textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist across much of the state Wednesday and Thursday along with gusty southerly winds

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Already seeing changes underway across the state as srly flow returns, both T and Td values are several degrees higher than this time yesterday. Will continue to see further moisture transport into the region today with Td values expected to be in the 60s F areawide by this evening. Highs today will be well above normal again as the H500 ridge axis continues overhead, expect temperatures to climb into the 90s F across much of the state this afternoon. Srly winds will also be elevated with gusts above 20 mph expected at times, especially across western parts of Arkansas.

After today, the main focus of the forecast continues to be a slow moving H500 low over the SW US interacting with an anomalously high moisture plume from the remnants of Polo. As the storm system makes slow progress eastward it will encounter resistance from ridging across the SE US.

As the mid-level low drifts east it will contribute toward a multi-day heavy rainfall event that will impact portions of Oklahoma, Texas and nearby areas. By later this week the H500 low will lose intensity, open and be absorbed by northern stream enhanced zonal flow.

For Arkansas and nearby areas this means rain is expected to slowly move in from west to east from Thursday evening through Saturday as a sfc cold front approaches. While previous model runs indicated widespread heavy rainfall potential was expected across the state, recent data continues to suggest a lower QPF event for the Natural State. The main focus for more than 1-2 inches of rain remains across western Arkansas with precip amounts tapering off and becoming less uniform toward the MS River.

While several inches of rain would go a long way toward improving the state's current high wildfire danger and drought conditions, any rainfall is welcome at this point. Accompanying the rain chances and in the wake of the cold front will be several days of much cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures may even be seen for several days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Afternoon mid to low level CU has dissipated over the last hour or so. An advancing upper level cloud deck will begin to encroach on the area overnight tonight. VFR, but mostly broken to overcast conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds are expected to remain out of the south and gusty until mid-morning Thursday where they will begin to lay down from SE to NW across Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 72 91 70 / 0 0 10 80 Camden AR 95 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 60 Harrison AR 89 71 85 66 / 0 0 50 90 Hot Springs AR 93 72 91 70 / 0 0 20 70 Little Rock AR 94 73 91 72 / 0 0 10 70 Monticello AR 94 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 50 Mount Ida AR 92 70 88 66 / 0 0 40 80 Mountain Home AR 91 72 87 67 / 0 0 30 90 Newport AR 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 70 Pine Bluff AR 94 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 60 Russellville AR 93 72 89 69 / 0 0 30 80 Searcy AR 95 70 93 70 / 0 0 10 60 Stuttgart AR 96 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.