textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CST Thur Mar 5 2026

- Above normal to well above normal high temperatures through early next week. A few places may tie or break daily high temperatures through Friday and early next week.

-Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms likely across the state on Friday and early next week.

- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will lead to a risk for localized flash flooding across the state through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CST Thur Mar 5 2026

IR/WV imagery late tonight shows a short wave trough gradually pushing east across the central plains with an impulse rounding the base of the trough late this evening. This impulse coupled with the cold front draped over parts of eastern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas is generating enough ascent to produce strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma into northwest and now western Arkansas. Latest CAMs analysis continues to show individual semi discrete storms will congeal into a line of showers and thunderstorms across western Arkansas during the early morning hours. The showers and thunderstorms over western Arkansas will have trouble moving into central and eastern Arkansas due to a stable environment, thus any shower or thunderstorms that does move into central and eastern Arkansas will quickly dissipate. A lull in activity is expected on Thursday afternoon with partly cloudy to cloudy skies with southerly flow and high temperatures approaching record highs on Thursday afternoon. The record high temperatures at Adams Field in Little Rock is 82 degrees set back in 1918.

As we move into Friday, another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in in the forecast with the highest chances currently highlighted by SPC's Day 2 Outlook. Another shortwave will eject out of the four corners region late Thursday night into Friday night as a longwave trough over the southwest US continues to amplify, featuring an embedded mid-level jet stream/vorticity max across the central Plains. Across the state, ample moisture will be in place with upper 50 dewpoints across the northern half and lower 60s across the southern half. Deterministic GFS has CAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg coupled with the low level jet in the 40-50kt range Friday afternoon into the evening hours across western and northwest Arkansas. Additionally, bulk shear values over the aforementioned areas will be in the 30-40 kt range Friday afternoon and increasing to over 50 knots during the overnight hours in sync with the nocturnal LLJ. The primary hazards across the slight risk area across western Arkansas will be damaging winds and large hail but a few tornadoes are also not out of the question.

Due to ongoing drought conditions across the state, rainfall is greatly needed. A look at mean NBM 12 hour probabilities for 1 inch of rainfall are the highest over parts of far western Arkansas, then just over 40 percent in an areas north of I-30 and south of I-40 to as far west as western part of Pulaski County. NBM mean probabilities elsewhere were 30 percent over the western half surrounding the aforementioned areas and 25% or less over eastern Arkansas. Nonetheless, this scenario will have a marginal impact with ongoing drought conditions.

As we move into Saturday, trough moves across the state dragging a cold front through the state with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. The front push into far southeastern Arkansas by Saturday night with cooler and drier air working into the state behind the front. By Sunday, models show the boundary lifting north and ridging over the southeastern US allowing warm moisture air to transported north back into the state leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures.

Into next week. A cutoff low associated with the system from Friday will stall out over the Baja peninsula over the weekend. This will be picked up by a trough early next week, and could bring yet another round of severe weather. In the long range guidance there is still a lot of disagreement of positioning of the low as it moves east and the amplitude of the system. A more northern system would favor more of an isolated severe risk into heavy rain event. A further south system would have a window for more widespread strong to severe storms with all hazard types possible.

Nonetheless, return to southerly flow will have dew points rebound into the mid 60s area wide by 0z Tuesday. This will help keep temps above normal late into next week before the cold front with this next system drops us down to normal temps into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Prevail VFR conditions through the overnight hours across all TAF sites. Just before sunrise, prevail southerly flow that continues to advect moisture northward will also allow for MVFR ceilings to overspread the state from south to north. Some areas of patchy IFR are not entirely out of the question on Friday morning, but confidence is too low to place in TAFs at this time. Gusty south winds are possible across TAF sites as early as 15z with gusts within the 20-25 kt range possible. Just outside the period, LLWS is possible across the the state Friday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 61 79 63 75 / 20 30 80 80 Camden AR 63 83 64 76 / 10 20 80 100 Harrison AR 61 77 58 68 / 20 40 90 50 Hot Springs AR 62 81 63 76 / 20 30 90 80 Little Rock AR 62 81 65 76 / 10 20 80 90 Monticello AR 64 84 68 76 / 0 20 50 100 Mount Ida AR 61 80 61 75 / 20 40 90 80 Mountain Home AR 60 78 59 71 / 20 20 90 50 Newport AR 62 79 64 76 / 10 30 70 90 Pine Bluff AR 62 83 65 75 / 0 20 70 100 Russellville AR 60 81 62 76 / 30 30 90 70 Searcy AR 59 81 63 76 / 20 20 80 90 Stuttgart AR 63 81 65 74 / 10 20 70 100

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.