textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Thunderstorms remain expected Saturday afternoon. Some storms may produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Heavy rainfall expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Severe storms possible in the Rolling Plains Sunday.

- Dry until Tuesday with potential storm chances each afternoon thereafter, mainly off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Lingering storms propagating along the crest of an upper ridge will continue to weaken and depart from the far SW Panhandle overnight. Low stratus clouds overnight from persistent low-level SE flow will also help to stabilize the environment and a lull in precipitation is expected through Saturday morning. Forcing parameters will improve by afternoon with aforementioned ridge pushed out by a number of potent shortwaves. Latest CAMs indicate an initial line of storms developing near the TX/NM border during the early/mid afternoon hours tracking westward but weakening as they approach I-27. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected after sunset and will continue into early Sunday morning. While this is not the most impressive severe setup we have seen, hazards of wind gusts to 70 mph and up to golf ball sized hail remain possible. Heavy rainfall/flooding will become a threat in the evening, particularly with any storms that are training. These should completely exit the forecast area by sunrise. Skies will clear Sunday with breezy SW winds and highs generally in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An upper low will become partially cutoff from the main flow over southern Nevada on Monday. Much of the forcing however will remain east of the CWA and subtle height rises will bring high temperatures up a few degrees, although it will be a fairly similar day to Sunday overall. The same general pattern will persist from Tuesday all the way into next weekend with SW flow aloft and a series of embedded shortwaves moving through the area. This will likely bring daily storm chances thereafter, mainly off the Caprock. Specific details will become clearer in time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus are expected at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, through the late morning hours before lifting to VFR. South winds will also become breezy, with gusts to 25 kt becoming common this afternoon at all terminals. TSTM potential will increase quickly after 21Z, as an organizing complex of TSTMs develops near the NM state line and moves east throughout the evening and night. Severe-caliber TSTMs are expected, with surface wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and hail up to two inches in diameter surface-to-aloft possible at all terminals. TEMPO groups have been assigned to reflect the higher confidence in timing of TSTMs. TSTM potential will end from west-to-east, with lingering showers into Sunday morning. Low CIGs will return to all terminals following the TSTMs tonight.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.