textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Limited chances for convection remain across NRN/NERN sections early this evening

- Rain chances end Sunday as upper level high pressure begins to build over the mid south.

- Hot and humid conditions return to the forecast area with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees in many areas. Heat related headlines may be needed as early as Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 528 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Most precip has moved east of the area early in the afternoon hrs. While additional convection may still be possible...best chances look to remain outside the area.

Afternoon forecast was also updated to include heat headlines for the next few days given the increasing potential for hot/humid conditions into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Latest surface analysis places a nearly stationary boundary from north central Oklahoma through central Missouri and then ENE to New England. Strong thunderstorms did develop along this boundary Friday night in a very moist and unstable environment with ongoing convection continuing over central OK and to a lesser extent far NE OK/far NW AR.

CAMS guidance continues move some stronger storms into the FA through this morning as a weak shortwave trough approaches. These same CAMS models end or decrease the precipitation by mid morning only to have redevelopment over NE AR this afternoon as a remnant MCV moves through. Severe weather threat looks marginal and confined once again to the AR/MO border. FFG remains low across the north and locally heavy rain leading to some flooding may be the larger concern today as the aforementioned boundary finally begins to lift to the north as a warm front. Thinking right now is to let the flash flood watch expire as scheduled but may need to pivot if trends dictate.

Meanwhile, a fairly deep H5 trough will continue to dig over the Pacific NW resulting in downstream ridging and increasing heights over the mid south. This pattern change will result in a return to very warm and humid conditions with little if any rain chances beyond today due to large scale subsidence with the ridge building overhead.

No heat related headlines are planned for today with the possibility of convection, cloud cover and very spotty areas where criteria is met. Even the 90th percentile of the HREF keeps almost all the FA out of heat criteria today. However, heat headlines will likely be needed from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Guidance continues to indicate some areas could reach extreme heat warning criteria with a real possibility of overnight lows remaining at or above 80 degrees. Wednesday through Friday appear to be most critical days with the Delta region and the Arkansas river Valley possibly exceeding heat index values of 110 degrees.

Long range guidance still suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region beyond the end of next week, prolonging the period of dangerous heat anticipated to reside over AR. Models do try to wrap some moisture around the southern periphery of the upper high late in the period but a wait and see approach will be taken this far out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. While there is still an outside chance for some convection across NERN sections...any precip that does develop should remain east of the NRN terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 88 76 93 76 / 30 10 0 0 Camden AR 94 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 84 74 89 75 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 92 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 93 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 93 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 88 76 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 83 73 90 74 / 70 10 0 0 Newport AR 88 76 94 76 / 30 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 92 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 90 76 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 92 78 94 77 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ007- 008-016-017-025-031-039-044>046-056-057-064-065-069-121-122-130- 138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ024- 123-223.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ032>034-047.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for ARZ032>034-047.