textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

-An overall quiet weather pattern will be in place through Saturday across the state

-A quick moving cold front will move across the state on Sunday bringing an opportunity of strong to severe thunderstorms

-The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has designated a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over most of Arkansas and an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) across northeastern Arkansas on Sunday

-Into Sunday Night and the early morning hours on Monday, light snow will be possible across the northern half of Arkansas as moisture wraps around behind the cold front

-Early Monday and Tuesday mornings will likely warrant widespread frost and freeze products as below freezing temperatures will be across part of the state on Monday morning and most of the state on Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

FRIDAY (TODAY)/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, west-northwesterly flow over Arkansas becomes zonal flow by Saturday. At the sfc, a dry stationary boundary will be positioned along the Arkansas/Missouri border. Surface winds will be established out of the south over this period and will assist in advecting warmer temperatures into the state of Arkansas. Expect fair weather conditions over this period with a gradually warming of temperatures overall.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT:

In the upper lvls, a H500 trof begins to dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front lifts northward into the Mid-West and Ohio River Valley regions of the CONUS with a sfc low pressure center positioned in the vicinity of northeastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri.

Latest available 00Z guidance from multiple models in the medium-range have hinted at the possibility of a broad warm sector opening over much of Arkansas: The parameter space of SBCAPE is noted around 500 J/kg across northern Arkansas, 500 J/kg to 1,500 J/kg across central Arkansas, and 1,500 J/kg to 2,000 J/kg across southern Arkansas. In tandem over the same parameter space, effective bulk shear values between 45 to 60 knots are forecast to be in place across Arkansas.

The parameter space is much primed for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorm development, but a stout CAP or lid on the atmosphere is projected to be in place earlier in the day on Sunday. Thunderstorm development will greatly hinge on the ability of this CAP to be eroded by either intense daytime heating or an ample increase of low level moisture. The likely solution of eroding the CAP will be the solution of intense afternoon daytime heating, but the position of the cold front if too far east across Arkansas by the afternoon timeframe will greatly diminish thunderstorm potential across the CWA; however, if the cold front remains west of Arkansas or nearing the Arkansas/Oklahoma border by Sunday afternoon, then sufficient heating needed at the surface to allow parcels to reach their convective temperature will likely occur and open up the potential for all modes of severe weather ahead and along the cold front in the primed parameter space across the state. The advertised greatest severe weather hazards will be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes within the expected linear storm mode along the cold front, but if a few discrete cells manage form ahead of the cold front, then updrafts supportive of severe hail would be possible.

Additionally, the cold front will be quick moving with the possibility of a light rain and snow mix which may transition to a light snow at times across parts of the northern half of Arkansas as the moisture is expected to be able to be present for a few hours in wake of the cold front on Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday. Latest model runs have highlighted the possibility of a light dusting of snow accumulation across the northern half of Arkansas, but no major impacts are expected. The greatest areas that may see the light dusting would be on elevated and grassy surfaces as the cold air and moisture will be in a fight against time as the system moves rapidly eastward away from the state.

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a pronounced upper level ridge will be noted over the Southwestern region of the CONUS as the digging trof moves over the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS. In response over Arkansas, northwesterly flow will once again be present. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region behind the cold front leading to a period of quiet weather overall. The main story will be during the early morning hours on both Monday and Tuesday morning when Freeze and Frost products will likely be needed across a large portion of the state as the air mass behind the steep cold front will bring a shot of colder temperatures which will stick around on both Monday and Tuesday. The impact of a widespread frost/freeze will be widespread across the state early Tuesday morning and contained to portions of northern, central and western Arkansas early Monday morning. It is noted that any vegetation planted or left outdoors will need to be protected or moved indoors (if able) or will be likely be damaged or killed due to the cold temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

In the the upper lvls, a well-defined ridge remains placed over the Southwestern region of the CONUS with northwesterly flow becoming northerly over Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front will move across the state during the day on Wednesday from south to north. A substantial increase of temperatures will be noted as this warm front will usher in much warmer temperatures to the Natural State as high temperatures statewide will increase from the 70s on Wednesday into the 80s on Thursday. Expect fair, but warm weather conditions over this two-day period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with some high CIGs possible around terminals. Surface winds will mainly be out of the southwest and west through the afternoon hours becoming more light and variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 74 57 72 / 0 0 0 80 Camden AR 46 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 50 Harrison AR 45 75 57 69 / 0 0 0 90 Hot Springs AR 46 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 70 Little Rock AR 47 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 60 Monticello AR 48 76 57 81 / 0 0 0 40 Mount Ida AR 47 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 70 Mountain Home AR 44 75 56 70 / 0 0 0 90 Newport AR 46 73 57 75 / 0 0 0 70 Pine Bluff AR 47 75 56 80 / 0 0 0 50 Russellville AR 47 78 56 75 / 0 0 0 80 Searcy AR 43 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 70 Stuttgart AR 47 73 57 77 / 0 0 0 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.