textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Mild and quiet conditions expected Thursday before an arctic front early Friday morning.

- Potential extreme cold temperatures this weekend with sub-zero wind chills possible during overnight hours.

- Wintry precipitation returns this weekend, however precipitation amount is uncertain at the moment.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Our next cold front is on schedule, currently moving across northern Kansas as of 10 PM. This front will have little impact in today's temperatures, but winds will be breezy behind the front with an average pressure rise of 5 mb over 3 hours. Otherwise today will be similar to Tuesday. Winds will decrease to 10 mph or less shortly after noon as surface high pressure moves over the region. Winds will veer to the south after sunset as surface lee troughing redevelops. Despite southerly winds, lows by sunrise Thursday will remain in the 20s area wide.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Main focus of the long term package is the potential for extreme cold temperatures and wintry precipitation following a FROPA this weekend. Before this happens, a mild Thursday is expected with zonal flow aloft and southerly surface flow keeping conditions dry and temperatures around or slightly above seasonal normal.

Now on to the main event. An upper low associated with the broad upper troughing dominating much of CONUS will swing over the eastern Canadian provinces/Great Lakes region. As this system translates eastward, an associated arctic front will track south towards the Texas Panhandle. Models are in better agreement in the timing of the front compared to previous runs. The front is progged to push through region before sunrise on Friday. Much colder temperatures are expected through the weekend following the front. NBM continues to trend colder with highs on Saturday in the teens across the region and sub-zero wind chills possible during overnight hours. However, NBM is still ~10 degrees warmer than MOS guidance on Friday. Given the known bias models have with these strong arctic fronts, high temperatures for Friday were lowered using NBM25th.

In addition to the much colder temperatures, wintry precipitation chances return to the region beginning early Friday and are expected to persist through early Sunday. At the same time as the aforementioned upper low swings over the Canadian/U.S. border, a secondary upper closed low spins off the coast of California. Models seem to be in better agreement of the progression of this system, however are slightly off with timing. The closed low will shift further south just off the coast of Baja Mexico before shifting to an open trough and tracking over the Desert Southwest by the end of the weekend. The ECMWF has a quicker progression into the open trough compared to GFS. As the low tracks southward over the eastern Pacific, flow aloft will shift to the southwest, pulling in subtropical moisture to the region. In terms of uncertainty with the wintry precipitation, lift is not the problem. Upper level lift will be supplied by multiple upper jets over the region. The first jet associated with the broad upper troughing dominating much of eastern CONUS will set up overhead Friday. A secondary and much stronger upper jet associated with the upper troughing to the west of our region as it tracks over the Desert Southwest late Friday into early Saturday. Lift will continue through the entire day Saturday as the upper trough translates overhead. On the low levels, lift will be supplied by the frontal system moving through as well as isentropic lift. The uncertainty lies with the amount of moisture that will fill into the region with the southwesterly flow aloft. While we have high confidence that there will be precipitation over the region, exactly how much is still uncertain. Current soundings indicate precipitation type will be snow for much of the region. However, soundings for southeastern portions of the CWA show a mid- level warm nose indicating those areas will most likely see freezing rain. At this time, it appears that roughly the northern half of the FA will have the best chance of seeing impactful snow accumulations while southern portions have a better chance of seeing impactful icing. These specifics will be nailed down further in future forecasts.

To start next week, wintry precipitation chances end Sunday as the post-frontal surface high fills in to the region. Concurrently, zonal flow aloft will prevail as the upper troughing to the west of our region gets absorbed into northerly flow. A gradual "warming" trend is expected to start Sunday and continue through mid-next week. Although forecast highs for the first half of next week are in the 30 to 40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.