textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Storms currently across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains are expected to clear out in the next couple of hours.

- Widespread chances for thunderstorms continue everyday through Friday.

- Slight cool down the rest of the week before a slight warm up over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging sitting across south- central CONUS with two upper troughs on each side, one across the Midwest and another parked over Nevada. The upper ridging will gradually push east as the upper trough across Nevada gets absorbed into northerly flow through the rest of the day. As that upper trough ejects northeastward, a secondary trough will expand across the Desert Southwest. Despite the lack of upper forcing below the ridging, thunderstorms continue to develop across the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains this morning. These storms have remained sub-severe, only producing moderate rainfall. Current radar imagery shows these storms are beginning to dissipate. After these storms dissipate, CAMs indicate we will see a short lull in thunderstorms this afternoon before another round of isolated thunderstorms move in from the south and expand across much of the forecast area this evening. Similar to the storms this morning, thunderstorms this evening are expected to be sub-severe, however periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. If a storm is able to park, localized flooding could be possible, however the major flooding is expected to be across NM. Evening thunderstorms are expected to prevail overnight as forcing is enhanced when the nocturnal LLJ kicks in. Timing and location of thunderstorms this evening and the progression overnight is uncertain with CAMs not handling the set up well, therefore kept the NBM widespread chance for thunderstorms, especially on the Caprock. Although there is plenty of moisture, lack of forcing could keep much of the region dry this evening.

Thunderstorm chances continue through the day Wednesday. With the region sitting between upper ridging to the east and an upper trough to the west, southerly flow aloft will continue to pump in subtropical moisture. Not much in terms of upper forcing, however we could see a very similar set up as this morning with thunderstorms developing along any lingering outflow boundaries from overnight thunderstorms. A passing upper shortwave will prolong thunderstorm chances through Wednesday evening, however most of this activity is expected across eastern NM and just inside the NM/TX border. Along with the thunderstorm activity this morning, low clouds have filled in across much of the region. This low cloud deck will keep temperatures cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s across much of the Caprock to upper 80s across souther Rolling Plains. The low cloud deck will linger through Wednesday bringing very similar temperatures with highs in the upper 70s across much of the Caprock to upper 80s to lower 90s off the Caprock. However, depending on when the clouds are able to burn off, I would not be surprised if temperatures did not reach the lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Daily precipitation chances and "cooler" temperatures continue through the long term forecast. Through the rest of the work week, our forecast area remains between the two upper systems. However, the upper trough across the Desert Southwest will gradually get absorbed into northerly flow through the day Friday as a secondary trough swings across the Pacific Northwest. Moist southerly flow aloft will shift to moist southwesterly flow. Multiple passing shortwaves and subtropical moisture continuing to pump in over the region, widespread chances for thunderstorms continue through the rest of the work week. Daily precipitation chances and cloud cover will keep cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 90s both Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, we will see an upper pattern change and a slight warm up in temperatures. Daily precipitation chances remain in the forecast, however are much less compared to this week. The upper ridging that was to the east of the forecast area will slightly shift south and expand back west across much of Texas and Mexico. Subtropical moisture will continue to fill into the region around the upper ridging, however flow aloft will shift to the northwest. In general, northwesterly flow aloft and plenty of moisture will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in NM before expanding southeast into our region. That is not the case with current models. Thunderstorm chances over the weekend are mostly across southern regions of the forecast area where models indicate a shortwave will pass. However, if northwesterly flow does fill in aloft, I would not rule out higher terrain thunderstorms from NM. With the upper ridging just clipping the forecast area, height and thickness increases will warm temperatures up to the 90s for much of the region over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A broken line of SHRA/TSRA was south of KLBB, slowing lifting north. Low confidence on how far north these storms reach, so went with a PROB30 for -TSRA at KLBB between 01-05z. East-southeasterly winds persist through the period. Additional MVFR ceilings may develop Wednesday morning, but confidence was too low to go broken MVFR with this update. Additional scattered storms are possible Wednesday afternoon/evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.