textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- A few isolated to scattered storms are expected Monday evening, mainly over western portions of the Caprock.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous across the entire region on Tuesday.

- Storm chances gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday before increasing again by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather through Monday although it will begin to loosen its grip later in the day on Monday. The ridge axis will shift overhead early Monday morning keeping large scale subsidence aloft. However, the axis will shift east of the area in the afternoon. At the same time, a closed off low will be moving onshore and into the southwestern US. Upper level winds will be on the increase Monday afternoon as an upper level jet streak moves across northern Mexico. A short wave rotating around the parent low will emerge across central New Mexico in the afternoon bringing substantial large scale ascent to that area. Subsidence aloft will slowly be replaced increasing ascent in the afternoon. Low level flow will remain southeasterly through the day but deep boundary layer mixing will allow surface dew points to drop into the 40s on the caprock. Low level forcing is therefore expected to be weak with the upslope flow. Abundant convection is expected in New Mexico closer to the aforementioned short wave trough. Any low level forcing would likely have to arise from any residual convective boundaries or newly created convective boundaries from expected convection in New Mexico. We will see some modest instability on Monday afternoon despite warming mid-level temperatures. Mixed layer CAPE values will be on the order of up to 1000 J/kg on the caprock under the deeply mixed boundary layer. Capping will weaken by late afternoon but warm surface temperatures and the mixed boundary layer will create a high based cu field. Temperatures are forecast to be around seasonal averages for Monday afternoon with temperatures mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Better chances of convection will emerge on Tuesday as another short wave trough rotates around the longer wave western CONUS trough.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tuesday will see more widespread convective chances across the FA as a negatively tilted short wave trough rotates overhead around the longer wave trough covering the western CONUS. At the moment, the timing on the short wave would be optimal bringing the maximum amount of large scale ascent during the afternoon on Tuesday. Upper level jet winds are not expected to be that impressive with speeds only around 40-60kt but will still bring wind divergence overhead. A big wrinkle in the convective forecast will be the relatively cool surface temperatures. Low stratus may encompass much of the region through the entire daytime keeping the surface temperatures cool. The surface pattern will also be made further unclear with potential morning convection. The true potential for convective activity for Tuesday afternoon will depend on the Tuesday morning evolution. Another short wave trough will move over the area on Wednesday but the trough axis will be directly overhead during the afternoon leading to lift over the Rolling Plains and subsidence moving in over the caprock. Short wave ridging will then push overhead on Thursday allowing for at least one dry day. Southwest flow aloft this weekend will keep convective chances going each afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. moderate southeasterly winds will continue through this evening into Monday. Southeasterly winds are expected to pick up Monday afternoon. There are low chances for showers and thunderstorms near KPVW and KLBB this evening, however most are expected to stay to the west of the terminals. Confidence in thunderstorms impacting KPVW and KLBB are low at the moment, therefore left out of TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.