textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast early this morning. - Additional heavy rain possible in the far southeastern Rolling Plains this evening through Thursday morning.

- Cooler and drier conditions late-week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A strong upper low over the Desert Southwest has swept up the remnants of Hurricane Polo and a large mid-level fetch of tropical moisture is currently making its way into our area as expected. Highest moisture parameters remain over the far southwestern Panhandle and north/western portions of the South Plains. However given recent CAMs which were more aggressive with swaths of higher precipitation farther east and the ground is already fairly saturated from this morning's rainfall over portions of the area, the Flood Watch has been expanded to include all areas along and west of I-27, including Lubbock. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches and swaths of 3 to 4+ inches are possible. Use caution if traveling and do not drive on flooded roadways. As the low occludes to the north, a dry slot will encompass much of the forecast area beginning Wednesday morning curtailing any additional rainfall chances across much of the area. The lone exception will be over the far southeastern Rolling Plains where the aforementioned front may still. Although much of the QPF looks to be east of the CWA, the Flood Watch for Stonewall County from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning has been retained.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The upper low will continue to track north and west with some potential for isolated-to-scattered precipitation on its backside during the day on Thursday and Friday. This however will not amount to much. A cold front will move through the area Thursday, with brisk northerly winds developing in its wake. As such, highs will be on the chilly side only reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. Weak ridging will gradually build into the weekend bringing drier and slightly warmer conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain has ended at LBB and PVW, though showers will persist at CDS for the next couple of hours. VFR is currently in place at all of the terminals, though a few periods of MVFR could occur at any of the terminals through mid-late morning. Additional convection is expected to develop this afternoon well off the Caprock, though it could potentially affect CDS. Confidence in a direct storm impact at CDS is not particularly high, but enough to include a Prob30 group. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds early this morning will veer southwesterly at the western terminals this afternoon (but remain southerly at CDS), before diminishing this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ021>023-027>029- 033>035-039>041.

Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for TXZ044.