textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

-Additional chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist through at least Monday evening over portions of the state.

-Isolated excessive rainfall amounts of two to three inches (high- end amounts near three to four inches) will be possible Sunday evening and through the overnight period.

-Hazardous heat conditions are expected through the coming work week, with area heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Recent radar imgry showed early Sat evng convection waning over much of the FA w/ MRMS QPE suggesting areas of 2 to 4 or more inches of rainfall fell across areas of Wrn AR. Thru the day Sun, a similar fcst is expected for at least the Nrn half of the state. Modest low- lvl Srly flow wl drive Gulf moisture poleward, w/ Td's in the low to mid 70s extending over much of the region by Sun aftn. Aloft, a shortwave trof is progged to lift NEwrd acrs the Ozark Plateau thru the aftn, w/ subtle H500 height falls driving modest instability, characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Sufficient buoyancy overspread by effective bulk shear of 30 knots wl support another round of isolated severe weather chances for the Nrn half of the state. All severe hazards wl be possible Sun aftn, though damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes wl be the main concerns.

In addition to any severe weather, area-wide PWAT values near or greater than two inches wl yield very efficient rainfall rates of two to three inches per hour w/ any convective activity. In addition to anomalous column moisture, a SWrly H850 LLJ of 20 to 30 kts is progged acrs Wrn AR overnight Sun night, and wl aid in driving excessive rainfall and flash flooding potential. 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggest additional heavy rainfall swaths greater than two inches thru Mon mrng wl be possible acrs portions of the Boston Mountains to Nrn AR, e.g., probabilistic QPF > 2" around 50 to 70%. Higher end scenarios, e.g., 90th percentile, suggest local amounts near three to four or more inches of rainfall could be possible, particularly where the greatest training occurs.

By Mon, the aforementioned upper shortwave wl be moving acrs the Ohio River Valley, w/ modest NWrly flow positioned acrs the Mid- South and Ozark Plateau. Modest instability characterized by MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg wl be overlaid by ample NWrly shear of 30 knots. The projected pattern favors some MCS potential acrs at least portions of NErn AR, and deterministic mass field solns are indicative of progressive cold pools moving thru the FA Mon aftn to evng. For now, the severe threat remains low impact, w/ strong to briefly damaging winds the main possible hazards on Mon.

Tues and thru the remainder of the fcst PD, H500 flow wl briefly transition to shortwave ridging acrs the Srn Cntrl US, bcmg more zonal by mid to late week. Precip chances wl diminish acrs the FA, w/ daily high temps trending towards the low to mid 90s at most locations. Antecedent humidity levels wl contribute to the first week of hazardous heat of the summer acrs the FA, w/ local heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees, and WBG temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. Of more concern wl be the lack of overnight relief, as current low temp fcst values suggest widespread mid to upper 70s fm Tues to Thurs nights.

Towards the end of the work week, there is some signal for returning rain chances based on the progression of a longwave trof set to move thru the Cntrl to High Plains, though discrepancies still exist amongst the latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns. Nevertheless, the presence of at least strong Wrly flow and subtle troughing remains present amongst most global ensemble solns.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Mostly MVFR conditions prevail across the FA. T'storm development across AR has begun, brief drops to MVFR/IFR and gusty winds associated with CB will be possible at all sites. An ongoing MCV will also enter the FA from OK within an hour of issuance and push across C to NC AR this evening. All sites have VCTS with TEMPO prevailing TSRA to account for the scattered nature of ongoing development with prevailing -RA groups covering the trailing stratiform rain. Rain to clear FA from S to N after sunrise Mon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 89 74 92 / 70 20 10 10 Camden AR 73 92 74 95 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 70 86 72 90 / 50 20 10 0 Hot Springs AR 73 90 76 93 / 50 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 72 90 75 93 / 40 10 10 0 Monticello AR 74 91 75 94 / 20 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 73 89 75 91 / 40 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 69 86 72 90 / 60 40 10 0 Newport AR 73 90 75 93 / 60 20 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 91 75 93 / 20 10 10 0 Russellville AR 73 91 76 94 / 60 10 10 0 Searcy AR 71 90 74 93 / 60 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 74 91 76 93 / 30 10 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ121-130-137-140-221-230- 237-240-340.