textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warming trend expected to commence today

- Rain chances return mid/late week with pattern change

- Monitoring Saturday/Sat evening for severe weather potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Skies were mostly clear across the state early this Sunday morning with winds nearly calm or calm. Predawn temps had fallen into the upper 30s to mid 40s through efficient radiational cooling. By daylight, temps should range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Today, winds will switch around to the S/SW between 10 and 15 mph. The combination of mostly sunny conditions coupled with return flow will aid high temps climbing into the mid/upper 70s.

Aloft, the pattern will transition to zonal for a couple of days, reinforcing above average temps across region. Highs are expected to climb well into the 80s through mid-week with little to no appreciable rain chances across the Little Rock CWA.

Quasi-zonal pattern should become more active as a low amplitude short wave trough move out of the Pac NW into the Cntrl Plains. On Wednesday, the short wave will eject into the Cntrl Plains/Mid MS Valley. A surface low traversing the Great Lakes region will have a trailing cold front extending back to the SW into TX. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the frontal boundary assisted by additional forcing for ascent from aforementioned trough. Precipitation onset time ranges from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.

A lack of upper level jet dynamics should limit storm organization and potential for severe weather. The front is expected to stall across the region serving as a focus for additional convection in the days to follow. Precipitation chances remain high Wednesday night through Thursday night. There might be a bit of a lull on Friday but rain chances return again on Saturday/Saturday night. The system on Saturday will be monitored closely as this round of precipitation could bring a potential for severe weather. Better moisture will be available, timing of day better aligned with available instability, and forcing for ascent stronger through a more potent trough pivoting across the Nrn Plains.

The probabilities for beneficial rainfall are increasing mid/late week. Probabilistic guidance suggest 30-70% of greater than 2" rainfall through Saturday night across a large part of AR and 20-50% of greater than 3" rainfall across a smaller footprint of AR. While these probabilities seem low at the moment, remember we are still four-seven days out from the bulk of precipitation.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the entire forecast period from Sunday midday through Monday midday with one exception late in the forecast period. The southeastern site of KLLQ will experience lowering CIGS to MVFR flight category later Monday morning. Low level wind shear will be present at the northern sites of KHRO and KBPK late Sunday evening and lasting until Monday morning. Surface winds will gust in excess of 20 to near 25 knots at the northern, central, and southeastern sites of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KPBF, KLLQ at the beginning of the forecast period (Sunday midday) through Sunday evening and again from late Monday morning through the end of the forecast window, but likely lasting into Monday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 83 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 58 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 59 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 56 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 58 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 62 82 64 86 / 0 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 57 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 57 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 58 81 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 59 82 62 85 / 0 10 0 0 Russellville AR 56 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 82 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 60 81 64 84 / 0 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.