textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- A few thunderstorms continue across the region overnight, diminishing Sunday morning.

- Additional storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening mainly off the Caprock.

- Much cooler temperatures and daily chances for showers and storms will continue Monday through most of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Ongoing weather this evening continues to overperform expectations so we'll not make this too long. Broad southwesterly flow aloft is noted across the south central states as an upper level low drifts across SERN ID/WRN WY. This feature is expected to weaken as it moves into the northern plains by sunrise Monday. This will leave us in a zonal flow regime in the mid levels. The evolution of this evening's (Saturday) activity will play into the potential evolution of storms on Sunday. The CAMs have really struggled this evening whilst the GFS appears to have the better handle on the evolution that we've seen so far. That guidance shows a Pacific front pushing in Sunday morning followed by a standard cold front easing in around lunchtime. Indications are, by late afternoon, we'll see thunderstorms fire across the region, perhaps favoring our eastern half. Given forecast sounding, strong downburst potential will exist along with at least some risk of sub-severe to possibly severe hail. At this point, we'll probably intitate with 70mph winds and quarter size hail.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

High pressure will build once again across northern Mexico on Monday while another low comes ashore across California. This will increase monsoon moisture from late Monday peaking Wednesday focusing a bit to our west, thence moving closer into the late week. This, in turn, will yield above average precipitation (storms) activity for the week. If you're looking for sunny skies across West Texas, this isn't the week. The risk of the stronger downburst days looks to diminish as the week progresses as LCLs sharply lower with increased RH given the lower high temperatures. In fact, we have a number of days where highs may stick to the 70s across portions of our area. Granted, the guidance has been a bit overzealous on cooling temperatures in the extended this fall, but eventually, fall will take hold.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Lingering convection overnight should stay clear of all terminals, with just an outside chance of thunder through sunrise mainly at KLBB. Another round of TSRA is expected Sunday after 21z, but will leave mention out of the TAFs at this time with most convective impacts expected to remain to the south and east of the terminals. VFR will otherwise prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.