textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

-Some fog possible this morning

-Elevated wildfire threat into Saturday due to low afternoon humidity

-Rain chances increasing Sunday into Monday

-A more persistent wet pattern setting up for portions of the state later next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A weak front dropped south through the state on Thu evening...triggering some isolated convection along this boundary. This convection has since moved SE of AR...with light NRLY winds noted behind the front. A clearing sky combined with the lighter winds may create some patchy fog this morning. There may even be some patchy dense fog at times...mainly under areas that saw rainfall on Thu afternoon/evening. Have issued a Dense Fog Adv for areas that have the best potential for seeing more persistent and widespread low VIS.

Somewhat drier air will settle across the state this Fri as weak SFC high pressure settles across the region. Even with the passage of the front...a mostly clear sky will still allow temps to warm above normal once again this Fri afternoon...with highs in the 70s for many locations. While NW flow aloft will persist...even warmer conditions are expected for Sat as SRLY SFC flow increases with the SFC high shifting east. An increased threat for wildfires may develop both days with these above normal conditions...and persistent dry air remaining. Winds should remain below any critical fire levels both days however.

There are some indications that a front may drop south/SW into the state on Sun...with some increased chances for rainfall returning to the forecast...as well as some cooler conditions. This front looks to settle across some portion of the state by Mon...with some continued chances for rain for portions of the state. By late Mon into Tue...flow aloft looks to transition to more SWRLY over the region...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. Temps will warm back above normal as a result...but will also see increasing moisture levels across the region.

With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may be...and timing of individual waves. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN portion of the state...and points further NW. Will see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the period with light and variable winds. Localized FG development is possible after 28/06z, but confidence isn't very high regarding coverage and placement.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 48 76 47 59 / 0 0 10 30 Camden AR 46 79 51 76 / 0 0 10 10 Harrison AR 50 77 45 58 / 10 10 10 40 Hot Springs AR 48 78 53 68 / 0 0 20 20 Little Rock AR 48 78 52 64 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 49 78 53 75 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 48 78 53 70 / 0 10 20 20 Mountain Home AR 46 77 44 58 / 0 0 10 40 Newport AR 47 75 48 59 / 0 0 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 47 77 52 70 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 46 79 51 65 / 0 0 20 30 Searcy AR 45 77 48 61 / 0 0 10 20 Stuttgart AR 48 76 52 64 / 0 0 10 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.