textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Westerly winds will ramp up today, with blowing dust and wind gusts up to 45 mph expected across most of the Caprock.

- Localized reductions in visibility may occur from blowing dust this afternoon.

- Dry weather will continue Sunday and into next week, along with a gradual warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, longwave troughing persists over the Lower 48, and is reinforced by several series of shortwave impulses and troughs translating through the large-scale waveguide. The base of the longwave trough was progressing into the southern Great Plains, while a southern-stream split in the trough meanders over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 06/00Z UA charts, particularly at and above 300 mb, observed a classic subgeostrophic flow pattern through the base of the longwave trough, with 300 mb jet streaks approaching 140 kt over the northern Rocky Mountains and farther east into the Middle TN River Valley. A well-defined, shortwave impulse was analyzed on water-vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest, and will continue to rapidly progress southeastward and emerge over W TX today. Geopotential height tendencies have, and will remain, slightly negative throughout the short-term period, as a high-latitude blocking pattern keeps the longwave trough intact.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was analyzed on WTM data near SNK, and was slowly rotating southeastward. The respective surface trough(s) branching out from the cyclone have since undergone meso-beta-scale frontogenesis, with a well-defined change in dewpoints in wake of what is now a cold front. Dewpoints were adjusted to match the current observations, and were lowered for Saturday due to the expectation of winds backing to the west in response to an inverted, post-frontal surface trough evolving beneath the arrival of the shortwave impulse aloft. As stated in the previous discussion, winds will near advisory-level Saturday; and winds were once again raised from the NBM, with an 80-percent weight applied from the NBM 90th percentile, which matches the upper-bounds of the recent statistical guidance. Sustained, westerly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, will be common, especially on the Caprock. Farther east and into the Rolling Plains, winds will diminish somewhat, but remain breezy while backing to the southwest after crossing the inverted surface trough.

Boundary-layer heights will be capped beneath 700 mb, or similar to what was observed by the 06/00Z RAOBs, as theta-e advection will increase with height from the west-northwesterly flow aloft this afternoon. Leeward pressure falls will steepen as cyclogenesis occurs beneath the emerging shortwave impulse, but with 700 mb flow remaining near 30 kt, surface winds are forecast to remain on the cusp of advisory threshold. Therefore, the issuance of a Wind Advisory has been withheld. It is possible that a couple of WTM sites on the Caprock observe gusts near 50 mph by peak mixing, as rotors generated by the mountain waves to the west may locally enhance downward momentum fluxes. High temperatures will also be about 15 degrees above seasonal norms, with cooler temperatures are expected Sunday, as the cP airmass in wake of the cold front modifies highs peaking in the middle-upper 60s. Winds will diminish near sunset while veering northwestward, as another meso-beta-scale cold front moves through the CWA ahead of the primary synoptic cold front that will arrive during the predawn hours Sunday and shift winds to the north.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The extended period remains on track, and no changes have been made to the forecast. Cool and dry conditions are forecast Sunday, with northerly winds becoming light beneath full insolation. As the cP airmass in wake of the cold front will be modifying, highs will range from the lower 50s in the far southern TX PH to the upper 50s in the southern South and Rolling Plains. NBM highs were left intact versus the cooler MOS due to the expectation for full insolation, and as the front will have been weakening upon its passage, thus resulting in lesser CAA. The longwave pattern will remain amplified through next week, with the semi-progressive flow shifting poleward as a subtropical ridge strengthens and moves eastward towards Baja California by the end of the week. A warming trend continues to be forecast through most of next week, with highs at least 10 degrees above seasonal norms Tuesday through Thursday before another cold front arrives by the end of next week.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

West winds will become fairly strong and gusty late Saturday morning and continuing to sunset, mainly at KLBB and KPVW. These winds could become strong and persistent enough to generate some blowing dust with a low to medium chance of some minor restrictions to visibility during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions and relatively light winds (at or below 12 kts) are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.