textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Some showers and storms overnight through Monday morning.

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday evening on the Caprock.

- Hotter and drier beginning Tuesday, with Heat Advisory conditions possible by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Cool and moist northeasterlies prevailed late this evening behind a cold front sandwiched between I20 and I10. A temporary break from earlier low clouds looks to come to an end after midnight as a layer of stratus in eastern NM advects our way with a mid-level shortwave trough. Some showers and a few storms accompanying this wave stand a chance of surviving their journey to the Texas South Plains through daybreak, or perhaps redeveloping here as the wave encounters deeper moisture. Weak subsidence following this wave should secure some sunshine by the afternoon with highs near 80. A surface ridge will depart into the Rolling Plains by this time allowing a modest instability axis to focus near the TX and NM border. Models are in decent agreement that upslope storms in northeast NM will survive their trek southeast through the evening as they benefit from improved southerly sfc-850 moisture advection that sustains MLCAPEs of several hundred J/kg on the Caprock. Given models often struggle in these parts with weakly-forced convection in NW flow (this last occurred on June 6th), PoPs were raised Monday evening on the Caprock. A few severe storms are not out of the question before this activity either decays or exits the South Plains overnight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Drier and hotter weather builds in for Tuesday as 850-700 mb winds obtain a more westerly component and advect a dome of desert air our way, especially by Wednesday when high temperatures of 105-109 are likely for areas off the Caprock. Fortunately, a cold front remains in the offing by Thursday, but this may struggle to produce meaningful rain chances given heights continue to build ahead of a closed high progged to set up over our region by Friday. Low chances for showers/storms looks good at this time off the Caprock on Thursday with chances expanding elsewhere for Friday as moisture becomes trapped under the high. Highs return to their usual toasty readings next weekend as this moisture departs and the upper ridge lingers.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MVFR CIGS are beginning to creep into KPVW early this morning, where they are also expected to impact KLBB around 08Z, and potentially a little earlier. There remains lesser confidence in MVFR CIGS at KCDS, which would impact the terminal around daybreak. Additionally, some models are hinting at a few pop up showers developing around daybreak, which would impact all terminals. However confidence remains too low for a TAF mention.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.