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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- A critical fire danger is expected this afternoon, and Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible this afternoon, and again Sunday and Monday afternoon, in the Rolling Plains.

- Isolated storms will be possible during the predawn hours Monday across the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains, with more storm chances throughout next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a broad, positively-tilted trough was pivoting across the western U.S., with a quasi-zonal 250 mb jet streak analyzed at nearly 100 kt translating over northern Mexico and into central TX. Moist, isentropic ascent was scant over the CWA, with predominantly large-scale subsidence along the northern edge of the subtropical jet streak as the positively-tilted trough lags behind. Mid-level flow was weak, with 30 kt and 10 kt of flow sampled by the 12Z RAOBs from WFOs MAF and OUN, respectively, which matches current satellite estimates. The broad troughing to the west is expected to amplify as a series of intense shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest dig southeastward, with a closed low forecast to develop over the Great Basin late tonight. The amplification of the mean troughing over the Intermountain West will also induce a net increase in concavity of the southern-stream jetlet and result in a phasing of the leading shortwave trough ejecting into the central Great Plains by Sunday afternoon.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was located near GUY, with the dryline extending southward into the Rolling Plains between the HWY-72 and HWY-83 corridors. Winds were southwest behind the dryline while transitioning towards the south across the moist sector, with winds expected to remain slightly breezy throughout the rest of the day and into tonight. The dryline will remain stalled in the eastern Rolling Plains until sunset. Intense dry-bulbing was underway, with temperatures currently in the middle 90s across the CWA despite the well-defined gradient in vertical mixing. Critical fire weather conditions remain in store for this afternoon across most of the CWA. Please reference the Fire Weather discussion below for more details. Otherwise, highs will breach 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains while peaking in the upper 90s on the Caprock.

Isolated thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible across the eastern Rolling Plains. The dryline continues to sharpen, with dewpoints in the lower 60s present across the eastern zones and falling into the upper 30s near the HWY-70 and HWY-86 junction per recent WTM data. WTM data indicates a localized area of convergence near these locales, with confluence along the dryline continuing to sharpen as surface winds strengthen. Storm-relative winds are weak throughout the cloud-bearing layer; however, modest effective shear magnitudes near 30 kt would support some organization of updrafts amidst large thermal instability between 2,500-3,000 J/kg and steep, mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 deg C/km. High-based storms would pose a risk for damaging gusts in excess of 60 mph due to the classic Inverted-V boundary-layer profiles and water-loaded cores, in addition to large hail up to two inches in diameter. Coverage will be limited to one or two storms at best. Storm chances will diminish after sunset, with the dryline expected to translate westward tonight. Southerly winds will remain slightly breezy amidst substantial moisture return, with humid and warm conditions expected area-wide by Sunday morning.

By Sunday morning, the positively-tilted trough will be digging into the Great Basin, with the leading shortwave trough ejecting across the central Great Plains by the afternoon hours. The geopotential height falls will generate a moderate isallobaric response at the surface, with a 994-996 mb lee cyclone forecast to deepen near the Raton Mesa while remaining nearly stalled. The dryline will once again propagate into the Rolling Plains and stall between the HWY-72 and HWY-83 corridors, with an expectation for southwesterly winds to increase to 20-25 mph across the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains. Gusts up to 35 mph will be common, particularly on the Caprock, Sunday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains Sunday. Please reference the Fire Weather section below for additional details. The potential for isolated storms, some severe, will return to the eastern Rolling Plains during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday as the dryline sharpens beneath slight improvements to large-scale forcing for ascent compared to Saturday. A reservoir of large instability will be maintained, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/kg across the moist sector amidst strong CINH and surface temperatures rising into the middle 90s across the Rolling Plains.

While the triple point will be displaced into central KS, localized areas of low-level convergence may result in the formation of one or two supercells capable of producing damaging downdrafts and very large hail, potentially in excess of two inches in diameter. This scenario is conditional, and it is possible that the eastern zones are bereft of storms Sunday afternoon. However, storms that initiate will become severe quickly, with right-moving storm motion vectors near 20 kt should storms be able to propagate. The potential for storms will end after sunset, with the dryline once again retreating westward and resulting in rapid moisture return area-wide as surface winds back towards the south while remaining slightly breezy.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The base of the amplifying trough, accompanied by a well-defined closed low, is forecast to emerge over the Four Corners region late Sunday night into Monday morning. Rapid moisture return associated with an intensifying low-level jet to 45-50 kt as the dryline sloshes westward will saturate the decoupled boundary-layer, with low-level stratus forecast to develop over portions of the CWA. Meanwhile, the 700 mb trough is forecast to pivot into W TX during the predawn hours Monday, which may generate some elevated convection rooted above the low-level stratus deck. The coverage of elevated storms remains unclear, as does the risk for severe-caliber hail, but the intensity of the WAA within the low-levels bolstered enough confidence to delineate slight chance PoPs along a line from Denver City to Memphis early Monday morning. It appears that the best potential for elevated rain showers and/or storms will be across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Any elevated convection that develops will race off to the northeast of the CWA after sunrise Monday.

