textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Pleasant and unseasonably warm Thursday.

- Widespread rainfall is expected late Friday into Saturday, along with a few thunderstorms.

- Dry, warm, and breezy conditions return next week increasing chances of enhanced fire weather.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The rest of the overnight period will be quiet with light south to southwesterly winds. Winds will gradually shift to the west through the early morning hours in response to a surface low sitting north of the region over the Texas Panhandle. Upper ridging remains firmly in place keeping mostly zonal flow over the region as a positively tilted trough swings over western CONUS through the day. Thursday will be much warmer compared to the past couple of days. Slight thickness increases from the upper ridging and west to southwest surface flow through the day will aid in warming temperatures to well above seasonal normal (~15-20 degrees). Highs will be in the 70s for much of the region. Highs in the lower 80s is possible for some localized areas off the Caprock. The quiet and warm conditions will continue through tonight. Radiative cooling will be hindered by mostly cloud skies keeping lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A glob of closed lows spinning off the coast of California will likely produce widespread rainfall over the region Friday and Saturday this week. Ensemble guidance has narrowed its spread as this system crosses the southwestern US Friday into Saturday as it emerges onto the Plains increasing confidence on the precipitation chances and timing of precipitation. There does remain minor differences in deterministic guidance but the result at the surface remains similar. A 115-125kt upper level jet streak will progress across Arizona and New Mexico during the day on Friday with large scale ascent and isentropic lift spreading overhead as early as Friday morning. As the upper level jet streak moves overhead, lift is forecast to peak Friday evening into early Saturday morning. At the same time, a quasi-stationary front will be draped somewhere across West Texas although the exact position is too difficult to forecast at this point. Nonetheless, this front will likely enhance any precipitation in vicinity of the front. Large scale ascent will continue through Saturday morning and into the afternoon until the trough axis moves overhead. Guidance continues to indicate a potential for thunder throughout the event favoring the Rolling Plains but also includes a slight chance on the caprock. Instability values will only be on the order of a few hundred J/kg off the caprock but is sufficient enough for thunder chances. Furthermore, NCAPE values will be very low due to the nearly saturated soundings which would support relatively weak updrafts. Following the end of the precipitation on Saturday afternoon, a cold front will plow through the area bringing blustery northerly winds. However, increased solar insolation on Sunday may bring warmer temperatures.

At the moment, early next week and possibly the entire week looks to see enhanced fire weather concerns. Southwest flow aloft along with a number of short wave troughs moving across the Intermountain West onto the Central Plains will support nearly daily surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies. This will result in an increase in dry downsloping surface winds and very warm temperatures. Details are still too early to determine, but we may be in for an extended period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.