textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Warm and sunny Saturday ahead of a wind shift to the northeast Saturday evening.

- One last day of very warm temperatures Sunday, before a modest cool down next week.

- Chances for precipitation return to areas as early Sunday evening, then again Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The broad upper trough responsible for the cold front yesterday has exited toward southeastern CONUS. Concurrently, broad upper ridging sits over SoCal. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the short term forecast as our CWA sits between the two upper systems. A warm and pleasant Friday is still on track. Current WTM surface observations indicate winds have already shifted to the south due to the development from a lee surface low over northeastern NM. This will allow temperatures to warm up to the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Tonight will be quiet with light and variable winds with lows ranging from upper 30s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 50s over southern Rolling Plains. The warming trend will continue into Saturday. Slight height and thickness increase from the upper ridging to the west as well as prevailing west to southwesterly surface flow during the afternoon will allow temperatures to warm to the 80s for much of the region. Besides well above normal temperatures, it will be a mild and mostly sunny Saturday. A surface trough will dig down late Saturday afternoon bringing a wind shift to the northeast for the rest of the day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The upper level ridge will begin to flatten and shift eastward at the start of the extended period, in response to a cutoff low moving onshore the northern California coastline. As a result, northwest flow will prevail for the start of the period before becoming more zonal, then shifting out of the southwest by early next week as the low shifts into the Four Corners. As this system approaches, we will begin to see chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures return to the forecast by early next week.

One more day of warmer temperatures will continue Sunday, before a modest cool down early next week with temperatures dropping back to near normal values for late February/early March standards. After a brief period of northwest winds, thanks to the passing surface trough to our south, winds will veer back out of the southwest early Sunday morning as a secondary lee trough develops across SE CO. As this trough works to dive southward throughout the day, the pressure gradient will begin to subtly tighten across the Panhandle. Thus allowing for wind speeds to become low-end breezy Sunday afternoon, before northerly winds return behind a backdoor front late Sunday evening. Models are a bit messy in regards to FROPA timing Sunday, with hi-resolution guidance from both the NAM and HRRR suggesting the front will enter our northern zones by early Sunday morning. Whereas global guidance suggest a slower FROPA, arriving during the late evening, which is what NBM seems to think. Given the various solutions, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to Sunday temperatures. If we see a slower FROPA we can expect the potential for record breaking heat across portions of the area, whereas if we see a faster frontal progression we could experience a much cooler day compared to what is currently forecasted. Nonetheless, the cooler post-frontal airmass combined with daily chances for PoPs will keep highs on the "cooler" side as we enter the new week.

Precipitation chances will gradually begin to increase late this weekend into early next week as subtle perturbations eject ahead of the main upper low moving from the Four Corners region into the Southern Plains, as it continues to favor a more northern track. Persistent southerly flow at the surface will work to aid in efficient gulf moisture into the Caprock regions, with a tongue of theta-e/Tds lifting into the FA as early as Sunday evening. Initial precipitation chances will rely on moisture within the mid-levels and lift being provided by the translating disturbances aloft, although precipitation looks to favor areas to our east and north. However, coverage is expected to increase by Tuesday of next week as the primary lift associated with the cutoff low translates closer to the region. Despite the increase in coverage, ensemble along with global NWP guidance remains consistent with the farther track of the parent low. With both the ECMWF and GFS placing the center of this low over the NE/KS border by mid-week as it ejects from the Desert Southwest. If we see this trend continue, dry slotting could ultimately limit PoPs across the area, especially locations across the Caprock. NBM PoPs seem to have picked up on the drier solution with this afternoon package, with likely PoPs (>55%) decreasing to chance PoPs (~40-50%) across portions of the FA. For now will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs, although these may need to be altered lower in coming forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Moderate to breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon, however are expected to become light and variable overnight. Moderate west to southwesterly winds are expected through Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift to the northeast just after the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.