textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly southern and central Arkansas.

- Widespread severe weather is not expected but some stronger storms could produce gusty winds.

- Temperatures will be seasonably warm through Wednesday before starting to climb once again.

- Heat advisories may be needed Thursday for the Delta counties and the Arkansas River Valley if current trends hold.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet conditions are noted over the FA this morning with generally clear skies and a little patchy ground fog in the usual areas. Expect the fog to become a little more widespread as daybreak approaches with T/TD spreads on the smaller side this morning. Temperatures remain mild to warm with most observation stations showing readings from the lower to mid 70s.

Pattern remains quite amplified this morning with ridging over the Rockies/central plains and subsequently, a positively tilted trough extending from the lower Great Lakes through the FA and into NE TX. Embedded in this trough is a vorticity maximum currently sitting along the AR/MO border. Guidance is consistent in moving this feature slowly to the south and east through the day and into Tuesday.

This feature will help to fire off diurnally driven convection primarily over central/southern Arkansas. CAMS guidance is showing generally weak shear but instability climbs to or exceeds 2500 J/KG with gusty winds the primary concern from any stronger storms.

Convection looks to get going near the vort max by mid afternoon and spreading to the southeast as the feature drifts that way. Activity looks to quickly diminish Monday evening with the loss of heating but returns Tuesday, but not as widespread as what will be seen today.

Trough finally does move off to the east on Wednesday w/ convection chances decreasing significantly. Flat upper ridge tries to move back in Thursday and beyond with temperatures increasing once again. Some guidance is showing ridging increasing more very late in the period and into the middle of next week.

Precip chances decrease more so as the the aforementioned ridging tries to return but diurnally driven convection can never really be completely ruled out. Temperatures will be seasonable today and Tuesday before climbing Wednesday and beyond. Heat indices are not expected to reach advisory criteria through Wednesday so headlines will not be necessary. However, staring Thursday, heat advisories may be needed once again over the delta and in parts of the Arkansas River Valley.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Some lingering convection will remain possible for the next few hrs...then coverage should decrease overnight. Some patchy fog may be seen overnight into Tue morning. Additional isolated convection may be seen on Tue afternoon...but coverage and location details too uncertain to mention within TAF at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 88 70 90 / 40 40 10 20 Camden AR 70 90 71 91 / 30 20 20 20 Harrison AR 68 85 68 88 / 20 20 10 10 Hot Springs AR 70 90 72 91 / 30 30 10 30 Little Rock AR 72 89 73 91 / 20 30 10 10 Monticello AR 72 89 72 91 / 50 40 20 20 Mount Ida AR 69 89 71 91 / 30 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 68 86 69 88 / 20 30 10 10 Newport AR 71 89 72 90 / 30 40 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 71 89 71 90 / 30 30 10 20 Russellville AR 71 90 73 93 / 10 20 10 10 Searcy AR 70 89 71 91 / 30 40 10 20 Stuttgart AR 72 89 73 91 / 30 30 10 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.