textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Low rain chances Sun-Mon, mainly across NW AR

- Temperatures will warm through the mid week timeframe

- Rainfall coverage is expected to increase from west to east from late week into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Aloft this afternoon, a H500 low located over the US east coast continues to move up the eastern seaboard this afternoon. A mid level ridge encompasses the western portion of the central and southern Plains regions with deepening trough moving ashore onto the US west coast region. The aforementioned upper level features are promoting northwest flow over the state with light east to northeast winds across the state. A subtle weak shortwave continues to trek southeast across Arkansas leading to a complex of showers across northwest Arkansas with isolated showers elsewhere within the state. Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue to diminish through the evening hours across Arkansas.

As we head into the first half of the work week, the H500 ridge axis will gradually move eastward toward the state promoting dry and warm condtions within afternoon highs running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal late September across Arkansas.

During the latter part of the week, a deepening and digging trough with cut off low will continue to progress to just south of the Four Corners region on Monday. Both the ECMWF and GFS shows the remnants of Hurricane Polo moving north out of the Mexican state of Sonora into the desert Southwest before being absorbed into the trough sometime Monday night into Tuesday. The cut off low/upper trough will gradually progress eastward into the central and southern Plains during the latter part of the week. Ahead of the trough, the subtropical jet will aid in bringing plentiful moisture off the Pacific into the central and southern Plains.

This will lead to an increase in rain chances during the latter part of the week into the weekend across the state. With ensembles and the ECMWF continuing to show a strengthening ridge over the southeast US ahead of trough over the central and southern Plains, confidence remains below average with regards to potential rainfall amounts across the state. As mentioned yesterday and during this morning's discussion, confidence remains highest for appreciable rainfall across parts of northwest and western Arkansas during the latter part of the week into the weekend. Both the NBM 50th percentile and ECMWF ensemble shows 1 to 2 inches amounts across western and northwest Arkansas, while the GFS ensemble and NBM 90th percentile showing amounts of 2 or inches statewide with amounts of 3+ inches across parts of western and northwest Arkansas. Will continue to monitor the forecast and make changes to the forecast as forecast confidence hopefully starts to increase closer to the event.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period with light winds mainly out of the E/NE through the period. Light showers over northwest/west Arkansas and parts of southwest, east, central and northeast Arkansas will gradually diminish through the afternoon into the evening hours. High pressure will build into the state from the west overnight leading to a decrease of cloudiness across the state throughout the day on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 80 57 85 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 62 90 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 59 81 59 87 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 62 86 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 63 85 61 89 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 63 88 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 59 85 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 80 57 86 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 61 80 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 86 59 90 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 62 83 61 88 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 82 58 88 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 62 85 60 89 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.