textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected across northern Arkansas over the next few days

-Coverage of showers and storms will increase from north to south through Friday as a front moves across the state

-A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half of Arkansas

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas next week leading to additional hot weather with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, latest regional reflectivity depicts a scattered complex of thunderstorms extending from north-central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This complex of thunderstorms will continue to track east-southeastward overall ahead of an advancing cold front.

Current CAMS trajectory has a complex of shower and thunderstorm activity progged to begin impacting northern Arkansas by midday. In locations in which cloud cover and/or rain cooled air has reached a location, a noted decrease in high temperatures will be noted across portions of northern Arkansas; however in locations where storms are not anticipated until later in the day, high temperatures will once again peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values across portions of central and eastern Arkansas are expected to reach between 105 and 109 degrees warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be present between this afternoon and into the evening hours across the northwestern half of Arkansas. A moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE between 1,500 and 2,500 J/kg via daytime heating may yield a few instances of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Chances for additional rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as the cold front is expected to stall as a stationary front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

Rainfall totals over this two-day period look to favor much of northern Arkansas and parts of western Arkansas per the latest suite of 00Z guidance. Expect scattered areas to over-perform and under- preform across the state depending on where the strongest or most efficient rain-producing convection sets up.

Into the latter portion of the weekend and early next week, the upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas, but quickly by mid- week move eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS by an approaching series of shortwaves over Arkansas via northwesterly flow which will increase PoP chances and end triple digit temperatures across the state over this period bringing a bout of relief that will hopefully stick around beyond the forecast period of mid next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Some scattered convection will remain possible this evening and overnight as a front continues to sag south into the state. This front will stall over central section by Fri morning...with some focus for convection for central sections Fri morning. By midday Fri...chances for precip become less defined...but isolated afternoon convection will again be possible for some terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 90 70 96 / 80 70 20 20 Camden AR 71 95 70 96 / 10 40 30 10 Harrison AR 68 85 68 91 / 80 70 20 20 Hot Springs AR 72 91 70 95 / 40 50 20 10 Little Rock AR 73 92 73 95 / 30 60 30 20 Monticello AR 74 95 72 94 / 0 40 20 30 Mount Ida AR 69 90 67 95 / 50 60 10 20 Mountain Home AR 68 85 67 93 / 80 70 20 10 Newport AR 71 91 71 95 / 60 40 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 72 94 70 94 / 10 40 30 20 Russellville AR 70 89 70 95 / 60 70 20 10 Searcy AR 71 91 70 95 / 40 40 20 20 Stuttgart AR 73 95 73 96 / 20 40 30 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.