textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

-Elevated wildfire threat again today due to low afternoon humidity and elevated winds

-Rain chances increasing Sunday into Monday with a front dropping south into the state

-The threat for areas of heavy rainfall increasing as a more persistent wet pattern looks to be setting up for portions of the state for the middle to latter part of next week

-Strong/SVR convection may also become a threat to keep an eye on later next week depending on how the pattern evolves

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

SFC high pressure has moved east of the state...with some SRLY SFC flow returning to the state. This SRLY flow will increase some this Sat...and with ample sunshine...temps will again be well above normal in the 70s and even some 80s for highs. While dewpts will attempt to increase a bit...ample mixing should keep dewpts in some areas down...resulting in low RH values this afternoon for WRN and NWRN sections. As a result...the wild fire threat will remain elevated. Winds should continue to remain below critical levels at least.

A new cold front looks to drop south/SW into the state late tonight into Sun...with some increased chances for rainfall returning to the forecast...as well as some cooler conditions. This front looks to settle across some portion of the state by Mon...maybe even south of the state. An upper level disturbance will pass SE over the state along/north of this SFC front...with some continued chances for rain for portions of the state into midday Mon. By late Mon into Tue...flow aloft looks to transition to more SWRLY direction over the region...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. Temps will warm back above normal as a result...but will also see increasing moisture levels across the region.

With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week.

The first wave of organized precip looks to start on Wed as an upper shortwave lifts NE from OK into MO...with a SFC front dropping SE into NWRN sections of AR before stalling. SHRA/TSRA will become likely along/ahead of this front Wed through Thu. Some areas of heavy rainfall may be seen...along with maybe a few strong/SVR TSRA. Additional rounds of convection look possible later in the week into next weekend as more upper disturbances pass over the region. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may end up...and timing of individual waves late next week. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN half of the state...which has shifted slightly SE as of this morning. Will continue to see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed to see where the heaviest rainfall will occur...and if/when any organized strong/SVR convection may be seen.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Some gusty winds will continue through sunset, then become light through the overnight hours. Some mid and low clouds will stream into the state overnight into Sunday morning. Isolated showers are possible across northern Arkansas tonight, then across the western half of the state Sunday morning as the front pushes south into northern Arkansas. There could be a few afternoon gusts Sunday afternoon in the 15 kt range as the cold front moves south into the central/southern part of the state near the end of the TAF period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Some gusty S/SW winds will be seen across W/NW AR through this afternoon with lighter winds noted elsewhere. Winds will be lighter overnight through the end of the period, becoming easterly through Sunday morning. Some showers may be possible across northern AR terminals with mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 48 61 43 / 0 10 40 50 Camden AR 81 53 80 50 / 0 10 10 0 Harrison AR 79 46 60 42 / 10 20 70 80 Hot Springs AR 80 54 73 50 / 0 20 30 20 Little Rock AR 80 53 69 48 / 0 10 30 30 Monticello AR 80 53 78 53 / 0 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 79 54 75 49 / 0 20 30 30 Mountain Home AR 80 45 59 40 / 10 20 60 80 Newport AR 78 50 60 46 / 0 10 30 50 Pine Bluff AR 80 53 74 51 / 0 10 20 10 Russellville AR 81 53 68 47 / 0 20 40 50 Searcy AR 79 49 65 45 / 0 10 30 40 Stuttgart AR 79 53 69 50 / 0 10 20 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.