textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

- Near record warmth is expected today. Above normal temperatures and dry weather conditions will persist through the latter part of the week.

- A strong cold front is forecast to bring increased northeasterly winds and much cooler temperatures to the area late this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

Upper level ridging over south Texas will bring about another afternoon of warm temperatures, mostly clear skies, and dry conditions. Last evening's 0z sounding recorded a 500 mb height of 591 dm, which according to local sounding climatology is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. As a result, temperatures throughout the Permian Basin will be well above average for early November, with highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for most locations. Midland, Hobbs, Carlsbad, and Pecos are forecast to be just shy of the record for November 5th. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough making its way through the northern Great Plains will push a backdoor cold front south through the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico late this afternoon. The frontal push will be pretty weak, with some light to breezy northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph through the northern half of the forecast area. The front looks to only make it as far south as the Pecos River valley before mixing out. Low temperatures tonight will be about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than last night for areas north of the Pecos.

The story for tomorrow looks to be quite similar, with warm and above average temperatures throughout much of the region. Another shortwave trough passing through the central rockies will begin to flatten upper level heights over Texas, with 500 mb heights dropping dropping back into the 584 to 586 dm range (about average for this time of year). As a result, high temperatures will hover more around the mid 80s, and the threat of breaking record highs is looking much more unlikely. Lee-side surface troughing in eastern New Mexico and some more brisk upper level flow may create locally breezy (15 to 20 mph) WSW gusts during the afternoon. Downsloping winds in southeast New Mexico also look to also keep conditions slightly toastier near Carlsbad and Pecos. Winds will lessen overnight and temperatures will drop into the upper 40s and 50s. As the shortwave trough continues to progress east, it too will push another weak backdoor cold front south through the Permian Basin during the overnight hours and into the late morning on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

This weekend will finally bring a more significant shift in the sensible weather for southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The weak cold front on Friday will once again lower high temperatures for the third consecutive day, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for most of the area while locations along the Rio Grande remain a little bit warmer. Overall, Friday will be a quite pleasant day, with no impacts expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the upper level pattern becomes much more amplified over the western CONUS, which will be the impetus for the change in weather on Saturday. As sharp upper level ridging builds over the Pacific coast, longwave troughing will begin to dig south into the Great Plains, pushing through a potent cold front with strong winds and cold arctic air. These frontal passages are often much quicker than models usually let on to, so there is still some uncertainty in timing. However, the front should reach the Permian basin by late Saturday afternoon, which should limit high temperatures to the mid and upper 70s for the northern part of the forecast area. The front should push through the rest of the Permian Basin during the evening and overnight hours, bringing along some widespread 20 to 30 kt northerly wind gusts. Have notched up winds significantly, closer to NBM 90th and CONSMOS guidance, but still below Wind Advisory criteria for most areas. However, once the front reaches the Guadalupe Mountains, stronger 30 to 40 kt winds area likely (60% chance) for gap wind areas, where warnings may be needed if wind speeds continue to trend up.

Winds look to lessen on Sunday, but still light to breezy for most areas. Temperatures for Sunday have once again trended lower, with highs forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s for most locations and in the low 70s along the Rio Grande. As surface high pressure begins to settle over much of central and western Texas on Sunday night, clear skies should allow for effective radiational cooling. As a result, the coldest temperatures of the season are forecast for many areas. There is still quite a bit of spread among guidance as to how low temperatures on Monday morning may get, but have opted to lean colder (towards NBM 25th and 10th percentiles), bringing freezing temperatures for areas north of the Pecos. Going into the early part of next week, ridging begins to build once again and temperatures trend back up for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

A weak front will move through the region over the next several hours and shifts winds to the northeast. Wind speeds remain around or less than 10kts. VFR continues at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 45 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 45 85 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 51 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 50 87 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 50 76 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 41 82 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 42 82 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 46 83 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 46 82 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 43 85 48 79 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.