textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Scattered showers will come to an end early this morning; a cold front will sweep across portions of AR through the afternoon

- Additional showers/isolated storms are expected this evening into Saturday morning across the southeast half of the state; a few of these storms could become strong to severe

- Cold front will clear the state by Saturday morning providing colder and drier air through the weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Regional WSR-88D radars detected a few scattered showers ongoing across portions of E and SE AR early this Friday morning. This activity was slowly advancing Ewrd with a general decrease in intensity over the last few hours. A frontal boundary was positioned from N of Texarkana, to Russellville, to Mountain Home. Temps ranged from the mid 40s to near 60 degs on W/NWrly winds behind the front, to mid 60s to lower 70s with S/SWrly winds ahead of the front. Needless to say these temps on a whole are way above daily averages for this time of day and time of year.

Today, precip will diminish across Ern sections of the state during the predawn hours, otherwise most of Friday will be dry despite widespread mostly cloudy skies. Skies could actually clear out for a period over portions of W, NW, and N AR late this morning into the afternoon. The frontal boundary should become nearly stationary over portions of SE AR by later this afternoon. High temps should range from the upper 50s N, lower/mid 60s Cntrl, to the upper 60s/lower 70s over SE AR.

Unsettled weather conditions will return by late Friday afternoon/evening across the SE half of AR. Synoptically, H500 trough will translate Ewrd across the Cntrl/Srn Plains today. A surface low should track across Nrn portions of TX before shifting slightly NEwrd towards the ArkLaMiss region tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop late Friday afternoon/evening into early Saturday morning as forcing for ascent passes over the region. As already mentioned, rainfall should stay confined to the SE half of the state with the highest QPF expected over far SE AR. Expected amounts have decreased by nearly half from this time yesterday. This is the result of a subtle shift in the surface low towards the SE and precipitation onset slightly later in the day. Amounts between 0.25"-0.75" will be possible from roughly Camden Ewrd to Monticello and points S and E of there. Precipitation amounts should gradually diminish heading N and W from these cities in the direction of Cntrl AR.

The greatest threat of severe weather should be displaced S/SE/E of AR across the open warm sector, however the SE section of the state could see a few strong to severe storms most likely in the form of elevated convection. Large hail would be the primary hazard followed by a lower chance of damaging winds getting through the inversion.

Upper level winds will transition to NWrly component as a strong closed low dips out of Canada into the Great Lakes region over the weekend. At the surface a cold front will sweep across the region with high pressure settling into the state through Sunday. Temps through the weekend look to be near seasonal with lows ranging from the 20s to 40s and highs topping out in the 40s and 50s. Looking into early/middle of next week, NW flow should remain in place however surface winds should switch back to the SW as high pressure slides E of the region on Tuesday. Temps should modify somewhat through midweek.

Looking at the middle of the upcoming week, an upper level trough may dive SEwrd across the mid-section of the country. This feature should bring another shot of colder air to the region. At this time moisture looks very limited thus no mention of PoPs at the moment accompanying the front. Will continue to monitor this portion of the forecast period over the coming days to see if better moisture return can be achieved. Temps during this period of time should be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions are expected for central and northern terminals as low stratus remains in the area. Southern termianls will likely see MVFR/IFR conditions as TSRA becomes possible later this evening and after midnight as a disturbances tracks just south of the state. Additionally winds will likely be gusty across most terminals this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 53 34 47 / 30 0 0 0 Camden AR 49 57 34 52 / 90 10 0 0 Harrison AR 38 49 29 44 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 44 54 36 50 / 50 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 48 55 35 49 / 60 0 0 0 Monticello AR 54 59 37 51 / 100 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 42 53 35 52 / 40 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 40 50 29 45 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 47 53 33 46 / 40 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 51 56 36 49 / 90 10 0 0 Russellville AR 43 55 33 50 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 46 54 32 47 / 50 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 50 55 35 47 / 80 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.