textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Tuesday will be the last warm day before cooling to more fall like temperatures through the rest of the week.

- A strong storm system will bring an unsettled weather pattern beginning Tuesday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As previously expected, widely isolated thunderstorms have developed across eastern New Mexico along a theta-e axis. Due to a lack of upper level support and general instability, these storms are having a hard time sustaining themselves and are short lived. A few storms are likely to move into our western zones early this morning before quickly dissipating. The severe threat with this activity remains low. A lull in storm activity is expected through much of the day after sunrise until the late afternoon. Models have been in decent agreement with having an upper shortwave trough move over the region helping to enhance upper lift. Overall lift will not be overly exciting, but it will be enough for storm development when combined with rich moisture both in the low and mid levels and surface convergence along a dryline-like surface feature. Where this feature will ultimately develop is still in question, though the general consensus between models is near to east of the I27/US87 corridor. A LLJ will help to sustain overnight convection. There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms this evening through the overnight hours with the main threat being severe wind gusts from wet microbursts. Also prevalent will be the potential for flooding. Storm motion will be from southwest to northeast, parallel with the upper flow. There will be a decent potential for training storms, and heavy rainfall will be very possible given PWATs near or over 1.75 inches, 90% or higher than average for this time of year. Overall confidence in rainfall amounts and especially storm location is still too low for any flooding headlines at this time.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stronger lift will arrive Wednesday morning as the Texas gulf coast ridge slides east with the western US trough slowly moving eastward across the Intermountain West. Severe chances are unclear for Wednesday with expected ongoing precipitation and expected cloud cover. The most pressing issue, however, will be the threat for heavy rainfall through the day on Wednesday and on Thursday. Moisture will definitely not be an issue for precipitation chances from Wednesday through Thursday. Periods of lift are expected along with an intruding cold front which is difficult to pinpoint at this time scale in the forecast. The threat for heavy rainfall on Tuesday afternoon/evening appears to be minimal given that storms are expected to be moving quick enough to prevent widespread heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values were already near maximum values from latest raobs and these values are expected to only climb higher over the next few days. Mean precipitable water values from ensemble guidance is near or exceeds two inches in some areas off the caprock which is already a high amount for summer months. But this is October, which places these values in record territory. These values drop to around 1.50 inches near the I-27 corridor but these values still exceed the 99th percentile for October. Furthermore, mixing ratios at 850mb will surge to near 16 g/kg by Tuesday afternoon. This amount of moisture is due to the low level flow from the gulf combined with mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Simon off the coast of western Mexico. All that being said, the main forecast issue will be timing of lift to act upon this abundant moisture from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. With the expected cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures have been adjusted downward from blended guidance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Models now show fairly good agreement in pinching off an upper low across the southwestern US from this trough as the remainder of the trough gets swept up with another trough dropping southeast through the Great Lakes. It is this Canadian trough that will provide us with our first strong cold front of the season. Exact timing of the front is uncertain given that it is still at least 5-6 days away. Nonetheless, the front will bring strong winds its immediate wake. Models are depicting a 1040mb surface ridge behind this front dropping into the Plains Friday and Saturday. Current forecast morning temperatures next weekend are in the 40s with 30s in the southwestern Texas Panhandle but could likely drop lower with subsequent forecasts given the strength of this surface high.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through this afternoon, though MVFR to IFR CIGs may threaten all terminals with developing -TSRA late this evening. Confidence remains highest at CDS, which is why a prevailing mention was added versus a PROB30 like at PVW/LBB. Nonetheless, if storms are able to develop, reduced VSBYs from heavy rainfall and variable gusty winds will be possible. There is also some hinting by guidance on low-stratus developing near LBB early Wednesday morning, though confidence is too low for a mention at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.