textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

-Dry and well above normal conditions today and Tuesday

-Chances for rainfall return to the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday

-Brief dry and cooler period late Wednesday into Thursday

-Warmer air returns with additional chances for showers and possible thunderstorms late this week and especially into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

SFC high pressure will move east of the state by this Mon afternoon...with SRLY flow increasing across the area. These SRLY winds along with the clearing sky will allow for well above normal conditions this Mon afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s for most areas...with some locations across the west/SW approaching 80....and areas across the NE remaining in the 60s for highs. Another warm day will be seen on Tue as the SRLY flow continues...but increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front will keep temps from warming too far. Even so...highs will be in the 70s for most areas.

The aforementioned front will drop south into the state Tue night into Wed morning...with an upper disturbance moving east in nearly zonal flow aloft. The main energy with this upper wave look to pass just south of AR...with mainly chances for SHRA expected as the cold front drops south of AR on Wed. However...there may be a few TSRA as well...mainly along/south of the SFC front across SRN sections.

There will be a break in the precip by late Wed into Thu as flow aloft becomes NWRLY over the region...and NERLY SFC flow brings in drier...cooler air. Chances for convection return to the forecast late Thu into Fri as the cold front lifts back north as a warm front. Warmer conditions will return with the return of SRLY flow and ridging aloft...but increased clouds and precip may keep the warming more limited.

By Sat...chances for more widespread convection look to increase as an upper shortwave moves into the region. There remains uncertainty regarding the path of the upper wave and the SFC features by next weekend...which will dictate exactly how widespread the precip will be...and any potential for any storng/SVR convection. Latest guidance is trending back north...which may bring the better chances for more organized convection. However...this has been a more recent shift in the latest guidance. Being several days out...will keep an eye on the evolution of the next weekend system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Expect VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast period from Monday evening through Tuesday evening across all sites with one exception. The southeastern terminal of KLLQ will experience lowered CIGS to MVFR flight category from early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday morning when the site will return to VFR and remain in VFR flight category. Low level wind shear will be present at the northern and western sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, and KADF between early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday morning. Surface winds will gust in excess of 20+ knots at the terminals of KHRO, KHOT, KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ between late Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 51 74 43 59 / 0 20 50 10 Camden AR 57 76 53 66 / 0 10 40 20 Harrison AR 54 74 41 58 / 0 10 20 10 Hot Springs AR 55 74 50 59 / 0 30 60 20 Little Rock AR 54 74 47 57 / 0 20 70 20 Monticello AR 59 74 53 62 / 0 10 40 10 Mount Ida AR 56 74 50 61 / 0 20 60 20 Mountain Home AR 50 74 40 59 / 0 10 20 10 Newport AR 50 72 45 56 / 0 20 60 10 Pine Bluff AR 56 74 49 59 / 0 20 60 20 Russellville AR 52 76 48 59 / 0 20 50 10 Searcy AR 50 74 43 56 / 0 20 70 20 Stuttgart AR 56 72 47 57 / 0 20 70 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.