textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly across the southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Storm chances return Friday and continue each day through the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A broad surface low remains over the Texas Panhandle along with a near vertically stacked upper low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing around the surface low with more widespread coverage across Kansas and eastern Colorado. The surface low will drift eastward through the rest of the day into early Thursday morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across our northern zones this afternoon and evening near the southern edge of the low and where there are a few left over outflow boundaries from yesterday's convection. Though the severe threat is minimal, a few storms could be strong to severe and produce hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Upper ridging will move over the FA Thursday and will help to warm afternoon highs by a few degrees over today. Models are in agreement with there being plenty of weakness around the upper ridge for unorganized convection Thursday afternoon. CAMs show development along remnant boundaries. The severe potential will be even less than that of today due to the overhead ridge, though a severe wind gust or two cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The upper low over California will begin to move eastward Friday and will take on a negative tilt as the trough axis moves over the Four Corners. This will help to enhance upper diffluence over the FA by Friday afternoon just as a dryline pushes eastward from New Mexico. While convective initiation is expected along the dryline, models differ somewhat in coverage. Global models are more aggressive with convective development especially compared to the NAM who keeps convection at a minimum. The ECMWF differs from many other models by keeping the dryline and much of the convection across eastern New Mexico before dissipating after sunset. While many CAMs do not forecast past Friday morning, some do show weak convection (rain showers) developing along the dryline mid to late Friday morning. Given available moisture and lift, the expectation is there will be at least some convection, though coverage is a bit uncertain. Coverage will depend on where the best lift will be located within the upper trough/low and how much surface convergence is present along the dryline. For now PoPs will be capped at Chance. While severe storms will definitely be possible, overall shear will be rather weak and instability marginal and will limit the overall severe potential. The upper low will lift northeastward late Friday and will be centered over Montana and Wyoming by Saturday evening and will bring lift with it. While dryline convection is possible Saturday, the dryline should be just east of the FA. A rather messy upper pattern is progged Sunday and beyond with weak upper flow with daily diurnal convection expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions will continue to bounce back and fort at KCDS through early afternoon, before returning to VFR conditions later in the afternoon. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the day. Some models are indicating the possibility of MVFR to IFR CIGs developing at KCDS/KPVW by daybreak. However, confidence remains too low for a TAF mention at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.