textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Low (10% to 30%) chance of isolated storms with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds in the strongest storms over the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains this afternoon/evening.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next week, with rain chances slim-to-none outside of the Davis Mountains.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A quiet weather pattern characterized by very warm temperatures and low to very low chances of isolated showers/storms is expected to close the week. Today, lee troughing from westernmost TX into the Big Bend and from southeast Southeast NM into TX Panhandle and elevated heating of western higher terrain result in a low (10% to 30% chance) of isolated storms during the afternoon and evening, consistent with high-res CAMs depicting possible storm development over the area later today. While no severe weather is expected at this time, brief heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds are still possible in the strongest storms. Highs rise into the 95F-100F, 100F- 105F along the Pecos River and on the Upper Trans Pecos as well as Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend. With east/southeast humid, upslope winds maintaining dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s F, limiting overnight cooling, lows tonight are only expected to fall into the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F higher elevations and northern Lea County in northwest Permian Basin, and 75F-80F for the Presidio Valley and Big Bend. Tomorrow, similar high temperatures and synoptic setup are expected, but as the core of ridging over the Desert SW develops west and the southern "ring of fire" mid to upper disturbances providing lift and moisture convergence shift west of the forecast area, very low (<10%) shower/storm chances will be expected. Lows tomorrow night may be a touch cooler as dew point temperatures drop into the 50s F farther east over the Permian and Stockton Plateau and overnight cooling is not as limited. The overall weather pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the Long Term. More details in the discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The hot and mainly dry weather pattern persists heading into the weekend lasting through the forecast period. This is thanks to the upper ridge of high pressure positioned across the Great Basin to Four Corners region. Easterly to northeasterly flow aloft on the fringe of the high pressure will keep temperatures in the low to upper 90s for most locations. Meanwhile, areas along and near the river valleys will top out in the low 100s. Daily low (10-20%) chances of isolated showers/storms are in store across the higher terrain and far West Texas due to upslope flow and shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge. Most locations are going to remain dry. Low temperatures are expected to range from the 60s to mid 70s regionwide each night.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions at terminals with a very low (<5% chance of showers/storms late this afternoon through this evening. East/southeast winds at terminals are forecast, with winds up to 20 knots for terminals between beginning of period-21Z through 03Z-05Z, before decreasing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 69 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 70 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 92 63 91 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 74 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.