textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 502 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Critical fire danger expected to continue through early this evening.

- Warm but quiet Wednesday ahead of a cold front bringing cooler temperatures Thursday.

- Warm and breezy conditions bring possible elevated to critical fire weather this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Windy and fire weather conditions are on track for today. West to southwesterly winds will continue to pick up through this afternoon up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible contributing to critical fire danger and possible patchy blowing dust. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this evening for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and portions of the Rolling Plains. Upper ridging to the west of the region will begin to flatten through today shifting northwesterly flow aloft to mostly zonal. The surface low responsible for the strong winds today will gradually shift to the southeast across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle this evening resulting in the pressure gradient weakening allowing winds to decrease through the evening. Quiet and pleasant conditions expected overnight with moderate to breezy westerly winds and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The surface low will continue to trek southeast over Oklahoma and northern Texas Wednesday, shifting surface winds to the north by late Wednesday morning. An upper shortwave translating over the Rockies will trigger the development of another surface low late Wednesday afternoon. This surface low will give way to breezy westerly winds across the Caprock while north to northeasterly winds will prevail off the Caprock. Elevated fire danger will be possible from central South Plains to the NM/TX border where the strongest winds are expected. Well above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Near record breaking high will be possible for Lubbock. The record high for Lubbock set in 1917 and 1989 is 86 degrees with a forecast high of 83.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

We will see a short break from the 80 degree temperatures Thursday. A broad upper trough passing through central CONUS will swing a cold front through the region early Thursday giving way to breezy north to northeasterly winds and highs in the 70s across the region. Sadly, these cooler temperatures do not last long. By the end of the week, upper ridging will build over western CONUS bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Slight height increases due to the upper ridge and the return of south to southwesterly surface flow will warm temperatures back into the upper 70s and 80s over the weekend. Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible this weekend with warm temperatures, dry conditions, and moderate to breezy winds expected. The start of the work week is expected to be cooler as another cold front is progged to push through the region late Sunday through early Monday. However, the temperatures will only cool down to the 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Critical fire danger will continue through this evening. Most favorable conditions will occur across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with westerly sustained winds near 30 mph in the afternoon, with gusts to 45 mph and humidities in the single digits. Although elsewhere across the area will see slightly lighter sustained winds around 20-25 mph, widespread very low humidities along with relatively favorable fuels will still constitute further critical fire weather. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this evening for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and portions of the Rolling Plains.

Elevated fire danger possible Wednesday afternoon over western portions of the South Plains. Winds up to 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible along and just east of the NM/TX border. Otherwise, fire weather concerns will return this weekend.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>031-033>037-039>041.