textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area this afternoon through early Sunday morning.

- Cloudy and cool weather to continue through Tuesday, with some areas of nocturnal/morning fog possible.

- Milder weather by midweek ahead of more rain chances by late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

At 1230p Saturday, a batch of light rain showers is exiting the Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle while patches of light fog and drizzle have developed across most of the remainder of the forecast area. The exception is found across the southwest South Plains where clearing is moving in from the west. Temperatures across the much of the area have remained stuck in the 40s while they've climbed above 60s where the clearing has worked in.

Aloft, a negatively-tilted upper trough is pivoting across the region. A vigorous upper-level jet in excess of 100 kts is approaching the base of the trough over NM and this will help the trough close off over the panhandles this evening. Strong ascent associated with the left exit region of the jet will be passing over the Texas South Plains and will provide the impetus for a couple rounds of thunderstorm activity progressing east from NM across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Despite the cool surface temps, steep lapse rates aloft will be able to support about 500-100 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE along a northwest to southeast axis from the far southwest Texas Panhandle through the central and southern South Plains into the southern Rolling Plains. Surface-based CAPE/destabilization will likely be confined to the southwest South Plains where we've seen the clearing. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts will be more than capable of supporting rotating updrafts, the limit to their strength and longevity will be the modest instability. A threat of large hail up to quarter-size with the strongest cells seems reasonable. This threat should gradually wane as the evening wears on as the jet shifts southeast, but some locally rainfall is possible as the storms move into the Rolling Plains where we expect widespread coverage and the potential for some training of cells. Some rain amounts in excess of 2 inches wouldn't be surprising in the southern Rolling Plains.

Some drier air may temporarily move into the western and southern South Plains overnight, partially clearing out any fog or stratus, but then we'll seethe stratus move back in early Sunday morning as we get the wraparound northerly flow around the upper low as it moves into western Okla and nrn Texas. The threat of rain showers will likely continue most of the morning across the Rolling Plains, with fog and patchy drizzle elsewhere. Skies will remain cloudy all day Sunday and likely Monday as well.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

We should see the coolest temperatures late Sunday night into Monday morning with lows near freezing from the central South Plains to the north and west. It is not out of the question that Lubbock could receive its first (light) freeze Monday morning. High temperatures should remain stuck in the 40s and 50s both Sunday and Monday. And it looks likely that Tuesday will also start out cloudy, and perhaps foggy as a WAA pattern sets up. It is uncertain what degree of clearing we might see by late Tuesday and highs may remain once again mired in the 50s if we don't break out.

By Wednesday, a fast-moving shortwave will be approaching from the west. Increasingly swift and deep S-SW flow should allow the area to finally break free of the clouds and experience a modest warming trend back into the 60s. The shortwave will minor out as it moves across the southern Rockies and it doesn't appear that it will support any rain chances for our area. However, a much larger trough will be moving into the western states mid to late week and this will maintain southwest flow aloft and south- southeasterly low-level flow at the surface over West Texas which could bring some daily bouts of low stratus and/or fog as low- level moisture moves back in. As the upper low moves toward the 4-corners region Friday we may see our rain chances increase, however uncertainty in the track of the system increases greatly heading into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Widespread IFR-LIFR ceilings will continue through Sunday with on/off SHRA and some TS, initially at LBB and PVW until 04Z or so, then focusing at CDS through Sunday morning. Dense fog should improve on the back side of TS currently approaching LBB and PVW, before resuming around midnight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TXZ028-029-034-035.