textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Record highs likely Saturday along with an elevated fire risk.

- High winds for Sunday, blowing dust, and critical fire concerns.

- Chilly Monday ahead of a rapid warmup with highs soaring into the 80s and 90s by Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light ENE winds were observed across the region at 10 PM on the heels of a decaying backdoor front. This boundary will wash out overnight in advance of a developing lee trough for Saturday underneath deepening westerly flow. The westerly flow will advect an even warmer and drier layer from 850700 mb our way, fostering deeper mixing for Saturday. With compressional warming via downslope flow, highs should easily reach record territory at Lubbock, where the old record of 86 should be smashed by highs around 90. Off the Caprock meanwhile, the drier west winds along a pseudo-dryline are forecast to fall short of Childress and the northern Rolling Plains, so high temperatures there are likely to be curbed somewhat given more backed/southerly winds.

The warmth carries into Saturday night as the lee trough deepens while sliding east through the forecast area courtesy of hefty cyclogenesis from northeast CO into southern NE. This will keep WSW winds around 15 mph and lows primarily in the 50s before a big shock arrives Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Dawn breaks Sunday morning with a vigorous upper trough digging into the southern Great Plains ahead of a 160-knot H3 jet. As a surface cyclone speeds off to northern Illinois by the afternoon, the door will be open for a strong cold front to plunge south Sunday morning ahead of robust pressure rises reaching 1214 mb in 3 hours and very dry air with dewpoints in the single digits.

Although CAA will be well underway by midday, even lower dewpoints and steeper lapse rates should facilitate deep mixing to around H7 where a 5060 knot jet is forecast to overspread the eastern TX PH into the Rolling Plains by late afternoon. Closer to the TX-NM state line, winds at the top of the mixing layer drop off quite markedly (2030 knots at H7) by Sunday afternoon, and this should temper gusts and even ease the blowing dust threat; however, a solid 3040 knots at 850 mb will remain, which looks sufficient for sustained winds to hover near or at high wind criteria for most of the afternoon.

Interestingly, this area from the South Plains to the NM border could see its highest wind threat develop earlier in the morning preceding FROPA when a 4550 knot northwesterly LLJ will be precariously positioned for easy mixing around 15Z before this jet declines later in the morning. High temperatures were pulled much lower than the NBM to better align with cooler MOS numbers, especially over the northern half of the forecast area.

As mixing wanes Sunday night, the surface pressure gradient will remain enhanced enough for 2030 mph north winds through midnight until a surface high sweeps in during the pre-dawn hours with light winds and the coldest lows in weeks. NBM lows in the teens and 20s were left intact as there is growing support for thick high cloud development toward daybreak that should thwart even stronger radiational cooling. These clouds only expand and deepen through the day on Monday, keeping highs only in the lower 50s before clearing out Monday night ahead of milder SW breezes.

The upper-air pattern remains amplified for the remainder of the week with anomalous ridging over the western CONUS and troughing farther east. Global models remain steady in progging a ~595-dam 500- mb high over SOCAL by Tuesday that slowly nudges into the Desert Southwest while weakening by late in the week. Despite this weakening trend to the tall anticyclone, a considerable dome of warm air will spread our way beginning Wednesday when highs in the 80s give way to low-to-mid 90s for the remainder of the week, which could set a streak of record highs in Lubbock and Childress. Fortunately, lee troughing will be suppressed under this weaker NW flow aloft, so winds should stay on the tame side for a change.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR and generally light winds will continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light westerly winds Saturday morning will pick up to around 15 mph by early afternoon over the southwest South Plains before expanding across much of the Caprock by late afternoon. Combined with record heat and minimum RH values around 5 percent, these low-end breezy winds will support an elevated threat for fire growth. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is valid from 1 PM until 8 PM Saturday for much of the South Plains and the far SW TX Panhandle.

Following poor RH recoveries in the 20s Sunday morning, strong NW winds of 30 to 40 mph (locally higher) should develop soon after daybreak ahead of a strong cold front later in the morning. North winds following the front will hover between 35 and 45 mph with gusts of 60 to 65 mph at times. Despite cooler temperatures, dry air behind the front will result in minimum RH values in the teens, resulting in widespread critical fire weather. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Sunday morning through the early evening, and this will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning in later forecasts.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.