textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Tuesday with breezy southerly winds.

- A strong storm system will bring an unsettled weather pattern beginning Tuesday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A highly amplified and slow moving upper trough located in the Intermountain West will have increasing effects on the weather over the next few days. For today, an upper ridge will continue to hang out around the Texas gulf coast with weak height rises locally. Much of today will remain quiet but some convective activity is possible this evening across areas on the caprock favoring areas roughly near and west of a line from Hart to Morton. Height rises will persist through the evening hours but a narrow zone will exist in eastern New Mexico where heights will begin to fall with the approach of the upper level trough in the western CONUS. As low level jet winds ramp up early this evening, low level convergence will correspondingly increase. Very warm surface temperatures today, ranging from the upper 80s to near 90 on the caprock, will lead to a deeply mixed boundary layer. Increasing moisture through the atmospheric column will also bring mediocre mid-level lapse rates. As a result, mixed layer instability will be on the low end with values on the order of only a few hundred J/kg. However, a mixed out boundary layer combined with warm surface temperatures will bring a threat for strong winds. DCAPE values are progged to be greater than 1500 J/kg early this evening where convection may form. Given the expected weak updrafts, however, the threat of severe wind gusts is low.

The base of the upper level trough/closed low will swing southeastward across the Great Basin overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Upper level winds will back further from the southwest to more south-southwesterly during the daytime on Tuesday with the approach of the trough. The upper level winds will take on more of a meridional component due to this reason. Large scale ascent from the trough will be much farther to the west Tuesday afternoon although a weak short wave moving within the south/southwesterly flow aloft may emerge Tuesday morning. Low level winds will back slightly to the southeast on Tuesday in response to the upper level system and surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies. This will ultimately draw significant amounts of low level moisture into the region. A dryline will form somewhere on the caprock but low confidence exists in the exact location of the dryline feature. A very strong low level theta-e ridge will develop east of the dryline, off the caprock. Mid-level lapse rates will not be too much different Tuesday afternoon but cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere will raise ELs resulting in much higher instability values. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s off the caprock but the increased moisture will keep the boundary layer height from becoming extreme. Because of this, mixed layer instability values will range between 1500 and 2500 J/kg. Increasing mid and upper level winds will also promote updraft organization increasing chances for severe storms. Increasing atmospheric moisture will also bring a threat for heavy rainfall discussed below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stronger lift will arrive Wednesday morning as the Texas gulf coast ridge slides east with the western US trough slowly moving eastward across the Intermountain West. Severe chances are unclear for Wednesday with expected ongoing precipitation and expected cloud cover. The most pressing issue, however, will be the threat for heavy rainfall through the day on Wednesday and on Thursday. Moisture will definitely not be an issue for precipitation chances from Wednesday through Thursday. Periods of lift are expected along with an intruding cold front which is difficult to pinpoint at this time scale in the forecast. The threat for heavy rainfall on Tuesday afternoon/evening appears to be minimal given that storms are expected to be moving quick enough to prevent widespread heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values were already near maximum values from latest raobs and these values are expected to only climb higher over the next few days. Mean precipitable water values from ensemble guidance is near or exceeds two inches in some areas off the caprock which is already a high amount for summer months. But this is October, which places these values in record territory. These values drop to around 1.50 inches near the I-27 corridor but these values still exceed the 99th percentile for October. Furthermore, mixing ratios at 850mb will surge to near 16 g/kg by Tuesday afternoon. This amount of moisture is due to the low level flow from the gulf combined with mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Simon off the coast of western Mexico. All that being said, the main forecast issue will be timing of lift to act upon this abundant moisture from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. With the expected cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures have been adjusted downward from blended guidance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Models now show fairly good agreement in pinching off an upper low across the southwestern US from this trough as the remainder of the trough gets swept up with another trough dropping southeast through the Great Lakes. It is this Canadian trough that will provide us with our first strong cold front of the season. Exact timing of the front is uncertain given that it is still at least 5-6 days away. Nonetheless, the front will bring strong winds its immediate wake. Models are depicting a 1040mb surface ridge behind this front dropping into the Plains Friday and Saturday. Current forecast morning temperatures next weekend are in the 40s with 30s in the southwestern Texas Panhandle but could likely drop lower with subsequent forecasts given the strength of this surface high.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in at KPVW and KLBB early Tuesday morning and should clear by the afternoon. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will continue through the TAF period. There are slight chances for thunderstorms this evening, however are expected to remain west of the TAF sites. Could possible see a rogue gust or two at KPVW or KLBB if thunderstorms are able to develop. Greater chances for thunderstorms is expected Tuesday evening, especially near KCDS. Uncertainty is still high at the moment, therefore left out of TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.