textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Heat builds through Thursday ahead of daily storm chances starting Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

After below-normal lows once again Tuesday morning, northeasterly anticyclonic flow remains the story for Tuesday and Tuesday night east of H5 high along the AZ-NM border. The H7 high meanwhile will drift over the South Plains on Tuesday and in turn bring warmer thicknesses to the forecast area. Barring some afternoon cumulus off the Caprock, sunny skies should be the rule allowing highs to soar into the mid/upper 90s across the board. If there is one dimple in the armor, it involves an axis of deeper mixing near a surface trough that clips the far southwest Texas Panhandle by late afternoon and evening. PoPs remain silent at this time, but there is a remote chance of convective temps being reached near this trough as shown by some hi res guidance. Minimal CAPE and high cloud bases could yield a few pinhead showers or sprinkles, similar to what we saw late Monday afternoon southwest of Lubbock. Mostly clear skies and slightly milder lows await Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Wednesday and Thursday remain the hottest days of the week thanks to the upper high to our west flattening in response to strong zonal flow occupying the northern CONUS. This process will direct a portion of its heat dome our way on southwesterly winds in the lowest 10k feet. The one bit of good news is that the earlier potential for Heat Advisories off the Caprock has decreased. A lee trough across east and northeast New Mexico with troughing also at H7 could focus storms in the heat of the day, but the chances are very low that these survive to our doorstep thanks to such weak steering flow. A similar pattern awaits Thursday, at least until the evening when models favor a more pronounced shortwave trough reaching the TX Panhandle complete with some storms grazing our N-NW counties. As the upper high retreats on Friday, a slightly more unsettled NW flow develops aloft which looks better for rain chances over more of the area by the evening and overnight. NBM keeps Friday's high temps nearly identical from Thursday which is odd given the retreating high and cooler numbers from ensembles and MOS. Thereafter, the H5 high sets its sights for the Black Hills this weekend while amplifying to nearly 600 dam. This will open our door to a more moist and unsettled easterly flow aloft complete with slightly cooler highs and daily storm chances through Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR and light southeast winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.