textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Cold front moves through Thursday, bringing storm chances to portions of the area.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM Thursday for the southern Rolling Plains.

- Hot and dry conditions this weekend, with potential storm chances returning next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds will diminish overnight and generally clear skies will help temperatures to come down from highs well in the triple-digits Wednesday with lows ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. A shortwave moving across the southern Rockies will bring a surface low and associated cold front through the day on Thursday. Despite instability near 5000 J/kg during the daytime hours, the atmosphere will remain quite capped the daytime hours. Highs for much of the area will be cooler in the near 80 for the far southwest Panhandle and 90s across most of the South Plains. The lone exception will be the southern Rolling Plains where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM where highs may exceed 105. The environment will remain capped into the evening, however PWATs will significantly increase to near 2 inches off the Caprock with aforementioned instability staying present. Forcing will be lacking, however these other parameters should be enough to trigger some thunderstorm activity. CAMs appear most aggressive off the Caprock aligning with the greatest moisture. A few storms may become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds through the early morning hours Friday. Surface southeasterly winds will persist for the entire forecast area during the day Friday, bringing relatively cooler temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop across portions of the area by Friday evening, with again a few possibly becoming severe.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Zonal flow aloft on Saturday should help bring an end to the scattered convection of the previous days. A relatively strong shortwave will pass north of the forecast area during the afternoon, however associated storms should remain off to the north and east. Southwesterly winds will increase on Sunday and highs will return to widespread triple-digit highs. A series of shortwaves tracking across the forecast area beginning Sunday night and continuing through mid-to-late next week look to bring daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances. It remains too early to pinpoint specific locations or impacts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Breezy southerly winds will continue at all terminals before veering out of the east-northeast behind a FROPA late this morning. Expect speeds to increase to around 20-15G35KTs behind the front, in addition to MVFR CIGs as low stratus fills in. Lower confidence in MVFR CIGs reaching KLBB this afternoon with higher confidence at KCDS and KPVW. There is a chance for a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, primarily at KCDS but confidence in timing in coverage is low.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ037-038-042>044.