textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted sctd covg of precip moving NEwrd acrs the the NWrn half of the FA, located along a 35kt H850 LLJ. At the sfc, a cdfrnt was noted moving SE slowly acrs the Cntrl Plains and portions SErn KS. Thru the day Fri, expect this cdfrnt to continue moving SEwrd into the FA, reaching NWrn AR b/w 12-15Z, but lkly stalling acrs Cntrl AR. Asctd precip activity wl continue along a SW to NE axis along the frnt, w/ latest HREF/REFS 50th percentile guidance indicating a swath of 1-2 inches possible over much of Wrn to NWrn AR thru Sat. NBM 50th percentile is also advertising similar amounts, while much of Cntrl to SErn AR looks to receive minimal rainfall, generally under one half to one inch. Some high-res LPMM guidance suggests a few swaths of 2+ inches could be possible, but rainfall amounts of this magnitude wl be confined any areas of significant training.

Sat thru Sun, the previously stalled frnt should continue to slowly move Swrd, ushering drier and cooler air into the region, w/ low chance precip lingering over SErn AR. This frnt should bring a seasonal airmass change to the region, w/ low temps in the 50s expected on Mon mrng, and lows in the 40s acrs portions of the state by Tues mrng. Thru early to mid-week next week, stronger H500 flow wl recede poleward, w/ weak flow aloft and post-cdfrntl condns contributing to below normal high temperatures acrs the FA, though as Srly sfc flow resumes by mid-week, daily high temps wl trend upwards once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through much of the period as a cold front continue to push through the state. This front is bringing mostly light rain to terminals. This will be mostly maintained through the period with low CIGs and reduced VIS due to rain showers. Winds could be gusty out of the south at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 57 73 57 78 / 30 10 10 0 Camden AR 63 79 61 80 / 20 30 50 30 Harrison AR 56 73 57 80 / 20 10 10 0 Hot Springs AR 61 75 61 80 / 30 30 20 10 Little Rock AR 61 74 61 79 / 30 20 20 10 Monticello AR 64 81 63 79 / 20 40 50 50 Mount Ida AR 58 75 57 80 / 30 20 20 10 Mountain Home AR 56 74 56 81 / 10 10 10 0 Newport AR 61 73 61 77 / 20 20 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 77 60 78 / 20 20 40 30 Russellville AR 60 75 59 81 / 20 20 10 0 Searcy AR 59 74 59 79 / 20 20 20 0 Stuttgart AR 62 77 62 79 / 20 30 30 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.