textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

-Very dry air will settle across the area today...but winds will be much lighter than Wednesday

-Additional surges of dry and cold air will move into the region through the weekend

-Combination of very dry air and elevated winds may create some more significant wild fire concerns on Saturday

-Coldest air settles across region Saturday night into Sunday...with lows in the teens for many areas Sunday morning. Some single digit lows may be seen for northern portions. Wind chills may approach zero up north...and single digits/teens further south Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

After a breezy Wed in wake of a new cold front...SFC high pressure is moving into the region early this Thu morning...causing the winds to gradually lessen early this morning. These winds will remain much calmer for this Thu afternoon...but very dry air will settle across the state in the wake of the latest front. These very dry conditions will create an elevated wild fire threat...but winds will remain generally on the lighter side.

The SFC high will shift east by tonight...with SRLY flow returning through Fri morning. However...another new cold front will drop SE through the region on Fri/Fri night as a new shortwave drops SE around the base of the larger scale trough over the Great Lakes Region. Another upper wave will pass SE on Sat...with even more cold...dry air moving into the state. Winds and RH levels may approach more critical levels on Sat with this system...resulting in more significant wild fire concerns. RH values may dip below 25 percent...and winds may remain elevated at 10-20 mph sustained...and gusts approaching 30 mph at times.

With this latest cold surge on Sat...well below normal conditions will be seen over the weekend into early next week. Lows by Sun morning may drop into the teens for most areas...maybe even some single digits possible. Wind chill values Sun may drop to near zero at times across NRN sections...and single digits and teens further south.

The dry forecast will persist into early next week. However...the larger scale upper trough axis over the Great Lakes region will shift some to the east by late in the forecast...with some relaxing in the NW flow over the region. SRLY SFC flow will increase over the region...with some increased moisture levels possible. Chances for some rainfall look to return to the forecast as a result...but overall confidence in seeing beneficial rainfall is fairly low this far out in time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Other than some LLWS late in the TAF period, no other aviation impacts anticipated. Skies will remain mostly clear, aside from some high clouds across the northern and central terminals later today. Winds will gradually back from northerly to southerly by the end of the period, generally aob 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 45 34 52 28 / 0 0 10 0 Camden AR 49 33 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 46 34 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 49 33 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 47 33 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 48 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 50 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 45 31 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 43 33 51 28 / 0 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 47 33 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 48 31 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 45 29 53 26 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 45 33 53 31 / 0 0 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.