textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Friday across the South Plains, far southern Texas Panhandle, and much of the Rolling Plains.

- Cooler by the weekend with rain chances possible early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1207 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Post-frontal stratus late this morning was slowly losing ground with deeper mixing as temps warmed into the 50s well behind a cold front now stalling near the I-10 corridor. This theme will continue through the afternoon except in the southern Rolling Plains where satellite indicates a deeper layer of saturation. Models say this layer will be maintained through tonight as moist isentropic ascent lingers along the 300K surface, before expanding north and west overnight accompanied by a blanket of stratus. Meanwhile in the low levels, S-SE winds will trend increasingly moist after midnight and encourage stratus decks to lower to a few hundred feet or less - lowest on the Caprock.

Soundings reveal enough saturated thickness by sunrise Thursday for some drizzle and fog which may continue on/off through the early afternoon until a warm front finally lifts across the South Plains. Even as ceiling heights rise behind the warm front, there is concern for some low clouds to linger into the early/mid afternoon which casts considerable doubt on enough heating for convective initiation. Considering the strongest mid and upper ascent will just be entering central NM by sunset Thursday ahead of a digging trough, we don't expect much in the way of large background ascent during the daytime. The brunt of our ascent is in the lower levels and should focus primarily along/ahead of the advancing warm front and a dryline progged to sharpen over the western South Plains and remain nearly stationary. The dryline appears the weakest in terms of overall wind convergence as winds along and behind it are forecast to remain largely unidirectional (southerly in this case), yet enough of a density circulation is expected which alone could offset minimal CIN and garner a storm or two. The strongest moisture convergence and pooling is expected closer to the warm front forecast to reside from roughly Tulia to Childress by peak heating. Pressure falls from the central TX Panhandle back to NM should back winds ahead of the warm front more SE or even easterly resulting in locally favorable conditions for low-level mesos should storms develop. Deep-layer shear and thermal profiles are more than sufficient for supercells with large hail the greatest hazard, but a few tornadoes may also be realized near the warm front where 0-1 km shear of 30+ knots is on the table. PoP-wise, the NBM was scaled much lower tonight through Thursday everywhere. Opted to relegate the highest PoPs to our far northeast zones by late Thursday afternoon given a more favorable setup for deep convection near the warm front. Lastly, high temps tomorrow were nudged lower east of the dryline due to the potential for stubborn low clouds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1207 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Thursday's upper low/trough over the Great Basin will move eastward toward the foothills of the Rockies Friday. A deepening surface low is progged to develop across eastern Colorado early Friday morning before pushing into the Central Plains by Friday afternoon. A dryline will result for the FA and is currently progged to begin crossing the Texas/New Mexico state line by sunrise Friday, quickly moving east of the FA by Friday afternoon. While this will squash rain chances, it will bring dry and windy conditions resulting in at least elevated fire weather conditions area wide with near critical to critical conditions on the Caprock. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all parts of the FA with the exception of the southern Rolling Plains for Friday afternoon and evening.

Models are in good agreement with splitting the upper low/trough with Friday's progressive shortwave phasing with the main flow and a second upper low splitting from the main flow and slightly retrograding before settling off the west coast of Baja by late Saturday. A cold front is progged to move southward into the FA behind the passage of the progressive shortwave possibly cooling highs into the 50s Saturday. There is some disagreement with the evolution of the upper low as it pushes eastward Sunday into early next week. The ECMWF quickly transitions the upper low to an open wave trough and phases the system with the main flow by Tuesday with the low/trough pushing eastward across northern Mexico. The GFS is similar with its track of the system, but delays the transition to an open wave until it passes east of the FA, at least one day after the ECMWF. Both solutions provide the possibility for rain showers Monday into Tuesday as upper diffluence increases ahead of the system. Chances will ultimately depend on the exact path and location of the low/trough. If the current trend of having the low further south continues, rain chances will decrease. The severe threat should be low, however, as instability will be marginal at best.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR ceilings are fading slowly and PVW and CDS will be back to VFR in the next few hours. During the pre-dawn hours, IFR and LIFR stratus is likely to spread north and subject all terminals to some drizzle and fog at times before breaking up from S-N after 18Z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ021>036-039>042.