textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

-High temperatures Friday through Sunday will likely be 20 to 25+ degrees above average with multiple records tied or broken across the state this weekend.

-A dry cold front which is expected to move from north to south across Arkansas on Sunday Night into Monday will briefly bring temperatures to near normal values early next week.

-Drought conditions will persist through the period with dry conditions expected through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Satellite early this morning shows northwest flow aloft continuing over the state as a highly amplitude ridge continues to have a firm gripe over the western US with a long wave trough over the eastern coast. At the surface, light and variable winds overnight will turn to the south/southwest later this morning as high pressure over the southern US is expect to shift toward the Carolinas later today. Temperatures this afternoon will average 10 to 15+ above normal for afternoon highs across the state. There will likely that multiple locations will tie or break records for afternoon high temperatures across the state.

A look at both deterministic and ensemble model members show the amplified ridge over the western US will stay in place through at least the weekend before flatting out. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF on Friday show H850 temperatures on Friday 16-18C range, 16-18C via the GFS vs ECMWF which shows 18-20C on Saturday,and 18-20C per the GFS vs 20-22C by the ECMWF on Sunday. The H850 temperatures are within the upper bound per SPC sounding climatology page for each day. NBM probabilities of reaching 85 degrees or above at 60-75% over the Arkansas river valley on Friday, then expanding to eastward across a large part of the state with NBM probabilities over 70% or higher over all areas except parts of east and northeast Arkansas where percentages are 20% or less.

By Sunday, the NBM is over 80% for all areas except for parts of northeast Arkansas, in which percentages will generally be in the 30-40% range. A look at NBM probabilities for temperatures 90 degrees or above for Saturday across the Arkansas river valley in the 40-60% range with the Little Rock metro at 11% on Saturday. On Sunday, NBM probabilities expand to parts of northern Arkansas except for the highest elevations with percentages 40-70% in northern Arkansas and 45-75% range across the Arkansas river valley. The NBM probability to reach 90 per this cycle on Sunday sits at 25% Nonetheless, this weekend multiple records across the state will likely be broken and in some cases by 5 degrees or more as temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 20-25 degree above normal for afternoon highs for this time of the year.

By Sunday night, a cold front will dive southeast out of central plains into the state. The front is expected to push across the state Sunday night into Monday morning bringing a shot of cooler and drier air to the state. High pressure will dive south of the central plains by Monday, then push into the Ohio valley by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds on Monday will veer to the southwest by Tuesday. Temperatures behind the front will still hover closer to normal before moderate to well above normal again by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds are expected to become mostly light and variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 56 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 54 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 56 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 54 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 55 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 56 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 54 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 53 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 55 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 55 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 54 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 52 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 55 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.