textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

-Above normal afternoon temperatures will persist through remainder of the work week

-Rain chances will be possible over the eastern half of Arkansas Wednesday night through Thursday, but unimpactful rainfall amounts are expected

-Dry and settled weather will persist through the weekend, with rain chances returning through the first half of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Recent objective mesoanalysis depicted a sfc low moving Ewrd acrs the OK/TX panhandle region, w/ broad SWrly sfc flow over the Natural State. Expect a warming day acrs the FA this aftn w/ incrsg cloud cover by this aftn. Incrsg rain chances wl be noted over the Ern half of the state by Wed evng invof an advancing weak wrm frnt, and in conjunction w/ a passing embedded shortwave amidst mean NWrly H500 flow. Rainfall amounts remain meager w/ PoPs tonight though, w/ area totals only around a tenth of an inch for portions of Ern to SErn AR through Thursday.

Thru the weekend, mean SWrly sfc flow wl keep temps moderating towards above normal values, e.g., +10-15F temp departures at most locations, w/ mostly dry condns expected to persist. Towards the end of the weekend, H500 flow is progged to de-amplify and trend towards a more zonal CONUS pattern, accompanied by a strong Canadian sfc high moving acrs the Nrn Tier and Great Lakes region. Most deterministic guidance remains steadfast on a cdfrnt along the Srn periphery of this sfc high surging Swrd towards the Srn Cntrl US by Sun evng.

Aforementioned zonal H500 flow wl also yield lee sfc cyclonic flow, w/ sfc troughing extending NEwrd across the Ozark Plateau, resulting in a quasi-stationary frnt over Nrn AR and Srn MO. This feature wl bring the next best chance for rain to the region, w/ the Nrn half of the state currently most favored for widespread rainfall thru the early half of next week. The aforementioned stationary frnt is expected to stay rooted over the Ozark Plateau prior to the arrival of a semi- cutoff SWrn US upper low. Discrepancies still remain pertaining to timing and evolution of this feature, which also translates accordingly to QPF.

Looking at the end of the long term and beyond, ensemble mean guidance for H500 flow has been persistently advertising a transition towards a wetter pattern for the Srn US as we head into March, e.g., mean Wrn US troughing and SWrly flow acrs the Natural State.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

MVFR ceilings are hanging on across central and southern terminals with VFR ceilings across northern terminals. Hi-res HREF and HRRR models show that MVFR ceilings will persist through the rest of the day across central and southern terminals. By tonight, the MVFR ceilings will move north to include northern terminals around midnight. . A cold front will dive southeast across the state late tonight into early Thursday promoting lower ceilings and chances for isolated showers across southern terminals with VCSH included in the PBF and LLQ TAFs after 12z. Ceilings are expected to gradually lift behind the front near the end of the TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 46 63 40 69 / 20 20 0 0 Camden AR 56 76 45 74 / 10 20 10 0 Harrison AR 46 66 40 73 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 52 72 43 72 / 20 20 10 0 Little Rock AR 51 67 43 70 / 20 30 10 0 Monticello AR 57 75 46 71 / 20 30 20 0 Mount Ida AR 50 73 43 74 / 10 20 10 0 Mountain Home AR 44 64 38 72 / 10 10 0 0 Newport AR 49 62 41 67 / 30 20 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 54 71 43 70 / 20 30 10 0 Russellville AR 49 70 41 73 / 10 20 0 0 Searcy AR 47 64 39 70 / 20 30 10 0 Stuttgart AR 54 66 43 67 / 30 30 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.