textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures are expected to continue through the remainder of the work week and into this weekend.

-No significant rainfall is expected through the end of the work week with drought conditions persisting.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Recent WV sat imgry depicted perturbed upper level flow over the CONUS, w/ an upper low approaching Srn CA and the Baja region, and another upper low maneuvering over the NErn US. Intermediate ridging resided over the Cntrl US, w/ broad sfc high pressure extending SEwrd fm the Great Lakes thru the OH River Valley and Mid-South.

Thru much of the current fcst PD, there is considerable agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble global guidance for upper level ridging to persist across the central CONUS. This wl drive a persistence-style fcst, w/ daily high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s...typically above-normal for most locations...and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, w/ no appreciable rainfall expected.

Concerning drought and fire danger, a lack of forecast rainfall, and any recent substantial rainfall wl foster drying ground fuels (noted by fcst ERC values approaching >90th percentile over portions of Srn AR), and persisting to deteriorating drought conditions for much of the state. Additionally, very low afternoon RH values of 25 percent or less may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through at least this weekend.

For the long term, the aforementioned west coast trof looks to slowly translate Ewrd over the Four Corners region into early next week, weakening as it does so. Locally, the center of the upper level high wl also shift Ewrd, positioning SWrly flow acrs the Srn Great Plains, and possibly driving some poleward moisture transport by mid- week next week, but confidence remains low, w/ most ensemble guidance pointing towards zonal H500 near the end of the fcst PD and beyond.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Expect the VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Winds should remain less than 10 kts sustained.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 46 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 44 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 48 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 47 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 49 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 49 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 43 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 45 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 47 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 46 82 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 47 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 48 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 48 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.