textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

-Brief warm up and moisture increase today ahead of a new cold front

-New front drops through the state today into tonight...with drier/cooler air returning. A reinforcing surge of very cold/dry air arrives on Saturday

-Combination of very dry air and elevated winds may create some more significant wild fire concerns on Saturday

-Coldest air settles across region Saturday night into Sunday...with lows in the teens for many areas Sunday morning. Some single digit lows may be seen for northern portions. Wind chills may approach zero up north...and single digits/teens further south Sunday

-Rain chances/warmup could return by the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Light SRLY winds have returned late Thu and into early this morning as SFC high pressure shifted east. These SRLY winds will continue this morning...but a new cold front to the NW will drop SE into the state later this morning...dropping SE of AR by this evening. As the front progresses SE today...there may be some very limited potential for precip just behind this front over NERN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the upper shortwave dives SE toward this portion of AR. Given very limited moisture levels...keep POPs low at this time.

Cooler and drier air will return tonight in wake of this new front. However...another surge of much colder and much drier air will arrive on Sat as the main upper shortwave axis drop SE over the region. Winds will increase as this happens...and with dewpts cratering down from the 20s today into the single digits and even below zero by late Sat afternoon. These very dry conditions combined with increasing winds may create enhanced wild fire conditions on Sat afternoon. Temps will also be dropping...keeping min RH values from dropping as considerably as they could.

With this latest cold surge on Sat...well below normal conditions will be seen over the weekend into early next week. Lows by Sun morning may drop into the teens for most areas...maybe even some single digits possible. Wind chill values Sun may drop to near zero at times across NRN sections...and single digits and teens further south.

The dry forecast will persist into early next week. However...the larger scale upper trough axis over the Great Lakes region will shift some to the east by late in the forecast...with some relaxing in the NW flow over the region. SRLY SFC flow will increase over the region...with some increased moisture levels possible. Chances for some rainfall look to return to the forecast as a result mid week...but overall confidence in seeing beneficial rainfall is fairly low this far out in time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the entire forecast duration from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening. Low level wind shear will be present across all sites to begin the forecast period ahead of an approaching cold front. Low level wind shear will end across all terminals around sunrise on Friday morning. All terminals will experience surface wind gusts in excess of around 20 to 25 knots later Friday morning into early Friday afternoon before surface winds lose their respective gusting condition on Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 51 28 39 16 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 30 45 19 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 47 24 34 12 / 10 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 55 29 42 17 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 54 30 42 19 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 60 33 47 23 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 54 28 42 15 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 48 24 36 12 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 50 28 39 16 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 32 44 20 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 52 27 42 16 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 52 26 41 15 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 53 30 42 19 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.