textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Elevated fire danger expected the rest of the afternoon for portions of the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with the possibility for a light freeze/frost across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle early Thursday morning.

- Elevated to critical fire danger possible Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The cold front has pushed through the region early this morning. Moderate to breezy northerly winds have filled in across much the region behind the front. Westerly winds across New Mexico are expected to ramp up in the next couple of hours in response to a lee surface low over northeastern New Mexico. These breezy westerly winds are expected to bleed over the border and spread across much of the Caprock resulting in the cold front retreating. Models indicate the front will stall at a northwest to southeast orientation across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to central Rolling Plains. This will result in a large MaxT gradient this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s across the far southern Texas Panhandle to lower 90s over southern Rolling Plains. Elevated fire danger is expected for areas on the Caprock with breezy westerly winds, warm temperatures, and RH values dropping to upper teens. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for portions of the South Plains and the far southwestern Texas Panhandle from 2 PM until 8 PM today.

As the breezy winds begin to diminish this evening, the front will push back across the region. Should be a quiet night with light and variable winds and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. As the front spreads across the region, a low stratus layer will fill in over the far southern Texas Panhandle and much of the Rolling Plains. These clouds are expected to linger through Wednesday morning and should clear out through the early afternoon hours. Wednesday looks to be a similar set up as today. An upper trough will translate over the Rockies triggering the development of a lee surface low over northeastern New Mexico resulting in breezy westerly winds across the Caprock through the afternoon. The front will backtrack to a similar placement as today, however we are not expecting a large MaxT with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Elevated fire danger will be possible tomorrow across the Caprock with breezy winds and RH values decreasing to the lower teens, especially along the NM/TX border.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The surface low responsible for the breezy winds Wednesday afternoon will weaken around sunset resulting in the breezy westerly winds diminishing through the evening hours. This will allow the cold front to advance through the region once again. Breezy north to northeasterly winds will fill in across the region behind the front. Temperatures will be much cooler overnight through Thursday morning compared to previous nights with lows in the lower 30s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 40s over southern Rolling Plains. As RH values recover to near 100 percent and temperatures cooling to around freezing, frost will be possible early Thursday morning across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. North to northeasterly surface flow will prevail through Thursday afternoon keeping cooler temperatures during the day Thursday with highs in the 70s across the region. However, the cooler temperatures do not last through the weekend. A passing shortwave over the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee low which will shift the winds to the south Thursday evening through Friday. South to southwesterly surface flow will warm temperatures back into the 80s and 90s Friday and Saturday with some areas over the southern Rolling Plains possibly seeing triple digit highs Saturday. Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible Friday and Saturday with hot temperatures, windy and dry conditions. Models indicate a cold front will push through the region overnight Saturday through early Sunday cooling temperatures for the start of next week, although not by much. Otherwise, there is no precipitation in sight for the long term forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

MVFR CIGs are expected to develop at KCDS after midnight and persist through Wednesday morning. Lesser chances of MVFR will occur at KPVW, however has been included in the TAF for a more brief period as well in the morning. KLBB should remain VFR through the TAF period. Breezy generally easterly winds will switch to westerly for KLBB and KPVW Wednesday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.