textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Showers will continue off the Caprock overnight.

- Widespread fog is expected across areas on the Caprock. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains until noon.

- Cooler temperatures continue through Monday before a slight warm up the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Current radar imagery shows the widespread showers and thunderstorms pushing off the Caprock. These storms will continue to push east overnight before exiting to the east. Dense fog across portions of the South Plains earlier was washed out by the showers. However, now that the showers are moving off the Caprock, fog and a low stratus layer is beginning to fill in again. We are seeing a low cloud layer filling in across areas on the Caprock on multiple skycams. At the same time, some stations across eastern NM are measuring visibilities as low as 3/4 of a mile. We expect the dense fog to continue to fill in overnight and persist through late Sunday morning to early afternoon, therefore a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until noon for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. The extent of the fog for Sunday will depend on the surface winds. A weak front will push through the forecast area early Sunday effectively shifting the winds to the northeast. Currently, light to moderate winds (~5-10 mph) are forecasted for Sunday afternoon. Light winds will allow the fog to prevail longer than anticipated. Current models indicate the fog will also expand to areas off the Caprock and southern portions of the South Plains. However, at most patchy fog with some localized areas of dense fog are expected. The low stratus layer prevailing through the day Sunday and the shift to northeasterly surface flow will keep cooler temperatures tomorrow with highs in the 40s for much of the region. Areas across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains will see highs in the lower to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The cool temperatures will continue into Monday as the low stratus layer is expected to prevail. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s are expected across the area. We will see a small break in the fog later Sunday and overnight, however patchy fog will be possible again early Monday morning for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. Some localized areas could see dense fog as well. A slight warm up will begin Tuesday as upper ridging will fill in overhead with highs expected to return to the 60s by mid-week. This upper pattern change will also dry out conditions through much of the work week. Precipitation chances may return the following weekend. Models indicate the upper ridging will push east as an upper shortwave swings across the Rockies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be dependent on the track of the upper shortwave. If the shortwave passes to the north, we could get dry slotted. As we get closer through the week, models should better align with the upper pattern.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Poor flight conditions will continue through the TAF cycle. VIS is expected to improve at the terminals after 18Z but still remain at least MVFR at CDS and PVW. VIS may improve to VFR at LBB during this time, but CIGs will remain IFR to LIFR. IFR VIS may be possible at CDS and PVW after 06Z tonight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ021>044.