textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Light rain showers are possible this morning with heavier and more widespread rain showers expected late tonight through Friday morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected each day through Saturday, with Friday expected to be the coolest day with highs in the 40s and 50s.

- Warmer and drier weather returns Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High cloud cover remains over the region and, along with easterly surface winds, has helped keep the FA cool through the day. Cloud cover and relatively moist conditions will help to keep the region in the 40s and 50s through the early morning hours. Cloud cover should remain fairly elevated tonight as surface flow remains divergent and isentropic lifting has not yet taken hold. This will likely change mid morning with stratus lowering. This may result in light drizzle for much of the morning into the early afternoon.

The upper low currently west of the SOCAL coast will move inland later this morning and will transition to an open wave trough as it moves eastward across the Desert Southwest into the afternoon. Upper lift and diffluence will be enhanced by early evening as the upper trough begins to move over New Mexico/Chihuahua. The additional lift will allow drizzle to transition to rain with coverage becoming more prevalent early Friday morning as the upper trough moves closer to the FA. Coverage will likely be greater to the west of the FA by sunrise Friday as the upper trough will still be over central New Mexico. Cloud cover through the day should help to keep the region cool once again with afternoon highs struggling to reach into the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain chances will continue to increase across the region Friday as the upper trough continues inching further eastward. Coverage and intensity of rainfall should peak as the upper trough axis moves overhead Friday afternoon. There is still question with regards to the amount of rainfall expected. The location of the upper trough will be critical to potentially receiving a soaking rain (possibly heavy at times) to only receiving light rainfall. Areas south of the FA will likely see heavier rainfall than us as is shown by the WPC ERO. This will help to at least keep the risk for street flooding low. What is more certain is, while it is a non-zero chance, little if any thunder is expected given the stratiform nature of the rain and a general lack of instability. We will also see even cooler high temps Friday with most areas on the Caprock only reaching into the upper 40s while the Rolling Plains warms into the mid 50s. However, we may see slightly warmer temperatures if we receive less rain than is currently expected.

Any rainfall that remains Friday afternoon will quickly push eastward with the upper trough. Relatively benign weather will take hold late week into the weekend as upper ridging begins to move over the region. While this will result in warmer weather, the weekend should still be pleasant with highs only reaching into the mid 70s by Sunday. We will see highs warm back into the 80s by early next week as upper ridging and southwesterly surface winds continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

MVFR stratus should again make a run for LBB and PVW around sunrise before vanishing through noon. CDS now looks to escape this threat with low VFR ceilings by late afternoon. IFR and LIFR stratus is a good bet after sunset at LBB and PVW ahead of widespread rain and reduced visbys after the 06Z cutoff.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.