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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Record high temperatures are expected Thursday, along with a critical fire weather threat.

- A strong cold front will blast through the region Friday, with advisory-level expected.

- Much cooler temperatures are forecast Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The short term was updated earlier this morning for a Wind Advisory valid from 1 AM Friday through 7 PM Friday. Confidence is high in widespread 30-40 mph winds with gusts to 55 mph, locally higher. Potential for widespread gusts of 58+ mph remains too marginal with the latest high res models. Also, we do expect a round of blowing dust concentrated along the front overnight, but this is expected to improve through the pre-dawn hours. No other updates at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a 590 dam subtropical ridge was centered near ELP, with the 26/00Z RAOB launched from WFO EPZ having ascended through the core of the mid-level, anticyclonic vortex. An elongated jet streak stretches across the northern half of the U.S., with a shortwave impulse, accompanied by a compact vorticity lobe that was previously barotropic, digging into SoCal. As the subtropical ridge shifts eastward over the TX Big Bend region Thursday, its amplitude will become modulated as the shortwave impulse becomes absorbed into the right-entrance region to the quasi-zonal jet streak over the northern U.S. This will induce slightly negative geopotential height falls over the CWA, leading to breezy and hot conditions for W TX, with record high temperatures expected area-wide Thursday.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was located in the western TX PH near the NM state line, with the dryline branching southward along the NM state line and into the TX Big Bend. Winds have since backed towards the south-southeast across the CWA, with the 50-degree isodrosotherm currently advecting into the eastern Rolling Plains per recent WTM data. Moisture return will continue throughout the nighttime hours, with the dryline expected to stall near the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment prior to sunrise Thursday. Overnight lows were raised a few degrees due to the warm theta-e advection and as winds will remain slightly breezy due to the maintenance of weak, leeward pressure falls across the region.

Intense dry-bulbing is expected Thursday, with temperatures nearing 100 degrees for most locales as theta-e profiles become constant with height. The prior record highs at CDS and LBB are 96 degrees and 92 degrees, respectively; and both were set in 2020. Meanwhile, veered surface winds will become breezy, with speeds between 20-30 mph expected as cyclogenesis of a 998 mb surface low occurs in far southeastern CO beneath the ejecting shortwave impulse. The dryline will propagate towards the I-27 corridor during the late-morning hours and stall, and while it will bisect the CWA, critical fire weather conditions are still expected across the Rolling Plains despite RH minima near or slightly above 20 percent. Otherwise, RH reductions into the middle single-digits are expected across the Caprock by solar noon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect area-wide between noon and 8 PM CDT Thursday.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The dryline will begin translating westward after sunset Thursday, with winds backing towards the south across the pre-frontal moist sector while remaining westerly across far southwestern TX PH as the surface low rotates southward. A polar cold front originating from a fast-moving shortwave trough propagating over the 49th parallel is expected to blast through the CWA prior to sunrise Friday. Winds were raised slightly from the NBM, with at least advisory-level winds expected area-wide Friday morning; and the gust factor was also adjusted and capped at 50 kt. High winds may occur across some portions of the CWA, but confidence is not high enough to warrant the issuance of a watch with this prognostication. Blowing dust should be kept at bay due to post-frontal moistening of the airmass, with low stratus forecast to advect into the CWA Friday. Winds will veer northeastward by mid-day Friday, with much cooler temperatures forecast from the strong winds and thickening overcast. Highs were lowered to align within the middle of the statistical guidance, but additional downward trends to highs may be necessary in forthcoming cycles. Fire weather concerns are low Friday, as the strong CAA and thickening overcast yield RH minima at or above 30 percent.

The subtropical ridge will meander over S TX this weekend, although the airmass will be slow to recover Saturday, with highs returning to near seasonal norms. Highs will rebound into the upper 80s by Sunday into early next week, with the subtropical ridge forecast to flatten by Monday as broad trough emerges over the Rocky Mountains and into the southern Great Plains. Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast to return late Monday as a Pacific cold front nears the region. The forecast remains dry otherwise through the remainder of the extended period.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR S-SW winds jumping to 15-25 knots at all sites with higher gusts. After scaling lower by sunset, strong N winds sweep in after midnight with a strong cold front. A brief window for BLDU with lower visbys is likely during FROPA before improving through daybreak. LBB will likely need an Airport Weather Warning in later TAF cycles.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Southeasterly winds will remain slightly breezy through the predawn hours Thursday. RH recovery this morning is expected to recover to above 70 percent, as the dryline will remain parked near and west of the NM state line. Following sunrise, winds will begin to veer towards the southwest, with the dryline moving eastward towards the I-27 corridor where it will eventually stall. Winds will become breezy by the late morning hours in response to a strengthening surface low in southeastern CO, with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph across the Caprock while remaining south-southwesterly in the Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours. The lowest RH reductions will occur on the Caprock, with RH minima in the middle single-digits. RH is expected to fall near 20 percent in the Rolling Plains, but with near-triple-digit temperatures and high fuel loading, conditions will be more than favorable for the growth and spread of wildfires despite the more-marginal RH relative to areas farther west. A Red Flag Warning is in effect between noon and 8 PM CDT today. A strong cold front will then blast through W TX during the early morning hours Friday, with advisory-level winds expected, in addition to much cooler temperatures Friday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ021>044.