textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

-Heat Advisory in effect for the Arkansas River Valley into Ern Arkansas Sunday afternoon

-Strong to severe storms possible Sunday overnight into Monday; all modes of severe weather are possible

-Multiple rounds of rain through the midweek, QPFs between 3-6 inches possible through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The sfc warm front that has been lingering in along the AR/LA border over the last several days has moved N of the I-40 corridor. Behind the front very humid conditions exist with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Apparent temps above 105 expected in the Arkansas River Valley today thus a Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon, and Monroe and Woodruff Counties have been added to the eastern edge since first issuance.

Currently out to our WNW an ongoing MCS is pushing east across KS. As it continues east it will begin to weaken across Srth MO. This will leave behind a remnant boundary in its wake that will function as a cold front across Cntrl MO. This boundary will allow for reinvigoration along it by mid-day Sun. Storms along this boundary will move slowly due S into Nrth AR. As this is ongoing another shortwave will form off the Rockies and drive a MCS ESE across KS following the boundary from the proceeding system. Both of these systems will enter the state very late Sun into early Mon morning.

This presentation will present a very interesting/complex storm mode and interactions as the MCS tries to cut across the ongoing convection along the outflow boundary. The environment these systems would be entering is moderate to strongly buoyant with MLCAPE values >2000J/kg that will be enhanced by the LLJ after midnight. The shortwave driving these storms will also help curve low level hodographs ahead of the MCS, 0-1km SRH values between 100-200m2/s2 in NW AR will be the most potent environment for the MCS as it enters the state. This would be the most likely area for traditional QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat. The MCS should overrun the outflow boundary storms and become dominate and transition more to a damaging wind threat as it pushes ESE across the state.

Additionally as these lines interact training storms will be possible across N to Central AR. 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance of 2.25-2.5 would likely get close to being exceeded in longer training storms.

Redevelopment much like what will occur to our N later today will occur late Mon into Tues across C and Sern Arkansas. Areas that were worked over by the complex will be more susceptible to flash flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

Much like the preceding two days another MCS will form off the Rockies and move along the wake of the preceding system eastward. CAM spread remains high on timing and intensity into Tues, but as of now flash flooding across Sthrn AR appears to be the biggest threat with this system.

Through at least the midweek upper NWrly H500 flow will promote several shortwaves and associated MCS to form off the Rockies daily. Exact paths and impacts would have to be determined in a later forecast as mid-range model solutions are still quite wide in scope. Moisture return begins Tues. with return of Srthly sfc winds. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will creep into SW AR and have apparent T's approaching 100 with an increase in deeper moisture.

High temps and apparent T's will continue to rise into the late week as Srthly flow continues to bring balmy conditions across the Natural State. Long range signals continue to show a more active pattern due to the elongated ridge across C CONUS. Several rounds of rain are possible through at least Friday before a sfc high begins to build over the Red River Valley next weekend returning drier conditions towards the end of the month.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Mix of MVFR/VFR conds are expected this morning with CIGs gradually increasing by midday. A few SHRA/TSRA is possible over Srn AR this afternoon, with additional SHRA/TSRA expected over Nrn sites after 06z with the approach of a system from the Cntrl Plains. CIGs are expected to decrease to MVFR once again. Winds should be S/SW between 10-20 kts this afternoon. Could be some higher gusts near convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 74 86 68 / 10 80 60 50 Camden AR 92 75 91 73 / 30 40 40 70 Harrison AR 88 71 81 66 / 20 90 50 70 Hot Springs AR 91 75 88 72 / 10 60 70 80 Little Rock AR 92 75 88 72 / 10 60 70 70 Monticello AR 91 75 90 74 / 40 50 70 70 Mount Ida AR 89 74 86 72 / 10 70 60 80 Mountain Home AR 88 71 81 66 / 20 90 50 50 Newport AR 92 75 87 69 / 10 80 60 50 Pine Bluff AR 91 75 89 73 / 20 60 70 70 Russellville AR 92 75 87 72 / 10 70 60 80 Searcy AR 92 74 87 70 / 10 70 60 60 Stuttgart AR 91 76 87 73 / 10 70 70 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039-043>047-121-122-130-138-230-238.