textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Dry and warm weather will continue through Sunday.

- Low chances for rain showers remain in the forecast for early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warmer weather will make a quick comeback Thursday as the mid/upper level trough responsible for our relatively chilly Wednesday swiftly exits to our southeast. This will be a general result of the beginning of the breaking down of the rex block over the west coast on Thursday. The closed midlevel low off the Baja coast will gradually open and become absorbed into a sharp trough axis to its northwest over the next 24 hours, with the ridge becoming dislodged to the southeast and centering more towards the Four Corners. All this to say, flow aloft over West TX will weaken through the next 24 hours and gradually increasing midlevel heights will result in a notably warmer day Thursday compared to Wednesday. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s area-wide under sunny skies, despite a veering of winds to the northwest during the afternoon as a weak surface trough passes by. West winds will weaken after sunset but will nevertheless continue, resulting in a mild overnight period with lows mainly in the mid 30s by early Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Dry and warm weather is expected through the end of the weekend, with low chances for rain showers returning to the CWA Monday and lasting through Tuesday night. At the beginning of the period, the demise of the Rex Block over the Great Basin and far northeastern Pacific Ocean will have been well underway, with the respective cyclone having transitioned into an open trough as its base digs into Baja CA. Farther east, the CWA will be located beneath the deamplifying shortwave ridge, with anomalous warmth expected Friday as temperatures soar into the middle 70s. Despite temperatures between 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms, highs, as mentioned in the prior discussions, will be well-short of record values at CDS and LBB. The surface pattern is also expected to be benign Friday, with light and variable winds, due to the dearth in winds aloft as the belt of supergeostrophic flow remains dislodged over the 49th parallel and into the Upper Midwest. Weak return flow will establish Saturday in response to large-scale pressure falls across the Great Plains from a compact shortwave trough propagating over the Canadian Prairie. The arrival of a weak cold front Sunday morning will do little to cool temperatures Sunday, as the CWA will remain beneath the eastward shifting ridge, although light and variable winds are once again forecast area-wide Sunday.

Global NWP guidance has shown significant improvement on the state of the upper air pattern heading into early next week, in large part from dozens of dropsondes launched from a NOAA surveillance aircraft conducting atmospheric river missions over the northeastern Pacific Ocean over the last few days. The prior uncertainty with respect to whether or not the open trough remains open or develops a closed low as it pivots over Baja CA into northern Mexico, and how far south the trough digs into Mexico, has lessend. It appears that the residual vorticity lobe associated with the cyclone from the prior Rex Block will not decay entirely as previously thought while offshore Baja CA. This will aid in cyclogenesis surface-to-aloft as the upstream PV anomaly shears off from the negatively-tilted trough digging into the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and interacts with the shallow trough and remnant low. The bulk of the global NWP guidance is indicating the genesis of a compact, mid-level cyclone to form near Baja CA by Saturday. There is evidence of the vortex potentially ascending through the 300 mb layer while remaining fairly well-aligned as it rotates into northern Mexico by Monday.

The low PoPs generated by the NBM for Monday and Tuesday have been maintained, with the exception of being capped at slight chance, as the system should remain far enough south to yield a limited coverage of WAA-induced rain showers. Any rain showers that occur during the nighttime will be elevated and fast-moving as the jet streak(s) round the base of the trough and nose into W TX, which should be close to a neutral-tilt. QPF should be limited with this event, with better prospects for rain to the south and east of the CWA. There remains some uncertainty on when the mid-level cyclone opens as the trough ejects into W TX Tuesday, which will govern when the dry slot arrives and the already-low rain chances shift eastward altogether. Otherwise, thick cloud cover is expected early next week as the modifying Pacific moisture aloft advects into W TX, with warm temperatures forecast to continue through the end of the period.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR with breezy westerlies developing by late morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.