textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Near-record highs today will edge lower through Labor Day weekend.

- Some storms mainly on the Caprock today, before retreating to the western South Plains on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The eastern fringes of a monsoonal moisture plume was found overspreading much of the Caprock late this morning. Along with strong heating, sufficient low-level moisture, and minimal inhibition, the stage should be primed for another round of afternoon and evening storms, likely more scattered than isolated given good consensus from CAMs. Around 1000 J/kg CAPEs with similar DCAPEs should allow for a few downbursts with blowing dust. Storms will dwindle toward sunset before another round returns Friday afternoon, likely focusing farther west toward the TX-NM border as upper ridging expands west accompanying modest height rises. There are some CAMs that offset this modest subsidence and convect over much of the Caprock Friday afternoon, but for now NBM's silent PoPs were traded for 20 PoPs closer to the TX-NM border. High temps for Friday continue to shape up similar to today except off the Caprock where slightly higher dewpoints should keep highs a couple degrees lower. Lubbock and Childress are expected to get close to their record highs today of 101 and 106, respectively.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Although we lose the precip chances this weekend through the middle of next week, the only bit of good news is that the heat dome returning to the southern Great Plains this weekend won't be too formidable with H5 heights holding in the lower 5900s. Daily highs in the 90s on the Caprock with upper 90s/100s off the Caprock look on track before the upper high potentially shifts farther east by Wednesday or Thursday. Should this occur, we could expect monsoonal moisture to creep closer to us, especially by late week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Although confidence remains low, we have increased confidence since the last TAF issuance on the possibility of storms in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW this afternoon and evening. Storms that are able to develop and track into the terminal may cause periods of gusty winds and the potential for low visibilities. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-042>044.