textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Hot and dry conditions expected to continue through mid-week before a slight cooling trend through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily west of I-27, Thursday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Not much of a change to the short term forecast package this afternoon with the synoptic pattern continuing to favor hot and dry weather conditions thanks to the 595 dam upper high positioned across the Desert Southwest. This pattern looks to continue through at least early Tuesday afternoon, before we begin to see the upper level ridge scoot eastward in response to shortwave troughing developing near the California coastline. As a result, we can expect hot afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday looking to be slightly warmer thanks to a slight increase in thickness values as lee cyclogenesis promotes slightly breezy south-southwesterly winds Tuesday afternoon. No precipitation is expected through the short term thanks to subsidence provided by the stubborn upper high locked in place over the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through much of the work week, with the hottest temperatures occurring around mid-week as we see an uptick in heights and thickness values as the upper ridge and area of high pressure centers itself in the vicinity of the Caprock regions. In combination with breezy southerly surface flow we can expect highs to become hot across the area, in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. With the hottest afternoon temperatures fixated off the Caprock, inching close to heat advisory level criteria given 850 mb temperatures around 32C to 35C. A slight change to the upper level pattern is expected to occur towards the end of the work week as an H5 shortwave trough dives into the western CONUS, allowing flow aloft across the region to become oriented southwesterly. As a result, geopotential heights along with thickness values will decrease while a modest plume of monsoonal moisture transports itself into the region thanks to southwesterly flow at the H3 to H7 layer. Increased moisture across the region will promote the chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through late evening Thursday through Saturday. Steering flow will remain weak, generally less than 20 knots, which will limit thunderstorm activity from expanding eastward into areas off the Caprock. Storms will likely remain fixated west of the I-27 corridor, as they develop off the higher terrain and slowly make their way into areas across the Caprock. The severe weather threat remains low at this time, however MUCAPE up to 1200 J/kg suggest that an isolated storm or two may have the potential of becoming marginally severe with strong downburst winds given inverted-v profiles.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR next 24 hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.