textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Hot, dry and windy conditions will bring elevated to critical fire danger to the region Saturday through Monday.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 8 PM Saturday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Warm but pleasant Friday is still on track. Light northerly winds following a front this morning have already shifted to the west as a lee surface trough developed and are expected to remain light through the rest of the day. Despite the front passing through the region, temperatures are expected to warm up to the lower 80s across the extreme far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 90s across the southern Rolling Plains. Should be a pleasant evening if you have any outdoor plans. Models indicate a backdoor front will push through the much of the region after sunset before stalling and dissipating across southwestern zones of the CWA. Surface flow behind the front will shift to the east to southeast while ahead of the front will be from the west to southwest. Otherwise, the overnight period is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday is expected to be warmer and breezier compared to Friday. A shortwave passing over the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee side trough. Winds across the region will shift to the west to southwest and ramp up during the afternoon to early evening hours. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are possible with the strongest winds expected across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. WAA from westerly surface flow will warm temperatures to the lower 80s across northwestern zones to upper 90s across southeastern zones. Dry conditions continue with RH values reaching single digits for much of the region during the afternoon hours. Critical fire danger will be possible across the Caprock during the afternoon and early evening hours Saturday due to breezy winds, dry conditions, and hot temperatures. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas on the Caprock from noon until 8 PM Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

If you didn't get enough breezy winds and hot temperatures on Saturday, I have good news for you, Sunday is expected to be a rinse and repeat of Saturday. An upper shortwave trough passing over the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee side surface low across eastern CO and northeastern NM. The pressure gradient will tighten as a result of this lee side low resulting in winds ramping up early in the afternoon. Breezy to borderline strong southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to up to 45 mph are expected with the strongest winds expected on the Caprock. Critical fire weather will be possible Sunday due to windy conditions and RH values reaching as low as 9 percent during the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from noon until 8 PM Sunday.

Elevated to critical fire danger is expected Monday as breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry conditions continue. We will see a break in windy conditions Tuesday, although the warm temperatures in the 80s to 90s will prevail. Wednesday looks to be the start of a cool down that may last through the weekend following back to back cold fronts. The first front is progged to push through the region early Wednesday with the second front possible late Thursday through early Friday. Precipitation looks to return next weekend as well with an upper trough moving over the Desert Southwest bringing moist southwesterly flow aloft. However, don't get your hopes up just yet as this is still about a week out and will most likely change for future forecasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR will prevail through the rest of this evening, with light east to southeast winds arriving after dark as a decaying front pushes into the region. IFR CIGs are likely to develop overnight at KCDS and persist through mid-morning on Saturday. There could also be a brief period of IFR or MVFR CIGs at KLBB and KPVW closer to sunrise, but the probability of this occurring is currently very low and will therefore omit TAF mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR will return for Saturday afternoon with increasing west winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The development of a lee surface trough over CO will bring breezy westerly winds to the region Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are expected. The greatest wind speeds are expected across the Caprock. RH values will start off up to 60 percent during the morning hours, however will quickly decrease to single digits by early afternoon. RH values will remain low through the afternoon and evening before recovering up to 30 to 50 percent overnight. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 8 PM Saturday.

Critical fire weather is expected to return Sunday. Similar to Saturday, the development of a lee surface low will bring breezy to borderline strong southwesterly winds through the afternoon and early evening hours. Wind speeds up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected. The strongest winds are expected across the extreme far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. RH values will decrease to as low as 9 percent during the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>042.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.