textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 449 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Dry and quiet weather continues this week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures return back to near normal Wednesday, then again Friday, behind a series of cold fronts.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tranquil weather remains the theme for Tuesday as a slow-moving upper low over the Davis Mountains shifts its sights for the Hill Country by Tuesday afternoon. This will occur ahead of stronger northerly flow preceding a trough and cold front diving south through the Great Plains. The smattering of high clouds still over the region associated with the low will depart through the morning leading to full sun along with even milder highs. A pre-frontal surface trough developing in the southern TX Panhandle will veer light winds NNW through the afternoon before the front sweeps south across the area during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. Following our recent chilly streak of lows in the teens and 20s, low temps should hold above freezing for a change Tuesday night as winds remain steady overnight and dewpoints tick higher with FROPA.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The long term forecast package remains on track early this morning with the FA finding itself beneath northerly flow aloft, as an upper level trough amplifies over the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile off to our west, an upper level high will park itself over the PacNW. As a result of this synoptic pattern, not much is expected to occur across the region, the main forecast message will be the regulation of temperatures throughout the week as a series of shortwaves round the base of the upper level trough across the NE CONUS.

By the start of the extended Wednesday morning, the first shortwave will begin diving into the Great Lakes, swinging a cold front southward into the Texas Panhandle region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Hi-resolution model guidance depicts this front pushing into our northern row of counties just after midnight, making its way through the southern portions of the area around daybreak. Therefore, temperatures will be nearly 10 to 15 degrees cooler from what we are expected to see Tuesday as post frontal gusty northerly winds usher in a cooler airmass from the north. NBM continues to be rather warm given the scenario, so opted to blend in NBM 25th to align better with cooler MOS guidance. Expect wind speeds to increase to around 15 to 25 MPH, gusting around 30 to 35 MPH, behind the front as heights become tightly packed and the H8 wind maxima encompasses the eastern portion of the CWA. Similar to temperatures, NBM continues to under estimate wind speeds, therefore opted to blend in CONSMOS to account for the gusty winds. The cooler air mass will remain in place overnight, as winds calm and skies remain clear, max radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to dip below freezing across much of the FA. By Thursday, temperatures jump back into the 60s and 70s, about 20 degrees above normal for January standards as thickness and height values subtly increases as the upper ridge to our west expands partially eastward. In addition to the surface high surging southward into the region, increasing subsidence across the South Plains. The secondary wave will spiral around the southern periphery of the low over the Canadian Provinces Friday, sending an additional cold front to our area once again Friday morning. Compared to the first front, models diverge a bit on the overall timing of this front, although the general consensus is the FROPA arriving early Friday. Therefore, will opt for no change with NBM cooler temperatures in the 50s to low 60s Friday. Thereafter, a series of shortwaves will continue to track down the base of the amplified trough across the Upper Midwest, which will allow northerly flow to prevail aloft as while heights and thickness values remain stagnant. Allowing for temperatures around or just slightly above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s to continue through the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.