textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening near the TX/NM state line, increasing in coverage later tonight.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the region on Tuesday, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances decrease Wednesday into Thursday before increasing again Friday into the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Water vapor imagery at midday Monday highlights a deepening negatively tilted mid/upper trough axis over AZ, which will eventually become the primary driver of increasing shower and storm chances on Tuesday as it moves eastward over the next 24 hours. First though, mainly quiet weather will continue through the rest of today as much of the region remains dry beneath weak flow aloft and some modest subsidence on the back side of a remnant upper low over central TX. Nevertheless, diurnal heating combined with continued moist upslope surface flow should still be sufficient to generate a few isolated weak storms this afternoon near the TX/NM state line, similar to the past couple of days. After sunset, coverage of showers and storms will increase near the state line as the midlevel trough axis inches closer and flow aloft turns more southwesterly, but most of the forecast area will remain dry until the daytime hours on Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous showers thunderstorms are expected to spread over much of the Caprock on Tuesday morning as large scale forcing for ascent increases courtesy of a well-defined upper shortwave/vort max and increasing midlevel warm advection. Forecast soundings on Tuesday morning depict elongated instability profiles along with weak bulk shear magnitudes, which points towards more of a heavy rain threat rather than organized severe storms, though a strong or marginally severe storm will still be possible Tuesday morning especially over southern portions of the South Plains. Forecast confidence decreases heading into Tuesday afternoon, with plenty of uncertainty regarding afternoon and evening convective coverage given potential stabilizing effects of early day activity. Short term models generally fall into two camps for Tuesday afternoon: either a consolidation of morning convection into a loosely organized (and possibly severe) linear segment and corresponding increase in convective coverage, or a general decrease in convective coverage owing to cool surface temperatures. At the moment, both scenarios appear equally likely. But, given the strong forcing for ascent still present in the afternoon combined with steepening midlevel lapse rates, we currently expect relatively widespread convection to continue Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. This will be concentrated over the southern half of the forecast area and especially over the Rolling Plains with lesser coverage farther north and west. Heavy rain will again be the primary hazard, with the highest potential for localized flash flooding focused over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains where latest HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities generally have about a 40-50% chance of rainfall totals exceeding one inch along and south of a line from Morton to Lubbock to Guthrie. It should be noted though that precise rainfall amounts will heavily depend on convective coverage with much smaller totals possible if convection is more limited than currently expected.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

By Wednesday, the upper air pattern will be defined by a broad and deep upper level cutoff low over CA, with the remnants of Tuesday's mid/upper trough remaining in place in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle. Relatively cool temperatures will therefore persist aloft which will likely result in a round of isolated to scattered convection on Wednesday afternoon given a continuation of moist upslope low level flow. These chances will be highest over the SE TX Panhandle and adjacent Rolling Plains, but with severe potential remaining quite low given very weak flow through the depth of the atmosphere. Thursday is expected to be mainly dry across the region as transient ridging builds overhead downstream of the closed low to our west. This low is then progged to open and lift northeastward Friday and beyond which will in turn bring another period of unsettled southwest flow aloft to our region. Ensemble consensus favors daily chances for thunderstorms Friday through the weekend with decent probabilities for additional measurable rainfall. Details are uncertain at this lead time, but the general pattern could support severe storms any of these days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around KPVW and KLBB early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the two terminals, however the exact impact is uncertain at the moment. Can expect strong wind gusts from thunderstorms that develop near either terminal. The thunderstorms are expected to expand east later in the afternoon near KCDS. However, will most likely impact the terminal after this TAF period. Otherwise, light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue the rest of today through Tuesday afternoon. A few lower clouds will fill in over all three terminals Tuesday morning, however expect ceilings to remain VFR.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.