textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Thunderstorms continue across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Chances for isolated storms continue overnight into Saturday morning.

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and severe winds gusts across the Rolling Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

- An upper pattern change will bring cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

After an active Storm day, we saw a lull in activity for most of the evening before storms across eastern NM expanded into Parmer County. Current radar imagery shows storms continue to track through Parmer County. CAMs are not handling the current thunderstorm activity well, however we could see a few more isolated thunderstorms expanding into our forecast area overnight through Saturday morning. Very similar to the past few days, these storms overnight are expected to be sub-severe with the main threat being periods of heavy rain that could lead to flooding. Especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where West Texas Mesonets in that area measured up to 3 inches.

Saturday is expected to be warmer and quieter compared to the past few days. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging sitting over much of the state of Texas as a deamplifying upper trough swings across central CONUS. The upper ridging is expected to expand to the west through Saturday shifting flow aloft to the west effectively cutting on the subtropical moist upper flow we have had the past few days. The overnight storms are expected to linger through the morning, however we will see a break in activity by early afternoon. Impacts from the ridging will warm temperatures Saturday and keep conditions mostly dry. Expected highs will be in the 80s across much of the Caprock to upper 80s to mid 90s off the Caprock. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms off the Caprock later Saturday afternoon through the evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with moderate convergence along a surface trough and lingering moisture. However, CAMs indicate most of the thunderstorm activity will be to the east to southeast of the forecast area. Severe thunderstorms will be possible. Any severe thunderstorms that develop will have the potential for large hail with MUCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg and severe wind gusts with inverted v-soundings and DCAPE values over 1300 J/kg. These storms are expected to clear the forecast area before midnight and the rest of the overnight period is expected to be quiet.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The long term forecast will begin with a dry and warmer Saturday before a slight cool down and the return of daily precipitation chances. The upper ridging is expected to expand across more of the Central Plains on Sunday. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the upper 80s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 90s across the southern Rolling Plains. Subsidence below the ridging will keep the region dry. An upper pattern change will bring a cool down and daily precipitation chances on Monday. An upper low will dig down the coast of California before moving onshore off the coast of Baja California late Monday through early Tuesday. This pattern change will shift to southwesterly flow aloft pumping in subtropical moisture. Around the same time, Hurricane Polo is expected to make landfall off the coast of Baja Mexico. Southwesterly flow will pull any residual moisture from that system. Forcing from multiple passing shortwaves and plenty of moisture will bring daily precipitation chances with the greatest chances looking to be on Tuesday. Models are in disagreement in the progression of the upper low for the latter half of the week. ECMWF has the upper low stalling across the region through Friday before gradually deamplifying and being absorbed into northerly flow over the weekend. GFS has the low getting absorbed into northerly flow by the end of the work week as an upper trough amplifies across western CONUS over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Showers and storms are ongoing from KPVW to KCDS as of 11z, while the associated outflow extends south to KLBB. Storm activity should gradually shift east- southeast, before dissipating a few hours into the period. The outflow near KLBB may lead to additional shower development through 14-15z. Isolated storms are also possible at KCDS later in the period (21-00z), but may stay off to the southeast. Outside of storms, VFR conditions prevail, with winds primarily out of the southwest.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.