textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Scattered storms Friday evening into the overnight hours (30-60% chance), with gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. More storms are possible on the Caprock Saturday (20-30% chance).

- Slightly cooler for the weekend (mid to upper 90s), then warmer next week (upper 90s to low 100s). Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The expected synoptic evolution is largely on track with previous forecasts, with the main forecast challenge being the exact timing and coverage of storms thru Fri night.

Thurs evening, the upper ridge was centered over New Mexico, while a mid-level disturbance was emerging onto the central Plains. Scattered storms were present across the OK/TX Panhandles (north of I-40 as of 1020pm/0320z, moving WSW. A few gusts to around 60 mph were noted across WFO Amarillo's coverage area earlier Thurs evening. Several runs of the HRRR model have hinted at sporadic convection reaching the far southern TX Panhandle overnight. Based on this, expanded the slight chance (10-20%) precip mention to include northern portions of our forecast area overnight.

Into Fri, a front will push in from the north, and could help kick off showers/storms during the day. CAMs are inconsistent and somewhat limited in precip coverage along the front. Instead, the more notable chance for storms is in the form of an evening MCS that develops over the higher terrain of NM and spills southeast, driven by increasing NW flow aloft as the the upper high shifts west. Updraft instability is expected to be meager across the forecast area Fri PM (less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE), but a deep, well-mixed PBL will result in high downdraft instability (around 1500 J/kg of DCAPE). Such values will be supportive of sporadic wind gusts over 60 mph. Ensemble mean PWAT values are around 1.5" (90th percentile). The NW flow and outflow-driven evolution should keep storms fairly progressive, but nevertheless high-res models have pockets of 1-3" of rain, which could lead to isolated flooding. Storm chances are highest over the western South Plains Friday evening (50-60%) and gradually decrease with eastward extent, to just 20-30% across the eastern Rolling Plains.

Conditions remain hot on Fri despite the front, as 850mb temps are only marginally cooler than previous days, still peaking at 30+ degC across much of the region. That will translate to highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. However, conditions do trend cooler for Sat, with 850mb temps between 25-30 degC and sfc highs in the mid-90s. If the forecast for the next two days verifies, Saturday would be the first day below 100 degrees in Childress since July 20th. Isolated storms are possible Sat PM across the western South Plains, but chances are higher in NM.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Models depict the upper wave currently over the central Plains moving towards the central Appalachians, cutting off from the main flow, and retrograding. This will act to slow the broader pattern evolution. Hot and primarily dry conditions remain the expectation for next week, as the upper ridge becomes flattened but keeps above normal heights in place over W TX. The ensemble mean 500mb height forecast is generally between 592-596 dam next week. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a good chance (50-80%) for daily high temperatures above 100 degrees off the Caprock, with lower chances (10-30%) for reaching such values on the Caprock. It remains to be seen if the ridge flattens enough that disturbances rounding it track close enough to clip the forecast area with precip. For now, the NBM keeps the forecast area dry, with PoPs less than 10% each day Sunday onward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. Light southerly winds will continue through the overnight period before shifting to the southwest Friday afternoon. There is a small chance for rain showers in the vicinity of KCDS early Friday morning. As the chances of these showers impacting the terminal are uncertain at the moment, have left out of TAF. A weak front is expected to reach the region Friday afternoon. Winds will vary as the front reaches each terminal before shifting to the north behind the front. Scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front. Another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern NM before expanding into our forecast area. Both rounds thunderstorms are expected to impact each terminal. Strong wind gusts, periods of heavy rainfall and plenty of lighting will be possible with these storms. These storms are expected to prevail through the evening and possibly continue after midnight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.