textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

-Daily chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist through at least Monday

-Area temperatures could reach 90 degrees, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees on Monday afternoon

-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast through the latter half of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Settled weather condns were prevalent over much of the FA near 30/06Z Fri night, w/ regional radar depicting ongoing convective activity moving Ewrd over NErn OK. Thru sunrise Sat mrng, there is moderate confidence of fog development over Cntrl to Nrn AR, w/ recent night fog sat imgry depicting some development, coinciding w/ lowering VISBYs on area sfc obs.

Thru the weekend, shortwave low-amplitude ridging w/ modest flow wl reside acrs the Mid-South. Sat and Sun, additional rounds of afternoon convective development is expected along a sfc Theta-E gradient/low-lvl convergence zone, draped fm NW to SE over Nrn AR. Aftn MUCAPE values are progged to reach 3000 J/kg over much of AR, w/ 30 kts of effective shear supportive of some organized storm potential thru the aftn to evng hours. Large 3CAPE values > 150 J/kg wl be conducive of strong initial updrafts, w/ main concerns including large hail and downburst wind gusts. In addition to the severe threat, high PWAT values wl yield very efficient rainfall rates, w/ HREF 90th %ile QPF highlighting pockets of 1.5 to 2" or greater rainfall w/ any development, which may exacerbate recent flash flooding issues.

Mon, NWrly H500 flow looks to incrs in magnitude acrs the Mid-South as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US troughing. A corridor of more organized MCS potential appears possible acrs the lower MS River Valley, as depicted by shear profiles, antecedent instability, and various model depictions in the low-lvl mass fields. For now, low confidence exists on where possible MCS activity may arise, but medium confidence exists on organized severe weather potential for the Ern half of the state Mon aftn to evng.

Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much- anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings were observed on satellite this afternoon across the state. Hi-res CAMs continues to show isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible across parts of northern and western Arkansas this afternoon, then dissipating shortly after sunset. Light E/NE winds will persist through Sunday morning, then veer to the S/SE by Sunday afternoon. An additional round of MVFR ceilings with some fog is possible again overnight into Sunday morning mainly across the northern terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 68 86 70 90 / 30 30 10 20 Camden AR 72 93 72 95 / 20 20 10 10 Harrison AR 67 85 68 87 / 50 30 10 10 Hot Springs AR 72 90 72 94 / 20 20 0 10 Little Rock AR 70 88 71 92 / 20 20 10 10 Monticello AR 72 92 72 94 / 10 30 10 10 Mount Ida AR 73 89 73 93 / 20 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 67 84 68 88 / 40 40 20 20 Newport AR 69 87 70 90 / 10 30 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 72 90 72 93 / 20 20 10 10 Russellville AR 72 89 72 92 / 30 30 0 0 Searcy AR 68 88 69 91 / 20 20 10 20 Stuttgart AR 72 89 73 92 / 20 20 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.