textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Still hot this afternoon with isolated storms in the southern Texas Panhandle.

- Dry and hotter next week with Heat Advisories likely off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Chances of storms are much lower today given the lack of any surface convergence that has been observed the past several afternoons. The best chance of any convection today will be over the extreme southwestern and south-central Texas Panhandle where a mid-level moisture plume remains overhead. Near the surface, a low level theta- e ridge will continue to exist across this area as well. A deeply mixed boundary layer will still yield around 1000-1500 J/kg of instability within this low level theta-e axis. However, the lack of surface convergence will make it difficult to intitate storms later this afternoon. CAM guidance is insistent on developing very isolated convection in this region so we have opted to include an isolated mention of storms for this afternoon. For Sunday, the mid- level moisture plume will be shunted west of the area as the upper level ridge makes a slight southward movement putting an end to our daily convective chances. Surface dew points will be able to mix out more off the caprock easing the probability for a heat advisory on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The upper level ridge will remain firmly in control of our weather through the end of July. The center of the ridge will remain around the quintuple state region of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado through mid-week then migrate more westward towards the four corners. Temperatures will jump well above seasonal averages with lower 100s area wide through the week likely resulting in heat advisory criteria. As the ridge trends more westward, chances of precipitation may be introduced next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Continued VFR with mostly light southerly winds, occasionally gusty during the afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031-032.