textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

-Some strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening...with the best chances over NW sections of the area. Damaging winds...large hail...and locally heavy rainfall possible with strongest activity

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day into the middle of next week, with the best chances for seeing more scattered/numerous showers/storms on Fri

-Hot/humid conditions will continue today...then somewhat cooler conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Looking for a near repeat in the forecast this Thu compared to what was observed on Wed...with highs in the 80s and 90s...and continued chances for afternoon convection. However...do think the coverage of convection...especially over WRN sections...will be a bit better. Expect more numerous SHRA/TSRA for WRN sections...which will be result of an upper shortwave approaching from the west. While widespread SVR Wx is not expected...a few strong to SVR storms could be seen this afternoon. This will be mainly across WRN/NWRN sections...with the approach of the shortwave. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with the strongest storms...with locally heavy rain also possible.

By Fri...the aforementioned shortwave will move into the state from the west...bringing better chances for more numerous convection on Fri into Fri night for a larger portion of the state. Given this upper shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with the potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low on Fri. Again...this doesn't rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection still being possible however.

Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper waves may pass overhead and when.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. Showers and TSRA have been kept out of TAFs due to uncertainty with coverage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 96 67 89 64 / 20 20 40 10 Camden AR 95 67 90 64 / 20 20 40 0 Harrison AR 88 63 83 61 / 50 50 50 10 Hot Springs AR 94 67 89 64 / 30 30 50 10 Little Rock AR 94 69 88 67 / 30 20 30 10 Monticello AR 96 69 93 66 / 20 20 30 0 Mount Ida AR 92 65 89 64 / 30 40 50 10 Mountain Home AR 93 64 88 62 / 30 40 40 10 Newport AR 96 68 91 65 / 20 10 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 96 68 90 65 / 20 20 30 0 Russellville AR 94 67 88 65 / 30 40 40 10 Searcy AR 95 67 90 64 / 20 20 30 10 Stuttgart AR 95 69 91 66 / 20 20 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.