textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- High-confidence of high-impact winter storm conditions are expected to take hold of the region beginning later tonight and persist through the weekend.

- All winter precip types are expected, with significant snowfall possible over the northern portion of the state, snow-sleet accumulations across central and southern Arkansas, and impactful ice accumulations over far southern to southeast Arkansas.

- Dangerously cold conditions will accompany winter weather through this weekend and into early next week, with sub-zero minimum wind chill values possible Saturday through Monday mornings.

- Hazardous travel conditions are expected across the state through the duration of this winter storm, and into next week, as multiple thaw and freeze cycles will unfold, resulting in slippery morning road conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Significant and High-Impact Winter Storm set to Impact Arkansas This Weekend...

High confidence exists for a high-impact winter storm over the Natural State, including major impacts from all precip types, and wl be accompanied by extreme cold. Upper level WV imgry this morning shows the Pacific semi-closed low moving across Srn CA and the Baja of CA vcty. Objective sfc analyses indicated a strong closed high of 1045 hPa over the Nrn Plains, w/ the leading edge of this Arctic high extending Swrd into the Srn Plains and Ozark Plateau. Thru the day today, this Arctic air wl continue to move Swrd into the fcst area.

Not much has changed w/ the latest fcst update, and still expect greatest snowfall totals acrs NWrn to Nrn Cntrl AR, mix of sleet and snow over much of Cntrl AR w/ intermittent freezing rain, and mostly sleet and freezing rain over Srn to SErn AR. The main factor that wl continue to be watched w/ scrutiny wl be the warm layer aloft, w/ most short term deterministic and ensemble guidance advertising the H850 0C line holding steady along and south of the Boston Mountains terrain footprint thru at least Sat night.

The current precip-type fcst reflects a mix of HREF and GFS/GEFS solns, w/ the consensus in the available short term guidance (we won't talk about the 00Z NAM...) trending towards GFS/GEFS guidance. The potential for mixed sleet and snow has been handled seemingly better based on fcst soundings and mid-level mass field guidance by the GFS/GEFS in the past 48 hours following the major shift north in higher snow totals (due to the strengthening warm layer aloft). That being said, the ECMWF does exhibit strengths in freezing rain potential where thermal profiles are much more favorable, and this continues to be the case for Srn to SErn AR and the greater ARKLAMISS region.

Timing

Expect the onset of precip over SWrn AR later this aftn, w/ covg of precip continuing to expand NEwrd into Cntrl AR by 00Z tonight. Expect mainly snow acrs Nrn AR overnight, w/ mixed precip including snow, sleet, and freezing rain over Cntrl to Srn AR.

Thru the day Sat, three regimes of precip-types wl lkly persist acrs the state, mostly hinging on the magnitude and depth of the warm layer aloft. 6 hour accumulation and liquid QPF progs suggest a lull in precip intensity Sat aftn to early evening, w/ a second bout of heavier precipitation resuming overnight Sat night. As this second bout of precip begins, colder air aloft wl begin to surge Swrd, and a full transition to snow wl spread SEwrd thru Sun mrng, before precip tapers off from west to east later Sun mrng.

Freezing Rain

The current freezing rain and ice forecast continued the trend of cutting back ice potential acrs Cntrl and even Nrn AR as suggested by NBM base guidance, and is actually better represented by NBM 5.0 guidance, where the greatest potential for significant ice accruals of a half inch or more exists over Srn to SErn AR, and lesser totals (generally less than a quarter inch) over Cntrl AR. Damage to infrastructure and vegetation is expected, and power outages are likely w/ just forecast verifying ice accruals, and more significant impacts arising under forecast exceeding amounts.

Probabilistic Freezing Rain Thresholds:

High confidence for at least a quarter to half inch of ice accumulation over the Srn third of the state (60-70%)

Medium confidence for at least three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation over the ARKLAMISS border region (40-50%)

Medium confidence for one inch of ice accumulation over the ARKLAMISS border region (30-40%)

Snowfall

For those in Nrn AR, snowfall remains the status quo, w/ only some intermittent mixed precip expected. Official forecast totals have not differed too much, w/ a swath of 6-10 inches favored over Nwrn to Nrn Cntrl AR, and possible high-end totals of 12 inches or more.

Snow totals have continued to decrease over Cntrl to Srn AR where sleet wl tend to be the primary precip-type. Latest official forecast totals indicate 2 to 5 inches.

Probabilistic Snowfall Thresholds:

High confidence for at least 4 inches over the Nrn two-thirds of the state (80-90%)

High confidence for at least 6 inches over the Nrn third of the state (80-90%)

Medium-High confidence for 8-12 inches or more over Nrn to NWrn AR (70-80%)

Hazardous Cold

Lastly, in addition to impactful winter wx, hazardous cold temperatures and wind chills wl accompany this event, w/ the coldest conditions expected Saturday thru Monday mornings. Low temperatures in the single digits to low teens wl be common across the state w/ wind chills reaching negative values thru this timeframe as well. Another factor to be considered that is not well represented in the current official forecast is the potential for sub-zero air temperatures where the greatest snowpack exists in the wake of winter precip. More details on hazardous cold wl be available as the winter wx forecast is dialed in, but hazardous and impactful conditions wl not cease after winter precip.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through at least Friday afternoon. Some intermittent MVFR ceilings across the central and southern terminals is possible mainly during the overnight hours tonight, but generally ceilings in this region anticipated to hover in the 4-6 kft range through at least Friday afternoon. Late in the period, precipitation chances and lowering ceilings increase from west to east, but kept VCSH prevailaing after 00z for time being.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 32 10 16 11 / 0 100 100 100 Camden AR 43 17 22 13 / 30 80 100 100 Harrison AR 28 8 15 6 / 10 100 100 100 Hot Springs AR 38 13 19 12 / 20 100 100 100 Little Rock AR 37 13 17 13 / 20 100 100 100 Monticello AR 44 22 25 18 / 20 80 100 100 Mount Ida AR 40 14 21 11 / 30 100 100 100 Mountain Home AR 29 7 15 8 / 10 100 100 100 Newport AR 31 11 16 13 / 0 90 100 100 Pine Bluff AR 39 15 20 14 / 20 90 100 100 Russellville AR 38 14 20 12 / 10 100 100 100 Searcy AR 34 10 16 11 / 10 100 100 100 Stuttgart AR 35 14 18 14 / 10 90 100 100

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.