textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Heat Advisory for all areas on Wednesday from 1 PM to 9 PM.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southern Rolling Plains from 1 PM to 8 PM Thursday.

- A cold front Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and storm chances before a warm up through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

I am sad to say that today is still on track to be a hot one. At the time of publishing this discussion, surface temperatures are in the 90s to lower 100s already. Upper ridging to the west of the forecast area will expand across the Texas Panhandle. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging and southwest surface flow will continue to heat highs the rest of this afternoon to triple digits across the rest of the forecast area. Highs on the Caprock are expected to reach 103 to 108 degrees and off the Caprock should reach 106 to 110 degrees. Luckily, it should be a dry heat as current dewpoints of mid 50s to upper 60s are expected to decrease to the 30 to 40s during the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM to 9 PM today.

The overnight period will also be warmer than seasonal normal for much of the forecast area with lows in the mid 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 80s across southern Rolling Plains. Southerly surface flow is expected to prevail through much of the overnight hours, however a lee surface low that developed Wednesday will shift to the southeast across the CWA early Thursday morning, causing variable winds across the forecast area. On the bright side, an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes region will push a cold front southward through the region Thursday. Models indicate the front should reach our northern border of the CWA around sunrise. The aforementioned lee surface low will stall the front part way through the region resulting in a wide spread of high temperatures. Highs across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle will reach mid to upper 80s while portions of the Rolling Plains will reach Heat Advisory level temperatures again. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Dickens, King, Garza, Kent, and Stonewall Counties from 1 PM to 9 PM Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon following the FROPA. Despite there not being much in terms of forcing, convective temperatures will be reached for much of the region, breaking the capping inversion. CAMs indicate isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will develop late Thursday afternoon through the evening, mainly off the Caprock. If storms are able to develop despite the little forcing and upper ridging overhead, severe thunderstorms will be possible with soundings indicating good instability with MUCAPE values up to 4700 J/kg. Main hazards possible with any severe thunderstorms are large hail up to 2 inches and strong wind gusts up to 70 mph. With PWAT values just under 2 inches, could also see periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The shower and thunderstorm chances that began later Thursday will continue through the day Friday. Instability will not be as good as compared to Thursday making severe thunderstorm potential low, however cannot be ruled out. If any thunderstorms are severe on Friday, can expect to be on the lower end of severe with up to quarter size hail and winds up to 60 mph. However, rain showers through the day is more likely. Temperatures slightly cool Friday due to a secondary push of cooler air as well as mostly cloudy skies through the day. However, "cooler" high temperatures will still be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. To make things worse, dewpoints through Friday afternoon will be in the 60s to lower 70s making it humid. Shower and thunderstorms will dwindle out by Friday evening.

The rest of the weekend will be hot and dry. Upper ridging will begin to flatten, however temperatures are expected to warm back into the triple digits by Sunday. Storm chances and "cooler" temperatures will be possible to start the work week with a possible cold front pushing through the region late Sunday through early Monday. Models are in disagreement with the progression of the front. GFS has a quicker progression with the front reaching the CWA late Sunday around midnight. ECMWF has a slower progression with the front stalling early Monday morning just before it reaches the northern CWA border. The slower progression would result in a drier and hotter forecast compared to what NBM currently has. As we get closer to Monday, models are expected to better align with the frontal progression. Until then, can expect changes to the forecast for next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ037-038- 042>044.