textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible across the region. Severe thunderstorms with up to golfball size hail and wind gusts up to 75 mph are possible.

- Hot and dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday.

- Hot temperatures continue through the week with afternoon and evening storm chances possible Wednesday through Friday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The long term package will start off with a hot and dry Tuesday. The upper trough across the midwest will begin to shift east early on in the day. This will allow the upper ridging across the Desert Southwest to expand east across south-central CONUS. A shortwave passing across the southern Rockies will trigger the development of a lee surface trough across CO shifting our surface winds to the south late morning. Tuesday will be the start of a multi-day warm up. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging as well as southerly surface flow will warm highs to the upper 90s across much of the region with just below Heat Advisory triple digits across the southern Rolling Plains. Subsidence below the upper ridging will keep conditions dry Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances return to the northwestern zones of the forecast area Wednesday evening, however confidence in this occurring is low. Models indicate a passing shortwave across NM will trigger thunderstorm development, however models differ in the progression of these thunderstorms. ECMWF has the thunderstorms expanding southeast into the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. GFS has storms dying before crossing the NM/TX border. This is still a few days out, therefore can expect changes to future forecasts as models begin to align better. Hot temperatures and late afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and Friday with possible Heat Advisory temperatures, especially Thursday. The weekend, although still hot, will be slightly cooler with low precipitation chances each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. -TSRA is possible at all three terminals after 00Z. KLBB/KPVW have the best opportunity for TSRA, but have included a TEMPO to cover this activity. Expecting 05-10kts from the NW followed by a shift in winds to the SW after 03Z. Erratic winds will be possible in and around active thunderstorms.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.