textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Warm and breezy with critical fire danger for both today and Friday afternoon.

- A few storms are possible this evening and Friday night off the Caprock.

- A strong cold front will bring windy conditions Friday night and much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Warm and breezy conditions are again expected for the rest of this afternoon. Extremely deep boundary layer mixing will take place this afternoon with mixing up to around 600mb. Fortunately, winds near the top of the boundary layer are only on the order of 20-30kt. Therefore, surface winds are not expected to get out of hand. The other issue today will be the potential for thunderstorms early this evening over the southern Rolling Plains. Conditions are not that impressive for convective initiation. A sharp trough moving across the Intermountain West today and tonight will allow winds aloft to back to the southwest. This will draw up low level moisture beginning late this afternoon into the early evening. Heights will be nearly neutral this afternoon. Additionally, a 100kt jet streak moving into the southwestern US will likely be too far west to generate any appreciable large scale ascent. Isentropic ascent will be the primary method of lift late this afternoon into the evening. However, the moisture return will be fairly shallow with this lift above the shallow moisture. Despite warming mid-level temperatures, instability values will be impressive with mixed layer instability progged between 2500 and 3000 J/kg. If storms were to develop, they would have the potential to become severe with large hail the primary threat but chances are low given the above reasoning.

This low level moisture is expected to make its way back onto the caprock and into eastern New Mexico by sunrise Friday morning. But a dryline will quickly mix eastward with a fast moving upper trough during the day on Friday. Winds aloft will be on the increase with the tail end of the upper trough draped across New Mexico into northern Mexico. Very deep boundary layer mixing will again occur on Friday but with an increase of the winds within this layer. These downsloping winds will bring a further increase in temperatures with 90s off the caprock although still a few degrees shy of record values.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The aforementioned short wave trough will send a very strong cold front through the region Friday evening. Guidance is currently indicating 3 hour pressure rises on the order of an impressive 10-15 mb. This may very likely bring advisory level winds for a brief period immediately after the passage of the front. Winds will slowly weaken Saturday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes and a surface ridge oozes into the area. Thunderstorms may be possible on the leading edge of the front closer to the deeper moisture off the caprock. These chances will be low and short lived with this fast moving front. Much cooler temperatures are then expected for the weekend into Monday as this surface ridge dominates the area. Return flow will resume on Monday with a sloshing dryline for much of next week. A few weak short wave troughs may undercut an upper level ridge over the central US. This may bring low storm chances along the dryline for some afternoons.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042.