textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- A quiet weather pattern persists with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions from Sunday afternoon through next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Not much to write home about in the short term, as an upper ridge over the western CONUS will ensure that dry conditions persist over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A cold front intruded upon the area overnight, bringing post-frontal stratus generally along and east of the Pecos. This should scatter out in a few hours, but this should be the coldest day this forecast and beyond as highs struggle to range from around 40 northeast to the 60s in the Presidio Valley.

Tonight, surface winds veer back to return flow, but they'll be light. Although CAA will be arrested, light winds will combine with mostly clear skies to promote efficient radiational cooling, and overnight minimums may average a degree or so warmer than this morning's, if that. Tonight also looks to be the coldest night this forecast.

Sunday, the upper ridge passes through the Four Corners, increasing thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Highs will increase around 10 F over this afternoon's, ending up in the 50s and 60s most locations, still a couple of degrees below normal.

Sunday night, return flow will increase boundary layer dewpoints, and combine with increasing cloud cover from the southwest to keep overnight lows ~ 6-8 F warmer than tonight's, a couple of degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Not much has changed since the last forecast package. Warmer temperatures arrive Monday as the upper-level ridge axis moves over the region and southerly to southwesterly surface winds persist. This yields afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s areawide. By late Monday, the ridge axis shifts east and a shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft moves through the Southern Rockies. This sends a weak cold front into our region by late Monday night into Tuesday morning, allowing for cooler temperatures Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s can be expected mainly north of I-10, while areas further south can expect to see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis continue to show an upper-level trough moving across the Central Plains on Wednesday, sending shortwave impulses embedded in northwest flow aloft. Guidance has continued to trend downward on rain chances (<10%) across southeast New Mexico, the Presidio Valley, and Big Bend Wednesday into Thursday next week. This is likely due to long-range guidance keeping the best forcing for ascent and moisture quality further to our east. The upper-level trough shifts east and ridging builds in from the west by Thursday, yielding warmer and drier conditions late next week and into the weekend. Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR remains at all terminals. Light and variable winds tonight give way to southerly winds during the day on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 25 59 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 26 57 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 27 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 30 61 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 34 54 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 24 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 26 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 27 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 27 59 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 26 58 32 69 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.