textproduct: Little Rock

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck should linger across the majority of the region through the daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend. The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs, with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20 degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A warm front spreading northwards across the region has caused dewpoints to soar into the 60s, thus temperatures continue to warm through the overnight hours. Low level stratus and patchy dense fog are accompanying this surge of moisture, as this stratus deck should linger across the majority of the region through the daytime hours. Despite the lingering clouds, afternoon temperatures should still reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is about 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A strong and highly anomalous ridge/high pressure will build across the central U.S., resulting in continued warming starting Christmas Eve and extending into the weekend. According to the WPC ECMWF SAT, this upper level ridging developing shows an expansive area of climatological maxes for geopotential heights at standard levels of the atmosphere for this time of year, which should then not surprise anyone that record temperatures may be set anywhere from Wednesday (Christmas Eve) through Saturday.

A shift in weather pattern has increased temperatures several degrees during this period, and extending into Saturday due to the main Pacific trough energy lingering across the western half of CONUS and eventually cutting off the main flow late this weekend. The main trough associated with the polar jet will progress across the northern Plains over the weekend, ushering colder air into the region starting Sunday, aided by a cold front passage over the region. With persistent high pressure over the Gulf, return moisture ahead of the front advecting in from the southwesterly direction might be enough to spark some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms mainly on Sunday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in much better agreement on this scenario compared to previous runs, with timing of this pattern change the main uncertainty that increases the interquartile NBM temperature range (almost 20 degrees) starting Sunday and extending into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conds should gradually become MVFR/IFR by early morning as low stratus redevelops overnight across much of AR. Conds should improve around 15z once CIGs begin dissipate and or increase in height. Winds on Wed should be SWrly between 10-25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 61 77 60 76 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 76 59 76 / 0 0 10 0 Harrison AR 59 77 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 61 76 60 75 / 10 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 61 77 60 76 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 61 77 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 61 77 61 77 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 76 59 77 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 63 76 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 61 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 59 77 58 76 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 62 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.