textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 445 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Cloudy, cool and damp weather to start the weekend, then drier but continued cool for Sunday through Tuesday.

- Milder weather by midweek ahead of more rain chances by late week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Infrared satellite showed the first of two shortwave troughs on our doorstep at 10 PM complete with a band of convective rain in far southeast NM and the western Permian Basin. This precip is tied nicely to a zone of hefty upper divergence and strongly difluent flow accompanying the shortwave, and should continue in a weaker fashion across the remainder of the Caprock past midnight and off the Caprock through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts should be less than a tenth of an inch with this first round of precip. Additional rain chances by late morning and early afternoon look to draw lower in the wake of the shortwave, but with a broad conveyor of moist WAA continuing from 850-700 mb in S-SW flow, we can't dismiss at least scattered showers and even some thunder as lapse rates sharpen in advance of the second and more potent wave set to arrive Saturday night.

Stratus is likely to expand northeast through the morning on the aforementioned moist WAA conveyor, so high temps will favor the cooler spectrum outside of our southwestern zones where winds veer SW behind an effective warm front accompanied by some clearing skies. Much farther north in the dreary stratus regime, highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s are a good bet. Forcing deepens considerably Saturday evening and overnight with the arrival of a compact upper low tracking east and roughly along I40 in the TX Panhandle. The left exit region of a 115 knot upper jet passing over the northern South Plains will amplify UVVs and cool mid-level temps to nearly minus 20C at H5, so vertical instability will creep high enough for potentially greater lightning potential after sunset before precip ends from W-E after midnight with the low's passage. Swift storm motions remain a negative for widespread heavy rainfall, but any training of precip would change this on a localized basis, especially off the Caprock where PWATs are progged to hit 200% of normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1015 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Following remnant convection off the Caprock early Sunday morning, the remainder of the day is looking downright chilly and dreary as a cold front overspreads the region on damp NE winds. NBM remains too optimistic with highs in the 50s most everywhere, so these were traded for 40s for the majority of the forecast area. Soundings show sufficiently thick stratus for much of the day from I27 on east supportive of drizzle, and this is reflected by the NBM's 20-40 PoPs through the day. Drizzle may continue on/off overnight into Monday morning until the stratus depth shrinks to less than 1000 meters or so during the afternoon. Highs on Monday will also be curbed to 15-20 degrees below normal in this "stratus quo" regime.

Tuesday still shows some hope for breaks in the stratus (especially near the NM border) as moist upslope winds veer S-SW underneath deeper drying from 850-700 mb. Fortunately, min temps are forecast to stay enough above freezing both Monday and Tuesday mornings thereby squashing freezing drizzle concerns.

Following upper ridging earlier in the week, we return to an unsettled SW flow regime by late week supportive of low PoPs ahead of a potentially large and vigorous upper low entering the Great Basin. High temps will slowly improve into the 60s by mid/late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Flight conditions will be rather messy for much of the TAF cycle. CDS is expected to remain VFR through 18Z before MVFR CIGs move over the terminal. PVW and LBB will see MVFR CIGs drop to MVFR shortly after 13Z as light rain moves over the terminals. IFR conditions continue to look possible by mid day before convection develops over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely at CDS and PVW by 00Z and less likely, though still possible, at LBB. This activity will last through midnight at LBB and PVW and through 08Z at CDS before clearing to the east. While conditions should improve to VFR at LBB and PVW after midnight, CDS is expected to remain IFR.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.