textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Strong westerly winds and some blowing dust return Friday afternoon along with critical fire weather.

- Cool start to the weekend before wind and warmth return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Surface obs at 10 PM were sampling a backdoor front from about Vega to Happy and Paducah. Temps were properly cool behind this front with some upper 20s and low 30s looming north of I40 and this appears to be a growing factor in the front not retreating as rapidly on Friday afternoon as earlier indicated. High res models are in good agreement in cool SSE source flow holding over all but our far western column of counties by 18Z Friday, so winds were adjusted accordingly. Aloft meanwhile, WSW flow will sharpen through the day as a shortwave trough peels across the Four Corners subjecting most areas on the Caprock to 25-30 knots of westerly 850 mb flow and around 50-55 knots at 700 mb. Lee cyclogenesis in southeast CO will also aid in regional pressure falls and a sharpening pressure gradient. As deeper westerly flow exits NM, the earlier front will retreat east as a warm front through the day, but now looks to fall short of the Rolling Plains where cooler SSE flow remains wedged in place. Mixing heights behind the front are shown to max out near 700 mb in dry westerly flow, so the Wind Advisory looks good for all of the Caprock. Even if the front accelerates faster than most models show, a bigger fly in the ointment regarding strong winds is seen with a growing signal for a bifurcated 850 mb wind max that could leave a good chunk of the South Plains in between the wind cores. Confidence in this detail is not high enough to justify changes but later shifts will monitor.

A Pacific front and growing occluded front will finally sweep east Friday evening and overtake the stubborn front expected to be loitering near the edge of the Caprock. Although NW flow fills in behind this FROPA, low temps Saturday morning should not be too dissimilar from Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

No tangible evidence of precip is evident for this part of Texas in the next week as the upper jet displaces well to our north courtesy of anomalous ridging over the western CONUS. Until this ridge takes shape by early next week, the weekend starts off on a cool note on the heels of Friday night's upper trough and Pacific FROPA. Cool surface ridging slowly departs by Sunday underneath rising heights in NW flow. High temps moderate slowly through Monday as lee troughing becomes better established, but it looks to take until Tuesday before we see pronounced warming arrive once the lee trough sharpens and accelerates our downslope winds. Upper ridging by Tuesday is progged to span the Continental Divide before collapsing on Wednesday as a train of Pacific troughs shoot across the northern Rockies. This would likely lead to even more wind and very warm temps for the latter half of the week complete with daily fire weather concerns.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

East-southeasterly winds at KLBB and KPVW will veer towards the southwest this afternoon and to the west by sunset as a Pacific cold front moves into W TX. Wind speeds will also increase after 18Z, with gusts to 30-35 kt possible, at KLBB and KPVW. BLDU may occur at KLBB and KPVW leading up to sunset, but restrictions to VSBYs are not expected. Winds will remain out of the south and slightly breezy at KCDS. Winds will diminish quickly after sunset and transition to the northwest overnight. VFR otherwise.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

After steady southeast breezes of 10-15 mph Friday morning, strong westerly winds will return to the Caprock on Friday. These winds will be strongest near the TX-NM border where sustained speeds around 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50 to 55 mph at times in the afternoon. These winds are expected to fall short of the edge of the Caprock by Friday afternoon, so the Red Flag Warning was updated to remove Motley and Dickens county. Areas farther west can still expect RHs to tumble into the low/mid teens by mid-afternoon resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions. Winds will decrease by sunset and turn northwesterly overnight behind a cold front.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.