textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- An early-season heat wave will continue through the weekend with record-breaking highs possible through Sunday.

- Critical fire danger is likely across portions of the region on Saturday and Sunday.

- Dry and very warm weather will continue next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Our early-season heat wave continues as a ~596dam H5 ridge persists over the Desert SW. The overall synoptic pattern will remain essentially unchanged over the next 24 hours as expansive anticyclonic flow continues over most of the western CONUS, with the center of the ridge progged to take only a very slight eastward jog through the next day or so. After the record-breaking heat Thursday, a very mild night is expected with most locations seeing lows in the 50s with a few 60+ degree lows likely off the Caprock as modest west winds continue overnight. Friday will be another exceptionally hot day by March standards given the continued influence of the upper ridge with highs again expected to reach into the mid and upper 90s, and a few low 100s will once again be possible off the Caprock. The record high of 93 at Lubbock and 100 at Childress will both be within reach, but fire weather concerns will remain rather low Friday given very light winds across the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Saturday is still likely to be the hottest day of the next several as the center of the upper ridge makes its closest approach yet to our area, although by this time model consensus indicates the ridge will have begun to flatten and deamplify as shortwave troughing moves over the PacNW region. Even so, highs are expected to peak near 100 degrees across the region on Saturday afternoon, aided by stronger downslope southwesterly surface flow as lee surface troughing deepens over NE NM and SE CO. Critical fire weather conditions certainly remain a possibly on Saturday afternoon given humidity as low as 5 percent and southwest winds up to 15 to 20 mph, especially over the far southern TX Panhandle in closer proximity to the surface trough. Given the exceptionally dry nature of the vegetation across the region combined with potential for stronger winds, will go ahead with a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday for the entire forecast area.

On Sunday, the flat upper ridge axis will extend from the Baja coast over northern MX and into central TX. Guidance has continued to trend slower with a cold front moving southward through the central plains states during this period, with consensus now bringing the front through our area on Sunday evening. Another day of heat is therefore expected Sunday with temperatures reaching into the 90s to near 100, which will likely result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the region Sunday afternoon as pre-frontal surface troughing brings stronger west winds. Beyond that, Monday will feature a brief cooldown in the wake of the front, but very warm temperatures will return Tuesday through most of the rest of next week as upper level ridging builds to our west once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR and light winds will continue at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ021>044.