textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Elevated fire danger possible Saturday afternoon for areas on the Caprock and western portions off the Caprock.

- A cold front early in the morning will give way to cooler temperatures and windy conditions Sunday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions expected everyday beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Saturday will be a hot and breezy one. To start off the day, a positively tilted upper trough over much of Texas will exit away from the region giving way to mostly zonal flow aloft. On the surface, the front that pushed through the region Friday evening has exited to the south of the CWA and winds have begun to decrease. Northeasterly surface flow will continue to diminish overnight through early Saturday morning before shifting to the south. An upper shortwave passing over the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee surface low over northern NM/southern CO resulting in winds shifting to the southwest to west and ramping up during the afternoon. Breezy winds with speeds up to 25 mph are expected across the Caprock with gusts up to 30 mph, especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Increasing thicknesses and west to southwesterly surface flow will aide in warming temperatures to the 90s by late Saturday afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures, breezy southwesterly winds, and RH values reaching as low as 8 percent will bring elevated fire danger across the Caprock. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas on the Caprock and western portions off the Caprock from 1 PM Saturday until 8 PM Saturday. Upper forcing from the passing shortwave and moderate mid-level moisture, showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Saturday afternoon through the evening. However, all storms are expected to remain to the east of the CWA where better forcing is expected. There is a vary small chance for an isolated storm over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains, however confidence is low. Winds will gradually weaken after sunset as the pressure gradient weakens. Tonight will be unseasonably warm with partly cloudy skies inhibiting radiational cooling. Lows will range from lower 50s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 60s across the Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a cool down for Sunday. The surface low mentioned in the short term discussion will shift to the east pulling a cold front southward through the region very late Saturday through early Sunday. Following the FROPA, breezy north to northeasterly winds will prevail through much of the day Sunday. CAA behind the front will cool temperatures considerably compared to Saturday with highs in the upper 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. Upper forcing from a passing broad, low amplitude trough and sufficient mid-level moisture with PWATS just under 1.25 inches will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Sunday morning for areas off the Caprock and will continue through the evening. The rest of the week will be a hot one. Upper ridging will build over western CONUS early next week and is expected to prevail through the rest of the work week. Height and thickness increases due to the upper ridging as well as south to southwesterly surface flow every afternoon will give way to unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures beginning Tuesday are expected to be in the 90s with some areas seeing triple digits. At the same time, subsidence from the upper ridging will keep precipitation chances near zero. Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible with the dry conditions, hot temperatures and moderate to breezy winds each afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Periods of IFR CIGs remain possible at KCDS over the next few hours, with lesser chances at KPVW and KLBB. Breezy SW winds this afternoon will diminish by evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.