textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- High temperatures cool off starting Friday with mostly 50s this weekend into early next week.

- Showers and some storms for Saturday and Saturday night, then possible rain chances late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The main forecast issue in the short term forecast is the potential for rain showers on Saturday lasting all day. A potent short wave trough was currently moving across southern Arizona/northern Mexico. This short wave will quickly move eastward across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico overnight tonight and taking on more of a negative tilt. Lift from the short wave will begin to spread over the area out of southeastern New Mexico as early as just before midnight tonight. Large scale ascent will peak roughly in the 06-12Z time frame favoring areas on the caprock closest to the Texas/New Mexico state line. The trough axis at 250mb will cross overhead Saturday morning weakening the ascent and possibly bringing a relative lull in precipitation during the day time hours. A secondary short wave trough will be moving out of the Rockies during the second half of the day on Saturday renewing large scale ascent overhead. A much stronger jet max at 250mb on the order of 110kt or so will move southeastward with the exit region positioned overhead late Saturday afternoon. The short wave trough will be weakening by the time it arrives in West Texas so cooling aloft will be fairly minimal. Most of the instability will be limited to southern New Mexico where mid-level lapse rates will support at least some thunder chances. This will likely result in no thunder chances for the South Plains with this early morning activity. Precipitation intensity is expected to be light at best with totals up to a few tenths of an inch with the early morning activity. Areas across the southwestern South Plains stand to see the most rainfall. Cloud cover for much of the day on Saturday will lead to cooler temperatures along with persistent easterly upslope low level flow. This will lead to a cold November rain. Some clearing from the west could occur in the afternoon but may not have a significant effect on temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The renewed large scale ascent will persist from late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. These renewed chances of precipitation will favor areas off the caprock and in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle mainly after 00Z. This next short wave will be much slower to exit the area keeping light rain chances going through at least Sunday afternoon. The secondary activity will see slightly increased chances of thunder activity as lapse rates steepen with the approach of this next short wave. At the same time on Sunday, a 1032mb surface ridge centered over the Midwest will send a weak cold front through early in the day. Northeasterly upslope flow will again keep temperatures well below seasonal averages. Short wave ridging will move overhead for Monday and Tuesday. Surface winds will veer back to the south with another short wave trough moving across the western CONUS causing surface troughing in lee of the Rockies. Cloud cover will likely keep temperatures well below seasonal averages through Tuesday. The next short wave trough around Wednesday or Thursday has become fairly weak in the latest model runs with little to no precipitation chances. Models then significantly diverge late week leading to a low confidence forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Confidence is mounting in MVFR CIGs and visbys affecting LBB and PVW around daybreak on the heels of -SHRA. SE winds will increase Saturday morning between 15-20 knots at LBB and PVW, and remain breezy through the day with on/off SHRA or brief TS also possible. Greater chances for SHRA and TS should favor CDS Saturday afternoon and evening, but later TAFs will revisit this in greater detail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.