textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Light snow will continue on-and-off through today, then increase in coverage and intensity tonight. - Snow may become heavy at times overnight Saturday through Sunday morning.

- Extremely cold temperatures will continue with wind chills as low as 15 below zero possible every morning through Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The first area of lift has moved off east of the area with weak lift in its wake. Another short wave trough currently observed over eastern New Mexico on water vapor imagery will track over the region on the early morning hours on Saturday. This next short wave will bring an increase in precipitation activity through mid-morning Saturday. Weak short wave ridging and weak subsidence will then move overhead late morning through the afternoon hours. The upper level low responsible for our wintry weather was still churning off the coast of Baja California and just now finally starting to eject eastward. Much of the activity this evening was driven by moist isentropic ascent and this will continue to be the case throughout the nighttime hours. However, there will be some subtle weakening of the isentropic lift as the short wave moves overhead. This lift will provide the next burst of activity before the relative lull in precipitation on Saturday afternoon.

The warm layer aloft is not expected to weaken through the night with persistent southwest flow aloft above the arctic air mass. Current radar imagery shows the near surface sub-freezing layer ranging from 2500 to 3000ft around the 88D. The only thing that will change through the night will be the temperature of the sub-freezing layer. Current temperatures in this layer are as warm as -10C in the southern Rolling Plains and will only continue to decrease. Values are expected to reach as low as -15C in this layer supporting either a sleet or snow precipitation type. Areas to the north and west of Lubbock will see a weaker warm layer aloft or the entire column below 0C which will support all snowfall. Precipitation rates are not expected to be particularly intense with this overnight activity, however, some thunder is still possible mostly for areas off the caprock. Lifting parcels above the cold arctic air mass yields instability values up to 100 J/kg. A few hundredths of an inch of sleet for areas around Lubbock and points south and east. Areas to the north and west of Lubbock may see a few tenths of an inch of snowfall. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east around mid-morning before picking up again late Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The long term package will start with the continuation of wintry precipitation Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. An upper trough will translate over northern Mexico towards the Texas Panhandle during overnight Saturday before passing overhead early Sunday morning. Good upper level lift associated with the progression of this system will prolong precipitation into Sunday morning. Current soundings indicate northern portions of the area will start to see the transition from wintry mix to snow late Saturday. For southern portions of the region, current soundings indicate a small warm nose between 800-700mb will persist through early Sunday continuing the wintry mix precipitation, however chances for freezing rain will be near zero as it is so cold on the surface, therefore expect mostly sleet and snow. Sufficient upper lift with the progression of the trough will bring the possibility for heavy snow early Sunday with some models indicating some localized areas could see 1-1.5"/hr. Current snowfall totals show northern portions could see somewhere between 7 to 8 inches while southern portions of the CWA could see between 4 to 6 inches. The aforementioned upper trough will continue to push east early Sunday morning giving way to an embedded shortwave that will prolong snow chances through Sunday afternoon. Wintry precipitation chances are expected to taper off Sunday evening as the shortwave translates away from the region and mostly zonal flow fills in overhead as well as the post-frontal surface high begins to creep into the region.

Cold temperatures are expected to continue through Monday, albeit slightly warmer than what we will see Saturday with highs in the 20s for Sunday and upper 20s to lower 30s for Monday. Extremely cold temperatures are expected each morning Sunday and Monday with winds chills as low as 15 below zero possible. Following this winter storm, conditions look to be quiet and dry with warmer, although still below seasonal normal, through most of next week as mostly zonal flow prevails through mid-week before shifting to the northwest as ridging builds over western CONUS. Models indicate a front will push through the region mid-week cooling temperatures slightly. The end of next week looks to have a similar set up to this weekend with an arctic cold front bringing cold temperatures and wintry precipitation. Let's get through this weekend first before we discuss next weekend as this is still a week out and can expect changes in future forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light sleet and snow will continue through this evening at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. CIGs will remain near the IFR/MVFR threshold, with VSBYs remaining IFR. A changeover to all snow is expected tonight, with heavy snow forecast at all terminals. BLO MINS will be possible, especially at KCDS, where long-duration heavy snow is expected. Severe in-cloud icing is expected through this TAF period. Snow will wane by late Monday morning.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.