textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of east, central and southern Arkansas on Wednesday

- Isolated showers & t'storms possible in northwest, west, & southern Arkansas on Wednesday

- Dry conditions build in late into the week through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Ridging pattern continues to keep day to day conditions very similar. Near record highs and humid conditions will keep afternoon heat index values above 100 across much of the state. Winds remain weak and generally out of the south with an occasional gust. An western wobble and intensification of the H500 ridge will shift afternoon rain chances to northwest, west, and southern AR Weds. CAMs have honed in on NW AR for the most widespread coverage starting mid-afternoon. This should then slowly spread southward across the state becoming more scattered as it goes. Within any showers or storms an isolated strong wind gust and frequent lightning will be possible. Rainfall totals will likely remain under half an inch bringing no meaningful relief to drought conditions. Any shower activity will begin to dissipate from north to south after sunset.

Mid range model consensus has the H500 ridge continuing to intensify over the region to near record heights over 600Dm over the mid- south. Heat headlines will likely need to be extended with some slight changes in the area possible closer to the weekend. Drier air begins to move into the region late Thursday and likely shuts off rain chances until late in the weekend. Any recovery of fuels and soil moisture from any precip will quickly eroded as daily soil moisture evaporation rates of near 0.25 in almost equal expected rainfall totals from these showers and t'storms.

Some relief may be in site in the mid to long range models. They are hinting at a more active pattern starting to work its way into the region late in the weekend to next week as the ridge weakens and may allow for a shortwave and attached cold front to introduce limited rain chances across the area. Any relief would likely be short lived as the ridge wants to build back in quickly next week.

Models continue to advertise cooler temps at the end of the period that are replaced with a more realistic well above average temp under the current pattern. This is likely in part due to model climatology that is being skewed by normal temps dropping around 10 degrees by the end of the month. Any advertised heat relief should be taken with a grain of salt until a discernible breakdown in the ridging pattern occurs.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Expect VFR flight category to persist across all TAF sites between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. VCTS has been included in the first couple of hours across the forecast period for the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, KLIT; however, storms have been very isolated and short-lived and will continue to trend downward in coverage and intensity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 75 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 73 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 73 96 72 96 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 74 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 76 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 72 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 72 98 72 98 / 0 10 0 0 Newport AR 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 73 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 74 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 73 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 75 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016- 017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-121>123-130-138-230-238.