textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 741 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- The precipitation will exit the region this afternoon with a very small chance of precipitation across the north tonight.

- Overall dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period with temperatures close to seasonal averages.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Latest guidance is showing that the current forecast is pretty much on target and only some minor modifications will be made this morning. Attention will be focused for the next several hours on a broken line of convection located over far eastern OK at this time.

This line of showers and thunderstorms continues to advance towards western AR at this time. However, these storms are running into a much more unfavorable environment, i.e, a much more stable air mass. Still, some gusty winds and even a brief QLCS spin up can not be discounted through the remainder of the night although odds are quickly diminishing.

Upper pattern this morning remains highly amplified with H5 ridges located over the SE CONUS and over the Great Basin/Intermountain west. Located in between these features is upper level troughing that extends from the Southern/Central Plains and into the Mid Missouri Valley. Embedded in the base of this feature is upper level low pressure. Surface low pressure is over south central KS with a cold frontal boundary extending of said low and located in far eastern Oklahoma and curving southwest into northern/central TX.

As this trough moves to the east, showers and thunderstorms will overspread the FA. Southwest flow continues to provide a decent enough moisture axis where the storms seem to be focused on. This line of convection will move east during the day but overall the severe threat looks limited with widespread cloud cover. Stability appears to be limited until the early to mid afternoon with CAMS guidance showing some destabilization over the east and east central parts of the CWA where the best chances of seeing stronger winds could occur. Any bowing segments could still pop off a quick QLCS tornado. Most areas are still likely to see beneficial rain from this system.

Guidance has this line of convection crossing the Mississippi River early this evening taking the majority of the precipitation with it. A weak impulse embedded in the base of the departing trough will brush the northern row or two of counties in the FA and will need to have at least minimal precipitation chances through the night.

In the wake of the system, broad southwest flow develops once again as another mid level impulse/upper trough drops into the TX/OK panhandles by Thursday morning. Trough moves across the north Thursday night and into Friday but with limited moisture to work with, only minimals POPS and QPF can be justified. Sprawling H5 ridge forecast to develop over the southern plains this weekend which moves over the state early next week.

Concerning temperatures, cooler air will follow the boundary for Wednesday but quickly rebound as the aforementioned SW flow aloft develops on Thursday. Temperatures once again cool down Friday through the weekend as northwest flow returns with the upper ridge located to our west. As the ridge moves east early next week, temperatures will warm in response.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Expect lowering flight category to as low as IFR for CIGS and VSBY as patchy fog will be present behind the front as clear skies and light surface winds will allow western sites and the southeastern site of KLLQ to lower. Additionally, the lowered CIGS will be moving out of the state overnight, but will lower into MVFR and IFR flight category at times for central and eastern Arkansas. All sites will return to VFR flight category by later Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 71 50 70 42 / 100 40 0 0 Camden AR 76 46 72 41 / 100 10 0 0 Harrison AR 71 47 64 42 / 100 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 71 48 71 41 / 100 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 75 52 72 47 / 100 10 0 0 Monticello AR 76 52 72 45 / 100 70 0 0 Mount Ida AR 69 43 70 35 / 100 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 67 49 65 42 / 100 10 0 0 Newport AR 73 53 71 44 / 100 80 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 78 49 72 42 / 100 40 0 0 Russellville AR 70 49 68 41 / 100 0 0 0 Searcy AR 73 50 71 42 / 100 40 0 0 Stuttgart AR 78 52 71 45 / 100 70 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.