textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- A weak weather system will move across the state today bringing precipitation chances back to the forecast. The best chances of rain will be over the east and northeast.

- Rainfall amounts will not be very high with around a quarter of an inch at the most expected.

- Temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 70s today with widespread highs in the 40s and 50s this weekend. Temps warm again early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Overall the upper flow remains highly amplified this morning with expansive ridging over the western CONUS and subsequent downstream troughing along the east coast. Shortwave trough caught up in the prevailing flow will bring precipitation chances back to the forecast area.

Satellite imagery this morning shows mainly mid to high level moisture over the region at this time. South to southwest surface flow is keeping temperatures anywhere from the upper 40s to upper 50s. Guidance continues to show moisture increasing through the reminder of the night with generally light precipitation developing towards sunrise over primarily the central part of the state.

The short wave trough will have slightly better moisture to tap onto as it pushes east with the highest QPF over the E and NE parts of the state. Some may be lucky enough to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain but even this amount of precipitation will have little impact on the expanding drought conditions over the state.

Precipitation will spread to the east and northeast during the day, clearing the Mississippi River by mid evening. A cold front will follow this disturbance resulting in a wide range of temperatures across the state today with readings ranging from the lower 70s over the southwest to the upper 40s in the northeast corner.

High pressure to the north of the region and continuing northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures on the cooler side this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s. These numbers, while much cooler than what we have seen of late, are actually very close to climatological averages for early January.

Cool down will be brief as broad upper ridging builds back over the area for early next week. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s return for Monday through Thursday with lows in the 40s and 50s. Precipitation chances return mid week as another disturbance moves out of the southern plains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Upper system moving across the terminals today will result in occasional MVFR ceilings and light precipitation. In the wake of this system, ceilings are expected to drop to IFR conditions as low stratus return. Winds will average less than 10 knots through the period with a general east to northeast component.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 51 37 51 30 / 70 10 0 0 Camden AR 69 45 58 36 / 20 10 0 0 Harrison AR 55 38 50 30 / 40 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 60 44 58 36 / 30 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 57 42 54 34 / 50 10 0 0 Monticello AR 67 48 57 37 / 30 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 62 44 60 36 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 52 36 50 29 / 30 10 0 0 Newport AR 49 38 48 30 / 70 20 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 63 44 54 34 / 50 10 0 0 Russellville AR 57 43 57 33 / 50 0 0 0 Searcy AR 53 38 52 30 / 70 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 58 42 51 33 / 50 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.