textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Slight chance for storms across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains later this afternoon and evening.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances and cooler temperatures expected through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A nice and pleasant Sunday remains on track. Current water vapor imagery indicates an upper negatively tilted trough across northwestern CONUS and upper ridging across the Gulf states. With the CWA sitting between the two upper disturbances, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft. An embedded shortwave currently sitting over northern Mexico will pass across the southern half of the CWA this afternoon. Slight thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures this afternoon a few more degrees compared to yesterday with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Surface observations show a dryline currently sitting part way through the CWA. Dewpoints of upper 20s to lower 30s are across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains behind the dryline and in the 60s across the rest of the CWA ahead of the dryline. Models indicate the dryline will shift a little farther southeast into the CWA this afternoon before stalling just southeast of Lubbock. Forcing from convergence ahead of the dryline and the passing of the upper shortwave will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to southern portions of the CWA this afternoon and evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will usher in subtropical moisture to the mid and upper levels, however with soundings indicating drier lower levels, high based thunderstorms are expected. Decent instability with CAPE values up to 1700 J/kg make severe thunderstorms possible. The mains hazards expected for any severe thunderstorms is strong winds up to 70 mph and hail up to quarter size. All storms are expected to clear the region just before midnight.

Once the thunderstorms pass, the rest of the overnight period is expected to be quiet with a decent gradient of low temperatures. Lows will be in the lower 50s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle up to lower 70s over the southern Rolling Plains where clouds will linger through early Monday morning hindering radiational cooling. Another hot day is expected Monday. The aforementioned upper ridging will build west over the region keeping temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s. Early Monday afternoon, winds will shift to the southeast resulting in gulf moisture filling in on the lower levels. Despite the subsidence from the upper ridging keeping much of the region dry, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across western portions of the CWA during the late afternoon and evening with moist upslope flow. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with not much to note in terms of instability or forcing. However, a strong wind gust or two and some small hail cannot be ruled out. Any storms are expected to clear the region before midnight.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An upper level pattern change will bring daily storm chances and cooler temperatures for the long term forecast. Upper ridging will prevail overhead through early Tuesday before getting pushed east as an upper trough begins to develop along the coast of Baja California. At the same time, an upper low will spin over the border between Canada and Montana. Plenty of moisture is expected on all levels with southeasterly surface flow ushering in gulf moisture and southwesterly flow aloft bringing subtropical moisture to the mid and upper levels. Similar to Monday, storms are expected to develop across western portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon due to upslope flow and expand across the rest of the region overnight. Widespread storm chances will continue through Friday. There is not much in terms of instability through the rest of the week, therefore severe thunderstorm chances are low. However, with moderate instability some isolated severe thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, mainly Wednesday through Friday with the current storm total QPF ranging from 1" to just above 2". However, despite the sufficient moisture on all levels, this forecaster is not confident on over 2" of rainfall. We could see a break in precipitation by the weekend as the upper trough to the west of the region finally tracks northwest through central CONUS and low amplitude ridging fills in just south of the CWA. As for temperatures, with prolonged storms and cloud cover, we will get a reprieve from the hot temperatures by mid-week with highs in the 80s at least through Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at KLBB through 01z. Otherwise VFR and light winds will continue at all sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.