textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast to develop Monday afternoon across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Slightly breezier and warmer conditions are forecast through the middle of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The rest of today will be relatively pleasant and quiet. A surface low across eastern Colorado has increased southwest surface winds to average 20 mph sustained across the FA and should hold through sunset before winds slightly decrease to 10 to 15 mph. These winds will help to keep overnight temps in the 50s area wide. The surface low across eastern Colorado will begin to push southward Monday as an upper low pushes southeast across Canada, pushing a cold front southward across the Northern and Central Plains. At the same time, the upper low just off the west coast of California will slowly push eastward. This will allow for weak upper ridging to move overhead and help to increase Monday afternoon highs into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds will also be on the breezy side and moreso out of the west. The combination of dry and breezy conditions will allow for elevated fire weather danger Monday mainly on the Caprock. While a RFW is not currently expected, a RFD will likely be needed. The approaching cold front should make it as far south as the Texas Panhandle by sunrise Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The cold front should make it through the northern half of the FA by late Tuesday morning before being washed away by the afternoon. This should help cool highs into the low 80s and low 90s. Westerly surface winds will then dominate Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as the upper low moves over the Desert Southwest. This will also help to create elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. The upper low over Hudson Bay will push out one more cold front through the region by late Wednesday, keeping highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s. The upper low will eventually make its way over the region by late week with models in consensus with the region seeing some rainfall. This will ultimately depend on the strength, tilt, and location of the upper low/trough and is much too early to get excited over.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR and gusty southwesterly surface flow will prevail through this TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.