textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall and an increased risk of flash flooding over the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much of the southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon through tonight. The pattern may continue to support heavy rainfall and a risk of flooding over these locations through late this week.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels today through the remainder of the week, gradually warming again by this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A batch of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall is lifting out of northern Eddy and Lea counties as of 230 AM CDT. A storm spotter relayed a rainfall report of 1.67" just northeast of Artesia as of 1250 AM MDT, while radar estimates that pockets of 1-2" of rain has fallen over other portions of Eddy and Lea counties with earlier shower/storm activity. We will be closely monitoring the potential for additional heavy rainfall and an associated increased flash flood threat across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Van Horn Corridor as additional showers and thunderstorms develop later today into tonight.

Synoptically, a moist south-southwesterly flow pattern aloft (with PWATs up to 1.5 to 1.75 inches) will persist over southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas today and tonight between upper- level high pressure centered over eastern Texas/western Louisiana and an upper level trough extending from the Desert Southwest to just west of the Baja region. A surface boundary draped from the Guadalupe Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos/southern Permian Basin early this morning will retreat to our northeast today, while a surface trough takes shape from southeast New Mexico into the Big Bend region. Short range and high resolution model solutions remain in good agreement with bringing increased ascent associated with shortwaves in the S-SW aloft over western portions of our forecast area by this afternoon. Numerous to widespread (60-90%) showers and thunderstorms will subsequently develop over locations especially along and west of an Artesia- Carlsbad-Van Horn- Candelaria line this afternoon before spreading northeastward over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains and into the rest of the southeast New Mexico Plains this evening. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with very localized higher totals over 3 inches will be possible over these locations. Heavy rains may quickly result in flash flooding of arroyos, creeks, streams, urban and low lying areas. We will maintain the Flood Watch that continues for much of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Van Horn Corridor/eastern Culberson County through early Thursday morning. Elsewhere, we expect other isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening over the Marfa Plateau, Big Bend, Davis Mountains, Upper Trans Pecos, and the western and northern Permian Basin later this afternoon into this evening. A few of these storms could also produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Highs today will only reach into the 70s to around 80 degrees over western portions of our area where rain chances are highest. Highs range in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees over the remainder of the CWA. Lows tonight will range in the 60s for most, except upper 50s in the higher terrain and in the lower 70s from the southern Basin to the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.

The moist southwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist Thursday into Thursday night. Additional rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread over western portions of our forecast area with this pattern again Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible and later shifts may need to extend the Flood Watch into Thursday night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend as far east into portions of the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and parts of the Big Bend. Temperatures should otherwise be similar to those today and tonight.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast with this package. A moist southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue into friday, with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms persisting over much of our region, with the highest chances remaining focused over our western and northwestern CWA. We will need to continue monitoring for additional heavy rainfall and flooding concerns Friday into Friday night. The mid-level flow pattern transitions more zonal on Saturday with the axis of moisture and associated rain/storm chances becoming more focused over southern portions of our forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging briefly builds back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday into Monday, so storm chances will trend lower both of these days (best chance focused over the southwest mountains). The next shortwave trough brings an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms and perhaps some potential for locally heavy rainfall over the area again late Monday into Tuesday. A warming trend otherwise occurs late this weekend into early next week with highs reaching back into the upper 80s to mid 90s over much of our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions will generally remain prevalent through the period with broken to overcast mid to upper level cloud decks spreading over the region. The next round of scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA will develop and spread over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas (primarily west of the Pecos River) this afternoon and evening. Some of these will reduce visibility and ceilings to MVFR to near IFR, with the greatest chance of impact at KCNM, KPEQ, and KHOB between 21Z and 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 90 70 91 71 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 81 63 82 63 / 70 70 50 80 Dryden 91 72 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 87 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 72 59 74 60 / 80 50 60 80 Hobbs 82 65 82 65 / 30 40 30 70 Marfa 79 58 81 58 / 40 30 30 60 Midland Intl Airport 88 69 89 70 / 10 20 10 30 Odessa 87 70 88 71 / 10 20 10 40 Wink 88 69 88 69 / 20 30 20 60

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Eastern Culberson- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.