textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for western into central sections today

-More limited chances for rainfall Friday

-Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast for this weekend into early next week

-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

SRLY SFC flow will return this Thu as a warm front lifts north...and weak upper wave lifts north over WRN AR into this afternoon. Some isolated/scattered convection may develop late this morning into the afternoon hrs...with best potential for seeing SHRA/TSRA over WRN sections of the state this afternoon. However...some chances for convection may be seen as far east as portions of central AR.

Chances for precip look to decrease by this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating...and with the upper wave moving east of AR. Chances for convection look much lower on Fri with a bit more ridging aloft over the state. Even so...some isolated afternoon convection may be seen over WRN /NWRN sections.

Chances for more convection return for Sat...with coverage expected to be more significant. This will be result of an upper low lifting north from TX into OK...and with an upper disturbance passing NE over AR in the SW flow aloft east of the upper low. Similar conditions will be seen again on Sun...with scattered convection expected for a good portion of the CWA.

The unsettled pattern will continue into early next week as SW flow aloft continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. By the middle of next week...expect the chances for precip to decrease as upper flow become less significant over the region. Even so...enough weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some isolated afternoon convection during the middle of next week.

The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated strong/SVR convection may be seen each day...along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated flash flooding.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist. However...a warm front will lift north during the morning hrs today...which may result in some patchy MVFR CIGs as moisture levels start to rise. Winds will switch from an E/NE wind to more SRLY by this afternoon. Some areas across WRN AR may see some convection develop by this afternoon...which may even develop into portions of central AR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 83 66 84 69 / 10 10 10 0 Camden AR 84 67 87 70 / 20 10 10 10 Harrison AR 80 66 81 67 / 30 10 20 0 Hot Springs AR 81 68 85 71 / 40 10 10 10 Little Rock AR 83 67 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 Monticello AR 86 67 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 80 68 84 71 / 60 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 81 65 82 67 / 30 10 20 10 Newport AR 85 67 85 70 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 85 67 86 71 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 81 69 85 71 / 50 20 10 10 Searcy AR 84 65 85 69 / 0 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 85 68 86 72 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.