textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cooler day in the 50s today with lingering clouds and patchy fog clearing from west to east through the day.

- Warm and dry through Monday, then cooler next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A deck of low stratus will continue to linger through the morning hours today before clearing from west to east through the afternoon. Similar to yesterday, lingering cloud cover through much of the day will limit temperatures from warming by the afternoon. Thus, highs were lowered several degrees below NBM, but continue to remain near normal in the 50s. As of 2 AM CST, light rain showers are moving east northeast across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains and will continue into the Rolling Plains early this morning. West Texas Mesonet observations have recorded only a few hundredths at most with these light rain showers. Current satellite mid-level water vapor imagery shows the upper low approaching the Panhandle of Texas. As the trough swings across West Texas this morning, the associated surface low will also push eastward and bring a weak cold front through the area. Thus, expect northwest winds through much of the day following the frontal passage. Any light rain shower activity will quickly wane this morning from west to east with the passing trough and scour of deeper moisture.

These northwest surface winds will remain short-lived today as another shortwave on the previous trough's heels brings another lee low and a return to southwesterly surface flow. With the slightly quicker and northward track of the shortwave tonight coupled with the placement/movement of the surface low, there is less of a chance for upslope southeasterly surface winds to help pump in low-level moisture. Low clouds may develop again tonight, but the chances are lower than the previous few nights with the highest potential across areas east of the Caprock Escarpment. Despite the lower chances for low clouds, mid-level moisture associated with the shortwave will still bring mid to high clouds across the forecast area, which will help to insolate temperatures overnight and keep lows about 10 degrees above normal in the 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A parade of upper troughs are expected through next week, however dry conditions are expected to persist. WNW surface winds will keep high temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s Friday and Saturday. Upper heights will slightly rise and westerly downsloping winds will increase Sunday into Monday, allowing highs to climb into the 70s across much of the area. Winds will be strongest on Monday, potentially gusting as high as 30 mph if current model trends hold. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday and temperatures correspondingly drop around 15-20 degrees to near 50.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A low stratus deck has brought ceilings below IFR this morning with some periods of LIFR. Light rain showers mainly east of PVW/LBB as of this TAF issuance are moving towards CDS TAF site this morning. Overall, ceilings are expected to improve through today as the stratus deck pushes eastward. Some areas are already seeing breaks in the stratus deck this morning, especially in areas where they may be light rain shower activity. Confidence is low on if the low clouds to the west will fill back in across the east following the rain showers and therefore amendments will be issued when necessary. All in all, VFR conditions are expected to return to by this evening, but there is a potential CDS may maintain or see a return of low ceilings tonight. A weak cold front will bring brief north northwest winds today before south southwesterly winds return.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.