textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Warm and dry Monday.

- Rain likely early Tuesday through Thursday, potentially heavy at times.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper ridge will continue to have influence over the region for much of the day Monday and conditions will be very similar to that of Sunday. Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon, however no precipitation is expected and highs will top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The pattern will become much more active Monday night. More details below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper low will descend over Southern California through the day Monday. As it gradually shifts south and eastward Monday night into Tuesday, the already strong Pacific moisture fetch from associated SW flow aloft will absorb the additional remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo which will all be advected into our vicinity. Although models are still coming into a consensus, the general thinking remains the same from previous forecasts. Rain should begin early Tuesday morning near the TX/NM border and gradually track eastward through the day. Again model timing varies, however heaviest rain is expected to overspread the area at some point from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning before a dry slot builds in as the low occludes. Also of note is the associated surface low positioned to the west on Tuesday combined with a fairly strong low-level jet will bring breezy southerly winds during the afternoon, potentially gusting up to 40 mph. A trough moving over central Canada will push the upper low back due southward Wednesday into Thursday and depending on the exact track, further precipitation is possible along its backside Thursday into Friday. All this to say, there remains much uncertainty this week, but in a nutshell heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible (with slightly higher chances generally on the Caprock). We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as needed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light northeasterly winds at the start of the period will shift to southeasterly by early afternoon. Some fog cannot be ruled out at KCDS around daybreak, but potential seemed too low to include in the TAF at this time. Dry conditions should continue through this period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.