textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

-A dry cold front is expected to move across Arkansas from northwest to southeast tonight into early Friday

-The airmass behind front will be cold leading to the possibility of frost and potentially freeze products needed for portions of the state on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings.

-New warming trend begins early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Satellite early this afternoon shows mostly clear skies across the entire state. Temperatures this hour are in the 70s across Arkansas. As we head into the latter part of the afternoon, the cold front will continue to move east but most areas will likely be dry. A look at several runs of CAMs has shown the possibility of isolated showers across the western one third of the state late this afternoon into the evening. A look at some hi-res short term models shows some low stratus will move south out of Missouri around midnight into northern Arkansas.

Light and variable winds ahead of the front will veer to the north/northeast but remain light. The low clouds behind the front will move into parts of central Arkansas by sunrise but likely not make it further south of central Arkansas on Friday morning. The upper trough/cold front will push out of Arkansas around midday on Friday into the Ohio valley. High pressure will built into the state from the central Plains, shunning appreciable moisture to along the Gulf coast.

As we head into the weekend, high pressure across the central Plains will move south into the state Saturday into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will hove around normal for early November across the state. By Monday, high pressure will move into the mid south and then into the southeast allowing winds to switch to south to southwest. The shift in winds will allow temperatures to warm into upper 60s to lower 70s, which is roughly 5 to 8 degrees above normal for afternoon highs in early to mid November. With little to no rainfall expected beyond the chance later today, drought conditions will continue.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through a majority of the forecast TAF cycle across Arkansas. A cold front will enter the state later this afternoon bringing some mid level cloudiness and possibly an isolated shower or two to parts of western and southwestern Arkansas late afternoon into the overnight hours. Expect the front through the middle of the state around midnight. Behind the front low stratus is expected to move south out of Missouri impacting northernly terminals. At this time, confidence is not high enough to introduce MVFR ceilings after 06z but could be included in feature forecast packages. Otherwise, light and variable winds ahead of the boundary, then light north to northeast winds behind the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 64 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 46 72 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 44 59 35 58 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 48 70 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 51 69 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 48 70 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 45 69 34 64 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 44 59 35 57 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 47 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 46 68 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 47 68 38 63 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 47 66 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 49 68 40 60 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.