textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Highs in the 90s continue through Sunday until a cooldown next week.

- Few storms near the NM border Friday night before chances improve this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A stout upper high poised near Texarkana late this evening remains on track to slowly weaken and become more compacted through Friday night over the DFW area. This decay is thanks in large part to an upper low across the Great Basin moving east and phasing with a series of monsoonal disturbances as far south as northwest Mexico. This stream of unsettled SW flow aloft will occupy much of New Mexico through Friday evening where the greatest focus for storms is expected, but some of these shower and storm remnants may drift into our far W-NW counties Friday night where we continue to advertise low PoPs. The environment over the remainder of the CWA will remain too hostile for precip through Friday night thanks to mid-level subsidence with notable capping around H7. Meanwhile in the lower levels, a near repeat of Thursday is expected with dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s/low 60s which should be enough for scattered cumulus as highs reach into the 90s across the board.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A welcome pattern change remains in the offing complete with cooler temps next week and daily chances for rain starting on Saturday. This is all tied to a weakening upper high that drifts into East Texas before holding close to the Louisiana Gulf Coast for much of next week. This opens our door to varying degrees of monsoon moisture - initially Saturday afternoon and evening and perhaps a more potent version by the middle of next week. Models are in overall good agreement with this larger pattern, but the finer mesoscale details that determine precip potential and ultimately how much rain falls remain unclear. This uncertainty is already a factor as soon as Saturday due to a fair amount of spread in storm potential accompanying the arrival of the monsoonal moisture plume over the Caprock. Combined with a surface trough draped SW- NE over the Caprock, a weak shortwave trough in southwesterly flow, PWATs running on average 0.5" above normal, and ample heating, the pros outweigh the cons for scattered to possibly numerous afternoon and evening storms. Despite these favorable signals, some CAMs are curiously stingy with precip on Saturday which is not a theme shared by ensembles and global models, or our forecast for that matter.

Weak subsidence following Saturday's shortwave could stunt background ascent for Sunday, but we'll keep a mention of PoPs (highest off the Caprock) as some models favor another, albeit weaker, upper trough or MCV drifting northeast from the Upper Trans-Pecos. Daily PoPs continue thereafter under an increasingly unsettled SW flow that turns much richer with monsoon moisture and perhaps some eastern Pacific tropical moisture. Whether or not a weak cold front sags south from the TX Panhandle on Monday remains to be seen, but at the very least an uptick in cloud cover and lower thicknesses through the week will secure cooler temperatures for a change.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR with steady southerly winds through Friday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.