textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon to 8 pm CDT on Thursday for most of the South Plains of West Texas.

- A cold front Thursday night will bring slightly cooler temperatures on Friday.

- Hot and dry weekend in store, with critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday with strong, westerly winds.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low stratus has cleared the FA leaving us with mostly clear skies and the dryline has moved into our western zones as of noon. We will continue to see the dryline push eastward towards the edge of the Caprock before retreating to the state line later tonight. A very low potential for an isolated storm or two still exists this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Confidence in any convection is low despite ample instability as lift, especially upper lift, will be lacking. Any lift will have to come solely from the dryline itself, and that lift is marginal at best. If a storm does develop it will be very short lived but could produce hail up to one inch in diameter an wind gusts to 60 mph. There is currently no precip mention in the forecast.

A surface low will form within the lee trough across eastern Colorado and western Kansas tonight and will migrate southward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by late Thursday morning. The proximity of the surface low will create breezy conditions especially after the passage of the dryline. Wind speeds will be highest across our northern zones where near but below advisory level speeds will be possible. Much drier air will follow behind the dryline and drop Thursday afternoon RH to the single digits. This will create critical fire weather conditions across much of the FA with extremely critical conditions across our northwestern zones. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Winds will be elevated through early evening before mixing begins to decrease.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A modest cold front will follow Thursday night and result in a slight cool-off for Friday, with high temperatures anticipated to be in the 80s for most. Under broadly cyclonic flow aloft Friday, winds will turn from northerly to easterly and we may see some low-level moisture advect westward along the Red River Valley into portions of the Rolling Plains late Friday, and this could lead to some stratus to start off Saturday as far west as the moisture makes it. However, the shallow moisture will not hold as swift, dry, west-southwest mid-level flow mixes down during the day. Temperatures should quickly rebound in this pattern with afternoon highs ranging from the middle 80s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to the middle 90s in the Rolling Plains. This will also likely result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock Saturday afternoon. The next upper- level shortwave will cross the Southern Rockies on Sunday, with the forecast track bringing West texas underneath a strong mid- level jet. This will lead to deep cyclogenesis across the Southern High Plains and an increase in our southwesterly breezes. Guidance suggests that the wind speeds Sunday afternoon could approach advisory level (30-35 mph sustained with gusts to near 50 mph) with some blowing dust also expected on the Caprock. High temperatures will be well into the 90s for most locations Sunday with some 100s possible in the Rolling Plains. This pattern looks supportive of critical fire conditions across most of the CWA even given some seasonal green-up of fuels.

After that wave passes to our east, we should see some degree of cooling Monday into Tuesday with height falls and perhaps a weak front, although uncertainty in the details begins to increase. The medium range guidance suggests that the next upper-level system will dig a bit farther southward across the western states and that may provide an opportunity for some moisture return and some thunderstorm potential in the Rolling Plains Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR CIGs at CDS are expected to clear to VFR by 18Z. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions to continue through the rest of this afternoon on the Caprock where a Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect. Afternoon humidity will range from around 10-15 percent with west to southwest winds around 15 mph.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday with areas of extremely critical fire weather conditions expected across the southwestern Texas Panhandle. 20 foot wind speeds are expected to be out of the west to southwest around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. The Fire Weather Watch for Thursday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all areas except the southern Rolling Plains where a RFD will likely be needed.

Fire weather concerns will likely remain elevated Saturday and then increase on Sunday as winds strengthen.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ021>036- 039>041.