textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- 2026 will start out with west winds between 20-30 mph on the Caprock, warm temperatures, and thick overcast.

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue well into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

New Year's Eve upper air analysis depicts a closed low that was previously cut-off rotating towards CA, with an elongated baroclinic leaf advecting poleward over the Sierra Madre Occidental and into the Desert Southwest. The eastern edge of the thick cirrus shield, which is several hundred mb thick as observed on 01/00Z RAOBs upstream of the CWA and recent water-vapor imagery, is now advecting over the NM state line into W TX. The baroclinic leaf will continue to advect eastward over the next 24 hours, as the aforementioned closed low dissolves into an open wave, with the 300 mb trough set to eject over the southern Rocky Mountains during the afternoon hours. An intense, mid-level impulse will also translate eastward beneath the ejecting trough above it, with an expectation for highly elevated convection to accompany the ribbon of DPVA. There remains a possibility for some sprinkles, primarily across the far southern TX PH, as the ribbon of DPVA propagates over W TX and ceilings lower to around 10 kft AGL.

Lee cyclogenesis will commence in the OK/TX PH as the mid-level impulse arrives beneath the ejecting shortwave trough, and the corresponding geopotential height falls combined with the deepening surface low will accelerate westerly surface winds to 20-30 mph, primarily on the Caprock, this afternoon. Winds will diminish farther east into the Rolling Plains, where secondary cyclogenesis will occur along a northwest-to-southeast-oriented surface trough anchoring into the primary surface low in the TX PH. Therefore, winds will back towards the south and southeast for locales near the 100th meridian by late afternoon. A Pacific cold front will move through the CWA tonight, and will keep winds brisk to locally strong during the overnight hours as a compact vorticity lobe (i.e., the remnants of the prior closed low rotates through the southern-stream split of the mid/upper-level ridge. Highly localized wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible along the immediate lee of the Caprock Escarpment during the early morning hours Friday, with mild morning lows expected area-wide as winds veer northwestward before sunrise.

Lastly, Happy New Year, West Texas!

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

By Friday morning, two distinct shortwave disturbances are progged to be transiting over the south-central CONUS within strong WNW flow aloft. The leading wave will be exiting into the ArkLaTex region and will be responsible for maintaining a compact and relatively deep surface low over the Red River. The trailing wave over the Four Corners will subsequently deepen a lee trough over NE New Mexico. The combination of these two features will result in a breezy to low- end windy day across the South Plains region Friday, with the strongest winds likely to result in some elevated fire weather concerns over southern portions of the Caprock on Friday afternoon.

Thereafter, the upper level pattern will stagnate once again as expansive ridging aloft builds over most of the CONUS this weekend. This will result in the beginning of another extended period of unseasonably warm and dry weather that is set to stretch from Saturday well into next week. Throughout this period, 500mb heights will average 1-1.5 standard deviations above normal which will result in highs mainly in the 70s, and despite this abnormal warmth, record-breaking heat appears unlikely at this time. During the second half of next week, ensemble consensus favors the ridge deamplifying and mean troughing developing to our west, which will likely bring a return of more seasonable temperatures by next Thursday and beyond.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR, with light winds overnight. Westerly winds will increase late Thursday morning, with westerly gusts to 30 kt expected at KLBB and KPVW and will result in significant cross winds on RWY 17/35 at KLBB. Thick overcast will clear by late Thursday evening, and the passage of a Pacific cold front will maintain strong winds through early Friday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.