textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Cooler and cloudy conditions expected on Monday behind a cold front.

- Precipitation chances this week, mainly off the Caprock.

- Fluctuating temperatures with possible fire weather concerns Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A minor break from the very warm temperatures will occur on Monday. A cold front had moved through the area late Sunday evening ushering in these cooler temperatures along with breezy northeasterly winds. Winds will diminish by sunrise as the modest 3-4mb/3hr pressure rises subside. Although surface conditions will continue to dry out through the overnight hours, moisture above the shallow cool air will create low stratus for much of the day on Monday. Fog is not expected across the region on Monday morning. Any fog would most likely be across the Permian Basin closer to the leading edge of the frontal boundary. Moist isentropic ascent above the cooler air mass, roughly in the 290-300K layers, will contribute to the persistent stratus. Stratus will prevail over the Rolling Plains for a longer period of time contributing to the coolest forecast temperatures across the FA for Monday. Surface return flow will begin as early as Monday afternoon with surface winds swinging around to the southeast to south in response to an upper level short wave moving across the Intermountain West. Chances for fog will be increased on Tuesday morning with the upward flux of low level moisture into the area.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An upper trough will move over the Rockies late Monday into Tuesday. Its associated surface low will deepen over northeastern New Mexico through the day, bringing breezy SW winds sustained around 15-20 mph to the entire area. This will likewise lead to well- above average temperatures again in the low-to-mid 80s. Combined with single digit humidities near the TX/NM border, elevated to critical fire weather concerns appear likely, with the far SW Panhandle seeing the greatest threat. A stray shower or thunderstorm remains slightly possible in the Childress area during the afternoon, however much of the precipitation will remain east of the CWA. A cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will veer northward and diminish Wednesday afternoon. As such, temperatures will fall generally into the mid 70s. A deep trough will dig into the Rockies through Thursday leading to the development of a ~995 mb surface low over SE Colorado. Breezy south winds will return, along with highs in the 80s. Again, greatest fire weather concerns look to occur over the far SW Panhandle. Late-day showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly off the Caprock should the current model trends hold. Forcing will increase with a low-level jet along with the PVA downstream of the trough axis. GFS SBCAPE currently shows around 1500 J/kg, however it remains too early to determine specific storm impacts. Another upper low will become cutoff and quickly track southward on Saturday. There remains significant model disagreement on what will become of it thereafter, however it may bring additional precipitation chances Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Current VFR CIGS over KCDS are expected to drop into MVFR later this morning and move into the KLBB and KPVW terminals. These CIGS will likely persist into the afternoon hours and not dissipate until late afternoon. There is a slight chance that these CIGS will dip down into IFR territory but chances are low at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.