textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend as several upper level impulses move through

- Rain amounts are not expected to be excessive this weekend

- A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday through early Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely

- The chances for severe weather appear low at this time with the system next week but cannot be ruled out entirely

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package with pattern continuing to feature a somewhat amplified upper flow. Guidance continues to show broad ridging over the majority of the nation with upper troughing / upper low now making its way on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will become a major player in in the forecast early next week. Satellite imagery continues to show a significant increase in moisture as southwest flow increases. Guidance remains steadfast in moving a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through and bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state.

The first impulse is slated to move across tonight and early Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range.

Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.

Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. The surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.

Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Rain will likely be in the region for election day but flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out in spots and would actually be welcomed.

Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered rain continues to lift NE over NWRN sections of the area late this afternoon...with more isolated pockets of rain further SE. Expect continued off and on SHRA or pockets of rain to continue overnight into Sun morning. There may be an isolated TSRA...but this may be fairly limited in coverage. MVFR or lower CIGS/VIS may be seen with any of this precip activity...especially the more intense convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 72 59 75 / 90 30 20 30 Camden AR 58 80 60 81 / 50 30 10 0 Harrison AR 56 71 59 74 / 90 20 0 10 Hot Springs AR 57 77 60 79 / 70 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 60 76 61 79 / 70 30 10 10 Monticello AR 62 78 63 79 / 60 40 10 10 Mount Ida AR 55 77 57 79 / 60 10 10 20 Mountain Home AR 57 70 58 73 / 80 20 10 10 Newport AR 59 72 60 76 / 90 30 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 59 77 60 79 / 70 50 10 0 Russellville AR 57 76 59 78 / 80 10 10 10 Searcy AR 58 74 60 76 / 70 40 20 20 Stuttgart AR 61 76 62 78 / 70 50 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.