textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today; large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday and Wednesday; large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible

- Quiet weather is expected Thursday through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Expansive stratus deck was overspreading the state from the S this morning as low-level moisture advection was well underway. Temps ranged from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Dew pts ranged from upper 40s (Nrn AR) to lower 60s (Srn AR).

Today, a low amplitude upper short-wave trough will track across the state triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon hours. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Temps today are expected to climb into the lower to upper 70s. Dew pt temps are anticipated to creep into the mid/upper 60s over the Srn two-thirds of the state. Storms are initially expected to develop over SW AR, elevated in nature, posing a large hail threat with storms following the mean wind from the W. SBCIN should decrease through the morning hours allowing storms to become increasingly surface based as this activity moves Ewrd. EBWD is expected to range from 20-45 kts, sufficient for sustaining updrafts. SBCAPE and MLCAPE profiles of 1000-1500 J/Kg should drive the large hail potential and a damaging wind threat. Midday hodographs feature modest clockwise curvature in the lowest portion of the atmosphere posing a low end chance of a tornado or two but would be more favorable for deviate SErly moving cells. The bulk of convection should move into far E and SE AR by early afternoon. Precipitation should wind down during the afternoon and early evening hours as these storms grow upscale into a complex or cluster of storms. The main areas to be impacted by strong to severe storms would be the SE half of AR. Rain chances dramatically decrease across NW and N-Cntrl AR.

The pattern will remain active on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough and associated closed low eject into the Srn Plains. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the region. As upper level impulses move through the flow in conjunction with large scale background ascent, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. AR will reside fully within the warm sector. SBCAPE and MLCAPE is expected to range from 1000-1500 J/Kg with 0-1km and 0-3km storm relative helicity of 150 m2/s2 and 200 m2/s2 respectively. EBWD is anticipated to increase from 30 kts Tuesday afternoon to 60 kts Tuesday night. If storms can remain discrete, all modes of severe weather will be possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday as the aforementioned upper trough passes over the region atop a trailing surface cold front. Thinking forcing for ascent will be robust leading to storms quickly growing upscale into a cluster or QLCS. All modes of severe weather will be possible once again however heavy rain may be the most notable feature Wednesday. Where storms train, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" is anticipated through Wednesday across a large part of AR. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible.

Beyond Wednesday, a cold front will push across the area beneath NW flow aloft. This front will bring tranquil conditions back into the region for several days. High temps on Thursday should be coolest through the period with readings topping out in the 50s and 60s under the influence of high pressure and light Nrly winds. Thereafter, temps will climb back into the 70s to lower 80s on SWrly surface winds as the surface high departs the region to the E.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

As a cold front approaches from the north, flight category will become degraded across all terminals in terms of CIGS as MVFR and IFR flight category will be expected across most sites on Tuesday midday into Tuesday afternoon. However, MVFR CIGS will be present for the majority of the period between early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. A few sites will experience CIGS which will lift into VFR later Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Rain and thunderstorm activity will overspread the state of Arkansas throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Low level wind shear will be present at the sites of KHRO and KBPK for the first few hours of the forecast period. Expect surface wind gusts across all terminals in excess of 25 knots for the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 65 72 39 / 40 70 100 20 Camden AR 81 64 75 43 / 50 50 100 70 Harrison AR 80 62 70 36 / 30 80 100 0 Hot Springs AR 78 62 72 41 / 60 80 100 40 Little Rock AR 80 65 73 42 / 50 70 100 50 Monticello AR 82 67 79 47 / 30 30 90 80 Mount Ida AR 78 62 74 39 / 70 90 100 30 Mountain Home AR 81 62 71 36 / 20 80 100 0 Newport AR 79 66 72 42 / 40 70 100 40 Pine Bluff AR 81 65 75 43 / 40 50 100 70 Russellville AR 80 64 74 39 / 60 80 100 20 Searcy AR 80 63 73 40 / 50 70 100 40 Stuttgart AR 80 66 74 43 / 40 60 100 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.