textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

|Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s.

The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected.

Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday.

Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances.

Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period along with light/variable sfc winds. Isolated showers/storms will be possible through sunset, but coverage is expected to remain low across much of the state. Additional chances for precip will be possible across mainly northern AR terminals Thursday morning through the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 10 Camden AR 73 95 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 73 94 77 92 / 0 20 10 30 Hot Springs AR 74 96 77 95 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 96 78 96 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 75 95 77 95 / 10 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 74 94 77 93 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 72 93 76 91 / 0 30 10 30 Newport AR 74 96 78 96 / 0 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 74 96 77 96 / 10 20 0 0 Russellville AR 75 96 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 Searcy AR 73 96 77 96 / 10 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 75 96 78 96 / 10 20 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.