textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

-Windy and dry conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

-Well above normal temperatures likely again today before a cold front moves through.

-Cooler air from Friday through early next week.

-Low rain chances Fri-Sat, with little QPF expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Main focus across the state today will be increasing wildfire danger, especially across the western half of the state. A strong sfc low will move from Kansas toward the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front. As the pressure gradient is enhanced by the sfc cyclone moving through the region, S/SW winds will really pick up throughout the day. Very dry air will be seen across the western half of the state and as RH values plummet below 25 percent this afternoon, the wildfire threat will really climb. In areas where RH values won't be critically low, strong winds will still be seen and winds could gust above 30 mph while the sfc low remains in the vicinity of the state.

The sfc low will continue its way toward the Great Lakes tonight with the trailing cold front making its way across the state. This will mark the end of the this period of well above normal temperatures. Cooler temperatures will be seen on Friday with the airmass remaining dry across the area. Sfc winds will be lighter, limiting any widespread fire weather concerns.

Going into the weekend, a mid-level shortwave trough will move across the middle of the country. At the sfc, a developing sfc low will develop and move east along the Gulf Coast. This will help provide some rain chances to mainly S/SE Arkansas on Saturday. From Saturday to Sunday, the mid-level flow will turn out of the N-NW over the state as deep troughing is expected across the eastern US. Sfc ridging will spill south across the central/eastern US and much colder air will filter in. A few nights of below freezing temperatures will be seen before H500 ridging moves in from the west and temperatures begin to moderate by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Increased S-SW winds will persist through much of the period before turning out of the W-NW as a cold front moves across the state. Sustained winds of 10-20 kts will be common with gusts frequently above 20-25 kts. Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs in place across AR will persist through the morning hours before dissipating, giving way to areawide VFR conditions by 18z. Winds will slowly dissipate by 20/06z to 20/12z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 78 40 61 39 / 20 0 0 20 Camden AR 80 45 68 47 / 10 0 20 30 Harrison AR 75 34 57 37 / 10 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 78 43 65 44 / 10 0 10 30 Little Rock AR 79 45 63 43 / 10 0 10 30 Monticello AR 79 50 68 49 / 10 0 20 40 Mount Ida AR 77 40 66 43 / 10 0 10 30 Mountain Home AR 77 35 57 36 / 10 0 0 10 Newport AR 74 42 60 43 / 20 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 78 46 65 46 / 10 0 10 40 Russellville AR 79 40 64 42 / 10 0 10 20 Searcy AR 79 40 62 40 / 20 0 10 30 Stuttgart AR 76 45 62 45 / 10 0 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ004-005-103-112-113-121-122-130-203-212-213-221-222-230- 313.