textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

-Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon/evening...with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible

-Windy conditions Sunday into Monday

-Very cold wind chills Sunday night into Monday...along with well below freezing conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings

-Temperatures rebound by the middle of next week...with well above normal conditions by late next week

UPDATE

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Concerning severe weather potential Sun aftn to evng, only some minor updates to note regarding possible timing and conditionality of svr threats. Based on 12Z HREF guidance, a window of CI is beginning to narrow to 18-21Z acrs NWrn AR, though some uncertainties remain as to when the line of convection may become severe as it moves Ewrd towards Cntrl AR, owing to more limited buoyancy and modest inhibition. Strong frntl forcing should eventually overcome any inhibition though. Higher buoyancy progs (e.g. MUCAPE > 1000 J/kg) are currently noted over Srn AR Sun aftn, and may lead to a greater hail threat w/ more limited inhibition.

Acrs Cntrl to NErn AR, more limited buoyancy wl be aided by extremely impressive shear. Some frnt-nrml deep-layer and low-lvl shear is evident amongst short term guidance, and wl support a QLCS tornado threat w/ any surging bow-echoes. This wl also bring an attendant threat for semi-discrete cell maintenance embedded w/in the main convective line. Otherwise, impressive H850 winds and expected upscale growth into an MCS wl largely support the damaging wind threat over much of the state, w/ the threat incrsg into the afternoon over Cntrl to Ern AR as developing cold pools mature.

Timing has shifted forward slightly w/ 12Z CAMs suggesting the frnt may be clearing the MS River near 00-01Z Sun night, and significant NWrly gradient winds ensuing acrs the FA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fairly quiet conditions ongoing early this Sat morning...but this will change as we progress into Sun and Mon. Nearly zonal/NW flow aloft this morning will transition to a weak SWRLY flow...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. This will allow for increasing moisture levels across the region...along with well above normal temps. Precip chances look to remain low through tonight.

On Sun...a shortwave will exit the Rockies...deepening as it moves east into the Plains. SFC low pressure will develop ahead of this upper shortwave over the central Plains...and move ENE towards the Great Lakes region Sun night. A trailing cold front will then move rapidly SE through the state Sun afternoon...moving east of the state Sun night. Much colder air will then surge south into the state Sun night through Mon night. Many hazards will be expected with this system as it moves over the region.

The first hazard to discuss will be the threat for SVR convection. Forecast soundings suggest a persistent capping inversion ahead of the surging cold front...which should limit convection ahead of the front. However...given the rapid SE movement of the cold front...expect the capping inversion to be easily overcome with the SFC frontal forcing. Very impressive dynamics are expected with the shortwave as it drops SE into the state...with plenty of wind energy expected to translate downward towards the SFC. As a result...damaging winds will be the primary threat expected...with winds of 60 to 70 mph possible with the strongest convection along the front. There may also be a threat for a few QLCS brief tornadoes along the leading edge of the convection. Expect the SVR threat to rapidly end from NW to SE Sun evening as the front moves east of AR.

The next hazard to discuss will be very strong non-thunderstorm winds. Given the aforementioned impressive dynamics with the upper shortwave...and tightening SFC pressure gradient... there looks to be at least Wind Adv level winds possible. Initially...SRLY winds look to be in the 15 to 30 mph range sustained ahead of the front...with gusts over 40 mph at times. However...once the front passes...and the upper wave moves into the state...expect the NWRLY winds to increase further across the state late Sun afternoon into Sun night. These winds look to be in the 20 to 40 mph range sustained...and gusts of 45 to maybe over 50 mph at times. In fact...some higher terrain areas may see wind gusts well over 50 mph. Have initially used a 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM90 for wind/gust grids...but could see some potential these could still be a tad low. If winds are closer to the NBM 90 levels...there may need to be some consideration of stronger wording regarding wind hazards Sun night.

Winter-like conditions will make a impressive return Sun night into Mon as much colder air will arrive behind the front. Initially...there could be a window Sun evening/night where any remaining moisture could generate snow as the cold air arrives. Some light snow accumulations may even be seen...mainly in the higher terrain of the Ozarks across NWRN sections. Even so...given the very warm conditions as of late...and only light accumulations of less than a half inch expected...impacts should be very limited if any.

Beyond the light snow...windy conditions combined with temps dropping into the teens and 20s by around sunrise Mon morning...wind chill values will drop into the single digits and teens across central to NWRN sections. The higher terrain areas of the Ozarks may see wind chill values get near zero at times. Some low to mid 20s wind chills will even be possible into SERN AR.

While wind chill values are impressively cold for this time of year...actual temperatures will also create some hazards as temps will drop well below freezing. This will result in a widespread freeze for all of the state by Tue morning. Initially...a large portion of the state will see temps below freezing by sunrise Mon...with basically all of AR below freezing Tue morning. Temps will range from the upper teens to upper 20s for all but the SERN sections Mon morning....and mid teens to mid 20s for basically all of AR Tue morning. Given how warm conditions have been the last few weeks...and how responsive plant life has been to the warmer conditions...this cold may cause significant damage as a result.

Another hazard to discuss will be the increased fire weather threat on Mon. Depending on how wet fuels become with the frontal convection...winds will remain elevated on Mon afternoon. While temps will be below normal for highs Mon...very dry air will have filtered into the state as well. This will result in min RH values dipping to near critical levels...with some potential for seeing near Red Flag Conditions Mon afternoon. Will have to see how long the breezy winds persist to see how likely this scenario may be.

The cold snap will be short-lived as SRLY flow will return by late Tue and especially by mid-week. Upper level ridging will also be seen as the ridge to the SW expands towards AR. Temps by late in the forecast will be back into the 70s for most areas...and even some 80s by late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR condns were noted around the FA Sat aftn, w/ incrsg breezy Srly winds. Thru the remainder of Sat, VFR condns wl prevail, w/ incrsg mid-lvl cloud cover noted overnight, and LLWS bcmg more prevalent area-wide by 06Z Sat night. MVFR CIGs will be seen acrs the area fm W to E by 12-15Z Sun mrng. Just beyond the current TAF PD, a strong cdfrnt is fcst to sweep thru the FA Sun aftn, w/ asctd TSRA and significant background gradient winds bcmg NWrly behind the frnt. Have excluded precip mentions for now due to lingering uncertainties, and the extent of the current TAF PD.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 57 70 27 40 / 0 90 40 0 Camden AR 57 78 30 47 / 0 80 30 0 Harrison AR 58 67 21 36 / 0 90 20 0 Hot Springs AR 57 73 28 44 / 0 80 20 0 Little Rock AR 57 75 30 43 / 0 80 30 0 Monticello AR 57 80 34 46 / 0 70 60 0 Mount Ida AR 57 72 26 43 / 0 80 20 0 Mountain Home AR 57 67 22 36 / 0 90 20 0 Newport AR 58 71 28 40 / 0 90 50 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 78 31 45 / 0 80 50 0 Russellville AR 57 72 27 42 / 0 90 20 0 Searcy AR 55 74 28 42 / 0 90 40 0 Stuttgart AR 57 75 31 42 / 0 80 50 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.