textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

-Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening

-Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat

-Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today

-Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening.

Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low.

Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat.

Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A line of SHRA/TSRA across parts of northwest and western Arkansas will continue to push slowly east southeast across the state through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Along and ahead of the line of SHRA/TSRA, pockets of MVFR/VFR persist with recent observations showing temporary reductions to IFR as the line of SHRA/TSRA moved through KHRO. Expect a temporary reductions to IFR/MVFR as the line moves through the remaining TAF sites, then MVFR will prevail at most TAF sites through the end of the TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 75 62 75 / 60 40 40 60 Camden AR 68 82 65 80 / 60 40 60 80 Harrison AR 61 70 59 73 / 50 30 30 60 Hot Springs AR 67 80 64 77 / 50 30 50 70 Little Rock AR 67 79 63 77 / 60 30 50 70 Monticello AR 69 82 67 81 / 80 50 60 90 Mount Ida AR 67 79 66 76 / 50 30 50 70 Mountain Home AR 61 71 58 73 / 50 40 30 50 Newport AR 68 77 62 78 / 60 50 40 60 Pine Bluff AR 68 80 65 79 / 60 40 50 80 Russellville AR 66 78 63 77 / 50 30 40 60 Searcy AR 66 78 61 77 / 60 50 40 70 Stuttgart AR 69 80 66 78 / 60 50 50 80

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.