textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday mainly for southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West Texas.

- Rain chances increase for mainly eastern portions of the area mid-week and into the weekend (generally 20-50% chances).

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Despite a cool and cloudy start, much of the region should warm up into the 70s and 80s today with 90s along the Rio Grande. Most locations dip into the 50s tonight as southerly winds keep temperatures above normal. Winds shift southwesterly for Tuesday and this downslope direction will bring temperatures back well above normal with most reaching into the 80s to low 90s. The record at KMAF for tomorrow is 89F and the current forecast is for 88F. A cold front is pushed through late Tuesday night and will bring colder air to at least the northern tier of counties of the region with some spots reaching into the 40s with 50s and 60s elsewhere.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

After the passage of a cold front Wednesday morning, temperatures end up relatively cooler, compared to Monday and Tuesday, but still above normal with most still reaching into the 70s and 80s. A spring- like pattern takes hold for the middle and end to the week as troughing persists across the Rockies and Great Plains. As moisture pools across portions of West and central Texas, rain chances increase across the eastern and northeastern portions of the CWA, but remain low (20-40%). Heading into Thursday and Friday, an approaching low from the west will add necessary lift and shear allowing for storms to become somewhat more organized. A few storms may be strong to severe, but the best conditions will remain mostly east of the Midland/Odessa area and may end up east of the region all together. Some uncertainty remains in just where storms will setup over the course of Thursday and Friday. Long range ensembles continue to show elevated rain chances (20-50%) for much of the area for both Saturday and Sunday, but questions remain about how much moisture will be available for areas further west.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions continue. Northeast winds become southerly in the next couple of hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 86 54 78 / 0 10 10 30 Carlsbad 50 88 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 88 60 85 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Stockton 59 91 57 81 / 0 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 55 79 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 51 87 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 85 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 55 79 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 57 87 55 79 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 55 90 50 79 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.