textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly southern and central Arkansas.

- Widespread severe weather is not expected but some stronger storms could produce gusty winds.

- Temperatures will be seasonably warm through Wednesday before starting to climb once again.

- Heat advisories may be needed Thursday for the Delta counties and the Arkansas River Valley if current trends hold.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet conditions are noted over the FA this morning with generally clear skies and a little patchy ground fog in the usual areas. Expect the fog to become a little more widespread as daybreak approaches with T/TD spreads on the smaller side this morning. Temperatures remain mild to warm with most observation stations showing readings from the lower to mid 70s.

Pattern remains quite amplified this morning with ridging over the Rockies/central plains and subsequently, a positively tilted trough extending from the lower Great Lakes through the FA and into NE TX. Embedded in this trough is a vorticity maximum currently sitting along the AR/MO border. Guidance is consistent in moving this feature slowly to the south and east through the day and into Tuesday.

This feature will help to fire off diurnally driven convection primarily over central/southern Arkansas. CAMS guidance is showing generally weak shear but instability climbs to or exceeds 2500 J/KG with gusty winds the primary concern from any stronger storms.

Convection looks to get going near the vort max by mid afternoon and spreading to the southeast as the feature drifts that way. Activity looks to quickly diminish Monday evening with the loss of heating but returns Tuesday, but not as widespread as what will be seen today.

Trough finally does move off to the east on Wednesday w/ convection chances decreasing significantly. Flat upper ridge tries to move back in Thursday and beyond with temperatures increasing once again. Some guidance is showing ridging increasing more very late in the period and into the middle of next week.

Precip chances decrease more so as the the aforementioned ridging tries to return but diurnally driven convection can never really be completely ruled out. Temperatures will be seasonable today and Tuesday before climbing Wednesday and beyond. Heat indices are not expected to reach advisory criteria through Wednesday so headlines will not be necessary. However, staring Thursday, heat advisories may be needed once again over the delta and in parts of the Arkansas River Valley.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Some patchy fog is possible early this morning but should dissipatequickly. Additional isolated to widely scattered convection may develop late this morning with the best chances across central sections of the state Mon afternoon. Widespread VFR conditions will prevail except for brief MVFR conditions if fog does develop. Winds will generally average under 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 89 70 87 71 / 30 20 40 20 Camden AR 91 70 88 71 / 30 40 40 30 Harrison AR 85 68 84 68 / 20 10 40 10 Hot Springs AR 92 70 90 71 / 40 30 50 20 Little Rock AR 91 72 89 73 / 30 20 50 10 Monticello AR 92 72 90 72 / 30 40 50 30 Mount Ida AR 90 69 88 70 / 40 20 50 10 Mountain Home AR 85 69 84 69 / 20 10 40 10 Newport AR 89 71 89 72 / 20 20 40 20 Pine Bluff AR 90 71 88 71 / 20 30 50 10 Russellville AR 91 72 89 72 / 40 20 40 10 Searcy AR 90 70 89 71 / 20 20 50 20 Stuttgart AR 90 72 88 73 / 20 10 50 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.