textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Above normal temps (near record temperatures possible), low RH values, and gusty afternoon conditions expected Monday.

- Elevated wildfire danger possible across northwest to central and southern Arkansas Monday afternoon

- Well above normal temperatures will persist for much of the state through the week ahead.

- Low rain chances possible across west to northwest Arkansas by Wednesday and through Friday along a stalled front.

- A cold front will move into the region late in the week with much cooler temperatures possible by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Recent objective analysis depicted a perturbed H500 flow pattern over the CONUS, w/ shortwave troughing over the Ern US, and highly amplified longwave troughing positioned acrs the Wrn US and Pac-NW. Intermittent ridging remains in place over the Cntrl US, and wl continue to contribute to above-normal temps for the Ozark Plateau and Natural State on Mon. Under SWrly flow, cyclonic flow over the Cntrl Plains wl continue to amplify the local sfc pressure gradient, w/ gusty SW winds expected acrs much of the state Mon aftn.

Above normal temperatures (near or at record values), gusty winds, and low aftn RH values wl contribute to an elevated wildfire danger for much of the state again on Mon aftn.

By Tues, the aforementioned Wrn US trof wl continue to translate Ewrd, w/ incrsg agreement amongst GFS/ECMWF deterministic solns that the basal region of this trof wl become semi-cutoff over the Four Corners region, and detach fm the background Polar Jet. This wl amplify a fetch of SWrly H500 flow over the Srn Great Plains, triggering rampant poleward moisture transport. Current base guidance indicates a plume of 65-70F dewpoints extending over much of the state by Tues aftn to evng.

Wed thru Fri, there is incrsg consensus on the evolution of the aforementioned semi-cutoff Four Corners upper low, and another progressive shortwave progged to quickly maneuver over the Canadian Rockies and greater BC region, into Cntrl Canada and the Nrn US. Per the latest 00Z guidance, consensus is trending towards the ECMWF solns, w/ positively tilted troughing quickly digging into the Great Lakes and NErn US by late week. At the sfc, aforementioned cyclonic flow over the Cntrl Plains wl result in a weakly organized frnt, that wl serve as the focal point for incrsg rain chances fm Wed thru Fri over the Cntrl Plains, and portions of the Ozark Plateau, though current QPF guidance continues to advertise a sharp cutoff of rainfall fm 1 to 2 inches over NWrn AR to less than a half inch towards Cntrl to Srn AR.

Late in the PD/Fri-Sun, a strong fall cdfrnt remains progged to quickly sweep Swrd thru the Srn Plains, driven by a strong continental Canadian high pressure system. Current timing suggests the frnt reaching NWrn AR Fri mrng, and quickly moving thru the state by Fri night. Lingering rain chances wl persist acrs the state Fri as the frnt encounters antecedent anomalous moisture, but PoPs should quickly taper off heading into the weekend, with much cooler and drier air filtering into the state.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, fcst values have trended upwards, though Nrn portions of the state could still see frost to near freezing condns Sat and Sun mrngs, depending on how strong resultant CAA is behind the cdfrnt. That being said, latest NBM probabilistic guidance for freezing temps has diminished acrs Nrn AR to mostly less than 5 percent.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the PD, w/ gusty SW winds of 10 to 15 kts thru the day Mon, w/ gusts in excess of 15 to 20 kts acrs NWrn to Nrn terminals. Winds should relax beyond 00Z Mon evng.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 92 66 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 93 65 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 89 69 91 72 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 91 66 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 93 66 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 91 66 92 71 / 0 0 0 20 Newport AR 92 65 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 65 93 70 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 92 67 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 93 64 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 94 67 95 72 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.