textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gusts possible this evening, mainly on the Caprock.

- Hot and dry through the weekend before the return of daily thunderstorm chances next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Lingering rain showers this morning have cleared the area. Current satellite imagery shows a stratus layer has filled in across the region and is expected to prevail the rest of today. Current water vapor imagery shows a low amplitude upper trough across the western coast at the same time as upper ridging dominates much of the eastern CONUS. Despite the lingering cloud cover through the day, we will see slightly warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday. The aforementioned upper ridging is expected to build west across the state of Texas. Slight height and thickness increases due to the ridge will warm temperatures a few degrees with highs in the 90s expected across much of the region. Some localized areas across central portions of the CWA may see highs in the upper 80s. Current surface observations show breezy southerly winds across the region. A lee surface trough across Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient this afternoon effectively shifting the surface flow to the southeast.

Slight convergence along the southern edge of the surface trough as it amplifies across New Mexico as well as southeasterly upslope flow will bring slight chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. CAMs have backed off slightly on storms for this evening compared to previous forecasts. However, we could still see isolated elevated storms develop over higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and expand across the TX/NM border into our CWA. With nothing in terms of upper forcing or upper level moisture, these storms are not expected to expand farther than western portions of the Caprock. Some models have scattered thunderstorms developing off the Caprock, however this forecast is not convinced this will happen. Although the better moisture will be off the Caprock with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s compared to lower 60s on the Caprock, the better forcing will be across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and western portions of the South Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with MUCAPE values up to 3500 J/kg. However, with weak shear values (< 20 kts) these thunderstorms will most likely be short-lived. These short-lived thunderstorms have potential for gusty outflows as well as downbursts with soundings indicating DCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph can be expected, however there is potential for gusts up to 60 to 65 mph, especially in the vicinity of any downbursts. Although soundings indicate strong CAPE values, short-lived thunderstorms hinder updraft development, therefore the potential for severe hail is low. However, some small hail cannot be ruled out.

Thunderstorm potential is expected to dwindle just before midnight. The rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Southeasterly surface flow will gradually shift to the southwest overnight as the lee surface trough pushes east across the Central Plains. Mostly cloudy skies will clear out early in the night. Light surface winds and mostly clear skies will drop lows to the mid 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains where clouds are expected to linger. The aforementioned upper ridging will dominate across much of the southern CONUS through Friday. Subsidence from the upper ridging will put an end to our daily storm chances beginning Friday. Slight height and thickness increases as well as southwesterly surface flow will continue the warming trend into Friday. Expected highs will be in the 90s for much of the region, however the southern Rolling Plains could see triple digit temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The long term forecast will begin with a hot and dry July 4th. Upper ridging will continue to dominate much of the southern CONUS. Height and thickness increases due to the upper ridging as well as southerly surface flow, the warming trend continues. July 4th will be a hot one with temperatures in the 90s on the Caprock and lower 100s off the Caprock. Saturday will start out with light to moderate southwesterly winds. The surface flow will gradually shift to the southeast through the afternoon. Southeasterly surface upslope flow will help with thunderstorms developing across higher terrain across northeastern New Mexico during the afternoon. However, this activity is expected to remain to the north and west of our CWA. Subsidence below the aforementioned upper ridging is expected to keep PoPs near zero. If thunderstorms are able to expand into the forecast area, they are not expected to reach farther than the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Therefore, you will not have to worry about potential storms if you have outdoor plans the evening of the 4th. Following the holiday, a complicated upper level pattern will bring daily thunderstorm chances and hot temperatures through the week. Models indicate upper ridging will remain stagnant across southwestern CONUS keeping northwesterly flow aloft. The upper ridging will keep the hot temperatures in the 90s to 100s through much of the week. Slight thunderstorm chances return during the afternoon and evening everyday next week. However, this is still a few days out, therefore can expect changes in future forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Ceilings are near MVFR at KLBB and KPVW at 18Z but we expect the cloud bases to gradually rise and VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at all sites. There's only a very slim chance of TSRA in the vicinity of any of the terminals through the evening. The low-level jet should be slightly weaker (around 35 kts) than previous nights but still will cause some LLWS, particularly at KLBB.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.