textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Rain chances continue through this evening for the southern Rolling Plains. Any amounts will be minimal.

- High chances of widespread rainfall are forecast Friday through Saturday night.

- A few thunderstorms may accompany the rain, but the risk of severe weather is very low.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cutoff upper low is currently tracking northeastward over Mexico. Based on its current track, much of the best forcing and moisture parameters will remain south of the CWA as is reflected with latest radar imagery and what is presently showing up over the southern Rolling Plains is largely not even reaching the ground. That said, rain chances have been retained through the evening hours for this area until the low-level jet completely departs, although totals will not amount to much. NE winds and overcast skies in the wake of a cold front will keep the remainder of the area cooler than yesterday, however above-average highs are still expected, generally in the low-to-mid 60s. Skies will gradually clear overnight, especially over the far SW Panhandle and this is where coolest overnight lows in the upper 20s will occur. Most elsewhere will fall into the mid-to-upper 30s. Winds will remain light on Wednesday and generally persist out of the SSE. An upper ridge will move over the region and some higher cloud cover may develop over the Panhandle. Overall however, a pleasant day is expected with highs again in the low-to-mid 60s. Quiet conditions will continue into the evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

High chances of widespread rainfall remain intact Friday through Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms possible. At the beginning of the period Wednesday night, the mid/upper-levels will feature a shortwave ridge centered over the central and southern Great Plains, with an amplifying, positively-tilted trough located across the western U.S. and into the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. A cirrus shield will advect over the region Thursday, with warm and benign weather expected otherwise. Restoration of the southwesterly breeze will occur in response to weak, leeward pressure falls generated by an ill-defined, shortwave impulse translating through the apex of the ridge. High temperatures will climb into the middle-upper 70s for most of the CWA, with some locales in the Rolling Plains breaching 80 degrees. Despite the warm temperatures, highs will be well-short of any previous records at CDS and LBB. The overcast will continue to thicken from the moistening of the mid-level isentropes ahead of the positively-tilted trough as it begins to dig into the Desert Southwest by Friday morning.

Rain showers are forecast to arrive by Friday afternoon as the leading band of mid-level ascent emerges over W TX, with coverage of rain steadily increasing into the overnight hours. There remains some discrepancies among the global NWP guidance as to whether or not the trough is open as it pivots into W TX or if a closed low develops. The latter evolution would facilitate a better potential for deformation banding on the backside of the system as the base of the trough crosses over W TX. This would, in turn, prolong the potential for rain showers and/or thunderstorms over portions of the CWA due to 700 mb frontogenesis. Even if the trough remains open, the rain shield should linger beyond dusk Saturday, with PoPs forecast to wane altogether during the predawn hours Sunday. In the meantime, the potential for storms has increased from the previous assessments; however, CAPE will be limited, at around a few hundred J/kg at best, and moist-adiabatic lapse rates will keep the risk of severe weather essentially NIL. No wintry precipitation is expected with this system.

Blustery, northerly winds are also forecast Saturday, as the surface front moves southward through the region. The passage of the cold front, combined with the rainfall and dense cloud cover, may result in cooler temperatures compared to what is forecast. Conditions will improve Sunday, with a return to full insolation and light winds as the shortwave trough ejects eastward into the Deep South. Dry and warm weather is then forecast heading into next week as another shortwave ridge shifts eastward into the Great Plains.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Precipitation is expected to remain south of all TAF sites this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.