textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Thunderstorms, some severe, roll in from eastern New Mexico Wednesday evening.

- Thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening Thursday through Tuesday next week with highest chances Thursday and Friday.

- Triple digit temperatures expected everyday through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

After this evening's activity completely dissipates, there is not any convection expected until Wednesday evening. Although, guidance over the past few days has been abysmal so confidence is not high in a convective free Wednesday afternoon. The upper level ridge that has been parked over Far West Texas will make a slight jog to the southwest lowering heights during the day on Wednesday. Despite the lower heights, temperatures will rise well above seasonal averages again with upper 90s in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and lower 100s elsewhere. A quasi- stationary front is expected to hang out around the southern Texas Panhandle during the daytime on Wednesday. Upslope winds will favor convection developing off the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. West to northwest mid and upper level flow will favor this convection drifting into West Texas after 00Z on Wednesday evening. It is unknown if or how this boundary will play into the convection moving in from eastern New Mexico Wednesday evening. These storms moving east will be moving into a more favorable environment over the South Plains with stronger instability available. Deep layer shear will continue to be fairly weak with winds only on the order of 20-40kt from the mid to upper troposphere. A few storms could potentially produce marginally severe hail and severe winds upwards of 70mph given the amount of instability that will be available.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The hot temperatures are expected to continue through the long term forecast with possible Heat Advisory level temperatures by the weekend. Multiple passing upper shortwaves each afternoon will bring precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will gradually flatten through the end of the week shifting to mostly zonal flow aloft. Despite the flattening upper ridging, thickness increases and southerly surface flow each afternoon will continue to gradually increase temperatures through the rest of the week. If this trend continues, will most likely see at the least a Heat Advisory beginning Friday. Precipitation chances will return once again Thursday as an embedded upper shortwave passes across the Southern Plains. At the same time a weak boundary will push through the northern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary before expanding into northern portions of our region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary. Another passing embedded shortwave will bring thunderstorm chances again Friday evening. Over the weekend, flow aloft will shift to the southwest as the upper ridging finally pushes eastward over the Gulf states and an upper trough amplifies over the western CONUS. Despite the moist southwesterly upper flow, the weekend looks to remain dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The low cloud ceilings near KCDS have mostly cleared for the day. Showers remain in the vicinity of KCDS, however are expected to clear in the next couple of hours. VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the TAF period. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening near KLBB and KPVW. Models have thunderstorms dying before reaching either terminal, therefore have put VCTS in TAF. However, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms sustaining and impacting both terminals. Winds are expected to be light to moderate, however could see some rouge wind gusts from nearby thunderstorms as well as outflow boundaries. Thunderstorms are not expected near KCDS.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.