textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning across the southwestern South Plains and portions of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler Thursday with chances for precipitation across the Caprock, a few storms may produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

- Warmer temperatures return through the weekend with no precipitation expected.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Latest KLBB radar imagery as of 8 PM CDT displays a line of storms beginning to develop out in eastern New Mexico, which if can stay together, modest steering flow should allow for this activity to reach areas across the Caprock shortly before or around midnight. This activity will likely favor the southwestern South Plains, given more southerly storm motions. Main threats with this activity will be the presence of gusty outflow winds along with the potential for strong winds with stronger storm cores. Although the threat is low, if storms are able to grow upscale through part of the night, we could see a small threat for elevated hail. Despite the inconsistency amongst models in regards to precipitation chances, one thing that has remained consistent through most hi-res guidance is another round of storms tracking into northeastern portions of the FA just before daybreak. Taking a look at WV imagery this evening, a vort max tracking down the eastern periphery of the upper high can be noted spiraling across eastern CO, generating thunderstorms across the area. Most guidance has this developing into a linear system as it surges southward into the area by early morning. If this comes to fruition, locations across the far south- central and southeastern Texas Panhandle could pick up some much needed rainfall. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the 60s to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds.

The upper level high will remain centered to our west, across the AZ/NM state line Thursday, which will allow north-northwest flow to continue, bringing chances for late evening precipitation to the area once again. As far as temperatures go, the easterly flow through much of the low to mid-levels will help keep thickness values lower across the region, which combined with the post-frontal airmass locked in place, will keep afternoon highs in the 90s area- wide. As far as precipitation goes, models diverge with coverage and timing of storms. With some models showing afternoon initiation off lingering outflows off the Caprock, while others depict the only precipitation being from upslope flow driven convection off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico moving into the area by late evening. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, given the monsoonal moisture in place and will be dependent on where any, if any, outflows reside. If none, we can expect another late show with convection moving into the area off the higher terrain. The severe weather threat remains low, although a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out with DCAPE values up to 1200 J/kg.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Unfortunately, the cooler trend through mid-week will be short lived, with warmer and drier conditions returning through the extended forecast period. The upper level ridge and associated 597 dam upper high will expand back eastward through the end of the week, which will spike geopotential heights back above seasonal standards. Thus, resulting in the return of above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to lower triple digits through the weekend. Despite the return of unseasonably warm temperatures, highs will remain below extreme heat thresholds and potentially heat advisory criteria as the upper ridge shifts into the Mississippi River Valley while flattening in response to a deepening shortwave translating through the Intermountain West region. Nonetheless, it will still be hot each day through the extended and heat safety should still be practiced to avoid heat related illnesses.

As far as precipitation goes, chances remain slim, with the best chance for precipitation being late Tuesday evening as flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Attempting to transport subtropical/monsoonal moisture into the region. However, global NWP guidance keeps the flow more southerly if anything, which could limit moisture return into the region. Despite this, ensembles guidance is still hinting at at least isolated to scattered activity across the Caprock region as disturbances ripple through the main flow and into the area Tuesday evening. Will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs at this time, although they may need be altered in the coming days as we get a better grasp on the set up.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A broken line of storms was currently approaching the KLBB terminal but has also been weakening as it moves eastward. The most significant impact will be an abrupt wind shift to the west at 20-30kt as a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves through the terminal just prior to 06Z. Although thunder is only occasionally being reported, there may be a few lightning strikes in vicinity of the terminal. Another complex of storms was moving out of southeastern Colorado and may affect KCDS around 10-12Z but confidence is low in this occurrence. Otherwise, additional thunderstorms will be possible around this time tomorrow at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.