textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry and settled conditions will persist through the day Wednesday, with gusty southwest winds expected.

- A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing an attendant threat for isolated severe storms, mainly capable of damaging winds and some hail.

- Through the weekend and into next week, an unsettled pattern is forecast, with daily chances for rain and thunderstorms over much of the state.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Mosaic reflectivity early this AM showed isolated convective activity moving acrs SErn KS, w/ upper troughing over the Midwest and Great Lakes driving 40 to 50 knots of effective shear over much of the Ozark Plateau. Thru the day Wed, aforementioned troughing wl lift NEwrd, w/ local flow bcmg more zonal acrs the region. At the sfc, gusty SWrly flow wl ensue Wed aftn, w/ area winds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts in excess of 20 to 25 kts at times. Unfortunately, humidity levels wl be on the rise again, w/ dewpoint values climbing above 70F acrs the FA.

Covg and magnitude of PoPs wl incrs acrs the FA thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe as a trailing cdfrnt fm Midwest cyclonic flow moves acrs the Ozark Plateau. Given antecedent moisture, instability, and modest NWrly shear of 30 to 40 kts, an attendant severe threat is expected acrs Nrn AR on Thurs aftn as the frnt approaches, though confidence on higher impact severe weather remains low for now. The main hazards w/ any convective activity wl include damaging winds and hail.

By Fri, the aforementioned frnt is progged to continue slowly moving into Srn AR, and wl serve as the focus for PoPs thru the day. Thru the weekend, broad sfc NWrly flow wl persist acrs the Midwest region, w/ broad sfc high pressure lingering over the Mid-South vcty. There is a higher degree of uncertainty thru the weekend and into next week, as deterministic guidance suggests a few shortwave troughs maneuvering thru mean NWrly flow. This pattern suggests the potential for more frequent MCS activity, particularly along where any stationary boundaries may reside.

In addition to any attendant, but isolated severe threats thru the weekend, higher QPF values are expected thru the latter half of the PD, w/ NBM/WPC guidance suggesting a corridor of two to three inches of rainfall acrs portions of Nrn AR thru mid-week next week. Temps thru the PD wl stay near normal values, w/ intermittent bouts of cooler than normal temps behind passing cdfrnts, and limited concerns for hazardous heat condns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A couple of isolated cells are approaching the FA from the NW. Coverage of these storms is not widespread, and confidence they impact any TAF sites is low; added a Prob30 group to HRO for a cell roughly tracking into NW AR. Elsewhere VFR CIGs expected overnight. These will degrade to MVFR south of I-40 tomorrow morning as a low cloud deck pushes north. CIGs will improve back to VFR by mid-morning with the help of gusty SW winds that will linger until sunset Weds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 76 91 69 / 0 0 50 60 Camden AR 91 74 93 73 / 0 20 30 60 Harrison AR 88 72 83 65 / 0 30 50 70 Hot Springs AR 91 75 93 73 / 10 0 10 70 Little Rock AR 92 75 92 72 / 0 0 30 70 Monticello AR 90 75 91 74 / 10 20 30 70 Mount Ida AR 90 74 91 72 / 0 0 10 80 Mountain Home AR 89 72 84 65 / 0 20 40 70 Newport AR 92 76 91 71 / 0 0 60 60 Pine Bluff AR 91 75 91 73 / 10 10 30 70 Russellville AR 92 76 91 72 / 0 0 30 70 Searcy AR 93 75 92 70 / 0 0 40 70 Stuttgart AR 92 76 91 73 / 10 0 30 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.