textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

- A strong cold front will move through the state today, driving gusty northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

- Some rainfall may be seen across northern to northeastern Arkansas through today, but very minimal accumulations are expected.

- Very dry air, critically dry short-term fuels, and gusty northwest winds will keep local wildfire danger elevated this afternoon.

- Dry weather and generally below normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the week and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The greater Arkansas fcst remains characterized by bouts of cooler than normal to mostly normal temps, w/ some minimal rain chances acrs Nrn to Ern AR thru parts of Wed, and dry weather thereafter.

Latest sfc analyses and sfc obs indicated an aprchg cdfrnt was moving thru Srn MO and into Nrn AR. Area radar imgry showed light precip invof the frnt, though w/ sfc dewpoint depressions over Nrn AR in excess of 20F, significant moistening wl be needed before any precip reaches the ground thru the overnight PD. Cold advection should aid in the process, w/ some very minimal QPF possible over Nrn to NErn AR thru the day Wed.

As the frnt moves acrs the state today, gusty NWrly winds wl prevail, w/ sustained winds near 15-20 mph, and gusts of 25-35 mph at times. Critically dry area 10 hour fuel moisture levels and strong winds wl promote another day of wildfire danger concerns, so any public burning should be postponed.

Thru the next 5-7 days, deterministic and ensemble guidance remains steadfast on mean H500 troughing staying rooted over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. W/ a strong meridional component of the polar jet staying positioned over the Cntrl US, a few intrusions of Canadian Continental air are expected, w/ the next round of cold...and extremely dry...air surging Swrd during the Sat-Sun timeframe.

Thru most of the PD, high temps wl top out in the 40s at most locations w/ nightly freezing condns expected. Thurs mrng wl host the first cold mrng w/ area lows in the 20s, and upper teens over Nrn AR accompanied by wind chills in the low teens. In the wake of the second cdfrnt, Sun mrng wl feature lows in the low teens acrs Nrn AR, and low 20s elsewhere, w/ wind chills falling to single digits over Nrn AR. Morning lows should moderate upwards thereafter, but wl still stay below normal thru the end of the PD.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026e

A line of showers are quickly moving through the region, with only the southeastern terminals possibly seeing rain over the next few hours. Some brief MVFR ceilings are possible during this period but should be lifting throughout the day across the region before SKC to FEW high clouds late in the period. Otherwise, gusty northwesterly to northerly flow will be the main story as gusts 20-30 kts will develop this morning and persist into this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 53 22 44 32 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 58 24 48 32 / 20 0 0 0 Harrison AR 49 20 45 34 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 56 24 48 33 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 56 25 46 32 / 20 0 0 0 Monticello AR 58 27 47 34 / 30 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 23 49 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 20 43 31 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 52 22 42 31 / 40 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 25 46 33 / 30 0 0 0 Russellville AR 55 24 47 30 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 54 22 44 29 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 54 24 43 33 / 40 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.