textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

-Well above normal temperatures likely through Friday

-Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through Saturday

-Expected QPF through the period remains low and will not greatly benefit short and long term rainfall deficits in place

-A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-week through Saturday, with the main focus across portions of northwest Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as some weak shortwave energy traverses the SW flow aloft. Much of this activity will be seen from southwest to central to eastern portions of the state during the afternoon hours, with N/NW Arkansas likely remaining dry. Similar to yesterday's forecast, did lower POPs given expected coverage.

Dry conditions will be seen on Tuesday across the state as the H500 ridge over the Gulf expands northward a bit. Well above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and through much of this week. Rain chances will increase Wed-Wed night, especially across northwest Arkansas as a stronger H500 shortwave trough lifts northeast from the Four Corners toward the Great Lakes. With the mid- level ridge persisting to the southeast, precip will struggle to expand eastward across AR Wed night through Thursday. But, with this trough being stronger than recent systems the ridge may retreat enough to allow meaningful precip to move across the state. There will be some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe, but the main focus looks to be across far northwest Arkansas and areas just to the west and north.

A more robust H500 shortwave trough should move east across the middle of the country Fri-Sat. With a strong cold front at the sfc expected to accompany this system, more widespread precip is expected during this timeframe. In the wake of the trough, N-NW flow aloft will be in place and sfc ridging will build in from the NW. This will provide cooler temperatures by late weekend into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

CIGs are expected to decrease to MVFR this morning at most TAF locations. CIGs should gradually lift through the day with Srn sites becoming VFR in the afternoon. Remaining locations can anticipate CIGs around 3kft, or borderline VFR/MVFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible this afternoon with highest probabilities over SW/Cntrl terminals. Winds will be S/SWrly gusting between 15-25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 68 84 68 / 50 10 10 10 Camden AR 82 63 85 62 / 50 20 0 0 Harrison AR 81 67 84 68 / 20 20 30 40 Hot Springs AR 79 64 83 64 / 50 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 82 66 85 65 / 50 20 10 0 Monticello AR 83 65 86 64 / 40 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 79 64 81 64 / 50 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 82 66 85 66 / 20 10 20 20 Newport AR 83 67 86 68 / 50 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 83 65 86 64 / 50 20 0 0 Russellville AR 80 66 84 65 / 50 20 10 20 Searcy AR 83 64 85 64 / 50 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 83 66 86 66 / 50 20 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.