textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Breezy and milder Thursday ahead of a cold front early Friday morning, cooling us through Saturday.

- Quiet and dry through the extended, with temperatures near normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Following Wednesday's cooldown, Thursday promises a rebound to very mild highs in the 70s courtesy of dry and breezy downslope winds. A surface ridge currently bisecting the forecast area will work into the Brush Country of S TX by Thursday afternoon underneath dry NW flow. Lee troughing will emerge in the wake of this ridge helping to spur breezy west winds of 15 to 20 mph by midday. Very mild 850 mb temps of 14-16C will advect out of NM under full sunshine, so highs should have little trouble soaring into the lower 70s in most areas.

By Thursday evening, weak surface cyclogenesis is progged in the TX Panhandle preceding a shortwave trough in NW flow. As this wave moves overhead after midnight, the surface low and trough will dive toward the I20 corridor turning winds northerly in advance of another pre-dawn cold front.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The rex block pattern will begin to break down by the start of the extended forecast, as a long wave trough encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS deepens while expanding westward in coverage. As a result of this, the upper level high and associate ridge over the PacNW will push west off the California coast. In turn, northerly flow aloft will prevail across the region as we find ourselves sandwiched between the two systems. By the start of the extended, a well defined shortwave translating through the base of the trough will move through the Great Lakes, allowing for a cold front to pass through the FA Friday morning. Behind the front, northerly winds look to become breezy as heights become tightly packed. Which combined with the CAA in place, should allow for temperatures to fall 15 to 20 degrees from Thursday back in the 50s and 60s. Compared to this time yesterday, models have turned to Saturday looking to be a chilly one as an additional closed low pinches off, deepening the southern extent of the shortwave. Models depict then another front, backdoor in nature, moving through the FA by Saturday morning. The continuation of northerly flow at the surface will allow for the continuation of CAA into the FA, which combined with the surface high advancing southward over the area will help keep the airmass in place with NBM suggesting highs in the 40s. There remains a bit of skepticism regarding temperatures Saturday given the run to run model difference. Will opt to maintain NBM temperatures at this time as the NAM and MOS guidance remains far too cool given the uncertainty. Through the weekend into early next week, the synoptic pattern will remain similar as the long wave trough prevails. Therefore, we can expect similar temperatures and dry conditions to continue as a series of shortwaves continue, likely leading to a few additional fronts as we enter early next week. Despite the front, temperatures will only cool back to near normal given we have been rather warm for January standards. The exception will be for Saturday if models come to fruition with the chilly afternoon highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR. Westerly winds will become breezy by late morning at KLBB and KPVW, with gusts up to 25 kt expected through 23Z. Winds will remain light at KCDS. A cold front will then arrive late tonight and transition winds to the north post-frontal passage.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.