textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Elevated to critical fire danger is expected to continue through Tuesday as unseasonably warm weather persists.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, especially off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Zonal flow aloft is in place over much of the CONUS early this afternoon as upper level ridging remains centered off the Gulf coast and modest shortwave troughing moves over the PacNW region. At the surface, a broad trough will persist to our north over the next 24 hours resulting in a continuation of relatively breezy southwest winds and unseasonably warm temperatures. Tonight, robust south to southwesterly return flow will result in dewpoints near 50 degrees across much of the region on Monday morning, with mild lows mainly in the mid 50s expected. On Monday afternoon, the surface patten is expected to evolve into a pseudo dryline setup as a surface trough extends southwestward from a deepening low over KS/NE. A diffuse dryline is consequently expected to set up just east of I-27 Monday afternoon, with dry westerly flow strengthening over most of the Caprock. Exactly how far east this surface moisture gradient mixes during the day is uncertain which has implications on Monday's fire danger. Given highs in the 90s area-wide, critical fire danger will likely develop west of the dryline. At this point, consensus keeps the greatest fire danger west of a line from Paducah to Ralls to Brownfield, and a Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the southern Texas Panhandle and most of the Caprock for Monday.

One other point of interest for Monday's forecast is the slim potential for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop over the southern TX Panhandle and adjacent South Plains during the afternoon. Guidance indicates a bit of subtle shortwave energy moving overhead within the zonal flow aloft, which combined with respectable midlevel moisture may support some convective growth along the diffuse dryline. However, dryline confluence is progged to remain quite weak through the day, with a very dry sub-cloud layer unlikely to support much in the way of precipitation. Will therefore keep PoPs silent for the time being, but potential for an isolated weak storm or two on Monday is nonzero.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The synoptic pattern will not change significantly on Tuesday, although flow aloft will back to a more west-southwesterly direction allowing a bit more midlevel moisture to move overhead. The surface pattern will be initially be similar to Monday with strong early-day return flow boosting dewpoints into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday morning. Well to our north, a weakening cold front will move southward through the central plains states during the day, with surface troughing consequently expected to weaken out ahead of the front. This is likely to result in slightly weaker winds on Tuesday compared to Monday, although it does still appear likely that a diffuse dryline will once again develop Tuesday afternoon, this time to the east of the Caprock Escarpment. Similar to Monday, elevated to critical fire danger is possible within the dry westerlies behind the dryline given the expected very warm temperatures. Isolated thunderstorms look a bit more probable over the SE TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains by Tuesday evening as low level confluence increases near the intersection of the front and dryline, with a stronger storm or two not out of the question.

The upper air pattern will begin to amplify on Wednesday as deep troughing aloft moves onshore over the PacNW. Ahead of this feature, a quick-moving mid/upper level shortwave will transit over the Four Corners and into the Plains Wed-Thu. Models have trended faster with this wave which in turn shifts the favored locations for precip midweek farther to our east. Currently it appears most likely that a modified Pacific front will move through our area by early Wednesday afternoon which will dry out the low levels significantly. However, the mid and upper levels are progged to remain nearly saturated which combined with relatively strong forcing could result in a few showers or weak thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, but the bulk of this activity will likely remain to our east. Thursday into the weekend, the above-mentioned upper trough over the PacNW will move eastward over the Intermountain West and into the Great Lakes region. Quiet and still mild weather is expected locally on Thursday before thunderstorm chances return to eastern portions of our area Friday into Saturday as another potential dryline setup develops ahead of a stronger southward-moving cold front which arrives this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. Southwesterly winds will continue with speeds between 15-20G25kts through the evening, primarily at KCDS, with speeds up to 15kts at KLBB/KPVW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Southwest winds mainly in the 15 to 25 mph range will continue through this evening. Winds will turn more south-southwesterly tonight and remain relatively strong with a few gusts to 30 mph possible overnight. On Monday, a weak dryline is expected to set up over our region, although exactly where is uncertain. Critical fire weather conditions are possible west of the dryline where RH values will fall near 10 percent with southwest winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. Currently it appears that these critical fire weather conditions are most likely over most of the Caprock and the southern Texas Panhandle, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these areas from 12 PM until 9 PM. East of the dryline over the Rolling Plains, humidity is expected to remain high enough (around 25 percent or greater) to keep fire danger below critical levels.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for TXZ021>035-039-040.