textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning along and north of a retreating warm front; then breezy southwest winds today

- Storm system will bring showers/thunderstorms to Arkansas on Thursday/Thursday night and on Friday/Friday night; a few storms could become strong to severe but the overall threat is low

- Much cooler and drier air will return for the weekend into early next week with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Regional satellite imagery depicts an expansive cloud shield across the Srn Plains this morning. Temps were in the mid 40s to mid 50s across AR. Objective surface analysis highlights a warm front extending NW to SE across Srn AR; this front will lift Nwrd this morning with accompanying fog developing along and N of the boundary. Dense fog may be seen at times. Low confidence to residence time and location of this fog will preclude any advisories at this time.

Synoptically, H500 trough was situated over the Srn Plains with the trough axis extending from roughly the TX/OK panhandles Nwrd into Ern CO. At the surface, a rather stout low will eject Ewrd across KS and MO today. Tight pressure gradient surrounding the system will bring blustery SW winds to AR today with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph late this morning through the afternoon. Temps this afternoon should climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s thanks to brisk SWrly winds. Skies should remain mostly cloudy to overcast today. A lot of wind energy will surround this system and winds will veer with height. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with highest confidence across the Nrn half of the state. Despite ample wind energy surrounding this system, instability and moisture will be limited this go around. This will limit the overall severe weather potential to maybe a few strong to severe storms. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk across large portion of AR for Thursday and Thursday night.

Heading into Friday, the parent H500 trough will translate Ewrd across the Srn Plains. A new surface low should spur near coastal TX before lifting NEwrd towards the ArkLaMiss region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday afternoon through Friday night. PoP chances will be greater over the SE 2/3rds of AR with this round. QPF amounts could exceed 1" across this portion of the state. While the greatest threat of severe weather is displaced S/SE/E of AR, far SE section of the state could see a few strong to severe storms. All modes of severe weather will be possible. SPC has highlighted a slight risk of severe weather over far SE AR where instability should be greatest. Temps on Friday should range from the mid 50s/near 60 over NW AR to lower 70s over SE AR.

By the weekend, the upper pattern will shift to the NW as strong closed low dips out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. At the surface a cold front will sweep across the region with high pressure settling into the state through Sunday. Temps through the weekend look to be near seasonal with lows in the 20s/30s and highs topping out in the 40s/50s. Looking into early/middle of next week, NW flow should remain in place however surface winds should switch back to the SW as high pressure slides E of the region on Tuesday. Temps should modify through mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Blend of VFR/MVFR conds are expected overnight across Cntrl/Srn sites with prevailing MVFR stratus at KHRO and KBPK. Winds should remain elevated gusting 10-25 kts overnight, gradually shifting the W, to NW, then N at all locations on Fri. Of all the terminals, KLLQ may have variable winds by late afternoon. Scattered SHRA were moving across Cntrl AR into E and SE AR this AM. Additional round of precip is expected over Cntrl/SErn AR on Fri afternoon into overnight period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 71 50 61 45 / 60 60 0 40 Camden AR 78 58 69 48 / 40 50 30 80 Harrison AR 68 43 58 38 / 80 20 0 10 Hot Springs AR 75 50 65 44 / 60 40 10 50 Little Rock AR 75 53 63 47 / 50 60 10 60 Monticello AR 74 63 71 54 / 30 60 40 90 Mount Ida AR 73 47 66 41 / 70 30 10 40 Mountain Home AR 68 44 59 39 / 70 30 0 10 Newport AR 69 52 61 46 / 50 70 0 50 Pine Bluff AR 76 58 67 50 / 40 60 20 80 Russellville AR 77 45 64 43 / 70 30 0 20 Searcy AR 73 51 62 44 / 50 70 0 50 Stuttgart AR 74 57 64 50 / 30 70 10 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.