textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

-Gusty southwest winds and dry afternoon conditions will yield elevated fire weather conditions across portions of west, northwest, and north central Arkansas this afternoon

-Above normal afternoon temperatures will persist through remainder of the work week

-Rain chances will be possible over the eastern half of Arkansas Wednesday night through Thursday, but unimpactful rainfall amounts are expected

-Dry and settled weather will persist through the weekend, with some rain chances possible again by early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Recent nighttime sat imgry depicted high cirrus streaming SEwrd acrs the state, asctd w/ strong NWrly H500 flow over the Cntrl Plains. At the sfc, broad sfc high pressure remains settled over the Srn Cntrl US and Mid-South vcty.

Through the next 24 hrs, sfc lee cyclogenesis is expected over the OK/TX panhandle, resulting in a steepening sfc pressure gradient over the Ozark Plateau. Strong SWrly sfc flow is forecast, w/ pt fcst soundings indicating moderate BL mixing and downward momentum transfer Tues aftn acrs NWrn to Nrn AR. Current fcst winds and gusts reflect a blended solution towards 90th percentile values, and correspondingly 10th percentile sfc dewpoint values. As such, strong aftn mixing should yield min RH values near 20 percent or less, and when coupled w/ 10 hour fuel moistures near or less than 10 percent, an elevated fire danger wl arise over portions of Wrn, NWrn, and N Cntrl AR Tues aftn.

Thru Tues night and into Wed, moisture return wl resume under persistent SWrly flow. Some Chc PoPs appear possible over portions of Ern AR overnight Wed as a low amplitude shortwave navigates thru mean NWrly H500 flow, though current QPF progs are not very optimistic in terms of beneficial rainfall.

Under mean SWrly sfc flow, temps thru the week wl be moderating towards daily above normal values, e.g., +10-15F temp departures at most locations. Otherwise, thru the end of the week, ensemble mean guidance does not depict an optimistic solution for rainfall chances over the FA. Mean NWrly H500 flow is expected, along w/ a strong sfc high moving Ewrd acrs the Nrn Tier and into the Great Lakes region. Along the Srn periphery of this sfc high, a cdfrnt is progged to wash out over the Natural State on Sun.

Several uncertainties remain w/ the long term pattern, particularly concerning the evolution of this frnt, as is shown through ensemble mean IQRs for max/min temps near 15-20F into early next week. This wl also have implications on PoPs and possible rainfall amounts into early next week for the Nrn half of AR, which for now, are unimpactful, w/ higher QPF totals currently centered over Srn MO.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR Conditions to continue to persist during the day Tuesday. Southerly gusty winds to transition to stronger gustier SW winds early Tuesday afternoon. With the wind shift LLWS will persist throught most of the overnight at all terminals across the area. Wednesday morning around sunrise LLWS will subside and CIGs will begin to decrease. MVFR CIGs are likely to set in by mid day Wednesday at all terminals except HRO and BPK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 44 69 48 / 0 0 0 30 Camden AR 65 47 76 56 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 63 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 20 Hot Springs AR 64 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 62 47 72 52 / 0 0 0 20 Monticello AR 63 49 75 57 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 65 47 74 52 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 62 42 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 58 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 30 Pine Bluff AR 62 47 74 55 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 64 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 60 42 70 49 / 0 0 0 30 Stuttgart AR 59 47 69 55 / 0 0 10 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.