textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

-Active pattern expected across the region...but only limited potential for thunderstorms/rainfall in Arkansas

-First decent thunderstorm/rainfall potential for Arkansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning

-Next wave of thunderstorm/rainfall potential late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region

-Cooler/drier weather expected late this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An active weather pattern remains the main story through the next several days across the region...but much of AR remains on the ERN/SERN extent of most activity. Initially...only some small chances for isolated/widely scattered convection are forecast today/tonight...mainly for WRN/NWRN sections...with much better chances for more organized activity remaining west. Most areas of the LZK CWA should remain dry into Wed...with highs in the 70s and 80s.

By late Wed into early Thu...upper level energy in the SW flow aloft will shift east slightly by Thu morning...with the potential for a bit more organized convection increasing further E/SE. Have increasing POPs for this as a result...with best POPs late Wed night into early Thu afternoon. Given the timing of this activity...the threat for strong/SVR convection looks relatively limited this time.

Potential for precip decreases again for most locations late Thu into much of Fri as upper ridging moves over AR. By Sat/Sat night...an upper shortwave will drop SE across the Plains into the Great Lakes region...with a SFC cold front dropping SE across the Plains through AR. Expect increasing potential for convection with this SFC front as it passes SE through AR Sat. The potential for seeing any organized SVR Wx with this front looks fairly uncertain at this time. This will be due to either timing of the FROPA...and/or uncertainty in this timing and upper level features/SFC details.

Cooler and more stable air will then settle across the region by late in the weekend into early next week behind this cold front. Temps will drop from the 70s and 80s...potentially some low 90s on Fri for highs...to the 60s and 70s behind the front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR CIGs should become MVFR CIGs near 12z due to moisture advection/formation of stratus deck from the W and SW. CIGs should improve mid-day into the early afternoon on Tues. Winds will be Srly around 10-15 kts overnight, increasing to 20-25 kts in the afternoon out of the S/SW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 85 68 83 66 / 10 10 20 80 Camden AR 86 62 84 64 / 10 0 0 50 Harrison AR 83 67 76 62 / 20 40 60 90 Hot Springs AR 83 64 81 63 / 10 10 20 80 Little Rock AR 85 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 70 Monticello AR 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 82 64 79 63 / 10 20 30 90 Mountain Home AR 85 67 79 63 / 20 30 50 90 Newport AR 86 68 85 66 / 10 10 10 70 Pine Bluff AR 86 64 84 66 / 10 0 0 50 Russellville AR 84 66 80 64 / 20 20 40 90 Searcy AR 85 65 84 64 / 10 10 10 70 Stuttgart AR 86 67 84 67 / 10 0 0 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.