textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026 - Slight chances of storms this evening over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Severe threat is low.

- Hot and dry through the weekend with daily precipitation chances beginning Monday afternoon following a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers continue to linger for a small portion of the southern Rolling Plains. These shower should quickly clear the area within the next hour. A low stratus layer will persist following the exit of showers. A lee surface low has developed over Colorado and has shifted surface flow across portions of the area to the southeast. The rest of the region should follow suite in the next hour or two. Despite southeasterly surface flow ushering in warm air, the lingering cloudy skies will keep high temperatures in the 80s across the region. The aforementioned surface low is expected to amplify to the south across central New Mexico through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the eastern edge of the trough and expand eastward toward our CWA. Models have backed off on storms reaching our forecast area this evening compared to previous forecasts. CAMs now show the storms mostly dissipate before reaching northwestern zones of the forecast area. However, southeasterly upslope flow could sustain the storms as they move across the state border. Therefore, have kept slight chances across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the northwestern South Plains.

Besides the slight storm chances across the northwest corner, the rest of the evening and overnight period will be quiet. Temperatures will be slightly warmer compared to last night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. Upper ridging remains across southwestern CONUS with the eastern edge directly overhead. On the surface, winds will shift to the south and increase early Saturday afternoon as the aforementioned lee trough tightens the pressure gradient. Thickness increases as well as southerly winds will warm highs to the 90s across the region. With subsidence from the upper ridging and nothing in terms of surface forcing, precipitation chances on Saturday are near zero. There is a low chance for maybe a shower or two across the far southern Texas Panhandle, however most of the thunderstorm activity will be to the north of the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Hot and dry conditions persist into Sunday. The surface low mentioned in the short term discussion will track eastward early Sunday shifting breezy winds to the southwest. A secondary lee surface low will develop over northern NM early Sunday afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken through the afternoon as the secondary surface low tracks southeast towards the region. The upper ridging over southwestern CONUS will flatten and expand eastward over parts of Texas. Southwesterly surface flow and thickness increases due to the upper region will warm temperatures into triple digits again. With dewpoints in the 60s, the Heat Index could reach Heat Advisory temperatures (105-108 degrees), mainly off the Caprock. If this trend continues, a Heat Advisory will most likely be issued in the future. On top of the hot temperatures, the upper ridging will keep conditions dry.

An upper trough will track eastward just north of the Great Lakes region. This upper disturbance will push a cold front southward through our region to start the work week. Timing of the front reaching our forecast area is a little uncertain at the moment. It will depend on the progression of the surface low as it moves across the Texas Panhandle. Some models indicate the surface low will slow down the front before tracking southward towards central Texas. Other models indicate the low will continue to track east and have no impact on the progression of the front. Either progression will push the front through the region sometime during the day Monday. The frontal passage will slightly cool temperatures, although not by much as highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the region. Depending on the timing of the front, some southern zones could see triple digit highs again.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the region Monday afternoon, mainly off the Caprock, following the front with plenty of moist air as well as surface forcing. Daily precipitation chances continue the rest of the week with multiple embedded upper shortwaves passing overhead everyday. Currently, severe chances are low for next week and can expect mostly rain showers. However, severe thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. As we get closer to Monday, we will be able to hone in more on the severe potential. Despite the daily precipitation chances, highs through the week remain hot in the 90s to lower 100s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR and light southeast winds will continue the rest of this evening and through most of the overnight hours. MVFR CIGs may develop near daybreak, with highest probability of MVFR at KCDS and lesser chances at KLBB and KPVW. VFR then returns with stronger south winds by midday Saturday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.