textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Above normal to near record temperatures will prevail again on Thursday for much of the state.

- Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state through early Thursday afternoon.

- Elevated wildfire danger will be possible on Friday over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas.

- Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs.

Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Intermittent MVFR to IFR condns were noted acrs Nrn to Wrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. Expect patchy fog and low CIGs to persist for the next few hours, w/ condns improving thereafter. Thru the day, SWrly winds wl prevail, w/ some gusts up to 15 kts possible. Late in the PD, near 16/06Z, a strong cdfrnt wl move thru the region, w/ gusty NWrly winds of 20 to 25 kts expected into Fri mrng.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 54 65 45 / 10 10 10 0 Camden AR 92 59 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 86 47 59 41 / 40 80 0 0 Hot Springs AR 91 54 67 44 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 91 59 67 46 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 92 63 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 48 65 41 / 0 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 87 50 60 43 / 30 70 0 0 Newport AR 91 56 66 45 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 58 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 91 53 66 44 / 10 40 0 0 Searcy AR 91 56 67 44 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 93 59 69 46 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.