textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

-Rain and thunderstorms expected through Saturday across the state, greatest rainfall across west to northwest Arkansas

-Return to normal temps behind a cold front into next week

-Elevated Fire danger into the beginning of next week

-Dry weather prevails through first half of next week, with rain chances returning by end of week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Recent observed radar depicted a large MCS moving acrs Ern OK, aprchg NW to Wrn AR. MRMS rainfall estimates acrs Srn Cntrl OK where the back building portion of this MCS was located indicated 1.5 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates. Short term guidance indicates this line should transition fm a fast forward propagating MCS to a slower training line (line movement becomes parallel to line orientation, and largely parallel to an H850 LLJ). NSSL WoFS guidance suggests a favorable environment to be in place acrs Wrn AR by 06Z ahead of the MCS for excessive rainfall, e.g., MUCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear of 30 kts, which will continue to support MCS maintenance thru the overnight PD. Last few runs of HRRR/RAP fcst soundings acrs Wrn AR also indicate a favorable heavy rainfall environment, e.g., PWATs > 1.5 in, and thermal profiles conducive for efficient warm rain processes.

Thru the overnight PD, widespread rainfall and thunderstorms is expected over the NWrn half of the state, w/ greatest excessive rainfall potential lying over Wrn AR, and possibly portions of the AR River Valley. High-end model solns suggest bands of 3 to 4 inches may be possible thru mid-morning Sat. An isolated flash flooding risk may arise Where rainfall rates are most excessive in the short term, particularly over more significant topography, but antecedent drought conditions and greening vegetation acrs the state may mitigate a more widespread flooding concern.

Thru the remainder of Sat, the aforementioned MCS should continue to move Ewrd across the state, in accordance with a cdfrnt moving thru the Midwest. The line wl lkly reach the ARKLAMISS region b/w 21-00Z Sat evening, w/ precip tapering off behind the frnt promptly Sat aftn.

Sun and thru at least mid-week, Wrn US H500 ridging wl amplify, w/ NWrly flow persisting over the Cntrl US. As such, sfc high pressure wl meander fm the Cntrl Plains to the Midwest thru the first half of next week, w/ settled and drier weather prevailing, and temperatures returning to more seasonal values acrs the FA.

By mid-week and thru the end of the PD, the aforementioned ridging is progged to weaken, w/ mean troughing returning over the Wrn to Cntrl US, as advertised by EPS/GEFS solns, signaling a return of unsettled weather to the Srn Cntrl US.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Widespread precipitation is expected across the terminals as a cold front presses through the state. Widespread IFR to MVFR conditions will slowly improve to VFR by the end of the period. Winds will shift to the NW behind the boundary and will be gusty at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 45 66 43 / 100 10 0 0 Camden AR 75 46 69 43 / 90 40 0 0 Harrison AR 63 40 63 39 / 90 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 45 68 43 / 100 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 71 46 68 45 / 90 10 0 0 Monticello AR 78 50 68 47 / 100 70 0 0 Mount Ida AR 70 44 68 42 / 90 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 40 65 39 / 90 0 0 0 Newport AR 71 45 65 43 / 90 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 46 67 43 / 90 60 0 0 Russellville AR 69 43 69 42 / 100 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 43 68 41 / 90 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 74 46 66 44 / 100 40 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.