textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

+ Above average temperatures will continue for Thursday and Friday before a cold front sweeps through Saturday.

+ An inch or two of rain is expected through Sunday morning with the majority falling Friday night into Saturday afternoon.

+ Much cooler and drier air will follow a frontal passage for Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Latest radar imagery continues to show a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and into Northeast Texas. Line is moving into a much less favorable environment to sustain itself and will only bring a few showers to the CWA early this morning and through the day. Rather stout southerly flow will continue through the night with temperatures expected to be in the mid 60s around sunrise.

Low pressure, over NE Kansas this morning, will race off quickly to the northeast today keeping the CWA in moist southerly flow. After a warm start to the day, high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s which while still above average, will be a little cooler versus the past few days with some debris clouds this morning from the aforementioned convection.

Winds will stay on the breezy side through the day but appear to fall just short of wind advisory criteria but it will be close in the northeast corner of the CWA and across the higher terrain areas. No headlines planned this morning but a wary eye will kept on the winds through the day. There is a small window later this afternoon for some stronger storms to develop over the northeast quadrant of the state along and ahead of a weak surface boundary.

Friday is shaping up to be another very warm day with forecast high temperatures once again well above seasonal averages as strong southerly push continues. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with rain chances increasing, primarily over the west, during the day and into the evening as another area of low pressure moves from the central plains to the upper midwest, dragging a cold front into northwest Arkansas Saturday morning.

Guidance is showing a secondary low developing along the advancing boundary and with PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches, widespread rain is expected to be falling Saturday morning across the majority of the CWA. The front will sweep through the CWA during the day with precipitation ending from NW to SE Saturday as the front sweeps through. The set up for severe weather does not look very favorable and QPF will range from around 2 inches over the west to a little over an inch across the SE.

Cooler and drier air return to the CWA starting Sunday as developing western CONUS ridge places the CWA in NW flow aloft. A weak wave caught up in the prevailing flow may bring a brief shower to the north Tuesday but the majority of the Sunday through Thursday time frame appears dry as the western ridge migrates to the east with time.

Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be very close to seasonal averages before climbing slightly above Wednesday. Humidity will be considerably lower with elevated wildfire concerns returning even with fairly light gradient winds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR with some patchy MVFR ceilings will become VFR by mid afternoon across TAF sites. Gusty south to southwest winds 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt will tempered down after sunset. South to southwest winds overnight will be 10-15 kts with gusts up to 22kts across the state through sunrise Low MVFR ceilings will move north around midnight as additional low level moisture is transported northward bringing MVFR ceilings to all TAF sites as early as 06z across southern TAF sites and 09z elsewhere. Ceilings will lift to VFR at the very end of the TAF period. Additional S/SW winds are expected again after sunrise, but not nearly as strong up to 22kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 83 62 71 / 40 60 80 90 Camden AR 65 85 64 73 / 10 50 50 100 Harrison AR 64 81 54 64 / 60 60 100 60 Hot Springs AR 65 83 59 69 / 30 60 80 100 Little Rock AR 67 84 64 71 / 20 50 70 100 Monticello AR 68 85 68 76 / 10 50 40 100 Mount Ida AR 65 82 57 69 / 40 60 90 90 Mountain Home AR 64 82 56 65 / 60 60 90 70 Newport AR 68 84 63 72 / 30 40 80 100 Pine Bluff AR 66 85 65 74 / 10 50 60 100 Russellville AR 65 83 60 70 / 50 60 90 80 Searcy AR 65 84 62 72 / 30 50 80 100 Stuttgart AR 68 84 66 73 / 20 40 60 100

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-025.