textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock Tuesday, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment.

- Critical fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week.

- Storm chances continue through early Friday, mainly off the Caprock, with drier and cooler weather expected for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The previous thinking in the short-term discussion below remains on track, but trends in high-resolution guidance have shown an increasing potential for the development of supercells this evening (00Z/7 PM CDT and beyond) across portions of the Rolling Plains. As the dryline begins to translate westward after 00Z, intensification of the low-level jet will occur atop a corridor of strengthening convergence along the retreating dryline. These mesoscale interactions would serve as the impetus for the initiation of surface-based supercells this evening, and if this comes to fruition, then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains into the night. Some of the recent forecast soundings have indicated inflow-layer storm-relative winds intensifying to near 35 kt amidst dewpoints in the middle 60s this evening, the latter of which are already present in the Rolling Plains per recent WTM data. Retreating drylines at night in the presence of low-end windy conditions, such as the case this evening, are worth keeping an eye on when it comes to the potential for tornadoes.

Sincavage

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Water vapor imagery late Monday evening highlights a belt of moist and unsettled southwest flow aloft in place over the West TX region, a pattern which will persist through the short term period as a compact mid/upper level low moves over the Four Corners. The dryline will continue to retreat westward through the rest of the overnight, and will position roughly from Denver City to Plainview to Memphis by sunrise. Overnight storms look unlikely, but we could still see an isolated cell or two develop over the southeastern Rolling Plains during the early morning hours as a modest low level jet focuses within a pocket of elevated instability. The dryline will mix eastward after daybreak Tuesday, especially on the Caprock where moisture will be quite shallow. Another warm and breezy to low end windy day will result west of the dryline as deep mixing taps into ~35kt flow at 700mb and up to 65kt at 500mb, which combined with the warm conditions will result in critical fire danger on the Caprock for areas which have not benefited from rainfall over the past week or so.

Despite the strengthening flow aloft, the dryline is expected to slow its eastward progression once it moves east of the Caprock Escarpment given deeper moisture in place there, with dewpoints likely to remain above 50F over most of the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle Tuesday afternoon. In general, it still appears the dryline circulation itself will be relatively weak Tuesday. However, convective temperatures will be easily within reach, and slightly better large scale forcing for ascent compared to Monday should result in a bit higher coverage of storms along and east of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Within the moist sector, forecast soundings depict MLCAPE values near or above 1500 J/kg, along with bulk shear magnitudes nearing 50kt. This will be sufficient for a few severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, although this should be a relatively early show with strong flow aloft kicking storms to our east by early evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Wednesday is expected to be a relatively quiet and warm day as the above-mentioned upper trough exits into the central plains states, with dry westerly surface flow pushing most appreciable near-surface moisture and associated storm chances to our east. That being said, a subset of guidance does keep the dryline barely over our eastern zones, so will maintain low storm chances over the eastern edge of the Rolling Plains through late Wednesday given uncertainty in the dryline positioning. Southwest flow aloft returns by Thursday as the next upper trough deepens over the Great Basin, which will bring enough near-surface moisture northward to result in mainly nocturnal storm chances Thursday night into early Friday courtesy of a strengthening low level jet. However, this period of southwest flow aloft and associated precipitation chances will be relatively short- lived given the progressive nature of the upper trough, which is progged to quickly shift eastward with the trough axis set to be over the Dakotas by early Saturday. This evolution will send a cold front southward through our area sometime in the late Friday to Saturday period, with good consensus among models indicating a drier and cooler period through at least the first half of the weekend. Return flow looks likely to reestablish Sunday and beyond with ensembles in decent agreement bringing low chances for showers and storms back to the region by early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds will continue to steadily veer towards the southwest and become strong this afternoon, with frequent gusts to 30-35 kt expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW, but VSBYs will remain VFR. Severe-caliber TSTMs may affect KCDS this afternoon and evening, with the PROB30 group being maintained with this TAF cycle. Expect localized reductions to CIGs and VSBYs should TSTMs impact KCDS. Winds will gradually diminish overnight into Wednesday morning, with VFR otherwise.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected across most of the Caprock on Tuesday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range, RFTI values of 3 to 5 appear likely over the southwestern TX Panhandle and western portions of the Caprock on Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are therefore expected in this area given the lack of recent beneficial rainfall compared to locations farther east. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM Tuesday for the SW TX Panhandle and western Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for areas farther east near the edge of the Caprock where slightly higher RH is expected in closer proximity to the dryline. Areas off the Caprock (especially the Rolling Plains) are expected to remain relatively humid east of the dryline, and fire weather concerns will be relatively low for these locations.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-027>030-033-034-039.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029.