textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Much cooler and quieter Monday under mostly cloudy skies.

- Considerably warmer after Tuesday, including record high potential by late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Chilly surface ridging continues building into the region late tonight on much lighter northerly winds. Despite confluent upper flow on the backside of a vigorous trough to our east, infrared satellite imagery shows a scattering of thicker cirriform clouds in the exit region of a 170-knot H3 jet nosing south across the Texas Panhandle. As this jet translates into Oklahoma by daybreak, a weaker shortwave trough in NW flow will rotate toward the region while bringing sufficient Pacific moisture for ample mid and high clouds. After chilly lows in the teens and 20s, the thicker cloud canopy on Monday will lock in the chill thereby capping highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Clear skies return Monday night on the heels of this lesser trough; however, low temperatures wont be as nippy as winds veer southwest overnight behind the cool surface high.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

After slightly milder temperatures Tuesday thanks to lee troughing and occasionally breezy SW winds in the afternoon, the remainder of the week will be very warm (at times hot) as an anomalously strong upper high over southern California expands eastward. An associated dome of summer-like temperatures, with 700 mb values rising to 10- 13C by late week, sets the stage for multiple days of record highs beginning Thursday. The current forecast has much of the forecast area topping out in the mid and upper 90s from Thursday through Saturday which may throw many daily record highs out the door. These records are listed in the climate section at the end of this AFD. The upper high and its associated ridge gradually decay by Sunday as a more progressive and zonal flow erases the previously amplified pattern dominating the Lower 48.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR and light winds will continue.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Record highs are at risk later this week. The latest forecast highs and records are as follows:

LUBBOCK CHILDRESS fcst (record) fcst (record)

Wed, 3/18: 86 (88) 87 (91)

Thu, 3/19: 92 (89) 94 (92)

Fri, 3/20: 96 (93) 97 (100)

Sat, 3/21: 97 (93) 99 (98)

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.