textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend.

- Elevated to near critical fire danger will develop each afternoon through Friday, especially on the Caprock.

- Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A positively tilted upper level trough axis just east of the Four Corners as of late Tuesday evening will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours, with flow aloft over West TX consequently weakening and becoming more zonal. At the surface, a dryline will reside near the edge of the Caprock through Wednesday morning, with lingering isolated shower and thunderstorm activity set to end before midday. The dryline will quickly exit to our east by early Wednesday afternoon as deep downslope westerly low level flow establishes across the region in response to expansive surface troughing developing over the TX Panhandle. Storm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening are therefore expected to remain to our east, with a warm and dry day expected Wednesday across the forecast area. RH values will fall to or below 10 percent, which combined with west winds around 15 to 20 mph will result in elevated fire danger across much of the region. Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s by Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Flow aloft will back to a more southwesterly direction Thursday into Friday as deep mid/upper level troughing advances over the intermountain west. However, surface moisture will be slow to return to our area with dry downslope winds set to continue through the day on Thursday, leading to another afternoon of warm temperatures and increased fire weather concerns. Low level moisture will finally increase Thursday night into early Friday, but is expected to be rather shallow. A subset of guidance hints at some light precipitation on Thursday night, but a general lack of deeper moisture and forcing for ascent casts doubt on the potential for anything more than a deck of low clouds and some light rain showers or weak storms heading into Friday morning. This moisture will be quick to exit by later in the day Friday, with dry west winds strengthening and bringing another period of increased fire danger to most of the area on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, a strong cold front is still on track to pass through the region early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. The weekend also looks to remain dry across our area, but low chances for showers and storms will return by early next week as moist low level return flow reestablishes across the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR. The southerly breeze will transition towards the west by the late morning and early afternoon hours at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

West winds will gradually increase after sunrise Wednesday, with 20 foot wind speeds expected to peak around 15 mph on Wednesday afternoon. A much drier airmass is also expected Wednesday, which combined with warm temperatures will result in RH values in the single digits. RFTI values up to 4 will be almost entirely RH-driven given the relatively light 20 foot wind speeds, so this should keep fire danger capped at elevated. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for most of the Caprock and southern TX Panhandle from 12 PM to 8 PM Wednesday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.