textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Record breaking high temperatures possible Sunday and Monday.

- Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Storm chances return each day next week beginning Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Showers continue to dissipate across the region. These showers are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Current radar imagery shows the outflow that pushed southwest across the forecast area through the evening has mostly exited the region. Once the showers clear and the outflow exits to forecast area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Light winds will vary between south to southwest through the overnight hours. Lows remain unseasonably warm in the 70s across the region. Some localized areas may only reach as low as the lower 80s. Sunday will be another hot one. On the upper levels, ridging will remain over the forecast area as an upper trough dominates eastern CONUS. A secondary upper trough will swing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Thickness increases below the the ridging will increase temperatures a couple degrees compared to today. Temperatures on the Caprock will reach up to 106 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 106 up to 113 degrees. Tying the record daily high temperature will be possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The previous record for KLBB is 106 degrees set in 2024. The forecast high for Lubbock is 105 degrees. The previous record at KCDS is 111 degrees set in 2024 with a forecast high of 110 degrees. Due to the hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the eastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. At the same time, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours around 15 to 20 mph. With RH values reaching as low as 15 percent across the region and breezy winds, elevated fire conditions are expected across the entire forecast area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sadly, the hot temperatures are here to stay for the first part of the long term forecast. Not much change to the upper pattern for Monday with the upper ridging remaining over the region. Thickness increases will increase high temperatures a couple more degrees for Monday. Areas on the Caprock can expect high temperatures around 105 degrees. Areas off the Caprock can expect highs up to 113 degrees. Highs on Monday could possibly break the daily record high at both KLBB and KCDS. The upper ridging will begin to retreat southwest on Tuesday bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A couple embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances each late afternoon and evening everyday through the weekend. With the retreat of the upper ridging, we will see a cool down in high temperatures, however not by much as highs through the week remain forecasted in the upper 90s to triple digits. By the weekend, models indicate the upper ridging will begin to flatten and expand east back over the region possibly warming up temperatures to Heat Advisory (105-109 degrees) level again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening but chances of affecting a TAF site are low at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 031-032.