textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

-Well above normal temperatures through much of the period

-Occasional chances for thunderstorms from Sunday through much of next week

-The most widespread/heaviest precip expected across western AR

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

There aren't many significant changes to the forecast this morning as the large scale pattern over the next 7 days or so remains fairly similar to what has been advertised recently. Looking at the H500 level, a persistent ridge will generally reside over the Gulf extending northeastward across the SE US. Extending north of this feature, a ridge axis will move from the middle of the country eastward and will largely be in place across the eastern US. Looking across the western US, a robust cyclone will move onshore along the northern CA coast Sunday and will slowly weaken after moving inland. With time, this cyclone will open and elongate before ejecting E/NE across the middle of the country later next week. What this means for much of the Central and Southern Plains is persistent mid-level SW flow aloft. Well above normal temperatures and abundant moisture will be pumped northeastward. As pieces of shortwave energy aloft move across the area, several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will develop.

For Arkansas, we are generally on the sidelines for much of this activity as the SE US ridge will largely remain more dominant than the systems attempting to work against it. So, western Arkansas will be most favored for precipitation with chances tapering off toward the MS River. Over the next few days, chances for precip will increase from Sunday evening into Monday as the ridge to the south retreats slightly.

By the middle to later part of the upcoming week, the ridge is expected to flatten as the main western trough moves east across the country. At the sfc, a cold front will try to approach from the west on Thursday-Friday and widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across Arkansas. With the ridge's influence weakened, precip may be able to make it across more of the state.

Overall rainfall amounts will generally be highest across western AR through the period with little to no precip expected across portions of far eastern and southeast Arkansas. On Sunday afternoon, as precip develops across western areas, much drier air will be in place across portions of eastern and northeast Arkansas. These areas will see gusty southerly winds during that timeframe. This could provide an increase to the wildfire danger across mainly NE Arkansas Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some mid and high level cloudiness is expected throughout the period at all TAF sites. Light S/SW winds will prevail through early Sunday morning, then become breezy by mid to late morning across the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 63 82 67 81 / 0 20 60 50 Camden AR 61 84 64 82 / 0 20 60 50 Harrison AR 63 78 65 82 / 10 50 60 30 Hot Springs AR 62 82 64 79 / 10 40 60 50 Little Rock AR 63 84 67 82 / 0 20 60 50 Monticello AR 62 84 66 84 / 0 10 30 40 Mount Ida AR 63 80 64 78 / 10 50 60 50 Mountain Home AR 63 80 65 82 / 10 40 60 20 Newport AR 63 82 67 81 / 0 10 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 62 84 65 83 / 0 10 50 50 Russellville AR 63 82 65 81 / 10 50 60 40 Searcy AR 59 84 64 82 / 0 20 50 50 Stuttgart AR 63 83 67 82 / 0 10 50 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.