textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

-Unsettled pattern will provide continued daily rain chances across the state.

-Near to below normal temperatures expected through the end of the work week.

-Severe weather chances are very low, some locally heavy rainfall is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Overall H500 pattern looks to remain in place the next couple of days with cutoff lows on either end of the CONUS divided by steep ridging across the middle of the country. Extending east from the western US cyclone is a mid-level trough axis from SE Colorado toward Houston, TX. This feature will struggle to lift north as it works against the ridge in place across the Upper MS River Valley.

At the sfc, an area of low pressure across southeast OK will also slowly lift north Thursday into Friday. With these features in place, widespread shower and thunderstorm development is expected across the state and surrounding areas. As PW values approach or exceed 2.00" at times across the area, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Late evening and overnight CAMS suggest additional bands of precip developing to the east of the low (across AR), persisting through at least the late evening hours. Some localized swaths of heavy precipitation are likely, but confidence in location and areal extent remain low. Similar to Wednesday evening, some localized flash flooding will be possible once again.

Mid-level ridging will become more dominant across the region by late weekend into early next week which will limit precip coverage. This will also lead to slightly warmer temperatures as well. Confidence remains low regarding the evolution of the pattern through the middle of next week as guidance remains varied.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Scattered convection continues to lift north this morning...with some brief MVFR conditions expected under this activity. Outside of the precip...some low CIGs were occasionally occurring...but weren't widespread at this time. However...do keep a mention of the lower CIGs until later in the morning. Later in the morning will also be when additional convection will become possible again from the south...with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible into the afternoon/evening hrs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 67 79 66 / 80 90 80 30 Camden AR 82 66 85 67 / 60 30 50 20 Harrison AR 76 65 78 65 / 80 80 90 20 Hot Springs AR 81 67 83 68 / 50 40 60 10 Little Rock AR 81 67 82 67 / 60 60 60 20 Monticello AR 82 68 84 68 / 70 40 60 30 Mount Ida AR 80 67 82 68 / 50 30 70 10 Mountain Home AR 77 64 77 64 / 80 90 80 30 Newport AR 81 68 80 67 / 70 80 80 40 Pine Bluff AR 82 68 83 68 / 70 50 50 20 Russellville AR 81 68 82 68 / 60 60 60 20 Searcy AR 81 66 81 66 / 80 80 70 30 Stuttgart AR 82 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.