textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Windy and critical fire weather will continue through the early evening.

- A Pacific cold front will bring strong westerly winds and drier air across the Caprock Friday afternoon resulting in the return of critical fire danger. - A brief cooldown is expected this weekend before warm temperatures and increased fire danger return next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions are on track for the rest of this afternoon. Winds are overperforming compared to previous forecasted winds with West Texas Mesonets already measuring sustained winds between 30 to 35 mph over the northwestern portions of the CWA. Therefore, winds were increased using NBM90th through early evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued until 6 PM CST this evening. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through the evening as the surface pressure gradient weakens with the lee surface low translating to the southeast across the Central Plains. The overnight will be mild with cooler low temperatures compared to the previous couple of nights. Lows over our northwestern zones will reach as low as 20 degrees, however mid to high level clouds over the southern South Plains and much of the Rolling Plains will keep lows in the 30s.

Windy and fire weather conditions are not over yet as a similar synoptic set up as the past couple of days is expected Friday. A shortwave will translate over the Intermountain West Friday morning triggering the development of a surface lee side low over Colorado effectively tightening the pressure gradient. Breezy southerly winds will start the day Friday, however will quickly shift to the west and increase during the afternoon as a Pacific cold front pushes eastward through the region. NBM continues to underplay post-frontal wind speeds, therefore were increased using a combination of NBM75th and NBM90th through the afternoon hours. Models indicate the Pacific front will stall just off the Caprock sometime early evening resulting in the strongest winds being across the Caprock with wind speeds up to 35 to 40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph expected. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. Drier air will fill in following the front with RH values reaching as low as 12 percent. The combination of dry conditions and strong winds will bring critical fire danger to much of the region. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and portions of the Rolling Plains from early Friday afternoon through early evening. As for temperatures, WAA from southwest to westerly winds will keep highs above seasonal average in the 60s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The broad mid/upper level trough axis which has been in place over the western CONUS for the past several days will finally shift eastward beginning Saturday and settle over the Midwest by Sunday. This evolution will drive a cold front southward through the region on Saturday morning, which will in turn bring us a welcome break from our recent stretch of above-normal temperatures and critical fire danger. Highs on Saturday will only reach the mid to upper 50s, and brisk north winds should continue through most of the day before weakening by early Sunday as a ~1034mb surface high settles into the region. Relatively cool temperatures continue on Sunday, though highs will be a few degrees warmer compared to Saturday as winds regain more of a southerly component. A warming trend will then begin on Monday and continue through most of next week as fairly broad upper level ridging builds over Baja CA and adjacent portions of the eastern Pacific, with highs expected to reach back into the 70s and 80s by the middle of the week. Most guidance does indicate the potential for another period of breezy to perhaps windy conditions during the Tue-Wed timeframe as well given the presence of a few shortwave disturbances transiting along the top of the ridge. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions look likely to return by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong westerly winds are expected to continue this afternoon before gradually decreasing through the evening. Winds will shift to the northeast just before midnight before continuing to veer to the south and become breezy through the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Critical fire danger will continue through the rest of the afternoon with the Red Flag Warning remaining in effect until 7 PM CST today. Current surface observations are showing sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. We can also expect wind gusts up to 50 mph. Strong winds and dry conditions will return Friday. A lee surface low developing over CO will give way to breezy southerly winds during the morning hours. A Pacific cold front will translate eastward through the region beginning early afternoon before stalling just off the Caprock by early evening. Strong west to northwest winds will fill in across the Caprock following the front with speeds up of 35 to 40 mph and gusts of 55 to 60 mph are expected. RH values will recover up to 60 percent overnight before decreasing to as low as 12 percent during the afternoon as the dry air behind the front fills in. A red Flag warning has been issued for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and portions of the Rolling Plains from 11 AM until 7 PM Friday. Winds are expected to decrease by the evening as the Pacific front dissipates.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>038.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Friday for TXZ021>024- 027>031-033>037-039>042.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030- 033>036.

Wind Advisory from noon to 5 PM CST Friday for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041.