textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances across portions of the area Thursday morning through evening. Severe weather is unlikely.

- Slight chance of storms Friday, before a hot and dry weekend.

- Cooler and potentially more unsettled conditions next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated and a quiet night is expected with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few showers may linger over the far southern Panhandle overnight but will not amount to much. The tail end of an elongated upper trough will approach from the north by late Thursday morning. The associated surface front and low-level shear will be generally weak, however MUCAPE is exceeding 2000 J/kg on some models and PWATS near 1.5" should be enough for convective initiation with highest chances occurring during the late afternoon time frame. Severe weather is unlikely, although a few brief strong wind gusts and/or heavy downpours are possible. Winds will switch to SE post-frontal. Along with additional cloud cover, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with highs ranging in the mid-to-upper 90s. Storms will taper off by the early morning hours Friday.

Surface winds will switch back southward during the day Friday and highs will be back in the upper 90s and low triple-digits. Most of the day will see mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, however a weak upper shortwave late-day combined with the daytime heating should lead to at least some isolated storms across portions of the area Friday evening and PoPs have been increased to mentionable. These are not expected to be severe either and will taper off by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A strong upper ridge will again build over the region on Saturday leading in part to more potential record breaking temperatures with highs in the low-to-mid triple digits. Height falls Sunday will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees but they will remain well above average for this time of year. An upper trough over the northern Great Plains on Monday will help to displace the aforementioned ridge and lead to potential storm chances over the far southwest Panhandle. Large-scale models indicate a relatively stronger cold front moving through in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame bringing more widespread storm chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Chances for convection at PVW and LBB this afternoon and evening are more uncertain than during the previous TAF cycle. PROB30 will be retained for the time being. Chances are better for CDS to see convection this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.