textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Fog is expected across much of the area Thursday morning.

- High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for the entire region with locally heavy rainfall possible. A Flood Watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Another quiet yet moist night is expected ahead of the afternoon/evening rain event. Fog is expected again at least on the Caprock tonight through mid morning as surface dew points remain near 60/61 with temps in the mid 60s. Both LBB and PVW have dropped to 5 SM as of 03Z and will likely drop further through the early morning hours.

Moisture from Tropical Depression Vance is beginning to make its way northward from the eastern Pacific. This rich moisture will move over the region just as an upper shortwave trough develops and also moves over the region. PWATs are still progged to increase to 1.5 inches or greater over the FA. The combination of rich moisture and lift will be more than enough for widespread rain shower development, with many showers producing heavy rainfall. Current QPF estimates are widespread 1.5-2 inches. As locally higher amounts are very possible and overall rainfall rates are expected to be on the heavy side, an area wide Flood Watch has been issued. NBM guidance has highs in the low to upper 70s today, but this seems to be a bit optimistic. Though rain isn't expected to begin until at least the afternoon, cloud cover will be present from the morning onward and should help to keep temps on the cool side.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The upper shortwave will be slow to move out of the region and will allow rain showers to persist through much of Friday as well, though lighter amounts and rainfall rates are expected by this point. Upper flow will become more southwesterly by the weekend as upper ridging builds slightly. Another upper disturbance looks possible early next week. An upper low will move into the coast of southern California by late Sunday and will phase with an upper trough moving over the Pacific Northwest. While some rainfall does look possible with this next system, there is still a potential for dry-slotting. A cold front looks to follow behind this system as it moves past the FA by late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCDS through the TAF period. VFR conditions currently at KPVW and KLBB, however MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to fill in overnight. Fog is also impacting both terminals at the moment, however visibilities are expected to remain VFR. The low ceilings and fog are expected to burn off during the morning hours. Widespread rain chances are expected to begin Thursday evening and continue through Friday. KLBB has better chances for long periods of rainfall. Through this TAF period, KPVW and KCDS may only see sporadic periods of rainfall before will fill in Friday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday afternoon for TXZ021>044.