textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Near average highs in the 60s and dry conditions for the next several days.

- Increasing chances of precipitation this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A weakening upper level low was swirling overhead late on Monday evening. As the system slowly moves eastward, mid and high level cloud cover will continue to decrease through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Although winds will be out of the southwest to west early Tuesday morning, light winds may allow fog to develop especially for areas on the caprock. Guidance is quite bullish on widespread fog Tuesday morning. Ensemble probabilities of light fog are high favoring areas on the caprock with deterministic models showing dense fog. Fog and low stratus may stick around for much of the morning, not clearing out across the southwestern South Plains until closer to noon. Despite this morning cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be nearly identical to what was observed on Monday which was close to seasonal averages.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A highly amplified pattern will develop mid-week developing an omega block across the center of the CONUS. The blocking pattern will keep the weather uneventful for the remainder of the week. This will continue to keep temperatures close to seasonal averages through the week. A number of short wave troughs will drop southeastward around the trough on the east side of the omega block this week. A few cold fronts may make it into the area with the first early on Wednesday and possibly a back door front on Friday. Conditions will change for the upcoming weekend as the blocking pattern starts to break down and shift eastward. A short wave trough will rotate out of northern Mexico this weekend around the larger trough covering the western CONUS. Guidance has trended to a negative tilt with this trough favoring increasing precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Main concern is potential for dense fog on the Caprock Tuesday morning (09-15z). The best chances are to the southwest of LBB, but current satellite imagery already shows fog developing faster than anticipated across W TX and E NM, so went aggressive and included a tempo group for 1 mile vis at LBB. Once any fog dissipates, the rest of the period should be VFR. Winds remain light, generally out of the southwest or west, but turning to northwest late in the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.