textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- A quick warm-up in store starting Sunday, with well-above average temperatures expected through Tuesday.

- The warm temperatures and continuing dry conditions will lead to an elevated fire danger Sunday and areas of near-critical to critical conditions Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday evening and then again from Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly for the Rolling Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Lee-troughing has been established across the southern High Plains late Saturday evening with southerly winds gradually advecting some modest moisture back into West Texas, although deeper moisture remains locked up along the Gulf Coast for now. The lee trough will remain fairly stationary on Sunday as a weak upper- level disturbance glides over the region within a belt of W-SW flow aloft. Low-level moisture will remain too shallow and weak dryline convergence will prevent any moist convection despite temperatures rising well into the 80s for most...and even some 90s expected in Caprock Canyons and its environs. Owing to the heat and increasing southerly winds, an elevated fire danger will develop across mainly northern portions of the forecast area Sunday and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect. A strengthening low-level jet Sunday night will continue the gradual moisture advection and temperatures will be very mild.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Upper-level flow turns more broadly southwesterly on Monday, with West Texas roughly positioned in-between a large ridge over the northern Gulf and a large trough off the Pacific Coast. A weak shortwave migrating through the Southern Plains should drag the surface trough eastward, and in conjunction with deep heating should result in a SW-NE dryline across the Caprock Monday afternoon. Warm temps aloft will once again squash any attempts at moist convection, but we should add several degrees of warmth. This, in conjunction with the southerly breezes may result in near-critical fire weather conditions developing west of the dryline, where the airmass will be exceedingly dry. Winds are not forecast to be exceptionally strong however. Another breezy and very mild night is expected.

Tuesday is looking interesting for the potential variety of weather elements. It appears that a series of minor shortwaves will continue to pass overhead, while a sharp cold front will be racing southward through the High Plains. With our current estimate of timing of the features, it looks like a pre-frontal trough will develop across the Texas South Plains during the day. This could help to sharpen the dryline near the Caprock Escarpment by peak heating (which should be intense) Tuesday afternoon. Hot and dry conditions will favor a high fire danger on the Caprock, although, once again, the winds may not be very strong. There does seem to be some potential for the cap to break late Tuesday afternoon east of the dryline, and this potential will be greater if the cold front timing is favorable, perhaps setting up a triple-point in the area. But will note that this is a lot of ifs and at this point the timing of the front itself is very uncertain - in fact, some model solutions don't really bring the front though until a stronger shortwave passes by late Wednesday/Thursday. If we still are retaining any moisture when the lift with the shortwave arrives, we may see a chance of showers during this period as well, or it could be shunted all off to our east. The good news is that we should see cooler temperatures Wed and Thu. It looks warmer Friday but the next, larger, storm system moving into the Rockies may usher in much cooler temperatures and perhaps a chance of rain for Easter weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. LLWS is expected to impact KCDS in the next couple of hours and persist until around sunrise. Breezy southerly winds will continue overnight through Sunday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.