textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Cool temperatures and isolated to scattered storms are expected again today. The risk for severe storms is low, but locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Hotter and drier weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

WV imagery shows the upper low situated over southern Lynn county as of 10 PM and is nearly stationary. A few isolated storms are working northward from the Big Country into the southern Rolling Plains, but they are having a hard time being sustained due to a loss in surface heating, while overall coverage remains low due to dry air in the mid levels. Despite this, isolated storms will continue to be possible through the overnight hours as the upper low remains overhead. The risk for severe storms is very low.

An increase in storms is possible by early morning as an ongoing cluster of storms south and east of Abilene continue to push north and westward. The best chances for precip will be across the Rolling Plains. Timing and speed of these storms will determine how far westward the can push before dissipating due to cooler surface temps. The chance for precip drops sharply near sunset this evening though a few isolated rain showers will be possible. Highs in the low to mid 80s is expected once again today.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The upper low will continue retrograding through Sunday before being absorbed by the upper high. The aforementioned upper high will also push southward and settle over the FA by early next week. This will keep the best rain chances, as well as cooler temperatures, well west of the West Texas region through at least mid week. Models do show hints of the upper high slowly moving eastward by late next week and would help to cool temps slightly and bring rain chances back to the region. Highs by Wednesday are expected to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s and average near 100 area wide by Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The terminals are currently VFR, but satellite and nearby observations indicate pockets of MVFR cigs developing in the area. Any of the terminals could see periods of MVFR stratus through mid-late morning before VFR is firmly established. Expanding our view, a broad area of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms, was affecting parts of western North Texas through the Big Country, Concho Valley and Hill Country. This activity was moving northward, and if it maintains itself, could eventually affect the terminals by late morning or this afternoon. That said, guidance is mixed and not convincing that the convection will persist long enough to affect any of the terminals. Thus, we have left the TAFs void of any shower/storm mention. Southerly winds will become low-end breezy this afternoon before backing off this evening. Additional sub-VFR stratus is possible Saturday morning, but guidance is less optimistic about this possibility at the moment and have kept VFR in place tonight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.