textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

-Limited rain chances today, mainly across the north

-Well above normal temperatures through much of the period

-Occasional chances for thunderstorms from Sunday through much of next week

-The most widespread/heaviest precip expected across western AR

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Quiet conditions in place across Arkansas early this morning with some remnant TS activity in place across portions of E/SE Kansas. Sfc ridging persists across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast with mainly zonal flow noted at the H500 level across much of the central/southern US.

The gradual warming trend seen over the past few days will continue again today, with afternoon highs likely topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s F. Moisture will increase as well, as low level flow transitions to S/SW. Td values will likely range from the lower 50s to lower 60s F across the state this afternoon.

A cold front to the northwest of the state will gradually sink south throughout the day. As this boundary nears the state, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across mainly northern Arkansas. The sfc ridge in place across the SE will limit any significant southward push of precipitation with this feature. Associated QPF with the activity is expected to remain fairly low, with a few localized heavy downpours possible.

After today's precip chances we will see a break in activity through at least Sunday morning. In the wake of a departing mid-level trough moving across New England, H500 ridging will build over the middle then eastern part of the country. This will promote dry conditions and continued unseasonably warm temperatures. Both high and low temperatures through much of the weekend will be 10-15 degrees above normal for early to mid April.

The H500 ridge axis will slowly shift east of the region on Sunday which will provide broad SW flow across the area. A weak disturbance will lift northeast from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes. This will provide widespread rain and thunderstorms from Texas to the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.

The pattern will remain similar through much of next week as stubborn H500 ridging will remain over the northern Gulf and the Southeast. This will provide for steep S/SW flow across much of the middle of the country. Very warm air and abundant moisture will be transported northeast from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. As a stronger mid-level storm system is expected to move from the Four Corners Tuesday night to the Great Lakes Friday and a cold front approaches from the NW, there will be additional chances for thunderstorms during that period.

There will be at least some threat for severe weather later next week, but model guidance remains varied on timing/impacts. What is expected is that the bulk of the precip over the next 7 days will likely remain over the western third to half of the state. What falls will likely remain insufficient to significantly improve drought condtions across the area. With high pressure in place across the Southeast through much of the period, there will be limited progress E/SE across the state with any precipitation. Rainfall amounts are expected to taper off dramatically toward the MS River.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through most of the period. Satellite obs showing a bkn high lvl cloud layer spreading across S AR early this morning. Cloud cover to become more widespread and CIGs to decrease but not reach any thresholds as cldfront from the N approaches. Continuing to leave any mention of rain off TAFs this cycle due to continued uncertainty of precip making it to northern terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 59 83 63 / 30 20 20 0 Camden AR 83 59 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 79 58 81 63 / 50 30 30 0 Hot Springs AR 82 59 83 63 / 20 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 83 60 84 63 / 10 10 10 0 Monticello AR 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 81 58 83 63 / 30 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 80 58 82 63 / 50 30 20 0 Newport AR 82 60 84 63 / 20 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 82 59 85 61 / 10 0 10 0 Russellville AR 82 59 84 63 / 30 10 10 0 Searcy AR 82 57 84 60 / 10 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.