textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

-Above normal to near record temperatures will persist for much of the state through the next few days

-Humidity levels will increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon heat index values near 100 degrees possible

-Scattered rain chances possible across west to northwest Arkansas Wednesday through Friday, but most will not see much in total rainfall

-Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday

-Much cooler temperatures possible by this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Recent objective analysis depicted a broad, semi-cutoff H500 low moving acrs the Sierra Nevada towards the Four Corners region, w/ strong SWrly flow ejecting acrs the lee of the Rockies and Cntrl Plains. At the sfc, juxtapositioned cyclonic flow was noted, w/ incrsg Srly winds over the Srn Plains. Sfc obs indicated a plume of 70F dewpoints over the ARKLATEX region, w/ this moisture expected to quickly advance NEwrd acrs the state today.

Potent warm advection and poleward moisture transport wl yield some very unseasonable next few aftns for the Natural State. Fcst high temps in the low 90s, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s wl result in aftn heat index values nearing or reaching 100 degrees.

Wed to Wed night, the aforementioned sfc cyclonic flow wl result in a baroclinic zone extending Ewrd over the Srn Plains and acrs the Ozark Plateau. Asctd warm advection wl drive incrsg covg of precip acrs the Nrn half of the state Wed aftn, w/ greater covg and rainfall amounts more lkly acrs Nwrn to Nrn AR. Latest NBM guidance indicates a sharp cutoff of 1 to 2 inches acrs far NWrn AR to a half inch or less fm the Boston Mountains and SEwrd to Cntrl to Srn AR.

Thurs thru Fri, consensus persists on the evolution of the aforementioned semi-cutoff Four Corners upper low, and another progressive shortwave progged to quickly maneuver over the Canadian Rockies and greater BC region, into Cntrl Canada and the Nrn US. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing has trended faster on the forward speed of the digging Canadian trof, and arrival of the asctd sfc frnt and Continental Canadian sfc high, now expected to reach NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs into early Fri mrng.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt quickly sweeps through the state, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, current fcst values have remained steady the past few cycles, w/ morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s acrs portions of Nrn AR. In the event of a colder than fcst scenario, latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng, and probabilistic guidance for freezing temps remaining below 5 percent. Nevertheless, depending on how strong resultant cold advection is, isolated areas of Nrn AR could still see frost to near freezing condns by Sun mrng.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this Tue evening...with some of the isolated SHRA noted earlier dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Chances for rainfall will return late tonight into Wed ahead of a cold front to the NW. Best chances will be across NWRN sections...with mainly dry conditions across SERN sections. MVFR or lower conditions may be seen Wed morning...especially with any convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 89 69 90 / 10 70 20 0 Camden AR 71 92 64 92 / 10 20 10 0 Harrison AR 72 86 68 87 / 40 80 30 30 Hot Springs AR 73 91 67 91 / 10 30 20 0 Little Rock AR 73 91 69 91 / 0 50 10 0 Monticello AR 72 92 67 92 / 10 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 72 90 65 90 / 20 30 20 0 Mountain Home AR 71 85 68 88 / 40 80 30 30 Newport AR 73 90 70 91 / 10 70 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 92 66 92 / 0 30 10 0 Russellville AR 73 91 69 91 / 20 60 20 0 Searcy AR 71 91 67 91 / 0 60 20 0 Stuttgart AR 74 93 68 93 / 0 40 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.