textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Much colder temperatures following an arctic front towards the end of the week.

- Potential for extreme cold this weekend with sub-zero wind chills possible.

- Wintry precipitation possible this weekend, however timing and precipitation type are uncertain at the moment.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Right on schedule, surface winds have dropped to 5 mph or less across the FA thanks to a surface high that is settling across the region. This will help for early morning temps to drop into the teens on the Caprock and the low 20s across the Rolling Plains. Ahead of an upper shortwave trough, a surface low will develop across eastern Colorado by the early afternoon. Surface winds will respond to this low by being low end breezy and veering winds to the south to southwest. This will help to warm afternoon highs into the 50s area wide. A cold front will follow behind the surface low as it pushes eastward across the Central Plains into the Midwest this evening. The cold front is expected to move into our northern zones before sunrise Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning lows will be in the 20s on the Caprock and low to mid 30s across the Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Will be a quiet start to the long term forecast with mild weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. On the upper levels, northwesterly flow prevails aloft as the region sits between broad troughing over eastern CONUS and ridging over the Desert Southwest. Mostly zonal flow aloft will overtake as the upper ridging flattens as a closed low spins off the coast of SoCal. The first of multiple cold fronts expected the rest of this week will push through the region early Wednesday morning. Breezy northerly winds will follow the front, however will shift to the south by Wednesday evening as a lee surface low develops over southern CO/northern NM. The front will have no impact on temperatures with expected highs in the 50s to 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The main show in the long term forecast will be the very cold temperatures and possibility for wintry precipitation this weekend. Towards the end of the week, the aforementioned upper low will finally push onshore and continue east over the Desert Southwest. This approaching upper disturbance will shift flow aloft to the southwest effectively bringing in subtropical moisture to the region. Concurrently, a secondary upper low associated with the persistent broad upper troughing will spin over the Canadian provinces/Great Lakes region. As this upper low swings eastward, an associated strong arctic front will track southward toward the CWA. Models are in disagreement with the timing of this front. GFS is quicker in progression with the front reaching northern portions of the CWA late Thursday afternoon. ECMWF has a slower progression with the front reaching the CWA early Friday morning.

Much cooler temperatures than what we have seen this month are expected following the front. Although this system is several days out and NBM has been trending cooler compared to previous runs, opted to go ahead and lower highs on Friday and Saturday to align closer to MOS guidance with highs in the 30s to lower 40s Friday and 20s on Saturday. Single digit lows as well as negative winds chills will be possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Wintry precipitation will be possible this weekend due to the combination of colder temperatures and the subtropical moisture. There is a lot of uncertainty as this system is still a few days out and with discrepancies of the front timing between models the amount and type of wintry precipitation cannot be resolved at the moment. Check back for more details as models get a better grasp on the frontal timing in the next few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.