textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gusts remain possible until just after midnight. Rain showers may linger through the overnight hours.

- Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible later Tuesday and again Wednesday before drying out through the weekend.

- After a slight "cool" down Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures warm up again through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Dryline convection was much more active this evening compared to previous. Current radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms along the I-27 corridor with an outflow pushing east off the Caprock. These storms are trending weaker, however if they are able to persist, they are expected to continue expanding off the Caprock. Thunderstorms are expected to clear the area before midnight with little to no forcing with the dryline retreated back to NM. However, some rain showers may persist after midnight, especially off the Caprock. Until then, downbursts and outflows producing strong wind gusts up to 50-60 mph remain possible with these storms. Once the storms clear the area, the rest of the night should be quiet. Moderate to breezy southerly winds will continue overnight. However, you could see some rogue wind gusts if outflows from this evening storms persist overnight. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging dominating southeastern CONUS while an upper trough sits along the coast of California. Overnight into Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to push eastward spanning much of western CONUS. At the same time, the upper ridging will begin to expand southwest across central to southeast Texas. This will keep subtropical moist southwesterly flow overhead.

Slight height decreases due to the upper pattern will "cool" temperatures a couple more degrees for Tuesday. Much of the region will see highs in the 90s, however the ever so lucky southern Rolling Plains will see highs in the triple digits. An embedded shortwave trough passing across the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee surface trough across Colorado. This surface trough will sustain the breezy southerly surface flow through Tuesday afternoon. A diffused moisture gradient will develop along the southeastern boundary of the surface trough as it expands south across NM and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Winds ahead of this gradient will slightly shift to the southeast. Southeasterly upslope flow as well as a passing upper shortwave will aide in developing isolated to scattered thunderstorms across higher terrain in eastern NM Tuesday afternoon before expanding into our region. As the diffused moist boundary pushes across the Caprock, CAMs indicate convergence along the diffused boundary with result in a cluster of thunderstorms developing just east of the I-27 corridor. These storms look to remain in the vicinity of the I-27 corridor through the evening as the boundary stalls.

With soundings showing an inverted-v shape, most of the thunderstorms are expected to be elevated. Similar to the past couple of evenings, the main threat with these elevated thunderstorms will be strong winds gusts. Thunderstorms will most likely be short-lived with weak shear (around 15-20 m/s) hindering updraft growth. Soundings show DCAPE values up to 1300 J/kg indicating the potential for downbursts with these short-lived thunderstorms. Severe hail is not expected with these storms, however small hail cannot be ruled out. Periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be possible, especially in the vicinity of downbursts. Thunderstorms should clear the region around midnight, however some rain showers could persist after midnight. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the mid 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The upper trough to our west will become fully absorbed back into the main flow pattern on Wednesday. Although southerly winds will remain breezy, upper heights will fall further as the broad ridge to the east will begin to weaken. As such, high temperatures will be relatively "cooler," near 90 on the Caprock and mid-to-upper 90s off the Caprock. A dryline will develop during the afternoon/evening across northeastern New Mexico and additional upper waves will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, mainly over the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. As with previous days, winds look to be the main hazard. Storm chances appear to diminish Thursday and Friday in the absence of any potent shortwaves or significant jets, so it looks to be a hot and dry 4th of July at this point. Models significantly diverge thereafter with GFS indicating an upper low becoming cutoff over the Great Plains leading to slightly higher storm chances for our area, whereas ECMWF only shows a shallow trough.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

MVFR CIGS were observed south of the KLBB terminal and were moving northward. These CIGS may make it into KLBB and possibly KPVW for a brief period this morning but it is highly uncertain how far north this cloud deck will move. Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. However, confidence in coverage is very low so no mention was made in the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.