textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

-Another very hot day is expected across the Natural State this Wednesday...with record heat possible. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in place through this evening

-Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible...especially over northern into northeast Arkansas this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat...but an isolated weak tornado and marginally severe hail will also be possible

-Less intense heat will be seen Thursday into the early next week as a front drops south through the state Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Increasing SWRLY SFC winds will allow for ample mixing this Wed afternoon for moisture levels to drop...and temps to warm considerably over 100 for most locations. Many areas may see near record conditions...and a few sites may even break record highs this Wed afternoon. Heat index values will likely exceed 105 for most areas...and even exceed 110 for areas along the AR River Valley into ERN AR. Have heat headlines again for late this morning into the early evening hrs for all of the CWA.

Beyond the very hot conditions...an increased wildfire threat will exist as well given the very hot and dry conditions. Min RH values will dip below 30 percent for several areas...and combined with the lack of rainfall and hot temps...the threat for wildfires will increase today.

Some chances for rainfall are forecast again today. A complex of SHRA/TSRA ongoing across central MO early this morning will continue dropping ESE through around sunrise. While the bulk of this convection will remain north of AR...an outflow looks to drop south into the state around sunrise. This may allow for some scattered convection this morning over NRN sections. While there should be a break late morning into the early afternoon hrs...additional convection may develop along this outflow this afternoon over portions of central AR wherever this outflow ends up. The threat for strong/SVR Wx with this area of the state will be generally low...but an isolated strong/SVR TSRA could be seen...with damaging winds the primary threat expected. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen.

Better potential for a bit more organized strong/SVR convection is expected across NRN/NERN sections this afternoon/evening as a new front drops south towards the state ahead of an upper shortwave. Plenty of instability will exist this afternoon...and combined with enough SHR...will allow for an increased potential for SVR convection. Damaging winds will again be the primary threat expected with the strongest storms...but an isolated weak tornado and marginally SVR hail could also be seen. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with any convective activity today/this evening.

The aforementioned upper shortwave will drop SE over the region on Thu...with the front dropping south through the state by Thu evening. Additional chances for scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue along/behind this front through Thu night. This front will also bring some relief from the persistent very hot conditions...with less of the area seeing temps near or over 100. Even so...will likely see some areas reach that triple digit mark through the weekend...and moisture levels will likely not decrease too much behind the front. As a result...some heat index values may still be over 100...and even a few spots over 105 through the weekend. Beyond the weekend and into the middle of next week...a stronger upper shortwave looks to dive south across the Plains...and could bring even more significant relief from the persistent heat by late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period across TAF sites. A disturbance will move through north and northeast parts of state through the evening into early Thursday morning with any impacts mainly seen across northern and central terminals. A brief period of MVFR/IFR is possible with SHRA/TSRA. Winds will remain light through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 97 73 98 / 40 30 20 0 Camden AR 78 102 74 101 / 0 10 20 0 Harrison AR 71 93 69 94 / 60 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 78 101 74 101 / 10 20 20 10 Little Rock AR 81 102 76 100 / 20 20 20 0 Monticello AR 80 101 76 100 / 0 10 30 10 Mount Ida AR 77 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 10 Mountain Home AR 71 93 70 94 / 70 10 10 0 Newport AR 75 96 72 96 / 30 20 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 78 100 74 98 / 0 10 40 10 Russellville AR 76 100 73 100 / 20 20 20 10 Searcy AR 76 99 72 98 / 20 20 30 0 Stuttgart AR 79 101 75 99 / 10 20 40 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017- 024-052-053-062-063-066>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212- 213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ031>034-039- 042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-138-230-238.