textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Critical fire danger continues today with breezy and very warm conditions.

- Strong north winds tonight behind a potent cold front, then dry and cool weather for the weekend.

- Freezing temperatures are likely early Sunday morning over the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Thicker plumes of high clouds were serving to curb southwesterly wind gusts in many areas as of noon, but this story was changing west of a dryline moving off the Caprock allowing deeper mixing in drier air. Farther north meanwhile, a cold front was running a few hours ahead of schedule across the northern TX Panhandle. This front is now on pace to reach our panhandle counties no later than 9 PM before exiting our southernmost zones around midnight. Robust CAA will fuel impressive pressure rises on the order 13-16 mb in 3-hours which is not represented well by NBM's winds. The winds of the HRRR and CONSMOS look more in sync for this pattern, so this resulted in a large expansion of the Wind Advisory and mention of blowing dust.

As the cold front reaches the stalled dryline near or east of Highway 83 tonight, there remains a window for thunderstorms mainly over the far southern Rolling Plains. Any storms here should quickly become undercut thereby limiting the threat for severe weather.

Strong northerly winds will have dialed much lower by daybreak Saturday as a cool surface high spills south, yet breezy NE winds and low relative humidity values in the lower teens could result in some marginal fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After a somewhat chilly start to Sunday morning, we will see winds return to the south as a surface lee trough develops. Winds will be on the low side of breezy. Winds will decrease by Sunday evening as an upper ridge begins to move over the FA. Models then show a weakness developing in the upper ridge Monday afternoon and put the FA on the tail end of convection that stretches as far south as the Rio Grande Valley. While some convection may be possible, coverage is expected to be isolated at best due to much of the FA being under week upper lift due to more influence from the ridge rather than the shortwave trough. Convection and the embedded shortwave trough will push to our east by early Tuesday with the upper ridge rebuilding over the region with relatively quiet conditions dominating Tuesday and Wednesday. The broad upper low across the Pacific Northwest will amplify late Wednesday into Thursday and will help to kick the upper ridge to the eastern CONUS. Lee surface troughing is progged to develop ahead of the upper low. Models disagree with the amount of amplification of the main upper low, the GFS being more aggressive than the ECMWF. The GFS also brings a fast moving negatively tilted embedded shortwave trough across the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains by late Thursday. This could bring a potential for both windy conditions and severe dryline convection. Confidence is currently low but warrants watching.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR outside of any BLDU tonight following FROPA. Breezy WSW winds this afternoon will decline after sunset before a strong cold front arrives between 02Z-04Z. Northerly winds of 30+ knots are likely for a few hours, especially at LBB, with some BLDU along the front reducing visbys to MVFR. Strong winds then scale back toward daybreak.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Gusty W-SW winds of 20 to 25 mph will continue overspreading the Caprock behind a dryline this afternoon. Thick high clouds at times will curb stronger wind gusts, but RHs of 10 to 15 percent will still keep fire concerns at critical levels through this evening. Any wildfires or lingering hot spots will be subjected a strong northerly wind shift from 9 PM to midnight with gusts at times reaching 50 to 55 mph. Winds will draw lower before daybreak but remain breezy through Saturday afternoon. Although highs will be much cooler for Saturday, very dry air with RHs falling into the lower teens could result in sporadic fire weather concerns.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Gusty W-SW winds of 20 to 25 mph will continue overspreading the Caprock behind a dryline this afternoon. Thick high clouds at times will curb stronger wind gusts, but RHs of 10 to 15 percent will still keep fire concerns at critical levels through this evening. Any wildfires or lingering hot spots will be subjected a strong northerly wind shift from 9 PM to midnight with gusts at times reaching 50 to 55 mph. Winds will draw lower before daybreak but remain breezy through Saturday afternoon. Although highs will be much cooler for Saturday, very dry air with RHs falling into the lower teens could result in sporadic fire weather concerns.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037- 039>042.

Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ021>036.

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for TXZ021>023-027>029.