textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Above normal afternoon high temperatures expected through the end of the work week, likely longer.

- Low end shower activity tonight ahead of higher chances starting Friday and continuing through next weekend.

- Severe weather potential beginning as early as Thursday, with more favorable severe weather conditions Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Mostly clear skies encompass the Natural State early this morning, although a complex of showers and storms across portions of south-central to eastern Texas will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies and maybe even some low-end shower potential along the southern fringes of the state later today. This activity is due to a weak shortwave upstream of the main ridge in place across central CONUS. The most favorable dynamics will remain south of the state, but some showery activity peaking overnight tonight as the shortwave traverses eastward across the state cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, seasonably warm but comfortable temperatures will continue through the middle of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Longwave troughing across the Pacific Northwest will begin to push the ridge currently in place east of the region going into the latter portions of the week. This will aid in ushering in prolonged enhanced southerly flow and associated moisture levels ahead of better dynamical support as the subtropical and polar jets phase across the Plains late week and into the weekend.

Ensemble cluster analysis shows this troughing feature lingering across northern CONUS through at least this weekend before slowly ejecting eastward early next week. This scenario would result in a prolonged period of southerly flow as a number of shortwaves rotating around this longwave would bring multiple chances for rainfall late this week and extending into next week. Severe weather potential increases starting as early as Thursday, with 50th percentile dew points reach into the lower to mid-60s by Friday. Depending on pattern evolution, the warm/moist sector currently advertised could remain across the state into early next week, which would be a scenario that could lead to multiple days of severe weather. Thus, will have to monitor trends and hone in on the details as we draw nearer on rainfall and severe weather potential. Nonetheless, a prolonged period of unsettled weather pattern late this week and extending into next week is of the highest certainty. Temperatures project to remain above normal levels through the extended period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Expect VFR flight category for all terminals for the entire forecast period from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. A lowered cloud deck will enter the forecast during Wednesday morning, but is expected to keep CIGS in VFR flight category. The western, central, and southeastern sites of KHOT, KADF, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ may experience a few showers, but confidence is low. Keeping the chances for a few showers Wednesday morning through midday for those sites as VCSH. All activity should wane by Wednesday later afternoon into Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 59 81 65 / 0 10 20 30 Camden AR 78 59 83 65 / 20 10 20 10 Harrison AR 74 57 79 63 / 0 0 20 60 Hot Springs AR 74 58 81 65 / 10 10 20 30 Little Rock AR 76 59 83 65 / 10 10 20 20 Monticello AR 79 60 83 65 / 10 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 74 59 80 65 / 20 10 20 30 Mountain Home AR 76 57 80 62 / 0 0 20 50 Newport AR 79 59 83 66 / 0 0 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 78 59 84 65 / 10 10 20 20 Russellville AR 75 58 81 65 / 10 0 20 30 Searcy AR 77 57 83 63 / 10 10 20 20 Stuttgart AR 78 61 83 67 / 10 10 20 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.