textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Slight cool down with isolated to scattered thunderstorm possible this weekend. Gusty winds and localized heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms, though many spots will remain dry.

- Cooler temperatures will continue through much of next week with low (15-30%) thunderstorm chances daily.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Another late-evening line of convection is moving out of eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle. This convection was a little slower to get going than yesterday evening's storms, but the line is more vigorous at 03Z than it's counterpart 24 hours ago. Although instability wanes and inhibition increases with eastern extent similar to yesterday, increased shear from yesterday (effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots) is helping to sustain this convection, with greater intensity and coverage than 24 hours ago. The West Texas Mesonet (WTM) near Romero even measured a peak gust of 63 mph at 8:25 pm, with the Vega WTM reaching 59 mph at 9:46 pm. Given the trends, expect this activity to last longer into the late evening/night than yesterday, breaching the northwest corner of the CWA before waning around and after midnight. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be the greatest risk with this activity, with hopefully some meaningful rain too. Outflow from this convection could have an impact on where storms redevelop on Saturday afternoon/evening.

Looking at the bigger picture, an upper high centered over the Desert Southwest Friday evening will amplify and expand northeastward through this weekend in response to a trough digging southward off the British Columbia coast, that will pivot inland on Sunday. Thankfully, the center of this heat dome will reside well to our northwest Saturday before emerging over the central and northern High Plains on Sunday. Located on the periphery of the mid/upper high, 850-300 mb layer moisture will gradually increase over the southern High Plains. The increased tropospheric moisture, coupled with a subtle decreasing trend in 1000-500 mb thicknesses, will secure a slight cooling trend this weekend.

Additionally, the tail end of a diffuse frontal zone will linger in the region through the weekend. The exact location of the frontal zone, which extends from the northern Texas Panhandle in southeast Kansas Friday evening, may gradually edge southward through the weekend, but its movement will be primarily dictated by the strength and expanse of thunderstorm outflows each day, which is difficult to predict with any certainty. Since the front will provide the greatest focus/forcing for convective develop each day, that makes the the PoPs forecast challenging, which is backed up by the various NWP painting isolated to scattered convection almost anywhere in the region the next few days. That said, the bulk of the guidance tends to favor our northern zones for storm chances Saturday afternoon, perhaps expanding southward Saturday night into Sunday. Minimal tropospheric wind will limit overall storm organization and intensity, though a (still) hot and well-mixed boundary layer will support localized strong downbursts, while the weak steering flow and improved moisture levels could result in a few spots getting a welcome downpour.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The upper ridge will flex across the Upper Midwest through the middle of next week before gradually breaking down and perhaps reorganizing over the Intermountain West late week. This pattern will place West Texas in a period of easterly flow, while decent tropospheric moisture remains nearby. This should provide a period of fairly pleasant summer weather, with temperatures running a little below average for much of the week. That could change by late week, but until then highs in the upper 80s and low 90s will likely prevail through much of the week, with overnight lows mostly in the 60s, except off the Caprock where lower 70s will mix in.

Rain/storm chances will be tied to the exact location of the best deep-layer moisture as the low-level frontal zone is expected to wash out early in the week. In general, the medium range guidance suggest the greatest rain chances may reside south of the South Plains early next week, through the center part of the state, though at least low (~20%) storm chances appear reasonable here. There are indications that the shortwave trough currently traversing the central Mississippi River Valley will be carried around the ridge and approach the southern High Plains around the middle of next week, which could enhance rain chances locally if it were to come to fruition.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR with isolated TS developing later this afternoon anywhere in the area. Probability of any impacts to the terminals is very low at this time, so no TS mention is warranted.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.