textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Pleasant and dry conditions through Thursday.

- Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return this weekend through early next week.

- Cold front possible early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Radar has shown showers across the eastern NM the past couple of hours, however have mostly cleared. Although, these showers never impacted our forecast area because they were quick to die as they approached the state line. After a pleasant and sunny Tuesday, we can expect a quiet and slightly warmer overnight period compared to last night. Lows will cool to the mid to upper 50s with light southerly winds. The gradual warming trend will continue into Wednesday with current upper level water vapor imagery showing upper ridging sitting over the region. At the same time, an upper low is parked over eastern Pacific, just off the coast of California. Slight height and thickness increases below the ridging and sunny skies will warm temperatures a few degrees on Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees. Light winds will start out from the southwest in the morning before gradually shifting to the south through the afternoon. Tuesday night will be very similar to tonight with lows in the mid to upper 50s with light southerly winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a nice and pleasant Thursday. Upper ridging will prevail overhead much of the day Thursday, however the upper low off the coast of California will move onshore effectively pushing the upper ridging to the east. This upper pattern change will bring precipitation chances and cooler temperatures starting Friday and continue over the weekend. As the upper low shifts onshore, flow aloft will shift to the southwest pumping in plenty of subtropical moisture. Precipitation chances will start off across western portions of the Caprock Friday before expanding east across the rest of the region Saturday and Sunday. The greatest threat expected with these storms is heavy rain that could lead to flooding with PWATS up to 1.25 inches. Daily showers and thunderstorms will cool temperatures off with highs reaching lower 60s by Sunday. Models indicate a cold front will push through region Monday prolonging precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. Current model runs differ with the frontal timing, although not by much. GFS has a faster track with the front pushing through Monday morning. ECMWF has a slower track with the front pushing through Monday afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. A small chance of low CIGS and visbys is possible around sunrise this morning at KLBB and KPVW. However, chances are too low to mention in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.