textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Pleasant and mild Sunday ahead of a cold front passing through the region tonight.

- Chilly weather returns on Monday with an up-and-down trend in temperatures expected through the rest of the week as several cold fronts pass through the region.

- No precipitation is expected through at least the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Will be a much warmer and sunnier Sunday compared to Saturday. The upper trough that dominated central CONUS on Saturday will push across eastern CONUS through the day. Northwesterly flow aloft will gradually shift to mostly zonal flow as the trough translates away from the region and upper ridging over the Desert Southwest flattens. This morning will be cold as light winds and clear skies overnight will aid in temperatures cooling to the mid teens to mid 20s. Westerly winds are expected to pick up this afternoon as the development of a lee surface low tightens the pressure gradient. Slight thickness increases and moderate westerly surface flow will aid in warming temperatures to the 60s across the region. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast this evening as the lee surface low shifts south into New Mexico. However, this will not last long as a cold front is progged to push southwestward through the region overnight shifting winds to the northeast. Models indicate the front will reach the far southeastern Texas Panhandle around midnight. Light winds and mostly clear skies through the overnight hours will cool temperatures back into the 20s tonight.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Overall, the synoptic pattern will continue to support a repetitive cycle of cold frontal passages across the region through the upcoming week as deep longwave troughing persists over most of the continent. Another very chilly day is expected on Monday in the wake of the early day cold front, with low level easterly flow progged to be relatively strong as surface high pressure builds rapidly over KS. This combined with what should be relatively dense high level cloud cover should keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday afternoon, and enough clearing is expected to occur late in the day to allow temperatures to fall into the teens across a majority of the region by Tuesday morning. Lee surface troughing ahead of a weak midlevel shortwave will bring a return of southwesterly surface flow Tuesday, but such a cold antecedent airmass from Monday will be slow to erode, with highs Tuesday only recovering to the low to mid 50s. Temperatures are currently expected to warm back near or slightly above normal Wednesday, but uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases thereafter with guidance not in good agreement regarding the timing and intensity of the next series of cold fronts as flow aloft weakens and becomes more zonal. Current consensus suggests that Thursday and Friday will be relatively warm before another cooldown next weekend, with some stronger winds also possible during this period. Otherwise, dry weather continues with no precipitation chances through at least the next seven days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR. A weak cold front will pass through KCDS and KPVW this afternoon, switching west winds to the north. West winds at KLBB will back to the south by late afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.