textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Hot and dry conditions are expected Friday through the holiday weekend.

- High temperatures in the mid 90s to lower triple digits are expected Independence Day.

- Although confidence is low, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out Saturday evening across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Nice and quiet, but hot Friday is still in store for us. Current water vapor imagery shows the upper ridging that has dominated the southeastern CONUS for much of the week has expanded across much of southern CONUS. On the surface, southwesterly winds will prevail through this afternoon as a lee surface trough sits over eastern CO. Through the afternoon, the surface trough will gradually expand south across NM, shifting surface flow to the southeast. Slight thickness increases due to the upper ridging as well as WAA from southerly surface flow, the warming trend that began a couple of days ago is expected to continue. Highs later this afternoon will reach the 90s across much of the region with some areas across the southern Rolling Plains seeing highs in the triple digits. Today will be the first day in a while where we don't have late afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances. Despite the southeasterly upslope flow later this afternoon, subsidence from the upper ridging will keep PoPs near zero. A pleasant and mild overnight period is expected. Southeasterly winds will shift back to the southwest as the surface trough tracks east across the OK Panhandle and southern KS. Lows will be in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains.

The 4th of July is looking to be a nice, but hot day. On the upper levels, the aforementioned ridging will continue to prevail over much of the southern CONUS. Southwesterly surface flow will prevail through the morning and early afternoon hours. However, another lee surface trough will develop across southern CO and northern NM, gradually shifting winds to the Southeast through the afternoon. Thicknesses continue to slightly increase under the ridging and in combination with WAA from southerly surface flow, temperatures will warm up a few more degrees compared to Friday. Highs are expected to reach upper 90s on the Caprock and just below Heat Advisory triple digits off the Caprock. Thunderstorm chances return Saturday evening for a small portion of the forecast area. Compared to previous forecasts, CAMs are now indicating greater thunderstorm coverage across northwestern zones of the CWA.

We will see forcing on all levels as upper forcing will be provided by an embedded shortwave passing across portions of eastern NM and the Texas Panhandle and the southeasterly upslope surface flow will provide low-level forcing. CAMs indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM and expanding into our region through the evening. The greatest chances for thunderstorms will be across the far southwestern to south-central Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains. With inverted-v soundings, elevated thunderstorms are expected. With elevated thunderstorms as well as soundings indicating DCAPE values up to 1800 J/kg, can expect strong wind gusts from downbursts and/or outflows in the vicinity of these storms. Very similar to the thunderstorms this past week, these thunderstorms will be short- lived as weak shear values (15-20 kts) will hinder updraft development. Good instability with soundings indicating MUCAPE values up to 2500 J/kg make severe thunderstorms possible. However, potential for severe hail is low. Although, if these thunderstorms are able to overcome the weak shear, hail up to quarter size will be possible.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Sunday will continue the multi-day afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances and hot temperatures. Upper ridging is expected to continue to dominate portions of southern CONUS through next week. An embedded shortwave will bring thunderstorm chances to the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Can expect similar temperatures on Sunday as the 4th with highs in the 90s across the Caprock and just below Heat Advisory triple digits off the Caprock. However, a slight "cool" down is expected across the far southwestern to south- central Texas Panhandle where thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. These storms will keep highs in the lower 90s. The upper level pattern the following few days seems to become a little more complicated. The upper ridging will remain stagnant across the Desert Southwest while a positively tilted upper trough amplifies across central CONUS. The slight cool down continues through Monday and Tuesday due to height and thickness decreases from the upper trough, however highs remain in the 90s to lower 100s. Multiple passing upper shortwaves between the two upper disturbances will continue thunderstorm chances through mid-week. A warm up is expected through the latter half of the week as the aforementioned upper trough gets pulled into northerly flow, allowing the upper ridging to dominate across the Texas Panhandle once again. Models indicate a secondary, low amplitude trough will pass across the Rockies and Central Plains through the latter half of the week. This will continue thunderstorm chances at least through Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions with modest southerly breezes are in store at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The low-level jet will increase to 25-35 kts out of the S-SW tonight leading to some chop on take-offs and landings.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.