textproduct: Midland/Odessa

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 503 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- A quiet weather pattern persists with near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions through the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 304 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Night Fog and microphysics imagery as well as observations show freezing fog/mist developing south from Chaves County into northern and western Eddy County, reducing visibilities below 1 mile at Artesia. The freezing fog/mist is expected to persist until late morning today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 1231 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Ridging over the Great Basin develops east, expanding over the Desert SW into Southern Great Plains late this weekend into early next week, allowing for a return to warmer than average temperatures and continued to maintain dry weather as large scale sinking motion occurs. Night Fog satellite imagery early this morning and surface observations indicate low stratus/freezing fog over western and northern Eddy County, while skies remain clear elsewhere. Forecast visibilities and cloud ceilings show any mist/fog dissipating by mid- morning. Dew point temperatures will slowly climb areawide today as lee troughing delineated by northwest winds southwest of Pecos River and east/southeast winds south and east of Upper Trans Pecos begins to dissipate. By afternoon, winds shift to southerly with highs in NBM and ensembles rising into the 50s and 60s F, and coolest temperatures for higher elevations and along Pecos River into Terrell County. While dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture will slowly rise into the 30s F from 20s F seen in previous days, the persistent southerly winds and increased ridging aloft will prevent lows from falling below freezing for the first time in more than a week for parts of the forecast area that are not in the south/southwest foothills of higher elevations, the Pecos River Valley, or usual cooler spots of Lea County and northwest Permian Basin. NBM depicts most regions outside of these regions only falling into the mid 30s F, with upper 30s to mid 40s F Rio Grande basin and lee foothills of Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, while some ensembles show either widespread 30s and 40s F and almost no freezing temperatures, or widespread 30s to 40s F with temperatures only slipping below freezing over the Upper Trans Pecos, Pecos River Valley region in SE NM plains, and Lea County into northwest Permian Basin by sunrise Monday morning.

With mid to upper ridging and accompanied large scale sinking motion continuing to expand into the area from the west and persistent southerly winds advecting in warmer air from off the northern MX plateau, highs for Monday in the NBM and ensembles 5F to 10F warmer than today are in store. This translates to 60s F, 50s F Guadalupes, and upper 60 to lower 70s F Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau and Presidio Valley into Big Bend. With expanded ridging, northwest winds veer to west/southwest through the troposphere Monday, with the breezy downsloping winds and resulting adiabatic compressional warming keeping lows from falling below the upper 30s to mid 40s F range by Tuesday morning. As a disturbance at the crest of the mid to upper ridging over the northern Rockies propagates into the Missouri Valley and winds throughout the troposphere again back to northerly in response, another weak cold front develops south through the area Tuesday-Wednesday. However, is this approaching front going to be accompanied or followed by anything more than low precipitation chances, and how long is the cooling behind the front going to last before temperatures warm back to above average? More information on this can be found in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1231 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A weak cold front moving through early Tuesday will shave a few degrees off afternoon highs across much of the region. Highs are forecast to range in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations with the exception of areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio valley ranging in the low to mid 70s. The cooler air behind the front allows low temperatures Wednesday morning to span in the upper 20s and upper 30s regionwide. Long-range guidance continues to show an upper-level trough moving across the Central Plains on Wednesday. Model trends are suggesting the trough is going to pass northeast of the region, resulting in persistent dry conditions where the favorable ascent and moisture for rain stays east of the forecast area. Northeasterly surface winds associated with a surface high pressure lee of the Rockies, holds Wednesday afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. As the surface high moves into west Texas Wednesday night, clear skies and light winds will set up efficient radiational cooling dropping lows into the upper 20s and mid 30s. Temperatures warm back up into the 60s and lower 70s from this point forward. Cluster analysis shows an upper-level ridge axis developing over the region which will place temperatures slightly above normal with dry conditions late next week through the weekend.

Lamberson

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

MVFR or lower CIGs and VIS from beginning of TAF period into 14Z-18Z in patchy mist/fog, with highest confidence in reduced CIGs and VIS for terminals over Eddy County Plains where IFR conditions are being observed over western and northern Eddy County Plains, and lower confidence over Upper Trans Pecos into Lea County. VFR conditions thereafter with winds veering to southerly for most terminals 19Z- 23Z this afternoon. Winds remain southerly with increasing high clouds moving in from the southwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Big Spring 60 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 58 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 54 39 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 32 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 30 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.