textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday and Wednesday; large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible

- Quiet weather is expected Thursday through the weekend.

- Much cooler and drier weather in the forecast for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Satellite and surface observations this morning shows an expansion field of low stratus across a large part of Arkansas. The low stratus field is due to moisture advection from south to southwesterly flow and weak ascent across the state from a nearly weak low amplitude shortwaves rounding the base of the parent shortwave/ cutoff low located over Baja California. Temperatures this morning were in the lower 70s mainly across south Arkansas with mid to upper 60s observed across the northern half of Arkansas early this morning. Dewpoints across the state ranged from lower 70s across far southern Arkansas to mid to upper 60s across the southern two- thirds of the state with lower 60s across the northern one-third of the state.

A dry start to today is expected to be mainly dry across the state during the morning hours. By this afternoon, a weak amplitude shortwave will track across the state triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the overnight hours of early Wednesday morning across parts of the state. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe this afternoon through the overnight hours on Wednesday with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Temperatures across the state are expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year for afternoon hours across the state.

Showers and storms will initially develop over parts of southwest and southern Arkansas this afternoon. An analysis of BUFKIT,DESI, and other short term hi-res model soundings indicated storms that due form will be elevated in nature due to ample amount of dry air above the inversion in lower and mid levels. The combination of SB & MU CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and bulk shear of 40 to 50 knots will drive the damaging wind and large hail threat on Tuesday afternoon. As we progress into the late afternoon through Wednesday morning, model soundings from BUFKIT, DESI, and other hi-res models shows modest clockwise curvature with the lowest layer of the atmosphere posing a low threat for one or two tornadoes.

The storms that would be more likely to produce a tornado would be those who deviate southeast of the mean flow. There is also a marginal risk for localized flash flood across parts of northwest, western, central, northeast and northern Arkansas due to the threat of training storms. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" inches anticipated through Wednesday night across a large portion of Arkansas with locally higher amounts possible.

As we move into Wednesday, a cold front will push across the state in the afternoon and evening hours across the state before clearing the state around midnight. Ahead of the front, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as the upper trough drags an attendant cold front across the state. Ahead of the trough/front on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bulk shear values of 50-60 kts are expected along with a strengthening LLJ that will increase from 30 kts in the afternoon into the early evening hours on Tuesday of 30 kts to over 50 kt and CAPE values in the 500-1000J/kg along with robust ascent/forcing ahead of the trough/front will lead to storms quickly growing upscale into a QLCS. The primary threat for Wednesday will be damaging winds with a secondary risk of hail through the threat is low. A few tornadoes are also possible.

Behind the front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will filter into the state with high temperatures topping off in the upper 50s across parts of east and northeast Arkansas with lower to mid 60s elsewhere under the influence of high pressure. By Friday through early next week, the ridge of high pressure will move east of the area allowing for south to southwest flow to bring much warmer air with a gradual increase of moisture allowing temperatures to surge into the lower to mid 70s Friday. Temperatures will top off in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. A cold front within northwest flow will dive southeast bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Behind the front, more than half of the GEFS ensemble members indicates that a much cooler airmass will move into the state with temperatures around 10 degree plus below normal for high temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The central and southern sites across the state will begin this forecast period in MVFR flight category for lowered CIGS. Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected to begin impacting the state by Tuesday afternoon and remain throughout the forecast period. A few terminals will return to VFR flight category briefly on Tuesday late afternoon before returning to MVFR CIGS later Tuesday evening. Low level wind shear will be present at the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Expect surface wind gusts to be present at all terminals in excess of around 25 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 80 65 72 39 / 40 70 100 20 Camden AR 81 64 75 43 / 50 50 100 70 Harrison AR 80 62 70 36 / 30 80 100 0 Hot Springs AR 78 62 72 41 / 60 70 100 40 Little Rock AR 80 65 73 42 / 50 70 100 50 Monticello AR 82 67 79 47 / 30 30 90 80 Mount Ida AR 78 62 74 39 / 70 90 100 30 Mountain Home AR 81 62 71 36 / 20 80 100 0 Newport AR 79 66 72 42 / 40 70 100 40 Pine Bluff AR 81 65 75 43 / 40 50 100 70 Russellville AR 80 64 74 39 / 60 80 100 20 Searcy AR 80 63 73 40 / 50 70 100 40 Stuttgart AR 80 66 74 43 / 40 60 100 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.