textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Warmer and breezy Tuesday with an elevated fire danger.

- Record heat possible later this week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Surface winds were had turned SSW late this evening following the welcome exit of a chilly surface high. These winds will become breezy by late morning (highest off the Caprock) as lee troughing under northwest flow subjects much of the area to a tighter pressure gradient. Ample sunshine, 15-20 mph downslope flow, and very low dewpoints all point to deep mixing that pushes highs into the low/mid 70s across the board. Winds will diminish after sunset and then veer westerly overnight helping lows stay about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Breezy winds subside for Wednesday and beyond, but in exchange for summer-like heat with the potential for record highs. Wednesday morning features a very modest cold front sliding south that should have little impact aside from turning winds northeasterly through the day. Highs will still make solid gains over Tuesday as the column warms in response to height rises preceding an expansive upper high over SOCAL.

This warming trend continues into Thursday aided by weak downslope winds. By Saturday, we appear to reach the peak of the heat wave, as 700 mb temperatures rise to 14-15C along the Texas and New Mexico border. Such values are rarely observed this early in the year anywhere in West Texas, so record highs appear very likely on Saturday before a cold front for Sunday brings some relief. The upper high is still forecast to flatten over the Sonoran Desert this weekend as the synoptic pattern becomes more zonal and progressive across the CONUS.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Breezy SW winds are expected from late-morning through evening. VFR will continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Elevated fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening across much of the forecast area. Southwest winds should increase to 15-20 mph by noon as relative humidity values fall into the teens, bottoming out near 10 percent from 4-5 PM. Winds will diminish by sunset ending the elevated fire threat. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon until 8 PM for all areas except the far western South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle where lighter winds are most likely.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.