textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hazardous heat today for the Upper Trans-Pecos, southeast New Mexico, and portions of the Permian Basin. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- The hazardous heat continues Monday across the region, with highs largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Low (10-20%) storm chances for far eastern counties.

- Heat stress will be a concern through the rest of this week with above normal temperatures in excess of 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today marks the official first day of summer, and is it ever going to feel like it across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Ridging continues to build over the Desert Southwest, extending into our area. This allows temperatures to jump back above the century mark for much of the region today and tomorrow. Highs today largely top out between 100 and 110 degrees, with mid-to-upper 90s in the higher terrain. The Heat Advisory inherited from the previous shift remains unchanged. Monday still appears to be the hotter day despite a weak boundary moving towards our northernmost counties. As a result, another Heat Advisory has been issued for much of our area, with the exception of northern Lea. For both Sunday and Monday nights, lows dip down into the 70s for most, with mid-to-upper 60s in typical cool spots. Otherwise, isolated convection remains possible in the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau this afternoon, though chances are low overall (10-20%). Tomorrow afternoon, despite subsidence from the ridge additional isolated convection may develop in our easternmost counties off of a dryline. Given strong instability (SBCAPE at/in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) and DCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, storms that do develop east of the dryline may become strong to severe, posing a threat for large hail and strong/damaging winds. However, once again chances tend to be low (10-20%), with the relatively better chances across our northeasternmost counties closer to the boundary.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Heat remains the main story going into the Long Term period as ridging continues to build across the Desert Southwest. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday remain anywhere between 100 and 105 degrees for most locations. Meanwhile, temperatures top out between 105 and 110 degrees for portions of the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande. By Wednesday, the ridge center moves farther west, and a trough moving across the northwestern CONUS begins to flatten out the ridge by the end of the work week. While this does allow temperatures to tick down a couple of degrees during the latter half of the week, highs nevertheless remain in the upper 90s and over 100 degrees through Friday. Hot temperature stick around through the weekend, though models disagree as to just how hot we will get as the ridge attempts to rebuild to our east. Regardless, the heat is here to stay for a while, so be sure to stay hydrated, limit time outdoors, and take frequent breaks if working outside this week! The best rain chances (10-30%) will generally be confined to the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos River. That being said, weak boundaries and disturbances in the flow aloft allow for at least low rain chances (10-20%) in northern and westernmost portions of the area this week.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be a little tricky, as models bring convective boundaries south into the area overnight and Monday, yet differ on timing. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps Monday will be too high for cu everywhere but KMAF, which may see a few cu ~ 9 kft AGL during the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 75 106 75 103 / 0 20 20 0 Carlsbad 73 104 72 107 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 103 75 101 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 74 107 72 103 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 72 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 71 104 70 104 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 66 100 65 98 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 74 106 74 102 / 0 10 10 0 Odessa 74 106 74 102 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 74 107 74 105 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley- Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Crane-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock- Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains- Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern Lea.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.