textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue each afternoon through Wednesday, especially on the Caprock.

- Cooler temperatures arrive late Wednesday through Thursday, with a light freeze possible early Thursday morning over the SW TX Panhandle.

- Warmer temperatures return Friday into the weekend precipitation chances remaining near zero into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Low-amplitude upper ridging continues over the region today ahead of a cutoff low over CA and a deeper upper low over southern Canada. Plentiful moisture above about 600mb is contributing to quite a bit of high level cloud cover which will persist through the rest of the day. At the surface, a ~995mb surface low will steadily transit eastward over the TX Panhandle this afternoon and into NW OK by this evening, resulting in the continuation of relatively strong WSW breezes and elevated fire danger across the forecast area, with the downslope flow also contributing to very warm highs today in the upper 80s to low 90s. A diffuse dryline will also take shape over the SE TX Panhandle and eastern portions of the Rolling Plains this afternoon, with some very modest surface confluence and a small disturbance beneath the ridge aloft supporting a brief window for an isolated storm or two in the Childress vicinity this afternoon and evening. Although a deep and dry sub-cloud layer could support potential for strong wind gusts with any storms, this threat will be brief with any storm activity quickly exiting to our east this evening. Tonight, west winds will stay relatively breezy as a surface trough axis remains in place over the region, which will contribute to a dry and very mild overnight period with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

On Tuesday, the above-mentioned cutoff low over CA will begin to phase with the broader upper trough axis associated with the Canadian low, resulting in a shift to stronger southwest flow aloft and modest height falls over our region. There will be two competing surface features in our vicinity Tuesday: first, a slow-moving backdoor cold front progged to drift into our northeastern zones, and second, a relatively strong lee surface trough developing over eastern NM which will bring strong westerly breezes to most of the Caprock. This will result in a very warm afternoon with elevated to near-critical fire danger over the Caprock and southern Rolling Plains, with slightly cooler conditions over the SE TX Panhandle. High level cloud cover will continue to be rather abundant, but a dry forecast is favored on Tuesday given a lack of forcing for ascent and very dry low levels.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

By midweek, a large-amplitde positively tilted upper trough axis is progged to be in place over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. The backdoor front mentioned above will get a reinforcing boost on Wednesday as a ~1020mb surface high descends southward over eastern CO. Our current expectation is for dry westerlies to persist over the Caprock through most of the day on Wednesday, with FROPA likely occurring from north to south during the late afternoon and evening hours. This results in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding temperatures on Wednesday, with highs in the 70s currently favored over northern zones and highs near 80 farther south, but these may need to be revised downward if frontal progression is faster than anticipated. Some model solutions depict a fair bit of low cloud cover developing Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, especially over the southern TX Panhandle where some very modest isentropic lift may support some light rain showers. However, better lift and deeper moisture will remain well to our north, so measurable rainfall appears unlikely Wednesday night.

Gusty post-frontal north winds Wednesday night will weaken and become much lighter by Thursday morning as cool surface ridging moves overhead. Chilly temperatures are expected to start out on Thursday with morning lows mainly in the 30s to low 40s. There could even be a light freeze over the SW TX Panhandle, but low cloud cover should mitigate the threat for a larger freeze overall. Otherwise, temperatures will recover into the 70s by Thursday afternoon as skies clear and winds return to a more SSW direction. Much warmer temperatures will then make a comeback Friday into the weekend as southwesterly surface flow persists along with modest midlevel height rises. With cyclonic flow aloft progged to remain in place to our north and east, the pattern will be unfavorable for any widespread precipitation across the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR will continue through the period. Expect west-southwesterly breezes around 15-25G35KT to continue at all sites through the evening, before calming to around 10-15KT overnight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.