textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- A cold front will blast through early this morning bringing much cooler temperatures and storm chances, some severe.

- Hot and dry conditions expected everyday beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cooler and windy Sunday is on track for today. Surface observations indicate a cold front currently sits across central Kansas. The front is expected to blast through the Texas Panhandle through the overnight and early morning hours reaching the CWA before sunrise. Breezy north to northeasterly winds will fill in across the region beginning late morning following the front. Wind speeds up to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph are are expected with the strongest winds possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains. Winds will reach peak around noon before gradually decreasing through the rest of the day. CAA behind the front and mostly cloudy skies through the day will cool temperatures significantly compared to Saturday. Highs in the lower 60s are expected over the far southern Texas Panhandle up to lower 80s over the southern Rolling Plains.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday morning due to frontal forcing and low to mid-level post-frontal moisture. Storm chances will start off over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle before expanding across the Rolling Plains through the afternoon with the addition of upper forcing from a passing shortwave. PoPs will decrease north to south through the evening and are expected to clear the area after sunset. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with MUCAPE values up to 3400 J/kg. However, soundings indicate strong effective shear (>55 knots) behind the front, therefore can expect any severe thunderstorms to be elevated. We could see large hail and strong wind gusts with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Once the storms clear the CWA, the rest of the night will be quiet. Lows will be in the lower 40s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to the upper 50s over the southeastern Rolling Plains where clouds are expected to linger through the early morning hours inhibiting radiational cooling.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

After a cool and stormy Sunday, the rest of the week will be dry and hot. Upper ridging will build over the western CONUS and deamplify as it slowly pushes eastward through the week. Surface winds will shift to the south early Monday. Southerly surface flow and sunny skies will aide in warming temperatures to the low 80s across the region Monday. Tuesday is when the real heat begins with as height and thickness increases due to the upper ridging as well as south to southwesterly surface flow, highs are expected to climb to the 90s. These gross temperatures are expected everyday the rest of the week and possibly into the weekend. Subsidence from the upper ridging will keep conditions dry. Moderate to breezy south to southwesterly winds will also be possible each afternoon beginning Tuesday. With the hot, windy, and dry conditions, elevated to critical fire danger will be possible for much of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at KCDS from early morning through afternoon. IFR/MVFR CIGs are likely and winds may be gusty and erratic within any storms. Storm chances will be lesser at KPVW and KLBB. However, IFR and/or lower MVFR CIGs should prevail at these sites through around midnight. Winds at all sites will be breezy out of the NE during the daytime hours, possibly gusting to 30 kts at times.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.