textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue, with highs exceeding 105 degrees off the Caprock over the next several days.

- Low storm chances return late Wednesday and may continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper level ridge axis which currently stretches from SoCal over the desert SW and over much of TX will extend our period of hot weather for a few more days while also bringing triple digit temperatures back to the entire forecast area. 850mb temps are progged to rise into the 30-32C range Tuesday afternoon, which will result in high temperatures above 105F over our lower elevation zones off the Caprock where a Heat Advisory is in effect for the afternoon hours. Temperatures will top out in the 100 to 104 range farther west, but will nevertheless still be hot for this time of year (average temperatures for mid August are in the mid 90s). Continued subsidence aloft will keep rain chances at zero Tuesday through Tuesday night, with very mild lows in the 70s to low 80s by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Ridging aloft will slowly begin to shift westward beginning midweek, but generally neutral height tendencies will prolong our stretch of triple digit highs through Wednesday with another day of Heat Advisory conditions (105F+) likely off the Caprock. Thereafter, flow aloft is progged to turn a bit more northwesterly by Thursday before the ridge once again shifts back eastward and centers over our area by the weekend. This evolution will bring a short window for evening storms to translate off the NM high terrain and into West TX on Wednesday or Thursday evening, but most solutions are not particularly bullish on precip potential locally given rather weak steering flow. There are some indications that a bit of moisture trapped beneath the ridge may allow for a few storms any day from Friday through the weekend, but potential is still too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Otherwise, there is high confidence that temperatures will remain above average through the weekend and into early next week with no indications of any major pattern change.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions continue, with southwesterly winds around 10 kts during the day.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.