textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Much warmer, drier, and breezier Saturday with brief chances of thunderstorms in the eastern Rolling Plains in the late afternoon.

- Hot Sunday and Monday with scattered thunderstorm chances.

- Cooler and wetter pattern develops Tuesday through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Large scale ascent was still moving overhead evident by the light rain showers still present with the occasional thunder strike. This forcing will continue to move eastward this afternoon with subsidence moving overhead in the wake. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon with a strong short wave trough rotating around the central Rockies and central Plains. The dryline will mix to roughly the Texas Highway 70 corridor. Convergence on this feature will not be insignificant like we have seen the previous few days. The larger scale ascent from the upper jet will be racing off northeastward late this afternoon presenting a brief window for convective initiation in the eastern Rolling Plains. Similar to what we saw yesterday, boundary layer mixing will struggle to occur east of the dryline due to the mid and high level cloud cover. However, we should still see instability climb to 1500-2000 J/kg east of the dryline. The unstable atmosphere combined with moderate shear around 30kt would support a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The lack of boundary layer mixing may keep the atmosphere capped from any convective development. Furthermore, any storms would be transitory in the FA with a quick northeastward movement into North Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.

For Sunday, significant mid level height rises of 30-40m are progged and despite this, CAM guidance continues to depict convective initiation across the southern Rolling Plains. A dryline will again sharpen up and mix eastward off the caprock but with much less convergence on this feature than progged for today. Otherwise, a very unstable atmosphere will be in place with mixed layer instability higher with values on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Inhibition will weaken in the afternoon but may be enough to prevent convective development as well. Therefore, we will reluctantly retain low end NBM PoPs for Sunday afternoon across the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Precipitation chances will begin to increase starting Monday lasting through much of the week for each afternoon. Mid level flow will remain backed out of the southwest on Monday but a ridge will be building over the state of Texas. This will keep most available mid and upper level moisture confined to the western South Plains and portions of the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Broad southeasterly low level flow will attempt to keep moisture in the area but warm temperatures will likely allow for strong boundary layer mixing. This ridge is then expected to shift eastward for the rest of the week keeping southwest flow aloft in place but with less influence from the ridge. Low level moisture will improve through the week leading to cooler temperatures especially in the second half of the week. The broad southeasterly low level flow will not favor any one particular area for convection but a few embedded short wave troughs aloft may bring better chances for some afternoons.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Moderate west to southwesterly winds are expected to continue the rest of today through Sunday afternoon. LLWS is expected at KCDS beginning around midnight through early Sunday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.