textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Much cooler and breezier today.

- Cool weather lingers into early next week before milder temperatures and rain chances develop by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Sending this forecast discussion early as an active night is beginning to get underway along a cold front with storms accelerating south from our panhandle counties. Through 11 PM, thunderstorms should continue to expand westward along the length of the front and onto the Caprock with some severe modes at times given a broad field of MUCAPEs ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Given the progressive nature of this front and nearly parallel boundary-relative storm motions, individual storms are unlikely to be sustained for very long as they quickly become undercut, so severe weather should not be too common. Very rich moisture with dewpoints in the low-to- mid 60s and PWATs of almost 1.5 inches off the Caprock will make for efficient rain rates and some minor flooding, yet with less potential for training (unlike earlier in western Oklahoma) the window for flash flooding should be small. Storms will wane from N-S through the pre-dawn hours.

Much cooler northeasterlies deepen ahead of clearing skies for Saturday. The gradient flow remains breezy through the morning with gusts around 30 mph before slowly relaxing in the afternoon. Even with full sun, high temps were nudged a bit below the NBM to better align with the cooler range from MOS.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Forecast challenges are few through early next week before we enter a more amplified and unsettled pattern by late week. Sunday morning begins with broad surface ridging peeling east of the region allowing northeast winds to veer east-southeast. Anemic northwest flow downstream of ridging from the Colorado Plateau to the Pacific Northwest won't allow for much of any sensible weather locally, but south of this ridge lies a weak disturbance with respectable subtropical moisture. Models are still keen on keeping this wave and any precip in southeast New Mexico for Sunday afternoon and evening before dissipating thereafter. The next upper wave in west-northwest flow arrives either Monday night or Tuesday and has potential for low PoPs on the Caprock with some assistance via moistening SE upslope flow. This moistening plays into much better PoPs by late week as ensembles agree nicely in an active dryline setting up locally and remaining on our turf through next weekend under unsettled southwest flow with warmer temperatures to boot.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. North winds will remain a bit gusty the rest of this morning and into this afternoon before gradually weakening this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.