textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- An approaching weather system will bring rain chances across western sections of Arkansas this afternoon and statewide tonight and Tuesday

- Some stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out over the west today and across the remainder of the state tonight into Tuesday night. The primary concern will be gusty winds

- Beneficial rain of an inch to an inch and a half will be possible with this weather system

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Local observations and satellite imagery from across the region this morning indicates expansive low clouds and areas of fog that are locally dense. Fog is not widespread enough and visibility is not low enough to hoist any headlines at this time but the situation will continue to be monitored through the remainder of the night. Southeast winds between 6 and 10 mph are likely keeping widespread dense fog from developing.

Forecast area remains under shortwave ridging with surface high off the Mid Atlantic coast providing a moist SE surface flow. Ridge will be moving off to the east today with a highly amplified upper trough, projected by guidance, to be located in the central plains by the end of the day and moving towards the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stray shower or two can be be excluded during the day today but the majority of the FA will be dry.

Guidance develops convection over eastern Oklahoma by the end of the day in an increasingly moist and unstable environment as the trough approaches. This area of convection will move into western Arkansas tonight and move across the majority of the FA Tuesday. A few of these storms may may produce a few damaging wind gusts especially during the afternoon hours when what instability there is will be maximized.

Widespread, ongoing precipitation, cloud cover and less than ideal dynamics will likely mitigate a widespread severe threat. The associated surface boundary moves from eastern Oklahoma early on Tuesday, into central Arkansas by the end of the day and crosses the Mississippi River Tuesday evening. Upper support will swing through primarily northern Arkansas keeping at least a chance of showers Tuesday night into very early Wednesday.

Zonal flow returns for most of Wednesday before another upper wave drops down for Thursday night and Friday but only minimal chances of rain are expected with this feature. Rainfall amounts of an inch to possibly an inch and a half are expected with locally higher amounts near any stronger convection. Seasonably cool air will overspread the FA in the wake of this system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Some MVFR conditions were noted this afternoon...and this may continue into the overnight hrs. Some scattered SHRA may be noted overnight into early Tue morning...as well as some patchy DZ. A line of convection will move through the state during the day on Tue...with widespread SHRA/scattered TSRA possible. Most of this activity should pass east of the state near the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 63 74 50 72 / 30 100 50 0 Camden AR 64 75 46 73 / 20 100 10 0 Harrison AR 63 73 48 66 / 80 100 10 0 Hot Springs AR 64 73 47 72 / 80 100 10 0 Little Rock AR 65 75 52 73 / 10 100 20 0 Monticello AR 66 78 51 73 / 0 100 60 0 Mount Ida AR 62 75 43 72 / 90 100 0 0 Mountain Home AR 63 72 49 66 / 40 100 20 0 Newport AR 64 77 52 71 / 10 100 60 0 Pine Bluff AR 64 77 48 73 / 0 100 40 0 Russellville AR 64 76 49 71 / 70 100 10 0 Searcy AR 63 76 49 72 / 20 100 40 0 Stuttgart AR 66 78 52 72 / 0 90 60 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.