textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

-Dry and pleasant weather conditions early next week.

-Below normal temperatures today will precede near or slightly above normal temperatures going into early next week.

-Unsettled weather pattern anticipated for the middle portions of next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure over the central part of the CONUS has lead to dry and pleasant conditions across the region and state. Satellite late this afternoon only shows some diurnal CU across the state. Temperatures across the state are in the 60s with high temperature expected to top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

As we head into the latter part of the weekend, both deterministic and ensemble model guidance points to the pattern becoming active and unsettled around the middle of the upcoming work week.

Satellite this afternoon shows a cut off low over the Pacific off the northern California coast. All available guidance shows this low will dive southward through today into Sunday and enter southern California around Sunday afternoon/evening. Model guidance does vary on timing on the low coming ashore on Sunday into Monday. A shortwave ridge will slide east across the state promoting south/southwest winds and bring the warmest temperatures of the upcoming work week across the state on Monday.

Meanwhile, multiple lobes of energy will dive southeast as a long wave trough digs across the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday into Monday. An attendant cold front over the far northern plains will push toward the central Plains. The front will move into the central Plains on Sunday. A shortwave will move east across the southern Plains on Sunday, then then into the southeast US by Sunday night. This will promote south to southwest winds over the area bringing the warmest temperatures of the work week to the state.

The cold front will remain north of the state for most of Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of Arkansas within the unstable environment. A look at model soundings shows roughly 1000-1500J/kg along with bulk shear values of 50-60kts and steep lapse rates will owing to a damaging wind and large hail threat, but a few tornadoes are not completely out of the question. The cold front will move into northwest Arkansas on Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the cold front will move through the rest of the state with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly across parts of south and southeastern Arkansas. For Thursday, the axis of the upper trough will move over the state with cooler and drier air filtering in with high temperatures a few degrees below normal.

High pressure will move out of the central Plains into the lower Mississippi by Friday afternoon allowing winds to turn to the south and southwest with temperatures a few degrees above normal on Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR condns are fcst thru the new TAF PD... Diurnal Cu were seen dissipating on recent vissat imgry, and expect NWrly winds to subside, w/ light and VRB winds prevailing overnight Sat. SWrly winds will resume on Sun.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 43 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 45 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 42 77 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 45 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 46 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 47 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 44 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 40 77 57 81 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 45 76 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 46 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 43 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 43 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 47 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.