textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Hot, dry, and breezy conditions expected Christmas day with record breaking warmth expected. - Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon across the far southwestern and central TX Panhandle.

- Unseasonably warm through Saturday, cooling down to start next week with the potential for wintry precipitation Sunday night into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Similar to last night, the northward expansion of low-level moisture from the Big Country into the Caprock region will result in rising dewpoints across the FA. Dewpoints progged in the upper 50s and 60s suggest the potential for at least some patchy fog across our most southern row of counties, with a few localized dense patches not completely out of the question. Visibilities should remain above 1/4 SM so will opt out of any dense fog headlines. In classic West Texas fashion, Christmas Day will not feel much like a cold winters day, instead it will feel like a warm spring day as anomalously warm temperatures continue beneath a persistent upper level ridge. Despite the ridge axis shifting slightly east, in response to an upper level shortwave moving onshore the PacNW, thickness along with height values will remain near stationary to previous day. Meanwhile at the surface, southwest winds will prevail while becoming breezy as a lee trough over southeastern CO dives into the northern Texas Panhandle. As a result, we will begin to see the pressure gradient tighten across the region which will allow for wind speeds to increase around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. The west-southwesterly component to the winds from the surface to mid- levels will work to transport WAA into the region and with 850 mb temperatures around 20C, we can expect afternoon highs to climb to record breaking territory in the upper 70s to upper 80s. As mentioned, previous records at KLBB (76 degrees in 1955) and KCDS (77 degrees in 1971) look to be smashed with the forecasted high at KLBB of 83 degrees and 86 degrees at KCDS.

Although quiet weather is expected, there remains the threat of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this afternoon, primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Across the aforementioned area, wind maxima's will be set up, allowing for the strongest winds around 20 to 25 mph to persist. Which combined with the record breaking warmth and drier conditions with minimum RH values in the 20th percentile will drive the threat of fire danger. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 10AM CST until 6PM CST.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to translate east through the beginning of the extended, with similar warm and dry conditions expected to persist Friday and Saturday. By the start of the week the upper trough over NW CONUS will translate east through the Canadian provinces, while a secondary trough feature near the base of the main trough tracks from the Four Corners into the Central Plains. As a result, the surface low over southeastern CO will shift into the Southern Plains, allowing for an associated FROPA with the upper trough to pass through the area Sunday. Models continue to provide different solutions on timing, continuing to suggest a later arrival compared to what we saw this time yesterday. However, given the forecasted strength of the front, there is a chance that the FROPA arrives earlier than what guidance suggest. Nonetheless, highs Sunday will range quite a bit across the FA with cooler highs in the 50s and 60s across our more northwestern counties and in the 70s across out southeastern counties. This cooler airmass looks to remain in place Monday, as thickness and heights decrease with the base of the shortwave trough moving through, in addition to the expectation of lingering cloud cover. Similar to the previous forecast, chances for winter precipitation continue to dwindle with each run with the best chance for any precipitation remaining across the southwestern South Plains. In fact, deterministic guidance looks to be in somewhat better agreement regarding evolution of the trough, favoring the drier GFS solution from previous days. Ensembles also seem to be favoring this solution, with probabilities nearly halved from what we saw yesterday. Given this event is still a few days out, will maintain slight chance PoPs across the aforementioned area but I would not hold my breath on any precipitation chances. By Monday the surface high over eastern NM will track southward into the Big Country, which will likely limit any precipitation anyways, with a dry forecast in place for the remainder of the week. Despite the decrease in PoPs, cooler weather will stick around through mid-week. With highs near seasonal normals in the 50s, before climbing back above normal in the 60s through the end of next week as upper level ridging moves back overhead and southwest surface flow develops in response to lee troughing over SE CO.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Winds will remain out of the southwest to west for the duration of the TAF period, but will become breezy by late morning at all TAF sites. Any fog and low CIGS are expected to remain south of the KLBB terminal this morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ035-036- 039>042.