textproduct: Lubbock

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The southern-stream shortwave trough has emerged over W TX, and is beginning to become absorbed into a larger-scale trough encompassing the northern half of the U.S. The vorticity lobe embedded within this basal trough is compact, and will continue to be stretched and deformed as it becomes absorbed into the large-scale trough. This system is responsible for the last bout of light snow currently ongoing across most of the Caprock. Light snow will end before sunset as the base of the trough pivots east of the CWA, with clouds clearing quickly in its wake as the sun begins to set. Record low temperatures are expected tonight, with effectively all locales to observe temperatures below zero deg F tonight. Winds will diminish to below 10 mph, but with temperatures this cold, even a gentle breeze will result in wind chills as low as -10 to -15 deg F. The Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect until noon CST Monday across the entire CWA. Freezing fog will be possible area-wide tonight as the airmass nears its saturation point, but it is unclear if freezing fog will become dense.

Winds will veer westward early Monday afternoon, with full insolation expected. The snowpack will keep high temperatures below freezing for most of the CWA. The combination of full insolation and the westerly breeze will commence melting and sublimation of the snowpack. Black ice may be problematic Monday night due to the high liquid water content associated with the snowpack and overnight temperatures falling into the upper single-digits area-wide, as any prior melting will refreeze overnight.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The Arctic airmass will begin to erode Tuesday, as the base of the large-scale troughing pivots towards the Eastern Seaboard and allow the eastern edge of a shortwave ridge over the western U.S. to slosh over the High Plains. Northwesterly flow will persist over the CWA for most of the week due to the blocking of the synoptic-scale flow over North America, with temperatures recovering into the middle 40s through Thursday. A dry forecast has been maintained through all of next week, with a shortwave trough progressing southeastward to the west of the CWA by late-week. Temperatures will remain below normal heading into the weekend following the passage of what should be a dry cold front.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Light snow is expected at KLBB and KPVW through 21Z, with brisk, northerly winds. MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs will accompany this final batch of light snow, with all terminals returning to VFR by sunset along with diminishing winds. Freezing fog may develop around 09Z and last through 15Z Monday at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. VSBYs are forecast to reduce to MVFR, with MVFR CIGs possible from 09-15Z before returning to VFR by the end of the TAF period. In-cloud icing can be expected with CIGs irrespective of flight category.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ027>044.