textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect along & S of I-40 corridor on Tuesday

- Widely scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon

- Upper pattern shift will increase PoP chances Thursday thru Sunday

- Upper ridge settles in next week with hot/dry conditions returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Another couple to few days of abnormally hot and dry conditions will prevail across AR beneath an expansive upper ridge. By mid-week, the ridge should relax and retrograde into the SWrn CONUS while the remainder of the ridge shifts Ewrd off the FL/ N & S Carolina coasts. Between Thursday and Sunday, the pattern will be characterized by a mix of WNW flow and zonal flow. The aforementioned upper ridge is anticipated to build back over the region heading into next week. The ridge could potentially be stronger than what was in place over the last several weeks (500mb heights ~597-600 decameters).

A weak frontal boundary will lift Nwrd across the state today. Temps however will be hot regardless of which side of the front you're on. Max temps should range from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM this evening for locations roughly along and S of the 1-40 corridor which lines up well with the advection of low-level moisture into the state. Heat index values within the advisory are expected to top out between 105 and 110 degrees. Winds today will switch from the E/NE this morning to S/SE by this afternoon. A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled during peak heating hours in close proximity to the frontal boundary coupled with maximized daytime instability. Damaging winds would the primary hazard with any strong storm.

Similar conditions can be expected on Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Heat index values greater than 105 is looking more likely across a larger part of AR. Heat headlines will be reaccessed later this afternoon based on trends up to that point. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out over Nrn AR. Winds on Wednesday will shift from S/SE to SW by afternoon at around 10-15 mph.

Precip chances will increase between Thursday and Sunday as upper level flow becomes more favorable for weather systems to interact with AR. Best chance PoPs will be over Nrn third of AR associated with a passing short wave trough and cold front approaching the AR/MO border. Unfortunately, PoP chances will decrease towards Cntrl AR and even lower PoP chances over Srn AR. Potential rainfall amounts up to 1-2 inches will be possible across Nrn AR. Over Cntrl and Srn AR, expected rainfall amounts should drastically decrease with only a tenth to one quarter of an inch possible. An increase in clouds should limit daytime highs even in the absence of widespread precip. High temps during this period of time should range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Beyond Sunday, upper level ridging is expected to slowly build back into the region with temps increasing and rain chances decreasing.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Scattered afternoon SHRA are possible over Nrn/Cntrl/SE terminals but due to low confidence in placement and coverage, opted to not mention at any sites at this time. Winds will become S/SErly this afternoon at around 10 kts or less. SKC conds should return with light and variable winds overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 100 75 102 76 / 10 0 30 20 Camden AR 104 73 98 72 / 20 10 10 0 Harrison AR 99 74 98 73 / 20 10 30 30 Hot Springs AR 103 75 100 75 / 20 20 10 0 Little Rock AR 101 77 100 77 / 20 10 10 10 Monticello AR 100 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 102 73 100 72 / 20 20 10 0 Mountain Home AR 98 72 100 72 / 10 0 30 40 Newport AR 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 101 74 98 73 / 30 20 10 0 Russellville AR 102 74 102 75 / 20 20 20 20 Searcy AR 101 74 100 74 / 10 10 20 20 Stuttgart AR 101 77 100 76 / 20 10 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.