textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Dry and generally warm conditions are expected through the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A weak upper trough moving over the Rockies will lead to the development of a ~1011 mb surface low over northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. This will bring breezy SW winds across the area and combined with generally zonal flow aloft and abundant sunshine will lead to well above average temperatures today with highs in the upper 60s with few sites off the Caprock likely to make it into the 70s. The aforementioned trough will drive a surface cold front from northwest to southeast across the area this evening. Winds will quickly shift and increase in magnitude from southwest to northerly over the course of a few hours. Sustained winds near 15 mph overnight will moderate low temperatures, ranging from the upper 20s across the far SW Panhandle to the upper 30s off the Caprock. Winds will diminish Tuesday and turn more northeasterly. Overall cold advection will not be very strong and highs will only drop about 5-8 degrees from today and remain above average, mostly in the low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A second, stronger upper trough will push through the area on Wednesday bringing another surface cold front along with it. More potent upper forcing around the trough axis should lead to somewhat stronger northerlies than Tuesday, sustained near 20 mph and potentially gusting near 30 mph. Again, the associated cooler airmass will be nothing like last week and highs will generally remain in the mid 50s. Upper high pressure over the Intermountain West along with another trough moving onshore over southern California will displace the aforementioned first trough. WSW flow during the day will help to allow for significantly above average temperatures, with widespread 70s appearing more likely Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions are expected through much of the forecast period, however both GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles indicate an upper low becoming cutoff and moving over the Desert Southwest on Sunday. Should this all come to fruition and moisture parameters are favorable enough, we would actually see thunderstorm potential off the Caprock Sunday afternoon/evening. Obviously things could significantly change before then and it remains too early to determine anything specific.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Southwesterly breezes will continue through the rest of this evening before a cold front brings a shift to strong northerly winds near or just after 06z. North winds will remain strong overnight with gusts near 30 kt, then gradually weaken by Tuesday afternoon. VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.