textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Shower and thunderstorms possible beginning this evening and continue through Saturday afternoon.

- Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return next week increasing chances of enhanced fire weather.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Will be a pleasant rest of the overnight period. Current satellite imagery shows clouds filling over much of the region. Mostly cloudy skies will keep morning temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. Upper ridging will continue over the region to start off Friday. Concurrently, a positively tilted trough stretched across Nevada and SoCal will translate east toward the High Plains bringing precipitation chances to the region. As the upper system approaches the region, shower and thunderstorm development will be possible as an upper jet will pass overhead in combination with moisture advection from southerly surface flow through the day. Severe weather threat with any thunderstorm development is low with MUCAPE values just under 700 J/kg. However, some hail up to quarter size and localized severe wind gusts will be possible. Widespread rain shower chances are expected to persist overnight with the upper trough passing overhead Saturday morning. Thunderstorm threat will decrease overnight into Saturday as CAPE values drastically decrease to near zero. The upper system will exit the region by late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening effectively dry slotting the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease west to east through the afternoon following the upper system. Rainfall totals are expected to be around 1 inch with PWAT values ranging from just under 1 inch over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle up to 1.25 inches for areas off the Caprock. Some localized areas could see higher rainfall amounts leading to potential flooding. As for temperatures, despite the mostly cloudy skies and widespread rain potential, well above average highs in the 60s to 70s are expected both Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Following the precipitation event ending on Saturday, upper level ridging will quickly move overhead on Sunday as we move into an extended period of dry, warm, and breezy conditions. This upper level ridge will transition to the eastern US after Sunday leaving persistent southwesterly flow aloft over West Texas for the remainder of the week. An active pattern of short wave troughs moving through this flow will generally be too far north to bring precipitation to the area but will be favorable for enhanced fire weather concerns. These series of short wave troughs will promote lee side cyclogenesis and breezy downsloping winds each afternoon. Most afternoons next week will see temperatures on the order of 15- 25 degrees above seasonal averages. At the moment, timing of the short wave troughs would favor Tuesday and Thursday as the breeziest days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South to southwesterly winds are expected to continue through Friday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances are possible at all three TAF sites beginning late afternoon/early evening Friday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.