textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through this weekend with near record heat possible today and Saturday.

- Temperatures remain above normal through at least the middle part of next week, but begin to gradually cool.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin today and again late this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Meanwhile, a stationary front resides in the northern Permian Basin. The front is expected to become diffuse by late morning/early afternoon as daytime heating under the ridge ensues. Isolated to scattered (10-30% chance) showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon/evening due to upslope flow and daytime heating. A few storms could become strong, with gusty winds as the main hazard. Otherwise, widespread triple digit highs can be expected across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande.

The upper ridge builds over our region on Saturday, yielding near- record high temperatures. For reference, the previous record high of 101F was set in 1930 at Midland International Air and Space Port (forecast high is 102F). Most of the forecast area can expect triple digit heat, with the hottest spots being along the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks if you must be outside for an extended period of time. Aside from the heat, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop mainly west of the Pecos River in the upslope flow regime.

Greening

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

By Sunday and into next week, troughing to the north and west helps push the upper-level ridge east of our area. This causes temperatures to steadily decrease through next week. On Sunday, highs remain in the upper 90s and just over 100 degrees for most locations. By Wednesday and Thursday highs in the low-to-mid 90s will have become more commonplace. It should be noted, however, that these temperatures will still be about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year (for reference, 87 degrees is the average high at KMAF for September 16th and 17th). Decreasing subsidence and nearby pulses in the flow aloft will also help encourage increasing rain chances next week, mainly for the western half of the area. For Sunday, rain chances will mainly exist in/around the higher terrain west of the Pecos (10-20%). From Monday through the end of the forecast period, chances for southeast New Mexico and locations south and west of the Pecos River will generally be in the 20-50% range.

Sprang

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Generally light southeasterly to southerly winds continue this forecast period. Showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon, but have opted to leave out of TAFs for now due to low confidence in terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 102 76 104 75 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 102 73 104 74 / 10 0 10 0 Dryden 102 76 103 76 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 100 75 103 74 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0 Hobbs 100 73 103 73 / 10 0 10 0 Marfa 91 64 94 64 / 30 10 30 10 Midland Intl Airport 100 76 102 75 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 100 77 102 76 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 102 77 105 76 / 10 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.