textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over the southern Texas Panhandle, but most areas will remain dry.

- Above normal temperatures will persist well into the upcoming week.

- Slight chances of storms will return mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

An upper level ridge currently centered over northeast Texas will slowly migrate westward today into North Texas. Subsidence from this large scale feature will largely act to suppress convection across the area with only a slight chance across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. A weak remnant outflow boundary had stalled out across the southern Texas Panhandle and will likely be the only focus for convection this afternoon. Models show this boundary to be fairly shallow extending upwards less than 100mb. Southerly flow was present south of this boundary with northerly to variable winds north of the boundary. Weak south to southwesterly flow in the cloud bearing layer will allow storms to drift northward after initiation. A hot and dry boundary layer will lead to similar threats from these types of storms we have seen over the past several weeks. The primary threat will be strong downburst winds. Brief heavy rainfall will likely occur directly beneath cores. This upper level ridge will continue to slowly move west on Monday centering directly over northwest Texas into the Rolling Plains Monday afternoon. The position of the ridge on Monday will essentially shut down any convective chances.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The upper level ridge will move overhead by Tuesday morning bringing the hottest temperatures of the week on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures may again reach advisory criteria for areas off the caprock for Tuesday. The ridge will continue drifting west settling near the four corners region by Wednesday and remaining there for the rest of the week afterwards. Mid and upper level flow will transition to the northwest and potentially bring a brief period of northwest flow storms mid to late week. A short wave trough of varying amplitude, depending on the model of choice, will swing across the Central Plains sometime during the second half of the week. This system will attempt to bring a cold front southward into the Texas Panhandle but certainty is low in how far south this front will move.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Wind will remain from the S-SW thru at least 06Z. After 06Z winds will begin a slow migration towards the NW before heading back SW at the end of the prd. Winds will remain between 5-10kts.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.