textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Hot temperatures will continue through Saturday, before a modest cooling and wetter trend develops early next week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon for portions of the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains.

- The severe threat remains low although a few marginally severe wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Influence from the H5 upper level ridge and area of high pressure will continue across the West Texas/Panhandle regions through the short term period as the FA finds itself within the eastern periphery of the broadly stretched 595 dam upper high. Despite the modest decrease in geopotential heights, with weak shortwave troughing translating from the Rocky Mountains into the Southern Plains, persistent southerly flow will maintain WAA through the lower to mid-level aiding to an increase in thickness values across the region. As a result, we can expect to see afternoon highs a few degrees warmer today with 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 30C suggesting highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. NBM temperatures this afternoon were altered using a blend of NBM 50th to account for the warming trend given NBM seemed a bit too cool given how hot it got yesterday with not as strong WAA. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances rippling through the main flow along with upslope component to the wind by late afternoon will work to generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. However, steering flow remains fairly weak which leads to the question if storms can maintain themselves before reaching the area. If storms can make it into the area this evening, they will likely be high-based, given the evident dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings. Therefore a few strong the marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph cannot be ruled out. Tonight, expect quiet and mild conditions to continue, similar to previous nights with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Similar conditions are expected once again tomorrow as the upper level ridge begins to amplify as it begins to translate slowly eastward. In response, we will see a slight uptick in height values while thickness values remain stagnant across the region. Therefore, temperatures will likely be similar to Thursday in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Winds will remain out of the southwest through early afternoon thanks to lee troughing continuing across southeastern CO before backing once again out of the southeast by late afternoon/early evening as the surface low digs southward into portions of eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough will begin to dig through the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, given where this looks to set up most precipitation from this area of large scale ascent will remain to our north. However, moist upslope component to the wind will work with ripples within the north-northwest flow aloft to generate higher terrain thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico. Given better steering flow aloft, confidence is higher for Friday for thunderstorms to track into portions of the far southwestern-central Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The severe weather threat remains low, however given inverted-V profile soundings we cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe wind gust with stronger storm cores.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Through the extended forecast period we will begin to see the upper level high wobble itself eastward, centering itself over the Central/High Plains by early next week as the upper ridge amplifies itself over much of the central CONUS. Northwest flow aloft will begin to veer out of the north through the weekend, becoming more northeasterly to easterly by early to mid next week. Deterministic guidance diverges slightly on the progression of this upper high as it tracks east, with models like the ECMWF keeping the base of the high over the Caprock regions, suppressing most precipitation chances from the region. While models like the GFS keep the base of the high to our north allowing for chances for precipitation through much of the late weekend into early next week. Depending on where the upper level ridge and associated upper high sets up will be the main factor in determining the intensity and coverage and precipitation chances through the extended package. Although precipitation is uncertain, there is higher confidence in "cooler" temperatures returning to the Caprock regions as early as Sunday. Warm southwesterly flow from H7 to the surface will begin to back out of the southeast in response to the expanding surface high to our north shifting the surface trough into central NM. As a result, we will begin to see moist return flow set-up across the region which should not only increase moisture from the lower to mid-levels but also help limit afternoon highs from reaching the triple digits with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions and breezy south-southwest winds will persist through the period. Scattered high clouds may filter in from the northwest during the overnight hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.