textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

-Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days.

-Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday.

-Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period.

-Some locally heavy rainfall is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column.

For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today.

That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state.

Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe.

Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend.

There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR condns wl prevail thru the overnight PD w/ some LLWS possible at Nrn to Cntrl terminals. Gusty Srly winds wl subside overnight, but resume near 10 to 15 kts w/ gusts in excess of 20 kts on Tues. A line of TSRA is expected to move into NW AR near 19/12Z, and move SE thru the FA thru the day Tues. Have based timing off of latest guidance, but some uncertainties still exist. Variable, convective winds may accompany TSRA as well, w/ MVFR CIGS/VISBYs accompanying TSRA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 86 66 75 / 10 70 60 70 Camden AR 73 90 67 82 / 10 80 60 90 Harrison AR 71 81 61 69 / 10 90 90 60 Hot Springs AR 74 85 66 79 / 10 90 60 80 Little Rock AR 72 88 66 79 / 10 70 60 80 Monticello AR 73 90 68 82 / 10 60 80 90 Mount Ida AR 75 82 67 79 / 10 90 60 80 Mountain Home AR 71 82 62 70 / 10 90 80 60 Newport AR 73 89 66 77 / 10 60 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 74 90 68 81 / 10 70 70 90 Russellville AR 72 84 66 78 / 10 90 70 80 Searcy AR 70 88 64 78 / 10 70 60 80 Stuttgart AR 74 90 69 80 / 10 70 70 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.