textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- A couple of strong to severe storms may be seen this afternoon and evening across the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Lower Trans-Pecos. Large hail, damaging winds, and lightning will be the main hazards.

- Strong gap winds expected late tonight and into Saturday morning with the passage of a cold front in the Guadalupe Mountains.

- Medium to high (40-80%) rain chances continue for areas south of the I-10 corridor Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The latest surface observations show a dryline located across the western Permian Basin (along the TX/SE NM border) and extending south through the Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend. Meanwhile, an upper-level low is expected to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains later this afternoon. As it does so, heights will continue to fall this far south, providing broad forcing for ascent in combination with mesoscale forcing by the dryline. Ahead of the dryline, sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s) and daytime heating (highs in the 80s) is expected to cause destabilization of the atmosphere, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon into the evening. This includes portions of the central/eastern Permian Basin (best chances to the northeast) and the Lower Trans-Pecos. Forecast soundings show steeper lapse rates than yesterday (>7.2 C/km), with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values greater than 30kts and oriented perpendicular to the dryline. This supports an environment for discrete organized severe convection, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, it should be noted that not all thunderstorms that develop will become severe and cloud cover may limit instability. Based on the observed 18Z MAF sounding, instability has been limited so far as the cap has not been able to be broken yet. Breaking the cap will depend strongly on whether temperatures are able to warm at the surface and/or cool aloft.

Tonight into early Saturday morning, a cold front sweeps through the area, bringing strong gap winds to the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. As such, a High Wind Warning remains in effect from 1 AM CDT through 1 PM CDT Saturday. Winds will be breezy elsewhere, but not strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. As the cold front pushes south, hi-res guidance shows another round of showers and thunderstorms moving through much of the same areas. Rain/storm chances gradually move south and decrease throughout the course of the day Saturday. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected for most. Greening

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

By Sunday, shortwaves embedded in the upper-level flow and easterly to southeasterly upslope flow at the surface bring rain chances (20- 70%, up to 80%) mainly south of the I-10 corridor. The highest chances (generally 40-70%) extend from portions of the Trans Pecos/Marfa Plateau to the Presidio and Rio Grande Valleys (including the Big Bend National and State Parks). Guidance shows rain chances continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures Sunday through the early part of next week remain below normal, with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 60s for most (except 50s to low 60s in higher terrain). By the middle of next week, temperatures become more seasonable as upper-level ridging develops across the region. Long-range guidance shows rain chances (10-30%) shifting back east as another upper-level system approaches and a dryline sets up across the Permian Basin/Trans Pecos once again. However, there is uncertainty in the details this far out and changes to the forecast will be made as needed. Greening

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR continues at all sites with MVFR CIGs sitting just east of MAF/FST. PROB30s remain in where confidence is higher in convection developing near MAF/FST this afternoon. Cold front moves through the area early tomorrow morning and will shift winds to the north and northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 52 67 46 67 / 80 0 0 10 Carlsbad 52 72 49 63 / 10 0 10 30 Dryden 62 72 53 61 / 30 40 40 70 Fort Stockton 56 67 50 60 / 30 40 20 70 Guadalupe Pass 50 62 45 53 / 0 0 20 60 Hobbs 49 70 44 65 / 30 0 0 10 Marfa 46 65 41 54 / 10 10 40 80 Midland Intl Airport 54 67 49 65 / 70 10 10 20 Odessa 54 67 49 64 / 70 0 10 30 Wink 54 70 49 63 / 30 10 10 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.