textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Cooler temperatures will continue through the work week, before a slight warming trend begins this weekend.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday.

- The severe weather threat remains low, with the main threat being heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening shows much of the Central/Southern Plains entrenched beneath the upper level ridge with the center of the upper high placed over the Upper Midwest. Additionally, we are able to see drier air being transported into areas Off the Caprock from the northeasterly flow aloft. Which has continued to aid in the decrease in precipitation activity across the FA this evening and likely through the overnight. With the better bulk of moisture placed south, across MAF and SJT's area. Therefore, we expect a quiet overnight across the Caprock regions with overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s, mostly clear skies, and light easterly winds.

Tuesday will start with the upper level ridge beginning to be pushed northward as the area of high pressure wobbles over the High Plains. This will be in part to an easterly wave/upper low moving into portions of the ArkLaTX regions from the SECONUS. WV imagery this evening shows a tongue of moisture associated with this disturbances attempting to clip portions of the Rolling Plains, which if this comes to fruition with westerly extent of the disturbance. We could see isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms across the aforementioned area throughout the day Tuesday. Activity will likely be limited, as the FA still remains under the influence of the upper ridge, suppressing the overall precipitation threat. However, minor perturbations wrapping through the flow aloft combined with lingering outflows tracking into the region from activity to our south will serve as a focus for initiation across our area. Activity will likely remain isolated to scattered at best with the severe threat remaining low given weak shear and MLLR. However, MLCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg along with inverted-v profiles on soundings suggest there is a threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts up to 50 mph. Storm motions will be slow and given PWATs will still remain above normal for this time of year, there is a chance for heavy rainfall which could lead to the potential for localized flash flooding concerns across low-lying areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The extended forecast package remains on track, with not much of a change to report in this forecast discussion. The upper level ridge and area of associated high pressure will remain across the High Plains through the work week as a result of a weak easterly wave translating south of the upper high into portions of the Central Texas region. This will support "cooler" temperatures compared to what we saw last week with afternoon highs forecasted in the upper 70s and 80s area-wide through Friday. Low-end precipitation chances will also remain in tact, primarily for our southern counties where moisture transport from the H3 to H7 layer will work its way into the region as it wraps around the mid to upper level low. Coverage looks to increase Thursday and Friday as the plume of moisture transports further northward into the FA as flow becomes more southerly. Given this, NBM widespread slight chance to chance PoPs seem warranted across the area. Similar to previous days, storms that develop will struggle to organize given weak shear and poor lapse rates. However, modest MLCAPE values along with the notable dry-sub cloud layer suggest a few storms could be capable of a strong to marginally severe wind gusts. As well a threat for flash flooding across low-lying areas given weak storm motions and above normal PWATs/Tds for this time of year. Through the weekend, we will begin to see a warmer and drier regime begin to set up across the region as the upper level ridge begins to build back over the western CONUS and influences higher thickness and height values across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR with slim chances for TS near the terminals this afternoon and evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.