textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible off the Caprock this afternoon, then again late tonight through early Thursday morning across the Caprock.

- The severe weather threat remains low, although small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall may accompany any storm.

- Cooler with daily precipitation chances through the weekend, before drier and warmer conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning currently shows the remnants of an MCV spiraling across portions of the northern Texas Panhandle as the H5 shortwave begins to translate northeast into the TX/OK Panhandle. Unfortunately, there is a low confidence in the outcome of today's forecast in regards to both temperatures and forecast as a result of last nights precipitation and this mornings cloud deck remaining on hold across much of the region. High temperatures will likely be cooler than yesterday, specifically across the Caprock where we expect to see the thick cloud deck linger longer, while off the Caprock we expect highs to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s with clouds already beginning to taper off via satellite imagery. Meanwhile at the surface, a messy pattern is on display with the surface high centered across the LBK metro, while the surface low is parked just northeast across the northern Rolling Plains. This has lead to variable and light winds to prevail across the FA this morning, while we expect winds to become more southeasterly by the afternoon across much of the area. Despite all of this, moisture will continue to increase, with dewpoints progged once again in the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Rich low-level moisture in place, combined with the PVA anomalies tracking through as the H5 trough ejects northeast may lead to the potential showers and thunderstorms developing primarily east of the I-27 corridor this afternoon. Where we expect the better instability to reside with warmer temperatures and deep moisture aiding in a destabilized environment with MLCAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Bulk shear will remain weak, similar to what we saw yesterday, while MLLR remain rather weak. As a result, the severe weather threat remains low, although small hail and a few stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out with any storm that is able to develop this afternoon. The main threat with storms this afternoon will be the locally heavy rain threat, considering PWATs are near 1.5" across the aforementioned area, which may lead to localized flooding concerns off the Caprock. Similar to yesterday, there is a 50/50 split amongst guidance in regards to the extent of coverage of storms and if they will hold together before crossing into our area from eastern New Mexico. Considering the environment is potentially overworked and will have little time to recover from overnight and morning convection across the Caprock in addition to weak steering flow, this forecaster is inclined to think the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be limited. However, considering yesterdays convective outcome with weak steering flow, a lot of the convective potential looks to be dependent on if we can see boundary layer recovery before initialization. If storms make it into the area late tonight into early Thursday morning, expect a similar scenario to what we saw last night, with storms growing upscale as the LLJ ramps up. Slow storms motions and rich moisture in place will lead to a heavy rainfall and flash flooding concern. Remember: Turn around, Don't Drown; floodwaters are incredibly difficult to see at night, so never attempt to drive across flooded roadways.

By Thursday, the upper level trough over Baja California will have moved into north-central Mexico. Flow aloft will then have become more southwesterly, beginning to aid in monsoonal moisture transport into the area, specifically from the H3 to H7 level. In addition to residual moisture in place and perturbations tracking through the area out ahead of the parent trough will lead to afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances once again across the area. Instability parameters look weak, so we are not expecting any widespread severe threat, although we cannot rule out small hail and gusty winds. Once again the primary threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to a flooding concern, given the deep saturated column of moisture present on forecast soundings and PWATs above the climatological normal for this time of year. As for temperatures, highs will be warmer, but not unseasonably hot, with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s by the late afternoon as morning clouds diminish in coverage.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Not much of a change to note to the extended forecast package with the main theme still being the chances for daily afternoon precipitation and "cooler" high temperatures through the weekend, before drier and hot conditions return early next week. The upper level low is expected to become centered across Far West Texas by the start of the extended, with guidance in better agreement with the evolution of this system, ejecting northeast through the FA through the weekend. Mid to upper level moisture will begin to increase as this system inches closer as southwest flow transports monsoonal moisture into the region. Saturday looks to bring the best chances for precipitation as the upper level low centers itself over the West Texas region with the associated H5 50+kt jet streaks positioned just to our south. Once again, the severe threat remains low with the main threat being the potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns given the deep moisture present. Given there is still a bit of uncertainty amongst the global models and regional models, with the NAM being a bit slower compared to the the ECMWF and GFS, confidence is still fairly low in regards to precipitation chances. Will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being until confidence increases. Turning into early next week, an upper level ridge will build back in while it amplifies northward across the Plains. As a result, height and thickness will begin to increase leading to a much warmer and drier week ahead.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Low confidence forecast this morning with plenty of uncertainty regarding convective impacts today and tonight. In the immediate term, precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage with winds returning to a southeasterly direction. There is a low chance of a brief period of MVFR CIGs through the morning hours at any site, but probability is too low for TAF mention at this time. This afternoon, another round of scattered TSRA is expected to develop, but coverage, location, and timing are uncertain. For now, will cover with PROB30 until confidence improves. Additional TS are possible late tonight, but uncertainty is too high for TAF mention at this lead time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.