textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances will continue to increase early Friday morning and persist through Friday evening for the entire region.

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding during this time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rain showers have struggled to get going this evening. There have been some which have mostly been confined to Crosby, Garza, and eastern Lubbock counties. The first round of showers to move through were quickly outran by outflow. This second round has lasted longer but is still not widespread in coverage. The bulk of upper lift is still over northern Mexico and is expected to spread northeastward through the early morning hours and should expand shower coverage. CAMs are mostly agreeing with this assessment. While some showers will be likely to produce heavy rainfall, the higher amounts previously expected are less likely to happen given this first round of precip was lackluster. Despite this, we will keep the Flood Watch going as localized street flooding will still be possible given high available moisture and PWATs averaging around 1.5 inches.

Rain will continue on and off through much of today and become more light and stratiform like through the day. Precip will slowly taper off from west to east during the evening into early Saturday morning as the axis of the upper trough pushes to our east. The combination of overcast skies and rain will keep highs on the cool side today, only reaching into the upper 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Some model guidance is still showing some lingering precipitation off the caprock through Saturday morning. However, this is most likely low stratus and possibly drizzle. Short wave ridging will return late Saturday through the day on Sunday in advance of the next trough digging into the western CONUS. The next short wave trough will track to the four corners by Monday morning providing another shot of precipitation from late Sunday through Monday. Forcing associated with this short wave looks to be briefer than what is expected for Friday but also may be stronger. The other notable feature in the long term forecast will be a strong cold front currently forecast to move through on Tuesday morning. Surface winds will pack a punch behind this front but temperatures don't appear to be significantly affected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate through the rest of tonight as a broad shield of precipitation overspreads the region. CIGs will fall to IFR at all TAF sites within the next several hours, with light visibility restrictions from RA/BR also expected through Friday morning. A period of heavier precipitation is likely during the hours surrounding sunrise, which may bring periods of LIFR CIGs/vis especially at KLBB/KPVW. Precipitation will continue through much of the day on Friday, and IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected to persist through the end of the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ021>044.