textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for western into central sections today

-More limited chances for rainfall Friday

-Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast for this weekend into early next week

-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

SRLY SFC flow will return this Thu as a warm front lifts north...and weak upper wave lifts north over WRN AR into this afternoon. Some isolated/scattered convection may develop late this morning into the afternoon hrs...with best potential for seeing SHRA/TSRA over WRN sections of the state this afternoon. However...some chances for convection may be seen as far east as portions of central AR.

Chances for precip look to decrease by this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating...and with the upper wave moving east of AR. Chances for convection look much lower on Fri with a bit more ridging aloft over the state. Even so...some isolated afternoon convection may be seen over WRN /NWRN sections.

Chances for more convection return for Sat...with coverage expected to be more significant. This will be result of an upper low lifting north from TX into OK...and with an upper disturbance passing NE over AR in the SW flow aloft east of the upper low. Similar conditions will be seen again on Sun...with scattered convection expected for a good portion of the CWA.

The unsettled pattern will continue into early next week as SW flow aloft continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. By the middle of next week...expect the chances for precip to decrease as upper flow become less significant over the region. Even so...enough weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some isolated afternoon convection during the middle of next week.

The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated strong/SVR convection may be seen each day...along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated flash flooding.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Predominate VFR CIGs have decreased into MVFR CIGs in the southern half of AR as showers and thunderstorms approach out of the SW. Southerly winds will continue to draw moisture out of the south, supporting more showers as a warm front draws north across western AR. Rain coverage will decrease overnight and CIGS will return to predominantly VFR around sunset. Northern terminals could dip into MVFR CIGs tomorrow morning as system works NE, but should quickly recover to VFR by noon tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 85 68 86 / 10 10 0 20 Camden AR 67 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 50 Harrison AR 66 82 66 82 / 20 20 10 50 Hot Springs AR 68 85 70 85 / 10 10 10 40 Little Rock AR 68 85 69 85 / 10 0 10 40 Monticello AR 68 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 50 Mount Ida AR 68 84 70 83 / 10 10 10 50 Mountain Home AR 65 82 66 83 / 10 20 10 30 Newport AR 67 86 69 87 / 0 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 68 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 30 Russellville AR 68 85 70 85 / 10 20 10 50 Searcy AR 66 86 67 86 / 10 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 69 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.