textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

-Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing today and especially for Sunday

-Chances for rainfall start decreasing early next week...with mainly dry conditions by the middle/latter half of next week

-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen

-Oppressive heat may settle across the region next week...with heat headlines becoming possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An upper low over SW TX early this morning will gradually lift NNE into KS by this evening. SW flow aloft will increase over the state through this same timeframe...with persistent SRLY SFC flow continuing. Weak upper disturbances will lift NE over portions of AR in the SW flow aloft...with some more coverage of convection possible than seen in previous days as a result. Best POPs will remain over WRN sections...but should see chances for SHRA/TSRA shift further east than in recent days.

The unsettled pattern will continue through Sun as SW flow aloft continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. Chances for convection will increase further...and shift further east as well. By early next week...flow aloft will become more WRLY as the upper low becomes a more open wave...and moves east over NRN AR. POPs will shift north in closer proximity to the upper wave...with best POPs over NRN AR on Mon.

By the middle of next week...expect the chances for precip to decrease as upper flow become less significant over the region. Even so...enough weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some isolated afternoon convection during the middle of next week.

The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated strong/SVR convection may be seen each day into Mon...along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated flash flooding.

By the middle to latter half of next week...upper riding will intensify over the region. Chances for precip will decrease further...and temps will gradually rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs. Humidity levels will remain high...which should result in some near critical heat index levels. Some spots may see hot/humid conditions as early as Mon/Tue. However...many areas may see oppressive heat by mid-week...continuing through the rest of next week. If this trend looks to come to fruition as currently forecast...heat headlines may be needed sometime next week as a result of oppressively hot conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Expect CIGS to begin to lower across all terminals going into the early morning hours of Saturday across the entire state to as low as IFR flight category. A large complex of rain and isolated storms will enter the state of Arkansas from the west. The western, northern, and central terminals have highest confidence for SHRA and possible VCTS throughout the day on Saturday. For lower confidence locations across the state such as KPBF and KLLQ have been designated with VCSH and VCTS. CIGS will improve to MVFR going into the evening hours on Saturday, but an elevated chance for rain and isolated storms will exist across the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 70 84 72 / 40 40 80 70 Camden AR 84 71 85 72 / 50 50 70 30 Harrison AR 76 67 80 70 / 60 80 80 60 Hot Springs AR 82 72 84 73 / 60 60 70 60 Little Rock AR 84 71 85 72 / 50 60 80 50 Monticello AR 85 72 86 74 / 50 30 70 20 Mount Ida AR 80 71 83 73 / 70 60 70 50 Mountain Home AR 77 68 80 70 / 50 50 70 80 Newport AR 86 71 86 73 / 30 40 80 70 Pine Bluff AR 85 71 85 73 / 40 40 70 30 Russellville AR 81 71 85 74 / 70 70 90 80 Searcy AR 85 70 86 71 / 40 50 80 60 Stuttgart AR 86 73 86 74 / 40 50 80 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.