textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

-Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through Sunday

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Conditions across the state today will be very similar to what was experienced on Friday. High temperatures in the 97-102 F range and dewpoints in the 50s/60s F will allow afternoon min RH values to fall below the 30th percentile. Sfc winds will remain fairly light, with slightly increased S/SW winds across western portions of the state.

Over the next couple of days the H500 ridge that has been in place across Arkansas for the past few weeks may finally break down and shift south of the region. This long overdue change is due to mid-level troughing expected to move east across the Central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the frontal passage, an increase in precip development is expected from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely across western and northern portions of the state. Widespread meaningful precipitation is not expected, but some localized relief could be seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are expected across the state, but temperatures will generally remain near to below seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much of next week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with sfc winds becoming S/SW at less than 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 99 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 96 71 95 69 / 0 0 0 60 Hot Springs AR 98 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 99 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 99 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 97 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 98 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 40 Newport AR 100 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 98 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 100 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 025-033-034-046-047-057.