textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

-Isolated storms possible Weds mid-afternoon

-Rain chances become more widespread Wed evening into early Thurs morning.

-Well above normal temps Friday

-Cool down and rain chances increase Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A lingering line of t'storms is weakening across NW AR early Weds morning. Light showers will persist in the area through pre-sunrise hours. By sunrise PoPs will decrease across the area as the remnants of the complex pull to the north.

Rain and t'storm chances will begin to increase again Weds afternoon as a deepening shortwave rounds the base of a shallow H500 trough along the NE/SD border. Southerly flow out ahead of dry line stretching across Central KS to TX will create a favorable environment for isolated storms to form across Central MO and tailing down to Northern AR by mid-afternoon. Straight hodographs will keep tornado risk low with early development. Hailers and splitting cells will be more likely if development can tail far enough south into North Central AR.

The more widespread rainfall event will be later in the evening Weds and overnight into Thurs morning. Isolated storms/supercells will develop along the dryline to our W by late-afternoon Weds. As these storms push off the dryline they will become more upscale. If these can remain rooted along the surface a brief all hazards severe threat will be possible in NW AR but will quickly diminish as the line pushes to the east and loses much of its organization. Convection becomes more scattered early Thurs morning as storms run into a very stable SFC to 700mb layer in Estrn AR.

Chances for rain will then diminish until later in the week. Well above normal temps will flow into the area Thurs and Fri. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will be likely on Fri.

Into the weekend a positively tilted trough will swing to neutral across the region. This will bring our next chance of rain across our area. Uncertainty remains on where peak development along the cold front. QPFs >1 inch will be possible where convection does develop Sat into Sun.

Behind the cldfrnt temps return closer to normal Sun into Mon, and Min RH values will plummet into the mid to low 20s across the state. Areas that dodge showers this week will likely become very dry. During this same time period winds remain srthly but rather benign around 8-10kts with few to no gusts. This will limit the upper end of fire wx risk, but the critical Min RHs and where meaningfully rain falls will still need to be monitored later into the week.

By Tues next week srthly flow will continue across the region and begin increasing Min RH values to above critical thresholds. Temps will begin to increase to above normal again by mid next week as a ridge spreads across Central CONUS.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are likely through the evening hours across most terminals. Some areas of rain are possible especially across northern and western terminals as showers pass through. These showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to slowly push east overnight brining the chance of rain to all terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible where showers prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 82 64 87 / 90 70 20 20 Camden AR 64 86 64 88 / 50 40 10 0 Harrison AR 61 80 63 85 / 90 60 10 30 Hot Springs AR 62 82 63 86 / 80 50 20 10 Little Rock AR 66 83 66 88 / 80 70 20 10 Monticello AR 66 86 66 89 / 30 30 10 0 Mount Ida AR 62 82 64 85 / 80 40 20 10 Mountain Home AR 62 81 62 86 / 90 60 10 30 Newport AR 67 83 65 89 / 80 70 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 66 85 65 88 / 50 50 20 0 Russellville AR 63 82 64 86 / 90 50 10 10 Searcy AR 64 83 62 88 / 80 80 10 10 Stuttgart AR 67 84 66 88 / 60 80 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.