textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms continue through early next week, with severe storms possible Friday.

- High temperatures warming into the 90s this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A compact and shearing mid-level low over the western OK Panhandle late this evening is set to drift to the Nebraska Sandhills by Thursday evening ahead of an upper ridge. Despite rising heights and broad subsidence aloft accompanying the ridge, there is a sharpening H7 thermal gradient along the northeast periphery of the ridge atop a decent southeasterly LLJ through Thursday morning. Along with modest elevated instability, these features look to support a few nocturnal showers and storms across our far N-NE counties that eventually fizzle by mid morning as the LLJ wanes.

By the afternoon, most guidance favors a surface ridge developing from the eastern TX Panhandle into the Rolling Plains which fosters weak upslope flow over much of the Caprock. Provided dewpoints don't mix out too aggressively Thursday afternoon, MLCAPEs of 900-1500 J/kg with minimal CIN would be within reach despite some subsidence/warming around H5 courtesy of the ridge. Opted to expand 20 PoPs over much of the forecast area Thursday afternoon before tapering overnight as the low levels stabilize and upper support becomes more hostile directly under the ridge axis.

Friday morning opens with weak height falls following the departing upper ridge. Stronger SW flow from 700 mb to 250 mb will also overspread W TX well ahead of an upper low pivoting from SOCAL to the Colorado Plateau. This distant low will keep pressure falls focused over eastern NM which keeps the dryline to our west. Oddly, a few CAMs mix out the moist sector considerably on the Caprock which plummets MLCAPEs to zero, but the larger ensemble signal supports favorable shear and instability east of the dryline supportive of afternoon and evening storms, some severe.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Saturday features deeper W-SW flow that helps mix the dryline off the Caprock and perhaps beyond our Rolling Plains by late afternoon resulting in a break of rain chances for most areas. This setup will fuel much warmer highs in the 90s. Conditional storm chances exist Saturday night along a retreating dryline, but this looks unlikely at the moment given shortwave ridging progged to arrive overnight. Winds throughout the column decline markedly for Sunday allowing the moist sector to linger in our area and support a broader potential for diurnally-driven storms. This theme carries through Wednesday as moisture becomes trapped under a developing ridge over W TX. High temps retreat from the 90s this weekend and into the 80s for early next week thanks to steady moistening of the column.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR prevails for the TAF period at all terminals, with light and variable winds. Ongoing TSTMs east of KLBB will remain east of the terminal as storms move off to the southeast. There is a slim chance for MVFR/IFR CIGs at KCDS near dawn, but confidence in low CIGs is low. Isolated TSTMs may develop along the I-27 corridor this afternoon and potentially affect KLBB and KPVW, but with limited coverage, any mention has been withheld in the TAFs.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.