textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

-Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state through early Friday morning

-Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for Friday

-Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted a decaying QLCS moving ENE acrs Ern OK, and wl lkly be approaching NWrn AR near 12Z Thurs mrng. SOme lingering precip activity is expected acrs NWrn to Nrn AR thru the day Thurs.

Thurs thru Fri, a progressive H500 shortwave trof wl quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole amplifying over the CONUS, w/ strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Time of arrival on this cdfrnt remains consistent, w/ the frnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn.

Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air.

With no appreciable precip expected acrs Srn to SErn AR, there is some concern for elevated to near critical wildfire danger over portions of SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 75th to 85th percentile.

Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 10th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Cold front will drop SE into the state this evening...with some isolated/widely scattered SHRA possible across the NRN/WRN sections overnight into early Fri morning. While dominant VFR conditions should be seen...some reduced flight conditions are possible with this precip/FROPA...mainly across NRN terminals. Further south...expect mainly the wind shift and increasing winds behind the front as it progresses SE...especially during the daylight hrs on Fri. Some gusts over 25 kts are possible from the NW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 52 64 44 63 / 10 10 0 0 Camden AR 58 70 45 68 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 45 57 40 61 / 70 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 53 67 44 66 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 58 66 46 66 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 62 69 48 67 / 0 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 48 59 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 Newport AR 55 65 45 64 / 10 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 51 65 43 66 / 40 0 0 0 Searcy AR 54 66 44 64 / 10 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 58 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ065>069.