textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Showers continue across areas on the Caprock with thunderstorm chances expected through the night. - Another round of storms expected Friday with the potential for heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.

- Warmer and quieter weekend before an upper pattern change brings cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Thunderstorms continue across areas on the Caprock. Current radar imagery also shows some isolated showers developing along an outflow that is about half way through the South Plains at the time of publication. These storms are very quick to develop and dissipate. Storms this evening have produced heavy rainfall, mainly across Parmer County. Showers to the south of the forecast area are pushing north into the South Plains, however look to be dissipating quickly. Those areas may only see some light rain before the storms die out. Current upper water vapor imagery shows an upper shortwave about to cross the border into southern NM. This upper shortwave is expected to track northeast, reaching our forecast area by early Friday morning. Upper forcing from the shortwave and southwesterly flow pumping in plenty of moisture, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across eastern NM before expanding into our forecast area. A secondary passing shortwave will keep thunderstorm chances through much of the day Friday. Very similar to the past couple of days, thunderstorms through Friday are expected to be sub-severe. The biggest threat however will be potential for periods of heavy rain fall that could lead to flash flooding with PWATs up to 1.25". Thunderstorm potential will come to an end late Friday night when upper ridging currently to the southeast of the forecast area expands westward, shifting flow aloft to the west, effectively cutting off upper moisture. A wide range of high temperatures is expected for Friday. Across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, where mostly cloudy skies are expected much of the day and the greatest chances for thunderstorms, temperatures are only expected to warm to the lower 70s. The southern Rolling Plains will see highs in the lower 90s where less clouds will allow more daytime heating.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The start of the long term forecast will begin with a more quiet and warmer weekend compared to the past few days. Over the weekend, the upper ridging parked to the south of the forecast area will gradually expand north across our region as an upper trough amplifies down the west coast. Subsidence below the ridging will keep the region mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across areas of the Rolling Plains Saturday evening, however confidence on this occurring is low. Height and thickness increases will warm temperatures back into the 80s to upper 90s across the region. An upper pattern change next week will bring a slight cool down and daily precipitation chances again. The aforementioned upper trough will swing onshore off the coast of Baja California and transition to a closed low across the Desert Southwest. This progression will once again shift southwesterly flow aloft, pumping in subtropical moisture. By mid- week, models are in disagreement with the progression of the upper low. ECMWF has a slower progression with the upper low stalling across the Desert Southwest before reaching the region by the end of the week. GFS has a faster track with the upper low crossing the Texas Panhandle by mid-week before deamplifying and moving away from the region by the end of the week. Precipitation chances later in the week will be dependent on the progression of the upper low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Scattered showers continue near and west of I-27 as of 11z, while a line of storms was located over eastern NM. Timing tools suggest this line reaches KLBB/KPVW around mid-morning (14-15z), then KCDS by early afternoon, although confidence is lower that far east. VFR conditions are favored, but some reductions to the flight categories may occur with the storms. Winds have a northerly component at the start of the period, but should swing around to SSW by late morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.