textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Dry and uneventful weather continues through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A cold front was making steady southward progress through the region late Monday evening, with a period of stronger post-frontal northerly breezes set to continue through the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. Winds will weaken quickly during the afternoon hours as broad surface ridging builds southward, with light winds expected to continue on Tuesday night. Regarding temperatures, even with the passage of the cold front, a lack of any particularly cold air upstream combined with neutral or even slightly positive midlevel height tendencies will result in another mild day with highs Tuesday afternoon near or just above 60 degrees. The mild theme continues into Tuesday night with highs generally in the low 30s ahead of the arrival of our next, more potent cold front early Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

At the beginning of the period, a well-defined Rex Block will remain parked over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and Great Basin, with an amplifying, positively-tilted shortwave trough digging into the southern Great Plains. The base of this shortwave trough is forecast to pivot over W TX, with the corresponding cold front expected to move quickly southward across the CWA Wednesday. Brisk winds are expected post-FROPA, with northerly winds approaching 20 mph for most of the CWA and gusts in the 25-30 mph range. High temperatures were cooled slightly from the NBM, as this front will be of polar origin, although the cP airmass will be moderating substantially as the bulk of the CAA remains east of the CWA, with full insolation also expected. Highs will range from the lower-middle 50s across the Caprock to the middle 50s in the Rolling Plains, with the coolest locales across the northern areas of the Caprock. Winds will taper off after sunset, and become light and variable overnight.

Benign and warmer weather is forecast through the end of the week and into this weekend due to a negatively-tilted shortwave trough over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean impinging on the western tranche of the Rex Block. This will cause the Rex Block to collapse and transition into a low-amplitude, shortwave ridge by the end of the week. The shortwave ridge is forecast to shift eastward into the southern Great Plains over the weekend, with temperatures climbing between 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms Friday and through the weekend. By early next week, there are indications for the decayed low previously associated with the Rex Block to reattain DPVA from a PV anomaly emanating from the exit-region of the quasi-zonal Pacific jet extension. An evolution into a shortwave trough would follow, but where the shortwave trough ejects remains uncertain at this point in time. The position of the evolving shortwave trough will dictate PoPs, in the form of rain showers and even thunderstorms, for early next week. Therefore, the low PoPs generated by the NBM have been left intact with this prognostication due to the low confidence in the synoptic-scale evolution.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Strong northerly winds behind a cold front this morning will decrease through the rest of the morning hours becoming light this afternoon. There exists a very small chance of MVFR CIGS near KCDS early Wednesday morning but chances are too low to mention in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.