textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- A few isolated storms are possible on the Caprock through this evening, with additional scattered storm activity expected on Thursday. Strong wind gusts will be possible.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the next several days.

- Dry weather is likely to persist from Saturday into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Another hot summer day is ongoing across the region as upper level high pressure remains centered over the gulf coast. Relatively breezy conditions will also continue over the next 24 hours given a persistent and fairly deep surface trough over CO/KS and the TX Panhandle, with south winds remaining in the 15 to 25 mph range tonight through most of Thursday. Aloft, water vapor imagery highlights a weak disturbance over southeast NM on the western edge of the ride. Together with today's strong heating and slightly better midlevel moisture compared to days past, this may be enough to support a few very isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over western portions of the Caprock. Any activity today will be high-based resulting in potential for strong downburst winds, but storms will be disorganized and short- lived with only a 10 percent chance or less of measurable rainfall today.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be a bit warmer than today off the Caprock where temperatures will peak near or just above 105 Thursday afternoon, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Thursday for areas east of the escarpment. Otherwise, chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will return on Thursday with forecast soundings indicating little inhibition above a deeply mixed lower atmosphere. With the aforementioned weakness in the ridging aloft still present nearby, conditions will be favorable for the development of scattered high-based storms by mid- afternoon, again favoring areas on the Caprock (with about a 20 percent chance of rain in any given location). Fairly significant DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will support downburst and damaging wind potential beneath the strongest storm cores, but a lack of meaningful deep layer shear will keep storm activity rather disorganized. Confidence in iso/sct storm development Thursday afternoon is relatively high, but storm evolution through the rest of the evening will be predominantly outflow-driven with confidence in eastward propagation and coverage off the Caprock remaining quite low. Given the very dry fuel states across the region, it is worth noting that lightning strikes may result in wildfire ignition, particularly over the SE TX Panhandle if storms survive that far east.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper level ridge will continue to shift westward Friday into the weekend, with the ribbon of mid/upper level moisture responsible for Wed-Thu storm chances consequently retreating back towards the Four Corners. Thunderstorm potential will therefore decrease, although a few isolated storms may still develop near the TX/NM state line through Friday evening. Dry weather is favored to return to the entire forecast area Sat-Sun and into at least early next week as ridging aloft continues to build overhead. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year this weekend through next week, with little signal for any meaningful cooldown or precipitation chances through the end of the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Breezy southerly winds will diminish overnight before increasing again at all sites late Thursday morning. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.