textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

-Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon/evening...with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible

-Windy conditions Sunday into Monday

-Very cold wind chills Sunday night into Monday...along with well below freezing conditions Monday and Tuesday mornings

-Temperatures rebound by the middle of next week...with well above normal conditions by late next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fairly quiet conditions ongoing early this Sat morning...but this will change as we progress into Sun and Mon. Nearly zonal/NW flow aloft this morning will transition to a weak SWRLY flow...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. This will allow for increasing moisture levels across the region...along with well above normal temps. Precip chances look to remain low through tonight.

On Sun...a shortwave will exit the Rockies...deepening as it moves east into the Plains. SFC low pressure will develop ahead of this upper shortwave over the central Plains...and move ENE towards the Great Lakes region Sun night. A trailing cold front will then move rapidly SE through the state Sun afternoon...moving east of the state Sun night. Much colder air will then surge south into the state Sun night through Mon night. Many hazards will be expected with this system as it moves over the region.

The first hazard to discuss will be the threat for SVR convection. Forecast soundings suggest a persistent capping inversion ahead of the surging cold front...which should limit convection ahead of the front. However...given the rapid SE movement of the cold front...expect the capping inversion to be easily overcome with the SFC frontal forcing. Very impressive dynamics are expected with the shortwave as it drops SE into the state...with plenty of wind energy expected to translate downward towards the SFC. As a result...damaging winds will be the primary threat expected...with winds of 60 to 70 mph possible with the strongest convection along the front. There may also be a threat for a few QLCS brief tornadoes along the leading edge of the convection. Expect the SVR threat to rapidly end from NW to SE Sun evening as the front moves east of AR.

The next hazard to discuss will be very strong non-thunderstorm winds. Given the aforementioned impressive dynamics with the upper shortwave...and tightening SFC pressure gradient... there looks to be at least Wind Adv level winds possible. Initially...SRLY winds look to be in the 15 to 30 mph range sustained ahead of the front...with gusts over 40 mph at times. However...once the front passes...and the upper wave moves into the state...expect the NWRLY winds to increase further across the state late Sun afternoon into Sun night. These winds look to be in the 20 to 40 mph range sustained...and gusts of 45 to maybe over 50 mph at times. In fact...some higher terrain areas may see wind gusts well over 50 mph. Have initially used a 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM90 for wind/gust grids...but could see some potential these could still be a tad low. If winds are closer to the NBM 90 levels...there may need to be some consideration of stronger wording regarding wind hazards Sun night.

Winter-like conditions will make a impressive return Sun night into Mon as much colder air will arrive behind the front. Initially...there could be a window Sun evening/night where any remaining moisture could generate snow as the cold air arrives. Some light snow accumulations may even be seen...mainly in the higher terrain of the Ozarks across NWRN sections. Even so...given the very warm conditions as of late...and only light accumulations of less than a half inch expected...impacts should be very limited if any.

Beyond the light snow...windy conditions combined with temps dropping into the teens and 20s by around sunrise Mon morning...wind chill values will drop into the single digits and teens across central to NWRN sections. The higher terrain areas of the Ozarks may see wind chill values get near zero at times. Some low to mid 20s wind chills will even be possible into SERN AR.

While wind chill values are impressively cold for this time of year...actual temperatures will also create some hazards as temps will drop well below freezing. This will result in a widespread freeze for all of the state by Tue morning. Initially...a large portion of the state will see temps below freezing by sunrise Mon...with basically all of AR below freezing Tue morning. Temps will range from the upper teens to upper 20s for all but the SERN sections Mon morning....and mid teens to mid 20s for basically all of AR Tue morning. Given how warm conditions have been the last few weeks...and how responsive plant life has been to the warmer conditions...this cold may cause significant damage as a result.

Another hazard to discuss will be the increased fire weather threat on Mon. Depending on how wet fuels become with the frontal convection...winds will remain elevated on Mon afternoon. While temps will be below normal for highs Mon...very dry air will have filtered into the state as well. This will result in min RH values dipping to near critical levels...with some potential for seeing near Red Flag Conditions Mon afternoon. Will have to see how long the breezy winds persist to see how likely this scenario may be.

The cold snap will be short-lived as SRLY flow will return by late Tue and especially by mid-week. Upper level ridging will also be seen as the ridge to the SW expands towards AR. Temps by late in the forecast will be back into the 70s for most areas...and even some 80s by late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Srly winds will increase before 18z, sustained winds of 10-15 kts expected along with occasional gusts above 20 kts. Winds will lessen somewhat after 15/00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 76 56 69 26 / 0 0 90 50 Camden AR 77 56 79 28 / 0 0 70 40 Harrison AR 76 56 66 19 / 0 0 90 30 Hot Springs AR 76 56 74 26 / 0 0 80 30 Little Rock AR 77 56 76 28 / 0 0 80 40 Monticello AR 77 57 81 32 / 0 0 60 70 Mount Ida AR 76 56 71 24 / 0 0 80 20 Mountain Home AR 75 56 67 20 / 0 0 90 30 Newport AR 75 56 71 27 / 0 0 80 60 Pine Bluff AR 76 56 78 29 / 0 0 70 60 Russellville AR 78 56 70 25 / 0 0 90 30 Searcy AR 76 54 75 26 / 0 0 80 50 Stuttgart AR 75 56 76 29 / 0 0 70 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.