textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-Rain chances increasing into Monday with a front dropping south into the state

-Drier/warmer conditions on Tuesday as front lifts back north of the state

-The threat for areas of heavy rainfall increasing as a more persistent wet pattern looks to be setting up for portions of the state for the middle to latter part of this week

-Strong/SVR convection may also become a threat to keep an eye on during the middle part of this week and into the weekend depending on how the pattern evolves

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Some isolated to scattered convection was noted across portions of the area on Sat evening...with most recent activity limited to SWRN sections early this Sun morning as a weak upper wave passed SE over this area. A cold front was just started to drop south into the state from MO...which should gradually drop south/SW into the state through this afternoon. Latest guidance suggests this front will slow/stall somewhere over central sections of the state by early this Sun afternoon...say from near FSM to LIT to south of MEM. A new upper wave looks to move ESE along/north of this front this afternoon into tonight...with increasing POPs forecast along/north of the SFC boundary through Mon morning.

The SFC front will lift north late Mon and especially for Tue as flow aloft transitions form NWRLY into a more SWRLY pattern over the region. This will bring decrease POPs into Tue...as well as allowing for warming conditions and increasing moisture levels. This SWRLY upper flow pattern looks to become more persistent for several days through much of this week into the weekend.

With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week.

The first wave of organized precip may start on Wed as an upper shortwave lifts NE from OK into MO...with a SFC front dropping SE into NWRN sections of AR before stalling. SHRA/TSRA will become likely along/ahead of this front Wed through Thu. Some areas of heavy rainfall may be seen...along with maybe a few strong/SVR TSRA. Where the best chances for convection and widespread rainfall will be are somewhat uncertain at this time as there is uncertainty in where the SFC front will slow/stall...and how strong the upper shortwave will be as it lifts NE over the region. This will also dictate how organized any strong/SVR convection may be and what areas will be impacted.

Additional rounds of convection look possible later in the week into next weekend as more upper disturbances pass over the region and the SFC boundary moves around. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may end up...and timing of individual waves late next week. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN half of the state. Will continue to see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed to see where the heaviest rainfall will occur...and if/when any organized strong/SVR convection may be seen.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A boundary is nearly stationary across Arkansas and will remain positioned across central Arkansas for the duration of the forecast period from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Expect the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK to have CIGS and VSBY lower to IFR flight category for the duration of the period as a prolonged round of light to moderate rainfall will move across the these terminals. Flight category for northern terminals are expected to lower to MVFR and IFR for the majority of the forecast period. Elsewhere, the terminals of KHOT, KADF, KLIT, and KPBF may see vicinity showers, but degradation of flight category from VFR is not anticipated. At the far southeastern site of KLLQ, no rainfall is expected and flight category is anticipated to remain VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 62 48 76 / 80 60 10 0 Camden AR 54 80 56 80 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 43 64 51 78 / 90 40 20 10 Hot Springs AR 54 77 56 79 / 30 20 0 0 Little Rock AR 50 73 53 79 / 40 40 0 0 Monticello AR 56 79 57 79 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 54 77 55 79 / 30 20 0 10 Mountain Home AR 42 60 47 77 / 90 40 30 10 Newport AR 48 62 51 76 / 80 60 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 53 78 56 79 / 10 20 0 0 Russellville AR 50 72 52 80 / 60 30 10 0 Searcy AR 47 67 48 77 / 60 50 10 0 Stuttgart AR 52 74 55 78 / 30 30 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.