textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly southern and central Arkansas.

- Widespread severe weather is not expected but some stronger storms could produce gusty winds.

- Temperatures will be seasonably warm through Wednesday before starting to climb once again.

- Heat advisories may be needed Thursday for the Delta counties and the Arkansas River Valley if current trends hold.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet conditions are noted over the FA this morning with generally clear skies and a little patchy ground fog in the usual areas. Expect the fog to become a little more widespread as daybreak approaches with T/TD spreads on the smaller side this morning. Temperatures remain mild to warm with most observation stations showing readings from the lower to mid 70s.

Pattern remains quite amplified this morning with ridging over the Rockies/central plains and subsequently, a positively tilted trough extending from the lower Great Lakes through the FA and into NE TX. Embedded in this trough is a vorticity maximum currently sitting along the AR/MO border. Guidance is consistent in moving this feature slowly to the south and east through the day and into Tuesday.

This feature will help to fire off diurnally driven convection primarily over central/southern Arkansas. CAMS guidance is showing generally weak shear but instability climbs to or exceeds 2500 J/KG with gusty winds the primary concern from any stronger storms.

Convection looks to get going near the vort max by mid afternoon and spreading to the southeast as the feature drifts that way. Activity looks to quickly diminish Monday evening with the loss of heating but returns Tuesday, but not as widespread as what will be seen today.

Trough finally does move off to the east on Wednesday w/ convection chances decreasing significantly. Flat upper ridge tries to move back in Thursday and beyond with temperatures increasing once again. Some guidance is showing ridging increasing more very late in the period and into the middle of next week.

Precip chances decrease more so as the the aforementioned ridging tries to return but diurnally driven convection can never really be completely ruled out. Temperatures will be seasonable today and Tuesday before climbing Wednesday and beyond. Heat indices are not expected to reach advisory criteria through Wednesday so headlines will not be necessary. However, staring Thursday, heat advisories may be needed once again over the delta and in parts of the Arkansas River Valley.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Any lingering convection continues to decrease quickly with little expected for the majority of the overnight period. Some patchy fog may occur overnight into early Tuesday. Additional, but widely scattered convection, may be seen Tuesday afternoon but coverage and location details too uncertain to mention within individual TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 88 70 90 73 / 40 20 20 10 Camden AR 90 71 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Harrison AR 85 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 0 Hot Springs AR 90 72 91 74 / 20 10 30 0 Little Rock AR 89 73 91 76 / 20 20 10 10 Monticello AR 89 72 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 Mount Ida AR 89 71 91 74 / 20 10 20 0 Mountain Home AR 86 69 88 72 / 20 10 10 0 Newport AR 89 72 90 74 / 30 20 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 89 71 90 75 / 20 10 20 10 Russellville AR 90 73 93 76 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 89 71 91 74 / 30 10 20 10 Stuttgart AR 89 73 91 76 / 20 10 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.