textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions remain expected this afternoon, with extremely critical fire weather conditions expected Monday.

- Isolated thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and in the eastern Rolling Plains Monday afternoon.

- A strong cold front will move through the region Tuesday, with cooler temperatures and daily storm chances to follow.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

High-impact fire weather is expected this afternoon and especially Monday, with the potential for dangerous growth and spread of wildfires Monday afternoon and evening. In the mid/upper-levels, an amplifying, positively-tilted trough was digging into the Great Basin, with a well-defined baroclinic leaf over northern NV. Farther south, the left-exit region of the subtropical jet streak was beginning to eclipse the southeastern portions of the CWA, evident by the corridor of banded cirrus/gravity waves advecting quickly towards the northeast. Large-scale forcing for ascent was modest over W TX this early afternoon given the superposition of the aforementioned synoptic features relative to the CWA, with the broadly cyclonic flow continuing to advect a stout elevated mixed layer over the region. The amplifying trough to the west will eject into the central Great Plains by Monday afternoon while becoming negatively-tilted, leading to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms (some severe) in the eastern Rolling Plains and a potentially dangerous fire weather episode, especially on the Caprock, Monday afternoon and evening. For details involving the fire weather risks today and Monday, please reference the Fire Weather section below.

At the surface, a deepening lee cyclone analyzed at 992 mb was located near DDC, with the meso-alpha-scale dryline extending southward into the eastern TX PH and along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment per recent METAR and mesonet data. Southwesterly winds were beginning to strengthen on the backside of the dryline, with winds remaining backed poleward across the eastern Rolling Plains where dewpoints in the middle-upper 60s area present. The dryline will continue to sharpen throughout the afternoon, with strong CINH intact across the moist sector. While flow along the dryline was becoming increasingly confluent, convergence was rather scant, with the exception of the far southeastern TX PH where winds observed by the Estelline WTM remained backed to the southeast. Intense heating was also underway, and the previous forecast(s) remain on track, with highs expected to peak in the middle-upper 90s on the Caprock and to near 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The potential for an isolated, severe thunderstorm this afternoon will remain confined to the far southeastern TX PH, with PoPs removed elsewhere across the Rolling Plains. While intense heating continues to remove the strong CINH (-316 J/kg observed by the 12Z RAOB from WFO AMA), the lack of convergence and southwesterly flow in the mid-levels will result in parcels becoming entrained by the dryline circulation. The only exception is the far southeastern TX PH, where weak CINH in the presence of localized convergence may result in the formation of an isolated storm after 21Z. However, should this occur, then the residence time for storm(s) within the CWA will be short-lived, although the strong-extreme thermal instability and moderate bulk shear near 45 kt would promote rapid development in the event initiation occurs. Therefore, the severe potential remains intact despite the narrow spatiotemporal window, with damaging downdraft gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to two inches in diameter possible.

The dryline will begin to translate westward by 18/00Z, with rapid moistening of the airmass expected as the dryline stalls near the NM state line by dawn Monday. Overnight lows were warmed from the NBM due to the brisk, southerly winds and related WAA inhibiting nocturnal cooling. Low-level stratus is also forecast to advect northward into portions of the CWA Monday morning, with overcast possible across the Rolling Plains before the low-level jet, at or around 40 kt, veers. WAA-induced showers and perhaps a storm or two will be possible across the southeastern Rolling Plains near and after sunrise Monday as the 700 mb trough arrives. Elevated showers and storms that do develop will race northeastward prior to 18Z Monday, and the severe weather risk should be limited during the morning hours. Strong, southwesterly winds are expected to evolve area-wide Monday in response to large-scale pressure falls generated by the negatively-tilting trough ejecting into the central Great Plains by the afternoon. Southwesterly winds between 20-35 mph, with gusts up to 45-50 mph, are forecast; and the strongest winds are forecast to occur across the northwestern South Plains and the far southwestern TX PH. A consideration was made for a Wind Advisory, but was withheld as the official forecast grids are on the cusp of advisory-level. High temperatures will still be hot Monday, but slightly cooler than today, owing to the geopotential height falls aloft; and some blowing dust will occur on the Caprock. Isolated storms, some severe, will be possible across the eastern zones Monday afternoon and evening, but with the best forcing for ascent displaced to the north of the CWA, attempts at initiation may fail entirely. PoPs were trimmed and confined to locales along and east of the HWY-83 corridor, with storm chances ending Monday evening.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A strong, convectively-reinforced cold front associated with the negatively-tilted trough ejecting into the central Great Plains is forecast to surge into the CWA very early Tuesday morning. A squall line/MCS is forecast to be ongoing along the front as it moves southward across OK, with the potential for storms to continue unzipping westward into the Rolling Plains as the cold front during the predawn hours Tuesday. Convectively-reinforced cold fronts have a tendency to propagate faster than what NWP guidance indicates, and as of now, the front is forecast to move into the far southern TX PH by 2 am CDT Tuesday morning. Adjustments to the frontal timing, as well as the PoPs in the Rolling Plains, may be required in later forecasts. Storms that develop along the cold front across the Rolling Plains will be elevated and pose a risk for damaging hail due to steep lapse rates and MUCAPE values near 3,000 J/kg.

