textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Record breaking high temperatures possible Monday.

- Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger Monday afternoon.

- Storm chances return each day next week beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The heat continues today and Monday as an upper high remains positioned over the FA. Temperatures are already in the mid/upper 90s across the FA and should continue increasing through the afternoon. Unlike Saturday evening, there will likely be no evening convection to help give a reprieve from the hot afternoon. The center of the upper high will be more directly overhead on Monday and will allow highs to be a degree or two warmer than those expected today. An Extreme Heat Warning is once again in effect for the Rolling Plains Monday while the Heat Advisory will be expanded to cover more areas on the Caprock. An embedded upper low over southern Canada is progged to push a cold front southward across the Plains late Monday afternoon and could reach our northern zones by late evening. While this would bring some potential for storm development, the front's arrival would be well after sunset and would have little to no upper level support for lift. The forecast will continue to remain dry for the time being.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

While hot temperatures are still expected through the next week, some slight relief does look to be on the horizon. The upper high will begin to slowly drift westward by mid week. This will allow thicknesses to decrease gradually through the week, with afternoon highs dropping to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. Another positive effect will be the potential for increased rain chances. The upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to push weak cold front southward across the Great Plains. Though weak, north to northwest upper flow will help the cold fronts push further south into the FA and may provide needed lift for convection. This would help to further cool temps pas what the NBM has forecast. Storm chances will continue to increase into next weekend as the upper high moves further west and will give diurnal convection across the mountains of New Mexico a fighting chance to move into the FA.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR will prevail across the region over the next 24 hours. Some low-end southwesterly LLWS may develop late tonight, but this potential is too marginal to mention in the TAF at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026- 031-032.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ029-030- 034>036-040-041.