textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered PM showers/storms possible over Cntrl/S/SE Arkansas today

- Heat Advisories in effect for much of Arkansas Monday & Tuesday

- Expansive upper ridge to build back over Arkansas through Saturday

- Anomalously hot and dry conditions anticipated through Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today, few to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly Cntrl/S/SE AR associated with abundant low- level moisture coupled with peak diurnal heating. The main thunderstorm hazard with any of the stronger convection would be damaging straight-line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be expected across the state. Highs today and Tuesday should range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in place and heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 are expected each afternoon across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat Advisory is in effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through at least Tuesday evening.

Heading through middle-to-late part of this week, a stout upper ridge will become re-established across the Srn CONUS. During this time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each day. Rain chances will remain minimal, or spotty at best, with heat index values topping out between 95 and 110.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and decreasing amount of daylight with each passing day. To oppose these natural cooling expectations one would expect, a strengthening and amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will remain in place across the region. For those curious about climatological average temps for this time of year, Little Rock - Average Low 64, Average High 86; Pine Bluff - Average Low 64, Average High 87; Harrison - Average Low 59, Average High 82. In summary, average highs and lows are expected to range from 10-15 degrees above climatological average through Saturday.

While Sunday is pretty far out in the long term, there are some indications that the ridge could shift Ewrd as an upper trough moves into the nations mid-section. If this happens, rain chances could increase locally while simultaneously lowering temps to end the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid/high clouds are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon. Mentioned PROB30 over KLLQ for PM SHRA. PoPs should diminish near/just after sunset. Winds will be S/SErly at around 10 kts or less today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 98 74 101 74 / 10 10 10 0 Camden AR 100 72 98 73 / 20 10 10 0 Harrison AR 94 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 98 74 98 74 / 20 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 99 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 0 Monticello AR 98 75 98 75 / 30 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 99 72 98 72 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 94 72 98 73 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 97 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 98 73 97 74 / 20 10 10 0 Russellville AR 99 74 100 74 / 20 0 10 0 Searcy AR 99 73 100 73 / 20 20 10 0 Stuttgart AR 100 76 100 76 / 20 20 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.