textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- A light dusting of snow possible across the southwestern Texas Panhandle Friday as cooler conditions arrive.

- Cooler and dry this weekend, warming back into the 60s early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Windy conditions have developed across the Caprock regions this morning, and are expected to increase in speeds through the early afternoon as tightly packed heights with the ejecting shortwave move through. In addition to a deep surface low shifting into the South Plains in response to the shifting system, tightening the pressure gradient across the area. Over the last few hours, we have seen pressure gradient increased on the order of 3mb, which has resulted in speeds of 20 to 35 MPH, with gusts up to 45 MPH being recorded by WTM sites across the region. As a result, areas of patchy blowing dust will be possible, primarily across the Caprock, where we will find the highest wind speeds being recorded. A wind advisory is in effect until 4PM Thursday for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Despite windy westerly wind speeds and clear skies, temperatures will in fact be cooler from what we experienced yesterday, thanks to heights and thickness values decreasing from yesterday thanks to the upper level trough, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.

Water vapor imagery late this morning analyzes the secondary upper level trough over southern Nevada, where it is expected to transit eastward into portions of the Four Corners region by late this evening. Therefore flow aloft will continue out of the southwest, which will aid in subtropical moisture return in portions of the region via the H5 jet. The upper level trough looks to become closed as it tracks into eastern NM and into the northern Texas Panhandle overnight into Friday morning. Although moisture looks to be associated in the mid to upper levels with this system, forecast soundings depict a very dry sub-cloud layer, which will likely limit any precipitation across our area. As a result, any meaningful precipitation reaching the surface will be dependent on sufficient top-down moistening, which is not supported very well by model soundings. As it stands, much of the precipitation across our area will arrive on the backside of the low as it becomes vertically stacked over the Panhandle. Due to this, will opt to maintain NBM slight chance to chance PoPs across our northwestern zones. Similar to the previous forecast, hi-resolution and CAM guidance continues to hint at the potential for precipitation developing along the approaching frontal boundary as it moves through early Friday afternoon. Compared to previous model outputs, the front looks to move through earlier, entering our northern zones just before or around noon Friday. Winds behind the front look to pick up quite a bit, which could ultimately speed up frontal timing as well. Therefore, precipitation types remain a bit tricky, although the current thinking looks to be a light dusting of snowfall possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle while areas south of this could see a wintry mix or cold rain showers. Regardless, overall precipitation looks limited at this point with only light accumulations, if any, expected at this time. As for highs on Friday, a wide range of temperatures is expected given the FROPA tracking in through the afternoon. Behind the front expect highs in the 40s and 50s, while out ahead of the front temperatures will climb into the upper 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Unlike the short term forecast package, the long term remain quiet. The upper level trough will shift to the northeast by Saturday, northerly winds at the surface and aloft will help keep the cooler airmass in place with highs expected in the 40s to lower 50s, despite clear skies. Thereafter, flow aloft will become zonal as a cutoff low develops over Baja Mexico. This system does not look to do much for the area at this time, as it remains south of the FA while tracking east into the Coastal Plains. As a result, shortwave ridging will begin to build on the eastern side of the low which will aid in the start of a subtle warm-up across the region with highs back in the 60s by the start of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Strong winds will dominate much of the TAF forecast. Winds will subside within the next hour or two with the onset of sunset. A cold front will slowly move into the KCDS area shifting light winds to the east but is not expected to reach KPVW or KLBB. Breezy southwest to west winds are expected to return Friday afternoon to KLBB and KPVW before another stronger cold front moves through late Friday afternoon. Winds will turn to the north at all TAF sites and become strong with sustained speeds around 22-25kt. An upper level storm system moving to the north of the region will bring areas of snow and low CIGS to the Texas Panhandle. It is not certain if the low CIGS will reach into any terminal late Friday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.