textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Breezy and a bit cooler Wednesday behind an early day cold front.

- Confidence in the potential for rain showers and thunderstorms early next week is low.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Water vapor imagery late Tuesday evening highlights a developing rex block taking shape over the west coast as a relatively compact upper ridge builds over CA and a larger upper low deepens over the Baja peninsula. This evolution will allow flow aloft over West TX to veer more northerly over the next 24 hours as a longwave trough axis currently over the Great Lakes region shifts southeastward. An embedded shortwave trough diving southward over the high plains will drive a cold front through our region early Wednesday morning, while also bringing an increase in midlevel cloud cover area-wide and perhaps a brief pre-dawn sprinkle to areas off the Caprock. Otherwise, another dry day is expected across the region. Post- frontal north winds will be relatively slow to strengthen, but will nevertheless reach solidly breezy levels by midday with gusty conditions persisting through early Wednesday evening. Although cold advection will not be particulary noteworthy, this cold front will still pack a bit more punch than what we saw on Tuesday, so highs Wednesday will be modestly cooler with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will quickly weaken by sunset as a ~1032 mb surface ridge builds overhead, with clearing skies bringing a seasonably chilly Wednesday night with overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The forecast for the end of the week and the weekend is on track, with little change necessitated with this package. There remains uncertainty with the potential for rain showers early next week, however. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a collapsing Rex Block over the Great Basin and the far northeastern Pacific Ocean, with the decaying cyclone expected to wobble offshore Baja Sur while the apex of the ridge begins to gradually deamplify. North-northwesterly flow will persist aloft, with strong subsidence shunting vertical mixing heights amidst full insolation. At the surface, an east-west-oriented trough will be located across the TX PH, with a westerly breeze expected to aid in boosting high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s; and the shunted mixing heights will prevent warmer temperatures from coming to fruition. A weakening cold front is then forecast to drift into the CWA Thursday night, with frontolysis nearing its completion as it arrives. The arrival of this front will transition winds to the north, although CAA will be NIL, with Friday morning lows 5-10 degrees warmer than the prior morning, depending on locale. Benign weather continues to be forecast Friday through Sunday, with the Rex Block having completed its transition into a low-amplitude ridge by Friday. The net rise in geopotential heights as this shortwave ridge shifts eastward into the Great Plains will result in temperatures between 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms, although highs will remain well-short of prior records despite the anomalous warmth.

Global NWP guidance remains bifurcated on the evolution of the decayed cyclone over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean this weekend and into early next week. While there is a consensus with respect to a net increase in DPVA emanating from the exit-region of the Pacific jet extension and inducing geopotential height falls, it remains unclear on how amplified the shortwave trough will become and whether or not a closed low develops. There is also considerable disparity with how far south the trough will dig, with differences on the order of several hundred miles. Ergo, discrepancies for the QPF footprint early next week remain intact across the region. NBM PoPs have been retained, but have otherwise been capped at slight chance (20-percent), as the overall synoptic-scale evolution would foster WAA-induced rain showers given the increasing divergence associated with the pipeline of southwesterly flow aloft. However, this is a matter of whether or not it occurs over the CWA or farther south and east. As a result, confidence in PoPs for early next week remains low with this prognostication due to limited predictability.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Winds will generally remain light through most of the overnight hours, then become northerly and increase modestly early Wednesday morning as a cold front passes through the region. North winds will then increase more dramatically late Wednesday afternoon and remain relatively strong through the rest of the day. There is slim chance of a period of MVFR CIGs at KCDS on Wednesday morning, but probability of occurrence is too low for TAF mention at this time. VFR will prevail otherwise.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.