textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

-Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible by the end of the work week and possibly longer.

-No significant rainfall is expected for the next week or so with drought conditions continuing to worsen.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Satellite early this morning shows some high level cloudiness streaming across the state from the southern Plains. These clouds are the result of mid level moisture being transported by the subtropical jet. Light and variable winds are currently being observed across the state with temperatures early this morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s statewide. Lows this morning will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday morning bottoming out in the mid 40s with slightly cooler temperatures in higher elevations.

Latest 00z upper air map analysis shows troughing along the eastern seaboard with a cut off low with an associated upper trough over the Washington coast extending southward. An analysis of both deterministic and ensemble model data shows the cut off low and upper trough will continue to dig and deepen through the middle of the work week off the US west coast before coming ashore during the latter part of the week.

At the same time, high pressure will expand northward into the northern plains and into southern Canada as the upper trough just east of Manitoba into Ontario province of Canada by Tuesday. The ridge axis will remain in the central and southern PLains west of the state through the latter part of this week before moving over the state sometime Friday into the early part of the weekend. The aforementioned upper trough across the west coast will come ashore during the latter part of the week. The upper trough will move across the Great Basin region on Friday then lift northeastward around the periphery of the upper ridging over the central part of the country.This will keep the state rain free through the entire work week and possibly through next weekend.

High temperatures today will be in the 70s within the state with a place or two in southern Arkansas perhaps getting into the lower 80s. As we head into the rest of the work week into the upcoming weekend, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal for afternoon highs for the latter part of October.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Satellite this morning shows additional high level cloudiness over the southern Plains. The high level cloudiness will stream over the state during the day. Light south to southeast winds are expected and veering to the NE early Tuesday but remaining light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 75 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 80 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 75 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 80 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 78 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 77 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 79 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 74 46 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 77 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 77 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 77 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 79 46 81 49 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.