textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

-Some strong/severe thunderstorms possible early this morning over northern/northeast sections...and again this afternoon/evening over central/southern sections. Damaging winds will remain primary threat...with locally heavy rainfall also possible

-Some relief from the very hot conditions expected today for portions of the state...but temperatures may still get near 100 over central to southern sections. Heat index values over 105 also expected this afternoon in this region...with a Heat Advisory in place as a result

-Overall pattern has the upper ridge shifting west...with Arkansas in a more persistent northwesterly upper flow. This will allow for less consistent oppressive heat and some slightly better chances for rainfall going into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A front is slowly dropping south into the state early this Thu morning...with some scattered convection noted along and behind this front over WRN sections and over NERN sections of the CWA. The convective activity over NERN sections is in closer proximity to better SHR and instability...which will result in a bit better potential for seeing some strong to SVR TSRA. Further SW...this activity has less SHR and instability to work with...but is where the boundary is moving south at a faster pace. As a result...the threat for SVR convection is lower...but not out of the SVR threat. Damaging winds remains the primary threat with the strongest activity...with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

The front will continue dropping south through the state through this Thu. Additional afternoon convection will be possible along/behind this front as it progresses slowly south...with best POPs along/south of I-40 this afternoon. An isolated strong to SVR TSRA could be seen with this activity...with damaging winds the primary threat.

Beyond the chances for SHRA/TSRA this Thu...while the front is bringing some relief from the very hot conditions...there will still be some areas that see temps at or just over 100 this afternoon. Heat index values will also warm over 105 in many places...mainly over the SRN half of the area. Continue with a Heat Adv as a result.

Beyond Thu...the upper ridge will continue sliding further west...with AR in a more persistent NRLY/NWRLY upper flow. This will make it easier for some SFC fronts to push through the region...and more opportunities for more consistent relief from the oppressive heat. This may also bring better chances for rainfall into next week...though widespread beneficial rainfall doesn't look promising at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A front will continue dropping south through the state through this afternoon/evening. Some very isolated/widely scattered SHRA may be seen this morning...but better chances for convection will come this afternoon across central/SRN sections. By later tonight into early Fri...chances for precip should decrease. Outside any of the convective activity...dominant VFR conditions should persist.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 96 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 102 74 100 73 / 20 20 10 20 Harrison AR 92 69 93 71 / 10 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 102 74 101 74 / 30 30 10 20 Little Rock AR 102 76 99 75 / 30 30 10 10 Monticello AR 103 76 101 74 / 20 30 0 10 Mount Ida AR 102 71 99 71 / 30 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 92 69 92 70 / 0 0 10 10 Newport AR 93 72 95 72 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 101 73 98 72 / 30 30 10 10 Russellville AR 101 73 99 73 / 20 10 10 10 Searcy AR 99 72 96 72 / 10 10 0 10 Stuttgart AR 101 75 99 73 / 30 30 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138- 140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.