textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 519 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend.

- Slightly cooler (but still above average) temperatures are expected next week.

- A series of passing upper level disturbances will bring chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the region Tuesday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Today will be warm and quiet. Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate through tonight. Surface winds will begin veering to the south to southeast through early this morning as surface high pressure over Oklahoma pushes well to our east. Winds will also respond to surface lee troughing this afternoon and continue veering to the southwest. A weak surface low is progged to break away from the lee trough and move across the Texas Panhandle late tonight. This will result in winds shifting to the north beginning around sunrise Saturday morning. While winds will shift to the north, there will be no real cold front and is purely just a wind shift. Winds will allow overnight lows to remain warm tonight, only dropping into the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Northwesterly upper flow will begin to flatten Saturday as an upper low over the Pacific slowly moves into the Pacific Northwest by late Sunday. This will be preceded by a passive cold front moving into the region Sunday afternoon. The front will cool temps from highs in the 80s Sunday to highs in the 60s and low 70s Monday. Overall this front should be dry but could bring a short window for drizzle due to frontal forcing. Winds will quickly veer to the south by Monday evening as the upper low over the Pacific northwest begins pushing southeastward towards the Four Corners, transporting Gulf Moisture into the region. Models differ with the overall evolution of the upper low, with the ECMWF showing it becoming an open wave by Tuesday afternoon as it passes over the Four Corners. The GFS keeps it as a closed low. Models overall continue to trend drier, especially the GFS, while the ECMWF still shows a chance for at least rain showers. Overall, confidence is trending to a drier forecast. Rain chances with the ECMWF is also depending on a cold front moving through the region by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the approaching upper shortwave. Overall rainfall amounts should be relatively light if it does occur. Models do agree on an eventual pattern of several passing upper lows late next week and beyond, though rain chances are yet to be determined.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. Light winds this morning will become southerly and increase by midday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.