textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Showers and a few storms increasing through early Sunday on the Caprock.

- Lingering rain chances Monday, drier midweek, then rain chances return by late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Similar to Friday evening, storms were lining up across central and eastern New Mexico ahead of a slow-moving upper low poised in northern Arizona. As a shortwave trough rotates through the base of this low and ejects to its east on Sunday afternoon, the low will begin curling northeast and transition into an open wave in the central Rockies by Sunday night. This modest eastward translation doesn't sound impactful for us, but it's enough to steer a richer layer of mid-level moisture and improved ascent our way.

Scattered-to-numerous showers and a few storms should first impact our far western counties after midnight before expanding over more of the Caprock through the morning hours. Ascent will be tied to a shortwave trough near El Paso as of 10 PM. PWATs on the Caprock are pushing 200 percent of normal with tall ELs, deep warm cloud depths, and unidirectional flow. All of these factors support flooding, yet the fly in the ointment remains inconsistent signals for where the heaviest rain falls. A minority of CAMs paint training convection across our northwestern counties Sunday morning where swaths of 1-2 inches of rain are possible (flash flood guidance remains higher at 2-4 inches), while the broader consensus favors totals under 1 inch.

As we shift into the afternoon and say goodbye to the shortwave trough, subsidence becomes more prominent and our PoPs trend lower. The next round of precip should emerge Sunday night in far eastern New Mexico and the western panhandle as the fringes of the upper low graze these areas. Our northwestern counties are included in this nocturnal precip round once again which could renew minor flooding woes. High temps Sunday will be curbed in the 60s for much of the Caprock under thick stratus and breezy south winds.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Following one last shortwave trough affecting the region on Monday with rain chances reaching beyond the Caprock, rain chances dry up for Tuesday and Wednesday under drier and more stable southwest flow. This milder and drier theme for midweek looks short lived as the southern jet stream amplifies in response to deep troughing occupying the West Coast. Combined with a return of ample Pacific moisture (including a potential tap from a tropical wave), this pattern is favorable for another regional precip scenario by the final few days of October. No cold fronts are on the horizon anytime soon, and dewpoints hold in the 50s most days and nights. This points to mild nightly lows with daily highs returning to near-normal territory by Tuesday and remain so through Halloween.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and low clouds are expected to move in to PVW/LBB late tonight into Sun AM, and linger through the rest of the period. Precip could start as early as 08z, but appears most likely between 12-18z. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely at PVW/LBB, and IFR is certainly possible - but did not go prevailing IFR with this TAF update. Thunder chances are non-zero, but too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF. At KCDS, precip chances are lower and arrive later in the period (Sun PM), and the MVFR ceilings are expected to stay off to the west. Southeasterly winds persist through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.