textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Scattered PM showers are possible over the next couple days; Rainfall should not amount to much in any particular location

- Heat Advisories are in effect for entire CWA through Sunday evening

- Upper level ridge ensures hot/dry wx persists the next several days

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Summer-like weather pattern will continue across AR beneath an elongated and expansive upper ridge. This persistent ridge has brought above average temps and below average precip to many locations over the past three to six weeks. There are some winners in regards to August monthly rainfall, but that does not speak for the majority of the state which ended up at varying degrees of below average monthly and seasonal (meteorological summer) totals.

The upper ridge is anticipated to strengthen heading through this weekend which should increase large scale forcing for subsidence over the Srn MS Valley. This will work to suppress widespread PoP development through middle portion of next week. As the ridge intensifies, temps are expected to climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Given this, a Heat Advisory is now in effect through Sunday evening for the entire Little Rock county warning area where heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected. A brief reprieve from heat indices is looking more likely Monday and Tuesday with the arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary. Temps may not be much cooler behind this front but dew pts should be lower resulting in lower overall heat indices. Relief should be temporary though as winds switch back to the S/SW on Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Despite unfavorable atmospheric conditions, a few scattered showers/storms can not be ruled out across AR this afternoon and early evening as weak upper level energy moves E to W around the Srn periphery of the ridge. Scattered showers/storms will be possible once again on Sunday afternoon/evening associated with backdoor cold front pushing into the state from the OH River Valley but keep in mind that the large scale pattern will work to inhibit widespread organized convection. Precip chances are hovering right around 20% for both Saturday and Sunday with little to no beneficial rainfall expected in an particular location. Long range ensemble guidance is now shifting towards a potential weakening/retrograding of the ridge during the Thursday/Friday time frame which could open the door for weather systems to move towards the state. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to build Ewrd and amplify over the region with rain chances quickly dwindling.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy all but 3 of AR's 75 counties. These three counties were concentrated to N-Cntrl/Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in the last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the forecast, decreasing soil moisture and plant moisture will worsen drought conditions and increase the statewide wildfire threat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-clouds are expected to develop today with afternoon scattered SHRA possible but due to low confidence in coverage and location, opted to not include precip mention at any terminals. Winds should be Erly at around 10 kts or less this afternoon. Any precip that develops should diminish near or just after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 103 77 104 71 / 20 10 20 0 Camden AR 102 73 102 73 / 20 10 20 20 Harrison AR 101 75 100 70 / 20 20 20 10 Hot Springs AR 102 76 103 75 / 20 0 20 20 Little Rock AR 99 79 100 75 / 10 0 20 10 Monticello AR 98 76 99 75 / 20 0 20 20 Mount Ida AR 102 73 103 73 / 20 20 20 20 Mountain Home AR 102 74 102 70 / 20 20 10 0 Newport AR 102 77 102 72 / 10 10 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 99 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 20 Russellville AR 103 76 104 75 / 20 10 20 10 Searcy AR 102 76 103 72 / 20 10 20 0 Stuttgart AR 101 77 102 74 / 10 10 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024- 025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340- 341.