textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions will continue on both Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Rolling Plains and southeastern Texas Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

- Cooler weather arrives Tuesday and continues through the rest of the week along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The synoptic pattern has remained relatively unchanged over the past 24 hours, with the exception of gradually deepening cyclonic flow aloft over the western half of the CONUS as embedded shortwave troughing digs southward over the Great Basin. As a result, another very breezy and unseasonably warm day is on the way for Sunday across West TX. Similar to the past few days, robust overnight low level moisture return will result in relatively humid conditions Sunday morning, but southwesterly surface flow will quickly intensify by midday as a trough axis centered near the OK Panhandle deepens to about 990mb, in turn resulting in a very quick warm-up and resumption of deep diurnal mixing. The dryline is again expected to mix just east of the Caprock Escarpment Sunday afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions to its west and slightly backed surface flow to its east over the SE TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas west of the dryline on Sunday, with widespread critical fire weather conditions expected given the strong southwest winds and extremely dry fuels.

Overall, the vast majority of the forecast area will remain dry on Sunday, but there is a slim chance that an isolated storm or two develops during the afternoon and evening hours. Should this occur, it would most likely be over the SE TX Panhandle and points north and east, with forecast soundings depicting a stout capping inversion in place farther south. Large-scale forcing for ascent is also progged to be quite weak, so any storm activity is expected to be very isolated over our forecast area. Still, plentiful instability (MLCAPE above 1500 J/kg) and slightly better shear magnitudes compared to days past will allow any storm that does develop to easily become severe. Any storm activity will end after sunset with another dry and mild overnight period expected, with some low cloud cover also expected to develop heading into Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Monday is shaping up to be a significant fire weather day, in addition to low chances for severe storms over the Rolling Plains. The aforementioned upper shortwave trough axis initially over UT will shift eastward over CO through the day, which will induce rapid lee cyclogenesis over SE CO and NE NM. This impressive surface trough will then move over the OK/TX Panhandles Monday afternoon, bringing a period of strong southwest winds to the Caprock as the dryline mixes over the Rolling Plains. Gradient winds will be relatively strong for mid May on Monday with sustained speeds nearing advisory levels over most of the Caprock, and this will result in critical to locally extremely critical fire weather conditions across the South Plains and much of the southern TX Panhandle. The strongest winds and most critical fire weather will occur over the southern TX Panhandle where some gusts to 50 mph are not out of the question, but rapid fire spread will be likely anywhere a fire develops given the strong winds, unseasonable heat, and RH values in the single digits. The other story for Monday will be the potential for severe storms along and east of the dryline. Currently, we expect the dryline to position a bit farther east Monday compared to Sunday, which will limit severe storm chances to the eastern Rolling Plains, and perhaps the far SE TX Panhandle. Forcing for ascent will be stronger compared to over the weekend, so storms may be a bit more numerous. Nevertheless, the position of the dryline is expected to keep the window for severe storms Monday relatively small in our forecast area before any activity exits to our east.

A welcomed cooldown will arrive on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region during the early morning hours. There is some potential for additional thunderstorms to occur along the front late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, some of which could produce large hail. Otherwise, pleasantly cooler temperatures are expected across West TX Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with highs generally in the 70s and 80s as surface flow retains an easterly component. Unsettled southwest flow aloft is also progged to persist through the second half of the week, which combined with the ongoing upslope low level flow will bring chances of showers and storms to most of the region each day Tuesday and beyond. Ensemble consensus generally indicates a fairly good chance of at least some measurable precipitation during the midweek period, though specific amounts and details on any severe weather potential remain quite murky at this lead time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude. There is a low chance for thunderstorms near CDS this afternoon and evening. The main hazards with any thunderstorm will be wind gusts up to 50 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the region on both Sunday and Monday. For Sunday, southwest winds will strengthen by late morning and be sustained around 20 to 30 mph during the afternoon, along with minimum RH values as low as 5 percent on the Caprock and over the western Rolling Plains. Off the Caprock, winds will still be relatively strong, but the presence of a dryline will result in higher humidity here, with minimum RH values generally above 25 percent. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire area Sunday, with the exception of Childress, Cottle, King, and Stonewall Counties where a Fire Danger Statement is in effect. On Monday, winds are expected to be even stronger with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The strongest winds are expected over the southern TX Panhandle, where fire weather conditions will likely become extremely critical for a few hours on Monday afternoon with RH values in the single digits. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire region on Monday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ021>044.