textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Scattered showers and storms, and seasonably cool temperatures, continue through Friday. The risk for severe storms is low, but locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Broad upper ridging remains in place across the northern Plains, while an upper low slowly retrogrades to the west over SW TX. An easterly wind component has resulted in seasonably high precipitable water (PWAT) values, especially across the SE CWA where the RAP depicts values of 1.8" which is around the 95th percentile of the model climatology.

A slow-moving band of showers/storms was ongoing over Kent/Stonewall counties as of 15z/10am this morning, near the leading edge of a weakening LLJ. MRMS estimates suggest 4+ inches of rain have fallen over far SE Stonewall County, and WTM sites in Haskell and Aspermont measured 5.84" and 2.41", respectively. Morning runs of the Warn-on- Forecast System (WoFS) show a gradual but steady northwestward progression of scattered precip, nearing areas like Brownfield, Lubbock, and Floydada by mid-afternoon. While there is still some question as to just how far NW this precip extends, felt there was enough of a signal to keep chance PoPs (20-40%) in the forecast for Lubbock. The probability of exceeding 1" of rain remains highest to the south/east of Lubbock (30-50% chance in those areas per WoFS).

Vis satellite shows broken cloud cover across the SE half of the forecast area at 15z/10am Thurs, and this cloud cover will gradually expand northwest as the upper low continues to retrograde. Precip coverage is expected to gradually diminish into this evening, but with the upper low continuing to linger nearby, a similar evolution should unfold tonight into Fri, with increasing precip coverage into Fri AM. PoPs are once again highest to the south/east of Lubbock. Temperatures remain seasonably cool today and Friday, with highs only reaching the low-to-mid 80s across much of the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The main challenge in the long term forecast is the evolution of the upper low. Ensemble guidance favors a slow southwestward progression, diminishing the precip chances to slight chance (20%) Sat and removing them from the area by Sun. However, guidance can be too fast with the evolution of closed upper lows, and some deterministic models depict solutions where the upper low stays over the area and keeps precip into Sun. For now, the NBM has just a 5- 10% chance of precip across our forecast area on Sun, but the PoPs increase to 15-20% just to the south/west so it will be worth keeping an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans.

Into next week, the upper ridge currently centered over the northern Plains sinks south, resulting in height rises aloft locally and steadily warming sfc temps. The associated subsidence should largely stymie any precip chances (less than 10% chance each day Mon-Thurs). Warm temperatures return next week, with daily highs in the mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s/low 100s off the Caprock. While not likely, there is at least a chance that heat advisories may be warranted, as the NBM has a 10-30% chance for highs above 105F off the Caprock Tues-Thurs.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The low cloud deck that lingered much of the day has finally cleared. VFR conditions will prevail overnight before MVFR ceilings return early Friday morning at all three terminals. Conditions will primarily be MVFR, however could expect some patches of IFR ceilings. These ceiling will prevail through much of Friday before clearing later afternoon, very similar to today. Light to moderate southerly surface winds will prevail through the TAF period. Showers will be possible Friday morning and afternoon near all three terminals. Location remains uncertain at the moment, however if showers develop near a terminal, can expect periods of heavy rainfall and some gusty winds.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.