textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 8 PM Sunday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon/evening.

- Strong winds remain expected Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM for much of the Caprock.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Thicker cirrus will persist for much of the overnight, keeping temperatures mild until just before sunset when gradual clearing will occur for much of the area. Patchy fog may develop at this time over the far SE Panhandle. A broad trough will track across the Rockies Sunday which will lead to the development of a surface low, moving eastward out of SE Colorado during the day. Resultant stronger downsloping westerly surface winds will occur, particularly on the Caprock. Sustained speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible and a Wind Advisory is in effect for areas west of I-27 from noon until 8 PM. Blowing dust is also possible and may lead to periods of reduced visibility. Use caution if traveling. Highs will reach the 90s and combined with the dry fuels, strong winds, and single digit humidities, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire forecast area.

Winds will diminish after sunset Sunday as the aforementioned through departs eastward. Monday will see highs about 5 degrees lower than Sunday, however still climb to the mid 90s off the Caprock. While winds will not be as strong as Sunday, fuels are still quite low and humidities in the single digits all will again bring critical fire weather conditions and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area during the afternoon/evening hours. Highest winds will occur over the far southern Panhandle, potentially gusting to 40 mph.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Winds will diminish Monday night into Tuesday. Continued downsloping westerly winds and rising upper heights will allow for temperatures to rebound a few degrees from Monday. Elevated fire weather concerns persist with low RHs around 5% on Caprock. The pattern will finally begin to change by Wednesday as a cold front moves through by the morning, leading to an easterly flow. As such, highs will fall into the mid 70s to low 80s, however no precipitation is expected. A cutoff upper low will quickly track inland near the Southern California coast on Thursday. Currently the GFS is a bit faster than the ECMWF, however both solutions do eventually indicate widespread rain (yes rain!) chances to the entire area downstream of the low Thursday and Friday. This would also lead to much cooler temperatures, potentially with highs not making it out of the 50s on Friday. While things could obviously change, confidence is gradually increasing given models have not deviated from this general idea for the last several runs.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR will continue through the rest of this evening before another round of low level moisture arrives overnight. Easterly winds are expected to bring IFR CIGs to KCDS after 08z which will likely persist well into the morning hours Sunday. A shorter period of IFR CIGs also looks likely near sunrise at KPVW, but at this time we expect KLBB to remain VFR overnight through Sunday morning. Lingering sub-VFR CIGs will then dissipate as drier west to southwest winds develop by midday Sunday and become strong Sunday afternoon, especially at KLBB and KPVW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to critical fire weather across the entire area today. Highest winds will occur on the Caprock with westerly sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts to 50 mph possible. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon through 8 PM. Winds will diminish Monday, however low humidities as low as 6% along with very dry fuels will continue. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon/evening.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist area-wide on Tuesday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ021>044.