textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- A warming trend is expected through much of the week, with temperatures back above normal by mid-week.

- Mostly dry through the week, though there is some indication of isolated showers and thunderstorm Thursday afternoon for southern portions of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening shows the upper level trough extends into the ArkLaTX regions, while off to our west the upper level ridge continues to amplify over the Four Corners region. As a result, the main plume of subtropical moisture remains to our south where flow aloft remains southwesterly. However, across much of our region, northerly flow will continue transport drier air into the region. Though, a small plume of moisture remains across portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Though this moisture is limited, models are beginning to pick up on the potential for localized pockets of patchy fog across the aforementioned area. Confidence remains low on this happening, so will withhold any mention in the official forecast for now. Though drier air is filtering through the mid to upper levels, lower levels will maintain an upslope component which will aid in scattered cloud cover through much of the night. Therefore, overnight lows will remains on the warmer side in the 50s and 60s under light easterly winds. As for Monday, a quiet and warmer day is expected as the warming trend continues with the increase in geopotential heights, with highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Cloud cover is expected to linger across the Caprock through late afternoon, which will help keep cooler highs west of I-27 while east of this highs will be much warmer thanks to the clearer skies. As we head into the late evening and overnight period, winds will begin to veer out of the south as lee troughing develops in southeastern CO while the surface high departs to the east with the departing upper level trough. Despite warmer air being advected into the region during this time period, clear skies overnight and light winds will allow for max radiational cooling. Which will allow temperatures to be near the same and/or slightly cooler from what we see Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The extended forecast package remains on track this evening, with the main theme being warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the work week into next weekend. The main change? There is some hope for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by late week. Synoptically speaking, the upper level ridge over the SWCONUS will begin to weaken through mid-week as a series of shortwaves translate through the PacNW regions, leading to a weak omega block pattern across the CONUS. Though heights will be near stationary, surface winds will be persistent out of the south- southwest in response to lee cyclogenesis to our north. As a result, increased thickness values will aid in afternoon temperatures above seasonal standards through the work week, climbing into the 80s and 90s across the Caprock regions. Though confidence is low, NBM PoPs are trying to suggest the potential for a rogue shower and/or thunderstorm Thursday afternoon in response to a disturbance tracking near the US/Mexico border. Though, deterministic and ensemble models are not in great agreement with this, keeping the bulk of moisture and forcing well to our south. Depending on how this system evolves, along with the amount of moisture return we are able to see will determine if areas across our southern row of counties will luck out. For now, will maintain NBM non-mentionable (though not zero) PoPs until we getter better agreement from models. Otherwise, expect the drier and warming trend to continue through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Barring a marginal window for fog toward daybreak at LBB and PVW, VFR and light winds continues.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.