textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

-Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible by the end of the work week and possibly longer.

-No significant rainfall is expected for the next week or so with drought conditions continuing to worsen.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some high level cloudiness streaming across the state from the southern Plains. These clouds are the result of mid level moisture being transported by the subtropical jet. Light and variable winds are currently being observed across the state with temperatures early this morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s statewide. Lows this morning will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday morning bottoming out in the mid 40s with slightly cooler temperatures in higher elevations.

Latest 00z upper air map analysis shows troughing along the eastern seaboard with a cut off low with an associated upper trough over the Washington coast extending southward. An analysis of both deterministic and ensemble model data shows the cut off low and upper trough will continue to dig and deepen through the middle of the work week off the US west coast before coming ashore during the latter part of the week.

At the same time, high pressure will expand northward into the northern plains and into southern Canada as the upper trough just east of Manitoba into Ontario province of Canada by Tuesday. The ridge axis will remain in the central and southern PLains west of the state through the latter part of this week before moving over the state sometime Friday into the early part of the weekend. The aforementioned upper trough across the west coast will come ashore during the latter part of the week. The upper trough will move across the Great Basin region on Friday then lift northeastward around the periphery of the upper ridging over the central part of the country.This will keep the state rain free through the entire work week and possibly through next weekend.

High temperatures today will be in the 70s within the state with a place or two in southern Arkansas perhaps getting into the lower 80s. As we head into the rest of the work week into the upcoming weekend, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal for afternoon highs for the latter part of October.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Expect another period of VFR conditions to remain dominant through this TAF period. Winds will be light and variable tonight...and increase a bit during Tue afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 47 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 45 79 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 48 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 47 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 48 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 48 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 44 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 47 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 46 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 45 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 47 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 46 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 47 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.