textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

-Chances for rainfall today as a cold front moves through the state

-Slight cooler conditions expected by mid-week behind the cold front

-Warmer temperatures will return by late this week through the weekend...with a dry forecast returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

SRLY flow allowed for much warmer conditions across the Natural State on Mon afternoon for most areas...with highs warming into the 50s and 60s. However...some 40s were still noted across NERN sections. Weak SRLY flow continued overnight...which should increase during the rest of the morning hrs this Tue...with moisture levels on the rise. This increased moisture will be ahead of an approaching upper disturbance and SFC cold front...that will move SE through the state through this afternoon/evening.

As the SFC front progresses SE today...chances for SHRA will increase along/ahead of this front...with precip developing across SWRN sections by sunrise. Expect this precip to spread further NE into the late morning hrs...then as the front drops SE...expect the precip to end from NW to SE this afternoon. The front will drop SE of the state by mid/late evening...with precip ending across the CWA around this same timeframe. Best POPs look to remain across SERN sections...which will also be where the highest QPF will exist. Even so...QPF will remain around a quarter inch or less across the far SERN sections.

While cooler conditions will be seen for Wed behind this cold front...temps will only dip into the upper 30s to upper 40s for highs. This cool down will be short-lived as SRLY flow returns by Thu. Temps will warm back to around or even above normal by late this week and through the weekend. Chances for precip through the rest of the forecast should remain low as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Expect the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK to remain in VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast period from Tuesday midday through Wednesday midday. The northern site of KHRO may experience surface wind gusts in excess of 20 knots at the beginning of the forecast period which has been represented by a TEMPO group. The remainder of the central and southern terminals will have CIGS lowered to MVFR and IFR flight category as a cold front moves across Arkansas to begin the forecast period. CIGS will raise to VFR flight category by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. A few rain showers may be possible across the central and southern terminals through late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening as well before moving east of Arkansas. KBPK and KHOT remain designated "AMD NOT SKED" due to a communication issue that is being troubleshot at the current time, but expect the sites to remain "AMD NOT SKED" until observations return to the site.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 28 43 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 33 51 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 26 41 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 31 49 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 31 46 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 34 47 28 52 / 20 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 31 50 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 26 42 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 28 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 32 46 25 51 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 30 48 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 28 45 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 31 43 24 48 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.