textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Temperatures gradually warm through the next few days, with slightly above normal highs expected through much of the week.

- Dry weather is expected to continue over the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Pleasant early autumn weather sticks around as we close out the weekend. Aloft, a weak upper level trough remains in place over southern OK into north TX, with a distinct pocket of enhanced low/mid level moisture and cloud cover still present just to our east. A surface ridge axis stretching from IA/NE down through the TX Panhandle will keep winds light and out of the east-northeast through the next 24 hours, which will in turn maintain a scattered to broken cloud layer over most of the region the rest of today through tonight. Some very light rain showers are not completely out of the question this afternoon and evening given the reservoir of rich moisture on our doorstep, but coverage is expected to be very limited and as such will keep PoPs silent today and tonight. Temperatures continue their modest warming streak with highs mainly in the mid/upper 70s today and the aforementioned cloud cover keeping lows relatively mild in the upper 50s and low 60s tonight. On Monday, the residual upper level troughing will exit to the SE as a modest ridge over the Four Corners begins building overhead. This will result in a continuation of dry weather while also boosting temps a bit higher with MaxT on Sunday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The theme of generally quiet weather will continue through the rest of the week as the jet stream and upper level storm track remain displaced well to our north. Most models agree that a weak blocking pattern will establish over the south-central and SW CONUS Tue-Thu with weak flow aloft prevailing overhead. Surface flow will return to a predominantly southerly direction during this period, and above average temperatures are expected each day during the midweek period with highs mainly in the middle 80s. By late week, the pattern is progged to evolve such that a broad mid/upper level low will establish somewhere in the vicinity of the Big Bend region. This could bring a return of light rain chances mainly over southern zones by Friday, but ensemble consensus favors dry conditions over most of our area as the best moisture remains well to our south and forcing remains subtle given only weak flow aloft locally. Overall, expect a pleasant (but perhaps a bit warm) week across the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Periods of MVFR CIGs are possible at all sites through the afternoon, however VFR should mostly prevail. Light NE winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.