textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Continued elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Monday with hot, dry, and windy conditions.

- Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch remain in effect for the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

- Storm chances may return Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Quiet conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Lower cloud cover is expected to develop over portions of the far southern Panhandle which will help to keep temperatures more moderated in the upper 50s, while elsewhere will be about 5-10 cooler with more clear skies and light/variable winds. Weak upper ridging Saturday combined with downsloping breezy westerly surface winds and humidities in the single digits will lead to critical fire weather conditions on the Caprock in the afternoon/evening and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this area. Highs will range from the mid 80s to the northwest to the mid 90s off the Caprock. Cloud cover may increase later in the afternoon, however no precipitation is expected.

A broad upper trough will track over the Rockies Sunday leading to the development of a surface ~990 mb surface low centered near the Oklahoma Panhandle. As usual with this setup, stronger WSW winds will develop over the forecast area. The strongest of these winds will occur on the Caprock with sustained speeds of 25-30 mph and gusts of 45-50 mph (highest over the far SW Texas Panhandle). The strongest LLJ core (around 60 kts) will be offset with the prime surface low location and not reach our northwestern counties until late-evening which luckily should inhibit winds from exceeding the aforementioned speeds. With continued single-digit humidities, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the entire area. Blowing dust may as well lead to periods of reduced visibility, especially to the north and west. Many areas will see highs reach the low-to- mid 90s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will diminish Sunday night into Monday as the trough departs eastward. Given very dry fuels and continued single-digit humidities, critical fire weather conditions will persist across the entire area. Winds will not be as strong, peaking sustained near 25 mph. A weak cold front will bring highs down about 5 degrees from Sunday. These will recover Tuesday with a tighter zonal flow aloft and rising upper heights, although fire weather concerns will somewhat be curtailed with lighter winds. Another weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday, but highs will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s. An upper cutoff low will quickly move inland over Southern California Thursday afternoon and we will finally see our first chance of storms in some time downstream of it. Active weather may persist into Friday, however it remains too early to have any significant confidence.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Layer of IFR stratus with some fog was precariously close to LBB and PVW at 11Z and may briefly impact these terminals through sunrise. Else, CDS will trade their IFR ceilings for VFR by 15Z or sooner. Earlier potential for another round of low clouds at CDS tonight is now less certain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Hot, dry, and windy conditions remain expected today. Sustained westerly winds near 20 mph and humidities in the single digits will bring critical fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon through 8 PM for areas on the Caprock. Stronger westerly winds from 25-30 mph, gusting to 45-50 mph are likely Sunday, highest over the far SW Texas Panhandle. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon through evening. Elevated fire conditions will continue Monday, although be slightly curtailed due to lighter winds.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.