textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A complex of thunderstorms will move across portions of the Caprock through the early morning hours Thursday.

- The severe weather threat is low, with heavy rainfall garnering a risk for localized flash flooding through sunrise Thursday, especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Cooler temperatures and daily storm chances will continue through the weekend, before drier and warmer conditions return next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Thursday evening) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a convoluted, convectively-contaminated pattern exists, with a compact MCV that was embedded within the right-entrance region to the 250 mb jet streak branching into the northern Great Plains. Farther southwest, the base of a broad, weak trough was digging into Baja Sur; and mid-level flow was in a substantially dampened state due to the western periphery of the large-scale, subtropical ridge eclipsing W TX and due to the effects of convective contamination aloft. The leading edge of a shortwave perturbation was analyzed by the 04/00Z RAOB from MMCU and is also evident on water-vapor imagery, and will remain south of the CWA throughout the rest of tonight before emerging over W TX Thursday afternoon as the upstream trough ejects eastward into northern Mexico and southwestern TX. A loosely-organized MCS was ongoing across northeastern NM, with a modest forward-propagation component to its overall movement towards the southeast, or along the diffuse thickness gradient. The 04/00Z RAOBs from WFOs AMA and MAF observed a weak, low-level jet at 20 kt and 10 kt, respectively; and while it was weak, it prevailed from the south at AMA and was backed towards the southeast farther south at MAF. These observations cement the western periphery of the larger-scale 850 mb ridge that is currently centered over the OH River Valley. Therefore, the synoptic-scale background will remain favorable for MCS maintenance into the early morning hours Thursday, where isolated to perhaps widely-scattered instances of flash flooding are expected through the predawn hours, primarily to the west of I-27 and north of the HWY-114 corridors.

At the surface, no synoptic fronts were present, with the CWA remaining with a very broad and open warm sector. Winds were backed towards the southeast area-wide, and continued to advect a plume of lower 60 degree dewpoints northwestward. An outflow boundary that was generated by clusters of thunderstorms across the Rolling Plains earlier this afternoon continues to propagate westward across the Caprock, and is approaching the HWY-385 corridor as of 0225Z. This outflow boundary will continue to propagate westward as it becomes trapped within the decoupling boundary-layer, and is expected to interact/collide with the MCS propagating southeastward out of the higher terrain of eastern NM in a couple of hours. The resultant upward forcing of stable air will allow parcels to penetrate through the mid-level subsidence observed by the 04/00Z RAOB from WFO AMA and keep the MCS-related outflow/gust front rooted to the leading edge of the convection as it begins to enter the far southwestern TX PH towards midnight CDT.

As the MCS moves onto the Caprock, the reservoir of lower 60 degree dewpoints and related warm theta-e advection amidst modest inflow will focus the greatest potential for localized flash flooding focused across the far southwestern TX and northwestern South Plains through about 04/08-09Z. The forward propagation of the MCS will offset a more-substantial risk for flash flooding, especially as the leading outflow boundary eventually detaches from the convection and accelerates southeastward ahead of it; however, initial interactions from the westward propagating outflow boundary may generate some cellular training. Due to the limited spatiotemporal window for flash flooding late tonight into early Thursday morning, a Flash Flood Watch will not be issued. The MCS will eventually encounter increasingly stable air towards dawn, with lingering showers and storms becoming disorganized and nixing any addition potential for flash flooding. The severe weather risk is low for the rest of tonight, but mixtures of heavy rain and small hail will be common through the first half of the predawn hours. PoPs are largely confined to the Caprock through sunrise, as the significant effects from convective overturning will keep the Rolling Plains far too stable for MCS maintenance nor additional development of storms.

The potential for storms Thursday remains a bit unclear, mainly due to the degree of convective overturning from the overnight MCS that will have affected portions of the Caprock. The leading shortwave trough emerging from the closed low rotating into northern Mexico is forecast to eject into southwestern TX Thursday afternoon, with the bulk of the moist, isentropic ascent displaced well to the south of the CWA. Residual cloud debris through anvil-level will gradually erode throughout the day Thursday, with highs forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer than today as the airmass finally recovers by the mid-afternoon hours. Leeward pressure falls generated by a shortwave trough pivoting across the north-central Great Plains will also veer the southeasterly winds to a more-poleward direction, and possibly slightly west of due south. Given the gradual recovery to the airmass, the weakening of MLCINH by peak heating, and the presence of lingering outflow(s), it appears that isolated storms may develop across portions of the CWA Thursday afternoon. Slight chance PoPs (15-20 percent) have been maintained, with prospects for storms dwindling after dark Thursday. The potential for severe weather and flash flooding is low Thursday.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Not much of a change to note to the extended forecast package with the main theme still being the chances for daily afternoon precipitation and "cooler" high temperatures through the weekend, before drier and hot conditions return early next week. The upper level low is expected to become centered across Far West Texas by the start of the extended, with guidance in better agreement with the evolution of this system, ejecting northeast through the FA through the weekend. Mid to upper level moisture will begin to increase as this system inches closer as southwest flow transports monsoonal moisture into the region. Saturday looks to bring the best chances for precipitation as the upper level low centers itself over the West Texas region with the associated H5 50+kt jet streaks positioned just to our south. Once again, the severe threat remains low with the main threat being the potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns given the deep moisture present. Given there is still a bit of uncertainty amongst the global models and regional models, with the NAM being a bit slower compared to the the ECMWF and GFS, confidence is still fairly low in regards to precipitation chances. Will opt to maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being until confidence increases. Turning into early next week, an upper level ridge will build back in while it amplifies northward across the Plains. As a result, height and thickness will begin to increase leading to a much warmer and drier week ahead.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through most if not all of this TAF period. As of 05z a line of TSRA stretching from KCVS to near KAMA is moving slowly south-southeastward, but it is uncertain whether this convection will keep progressing or if it will dissipate before reaching the terminals. For now, will maintain a PROB30 at all sites overnight until the convective evolution becomes clearer, and amendments should be expected. If TSRA do indeed impact the terminals, visibility may briefly fall to IFR with wind gusts near or above 30 kt. Otherwise, expect generally dry conditions and VFR later this morning before another potential round of isolated convection this afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.