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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast to develop across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains Friday afternoon and evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to evolve across the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon.

- Hot and breezy weather is expected through Monday, with storm chances in the Rolling Plains and an area-wide fire danger each day.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday morning) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a vertically-stacked cyclone was rotating over Lake Winnepegosis, with a belt of broadly cyclonic flow encompassing the western half of the U.S. due to the persistent split-flow regime. The southern-stream trough was more-broad and centered over the Desert Southwest, with the leading edge of the 250 mb jet streak now over W TX as per the 15/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts. The 15/00Z RAOB from WFO MAF observed 75 kt winds at 250 mb, with WFO AMA observing 55 kt, with a corridor of difluent flow advecting directly over the CWA. Scattered, high-based convection from earlier in the afternoon is beginning to dissipate as of 0210Z, with benign conditions expected for the rest of the night and into the morning hours Friday. Farther southwest, a belt of vigorous and moist, isentropic ascent originating from the far northeastern Pacific Ocean continues to advect over W TX in conjuction with the arrival of the 250 mb jet streak. This corridor of moist, high-level ascent will be maintained through the short-term period as the positively-tilted trough ejects eastward over the southern Rocky Mountains late in the day Friday. Thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast to return Friday afternoon and evening across portions of the Caprock and the Rolling Plains.

At the surface, a convectively-contaminated boundary-layer exists across the Rolling Plains, with winds restoring to the south on the Caprock, as the mesoscale high previously generated from convective clusters has since dissipated. The dryline has since translated westward and is anchored near the NM state line, and will remain stalled throughout the overnight hours. Farther north, the synoptic cold front associated with the decayed, negatively-tilted trough and vertically-stacked cyclone along the SK/MB border was draped across the HWY-400 corridor in southwestern KS and into southeastern CO. The front will continue to sag southward during the nighttime hours, with the front stalling to the north of the CWA and in the TX PH by late Friday morning. As the low-amplitude trough pivots over the southern Rocky Mountains, the dryline will once again propagate eastward into the Rolling Plains, with the potential for a dryline bulge to evolve across the far southeastern TX PH by the mid- afternoon hours as cyclogenesis in the OK/TX PH results in the formation of a triple point. Intense surface heating is expected Friday, with highs peaking in the middle-upper 90s on the Caprock and in excess of 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains as mixing heights ascend into the mid-levels. The superposition of the 250 mb jet streak over the CWA and the ejection of the low-amplitude, shortwave trough will generate a 994-996 mb cyclone across the northern TX PH; and the resultant isallobaric response will result in gradient winds increasing to 20-30 mph as the dryline mixes eastward into the Rolling Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. The very deep boundary-layer mixing, moderately strong winds, and low RH will garner a critical fire weather risk across the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains.

While the dryline will stall east of the Caprock, LCLs/LFCs will be similar to today and rooted above the top of the western edge of the subtropical airmass (that is, above the dryline circulation). As the leading wave of shortwave perturbations emerge over W TX in concert with peak heating, scattered, high-based storms are once again forecast to develop across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains during the afternoon and evening hours Friday. PoPs were once again raised from the dry initialization of the NBM, with a broad brush of 30-40 percent PoPs outlined across the CWA Friday afternoon and evening. Similar to today, damaging wind gusts between 60-70 mph will be the primary hazard, although isolated instances of hail up to quarter size will be possible as the high-based cells cross over the dryline and ingest increasingly buoyant air. Reductions to visibility from blowing dust will be common, particularly on the Caprock. (Some locales observed zero-mile visibility this past afternoon.) Storm chances will wane from west-to-east, with storms dissipating after dark. Southwesterly winds will remain slightly breezy heading into Saturday morning, yielding warm lows area-wide.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The long term will see a typical spring like pattern involving a sloshing dryline each day through at least Monday. Long wave troughing in the western CONUS from Saturday through Monday and southwest flow aloft will give rise to surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies each afternoon. The dryline will likely mix east each afternoon somewhere off the caprock leaving at least a portion of the FA within the more moist near surface air. Although large scale ascent will be lacking through this time period, the presence of the dryline will favor at least slight chances of convection each afternoon off the caprock. Model differences start to become significant around Tuesday of next week with the ejection of the western CONUS trough. A cold front can be expected next week anywhere from late Monday through Wednesday on the timing. Whenever this front does push through the area it will bring a break from the extreme heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the region this afternoon and evening and could affect the terminals. Confidence in timing and location of convection is too low to mention in the TAF at this time, but any storms that affects a terminal has the potential to create brief erratic wind gusts up to 50 knots. Check density altitude.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Modest RH recovery is expected through the predawn hours across the forecast area, peaking near 35 percent along the NM state line to near 50 percent along the 100th meridian. Surface winds will restore to the southwest during the early morning hours following the episode of storms the evening prior, which will keep morning lows on the mild side across W TX, with lows in the middle 70s expected across the Rolling Plains by dawn. Surface winds will remain veered out of the southwest for most of the forecast area today, with wind speeds increasing 20-30 mph amidst hot to very hot surface temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees. Highs are forecast to peak near 104-105 degrees in the Rolling Plains, with RH falling to as low as 8 percent this afternoon. This will result in critical fire weather conditions for the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. In addition to the critical fire weather risk, the dryline is forecast to remain stalled in the Rolling Plains, leading to a risk for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Despite the dryline remaining parked in the Rolling Plains, some storms may also develop on the Caprock and be very-high-based similar to Thursday. Some storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph possible that would result in sudden and erratic changes in direction. Cloud-to-ground lightning may occur in rain-free areas. Winds will remain slightly breezy tonight into Saturday morning while prevailing out of the south-southwest, with RH recovering above 60 percent for the Rolling Plains and most of the Caprock as the dryline retreats westward.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-039>043.