textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing an attendant threat for isolated severe storms, mainly capable of damaging winds and some hail.

- Through the weekend and into next week, an unsettled pattern is forecast, with daily chances for rain and thunderstorms expected over much of the state.

- Widespread rainfall totals of two to four inches will be possible across the western half of Arkansas through mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mosaic reflectivity early Thurs AM depicted a broken line of storms moving ESEwrd acrs Srn MO. Objective sfc analysis indicated a cdfrnt oriented SWwrd fm a Great Lakes sfc low, slowly approaching the Ozark Plateau. Thru the day today, this frnt wl slowly move Swrd into the FA, w/ Nrly winds ushering in drier air.

Aftn SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and NWrly effective shear of 20 to 30 kts wl support some organized storm potential acrs the Nrn half of AR Thurs aftn to evng. Pt fcst soundings indicate some drier air aloft, w/ modest low-level theta-E differences, and 3CAPE values near 80-100 J/kg, alluding to mainly a damaging wind threat w/ any pulsing convective activity.

Into Fri, the aforementioned frnt is progged to continue slowly moving Swrd, stalling over Srn AR by Fri evng, continuing to serve as the focus for PoPs, and an attendant, but low severe threat thru the day. Behind the frnt, cooler and less humid condns wl be seen by the Nrn two-thirds of the state.

Thru the weekend, mean H500 NWrly flow wl persist acrs the Midwest region, w/ broad sfc high pressure lingering over the Mid-South vcty. A Wrly component to H500 flow wl promote lee sfc cyclonic flow acrs the Srn Plains, w/ Srly sfc flow quickly resuming over the state by Sat. As sfc cyclonic flow becomes more organized and maneuvers Ewrd, a broad warm sector is progged to extend over much of the Srn Plains and into the Ozark Plateau. There is still a moderate degree of uncertainty thru this PD, though deterministic guidance continues to suggest a few shortwave troughs maneuvering thru mean NWrly flow, w/ mass fields indicating strong cold pool/MCS activity following the periphery of the aforementioned wrm frnt into Nrn AR Sat and Sun nights. Mon and thru mid-week, H500 NWrly flow wl continue, w/ daily scattered PoP and thunderstorm covg favored acrs the FA.

In addition to severe threats thru the weekend, higher QPF values remain possible thru the latter half of the PD, w/ NBM/WPC guidance continuing to advertise a corridor of two to four inches of rainfall acrs the Wrn half of the FA. Temps thru the PD wl stay near normal values, w/ intermittent bouts of cooler than normal temps behind passing cdfrnts, and limited concerns for hazardous heat condns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR condns were noted acrs the FA late Wed night, w/ only some scattered convection ongoing in SWrn MO. There is some uncertainty about the expected duration of this activity, but current TAFs do not reflect impacts fm this activity if it does sustain. Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs to incrs in covg over both Nrn and SWrn AR near daybreak Thurs. A cdfrnt wl move thru the FA during the day Thurs, ushering in Nrly winds, and the potential for some precip activity along and ahead of the frnt thru the day. Have kept VCSH mentions for now due to higher uncertainties around precip covg and timing. Area CIGs should improve prior to the arrival of the frnt by early Thurs aftn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 89 69 85 67 / 40 20 10 30 Camden AR 91 73 86 72 / 20 60 70 70 Harrison AR 81 65 82 66 / 60 40 10 30 Hot Springs AR 92 73 85 71 / 10 50 50 60 Little Rock AR 91 72 85 71 / 20 40 40 40 Monticello AR 89 74 86 73 / 30 60 60 60 Mount Ida AR 91 72 84 71 / 10 50 50 60 Mountain Home AR 82 65 83 66 / 50 30 10 30 Newport AR 90 71 86 69 / 40 20 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 89 73 85 72 / 20 60 40 50 Russellville AR 91 72 85 71 / 30 30 40 40 Searcy AR 91 70 86 68 / 30 30 30 30 Stuttgart AR 89 73 85 72 / 20 50 30 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.