textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across portions of the Caprock Friday evening. Severe potential is low, but can expect gusty winds and outflows with these storms.

- Slight cool down and widespread thunderstorm chances over the weekend.

- Cooler highs continue through next week with daily slight thunderstorm chances across southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current radar imagery shows storms across eastern NM. These storms continue to track southeast into out CWA, however they are diminishing rapidly as the cross the state border. An outflow from a storm across Roosevelt County in NM is currently pushing through Cochran. The outflow is not very strong with the strongest gust measured by a WTM is 32 mph. Similar to outflows from earlier storms, it is expected to die off quickly. Once these storms clear, the rest of the overnight period is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Current surface observations indicate winds across the region vary between the south to southeast. These winds will gradually shift to the southwest by early Friday morning as the lee surface trough shifts east across the Central Plains. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging continues to dominate southwestern CONUS while a shortwave is moving across the Central Plains. The upper high is expected to gradually expand north across much of the Four Corners region through the day prolonging northwesterly flow aloft. Friday is looking to be a rinse and repeat of today. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will prolong hot temperatures. Highs will remain in the upper 90s across the Caprock while just below Heat Advisory temperatures are expected off the Caprock. A very similar thunderstorm set up as this evening is expected Friday evening. Surface flow will shift to the southeast in the afternoon in response to the development of a lee surface trough across southern CO and northern NM. Southeasterly upslope flow and convergence along the southern edge of the surface trough will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in NM. Northeasterly upper flow will give the push for the storms to track southeast into our forecast area. Compared this evening, wider coverage of thunderstorms on the Caprock is expected Friday evening. Some CAMs have thunderstorms lasting overnight and across much of the Caprock. This forecaster is uncertain in storms prevailing overnight in the unfavorable environment. Severe thunderstorm potential is low with very little instability. However, can expect some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds and outflows. The rest of the CWA will remain dry.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Hot temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances is the main theme for the long term forecast. The upper high is expected to amplify across portions of the Rockies at the same time as it shifts east toward the Central Plains bringing wider spread thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The greatest chances look to be Sunday afternoon and evening when the upper high sits across central CONUS as an upper low begins to develop across the Gulf states bringing northeasterly flow aloft. Prolonged storms will slightly cool temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 90s across much of the region. However, some localized areas off the Caprock could still see triple digit highs, especially Saturday. A weak front is progged to approach the region early next week effectively pushing the moist air out of the forecast area. NBM has backed off on thunderstorm chances beginning Monday, however still has slight chances over southern portions of the CWA. However, it will be dependent on the progression of the weak front. The slight cool down will continue into next week as the aforementioned upper low expands west across Texas. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected at least through mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR with borderline LLWS at PVW and CDS until 10Z. Another round of evening and late-night TS are likely NW of LBB-PVW Friday night.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.