textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of the region this afternoon through the evening.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through the weekend with temperatures returning to more seasonable values next week.

- Storm chances continue each afternoon and evening through at least Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Most guidance again shows scattered convection developing by mid- afternoon across the southwestern South Plains into the southeastern Texas Panhandle along a surface trough. Forecast convective temperatures in the upper 90s will likely be breached along this surface feature with forecast max temperatures near 100 degrees. These hot temperatures will also bring relatively high cloud bases under a deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms will bring a greater threat for downburst winds and a lesser threat for large hail under these conditions. These mixed layer CAPEs are progged to be on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg with forecast DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg. Flow through the atmospheric column will be weak leading to much convection struggling to become organized. This will further promote downburst winds as the primary threat. The evolution of convection is highly uncertain given the amount of outflow boundaries that will be generated from initial thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms may again form in eastern New Mexico within a surface pressure trough. Outflow boundaries sent towards West Texas may become a focus for additional convection like we observed Thursday evening. If storms do persist well into the evening hours, they may interact with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary moving southward through the southern Texas Panhandle. However, this boundary may be masked by expected convection in the central and northern Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The center of the upper ridge will shift well to our east by Saturday and will build quickly over the MS Valley through the rest of the weekend, resulting in a transition to southwest flow aloft over West TX. Models remain in good agreement that mid and upper level moisture will remain in place overhead over the weekend and into early next week as a fetch of modified Pacific moisture is pulled northeastward. This will result in chances for isolated or scattered thunderstorms continuing each day from Saturday through at least Tuesday, especially over western portions of the Caprock in vicinity of a surface trough which will deepen daily near the NM state line. Forecast confidence in storm chances is low especially heading into next week due to uncertainties regarding specifics of any disturbances within the southwest flow that are currently unresolved. Regarding temperatures, triple digit highs still look likely to continue through the weekend, but a slight cooling trend is expected beginning next week with temperatures returning closer to seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Thunderstorms have moved out of the TAF sites with only light rainfall in the wake of this activity. Low CIGS may approach KCDS early Friday morning but chances are too low to mention in the TAF. Scattered thunderstorms can again expected at any TAF site Friday afternoon and evening but timing and coverage is highly uncertain at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.