textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Milder highs for Sunday with widespread 80s Monday and Tuesday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire danger Sunday through Tuesday.

- Showers and storms possible Monday night into Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night)

Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Following a cool start to the morning within a broad surface high, temperatures should easily warm 40+ degrees in many areas as mild and breezier southwest winds return. Aloft, H5 heights should jump 30 meters through the morning in SW flow thanks to shortwave ridging upstream and lee troughing in CO and NM. This ridging is tied to a cutoff low settling near Baja CA that may bring us impactful weather by Tuesday. Until then, lee troughing from CO-NM on Sunday afternoon will spur breezier SW flow (highest in the southwest TX PH). Sunday night sees a welcome influx of Gulf moisture into our far S-SE zones accompanied by some low clouds and perhaps fog, but anything more (e.g., rain per the NAM) is unlikely as this layer of moist isentropic ascent is rather thin and unlikely to support measurable precip.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Monday morning begins with some low clouds over the southern half of the forecast area on moist southwesterly low-level flow, but this will be short lived as mixing taps into much warmer and drier westerlies aloft. One exception to this drying is across portions of the Rolling Plains, where a dryline is likely to emerge and remain situated through the afternoon before retreating to the Caprock Monday night. This retreat occurs as WSW winds in the low/mid-levels back more southerly in advance of the approaching Baja low progged to be in northern Sonora by Tuesday morning. Combined with PWATs rising to around 1.2" off the Caprock underneath increasingly diffluent upper flow, there is still a window for showers and some storms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Recent guidance has trended slower with the low which casts some doubt on the generous PoPs of the NBM for Monday night/Tuesday morning, yet this slower theme would bolster prospects for a potentially active dryline in the Rolling Plains by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Models have been in good accord with the low opening up and speeding across the area Tuesday night as it phases with a broad trough over the northern half of the CONUS. This larger trough will send a cold front our way on Wednesday that is likely to overtake much of the Gulf through late week amid deepening NW flow. The week as a whole is shaping up very mild save for Wednesday's cooldown.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated to occasionally critical fire weather is likely this afternoon across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains as southwest winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph combine with above-normal temperatures and minimum RHs of 10 to 13 percent. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect from noon until 8 PM. These winds will return and expand in coverage for both Monday and Tuesday with even warmer conditions raising the threat for critical fire weather.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR with breezier SW winds by Sunday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.