textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

-Dangerous temperatures and heat index values will be present across most of the state through Wednesday. Heat safety practices will be a must over this period

-A cold front (rather cool front) will push southward across the state during the early morning hours on Wednesday providing a couple days of relief from oppressive conditions

-The upper level ridge pattern begins to re-amplify over the state into the weekend which will result in a return towards oppressive heat

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

SUNDAY (TODAY) through TUESDAY:

The combination of maximum mid-lvl subsidence coupled with high surface dewpoints will create oppressive conditions across Arkansas. Diurnal heating will easily push temperatures into the mid to upper 90s, with triple-digit heat entering the forecast on Monday and becoming widespread over a large portion of the state on Tuesday where latest guidance is positioning deterministic values of high temperatures between 100 and 103+ degrees across most of the state. Probabilistic values or chances of triple digit or greater high temperatures have also been present statewide for Monday and especially on Tuesday. Only the higher terrain of the Ouachita, Boston, and Ozark Mountain ranges will be spared from widespread oppressive heat, but high temperatures will remain dangerous, reaching well into the 90s despite the higher elevation. Heat products are likely to be in effect across most of the state over this period, especially on Tuesday where locations of the state will likely reach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. The placement of Arkansas on the eastern periphery underneath the expansive upper-lvl ridge will keep lower end POP chances in the forecast; however, any shower or thunderstorm development will be isolated and only a brief reprieve from the dangerous heat.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY:

A cold front is progged to move from north to south through the state of Arkansas during the early morning hours on Wednesday. Models have struggled with whether or not this mesoscale feature will present a chance of increased POPs, but overall chances look low, and the greatest chance for any elevated POPs will be across northeastern and east-central Arkansas. Temperatures will begin to be noted of returning to values that will still be considered hot, but not near the oppressive heat expected between today and Tuesday. Wednesday high temperatures are expected to be dangerously hot from along the I-40 corridor and locations south with values topping out in the upper 90s to triple-digits in a few instances, especially into southern Arkansas. On Thursday, relief in the form of cooler temperatures which will be near normal for late July, dewpoints that will be in the mid 60s, and northeasterly winds at the surface will be noted.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY:

Surface high pressure moving into the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS by the end of the workweek into the beginning of the weekend will be noted. A shortwave will be present through the overall H500 flow pattern in close proximity over Arkansas bringing a low chance of POPs across northern Arkansas on Friday morning. Confidence remains low at this point for POPs, but a signal does exist. The upper lvl ridge begins to re-amplify over the region and in response temperature will begin to increase once again across the state. A return to heat product issuance for the weekend will be likely as high temperatures reach back into the mid to upper 90s for most of the state and dewpoint temperatures begin to rebound back into the low 70s which will equate to elevated heat index values and oppressive conditions overall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Mostly calm and partly cloudy skies are expected through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. Very low chances for showers and storms affecting the northern terminals this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 97 77 97 77 / 20 20 30 0 Camden AR 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 93 75 95 76 / 20 10 20 0 Hot Springs AR 97 77 98 78 / 0 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 98 78 98 80 / 0 10 10 0 Monticello AR 99 77 98 78 / 10 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 10 0 Newport AR 97 77 98 78 / 20 20 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 97 76 97 76 / 0 10 10 0 Russellville AR 97 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 0 Searcy AR 97 76 98 77 / 10 10 20 0 Stuttgart AR 97 77 97 78 / 0 10 10 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-065-121>123- 130-138-230-238.