textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase this evening along a cold front.

- Much cooler and wetter Sunday and Monday.

- Hot temperatures return mid-week with additional chances of thunderstorms during the second half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Our next cold front is currently moving into northern Kansas/Colorado as of noon. FROPA into the FA is not expected across our northern zones until around 06Z due to its slow passive nature. This cold front will be the focus for our next chance for storms across the region. Late afternoon mountain convection across New Mexico is expected to join with the advancing cold front this evening and begin pushing south to southeastward across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the overnight hours. Upper lift from an upper shortwave trough currently moving into northern New Mexico from Arizona will aid in convective development along the front. The issue will become how far southward will convection push before loosing upper support and being outran by outflow. Current CAMs suggest our northern zones should see storms during the early morning hours before they gust out and dissipate around sunrise. Cooler temperatures will be left it their wake with highs possibly struggling to reach into the 70s across portions of our northern zones. Additional storms are expected to develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico Sunday as surface flow remains upslope and out of the east as another weak upper disturbance moves over the region. This may provide a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms by the late afternoon/evening. As the case has been over the past week or two, the main threats from storms will be wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain with a minor threat for hail up to the size of quarters.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Most convection should remain with the cold front well south of the FA Monday. Light east to southeasterly flow will continue through Monday and, with help from an overhead trough, will keep cloud cover in place and keep Monday cool with highs only expected to rise into the 70s. Warmer temperatures will return by Tuesday as upper flow becomes more northwesterly with surface winds veer to the south to southwest in response to a surface low over the Central and Northern Plains. Summer will once again try to show itself with highs reaching over the century mark area wide Wednesday. Models portray this surface low as being the start of another cold front that is progged to move into the region Thursday. The GFS is has a stronger front that some other global models, but there is consensus on some scattered thunderstorms being possible along the front. Given the lack of strong upper lift at the current time, coverage may be more limited than what models are showing.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A cold front moving southward out of southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas at 2330Z will pass through the terminals late tonight, around and after midnight. In addition to a northerly wind shift, shower/storm chances will increase behind the FROPA. KPVW and KCDS will have the best chance of seeing convection before daybreak Sunday, though confidence in coverage isn't very high, so have handled the possibility with VCTS/VCSH and PROB30 groups. KLBB will see the improving rain/storm chances toward and after daybreak Sunday, when all the terminals are expected to experience ceilings falling to MVFR (and possibly IFR). Areas of showers, perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, will continue through much of Sunday as low clouds likely hold firm.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.