Low-end windy conditions are forecast to develop across most of the CWA Monday as the amplified trough ejects into the central Great Plains and becomes negatively-tilted. The dryline will, for the third day in a row, propagate into the eastern Rolling Plains and stall as the most intense forcing for ascent occurs well to the north of the CWA. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop across most of the CWA Monday, with extremely critical fire weather conditions possible, as winds may potentially strengthen to advisory-level across the far southwestern TX PH. Please reference the Fire Weather section below for additional details. Low PoPs have been drawn across the eastern Rolling Plains, but the window for storms should be short-lived given the strengthening kinematic fields aloft. However, storms that develop along the dryline will have the potential to become severe quickly amidst the maintenance of large thermal instability and steep lapse rates aloft. Damaging downdrafts and very large hail will be the primary hazards should storms affect the eastern zones Monday afternoon and evening.

The synoptic cold front associated with the negatively-tilted trough is then forecast to move into the CWA during the predawn hours Tuesday, with brisk, northerly winds trailing the front. As the cold front moves southward, it will be convectively-reinforced, which would accelerate its forward movement. Therefore, adjustments to the timing of the front may be needed in forthcoming cycles. In fact, there is the possibility for ongoing storms along the front to the east of the CWA to unzip westward into the Rolling Plains by Tuesday morning. PoPs initialized by the NBM have been maintained. Much cooler weather is forecast Tuesday and into mid-week, with prospects for storms returning each day through Friday and into next weekend due to broadly cyclonic flow aloft.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue through this evening before shifting to the south overnight. Winds will shift back to the southwest Sunday afternoon and are expected to remain breezy through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This afternoon through Sunday morning:

Southwesterly winds will remain breezy throughout the rest of the afternoon across the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains, with the dryline remaining stalled between the HWY-72 and HWY-83 corridors where a substantial wind shift exists. Fuels remain critically dry, with RH values as low as 5 percent expected this afternoon, particularly on the Caprock. Immediately to the east of the dryline, RH values spike to above 40 percent as of 1717Z, but will fall to between 20-30 percent in concert with peak heating as temperatures breach 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains. Isolated thunderstorms, some severe, may form along and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening. There will be a risk for dry lightning that may result in the ignition of new wildfires in areas that observed minimal rainfall yesterday in the Rolling Plains. The dryline will begin to retreat westward as the sun sets, with winds backing towards the south amidst excellent RH recovery tonight. RH will recover to above 80 percent for all of the Rolling Plains and the majority of the Caprock, with the exception of locales in the far southwestern TX PH as the dryline stalls near the NM state line in a southwest-to-northeast-oriented manner. Winds overnight into Sunday morning will remain slightly breezy, or near 15-20 mph, with areas along the lee of the Caprock Escarpment experiencing locally stronger winds near 20-30 mph and localized gusts of 30-35 mph.

Sunday:

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across most of W TX Sunday and Monday, with localized extremely critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday and more-widespread extremely critical fire weather conditions possible Monday. The dryline is forecast to move into the Rolling Plains and stall once again on Sunday afternoon, with very deep mixing of the post-dryline airmass expected as mixing heights soar into the mid-levels. Hot surface temperatures will peak in the middle-upper 90s, garnering minimum RH values of 5 percent across the majority of the Caprock. RH values between 20-30 percent are forecast in the eastern Rolling Plains as the dryline should once again stall between the HWY-72 and HWY-83 corridors, although elevated fire weather conditions will be possible east of the dryline. Isolated storms, some severe, may develop across the eastern Rolling Plains Sunday afternoon and evening, thereby posing another risk for cloud-to-ground lightning in rain-free areas. By Sunday evening, the dryline will once again retreat westward, with breezy winds transitioning to the south as the dryline translates west. RH recovery above 80 percent is forecast across the Rolling Plains and most of the Caprock, as the dryline will stall near the NM state line.

Monday:

An upper-level storm system will emerge over the Rocky Mountains by Monday and generate a strong surface low in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. Southwesterly winds will accelerate by the mid-to-late morning hours Monday as the dryline moves into the eastern Rolling Plains. Due to the proximity of the upper-level storm system and strengthening surface low, winds will be slightly stronger than Sunday, with southwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph amidst RH reductions below 5 percent for some locales. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with the potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions to develop within the swaths of strongest winds due to the critically to extremely dry state of fuels. RFTIs above 6 are forecast across a large portion of the Caprock Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued area-wide for Monday, with the potential for Red Flag criteria to be met as early as 10 AM CDT across the western South Plains. Isolated storms, some severe, will be possible across the eastern Rolling Plains Monday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037- 039>043.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>025- 027>031-033>037-039>043.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ021>044.