textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-Expect highs today and Sunday to be at least 20 to 30 degrees above normal across most of Arkansas.

-Daily high temperature records likely to fall across the state through Sunday.

-Increased wildfire danger across northern and western Arkansas Sunday.

-A dry cold front is expected to move through the state from north to south Sunday night into early Monday which will provide much cooler temperatures for a couple days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some high level cloudiness moving south/southeast across the state within northwest flow. The upper level pattern featuring northwest flow will stay in place through at least mid week. Upper level amplified ridging over the Desert southwest will begin to deamplify later today allowing for some shallow moisture to stream northward into the state. By Sunday, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the ridge over the Desert southwest flatting out with the eastern periphery of the feature over the state continuing to transport very warm and mainly dry air into the state via south to southwest winds. This will continue to promote very warm temperatures across the state with additional high temperature records expected to fall today and Sunday statewide.

Latest runs of both the ECMWF and GFS shows H850 temps of 18 to 20C by the 12z GFS and 19 to 22C via the 12z ECMWF runs respectively for today. For Sunday, the ECMWF 12z run shows H850 temperatures at 18 to 24C range and the 12Z GFS shows 19 to 22C range with both days well within the upper bound of temperatures at that level per SPC sounding climatology. Additionally, observed H850 temperatures via the OOZ soundings at KSHV were 15C and 19C at KSHV this evening, thus elected to used NBM90 as a baseline for high temperatures today and tomorrow.

By Sunday night, a cold front will dive southeast of the central Plains but with little in the way of moisture to work with the only impacts will be late morning/afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 mph out of the south/southwest ahead of the front. The front is expected enter northwest Arkansas Sunday afternoon and push southeast through the state through early Monday morning with winds veering from south/southwest to north/northeast. High pressure will build into the state from the central plains allowing for cooler air to filter into the state returning high temperatures closer to normal values for late March.

As we head into Tuesday,the ridge of high pressure will slide east into the Ohio river valley allowing for winds to veer from north/northeast to south/southeast allowing warm air and moisture to advect northward back into the state. Temperatures by mid week will run roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal for high temperatures across the state and persisting through the latter part of the upcoming work week. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will dive south out of the central Plains and through the state bringing rain chances to the northern half of the state on Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Expected S-SW winds to increase to around 10 kts at most terminals through the day with some gusts above 15 kts possible. Winds will become lighter after 22/00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 90 63 90 52 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 89 60 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 95 63 94 48 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 89 62 91 59 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 89 63 91 56 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 87 62 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 89 62 91 58 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 94 61 95 48 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 86 63 87 53 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 88 62 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 93 61 95 56 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 88 59 89 52 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 86 63 87 56 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.