textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Rain chances return today through the weekend. A few storms may be strong to severe Saturday into Sunday, with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding being the main hazards.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current satellite imagery and latest 500mb RAP analysis shows a shortwave trough east of the region, while a strong upper low sits off the California Coast. This feature is going to bring an active weather pattern this weekend. Today, subtle upper-level ridging is expected over the region, supplying temperatures to reach the upper 70s to 80s for most locations. Subtle upper ridging breaks down late this afternoon and evening, resulting in scattered showers and storms to develop across portions of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Storms are expected to remain below severe limits, however, a few of them may produce locally strong gusts up to 55 mph. Forecast soundings depict an inverted-V profile, suggesting a straight-line wind threat for the strongest storms. Despite sufficient mid-level lapse rates, dry air at the low-levels will limit any large hail threat.

Friday night into Saturday morning, the aforementioned upper-level low advances further eastward supplying southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. High resolution guidance has lingering showers and storms across the higher terrain and far west Texas early Saturday morning. These lingering showers and storms along with cloud cover throughout the morning hours may inhibit convection from developing earlier as what high resolution guidance depicts. Much uncertainty exists in the cloud cover and potential morning storms in which these factors will have a big influence on the severe weather threat Saturday afternoon and evening.

By the late morning and afternoon on Saturday, the dryline sharpens across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop off the dryline. These storms are anticipated to increase in coverage as they move into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin by the mid to late afternoon hours continuing through the evening (assuming there is destabilization from the morning convection and cloud cover). A few of these storms are expected to become strong to severe with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings have sufficient deep layer shear, modest MUCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), and modest mid- level lapse rates pointing towards a damaging wind and hail threat. Flash flooding will be another concern with these storms due to very high PWATs, skinny CAPE profiles, and large cloud layer shear (> 80 kts) which are favorable conditions for efficient heavy rainfall to occur. Fast storm motions mitigates this threat, however, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same areas will result in flash flooding. There still remains uncertainty in the exact timing, location, and coverage of storms. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts and remain weather aware heading into this weekend!

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The severe and flash flood threat is forecast to continue into Saturday evening with the highest chances (60-80%) of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of our CWA (especially over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos). However, the severe threat is expected to have diminished some by the evening hours as instability decreases. Nevertheless, damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards. Forecast soundings continue to show anomalously high PWAT values (1.05"-1.15") during this timeframe, indicating a continued flash flood threat for some localized areas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) decrease by Sunday, but remain largely across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos region. A couple of storms may be strong to severe again Sunday afternoon if storms are to develop. However, confidence remains low in the positioning of the dryline, which would influence the overall coverage in our area. Rain chances further decrease Sunday night into Monday as the dryline moves east. However, low chances (10-30%) remain across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos through at least the middle part of next week as long- range guidance shows that is where the best moisture and forcing may set up. Though it must be noted that the details are largely uncertain at this time and will need to be ironed out in future forecast packages. Otherwise, daily afternoon highs look to be in the 80s for most each day throughout the extended. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A deck of low clouds has built in across much of west Texas and into portions of southeast New Mexico. Expect MVFR and briefly IFR CIGs across MAF, HOB, and CNM terminals throughout the morning. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds will persist at most terminals throughout today. Occasional gusts up to 25 kts may occur especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. An additional layer of low stratus is expected to develop overnight, resulting in MVFR and IFR CIGs for similar sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 83 60 76 59 / 0 20 70 80 Carlsbad 88 59 78 57 / 20 60 70 40 Dryden 83 64 79 60 / 0 30 60 80 Fort Stockton 85 62 77 59 / 0 20 70 70 Guadalupe Pass 79 55 70 54 / 20 40 70 30 Hobbs 84 57 74 53 / 10 40 70 50 Marfa 80 51 71 47 / 10 30 70 60 Midland Intl Airport 82 62 74 59 / 0 20 70 70 Odessa 82 62 73 58 / 0 20 70 70 Wink 85 62 75 57 / 0 20 70 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.