textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

-Dry and pleasant weather conditions through the day on Monday.

-Unsettled weather pattern returns to Arkansas late Monday night into the day on Tuesday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible between Tuesday afternoon and evening.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across parts of southern and southeast Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon.

-Rain chances return next weekend with some guidance signaling the possibility of strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Satellite early this afternoon shows mostly clear skies across the Natural state with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect afternoon highs across the state to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure currently over the state will shift to the southeastern US latet tonight into Sunday. This will allow south to southwest winds to advect warmer air into the state with warmer temperatures and gusty winds on Monday.

Attention turns to Tuesday as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of Arkansas. An analysis of water vapor and surface observations shows a cold front over the northern Plains this afternoon. The front will progress southeastward through Monday into the central Plains along with an embedded shortwave within long wave upper trough centered over the north central portion of the CONUS. The cold front is expected to approach the state Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, a prefrontal trough will eject ahead of the boundary providing sufficient lift for showers and thunderstorms are Tuesday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere over a large part of the state will be quite unstable with the latest models runs show surface based CAPE values in the order of 1500-2000 J/kg along with bulk shear values of 50-60kt with steep lapse rates.

The initial storm mode for storms will likely be discrete or semi-discrete but will quickly grow upscale into a line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms due to the winds being perpendicular to front. The main hazards will be damaging winds, but while storms that are discrete or semi-discrete on Tuesday afternoon will also have a large hail threat along with a possible of a tornado or two.

The cold front is expected to push into northwest Arkansas around sunset on Tuesday evening, then into central Arkansas by Wednesday morning. The front will slowly move southeast through the southern half of Arkansas Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front over parts of far southern and southeast Arkansas, the atmosphere will be again be quite unstable. Model guidance shows surface based CAPE values in the order of 1500-2500 J/kg with bulk shear values in the order of 55-65 kts with steep lapse rates. The storm mode for Wednesday afternoon is more conducive to storm dusters and or line segments given the strong vertical shear profiles across the area. The primary threat on Wednesday afternoon would be damaging winds, but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out.

The cold front will exit the state by Wednesday evening/ night with high pressure building into the state from the central Plains. Temperatures across central and northern Arkansas behind the front on Wednesday will run around 10 degrees below normal for afternoon highs. As high pressure builds into the rest of the state on Thursday, temperatures will be roughly 5 to 7 degrees below normal for afternoon highs. Winds will turn to the south, then southeast by Friday as high pressure moves into the Tennessee valley on Friday, then the southeast on Saturday. A cut off low that is expected to come ashore into southern California will move east and dig along the International border across the western US through much of the upcoming work week. The cut off low will become an open wave over central Texas before trekking around the state weekend possibly bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the state.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR condns wl prevail thru the new TAF PD. SWrly winds should weaken overnight, w/ LLWS becoming more prevalent at Cntrl and Nrn terminals by 04/07Z. Very gusty SWrly winds wl resume later Mon mrng by 04/15Z, w/ sustained winds of 15-20 kts, and gusts in excess of 25 kts at times. Mainly mid to high lvl cloud cover wl be noted thru the PD.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 60 Camden AR 55 81 62 84 / 0 0 10 10 Harrison AR 60 80 60 75 / 0 0 60 70 Hot Springs AR 56 80 63 81 / 0 0 20 50 Little Rock AR 57 81 62 80 / 0 0 20 50 Monticello AR 57 81 62 83 / 0 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 56 78 63 81 / 0 0 10 50 Mountain Home AR 58 81 60 74 / 0 0 70 80 Newport AR 59 82 63 77 / 0 0 50 70 Pine Bluff AR 56 81 62 82 / 0 0 20 30 Russellville AR 57 81 62 79 / 0 0 30 50 Searcy AR 55 81 60 78 / 0 0 40 50 Stuttgart AR 58 81 63 81 / 0 0 20 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.