textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Tuesday with breezy southerly winds.

- A strong storm system will bring an unsettled weather pattern beginning Tuesday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Another low end breezy day is expected today, though winds should be slightly lower than Sunday. Sunday's surface low will move over the Central to Northern Plains by sunrise, and another surface low will develop over Colorado by the evening as the upper low moves slowly south and east from the Pacific Northwest. There is a slight chance for isolated storms during the late evening after sunset as upper lift begins to increase as a theta-e axis develops across our western zones. Overall, storm coverage is expected to be low due to a lack of upper support and relatively weak instability, though moisture will be plentiful. While a few strong wind gusts will be possible, organized severe convection is not expected. Today will also be the one of the two hottest days in the forecast, the other being Tuesday, as height rises are expected.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The upper low will begin to move across the Great Basin Tuesday before being centered over the Four Corners by late Tuesday. Upper lift will begin to increase over the region as the upper low moves closer to the FA with more widespread convection developing by Tuesday afternoon. Models, both CAM and synoptic, vary with the location of convection as it is expected to be more of a line positioned mostly parallel to the upper flow. Many models seem to favor the southeastern Rolling Plains, but this will depend upon where the best upper lift is located. Convection will likely continue with an increase in coverage Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with convection being fed by a LLJ. This will also increase the possibility for heavy rainfall especially with the threat for training storms. No flood products are expected at this time due to still uncertainties with the overall forecast. Organized severe storms is not forecast, but a few stronger storms could produce severe wind gusts from wet microbursts.

The overall forecast beyond Wednesday continues to be a mess in regard to the future of the upper low. The GFS continues to phase the upper low with the main flow across the Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday with a strong cold front pushing through the FA behind the now open wave trough. The ECMWF attempts to phase the upper low but still isn't quite sold on the idea. It instead absorbs the upper low into a new low centered over Baja all while developing a blocking pattern. The ECMWF, however, is now more open to a strong cold front unlike previous runs. The GFS has begun to develop a blocking pattern as well over the western CONUS, though the upper low portion of the block is weaker than that of the ECMWF.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Southerly winds will persist around 10-15 kts with higher gusts possible this afternoon. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.