textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms (some severe) are expected over much of the region through this evening, with another round of storms likely on Friday afternoon and evening.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue through the weekend before a cooling trend begins next week.

- Storm chances continue each day this weekend through at least next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The large scale pattern early this afternoon is characterized by an upper level ridge spanning from Baja CA to the TX gulf coast, with our area still sandwiched between this and an active belt of zonal flow aloft to our north. The train of shortwave disturbances within this zonal flow will continue over the next 24-36 hours, extending our period of relatively active weather through Friday. The day has begun rather humid once again with dewpoints still in the 60s as of noon, but strong heating (temperatures near 100 this afternoon) and prevailing southwesterly winds will facilitate deep mixing with dewpoints likely falling into the 50s west of I-27 by late afternoon. There are two favored mechanisms for thunderstorm development today. First, initially isolated or widely scattered storms are likely to develop near or just west of the NM state line after 4 PM as forecast soundings indicate convective temperatures being reached in a generally uncapped environment. This activity will then shift eastward over the Caprock through early evening, potentially expanding in coverage as it does so. Our second mechanism for storm development will come farther to our north as progressive shortwave energy moves over a surface trough over the TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for this batch of storms to spread southeastward through the evening, with its outflow possibly enhancing ongoing storms farther south over the South Plains region. Although it appears likely that storms will develop, it is not certain how widespread they will be given the strength of the mid/upper level ridging to our south. Confidence in storms is highest over northern portions of the Caprock, northern Rolling Plains, and southern TX Panhandle with decreasing coverage of storms farther south. Given the well-mixed environment and relatively high cloud bases, the primary hazards with the strongest storms this evening will be damaging wind gusts potentially up to 80 mph and hail up to golf ball size.

Storms are expected to decrease in intensity by midnight, but scattered showers and a few embedded weaker storms will likely continue overnight as a low level jet intensifies, especially off the Caprock. On Friday, a similar setup will bring additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours, with some storms again possibly becoming severe. The favored location for storm development on Friday is uncertain, but the upper ridge will flatten and retreat a bit southward which could bring higher storm coverage to our southern zones compared to today. However, a drier near-surface environment may still end up keeping coverage relatively isolated. Temperatures will again peak near 100 degrees on Friday for most locations, with a bit cooler highs in the upper 90s over the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The center of the upper ridge will shift well to our east by Saturday and will build quickly over the MS Valley through the rest of the weekend, resulting in a transition to southwest flow aloft over West TX. Models remain in good agreement that mid and upper level moisture will remain in place overhead over the weekend and into early next week as a fetch of modified Pacific moisture is pulled northeastward. This will result in chances for isolated or scattered thunderstorms continuing each day from Saturday through at least Tuesday, especially over western portions of the Caprock in vicinity of a surface trough which will deepen daily near the NM state line. Forecast confidence in storm chances is low especially heading into next week due to uncertainties regarding specifics of any disturbances within the southwest flow that are currently unresolved. Regarding temperatures, triple digit highs still look likely to continue through the weekend, but a slight cooling trend is expected beginning next week with temperatures returning closer to seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. -TSRA is possible at all three terminals after 00Z. Winds will remain elevated at all terminals through at least 08Z. Expecting 10- 15G20kts from the SW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.