textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible into this afternoon

-Drier conditions this evening into Saturday morning

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast off an on through much of next week

-Threat for severe weather to remain low...and locally heavy rainfall possible during the period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Mainly dry conditions are ongoing for the NRN half of the state early this Fri morning...with some areas of SHRA noted over SRN sections. A weak upper shortwave over NERN TX will lift NE over the state through this Fri morning...resulting in the ongoing SHRA over SRN AR downstream of this upper shortwave. Latest regional radar imagery shows signs of a weak meso-low over SRN AR...with recent hi- res guidance showing this feature lifting NE over SERN into ERN AR through just after sunrise. At this same time...a warm front will also lift north.

Best POPs through this Fri morning will be over the SRN half of the state...especially over SERN/ERN sections in vicinity of the aforementioned meso-low. Eventually...POPs will increase further north by late morning into the afternoon hrs...but coverage of convection will be mainly isolated to widely scattered in nature over NRN AR. The threat for seeing SVR convection remains low given lack of instability...with only isolated TSRA forecast. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible...but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time.

The upper shortwave will lift NE of the state by this Fri afternoon...with coverage of convection decreasing tonight into Sat morning. POPs do increase again for Sat afternoon as a new upper wave approaches from the SW in SW flow aloft. An unsettled pattern will persist for the next several days...with off and on convection forecast through much of the upcoming week. This is result of SW flow aloft persisting...with upper disturbances passing over the region. Locally heavy rainfall may be seen...but details regarding any widespread heavy rainfall remain uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas may see 2 to more than 3 inches of rain by late next week...but this should be spread out over 5 to 7 days. This will keep the flash flood threat limited...especially with the ongoing drought for most areas of AR.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Unsettled conditions are expected through the majority of the period. An upper level disturbance will bring mainly light showers to the majority of the terminals with a possible rumble of thunder during the afternoon. VFR conditions early in the period will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR with time before returning to VFR late in the period. Winds will be predominately light and from the east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 62 81 64 / 50 30 20 60 Camden AR 81 63 83 64 / 50 30 50 70 Harrison AR 72 59 79 61 / 60 20 50 60 Hot Springs AR 79 63 82 64 / 60 20 40 60 Little Rock AR 78 63 82 65 / 60 20 30 60 Monticello AR 81 65 84 66 / 60 30 40 70 Mount Ida AR 79 63 81 65 / 60 20 60 60 Mountain Home AR 73 59 80 61 / 50 20 20 60 Newport AR 77 62 83 65 / 80 40 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 82 65 / 60 20 30 70 Russellville AR 79 62 82 64 / 60 20 40 60 Searcy AR 77 61 82 63 / 70 30 20 60 Stuttgart AR 79 65 82 67 / 80 30 30 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.