textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding.

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as additional disturbances move overhead.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out across the southern half of the region and will be one of the catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset. Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande.

Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop. Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s. Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast remains subject to change.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Near MVFR CIGs have moved into the region at most terminals and will be a fixture for the morning before lifting or dissipating. TS/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low to include mention at all sites with this issuance. Easterly flow shifts southeasterly during the day with sustained winds between 10-15kts. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any nearby convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 59 81 61 / 60 50 30 10 Carlsbad 82 59 90 60 / 30 30 10 10 Dryden 84 64 86 65 / 50 50 10 20 Fort Stockton 83 61 88 63 / 50 50 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 79 59 81 59 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 73 55 84 56 / 60 20 20 10 Marfa 85 52 82 50 / 40 20 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 75 60 83 62 / 70 30 10 10 Odessa 75 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 10 Wink 80 60 88 61 / 50 30 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.