textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Heat advisories are in effect over parts of central, eastern, north, and northeast Arkansas and within the Arkansas River valley through the 4th of July. - Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon into the early evening hours. A few storms could be briefly strong to severe.

- Temperatures through hover just above normal through mid week, then warm into mid to upper 90s with heat headlines possible by the latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some mid and high level clouds over parts of western and southwest Arkansas with light and variable winds. Temperatures early this morning across the state range from upper 70s to lower 80s. Another hot and humid day is expected across the state this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up this afternoon. Latest short term model guidance shows similar to Friday, PWAT values across the state in the 2 to 2.5 inch range with the highest values seen mainly across the eastern half of the state. Diurnal destabilization due to deep moisture and strong surface heating will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A look at point soundings also shows steep low and mid level lapse rates with some drier air in the mid levels leading to the potential of damaging winds and wet microbursts. With precipitable water values above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology and little to no steering aloft within the upper levels of the atmosphere, some localized flooding is possible with stronger storms. All showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipated due to loss of diurnal heating of the day around sunset. Due to high dewpoints within the 70-74 range and high in the lower 90s will lead to heat index values up to 110, therefore, a Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as Friday.

The ridge of high pressure across the southeastern US that lead to hazardous heat across parts of the state will continue to weaken and flatten today. This is in response to a short wave trough currently moving into the central Plains. Model guidance shows this trough will move across Kansas later today with both the ECMWF and GFS and CAMS showing an MCS(Mesoscale Convective Complex) will be generated this afternoon across parts of central and eastern Kansas. Hi-res CAMs and short term guidance shows the MCS moving southeast toward Arkansas later tonight A look at overnight CAMs the MCS decaying largely as it moves into northwest Arkansas on later this evening as it as moves away from the best upper level support. By late tonight into early Sunday morning, the short wave trough will trek across central Missouri dragging a weak cold front into parts of northern Arkansas. This will lead to additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state on Sunday. The short wave trough axis will move east of the state by Monday afternoon as the Bermuda high and ridging across the southwest and southern Plains expands to encompass much of the southern US. This will lead temperatures to soar toward the mid and upper 90s by the later part of next week. If this trend holds, heat headlines may again be need across parts of Arkansas late next week into the weekend. On top of the expanding ridge, a zonal upper air pattern will be seen across the central plains with embedded shortwave bringing the best chances for rainfall to the northern parts of the state during the latter part of next week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours across all TAF sites. Light south to southwest winds will persist the forecast period. By this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Arkansas with central and southern terminals most likely to see impacts to aviation. At this time, the timing for greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be around 18z through 21z before gradually diminishing through sunset. Main aviation impacts to terminals will be gusty thunderstorm winds, brief drop to visibilities to MVFR/IFR, and frequent lightning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 74 93 73 / 50 20 50 50 Camden AR 92 73 93 73 / 70 10 30 40 Harrison AR 90 71 88 70 / 40 30 60 50 Hot Springs AR 92 74 94 74 / 70 10 30 50 Little Rock AR 93 76 94 75 / 60 10 40 50 Monticello AR 94 75 93 75 / 50 10 40 40 Mount Ida AR 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 30 50 Mountain Home AR 90 72 89 71 / 30 30 50 50 Newport AR 95 75 94 74 / 30 10 50 50 Pine Bluff AR 93 74 93 74 / 50 10 40 40 Russellville AR 93 75 93 74 / 40 20 40 60 Searcy AR 94 74 94 73 / 50 20 40 50 Stuttgart AR 94 76 94 75 / 50 10 40 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006>008-014>017- 024-025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-069-121>123-130-138- 230-238.