textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- A few showers and thunderstorms remain expected for Tuesday, mainly across the southern South Plains. No severe weather is expected.

- Severe storm and flooding potential returns Thursday through the weekend, with the latter looking the most favorable.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Higher cloud cover will persist overnight along with light southerly winds and chilly lows are expected in the mid 40s. Low level moisture will increase through the day Tuesday. However, that remains the only parameter that is somewhat favorable for storm development. Instability will be unfavorable due in part to the aforementioned cloud cover as well as overall cooler high temperatures in the 60s. A shortwave will provide minimal forcing by the afternoon hours and CAMs indicate the most widespread precipitation developing across the Southern South Plains before dissipating as it tracks farther east. Much of it should not make it past US-87. Outside of some brief heavy downpours, severe weather is not expected. Quiet conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday which will be the last benign day of the week. Zonal flow and drier air will bring pleasant conditions, with warmer temperatures generally near 80s with breezy southerly winds.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Our usual active April pattern will begin to take shape on Thursday. An upper low will approach the northern California coast triggering a number of shortwaves out ahead of it across the Rockies. Moreover surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will drive low- level moist SE flow over the area. Thursday afternoon/evening storms look to be more scattered storms as the forcing/moisture will not be at their maximum yet. Much of Friday looks capped and thus more quiet until later in the evening. At this time, the pattern will become significantly more favorable as the aforementioned upper low starts to move southward along the California coast and a deeper fetch of Pacific moisture will move into the area. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist late Friday through Saturday. Even once this low moves onshore and becomes absolved by the main flow, another Pacific low will track in right behind it and continue the conducive atmospheric environment through Sunday. All hazards will be in play if this materializes including flooding, damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. That all said, it still remains 5- 7 days out and things could always significantly change between now and then. However, these are all large-scale features which generally means the long-range models should have a fairly good handle on them.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

South winds and VFR will persist through this TAF period. A band of light rain currently well to the southwest of the terminals at 11z will slowly advance east-northeastward through the rest of today. Some -SHRA will be possible mainly at KLBB through about 20z before precipitation exits the region by this evening, with thunder currently appearing unlikely. BKN to OVC will also continue all day, but CIGs are expected to remain VFR aside from some very brief drops within any heavier rain showers.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.