textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms chances remain into the early evening, the severe threat remains low.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday with daily chances for thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Thunderstorms have developed over the past hour across much of our northern zones along multiple surface boundaries and is expected to continue through the next several hours while progressing southward. So far most storms have remained tamed with no significant wind gusts. A low end marginal risk for severe storms does remain across the region but is mostly for rouge gusts in excess of 60 mph which should be few and far in between. Brief heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms, but the overall flooding risk remains low outside of urban street flooding. Convection should move mostly to our south by the evening into the early morning hours following outflow, but the possibility for isolated storms will remain through the night. The upper high currently over the Inner Mountain West will continue drifting northward through the rest of the day before settling over the Northern Plains late this evening and remain there through Monday. This will place the FA under easterly surface and upper flow and begin a slight cooling trend with highs topping out in the upper 80s to near 90 Monday. Additional convection will be possible along remnant outflow boundaries and the ever present stationary front Monday afternoon and evening but, as with today, the severe threat will remain low with the greatest risk being wind gusts up to 60-70 mph.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The overall pattern through Wednesday remains the same with the upper high remaining situated across the Northern Plains with mostly easterly surface and upper flow dominating the FA. This will help keep temps on the cool side and allow for daily isolated to scattered storm chances. Models do remain, however, unsure of the future evolution of the upper high as we approach late week into the weekend. Saturday's runs had the upper high remaining over the Northern Plains leaving little forecast change from day to day through the week. Today's GFS now pushes the upper high eastward over the middle Mississippi River Valley while pushing the best storm chances westward over the Desert Southwest. The ECMWF is similar, but also splits the upper high into two pieces, one over the southeast CONUS and the other over the Inner Mountain West and would result in much warmer and drier conditions. Uncertainty for the late week forecast will likely remain over the next few days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Ceilings will bounce back and forth between VFR and MVFR CIGs through the evening at both KPVW and KLBB as -TSRA and VCTS move towards the terminals. A period of brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with storms that pass through. Storms are expected to clear before midnight with CIGs at all sites returning back to VFR through the rest of the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.