textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Warm with chances for isolated to scattered storms this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler with daily chances for storms through the week into the weekend.

- The severe weather threat remains low, although small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall may accompany any storm.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning displays convection ongoing across portions of the northern TX Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle. As a result from this, an outflow boundary has began to cross into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle allowing winds to back out of the NE late this morning. Synoptically, not much of a change with upper level ridging still remaining on hold across much of the region, where it is expected to shift slightly eastward late this afternoon in response to the upper low tracking across northern portions of the Intermountain West. As a result, steering flow will become more south-southwesterly, although remaining relatively week through the late evening. Overall surface winds will maintain an easterly component to them, despite the lingering outflow, allowing for increased gulf moisture into the region with dewpoints progged in the upper 50s to mid 60s across much of the Caprock regions. Given geopotential heights near and just slightly above climatological normals, in addition to the southerly component to the wind and clear skies, will allow for quite the warm-up this afternoon. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, with potentially triple digit heat being attained across the low-lying Rolling Plains.

Subtle perturbations tracking through the main flow across eastern New Mexico, combined with rich low to mid-level moisture in place, and the upslope component to the winds will work to generate thunderstorms this afternoon to our west. CAMs suggest that there is potential for some of these thunderstorms to make their way to the TX/NM state line by late this evening into early morning hours Wednesday. However, this forecaster is a bit skeptical on the coverage of precipitation given the weak steering flow aloft, which would prevent storms from reaching our area. By the looks of it, there is a 50/50 split between hi-resolution guidance whether precipitation reaches our area and given what was previously stated above, doubts are a bit higher than this time yesterday on precipitation. As a result, definite NBM PoPs seems a bit generous, so will limit to chance PoPs across the region. One thing to note, depending on where the lingering outflow is setup this afternoon, there is the potential for storms to fire off this area of weak convergence. Additionally, warm temperatures and high dewpoints will work to destabilize the environment, with MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. Suggesting storms that develop may become severe, despite the weak shear in place, with quarter sized hail and winds up to 60 mph possible.

Thunderstorms that are able to move into the region early Wednesday morning will likely decrease in coverage as they track eastward across the Caprock through daybreak. Mid to upper level clouds will likely overspread by daybreak which along with any lingering precipitation will keep Wednesday cooler with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. There is a chance that if precipitation is limited overnight through the morning the cloud deck, if any, will diminish quicker and result in a faster warm up. If this happens, areas across the Caprock could see warmer highs than what is currently forecasted. Additional chances for precipitation are expected once again Wednesday afternoon, primarily west of the I-27 corridor, as a stronger H5 disturbances tracks through the northern Texas Panhandle. Towards the late evening, there will be another round of storms that try to move into areas across the Caprock from the higher terrain. Although weak steering flow once again looks to limit the overall threat of this. Storms that are able to develop and/or move in will track from west to east, where they may grow upscale through the night as the LLJ begins to ramp up. Storms that develop will have the potential to become severe given the decent instability in place, with large hail and strong winds serving as the primary threat. As storms grow upscale overnight, the threat will then turn to more of a flash flooding concern given PWATS around 1" to 1.5".

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Warm with daily chances for precipitation seems to be the main theme for the extended forecast package late this morning. By the start of the extended, we will begin to see the blocking pattern break down as the center of the upper level high shifts into the southeastern CONUS in response to an upper level trough translating east into portions of north-central Mexico from Baja California. An H5 shortwave trough within the main flow out ahead of the parent trough will translate into the region Thursday, attempting to tap into the residual moisture in place before the main trough tracks in later Friday. Deterministic guidance seems to be in better agreement compared to this time yesterday, nonetheless confidence still remains low with the run to run difference in evolution and timing. Despite this, ensemble guidance is still hinting at the potential for widespread precipitation through the weekend, therefore have opted to leave NBM mentionable PoPs as is for the time being. Until we see better indication from guidance in regards to timing and coverage. Instability parameters look weak through the extended, with the main threat for storms being the potential for flooding given the rich moisture in place with PWATs above an inch in place. Precipitation chances will decrease by Sunday with drier and warmer conditions expected by early next week as upper level ridging begins to move back in and amplify across the Plains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

There is a very small chance of isolated storms late this afternoon but confidence and coverage is too low to mention in the TAF at the moment. Higher chances of storms will emerge early Wednesday morning as storms move into the region from the west. KLBB and KPVW stand the best chance at seeing any storms during this time period. If storms do pass over these terminals, brief MVFR flight conditions could occur.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.