textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Thunderstorms ending before dawn ahead of much cooler and breezier conditions for Saturday.

- Cool weather lingers into early next week before milder temperatures and rain chances develop by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Sending this forecast discussion early as an active night is beginning to get underway along a cold front with storms accelerating south from our panhandle counties. Through 11 PM, thunderstorms should continue to expand westward along the length of the front and onto the Caprock with some severe modes at times given a broad field of MUCAPEs ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Given the progressive nature of this front and nearly parallel boundary-relative storm motions, individual storms are unlikely to be sustained for very long as they quickly become undercut, so severe weather should not be too common. Very rich moisture with dewpoints in the low-to- mid 60s and PWATs of almost 1.5 inches off the Caprock will make for efficient rain rates and some minor flooding, yet with less potential for training (unlike earlier in western Oklahoma) the window for flash flooding should be small. Storms will wane from N-S through the pre-dawn hours.

Much cooler northeasterlies deepen ahead of clearing skies for Saturday. The gradient flow remains breezy through the morning with gusts around 30 mph before slowly relaxing in the afternoon. Even with full sun, high temps were nudged a bit below the NBM to better align with the cooler range from MOS.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Forecast challenges are few through early next week before we enter a more amplified and unsettled pattern by late week. Sunday morning begins with broad surface ridging peeling east of the region allowing northeast winds to veer east-southeast. Anemic northwest flow downstream of ridging from the Colorado Plateau to the Pacific Northwest won't allow for much of any sensible weather locally, but south of this ridge lies a weak disturbance with respectable subtropical moisture. Models are still keen on keeping this wave and any precip in southeast New Mexico for Sunday afternoon and evening before dissipating thereafter. The next upper wave in west-northwest flow arrives either Monday night or Tuesday and has potential for low PoPs on the Caprock with some assistance via moistening SE upslope flow. This moistening plays into much better PoPs by late week as ensembles agree nicely in an active dryline setting up locally and remaining on our turf through next weekend under unsettled southwest flow with warmer temperatures to boot.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Ongoing TSRA along a line from near KLBB to near KCDS will continue to gradually shift southward over the next several hours. Convective impacts to both KLBB and KCDS are most likely before 08z before TS begin tapering off closer to dawn. Periods of MVFR CIGs will also continue at KLBB in the immediate term, but these are expected to lift to VFR within a few hours. Otherwise, expect relatively strong northeast winds to continue through most of Saturday with VFR prevailing through the end of the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.