textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms late tonight into early Monday morning, with the best chance for storms being across the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.

- Breezy westerly winds are expected on Monday, with gusts up to 45 mph.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A deep trough was present near the CA/NV border as of 11am Sun. This system will induce sfc pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies, with MSLP values expected to fall from near 1012mb as of this writing to the mid-990s by 12z/6am Mon. These pressure falls will keep SSE flow in place locally, with continued low-level moisture advection. Sfc dewpoints have climbed into the low 60s this morning, an increase of 3-5 degF between 8-11am on Sun, and are expected to reach the mid-60s ahead of an approaching front tonight.

The approaching trough will lead to dynamic wind fields overspreading the region tonight, resulting in ample wind shear both deep layer (0-6 km bulk shear values of 45-60 kts) and low- level (0- 3 km shear of 40-45 kts). CAMs have come into good agreement in showing a line of storms advancing from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and northern South Plains around 06z (midnight) and continuing east thereafter. What is less certain is whether or not any scattered storms can develop ahead of that line, which is suggested by some models. The continued presence of a low-level inversion in the forecast soundings suggests that any leading storms that do develop would be elevated (not surface based) and primarily pose a hail/wind threat. The main uncertainty for tonight is the degree of destabilization, especially with that LL inversion persisting. Models do seem to hint at a narrow corridor that becomes uncapped to surface-based convection near the main convective line, and the expected positive moisture advection lends some validity to this scenario. Given the dynamic low-level wind fields, this suggests potential for nocturnal tornadoes. Strong wind gusts remain the primary severe hazard with this line.

Regarding fog potential tonight ahead of the front, the persistence of the low-level inversion and positive moisture advection certainly raises concerns about fog development. However, forecast soundings show a much less favorable hydrolapse rate signature compared to Sunday morning, so it may wind up being continued low stratus present rather than fog.

As has been noted in previous forecasts, deeper mixing behind the front on Mon will support breezy westerly winds. There have not been any major changes to the forecast guidance in this department, with ensembles still supporting peak gusts between 35-45 mph. While there remains a conditional severe storm threat across the eastern Rolling Plains on Mon, the most likely scenario continues to be that storms form just east of our area as that front quickly shift to the east.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The mid-week pattern upper ridging over the Rockies and closed upper lows on either side of this ridge. Following a secondary cold frontal passage Mon night, winds on Tues will shift to northerly, still breezy but not as strong as Monday. A drier airmass will be present behind these fronts, with PWATs around 0.50" and sfc dewpoints in the 40s, which in conjunction with subtle height rises aloft should keep the FA dry Tues-Wed. The western-most of these upper lows will swing towards OK on Wed night, but limited moisture return keeps the precip potential low (less than 10% in our FA). Another weak cold front associated with this system should provide a renewed push of drier air from the north, and guidance generally favors upper ridging in the latter portions of the forecast period. Thus, mostly dry conditions are expected to continue late week into the weekend. Temps should be pleasant through the long term forecast period, if not a tad chilly, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

CIGs have improved slightly to MVFR at the terminals, but this should be short lived. IFR CIGs will make their way back over the terminals by 02Z. Some improvement is expected with CIGs by 06Z, especially if convection does move over or near a terminal. If convection affects a terminal, wind gusts up to 60 knots will be possible. VFR CIGs are expected to return to the terminals by 18Z Monday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.