textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Warm and breezy conditions will persist over the next 24 hours with west-northwest winds nearing advisory levels on the Caprock Friday afternoon.

- Dry and warm weather will continue well into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today through Friday will be dominated by breezy conditions. A lee surface low will push southward from Colorado into northeast New Mexico by late afternoon before moving southeastward across the FA into North Texas by midnight. This will keep surface winds out of the west around 15 to 25 mph from this afternoon through Friday evening. Conditions will not be as dry as would be expected with a westerly surface wind. Lowering of dew points due to downsloping will be slightly offset by dew points already being in the mid the upper 30s across New Mexico and the mid 40s to low 50s across Arizona. While elevated fire weather danger is still expected across the Caprock Friday, the higher dew points will help keep fire danger from reaching critical. Surface winds will help to keep overnight lows warm, low 40s to low 50s, and Friday's highs in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A cold front will push through the FA Friday evening behind a passing upper shortwave trough and will help cool Saturday's highs into the 60s area wide. Much of the forecast will remain fairly benign through mid next week. Upper ridging will move over the central CONUS Saturday and Sunday before giving way to quasi-zonal to slightly south-southwesterly upper flow late Sunday into mid week. Surface lee troughing will help keep surface winds out of the south to southwest during this period as well with daily highs averaging in the 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will average in the 90s and 40s. Models show an upper shortwave moving over Baja by Wednesday afternoon, but there is a wide spread in pattern evolution beyond Wednesday. The ECMWF keeps the shortwave on a southern trajectory, moving across northern Mexico into central Texas by early Thursday. The GFS develops the trough into a closed low and moves it northeastward into the Four Corners early Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Strong west winds will continue at KLBB and KPVW through the rest of this evening and through most of tonight with frequent gusts near 30 kt especially at KLBB. Overnight, a strong low level jet will also bring LLWS to both sites, but this will dissipate around sunrise. After a relative lull in winds early Friday morning, winds will turn west-northwesterly and intensify once again at KLBB and KPVW after 16z. At KCDS, relatively light winds will continue over the next 24 hours. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.