textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 242 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

-Record setting warmth continuing through the rest of the week and extending into this weekend

-Rain chances increasing late weekend, with much cooler temperatures settling into the region through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record setting warmth that surged into the region yesterday will continue over the next several days, as a historically strong (>99th percentile) mid-level ridging and surface high pressure builds across central CONUS through the rest of the week. Due to the warmer than expected temperatures yesterday, bumped up the temperatures several degrees through the rest of the week, where highs across the state in the upper 70s to lower 80s will challenge daily record high temperatures (and overnight warm lows) through the Christmas holiday and into the weekend.

A pattern change is set for Sunday as a much colder polar airmass surges southward across the eastern half of CONUS. The low center is currently pegged to track over the Great Lakes region, but a frontal band extending southwestward will bring increasing rain chances for Sunday. Based on previous model guidance, this upper level trough progression is a bit slower. The change in the current forecast is warmer afternoon temperatures on Sunday as the frontal passage is timing-wise more for the evening to overnight hours Sunday into Monday.

Much colder temperatures back to below normal levels by up to 10 degrees will then linger across the state through the early portions of the week. The weather pattern will then gradually modify as strong northwesterly flow aloft persists through the middle of next week before modifying into more zonal flow with gradual warming going through the end of next week. The main uncertainties apparent in the extended outlook will be the pace to which the upper level trough that'll impact the region starting Sunday will progress eastward, which then impact how quickly temperatures may warm mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conds should gradually become MVFR, possibly IFR, by early morning as low stratus tries to redevelop across much of AR. Conds should improve around 15/16z once CIGs begin dissipate and or increase in height. Winds on Wed should be SWrly between 10-25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 77 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 76 59 76 60 / 0 10 0 0 Harrison AR 77 62 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 76 60 75 62 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 77 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 77 60 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 77 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 76 59 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 76 61 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 60 76 62 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 79 60 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 77 58 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 76 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.