textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the South Plains area late Saturday afternoon and evening, some of which may produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

- Daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue through at least midweek.

- Very hot this weekend, then slightly cooler Monday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Upper ridging which has been parked to our south for several days has finally begun to shift eastward, resulting in a gradual transition to more southwesterly flow aloft over our area through the rest of the weekend. Despite this, very hot temperatures will continue through both today and Sunday as surface troughing over the CO plains keeps relatively strong southwesterly surface flow in place over West TX. Highs will range from just below 100 to about 105 both days, with the hottest conditions off the Caprock. For both the rest of today and again on Sunday, robust diurnal mixing will result in a relatively dry boundary layer during the afternoon and early evening with dewpoints falling mainly into the 50s on the Caprock. Convective temperatures will be reached easily both afternoons resulting in potential for at least isolated thunderstorms basically anywhere over the forecast area after about 3 PM. Storm chances will continue mainly favoring areas on the Caprock during the evening hours as outflow collisions reinvigorate convective development, with some showers also likely to continue overnight like we have seen over the past several days. Midlevel moisture appears rather marginal today, so storm coverage will likely remain quite limited this afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture is still progged to arrive by Sunday, so current expectations are for slightly more widespread convection Sunday afternoon and evening compared to today, especially to the west of I- 27. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer and relatively high cloud bases, the strongest storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts up to about 70 mph both today and Sunday, with a lesser threat of large hail.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For Mon thru Wed of next week, the forecast area will remain caught in-between the sprawling upper ridge centered over the Ohio Valley and a large, quasi-stationary upper trough from the Rockies to the Pacific Coast. Lower heights over West Texas in this pattern should produce a modest cooling trend, more apparent on the Caprock, with highs in the lower 90s by Wed, than in the Rolling Plains, where highs will remain near 100. Daily rain chances should also continue, but may begin to shift west by midweek depending on where the ridging/troughing sets up exactly which will guide the mid-level moisture channel and disturbances embedded within. Looking farther out, a gradual drying and warming trend is expected late next week as upper ridging strengthens over TX, however, a weakness in the height field may remain across NM and WTX and prevent completely benign wx.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. -TSRA is possible at all three terminals after 20Z. However, confidence in timing and TSRA location remains uncertain therefore have left mention of TSRA out of the forecast for now, but as the afternoon continues there may be a need to add -TSRA to at least KLBB and KPVW. LLWS will be possible between 06Z-08Z at KCDS. Winds will remain elevated at all terminals through the prd. Expecting 10-15G25kts from the S-SW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.