textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Much cooler with shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday.

- Hotter and drier mid-week followed by modest cooling and returning thunderstorm chances late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Saturday brought a hot day, with locations across the South Plains topping out in the middle and upper 90s. A few spots across the southeast Texas Panhandle even briefly touched the triple digits. Thankfully, a cold front will bring a substantial cool down for the second half of the weekend. As of late Saturday evening, the front was making its way southward through the central Texas Panhandle, and when aided by convective outflows from storms along and in advance of the front, the effective front will continue its trek into and through much of the South/Rolling Plains through early Sunday morning. Forcing along and above the frontal zone, in combination with an increasingly moist troposphere and a weak embedded mid-level disturbance, will support improving rain/storm chances along and behind the surface front/outflow. A modest southerly LLJ will veer through early Sunday, which when coupled with the diurnal minimum in instability, make the late-night into Sunday morning rain/storm coverage less certain. Regardless, most guidance supports at least scattered convection, favoring our northern zones, though 12Z Sunday. The better rain chances will expand southward over the remainder of our CWA through Sunday morning. The greatest risk with the overnight and Sunday morning activity will be locally heavy rain, thanks to efficient rain rates within the high-PWAT air, though gusty outflow winds and perhaps a few pockets of small hail could accompany any stronger cores.

The best thunderstorm chances will shift south of the FA by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, tied to the surface front which will stretch from the Permian Basin into the Big Country. Additional storms will form over the higher terrain of New Mexico, and with the mid-level flow veering west-northwesterly, we'll have to see if any of this activity can organize and maintain itself long enough to make it into our northwestern/western zone late Sunday evening/night. Guidance is mixed on this possibility, and with relatively low-end deep-layer shear and meager instability thanks to the cooler air, confidence is not too high on this. That said, locations near the TX/NM line will have the best chance of experiencing the late night convection.

Widespread and persistent cloud cover, along with areas of rain, will keep temperatures from moving much on Sunday, with highs 15-25 degrees cooler than on Saturday. Most locations, other than the far southern zones, will likely see highs in the 70s. A cool June night will follow, with lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s on the Caprock and lower to mid-60s in the Rolling Plains.

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist into early next week. This pattern will support at least a chance of evening/overnight convection moving out of New Mexico into our western/northwestern zone, though relatively cool conditions continuing into Monday will tend to limit the instability available to maintain the storms.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A warming and drying trend will follow on Tuesday as southerly winds and plentiful sunshine return to the region. High temperatures will rebound close to average, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thereafter, Wednesday still looks like it will be hottest day in the upcoming week as drier air and subtropical ridging aloft support widespread triple digit heat. A shortwave cruising across the Midwest, embedded within the southern flank of a broad trough/low, will send the next cold front into the region on Thursday. This front will supply modest cooling while also renewing thunderstorm chances locally, despite minimal to no upper level support. The front will begin to wash out on Friday, with hotter conditions expected to start next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The cold front is currently positioned across northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling plains, tracking southward. Northerly winds behind the front have been sustained around 15-20G30KTs. These winds will calm slightly through the morning to around 15KTs at all terminals. Low stratus has also been detected moving into portions of the region, expecting all terminals to drop to IFR just after 12Z. There is a chance ceilings will lift at KCDS this afternoon, however KPVW and KLBB are expected to remain socked in. As for precipitation, a few showers will linger in the vicinity of KLBB this morning, although there is low confidence in timing. Additionally, there is low confidence in higher terrain storms moving into KPVw late this evening through the overnight hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.