textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Hot and generally dry weather continues through midweek.

- Temperatures are likely to reach or exceed 105 degrees off the Caprock Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Ridging aloft kept conditions dry across the South Plains region Sunday evening, and this trend is generally expected to continue as we begin a new work week. Overnight convection well to our north over the central TX Panhandle will again send an outflow boundary southward into our area by Monday morning, with the boundary progged to become more diffuse as it lifts northward Monday afternoon. Storm chances will remain quite low on Monday as continued large scale subsidence is expected to prevent most if not all robust convective development locally. The one exception could be the SE TX Panhandle which may see an isolated storm or two given closer proximity to the belt of midlevel moisture and modest upslope flow near the edge of the Caprock. Even so,the large majority of the forecast area is expected to remain dry on Monday. In terms of temperatures, very similar conditions compared to the past couple of days are expected given the center of the upper ridge remaining just to our east. Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s on the Caprock, with low 100s expected once again east of the escarpment.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The upper level ridge will translate westward during the middle of the week, resulting in another warm up and continuation of largely dry weather across West TX. Highs Tue-Wed are expected to be near 100 over the South Plains and SW TX Panhandle, and NBM probs highlight a 60-80% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees off the Caprock both days. Ridging aloft shifts farther westward Thursday through the end of the week, but most model solutions still favor highs remaining above normal. Despite a series of more progressive upper shortwaves moving over the central/northern plains, at the moment it appears quite unlikely that any impactful cold front will make it anywhere near our area late in the week with ensemble consensus still overwhelmingly favoring above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. However, the positioning of the ridge over the Four Corners will result in at least some degree of northwest flow aloft over our area which results in low PoPs each evening from Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies persist. Light winds will be variable through the morning, followed by SSE winds for much of the afternoon/evening at KPVW/KLBB.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.