textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1003 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Low storm chances continue Wednesday mainly over the southern TX Panhandle before a brief period of drier conditions arrives Thursday.

- Storm chances return Friday and continue each day through the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Quite a dynamic upper air pattern is evident on water vapor imagery late Tuesday evening with deep cyclonic flow in place over most of the CONUS. A deep mid/upper closed low is present over CA/NV, with the negatively tilted upper trough axis responsible for our round of earlier rainfall extending from SE CO over the South Plains region and into N TX as of 02z. This overall setup will remain fairly similar over the next 24 hours or so, with the biggest evolution being the northward shift of the aforementioned negatively tilted trough axis, with this feature expected to center over the TX/OK Panhandle region and potentially evolve into a closed circulation by late Wednesday. At the low levels, an MCV over the SW TX Panhandle is notably weaker than earlier in the day, and will continue to move northward tonight, taking the bulk of the precipitation with it. As a result, a vast majority of the forecast area will be rain-free overnight, with the exception of our far southern TX Panhandle counties which could see on-and- off rain showers continue through sunrise. Otherwise, light winds and earlier precipitation will result in favorable conditions for some fog formation across much of the area overnight which will persist through early Wednesday morning. Morning fog and stratus should dissipate by midday over southern portions of the region, with robust diurnal heating expected thereafter. Most hi-res models indicate a residual outflow boundary will be positioned somewhere over the central or southern TX Panhandle, with the resulting differential heating zone being a favorable spot for the potential development of a couple isolated thunderstorms by late Wednesday afternoon. Where exactly convective initiation occurs (or whether it will occur at all) on Wednesday afternoon is uncertain, as inhibition from capping may be too strong to overcome. However, given the presence of a mid/upper level cool pocket aloft associated with the remnant trough, should storms actually develop, steep lapse rates could support a few severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening which would be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. This activity would then propagate east-southeastward through Wednesday evening. The favored location for storms Wednesday will be our southern TX Panhandle counties where PoPs have been kept highest, with decreasing storm chances and a generally drier forecast farther south.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

On Thursday, the remnant upper low will drift even farther to our north, with a modest upper ridge progged to build over our region ahead of the west coast upper low which will continue to very slowly translate eastward. Thursday is therefore expected to be mainly dry across the region although with temperatures still remaining near average. The upper ridge will shift to our east Friday as intensifying southwesterly flow aloft spreads overhead as the western low begins accelerating northeastward. This setup is expected to bring an increase in storm chances Friday afternoon through late Friday night with an active dryline possible somewhere near the TX/NM state line. Robust instability and better shear magnitudes compared to early this week could result in some severe storms, but overall convective coverage remains uncertain. Southwest flow aloft is progged to persist through the weekend, but modest midlevel height rises and a batch of drier air overhead will result in a decrease in storm chances on Sat-Sun compared to Friday. Models begin to diverge significantly on the evolution of the upper air pattern thereafter, but ensemble consensus still points to the continuation of low storm chances into next week, and temperatures look likely to remain near seasonal averages as well.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Thunderstorms will pass over KCDS over the next hour. Low CIGs of potentially IFR are possible at all sites early Wednesday morning, with KCDS having the highest chances. VFR should return to KPVW and KLBB after sunrise and KCDS by afternoon. Light winds will persist.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.