textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A cold front earlier this morning will bring breezy winds and much cooler temperatures today.

- Near seasonal normal temperatures expected through mid-week, before an arctic front blasts through Friday.

- Chances for wintry precipitation return Friday through Saturday, but confidence in timing, location, and p-type remain low.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Benign weather is expected to continue through the short term period. Following the early morning FROPA this morning, winds have shifted out of the north, drawling in the cooler airmass from the north. Hence, temperatures will remain quite cool this afternoon with highs not expected to get out of the 40s. The cooler airmass will remain locked in place through the overnight period, with clear skies and light winds, allowing for max radiational cooling with overnight lows in the mid teens to 20s. Heading into Tuesday, winds will begin to shift out of the west-southwest as the surface high shifts east while a lee trough develops to our northwest. Winds will become breezy, as the pressure gradient tightens across the region as the surface trough digs southward. NBM seems a bit low, so opted for the breezier NBM 75th for wind speeds Tuesday afternoon. The downslope component to the wind will work to advect warm air back into the region, which in combination with the slight uptick in thickness values will result in highs in the 50s across much of the area. There is a chance for low-level clouds to creep into portions of the southeastern Rolling Plains, which could alter highs across the aforementioned area, therefore opted to blend slightly cooler from the NBM.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Quiet weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday as the FA remains influenced by the large scale trough that continues to dominate across the eastern half of the CONUS. Therefore we can expect the mild weather to continue with highs in the 50s under the typical West Texas breezes each afternoon through mid-week. Towards the end of the week the upper level low associated with the longwave trough will translate through the eastern Canadian provinces. Meanwhile over Baja California, an upper level closed low will begin to move onshore while translating east into the Desert Southwest. As a result of this synoptic pattern change, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly as early as Thursday evening, transporting beneficial subtropical moisture into the region via the H5 jet. Ensembles continue to hint at when the upper level low and long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Ontario province ejects northeast, an arctic front will surge southward towards the region. Latest guidance is in decent agreement that the FROPA should arrive during the morning hours Friday, although still uncertain whether thats early Friday morning or during the later morning hours. As a result of this set up, there not only looks to be the potential for chilly temperatures, but the chance for winter precipitation Friday through at least Saturday as temperatures plunge into the 20s and 30s. Overall there is quite a bot of uncertainty regarding highs and precipitation. MOS wants to think that the front will not only blast through early Friday, but bring temperatures topping out below freezing Friday in the lower 30s and in the 20s on Saturday. While other guidance suggest highs about 10 degrees warmer from that on those respective days. Although still cooler from the previous NBM, temperatures looked rather warm for Friday, so a slightly nudge down felt necessary given most guidance has highs in at least the 30s for Friday following the front. As for precipitation, NBM has increased PoPs across the region, which seems fair given the current evolution portrayed by both deterministic and ensembles although they vary slightly on the evolution. However, this system is still several days out, given time for change. Therefore, this remains a low confidence forecast given the placement and longevity of this system will play a factor in where precipitation falls, how cool it gets, and what type of precipitation falls. If we see the front blast through earlier, and temperatures plummet quickly, we could see a short- lived window for frozen precipitation before a transition into snow. While if we see warmer air advected into the region via SW flow, and the front takes a slower track, then we may see more frozen precipitation rather than snowfall. Therefore, until we see models become more aligned in the coming days as this system approaches, there is not much we can resolve regarding the timing and precipitation type and these details will continue to be assessed in the the coming days. Nonetheless, cold arctic air looks to be incoming regardless, so prepare yourself now and remember the 4Ps. Protect Pipes, Plants, Pets, and People.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Behind the cold front winds will be between 15-20G25kts from the NE thru 23Z then a decrease in intensity to 05-10kts is expected.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.