textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- High pressure will drive the short term forecast, with warming temperatures noted across the forecast area today and Tuesday.

- Very dry air, critically dry short-term fuels, and gusty southwest winds will keep local wildfire danger elevated the next few days.

- A cold front on Wednesday will usher in a period of more seasonable to cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Recent nighttime sat imgry depicted mostly clear skies over the Natural State, w/ broad sfc high pressure extending SW to NE over the Srn Cntrl US. Thru the day Mon, the center of sfc high pressure should shift E-SEwrd, w/ a stronger sfc pressure gradient developing acrs the Nrn half of the state. Under this pattern, Mon wl see the return of SWrly winds and temps trending upwards towards the 60s in some locations. Significantly dry air, characterized by dewpoint temps in the teens to low to mid 20s wl remain in place, and some locations may see afternoon min RH values less than 25%, given the potential for adiabatic warming and drying fm downward momentum transport.

As previously mentioned, warming temps wl continue again on Tues as low-lvl SWrly flow persists, w/ aftn high temps set to climb to the mid to upper 60s at most locations. A pattern change is expected to unfold by mid-week though, as mean H500 troughing wl stay rooted over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

Latest deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF are fairly consistent on the evolution of H500 flow by mid-week, w/ a highly amplified trof digging aggressively into the Srn US. This trof wl feature strong meridional flow over the Nrn Cntrl US, allowing for Canadian Continental air to surge into the Great Plains. The Natural State wl see a strong cdfrnt and asctd NWrly flow move thru the region on Wed, along w/ some low-chance PoPs acrs Nrn to Ern AR Wed aftn to evng.

Particularly cold air should settle in on Thurs mrng, w/ latest NBM guidance depicting low temps in the upper teens to low 20s at most locations (which closely resembles 25th percentile values). In the wake of this frnt, more seasonable temps wl prevail acrs the FA, w/ daily highs in the 40s to 50s thru the end of the week.

Late in the PD, another shot of anomalously cold air appears possible as deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicating a strong vorticity max pivoting thru mean troughing flow. Some uncertainties remain around timing and precip potential w/ the latter system, but the long term trends suggest colder condns prevailing thru at least the latter half of the fcst PD and into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR condtions are expected to prevail during this forecast period. A southwest surface wind of 5-8kts will prevail from 15z to 00z. Gusts between 10 and 18kts are expected across extreme northwest sections during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 56 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 Camden AR 55 33 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 59 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 55 35 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 55 36 65 44 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 55 36 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 37 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 36 67 41 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 54 34 63 43 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 54 35 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 58 33 67 42 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 55 32 65 41 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 52 35 62 43 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.