textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Temperatures remain cool through Sunday, then rise back near or just above normal next week.

- Dry weather is expected through mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Quiet, cooler, and dry conditions are expected to continue through the short term forecast. The upper level ridge will begin to break down and scoot east Sunday in response to the upper level low over SoCal beginning to eject northeastward towards the Southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low over the lee of the Rockies will develop and increase the pressure gradient across the region. As a result, light southwesterly winds overnight will become breezy by daybreak. Expect speeds around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph with the highest speeds fixated across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern Southern Plains. Additionally, these warm southerly winds will aid in temperatures climbing slightly, with highs in the 60s area-wide under mostly clear skies. The pressure gradient will relax by sunset, with speeds falling back below 15 mph which in combination with clear skies will allow for max radiational cooling and lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The FA will find itself beneath the influence of an upper level ridge through at least the start of the extended forecast period. With the ridge axis centered over the ArkLaTx region Monday morning, amplifying and shifting westward back over the West Texas region by mid-week. As a result, will see southwest flow aloft shift westerly with increased geopotential heights. Thickness values will also increase, thanks to a an H7 area of high pressure along with a lee surface low over southeastern CO. In response, warm southwesterly winds will work to transport WAA into the region working in combination with the increased height values and mostly clear skies to bring temperatures back to near normal Monday and Tuesday, then above normal Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The forecast remains dry through the work week, though NWP guidance still hints at a weak shortwave translating through the Desert Southwest to impact portions of the Panhandle region. If this comes to fruition, there is the potential areas near the Texas/New Mexico state line might see a few isolated storms and/or showers as they move in from the higher terrain. Though confidence remains low in this at this time and so we will remain a dry forecast for the time being. However, this may need to be changed in future forecasts. Our next chance for beneficial rainfall looks to be this next weekend, with both ensembles and deterministic guidance in agreement with the base of a trough translating across the Canadian Provinces to swing a cold front and bring precipitation back to the region. However, considering this remains several days out, the evolution of this system is uncertain with the ECMWF showing a more progressive and wetter solution. While the GFS is much slower and drier. For now will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs area-wide until we see better agreement amongst guidance in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Winds may become slightly breezy out of the south on Sunday afternoon at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.