasterly to southerly winds become gusty again later this morning. Gusts between 20-25 kts will be commonplace, with some gusts around 30 kts through the day. Showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon. Most will remain west of TAF sites, but a couple may develop near CNM (a PROB30 may be necessary with the next TAF update).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 100 73 100 70 / 10 20 30 60 Dryden 99 76 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 98 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 90 69 89 67 / 10 20 40 70 Hobbs 97 72 98 70 / 0 10 20 50 Marfa 90 63 90 62 / 10 0 30 50 Midland Intl Airport 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 20 Odessa 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 10 20 Wink 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 20 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.