textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
- September starts where August left off hot and dry.
- A few afternoon storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday near the NM border.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
It may be September in a few hours, but summer's grip remains strong which is not unusual for Texas. Winds in the 20-30k foot layer remain SSE on the back side of a broad ridge, the center of which is taking aim on the Ozarks tonight and eventually the Great Smokies by Wednesday. As the high shoves farther east, our upper-level winds will veer more SW on Tuesday and Wednesday helping to advect a layer of monsoonal moisture closer to the TX-NM border. It remains too unlikely for any of these monsoonal showers and storms to drift into our territory on Tuesday, but Wednesday holds a bit more potential for some afternoon showers and storms near the NM border. Otherwise, high temps on Tuesday will dial back to their lowest levels all week with low/mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s/100 elsewhere before creeping higher on Wednesday. Similar to Monday, less subsidence and sufficient boundary layer moisture will support scattered cumulus with precious shade through the afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
On Thursday, the remains of Edouard should be found wobbling around central or northern Texas while we hold onto a fraction of monsoonal moisture largely anchored over southern AZ and NM. This moist plume should aid in another round of very spotty afternoon showers/storms across our far W-NW zones. High temps should reach their hottest readings for the week on Thursday before thicknesses decline thereafter accompanying deeper ESE flow thanks to the upper high retreating and staying just north of I40. Ensemble spread grows this weekend into next week regarding this high's position and strength, yet it remains close enough to us to keep a lid on additional precip chances.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
VFR and light southerly winds will continue.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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