textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms forecast this afternoon/evening...with damaging winds the primary threat. Isolated large hail and locally heavy rainfall may also be possible

-Some lingering chances for showers/thunderstorms may persist into Thursday...but less widespread than expected this Wednesday

-Slightly cooler/drier air arrives by Friday into Saturday

-Upper ridge expands back over the region by early next week...with hot and humid conditions returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The center of the upper ridge remains west of the state this morning...centered over the 4-Corners region of the CONUS...placing AR in NW flow aloft. This continues to allow for some weak upper waves to drop SE over the state...one of which will pass overhead through this evening. Additional isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA will become possible into this evening. Initially...there could be some patchy SHRA early this morning...with an isolated TSRA possible. The SVR threat with this morning activity should remain low. However...the threat for seeing SVR convection does increase this afternoon/evening.

An upper disturbance will approach from the NW this afternoon/evening...with chances for convection increasing over AR ahead of this wave. There will be enough instability that a few of these TSRA could become strong to SVR...with damaging wind gusts the primary threat expected. Some isolated large hail may also be seen...along with some locally heavy rainfall.

Chances for convection decreases late tonight into Thu morning...though there could be some lingering SHRA/TSRA over SRN sections after midnight Thu morning. Another upper disturbance will drop SE across the region on Thu...which will allow for a new front to drop south through the state by Fri. There could be some lingering convection Thu...but coverage should be a bit more limited on Thu/Thu night with the front.

Drier air will filter into the state Fri into the weekend behind this front...with some relief from the hot/humid conditions. However...the upper ridge to the west will begin expanding back east by late this weekend into next week. This ridge may eventually settle over the Mid-South region by late in the forecast. Temps may return to the 90s to around 100 for highs...and heat index values may exceed 105 for a larger portion of the area by early next week. Chances for rainfall will also decrease.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Per latest CAM type guidance, the most likely evolution of convection this afternoon is concentrated development across west central sections of the forecast area, then an increase in coverage to the southeast through 02z. Scattered areas of MVFR ceilings are expected between 09-15z across the southeast portion of the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 72 97 69 / 40 40 20 10 Camden AR 97 71 96 70 / 20 50 20 10 Harrison AR 90 68 91 65 / 50 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 97 72 97 71 / 40 40 10 10 Little Rock AR 96 73 97 72 / 30 40 10 10 Monticello AR 96 72 95 71 / 20 60 20 20 Mount Ida AR 97 70 96 68 / 30 30 20 20 Mountain Home AR 90 69 93 66 / 60 20 0 0 Newport AR 92 73 95 70 / 60 40 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 95 72 94 70 / 20 50 10 10 Russellville AR 96 72 97 71 / 40 20 20 10 Searcy AR 93 72 95 70 / 30 30 20 10 Stuttgart AR 95 73 95 72 / 20 30 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.