textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

-Rain chances lingering into early Saturday morning for southern portions of Arkansas.

-Temperatures will remain near average to a few degrees below average through Sunday across the state.

-The next opportunity for statewide rainfall will be by the middle of the upcoming workweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:

A closed low aloft ejecting east of the Rockies combined with a surface stationary boundary south of the state will be the focal point of rainfall today. There is a noticeable southerly shift to the rainfall axis, so the rain chances for southern Arkansas have decreased, with forecasted amounts also lowered through Friday evening (generally one quarter inch or less). Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day, with cool morning temperatures in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal.

THIS WEEKEND:

Very pleasant weather conditions developing this weekend as surface high pressure builds, as remnants of the stingy longwave troughing that's been centered across the central portions of the U.S. gradually shifts east of the region. Upper level ridging will remain to the west, so drying and warming conditions are anticipated, although temperatures continue to remain at or below normal through the weekend.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

Ensembles remain in excellent agreement through Monday, where the warming trend continues (25th-75th highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the state) as a result of a moderating ridge that will shift eastward across the Plains. However, another trough deepening across the Northern Plains Monday into Tuesday will phase with the sub-tropical jet, resulting in improving rain chances through the middle of the week. Depending on how amplified this trough becomes would affect timing of rainfall and the amounts, but consensus is an unsettled weather pattern as early as Tuesday through at least Wednesday. Uncertainties with the pattern evolution is resulting in low severe weather potential during this period at this time. With more active weather anticipated, temperatures moderating back towards normal levels is expected.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

Ensemble clusters depict the upper low across the Northern Plains again shifting eastward, but how quickly this troughing shifts will depend on how amplified this feature becomes going through next week. Should the troughing linger, another couple rounds of unsettled weather may commence, but that remains to be seen at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. VCSH are possible across extreme southern Arkansas through the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to be mostly light and variable through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 68 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 47 73 44 78 / 50 0 0 0 Harrison AR 42 65 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 47 71 43 77 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 48 71 45 76 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 49 72 46 77 / 50 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 45 70 42 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 66 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 47 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 48 71 44 76 / 30 0 0 0 Russellville AR 45 71 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 45 70 42 75 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 50 70 46 76 / 20 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.