textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Chilly today and tonight with below normal temperatures across the region.

- Cold front Saturday will bring cooler temperatures through early next week.

- Precipitation chances possible Sunday through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over most of the CONUS over the next 24 hours as modest upper ridging off the SoCal coast only very slowly builds eastward. As a result, northwest flow aloft is set to continue over our area keeping the West TX region dry in the near term. A chilly early morning period is on the way in the wake of the cold front yesterday, though northeast breezes will generally subside and become calm by about sunrise as cool surface ridging builds overhead. Neutral midlevel height tendencies and suppressed sfc-500mb layer thicknesses will result in a relatively chilly day across the region with highs only peaking in the low to mid 50s despite a returning southerly to southwesterly surface flow component this afternoon. Clear and calm weather tonight will then result in another cool overnight period with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Quiet weather is expected to start off the long term package before possible active weather this weekend. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Thursday as a deamplifying upper ridge sits to the west of the region before shifting to zonal flow Friday as the ridge flattens out. Can expect seasonal normal temperatures Thursday and Friday and prevailing southerly surface winds. The first bout of active weather will be possible the latter half of Friday. A lee surface trough will develop over Colorado, tightening the pressure gradient effectively increasing winds through the afternoon. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will give way to efficient WAA resulting in shower and thunderstorm chances over southern and eastern portions of the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, most of the activity is expected to remain to the east of our region. All storm activity is expected to dissipate at or before midnight.

Models are in better agreement with the synoptic set up this weekend compared to previous forecasts. An upper low will move on shore over the Pacific Northwest Friday before quickly transitioning to an open trough as it translates over the Rockies. As this trough pushes east through central CONUS, a cold front is progged to push through the region Saturday morning. NBM overestimated temperatures following the front Saturday and were adjusted using the NBM25th with highs in the lower 50s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 60s over southern Rolling Plains. With prevailing northeast to easterly winds, cold air will continue to usher into the region through early next week and can expect to see highs in the 40s. The next round of active weather with the possibility for snow chances will be Sunday as another upper trough opens up over the Intermountain West and translates south over the Four Corners region. However, models differ with the progression of this upper trough. GFS indicates drier conditions as the trough shifts through central CONUS. ECMWF keeps widespread precipitation chances with the trough closing to a low and tracking right over the region. With the uncertainty in the upper pattern and still being a few days out, NBM 20-30 percent PoP for early next week will be kept, however can expect changes for future forecasts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Mostly light winds today all the while a VFR layer around 5k ft AGL clears out by late morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.