textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

-Dry and pleasant weather conditions this weekend.

-Below normal temperatures today will precede near or slightly above normal temperatures going into early next week.

-Unsettled weather pattern anticipated for the middle portions of next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

THIS WEEKEND:

Lingering longwave troughing across the state will keep the warming temperatures at bay at least for today across the region, as skies clear due to building high pressure across the region. Some muted ridging aloft will then enter the Plains region going into Sunday, resulting in warming conditions back towards near to slightly above normal levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

A quickly developing low in the Great Lakes region due to a shortwave across the upper low across Ontario on Monday will mark the beginning of a more unsettled pattern starting Tuesday. Thus, Monday is anticipated to be one of the warmest days over the next week as highs reach into the 80s. The sweeping cold front remaining mostly north of the region looks likely into Tuesday before brushing the northern portions of the state with showers and storms.

Further west, a deepening Pacific trough west of the Rockies early next week will be worth monitoring over the next several days, as current guidance suggests this trough ejecting east of the Rockies during the middle portions of next week. With a surface low likely to develop, more robust dynamics may provide much better shower and thunderstorm chances as a frontal passage occurs in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. Depending on the moisture return and timing of everything coming together could present some severe weather potential, so will have to keep an on how guidance hones in on the pattern evolution during this period.

LATE NEXT WEEK:

Much quieter weather looks favored late next week as high pressure builds and a warming and drying trend occurs. High temperatures easily back into the 70s during this period and at least 50th percentile highs by next weekend could be back into the 80s across the state depending on how strong the upper level ridging builds across central CONUS.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The terminal of KADF will experience VSBY degraded to as low as MVFR flight category until later Saturday morning, then expect all terminals to maintain VFR flight category for the remainder of the forecast period from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Surface winds will gust in excess of 20 knots at the sites of KHRO, KHOT, KLIT, and KPBF on Saturday late morning through Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 69 43 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 45 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 66 42 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 71 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 71 46 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 73 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 71 44 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 66 40 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 70 45 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 46 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 71 44 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 43 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.