textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Continued hot and dry through at least mid-week.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late Wednesday through Saturday

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Monday night) Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This evening's data shows a more pronounced weakness (to our east) in the southern CONUS flattened high pressure system than yesterday. In fact, there looks to be a weak tropical wave which develops off the middle Texas coast and starts works its way inland Monday night toward the DFW metroplex. With the H5 594 contour overhead, it will continue to be hot but not excessively so. Highs on Monday will once again range from the upper 90s to the 102-104 range out east. And, of course, no precipitation of any consequence is expected.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 959 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

On Tuesday, we start to see a shift in the upper level pattern as the high begins to shift eastward influenced by an upper trough approaching the California coast. By late week, flow aloft is expected to become increasingly southwesterly and supportive of some not-so-straighforward evolution. At least some of the guidance is hitting at both increased monsoon flow with the western trough's influence, but also another tropical wave appears to perhaps approach the northern Mexican coastline Wednesday evening before being shunted our way. This will be an interesting setup to watch. I wouldn't want to get too excited about these prospects just now as models struggle with weakly forced systems. It is likely most areas will remain dry. However, the chances for rainfall do increase late this week with slightly cooler temperatures (a few degrees) possible.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Continued VFR.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.