textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Continued cool Monday with rain chances expanding off the Caprock.

- Milder and drier on Tuesday until rain chances return Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening showed a line of deeper ascent in SW flow from about Dalhart, TX to Ruidoso, NM preceding an upper low now lifting out of the Four Corners. The eastern fringes of this ascent was already garnering a few showers and storms across our western 1/3 of the CWA late this evening and these should continue in an isolated fashion overnight on the Caprock.

We expect the brunt of showers and storms to favor eastern NM and the western panhandle through the pre-dawn hours Monday closer to the aforementioned trough axis. Thereafter, the jury may be reaching an agreement regarding additional rounds of convection farther south from the Permian Basin into the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. This latter potential hinges on a southern stream trough currently over northwestern Mexico that should continue moving northeast through the day, but how much ascent and instability accompany this are unclear. We'll keep a broad mention of PoPs through the early afternoon given our continued moist and unsettled southwest flow regime aloft, but PoPs were nudged higher from late afternoon into the evening as the upper wave approaches.

Similar to the bands of training precip and heavy rain in eastern NM Sunday, deep and mostly unidirectional shear loaded with PWATs up to 1.4" suggest some heavy rain will be in the cards late Monday, but this time favoring the eastern South Plains into the Rolling Plains nearest the mid-level vort max. Rain chances taper from SW-NE Monday night as the wave exits. High temps on Monday remain in the 60s and low 70s once again under considerable stratus, while lows Monday night remain mild given dewpoints in the mid 50s and low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Tuesday opens with widespread low stratus and maybe some fog that eventually scatters out with daytime mixing allowing highs to reach the 70s area wide. Despite muggy southerly winds both Tuesday and Wednesday, drier and more stable air aloft will thwart rain chances these days. These moist breezes may give rise to the dreaded sunrise- surprise stratus Wednesday morning ahead of clearing skies and even milder highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Aloft meanwhile, steady height rises unfold in SW flow through Wednesday ahead of the next storm system emanating from an active subtropical jet. Already moist low levels with dewpoints holding in the 50s will coincide with richening moisture aloft to result in rain chances from Thursday through Saturday morning, with the peak in these chances contingent on the timing of a southern stream trough. Ensembles currently favor Friday as the wettest day complete with some heavy rain potential.

No cold fronts are in our future until early November at the soonest, so enjoy the pleasant temperatures as we can certainly be talking cold and snow already in late October. In fact, fifty years ago this week our region saw its earliest fall snowstorm with 7.5" measured at Lubbock on the 28th and 29th!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Scattered MVFR clouds linger near KLBB/KPVW at the start of the period, but conditions should primarily be VFR through about 09-10z. After that time, ceilings should lower back to MVFR at KLBB/KPVW, and there is a chance for IFR ceilings by mid- to- late morning. Precip chances are tricky, with showers possible between 12z Mon-00z Tues. Some models are trending slower, so favored the afternoon window for the PROB30 showers group. Thunder chances are low, but not zero. At KCDS, MVFR ceilings are less certain, but there is some potential Monday PM. Winds remain out of the southeast.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.