textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Continued warm into the weekend until a cooldown on Monday.

- Storm chances return Friday evening near the NM border, then envelop the forecast area from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

After a few sprinkles exit north of Parmer and Castro counties in the next hour or so, dry weather dominates the short term forecast thanks to a broad 600 decameter high relocating from eastern Tennessee to Texarkana by Thursday night. This will keep the brunt of monsoon moisture in Arizona and New Mexico with large-scale subsidence expected locally. Despite rising heights and thicknesses, high temps won't get out of hand thanks to higher dewpoints limiting deeper mixing, and also recent soaking rainfall (mainly on the Caprock) that maintains cooling from evapotranspiration. As such, highs on the Caprock in the upper 80s and low 90s seem on track, with sub-100 highs off the Caprock where slightly higher dewpoints will reside through peak heating. This moisture will keep lows on the mild side once again for Thursday night under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

As an upper low over northern California churns slowly east on Friday, deeper southwest flow over the Desert Southwest will carry a shortwave trough across New Mexico. This process will send a band of monsoon moisture toward the TX/NM border by the evening complete with some low PoPs. These rain chances improve considerably by Saturday afternoon and especially the evening as the axis of moisture overspreads the Caprock within broad troughing. This abundance of background ascent with PWAT anomalies pushing +0.8" and potential for training precip in deep SW flow suggests some heavy rain and flooding could redevelop and continue overnight. Additional deep convection is possible Sunday, but this time favoring areas off the Caprock along and east of the upper trough axis. Models have sadly rejected a cold front for Sunday, so this keeps highs well above normal all weekend. Provided this cold front reaches our area on Monday, more PoPs are justified even with weak ridging aloft on the heels of Sunday's trough. The upper flow then backs more southwesterly as the monsoonal fetch deepens courtesy of a low/trough over SOCAL. Ensembles favor a cool and wet pattern through Wednesday, although there is concern for much of this moisture to hang up farther west within deeper meridional flow. This implies PoPs in later forecasts may exhibit a sharper gradient from W-E either in or somewhere near our forecast area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.