textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend into early next week.

- Afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits are set to return.

- Although localized, elevated fire weather concerns will be possible off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Saturday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A quiet night is in store for the Caprock region, with most precipitation expected to remain west of the forecast area, allowing for a mild and dry overnight period. Lows will be slightly warmer than previous nights, as winds begin to veer out of the south, aiding in the return of WAA back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds will continue to veer , becoming southwesterly by mid-morning Saturday in response to a deepening lee surface low over southeastern CO. The return of downslope winds combined with the eastern movement of the upper ridge, with the center of the upper high setting up nearly directly over the FA, will not only increase geopotential heights but also thickness values. Therefore, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than what we saw Friday, in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Despite the return of the upper high over the region, the upper high looks to not be as strong as what we saw last week, thanks to the upper level trough translating from the PacNW into the Intermountain West, causing weaknesses within the ridge. This should help keep highs from reaching heat advisory level criteria. Nonetheless, hot conditions are expected to develop and heat safety should be practiced to avoid heat-reslated illnesses. Although precipitation is not expected, weaknesses within the ridge may try to result in a few higher terrain storms developing and tracking into the region. However, steering flow looks to be quite weak, with storms likely dying off before making it into the region. Will opt to keep NBM non-mentionable PoPs for the time being. However, it would not be a surprise if a rogue shower/thunderstorm attempts to make its way into areas across the Caprock late Saturday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The extended forecast package remains on track, with little to no changes made as the main theme is that is going to be mostly hot and dry. Through the weekend into early next week, we will continue to see the upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure translate east, wile flattening, in response to the upper level trough translating through the Intermountain West. Geopotential heights will be stagnant, slightly above seasonal standards, while thickness values increase subtly each day through the extended. Despite increase thickness values, the upper high will remain on the weaker side (~594 dam which is still impressive), which should help keep afternoon temperatures from becoming excessively hot. The warmest temperatures are expected to develop off the Caprock, and although we remain below criteria, if we see any signs of strengthening of the upper ridge, an Advisory may be warranted. Though for now, temperatures should remain below the 105 degree threshold, with highs cross the Caprock in the mid to upper 90s, while off the Caprock temperatures range from the upper 90s to lower triple digits. As far as precipitation goes, there is none in sight. Persistent subsidence beneath the ridge will continue to limit convective potential through the extended, with dry and quiet conditions expected.

The extended forecast package remains on track, with little to no changes made as the main theme is that its going be mostly hot and dry. Through the weekend into early next week we will continue to see the upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure translate east, while flattening, in response to the upper level trough translating through the Intermountain West. Geopotential heights will be stagnant, slightly above seasonal standards, while thickness values increase subtly each day through the extended. Despite increasing thickness values, the upper high will remain on the weaker side, which should help keep afternoon temperatures from becoming excessively hot. Warmest temperatures are expected to develop off the Caprock and although we remain below criteria, if we see any signs of strengthening of the upper ridge, an Advisory may be warranted. Though for now, temperatures should remain the 105 degrees threshold with highs across the Caprock in the mid to upper 90s. While off the Caprock temperatures range from the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Persistent subsidence beneath the ridge will continue to limit convective potential through the extended, with dry and quiet conditions expected through much of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR and light southerly winds will persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.