textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Very warm and dry conditions this week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Surface ridging will move to the east of the forecast area this afternoon with a southerly component to surface winds returning areawide by early evening. Modest lee trough development from eastern Colorado to eastern New Mexico will result in further veering of winds to southwest for much of Monday with speeds a little stronger than the base NBM initialization and more inline with MOS and NBM 90th percentile. Still, that will keep wind speeds mostly in a range from 10-15 mph with a stronger 15-20 mph across the far southwestern Panhandle. The combination of southwesterly surface winds and increasing heights and thicknesses will push highs back to well above normal Monday afternoon and a likely record high at Lubbock (current record: 79 degrees last set in 1969).

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Very warm and potential record-breaking warmth will continue at least through Christmas Day as anomalously high geopotential heights will remain overhead as the forecast area remains under the influence of subtropical ridging centered initially to our south and then increasingly to the southeast. The shift eastward of the ridge will come as models agree in a deep trough forming off the West Coast toward midweek and flow over the CONUS amplifies. However, toward the end of the forecast period models sharply diverge in their handling of the closed low that eventually forms from all the energy diving into the developing trough and then is cut off from the main flow over the US-Canada border. Models have unsurprisingly slowed their timing on the ejection and opening of the low eastward which would delay any precipitation chances across the forecast area. The NBM has yet to catch on to this development and continue to have widespread low end PoPs in the Saturday night through Sunday time frame. Will clean those up a bit, but will leave in the forecast for now despite current skepticism. A cool down at the end of the period remains possible, but that will depend not only on the timing of the upper low's movement eastward but also the potential and timing of a more significant cold front next weekend. With low confidence will keep NBM temperatures forecast as is.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period for KLBB and KPVW. There is a slight chance of low visbys near the KCDS terminal early Monday morning but confidence in this occurrence is low.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.