textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for the entire region.

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding during this time.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High probabilities for measurable rainfall remain in the forecast over the next 24-36 hours. We will see height rises aloft overhead this afternoon in advance of a short wave trough, formerly known as Vance, moving northeastward out of northern Mexico into Far West Texas. Weak ascent will begin to spread overhead this afternoon. Lift will peak primarily during the overnight hours into early Friday morning on the caprock. Lift is then expected to weaken on the caprock from mid to late morning but persist over areas off the caprock through the afternoon as the short wave rotates overhead. The larger scale ascent from the short wave trough will be complemented by a modest low level jet favoring the southern South Plains. Isentropic surfaces will see a reasonable 25-35kt of flow contributing to the highest precipitation probabilities during the early morning hours on Friday. Scattered convection is expected to develop late this afternoon spreading into the area from the south. This afternoon will be the last of any meaningful instability we will see for the duration of this event. Instability will only be on the order of a few hundred J/kg but should be enough to produce scattered thunderstorms. Increasing moisture through the atmospheric column will lead to decreasing lapse rates and thus the weak instability. Chances of severe storms are near zero due to the expected weak updrafts. Higher probabilities will exist for heavy rainfall and flooding. Precipitable water values will be on the increase through the rest of today and peak around sunrise on Friday morning. The forecast precipitable water values will range from approximately 1.25" on the caprock to 1.50" off the caprock. These values are above the 99th percentile for this time of year. Although rainfall is not expected to be particularly heavy, the rainfall will be persistent for an extended period of time. There are pockets of relatively high soil moisture on the caprock at the moment, so, flooding may be of concern in some areas. Rain showers will linger into the afternoon favoring the Rolling Plains and taper off during the evening hours on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low level easterly winds will remain in place through Friday night into Saturday morning. Some model guidance is still showing some lingering precipitation off the caprock through Saturday morning. However, this is most likely low stratus and possibly drizzle. Short wave ridging will return late Saturday through the day on Sunday in advance of the next trough digging into the western CONUS. The next short wave trough will track to the four corners by Monday morning providing another shot of precipitation from late Sunday through Monday. Forcing associated with this short wave looks to be briefer than what is expected for Friday but also may be stronger. The other notable feature in the long term forecast will be a strong cold front currently forecast to move through on Tuesday morning. Surface winds will pack a punch behind this front but temperatures don't appear to be significantly affected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Ceilings are a challenge this afternoon as scattered low clouds linger around 1kft. This evening, after 00z, showers spread from south to north and become widespread after about 06-08z. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out during the onset of showers, but thunder becomes less likely overnight through Friday morning. Ceilings are also expected to drop to IFR after about 06-08z. Rain and IFR ceilings persist through Friday morning, and there may be periods of fog/haze that reduce vis to around 1 mile at times.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>044.