textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Warm through the weekend, with a slight chance for showers Saturday evening across the South Plains.

- Additional chances for showers return Monday and Tuesday of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast area will find itself sandwiched between two systems, as an upper level low translates through the northeast and an cutoff low develops over Baja Mexico. Locally, we will remain under the influence of the amplified upper ridge that stretches into the Central Plains. Therefore, not much to report weather wise across our area with the main theme being mild temperatures and short window of opportunity for isolated rain showers towards the end of the period. Despite the weak front that moved through the area this morning, increased thickness and heights across the region will lead to the warm up of highs into the 70s to near 80 degrees as abundant sunshine prevails. Tonight, quiet conditions will continue as we drop into the 30s and 40s as winds attempt to veer out of the south- southeast. The exception will be for areas off the Caprock where wind speeds will likely remain northerly as a backdoor front attempts to creep into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle early Saturday morning. Overall, this front will have very little influence for temperatures Saturday afternoon across the area with highs still expected in the 70s for most. Went ahead and nudged slightly cooler from the NBM for areas off the Caprock to account for the influence of the front, with highs in the upper 60s.

After a relatively dry week, precipitation chances will return to portions of the South Plains late Saturday as the cutoff low tracks into the southern Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, a weak perturbation tracking through the flow into the region will interact with the increased mid-level moisture being advected into the region via southwest flow aloft. As a result, isolated rain showers will be possible beginning Saturday evening tracking northwest across the South Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Fairly quite conditions are expected through the long-term forecast package as the FA generally remains under the influence of the H5 upper ridge. The exception will be Sunday through Monday as the cutoff low, currently over Baja Mexico, translates eastward through Central Mexico through the weekend. Global models continue to portray a more southward track compared to previous runs earlier this week, depicting the closed low to become an open wave feature as it centers itself near the Hill Country. If this southern track comes to fruition, we will likely see limited chances for PoPs as the main forcing for ascent and moisture remains confined to areas south of the FA. NBM seems to be catching on with this solution, coming in with PoPs around 30% to 40%, although that seems a bit agressive given the evolving southern track by models. Went ahead and confined PoPs to slight chance (20%) to chance (30), generally across the southern half of the FA. As this event gets closer, coverage and chance of PoPs may need to be altered even lower to account for the more southern solution being provided. As for temperatures, chances for precipitation and the slight decrease in heights will keep highs a few degrees cooler in the upper 60s to upper 70s early next week.

Thereafter, dry and quiet conditions are expected as an upper level ridge moves in from the west. Resulting in daily slight increases in thickness and height values allowing for temperatures to remain steady in the 70s through Thursday. Towards the end of next week, ensemble guidance hints at a shortwave feature rounding the southern periphery of the closed low over the NE tracking through the Great Plains, swinging a cold front into the region late Thursday into Friday. Not only could this system bring cooler air back into the region, but also hints at the potential for our next big precipitation event. Considering this is several days away and models are a bit all over the place, we will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs and highs in the 60s for Friday until we see a better consensus in guidance in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A weak cold front will move through the area this afternoon shifting light winds to the northeast. Winds will continue to shift around to the southeast tonight and on Saturday but speeds will be light. There is a small chance of low CIGS and visbys near KCDS on Saturday morning around daybreak but chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.