textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening especially to the east of I-27.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue over the next several days.

- Stronger breezes could result in elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Upper air analysis highlights mainly northerly flow aloft in place over the region today, with an increase in midlevel moisture also noted as evidenced by scattered morning shower activity in vicinity of the Red River. A diffuse surface trough axis is also in place roughly along a line from near Amarillo towards Childress, and this troughing is progged to drift slowly southward through this afternoon and serve as a focus for thunderstorm development after about 3 PM. Most model solutions agree that storm coverage will be higher today than was observed yesterday, given the more plentiful moisture in place aloft along with large-scale support of a few modest shortwave disturbances and some jet-level difluence visible on water vapor imagery just to our northeast. After initially developing over the SE TX Panhandle, scattered outflow-propagating storms are expected to move south-southwestward through the rest of the afternoon and evening, although REFS/HREF probs generally keep the highest rain chances to the east of I-27. A couple of severe storms are certainly possible today, given very steep low level lapse rates and slightly improved deep-layer shear compared to days past. Very strong wind gusts and some large hail may occur with the strongest activity, as well as brief downpours.

Regarding temperatures, most areas east of I-27 will exceed 105 degrees both this afternoon and again on Sunday as the ridging aloft slowly shifts eastward, with highs near 110 expected over the SE TX Panhandle. As such, Heat Advisories remain in effect for roughly the eastern half of our forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. Storm chances trend much lower for Sunday as the upper high pushes our plume of moisture mainly to our east, although a stray storm or two may still develop Sunday afternoon over the southern TX Panhandle.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Monday is still on track to be the hottest day of the upcoming week as the core of the ~596dam H5 ridge centers directly overhead. Highs near or just above 105 degrees are likely on the Caprock, with temperatures currently forecast to reach as high as 113 degrees over the SE TX Panhandle and adjacent Rolling Plains. Models have trended a bit faster with the southward retreat of the upper high Monday evening, with some shortwave energy possibly bringing a few late evening storms to the southern TX Panhandle, although a dry forecast is favored at the moment. Temperatures will remain well above normal Tuesday through late week, but will be a bit cooler compared to the intense heat of early week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both favor a suppression of the upper ridge farther to our southwest midweek and beyond, with the resulting northwest flow aloft resulting in a more favorable setup for daily evening storm chances during the Tue-Fri timeframe. However, it is still too early to say with much confidence whether any beneficial rainfall will occur with this pattern shift.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. Check density altitude. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms through 06Z at all terminals. There is uncertainty on timing and coverage of storms and a mention will be left out of this TAF cycle, with the TAF amended as needed.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044.