textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 505 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Mild and dry until cool and wetter conditions this weekend.

- Cool weather lingers into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Nary a cloud was found this night downstream of an upper ridge poised to shift over the area by early Friday morning. The surface reflection of this ridge was already draped over the forecast area and as one mesohigh shifts south of us after daybreak, we expect winds to shift westerly and remain light. Full sun and some drying of the lower column should aid in warmer highs via deeper mixing heights. NBM ran too cool with highs on Wednesday and its latest offering still appears to be suffering from the same cold, so opted for some milder 75th percentile values that fit better with the ECX and MAV. Even with light winds carrying into Friday morning and RHs rebounding into the 90-100 percent range, fog prospects are low overall.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Friday opens with a backdoor front exiting Oklahoma ahead of cool, but light E-NE winds. NBM looks to have a good handle regarding this earlier and cooler push as shown by the HRRR, so its highs in the 60s across the board fit well despite minimal clouds under an upper ridge. The upper ridge departs Friday night ahead of a lead southern stream trough tracking largely along and south of I-20 on Saturday. This presents us with some top-down moistening opportunities on Saturday, before the more impactful shortwave trough arrives Saturday afternoon and evening with deeper ascent, thicker saturation, and modest CAPE for some storms. This lift combined with PWATs of 0.75" to 0.9" should allow for some soaking rainfall, but flooding concerns are low as the forcing remains progressive.

Mid-level subsidence unfolds for Sunday on the back side of a weak surface and upper low which presents us with a tricky scenario for clouds and temps. Highs could run the gamut should we see enough dry slotting and clearing skies in the south contrasted with another backdoor front farther north which has the potential for highs only in the upper 40s. NBM still favors this chilly dome overspreading the entire area Sunday evening with highs on Monday barely cracking 50 degrees thanks to cool and moist upslope flow laden with stratus and maybe some drizzle. These cool winds veer south for Tuesday, yet this alone is unlikely to rid us of low clouds and below-normal highs in the lower 50s. Deeper southwest flow aloft then delivers a shortwave trough for either late Tuesday or Wednesday complete with some shower chances and slightly milder temps.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions, clear skies, and light westerly winds continue through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.