textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Significantly above average temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Slight precipitation chances remain late Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Quiet conditions will persist this morning through tonight. Overhead ridging will flatten slightly through the day with flow becoming quasi-zonal by the evening. Surface pressure gradient will tighten slightly through the late morning and afternoon hours as a surface low develops in southeastern Colorado. This will result in south to southwesterly winds around 15 mph this afternoon. Winds will veer to the west after sunset as the axis of the surface trough pushes eastward. Winds will also decrease to around 10 mph after sunset. Expect highs to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon with overnight lows only dropping into the 40s area wide.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Slight ridging/zonal flow aloft along with generally west winds will allow for well above average temperatures to persist through mid-to- late week. A upper shortwave will trigger weak cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies on Monday and breezy westerly winds near 20 mph are expected over the far SW Panhandle and much of the South Plains. This will bring the warmest temperatures of the week with highs well into the 70s and even low 80s off the Caprock. Pockets of elevated fire weather concerns are possible, particularly where humidities remain lowest. Winds will slightly diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as the aforementioned low departs to the northeast. Temperatures will slightly cool, but remain well above average in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A low will become cutoff from the main upper flow pattern off the central California coast and track southward. Latest models take it much farther south than yesterday, with it not making its easterly turn until it reaches well into Baja. While it may or may not completely re-phase with the main flow by late Wednesday evening, southwesterly moisture advection looks to be deeper, particularly on the GFS and forcing downstream of its axis would also be stronger in this setup. This would lead to widespread rain across much of the area, potentially lasting all day Thursday. ECMWF is a bit faster and more progressive than GFS but both now show precipitation overspreading the area. NBM PoPs have again been retained as they have luckily not been overly aggressive given the uncertainty the past few days. However if the more optimistic pattern continues, these will likely increase. A much cooler airmass behind this system looks to be ushered in by next weekend and temperatures may finally return to near seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR with SSW winds becoming breezy toward noon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.