textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

-A Heat Advisory continues through Saturday evening across eastern Arkansas, a large part of central Arkansas, the Arkansas River Valley, and a portion of west-central Arkansas

-A portion of the Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning on Thursday and Friday as dangerous heat index values of 110+ settle over parts of the advisory area

-Isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will be possible from this weekend through the remainder of the forecast period for parts of Arkansas, but chances will be very low and rainfall totals in locations that do experience rainfall will be very low

-Hot and dry conditions overall will continue to persist for the remainder of the week and into the Labor Day Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

WEDNESDAY (TODAY) through FRIDAY:

The upper lvl ridge remains in place over Arkansas which will promote the continuation of hot and dry conditions. At the sfc, a region of high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS will continue to promote southerly flow across Arkansas which is progged to raise dewpoint temperatures by a few degrees, especially going into Thursday and Friday. In response, a few locations within the current Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning as heat index values may soar between 110 and near 115 degrees in some locations with gulf moisture being advected into the state. Into Friday, lower end POPs or precipitation chances will be introduced across southern Arkansas as the combination of moisture streaming into the region with a stationary front north of the state may spur a few isolated showers or thunderstorms, but chances remain low and total rainfall would not amount to much, perhaps not enough to settle the dust.

SATURDAY through TUESDAY:

The upper lvl ridge remains in place over Arkansas with the center of the ridge becoming displaced westward over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS positioning Arkansas under the eastern periphery of the upper lvl ridge. At the sfc, a weak backdoor cold front or movement of a frontal boundary from northeast to southwest will approach the state over this period tapping into moisture, but given the strength of the upper lvl ridge POP chances while present across parts of the state will remain very low and isolated leading to most locations remaining completely dry. It is reasonable to continue to expect hot and dry conditions overall within this period. Heat products will likely need to be extended to cover this period as well.

LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD:

The closest signal of possible appreciable rainfall and lower temperatures closer to normal for this time of the year per the 00Z suite of model guidance in tandem with the 19Z NBM guidance from yesterday which highlights a period later next workweek when we may have a break from the continued hot temperatures and an opportunity for respectable rain chances across Arkansas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period through Thursday morning. Some fair weather cumulus and occasional shower or thunderstorm could occur, but chances of any terminals affected are very low. Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue across Arkansas provided a strong upper level ridge in place over the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 77 100 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 73 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 74 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 96 76 98 / 0 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 72 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 75 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 74 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 76 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230- 237-238.