textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Mostly sunny and warm conditions through Monday afternoon.

- Tropical moisture Monday evening through Wednesday will bring widespread (potentially heavy) rain chances and cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have departed the forecast area to the south and east and a quiet night is expected with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s. An upper ridge axis will move over the region on Sunday, bringing mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. The ridge will continue to have the majority of influence through the day Monday with essentially the same forecast as Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Attention will quickly turn to a pair of systems to our south and west. A deep positively titled upper low will descend over Southern California late Monday into Tuesday. At the same time, Hurricane Polo is expected to be making landfall over southern Baja California. The main upper trough flow orientation would be enough on its own to bring a large fetch of Pacific moisture over our area, however this will also be combined with it "sweeping up" the remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo. Timing remains somewhat uncertain, but areas along the TX/NM border would see the first of the associated precipitation Monday evening, with rain gradually shifting eastward with the progression of the aforementioned trough. Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning looks to be the period that will see the heaviest and most widespread rainfall across the entire forecast area. GFS/NAM develops the dry slot sooner and thus an earlier end time Wednesday morning, while ECMWF remains more optimistic with regards to rain persisting for longer. Respective GFS/ECMWF ensembles are similar to their deterministic counterparts. It remains too early to be overly specific and everything will be monitored closely in the coming days. A drier pattern looks to develop thereafter into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light winds and VFR will be the rule this TAF cycle. The only possible exception will be towards daybreak Monday when the atmosphere near the ground approaches saturation, increasing the potential for a few pockets of fog/stratus development. The risk for a brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be greatest at the northern terminals (CDS and PVW), though even here the overall chance is too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.