textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, primarily across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains.

- Trending hotter and drier this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Only very isolated light showers remain from this evening's convective activity, and these showers are confined mostly to our southern most row of counties. Synoptic models initialized these showers much stronger than they are while also increasing coverage by sunrise across our eastern counties. This appears to be overdone given current surface obs showing a somewhat divergent flow, albeit light, and satellite showing the center of the upper low being well to our south where the best lift is located. CAMs agree with this assessment as well and are much less bullish with precip. Precip chances will only diminish further this evening as the upper low moves off to our east with weak northerly upper flow taking its place. Some early morning stratus will be possible for at least the southern half of the FA around sunrise through mid morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Warmer and drier conditions are on the horizon for this weekend through next week. An upper trough that is currently sitting over the region will slowly move east and upper ridging will build to the west, shifting to northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the week but will shift to northerly flow aloft by the weekend as the ridge continues to build over NM. Subsidence following the departing upper trough will keep conditions dry Thursday however, models indicate some thunderstorms developing over in NM and tracking east into our region Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances remain for Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening but are a little uncertain. Any thunderstorms that develop Friday and Saturday will most likely be along a lingering outflow boundary. Increasing heights from the ridge will warm temperatures back into the 90s this weekend through next week with some areas possibly reaching triple digits. Storm chances return by Tuesday as an upper trough tracks east over the Desert Southwest towards our region, effectively pushing the ridge away and shifting to southwesterly flow aloft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

CIGs have dropped to IFR at LBB but have remained VFR at both PVW and CDS. An increase to at least MVFR is expected at LBB within the next few hours. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible at the terminals through the day, but no significant issues are expected outside of wind gusts up to 40 knots and brief heavy downpours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.