textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across portions of the Caprock late this evening. Severe potential is low, but can expect gusty winds and outflows with these storms.

- Slight cool down and widespread thunderstorm chances over the weekend.

- Cooler highs continue through next week with daily slight thunderstorm chances across southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The rest of today into tonight will be a similar setup to Thursday. Upper ridging will dominate to our west and will keep the FA under clear skies. Convective development is expected across the higher terrain of northeast New Mexico late this afternoon into the evening, especially as a quasi-stationary front drifts southward across the northern Texas Panhandle into northeastern New Mexico. This activity should make it into the western Texas Panhandle by late evening and possibly into our far northwestern zones before dissipating due to loss of surface heating. The main threat from any convection will be strong wind gusts up to 70 mph, but the overall severe risk is low. The upper high will amplify overnight through Saturday with the high eventually being centered over the Four Corners with overhead upper flow being mostly out of the north. While this usually results in reduced precip chances, the remnants of the stationary front will still be in the region and could be the focus for unorganized convective development Saturday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe storms will be similar to that of this evening, low with wind gusts to 70 mph being the main risk. Slightly increased cloud cover along with the remnant stationary front should help cool Saturday afternoon highs by a couple degrees over what is expected today.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The forecast for Sunday and beyond and somewhat quiet and dominated by an upper high across most of the CONUS. The upper high will build over the Central Rockies into the Northern Plains late Sunday through at least mid next week. This will spell hot and dry weather for the aforementioned area. For West Texas, we will see slightly cooler highs, averaging in the mid/upper 80s on the Caprock and low to mid 90s off the Caprock, and low daily rain chances. Rain chances will be depending on a combination of available surface boundaries and weaknesses rotating around the southern edge of the upper high. The upper high is progged to migrate back over the western CONUS by late next week with a return of hot temperatures to the FA.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will become breezy around 15G25KTs this afternoon before calming through the evening. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.