textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

-Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week.

-A Heat Advisory is in place across southern Arkansas for today as heat index values are expected to reach and exceed 105 degrees.

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi.

SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY:

A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night.

MONDAY through SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas).

Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR flight conditions to prevail through rest of today, winds to remain light and variable. Monday morning CIGs will begin to degrade as showers begin to develop before sunrise near northern terminals. Coverage of showers will gradually increase and become more robust into TS by mid morning. Confidence in coverage remains low enough not to prevail at any site, but expect sub-VFR conditions with gustier winds if a site is impacted.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 87 70 95 / 30 80 30 10 Camden AR 74 96 74 99 / 10 20 20 10 Harrison AR 67 85 69 92 / 70 80 10 10 Hot Springs AR 74 93 74 100 / 20 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 75 90 74 100 / 30 60 30 10 Monticello AR 75 93 75 97 / 10 40 40 20 Mount Ida AR 72 94 72 101 / 10 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 68 84 68 92 / 60 80 30 10 Newport AR 71 86 70 93 / 20 80 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 90 72 97 / 20 50 40 10 Russellville AR 73 91 72 100 / 40 60 10 0 Searcy AR 71 88 70 96 / 20 80 30 10 Stuttgart AR 74 90 73 97 / 30 70 40 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069.