textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

-Chances for showers/thunderstorms remains for western into northwest sections through the morning hours

-Drier later this afternoon into early Thursday

-Better chances for more organized convection later Thursday into midday Friday

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Most of the convection has moved SE of the state early this Wed morning...with mostly dry conditions ongoing. However...the main SFC boundary remains west/NW of the state where the lower dewpts are noted. An upper wave was drifting into the state early this morning...with some new convection developing along the AR/OK border near/south of FSM just ahead of the main SFC boundary. Expect some additional convection to continue to develop in this same region ...and areas just north into the morning hrs. Coverage of convection looks to decrease by later this morning into the afternoon hrs as the upper wave moves east of AR...and upper ridging develops overhead. However...keep some mention of convection for central/SRN sections late this afternoon into the evening hrs as the SFC front/dewpt boundary drops further south into the state.

POPs will increase back north on Thu into Fri as the SFC front lifts back north as a warm front. A new upper shortwave will also lift NE over the region around this same timeframe...aiding in providing lift for more organized/widespread convection Thu night/Fri morning. While the threat for seeing SVR Wx remains low at this time...mainly due to timing of the Thu night/Fri system...there may still be an isolated strong/SVR TSRA during this time frame. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

MVFR/IFR will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. Some brief periods of LIFR and patchy fog are possible across southern terminals overnight, but confidence is too to place in TAFs at this time. Light winds will persist and be out of the northeast through the rest of today, then light and variable before veering to the southeast on Thursday. Ceilings will gradually rise on Thursday afternoon but likely remain in the MVFR category.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 59 78 63 78 / 10 10 80 80 Camden AR 64 81 64 81 / 10 40 90 70 Harrison AR 57 74 61 75 / 10 40 70 80 Hot Springs AR 62 79 64 80 / 20 30 100 60 Little Rock AR 62 79 64 79 / 20 20 60 70 Monticello AR 65 81 66 81 / 20 30 80 80 Mount Ida AR 63 77 64 79 / 10 50 90 50 Mountain Home AR 57 75 61 75 / 10 20 80 80 Newport AR 60 79 63 79 / 0 10 80 80 Pine Bluff AR 63 81 65 81 / 20 40 70 70 Russellville AR 62 79 63 79 / 20 30 60 80 Searcy AR 59 79 62 79 / 10 10 70 80 Stuttgart AR 63 80 66 80 / 10 20 90 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.