textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

-Daily chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist through at least Monday

-Area temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees on Monday afternoon

-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast through the latter half of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted elevated precip activity moving NEwrd across NE OK and NW AR. Thru 12Z Sun mrng, this activity is expected continue Ewrd acrs the NWrn portion of the FA. Into the day Sun, a rinse and repeat pattern is expected, w/ hot and humid aftn condns prevailing. MLCAPE values are progged to reach in excess of 3000 J/kg over much of AR, w/ 20 to 30 kts of effective shear supportive of some organized storm potential thru the aftn to evng hours. Similar to Sat, hail and damaging wind gusts wl be the primary severe hazards w/ any storm development.

Mon, NWrly H500 flow remains progged to incrs in magnitude acrs the Mid-South as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US troughing. A corridor of more organized MCS potential remains possible acrs the lower MS River Valley, as depicted by shear profiles, antecedent instability, and numerous model depictions of cold pools developing in low-lvl mass fields. Lower confidence still exists on finer details such as timing and location of MCS activity Mon aftn to evng, but higher confidence still exists on organized severe weather potential for the Ern half of the state Mon aftn to evng.

In addition to aftn thunderstorm chances, area temps are fcst to reach the low 90s over much of Cntrl to Srn AR, alongside dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Aftn heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees or more acrs portions of AR, largely in the AR River Valley and Ern Cntrl AR, and WBGT temps in excess of 85 to 88 degrees. For Jun 1, these fcst values correspond to widespread moderate heat risk over much of Cntrl to Srn AR.

Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much- anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal activity. By Fri and into next weekend, sfc moisture and local precip chances are fcst to return to the Mid-South.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR condns wl prevail thru much of the overnight PD Sun, w/ some uncertainty regarding convective development over Nrn AR near 01/12Z. For now, have kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals. Otherwise, the main talking point for the new PD wl focus on another round of TSRA moving fm N to S acrs the FA b/w 01/21Z to 02/03Z. Low confidence exists on timing for now, but have introduced late PD PROB30 groups for messaging. VRB winds wl be seen thru the day Mon, w/ most terminals holding a light Wrly wind.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 69 82 59 / 50 20 0 0 Camden AR 96 71 89 65 / 10 30 10 0 Harrison AR 88 67 81 58 / 20 20 10 0 Hot Springs AR 95 72 86 64 / 20 20 0 0 Little Rock AR 93 71 84 62 / 20 40 0 0 Monticello AR 95 72 87 64 / 20 50 10 0 Mount Ida AR 94 72 87 64 / 10 20 0 0 Mountain Home AR 88 67 81 58 / 30 10 0 0 Newport AR 91 69 83 60 / 60 30 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 71 86 63 / 20 40 0 0 Russellville AR 93 72 85 63 / 10 20 0 0 Searcy AR 92 69 84 59 / 40 40 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 72 85 63 / 30 40 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.