textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

-A cold front has moved completely across the state of Arkansas overnight

-Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in place for Thursday night/Friday morning

-Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the Little Rock CWA on Friday night/Saturday morning as cold air advection continues to impact the state

-High pressure in the wake of the front will usher in below average temperatures continuing into early next week

-Rain chances return Sunday through early Monday for western and southern Arkansas with most rainfall totals expected to remain between 0.25 to 0.50 inches

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

FRIDAY (TODAY)/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, continued northwesterly flow over Arkansas is expected during this period per the state sitting beneath the western flank of a deep trof positioned over the eastern CONUS. Upper lvl convergence and negative vorticity advection will promote large scale subsidence through the tropospheric column. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region in the wake of the cold front and CAA will continue through Friday afternoon before the pressure gradient weakens. However, clear skies and calm winds forecast across the state will create perfect conditions for effective radiational cooling. In response, freeze warnings will likely be needed across most, if not all of the Little Rock CWA on Friday night/Saturday morning for locations which fail to reach freezing conditions this morning.

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, a ridge axis amplifies into the Midwest region of the CONUS. A negatively-tilted southern stream shortwave ejects over the Four Corners and Southern Plains regions of the CONUS. Weak positive vorticity advection and diffluent flow will be noted over Arkansas Sunday into early Monday. At the sfc, the region of high pressure shifts eastward into Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS. The presence of an inverted sfc trof and coastal low pressure center developing along the northwestern Gulf Coast will provide weak isentropic ascent across western and southern Arkansas. Latest probabilistic values signal an event where most locations across western and southern Arkansas will be lucky to tally a half inch of total rainfall with most locations forecast to receive around a quarter of an inch of total rainfall as the deep moisture transport remains well south of the state.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

In the upper lvls, a ridge positions over the state of Arkansas during this timeframe. The combination of rising geopotential heights and mid-lvl warming act as a lid or CAP on the atmosphere which prevents any organized precipitation. At the sfc, a large region of high pressure positions in the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS meandering throughout this region during the period. Increased gulf advection will usher in an airmass which is warmer and contains more moisture overall; however, this moisture will not result into increased PoP chances via upper lvl features mentioned above. Temperatures overall during this period will return to values which will be near to slightly above average compared to seasonal normals over this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Flight category over the period from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening is expected to remain VFR across all sites for the entire duration of the forecast period. A dry cold front is currently moving the state of Arkansas from north to south and winds at the surface are shifting to out of the north overall. A few sites will experience wind gusts in excess of 20 knots which will last into the day on Friday before winds lose their gusting condition at the surface later Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 54 28 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 32 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 50 26 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 57 32 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 57 32 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 50 27 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 54 29 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 57 31 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 28 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 56 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ025-031>034- 039-042>047-052>057-062>064-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-221-222- 230-237-238-240-241-340-341.