textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures are expected early this week.

- A strong cold front around midweek brings near to below average temperatures to the area by Thanksgiving.

- A gradual warming trend begins Thanksgiving through the remainder of the week ahead of another storm system.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depicts strong to severe storms over far eastern Stockton Plateau into southeasternmost Permian Basin. These storms are moving east and will clear the area later this morning, following passage of a Pacific cold front and departure of an upper storm system providing lift, moisture, and instability for these storms. As the Pacific cold front moves through, winds will shift from southerly to westerly and become breezy, especially over Guadalupes and Delawares into Marfa Plateau. This wind shift will be accompanied by dew point temperatures decreasing from the 40s F western higher terrain and 50s and 60s F farther east, to the 30s F western higher terrain and 40s F farther east. With this push of dry air, skies will clear from west to east today. CAA behind the Pacific cold front will be offset by downsloping winds and ensuing adiabatic warming to result in temperatures near or a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, we expect 50s F higher elevations, mid 60s to lower 70s F, and upper 70s to lower 80s F along Rio Grande into Terrell County. Tonight, skies remain mostly clear and dew point temperatures nearly everywhere fall into the 30s F, enhancing overnight cooling and allowing lows to once again fall into the 30s F western higher terrain and surrounding foothills and basins, northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, and 40s F elsewhere.

Tuesday sees continuous mostly clear skies and dew point temperatures below 40 F, so similar high temperatures to Monday are forecast. However, with troughing developing over the northern CONUS and rapidly pushing a strong cold front from the northern Intermountain West/Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, winds shift from northwest to north/northeast by evening as dew point temperatures fall even farther into the 20s F over western higher terrain and northern Lea County into Permian Basin. Therefore, lows Tuesday night will fall at least a few degrees cooler than Monday night, approaching near to below freezing Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills as well as northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin, mid to upper 30s F Culberson County, Upper Trans Pecos, and rest of SE NM plains into central Permian Basin, and 40s F elsewhere. A mix of milder and cooler weather is in store for the rest of this week with little to no rain chances until next weekend. Read the long term discussion for more details.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As mentioned above, upper-level troughing looks to reside overhead Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. The associated surface low near the Great Lakes region will help send a cold front down into our CWA Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning. Temperatures around sunrise on Wednesday hover near to slightly below the freezing mark within most of our northern counties, with upper 30s to mid 40s for almost everyone else. Highs Wednesday top out in the mid to upper 50s over the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and much of the higher terrain, while 60s are forecast elsewhere. Thursday, upper-level ridging begins to gradually build back in from the west, allowing temperatures to warm up a touch. Highs on Thanksgiving Day are forecast to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Flow aloft becomes zonal to southwesterly within a long-wave trough late in the week as another upper-level storm system begins to take shape near the west coast. A warming trend continues Friday and Saturday ahead of this system, with highs in the 70s slowly covering more area. Lee troughing near the Panhandle looks to send another cold front into our region Sunday. However, long-range models show quite a bit of variance in exact arrival and impacts of this system. Therefore, this will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy westerly winds are expected this afternoon with sustained winds of 10-20 kts and occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts at most terminals. Winds begin to decrease from west to east by 21Z. Winds become light and shift westerly-northwesterly by late this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 40 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 81 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 39 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 68 37 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 30 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 42 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 42 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.