textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Breezy northerly winds this afternoon.

- Well above average high temperatures from Thursday into early next week.

- Slight chance of precipitation Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A positively tilted upper trough will push trough the area today. This is slightly more potent than the one yesterday and a stronger associated surface front will bring breezy northerly winds in its wake. Sustained winds across much of the area this afternoon will peak up to 25 mph with periodic gusts potentially to 35 mph. As such, highs will only reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds will diminish this evening as the trough axis departs to the SE. A cooler and quiet overnight is expected with light winds, clear skies and lows generally in the upper 20s. An omega blocking pattern will begin to become more well-defined Thursday with an upper ridge over the Intermountain West in between the aforementioned departing trough and an incoming Pacific trough. In conjuction with a return of due westerly winds, highs will climb well above average into the upper 60s on the Caprock and low 70s off the Caprock under mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

At the beginning of the period Thursday evening, a Rex Block pattern will be gradually collapsing over the Great Basin and northeast Pacific. As it collapses, the upper level cyclone will wobble southeast over the Baja Peninsula while the ridge deamplifies and moves over the CWA this weekend. Prior to the ridge, a very weak cold front will move through the area Thursday night, however this front will be ineffective in lowering temperatures, with low's Friday morning expected to be 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday morning. As the ridge shifts overhead increasing geopotential heights this weekend in tandem with southwesterly winds, temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal with highs in the 70's. However, temperatures are expected to be short of records.

The evolution of the upper level cyclone over the Baja Peninsula this weekend into early next week remains uncertain on Global NWP guidance. While both currently agree on a closed low this weekend over the Baja Peninsula, with DPVA over the CWA in southwesterly upper level flow, considerable spread exists in the weakening and phasing of this system into the main upper level flow. The ECMWF keeps a more compact shortwave moving into West TX Monday evening into Tuesday, while the GFS weakens the cyclone substantially quicker with a shallower shortwave. The former solution (ECMWF) would increase rain chances for the area with a stronger shortwave while the GFS would result in very low coverage of showers. With this spread, confidence in PoPs for early next week remains low. NBM precip probabilities will be maintained but are currently low (sub 20%) for the area. Temperatures are expected to remain well above average through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Breezy northerly winds will peak at all sites this afternoon. Gusts to 30 kts are possible. Winds will diminish through the evening and overnight hours. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.