textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

-Above normal afternoon temperatures will persist through remainder of the work week

-Rain chances will be possible over the eastern half of Arkansas Wednesday night through Thursday, but unimpactful rainfall amounts are expected

-Dry and settled weather will persist through the weekend, with rain chances returning through the first half of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Recent objective mesoanalysis depicted a sfc low moving Ewrd acrs the OK/TX panhandle region, w/ broad SWrly sfc flow over the Natural State. Expect a warming day acrs the FA this aftn w/ incrsg cloud cover by this aftn. Incrsg rain chances wl be noted over the Ern half of the state by Wed evng invof an advancing weak wrm frnt, and in conjunction w/ a passing embedded shortwave amidst mean NWrly H500 flow. Rainfall amounts remain meager w/ PoPs tonight though, w/ area totals only around a tenth of an inch for portions of Ern to SErn AR through Thursday.

Thru the weekend, mean SWrly sfc flow wl keep temps moderating towards above normal values, e.g., +10-15F temp departures at most locations, w/ mostly dry condns expected to persist. Towards the end of the weekend, H500 flow is progged to de-amplify and trend towards a more zonal CONUS pattern, accompanied by a strong Canadian sfc high moving acrs the Nrn Tier and Great Lakes region. Most deterministic guidance remains steadfast on a cdfrnt along the Srn periphery of this sfc high surging Swrd towards the Srn Cntrl US by Sun evng.

Aforementioned zonal H500 flow wl also yield lee sfc cyclonic flow, w/ sfc troughing extending NEwrd across the Ozark Plateau, resulting in a quasi-stationary frnt over Nrn AR and Srn MO. This feature wl bring the next best chance for rain to the region, w/ the Nrn half of the state currently most favored for widespread rainfall thru the early half of next week. The aforementioned stationary frnt is expected to stay rooted over the Ozark Plateau prior to the arrival of a semi- cutoff SWrn US upper low. Discrepancies still remain pertaining to timing and evolution of this feature, which also translates accordingly to QPF.

Looking at the end of the long term and beyond, ensemble mean guidance for H500 flow has been persistently advertising a transition towards a wetter pattern for the Srn US as we head into March, e.g., mean Wrn US troughing and SWrly flow acrs the Natural State.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 412 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGS will be present across the terminals of KHOT, KADF, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ ahead of a cold front expected to move across the state during the early morning hours on Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. The TAFS have included VCSH for the sites of KLIT and KPBF from Wednesday evening into the early morning hours on Thursday. Low level wind shear will be present across the sites in central and southern Arkansas for the first few hours of the forecast period. Surface wind gusts will be present in excess of 20+ knots at the terminals of KHRO, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ for the first few hours of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 65 46 63 40 / 10 20 30 10 Camden AR 74 56 76 45 / 0 10 30 20 Harrison AR 68 46 66 40 / 0 10 20 0 Hot Springs AR 70 52 72 43 / 10 20 30 10 Little Rock AR 67 51 67 43 / 10 20 40 10 Monticello AR 72 57 75 46 / 10 10 50 30 Mount Ida AR 71 50 73 43 / 10 10 20 10 Mountain Home AR 66 44 64 38 / 0 10 20 0 Newport AR 63 49 62 41 / 10 20 40 10 Pine Bluff AR 70 54 71 43 / 10 20 40 20 Russellville AR 69 49 70 41 / 10 10 20 10 Searcy AR 65 47 64 39 / 10 20 40 10 Stuttgart AR 65 54 66 43 / 10 20 40 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.