textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM.

- With the exception of Thursday, warm and breezy conditions expected for the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Southerly winds will remain elevated overnight as a relatively strong surface low tracks over the northern Great Plains. This will keep Tuesday morning lows warmer than previous nights, generally in the mid 30s. An embedded upper shortwave will move across the Rockies through the day leading to the development of a sub 1000 mb surface low over northeastern New Mexico. Consequently highest westerly winds are expected over the far SW Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 45 mph possible during the afternoon. Otherwise, sustained winds of 20-25 remain expected most elsewhere. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM for a large portion of the area as even where winds will not be as strong, humidities will fall into the single digits. Given the downsloping component of the WSW winds, temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid 80s across the entire forecast area.

Winds will diminish Tuesday evening but remain elevated out of the west overnight and lows will only fall into the low-to-mid 50s. The aforementioned low will track southeastward while gradually weakening Wednesday morning. Combined with a lack of jet support, the pressure gradient will also be much weaker than Tuesday and sustained winds will struggle to reach much higher than 10 mph for much of the area. An elongated surface low will develop over eastern NM, however models do not show it becoming as strong as in previous runs. While humidities still remain low near 15%, given the expected lighter winds, no additional fire weather products will be issued with this forecast. Highs will remain very warm in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A broad upper trough will move through the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing a surface cold front with it. Winds will turn to northerly, then northeasterly and persist through the day. Highs will fall around 15 degrees into the lows 70s. The cool down will be short lived as a strong upper ridge gradually tracks eastward over Baja California. This combined with a return of WSW flow Friday and Saturday will bring highs back into upper 70s and mid 80s, respectively. A weak cold front may move over a portion of the area Sunday and/or Monday, however the aforementioned ridge should keep everything warm and dry through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR. Winds will continue to gradually increase throughout the rest of the morning, with low-end windy conditions developing at KLBB and KPVW by 17Z. BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon, but VSBYs will remain VFR. Significant cross winds will occur on RWY 17/35 at KLBB between 17Z-25/00Z. Winds will remain breezy at KCDS otherwise, with winds tapering off by dusk at all terminals albeit remaining breezy at KLBB and KPVW tonight. A weak surface boundary will move through W TX tonight, causing winds to transition to the northwest by the end of the TAF period.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain expected today. Most favorable conditions will occur across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with westerly sustained winds near 30 mph in the afternoon, with gusts to 45 mph and humidities in the single digits. Although elsewhere across the area will see slightly lighter sustained winds around 20-25 mph, widespread very low humidities along with relatively favorable fuels will still constitute further critical fire weather. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and western portions of the Rolling Plains.

Possible elevated fire conditions continue for Wednesday along near the TX/NM border, however forecast winds are becoming less impressive. Otherwise, fire weather concerns will return Friday and Saturday across the region.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024-027>031-033>037-039>041.