textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Very hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday with possible record breaking highs on Monday.

- Elevated fire conditions expected Monday afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds and low RH values.

- Thunderstorm chances every evening from Monday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The rest of tonight will be quiet and with unseasonably warm lows. Lows will range from the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 80s across the eastern portions of the Rolling Plains. Light southerly winds will gradually shift to the west through the overnight hours as a surface low to the north of the forecast area shifts to the southeast. Winds are also expected to increase to around 15 mph through the morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will weaken and become variable through the late afternoon and evening hours as the surface low continues to move away from the region and a boundary looks to move in from the north. Very similar to the past few days, the upper ridging will remain over the region Monday resulting in very hot temperatures again. Temperatures will range from 104 to 109 degrees on the Caprock and up to 113 degrees off the Caprock. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. Record breaking high temperatures are possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The current daily high temperature for KLBB is 104 degrees set in 2024 and KCDS is 109 degrees set in 1936. The forecast highs for KLBB and KCDS are 106 and 110 degrees, respectively. With breezy winds through much of the afternoon and RH values dropping as low as 12 percent, elevated fire conditions will be possible Monday, especially during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM Monday. A surface trough across CO/NM will result in isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern NM. There is a slight chance for these thunderstorms to sneak into our forecast area, especially across areas on the Caprock, late Monday afternoon through the evening. Not expecting much from these storms, however could see gusty outflows and plenty of lightning. A boundary pushing in from the north could prolong storms through the overnight hours. However, the chances for that are low. Once the storms clear the region, the rest of the night is expected to be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Luckily, Monday will be the hottest day of the week and Tuesday will be the start of a "cool" down the rest of the week. The upper ridging that parked over the region the past few days will finally begin to retreat west on Tuesday. Models are in agreement the upper ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest through the latter half of the week. Although Tuesday will be slightly cooler compared to Monday, high temperatures will remain in the triple digits. Highs off the Caprock will be around Heat Advisory temperatures(105-109 degrees), therefore can expect a Heat Advisory issued in future forecasts. High temperatures the rest of the week will range from mid 90s to just below Heat Advisory temperatures. Multiple passing embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances every late afternoon and evening from Tuesday through Thursday. Sadly, models are indicating the upper ridging will push back east over the region through the weekend bringing dry conditions and very hot temperatures again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR is expected though the TAF period. However, a front is expected to stall out in the southern Texas Panhandle. This may bring more variable winds to the KCDS terminal this afternoon. There is a slight chance of storms along this stalled out boundary but chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>041.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.