textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Much warmer temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday, with a few isolated storms possible off the Caprock as well.

- Unseasonably hot conditions arrive next week with record- breaking high temperatures possible by next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Water vapor channel imagery highlights dry and stable flow aloft in place over our area early this afternoon ahead of a compact mid/upper level low currently over NW Mexico. Surface flow has returned to southwesterly which will allow temperatures to warm nicely into the 70s by early this evening. Quiet weather continues tonight with lows near seasonal averages. Warmer temperatures are expected on Friday with highs reaching into the mid 80s to near 90 given slight midlevel height rises and continued modest southerly surface flow. By afternoon, a surface trough axis is progged to extend from eastern NM through the South Plains region and up into western OK. This feature will result in a narrow zone of enhanced low level confluence which will persist into the evening as a modified weak front moves southward through the TX Panhandle. Enough moisture will exist in the midlevels to support some modest convective growth over the SE TX Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains on Friday evening, but the very dry lower atmosphere and weak large-scale forcing should keep any storm activity very brief and isolated. Still, a strong wind gust or two may be possible given the high-based nature of any storms and the deep and dry sub-cloud layer.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

On Saturday, the aforementioned upper low will be transiting eastward over the Big Bend region, and will simultaneously begin to open and phase with the broader longwave troughing in place over the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, a secondary shortwave trough will move over the southern Rockies, in turn deepening a surface trough over eastern NM. This will result in generally stronger southwest surface flow which will boost temperatures to even warmer levels compared to Friday, with highs Saturday afternoon expected to be in the low to mid 90s. The upper shortwave should provide sufficient forcing and moisture to support another round of isolated or scattered storms on Saturday evening which may clip the far SE TX Panhandle, but most of this activity will remain to our northeast over OK. A cold front will then pass southward through the region on Sunday bringing a relatively modest cooldown for the second half of the weekend. Some model solutions indicate potential for a few showers or weak storms on Sunday given lingering midlevel moisture and an approaching upper level wave, but this too looks like it will be concentrated almost entirely to our east given a strong capping inversion in place locally.

Early next week, broad upper ridging will build just to our west, with a warming trend consequently expected to begin on Monday. Unseasonably hot temperatures will then arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, with afternoon highs likely to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most of the region. Given the presence of ridging overhead, the forecast remains dry during at least the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.