textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Dangerous triple digit heat will return this week, initially off the Caprock Tuesday, then expanding westward to the entire area mid-late week.

- Near average mid-July highs, in the 90s, will occur on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday afternoon and evening was substantially muted in comparison to 24 hours prior. Even so, a few locations did see brief downpours earlier, though the convection within the CWA had largely diminished with the setting sun. However, outflow from one small complex of storms that raced northward from the I-20 Corridor near Colorado City earlier, has triggered isolated convection across our far southeast zones late this evening (around Jayton as of 0330Z). Given the cooling/stabilizing nocturnal boundary layer, this activity is expected to diminish fairly quickly. Otherwise, a moist and seasonably cool overnight, with light southerly breezes, will prevail.

Monday will be the transition day between our recent "cool", moist and occasionally stormy stretch to a much hotter and drier pattern. The culprit driving the change is an upper high currently centered over the central Rockies. Flow around the sprawling ridge will carry the mid-level weakness and deeper tropospheric moisture that has been supplying our recent rain/storm chances farther westward, into Far West Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Mexico. Our western counties could reside just close enough to the departing weakness/moisture to experience a rogue shower or storm Monday afternoon/evening, though most NWP is not very optimistic about this possibility. Even if a little deep moist convection can get going within the CWA, its coverage will likely be under 10%. Instead, the main story will be the warming trend, as highs will jump to around mid-July averages (low to mid-90s on the Caprock and mid-upper 90s in the Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle). A mild and dry night will follow with lows ranging from the mid-60s near the TX/NM line to the mid-70s off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

*** PROLONGED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ***

The upper high will take full control of the region as it noses into the central and southern High Plains on Tuesday. As this happens, any rain chances will evaporate as temperatures soar. The mid-level high is progged to become centered squarely over the Texas Panhandle and Red River Valley by mid-week, with a 5960+ m 500 mb height projected. The high will linger over the southern High Plains through late week, though it may eventually be nudged westward in response to a couple of shortwaves tracking over the top of the ridge. As this occurs, the center of the ridge may shift toward the Four Corners this weekend. Depending how far west the ridge shifts, West Texas could potentially find itself under weak northerly flow on the east side of the ridge, though the ECMWF is less encouraging, maintaining the eastern extent of the ridge over northwest Texas until late weekend. Should the eastern flank of the ridge breakdown quicker, it would open the door for recycled monsoon moisture and perhaps a weak front to edge into the region, providing minor cooling and a chance of thunderstorms as early as Friday evening.

Regardless, until then the heat will be the theme through at least Friday. The current forecast shows triple digit highs (100-103 degrees) off the Caprock starting Tuesday afternoon, increasing to near or above 105 degrees there by Thursday and Friday. On the Caprock the trend will be the same, though about 3-6 degrees "cooler" depending on the location/elevation. The current forecast temperatures could even be a couple of degrees too low if the 30-35C 850 mb temperatures progged by some medium range guidance comes to fruition.

Low temperatures will follow a similar upward trend to the daytime highs, residing mostly in the 70s, with even a few low 80s possible off the Caprock in the later half of the week. The combination of hot days and warm nights will be dangerous for those without access to cooling and proper hydration. Heat-related highlights are likely for a good chunk of the FA later this week, potentially lingering into the weekend if the upper ridge is slow to ease westward.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.