textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

-Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening...with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible

-Windy conditions into Monday

-Very cold wind chills tonight into Monday...along with well below freezing conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings

-Temperatures rebound by the middle of next week...with well above normal conditions by late next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A shortwave will exit the Rockies this morning...deepening as it moves east into the Plains. SFC low pressure will develop ahead of this upper shortwave over the central Plains...and move ENE towards the Great Lakes region tonight. A trailing cold front will then move rapidly SE through the state this afternoon...moving east of the state tonight. Much colder air will then surge south into the state tonight through Mon night. Many hazards will be expected with this system as it moves over the region.

The first hazard to discuss continues to be the threat for SVR convection. Forecast soundings suggest a persistent capping inversion ahead of the surging cold front...which should limit convection ahead of the front initially. However...given the rapid SE movement of the cold front and impressive large scale lift...expect the capping inversion to be easily overcome with the SFC frontal forcing. Very impressive dynamics are expected with the shortwave as it drops SE into the state...with plenty of wind energy expected to translate downward towards the SFC. As a result...damaging winds will be the primary threat expected...with winds of 60 to 70 mph possible with the strongest convection along the front. There may also be a threat for a few QLCS brief tornadoes along the leading edge of the convection. While not a primary threat...some hail may also be seen with any more discrete cells. Expect the SVR threat to rapidly end from NW to SE this evening as the front moves east of AR.

The next hazard to discuss will be very strong non-thunderstorm winds. Given the aforementioned impressive dynamics with the upper shortwave...and tightening SFC pressure gradient... there looks to be at least Wind Adv level winds possible. Initially...SRLY winds look to be in the 15 to 30 mph range sustained ahead of the front...with gusts over 40 mph at times. However...once the front passes...and the upper wave moves into the state...expect the NWRLY winds to increase further across the state late this afternoon into to night. These winds look to be in the 20 to 40 mph range sustained...and gusts of 45 to maybe over 50 mph at times. In fact...some higher terrain areas may see wind gusts well over 50 mph. Have initially used a 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM90 for wind/gust grids...but could see some potential these could still be a tad low.

Winter-like conditions will make a impressive return tonight into Mon as much colder air will arrive behind the front. There was some potential in earlier data to suggest some light snow behind the front...but latest guidance erodes most of the moisture in the cold air. As a result...the potential for snow looks much more limited at this time. If any snow were to be seen...it will be brief and with limited impacts...and mainly across NRN/NWRN sections.

Windy conditions combined with temps dropping into the teens and 20s by around sunrise Mon morning will result in wind chill values dropping into the single digits and teens across central to NWRN sections. The higher terrain areas of the Ozarks may see wind chill values get near zero at times. Some low to mid 20s wind chills will even be possible into SERN AR Mon morning.

While wind chill values will be impressively cold for this time of year...actual temperatures will also create some hazards as temps will drop well below freezing. This will result in a widespread freeze for all of the state both Mon and Tue mornings. Initially...a large portion of the state will see temps below freezing by sunrise Mon...with basically all of AR below freezing Tue morning. Temps will range from the upper teens to upper 20s for all but the SERN sections Mon morning....and mid teens to mid 20s for basically all of AR Tue morning. Given how warm conditions have been the last few weeks...and how responsive plant life has been to the warmer conditions...this cold may cause significant damage as a result.

Another hazard to discuss will be the increased fire weather threat on Mon. Depending on how wet fuels become with the frontal convection...winds will remain elevated on Mon afternoon. While temps will be below normal for highs Mon...very dry air will have filtered into the state as well. This will result in min RH values dipping to near or below critical levels...with some potential for seeing near Red Flag Conditions Mon afternoon. Will have to see how long the breezy winds persist to see how likely this scenario may be.

The cold snap will be short-lived as SRLY flow will return by late Tue and especially by mid-week. Upper level ridging will also be seen as the ridge to the SW expands towards AR. Temps by late in the forecast will be back into the 70s for most areas...and even some 80s by late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong SWrly winds wl cont over the FA ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt noted over NErn OK/NWrn AR near 18Z, w/ asctd TSRA along the frnt. Expect MVFR CIGs to persist thru the evng, w/ aforementioned TSRA extending along the cdfrnt, and gusty NWrly winds ensuing behind the frnt. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts and gusts near 40 kts wl be possible either side of the cdfrnt. MVFR CIGs should improve fm W to E later into the overnight PD near and beyond 16/06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 27 42 22 50 / 30 0 0 0 Camden AR 30 47 25 56 / 30 0 0 0 Harrison AR 21 36 20 52 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 28 43 26 54 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 30 45 26 53 / 30 0 0 0 Monticello AR 32 47 26 54 / 60 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 26 43 24 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 22 37 19 50 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 29 41 25 48 / 50 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 31 45 26 53 / 40 0 0 0 Russellville AR 27 43 23 55 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 28 44 22 51 / 40 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 31 43 26 49 / 50 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024- 025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130- 137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340- 341.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.