textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Above normal to near record temperatures will continue through the next few afternoons.

- Wednesday afternoon heat index values will near or possibly 100 degrees.

- Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state Wednesday afternoon.

- Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Recent objective analysis depicted a 30 to 40 kt SWrly H850 LLJ positioned acrs the Ozark Plateau. Regional mosaic radar imgry also revealed incrsg covg of elevated precip asctd w/ wrm advection over NErn OK and SWrn MO, ahead of an advancing convective complex fm SErn KS, w/ 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggesting the leading edge of this complex wl be moving acrs NWrn to Nrn AR near 12Z Wed mrng. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south precip activity will reach thru Wed aftn, and this wl mainly depend on the resultant outflow strength.

Latest hi-res QPF guidance suggests a swath of one to two inches across far NWrn AR, w/ isolated amounts near one inch extending Ewrd over the Boston Mountains into Cntrl AR. Elsewhere, minimal rainfall, under one quarter inch, is expected, w/ a sharp cutoff to no accumulations towards SErn AR. Where rainfall and asctd thicker cloud cover does not occur, mainly the Srn half of the state, above normal to near record temperatures will persist again on Wed, while relatively cooler temps in the upper 80s wl be seen acrs NWrn to Nrn AR.

Thurs thru Fri, a progressive shortwave trof is progged to quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole quickly amplifying over the CONUS, e.g., strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley w/ incrsg divergence aloft, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing remains consistent w/ the cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to near critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted a broken cluster of precip w/ asctd MVFR CIGs moving into NWrn AR, which has recently produced 25 kt wind gusts at NWrn terminals. Expect this activity to dissipate thru the later mrng hours w/ CIGs improving to VFR lvls, and additional isolated SHRA/TS possible Wed aftn to evng. Elsewhere, sfc obs and nighttime sat imgry depicted MVFR CIGs building acrs much of Cntrl to Srn AR. Intermittent MVFR condns wl prevail thru the next few hours at area terminals, w/ CIGs improving to VFR lvls by 14/18Z. Wrly to SWrly winds wl prevail, w/ isolated VRB thunderstorm driven winds possible around Nrn terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 89 69 90 57 / 80 30 10 10 Camden AR 92 64 92 61 / 20 10 0 0 Harrison AR 85 68 87 52 / 90 40 20 50 Hot Springs AR 91 67 91 60 / 50 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 91 69 91 63 / 50 10 0 0 Monticello AR 92 67 91 64 / 10 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 91 65 90 55 / 60 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 85 68 88 54 / 80 50 30 40 Newport AR 90 69 91 61 / 70 40 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 92 66 92 61 / 20 10 0 0 Russellville AR 91 69 91 58 / 70 20 0 10 Searcy AR 90 67 91 59 / 70 20 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 68 93 63 / 40 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.