textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist over the next week. Wednesday is expected to be one of the hottest days, with much of the area above 100 degrees and areas off the Caprock near 105.

- An isolated storm or two is possible on the Caprock Wednesday evening. Additional storm chances exist Thursday-Friday. Any storms that do form will be capable of strong wind gusts.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An upper high remains centered over the southeastern US. Sfc troughing over the central Great Plains currently will deepen into a closed low over SE CO by Wed PM, resulting in moderately breezy southerly winds across the FA (peak gusts 25-30 mph).

Hot temps continue, and Wed remains on track to be the hottest day of the week, with forecast highs in the triple digits area-wide. Highs overperformed slightly today, with some areas reaching 104- 105F off the Caprock. Both the probabilistic NBM and the high-res HREF depict a 40-70% chance of reaching 105F in some areas off the Caprock tomorrow. Was on the fence about a Heat Advisory, but ultimately seeing guidance was too cool today tipped the scales towards issuing the advisory for Wednesday. Still, the conditions tomorrow won't register as anything unusual compared to the recent weeks. Over the last three weeks, Childress has experienced highs above 100F on 18 out of 21 days. The continued hot and dry weather has resulted in dry fuels, particularly across the far SE TX panhandle and northern Rolling Plains (ERC values near/above the 90th percentile). Thus, the modest winds may lead to locally elevated fire conditions in those areas Wed PM.

CAMs continue to highlight a low chance for a storm or two during the evening as a weak impulse is positioned on the western side of the upper ridge. Forcing is weak, but this low chance (10-15%) will generally be focused west of Lubbock, closer to the mid/upper level forcing. Forecast soundings/hodographs show modest CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg), weak deep layer shear (less than 20 kts), slightly above normal precipitable water values (around 1.25", or 75th percentile), and a deep inverted-V below the cloud base. Such conditions suggest any storm that does form could produce strong outflow winds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The synoptic pattern is not expected to change much through Friday, with the upper ridge remaining centered over the southeast US. Occasional disturbances lift from the Four Corners region around the periphery of the ridge, tracking NW of the FA. These provide at least some storm chances Thurs and Fri, primarily on the Caprock, where upper heights will be slightly lower and the upper disturbance slightly closer (compared to areas off the Caprock). While storms may be present each evening, the chance of experiencing rain at any specific location is less than 30%. Forecast soundings show similar conditions to that described above for Wed evening, thus while organized severe storms are unlikely, gusty outflows remain possible with any convection.

Over the course of the weekend, the center of the upper ridge gradually shifts west, leading to height rises (subsidence) locally and shifting any potential disturbances further north/west away from the FA. Thus, continued above normal temps and mostly dry conditions will persist through at least early next week. 500mb heights are progged to reach the mid/upper 590s. While the NBM keeps highs below 105F each day, it would not be a surprise if additional heat advisories are needed at times off the Caprock. Medium-to-longer range ensemble guidance suggests this general pattern will persist into late August, and the CPC outlooks indicate a 60-70% chance for above normal temps during the second half of the month, with the chances for above normal precip focused off to the north and west of the FA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR with steady southerly winds of 10-15 knots, gusting over 20 knots this afternoon. Remote chance for a few TS late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of LBB and PVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038.