textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoons. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures look to be close to seasonal averages for the next several days at least.

- Heat index values approach heat advisory criteria late in the week over parts of the east and the Arkansas River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Convection did fire up pretty much on schedule Monday afternoon through mid evening with only a few lingering cells noted over the far southwest at this time. As is usually the case with diurnally driven convection, it is a story of the haves and have nots with radar estimates ranging from not a drop to a few instances where as much as three inches fell.

Other than the weakening convection over the southwest, it is generally rain free across the state although a pop up shower or storm can never be discounted. Skies are partly cloudy with some slightly cooler and drier air now in place behind a frontal boundary, temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The piece of energy responsible for the convection on Monday is now located over NE Arkansas in the base of a weak, positively tilted trough. This feature will finally clear the state by mid to late afternoon but before it does, additional diurnally convection is expected as the airmass remains moist and unstable. CAMS guidance is showing the convection much more scattered in nature versus Monday and dissipating quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

The aforementioned upper trough will remain over the FA on Wednesday but with the energy well to the NE, any precipitation looks to be the typical afternoon through early evening convection as higher pressure tries to nose into the region from the southeast. This set up will likely stick around through Friday with precipitation chances trending upwards over the weekend and into early next week as a backdoor front approaches from the NE.

Temperatures look to be typical for early to mid July across the FA with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s today and then just 90s across the board moving forward. Lows also look close to seasonal averages. Heat indices will be well below criteria through Thursday when some areas of eastern Arkansas and the river valley get close to or exceed criteria.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

All convection has ended across the region but isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through early evening. The isolated nature of the convection precludes adding them to any specific terminal. Otherwise widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of brief MVFR conditions around sunrise. Winds will generally be light and variable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 Camden AR 92 73 95 75 / 30 10 10 0 Harrison AR 90 72 93 77 / 10 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 93 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 93 75 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 Monticello AR 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 91 73 93 77 / 30 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 92 76 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 20 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 95 77 / 30 10 10 0 Russellville AR 94 75 96 78 / 10 10 10 10 Searcy AR 92 73 96 77 / 20 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 92 75 96 78 / 20 10 20 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.