textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Increased storm chances Thursday and Friday. The risk for severe storms remains low.

- "Cool" and humid conditions will continue through Friday. - Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the primary hazards with precipitation.

- Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The upper low currently over the Big Country has already begun to retrograde and will continue to do so through the rest of the early morning hours. An increase in convection is expected as the upper low retrograde with showers and thunderstorms beginning to move into our southeastern zones by early to mid morning. This is already evident on radar imagery. The upper low should be centered mostly over the Permian Basin by sunrise and is expected to remain there through the rest of Thursday with the FA being on the northern edge of the upper low. While the proximity of the upper low will favor storm development over the FA, overall lift will only exist up to a short distance from the low and will keep most precip chances across the southern half of the FA. As has been the case over the past several days, the overall threat for severe storms will be low, but a few gusts to 60 mph from stronger storms will be possible. As sounding profiles are saturated, heavy rainfall will be possible as will urban street flooding. The isolated to scattered nature of storms and a decent forward speed will keep the flooding threat localized and brief. Storm chances begin to dwindle by Friday afternoon as the upper low continues retrograding towards the Desert Southwest and brings deep layer moisture with it. High temps will remain on the cool side and remain in the 80s this afternoon and Friday and will be aided by a combination of cloud cover, rainfall, and east to southeast surface flow.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our luck with cooler weather will run out late weekend and early next week. The upper high that has been baking much of the Rockies and Northern Plains will drop southward and settle over the South Plains region by late Monday/Tuesday. This will bring highs back into the upper 90s/low 100s by mid week and likely last through at least the end of the week. The overhead high will also keep most precip chances at bay. The best chances for rainfall next week will be in the form of shallow diurnal convection aided mostly by surface moisture and weak boundaries.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Another round of morning stratus is likely at LBB, potentially falling to IFR at times, although MVFR appears more prevalent before resuming VFR toward noon. Stratus should avoid PVW and CDS, yet all sites stand to see some SHRA or brief TS in the area on/off through the day.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.