textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Warm and dry Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions expected on the Caprock.

- Precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday, mainly off the Caprock. Some storms on Thursday could be strong to severe.

- Fluctuating temperatures with possible fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

This morning's cold front is quickly eroding with winds already veering to the south across our northwestern counties. This trend will continue through the rest of the afternoon as the surface ridge currently bisecting the FA dissipates. Winds will be southerly FA wide by sunset, responding to a lee surface trough. A surface low will break front he lee trough later tonight as the upper shortwave trough currently over Nevada/California progresses eastward. The surface low is expected to move into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles after sunrise Tuesday morning and will have a cold front in tow across central Kansas and Colorado. The proximity of the surface low will allow for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon, especially across our northwest and western zones. The westerly downsloping winds will drop afternoon RH into the single digits across our western zones and between 10-15 degrees across the rest of the Caprock. This will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather danger. While meteorological conditions warrant more of a Rangeland Fire Statement than a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning across our northwestern zones, fuel loading remains relatively high and recent wildfires have started and spread with relative ease with light winds. With fuels in mind, a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Bailey, Parmer, and Castro counties from noon to 7 PM Tuesday. A RFD will be likely for the rest of the counties on the Caprock. Highs on Tuesday are expected to reach into the mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A cold front will quickly move through the FA Tuesday night ahead of the approaching upper shortwave trough and will bring breezy winds and highs in the 70s for Wednesday. Some isolated rain showers may be possible mainly across the Rolling Plains early Wednesday morning as the front passes as a result of frontal forcing, but these should clear by the afternoon as surface high pressure builds across the region and upper shortwave ridging moves overhead. Overall conditions will remain quiet until Thursday afternoon. An upper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Pacific Northwest midweek before amplifying and transitioning to a closed low over the Great Basin Thursday. A dryline is progged to develop across eastern New Mexico by mid day Thursday and begin pushing eastward across the Caprock Thursday afternoon before retreating by the evening. Models are fairly consistent with developing convection ahead of the dryline mainly across the Rolling Plains Thursday afternoon. Some severe storms may be possible with this activity with large hail and strong winds being the primary threat and warrants watching in the coming days. The dryline is progged to move through the FA again Friday but is expected to be east of the FA before convection develops. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be likely behind the dryline Friday as winds are progged to be out of the southwest around 20-25 mph. Beyond Friday, models are in agreement with splitting the upper low from the main flow and send the upper low southward toward Baja, possibly setting up for potential widespread rain early next week if the pattern holds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR CIGs are expected to remain north of KLBB, with MVFR CIGs lingering at KPVW and KCDS through 21Z. Improvements to VFR will occur thereafter, with VFR forecast through the end of the TAF period. There is an indication of some low CIGs/VSBYs returning Tuesday morning, but confidence remains low and has been withheld from this TAF cycle. Winds will remain light otherwise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on the Caprock Tuesday afternoon. Near critical conditions are possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where a Fire Weather Watch is currently in effect from noon to 7 PM Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be out of the west around 15 to 20 mph Tuesday afternoon while minimum relative humidity drops to as low as 8 percent. Winds will be out of the west to southwest around 10 to 15 mph across the rest of the Caprock with relative humidity dropping to 10 to 20 percent.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ021-022-027.