textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A cold front will progress south across the state Monday bringing a few showers/storms to the area

- Behind the front, much cooler temperatures expected through the week

- Little improvement in wildfire danger and drought conditions expected over the next 7 days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Early morning radar data and sfc obs indicate a cold front draped from northeast Oklahoma to southern Missouri and Illinois. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were persisting from northeast Texas to northwest Arkansas toward the St. Louis area. Well ahead of this activity, radar data was sampling an extended outflow boundary from near KLRF to KHKA. Temperatures across the state were generally in the 70s F with dewpoint values in the 60s F.

Throughout the day the cold front will make gradual progress southward across Arkansas but daytime highs are still expected to climb well into the 90s F. Temperatures will likely hold in the 80s F across northwest parts of the state today. Additional showers and storms may develop throughout the day across Arkansas, but short term hi-res guidance remains underwhelming regarding overall coverage and forecast POPs reflect that.

After today, much cooler temperatures are expected to filter into the state as sfc ridging builds in from the north behind the cold front. Coolest readings are expected across north-central portions of the state from Wed-Sat with highs in some spots struggling to climb out of the upper 70s F at times. Overnight lows will likely dip down into the 50s as well. Elsewhere, much more comfortable but near/above normal temperatures will be seen.

By the weekend, temperatures may begin to warm once again as the mid-level ridge attempts to build back north across the Southern/Central Plains. Dry conditions will be noted through the week with only slight chances for precip possible by the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of Arkansas with the greatest coverage over northwest and western Arkansas. A cold front currently over western and northwest Arkansas will slowly move southeast through the remainder of the state. As the cold front moves through the state, light south to southeast winds will veer to the north to northwest behind the front. By late tonight into early Tuesday, a variety of model suites brings in a deck of lower stratus south into Arkansas from the central Plains bringing CIGs down to MVFR from north to south. Ceilings are expected to gradually lift to VFR by mid to late Tuesday morning from across the state near the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 68 88 62 85 / 10 20 0 0 Camden AR 69 94 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 65 82 60 81 / 10 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 69 91 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 71 90 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 70 93 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 67 91 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 65 84 60 82 / 40 40 10 0 Newport AR 69 88 63 84 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 69 91 65 87 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 69 89 65 88 / 10 20 0 0 Searcy AR 69 89 63 86 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 92 66 88 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.