textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Cool and cloudy with a risk of light precipitation on Monday. Perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the southern Rolling Plains

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Dreary low clouds were expanding their footprint across the entire forecast area early this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough in western New Mexico. Broad southerlies in the low levels will continue advecting modified gulf moisture into the region through tonight until this wave passes Tuesday morning; however, the greatest ascent through this afternoon will shift off the Caprock with isentropic upglide maximizing along the 300K and 305K surfaces. Farther west, just some light drizzle and spotty showers are expected through tonight as stratus thickens and lowers to several hundred feet off the deck. With such moist low levels, potential for patchy fog overnight is increasing particularly for areas that received rainfall. Low temps will be even milder than this morning with 50s commonplace under a blanket of stratus. These clouds will be stubborn to clear out until low- level winds veer southwest Tuesday morning. Areas off the Caprock should not see sunshine until later in the afternoon which will garner a hefty maxT gradient of low 70s well east to the mid 80s along the TX and NM border.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In the wake of Tuesday's shortwave trough, winds aloft trend even lighter as a progressive ridge axis moves across our area by Tuesday night. This lull in upper winds flips over for Wednesday and especially Thursday as cyclonic SW flow deepens over the SW CONUS in response to an upper low tracking from the Great Basin to the Dakotas. As a result, lee troughing will amplify our southwest breezes each day with Thursday likely the breeziest under 40-45 knots of H5 flow. Interestingly, a waffling dryline should linger in our area Wednesday before mixing east and beyond the 100th meridian for Thursday ahead of much breezier downslope winds. PoPs are being kept silent for Wednesday as the EML appears too hostile for deep convection. Friday sees fast semi-zonal flow develop for much of the Lower 48 ahead of a shortwave trough speeding toward our domain by late in the weekend. A shallow backdoor front either late Saturday or early Sunday should disrupt our unseasonably mild highs in the 80s and 90s, but anything more than this temp drop looks unlikely at the moment.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Barring some VFR pockets from spotty -SHRA, MVFR and eventually IFR CIGs will plague LBB and PVW through early Tuesday morning before skies clear toward noon. The northern MVFR extent should overspread CDS at some point this evening. Prospects for fog overnight look greatest S-SE of LBB where rainfall has been steadiest.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.