textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 - More showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. A storm or two may become strong across far southeast New Mexico, northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. Localized flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail will be the main threats.

- Daily afternoon/evening storm chances through next week, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Current satellite and latest RAP analysis shows an embedded shortwave trough moving across portions of southwest Texas. This has allowed for a few showers and storms to linger throughout the evening into overnight hours. Expect some early morning showers and a couple rumbles of thunder as they push east and northeast across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. For today, the dryline will set up in far southeast New Mexico extending into the Big Bend region. Coincidentally, a stalled boundary currently in the southern half of the region will lift north of the area by the late morning hours. Guidance has more shortwave impulses moving over the region once again. Given this setup, additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the afternoon and progress eastward through the evening hours. The highest chance (20- 40%) for showers and storms will be over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during this timeframe. A storm or two may become strong across far southeast New Mexico, the northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos as modest mid-level lapse rates and instability brings a damaging wind and large hail threat. The main threat to consider will be flash flooding due to saturated soils from yesterday's rainfall along with high Precipitable Water (PWAT) values, signaling heavy rainfall to occur. Temperatures are anticipated to be much warmer than yesterday climbing into the mid 70s and 80s.

Tonight, a similar pattern is in store as embedded shortwaves move across the region which may keep a couple of lingering showers and storms around in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Lows are forecast to range from the 50s to low 60s. Friday, the dryline is expected to be positioned across eastern portions of the area. This will keep storm activity isolated in coverage and confined over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin Friday afternoon. A similar pattern looks to stick around heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details.

Lamberson

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The long term features weak mid to upper ridging transitioning to mid-level closed troughing into much of next week that maintains moderate near normal temperatures for mid to late May. The weakness in ridging this weekend and cooler air aloft accompanying the closed low next week will allow for passing mid to upper air disturbances focusing lift and moisture in alignment with near surface boundaries to produce 20% to 45% rain chances across parts of the area each afternoon/evening. Highs will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s F, upper 90s F Rio Grande basins, and triple digits for the Big Bend, while lows largely settle into the 50s higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, and 60s F elsewhere apart from upper 60s to lower 70s F along the Rio Grande. The dryline will oscillate over western parts of the area, but generally we can expect humid air over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, moderately dry air over much of the SE NM plains, rest of the Permian Basin, into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau into the Rio Grande, with driest (lowest dew point temperatures) over western higher terrain of W TX and SE NM. Most regions can also expect to see light, southeasterly humid upslope flow. There is the potential for fire starts from lightning over the western higher terrain, but no significant severe convective weather is expected at this time. Daily afternoon/evening showers/storms may allow regions east of the western higher terrain to pick up at least a few tenths of an inch, and up to an 1" or more in heavier showers/storms over the course of next week (55% to 75% chance). However, due to spotty nature of diurnal convection forced mainly by subtle disturbances aloft interacting with mesoscale boundaries and topography at the surface, rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings persist through the morning hours at most terminals. These ceilings are expected to lift by late morning. Opted to include a TEMPO for BR over HOB given latest observation trends nearby. Uncertainty remains in MVFR CIGs developing across PEQ and FST sites, however, further amendments may be needed. Increasing confidence in isolated to scattered convection beginning early this afternoon lasting through the early evening hours. Winds will generally be light and southeasterly/southerly through much of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 79 60 91 63 / 30 30 10 20 Carlsbad 89 59 93 60 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 83 63 90 66 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 86 62 92 64 / 40 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 80 58 82 60 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 82 55 91 57 / 30 20 0 0 Marfa 81 50 84 53 / 20 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 81 61 91 64 / 30 20 10 10 Odessa 82 61 91 64 / 30 20 0 10 Wink 86 59 93 62 / 20 20 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.