textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Slightly warmer today as southerly winds develop, followed by modestly cooler temperatures for Thursday-Sunday.

- Breezy southerly winds are expected on the Caprock Wednesday afternoon, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

- Precipitation chances are low through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

An Omega-shaped synoptic pattern is present this evening, with upper lows over IA and CA, and ridging from the Four Corners northward to MT. The frontal system that moved through yesterday has shifted well south, with the cold front reaching the TX Gulf Coast as of 5pm/22z. In its wake, weak sfc high pressure (1018mb) is progged to move in tonight, with winds weakening quickly after sunset. Dewpoints across the FA are in the 40s currently, and lows will drop to near these values as favorable radiational cooling conditions develop (light winds, mostly clear skies). As dewpoint depressions shrink overnight, there is a low chance for fog, but to this point there has not been a strong enough signal to warrant a mention in the forecast. The NBM has just a 10% chance for visibility less than 5 miles.

As the approaching upper low shifts towards the Four Corners tomorrow, sfc pressure falls over the Panhandles will result in southerly flow developing locally. That should boost temps a bit relative to Tues, although high-res models indicate an east-west oriented plume of high cirrus clouds over areas south of the TX Panhandle, which may temper the warming slightly. Overall, it looks like a very pleasant day, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Those southerly winds may be a tad breezy on the Caprock, with gusts 20-30 mph.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

In the upper levels, a split flow pattern develops and persists. While another upper disturbance is progged to move onto the central Plains by Sat, limited moisture return suggests precip chances will be sparse, and this wave isn't quite in phase with a southern stream low over AZ which lessens the large-scale forcing. The NBM PoPs are low, just 10-15%, but with little else in the forecast right now it's at least a time frame to monitor.

Temps will be on the cool side Thurs-Sun, and while a freeze is still unlikely there may be some nights that are cool enough for frost, especially Thurs night into Fri AM as the presence of sfc high pressure results in good radiational cooling conditions (clear skies, light winds). Highs during this time period will generally be in the upper 50s and 60s, while lows will range from mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. A slight warming trend is anticipated into the following week.

Precipitation may return by the middle of next week, depending on the evolution of the closed low over the SW US (and perhaps an additional wave moving through the southern jet stream). However, guidance is often too quick with these closed upper lows, and deterministic models hint at a Rex Block developing over the western US early next week (upper ridge poleward of upper lows), and this blocking pattern would also favor a slower evolution. All told, rain occurring next week is far from a sure thing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Southerly winds will persist this afternoon into tonight. Winds will shift out of the west-northwest at LBB and PVW and increase to 10-15 knots on Thursday morning in advance of a cold front.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.