textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue this weekend, but will trend slightly lower next week.

- A few storms are expected Friday and Saturday, but dry weather will otherwise continue.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Water vapor imagery late Thursday evening highlights an elongated upper level ridge axis extending from the OH Valley westward over OK and into NW TX, a positioning generally unchanged from this time yesterday. Continued southerly surface flow overnight will keep lows mild, with temperatures only falling into low to mid 70s by Friday morning which is several degrees above the normal low for this time of year. Although the center of the ridge aloft is progged to shift slightly westward over the next 24 hours, minimal change in H5 heights will result in temperatures similar to or even a bit cooler on Friday compared to Thursday. A weakness along the western extent of the ridge associated with a monsoonal moisture plume centered over NM will also result in yet another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening. Confidence in storm coverage and favored location for development is low given uncertainty in the magnitude of mid/upper level subsidence with the building ridge. However, forecast soundings depict minimal inhibition which combined with relatively steep low/mid level lapse rates should provide a favorable setup for isolated storms to develop just about anywhere across the forecast area Friday afternoon. That being said, coverage will likely be highest (though still scattered at best) near the TX/NM state line in closer proximity to the deeper moisture. Storms will again quickly fade after sunset with another quiet overnight period expected heading into the holiday weekend.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

One more round of isolated storms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening near the TX/NM state line before the building upper level ridge cuts off our supply of monsoonal moisture. Models remain in good agreement keeping ridging firmly in place through early next week with high temperatures expected to remain in the range of about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, though at this time it appears that highs will remain below record levels. Model spread still increases heading into the second half of the week with the precise evolution of the riding aloft remaining uncertain. Even so, it looks unlikely that any meaningful moisture will be able to move over the West TX region, and the large majority of ensemble members maintain a dry and anomalously warm forecast through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible once again this afternoon and evening. While overall storm chances are low, any storm that affects a terminal will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 45 knots.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.