textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Much cooler Friday with cloudy skies and scattered showers.

- Gradually warming, but generally cooler and drier conditions this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

In the immediate term, strong winds over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains along the Texas/New Mexico state line will continue to decrease over the next several hours. Surface pressure rises behind a cold front will continue to ease during this time. Much cooler temperatures will also be ushered in behind this front through the early morning hours on Friday. Additionally, low stratus will maintain its southern advection into the South Plains. Northerly winds and overcast skies through the day will ultimately lead to temperatures well below seasonal averages on the order of 15 to 20 degrees below average. Some areas on the caprock may struggle to break 60 degrees on Friday afternoon. The other forecast issue for the day will be chances of precipitation. The upper level low that brought us rainfall this week will attempt to shear out on Friday resulting in a shear axis overhead and try to close off a low over Far West Texas. Weak large scale ascent will persist overhead through the day. Furthermore, moist isentropic ascent between 800 and 700mb will foster light rain shower development. Cooler temperatures and increasing low level dew points will bring a nearly saturated atmosphere from the surface up to around 650mb as well. No thunder is expected on Friday with the lack of any instability throughout the atmospheric column. Forecast rainfall amounts will be very light with only several hundreths of an inch expected from this activity.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The upper level shear axis will dip farther to the south on Saturday pushing precipitation chances farther south. Weak large scale ascent will continue to be present mostly over the Rolling Plains. In addition, weak instability may develop early in the morning on Saturday bringing at least a slight chance of thunder to the Rolling Plains. Cooler air will receive a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Sunday with a return to surface lee troughing on Monday. A period of dry weather and increasing temperatures is expected beginning in the second half of the weekend through at least the middle of next week. Upper level ridging will build over the four corners this weekend into early next week but will become suppressed by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

CIGs will lower to MVFR after sunset, with IFR CIGs expected at both KLBB and KPVW (and potentially KCDS as well) beginning after 06z. Currently, it appears likely that IFR CIGs will remain in place through much of the day on Friday. North winds will continue to increase through the rest of this evening, with gusts near 30 kt expected overnight through Friday morning. Some -SHRA or -DZ will be possible at essentially any point after 06z, but will not include mention in the TAF for the time being given uncertainty in timing and areal coverage.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.