textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- There are daily chances for showers and storms this week, and the chances generally increase with westward extent. Locally heavy rainfall, sporadic severe wind gusts, and hail as large as quarters are all possible with the storms today.

- Cooler temperatures are expected through this week, followed by a warming trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A backdoor cold front was pushing southwest across the FA at noon/17z, with a sharp wind shift from southeasterly ahead of the front to northeasterly behind the front. Temps also varied from low 80s to low 90s ahead of the front, with upper 60s to upper 70s behind the front. This front currently shows up better in sfc obs and radar imagery than it does satellite imagery, but a bit north of the front across the southern TX Panhandle a stratus layer is evident.

Diurnal heating should lead to moderate instability across the Caprock (MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg), and the front interacting with this airmass should lead to scattered storms by mid- afternoon. The main challenge for the forecast today is the southwestward progression of the cold front. A slower progression translates to increased storm coverage through the evening, while a faster progression would shift the greatest precip coverage south of our FA. With some models showing a faster progression, placed the highest PoPs southwest of Lubbock (40-50%, compared to 20-40% across the rest of the Caprock). Precip coverage will be greatest across our area between 2-8 PM, with diminishing coverage into the late evening. In terms of storm hazards, precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to be around 1.3", which is above normal (about 80th-85th percentile), and combined with around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE will support sporadic severe wind gusts. Forecast hodographs continue to exhibit a relatively straight, elongated appearance, which could also support isolated hail larger than quarters. This thinking is reflected in the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, which has much of the Caprock and western Rolling Plains in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for both wind and hail. The other concern today is locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding, as the forecast hodographs also suggest slow storm motions (less than 10 kts). HREF members depict isolated pockets of 2-3" of rain through this evening, which seems reasonable given the PWAT values and slow storm motions.

On Tues, the upper high gradually shifts east, becoming centered over east TX, while the upper low continues to meander over NV. Southerly flow aloft will keep above normal PWATs in place locally, while moisture increases will be more notable across NM where values PWAT values are currently less than 1" (and forecast to approach 1.25" on Tues). While a weak mid-level disturbance is set to work its way northward into NM tomorrow, forcing across our FA looks less inspiring, and this is reflected by the latest CAMs which depict only isolated precip coverage across most of the area during the day Tues. As such, lowered the PoPs rather aggressively for the daytime hours on Tues to just a 20-40% chance in most locations (highest on the Caprock). Expect mostly cloudy skies through the day, and cooler temps (highs near 80 on the Caprock, mid/upper 80s off the Caprock).

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

During the latter half of the work week, the mid-level disturbance over NM will gradually lift northeast, with additional embedded waves traversing the southwest flow regime to our west/north. This should result in precip chances spreading eastward compared to Tues, but will still be highest over the NW FA compared to the eastern Rolling Plains. For the Wed AM - Sat AM period, NBM members still depict a meaningful chance (60%) of 2" of rain in the far SW TX Panhandle (decreasing to 20-30% chance of 2" along I-27). Further east, the rainfall prospects are much less optimistic, with just a 50% chance of exceeding 0.25" of rain across the eastern Rolling Plains (between Wed AM - Sat AM). While isolated severe storms can't be ruled out, overall the threat appears low owing to weak wind shear and lower cloud bases reducing the downdraft strength. Skies remain mostly cloudy through Friday, with high temps varying from the mid/upper 70s on the Caprock to near 90 in the eastern Rolling Plains.

Late weekend into early next week, guidance favors the upper ridge axis shifting back west over the region, with 500 mb heights around 588-590 dam. While not as anomalous as some of the other recent upper ridges we've experienced, this will still support a warming trend back to above normal temps with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s on the Caprock and mid-90s off the Caprock.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A cold front was currently moving through the area early Monday afternoon shifting winds to the northeast and becoming breezy. Wind speeds are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon. MVFR CIGS at KCDS will likely persist for a few more hours before returning to VFR. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop west of KLBB and KPVW later this afternoon possibly affecting each of these TAF sites. Thunderstorm activity will persist through at least the early evening hours. Low CIGS may again develop Tuesday morning after sunrise with highest chances at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.