textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Heavy snow is expected tonight, along with the potential for whiteout conditions, making travel difficult or impossible.

- Life-threatening travel conditions are expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle tonight.

- Snow will end Sunday afternoon, with extreme cold lasting through Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, the southern-stream, positively-tilted, shortwave trough was pivoting over Baja Sur. A small, but still closed, mid-level cyclone was embedded within this trough, and is expected to open this afternoon as a northern-stream jet streak translating southward over the Sierra Nevada Mountains impinges on the southern-stream trough. Broad, southwesterly flow and its associated WAA (i.e., the warm-conveyor) persists over W TX, with widespread, isentropically-induced sleet and snow ongoing across the entire CWA. While the 12Z RAOB data has been sparse, interpolation between the EPZ and OUN RAOBs, in addition to trends in water-vapor imagery and mesoscale analysis, indicate that the warm nose above the shallow Arctic airmass remains sharp and well-defined. There have been confirmed reports of sleet despite surface temperatures in the single-digits, which is an exceptionally rare observation for temperatures this cold, and cements that the warm nose is, indeed, intact aloft. As the trough ejects northeastward throughout the rest of the afternoon, the wide field of moist, isentropic ascent will be maintained, with light sleet and snow expected area-wide through sunset. Localized spurts of moderate-to-heavy sleet and/or snow can also be expected through this evening before a changeover to snow.

At the surface, the northerly fetch persists, with brisk winds between 15-25 mph. Temperatures were very cold, with all WTM sites observing temperatures below 10 degrees, with the exception of Denver City, as of 1613Z. Thick overcast throughout the mid-levels will restrict diabatic heating, with only a marginal uptick in high temperatures. Highs are expected to peak near 10 degrees for most of the CWA, with the exception of the far southern TX PH where highs will remain in the single-digits. Winds will gradually diminish by this evening as the post-frontal pressure gradient weakens and the 1030 mb Arctic surface high rotates southward into W TX. However, with temperatures this cold, even a 10 mph wind will result in wind chill values below zero deg F area-wide. Wind chill value as of 1613Z were between -10 and -15 deg F for most of the CWA.

The shortwave trough will eject over northern Mexico and into the TX Big Bend tonight, with a belt of intense divergence overspreading the southern Great Plains as a 300 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt emerges over the CWA. Irrotational wind vectors will enlarge as the base of the trough approaches W TX and due to the CWA becoming positioned beneath the entrance-region to the northern-stream jet streak situated over the central Great Plains. The intensity of the high-level divergence amongst the broadly difluent flow will result in strong ascent that will converge with a mid-level cold front moving southward across the central Great Plains. The columns are already saturated with respect to water and mostly ice; but as the geopotential heights continue to fall due to the ejecting rough, dynamical cooling of the columns will result in the columns becoming completely supersaturated with respect to ice after dark. This leads to an expectation for the production of heavy snow heading into tonight, with a frontal-parallel movement to the band(s), as the band(s) will be contained within the warm-conveyor where a deep DGZ will be present over most of the CWA.

Dendritic growth is expected to be particularly intense; however, the warm nose will remain intact, but below freezing (i.e., cooling below -4 deg C). This will result in heavy riming of large, dendritic aggregates, with dendrites riming and collapsing into large plates before descending into the Arctic layer beneath the warm nose. The combination of the healthy kinematic and thermal profiles bolsters confidence in the potential for heavy snow, with hourly snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour expected within the core of the band(s). Whiteout conditions may occur across some locales tonight in congruence with the snowfall rate maxima. Storm total snow accumulations have been raised, primarily for the far southern TX PH, which is where the highest confidence is for prolonged, heavy snow tonight. Snow accumulations between 4-8 inches are forecast for the southern South and Rolling Plains, 6-10 inches for the remainder of the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far southern TX PH; and localized amounts may near 12 inches across the far southern TX PH through sunrise Sunday. Snow will taper off after sunrise as the backside of the trough arrives. Light snow will end Sunday afternoon. Winds will become light and variable Sunday night.

Travel will become difficult or impossible during the height of the storm tonight. Life-threatening travel conditions are expected across the far southern TX PH tonight. Exercise proper precautions against extreme cold and heavy snow should travel be necessary tonight. The risk of becoming stranded tonight is high, especially outside of any town or city limits. Do not underestimate the risk of exposure from being stranded in extreme cold and heavy snow tonight. Emergency services may not be able to reach you if you travel in rural areas.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place over the center of the CONUS through the next week. This will mean the occasional reinforcing shot of cold air will advance southward across the High Plains, keeping temperatures below average through the extended. Temperatures will be particularly cold Sunday night into Monday morning as clearing skies, light winds and a fresh snowpack conspire to provide ideal radiational cooling. The current forecast calls for lows of 0 to -6 degrees areawide, though this may actually be conservative, and we wouldn't be surprised to see some spots touch the negative double digits. Regardless, the bitterly cold temperatures will be hazardous, despite wind under 10 knots, and the Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through midday on Monday. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the middle of the week as downslope surface flow returns through much of that period. Depending on how much snow we get tonight, and how long it takes to melt it, forecast highs may be a bit warm, but currently reflect highs in the mid to upper 20s Monday, with upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Another shot of colder air appears to arrive late week, either Friday or Friday night. This air won't be nearly as cold as what we are currently immersed in, but it will knock highs back into the 30s. A moisture-starved shortwave trough emerging from the Four Corners or Desert Southwest could even bring a brief shot of wintry weather to the region on Friday. Those details will have to be worked out over the coming days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Expecting a deterioration of flight conditions late this evening as sleet and snow showers transition to mostly snow...which may become heavy at times at all three terminals. VSBY should remain IFR while CIGS slowly fall from MVFR to IFR - with both dropping BLO MINS for periods when moderate to heavy snow is falling. Snow rates should begin to diminish by 12Z Sunday morning with gradually lifting VSBY and CIGS, although snow showers may linger through late morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.