textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 550 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms expected mainly off the Caprock Thursday morning and across the entire area Thursday evening.

- Slightly cooler temperatures along with chances of showers and thunderstorms remain expected this weekend, again mainly off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

An upper shortwave overnight will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly off the eastern Caprock. Although severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible, particularly if any training storms occur. Otherwise, low cloud cover should prevail with a moist SE surface flow continuing over the entire area and morning lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Forcing will weaken behind the aforementioned shortwave and the rain/clouds should help to keep everything stabilized at least through the Tuesday afternoon hours. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, although a few peaks of sun are possible. Highs will warm slightly from Tuesday, reaching the mid 70s in most areas. Weak shortwaves will redevelop by the early evening hours and CAMs indicate a potential line of storms tracking west to east across the area through the evening. Severe parameters are not overly impressive and forcing in generally weak in the absence of a significant low-level jet. Thus although severe weather cannot completely be ruled out, locally heavy rain and strong winds again remain the greatest threat. Storms look to generally weaken as they make their way off the Caprock.

Skies will gradually clear on Friday. Lower surface pressure will develop over CO/NM through the day. Pressure will remain relatively lower off to our east, however it should be enough to turn winds more due southerly across most of the area. Highs on the Caprock will be significantly warmer than Thursday, reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. Southeast flow will likely persist farther away from the aforementioned low center, especially over the far SE Panhandle. This combined with a weak upper wave will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms to this area during the evening hours. Otherwise areas elsewhere should see a mostly warmer and quiet day.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A cold front early Saturday morning will bring light easterly winds during the day. Temperatures will fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Much of the day should remain quiet under partly cloudy skies. A shallow upper trough will track across the Great Plains during the early evening hours. Models continue to indicate convection developing generally off the Caprock persisting into Sunday morning. Rain will end and the daytime hours Sunday should be similar to Saturday. An upper low will gradually become closed and cutoff to our east Sunday evening. Embedded waves propagating along its periphery will again drive potential shower and thunderstorm activity off the Caprock. After a lull on Monday, a broad trough will move across the western US and an active pattern may return into mid-next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

IFR CIGs will remain through mid to late morning before giving way to MVFR and eventually VFR by 18Z. Convection remains on track for PVW and LBB between 00Z and 04Z. Wind gusts up to 50 knots and hail up to one inch in diameter will be the primary hazards with convection. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at LBB and PVW after 04Z when thunderstorms have cleared those terminals. There is still uncertainty if CDS will see thunderstorms after 06Z. MVFR CIGs should move over CDS by midnight with the potential that CIGs could drop to IFR once again by 09Z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.