textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

-Warm and humid through the weekend and early next week

-Small chances for showers/thunderstorms into Sunday

-More unsettled pattern next week...with some potential for areas of heavy rainfall

-Severe threat may also develop next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this Fri morning...with some light SRLY winds already noted. These SRLY winds will increase into this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Temps will warm further from Thu as a result...even as some increased cloud cover develops. This increased cloud cover will be result of a weak upper wave passing over NRN sections of the state into the afternoon hrs. This upper wave may also trigger some isolated/widely scattered convection...with some low end POPs mentioned again today as a result over WRN/NRN sections.

A similar situation may occur again for Sat as well...with SRLY SFC flow continuing...and a weak upper wave passing over the AR/MO border before the midday timeframe. Flow aloft will increase from the SW on Sun...with SRLY/SERLY SFC flow increasing further. Most of the upper energy looks to remain west of AR on Sun into Sun night...so have dropped POPs to just slight chance across WRN sections with no significant forcing mechanisms expected.

A more unsettled pattern will exist for the work week next week. Upper level energy will attempt to move close to AR starting Mon...but the cold front will hold off until mainly Tue and Wed. This front will drop south into the state slowing as it drops south and becomes parallel to the upper flow. Additional upper waves look to pass overhead...keeping chances for convection in the forecast nearly every day next week. While this setup tends to result in areas of heavy rainfall with multiple rounds of convection possible...uncertainty does exist on how far SE the front drops...and the upper energy moves. Given the ongoing drought conditions...a bit hesitant to get into the details regarding how much rainfall may occur. This will be ironed out over the next few days...and hopefully many areas can see additional beneficial rainfall.

Will also need to at least mention some potential for seeing strong to SVR convection with the more active pattern as well. Given the mid/late May time-frame...deep moisture return...and stout upper level flow...a threat for seeing SVR convection may exist. However...details on timing of upper waves and other uncertainties will need figured out in the coming days on any SVR threat potential next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Widespread VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. High clouds have begun to overspread the area at issuance and will linger and lower throughout the period, not enough to drop categories. LLWS expected to last in North/Central AR until sunrise, and pick up again this evening after sunset. Winds remain predominately southerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 88 73 87 69 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 90 70 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 85 70 85 67 / 20 30 20 0 Hot Springs AR 89 71 86 68 / 0 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 89 71 86 68 / 0 10 0 0 Monticello AR 90 72 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 87 72 85 70 / 10 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 86 70 86 67 / 20 20 10 0 Newport AR 89 72 88 68 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 90 71 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 88 71 87 68 / 10 10 10 0 Searcy AR 89 70 87 66 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 90 73 86 68 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.