textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms possible early Friday morning, mainly over the South Plains.

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday.

- Hot and dry conditions return early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may persist through the early morning hours. As has been the case, the severe threat remains low in part due to a lack of forcing and instability. However as storms will be slow moving, localized flash flooding remains a threat. Conditions should stay relatively quiet thereafter through the early afternoon with partly-to-mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s. An upper low over Chihuahua, Mexico will slowly begin moving northeastward thereafter. Latest GFS/ECMWF in particular indicate a rather potent shortwave out ahead of it moving across the area later in the afternoon. This should be enough to trigger another round of convection which should persist into Saturday morning. Moisture parameters remain favorable, with PWATs reaching 1.5" off the Caprock. The overall severe threat remains low, however given the aforementioned moisture along with continued generally weak steering flow, localized heavy rain/flash flooding would remain a threat. Storms should diminish in coverage and intensity after sunset.

The upper low will continue to approach the area overnight Friday into Saturday. After somewhat of a lull during the day, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late afternoon mainly off the Caprock where the best forcing looks to be present given the current track. Overall severe threat is still minimal, however localized heavy rain/flooding remain a concern. Everything should move out by Saturday night as the low departs the area. Temperatures will be slighlty cooler than Friday in the low-to-mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A relatively strong upper ridge will build beginning Sunday, bringing hot and dry conditions into early next week. Highs Sunday will increase into the low 90s with increased southerly flow. Upper heights will further increase Monday leading to even warmer temperatures in the upper 90s with possible triple-digits off the Caprock. A broad trough will build into the western US on Wednesday ushering in a potentially more unsettled pattern into later next week. However exact timing and location of any convection remains too early to determine.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light to moderate south to southwesterly winds will continue through today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible near each terminal beginning this afternoon. Storm chances will continue through the evening and overnight hours. Severe potential will be low, however could see some strong wind gusts in the vicinity of these storms.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.