textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- A few storms later today and overnight, increasing in coverage by Thursday afternoon. - Slightly cooler Thursday ahead of hot temperatures Friday into the weekend, with record breaking heat possible Saturday.

- Mostly dry Friday and this weekend ahead of unsettled weather next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

We are on cold front watch. Current surface observations indicate the front is sitting across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. The front will continue to slowly push southward towards our forecast area. Models are not handling the timing of the front well. If the front continues its slow track, it should reach the far southern Texas Panhandle by late afternoon to early evening. However, current radar imagery shows storms across southwestern Kansas behind the front. Outflows from these storms could give the front a little extra pushing resulting in it reaching our CWA sooner than expected. Temperatures ahead of the front remain hot with expected highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock to lower triple digits off the Caprock. If the front reaches the forecast area quicker than expected, highs across northern portions of the CWA may be slightly cooler than what is forecast. CAMs continue to indicate chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, however have backed off in coverage. Previous models runs showed isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and behind the front as it stalls partway into the CWA. Current model runs show a few isolated showers developing along the front this evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. At most, we may see some moderate rain and breezy winds.

Thursday looks to have the better precipitation chances. The front along with any outflows is expected to track farther south out of the CWA by late day. Scattered showers and storms are expected to fill in across the region beginning early Thursday morning and expected to continue through the day. Similar to Wednesday, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Heavy rain leading to flooding is also not expected, however this cannot be ruled out especially if a thunderstorm stalls. Sadly, even though scattered storms are expected, not everywhere in the CWA will see precipitation. However, with the precipitation and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will slightly cool with highs in the 90s expected across the region. Storms are expected to clear the region out of the southeast by late Thursday evening.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Thursday night opens with diminishing chances for rain as earlier storms and outflow boundary mergers come to an end. The passage of a weak shortwave trough in NW flow will see fit to bringing us drier conditions for Friday, particularly as H5 heights begin rebounding to 592 dam through Saturday ahead of a sprawling high. This spells hotter temperatures with record highs not out off the table for Lubbock on Saturday until the high center sets its sights for the Deep South early next week. Southwest flow along the back of the departing high will open our door to monsoonal moisture and rain chances beginning Sunday evening and continuing daily through the first half of the week. This theme receives good support from the GEFS and EPS, both of which favor wetting rainfall for the Caprock as PWATs rise to 1/3" to 3/4" above normal. The increased moisture and cloud cover will also help in curbing highs into the lower 90s, although this is still several degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR. Barring a stray SHRA or TS later this afternoon and evening, it appears some activity could reach PVW and CDS after midnight through Thursday morning. This chance remains too uncertain, although after 18Z Thursday the window for TS looks more favorable at all sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.