textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Warm today ahead of chilly conditions tonight behind a strong cold front.

- Cooler highs expected Sunday before a warm up through the week.

- Record breaking highs possible Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Satellite imagery shows a familiar upper air pattern as broad cyclonic flow persists over the eastern half of the CONUS with a deeper closed low aloft seen drifting slowly southward over the northern Great Lakes region. A sunny and warm Saturday is on the way across West TX as surface winds turn southwesterly with highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As the above-mentioned closed low aloft shifts eastward this afternoon, expansive surface high pressure will quickly spread southward over the Great Plains which will in turn push a rather strong cold front through our region by late Saturday evening. Although this will be a dry frontal passage, strengthening northeast breezes and robust low level cold advection will result in a chilly overnight period with temperatures quickly falling into the low to mid 20s across the region by Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

A much needed break from unseasonably warm temperatures is expected Sunday. Prevailing northeasterly winds, ushering in cooler air through the first half of Sunday will keep highs in the 40s across the region. Sadly, these cooler temperatures do not continue into the work week. Winds will gradually veer to the southwest Sunday evening in response to the development of a lee surface trough. For the upper levels, ridging over the Desert Southwest on Sunday will move east over the region through Monday. Southwesterly surface flow will prevail through much of the work week, warming temperatures into the 60s and 70s through Wednesday. An upper trough will translate over the Four Corners region Tuesday before models indicate it will take a sharp dive south right before it reaches the Texas Panhandle. However, conditions will remain dry with little to no moisture return with this upper system. Following the trough, mostly zonal flow aloft will prevail through the latter half of the week.

Record breaking highs will be possible at KLBB Wednesday with the current record high of 78 degrees set in 1980. NBM has a forecast high of 77 while MOS guidance forecasts a high of 79 degrees. A slight cool down in temperatures later in the week is expected as a cold front is progged to push southward through the region late Wednesday through early Thursday. However, well above (~10-15 degrees) seasonal normal highs persist.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Light winds overnight will strengthen slightly after sunrise, and will be predominantly westerly through most of the day. A cold front will bring a shift to northeasterly winds during the hours surrounding sunset. Post-frontal MVFR CIGs become possible near and just beyond the end of this TAF period, but this potential will be addressed in later issuances.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.