textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday Thursday.

- Warm temperatures return to the region Wednesday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Stratus is continuing to clear from west to east across the FA with clouds expected to clear entirely by late afternoon to early evening. The dryline remains well into central New Mexico and is expected to begin pushing eastward this afternoon. The dryline should only make it as far east as the Texas/New Mexico state line by this evening before retreating. Some CAMs continue to show the possibility of storm convection forming along the dryline, but convection will have to fight the overhead ridge to develop, and at the current time the ridge is expected to win the fight.

The upper ridge will be kicked eastward overnight through Wednesday by the upper currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move inland tonight and move over the Sierras by Wednesday afternoon. The dryline will begin moving into our western zones Wednesday afternoon and should bisect the FA by the early evening. While no storms are currently expected along the dryline, the chance is non-zero. While there will be ample moisture ahead of the dryline and ample instability, upper lift will be severely lacking and displaced much further north into the Central Plains. Any storm development will rely solely on lift from the dryline itself, and it remains to be seen if even this will be sufficient and deep enough. PoPs will be kept below mention for the time being. What is more certain is the potential for widespread 90 degree highs Wednesday afternoon and dry conditions behind the dryline.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The surface pressure gradient along the lee surface trough that is responsible for the dryline will tighten Thursday as the upper low transitions to an open wave trough and pushes eastward towards the Central and Northern Plains. This will allow for breezy conditions behind the dryline as it moves east of the FA by early to mid afternoon. Very dry and breezy conditions will raise the fire weather threat Thursday from widespread near critical to extreme across our northwestern zones. This warrants the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and evening. A weak cold front should push through the region early Friday before being washed out quickly early Friday afternoon. Generally zonal upper flow is progged to set in heading into early next week with a few upper shortwave troughs possibly bringing breezy conditions and perhaps a chance or two for convection, though chances for convection are very low at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR this evening will collapse to MVFR and IFR toward midnight (lowest at LBB and PVW) before resuming VFR by late morning. SSW winds should hold steady at 10-15 knots all night with afternoon gusts over 20 knots at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected on the Caprock Wednesday, with near critical conditions focused along the Texas/New Mexico state line. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop to 9-15 percent behind a dryline with southwest 20 foot winds around 15-20 mph expected.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday, with extreme conditions being possible across the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to drop into the single digits Thursday as 20 foot winds increase to 15-25 mph out of the west behind a dryline. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all areas except the southern Rolling Plains for Thursday afternoon and evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>036-039>041.