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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- ***A significant winter storm will start this afternoon and last through Sunday morning, with dangerous travel conditions expected.***

- Extremely cold temperatures are expected tonight and through the weekend, with wind chill values as low as 15 degrees below zero Saturday night and Sunday night.

- The event will start out with a mix of freezing rain and sleet, which will last into Saturday afternoon, with a changeover to sleet and snow Saturday evening.

- Sleet and snow, perhaps heavy, is then forecast Saturday night, making travel difficult or impossible into Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday morning) Issued at 101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a southern-stream, positively-titled trough, with a closed low embedded within, was pivoting towards Baja Sur. A large-scale baroclinic leaf generated by this trough was advecting northeastward into the southern High Plains, with light precipitation already underway as per WSR-88D imagery and recent METAR data. Farther north, an intense shortwave trough was digging southward over the Cascade Mountains, with a 300 mb jet streak analyzed at 100 kt nosing southward towards the southern-stream closed low. This shortwave trough was translating along the backside of an expansive, large-scale trough wobbling over northeastern Canada, and is expected to impinge on the closed low and cause it to transition into an open wave as the southern-stream trough pivots inland over Baja Sur by Saturday morning. The CWA is also located beneath the upshear tranche of a belt of quasi-zonal flow stretching eastward into the southeastern U.S., with a corridor of warm theta-e advection associated with the near-westerly flow within the 850-700 mb layer. An observed ACARS sounding from LBB earlier this morning observed a temperature of +9 deg C at 800 mb, which was four degrees warmer than the HRRR; and this warm nose was also observed by the 12Z RAOBs to the south and west of the CWA. Substantial changes have been made to the total snow and ice accumulation forecasts; however, a long-duration and significant winter storm is expected area-wide starting this afternoon and lasting through Sunday morning.

At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front was moving southwestward across the CWA, with temperatures falling 6 deg F within one hour following its passage. The front is currently positioned along a line from CVN-LBB-SNK, with brisk, northeasterly winds of 15-25 mph in its wake. High temperatures for today have already been reached, and the airmass will continue to cool considerably throughout the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, with lows falling into the middle single-digits to lower teens, depending on locale. While winds will diminish throughout the night as the post-frontal pressure gradient slackens, temperatures will be cold enough to result in wind chills near or below zero deg F even with a breeze between 10-15 mph. The Arctic surface high, at around 1034 mb, will gradually settle into W TX and maintain the northeasterly breeze through Sunday morning. WAA-induced precipitation will continue to increase in coverage throughout the afternoon as the baroclinic leaf emerges over the region. The initial precipitation-type will be plain rain for locales across the southern South Plains until the Arctic cold front clears to the south of the CWA within the next two hours, followed by a transition to periodic freezing rain as surface temperatures fall below freezing.

WSR-88D imagery continues to detect typical bright-banding as the heavy snow aloft descends into the aforementioned warm nose. Ice accretion rates should be light, near 0.01"/hr, as the aggregates previously grown in a well-defined DGZ aloft are shattered from the strong flow aloft and encounter the warm nose, leading to a smaller drop-size-distribution as the supercooled droplets reach the surface. The brisk, northeasterly winds will also enhance ice accretion on northward-facing structures. As the rest of the afternoon progresses, the layer between the surface and the warm nose aloft will become very cold, with 850 mb temperatures falling to or below -10 deg C, as the shallow Arctic airmass settles into the region. This will result in a transition to sleet, as the orientation of the vertical thermodynamic profiles will foster the rare occurrence of preferential refreezing of the supercooled hydrometeors that previously descended through the strong warm nose aloft. A wintry mix is forecast to last through most of the nighttime hours, with the dominant p-type being sleet, although a mix of freezing rain and/or snow remains possible, with a mix of light snow and sleet occurring across the far southwestern TX PH.

The baroclinic leaf will shift east of the CWA early Saturday morning, and an ephemeral lull in precipitation is possible for portions of the CWA as the opening shortwave trough lags behind the baroclinic leaf. PoPs have been reduced for portions of the Caprock to account for this scenario, but have been mostly intact otherwise across the CWA. Record-low high temperatures are expected Saturday, with highs peaking in the lower-middle teens area-wide; however, despite these very cold temperatures, the warm nose aloft will remain intact and favor a transition to a mix of sleet and snow by Saturday afternoon. Sleet in the presence of temperatures in the lower-middle teens creates an inverse problem versus if it were all snow, as sleet is of a lower snow-to-liquid (SLR) ratio even as it undergoes preferential refreezing within the deep sub-freezing layer, meaning it will contain more liquid water content compared to if the p-type were all snow. As a result, the compacting of the sleet and its lower SLR will facilitate icy conditions area-wide.

By Saturday evening, a transition to a mix of sleet and snow will occur, followed by all snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning, as the opening wave ejects over northern Mexico and into the TX Big Bend region. An intense band of high-level divergence will, in addition to the geopotential height falls, facilitate the production of widespread sleet and snow, some of which may be heavy, especially across the northern half of the CWA. The warm nose will remain intact, but cool entirely below freezing, within a profile favorable for prolonged, dendritic growth heading into Sunday morning. It is possible that snowfall rates exceed 1"/hr directly beneath the heaviest band as it propagates eastward across the CWA during the predawn hours Sunday. Forecast soundings are insistent on the column becoming saturated with respect to water from the surface through the mid-levels and will, therefore, be supersaturated with respect to ice beneath the intense divergence aloft. This bolsters confidence in the potential for locally heavy snow, with dendrites potentially encountering riming the effects of riming and collapsing into large plates. The back edge of the trough is forecast to emerge over W TX by early Sunday afternoon, and snow should come to an end by then, with clouds clearing by Sunday night.

The storm total ice accumulation forecast has been reduced from the previous assessment, with upper-bound ice accretion totals nearing 0.10" across most of the CWA. The icing potential from freezing rain should terminate by early Saturday morning. The storm total snow accumulation forecast, which includes sleet, has increased substantially, with upwards of one foot of sleet and snow forecast across the far southern TX PH, the bulk of which will fall late Saturday night into Sunday. The majority of the CWA is forecast to receive between 6-8 inches of sleet and snow otherwise. QPF supports SLRs near 15:1 for pure snow, with liquid equivalencies ranging from 0.5" in the northwestern zones to above 1.0" southeast of a line from Denver City to Childress for this event.

Travel will become increasingly difficult throughout this winter storm, with travel becoming nearly impossible Saturday night into Sunday. Exercise the proper precautions against extreme cold and potentially heavy snow should travel be necessary. The risk of becoming stranded, particularly Saturday night and into Sunday morning, is high, especially outside of any town or city limits.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Sunday afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Skies should clear by Sunday afternoon. As such temperatures are expected to warm to the mid or upper 20s. The Arctic air will remain in place through Monday night with temperatures likely remaining below freezing through Tuesday morning.

Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday through the end of the week as northwest flow continues to reinforce cold air in the Plains States. Highs should remain in the 40s and lows in the teens through Thursday. A stronger surge of cold air with an upper air disturbance diving southeast through the rockies has the models hinting at the possibility of wintry precipitation returning for the following weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A high likelihood of IFR will spread into the terminals during the overnight hours tonight and lasting through the TAF period. Current snow and sleet showers will lessen in intensity over the next few hours with periodic showers overnight. Precipitation may become more occasional during the daytime on Saturday with IFR remaining in place.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.