textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- There is an elevated fire danger for the Caprock and southern Rolling Plains through this evening.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect area-wide Sunday, and will be accompanied by a critical fire danger and widespread blowing dust.

- Very cold temperatures Monday morning will be followed by the return of much warmer weather by mid-week and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

17Z upper air analysis depicts an amplifying, positively-tilted trough emerging over the northern Rocky Mountains, with a broader belt of cyclonic flow expanding eastward into the southern Great Plains. Perturbations embedded within the synoptic-scale flow have generated bands of orographically-induced cirrus off the central and southern Rocky Mountains, with cirrostratus expected to increase in coverage later this evening as the upstream shortwave trough digs into the central Rocky Mountains. A 250 mb jet streak approaching 150 kt was trailing the backside of the amplifying shortwave trough, with 90 kt analyzed at 500 mb per the 12Z SLE RAOB. The 12Z RAOBs launched across the southern Great Plains indicated geopotential height tendencies that were slightly negative due to a low-amplitude trough in the mid-levels that was pivoting over the State of TX, and has maintained the weak cyclogenesis in the Rolling Plains. As the trough continues to amplify and dig into the southern Great Plains over the next 18-24 hours, it will begin to become neutrally-tilted, with the respective jetlets at 250 mb and 500 mb intensifying to near 175 kt and 100 kt, respectively, upstream of its base. A High Wind event is expected for the entire CWA Sunday.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was analyzed on WTM data near CDS, with a trough extending southward towards SNK that was beginning to transition into a dryline based on an increase in differential mixing on the west side of the mesoscale boundary. Winds were veered towards the west on the Caprock, where particularly deep mixing of the PBL has long been underway, with RH already below 10-percent for some locales west of I-27/HWY-87. The 12Z RAOB from WFO MAF sampled a residual-layer in the mid-levels, with an inversion near 600 mb a result of the subtle trough that pivoted over W TX at the time the balloon was launched. PBL heights will soar beyond 500 mb this afternoon, and when combined with the westerly breeze, RH reductions will fall as low as 5 percent (locally lower), especially on the Caprock. An elevated fire danger remains intact through sunset for the Caprock and the southern Rolling Plains. Record highs remain forecast this afternoon, primarily at LBB, with highs breaching 90 degrees for the southern half of the CWA.

Large-scale, leeward pressure falls will gradually steepen overnight in response to cyclogenesis in the northwestern Great Plains, which will maintain the westerly breeze while the dryline remains stalled near the 100th meridian. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be mild for most locations, with a pre-frontal surface trough expected to slosh southward into the CWA shortly after sunrise and veer winds towards the northwest while nearing advisory-level. The shortwave trough will eject into the central Great Plains prior to 18Z Sunday, with high confidence in a strong, steeply sloped cold front expected to blast through the CWA during the late-morning hours. An intense isallobaric response will be generated by the rapidly deepening cyclone rotating quickly across the central Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest, with the cyclone nearing 988 mb Sunday morning as it rotates into the Corn Belt. This, combined with geopotential height falls on the order of 100 m/12 hr in the TX PH, will result in post-frontal pressure rises near or in excess of 12 mb/3 hr, with pressure tendencies slow to neutralize throughout the day Sunday due to the maintenance of the large-scale, isallobaric response as the system evolves into a longwave trough.

Winds were raised to align with the NBM 95th percentile, with the wind gust factor reraised to 55 kt (65 mph). Sustained, northerly winds between 35-45 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph, are expected across the entire CWA Sunday, along with much cooler temperatures compared to what was indicated in the previous forecasts. Despite the marginal component of RH via the strong CAA, a critical fire danger is expected due to the high winds. Highs are now forecast to range from the middle 50s across the far southern TX PH to the upper 60s in the southern South and Rolling Plains, with highs peaking prior to the arrival of the front. Widespread blowing dust may lead to potentially significant reductions in visibility. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire forecast area between 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect for the entire forecast area between 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Post-frontal winds will diminish quickly late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, with a polar surface high expected to settle into W TX during this time. Very cold temperatures are forecast, with lows in the middle teens across the northwestern zones while remaining in the middle 20s for areas southeast of a line from Denver City to Memphis. Due to the post-frontal high becoming centered in W TX, winds will become light and variable before dawn Monday. Highs will slowly rebound into the lower 50s Monday, followed by a substantial warm-up by the middle of the week and beyond as an anomalous ridge forms over the Desert Southwest. Very warm to even hot temperatures are forecast by the end of the week, with PoPs remaining NIL through the end of the forecast period.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR until late Sunday morning when widespread BLDU and high winds will cause vis reductions to MVFR or lower. LLWS is more likely after midnight at all terminals under a 45-50 knot low-level jet before waning an hour or so after sunrise. Initially breezy NW winds Sunday morning give way to strong N winds with FROPA from 14-16Z. Frequent gusts around 50 knots are likely at all sites along with BLDU.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A surface low is located in the Rolling Plains near Childress, with a dryline extending south closer to the 100th meridian. Winds were variable in direction within close proximity to the surface low, but prevail out of the west otherwise. Record high temperatures remain expected this afternoon, and despite the westerly breeze remaining light, an elevated fire danger will continue for the Caprock and the southern Rolling Plains as RH minima craters to near 5 percent. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for those areas until 8 PM CDT.

Westerly winds will become increasingly breezy throughout the night ahead of an intensifying storm system. RH recovery will be poor due to the westerly breeze, or between 25-30 percent. Winds will then transition towards the northwest after sunrise as a pre-frontal surface boundary moves into the forecast area. A strong cold front will then blast through W TX prior to noontime, with very strong winds expected immediately following the front. Winds will switch to the north post-frontal passage, with sustained winds between 35-45 mph and gusts up to 65 mph expected. Widespread blowing dust is also expected. While temperatures are forecast to be much cooler Sunday, which will keep RH reductions in check, the high winds will result in a critical fire danger for all of W TX. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire forecast area between 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is also in effect for the entire forecast area between 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday. Winds will begin to transition towards the northeast after sunset Sunday while diminishing quickly heading into the overnight hours. Light and variable winds are forecast by Monday morning as a polar surface high pressure system rotates into W TX, with very cold temperatures.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.