textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Benign weather through mid-week with mild temperatures and typical West Texas breezes.

- Potential extreme cold temperatures this weekend, following an arctic front Friday.

- Wintry precipitation possible this weekend, however timing and precipitation type are uncertain at the moment.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Fairly quiet weather will continue for the short term forecast. A weak short wave trough dropping southeastward out of the northern to central Rockies this afternoon will bring surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies as well as a surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico. As a result, surface winds locally will continue to swing around to the southwest and increase in speed. These downsloping winds will allow temperatures to increase over Monday's cold temperatures with values this afternoon in the 50s area wide or close to seasonal averages. The aforementioned surface cyclone will swing out into the Central Plains overnight dragging a cold front through the region. The cold front is expected to move through the area during the pre-dawn hours through mid-morning. Moderate pressure rises behind this front on the order of 4-6mb/3hr will at least bring winds into the breezy category during the morning hours. Despite the cold front, temperatures on Wednesday will not be affected much with similar temperatures expected to Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

After quiet and benign weather Thursday, with a similar day expected as the previous with mild temperatures and typical West Texas breezes. Thereafter, downright gross weather is expected to impact portions of the region Friday through Sunday. The longwave trough that has continued to dominate the eastern half of the CONUS will begin to translate east through the Ontario province and Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, off to our west, a cutoff low will continue to move onshore while shifting east. Compared to this time yesterday, there has become more uncertainty regarding the placement of this system as it approaches the region. While the 00Z ECMWF remains on track with a slower and northerly approach, suggesting the low becomes an open wave as it ejects from Baja Mexico into the Desert Southwest. Then tracking northeast into the Southern Plains, becoming absorbed into the main flow as a shortwave dives south from the Dakotas. Whereas the 12Z GFS has decided to do a complete 360 from yesterday, suggesting the low remains closed, while taking a more southern route through northern Mexico, before becoming absorbed into the main flow early next week across portions of Central Texas. As a result, this suggests that one precipitation would be delayed across our area, likely beginning Saturday. Not only that, it presents a drier solution compared to what we have seen in the previous runs. Due to the run to run difference and the spread in evolution across models, this has lead to an even bigger challenge regarding the uncertainty in timing and location of any precipitation, as well as the type of precipitation that has fallen. Nonetheless, the arctic front still looks to be on track, with models continuing to hint at this front arriving by late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Behind the front, extreme cold will await as the surface high surges southward and drawls in the arctic air from the north. Highs will likely be reached during the morning hours with temperatures cooling through the morning behind the front. Although NBM continues to cool slightly, highs on Friday remain too warm, therefore opted to blend in NBM 25th to account for the earlier FROPA timing time, as well as to blend closer to MOS with highs in the 20s and 30s. Saturday looks to be the chilliest, with highs currently forecasted in the teens. Although wind speeds look to be more on the calmer side, we still have wind chills as low as -10 degrees in some spots which would put us at Extreme Cold criteria.

Depending on the evolution of the system to our west, as it approaches, southwest flow will work to transport subtropical moisture into the region via the H5 jet. This moisture combined with the associated lift provided by the system, as well as the cooler airmass, will lead to the chance for precipitation beginning as early as Friday morning. Forecast sounding across much of the area generally support a snow profile, despite the evidence of a warm layer aloft that remains entirely below the 0C level. While these types of soundings suggest main p-type being snow, the presence of any warm nose allows for uncertainty which could allow for a brief period of sleet at the beginning of the precipitation starting. Now off to our southeast, across the Rolling Plains, forecast soundings depict a more pronounced warm nose above freezing. Thus suggesting more mixed precipitation in the form of freezing rain/sleet. However, as we potentially see top-down moistening, which should cool us to the surface, would result in the transition to snowfall at some point in time during the evening. Overall, a lot of this will depend on the timing of not only the storm system but the FROPA timing. If we see the system take the 12Z GFS approach, moisture and precipitation would be limited. While if we see warmer air advected into the region via SW flow, and the front takes a slower track, then we may see more frozen precipitation rather than snowfall. Vice versa, if we see the front blast through earlier, and temperatures plummet quickly, we could see a short-lived window for frozen precipitation before a transition into snow.

Therefore, until we see models become more aligned in the coming days as this system approaches, there is not much we can resolve regarding the timing and precipitation type and these details will continue to be assessed in the the coming days. Nonetheless, cold arctic air looks to be incoming regardless, so prepare yourself now and remember the 4Ps. Protect Pipes, Plants, Pets, and People.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak storm system approaching the area from the northwest will bring breezy southwest winds this afternoon and decreasing after sunset this evening. This system will bring a cold front through the area in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the north with sustained speeds between 15 and 20kt. At the same time, winds just off the deck will be ripping around 45-50kt creating LLWS at all TAF sites. Before the front arrives, low CIGS and visbys will attempt to make their way up into the area from the south but are expected to remain south of the TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.