textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through much of Friday.

- The severe weather threat is low, with heavy rainfall garnering a risk for localized flash flooding through sunrise Thursday, especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler temperatures and daily storm chances will continue through the weekend, before drier and warmer conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A rather messy, weakly forced pattern continues this afternoon through Friday. Broad upper troughing extending southwestward to a broad upper low over northern Mexico dominates the current pattern. The subtropical ridge will begin to flatten this afternoon through Friday as a progressive upper low/shortwave pushes eastward across southern Canada. This will create more zonal flow just to the north of the FA and pull the upper low over northern Mexico more northward. What little lift there is associated with the upper low will allow for continued isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the FA. Most development will be along remnant outflow boundaries where recent convection has not worked over the environment. Convection will remain mostly disorganized and mostly low topped through mid afternoon. Think late fall/winter weak convection along the Gulf Coast. Some additional vertical growth will be possible as the upper low moves closer to the FA through Friday as upper heights lower. The threat for severe storms remains very low as the only decent parameter is MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg. The high side for shear is up to 20 knots at best. The most likely severe threat will be wind gusts up to 65 mph with wet microbursts. Heavy rainfall does remain a threat as PWATs remain well over 1 inch area wide, but the overall threat will be low unless storms begin to train especially over areas that have received an abundance of rainfall over the past several days (Terry, Lynn, and Garza counties). Overall better rain chances are expected Friday night as the core of the upper low moves over the FA.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Rain chances move east of the FA by Saturday afternoon/evening as the upper low transitions to an (still broad) open wave and we end up on the west side of the axis. Upper ridging will dominate Monday through mid to late next week. This will allow the summer heat to return to the region with highs reaching into the mid/upper 90s. While there are no rain chances in the official forecast, unorganized diurnal convection will be possible. A slightly more active forecast may be in store late next week as upper troughing slowly pushes eastward across the western CONUS.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon through the end of the TAF cycle. Confidence is too low for a mention in the TAFs, but any storm that affects a terminal will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and erratic gusts up to 50 knots.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.