textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- The next cold front will move across the forecast area today with a reinforcing shot of cooler air behind it.

- High pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front with seasonably cool temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday night and into Monday for primarily western and southern Arkansas. Rain amounts are not expected to be significant.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Latest guidance continues to support the current forecast and no significant changes will be made this morning. Latest surface analysis places the cold front that went across the state Wednesday well to the south of the area. Somewhat cooler but much drier air continues to overspread over the FA with barely a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery.

The upper pattern continues to amplify with upper ridging extending from the four corners into the northern Rockies with a deepening downstream trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A second cold front will be swinging through the state today and while no moisture is expected from it, it will deepen the NW flow aloft that is already in place with a good slug of even cooler air in its wake.

Even with nearly full sun, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s across the north with lower 70s on tap for the south before the second boundary arrives. On the surface, building Canadian high pressure will help keep temperatures on the cool side with high temperatures Friday through the weekend only getting into the 50s. Low temps are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s with Saturday morning still looking to be the coldest morning.

Upper flow does begin to ease Saturday night and Sunday as a new trough slides down the Rockies and into the central plains by Sunday morning. As has been the case of late, system will not have a great deal of moisture to work with and looses much of its identity before getting to the FA. The best rain chances will be over southern and western Arkansas Sunday night/Monday but overall rain amounts do not appear to be significant.

Once this upper trough passes through, ridging will begin to build back over the area Monday night and Tuesday ending any precipitation chances. Temperatures will also begin to moderate with widespread 60s returning by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

NW/N winds of 10-15 kts will persist through the afternoon along with occasional gusts above 20 kts. Winds will relax after 13/00z and be much lighter through the end of the period. VFR conditions will be in place through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 64 33 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 71 36 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 58 30 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 69 34 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 68 37 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 69 37 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 67 30 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 33 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 35 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 34 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 66 35 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 66 33 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.