textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Mild conditions are expected today as southerly winds in advance of a dry cold front will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s for most of the state. - A storm system ejecting out of the central plains will bring showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the area Wednesday night through Friday.

- A much stronger cold front will move across the region Friday with cooler air coming back in for the weekend and into early next.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly just high level moisture over the region but a few pockets of stratus are showing up, and verified by surface observations. These same observations are also showing southerly winds and subsequently, temperatures close to average highs for this time of the year with readings across the state in the 50s.

Today looks to be the warmest day of the week with guidance supporting highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with good warm air advection noted.

The highly amplified upper flow that was prevalent the past few days is considerably flatter this morning with quasi-zonal flow in place. A weak short wave trough embedded in this flow will drag a cold front across the state but no precipitation is expected. Just some clouds and a wind shift back to the northwest will even mark its existence. Slightly cooler and drier air will come back in for Wednesday with highs generally in the 60s with lower 70s confined to the south.

Meanwhile, a closed upper low will be coming onshore over the Baja Peninsula and moving off to the northeast, becoming an open wave as it does. Southwest flow aloft develops once again with a better moisture tap as surface cyclogenesis initiates over the central high plains Wednesday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible heading into Thursday morning.

As the surface low moves off to the northeast on Thursday, rainfall will become more widespread but actual rain amounts differ between the models. What seems certain though is the highest amounts of QPF will likely be over northern Arkansas where upwards of an inch of rain could fall through Friday.

As the surface low moves into the southern Great Lakes, a much stronger cold front will move through the state on Friday as a large trough moves into the nations midsection. Pattern once again becomes highly amplified as this trough moves east and upper ridging dominates the western CONUS. North to northwest flow aloft will introduce much cooler air to the area for the weekend and into early next week but even then, temperatures will only cool to average.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Stratus deck producing MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings at the central and southern terminals while the north is mainly VFR. All TAF sites will be VFR by mid to late morning as low clouds dissipate. A dry cold front will move there with state today with winds becoming NW in response. Winds will be light regardless, averaging under 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 42 65 52 / 0 0 0 30 Camden AR 74 44 70 55 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 70 41 67 53 / 0 0 0 50 Hot Springs AR 72 43 67 54 / 0 0 0 30 Little Rock AR 71 44 66 54 / 0 0 0 20 Monticello AR 74 49 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 74 42 68 55 / 0 0 0 30 Mountain Home AR 70 38 65 51 / 0 0 0 50 Newport AR 71 42 64 52 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 73 45 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 71 41 67 52 / 0 0 0 40 Searcy AR 71 40 66 51 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 71 45 66 54 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.