textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Additional thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, some severe.

- Chances for storms continue almost every afternoon and evening next week.

- Hot temperatures next week with possible Heat Advisories by late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The regional surface map at 10 PM featured at least three outflow boundaries; one bisecting the South Plains, another in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, and a more prominent example along I-40. All of these outflows were in advance of a weak front in the northern Texas Panhandle preceding a broad sector of ENE breezes. This front is scheduled to continue its southward push overnight and reach the South Plains and Rolling Plains by mid-morning, before stalling nearby or even retreating thereafter. The latest NBM did lower high temps across the board which fits well with this weak front and its light E-NE winds.

Following any leftover morning showers or brief storms with the front, the next and bigger bout of storms should develop by early afternoon near the decaying front. There is also a signal for an MCV or two loitering nearby in light northerly flow aloft, so PoPs remain broad in coverage with a general preference for locations nearest the front. The degree of CAPE is in question more than usual as some models mix out dewpoints on the Caprock into the 40s resulting in miniscule CAPEs. Will opt for an ensemble mean that depicts 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE (highest off the Caprock), with DCAPEs equal to even greater given a deep and dry sub-cloud layer. As such, downbursts would be the greatest severe storm threat. These storms are likely to move with a bit more conviction thanks to a deeper and more uniform northerly flow in the cloud-bearing layer, so PoPs tapering overnight from north-to-south look good.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Additional storms remains in the offing at times next week as the forecast area remains on the eastern flank of a sprawling dome of high pressure over southern New Mexico and Arizona. The main exception to storms occurs Tuesday through Thursday as the ridge axis trends more zonal while expanding over the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains, effectively suppressing deep convection. No coincidence, these days are also host to our hottest numbers of the forecast with some locales off the Caprock pushing Heat Advisory levels (105-109 degrees). Thereafter, the upper high retreats and eventually amplifies over the northern Rockies. This process opens our doors to what looks like an unsettled northerly flow regime from Thursday night into the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

There is a chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon through this evening at all sites, particularly KPVW and KLBB. Winds could be gusty and erratic within any storms. Otherwise VFR and light winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.