textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms possible across the southern South Plains this afternoon.

- Heat Advisory in effect for the forecast area from 1 PM to 9 PM Wednesday.

- Cold front Thursday will bring cooler temperatures and thunderstorm chances.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A warmer Tuesday remains on track for today. On the upper levels, a broad upper trough sits over northeastern CONUS while an upper ridge sits across southwestern CONUS. With the forecast area sitting between the two upper disturbances, flow aloft remains from the northwest through the day. Thickness increases and southerly surface flow will warm high temperatures to the 90s across the region this afternoon. A lee surface trough across southern CO and northern NM will amplify through the afternoon with the southeastern boundary reaching parts of our western zones. CAMS have backed off quite a bit on storms for later this afternoon compared to previous forecasts. However, slight convergence along the boundary, there remains a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two, especially across the southern South Plains. NBM came in with very low PoPs, therefore slight chance was manually added across Southwestern zones on the Caprock. Any thunderstorms that develop are expected to remain sub-severe. However, a LLJ of 40-45 mph filling in overhead could sustain thunderstorms resulting in periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Although we may see a storm or two on the Caprock, most of the activity will remain north to northeast of our forecast area where there seems to be modest low-to- mid level convergence. The rest of the evening and overnight will be quiet with moderate to breezy southerly winds. Temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer compared to previous nights with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to mid 70s over the southern Rolling Plains.

Wednesday will be a HOT one. Upper flow aloft will remain from the northwest, however the upper ridging to the west will slightly expand across portions of the Texas Panhandle. Thickness increases from the upper ridging as well as breezy south to southwesterly surface flow will bring Heat Advisory temperatures (105-110 degrees) for Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and Rolling Plains from 1 PM until 9 PM Wednesday. Make sure to limit outdoor activities and drink plenty of water if you are required to be outside during this heat.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Luckily, the hot temperatures do not continue into Thursday for much of the region except for the southern Rolling Plains. On the upper levels, a trough will swing across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, pushing a cold front southward towards the forecast area. At the same time, a lee surface low will develop overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning before shifting southeast across the forecast area ahead of the front. Models seem to be in better agreement with the timing of the front compared to previous forecasts. CAMs and Global Models indicate the front will reach the northern border of our CWA by sunrise. The surface low ahead of the front will slow it down as it pushes through the forecast area. This will give us a large spread of high temperatures for Thursday. Highs across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle are expected to only reach the upper 80s while areas across the southern Rolling Plains will see Heat Advisory temperatures (105-110 degrees) again. A Heat Advisory will most likely be issued for areas off the Caprock in future forecasts. Storm chances return Thursday with decent moisture behind the front with PWATs up to 1.5 inches. However, subsidence from the persistent upper ridging may hinder any storm development. Therefore, confidence on any storms developing Thursday or Friday is low at the moment. Upper ridging in combination with south to southwesterly flow will bring around Heat Advisory level temperatures again over the weekend. However, we may see another cold front late Sunday through early Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ021>044.