textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Temperatures above seasonal averages will persist through at least early next week.

- Isolated storms are possible Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoons near the Texas/New Mexico state line with dry conditions this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A persistent mid level moisture plume evident on water vapor imagery will bring at least low chances of convection to the area this afternoon and evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will be absent as it usually is this time of year. Any convection will have to rely on boundary layer heating and any low level convergence that will be present. A surface pressure trough will be positioned near the Texas/New Mexico state line this afternoon providing this low level convergence. Warm temperatures and a deeply mixed boundary layer will lead to inverted-V soundings with weak instability on the order of a few hundred J/kg. Capping will be minimal under this deeply mixed boundary layer but will result in very high cloud bases. The latest CAM guidance is insistent in developing isolated convection across areas on the caprock later this afternoon especially closer to the surface pressure trough. Pulsy storms will bring a low chance for severe convection but wind gusts into the 50s mph will be possible. Thickness values will continue to tick up both today and on Thursday leading to increased temperatures both afternoons. For Thursday's weather, see above. Nearly identical conditions are expected with a slightly farther east position of the surface pressure trough. This will allow slight chances of convection to shift to the east more onto the caprock.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

An upper level ridge will remain centered over the southeastern US on Friday bringing additional chances for isolated storms on Friday afternoon and evening. Deep upper level troughing over the western CONUS will keep the surface pressure trough anchored near the Texas/New Mexico state line on Friday. Temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 on the caprock on Friday will again bring high based convection but with low chances of severe storms. There will be no relief to the heat this weekend through at least early next week. The upper level ridge currently positioned over the southeastern US will shift westward with the center of the ridge nearly overhead during this time period. This will likely keep convection to the west of the area in New Mexico with little to no chances across West Texas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Slightly breezy southwesterly winds will weaken this evening and shift the the SSE.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.