textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A cold front early this morning will bring breezy winds and much cooler temperatures for Monday.

- Temperatures will remain near normal through the rest of this week before a sharp cooldown heading into the weekend.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of wintry precipitation during the upcoming weekend, but confidence in any specifics is extremely low at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Monday and Monday night) Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

We are on cold front watch at the moment. Current surface observations indicate the cold front is oriented NW to SE the Central Plains about to reach the Texas Panhandle. Current models have the front reaching the far southeastern Texas Panhandle right around sunrise. Until then, light easterly surface winds will prevail through early morning as a lee surface low tracks southward through New Mexico. Will be a chilly morning as light surface flow and mostly clear skies will cool temperatures to the 20s. Mid-level clouds will fill in over much of the CWA early this morning and are expected to prevail through the rest of today. Following the FROPA, breezy northeasterly winds are expected across the region as the front pushes southwest through the CWA. Will be much cooler today compared to Sunday as highs will only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s as northeasterly surface flow ushers in cooler arctic and mostly cloudy skies inhibit daytime heating. As the cold front exits the region this evening, winds are expected to weaken and remain light overnight and the mid-level clouds will dissipate as the post- frontal surface high fills in across the region. This set up will bring much colder temperatures tonight with lows in the teens for much of the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A familiar upper air pattern will continue through about midweek as longwave upper level troughing persists over most of the CONUS. The continuation of this setup will allow the repetitive series of cold frontal passages to continue over West TX, but at this point it appears these midweek fronts will be relatively weak with an initial lack of notably cold air upstream. As a result, temperatures are likely to remain near normal through about Thursday with dry weather continuing through then as well.

Friday into the weekend, current ensemble consensus points to a fairly significant pattern change which will bring much colder temperatures to the region. This will occur as the sub-500dam H5 low over Ontario finally begins to lift northeastward, an evolution which will send a strong Arctic cold front southward through the southern Great Plains region as a nearly 1050mb surface ridge builds over the Upper Midwest. Also during this timeframe, flow aloft over West TX is progged to turn southwesterly ahead of an upper trough located off the SoCal/Baja coast. This synoptic setup combined with the presence of a strong Arctic cold front suggests there is at least some potential for wintry precipitation across the region late Friday into this weekend. However, deterministic and ensemble solutions have shown huge volatility over the past few runs which results in extremely high uncertainty in how the pattern will actually evolve, and any specifics regarding the timing and any amounts of frozen precipitation simply cannot be resolved at this lead time. Stay tuned for more details over the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR overcast and brisk, east-northeasterly winds are expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through this evening. Winds will diminish by sunset, and will become light and variable overnight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.