textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly on the Caprock.

- Hot and dry this weekend with possible record highs Saturday.

- Daily thunderstorm chances next week, generally favoring the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Remaining storms are weakening should taper off in the next few hours. A quiet night remains expected with partly cloudy skies and lows ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. An upper ridge building to the west Friday combined with a return to southerly surface flow will cause temperatures to increase by a few degrees from Thursday. Highs will reach either side of 100 for most locations. A weak upper shortwave still looks to move through the area during the afternoon/evening hours. As the cap will be stronger given the aforementioned ridge building, any storms that initiate should remain quite isolated with severe weather being unlikely. Highest chances are expected generally over the western and central South Plains. A hot and dry weekend thereafter remains expected with heights continuing to rise as the center of the ridge moves over the area. Potentially record-breaking highs may occur Saturday with low- to-mid triple-digits for nearly all locations.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Heights will fall on Sunday as the ridge begins to retreat eastward, however high temperatures remain well above average in the mid 90s on the Caprock to low triple-digits continuing off the Caprock. Monday is trending drier models are now indicating a upper low over the northern Great Plains taking a more northeasterly trajectory and deamplifying as it enters Canada. This flow orientation would keep nearly all of the Pacific/monsoonal moisture off to the north and west. Another upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday with a low becoming cutoff and stalling over Oregon through Thursday. As strong ridge over the Southeast will again keep a majority of the moisture to the north and west, however Tuesday evening on the Caprock looks to see the greatest chance of storms at this point before the ridge shifts eastward mid-to-late week. NBM has been retained although it is likely a bit heavy-handed as usual for that time frame, however should start dropping with future forecasts if current trends continue. Temperatures will start slowly dropping each day, potentially into the mid 80s over the far southwest Panhandle towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is a slight chance for -TSRA in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW airports later this afternoon, though confidence remains too low for a TAF mention. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.