textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

-A few rounds of scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday morning and Monday evening over northern to central Arkansas

-Area temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees, with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees Monday afternoon

-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast through the latter half of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Recent mosaic radar imgry depicted a convective complex moving Ewrd thru SErn kS, w/ additional development ongoing acrs Cntrl MO. Radar trends, and 00Z CAM guidance suggest this activity could move into Nrn AR near 12Z Mon mrng, and pose some isolated severe threat, primarily for hail and damaging winds.

An additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast acrs portions of Nrn to Cntrl AR Mon aftn to evng. NWrly H500 flow wl incrs in magnitude acrs the Mid-South as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US troughing. Short term guidance has been consistent the past few days w/ depictions of cold pool development along an axis of MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25 to 30 knots. 00Z CAM guidance and HREF mean output suggest clusters of storms developing b/w 21-00Z acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR. Marginal shear profiles will support cold pool consolidation and possibly a window of MCS maintenance Swrd into Cntrl AR thru late Mon evng.

An initial and downstream environment characterized by favorable low- level thermal profiles (Td depressions > 10C), mid-level dry air, and low-level Theta-E differences > 30C wl be supportive of damaging wind gusts where any bow echoes develop.

Regarding placement of severe weather, CAM guidance has not been consistent w/ CI, and has been struggling w/ handling ongoing convection acrs SErn KS and Cntrl MO. It is important to note that timing and placement of CI over Nrn AR Mon aftn wl be impacted and lkly driven by any residual outflow boundaries fm aforementioned convection, assuming it moves SEwrd into the Mid-South later Mon mrng. This may also help determine the Ewrd extent of activity Mon aftn, depending on the magnitude of any residual outflow.

In addition to aftn thunderstorm chances, area temps are fcst to reach the low 90s over much of Cntrl to Srn AR, alongside dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Aftn heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees or more acrs portions of AR, largely in the AR River Valley and Ern Cntrl AR, and WBGT temps in excess of 85 to 88 degrees. For Jun 1, these fcst values correspond to widespread moderate heat risk over much of the FA.

Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much- anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal activity.

By Fri and into next weekend, sfc high pressure wl shift Ewrd, w/ weak SWrly H500 flow returning to the Cntrl US. As sfc flow becomes Srly again, low level moisture and area precip chances wl increase over the FA thru the end of the PD.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mixed MVFR to VFR condns were ongoing acrs the FA, including some patchy fog. Condns should improve to VFR levels by near 15Z Mon mrng, w/ mainly diurnal Cu expected thru this aftn. There is low to medium confidence on TSRA development acrs Nrn AR near 01/22Z-02/00Z. Have kept PROB30 mentions at area terminals Mon aftn to evng, and wl continue to monitor for convective impacts w/in the next TAF update.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 69 81 58 / 50 40 10 0 Camden AR 95 71 88 64 / 10 50 10 0 Harrison AR 88 67 80 56 / 30 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 94 72 85 63 / 20 40 10 0 Little Rock AR 93 70 82 62 / 20 50 10 0 Monticello AR 95 72 86 65 / 10 50 10 0 Mount Ida AR 93 72 85 63 / 10 20 30 0 Mountain Home AR 88 67 80 57 / 50 10 0 0 Newport AR 92 69 82 60 / 60 50 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 71 84 63 / 20 40 10 0 Russellville AR 93 72 84 63 / 20 20 10 0 Searcy AR 93 69 82 59 / 20 40 10 0 Stuttgart AR 93 72 84 63 / 20 50 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.