textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

-Dry and warm conditions persist into late this week

-Possible tropical system to pass east of Arkansas late this week into the weekend...with chances for rainfall best over the eastern portions of the state, and points further east

-Drier and warm conditions return late in the weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The dry but warm conditions will continue for much of the rest of the week as NW upper flow will transition to an upper ridge over the region by late this week. Low level moisture levels will remain generally low...but will see dewpts rise slightly in the coming days. However...afternoon temps will continue above normal...with highs back in the 80s and 90s. Precip chances will remain low...especially with the upper ridge over the region.

By late this week into part of the weekend...the tropical disturbance over the WRN Gulf this morning looks to make its way towards the NRN Gulf coast...or generally along the AL/MS coastline. Guidance suggests this system strengthening as it approaches the coast...then lift north east of AR on Sat. The system will then lift NE from there by late this weekend away from the state. This is the general trend the guidance and NHC has been suggesting as of late...with the local forecast also falling within this same general idea.

With the given path of the eventual tropical system being east of AR...most of the impacts will also remain east of AR. However...there may be some increased POPs over ERN sections...with chances rapidly decreasing over central and especially WRN sections. Any deviation from this current path will greatly impact POPs...and some of the latest guidances has a more ERLY trend. The best confidence is that ERN sections of the state have the best potential for seeing any meaningful rainfall out of this system.

By early next week...drier and more stable air will return to the region...with upper ridging developing over AR. Chances for precip will again be low...and afternoon temps will return to well above normal levels.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Expect winds to remain less than 10 kts sustained...and at times...variable in direction. VFR conditions should persist through this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 86 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 90 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 86 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 86 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 89 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 86 55 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 85 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 88 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 86 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 86 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 87 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.