textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

-Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial beginning to Summer; thus if you find yourself outdoors and thunder roars, immediately seek shelter indoors as isolated thunderstorms will be possible

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast off and on through much of next week

-Threat for severe weather remains low...but, locally heavy rainfall possible over the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The unsettled weather pattern continues across the state of Arkansas with a series of frontal boundaries that will remain draped across the state or in close proximity to the state allowing for elevated POP chances statewide over the duration of the forecast period in tandem with an upper lvl low that becomes stalled through the middle portion of the upcoming workweek.

A large portion of Arkansas will continue to see increased chances for rain and occasional thunderstorms. A reminder as Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial beginning to Summer, if thunder roars, go indoors!

Despite the unsettled weather pattern, most days will not be a washout over the forecast period. The latest lower-end or underachieving NBM guidance has rain totals of 0.50 to 0.75 inches across northern Arkansas over the next week, into central Arkansas those values increase between 1.5 to 2 inches, and into southern Arkansas total rainfall values on the lower end of NBM guidance is between 1.5 to 2 inches as well.

Conversely, the higher-end or overperforming NBM guidance has rainfall totals between 1.25 and 1.75 inches across northern Arkansas over the next week, into central Arkansas those values increase between 2.5 and 3 inches, and into southern Arkansas total rainfall values on the higher end of NBM guidance is between 2.5 to 3 inches as well.

Latest deterministic forecast guidance is trending a little higher than the mean NBM total rainfall: northern Arkansas between 0.75 and 1.25 inches of total rainfall, central Arkansas between 1.5 and 2.25 inches of total rainfall, and across southern Arkansas between 1.75 and 3 inches of total rainfall.

It is important to mention that this total rainfall will be dispersed over a week long period; however, a few locations may exceed their projected total rainfall if their location experiences rain that trains over the same location which will lead to higher values and possible flash flooding, especially in flood prone areas.

Rain chances will begin to lower into the upcoming weekend as backdoor cold front will move into Arkansas and bring a drier airmass to the state.

Temperatures over the forecast period will remain near normal for this time of the year across the Natural State.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours across the state. Isolated showers across parts of eastern, southeast, and northeast Arkansas will persist until around sunset. Elected to place VCSH at KPBF and KLLQ as those terminals are the most likely to be impacted this afternoon. HREF and BUFKIT shows ceilings will lower to MVFR across all terminals with IFR conditions overnight through the morning hours across parts of south and southeast Arkansas. Ceilings will gradually lift but may not lift to VFR until after the TAF period. Light N/NE winds will veer to the east on Memorial day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 62 81 64 79 / 10 20 50 60 Camden AR 63 83 64 84 / 10 30 40 50 Harrison AR 58 80 61 77 / 0 10 20 70 Hot Springs AR 63 82 64 82 / 10 20 40 60 Little Rock AR 63 81 64 81 / 10 20 40 50 Monticello AR 65 82 65 83 / 20 40 50 60 Mount Ida AR 62 82 64 81 / 10 20 30 60 Mountain Home AR 59 81 61 77 / 0 0 30 70 Newport AR 63 82 65 82 / 10 30 50 70 Pine Bluff AR 65 81 65 83 / 10 30 50 60 Russellville AR 63 83 65 81 / 10 20 30 60 Searcy AR 62 81 63 81 / 10 20 40 60 Stuttgart AR 66 81 67 82 / 10 30 50 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.