textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

-Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible throughout through early this evening...mainly across southern Arkansas

-Temperatures overall across the state will remain near to maybe a few degrees below normal through mid-week

-Expect hotter conditions later in the week into the upcoming weekend...with heat levels approach advisory levels for some locations

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

In the upper lvls, between today (Monday) and through the middle of the week, an elongated region of high pressure will be noted over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions of the CONUS. Consequently, from the placement of the elongated region of the upper lvl high pressure will result in an upper lvl low pressure center to retrograde westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region of the CONUS to over Texas. The upper lvl high pressure feature begins to break down later into the week and weekend transitioning into a broad, but intense region of ridging over the Western and Central regions of the CONUS with Arkansas on the eastern periphery of the upper lvl ridge.

At the sfc, today (Monday), a stationary boundary will be fixated along the Arkansas/Louisiana border which will equate to increased POP chances to remain for southern Arkansas. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread POP chances will become elevated across the entire state as the stationary front begins to lift northward as a warm front over this two-day period. Into late week and the weekend, surface high pressure moves into the region in close proximity to Arkansas which will assist in keeping POP chances suppressed over this period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Some isolated convection will be possible across SRN sections through early this evening. Mainly dry conditions expected central to NRN AR. Dominant VFR conditions are expected again...especially after any convection dissipates. However...there could be some patchy MVFR fog near sunrise Tue...especially where rain falls. Higher chances that the central to eastern terminals could be impacted by thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 90 71 87 / 0 20 60 80 Camden AR 70 90 70 87 / 20 20 30 70 Harrison AR 66 88 69 84 / 0 10 30 70 Hot Springs AR 71 91 71 87 / 10 20 40 80 Little Rock AR 72 90 72 87 / 0 30 50 80 Monticello AR 72 90 72 87 / 20 40 40 80 Mount Ida AR 70 90 70 85 / 10 10 40 80 Mountain Home AR 67 88 70 84 / 0 10 30 70 Newport AR 71 90 72 87 / 0 30 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 71 89 71 86 / 10 40 50 80 Russellville AR 72 92 73 88 / 10 20 30 80 Searcy AR 70 90 71 87 / 0 30 60 80 Stuttgart AR 72 90 72 87 / 0 50 50 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.