textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later Tuesday afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon

-Temperatures overall across the state will remain near to maybe a few degrees below normal through mid-week

-Expect hotter conditions later in the week into the upcoming weekend... with heat levels approaching advisory criteria for some locations

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A look at the synoptic setup or upper-lvl features contributing to the forecast are as follows:

TUESDAY (TODAY) through WEDNESDAY:

The upper lvl pattern will consist of an elongated area of high pressure extending from over the Northern Plains to over the Great Lakes regions of the CONUS. As a result of the positioning of this upper lvl feature, a retrograding upper lvl low pressure center will be forced to move westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over Texas. Arkansas will be situated on the eastern and northern flanks of this upper lvl low pressure center which will assist in keeping the atmosphere unstable and leading to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.

THURSDAY through MONDAY:

The upper lvl pattern undergoes a transition as the northern region of high pressure breaks down. In its place, an intense, but broad ridge builds over the Western and Central regions of the CONUS. Over this period, Arkansas will be positioned on the eastern periphery of this expansive ridge, promoting subsidence or sinking air leading to the suppression of shower and thunderstorm development.

A look at the mesoscale setup or surface features contributing to the forecast are as follows:

TUESDAY (TODAY) through WEDNESDAY:

A stationary boundary positioned across southern Arkansas will begin the process of lifting northward as a warm front. As the warm front slowly progresses northward across the state, low-level convergence will take place and the advecting of Gulf moisture will be noted which will lead to an increase of POPs statewide or scattered shower and thunderstorm development over this period.

THURSDAY through MONDAY:

Into Thursday, the warm front washes out and moves out of the region. In response, a large area of surface high pressure moves into the region across the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The feature is progged to remain in close proximity to Arkansas through Monday. Additionally, surface winds will become southerly, but lifting mechanisms will not be in place required for shower and thunderstorm activity which will lead to this period being defined by hot and dry conditions statewide. High temperatures into the weekend and early next week will make a run at the triple-digits and heat products may be warranted over this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Expect VFR flight category to begin the period between Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. However, precipitation chances will be noted via VCTS beginning on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening which may lower VSBY to as low as IFR flight category which has been outlined via TEMPO groups. Additionally, into late Tuesday evening CIGS will lower from east to west across the state to as low as IFR flight category and is anticipated to remain MVFR to IFR for the remainder of the forecast period into Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 90 71 86 71 / 40 60 70 20 Camden AR 90 69 86 69 / 30 40 70 0 Harrison AR 88 70 83 69 / 10 30 80 30 Hot Springs AR 91 70 85 70 / 20 60 80 10 Little Rock AR 90 71 86 72 / 40 60 70 10 Monticello AR 89 71 87 71 / 40 50 70 0 Mount Ida AR 89 70 84 68 / 10 50 80 10 Mountain Home AR 88 70 83 70 / 10 30 80 20 Newport AR 90 72 87 72 / 50 60 70 20 Pine Bluff AR 89 70 86 70 / 50 50 70 10 Russellville AR 92 72 86 71 / 20 60 70 20 Searcy AR 90 70 86 70 / 50 60 70 10 Stuttgart AR 89 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.