textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

-Windy and dry conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

-Well above normal temperatures likely again today before a cold front moves through.

-Cooler air from Friday through early next week.

-Low rain chances Fri-Sat, with little QPF expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Main focus across the state today will be increasing wildfire danger, especially across the western half of the state. A strong sfc low will move from Kansas toward the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front. As the pressure gradient is enhanced by the sfc cyclone moving through the region, S/SW winds will really pick up throughout the day. Very dry air will be seen across the western half of the state and as RH values plummet below 25 percent this afternoon, the wildfire threat will really climb. In areas where RH values won't be critically low, strong winds will still be seen and winds could gust above 30 mph while the sfc low remains in the vicinity of the state.

The sfc low will continue its way toward the Great Lakes tonight with the trailing cold front making its way across the state. This will mark the end of the this period of well above normal temperatures. Cooler temperatures will be seen on Friday with the airmass remaining dry across the area. Sfc winds will be lighter, limiting any widespread fire weather concerns.

Going into the weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move across the middle of the country. At the sfc, a developing sfc low will develop and move east along the Gulf Coast. This will help provide some rain chances to mainly S/SE Arkansas on Saturday. From Saturday to Sunday, the mid-level flow will turn out of the N-NW over the state as deep troughing is expected across the eastern US. Sfc ridging will spill south across the central/eastern US and much colder air will filter in. A few nights of below freezing temperatures will be seen before H500 ridging moves in from the west and temperatures begin to moderate by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Winds will lighten through daybreak before increasing a bit through the mid-morning hours. NW winds will be in place initially in the wake of a cold front, with some directional change to N/NE through the period. Southern AR may see winds become easterly through the period. VFR conditions will be the norm with some chance of MVFR cigs across central/southern AR terminals near the end of the period along with a few rain showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 39 59 41 / 20 0 10 20 Camden AR 79 45 67 47 / 10 0 20 30 Harrison AR 74 32 56 37 / 10 0 0 20 Hot Springs AR 78 42 64 44 / 10 0 10 30 Little Rock AR 78 43 61 44 / 10 0 10 40 Monticello AR 78 48 68 49 / 0 10 20 40 Mount Ida AR 78 39 64 43 / 10 0 10 20 Mountain Home AR 76 32 56 36 / 10 0 0 20 Newport AR 75 40 58 43 / 20 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 77 45 64 46 / 10 0 20 40 Russellville AR 78 38 63 43 / 10 0 10 20 Searcy AR 78 39 60 41 / 20 0 10 30 Stuttgart AR 75 44 61 45 / 10 0 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.