textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

-Precipitation chances central to north Arkansas this morning...with drier conditions expected later today

-Stalled front will keep a wide range of temperatures today

-Pattern shift will create potential for a much more active pattern for the next week or more

-Potential for several rounds of rainfall...with the threat for heavy rainfall increasing over time

-Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms also increasing during the next week...but details on days/locations of best potential remain uncertain

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The cold front has settled across portions of the CWA early this Mon morning...draped from south of PBF to south of ADF...to south of FSM. A weak upper disturbance is passing ESE over NRN sections of the state...which is causing the scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA over NRN sections of the state. The upper disturbance will shift east of the sate by later this morning...with the potential for convection slowly decreasing by mid/late morning.

The SFC frontal boundary looks to remain nearly stationary into this Mon afternoon/evening...with the chances for precip generally low with no upper waves passing overhead. This will create a significant range in temps for this this Mon...with temps ranging from the low/mid 50s across NRN/NERN sections...to the upper 70s to low 80s across the south. Near the SFC boundary will see increased potential for temps to vary from the forecast as any movement north/south can keep temps cool...or warm several deg.

By later this evening and overnight...flow aloft will become more zonal initially...with a new weak wave moving over the state. The SFC boundary will then start to lift north...with some increased POPs for NRN/NWRN sections as this front moves north. By the daylight hrs on Tue...flow aloft will transition further to be a more NWRLY direction. The SFC front will lift north of AR as this happens...and SRLY flow across the state will increase. Temps statewide will warm well above normal as a result...with highs for most areas in the 70s to low 80s. The forecast looks to remain generally dry during this period...even as moisture levels increase across the region.

SW flow aloft will intensify late Tue into Wed as an upper shortwave approaches from the central Plains. This shortwave will be the start of a much more active pattern...which looks to bring many rounds of precip to the region...and possibly opportunities for strong/SVR convection.

The first wave of organized precip may start on Wed afternoon into Thu as the aforementioned upper shortwave lifts ENE from KS into MO...with a SFC front dropping SE into NWRN sections of the state. This front will then stall late Wed night/Thu morning before lifting back north late Thu. SHRA/TSRA will become likely along/ahead of this front Wed afternoon through Thu morning. Some areas of heavy rainfall may be seen...along with maybe a few strong/SVR TSRA. There still remains some uncertainty on how far the front moves SE into the state...and how far south the upper energy will extend. Both these situations will dictate where the heaviest rainfall will fall...and also where the best focus for any strong/SVR convection will exist. Currently...latest data suggests a limited window of strong/SVR convection...mainly due to limited instability given the timing of the upper energy passing over the region during the overnight period. However...if the upper wave were to be stronger...and shift south some...this may overcome some of the lack of instability. These details will need to be worked out in the next few days to see if there will be impactful strong/SVR Wx with this round.

While there will be a break in the precip potential Thu into Fri... additional rounds of convection look possible later in the week through the weekend as more upper disturbances pass over the region in the SW flow aloft and the SFC boundary meanders around. Many questions arise however on details this far out in time...such as where the SFC boundary may end up...and timing of individual waves. Will continue to see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed to see where the heaviest rainfall will occur...and if/when any organized strong/SVR convection may be seen.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The regions of degraded flight category will be across northern Arkansas including the sites of KHRO and KBPK where flight category will lower to as low as LIFR for reduced VSBY and CIGS which will remain through midday on Tuesday before improving to VFR. Across the central site of KLIT and western sites of KHOT and KADF will experience lowered CIGS and VSBY to as low as MVFR for the early Tuesday morning timeframe before returning to VFR. Expect surface winds to gust in excess of 22 knots across northern, western, and central sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 47 77 60 77 / 10 10 10 40 Camden AR 55 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 49 78 60 75 / 20 10 30 70 Hot Springs AR 54 79 60 79 / 10 10 10 30 Little Rock AR 51 79 60 80 / 10 0 10 20 Monticello AR 56 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 54 78 60 78 / 10 10 20 40 Mountain Home AR 46 78 58 76 / 20 10 30 60 Newport AR 49 77 60 78 / 20 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 50 80 60 79 / 10 10 20 40 Searcy AR 47 78 58 79 / 10 0 10 30 Stuttgart AR 52 78 61 80 / 0 0 10 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.