textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

-A Heat Advisory will be warranted across parts of central Arkansas, (including the Little Rock metro), Arkansas River Valley, part of west-central Arkansas, and part of eastern Arkansas for heat index values which are expected to reach 105 to 109 degrees on Saturday ahead of the anticipated rain and storms.

-A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible from Saturday afternoon through the early morning hours on Sunday as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Arkansas/Missouri border and push slowly east-southeastward into northern and central Arkansas over time. The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts, a few instances of severe hail (quarter- sized), and a potential for flash flooding.

-A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather is possible on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across southern Arkansas. The main hazards will include: damaging wind gusts and a few instances of possible flash flooding.

-Into the latter part of the upcoming workweek, high temperatures will make a run at the century mark across the state as an upper lvl high begins to develop over the Southern Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

In the upper lvls, a stout region of high pressure will be positioned over the Four Corners region of the CONUS and northwesterly to northerly flow will be present over the state of Arkansas. Into the workweek, the center of the upper lvl high pressure become elongated and fixates over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS. An upper lvl low pressure center will actually retrograde back westward during the middle portion of the workweek influenced by the upper lvl high planted across the Northern Plains into the Mid-West region of the CONUS. Into the later portion of the workweek, an upper lvl high pressure center begins to develop over Southern Plains region of the CONUS.

At the sfc, a stationary boundary across southern Missouri will begin to push southward slowly as a cold front during the afternoon/evening timeframe on Saturday. It is the parameter space along and ahead of this feature across northern and central Arkansas which will set the table for the potential of severe weather. Latest CAMS portray a parameter space with moderate instability and near- zero shear; additionally, 0-3 km lapse rates above 9 C/km and DCAPE values in the range of 1,000 J/kg to 1,300 J/kg will present an environment suggestive of damaging wind gusts associated with thunderstorm development. A few instances of severe hail will be possible and CAMS have lengthened the duration of this event (in tandem with high PW values of 1.7-2.0 inches) which may lead to multiple rounds of rain and storms training over the same locations which would present a threat for flash flooding.

Into Sunday afternoon, the cold front will push into southern Arkansas and be making a run toward the Arkansas/Louisiana border. Latest CAMS show additional development across the southern portion of the state, but this parameter space will not be as primed for severe weather as the activity from Saturday (today). However, damaging wind gusts will be a primary concern in storms that do become severe.

The cold front will stall south of Arkansas as a stationary front by early into the workweek and remain through the mid-workweek and keep POP chances decent across the state for isolated rain and storms; however, widespread activity is not anticipated and POP chances will diminish later into the week as the stationary boundary moves away from the state and a surface high pressure center moves into the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions across all terminals to begin the forecast period between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Degradation of flight category is expected to take place across all sites from north to south across the state of Arkansas during the afternoon hours on Saturday lasting for the remainder of the period due to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with cloud tops as high as 40,000 to 50,000+ feet expected in the strongest cells. CIGS and VSBY will both lower statewide to as low as IFR flight category and surface wind gusts will be in excess of 30 to 35 knots in the most mature storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 72 89 70 / 80 30 20 10 Camden AR 96 73 90 70 / 0 60 50 50 Harrison AR 89 69 86 67 / 70 20 10 0 Hot Springs AR 96 74 91 72 / 20 70 40 10 Little Rock AR 97 74 90 73 / 40 70 20 10 Monticello AR 96 75 90 72 / 10 70 40 40 Mount Ida AR 93 73 89 71 / 30 80 40 20 Mountain Home AR 88 69 86 68 / 60 20 10 0 Newport AR 95 72 89 71 / 80 40 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 96 73 90 71 / 20 80 40 20 Russellville AR 96 74 92 73 / 60 60 20 10 Searcy AR 96 72 90 70 / 70 50 20 10 Stuttgart AR 96 74 90 72 / 40 70 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039- 043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.