textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

-Dry weather, and above normal afternoon temperatures will persist through remainder of the work week

-Near daily high record temperatures possible on Saturday

-Rain chances return through the first half of next week, through higher uncertainty remains on rainfall totals for northern half of Arkansas

-Increasing confidence for wetter and more unsettled pattern over the forecast area heading into March

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Recent mesoanalysis depicted a stationary frnt draped acrs Nrn AR, w/ passing weak precip on composite radar imgry. Expect a similar day acrs the FA w/ cooler temps over Nrn AR as the aforementioned frnt should drift Swrd thru the day. Warmer temps into the mid 70s are expected over far Srn AR. Some low Chc PoPs are expected over far Srn to SErn AR, in conjunction w/ a passing embedded H500 shortwave. Asctd height falls aloft and warmer sfc temps / modest moisture may support some deeper isolated convection this evng, though the greater threat for more organized storms is expected further SE over the ARKLAMISS.

Thru the end of the week, daily high temps should continue to moderate upwards as sfc high pressure settles over the Mid-South. The warmest temps are expected on Sat, w/ area readings climbing to the mid to upper 70s at most locations, and several areas nearing daily record highs.

The main focus as we turnover to March and the new work week wl be higher confidence in a pattern shift towards more unsettled and wetter weather. That being said, there are still modest uncertainties pertaining to precip potential and asctd temperatures thru the first half of next week. This is largely due to the evolution of a sfc cdfrnt expected to move Swrd towards the Ozark Plateau on Sun. Latest NBM IQR's for daily high temps is still exhibiting spreads of 15-20F fm Sun thru Wed acrs the FA, as can be inferred by differing solns of deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance. Dependent on how far south the aforementioned frnt manages to move, generally cooler temps and higher PoPs are currently favored over the Nrn half of AR thru the first half of next week.

Current NBM mean QPF guidance suggests around three quarters of an inch possible over the Nrn half of the state, and lesser amounts Swrd, w/ NBM5.0 mean guidance suggesting higher totals of 1 inch possible over far Nrn AR b/w Sun to Wed. QPF amounts wl continue to be dependent on the position of the aforementioned frnt, w/ a more Swrd extent of the higher rainfall axis over Nrn AR.

Beyond the long term fcst, ensemble mean guidance continues to depict persistent Wrn US H500 troughing, and mean SWrly flow over the Srn Cntrl US... a favorable pattern for convection and heavy precip over the SErn US. Latest ensemble mean QPF progs correlate well to higher precip potential thru mid-March, w/ 2 week QPF anomalies of 4-6 inches acrs the Natural State. Details on rainfall totals and severe weather potential are well beyond the current scope of confidence, however, long term trends are favoring a wetter pattern heading into March.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Widespread VFR conds will persist through much of the overnight. An occluded front is currently hanging across our area roughly between HRO and BPK tailing back to FSM. Winds are light and variable in most terminals but expect NE winds on the N side of the front and SW winds on the S side of the front. CIGs will lower to IFR/LIFR across most SRN terminals by Thurs morning. As the front pushes further S CIGs will improve to MVFR /VFR. Passing SHRA and lower CIGs will be possible for PBF and LLQ for much of the day, but due to lack of confidence mentioned VCSH for this cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 40 71 45 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 76 46 75 45 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 68 40 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 73 45 73 46 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 71 43 71 45 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 75 47 72 46 / 20 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 74 44 75 46 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 66 37 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 65 41 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 45 71 45 / 20 10 0 0 Russellville AR 73 43 74 45 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 68 40 71 42 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 68 44 69 46 / 20 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.