textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances will persist through this evening for the entire region but additional amounts will be light.

- A brief chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The shortwave trough axis will pass overhead late this afternoon bringing an end to widespread precipitation. Notable large scale subsidence will sweep in behind this short wave this evening. Some showers may continue to linger through the evening and overnight hours especially for areas off the caprock. However, these showers are expected to be very light. Steady southeasterly winds and moist conditions will allow low stratus to remain in place overnight and likely allow fog to develop. A couple more weaker short wave troughs will move through the broader southwesterly flow aloft on Saturday - one near the four corners and another across northeastern New Mexico. Measurable precipitation across the South Plains is unlikely from either of these short waves. Low stratus may end up hanging around for much of the day on Saturday. The western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle stand the best chance at seeing some clearing in the afternoon. If the low stratus does prove to be formidable, temperatures may struggle to reach the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Short wave ridging will move overhead from late Saturday through Sunday in advance of a deep trough on the west coast. Southerly moist flow will allow for a quick return of low stratus Saturday night into Sunday morning. Height falls will move overhead late in the day on Sunday as the trough tracks across the Rockies. Large scale ascent will spread overhead during this time and provide a quick shot of precipitation through Monday morning. Areas of lift will favor the extreme southern Texas Panhandle into northern portions of the South Plains before subsidence moves overhead later on Monday. A couple of cold fronts will also affect the area from this system. The first cold front will be during the day on Monday as a pacific cold front shifting breezy winds to the west and advecting drier air into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Poor flight conditions are likely to continue through the period. Steady light rain will end from southwest to northeast late afternoon through the evening, but drizzle may linger into Sat AM. IFR ceilings are likely at KPVW/KLBB through most of the period, potentially falling below 500 feet overnight into Sat morning. Dense fog is also a concern at these two sites. Included a tempo for 1 mile vis for now (10-14z), but may need to be more aggressive in future updates. Winds will generally be out of the southeast, but turn to southwest during the last few hours of the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.