textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

-Showers and thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon, with training of heavy rainfall increasing flash flood potential the threat.

-Daily shower and thunderstorm potential continuing through the weekend.

-Slight risk of heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding for at least some portions of the state through Monday, with most extensive coverage Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A decaying MCS is slowly moving northeastward into central Arkansas. Due to lessening robustness, heavy rainfall that was resulting in areas of 1-3" is now unlikely to produce more than an inch in this general area through the rest of today. With that said, areas of clearing in southeastern Arkansas have resulted in recent development of some showers and thunderstorms, so that area may be the area to monitor for flash flooding potential going through the rest of the afternoon. Conditions are expected to gradually improve going through the evening hours.

Looking into the weekend persistent Srthly sfc flow will aid moisture return across the state. Dewpoints in the 70s will be back in place across the state by Sat evening. Temps during this time remain in the mid 80s, this will help keep heat indices below heat advisory criteria over the weekend. As this deep moisture draws northward isolated showers and storms are possible ahead of another MCS Sat.

This round will be driven by a sfc low forming off the Rockies and then moving SSE into Cntrl TX. The main complex of storms will likely remain just to the North or enter the northern edge of the forecast area late Sat before decaying overnight. Reinvigoration along the remnant boundary Sun will be the best chance for widespread PoPs across the Natural State later this weekend.

Next week long range ensembles and deterministic models suggest a more generally active pattern through at least the midweek. Several rounds of rain and thunder will be possible as the H500 jet axis remains just to our north allowing multiple shortwaves to move through the greater forecast vicinity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A stationary boundary over southern Arkansas continues to be the focus for widespread convection which is slowly heading to the E/NE this afternoon. KADF and KHOT will be impacted initially with KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ later on. VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through evening with VFR conditions returning this evening. VFR conditions will prevail across the north. Winds, outside of convection, will be generally light, averaging less that 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 86 72 89 / 10 20 30 40 Camden AR 72 87 73 91 / 70 50 20 30 Harrison AR 65 83 70 86 / 10 40 30 40 Hot Springs AR 72 86 73 90 / 40 50 30 20 Little Rock AR 71 86 73 91 / 30 50 30 30 Monticello AR 73 86 73 90 / 50 70 30 40 Mount Ida AR 71 86 73 89 / 40 40 20 20 Mountain Home AR 65 83 70 86 / 10 30 40 50 Newport AR 69 87 73 90 / 10 20 30 50 Pine Bluff AR 72 85 73 90 / 50 60 20 30 Russellville AR 71 87 73 91 / 20 40 30 20 Searcy AR 69 86 72 91 / 10 50 40 50 Stuttgart AR 72 86 74 90 / 30 50 30 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.