textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Near-record highs again today before temperatures gradually cool through the latter half of the week.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today, Thursday, and Friday mainly for portions of southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West Texas.

- Shower and storm chances (generally 20-50%) increase for mainly eastern portions of the area mid-week through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

One more day of near-record breaking heat is in store today before temperatures begin to taper down midweek and through the weekend. An upper-level system is evident near the Four Corners region this morning on water vapor satellite imagery. This system will continue to push the broad ridge currently set up over our area eastward. In the meantime, southerly winds are evident across the region this morning, and a low-level jet has allowed winds to remain breezy for portions of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. These features keep lows in the 50s for most of the area, with upper 40s in the higher terrain and portions of southeast New Mexico. Breezy southwesterly to westerly winds help keep highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations this afternoon. The current forecasted high at KMAF is 88 degrees, which would be one degree shy of tying the previous record high temperature. Rain chances are very low today (< 10%), as CAMs only depict an outside shot at isolated convection in far eastern zones.

Early Wednesday morning, a weak front drops south and makes its way across the area through the day. Lows bottom out in the low-to-mid 40s in the higher terrain and in northernmost portions of the area. Locations farther south and east still only drop down into the 50s (low 60s along the Rio Grande) before the front can make it to them. In any case, highs tomorrow end up cooler (albeit still above normal) for most of the area. Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s will be common, though upper 80s and 90s persist along the Rio Grande. Rain chances also begin to increase Wednesday afternoon and evening for our far eastern counties. The best lift associated with the aforementioned upper-level system will be north of our area, and Convective-Allowing Models indicate what convection does develop here would be isolated to widely scattered. Additionally, convection will mainly be confined to the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos (closer to the highest-quality moisture). As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances mainly range from 20-40% (up to 50%) across these locations, and the bulk of the activity is expected to remain just east of our area.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

The long term forecast is looking to potentially be a very active period. An upper-level trough located over the southwestern CONUS puts southeast New Mexico and west Texas under southwest flow aloft on Thursday. Meanwhile, a dryline sets up somewhere across central portions of the CWA (extending from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Big Bend), marked by westerly winds/low dewpoints to the west and southerly winds/higher dewpoints to the east. Simultaneously, lee cyclogenesis east of the Central Rockies induces a low-level mass response, increasing winds and advecting Gulf moisture east of the dryline. These features bring low to medium (20-50%) shower and storm chances across the eastern half of our forecast area. Instability and lift along the dryline may foster the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the best chances look to be east of Midland/Odessa at this time.

By Friday, shower and storm chances greatly decrease to near zero as models have the dryline moving further to our east. This shifts winds to southwesterly, bringing brief drier conditions regionwide. Winds also remain breezy across much of the area as the dryline shifts east, aided by a 50-55kt jet associated with the aforementioned trough. With that said, fire weather concerns increase across the western half of the CWA Thursday and Friday due to low relative humidity, breezy conditions, and above normal temperatures (see our Fire Weather Planning Forecast for additional details).

Shower and storm chances (generally 20-60%) return to the area Saturday as the dryline retreats back to the west and a cold front moves in from the north. However, the best moisture and instability currently looks to set up across our far eastern zones or to our east as a whole. Ensemble guidance continues to show low to medium (20-50%) rain chances across much of the region through Monday as a broad upper-level low approaches from the west. However, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in how much moisture, lift, and instability will be present this far out. As always, we will continue to monitor trends in the data and make adjustments to the forecast as needed in the coming days. Stay tuned! Greening

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with increasing high clouds. Light return flow will veer to southwest after sunup Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 87 53 75 54 / 10 10 30 30 Carlsbad 89 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 59 85 61 / 10 10 30 10 Fort Stockton 91 56 79 58 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 80 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 43 75 51 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 85 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 87 53 77 56 / 0 0 20 20 Odessa 87 54 76 56 / 0 0 20 20 Wink 90 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.