textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Rain chances appear favorable each day this upcoming work week

- Locally heavy rain with slow storm motion potential on Monday

- Cooler and cloudy than we've seen in quite a while by mid-week

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

West to NW flow is in place for Monday morning as a storm system tracks across the northern plains with another just offshore the California coast. The latter low will move into Nevada by Tuesday morning with a notable southwesterly flow event across the desert southwest whilst we will be poised under a ridge of high pressure extending from south TX up along the eastern slope of the Rockies.

Good agreement exists between global and CAM guidance regarding storm potential on Monday. It would look as if areas near the I27 corridor stand the best opportunity for storms though given performance as of late, just about any location in our CWFA has a chance. Admittedly, areas in our NE might have the best chance at missing out. Forecast soundings do show some significant challenges with a pronounced subsidence inversion above H7 at KLBB whilst KPVW hints at a deep moist profile. With cloud bases near H8, some downburst potential is warranted. Shear profiles show about 30 KT of bulk shear combining with 1000-1500 J/kg of energy. Storm motions may be exceedingly slow Monday afternoon, perhaps only about 5KT at times. As such, locally heavy rainfall with a conditional flooding potential will be possible. The warmest areas will likely be across the southern South Plains and in the eastern Rolling Plains seeing highs in the 90s and 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The NV low will fill rapidly as it moves into the northern Rockies though a trough will remain in place from near LAS southwestward across SAN thence into the Pacific. High pressure initially remains a bit further west than previously forecast though a shift eastward on Wednesday should allow better mid-level southwesterly flow to overspread the region especially along the TX/NM state line. This general setup will remain in place through late this week though a bit of a shift to more westerly directionality looks to occur by Friday night. High pressure will build into Texas more squarely over the weekend as a Pacific NW storm, initially making landfall on Thursday, translates into the Canadian Prairies.

Monday evening, we'll potentially be dealing with a weak back door front. This is most prolifically noted in the NAM but hints (albeit much weaker) do appear in the GFS/ECM guidance as well. This could help to keep storm chances going well into the evening and possibly shifting south into the Permian Basin though that remains quite uncertain given the overarching variance in evolutionary solutions. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to have rain opportunities though guidance generally favors ERN NM. Still our western counties look to have the best precipitation chances Wed, Thu, and Fri. At this point, Saturday looks much drier. Storm activity this week has the tendency to be predominantly late afternoon through the overnight hours thence waning by mid morning. Plenty of uncertainty exists with this batch of monsoon moisture, but as mentioned above, the west looks wetter than our east. Periods of heavy rain will be possible. Cooler and cloudy conditions will accompany the thunderstorm chances yielding more cloud cover than we've seen in a while.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A few TS will linger overnight, but convective impacts to the terminals appear unlikely through Monday morning. Otherwise, expect MVFR CIGs to develop at KCDS just after sunrise, potentially spreading as far south as KPVW before dissipating by midday. Another round of TSRA is possible after 18z just about anywhere across the region, but will withhold TAF mention at this time given fairly high uncertainty.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.