textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some with damaging wind gusts.

- Hot temperatures through Thursday with additional chances for late-day storms.

- Weak cold front Thursday night followed by another front this weekend with greater chances for storms.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Following some morning stratus, ample moisture to the tune of low 70 dewpoints was beginning to mix out over the western South Plains as of 11 AM along a developing dryline. The dryline won't have much push today as winds throughout the low and mid and levels are quite weak at 15 knots or less, so by mid-afternoon this boundary should reside near a Morton to Silverton line. Although weak, southwesterly flow aloft is host to a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery in far southeast NM late this morning. As both this impulse and an upper jet reach the western South Plains by 3-5 PM, the stage should be set for convective initiation along the dryline as CIN erodes to near zero from strong heating and modest background cooling/ascent. Confidence in storms is higher, so isolated coverage was added from 4 PM to 10 PM which may prove too conservative based on some CAMs. Similar to yesterday, tall inverted-v soundings with LCLs around 9000 feet and CAPEs of 1500 J/kg are shown to support downdraft CAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg, so microbursts are once again in the cards until storms taper after sunset.

Overnight, an upper high over East Texas peels farther away allowing our heights and thicknesses to draw lower for Tuesday. This will keep high temps 5-10 degrees lower than today as the moist sector expands into eastern NM keeping the dryline well away from us. Along with this deeper moist sector comes a threat for more low stratus around daybreak Tuesday as dewpoints climb to around 70, before mixing out into the lower 60s in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday evening opens with a low chance for storms in eastern NM drifting east and possibly affecting our southwest Panhandle counties. This feat could be aided by improved steering flow of around 20 knots south of a shortwave trough grazing our area, but most guidance keeps precip well to our north and northwest. As winds aloft veer more westerly for Wednesday, a low-level thermal ridge will overspread the forecast area resulting in hotter temps and a return of the dryline. Most models are very muted with convection along the dryline despite strong heating and negligible CIN, so later forecasts may need to consider some low PoPs. Weakly cyclonic westerly flow remains with us on Thursday and PoPs trend higher particularly later in the day as a weak cold front arrives courtesy of a stronger trough rotating across the Corn Belt. The ECMWF is faster with both of these features which would support cooler highs on Thursday, but for now highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s remain on tap. This cold front should stall nearby on Friday and focus additional chances for storms until a stronger front fuels even greater rain chances later this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR outside of isolated TS developing around 21Z near any of the terminals. Low coverage precludes mention in the TAFs, but any TS could have microbursts with locally dense BLDU.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.