textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Elevated to critical fire danger Friday through Sunday out west.

- Sharply cooler on Monday.

- Risk of storms Tuesday and winds and fire weather Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Wednesday evening saw a largely parallel track of two jet maxes across the US and SRN Canada with the stronger of the two across northern BC/AB/SK before dipping into the lower 48 across the Great Lakes. The southern branch was oriented form OR into NW TX thence across the southeastern states thence out to sea across the Atlantic. A modest disturbance was located across the heartland of the country (more about this later) while a summer-like high was largely stationary across Baja California Sur. We will see the persistent northern branch of these two jet maxima remain well to our north leaving us in a pattern of persistent northwesterly flow through the weekend. A jet streak, currently near a low off the California coast, will scoot to our north making its way from SE WY to MO by Sunday evening. Phasing with a disturbance in the mean flow, there will be just enough energy to influence us. Thereafter, we will finally see a pattern change as the triggering Pacific low starts to translate eastward. We'll likely continue see zonal flow on Monday becoming southwesterly as the low moves into NV by 00Z/TUE and over the four corners region by 00Z/WED. If it were April or May, severe weather with this pattern would be quite likely. Alas, this will be for early March so we'll take a wait-and-see approach. Present timing on this system would suggest more of a nocturnal event Tuesday night, but this is 7 days out and much can change. Still, there is excellent agreement amongst the extended guidance. If it pans out as progged, Wednesday would be another brown day with prospects for windy conditions with a favorable upper low track into WRN KS.

Turning to tangible weather for us West Texans, it looks pretty quiet overall through the weekend with clear to partly (high) cloudy skies persisting. We'll see a cold front in the early morning hours of Thursday which will bring us back in to the 70s. This is where we'll stay, for highs, through Friday with elevated fire weather west of I27/US87. Saturday looks to take us up a notch in temperatures with 80s for a day leading to elevated to critical fire weather mainly in the western half of the CWFA once again. Another round of elevated to critical fire weather is on tap Sunday afternoon, but this will snap cooler as back door front, driven by the aforementioned jet max/trough, eases into the area Sunday night. In turn, this will bring us an opportunity for cloudier and sharply cooler conditions on Monday with highs perhaps in the 50s though there is some variance observed. As mentioned above, with the low progged over the Four Corners on Tuesday night, we'll see a shot of precipitation. It's a bit cool to expect too much strength out of this activity given the situation now, but thunder looks like a reasonable outcome. And then, as mentioned above, the winds could ramp up on Wednesday bringing a bit of flavor to the air.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. North winds this morning will gradually decrease through the day and veer more easterly by this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.