textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Temperatures at or just a degree or two below normal through Sunday across the state.

- A gradually warming trend to begin the work week with temperatures running some 5 to 8 degrees above normal

- Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Friday across the state.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Satellite imagery late this evening shows a subtle short wave ejecting northeast from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The short wave will then move into the Ohio River Valley later this morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front currently over eastern and northeast Oklahoma will move into the northwest part of the state shortly and push southeast across the state during the day. Ahead of the line, the environment features upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. A look at the latest SPC mesoanalysis shows bulk shear values over parts of 30-40kts of bulk shear over parts of northern and northwest Arkansas with CAPE values in the order of 500-1000J/kg.

A notable elevated H750 cap was noted in both the 00z SGF & SHV soundings this evening. A few of the hi-res CAMs/short term models shows some stronger storms on the leading edge of the line as it moves southeast through the state with bulk shear values upward of 30-40 kts over north central and central Arkansas with bulk shear values approaching 60 knots near the Arkansas/Missouri line during the very early morning hours of Saturday morning,. A look at hi-res and BUFKIT soundings also showing the capping likely to persist and keep storms elevated and weakening through the morning hours as storms moves east the state. With all that being said, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible with the primary hazards being damaging winds and to a less extent large hail with the tornado threat very low but not zero.

The cold front will push through the entire state by Saturday evening. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in the state as high pressure will build into the state from a ridge of high pressure over north central Oklahoma. Temperatures will hover at or just a degree or two below normal through Sunday across the state. High pressure over north central Oklahoma will move to the east into the lower Tennessee valley by Sunday night and combined with ridging over the central part of the country. By Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure previously located over the lower Tennessee Valley will move into the southeastern US and persist through end of the forecast period. Mainly dry conditions will prevail across Arkansas with no appreciable rainfall will only aid in worsening the ongoing drought conditions throughout the state.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Patchy IFR and MVFR ceilings will persist through the monring hours across parts of northern and western Arkansas through the morning hours, then lift to VFR within an hour or two after the front and SHRA/TSRA. A cold front currently over northwest and western Arkansas will continue to progress southeast through the morning into the afternoon hours across the state. Ahead of the front, gusty south to southwest winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kts, behind the front, winds are N/NW with 10-15kt with some gusts up to 25 kts possible through the afternoon hours behind the front. Light winds are expected after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 64 42 73 47 / 50 0 0 0 Camden AR 72 43 73 44 / 80 30 0 0 Harrison AR 59 40 71 46 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 67 42 74 46 / 60 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 68 43 72 48 / 60 10 0 0 Monticello AR 73 46 72 47 / 90 50 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 40 74 45 / 40 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 39 72 43 / 40 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 43 72 48 / 60 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 43 71 47 / 80 30 0 0 Russellville AR 65 41 73 45 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR 67 41 72 44 / 50 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 70 44 71 49 / 80 20 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.