textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Critical fire danger will continue through this. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM today.

- Critical fire danger continue through Monday. A Red Flag warning is in effect from noon Sunday until 8 PM CDT Sunday.

- Strong winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected Sunday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the Caprock from noon Sunday until 8 PM CDT Sunday. - Precipitation chances return the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Critical fire danger across the Caprock is still on par for today. An upper shortwave passed over the Rockies which triggered the development of a surface low over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Winds have begun to ramp up with current observations showing westerly winds up to 25 mph on the Caprock already. Breezy west to southwesterly winds are expected to continue through the afternoon. Low RH values in the single digits, temperatures warming to the mid 80s to upper 90s, and breezy winds will bring critical fire danger to the region, especially on the Caprock where the strongest winds are expected. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM today for areas on the Caprock. Winds will weaken after sunset as the pressure gradient loosens with the exit of the surface low. A backdoor cold front looks to push southwest part way through the region overnight before dissipating before sunrise Sunday. The far southeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains will see moderate northeasterly winds behind the front. Other portions of the region ahead of the front will see light southwesterly winds overnight. A low cloud deck will fill in over the areas behind the front with the potential for patchy fog. The low stratus layer is expected to clear out by Sunday morning. With clouds filling in behind the front, we will see a wide range of temperatures overnight with lows in the upper 40s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 60s over the southern Rolling Plains.

Sunday looks to be a similar set up to Saturday. A passing upper shortwave over the Rockies will trigger the development of a surface low, however this time over southeastern CO. Tightening of the pressure gradient from the surface low will give way to breezy to strong southwest winds during the afternoon. Wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest wind speeds expected over northwestern zones on the Caprock. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas along and west of the I-27 corridor from noon Sunday until 8 PM CDT Sunday. Dry conditions continue Sunday with RH values reaching as low as 9 percent during the afternoon hours. Windy and dry conditions as well as hot temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s, critical fire weather is expected. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far southern Texas Panhandle from noon until 8 PM CDT Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Windy conditions and fire weather is not over yet. The aforementioned surface low from Sunday will exit away from the region overnight through early Monday morning. Following the upper shortwave that resulted in the surface low on Sunday, an upper jet will move in overhead through much of the day Monday. As the jet mixes down to the surface, westerly winds will begin to ramp up late Monday morning and continue until around sunset with the strongest winds expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. With single digit RH values expected during the afternoon, critical fire danger will be possible across much of the CWA. Elevated fire danger will be possible Tuesday, especially over northern zones on the Caprock as moderate to breezy westerly winds are expected during the afternoon hours. Wednesday will be the start of a gradual cool down for the latter half of the week with the passage of multiple cold fronts. The first front is expected late Tuesday through early Wednesday morning with the second expected Friday. An upper level pattern change will also bring precipitation chances through the weekend. At the moment, precipitation chances start late Wednesday, however the greatest potential for storms looks to be Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Another weak cold front will make its way into the area early Sunday morning which will turn winds either to the north or become light and variable. Additional low CIGS and visbys will be likely at KCDS but is unclear at what level these lower flight categories will be. There exists a small chance of these CIGS and visbys making their way to KPVW and KLBB again but confidence is low in this occurrence.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Breezy westerly winds are expected to decrease after sunset and remain light overnight. A backdoor cold front will push part way through the region overnight and dissipate before sunrise. The far southeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains will see light to moderate northeasterly winds behind the front. Critical fire danger will return Sunday. The development of a surface low over southeastern CO will bring breezy to strong southwesterly winds Sunday. Wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected with the strongest winds across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. RH values will decrease as low as 9 percent during the afternoon hours. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far southern Texas Panhandle from noon SUnday until 8 PM CDT Sunday.

The surface low will exit the region overnight Sunday allowing the winds to decrease. Critical fire danger is expected to return Monday. An upper jet mixing to the surface will bring breezy westerly winds beginning late Monday morning and expected to prevail until sunset. RH values will decrease to single digits across the region through the afternoon hours. Elevate fire danger will be possible Tuesday with moderate to breezy winds and dry conditions.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>042.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041.