textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is forecast across the southern half of Arkansas this afternoon/evening

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected in the coming days behind cool front today...with chances for rainfall off and on into Wednesday

-Hotter conditions expected by later this week as an upper level ridge expands back over the region

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

In the upper lvls, a center of high pressure fixated over the Four Corners region of the CONUS will begin to transition over the Northern Plains and Mid-West regions of the CONUS. Consequently, from the placement of the elongated region of the upper lvl high pressure will result in an upper lvl low pressure center to retrograde westward from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region of the CONUS to over Texas transitioning into the middle of the upcoming workweek. Into later portions of the workweek and next weekend, the overall upper lvl ridge begins to amplify over a broad region of the Western and Central regions of the CONUS, including over Arkansas.

At the sfc, a cold front is progged to be slowly transitioning from central Arkansas into southern Arkansas and is anticipated to become a stationary boundary across southern Arkansas. Latest CAMS and evolution of guidance indicates a Marginal Risk for severe weather across southern Arkansas with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. A few possible storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the placement of this boundary on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Instability and low-level lapse rate are not anticipated to be over impressive, but enough for a few instances of damaging wind gusts across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Into Monday, this boundary will push southward into northern Louisiana, but remain in close enough proximity to keep decent POP chances across southern Arkansas for Monday afternoon. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, this boundary will attempt to move slowly northward as a warm front and near the Arkansas/Louisiana border, thus afternoon POP chances will be elevated across much of Arkansas, but confidence remains low in boundary placement. Into the later portion of the workweek and next weekend, the boundary will wash out and a region of sfc high pressure will be present across the region which will result in near zero to zero POP chances along with temperatures which will notably tick higher than normal by a few degrees for mid July. A few locations across Arkansas will make a run at the century mark for high temperatures and heat products will likely be warranted over this period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Chances for convection will remain possible across central and mainly SRN sections of the state into this evening. Central and NRN sections should remain mainly dry. Some patchy MVFR conditions may linger into the early afternoon hrs from low CIGs...then again on Mon morning with some patchy fog. Otherwise...dominant VFR conditions are expected to persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 88 71 89 69 / 10 10 0 10 Camden AR 87 71 90 70 / 40 40 10 10 Harrison AR 87 68 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 88 72 90 71 / 30 10 10 10 Little Rock AR 88 73 90 71 / 10 10 10 0 Monticello AR 88 72 90 71 / 30 30 10 10 Mount Ida AR 86 70 89 70 / 40 10 10 10 Mountain Home AR 87 69 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 88 72 89 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 71 89 70 / 30 10 10 0 Russellville AR 91 73 92 71 / 10 0 10 10 Searcy AR 88 71 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 88 73 89 72 / 10 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.