textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Some strong and severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

- Dry and hotter this weekend, then cooling next week with daily rain chances developing.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A hefty plume of Pacific moisture high aloft was approaching the western South Plains this night courtesy of a 90 knot subtropical jet running from the Baja Peninsula to southwest New Mexico. As upper ridging currently over West Texas shifts east, these mostly cloudy skies (some embedded showers and storms) will expand through the morning and linger for much of the day. High temps are still expected to eclipse Thursday's values thanks to warmer thicknesses. To the northwest of the subtropical jet lies an upper low forecast to lift from southern California in the morning to central Utah by Friday evening. Although this low is displaced well away from the local area, pressure falls focusing in New Mexico through the day will keep our winds southerly while becoming a bit breezy at times.

Despite abundant high clouds, shallow dewpoints in the 60s at daybreak will mix out through the 50s and even the 40s in some locales as temps climb into the 80s and 90s. A diffuse dryline sets up near the TX-NM border by midday, but this boundary shows little hope for convective initiation owing to poor convergence and weak vertical circulation potential. Rather, forcing appears tied more to the arrival of stronger wind maxima from H7-H3 toward 21Z. Storm initiation by this time should encounter anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE - highest along and east of the I27 and Highway 87 corridor. Along with 35-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, minimal CIN, and inverted-V depths of 6-8k feet, the stage looks set for some swift-moving multicells with downbursts the main threat followed by marginally severe hail. Storms should clear the Rolling Plains by midnight ahead of a pleasantly mild overnight with steady SSW winds.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Southwesterly upper winds remain in check on Saturday as Friday's upper low curls north from Utah to western Montana. Even though a surface low remains parked near the western OK Panhandle all day, 850 mb winds veer more SW which will swing the dryline off the Caprock and through most, if not all, of our Rolling Plains by peak heating sparing us from a potentially stormy dryline threat. Highs should easily climb into the low-to-mid 90s areawide on 15-20 mph SW breezes with mild lows once again Saturday night as the dryline retreats over a good chunk of the area. More heat awaits on Sunday as SW flow aloft relaxes and heights rebound nearly 60 meters in response to an amplifying ridge over much of Texas. This alone may squash attempts at storms along the lingering dryline on Sunday, before the dryline withers away thereafter as Gulf moisture expands over the whole of West TX and eastern NM under the ridge. This pattern supports diurnally-driven storms each day with nocturnal events also a consideration given favorable weak shear supportive of persistent MCVs. Given improved low-level moisture, high temps will decline into the 80s by midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR will continue at all TAF sites. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop in vicinity of KLBB and KPVW near or after 20z, then move eastward towards KCDS through the evening. Confidence in any direct terminal impacts is still low, especially regarding timing and overall convective coverage. TS will be relatively high-based, so strong and erratic downburst winds will be likely near any convection today.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.