textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue overnight through Wednesday, some with heavy rain. - Cooler with daily chances for storms through the week into the weekend.

- The severe weather threat remains low, although small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall may accompany any storm.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Storms are developing across the FA along various remnant boundaries, one stretching from Morton southeast to Post, and the other from Happy to Turkey. Coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours. A very visible outflow boundary is quickly pushing southeastward across our northwestern zones. Though activity behind the boundary has bee quiet for the past two hours, storms are now beginning to develop behind it as progged by the CAMs. CAMs have gone back and forth through the evening with how far east convection will push. The somewhat general consensus has been to dissipate when reaching the I27/US87 corridor. The outflow to our northwest, however, is moving quicker than forecast with storm coverage also being greater, therefore PoPs have been increased across the FA and include at least a mention of slight chance across our eastern zones. Despite an overall low threat for severe storms, gusts to 50 mph will not be out of the ordinary and some storms could produce gusts up to 65 mph. The threat for hail is low. Brief, heavy rainfall will also be possible and could lead to localized flooding.

Precip will begin to wain by sunrise, though scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will remain through mid morning. We should see convective activity increase again by late morning to early afternoon as upper heights fall with a passing shortwave and possibly lead to wider storm coverage. Shear is expected to be slightly improved over the present time but still marginal. Some storms could produce hail up to half dollar size and wind gusts up to 70 mph during the afternoon and early evening, though storms will overall be disorganized. The first round of storms should exit to our east by midnight before more storms possibly develop across the Caprock and western Rolling Plains as the LLJ ramps up once again.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Warm with daily chances for precipitation seems to be the main theme for the extended forecast package. By the start of the extended, we will begin to see the blocking pattern break down as the center of the upper level high shifts into the southeastern CONUS in response to an upper level trough translating east into portions of north-central Mexico from Baja California. An H5 shortwave trough within the main flow out ahead of the parent trough will translate into the region Thursday, attempting to tap into the residual moisture in place before the main trough tracks in later Friday. Deterministic guidance seems to be in better agreement compared to this time yesterday, nonetheless confidence still remains low with the run to run difference in evolution and timing. Despite this, ensemble guidance is still hinting at the potential for widespread precipitation through the weekend, therefore have opted to leave NBM mentionable PoPs as is for the time being. Until we see better indication from guidance in regards to timing and coverage. Instability parameters look weak through the extended, with the main threat for storms being the potential for flooding given the rich moisture in place with PWATs above an inch in place. Precipitation chances will decrease by Sunday with drier and warmer conditions expected by early next week as upper level ridging begins to move back in and amplify across the Plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Numerous clusters of thunderstorms are expected to persist through the overnight hours, and will mainly impact KLBB/KPVW and points west. This convection will be rather slow-moving and may result in periods of IFR/MVFR visibility along with strong wind gusts. Outside of convection, VFR is expected to prevail. After a brief break in convection after sunrise, additional TS are possible on Wednesday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.