textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible off the caprock late Thursday and again late on Friday.

- Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock.

- Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The weather pattern has returned to more typical early spring weather with a restoration of increased fire weather conditions which will continue through much of the remainder of the week. A positively tilted trough axis will finally move overhead tonight with weak short wave ridging on Thursday. Today and tomorrow afternoon will see extreme boundary layer mixing up to approximately 600mb. However, winds through this layer will not be entirely strong with values on the order of up to 25kt or so. For today, winds will become breezy behind the dryline due to an increase in the surface pressure gradient. The extreme mixing will also bring very dry air aloft down to the surface with forecast surface dew points close to or in the single digits. On Thursday, a deepening upper trough in the Intermountain West will result in stronger surface cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Surface winds across West Texas will respond by increasing out of the southwest. The downsloping winds will also contribute to very warm temperatures on the order of 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages for today and Thursday afternoons.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

As the aforementioned upper level trough progresses across the Rockies, low level moisture will return to the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. A strong low level jet and warm advection will also develop in response to this upper trough. Models do show weak isentropic ascent late Thursday into early Friday but the return moisture is expected to be very shallow. Areas off the caprock and especially the southern Rolling Plains will see the best chances of any light rain showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Elevated parcels would have a significant amount of instability to take advantage of if enough moisture is present. On Friday, the dryline will quickly mix eastward with a surface cyclone moving from the Central Plains into the Midwest with the upper trough taking a similar path. Unlike Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, we will see an increase in winds aloft as this upper trough progresses eastward. Boundary layer mixing heights will not change much for Friday but stronger winds in the boundary layer will bring stronger surface winds. Temperatures for Friday are currently forecast to be a few degrees shy of record values. All of this will be followed by a very strong cold front Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Surface winds may approach advisory level speeds during this time period as a 1025mb surface ridge spills into the Plains. Much cooler temperatures will follow this front into at least early next week with temperatures below seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds will decrease just after sunset and remain light overnight. Winds are expected to pick back up Thursday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042.