textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Cold front tonight with a few thunderstorms possible off the Caprock. - Potential for an active dryline Thursday with severe storms.

- Fire concerns increase for Friday followed by daily chances for rain through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Temperatures at noon were warming nicely through the 70s and 80s on light SW winds. Both LBB and CDS should get close to their mutual record high of 88 degrees later today before a cold front shoves south this evening. Surface observations showed a dryline organizing along a Morton-Plainview-Groom line, with the cold front descending from the northern TX Panhandle. This front is on track to enter our panhandle counties by 5-6 PM and slowly clear our southern row during the pre- dawn hours. With the dryline hanging out near the edge of the Caprock during this FROPA and the arrival of an upper jet's RRQ in SW flow along with a nocturnal LLJ, ascent and mid-level cooling should grow to support a few elevated storms. If storms develop, post-frontal MUCAPEs of around 1500 J/kg with a good chunk of this CAPE residing in the hail growth zone points to severe hail being a possibility, but we won't bang the gong for this as convective coverage appears limited. NBM is too bullish with PoPs for this setup, so PoPs were tapered to better reflect the spottier coverage of storms per high res guidance.

Convective chances dwindle from north to south around daybreak as cooler northerlies deepen and stabilize the column. Following a bout of morning stratus, Wednesday's cool surface high will be swift moving enough to bring a return to SSE winds and low-level moisture by late afternoon. A few showers and storms may sneak into the far southern Rolling Plains by this time, but these chances appear poor under shallow shortwave ridging in SW flow. The NAM/MET are overdone with stratus all day and very cool highs in the 50s/60s, so the warmer NBM numbers look best as we expect thin stratus to break out through the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Wednesday night opens with WSW flow aloft backing more SW in advance of an upper trough digging over the Great Basin. This wave has the potential to make things interesting for Thursday as gulf moisture will be drawn north and deepen throughout the day. Until then, enough of this moisture ascending isentropically ahead of a warm front looks supportive of nocturnal showers and storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly off the Caprock as the LLJ should be veering and directing the better moisture transport east of Lubbock. Low stratus is likely to envelop a good portion of the area Thursday morning with fog and drizzle possible before this layer thins through the day south of the warm front allowing enough heating and destabilization ahead of a dryline. Again, the NAM/MET are very heavy handed with stratus which keeps us capped all day, but this is not supported by the global guidance which presents us with enough destabilization for an active dryline complete with supercells thanks to favorable shear. NBM PoPs were smoothed and capped at 50 percent for Thursday afternoon before jumping to likelies off the Caprock Thursday night as a lead shortwave trough lifts through ahead of aggressive dry slotting. Being in the post- dryline environment on Friday with breezy SW winds to boot, fire concerns will be higher especially on the Caprock where fuels have been more receptive to fire behavior lately. A Pacific front during the day on Friday may nudge temps lower than forecast, but this shouldn't be enough to offset the otherwise favorable fire weather conditions.

Friday night sees a Canadian front that speeds into the Trans-Pecos for Saturday keeping us cool and potentially unsettled with shower chances in our southern zones. Our gut feeling says these northern fronts in March are often much stronger than the global guidance and NBM suggest, so we could very well end up much cooler and bone dry all day Saturday as the front races much farther south. This could have impacts on PoPs for Sunday and beyond, but for now the NBM holds onto daily rain prospects all weekend into early next week under a moist SE fetch from the gulf and weakening SW flow aloft as upper ridging emerges.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through sunrise Wednesday. Beyond sunrise Wednesday, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at LBB and PVW, but CDS could see CIGs drop to near MVFR and last through the rest of the TAF cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Winds will increase out of the west today to near 15 mph with some gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Combined with highs in the mid-to- upper 80s and humidities falling to 10-15%, elevated fire weather concerns are expected across western portions of the Caprock, with near critical fire conditions over the far SW Panhandle. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle until 7 PM this evening. A cold front moving through Wednesday morning will bring cooler temperatures and diminishing northerly winds during the day, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.