textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 118 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

-Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Friday.

-A new storm system will provide widespread rain and thunderstorms to the state this weekend.

-Drying out on Sunday with warming temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dry conditions will persist across the state today and most of Friday. Temps will vary from northeast to southwest with the coolest readings across NE Arkansas due to sfc ridging in position to the east of the state beneath NW flow aloft. Warmer temperatures are expected across the W/SW where mid-level ridging and srly flow at the sfc will be in place.

Things will change this weekend as an H500 shortwave trough will move from the SW US on Friday to the Lower MS River Valley on Sunday. A corresponding sfc low will follow a similar path. As the trough approaches, the flow will turn out of the SW and moisture will increase across the state. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across Arkansas from Friday night through Sunday morning. With PW values in the 1-1.5 inch range and enhanced mid- level flow, this will help contribute to a widespread rainfall event. General amounts will be in the 1.5-2.5 inch with some upper end probs showing amounts up to 4 inches possible.

The severe threat remains low for much of Arkansas, with some strong to severe storms possible across northeast/east TX Saturday afternoon/evening perhaps as far north as SW AR. This activity will likely progress east across northern LA through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. Limited northward extent of instability, meager mid-level lapse rates and a more southerly track of the sfc low will help limit the severe threat across Arkansas.

This system will exit to the east on Sunday with H500 zonal to SW flow expected through early next week. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected through mid-week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Rain chances will remain low...but should start increasing just beyond this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 38 66 47 63 / 0 0 60 90 Camden AR 43 73 54 73 / 0 10 20 80 Harrison AR 39 68 49 61 / 0 10 80 100 Hot Springs AR 42 70 52 68 / 0 10 50 90 Little Rock AR 41 68 50 69 / 0 10 50 90 Monticello AR 45 72 55 73 / 0 0 20 60 Mount Ida AR 41 70 52 68 / 0 20 60 100 Mountain Home AR 37 66 46 59 / 0 0 80 100 Newport AR 38 64 47 63 / 10 0 50 90 Pine Bluff AR 41 69 51 72 / 0 0 30 80 Russellville AR 41 70 51 65 / 0 10 70 100 Searcy AR 37 67 46 66 / 0 0 60 90 Stuttgart AR 41 67 50 70 / 0 0 40 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.