textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- A few isolated storms may develop this evening, but better chances for storms (some severe) arrive Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Other than a brief and modest cooldown on Friday, hot temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Another cold front will bring renewed rain chances and cooler temperatures to most of the region early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Water vapor imagery at midday highlights a relatively flat upper level ridge extending from near the Big Bend over much of the gulf coast, with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the north-central CONUS. Broad lee surface troughing will continue to deepen well to our north through the rest of the afternoon, which will in turn sharpen the dryline as it mixes eastward over western portions of the South Plains. Although large scale forcing for ascent will be minimal through the rest of the day, it still appears likely that a few isolated thunderstorms will develop with peak heating, aided by the weak circulation along the dryline. These isolated storms currently look most probable mainly to the west and south of Lubbock, with increasing convective inhibition associated with a rather deep capping inversion reducing potential farther north and east. That being said, the presence of impressive low level moisture (dewpoints still in the upper 60s to low 70s around noon) combined with strong diurnal heating could still allow a storm or two to develop elsewhere along the dryline as well, but this is less likely. Should capping be overcome, MLCAPEs above 2000 J/kg could support a couple of strong or severe storms capable primarily of strong wind gusts and brief downpours. Some outflow interaction may result in additional pulse development into the evening, but overall convection is expected to diminish quickly after sunset.

On Thursday, a shortwave disturbance will quickly move eastward over Nebraska and the Dakotas, which will send a surface cold front southward through the plains states. Compressional warming and the presence of a pre-frontal surface trough will result in the continuation of hot conditions through much of Thursday with temperatures still expected to reach into the 90s or low 100s prior to the arrival of the front. By early afternoon, the front and associated wind shift will arrive over our southern TX Panhandle counties, then slowly shift farther south through the rest of the afternoon. Currently, our expectation is for low level convergence along the advancing frontal boundary to be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development, initially over the SE TX Panhandle and unzipping southwestward through the evening. Models have come into better agreement with storms possibly reaching the I-27 corridor and points westward by Thursday evening, but this may be a bit bullish given decreasing surface moisture with westward extent and the overall coverage of storms is still uncertain. Nevertheless, any storms which do develop Thursday afternoon and evening have a good potential to become severe with MLCAPEs likely exceeding 2500-3000 J/kg and decent (though not overly impressive) bulk shear magnitudes near 25kt. The strongest storms will therefore be capable of producing large or very large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as localized heavy rain, with the highest severe threat concentrated off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

By midnight on Friday the cold front will be positioned across our CWA, bringing continued storm chances and cooler temperatures. Low cloud cover and stable conditions are possible Friday morning. An exiting trough and zonal flow aloft should stall the cold front over the northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains Friday afternoon. The highest storm chances are over this area, as there is convergence along the cold front that could help initiate convection; however, the lack of synoptic scale lift and a capping inversion creates low confidence in storm chances.

By Friday evening the cold front will have retreated north, taking rain chances with it. A ridge building over Texas will lead to warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the mid 90s. However with mid-level moisture trapped beneath the ridge, storm chances will continue from late Saturday into early next week. On Monday, a strong upper-level trough will move in from the northwest, breaking the ridge and leading to much milder temperatures along with continuing rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Winds at KCDS/KPVW will be between 15-25G30kts from the SW thru at least 11Z followed by a decrease in intensity to 10-15kts. However, at KLBB gusty winds between 15-25G30kts from the SW will hold on thru at least 15Z followed by a decrease in intensity to 10-15kts. There is a possibility at TSRA this afternoon mainly south and west of KLBB. Confidence in this activity impacting the terminals remains too low at this time to include in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.