textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

-Areas of sub-freezing conditions will be present again across portions of Arkansas on early Sunday morning

-Limited rain chances on Sunday across far southern and far western Arkansas

-Rainfall totals on Sunday are expected to remain below a tenth of an inch in locations which receive rainfall

-A better chance for widespread rainfall does look possible going into next weekend, but specifics remain low confidence

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

As of just after 12 AM CST (early Sunday morning), radar depicts light returns across southwestern Arkansas, but this is virga as the low levels of the atmosphere by analysis of the latest 00Z RAOB soundings from SHV and LZK remain well too dry within the lower levels of the atmosphere to support rain reaching the surface before evaporating.

A warm front sits positioned across southern Arkansas and isentropic ascent is leading to rain overrunning the boundary northward into Oklahoma and part of the ARK-LA-TEX region. However, this region of isentropic ascent is conflicting with a dry lower level of the atmosphere which will lead to diminished total rainfall amounts on Sunday for those locations across the Natural State lucky enough to experience rainfall.

In the upper lvls, ridging will be positioned over the state of Arkansas through mid-week. At the sfc, a large region of high pressure is progged to be positioned across the mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS. Temperatures overall through mid-week will gradually increase each day remaining near seasonal averages for this time of the year. Post Sunday, dry conditions are anticipated to return statewide for a few days as the combination of upper lvl ridging and surface high pressure will favor subsidence or sinking air.

Into late week, in the upper lvls, a shortwave trof will be noted within the flow pattern ejecting out of the Four Corners region of the CONUS into the Southern Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, the region of high pressure moves eastward and a cold front approaches the state from the west-northwest. The next best opportunity for widespread PoP chances across Arkansas is expected going into next weekend as a much more progressive upper lvl pattern approaches the state. At this point, specifics remain uncertain given this projected event is forecast to occur at the end of the forecast period. Temperatures over this period will trend upward to values above seasonal averages for this time of the year as southerly winds will advect a warmer and moisture-laden airmass into the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Quiet conditions will prevail across most of the state through the forecast period. Easterly flow will persist, with high clouds increasing in coverage early in the period, but clearing conditions late in the period across northern Arkansas. Lower ceilings and some rain could push in the vicinity at times for terminals in southwestern Arkansas Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 31 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 57 39 64 34 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 54 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 57 37 63 33 / 0 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 59 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 59 40 64 35 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 35 62 31 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 54 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 58 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 59 37 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 57 36 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 59 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 60 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.