textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 209 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

-Below normal temperatures and abnormally dry conditions continuing today

-Warming conditions through the middle of the week to well above normal levels, with elevated fire weather conditions possible again on Tuesday as winds strengthen

-A transition to more unsettled weather favored late in the week, with precipitation chances increasing in the Thursday to Friday timeframe

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Clear skies continue to dominate across the region as surface high pressure continues to build. Very dry air remains in place, however the high center will move over the state today, weakening the winds, and thus limiting any fire weather concerns. As this surface high moves easy by tomorrow, southwesterly winds will strengthen, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. At this time, no critical fire weather conditions are anticipated, as this southwesterly flow will cause dew points to rise throughout the day, coupled with some increasing cloud coverage that would inhibit warmer temperatures and stronger winds aloft (~30 knots at 900 mb) reaching the surface.

Warming temperatures to well above normals with highs in the 60s and 70s will continue through Thursday. Negative height anomalies in association with a shortwave troughing feature will amplify across the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing increasing precipitation chances to the region Thursday into Friday. Guidance continues to show surface low deepening east of the state, so the enhanced precipitation axis remains to the east. Some slight westward shifting, particularly from the ECMWF ensembles, is noted, which would be more favorable for higher rain amounts. At this time, even the most likely scenario would only result in measurable rainfall across central to eastern Arkansas, generally 0.10"-0.25" at this time.

Advancing forward late this week, the mid-week troughing will eject to the east, with mostly zonal flow persisting into and through this weekend. The polar jet will remain well to the north, but an enhanced jet from a Pacific longwave trough could aid in unsettled weather late this weekend. However, there remains quite a bit of spread amongst the models, with NBM interquartile ranges capturing this best, where there's 20-25 degree spreads for high temperatures starting Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure keep calm and dry conditions around. With that said, calmer winds today will likely become gusty southwest winds late in the period on Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 43 26 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 52 28 64 47 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 43 26 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 51 28 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 47 28 62 46 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 47 28 62 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 52 28 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 25 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 41 26 57 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 46 26 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 51 27 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 44 23 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 43 27 59 46 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.