textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Hot with isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over the southern Texas Panhandle.

- Hot with isolated thunderstorms over the entire area on Thursday afternoon.

- Very hot this weekend with near record temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Isolated convection is still forecast for this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon. The center of an upper level ridge will slowly move overhead today which will result in slight height rises. At the surface, we will see a weak dryline dividing the Rolling Plains and South Plains. Additionally, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will exist farther east from the eastern Texas Panhandle into North Texas. Very hot temperatures this afternoon will garner a high-based cu field. The greatest depth to this cu field will be located over the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The greatest low level theta-e air will be located closer to the quasi-stationary frontal boundary but a modest increase in these values is forecast over the Rolling Plains east of the dryline. Very deep boundary layer mixing and steep mid level lapse rates will bring instability values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. However, some capping will still exist within this layer, so any convection would likely be very isolated. Strong downburst winds will be the most likely threat with any activity that develops.

Nearly a repeat can be expected on Thursday afternoon but over a wider area. The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward with a deepening trough over the southwestern CONUS. Mid and upper level flow will back more to the west and southwest ahead of this trough. Additionally, we will see an increase in upper level winds as a jet streak approaches the region. This jet streak will primarily be too far to the south to bring any significant large scale ascent but the increase in winds alone will bring at least some very weak lift. Very hot temperatures will again lead to a high based cu field but with less instability and continued weak cap in place. Although, the instability will be more spread out over the entire West Texas region on Thursday afternoon. Very isolated convection will be possible given the above conditions bringing primarily downburst winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Thickness values will continue to climb into the weekend bringing near record temperatures on Friday and Saturday afternoons. A stronger dryline will develop both of these afternoons but will likely be located too far east for any convection in the FA. A deepening trough in the western CONUS this weekend will lead to surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Strong downsloping winds will contribute to the near record temperatures. These conditions will continue through Monday but with slightly cooler temperatures. The weather pattern will turn cooler around Tuesday of next week as a strong cold front pushes through sometime from late Monday through early Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Slightly breezy winds that are ongoing at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, will diminish during the predawn hours Thursday. Winds will then become breezy late Thursday morning and afternoon at all terminals. There is a potential for isolated-to-widely-scattered TSTMs Thursday afternoon, but it is unclear if TSTMs will affect the terminals. Therefore, the TAFs have been kept clean of any TSTM mention with this cycle.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>024-027>029.