textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Storm chances this evening, mainly over the Rolling Plains.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Friday evenings, mainly off the Caprock.

- Elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

All storms have now departed the area. Outside of some potential brief higher gusts, winds will remain generally out of the southwest around 10-15 mph overnight. This along with some lingering cloud cover will moderate morning lows into the mid 50s on the Caprock and low 60s off the Caprock. A very similar day is expected today, with mostly sunny skies during the day and southwest winds again bringing highs into the low 90s. An upper shortwave will move over the area by the early evening and a dryline looks to set up south and east of the I-27 corridor. This will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. MUCAPE is currently in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. However, the current synoptic setup and potential capping should keep these confined to the Rolling Plains. As with last night's storms, the main threat would be strong winds. CAMs indicate the threat ending at a similar time around 9-10 PM. Given sustained westerly winds, warmer temperatures, and favorable fuels, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon/evening for areas on the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An upper trough and surface cold front moving through during the day Wednesday will lead to height falls and thus slightly cooler high temperatures, in the low-to-mid 80s on the Caprock. Forcing parameters will increase by late-afternoon as the trough axis moves through the area along with a potent low-level jet. Despite all this, dewpoints remain unimpressive for much of the area behind the aforementioned front and any storms should develop off the Caprock and quickly depart east of the CWA due to the fast westerly steering flow. Winds would likely be the main threat. Breezy sustained winds near 25 mph will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to the western South Plains and far SW Texas Panhandle. Blowing dust is also possible, potentially leading to periods of reduced visibility.

Zonal flow aloft and the absence of any upper waves will bring a lull in the active weather pattern on Thursday. Winds will turn westerly to southerly through the day and highs will generally top out in the mid 80s. However, given dry fuels, elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions are possible area-wide. The parade of upper troughs will continue on Friday and again lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms. As the trough looks to be quite positively tilted, its orientation would be such that these would generally develop off the Caprock. Uncertainty still remains and depending if the dryline were to set up farther west, then the PoPs would follow suit. A surface cold front will accompany the aforementioned trough as it moves over the area and winds will switch to the NE, bringing cooler and more benign conditions this weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will continue overnight through Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon through evening for areas on the Caprock. Although westerly winds will only be sustained near 15 mph, RHs will be in the teens and fuels are favorable, as much of last night's precipitation occurred along and east of I-27 which was nonetheless not overly significant. There is also a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the Rolling Plains this evening. Strong and erratic winds along with lightning strikes are possible within these storms.

Westerly Winds will increase on Wednesday, potentially reaching near 30 mph sustained along the TX/NM border. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, however given the continued favorable fuels, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible the western South Plains and far SW Texas Panhandle.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.