textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms possible near the Texas/New Mexico state line on Sunday evening.

- Wet pattern will continue for the next several days with the best chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Bottom line for Sunday is that less coverage of storms can be expected under a more summer like type pattern. A mid level ridge axis will continue to be the primary influence on our weather for Sunday. This ridge axis will slowly move eastward across New Mexico through Sunday afternoon. The low shear and low forcing environment will also persist with broad southeasterly low level flow. This pattern will favor convection off the higher terrain of New Mexico but whether this activity will make it into West Texas is uncertain. Rising heights and warming temperatures aloft will hinder any potential convective development. Chances of this occurrence will be even less than on Saturday given the even weaker steering flow for Sunday. Deep layer shear vectors will only be on the order of 15- 20kt so any storms that do form in New Mexico will struggle to become organized. The environment over West Texas will continue to characterized by weak instability with mixed layer CAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Furthermore, weak capping may be in place based on model soundings. If any storms were to make it to the Texas/New Mexico state line, the chances of severe storms will be low. A lack of morning cloud cover will provide more sunshine on Sunday allowing temperatures back into the upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm temperatures along with daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms seems to be the main theme of the extended forecast package this afternoon. By late Sunday, an upper level ridge will begin to build over portions of the Desert Southwest region. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the southeastern CONUS while a surface low persists across central New Mexico. As a result, we expect moist upslope surface flow to continue with southeast winds around 5 to 15 mph each afternoon through early next week. As a result, we expect rich low-level moisture to continue being transported into the region with dewpoints progged in the 50s and 60s for much of the region while the dryline lingers across eastern New Mexico. By Monday an H5 shortwave looks to translate northeastward into portions of the Four Corners region, while out ahead of the parent trough noticable perturbations ripple through the flow and into the area. As a result, upslope driven thunderstorms along the higher terrain are expected to develop Monday afternoon. Although flow aloft will likely remain weak, it is possible that these storms will reach portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The mid-level wave will translate into portions of the Caprock regions by Tuesday, bringing increased chances for precipitation to the region as we see H3 to H7 moisture move in with this system in addition to better forcing for ascent. As for mid to late week next week, ensembles continue to depict daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock as the mid- level wave slowly translates northeastward into the Southern Plains. However, guidance is a bit messy with the placement of this scenario so confidence remains low at this point in time in regards to timing and coverage. As for temperatures through the extended, expect warm highs in the 80s and 90s to prevail through much of the week, with the exception of Tuesday as a weak FROPA moves into the region through the early morning hours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Residual anvil cloud cover will continue to diminish throughout the rest of the morning over W TX. VFR will prevail for the TAF period, with light winds. There is a slim chance for isolated TSTMs west of KLBB and KPVW this evening, with no impacts to the terminals forecast with this cycle.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.