textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist through this weekend.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the forecast period with drought conditions persisting.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels will contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Once again, no significant changes to note w/ the new fcst update... Latest objective analysis depicted highly amplified H500 flow acrs the CONUS, w/ persistent deep troughing over the Wrn US and Sierra Nevada, and ridging acrs the Cntrl US. This persistent ridging wl continue to drive warm and settled weather for the region into next week, w/ daily high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and unfortunately, no appreciable rainfall for the next seven days.

Daily fire danger will persist, fostered by antecedent drought conditions, a lack of forecast rainfall, and drying ground fuels (noted by fcst ERC values >90th percentile over portions of Srn AR).

Early next week, the aforementioned west coast trof wl slowly translate Ewrd over the Four Corners and Cont Divide by Mon, weakening as it does so. Locally, the center of the upper level high wl also shift Ewrd, positioning SWrly H500 flow acrs the Srn Great Plains. At most, this may drive some increasing low-level cloud cover over the FA thru the early portion of next week, and bring some slightly cooler temperatures.

Late next week, there are considerable differences amongst global guidance solns, particularly w/ the evolution of a Pacific NW shortwave trof, set to come ashore on Mon, and progress Ewrd over the Cntrl Plains by mid to late week. At the sfc, a cdfrnt is progged to move into the Srn US late in the week, but there is low confidence on the timing and evolution of this feature, and how much precip wl be possible... if any. For now, base blended guidance reflects low chance PoPs/QPF for portions of the state by Fri, but this is lkly to change over the next few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR condns wl prevail thru the PD, w/ light overnight winds becoming E-SErly thru the day Fri. No other sig impacts are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 84 48 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 78 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 82 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 82 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 82 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 82 47 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 77 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 81 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 82 49 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 81 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 81 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 82 50 82 51 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.