textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Cooler through Monday.

- Warmer and breezy conditions mid-next week with possible critical fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

An upper ridge will move into the area from the west overnight and an north-south oriented surface high pressure will build in to the north and east. Mostly clear skies and calm winds will lead to the coldest morning lows in some time, with widespread low-to-mid 20s and possible teens over the far southwest Panhandle. With the absence of any embedded shortwaves, there will be no significant low pressure development in the lee of the Rockies and thus winds will finally be light for a change, only peaking out of the south near 10 mph this afternoon along and west of I-27, with even lighter SE winds off the Caprock. With the weaker warm advection, highs will only minimally recover to around 3-5 degrees warmer than Saturday. Winds will slightly diminish overnight Sunday into Monday, with morning lows generally in the mid-to-upper 20s bringing a cool start to the work week. A weak shortwave moving over the Rockies Monday afternoon will allow for somewhat lower surface pressure to our northwest and southerly winds will increase to 15-20 mph for most areas. This will again bring a subsequent slight increase in temperatures with highs in the low-to-mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Winds will remain elevated near 10 mph overnight Monday into Tuesday, moderating Tuesday morning lows in the 30s. Further embedded and slightly stronger shortwaves will propagate across the Rockies Tuesday and lower surface pressure near 1000 mb will be centered east of Amarillo during the afternoon hours. This will lead to an increase in southwesterly winds across much of the area, with gusts to near 30 mph possible. Temperatures likewise increase as a result and highs are expected to reach into the low 80s for many areas, particularly off the Caprock. Combined with humidities falling into the single digits, critical fire weather concerns are appearing more likely. The aforementioned low pressure will slowly track southeastward Wednesday. While its exact track remains uncertain, models have consistently shown it moving generally over areas off the Caprock. As such, winds would be lighter there and stronger towards the TX/NM border where therefore greatest fire weather concerns would occur. After a cold front switching winds back to northerly on Thursday, warmer conditions look to return late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR and light winds next 24 hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.