textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

-A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until later this morning across portions of western, northern, central, and southern Arkansas for the hazard of patchy, dense fog which may lower visibility to a quarter of a mile or less

-Drier conditions across much of the state for Saturday morning.

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast off and on through much of next week

-Threat for severe weather remains low...and locally heavy rainfall possible over the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

n unsettled weather pattern will continue across the CWA and state of Arkansas over the forecast period. The tandem of a series of upper lvl shortwaves and an upper lvl approaching closed low toward the end of the period coupled with a stationary boundary that will remain draped across Arkansas for the forecast period will keep chances for rain and isolated thunderstorms elevated over the period.

The boundary will meander at times across the state and result in higher POP chances across Arkansas for some days compared to others. Each day will not be a complete washout, but elevated chances for POPs will be present across the state over the forecast period, widespread heavy rainfall chances do remain low. Although, any rainfall which can be added to our statewide totals is overall welcomed news given the drought scenario across Arkansas.

For the Memorial Day Weekend, a small window on Saturday (today) will exist across northeastern Arkansas where POP chances will lower and many location may fail to see appreciable rainfall or any at all.

Looking at Memorial Day Weekend and continuing into the next workweek, POP chances as advertised above will continue to be elevated throughout the entire period. Total rainfall over the period is forecast to range from 1 to 2 inches across the northern half of Arkansas with isolated higher amounts; however, the rainfall will be dispersed over the period of a week. Across the southern portion of Arkansas, forecast total rainfall over the period is forecast to be between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of total rainfall which is anticipated to fall over the 7 day period beginning today.

Temperatures over this period will be near normal for high temperatures, but given the rainfall and overall overcast cloud cover conditions for much of the period, thus low temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

MVFR/VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Hi-res CAMs shows shower and thunderstorm activity across central Arkansas should continue to diminish as it pushes east, while activity across parts of south/southeast Arkansas could pulse before moving out of the state. Main aviation impacts from thunderstorms will be a brief reduction in visibility, frequent lightning, and gusty thunderstorm outflow winds. As we head into the overnight hours. HREF & BUFKIT soundings across the state show ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR mainly across southern and central terminals with MVFR across northern terminals through the morning hours on Sunday. Ceilings will slowly lift near the end of the TAF cycle to MVFR. Light and variable winds are otherwise expected during this TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 63 80 64 77 / 40 30 50 60 Camden AR 64 80 64 78 / 40 30 60 60 Harrison AR 60 79 62 77 / 60 10 10 30 Hot Springs AR 64 81 65 77 / 30 20 40 50 Little Rock AR 64 80 65 77 / 40 30 50 50 Monticello AR 66 79 66 78 / 40 50 80 80 Mount Ida AR 64 80 66 77 / 30 20 30 60 Mountain Home AR 61 80 62 77 / 60 20 20 40 Newport AR 65 82 65 79 / 40 40 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 66 80 66 78 / 40 30 60 70 Russellville AR 64 82 65 79 / 40 10 20 50 Searcy AR 63 81 63 77 / 40 30 50 60 Stuttgart AR 67 80 67 78 / 40 30 70 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.