textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

-New front drops through the state today into tonight...with drier/cooler air returning. A reinforcing surge of very cold/dry air arrives on Saturday

-Combination of very dry air and elevated winds may create some more significant wild fire concerns on Saturday

-Coldest air settles across region Saturday night into Sunday...with lows in the teens for many areas Sunday morning. Some single digit lows may be seen for northern portions. Wind chills may approach zero up north...and single digits/teens further south Sunday

-Rain chances/warmup could return by the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Light SRLY winds have returned late Thu and into early this morning as SFC high pressure shifted east. These SRLY winds will continue this morning...but a new cold front to the NW will drop SE into the state later this morning...dropping SE of AR by this evening. As the front progresses SE today...there may be some very limited potential for precip just behind this front over NERN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the upper shortwave dives SE toward this portion of AR. Given very limited moisture levels...keep POPs low at this time.

Cooler and drier air will return tonight in wake of this new front. However...another surge of much colder and much drier air will arrive on Sat as the main upper shortwave axis drop SE over the region. Winds will increase as this happens...and with dewpts cratering down from the 20s today into the single digits and even below zero by late Sat afternoon. These very dry conditions combined with increasing winds may create enhanced wild fire conditions on Sat afternoon. Temps will also be dropping...keeping min RH values from dropping as considerably as they could.

With this latest cold surge on Sat...well below normal conditions will be seen over the weekend into early next week. Lows by Sun morning may drop into the teens for most areas...maybe even some single digits possible. Wind chill values Sun may drop to near zero at times across NRN sections...and single digits and teens further south.

The dry forecast will persist into early next week. However...the larger scale upper trough axis over the Great Lakes region will shift some to the east by late in the forecast...with some relaxing in the NW flow over the region. SRLY SFC flow will increase over the region...with some increased moisture levels possible. Chances for some rainfall look to return to the forecast as a result mid week...but overall confidence in seeing beneficial rainfall is fairly low this far out in time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Expect VFR flight conditions for the entire forecast period from Friday evening through Saturday evening across all terminals. Surface wind gusts will be possible at the onset of the forecast period at the sites of KHRO, KBPK, and KLLQ in excess of 21 knots which have been outlined in TEMPO groups for the first couple hours of the forecast period. Surface wind gusts will be present on Saturday afternoon across all terminals in excess of 25 knots that will last for the remainder of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 28 40 16 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 30 45 19 46 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 24 34 13 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 30 42 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 31 43 19 44 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 33 48 22 45 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 29 42 16 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 25 36 13 44 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 28 39 18 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 32 44 20 44 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 28 42 17 47 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 27 41 16 42 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 31 41 20 41 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.