textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 631 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Made a quick update to the grids to account for the development of patchy fog across the western South Plains - extending as far east as around the I-27 corridor. At this time it does not appear that fog will be dense but will continue to monitor trends.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Current satellite imagery shows the lingering clouds are beginning to clear out from west to east across the region. Temperatures will continue to decrease down to the 30s as skies are expected clear out by early morning and are expected to prevail through the rest of today. An upper trough will pass overhead, although will have no impact on conditions. Westerly surface winds through the afternoon and sunny skies will warm highs today to upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. A weak front is expected to push southward through the region later this afternoon. There is no impact to temperatures following the front, however light winds will veer to the north this evening through the overnight hours. Tonight will be another cold one with mostly clear skies and lows in the 30s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The main action for the long term forecast is a couple of fronts passing through the region through the latter half of the week. The aforementioned upper trough will depart to the southeast from our region Wednesday giving way to northwesterly to mostly zonal flow aloft as an upper high off the coast of SoCal gradually flattens through the end of the week. Unseasonably warm temperature will continue into Wednesday with highs in the 60s across the region as light northerly winds shift to the southwest during the afternoon in response to a lee surface trough developing over eastern CO. Concurrently, an upper trough will translate across the U.S./Canada border, pushing a cold front through the region overnight Wednesday through early Thursday, slightly cooling highs to the mid 50s to lower 60s. Sadly, these cooler temperatures are not expected to last long. Winds will quickly veer to the south early Friday morning and in combination with mostly clear skies will warm temperatures again to well above seasonal normal with the possibility for record breaking heat on Saturday with highs in the 80s for southern portions of the CWA. Models are in agreement with the passage of another cold front over the weekend, however are in disagreement with the timing. The GFS is quicker with the front passing through Saturday afternoon which could impact high temperatures Saturday. ECMWF is slower with the front reaching the far southern Texas Panhandle Saturday night. As the timing of the FROPA is uncertain at the moment, can expect changes for future forecast packages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. However, light, patchy fog has developed across the western South Plains as of 1130Z and there is a small chance that KPVW and/or KLBB will see a short period of MVFR vsby between 12Z and 15Z. Otherwise, modest southwest to west breezes will shift to the north this evening behind a weak front, becoming light and variable by early Wednesday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.