textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Warm and dry conditions continue through next week, with possible record highs Saturday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday and Saturday.

- A short lived cool down is possible Sunday, before warming back above normal through the holiday week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through the short term period as northwest flow aloft begins to flatten in response to the H5 shortwave shifting eastward. As a result, heights and thickness values will increase across the region. At the surface, breezy southwest winds will develop this afternoon as lee troughing develops across southeastern CO. As the surface trough digs into the Panhandle, we will see the pressure gradient across the area tighten, influencing southwest wind speeds around 15 to 25 MPH, with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Given the increase thickness and heights, in addition to clear skies and breezy southwest winds, temperatures will become unseasonably warm. 850 mb temperatures around 18C to 20C suggest afternoon highs in the 70s. Strong boundary layer mixing tapping into the drier air aloft will likely mix down as temperatures warm this afternoon, likely influencing lower dewpoints than what the NBM suggest. These warm temperatures along with minimum RH values in the teens will yield elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Wind speeds will be greatest across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, with RFTIs around 3 to 4, which with temperatures in the mid 70s and low RHs will warrant a Red Flag Warning this afternoon in effect from 10 AM until 6 PM Friday. Elsewhere, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement will be needed given RFTI's around 1 to 2. Overnight recoveries around 40 percent along with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s will diminish fire weather concerns overnight.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will be the common theme of the extended. Relatively zonal flow will encompass the region through early next week, before becoming more northwesterly in response to an upper level high setting up over the Rio Grande Valley. Record high temperatures are possible to start the extended, with highs on Saturday in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the Caprock, thanks to breezy westerly winds and increased thickness and height values across the region. Given the hot temperatures and breezy dry winds, minimum RH values will range in the teens. Thus leading to the potential for another day of fire weather concerns. A short lived reprieve from the hot temperatures is expected Sunday as an upper level trough translating through the Great Lakes swings a weak cold front through the region late Saturday. Allowing for temperatures to cool slightly into the upper 50s and 60s on Sunday. However, this will be short lived as the upper level high sets up over the state by early Monday. At the surface, northerly winds will veer out of the southwest in response to lee troughing, which in combination with clear skies and above normal thickness and heights for December will influence temperatures in the 70s and 80s through the holiday week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Breezy southwest winds will develop by early morning across the Caprock, with wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 30 MPH. Unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon, about 10 degrees above normal, combined with the breezy dry winds, will lead to minimum RH values in the teens this afternoon. Due to the drying fuels across the region, with ERCs around the 50th to 75th percentile, elevated to critical fire weather concerns will be possible. Wind driven RFTIs around 3 to 4 will be highest across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, warranting a Red Flag warning across the aforementioned area, in effect from 10 AM until 6 PM Friday. While areas elsewhere will see RFTIs around 1 to 2 with wind speeds not as strong, leading to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM Friday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.