textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Dry and mild conditions are expected through Thursday, with typical West Texas breezes each day.

- A strong cold front arrives Friday, with chilly weather forecast Friday and into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The warming trend will begin today, as the establishment of leeward pressure falls occurs via a compact and intense, shortwave trough emerging into the northern Great Plains; and as the 1026 mb surface high rotates into the I-35 corridor. Confluent flow will persist over the region, although there will be some residual ascent within the upper-levels/400-300 mb layer due to a shortwave trough diving southeastward over the Desert Southwest. Winds for this afternoon were raised a few kt from the NBM, and sky cover was adjusted to account for the high-level cirrus deck. Vertical mixing will be capped beneath 700 mb due to the veered flow aloft resulting in the typical increase in theta-e with height; however, the effects from adiabatic compression will boost temperatures into the lower-middle 60s across most of the CWA. Winds will diminish quickly following the cessation of vertical mixing, with Tuesday morning lows similar to Monday. Lows were manually adjusted in the northwestern zones for both mornings, as terrain-induced drainages and sandy soils result in much cooler temperatures compared to the surrounding locales.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with only minor changes made for Tuesday. West-southwesterly winds are set to ramp up Tuesday afternoon, as large-scale, leeward pressure falls steepen a bit in response to the shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes region. An 80-percent weight from the statistical guidance was applied for winds Tuesday, with winds between 15-20 mph and localized gusts to 25-30 mph forecast. A strong subsidence layer associated with the confluent flow aloft will continue to descend and ultimately result in shallow boundary-layer depths. This is expected to prevent faster wind speeds from occurring, and is the reason for the weighting method for winds. High temperatures will be about 15 degrees above seasonal norms, but fall short of record values at CDS and LBB, with highs peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s across most of the CWA.

A weakening cold front, with a modifying cP airmass trailing in its wake, is slated to move through the region during the predawn hours Wednesday. Modest CAA post-FROPA will knock temperatures down into the middle 60s, or similar to the highs Monday, with winds quick to veer eastward as the weak surface high rotates into central N TX by Wednesday evening. Slightly positive geopotential rises Thursday will aid in boosting temperatures into the middle 70s area-wide, with a substantial subsidence layer remaining intact near or beneath 700 mb. It is possible that a pre-frontal surface trough arrives during the afternoon, causing winds to transition to the northwest before sunset Thursday; however, speeds will remain light regardless of the cardinal direction. An Arctic cold front is forecast to arrive Friday, as a well-defined cyclone over Manitoba rotates southeastward towards the Great Lakes region. There remains a substantial spread in temperatures for Friday and into next weekend, mainly due to the fact that the CWA will be under the glancing influence of this synoptic-scale evolution. Thus, the cA airmass should already be modified as it moves into the region, and changes to the temperature forecast can be expected as Friday draws near.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

There is a low chance of some fog and/or stratus for a brief period of time after sunrise Monday in the vicinity of KCDS. This signal has been persistent in the HRRR all evening and is supported to a degree by the WRF-NAM. There isn't really any low level moisture advection, so this would be a radiational "moistening." Will hold off on mention at this time. Otherwise, no sig changes to the previous TAF set.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.