textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

-Normal to above normal temperatures throughout the next seven days

-Isolated to scattered showers mainly Wednesday, ahead of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mostly clear skies early this morning will give way to cloudy skies later today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough across the Great Plains. This trough will keep general southerly flow across the region over the next several days as surface high pressure centers east of the state.

Weak moisture advection is likely to still spark a few showers across what looks like southern Arkansas tonight into Wednesday, although chances for any one location to see these showers remains somewhat low (10-30%). As the weak shortwave ejects eastward going into Thursday, a more energetic shortwave amplifying from the stronger polar jet centered across the US/Canada border will bring better moisture return ahead of a cold front spreading across the Plains into the Natural State late Wednesday and into Thursday. Most of the state should see measurable precipitation, although deep moisture remains limited (i.e. PWAT's around 1 inch), thus probabilities of 0.50" (1.00") for this mid to late week event is generally 30-50% (10-20%), with the best chances for higher amounts favoring eastern Arkansas.

Dry conditions will commence once again late in the week and persist into this weekend as surface high pressure builds across the southeast. Temperatures will be coldest on Friday post-cold front, as highs hover around normal levels (mid-40 to low 50s). Temperatures will then warm quickly with highs in the 60s on Saturday and persisting into early next week. There are even low to moderate chances (30-50%) for highs even reaching the 70s, favoring central to southern Arkansas Sunday through early next week.

Guidance has quite a bit of spread in regards to another wave late into the weekend and into early next week that could bring some increasing precipitation chances, but even if that comes to fruition, chances will still remain low (generally 10-30%) due to continued lack of deep moisture with any frontal band that would move across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Expect VFR conditions to continue through most of the period, with southerly to southwesterly winds 8-12 kts, lighter and variable winds settling in this evening. SKC-FEW will become BKN-OVC high clouds to start, with lowering ceilings this evening and into the overnight period, with increasing potential of MVFR ceilings by the end of the period, favoring KHOT and KADF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 51 37 57 48 / 0 10 0 50 Camden AR 52 39 56 51 / 0 30 30 50 Harrison AR 57 37 61 49 / 0 0 0 40 Hot Springs AR 51 39 56 50 / 0 20 10 60 Little Rock AR 52 40 56 50 / 0 20 10 50 Monticello AR 53 42 57 52 / 0 30 30 30 Mount Ida AR 53 40 58 50 / 0 10 10 60 Mountain Home AR 57 36 59 49 / 0 0 0 40 Newport AR 49 37 56 49 / 0 10 10 40 Pine Bluff AR 52 40 55 50 / 0 20 30 40 Russellville AR 55 39 60 51 / 0 10 0 50 Searcy AR 51 36 56 47 / 0 10 10 50 Stuttgart AR 51 40 54 50 / 0 20 20 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.