textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Showers and storms increasing in coverage this evening and overnight followed by lingering chances on Saturday.

- Warm temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will result in elevated to critical fire danger for much of next week, especially on Tuesday.

- No precipitation is currently expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Welcome changes are in store for much of the forecast area beginning later this afternoon and especially tonight as some areas see multiple rounds of showers and storms. Water vapor imagery at 11 AM showcased a healthy plume of mid and high-level subtropical moisture streaming over W TX downstream of a potent upper trough crossing Baja California. In the low levels, gulf moisture continued to advect north from the Permian Basin and Concho Valley where dewpoints in the mid 50s were gaining territory. As the trough enters the Desert Southwest this afternoon, upper ridging presently over the Rolling Plains will depart ahead of a belt of stronger 700- 500 mb winds of around 50 and 70 knots, respectively, entering the western South Plains. Combined with adequate surface-based instability fueling MUCAPEs of 400-700 J/kg, the stage should be set for some showers and storms initially with the aforementioned wind maxima and improved height falls. Some moist isentropic ascent is also evident closer to the TX Panhandle this afternoon ahead of the richer plume of gulf moisture, although this appears to become a bigger factor everywhere tonight as a southerly LLJ unfolds and enhances isentropic upglide underneath an increasingly diffluent upper jet. Models overall are in good agreement in depicting various rounds of showers and storms tonight - focused primarily from the southern South Plains into much of the Rolling Plains where locally heavy rain of 1/2 inch or more is most likely along a PWAT axis that grows to between 1.1 and 1.4 inches. Enough CAPE is present in the hail growth layer for some marginally severe hail along with a few severe gusts, but these instances should remain few and far between.

By daybreak Saturday, mid-level dry slotting is expected to shove the back edge of precip off the Caprock making way for some sunshine underneath the core of the upper trough/compact upper low. Although moisture deficits will be growing on Saturday, models continue to depict a healthy cold pocket on the Caprock during peak heating resulting in some healthy lapse rates and decent SBCAPEs for February standards. For this reason, thunder mention was expanded west over much of the Caprock by the afternoon. Forecast soundings (especially off the Caprock where dewpoints are higher) suggest we could see some low-topped storms with small hail and gusty winds before this activity wanes after sunset. Otherwise, breezy W and NW winds will overtake most of the Caprock during the day behind a Pacific cold front that cools highs there into the low/mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

By early Sunday morning, the potent upper low responsible for our unsettled start to the weekend will quickly exit to the east, resulting in a pleasant and warm Sunday across our region as transient upper ridging builds in aloft. The upper air pattern will remain amplified throughout most of the upcoming week as mid/upper troughing deepens over the western third of the CONUS, resulting in a multi-day stretch of strong southwest flow aloft over West TX. Flat ridging aloft will also remain in place over MX through this period, resulting in generally neutral mid/upper level height tendencies and a corresponding continuation of well above normal high temperatures throughout the week. Several strong shortwave disturbances are progged to track through the belt of southwest flow aloft during the week, but current consensus indicates these features will track too far to our north to result in any meaningful chances for precipitation across West TX throughout the end of next week. Instead, we expect consistently breezy to windy conditions each day from Tuesday through Thursday as a series of potent surface lows deepen over CO/KS. At least elevated fire weather conditions are expected each of these afternoons, with critical fire weather conditions likely in tandem with the period of strongest winds on Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Showers are expected to move into the area later this afternoon and will increase in coverage and intensity in the early evening hours with thunder likely. Some uncertainty persists in the exact timing of the heavier convection, but model guidance expects this to primarily occur between 00z and 06z. During heavier convection, MVFR conditions are expected with the potential for intermittent IFR. Light rain will persist until mid-morning when recovery to VFR occurs.

Tomerlin

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.