textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Continued warm into the weekend until a cooldown on Monday.

- Storm chances return Friday evening near the NM border, then envelop the forecast area from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

We will see one final dry day before precipitation chances increase beginning on Friday. For today, an upper level ridge currently centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley will slowly move westward and de-amplify. Thickness/heights will remain roughly the same as yesterday but with less cloud cover, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on the caprock. Areas off the caprock will continue to see temperatures near and above 100 degrees F. A surface pressure trough will be positioned in eastern New Mexico this afternoon with weak low level convergence within this surface trough. However, warmer air aloft will create capping likely preventing any convective development in West Texas with all convective activity located in eastern New Mexico. The upper level ridge will park near the Arklatex on Friday with further de-amplification as a number of short wave troughs move across the Central Plains. A slight increase in the southwest flow aloft will occur on Friday with cyclonic flow increasing over the southwestern CONUS. An increase in the large scale ascent will occur through the afternoon as a short wave trough moves northeastward across New Mexico. The surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico will strengthen creating more low level convergence beneath this larger scale ascent. Convective activity is therefore expected to initiate in eastern New Mexico and drift into the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle late Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Capping will still be in place overhead on Friday afternoon so activity is expected to be somewhat limited on the Texas side of the Texas/New Mexico state line. Warm surface temperatures will lead to high cloud bases and a strong wind threat from any storms that develop.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

As an upper low over northern California churns slowly east on Friday, deeper southwest flow over the Desert Southwest will carry a shortwave trough across New Mexico. This process will send a band of monsoon moisture toward the TX/NM border by the evening complete with some low PoPs. These rain chances improve considerably by Saturday afternoon and especially the evening as the axis of moisture overspreads the Caprock within broad troughing. This abundance of background ascent with PWAT anomalies pushing +0.8" and potential for training precip in deep SW flow suggests some heavy rain and flooding could redevelop and continue overnight. Additional deep convection is possible Sunday, but this time favoring areas off the Caprock along and east of the upper trough axis. Models have sadly rejected a cold front for Sunday, so this keeps highs well above normal all weekend. Provided this cold front reaches our area on Monday, more PoPs are justified even with weak ridging aloft on the heels of Sunday's trough. The upper flow then backs more southwesterly as the monsoonal fetch deepens courtesy of a low/trough over SOCAL. Ensembles favor a cool and wet pattern through Wednesday, although there is concern for much of this moisture to hang up farther west within deeper meridional flow. This implies PoPs in later forecasts may exhibit a sharper gradient from W-E either in or somewhere near our forecast area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR with steady southerly winds through Friday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.