textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of W, SW, S, SE AR today

- Scattered showers/storms are possible over SW AR this afternoon

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices today and Tuesday

- Upper level pattern shift by late week may introduce rain chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Abnormally hot and dry conditions will continue across much of AR beneath an expansive upper ridge. This ridge is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Srn Plains through middle part of this week. Resultant large scale forcing for subsidence should inhibit widespread organized convection through at least Wednesday.

Currently, a weak backdoor cold front was moving across the state from NE to SW. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of SW/W/S AR later this afternoon along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it becomes nearly stationary over the ArkLaTex's region. Brief gusty winds would be the main thunderstorm hazard with any strong storm. Temps over SW/W/S AR will be hot thanks to compressional warming ahead of shower and thunderstorm development. Across this portion of the state, highs may range from 100 to 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is also in effect across the aforementioned locations through this evening for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

Elsewhere, winds will be E/NErly behind the front with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values peaking below 105 degrees as slightly drier air advects into the state from the NE. Drier air will stick around into Tuesday for a large part of the state before winds switch to the S/SW on Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Long range ensemble guidance is depicting weakening/retrograding of the ridge in the Thursday through Saturday time frame with broad NW flow becoming established. Unsettled weather might make a return on Thursday through Saturday while also introducing slightly cooler temps to the state. Highest PoP chances will be over the Nrn half of AR each of these days. Unfortunately Srn half of AR may not see much appreciable rainfall during these three days. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to slowly build back into the region with rain chances dwindling.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. A backdoor cold front is currently moving through the state switching winds to a NErly direction. Scattered clouds are anticipated to develop during the afternoon but bring no operational impacts to area terminals. Winds will be E/NErly at around 10 kts. A few SHRA/TSRA are possible over far SW AR in the afternoon, but did not include at KADF or KLLQ due to low confidence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 95 66 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 102 71 100 73 / 20 10 20 0 Harrison AR 94 67 97 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 100 71 101 74 / 10 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 98 72 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 98 73 99 75 / 0 0 20 0 Mount Ida AR 102 69 100 71 / 20 10 20 0 Mountain Home AR 93 66 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 95 68 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 98 70 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 98 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 96 68 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 98 71 100 76 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ042-052>055-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237- 238-240-241-340-341.