textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will affect portions of the Caprock late this afternoon and move into the Rolling Plains tonight.

- Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards with storms late this afternoon and tonight.

- Chances for thunderstorms are forecast each day through the middle of next week, some of which may be severe.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a broad, large-scale trough was evident on water-vapor imagery over the Great Plains, with a negatively-tilted trough and its related stacking cyclone rotating over the Drift Prairie of ND; and a lower-amplitude shortwave trough responsible for the severe-caliber convection yesterday that has since ejected eastward over central N TX. High-level flow remained split, with a quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak objectively analyzed at 90 kt translating over north-central Mexico and into S TX. Farther north, a sharply cyclonic jet streak rounded the base of the ejecting negatively-tilted trough, with another compact, shortwave trough upstream of the vertically-stacked cyclone that was pivoting over the Uinta Basin. Modest, west-southwesterly 250 mb flow was advecting over the CWA and analyzed between 25-30 kt by the 23/00Z RAOBs from WFOs AMA and MAF. Mid-level winds were in a dampened state across the entirety of the meridional waveguide, with nearby and upstream RAOBs sampling about 20-25 kt of flow. Deep-layer flow is forecast to remain modest throughout the next 24 hours, as the CWA will remain positioned between the bifurcated jetlets, which will result in effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt. Lingering anvil debris will eventually advect to the east-northeast of the CWA by dawn, with an expectation for low-level stratus to develop across the Caprock during the hours leading up to and after sunrise due to the persistent upslope flow within the decoupled boundary-layer.

At the surface, a convectively-contaminated wind field is gradually beginning to restore to its prevailing state, as a mesoscale high following the MCS continues to decay. The centroid of this mesoscale high was south of CDS near Paducah per recent WTM data, with winds veering eastward onto the Caprock. A quasi-stationary front was located across the TX PH and is now crossing I-40 as of 0610Z, with a weak cyclone embedded within the front near AMA. Another surface low was located near CNM, with the dryline branching southward into the TX Big Bend. The quasi-stationary front is forecast to stall across the far southern TX PH during the predawn hours and slosh northward as the boundary-layer begins to mix, with the dryline expected to remain stalled near the NM state line, thereby keeping the entire CWA within the moist sector this afternoon. As surface winds restore to the southeast, a reservoir of dewpoints in the lower 60s will advect across the CWA as the low-level stratus deck erodes by the early afternoon hours, resulting in the gradual destabilization of the boundary-layer throughout the afternoon as temperatures breach 80 degrees across most of W TX.

The presence of the stalled front near and/or within the northern zones, in addition to strong MLCINH, will result in highs ranging from the lower 80s across the far southern TX PH into the upper 80s across the southern South and Rolling Plains, yielding moderate instability. The 23/00Z RAOB from WFO AMA sampled a tall EML, characterized by 1,089 J/kg of CAPE for mixed-layer parcels and 1,546 J/kg for most-unstable parcel trajectories. A well-defined residual-layer affected the magnitude of mixed-layer CAPE, but steep lapse rates were present in both the sub-cloud and residual-layers, i.e., 7.6 deg C/km within the 850-500 mb layer. A shortwave impulse stemming from the glancing influence of the northern-stream trough ejecting over the north-central Great Plains this afternoon is forecast to erode of the mid-level warm nose and result in the formation of diurnally-driven convection off of the higher terrain to the west of the CWA, with a mean convective movement towards the east-southeast along the apex of the diffuse thickness gradient.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and cross the NM state line near 24/00Z, with more-isolated storm development possible in the mid-to-late afternoon hours along any lingering outflow boundaries across the Caprock. Weakly supercellular wind profiles will foster the maintenance of mid-level mesocyclones amidst MLCAPE values potentially upwards of 2,000 J/kg as lapse rates steepen slightly. Initial storms will be high-based, posing a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and large hail up to two inches in diameter. It appears that the greatest potential for large hail will be across the Caprock before outflow- related theta deficits in conjuction with the low-level jet strengthening to about 20-25 kt results in isentropically-induced cells to unzip along the leading edge of the cold pools. Merging cold pools into the late evening hours may result in a couple of narrow corridors for wind-damage as storms propagate along outflow(s) into the Rolling Plains after dark. Heavy rainfall will warrant a risk for localized flash flooding, primarily with merged cells that attain semi-discrete characteristics, with right-moving vectors oriented nearly 40 degrees relative to the total downshear propagation component. Storm chances will end from west-to-east tonight, with the potential for remnant convection to linger through the predawn hours Sunday in the Rolling Plains. Patchy fog may develop across portions of the CWA Sunday morning as the airmass nears its saturation point amidst light and variable winds.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

By the second half of the weekend into early next week, a low- amplitude mid/upper level ridge axis is progged to build over NM/CO ahead of weak troughing over the CA coast. At the surface, flow is expected to remain generally southerly as very weak troughing persists in the lee of the NM high terrain, which will keep relatively robust low/mid level moisture in place across the region, although a diffuse dryline is still likely to develop somewhere over the Caprock each afternoon. This will result in at least isolated convective development on both Sunday and Monday, but coverage and intensity are expected to remain limited given slightly increased midlevel subsidence as well as a notable lack of shear courtesy of very weak flow aloft. Storm chances Sunday and Monday will also be highest near the TX/NM state line in closer proximity to the high terrain, with generally drier weather farther east. By late Monday night, the ridging aloft will break down entirely as large scale troughing over the Pacific coast begins shifting eastward. Models are in good agreement bringing a leading shortwave over the region sometime on Tuesday, with the trough potentially obtaining a slight negative tilt as it does so. While this will likely bring a period of more widespread showers and storms to the region, severe potential will depend on the timing of the trough, with a slower progression favoring better storm chances for a longer period Tuesday into Tuesday night compared to a faster progression. Thereafter, consensus indicates a cutoff low will likely develop somewhere over the western CONUS, with weak ridging ahead of it potentially bringing a relative break in storm chances during the middle to late week period along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A broken deck of VFR stratus has recently developed INVOF KLBB, and it remains unclear if CIGs will descend into MVFR. Trends are being monitored, as it is possible that a few hours of MVFR occur through the late morning hours. Winds will remain light through this evening, with southeasterly winds becoming slightly breezy ahead of increasing TSTM potential at KLBB and KPVW, with KCDS to follow. PROB30 groups have been assigned to reflect the best timing for TSTMs. TSTMs will clear from west-to-east tonight, with the potential for MVFR CIGs and patchy fog towards the end of the TAF period, but confidence remains low except for KCDS.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.