textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A stationary front will linger around the region today resulting in cooler temperatures east of the US-385 corridor and warmer temperatures to the west.

- A light freeze/frost is possible in the southwestern Texas Panhandle Thursday morning.

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend and next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Easterly winds will develop from east to west overnight behind a cold front. This will allow for further saturation in the lower levels resulting in low cloud cover overnight, particularly across the far SE Panhandle. Overcast higher cloud cover elsewhere will persist elsewhere moderating low temperatures in the 40s and 50s despite being post-frontal. An positively tilted upper trough tracking over the Rockies on Wednesday will lead to a surface low developing over eastern New Mexico. While it is difficult to determine how far east they will get, in general breezy westerly winds will occur on the Caprock by the afternoon. Highs however will remain cooler than today, ranging from the low 70s to the north to the low 80s southward. Much of the QPF downstream of the aforementioned trough will be over the southeast US and given its tilt, will be quite shallow as it makes its way near our area late Wednesday into early Thursday. Nonetheless, some slight precipitation chances have been retained over the far southern Panhandle for this time period.

All surface winds will switch out of the NE by early Thursday morning, and will gradually diminish through the overnight, remaining light and variable thereafter. Cooler temperatures will result, with highs across the area only reaching the mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Quiet conditions will continue into Thursday evening.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper ridge will approach from the west and surface winds will switch back to southwesterly Friday morning ushering in a warmer airmass. Highs will return to the upper 80s and low 90s. All models indicate a cutoff upper low tracking eastward across the Big Bend region late Friday into Saturday. Much of its associated moisture advection out ahead of it will be well to the south and east of the CWA (if its current track holds). However it should be close enough to potentially trigger some showers off the Caprock. A number of upper waves will move through Saturday, but again all moisture should stay off to the east. A broad upper ridge will build over the area Sunday into early next week, bringing warm and dry conditions and elevated to critical fire weather concerns. Highs could approach triple-digits by next Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cold front lingering around the region will bring low confidence to the forecast. At the moment, MVFR CIGS were making their way into the area from the northeast. These CIGS are expected to reach KPVW later this morning and possibly KLBB closer to sunrise. Winds are expected to remain easterly at all TAF sites through the morning. However, the cold front will move back east. There is a chance that the front remains west of all the TAF sites keeping winds out of the east all day. The other possibility is that the front moves farther eastward resulting in westerly winds at KLBB and KPVW for a brief period this afternoon. At the moment, the highest chances are that the front will remain to the west of the terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.