textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Elevated to critical fire danger is expected to continue through Tuesday as unseasonably warm weather and breezy conditions persist.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, especially off the Caprock.

- Thunderstorm chances will return late Friday into early Saturday, favoring locations of the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

We are in the midst of a mild late-March night, and that will lead directly into a warm/hot Monday afternoon. In fact, temperatures will top out in the low to mid-90s for most locations, threatening records. Lubbock's record high of 91 degrees for March 30th (set in 2010) is certainly in play, though Childress will likely come up shy of its record (96 degrees, set in 1940). This will occur as quasi-zonal flow aloft remains largely in place over the lower 48 and continues to spur surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies. The placement of the surface trough will keep southerly to southwesterly flow in place across West Texas through the short term. The southerly flow has carried improved low-level moisture into the region, with dewpoints in the 40s over roughly the eastern half of the CWA late Sunday evening, even a few lower 50 degree readings in the Rolling Plains. This shallow moisture will advect northwestward over the entire South Plains by early Monday before mixing back eastward during the day. At this point, it appears a diffuse dryline will stretch roughly from the eastern Texas Panhandle through the central or eastern South Plains by peak heating. The hot temperatures and breezy winds will create elevated to low-end critical fire weather areawide (see the Fire Weather section below for details).

Despite the uptick in low-level moisture and development of around 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE east of the dryline, the instability will largely be capped off. That said, there may be a small window within a couple of hours of 00Z Monday evening that an isolated storm may try to develop near the retreating dryline across the south-central Texas Panhandle, where CIN is minimized and low-level convergence maximized. Given minimal (if any) upper support and a very deep and dry sub-cloud layer, this setup won't support much in the way of precipitation, even if rogue high- based convection can form. Thus, we have kept PoPs low and unmentionable. Should any convection develop, it will quickly fade after sunset. Another mild night will follow as southerly breezes bring a return of shallow moisture to all but perhaps the far southwest Texas Panhandle.

A similar weather pattern to Monday will unfold on Tuesday, though the mid-level flow will back to west-southwesterly downstream of a shortwave trough approaching southern California. An uptick in mid- level moisture, a sharper dryline and perhaps subtle support aloft will make afternoon/evening convection a little more probable along and east of the dryline from the southeast Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Should a storm manage to take root, a strong storm or two is not out of the question. What is much more certain is that it will again be warm/hot Tuesday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid-90s along and east of the dryline. Record highs are 2-3 degrees higher on March 31st (versus the 30th), so unless temperatures overperform, we will come up shy of record levels. West of the dryline, warm, dry and breezy conditions will create another afternoon of elevated to marginally critical fire weather.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Modest cooling will follow mid-week as the quick-moving shortwave mentioned in the previous paragraph emerges from the Four Corners. In advance of the shortwave a plume of mid-upper level moisture will overspread the region, though veering low-level flow may tend to scour out the low-level moisture. Thus, despite the increase in moisture aloft and lift from the approaching trough, spotty showers (perhaps weak storms) look like the most likely outcome for much of the FA Wednesday. More robust convection is likely as the Pacific front encounters the better low-level moisture/instability late afternoon and evening near or east of our eastern-most zones. The NBM appears way too aggressive with PoPs, especially hanging on to them well into Wednesday night. Given the quicker timing of the trough passage with recent NWP, any rain/storm chances will end much earlier than the current NBM displays and we have trimmed back PoPs. However, we did boost wind speeds closer to MOS levels behind the FROPA on Wednesday.

Surface ridging will skirt the area early Thursday, but lee troughing will quickly redevelop in advance of a more significant mid-upper level low moving inland from the Pacific Northwest. This will tend to limit the cooling behind the shortwave on Wednesday, with most locations still warming into the 80s Thursday afternoon. A brief return of low-level moisture, in combination with a surface trough/dryline, followed by a cold front, will renew thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon into Friday night, favoring locations off the Caprock. The best rain/storm chances will then shift downstate this weekend leaving dry and seasonable conditions in place as Canadian air infiltrates the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Breezy southerly winds will prevail overnight before slightly shifting to the southwest in the morning. Winds will shift back to the south during the afternoon hours and continue through the rest of Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Following fair to good RH recovery overnight, a diffuse dryline will set up from the eastern Texas Panhandle through the central or eastern South Plains by mid-late afternoon. Hot temperatures (near record to record) and breezy winds will create elevated to briefly critical fire weather areawide Monday afternoon and evening. However, the strongest winds and driest air will be largely out of phase, with the breeziest winds (sustained near 20 knots) in the moist sector off the Caprock where RH values will remain at or above 20%. West of the dryline, the RH will drop to around 10% over the southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains, but winds will only peak around 10-15 knots. The fuels remain supportive to fire starts and spread, with ERC values ranging from the 80th to 95th percentile. Given the marginal fire weather expected, we have decided to replace the Fire Weather Watch with a Fire Danger Statement (RFD), valid for the southern Texas Panhandle, northern Rolling Plains and northwestern South Plains from noon until 9 pm Monday.

Elevated to marginally critical fire weather is expected again Tuesday afternoon, primarily on the Caprock. Solidly breezy conditions may elevate the fire danger again Wednesday, though slightly cooler and moister conditions will tend to mitigate the overall fire danger.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.