textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least mid-week, but trend slightly cooler each day.

- Isolated storms are possible this evening, primarily west of I-27. Any storms that do form will be capable of strong wind gusts.

- Daily thunderstorm chances exist next week, favoring areas on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper ridging persists over the south-central US, with 500mb heights around 592 dam. A cold front extends well southwest from a sfc low over the Hudson Bay, with that front arcing across the Midwest down towards the TX Panhandle. As of 18z/1pm, WTM obs placed the front between Dalhart and Amarillo, with SSW winds and current sfc temps in the mid 90s or higher south of the front, and NE winds and temps in the 80s north of the front. Unfortunately, this front is not expected to sag all the way south into our FA today.

A weak dryline is noted across western portions of the Caprock, extending south from a subtle sfc low over the TX Panhandle. This feature could provide the necessary forcing to kick off a few storms this afternoon and evening, which has been a consistent signal across a few cycles worth of CAM runs. Forecast soundings once again show deep, well-mixed boundary layer (downdraft CAPE values around 1500 J/kg), so any storms that do form will be capable of sporadic strong gusts. This activity is primarily expected to develop and stay west of I-27, although some eastward expansion can't be ruled out as cold pools expand. The far southern TX Panhandle also has some low precip chances this evening as storms develop along the cold front across the TX Panhandle, potentially sending convective outflows that track southward and kick off more storms. However, most of the activity along the cold front is expected to stay north of our FA. Overnight, a LLJ (40 kt winds at 850 mb) advecting moisture northward could keep some sporadic shower activity in place overnight, although coverage is still just below mentionable levels (less than 15%).

Hot temps remain on track today, and as of 18z/1pm WTM obs were already sampling temps as high as 104 degrees off the Caprock. As the upper high gradually shifts towards the southeast US into early next week, a very gradual cooling trend can be expected, with highs a degree or two cooler on Sunday. While some precip can't be ruled out near the TX/NM border tomorrow, better chances will be focused to the west across NM.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Into Mon-Tues, the upper ridge is expected to be positioned over the SE CONUS, while an upper low currently off the coast of the Pacific NW tracks onto the northern Great Plains. While this high will be centered to our east, it will also intensify, such that mid-level height values don't change appreciable. As such, the well above normal temps persist, with guidance depicting a very gradual cooling trend as temps fall to the upper 80s/low 90s on the Caprock by Thurs, with mid/upper 90s off the Caprock.

Another cold front associated with that northern Plains low will drop south towards the TX Panhandle on Tues, but appears likely to stall north of our area. SW flow between troughing out west and ridging to the east will place the monsoonal moisture plume near our area, but likely focused a bit to the north/west. Still, this pattern should support occasional storm chances during the mid- week period. PoPs increase with northwest extent (closer to the monsoonal moisture plume and the occasional mid-level disturbances), such that the NW portions of the FA have several days with 40-50% (or higher) rain chances, while SE portions of the FA may see little to no rain through Thurs.

Late in the period, another upper wave digs from the Pacific NW and is progged to eject further south than prior waves, reaching the central Plains Friday. This more southerly track favors the associated cold front finally pushing across our FA, which would provide some relief from the relentless summer heat. The latest deterministic NBM drops highs into the 80s across most of the FA by Sat. It's a welcome sight, but as we've seen in previous weeks this upper ridge can be quite stubborn to break down, and the ensemble spread still encompasses a wide range of outcomes, ranging from low 80s to upper 90s depending on the actual evolution of this late week cold front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds are expected mostly from the south through the rest of this evening, however storms continue to quickly develop and die resulting in erratic strong gusts. A shower currently sits to the northwest of KCDS and a second storm to the southwest. These storms could produce a strong outflow that could impact KCDS. These storms are not expected to impact the terminal directly. Winds overnight will shift to the southwest before shifting back to the south Sunday morning. LLWS is also expected overnight at KPVW and KLBB.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-042>044.