textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through next week.

- Hot temperatures continue through next week with a slight cool down beginning Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

After a quiet and pleasant Tuesday, a similar overnight period is expected. Current surface observations show light to moderate southeasterly winds. These upslope winds are causing higher terrain thunderstorms to develop across northeastern NM. However, these storms are not expected to reach our area. A lee surface trough currently across CO is expected to shift to the east by early Wednesday morning. This will result in shifting the winds to the southwest. Convergence along the southern boundary of the surface trough across the Texas Panhandle could result in isolated rain showers across northern zones of the CWA early in the morning. At the moment, chances for these rain showers are low, however cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the night will be mild with lows in the upper 60s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Wednesday will be very similar to today with dry conditions and hot temperatures. Upper ridging that expanded across the region today will prevail through Wednesday. Thickness increases due to the ridge will slightly warm temperatures Wednesday with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. Early Wednesday morning, the aforementioned surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy southwesterly winds through the early afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the south to southeast later in the afternoon after the surface trough deamplifies and a secondary lee surface trough develops across southern CO and northern NM. Subsidence below the ridging will keep conditions dry. Southeasterly upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across northern NM. Northwesterly flow from the upper pattern will help scattered thunderstorms track to the southeast. CAMs are indicating these storms will die off before reaching our CWA border, however there is a low chance for these storms to sustain themselves and make their way into our northwestern corner. If this does occur, they are expected to be sub-severe and short-lived.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The main focus of the long term is hot temperatures and daily storm chances. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will slightly retreat Thursday, however slight thickness increases and southerly surface flow will bring hot temperatures again. Highs in the upper 90s are expected across the Caprock and triple digits off the Caprock. A passing upper embedded shortwave will aide in thunderstorm chances thursday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM and shift southeast with the aide of upper northwesterly flow, however models indicate storms will reach the far southern Texas Panhandle during the evening before quickly dying out. The rest of the region is expected to remain dry. A similar set up is expected Friday, however with better surface moisture, we will see higher and more coverage thunderstorm chances. The upper ridging will slightly shift north although still sitting across southwestern CONUS. Another upper embedded shortwave will pass over NM and the Texas Panhandle. This will result in thunderstorms developing to the north and east of the forecast area before expanding into our region. Better coverage is expected Friday with thunderstorm chances across much of the caprock and northern portions off the Caprock. Over the weekend and the beginning of next week, the upper ridging will remain across southwestern CONUS, however is expected to expand northward across the Rockies while a very positively tilted upper trough sits across southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly flow with this regime and multiple passing shortwaves with bring daily thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. We will see upper 90s to lower 10s again on Friday and Saturday. The upper pattern change as well as daily precipitation chances will bring a slight cool down next week, however highs still remain in the 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

00Z TAFs VFR through period. Generally clear skies with a few afternoon cumulus will prevail along with light SE breezes veering SSW after 12Z/08. JW

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.