textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

-Increased wildfire danger across portions of E/NE Arkansas this afternoon

-Rain chances increase today into tonight, but eastward extent of precipitation remains limited

-Well above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days

-The next round of rain and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Very warm temperatures in place this morning along with humid air across most of the state. Will likely see very little additional cooling through daybreak as cloud cover slowly increases from west to east. Looking at regional radar early this morning, there is a N- S oriented remnant thunderstorm complex in place across portions of western OK southward across central TX. This activity will continue to slowly progress E/NE toward the state through the morning hours and eventually move across the area today into tonight. With ridging and drier in place to the east this activity is expected to dissipate and become less widespread as it moves across Arkansas. Based on available CAM data, made some attempts to lower POPs based on this expectation.

While rain will be more likely across western parts of the state today, srly winds will increase across eastern AR as the sfc pressure gradient tightens. RH values may drop rapidly across eastern AR this afternoon as well. This combination of dry air and gusty winds could contribute to an increase in wildfire danger across portions of E/NE Arkansas during the afternoon hours.

As we go through the week ahead, H500 ridging will remain steadfast from the eastern Gulf across the Southeast US. Across the western US, a robust cyclone will move onshore along the northern CA coast today before slowly weakening after moving inland. With time, this cyclone will open and elongate before ejecting E/NE across the middle of the country during the Tue-Thu timeframe. This will provide persistent mid-level SW flow and well above normal temperatures and abundant moisture will be transported across the middle of the country.

With the SE ridge's influence remaining dominant, precip that develops to the west of the state will really struggle to progress east across Arkansas. It appears the next good chance for rain and thunderstorms will be Wed-Wed night as the H500 trough lifts to the north of the state toward the Great Lakes. Aiding in precip development will be a N-S oriented cold front stretching from the Upper MS Valley to the Southern Plains with a series of sfc lows situated along it. But, similar to today's expectations of rain dissipating as it moves east, this may happen during the Wed-Thu timeframe as well depending on how the SE ridge responds as the trough impinges upon it.

Beyond the mid-week timeframe there could be another H500 trough that moves across the middle of the country which could provide another chance of rain and thunderstorms across the state next weekend. But, plenty of time for model output to change in the meantime. Overall QPF through the period remains highest across western AR with amounts rapidly tapering off toward the E/SE.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR condtions seen across the state with MVFR ceilings being seen across parts of west and southwest Arkansas this afternoon. Hi-res CAM continues to show some isolated to scattered -SHRA possible through early this afternoon across northern and central terminals. To account for this, included tempo groups at impacted TAF sites. Gusty south to southwest will continue through sunset, then subside through the remaining evening and overnight hours before picking up around mid morning on Monday. Ceilings will lift to VFR overnight before another disturbance moves into the area late in the period with MVFR ceilings and spreading across the state from west to east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 82 68 84 / 40 30 10 0 Camden AR 64 82 64 84 / 50 50 10 0 Harrison AR 65 81 68 83 / 50 20 10 20 Hot Springs AR 64 79 64 82 / 50 40 10 0 Little Rock AR 66 82 66 84 / 40 40 10 0 Monticello AR 67 83 66 86 / 30 40 10 0 Mount Ida AR 63 79 64 81 / 50 30 20 10 Mountain Home AR 65 82 67 84 / 50 20 10 10 Newport AR 68 82 68 85 / 50 40 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 66 83 65 86 / 40 50 10 0 Russellville AR 64 81 66 83 / 50 20 10 10 Searcy AR 64 82 65 85 / 40 50 10 0 Stuttgart AR 67 82 67 85 / 50 50 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.