textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

-One more day of widespread rain and thunderstorms before rain chances decrease this weekend.

-Some additional heavy rainfall will be possible Friday.

-Above normal temperatures and humid air will be in place this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

With a couple of nearby sfc lows in place across the area and the slow moving H500 trough continuing to lift north over the state, another day of rain and thunderstorm activity is expected. Most likely coverage of precipitation is expected to be across northern and eastern portions of the state. Similar to the last couple of days, some locally heavy rain could lead to instances of flash flooding. These downpours will be influenced by PW values around 2.00" and minimal shear in place. A flood watch remains in effect through the morning hours where some of the heaviest rain fell on Thursday. Attention will need to be paid to north-central Arkansas through the day in case additional heavy rain occurs.

CAM data suggests that after some early morning precip across areas that experienced heavy rain yesterday, additional precip may impact portions of northeast Arkansas. This would favor a lower overall flash flood threat throughout the day as northeast AR has seen less rainfall recently.

Going through the weekend and into early next week, H500 ridging may attempt to build over the state and surrounding areas. This will help reduce precip chances while allowing temperatures to climb. Highs in the lower 90s F and Td values in the lower 70s F will contribute to heat indices above 100 across at least the southern half of the state through Monday.

Confidence isn't very high regarding the overall pattern by the middle of next week as a strong mid-level cyclone over New England looks to work its way south along the East Coast. This will provide NW flow as far west as the Ohio Valley, potentially closer to Arkansas depending on the track/strength of the cyclone. If nothing else, it will work to suppress the H500 ridge toward the west. This setup may allow temperatures to trend closer to normal through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The scattered showers and thunderstorms over AR will slowly dissipate in the next few hours, with no TAF sites near any lightning. The wet soils and clearing skies tonight will lead to some MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings in the morning. The areas that can cool before ceilings form will have worse visibility, mainly KADF. Tomorrow storms will not be as organized, but do look to form along weak area of convergence from NW to SE in the state, which will impact most the central to southern AR TAFs, leading to SHRA and VCTS to highlight that threat after 18-19Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 84 68 85 / 30 20 30 40 Camden AR 68 92 71 92 / 10 20 20 20 Harrison AR 64 83 66 85 / 40 60 20 20 Hot Springs AR 69 90 71 90 / 10 30 10 20 Little Rock AR 68 87 70 88 / 20 40 20 30 Monticello AR 69 90 72 91 / 10 40 20 30 Mount Ida AR 69 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 65 82 66 85 / 20 30 30 30 Newport AR 67 85 69 87 / 20 10 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 68 89 71 90 / 10 40 20 30 Russellville AR 68 88 71 89 / 20 50 20 20 Searcy AR 66 86 68 87 / 20 20 20 30 Stuttgart AR 69 86 71 88 / 20 20 30 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.