textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Above average temperatures persist into next week.

- Slight chance of thunderstorms this evening mainly across the far southern Panhandle.

- Increasing chances of precipitation by late next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A MCV continues to move across our northeastern counties as of 1 PM. Other than an impressive display on visible satellite, the MCV is benign with little to no precip being produced. Many models continue to develop convection along a cold front as it pushes southward from the Central Plains into the Southern Plains later this evening. Global models are in general agreement with convective development while only some CAMs are in agreement. Of the models that show convection, most keep convection mostly to our north with storms being outrun by their respective gust fronts by the time storms make it close to the southern Texas Panhandle. Only a CAM or two along with the GFS bring convection further south into northern half of the FA. Given weak steering flow, a drier forecast is favored, but some low end PoPs have been retained as it will not be impossible for convection to push as far south as our northern two rows of counties. While the severe threat is low, any storm that develops could produce winds up to 70 mph. The upper high will flatten and expand slightly eastward Saturday and will help to further inhibit rain chances and keep any cold fronts well to our north.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The upper high will remain centered over the Four Corners region Sunday through Tuesday before drifting eastward through late week and eventually settling over the southeastern CONUS. This will keep most rain chances at bay especially as the upper high moves over the South Plains region. This will also keep daily high temps in the upper 90s/low 100s. Better rain chances will work back into the FA as the upper high moves over the southeastern CONUS, but this will be mostly beyond the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR and mainly southerly surface flow will continue through the rest of today and into tonight. Potential for TS exists at all TAF sites beginning around 23z, but confidence in convective coverage and precise timing is too low to include thunder mention in the TAF at this time. However, be aware that gusty/erratic outflow and strong downburst winds will be possible in vicinity of any TS activity through this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.