textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A few scattered PM showers are possible over the next couple days; Rainfall should not amount to much in any particular location

- Heat Advisories in effect for portions of the state through Sunday

- Upper level ridge ensures hot/dry conds persist the next seven days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Summer-like pattern set to continue across AR beneath an elongated upper ridge. This persistent ridge has brought above average temps and below average precip to many locations over the past several weeks. There are some winners in regards to August monthly precip, but that does not speak for the majority of the state which ended up at varying degrees of below average monthly/seasonal rainfall.

A few stray showers will be possible over Srn AR Friday afternoon/early evening as weak upper level energy moves E to W around the Srn periphery of the ridge. Additional stray scattered showers will be possible Saturday afternoon/early evening for the same reason/location as described on Friday. These times of day are favored due to peak heating coupled with maximum instability. Lastly, some showers will be possible on Sunday afternoon/evening associated with backdoor cold front pushing in from the OH Valley but keep in mind that the large scale pattern will work to inhibit convection. All of these precip chances are <20% with little to no appreciable rainfall expected in an particular location. This is pretty much it as for rain chances over the next week, perhaps even longer based on long range ensemble guidance.

The upper ridge is progged to strengthen heading through the weekend, increasing large scale forcing for subsidence over the Srn MS Valley. This will work against PoP development through much of next week. As the ridge intensifies, temps are expected to climb into the upper 90s to >100 degrees. Heat index values should range from 100-110 most afternoons. Given this, a heat advisory is in effect through Sunday evening for the AR River Valley, Cntrl AR, and much of Ern AR where apparent T's near or greater than 105 overlap with Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A brief reprieve from heat index values is looking more likely on Monday and some of Tuesday with the arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary. Relief should be temporary as winds switch to the S/SW late Tuesday into Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy all but 6 of 75 AR counties. These 6 counties were mainly confined to N-Cntrl into Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in the last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the forecast, decreasing soil moisture/plant moisture will worsen drought conditions and increase the statewide wildfire threat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds are expected later this morning into the afternoon, with perhaps a stray SHRA over Srn AR but did not mention at any terminals due to low confidence. Winds should be S/SE at around 5-10 kts with gusts less than 20 kts. Winds should relax after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 77 104 77 104 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 73 99 73 101 / 0 10 10 10 Harrison AR 75 98 74 98 / 0 10 10 0 Hot Springs AR 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 98 76 101 / 0 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 74 99 74 100 / 0 10 10 10 Newport AR 77 100 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 76 102 76 104 / 0 10 0 10 Searcy AR 76 101 76 102 / 0 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230- 237-238.