textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Dry and quiet weather continues through the week.

- Temperatures will regulate throughout the week as a series of cold fronts impact the area Wednesday, then again Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Not much to report for the short term, with benign weather expected across the South Plains as mostly zonal flow prevails aloft. After a chilly start to the morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, southwest flow at the surface combined with a subtle uptick in thickness and heights, will aid in temperatures climbing into the 60s across much of the area, except for portions of the southwester South Plains where high clouds will likely keep temperatures in the upper 50s. Overnight Monday into Tuesday looks to be slightly warmer, but still chilly, in the mid 20s to mid 30s thanks to max radiational cooling from calm winds and clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Dry and quiet is the best way to describe the extended forecast package early this morning, as temperatures regulate between near normal and below normal through the week into the weekend. By Tuesday morning a rex block pattern is depicted to set up across the CONUS as an H5 upper high moves into the PacNW, while a cutoff low transits through the Big Country. Off to the east, an upper level low over the Canadian Provinces will continue to amplify, while a shortwave on the southern periphery of the low dives into the Great Lakes, developing into a closed low towards the end of the work week. As for the South Plains, the forecast remains dry as the cutoff low over the Big Country stays to our south tracking into the piney woods of Texas by Wednesday. Thereafter, precipitation looks scarce with no PoPs in the foreseeable future of the extended at this time. As for temperatures, the start of the extended Tuesday looks to be one of the warmest days of the week, in the mid 60s to low 70s, as thickness and heights subtly increase along with southwest surface flow prevailing. Wednesday temperatures will cool nearly 15 to 20 degrees as a cold front progresses southward in response to the upper wave tracking into the Great Lakes. At this time, most guidance has this front tracking its way through the entire FA by noon, which would keep afternoon highs on the cooler side. At this time, this seems reasonable given the post-frontal wind speeds around 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts up to 35 MPH. NBM continues to be a bit warm, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, compared to the cooler MOS guidance depicting highs in the lower 50s for much of the FA. Will go ahead and increase speeds behind the front with a blend of NBM 75th, but will hold off on any temperature changes at this time given the potential for run to run difference and forecast uncertainty. However, adjustments to lower temperatures will likely be needed if the NBM remains on the warmer side. We then warm back into the 60s and 70s Thursday as the ridge to our west extends further east, increasing heights across our area briefly. Thankfully by Friday a secondary front will begin to march through as an additional wave tracks through the Upper Midwest. Regarding the timing of this front, models diverge with the overall timing, so will opt to maintain with the faster and cooler solution provided this time by the NBM. However, similar to earlier, adjustments may be needed in the next few days as models become more in sync with the timing of the FROPA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.