textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-Rain chances increasing into Monday with a front dropping south into the state

-Drier/warmer conditions on Tuesday as front lifts back north of the state

-The threat for areas of heavy rainfall increasing as a more persistent wet pattern looks to be setting up for portions of the state for the middle to latter part of this week

-Strong/SVR convection may also become a threat to keep an eye on during the middle part of this week and into the weekend depending on how the pattern evolves

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Some isolated to scattered convection was noted across portions of the area on Sat evening...with most recent activity limited to SWRN sections early this Sun morning as a weak upper wave passed SE over this area. A cold front was just started to drop south into the state from MO...which should gradually drop south/SW into the state through this afternoon. Latest guidance suggests this front will slow/stall somewhere over central sections of the state by early this Sun afternoon...say from near FSM to LIT to south of MEM. A new upper wave looks to move ESE along/north of this front this afternoon into tonight...with increasing POPs forecast along/north of the SFC boundary through Mon morning.

The SFC front will lift north late Mon and especially for Tue as flow aloft transitions form NWRLY into a more SWRLY pattern over the region. This will bring decrease POPs into Tue...as well as allowing for warming conditions and increasing moisture levels. This SWRLY upper flow pattern looks to become more persistent for several days through much of this week into the weekend.

With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week.

The first wave of organized precip may start on Wed as an upper shortwave lifts NE from OK into MO...with a SFC front dropping SE into NWRN sections of AR before stalling. SHRA/TSRA will become likely along/ahead of this front Wed through Thu. Some areas of heavy rainfall may be seen...along with maybe a few strong/SVR TSRA. Where the best chances for convection and widespread rainfall will be are somewhat uncertain at this time as there is uncertainty in where the SFC front will slow/stall...and how strong the upper shortwave will be as it lifts NE over the region. This will also dictate how organized any strong/SVR convection may be and what areas will be impacted.

Additional rounds of convection look possible later in the week into next weekend as more upper disturbances pass over the region and the SFC boundary moves around. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may end up...and timing of individual waves late next week. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN half of the state. Will continue to see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed to see where the heaviest rainfall will occur...and if/when any organized strong/SVR convection may be seen.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A new front will drop southwest into the state into this Sun afternoon...with some SHRA returning to the forecast for many sites this afternoon through tonight. Flight conditions may drop to MVFR levels or lower by late in the forecast for NRN terminals...though VFR conditions may remain dominant further south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 62 46 66 52 / 50 70 50 0 Camden AR 82 54 80 56 / 10 10 10 0 Harrison AR 62 44 68 53 / 80 80 40 10 Hot Springs AR 78 53 77 56 / 30 30 20 0 Little Rock AR 72 52 74 56 / 40 40 20 0 Monticello AR 82 56 79 58 / 10 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 77 54 77 56 / 30 40 20 0 Mountain Home AR 62 43 64 50 / 70 80 50 10 Newport AR 64 48 67 54 / 40 60 50 10 Pine Bluff AR 78 54 77 57 / 20 10 10 0 Russellville AR 70 50 74 54 / 50 50 20 0 Searcy AR 67 48 71 52 / 40 50 40 0 Stuttgart AR 72 53 74 57 / 30 30 20 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.