textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

-Daily hazardous heat and humidity will persist through the work week, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

-Widespread rain chances return to the forecast by late week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Thru the week ahead, daily hazardous heat and humidity levels wl be the main talking point acrs the FA. Expect high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s, with heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees. The greatest concern for heat risk and hazardous heat levels wl exist acrs the AR River Valley, and much of Ern AR and the River Delta regions.

By Fri and into next weekend, there is reasonable consensus on the evolution of an upper trof set to move acrs the Great Lakes regions, w/ asctd sfc cyclonic flow and a trailing cdfrnt extending SWwrd into the Ozark Plateau and Srn Plains. As this frnt slowly approaches the FA on Fri, widespread, but low magnitude PoPs are expected to spread SEwrd.

The aforementioned frnt is progged to stall out acrs the Ozark Plateau vcty, and become the focus for daily PoPs thru the weekend. Latest NBM guidance suggests weekend QPF totals around 1 to 3 inches acrs at least the Wrn half of the state. Generally, a stalled summertime frnt and at least some component of Wrly flow aloft is a precursor signal for persistent and widespread QPF potential in the Srn Plains.

If you go by the last full day's suite of deterministic guidance, you may think it's time to panic based on swaths of much higher QPF acrs Wrn AR during the Sun-Mon timeframe. However, mass fields seem to indicate these higher QPF progs have largely been driven by mesoscale features in the model output, and are still variable in time and space at the end range of the current fcst PD.

Ensemble guidance has not latched onto any significant scenarios either, but rather is highlighting widespread rainfall potential for the region through at least early next week. For now, the trends will drive the fcst and key messages, and it does appear there wl be a favorable pattern for some widespread rainfall, including possibly higher totals above current NBM base values, but confidence is still low on what the ceiling may end up reaching.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals over the duration of the forecast period from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. A few sites will gust in excess of 20 knots during the early afternoon before surface winds lose their gusting condition on Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 93 76 93 78 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 89 73 88 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 93 77 92 79 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 93 77 93 79 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 94 76 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 91 77 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 90 73 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 93 77 94 78 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 93 76 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 93 77 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 93 76 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 93 77 93 79 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006>008-015>017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-121-122- 130.