textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected to continue through early next week.

- Severe weather potential begins Thursday Night/Friday Morning and will persist through Monday.

- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the period of Thursday Night through Monday Evening across the state of Arkansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

THURSDAY (TODAY):

In the upper lvls, a ridge axis will be positioned over Arkansas with a closed low positioned over southwestern Canada and shortwave pattern approaching the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a parent sfc low pressure center is progged to be across the northern Plains region of the CONUS with a cold front extending southward to a secondary low pressure center positioned across the vicinity of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with a dryline extending southward across Oklahoma and Texas.

Latest CAMS guidance depicts a situation where strong to severe thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Kansas are anticipated to develop into an MCS which is projected to enter the state of Arkansas late Thursday night into the early morning hours on Friday. The main hazards associated with the MCS would be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The timing of arrival of the MCS into western Arkansas is expected during a time of limited instability across the state overall, but the MCS will be in an environment across the western half of the state with plentiful amounts of shear and instability to lead to a few severe thunderstorms. See more below as the MCS is progged to continue tracking across Arkansas on Friday morning.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

In the upper lvls, a series of shortwave pulses will move over Arkansas with otherwise nearly zonal to west-northwesterly flow over the state. At the sfc, a cold front moves into Arkansas from the northwest and will track from northwest to southeast across the state.

Expect on Friday morning, a decaying MCS to be moving across the state. The size and speed of this activity will be paramount in the determination of, if any strong to severe thunderstorms develop across the state on Friday afternoon into Friday evening. If the activity is sluggish in exiting the CWA and state, then instability will be limited as the atmosphere will struggle to become unstable again to support additional development of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the converse situation is that the MCS moves quickly across the CWA and state allowing the atmosphere to become unstable via warming temperatures and low-level moisture return. If the converse situation comes to fruition, then strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible, but large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary concerns, a secondary hazard will be a tornado or two.

Into Saturday, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be highly dependent on what does or does not develop hours prior as the question of whether storms attempt to develop in a parameter space that is stable or unstable. A signal does exist for strong to severe thunderstorm potential on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Confidence is a tad lower for severe weather development on Saturday, but if the atmosphere can become unstable ahead of the frontal boundary in the form of a cold front which be moving across the state throughout the day, then strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be discounted.

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, shortwave pulses continue over Arkansas with a tad more digging or definition within the flow pattern for each shortwave. At the sfc, a boundary stalls across southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana on Sunday and retreats back northward as a warm front opening up a warm sector as a secondary cold front approaches Arkansas from the northwest.

On Sunday, another potential for the remnants of a MCS will exist late Sunday evening into Sunday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with any activity that does remain intact out of Kansas and Oklahoma moving into Arkansas. All hazards would be possible, but primary hazards would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. A secondary hazard would be the possibility of a tornado or two.

Into Monday, the warm front will retreat into the Mid-West region of the CONUS with an approaching cold front, thus opening up a favorable warm sector with ample heating and low level moisture. It is Monday which does look the best for severe weather as all hazards would be possible with any storm which develop on Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

Rain chances will stick around, but the severe potential is expect to become near zero as the cold front moves through the state on Monday, but a return to southerly flow and a stationary boundary in the vicinity is anticipated by mid-week. Stay tuned to the latest forecast discussion as the focus has been really pinpointed towards Thursday (today) through Monday as the risk of severe weather will be possible each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A large complex of TSRA is expected to be entering the northwestern portion of Arkansas during the beginning of the forecast period and move southeastward across the entire state during the day on Friday. In response terminals will experience surface wind gusts in excess of 35 knots along the leading edge of the TSRA activity. Flight category will quickly become degraded as the complex of storms approaches to as low as IFR for lowered CIGS and VSBY. All sites will return to VFR flight category by Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 64 75 60 / 20 60 100 70 Camden AR 83 65 79 62 / 20 10 70 80 Harrison AR 72 60 76 57 / 20 90 100 30 Hot Springs AR 79 64 75 60 / 20 30 90 70 Little Rock AR 80 65 77 62 / 20 20 90 80 Monticello AR 82 65 80 63 / 20 10 80 80 Mount Ida AR 74 64 75 60 / 20 40 90 60 Mountain Home AR 74 60 76 56 / 20 80 100 40 Newport AR 83 65 75 62 / 20 30 100 70 Pine Bluff AR 83 65 78 63 / 20 10 90 80 Russellville AR 77 63 76 60 / 20 60 100 50 Searcy AR 79 62 76 59 / 20 20 100 70 Stuttgart AR 83 66 77 65 / 20 10 100 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.