textproduct: Little Rock

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday Night) Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Light winds and high moisture levels have resulted in some areas of dense fog for portions of WRN into NRN AR during the overnight period...even as some pockets of light rain and DZ lifts north across central sections. Expanded the Dense Fog Adv a bit further east earlier in the night as the areas of dense fog were drifting further east.

Attention turns to the potential for widespread convection and possible SVR TSRA this afternoon/evening. A potent upper level shortwave trough currently over the TX Panhandle region this morning will lift ENE towards AR throughout the day...lifting NE into SWRN AR this evening. SFC low pressure will develop just downstream of this shortwave over NERN TX...also lifting NE over SRN AR. Convection will develop ahead of this shortwave and SFC low over NRN/NERN TX this afternoon...then spread NE over AR late this afternoon into the evening hrs. Expect this area of convection to lift NE of the state by around sunrise Fri morning.

As the upper shortwave lifts NE over AR...the trough will become negatively tilted...briefly strengthening before weakening by Fri morning. There will be some increased threat for seeing strong/SVR TSRA with this system...but looks like best overlap of instability and SHR will remain south of AR where SFC based convection will be more likely. However...an area of higher SFC based instability may creep into SWRN/SRN AR Fri evening...which will be the most likely areas in AR to see SVR convection. Cannot rule out some SVR TSRA further north...but the SFC based instability decreases rapidly the further north you go. However...just ahead of the upper shortwave axis...there could enough cooling aloft to give a pocket of increased instability with enhanced bulk SHR for some elevated SVR convection. This will be mainly where an increased threat for hail may develop...maybe an outside damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. Low level SHR looks impressive with this system...even as far north as central sections of AR. However...this looks to be far north of the area of SFC based convection. As a result...the best threat for seeing tornadoes will remain south of AR. Even so...may still see some potential across SRN sections of the CWA.

Given the progressive nature of the pattern...the upper shortwave will move fairly quickly across the state through tonight that the threat for heavy rainfall will be mainly localized. This may result in some isolated flash flooding...but widespread heavy rainfall looks limited given how fast the storms will shift east through tonight.

There could be some lingering precip chances on Fri into Fri night as another...though weaker...upper shortwave moves over the region Fri afternoon/night. However...the potential for widespread convection looks to be much lower on Fri into Fri night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Guidance continues to indicate a generally dry extended period with minimal rain chances at its onset. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooling off considerably in the later half of the period as upper flow flips from southwest to northwest.

The period initiates with a shortwave trough over the nations mid section and pulling off to the northeast. Best chances of precip will be over southern and central Arkansas early in the day but actual QPF is not expected to be very high. Temperatures are expected to top out in the 60s with southwest flow prevailing.

Another mild day is expected on Sunday as flow remains generally quasi-zonal in nature. A shortwave passing to the north of the state late Monday and Tuesday will drag a dry cold front through with the upper flow turning more west/northwest in response. High pressure will follow this boundary.

Temperatures will cool off but only to seasonal averages for late December/early January with another slug of colder air coming in at the conclusion of the period. GFS solution tries to develop another area of rainfall while the ECMWF is not having any of it. Will not bite on the GFS this far out and continue the dry forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas of dense fog continue across portions of WRN into NRN AR this morning...along with some patchy DZ. VIS should gradually increase by later this morning...but still remain MVFR. Convection will overspread the state by this afternoon...continuing tonight. Coverage of convection will then decrease from SW to NE by after midnight...but some fog/DZ will still be possible after midnight...along with maybe some spotty SHRA. Widespread VFR conditions are not expected through this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 56 49 61 47 / 40 100 20 10 Camden AR 63 52 65 49 / 90 100 0 10 Harrison AR 56 46 58 45 / 50 90 10 10 Hot Springs AR 60 51 62 47 / 90 100 10 10 Little Rock AR 59 52 62 48 / 70 100 10 10 Monticello AR 62 54 66 53 / 70 100 10 20 Mount Ida AR 61 49 62 45 / 90 100 10 10 Mountain Home AR 55 47 60 45 / 40 100 20 10 Newport AR 56 51 61 48 / 30 100 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 61 54 64 50 / 70 100 10 10 Russellville AR 59 49 62 47 / 80 100 10 10 Searcy AR 57 50 62 48 / 40 100 10 10 Stuttgart AR 59 52 62 50 / 50 100 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ004>007- 014>016-024-031>033-039-042>045-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138- 140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.