textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across the entire state of Arkansas for storms which are expected to impact the state between this early afternoon into the late evening.

-The main hazards with storms which become severe will be damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail.

-High temperatures across most of central and southern Arkansas will manage to reach and/or eclipse the century mark before the frontal boundary and associated scattered storms move into Arkansas.

-Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern Arkansas as heat index values will manage to reach between 105 and 109 for a period of several hours before storms are expected move into this part of the state this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe.

Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values.

For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR flight category will be present across all sites for the majority of the forecast period from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. The exception will be scattered storms which are expected to move from north to south across the state of Arkansas. The timeframe for when these storms will move across the state will be from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. If a storm happens to directly move over a TAF site VSBY will likely drop to MVFR or possibly as low as IFR flight category for a brief period of time in addition to surface wind gusts associated with the storm in excess of 40 knots. Cumulonimbi will reach altitudes as high as 40,000 to 45,000 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 100 71 94 70 / 60 20 0 50 Camden AR 104 72 99 73 / 10 30 10 20 Harrison AR 93 68 89 68 / 40 20 20 60 Hot Springs AR 103 73 97 73 / 30 20 10 30 Little Rock AR 103 74 96 74 / 50 30 10 50 Monticello AR 103 74 97 75 / 20 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 102 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 94 69 90 68 / 40 20 10 60 Newport AR 98 71 93 71 / 50 30 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 101 72 96 72 / 30 20 10 40 Russellville AR 100 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Searcy AR 100 71 94 71 / 60 20 0 50 Stuttgart AR 100 73 95 73 / 50 30 10 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069.