textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Strong winds expected over the Guadalupe Mountains Monday afternoon through evening. Avoid travel and secure any loose items outside if possible.

- Warmer than average temperatures begin to decrease mid-week, followed by a low (20% to 30%) chance of showers Wednesday into Thursday, and 10F to 20F cooler highs and lows beginning Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1252 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

The big picture we're seeing for this week is warmer than average temperatures to end the weekend and start the week, followed by a pattern change to cooler and then near to below average temperatures by the end of the week. VIS/IR satellite imagery today has depicted more mid to high level clouds than yesterday. This has occurred as mid to upper ridging has developed closer to the area, putting the area closer to the region of southerly return flow, which differs from how the region of north/northwest flow on the east side of the ridge was located over the area yesterday. As a result of increasing southerly winds and more moisture advection, dew point temperatures at the surface have also increased into the 40s F outside of the western higher terrain and into the 30s F for western higher terrain as was forecast. Strengthening lee troughing today will offset the increased moisture and high level clouds. Along with west/southwest breezy downsloping winds over the western higher terrain and much of Lea County into the Permian Basin, this all will allow highs to rise into the 70s F, 60s F higher elevations into most of SE NM plains, upper 70s to lower 80s F Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande basins, and lower to mid 80s F Big Bend. Tonight with loss of solar heating, southwest winds decrease for much of the area but remain breezy over the Guadalupes, as dew point temperatures remain in the 30s to lower to mid 40s F range amidst scattered high clouds. The increased boundary layer moisture and mechanical mixing of the stable nocturnal layer by winds will prevent lows from falling below 40 F. Instead, lows are forecast to stay in the mid 40s to mid 50s F range, around 5F to 10F warmer than Saturday night.

Ridging and accompanying large scale sinking motion persist, while westerly downsloping winds increase in high winds of a jet streak embedded in quasi-zonal zonal flow aloft ahead of a Pacific Southwest upper storm system. The result will be highs on Monday at least 5F warmer than today. Temperature - dew point temperature differences also remain in the 20F to 25F range in model forecast soundings, while lower atmosphere profiles remain near dry adiabatic. Despite these forecast soundings, NBM and numerical guidance for the Guadalupes showing winds 35 to 40 mph and gusts up to 45 to 60 mph, and ensembles depicting a medium to high (40% to 60%) probability of gusts greater than 35 mph, a High Wind Watch has not been issued for Monday afternoon through evening for the Guadalupes, due to uncertainty in how long these high winds will last. For now, just bumped up winds and gusts in the Guadalupes and Delawares for Monday. The increased west/southwest winds will still act to bring drier air in from the west and reduce dew point temperatures back down into the 20s and 30s F, while keeping a strengthening lee trough/dryline east of the area. With the stage set for more efficient overnight cooling from reduced boundary layer moisture Monday night and as winds decrease with loss of daytime heating, cooler lows are forecast Monday night. Lows decrease back into the 30s F for most of SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin and windward basins and foothills of the Marfa Plateau, falling into the lower 40s F range north of Rio Grande basins and lower to mid 50s F Rio Grande basins. The upper level storm system over the Pacific SW will begin to de-amplify and develop east into the Desert SW mid-week, breaking down the ridge and allowing a colder and drier air mass to move into the area by late week. Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1252 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Tuesday begins the slow southeast progression of a stationary boundary over the Front Range of the Rockies and TX Panhandle. Concurrently, a de-amplifying ridge over the western portion of the area into the Desert Sw and less large scale sinking and warming air results in highs up to 5F cooler than Monday for western higher terrain into SE NM plains. This will mean highs falling back into the 60s F for much of the SE NM plains and remaining in the 60s F for the higher elevations, while remaining in the 70s F for most of the Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau, and rising in the upper 70s to 80s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County. With continued westerly winds and dew point temperatures staying in the 20s to 30s F range, overnight lows similar to Monday night are forecast for Tuesday night. Temperatures remain similar to Tuesday for Wednesday, but with increased moisture and forcing for ascent in mid to upper levels upstream, precipitation chances increase from west to east through the day. The highest chances (20% to 30%) have stayed consistently over Culberson County into southern Permian Basin, while model forecast soundings continue to show very dry air at the surface characterized by 30F to 35F temperature dew point temperature differences, and NBM as well as ensembles show only a few hundredths of an inch rainfall accumulation. Therefore, no significant impacts from flooding or heavy rain are expected at this time. Lows Wednesday night are forecast to be similar in terms of temperature to previous nights if not a few degrees warmer over eastern regions (where dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture in latest runs continues to increase before Thursday afternoon), while highs Thursday continue their downward ~5F trek from the day as the region of increased lift and cooling of air in front of the cold front advances into the area and ridging continues to de- amplify.

Westerly winds and highs in the mid to upper 60s F, 50s F higher elevations, and 70s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County give way to lows falling near to below freezing for basins and foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern SE NM plains, with lower to mid 30s F in surrounding foothills and plains of Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian Basin, and lower to mid 40s F elsewhere. These up to 5F to 10F cooler than Wednesday night lows mark the unofficial start of the descent to cooler than average temperatures by the weekend. Current runs are still consistent with previous runs in showing the cold front finally clearing the area as winds shift to the northwest and CAA is unleashed. Highs fall back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s F range, lows near to below freezing north of the Rio Grande basins Friday night as a result. Following Friday night, next weekend settles into this more seasonable and cooler than average temperature pattern for highs and lows. For next weekend, NBM and ensembles are still showing non- zero precipitation probabilities and amounts for the area, respectively. However, current runs have backed away from timing of precipitation coinciding with below freezing temperatures, and an earlier timing of the cold front in more recent runs has resulted in a warming trend in lows back above freezing for the Rio Grande basins. We will have to watch to see how this changes, but for now the biggest impacts for the area this week into next weekend look to be increased cloud and rain chances Wednesday into Thursday and cooler, more seasonable - if not below average - temperatures by late week continuing into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 447 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours with abundant high cloud at times. S-SW flow will veer overnight to west, increasing and becoming gusty at most terminals by noon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 47 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 48 73 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 46 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 50 80 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 46 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 42 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 38 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 47 77 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 47 76 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 44 77 40 72 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.