textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Isolated storms this evening on the Caprock near the TX/NM line, before favoring the far southwest TX Panhandle on Sunday.

- The heat holds tight for Labor Day and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Late-morning water vapor data showed a more pronounced arc of subsidence overspreading all areas off the Caprock and southwest through the Big Bend ahead of an expansive upper high over southern Kansas. This process shoved the eastern fringes of our monsoonal moisture band farther west, roughly near and west of a line from Silverton-Lubbock-Seminole. Given strong heating with minimal CIN and CAPEs around 1000 J/kg today, the stage is set for another round of isolated showers and storms by this afternoon and continuing through early evening, generally favoring areas west of the aforementioned line. DCAPEs around 1000 J/kg along with tall precip cores have proven efficient for a few downbursts these last two days, so we won't be surprised to see another instance of strong or severe wind gusts with some of today's storms.

Despite the H5 high settling over the eastern TX Panhandle on Sunday, its strength remains largely unchanged around 592 dam. So while the subsidence layer will expand over most of the CWA on Sunday, the window remains open in our far NW counties for isolated afternoon and evening PoPs along the fringes of the retreating monsoonal moisture. Sunday's high temps stack up close to today with mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and around 100 elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The main news in the extended realm concerns the heat dome shifting into the Desert Southwest by mid-to-late week which opens our door to unsettled WNW flow along the eastern edge of the ridge. This change is tied to a potent upper trough shifting from the Pacific Northwest to the northern and central Great Plains by midweek, allowing a cold front to impact portions of the panhandles or beyond come late week. Ensemble spread with this change is still sizable, but the potential for a pattern disruption involving cooler temps with rain chances may be in the offing by late week into next weekend. NBM's spotty low PoPs support this signal well enough for now, but its toasty high temps may have room to go lower in later forecasts should confidence in the cold front improve. Regardless, high temps look to hold well shy of record territory next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR will prevail this TAF cycle along with relatively light winds. Convection has been well to the north and west of the terminals this afternoon/evening, and it will remain there before fading through the mid-late evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.