textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Cool and cloudy with a risk of light precipitation on Monday. Perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the southern Rolling Plains

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Ridging is evident across the central CONUS on Monday into early Tuesday morning whilst a subtle weakness in the ridge moves out of the Mogollon Rim into NW Texas by Tuesday morning. Plentiful low level moisture is poised over S TX this Sunday evening and guidance suggests that we should things starting to cloud up before 12Z/Mon. As the aforementioned weakness approaches, this adds a bit of reinforcement to the moisture advection which ultimately keeps clouds in much of the day. While the blend does want to hold pops in, it should be remembered that only a hundredth of an inch would verify such a forecast. Looking at forecast soundings with about a 5000' moist layer which is capped with only weak omega fields (isentropic ascent) the mode might be a bit more sprinkles or drizzle than anything else through the day. Chances might be a bit better in the southern Rolling Plains and some thunder can't be completely ruled out though confidence is low. At this point, there isn't any potential of much more than that of a light wetting across the vast majority of the CWA. The clouds will keep temps on the cooler side (mainly in the 60s) but it will feel more moist than experienced on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Looking ahead Tuesday morning finds a healthy low off the NORCAL/OR coastline with ridging along the spine of the Rockies. The eastern periphery of the low will become more negatively tilted as it makes its way through CO/WY by Wed and the Dakotas into Friday. To its south, zonal flow remains over the southern half of the CONUS. Perhaps by Saturday, the mid level flow might finally to start to become modestly more southwesterly. There are indications of the storm track becoming more southerly into early next week.

In terms of sensible weather, we'll see dry conditions this week with warming temperatures day over day. Wednesday will probably the breeziest with at least some fire weather potential mainly west and perhaps more volatile on Thursday in the NW. The Dakota low should yield us a fropa by Friday morning with cooler temperatures for Friday though quickly rebounding Sat. While Sunday could see an uptick in precip chances, it's not terribly encouraging this point.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Increased low-level moisture moving in from the south will aid in MVFR to IFR CIGS at KLBB by daybreak, then by mid-morning at KPVW. KCDS will remain on the northward extent of low CIGS, with low confidence in stratus reaching the terminal, therefore have opted for no MVFR TAF mention.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.