textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

-Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon favoring southern Arkansas

-Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday, as heat index values reach the 105-110 degree range during the afternoon hours

-Slight Risk for severe weather across northeastern Arkansas Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves into the state, with rain chances extending southward through Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Mostly quiet conditions are ongoing early this Tue morning after the weak front dropped south into the state on Mon. A SVR storm produced widespread wind damage along and north of the I-40 corridor Mon afternoon...with numerous reports of damage. New convection is now developing just west of the CWA near FSM...activity likely forming just ahead of a weak upper wave dropping ESE into the state. Near- term hi-res guidance suggests this activity continuing off and on overnight into sunrise Tue...potentially moving east in the same general path as Mon afternoon storm...along the I-40/AR River Valley corridor. The threat for SVR Wx with this activity should be lower than seen on Mon...but still wouldn't rule out an isolated strong/SVR storm.

There may be a break after sunrise into the early afternoon hrs in the convective potential...but the front that moved south into the state on Mon...will lift back north Tue afternoon. Areas SW of this front will likely see temps back in the upper 90s to around 100...with heat index values near or over 105...potentially over 110 in some areas. Heat headlines will continue for all but the NERN counties where relatively cooler air will remain. Some additional afternoon convection may also develop along/SW of the front over the SWRN half of the CWA.

By Wed...SW SFC flow will intensify...and afternoon mixing will allow for lower dewpts in the afternoon hrs...but also result in hotter temps. In fact...this may result in nearly the hottest conditions of the year so far...with highs for most areas likely at or over 100. Even with the drier afternoon air...some additional afternoon isolated convection may again be possible as a new front drops south towards the state. This front will continue dropping south into the state on Thu as an upper shortwave drops SE through the region. This will bring better chances for rainfall...and cooler conditions for later this week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Expect mostly VFR flight category over the forecast period from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. The beginning of the forecast period will contain possible isolated storms which may impact the sites of KHOT, KADF, and KLIT and degrade VSBY to MVFR which has been captured by TEMPO groups. Low level wind shear will be present across the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK early Wednesday morning prior to sunset. Later into the day on Wednesday, VCTS will be present during the afternoon hours across the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 75 104 75 95 / 0 10 40 50 Camden AR 77 102 78 100 / 20 0 0 10 Harrison AR 75 99 72 92 / 0 10 50 30 Hot Springs AR 77 104 78 100 / 10 0 10 20 Little Rock AR 78 106 80 100 / 10 0 10 20 Monticello AR 79 103 80 100 / 20 10 0 20 Mount Ida AR 76 103 77 100 / 10 0 0 30 Mountain Home AR 74 99 71 91 / 0 20 50 40 Newport AR 74 102 75 94 / 0 10 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 76 102 78 98 / 20 0 0 20 Russellville AR 75 105 76 99 / 0 10 10 20 Searcy AR 74 105 75 97 / 0 10 20 40 Stuttgart AR 77 104 79 99 / 10 0 10 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-005-014-024- 033-042-045>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203- 212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ004-005- 014>016-024-025-033-034-042-052>056-062>069-103-112-113-123-137- 140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032- 039-043-044-121-122-130-138-230-238.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ031- 032-039-043>047-057-121-122-130-138-230-238.