textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning, with flooding possible especially near the TX/NM state line.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle and northwestern portions of the South Plains.

- A few severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon over much of the Caprock.

- Generally drier and cooler weather is expected Thursday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Modest upper level ridging remains in place over the region at midday Monday, resulting in one more afternoon of warm and dry weather over West TX before a potent storm system takes shape over the next 24 hours. An upper low currently digging southward over the Sierra NV range will center just south of Las Vegas NV by early Tuesday morning as TC Polo makes landfall along the Baja Peninsula. This evolution will result in a rapid moistening of the column as southwesterly flow aloft intensifies over the region, with the middle and upper atmosphere progged to saturate quickly by Tuesday morning. Large-scale forcing for ascent will initially be relatively weak, but scattered showers are still expected to develop over the Caprock during the first half of the day Tuesday as PWATs surge above 1.5" and a few weak leading shortwave disturbances transit over SE NM.

This initial activity Tuesday morning is not expected to be particularly heavy and should be most concentrated near the state line. Given the thick overcast in place overhead, temperatures will also be notably cooler Tuesday on the Caprock, especially over the SW Panhandle where highs will not make it out of the 70s. Quite a gradient in high temperatures will exist across the rest of the region, with mid 80s to low 90s expected off the Caprock. Overall, we currently expect a relative lull in precipitation midday Tuesday as the initial batch of weak forcing wanes. However, robust heating on the warm side of the temperature gradient could spark a few scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon mainly over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. The heavier and more widespread rainfall (and the biggest threat for flooding) is not expected to materialize until later Tuesday evening and beyond, discussed below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By Tuesday evening, the remnants of TC Polo are progged to have largely phased with the broader upper low, resulting in a plume of significant and anomalous moisture flowing over NM and adjacent West TX with PWATs approaching 2" (nearly 4 standard deviations above normal) in spots. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage especially after 00z Tuesday as an upper level vort max associated with the remnants of Polo results in a notable increase in large scale forcing for ascent. The surface and low level response will also be fairly significant with most models depicting a sub-1000mb surface low developing over SE NM which will result in strong sustained winds over the Caprock Tuesday night. The current expectation is that one or more broken lines of thunderstorms will move over our area Tuesday evening through the overnight hours into early Wednesday, with the highest coverage of storms occurring to the west of I-27.

A few severe storms are possible Tuesday evening, with forecast soundings depicting strong flow up to the tropopause and surface- based CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg despite an elongated profile. This combined with 30-40kt of SSW flow in the 850-700mb layer will support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts, in addition to a nonzero tornado threat over portions of the South Plains given the presence of backed surface flow. However, the primary hazard associated with this event is the potential for numerous instances of flash flooding given training storms and highly efficient rainfall. Hi-res ensemble suites still favor areas along and west of a line from Tulia to Littlefield to Morton for the heaviest rainfall totals and highest risk of flash flooding, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for the SW Panhandle and NW South Plains. Areas in the Flood Watch generally have a 50-70% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 2" through Wednesday morning. Swaths of 3-4" are also not out of the question, though totals of this magnitude will be more common to our west and north over NM and towards I-40. Rainfall totals are expected to decrease fairly quickly with eastward extent, with some locations east of I-27 potentially only seeing a half inch or less.

The bulk of the heavy precipitation is expected to end by Wednesday morning as a dry slot punches eastward on the southern end of the upper low. Although some lingering scattered showers are a good bet through much of Wednesday, additional rainfall totals will only be light. Another window for severe storms will then open Wednesday afternoon and evening, this time across the Rolling Plains along and east of a dryline. This threat should concentrate mainly to our east, but a few instances of large hail and damaging winds could materialize on Wednesday over our eastern zones. For the rest of the week, the forecast generally trends drier and cooler. There will be some potential for a few showers late week mainly off the Caprock, but our current expectation is for most locations to remain dry Thursday and beyond. The more noticable change will be much cooler temperatures with highs currently forecast in the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at least through 12Z. Flight rules are expected to lower to at least MVFR by 15Z at PVW and LBB with moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms possible through the rest of the TAF cycle. CDS should hold on to VFR conditions through at least the end of the TAF cycle. Any shower or thunderstorm affecting a terminal will have the potential to lower conditions to IFR or lower.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ021>023-027-028-033.