textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Hot temperatures will persist through next week with values likely exceeding 105 degrees off the caprock.

- Slight chances of storms will exist across the southern Texas Panhandle during the evening hours Wednesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The combination of a surface front and favorable upper level flow will bring slight chances of precipitation back in the forecast. A strong upper level ridge currently centered over Arizona will start to amplify on Wednesday. This will allow flow aloft locally to veer more to the northwest. At the same time, a short wave trough will be diving southeastward out of the Rockies onto the Central Plains. A cold front will slide southward extending from southeastern Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle. Strong upslope flow on the front range into the Raton Mesa will initiate convective development during the early afternoon. The increasingly more favorable mid and upper level flow will allow this convection to drift southeast possibly making it into the southwestern Texas Panhandle during the evening hours. Storms are expected to be considerably weaker by the time they reach West Texas. Therefore, chances of severe are low but not zero with a slight downburst wind threat. The other forecast issue for Wednesday will again be hot temperatures. Thickness values are progged to tick up another 20 meters. Areas off the caprock will likely see temperatures at or above 105 with some areas approaching warning criteria of 110.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The upper level ridge will continue its amplification trend through the rest of the week centered over the four corners resulting in very warm temperatures staying in place. In fact, very little variation in temperatures is expected through at least early next week. Forecast maximum temperatures will be near record values over the next week. The aforementioned surface boundary is expected to become quasi-stationary over the Texas Panhandle Thursday and Friday keeping slight chances of convection in the forecast. However, predictability of the placement of this boundary is low. The expected convection each afternoon will likely affect the placement of this boundary in addition to residual outflow boundaries that will be present.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions continue, with west-southwest winds this morning becoming southerly by midday. Some mid and high clouds may stream in from the northwest late in the evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.