textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening (30-50% chance. Locally heavy rainfall and sporadic gusty winds are possible.

- Isolated showers and storms could linger into Sunday (15-30% chance). Severe storms are not expected.

- Hot and dry conditions return next week, with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Heat Advisories may be needed for areas off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

*** SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT ***

A slow-moving upper low continues to linger over the region, which result in scattered showers and storms percolating during the morning. Convection west of I-27 finally waned in intensity and coverage as of 1115am/1615z, albeit slower than CAMs suggested. This lull in precip is expected to be relatively short-lived, as daytime heating and a moist airmass result in building instability this afternoon. CAPE values are progged to reach 1000-2000 J/kg by mid- afternoon, highest off the Caprock. CAMs suggest additional convective development by 3-4 PM (20-21z) today, with scattered storms then persisting through the evening and waning after midnight. Confidence is not particularly high regarding the location of storms, but in general the chances are higher across our southern three rows of counties (30-50% chance) compared to our northern row of counties (15-30% chance).

The top concern with the storms this evening is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential. This is owing to precipitable water (PWAT) values over 1.5", which is above the climatological 90th percentile, and slow storm motions (cloud layer winds less than 10 kts). HREF LPMM depicts localized rainfall amounts over 2-3". Given these signals, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of the CWA through tonight, with the greatest concern for flash flooding being if any storms occur over urban areas. In addition to the rainfall, sporadic gusty winds could also occur owing to evaporative cooling of water- loaded downdrafts. DCAPE values are forecast to be between 750-1000 J/kg. However, the lack of wind shear makes organized severe storms unlikely.

The upper low will gradually shift southwest on Sunday, but remain close enough to help kick off additional showers and storms within this moist airmass during the day on Sun (20-30% chance). Storm chances are highest in the SW CWA, which will be closest to the upper low.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

*** SUMMER HEAT RETURNS ***

The upper low finally shifts southwest by Sun night, and drier mid-level air shifts in from the north. Between the arrival of this dry air and height rises aloft into the week, the forecast for a hot and dry week remains on track. An upper ridge currently centered over the central Rockies will shift south and strengthen, becoming centered over TX/OK by mid-week. There is strong ensemble consensus (greater than 90% chance) that this ridge will produce a broad area where 500mb heights are above at least 594 dam.

A gradual warming trend is anticipated during the week, with highs initially in the low to mid 90s on Monday but steadily warming from there. It appears increasingly likely that Heat Advisories will be needed for areas off the Caprock, especially late in the week. The latest NBM has a 50-70% chance for temps above 105F off the Caprock each day Thursday-next Sunday. The potential of reaching advisory criteria is lower on the Caprock (10-30% chance), but it will still be hot with highs near or into the low 100s by late week. The nights also stay quite warm, with lows only forecast to fall into the mid/upper 70s off the Caprock. These forecast values are near record warm low temps. At Childress, the record warm lows during the Jul 23-25 time frame are 79 or 80F, depending on the specific date chosen.

While the official forecast only runs through Sat Jul 25, above normal temps are likely to persist through the end of July, with the Climate Prediction Center outlook showing a 60-70% chance of above normal temps during the last week of the month. Normal high temps for late July are in the mid 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered thunderstorms remain in the vicinity of each terminal. These storms have been random in development and longevity, therefore uncertainty is high if storms will impact the terminals, therefore have kept light rain and thunderstorm tempo in the TAF. Many outflow are passing across the region and can expect many more outflows as storm chances prevail through this evening. Can expect gusty, variable winds with the passage of any outflow. Thunderstorm chances dwindle shortly after sunset, however outflows from dissipating storms will prevail. Once all the storms and outflows clear the region, the rest of the night will be quiet with VFR conditions. Light to moderate southerly winds will prevail through the end of the TAF period. Slight rain chances return to KLBB and KPVW towards the end of this TAF period. However, left out of TAF as location of storms remains uncertain at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.