textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Above normal afternoon high temperatures expected through the end of the work week, likely longer.

- Low end shower activity tonight ahead of higher chances starting Friday and continuing through next weekend.

- Severe weather potential beginning as early as Thursday, with more favorable severe weather conditions Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Mostly clear skies encompass the Natural State early this morning, although a complex of showers and storms across portions of south-central to eastern Texas will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies and maybe even some low-end shower potential along the southern fringes of the state later today. This activity is due to a weak shortwave upstream of the main ridge in place across central CONUS. The most favorable dynamics will remain south of the state, but some showery activity peaking overnight tonight as the shortwave traverses eastward across the state cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, seasonably warm but comfortable temperatures will continue through the middle of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Longwave troughing across the Pacific Northwest will begin to push the ridge currently in place east of the region going into the latter portions of the week. This will aid in ushering in prolonged enhanced southerly flow and associated moisture levels ahead of better dynamical support as the subtropical and polar jets phase across the Plains late week and into the weekend.

Ensemble cluster analysis shows this troughing feature lingering across northern CONUS through at least this weekend before slowly ejecting eastward early next week. This scenario would result in a prolonged period of southerly flow as a number of shortwaves rotating around this longwave would bring multiple chances for rainfall late this week and extending into next week. Severe weather potential increases starting as early as Thursday, with 50th percentile dew points reach into the lower to mid-60s by Friday. Depending on pattern evolution, the warm/moist sector currently advertised could remain across the state into early next week, which would be a scenario that could lead to multiple days of severe weather. Thus, will have to monitor trends and hone in on the details as we draw nearer on rainfall and severe weather potential. Nonetheless, a prolonged period of unsettled weather pattern late this week and extending into next week is of the highest certainty. Temperatures project to remain above normal levels through the extended period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the forecast period between early Tuesday morning and early Wednesday morning. Surface wind gusts in excess of 15 to 20 knots can be expected across all terminals on Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening before surface winds lose their gusting condition.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 55 76 59 / 0 10 10 0 Camden AR 77 55 79 59 / 10 30 20 10 Harrison AR 76 52 74 58 / 0 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 74 54 76 59 / 20 30 20 10 Little Rock AR 78 56 77 59 / 0 20 10 10 Monticello AR 79 58 79 61 / 0 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 72 53 75 59 / 20 30 30 10 Mountain Home AR 77 52 75 57 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 80 56 77 59 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 57 78 60 / 0 30 10 10 Russellville AR 77 54 76 59 / 10 10 20 0 Searcy AR 79 53 76 57 / 0 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 79 59 77 61 / 0 20 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.