textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Showers and storms, some with heavy rain, shifting off the Caprock this afternoon.

- Low chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday followed by better chances Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Welcome rain was slowly ending over the South Plains early this afternoon ahead of a decaying MCV. This circulation will continue to drift north from near Levelland to Dimmitt this afternoon while advecting drier air around itself, so rainfall coverage and intensity will trend lower over the Caprock as a whole. A window for weak and brief non-supercell tornadoes (NST) will linger over the far southwest TX Panhandle through 1 PM along an axis of low- level CAPE with low LFCs and rich surface vorticity. This NST threat should quickly shift north and out of our forecast area. Off the Caprock meanwhile, deeper ascent preceding a broad negatively-tilted trough will sustain a greater coverage of showers and storms through the afternoon. Ahead of this trough, deep southeast flow from the surface to 500 mb complete with PWATs around 1.5 inches will make for efficient rainfall and localized flooding, particularly with any training cells. Farther south in the Permian Basin, CAMs are keen to advect another MCV northward later today which should prolong PoPs over the eastern half of the forecast area before a steady downturn in precip takes hold tonight on the heels of the upper trough.

After some lingering stratus Wednesday morning, sunshine will return to much of the area under deeper and drier westerly flow. With a compact upper low forecast to develop in western TX Panhandle and drift north through the day, much of the area stands to see quiet and dry weather given poor support for ascent. NBM's rain chances were pulled much lower with only 20-30 PoPs relegated to our northern zones nearest the upper low. High temps will be coolest across the north with 80s making a return elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper ridging builds Wednesday night through Thursday making for mostly dry conditions until a slow-moving upper low lifts across the Four Corners on Friday and spreads stronger WSW flow our way. In addition to a subtropical jet shifting overhead, a dryline should make a return to eastern NM and focus better chances for storms on the Caprock. Severe prospects would be in play given the pattern and growing support from various medium-range AI NWPs. Thereafter, a semi-active pattern of southwest flow aloft should carry into early next week with daily chances for storms continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

LBB should be clear of TSRA by 18Z, though some additions rain showers will be possible over the next several hours and will include MVFR CIGs. PVW conditions will lag LBB by an hour or two. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms remain near CDS and will not clear the terminal until around 00Z. VFR conditions will temporarily prevail at the terminals through midnight before MVFR to possibly IFR CIGs move overhead. Conditions should improve to VFR after 12Z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.