textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Upper level high pressure centered to the east of the state this morning will slowly move to the ENE over the next few days.

- Heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through Thursday with heat index values forecast to be over 110 in the advisory area and up to 115 in the warning area. - An increase in cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the latter part of next week will provide limited relief.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A few isolated showers are all that remain from showers and thunderstorms that were seen across parts of southeast, south, and central Arkansas Tuesday night. High level cloudiness remains over parts the aforementioned areas with the remainder of the state mainly clear with light and variable winds early this morning.

Upper level high pressure over the Ohio Valley will meander through the day on Friday. Similar to Wednesday, an area of higher PWAT values around 2.20 inches will move into parts of central, eastern, and southeast Arkansas this afternoon. Surface CAPE values across most of the state will be in the 3500-4500 J/kg with steep low and mid level but absence the presence of mid level dry air. Nonetheless, a few locally strong storms would be possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. Hi-res CAMs are not nearly as robust with regards to coverage with limited isolated coverage. Those areas lucky enough to see a strong storm could also see some a brief period of locally heavy rainfall.

Another day of hazardous heat is expected across the state with a Extreme Heat Warning in effect across parts of central, eastern, and northeast Arkansas with a Heat Advisory covering the Arkansas River valley along with parts of southeast, northern, and central Arkansas. Heat Index values within the Extreme Heat Warning up to 115 degrees and up to 110 degrees within the Heat Advisory area. An additional round of isolated diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms are again possible on Friday.

As we head into Saturday, upper level high pressure over the southeast will be flatted as a shortwave rounds the base of the trough along the US west coast and traverses across the central part of the country this weekend. This will set up a typical summertime regime that will persist through the later part of next week bringing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorm.

Temperatures through the period will be in the lower to mid 90s. A look at the CPC 6-10 day outlook for July 10th through 11th favors warmer conditions and wetter conditions across the state.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Some isolated convection will persist through early this Thu evening...then coverage should dissipate later this evening and overnight. Dominant VFR conditions should be seen overnight into Fri. While some additional isolated afternoon convection will again be possible on Fri...will keep out of TAFs for now due to limited coverage/location confidence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 0 20 Camden AR 74 94 74 94 / 0 10 0 30 Harrison AR 73 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 30 Hot Springs AR 75 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 30 Little Rock AR 77 95 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 Monticello AR 76 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 20 Mount Ida AR 74 91 75 91 / 10 10 10 40 Mountain Home AR 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 Newport AR 77 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 20 Russellville AR 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 30 Searcy AR 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ006-014-015-039- 043>045-056-057-064-065-069-121>123-130-138-230-238.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008- 016-017-024-025-031>034-046-047.

Extreme Heat Watch through Friday evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-031>034-046-047.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007- 008-016-017-024-025-031>034-046-047-055.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ223.