textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

-Additional chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist through at least Monday evening over portions of the state.

-Isolated excessive rainfall amounts of two to three inches (high- end amounts near three to four inches) will be possible Sunday evening and through the overnight period.

-Hazardous heat conditions are expected through the coming work week, with area heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Recent radar imgry showed early Sat evng convection waning over much of the FA w/ MRMS QPE suggesting areas of 2 to 4 or more inches of rainfall fell across areas of Wrn AR. Thru the day Sun, a similar fcst is expected for at least the Nrn half of the state. Modest low- lvl Srly flow wl drive Gulf moisture poleward, w/ Td's in the low to mid 70s extending over much of the region by Sun aftn. Aloft, a shortwave trof is progged to lift NEwrd acrs the Ozark Plateau thru the aftn, w/ subtle H500 height falls driving modest instability, characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Sufficient buoyancy overspread by effective bulk shear of 30 knots wl support another round of isolated severe weather chances for the Nrn half of the state. All severe hazards wl be possible Sun aftn, though damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes wl be the main concerns.

In addition to any severe weather, area-wide PWAT values near or greater than two inches wl yield very efficient rainfall rates of two to three inches per hour w/ any convective activity. In addition to anomalous column moisture, a SWrly H850 LLJ of 20 to 30 kts is progged acrs Wrn AR overnight Sun night, and wl aid in driving excessive rainfall and flash flooding potential. 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggest additional heavy rainfall swaths greater than two inches thru Mon mrng wl be possible acrs portions of the Boston Mountains to Nrn AR, e.g., probabilistic QPF > 2" around 50 to 70%. Higher end scenarios, e.g., 90th percentile, suggest local amounts near three to four or more inches of rainfall could be possible, particularly where the greatest training occurs.

By Mon, the aforementioned upper shortwave wl be moving acrs the Ohio River Valley, w/ modest NWrly flow positioned acrs the Mid- South and Ozark Plateau. Modest instability characterized by MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg wl be overlaid by ample NWrly shear of 30 knots. The projected pattern favors some MCS potential acrs at least portions of NErn AR, and deterministic mass field solns are indicative of progressive cold pools moving thru the FA Mon aftn to evng. For now, the severe threat remains low impact, w/ strong to briefly damaging winds the main possible hazards on Mon.

Tues and thru the remainder of the fcst PD, H500 flow wl briefly transition to shortwave ridging acrs the Srn Cntrl US, bcmg more zonal by mid to late week. Precip chances wl diminish acrs the FA, w/ daily high temps trending towards the low to mid 90s at most locations. Antecedent humidity levels wl contribute to the first week of hazardous heat of the summer acrs the FA, w/ local heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees, and WBG temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. Of more concern wl be the lack of overnight relief, as current low temp fcst values suggest widespread mid to upper 70s fm Tues to Thurs nights.

Towards the end of the work week, there is some signal for returning rain chances based on the progression of a longwave trof set to move thru the Cntrl to High Plains, though discrepancies still exist amongst the latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns. Nevertheless, the presence of at least strong Wrly flow and subtle troughing remains present amongst most global ensemble solns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

All sites will begin the forecast period in VFR flight category just after midnight. A complex of decaying storms are expected to move into Arkansas from Missouri and track south-southeastward across the state during the early morning hours of Monday near sunrise and continue track through the state throughout the day. CIGS will lower briefly in advance of this activity to MVFR flight category. TEMPO groups have been utilized where the storms will be strongest and may drop VSBY to IFR flight category and winds may gusts in excess of 35 knots. Storms will approach the central and southeastern terminals by midday on Monday. CIGS and VSBY will improve to VFR flight category by Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the activity completely clears the state

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 87 72 88 74 / 80 70 30 10 Camden AR 88 73 92 74 / 80 20 10 0 Harrison AR 81 70 86 73 / 90 60 70 0 Hot Springs AR 88 73 89 75 / 90 50 10 10 Little Rock AR 91 73 90 75 / 90 50 10 10 Monticello AR 87 75 91 75 / 80 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 83 73 88 74 / 80 30 10 0 Mountain Home AR 84 69 85 72 / 90 80 60 10 Newport AR 88 73 90 75 / 90 60 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 87 74 90 75 / 80 30 10 10 Russellville AR 89 73 89 75 / 70 60 20 0 Searcy AR 89 72 90 74 / 90 70 10 10 Stuttgart AR 88 75 90 76 / 70 40 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ARZ004-103-112-113-121- 203-212-213-221-313.