textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Low (10-15%) chance of an isolated storm or two for the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos late this afternoon and early evening. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and portions of far west Texas through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Surface observations show the dryline is near the Midland/Odessa area this afternoon and may push a bit further east before convection begins along it in the next few hours. Isolated storms will be seen across the eastern most counties of the CWA. This activity will move east and decay around or just after sunset this evening. A few storms may be severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Dry air and mainly clear skies behind the retreating dryline tonight will allow areas west of Midland to cool efficiently with temperatures dropping into the 40s and 50s. Thursday will be somewhat of a repeat to today, but with the dryline moving even further east, rain chances take a drop down even for the eastern reaches of the area. Highs end up above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Friday also sees dryline action across the eastern Permian Basin during the afternoon/late evening, but like Thursday, it should be fairly limited in coverage. Another upper low also approaches on Friday and will increase winds across southeast New Mexico and into portions of West Texas. Breezy conditions will persist for the day before decreasing that evening. A cold front moves through the area early Saturday morning and keep temperatures below normal for both Saturday and Sunday with many areas in the 60s and 70s. By Sunday, an upper level disturbance looks to cross the region and long range guidance is bringing in broad, but low (10-30%) rain chances. Confidence remains low on just how much rain areas will get. Temperatures gradually increase back to normal (upper 70s to low 80s) on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR continues at all sites. Gusts between 20-25kts may occasionally be seen during the day and decay after sunset tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected the next few days, mainly over southeast New Mexico and into portions of west Texas. Critical MinRHs (generally below 10%) will combine with gusty winds and dry fuels. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is still in place for portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains, and eastern Culberson County of west Texas through the early evening. We are continuing to keep an eye on Friday as a deep upper-level trough enters the Great Plains. This is expected to bring stronger southwesterly winds which in turn keeps MinRHs in the single digits. Additionally, continued drying fuels combine with RFTIs into the 6-8 range across much of southeast New Mexico and portions of northern Culberson County. This may result in critical to potentially extreme fire weather conditions on Friday for these areas. Should this forecast hold, a Red Flag Warning may be necessary. Friday night into Saturday, winds are forecast to shift northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front. As a result, cooler temperatures and thick cloud cover lowers fire weather concerns, though winds are expected to be breezy.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 56 89 64 91 / 0 10 20 0 Carlsbad 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 88 66 92 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 47 86 55 86 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 46 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0 Odessa 56 87 64 89 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 50 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.