textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- High pressure will move into the region today bringing quiet weather conditions to Arkansas over the next week

- A very dry airmass will filter into the state this afternoon in the wake of a cold front elevating local wildfire danger

- Gradual warming trend anticipated through early week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Regional WSR-88D radars were quiet across AR early this Sunday morning. Skies were mostly clear except over portions of N-Cntrl and NE AR where a subtle cold front, currently located over Srn MO, was surrounded by low/mid level stratus. This boundary will drop Swrd through the state this morning bringing brief elevated winds, followed by very dry airmass, plus colder anticipated high temps this afternoon.

Today, dew point temps will drop by mid/late morning as drier air advects into the region from the N. Afternoon relative humidity values could dip into the upper 10% to middle 20% over the Ouachita and Ozarks Mtns, including portions of the AR River Valley into Cntrl AR. Wrly winds will switch to the N this morning at or around 5-10 kts gusting upwards of 15-20kts, then expecting wind gusts to relax a bit heading into the afternoon as the center of high pressure settles into the state. 10 hour dead fuels should remain above 10% averaging 10%-15%. Given this, there will be some component of slightly elevated fire danger today. High temps this afternoon should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s under mostly clear skies.

Upper level winds will transition to a NWrly component across the Cntrl CONUS today through pretty much the remainder of the period. A closed low should move into Wrn Mexico on Monday which should track Ewrd through TX on Tuesday. By Wednesday, an upper level lobe of energy will pinwheel around the periphery of the parent trough which should be located over the Great Lakes down to the Mid-MS Valley regions. The combination of this upper trough in conjunction with an upper closed low over TX should trigger convection just to the S and E of AR as a surface front sweeps across the area. Across AR, an increase in clouds are expected but at this time rainfall is not expected. Late in the period, an upper level impulse or compact upper trough may drop out of Canada which could bring precip chances back to AR around the Saturday time frame although uncertainty remains high at this time. Temps through the period will feature subtle warming through Tuesday followed by cooling through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period at all locations. SKC conds are expected on Sunday with Nrly winds around 10-20kts subsiding to less than 10kts during the afternoon as high pressure settles into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 47 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 51 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 44 29 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 50 28 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 48 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 51 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 51 28 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 45 26 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 46 28 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 48 29 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 50 28 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 48 26 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 47 29 52 35 / 0 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.