textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

-Some fog possible this morning

-Elevated wildfire threat into Saturday due to low afternoon humidity

-Rain chances increasing Sunday into Monday

-A more persistent wet pattern setting up for portions of the state later next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A weak front dropped south through the state on Thu evening...triggering some isolated convection along this boundary. This convection has since moved SE of AR...with light NRLY winds noted behind the front. A clearing sky combined with the lighter winds may create some patchy fog this morning. There may even be some patchy dense fog at times...mainly under areas that saw rainfall on Thu afternoon/evening. Have issued a Dense Fog Adv for areas that have the best potential for seeing more persistent and widespread low VIS.

Somewhat drier air will settle across the state this Fri as weak SFC high pressure settles across the region. Even with the passage of the front...a mostly clear sky will still allow temps to warm above normal once again this Fri afternoon...with highs in the 70s for many locations. While NW flow aloft will persist...even warmer conditions are expected for Sat as SRLY SFC flow increases with the SFC high shifting east. An increased threat for wildfires may develop both days with these above normal conditions...and persistent dry air remaining. Winds should remain below any critical fire levels both days however.

There are some indications that a front may drop south/SW into the state on Sun...with some increased chances for rainfall returning to the forecast...as well as some cooler conditions. This front looks to settle across some portion of the state by Mon...with some continued chances for rain for portions of the state. By late Mon into Tue...flow aloft looks to transition to more SWRLY over the region...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. Temps will warm back above normal as a result...but will also see increasing moisture levels across the region.

With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may be...and timing of individual waves. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN portion of the state...and points further NW. Will see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The light winds and mostly clear sky have allowed for some fog to impact a few terminals this morning...which should continue for a few more hrs this morning. Expect improving conditions by later this morning and this afternoon...with dominant VFR conditions expected. Winds should become variable in direction...remaining mainly less than 10 kts sustained. There could be additional patchy fog again tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 48 76 47 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 76 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 74 50 77 45 / 0 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 75 48 78 53 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 73 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 75 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 76 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 20 Mountain Home AR 74 46 77 44 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 71 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 47 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 75 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 73 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 71 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ006>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-122-123-223-238.