textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Storms ending overnight on the Caprock, then a few storms possible Tuesday afternoon.

- Hotter Tuesday with Heat Advisory levels by Wednesday.

- Cooler Thursday and Friday with storm chances, before the heat rebuilds this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A compact and slowly-decaying MCS in northwest flow was making steady progress through the South Plains at 1030 PM. At its current pace, this system should exit our forecast area by 1 AM with no additional precip expected overnight.

Northwest flow aloft stays parked over the area for Tuesday, but changes will be afoot in the low and mid levels including much warmer 850-700 mb temps advecting our way on southwesterly winds. This would normally suggest greater capping/CIN concerns for convection, but various model soundings exhibit strong heating (highs returning to the lower 90s) allowing for minimal CIN by peak heating. A diffuse dryline bisecting the CWA from SW-NE may also aid in pockets of greater vertical ascent, so have kept a slight chance thunder mention, although coverage looks very spotty so PoPs were lowered to 10 percent. Background ascent is less than Monday night, so any storms should struggle to carry on much beyond sunset.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Even hotter air spills our way for Wednesday to the tune of 36C at 850 mb and 20C at 700 mb. A Heat Advisory will likely be issued in later forecasts given widespread high temperatures of 105-109F, highest off the Caprock. The dryline meanwhile is forecast to mix off the Caprock but remain quiet under much warmer mid-level temps. As the dryline retreats Thursday evening, a weak surface low is forecast to move south from the western TX Panhandle ahead of a cold front that reaches our area sometime Thursday morning. The magnitude of CAA with this FROPA raises concern for much breezier/windier conditions on Thursday than the NBM indicates, although this remains in question due to sizable FROPA timing differences among the model spectrum. Storm chances are generally not as great with these stronger northerly fronts even as richer dewpoints from KS and OK advect our way, but if this front can slow and hold over our area longer then this story could change. Even so, mid and upper-level ridging continuing to build over the region may put a lid on deeper convection for Thursday and Thursday night. What low-level moisture is trapped under this ridge is replaced by drier and hotter SSW flow for Friday through the weekend under an increasingly zonal pattern. Another cold front with rain chances may sneak into the picture by Sunday or Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have now exited all terminals as of early this morning with no precipitation expected for the remainder of the TAF cycle. As a result, brief MVFR CIGs have returned back to VFR conditions where they are expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a very small chance that low stratus will try to creep into KCDS late this morning, however we expect this cloud deck to remain east of the terminal at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.