textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist into next week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the upcoming work week.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels will contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through the weekend.

-Low confidence exists for some rain chances to return Halloween weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some high level cloudiness over parts of western and northern Arkansas. Winds are light and variable with temperatures across the state mainly in the 50s to around 60s early this morning.

An analysis of 00z upper air H500 chart shows ridging over the central US with upper level troughing and a cut off low in the Desert southwest and troughing over the eastern seaboard. High pressure will remain in place across the state today with high temperatures statewide roughly running around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late October.

Both deterministic and ensemble guidance early this morning shows ridging over the central US holding firm today. By tonight into early Monday, upper trough over the Desert southwest will lift northeast into the the southern/central Rockies then into the northern Plains by Tuesday. In response to the upper trough lifting northeast into the northern Plains, the ridge over the central US will shift eastward will begin to flatten out. On the heels of the aforementioned upper trough, another upper trough will move onshore into the Pacific Northwest Monday, then quickly into the Great Basin region.

As we head into Tuesday, the ridge will slide into the southeastern US allowing southwesterly flow and a warming trend to commence across the state from mid week through at the end of the work week. As we head into Halloween, guidance brings another upper trough into the Pacific Northwest by Friday. Models show the upper trough digging and strengthening as it moves into the Great Basin Region by Halloween. As the trough progresses eastward, impulses rotating around the base of the trough will move across the central Plains keeping the energy and best dynamics north and west of the state on Halloween through early next week.

This scenario would keep appreciable rain amounts confined to the northwest and northern parts of the state. A look at the 12z ECMWF 90th percentile ensemble 24hr QPF amounts of half to three quarters of an inch mainly over the western part of the state and lesser amounts elsewhere for next Saturday and Sunday. The 12z mean ensemble of the ECMWF is even less optimistic with amounts of a quarter of an inch or less for the aforementioned period. The 12z 90th percentile GFS ensemble shows a half inch or less over the eastern two-thirds of the state with amounts nearing three quarters of an inch over parts of western and northwest Arkansas for next Saturday and Sunday. The mean GFS ensemble shows around a quarter of an inch over the northern two-thirds of the state with lesser amounts elsewhere next Saturday and Sunday. As we get closer to the event, amounts, timing and placement will likely change and will continue to monitor as model solutions reaches a consensus.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire forecast period. Expect an increase of high level cloudiness through the morning with BKN250 at all terminals by mid morning across the state. Light and variable winds early this morning and again after sunset this evening across the state. Light east to southeast winds will persist at all terminals through this TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 50 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 81 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 79 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 80 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 80 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 79 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 80 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 77 51 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 80 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 80 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 80 50 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 80 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 80 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.