textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Cooler and windy this afternoon, thanks to an early morning cold front.

- Gradual warming trend this weekend with the return of southerly breezes.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible by mid to late week next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Current satellite imagery along with WTM stations across the region depict the front that brought us the blast of cooler air and stronger wind gusts is oriented along a line from Marfa-San-Angelo- Durant(OK) late this morning. In it's wake, northerly wind gusts have peaked at 68 MPH in the far southeastern Texas Panhandle early this morning. Thankfully, gusts will continue to trend downward through the remainder of the morning through the afternoon hours, although gusts will still vary around 30 to 40 MPH as winds begin to slowly veer out of the east-northest this afternoon as the surface high pressure tracks southward through the Central/Southern Plains. Although not producing reduced visibility's, at this time, patchy blowing dusts has been reported at observation sites and may cause isolated periods of reduced visibility's at times. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these increased wind speeds through 7 PM CDT. Moisture associated with this FROPA, primarily at the lower to mid- levels has lead to a thick stratus deck across the region. With the anticipation of these low CIGS to stick around through the remainder of the day and overnight, we expect cooler high temperatures from the NBM, so we opted for a cooler blend of NBM 25th percentile and CONSMOS with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Despite cooler temperatures and an uptick in RH this afternoon from previous days, critically dry ERC values combined with the gusty winds will lead to at least near-critical to potentially critical fire danger across portions of the FA, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8 PM CDT this evening. Overnight, winds will remain breezy around 15 to 20 MPH while stratus continues to linger through late Saturday morning/early afternoon, which will work to limit radiational cooling in some capacity. Despite this, overnight lows will still be much cooler from previous nights in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region.

Quiet weather will return Saturday as the 588 dam upper level high shifts into portions of central Texas. Easterly winds Saturday morning will quickly become more southward and breezy as lee surface troughing resumes in southeastern CO by the afternoon time frame. Speeds will remain highest across the far southwestern TX Panhandle, closer to the surface trough to our north where the tighter pressure gradient resides. Nonetheless, a "cooler" day is expected thanks to lingering stratus, although still 10 to 15 degrees warmer from today, with highs in the 60s area-wide.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward by the start of the extended period in response to an upper level trough moving through the PacNW region. Despite this, we will remain under the influence of subsidence from the upper high which will result in above normal temperatures returning by the start of the work week with highs in the 90s area-wide. However, things begin to shift towards the middle of the week as the upper level trough to our north begins to translate eastward through the Intermountain West into the High Plains. Simultaneously, it will send a modest FROPA into the region as early as Tuesday morning as predicted by some global models, although influence of this front will likely not be felt until Wednesday given the late timing of the FROPA Tuesday. Although given this is still several days out, confidence in timing remains low at this time. Nonetheless, cooler highs are forecasted Wednesday, dropping back into the 60s and 70s for much of the area. As for precipitation chances by mid to late next week, there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms area-wide but will likely depend on the amount of moisture return we see out ahead of the H5 disturbance rippling through the main flow across the Desert Southwest. Ensembles are hinting at potentially enough moisture advection from the gulf to supply surface moisture, combined with southwest flow moisture transport via the H5 jet stream. Therefore, depending on how much moisture and where and if we see upper level lift and instability will determine if and when we see shower and thunderstorm chances next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Northeasterly winds will continue to gradually diminish through tonight, with winds veering eastward by midnight and weakening to around 10 kt or less. VFR stratus is expected to remain over KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through Saturday afternoon as winds transition towards the south at all terminals.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.