textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected across northern Arkansas over the next few days

-Coverage of showers and storms will increase from north to south through Friday as a front moves across the state

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas and transitions into the Southeastern region of the CONUS next week leading to additional hot weather with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, a nearly stalled frontal boundary remains draped across Arkansas nearly parallel and over the Interstate 40 corridor across the state. A complex of rain and thunderstorms is present behind this boundary which has led to some appreciable rainfall totals of 2-4+ inches in a few locations overnight.

The weak cold front boundary will continue to slowly track southward across the state allowing rain and isolated thunderstorms to track into portions of central and southern Arkansas with the precipitation predominately behind this boundary throughout the day on Friday into Friday evening with PoP chances ending from north to south across the state throughout the day. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on the location of the frontal boundary and if a location has experienced any rain or storms along with the assistance of cloud cover.

An elongated upper lvl ridge is progged to become established over the entire Southern tier of the CONUS, specifically back over Arkansas by the beginning of the workweek. A return to hot and dry conditions are expected across the Natural State on Sunday and Monday.

By mid-week, the upper lvl ridge positioned over Arkansas will begin to shift eastward over the Mid-South to Southeastern portion of the CONUS which will translate to upper lvl southerly to southwesterly flow over Arkansas to finish out the forecast period between Tuesday and Thursday. Expect hot and dry conditions to dominate the forecast period, but given the proximity of Arkansas on the western edge of the upper lvl ridge, PoP chances will be in the forecast across isolated areas of the state, but widespread and appreciable rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday is not expected.

Into the final day of the forecast period, or Thursday, an upper lvl SWT is expected to be over the Central Plains region of the CONUS on approach toward the state. Additionally at the sfc, a series of frontal boundaries will once again be present and PoP chances will increase statewide and at the moment appear to lead toward another decent opportunity for appreciable rainfall for Arkansas. Consequently, with a break from above average temperatures, but this forecast may waver slightly being seven days into the future. However, the signal remains strong within the last several runs of the forecast guidance.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Expect periods of lowered flight category across the northern sites to patchy, dense fog early Saturday morning dropping flight category to as low as IFR/LIFR which has been included in TEMPO groups. The site of KADF may have some areas of fog lowering VSBY to MVFR flight category early Saturday morning. However, by later Saturday morning all sites should return to VFR. A few isolated instances of VCTS for the central terminals will be possible early Saturday morning for only a few hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 94 70 98 70 / 0 0 10 0 Camden AR 96 72 99 72 / 40 10 10 0 Harrison AR 91 69 94 70 / 30 30 20 10 Hot Springs AR 95 72 99 72 / 20 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 96 74 98 75 / 10 0 10 0 Monticello AR 94 73 97 73 / 50 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 95 69 98 70 / 30 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 91 68 94 69 / 0 10 20 10 Newport AR 94 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 95 72 97 72 / 30 10 10 0 Russellville AR 95 71 98 72 / 20 10 20 0 Searcy AR 96 70 98 70 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 96 74 98 74 / 30 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.