textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Cooler temperatures expected through this work week

- Rain chances (20-30%) returns late this weekend/early next week

- No real improvements in wildfire danger/drought conds the next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Low stratus was expanding out of the OH/TN Valleys into portions of N-Cntrl and NE AR this morning via infrared satellite imagery. A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over SW AR towards daybreak before activity diminishes later on this morning. Today, skies will become partly cloudy on NErly winds of 10-15 mph. Highs this afternoon should range from the upper 70s to lower 90s. Heat index values will be close to actual air temps.

On a larger scale, the upper pattern will feature another upper ridge building in across the lower/middle MS Valley regions over the next couple of days with a pair of troughs invof the Desert SW and E Atlantic Coast, respectively. Near the surface, high pressure will be centered over the OH valley providing NErly winds to AR over the next several days. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched over the region, albeit modifying slightly each day into the weekend. The good news is no heat headlines are expected this week as dew pts remain at a comfortable level thanks to said NErly winds.

A pattern shift is anticipated across the region by the weekend with flow transitioning to the NW. A system is anticipated to traverse this NW flow, bringing increased rain chances (30-40%) to NW half of the state. Surface winds will switch back to the S/SW ahead of this system. Upper level and low level winds appear to be weak during this time period therefore the threat of severe weather appears very low. High temps should climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows increasing into the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Rain chances will increase once again late in the period in regards to a potential trough moving across the Cntrl/Srn CONUS. Spatial and temporal differences remain with this system, but early indications suggest this might be our best rain chances over the next seven days. Return flow will increase the potential for beneficial rainfall as PW's and dew pts recover through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR condns have resumed acrs the FA, and are expected to prevail thru the PD. Aftn vissat imgry depicted post cdfrnt stratus acrs the OH River Valley, w/ some lower cloud decks moving in to NErn AR. Expect minimal impacts to Nrn terminals thru Wed aftn. Otherwise, occasionally gusty E-NErly winds wl prevail thru the evng, w/ no other sig wx anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 57 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 62 86 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 56 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 61 84 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 61 84 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 64 85 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 59 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 56 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 58 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 60 85 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 60 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 58 83 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 61 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.