textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

-A Heat Advisory continues through Saturday evening across eastern Arkansas, a large part of central Arkansas, the Arkansas River Valley, and most of west-central Arkansas.

-A few very isolated rain/storm chances will exist as a series of weak boundaries approach the state over the weekend, but the upper level ridge and subsidence will keep POP chances very low

-Hot and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the forecast period across the CWA and state of Arkansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The forecast is beginning to sound similar to a skipping song on a CD (repeating from the previous forecast). Hot and dry conditions will persist across Arkansas overall. A very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm will exist across southern Arkansas each afternoon through the weekend, but PoPs will be low and rainfall totals will likely not equate to enough to settle the dust.

The trend of high temperatures across Arkansas ranging from the mid 90s into values around and exceeding 100 degrees will continue through the forecast period or through the middle of next week. Heat Advisory issuance will likely be extended into the latter part of the Labor Day Weekend and into the upcoming weekend as portions of the state continue to experience heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees. Into the holiday weekend, an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed across portions of eastern and central Arkansas as latest guidance does indicate heat index values exceeding 110 degrees.

The upper lvl ridge is progged to broaden over the weekend over the region, but by the beginning of the upcoming workweek, the center of the upper lvl ridge fixates directly over Arkansas. A series of weak frontal boundaries will attempt to move into the state, but given the strength of the upper lvl ridge and associated subsidence, appreciable rainfall is not expected.

In analysis of the latest 00Z suite of model ensembles, unfortunately it appears a good bet that the upper lvl ridge remains positioned over Arkansas for the next roughly ten days (possibly longer). As expected, over this ten day stretch, hot and dry conditions will persist overall with limited to no chances for rainfall. Wildfire danger will continue to increase as drought conditions worsen along with soils and vegetation that continues to dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Expect VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast period from Thursday morning through Friday morning across all TAF sites. Hot and dry conditions will continue across Arkansas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 77 101 77 103 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 73 97 73 97 / 0 10 10 20 Harrison AR 73 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 77 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 75 96 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 71 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 74 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 74 97 74 98 / 0 10 0 10 Russellville AR 75 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 75 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 76 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025- 031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230- 237-238.