textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Warm and breezy weather continues through the rest of today.

- Cooler on Tuesday behind an early-day cold front, with isolated to scattered rain showers also expected.

- More widespread rain likely Friday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning highlights a fairly deep closed mid/upper level low off the coast of the southern Baja peninsula, with plentiful high level cloud cover within the apex of a shortwave H5 ridge axis centered over the Big Bend. Surface troughing over SE CO will keep southwesterly surface flow on the breezy side today, and this combined with the ridge in place aloft will result in another very warm day across the region with highs this afternoon reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will be very warm tonight by February standards as lows only fall into the 40s and 50s as southwest surface flow continues and cloud cover increases.

Tonight, the above-mentioned mid/upper level low will begin to open and accelerate northeastward, with guidance in agreement that the low will remain largely over northern MX through the day on Tuesday before emerging into TX as an open wave on Tuesday night. The extended period of moist southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching system will allow the mid and upper levels to saturate quickly, but the first half of the day on Tuesday looks absent of widespread precipitation given what will be a notable dry layer from the surface up to about 700mb. Given the track of the low well to the south of El Paso, forcing for ascent will be relatively weak over our forecast area throughout this event. However, some very modest difluence aloft associated with the H5 jet streak combined with weak post-frontal isentropic ascent and top-down moistening is still expected to be sufficient to generate isolated to scattered rain showers beginning Tuesday afternoon and lasting through late Tuesday evening. Coverage of showers will be highest along and south of a line from Morton to Floydada to Childress with lesser coverage farther north, but even so, rainfall amounts will be quite light with most locations only seeing a tenth of an inch of rain or less. Otherwise, expect Tuesday to be cooler compared to today, although temperatures will still be a few degrees above normal. Any lingering showers will quickly come to an end by early Wednesday morning as the upper wave rapidly weakens and exits to our southeast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Upper ridging will build Wednesday behind the aforementioned system. Light winds and partly cloudy skies lead to a pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s. The ridge will remain in place for Thursday and increased southwesterly flow will allow in part for temperatures to increase 10 to 15 degrees, ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Surface winds will veer out of the east in the wake of a cold front by Friday morning and highs will return to the upper 50s to mid 60s. An upper trough will track eastward over northern Mexico through the day Friday and southwesterly moisture advection out ahead of it along with favorable forcing via jet dynamics looks to bring likely rainfall late Friday through Saturday across much of the area. The ECMWF shows a more organized low beginning to occlude over Oklahoma Saturday afternoon which would result in a more pronounced dry slot over the region and rain ending a bit sooner whereas GFS shows this occurring much later and farther east. As such, specific amounts remain uncertain, however the overall system will be fast moving. A ridge will build back in by Sunday bringing a return of warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Southwest winds will remain on the breezy side through the rest of today, then turn more westerly tonight. A cold front will then bring a shift to stronger northeast winds after sunrise on Tuesday. VFR will prevail otherwise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Breezy and very warm weather will result in the continuation of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region through the rest of this afternoon with minimum RH values as low as 9 percent. Southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will be common over most of the region this afternoon, with sustained southwest winds of up to 25 mph across the SW TX Panhandle. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM for Parmer, Castro, and Cochran Counties with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for the rest of the region. Tonight, winds will remain near or just above 15 mph while gradually turning more westerly, and overnight RH recovery will be relatively poor, around 40 to 50 percent. A cold front will bring a shift to northeast winds just after sunrise on Tuesday, with chances for light rain across much of the region on Tuesday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027.