textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- A warming will continue through Thursday, with record breaking heat possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Critical fire danger possible Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

- Cooler this weekend following a cold front early Friday morning with precipitation chances returning late Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Not much excitement for today and Wednesday's forecast. Remnants of Sunday's cold front are now gone. A surface lee trough has brought winds to the south. This, along with increasing thicknesses from the building upper high over the Desert Southwest, will allow highs to warm into the 80s and 90s this afternoon. This will also help to keep overnight lows 5-10 degrees warmer than what was observed this morning. The upper high will begin progressing eastward this evening through Wednesday, gradually increasing overhead thicknesses. This will allow for an even warmer Wednesday with highs averaging in the mid 90s area wide. A slightly increased pressure gradient associated with the surface lee trough will allow for low end breezy conditions. This will in turn create elevated fire weather conditions on the Caprock with another Rangeland Fire Danger statement being needed.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The upper high will reach its peak by Thursday as it is center directly overhead, warming Thursday's afternoon highs into the upper 90s/near 100. A surface low is progged to develop across the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle early Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow for breezy conditions and, combined with hot temps and low dewpoints, will create elevated to critical fire danger across the FA warranting a Fire Weather Watch. A backdoor cold front will push through the region Friday morning. While this will cool highs by 30- 35 degrees over Thursday's highs, it will also bring strong winds as pressure rises of 7-8 mb/3 hours are progged. Currently the NBM has sold wind advisory level winds forecasted for Friday. MEX guidance currently shows near warning level winds and is likely more in line given the progged pressure rises. We will hold off on any wind products at this time given this is still several days out. Regardless, widespread critical fire conditions are expected by wind alone. Winds will likely remain elevated into the early evening before decreasing through the night as surface ridging moves into the region. This will likely be short lived as a surface lee trough is progged to develop by Saturday afternoon veering winds to the south once again and allowing breezy conditions to continue.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR will prevail at all three TAF sites. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue overnight. Southerly winds will become breezy tomorrow afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ021>044.