textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are probable again through Thursday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions through at least Thursday, especially over the higher terrain.

- A strong cold front will intrude upon the region late Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The heat is back on! WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge extending from the eastern Pacific eastward to the Texas Gulf Coast, and this will dominate local conditions over at least the next few days. Latest observations show light/variable surface winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but these will revert back to return flow in the east later today, whereas over the higher terrain, winds will take on a more westerly component. This will result in increasing thicknesses resulting in a pleasant temperature recovery over yesterday's highs, which came in right around climatology. Instead, assisted by mostly sunny skies and downslope warming, highs will increase at least 15 F this afternoon over yesterday, if not closer to 20 F. Highs further increase a couple of degrees on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

This warming trend will continue through Thursday as the upper ridge strengthens and builds east, to central Texas by Thursday afternoon. Indeed, Thursday looks to be the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau a congenial 20-25 F above normal, with 90s most locations and even triple digits in the Pecos River Valley.

To spoil the warmer weather, another cold front arrives beginning late Thursday night, w/the latest NAM putting fropa at KMAF at just after 12Z Friday. This front looks stronger than the recent one, bringing high gap winds to KGDP and threatening to drop highs Friday afternoon ~ 20-25 F from Thursday. CAA continues into Saturday, which looks to be the coldest day this forecast as highs bottom out an average of 5 F below normal, keeping some locations in the 60s.

Temperatures make a recovery effort Sunday and Monday, but it looks rather tepid. By Monday afternoon, highs should be only around 10 F above normal.

On the bright side, by Sunday evening, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under southwest flow aloft due to a trough over the southwest CONUS. This will open a window for convection out west Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Chances remain minimal, but better than they've been in quite some time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light/variable surface winds will generally become southerly today, and a high cloud or two cannot be ruled out.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Fire wx concerns will increase through Thursday as temperatures recover. Single-digit RH returns this afternoon, along with ERCs 75- 96th percentile, which will only increase through Thursday. Fuels remain dry/critically dry, as well. The one missing ingredient is substantial 20-ft winds. Under this upper ridge, they just can't develop sufficiently to warrant a warning attm. That said, only elevated to near-critical conditions at best are anticipated over the next few days, and these will be addressed daily. Today, the area of concern will be the Guadalupes/Delawares, where 20-ft winds will be the highest, yielding a fire environment of 7-8 due to these increased 20-ft winds. We'll issue a RFD to cover this. This area will potentially increase Wednesday and Thursday.

A strong cold front arrives late Thursday night and Friday, and this may result in a few hours of critical fire wx conditions along/behind the front before cooler temperatures advect into the region. A RFW may be needed for this, but this is too far out for any products attm. Instead, we'll highlight the front in routine products.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 92 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 95 56 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 93 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 54 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 89 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 59 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 92 59 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 94 55 96 58 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.