textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected into early Wednesday morning capable of producing heavy rainfall.

- Additional showers and storms are expected Wednesday afternoon which may become severe.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive Thursday and continue through Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The upper low is currently centered near Las Vegas, NV and is expected to make a little bit more of a southerly jog before moving back northward. The center of the low will dip down below the 37th parallel Wednesday morning before it lifts across the four corners on Wednesday afternoon. Over West Texas, there were several very weak perturbations within the southwest flow aloft extending southward into northern Mexico. This will continue to bring weak but persistent large scale ascent overhead through the day on Wednesday. During the overnight hours a low level jet will ramp up across the Permian Basin to between 40 and 45kt. The nose of this low level jet will be positioned across the South Plains shifting to the Rolling Plains closer to sunrise. This will be the primary lifting mechanism for convection during the early morning hours on Wednesday. At this point, convection will all be elevated under a saturated atmospheric column. Although instability values will grow up to 1000 J/kg early Wednesday morning, the tall and thin profiles will not likely garner strong updrafts. Some small hail will be possible but severe hail is unlikely. What is more likely is heavy rainfall given the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere. Many favorable parameters will be present for heavy rainfall as depicted in model soundings. Precipitable water values will remain near the 99th percentile and higher for much of the area through the night and into Wednesday morning. Strong winds through the column will be present which is usually not favorable for heavy rainfall. However, mean layer flow will be nearly parallel to the low level inflow which will support backbuilding or slow moving convection. Warm cloud depths will be at an incredible depth with the -10C isotherm over 5km in depth. Hi-res guidance does not completely agree on where the heaviest rainfall will set up but generally show it on the caprock during the nighttime hours and shifting to the Rolling Plains closer to sunrise.

A relative lull in precipitation may then occur during the rest of the morning hours until the early afternoon. The morning convection may dictate the best location for afternoon convection. Otherwise, conditions are expected to be similar to what we saw on Tuesday afternoon but with cooler surface temperatures. Warmest temperatures will be located over the Rolling Plains supporting increased instability. Mixed layer instability values are forecast to be up to 2500 J/kg in this area again supporting a severe weather threat. Overall shear through the atmosphere will increase with the approach of the upper level trough in the southwestern US. Storms will have a high potential to become organized given the amount of shear that will be present. Large hail will be the initial primary threat from storms transitioning to more severe winds during the evening hours. A stalled out outflow boundary/cold front may also increase chances for isolated tornadoes in vicinity of this boundary.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

On Thursday, the upper low will begin to eject into the central Great Plains, with strong southwest flow and anomalously high column moisture progged to persist over West TX. At the surface, a cold front will be progressing southward over the TX Panhandle, and will make steady southward progress through the day. Showers and storms are expected to continue ahead of the cold front mainly over the Rolling Plains on Thursday with a continuing potential for heavy rain off the Caprock. Forecast shear and instability parameters suggest a strong or marginally severe storm will again be possible Thursday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the front, but if frontal progression is faster than currently anticipated, the threat for both severe storms and heavy rain may shift to our south and east. Otherwise, our current expectation is for a general drying trend to take hold beginning on Thursday and continue through Friday as the band of upper level moisture is displaced southward as flow aloft weakens and becomes more zonal.

The other main story will be relatively strong north winds and a fairly dramatic cooldown behind the front late Thursday through Friday. Surface pressure rises on the order of 4-6 mb in 3 hr may result in a period of sustained winds near 30 mph Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning, and our coolest temperatures of the season so far are expected as a ~1035 mb surface high builds over most of the Great Plains states. Most locations will see lows in the 40s on Thursday night, with temperatures likely to peak in the upper 50s at most on Friday afternoon. The surface ridge will settle nearly directly overhead on Friday night, with the combination of light winds and clearing skies setting the stage for lows in the mid 30s to low 40s on Saturday morning. Locations over the SW TX Panhandle and NW South Plains may even briefly dip below freezing early Saturday morning, but confidence on a bona fide first freeze is still low. After another cool day on Saturday (highs in the 60s), temperatures will gradually warm back near normal Sunday into early next week. At this time, we expect dry conditions across the region this weekend through at least Monday before a potential return of shower chances by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Thunderstorms remain possible at KCDS for the next couple of hours. After a lull overnight, TSRA are again possible at all sites through the morning and will generally persist at KCDS through the entire TAF period. Lower CIGs along with gusty and erratic winds are possible within any storms. Outside of the storms, VFR and light southerly winds will persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ025-026-031-032.