textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
- Continued hot and dry through at least mid-week.
- Some opportunities for increasing thunderstorms chances late week
SHORT TERM
(Rest of tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
High pressure remains in control over our part of the state on Sunday with a weakness extending from MO into SE TX and that will be the best opportunity for rainfall along with points north and northwest of the CWFA thanks to residual monsoon moisture across the northern periphery of the high. Here in northwest Texas, dry and hot will prevail. Highs will still run about 10 degrees above seasonal norms though below heat advisory criteria. Incidentally, guidance continues to overperform a few degrees on the MxT values, so there's that too.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Not much change is anticipated for the start of the extended on Monday morning with the morphology/positioning of the upper level high largely static. While there remains subtle differences in the deterministic guidance, particularly with regards to the weakness in the ridge to our east, things do not look good for much of change of weather until perhaps late week where POPs may edge up given the shifting of the high toward the east (yielding at least some monsoon potential) as a trough comes ashore the west coast.
It should be noted that we've just started downward on the mean high temperature values based on seasonal averages. Does this mean the heat is on its way down for good? No, not at all. We can still get 100+ degree temperatures well into September, but at least it's the first steps toward autumn. The MJO just had a brief transit through phase 5 which could suggest some sort of front around the 25th of August. It was a rather weak transit actually quickly shunting from phase 2 to phase 5 (both tending to suggest fronts about 21 days out) over the course of a couple days, but if you're looking for some hope, there it is.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
No weather impacts to aviation through Monday morning.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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