textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Isolated showers/storms possible Fri through the weekend

- Breezy conds are expected to return into the weekend

- Temps should top out above average through the weekend

- Rain chances ramp up markedly Monday through Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Skies were mostly clear across AR on this Thursday morning. Temps ranged from the upper 40s to mid 60s. Dew pt temps were falling in wake of Wednesday cold front with a notable decrease from the mid 40s N to the lower 60s S. Today, a few showers/rumbles of thunder are possible over Nrn AR through late morning, however PoPs will stay in the slight category. Elsewhere, clouds may be seen from time to time.

Synoptically, NW flow aloft will reside over the region between an amplified ridge over the Cntrl Plains and subtle trough along the E Coast. Compact upper ridging will advance Ewrd across the MS Valley today. This pattern will give way to quasi-zonal flow over the weekend.

Passing shortwave energy may trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday morning into the afternoon time frame. Best coverage would be over NW half to Nrn half of the state. Increasing PGF should encourage breezy conds Saturday through Tuesday, especially during the afternoon. Weak upper level energy is expected to pass over the region through the weekend bringing slight chance PoPs correlated with peak daytime heating. Overall, PoPs are anticipated to be sparse with no appreciable QPF expected.

Better PoP chances return across the region Monday through Wednesday. A shift from quasi-zonal pattern to more meridional component will result from a deepening upper trough over the Four Corners region. Stronger upper level disturbances are anticipated to eject out over the region on Monday and Tuesday providing large scale forcing for ascent to overspread the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night the with approach of a cold front. Aloft, the trough out W should eject into the Cntrl and Nrn Plains. Over the last 24 hours, long range guidance has come into better agreement that the front could stall over the Cntrl Plains (short of reaching AR). This has been a common theme with systems remaining a bit to our W with bulk of precip also passing to our W. Despite shifts in model data, QPF amounts appear greatest between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temps through the period should mostly be in the upper 70s to 80s for highs with lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees. The warmest temps are expected to occur Friday through Monday where highs may top near 90 degrees or into the lower 90s in places with lows only falling in the lower 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Expect VFR conditions to be present across all terminals for the duration of the forecast period from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The TAF site of KHRO may experience surface wind gusts in excess of 20 knots from the beginning of the period through Thursday evening. Low level wind shear will be present at the sites of KHRO, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT from late Thursday evening through early Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 87 72 85 / 0 0 10 0 Camden AR 63 91 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 87 70 86 / 0 10 20 30 Hot Springs AR 62 89 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 61 89 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 62 90 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 87 71 85 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 59 87 68 85 / 0 10 20 20 Newport AR 59 89 71 87 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 91 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 61 88 70 86 / 0 0 10 0 Searcy AR 57 88 69 86 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 62 90 72 87 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.