textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Strong, westerly winds between 20-30 mph are forecast across the Caprock the afternoon of New Year's Day into Friday.

- Above normal temperatures are anticipated for the first week of 2026.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft is present across West Texas this afternoon with a respectable ridge to our west roughly along the spine of the Rockies. The ridge will flatten over the next 24 hours leading to a zonal flow regime by 00Z/Fri. Fair weather with mild winds are expected tonight. On Thursday, west winds will increase mainly west of the Caprock Escarpment with sustained speeds peaking around 25 mph near the TX/NM state line. Inherited forecast had a mention of sprinkles, but after analysis of the thermodynamic profiles, have elected to remove these given downward omega in the saturated layers mainly above 600mB combined with a dry sub-cloud layer. Still, even if precipitation aloft were to form, three miles is a long way for a water droplet to fall and not evaporate in sub 50% RH. It could, however, help winds gust at the surface near any virga. Sfc min RH values should bottom out around 20 pct Thursday afternoon remaining clear of any fire weather headlines despite the breezy conditions. No weather hazards are anticipated for the New Year's celebrations in West Texas.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Zonal flow present Thursday night will be briefly perturbed by a minor disturbance transitioning the area late Friday afternoon. Behind this feature, ridging to our west will translate eastward with peak H5 heights on Sunday before we are situated on the back side of the ridge and southwesterly flow aloft returns. This flow regime should persist until about the middle of next week returning to zonal flow once again. All in all, it's looking like a quiet and warm first week of January with several days up in the 70s and even low 80s are possible in a few locations out east on Monday. After a breezy day on Friday with winds remaining up near 25 mph, no substantial fronts, no meaningful chances of rain, and not much wind either (by the West Texas definition.)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR next 24 hours. Westerly winds will pick up mid-to-late morning on New Year's day making for spirited near surface conditions for light GA aircraft on N/S oriented runways west of the Caprock Escarpment. But hey, if you're heading east tomorrow afternoon, you can get a bit smoother air above 8000' MSL and a 50 KT tailwind. Better GA flying returns for the weekend.

Happy New Year y'all.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.