textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the I-27 corridor through this evening, some of which may produce strong wind gusts.

- Chances for scattered thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and evening from Monday through Wednesday, especially on the Caprock.

- Drier weather is expected towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A modest blocking pattern characterized by a pair of closed upper level lows over the Intermountain West and building ridge over the east will result in the continuation of relatively unsettled southwest flow aloft over West TX through the early week period. This synoptic setup will allow deep surface troughing to persist over eastern CO/NM and continuing south to southwesterly surface flow over West TX, with a diffuse dryline progged to establish near the I-27 corridor this afternoon. Robust diurnal heating (highs in the low 100s today) will erode residual CIN on the Caprock, with weak surface confluence expected to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Water vapor imagery indicates that plentiful midlevel moisture remains in place, but the generally weak flow and warm air aloft will keep the threat for organized severe weather quite low with MLCAPE values near or below 1000 J/kg. However, the deeply mixed and relatively dry subcloud layer will still support the potential for severe wind gusts up to about 70 mph. Overall storm coverage is still uncertain, but guidance is in good agreement with the best storm chances being along or just east of the I-27 corridor through late evening, with activity diminishing after sunset. Some light showers could continue overnight as a strong low level jet ramps up, but most locations will remain dry tonight (although very breezy).

The synoptic pattern will remain very similar on Monday compared to today with a diffuse dryline again expected to establish over the I- 27 corridor, resulting in another day of afternoon and evening storms. Diurnal mixing is progged to be a bit less aggressive on Monday which is currently expected to result in greater storm coverage on Monday compared to today, although weak flow aloft will still limit the longevity and strength of individual storms. Severe wind gusts will again be the main hazards, with some brief downpours also possible given better instability and PWATs generally above 1.25". Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday compared to today, although highs are still expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Large amplitude upper ridging will persist over the eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week, which will in turn keep southwest flow aloft and a respectable plume of mid/upper level moisture in place over West TX. Model consensus points to continuing afternoon and evening storm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with a few weak embedded shortwave disturbances transiting just to our west, with highest storm coverage expected to be over western portions of the Caprock. A slight cooldown is also expected during the Tue-Wed timeframe with highs closer to seasonal averages. Drier and hotter weather is then progged to return towards the end of the week as cyclonic flow aloft over the western CONUS weakens and upper level ridging builds back westward. Unsettled weather may return at some point over the holiday weekend as a series of upper troughs moves over the central plains, but confidence in any one scenario is very low at this lead time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through this evening at all sites, however confidence is currently not high enough to include in the TAFs. Breezy southerly winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.