textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - Cooler on Monday, then warming back to well above normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

- A few strong thunderstorms may develop Monday night especially over the Rolling Plains.

- Thunderstorm chances return each evening from Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Relatively flat upper level ridging remains firmly in place over southwest TX late Sunday evening, with another active night of convection ongoing over southwest KS and northern OK. Low level moisture will quickly return to our area overnight with strengthening southerly flow, with a heavily modified outflow- enhanced cold front on track to enter the southern TX Panhandle and adjacent Rolling Plains through the early morning hours. Low level cloud cover is expected to increase in coverage especially off the Caprock on Monday morning as this boundary continues advancing southward, with winds remaining easterly through most of the rest of the day. As a result, highs on Monday are expected to be notably cooler compared to Sunday, but there is considerable spread among short range models regarding precisely how much cloud cover develops, how quickly it dissipates, and thus how much warming occurs. At this point, we favor the cooler end of guidance for highs over northern zones, with temperatures likely only warming into the 80s over the TX Panhandle through the afternoon. A deepening surface trough over the Permian Basin may be enough to keep temperatures quite a bit warmer farther south, but it will still be cooler compared to Sunday with highs reaching into the 90s (perhaps a few locations in the Rolling Plains reaching near 100) over our southern zones.

Surface-based convection appears unlikely over our area for most of Monday given the generally cooler airmass and substantial capping. Some light rain showers may nevertheless develop mainly over the southern Panhandle through the day within a zone of modest isentropic lift behind the front/boundary. Monday evening into Monday night, a strengthening low level jet could easily support isolated or scattered thunderstorm development near and after sunset, especially off the Caprock. It is uncertain how widespread this activity might be or how long into the night it could persist, but large to extreme elevated instability and healthy bulk shear could support a few severe storms capable mainly of large hail and heavy rain late Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

By Tuesday the upper ridge is progged to build a bit farther northward with modest height rises over West TX bringing a return of well above average temperatures to the entire region. The associated midlevel subsidence will also likely prevent most if not all thunderstorm development Tuesday, with an outside chance that a couple of storms clip the TX Panhandle late Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, a broadening surface trough over most of the Caprock could be sufficient to kick off a few high-based thunderstorms over the South Plains, but the continued close proximity of ridging aloft looks likely to keep the potential for widespread convection relatively low. For the second half of the week, model consensus indicates that the upper ridge will flatten and retreat southward as cyclonic flow aloft deepens over the west coast. This evolution would result in flow aloft over our area remaining more zonal, which casts some additional doubt on storm chances late in the week. Ensembles still do indicate some potential for high terrain activity to make it to our region during the evening hours through the end of the week, but confidence in this occurring is lower compared to prior forecasts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

MVFR CIGs are likely to develop at all sites early Monday morning and persist for several hours. Low-level wind shear is also possible at all sites, however it would be brief and confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAFs. Breezy generally southerly winds this evening will switch to northeasterly Monday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.