textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

-Oppressive heat will continue this Sunday and into some of this coming work week

-Upper ridge will move west early this week...which will bring some slight relief for portions of the state

-Some chances for afternoon convection return to the forecast today...and especially for Monday as a weak front moves into the state

-Stronger front may bring more significant relief from the heat late this week into the upcoming weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the region once again...with mainly light winds allowing for temps to slowly dip into the upper 70s to mid 80s early this Sun morning. Expect lows to drop back into the 70s to near 80 by around sunrise.

The center of the upper ridge remains over portions of the state early this Sun morning...though this ridge looks to start slowly shifting wast starting this afternoon. Some slight weakness in the upper ridge by this afternoon could allow for some very isolated convective activity to develop over portions of the state...mainly across NRN/NWRN sections. Most areas will remain dry however...with highs in the upper 90s to over 100...and heat index vales likely 100 to over 110.

The upper ridge will shift further west for Mon...allowing for a weak SFC front to drop south into the state. Chances for isolated and even some widely scattered convection will increase as this front drops south into central AR by Mon afternoon. This activity may allow for temps Mon afternoon to remain below 100 over NRN AR...but could still reach 100+ over central sections before any precip develops. SRN sections will still see the very hot conditions persist...as precip chances should remain a bit lower in this region of the state.

Keep heat headlines persisting into Mon afternoon/evening...though some adjustments could be done for Mon if temps/heat index values stay lower behind the front for NRN sections. However...even with the upper ridge shifting further west on Tue...and NW flow aloft is seen into the middle of the week...may still need additional heat headlines into the middle of the week.

Upper ridging looks to return some by the middle/latter half of the week briefly...with hot conditions expected. However...a new front looks to move into the region late this week into the upcoming weekend as a more substantial upper shortwave drops south over the region. This late forecast front looks more aggressive...which may provide a bit more relief and better rain chances by the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain common through the period. A weak cold front will drift south into the state tonight into Monday which will provide NW winds to northern AR terminals. A few showers/storms will be possible across the northern half of the state from late this afternoon through the overnight hours but coverage is expected to remain very limited. Areas away from the front will continue to see W/SW winds up to 10 kts with some occasional gusts above 15 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 79 99 74 98 / 20 20 10 10 Camden AR 77 101 75 101 / 0 20 0 0 Harrison AR 75 93 70 95 / 20 20 10 10 Hot Springs AR 78 102 75 101 / 10 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 81 102 77 102 / 10 20 10 10 Monticello AR 80 101 78 101 / 0 20 10 10 Mount Ida AR 77 102 74 101 / 10 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 74 92 71 94 / 20 20 10 10 Newport AR 78 98 73 97 / 10 20 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 78 100 75 100 / 0 20 10 10 Russellville AR 78 102 75 102 / 10 20 10 0 Searcy AR 78 100 74 99 / 10 20 10 10 Stuttgart AR 80 101 76 100 / 10 20 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004-005-014-024-042- 043-052>056-062>064-066>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212- 213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ006>008- 015>017-025-031>034-039-044>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.