textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

-Dry and warm conditions persist again this Friday

-Remnants of Isaias to pass east of Arkansas Saturday...with chances for rainfall best over the far eastern portions of the state. The threat for seeing any excessive rainfall will remain best east of the state. Winds may increase some along the Mississippi River

-Drier and warm conditions return late in the weekend into next week

-Front may move into the region during the latter half of next week...with some increased rain chances returning to the forecast

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Warm and dry conditions expected to persist again this Fri as upper level ridging remains over the region. Light NERLY winds will persist today...keeping low level moisture levels generally low. Winds will remain light to keep the overall wild fire danger a bit limited...along with some slight increase in low level moisture levels.

Isaias continues to be projected to lift north and make landfall somewhere along the AL to FL Panhandle Gulf coast late this evening. The storm will move inland into AL/MS...and the remnants remaining east of AR through Sat night. As the remnants move inland...they look to be ingested into an upper shortwave Sat afternoon/evening. When that happens...the remnants may briefly pivot west some before being ejected NE in the main upper flow by Sun.

Most impacts will remain east of AR...with mainly some increased POPs over ERN sections of the state. Much of central and especially WRN AR should remain dry. However...when the upper trough moves west briefly...POPs may shift west a bit...with more of NERN sections of the state seeing better POPs. Even so...most of the state should see little to no rainfall. Impactful winds look to also remain east of AR as the tighter pressure gradient will remain east of the state. The exception looks to be Sat afternoon/evening over ERN AR as the low center may move closer to AR before moving back NE. Even so...winds within the CWA should remain below Wind Adv levels.

By Sun into next week...expect a return to the well above normal afternoon temps as upper level ridging returns to the region. Precip chances will remain low until maybe later next week when the next SFC front may approach the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions to persist across all sites for the duration of the forecast period from Friday midday through Saturday midday. The noted change within "FM" groups will be the variable winds becoming established during the Saturday morning timeframe across all sites. The terminals of KPBF and KLLQ may see breezy conditions with surface winds between 10 and 20 knots on Saturday morning as forecasted Hurricane Isaias is expected to remain well east of the TAF forecasted by LZK within Arkansas, but be close enough to increase wind-shift and gusting potential at KPBF and KLLQ. Low level wind shear may be present at the site of KLLQ during the early morning hours of Saturday and will be significant in excess of 50 knots at flight level 020 out of the direction of 070 degrees or east-northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 76 57 90 / 0 10 10 0 Camden AR 57 85 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 57 82 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 58 84 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 62 80 58 91 / 0 10 0 0 Monticello AR 63 79 58 91 / 0 40 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 85 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 57 80 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 62 75 58 88 / 0 50 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 60 79 56 91 / 0 30 0 0 Russellville AR 59 84 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 78 57 91 / 0 20 10 0 Stuttgart AR 62 77 57 91 / 0 40 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.