textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

-Record setting warmth continuing through the rest of the week and extending into this weekend

-Rain chances increasing late weekend, with much cooler temperatures settling into the region through early next week

-Temperatures moderating towards normal levels by the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Abnormally warm temperatures will continue through Christmas Day and beyond as a historically strong ridge climatologicalspeaking for this time of year continues to strengthen over central CONUS. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to range from the mid to upper 70s today and tomorrow, with even warmer temperatures into the 80s possible Friday and Saturday. Not surprisingly, daily high temperature records across the state will be challenged through Saturday.

A pattern change is set for Sunday as a much colder polar airmass surges southward across the eastern half of CONUS. The low center is currently pegged to track over the Great Lakes region, but a frontal band extending southwestward will bring increasing rain chances for Sunday. Based on previous model guidance, this upper level trough progression continues to slow, resulting in the current forecast warming on Sunday as highs still remain in the 70s as the frontal passage is timing-wise more for the evening to overnight hours Sunday into Monday. Better moisture return is trending further north which would indicate higher rain chances and amounts across the state, which is currently reflected in the forecast where PoP's are up to the 50-80% range and amounts up to one half inch.

Much colder temperatures back to below normal levels by up to 10 degrees will then linger across the state through the early portions of the week after the frontal passage. The weather pattern will then gradually modify as strong northwesterly flow aloft persists through the middle of next week before modifying into more zonal flow with gradual warming going through the end of next week.

The main uncertainties heading into the middle to latter portions of next week will be the progression of the cutoff Pacific low that'll linger for several days next week. This will impact the timing of the next precipitation chances and temperature trends, which currently may be delayed until the weekend of Jan 3-4.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Mix of VFR/MVFR conditions are expected initially, becoming mainly MVFR/IFR with decreasing VIS and possibly low-stratus CIGs by sunrise. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Conds should improve by 15/16z as FG dissipates and CIGs heights increase. SW winds between 10-25 kts are possible on Thursday, especially during the early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 62 81 57 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 77 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 79 63 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 77 62 80 60 / 0 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 61 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 78 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 78 64 81 61 / 0 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 78 59 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 78 63 79 58 / 0 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 77 61 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 80 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 76 60 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 77 61 79 60 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.