textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

-Hot and humid weather will continue Wednesday before some relatively cooler weather arrives Thursday and Friday behind a weak front.

-Chances for rain and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for parts of the state through Thursday.

-An upper level ridge will expand eastward over Arkansas this weekend, bringing a return to hot, humid and dry weather that will persist into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

TONIGHT through FRIDAY:

An upper level ridge remains centered over eastern NM and west TX. Disturbances have been wrapping around the ridge and dropping into AR in the NWrly flow aloft. A disturbance over western KS currently producing storms could bring at least low rain/storm chances by late tonight to Arkansas. On the larger scale, an upper trough diving down into the Great Lakes over the next 24 to 48 hours will bring a frontal boundary south across the central CONUS. Shower and thunderstorm potential will increase by Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning ahead of this boundary. There should be plenty of instability for storms to work with as near advisory level heat is forecast from I-40 southward across central and southern AR. The CAMs show potential for an MCV from convection to the west to slide into the forecast area by the afternoon hours, increasing shower and storm coverage from west to east. While deep layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, if an MCV does spin up and move into the area it could increase shear locally and help with storm organization. Expect one or more clusters of storms to sweep across the forecast area into Wednesday night, with damaging winds the primary threat. The HRRR is actually modeling this potential, with several localized pockets of severe wind gusts in the model.

Expect a dry forecast by Thursday afternoon and relatively cooler temps for Thursday and Friday behind the front.

SATURDAY through TUESDAY:

As the previous shift mentioned, deterministic and ensemble data point to the ridge of high pressure aloft shifting east and becoming centered over Oklahoma and Arkansas by the weekend. As a result, high temperatures across the state will begin to tick upward with many locations reaching the century mark by late weekend going into the upcoming workweek. More heat headlines look to be in the offing.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A couple of light showers may pass through KHOT or KADF in the next hour or two, but otherwise dry conditions are expected through this evening with scattered mid and high clouds. Winds will mostly be out of the south across the area.

Overnight tonight a few showers may impact KHRO and KPBK but otherwise generally dry weather is anticipated with scattered to broken mid and high clouds. Winds will shift to a more southwest to west direction on Wednesday morning near and south of Little Rock with a more east to northeast direction persisting near the MO border.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 95 71 94 / 20 40 50 10 Camden AR 72 99 71 94 / 0 30 60 20 Harrison AR 71 90 67 88 / 10 60 40 0 Hot Springs AR 73 98 72 94 / 0 30 60 10 Little Rock AR 75 98 73 94 / 10 40 70 10 Monticello AR 74 98 72 92 / 10 30 70 20 Mount Ida AR 70 97 69 94 / 0 30 40 10 Mountain Home AR 71 91 69 90 / 20 50 50 0 Newport AR 74 94 72 92 / 20 30 60 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 97 71 91 / 10 30 70 20 Russellville AR 74 96 71 95 / 0 40 60 10 Searcy AR 73 95 71 92 / 20 40 60 10 Stuttgart AR 74 96 73 92 / 20 30 70 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.