textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Strong, northerly winds will follow a cold front Thursday morning.

- All-time December temperature records are possible this Saturday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through Christmastime.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, an intense shortwave trough was ejecting into the northern Great Plains, with a pair of jetlets rounding its base that were objectively analyzed at 155 kt and 95 kt at 300 mb and 500 mb, respectively, by the 18/00Z UA charts. The leading edge of these jet streaks was nosing into the southern High Plains, and will eventually translate eastward, as the base of the shortwave trough pivots over the State of KS. The intensity of these jet streaks has also generated an impressive field of mountain waves that extend from the Cascade Mountains into the Chuska and Carrizo Mountains along the AZ/NM state line. Mid/upper-level flow remains convergent over W TX given the position of the CWA relative to the right-exit region of the jet incoming jet streak, with mid-level frontogenesis underway over the central Rocky Mountains and western High Plains. NVA is expected to continue to advect over the region throughout the next 24 hours, as the baroclinic leaf is already east of W TX and as the base of the trough remains north of the CWA.

At the surface, the synoptic cold front was rooted beneath the position of the mid-level cold front, or in central CO and southward into northern NM based on METAR data. A pair of surface troughs were also analyzed on METAR and WTM data, with one located along a line from HHF-CDS-SNK and the other located west of the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment. Leeward pressure falls have been on the order of 2-3 mb/3 hr per WTM data, with winds remaining veered to the southwest due to the nearby surface boundaries and the lee cyclones rotating into the northern Great Plains. The surface trough in the eastern Rolling Plains will transition into a dryline Thursday morning as large-scale, geostrophic deformation increases, with the dryline propagating eastward into central N TX. As this happens, the western-most surface trough will serve as the impetus to veer winds westward ahead of the southward-surging cold front currently located in the central Rocky Mountains.

Winds for Thursday were raised from the NBM and aligned with the NBM 90th percentile, which is above the statistical guidance, due to the expectation for steep pressure rises post-FROPA. A wind shift to the north will occur immediately behind the front, with northerly winds increasing to 20-30 mph by late morning and lasting into the late afternoon hours. Localized gusts to 40 mph can be expected, but higher gusts should fail to mix down to the surface due to the orographically-induced field of gravity waves becoming evanescent over W TX. In other words, the wave energy will rapidly dissipate and thus fail to mix the higher momentum flow down to the surface, especially as a residual-layer develops atop the post-frontal airmass. Highs temperatures were lowered a few degrees as well, but this adjustment is trivial relative to the winds, with highs ranging from the middle 50s across the far southern TX PH to the lower 60s in the southern South and Rolling Plains. Winds will diminish quickly by sunset while veering eastward, as the post-frontal surface high rotates into central N TX by Friday morning, with lows bottoming out in the lower-middle 30s area-wide.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with little change necessitated for this cycle other than some tweaks to the high temperatures this weekend. The synoptic-scale pattern over the Lower 48 will attenuate into a quasi-zonal state by Friday, as the shortwave trough pivoting over the Great Plains the day prior ejects into the Canadian Maritimes and an anticyclonic wave breaking event occurs over the northern Pacific Ocean. Still, the jet stream will remain amplified over the northern half of the U.S., and the magnitude of the u-wind field will maintain leeward pressure falls across the entire region. The northern periphery of a flattened, subtropical ridge, is also forecast to eclipse the southern Great Plains, which will maintain large-scale subsidence aloft. Breezy, southwesterly winds remain forecast Friday, with near-record high temperatures possible at LBB. Shallow boundary-layer heights will keep RH minima in check, at around 20 percent, but with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above seasonal norms, the fire weather potential may increase heading into Saturday.

Semi-progressive flow over southern Canada will induce some slight upward concavity to the synoptic-scale flow over the Lower 48 by Saturday, which is forecast to induce cyclogenesis near the Palmer Divide. The maintenance of the leeward pressure falls, in addition to the veered surface winds remaining brisk, all-time record high temperatures remain possible Saturday. The pre-frontal surface trough will arrive before sunset, which will transition winds towards the northwest; however, temperatures should peak right as this boundary arrives. Highs have lowered slightly from the previous assessments, but are still well within record territory for CDS and LBB. Please reference the table below for the temperature records and forecast for Friday and Saturday. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop area-wide Saturday. The next cold front will arrive by dusk Saturday, with much cooler temperatures, albeit about 10 degrees above seasonal norms, forecast Sunday. Another warm-up will follow into next week, as the subtropical ridge begins to amplify and expand poleward, with highs approaching 30 degrees above seasonal norms heading into Christmastime. ____________________________________________

Temperature records at LBB and CDS for Friday, December 19th; and Saturday, December 20th, 2025:

Lubbock Airport Childress Airport Forecast Record Forecast Record Fri 75 76 (1921) 71 75 (2013) Sat 81 80 (1921) 80 78 (2010) ____________________________________________

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Southwesterly winds will remain breezy overnight while continuing to transition towards the northwest by sunrise. A strong cold front will move through the region Thursday morning, with winds shifting to the north and increasing to 20 kt at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Gusts to 30 kt will be common through the afternoon before winds diminish by sunset Thursday while veering eastward. Significant cross winds on RWY 8/26 at KLBB are expected Thursday. VFR otherwise.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.