textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Some isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening through Thursday, especially over the southern Texas Panhandle.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected this weekend, with many locations likely seeing highs near or just above 100 degrees Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The upper air pattern early this afternoon is dominated by a relatively large amplitude upper ridge axis extending from the Four Corners up into the PacNW. The center of this ridging will gradually shift eastward over the next 24 hours as a progressive shortwave trough moves onshore over OR/WA with the ridge axis positioned directly over our area by early Thursday. The resulting midlevel height increases and continued SSW surface flow will bring a dramatic warm up compared to the past few days with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s today and Wednesday. Deep diurnal mixing will result in a very diffuse dryline establishing near or just east of I-27 both this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday, but with an almost non-existent low level circulation. A bit more notable moisture exists beneath the ridging aloft above the 600mb level, which combined with easily attainable convective temperatures could result in an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening over the southern TX Panhandle. Any convection today is likely to be very limited and brief in duration, but could nevertheless result in strong wind gusts given the very deep and dry subcloud layer. The potential for isolated high-based storms over the southern Panhandle is a bit better on Wednesday given slightly enhanced surface confluence, but a general lack of low level moisture and and larger scale forcing will again keep this activity limited in coverage and duration.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

By Thursday, the upper ridge axis will be located to our east with flow aloft expected to become more zonal as a compact upper low moves quickly eastward along the Canadian border. The surface pattern on Thursday is progged to remain fairly similar to earlier in the week, but high-based storms are expected to be a bit more widespread (though still only scattered at best) compared to Tuesday and Wednesday given stronger midlevel flow and a better defined shortwave disturbance tracking over the region. Still, convection will likely struggle to persist given the continued lack of deep moisture, though some strong wind gusts may occur beneath the more robust convective cores.

Otherwise, the main story of the extended forecast will be the continuation of unseasonably hot temperatures with highs near or just above 100 degrees expected each day from Friday through the weekend. Flow aloft is still progged to maintain a generally southwesterly direction over our area this weekend into early next week. In general, this would ordinarily be favorable for a more active weather pattern, but persistent veered surface flow will prevent any meaningful moisture return throughout this period. A few isolated storms may develop Sunday into next week especially over the Rolling Plains, but unfortunately at this time it looks like there will not be enough moisture to support any widespread rainfall over a majority of our region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR. Winds will remain slightly breezy this afternoon while prevailing out of the south-southwest, with winds transitioning towards the southeast by dusk.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.