textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains late Thursday afternoon and evening.

- A few storms may be severe, with damaging winds up to 60 mph possible late Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Hot and breezy weather is expected through the weekend, with cooler temperatures and more storm chances arriving early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday morning) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

02Z upper air analysis depicts a subtropical ridge centered directly over the CWA, with a bifurcated jet stream that phases over the Eastern Seaboard. To the west, a negatively-tilted shortwave trough was digging into the Palouse Hills and Selkirk Mountains, with the southern-stream trough, which was more-broad and positively-tilted, meandering offshore CA. Large-scale forcing for ascent has since overspread the entire chain of the Rocky Mountains, with the leading edge of the southern-stream 250 mb jet streak, analyzed near 70 kt by the 14/00Z UA charts, nosing into the Sea of Cortez. The 14/00Z RAOBs upstream of the CWA (i.e., ABQ, EPZ, and MMCU) sampled the plume of Pacific moisture quite well, with high humidity above 500 mb at all three sites. Strong, mixed-layer theta-e advection was observed beneath the cloud base at those RAOB sites, with similar boundary-layer profiles that were also observed by the 14/00Z RAOBs from WFOs AMA and MAF. The progressiveness of the mean troughing to the west of the CWA will cause the subtropical ridge to shift east over the next 24 hours, and geopotential height falls will commence by dawn Thursday across the region.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was draped across the Red River Valley and into the far southeastern TX PH before bending northwestward into eastern CO. A lee cyclone was located near ELP, with a surface trough branching north-northeastward from the low and connecting to a weak circulation embedded within the stalled front near DHT per recent WTM data. Broad return flow was underway across the CWA, with southerly winds evident on WTM data amidst dewpoints ranging from 30 degrees near the NM state line to above 50 degrees immediately east of the 100th meridian, the latter of which is a demarcation of the quasi-stationary front. Rapid moisture return will occur by the predawn hours Thursday despite winds veering as the lee cyclone near ELP rotates northeastward. As the geopotential height falls ensue, the tranche of the surface trough extending southward from the lee cyclone will transition into a dryline and begin propagating eastward after sunrise due to the net increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Meanwhile, the quasi-stationary front will also undergo warm-frontogenesis and lift northeastward into west-central OK, allowing the dryline to propagate into the eastern Rolling Plains by the late afternoon hours Thursday. Winds will become breezy area-wide in response to large-scale pressure falls across the Great Plains, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph on the Caprock while backing to the south at 20-30 mph in the Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop on the Caprock.

Scattered, high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop over eastern NM and advect into the CWA this afternoon, perhaps as early as 20Z, in congruence with the eastward mixing dryline. The strong theta-e advection observed within the mixed-layer by the RAOBs farther west of the CWA this evening will translate into modest CAPE as the mid-levels cool following the departure of the ridge. SBCAPE and MUCAPE parcel trajectories will become aligned owing to intense surface heating as temperatures soar into the middle 90s on the Caprock to near 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains, with mixing heights ascending to near 600 mb (LCL/LFC level). Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but the emergence of the leading edge of the 250 mb jet streak currently nosing into the Sea of Cortez will contribute to the elongation of hodographs, leading to the development of loosely-organized bands/clusters of high-based, diurnally-driven storms. Cloud-layer shear will increase to around 50 kt as the 250 mb jet streak arrives, which will warrant a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with storms Thursday afternoon. Theta deficits generated by severe-caliber outflow may produce a localized haboob event, especially with the worsening drought conditions across W TX. Brief downpours will accompany the strongest storms, and the footprint of wetting rainfall will be localized due to the significant effects of evaporative (wet-bulb) cooling beneath cloud base. PoPs have been raised from the dry NBM to account for this thinking, with storm chances waning after dark as the boundary-layer decouples. Warm lows are expected Friday morning due to the southwesterly breeze.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with little change necessitated for this cycle. Slightly positive geopotential height tendencies and dry, southwesterly winds will result in temperatures rising up to and above 100 degrees for most of the CWA Friday through Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions for Friday will be contingent on the footprint of rainfall the previous day, but breezy winds and very low relative humidity will warrant some potential for the growth and spread of fires on the Caprock. Highs will be slightly hotter Saturday, with near-record highs both Friday and Saturday afternoon; and highs should remain below advisory-level across the Rolling Plains. Large-scale pressure falls will steepen Sunday across the Great Plains as an amplifying trough pivots over the Rocky Mountains, with breezy winds forecast as the dryline stalls in the eastern Rolling Plains. Storm chances may clip the eastern Rolling Plains, but this potential should be limited as storms would move off quickly to the northeast. By early next week, a synoptic cold front is forecast to arrive and advect cooler temperatures into the region. As of now, low PoPs are present across the Rolling Plains for early next week, but adjustments will be needed in forthcoming forecast cycles.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR and south-southwest breezes will prevail through this TAF period. Scattered high-based TS are expected to develop this afternoon and may bring brief periods of strong and erratic winds to the terminals after about 20z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.