textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- Chilly today with highs only reaching the upper 30s to low 40s this afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions expected Monday through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Robust low level cold air advection and breezy conditions will continue through much of the overnight period, with 3-hr pressure rises on the order of 4-6 mb observed across most of the region at 10 PM. A broad deck of low cloud cover steadily advancing southward will moderate lows somewhat, but temperatures are nevertheless expected to be in the mid to upper 20s by early Sunday morning. There is some low potential for freezing fog mainly near the TX/NM state line early Monday morning, but this should remain quite patchy in nature with minimal impacts besides perhaps a very light glaze. Cloud cover will persist through most of the morning across a majority of the forecast area, with gradual clearing expected for most during the afternoon. Despite the late-day sunshine, temperatures will be quite chilly compared to the past couple of days, with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s as cool surface ridging remains in place. Sunday evening into the overnight period, surface flow will veer back to a south-southwesterly direction as ridging exits to our east. Despite this, cool and moist upstream conditions will bring a return of low cloud cover and allow the surface airmass to saturate, which is expected to result in patchy freezing fog across western portions of the Caprock. Impacts from freezing fog are again expected to be very limited, though a light glaze will again be possible by Monday morning mainly near the TX/NM state line as lows fall into the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Warm and dry weather expected through the long term forecast. Cooler temperatures on Sunday will not last long as upper ridging increases thicknesses and southwesterly surface flow warm temperatures back into the 60s on Monday. Trailing the upper ridge, an upper trough will approach the region Tuesday, however conditions will remain warm and dry with little to no moisture return and any upper lift associated with this system will remain south of the region. The upper trough will depart to the southeast by Wednesday giving way to mostly zonal flow aloft through the end of the week. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday and Wednesday into the 70s, although are now trending a couple of degrees cooler compared to previous forecasts. An upper trough swinging over the U.S./Canada border late Wednesday will push a cold front through the region early Thursday. However, models indicate the front will be short-lived and slightly cool temperatures into the 60s. Surface winds will quickly shift back to the south as a surface high translates through the Central Plains late Thursday through early Friday. Another warm up is expected through the end of the week with possible record breaking highs for KLBB and KCDS on Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings will erode from northeast to southwest this morning with VFR conditions expected afterwards.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.