textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this morning and afternoon. Some storms could be severe off the Caprock, especially tonight.

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon for the northwest South Plains and far southwest TX Panhandle.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend with milder weather next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

High clouds were on the increase this night ahead of a kissing upper jet over the Four Corners. This jet feature will transition into a broad cyclonic jet structure over our area on Friday as an upper low tracks from Wyoming to South Dakota. In the lower levels, weak lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado has backed our winds south which is pulling rich gulf moisture north. As the morning wears on, a dryline should evolve from about Brownfield Highway to Silverton before mixing partially east through the afternoon. Accompanying this richer moisture will be some low clouds that should prove thickest in the southern Rolling Plains resulting in cooler highs around 80 compared to elsewhere. This moisture advection could also yield some light showers and perhaps storms by late Friday morning into the early afternoon pending a layer of elevated instability residing atop the stratus layer. However, lift is rather subtle and given extensive mid clouds on the Caprock and thick stratus farther east, the chances for sufficient daytime heating to break a sizable cap are not great. Any pockets of clearing east of the dryline could easily change this scenario, but for now NBM's generous daytime PoPs were scaled lower. This story changes Friday night as a cold front sweeps south and forces parcels to finally convect, perhaps as far west as the western South Plains where the dryline is expected to retreat. Barring the afternoon capping inversion being overcome, severe prospects look greatest overnight when MUCAPEs of 1500 J/kg are put to work. Large hail, high winds, and heavy rain are all on the table especially off the Caprock where rich PWATs hold steady around 1.2 inches. The progressive nature of the front and undercutting of storms with time may tend to curb a broader flooding threat.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Following the cold front early Saturday morning, cool and stable northeast breezes prevail before veering southeast on Sunday under a weaker and largely westerly flow regime. This quiet theme carries into next week with temperatures warming into the lower 80s by midweek. A weak ripple in westerly flow by Tuesday may garner some showers or storms, but this signal is poor overall. By late week the pattern amplifies with broad troughing occupying the western CONUS resulting in a favorable pattern for multiple days of storms with an active dryline.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period with southwest winds steadily increasing into the afternoon hours. A round of scattered SHRA with a few TS is expected this afternoon, with highest chance of precip at KCDS. Confidence is too low for a mention at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon, but erratic winds should be expected near any convection that does develop. Otherwise, a cold front will descend southward through the region after sunset, bringing a shift to gusty northeast winds with will last through tonight. The front will also bring better chances for TSRA to all terminals during the 03z-06z timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Southerly winds will bring richer moisture to all but the far southwest TX Panhandle on Friday morning. This moisture will lead to some showers and storms by late Friday morning through the afternoon before a cold front late Friday night brings better chances for storms to much of the region. The driest and breeziest W-SW winds will target the far southwest TX Panhandle Friday afternoon at 15-20 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph. Combined with RHs bottoming out near 10 percent, elevated fire weather is likely here with potential also extending into portions of the South Plains and much of the far southern TX Panhandle. Winds will turn northerly at 15-25 mph after midnight behind a cold front.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.