textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Hot temperatures just below Heat Advisory level expected everyday through early next week.

- Slight chances for isolated storms Wednesday evening.

- Better storm chances expected Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging across much of southern CONUS. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will keep temperatures hot and conditions dry today. Temperatures will slightly increase today compared to yesterday, however only by a degree or two. Highs on the Caprock remain forecasted in the upper 90s. Off the Caprock is expected to reach around 100 to 102, just below Heat Advisory temperatures. South to southwesterly winds will become breezy this afternoon as a surface trough across CO and northern NM tightens the pressure gradient. Winds will weaken this evening as the pressure gradient loosens as the surface trough transitions to a closed low. Overnight will be quiet with seasonably warm lows. Lows will range from upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s across southern Rolling Plains.

If you guessed Wednesday would be hot again, then you will be correct with it looking to be the hottest day this week. The persistent upper ridging will remain over the region Wednesday, however it will begin to retreat east as an upper trough amplifies down the western coast. Thickness increases due to the region will once again increase temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the triple digits across the forecast area Wednesday. The aforementioned surface low will remain across eastern CO tightening the pressure gradient bringing breezy southerly winds through the afternoon again. Winds will slightly shift to the southeast and weaken through the late afternoon and evening as a secondary surface trough expands across NM. Slight convergence on the southern end of the secondary surface trough will bring possibility for isolated thunderstorms across the South Plains Wednesday evening. Models indicate isolated storms will develop across southwestern South Plains and push northeast. There is plenty of moisture with PWATs between 1.25" to 1.5", however not much in terms of forcing. If storms are able to form, with CAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, severe thunderstorms could be possible, however unlikely. With inverted-v soundings, storms are expected to be elevated therefore, can expect breezy winds and outflows. These storms are expected to be short lived with models indicating storms develop just before sunset, however clear out just after sunset.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Temperatures remain hot through the long term, however, we will see a slight "cooling" trend beginning Thursday. The upper trough mentioned in the short term discussion will continue to expand across western CONUS on Thursday. This will push the upper ridging farther east with the western edge sitting directly overhead. Temperatures on the Caprock will cool back down to the upper 90s. Sadly, triple temperature highs remain forecasted off the Caprock. Similar high temperatures are expected everyday through the weekend as the upper pattern doesn't seem to change. The upper ridging will remain across southeastern CONUS as the aforementioned upper trough deamplifies. This will allow the upper ridging to retreat back to the west early next week. A passing shortwave on Thursday and another one on Friday will bring chances for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. Otherwise, the rest of the weekend and into early next week look to be dry.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail, along with southerly winds generally around 10-15 kts. Gusts may reach as high as 25 kts Wed afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.