textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Heat advisory in effect for parts of eastern and east central Arkansas through 8 PM.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the state after midnight tonight as a cold front moves through. Strong storms will be possible along the Arkansas/Missouri border.

- Unsettled conditions are expected to linger into early next with several additional rounds of rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overall, quiet conditions are seen across the FA this morning as the area is under broad flat ridging. Upper flow remains quasi-zonal and is expected to remain so through the remainder of the weekend. Early this morning, temperatures remain warm with readings currently in the 70s for the majority of the state.

Surface analysis places an ill defined boundary over the northeast corner of Arkansas with guidance moving it further north through the remainder of the night. Another very warm and humid day is expected across the forecast area with heat index values in excess of 105 degrees for parts of eastern and east central Arkansas. As such a a heat advisory has been issued.

The heat advisory only goes as far north as Jackson/Independence counties as guidance is showing a cluster of showers/thunderstorms developing over northeast Arkansas during the late afternoon hours. CAMS guidance has backed off on the development of this cluster over the past few runs but the environment continues to support its development. Another complicating factor for convection Saturday afternoon with be the outflow boundary that moved across central Arkansas Friday evening. Boundary is currently residing over western Arkansas and could be a focal point for additional convection during peak heating.

Attention will then turn to a cold front moving into north Arkansas at or slightly after midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning. Strong storms can not be ruled out primarily along the Arkansas/Missouri border where instability will be its highest. Strong gusty winds and some hail will be the primary concerns. The severe threat does diminish through the night but rain chances remain as the front crosses the state and stalls out along the Arkansas/Louisiana border Sunday night and Monday with precipitation chances continuing through Sunday for central and southern parts of the state.

With broad troughing covering the region, low pressure will traverse the aforementioned boundary on Monday with additional rain chances across once again, the central and southern parts of the state while the north looks to be mainly dry. After a generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday, another system will be approaching the region on Thursday.

Concerning temperatures, widespread upper 80s/mid 90s are expected on Saturday with plenty of humidity as well. Temperatures do cool off across the north and to a lesser extent over central sections on Sunday with widespread 70s on Monday behind the boundary. The "cool down" is short lived as temperatures rise back into the 80s/90s to close out the period. Heat headlines may be needed once again next Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through late this evening as broad upper ridging is in place. A complex of storms will be entering northern Arkansas between 05Z and 07Z Sunday across the north as a cold front passes through. Convection will spread south through the conclusion of the period but weakening as it does. Otherwise, winds will continue to be light, averaging under 10 knots and generally from the south to southwest until the front passes with winds then shifting to more of a west to northwest direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 73 82 62 / 50 50 30 10 Camden AR 94 77 88 66 / 10 10 70 90 Harrison AR 86 68 76 58 / 60 90 30 10 Hot Springs AR 92 76 84 65 / 20 40 80 60 Little Rock AR 92 76 84 65 / 30 40 70 50 Monticello AR 94 78 89 68 / 20 10 70 80 Mount Ida AR 90 76 82 64 / 10 40 70 60 Mountain Home AR 86 70 77 59 / 70 80 20 0 Newport AR 92 74 84 64 / 30 60 40 10 Pine Bluff AR 93 77 86 66 / 20 30 70 70 Russellville AR 92 75 83 65 / 40 60 50 40 Searcy AR 93 74 85 64 / 30 50 40 30 Stuttgart AR 93 77 85 67 / 30 40 70 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ016-025-033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.