textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible across the Rolling Plains this evening.

- Cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The cold front has exited the region this morning leaving breezy north to northeasterly winds in its wake. These breezy winds are expected to continue for the next couple of hours. On the upper levels, a broad trough will persist across western CONUS. An embedded upper shortwave passing over the Rockies this afternoon will trigger the development of a surface low over northern New Mexico. As a result, winds will begin to shift to the east to southeast through the afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to weaken slightly with the shift in direction, however we will still see wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph the rest of the day. Despite the breezy winds this morning and early afternoon, the rest of today is expected to be pleasant. Cooler air following the front will bring a much needed break from the hot temperatures. Highs today will warm to the lower 70s to lower 80s once the clouds clear out. NBM has backed off on precipitation chances for this afternoon. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible across the southern and eastern Rolling Plains this evening. Any storms that do develop are expected to clear out of the region around midnight. The rest of the night will be quiet with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

The cooler temperatures will continue into Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough will remain stagnant over western CONUS, however a secondary trough will dig down across western Canada before passing across the northern Rockies. This will trigger the development of another surface low Wednesday afternoon, this time over Colorado. This will keep moderate to slightly breezy east to southeasterly winds through the day. Plenty of moisture will fill in overnight due to southwesterly flow aloft and easterly surface flow resulting in mostly cloudy skies for most of Wednesday. Hindrance of daytime heating due to clouds and easterly winds will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through much of the day Wednesday. Upper lift will be provided by a jet associated with the upper trough over northcentral CONUS as well as a passing embedded shortwave. Storm chances are expected across northwestern zones Wednesday morning and expand across the rest of the region through the day. Moderate instability through the first half of the day will bring mostly rain showers. However, CAPE values increasing up to 1500-2000 J/kg later in the afternoon and evening could bring the chance for some severe thunderstorms. Only small to quarter size hail and some severe wind gusts are expected with any severe storms that develop. With PWAT values reaching up to 1.5", especially off the Caprock, we could see bouts of heavy rainfall with potential for some localized flooding Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The long term forecast will start off with the continuation of thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential through much of the day Thursday as a passing shortwave prolongs upper forcing. The upper trough that was over northcentral CONUS will dig further south along the Rockies shifting upper winds aloft to the west by late afternoon. This will effectively cut off the subtropical moisture return. With the lack of available moisture, we will see a lull in precipitation chances overnight Thursday into Friday morning. As for temperatures, with the precipitation chances through much of the afternoon and lingering cloud cover, temperatures remain cool with highs in the 70s across the region. We will see a slight warm up on Friday with highs in the 80s. However, a cold front is progged to push through the region later Friday afternoon through the evening aiding in "cooling" temperatures again through the weekend although only to the upper 70s to lower 80s. Daily precipitation chances will be possible everyday through the rest of the long term. After the lull overnight Thursday through Friday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances return following the passage of the cold front. Precipitation chances will continue through the first half of next week with the passage of multiple upper shortwaves. The uncertainty at the moment will be the amount of moisture available for storm development with drier air aloft as westerly flow aloft prevails over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Skies will clear and NE winds will diminish through this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely at all sites by early Wednesday morning, with LIFR and reduced visibilities possible at KCDS. These will persist through the end of the current TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.