textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- No real improvements in wildfire danger/drought conds until maybe mid/late part of next week for mainly northwest half of the state

- Rain chances return to west and northwest Arkansas this weekend

- Better rain chances (30-60%) return mid/late part of next week mainly across parts of west and northwest Arkansas.

- Long range models are trending towards less rainfall across portions of central, east and, southeast Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Upper air analysis of the 12z data shows a deep cut off low moving northeast along the Atlantic seaboard. A long wave trough was observed across the Pacific Northwest with a short wave traversing the central Plains across the central Plains over Kansas this afternoon.

Satellite this afternoon shows mid and high level cloudiness streaming across the state ahead of a short wave trough moving across Kansas. Temperatures range from the upper 70s across parts of north and northeast Arkansas to the 80s elsewhere across the state. By the afternoon, short term models and CAMs shows isolated showers and thunderstorms making it as far east as northwest and northwest Arkansas this evening. As we head into Sunday, similar weather will be observed with temperatures to today and additional chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of north and northwest Arkansas.

A look at ensemble and deterministic guidance early this afternoon shows the aforementioned short wave will lift north and east by Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will begin to build northward around Sunday night. The ridge of high pressure will build and expand eastward as the ridge axis will move east in response to a digging and deepening trough and cut off low along the US west coast. This will promote south to southeast winds bringing warmer air northward int the state.

By the middle of the week, the axis of the high pressure will move over the state. The aforementioned continues to deepen with the cut off low moving south of the four corner region around Tuesday. This will push the ridge of high pressure over Arkansas by mid week, then east of the state and eventually into the southeastern US by the latter part of next week. Guidance then shows the cut off low and trough will move into the Texas panhandle around Thursday with both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic solutions showing the cut off low dissipating as trough ejects northward into the central Plains around Friday.

This will bring a front just west of the state into the central and southern Plains by late next week. A consistent and subtle signal with ensemble members continues to depict the axis of greatest QPF mainly remaining west of the state along the west and northwest perhipery of the high pressure centered over the southeastern US. If the ensemble members are correct, this would mean bring less rainfall to the eastern two thirds of the state with parts of western and northwest Arkansas the most likely to potentially see appreciable rainfall late next week. In addition to ensemble members showing the axis of higher QPF remaining north and west of the state, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF continues a downward trend in potential rainfall totals.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for afternoon high temperatures through the latter part of next week. As we head into next weekend, guidance shows cooler and drier air filtering into the state bringing temperature to or just below normal for afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Predominate VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with mid and high level cloudiness streaming across the state. Expect light south to southeast winds at KHRO and KBPK with east to northeast winds at KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ. Isolated showers are possible across parts of north/northeast Arkansas this afternoon/evening, but confidence remains too low to place in northern TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 58 82 59 83 / 0 10 10 0 Camden AR 61 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 61 83 61 83 / 30 50 30 10 Hot Springs AR 62 89 63 87 / 0 10 20 10 Little Rock AR 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 20 0 Monticello AR 63 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 61 90 61 87 / 0 10 30 20 Mountain Home AR 59 81 60 83 / 20 20 10 0 Newport AR 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 63 86 63 85 / 10 10 20 10 Searcy AR 60 85 60 86 / 0 10 20 0 Stuttgart AR 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.