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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Warm, dry, and breezy to start the work week.

- Strong-to-high winds are expected for most of the region Tuesday, with a critical fire danger in areas that received minimal rainfall.

- Warm and low-end windy conditions will continue Wednesday into Thursday, leading to an elevated fire danger each day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Not much to relay for the short term forecast package early this morning, with the main message being warm, dry, and breezy conditions to start the work week. Taking a look at the H5 level, the FA will reside beneath the upper level ridge as the ridge axis begins to slowly shift east in response to an upper level low moving onshore the California coast. As a result, northwest flow aloft will begin to flatten early this morning becoming southwesterly by Monday evening as the low inches closer to the region. Meanwhile at the surface, lee cyclogenesis across southeastern CO will prevail ahead of the upper trough while a stronger surface low begins to develop across the PacNW/Intermountain West region. The lee trough is expected to dig into the northern Texas Panhandle by the afternoon hours Monday as it translates into the Southern Plains. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the region, giving way to breezy southwest winds around 15 to 20 MPH. These warm-breezy winds combined with abundant sunshine will influence much warmer temperatures compared to what we saw this weekend, despite thickness and height values remaining untouched with highs in the 70s and 80s. Tonight, southwest winds will remain elevated around 15 MPH in response to the continued influence from the pair of surface lows dominating to our northwest. Given winds will remain slightly elevated, combined with increasing high clouds through the overnight hours, lows will be mild in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, an intense, negatively-tilted, shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the central Great Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a secondary shortwave trough will dig southward along the Pacific Coast, with its upstream jet streak beginning to phase with the longitudinally-elongating jetlets accompanying the shortwave trough ejecting into the central Great Plains. This will cause a significant intensification of the jet streaks translating through the base of the negatively-tilted trough, with the 300 mb jet streak approaching 170 kt; and the 500 mb and 700 mb jet streaks nearing 110 kt and 70 kt, respectively, as the jetlets nose into the western High Plains. The CWA will be beneath the right-exit region of the mid- and high-level jet streaks, resulting in a wide gradient of wind speeds across the CWA. Cyclogenesis of a 984-986 mb surface low will occur in the northern Great Plains and generate a large-scale isallobaric response, with winds accelerating quickly after sunrise as the boundary-layer begins to couple with the high-momentum flow.

The highest winds are expected across the Caprock, particularly in the far southwestern TX PH nearest the jet maxima. Winds were raised from the NBM and aligned with the NBM 90th percentile for most of the day Tuesday, with the gust factor raised to 55 kt. The magnitude of the cross-barrier flow will also generate intense mountain waves that should propagate as far east as the 100th meridian given the longitudinal extension of the jet streaks. As such, rotors emanating from hydraulic jumps along the lee of the southern Rocky Mountains will facilitate the downward mixing of the higher-momentum air aloft, with the potential for wind gusts to approach 65-70 mph across the far southwestern TX PH Tuesday afternoon. Gusts between 55-65 mph should be common elsewhere across the Caprock during the afternoon. Blowing dust will result in reductions to visibility on the Caprock. Critical fire weather conditions are also forecast to develop across the northwestern zones due to the minimal amounts of rainfall from this past weekend, although a thick cirrus shield may affect minimum RH values in the boundary-layer through at least the mid-afternoon hours. Sky cover has been increased to account for the opaque cirrus, which should begin to clear east of the CWA before sunset. The High Wind Watch and Fire Weather Watch remain in effect between 17/17Z-18/01Z (or 11 AM through 7 PM CST Tuesday).

A Pacific cold front will move through the CWA Tuesday evening, with southwesterly winds transitioning towards the west post-FROPA while gradually diminishing through 18/05Z (midnight CST Wednesday). Winds were raised during the overnight hours into Wednesday, as the pressure gradient will be slow to slacken due to the superposition of the broadly cyclonic jet streaks relative to the CWA. Despite the brisk, westerly winds Wednesday morning, temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Caprock, with lows in the middle-upper 40s in the Rolling Plains. Pacific cold fronts notoriously aid in improvements to RH regardless of the westerly fetch, and RH is forecast to recover between 40-55 percent Wednesday morning. Phasing of the synoptic-scale flow will be completed by Wednesday, with a broad, gyre-like formation to the flow evolving over the northern Rocky Mountains as the upstream shortwave trough digs into the Great Basin. This will modulate the jet stream into a quasi-zonal state across the Lower 48, with the core of the jetlets shifting southward over the CWA.

Low-end windy conditions are forecast to develop Wednesday, as a leading shortwave perturbation emerges over the central Great Plains and results in cyclogenesis of another surface low, at or around 994 mb, near the Palmer Divide. Full insolation is forecast compared to Tuesday, with elevated fire weather concerns returning due to the southwesterly fetch and warm temperatures. A secondary Pacific cold front will move through the region Wednesday night into Thursday as the negatively-tilting shortwave trough ejects eastward into the central Great Plains. Winds are forecast to remain brisk heading into Thursday while once again shifting to the west, with a renewed risk for elevated fire weather conditions. Global NWP guidance is indicating that the final shortwave trough associated with this highly progressive pattern will pivot over the southern Great Plains by the end of the week. The northern displacement of this trough would keep the CWA beneath the dry slot, with benign weather to follow as a shortwave ridge moves eastward into the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southwest winds will remain light through the overnight period, becoming breezy at all terminals Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Strong-to-high winds are expected for most of the region Tuesday, with a risk of critical fire weather developing across portions of the Caprock and the far southern Texas Panhandle. The fire weather risk will be tempered in areas that received heavy rainfall this past weekend. Southwesterly winds are forecast to accelerate after sunrise Tuesday and peak during the afternoon hours, with gusts between 65-70 mph possible in the far southwestern TX PH. Gusts between 55-60 mph should be common across most of the Caprock otherwise. Winds will weaken in the Rolling Plains, with speeds between 20-30 mph forecast while remaining near advisory-level in the far southeastern TX PH. Thick cirrus clouds may result in slightly higher RH values Tuesday afternoon, and the clouds should clear before sunset.

Winds will then shift to the west prior to sunset from the passage of a Pacific cold front, with winds gradually diminishing throughout the nighttime hours. RH will recover to between 40-55 percent across the forecast area by Wednesday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are then forecast to return Wednesday afternoon, with winds backing to the southwest at 20-30 mph amidst full sunshine.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-039.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035.