textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warm, dry, and gusty afternoon conditions expected Sunday and Monday, and may contribute to elevated fire danger across northwest to central southern Arkansas.

- Dry and well above normal temperatures are forecast through at least mid-week for the region.

- A cold front may move into the region late in the week...with some increased rain chances returning to the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Recent sat imgry and objective sfc analysis depicted PTC Isaias spinning across Cntrl TN, w/ AR on the Wrn periphery of the H500 shortwave trof, asctd w/ the PTC. Through the next few days, intermittent H500 ridging wl amplify over the Cntrl US, as the remnants of Isaias quickly depart to the NE, and a highly amplified longwave trof over the Wrn US ingests the remnants of PTC Rachel fm the Baja of CA. At the sfc, this wl translate to above normal temperatures, gusty SW winds, and dry aftn condns. An overlap of min aftn RH values less than 25 to 30 percent, temps greater than 90F (near records in some locations), and SW winds up to 15-20 kts wl contribute to an elevated wildfire danger for much of the state through Sun and Mon.

Tues and thru the mid-portion of the week, sfc moisture wl begin to increase, as the aforementioned Wrn US trof translates Ewrd, w/ moderate agreement b/w GFS/ECMWF deterministic solns that it wl become semi-cutoff fm the background Polar Jet. This wl position a fetch of SWrly H500 flow over the Srn Great Plains, w/ current guidance indicating a plume of 65-70F dewpoints extending over much of the state as early as Tues aftn, but most lkly by Wed.

Wed thru Fri, there is low to moderate consensus on the evolution of the aforementioned semi-cutoff upper low, and another progressive shortwave progged to quickly maneuver thru the mean flow over the BC coastline, into Cntrl Canada and the Nrn US. Deterministic solns suggest a cyclogenetic response over the Cntrl Plains, under the lingering semi-cutoff low, w/ it either quickly filling in/weakening or getting ingested by the approaching progressive shortwave fm the Nrn Plains.

For now, there are considerable differences in location, tilt, and amplitude of the intruding trof, w/ the GFS suggesting a highly amplified and neutral trof over the Midwest and Great Lakes vcty, while the ECMWF depicts a lower amplitude, broader trof displaced further Ewrd towards the NErn US, though their ensemble mean counterparts are indicative of some troughing over the Nrn Cntrl US through that timeframe. There are nominal differences in precip for now, w/ probabilistic guidance highlighting a swath of 1 to 3 inches acrs the upper AR river basin over SErn KS, NErn OK, and SWrn MO. This precip should be focused along a resulting sfc front, w/ a sharp cutoff (of at least 1 inch of rain) fm NWrn AR towards the I- 30/I-57 corridor.

Late in the PD/Fri-Sun, aforementioned differences in the intruding upper trof wl greatly influence temperatures acrs the Ozark Plateau and Natural State for next weekend, as the upper trof wl usher in a fall cdfrnt, driven by a continental Canadian high pressure system. If the GFS scenario is to unfold (high amplitude and deep trof acrs the Cntrl US), there would be a chance for portions of Nrn AR to see freezing temperatures as early as Sat mrng, w/ much of AR possibly seeing frost to freeze condns on Sun mrng (latest NBM prob <32F ~10 to 15 percent for portions of Nrn AR). On the other end, if the ECMWF scenario occurs (intruding trof is lower amplitude and further east), then cooler temps arrive behind the frnt, but a possible freezing condns would stay mostly isolated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure will promote calm and dry conditions. South/Southwest winds will likely become mostly light and variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 64 92 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 66 89 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 62 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 64 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 62 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 61 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 63 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 63 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 63 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 62 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 63 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.