textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Widespread high winds with blowing dust and critical fire weather remain on track for Sunday.

- Chilly Monday followed by unusual heat later in the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The cold front has pushed south of the FA as of 1 PM and has left evidence of its passage in the form of strong winds. Max wind gusts as of 1 PM vary, with our northern zones, especially off the Caprock, receiving the highest wind gusts, averaging around 60. The Memphis mesonet has reported the highest gust so far in the FA at 69 mph. On the Caprock, wind gusts have averaged in the mid 40 to mid 50 mph range with all but Silverton, Tulia, and Muleshoe being below 58 mph. Sustained winds have generally been within high wind criteria with most mesonets reporting sustained winds greater than 40 mph. We have likely hit a plateau with wind speeds and should remain steady through the rest of the afternoon before slowly decreasing by late afternoon into the evening. We should see winds drastically decrease by sunset and drop to 15 mph or less by midnight. Despite relative humidity increasing behind the front to the 30 to 40 percent range, the threat for rapidly spreading wildfires remains high due to the strong winds. This is evident with ongoing fires in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The Red Flag Warning and High Wind Warning will be allowed to continue.

Winds will continue to diminish through the overnight hours and eventually become light and variable after midnight with a surface high begins to settle over the region. This will allow for overnight lows to drop well below freezing area wide. Overnight temps across the Rolling Plains will drop to the low to mid 20s while temps across the Caprock will drop to the mid teens to low 20s. The surface high will drift off to our southeast by Monday afternoon. This will eventually bring surface winds to the south to southwest. High temps will stay on the cool side, low to mid 50s, as the wind shift will not fully occur until mid to late afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Mostly quiet and warm weather is in store for Tuesday into the weekend. An upper high off the California coast will slowly drift eastward through the week, increasing thicknesses as a result. Highs will quickly warm into the 70s by Tuesday while highs in the 90s will be common area wide by Thursday. Depending on the strength of the upper high, we may see high temps reach the century mark across the Rolling Plains by Saturday with highs in the mid 90s on the Caprock. Dry conditions are expected through the week as well thanks to northwest to northerly upper flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

High winds and BLDU will continue at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through sunset. Wind direction will remain north through then, with gusts up to 50 kt common at all terminals. Significant cross winds on RWY 8/26 at KLBB are expected through this evening. VSBYs from BLDU will fluctuate between MVFR/IFR at KLBB and KPVW, with MVFR VSBYs expected at KCDS. Winds will diminish tonight while veering northeastward, with winds becoming light and variable early Monday morning. VFR will return at all terminals following the end of the high winds this evening, with an increasing VFR cloud deck.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.