textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

- Dense fog has developed over the south and southeast with a dense fog advisory in effect through 10 AM.

- Temperatures today will be cooler than what was seen on Tuesday and will remain above average through Friday.

- A storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area Thursday through Thursday night. Some stronger storms could produce gusty winds over 60 mph.

- A second system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to mainly the southeast Friday afternoon and evening with a better chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Much cooler air will return for the weekend and into next week with temperatures returning to seasonal averages or possibly below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Several new daily record highs were recorded across the CWA Tuesday with widespread 70 degree plus readings noted. Temperatures will not be quite as warm today but still are expected to average well above seasonal averages. Areas of dense fog and low stratus have developed across the SE quadrant of the CWA with an advisory in effect through late morning. Otherwise, just high level moisture continues to stream overhead with a temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid 50s across the CWA.

Weak ridging remains Visibility is less likely than ceilings over the region this morning but a mid level upper low, currently off the southern California coast, is expected to eject to the northeast quickly through tonight, becoming an open wave as it does. Pattern become highly amplified by Thursday morning with a large upper trough over the western half of the nation.

Surface cyclone expected to develop in response over the western high plains tonight and race off to the NE and into the Southern Great Lakes by Thursday evening. As a result, southerly flow gets reestablished and moisture will increase significantly with dew points increasing into the 60s for most of the CWA Thursday.

Guidance continues to indicate precipitation will be ongoing to our west Wednesday night with some of it possibly sneaking into western Arkansas very late. Precipitation chances for the CWA increase late Thursday morning through the evening as the upper trough/surface low kick out. There remains a marginal risk of seeing some strong to severe thunderstorms but the risk remains conditional at best as the overall environment is not very favorable, but gusty winds can not be completely discounted.

Precipitation will begin to taper off from NW Thursday night with the NW half of the CWA drying out but chances for showers and possible thunderstorms remaining over the southeast. Guidance is showing a new surface low developing over the southern plains and moving off to the NE Friday afternoon through the night. This second wave will likely be our best chance of seeing beneficial rain but the highest QPF will be confined to the far eastern and southeastern parts of the CWA. The overall severe weather environment looks much more favorable over the SE Friday afternoon and evening as the low level jet ramps up.

In the wake of this system, significant troughing will be in place with considerably cooler air coming in for the weekend and remaining in place through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be much closer to seasonal averages and in some cases, below it. Overnight lows will likely drop below freezing Sunday through Tuesday mornings with Monday looking the coldest.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

For the 18Z TAFs...

A warm front will move north across the state beginning tonight and accelerating tomorrow morning. As southerly flow aloft strengthens, at least a low MVFR stratus is likely to start building in over the state after midnight tonight. The LAMP and other MOS guidance didn't seem to be doing a great job on the timing of flight category restrictions so went ahead and followed the HREF ensemble probabilities for ceilings falling below 2k feet for the expected time of arrival of this low stratus. Future TAFs may have to drop ceilings and visibility lower than low MVFR, but confidence in exactly when and where IFR conditions may arrive is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Ceilings are more likely than visibility to fall to IFR sometime after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning.

Cavanaugh

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 68 50 69 59 / 0 10 70 70 Camden AR 74 53 72 61 / 0 10 50 70 Harrison AR 69 51 68 49 / 0 20 80 30 Hot Springs AR 70 52 69 58 / 0 10 70 60 Little Rock AR 70 52 70 59 / 0 10 60 80 Monticello AR 74 57 75 65 / 0 0 40 70 Mount Ida AR 72 53 70 57 / 0 10 80 50 Mountain Home AR 68 49 68 51 / 0 10 70 40 Newport AR 68 51 70 60 / 0 10 60 90 Pine Bluff AR 73 53 73 62 / 0 10 50 80 Russellville AR 69 51 70 54 / 0 10 70 50 Searcy AR 68 49 69 58 / 0 10 60 80 Stuttgart AR 70 53 71 62 / 0 10 50 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.