Storm chances will end following the departure of the cold front to the south of the CWA, which should stall near the I-10 corridor by Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures, although still warm, are forecast Tuesday, with highs ranging from the lower 80s to the upper 80s from north-to-south across the CWA, respectively, with diminishing winds into the afternoon as a weak surface high settles into the region. Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to persist over the western U.S. and Great Plains by the middle and latter half of this week, with the quasi-stationary front forecast to drift poleward towards the CWA. The exact position of the front remains unclear with this prognostication, but with the CWA positioned beneath the right-entrance region to an amplified jet streak over the north-central Great Plains, daily chances for storms are forecast Wednesday and into next weekend as the mean troughing to the west will be slow to progress.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Winds will remain some what elevated and further increasing aftr 23Z between 20-25G35kts from the SW. Winds will decrease in intensity aftr 04z to 10-20kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This afternoon into Monday morning:

Critical fire weather conditions remain expected for the Caprock, and most of the far southeastern TX PH and Rolling Plains, this afternoon. The sharpening dryline will stall in a similar position to yesterday, or between the HWY-70 and HWY-83 corridors, with very dry southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph (gusting to 40 mph) across the Caprock into areas immediately west of the dryline. Winds will back towards the south-southeast to the east of the dryline, with similar wind speeds. Very deep mixing of the boundary-layer and hot surface temperatures in the middle-upper 90s on the Caprock to near 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains will result in very low RH values near 5 percent this afternoon. Fuels are becoming extremely dry, with localized extremely critical fire weather conditions expected across the far southwestern TX PH this afternoon, which is where the strongest winds will be present. The dryline will begin retreating towards the west after 7 PM CDT, with winds diminishing and backing southward as the dryline moves towards the NM state line. Excellent RH recovery is expected tonight as the dryline will stall near and along the NM state line by dawn Monday, with RH maxima above 80 percent for most of the forecast area. The far southwestern TX PH will be slightly drier tonight, but with RH above 40 percent.

Monday and Monday night:

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Caprock, the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, and most of the Rolling Plains Monday into Monday night. The potential will exist for dangerous growth and spread of wildfires, with an outbreak of wildfires possible. Winds will already be breezy by the mid-morning hours Monday, with the dryline expected to surge eastward quickly during the late morning hours and stall in the eastern Rolling Plains by the early afternoon. An intense upper-level storm system will be digging into the central Great Plains, which will drive the formation of a strong surface low near the Raton Mesa throughout the morning and afternoon. Sustained, southwesterly winds will increase to 20-35 mph, with gusts up to 45-50 mph; and the strongest winds will be on the Caprock. The combination of hot surface temperatures and very deep mixing of the boundary-layer on the backside of the dryline will garner RH values at or even below 5 percent for some locales amidst extremely dry fuels. Conditions will be more than favorable for life-threatening growth and spread rates of wildfires during the afternoon hours Monday, especially for areas along and west of the I-27 corridor and along and north of the HWY-114 corridor, which is where RFTIs 8 or greater are expected. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all of the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains, and will be in effect from 11 AM until 10 PM CDT Monday. A local-in-time extension of the Red Flag Warning may be necessary, but winds are forecast to diminish by 10 PM CDT before a strong cold front moves in from the north very early Tuesday morning. As of this writing, the cold front is forecast to arrive in the far southeastern TX PH by 2 AM CDT Tuesday. Winds will shift to the north immediately following the front, with wind speeds between 15-25 mph and localized gusts between 30-35 mph. It is possible that the front moves into the forecast area earlier than what this forecast indicates. RH will recover to above 50 percent area-wide following the passage of the cold front Tuesday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025- 027>031-033>037-039>043.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>037- 039>043.