textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms continue through early next week, with severe storms possible Friday.

- High temperatures warming into the 90s this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A sheared out trough axis will continue to pull away east of the region this afternoon. Height rises and subsidence will fill in aloft behind this departing trough axis. Despite this, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. At the surface, a remnant surface trough boundary will be draped across the southern Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains. South of this boundary, southeasterly low level flow will allow theta-e values to surge upward from the southern Rolling Plains into the northern South Plains. Models depict fairly deep boundary layer mixing around 2km under temperatures in the mid to upper 80s leading to relatively high cloud bases. Despite the warming mid-level temperatures associated with the ridging, this will yield up to 1500 J/kg of deeply mixed instability across this low level theta-e axis. Very weak flow through much of the troposphere will cause any updrafts to struggle to become organized. Given the mixed boundary layer, some storms could produce strong wind gusts.

The aforementioned upper ridge axis will shift eastward on Friday allowing mid and upper level winds to back to the southwest ahead of a deeper trough moving across the southwestern CONUS. Upper level flow will increase out ahead of the trough placing West Texas in the vicinity of an exit region of an upper level jet streak on the order of 60-80kt. Large scale ascent overhead will be increasing through the day. The boundary layer on Friday is expected to be as mixed as it is today bringing relatively high cloud bases. A low level theta- e axis will surge northward ahead of a very diffuse dryline positioned in the western South Plains. Deeply mixed parcels with this layer will again see instability values on the order of 1000- 1500 J/kg but with increased flow at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Initiation point of any convection is unclear at the moment with the large scale ascent acting upon the entire region. The best chances of severe storms will be from the central South Plains to the western Rolling Plains where instability will be maximized. The relatively dry near surface layer will support strong to severe wind gusts with a lesser hail threat.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For Saturday, a negatively tilted trough will rotate into the Central Plains with continued southwest flow aloft. Surface cyclogenesis spreading into western Kansas will bring low level southwesterly flow and an eastward mixing dryline. By the afternoon, the dryline will likely be east of the Rolling Plains or close to the FA border. Therefore any storms would likely be east of the FA on Saturday afternoon. Continued southwest flow aloft from Sunday through the middle of next week will allow for daily chances of convection in broad low level southeasterly flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR expected for the next 24 hours. Clouds at Childress will scatter out presently.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.