textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Cool and breezy conditions continue this afternoon.

- The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock late tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Temperatures warm back near normal next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Fall came in with enthusiasm this morning with widespread low temps in the 40s and blustery north winds. Winds will remain elevated through at least mid afternoon before gradually decreasing as surface high pressure begins to settle over the FA. Surface temps have remained cooler than expected through noon with most areas on the Caprock still in the mid to upper 40s and in the low 50s off the Caprock. There is still time for temps to warm, but cloud cover would need to clear before the end of peak heating, and satellite is showing the opposite.

The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a warning for tonight and Saturday morning. There is some concern with temperatures dropping to freezing or below across the southern half of the warning, mostly due to cloud cover. Models continue to hint at clearing skies after sunset just as the surface high begins to settle over the region. If skies do indeed clear, there should not be too much of an issue for temps to drop to freezing or below on the Caprock. Drier air continues to work its way into the FA with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 20s and still slowly dropping. This will help temps drop given clouds do clear.

Winds will be slow to veer to the south Saturday with winds remaining mostly light and generally out of the north. This will help to keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The forecast Sunday and beyond remains fairly benign. Upper ridging will remain overhead through most of the coming week and will help to highs by mid week to the mid 70s on the Caprock and low 80s off the Caprock with morning lows back in the mid 50s. Another upper disturbance will begin to approach the FA by the end of the forecast period and could bring additional rainfall, but models continue to differ from run to run given the forecast being nearly a week out. In the event that rain chances increase, amounts will not be nearly what was observed over the past few days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Strong northerly winds around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will continue through the early evening hours before decreasing the rest of the evening. Overnight into tomorrow, winds remain from the north, however weaken significantly to around 5 to 10 knots.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>041.