textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

- Mild temperatures through next week, with low (25% to 35%) rain chances Sunday into early next week, especially for the Rio Grande basin.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 1229 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows an upper ridge of high pressure positioned over the Great Basin into Desert Southwest. This feature will track eastward into the forecast area today, kicking off a warming trend through the weekend. Surface winds veer west/southwesterly warming temperatures in the mid 60s for most areas, besides locations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains being in the low to upper 50s. Tonight, the aforementioned upper ridge of high pressure settles over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Clear skies and light winds will once again promote ideal conditions for radiational cooling, sending lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s across most locations Friday morning. By the afternoon, temperatures warm up in the upper 60s to mid 70s, placing them 5-10 degrees above normal during this time of year. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warm, then mild with southerly breezes a chance of rain showers late weekend into early next week. Remaining unsettled with a mix of sun and clouds and warm temperatures thereafter. That is what the forecast is shaping up to be. Not much has changed for early this weekend. Mid to upper omega block ridging from the Southern Great Plains into the Great Basin begins to become more centered over the forecast area and with it the core of large scale sinking motion warming the column adiabatically. Therefore, after lows fall into the 30s and 40s F Friday night, temperatures remain on track to rise at least a few degrees warmer than Friday for Saturday. Accompanying adiabatic warming from aloft will be development of adiabatic warming from downslope west/southwest winds west of weak lee troughing over the western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM, with south/southeast winds east of lee troughing. Highs rise into the upper 60s F higher elevations into Eddy County Plains, lower to mid 70s F Lea County and Upper Trans Pecos into Marfa Plateau foothills, mid to up upper 70s F rest of Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau, Terrell County, and Rio Grande basin, and lower to mid 80s F for the Big Bend. While ridging recenters over the Southern Great Plains, a mid to upper weather system developing over the Pacific SW/Baja CA begins to deepen into the Desert SW and northern MX plateau, opening up the flow for modified Pacific moisture higher up in the troposphere and resulting in increased high clouds over the area. Saturday night, these high clouds limit overnight cooling while dew point temperatures rise into the 30s F from the 20s F with the top down humidification of the air column, resulting in lows falling below the 40s F north of the Rio Grande basin, leeward foothills of Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau, with 50s F south of there.

Increased lift and moisture in the mid to upper troposphere and weak lifting from diffuse lee surface troughing set the stage for increasing low (25% to 35%) rain chances from west to east Sunday afternoon through evening. Recent model runs have shifted the track of the disturbance over the northern MX plateau south and given it a more quasi-zonal rather than east-northeast track, keeping the highest rain chances over the Rio Grande and southeast of the SE NM plains. Weather grids are showing scattered thundershowers over southern Culberson County into northwest Presidio County, but there is not enough instability or high winds in the lower to mid troposphere in model forecast soundings to suggest a risk of severe weather. As widespread mid to low clouds limit diurnal heating, highs Sunday cool a few degrees into the mid 60s to mid 70s F range, with exception of 80s F lingering near the Big Bend. Sunday night, rain chances and widespread cloud cover persist as dew point temperatures increase into the 40s F as the weather system draws closer. However, lows still end up falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range. Monday, and rain chances stay in the low (25% to 35%) probability range, with highest chances in most recent runs remaining over the Rio Grande basin before spreading into the Permian Basin. The low clouds and evaporational cooling from rain showers again reduce highs a few degrees from the previous day, as highs Monday struggle to rise above the mid 60s to lower 70s F range lower elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s F highest elevations, while holding in the mid to upper 70s F Big Bend.

As the weather system develops off to the east and deamplifies within the weak ridging as the air pattern snaps into a more quasi-zonal configuration, rain chances decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning and temperatures remain mild while drier air is initially slow to move back in. Lows consequently stay in the mid 40s to mid 50s range Monday night. Decreasing rain chances and reduced low cloud cover Tuesday along with breezy westerly winds allow highs to rise back into the mid 70s F leeward of the Marfa Plateau, lower 70s F downwind of the Guadalupes into the northwest Permian Basin, and upper 70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. However, as dew point temperatures fall below the mid 30s F and downsloping winds remain relatively light amidst deamplified ridging and boundary layer moisture being scoured out, lows cool into the 40s F Tuesday night for most locations, apart from the Rio Grande basin where lows remain in the lower to mid 50s F. Wednesday warms by a few degrees over the Rio Grande basin into Stockton Plateau but cools by a few degrees over western higher terrain into the northern Permian Basin as breezy westerly winds advect in drier and more continental air from the northern MX plateau and western and central NM from the west, with adiabatic warming downwind of the Marfa Plateau. As the continued westerly winds drop dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture back into the 20s and lower 30s F, lows Wednesday night slip below the 40s F for the northern SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin as well as windward foothills of the Marfa Plateau, staying in the 40s to 50s F range elsewhere. Low spread in total rainfall accumulation, NBM and ensembles only depicting a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch rainfall, and low (<20%) probability for more than 0.15" of rain do not indicate flood risk late this weekend into early next week. We will continue to monitor the upcoming weather system and the rain showers it brings.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light winds continue mainly out of the west to southwest. Directions become variable overnight at times. VFR prevails at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 68 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 33 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 68 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 67 38 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 37 61 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 65 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 29 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 65 38 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 66 32 71 39 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.