textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

- Thunderstorm chances will increase quickly this afternoon along and east of the I-27 corridor.

- Some storms may be severe and include a risk for localized flash flooding, especially in the Rolling Plains.

- Fog is forecast to develop early Saturday morning, with lingering showers and storms through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, an intense, compact cyclone was embedded within a positively-tilted trough that has emerged over the southern Rocky Mountains and is ejecting eastward towards W TX. The 250 mb and 500 mb jet streaks, analyzed by the 12Z UA charts at 75 kt and 45 kt, respectively, were rounding the base of the trough; and have generated an intense field of moist, isentropic ascent within an elongated baroclinic leaf stretching from northern Mexico and into the Upper Red River Valley. WAA-induced clusters of showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across the Rolling Plains, as the 700 mb trough has already arrived, with the more-vigorous ascent focused farther southwest over the Permian Basin, which was advecting northeastward towards the CWA. The low-level jet was backed and analyzed at 35 kt by the 12Z RAOB from WFO MAF, and will remain backed through this evening until the cyclone rotates over the southern High Plains region. Strong, WAA will continue, advecting a plume of warm theta-e air and anomalously high PWATs nearly three standard deviations above the climatological mean. (The 12Z RAOB from WFO MAF observed a PWAT value of 1.13", or 170 percent above normal.) Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along and east of the I-27 corridor by 21-22Z as the vorticity lobe rotating through the base of the trough ejects into W TX this afternoon.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was located near Bootleg on WTM data, with a quasi-stationary front extending southward from this low and dammed along the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment. The front then extends northeastward into the TX PH and becomes increasingly wavy due to the presence of another lee cyclone centered over BPC. Winds were veered slightly west of south, but will back primarily to the south and south-southeast this afternoon as cyclogenesis continues and the quasi-stationary front sags southward, generating a weak, isallobaric response, with winds becoming breezy. The 60 degree isodrosotherm was delineated along the HWY-70 corridor, with upper 50 degree dewpoints present across the far southern TX PH. A dearth in boundary-layer mixing is expected for most of the CWA today, as the northern edge of the baroclinic leaf/thick cloud cover eclipses the far southwestern TX PH, which will aid in maintaining the rich boundary-layer moisture by late-October standards. However, despite the restriction of diabatic heating from high-altitude overcast, webcam views depict strong, low-level ascent, with a field of boundary-layer cu present over LBB and the surrounding areas.

The vigorous clusters of storms ongoing in the Permian Basin will continue to advect northeastward over the next several hours, with an expectation for widespread storm development to occur as parcels gradually become surface-based despite thick cloud cover. Farther northwest, more-isolated storms are expected near the stalled front, as differential mixing and low-level convergence serves as the impetus for development. Increasing subsidence on the northwestern periphery of the baroclinic leaf should keep storms cellular, with an attendant risk for localized wind-damage and large hail. As the vorticity lobe ejects into W TX this afternoon, the expectation is for a MCS to develop along and east of the I-27 corridor. The amalgamation of cold pools may occur quickly, with Corfidi vectors favoring a forward-propagation component to the MCS. Cross-boundary shear vectors will aid in the maintenance of mesocyclones embedded within the MCS, which will pose a risk for large hail, heavy rainfall, and localized wind-damage. Line-embedded mesovortices may develop towards dusk as the low-level jet begins to intensify, although the potential for tornadoes is low and will be focused in the Rolling Plains. Storm chances will end from west-to-east tonight, with the potential for the deformation aloft to respawn elevated showers and storms throughout the overnight hours. Low PoPs have been added area-wide through the predawn hours to account for this as moist, isentropic ascent remains intact aloft.

During the early morning hours Saturday, the quasi-stationary front will move southward and shift winds to the north in its wake. Fog is forecast to develop across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains prior to sunrise. As the closed low rotates over W TX and the trough becomes neutrally-tilted by Saturday afternoon, a transition to northwesterly flow will occur atop the post-frontal airmass. Chances for elevated showers and storms will continue through the afternoon hours as residual moisture within the low- and mid-level isentropes remain intact before the onset of NVA on the backside of the system. Chilly and drier conditions will follow Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below:

Warmer temperatures and dry weather will then return on Sunday and Monday as the upper low finally exits and zonal flow aloft overspreads the region. By the middle of next week, most models depict broad and deep cyclonic flow developing over the eastern half of the CONUS which persists for several days. Although specifics are murky at this lead time, this pattern should result in a cold front passing through our region at some point during the Wed-Thu timeframe with cooler temperatures looking likely for the second half of next week, with dry conditions also continuing.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

CIGs should remain just above MVFR at CDS through midnight while VFR conditions prevail at PVW and LBB through midnight. The potential for additional convection at the terminals will diminish significantly after sunset with the exception of LBB. Storms currently over Lamb county could at the least move into the vicinity of to possibly over LBB by 01Z. As confidence is not extremely high at the moment, no mention has been added in the TAFs, but the TAFs will be amended if the storms do not dissipate. IFR CIGs are expected to move in at all terminals after 06Z and remain through late Saturday morning before clearing to VFR.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.