textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

-A few rounds of scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday morning and Monday evening over northern to central Arkansas

-Area temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees Monday afternoon

-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast through the latter half of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Recent mosaic radar imgry depicted a convective complex moving Ewrd thru SErn kS, w/ additional development ongoing acrs Cntrl MO. Radar trends, and 00Z CAM guidance suggest this activity could move into Nrn AR near 12Z Mon mrng, and pose some isolated severe threat, primarily for hail and damaging winds.

An additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast acrs portions of Nrn to Cntrl AR Mon aftn to evng. NWrly H500 flow wl incrs in magnitude acrs the Mid-South as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US troughing. Short term guidance has been consistent the past few days w/ depictions of cold pool development along an axis of MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25 to 30 knots. 00Z CAM guidance and HREF mean output suggest clusters of storms developing b/w 21-00Z acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR. Marginal shear profiles will support cold pool consolidation and possibly a window of MCS maintenance Swrd into Cntrl AR thru late Mon evng.

An initial and downstream environment characterized by favorable low- level thermal profiles (Td depressions > 10C), mid-level dry air, and low-level Theta-E differences > 30C wl be supportive of damaging wind gusts where any bow echoes develop.

Regarding placement of severe weather, CAM guidance has not been consistent w/ CI, and has been struggling w/ handling ongoing convection acrs SErn KS and Cntrl MO. It is important to note that timing and placement of CI over Nrn AR Mon aftn wl be impacted and lkly driven by any residual outflow boundaries fm aforementioned convection, assuming it moves SEwrd into the Mid-South later Mon mrng. This may also help determine the Ewrd extent of activity Mon aftn, depending on the magnitude of any residual outflow.

In addition to aftn thunderstorm chances, area temps are fcst to reach the low 90s over much of Cntrl to Srn AR, alongside dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Aftn heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees or more acrs portions of AR, largely in the AR River Valley and Ern Cntrl AR, and WBGT temps in excess of 85 to 88 degrees. For Jun 1, these fcst values correspond to widespread moderate heat risk over much of the FA.

Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much- anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal activity.

By Fri and into next weekend, sfc high pressure wl shift Ewrd, w/ weak SWrly H500 flow returning to the Cntrl US. As sfc flow becomes Srly again, low level moisture and area precip chances wl increase over the FA thru the end of the PD.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Expect VFR flight category over the majority of the forecast period from early Monday afternoon through early Tuesday afternoon across all sites with the exception of CIGS lowering to MVFR at the site of KHRO early Tuesday morning before lifting later Tuesday morning. A boundary will near the Arkansas/Missouri border with possible thunderstorm development statewide from north to south throughout Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Expect isolated to scattered TSRA across the state with the ability to produce surface winds in excess of 45+ knots and cells will once again be in a conducive environment for downburst/microburst and vertical extent of storms to heights of 50,000+ feet will be possible. Additionally, low level wind shear will be present briefly across all terminals for a few hours this afternoon into this evening ahead of the frontal boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 69 81 58 79 / 50 0 0 0 Camden AR 71 88 64 84 / 30 10 10 0 Harrison AR 67 80 56 77 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 72 85 63 82 / 50 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 82 62 80 / 50 10 0 0 Monticello AR 72 86 65 82 / 40 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 72 85 63 81 / 40 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 67 80 57 77 / 10 10 0 0 Newport AR 69 82 60 81 / 50 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 84 63 82 / 40 10 0 0 Russellville AR 72 84 63 81 / 50 10 0 0 Searcy AR 69 82 59 81 / 50 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 72 84 63 81 / 60 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.