textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Showers will be possible mainly this morning over the south, close to a stalled out front over northern Louisiana.

- Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected for the majority of the state Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A cold front will move through the state on Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal chance of severe weather, mainly for gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Not many value added changes will be forthcoming this morning as guidance really has not deviated that much from previous thinking. Skies remain partly cloudy across the majority of the state this morning with more cloud cover south, which is closer to a stalled out frontal boundary over northern Louisiana and Mississippi. Temperatures range from the mid 60s to lower 70s at this time.

With the front in the vicinity of southern AR, a stray shower or two still can be ruled out, especially this morning as a weak impulse of energy continues to traverse the boundary. Amplified upper pattern remains in place with broad troughing still sitting over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS.

Very deep moisture continues to pool just south of the aforementioned front with very high PWAT values but guidance continues to keep this plume of tropical moisture south of the FA. Interestingly, a large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms continues along the TX/LA gulf coasts which now has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical system. Latest thinking is the aforementioned trough currently will move east and pick this system up and carry whatever becomes of it to the SE of the state.

As such, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be mainly dry but attention will then turn to the next cold front that is expected to be over southern Missouri early Thursday. The front will drop across the FA Thursday afternoon and into a moist and unstable airmass. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with a marginal threat of severe weather, mainly for gusty winds, in any stronger storms.

Overall pattern does look to remain unsettled through the remainder of the period with at least a chance of precipitation with several more pieces of upper energy moving through.

Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages for the next few days before cooling off slightly on Thursday as the front moves through. Mid level ridging tries to build over the area over the weekend with temperatures creeping up again, in spite of on going rain chances

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the rest of the day and into the evening hours across all terminals. Some spotty showers are possible that could near the northern terminals this afternoon, but probabilities remain low for any impacts at those terminals. Some SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings may impact the central to southern terminals during the overnight hours, with highest probabilities for the southeastern terminals. Some gusty southerly flow 20 to 25 kts expected to develop across the region by tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 69 92 77 90 / 0 0 10 60 Camden AR 70 91 75 92 / 0 0 10 20 Harrison AR 68 88 72 83 / 0 0 30 70 Hot Springs AR 70 91 76 92 / 0 0 10 20 Little Rock AR 71 92 76 92 / 0 0 10 30 Monticello AR 70 90 75 90 / 0 0 20 40 Mount Ida AR 70 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 67 89 73 84 / 10 0 30 60 Newport AR 69 93 77 91 / 0 0 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 70 91 75 91 / 0 0 20 30 Russellville AR 71 92 77 91 / 0 0 0 30 Searcy AR 69 93 76 92 / 0 0 10 50 Stuttgart AR 71 92 77 91 / 0 0 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.