textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- High pressure will drive the short term forecast, with warming temperatures noted across the forecast area today and Tuesday.

- Very dry air, critically dry short-term fuels, and gusty southwest winds will keep local wildfire danger elevated the next few days.

- A cold front on Wednesday will usher in a period of more seasonable to cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Recent nighttime sat imgry depicted mostly clear skies over the Natural State, w/ broad sfc high pressure extending SW to NE over the Srn Cntrl US. Thru the day Mon, the center of sfc high pressure should shift E-SEwrd, w/ a stronger sfc pressure gradient developing acrs the Nrn half of the state. Under this pattern, Mon wl see the return of SWrly winds and temps trending upwards towards the 60s in some locations. Significantly dry air, characterized by dewpoint temps in the teens to low to mid 20s wl remain in place, and some locations may see afternoon min RH values less than 25%, given the potential for adiabatic warming and drying fm downward momentum transport.

As previously mentioned, warming temps wl continue again on Tues as low-lvl SWrly flow persists, w/ aftn high temps set to climb to the mid to upper 60s at most locations. A pattern change is expected to unfold by mid-week though, as mean H500 troughing wl stay rooted over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

Latest deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF are fairly consistent on the evolution of H500 flow by mid-week, w/ a highly amplified trof digging aggressively into the Srn US. This trof wl feature strong meridional flow over the Nrn Cntrl US, allowing for Canadian Continental air to surge into the Great Plains. The Natural State wl see a strong cdfrnt and asctd NWrly flow move thru the region on Wed, along w/ some low-chance PoPs acrs Nrn to Ern AR Wed aftn to evng.

Particularly cold air should settle in on Thurs mrng, w/ latest NBM guidance depicting low temps in the upper teens to low 20s at most locations (which closely resembles 25th percentile values). In the wake of this frnt, more seasonable temps wl prevail acrs the FA, w/ daily highs in the 40s to 50s thru the end of the week.

Late in the PD, another shot of anomalously cold air appears possible as deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicating a strong vorticity max pivoting thru mean troughing flow. Some uncertainties remain around timing and precip potential w/ the latter system, but the long term trends suggest colder condns prevailing thru at least the latter half of the fcst PD and into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. Light winds expected through the evening and overnight hours. By late Tuesday morning, southwest winds at all terminals will become breezy with gusts up to 22 kts with localized higher gusts as the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the approaching cold front. A small lull in winds is possible near the end of the TAF period around sunset on Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 38 68 44 54 / 0 0 20 20 Camden AR 33 65 41 58 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 41 68 42 49 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 35 65 44 55 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 36 66 44 55 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 36 66 45 58 / 0 0 0 30 Mount Ida AR 38 67 44 55 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 37 69 42 50 / 0 0 20 10 Newport AR 35 65 44 54 / 0 0 30 30 Pine Bluff AR 35 65 44 56 / 0 0 0 30 Russellville AR 34 68 43 56 / 0 0 10 10 Searcy AR 32 68 42 55 / 0 0 20 20 Stuttgart AR 35 64 44 54 / 0 0 10 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.