textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Isolated showers and storms may linger overnight through Tuesday afternoon.

- Dry conditions then return through mid-week with temperatures back to or just above seasonal normals.

- Cooler and wetter conditions are expected to develop by late week through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening analyzes a slow moving shortwave trough across the Desert Southwest with perturbations within the southwest flow translating across the region. These weak disturbances tracking through have been the primer for lingering elevated showers across the region throughout the day today. As this trough continues to slowly translate northeastward over the next 24 hours we can expect a similar result through the overnight period into Tuesday to unfold across the Caprock regions. Given limited moisture at the surface, with most moisture present around the H3 to H7 layer given subtropical moisture transport via southwest flow aloft, showers that develop will likely be in the form of "virga" with little precipitation amounts expected overnight through Tuesday. With that being said, a few WTM stations have been able to pick up a few hundredths of an inch over the last 24 hours and little is better than nothing! Given a similar synoptic pattern will be in place, expect a similar overnight period with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s while afternoon temperatures Tuesday climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s. As for winds, expect relatively southerly winds, varying out of the southwest to southeast as a lee surface low digs into portions of eastern New Mexico which will attempt to shift winds more southeasterly by the late afternoon. Winds across northern counties may become slightly breezy around 10 to 20 mph as the pressure gradient increases. Tuesday night will feature slightly warmer lows, in part to an amplifying upper level ridge as a surface high centers over the Rio Grande Valley, along with the continuation of southerly surface flow and partly cloudy skies. Expect lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure centered near the TX/NM border will amplify through mid-week as an omega blocking pattern becomes established. While a closed low digs southward from the PacNW towards the SoCal region. Increasing heights and thickness values from southwesterly flow aloft and lee troughing will continue to support a gradual warming trend. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the warmest of the week, reaching back to near or slightly above seasonal normals. Dry conditions will also persist through mid-week as the upper ridge remains in place and provides subsidence, limiting forcing for ascent and keeping precipitation low.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern becomes more active as the upper trough begins to eject northeastward towards the High Plains. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are now in agreement compared to what we saw 24 hours ago, in regards of a secondary low near the base of the parent trough. Though differences persist in regards to the timing and evolution of this secondary low as it tracks eastward. Despite this uncertainty from global models, ensemble guidance continues to hint at the potential for beneficial rainfall across the FA, with ensemble PWATs well above the 90th percentile for late October. Decent moisture return is expected to develop ahead of this system, aided by southwest flow aloft and an upslope component to the surface winds helping to draw gulf moisture northward into the region. Given the remaining spread in the overall evolution of the trough, will continue to monitor trends in the coming days before becoming more certain in timing and evolution. For now, will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs area-wide. With this, not only may we see our next best chance for rainfall, but can expect the return of fall-like temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Light rain showers were currently moving out of the region with a batch of showers and thunderstorms in New Mexico. This additional activity is not expected to make it into the terminals early Tuesday morning. An outside chance of low CIGS and visbys is possible at KLBB and KPVW early Wednesday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.