textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Slight chance for strong to marginally severe storms across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday, with severe storms capable of large hail and strong winds Saturday afternoon, shifting to a heavy rainfall threat overnight Saturday.

- Drying out early next week, before another chance for rainfall next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The cold front has started moving into the northern Texas Panhandle as of noon and is not expected to push much further south. The front should remain nearly stationary across the northern Panhandle and will be the focus for convective development later this afternoon and evening. Light showers have been ongoing across the front for much of the morning, and light showers are beginning to develop along a surface trough that extends from the front southward through central New Mexico. Activity will increase with surface heating this afternoon and will persist through much of the night. This activity should mostly stay west of the FA as steering flow is mostly out of the southwest. Some eastward progression along outflow towards the FA will be possible and some storms may enter our western zones by this evening. Any storms that do move into the FA should act similar to Thursday's convection and dissipate by early morning. The threat for severe storms is low, but a storm or two could be strong to low end severe with wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter size hail being possible.

Models are coming more in line with the convective potential for Saturday. While models, for the most part, have backed off in regards to convection across the FA before 20Z, they continue to show overcast conditions much of the day leading up to the afternoon's convection as a weak LLJ remains. This will limit the potential for severe convection potential before mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will still be possible, but likely not to the extent of what global models have been portraying. This will also limit overall CAPE for afternoon and evening convection with models currently limiting MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. The lack of CAPE will be made up with lapse rates of 7-8 during the afternoon and evening just as storms begin to develop near the Texas/New Mexico state line and H500 heights begin to fall. Shear will also be limited, with 0-6km bulk shear topping out around 25-35 knots. Storms are expected to congeal into a line by mid to late Saturday evening as they continue pushing eastward across the FA. Storms are expected to exit east of the FA by early to mid Sunday morning. The primary severe hazards will start with wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size with flooding becoming more prevalent, mainly across the Rolling Plains, Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as the LLJ strengthens.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Storms will likely be east of the FA by or just after sunrise Sunday. Upper flow will be out of the southwest Sunday through at least mid next week. A surface low across Colorado/Nebraska could provide us with a breezy Tuesday as an upper trough across the West Coast amplifies and begins pushing eastward. While models indicate a chance for convection mainly across our eastern zones Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, these chances will likely decrease as time progresses. The upper trough will be fairly progressive with a neutral to positive tilt as it approaches the region, not the most favorable for precip across the FA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the evening with MVFR to IFR CIGS filling in at KLBB and KPVW after midnight. While KCDS will be on the northern extent of cloud coverage, MVFR CIGS can still be expected by early morning. Low CIGS will linger through at least mid-morning before slowly clearing through the afternoon. There remains a slight chance for -RA at both PVW/LBB early this morning with a chance for -TSRA at CDS after midnight. Heavy rainfall and a few erratic wind gusts will serve as the primary threats.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.