textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Sub-freezing overnight lows will allow for hazardous travel conditions Wednesday morning as wet surfaces refreeze.

- Temperatures warming into the 40s and lower 50s for mid-to- late week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Despite thick high clouds blanketing the entire forecast area at 11 AM, temperatures were remarkably 15-30 degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to the frigid surface high having exited to the Upper Texas Coast. Milder westerly breezes behind the high will continue for the remainder of the afternoon followed by high clouds clearing from W-E as a weak shortwave trough departs in WNW flow. Light westerly winds will turn more northerly by sunset with the arrival of a weak surface high, but by daybreak Wednesday this high will already be packing for the Concho Valley. Thicknesses climb nicely for Wednesday as winds throughout much of the column back more westerly and advect milder air our way. Even with full sun and gentle downslope flow, the lingering snowpack will keep highs below normal for the sixth consecutive day with mid-to-upper 40s on tap.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Quiet weather consumes the extended forecast package with the main message being the potential for another cold spell this weekend. To start the extended the FA will find itself under the influence of west-northwest flow aloft as a pair of upper lows over the NE-CONUS wobbles eastward, while simultaneously an upper level ridge builds across W-CONUS. As a result of this synoptic pattern, the forecast remains pretty quiet and dry through next week, other than a series of fronts impacting the region Thursday and then again Saturday.

By Thursday morning, the eastward most low will track east, while the westward most low dives southward, becoming an open shortwave that rounds the base of the upper low. As this happens, the trailing front associated with this system will dive southward into the region by Thursday morning. Winds will quickly shift out of the north behind the front, increasing speeds to around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH as heights become tightly packed. Although most guidance is in agreement that this front will arrive at some point Thursday morning, we are expected to warm several degrees from Wednesday as the cooler airmass remains to our north despite the northerly shift in winds. This will be due to the surface high remaining to our northeast as a surface low tracks through the Southern Plains, setting up a blocking scenario of the cooler airmass into our region. Regardless, we will remain near seasonal standards in the 40s and lower 50s Thursday as northerly winds will influence a cooler regime. Expect similar temperatures and conditions into Friday as we remain under a similar set-up. The surface low will shift eastward by Friday night, allowing the surface high to expand southward. This in combination with another shortwave digging into the Upper Midwest/North Atlantic region will work to swing a secondary front into our area Saturday. Models are a bit all over the place in regards to the timing of this FROPA, with the GFS suggesting a slower FROPA while the ECMWF has the front through the area by as early as midnight Saturday. This has lead to a low confidence in the temperature forecast for Saturday. For what is is worth, NBM seems to be picking up on ensembles quicker timing with forecasted highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Aligning well with the cooler MOS guidance this morning, which suggests highs on Saturday in the upper 20s and 30s, although this seems a bit overdone at this time. At this time, given run to run difference, will opt for no change to the forecast until we see models in better agreement. This cold spell will be short-lived with downslope winds returning by late Saturday as a lee trough develops to our north. Thereafter, ridging will work to build back in through next week with temperatures warming back above normal in the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR with light winds. Just an outside chance exists for FZFG at any of the terminals early Wednesday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.