textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

-Shower and t'storm development possible in Southern Arkansas Friday Morning into Afternoon.

-A MCS will move across southern Arkansas Friday evening.

-Generally unsettled pattern through the weekend and into next week. Rainfall totals between 3-4 inches possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Recent SFC analysis shows a stationary front bisecting the state roughly along I-40 early Friday mrning. This front is expected to remain stalled south of I-40 during the day friday. This will steer a soon to develop MCS in Cent OK/TX along and south of it Fri evening.

To the north of the front cooler temps and pleasant dew points. MRMS shows several cells across the region to the WNW. These are being driven by a weak shortwave following the sthrn edge of the H500 jet to our north. As the jet sags further south closer to day break some isolated to scattered showers and storms across N AR are possible, but recent CAMs have suggested that coverage will be more limited than previously anticipated.

South of the stationary front warm and humid conditions persist. A wrmfrnt is current along the I-20 corridor in LA surging N and bringing very moist Gulf air. This front will help erode the diurnal CAP Fri AM and generate t'storms and heavy rainfall in Srthn AR. Limited shear, <20 kts bulk shear, suggests very disorganized/messy storms along the front, but PWATs >2in and MUCAPE > 2500J/Kg support an isolated wind threat in combining cold pools along and ahead of the wrmfrnt. d The approaching MCS's path and strength depends on the coverage and working over of the environment along the front during the late morning into afternoon Fri. Overall weak forcing should keep the system cold pool driven, moving it along and south of the stationary front. More widespread coverage and surging outflows along the wrmfront would likely break the MCS into more of a QLCS type line into LA and a stratiform rain shield south of the stationary front. Limited development along the wrmfront would help the MCS maintain across the state. HREF QPFs have been consistently in the 1-3 inch range for Srthn AR for Fri with locally higher amounts. Current 3hr Flash Flood Guidance has much of Srthn AR above 4in before hydro concerns, so baring stalling or training storms widespread flooding should not be an issue.

Looking into the weekend persistent Srthly sfc flow will aid moisture return across the state. Dewpoints in the 70s will be back in place across the state by Sat evening. Temps during this time remain in the mid 80s, this will help keep heat indices below heat advisory criteria over the weekend. As this deep moisture draws northward isolated showers are possible ahead of another MCS Sat.

This round will be driven by a sfc low forming off the Rockies and then moving SSE into Cntrl TX. The main complex of storms will likely remain just to the North or enter the northern edge of the forecast area late Sat before decaying overnight. Reinvigoration along the remnant boundary Sun will be the best chance for widespread PoPs across the Natural State later this weekend.

Next week long range ensembles and deterministic models suggest a more generally active pattern through at least the midweek. Several rounds of rain and thunder will be possible as the H500 jet axis remains just to our north allowing multiple shortwaves to move through the greater forecast vicinity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR condns were noted over much of the FA w/ some high cloud covg lingering over Cntrl AR fm earlier Thurs night convection. Thru the PD, a stalled frnt over Cntrl AR wl continue to slowly move Swrd, and serve as a focus for additional precip development thru the day Fri, mainly impacting Cntrl to Srn terminals. Additional storms may move into SWrn AR later Thurs aftn, and move Ewrd quickly along the aforementioned frnt, but confidence remains low at the moment. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs wl settle over portions of SWrn to Cntrl AR by 12Z Fri mrng, and later improve to VFR levels by 18Z at most locations. Winds wl stay NErly thru the day behind the frnt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 85 67 86 72 / 30 10 30 40 Camden AR 85 71 87 73 / 70 40 50 40 Harrison AR 82 65 83 70 / 30 10 40 20 Hot Springs AR 84 71 86 73 / 40 30 50 30 Little Rock AR 84 70 86 73 / 50 20 50 40 Monticello AR 86 72 86 74 / 70 40 50 40 Mount Ida AR 83 70 85 73 / 40 20 50 30 Mountain Home AR 83 65 83 70 / 30 10 20 40 Newport AR 86 68 87 72 / 30 10 30 40 Pine Bluff AR 85 71 86 73 / 50 30 50 40 Russellville AR 84 70 86 74 / 40 10 40 50 Searcy AR 86 68 87 72 / 50 10 30 50 Stuttgart AR 85 72 86 74 / 50 20 50 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.