textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Dry, very warm, and windy conditions are expected Tuesday with wildfire concerns. Fire weather and high wind watches have been posted.

- Low-end windy conditions are forecast to continue into Wednesday and Thursday, along with renewed fire weather concerns each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

This morning, an upper level trough that brought us our rain chances and cold front, is exiting over the Southeastern US, with a upper- level ridge shifting east over the CWA. Despite this ridge and increase in geopotential heights, highs today are only expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, tempered by gradual upslope flow before lee troughing in SE CO shifts winds southerly this afternoon. A pleasant night is in store with temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s area wide, with southerly winds keeping temperatures a few degrees warmer.

As we move into the work week, zonal upper-level flow will be in place across much of the country. A rather deep low over the Gulf of Alaska will dig southeast into the Pacific Northwest, while high pressure stays centered over portions of central Mexico. As this occurs, the pressure gradient increase will result in a rapidly intensifying upper-level jet streak over the 4-corners region (175kts at 250mb). This will result in strong upper-level divergence within the left exit region, driving surface cyclogenesis over the northern plains early Tuesday. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will sharpen across much of the Plains resulting in windy conditions over a large area.

Here locally, breezy 20-25 mph southwesterly winds are expected to start Monday as lee-troughing occurs ahead of the upper-level jet streak. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to even low 80s. Breezy winds will continue Monday night, keeping lows Tuesday morning abnormally warm in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The potential for a high wind event increases Tuesday over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle as the pressure gradient tightens in response to surface cyclogenesis. We have opted to go with NBM wind 75th percentile for Tuesday and Wednesday, with 90th percentile Tuesday afternoon. Have elected to go with a High Wind Watch on the caprock with potential wind gusts to 60 mph. In addition to the strong winds and warm temperatures, the surface low will shift the dryline east of the CWA, resulting in low relative humidity values in the teens. This will raise fire weather concerns, particularly in areas that did not see beneficial rainfall Friday night. The greatest potential for rapid growth of fires would be over the Southwestern Panhandle and the western South Plains, where the strongest winds overlap with areas that received little rainfall. A fire weather watch has been issued west of a Silverton to Denver City line. Cirrus will temper fire-weather conditions slightly Tuesday, but models have a dry punch Tuesday afternoon, which may give way to mostly clear skies allowing deeper mixing.

While Tuesday is expected to be the peak for wind and fire conditions, dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday as zonal flow continues to result in periods of lee- troughing and surface cyclogenesis. A weak pacific cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, dropping high temperatures back into the 60's, but will remain above average. The broadened shortwave trough is forecast to finally eject eastward into the MS River Valley by the end of the week, with mild and benign weather arriving by next weekend.

Tomerlin

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR next 24 hours. Winds will remain light for the rest of the evening and into Monday morning, with winds turning southwest and becoming breezy by early Monday afternoon at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-039.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035.