textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

- Isolated thunderstorms may develop in the eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon and will be quick to exit the forecast area.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday morning) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Upper air analysis this evening depicts a well-defined split-flow regime across the U.S., with a deamplified, subtropical ridge shifting east towards the CWA that is ahead of a positively-tilted trough accompanied by a closed low offshore CA. Farther north, an intense shortwave trough was digging southward over the Canadian Prairie due to an anticyclonically-breaking wave event over the polar latitudes, which will eventually result in the phasing of the split-flow by the tail-end of the short-term period as the shortwave trough to the west begins to pivot inland. At the surface, leeward pressure falls have been maintained as a troughing boundary located west of the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment continues to gradually sharpen. The surface trough connects to a weak cyclone embedded within a quasi-stationary front near ULS, which will maintain the southwesterly breeze throughout the overnight hours, with mild temperatures expected area-wide Monday morning.

After sunrise, the surface trough will begin to propagate eastward into and across W TX while transitioning into a dryline as the subtropical ridge aloft deamplifies. Winds will transition towards the west-southwest behind the dryline beneath a thickening cirrus shield aloft, with deep mixing of the boundary-layer expected across most of the CWA. Despite the high-level overcast, temperatures will warm into middle-upper 80s to near 90 degrees along and west of the I-27 corridor, and into the lower-middle 90s in the Rolling Plains, as the effects of compressional warming from the west-southwesterly breeze are maximized. Dewpoints were lowered from the NBM for this afternoon, as superadiabatic lapse rates are forecast to evolve within the surface-to-3-km layer. Such lapse rates were observed by the 04/00Z RAOB from WFO AMA, along with upstream RAOBs sampling lapse rates between 9.3-9.6 deg C/km at ABQ and EPZ, with a small warm nose/cap observed near 600 mb.

The very warm to even hot surface temperatures, combined with the west-southwesterly winds and deep boundary-layer mixing, will yield RH reductions into the lower-middle teens by peak heating. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains, with near-critical fire weather conditions expected to occur across locales with the strongest winds. A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect between 2-9 PM CDT Monday for those areas. As the dryline propagates into the Rolling Plains during the early afternoon hours, high-based cu will develop along the circulation as moist, isentropic ascent increases within the belt of intensifying mid/high-level flow. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the dryline in the eastern Rolling Plains where strong theta-e advection will exist ahead of the dryline. Storms that develop will move east quickly, with modest, mid-level cooling contributing to MUCAPE values around 750-1,000 J/kg. The well-mixed sub-cloud layer would result in any established storms to pose a low potential for a rogue wind gust >50 mph before exiting the CWA as the dryline sloshes near or east of the 100th meridian. Slight chance PoPs (20-percent) have been manually delineated across the eastern Rolling Plains for the mid-afternoon hours Monday. The dryline will remain stalled near or east of the CWA Monday night, leading to poor RH recovery, with the westerly breeze resulting in warm temperatures area-wide Tuesday morning.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The phasing of the split-flow pattern across the Lower 48 will be well underway Tuesday morning, with the positively-titled trough pivoting onshore southern CA as the closed low embedded within the trough opens. The large-scale wave breaking event will near its completion Tuesday, with the northern-stream jet streak diving southward over the northern Rocky Mountains and maintaining the corridor of subgeostrophic flow through inflection point of the trough as it ejects eastward into the Desert Southwest. Moist, isentropic ascent will be rather intense within the mid-levels, but with theta-e warming with height, the EML will erode all but entirely over the CWA. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front spawned from the northern-stream trough is forecast to stall in the Rolling Plains, with southwesterly winds persisting across all areas along and southwest of the stalling front. Low stratus may accompany the front, with LFCs becoming elevated and no way to lift parcels moist adiabatically. Therefore, a dry forecast is now reflected across the far southern TX PH for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, an elevated fire danger will be possible once again across the Caprock during the afternoon hours, with temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than the previous day, leading to minimum RH values near 20 percent across the pre-frontal airmass amidst breezy, southwesterly winds.

The cold front is forecast to remain quasi-stationary in the Rolling Plains into the nighttime hours Tuesday into Wednesday, and it should eventually lose its frontal characteristics and perhaps transition into a diffuse surface trough as low-level confluence is maintained along the remnant boundary. This will have an effect on the wind direction forecast in the Rolling Plains with respect to whether or not winds remain northeasterly or veered towards the east. The phased trough is forecast to pivot eastward over the Great Plains late-day Wednesday, with a strong, synoptic cold front forecast to move into the CWA Wednesday evening. Low stratus may develop post-frontal passage, with the potential for fog and/or drizzle across the far southern TX PH. The cold front is currently forecast to move south of the CWA before midnight CDT Thursday (07/05Z), but the timing of the front will need refinement over the forthcoming forecast packages. Cooler temperatures will follow into Thursday, with dry and warmer weather heading into next weekend.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Breezy SSW winds will continue through the overnight hours, with a brief period of wind speed shear at KCDS early Monday morning. Surface winds will increase at all sites by late Monday morning, with gusts potentially to 30 kts. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.