textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through this weekend.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the forecast period with drought conditions persisting.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels will contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Once again, no significant changes to note w/ the new fcst update... Latest objective analysis depicted highly amplified H500 flow acrs the CONUS, w/ persistent deep troughing over the Wrn US and Sierra Nevada, and ridging acrs the Cntrl US. This persistent ridging wl continue to drive warm and settled weather for the region into next week, w/ daily high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and unfortunately, no appreciable rainfall for the next seven days.

Daily fire danger will persist, fostered by antecedent drought conditions, a lack of forecast rainfall, and drying ground fuels (noted by fcst ERC values >90th percentile over portions of Srn AR).

Early next week, the aforementioned west coast trof wl slowly translate Ewrd over the Four Corners and Cont Divide by Mon, weakening as it does so. Locally, the center of the upper level high wl also shift Ewrd, positioning SWrly H500 flow acrs the Srn Great Plains. At most, this may drive some increasing low-level cloud cover over the FA thru the early portion of next week, and bring some slightly cooler temperatures.

Late next week, there are considerable differences amongst global guidance solns, particularly w/ the evolution of a Pacific NW shortwave trof, set to come ashore on Mon, and progress Ewrd over the Cntrl Plains by mid to late week. At the sfc, a cdfrnt is progged to move into the Srn US late in the week, but there is low confidence on the timing and evolution of this feature, and how much precip wl be possible... if any. For now, base blended guidance reflects low chance PoPs/QPF for portions of the state by Fri, but this is lkly to change over the next few days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds will be out of the northeast around 5-10 mph. Light and variable winds are expected overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 48 81 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 47 85 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 50 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 50 84 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 51 83 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 52 83 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 47 84 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 50 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 50 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 49 84 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 50 82 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 49 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 50 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.