textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Patchy dense fog will persist over the southeast half of the state to near pre-dawn hours, with conditions improving near and beyond sunrise.

- High-confidence of high-impact winter storm conditions are expected to take hold of the region beginning Friday and persist through the weekend.

- All winter precip types are expected, with significant snowfall possible over the northern portion of the state, snow-sleet accumulations across central and southern Arkansas, and impactful ice accumulations over southern Arkansas.

- Hazardous cold conditions will accompany winter weather through this weekend and into early next week, with sub-zero minimum wind chill values possible Saturday through Monday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Through Today

Latest night-fog satellite imgry showed the SErn half of the state under foggy condns, w/ sfc obs indicating <1 mile visibilities. Expect this trend to continue thru near the pre-dawn hours, w/ area visibilities improving by sunrise as sfc winds begin to increase. For Thurs, a dry and cool day is on deck for the FA as a region of sfc high pressure moves Ewrd over the Ozark Plateau, w/ NErly winds ensuing.

Winter Weather Forecast Confidence Points

There is reasonably high confidence of high impact winter wx over most of AR from Fri night thru Sun mrng, including heavy mixed winter p-types over Cntrl to Srn AR.

A 24 hour recap of forecast trends includes:

- A warming trend in the H850-H700 layer contributing to significant changes in forecast winter precip amounts

- The warming trend aloft over Cntrl AR has led to a Nwrd shift of the primary snowfall footprint further over Nrn AR and the Ozark Plateau

- Reduced snowfall amounts and greater sleet potential over Cntrl AR

- Liquid-QPF amounts continue to increase w/ this system, equating to greater possible sleet and freezing rain/ice totals

Winter Weather Forecast Uncertainties

Based on the 24 hour forecast trends list, the uncertainties list is just about the same, and the major shifts in the guidance at 48-60 hours are not necessarily unheard of. That being said, a clear divergence in GFS/ECMWF and ensemble counterparts has been noted over the past several runs, w/ ECMWF solns suggesting and favoring a more severe freezing rain/ice scenario, while GFS solns are settling into more mixed precip and heavy sleet for the Cntrl to Srn portions of the state. However, these differences can mostly be attributed to model schemes and known limitations w/ hydrometeor classifications.

As of now, the current official fcst favors a middle ground scenario, where a warm layer aloft wl extend into at least Cntrl AR, to perhaps just north of the I-40 corridor. Warm layer max temps per the GFS have been ranging from +1-2C, resulting in a shallower melting layer, while ECMWF guidance has been advertising +2-4C max melting layer temps, resulting in a deeper melting layer. As we move into short-term model guidance, reaching a consensus on the magnitude of this warm layer wl greatly aid with refining the axes of winter p-types over the FA, and overall forecast amounts.

Freezing Rain

Given the middle-ground approach in the latest forecast, impactful ice accumulations are expected acrs far Srn AR, w/ at least a quarter inch of ice possible to just south of the I-40 corridor. Higher confidence exists acrs far Srn AR and the ARKLAMISS region for significant ice accumulations up to a half inch to three quarters of an inch or greater. Damage to infrastructure and vegetation, and power outages are likely w/ just forecast verifying ice accruals, and more significant impacts arising under forecast exceeding amounts.

Probabilistic Freezing Rain Thresholds:

High confidence for at least a quarter to half inch of ice accumulation over the Srn third of the state (60-70%)

Medium confidence for at least three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation over the ARKLAMISS border region (40-50%)

Medium confidence for one inch of ice accumulation over the ARKLAMISS border region (30-40%)

Snowfall

Aforementioned trends and uncertainties for snowfall have resulted in a much different snowfall forecast this morning. Due to the increasing possibility for more mixed precip across Cntrl AR, the sharp gradient in snow amounts has shifted Nwrd, w/ lesser overall snow totals possible in the metro area and Swrd. Intermittent periods of primarily snow wl be possible thru the event, w/ sleet expected otherwise.

For those in Nrn AR, snowfall remains the status quo, w/ only some intermittent mixed precip expected. Official forecast totals have not differed too much, but possible higher-end totals are trending upwards w/ the Nwrd shift in higher liquid-QPF, and potential for banding and higher snowfall rates.

That being said, the latest official forecast favors a swath of 4-8 inches of snow and sleet across the Nrn two-thirds of AR, where greater totals attributed to mainly snow are expected north of I-40. Higher-end and exceedance snowfall of 8-10 inches or more will be possible as well, and mainly reflected by the location of where banding develops.

The central third of AR including the I-40 corridor and southward to the lateral extent of the Ouachitas could see between 3-5 inches of snow and sleet in total, w/ most of this occurring as sleet. Across far Srn AR, mainly sleet is expected, w/ sleet totals near 1-2 inches possible.

Probabilistic Snowfall Thresholds:

High confidence for at least 4 inches over the Nrn two-thirds of the state (60-70%)

Medium confidence for at least 6 inches over the Nrn half of the state (40-60%)

Low to medium confidence for 8 inches or more over Nrn AR (30-40%)

Low confidence for 10 inches or more over Nrn AR (<20%) w/ no discernible patterns evident in probabilistic data

Hazardous Cold

Lastly, in addition to impactful winter wx, hazardous cold temperatures and wind chills wl accompany this event, w/ the coldest conditions expected Saturday thru Monday mornings. Low temperatures in the single digits to low teens wl be common across the state w/ wind chills reaching negative values thru this timeframe as well. Another factor to be considered that is not well represented in the current official forecast is the potential for sub-zero air temperatures where the greatest snowpack exists in the wake of winter precip. More details on hazardous cold wl be available as the winter wx forecast is dialed in, but hazardous and impactful conditions wl not cease after winter precip.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Periodic dense fog over the next few hours will be the main aviation impact through the forecast period. Due to winds increasing out of the northeast throughout the morning, there should be a pretty quick improvement, with VFR conditions prevailing through the rest of the period for most terminals. MVFR ceilings favoring the southeastern terminals is of high enough probability to include late in the period this evening and into tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 48 27 36 12 / 0 0 10 80 Camden AR 51 35 42 17 / 0 10 30 90 Harrison AR 47 24 31 9 / 0 0 10 90 Hot Springs AR 50 33 40 15 / 0 10 20 90 Little Rock AR 48 31 38 15 / 0 10 20 90 Monticello AR 53 37 44 22 / 10 10 20 70 Mount Ida AR 51 33 41 15 / 0 10 30 90 Mountain Home AR 48 24 31 10 / 0 0 0 90 Newport AR 46 28 33 12 / 0 0 10 80 Pine Bluff AR 50 33 40 16 / 0 10 20 80 Russellville AR 51 32 40 15 / 0 0 10 90 Searcy AR 48 27 38 12 / 0 0 10 80 Stuttgart AR 48 32 38 15 / 0 10 10 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ007-008- 016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.