textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early Wednesday morning.

- Hot and breezy Wednesday afternoon with another chance for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon across the Caprock.

- Hot and dry conditions will prevail late in the week through the weekend, with a subtle cooldown and return of precipitation next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Longwave troughing will continue to encompass much of the western CONUS through the short term period, while off to the east an upper level high will remain centered over the southeastern CONUS. Throughout the day Wednesday we will begin to see the upper level ridge flatten slightly as a result of an upper level low shifts eastward across the Canadian Provinces. Nonetheless, southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Texas Panhandle region, transporting in modest subtropical moisture into the forecast area. The mid-level moisture axis will remain oriented across the Caprock, which combined with dewpoints progged in the mid 50s to lower 60s should provide enough moisture for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as subtle disturbances ripple through the main flow. In addition, a surface low to our north will aid in south- southwest surface winds across the area. With little to no chance in heights and thickness, we can expect yet another warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. In fact, a few areas across the southeastern Rolling Plains could even see a few triple digits. That being said, any convective inhibition in place will likely break by the afternoon as convective T's will be easily achievable. Forecast soundings across the area depict MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg with decent MLLR around 7 to 8 C/km. Similar to previous days, shear values look to be quite tame, with major threats being strong wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Storms that develop will track eastward through the afternoon and late evening, diminishing around midnight. A few showers and rumbles of thunder may linger through the daybreak hours Thursday. Otherwise expect quiet conditions with lows in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

By the start of the extended forecast package a similar synoptic pattern is expected as described in the short term forecast. The main difference will be that we begin to see the upper level ridge to our east begin to expand slightly westward. As a result, we will likely see drying conditions and the continuation of warmer afternoon highs through the holiday weekend. A chance for a few isolated to scattered storms will be possible Thursday, primarily along the TX/NM state line. However, with moisture not as potent as what we have seen the last few days combined with weak forcing will lead to a very small chance. If storms are able to develop, they will likely be high-based given he dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings across the aforementioned area. Therefore, main threats will be marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph. Conditions look to dry out through the end of the week into the start of the weekend as the upper level high and associated subsidence limits overall precipitation chances. However, some global models are still indicating the isolated chances for storms across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle as perturbations track down the eastern periphery of the ridge and into our area. Thereafter, things become murky with models not in agreement in regards to our next precipitation chances early next week. Will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs until guidance become more aligned with the evolution of our next storm system.

As for temperatures, expect highs in the 90s to lower triple digits to continue Thursday, increasing slightly each day through Saturday with highs by Independence Day in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees off the Caprock. By early next week, ensembles begin to hint at a cool down the potential for more widespread precipitation returning to the region. However, this "cooldown" will not do much with highs still in the 90s expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MVFR CIGS were located well south of the area and may end up remaining south of the KLBB terminal this morning. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected again late Wednesday afternoon at KLBB and KPVW. However, confidence in coverage continues to be low so no mention in the TAF was made at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.