textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1034 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Unseasonably hot and breezy weather continues through the rest of the weekend along with critical fire danger for much of the region.

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle each afternoon through Monday, but most locations will remain dry.

- Cooler weather arrives by the middle of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Flow aloft remains mostly zonal over much of the CONUS as of late Friday evening, with upper level flow progged to back slightly to a more southwesterly direction over West TX through the next 24 hours. Overall, the synoptic pattern will favor the continuation of unseasonably hot weather through the weekend. After a brief return of shallow low level moisture to the region early Saturday morning, deep diurnal mixing and southwesterly surface flow will once again result in the development of a dryline which will mix to just east of the Caprock Escarpment by mid afternoon. Another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected over areas on the Caprock with dry southwest winds in the 20 to 25 mph range and temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Off the Caprock and to the east of the dryline, highs will soar into the 100 to 105 degree range, but surface flow will remain more southerly which will keep dewpoints generally above 40 degrees. This combined with the rainfall received Friday evening will help mitigate the fire weather threat somewhat over the Rolling Plains. Otherwise, the dryline circulation itself is expected to be quite weak through most of Saturday, which combined with what will likely be a relatively robust capping inversion should keep the potential for thunderstorms Saturday low. Even so, some model solutions indicate a weak mid/upper level wave moving overhead during the afternoon which combined with strong heating could be sufficient to overcome any inhibition. Should this occur, any storms would be isolated at best and confined to SE TX Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains, but could be severe given plentiful instability and modest bulk shear. A dry, mild, and breezy overnight period is then expected with lows in the 60s and 70s heading into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday into Monday, an upper level shortwave disturbance initially over the PacNW region will move southward over the Great Basin, in turn deepening a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft over the western half of the CONUS. Despite this evolution, flow aloft over West TX will remain southwesterly which will result in generally little change in our day-to-day weather locally. Unseasonably hot and breezy conditions will therefore continue, with critical fire danger expected to the west of a dryline which will mix just east of the Caprock Escarpment both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Similar to Saturday, most of the forecast area will remain dry with the exception of a few isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms which may develop just east of the dryline. This activity should also remain limited in coverage due to the weak dryline circulation in addition to only modest large-scale forcing. However, any storm which develops either Sunday or Monday could easily become severe given large MLCAPE values and slightly improved bulk shear magnitudes.

Our stretch of very hot weather will finally come to an end on Tuesday as a cold front passes southward through the region, with pleasantly mild temperatures expected to continue through most of the midweek period as cool surface ridging settles over the central plains states. This will also bring a return of chances for showers and thunderstorms especially Wednesday into early Thursday as post- frontal moist easterly flow potentially interacts favorably with some weak mid/upper level ascent, but rainfall amounts will likely be rather light through this period. Temperatures will gradually warm heading into the end of next week, with low chances for storms expected to continue each day given the potential for a return of unsettled southwest flow aloft.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

SCT TSRA activity will gradually shift east of the terminals this evening. Gusty thunderstorm outflow winds up to around 50 kt will be the main aviation threat with this activity. A strong low- level jet will develop tonight and lead to LLWS conditions at all terminals through early Saturday morning. Breezy southwest winds will continue during the day Saturday, with a very low chance of isolated TSRA in the vicinity of KCDS Saturday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>037- 039>043.