textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

-Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through Sunday

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

One more day of widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s F to around 100 F. Td values are expected to be slightly higher than what was observed on Saturday, but afternoon min RH values are still expected to bottom out near the 30th percentile. Sfc winds will remain out of the S/SW at generally less than 10 mph with some occasional gusts, especially across portions of western and northern AR.

The H500 ridge that has been in place across Arkansas for the past few weeks is expected to finally break down and shift south of the region over the next couple of days. This long overdue change is due to a mid-level low expected to move east across the Central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the front, an increase in precip development is expected from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely across western and northern portions of the state. Did include some broader low pops on Monday, but widespread meaningful precipitation is not expected. Some localized relief could be seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are expected across the state, but temperatures will generally remain near to above seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much of the week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditons will prevail through a majority of the period at TAF sites. Light surface winds will presist through the period, south-southwest ahead of an approaching surface cold front from the central Plains this evening into western and northwest Arkansas. The front will intiate scattered showers and thunderstorms over northwest Arkansas around 22z with worsening flight conditions bringing brief drops in CIGs and VIS around 00 to 04z at northern terminals. Winds will veer to the north- northwest behind the front but remain light. The cold front will move southeast across the state with veering winds expected at central terminals behind the front near the end of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 96 68 87 / 0 30 10 10 Camden AR 72 98 70 93 / 0 20 10 10 Harrison AR 69 87 64 79 / 30 50 10 10 Hot Springs AR 73 96 70 89 / 0 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 74 96 71 88 / 0 20 10 10 Monticello AR 74 97 72 92 / 0 20 20 0 Mount Ida AR 69 95 67 89 / 0 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 70 89 65 81 / 20 50 20 10 Newport AR 73 96 69 87 / 0 20 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 97 70 90 / 0 10 20 0 Russellville AR 72 94 69 88 / 0 30 10 10 Searcy AR 71 97 69 88 / 0 20 20 10 Stuttgart AR 74 99 71 91 / 0 10 20 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.