textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Hot this weekend with possible record highs Saturday and isolated storms near the Texas/New Mexico state line.

- Daily thunderstorm chances next week favoring areas on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An upper level ridge will remain firmly in control of our weather this weekend into early next week with small chances of precipitation. The center of an upper level ridge will move overhead this weekend further warming temperatures. Thickness values will undergo a 20m or so increase on Saturday bringing near record or record temperatures. Furthermore, temperatures will likely exceed heat advisory criteria for most areas off the caprock on Saturday afternoon warranting an advisory. And although temperatures will be near record highs on the caprock, advisory criteria is not expected to be met. The presence of a surface pressure trough will bring only slight chances of convection on Saturday afternoon. This trough will be positioned from the central Texas Panhandle southwest ward into southeastern New Mexico. Significant low level convergence within this trough along with a deeply mixed boundary layer will likely garner a cumulus field. Progged instability will be fairly minimal on the caprock especially in close proximity to the surface trough. Cloud bases will be extremely high with the expected very hot temperatures promoting a strong wind threat if any storms were to develop. A strong low level jet will develop Saturday night into early Sunday morning on the order of 40kt. This may bring overnight showers to the region early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The upper level ridge will move farther east next week leading to a downward trend in thicknesses and therefore temperatures. However, temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages through all of next week. Precipitation chances for next week are looking less likely with a monsoonal plume of moisture remaining to the west and north of the FA. The highest chances will be near the Texas/New Mexico state line closest to the plume of mid-level moisture.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Light southwesterly breezes this morning will increase to around 10-15G25KTs this afternoon, backing out of the south-southwest. Although confidence is low, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW this afternoon. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.