textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Gradual warming trend Monday through mid to late week.

- Dry weather is expected through mid week with storm chances possible late week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Surface winds have veered to the south in response to a surface lee trough that has developed ahead of the approaching upper trough to our west. Winds are expected to increase to around 15-20 mph this afternoon, highest across our northwestern zones, as a surface low develops along the base of the lee trough over southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico. Winds will remain relatively breezy through the late evening and will gradually decrease through early Monday morning as the surface low dissipates. The upper trough will only be a shadow of its former self Monday, becoming a subtle shortwave as it moves across Arizona and New Mexico. While this may bring some rainfall to New Mexico, it should stay west of the FA. Tonight's lows will be much warmer thanks to elevated surface winds, averaging near 50 area wide.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Gradual warming and dry conditions will dominate through mid to late week. An aggressive upper shortwave will move to just offshore of the Pacific Northwest Monday, becoming a closed H544 low by this point. It will broaden and travel parallel to the West coast through mid week before moving into California by Thursday. Upper ridging will amplify during this time over the central CONUS and will, for a short period, slow and almost stop the eastward progression of the upper low. This upper ridge will allow for a warming trend with highs reaching around 80 by Wednesday. Models remain mixed over the evolution of the upper low by Friday into the weekend. While they are similar with having the bulk of the upper low phasing with the main flow, that is where the similarities end. The GFS holds on to part of the upper low across the Desert Southwest which eventually absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Trudy in the Pacific, leading to potentially heavy rainfall by early next week. The ECMWF loses hope with the upper low and phases the entire low with the main upper flow and tries a scenario similar to the GFS except using a new, fresh upper low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Light southerly winds will continue at all three TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.