textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 821 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Northerly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, will persist through the morning before gradually decreasing.

- Elevated fire danger for areas east of the I-27 corridor this afternoon.

- Colder on Saturday with some flurries possible, then mostly mild and dry through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 821 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

We have allowed the Wind Advisory to expire on schedule at 8 am. Post-frontal northerly winds have dropped down into the 15 to 30 mph range, with gusts occasionally in excess of 40 mph. Northerly winds will remain solidly breezy (sustained at 20 to 30 mph) through the morning before gradually decreasing through the afternoon hours. A few spots, primarily off the Caprock, could flirt with low-end advisory (sustained in excess of 30 mph) through the morning, but the worst of the winds for the day have already moved through. The northerly winds are advecting in dry air, and by this afternoon the RH will dip into the teens off the Caprock. Where the windiest and driest conditions will exist, from the southeast Texas Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains, a period of elevated fire weather will occur and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 6 pm. The cooler temperatures, and the fact that the wind speeds will be decreasing by the "warmest" and driest time of the afternoon, will limit the overall fire danger.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Friday night) Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

After temperatures well above normal Thursday, Friday looks to bring much cooler weather with it. Large scale troughing will continue to dominate over the eastern half of the CONUS, while a pair of shortwave troughs wobble around the center of the low across Great Lakes region. As a result of the southeastward propagating waves, a cold front surging south from eastern CO ahead of hurricane-force gusts and widespread blowing dust should arrive in our panhandle counties around 3-4 AM ahead of strong N winds, perhaps advisory levels. Behind the front, winds will veer out of the north, becoming breezy around 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH not out of the question. One of the biggest uncertainties regarding the forecast Friday is just how strong the wind speeds will be. However, the strongest wind speeds look to be confined across much of the northern Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma as the core of the upper trough remains to our northeast. Both the H7 and H8 wind maxima remain focused across central Oklahoma, with the H8 core clipping portions of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. If the core of the trough creeps farther southward we could see higher wind speeds move in. Regardless, a breezy and chilly day is in store. Given the airmass behind the front will be very dry with dewpoints in the single digits and some sub-zero readings along with breezy north winds, elevated fire weather concerns are likely. Primarily elevated concerns are expected as the cooler temperatures and ERCs around the 50th to 74th percentile limit critical fire potential. Although localized critical spots cannot be ruled out across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle given minimum RH values around 10 percent. Overnight, the cooler airmass in place combined with clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for max radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to dip into the upper teens to upper 20s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday opens with a chilly surface high settling over the South Plains marked by 850 mb temps of around -7C at Childress to -4C in Denver City. This cold dump occurs ahead of a potent upper trough and 140 knot upper jet in northerly flow that fortunately speeds off to our southeast by Sunday allowing a quick recovery in temps. Until then, we'll have to contend with an expansive stratus layer Saturday morning that could linger through the afternoon and potentially cap high temps much lower than our forecast. Although the mid-level are initially dry before daybreak, ample height falls with DPVA ahead of the trough axis are forecast to cool the mid levels enough for saturation resulting in a snow-bearing layer around 700-600 mb. Add to this a steady axis of Fn ascent at H7 as progged by higher res models and the stage appears set for some snow mainly farther north in the TX Panhandle while our northern row or two of counties has to contend with drier low levels supportive of flurries. The NAM is likely overdone with stratus camping out most of the day thereby locking highs in the 30s, so we'll keep with the remaining models and their theme of thinning stratus through the afternoon with highs in the 40s. Lows Saturday night still get downright cold in the teens even as the surface high exits ahead of light SW winds.

Southwest breezes for Sunday spell milder highs in the 60s until a backdoor cold front arrives Sunday night via a distant shortwave trough curling across the Corn Belt. This front knocks highs back to the 40s for Monday until the UA pattern deamplifies and yields a flatter/semi-zonal structure over the southern CONUS by Wed and Thu. There's a slim chance this transition directs a subtropical impulse our way, but for now we like the mild and dry NBM solution which has good support from the global ensemble means.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

High winds will continue through 14Z at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with winds gradually diminishing thereafter. VSBY restrictions from BLDU will improve quickly at KLBB in the next two hours. However, blustery winds will persist through the early afternoon, with northerly gusts to 30 kt expected at all terminals. Winds will finally diminish by dusk.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.