textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop this afternoon across the Caprock, where they will track eastward through the late evening.

- Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A thunderstorm watch has been issued for the far southern Texas Panhanle and much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains thru 11pm.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Unlike yesterday, mid-level moisture seems to be on the rise this afternoon as satellite imagery displays the presence of mid-level clouds developing across the region. Similar to yesterday, water vapor imagery analyzes the upper level trough translating through the Canadian provinces with the base of the trough extending into the Southern Plains. This will be where the better large-scale ascent looks to reside, nonetheless, we still expect perturbations to move through the flow aloft into the area this afternoon and tap into the residual rich low-level moisture. Which combined with a diffused dryline and surface low scooting into the southwestern South Plains will serve as the focus points for convective initiation this afternoon. Clear skies will make way for warm highs this afternoon while warm-moist southerly surface flow continues, with highs expected to climb into the mid 80s while dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s once again. These warm temperatures and modest dewpoints will work to destabilize the environment this afternoon with NAM and RAP MUCAPE values up to 2500 J/kg. Additionally, forecast soundings across the area suggest steep mid- level lapse rates on the order of 8 to 9 C/km with bulk shear magnitudes around 35 knots support thunderstorms capable of golf ball sized hail and strong winds up to 70 mph. Although the primary hazards will be large hail and strong winds, we cannot completely rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two, given forecast soundings showing decent low-level shear values. This threat will be maximized mainly with any discrete cells that are able to develop early this afternoon or along any merging boundaries tracking through the region. CAMs are a bit uncertain in regards to the timing of storms developing with 3/4 of the models suggesting a later initiation after 5 PM while a 1/4 of models have initiation around or just before 4 PM. This forecaster seems to think that initiation will likely be a bit earlier than what most of the models suggest given initiation is already ongoing in the Permian Basin in addition to a notable axis of moisture/lift moving into the region by WV imagery. There will be two areas for development, first across the southern South Plains near the surface low then another area later in the afternoon off the higher terrain in NM moving into the region. Most models have both these areas congealing into a linear mode by the evening, similar to yesterday, while growing upscale as storms translate off the Caprock. As this happens, we will likely see the wind threat increase and the hail threat decrease slightly. Storms will likely move out of the Rolling Plains and far southeastern TX Panhandle by the early morning hours. Patchy fog looks to fill in behind these storms as low-level stratus develops across much of the area as we see RH values near 100% and light winds. Fog will diminish after daybreak with another hot day expected Sunday. Upper level ridging will continue to build in leading to an increase in heights and thickness values, which combined with warm southerly flow will aid in highs in the mid to upper 80s. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances rippling through the flow aloft Sunday afternoon combined with the upslope component to the wind may allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to move in from the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Although flow aloft remains on the weaker side, so the big factor is if storms can hold together before reaching western portions of the FA. If they are able to hold, marginally severe winds and small hail cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm temperatures along with daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms seems to be the main theme of the extended forecast package this afternoon. By late Sunday, an upper level ridge will begin to build over portions of the Desert Southwest region. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the southeastern CONUS while a surface low persists across central New Mexico. As a result, we expect moist upslope surface flow to continue with southeast winds around 5 to 15 mph each afternoon through early next week. As a result, we expect rich low-level moisture to continue being transported into the region with dewpoints progged in the 50s and 60s for much of the region while the dryline lingers across eastern New Mexico. By Monday an H5 shortwave looks to translate northeastward into portions of the Four Corners region, while out ahead of the parent trough noticable perturbations ripple through the flow and into the area. As a result, upslope driven thunderstorms along the higher terrain are expected to develop Monday afternoon. Although flow aloft will likely remain weak, it is possible that these storms will reach portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The mid-level wave will translate into portions of the Caprock regions by Tuesday, bringing increased chances for precipitation to the region as we see H3 to H7 moisture move in with this system in addition to better forcing for ascent. As for mid to late week next week, ensembles continue to depict daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock as the mid- level wave slowly translates northeastward into the Southern Plains. However, guidance is a bit messy with the placement of this scenario so confidence remains low at this point in time in regards to timing and coverage. As for temperatures through the extended, expect warm highs in the 80s and 90s to prevail through much of the week, with the exception of Tuesday as a weak FROPA moves into the region through the early morning hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Chcs for SHRA/TSRA continue thru at least 05Z at KLBB/KPVW and 10Z at KCDS. Overnight BKN/OVC250 will settle in and last through at least mid morning tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the SSE/SE with speeds up to 15kts.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.