textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions likely Thursday and Friday afternoons.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday into early Saturday morning.

- A strong cold front early Saturday will bring cooler temperatures through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Quiet weather is expected for the rest of today with the region in the wake of a departing short wave trough and subsidence aloft. The weather pattern will turn more active on Friday into Saturday with two distinct periods of precipitation potential. The first will occur during the daytime hours on Friday. This weather will stem from a closed low currently moving over the Intermountain West.

An upper low will emerge onto the Central Plains Friday morning and lift into the Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. Lift from this system will be displaced well north of West Texas on Friday. However, a secondary weaker upper level jet streak on the order of 60-70kt positioned over New Mexico Friday morning will bring large scale ascent to the area. At the same time, mid level moisture will be advecting overhead. Low level moisture associated with a dryline will also be surging northward through the overnight hours tonight into Friday in response to the upper level low. Low level forcing is expected to be weak out ahead of the dryline but with large scale ascent and increasing moisture, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting as early as mid-morning on Friday. This will include high based shower activity on the dry side of the dryline. Most robust convection may develop late in the afternoon along this surface feature. Similar to Friday morning, low level forcing will continue to be weak with the surface low located over Iowa on Friday afternoon leading to a broad warm sector out ahead of the low. Low level winds within this warm sector will back more to the south/southeast. Despite the mid-level cloud cover, temperatures are expected to push into the upper 70s off the caprock. Mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km will lead to mixed layer instability values somewhere around 1500-2000 J/kg. However, these cooler surface temperatures may keep the atmosphere capped from parcels originating in the boundary layer. Elevated severe convection may be the favored mode on Friday afternoon for areas off the caprock. Therefore, an isolated supercell or two will be possible during the afternoon hours given sufficient deep layer shear. Convection would also favor large hail and damaging winds with fairly straight hodographs and little curvature in the lowest levels.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The second period of potential precipitation will occur overnight Friday into early Saturday morning with the passage of a strong cold front. Models generally agree on developing convection along the front favoring areas off the caprock early Saturday morning. The primary threat from this activity, however, will be heavy rainfall and flooding. Close to the front, the low level flow will be nearly parallel to the mean flow which may lead to training convection. Furthermore, moisture values will be abnormally high with forecasted precipitable water values around the 99th percentile. The fast motion of the front will allow storms to clear out fairly quickly but will be possible of bringing intense rainfall rates. Much cooler conditions are then expected from Saturday through at least early next week due to persistent upslope easterly low level flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR. Breezy winds will continue to transition towards the south throughout the afternoon, with winds diminishing slightly after dark at KLBB and KPVW. Winds will remain breezy at KCDS. TSTMs will be possible Friday afternoon at all terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.