textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Hot conditions continue Thursday with isolated thunderstorms over the Rolling Plains.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon and evening, including potential for damaging winds and heavy rain.

- Drier and hotter next week with Heat Advisories possible off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A 597dm-ish upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the short term. The center of the ridge will make a slight jog to the west this afternoon after being centered directly overhead this morning. At the same time, a short wave trough will be moving around the ridge moving from the central Rockies onto the Central Plains. However, convective activity from this short wave will only extend southward into the northern Texas Panhandle. Therefore, any large scale ascent will be lacking this afternoon and evening. Low level winds will remain backed out of the southeast off the caprock with more southerly winds on the caprock. This will result in very weak low level convergence possibly extending to areas into the eastern South Plains. A narrow low level theta-e ridge will exist roughly centered around the US Highway 83 corridor early this afternoon shifting westward late afternoon through early evening. Surface dew points will mix out some this afternoon after morning dew points in the lower 70s off the caprock. Nonetheless, mixed layer instability values are progged to peak around 2000 J/kg within this low level theta-e axis. Any storms that develop will be similar to what was observed yesterday. Very little flow within the atmospheric column will bring brief pulse type thunderstorms. High cloud bases will also bring the potential for strong to marginally severe wind gusts in the vicinity of any convection.

As the upper ridge continues to move farther west, chances will increase in northwest flow convection for Friday. Higher chances for convection will exist on Friday afternoon and evening in close proximity to a surface trough that will be draped northeast to southwest from the central Texas Panhandle into southeastern New Mexico. The low level theta-e axis will follow close to the surface trough but with less instability than expected today. However, the increased low level convergence will result in higher chances of convection mostly for areas on the caprock into the southwestern Texas Panhandle. More pulse type convection can be expected with little flow in the atmosphere in close proximity to the upper level ridge. Lastly, very hot temperatures will not go anywhere with forecast apparent temperatures close to the 105 degree mark off the caprock.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday may see some additional convective development with lingering mid level moisture overhead. The upper level ridge will only make slight adjustments through the middle of next week keeping temperatures very warm across the FA although these forecast temperatures look to be short of records by several degrees. Convection will be kept at bay underneath the strength of the ridge.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will ramp up this afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph possible at all three TAF sites. Winds will calm this evening and remain light to moderate overnight through early Friday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KCDS later this afternoon and evening. Could see some strong rogue wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall with these storms. Location of thunderstorms is uncertain at the moment, therefore included TEMPO though the evening at KCDS.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-042>044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.