textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Hot temperatures continue Tuesday with temperatures cooling gradually through the week.

- Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds and low RH values.

- Thunderstorm chances every evening through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

One aspect of the forecast currently going as planned is hot temperatures. There is a remnant outflow boundary draped across our northwestern and northern zones that is keeping some cloud cover around and is even producing highly isolated and shallow rain showers. This has helped to keep temperatures in this region somewhat cooler than expected. While this may keep some sites from reaching Heat Advisory level. This boundary will likely be the source for convective development during the late afternoon/early evening. Storm coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered given hot and dry conditions, though this will also increase the potential for strong wind gusts.

The upper high will begin its slow westward trek early Tuesday and will continue through the day Tuesday. This will help drop highs to below advisory level for areas on the Caprock and drop highs from warning down to advisory level off the Caprock. This will also be the start of better storm chances especially across our northwest and northern zones. Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico in the late afternoon and travel southeastward through the evening. Questions remain on how far south and east convection will travel before being outran by outflow.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The upper high will continue its slow westward trek Wednesday before eventually settling over the Desert Southwest by late week. This will both allow for temps to gradually cool through the week and bring higher rain chances. The first good chance for rain comes late Wednesday. Models are in good agreement with a shortwave trough bringing a cold front across the central CONUS and through the FA by late Wednesday morning. The front is still in place just to our west as a weakness rotates around the upper high and helps convection develop. Remnants of this front remain in the area through late week and remain a source for daily thunderstorm chances across the FA. Unfortunately rain chances look to mostly come to an end by the weekend as the upper high moves back over Texas as it transits towards the southeast CONUS. While this will bring some increase in temperatures, the upper high will not be as strong as it is today (Monday).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region through 06Z. There is great uncertainty on the potential for a storm to affect a terminal. Erratic and strong wind gusts will be possible for any storm that affects a terminal.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030- 033>036-039>041.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.