textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly over the far southern Panhandle.

- Better chances for showers and storms arrive over most of the region Thursday through Friday, with slight chances continuing over the weekend.

- Mild temperatures persist through the rest of the work week with warmer than average highs expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Widely isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Some showers that have developed were along a surface boundary extending from a surface low currently over the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Additional activity is possible this evening through the overnight as a shortwave trough moves over the Texas Panhandle. This will help push mountain induced convection across New Mexico and Colorado into the Panhandle. Most activity should be confined to the Panhandle, though a storm or two across the northern South Plains and northern Rolling Plains cannot be ruled out. The main threat from any storms that move into the FA will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Convection should push into Oklahoma by sunrise Thursday with a cold front following behind. Models are mixed on how far south the front will push by Thursday afternoon, though many models keep the front just north of the FA. The NAM does bring the front southward into at least our northern zones by the afternoon and does not appear to be far fetched. Despite the front, Thursday's highs will likely still be in the low to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Upper ridging is progged to move over the region by Friday and will allow highs to warm slightly, back into the mid 80s to low 90s. A series of shortwave upper troughs/weaknesses in the upper ridge will allow for low-end storm chances this weekend. Most of the storms will like form to our west across the higher terrain of New Mexico and push eastward. Upper flow will be relatively weak and will keep storm motion slow and will keep the best storm chances across our western zones. The upper high will build across the western CONUS by the late weekend into early next week. Upper flow will become more northwesterly over the FA during this time as an upper shortwave/low pushes southward from Saskatchewan into the Central Plains. Unfortunately the current progged pattern would keep most convective chances to our east, over Oklahoma, where the best upper diffluence is located. The good news is a cold front should push into the region providing us with more fall-like weather.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible at KPVW and KCDS this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to warrant inclusion into the TAFs.

Garber

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.