textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- High temperatures cool off starting Friday with mostly 50s by this weekend into early next week.

- Showers and some storms for Saturday and Saturday night, then more rain chances by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Friday begins with a weak backdoor cold front moving into the region, bringing a shift to light E-NE winds and a cooler airmass. Even with clear skies, cooler easterly flow and increasing high clouds ahead of a southern stream trough should hold afternoon highs in the 60s. Dry weather hangs tight through the daytime.

Attention then turns to a southern stream disturbance on track to overspread our area Saturday. A lead trough tracking mostly to our south will still be close enough to deliver robust H5 height fall to the tune of 60 meters in 12 hours by early Saturday morning. This will spur moist isentropic ascent atop our shallow cool dome and along with top-down saturation the stage should be primed for showers before a gradual lull evolves during the day on Saturday south of a warm front forecast to migrate into our southernmost counties by the afternoon ahead of highs in the 60s. Farther north in the thicker cloud canopy, on/off showers and some storms are a good bet through the afternoon and especially in the evening as the second, and more potent, upper trough peels east from the Four Corners with a negative tilt. The left exit of a 120+ knot upper jet targets our N-NE zones Saturday night where 100% PoPs remain on track. PoPs elsewhere Saturday night are still not shabby at all as a Pacific front sweeps across the Caprock, before impinging on richer PWATs pushing 1" farther east, or about 200% of normal for this time of year. The progressive nature of this wave and swift storm motions should help in curbing heavy rainfall to localized areas.

Subsidence with aggressive dry slotting now looks to shove most/all precip chances quickly east of the Rolling Plains by the pre-dawn hours, but we'll keep some low chances for a compact and tightly- wound upper low poised to remain nearby until Sunday afternoon. As a weak surface low tracks southeast across the forecast area Sunday afternoon, a northerly cold front replaces it complete with brisk northerly winds and falling temps. This front is why highs on Sunday continue to span from the upper 40s in our Panhandle counties to the lower 60s in the southern Rolling Plains. NBM's highs were nudged lower across the north to give more credence to the last three ECM runs that remain colder than the GFS.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Chillier conditions unfold Sunday night into Monday as E-NE winds advect even colder temps our way complete with abundant stratus. This will keep highs only around 50 on Monday with not much improvement for Tuesday even as winds veer southerly yet struggle to rid us completely of stratus. Areas near the NM border would stand the best chance of milder highs and sunnier skies by Tuesday as drier SW winds evolve, before the next upper trough in SW flow spurs steadier SW winds areawide on Wednesday and milder temps. This next wave now looks too minor and a non-event for us as it tracks too far north. High temps look to rebound into the 60s by Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. MVFR CIGs will begin working into the terminals shortly after the end of this TAF cycle.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.