textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions remain expected Thursday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon to 8 PM for much of the forecast area.

- Weak cold front brings slightly cooler temperatures Friday.

- Hot and dry Sunday, with a return of critical fire weather conditions area-wide.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A broad upper level trough will track across the Rockies on Thursday. This will lead to the development of a surface low centered near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Combined with elevated winds aloft at the base of the trough which will somewhat mix down, resultant breezy westerly surface winds will bring warm and dry conditions, and hence fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of the forecast area from Noon to 8 PM. While winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria, gusts to 40 mph are possible during the afternoon hours over portions of the far southern Panhandle. Otherwise highs will range from the mid 80s to the northwest to the mid 90s off the Caprock. Winds will diminish after sunset, with chilly Friday morning lows over the far SW Panhandle, falling into the low 40s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A weak cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. However this will not have a significant impact on high temperatures as they will still generally reach the mid 80s to near 90 off the Caprock. Warmer temperatures well into the 90s will return Saturday with zonal 500 mb flow and continued downsloping westerly surface winds. A deep upper trough will lead to the development of a ~990 mb surface low in the lee of the Rockies on Sunday. The LLJ will be much stronger than that of Thursday and sustained WSW winds may reach 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph on the Caprock. This will bring critical fire weather conditions along with likely blowing dust potentially leading to periods of reduced visibility. Another weak cold front will slightly drop temperatures Monday, but they will climb back into the 90s over much of the area next Tuesday. An upper trough looks to develop over California thereafter which may bring the first storm chances in several days depending on its depth and exact track.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three terminals throughout the period, although there is a small chance by daybreak MVFR CIGs south of the LBB terminal creep far enough north. However, confidence in this remains pretty low. Winds will remain breezy around 15-20G30KTs at all terminals overnight and through Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of the area today. Most critical conditions will occur over the far southern Texas Panhandle where sustained westerly winds could reach 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph along with widespread humidities in the single digits. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect outside of the southern Rolling Plains from Noon to 8 PM with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement elsewhere except Stonewall County. Winds will diminish overnight into Friday and a weak cold front will slightly bring down temperatures. However elevated fire weather conditions remain possible on the Caprock with humidities persisting in the single digits.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible each day from Saturday through Tuesday, with most widespread favorable conditions on Sunday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>036-039>041.