textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over western half of Arkansas through late Friday night, including all severe hazards.

- Severe weather possible Saturday afternoon to evening over southeast half of Arkansas.

- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will lead to a risk for local flash flooding across the state through early next week.

- Additional severe weather chances possible across the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Above normal high temperatures expected through early next week, with some locations nearing daily records.

..Remainder of the forecast period

Thru the end of the weekend, a brief lull in precip is expected for most of the day Sun, w/ the cdfrnt washing out over SErn AR, and driving higher PoPs over far SErn AR. Srly sfc flow should quickly resume by Mon, w/ incrsg covg of PoPs for much of state by Mon aftn to evng. Quick recovery of sfc moisture, and a weak upper shortwave moving acrs the Ozark Plateau could yield some organized storm potential, but confidence remains on the low end for additional severe weather chances Mon.

Tues thru Wed, attention wl turn towards a cutoff H500 low over the Baja of CA, that has been progged to move back into zonal flow over the CONUS, and translate ENEwrd, ejecting across the ARKLATEX and Mid-South. Sfc cyclonic flow is progged to move Ewrd acrs the OK/TX panhandle region, w/ rich BL moisture in place over much of the Srn Cntrl US. Current GFS/ECMWF H500 pattern solns have trended NWrds, which would position favorable overlap of shear/instability over the FA thru the Tues/Wed timeframe. For now, wl maintain messaging about additional severe weather potential thru mid-week next week, but uncertainties still remain concerning finer details.

Additional bouts of heavy rainfall wl also be possible w/ this activity, concerns of flash flooding wl be dependent on antecedent rainfall thru the weekend. Latest NBM5.0 guidance suggests 50-75th percentile QPF of 1.5 to 3 inches over much of the state thru the Tues-Wed timeframe. If higher-end rainfall occurs over the next few days, then additional heavy rainfall could yield more widespread flooding concerns.

Beyond Wed and thru the end of the week, a strong cdfrnt is progged to clear the state to the SE, w/ much drier air settling in, resulting in seasonal temps and settled weather condns resuming.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

SHRA/TSRA activity will increase overnight as a cold front sweeps across the state. Conds should go from VFR to IFR with CIG's dropping in conjunction with VIS decreasing. Wind shear is mentioned at many sites overnight. Activity will overspread terminals from W to E. Conds may not be reduced over SE sites until Sat AM. Trailing SHRA are expected behind TSRA with gradual decrease in precip from W to E on Sat/Sat PM. Winds will shift from the SW to NW in the wake of the frontal passage. Conds should improve to MVFR/VFR to end the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 82 64 76 47 / 20 90 90 40 Camden AR 85 65 76 56 / 50 80 100 70 Harrison AR 76 58 68 40 / 40 100 70 20 Hot Springs AR 81 63 75 51 / 40 90 90 70 Little Rock AR 82 66 76 52 / 20 90 90 70 Monticello AR 84 67 78 59 / 20 60 100 80 Mount Ida AR 79 61 75 48 / 50 100 90 60 Mountain Home AR 77 60 70 41 / 20 100 80 20 Newport AR 82 66 75 50 / 20 80 100 50 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 76 54 / 20 80 100 70 Russellville AR 82 63 75 48 / 40 90 80 40 Searcy AR 82 63 76 48 / 20 90 100 60 Stuttgart AR 85 66 75 53 / 10 80 100 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.