textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Upper level high pressure centered to the east of the state this morning will slowly move to the ENE over the next few days.

- Heat advisories will remain in effect through Thursday with heat index values forecast to be over 105 degrees.

- As the high moves away, the chances of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase starting Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

An amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS early this morning with pronounced deep upper trough across the western US extending from the northern Plains to the Desert southwest. Upper level riding conversely remains in place across the eastern half of the CONUS with the upper high centered over the Ohio River Valley region.

Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of Arkansas under clear skies with light and variable winds.

Dry conditions where noted across the state on Tuesday. Hi res model data later today shows an area of enhanced low level moisture advecting into parts of far southeast and southern Arkansas this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across portion of far southeastern Arkansas. BUFKIT and DESI soundings over southern and far southeast Arkansas show precipitable water values around 1.85 inches which is just a tad below the 90th percentile for early July. Strong surface heating this afternoon across the aforementioned areas will support ample buoyancy with surface based CAPE values in the 2500 to 3000 J/Kg with little to no cap across the area. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain isolated across the area due to with no real forcing mechanism. BUFKIT and DESI soundings early this morning show the presences of mid level dry air and steep low level lapse rates would favor an isolated damaging wind or microburst potential with the strongest thunderstorms.

Guidance shows upper level high pressure currently over the Ohio River valley will stay near stationary today, then gradually move east-northeast toward the Carolinas around Friday. The ridge of high pressure is expected to flatting out in response to the upper trough across the western US ejecting northeast into the northern and central plain Friday into Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be tied to diurnal heating each day through the holiday weekend. As we head into next week, model guidance shows ridging rebuilding over parts of the southern plains with troughing mainly confined to the Pacific northwest and northern and central Plains. A surface cold front will dive out of the northern plains this weekend reaching as far south as the Ozark Plateau by early next week. High pressure over the southeastern US continue to pull deep moisture northward into the state providing increasing cloudiness and rain and storm chances that will keep temperatures in the lower to mid 90s through the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period as high pressure continues to remain in control. Light surface southeast to southwest winds will persist with an isolated gust up to 15 kt possible across northern terminals during the afternoon hours. Short term and HREF guidance does show some mid and high level cloudiness moving in to parts of southeast and southern Arkansas around 00z tonight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible near the end of the period across far southeast Arkansas, which could impact KLLQ but confidence remains too low to place into the TAF during this cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 96 77 96 77 / 0 10 20 0 Camden AR 96 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0 Harrison AR 92 74 91 74 / 0 0 20 10 Hot Springs AR 96 77 95 76 / 0 10 10 10 Little Rock AR 97 78 95 79 / 0 10 10 0 Monticello AR 96 76 94 77 / 10 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 94 75 93 75 / 0 10 10 10 Mountain Home AR 93 76 92 75 / 0 0 20 0 Newport AR 97 78 97 77 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 96 76 94 76 / 0 10 10 0 Russellville AR 97 78 95 78 / 0 0 30 10 Searcy AR 97 77 96 77 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 97 78 96 78 / 0 10 20 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024- 025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-064-065-069-121>123-130-138-223- 230-238.