textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Thunderstorms are possible for much of the area today and Thursday evenings.

- Relatively cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday, before heating up again this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Lingering thunderstorms across the far southern Panhandle will continue to taper off into the overnight hours. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy helping to moderate lows, generally falling into the 70s. The stubborn upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will begin to gradually shift westward on Wednesday. Much of the daytime hours into the early evening will see fair skies and hot temperatures, although with height falls given the aforementioned western progression of the low and light easterly winds, temperatures will (finally) fall below heat advisory criteria across the area. That said, highs will still climb into the upper 90s to low triple-digits.

A potent shortwave will move towards the TX/NM border by evening and we will see the usual thunderstorm setup with low level ESE flow and northwest flow at 500 mb. Although shear is not overly impressive, other severe parameters are favorable, especially by the mid-to-late evening time frame. Specifically DCAPE values on forecast soundings are showing near 1500 J/kg and CAMs generally indicate a bowing structure to the storms which would both indicate the potential for strong wind gusts. Large hail and heavy downpours would also be a threat. These should begin to weaken around midnight as they approach the I-27 corridor, however a few non-severe storms could linger into the early Thursday morning hours.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The upper ridge will not move much during the day Thursday. Light ESE winds will continue behind a "cold" front which will bring some welcome relief to our recent stretch of triple-digit temperatures. High will top out in the low-to-mid 90s across the area. Another slightly weaker shortwave will move through during the evening hours yielding generally the same setup as the previous evening. Forcing will not be as strong and 500 mb winds will be slightly more due northerly than northwesterly, however once again DCAPE between 1000- 1500 J/kg and PWATs approaching 1.5 inches in spots will bring about the same strong wind and heavy downpour threats throughout much of the forecast area. These should again taper off around midnight. The ridge will slightly weaken, but move back eastward Friday into the weekend, thereby inhibiting any additional monsoonal moisture over our area. PoPs look be limited to none from then on into next week and temperatures will gradually increase again to at or near triple-digits.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Light east winds and VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day and through much of the evening at all TAF sites. A broken line of TSRA will then approach the terminals from the west after sunset. Confidence in precise timing of convection is uncertain, but the best probability of impacts is near KLBB/KPVW and points west. Any TS this evening will be capable of very strong downburst wind gusts along with some light visibility restrictions from BLDU.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.