textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

-Temperatures and humidity will increase into the weekend, with increasing chances of heat headlines Friday and Saturday.

-Rain chances increase Thursday and Friday with afternoon showers and thunderstorms ahead of a front.

-This upcoming hot and humid pattern is expected to last into next week. Make sure to take breaks outside and drink plenty of water.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

High pressure will continue through this afternoon with light southerly winds across much of Arkansas. Mostly clear skies will allow for temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s through this afternoon, especially within the Arkansas River Valley. Surface dewpoints have been observed between 65 F - 70 F, which should mix down through the afternoon. Therefore, afternoon heat index values are expected to rise above 100 F in most areas. Some pockets of 105+ F are forecast across the region, but confidence in higher coverage of these values has precluded a Heat Advisory for this afternoon.

An upper disturbance over the Plains and Midwest will attempt to bring a few showers to the northern portions of the state overnight tonight. However, the parent wave will remain too far north to bring more appreciable rainfall further south. This will lead to yet another day of hot, humid conditions Thursday. Forecast heat index values are once again expected to rise above 100 F throughout the afternoon with some areas also reaching 105+ F. A Heat Advisory was considered for portions of the Arkansas River Valley, but diurnal mixing and afternoon showers/thunderstorms has again precluded heat headlines for tomorrow. With respect to afternoon showers and storms, negligible shear and DCAPE above 1000 J/kg will promote isolated gusty winds, but a severe threat does not appear that great with skinny CAPE profiles.

The upper disturbance over the Midwest will deamplify into Friday with broad upper troughing over the northern Plains/Midwest becoming more zonal. Short-medium range models suggest that a boundary associated with repeated rounds of convection over Missouri will push south into northern Arkansas Friday. Model soundings indicate the presence of sufficient afternoon instability to promote additional thunderstorm development, particularly north of Little Rock towards the Ozarks and northeastern Arkansas. Limited shear (<20 knots) will keep storms unorganized, which depending on the time of day the boundary arrives, could be further inhibited by paltry low-level lapse rates. This also impacts confidence in the magnitude of afternoon heat indices, which again are expected to rise to 100 F or higher depending on the interference of thunderstorm-related outflow. However, depending on the extent of the cooling, heat headlines may be needed for portions of the region Friday.

After Friday's front, a more stagnant pattern will take hold over the region with a subtle increase in ridging building aloft. Synoptically speaking, this looks to be the best time for afternoon heat index values to peak above 105 F with enough confidence spatially to raise the need for heat headlines. Therefore, we may need Heat Advisories through this weekend, possibly lasting into the beginning of next week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are also not out of the question each day, but the synoptic pattern is more hostile by this point, which will allow for a higher coverage of 105+ F heat index values. Beyond this weekend, ensembles are in good agreement that this pattern will continue beyond Monday through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the state during the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then predominately out of the south during the morning hours. High pressure will slide to the east of the state allowing winds to veer to the southwest. Isolated to scattered SHRAs/TSRAs are expected Thursday afternoon, with the greatest concentration across the northern half of the state as a weak disturbance approaches northern Arkansas from the central Plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 74 97 75 96 / 10 20 20 40 Camden AR 74 96 74 95 / 30 10 10 10 Harrison AR 75 94 74 92 / 20 10 20 60 Hot Springs AR 75 98 75 97 / 30 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 76 99 77 98 / 30 10 10 20 Monticello AR 74 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 73 96 73 95 / 30 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 74 94 73 92 / 30 10 30 50 Newport AR 74 97 75 96 / 0 10 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 74 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 20 Russellville AR 76 100 76 98 / 30 10 10 30 Searcy AR 74 97 74 96 / 10 10 20 30 Stuttgart AR 75 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.