textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- A warming trend will continue through the rest of this week, with record-breaking high temperatures likely on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

- Temperatures will soar into the 80s Wednesday and into the 90s Thursday and Friday, with some low 100s likely off the Caprock on Saturday.

- Above-normal temperatures and dry weather are expected to continue next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Southwest winds will remain on the breezy side through the rest of today as a weak surface trough transits eastward over KS/OK. Deep cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the CONUS will also continue to deamplify, which will in turn result in persistent midlevel height rises over the next 24 hours as expansive upper ridging currently over southern CA slowly builds eastward. Today will therefore mark the beginning of a multi-day warming trend with highs this afternoon recovering into the 70s, with 80s expected area-wide on Wednesday. The influence of the above- mentioned surface troughing will wane quickly tonight, with winds across the South Plains region expected to be pleasantly light beginning this evening. Given the pattern evolution, confidence is also high that tonight will begin a period of above-freezing low temperatures that will continue through the foreseeable future.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The dominant feature of the extended forecast will be a highly anomalous upper level ridge which will persist over the Desert SW through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Guidance is consistent in showing the ridge continuing to slowly build eastward during the late week period with 500mb heights near or just above 595dam, with is about three standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Unusually hot temperatures for this time of year will result, with highs forecast to be in the 90s across the region each day from Thursday through Saturday. The ridge is progged to center closest to our area during the first half of the weekend, with Saturday expected to be the hottest day of the week as a result with current forecast highs in the mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and low 100s off the Caprock. Given these temperatures (about 25 to 30 degrees above normal), new record highs are likely at both Lubbock and Childress on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Winds will also remain pleasantly light throughout this period given a weak midlevel wind field and diffuse surface pressure gradient, with fire weather concerns therefore remaining low despite the heat.

The ridge will finally deamplify and retreat southward beginning on Sunday, with most guidance indicating a cold front will pass through the region sometime during the second half of the weekend. This will bring a relatively modest cooldown for Monday, but overall the pattern will favor the continuation of above-normal temperatures and dry weather well into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will remain breezy through sunset and diminish thereafter. Light winds overnight will then transition to the south late Wednesday morning as a weak front moves southward across W TX.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.