textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

-Heat index values will get near or exceed 105 for much of central to southern Arkansas...with a Heat Advisory in place as a result

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather is forecast this afternoon into tonight for northern/northeast Arkansas as a cold front moves across the state

-Primary hazards with any strong to severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and a very low...but non-zero tornado risk

-Somewhat cooler and drier air expected behind the cold front for the weekend into early next week

-Temperatures will increase by the middle to latter part of next week...with heat headlines possible once again

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT (TODAY/TONIGHT):

A Heat Advisory will be in place today across most of central and southern Arkansas as a warm front is progged to track northeastward across the state. The boundary will lead to a slight uptick of air temperature, dewpoint temperatures, and the approaching cold front will lead to a possibility of compressional heating which will elevate heat index values and heat risk across the state. A potential upgrade of heat products to an Extreme Heat Warning was contemplated for the CWA, but decided to remain conservative with a Heat Advisory given the trend of rain cooled air moving into the CWA via northwestern and northern Arkansas as of 2 AM CDT in addition to increasing cloud cover forecasted overall throughout the day.

Beginning this afternoon, from west to east across the northern and central portions of the state, a parameter space will become conducive for a first round of convection ahead of the approaching cold front to develop. A region of moderate instability coupled with deep-layer shear is progged to be in place across much of northern and central Arkansas. Analysis of both the 00Z and 06Z suites of guidance depicts MLCAPE between 1,000 J/kg and 2,000 J/kg present within the timescale and overall deep layer shear which will be present across this region of instability as well. Simply put, both moderate instability and adequate shear for the development of a supercell or two will be possible. Storm mode confidence does remain low for the first round of activity which is expected to develop.

Into this early evening and continuing into the late evening hours, as the cold front sweeps across the state. Analysis of latest guidance continues to trend towards moderate instability and adequate shear available across northern and central Arkansas. The latest CAMS indicate that the storm mode along the cold front will be multicellular and quickly becoming linear.

Expect the main hazard of any storms that do manage to become severe this afternoon into this evening to be damaging wind gusts, but across far north-central Arkansas and far northeastern Arkansas a very low, but present tornado potential will be present. It will be a must to pay attention throughout the day to both rounds of storms expected to develop ahead and along the boundary throughout the day.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

A cooler and drier airmass is progged to occupy the state behind the cold front which is forecast to move across the state on Friday. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region and overall temperatures near to below normal will be observed over this three- day stretch. The cold front is expected to completely clear Arkansas, but become a stationary front within the Mid-South region of the CONUS which will keep limited opportunities for POPs in play across eastern Arkansas given the close proximity of the boundary to the eastern tier of the state.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

An elongated upper lvl ridge begins to strengthen over the entire southern tier of the CONUS extending from over the Southwestern region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region. Consequently, temperatures begin to increase overall and a hot and dry pattern will once again take control of the forecast. Into the middle of the upcoming week, heat products will once again likely be warranted across most of the state and POP chances will diminish.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Regional sat imgry depicted lingering mid lvl clouds over the FA, w/ much denser high cirrus over the MI River Valley fm aftn convection. Thru the overnight PD Fri, a sfc frnt wl move SEwrd into the FA, ushering in gusty NWrly winds by Sat mrng to aftn. Some precip wl lkly accompany the frnt acrs Nrn to NErn to possibly Cntrl AR thru 06Z Fri night, w/ precip covg quickly waning thereafter. Expect dry condns Sat, w/ gusty NWrly winds of 10 to 15 kts, and VFR condns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 85 68 87 / 60 0 0 0 Camden AR 77 93 69 90 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 67 80 65 85 / 40 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 76 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 78 92 71 90 / 20 0 0 0 Monticello AR 78 95 71 91 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 73 90 67 89 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 69 79 66 85 / 60 0 0 0 Newport AR 74 86 70 87 / 60 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 77 92 70 89 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 74 90 70 92 / 30 0 0 0 Searcy AR 74 89 70 88 / 40 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 77 90 71 88 / 30 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039- 042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.