textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- A cold front Sunday morning will give way to cooler temperatures and windy conditions.

- Warm and dry conditions expected Tuesday through late week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The cold front that is expected to push through the region Sunday is in southern Nebraska as of 18Z. FROPA is forecast across our northern zones after midnight tonight and through the FA before noon Sunday. Low-end windy conditions (just under advisory level) will exist behind the front as pressure rises of 4 mb/hour are expected. There is potential for for light rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm behind the front tomorrow from a combination of lift from the approaching upper shortwave and frontal forcing. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will exist across our far eastern zones where surface flow will be more convergent, though the best environment for convective development will be well south and east of the FA. Any storm that does develop will have the potential for wind gusts over 60 mph and large hail. Cloud cover and CAA will keep highs on the cool side Sunday, barely reaching into the 70s across our northern zones. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset and become light after midnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Rather benign but warm weather is in store Monday through mid week. Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Monday with the axis moving overhead by Wednesday with surface winds being out of the south during this time. The combination of overhead ridge and south to southwest surface winds will keep afternoon high temps in the mid to upper 90s. A pattern change is progged by late week as the upper ridge is kicked eastward by an upper low/trough that will move into the Pacific Northwest by mid week. This may be the fire in a series of upper troughs that will dominate the western CONUS late week and into the weekend, beyond the current forecast period. Also hinted by models with this progged pattern change is the potential for daily dryline convection. While not overly optimistic at this point, it is something worth watching over the next many days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR will continue this afternoon and into tonight at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with a southwesterly breeze. There is a slim chance for TSTMs to affect KCDS this afternoon, but confidence is too low to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will subside by sunset at all terminals, with winds shifting to the north late Sunday morning following a strong cold front. MVFR CIGs will trail the front, with gusts up to 30-35 kt forecast. A better potential for TSTMs will accompany the front at KCDS Sunday morning. MVFR CIGs last beyond the scope of this TAF period at all terminals.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.