textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

-Rain and thunderstorms expected through Saturday across the state, greatest rainfall across west to northwest Arkansas

-Return to normal temps behind a cold front into next week

-Elevated Fire danger into the beginning of next week

-Dry weather prevails through first half of next week, with rain chances returning by end of week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Recent observed radar depicted a large MCS moving acrs Ern OK, aprchg NW to Wrn AR. MRMS rainfall estimates acrs Srn Cntrl OK where the back building portion of this MCS was located indicated 1.5 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates. Short term guidance indicates this line should transition fm a fast forward propagating MCS to a slower training line (line movement becomes parallel to line orientation, and largely parallel to an H850 LLJ). NSSL WoFS guidance suggests a favorable environment to be in place acrs Wrn AR by 06Z ahead of the MCS for excessive rainfall, e.g., MUCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear of 30 kts, which will continue to support MCS maintenance thru the overnight PD. Last few runs of HRRR/RAP fcst soundings acrs Wrn AR also indicate a favorable heavy rainfall environment, e.g., PWATs > 1.5 in, and thermal profiles conducive for efficient warm rain processes.

Thru the overnight PD, widespread rainfall and thunderstorms is expected over the NWrn half of the state, w/ greatest excessive rainfall potential lying over Wrn AR, and possibly portions of the AR River Valley. High-end model solns suggest bands of 3 to 4 inches may be possible thru mid-morning Sat. An isolated flash flooding risk may arise Where rainfall rates are most excessive in the short term, particularly over more significant topography, but antecedent drought conditions and greening vegetation acrs the state may mitigate a more widespread flooding concern.

Thru the remainder of Sat, the aforementioned MCS should continue to move Ewrd across the state, in accordance with a cdfrnt moving thru the Midwest. The line wl lkly reach the ARKLAMISS region b/w 21-00Z Sat evening, w/ precip tapering off behind the frnt promptly Sat aftn.

Sun and thru at least mid-week, Wrn US H500 ridging wl amplify, w/ NWrly flow persisting over the Cntrl US. As such, sfc high pressure wl meander fm the Cntrl Plains to the Midwest thru the first half of next week, w/ settled and drier weather prevailing, and temperatures returning to more seasonal values acrs the FA.

By mid-week and thru the end of the PD, the aforementioned ridging is progged to weaken, w/ mean troughing returning over the Wrn to Cntrl US, as advertised by EPS/GEFS solns, signaling a return of unsettled weather to the Srn Cntrl US.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Expect lowering flight category due to as low as MVFR to IFR as a cold front sweeps across Arkansas from northwest to southeast throughout the forecast period which will lead to degraded CIGS and VSBY. A period of TSRA followed by RA will be likely across all sites beginning early Saturday morning and lasting well into the day on Saturday across the southeastern terminals. Expect a wind-shift that will take place along with the cold front passage from a southerly wind becoming a north to north-northwesterly wind. Expect surface winds to gust in excess of 30 knots across all sites as a line of storms are expected to sweep along the state with the cold front. All sites will return to VFR flight category by early Saturday afternoon across northern sites, Saturday evening across the western sites and central sites, and late Saturday evening across southeastern terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 44 68 43 / 100 10 0 0 Camden AR 74 45 69 44 / 90 30 0 0 Harrison AR 62 40 65 41 / 90 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 44 69 43 / 100 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 72 46 69 45 / 90 10 0 0 Monticello AR 77 49 69 46 / 100 60 0 0 Mount Ida AR 70 44 69 43 / 90 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 40 66 40 / 90 0 0 0 Newport AR 72 44 66 43 / 90 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 75 45 67 43 / 90 30 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 70 43 / 100 0 0 0 Searcy AR 72 44 69 42 / 90 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 74 46 66 44 / 100 30 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.