textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1229 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Cooler through the weekend, then gradually warming next week.
- Light rain chances Saturday and Sunday for southern portions of South Plains and Rolling Plains.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be under seasonal averages with values on the order of five to ten degrees below average. This will mainly be due to easterly upslope low level winds from a sprawling surface ridge sliding southward down the Mississippi River valley. Short wave ridging will move overhead today in advance of a closed upper low sliding southward through Arizona. The upper low will continue to dive southward into northern Mexico through the day on Saturday. A fairly potent upper level jet out ahead of this system from northern Mexico into Far West Texas will bring large scale ascent focused across the Permian Basin. Some of this ascent will spread over the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains but has been trending farther southward with each model run. Mid and high level cloud cover will begin to spread over the area this afternoon with the potential for low stratus off the caprock Saturday morning. The expected cloud cover will keep temperatures below seasonal averages again on Saturday afternoon. Potential instability will be zero so only light rain showers are expected with this system.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
Not much significant weather can be expected beyond Saturday for the region. The aforementioned system will slowly eject out of northern Mexico into central Texas Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, some light precipitation may be reintroduced for the southern Rolling Plains late Sunday into Monday. Short wave ridging will then move overhead again on Tuesday as the upper level pattern becomes highly amplified. This will allow temperatures to bounce back to near seasonal averages early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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