textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Unseasonably hot weather will continue each day through the weekend with new record highs possible from Thursday through Sunday.

- Elevated to critical fire danger is possible Saturday and Sunday.

- A brief cooldown is expected Monday before above normal temperatures return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Satellite imagery highlights extraordinarily intense upper ridging (by March standards) centered near Las Vegas NV as of late Wednesday evening. Models remain in excellent agreement that this ridge will continue to build slightly as it slowly moves eastward over the next 24 hours, which will result in a continuation of the ongoing warming trend across our region. After a mild overnight and early morning period, temperatures will easily soar into the 90s across the region Thursday afternoon, aided by modest downslope surface westerlies courtesy of weak troughing over the TX Panhandle and 850mb temperatures in the 25-28C range. The current record high of 89 at Lubbock (2017) and 92 at Childress (2017) are both likely to fall on Thursday. Luckily, surface flow will remain relatively light given the diffuse nature of the above-mentioned trough, with fire weather concerns therefore expected to remain minimal.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The early-season heat wave will continue on Friday and Saturday, with the upper ridge axis progged to center over the AZ/NM state line during the first half of the weekend. Friday will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday with highs area-wide generally in the mid to upper 90s. Saturday is then expected to be even hotter with highs on the Caprock in the upper 90s with some low 100s east of the escarpment. Compared to previous forecasts, winds on Saturday are now expected to be a bit stronger (perhaps as high as 15 to 20 mph over the SW TX Panhandle) as models indicate a sub-1000mb surface trough developing over NE NM. Should this occur, critical fire weather conditions would be possible on Saturday afternoon with humidity as low as 5 percent, and this will be something to watch closely as the weekend approaches.

During the second half of the weekend, there is good model agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and retreat southward which will in turn allow a cold front to pass southward through the central plains and into our region sometime on Sunday. Exactly when the front arrives is uncertain which needless to say will have a large impact on temperatures, but for now a slower evolution appears favored which would result in another day of highs in the 90s on Sunday afternoon. A brief cooldown is expected to follow on Monday, but well above normal temperatures are likely to return Tuesday and beyond as the upper ridge quickly rebuilds to our west with no precipitation chances in sight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR and light winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.