textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 550 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Light rainfall early this afternoon will gradually diminish, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible from late afternoon through tonight. Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding.

- Warmer and quieter weekend before an upper pattern change brings cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Heavy thunderstorms have given way to light rain showers as of noon. While a few isolated thunderstorms are possible through the rest of the afternoon, the general trend will be for lingering rain showers to gradually diminish. This does put the current forecast high temps in jeopardy for this afternoon as rain and cloud cover are keeping areas on the Caprock in the 60s. It is yet to be seen if cloud cover will give way to sunshine before peak heating ends. Though mid/upper level dry air is working its way into the FA, low level moisture and clouds remain. The incoming dry will likely inhibit widespread shower and thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon into the evening, but an upper shortwave currently visible on WV imagery could provide enough lift to allow for isolated to scattered storm development thanks to increased surface moisture. Any storms that do develop will capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. A lull in precip is expected Saturday as upper ridging builds over the Central and Southern Plains. Many models, however, do have some convection possible by late Saturday afternoon across our southeastern zones along a theta-e axis. A slight chance mention has been kept in the forecast for the time being. Mostly clear skies and the incoming upper ridge will allow afternoon highs to warm into the 80s and 90s Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper ridging will take hold of the region late weekend into early next week and will give a lull in precip chances while also warming afternoon highs into the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday and Monday. Unlike just a couple of weeks ago, warm temps will only be temporary. An upper shortwave trough is expected to break from an upper low currently over the Bering Sea and move into the Pacific Coast as a closed low by late Sunday. This closed low will deepen as it moves southeastward into the Desert Southwest Monday and Tuesday. During this time, the upper low will begin to siphon moisture from Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific with Polo eventually phasing with the upper low. This will greatly enhance moisture availability as the upper low begins moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico by mid next week. Depending on the speed and timing of the upper low, this could result in widespread heavy rainfall for much of the region Wednesday and Thursday. This forecast is still too far out to begin highlighting hydro concerns, and there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the timing and location of the upper low. It does, however, bare watching for now. Another factor in the forecast would be the potential for a cold front during this time frame which would greatly enhance lift. What is more certain is the continuance of fall like temperatures through much of mid to late next week thanks to this system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR and diminishing southerly winds will continue through this evening. Scattered showers are possible at KLBB and KPVW after midnight and potentially arriving at KCDS a few hours later. Lower CIGs/VIS is possible within any showers. These should depart around the 12-15Z timeframe. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, however confidence remains too low to include for any site.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.