textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Hot and dry conditions are expected Friday through the holiday weekend.

- High temperatures in the mid 90s to lower triple digits are expected Independence Day.

- Although confidence is low, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out Saturday evening across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Friday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue for the remainder of the night as precipitation comes to an end for the Caprock regions late this evening. Mid to high level clouds will taper off through the early morning hours Friday with overnight lows remaining mild in the mid 60s to lower 70s with light south-southwesterly winds. Heading into the holiday weekend, the upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will flatten while simultaneously expanding westward, encompassing the West Texas region. In response, geopotential height and thickness values will increase across the FA allowing for much warmer afternoon highs Friday. This uptick in heights and thickness values combined with warm air advection via southwesterly surface flow will aid in 850mb temperatures around 27C to 30C. Suggesting that highs will be hot, in the mid to upper 90s across the Caprock and in the upper 90s to lower triple digits off the Caprock. Although it will be warmer, afternoon highs will still remain well above record breaking territory at our climate stations. A dry forecast will be maintained as the upper level ridge and associated subsidence suppress the overall convective development potential. However, latest runs from the HRRR and ARW are hinting at the potential for isolated convection near the TX/NM state line as a perturbation tracks through southeastern NM. At the surface, dewpoints are progged to remain slightly elevated for West Texas standards in the lower to mid 50s, but with insufficient depth of moisture, with mid-level moisture essentially negligible confidence in precipitation remains pretty low. Will opt to add in a 10% chance for PoPs along the aforementioned area, which may need to be increased in later forecast if the threat increases. If deciding to celebrate Independence Day a night early, look for another warm night with overnight lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s with mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

An 594 dam upper level high is expected to set up near the Texas/New Mexico state line by Saturday morning as the upper level ridge axis continues to translate west into the Desert Southwest region. Subsidence beneath the ridge along with an uptick in geopotential heights and thickness values will aid in much warmer temperatures through the weekend. For Independence Day, a surface low in the lee of the Rockies will aid in southwest surface winds, where they will remain generally less than 15 mph. These warm downsloping winds, combined with mostly clear skies through the afternoon will help afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 90s Saturday afternoon, while areas off the Caprock could see triple digit heat developed. As of now, heat advisory conditions are not expected to develop although temperatures will creep to near 105 degrees off the Caprock. If we see winds around the 700mb veer more westerly in the coming days there is a chance we could see a warmer trend for Saturday. The persistent upper level high will help keep precipitation chances near zero, suppressing overall forcing for ascent, limiting shower and thunderstorm potential throughout the day. Some global models are trying to hint at a few showers and storms clipping our northwestern counties as they track in off the higher terrain. However, lack of moisture expected will likely hinder this from happening. Sunday through mid-week next week becomes a bit uncertain with deterministic models a bit all over the place with the positioning of the upper level high. Depending on where this sets up will determine whether or not the area will see precipitation and potentially slightly "cooler" temperatures. Ensemble guidance seems to think that the area will luck out, indicating daily chances for afternoon precipitation chances as perturbations within the northwest flow aloft track into the region. As mentioned, this will be dependent on the placement of the upper high. If all things align, we will likely see an increase in moisture with dewpoints back in the 50s and 60s in addition to monsoonal moisture wrapping around the upper high and into the region. At this time, confidence is low in any meaningful precipitation but will go ahead and maintain NBM mentionable PoPs through mid-week next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Breezy south winds will develop Friday afternoon. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.