textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

-Cooler temperatures persisting through Monday, with abnormally dry conditions and elevated winds resulting in some elevated fire weather conditions today

-Warming conditions through the middle of the week to well above normal levels, with elevated fire weather conditions possible again on Tuesday as winds strengthen again

-A transition to more unsettled weather favored late in the week, with precipitation chances increasing in the Thursday to Friday timeframe

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Clear skies are dominating over the region as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. A decent pressure gradient is still in place, thus gusty northerly winds 20-30 mph for most areas are anticipated today across the state. This will result in some areas of elevated fire weather conditions, especially central to western Arkansas, as drier relative humidities in the lower to mid 20s are possible this afternoon. However, due to the cooler high temperatures in the 40s and 50s this afternoon, any critical fire weather conditions remain at bay.

Cooler temperatures below normal levels will continue on Monday, as high pressure continues to build, continuing northerly flow. Winds will be a bit weaker as the high center near the region. Thus, while the abnormally dry conditions persist, no fire weather concerns for Monday.

Some positive mid-level height anomalies begin to creep into the region by Tuesday, as the longwave trough in place amplifies east of the region, with upstream ridging amplifying in response. While the ridge axis will remain west of the Rockies, expect warming conditions going through the middle of the week back to well above normal levels.

Another trough of Arctic origin diving southeastward of the Rockies mid-week will be the next feature to watch in terms of a transition to cooler and possibly wetter outlook late this week. Ensemble guidance has much better alignment, as there is some consistency run to run noted. As this trough traverses across the Midwest, the consensus is that the enhanced moisture axis in association with surface low development will set up along the Mississippi River and east. Thus, while precipitation chances are anticipated to increase during this period, the bulk of activity looks to be east of the region for this event at this time. However, any shift further westward could greatly change the outlook of precipitation chances and amounts in this Thursday to Friday timeframe.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Expect breezy north to northwest winds to continue then becoming light within an hour or two after sunset. Winds will be light on Monday with some afternoon breezes up to 20 kts possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 23 43 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 26 52 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 19 44 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 26 52 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 26 47 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 28 48 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 25 52 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 19 42 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 24 42 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 26 46 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 24 51 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 22 44 23 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 26 44 27 59 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.