textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely to move across northern Arkansas through this evening.

- Locally heavy rain leading to flooding will remain a concern as the ground remains saturated in many areas across the north.

- Rain chances end Sunday as upper level high pressure begins to build over the mid south.

- Hot and humid conditions return to the forecast area with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees in many areas. Heat related headlines may be needed as early as Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Area radars continue to show a large area of light to moderate showers and thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and NW Arkansas. With flash flood guidance remaining on the low side across the AR/MO border, the flood watch has extended until noon today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Latest surface analysis places a nearly stationary boundary from north central Oklahoma through central Missouri and then ENE to New England. Strong thunderstorms did develop along this boundary Friday night in a very moist and unstable environment with ongoing convection continuing over central OK and to a lesser extent far NE OK/far NW AR.

CAMS guidance continues move some stronger storms into the FA through this morning as a weak shortwave trough approaches. These same CAMS models end or decrease the precipitation by mid morning only to have redevelopment over NE AR this afternoon as a remnant MCV moves through. Severe weather threat looks marginal and confined once again to the AR/MO border. FFG remains low across the north and locally heavy rain leading to some flooding may be the larger concern today as the aforementioned boundary finally begins to lift to the north as a warm front. Thinking right now is to let the flash flood watch expire as scheduled but may need to pivot if trends dictate.

Meanwhile, a fairly deep H5 trough will continue to dig over the Pacific NW resulting in downstream ridging and increasing heights over the mid south. This pattern change will result in a return to very warm and humid conditions with little if any rain chances beyond today due to large scale subsidence with the ridge building overhead.

No heat related headlines are planned for today with the possibility of convection, cloud cover and very spotty areas where criteria is met. Even the 90th percentile of the HREF keeps almost all the FA out of heat criteria today. However, heat headlines will likely be needed from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Guidance continues to indicate some areas could reach extreme heat warning criteria with a real possibility of overnight lows remaining at or above 80 degrees. Wednesday through Friday appear to be most critical days with the Delta region and the Arkansas river Valley possibly exceeding heat index values of 110 degrees.

Long range guidance still suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region beyond the end of next week, prolonging the period of dangerous heat anticipated to reside over AR. Models do try to wrap some moisture around the southern periphery of the upper high late in the period but a wait and see approach will be taken this far out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms remain during the morning hours for all terminals with better chances across the north. Enough uncertainty remains that VCSH/TSRA will suffice. Otherwise, brief MVFR conditions continue this morning at KLLQ but VFR conditions will prevail and persist through the rest of the period. Some periodic gusty southerly winds up to 20 kts possible during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 90 76 93 77 / 40 10 0 0 Camden AR 94 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 88 75 90 76 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 93 77 94 78 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 93 78 95 79 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 94 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 77 91 77 / 20 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 73 91 75 / 60 0 0 0 Newport AR 91 76 94 77 / 30 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 93 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 93 77 94 79 / 30 0 0 0 Searcy AR 93 76 94 77 / 30 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 78 95 79 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ARZ004>008-015-017-103-203.