textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday evening across portions of the South Plains and far southwest Panhandle.
- Another round of isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday along the NM/TX state line.
- Hot and dry next week.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
The upper ridging will continue to elongate across the southern CONUS through early next week. This will keep conditions dry for the much of the long term forecast. Temperatures remain hot in the upper 90s to triple digits. Currently, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day for the long term forecast. If this trend continues, can expect Heat Advisories for future forecasts. At the moment, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms for the latter half of Sunday for a small portion of Parmer County in the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. The western edge of the upper ridging will reach eastern NM on Sunday. An embedded shortwave will result in thunderstorms developing across central to eastern NM. There is a slight chance these storms could sneak into our northwestern corner of the forecast area. However, models are in disagreement with this evolution. The ECMWF, which tends to have a more wet bias, has precipitation possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle while the GFS, which has a more dry bias, keeps us dry. The models should align better for future forecasts. Check back for updates. An upper pattern change later next week could bring another round or two of thunderstorms with upper ridging amplifying across western CONUS while an upper trough swings across the Midwest.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Isolated storms this afternoon are expected to remain west of the KLBB and KPVW terminals although a stray storm or two could near the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-042>044.
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