textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
- Summer heat continues through the holiday weekend and into next week.
- A few storms are possible mainly on the Caprock Saturday, with dry weather expected thereafter.
SHORT TERM
(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
The synoptic pattern will remain fairly similar over the next 24 hours as the western edge of expansive upper ridging builds only very slowly westward. It will therefore be another hot day to start the holiday weekend as temperatures Saturday afternoon again reach into the upper 90s and low 100s. Although the atmospheric column will begin to dry out over the eastern half of the area, midlevel moisture will remain relatively robust over much of the Caprock. This should result in another round of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, but activity is likely to remain focused within a diffuse surface trough near the TX/NM state line. SChc PoPs have been maintained west of I-27, with a dry forecast for areas east. Similar to the past few days, a few instances of strong wind gusts and brief downpours will be possible before storms dissipate near sunset.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Beginning on Sunday, the center of the upper level ridge is progged to position nearly directly overhead, which will keep precipitation chances at zero through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will also remain well above normal during this period with daily highs hovering in the 95-100F range, although we currently expect to remain a few degrees below record-breaking levels. The evolution of the ridging aloft becomes more uncertain Wednesday and beyond, with some solutions hinting at a northward retreat of the ridge axis which could re-introduce some low storm chances by the end of next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated thunderstorms are expected west of PVW and LBB this afternoon and evening. There is low confidence in a storm affecting the terminals.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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