textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

-Dry and warm conditions persist into late this week with a few afternoon highs approaching record values.

-Tropical Storm Isaias to pass east of Arkansas sometime this weekend. Best chance of appreciable rainfall is across far eastern Arkansas.

-Drier and warm conditions return late in the weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Satellite this afternoon across Arkansas only shows some afternoon diurnal cumulus across the southeast portion. Temperatures this afternoon across the state are in the mid to upper 80s. Aloft, morning 12z H500 map shows the state currently resides within northwest flow with upper level ridge across parts of the western US.

Deterministic guidance shows the ridge will stay in firm control across the state bringing above normal to well above normal temperatures to the state. A few areas could approach record values for high temperatures on Thursday and Friday across the state. For Little Rock on Thursday, the record high temperature is 96 degrees set back in 1963 and 92 degrees on Friday set back in 2010.

As we head into the weekend, both the ECMWF and GFS both showing the subtropical ridge building into Florida as well as parts of the midsouth and Arkansas. As we head into Friday, Tropical Storm Isaias will move into the central Gulf by late Thursday night, then approach the Gulf coast sometime Friday night into Saturday morning. The remnants of what is left of Tropical Storm Isaias after landfall will stay east of the state with Arkansas on the dry side of the system with the best chance for any precipitation across parts of eastern and southeast Arkansas. The state will see an uptick in moisture pulled north from the Gulf ahead of the tropical system Friday into Saturday bringing some mid and high level cloudiness to the eastern half of the state. In addition to cloudiness, breezy conditions are possible the eastern half of the state on Saturday, but it is entirely dependent on the position of the remnant low in proximity to Arkansas.

By Sunday, the remnant low from Isaias will move into the Ohio River Valley with high pressure building back into the state allowing temperatures to soar well above normal for early to mid October across Arkansas. Little to no chance of rainfall is expected from late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

SKC conds are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming E/NE at less than 10 kts on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 61 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 60 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 61 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 62 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 62 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 61 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 61 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 60 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 61 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.