textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Chances for rain will continue through Sunday morning.

- Rain possible Tuesday and again this up coming weekend.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected continue through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Rain showers have begun to move into the FA as of 9 PM ahead of an upper shortwave trough. Radar returns are very limited at the moment but should grow slightly as better lift moves over the region into the early morning hours. No rain has been reported as reaching the ground so far in the FA and is due to a combination of 30+ dewpoint depressions at the surface and better lift being located to our southwest. We should see some top-down moistening as the night progresses with sprinkles being possible before the shortwave fizzles out and ceases to exist. The forecast for the rest of today through early Monday morning is relatively quiet. The upper low remains quasi-stationary just off the coast of Baja as upper ridging continues to dominate West Texas. A secondary upper shortwave trough, currently making its way eastward across the Rockies, will bring a very weak cold front into our northern zones by sunrise and be south of the FA by early afternoon. The most notable cooling of surface temps will be Monday morning's lows which will be slightly cooler than what we should see by sunrise this morning. Much of this cooling will also be attributed to radiational cooling as skies will also be clearer this evening into Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

No change to the long term forecast. Well above seasonal normal temperatures and precipitation chances remain forecasted. To start off the work week, upper ridging will persist aloft Monday, although will begin to exit to the east as a closed upper low translates northeast across northern Mexico. Will be another warm day Monday as slight thickness increases and breezy southwesterly surface winds will aid in warming highs to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Precipitation chances are expected to return Tuesday. With the approaching upper system, flow aloft will shift to the southwest ushering in subtropical moisture to the mid and upper levels. Models are in better agreement in the progression of this upper system with both ECMWF and GFS indicating the upper low will open into a trough before clipping southern portions of our region. However, the models differ in timing with ECMWF having a faster progression compared to GFS. On the surface, a cold front is progged to push south through the region Tuesday morning. Subtropical moisture in addition to sufficient low to upper level lift, rain showers will be possible during the day Tuesday with the greatest chances over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. With the passage of the cold front and mostly cloudy skies during the day Tuesday, can also expect "cooler" temperatures with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. As the aforementioned upper system departs from the region, zonal flow will take over aloft gradually warming temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures looks to be this upcoming weekend with models indicating a positively tilted trough translating over the Four Corners region towards the CWA through the latter half of the week. However, as this is a little under a week out, confidence at the moment is low and can expect changes in future forecasts.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.