textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Very warm temperatures will continue through the next several days, and will reach near record highs on Thursday.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly along and west of I-27 on Thursday, with more isolated storms possible Friday and Saturday near the TX/NM state line.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The upper level pattern will remain relatively stagnant over the next 24 hours with our area positioned between broad upper ridging centered over the southeast CONUS and an upper low in the PacNW vicinity. With the western edge of the ridge axis still in place overhead, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue across West TX with Thursday afternoon set to bring another round of high temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Portions of the SE TX Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains are expected to range from 105F to 108F, and a Heat Advisory has therefore been issued for those locations. Record highs for the day (101 at Lubbock and 106 at Childress) will be within reach, but should remain below the all time warmest temperatures on record for September.

Another round of high-based thunderstorms is also expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening given the continued presence of a relatively healthy plume of midlevel moisture overhead and strong diurnal heating. Showers and storms may end up a bit farther east compared to Wednesday, but will still favor areas along and west of the I-27 corridor. Storm coverage will be scattered at best given poorly focused forcing for ascent, with individual cells remaining weak and generally short-lived. As such, the chance for measurable rain at any given location on the Caprock is less than 30%, but the strongest cells could produce brief gusty winds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

High temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 90s and low 100s Friday through the weekend, but storm chances will generally trend downward as the upper level ridge repositions farther west and pushes the best moisture back into NM. Still, a few isolated diurnally driven storms may still occur Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening especially near the TX/NM state line. Confidence is fairly high that warmer than normal temperatures will continue into at least early next week with storm chances remaining minimal. Model spread then increases slightly thereafter with differences in the evolution of the upper ridge. A majority of solutions currently favor a continuation of hot and dry weather, with a subset of ensemble members indicating a return of slightly better moisture and low precipitation chances by the middle of next week. The drier outcome is currently favored with unseasonably warm temperatures still looking likely to continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR and light winds are expected to persist. There remains a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening at KLBB and KPVW, however confidence is still too low to include in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.