textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Clouds clear out for Sunday with seasonal temperatures for early January

- A warm up is expected early next week with temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal (upper 60s to lower 70s), Tuesday being the warmest day

- Storm system moves through Thursday into Friday, bringing rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms

- Cooler temperatures settle back in for the weekend with average temperatures expected

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Weak cold air advection will continue to push into the area from the north, clearing out the cloud coverage and leaving a mostly sunny day Sunday. Temperatures will remain around average for early January, but things will change drastically starting Monday.

A shortwave trough will move through the Northern Plains Monday, which will shift winds to the SW and bring strong WAA over the area ahead of a dry cold front. Expect temperatures to climb around 15 degrees from Sunday to Monday with most the area in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will increase ahead and during frontal passage Monday into Tuesday morning, with the highest gusts over the Ozarks and Ouachita terrain of 20-25 mph gusts. Valleys will see winds in the 10-15 mph range. This cold front will only have a weak wind shift, but will help a strong warming to occur in the warm sector over the central to eastern portion of the state with highs in the mid 70s over southern AR. Temps will cool slightly on Wednesday north of I30/I40 with that minor CAA from the front. Weak ridging ahead of the next system will make for a nice Wednesday with light winds and mostly clear skies.

Thursday the pattern starts to shift to a more active pattern as a cutoff low opens up and moves into the southern plains as an open wave. This troughing out west will setup a W-E boundary over Arkansas with moisture pushing in from the Gulf in the south. The wave will kick off cyclogenesis over TX with the warm front forming over northern Arkansas. Models have not been completely consistent with where this low will form which could have big impacts on the overall rainfall totals in the state. The strength of the LLJ will also have an impact on rainfall totals. NBM mean is showing two scenarios with a lighter rainfall occurring on Thursday of 0.25- 0.75", or a higher rainfall total with a slower more dynamic system Thursday into Friday of 1.5-1.75" of rainfall. Latest GFS has a much slower and dynamic system, so this will be worth watching as we move later into the week as the state could use a good widespread rainfall. Expect a strong wind shift and increase in gusts on the backside of the cold front with strong CAA moving into the area behind this boundary. This will set up a cooler weekend with temperatures dropping back closer to average temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

The central and northern portions of Arkansas are seeing some shallow fog in the valleys as the ceilings have cleared out. There is only another couple hours of cooling expected, so widespread fog is not expected. KBPK has the highest chances of seeing IFR to LIFR fog as winds shift to the south and southwest, bringing in some fog from the river valleys. This fog looks to clear out by 15-16Z. The MVFR ceilings over central and south Arkansas will continue to dissipate east to west, clearing out all TAF sites by 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 49 38 64 50 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 56 39 68 53 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 54 39 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 54 40 66 52 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 51 39 66 51 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 56 43 67 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 40 68 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 50 36 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 48 35 63 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 53 40 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 54 38 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 50 35 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 51 40 65 53 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.