textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns today across southeast New Mexico and Gaines County. Critical fire weather conditions develop Thursday, especially across southeast New Mexico and westernmost portions of the area.

- High winds are expected Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Winds become breezy elsewhere.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through at least early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Current Water Vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough set up over northwestern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface trough in the lee of the Rockies extends southward across the plains. This surface trough encourages increasing southerly to southwesterly winds through this afternoon and into the evening. Winds will be most breezy across southeast New Mexico (sustained between 15-20 mph, up to 25 mph), where a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect into this evening. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details on fire weather concerns today and through the remainder of the forecast period. Highs today rebound back into the upper 80s and low 90s across most of the area. Only a low (10-20%) chance of lingering showers and storms is maintained for portions of Brewster, Terrell, and Pecos Counties this afternoon. Low-level moisture and cloud cover returns to the eastern half of the area overnight. As a result, lows once again only dip into the 60s across these easternmost locations, whereas the western half of the region drops into the 50s. By Thursday, the upper-level system moves into the Northern Plains, and lee troughing persists at the surface. Though our area will be south of the main upper-level trough, the proximity of the upper-level jet coupled with the lee trough once again allows for breezy conditions across the region, particularly across northern and westernmost portions of the area. As a result of these breezy winds and continued dry weather, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for westernmost portions of the area Thursday afternoon and evening. A High Wind Watch also remains in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Highs end up similar to today's, and lows Thursday night end up a couple of degrees cooler.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Upper-level troughing persists across the Northern Plains Friday. Lee surface troughing weakens, allowing westerly winds to also weaken relative to Thursday (10-20 mph across the area). Highs remain in the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s for most locations. Another upper-level trough moves across the western CONUS over the weekend. Lee surface troughing once again begins to develop as this system nears Saturday, causing winds to increase again, mainly out west. By Sunday, guidance indicates winds will become gusty across the region, yielding another day of increased fire weather concerns (particularly for westernmost locations again). Highs in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s remain commonplace through the weekend. A Pacific front Sunday evening/overnight allows temperatures to cool very slightly early next week. Nevertheless, highs remain about 10- 15 degrees above normal for late April, and rain chances remain near- zero through at least early next week as the dryline remains largely to the east of our area.

Sprang

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue the next 24 hours. MVFR/IFR CIGs could approach MAF near 12Z but are expected to remain to the east of the terminal. Winds diminish overnight before increasing before 18Z and becoming gusty.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Southwesterly to westerly winds will be prevalent through at least early next week. These downsloping winds help keep west Texas and southeast New Mexico warm and dry for the remainder of this week and through the weekend. Critical min RHs are expected daily across most of the region. Recent wetting rains across much of west Texas have allowed ERCs to fall back near or below the 50th percentile. However, fuels remain relatively drier across southeast New Mexico. Winds will tend to be stronger across westernmost portions of the area through early next week. Rain chances remain near-zero through at least early next week as well.

For today, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for southeast New Mexico and Gaines County in west Texas. Winds today stay generally in the sustained 15-20 mph range, up to 25 mph. However, winds increase Thursday across northern and western portions of the area especially (more in the sustained 15-25 mph range, occasionally up to 30 mph). The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for southeast New Mexico and locations west of the Pecos River tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds largely decrease Friday and Saturday, though additional RFDs may be necessary for portions of southeast New Mexico. By Sunday, winds once again increase across much of the area, implying fire weather products will once again be needed (especially for westernmost portions of the area, where winds will be particularly gusty). Overall it appears winds will decrease again Monday, though dry conditions will persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 64 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 50 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 64 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.