textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

-Dangerous heat ahead of a weak approaching cold front has prompted a Heat Advisory for part of central Arkansas, eastern Arkansas, and far eastern areas of the River Valley region

-Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across the state from north to south throughout the day on Thursday as a cold front moves across the state

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather will be present for the northwestern half of Arkansas for the potential for a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts between Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening

-The upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas by early next week promoting hot and dry conditions, but will become fixated over the Southeast by mid-next week with multiple upper levels shortwaves within the flow pattern promoting increased PoP chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, latest regional reflectivity depicts a scattered complex of thunderstorms extending from north-central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This complex of thunderstorms will continue to track east-southeastward overall ahead of an advancing cold front.

Current CAMS trajectory has a complex of shower and thunderstorm activity progged to begin impacting northern Arkansas by midday. In locations in which cloud cover and/or rain cooled air has reached a location, a noted decrease in high temperatures will be noted across portions of northern Arkansas; however in locations where storms are not anticipated until later in the day, high temperatures will once again peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values across portions of central and eastern Arkansas are expected to reach between 105 and 109 degrees warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be present between this afternoon and into the evening hours across the northwestern half of Arkansas. A moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE between 1,500 and 2,500 J/kg via daytime heating may yield a few instances of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Chances for additional rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as the cold front is expected to stall as a stationary front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

Rainfall totals over this two-day period look to favor much of northern Arkansas and parts of western Arkansas per the latest suite of 00Z guidance. Expect scattered areas to over-perform and under- preform across the state depending on where the strongest or most efficient rain-producing convection sets up.

Into the latter portion of the weekend and early next week, the upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas, but quickly by mid- week move eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS by an approaching series of shortwaves over Arkansas via northwesterly flow which will increase PoP chances and end triple digit temperatures across the state over this period bringing a bout of relief that will hopefully stick around beyond the forecast period of mid next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Expect flight category across all sites with the exception of only KLLQ to lower to as low as MVFR with periods of brief IFR due to lowered CIGS and VSBY. VCTS and TSRA will be moving into Arkansas by Thursday midday and begin impacting northern terminals, then impacting central sites by Thursday afternoon and will remain an issue throughout the remainder of the forecast period or through Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 98 70 90 68 / 60 60 60 10 Camden AR 97 72 94 70 / 0 10 60 10 Harrison AR 89 68 86 68 / 70 70 60 0 Hot Springs AR 98 72 92 71 / 30 30 70 10 Little Rock AR 98 74 92 73 / 30 30 60 10 Monticello AR 97 74 94 72 / 10 10 40 20 Mount Ida AR 97 69 91 68 / 30 40 70 10 Mountain Home AR 90 68 85 67 / 70 60 60 0 Newport AR 98 71 91 71 / 60 50 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 98 72 94 71 / 10 20 50 10 Russellville AR 97 71 90 70 / 60 60 70 10 Searcy AR 98 71 91 70 / 40 50 40 10 Stuttgart AR 100 74 95 73 / 10 20 50 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065.