textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight with some patchy frost possible over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Temperatures will gradually warm back above normal through the first half of the weekend.

- Generally dry weather will continue through the next seven days.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue over most of the CONUS through at least the next 24 hours as a deep upper low over Hudson Bay and a secondary trough over the desert southwest persist. This setup will result in the continuation of chillier than normal weather across West Texas in the near term. Easterly winds will persist over the majority of the forecast area through the rest of today resulting in afternoon highs only reaching the 60s for most locations. Near the TX/NM state line, winds will likely turn westerly for a few hours this afternoon as a weak lee trough develops, which may quickly boost temperatures into the 70s there by late afternoon.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will move quickly through the region as a chilly 1024mb surface ridge originating over eastern CO translates southeastward. This will bring a brief burst of stronger east-northeast winds near or just after sunset which will then gradually diminish through the rest of the night. A compact mid/upper level shortwave disturbance may also bring a few light rain showers late this evening to the far southern TX Panhandle, but the better forcing and deeper moisture will remain to our north, keeping the bulk of this activity near the I-40 corridor. The other story for tonight will be the unseasonably cold temperatures, with lows in the 30s expected over northern portions of the Caprock and low to mid 40s elsewhere. The coldest temperatures are expected over the SW TX Panhandle where winds will become calm and clouds will clear rapidly towards sunrise, which will create favorable conditions for some frost development. Despite the notably chilly start to the day though, surface flow will quickly return to a more southwesterly direction by late morning, which combined with modest midlevel height rises will bring a return of mild temperatures by Thursday afternoon with sunny skies and highs in the 70s expected area-wide.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Friday through the first half of the weekend, the above-mentioned mid/upper level trough over the desert southwest will gradually shift eastward. This feature is progged to pass over the Big Bend region which will keep precipitation chances to the south and east of our area. Instead, temperatures will rebound back above normal with highs expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday and Saturday with dry weather continuing locally. A modest cooldown will then follow on Sunday as a shortwave disturbance passing over the central plains states sends a cold front through our area. A quick rain shower or two may develop along this front Sunday, but the best moisture and better precipitation coverage will again remain to our north. The beginning of next week looks likely to remain dry, with well above average temperatures returning as ridging aloft builds to our west. Temperatures may even reach 100 degrees on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with a increasing, but not definitive, risk of MVFR developing overnight as a upper level trough approaches the area from the northwest. Conditions should improve once again after sunrise on Thursday. Prospects for IFR at any terminal look to be below 5% at this time.

Olson

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ021>023-027- 028.