textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-Isolated showers and t'storm in SE AR Saturday morning

-Relatively pleasant day Saturday before feels like temps increase Sunday.

-Next round of strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A sfc wrmfrnt is pushing north out of the I-20 corridor early Sat morning. With it very humid air is being drawn north with observed dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s in Nrthrn LA. As this airmass propagates further north throughout the day a few isolated to scattered showers and maybe a stray t'storm can develop in the SE quadrant of AR. PWATs near 2 inches could support a heavier downpour or two, but relatively dry soil conditions should promote quick absorption of any rainfall. Sat afternoon into evening 2 separate MCSs will develop and congeal into 1 in NE and KS respectively before starting a ESE jog roughly to our northern border through the day Sunday.

Sunday humid conditions will return for all of the state, apparent temps exceeding 100 in the Arkansas River Valley will be possible under this soupy airmass. The approaching MCS will increase PoP chances in Nrthrn AR for a pop-up t'storm ahead of the mainline Sun afternoon. Recent CAM runs have the first push of the system more across Cntrl MO while laying an outflow boundary along its sthrn flank.

A further H500 shortwave moving along the jet will spark development along this outflow boundary Sun evening. SBCAPE >2000J/kg would provide plenty of instability along the boundary for storms. Near parallel storm motion and 0-3km shear vectors could promote a conditional QLCS type threat. However, the fly in the ointment with this system is the relatively saturated temp profile. Lack of evaporative cooling will inhibit any rear inflow jet development and a more traditional squall line. The more likely storm mode will be a cold pool driven line due to the saturated profiles, PWATS nearing 2in, and meager lapse rates. All of these variables additionally hint at a very heavy rain event. 6-hr QPF estimates range between 2-3" with locally higher amounts in Nrthn AR within this line.

To start next week temps should be slightly cooler due to the line of storms on Sun into Mon. Highs should be near normal in the 80s across the state. These will slowly creep up as well as Apparent Temps throughout the week. Throughout next week the H500 jet remains to our north. This will allow several shortwaves to approach the area. Combined with the very moist environment remaining in place until late next week will help drive chances for rain and afternoon t'storms for most of the week. Relief from the humidity will not be until closer to next weekend as a SFC High sets up over the great plains and turns our mean flow nrthly, bringing in some slightly drier and cooler continental air.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Recent radar noted convection ongoing acrs much of Srn AR early Sat mrng. Expect this activity to persist the next few hours, mainly impacting far SErn terminals w/ MVFR CIGs. Sat imgry depicted low to mid cloud covg over much of the Srn half of AR fm aforementioned convective activity. Expect intermittent MVFR CIGs acrs Srn terminals thru 17-18Z Sat aftn, before condns improve to VFR area-wide. Winds wl become Srly thru the day as a weak stalled frnt acrs Srn AR begins to move Nwrd.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 87 72 90 74 / 10 20 20 80 Camden AR 86 72 90 75 / 60 20 30 40 Harrison AR 85 70 87 70 / 30 20 30 90 Hot Springs AR 86 72 90 76 / 30 20 30 70 Little Rock AR 86 73 90 76 / 40 20 20 70 Monticello AR 85 73 90 76 / 70 20 50 40 Mount Ida AR 86 72 88 76 / 30 20 20 70 Mountain Home AR 85 70 87 70 / 20 20 30 90 Newport AR 88 72 91 75 / 20 20 20 80 Pine Bluff AR 85 72 90 76 / 50 20 30 60 Russellville AR 88 73 91 76 / 20 20 20 90 Searcy AR 87 71 91 75 / 30 20 20 70 Stuttgart AR 86 74 90 77 / 60 10 20 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.