textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

-Very pleasant end of week and early weekend

-Limited PoPs in Northern Arkansas from stalling cold front Friday afternoon

-Monday will be the first wave of several rounds of rain and t'storms next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Thursday afternoon will be the first of several surges of moisture through next week as southerly flow becomes dominate through the period. Dew points will rise up into the low to mid 50s across the state. Thursday will be a great Chamber of Commerce weather day. Very few clouds, SSE winds and highs in the upper 70s to just above 80 will make not taking a long lunch very hard. With these very pleasant conditions an upper level ridge will swing across the region ahead of the weekend.

Up north the first system in an active pattern starts to brew Thursday afternoon. A low pressure system centered near the Great Lakes is rounding the base of an upper level trough. This will eject a cold front southward across the Great Plains and Mid-West. As the front advects southward it begins to run into the teeth of the building ridge. Most organized showers will have already begun to diminish as they approach the northern border of the CWA as the front stalls across Southern MO. Measurable rainfall is not likely to outrun this front as the environment ahead of it remain comparatively dry and stable. PoPs will be limited to the north most row or two of counties across AR. Elsewhere across the state it will be another great day to be outside. Highs will raise another few degrees closer to the mid 80s. A few upper level clouds will spread across the region as the cold front approaches but there should be plenty of breaks in the clouds to enjoy the sun.

Into the weekend the delightful weather continues. Winds will continue out of the S and slowly shift from a SSE to S to just SSW through the weekend as the trough driving an active pattern next week begins to nudge out the ridge later in the weekend. With this transition to S mid-day Sunday, the LLJ will begin to stream much richer moisture across the region and remain rather stout through the end of the forecast period.

Sunday evening into early Monday morning will begin a more active period of weather that will last the majority of next week. A subtle short wave will round the base of a deepening trough based on the Four Corners. The best environment for development for storms has been roughly based around the greater I-35 corridor over the last several model runs. As storms approach the CWA they will become more upscale and begin to be more widely scattered across Southern and Western Arkansas.

After the first wave Sunday into Monday a lot of model variance still remains as the bulk of the system approaches. Timing in the last several runs has become the main determiner of the type and severity of any hazards we may get. Tuesday's dynamics appear to support the best environment for spinning storms but will be limited on forcing and lack of CAPE. Hodographs Weds become more elongated and straighter promoting splitting cells and more of a straight line wind event. Regardless of specifics at this time, that will be ironed out closer to the event, several days of impactful weather are likely across AR next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail during the valid TAF period. Any SHRA/TSRA across northwest sections will occur after 10/18z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 30 10 Camden AR 81 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 78 58 79 57 / 0 0 70 20 Hot Springs AR 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 80 58 83 59 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 80 59 80 58 / 0 0 20 10 Mountain Home AR 80 57 80 57 / 0 0 60 20 Newport AR 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 80 56 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 81 58 82 59 / 0 0 30 10 Searcy AR 80 55 82 57 / 0 0 20 0 Stuttgart AR 80 58 82 60 / 0 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.