textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop east of the I-27 corridor this early afternoon and last into the evening.

- Some storms may be severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards with storms.

- Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Caprock during the predawn hours Monday, with dry and hotter weather Monday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a large-scale cyclone was rotating over the James Bay, with a shortwave trough embedded within the belt of cyclonic flow that was digging southeastward into the southern Great Plains. Farther west, a subtropical ridge continues to amplify over the Mojave Desert and will shift into the Desert Southwest by late tonight. Moist, isentropic ascent persists over W TX, with mid-level and highly elevated convection ongoing (in the form of virga) that was advecting eastward within the right-entrance region of a 250 mb jet streak analyzed near 50 kt as the base of the trough digs into the southern Great Plains. A band of elevated showers was gradually beginning to organize along the 700 mb cold front across eastern NM, which will continue to move east throughout the remainder of the afternoon as the vorticity lobe emerges over W TX.

At the surface, the synoptic cold front was drawn along a line from HOB-LUV-JTN and into the TX Big Country, with blustery, northerly winds between 20-30 mph following the front. CAA post-FROPA was moderate, with temperatures falling 5-7 deg/3 hr per recent WTM data. Strong, low-level convergence exists along the leading edge of the front, evident by the saturation of the top of the post-frontal airmass and return flow immediately south of the front where warm theta-e advection is ongoing. The cold front will move south of the CWA by mid-afternoon, resulting in a narrow, spatiotemporal window for surface-based thunderstorms in the southern Rolling Plains while elevated (non-surface-based) storms occur elsewhere to the east of the I-27/HWY-87 corridors.

Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop east of the I-27 corridor this early afternoon as the base of the trough and the 700 mb cold front arrives. The bands and/or clusters of storms accompanying the front will remain elevated, with an easterly storm motion vector at around 40 kt. However, despite LFCs being rooted above the statically stable, post-frontal airmass, moderate thermal instability aloft, characterized by MUCAPE values near 2,000 J/kg, and the enhanced gradient flow at the surface may warrant isolated instances of severe-caliber gusts with the fast-moving cells. Hail around quarter size will be the primary hazard otherwise.

Across the southern Rolling Plains, supercell wind profiles will exist even to the north of the leading edge of the cold front, with the potential for one or two right-moving supercells to develop and propagate southeastward into the Permian Basin and the TX Big Country. This potential will be short-lived, with right-moving supercells posing a risk for severe-caliber winds and hail in excess of 60 mph and up to two inches in diameter, respectively. Due to the fast storm motions associated with the elevated bands/clusters of convection, and the narrow window for semi-discrete propagation in the southern Rolling Plains, the flash flooding risk for this afternoon and evening is low. Storm chances will wane after sunset as the base of the trough ejects southeast of the CWA.

Post-frontal winds will diminish after dark, with a weak surface high settling into W TX during the nighttime hours. Cloud debris will gradually erode tonight, and the combination of a clearing sky and light winds within an already-moistened airmass will yield the potential for the development of fog during the predawn hours Monday, primarily on the Caprock. Fog has been added into the forecast between 11/09-15Z for the Caprock, and some of the fog may be dense, with visibility falling to one-quarter mile or less. Fog that does develop will begin to mix out shortly after sunrise Monday, as full insolation will occur as the surface high rotates eastward into central N TX. Highs will rebound into the lower 80s due to relatively shallow mixing of the boundary-layer, with winds remaining light area-wide Monday.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Progressive flow over the 49th parallel will cause the large-scale over the James Bay to transition into an open trough and eject into the North Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday. This will allow the subtropical ridge over the Desert Southwest to shift eastward into the Great Plains by mid-week, with hot temperatures forecast Tuesday and beyond as geopotential heights rise to near 590 dam. The ridge is forecast to meander over the region through the end of the upcoming week, and this should cause the dryline to maintain a position within or near proximity to the Rolling Plains. Return flow will be present area-wide for most of the week, with elevated fire weather conditions forecast to return by Thursday as surface winds strengthen in response to large-scale pressure falls across the Great Plains due to a series of shortwave troughs emerging over the central Rocky Mountains by the end of the week. Despite persistent ridging, any sort of shortwave impulse or trough that translates through a subtropical ridge this time of year bears watching, especially with a dryline/surface trough being present in the boundary-layer. That said, the official forecast remains dry with this prognostication, but low storm chances may return mid-week.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to continue at LBB and PVW through early evening. While CIGs will lift slightly overnight, there is a potential for reduced VIS at PVW and LBB. There is uncertainty with how low VIS will drop and has been kept VFR for the time being. Convection will be possible at CDS through early evening. As coverage will be scattered, VCTS will prevail. All sites are expected to increase to VFR after 15Z Monday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.