textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of W, SW, S, SE AR today

- Scattered showers/storms are possible over SW AR this afternoon

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices today and Tuesday

- Upper level pattern shift by late week may introduce rain chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Abnormally hot and dry conditions will continue across much of AR beneath an expansive upper ridge. This ridge is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Srn Plains through middle part of this week. Resultant large scale forcing for subsidence should inhibit widespread organized convection through at least Wednesday.

Currently, a weak backdoor cold front was moving across the state from NE to SW. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of SW/W/S AR later this afternoon along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it becomes nearly stationary over the ArkLaTex's region. Brief gusty winds would be the main thunderstorm hazard with any strong storm. Temps over SW/W/S AR will be hot thanks to compressional warming ahead of shower and thunderstorm development. Across this portion of the state, highs may range from 100 to 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is also in effect across the aforementioned locations through this evening for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

Elsewhere, winds will be E/NErly behind the front with highs topping out in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values peaking below 105 degrees as slightly drier air advects into the state from the NE. Drier air will stick around into Tuesday for a large part of the state before winds switch to the S/SW on Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Long range ensemble guidance is depicting weakening/retrograding of the ridge in the Thursday through Saturday time frame with broad NW flow becoming established. Unsettled weather might make a return on Thursday through Saturday while also introducing slightly cooler temps to the state. Highest PoP chances will be over the Nrn half of AR each of these days. Unfortunately Srn half of AR may not see much appreciable rainfall during these three days. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to slowly build back into the region with rain chances dwindling.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA and TSRA over parts of western, southwestern, and northwest Arkansas is expected to dissipated within an hour or so of sunset this evening. Light and variable winds will persist through early Tuesday morning, then become E/NE but remain light through the end of the forecast period. Some afternoon diurnal CU and isolated SHRA and TSRA again possible Tuesday afternoon, but likely closer to frontal boundary across far southern Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 66 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 71 100 73 98 / 0 10 0 20 Harrison AR 67 97 72 98 / 10 0 0 20 Hot Springs AR 71 101 74 100 / 20 0 10 10 Little Rock AR 72 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 73 99 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Mount Ida AR 69 100 71 99 / 20 10 0 10 Mountain Home AR 66 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 68 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 70 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 70 99 73 101 / 20 0 0 10 Searcy AR 68 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 71 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ031-032-039- 042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ042-052>055- 062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.