textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A few scattered PM showers are possible over the next couple days; Rainfall should not amount to much in any particular location

- Heat Advisories in effect for portions of the state through Sunday

- Upper level ridge ensures hot/dry conds persist the next seven days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Summer-like pattern set to continue across AR beneath an elongated upper ridge. This persistent ridge has brought above average temps and below average precip to many locations over the past several weeks. There are some winners in regards to August monthly precip, but that does not speak for the majority of the state which ended up at varying degrees of below average monthly/seasonal rainfall.

A few stray showers will be possible over Srn AR Friday afternoon/early evening as weak upper level energy moves E to W around the Srn periphery of the ridge. Additional stray scattered showers will be possible Saturday afternoon/early evening for the same reason/location as described on Friday. These times of day are favored due to peak heating coupled with maximum instability. Lastly, some showers will be possible on Sunday afternoon/evening associated with backdoor cold front pushing in from the OH Valley but keep in mind that the large scale pattern will work to inhibit convection. All of these precip chances are <20% with little to no appreciable rainfall expected in an particular location. This is pretty much it as for rain chances over the next week, perhaps even longer based on long range ensemble guidance.

The upper ridge is progged to strengthen heading through the weekend, increasing large scale forcing for subsidence over the Srn MS Valley. This will work against PoP development through much of next week. As the ridge intensifies, temps are expected to climb into the upper 90s to >100 degrees. Heat index values should range from 100-110 most afternoons. Given this, a heat advisory is in effect through Sunday evening for the AR River Valley, Cntrl AR, and much of Ern AR where apparent T's near or greater than 105 overlap with Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A brief reprieve from heat index values is looking more likely on Monday and some of Tuesday with the arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary. Relief should be temporary as winds switch to the S/SW late Tuesday into Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy all but 6 of 75 AR counties. These 6 counties were mainly confined to N-Cntrl into Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in the last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the forecast, decreasing soil moisture/plant moisture will worsen drought conditions and increase the statewide wildfire threat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds are expected during the afternoon on Fri, with perhaps a stray SHRA over Srn AR but did not mention at any terminals due to low confidence. Winds should be S/SE at around 5-10 kts with gusts less than 20 kts on Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 100 78 101 77 / 10 0 10 0 Camden AR 96 73 96 73 / 10 10 20 0 Harrison AR 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 95 75 96 75 / 10 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 97 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 96 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0 Russellville AR 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 98 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230- 237-238.