textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

-Hot and humid conditions will persist through Saturday across parts of the state.

-Occasional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday.

-Some heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding, generally across northern and northeast Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge today. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS elongating with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a stationary front draped across Central Missouri which is helping assist continued ongoing overnight convection across this region is progged to begin slowly moving southward as a cold front into northern Arkansas. The movement of this feature will bring an opportunity for a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday. However, this risk will be confined to far northern Arkansas.

Into Saturday, the cold front will continue its plight into the Natural State via southern Missouri. The combination of this sfc feature and an upper lvl vorticity maximum that will be in close proximity to the state will open the window for a better chance of severe weather from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Latest guidance does indicate this could be a significant damaging wind event across portions of northern and central Arkansas over this period.

For the remainder of the forecast period, POP chances remain elevated overall as the cold front will take its time to move from north to south across Arkansas by Monday morning. Additionally, afternoon convection is expected to return to the forecast for the remainder of the next workweek.

Temperatures will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday (pre-storm development). For the remainder of the forecast period, temperatures will be near normal values for early to mid July and possibly a few degrees below normal given the widespread proximity of rain cooled air via the elevated POP chances into the weekend and upcoming workweek.

However, a Heat Advisory is warranted for portions of the state on Friday and may possibly be needed on Saturday (especially, if storms develop later than anticipated) as heat index values reach into the 105 to 109 range across portions of the state.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Sfc winds will be variable at times, but generally S-SW at 7-10 kts with occasional gusts above 15 kts. Some TS development is possible, but generally confined to northern Arkansas. Coverage is expected to remain isolated in nature.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 77 94 73 88 / 10 40 80 70 Camden AR 76 95 75 91 / 0 0 40 70 Harrison AR 76 91 70 85 / 0 40 70 50 Hot Springs AR 77 95 76 91 / 0 10 70 70 Little Rock AR 79 97 76 90 / 0 20 70 70 Monticello AR 78 95 76 91 / 0 10 40 60 Mount Ida AR 76 93 75 89 / 0 10 60 80 Mountain Home AR 74 90 71 84 / 10 40 70 50 Newport AR 77 95 74 88 / 10 40 80 60 Pine Bluff AR 77 95 75 90 / 0 10 60 70 Russellville AR 77 97 75 91 / 0 30 80 60 Searcy AR 76 96 73 90 / 0 20 80 60 Stuttgart AR 78 96 75 90 / 0 20 70 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ031>034-039-043>047- 057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.