textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- The warming trend will continue through the work week, with temperatures back above normal by mid-week.

- Mostly dry conditions will continue through the work week, with chances for rain returning by late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening depicts a shortwave trough over SOCAL, with a ridge extending from the Rockies southeastward towards the Texas Gulf Coast. Through tonight, the shortwave will gradually weaken as it translates northeastward into the Desert Southwest. This will allow the ridge to flatten while shifting eastward as southwesterly flow aloft persist across the region. Any perturbations embedded within this flow may attempt to tap into the limited midlevel moisture, though the overall environment appears unfavorable for meaningful precipitation. With any shower that develops likely being "virga" with the outcome being a localized strong wind gust or two rather than precipitation reaching the ground. As such, dry conditions are expected to prevail overnight, with mostly clear skies and light southerly winds allowing lows to fall into the mid to upper 40s. Heading into the start of the work week, the warming trend will continue as southerly surface flow promotes increased thickness values despite the weakening geopotential heights associated with the departing upper ridge. Though warmer, temperatures will still be on the cooler side and just below or right at seasonal standards for this time of year in the 70s area-wide. Additionally, southerly surface winds will remain on the lighter side from what we have seen the last few days, with speeds generally less than 15 mph. Quiet and dry conditions will continue Monday night, with the warming trend continuing with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 50s while southerly flow works to maintain the warmer airmass in place.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The FA will remain under the influence of the upper level ridge through the first half of the extended period, with the ridge axis shifting back westward and becoming more amplified Wednesday. This blocking pattern will be supported by a closed low developing near the Carolina coastline, while a secondary closed low over the PacNW digs southward toward Baja California. Increasing geopotential heights and thickness values, along with continued WAA from southwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing, will continue to support the gradual warming trend through the week. Temperatures will climb above seasonal normals by Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Along with the warming afternoon temperatures, we can also expect the drier trend to continue as well through much of the work week.

Heading into the weekend, guidance continues to hint at a potential return of precipitation as the upper level pattern begins to evolve. However, considerable differences remain among deterministic guidance regarding the timing and progression of the broader trough, with the ECMWF favoring a more progressive solution while the GFS develops a closed low near the base of the trough. Despite these differences, ensemble guidance continues to suggest some potential for precipitation across much of the region. Given the vast amount of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the system with it being several days out, will continue to monitor trends as new guidance becomes available and in better agreement. For now, will maintain

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR is expected to continue through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.