textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening Off the Caprock.

- Cooler and windy Wednesday, thanks to an early morning cold front.

- Unseasonably warm to end the week, with our next big cool down to start the new week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper level cutoff low, currently positioned over northern Mexico, will continue to translate eastward into the Hill Country overnight then into the Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. As this mid to upper level system approaches we will see southwest flow aloft prevail, working to transport moisture return into the region while also increase large scale ascent via the H5 70+kt jet streak. All this to say, current water vapor imagery continues to depict a pronounced dry slot overhead, with the axis of deeper moisture confined farther east near the I-35 corridor. As a result, this pattern seems to favor the setup of the dryline across the eastern Rolling Plains where it will be the driver for convective initiation this afternoon. Storms will favor the primed environment to the east of the boundary where the better moisture and large scale lift will reside. As a result, the severe threat across our area looks to be limited compared to previous forecasts. Nonetheless, thunderstorms are still expected to develop across areas off the Caprock, with hi-resolution models like the HRRR/NAM/RAP placing the dryline (which as of 12 PM CDT was still parked across eastern NM) across our most eastern column of counties by the late afternoon and early evening. Although thunderstorm development looks to be conditional along the boundary, any storms that are able to develop would have the potential to become strong to severe given the primed environment in place. Forecast soundings across the area indicate steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7 to 8 C/km while deep layer shear remains modest with bulk shear magnitudes around 50 knots. In addition to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, the instability in place will favor the potential for organized convection capable of large hail up to baseball sized hail and severe wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Despite the supportive set up for large hail and wind, the tornado threat remains low across our area given weak 0-1km shear and relatively high LCLs. Overall, chances for storms will be limited to mainly areas off the Caprock while severe storms favor the Rolling Plains. However, If the dryline sets up farther west, compared to what hi-resolution models suggests, we could see the westward expansion in PoPs and severe weather to include portions of the western South Plains. Although there is very low confidence in this happening at this point in time.

Overnight this upper system will quickly eject eastward out of the region, taking chances for precipitation with it with a mild and breezy night in store with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s. A cooler day is in store for Wednesday, thanks to a FROPA moving through the area early Wednesday morning as a shortwave passes through the Central Plains. Hi-resolution models area in agreement in regards to the timing of this front, entering our northern counties around 10Z to 12Z. Behind the front, windy northerly winds will follow in its wake. In fact, not to our surprise, NBM winds seem far too low and have opted to increase using a blend of NBM75th and CONSMOS to align closer to MOS guidance depicting winds speeds around 25 MPH to 40 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT to account for these windy conditions behind the front for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains. Additionally, a cooler air mass will work its way into the region following the FROPA with highs much cooler from the near record breaking heat today in the 60s area-wide.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quiet weather is expected to take place towards the end of the week into the weekend as northwest to near zonal flow aloft sets up as a series of waves translate through the Great Lakes while upper ridging works to set up across the Plains. Meanwhile near the surface, lee cyclogenesis will develop each afternoon allowing southwest to westerly surface flow to prevail aiding in WAA into the region. Thus, we expect the warm up of temperatures Friday into Saturday with Saturday looking to be the warmest day of the week with highs widespread in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Thankfully, these super warm temperatures will be short-lived with ensembles hinting at our next cool down Sunday as a shortwave glides through the Upper Midwest and sends a FROPA southward bringing temperatures back to near normal to start the next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

In addition to breezy conditions, storms should remain further east than all three terminals late this afternoon. The wind should be slow to subside overnight, and will pick back up before sunrise with a cold front passing through.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ021>044.