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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Warm and breezy Friday, with a slight chance for strong to marginally severe storms across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle during the evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday, with severe storms capable of large hail and strong winds Saturday afternoon, shifting to a heavy rainfall threat overnight Saturday.

- Drying out early next week, before another chance for rainfall next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms continue across southern portions of the southern South Plains late this evening, rapidly decreasing in coverage. We expect coverage to wane through the rest of the night with a relatively quiet night expected across the Caprock regions. Southerly surface flow will continue, aiding in the continuation of increasing low-level moisture, thus we expect low-level stratus to advect northward throughout the night. Coverage in low clouds looks a bit more expansive compared to what we saw last night, creeping into portions of the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Similar to what we saw Thursday, clouds will slowly begin to diminish late morning, despite this upslope flow will continue to aid in rising Tds with dewpoints progged into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, especially for areas east of the I-27 corridor. Southerly winds combined with ridging aloft will keep temperatures similar to previous days, in the lower 80s, although depending on how long clouds linger we could see highs a few degrees cooler than anticipated. Although confidence in that remains too low to warrant any changes from the NBM temperatures outputted.

As far as precipitation goes, the FA will find itself "ridged out" with the ridge axis oriented from the Rockies into the Hill Country by late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Where we expect the ridge to slowly shift eastward Friday. Despite this, influence from the ridge looks to block out much of the upscale lift across the region. However, slight perturbations tracking south and out ahead of the parent low off to the west may track just far enough south to clip portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Additionally, a surface trough across SECO will dive southward while a pseudo dryline shifts eastward Friday afternoon from central NM. Where this dryline and convergence boundary meet will serve as the main point for convective initiation, given the lack of forcing present. Most guidance keeps convection to our north and west, which aligns with the synoptic set-up favoring the overall lift across those aforementioned areas. However, CAM's like the RRFS/HRRR/FV3 are still hinting at the potential for a few thunderstorms clipping the far southwestern Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon. As we heat up through the afternoon, diurnal heating will contribute to boundary layer destabilization, with MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg as MLLR increase to around 7-8 C/km, supporting the potential for strong to marginally severe caliber storms. Thats is, if we see any storms at all enter the FA.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Chances for precipitation will continue through the start of the extended, by late Friday night large scale ascent will begin making its way closer to the region, as a shortwave rounding the base of the upper low centered over the Pacific coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to aid in subtropical moisture transport into the region, especially from the H7 to H3 levels, while southerly flow near the surface does the same with Gulf moisture transport. PWATs will climb above the 90th percentile climatological normal for this time of year, nearing an inch across much of the region. Given the beneficial moisture in place combined with the enhancement of the LLJ overnight Friday into Saturday morning, combined with better forcing for ascent moving into the region, precipitation chances will not only increase but also expand in coverage. Showers and thunderstorms will then clear out of the region Saturday morning, before we expect an additional round to develop Saturday afternoon with the H5 jet setting up near the Caprock region with an area of diffluence spreading across the region. Despite the better forcing and increased moisture in place, Saturday details once again remain a bit unclear amongst much of the guidance. Per usual, the GFS and ECMWF are still hinting at the potential for precipitation while the NAM continues to dry-slot the region entirely. However, as more CAM come in, models like the RRFS and FV3, which have done a very good job at representing storm mode and timeliness recently, depict widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday across the FA.

As mentioned yesterday, even if we have all the factors in place, there will remain a few caveats with precipitation potential Saturday. First being how cloud cover lingering through the early afternoon will play a role in boundary layer destabilization if diurnal heating is limited. Second, how will the effects from overnight and early morning convection play a role in environmental recovery. While lastly, how any outflow boundaries, if any, tracking through the region interfere or enhance convective potential. That being said, if the environment is able to recover swiftly and storms develop, guidance is hinting a primed environment with a small window late Saturday afternoon for severe caliber storms. Solar insolation and high dewpoints in the 60s will favor MUCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg with bulk shear magnitudes around 30 knots support the potential for golfball sized hail and strong winds up to 70 MPH. As we head into the overnight hours Saturday, forecast soundings depict long-skinny CAPE profiles along with a well saturated column of moisture from the surface to upper levels. Seeing this feature on forecast soundings, combined with the expectation of the enhancement of the LLJ Saturday night suggest that storms will have the potential to grow upscale leading to the potential for a heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns. This aligns well with what guidance is putting out, suggesting storms congeal into an MCS Saturday night into Sunday morning. Precipitation will linger through mid-morning Sunday, before drying out through the afternoon with departing system.

Southwest flow aloft will continue early next week, with the upper low off the Pacific coast moving into the Four Corners region Tuesday. Compared to this time yesterday both deterministic and ensemble guidance are hinting at a drier solution with much of the large scale ascent with the system fixated to our east. However, given the run to run difference we will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR will last through most of the overnight hours at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with a deck of low stratus expected to stream northward leading up to sunrise. CIGs will crater to IFR at KLBB and KPVW, with MVFR CIGs at KCDS. Stratus will begin to lift and disperse by 10/18Z at all terminals. Until then, expect LLWS at all terminals, with shear magnitudes near 40 kt as low as 500 ft AGL.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.