textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Well above normal temperatures for much of the state through Thursday, then cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Increasing chances of rain from west to east from late week into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts through the period are expected across western AR with amounts diminishing with eastward extent

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Satellite this afternoon shows mid and level cloudiness streaming into parts of northwest and northern Arkansas. Temperatures across the state range from the lower 80s up north to temperatures in the lower 90s across far southern Arkansas. Aloft ,the mid level ridge axis is just west of the state. High temperatures will continue to stay around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through at least Thursday for late September into early October.

Attention turns to the approaching front/trough that will bring rain chances to most of the state. Latest deterministic guidance shows the digging trough and cut off low currently south of the Four corners region. The cutoff low/trough will move into central/southern Plains sometime Wednesday night into Thursday while also absorbing the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo.

Both deterministic models shows the trough with cut off low will become an open wave and lift northward out of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region in response to the upper ridge over the southeastern US strengthening. Model solutions diverge on strength of the ridge with the ECMWF showing a stronger ridge than the GFS. The strength of the upper ridge will keep the attendant cold front just outside of the state through Thursday night. The cold front is expected to finally push through the state on Friday and exiting the state by Sunday afternoon/evening. Cooler and drier air will filter into the state with high temperatures a degree or two below normal for early October.

With regards to rainfall totals, latest run of the ECMWF ensemble shows rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches through Friday across parts of northwest and far western Arkansas. The ECMWF ensemble shows lesser rainfall amounts around an inch elsewhere within the state in the same time frame. The GFS ensemble shows the axis of 1-2 inches of rainfall further east into western toward west central Arkansas, but keeps the axis of totals of 2-3 inches just a tad further east but remaining within the region. NBM 25th percentile shows between 1-2 inches over parts of northwest and far western Arkansas with less than a half inch across southwest, northern, and northeast Arkansas with the rest of the state void of measurable rainfall. The NBM 75th percentile shows a swath of 2 to 3 inches across western and northwest Arkansas with an inch of rainfall along the I-57 corridor south and west to Camden. Areas east of there across parts of each and southeast Arkansas receiving an half inch or less of rainfall. The mean NBM solution is similar to the NBM 75th percentile solution. At this time, confidence due to seeing run to run consistency and ensembles is leaning more toward the 25th percentile being the more likely solution.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Late afternoon satellite obs show the mid-level cloud deck has overspread much of the state. Below it VFR conditions should persist through the period. Light southerly winds will eventually begin to strengthen tomorrow afternoon and may have a few gusts in northern portions of the state before laying back down tomorrow evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 65 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 67 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 68 89 71 86 / 0 10 10 50 Hot Springs AR 68 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 30 Little Rock AR 68 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 68 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 66 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 40 Mountain Home AR 66 91 71 88 / 0 10 0 40 Newport AR 66 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 68 92 72 90 / 0 0 0 40 Searcy AR 65 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.