textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Dry conditions through Friday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday evening through Tuesday. Locally heavy rain possible.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

An upper low currently centered over central California is amplifying a ridge over our area. This will bring above-average temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Generally light southeasterly winds will persist and quiet conditions will continue through the overnight hours. The aforementioned low will begin to split into two on Friday, the southern of which eventually becomes completely cut off over SoCal. Given its orientation and the more meridional component to the flow out ahead of it, the fetch of Pacific moisture looks to stay east of our area for the entirety of Friday. Partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s to near 80 are expected. With increase low-level flow, southerly winds may gust up to 30 mph during the afternoon hours on the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The cutoff low will become more compact and gradually track eastward on Saturday over southern AZ. Despite leading shortwaves out ahead of it, the moisture fetch will likely not reach the TX/NM border until Saturday evening, thus much of the area will remain dry for the day. Temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees cooler under mostly cloudy skies. As the low moves over the Four Corners region, showers and thunderstorms will finally begin to encompass most areas on the Caprock before continuing to track eastward into the evening. The upper low will track due east once it reaches Colorado and precipitation looks to overspread the entire area Monday along the associated surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from north to south on Tuesday as the low and front depart the region. The overall severe threat looks to be low, however locally heavy rainfall/flooding are possible, particularly with any training thunderstorms. Although forecast confidence is increasing, there remains uncertainty as to the exact timing and position of the heaviest rainfall. Stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Earlier chance of MVFR stratus at LBB and PVW toward daybreak is losing support as most models now keep this SW of LBB. As such, VFR should prevail with light southerly winds increasing to around 15 knots by midday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.