textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

-Windy and dry conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

-Well above normal temperatures likely again today before a cold front moves through.

-Cooler air from Friday through early next week.

-Low rain chances Fri-Sat, with little QPF expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Main focus across the state today will be increasing wildfire danger, especially across the western half of the state. A strong sfc low will move from Kansas toward the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front. As the pressure gradient is enhanced by the sfc cyclone moving through the region, S/SW winds will really pick up throughout the day. Very dry air will be seen across the western half of the state and as RH values plummet below 25 percent this afternoon, the wildfire threat will really climb. In areas where RH values won't be critically low, strong winds will still be seen and winds could gust above 30 mph while the sfc low remains in the vicinity of the state.

The sfc low will continue its way toward the Great Lakes tonight with the trailing cold front making its way across the state. This will mark the end of the this period of well above normal temperatures. Cooler temperatures will be seen on Friday with the airmass remaining dry across the area. Sfc winds will be lighter, limiting any widespread fire weather concerns.

Going into the weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move across the middle of the country. At the sfc, a developing sfc low will develop and move east along the Gulf Coast. This will help provide some rain chances to mainly S/SE Arkansas on Saturday. From Saturday to Sunday, the mid-level flow will turn out of the N-NW over the state as deep troughing is expected across the eastern US. Sfc ridging will spill south across the central/eastern US and much colder air will filter in. A few nights of below freezing temperatures will be seen before H500 ridging moves in from the west and temperatures begin to moderate by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Expect VFR condns thru the new TAF PD, w/ recent vis sat imgry showing mainly Wrly high cloud covg moving acrs the state, w/ low Cu beginning to dissipate. Gusty SWrly winds should begin to weaken and turn towards NWrlies overnight at area terminals, with gustier condns still possible acrs Nrn terminals overnight. Some LLWS wl be possible at area terminals as well. Fri aftn should yield weaker Erly winds w/ VFR condns prevailing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 39 59 41 54 / 0 10 20 20 Camden AR 45 67 47 63 / 0 20 30 20 Harrison AR 32 56 37 48 / 0 0 20 20 Hot Springs AR 42 64 44 58 / 0 10 30 20 Little Rock AR 43 61 44 58 / 0 10 40 20 Monticello AR 48 68 49 64 / 10 20 40 20 Mount Ida AR 39 64 43 59 / 0 10 20 10 Mountain Home AR 32 56 36 50 / 0 0 20 20 Newport AR 40 58 43 52 / 0 10 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 45 64 46 59 / 0 20 40 20 Russellville AR 38 63 43 57 / 0 10 20 10 Searcy AR 39 60 41 56 / 0 10 30 20 Stuttgart AR 44 61 45 56 / 0 10 40 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ004-005-103- 112-113-121-122-130-203-212-213-221-222-230-313.