textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Warm and breezy Monday and Tuesday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the southeastern Rolling Plains tonight, with hail up to quarter size possible.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible each afternoon through Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A few isolated showers remain off the Caprock this evening, but we expect to see activity diminish just before midnight. Thereafter, quiet weather is expected to prevail for the FA as temperatures remain mild overnight in the 50s and 60s. Some hi-resolution guidance is hinting at the potential for low-stratus will creep far enough northward through daybreak, effecting our southern counties. If stratus is able to move in, we expect the cloud deck to diminish by mid-morning at the latest. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over southeastern CO will continue, with the surface low deepening and shifting slowly eastward throughout the day MOnday. This will work to tighten the pressure gradient across the region, with modest 3- hour pressure falls on the order of 2-3 mb supporting breezy to low end windy speeds by late morning. In addition, a 30+kt H7 wind maximum will overspread the region within broad southwesterly flow aloft, aiding in the potential for stronger winds as the boundary layer deepens. As a result, expect southwest winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Monday afternoon. NBM winds continue to pick up on the stronger wind speed potential and considering winds overperformed on Sunday, we are expecting a similar scenario Monday. Therefore, Monday wind speeds have been adjusted using a blend of NBM 90th percentile. As for temperatures Monday, highs will be similar to what we saw Sunday in the mid 80s to lower 90s thanks to the continuations of southerly surface flow promoting WAA into the region. Warm and breezy conditions combined with dryline fuels will lead to critical fire danger, mainly across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains where we expect to see the strongest 20 foot wind speeds and lowest RHs.

Turning towards Monday night a westward retreating dryline will position itself back on the Caprock, while perturbations out ahead of a shortwave over the western CONUS begin to ripple through the main flow and into the Panhandle regions. Depending on the amount of moisture return we see late Monday evening, there is a small window and chance for a few showers and thunderstorms across our most southern counties. Especially after midnight when we see increased jet dynamics as the H5 jet spreads overhead, bringing favorable jet dynamics for showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A series of shortwaves tracking into the region this week will allow for the unsettled weather pattern to favor near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Caprock regions, with the exception being Wednesday. By Tuesday morning the initial shortwave will become centered near the Four Corners region, allowing for southwest flow aloft to prevail overhead. At the surface, a lee-side low will continue to deepen across portions of northeastern NM and southeastern CO. This low is expected to slowly translate east, sharpening a dryline across the region as it mixes eastward Tuesday afternoon before retreating back on the Caprock Tuesday night as a Pacific front overtakes the area with the departing surface low to the east. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to transport subtropical moisture into the region which combined with daytime heating should result in moderate instability late Tuesday afternoon with MLCAPE values up to 1400 J/kg. In addition, an H5 jet streak overspreading the area will enhance deep layer shear, with bulk shear magnitudes around 30kts. As the shortwave departs east overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, we will quickly dry out with a relatively quiet day expected as shortwave ridging sets in. Despite this, NBM with this package wants to hold onto PoPs from Tuesday convection through mid-morning Wednesday. Although the confidence in that remains low at this time. This will be short-lived with ensembles and deterministic guidance bringing a stronger and more potent shortwave into region from the Intermountain West through the rest of the work-week into the weekend. As this trough dives southward, southwest flow aloft combined with the southerly component to the surface flow will both work to provide moisture transport into the region. Models are still a bit murky in regards to timing and coverage of PoPs, with Thursdays's potential being driven by perturbations out ahead of the parent trough moving through. By Friday the ECMWF wants to bring the base of the shortwave into the Four Corners while the GFS keeps its track further north. As a result, its hard to pin point details and timing of PoPs. Nonetheless, as the trough tracks east it will sharpen a dryline across the Rolling Plains. Favoring precipitation chances for areas east of the I-27 corridor. Not only will this late week system bring precipitation chances, but an associated FROPA will also dive southward bringing a much cooler airmass into the region through the weekend with highs this weekend expected in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR. Southwesterly winds will become blustery this afternoon, with gusts to 30 kt at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Significant cross winds on RWY 17/35 at KLBB can be expected. BLDU will be possible at KLBB and KPVW, but VSBYs will remain VFR. Winds will diminish after sunset at all terminals.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Despite recent rainfall this weekend, areas that did not see beneficial rainfall will see the return of elevated to critical fire conditions Monday afternoon. Areas who will primarily be effected are those across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains where ERCs remain in the 70th percentile. Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s by mid-afternoon while 20 foot winds increase to around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. In response, minimum RH values will drop into the lower to mid teens. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the aforementioned areas from 12 PM CDT Monday through 8 PM CDT Monday. While a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the south-central South Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Another day of elevated to critical fire danger looks possible Tuesday afternoon with similar temperatures and breezy southerly speeds expected to continue while the area continues to dry out. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 12 PM CDT Tuesday until 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>029.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>031-033>036-039-040.