textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Low rain chances Sun-Mon, mainly across NW AR

- Temperatures will warm through the mid week timeframe

- Rainfall coverage is expected to increase from west to east from late week into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Main features in place across the region early this morning include a slow moving H500 low off the East Coast and a mid-level ridge axis extending from western portions of the Southern Plains toward the Upper MS Valley. With these features in place, the flow aloft across Arkansas is generally out of the NW. Through the day some weak shortwave energy aloft will move SE across the state and will help trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Precip coverage should remain largely focused across NW AR before rapidly diminishing while drifting SE.

Through mid-week the H500 ridge axis will shift east and will provide dry conditions and increasing temperatures across Arkansas. Temperatures are expected to peak on Wednesday with highs likely reaching the lower 90s F across much of southern and portions of eastern Arkansas.

From the mid to late week timeframe a mid-level low should be making progress east of the Four Corners toward the Central/Southern Plains. Ahead of this feature will be a steady stream of moisture associated with a remnant Pacific tropical system. As the H500 low/trough moves into the middle of the country and the stream of Pacific moisture advances east ahead of it, rain chances are expected to increase across Arkansas.

With persistent H500 ridging across the SE US ahead of the SW US low, it remains a struggle to assess when and how much rain will fall over the state. At this time, confidence is highest in appreciable rainfall across the western half of the state. But, various deterministic and ensemble output still portray some positive solutions that would provide meaningful rainfall statewide. Will continue to monitor and make appropriate changes over the next several days as confidence hopefully increases.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected at area terminals through the period with light E/NE winds. Precip has become more widespread as of 11z across the northwest third of Arkansas. Given this trend have included precip at most terminals, except KLLQ. Overall threat of TS activity remains fairly low and precip coverage will gradually decline through the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 58 82 56 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 92 63 89 62 / 0 10 0 0 Harrison AR 81 60 82 60 / 40 10 10 0 Hot Springs AR 88 63 86 62 / 20 10 20 0 Little Rock AR 86 63 86 62 / 20 0 10 0 Monticello AR 90 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 88 61 86 61 / 20 20 10 0 Mountain Home AR 81 59 82 58 / 30 10 10 0 Newport AR 81 61 81 57 / 20 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 88 61 87 59 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 85 63 84 62 / 30 20 20 0 Searcy AR 85 60 85 57 / 20 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 88 61 87 59 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.