textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Rain chances are lower than previously anticipated with the best chances across the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains.

- Cooler temperatures Friday, before warmer and drier conditions this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A cutoff upper low is quickly tracking over northwestern Mexico. An associated fetch of Pacific moisture is seen on water vapor overspreading the entire area. However, much of the current rainfall remains south of the CWA. This will be the overall trend for the duration of the system. As the aforementioned low continues to track eastward, it will gradually weaken and become more absorbed into the main flow pattern as an open wave. Given this track, the western South Plains and far SW Texas Panhandle will see the initial shot of rainfall Friday morning while the low is south of the AZ/NM border and the moisture fetch downstream of the trough axis is oriented more out of the SW. The southern South and Rolling Plains will see most rainfall late-morning through afternoon. CAMs and synoptic models are in fairly good consensus at this point of at least the more significant QPF not making it much further, with the far SE Panhandle likely not seeing much of anything. Total amounts remain somewhat tricky, however as mentioned, highest amounts are expected across western and southern areas, at around 1 inch with localized higher amounts possible. Amounts will lessen to the north and east. Current model averages for Lubbock are around 0.3", however that is even becoming more optimistic at this point. High temperatures will be significantly below normal, remaining in the low-to-mid 50s. Instability will be lacking and although thunderstorms will not be completely out of the question, any that develop will be isolated and severe weather is not expected. Skies will clear overnight Friday into Saturday as the system departs to the east. Highs on Saturday will recover into the low 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies with light winds.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A more zonal flow pattern aloft will return by Sunday afternoon. Combined with SW surface winds, temperatures will return generally into the mid-to-upper 70s. Warm and dry conditions will persist Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday will also see breezy westerly winds. A few weak shortwaves will propagate through the flow, however will not trigger anything in the way of convection. Winds will shift to the NW on Wednesday behind a weak cold front, bringing temperatures down around 5-8 degrees. A cutoff upper low will track into the Desert Southwest as well on Wednesday, however will weaken significantly into Thursday and Friday. As such, confidence remains low at this point for much in the way of thunderstorms. Temperatures should remain pleasant in the mid 70s to low 80s through the end of the week with winds further veering eastward by Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Chances of IFR CIGS are becoming increasingly unlikely this morning as an upper level storm system approaches the area. CIGS are likely to remain MVFR through the morning at KLBB and KPVW before returning to VFR this afternoon. A chance of rain this morning and afternoon may allow CIGS/visbys to bounce around a bit between MVFR and VFR.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.