textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- A couple of strong to severe storms may be seen this afternoon and evening across the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Lower Trans-Pecos. Large hail, damaging winds, and lightning will be the main hazards.

- Strong gap winds expected late tonight and into Saturday morning with the passage of a cold front in the Guadalupe Mountains.

- Medium to high (40-80%) rain chances continue for areas south of the I-10 corridor Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The latest surface observations show a dryline located across the western Permian Basin (along the TX/SE NM border) and extending south through the Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend. Meanwhile, an upper-level low is expected to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains later this afternoon. As it does so, heights will continue to fall this far south, providing broad forcing for ascent in combination with mesoscale forcing by the dryline. Ahead of the dryline, sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s) and daytime heating (highs in the 80s) is expected to cause destabilization of the atmosphere, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon into the evening. This includes portions of the central/eastern Permian Basin (best chances to the northeast) and the Lower Trans-Pecos. Forecast soundings show steeper lapse rates than yesterday (>7.2 C/km), with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values greater than 30kts and oriented perpendicular to the dryline. This supports an environment for discrete organized severe convection, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, it should be noted that not all thunderstorms that develop will become severe and cloud cover may limit instability. Based on the observed 18Z MAF sounding, instability has been limited so far as the cap has not been able to be broken yet. Breaking the cap will depend strongly on whether temperatures are able to warm at the surface and/or cool aloft.

Tonight into early Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area, bringing strong gap winds to the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. As such, a High Wind Warning remains in effect from 1 AM CDT through 1 PM CDT Saturday. Winds will be breezy elsewhere, but not strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. As the cold front pushes south, hi-res guidance shows another round of showers and thunderstorms moving through much of the same areas. Rain/storm chances gradually move south and decrease throughout the course of the day Saturday. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected for most. Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

By Sunday, shortwaves embedded in the upper-level flow and easterly to southeasterly upslope flow at the surface bring rain chances (20- 70%, up to 80%) mainly south of the I-10 corridor. The highest chances (generally 40-70%) extend from portions of the Trans Pecos/Marfa Plateau to the Presidio and Rio Grande Valleys (including the Big Bend National and State Parks). Guidance shows rain chances continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures Sunday through the early part of next week remain below normal, with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 60s for most (except 50s to low 60s in higher terrain). By the middle of next week, temperatures become more seasonable as upper-level ridging develops across the region. Long-range guidance shows rain chances (10-30%) shifting back east as another upper-level system approaches and a dryline sets up across the Permian Basin/Trans Pecos once again. However, there is uncertainty in the details this far out and changes to the forecast will be made as needed. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR remains at all sites. Cold front looks to pass through the region over the next several hours. Winds shift to the north and northeast behind the front. Gusts up to 35kts may be seen after frontal passage. Highest chances for convection with the front will be near MAF and areas to the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 67 46 67 45 / 20 0 10 10 Carlsbad 71 49 63 44 / 0 10 30 20 Dryden 72 53 61 49 / 50 40 70 50 Fort Stockton 69 50 60 47 / 20 20 70 50 Guadalupe Pass 61 45 53 42 / 0 20 60 20 Hobbs 69 44 65 41 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 64 41 54 36 / 10 40 80 50 Midland Intl Airport 66 49 65 46 / 10 10 20 30 Odessa 66 49 64 46 / 10 10 30 30 Wink 69 49 63 45 / 10 10 40 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.