textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Dry and cooler weather continues Friday through Saturday.

- Wet conditions return to the region late Saturday night through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts the H5 shortwave trough spiraling across the OK/TX Panhandles late this evening. This trough will continue to eject northeast into the Central Plains while becoming an open wave Friday afternoon before becoming absorbed into the main flow. As a result, flow aloft will veer out of the west while weak subsidence moves in with the shortwave ridge. At the surface the trough over the Southern Plains will continue to translate eastward and in turn we will see west winds veer out of the north by the afternoon as a weak FROPA surges southward into thew area from the north. Due to the later timing of the front, diurnal heating will be maximized with temperatures a few degrees warmer from what we saw Thursday in the 60s to low 70s. Post-frontal northerly winds overnight combined with mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for max radiational cooling. Therefore, expect a much cooler night with lows in the upper 20s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and in the lower 40s across the southeastern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

By the extended period, an upper level low will continue to dominate over Baja California, while a weak shortwave ridge remains fixated across the FA. Despite this, cooler air brought in from Friday nights FROPA will allow for slightly cooler temperatures to start the extended in the 60s while weather remains quiet and dry. The upper level low and parent trough across southwestern CONUS will slowly translate through portions of the southern Desert Southwest Saturday, before rapidly gaining speed as it ejects northeast into the Four Corners region Sunday. Deterministic models continue to be in decent agreement with the overall evolution and timing of this system as it approaches the FA Sunday morning. At the surface, the surface ridge will expand northward, where we will finally begin to see an uptick in surface moisture with winds veering out of the southeast by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Therefore, we expect to see dewpoints quickly begin to rise and are progged in the 50s and 60s across much of the area Sunday. As the upper level low translates into eastern New Mexico, we will begin to see large scale ascent increase across the Texas Panhandle region, with an area of diffluence aloft overspreading as an H5 60+ knot jet streaks moves directly overhead. This synoptic pattern combined with beneficial moisture in place, with latest forecast sounding showing PWATS around an 1" to 1.25" (primarily across the Rolling Plains), suggest we will likely see showers and thunderstorms develop by early Sunday morning increasing in coverage by the afternoon as we find ourselves within the left exit region of the jet streak. Similar to what we saw Thursday (11/20), the surface low will likely be positioned ahead of the mid-level trough, across eastern New Mexico. As this feature translates to the east, winds west of the low out of the west-southwest will work to sharpen a dryline across the FA Sunday afternoon. This area of low-level convergence along the boundary could lead to a similar linear set up as what we saw earlier today, especially as the Pacific front begins to overtake the dryline. Although guidance seems to be in better tune with one another, it is a little early to talk about specifics, but given the mesoscale and large scale ascent present in combination with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg (primarily east of I-27) suggest a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. One caveat to this forecast will be the realization of how much moisture return we can see, given the fact ample moisture does not look to enter the area until late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Highest probabilities for precipitation looks to be for areas off the Caprock, but given the fact this is still a few days out, we will opt to maintain NBM widespread PoPs while capping them in the 80s.

As this system ejects to the northeast late Sunday and drier air expands westward with surface winds veering out of the west- southwest, we will see precipitation decrease from west to east. Overall dry and quiet weather is expected through the rest of the period as the system ejects into the Central Plains. Our eyes are then set at the potential for a cooler airmass moving into the region, as an upper level shortwave over the Intermountain West moves into the High Plains mid-week and swings a cold front into the region. Models diverge quite a bit in regards to the strength of this system with the GFS showing a stronger closed low while the ECMWF keeps this system an open wave. However, they seem to be handling the timing of this front fairly well. Given this, NBM highs in the 50s on Wednesday seem reasonable and will be kept. At this time, it looks like we will begin to mix out fairly quick with winds veering out of the southwest in response to a surface low developing to our northeast which will allow highs to climb into the 60s for turkey day!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A very moist atmosphere in place may lead to low CIGS and visbys at all TAF sites this morning but chances are low at the moment. Additionally, an area of low CIGS/visbys were moving southward out of the southern Texas Panhandle but is expected to remain north of the terminals this morning. A weak cold front will move through late this afternoon shifting light westerly winds to the north. Low CIGS and visbys will be possible again early Saturday morning with greatest chances at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.