textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

-A swath of 2-4" inches of rain is likely along or near the I-40 corridor early Monday morning. Localized 6+ inches is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of W, N, and C AR until 7PM Monday. Recent CAM trends have been fairly consistently be producing a swath of heavy rainfall along or near the I-40 corridor. Exact placement remains variable but confidence in a 2-4" in QPF swath with localized 6+ inch totals is growing. The highest rainfall totals will be where convection along an outflow boundary in S MO stalls in N AR, and an approaching MCS from KS/OK overlap.

Mesoanalysis still supports a QLCS threat in W AR. MLCAPE between 2500-3000J/kg along the AR/OK border dropping off to around 1500- 2000J/kg closer to the Little Rock metro. 0-3km SRH values between 100-150 m2/s2 as well as an increasing LLJ would support a conditional QLCS type tornado threat in bowing segments of the line. Point soundings show a decent layer of dry air aloft with DCAPE values >1000J/kg values would support depending rear inflow jets with potently damaging winds as the line enters the state. Relatively meager lapse rates and quick storm motion likely limits the hail risk to only the strongest of updrafts overnight. The most likely area for impactful severe weather would be in the Wstrn 1/3 of the state before this line loses most of its punch and transitions to a primary hydro threat.

Areas to the S of the line on Tuesday morning have a chance for scattered rain and t'storms. Recent CAM/HREF runs suggest that the heavier rainfall amounts will generate a stronger cold pool boundary making moisture recovery into S AR difficult with weak low level flow; this should limit PoPs to areas that do not receive any rainfall with the event Monday morning.

Through at least the midweek upper NWrly H500 flow will promote several shortwaves and associated MCS to form off the Rockies daily. Exact placement and impacts would have to be determined in a later forecast as mid-range model solutions are still quite wide in scope. Moisture return begins Tues. with return of Srthly sfc winds. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will creep into SW AR and have apparent T's approaching 100 with an increase in deeper moisture.

High temps and apparent T's will continue to rise into the late week as Srthly flow continues to bring balmy conditions across the Natural State. Long range signals continue to show a more active pattern due to the elongated ridge across Central CONUS. Several rounds of rain are possible through at least Friday before a sfc high begins to build over the Red River Valley next weekend returning drier conditions towards the end of the month.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Expect most sites to experience MVFR ceilings, most likely between 09z and 16z. Best chances for any TSRA will be across extreme southwest portions of the forecast area between 02 and 10z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 82 68 84 / 10 10 50 60 Camden AR 71 86 72 89 / 70 40 40 40 Harrison AR 66 79 68 81 / 10 20 60 80 Hot Springs AR 71 83 71 86 / 40 40 60 70 Little Rock AR 70 82 71 85 / 30 30 70 70 Monticello AR 72 85 72 88 / 60 40 50 60 Mount Ida AR 70 83 71 85 / 50 50 60 70 Mountain Home AR 65 79 68 81 / 10 10 60 60 Newport AR 68 83 69 85 / 10 10 50 50 Pine Bluff AR 70 83 71 86 / 40 30 50 70 Russellville AR 71 82 71 86 / 30 30 60 70 Searcy AR 68 82 69 85 / 20 20 50 70 Stuttgart AR 71 82 72 85 / 20 20 50 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.