textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

-Unsettled pattern will provide continued daily rain chances across the state.

-Near to below normal temperatures expected through the end of the work week.

-Severe weather chances are very low, some locally heavy rainfall is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT...

Showers and a few thunderstorms encompass the western half of the state early this afternoon. Several Flash Flood Warnings are currently in effect, which prompted the issuance of a Flood Watch for the first several northern rows of counties in the CWA until 7 AM Friday morning (includes the cities Russellville, Harrison, Conway, Searcy, and Batesville).

Latest satellite and radar depicts a secondary MCV circulation that has tracked north of the Tulsa area from the parent circulation located in western Kansas. This development is enhancing the line of showers and storms that are tracking/training over the western half of the state. More robust convection across the north-central portions of the state are resulting in higher rain rates (3-5" or greater estimates by MRMS) than the southern areas (gauges measured 1-2"), prompting Flash Flood Warnings.

Another apparent circulation area located across northern Louisiana will continue to promote shower and storm activity as CAMS show this circulation lifting northward through the central portions of the state into the overnight hours. Thus, areas that received significant rainfall amounts, either from last night's activity (central Arkansas) or today's activity (northern Arkansas) will continue to promote a flash flood threat through the overnight hours. Showers/storms may linger past midnight for central Arkansas, with the activity lingering even into the morning hours Friday for northern Arkansas.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Overall H500 pattern looks to remain in place the next couple of days with cutoff lows on either end of the CONUS divided by steep ridging across the middle of the country. Extending east from the western US cyclone is a mid-level trough axis from SE Colorado toward Houston, TX. This feature will struggle to lift north as it works against the ridge in place across the Upper MS River Valley.

At the sfc, an area of low pressure across southeast OK will also slowly lift north Thursday into Friday. With these features in place, widespread shower and thunderstorm development is expected across the state and surrounding areas. As PW values approach or exceed 2.00" at times across the area, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Late evening and overnight CAMS suggest additional bands of precip developing to the east of the low (across AR), persisting through at least the late evening hours. Some localized swaths of heavy precipitation are likely, but confidence in location and areal extent remain low. Similar to Wednesday evening, some localized flash flooding will be possible once again.

Mid-level ridging will become more dominant across the region by late weekend into early next week which will limit precip coverage. This will also lead to slightly warmer temperatures as well. Confidence remains low regarding the evolution of the pattern through the middle of next week as guidance remains varied.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Mix of MVFR/IFR conds are expected as bands of SHRA/TSRA rotation counterclockwise around a storm complex located over NE OK. During periods of convection, VIS and CIGs will drop to IFR or lower, with gradual increases between activity. Late tonight, precip should end from S to N with FG expected to develop in similar S to N fashion. Winds will be light today into tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 67 79 66 83 / 90 80 30 30 Camden AR 66 85 67 91 / 40 30 10 10 Harrison AR 65 77 64 82 / 90 70 20 50 Hot Springs AR 67 83 68 88 / 40 50 10 30 Little Rock AR 66 81 67 86 / 90 70 20 20 Monticello AR 68 84 68 89 / 60 50 20 20 Mount Ida AR 68 83 68 87 / 40 40 10 30 Mountain Home AR 65 77 64 82 / 90 80 30 30 Newport AR 68 81 67 84 / 90 80 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 68 83 68 88 / 80 60 20 20 Russellville AR 67 82 68 87 / 80 50 10 20 Searcy AR 66 81 65 85 / 90 80 30 20 Stuttgart AR 69 82 69 86 / 80 80 20 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ004>007-014>016-024- 031>033-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.