textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

-Very dry air remains and will keep the wild fire threat elevated again this Tuesday.

-Warming and some increased moisture will be seen by mid- week with some rainfall returning to the forecast Wednesday.

-A storm system is expected to move through the region late this week and into the weekend. Confidence continues to increase that this system could bring some widespread wintry precipitation to the state.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

To begin the period, calm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday as surface high pressure takes control of the weather pattern. The frontal boundary that moved through yesterday has ushered in drier air meaning min RH values Tuesday afternoon are forecast to drop into the 20s. With surface winds out of the south around 5-10 mph and gusts slightly higher...an elevated wild fire danger will once again be possible Tuesday afternoon.

The pattern will begin to break down again late Tuesday into Wednesday as another disturbance is expected to track across the state. This will bring increased rain chances across portions of central and southern Arkansas. With that said, a complete washout is not expected and rainfall totals are expected to stay below half an inch. Highest rainfall amounts on Wednesday will likely be across southern Arkansas.

Another period of calm weather is expected Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes away from the state. This will once again be short- lived as the next storm system will affect the state Friday into Sunday, bringing the chance for widespread winter weather.

Model guidance continues to suggest accumulating snow and/or freezing rain are possible across much of the state Friday through early Sunday. This along with plummeting temperatures could create hazardous road conditions this weekend and into early next week. While it is still too early to pin-point exact snowfall totals right now, one thing is for sure...the ingredients and model data trends supports the idea of a winter storm affecting much of the state later this week.

With that said, models continue to diverge some on exact timing and precip type for parts of the state so forecast details are still likely to change over the next couple of days. However, now could be a great time to start preparing for wintry precip later this week as it continues to look more and more likely for the state.

Temperatures will continue to be average to slightly below average early in the period with highs in the lower 40s to upper 50s and overnight lows dropping into the lower 20s to upper 30s.

As we transition to Friday and the weekend...temperatures are currently forecast to become dangerously cold as cold air from Canada pushes south Friday and lingers into early next week. This will be in conjunction with the moisture associated with the weather system meaning the cold air could be in place as the moisture tracks across the state. All this to say, if the snow falls as currently forecasted there could be a period between Friday to Monday afternoon where many locations around the state struggle to get above freezing at all. Even overnight temperatures could drop into the single digit and teens.

However, nothing is set and forecast details could continue to change has updated data continue to arrive. Please check back over the next few days for the latest and most up-to-date information.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail during the first half of the forecast period. After 09z, MVFR ceilings will prevail, with IFR ceilings expected to develop across the southeast 1/3 of the forecast area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conds are expected overnight with CIGs becoming MVFR on Wed as SHRA/RA move across the state. Best chance PoPs will be over Cntrl and SE half of AR. Srly winds will become W/NW in the afternoon and evening Wed. Wind shear was mentioned at all locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 31 54 28 / 0 50 60 0 Camden AR 51 35 53 40 / 0 30 90 40 Harrison AR 48 31 52 26 / 0 30 10 0 Hot Springs AR 48 34 54 35 / 0 50 80 10 Little Rock AR 47 33 52 33 / 0 40 80 10 Monticello AR 50 38 52 42 / 0 10 90 50 Mount Ida AR 50 35 56 34 / 0 50 70 10 Mountain Home AR 47 29 53 25 / 0 30 20 0 Newport AR 43 30 52 30 / 0 50 70 10 Pine Bluff AR 49 34 51 37 / 0 20 90 30 Russellville AR 48 32 55 29 / 0 50 50 0 Searcy AR 45 28 52 28 / 0 50 70 10 Stuttgart AR 45 33 50 36 / 0 30 90 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057- 062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.