textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Dry and mild weather is expected this week, with cold fronts moving through the region Tuesday morning and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a subtropical ridge was deamplifying over the Four Corners, with a subtle shortwave trough on its upstream flank that was pivoting over Baja CA. Farther north, another shortwave trough was emerging over the northern Rocky Mountains, and will eject southeastward into the north-central Great Plains by solar noon Monday. Cirrostratus will overspread the CWA today as the basal trough translates through the dampened ridge, generating weak, leeward pressure falls as cyclogenesis occurs in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. Southwesterly winds will become breezy this afternoon, with speeds between 15-25 mph; and despite the cirrus shield aloft, temperatures will warm into the middle-upper 60s area-wide. Some locales in the Rolling Plains may breach 70 degrees. The gradient breeze will remain intact into the nighttime hours, with a synoptic cold front associated with the northern-stream shortwave trough digging into the central Great Plains expected to arrive in the far southern TX PH before midnight CST tonight. Winds will immediately switch to the north post-FROPA, with blustery conditions expected to develop in its wake due to post-frontal pressure rises of 6-7 mb/6 hr. Localized gusts may approach 40 mph along the lee of the Caprock Escarpment. The cold front will move to the south of the CWA during the predawn hours Tuesday, although CAA post-FROPA will have little effect on morning lows. Winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile from 15Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday, as the NBM was a bit underdone. Highs today will also remain well below record values.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Impactful weather is in short supply for the long term as both moisture and sufficient lift stay far away. Daybreak Tuesday opens with breezy northerly winds on the heels of an early-morning cold front underneath NW flow. Just a glancing blow of modified cP air will cool highs off into the lower 60s ahead of a stronger cold front by dawn on Wednesday. This latter front will precede a more vigorous shortwave trough in NNW flow that folds H5 heights back by 60 meters or so compared to Tuesday morning. At the very least we expect an uptick in mid-level clouds accompanying this wave, but prospects for enough top-down saturation for anything more are looking too modest at this time. After high temps closer to normal on Wednesday with some blustery north winds, the upper flow wanes considerably as a rex block (previously along the West Coast) breaks down and sends the remnants of its ridge our way along with a plume of anomalously mild air for the end of the week. High temps near or above 70 should become commonplace from Friday into the weekend as the axis of the ridge settles over W TX keeping dry conditions firmly intact.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will become breezy Monday afternoon at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Winds will then subside by sunset, with a transition to the north late in the TAF period following a cold front. Winds will become breezy once again near the end of this TAF cycle and beyond.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.