textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- A cold front brings near to below average temperatures today.

- Mild temperatures return Thanksgiving Day through Saturday, with low (10-30%) rain chances Friday afternoon.

- A stronger front yields colder temperatures by Sunday through at least the beginning of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery shows another clear early morning scene. However, high temperatures today will be at least 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in the wake of the strong cold front that moved through late Tuesday evening into early this morning. Lower to mid 50s F, 40s F higher elevations, 60s F Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, and upper 60s F right along the Rio Grande from Presidio Valley into the Big Bend are all forecast today. The colder and drier airmass will result in dew point temperatures in the 20s across the northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and 30s F to the south, keeping boundary layer moisture low and enhancing overnight cooling even as winds shift back to the south. This will allow lows to fall to near to below freezing in the higher elevations of the Marfa Plateau and surrounding foothills and basins, northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, and lower to mid 30s F Upper Trans Pecos, with upper 30s to lower 40s F elsewhere.

Troughing over the central CONUS that allowed the rapid progression of the strong cold front earlier yesterday will ease for Thanksgiving Day as continued southerly winds are overlain by mid to upper ridging in the upper air pattern, providing large scale sinking motion and associated warming. As a result of WAA from southerly winds and ridging aloft, Thanksgiving Day features a return to milder temperatures at least 10F warmer than today north of Rio Grande basins, 15 to 20F warmer for higher elevations, and up to 5F warmer for Rio Grande basins. This translates to lower to mid 60s F for lower elevations north of the Stockton Plateau and Culberson County, upper 60s to lower 70s F for Marfa Plateau into Stockton Plateau, and 70s F for Rio Grande basins. Southerly winds also allow dew point temperatures to recover back into the 30s and 40s F to the south and east of Guadalupes and western and northern SE NM plains, where dew point temperatures stay in the 20s and 30s F. This increase in boundary layer moisture inhibits overnight cooling and keeps lows in the mid 30s F northern SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin as well as higher elevations of Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and 40s F elsewhere. Increased clouds with the more "humid" air will be followed by precipitation chances for late week into the weekend. Given trends in temperature for the weekend into early next week, not all of this precipitation may fall as rain. For more details, read the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

After a quiet and mild Thanksgiving, changes begin to take shape in our weather pattern. Overnight Thursday, flow aloft becomes zonal as a shortwave disturbance flattens the ridge that was previously overhead. This disturbance also leads to the development of a surface low over the central Great Plains, which steers breezy winds out of the south Friday afternoon. Moisture also looks to accompany these winds, resulting in low (10-30%) rain chances over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Temperatures early Friday morning range within the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region, then warm into the low 60s to mid 70s (mainly west of the Pecos River).

Temperatures trend upward Saturday ahead of a strong cold front brought on by the aforementioned surface low and an upper trough dropping down from Canada. Expect highs Saturday to top out primarily in the 70s. Saturday evening, northeasterly winds pick up as the cold front sweeps down from the Panhandle. Temperatures by sunrise Sunday are forecast to dip into the 20s within our northern counties, with 30s for almost everyone else. Midland may see it's first freeze of the season Sunday morning. Sunday's highs will struggle to make it out of the 40s for those east of the Pecos River and in the higher terrain. Most areas west of the Pecos look to generally reach the 50s Sunday afternoon, while 60s are forecast near and along the Rio Grande. An upper-level trough also swings from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southern Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This trough then hovers near our region through the day Monday before shifting eastward Monday night. Some models suggest sufficient moisture and lift to accompany this system to result in precipitation. Meanwhile, others suggest our area being dry-slotted. The NBM continues to show low PoPs Sunday night through early Tuesday. Temperatures gradually rebound Monday and Tuesday, as highs in the 50s slowly spread from southwest to northeast each afternoon. Overnight lows Sunday night through Tuesday night are forecast to dip into the 20s and 30s, with the coldest temperatures overlaying our northern counties and the higher terrain. Given the current uncertainty of whether or not precipitation will coincide with freezing temperatures (especially in our northern counties), we will be closely monitoring this system as it develops.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail as low clouds from this morning start to mix out. Southeasterly/southerly winds generally remain light (7-11 kts) through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 58 38 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 59 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 44 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 41 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 41 60 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 33 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 33 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 58 40 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 58 40 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 35 65 45 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.