textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Warm and humid through the weekend and early next week

-Small chances for showers/thunderstorms into Sunday

-More unsettled pattern next week...with some potential for areas of heavy rainfall

-Severe threat may also develop next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this Fri morning...with some light SRLY winds already noted. These SRLY winds will increase into this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Temps will warm further from Thu as a result...even as some increased cloud cover develops. This increased cloud cover will be result of a weak upper wave passing over NRN sections of the state into the afternoon hrs. This upper wave may also trigger some isolated/widely scattered convection...with some low end POPs mentioned again today as a result over WRN/NRN sections.

A similar situation may occur again for Sat as well...with SRLY SFC flow continuing...and a weak upper wave passing over the AR/MO border before the midday timeframe. Flow aloft will increase from the SW on Sun...with SRLY/SERLY SFC flow increasing further. Most of the upper energy looks to remain west of AR on Sun into Sun night...so have dropped POPs to just slight chance across WRN sections with no significant forcing mechanisms expected.

A more unsettled pattern will exist for the work week next week. Upper level energy will attempt to move close to AR starting Mon...but the cold front will hold off until mainly Tue and Wed. This front will drop south into the state slowing as it drops south and becomes parallel to the upper flow. Additional upper waves look to pass overhead...keeping chances for convection in the forecast nearly every day next week. While this setup tends to result in areas of heavy rainfall with multiple rounds of convection possible...uncertainty does exist on how far SE the front drops...and the upper energy moves. Given the ongoing drought conditions...a bit hesitant to get into the details regarding how much rainfall may occur. This will be ironed out over the next few days...and hopefully many areas can see additional beneficial rainfall.

Will also need to at least mention some potential for seeing strong to SVR convection with the more active pattern as well. Given the mid/late May time-frame...deep moisture return...and stout upper level flow...a threat for seeing SVR convection may exist. However...details on timing of upper waves and other uncertainties will need figured out in the coming days on any SVR threat potential next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Expect VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast period from early Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. A couple period of VCSH will be present on Friday afternoon into Friday evening and again during the day on Saturday for the sites of KHRO and KBPK. Additionally, the sites of KHRO and KBPK will experience low level wind shear early Saturday morning through later Saturday morning. Surface wind gusts will be in excess of 20 knots at most terminals for the first few hours of the forecast period on Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 87 69 88 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 70 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 70 85 67 86 / 30 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 71 86 68 86 / 10 10 0 10 Little Rock AR 71 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 72 86 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 72 85 70 85 / 20 10 0 10 Mountain Home AR 70 86 67 87 / 20 20 0 0 Newport AR 72 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 86 67 87 / 0 10 0 10 Russellville AR 71 87 68 87 / 20 0 0 10 Searcy AR 70 87 66 88 / 0 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 73 86 68 88 / 0 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.