textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Colder with chances of snow Thursday morning, mainly across the far southwestern and south-central Texas Panhandle.

- Generally warmer and dry into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The short term portion of the forecast period now holds all of the upcoming winter weather event. The weather maker will primarily be the upper level trough digging southward over Utah toward the Four Corners by end of day. This trough is then progged to move eastward across northern New Mexico. However, this weakening system will fill/shear/dampen as it moves over the High Plains with weakening and relatively shallow lift associated with the system. As opposed to yesterday when it looked like subcloud moisture would initially be lacking, surface and upper air analyses are showing some low level moisture advection in the post-frontal air mass with advection and/or development of a stratus layer across the forecast area later this evening. Should this be the case subcloud moistening would not be required, thus increasing the odds of precipitation reaching the ground and extending the window of said precipitation. That said, there are still concerns with the weakening system. Looking at a series of time-height sections from around the region shows initial lift is mainly in a layer between 800 and 700 mb and is mostly isentropic in nature with a possible frontogentic component thrown in. This lift occurs in a warmer band of the column, far too warm for dendritic growth, rather favoring stratus continuation and possibly very light precip with any snowfall favoring small ice crystals and thus having a difficult time accumulating. This lift then dissipates while synoptic scale lift near the 600 to 500 mb layer picks up mainly across the far southwestern and south central Panhandle. There is some potential for a bit of dendritic growth, but mainly small crystals are the likely form of ice nuclei, and while the bulk of this lift is expected to be to the north of the area, locations along and north of a Morton to Plainview line have a decent shot of a dusting of snow to near 1/2 inch accumulation with the main period of time for accumulating snow being between midnight tonight and noon Thursday. Have made a few minor adjustments to the PoPs during the period, but the main story is keep the NBM's likely mention across northwestern counties, tapering downward to the east and south of that area. Finally, in general temperature profiles favor snowfall, but early in the period and on the eastern and southern edges of the precip field may initially have a bit of rain and/or sleet/freezing rain. Regarding temperatures, increasing cloud cover this evening and a slow egress of cloud cover Thursday support a narrow diurnal range with a slight tweak upward to tonight's lows and an adjustment downward for Thursday's highs.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The axis of an upper-level trough continues to sit overhead through Sunday before pushing off to the east early next week as an upper- level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Quiet weather is expected this weekend with slightly above average temperatures on Friday and Saturday as westerly surface flow returns to the area. A weak shortwave trough may traverse the area Sunday, bringing a weak cold front through the CWA Sunday morning and cooler high temperatures mainly in the 50's.

However, the cool down Sunday will be brief, as the upper-level ridge begins to move overhead, bringing above average temperatures to the area as we move into early next week aided by southerly surface winds and southwesterly 850mb winds. Temperatures could reach into the 70's by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Post-frontal north to northeast winds will continue mainly in a range from 10-15 kts this afternoon while VFR conditions persist. Stratus will move in from the north this evening, mainly in the MVFR category, although there is some possibility for intermittent, brief drops into IFR category around and after sunrise Thursday. An approaching upper level disturbance could bring some light precipitation between 06Z and 15Z, most likely in the form of snow. The best chance for said precipitation will be at KPVW, followed by KCDS. However, chances are too low to insert a mention in either TAF at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.