textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

-Mostly dry into the afternoon hours this Thursday

-Chances for showers/thunderstorms increase later this afternoon and will persist into Friday morning

-Threat for organized severe weather will remain low into Friday

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Mainly quiet conditions are ongoing across the Natural State early this Thu morning...with mainly NRLY flow persisting. This NRLY flow was allowing for some drier air to continue to filter south into the state...which should limit most fog development this morning. Even so...some patchy fog could still be seen through around sunrise...especially across SWRN sections where winds are a bit lighter...and moisture levels higher.

The NRLY flow will persist through the morning and early afternoon hrs...keeping most areas dry. However...an upper shortwave will lift NE over the state this evening and into Fri...with a warm front lifting back north by sunrise Fri. Chances for convection will increase as this wave and front move over the state. Initially...chances will increase over SRN and WRN sections this afternoon into the early evening hrs...then expect POPs to increase further north into the overnight hrs.

The potential for seeing any strong/SVR convection looks to remain low with this system tonight into Fri...mainly due to limited instability given the overnight timing. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen however...which may lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

There will be a brief lull in the convection Fri afternoon/evening...but an unsettled pattern will persist through the Memorial Day weekend into next week. Flow aloft will persist from the SW over the region...and upper waves will pass overhead throughout the period. This will keep chances for precip elevated pretty much every day through the end of the forecast. Chances for SVR Wx look uncertain...and will depend on details specific to each day regarding instability and SHR. Several rounds of rainfall may be seen during this period...but exact placement of heaviest amounts also remains uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas will continue to see beneficial rainfall that should help improve the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Poor flight conditions will be seen through much of the period across most area terminals. Lowest cigs/vsby expected through the morning hours, but some sites may struggle to see VFR cigs by this afternoon. Sfc winds will be mainly E/NE up to 10 kts. RA/TS coverage will remain limited through most of the day, but will generally increase in coverage from W-E by 22/00z. Cigs/vsby will worsen near the end of the period as well with some localized FG development possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 64 75 62 / 10 70 70 20 Camden AR 79 64 80 64 / 30 80 50 40 Harrison AR 77 62 72 58 / 20 60 70 20 Hot Springs AR 80 64 79 63 / 10 80 60 30 Little Rock AR 79 64 78 63 / 10 70 60 30 Monticello AR 80 66 80 66 / 40 70 60 40 Mount Ida AR 80 65 79 63 / 10 70 50 30 Mountain Home AR 78 62 73 58 / 10 60 70 20 Newport AR 80 64 77 63 / 0 70 80 30 Pine Bluff AR 79 65 79 64 / 10 70 60 40 Russellville AR 81 64 78 62 / 10 70 80 30 Searcy AR 80 63 77 61 / 0 80 80 30 Stuttgart AR 79 66 78 65 / 10 80 60 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.