textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

-Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening

-Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat

-Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening.

Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low.

Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat.

Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front and a broken line of thunderstorms will slowly move S/SE across the state throughout the day. Ahead of this activity, MVFR cigs will be fairly widespread through the morning hours. As TS activity progresses through, both cigs/vsby are expected to be significantly reduced at times. Overall movement is expected to be slow and it will take a long time for precip to make it to KLLQ. Behind the front and after the heavier rain/TS activity moves through, MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the end of the period. Sfc winds will be out of the south around 10 kts with occasional higher gusts until the front moves through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 83 66 75 62 / 80 50 60 40 Camden AR 90 68 82 65 / 80 60 70 60 Harrison AR 77 61 70 59 / 90 70 50 30 Hot Springs AR 86 67 80 64 / 90 40 60 50 Little Rock AR 88 67 79 63 / 80 50 70 50 Monticello AR 91 69 82 67 / 70 80 80 60 Mount Ida AR 83 67 79 66 / 90 40 70 50 Mountain Home AR 78 61 71 58 / 90 60 50 30 Newport AR 85 68 77 62 / 70 60 70 40 Pine Bluff AR 91 68 80 65 / 80 50 70 50 Russellville AR 84 66 78 63 / 90 50 60 40 Searcy AR 86 66 78 61 / 70 50 70 40 Stuttgart AR 90 69 80 66 / 80 50 70 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.