textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Near record high temperatures continue today and Saturday.

- Dramatically colder weather arrives late Sunday into Monday, but temperatures will warm back above normal by the middle of next week.

- There is a low chance (up to 30%) of some light snow over southwestern portions of the South Plains on Monday, but no impactful accumulation is expected at this time.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

An upper level ridge combined with breezy westerly surface winds will bring another day of highs of 20-30 degrees above average, ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Winds will remain slightly elevated near 10 mph overnight, moderating lows in the 40s and 50s. A trough moving over the west coast will begin to approach our area on Saturday. Increased SW flow aloft should bring in a few more higher clouds as are indicated to our west on current satellite, however conditions will be very similar as today, with highs again in the 70s and 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

A pattern change finally arrives during the second half of the weekend, bringing an end to our stretch of exceptionally warm December weather. This will come as persistent ridging aloft quickly deamplifies as a sharp mid/upper level shortwave trough axis moves over the Rockies and out over the Great Plains states by Sunday afternoon. Quite a breezy Sunday is therefore in store with strong west winds first persisting during the day as a surface low over KS darts eastward, then becoming north and increasing by late afternoon as a potent cold front blasts southward through the region. Relatively mild high temperatures are still expected Sunday as downslope warming will persist through a good portion of the day, with much colder conditions arriving Sunday night and continuing through Monday. Most model solutions keep highs on Monday in the 40s area-wide, which will be the coldest daytime temperatures our area has seen in about two weeks. One forecast concern that has continued to persist in morning model runs is the low potential for some light snow on Monday over southeast NM and far west TX that may sneak into southwestern portions of the South Plains region on Monday. The forcing mechanism behind this is rather weak and largely due to some jet-level ascent overspreading a bit of trapped mid/upper level moisture. Even with a dry low level post-frontal airmass, run-to-run ensemble consistency does support maintaining low mentionable snow chances over our southwestern zones on Monday, though at this point the probability of any impacts is very low. Otherwise, it still looks like this period of colder weather will be rather short as broad ridging aloft rebuilds over the region during the middle to late portions of next week. Above-normal high temperatures return by Wednesday and look likely to continue into the new year, with precipitation chances near zero Tuesday through the end of 2025 as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR and generally light winds will persist through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.