textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 450 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Some fog and patchy drizzle possible this evening and overnight

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Monday before the next weather system approaches Monday night and Tuesday

- Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible Monday night and Tuesday...but widespread flooding is not expected

- A few stronger storms can not be ruled out Tuesday with gusty winds the primary concern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Latest regional radars continue to show an area of light to occasionally moderate precipitation exiting the CWA to the NE. Upper trough currently over north central sections of the state also making a slow progression to the east and will take the majority of the shower activity with it as it exits the state early this morning.

In its wake, weak ridging will build back over the region for this afternoon through Monday before moving off. While a stray shower or two can not be discounted, the majority of the state will be dry once this initial batch of rain moves out.

Attention will then turn to an advancing H5 trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position along the west coast and into the central/northern high plains by the end of Monday. Main low will be located over the northern plains but guidance continues to advertise a secondary low developing along the associated surface boundary as the system evolves.

Southwest flow will draw moisture into the region with said boundary located along the AR/OK border by early Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and in advance of the boundary as it moves across the state on Tuesday. Upper flow will largely be parallel to the boundary meaning it will take some time for it to clear the state but conditions do appear to improve rapidly in its wake.

Guidance has the majority of the precipitation crossing the MS River by the end of Tuesday with the front lagging behind by several hours. Upper trough will move through the state on Wednesday with at least a few showers possible as the upper support lifts out. A inch of two of rain is not out of the realm of possibility with this system with locally heavier amounts not out of the question. Data now supports a few stronger storms Tuesday as the system moves through with gusty winds the primary concern.

Several other weak impulses move through the prevailing flow Thursday and again Friday night but little more than in increase in clouds are expected. Models do slide another trough through Saturday night that could bring a better chance of showers to round out the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 450 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Some low CIGS and fog will be seen overnight for several terminals...along with some patchy DZ. Expect slowly improving conditions during the daylight hrs on Mon as winds increase. CIGs may remain MVFR for a while however.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 75 63 74 / 30 50 70 100 Camden AR 61 80 63 75 / 20 20 80 100 Harrison AR 58 74 61 72 / 10 10 80 90 Hot Springs AR 61 77 63 74 / 10 40 90 100 Little Rock AR 62 78 65 76 / 30 30 70 100 Monticello AR 63 78 66 77 / 30 30 40 100 Mount Ida AR 58 77 61 75 / 10 40 90 90 Mountain Home AR 58 73 62 71 / 10 10 90 100 Newport AR 60 75 64 76 / 40 40 50 100 Pine Bluff AR 61 78 63 76 / 30 30 60 100 Russellville AR 60 77 64 75 / 0 30 90 100 Searcy AR 60 76 63 75 / 40 50 70 100 Stuttgart AR 62 78 65 77 / 30 30 40 100

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.