textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Slightly breezier and warmer conditions are forecast through the middle of the upcoming week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast to develop Monday afternoon across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

- There is a slim chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday morning) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a subtropical ridge was centered over the Four Corners, with a closed, positively-tilted trough digging southward along the Pacific Coast. The subtropical ridge will continue to deamplify while shifting eastward into the southern Great Plains over the next 24 hours as a northern-stream shortwave trough also digs southward into central Canada. At the surface, a weak anticyclone was located near the TX Hill County, with a gentle, southwesterly breeze intact area-wide. Although the subtropical ridge will be deamplifying as it shifts over the CWA Sunday, a shortwave impulse will translate through the apex of the ridge and generate a lee cyclone in southeastern CO. Leeward pressure falls will steepen slightly as the surface trough to the west of the CWA begins to sharpen, with southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph (including gusts) area-wide Sunday. The effects of adiabatic compression associated with the southwesterly fetch will aid in warming temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the Caprock, and into the lower-middle 80s in the Rolling Plains. As the shortwave impulse propagates over the CWA by solar noon, thickening bands of cirrus will also advect in from the west, which will affect RH reductions within the boundary-layer. Therefore, only locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across the far southwestern TX PH Sunday afternoon, where fuels remain very dry amidst RH values falling to near 15 percent. Leeward pressure falls will remain intact overnight into Monday, with the southwesterly breeze yielding much warmer lows compared to prior mornings.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Subtropical ridging will continue to flatten while shifting eastward Monday, as the positively-tilted trough to the west begins to open and phase with the northern-stream troughing. The surface trough previously located along and west of the NM state line is forecast to propagate eastward across the CWA Monday while transitioning into a dryline. Very warm to even hot surface temperatures are expected to evolve as winds shift westward on the backside of the dryline despite a rather thick cirrus shield aloft. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast to develop Monday afternoon across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains, with the exception of areas from Yoakum County eastward into Stonewall County due to the recent bout of rainfall. Dewpoints were lowered as boundary-layer depths ascend into the mid-levels to the west of the dryline, which will yield RH reductions into the lower teens in the dry sector.

The anticyclonic wave breaking event over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will near its completion by the middle of the week, with the positively-tilted trough pivoting into the Desert Southwest and phasing with the northern-stream jetlet nosing southward over the Great Basin. A synoptic cold front will also progress towards the CWA in congruence with the meridional jetlet, with the front potentially stalling across the CWA Tuesday afternoon. The cirrus shield will continue to thicken due to the belt of vigorous and moist, isentropic ascent confined within the mid/upper-level theta surfaces. NBM PoPs were quite aggressive with the initialization this evening for the northwestern zones, but were capped at 20 percent, as thunderstorm potential should be limited as the front loses its anafrontal properties amidst very weak CAPE for elevated parcels. The dry slot is forecast to emerge over the CWA Wednesday as the base of the trough progresses towards the I-35 corridor, with a secondary cold front moving through W TX Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Dry and warmer weather is forecast by the tail-end of the week as a shortwave ridge emerges over the southern Great Plains ahead of a closed low wobbling over the Sonoran Desert.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period with breezy southwest winds Sunday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.