textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

-A Heat Advisory will be in effect today across portions of Arkansas where heat index values are expected to reach between 105 and 109 degrees

-The trend of the forecast period will be a continuation of hot and dry conditions

-Heat Product upgrades in the form of Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed across portions of the state as moisture is advected into the state leading to an increase in the heat index into mid-week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

No major wholesale changes to the forecast as the center of an upper lvl ridge is progged to be locked in directly over Arkansas through mid-week. A slight deviation of this upper lvl feature is noted via the 00Z suite of model guidance during the mid-week, to elongate and expand the upper lvl ridge sliding slightly eastward from over the Mid-South region of the CONUS extending to over the Southeastern region of the CONUS. However, the proximity of this deviation will keep the western periphery of the upper lvl ridge placed over Arkansas and not provide temperature or precipitation relief to the state. The slight deviation of the ridge eastward is likely due to forecasted interaction with the tropical remnants of current invest 97L (as of 1 AM CDT early Monday morning) off the Louisiana coast which is forecast to track northwestward between the Houston/Galveston metro area and the Texas/Louisiana border moving into Texas. However, the strength of this tropical system is expected to be weak with most of the 00Z suite of model guidance keeping the tropical system weaker than a tropical storm and the strength of the ridge will keep this tropical feature from having any bearing on weather conditions across Arkansas.

By the weekend, the upper lvl ridge builds back over Arkansas. The forecast period from today (Monday) through Sunday will relate closely to a persistence forecast with one exception. A persistence forecast of hot and dry conditions where air temperature is nearly identical each day across the CWA and POP chances remain constant near zero. The one exception will be the slight increase of dewpoint temperatures by a few degrees by mid-week through the remainder of the forecast. The increase of the dewpoint temperature by a minuscule amount of a few degrees will translate to a critical increase of the heat index value. Expect heat products to become widespread across the CWA and state of Arkansas over the duration of the forecast period with a few locations likely to move beyond a Heat Advisory into Extreme Heat Warning territory in locations forecast to have heat index values peak at 110 degrees or above.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the period. This afternoon clouds will build in across the state, but no degradation of CIGs or Vis is expected. Relatively light southerly winds will decrease this evening after sunset and skies will also clear out until tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 75 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 74 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 72 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-138-230- 238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016- 017-025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-138- 230-238.