textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

-Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial beginning to Summer; thus if you find yourself outdoors and thunder roars, immediately seek shelter indoors as isolated thunderstorms will be possible

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast off and on through much of next week

-Threat for severe weather remains low...but, locally heavy rainfall possible over the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The unsettled weather pattern continues across the state of Arkansas with a series of frontal boundaries that will remain draped across the state or in close proximity to the state allowing for elevated POP chances statewide over the duration of the forecast period in tandem with an upper lvl low that becomes stalled through the middle portion of the upcoming workweek.

A large portion of Arkansas will continue to see increased chances for rain and occasional thunderstorms. A reminder as Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial beginning to Summer, if thunder roars, go indoors!

Despite the unsettled weather pattern, most days will not be a washout over the forecast period. The latest lower-end or underachieving NBM guidance has rain totals of 0.50 to 0.75 inches across northern Arkansas over the next week, into central Arkansas those values increase between 1.5 to 2 inches, and into southern Arkansas total rainfall values on the lower end of NBM guidance is between 1.5 to 2 inches as well.

Conversely, the higher-end or overperforming NBM guidance has rainfall totals between 1.25 and 1.75 inches across northern Arkansas over the next week, into central Arkansas those values increase between 2.5 and 3 inches, and into southern Arkansas total rainfall values on the higher end of NBM guidance is between 2.5 to 3 inches as well.

Latest deterministic forecast guidance is trending a little higher than the mean NBM total rainfall: northern Arkansas between 0.75 and 1.25 inches of total rainfall, central Arkansas between 1.5 and 2.25 inches of total rainfall, and across southern Arkansas between 1.75 and 3 inches of total rainfall.

It is important to mention that this total rainfall will be dispersed over a week long period; however, a few locations may exceed their projected total rainfall if their location experiences rain that trains over the same location which will lead to higher values and possible flash flooding, especially in flood prone areas.

Rain chances will begin to lower into the upcoming weekend as backdoor cold front will move into Arkansas and bring a drier airmass to the state.

Temperatures over the forecast period will remain near normal for this time of the year across the Natural State.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

An unsettled pattern remains in place across Arkansas. The beginning of the forecast period on Sunday morning will begin with CIGS and VSBY at terminals as low as IFR category. All terminals should improve to VFR by late Sunday morning into Sunday midday. For LIT, kept VCSH for the first few hours as showers have been a continued trend across the region. Later into Sunday morning, included VCTS through early Sunday evening for the sites of KPBF and KLLQ. CIGS and VSBY will drop again early Monday morning to as low as IFR flight category across the central, western, and southeastern terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 64 79 65 / 30 20 40 60 Camden AR 82 64 81 64 / 20 40 70 60 Harrison AR 80 61 80 63 / 0 0 20 60 Hot Springs AR 81 64 80 64 / 10 20 40 50 Little Rock AR 80 64 79 65 / 20 30 50 50 Monticello AR 81 66 80 66 / 50 50 80 60 Mount Ida AR 81 64 80 65 / 10 10 40 60 Mountain Home AR 80 61 80 63 / 10 10 30 60 Newport AR 81 65 80 66 / 40 30 50 80 Pine Bluff AR 81 66 79 66 / 30 40 70 50 Russellville AR 82 65 81 66 / 10 10 40 50 Searcy AR 81 63 79 64 / 30 30 50 60 Stuttgart AR 80 67 79 67 / 30 40 70 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.