textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Near daily rounds of showers/storms expected through Friday

- Upper ridging/surface high will build into the region late week

- Temps to increase from below average to above average

- Advisory criteria heat probable late weekend/early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms were in progress over far SW AR early this Tuesday morning. This activity was training along and ahead of a stationary frontal boundary draped from NW to SE over SW AR. This activity is anticipated to move little over the next several hours. Flash flooding will be the main concern with these storms over the ArkLaTex's region. Elsewhere, winds were E/NE on the cool side of the front, with low stratus noted over a good portion of the CWA. Temps ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Precipitation today should be confined to far W/SW/S AR in association with the aforementioned stationary front. Skies should remain mostly cloudy today and with E/SE winds around 10 mph, highs will top out nearly 5 to 10 degrees below average for the date. Enjoy, because this is not anticipated to hang around long.

Synoptically, NW flow will be in place across the region through mid/late week. By late week, NW flow should transition to zonal flow across a good portion of the Cntrl CONUS. Late in the period, SWrly flow is anticipated to setup as upper level ridging takes shape over the SE U.S into the OH River Valley. Early on, upper level disturbances are expected to traverse NWrly flow on a near daily basis resulting in MCS development and/or broken complexes of showers and thunderstorms. Once complexes develop, they should track SEwrd over the region. Low-level moisture will markedly increase with the front lifting back to the N as a warm front later today. Daily PoP chances will start to diminish by the weekend with temps climbing back above to well above average.

By early next week, upper level ridging and surface high pressure should be centered over the Ern one-third of the CONUS. Large scale forcing for subsidence should inhibit organized convection across the area. With high antecedent soil moisture in place (thanks to recent rainfall) coupled with warm and moist air advection on S/SWrly winds, temps are expected to climb into the middle 90s with apparent T's reaching or exceeding heat headline criteria. Heat risk is also on par favoring Major Risk category late in the period (driven mainly by warm overnight lows). Talking about warm overnight temps, readings may struggle to fall below 80 degrees in many locations Saturday night through at least Monday night. WBGT temps may approach upper 80s/near 90 over portions of central AR into Ern sections of the state both Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Long range guidance suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region well beyond the end of the long term period. This would prolong the period of dangerous heat across AR.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Flight category will meander between MVFR and VFR flight category to begin the forecast period as CIGS begin to lower. A complex of rain and storms are expected to impact all sites from Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday as CIGS and VSBY lower to MVFR and IFR flight category as the rain and storms traverse from west to east across Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 81 69 87 / 50 50 40 30 Camden AR 70 87 72 93 / 80 50 30 0 Harrison AR 67 81 68 84 / 60 70 60 50 Hot Springs AR 70 85 72 90 / 70 70 30 10 Little Rock AR 70 84 71 90 / 70 70 30 20 Monticello AR 71 85 72 92 / 70 80 20 20 Mount Ida AR 70 85 71 88 / 70 60 30 10 Mountain Home AR 66 80 68 84 / 50 60 50 50 Newport AR 67 82 70 88 / 40 50 30 30 Pine Bluff AR 70 84 71 91 / 70 80 30 20 Russellville AR 70 85 72 90 / 70 70 50 20 Searcy AR 67 82 69 89 / 60 50 30 20 Stuttgart AR 70 83 72 90 / 60 60 30 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.