textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

-Temperatures across the state will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal for today and possibly across parts of Arkansas on Saturday.

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather will be present on Friday across the northern one-fourth of the state with the main hazards of damaging wind gusts and instances of severe hail.

-A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather will be present from the I-40 corridor between Little Rock to Memphis and locations northward on Saturday with damaging wind gusts which may be significant in a few locations as the primary hazard.

-A Heat Advisory will be warranted across portions of Arkansas as heat index values of 105 to 109 will be widespread across the advisory area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge today. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS elongating with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a stationary front draped across Central Missouri which is helping assist continued ongoing overnight convection across this region is progged to begin slowly moving southward as a cold front into northern Arkansas. The movement of this feature will bring an opportunity for a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday. However, this risk will be confined to far northern Arkansas.

Into Saturday, the cold front will continue its plight into the Natural State via southern Missouri. The combination of this sfc feature and an upper lvl vorticity maximum that will be in close proximity to the state will open the window for a better chance of severe weather from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Latest guidance does indicate this could be a significant damaging wind event across portions of northern and central Arkansas over this period.

For the remainder of the forecast period, POP chances remain elevated overall as the cold front will take its time to move from north to south across Arkansas by Monday morning. Additionally, afternoon convection is expected to return to the forecast for the remainder of the next workweek.

Temperatures will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday (pre-storm development). For the remainder of the forecast period, temperatures will be near normal values for early to mid July and possibly a few degrees below normal given the widespread proximity of rain cooled air via the elevated POP chances into the weekend and upcoming workweek.

However, a Heat Advisory is warranted for portions of the state on Friday and may possibly be needed on Saturday (especially, if storms develop later than anticipated) as heat index values reach into the 105 to 109 range across portions of the state.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Expect VFR flight category over the period from early Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Low level wind shear will be present across the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, KLIT from the start of the forecast period through Friday morning. Surface wind gusts in excess of 20 knots will be anticipated at the sites of KHRO, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT. Additionally, PROB 30 groups have been introduced for KHRO and KBPK which may see some TSRA and gusty surface winds on Friday afternoon in excess of 35 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 75 92 72 / 40 30 60 70 Camden AR 96 76 95 74 / 0 0 20 50 Harrison AR 93 74 89 70 / 10 20 60 80 Hot Springs AR 96 77 95 75 / 0 0 30 60 Little Rock AR 96 78 95 76 / 0 0 40 70 Monticello AR 96 78 95 75 / 0 0 30 60 Mount Ida AR 93 76 92 74 / 0 0 30 60 Mountain Home AR 92 73 88 71 / 30 40 50 70 Newport AR 94 76 93 73 / 40 30 50 70 Pine Bluff AR 96 77 95 74 / 0 0 40 60 Russellville AR 97 78 95 75 / 10 0 40 70 Searcy AR 95 75 94 73 / 20 10 50 70 Stuttgart AR 95 78 95 75 / 10 10 40 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.