textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

-Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening

-Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat

-Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening.

Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low.

Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat.

Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across southern Arkansas will gradually moving east-southeast through the evening hours and out of the state late tonight. VFR/MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR at all terminals late tonight into Wednesday morning, then gradually lift to MVFR/VFR on Wednesday afternoon. Additional isolated SHRA/TSRA may be develop near the end of the period within the vicinity of central terminals, but confidence is too low at this time to place in the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 74 60 74 / 60 40 30 50 Camden AR 66 82 65 79 / 60 40 50 80 Harrison AR 60 70 58 72 / 50 30 30 50 Hot Springs AR 66 80 63 75 / 50 30 30 70 Little Rock AR 66 78 62 75 / 60 30 30 70 Monticello AR 68 82 66 80 / 80 50 40 80 Mount Ida AR 66 79 64 74 / 50 30 40 70 Mountain Home AR 60 70 58 73 / 50 40 20 40 Newport AR 65 76 61 77 / 60 50 30 60 Pine Bluff AR 67 81 64 78 / 60 40 30 80 Russellville AR 65 77 62 75 / 50 30 30 60 Searcy AR 64 77 60 76 / 60 50 30 60 Stuttgart AR 68 79 64 77 / 60 50 30 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.