textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible into this afternoon

-Drier conditions this evening into Saturday morning

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast off an on through much of next week

-Threat for severe weather to remain low...and locally heavy rainfall possible during the period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Mainly dry conditions are ongoing for the NRN half of the state early this Fri morning...with some areas of SHRA noted over SRN sections. A weak upper shortwave over NERN TX will lift NE over the state through this Fri morning...resulting in the ongoing SHRA over SRN AR downstream of this upper shortwave. Latest regional radar imagery shows signs of a weak meso-low over SRN AR...with recent hi- res guidance showing this feature lifting NE over SERN into ERN AR through just after sunrise. At this same time...a warm front will also lift north.

Best POPs through this Fri morning will be over the SRN half of the state...especially over SERN/ERN sections in vicinity of the aforementioned meso-low. Eventually...POPs will increase further north by late morning into the afternoon hrs...but coverage of convection will be mainly isolated to widely scattered in nature over NRN AR. The threat for seeing SVR convection remains low given lack of instability...with only isolated TSRA forecast. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible...but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time.

The upper shortwave will lift NE of the state by this Fri afternoon...with coverage of convection decreasing tonight into Sat morning. POPs do increase again for Sat afternoon as a new upper wave approaches from the SW in SW flow aloft. An unsettled pattern will persist for the next several days...with off and on convection forecast through much of the upcoming week. This is result of SW flow aloft persisting...with upper disturbances passing over the region. Locally heavy rainfall may be seen...but details regarding any widespread heavy rainfall remain uncertain at this time. Even so...some areas may see 2 to more than 3 inches of rain by late next week...but this should be spread out over 5 to 7 days. This will keep the flash flood threat limited...especially with the ongoing drought for most areas of AR.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

There will multiple impacts for aviation in Arkansas today as a stalled boundary is stalled over central Arkansas. The main impacts early on will be periods of showers and lower visibility, which will also lower to MVFR ceilings. These showers could have lightning with the best chance at KHOT/KADF/KLIT in the next 6 hours. As the storms push east, skies will clear our overnight, creating a fog threat. The wet ground and cooling will quickly form a shallow fog bank with possible IFR to LIFR ceilings around sunrise. The visibility and ceilings will rise a few hours after sunrise tomorrow as heating occurs. The highest risk for fog will be areas that got the most rain in the last 24 hours over central and eastern Arkansas near I40 down along I30.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 61 81 64 81 / 20 10 40 50 Camden AR 62 84 64 80 / 20 60 60 60 Harrison AR 59 79 61 80 / 10 70 50 20 Hot Springs AR 62 82 64 81 / 10 60 30 50 Little Rock AR 62 82 64 80 / 20 40 40 40 Monticello AR 64 84 66 80 / 30 60 60 70 Mount Ida AR 62 81 64 81 / 10 70 30 50 Mountain Home AR 59 80 61 80 / 10 30 50 30 Newport AR 61 83 64 82 / 20 10 30 40 Pine Bluff AR 63 83 65 80 / 20 50 50 60 Russellville AR 61 82 64 82 / 10 40 40 40 Searcy AR 59 82 62 81 / 20 10 40 40 Stuttgart AR 64 83 66 80 / 10 30 50 50

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.