textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

-Dry and fair weather conditions will be present across the state today (Monday).

-Strong to severe thunderstorms return to Arkansas between the period of late Monday night through Wednesday evening.

-On Tuesday, northern, central, and southwestern Arkansas will have an elevated potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

-Into Wednesday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will transition into south-central and southeastern Arkansas.

-Rain chances return for the weekend with a signal for a potential for severe weather; however, confidence remains too low this far in advance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

MONDAY (Today):

In the upper lvls, a slight ridge a H500 will remain in place over Arkansas with a closed low developing over the Southwestern region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front is progged to be slowly tracking southward across the Mid-West region of the CONUS toward Arkansas.

Expect fair weather conditions to remain today with strong southwesterly winds and warm temperatures across the state.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a shortwave within the overflow flow pattern in tandem with a positively-tilted trof axis will be approaching Arkansas. At the sfc, a low pressure center will be positioned across central Oklahoma with a cold front extending northeastward into the Ohio River Valley in close proximity to the Arkansas/Missouri border. A second feature in the form of a dryline is progged to extending southward across central Oklahoma into northern Texas. Into Wednesday, the cold front is expected to be pushing across central Arkansas along to near the I-40 corridor and will continue to push slowly southward throughout the day.

Expect elevated convection to be in progress on Tuesday morning (not associated with the primary severe thunderstorm threat on Tuesday) as a robust jet will be in place from 925 mb to 850 mb over Arkansas with storms expected provided increased ascent in both the right entrance region which is progged to be positioned over southwestern Arkansas and the left exit region of the jet progged to be positioned over northern Arkansas. The elevated storms present on Tuesday morning would be capable of hail with a few reports of severe hail not out of the question.

Convection present on Tuesday morning will quickly move eastward away from the state and the atmosphere is anticipated to become conditionally unstable and promote a parameter space conducive for severe weather into Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

The parameter space across Arkansas is anticipated to become conditionally unstable with MLCAPE values expected between 1,000 and 2,500 J/kg per latest guidance along with adequate shear between 15 and 35+ knots across the state. Storm development across Arkansas is progged per latest CAMS to develop across the northwestern half of the state and progress eastward beginning later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening ahead of the cold front boundary. Cells are initially expected to remain discrete for a period of 1 to 3 hours before a linear storm mode is anticipated to occur in central Arkansas. The placement of where storms transition from discrete cells to a line of storms will be paramount in the hazards associated with the convection.

The discrete storms that form will have a potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The transition to a line of storms will promote a hazard of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, storm motion or speed per latest guidance is expected to be between 50 and 60 mph which will increase the damaging wind potential through momentum transfer to the surface.

As discrete storms transition into a line of storms, primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes within the line of storms.

Expect on Wednesday, a possible conditional instability to take place ahead of the cold front boundary across south-central and southeastern Arkansas. Storms which develop will have a potential for all hazards: large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes. Storms development across these locations of Arkansas remain in question depending on the placement of the cold front.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:

In the upper lvls, a split-flow pattern at H500 will take place over Arkansas with a few perturbations or shortwaves within the flow pattern will be noted in proximity over Arkansas on Saturday. At the sfc, high pressure will meander across the region until Saturday night as a warm front begins to lift northward into Arkansas.

Expect a period of showers and thunderstorm completely moving out of the region on Thursday and dry weather continuing across the state through Saturday night before a warm front brings POPs into late Saturday and on Sunday to the state. Expect an increase of high temperatures over this period which will uptick each day as the state rebounds after the airmass behind the cold front from Wednesday will temporarily lower temperatures overall until southwesterly winds become established across the state on Thursday and remain through the remainder of the forecast period. A signal for severe weather is present into the weekend, but the confidence remains too low to include potential or hazards into this forecast package.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Expect VFR flight category until Tuesday morning when CIGS are expected to lower to MVFR flight category near the end of the forecast period from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Surface wind gusts will be present across all sites from Monday afternoon through Monday evening in excess of 25 knots. Low level wind shear will be present across the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, KLIT, and KPBF during the early morning hours on Tuesday through the later morning hours on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 81 61 75 52 / 0 50 60 70 Camden AR 80 63 83 62 / 0 10 10 50 Harrison AR 80 59 74 48 / 0 60 70 60 Hot Springs AR 80 63 80 58 / 0 20 50 60 Little Rock AR 81 62 80 58 / 0 20 50 60 Monticello AR 81 62 82 64 / 0 10 10 50 Mount Ida AR 79 63 80 57 / 0 10 50 60 Mountain Home AR 81 59 72 48 / 0 70 80 60 Newport AR 82 63 76 54 / 0 50 70 80 Pine Bluff AR 81 63 81 59 / 0 20 30 60 Russellville AR 81 61 80 54 / 0 30 50 60 Searcy AR 81 60 77 53 / 0 40 50 60 Stuttgart AR 81 64 80 58 / 0 20 40 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.