textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- A few isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon and again on Tuesday, mainly along and east of the I-27 corridor.

- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday and again Friday.

- Elevated to near critical fire danger will continue each day this week, especially on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows fast zonal flow aloft in place over most of the CONUS which has resulted in a similar surface pattern compared to yesterday. A broad lee surface trough in eastern CO will gradually migrate eastward through the rest of today, which will in turn sharpen a dryline near the I-27 corridor over the next several hours. West of the dryline, modest west winds and humidity values near 10 percent will result in elevated to near critical fire danger this afternoon and evening. In contrast, dewpoints are progged to remain near 50 degrees east of the dryline. With daytime highs reaching the low 90s, convective temperatures will be within reach, and our current expectation is for a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms to develop after about 4 PM along or just east of the I-27 corridor. Despite respectable moisture in the midlevels, the subcloud layer will be nearly 4-5km deep, so measurable precipitation is unlikely with this activity and individual updrafts are expected to struggle to maintain themselves especially given very weak surface confluence. That being said, given such large surface T/Td spreads, a few strong wind gusts could materialize beneath any longer-lived storm cells. Any convection will then fade quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Winds tonight will remain on the breezy side as surface troughing persists over southwest KS, with the southerly component continuing to transport plenty of shallow low level moisture into our area. A mild overnight period is therefore expected with lows only falling into the mid 50s to low 60s by sunrise. Tuesday will again evolve very similarly to today, although with the dryline eventually settling farther east, likely just off the Caprock. This will occur as surface troughing shifts southward over the TX Panhandle ahead of a weakening cold front, which will allow for stronger westerly flow and near critical fire danger along and west of I-27 Tuesday afternoon. Along and east of the dryline, we expect isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop as convective temperatures are reached Tuesday afternoon. However, there is some concern that a capping inversion at the base of a robust EML may limit storm coverage and longevity, in addition to relatively weak surface confluence along the dryline. Even so, the potential is there for a few strong wind gusts especially off the Caprock before activity diminishes by late Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

On Wednesday, flow aloft will increase as a relatively potent shortwave disturbance quickly moves over the Four Corners and out over the southern plains states. This feature will induce a strong surface response with a surface low progged to rapidly deepen over southeast CO during the day, which will drive a modified Pacific front eastward over our area by Wednesday afternoon. Winds are likely to be solidly breezy to low end windy on Wednesday with most models indicating the surface low will deepen to 995mb or less. The upper wave will bring with it plentiful mid and upper level moisture along with rather strong forcing for ascent. However, the Pacific front will sweep most low level moisture to our east, and as a result any precipitation on Wednesday will likely take the form of scattered fast-moving elevated rain showers. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening off the Caprock, but severe convection currently looks likely to remain well to our east.

Weak ridging aloft will bring one day of benign weather on Thursday before rain chances return on Friday. Southwest flow aloft will allow for another dryline-type surface pattern Friday ahead of a cold front set to arrive sometime Friday night into Saturday. Specifics are uncertain at this lead time, but most locations along and east of I-27 currently look to have decent potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday or Friday night ahead of drier and cooler weather for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

SVR TSTMs will affect KLBB for the next 60-90 minutes, with variable gusts near 50 kt and IFR visibility. Isolated storms may affect KPVW within the next 60 minutes. An organizing band of storms is forecast to pass north of KCDS, and trends will be monitored for a near-term update to the TAF, as conditions are forecast to remain VFR outside of TSTMs. The TSTM potential will end at all terminals by dusk, with a return to VFR thereafter while winds remain breezy overnight. Storm chances are forecast to return to all terminals by the end of the TAF period.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.