textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Friday with the best chances along the AR/MO border.

- A frontal boundary along the AR/MO border will begin to move to the north as a warm front on Saturday.

- Upper level high pressure will begin to build over the region this weekend and really lock in through most of next week.

- Heat related headlines are likely as heat index values will top out between 105 and 110 degrees or perhaps even a little higher in spots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this morning with the majority, but not all of the precipitation, along the AR/MO border. Area radars are also showing a decent amount of convection over SE KS but CAMS models show this area weakening significantly as it moves to the ESE.

Biggest concern with any thunderstorms that move into or develop over the CWA tonight and Friday will be heavy rain as PWATS remain well above 1.5 inches and hourly flash flood guidance is generally under an inch and a half across the northern tier of counties. However, CAMS guidance is not showing any significant development for the rest of the overnight but heavy precipitation can not be ruled out in this type on environment. Precipitation does increase in coverage once again Friday afternoon.

Latest surface analysis places a nearly stationary boundary along the AR/MO border. Several weak upper waves are forecast to traverse this boundary, embedded in strengthening mid level flow with afternoon convection returning Friday. The best chances of severe weather will be to the north of the FA but once again, far northern AR could see some stronger storms with winds the primary hazard although a brief spin up can not completely be ruled out. Any heavy rain could also lead to at least localized flooding concerns.

The north again could see isolated storms on Saturday afternoon as the boundary starts to lift as a warm front. Meanwhile, an H5 trough will be developing and deepening along the west coast of the country which results in downstream ridging and increasing heights over the mid south. This pattern change will result in a return to very warm and humid conditions with little if any rain chances due to large scale subsidence.

Biggest concern moving forward will be heat and heat related impacts with headlines likely needed late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s through the weekend and into early next week with heat index values well about heat advisory criteria. Guidance is also indicating some areas could reach extreme heat criteria with a real possibility of overnight lows remaining at or above 80 degrees. Long range guidance suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region beyond the end of next week, prolonging the period of dangerous heat anticipated to reside over AR.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across central to southern Arkansas terminals. A bit more complex outlook up north as showers and storms expected to remain mainly north, but can't rule out a shower or storm through the overnight hours. Some MVFR to LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities may settle in at times, favoring KHRO, but conditions should improve by daybreak. Conditions will continue to improve through the morning hours up north, with all terminals at VFR conditions through the rest of the period. Some gusty southerly winds around 20 kts at all terminals possible during the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 89 76 92 76 / 50 20 20 0 Camden AR 92 76 94 76 / 0 0 10 0 Harrison AR 85 72 88 75 / 40 30 40 0 Hot Springs AR 90 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 91 78 93 78 / 10 0 10 0 Monticello AR 92 78 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 88 77 90 77 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 85 72 89 74 / 70 40 40 0 Newport AR 90 76 93 77 / 30 20 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 91 77 93 78 / 30 10 10 0 Searcy AR 91 76 93 76 / 20 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 91 78 94 79 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.