textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

-Daily hazardous heat and humidity will persist through the work week, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

-Widespread rain chances return to the forecast by late week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thru the next few days, hazardous heat and humidity levels wl continue to be the main talking point acrs the FA. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees. The greatest concern for heat risk and hazardous heat levels wl exist acrs the AR River Valley, and much of Ern AR and the River Delta regions.

Thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe, there is reasonable consensus on the evolution of an upper trof set to move acrs the Great Lakes regions, w/ asctd sfc cyclonic flow and a trailing cdfrnt extending SWwrd into the Ozark Plateau and Srn Plains late Thurs evng. There wl lkly be an attendant isolated severe threat acrs NWrn ahead of the frnt as it approaches into moderate instability, but weaker effective shear, generally less than 30 knots. Main threats w/ any ongoing storms would be large hail and damaging winds.

The aforementioned frnt is progged to stall out acrs the Ozark Plateau vcty, and become the focus for daily PoPs thru the weekend. NBM guidance remains settled on weekend QPF totals around 2 to 3 inches acrs at least the Wrn half of the state, w/ probabilistic QPF thresholds for at least two inches up to 40 to 50%. For now, there is still higher uncertainty w/ NBM IQR spread around 2 inches, and 10th to 90th percentile spread closer to 4 inches over much of the state.

GFS/ECMWF fcst mass fields continue to indicate higher deterministic QPF progs are contributable to mesoscale features in the model output, and still have a higher degree of variability in time and space at the end range of the current fcst PD. Ensemble guidance remains rooted on widespread rainfall potential over the Srn Plains during the Sun-Tues timeframe, w/ a favorable synoptic pattern for possibly heavy to excessive rainfall at times.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Expect primarily VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Some patchy MVFR conditions may be seen at HOT/ADF during Thu morning. Some convection may become possible late in the period for the NRN terminals...but better chances will come just beyond this TAF period/after 00Z Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 94 74 88 / 0 0 80 20 Camden AR 77 94 77 90 / 0 0 40 60 Harrison AR 75 89 67 83 / 0 0 90 10 Hot Springs AR 79 93 77 88 / 0 0 60 70 Little Rock AR 79 93 77 88 / 0 0 50 50 Monticello AR 78 95 78 91 / 0 0 40 60 Mount Ida AR 78 91 76 86 / 0 0 50 70 Mountain Home AR 75 91 68 84 / 0 0 90 10 Newport AR 77 94 75 88 / 0 0 70 30 Pine Bluff AR 78 94 78 88 / 0 0 50 50 Russellville AR 79 93 76 88 / 0 0 60 40 Searcy AR 77 94 75 89 / 0 0 50 40 Stuttgart AR 79 94 78 88 / 0 0 50 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.