textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Well above average temperatures continue into mid-next week.

- Rain chances remain for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Quiet conditions are expected the rest of today through early Friday evening. Westerly surface winds will become more northerly by the late afternoon/early evening as a weak cold front moves into the region following a very subtle upper shortwave trough. Winds will shift to the east by sunrise Friday, gradually becoming southeasterly by early Friday evening as surface high pressure moves across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Upper ridging will break free from the blocking pattern to our west by this afternoon and will move overhead by tonight. This will warm highs this afternoon into the mid/upper 60s on the Caprock and low/mid 70s off the Caprock with overnight lows only dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s. The forward progression of the upper ridge will slow by Friday morning with the ridge axis remaining directly overhead all day Friday, helping to warm highs into the 70s area wide.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The blocking pattern will begin to break down Friday night an upper low tracks southward along the southern California coast and an upper trough over northeastern Canada both contribute to flatten the ridge over our area. A shortwave over the Rockies will lead to the development of relatively lower surface pressure to the south and winds will therefore increase out of the SW bringing well- above average highs. Despite the ridge not being as pronounced, heights exceeding ~576 Dm will allow for high temperatures to climb into the low-to-mid 70s. A surface front will move trough Sunday and winds will gradually veer from SW to NE. This will however have little effect on temperatures as upper heights remain similar to Saturday. The aforementioned upper low will become cutoff from the main flow and move onshore over Baja California, tracking eastward on Monday. Long range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement bringing it farther south than previous iterations. GFS has a more progressive solution showing the low becoming an open wave and moving more quickly over our area Tuesday while the ECMWF keeps it as a closed low over Chihuahua through Tuesday evening (which would bring a greater chance of rain). Precipitation potential continues to be much more favorable off to the east after the low evolves into a more broad trough, however given the moisture/vorticity advection ahead of whatever form the low takes, rain chances have been retained for late Monday through Tuesday. After a mid-week lull, a potentially larger system may affect the region later next week but details remain highly uncertain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR next 24 hours, with light winds. KCDS wind observations are unreliable due to a sensor error. Check NOTAMs.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.