textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. - Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, and quarter sized hail.

- Slightly cooler through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s to mid 90s, warming back up through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A relatively "quiet" evening has unfolded across the Caprock regions today, despite a few isolated showers and thunderstorms that have tracked northward across the region. Which has allowed for some locations to receive a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall today. Conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet through the rest of the night, with low to mid-level stratus filling in near the state line shortly after midnight. Water vapor imagery this evening currently depicts a disturbance tracking through eastern New Mexico, that looks to arrive to the Caprock regions just before daybreak Thursday. Hi-resolution models are in agreement with this, portraying a line of storms tracking across the TX/NM state line into the Caprock regions Thursday morning. Considering the abundant moisture in place with anomalously high PWATS and the moist upslope component to the surface winds will aid in convective development as upper level lift taps into this abundant moisture in place. The severe weather threat remains low, with the primary hazard being the potential for locally heavy rainfall considering the saturated column of moisture depicted by most hi-resolution forecast soundings. Although not as likely, strong to marginally severe wind gusts may be possible due to precipitation loading along with DCAPE around 800 J/kg. Thereafter, similar to Wednesday, we expected isolated to scattered storms to continue on and off throughout the day across both Caprock regions as outflows linger across the area. The primary threat will once again being the potential for locally heavy rainfall with stronger storm cores or with any training storms. As for temperatures, on and off precipitation along with cloud deck lingering through the early afternoon may throw a wrench in afternoon highs for some areas. Will opt to blend with CONSMOS for areas across the Caprock while blending with a slightly warmer CONSALL for areas off the Caprock to best portray this scenario. Regardless expect highs to range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Caprock and mid 80s to mid 90s off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

The upper level trough over the PacNW will continue to eject northeast through the start of the extended period while a shortwave at the base of the larger scale trough tracks from the Four Corners into portions of the central-southern Plains. Meanwhile, a H5 jet will set up to our north, helping to maintain a favorable environment for continued moisture transport into the region as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. PWATs are expected to remain well above the 90th percentile of climatological normals, generally ranging from 1.5" to 1.75" across the FA. With the combination of the approaching shortwave and embedded perturbations within the enhanced upper level flow, and anomalously high moisture, increased storm chances are expected on Friday. NBM probabilities show at least a 40% chance of receiving 1" or More of rainfall across the southwestern Texas Panhandle, where precipitation chances are the highest, while probabilities for measurable precipitation of at least 0.01" range from 50 to 80% area-wide through Friday night. If storms are able to develop, they will likely be scattered, tracking northeastward through the region. The severe weather threat remains low, though a well defined column of moisture and skinny CAPE profiles on forecast soundings suggest locally heavy rainfall could cause flooding concerns. Storm motions look to be faster from what we saw earlier this week, which should help mitigate some of the flood threat, although if storms begin to train across areas that have already received decent rainfall, we could see the threat locally increase across portions of the FA.

Heading into the weekend, the upper level pattern will begin to transition as an upper ridge builds back across the region behind the departing disturbance. This will allow PWATS to gradually decrease, resulting in a drying trend through the weekend. At the same time, an uptick in geopotential heights and thickness values will prompt warmer temperatures as the ridge strengthens over the region. Resulting in temperatures back into the upper 80s to upper 90s Saturday through Monday. This warm and drier trend does look to be short-lived with ensemble guidance becoming increasingly consistent in advertising another upper pattern shift by early next week through mid-week. Along with ensembles, deterministic guidance is depicting our next big system tracking into the Four Corners region by early next week, pushing a cold front through the region as it tracks eastward. Deterministic models are not in agreement in regards to the evolution of this system at this time, with the GFS depicting a weaker and slower progression of the system, while the ECMWF depicts a stronger-faster system. While the exact magnitude of the system remains uncertain, ensemble agreement has improved significantly over the last 24 hours, lending a bit more confidence in cooler temperatures and renewed precipitation chances as we head into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA or TSRA are possible at any point over the next 24 hours, but terminal impacts appear unlikely at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.