textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible across the Rolling Plains through the predawn hours Wednesday. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday, mainly along and east of I-27.

- Generally dry Friday through the weekend, with precipitation chances returning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a vorticity lobe was embedded within a southern-stream, shortwave trough emerging over the central Rocky Mountains and into the western High Plains. Moist, isentropic ascent associated with the warm-conveyor continues to advect over W TX, with webcams prior sunset showing a couple of patches of shallow, mid-level ACCAS and stunted turrets that were advecting towards the northeast over LBB. Mixed-layer theta-e advection on the 04/00Z RAOBs launched from WFOs ABQ, AMA, EPZ, and MAF, was particularly well-defined, with superadiabatic lapse rates within the 0-3-km layer observed at ABQ and EPZ. Theta-e advection in the lowest 100 mb was eroded by the passage of the synoptic cold front, but above the shallow airmass, the lapse rates were dry adiabatic. Farther east into the moist sector, the RAOBs from FWD and OUN sampled an elevated mixed layer of about 1,000-1,500 J/kg, with the western edge of the EML eclipsing the edge of the Caprock per recent SPC mesoscale analysis. The RAP estimates of where the edge of the CAPE gradient is on par with the earlier cloud observations, in addition to the neighboring RAOBs at AMA and MAF. Therefore, the low PoPs in the Rolling Plains are being maintained through the predawn hours, as a stray, elevated thunderstorm or two will be possible as parcels advect into the modest instability within the warm-conveyor. A rogue hailstone of up to 1.0" in diameter will be the primary hazard with the elevated storms tonight, with storms moving at a quick pace.

At the surface, the synoptic cold front was located along a line from Friona-to-PVW-to-Guthrie, with brisk, northeasterly winds at around 15-25 mph in its wake. The theta-e/moist tongue continues to narrow, and the mesonet observations of the 330-335 K corridor matches the western edge of the instability gradient estimated by the RAP analysis. The cold front will exit the CWA near 04/06Z (or midnight CST), with post-frontal winds eventually backing northward throughout the morning as the surface high rotates into W TX. Low stratus is forecast to evolve overnight, with the cloud deck now forecast to expand across most of the Caprock. This stratus deck should be thin and confined to the top of the post-frontal airmass, as the southwesterly flow and drier air aloft results in the entrainment of clouds.

The stratus deck is forecast to begin eroding by the late-morning hours Wednesday across the Caprock, with clouds lingering in the Rolling Plains through most of the day Wednesday. As stated in the previous forecast, much cooler temperatures are expected today, especially in the Rolling Plains, due to the slow recovery of the boundary-layer. PoPs have been removed across the eastern zones Wednesday afternoon, as DPVA is forecast to shift east of the 100th meridian in tandem with the ejection of the shortwave trough over the central Great Plains. Failed attempts of convection will most certainly be a possibility due to the entrainment of parcels in the drier air aloft, especially as the mid-levels warm slightly on the backside of the departing trough. This would lead to some turkey towers, but thunderstorms are no longer forecast Wednesday afternoon and night across the Rolling Plains. Winds will begin to transition to the southeast Wednesday night as the surface high rotates off to the east, with return flow establishing area-wide Thursday morning.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A deep upper trough will move over the Intermountain West through the day Thursday with a closed low eventually becoming cutoff near the Rockies. A ~994 mb surface low will develop over eastern Colorado and lead to breezy southerly winds near 20 mph across the area. Both Gulf and Pacific moisture will be advected into the region, bringing humidities higher and any elevated fire weather concerns will be confined to the TX/NM border. The main concern for the day remains the severe weather potential. Significant moisture will be present in the morning in a SE surface flow and widespread fog and low stratus will be expected. The aforementioned trough will move closer to the area during the day, along with a low-level jet. By mid-afternoon, the dryline will be roughly along the US-385 corridor which is roughly where the first storms would develop. Given the orientation of the aforementioned trough and jet, along with the most favorable moisture parameters with dewpoints in the mid 50s through the evening, the greatest chance of severe thunderstorms will be along and east of I-27 in the evening particularly under a shortwave ahead of the main trough. Main threats include large hail and strong winds. Storms should mostly depart the area after midnight.

Friday will see very dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the system. Humidities will fall into the single digits for much of the area. Highest SW winds sustained near 20 mph are expected on the Caprock and given that this is the most likely region to remain at least mostly storm-free from Thursday, elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions are expected. NBM PoPs continue to insist on precipitation chances across a large portion of the Rolling Plains late Friday through Sunday and then overspread the entire CWA by early next week. Per usual, this is rather optimistic as a cool, dry airmass looks to hold in place over the entire area through the day and synoptic guidance only clips the southern Rolling Plains with precipitation late Saturday. A strong upper low will split from the main flow and stall off the Baja California coast, remaining there all weekend. Once it finally starts to move by Monday it will drive more SW flow and consequently Pacific moisture into the region, resulting in more widespread rain chances through mid-next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

The northeasterly breeze will remain intact through the predawn hours Wednesday, and gradually transition to the north near and after sunrise at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. MVFR stratus is expected at all terminals during the early morning hours, with stratus lifting to VFR near 18Z at KLBB and KPVW, and closer to 20Z at KCDS. VFR will prevail thereafter, with winds becoming southeast Wednesday night at all terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.