textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

-The airmass behind the front will be cold leading to the likely need for frost and possibly freeze products for portions of the state during the early morning hours on Sunday and Monday

-A warming trend with respect to both low and temperatures will be noted transitioning from the beginning to the middle of the upcoming workweek.

-Little to no rainfall is expected through the end of next week likely lead to worsening drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Satellite early this afternoon shows the persistant low stratus deck dissipating. Temperatures early this afternoon 50s in northern Arkansas to 60s in central part of the state and lower 70s in south Arkansas. Latest deterministic guidance shows cooler and drier air will continue to filter south into the state through the weekend. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s in far northern Arkansas with 40s elsewhere with light and variable winds. As we head into Saturday, high pressure over the midwest will begin to slide south toward the state with near normal temperatures, light north to northeast winds, and dry weather prevailing.

By Sunday, high pressure will slide to the east allowing winds to veer to the south and southwest sometime early next week across the state allowing above normal temperatures to return. Low temperatures on Sunday morning across parts of far northern and northeast Arkansas will be at or near freezing with a few of the known cold spots getting a few degrees below freezing. This may bring some frost to higher elevation areas. At this time, elected not to issue frost or freeze parts in aforementioned areas, but may be needed if trends continue.

Around the middle of next week, an upper trough and cut off low currently entering the Desert Southwest continue to strengthen and dig southward into northern Mexico this weekend. The upper trough will push east into central Texas on Monday. Model guidance diverges on a solution for the approaching upper trough and cut off low during the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe. The GFS solution has the ridge of high pressure over the mid south allowing winds to veer south to southwest allowing some subtle moisture return back into the state. The ECMWF solution shows high pressure over central and southern Plains which would keep light north and northeast winds across the state with no moisture return. In either case, with little to no moisture to work on Tuesday, little to no rainfall is expected as the cut off low dissipates and the upper trough swings across the state.

For the latter part of the week, high pressure will build across parts of the western and central US. This will put the state in northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. A look a longer term ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates an appreciable shot of cold air on the horizon which could lead to frost and freeze products for a large portion of the state.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail the the afternoon hours across northern terminals, lifting briefly before building back in around midnight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will persist through the entire forecast period with light north to northeast winds with a few afternoon breezes possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 38 60 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 41 68 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 38 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 41 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 43 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 43 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 36 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 38 58 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 39 60 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 40 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 40 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 39 62 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 42 63 36 68 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.