textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

-Expect highs today to be at least 20 to 30 degrees above normal across most of Arkansas.

-Daily high temperature records likely to fall across the state again today.

-Increased wildfire danger across northern and western Arkansas Sunday.

-A dry cold front is expected to move through the state from north to south tonight into early Monday which will provide much cooler temperatures for a couple days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Temperatures early this morning are sitting in the upper 60s to lower 70s with light south to southwest winds with a few high clouds. An analysis of satellite and the 500mb chart this evening shows the state continues to be under the influence of west/northwest flow with the eastern periphery of the deamplifying ridge of high pressure over the state that is centered in the Desert southwest region. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the ridge will continue to flatting over the Desert southwest through Sunday afternoon. At the same time, a cold front over the central Plains will dive southeast toward Arkansas and enter the state by late this morning into the afternoon hours.

Ahead of the front,the pressure gradient will tighten across the state with south to southwest wind gusts ahead of the boundary in the 20 to 25 mph range. The winds quickly veer to the north/northeast behind the front with some gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range before becoming light and variable overnight into Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure over will build into the state behind the front with slightly cooler and drier air filtering in bringing temperatures closer to climatological normals for highs for late March. By Tuesday, winds will veer from the northeast to east, then southeast by Tuesday evening as the ridge of high pressure over the central plains moves east into the Ohio valley region.

Temperatures on Monday into Tuesday will trend closer to normal due to cooler and drier is pulled south around the periphery of the ridge of high pressure. As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will soar back into near record to record territory for both days likely in numerous locations across the state. The forecast high temperature for Wednesday is set at 85 degrees would tie the record set back in 1935 with the high temperature of 89 degrees on Thursday breaking the record of 88 degrees set back in 2020.

As we head into Friday and next weekend, a cold front will dive southeast of the central Plains by Friday morning and push through the state around Friday afternoon into Friday night. The airmass ahead of the front appears to be quite dry ahead of the front. As of now, the current WPC forecast of isolated showers differs from current thinking locally and would not be surprised to see isolated POP chances pulled in future packages across parts of north and northeast Arkansas.. The front will south of the state on Saturday with cooler and drier air with east to northeast winds before veering to the south/southeast on Sunday and soaring some 5 to 7 degrees above normal for afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. South to southwest winds will ramp up at or around 22/15z with sustained winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with gusts within the 20 to 25 kt fairly common with some locally higher gusts possible. A cold front will dive southeast and enter the state around 22/18z and push southeast across the state through early Monday. Winds will veer from S/SW to N/NW then eventually NE early Monday morning with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts not out of the question behind the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 91 52 65 45 / 0 10 0 10 Camden AR 92 57 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 Harrison AR 95 47 64 45 / 0 10 0 10 Hot Springs AR 91 56 70 50 / 0 10 0 10 Little Rock AR 91 54 68 48 / 0 10 0 10 Monticello AR 89 59 71 52 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 56 70 49 / 0 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 95 47 64 43 / 0 10 0 10 Newport AR 87 50 64 48 / 0 10 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 90 55 68 50 / 0 10 0 0 Russellville AR 95 54 70 49 / 0 10 0 10 Searcy AR 91 51 67 45 / 0 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 87 55 66 50 / 0 10 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.