textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue this week, with record highs possible on Wednesday.

- Storm chances return Wednesday night and Thursday (20-30% chance).

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An expansive 500mb ridge remains anchored over the central CONUS Sun evening, with 500mb heights around 592-593 dam over west Texas. Precipitable water (PWAT) values were anomalously high across both the northwest and southeast portions of the forecast area Sun evening, but instability values remained low (generally less than 1000 J/kg) and subsidence aloft kept the FA dry today. High temps Sunday declined a few degrees from Saturday, which itself was a few degrees cooler than Friday. Nevertheless, the observed highs today were still 5-10 degrees above normal.

The upper pattern and resultant weather conditions are expected to be very similar on Labor Day. Above normal temperatures, modest southerly winds (10-15 mph sustained), scattered diurnal cumulus (8- 10 kft AGL), and dry conditions are set to prevail once more. Highs will be in the mid 90s on the Caprock and low 100s off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An upper low currently evident in satellite imagery over the Pacific NW will be the driver of a potential mid-week front and associated precip chances. In advance of this front, the upper low emerging onto the northern Plains will act to flatten and confine the upper ridge to the southern Plains. Despite this, the ridge strengthens during the Tues-Wed timeframe, with 500mb values increasing to the 596-598 dam range. Such values are approaching the local max of the model climatology for this time of year, which lends support to the near-record to record highs delivered by the model blend. The most likely day for potential record heat is Wed (9/9), which happens to have cooler record highs than the surrounding days. The record highs for Wed in Lubbock and Childress are 99F and 102F, respectively, and the latest forecast values are 97F and 102F.

In response to that upper disturbance, a sfc low will track across the Canadian Prairie, while a sprawling cold front arcs well southward onto the central Plains by Wed. Latest guidance suggests the front will still mainly be north of our area on Wed, keeping the precip chances (20-30%) primarily across the TX Panhandle. By Thurs, the center of the upper ridge shifts towards the Four Corners, placing West Texas in NW flow aloft as models nudge the front south into our FA. The presence of this front and the slightly more favorable upper conditions support mentionable precip on Thurs (20- 30% chance). Despite the potential for precip, the model blend keeps the hot, above normal temps in place for Thurs (and into the weekend).

Late in the forecast period, attention turns to the evolution of yet another upper low over the Pacific NW. While there is potential for a noticeable cool down in west Texas early next week, considerable spread exists regarding the timing and strength of this system. As such, forecast confidence beyond Saturday is lower than usual for the Days 7-10 range (Sep 13-16). One way to quantify this uncertainty is by looking at the the NBM 25th-75th percentile spread. For the high temperatures, this spread is 10-15 degF (low 80s to mid 90s for Lubbock). This tells us that 50% of the individual members have high temps outside of this already broad range. It will be an intriguing period of the forecast to monitor and see how the ensemble guidance evolves over the next few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.