textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Several high impact weather events, perhaps historic, will affect the forecast area through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

18z KLZK upper air observation indicates a 'loaded gun' type sounding. MUCape of > 4000kg is indicated, with a 0-3km (supercell discriminator) of > 275 m2/s2.

After convective inhibition erodes this afternoon, all parameters derived from this sounding support supercell development, with support for long track, significant or greater tornadoes. Several brief supercells already have been noted this afternoon. Near term forecasts will occupied on this severe weather event, which will last throughout the evening hours, as a cold front moves east into the forecast area.

This cold frontal boundary that will focus this severe weather event will stall across the forecast area on Thursday. This feature will become nearly stationary, as it becomes parallel to the southwesterly upper level flow. The front will likely wobble due to convective outflow(s), but much of the area will receive excessive rainfall through Saturday, as several waves in the southwest flow interacts with the boundary. The rainfall will produce not only a flash flooding threat, but a river flooding threat as well.

Rainfall will finally come to an end late Saturday and early Sunday.

Near to below normal temperatures will prevail Sunday through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Expect light and variable surface winds to begin the forecast period across all sites. CIGS and VSBY will degrade to as low as by late Thursday morning as the cloud deck will lower to MVFR and eventually IFR conditions as a boundary is expected to stall across Arkansas. Additionally, expect showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the forecast period across all sites. Surface winds will gust in excess of 24 knots across all terminals by late Thursday morning before losing their gusting condition late Thursday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 68 56 81 62 / 90 90 100 90 Camden AR 80 67 85 68 / 90 80 80 70 Harrison AR 62 52 72 53 / 80 60 100 100 Hot Springs AR 70 61 80 64 / 100 90 100 90 Little Rock AR 74 62 84 67 / 100 90 90 90 Monticello AR 83 71 86 71 / 80 60 70 50 Mount Ida AR 70 60 79 62 / 100 90 100 90 Mountain Home AR 64 53 74 56 / 90 70 100 100 Newport AR 68 59 81 66 / 100 90 90 80 Pine Bluff AR 78 66 85 70 / 90 80 80 70 Russellville AR 70 58 80 61 / 90 80 100 100 Searcy AR 73 58 84 65 / 90 90 90 80 Stuttgart AR 75 66 84 71 / 90 90 80 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024- 025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340- 341.