textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Warming temperatures will be seen again across the forecast area this afternoon.

- Very dry air, critically dry short-term fuels, and gusty southwest winds will keep local wildfire danger elevated again this afternoon.

- A cold front on Wednesday will usher in a period of more seasonable to cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Not many changes to advertise to the forecast, w/ warming trends expected thru mid-week prior to the arrival of an initial cdfrnt on Wed, w/ colder and seasonable temps returning thru the end of the week.

Recent objective sfc analyses depicted sfc high pressure draped acrs the Srn Gulf Coast, w/ strong sfc low pressure moving over the Great Lakes region. Another warm day is on deck for the Natural State, w/ afternoon temps expected to climb to the mid to upper 60s today. In addition to warmer temps, gusty W-SWrly winds wl overspread the region, w/ gusts of 20-25 kts possible over much of Nrn AR. This wl also contribute to an elevated threat of wildfire danger as area short term fuel moisture remain very dry (generally 10%).

Wed, a strong cdfrnt is expected to sweep acrs the state thru the day, ushering in more seasonable air to the Srn Cntrl US. Some low- chc PoPs may accompany the FROPA Wed aftn to evng, mainly acrs Nrn to NErn AR, but overall rainfall amounts are expected to remain minimal, generally less than a few tenths of an inch. In the wake of this frnt, cold morning lows wl overspread the state on Thurs mrng, w/ area temps in the upper teens to low to mid 20s, and wind chill values generally in the teens.

Thru the end of the week, cooler and settled weather will prevail as mean upper troughing stays rooted over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, driving broad subsidence over the FA. Per the latest suite of GFS/ECMWF guidance, another cdfrnt looks to move thru the Cntrl US on Sat, w/ colder morning temps and wind chills possible on Sun mrng, e.g., low temps in the mid to upper teens and wind chills in the single digits acrs Nrn AR.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. Light winds expected through the overnight hours. By late Tuesday morning, southwest winds at all terminals will become breezy with gusts up to 22 kts with localized higher gusts as the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the approaching cold front. A small lull in winds is possible near the end of the TAF period around sunset on Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 44 52 23 / 0 50 20 0 Camden AR 64 42 57 26 / 0 10 10 0 Harrison AR 67 42 49 20 / 0 40 10 0 Hot Springs AR 64 44 55 25 / 0 20 10 0 Little Rock AR 65 44 55 26 / 0 30 20 0 Monticello AR 64 45 57 28 / 0 10 30 0 Mount Ida AR 66 44 55 24 / 0 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 69 42 49 20 / 0 50 10 0 Newport AR 64 44 52 23 / 0 60 30 0 Pine Bluff AR 65 44 56 26 / 0 20 30 0 Russellville AR 67 43 56 24 / 0 20 10 0 Searcy AR 66 42 54 22 / 0 50 20 0 Stuttgart AR 63 44 54 25 / 0 30 30 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.