textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday will create some blowing dust and a widespread critical fire weather threat.

- Breezy and warm through Friday, before a cooling trend arrives Saturday through the weekend.

- Elevated to potentially near critical fire weather concerns Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The dust was literally settling this evening on the heels of our first regional high wind event of the year. The upper trough responsible for this mayhem was speeding over the Missouri River Valley at 10 PM ahead of a loosening WSW gradient flow. At the surface, cool and semi-moist WNW winds were in place across our domain following an earlier Pacific FROPA. These cooler conditions will carry into Wednesday afternoon, but dewpoints will tumble lower than Tuesday as W winds back SW and advect a layer of drier air our way. This process occurs in response to the next shortwave trough in WSW flow that spurs lee troughing that amplifies through the day. Models agree in wind maxima of around 30 knots at 850 mb and 40 knots at 700 mb developing later in the afternoon across the western South Plains before translating east through sunset, so we should see a delayed uptick in wind speeds and patchy blowing dust from W- E. Model soundings and HREF max ensembles point to a window roughly from 3 PM to 6 PM of spotty advisory-level winds (sustained 30-39 mph) primarily over the western South Plains, but for now this is too sparse and brief to justify a Wind Advisory. The base NBM winds looked too tame and were blended into the 75th and 90th percentile realm to better account for deeper mixing in this drier air mass. Winds veer west overnight and stay breezy as the surface trough and its parent shortwave trough sweep across the southern high plains. After slightly cooler highs on Wednesday, lows Wednesday night don't look to stray much from the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

At least one more day of breezy and dry conditions is on tap for the Caprock regions, before we see quieter weather return to the area just in time for the weekend. By the start of the extended forecast package, the upper level low that is expected to bring the return of low-end wind and dry conditions Wednesday will eject into the Great Lakes regions. Following close behind, an additional shortwave will begin tracking through the Central Plains from the Rocky Mountain region, sending its associated H5 (~100kt) jet streaks across the northern Texas Panhandle, clipping northern portions of the FA. In response, the lee cyclone out ahead of the system will continue to deepen, with surface pressures falling as a result. As we see the pressure gradient begin to tighten across the region, not only the H7 but the H8 wind maximas will strengthen as they track through the Panhandle regions. Compared to this time yesterday, these jet streaks from the surface to mid-levels have taken a more southern approach which has lead to a higher confidence in the wind forecast for Thursday. In fact, most guidance is now suggesting slightly stronger wind max at the 700 mb level around 60 knots. Similar to yesterday, the H8 wind max looks to reside more towards the OKC metro closer to the surface low. Forecast soundings across the area indicate a deepening and well mixed PBL as we enter peak heating hours Thursday afternoon which should work to influence at least high-end breezy to low-end windy conditions once again Thursday. Despite this, most of the synoptic forcing remains "weaker" in nature compared to the forcing we saw Tuesday and Wednesday, all this to say although it might be breezy it will not be as windy to what we experienced earlier this week. Nonetheless, these conditions combined with temperatures, although cooler, still above climatological normals in the upper 50s to lower 70s. As noted, a large spread in temperatures is expected, as a weak front works its way through the region. Latest hi-resolution model guidance has this front stalling near the I-27/US-82 corridor, thus leading to cooler highs across our northwestern counties and warmer across our southeastern counties. Despite the the breezier wind speeds, we look to remains below advisory level criteria, which combined with the "cooler" temperatures and subtle uptick in moisture will likely limit near critical fire weather conditions, although elevated fire weather concerns will remain possible.

Friday looks to be the last day of the warm and breezy conditions, as another (yes another, thats why it is called a wave train!) shortwave transits from the Four Corners region into the South Plains. The associated jet will once again move through while the lee low simultaneously does the same, tightening the surface gradient. Despite temperatures warmer in the 60s and 70s and breezy southwest winds, moisture return is expected with minimum RH values above 15% which should keep fire weather concerns elevated at best. Cooler and quieter conditions return this weekend as a FROPA makes its way through the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning as an upper low digs into the High Plains, sending its associated cold front southward. As a result, temperatures will cool back into the 50s and 60s through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Light westerly winds overnight and early Wednesday morning will back SW and increase to 20G30KT at all terminals by midday. Some BLDU is possible at LBB and PVW late in the afternoon, but prolonged MVFR visbys are unlikely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1058 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Southwest winds will be much weaker on Wednesday afternoon, but still enough to warrant a critical fire danger for all but the far southern Rolling Plains. Southwest winds will pick up to between 20 and 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with gusts around 40 mph. After modest RH recoveries in the morning, RHs will fall to around 10 percent by mid-afternoon. Cooler, but continued breezy and dry conditions on Thursday will support another round of potential critical fire concerns.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ021>036- 039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ021>038.