textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Thunderstorms possible through the overnight hours, some severe, especially off the Caprock.

- Hot and mainly dry this weekend with daily precipitation chances returning Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The cold front remains on track for today. Current surface observations show the front part way through our forecast area as a surface low has shifted over the southern CWA border. As the front progressed through the region, a low stratus layer has filled in behind it with current visible imagery showing the cloud deck across much of the region already. The cold front is expected to stall resulting in a wide range of high temperatures across the forecast area. Current temperatures of lower to mid 70s across the southwestern Texas Panhandle are expected to only warm the lower to mid 80s. Ahead of the front, temperatures have already reached upper 90s across the southern Rolling Plains are expected to reach triple digits again. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for our southeastern zones from 1 PM to 9 PM with temperatures reach 105 to 109 degrees.

Models indicate the cold front should exit the southern end of the forecast area later this afternoon to evening. It will depend on the progression of the aforementioned surface low. In the mean time, shower and thunderstorm chances return later this afternoon, mainly off the Caprock. With current water vapory imagery indicating upper ridging aloft, any forcing to aide in thunderstorm development will be surface base. Despite the little forcing, models indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the Caprock this evening as convective temperatures are reached and erode the capping inversion before expanding westward overnight. If thunderstorms are able to develop, severe thunderstorms will be possible with good instability values of 4000 to 5000 J/kg. Severe thunderstorms with the potential for up to golf ball size hail and strong wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible. With PWAT values up to around 2 inches, we could see periods of heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding. CAMs indicate the potential for an MCS to develop over portions of the southern Rolling Plains before exiting quickly to the east. The greatest potential for flooding will be where the MCS develops as well as along eastern zones of the CWA.

Shower and thunderstorm chances with severe potential is expected to prevail overnight into early Friday morning. Potential for storms dwindles late Friday morning with the rest of Friday afternoon expected to be quiet. Northeasterly winds through the morning will shift to the southeast by the afternoon. However, the cold front as well as lingering cloudy skies will keep cooler temperatures with expected highs in the 80s across much of the region with some localized areas seeing highs in the lower 90s. Despite the "cooler" temperatures, dewpoints will remain in the 60s, therefore can expect a humid Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The long term forecast will begin with the return of shower and thunderstorm chances Friday evening over northwestern zones of the forecast area. A lee surface trough will develop across portions of Colorado and New Mexico early in the day Friday. The surface trough is expected to amplify southward through NM with the southeastern edge clipping portions on the Caprock. CAMs are indicating isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across central to eastern NM with the trough before expanding eastward towards our CWA before cross the border over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and portions of the northern South Plains. These storms are not expected to last long with models clearing storms out around midnight. An isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible with soundings showing good instability with CAPE around 2500 J/kg. Any severe thunderstorms will have the potential for up to quarter size hail and strong winds up to 65 mph.

Once those storms clear the region, the rest of the weekend is expected to be dry. Upper ridging will prevail aloft over Saturday and Sunday. Height and thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures again. Triple digit temperatures are possible Sunday with some areas across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains seeing Heat Advisory level temperatures (105-110 degrees). We will see a slight cool down and the return of precipitation chances beginning Monday with a cold front progged to push southward through the region. Precipitation chances begin Monday afternoon following the front. Chances are expected everyday the rest of next week as multiple passing upper shortwaves prolong storm potential. At the moment, severe potential is low with mostly rain showers expected. However, that could change for future forecasts. Daily precipitation chances will keep high temperatures in the 90s through much of the week with the potential for the return of triple digit temperatures towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Conditions will steadily deteriorate through the rest of this evening with MVFR CIGs expected to fall to IFR in the 03z-05z timeframe with IFR continuing overnight. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase during the overnight hours, especially to the east of the terminals. It appears likely that KCDS will experience a period of thunder tonight, but confidence in convective impacts and timing at KLBB and KPVW is much lower. Convection is expected to dissipate before sunrise, but LIFR CIGs are expected at KLBB and KPVW on Friday morning before conditions improve around midday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.