textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are expected each afternoon this week.

- Record breaking temperatures possible each afternoon through Saturday.

- Potential cooler temperatures arrive this early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Ive said it once and I will say it again, unseasonably warm, you know what it's just down right hot, temperatures will persist Tuesday across the West Texas region. The FA will remain under the influence of the stubborn upper level ridge and associated 590 dam high pressure system parked over the Lone Star State. We will begin to see a subtle shift in the center of the high, centering itself over the ArkLaTex region by Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to a very small decrease in thickness values, nonetheless; unseasonably high height values for this time of year combined with warm downsloping winds will aid in temperatures in the 70s and 80s once again. In fact, another chance for record breaking heat is on tap for KLBB with the forecasted high Tuesday of 82 degrees, on track to smash the previous record of 80 degrees set back in 1964 and 1955. Additionally, there is a chance we can break the record high for the month of December (85 degrees set Monday, 12/22/2025) again, but winds not expected to become as breezy as Monday may limit this possibility. Warm and quiet conditions will continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with lows a bit warmer than previous, in the 40s and 50s, thanks to potential stratus to our south advancing northward early Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Dry, quiet, and unseasonably warm conditions remain the theme of the extended forecast package as the FA remains beneath the expansive upper level ridge. Flow aloft will remain southwesterly to zonal through much of the period, which in turn should result in fairly quiet weather through the weekend. As for temperatures through the remainder of the holiday week look to be just as unbearable as they are in the short term package. Geopotential heights well above normal for December standards will remain in place as the 588 dam H5 ridge remains parked over the southern half of the CONUS. At the surface, winds will remain out of the southwest as surface troughing to our north prevails. These downsloping winds will support WAA into the region, with 850 mb around 17C to 20C suggest highs in the mid to upper 70s and mid 50s. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are shaping up to be the two warmest days of the week, especially Christmas Day thanks to a lee cyclone digging south into the Texas Panhandle, allowing for pressure gradient increases across the region. Wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph look likely and the NBM seems to be a bit two low so will need to make some adjustments to these speeds in the coming days if models continue to trend breezier. There is light at the end of the tunnel, with ensembles continuing to hint at at least cooler conditions towards the end of the year as an amplified upper level trough translating through the Great Lakes regions swings a front through the region Saturday afternoon. As for precipitation late this weekend, compared to previous model runs, most deterministic models absorb the shortwave trough over western CONUS into the main flow of an additional, more amplified trough over the coast of Baja Mexico by early next week. Any precipitation associated with the front will likely remain to our south and east, therefore the prime window for us will be if and when any moisture out ahead of the trough to our west creeps into the region. However, NBM seems a bit too widespread with PoPs considering the current model evolution of this system, keeping much of the moisture.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. South to southwest winds mainly at or below 11 kts can be expected as well.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.