textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Mild and quiet conditions expected today ant Thursday before an arctic front early Friday morning.

- Potential extreme cold temperatures this weekend with sub-zero wind chills possible during overnight hours Friday into Saturday.

- Wintry precipitation to return Friday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today through tomorrow afternoon will be the final period of quiet weather before an extended period of active weather. The strong pressure gradient behind the front early this morning will relax through the afternoon. Winds will decrease in response as the surface ridge slides to the east from the Texas Panhandle across Oklahoma. For Thursday, we will see weak surface cyclogenesis in eastern New Mexico in response to the deep upper level storm system off the coast of southern California. This will allow winds to swing back around to the south with temperatures warming above seasonal averages.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The long-term package remains quite active compared to the weather we have experienced over the last few days in the South Plains region. The longwave trough positioned across the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to shift eastward, as the associated low translating through portions of the Ontario Province wobbles through the Great Lakes region. Off to our west, an H5 cutoff low moves onshore southern California, translating southeastward into portions of northern Mexico. This more southern track continues to be the theme between newer guidance coming in like the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. Although, the GFS continues to be the more southern of the tracks digging into portions of north-central Mexico while the ECMWF is a tad bit more northern sliding through the US/MX border while it propagates east. In addition to the more southerly trek, models continue to slow this system down with each run with some of the CAM guidance that reaches out that far in agreement with the slower runs provided by global guidance. Nonetheless, most solutions have this feature becoming an open wave as it approaches the region from the west, tracking through the area by Saturday. This synoptic setup will favor southwest flow across the FA as early as Thursday,transporting in beneficial sub-tropical moisture via the associated H5 jet. Although guidance does seem to be congealing into a better picture in regards to the evolution of this system, there is still enough run to run differences to raise some feathers in forecast certainty. One thing that continues to be consistent is the arrival of cold arctic air as a cold front associated with the upper low to our northeast swings through. Most guidance pushes the initial backdoor-ish front through our northeastern counties shortly after midnight, while the initial blast of cooler air arriving shortly after as the surface high surges south. The arrival of this arctic air being earlier in the day will lead to a pretty chilly Friday, with high temperatures likely being reached during the early morning hours and falling quickly behind the front. For now, NBM continues to be quite warm so similar to previous forecasts we have trended closer to MOS guidance with the NBM 10th percentile showing highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Although wind speeds behind the front don't look to become of much concern regarding strength, speeds up to 20 MPH could be just enough for wind chills to drop into the single digits Friday afternoon. By the overnight hours, temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits with wind chills as low as -15 degrees possible. These dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills have lead to us being within criteria for an Extreme Cold Watch which is in effect late Friday night through Saturday morning.

As far as precipitation goes, a lot will depend on the evolution of the upper level system to our west. As moisture continues to be transported into the region and we begin to see supportive lift creep in from the H5 jet and FROPA, along with the cooler airmass will lead to chances for precipitation across our area Friday through Sunday. Compared to previous forecasts, timing looks to be a bit later in the afternoon Friday compared to early Friday morning as we thought initially given the slower trek. Forecast soundings generally depict all wintry precipitation profiles across much of our area, as the thermal column looks to be below freezing through the DGZ. This combined with the extremely cold surface temperatures will favor dendritic growth along with high liquid to snow ratios. Meaning that snow that does fall will be light/fluffy and that despite our QPF being low, we can still achieve higher snow accumulations. Additionally, a modest warm nose is also evident on forecast soundings across the area, although present, temperatures remain sub-freezing through the layer which should limit any melting from occurring supporting snow. Although brief periods of mixed winter precipitation like sleet will also be possible. One caveat, soundings have a history of portraying a cooler warm nose and one thing the new GFS has done is warm this column ever so slightly. If this happens there is a chance we favor more sleet than snow. Thankfully given the depth of the super cold subfreezing layer, liquid retention should be limited, which leads to a higher confidence in sleet over any freezing rain. Across our southeastern counties, soundings are a bit warmer with a true above freezing warm nose evident aloft. So this is the area we could see some freezing rain try to mix in, however once again, the depth of the very cold layer below favors refreezing despite the evidence of an elevated warm layer. As a result, limited freezing rain will help keep ice accumulations low across our FA. As for snow accumulations, this continues to be the trickiest to pin down given the uncertainties. Higher accumulations are expected across our northern half with accumulations up to 8" possible, while further south accumulations up to 3" to 5" are possible. As this system continues to approach and we get a better grasp on the location and timing of this, we will begin to have a higher confidence in totals. As for now, this remains a lower confidence forecast in regards to snow amounts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Low CIGS may make a run at the KCDS terminal early Thursday morning but are expected to remain south of the terminal. Otherwise, VFR is expected to persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ021>044.