textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the last day of 2025.

- Strong, westerly winds between 20-30 mph are forecast across the Caprock on New Year's Day and will last overnight into Friday.

- Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Water vapor imagery as of late Tuesday evening highlights deep cyclonic flow aloft in place over most of the eastern CONUS, with a fairly large amplitude ridge axis centered over the Great Basin. Our stretch of dry and quiet weather will continue for the last day of 2025 as this upper ridge axis slowly builds eastward. The associated modest midlevel height rises and continuing westerly component to the surface flow will boost temperatures back above normal, with highs generally in the mid 60s across the forecast area. Winds will remain pleasantly light throughout the day, maxing out around 10 mph given the diffuse nature of the surface trough to our north. Pleasant weather is also expected overnight as we ring in the new year with dry conditions, light west winds, and low temperatures just a hint above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The first day of 2026 will start out in classic W TX fashion, with westerly winds expected to ramp up and last throughout the overnight hours into Friday. In the mid/upper-levels, a splitting of the jet stream will occur through a high-amplitude ridge situated over the western half of the U.S., with the remnants of a cut-off low having become absorbed into the southern-stream jetlet translating over the Desert Southwest and into W TX. The leading shortwave trough will eject over the southern Rocky Mountains Thursday, with a thick cirrus deck accompanying the ribbon of DPVA propagating over the southern High Plains. Moist, isentropic ascent will be vigorous above 600 mb and ascend through 200 mb. Highly elevated convection will be embedded within this thick overcast, with the possibility for some sprinkles across the Caprock during the morning hours as the leading wave of DPVA propagates over the CWA. Cyclogenesis will be ongoing near the Raton Mesa beneath the ejecting shortwave trough, and will generate a moderate isallobaric response, with an expectation for westerly winds to accelerate between 20-30 mph across the Caprock before diminishing in the Rolling Plains.

Secondary cyclogenesis along a northwest-to-southeast-oriented surface trough is forecast across the Rolling Plains, which will result in the backing of winds to the southeast for locales near the 100th meridian. Farther west, a Pacific cold front will cross the NM state line by the late afternoon hours as the backside of the cirrus deck begins to move off to the east. The heavily modified Pacific moisture trailing the cold front will cause RH minima to spike despite the persistent westerly winds (this is commonplace with Pacific cold fronts), and will nix any concerns for fire weather, especially as RH minima congruent with the fastest winds will already be near 30 percent in the pre-frontal airmass. Temperatures to start out 2026 will also be about 20 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs peaking in the lower-middle 70s for most of the CWA, with the exception of the far southeastern TX PH where moist advection occurs on the southeastern periphery of surface low.

Winds will remain brisk to locally strong throughout the night into Friday, and winds were once again raised from the NBM and aligned with the NBM 75th percentile, which lies within the upper-bound of the recent MOS guidance. Overnight lows were also warmed due to the persistent, westerly fetch; and highly localized gusts up to 50 mph will be possible along the immediate lee of the Caprock Escarpment during the early morning hours Friday. Farther west, a vorticity lobe emanating from a neutrally-tilting trough offshore CA will translate through southern-stream split of the large-scale ridge, resulting in tertiary cyclogenesis over W TX. This will maintain brisk winds while veering northwest after sunrise Friday, with winds finally diminishing late-day Friday as the compact shortwave trough quickly ejects east-southeastward into central N TX.

A weak cold front will move into the CWA Friday night, and will knock high temperatures down a couple of degrees Saturday, with light and variable winds. However, highs will still be well-above seasonal norms, with highs peaking in the upper 60s. Large-scale ridging will expand over the Great Plains throughout the weekend, with the jet stream returning to a phased state. Typical W TX breezes are forecast to return through the tail-end of the extended period, along with above-normal highs. PoPs remain NIL otherwise.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR and relatively light winds will prevail through this TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.