textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Arkansas River Valley and the Mississippi River Delta Thursday

- Isolated showers & t'storms possible in west, & south Arkansas on Thursday

- Dry air begins to move into the region, below 30th percentile Min RHs possible over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The H500 ridge that has been dominating headlines for several weeks now will shift westward during the day Thurs with its peak of 600Dm heights centered over the AR River Valley. Wide spread near record & record temps are expected to continue through at least the first half of the weekend. Thurs afternoon isolated showers and t'storms are possible across portions of west and southern Arkansas. Coverage will likely be more limited with the focusing of the ridge directly over the state. Within these storms a strong gust of wind or two and frequent lightning would be the biggest hazards. Any development will decrease coverage quickly after sunset with loss of heating.

Dew points are starting a slow trend downward, which is a double edge sword. The drier air will take an edge off the oppressive heat indices and allow for some areas to start to be removed from heat advisories, and potentially removing all heat headlines by mid next week. However, this will also start to drop Min RHs below 30th percentile over the weekend. With the more humid conditions we have been experiencing have been some help with fire weather due to saturated low levels. Over the weekend we lose this as drier air works its way into the region. Combine this with the very dry fuel loads, fire behavior will likely become more aggressive over the weekend.

Brief relief may be in site to start next week. The H500 ridge will finally show some weakness and break down at the start of the week. This will allow for a shortwave to track across central MO with an attached cold front. Model spread run to run is still wide on how far south the front can make it and if a shot of tropical moisture will arrive ahead of the front for more widespread PoPs. Current trends and pattern suggest that the front will likely struggle to make it south across large portions of the CWA. This in turn would limit the overlap of forcing and moisture leading to not much difference than the random pop-up pattern we are in now for QPF totals.

As soon as the short wave leaves another ridge will start to build back into the area mid next week continuing the run of near record highs and little to no rain for the foreseeable future. Models continue to advertise cooler temps at the end of the period that are replaced with a more realistic well above average temp under the pattern. This is likely in part due to model climatology that is being skewed by normal temps dropping around 10 degrees by the end of the month. Any advertised heat relief should be taken with a grain of salt until a discernible breakdown in the ridging pattern occurs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR flight categories to prevail through the period. Winds remain generally light out of the south with and occasional gust. Afternoon showers and t'storms are possible across W and S AR Thurs. Within these storms stronger wind gusts and sub VFR flight conditions are possible. Coverage of any afternoon convection will not be widespread enough to include at any sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 101 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 99 71 100 69 / 20 0 0 0 Harrison AR 96 73 96 72 / 20 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 99 73 100 71 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 100 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 97 73 99 73 / 20 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 99 70 99 68 / 20 20 0 0 Mountain Home AR 98 72 98 70 / 10 20 0 0 Newport AR 100 74 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 100 72 99 71 / 20 0 0 0 Russellville AR 100 73 100 72 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 100 73 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 100 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-121>123- 130-138-230-238.