textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

-Dry and warm conditions persist Friday with highs in some areas approaching or tying record values.

-Hurricane Isaias to pass east of Arkansas late this week into the weekend...with chances for rainfall best over the eastern portions of the state Saturday. The threat for seeing any excessive rainfall will remain best east of the state

-Drier and warm conditions return late in the weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Mostly clear skies are evident this afternoon on visible satellite across Arkansas. Temperatures across the state at this hour are in the upper 80s, which are roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October. Sadly, the pesky 90 degree temperatures for afternoon highs will hang around for another day with a few locations possibly tying or breaking records. A return to high temperatures in the 90s are again possible during the work week next week across the state.

Attention turns to Hurricane Isaias currently moving into the central Gulf which is moving east-northeast with high level cirrus currently over the eyewall. The intermediate bulletin from the National Hurricane Center as of 1pm EST has the storm currently with maximum sustained winds at 85 mph. The hurricane is projected to continue to move north to northeast toward the Gulf Coast with landfall possible Friday night into early Saturday morning. The range of possibility for landfall range from somewhere around the AL/MS state line to the eastern half of the Florida Panhandle region. The exact location will be contingent on where the weakness within the subtropical ridge sets up and ultimately that will determine landfall.

Deterministic guidance then moves the system into AL with a west- northwest jog into northern Mississippi as seen with the current runs of the ECMWF and GFS. Models may be moving the system too far west into the mid south, but it will depending on the speed of a shortwave projected to round the base of the the deepening and strengthening trough across the western US this weekend. If the shortwave moves faster than model solutions currently have now, then the remnant low would move northeast and well away from the state. If the remnant low gets closer than currently seen by model guidance, some light rain is possible with gusty winds potentially approaching advisory criteria over parts southeast and eastern Arkansas on Saturday.

By Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF shows the remnant low moving into the Ohio River valley. A shortwave ridge will move toward the state with the axis setting up over eastern Oklahoma, bringing return flow of south to southwest winds across the state by Sunday afternoon. The south to southwest flow across the state early next week will aid in temperatures warming to well above seasonal averages across the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 90 61 77 / 0 0 0 40 Camden AR 58 93 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 Harrison AR 59 89 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 60 91 60 82 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 62 91 63 78 / 0 0 0 40 Monticello AR 62 91 64 75 / 0 0 0 50 Mount Ida AR 57 91 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 89 59 80 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 61 91 63 76 / 0 0 0 60 Pine Bluff AR 59 92 62 77 / 0 0 0 50 Russellville AR 60 91 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 61 93 62 77 / 0 0 0 40 Stuttgart AR 61 93 63 76 / 0 0 0 60

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 90 61 77 / 0 0 0 40 Camden AR 58 93 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 Harrison AR 59 89 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 60 91 60 82 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 62 91 63 78 / 0 0 0 40 Monticello AR 62 91 64 75 / 0 0 0 50 Mount Ida AR 57 91 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 89 59 80 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 61 91 63 76 / 0 0 0 60 Pine Bluff AR 59 92 62 77 / 0 0 0 50 Russellville AR 60 91 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 61 93 62 77 / 0 0 0 40 Stuttgart AR 61 93 63 76 / 0 0 0 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.