textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Above normal to near record temperatures will continue through the next few afternoons.

- Wednesday afternoon heat index values will near or possibly 100 degrees.

- Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state Wednesday afternoon.

- Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Recent objective analysis depicted a 30 to 40 kt SWrly H850 LLJ positioned acrs the Ozark Plateau. Regional mosaic radar imgry also revealed incrsg covg of elevated precip asctd w/ wrm advection over NErn OK and SWrn MO, ahead of an advancing convective complex fm SErn KS, w/ 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggesting the leading edge of this complex wl be moving acrs NWrn to Nrn AR near 12Z Wed mrng. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south precip activity will reach thru Wed aftn, and this wl mainly depend on the resultant outflow strength.

Latest hi-res QPF guidance suggests a swath of one to two inches across far NWrn AR, w/ isolated amounts near one inch extending Ewrd over the Boston Mountains into Cntrl AR. Elsewhere, minimal rainfall, under one quarter inch, is expected, w/ a sharp cutoff to no accumulations towards SErn AR. Where rainfall and asctd thicker cloud cover does not occur, mainly the Srn half of the state, above normal to near record temperatures will persist again on Wed, while relatively cooler temps in the upper 80s wl be seen acrs NWrn to Nrn AR.

Thurs thru Fri, a progressive shortwave trof is progged to quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole quickly amplifying over the CONUS, e.g., strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley w/ incrsg divergence aloft, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing remains consistent w/ the cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to near critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Some fog may be possible overnight...especially across the NRN terminals where rain fell. Further south...less rain fell...and fog will be more isolated. Additional convection will be possible late tonight into Thu...mainly across the far NRN sections. Most other locations should remain dry. Winds will begins switching back to the west/NW late in the period as a front moves into the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 69 91 56 66 / 20 10 0 0 Camden AR 64 93 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 68 87 48 60 / 50 10 60 0 Hot Springs AR 68 91 58 69 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 92 62 70 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 68 92 64 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 90 51 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 68 88 51 61 / 50 20 40 0 Newport AR 70 92 60 68 / 30 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 93 61 73 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 92 55 67 / 10 10 10 0 Searcy AR 68 92 59 69 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 70 94 63 72 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.