textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible overnight over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle.

- Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday.

- The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Current upper air analysis as of late Wednesday evening highlights a closed upper low positioned over central CO, with the shortwave disturbance responsible for earlier convection exiting to our northeast. Southwest flow aloft will persist over our area through the near term, and a secondary disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery near MAF at 03z which will lift northward towards our forecast area through the rest of tonight. The surface airmass remains cool and very humid, with southeasterly surface flow still in place ahead of a cold front still up in the northern TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for a lull in precip to continue through late this evening, with another round of mainly elevated storms developing near or after midnight as the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance arrives and the SSW low level jet strengthens. Confidence is low in just how widespread this overnight storm activity will be, but the highest coverage is expected to be off the Caprock. These overnight storms are also expected to remain mostly sub-severe, although plentiful elevated instability may support a couple of instances of large hail. Of greater concern is the threat for additional flash flooding, especially over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle where a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell earlier Wednesday. Have opted to extend the Flood Watch to remain in effect through Thursday morning for areas off the Caprock, given the saturated soils and risk of high rain rates and additional training storms overnight. PWATs remain exceptionally high for this time of year, so additional swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain are certainly possible tonight off the Caprock if convection becomes widespread. A few heavy showers or storms are also possible along and west of I-27 overnight, but these should be less widespread.

The cold front will make steady southward progress through Thursday morning, and is progged to be through most of the forecast area by mid-morning. The frontal passage should generally bring a gradual end to any lingering showers over much of the region, but we do expect scattered storms to continue along and ahead of the front itself through early afternoon. This could bring additional heavy rain to the southern Rolling Plains before precipitation finally ends by early evening. Otherwise, post-frontal north winds will be on the blustery side through much of the day, with much cooler temperatures expected as highs only reach into the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue at all sites for the next few hours before slightly lifting. Thunderstorms are possible at all sites through the early morning, however KCDS will see the highest chances. Storm chances should end everywhere by afternoon, before breezy northerly winds develop, potentially gusting up to 30 kts. These will persist through much of Friday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ025-026-031-032-037- 038-043-044.