textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Near average temps expected on Friday and Saturday

- No real improvements in wildfire danger/drought conds until maybe middle to late part of next week

- Rain chances (20-30%) return late this weekend/early next week

- Better rain chances (30-60%) return mid/late part of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Aloft, a ridge was positioned over the region between two troughs located near the Four Corners and just off the Mid-Altantic coast, respectively. Near the surface, expansive high pressure was situated invof the Great Lakes. Clockwise flow out away from the surface high will provide E/NE winds to the state keeping T's near average and dew pts mainly in the 50s to lower 60s. Over the next couple days, temps will modify but dew pts will be slow to rebound. Predawn temps were in the mid 50s to mid 60s this morning. Passing high clouds are expected today with high temps climbing into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Saturday should be a near rinse and repeat of Friday.

Late in the weekend, the upper ridge is anticipated to flatten out and retrograde into Wrn TX/NM introducing NW flow across the the state. An upper level disturbance, now much weaker than anticipated 24 hours ago, should pass through this flow triggering a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over W and NW AR Saturday night into Sunday. Coverage does not look as optimistic with many places expected to see little to no precipitation over the weekend. Where rainfall occurs, QPF should be limited to a few tenths of an inch or less.

By early to middle part of next week, the upper ridge is expected to move back over the region as the aforementioned disturbance pushes off to the E. During this time, no precipitation is expected and temps are expected to climb into the 80s to lower 90s. Winds will become S/SWrly, advecting better moisture back into the region.

Mid-to-late week still features the upper trough over the Four Corners region ejecting into the Cntrl Plains. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution (trough vs closed low) and timing of this feature moving into the MS Valley. Deterministic long range guidance is still more bullish with the orientation and Swrd extent of the trough/closed low when compared to ensemble counterparts. While rain chances are best mid-to-late week, PoPs are now slightly lower (30-60% range) with greatest probability of higher totals focused over the NW half of the state. Comparing the model data now to this same time yesterday, PoP timing has been delayed an additional 12-36 hours. Given this, timing carries the most uncertainty with this forecast which could be pushed back even further into late next week depending on how difficult the ridge is to remove from the region. Delaying appreciable precipitation or reducing potential rainfall amounts will only serve to worsen drought conditions locally, especially now that drier air in place across the state which in turn increases daily evapotranspiration.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Some low/mid clouds will be possible this morning across Nrn terminals, otherwise high clouds will stream over the state through this evening. Winds today will be NE/E/SE at 10 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 60 84 61 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 88 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 81 61 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 85 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 86 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 86 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 80 61 82 62 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 81 60 83 61 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 85 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 83 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 87 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.