textproduct: Little Rock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

-A Heat Advisory will continue across a decent portion of Arkansas during today, especially across most of central and southern Arkansas.

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather will be present on Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

-In the wake of a cold front, which is forecast to move across Arkansas on Friday into early Saturday, temperatures which will be overall a few degrees below normal will occupy the state from Saturday through Monday.

-Into the middle of the upcoming week, a strengthening upper level ridge over Arkansas will lead to an increase of temperatures and decrease of opportunities for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

THURSDAY (TODAY):

A stationary boundary will remain draped across the state of Arkansas throughout the day and make little progress tracking southwestward. POP chances will remain elevated across parts of the state during the afternoon hours. Coverage of rain and isolated thunderstorm activity is expected to be less overall than the scattered convection noted across much of the state yesterday.

A Heat Advisory will be in place across a large portion of Arkansas today, especially across the southwestern two-thirds of the state, including the Little Rock metro area. Air temperatures across the state are forecast to vary from the mid 80s to low 90s in northern Arkansas, low to mid 90s in central Arkansas, and low to mid 90s in southern Arkansas. Despite the overall relief from triple-digit air temperatures across the state, dewpoint temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s in locations along and ahead of the boundary which will equate to heat index values exceeding 105 degrees within the advisory area. It is worth to note that progression of the frontal boundary southwestward farther than expected and/or coverage of widespread rain and storm activity may warrant the early cancellation of the Heat Advisory, but the practice of heat safety will still be needed within the advisory area.

FRIDAY:

The stationary boundary draped across Arkansas is progged to track back northeastward across Arkansas as a warm front. Additionally, a surface low pressure center will be tracking across central Missouri throughout the day on Friday with an attendant trailing cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma. A modest warm sector will open up across the state of Arkansas as the combination of the departing warm front and approaching cold front will create a parameter space via advecting southwesterly winds at the surface which will promote an influx of moisture and warming temperatures across the state during the day. The atmosphere will become conditionally unstable on Friday afternoon into Friday evening and latest model guidance signifies a corridor of potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the advancing cold front as it swings across the northern half of Arkansas, specifically north-central and northeastern parts of the state. CAMS models within this timescale indicate an atmosphere conducive for possible damaging wind gusts via DCAPE values of 1,300 to 1,500 J/kg, MLCAPE between 1,500 and 2,500 J/kg. Furthermore, far north-central and far northeastern Arkansas will need to be monitored closely for a conditional tornado potential as low level shear will be adequate along with enhanced vertical vorticity. The Storm Prediction Center has much of northern Arkansas within a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Friday as confidence has increased, but monitoring of this region will remain warranted as storm mode, placement, and timing will greatly impact the potential severe weather event which remains conditional overall. Stay tuned for possible increasing confidence along with updates, especially as both instability and shear look to be in place for this potential severe weather event.

Expect a region of strong to severe storms to be possible on Friday afternoon into Friday night across the northern half of Arkansas. At the moment, the primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

A cooler and drier airmass is anticipated to occupy the state behind the cold front which is forecast to move across the state on Friday. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region and overall temperatures near to below normal will be observed over this three- day stretch. The cold front is expected to completely clear Arkansas, but become a stationary front within the Mid-South region of the CONUS which will keep limited opportunities for POPs in play across eastern Arkansas given the close proximity of the boundary to the eastern tier of the state.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An elongated upper lvl ridge begins to strengthen over the entire southern tier of the CONUS extending from over the Southwestern region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure moves into the region. Consequently, temperatures begin to increase overall and a hot and dry pattern will once again take control of the forecast. Into the middle of the upcoming week, heat product will once again likely be warranted and POP chances will diminish.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all TAF sites for the forecast period of Thursday morning through Friday morning. Included VCTS across all sites for a period of Thursday morning through Thursday evening as VCTS is expected across much of the state on Thursday, but confidence remains low on how widespread the activity will become. If a site does become impacted by an area of VCTS, a brief period of degraded VSBY to MVFR or IFR may occur, but recover quickly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Batesville AR 92 73 95 75 / 10 10 40 50 Camden AR 93 74 96 77 / 50 20 10 10 Harrison AR 87 72 91 70 / 40 20 30 50 Hot Springs AR 93 75 97 77 / 40 20 10 10 Little Rock AR 93 76 97 79 / 20 10 20 30 Monticello AR 94 76 96 78 / 40 10 30 20 Mount Ida AR 92 73 95 75 / 50 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 88 72 91 72 / 10 20 30 60 Newport AR 92 73 95 76 / 0 0 30 60 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 95 77 / 30 10 20 20 Russellville AR 92 74 98 75 / 40 20 20 30 Searcy AR 92 73 95 75 / 10 0 30 40 Stuttgart AR 93 75 96 78 / 10 10 30 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>045-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140- 141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.