textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Low rain chances across mainly western Arkansas on Monday

- Increasing temperatures through Wednesday

- Expectations remain high for beneficial rainfall to occur across Arkansas from late week into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Main features in place across the CONUS early this morning include H500 cyclones off the Mid-Atlantic and northern California coasts, H500 ridging across the middle of the country and Hurricane Polo off the Baja Peninsula. Locally, mid-level NW flow will remain in place for one more day which will assist in some isolated shower/thunderstorm development across mainly western portions of the state.

From Tue to Wed, the mid-level ridge axis west of the area will shift east and be positioned from south Texas toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. At the sfc, ridging to the east will provide a return to srly flow across the state and temperatures will warm to well above normal values. As the heat peaks on Wednesday, daytime highs will be nearly 10 degrees above normal for late September.

Beyond Wednesday, confidence in various forecast elements begins to decrease. The western US H500 cyclone will be trying to make its way east of the Four Corners. Ahead of this feature, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo will be streaming northeast across the Southern/Central Plains. This moisture will be characterized by anomalously high PW values of 2 inches or more.

From Thu to Fri mid-level ridging across the Southeast begins to strengthen and will become a major roadblock for the SW cyclone. This will likely lead to the H500 low opening and lifting more northward toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes where enhanced zonal flow will be in place. How long it takes for this to happen will dictate time of arrival for precip across the state as well as how much precip falls. At this point, a slower arrival time of precip from west to east across the state is expected. This will provide a multi-day heavy rainfall event across portions of New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

GFS and ECMWF Ensemble data both remain optimistic in appreciable rainfall across Arkansas. Both outputs indicate a greater than 70% chance of more than one inch of rain through the period. Probs of greater than two inches of rain is greater than 40% between both models, with the GEFS output being higher than the ECMWF. What is agreed upon by both models is the highest rainfall totals remain likely across the western third to half of the state. Given the ongoing high wildfire danger and short/long term rainfall deficits in place, hopefully things will line up for widespread rainfall.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period with E/NE winds at less than 10 kts. A few showers are possible today, but coverage is expected to remain limited and no impacts to area terminals are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 55 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 89 60 92 65 / 20 0 0 0 Harrison AR 81 57 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 85 60 89 65 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 84 60 88 65 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 88 61 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 85 58 88 64 / 20 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 80 55 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 80 57 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 86 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 83 60 87 64 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 82 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 85 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.