textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- A few isolated to scattered storms are expected this evening and again Monday evening, mainly over western portions of the Caprock.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous across the entire region on Tuesday.

- Storm chances gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday before increasing again by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Upper level flow remains generally northerly as midday Sunday with water vapor imagery highlighting quite a bit of residual mid and upper level moisture in place courtesy of last night's convection and a weak low over the TX Gulf Coast. Surface flow will remain out of the southeast today, and although some modest mixing will occur, enough residual moisture in place combined with easy reach of convective temperatures should support the development of a few isolated to scattered storms early this evening over western portions of the South Plains. Weak flow aloft will limit convective organization and severe potential overall, but a few strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible as this activity drifts southward over the Caprock through late evening with quiet weather returning tonight. On Monday, a narrow midlevel ridge currently centered over the Four Corners will drift eastward over far west TX, downstream of deepening troughing over southern CA. The resultant increase in subsidence and midlevel temperatures (although modest overall) should prevent most or all convective development locally despite continued southeast surface flow, but a stray cell or two is nevertheless possible especially near the state line. A more likely scenario is for terrain-focused convection over eastern NM to approach from the west late Monday night, although the bulk of this should hold off until Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The above-mentioned upper trough axis will acquire a negative tilt over the Four Corners early Tuesday, with a couple of distinct shortwaves set to bring rain chances to a majority of the region through the day. The first of these is expected to bring a round of showers and storms mainly to western zones Tuesday morning before a second embedded wave likely results in another more widespread batch Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although plentiful moisture will be in place and forcing for ascent will be relatively strong, a continued lack of strong shear through most of the atmosphere (effective magnitudes progged to be less than 25 kt) will limit the potential for organized severe weather, and instability may also be relatively limited given the effects of any early-day convective activity. Still, most model soundings depict enough recovery to support afternoon MUCAPE values above 1000 J/kg which could support a couple of stronger or marginally severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially over southern and eastern portions of the region. Although most of the forecast area should see at least a bit of measurable precipitation, exact amounts are uncertain given low confidence in the strength, duration, and coverage of strong convection. Ensemble consensus currently points to about a 50% chance of rain totals exceeding a half inch Tuesday, with higher probabilities of this occurring farther to our south over the Permian Basin.

Storm chances will decrease from west to east on Tuesday night, but isolated to scattered activity is expected to return on Wednesday afternoon and evening especially off the Caprock as a pocket of cooler temperatures aloft associated with the departing wave persists over a continued moist lower atmosphere. Thursday is expected to be mainly dry over a majority of the region as a ridge axis builds aloft in advance of what is progged to be a fairly deep mid/upper level cutoff low over the Great Basin. Southwesterly flow aloft is currently expected to develop over West TX by Friday in advance of this feature, with daily chances for thunderstorms returning each day from Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.