textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

-A Heat Advisory continues through Saturday evening across eastern Arkansas, a large part of central Arkansas, the Arkansas River Valley, and most of west-central Arkansas.

-A few very isolated rain/storm chances will exist as a series of weak boundaries approach the state over the weekend, but the upper level ridge and subsidence will keep POP chances very low

-Hot and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the forecast period across the CWA and state of Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The forecast is beginning to sound similar to a skipping song on a CD (repeating from the previous forecast). Hot and dry conditions will persist across Arkansas overall. A very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm will exist across southern Arkansas each afternoon through the weekend, but PoPs will be low and rainfall totals will likely not equate to enough to settle the dust.

The trend of high temperatures across Arkansas ranging from the mid 90s into values around and exceeding 100 degrees will continue through the forecast period or through the middle of next week. Heat Advisory issuance will likely be extended into the latter part of the Labor Day Weekend and into the upcoming weekend as portions of the state continue to experience heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees. Into the holiday weekend, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed across portions of eastern and central Arkansas as latest guidance does indicate heat index values exceeding 110 degrees.

The upper lvl ridge is progged to broaden over the weekend over the region, but by the beginning of the upcoming workweek, the center of the upper lvl ridge fixates directly over Arkansas. A series of weak frontal boundaries will attempt to move into the state, but given the strength of the upper lvl ridge and associated subsidence, appreciable rainfall is not expected.

In analysis of the latest 00Z suite of model ensembles, unfortunately it appears a good bet that the upper lvl ridge remains positioned over Arkansas for the next roughly ten days (possibly longer). As expected, over this ten day stretch, hot and dry conditions will persist overall with limited to no chances for rainfall. Wildfire danger will continue to increase as drought conditions worsen along with soils and vegetation that continues to dry.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Expect VFR flight category to persist across all TAF sites within the forecast period of early Thursday morning through early Friday morning. The site of KLLQ may experience some VCTS during Thursday evening for a few hours. However, no degradation of flight category is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 100 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 20 0 Harrison AR 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 96 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 98 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230- 237-238.