textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Friday with the best chances along the AR/MO border.

- A frontal boundary along the AR/MO border will begin to move to the north as a warm front on Saturday.

- Upper level high pressure will begin to build over the region this weekend and really lock in through most of next week.

- Heat related headlines are likely as heat index values will top out between 105 and 110 degrees or perhaps even a little higher in spots.

UPDATE

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Latest fcst update includes the issuance of a Flood Watch over far Nrn AR, in accordance w/ an upgrade to a Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding over the Ozark Plateau Friday night. Much of the region has received up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, resulting in primed soils and compromised FFG. 06Z and 12Z REFS/HREF guidance has indicated some potential for locally higher rainfall amounts near 3 to 4 inches per 90th percentile and LPMM solns, which would yield flash flooding concerns quickly if co-located w/ compromised regions.

As of this update, higher confidence for more significant QPF Fri night remains over much of Srn MO, w/ lower confidence residing over Nrn AR, though flash flooding wl be possible if a higher- end rainfall scenario unfolds over the region. If you are planning to be outdoors, or camping near smaller rivers and streams Fri night, be sure to stay weather aware, and take action if a flash flood warning is issued.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this morning with the majority, but not all of the precipitation, along the AR/MO border. Area radars are also showing a decent amount of convection over SE KS but CAMS models show this area weakening significantly as it moves to the ESE.

Biggest concern with any thunderstorms that move into or develop over the CWA tonight and Friday will be heavy rain as PWATS remain well above 1.5 inches and hourly flash flood guidance is generally under an inch and a half across the northern tier of counties. However, CAMS guidance is not showing any significant development for the rest of the overnight but heavy precipitation can not be ruled out in this type on environment. Precipitation does increase in coverage once again Friday afternoon.

Latest surface analysis places a nearly stationary boundary along the AR/MO border. Several weak upper waves are forecast to traverse this boundary, embedded in strengthening mid level flow with afternoon convection returning Friday. The best chances of severe weather will be to the north of the FA but once again, far northern AR could see some stronger storms with winds the primary hazard although a brief spin up can not completely be ruled out. Any heavy rain could also lead to at least localized flooding concerns.

The north again could see isolated storms on Saturday afternoon as the boundary starts to lift as a warm front. Meanwhile, an H5 trough will be developing and deepening along the west coast of the country which results in downstream ridging and increasing heights over the mid south. This pattern change will result in a return to very warm and humid conditions with little if any rain chances due to large scale subsidence.

Biggest concern moving forward will be heat and heat related impacts with headlines likely needed late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s through the weekend and into early next week with heat index values well about heat advisory criteria. Guidance is also indicating some areas could reach extreme heat criteria with a real possibility of overnight lows remaining at or above 80 degrees. Long range guidance suggests the upper level ridge could linger over the region beyond the end of next week, prolonging the period of dangerous heat anticipated to reside over AR.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Cirrus shield was noted moving acrs the FA on recent vissat imgry, w/ mixed VFR/MVFR CIGs at local terminals. Expect intermittent MVFR CIGs over Wrn to Nrn terminals, associated with passing precip. Additional precip/TS wl be possible over Nrn AR near and beyond 00Z Fri night. Expect gusty SWrly winds to persist acrs the FA, w/ winds weakening beyond 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 92 76 93 / 20 30 10 0 Camden AR 76 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 72 88 75 90 / 50 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 78 93 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 78 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 77 90 77 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 72 89 74 91 / 50 40 0 0 Newport AR 76 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 77 93 78 95 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 76 93 76 94 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 78 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ004>008-015-017-103- 203.