textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Cold front this morning will bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances today.

- High chances of widespread rainfall late this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue overnight ahead of a cold front expected Tuesday morning. These breezy winds and mostly cloudy skies will keep overnight lows well above seasonal normal in the 40s to 50s. Surface observations show the cold front is currently pushing through Kansas as of 11 PM. If it doesn't hit any bumps in the road, the front is progged to reach the northern border of the CWA around sunrise. Following the front, breezy winds will shift to the north. Mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds will cool temperatures today, although remain well above seasonal normal with highs in the 60s across much of the region. Precipitation chances return this afternoon and evening with the passing of an upper system. Flow aloft shifted to the southwest Monday as an upper low tracked over Baja Mexico. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to prevail through Tuesday morning ushering mid to upper level subtropical moisture over the region. Although the current track of the upper system has it passing just to the south of our region, diffluence from a passing upper jet, lingering isentropic lift from the FROPA, and a moist atmosphere will bring chances for isolated to scattered rain showers beginning this afternoon through late tonight with the greatest chances across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Rain chances will gradually end before midnight as the upper system exits away from the region. Tonight will be much cooler compared to the previous night as light winds and clearing skies allow for radiational cooling. However, clouds are expected to linger over southern and eastern portions of the Rolling Plains, therefore will see a wide range of lows tonight in the upper 20s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 40s for the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The main forecast issue in the long term will be the potential for precipitation from early Friday into Saturday. Wednesday will still be a relatively cool day with mostly easterly low level upslope flow during the daytime. A surface ridge will be moving southeastward down the Missouri River valley still exerting some influence over West Texas. Return flow will begin late in the day drawing in low level moisture northward from the Gulf. As a short wave moves east of the area on Wednesday, short wave ridging will then move overhead. We will see further rising of heights on Thursday in advance of the next upper level system moving onshore in southern California. This troughing over the western CONUS on Thursday will induce cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies. The increase in heights and downsloping westerly winds will significantly boost temperatures to values on the order of 20-25 degrees above seasonal averages.

There still exists much run to run variability regarding the upper low to affect the area on Friday and Saturday this week likely stemming from the fact that this system is still hanging out in the Gulf of Alaska. The AI-GEFS shows fairly large spread as this system moves across Texas late this week as well. One thing that does look fairly certain is that there will be no relatively cold air to be found which would keep precipitation away from the wintry type. A cold front early Saturday will knock temperatures back down closer to seasonal averages, otherwise, warm weather will return late in the weekend into early next week as upper level ridging builds back overhead.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR with gusty N winds later this morning following FROPA. Just an outside chance that some -SHRA sneak north into LBB this afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.