textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Elevated-to-critical fire danger expected for most of the Caprock and the northern Rolling Plains this afternoon.

- A quick round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday night into Tuesday night off the Caprock. Some storms could be strong to severe.

- Blustery winds are expected mid-week, with a warm-up to follow into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Low stratus/fog has finally eroded across the FA as dryer air begins to work in from the west. We should also begin to see winds become more breezy by early to mid afternoon as a surface low breaks from the surface lee trough and move southeastward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. These breezy winds and dry conditions will create critical fire weather concerns across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to continue as planned. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset as mixing is lost and the surface low moves northeastward into Kansas this evening through tonight. The upper low currently centered off the west coast of Baja will continue moving eastward through the rest of today before moving more northeastward late tonight into Tuesday afternoon. South to southeasterly surface winds ahead of the upper low will help return moisture to the FA, especially off the Caprock where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected. This will be focus for potential severe convection late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. A dryline is progged move westward across the FA by early Tuesday afternoon and will coincide with the timing of the upper low moving into eastern New Mexico. The proximity of the upper low will help to trigger convective development along the dryline which is expected to be across the Rolling Plains. The environment will be good for sustaining convection given moisture availability, surface convergence, and upper diffluence. The primary threat will be hail upwards of 2 inches or greater and winds up to 70 mph. Areas on the Caprock are expected to remain dry with the severe threat being mostly limited to the Rolling Plains. Any storms remaining by the late evening should exit east of the FA by midnight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The approaching upper low will be east of the FA by sunrise Wednesday. A cold front will quickly move through the region behind the passage of the upper low and will help to cool Wednesday's highs into the 60s area wide. Windy conditions are also likely behind the front as post frontal height rises around 6-7 mb/3 hours are progged. Winds could easily approach Wind Advisory criteria by mid morning. Windy conditions are expected to persist through at least mid afternoon, after which the surface pressure gradient will relax. A surface high will settle over the region by Wednesday night and will allow for morning lows to drop to freezing/low 30s across much of the Caprock, mid/upper 30s off the Caprock. The forecast will remain fairly benign Thursday through Saturday as northwesterly upper flow dominates. Global models are in fairly decent agreement with amplifying an upper shortwave as it moves from the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into the Midwest Sunday resulting in another windy FROPA Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Breezy southwest wind speeds around 15kts-20kts will prevail through sunset. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023.