textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 555 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
- Temperatures will trend hotter through mid-week.
- Slight chance of evening storms across the southwestern Texas Panhandle Wednesday through Friday.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
An upper level ridge will more firmly assert its grip on the region today by shutting down convective chances. The center of the upper ridge will edge closer to being directly overhead this afternoon acting to suppress attempted convection. A number of residual outflow boundaries were still present across the region from overnight Texas Panhandle convection. However, the most notable was still located north of the FA over the central Texas Panhandle. Additional convection will be possible along this boundary this afternoon farther from the influence of the upper ridging. This upper level ridge will shift overhead during the overnight hours and then continue moving west during the day on Tuesday. This will bring the hotter temperatures to the area both on Tuesday and Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
The upper ridge will continue drifting west and settle near the four corners around mid-week. As a result, northwest flow aloft will strengthen increasing chances of precipitation. At the same time, a short wave trough will drop down through the Central Plains attempting to send a cold front to the area around Thursday. A ribbon of mid level moisture will be present over the southwestern US through the Central Plains which will promote the development of convection on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. With the stronger northwest flow aloft, there is a slight chance this convection will make it into the southwestern Texas Panhandle during the evening hours from Wednesday through Friday. Models are in fair agreement in moving the center of the ridge back eastward over New Mexico.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
VFR and light winds will continue.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.
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