textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Below average temperatures will persist through the week.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least Friday.

- The risk for severe weather will be low through the week, but locally heavy rain will be possible, especially late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Midday water vapor imagery shows an intense upper high centered across the Upper Midwest, bringing them hot and dry weather. The southern periphery of the broad mid-upper high was cycling much drier air aloft southward into the region. Despite moist low-level air holding in place across the region (18Z surface dewpoints in the mid-60s to low 70s across the entire CWA according to the West Texas Mesonet [WTM]), water vapor shows much drier air aloft invading roughly the northeast half of the CWA. The dry air is continuing to advance southwestward and will tend to limit shower/storm coverage for the rest of today into tonight. Where the deeper moisture was in place downstate, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorm stretched from the Permian Basin through Central and East Texas. The deep moisture and widespread rain will remain to our south today and tonight, but daytime heating, in combination with residual low-level moisture and a diffuse stationary surface front hanging out to the south of the CWA, will keep at least low convective chances in the picture locally. The best chance (15%-30%) for measurable precipitation will be across the southern and southwestern zones, where better tropospheric moisture resides. That said, a few pinpoint showers will be possible just about anywhere.

While locations across the north-central U.S. bake, our highs will top out slightly below average, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A mild night will follow tonight, with another pleasantly "cool" day on Tuesday. There are indications that a weak disturbance currently embedded in the flow across northeastern Texas will translate this way. This will carry in improved deep- layer moisture and renew at least low (15%-25%) PoPs, from east- to-west, on Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The mid-upper high, and its intense heat, will remain positioned well to our north, across the Midwest, through much of this week. At the same time, the deepest tropospheric moisture will linger from downstate into the Deep South through mid-week. Even so, we will be close enough to the better moisture to keep at least low rain chances in the forecast, with the best chances favoring our southern zones. After that, a mid-level disturbance moving around the south side of the upper high will approach the region from the east late week. As this happens, the moist mid-upper level air downstate will be drawn back into West Texas, leading to higher rain chances/coverage. Mid-level lapse rates, instability and vertical wind shear will remain on the low side, which will curtail overall storm organization/intensity. However, the environment will support locally heavy rainfall along with perhaps a hybrid downburst or two. The weakness aloft and moist atmosphere is progged to linger in the region Thursday, Friday and Saturday before shifting to our west in response to a building ridge over the central Rockies. Until that happens, rain chances will remain elevated while temperatures are suppressed. Thereafter, hotter and drier conditions will develop as the building ridge exerts greater influence locally.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Convection should stay well outside of the terminals this evening and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening. The primary hazard from any storm that affects a terminal will be wind gusts up to 50 knots.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.