textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions return tomorrow (Wednesday) lasting through the weekend across portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.

- High winds are possible in at least the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains from Thursday afternoon into next week thanks to multiple upper-level storm systems.

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are in store tomorrow lasting through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows an upper-level ridge building into the region. This feature will bring warmer weather as highs are forecast to climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s for most locations. CAMs indicate another round of isolated to scattered storms south of Interstate 10 during the afternoon before dissipating by the early evening hours. This looks to be the last significant chance of rainfall the area sees through the rest of the week. Tonight, southeasterly/southerly winds continue to pull in Gulf moisture, allowing another night and morning of mist and patchy fog. The patchy fog and mist will have less coverage compared to previous mornings where it is going to be confined in the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In the upper levels, the ridge slides to the east while a strong upper- level storm system enters the Great Basin.

The aforementioned upper storm system introduces a warm, dry, and windy weather pattern for the rest of the week. At the surface, leeside troughing will develop over the region supplying strong to breezy westerly/southwesterly winds. This allows above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s regionwide. Strong/breezy winds with dry conditions increase fire weather conditions especially across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas Wednesday afternoon. Lows each night remain warm ranging from the 50s to mid 60s for most.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The dry and windy weather pattern persists on Thursday as the upper- level storm system moves across the Rockies. Increased westerly flow aloft coinciding with a deepening surface low across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon will provide stronger winds and more enhanced mixing compared to Wednesday. Therefore, further increased fire weather conditions are expected across similar locations. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more details. With the enhanced mixing and low-level thermal ridge, temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer in the mid 80s to mid 90s. High winds are possible across the Guadalupe Mountains as long-range guidance depicts a mountain wave signature at both the 500 and 700mb levels. At this moment, guidance has winds near to slightly below criteria likely due to the jet maximum being north of the area.

Friday into the weekend, warmer than normal temperatures persist due to quasi-zonal flow aloft and surface lee troughing. A secondary upper storm system is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest by Sunday, providing more windy and dry conditions across the region. This will increase fire weather conditions over similar areas and possibly induce more strong winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. Stay tuned!

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions have developed at most sites and will remain through the next 24 hours. The exception is MAF that will clear out very shortly, but then will see low MVFR or high IFR conditions return near 06Z.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions return Wednesday, continuing through the weekend. Thursday is expected to have the highest fire danger especially across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. This is due to warmer than normal temperatures, critical MinRHs, strong 20 ft winds, and with fuels curing. Poor overnight recoveries begin Wednesday night over many locations west of the Pecos River. For Wednesday, there may be a few spots that will have critical fire weather conditions, however, most locations across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas will be under near-critical conditions due to 20ft winds mainly being near and under 20 mph across the plains. ERCs continue to increase across these areas where little rainfall has occurred. Most of these areas look to have ERCs in the 50-74th percentile, however, as we progress later in the week with dry conditions, ERCs are expected to reach near the 75th percentile creating more favorable critical fire weather conditions west of the Pecos River. Another upper-level storm system late this weekend will bring more strong winds and dry conditions enhancing fire weather conditions further.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 92 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 87 64 92 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 58 92 62 93 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 81 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 55 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 60 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.