textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

-Frost and freeze conditions are expected this morning over roughly the northwestern half of the state.

-Frost is possible over the southeastern half of Arkansas on Monday morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected early-week through late- week.

-Low end rain chances are possible towards the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Skies were mostly clear early this Sunday morning and dry air advection was well underway as high pressure settles into the region. With dew point temperatures falling during the predawn hours, radiational cooling will be efficient. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s, where Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in place, to the mid 30s to lower 40s over E and SE AR. E and SE AR should have slightly elevated winds overnight which should help prevent frost in these locations where temps do manage to reach the mid 30s.

Today, skies should be clear and temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds should be out of the N around 10 mph. Winds over Wrn AR may shift to the S late this evening as the high moves slightly Ewrd.

Additional frost will be possible on Monday morning. The synoptic pattern would place the surface high along the MS River and points Ewrd into TN/MS with winds becoming calm under clear skies. Main areas to focus on would include E and SE AR where frost has been absent thus far.

Synoptically, an upper level closed low will track Ewrd across the TN Valley today. NW flow will resume locally through Monday. At the same time an upper level ridge will slide Ewrd out of the Srn Rockies into the Srn Plains. By mid-week, the ridge will become stationary to our S invof of the Gulf coast states. Upper level flow will become zonal across much of the CONUS favoring a moderating trend in temperatures and absence of mentionable PoPs. Changes in the pattern could arrive as early as Friday as a couple progressive shortwave systems dive SEwrd from the Nrn Rockies towards the region.

Temperatures this week will begin to moderate as surface high pressure slides further E and winds become SWrly. High temperatures will creep back into the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Clear skies and light winds will dominate throughout the period. Some patchy overnight fog is possible, but advertising anything of significance wasn't of high enough confidence other than KADF. Otherwise, VFR conditions, although low level wind shear noted at KHRO through the morning hours tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 35 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 60 35 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 56 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 36 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 57 38 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 59 35 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 61 35 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 56 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 57 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 58 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 60 39 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 57 34 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 57 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ005>008- 014>017-024-031>033-039-042>045-052>056-062>064-066>069-123-138- 140-141-223-238-240-241-340-341.