textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Above normal to near record temperatures will persist for much of the state through the next few days.

- humidity levels will increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon heat index values near 100 degrees possible.

- Scattered rain chances possible across west to northwest Arkansas Wednesday through Friday, but most will not see much in total rainfall.

- Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday.

- Much cooler temperatures possible by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Recent objective analysis depicted a broad, semi-cutoff H500 low moving acrs the Sierra Nevada towards the Four Corners region, w/ strong SWrly flow ejecting acrs the lee of the Rockies and Cntrl Plains. At the sfc, juxtapositioned cyclonic flow was noted, w/ incrsg Srly winds over the Srn Plains. Sfc obs indicated a plume of 70F dewpoints over the ARKLATEX region, w/ this moisture expected to quickly advance NEwrd acrs the state today.

Potent warm advection and poleward moisture transport wl yield some very unseasonable next few aftns for the Natural State. Fcst high temps in the low 90s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s wl result in aftn heat index values nearing or reaching 100 degrees.

Wed to Wed night, the aforementioned sfc cyclonic flow wl result in a baroclinic zone extending Ewrd over the Srn Plains and acrs the Ozark Plateau. Asctd warm advection wl drive incrsg covg of precip acrs the Nrn half of the state Wed aftn, w/ greater covg and rainfall amounts more lkly acrs Nwrn to Nrn AR. Latest NBM guidance indicates a sharp cutoff of 1 to 2 inches acrs far NWrn AR to a half inch or less fm the Boston Mountains and SEwrd to Cntrl to Srn AR.

Thurs thru Fri, consensus persists on the evolution of the aforementioned semi-cutoff Four Corners upper low, and another progressive shortwave progged to quickly maneuver over the Canadian Rockies and greater BC region, into Cntrl Canada and the Nrn US. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing has trended faster on the forward speed of the digging Canadian trof, and arrival of the asctd sfc frnt and Continental Canadian sfc high, now expected to reach NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs into early Fri mrng.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt quickly sweeps through the state, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, current fcst values have remained steady the past few cycles, w/ morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s acrs portions of Nrn AR. In the event of a colder than fcst scenario, latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng, and probabilistic guidance for freezing temps remaining below 5 percent. Nevertheless, depending on how strong resultant cold advection is, isolated areas of Nrn AR could still see frost to near freezing condns by Sun mrng.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Recent night time sat imgry depicted low cloud covg/MVFR CIGS moving acrs SWrn AR, into Cntrl AR. Expect this activity to persist over mainly SWrn AR as low level moisture incrs's thru the day. Elsewhere, mid-lvl cloud covg wl prevail, w/ VFR condns otherwise. Srly to SWrly winds are expected, w/ some stronger gusts near 15 kts acrs Wrn to NWrn terminals. Some isolated precip may develop acrs NWrn AR this aftn, but confidence remains very low attm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 94 73 91 69 / 10 10 70 10 Camden AR 92 70 93 63 / 20 10 20 10 Harrison AR 90 72 86 68 / 10 20 80 20 Hot Springs AR 92 72 91 66 / 10 10 30 10 Little Rock AR 93 73 93 68 / 10 10 40 10 Monticello AR 92 71 93 66 / 10 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 91 71 91 64 / 20 10 40 10 Mountain Home AR 91 71 86 67 / 10 20 80 30 Newport AR 94 73 92 69 / 10 10 70 10 Pine Bluff AR 93 71 94 65 / 10 10 20 10 Russellville AR 93 72 91 68 / 10 10 60 10 Searcy AR 94 71 93 67 / 10 10 60 10 Stuttgart AR 95 73 95 68 / 10 10 30 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.