textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Wednesday through Friday.

- Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, and quarter sized hail.

- Slightly cooler this week, with highs in the 70s to lower 90s, warming back up through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Showers will persist across portions of the Caprock regions late this evening, with activity expected to linger through much of the early morning hours before diminishing after daybreak. Although the severe threat remains low, we cannot rule out a few stronger wind gusts with stronger storm cores that develop. THe primary threat will be locally heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flooding across poor drainage areas. Similar to this morning, we expect low-stratus to fill in across the Caprock regions and linger through early afternoon Wednesday. As a result, a few locations could see afternoon highs slightly cooler than what the current NBM temperatures portray. With highs in the 70s to mid 80s across the Caprock while temperatures off the Caprock range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. As far as precipitation goes, a similar synoptic setup is expected as what we saw earlier this afternoon, as a disturbance within the southerly flow tracks through eastern NM. Given the flow will be more oriented out of the south rather than southwest, this should limit storms from tracking into eastern portions of the FA, with the highest precipitation chances remaining along the TX/NM state line. However, hi-resolution guidance depicts a surface trough setting up off the Caprock, which in addition to lingering outflow boundaries could provide enough convergence given anomalously high PWATs across the region and continued moist upslope flow. Additionally, WPC analysis depicts a stationary front oriented across the FA, which will gradually begin to retreat northward Wednesday afternoon. This boundary could also provide an additional source of convergence and help maintain precipitation chance, particularly across the northern portions of the FA as it lifts northward. As a result, will maintain NBM widespread mentionable PoPs, but limit them from definte-likely(~55% to 85%)to chance-slight(~20% to 54%) chance.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The upper shortwave will continue to lift northeastward across the High Plains through the beginning of the extended period while a secondary disturbance tracks northward through portions of eastern NM. As a result, the FA will remain positioned within a favorable southerly flow regime aloft, between the departing waves and an amplifying ridge to the east. This set up will continue to support the transport of subtropical moisture into the region, with PWATS remaining elevated and well above climatological standards. Generally ranging from 1.5" across the Caprock and up to 1.75" off the Caprock through Friday. With several smaller perturbations embedded within the flow, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the end of the work week. The better potential for more widespread precipitation looks to occur Thursday and Friday, particularly during the late evening and overnight hours, as a more organized disturbance tracks near the region. An intensifying LLJ during this timeframe should help enhance moisture transport and convergence, while moist isentropic ascent around the 315K surface help to provide additional sources of lift and moisture for shower and thunderstorm development. Given the abundant moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern, though strong to marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out within stronger storm cores. As well as small hail, especially if storms are able to grow upscale overnight, we could see a small risk for elevated hailers. Overall the severe potential remains limited, though localized flooding could become an issue with the expectation of slow storm motions along with training storms.

Into the weekend, the upper pattern will begin to shift as ridging gradually builds back across the region. This should allow the deeper moisture to slowly retreat, with PWATs and low-level moisture trending downward through the weekend. As a result, precipitation chances will decrease and temperatures will begin to climb back above seasonal standards, leading to a slightly warmer and drier pattern Saturday and Sunday. Though drier, we cannot rule out an isolated storm or two with any lingering moisture and passing disturbances within the flow. Attention then turn towards next week, as ensemble guidance begins to show increasing potential for another upper level disturbance to dig southeastward into the Four Corners. THis could eventually support renewed precipitation chances and another round of cooler temperatures across the region. However, ensemble spread remains fairly large at this time, with at least half the members maintaining highs in the 90s next week. Therefore, confidence in the magnitude and timing of any potential cooldown remains low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A small chance of MVFR CIGs exists this morning primarily at KPVW and KLBB, but currently VFR appears likely to prevail over the next 24 hours. Scattered SHRA will persist through mid-morning, with another round of SHRA and a few TSRA expected this evening through late tonight. Light E to SE winds prevail otherwise.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.