textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Winds will weaken through the rest of today, with a chilly overnight period expected.

- Warmer temperatures return on Sunday and Monday with elevated fire danger also likely.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances possible beginning Monday and continue through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Blustery north winds will gradually weaken through the rest of today as cool surface ridging builds southward into the region. This will make for a pleasant and uneventful afternoon and evening weather- wise, with temperatures still expected to peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s today. Tonight, the combination of light winds and mainly clear skies will bring a relatively chilly overnight period with temperatures falling back into the 30s across the region. This cooldown will be short-lived, however, as the overall pattern flips back towards above-average temperatures on Sunday. This will result from a bit of mid/upper level shortwave energy transiting over the southern Rockies which will in turn deepen a compact surface trough over SE Colorado, bringing a return of southwesterly low level flow to our region. These winds will be relatively tame over most of our area, but it will be a bit breezy over the SW TX Panhandle where some elevated fire danger may develop as a result by Sunday afternoon. Regarding temperatures, most locations will see highs in the 70s Sunday, with a few locations likely to reach 80 off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The main focus of the long term package is the return of shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Monday before the possible return of fire weather danger for the weekend. We will start off the work week with temperatures back in the 80s with some areas over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and north Rolling Plains could see highs in the lower 90s on Monday. A lee surface low developing late Monday morning over northeastern NM will tighten the pressure gradient giving way to breezy winds through the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Monday afternoon/evening and continue through mid-week. As the aforementioned surface low gradually tracks northeast across Kansas, breezy surface winds will shift from southwest to the south. Subtropical moisture will fill in over the region with mostly zonal flow aloft shifting to the southwest as an upper low off the coast of Baja Mexico begins to shift east across the Desert Southwest towards the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible the latter half of the day Monday with isentropic lift from the southerly surface flow and sufficient subtropical moisture. Slight chances will begin late Monday afternoon over portions of the South Plains before expanding across much of the region overnight. Models continue to be in agreement with the progression and timing of the upper low. Models indicate the upper low is progged to pass over head Tuesday before exiting towards the Central Plains where it is expected to transition to an open trough. Upper ascent from this upper system is expected to prolong shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday afternoon with chances tapering off west to east as the upper system exits the region.

An upper shortwave passing over the Dakotas will push a cold front through the region Wednesday with the post frontal high quickly filling in over the region effectively drying out conditions. The aforementioned upper trough will be absorbed into northerly flow giving way to mostly zonal flow aloft again. As for temperatures, we will see a decrease in temperatures following the front Wednesday. However, this doesn't last long as 80 degree temperatures, breezy southwest to westerly winds, and possible fire weather danger look to return by the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR will prevail through at all sites. Relatively strong north- northeast winds at the start of this TAF period will gradually weaken through the rest of today, then become light overnight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.