textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through the week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor.

- The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the junction of Montana/South Dakota/Wyoming, substantially farther northeast than 24 hours ago. As a result, local thicknesses/ temperatures continue to decrease, shaving 2-3 F off of yesterday's temperatures. For those who prefer cooler weather, highs this afternoon should average around a degree below climatology. Assisting this will be convection along a boundary moving into the area from the north and another batch of convection developing up from Mexico.

These two areas of convection will merge overnight, and chances will generally increase. Rainfall/evaporative cooling may shave a couple of degrees off of this morning's lows.

Monday, deep easterly flow will advect abundant moisture into the area, deeply saturating soundings and increasing PWAts. By mid- afternoon, the NAM and GFS increase PWATs at KMAF to 1/74" and 1.78", respectively. The 100th percentile is 1.70", and the daily record is 1.76". If we can get a shortwave or two moving in under the ridge from the coast, rain chances will increase substantially. That said, our chances would be better if we had an inverted trough just to our west, so confidence is moderate at best. These increased rainfall chances, as well as overcast skies, should knock around 5 F off today's temperatures, yielding highs ~ 5-7 F below normal.

Excellent rain chances continue into Monday night, w/CAMs putting best chances along/south of I-20. If rainfall between now and then pans out, a flood watch may be warranted for later in the week. Overnight minimums will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so cooler.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The Long Term forecast features an active weather pattern. An upper ridge will be centered near the northern Plains through most of the week, before shifting back toward the Intermountain West later this weekend. With the ridge so far displaced, moisture within southeasterly surface flow pairs with several disturbances rolling along the ridge's edge, promoting rounds of rainfall through the next several days. Tuesday afternoon looks to be our best shot for widespread rainfall across the region, as an upper low traverses westward over Texas. At least a low chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms can be expected each afternoon and evening (potentially continuing into the overnight hours) of the forecast period. Given multiple rounds of rainfall and PWAT values between 1- 2" (above the 90th percentile), areas with saturated soils will be at risk of flooding, especially during occasions of heavy rainfall. The highest probability of flooding looks to be near and south of the I-20 corridor, where rain chances shall tend to be best over the coming days. The primary locations for flood threats remain low- lying areas and river valleys. Rain chances begin to taper down during the weekend as ridging builds back in.

Rainfall, cloudy skies, and an overall increase in moisture aids in keeping temperatures below normal this week. Afternoon highs are progged to reach into the 80s at most locations, while those in and near the higher terrain top out in the 70s. Highs in the 90s return along the Pecos River valley on Saturday. Overnight lows are forecast to mainly settle into the 60s (50s in the mountains).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

18Z models have backed off a little on low cigs depicted in 12Z runs. If there are any MVFR cigs to be had, KFST looks like the best candidate for a few hours Monday morning/afternoon. We've kept all other terminals VFR for the time being, but this could change, especially in areas hit by convection. Convection will be possible all terminals, and we've tried to time it based on latest NBM/CAMs. Winds will generally be light easterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 71 89 69 85 / 30 70 50 80 Carlsbad 70 89 68 87 / 50 40 50 60 Dryden 72 92 71 88 / 60 60 70 90 Fort Stockton 70 88 68 84 / 30 60 60 90 Guadalupe Pass 65 81 64 80 / 20 50 40 70 Hobbs 67 87 65 85 / 40 30 20 60 Marfa 61 82 59 79 / 40 80 60 90 Midland Intl Airport 71 87 69 83 / 30 60 50 80 Odessa 71 87 69 83 / 20 60 50 80 Wink 71 89 69 85 / 10 60 50 80

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.