textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Widespread low clouds tonight with some fog near the TX-NM border.

- Dry and much warmer through this weekend with fire weather concerns Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Low stratus was returning for an encore tonight on a broad and moist southeasterly fetch. The dryline at 10 PM had already retreated into the high plains of eastern NM after some honest attempts at breaking the cap Tuesday afternoon near Morton. Soundings through early Wednesday morning favor a stratus event due to steady winds near the surface, but this flow collapses toward the TX-NM border which when combined with the edge of stratus nearby points to radiation fog potential. Inserted patchy fog mention here through mid-morning until mixing transports drier SW winds to the surface. This drying will scour away the remaining stratus and lead to the dryline mixing to near the edge of the Caprock by peak heating before stalling nearby as it encounters thicker moisture. Similar to Tuesday afternoon, background ascent remains very meager despite the passage of a weak upper ridge which offers negligible height falls in our area. In the lowest few hundred millibars, the dryline circulation alone should struggle in lofting parcels through a warming EML progged to reside from 750-700 mb. As such, PoPs will be kept silent which jives with the majority of CAMs. The dryline will retreat once again over much of the Caprock after sunset, but another round of stratus looks unlikely as moisture is forecast to be much shallower and more modified following deeper mixing Wednesday afternoon.&&

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Stronger and deeper southwest flow arrives for Thursday courtesy of a negatively-tilted upper low lifting across eastern Montana. This will sweep the dryline much farther east than Wednesday resulting in very low minimum relative humidities in the single digits. NBM winds were nudged higher from 15z-00z to give more justice to the deep and dry mixing tapping higher momentum air aloft. A slowing cold front may manage to infiltrate our northern zones late Thursday night before lee troughing resumes on Friday under swift, semi-zonal flow. Guidance agrees in this lee trough developing into a weak surface low anywhere from the TX Panhandle to the South Plains on Saturday. There is concern that global models are underestimating a backdoor front Friday night/Saturday morning across our northeastern zones that could easily throw a monkey wrench into Saturday's high temps. On top of this, a conditional threat of dryline and/or frontal storms could emerge in these areas later in the day if this backdoor front lingers. The NAM tends to perform better with these shallow, but impactful cool air intrusions, so later forecasts will keep an eye on this potential. Although five days out, Sunday is looking quite windy and dusty as a shortwave trough races across the Four Corners in even stronger westerly flow. This would sweep the dryline out of area and open the door to higher-end fire weather potential.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGs will continue at all three terminals through mid-morning, before clearing skies lead to the return of VFR conditions. Southwest winds will increase by late morning, with speeds around 15 to 20 knots expected and continue through late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

After strong RH recoveries into the 90s to 100 percent Wednesday morning areawide, a dryline will exit New Mexico and stall near the edge of the Caprock by mid-afternoon. Behind the dryline, breezy SW winds of 15-20 mph with RHs falling to around 10 percent will lead to elevated to occasionally critical fire weather concerns on the Caprock. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM CDT for much of the Caprock.

Generally poorer RH recoveries Wednesday night will contribute to a greater fire threat for Thursday over much of the region, especially as SW winds jump to 20-25 mph Thursday afternoon and minimum RHs fall into the single digits. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for all but the far southern Rolling Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>036-039>041.