textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday with widespread rainfall.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the region on Tuesday, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances continue Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The convective forecast for Tuesday remains nebulous at best. Large scale ascent will continue to spread overhead through the early morning hours on Tuesday associated with a short wave trough currently moving across New Mexico. A secondary short wave trough will rotate overhead from the morning into the early afternoon hours. At the same time, an upper level jet streak on the order of 50-60kt rotating with the short wave. Near meridional flow will exist from the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere as these short waves take on an increasingly negative tilt. However, this will place the region beneath the entrance region of the upper level jet streak. Moist isentropic ascent will also be on the increase during the early morning hours contributing to developing convection in the pre-dawn hours. Because of the isentropic ascent, elevated parcels will have an unstable atmosphere to take advantage of. Current model soundings show anywhere between 500 and 1500 J/kg of elevated instability. Deep layer shear will continue to be very weak which will lead to a very low severe threat during the morning hours. Precipitable water values will climb above the 90th percentile bringing more of a heavy rain threat than severe threat. However, the expected scattered nature of the convection may only bring localized heavy rainfall instead of widespread heavy rainfall. Afternoon convection potential is highly uncertain because of the morning activity. The secondary short wave will be moving overhead continuing the large scale ascent under a very moist atmosphere. Cool surface temperatures may keep the surface instability weak and capped during the afternoon. If some clearing can occur on the caprock, then differential heating would create an unstable atmosphere capable of producing deeper convection. CAM guidance at 00Z is not too excited on convective redevelopment this afternoon on the caprock.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A lingering short wave trough on Wednesday may bring thunderstorms to areas mostly off the caprock. Much of the caprock will be under subsidence in the wake of this short wave. Broad southeasterly flow will keep the moisture pumped into the area leading to an unstable atmosphere in the afternoon. However, deep layer flow will continue to be very weak by May standards. Therefore, severe chances will again be low for Wednesday. Short wave ridging will most likely keep Thursday void of any precipitation. Mid and upper level flow will back to the southwest again this weekend ushering in another active pattern of weather.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions will trend downward leading up to sunrise as an upper-level disturbance brings a wide swath of rain and embedded TSTMs. At least MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are forecast, with localized reductions into IFR possible with TSTMs. MVFR conditions are forecast to prevail outside of rounds of TSTMs later today at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. TEMPO groups have been assigned to reflect the best timing of the initial round of TSTMs. It remains unclear if the potential for TSTMs will last into the afternoon, but rain will certainly be possible amidst the MVFR conditions. TSTMs and rain are forecast to wane in coverage towards sunset, with MVFR conditions forecast to continue beyond this TAF period. Winds will remain relatively light otherwise outside of TSTMs.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.