textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least Tuesday.

- Daily precipitation chances return beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Benign weather conditions persist through the weekend. Mild SW flow aloft currently, as west TX finds itself situated between upper troughing over western North America and ridging over the upper Midwest (beneath which the remnants of Isaias are located over the SE CONUS). The continued departure of Isaias and a gradually building upper ridge over east TX will lead to subtle sfc pressure rises over the Gulf Coast, which combined with sfc pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will keep southerly flow, breezy at times, in place through Sunday. Peak gusts may approach 30 mph late Sun afternoon. This will continue the warming trend, boosting temps a few degrees relative to today, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Much of the previous discussion for the long term period remains on track, with the focus being a mid-week system returning rain/storm chances to the region, followed by increasingly poor model agreement late in the work week reducing forecast confidence. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel (currently west of Baja California) will interact with a digging upper trough over the western US, resulting in a deep, closed upper low over NV by Mon night. In advance of this system, mid-level height rises across TX will peak early next week, supporting above normal temps Mon-Tues (highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s).

The gradual approach of the upper trough will lead to increasing SW flow and the return of rain/storm chances by Tues afternoon (continuing through Wed). As noted yesterday, precipitable water (PWAT) values will be unseasonably high, around the 95th percentile of climatology. Cloud layer winds around 30 kts (out of the southwest) suggest appreciable forward motion for any storms, but there are some indications that backbuilding elements would have storm motions closer to 10 kts (more supportive of localized flooding potential). Given this, there is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Tues-Wed. There may also be a risk of localized, sporadic severe wind gusts as moderate instability (1500- 2000 J/kg), marginal wind shear (20-30 kts), and the high PWATs support water-loaded downdrafts.

Unfortunately, guidance still diverges considerably during the latter half of the work week, resulting in poor forecast confidence. The ECMWF keeps the upper trough anchored over the SW CONUS, which would keep continued rain chances in place area-wide for Thurs-Fri. The GFS quickly ejects the trough to the east, merging it with another system over the upper Midwest and sending a cold front through our FA. Relative to previous ensemble guidance, the probability of 1" of rain through Fri AM has increased slightly, to 20-40% on the Caprock and 40-50% off the Caprock, but again, forecast confidence is lower than usual for this range of the forecast. The ensemble guidance also continues to exhibit a cooling trend after Tues, with the NBM favoring highs in the 60s and 70s by Fri-Sat. This range of the forecast will remain subject to change until model come into better agreement. For what its worth, both of the deterministic, AI-based versions of the GFS/ECMWF, which have exhibited skill for medium-range synoptic pattern verification, favor the GFS solution (faster evolution of the trough, lower precip chances locally beyond Thurs, and cooler post-frontal air in place by Fri).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS will make a run at the area from the south early Sunday morning but are expected to remain well south of the terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.