textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Hot and dry early this week with record highs possible Wednesday.

- Storm chances arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, with additional chances later in the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The center of a broad 500 mb high was poised over the far southern TX Panhandle late this morning, while its 700 mb counterpart was parked in southeast Kansas. The latter feature is why a segment of monsoonal moisture remains draped over the western TX Panhandle this morning in relatively moist SW flow. Despite this moisture lingering near our NW counties, it now appears stronger subsidence will win out today and suppress storm development, so PoPs were removed. Little change unfolds tonight and Labor Day as the aforementioned highs remain in their usual locations with no notable change in intensity. Both min and max temps will remain a solid 5-10 degrees above normal across the board under mostly clear skies with occasionally gusty afternoon southerlies.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

High temps creep up beginning Tuesday as the H5 high amplifies to around 596 dam squarely over the forecast area. Not until Wednesday does this high flatten and split into two entities - one taking aim on the Desert Southwest with the other heading for the Ozarks. Regardless, our high temps remain toasty as the H7 high along with drier air at the top of the mixing layer arrives overhead. The latest NBM has warmed and now puts Wednesday's record high of 102 at Childress in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Lubbock's record high for this day is 99 which is also within reach. There is also a signal for convective outflows and/or a weak cold front to reach portions of the southern TX Panhandle late in the day Wednesday. These boundaries along with steady cooling aloft from weak height falls supports 20-40 PoPs from Wednesday evening through Thursday.

Ensemble spread regarding a zonal H5 ridge axis remains a concern for Friday and Saturday as models are struggling with this feature and its impact on any additional PoPs for these two days. By late in the weekend, global models are in decent agreement with a trough lifting out from the Great Divide while spreading lower heights our way. NBM's PoPs capture some of this unsettled pattern beginning Saturday night, before a potentially wetter and cooler signal brews late next weekend and beyond as southwest flow aloft aligns with a cold front and monsoonal moisture.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR will prevail again this TAF cycle. Southeasterly breezes this evening will veer southerly late, then southwesterly by Monday morning before snapping back to the southeast Monday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.