textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Slight chance for rain and snow showers this afternoon in the far SW Texas Panhandle with no accumulation expected.

- Cooler Saturday then warming through next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Things are shaping up drier through this evening thanks to a more northerly track to an upper low currently southwest of Clayton, NM. Dry slotting south of this low is dealing a heavier toll on clouds and precip chances at present; however, as a cold front dives south this afternoon in concert with a trailing zone of mid-level PVA we do expect low clouds to fill in along and behind the front. How deep this saturation grows is in question as most models keep it too shallow for any precip growth. Reduced PoPs to 20 percent sliver in our far NW zones this afternoon as soundings reveal SBCAPEs around 100 J/kg along the front which looks sufficient for a few showers. Even though temps ahead of the front will be well-above freezing across the board, there is enough wet bulb cooling potential in our NW counties for some precip to fall as snow, but accumulations are unlikely given such mild pre-frontal temps and the brief/fleeting nature to the precip. Elsewhere, a warm front draped from Dimmitt to Lake Alan Henry at 11 AM will keep working its way east ahead of breezy and mild westerly winds this afternoon.

Following the cold front later today into early evening, stout 3-hr pressure rises up to 10 mb suggest we'll blow much more than the NBM indicates, so opted for NBM90 winds which pushes sustained speeds to 25 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph. Low temps were tailored a bit lower than the NBM as well given clearing skies and lighter winds toward daybreak as a surface ridge wanders closer. Wind chills of zero or just below are possible in/near Muleshoe early Saturday morning. The core of the surface high will park over the region on Saturday making for chiller highs in the 40s and 50s. Aloft, a shearing trough axis will work slowly over the area ahead of weak NW flow but even this wave will be too starved of moisture for any clouds.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Our upper winds drop off this weekend into early next week leading to a rather stagnant pattern under light NW flow. The shearing trough discussed earlier in Saturday's forecast is progged to cut off a low over the Baja on Sunday that wanders slowly east through next week, but tracks too far to our south for any impacts. A large scale pattern amplification gets underway by Wednesday with a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and a blocking ridge to our west. This will amplify our northerly flow aloft and lead to at least one shot of cooler air by Wednesday following a welcome warmup earlier in the week. Models are keen on reloading the longwave trough farther west over the plains by late week which could supply us with a more meaningful FROPA at some point. Otherwise, the week as a whole remains dry with high temps holding largely above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Westerly winds will soon ramp up at KLBB and KPVW. Can expect wind speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible at both TAF sights. These breezy winds are expected to persist overnight. LLWS will be possible just after sunset at KLBB and KPVW, however will only persist through the early morning hours for KLBB. LLWS is expected to dissipate around midnight at KPVW. Light to slightly breezy westerly winds are expected at KCDS. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.