textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening. Gusty winds and localized heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms, though most spots will remain dry.

- Cooler temperatures and better (25-50%) storm chances expected Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures will continue through much of next week with low (15-30%) thunderstorm chances daily.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The upper high is currently centered over the Four Corners and will slowly drift northward through the evening before settling over the Northern Plains and Central Rockies by Sunday afternoon. A leftover MCV from last night's convection continues to drift southeastward across the South Plains into the southern Rolling Plains while also gradually dissipating. Earlier thinking was the remnant MCV could be a focus for general convective development late this afternoon and evening, but this is looking less likely. Overall storm chances and confidence in development is low, but both satellite and radar are showing the formerly stationary front pushing southward across our northeastern zones. Most models have been using this as the basis for convective development this evening. Overall coverage within the models is still meager at best given the overall low upper support, but vis satellite shows CU beginning to develop along this boundary. Given this plus good surface moisture, a mention of slight chance PoPs has been added to the northern half of the FA starting at 00Z. While chances are low for any storm that does develop to become severe, a few could produce strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Better storm chances return to the region Sunday. The aforementioned upper high will settle well to our north and place the region under easterly surface flow. This will not only help increase the overall chance for precip but also help cool temps slightly with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. The main source for surface convergence will be left remnant surface boundaries and the persistent stationary front with upper lift coming from weaknesses rotating around the southern edge of the upper high. The areas that will have the best chances for convection will be determined by where the best surface convergence is located.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The forecast for mid to late week will be very much similar to Sunday. Models are beginning to keep the upper high across the Northern Plains through the end of the week as opposed to Friday's runs which brought the upper high back to our west. If this is the case, then we will see highs remain in the 80s and low 90s through the end of the week vs highs warming back to near 100. Daily diurnal storm chances will also result from the current pattern. General convection is expected, but some storms could produce gusts in excess of 60 mph.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail most of the period. However, TSRA is possible at/near any of the terminals from 00-03 UTC, with the best chance at KPVW. KCDS will see a chance of TSRA overnight into Sunday morning. TSRA chances will likely develop Sunday afternoon at KLBB and KPVW, although confidence is too low in the timing and extent of the activity to include in the TAF at this time. Light south to east surface winds are expected in the absence of t-storm activity.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.