textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Outside of a brief cooldown Sunday, warm and dry conditions continue through next week, with possible record highs Saturday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain expected today and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Zonal flow aloft will develop through today in the wake of a trough. Southwesterly surface winds will increase by the afternoon hours as relatively low pressure deepens in the Rockies. Although the current cirrus may somewhat inhibit these winds, overall conditions remain favorable for fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through early evening for portions of the far SE Panhandle and northern South Plains where winds will be highest (sustained around 20-25 mph with higher gusts). A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect elsewhere. Significantly above average high temperatures will return into the low-to-mid 70s. Winds will slightly diminish this evening, however remain elevated around 10-15 mph into the overnight hours. This will help keep lows on the mild side, generally ranging in the mid 40s to near 50. Surface winds will shift due westerly Saturday, with the downsloping component bringing even slightly warmer temperatures. Although models have dropped a bit from earlier runs, record highs remain possible and should still climb into the 80s for the southern South Plains and off the Caprock. This will likewise bring more widespread fire weather concerns across the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A brief reprieve from the December heat will occur late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure develops over the central Great Plains with relatively low pressure to the south. Winds will switch to NE overnight, however veer more towards the south during the day as the high pressure departs eastward. Cooler highs in the mid 50s are expected over the far SW Panhandle where light easterly winds will hold on a bit longer, with low-to-mid 60s to the south and west where southerly winds will arrive a bit sooner. Winds will switch back to SW for the remainder of next week. Zonal flow aloft will persist through Monday with heights around 580 Dm. A ridge builds in by Christmas and will continue to have an influence over our area through the end of the week. Significantly above average highs will persist in the 70s and 80s. Long-range models indicate the potential for an upper trough closer to the New Year, however winter does not appear to be arriving anytime soon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Breezy winds out of the southwest will remain in place during the overnight hours at KLBB and KPVW with a slight turning of the winds more to the west. After sunrise on Saturday, winds will increase again out of the west. A cold front will move through the area, first at KCDS during the afternoon, then at KLBB and KPVW after 00Z. Winds will shift to the northeast behind this front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Sustained southwest surface winds near 20 mph along with humidities in the teens and a return of highs in the 70s will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6 PM for the far SE Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect elsewhere. More widespread critical fire weather concerns are expected Saturday in a due westerly downsloping flow pattern. RFTIs will increase to 2-3, particularly across the South Plains.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>029.