textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later Tuesday afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon

-Temperatures overall across the state will remain near to maybe a few degrees below normal through mid-week

-Expect hotter conditions later in the week into the upcoming weekend... with heat levels approaching advisory criteria for some locations

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A look at the synoptic setup or upper-lvl features contributing to the forecast are as follows:

TUESDAY (TODAY) through WEDNESDAY:

The upper lvl pattern will consist of an elongated area of high pressure extending from over the Northern Plains to over the Great Lakes regions of the CONUS. As a result of the positioning of this upper lvl feature, a retrograding upper lvl low pressure center will be forced to move westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over Texas. Arkansas will be situated on the eastern and northern flanks of this upper lvl low pressure center which will assist in keeping the atmosphere unstable and leading to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.

THURSDAY through MONDAY:

The upper lvl pattern undergoes a transition as the northern region of high pressure breaks down. In its place, an intense, but broad ridge builds over the Western and Central regions of the CONUS. Over this period, Arkansas will be positioned on the eastern periphery of this expansive ridge, promoting subsidence or sinking air leading to the suppression of shower and thunderstorm development.

A look at the mesoscale setup or surface features contributing to the forecast are as follows:

TUESDAY (TODAY) through WEDNESDAY:

A stationary boundary positioned across southern Arkansas will begin the process of lifting northward as a warm front. As the warm front slowly progresses northward across the state, low-level convergence will take place and the advecting of Gulf moisture will be noted which will lead to an increase of POPs statewide or scattered shower and thunderstorm development over this period.

THURSDAY through MONDAY:

Into Thursday, the warm front washes out and moves out of the region. In response, a large area of surface high pressure moves into the region across the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The feature is progged to remain in close proximity to Arkansas through Monday. Additionally, surface winds will become southerly, but lifting mechanisms will not be in place required for shower and thunderstorm activity which will lead to this period being defined by hot and dry conditions statewide. High temperatures into the weekend and early next week will make a run at the triple-digits and heat products may be warranted over this period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA will continue to diminish and eventually dissipate with the loss of afternoon heating across the state this evening. A look at recent CAMs and BUFKIT soundings shows ceilings dropping tonight with MVFR ceilings moving in east to west across all terminals around midnight. Low ceilings will remain through the morning hours, then lift to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are again possible late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon due to upper low meander through east Arkansas. Main aviation impacts will be gusty thunderstorm winds, frequent lightning, and a brief drop to MVFR for a short duration. All SHRA and TSRA activity will again dissipate around sunset Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 71 86 71 88 / 70 70 30 60 Camden AR 69 85 69 91 / 50 70 20 0 Harrison AR 70 84 69 85 / 30 60 30 60 Hot Springs AR 71 85 70 90 / 60 60 20 10 Little Rock AR 72 85 71 90 / 70 70 20 10 Monticello AR 71 86 71 91 / 70 70 10 0 Mount Ida AR 70 84 68 88 / 60 70 20 10 Mountain Home AR 70 84 70 86 / 40 70 20 50 Newport AR 72 87 72 89 / 70 60 20 50 Pine Bluff AR 70 85 70 90 / 70 70 20 10 Russellville AR 72 87 71 90 / 60 80 20 20 Searcy AR 71 86 70 90 / 70 70 20 20 Stuttgart AR 72 85 72 90 / 60 70 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.