textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Upper level high pressure centered to the east of the state this morning will slowly move to the ENE over the next few days.

- Heat advisories and an extreme heat watch remain in effect through Thursday with heat index values forecast to be over 105 degrees.

- As the high moves away, the chances of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase starting as early as Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

An amplified upper pattern remains in place across the lower 48 this morning with troughing extending from the northern plains to the desert southwest. Conversely, upper ridding covers the eastern half of the country with upper level high pressure centered along the TN/KY border. Temperatures early this morning range from the mid 70s to lower 80s under mainly clear skies.

Guidance remains consistent this morning in moving the upper ridge to the ENE over the next few days and loosening its grip on the mid south. As this occurs, the FA will be on the western periphery of this feature with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on the increase starting as early as Wednesday. The ridge will continue flatten somewhat late in the week and over the holiday weekend and precipitation will become more widespread and not just restricted to the afternoon hours. The best chances of precipitation will still be tied directly to diurnal heating but overall amounts of rain are not expected to be excessive.

No changes will be made to the heat related headlines this morning as there is some question that heat advisory criteria will be met after Thursday with increased cloud cover, the expected uptick in afternoon convection and even a little Saharan dust thrown in for good measure. That being said, It would not be surprising to see any type of heat headline beyond what is in place if the uptick in precipitation doesn't pan out.

Regardless if criteria for any heat related headline is reached, its going to be hot with highs in the 90s area wide. The lone exception will be in the higher elevation areas where temperatures will be just a touch cooler.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Sfc winds will be S-SW at generally less than 10 kts. Some gusts to 15 kts possible through this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 74 96 75 95 / 0 10 10 10 Harrison AR 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 75 97 77 96 / 0 0 10 10 Little Rock AR 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 76 97 77 95 / 0 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 10 10 Mountain Home AR 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 76 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 75 97 76 95 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 76 96 78 96 / 0 0 10 10 Searcy AR 75 97 77 96 / 0 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 76 97 78 96 / 0 0 20 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024- 025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-064-065-069-121>123-130-138-223- 230-238.