textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Heat advisories are in effect over parts of central, eastern, north, and northeast Arkansas and within the Arkansas River valley through the 4th of July. - Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon into the early evening hours. A few storms could be briefly strong to severe.

- Temperatures through hover just above normal through mid week, then warm into mid to upper 90s with heat headlines possible by the latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some mid and high level clouds over parts of western and southwest Arkansas with light and variable winds. Temperatures early this morning across the state range from upper 70s to lower 80s. Another hot and humid day is expected across the state this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up this afternoon. Latest short term model guidance shows similar to Friday, PWAT values across the state in the 2 to 2.5 inch range with the highest values seen mainly across the eastern half of the state. Diurnal destabilization due to deep moisture and strong surface heating will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A look at point soundings also shows steep low and mid level lapse rates with some drier air in the mid levels leading to the potential of damaging winds and wet microbursts. With precipitable water values above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology and little to no steering aloft within the upper levels of the atmosphere, some localized flooding is possible with stronger storms. All showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipated due to loss of diurnal heating of the day around sunset. Due to high dewpoints within the 70-74 range and high in the lower 90s will lead to heat index values up to 110, therefore, a Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as Friday.

The ridge of high pressure across the southeastern US that lead to hazardous heat across parts of the state will continue to weaken and flatten today. This is in response to a short wave trough currently moving into the central Plains. Model guidance shows this trough will move across Kansas later today with both the ECMWF and GFS and CAMS showing an MCS(Mesoscale Convective Complex) will be generated this afternoon across parts of central and eastern Kansas. Hi-res CAMs and short term guidance shows the MCS moving southeast toward Arkansas later tonight A look at overnight CAMs the MCS decaying largely as it moves into northwest Arkansas on later this evening as it as moves away from the best upper level support. By late tonight into early Sunday morning, the short wave trough will trek across central Missouri dragging a weak cold front into parts of northern Arkansas. This will lead to additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state on Sunday. The short wave trough axis will move east of the state by Monday afternoon as the Bermuda high and ridging across the southwest and southern Plains expands to encompass much of the southern US. This will lead temperatures to soar toward the mid and upper 90s by the later part of next week. If this trend holds, heat headlines may again be need across parts of Arkansas late next week into the weekend. On top of the expanding ridge, a zonal upper air pattern will be seen across the central plains with embedded shortwave bringing the best chances for rainfall to the northern parts of the state during the latter part of next week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Flight category may become degraded to as low as IFR flight category across all terminals due to lowering VSBY within VCTS at the beginning of the period on Saturday evening and then again due to activity moving in from Oklahoma during the morning into midday timeframe on Sunday. Surface wind gusts may reach values of 35 knots in the strongest of storms. The site of KLLQ remains designated "AMD NOT SKED" due to the lack of a working VSBY sensor which has been ordered.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 92 72 89 / 20 50 40 40 Camden AR 72 94 72 91 / 10 30 40 40 Harrison AR 70 87 69 86 / 50 40 30 30 Hot Springs AR 73 93 73 91 / 10 40 50 40 Little Rock AR 75 93 75 90 / 10 40 40 50 Monticello AR 73 93 74 91 / 10 40 50 50 Mount Ida AR 72 92 72 89 / 20 40 40 40 Mountain Home AR 71 88 70 86 / 50 40 40 40 Newport AR 73 93 73 90 / 10 60 40 40 Pine Bluff AR 73 93 73 90 / 10 40 50 50 Russellville AR 74 93 73 91 / 20 40 30 40 Searcy AR 72 93 72 90 / 10 50 40 50 Stuttgart AR 74 93 74 90 / 10 50 50 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ025-032>034- 039-043>047-056-057-064-065-069.