textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Thunderstorms remain expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms may produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Heavy rainfall expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning mainly across the Rolling Plains.

- Severe storms possible across the Rolling Plains Sunday afternoon.

- Dry until Tuesday with potential storm chances each afternoon thereafter, mainly off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Convection is still on par for this afternoon through the overnight hours, though some uncertainty remains over coverage and intensity. One limiting factor for convective development later today is lack of surface heating due to widespread cloud cover. Despite the lack of surface heating, marginal CAPE around 1000 J/kg is still expected area wide this afternoon and evening as lapse rates increase to around 6-8 as heights continue falling and better upper lift moves over the region. Upper lift is well defined on WV imagery over the Trans Pecos. This is supported by increasing radar returns. This area of lift will eventually allow, initially, for discrete storms to develop across eastern New Mexico that will gradually merge into a MCS across our western zones by late afternoon. The MCS will push eastward across the FA through the evening and overnight hours before exiting to our east Sunday morning. The initial severe threat mainly be hail up to golf ball size with discrete storms and will transition to more of a wind threat as the MCS develops (though the hail threat still remains but is not as prevalent). The LLJ will kick up during the evening and overnight hours and will help to sustain the MCS as it progresses eastward. The LLJ will also allow for a very low chance for a weak tornado or two along the MCS as it moves eastward across the Rolling Plains. Additionally, heavy rain will also become a hazard late this evening through tonight and will pose a risk for localized flash flooding.

One other caveat for coverage of for at least on the Caprock is storms that are currently developing near Fort Stockton and Fort Davis. If these storms become more organized and move towards the FA before convection can start across our western zones, it will limit coverage and intensity of convection mainly on the Caprock. These storms across the Permian Basin would move into the FA near the edge of the Caprock and continue moving east/northeastward. Many models have depicted this to some extent. Overall, the greatest uncertainty in regards to convection is from the I27/US 87 corridor and westward.

Convection should be east of the FA by mid to late Sunday morning as a dryline moves across the region. Additional convection will be possible along the dryline Sunday afternoon into the early evening mainly across the eastern Rolling Plains. Chances are low, however, as upper lift will be overall lacking and most instability will be focused to the east of the FA. Any storms that do form will be capable of producing hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Southwesterly upper flow will remain dominant through mid week as an upper low moves onshore into SOCAL, transitions into an open wave, and amplify. Dryline convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across our far eastern zones, bu there is a higher chance for dryline convection to form east of the FA as an embedded shortwave trough develops in the main flow and moves northeastward into Colorado/Kansas. The main shortwave trough then quickly follows suit and pushes eastward across the Great Plains. Additional dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday, but this activity will likely remain east of the FA as well. Upper flow will become southwesterly once again as a second upper low pushes southward across the West Coast from Canada. Models diverge with the upper pattern as the upper low moves into the western CONUS. The ECMWF keeps the low closed and also deepens it while the GFS quickly transitions it to a progressive open wave trough.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Thunderstorms remain possible at all TAF sites through this evening, particularly at KLBB where lightning is ongoing. Chances may linger at KCDS into early Sunday morning, however much of the storm activity looks like it will be east of our area. MVFR CIGs in KCDS are expected around sunrise and may briefly prevail at KPVW and KLBB. Otherwise, skies will clear thereafter through the remainder of the morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.