textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday evening across portions of the South Plains and far southwest Panhandle.
- Hot and dry this weekend into next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Southerly winds will remain elevated near 15 mph overnight again keeping low temperatures on the mild side, ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. A trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will become less amplified during the day Friday and high pressure over the Southeast will track slightly farther west. Thus mid-level flow will be oriented such that a southwesterly fetch of monsoonal moisture will make its way into the area. Unlike Thursday and due in part to the aforementioned ridge shifting westward, the storms should be confined more to the far southwest Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains. Forecast sounding profiles look almost identical to Thursday's, with DCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots. As such, brief strong winds to 60 mph and heavy downpours will be the main threat. Any storms should taper off by late-evening.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
The upper ridge will shift farther west by Saturday. Although some isolated storms could still possibly find their way into far northwestern portions of the area Saturday evening, a mostly hot and dry pattern looks to continue well into next week. Highs will increase by a degree or so each day starting Sunday, climbing into the upper 90s on the Caprock and low-to-mid 100s off the Caprock.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
VFR conditions continue, along with modest southerly winds sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Isolated storm development is expected near and west of I-27 this afternoon/evening. Chances are highest west of KLBB/KPVW, and were not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Still, there is at least a low chance (10%) for a storm or the associated erratic winds to impact KLBB/KPVW between 21-02z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.
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