textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Decreasing afternoon rain chances through the weekend

- Dangerous heat/humidity returns this weekend into early next week

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A few widely scattered showers were ongoing across SW AR early this Friday morning, otherwise conditions were calm and skies were mostly clear. Temps were holding steady in the 70s. Today, highs should increase a few degrees more than what was observed on Thursday; anticipating max T's to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Heat index values are expected to range from 95 to around 105 degrees later this afternoon.

By the weekend, a lingering upper level closed low situated over Wrn TX/Nrn Mexico is expected to weaken and retrograde as an expansive ridge builds into the Cntrl CONUS from the Nrn Plains. At the surface, high pressure should be situated along the Nrn Gulf Coast providing SW to Wrly winds to the state through mid week. Temps and humidity will build in the absence of cloud cover and dwindling afternoon precipitation chances. AR is anticipated to reside on the Ern fringes of the ridge by middle part of next week which could reintroduce low-end rain chances to portions of N/NE AR late in the period. Due to the presence of NW flow aloft by middle part of next week, there is a possibility of a backdoor cold front by Wednesday which could bring temps down across at least the NE half the state. If the front moves through on Wednesday, temps on Thursday should be cooler across most if not all the CWA. Given this, the hottest days during the forecast period appear to be Monday and Tuesday.

Temp wise, readings will climb back into the lower and mid 90s through the weekend. By early to middle part of next week, highs may range from the mid and upper 90s to near 100 degrees in places. NBM probabilities of high temps reaching or exceeding the century mark resides between 30-70% on Monday and Tuesday, spanning from the AR River Valley, into portions of Cntrl AR, into portions of E and NE AR. On Monday, these probabilities also highlight Nrn and Srn AR. Excessive ground moisture from recent rainfall should hinder temps from exceeding 100 across Cntrl/Ern half of AR, nonetheless it will be hot and very humid during this period of time.

For apparent T's of 105 or greater (heat advisory territory), probabilities of exceedance stand at 10-20% roughly along and E of I30/I57 corridors on Sunday, 40-70% across the SE two-thirds of AR on Monday, 50-90% for all but the higher elevations of the Ozark and Ouachita Mtns on Tuesday (looks to be most widespread heat this day), and for Wednesday, 30-70% across the Srn two-thirds of the state.

Increasing thresholds of apparent T's to 110 or greater (extreme heat warning territory) and probabilities of exceedance stand at 10- 20% roughly along and E of I30/I57 corridors for Monday, 20-40% along and E of the I30/I57 corridors on Tuesday, 20-40% along and S of the I30 to I40 corridors on Wednesday. In summary, a combination of heat headlines will likely be needed as early as Saturday or Sunday, but especially Monday into Tuesday, and Wednesday if the front is slower to enter the state from the NE. Heat risk also supports Monday and Tuesday as the hottest days with many locations in the Major category.

By Thursday, if the frontal boundary does move through on Wednesday, there should not be a need for heat headlines but we will continue to monitor for upcoming changes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. With that said, brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible mainly across northern terminals as pop-up thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Winds could be gusty associated with storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 75 95 75 95 / 10 10 10 20 Camden AR 73 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 73 91 73 93 / 10 10 20 20 Hot Springs AR 74 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 73 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 72 91 73 92 / 10 10 20 10 Newport AR 75 95 76 96 / 10 0 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 74 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 74 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 74 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 75 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.