textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

-Mostly dry into the afternoon hours this Thursday

-Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and will persist into Friday morning

-Threat for organized severe weather will remain low into Friday

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Mainly quiet conditions are ongoing across the Natural State early this Thu morning...with mainly NRLY flow persisting. This NRLY flow was allowing for some drier air to continue to filter south into the state...which should limit most fog development this morning. Even so...some patchy fog could still be seen through around sunrise...especially across SWRN sections where winds are a bit lighter...and moisture levels higher.

The NRLY flow will persist through the morning and early afternoon hrs...keeping most areas dry. However...an upper shortwave will lift NE over the state this evening and into Fri...with a warm front lifting back north by sunrise Fri. Chances for convection will increase as this wave and front move over the state. Initially...chances will increase over SRN and WRN sections this afternoon into the early evening hrs...then expect POPs to increase further north into the overnight hrs.

The potential for seeing any strong/SVR convection looks to remain low with this system tonight into Fri...mainly due to limited instability given the overnight timing. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen however...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For the 18Z TAFs...

MVFR ceilings are beginning to give away to low VFR ceilings as slightly dry air aloft filters in over the state from the northeast. This push of dry air aloft will shift to a push of humid air from the south shortly after sunset resulting in diminishing ceiling heights and increasing rain chances across the state of Arkansas this evening and throughout the overnight period. By Friday morning, most sites can expect higher IFR ceilings with areas of rain diminishing in intensity after sunrise.

Cavanaugh

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 64 75 62 83 / 70 70 20 30 Camden AR 64 80 64 84 / 80 50 40 60 Harrison AR 62 72 58 80 / 60 70 20 60 Hot Springs AR 64 79 63 83 / 80 60 30 50 Little Rock AR 64 78 63 83 / 70 60 30 40 Monticello AR 66 80 66 85 / 70 60 40 50 Mount Ida AR 65 79 63 82 / 70 50 30 50 Mountain Home AR 62 73 58 81 / 60 70 20 40 Newport AR 64 77 63 84 / 70 80 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 65 79 64 83 / 70 60 40 50 Russellville AR 64 78 62 83 / 70 80 30 50 Searcy AR 63 77 61 83 / 80 80 30 30 Stuttgart AR 66 78 65 83 / 80 60 40 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.