textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

-A trend of increasing temperatures will be felt across Arkansas over the forecast period

-High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday will likely be 20 to 25+ degrees above average across the state compared to normal values for this time of the year

-Daily max high temperature values will likely be approached, met, and/or exceeded over the period of Thursday through Sunday across portions of Arkansas

-A dry cold front which is expected to move from north to south across Arkansas on Sunday into Sunday Night will bring temperatures back down to near normal for this time of the year

-No rainfall is expect over the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The main weather story through the weekend will be the rapid climb of high temperatures, especially from Thursday through Sunday, which are forecast to be 20 to 25+ degrees above average for this time of the year. Daily max high temperature records on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will likely be met or exceeded across many locations in Arkansas.

An upper lvl region of high pressure will be entrenched over the Southwestern region of the CONUS promoting northwesterly flow across Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front has lifted across the state overnight and a shift to winds out of the southwest will be noted today. Additionally, at the sfc, a region of high pressure will remain and effective WAA via the upper lvl heat dome building across the Southwestern region of the CONUS will become elongated into late week and into the weekend couple with warm, dry southwesterly winds at the surface. Latest NBM and various model solution outputs (both deterministic and probabilistic) continue to show an agreement for possible record breaking high temperatures on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday across Arkansas. Saturday's high temperatures continue to appear the most prolific with northern Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s... central Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s (a few locations may reach the mid 90s)... southern Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Heat index values do not appear to be a concern as the airmass will be dry overall and a persistent wind will be present keep any heat index values near the actual air temperature. However, such an increased temperature change may be be a shock to people and animals (especially vulnerable populations), caution and heat safety are encouraged despite the lack of concerning heat index values as acclimation to heat of this magnitude during this time of the year is not to be expected for people or animals.

On Sunday into Sunday Night, a dry cold front will move from north to south across the state. In response, this will bring temperatures overall back to values that are near average for this time of the year. Into the upcoming workweek, temperatures will gradually increase and rain chances will be nil. The front is not expected to usher in any rainfall as precipitation outlooks over the next two weeks across Arkansas are signaling below average opportunities for precipitation.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Expect VFR flight category through the duration of the forecast period between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Low level wind shear will be present at the northern, western, and central terminals of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT for first few hours of the forecast on Wednesday morning. Additionally, expect surface wind gusts between 20-25 knots from Wednesday late morning through Wednesday evening across all TAF sites with the exception of KBPK. The sites of KHOT and KPBF have been designated "AMD NOT SKED" due to a communication issue, maintenance techs are working the problem.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 68 48 80 54 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 70 48 80 53 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 70 50 82 53 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 48 80 54 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 68 49 80 56 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 69 49 78 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 70 50 82 53 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 70 46 82 51 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 46 78 53 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 48 78 55 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 72 47 83 53 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 67 45 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 67 48 77 55 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.