textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue each afternoon Tuesday through the weekend.

- Generally dry conditions through mid-week, with isolated storms possible across the far southern Texas Panhandle, with better chances this weekend.

- Elevated fire weather concerns return by mid to late week as temperatures increase and breezy conditions return.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Generally quiet weather is expected across the Caprock regions tonight through Tuesday night. Water Vapor imagery late this evening depicts dry air filtering into the region via northwest flow as the upper level ridge continues to dominate across the Desert Southwest, while the upper shortwave that brought yesterdays severe weather continues to track east through the Gulf Coast states. Throughout the day Wednesday we expect the upper ridge to translate east, closer to the West Texas region, with the center of the upper high settling over central NM Tuesday afternoon. The uptick in heights and thickness values across the area, combined with southwest surface winds provided by the surface cyclone digging through the lee of the Rockies will allow for a warm day across the region. In fact, 850mb temperatures around 25C to 30C suggest highs will be nearly 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we saw today. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s across areas east of I-27 while west of the interstate could see highs from the mid to upper 90s, with potentially some locations reaching the triple digits.

Although the forecast will remain generally dry, a few CAMS like the FV3 and NAMNEST highlight the potential for few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon, as weak perturbations embedded with northwest flow aloft overspread a destabilizing environment as solar insolation allows convective Ts to be reached by early afternoon. Steep lapse rates around 7 to 8 C/km and modest instability with forecast soundings showing MUCAPE values near 1000-1200 J/kg would be sufficient enough for an isolated high based thunderstorm or two. Should storms develop coverage will be limited as subsidence beneath the ridge and lack of low to mid level moisture work against the overall convective potential. Main threats that would be posed with afternoon storms Tuesday would be the risk for strong to marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph, as forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed boundary layer and a notably dry-sub cloud layer, highlighting the potential for high-based convection with DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Given this, an isolated thunderstorm mention was added to the forecast grids across the far SW Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. By the late evening, expect clear skies and dry conditions to continue with mild overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

An omega blocking pattern will set up across the CONUS to begin the extended forecast package with an upper ridge amplified from the Desert Southwest into the High Plains, while a pair of surface troughs translate through the PacNW and Upper Midwest mid-week. The upper ridge will slowly translate east throughout the week, influencing the continuation of warm weather with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon through the weekend as we see a gradual increases in height and thickness values. Despite the bottoming out of the ridge late week, Friday looks to bring the hottest temperatures of the week, thanks to breezy and warm westerly surface flow from the surface to H7 level. Highs are forecasted in the mid 90s to triple digits, while some locations off the Caprock could see highs around 105 degrees which remains just shy of heat advisory criteria. However there is light at the end of the tunnel, with deterministic guidance suggesting a slight cool down early next week as an upper low tracks through the Canadian Provinces and swings a FROPA through the area. However, it is too early to dive into any specifics on timing and location of the front.

The forecast looks to remain generally dry mid to late week, thanks to subsidence at the surface. However, there is a small chance for precipitation across far southern Texas Panhandle both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, that is if any moisture trapped beneath the ridge can be tapped into play by the subtle perturbations tracking down the eastern side of the ridge. As we turn to the weekend, there looks to be a better shot for precipitation, primarily off the Caprock Saturday and Sunday as flow aloft becomes zonal as an upper trough develops to our west and we seen an uptick in moisture.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR and light winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.