textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances return Friday and Friday night.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The final remnants of a squall line were found exiting Stonewall County at 10 PM ahead of a dryline and weak Pacific cold front. Aloft, a shortwave trough in WSW flow will kick across the TX-OK Panhandles before daybreak setting up deep westerly flow through Thursday. The cold front will fizzle by daybreak leaving the dryline to hang out from near Wichita Falls to Junction by midday. West of the dryline we'll be basking in breezy westerly winds and mild temps, but these winds will back southerly Thursday night in response to pressure falls/lee troughing focusing from eastern New Mexico into the high plains of Colorado. This will allow the dryline to retreat over all but our NW zones through the night while tugging muggier southerlies northward. Some low clouds may materialize Thursday night, but hopes for precip are too slim as this moisture will likely be too shallow at this point.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

An upper low currently over the Pacific Northwest will have shifted over the Black Hills by Friday afternoon allowing a surface low in eastern Colorado to shove east ahead of a healthy cold front. The dryline is expected to bisect the forecast area from SW-NE on Friday with richer gulf moisture pooling to its east. Some drizzle or light showers aren't out of the question Friday morning in the moist sector before destabilization increases through the afternoon under increasingly cyclonic SW flow in the mid and upper levels. Capping of the moist sector may keep things quiet until a cold front Friday dives south and forces parcels to finally convect. NBM's PoPs appear overly generous on the Caprock, so some massaging was performed to keep this mention more realistic and in step with the latest ensembles and mesoscale models. Following FROPA Friday night/early Saturday morning, PoPs wane and high temps should easily fall 15-20 degrees below Friday's readings followed by a gradual warm up for Sunday. There may be a few showers that sneak into our southwestern zones on Sunday afternoon near an advancing warm front, otherwise quiet weather looks to prevail.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy west to southwesterly winds are expected through the afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease through the evening hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.