textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

-An unsettled pattern will continue to be present across the state as an upper level omega block will keep mesoscale or features at the surface nearly locked in place

-Temperatures over the forecast period are expected to remain near average to a few degrees below average over the forecast period compared to normals for this time of the year

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TUESDAY (TODAY)

In the upper lvls, an omega block becomes established at H500 with one upper lvl low positioned over the Sierra Nevada region of the CONUS and the other upper lvl closed low positioned over the Canadian province of Quebec.

At the sfc, a sfc low pressure center and attendant stationary front remain draped across the state of Arkansas with plenty of gulf moisture being advected into the state via light southerly to southeasterly winds from the sfc all the way up the atmospheric column to H500.

Expect continued elevated POPs across the CWA and state of Arkansas and the possibility of rain and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

In the upper lvls, the positioning of the omega block feature make little progress as the feature remains solidified overall over the CONUS. The one upper lvl closed low meanders slightly northward over the Pacific Northwest region of the CONUS and the second upper lvl closed low remains planted over the Canadian province of Quebec. The upper lvl flow pattern over Arkansas consists of light and variable winds.

At the sfc, the sfc low pressure center retrogrades back northwest near the confluence or regions of southeast Kansas, northwestern Arkansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southwestern Missouri. Over the duration of this period an attendant warm front is expected to lift into southern Missouri and then progress back near the Arkansas/Missouri border as a stationary front.

Expected a continued trend of unsettled weather as rain and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue to be present in the forecast over this period.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, the omega blocking pattern amplifies extending from the CONUS well into southern and central Canada. At the sfc, a stationary front will remain positioned across Arkansas keeping rain and isolated chances elevated across the CWA and state of Arkansas.

It is important that while each day is not expected to be a deluge by any means that appreciable opportunities for rain and isolated thunderstorms will be present over the entire forecast period. A scattered type of precipitation activity will likely be observed as some places will observe rain on one day while others may not, but the chance will exist either way and remain elevated given both the pattern setup aloft and at the surface.

Latest guidance over this seven day period continues to portray a picture of rain totals for the period between 1 to 2 inches statewide. In response, it is understandable that while rain chances will exist over the period that most days will not amount to a washout by any means.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Some low cigs/vsby will persist through the next few hours before conditions improve to VFR at most terminals throughout the day. Highest confidence in RA/TS activity will be across the northern half of the state through the late evening hours. Winds will be light and variable through the period. Could see some low cigs occur near the end of the period, after 27/06z. The highest confidence for this is across E/SE portions of the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 64 83 67 / 80 30 30 70 Camden AR 85 66 84 66 / 30 10 80 70 Harrison AR 77 62 81 64 / 80 20 40 60 Hot Springs AR 81 66 82 67 / 50 10 80 80 Little Rock AR 80 65 83 67 / 60 20 60 70 Monticello AR 84 68 84 68 / 50 10 80 70 Mount Ida AR 81 66 81 68 / 60 10 80 80 Mountain Home AR 76 62 82 65 / 80 30 30 70 Newport AR 80 65 85 68 / 80 20 20 70 Pine Bluff AR 82 67 84 68 / 50 10 70 60 Russellville AR 80 65 83 68 / 70 20 70 80 Searcy AR 80 63 84 66 / 70 30 50 70 Stuttgart AR 81 67 84 69 / 60 30 60 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.