textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

-Another bout of locally heavy to excessive rainfall, totals near 2 to 4 inches, will be possible across portions of northwest Arkansas through the later hours on Monday morning.

-Rainfall chances will diminish, with hazardous heat conditions persisting through the work week, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees daily.

-Rain chances return to the forecast by late week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted incrsg covg of convective development acrs the Ozark Plateau region where an H850 LLJ and region of strong wrm advection was recent analyzed. Elsewhere, precip covg has dwindled and continued to move Ewrd fm earlier aftn activity, in tandem w/ a passing H500 shortwave.

Thru the next 12-18 hrs, 00Z suite of CAM and hi-res ensemble guidance has highlighted portions of NWrn AR for potential heavy to excessive rainfall fm a slow-moving and back-building MCS. 90th percentile HREF solns suggest QPF in excess of 2 to 4 inches wl be possible thru the 12Z to 18Z window early Mon mrng, w/ recent rainfall of up to 1 inch having fallen in the region in the past day, resulting in some soil priming. The greatest flash flooding concerns would lkly be more terrain driven, and obviously, where greatest convective training occurs.

Elsewhere on Mon, hot and humid condns are on deck w/ gusty Swrly winds prevailing. Area temps are set to climb to the low 90s, w/ portions of Cntrl AR and the AR River Valley reaching heat index values of 100 degrees or more.

Tues and thru the remainder of the fcst PD, H500 flow wl briefly transition to shortwave ridging acrs the Srn Cntrl US, bcmg more zonal by mid to late week. Precip chances wl diminish acrs the FA, w/ daily high temps reaching the low to mid 90s at most locations. Antecedent humidity levels wl contribute to the first week of hazardous heat of the summer acrs the FA, w/ local heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees, and WBG temps reaching the mid to upper 80s. Of more concern wl be limited overnight cooling, as current low temp fcst values indicate widespread mid to upper 70s fm Tues to Thurs nights.

Towards the end of the work week and into next weekend, there is still some signal for returning rain chances based on the progression of a longwave trof and asctd sfc cdfrnt, set to move thru the Cntrl to High Plains thru the Thurs-Fri timeframe, though discrepancies still exist amongst the latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF solns. Nevertheless, the presence of at least strong Wrly flow and subtle troughing remains present amongst most global ensemble solns.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Convection from the earlier MCS is now located over the SE corner of the state and will likely impact KPBF and KLLQ for the next several hours. Light precipitation will remain possible through the day but it will remain very scattered in nature. Mainly VFR conditions are expected although brief MVFR conditions will remain possible as the system clears. Winds will remain from the SE around 10 kts but will be much higher and more variable in and near convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 76 93 76 / 70 20 10 0 Camden AR 91 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 80 73 89 73 / 80 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 88 76 93 77 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 85 76 93 77 / 40 0 0 0 Monticello AR 91 76 95 76 / 20 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 87 76 91 77 / 20 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 82 73 90 73 / 80 10 0 0 Newport AR 85 76 93 77 / 30 20 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 88 76 94 77 / 20 0 0 0 Russellville AR 86 77 93 77 / 60 0 0 0 Searcy AR 82 75 94 75 / 40 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 84 77 93 77 / 50 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ006>008- 015>017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-121-122-130.