textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Risk for flash flooding off the Caprock continues through tonight.

- Some severe storms this afternoon off the Caprock.

- Cold front Thursday delivers brisk northerly winds and diminishing rain chances.

- Light freeze is possible Saturday morning for areas on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Another round of severe storms is brewing for later this afternoon and evening off the Caprock accompanied by more flooding potential. The big picture showed an upper low atop the Four Corners at 11 AM and models are keen to move this over northeast Colorado by daybreak Thursday. Compared to yesterday, broader height falls are now underway over our area within weakly cyclonic SW flow aloft. This along with an axis of upper difluence has maintained a broad plume of mid-level clouds that will curb high temps over everywhere except the far southern Rolling Plains where highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s remain in store. A cold front snuck south ahead of schedule in northern Parmer County, but this is already stalling and should not make much additional headway south until Thursday morning. High temps today were lowered near this front with widespread clouds holding tight.

As the upper low and stronger height falls advance east later today, we expect the main axis of lift to remain just east of I-27 and Highway 87 closer to a pool of rich PWATs around 1.7" with 850 mb dewpoints in the mid 60s, something not too common in these parts. Given potential for training cells on top of areas that have already had multiple inches worth of rain, flooding remains in the picture through this evening. The strongest instability to the tune of 2000- 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE focuses just off the Caprock this afternoon along the eastern flank of thicker clouds. Similar to yesterday's efficient hailers, today's setup is not much different with generally straight hodographs and ample CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, both of which are favorable for large hail production. Low LFCs and some hodograph kinking in the immediate low levels may again give rise to brief low-level mesos and a tornado risk. The severe threat looks to depart from the Rolling Plains by 9-11 PM ahead of increased mid-level drying/subsidence, although this drying struggles to make much headway through the southern 1/3 or so of the CWA where we'll keep some PoPs through Thursday. Brisk northerly winds sweep south with the front through the afternoon effectively ending rain chances over all but the southern Rolling Plains. We'll be monitoring for fog and/or drizzle on Thursday in the wake of the front as the NBM has been underperforming with this so far today in the TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Some MVFR CIGs will hamper LBB and perhaps PVW this afternoon while the majority of TSRA stay farther east and affect CDS. Some severe TS with erratic winds and hail are possible at CDS through this evening. Although unlikely at this time, we'll revisit the potential for widespread low stratus Thursday with some fog or drizzle following the cold front.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ025-026-031-032.