textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Warming up through Friday, but still near or just below seasonal standards.

- Much cooler Saturday ahead of highs in the 50s and 60s next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The forecast area will remain positioned between two systems as the upper level trough continues to dominate over the eastern half of CONUS, while an upper level ridge amplifies over the western CONUS. As a result, west-northwest flow aloft is expected to prevail with uneventful weather on tap for the Caprock regions through the period. Northerly winds will continue to increase through the afternoon as a surface low, analyzed just east of the FA, centered just west of the DFW metro continues to translate eastward throughout the day. Mid-level height falls look to become decently packed, increasing speeds across the area around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH possible. Despite northerly flow, increased thickness values along with clear skies will aid in the warm up of temperatures into the 50s this afternoon. Winds will calm before sunset as the surface trough shifts east, which combined with clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop into the 20s. This is much cooler from what we saw last night thanks to max radiational cooling. Although the warm up of temperatures should work to melt and dry up any remaining snowpack, there will remain the potential for patchy black ice again across areas that may not see as much drying this afternoon. Friday, expect similar conditions to prevail as temperatures climb back into the 50s with clear skies and light winds.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Friday evening opens with a backdoor front on our doorstep that proceeds to sweep through the region overnight. A chilly 1048 mb surface high in Kansas will supply us with light, but moist ENE upslope winds that generate a stratus field that may loiter through much of the day on Saturday serving to keep highs colder than presently forecast. For now this layer appears thin enough that when subjected to lower dewpoints advecting south along with modest daytime mixing, we should see skies clear throughout the afternoon thereby helping highs reach into the mid/upper 30s. Upslope winds are progged to veer southerly through the afternoon on the Caprock resulting in the mildest highs near the NM border. Although unlikely at this time, it's not out of the question that some spots see a bout of freezing drizzle early Saturday morning before the stratus deck ascends and thins out.

As the chilly surface ridge peels away Saturday night, much milder thicknesses take charge ahead of a flattening upper ridge in NW flow. The emergence of a rex block along the Pacific Coast by Tuesday will throw us back into a more northerly flow regime complete with a weak FROPA by late Tuesday. The earlier precip chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday were dried out on the latest NBM which syncs well with the latest deterministic and ensemble runs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty northerly winds will continue through sunset, before diminishing thereafter.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.