textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Warm and dry through the weekend.

- Additional chances for showers possible Monday and Tuesday as well as next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Should be a quiet and warm day. Saturday will start out with upper ridging overhead in between an upper low off the coast of Baja Mexico and a secondary upper low swinging over northeastern CONUS. Upper ridging aloft will prevail as the upper low to the west of the region slightly shifts to the south. Models indicate a drier Saturday compared to previous forecasts. As the low to the west shifts, subtropical moisture will fill in overhead. Precipitation chances were forecasted to return to portions of the South Plains as a shortwave translates overhead. However, models indicate the shortwave will get absorbed into northerly flow before reaching the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, we can expect a dry Saturday. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s again across the region with the help of breezy southwesterly surface winds through the afternoon. Tonight will be warmer with lows in the 40s to lower 50s as stratus fills in across the region, hindering radiational cooling.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The well above seasonal normal temperatures are expected to continue through much of the long term with the possibility for rain chances. The long term forecast will start with a warm and quiet Sunday, similar to Saturday. The upper low off the coast of northwestern Mexico will push over land Monday and continue to translate northeast towards our region. Subtropical moisture will fill in overhead with southwesterly flow aloft. Models are in agreement with the upper low transitioning into an open short wave over central Texas by Tuesday. Sadly, this would keep precipitation chances to the south and southeast of our region. Compared to previous forecasts, NBM continues to decrease PoPs for late Monday through early Tuesday with only slight chances over southern portions of the Rolling Plains and South Plains. If models continue with this progression, can expect PoPs to decrease even more for future forecasts. Following the departure of the upper short wave, slight upper ridging will take over giving way to dry and warm conditions through Thursday. precipitation chances and "cooler" temperatures will be possible by the weekend as an upper trough translates over the Rockies towards the region through mid- week. Currently, ECMWF has the upper trough passing over the region while GFS has the trough deamplifying just before reaching the CWA. If the ECMWF progression occurs, we could see the return of rain showers to start the weekend while the GFS track would keep the region dry. At this time, NBM has moderate chances for rain beginning Friday, although can expect changes in future forecasts as this is still a week out.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.