textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Storms gradually diminish overnight. Additional storms are possible on the Caprock Saturday afternoon and evening (20-30% chance). Storms could produce strong wind gusts Saturday.

- After slightly cooler conditions Saturday (mid 90s), hot weather returns next week (upper 90s to mid 100s). Mostly dry conditions are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Relatively dry low-level profiles Fri evening resulted in a thunderstorm complex producing an expansive cold pool as it tracked from NM into the TX Panhandle and the South Plains, with numerous gusts of 60-75 mph measured by West Texas Mesonet sites across the southern TX Panhandle and western south Plains. Outflow from earlier convection over the Rolling Plains had pushed as far west of Lubbock as of 9pm/02z. A moist airmass was present east of the outflow, with dewpoints generally holding in the mid 60s. These conditions supported a ESE progression of the MCS, with continued severe gusts even after the loss of diurnal heating. However, a gradual weakening trend has finally become apparent, as between 10-1030 PM the mesonet sites were generally gusting in the 40s and 50s (mph). While the severe threat should quickly diminish late this evening, showers and storms may linger well into the overnight hours.

Behind the front and MCS, winds are likely to be ENE Saturday. The post-frontal airmass will also be marginally cooler than previous days, but highs are still expected to be in the 90s on the Caprock, with upper 90s off the Caprock. Similar to today, storms are expected to form along the higher terrain of NM, but upper level steering winds will be more northerly than northwesterly, limiting the extent to which storms move into our forecast area. Nevertheless, the HREF depicts a chance (20-40%) of storms across the western half of the forecast area Saturday PM, mainly west of I- 29. With forecast downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) values once again between 1000-1500 J/kg, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts. There is a marginal risk of severe storms for the far western portions of the forecast area into NM, and this may be expanded if confidence increases that storms will occur further east than the current outlook area. Sunday is expected to be dry, and a tad warmer than Saturday (mid 90s to near 100).

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast at this time, with the main theme still being hot and mostly dry conditions through the week. An elongated upper high is expected to center itself over the desert SW, while occasional disturbances pass north of the ridge onto the central Plains. There ridge is suppressed enough that some of these disturbances could bring precip into the northern portions of the forecast area, but this is not well- captured by the coarser model guidance at this stage, which keep precip confined to the higher terrain of NM. Temps are likely to be hot, with highs near 100 on the Caprock and into the low/mid 100s off the Caprock, which may necessitate more Heat Advisories off the Caprock at times next week. May also need to keep an eye on locally enhanced fire danger on Monday, as SW winds are forecast to be on the breezy side (sustained winds 15-20 mph, gusts 25-30 mph) and minimum RH values fall below 20 percent in the afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Lingering showers are currently to the south of KLBB. They are moving south, therefore are not expected to impact the terminal. VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Northerly winds will continue the rest of the morning, however will gradually shift to the southeast through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances return this evening on the Caprock with the greatest chances along the NM/TX border. Models keep storms to the west of KPVW and KLBB, therefore have kept out of TAF. However, there is a small chance for thunderstorms to impact both terminals this evening. Could see some rogue wind gusts as these storms will have the potential to produce strong outflows.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.