textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening.

- A front tonight/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend.

- Tonight/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

An active weather pattern continues today and an upper level trough translates over the Rockies into the Central Plains. A few showers and storms are ongoing across portions of the eastern Permian Basin, the Lower Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop through day today, as moisture accompanied by rounds of disturbances continue to move over our region within southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible over much of the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend throughout the day. The best chances for rainfall will be over our easternmost counties. The primary hazard with this next round of activity looks to be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially in areas where soils are already saturated. Aside from rainfall, this storm system sends a cold front across the Plains. The front is progged to start entering our region this afternoon. The combination of rainy conditions, cloudy skies, and the cold front will result in highs in the 70s for most this afternoon, with 80s near and along the river valleys.

Later this afternoon and into the evening, winds start to pick up behind the cold front as it surges southward. Breezy northeast winds are expected across much of the region. Strong gap winds are expected within the Guadalupe Mountains this evening and through most of the day Friday. As such, a High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes from this evening through early Saturday afternoon, for gusts up to 70mph. Aside from elevated winds, cooler and drier conditions filter in behind the cold front. Rain chances taper off from north to south through the evening and overnight hours. A few showers and storms may still linger around the Big Bend region Friday morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Given the best moisture will hover near the Big Bend this evening and tonight, the threat of flash flooding will remain for this part of our region. Behind the cold front, temperatures early Friday morning will fall to the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows are expected within the Davis Mountains, where temperatures look to slip into the mid to upper 30s. Breezy conditions persist through late Friday afternoon, with highs topping out in the 50s to 60s (40s in the higher terrain).

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Heading into Friday night and Saturday morning, upper level ridging takes hold across the Southern Plains. Winds begin to decrease and skies begin to partially clear. Lows settle into the 30s and 40s areawide. A few of the coldest spots in the mountains may reach near freezing, briefly Saturday morning before warming back up into the 50s and 60s. Sunday morning will be about as chilly Saturday morning and that will begin a gradual warmup into the early part of next week. Highs move into the 70s with morning lows in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday. Low (10-20%) rain chances move into the area from the west during that time, but beyond Friday, much of the long term forecast is mainly dry.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

KMAF, KFST, and, to a lesser extent, KPEQ will bounce in and out of MVFR cigs this afternoon and overnight as bouts of convection move through the area as a cold front pushes south. KINK/KCNM/KHOB should remaIN VFR. Expect gusty winds after fropa through the end of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 60 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 52 59 43 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 49 58 39 57 / 90 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 54 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 59 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 41 51 34 54 / 80 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 54 62 40 59 / 20 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.