textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire weather conditions is in effect through 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for Southeast New Mexico and Gaines County. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for Southeast New Mexico, most of West Texas to the south, and Gaines County.

- A High Wind Watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind advisories are possible on the adjacent plains. Additional episodes of high winds are possible Friday through Tuesday and beyond.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the west coast at the Oregon/California border, nudging the upper ridge through the central CONUS toward the MS Valley. Closer to home, surface observations and satellite shows stratus redeveloping over the east. A little fog will be possible as well. However, hi-res models are in agreement in this not hanging around today as long as it did yesterday, mainly due to surface winds veering to the southwest and increasing in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. The advent of these winds will cause some fire wx concerns later today over Southeast New Mexico. See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details. Absent a persistent stratus deck today, combined with a downslope warming component, thicknesses will increase considerably this afternoon, resulting in highs approaching 10 F above climatology.

Tonight, a 35 kt LLJ will redevelop, advecting rich Gulf moisture into the region. This mixing will combine with increased dewpoints to add 2-3 F to this morning's minimums, keeping lows ~ 10 F above normal.

Thursday, the west coast trough ejects up into Canada, increasing westerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and generating a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes and high winds by early afternoon. We've issued a High Wind Watch for the afternoon/evening to cover this. A Wind Advisory may need to be issued later for at least the Culberson County plains. Considering dry soils out that way, BLDU is a given. These increased westerlies will keep highs Thursday afternoon as warm as today's, if not a degree or two warmer.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The extended forecast, as depicted by the LREF, will be a conveyor belt of upper troughs, with a secondary trough making landfall on the west coast near the Bay Area Friday evening, followed by a tertiary trough along the same path making landfall Tuesday afternoon. The net effect of this will be warm and dry conditions for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with strong westerly flow aloft resulting in possible high winds off and on through the Guadalupes/Delawares through at least next Wednesday night. This will keep highs each day averaging in the neighborhood of ~ 10 F above normal through at least Sunday, after which the secondary trough will drop a Pac front through the region and shave 3-4 F off highs Monday/Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Stratus affecting mainly KMAF and KHOB should scatter out by mid- morning, giving way to a modest cu field, w/bases ~ 4.5 - 8 kft AGL. Light winds will veer to southwest today, then back to south overnight as a 35 kt LLJ develops.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Given the drying/warming trend, attention now must necessarily turn to fire weather. While radar estimates suggest up to 2.60" fell in the area over the past few days, the bulk of where it fell (east) is not coincident with where the most critical fire wx is anticipated over the next week (west). Should higher 20-ft winds develop over the next week, as mentioned above, which would mean NOT the NBM, then critical fire wx conditions will be concentrated over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas beginning today, and peaking over the weekend, mostly likely Sunday.

Today, 20-ft winds over the Guadalupes don't look as strong/widespread as they did 24-hrs ago, and as a result, RFTIs have decreased in both magnitude and area. Therefore, given what's expected over the next week, we feel today could be better handled by a RFD for elevated fire wx.

However, as noted above, 20-ft winds are set to increase substantially Thursday, combining with single-digit minimum relative humidity to yield widespread RFTI of 6-8 over the northwest FWA. This will combine w/ERCs increasing above the 75th percentile to put much of the area back into critical fire wx territory. Thus, we'll issue a Fire Wx Watch for much of the area Thursday.

Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern favors cumulative parameters through the weekend, so conditions will generally worsen and spread east and south each day through at least Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 90 63 91 59 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 91 59 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 87 64 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 61 92 62 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 80 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 90 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 83 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 63 90 60 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 89 63 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 92 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.