textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Blowing dust and strong winds today followed by calmer winds and much cooler temperatures to start the weekend.

- A few light rain showers are possible for the southeast Permian Basin into Terrell County late tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Warmer and drier conditions with breezy winds each afternoon return by late weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Winds will slowly decrease from earlier this morning as the strong cold front clears the area. A Blowing Dust Advisory remains in effect until this evening for all except the southernmost parts of Presidio and Brewster Counties along the Rio Grande, due to northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph or more resulting in blowing dust reducing visibilities down to between one and three miles or even lower. However, strong northeast winds sustained above 35 mph and gusting to 55 mph or more will remain present over the Guadalupes and Delawares past this evening, so a High Wind Warning remains in place for those regions until Saturday morning. Temperatures will remain largely unchanged today. Northeast winds decrease, but CAA persists this evening into tonight, while boundary layer moisture/dew point temperatures decrease with CAA into the 20s and 30s F from the 30s and 40s F, allowing for more efficient overnight cooling. This will allow temperatures to quickly drop into the 40s to 50s F north of the Rio Grande basin and into the 60s F for the Rio Grande basin by sunset, then down to the 40s and 50s F by midnight, and largely 40s F by Saturday morning. NBM indicates lows bottoming out in the mid 30s F over the Marfa Plateau, Guadalupes, and northern Lea County by that time, so temperatures near freezing for the highest terrain are not out of the question even as probabilities of this occurring are low (<30%). Low to moderate (25% to 35%) rain chances also develop over the eastern Permian Basin late Friday night into early Saturday morning. However, since there is near absence of any showers on simulated reflectivity and deterministic and ensemble model total accumulations show at most a few hundredths of an inch where any rain does fall, any rain showers that do develop are expected to be very light and disorganized.

A brief spell of much cooler than average temperatures is in store for early this weekend, but it will be short-lived. Highs Saturday will be up to 20F to 25F cooler than today and 35F to 40F cooler than Thursday, with temperatures rising into the 40s and 50s F, 60s F right along the Rio Grande basin by early afternoon, into the 50s and 60s F, 70s F right along the Rio Grande by the late afternoon, and mid 60s to mid 70s F by early evening. Dew point temperatures will increase back into the 30s and 40s F as east/northeast winds veer to southeast. As WAA ensues along with higher boundary layer moisture inhibiting overnight cooling, low temperatures Saturday night are only expected to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s F range by sunrise on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Mid to upper ridging largely remains present into the middle to end of next week across the area, allowing temperatures more typical of late April to early May and near zero rain chances to prevail until then. NAEFs ensemble tables predict persistence of mid to upper ridging characterized by surface temperatures staying 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Temperatures quickly rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s F by late morning Sunday, mid 70s to lower 80s F by early afternoon, and then level off into the mid 70s to mid 80s F, upper 80s to lower 90s F along the Rio Grande by late afternoon/early evening as breezy southerly winds back to southeasterly. Southerly winds becoming breezy once again will coincide with redevelopment and strengthening of lee troughing over westernmost TX and central NM as existing lee troughing over the High Plains of the TX into NE panhandles builds back southwest. These features are expected to yield a more persistent dryline that will oscillate over the region for the next week. Lows fall into the 50s to lower 60s F by daybreak Monday, mid 40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County. With persistent mid to upper ridging and near surface lee troughing setting up over the area into the middle of the week, breezy southerly winds will continue to develop each afternoon. With these breezy southerly winds, highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s F, upper 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations, and mid 90s to upper 90s F are forecast Monday as lows only fall into the 50s to 60s F, apart from mid to upper 40s F southwest foothills of the Marfa Plateau. Monday has trended warmer than Tuesday in terms of high and low temperatures as by Monday a dryline to the west strengthens and moves east, but before an intensifying mid to upper troughing over the Intermountain West pushes a weak cold front and west/southwest wind shift into the area Tuesday, per forecast surface frontal analyses maps and ensemble guidance. Therefore, we are now seeing highs mainly in the 80s F, mid 70s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 90s F confined to the northeast and southern Permian Basin, northern Stockton Plateau, and along the Rio Grande, while lows north of I-20 and for the western higher terrain again dip back down into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range, while remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s F south of there and east of western higher terrain.

Deterministic and ensemble models indicate aforementioned increasing mid to upper troughing over the Intermountain West extending into the western portions of the Southern Great Plains by the middle into the end of the week, halting the warming trend in high temperatures and keeping them more spring-like rather than summer-like. The associated decrease in large scale sinking motion from the dampened mid to upper ridging will allow passing numerous mid to upper disturbances to brush parts of the area. Lift and moisture with these disturbances will generate lift and combine with daytime heating to produce showers/storms. Currently, NBM depicts a low (<30%) chance of showers/storms mainly to the northeast of the Pecos River. The disturbances will aid passage of additional near surface weak cold fronts mainly accompanied by west/northwest wind shifts. These passing disturbances will allow slightly cooler temperatures at times, especially Wednesday when highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s F are forecast for the western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin. As a diurnally driven breezy south/southwest winds during the day, light winds at night pattern re-establishes, highs during the middle to late part of next week then rebound back into the mid 80s to lower 90s F, mid 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations, upper 80s to lower 90s F Rio Grande basin into Terrell County, and mid to upper 90s F Presidio Valley into the Big Bend by the end of next week. Stronger cold front passages being confined far to the north of the area and westerly downslope winds in vicinity of an oscillating dryline over central parts of the area offsetting any CAA accompanying further weak cold front passages will reinforce the late spring diurnal temperature setup. A diurnal variation of at least 20F to 25F maintains low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, as lighter winds overnight and dew point temperatures in the 20s and 30s F west of the dryline for the western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin and dew point temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s F east of the dryline from the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County continue to allow for efficient overnight cooling. These lows may trend lower or higher depending on how frequent the additional mid to late week cold front passages are.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals as BLDU subsides. Northerly to northeasterly winds remain gusty through the rest of this evening before mostly subsiding after 06Z. CIGS remain just above MVFR (~35 to 50kft) this evening and are expected to gradually rise throughout this TAF period. Winds veer southeasterly to southerly Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 43 64 47 86 / 10 10 0 0 Carlsbad 45 70 44 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 47 67 47 83 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 43 69 48 88 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 37 64 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 41 67 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 31 67 37 81 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 44 65 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 44 65 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 43 66 45 87 / 10 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Crane- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving- Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

High Wind Watch Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County- Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

High Wind Watch Saturday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.