textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms possible across the Caprock early Friday morning.

- Hot and dry conditions are expected to return and continue Friday afternoon through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Friday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Isolated to scattered marginally severe to severe storms continue across portions of the Caprock region as lingering outflow boundaries have generated thunderstorm develop over the last several hours. This activity is expected to wane as we get closer to sunset, with our eyes turning to the "main show" for precipitation with satellite imagery showing development along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Similar to last night, hi- resolution guidance is split on whether these storms will make it into areas across the Caprock around daybreak with steering flow looking to be a bit more southerly. Which may keep the bulk of activity to our west in New Mexico. If storms are able to track into the region, storms will be capable of producing marginally severe winds up to 55 mph, along with pea sized hail. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected with overnight lows in the 60s to mid 70s, as light easterly winds continue.

The upper level ridge and associated 596 dam upper high will scoot back eastward Friday afternoon, bringing the return of warmer temperatures as we see a subtle increase in geopotential heights. Thankfully, little to no change in thickness values will help keep temperatures from becoming excessively hot, with easterly flow continuing at the surface to H7 level with the surface high centered to our east. Expect highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday in the mid 90s to lower triple digits. Little to no precipitation is expected Friday afternoon, although a few models like the HRRR and ARW are hinting at a few ridge riding storms developing along a subtle perturbation tracking down the eastern periphery of the upper high. Monsoonal moisture will be displaced east of the area, so moisture may be hard to come by. Nonetheless, high-based "virga" showers and storms may be possible, primarily across the southwestern South Plains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will gradually shift through the extended as the upper level ridge begins to shift daily, eventually into the lower Mississippi River Valley by early next week while flattening in response to a deepening trough over the Intermountain West. Meanwhile at the surface, southwesterly flow is expected to develop as troughing develops in the lee of the Rockies, aiding in a gradual uptick in afternoon temperatures through the weekend as thickness and heights subtle increase. The warmest temperatures are expected to develop Sunday afternoon, where a Heat Advisory may be needed Off the Caprock, as the center of the 595 dam sets up over the South Plains region. The upper high will then shift eastward, into the ArkLaTX region Monday, into the River Valley by mid-week. This will allow temperatures to cool slightly, though still quite warm in the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits. Persistent subsidence beneath the ridge will continue to limit convective potential through the extended, with dry and quiet conditions expected through much of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms may make their way near KPVW within the next couple of hours, however confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.