textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

-Early this morning, a small window will exist for a frost and possible freeze across north-central, northwestern, and portions of west-central Arkansas

-An overall quiet weather pattern will be in place through Saturday across the state

-A quick moving cold front will move across the state on Sunday bringing rain a few possible thunderstorms to the state

-Early Monday and Tuesday mornings will both offer a better chance for a widespread frost and freeze across most of the state of Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

THURSDAY (TODAY)/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, the H500 pattern will begin northwesterly over Arkansas as a positively-tilted trof axis moves over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS and is progged to move over the New England region of the CONUS. The flow pattern over Arkansas by late week will be nearly zonal over the state as the trof feature continues well east of the region. At the sfc, in the wake of the cold front which moved across the state during the day on Wednesday, tranquil weather conditions will be noted over this period. The drier and cooler airmass will be felt this morning as few locations across northern and western Arkansas may experience a frost or even freeze in a few locations. However, surface winds will shift across the state today and become established out of the south to south- southwest across the CWA which will assist in a warming trend for temperatures going into Friday and Saturday.

SUNDAY:

In the upper lvls, a H500 trof begins to dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front lifts northward into Mid-West and Ohio River Valley regions of the CONUS with a sfc low pressure center positioned in the vicinity of northeastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri. 00Z guidance from multiple models in the medium-range have hinted at the possibility of a broad warm sector opening over portions of central and southern Arkansas with SBCAPE values between 1,000 and 1,500 J/kg and 0-3km bulk shear around 40 knots. However, the timing of the cold front to the northwest of the state will be critical in the potential for severe weather as models have fluctuated the past few runs on timing. An afternoon/early evening event with the cold front remaining off to the northwest would favor a possible severe weather setup, but if the cold front moves through quicker than anticipated, then instability, moisture, and a lifting mechanism would be lowered significantly.

Additionally, the cold front will be quick moving with the possibility of a light rain and snow mix which may be present across parts of northern, central, and eastern Arkansas as the moisture is able to be present for a few hours in wake of the cold front on Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday, but no accumulations would be anticipated and this remains a low confidence solution given the speed of the cold front.

MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a pronounced upper level ridge will be noted over the Southwestern region of the CONUS. In response over Arkansas, northwesterly flow will once again be present. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region behind the cold front leading to a period of quiet weather overall. The main story will be during the early morning hours on both Monday and Tuesday morning when Freeze and Frost products will likely be needed across a large portion of the state as the air mass behind the steep cold front will bring a shot of colder temperatures which will stick around on both Monday and Tuesday before temperatures begin to improve overall to near normal values on Wednesday. It is noted that any vegetation planted or left outdoors will need to be protected or moved indoors (if able) or will be likely be damaged or killed due to the cold temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals over the forecast period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning. In the wake of the cold front which moved across Arkansas during the day on Wednesday, gusty surface winds in excess of 25 knots are expected for the first several hours of the forecast period across most TAF sites through Thursday evening. Low level wind shear will be noted at the end of the forecast period on Thursday evening through the end of the forecast period across the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 60 43 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 61 39 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 61 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 61 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 59 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 59 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 63 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 57 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 63 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 58 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 57 42 68 47 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.