textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Freezing temperatures tonight for the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains.

- Milder Sunday with an elevated fire danger.

- Cooler with light rain Monday, then very warm and breezy by mid-to-late week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Temperatures at noon were running 24-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday following a strong cold front charging toward the Texas Gulf Coast. Breezy NE winds are already trending lower as a surface high moves eastward through the TX Panhandle, but by this evening winds will have veered ESE on their way to southerly overnight. While not normally an impactful scenario, this subtle factor with wind speeds around 6-10 mph may be enough to keep overnight lows from getting too cold, particularly in the Freeze Warning area of our NW zones. Presence of very low dewpoints and the likelihood of stronger radiational cooling in the sandy soils in/around Muleshoe supports a freeze. NBM came in a bit milder than expected, so this was nudged lower.

Westerly winds aloft weaken tonight as ridging unfolds ahead of a subtropical impulse scheduled to arrive on Monday. Other than milder SW breezes on Sunday, highs should have little trouble recovering into the 70s under full sun. This sunshine by late afternoon should become dappled by high clouds preceding the aforementioned wave. Clouds will thicken Sunday night and Monday morning from both top- down saturation and some uptick in gulf moisture from light southeasterlies. Guidance is in good agreement in tracking the brunt of upper-level divergence and stronger ascent to our south on Monday, yet we still benefit from a prolonged window of weak and moist ascent within a PWAT axis pushing 1.1" at times. Instability overall is very modest, so light showers look in order with only outside chances for thunder. PoPs remain highest across our southern zones where a tenth of an inch or less is most likely. High temps should only peak in the 60s across our southern areas under thick clouds, whereas remaining areas see 70s from filtered sun.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Friday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Subsidence deepens Monday night on the heels of a shortwave trough. A progressive ridge passing overhead on Tuesday will make for the best weather all week as we see highs in the lower 80s with light winds, but the West Texas wind machine primes up for Wednesday as lee troughing bolsters breezier downslope winds and temperatures. Elevated-to-critical fire weather concerns pop up from Wednesday through Friday from 15-25 mph winds, highs in the 80s/90s, and minimum RHs in the single digits to low teens. A backdoor front either late Friday or Saturday could disrupt this theme, but guidance is split for now so confidence is low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR with breezy NE winds settling back later this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Occasionally breezy northeast winds will become lighter this afternoon before turning E-SE this evening. After a chilly night with lows in the 30s for many areas, highs will rebound into the 70s for Sunday. Combined with very dry air, an elevated fire danger is likely for many areas on Sunday afternoon as SW winds increase to 15 mph and minimum RHs fall to between 9 and 15 percent.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>023- 027>029.