textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for most of West Texas.

- A high Wind Warning is in effect from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Monday for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, especially Guadalupe Pass.

- After record-breaking heat today, a cold front intrudes upon the region overnight and Monday morning, resulting in a brief cool down before temperatures quickly recover beginning Tuesday. A secondary cold front is anticipated Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For those who enjoy balmy weather the last few days have been great. Midland International Air & Space Port set its 3rd daily record high in a row, 98, beating the old record of 96 set in 2017, and setting a new record high for March. But wait, there's more! Today will be truly low-hanging fruit, as the record high is a paltry 91, set in 2018. Not only will today set a new record, but Model Certainty suggests KMAF may even eek out a 99, setting a new March record for the 2nd day in a row. With surface winds veering to the west ahead of a cold front under sunny skies, adding a downslope warming component to assist, a new March record is very possible. The downside of this will be critical fire wx. See fire wx discussion below for more details.

Unfortunately, the aforementioned cold front arrives after sundown, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 04Z, about an hour faster than 24 hours ago. Models persist in suggesting a few hours of high gap winds through KGDP, and we've issued a warning to cover this. This front will knock almost 20 F off temperatures Monday afternoon. Even so, highs will still come in ~ 5-7 F above normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tuesday, temperatures quickly rebound as the upper ridge builds east, centering over the lower Trans Pecos by Thursday afternoon, when highs will top out some 20-25 F above normal again. Regrettably, with Easter still a couple of weeks away, a secondary cold front is still on tap to intrude upon the area late Thursday night, knocking 10-15 F off of highs Friday afternoon. Models have strengthened this front over the last 24 hours, and it currently looks like highs Friday afternoon will close out the extended ~ 2-4 F below normal. The fabled Easter spell? Perhaps. Stay tuned...

Unfortunately, as things currently stand, the grids remain dry. However, ahead of the secondary front Thursday night, the GFS sharpens up a dryline, backing it up against the higher terrain by 06Z, setting up a triple point near Crossroads in northern Lea County as the front comes in. Both the ECMWF and CMC depict this to some extent as well. This could set up a potentially interesting warm sector and a busy night. But that could mean rain for Midland, so probably not. Again, stay tuned...

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return/southerly flow will veer to southwest this afternoon. Tonight, a cold front will move through the terminals, and should fropa KHOB first at around 02Z. A few high clouds are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today, under record-breaking heat, minimum relative humidity will drop to critical levels everywhere, and in the low single digits in many locations, resulting in widespread RFTI of 4. Although pre- frontal 20-ft winds are forecast to be rather tepid, ERCs will be 90th percentile or above, especially over the northern Permian Basin, and upper West Texas Trans Pecos, and this coincides very closely with the extent of dry fuels, promoting an environment conducive to easy fire starts. A cold front will move in after 00Z, and this will exacerbate any ongoing activity. For these reasons, we'll keep the current warning, but tack on the upper West Texas Trans Pecos/Davis Mountains. Fire wx conditions will be critical along the cold front as it moves in, but lower RFTIs due to cooler temperatures will follow closely enough that a RFW for that would be too short-fused to warrant an issuance.

The next window for widespread critical fire wx looks to be Thursday, when pre-frontal conditions similar to this afternoon's are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 100 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 98 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 51 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 98 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 45 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 52 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward- Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.