textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

-Well above normal temperatures through much of the period

-Occasional chances for thunderstorms from Sunday through much of next week

-The most widespread/heaviest precip expected across western AR

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

There aren't many significant changes to the forecast this morning as the large scale pattern over the next 7 days or so remains fairly similar to what has been advertised recently. Looking at the H500 level, a persistent ridge will generally reside over the Gulf extending northeastward across the SE US. Extending north of this feature, a ridge axis will move from the middle of the country eastward and will largely be in place across the eastern US. Looking across the western US, a robust cyclone will move onshore along the northern CA coast Sunday and will slowly weaken after moving inland. With time, this cyclone will open and elongate before ejecting E/NE across the middle of the country later next week. What this means for much of the Central and Southern Plains is persistent mid-level SW flow aloft. Well above normal temperatures and abundant moisture will be pumped northeastward. As pieces of shortwave energy aloft move across the area, several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will develop.

For Arkansas, we are generally on the sidelines for much of this activity as the SE US ridge will largely remain more dominant than the systems attempting to work against it. So, western Arkansas will be most favored for precipitation with chances tapering off toward the MS River. Over the next few days, chances for precip will increase from Sunday evening into Monday as the ridge to the south retreats slightly.

By the middle to later part of the upcoming week, the ridge is expected to flatten as the main western trough moves east across the country. At the sfc, a cold front will try to approach from the west on Thursday-Friday and widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across Arkansas. With the ridge's influence weakened, precip may be able to make it across more of the state.

Overall rainfall amounts will generally be highest across western AR through the period with little to no precip expected across portions of far eastern and southeast Arkansas. On Sunday afternoon, as precip develops across western areas, much drier air will be in place across portions of eastern and northeast Arkansas. These areas will see gusty southerly winds during that timeframe. This could provide an increase to the wildfire danger across mainly NE Arkansas Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid level stratus is expected overnight however lower end VFR conds should still prevail, CIGs between 4-5 kft. Winds will become Srly on Sat at around 10 kts or less with BKN to SCT mid clouds on Sat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 84 63 82 67 / 10 0 20 50 Camden AR 84 61 84 64 / 0 0 20 60 Harrison AR 81 62 77 65 / 30 10 70 50 Hot Springs AR 83 62 81 64 / 10 10 40 70 Little Rock AR 85 62 83 66 / 10 10 20 60 Monticello AR 85 62 85 66 / 0 0 10 30 Mount Ida AR 82 62 79 64 / 10 10 60 80 Mountain Home AR 82 62 80 65 / 20 10 40 40 Newport AR 84 62 83 68 / 10 0 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 84 61 84 65 / 10 0 10 50 Russellville AR 84 62 81 65 / 10 10 50 70 Searcy AR 85 59 83 64 / 10 0 10 50 Stuttgart AR 84 62 83 67 / 10 0 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.