textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, with a very gradual cooling trend anticipated.

- Daily storm chances exist through the upcoming week, favoring areas on the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Current convective activity in eastern New Mexico is expected to continue to wane over the next few hours. A repeat of early morning activity is not expected early Monday morning. Although a strong low level jet will be present, the lack of a low level boundary will likely prevent any overnight development.

The upper level ridge currently centered over North Texas will quickly move eastward through the day on Monday settling in the southeastern CONUS by Monday evening. The initial position of the ridge will advect the mid-level monsoon moisture plume northward through the morning. However, the quick movement of the ridge to the east will allow the moisture plume to advect back over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains late Monday afternoon. The combination of several factors will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development over these areas late Monday afternoon. Low level convergence will be present underneath this moisture plume in vicinity of a weak surface pressure trough. Additionally, a low level theta-e ridge will extend along this same feature contributing to mixed layer instability values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Thermodynamic profiles will largely be similar we have seen the past few days. However, with slightly cooler surface temperatures the dry sub-cloud layer will be smaller but still likely enough to see strong wind gusts with any storms that develop. As the ridge moves eastward, thickness values will tick down slightly resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

This same pattern will continue through mid-week with daily chances of convection favoring areas on the caprock. Tuesday evening into the nighttime hours will see the highest chances of precipitation through the week. This is mostly in part due to a cold front that will be dropping south through the Texas Panhandle. This will create an area of significant low level ascent beneath a moist mid-level atmosphere. Areas on the caprock will see the highest chances of convection with this area in closest proximity to the mid-level moisture and low level ascent. Heavy rain may be the most significant threat from this activity with precipitable water values over the 95th percentile. The upper level ridge will begin to push back west on Wednesday starting to advect the mid-level moisture back to the north. As a result, convective chances will most likely be limited to the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle again. Although the ridge will be moving back closer to the region, temperatures will continue the downward trend with the ridge weakening. Model guidance has not been consistent from Friday and beyond. Current blends paint a broad precipitation chances with flow aloft returning to the southwest and a few minor short wave troughs potentially affecting the region. Additionally, a cold front may be added into the mix sometime next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Expect wind speeds around 15-20G30KTs to develop at all terminals shortly after sunrise Monday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.