textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- A weak cold front will move through the state today, bringing rain chances, and some much needed rainfall/temperature relief for some areas

- Heat index values may remain over 105 for many areas of central to southern Arkansas this afternoon...and maybe again on Thursday

- More seasonable July/Aug temperatures are set to resume by the end of the work week into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

WEDNESDAY (TODAY) through THURSDAY:

A H500 ridge remains elongated over the Four Corners region of the CONUS into the Southern Plains region of the CONUS. The ridge will overall be undergoing a process of breaking down and a weak cold front will move from northeast to southwest into the state of Arkansas. The weak cold front will bring limited, but respectable POP chances on both Wednesday and Thursday across the CWA.

A transition period of temperatures becoming suppressed to values which are normal for this time of the year will be present in the wake of this weak frontal boundary.

Unfortunately, heat products in the form of a Heat Advisory will be warranted today across parts of the state, especially from along I- 40 and locations southward as the weak cold front and cooler airmass behind the boundary will take time to make progress across the state. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along and ahead of this boundary, but organized severe weather is not anticipated.

Into Thursday, more relief will be noted across Arkansas as the weak cold front and resultant cooler airmass will be felt across the state as the frontal boundary continues to push southwestward into the ARK-LA-TEX region of the region. POP chances will once again be elevated in locations along and ahead of this boundary. A return of temperatures to normals for late July and early August will be noted and heat products will likely not be warranted.

FRIDAY through TUESDAY:

Into the weekend a H500 trof will dig across the eastern half of the CONUS and will result in the retrograde or movement westward of the H500 center of the ridge away from Arkansas to become placed over the Southwestern region of the CONUS. At the sfc, the result from the upper lvl pattern will be the assist of a cold front progged to move from west to east across the state on Saturday. The cold front is progged to become a stationary boundary along the Mid-South region of the CONUS, but remain in close enough proximity to keep POP chances elevated over this period, especially across eastern Arkansas. The airmass which will overtake Arkansas into the weekend and beginning of the week will keep temperatures near normal across the state for early August.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A challenging forecast when it comes to showers and thunderstorm timing. Most of the storms are forming on weak boundaries that have stalled over AR, then evolving with outflow boundaries at the storms dissipate. This activity will last a few more hours until sunset then it will decrease in coverage. Guidance is showing a mid level feature pushing through in the morning that will bring showers, but is not expected to have lightning. As things heat up tomorrow the chances for lightning will increase again in the afternoon. Most guidance has all sites staying VFR except for when they get storms. There is a chance for some shallow fog at KADF/KHOT/KLLQ with the wet ground, but clouds should mitigate most of that possibility.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 71 91 71 92 / 10 0 10 30 Camden AR 75 93 75 95 / 40 50 20 10 Harrison AR 72 87 73 90 / 20 30 30 40 Hot Springs AR 74 94 74 96 / 40 50 20 10 Little Rock AR 74 94 74 96 / 30 20 20 20 Monticello AR 76 94 76 95 / 40 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 74 92 73 95 / 40 60 10 10 Mountain Home AR 70 88 71 89 / 20 10 30 30 Newport AR 71 90 71 92 / 0 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 74 94 73 94 / 30 30 10 20 Russellville AR 75 93 74 97 / 40 30 10 10 Searcy AR 72 92 72 93 / 20 10 10 30 Stuttgart AR 74 92 74 94 / 20 10 10 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039- 042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ031-032-039- 042>045-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.