textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

-Near record temps in eastern half of the state Friday.

-Rain to push from NW to SE corners of the state throughout the day Saturday.

-Critical Min RHs statewide Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After several days of a more active pattern Friday will be a small respite from rain and t'storms before the trough that has been driving these last several days of activity ejects to the east. Before that a fast moving ridge will build over the region Friday. This will allow for temps to soar to near record levels, especially in E and NE AR.

To push out the ridge a H500 shortwave based over the Baja Peninsula and the parent trough coming off the Rockies will eject in phase across Central CONUS, and drag a cooler and very dry airmass out of the High Plains across the region. Along the leading edge of the cold front will be our next chance for shower and t'storm activity. As a broken record once again: storms will initially develop to our north and west, begin to fall apart over the FA, and then ramp back up to the east. FROPA timing will be the culprit of the weakening storms of this system. A stout 850-700mb inversion will prevent any prefrontal convective initiation across our area through Friday evening. As the cldfrnt approaches any activity along the front will be shredded by the combined mid level and diurnal inversions in NW AR. Precip will become widely scattered by the time it reaches Central AR. The best chance for rain with this system will be mid afternoon Sat as a weak mid-level secondary front forms across the center of the FA. Any showers that form along this front will be elevated and pose no risk of severe.

Sat evening is the best of a limited chance for anything to develop quickly along the front and become strong to severe the AR/LA/MS corner. A quick stream of deeper moisture will collide with the front late in the afternoon and pulse t'storms back up along the front. Guidance has be rather consistent on the happening just to the south and east of our FA, but if the front is slower moving than anticipated, the bottom rows of counties in our area could see a stronger storm around sunset Sat.

Sunday temps will hold to near normal behind the front. But the airmass trailing the front will be extremely dry. Min RHs are expected to be at or below critical values both Sunday and Monday afternoons. There will likely be several areas that will not receive any meaningful rainfall from the preceding system. Winds and gusts have slightly trended up over the last few model runs but remain below and threshold that would spark large scale fire concerns. Irregardless these low Min RHs and extreme drought any areas avoiding meaningful rainfall this week would have localized elevated fire risk.

By Tuesday a ridge will spread across the center of the country and return southerly flow to the region. This will bring some moisture and warmer temps back into the region. Temps will return to above normal by Weds and continue to climb into next weekend.

Mid range ensembles are picking up on a very subtle shortwave forming along the eastern edge of the ridge in the mid to late week. Depending on moisture return to the region Tues into Weds some weak shower activity could form across the state. As of now confidence in this producing anything is low, but it is worth watching for as any rainfall would be appreciated at this point.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Gusty south to southwest winds will continue in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. Winds are expected to turn to the NW after the boundary passes through which will occur primarily during the overnight hours. The front will be accompanied by some precipitation with the best chances of convection for the northern terminals. VFR conditions will likely prevail with MVFR to brief IFR conditions along and behind the boundary fore several hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 56 67 43 72 / 70 60 10 0 Camden AR 64 73 42 73 / 20 90 50 0 Harrison AR 49 62 39 70 / 90 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 57 69 43 73 / 40 60 20 0 Little Rock AR 60 70 44 72 / 40 70 20 0 Monticello AR 66 76 46 72 / 10 80 60 0 Mount Ida AR 56 67 41 73 / 60 50 10 0 Mountain Home AR 50 63 39 71 / 80 30 0 0 Newport AR 58 70 43 72 / 50 70 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 63 73 44 72 / 20 80 40 0 Russellville AR 56 67 41 73 / 70 40 10 0 Searcy AR 58 70 41 72 / 50 70 10 0 Stuttgart AR 63 73 44 71 / 30 80 30 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.