textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

-Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories will encompass the entire state of Arkansas beginning Monday Midday through Tuesday Evening as high temperatures will be in the low 90s to a few degrees beyond the century mark across the state. Heat index values will be extremely dangerous ranging from 105 to 115+ degrees across the state.

-A weak shortwave trough is progged to traverse the eastern flank of the stout ridge cemented over the Southern Plains. In response, a cold front (rather cool front) will track from north to south across Arkansas on Wednesday which will provide a temporarily relief from the intense heat through Thursday.

-Into Friday and the upcoming weekend, the upper level ridge is anticipated to rebound elongated from over the Four Corners region to over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS; this will equate to a gradual increase of temperatures overall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

MONDAY (TODAY) and TUESDAY

Heat products will become active later this morning into the middle of the day across the Natural State and last through Tuesday evening. The entire state can expect either a Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning to be in place at their location. The difference will depend on the forecasted heat index values as Extreme Heat Warnings need forecasted heat index values of 110 degrees or higher. In comparison, a Heat Advisory is for locations where heat index values are forecasted to be between 105 and 109 degrees. It's important that regardless of which heat product your location is under that heat safety be practiced over this two day stretch of oppressive high temperatures and dangerous heat index values as both products demand attention to remain safe.

In the upper lvls, a stout region of ridging overall remains in control of the overall flow pattern and weather conditions across an elongated region from over the Four Corners region of the CONUS extending eastward to over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. Arkansas, although underneath the eastern periphery of this dome of high pressure will be positioned to expect dangerous temperatures, heat index values, and limited to nil POP chances due to overall subsidence.

At the sfc, the main feature attributing to these dangerous heat values will be light, but persistent south-southwesterly winds which will advect dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s into the state via the Gulf and keep those heat index values in dangerous territory.

WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY

In the upper lvls, a shortwave trof is progged to eject around the northeastern periphery of the ridge. In response, at the sfc, a cold front is forecast to move from north to south across Arkansas over during the day on Wednesday which will begin a period through Friday of northerly winds at the surface overall and a cooler airmass behind the frontal boundary. Additionally, POP chances will be elevated slightly on Friday into Saturday across parts of the state.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY

The upper lvl ridge is expected to re-amplify over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS to over the Lower Mississippi Valley region of the CONUS. In response, temperatures will slowly uptick each day overall. The interesting factor will be an possible weak tropical system or remnant low and interaction with the now forecast stationary boundary in Louisiana and Mississippi that will linger across the region and keep POP chances in the forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Expect VFR conditions across all terminals for the forecast period between Monday morning and Tuesday morning. Included for northern, central, and southeastern sites are "PROB30 GROUPS" for -SHRA, but confidence is low and overall dry conditions are anticipated over the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 97 78 101 77 / 30 10 0 10 Camden AR 99 76 102 77 / 10 10 20 20 Harrison AR 95 77 99 73 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 99 78 101 80 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 99 80 101 80 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 98 78 99 79 / 20 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 97 78 100 79 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 95 77 98 73 / 30 0 0 0 Newport AR 98 78 101 77 / 20 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 97 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0 Russellville AR 99 78 102 79 / 20 0 0 10 Searcy AR 98 77 101 78 / 30 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 97 79 100 79 / 20 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>006-014-015-024-042-052>054-062-063-066>068-103-112-113- 121-123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-240-241- 313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065- 069-122-238.