textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms forecast this afternoon/evening...with damaging winds the primary threat. Isolated large hail and locally heavy rainfall may also be possible

-Some lingering chances for showers/thunderstorms may persist into Thursday...but less widespread than expected this Wednesday

-Slightly cooler/drier air arrives by Friday into Saturday

-Upper ridge expands back over the region by early next week...with hot and humid conditions returning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The center of the upper ridge remains west of the state this morning...centered over the 4-Corners region of the CONUS...placing AR in NW flow aloft. This continues to allow for some weak upper waves to drop SE over the state...one of which will pass overhead through this evening. Additional isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA will become possible into this evening. Initially...there could be some patchy SHRA early this morning...with an isolated TSRA possible. The SVR threat with this morning activity should remain low. However...the threat for seeing SVR convection does increase this afternoon/evening.

An upper disturbance will approach from the NW this afternoon/evening...with chances for convection increasing over AR ahead of this wave. There will be enough instability that a few of these TSRA could become strong to SVR...with damaging wind gusts the primary threat expected. Some isolated large hail may also be seen...along with some locally heavy rainfall.

Chances for convection decreases late tonight into Thu morning...though there could be some lingering SHRA/TSRA over SRN sections after midnight Thu morning. Another upper disturbance will drop SE across the region on Thu...which will allow for a new front to drop south through the state by Fri. There could be some lingering convection Thu...but coverage should be a bit more limited on Thu/Thu night with the front.

Drier air will filter into the state Fri into the weekend behind this front...with some relief from the hot/humid conditions. However...the upper ridge to the west will begin expanding back east by late this weekend into next week. This ridge may eventually settle over the Mid-South region by late in the forecast. Temps may return to the 90s to around 100 for highs...and heat index values may exceed 105 for a larger portion of the area by early next week. Chances for rainfall will also decrease.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Some spotty convection may be seen during the overnight period...but better chances for convection come during the afternoon/early evening hrs on Wed. There may also be some patchy fog Wed morning...but most sites should remain VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 71 93 67 / 50 30 10 0 Camden AR 99 71 94 70 / 30 40 10 10 Harrison AR 89 66 87 62 / 50 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 98 72 95 69 / 50 40 10 0 Little Rock AR 97 73 94 71 / 50 40 10 0 Monticello AR 97 72 93 70 / 20 50 20 10 Mount Ida AR 96 69 94 65 / 50 40 10 10 Mountain Home AR 88 68 89 63 / 50 20 0 0 Newport AR 89 72 91 68 / 60 30 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 95 71 92 68 / 20 50 20 10 Russellville AR 96 71 94 68 / 60 40 10 0 Searcy AR 93 71 92 68 / 60 30 10 0 Stuttgart AR 93 73 93 70 / 30 40 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.