textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible today and Thursday, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle.

- Hot temperatures continue into early next week, with near triple-digits possible Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The weak cold front is stalled across the northern Texas Panhandle. The front may make it as far south as the southern Texas Panhandle by sunrise, but it is not expected to move any further south before it is eroded. The upper ridge will be centered overhead today and will help to warm highs into the mid/upper 90s this afternoon. The axis of the upper ridge will move to our east after sunset. Models have been somewhat persistent with developing convection across our northern zones late this afternoon into the early evening as the upper ridge pushes eastward and a weakness develops along the western edge of the ridge. This will also be the location of a surface low and would provide marginal surface convergence. While widespread convection is not expected, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Organized severe convection is also not expected, but a 60 mph gust or two cannot be ruled out. Convection will not last long beyond sunset as surface heating is lost. The rest of the night will be breezy thanks to the proximity of the surface low, and this in turn will help keep Thursday morning lows in the low to upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The upper ridge will be east of the FA by Thursday with upper flow being mostly zonal to slightly southwesterly through Friday. More widespread, but still scattered at best, convection will be possible Friday afternoon as a dryline pushes across the region just as an embedded upper shortwave trough moves overhead. Convection would likely be elevated at best as hot temps, low to mid 100s, and low dewpoints are expected. This would be prime conditions for virga. Upper troughing across the western CONUS will amplify this weekend into early next week and will keep upper flow out of the southwest. While chances are low, there is potential for isolated afternoon convection each day across the Rolling Plains if enough surface moisture can be attained.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle. A brief period of gusty winds are expected by late afternoon, with speeds around 10-15Kts at all terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.