textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warming trend expected to commence today

- Rain chances return mid/late week with pattern change

- Monitoring Saturday/Sat evening for severe weather potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Skies were mostly clear across the state early this Sunday morning with winds nearly calm or calm. Predawn temps had fallen into the upper 30s to mid 40s through efficient radiational cooling. By daylight, temps should range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Today, winds will switch around to the S/SW between 10 and 15 mph. The combination of mostly sunny conditions coupled with return flow will aid high temps climbing into the mid/upper 70s.

Aloft, the pattern will transition to zonal for a couple of days, reinforcing above average temps across region. Highs are expected to climb well into the 80s through mid-week with little to no appreciable rain chances across the Little Rock CWA.

Quasi-zonal pattern should become more active as a low amplitude short wave trough move out of the Pac NW into the Cntrl Plains. On Wednesday, the short wave will eject into the Cntrl Plains/Mid MS Valley. A surface low traversing the Great Lakes region will have a trailing cold front extending back to the SW into TX. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the frontal boundary assisted by additional forcing for ascent from aforementioned trough. Precipitation onset time ranges from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.

A lack of upper level jet dynamics should limit storm organization and potential for severe weather. The front is expected to stall across the region serving as a focus for additional convection in the days to follow. Precipitation chances remain high Wednesday night through Thursday night. There might be a bit of a lull on Friday but rain chances return again on Saturday/Saturday night. The system on Saturday will be monitored closely as this round of precipitation could bring a potential for severe weather. Better moisture will be available, timing of day better aligned with available instability, and forcing for ascent stronger through a more potent trough pivoting across the Nrn Plains.

The probabilities for beneficial rainfall are increasing mid/late week. Probabilistic guidance suggest 30-70% of greater than 2" rainfall through Saturday night across a large part of AR and 20-50% of greater than 3" rainfall across a smaller footprint of AR. While these probabilities seem low at the moment, remember we are still four-seven days out from the bulk of precipitation.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR condns were noted acrs the FA near 06Z Sun night. Expect a plume of MVFR CIGs to move into SErn AR later Sun night, w/ asctd mid-lvl cloud covg extending into Cntrl AR. Some LLWS wl be possible acrs Nrn terminals asctd w/ an H850 LLJ. The aforementioned lower stratus should begin to dissipate later into Mon aftn as Srn winds induce deeper mixing, w/ VFR condns resuming at SErn terminals, and mainly BKN higher cloud covg noted. Gusty Srly winds of 10 to 15 kts, and gusts near 20 kts wl prevail thru Mon aftn.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 30 Camden AR 84 59 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 Harrison AR 84 63 83 62 / 0 0 10 50 Hot Springs AR 83 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 83 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 82 63 85 65 / 10 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 84 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 40 Newport AR 81 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 82 62 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 30 Searcy AR 82 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 81 64 84 65 / 10 0 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.