textproduct: Little Rock

UPDATE

Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon

-Near record temps Friday

-Rain and t'storm chances along cold front Friday evening into Saturday

-Critical Min RHs statewide Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A decaying line of thunderstorms is pushing an outflow bounty across Central AR early Thursday morning. Behind it rainfall rates continue to weaken and will eventually dissipate by sunrise. A few light lingering showers are possible but much QPF with these should not be expected.

Thursday afternoon highs will recover well behind this system, widespread upper 70s to mid 80s are expected. A very subtle H500 shortwave over Central MO in phase with the peak diurnal heating will fuel a few t'storms over NE AR. The peak buoyancy, right around 3000J/kg of SBCAPE, and peak shear, between 50 and 60kts bulk shear, are mostly offset on other sides of I-40 respectively mid-afternoon. This will keep the overall severe risk lower this afternoon. Any storm that can fire near the boundary and bridge the gap between the better shear and better CAPE would likely become dominate but the rather weak and offset forcing will keep this risk low. Rain chances will end just after sunset.

Friday well above average temps will build in with a ridge moving quickly across the region. Mid to upper 80s are expected across Central and East AR, some locations could reach into the 90s. This heat will quickly be pushed out as the trough that has sparked several days of active weather finally ejects through and drags a cold front across our FA after sunset Friday night. Rain chances will begin to increase in NW AR around midnight Sat and push into the rest of the state throughout the day Sat.

As these storms approach on Friday evening they will yet again be weakening as they enter our area. Rain chances will be scattered across much of the state during the day Saturday before an uptick in coverage along the front begins to happen around sunset in SE AR. Most locations in the state will be lucky to get a half of an inch in rain, the most likely areas to exceed that mark Sat into Sun will be in the NW and SE corners of the state.

Behind to cldfrnt Sunday very dry air will spread across the state. Min RH values nearing the 20th percentile will be likely across a good portion of the state Sun afternoon. Winds will be light out of the NNE after the front and rainfall from early in the week will keep the area wide fire risk lower, but locations that dodge the majority of the rainfall this week could dry out by mid afternoon and have an elevated fire risk Sun.

Mon will be slightly less dry but Min RH values are still expected to be at or below 30th percentile across much of the state. Winds will shift to out of the S as a ridge deepens across the middle of the county through the midweek. This will allow for moisture to slowly return and Min RHs will recover above critical thresholds by Tues. As the ridge builds temps will climb from normal early week back to above normal mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Expect MVFR flight category at the western, central, and southern terminals across Arkansas as CIGS lower with as a mixture of SHRA with occasional TSRA moves across Arkansas to begin the forecast period through midday on Thursday. Expect a return of all sites to VFR flight category by Thursday afternoon as the activity diminishes and moves east of Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 65 86 61 / 80 20 20 50 Camden AR 85 64 88 63 / 40 10 0 20 Harrison AR 80 63 83 50 / 40 10 30 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 86 60 / 50 20 10 40 Little Rock AR 82 65 87 63 / 70 20 10 30 Monticello AR 85 66 88 66 / 30 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 81 63 85 57 / 40 20 10 50 Mountain Home AR 80 62 85 54 / 50 10 30 70 Newport AR 82 64 87 61 / 80 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 83 64 88 64 / 60 10 0 20 Russellville AR 82 63 86 59 / 60 20 10 50 Searcy AR 81 62 87 61 / 80 20 10 30 Stuttgart AR 82 66 87 64 / 80 10 10 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.