textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

-A Heat Advisory will be in effect during the day Wednesday (today) across most of Arkansas for dangerous heat index values which will reach between 105 and 109 degrees

-Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be present across northern Arkansas this afternoon into this evening and become widespread across much of Arkansas on Thursday afternoon/ Thursday evening and continue into Friday

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas next week equating in a return to hot and dry conditions returning to the CWA and state of Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The upper lvl elongated ridge positioned over Arkansas will begin to break down today as a SWT drops into the Central Plains region of region of the CONUS splitting the elongated ridge into two distinct upper lvl regions of high pressure: one positioned over the Desert Southwest region of the CONUS and the second one located over the Southeastern region of the CONUS.

At the sfc, a cold front will be approaching the state from the northwest and bring an increase of PoPs to northern Arkansas beginning as early as this afternoon into this evening, but most of the state is progged to remain dry today. Into the day on Thursday, which will be the highest chance for PoPs across much of the state, rain chances will be present nearly CWA-wide, but the northern portions of the state will have the highest probability at total rainfall over this three-day period of today, Friday, and Saturday at receiving rainfall amounts between a tenth of an inch to around a half-inch, a low confidence bullseye or two do exist for a couple locations across northern Arkansas to near an inch of total rainfall which may come to those within the most efficient regions of convection over the period, but lesser values of total rainfall will be common and expected.

Into central Arkansas over this period, unfortunately a sharp gradient will exist where rainfall totals lower considerably as the frontal boundary is progged to stall and begin lifting northward by the weekend. Total rainfall values of a trace to near a half-inch within the most efficient producing convection is expected.

The truly unfortunate situation will be across southern Arkansas where many locations will likely see clouds, but not much total rainfall with the highest totals in this region varying from a trace amount to a few tenths of an inch.

The welcomed tradeoff will be that increased chances for PoPs across much of the state will equate to lower high temperature values as a combination of cloud cover and rain cooled air will provide relief from the triple digit heat across much of the state beginning on Thursday and last through the weekend into next week with multiple sfc boundaries remaining in decent proximity to Arkansas with increased cloud cover and increased PoPs in isolated locations.

It is to note that after the timeframe through Friday, rain chances will begin to wane across the state and hot and dry conditions will begin to be felt across the state once more as an upper lvl ridge builds back over Arkansas into the upcoming workweek. However, the latest 00Z suite of model guidance has hinted that while high temperatures will be above average for this time of the year that temperatures while hot will struggle to return to the triple digits after Thursday across the majority of the state.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Expect VFR flight category to remain across all terminals over the forecast period from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. Surface winds at most terminals will begin the period light and variable becoming established out of the south-southwest to southwest later Wednesday morning. Included VCTS later in the period across the northern terminals between Wednesday evening for the remainder of the forecast period, but confidence in coverage remains low. Surface winds are expected to return to light and variable across sites late Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 103 77 98 71 / 10 10 50 60 Camden AR 98 73 98 72 / 10 0 20 20 Harrison AR 98 74 89 68 / 20 20 60 40 Hot Springs AR 99 75 98 72 / 0 0 40 40 Little Rock AR 100 78 98 74 / 0 0 30 40 Monticello AR 97 75 97 74 / 0 0 10 20 Mount Ida AR 99 73 97 69 / 0 0 40 50 Mountain Home AR 100 74 90 68 / 20 20 50 40 Newport AR 101 77 97 72 / 0 10 50 60 Pine Bluff AR 97 74 97 72 / 10 0 20 30 Russellville AR 102 75 97 71 / 0 0 50 50 Searcy AR 101 75 98 71 / 0 0 40 50 Stuttgart AR 100 77 99 74 / 10 0 30 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.