textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits.

- Cooler and wetter conditions will be possible early next week through mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

As of late Wednesday evening, showers and thunderstorms have been not as widespread as originally anticipated. As storms track eastward through the late evening towards midnight Thursday we expect a downward trend to continue with a mostly dry forecast through the remainder of the night. Although a few showers and storms may linger off the Caprock. Given a decent plume of residual low to mid level moisture in place, low stratus may try creep into south-central portions of the FA around daybreak. We do not expect low clouds to stay for long as drier air works its way in with winds veering out of the southwest by mid-morning while the upper level ridge axis expands westward. As a result, southwest flow aloft will become more westerly, keeping much of the subtropical moisture to our west across eastern New Mexico. Therefore, a relatively dry forecast is expected for much of the day Thursday with highs climbing into the 90s and lower triple digits. Although we expect the forecast to remain dry for most, there is little indication by CAMs on a few higher terrain storms to our west tracking into areas along the TX/NM state line. However, steering flow remains weak around 10 to 15 knots which will likely hinder most activity from making its way into the area before dying off. Any activity that makes it's way into the area will diminish before midnight with another quiet night Thursday with mild lows in the mid 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper level ridge axis will continue to shift westward through the end of the work week, centering itself over the Desert Southwest region by Independence Day. As a result, hot, dry, and stable conditions are expected to remain on hold through the holiday weekend with highs increasing slightly each afternoon Friday through Saturday, generally remaining in the mid to upper 90s to lower triple digits. The NBM continues to throw in isolated PoPs in portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle as a subtle impulse tracks down the eastern periphery of the upper high. Despite this source of forcing, moisture at the lower to mid-levels will be hard to come by with better moisture arriving late Sunday. Therefore, PoPs seem to be a bit more robust when what this forecasters confidence is but will maintain isolated PoPs until we see better agreement in hi-resolution guidance in the coming days. Sunday through middle of next week, northwest flow aloft will continue across the region as the high remains positioned over southern New Mexico. Simultaneously a surface low will remain parked over eastern New Mexico, aiding in moisture transport from the Gulf. As perturbations ripple through the NW flow aloft, we will likely see upslope flow driven thunderstorms develop across the higher terrain making their way into portions of the area each afternoon. Coverage and extent of precipitation remains low in confidence so will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being. As for temperatures, we will see highs slightly "cooler" in the 90s as heights and thickness values increase. This will sadly be short- lived with triple digit heat expected to return by late week next week in response to a strengthening upper high expanding back east.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Ongoing TS near KCDS will continue through a few more hours, with chances for TS then arriving at KLBB and KPVW later this evening. It is uncertain how long convection will persist into the early morning hours, but general consensus is that it will dissipate prior to sunrise. VFR is expected to prevail overnight, with MVFR CIGs likely to develop at KLBB and KPVW on Thursday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.