textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Upper level high pressure will begin to build over the area bringing hot and humid conditions to the region.

- Heat index values will likely exceed 105 degrees across the Delta and the Arkansas River Valley. Heat advisories are in effect from this afternoon through Thursday morning. Several counties are under an extreme heat watch.

- Rain chances will be near zero until Wednesday when some small chances of precipitation return.

- Heat related headlines may need be be reissued/expanded late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

After several evenings/overnights dealing with convection coming in from the west, conditions are much quieter across the region this morning. Only some high level clouds are noted as upper level high pressure starts to build across the region. Temperatures remain on the warm side with mid to upper 70s common at this time.

Period initiates with sprawling H5 trough over the Northern Rockies and subsequently upper ridging starting to build along the central gulf coast. Guidance continues to show the upper pattern becoming highly amplified by late Tuesday with troughing covering the majority of the west and significant ridging over the eastern CONUS with the anticyclone centered over the Tennessee Valley.

Upper flow will be southerly over the FA, keeping plenty of heat and humidity in place. With high temperatures well into the 90s and dew points in the 70s, heat index values will be over the century mark for most of the FA. The delta counties and the Arkansas River Valley will see heat indices over 105 degrees and a heat advisory has already been issued starting this afternoon and continuing through Thursday morning. Several counties are also in an extreme heat watch where heat index values could top 110 degrees. Precipitation chances are near zero through Tuesday as widespread subsidence will squash any rain potential.

The anticyclone will move just enough to the east/northeast by Wednesday morning that a weak moisture tap develops. This results in a low end chance of showers over the SE quadrant of the CWA on Wednesday. Low POPS will be area wide on Thursday through Sunday as the FA will be on the western periphery of the upper high. Amounts will be minimal and largely driven by diurnal heating.

Guidance continues to show temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s Thursday through next weekend. Dew point temperatures may actually be even higher courtesy of any precipitation that falls. Heat index values will likely remain above heat advisory criteria and expand further west and south of where they are currently in affect. No changes in the configuration of the heat headlines will be made this morning but will likely need to be reassessed mid to late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to build over the region through the period resulting in widespread VFR conditions. Winds will be from the south to southwest and a little gusty at times. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible for a few hours around sunrise this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 95 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 94 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 95 79 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 95 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 95 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 95 78 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 95 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 95 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 95 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-031-039-044>046-056-057-064-065-069-121- 122-130-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ024- 123-223.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ032>034-047.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for ARZ032>034-047.