textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least mid-week, but trend slightly cooler each day.

- Daily thunderstorm chances exist from Sunday through Saturday favoring areas on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

In the immediate term, a strong low level jet has formed overhead with 850mb winds on the order of 35-40kt. Weak ascent generated by this low level jet may garner some light rain shower activity during the early morning hours on Sunday. However, much of the isentropic fields display downglide so it remains unclear on where any precipitation would develop. Additionally, a cold front enhanced outflow boundary will intrude on the extreme southern Texas Panhandle into the northern South Plains and northern Rolling Plains early in the morning on Sunday. This may also provide a focus for isolated convection. During the day on Sunday, an upper level ridge will remain firmly entrenched overhead but a downtick in thickness values will result in temperatures a few degrees off Saturday's record values. With the upper ridge still not budging much on Sunday, mid-level moisture will begin to be shunted to the north under the increasingly southeasterly mid-level flow. There may be a brief period where convection will be allowed to develop across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and along the Texas/New Mexico state line on Sunday afternoon before this mid- level moisture skirts north. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler, deep boundary layer mixing will persist leading to a high based cumulus field. Increasing coverage of convection can be expected farther into eastern New Mexico closer to the presence of a surface pressure trough. Similar to what we observed on Saturday afternoon, instability values will only be on the order of a few hundred J/kg. Any storms that develop will primarily have the potential of developing strong surface wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The theme for next week will be daily chances of convective chances beneath a mid-level moisture plume favoring areas on the caprock. The upper level ridge will further move eastward to the southeastern CONUS. This will allow the monsoon moisture plume to shift more overhead starting as early as Monday but increasing in coverage aloft for the rest of the week. With the ridge moving farther away from the region and an increase in moisture will result in a lowering trend on temperatures through the week. The cooler surface temperatures will bring minimal chances of severe convection with smaller inverted-V soundings and lower cloud bases. Tuesday and afternoon and evening may see increased precipitation chances with a cold front making a run at the region but likely stopping shy of the area in the Texas Panhandle. A second cold front will make a run at the area on Thursday with better chances of reaching into the South Plains. It is this second cold front which may finally bring temperatures back down towards seasonal averages next weekend with models showing easterly upslope flow during this time period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

-TSRA continues at KCDS early this morning, where we expect to see a decrease in this activity towards sunrise. Thereafter a mostly quiet day is expected with VFR conditions prevailing. Expect a few southerly breezes around 10-15G25KTs at all terminals this afternoon. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.