textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected Saturday morning on the Caprock, mainly west of I-27/US-87.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected, but storms could produce gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week, with highs generally in the upper 90s to low 100s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A broad upper-low centered over the Permian Basin Friday night will slide northeastward on Saturday. As it does, a mid-level shear and moisture axis will shift east over the western Panhandle and South Plains. We expect that some showers and perhaps a t-storm or two will develop underneath this axis Saturday morning across our western counties. This activity should gradually wane in the late morning. Then, underneath the relatively cooler pocket of air aloft associated with the upper-low, we anticipate that diurnal heating will kick off isolated to scattered shower and t-storm development (about a 20-40% chance) across the forecast area Saturday afternoon. It's hard to pinpoint any particular focus for development, aside from the topographically favored area around Caprock Canyons. Warmer temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s) will result in greater instability and potential for some downburst wind gusts with any stronger storms. And with the upper-low/shear axis still hanging out over the area Saturday evening, we could see some lingering activity, the bulk of which will likely gradually shift south-southwestward through the evening.

Sunday, while the upper-low center should reform well off to our southwest, we will maintain an upper trough axis and plentiful lower and mid-level moisture across the area, so we would expect it not to be completely dry. Although lift, shear and convergence will be meager, conditions should support at least some isolated late day activity.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Weak troughing aloft will persist into Monday, although by that time the mid-levels start to really dry out and looks like we'll be commencing our extended dry period. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will show a gradual warming trend but above normal...a harbinger of the hot days to come...

By the middle of next week we are going to get a taste of the heat that has been plaguing the northern states for the past week or so. The upper high will shift southward, taking root over the Southern Plains, and intensify. Tuesday should see a return of highs above 100F in the Rolling Plains and by Thursday highs at most locations across the forecast area should be near 100F at minimum. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for locations in the Rolling Plains by Wed or Thu (and maybe a smaller heat advisory needed for the hot Canyon areas in Briscoe and Hall Counties as early as Tuesday).

Medium-range guidance indicates that the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary through at least next Sunday, keeping the hot and dry conditions going with little change day to day. Beyond Sunday the 26th, guidance begins to diverge, with some (but not all) solutions suggest that the ridge could begin to loosen its grip on the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Isolated showers have developed across the Caprock this morning, where they may linger into the KLBB terminal after 12Z. No impacts are expected with this activity with VFR conditions expected to be maintained. Showers will diminish by late morning with a secondary chance for -RA and -TSRA possible by the late afternoon at both KLBB and KPVW. Prompting a PROB30 mention at both sites. Confidence decreases with northward extent, although the chance is nonzero, have kept precipitation out of the KCDS TAF at this time.

Southerly winds will remain light for much of the day around 5-10KTs, backing out of the southeast through the late evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.