textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A strong winter storm will continue to bring significant impacts to the region this weekend, with significant snowfall possible over the northern portion of the state, snow-sleet accumulations across central and southern Arkansas, and impactful ice accumulations over far southern to southeast Arkansas.

- Dangerously cold conditions will accompany winter weather through this weekend and into early next week, with sub-zero minimum wind chill values possible Saturday through Monday mornings.

- Hazardous travel conditions are expected across the state through the duration of this winter storm, and into next week, as multiple thaw and freeze cycles will unfold, resulting in slippery morning road conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The well advertised major winter storm that is set to impact a large portion of the central to eastern U.S. has brought widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain conditions to the region over the last several hours. Latest model output continues to nudge the warm nose further north later today and into tonight, resulting in more areas that might experience some brief periods of precipitation phase changes during this general period across central to northern Arkansas, but overall amounts of each phase remain the same regardless of location. This first wave has begun, but there looks to be a brief window late this afternoon and evening where there will be little to no precip accumulating, prior to the second wave beginning overnight tonight and persisting into and through Sunday afternoon. An Extreme Cold Warning has been extended through Monday night, as latest guidance indicates the much colder Arctic air lingering a bit longer.

The following sections depict what to expect for different areas of the region into this upcoming week:

Northern Arkansas (Harrison, Mountain Home, Hardy, Batesville, and Mountain View):

Heavy snow has moved into to the region, and should be the primary mode of precipitation throughout the event. This current round of snow should bring around 4 to 6 inches of snow through this morning, with the second round this evening and through Sunday bringing an additional 4 to 8 inches, with highest amounts favoring higher terrain features like the Boston Mountains. Reasonable worst case scenario snowfall amounts continue to hover around 8-12 inches across lower elevations, and 12-15 inches for higher elevations.

For the second round, some portions of the region, especially the eastern counties of northern Arkansas, may see snow change over to sleet for a 6-12 hour period during the overnight hours tonight and into tomorrow morning prior to changing back over to snow as the much colder air aloft filters in on Sunday. Temperatures mostly in the teens to low 20s for highs and single digits to below zero through Monday is expected.

Central Arkansas (Little Rock, Russellville, Conway, Hot Springs, and Searcy):

Moderate to heavy snow and sleet have resulted in several inches of accumulations thus far early this morning. The snow/sleet line as of 2 am continues to hover just south of Little Rock when looking at the KLZK radar CC dual-pol product, with the 06z sounding from LZK depicting a warm nose that is right around or just above freezing aloft around 800 mb. With warmer air aloft anticipated to push into central Arkansas, currently expecting a changeover to sleet to occur from south to north over the next several hours for the entire region. This first round on the front end has resulted in snow for the northern portions (e.g. North Little Rock) and periods of freezing rain initially and now primarily sleet for the southern portions (e.g. Hot Springs), with the entire region receiving sleet later this morning and continuing through this afternoon. The second round will bring more sleet on the front end, with lower end chances of some freezing rain mixing in at times, favoring this evening and into the early overnight hours tonight. After tonight, with much colder air pushing in from the north, a changeover from sleet/freezing rain to snow is expected to occur tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours before dissipating by tomorrow evening.

The highest snow amounts seem to be favoring this first round, as there has been decent accumulations thus far, and based on radar and RAP model trends (e.g. higher QPF trends for the short term), this heavier snow/sleet may continue through the rest of the overnight hours. Thus, the 75th to 90th percentile outlook of up to 3 additional inches of snow/sleet may be the most reasonable expectation through the rest of the overnight hours. After 6 am, the lesser intensity sleet should be the primary mode through this afternoon. All of this to say, this first round could yield in excess of 4-6 inches of snow/sleet as a reasonable scenario at this point. The second round should bring an additional 2-4 inches of wintry mix accumulations, with higher amounts favoring northern areas, such as Conway.

High temperatures over the next few days will hover as cold as the teens today to the lower to mid-20s by Monday, with overnight lows dipping into the single digits to near zero, coldest on Sunday and Monday nights.

Southern Arkansas (Pine Bluff, Monticello, Arkadelphia, and Camden):

Much more widespread freezing rain areas have been observed up to this point across southern Arkansas. This will unfortunately pose the worst impacts as significant ice accumulations continue to be advertised, especially the far southeastern portions of the region. Locations such as Pine Bluff and Camden have seen the bulk of precipitation up to one tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent thus far (mix of freezing rain and sleet), with the axis of precipitation gradually shifting southward this morning. However, this first round may actually be the lesser of the two rounds in terms of precipitation amounts, as the main axis of the more robust precipitation remains mainly to the north. Sleet with a mix of freezing rain will favor the northern portions, while primarily freezing rain will favor the southern portions for both rounds of precipitation.

Current storm totals of ice remains anywhere from 0.10-0.25" across the northern portions and in excess of 0.50-0.75" for the southern portions. For areas that favor sleet accumulations, storm totals of 2-4 inches are currently forecasted.

For temperatures, highs in the lower to mid-20 are favored and lows dipping into the single digits are expected through Monday.

Beyond Monday:

Glancing at Day 4 and onward, there will be a gradual warming trend, but with the majority of the region hovering around freezing for highs through the middle of the week may extend impacts into at least the middle of this upcoming week, especially on roadways. The overall weather pattern remains zonal through the middle of the week, with another Arctic airmass attempting to reinforce colder temperatures mid to late week. The latest trends seem to favor an eastward shift of this trough, which would keep the colder temperatures to the north and east.

Another Pacific trough amplifying and progressing eastward along with phasing with the subtropical jet late in the week could provide another opportunity for some unsettled weather, but confidence is quite low given the current model spread. However, this will be worth monitoring model trends over the next several days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Complex winter storm is set to begin shortly. VFR conds should quickly deteriorate to MVFR then IFR/LIFR as a mix of RA/PL/SN overspread the state from SW to NE. Both CIGs and VIS'bys will decrease in quick fashion once precip rates increase. Across Nrn sites, mainly SN is expected overnight/Sat, with periods of +SN at times on Sat. A mix of SN/PL is expected across Cntrl sites, then mainly PL on Sat. And lastly, a mix of PL/FZRA expected over Srn sites, with FZRA the main precip type Sat afternoon/evening (especially at KLLQ). Winds will be gusty out of the NE between 20-30kts tonight into Sat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 13 8 17 -1 / 100 100 90 20 Camden AR 22 11 26 4 / 100 100 80 10 Harrison AR 12 5 13 -6 / 100 100 90 10 Hot Springs AR 17 11 21 3 / 100 100 80 20 Little Rock AR 15 10 20 2 / 100 100 90 20 Monticello AR 24 16 26 8 / 100 100 90 10 Mount Ida AR 18 10 22 0 / 100 100 80 20 Mountain Home AR 13 7 15 -3 / 90 100 90 20 Newport AR 14 12 18 -1 / 100 100 100 20 Pine Bluff AR 18 13 21 4 / 100 100 90 10 Russellville AR 16 11 19 -2 / 100 100 80 10 Searcy AR 14 8 18 -3 / 100 100 90 20 Stuttgart AR 16 13 19 2 / 100 100 90 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.