textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across the southeast half of Arkansas on Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day of very warm temperatures is expected across much of the state as sfc and mid-level ridging persist across the SE US. Highs Thu afternoon are expected to climb into the 90s F once again across much of central, southern and eastern Arkansas. Precip will be slow to move in from the west Thursday, but portions of western AR will see some occasional showers and thunderstorms through the day. The precip and associated cloud cover will help keep temperatures slightly cooler across the west.

The slow moving H500 low is located just west of the TX/OK panhandles late this evening and has provided significant rainfall to portions of the Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday. Over the next 12-24 hours the mid-level low will weaken and begin to open as it encounters the strong Southeast ridge. It will slowly progress E/NE toward the Mid-MS Valley before being absorbed into a northern stream trough advancing east across the Ohio Valley.

At the sfc, a cold front will approach the area from the west and will provide the focus for widespread precip from south Texas to the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. With the loss of much upper level support, this is where rainfall amounts begin to taper off. The remnant moisture plume from Polo (characterized by PW values of 2-2.5 inches) will begin to diminish and widespread rainfall efficiency will be reduced. The spread in precip amounts amongst various model solutions, including ensembles, remains high for an event in this time-range. The general idea that western Arkansas will see the highest rainfall totals still holds true, with amounts expected to taper off toward the east. Before PW values really diminish, there could be some localized rainfall totals of 2-4 inches in some spots through Friday morning, but these are expected to remain isolated.

By the weekend the front will shift south of the state and precip chances will diminish from north to south. The Southeast ridge will be forced southward as a stronger trough builds across the eastern US. This will provide NW flow aloft over the state and sfc ridging will build in just north of the area. This will provide at least a few days of below normal temperatures across the state. There could even be a few mornings early next week with lows in the 40s F across parts of the state.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Mostly VFR conditions across the region will begin to degrade over the next several hours as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Widespread MVFR with embedded IFR CIGs will move in with rain across most sites overnight Thurs. Some spotty TS activity will be possible overnight but coverage is expected to become more widespread by mid day Fri. Within any stronger showers and TS IFR or worse CIGs will be possible along with gusty winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 92 69 75 59 / 0 70 80 30 Camden AR 93 70 84 64 / 0 30 40 40 Harrison AR 85 66 70 57 / 70 100 90 20 Hot Springs AR 91 69 79 62 / 20 70 70 50 Little Rock AR 92 71 78 62 / 0 50 70 40 Monticello AR 93 72 87 67 / 0 20 30 30 Mount Ida AR 89 66 78 59 / 50 70 80 60 Mountain Home AR 87 66 71 56 / 40 100 90 20 Newport AR 93 71 76 61 / 0 50 80 30 Pine Bluff AR 93 70 83 63 / 0 30 60 40 Russellville AR 90 68 77 61 / 40 80 80 40 Searcy AR 93 69 77 61 / 0 60 80 40 Stuttgart AR 95 72 81 64 / 0 40 70 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.