textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered storm chances exist this afternoon and tomorrow, mainly across the higher elevations.

- Cold front approaches the region on Sunday bringing higher rain chances through Monday. Will be monitoring for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are possible by the end of next week with many locations experiencing their first 100 degree day.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

There is more low level moisture and instability today than yesterday, which is shown on satellite with extensive cloud cover. Unfortunately models show a mid level cap preventing showers from developing in the Permian Basin. Once again today, rain will be confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River where orographic lift will help break the cap. A few storms could become marginally severe and storms moving slowly could produce flash flooding. The added clouds may not produce rain, but we should see temperatures several degrees cooler than yesterday with highs this afternoon only reaching the lower to mid 90s. Less moisture is expected tomorrow allowing temperatures to inch back up though still within the range expected for this time of year. Mountains convection will also be less tomorrow than today.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A large upper trough moves into the upper Midwest pushing a cold front into the area on Sunday and Monday. The NBM has been steadily trending lower with temperatures the past several days showing an increasing confidence that Sunday will be cooler. The cold front may not be the source of the cooler air as surface progs show the front near the northern basin by peak heating. More likely is extensive cloud cover and increasing showers would lead to a cooler day on Sunday. The highest rain chances are Sunday night into early Monday from southeastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin along and behind the cold front as it moves through. Decent rain amounts (0.25-0.75") are possible northeast of the Pecos River. The threat for flash flooding may be reduced by modest rainfall rates, meaning rainfall totals that could produce flash flooding in a heavy downpour will be able to drain better by occurring over several hours. However the flood threat still exists and will continue to monitor for the potential of a Flood Watch. Monday afternoon the focus for rainfall shifts south and west of the Pecos River as the front continues its slow progression through the CWA. Northeast winds behind the front favor orographic uplift and higher rainfall rates. This enhanced lift combined with terrain channeling could create an additional flash flood threat.

Rain comes to an end as the front exits south and an upper ridge begins building over New Mexico and West Texas. Temperatures remain mild for this time of year on Tuesday before heating up significantly on Wednesday. Increasing 500mb heights indicating greater subsidence as well as westerly mid level flow could have many locations seeing their first 100 degree day of the year. Those susceptible to heat will want to be alert for late next week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR will prevail at the terminals through the period. Have included a tempo for TS briefly affecting KCNM and KPEQ this evening. There is also a low chance (30%) of MVFR cigs affecting KMAF around sunrise for an hour or two. Will continue to monitor model trends and may include in later issuances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 73 96 72 88 / 0 0 10 30 Carlsbad 70 100 70 90 / 50 10 10 70 Dryden 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 71 98 71 95 / 10 10 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 67 91 69 84 / 30 20 10 60 Hobbs 68 97 67 85 / 10 0 20 70 Marfa 60 89 61 90 / 50 20 10 70 Midland Intl Airport 72 95 72 89 / 0 0 10 40 Odessa 72 95 72 89 / 0 0 10 40 Wink 72 99 72 92 / 0 0 10 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.