textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through at least Tuesday before gradually cooling through the rest of the week.

- Daily precipitation chances return beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Upper winds remain out of the southwest as the FA remains tot he west of an upper ridge and to the east of longwave troughing. Today will be the breeziest day of the forecast (as of current) as the surface pressure gradient associated with the surface lee trough tightens slightly ahead of an upper low currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will help to allow Sunday to also be one of the warmest days in the forecast, second only to Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A wet forecast appears to still be on track for mid week. The aforementioned upper low will eventually track to the southeast and be positioned over the Four Corners by Wednesday with the subtropical ridge remaining in place over the southeastern CONUS. Tropical moisture from both the Gulf and Pacific will allow for PWATs to increase to an average of 1.5 inches by Tuesday. An increase in upper diffluence with the approaching upper low should be enough to at least scattered storm development. The amount of convective coverage will depend on the ultimate track of the upper low. The GFS continues to be more progressive than the ECMWF and, while it does provide the FA with rainfall, is not as generous as the ECMWF and is much quicker to dryslot the region. The upper low, per the GFS, will phase with the main flow by Thursday and will be followed by the strongest cold front of the season. The ECMWF is sticking to its original story of having the upper low stall for a very short period before retrograding and being part of a blocking pattern. This would be more favorable for more days of rainfall as well as heavier rainfall, but the main story line has yet to be fully convincing. While a cold front does move into the FA ahead of the upper low, the building upper ridge into Canada would prevent much in the way of strong CAA and would instead push a highly modified airmass into the FA as opposed to the GFS's quasi- meridional upper flow.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

South-southwesterly winds will increase by late morning at all sites, potentially gusting to 25 kts before slightly diminishing in the evening. VFR will persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.