textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

-Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through early Monday as a cold front moves across the region

-Drier conditions expected for much of the upcoming work week

-Well above normal temperatures likely by late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Satellite imagery early this morning shows high level cloudiness moving into western and northwest Arkansas ahead of an ongoing complex of showers and thunderstorms over central Oklahoma. A low stratus deck was also noted south of the I-20 corridor over parts of central Louisiana moving north toward the southern part of the state. Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s with a few lower 70s observed.

Latest guidance continues to show the complex of showers and thunderstorms, of which a few are currently strong will continue to push east toward western Arkansas. A look at hi-res CAMs this morning shows the cluster of showers and thunderstorms will arrive within the next couple of hours into western parts of the state. Ahead of the showers and thunderstorms, current mesoanalysis shows bulk shear of 40-45 kts along with 100-200 J/kg of ML CAPE along and north of I-40. The atmosphere south of I-40 shows bulk shear values of around 30 kts or less with surface CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg over parts of western and southwestern Arkansas. That being said, the main hazards with any strong to severe thunderstorm will be damaging winds as storms will likely be elevated. The cluster will move southeast across western Arkansas and dissipate as it reaches parts of southern and central Arkansas.

As we head into the afternoon hours of Mother's Day, a cold front currently over the southern Ozark plateau will push south into the state. Ahead of the atmosphere becoming conditionally unstable with surface CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg with bulk shear values in the range of 30-40kt with steep low level lapse rates over parts of western, central, southern, and southwest Arkansas.

The SPC has placed the aforementioned areas in a slight risk (Category 2 out of 5). The primary hazards this afternoon into the evening will be damaging winds and large hail. Latest deterministic guidance shows the cold front will push southeast through central Arkansas, then through far southern Arkansas Monday morning as the upper trough over the Great Lakes region slowly moves east toward the eastern seaboard by around mid-week. This will keep the state in northwest flow allowing a brief shot of cooler and drier air to filter into the state on Monday. Another warming trend will commence on Tuesday as southern flow returns bringing a gradual moisture return and warm air into the state through Thursday.

By Thursday night, another shortwave embedded within northwest flow will push toward the state around Friday night on the back side of the upper trough over the eastern seaboard. Model guidance pushes the front through the state bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday, then another disturbance will bring additional chances Sunday across the state.

Temperatures during the latter part of the week will trend well above normal with mid to possibly upper 80s for afternoon high temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move generally to the SE across the state this afternoon through the evening hours. A cold front will slowly move through from NW to SE and precip will come to an end in a similar fashion by 11/12z at most locations. Ahead of the front this afternoon, sfc winds will be variable in direction/speed but will become NE/E at 7-10 kts behind the front near the end of the period. Precip coverage/location will influence how low cigs/vsby become through the late evening hours. There could be a period of MVFR/IFR cigs into the morning hours Monday (mainly across the southern half of the state) before sky conditions begin to clear areawide near the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 56 75 51 80 / 40 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 74 51 81 / 60 30 20 10 Harrison AR 51 75 50 80 / 10 0 10 10 Hot Springs AR 58 74 51 80 / 40 20 0 0 Little Rock AR 57 73 52 79 / 50 20 0 0 Monticello AR 61 74 53 79 / 40 40 20 10 Mount Ida AR 58 74 50 79 / 50 20 0 0 Mountain Home AR 52 75 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 57 76 52 80 / 50 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 59 74 51 79 / 50 20 0 0 Russellville AR 57 77 51 82 / 30 10 0 0 Searcy AR 56 75 49 79 / 50 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 60 74 53 79 / 50 20 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.