textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

-Heat Advisory in effect for the Arkansas River Valley into Ern Arkansas Sunday afternoon

-Strong to severe storms possible Sunday overnight into Monday; all modes of severe weather are possible

-Multiple rounds of rain through the midweek, QPFs between 3-6 inches possible through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The sfc warm front that has been lingering in along the AR/LA border over the last several days has moved N of the I-40 corridor. Behind the front very humid conditions exist with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Apparent temps above 105 expected in the Arkansas River Valley today thus a Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon, and Monroe and Woodruff Counties have been added to the eastern edge since first issuance.

Currently out to our WNW an ongoing MCS is pushing east across KS. As it continues east it will begin to weaken across Srth MO. This will leave behind a remnant boundary in its wake that will function as a cold front across Cntrl MO. This boundary will allow for reinvigoration along it by mid-day Sun. Storms along this boundary will move slowly due S into Nrth AR. As this is ongoing another shortwave will form off the Rockies and drive a MCS ESE across KS following the boundary from the proceeding system. Both of these systems will enter the state very late Sun into early Mon morning.

This presentation will present a very interesting/complex storm mode and interactions as the MCS tries to cut across the ongoing convection along the outflow boundary. The environment these systems would be entering is moderate to strongly buoyant with MLCAPE values >2000J/kg that will be enhanced by the LLJ after midnight. The shortwave driving these storms will also help curve low level hodographs ahead of the MCS, 0-1km SRH values between 100-200m2/s2 in NW AR will be the most potent environment for the MCS as it enters the state. This would be the most likely area for traditional QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat. The MCS should overrun the outflow boundary storms and become dominate and transition more to a damaging wind threat as it pushes ESE across the state.

Additionally as these lines interact training storms will be possible across N to Central AR. 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance of 2.25-2.5 would likely get close to being exceeded in longer training storms.

Redevelopment much like what will occur to our N later today will occur late Mon into Tues across C and Sern Arkansas. Areas that were worked over by the complex will be more susceptible to flash flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

Much like the preceding two days another MCS will form off the Rockies and move along the wake of the preceding system eastward. CAM spread remains high on timing and intensity into Tues, but as of now flash flooding across Sthrn AR appears to be the biggest threat with this system.

Through at least the midweek upper NWrly H500 flow will promote several shortwaves and associated MCS to form off the Rockies daily. Exact paths and impacts would have to be determined in a later forecast as mid-range model solutions are still quite wide in scope. Moisture return begins Tues. with return of Srthly sfc winds. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will creep into SW AR and have apparent T's approaching 100 with an increase in deeper moisture.

High temps and apparent T's will continue to rise into the late week as Srthly flow continues to bring balmy conditions across the Natural State. Long range signals continue to show a more active pattern due to the elongated ridge across C CONUS. Several rounds of rain are possible through at least Friday before a sfc high begins to build over the Red River Valley next weekend returning drier conditions towards the end of the month.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

For the 00Z TAFs...

The timing of a line of thunderstorms moving into the state from the northwest is the primary forecast concern during this TAF cycle. Went ahead and placed VCTS in the TAFs during the periods most likely to see storms, and put in a change group in line with the average HREF timing of CAMs across each area TAF site when the strongest line of storms is expected to make its way across the state. This isn't perfect and will obviously need to be amended once we're actively tracking the line of storms on radar, but is intended to give pilots and ATC personnel an idea of when we expect the most vigorous convection to impact each TAF site.

Cavanaugh

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 74 86 68 82 / 70 70 40 40 Camden AR 75 91 73 88 / 40 60 60 60 Harrison AR 70 81 66 80 / 90 40 40 40 Hot Springs AR 75 88 72 84 / 70 70 80 70 Little Rock AR 76 88 71 83 / 60 70 70 60 Monticello AR 76 90 74 86 / 30 70 60 60 Mount Ida AR 75 87 71 83 / 70 70 80 70 Mountain Home AR 71 81 66 80 / 80 40 30 30 Newport AR 75 87 69 84 / 80 70 40 30 Pine Bluff AR 75 89 72 84 / 50 70 60 60 Russellville AR 76 88 72 84 / 80 60 80 60 Searcy AR 75 88 69 84 / 70 70 50 50 Stuttgart AR 76 88 73 83 / 60 70 60 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039- 043>047-121-122-130-138-230-238.

Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ103-112-121-130-137- 140-203-212-221-230-237-240-340.