textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of this week and into the weekend.

- Low chances for thunderstorms return each afternoon and evening through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The dominant regional synoptic feature remains a mid/upper level ridge axis centered near El Paso which will not move appreciably over the next day or so. Surface flow will shift back to a predominantly southerly direction on Tuesday, which combined with a notable increase in sfc-500mb layer thickness will bring a return of triple digit high temperatures to most of the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon. Confidence in thunderstorm potential on Tuesday is very low given the close proximity of the ridge along with a more well-mixed and slightly drier atmosphere. Some solutions depict isolated storm development over the central and southern TX Panhandle near a dryline and surface trough axis Tuesday afternoon, but this could be either enhanced or disrupted by mesoscale effects from any morning convection over OK. Later on and well upstream of our area, a cluster of thunderstorms that is initially expected to develop over southern KS will dive south-southeastward through Tuesday evening, and there is a low chance that this activity cloud spread a bit westward as well and clip portions of the southern TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains during the evening. Confidence in this occurring is low, and upper level flow trajectories should maintain a strong enough zonal component to keep the majority of storm activity to our east. Nevertheless, a few storms currently cannot be ruled out especially over our eastern zones overnight into early Wednesday morning as outflow surges southward.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Confidence is high that above average temperatures (including triple digit highs) will continue through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend as upper ridging remains firmly in place to our southwest. This will keep flow aloft mostly zonal, although with a continuing modest northerly component. A few storms may develop over the Caprock on Wednesday evening as a fairly diffuse surface trough axis deepens near the TX/NM state line, but better storm chances remain to our north farther from the center of the ridge. Greater convective coverage is then expected over the terrain to our west and northwest on Thursday afternoon as more substantial shortwave energy moves over the Rockies. This activity will likely make it into our western zones Thursday evening and could spread over more of the Caprock late Thursday night as the ridge flattens a bit, but it is uncertain just how far east it will persist heading into Friday morning. Friday into the weekend, the upper level ridge axis will begin shifting eastward as troughing deepens over the PacNW region. This will result in a shift to more southwesterly flow aloft over our area which could support some isolated thunderstorm development each afternoon over the weekend. Overall though, ensembles remain in poor agreement regarding precipitation potential over the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The southern edge of MVFR and IFR ceilings should cling on at PVW and CDS for a few more hours before turning over to VFR. TS currently north of Canadian could disrupt SE winds later this morning at CDS as they spread SSE, but this appears unlikely at this time. Else, a better window for TS should open at CDS tonight and perhaps at PVW as well.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.