textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through the early part of next week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through Friday.

-Some appreciable rainfall is possible this weekend across the state, but confidence in amounts remains low.

-An active weather pattern will develop over much of the CONUS next week bringing additional rain chances to the state.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility around the middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Satellite early this morning shows a few high level clouds over southern Arkansas. Southwesterly flow aloft will allow for additional mid and high level cloudiness to stream into western and southwest Arkansas around sunrise this morning. Temperatures early this morning are in the 50s around the state. Low temperatures later this morning will bottom out in the lower 50s statewide around sunrise. Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures with dry conditions are expected with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

A ridge of high pressure centered near the Appalachian mountain region will continue to drive dry and warm conditions across the state on Friday. Expect high temperatures to be around 5 degrees cooler on Friday across the state. By Friday night into Saturday morning, both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show moisture being pulled north out of the Gulf into the state. The first of a couple of weak shortwaves embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across the state late Friday into early Saturday bringing scattered showers as moves over parts of western and northwestern Arkansas. A second shortwave on the heels of the first will push over the northern half of the state bringing additional shower and isolated thunderstorms to the state. With regards to rainfall totals this weekend, both deterministic models shows rainfall totals between a quarter and half inch with locally higher totals possible.

A brief lull with dry weather is expected on Sunday night across Arkansas as short wave ridging moves across the state. The focus turns to the deep synoptic trough and cut off low that will move through parts of the western and central US Monday into Tuesday as the trough approaches the state. As we head into Tuesday afternoon, the deep trough and cut off low will move into the southern Plains dragging a cold front north and west of the state. There will be ample synoptic lift to bring shower and thunderstorm chances mainly to the western half of Arkansas as early as Monday afternoon and evening across the western half of the state.

Model solutions are nearly identical with regards to the trough Tuesday into Wednesday, but vary slightly. The ECMWF is more progressive with the trough during the same period. This will bring additional rain and thunderstorms of which a few could be strong to severe. The track of the synoptic trough/cut off low lifting northeast from the southern plains in the central plains northwest of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Latest LREF 90th percentile show surface CAPE values just over 600 J/kg with 0-6km shear values just over 50 kts. The orientation of the shear vectors within the LREF 90th percentile ensemble sounding supports a damaging wind threat along some potential for large hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A look at the mean LREF ensemble sounding shows surface CAPE values just over 200 J/kg with 0-6km shear values of around 50 kts with the orientation of the shear vectors within the hodograph supporting a damaging wind threat, with some potential for large hail and isolated tornado or two possible.

Temperatures today through early part of next week will be roughly around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Behind the front, drier and colder air filter into the state bringing temperatures at or closer to normal for early November.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Mid and high level cloudiness will increase thoughout the day across the state. Light south to southeast winds through the day, then light and variable winds after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 84 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 85 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 30 Harrison AR 82 56 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 84 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 84 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 20 Monticello AR 83 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 84 53 77 54 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 82 56 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 83 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 84 52 79 57 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 84 56 77 57 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 84 52 80 57 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 84 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.