textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Elevated fire danger along the NM/TX border expected to continue through the afternoon.

- Cooler Thursday before much warmer temperatures and fire weather conditions return this weekend. - Possible return of precipitation to start off next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Northerly winds will continue to prevail for the next couple of hours as a surface low sits to the southeast of our region. An upper shortwave translating over the Rockies this afternoon will trigger the development of a lee surface low over northeastern New Mexico bringing breezy west to northwesterly winds across the Caprock. Surface observations as of 11 AM from the WTM shows breezy westerly winds have started over southwestern zones of the South Plains. Elevated fire danger conditions are expected this afternoon along the NM/TX border due to breezy winds and RH values in the lower teens. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening as the lee surface low translates southeast across the CWA. Light and variable winds will prevail overnight before an upper trough swings a cold front through the region. Models indicate the front should reach the northern CWA border a little after midnight and should exit the region around sunrise. Cooler temperatures and moderate to breezy north to northeasterly winds will follow the front. However, this does not last long as another lee surface low will develop over northeastern New Mexico Thursday afternoon shifting winds to the south. Although temperatures will be cooler Thursday, the southerly surface flow in the afternoon will warm highs to the 70s. "Cooler" temperatures and light winds will give us a break from fire weather conditions for Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend until a pattern change occurs next week which could bring precipitation to the region. Both Friday and Saturday will see low amplitude ridging move overhead from a strong upper ridge building over Baja California. Although this is not our typical late winter fire weather pattern, very dry fuels combined with dry and warm conditions will likely bring elevated fire weather conditions. On Friday, a short wave trough will be departing to the east in the morning sliding some mid level wind maximums with it. A pseudo- dryline like feature will develop bringing very dry conditions on the Caprock. Temperatures will also surge well above seasonal averages with values on the order of 15 degrees above these averages. Saturday and Sunday will see something similar at the surface with dry and westerly but relatively light winds on the Caprock. Temperatures will continue to warm Saturday and Sunday possibly reaching near record levels on Sunday. Precipitation looks to return next week with a cold front late Sunday through early Monday followed by a closed upper low translating over the Desert Southwest through mid-next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for this TAF period. After midnight, a cold front is expected to move through the region. Along with this, we may see increased northwesterly winds ~1000 ft AGL at 40-50 kts subsiding after sunrise.

Allen

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.