textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Heat advisory in effect for parts of eastern and east central Arkansas through 8 PM.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the state after midnight tonight as a cold front moves through. Strong storms will be possible along the Arkansas/Missouri border.

- Unsettled conditions are expected to linger into early next with several additional rounds of rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Overall, quiet conditions are seen across the FA this morning as the area is under broad flat ridging. Upper flow remains quasi-zonal and is expected to remain so through the remainder of the weekend. Early this morning, temperatures remain warm with readings currently in the 70s for the majority of the state.

Surface analysis places an ill defined boundary over the northeast corner of Arkansas with guidance moving it further north through the remainder of the night. Another very warm and humid day is expected across the forecast area with heat index values in excess of 105 degrees for parts of eastern and east central Arkansas. As such a a heat advisory has been issued.

The heat advisory only goes as far north as Jackson/Independence counties as guidance is showing a cluster of showers/thunderstorms developing over northeast Arkansas during the late afternoon hours. CAMS guidance has backed off on the development of this cluster over the past few runs but the environment continues to support its development. Another complicating factor for convection Saturday afternoon with be the outflow boundary that moved across central Arkansas Friday evening. Boundary is currently residing over western Arkansas and could be a focal point for additional convection during peak heating.

Attention will then turn to a cold front moving into north Arkansas at or slightly after midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning. Strong storms can not be ruled out primarily along the Arkansas/Missouri border where instability will be its highest. Strong gusty winds and some hail will be the primary concerns. The severe threat does diminish through the night but rain chances remain as the front crosses the state and stalls out along the Arkansas/Louisiana border Sunday night and Monday with precipitation chances continuing through Sunday for central and southern parts of the state.

With broad troughing covering the region, low pressure will traverse the aforementioned boundary on Monday with additional rain chances across once again, the central and southern parts of the state while the north looks to be mainly dry. After a generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday, another system will be approaching the region on Thursday.

Concerning temperatures, widespread upper 80s/mid 90s are expected on Saturday with plenty of humidity as well. Temperatures do cool off across the north and to a lesser extent over central sections on Sunday with widespread 70s on Monday behind the boundary. The "cool down" is short lived as temperatures rise back into the 80s/90s to close out the period. Heat headlines may be needed once again next Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered convection will continue to impact NRN terminals this evening...with some gusty winds and MVFR or lower conditions under the most intense activity. This may move into central sections this evening. Another round of convection will move south into the state later tonight into Sun morning. The potential for convection will be lower for Sun afternoon...but will still see some convection possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 83 63 80 / 70 30 10 0 Camden AR 76 89 68 78 / 10 70 80 70 Harrison AR 68 76 58 76 / 90 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 75 85 66 79 / 50 70 70 40 Little Rock AR 76 86 67 79 / 50 50 50 10 Monticello AR 78 89 69 78 / 10 50 80 60 Mount Ida AR 75 84 66 79 / 50 70 60 40 Mountain Home AR 69 77 59 77 / 90 20 0 0 Newport AR 73 84 65 80 / 60 30 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 87 68 78 / 30 60 70 50 Russellville AR 74 83 66 81 / 80 40 20 0 Searcy AR 73 86 65 81 / 70 40 20 0 Stuttgart AR 77 87 68 79 / 40 50 40 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ016-025-033-034- 045>047-056-057-064-065-069.