textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Isolated-to-scattered severe storms possible off the Caprock Sunday afternoon.

- High-based showers possible across the Caprock this afternoon.

- Generally dry next week, with afternoon/evening storm chances each day beginning Tuesday, mainly off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Model trends continue to indicate a southeasterly trend in the overnight convection. Earlier widespread non-severe convection has inhibited much atmospheric instability. Although strong winds and large hail remain a threat, the greatest threat over the next several hours is heavy rainfall/flooding, particularly with any training thunderstorms. Again, this would primarily be most favorable over the Rolling Plains where much of the low-level water vapor is currently present. Otherwise low cloud-cover around sunrise will break up thereafter and skies will clear into Sunday afternoon. With that, instability will recover and some of the CAMs indicate thunderstorm development off the Caprock. There will not be as favorable forcing or moisture parameters, however a few severe storms cannot completely ruled out producing strong winds and large hail. If storms were to develop, they should not last very long and quiet conditions are expected overnight into Monday. An upper low will become cutoff over southern Nevada during the day Monday. Shortwaves propagating across the more broad SW flow ahead of it may drive some thunderstorm development later in the day over the far SE Rolling Plains, but much of any convection looks to stay out of the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The same general pattern will continue Tuesday into next weekend with southwest upper flow and propagating shortwaves within said flow. Daily storm chances will occur each afternoon/evening, mainly off the Caprock although conditions are much more favorable east of the forecast area. Breezy SW surface winds will bring warm temperatures with highs in the low-to-upper 80s from west to east. A cold front will move through Saturday, cooling temperatures around 15 degrees.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Low stratus continues to alternate between VFR/MVFR at KCDS, with VFR ongoing and expected to continue at KLBB and KPVW for the rest of the TAF period. High-based virga will be possible at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon, with a lower potential for +TSRA at KCDS compared to the prior forecast. Confidence is too low for TSTMs at KCDS to warrant a mention in the TAF. Expect light winds to become breezy and transition towards the southwest by 15-16Z, with gusts to 25 kt common at all terminals. Winds will diminish by sunset and back towards the south tonight.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.