textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Additional chances of thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday afternoon and evening.

- Another cold front is expected on Saturday possibly bringing more widespread convection Saturday evening.

- A brief break in the heat is expected Sunday and Monday following the cold front on Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The convective forecast for Friday is shaping up to be a complicated forecast with the ongoing convection late Thursday into early Friday morning. Numerous outflow boundaries are likely to be hanging around the area through the morning and at least early afternoon hours. High-res models do pick up on these boundaries but the predictability of the location of these boundaries is very low. The prevailing low level winds will return to the southeast as the front lifts back northward. What is known is that heights will be falling through the afternoon bringing some large scale ascent over head. A weak jet max on the order of only 50kt in the upper levels of the atmosphere, seemingly detached from any meaningful feature, will move overhead. Moist isentropic ascent through the afternoon may generate additional showers and thunderstorms under a very moist atmosphere. The isentropic ascent will favor areas across the Rolling Plains Otherwise, the atmospheric profile will remain very similar to what we saw on Thursday. Near surface dew points will be very high with lower 70s off the caprock and mid to upper 60s in the central and eastern South Plains. The increased moisture will also lead to cooler daytime temperatures and therefore less boundary layer mixing. Mixed layer instability may be similar to what they were on Thursday with values on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg. Any updrafts that can exceed the LFC would be very robust under these conditions but again there is little flow through much of the troposphere. We do not see winds above 20kt until you get above 400mb or so. Therefore, little structure can be expected with storms but the robust updrafts will have the potential to lead to tall thunderstorms.

The secondary threat of storms for Friday will exist later in the evening. Southerly to southeasterly upslope flow into eastern New Mexico will generate thunderstorms off the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico. A weak short wave trough in northern New Mexico moving around an upper level ridge may enhance convective activity from there into the Texas Panhandle. Hi-res guidance is fairly mixed on the evolution of this convection as it moves eastward. An area of minimal CIN close to the state line may keep storms moving into the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. Increasing CIN farther to the east may prove difficult for storms to maintain themselves farther into West Texas.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A somewhat wet forecast remains in store this weekend through early next week. A second cold front is progged to push through the Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon and into the FA by early Sunday. This will be another passive front with little upper support and will struggle to make it to our southern zones. Ample moisture and weaknesses in the upper ridge to our south will aid surface convergence along the front for convective development. The overall threat for severe storms remains low with bulk shear maxing out at 25 knots or less, though wind gusts over 60 mph will still be possible. The main threat will be flash flooding especially if the forward progression of the front stalls and storms begin to train. Upper flow will become more northwesterly Monday and will help push the cold front south of the region and precip chances with it. The forecast mid to late week then looks to be rather quiet yet warm. Surface lee troughing will keep surface winds out of the south to southeast. While this will help us hold on to surface moisture, an overhead upper high will keep most precip chances at bay, though some widely isolated diurnal storms will not be out of the question.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MVFR CIGs are beginning to fill in at KPVW this morning, while progress on low ceilings to Lubbock is a bit slower than anticipated. Nonetheless, we still expect MFVR CIGs to fill in in the vicinity of KLBB around 13Z. Meanwhile at KCDS, confidence in low CIGs remains uncertain, with most obs near the airport keeping the cloud deck at VFR. Low ceilings should clear before the afternoon with VFR conditions the rest of the day expected.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.