textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Scattered rain chances will be noted across the forecast area through early Wednesday morning and into Wednesday afternoon.

- A high-impact winter storm is expected to take hold of the region later this week and through the weekend.

- All winter precip types are expected, with significant snowfall possible over at least the northern two-thirds of the state, and impactful ice accumulations over far southern Arkansas.

- Hazardous cold conditions will accompany winter weather through this weekend and into early next week, with sub-zero minimum wind chill values possible Saturday through Monday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Expect a few days of relatively settled weather acrs the Natural State leading up to a high-impact winter storm set to overspread the Srn Cntrl US this coming weekend. Regional mosaic radar imgry showed light precip beginning to develop towards the SW. Expect this activity to continue to expand in covg over the FA thru the later mrng hours today ahead of a weak cdfrnt that wl move thru the state this aftn. Overall precip amounts are expected to remain minimal in most locations. In the interim, dry, warmer, and settled weather wl prevail on Thurs, as attention wl be directed to the winter wx forecast this weekend.

Forecast Confidence Points

At this point in the fcst process, there is reasonably high confidence of high impact winter wx over much of AR from Fri night thru Sun mrng, including all modes of winter p-types. To quickly recap forecast trends, trends remain either positive (meaning increasing) or at least steady-state in regards to overarching synoptic and mesoscale features, and liquid-equivalent precip amounts and placement.

Forecast Uncertainties

So, what are we uncertain about? Where the primary transition zone, and associated region of mixed p-types wl occur, which is currently favored south of the I-40 corridor thru the day Sat based on latest ensemble mean H850 progs. Strong H850-H700 warm advection acrs the Srn Cntrl US wl be a large contributor to higher precip rates on Sat, but if low-lvl warm advection becomes too prominent, then warm air aloft (expected over the Srn third of AR) could drift Nwrd, lowering snow-liquid ratios and expanding the mixed p-type zone, thus lowering potential snow totals for Cntrl AR.

Additionally, some variability to total liquid-QPF still exists, and wl largely be controlled by the movement of an H500 shortwave trof over the Baja of CA. If this feature translates faster thru the day Sat, then the accompanying subtropical jet and fetch of Pacific moisture wl be cutoff sooner w/ lesser possible total QPF, and vice- versa. As of now, liquid-QPF still remains significant for a winter wx event, w/ 48 hour forecast totals of at least one inch extending over the Srn half of the state, and totals nearing 2 inches or more across the Srn third of the state.

Freezing Rain

For those acrs Srn AR (possibly the lower three rows of counties), there is reasonable concern for impactful freezing rain and ice accumulations through this event. Latest official guidance indicates ice accruals of a quarter inch to a half inch, w/ greater totals further Swrd towards the ARKLAMISS region. If ice accruals of at least these magnitudes occur, damage to infrastructure and vegetation is likely, and would become significant w/ forecast exceeding amounts.

Probabilistic Freezing Rain Thresholds:

Higher confidence for at least a quarter to half inch of ice accumulation over the Srn third of the state (60-70%)

Medium confidence for at least three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation over the AR/LA county border region (40-50%)

Low to medium confidence for one inch of ice accumulation over the AR/LA county border region (30-40%)

Snowfall

Regarding snowfall, both deterministic and ensemble guidance has been markedly consistent the past few days in terms of the footprint of snowfall and in forecast amounts. Despite shallow Arctic air fcst to be present (e.g. temps in the upper teens to low 20s thru the day Saturday), snow-liquid ratios may still struggle to reach 10:1 over the Cntrl portion of the state due in part to the aforementioned strong low-lvl warm advection affecting thermal profiles. Snow- liquid ratios of 10-15:1 are expected over Nrn AR, but wl be offset by lesser liquid-QPF amounts.

Initially, bullish amounts (supported by liquid-QPF) were noted amongst both realms of guidance, but it does seem that global models are beginning to get a grasp on the kinematics and thermodynamics that may be in play, as a sharp cutoff of snowfall is beginning to take shape over the Srn third of the state. Latest official forecast totals depict a broad swath of 4 to 8 inches encompassing much of Nrn to Cntrl AR, w/ lesser totals 1 to 4 over the Srn third of the state (primarily as sleet). W/in the broad swath, a band of snow in excess of 8-10 inches wl be possible (and greater local amounts), lkly developing just north of the main p-type transition zone (strongest ascent and precip rates).

Probabilistic Snowfall Thresholds:

Higher confidence for at least 4 inches over the Nrn two-thirds of the state (60-70%)

Medium confidence for at least 6 inches over the Nrn half of the state (40-60%)

Low to medium confidence for 8 inches or more over the Nrn half of the state (30-40%)

Hazardous Cold

Lastly, in addition to impactful winter wx, hazardous cold temperatures and wind chills wl accompany this event, w/ the coldest conditions expected Saturday thru Monday mornings. Low temperatures in the single digits to low teens wl be common across the state w/ wind chills reaching negative values thru this timeframe as well. Another factor to be considered that is not well represented in the current official forecast is the potential for sub-zero air temperatures where the greatest snowpack exists in the wake of winter precip. More details on hazardous cold wl be available as the winter wx forecast is dialed in, but hazardous and impactful conditions wl not cease after winter precip.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Mix of MVFR/IFR conds are expected over the SE half of AR, including Cntrl AR terminals, overnight with a combination of low CIGs and FG. Conds should improve over SE half of AR on Thurs by mid morning with FG dissipating and CIGs lifting. Conds over the NW half of the state should be VFR through the period. Winds will generally be E/NE on Thurs ranging from around 10 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 27 48 27 37 / 0 0 0 30 Camden AR 37 52 35 41 / 20 10 30 60 Harrison AR 25 47 24 31 / 0 0 0 20 Hot Springs AR 32 50 33 39 / 0 0 20 60 Little Rock AR 31 48 31 39 / 0 0 10 50 Monticello AR 40 53 36 44 / 20 10 20 50 Mount Ida AR 31 52 33 40 / 0 0 20 60 Mountain Home AR 24 47 24 31 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 28 46 28 34 / 0 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 35 49 33 40 / 0 10 20 50 Russellville AR 27 51 32 39 / 0 0 10 40 Searcy AR 27 48 28 37 / 0 0 10 40 Stuttgart AR 32 48 33 37 / 0 0 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.