textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

-Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected again for this Friday afternoon/evening

-Threat for severe weather looks low...but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could be seen...with damaging winds...large hail...and locally heavy rainfall possible with strongest activity

-Heat index values look to exceed 105 again this afternoon for many areas along the Arkansas River Valley. These hot conditions may continue into at least the middle of next week...with Heat Advisories expected for at least some portion of the area

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR FRIDAY EVENING

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Recent vissat imgry depicted an MCV signature located over Cntrl AR, lkly remnants fm overnight convective activity. Additionally, sfc obs and radar indicated a transient outflow bndry fm SE KS/SW MO overnight convection was moving SEwrd invof this MCV. The last few synoptic suites of CAM guidance have been indicative of new afternoon to evening development driven by lingering mesoscale features. Modest destabilization is expected over Cntrl to Srn AR, w/ recent sat imgry depicting developing Cu, and mesoanalysis fields suggesting 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. 17Z LZK RAOB data indicated a weak capping inversion was still in place, but expect remaining inhibition to continue to erode thru the aftn.

Given the distinct lack of deep layer shear, expect convection this aftn to evng to be mainly cold pool driven, posing isolated threats for strong winds and some hail. Some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding issues wl also be possible where and if storms train.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Some scattered SHRA/TSRA continues early this Fri morning over central sections as weak upper energy and SEWD progressing outflow continues to trigger some new convection. Have increased POPs into the next few hrs this morning...but will have to see if this activity continues further and adjust POPs accordingly this morning.

There should be a lull in convective activity later this morning. However...a new upper wave will drop SE into the state by later this afternoon and this evening. This will allow for additional convection to fire during the heating of the day this afternoon/evening. While the overall threat for seeing SVR WX remain low...an isolated strong to SVR TSRA may be seen. The primary hazard with the strongest activity will be gusty/damaging winds and maybe some isolated large hail. Should also see some locally heavy rainfall.

With weak NW aloft persisting into the weekend...there should be continued chances for afternoon convection into at least Sat...maybe even Sun afternoon as weak upper energy moves overhead. The potential for afternoon convection looks to decrease by early next week as upper ridging intensifies some over the state. The center of this upper ridge should remain west of AR...keeping the worst of the heat west of the state. However...the threat for oppressive heat each day should continue from this afternoon and into next week. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to around 100 each day. Depending on where rainfall occurs...dewpts should stay high enough for some locations to see heat index values at or above 105. Some areas will continue to see Heat Adv posted as a result.

There may be another brief break by late in the forecast as flow aloft becomes more NW over the region as the upper ridge shifts back west some late next week. Chances for rainfall look to increase...and temps will drop some later next week as a result.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR condns were noted at area terminals Fri aftn, w/ sctd Cu developing acrs Srn AR, and some lingering stratus acrs Cntrl to NErn AR. A sfc frnt was located acrs the NWrn half of the FA, draped fm SW to NE, w/ variable NWrly winds at Nrn terminals, and mainly Srly winds over Cntrl to Srn AR. Expect covg of storms to incrs into Fri evng along this frnt, and move Swrd fm NWrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR thru 06Z Fri night. Intermittent lower CIGs may accompany precip, but there is lower confidence on precip timing at the moment. Precip covg is expected to taper off beyond 06Z, w/ mid-level clouds and VFR condns prevailing into Sat mrng.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 73 94 73 96 / 50 20 0 0 Camden AR 73 93 72 93 / 30 30 10 10 Harrison AR 71 92 72 94 / 60 20 0 0 Hot Springs AR 74 95 73 95 / 50 30 10 0 Little Rock AR 76 95 75 96 / 50 30 10 0 Monticello AR 74 93 73 94 / 20 40 10 10 Mount Ida AR 72 93 71 93 / 50 30 10 0 Mountain Home AR 71 93 71 93 / 60 20 0 0 Newport AR 74 94 74 95 / 30 20 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 74 92 73 93 / 30 30 10 10 Russellville AR 74 96 74 97 / 60 30 0 0 Searcy AR 73 94 73 95 / 30 30 10 0 Stuttgart AR 75 94 75 94 / 30 30 10 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039- 042>047-054>057-121-122-130-138-230-238.