textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Much cooler Saturday ahead of highs in the 50s and 60s next week.

- Chances for freezing fog and/or freezing drizzle overnight Friday through early Saturday afternoon. - Warming back up to near seasonal normals Sunday through next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A quiet day is in store this afternoon as the forecast area remains positioned between two systems, with the large scale trough dominating over eastern CONUS while an upper ridge amplifies over the western CONUS. As a result, we will continue to see northwest flow aloft prevail over the region through the period. As the center of the upper level low shifts eastward across the northeast, a cutoff low will become established, quickly digging southeastward into the southeastern CONUS by Saturday. In turn, an associated Canadian FROPA will work its way into the region overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Hi-resolution models are in decent agreement with the FROPA timing, entering our most northern counties around midnight and making its way through our most southern counties before daybreak.Therefore a quick blast of cooler air will work its way into the region as the surface high moves southward.As for temperatures Saturday, they remain a low confidence forecast, despite FROPA timing being high confidence. This is for a few reasons, one being that winds will be quick to veer out of the southwest by Saturday afternoon as a lee-side trough develops in southeastern CO. The second being the anticipation of low-level stratus sticking around through the early afternoon, which would throw a wrench in diurnal heating. All this to say, if clouds stick around and winds are not as quick to recover then we could see highs a little closer to MET guidance in the 20s (across our northeastern counties) and 30s.

As the front moves through overnight into tomorrow morning, low- level upslope flow will aid in modest boundary layer moistening. Supporting the potential for development of freezing fog and areas of freezing drizzle. Taking a look at forecast soundings across the area, they indicate a shallow saturated column of moisture confined to the lowest levels with temperatures generally subfreezing. While the column above remains dry and shallow within the DGZ to support anything more than FZDZ and/or FZFG. These conditions may persists through the early afternoon, primarily on the Caprock before we dry out during the late afternoon and early evening. Given the potential, light icing on elevated surfaces will be possible Saturday morning. Exercise caution and allow yourself more drive time on your morning commute.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The upper air pattern is generally progged to deamplify through the second half of the weekend and into next week as the potent upper low over the east coast exits over the Atlantic and weak ridging builds over the southwestern CONUS. This will result in a quick return of warmer weather during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe as southwesterly surface flow persists with highs generally in the 60s each afternoon. By the middle of next week, model consensus suggests a Rex block will establish over CA/Baja which will allow stronger northwest flow aloft to position over the West TX region. Consequently, there will be the potential for a weak cold front or two late next week, but at this point model and MOS consensus still favors temperatures to remain near or above normal. Overall, a dry and uneventful forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the day. Overnight winds will begin to shift out of the northeast following the passage of a cold front. Behind the front, low CIGS are expected to develop in addition to the potential for patchy freezing fog and/or freezing drizzle. However, confidence in both of these remains too low for a TAF mention and will need to re-evaluated in the next issuance.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.