textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1019 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- A warming trend is expected through much of the week, with temperatures back above normal by mid-week.

- Mostly dry through the week, though there is some indication of isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon for southern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Not much to report in the short term forecast package late this evening, thanks to the weak blocking pattern currently setting up across the region with the FA placed beneath an amplifying ridge over the Four Corners region. As a result, drier flow aloft will prevail out of the north-northeast through much of the day Tuesday. While at the lower levels, a lee surface trough will dig into portions of the Rockies, which in turn will allow southwest surface winds to set up across the region. Though winds will return to a more upslope component compared to previous days, speeds are expected to remain light. Nonetheless, southerly flow through the sfc to H7 layer will allow for WAA into the region, aiding in increased thickness values. In combination with the slight uptick in geopotential heights, we can expect afternoon temperatures to be slightly warmer, climbing into the upper 70s off the Caprock and upper 80s off the Caprock. Tuesday night will remain quiet with mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The upper level ridge will begin to shift slightly eastward through the start of the extended package, while weakening, in response to a series of disturbances rippling across the PacNW. Though heights will be near stationary, surface winds will be persistent out of the south-southwest in response to lee cyclogenesis to our north. This will allow thickness values to increase which will aid in afternoon temperatures above seasonal standards through the remainder of the work week. Expect afternoon temperatures to climb into the 80s and 90s across the Caprock regions as mostly clear skies prevail. A few ensemble members are still attempting to suggest a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our southern row of counties Thursday afternoon and evening as a disturbance tracks through the Big Bend. However, most deterministic guidance maintains a dry forecast for the area with the ECMWF ensemble in agreement with this. the outlier, in a shocking turn of events, being the GEFS suggesting a plume of moisture will enter the low-lying Rolling Plains and southern South Plains by Thursday morning. If enough return moisture can enter the region, there is a chance for isentropic driven showers and thunderstorms may develop. However, considering the lack of forcing and the bulk of the moisture being to our south, this forecaster thinks that most NWP guidance may be a bit bullish considering the expected synoptic set-up. Will opt to keep NBM non mentionable PoPs for the time being, though PoPs may need to be updated if guidance changes. A brief and subtle cool-down is expected Thursday and Friday, with scattered high-clouds expected to linger through the day as moist-upslope flow develops. Temperatures will not be much cooler, maybe a degree or two, but depending on how this forecast evolves, we could see even cooler afternoon highs. This "cool down" will be short-lived, with the return of warm highs by the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No aviation weather concerns.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.