textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

-Chances for showers/thunderstorms remains for western into northwest sections through the morning hours

-Drier later this afternoon into early Thursday

-Better chances for more organized convection later Thursday into midday Friday

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Most of the convection has moved SE of the state early this Wed morning...with mostly dry conditions ongoing. However...the main SFC boundary remains west/NW of the state where the lower dewpts are noted. An upper wave was drifting into the state early this morning...with some new convection developing along the AR/OK border near/south of FSM just ahead of the main SFC boundary. Expect some additional convection to continue to develop in this same region ...and areas just north into the morning hrs. Coverage of convection looks to decrease by later this morning into the afternoon hrs as the upper wave moves east of AR...and upper ridging develops overhead. However...keep some mention of convection for central/SRN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the SFC front/dewpt boundary drops further south into the state.

POPs will increase back north on Thu into Fri as the SFC front lifts back north as a warm front. A new upper shortwave will also lift NE over the region around this same timeframe...aiding in providing lift for more organized/widespread convection Thu night/Fri morning. While the threat for seeing SVR Wx remains low at this time...mainly due to timing of the Thu night/Fri system...there may still be an isolated strong/SVR TSRA during this time frame. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Low cigs and some reduced vsby in place across area terminals this morning (especially northern AR sites) will slowly improve throughout the day. Most sites should see VFR conditions before 21/00z. Sfc winds will be less than 10 kts and generally out of the NE today. Low confidence in RA/TS activity impacting any terminals today. Overnight, will see cigs lower to MVFR/IFR at most terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 74 60 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Camden AR 82 64 77 64 / 30 20 80 90 Harrison AR 69 58 71 61 / 30 10 50 80 Hot Springs AR 81 63 75 64 / 30 20 60 90 Little Rock AR 78 62 75 64 / 30 10 50 90 Monticello AR 81 66 79 66 / 40 30 80 90 Mount Ida AR 80 64 74 65 / 30 20 70 90 Mountain Home AR 70 58 73 61 / 30 10 40 80 Newport AR 75 61 77 64 / 50 10 50 90 Pine Bluff AR 80 64 77 65 / 30 20 60 90 Russellville AR 79 63 75 64 / 30 10 60 90 Searcy AR 76 60 76 63 / 30 10 50 90 Stuttgart AR 79 64 77 66 / 30 10 50 90

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.