textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Spring-like temperatures persist through the extended forecast.

- An upper-level storm system brings low to medium (30-60%) rain chances to the area tonight through Tuesday evening. No flash flooding is expected as rainfall amounts look to remain light.

- Medium rain chances (40-70%) return Friday and Saturday, mainly across the northern and eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans- Pecos.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Current satellite imagery shows a shield of mid to high cloud cover over much of west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This cloud shield is expected to stick around throughout today lasting through Tuesday night, thanks to an upper low southwest of the forecast area. Temperatures during the afternoon are going to be cooler than what a lot of guidance has been suggesting due to not resolving the current cloud deck over the region. Expect high temperatures to range in the upper 60s and 70s this afternoon. Tonight, the aforementioned upper low moves closer to the region supplying more ascent for scattered rain showers to occur mainly along the Presidio Valley extending to the Davis Mountains and Van Horn corridor. Low temperatures remain warm as persistent cloud cover and increased low to mid level moisture limits the normal diurnal temperature range across the region. As a result, temperatures look to only drop in the mid 40s to upper 50s for most locations. There is medium (60-70%) confidence in lows breaking the "warm" low record at Midland Intl which was set back in 1976.

Tuesday, rain showers increase in coverage as the upper low inches closer to the region coinciding with an approaching cold front north of the region. Hi-res forecast soundings have PWATs exceeding the daily climatological maximum. This typically indicates a heavy rainfall threat, however, very limited lift/ascent and instability keeps this threat very low. Therefore, low rainfall amounts are expected with many locations forecast to receive a trace to 0.1". Highest amounts remain west of the Pecos River where some locations may receive 0.2-0.5" through Wednesday morning. Hi-res guidance also has low elevated instability where a couple of rumbles of thunder may occur especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than today. Tomorrow night, the cold front moves through the region bringing brief breezy winds and colder morning temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. Rainfall coverage begins to significantly decrease as the upper low moves east of the forecast area.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

After the system departs Wednesday morning, upper-level ridging begins to build into west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and cloud cover decreases. Nevertheless, easterly winds behind Tuesday evening's weak front helps keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s (this is only a couple of degrees above normal). By Wednesday evening, return flow starts to redevelop, and lows Thursday morning only bottom out in the 40s and low 50s. Temperatures shoot back into the mid-to-upper 70s for most locations Thursday afternoon thanks to the aforementioned ridging aloft and return flow at the surface.

By Friday morning, yet another system starts to move towards Baja California and pushes the ridge further west. Simultaneously, shortwaves in the southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft encourage increasing rain chances, mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Rain chances are maximized Friday evening into Saturday morning as the main upper-level system approaches. Once again, the best chances (40-70%) look to mainly be across northern and eastern portions of the Permian Basin and in the Lower Trans-Pecos, where relatively better moisture will be located. While increased clouds and moisture will temper highs somewhat through the weekend, upper 60s and low-to- mid 70s will remain commonplace for the remainder of the extended.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR remains at all sites. Light, southerly to southwesterly winds hold through tonight. A weak front arrives during the day on Tuesday. Rain chances increase on Tuesday, but confidence remains low and timing of impact at terminals, thus no mention made with this issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 53 70 43 67 / 10 40 50 10 Carlsbad 50 65 45 67 / 10 40 20 0 Dryden 57 71 51 74 / 10 40 30 0 Fort Stockton 58 72 48 70 / 10 50 40 0 Guadalupe Pass 49 58 43 60 / 10 50 20 0 Hobbs 50 66 41 65 / 10 40 40 0 Marfa 46 64 38 67 / 20 60 30 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 70 44 68 / 10 40 50 10 Odessa 55 69 44 67 / 10 40 50 10 Wink 52 66 44 66 / 10 40 50 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.