textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

-Dry and well above normal conditions today and Tuesday

-Chances for rainfall return to the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday

-Brief dry and cooler period late Wednesday into Thursday

-Warmer air returns with additional chances for showers and possible thunderstorms late this week and especially into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

SFC high pressure will move east of the state by this Mon afternoon...with SRLY flow increasing across the area. These SRLY winds along with the clearing sky will allow for well above normal conditions this Mon afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s for most areas...with some locations across the west/SW approaching 80....and areas across the NE remaining in the 60s for highs. Another warm day will be seen on Tue as the SRLY flow continues...but increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front will keep temps from warming too far. Even so...highs will be in the 70s for most areas.

The aforementioned front will drop south into the state Tue night into Wed morning...with an upper disturbance moving east in nearly zonal flow aloft. The main energy with this upper wave look to pass just south of AR...with mainly chances for SHRA expected as the cold front drops south of AR on Wed. However...there may be a few TSRA as well...mainly along/south of the SFC front across SRN sections.

There will be a break in the precip by late Wed into Thu as flow aloft becomes NWRLY over the region...and NERLY SFC flow brings in drier...cooler air. Chances for convection return to the forecast late Thu into Fri as the cold front lifts back north as a warm front. Warmer conditions will return with the return of SRLY flow and ridging aloft...but increased clouds and precip may keep the warming more limited.

By Sat...chances for more widespread convection look to increase as an upper shortwave moves into the region. There remains uncertainty regarding the path of the upper wave and the SFC features by next weekend...which will dictate exactly how widespread the precip will be...and any potential for any storng/SVR convection. Latest guidance is trending back north...which may bring the better chances for more organized convection. However...this has been a more recent shift in the latest guidance. Being several days out...will keep an eye on the evolution of the next weekend system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light this morning, becoming S/SE at less than 10 kts. High clouds are expected to increase Monday night but bring no operational impacts during the TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 53 74 45 / 0 0 10 60 Camden AR 79 57 75 54 / 0 0 0 40 Harrison AR 75 55 73 44 / 0 0 10 40 Hot Springs AR 77 55 74 53 / 0 0 10 60 Little Rock AR 74 55 75 50 / 0 0 10 60 Monticello AR 78 59 76 55 / 0 0 0 30 Mount Ida AR 79 56 75 53 / 0 0 20 60 Mountain Home AR 72 50 73 42 / 0 0 10 40 Newport AR 67 51 72 45 / 0 0 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 76 57 75 52 / 0 0 10 50 Russellville AR 76 53 76 52 / 0 0 10 60 Searcy AR 72 50 74 48 / 0 0 10 70 Stuttgart AR 73 57 73 51 / 0 0 10 60

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.