textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the end of the work week.

-Some appreciable rainfall is possible this weekend across the state, but confidence in amounts remains low.

-An active weather pattern will develop over much of the CONUS next week bringing additional rain chances to the state.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility around the middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current surface observations shows light and variable winds with clear skies over most of Arkansas. Temperatures early this morning are in the upper 40s into the lower 50s. Lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to 50s. Light and variable winds will prevail through the early morning hours, then light southeast winds during the day across Arkansas.

In what seems like a broken record, dry conditions with above normal temperatures will continue through Friday across the state. High pressure currently over the southeastern US will begin to deamplify later today in response to shortwave trough over Kansas lifting northeast today. As we head into Thursday, both deterministic models show the ridge building back westward into the mid south Thursday and southern Plains on Friday.

On Friday into Saturday, the subtropical jet moves over much of the mid south with a couple of embedded shortwaves passing through the state on Saturday and Sunday. Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS shows most of the state will generally see around half an inch of rainfall with some localized higher totals of an inch or greater across southern Arkansas. The latest 12z 90th percentile ECMWF ensemble shows rainfall amounts of a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall over most of Arkansas. Additionally, the 12z 90th percentile ensemble run also shows totals over one inch across parts of far east, northeast, and southeastern Arkansas.

The mean ensemble 12z run shows a quarter inch of rainfall mainly over the eastern half of the state with lesser amounts elsewhere within the state. A look at the 12z ensemble GFS 90th percentile shows rainfall amounts in the quarter to one half range with locally higher totals across far east, northeast and southeast Arkansas up to three quarters of an inch. The latest mean 12z GFS ensemble shows rainfall amounts of tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall with locally higher totals up to one half inch across east, northeast, and southeast Arkansas. Nonetheless, confidence continues to increase that rainfall totals between one quarter to one half inch will be common this weekend across the state with locally higher totals up to 1 inch possible.

As we head into early next week, the state will see a lull in active weather as a short wave ridge moves across the mid south and Arkansas providing a period of generally dry weather. At the same time, a highly amplified synoptic trough/cut off low will move into the four corners region on Monday, then into the southern Plains on Tuesday. There are timing and placement differences as expected with deterministic guidance with progression of the strong synoptic trough/cutoff low. With that being said, there is some severe weather potential. The latest deterministic runs shows a 50kt+ mid level jet, CAPE values around 500 J/kg, and bulk shear values in the range around 50kt will owe to multiple hazards being possible. That being said, timing of the synoptic trough and placement of the warm sector will be key to the extent of severe weather potential.

Temperatures this weekend through the middle of next will around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late October into early November across the state.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light, out of the S/SE at less than 10 kts. High clouds will stream into the region from the S overnight tonight, but bring no aviation related impacts to area terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 51 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 50 85 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 55 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 53 85 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 53 84 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 51 83 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 49 85 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 53 82 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 52 83 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 50 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 52 84 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 50 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 53 84 54 81 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.