textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms today, with possible severe storms mainly over the southern Rolling Plains.

- Quiet conditions from Monday through the remainder of week.

UPDATE

Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Updated to add areas of fog for most areas this evening and overnight, before improving after midnight from W-E with the passage of a Pacific cold front. Storm-wise, we'll likely cancel the SVR 638 ahead of schedule once current storms become more elevated and lose their intensity which appears to be happening ahead of schedule as of this writing.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A upper cutoff low will track across the Four Corners region today. This will put portions of our area in the prime PVA region downstream of its axis. Radar already indicates widespread shower activity across the area. As a low-level jet increases in magnitude this afternoon, further lift will potentially lead to the development of severe thunderstorms, particularly over the southern Rolling Plains where PWAT values look to exceed one inch. Steering flow will be relatively fast moving, however given the setup with mostly unidirectional flow at all levels, a few training thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and thus heavy rain/localized flooding are a threat along with quarter-sized hail. Any severe storms should commence later this afternoon and persist into the evening. That all said, severe weather should be mostly confined to this aforementioned area. Otherwise showers and non-severe storms are expected for the rest of the CWA over the same time period. All precipitation should be over by around midnight, with skies clearing west to east overnight. Lows will fall into the 30s to the west where cloud cover will be less, and in the upper 40s off the Caprock clouds will be more stubborn to move out before sunrise.

As the upper low tracks into the Rockies, weak lee cyclogenesis will occur and a surface low will develop to our north on Monday. Nearly due westerly downsloping winds and abundant sunshine will bring a return to above-average temperatures, with highs near 70 off the Caprock and mid 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A generally uneventful week remains expected. An upper trough will descend into the northern Great Plains by Tuesday and its associated surface cold front will move across the area during the day. Winds will switch to the NE by afternoon, however highs will only be around 3-5 degrees cooler than Monday. Coolest temperatures will occur Wednesday with the colder airmass settling in despite surface winds gradually switching back to a southerly direction. Highs will only generally reach the mid 50s. Weak ridging and continued southerly flow Thursday and Friday will bring a return of above- average temperatures into the mid-to-upper 60s. A trailing trough may bring a more active pattern next weekend, however long-range models currently indicate much of the associated precipitation remaining off to our east at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Widespread stratus this hour of MVFR and VFR varieties is likely to collapse to IFR or lower this evening from W-E with the passage of a few SHRA and TS. Dense fog is also possible, but opted to keep visbys around 2SM until trends show otherwise. As a cold front glides east after midnight, fog and stratus will clear to VFR ahead of breezy WNW winds developing by late morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.