textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Some freezing fog and slight chances of freezing drizzle Saturday morning, mainly near the TX/NM border. - Morning clouds on Saturday give way to afternoon sun with much cooler highs in the 30s and 40s.

- Dry and mild weather is expected Sunday through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

At 11 PM a backdoor cold front was running from Hereford to Plainview to Jayton and should exit our area by 3 AM. Post-frontal stratus has been confined mainly along and north of I40, though this will change in the next few hours as stratus emerges in moist ENE upslope flow. HRRR soundings have been consistent in showing stratus lowering to around 500 feet AGL, although the depth of this layer overall is looking not as deep for freezing drizzle production as earlier thought. Areas closer to the NM border stand the best chance for both some freezing fog and a little freezing drizzle well ahead of drier dewpoints advecting across the eastern half of the forecast area. This drying should eradicate much of the stratus off the Caprock after daybreak, but farther west these dry upslope winds will fall short as winds veer southerly through the day. The upshot of this is that we expect stratus to dissipate much slower on the Caprock, albeit nowhere near as dire and cold as the NAM suggests. NBM temps were cooled a touch to account for low clouds not clearing entirely until 2-4 PM. As the 1045 mb surface high shifts from Wichita on Saturday morning to the Ozarks Saturday night, we'll keep a reprieve of chilly surface ridging over the area allowing light winds to veer westerly overnight and secure slightly milder lows mostly in the mid and upper 20s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Subtropical ridging over the western U.S. is forecast to collapse heading into early next week due to a high-frequency wave train over the northern Pacific Basin, with a pair of shortwave troughs propagating over the northern Rocky Mountains and the Desert Southwest. Benign weather is expected Sunday, with full insolation and light winds; and the aforementioned shortwave trough pivoting over the Desert Southwest will eject into the southern Great Plains by Monday. Moist, isentropic ascent will be confined above 400 mb, with a thick cirrus shield forecast to overspread W TX. Despite the dense overcast, warm temperatures are expected, as the southwesterly breeze increases to 15-25 mph (including gusts) in response to the leeward pressure falls, with highs forecast to be about 10 degrees above normal area-wide Monday and well-short of any records. The quick progression of this low-amplitude trough will be followed by an amplifying, positively-tilted trough digging into the Great Plains as a Rex Block evolves over the Pacific Coast. The first of two polar cold fronts is set to arrive late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with brisk, northerly winds expected area-wide through dusk Tuesday. The secondary front should arrive Wednesday, as the base of the trough digs into the Great Plains. Both of these FROPAs will be dry, with CAA modifying such that high temperatures return to near seasonal norms by mid-week. The low PoPs generated by the NBM across the northwestern zones Wednesday have been removed due to the large swath of dry air beneath the shallow belt of moist, isentropic ascent in the mid-levels. Dry and mild weather remains forecast through the end of next week due to the persistent blocking to the west and resultant north/northwesterly flow over the CWA.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Following FROPA before midnight, IFR ceilings should emerge and focus primarily at LBB and PVW where a touch of FZFG is not out of the question through mid morning. This layer will slowly rise to MVFR and then clear out by early afternoon. CDS now looks to escape most of these low ceilings overnight with only a few hours of MVFR possible.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.