textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- "Cool" and humid conditions will continue through Friday. - Daily shower/storm chances will peak Thursday and Friday, before diminishing by late weekend. - Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the primary hazards with precipitation.

- Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A round of low stratus affected roughly the southern half of the CWA this morning, though it was now lifting and scattering as of midday. Though these low clouds mark a further increase in moisture spreading into the region, the closest showers have stayed down toward the Concho Valley this morning, with the widespread heavy/flooding rain much farther south into the Hill Country. The influx of moisture, along with daytime heating, will fuel another afternoon and evening of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily across the southern South and Rolling Plains. Similar to recent days, brief heavy rain and gusty and erratic winds will accompany any stronger cells. Otherwise, the relatively "cool" but muggy conditions will continue this afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally driven convection will fade this evening, but the mid- level weakness/low downstate is forecast to wobble north while commencing a slow westward drift. This will open the door for even richer tropospheric moisture to be advected northward into the CWA. As this happens, rain chances will increase and expand northward into the Rolling Plains late tonight (after midnight). The rain/storm chances will slowly spread northwestward over much of the CWA through the day on Thursday, in concert with the westward drifting mid-level low. PWATs increasing to 1.50-1.75+ inches, combined with weak steering flow, will support locally heavy rain and localized flooding on Thursday. Locations off the Caprock, in the Rolling Plains, will be most favored for heavy rain Thursday morning, with the risk for heavy rain potentially expanding westward onto the Caprock during the afternoon. At this point, NWP doesn't indicate widespread excessive rainfall, but a swath or two of 1-2+ inches of rain are possible, primarily in the Rolling Plains Thursday. Given this, we plan to hold off on any flood-related highlights at the moment.

The increased cloud cover and areas of rain will further temper temperatures, with highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s Thursday. This will follow a pleasantly cool night with lows primarily in the 60s tonight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The mid-level low will continue to drift slowly westward on Friday as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. A nearly saturated troposphere will remain in place across West Texas, which could support additional pockets of heavy rain just about anywhere in the CWA. That said, the bulk of the medium range guidance are less bullish on both rain coverage and amounts Friday. We'll see, but the where showers/storms do form/track they will definitely be efficient rainers. The moist atmosphere (clouds and areas of rain) will keep highs around 10 degrees below average. Thereafter, the building upper ridge/high centered over the central Rockies will cause the nearby weakness and its deep moisture to shift farther westward, with moisture locally thinning with time. Even so, residual low-level moisture, in combination with warming temperatures, could prove enough to trigger spotty convection on Saturday, favoring the western zones closest to the departing weakness and best moisture. Even warmer/hotter and drier weather will follow late weekend into early next week as the moisture continues to abate thanks to the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Temperatures will rebound close to average Sunday, then move to the warm (hot) side of average next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The low cloud deck that filled in across all three terminals this morning is finally clearing out. Currently, VFR conditions at KPVW and KCDS. MVFR ceilings linger at KLBB, however are expected to clear in the next hour or two. VFR conditions are expected the rest of today. Southeasterly winds will prevail through this evening and overnight. Slightly breezy winds will continue through the afternoon before weakening this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to return early Thursday morning at all three terminals. Ceilings could reach IFR, especially at KPVW and KLBB, however confidence right now is low. But can expect patches of IFR ceilings early Thursday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.