textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend with continued dry weather conditions.

- Cooler temperatures return by the early to middle part of next week and we are monitoring for the potential of at least low rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 244 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Not much to write home about in the short term. WV imagery this morning shows a weak upper ridge over the west coast, centered just off the coast of Baja, persisting in dry, northwest flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the surface, a very weak Pac front moved through here yesterday, but will be followed by a cold front later this morning. Although the front will shave 6-7 F off of yesterday's record-breaking temperatures, today's highs will still average almost 15 F above climatology under mostly sunny skies.

Tonight, surface winds veer to the east, and even back to return flow in places. Despite this, winds will be relatively light, and under mostly clear skies, radiational cooling will be rather efficient. Even so, overnight minimums will still bottom out a good ~ 12-14 F above normal.

Friday, thicknesses are forecast to begin increasing again, with highs jumping ~ 3-4 F from this afternoon, rounding out the short term 16-18 F above normal under mostly sunny skies and return flow.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 244 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday night through Sunday before transitioning more zonal Sunday night and Monday. A surface trough will remain oriented across southeast New Mexico and west Texas Friday night through Sunday. A southerly to southwesterly surface flow pattern will persist with this feature, while low level associated low level thermal ridging also keeps temperatures well above normal over our region through the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will range in the mid 80s to lower 90s over much of our forecast area. A few locations along the Rio Grande may top out in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend. These readings will be near record levels this weekend. Record high temperatures at Midland include 87 degrees on February 28th set in 1940 and 89 degrees on March 1st set in 2006. Overnight low temperatures will also remain well above average through the weekend, mostly ranging in the upper 40s to upper 50s on Saturday and Sunday morning. The next cold front may be pushing into the Texas panhandle by Sunday evening but there is considerable difference in the southward progression and timing of this feature going into Monday in the available operational forecast guidance this morning. A look at ECMWF ensemble guidance suggests that the front may be pushing into the southeast New Mexico plains and the Permian Basin by Monday morning while the GFS and ensembles are much stronger/colder and more aggressive with the southward push of the front on Monday. The NBM and WPC guidance seems to be taking the difference between these two solutions and this approach seems reasonable. The latest forecast indicates high temperatures on Monday only reaching into the mid 60s to lower 70s over far southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, while readings west and south of the Pecos are forecast to warm into the 70s and 80s ahead of the boundary. Adjustments to the forecast may be needed as the strength and location of this next front gets better resolved over the coming days. Dry weather conditions are forecast to persist through Monday afternoon.

A low confidence forecast continues into the early to middle part of next week. An upper-level low/trough will be slowly progressing across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region Monday night into Tuesday before perhaps weakening while lifting across the southern Rockies and central Plains by Wednesday. A more southwesterly flow pattern aloft will develop over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Monday night through Wednesday ahead of this feature. The aforementioned cold front may also weaken with a lingering surface trough becoming oriented somewhere in the vicinity of our forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. There is more variability on the indication of available moisture and lift over our area during the early to middle part of next week in some of the latest extended range guidance this morning. It still looks like there is opportunity for increased moisture/ascent within southwesterly flow aloft across portions of our region Tuesday into Wednesday, particularly over areas east of the Pecos River in the vicinity of the boundary. The latest forecast continues to show an uptick in POPs over these areas Tuesday and Wednesday, but these may be a bit aggressive (as is often the case with the NBM in our area). Another plausible scenario is that the better moisture gets shunted to our north and east and we remain mostly dry. It will be interesting to see how the upper air and surface pattern evolves over the next few days. The main takeaways for now are slightly cooler temperatures and at least low chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms going into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR will continue through the forecast period. Northwesterly to northerly winds will be elevated up to around 15 knots behind a passing cold front early this morning. Winds will decrease and become more northeasterly this afternoon and easterly this evening over most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 78 47 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 82 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 90 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 83 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 76 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 79 46 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 81 43 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 79 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 82 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.