textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Cooler to start the work week thanks to Sunday's late evening FROPA.

- Hot temperatures and increased fire danger will return Tuesday through Thursday before another cold front moves through the region Friday.

- Wetter conditions possible by the start of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Satellite imagery late this evening depicts approaching high clouds across the region as the FROPA earlier this evening remains fixated along the I-20 corridor as analyzed via WTM stations across the regions. As a result, conditions will trend cooler while continuing to remain quiet as the weak post-frontal airmass continues to settle across the region. Surface high pressure will become centered over southern Louisiana by Monday afternoon, with the FA along the westward cusp of the surface high. Thus influencing an upslope component to the winds throughout the day while remaining generally less than 15 mph. Given the easterly component to the winds along with the cooler airmass in place, highs will be much cooler from previous days in the 70s area-wide while high clouds linger for much of the day.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

After a slight reprieve from the hot temperatures, upper level ridging and an associated upper high is expected to develop over the Desert Southwest by Tuesday translating eastward through the end of the week , leading to the return of the record breaking heat across the region. Models depict the 590 dam upper high will become centered over the Big Country by mid-week, with NBM highs suggesting some of the hottest temperatures of the year Wednesday and Thursday, while Thursday looks to be the hottest with highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits across much of the region. Given consistent southwest to westerly flow around the H7 to H8 levels, aiding in WAA into the Panhandle, triple digit heat area-wide does not seem far out of reach. In fact, we may need to adjust NBM temperatures upward in the coming days if the warmer trend continues. Unfortunately, precipitation does not look likely for much of the week, although cannot rule out an isolated (likely high based shower or thunderstorm) developing as perturbations riding down the eastern side of the ridge tries to interact with any precipitation trapped under the ridge. Although this seems more unlikely then likely with the lack there of moisture present across the region. Expect the hot conditions to continue throughout the work-week, ensembles then hint at a potential cool down this weekend as the ridge axis shifts eastward in response to a shortwave translating across Baja California. Depending on the track of this shortwave, we may even see the chance for precipitation return to the area late Sunday although details remain a bit murky to dive into specifics at this time.

Critical fire danger will return Tuesday through Friday as temperatures become unseasonably hot while relative humidities drop into the teens during the afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR and light winds.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.