textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening.

- A few storms may be severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph possible today.

- Hot and breezy weather is expected through the weekend with slight chances of storms off the caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue to look possible this afternoon although scattered haboobs would be a better description. Water vapor imagery currently shows a weak shortwave directly overhead which will bring weak subsidence in its wake for a brief period this afternoon. A more subtle shortwave farther west will quickly approach the area later in the afternoon bringing at least some weak large scale ascent. Upper level winds will be increasing through the afternoon as an upper level jet streak at 250mb moves over Far West Texas. Overall flow through the atmospheric column will be anemic except for the upper levels which will keep any storms from becoming organized. Model soundings show an extreme inverted-V profile today with cloud bases somewhere around 10-15kft. Lapse rates in the boundary layer will become super-adiabatic this afternoon with very steep mid-level lapse rates due to some weak cooling of the mid- levels. This will allow parcels some very weak instability with forecasted CAPE values on the order of 100-300 J/kg. Isolated convection is expected to initiate in eastern New Mexico before advecting into West Texas. The first batch of convection looks to enter the area between 20 and 21Z and slowly move eastward through the late afternoon and early evening. As convection moves farther to the east, it will encounter a more harsh environment in the form of increased capping. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon will climb into the upper 90s on the caprock and lower 100s off the caprock which will be near record values.

Very hot temperatures will continue for Friday with renewed chances for isolated thunderstorms but with this convection favoring areas off the caprock. Friday will see the benefit of increased large scale ascent with a weak short wave approaching the area during the afternoon hours. The aforementioned upper level jet streak moving over Far West Texas today will increasingly affect the region tomorrow bringing upper level divergence to areas off the caprock. Forecast sounding profiles for Friday are nearly identical to today. A surface cyclone will sweep across the Texas Panhandle dragging a dryline with it into Oklahoma and North Texas. Near record temperatures will again be possible Friday afternoon with temperatures approaching heat advisory criteria off the caprock.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The long term will see a typical spring like pattern involving a sloshing dryline each day through at least Monday. Long wave troughing in the western CONUS from Saturday through Monday and southwest flow aloft will give rise to surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies each afternoon. The dryline will likely mix east each afternoon somewhere off the caprock leaving at least a portion of the FA within the more moist near surface air. Although large scale ascent will be lacking through this time period, the presence of the dryline will favor at least slight chances of convection each afternoon off the caprock. Model differences start to become significant around Tuesday of next week with the ejection of the western CONUS trough. A cold front can be expected next week anywhere from late Monday through Wednesday on the timing. Whenever this front does push through the area it will bring a break from the extreme heat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Complex of thunderstorms is moving through the terminals at the time of this discussion. We're predominantly dealing with a severe downburst wind event. Underflight of virga strongly discouraged given the thermal energy profiles. Expected copious low level turb with this activity. Activity should largely be east of the area by later this evening with another round possible Friday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>043.