textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Near freezing temps possible over northern Arkansas this morning

- Very dry air expected is over the weekend, with increased wild fire threat

- Increasing rain chances by mid/late week with pattern change

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Currently, skies ranged from mostly clear (Nrn AR) to overcast (Srn AR) as precipitation slowly shifts Swrd into portions of Srn AR. This activity was primarily in the form of scattered showers with activity expected to diminish in coverage through daylight. Predawn temps ranged from the lower 40s to lower 50s. By daylight, portions of Nrn AR may see temps approach the freezing mark along the Nrn most row of counties in AR.

Skies are expected to clear this morning, however with dry and cooler air advecting into the state, highs are only expected to rebound into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Widespread elevated to near critical fire danger is expected this afternoon across the region. Afternoon min RH values falling into the 15-25% range combined with very dry fuels are the main concerns. While sustained 20 foot winds are not anticipated to exceed 10 kts, the very dry conditions and fuels will make it possible for wildfires to ignite and spread quickly. Outdoor burning is therefore not recommended.

Heading into Sunday, winds will become S/SWrly and temps will begin to modify. Aloft, the pattern will transition from WNWrly to zonal for a couple days, prolonging above average temps across AR. Highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to climb well into the 80s.

Synoptic scale changes appear on the horizon by Tuesday afternoon/evening. Zonal pattern should become more active as a series of low amplitude short wave troughs move out of the Pac NW into the Cntrl Plains. On Wednesday, a surface low traversing the Great Lakes region will have a trailing cold front extending back to the SW through TX. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the frontal boundary. Timing of precipitation favors first half of the day on Wednesday across AR which would limit instability. In addition to timing being off, a lack of upper level jet dynamics should limit storm organization and potential for severe weather. The front is expected to stall across the region serving as a focus for additional convection in the days to follow. Additional round of precipitation is possible on Thursday and Friday with passing successive short wave troughs. Highs during this period of time should range from the 60s to 70s.

The probabilities for much needed rainfall (greater than 1") is increasing across the state. Probabilistic guidance suggest 30-60% of greater than 2" rainfall through Friday night across a large part of AR and 10-20% of greater than 3" rainfall across a smaller footprint of AR. While these probabilities seem low at the moment, remember we are still five-seven days out from the bulk of precipitation.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Asctd lower cloud cover was seen moving SEwrd acrs Cntrl to Srn AR near 06Z Fri night. Thru the overnight PD, expect clouds and asctd precip over Cntrl AR to dissipate, w/ mostly clear skies expected by 12Z Sat mrng. Nrly winds wl briefly incrs fm 10-15Z acrs the FA, w/ winds weakening by Sat aftn. VFR condns should prevail thru the PD.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 61 42 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 66 43 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 43 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 64 43 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 62 43 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 65 45 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 43 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 41 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 60 42 73 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 62 43 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 64 42 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 62 39 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 62 44 75 60 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.