textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

-Record setting warmth continuing into this weekend

-Rain chances increasing late weekend, with much colder temperatures settling into the region through early next week

-Temperatures moderating towards normal levels by the middle of next week.

-Temperatures will hover at or just below normal for beginning of the new year.

UPDATE

Issued at 1242 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Have updated forecast early this Sat afternoon to include a Wind Adv for Sun/Sun evening...as well as adjust afternoon highs this Sat down a bit due to persistent fog/clouds. Winds on Sun ahead and behind the cold front will likely be in the 20-30 mph range at times...with gusts 40 to 50 mph possible. May expand to more areas with this evening update or morning forecast issuance Sun.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Satellite early this shows low stratus moving north out of Louisiana into Arkansas and fog developing over parts of central and southern Arkansas early this morning. Fog should largely remain patchy across those areas will dissipate around mid morning. Additional fog develop is likely over parts of northeast Arkansas and will also dissipate by mid morning. South to southwest winds will remain light today, but some isolated gusts up to 15-20 mph possible during the day across the state.

By Sunday, the aforementioned pattern change will begin to commence as high pressure over the mid south will slide off to the east and a cold front dives southeast out of the central Plains toward Arkansas. Latest deterministic guidance shows the cold front diving southeast through the state with the GFS solution a bit faster with the progression of the front. Ahead of the front, the tighter pressure gradient will bring south to southwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph on Sunday.

Along with the breezy conditions on Sunday, an uptick in shower and a few thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front due to ample lift with the boundary and 60 degree dewpoints Sunday afternoon and night. Severe weather probabilities with the front are slim, but not zero. SREF guidance for Sunday afternoon and evening shows the probability of > 500 J/kg of CAPE in the 25-30% range across parts of central and northern Arkansas with percentages as high as 40 to 50% over parts of far northeast Arkansas into the Missouri bootheel. A look at surface to 500mb bulk shear per the 00z GFS and ECMWF solutions shows 50-60 kts on Sunday afternoon and evening.

The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging winds as the tornado risk will largely be up in the Missouri Bootheel and points north as highlighted in SPC's Day 2 Marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon and evening, The risk area within the CWA is across parts of central, north, northeast and eastern Arkansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Models continue to be in good agreement in regards to rainfall amounts up to half inch with locally higher amounts possible with little to no risk for flooding due to dry soils over much of the state.

Behind the front, much colder air will filter into the state, but both the GFS and ECMWF solutions show any wintry precipitation that does occur would be very short in duration. No impacts are expected as shallow soil temperatures are in the 50s across the state. As is typical most of the time in Arkansas weather, the deeper moisture will exit the area before the coldest air arrives.

High temperatures on Monday into Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s, but the cold blast of air will be short in duration as temperatures by mid week into the latter part of week will moderate to hover around normal values due to westerly flow on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will veer to the southwest by Friday as a cold front approaches the state with temperatures generally closer to normal values for high temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR CIGS will return to the central and southern terminals and then will remain for the majority of the period. Low clouds will eventually make their way into the north as a strong cold front approaches from the NW. Some precipitation will accompany this boundary with a wind shift to the NW following its passage. Gusty S/SW winds will increase as the boundary approaches with a shift to the NW after the FROPA with winds remaining gusty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 64 74 27 32 / 0 50 30 0 Camden AR 62 76 32 40 / 0 20 60 0 Harrison AR 65 74 21 28 / 0 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 63 72 30 35 / 0 40 30 0 Little Rock AR 64 74 32 36 / 0 40 40 0 Monticello AR 65 78 35 40 / 0 10 70 0 Mount Ida AR 64 74 29 35 / 0 40 20 0 Mountain Home AR 63 74 22 30 / 0 40 10 0 Newport AR 65 72 29 35 / 0 50 50 0 Pine Bluff AR 63 76 33 38 / 0 10 60 0 Russellville AR 63 76 29 35 / 10 40 10 0 Searcy AR 62 73 28 34 / 0 40 50 0 Stuttgart AR 64 73 32 36 / 0 20 60 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for ARZ004>007-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>045-047-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.