textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Well-above average temperatures today.

- Widespread rainfall with possible thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.

- Dry and warm next week, with increasing fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

An upper ridge today combined with downsloping WSW flow will help bring highs to around 20 degrees above average, ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. SW winds will diminish into this evening. Increasing cloud cover overnight will keep Friday morning lows mild, generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. An upper trough will dig into the Desert Southwest through the day Friday. Much of the day will remain precipitation-free under mostly cloudy skies ahead of it. Highs will reach the 70s for many areas as we will remain in the warm sector of the system. Rain should begin during the late afternoon/early evening time frame as the base of the trough moves farther east and winds aloft increase. As the jet progresses, the left exit region along with increased vorticity and moisture advection ahead of the trough will provide enough for the potential development of thunderstorms across much of the area. However, SBCAPE values even on the convective-friendly NAM only reach around 700 J/kg, soundings are very saturated, and the aforementioned elevated winds should erode the skinny CAPE. As such, severe weather is unlikely.

Average PWATs will approach 1.25 inches (slightly lesser on the Caprock) by this time frame and widespread rain remains expected for our entire area which will persist through at least early Saturday morning. Models are generally in consensus of a triple point developing near the northwestern Panhandle around this time, allowing a dry slot to build into our area thereafter. The system will be relatively fast moving, however training showers and thunderstorms could inflate totals where they occur. Overall totals should fall between 0.5 and 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Outside of some lingering showers wrapping around the backside of the low, the afternoon/evening hours should remain dry. Temperatures will be tricky as winds will initially turn westerly, then northerly behind the low. The exact timing of this will help determine daytime highs. Northerly winds will first develop over the far SW Panhandle, so highs there are expected to only reach the upper 50s, while 70s will remain off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A generally quiet week is expected after the Saturday rainfall. A upper ridge will build Sunday in the wake of the trough, bringing mostly sunny skies, light winds and highs in the upper 60s. A more zonal flow aloft will develop through the remainder of the week. A number of shortwaves will pass to our north, but none of them will reach far enough south to have much of a direct impact. That said, a resultant surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday and elevated southwest winds are likely south of its center as we typically see in this setup. Otherwise, a general WSW flow pattern along with the aforementioned zonal flow aloft will allow for well-above average highs to persist. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with potential mid 80s off the Caprock. Otherwise, temperatures will slightly cool Thursday through the end of the work week as winds diminish. Given these increases in temperatures and winds accompanied by lower humidity, fire weather concerns will increase as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. West winds this afternoon will gradually weaken and turn more southerly this evening. A deck of MVFR CIGs may expand northward out of the Permian Basin towards KLBB after sunrise on Friday, but confidence in this occurring is low.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.