textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Slight chance of late evening thunderstorms tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Very warm temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with isolated afternoon storms.

- Slightly cooler for the weekend with continued chances of afternoon thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

More robust high based convection is expected this afternoon but initiating in New Mexico and then drifting into the area this evening. A weak short wave trough moving across central New Mexico into northern New Mexico will help initiate these storms early in the afternoon. This will be associated with an upper level jet streak on the order of 70-80kt moving from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. This area of wind divergence overhead combined with the very hot surface temperatures will initiate thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain of New Mexico. Any storms able to advect into the southwestern Texas Panhandle this evening will continue to have a sufficient amount of instability to maintain this thunderstorm activity. Parcels that are able to reach the LFC would have approximately 1500-2000 J/kg of available instability to work with. Although there will be a threat of hail from these storms the primary threat will be strong to severe wind gusts. Winds through the mid-troposphere are not expected to be that strong through the evening. We would have to reach over 400mb or so to see some stronger winds. However, this may be enough to see some storm organization to be able to produce the strong wind gusts.

For Wednesday, a sprawling ridge will cover the southeastern US into Texas. Continued troughing over the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains will allow for surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies during the afternoon. A dryline will mix eastward which will extend from the south-central Texas Panhandle into the southwestern South Plains. Large scale ascent will be lacking on Wednesday afternoon but the near surface convergence would be enough for convective initiation sometime mid to late afternoon. Surface dew points are expected to mix out more tomorrow under warmer temperatures. Cloud bases will be very high with storms primarily producing strong to severe wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Daily chances of convection will continue for the rest of the week and through the weekend with an upper level ridge sitting to our southeast. Very little organization can be expected from any convection during this time due to the proximity of the upper level ridge. Atmospheric flow through the column will continue to be weak with storms primarily being capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts each afternoon. Models are indicating a weak stalled out from Thursday into Friday which may bring higher thunderstorm chances during this time period in vicinity of the front. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected this weekend following the weak cold front and relatively high surface dew points remaining in the 60s during the daytime. Otherwise, there does not look to be much of a break to this pattern through at least early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MVFR conditions continue to improve back towards VFR early this afternoon. Thereafter, VFR will continue through the rest of the day before MVFR threatens both KLBB and KPVW just before daybreak Wednesday. Confidence in coverage of low ceilings is uncertain, therefore have opted for no TAF mention at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.