textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Mild, but unseasonably warm Wednesday.

- High chances of widespread rainfall late this week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Radar imagery as of 11 PM shows the remaining showers from this evening have diminished. The rest of the overnight period will be quiet and cold with lows ranging from upper 20s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 40s over southern Rolling Plains. Quiet conditions will continue through the day Wednesday. The upper system that was responsible for the rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening has moved eastward away from the region giving way for mostly zonal flow aloft as upper ridging fills in overhead. Slight height increases will increase temperatures Wednesday compared to Tuesday, however only by a couple of degrees with highs around the mid 60s across the region. Light northerly winds early this morning will shift to the south through the early afternoon. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry under the upper ridging. Tonight will be warmer with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

High chances of rain continue to exist late this week from Friday into Saturday. Until then, Thursday is shaping up to be a very warm day. Upper level ridging will amplify ahead of the system approaching the area late this week. This low will still be in the eastern Pacific on Thursday off the coast of Baja California. This will result in weak surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies Thursday afternoon. Winds will swing around to a westerly downslope direction boosting temperatures well above seasonal averages. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s on the caprock and lower 80s off the caprock or about 20-25 degrees above seasonal averages for mid February. There is still considerable spread in solutions on the track this system will take once it moves onshore. However, precipitation is expected to be widespread so chances remain high. At the moment based on ensemble guidance, the highest chances are expected to be from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Thunder chances are still possible with the precipitation during this time period as this system approaches the area. Additionally, wintry precipitation chances look to be nil with any cold air bottled up in Canada. A cold front will then move through on Saturday ushering in breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures. For Sunday into early next week, we look to enter a more classic dry season pattern with surface pressure troughing every afternoon. This would bring dry southwesterly surface winds, warmer temperatures, and possibly increased fire weather concerns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all three sites through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will continue overnight before shifting to the south Wednesday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.