textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Warm and breezy Thursday with chances for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle by the late afternoon.

- The potential for severe thunderstorms continue Friday and Saturday afternoon, with a heavy rainfall threat overnight Saturday. - Drying out early next week, before another chance for rainfall next Tuesday

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Satellite imagery late this evening is beginning to detect the presence of low-level stratus beginning to develop across the northern Hill Country. As dewpoints begin to increase to our south, we can expect this deck of low clouds to progress northward eventually creeping into southern portions of the FA as southerly winds at the surface transports efficient gulf moisture into the area. Southerly surface winds will continue overnight through much of the day Thursday as a surface trough centers itself across northeastern NM and the western Texas Panhandle. As a result, moisture will continue to increase across the Caprock regions throughout the day Thursday, with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s and 50s. Additionally, as the surface trough digs southward through the day, pressure gradient increases will allow for a few southerly breezes with speeds around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts around 25 mph likely. The upslope component to the winds, combined with the uptick in geopotential heights will also aid in warmer temperatures on Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer than previous days in the lower to mid 80s. As for precipitation, similar to earlier forecasts, chances for rain do not look as great compared to chances later this weekend into the weekend.

A mid-level disturbance tracking out ahead of the parent low over the western CONUS is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle, with the better large-scale ascent remaining north of the forecast area. However, the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may reside near the southern periphery of this lift. Given the increase in moisture along with modest instability in place by mid- afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Particularly developing along the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico, tracking into our northwestern counties by late Thursday afternoon. Hi-resolution guidance, including the NAM and RAP, suggest MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg along with steep mid-level lapse rates nearing 8 C/km. Any storms that are able to develop within this decently primed environment could be capable of producing quarter sized hail and locally strong to potentially severe wind gusts up to 60 mph.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Main theme of the extended forecast package is the increased chances for rain across much of the Caprock regions. By early Friday morning the upper level low off the Pacific coast will begin to move onshore the California coastline. In response, associated large scale troughing across the Desert Southwest will result in southwest flow through the mid to upper levels, allowing for efficient subtropical moisture transport into the region through much of the weekend. Latest guidance in regards to Friday is still a bit murky, with quite a few potential caveats in regards to Friday precipitation chances. First off, low-level stratus will likely linger through the late morning hours and potentially early afternoon hours which could limit the diurnal heating process. Secondly, CAMs are suggesting psuedo-boundary lingering to our north which could act to either enhance convergence depending on how far south it tracks or even limit convective potential all together. Lastly, we are not entirely sure on how effects from any convection late Thursday night into early Friday morning near the area will effect the environment, especially with any lingering outflow boundaries, if any. Now, that is a whole lot of "what if's" in regards to precipitation chances Friday. What we can tell so far is that moisture will continue to increase at the surface thanks to southerly flow, as well from the mid to upper levels as previously mentioned with PWATs set to be above the 90th percentile climatological normal for this time of year nearing an inch across portions of the area. Despite the lack of overall forcing aloft, with the main lift being sources from disturbances rippling through the main flow, increase moisture combined with modest instability with MLCAPE values around 1400-1600 J/kg, bulk shear magnitudes around 30 kts, and steep MLLR suggest strong to severe caliber storms will be possible.

A similar synoptic set-up is expected Saturday, although forcing for ascent will increase as the upper low tracks closer to the region Saturday afternoon. A shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the parent trough will make its way into the region, with an associated H5 jet and area of diffluence, setting up across the Caprock regions. Similar to the Friday "what if's" a lot of Saturday's convective potential will have its fate decided by the amount of activity we see Friday and how fast the environment can recover. At this time, there looks to be a small window for severe caliber storms Saturday afternoon, if we see a swift recovery in the environment, with guidance suggesting MUCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg with bulk shear magnitudes around 25 to 30 knots. This set-up will then begin to favor a more heavy rainfall event with soundings depicting long-skinny CAPE profiles along with a saturated column of moisture from the surface to upper-levels as we head to the overnight hours. The increased moisture in place, combined with enhancement of the LLJ will likely allow ongoing storms to grow upscale leading to a concern for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns. Overall, details remain very uncertain this far out to get too deep into specifics at this time. Moral of the story, in this case forecast discussion, now is the time to prepare for the potential for hazardous weather Friday through the weekend with all hazards possible including strong winds, hail, heavy rainfall, along with the potential for an isolated tornado or two.

Early next week, the system will depart with drier air funneling back into the region briefly. However, ensemble guidance suggest a rather quick turnaround bringing probabilities for precipitation back into the region as early as next Tuesday as the upper level low moves into the Four Corners region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR and southerly breezes will continue overnight before low stratus lifts northward into the region early this morning. Current expectation is for IFR CIGs to develop at KLBB and KPVW near daybreak, then persist through late morning. VFR will then return to the entire area by early afternoon. Some high-based convection may then develop well to the northwest of KPVW this afternoon, but impacts to the terminals appear unlikely at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.