textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Scattered showers/storms possible over Nrn AR this afternoon

- Damaging winds would the main thunderstorm hazard today

- Dangerous heat/humidity returns this weekend into next week

- Heat headlines are possible by this weekend and will likely be needed by early to middle part of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered showers had come to an end early this morning across AR. Patchy to areas of fog had developed over portions of N-Cntrl AR (Nrn two rows of counties), however VIS'bys were bouncing a bit. If 1/4 mile VIS or less can be sustained for a period of time, a dense fog advisory may be needed towards sunrise. Even if fog does not become this persistent, hazard travel conditions will remain over this portion of AR until the fog lifts. Temps were currently in the lower to mid 70s and winds were nearly calm.

Today, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over mainly Nrn AR, elsewhere, drier conditions should prevail. Best chance PoPs will be during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Highs today will reflect less cloud cover and less precipitation with highs creeping back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Looking towards the weekend, an upper level closed low over Wrn TX will weaken and retrograde with an expansive and dominating ridge building into the Cntrl CONUS from the Nrn Plains. At the surface, high pressure should be situated S of the state, providing S and SWrly winds to the region through much of the forecast period. By early next week, the aforementioned ridge should build into the Srn CONUS in addition to encompassing the Cntrl CONUS. Temps and humidity will markedly increase in the absence of cloud cover and rainfall thanks to large scale forcing for subsidence. AR is anticipated to reside on the Ern fringes of the ridge by middle of next week which could bring low end rain chances to portions of NE AR, however probabilities of precip is very low at this time.

Temp wise, readings will climb back into the 90s, reaching the mid 90s over the weekend. By early to middle part of next week, highs may range from the mid and upper 90s to near 100 degrees. NBM probabilities of high temps reaching or exceeding the century mark resides between 30-60% on Monday and Tuesday, and some of Wednesday (over AR River Valley), spanning from the AR River Valley, into portions of Cntrl AR, into portions of E and NE AR. Excessive ground moisture from recent rainfall should hinder temps from actually reaching or exceeding 100 across Cntrl/Ern half of AR, nonetheless it will be hot and very humid during this period of time.

For apparent T's of 105 or greater (heat advisory territory), probabilities of exceedance stand at 30-60% roughly along and E of I30/I57 corridors for Monday, 30-80% of exceedance for all but the higher terrain of the Ozark and Ouachita Mtns on Tuesday, and for Wednesday, 30-60% of exceedance generally along and S of I40 corridor. Increasing thresholds of apparent T's to 110 or greater (extreme heat warning territory) and probabilities of exceedance decrease somewhat but stand at 10-20% roughly along and E of I30/I57 corridors for Monday, 20-40% of exceedance along and E of the I30/I57 corridors on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, 20-30% of exceedance roughly along and S of the I30 to I40 corridors. In summary, a combination of heat headlines will likely be needed by early to middle part of next week, and possibly as early as Saturday or Sunday depending on how fast the ridge builds into AR.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. With that said, SHRA are possible across northern terminals through the afternoon hours. This could bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions to KHRO/KBPK should SHRA track over the terminal. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies are expected with winds out of the N/NW going light and variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 72 92 74 94 / 10 10 0 10 Camden AR 71 93 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 70 88 73 90 / 10 20 0 10 Hot Springs AR 73 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 74 94 77 95 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 71 90 73 92 / 10 20 0 0 Mountain Home AR 71 89 72 90 / 10 20 0 10 Newport AR 73 93 75 95 / 10 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 72 93 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 73 93 75 95 / 10 20 0 10 Searcy AR 72 94 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 74 93 76 94 / 10 0 0 0

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.