textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoons. Severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures look to be close to seasonal averages for the next several days at least.

- Heat index values approach heat advisory criteria late in the week over parts of the east and the Arkansas River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Convection did fire up pretty much on schedule Monday afternoon through mid evening with only a few lingering cells noted over the far southwest at this time. As is usually the case with diurnally driven convection, it is a story of the haves and have nots with radar estimates ranging from not a drop to a few instances where as much as three inches fell.

Other than the weakening convection over the southwest, it is generally rain free across the state although a pop up shower or storm can never be discounted. Skies are partly cloudy with some slightly cooler and drier air now in place behind a frontal boundary, temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The piece of energy responsible for the convection on Monday is now located over NE Arkansas in the base of a weak, positively tilted trough. This feature will finally clear the state by mid to late afternoon but before it does, additional diurnally convection is expected as the airmass remains moist and unstable. CAMS guidance is showing the convection much more scattered in nature versus Monday and dissipating quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

The aforementioned upper trough will remain over the FA on Wednesday but with the energy well to the NE, any precipitation looks to be the typical afternoon through early evening convection as higher pressure tries to nose into the region from the southeast. This set up will likely stick around through Friday with precipitation chances trending upwards over the weekend and into early next week as a backdoor front approaches from the NE.

Temperatures look to be typical for early to mid July across the FA with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s today and then just 90s across the board moving forward. Lows also look close to seasonal averages. Heat indices will be well below criteria through Thursday when some areas of eastern Arkansas and the river valley get close to or exceed criteria.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period along with light/variable sfc winds. Isolated showers/storms will be possible through sunset, but coverage is expected to remain low across much of the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 70 91 73 95 / 20 20 0 10 Camden AR 70 92 73 95 / 20 30 10 10 Harrison AR 68 90 72 93 / 10 10 0 10 Hot Springs AR 72 93 74 95 / 10 30 10 0 Little Rock AR 73 93 75 96 / 10 20 10 10 Monticello AR 72 92 74 94 / 20 40 10 10 Mount Ida AR 71 91 73 93 / 10 40 10 0 Mountain Home AR 69 89 72 92 / 20 10 10 10 Newport AR 71 91 74 96 / 30 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 92 74 95 / 10 30 10 10 Russellville AR 72 94 75 96 / 10 10 0 10 Searcy AR 70 92 73 96 / 20 20 10 0 Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 10 20 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.