textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast across the southern half of Arkansas on Sunday.

-In the wake of a cold front moving from north to south across Arkansas during the early morning hours on Sunday will result in overall temperatures to be normal to a few degrees below normal for this time of year beginning on Sunday and lasting into the middle of the upcoming workweek.

-Temperatures are anticipated to reach values once again above normal for this time of the year by late workweek and into next weekend. A few locations will make a run at the century mark over this period for afternoon high temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

KEY MESSAGES/DISCUSSION:

KEY MESSAGES:

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast across the southern half of Arkansas on Sunday.

-In the wake of a cold front moving from north to south across Arkansas during the early morning hours on Sunday will result in overall temperatures to be normal to a few degrees below normal for this time of year beginning on Sunday and lasting into the middle of the upcoming workweek.

-Temperatures are anticipated to reach values once again above normal for this time of the year by late into the workweek and next weekend. A few locations will make a run at the century mark over this period for afternoon high temperatures.

DISCUSSION:

In the upper lvls, a center of high pressure fixated over the Four Corners region of the CONUS will begin to transition over the Northern Plains and Mid-West regions of the CONUS. Consequently, from the placement of the elongated region of the upper lvl high pressure will result in an upper lvl low pressure center to retrograde westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region of the CONUS to over Texas transitioning into the middle of the upcoming workweek. Into later portions of the workweek and next weekend, the overall upper lvl ridge begins to amplify over a broad region of the Western and Central regions of the CONUS, including over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a cold front is progged to be slowly transitioning from central Arkansas into southern Arkansas and is anticipated to become a stationary boundary across southern Arkansas. Latest CAMS and evolution of guidance indicates a Marginal Risk for severe weather across southern Arkansas with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. A few possible storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the placement of this boundary on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Instability and low-level lapse rate are not anticipated to be over impressive, but enough for a few instances of damaging wind gusts across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Into Monday, this boundary will push southward into northern Louisiana, but remain in close enough proximity to keep decent POP chances across southern Arkansas for Monday afternoon. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, this boundary will attempt to move slowly northward as a warm front and near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, thus afternoon POP chances will be elevated across much of Arkansas, but confidence remains low in boundary placement. Into the later portion of the workweek and next weekend, the boundary will wash out and a region of sfc high pressure will be present across the region which will result in near zero to zero POP chances along with temperatures which will notably tick higher than normal by a few degrees for mid July. A few locations across Arkansas will make a run at the century mark for high temperatures and heat products will likely be warranted over this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Expect VFR conditions across the majority of the state of Arkansas between the forecast period of early Sunday morning and early Monday morning. The remnants of rain and storms continue to impact parts of central and southern Arkansas at the beginning of the period. VCTS has been left within FM groups to outline this concern. However, the overall trend of development across the state early Sunday morning is downward. VSBY at the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK may lower into MVFR flight category; however most sites will experience VSBY and CIGS which remain in VFR flight category over the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 90 71 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 Camden AR 90 71 90 70 / 60 50 30 10 Harrison AR 88 68 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 90 72 91 71 / 60 20 20 0 Little Rock AR 90 73 90 72 / 30 0 10 0 Monticello AR 90 72 90 71 / 40 30 20 10 Mount Ida AR 88 71 89 70 / 70 30 20 0 Mountain Home AR 88 69 88 67 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 89 71 90 71 / 40 10 10 0 Russellville AR 91 73 92 72 / 20 10 10 0 Searcy AR 90 71 91 70 / 0 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 89 73 90 72 / 20 0 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.