textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- More freezing fog expected for the far southwest TX Panhandle through early Sunday morning.

- Dry and mild weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A narrow, but pesky strip of stratus was parked from CVS-HRX-AMA late this evening and should remain largely unchanged overnight as moist W-SW winds persist in the lowest few thousand feet. This saturated layer poses the risk for another, albeit more focused, round of freezing fog overnight for our far NW counties. Latest obs of light fog at Clovis and Friona support the HRRR which continues to blossom lower visbys through the early A.M. in the far SW TX Panhandle. Confidence in widespread dense freezing fog is too low for headlines at the moment, but later shifts will monitor. This fog should make a quick exodus by 9-10 AM once low-level mixing enters the picture.

Otherwise, upper ridging inches across the Continental Divide on Sunday providing us with ample height gains in NW flow. 1000-500 mb thicknesses jump 120 meters in 24 hours all the while chilly surface ridging peels farther away. This along with light W-SW winds will make for a pleasantly mild day marked by full sun and highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A decaying shortwave perturbation is forecast to emerge over W TX Monday, and will be accompanied by a broad shield of high-level cirrostratus. Weak cyclogenesis will occur near the Raton Mesa in response to the subtle geopotential height falls, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph by peak heating. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms, but remain far below any record values. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough progresses southeastward into the Great Plains along the eastern periphery of a developing Rex Block over the Pacific Coast. The first of two polar cold fronts will arrive shortly before midnight CST Tuesday and clear south of the CWA before sunrise, with brisk, northerly winds developing in its wake. Winds were raised through the morning hours Tuesday to account for the spike in pressure tendencies post-FROPA, with winds forecast to diminish by Tuesday afternoon. The second cold front will arrive Wednesday, as the base of the amplifying trough digs into the southern Great Plains, although winds should be a bit weaker compared to the front the day before. Another warm-up will follow through the end of the week as the Rex Block to the west of the CWA continues to strengthen, with PoPs remaining NIL.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A batch of LIFR CIGS and visbys was slowly moving across the area this morning already affecting KPVW. These restrictions may make it into the KLBB terminal within the next hour or two and persist for several more hours before dissipating late this morning. VFR conditions are then expected afterwards.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.