textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the night and into Friday as a cold front moves through.

- The strongest storms may produce some gusty winds but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Rain chances will continue through the weekend and into the middle of next week until weak upper level high pressure builds in.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Guidance continues to show an unsettled pattern for the next few days as frontal boundaries will be meandering around the forecast area. Convection this morning is largely tied to or slightly behind a cold front now located over NW Arkansas in a moderately unstable air mass. Mesoanalysis/model soundings do keep DCAPE values at or above 1000 J/KG for most of the state through the remainder of the night so there will remain the potential of some gusty winds with any stronger storm. Storms have slowly been increasing for the past several hours and are now making a push into the FA.

CAMS models do show widely scattered convection continuing through the remainder of the night and into the day time hours, mainly along the advancing boundary, as the air mass remains moist and unstable. Any stronger storm could still produce some gusty winds and large hail.

Front will eventually stall out along the Arkansas/Louisiana border by Friday evening. Boundary will then begin to lift back to the north Friday night through Saturday and become the focus for increased rain chances. Yet another cold front will be moving through the region early next week as a mid level trough finally swings through. Frontal interactions and abundant moisture will keep POPS and QPF on the higher side until the final FROPA but it is worth mentioning that continuous rain in not expected at this time.

Guidance still inconsistent with QPF. NBM is showing a general 1 to 2 inch rainfall through Monday with higher amounts over the southern third of the state. However, deterministic guidance shows better chances across the north where a slight risk of excessive rainfall exists according to the latest EROs. Rain chances do taper off towards the middle of next week as the aforementioned trough exits the region and is replaced by weak mid level ridging.

Concerning temperatures, another seasonable warm day is expected across the FA today with another steamy one for Saturday as the warm front pushes to the north. Heat index values do flirt with criteria Saturday over parts of the Delta but cooler air does come in for Sunday across the north and statewide for Monday. Heat returns for mid week and beyond with heat indices climbing close to criteria again for Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Some isolated afternoon convection will remain possible over the next few hrs before the loss of daytime heating. Mainly LIT and PBF should be impacted this evening if this activity survives this far south/west. Otherwise...expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Some additional convection will be possible on Sat...with best chances across NRN sections.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 88 73 82 / 20 40 60 30 Camden AR 75 94 77 88 / 10 10 20 70 Harrison AR 70 85 68 75 / 20 50 90 40 Hot Springs AR 75 91 75 84 / 10 30 60 70 Little Rock AR 75 91 76 84 / 20 30 60 70 Monticello AR 77 93 78 89 / 10 10 10 70 Mount Ida AR 74 89 75 82 / 10 20 70 80 Mountain Home AR 70 85 69 77 / 30 50 90 30 Newport AR 73 91 74 84 / 30 50 60 50 Pine Bluff AR 75 92 77 86 / 10 20 30 70 Russellville AR 75 90 75 83 / 20 30 70 50 Searcy AR 73 90 74 84 / 20 30 50 60 Stuttgart AR 76 91 77 85 / 10 30 50 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.