textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jul14 2026

- Cooler temperatures will continue through the rest of the work week, before a gradual warming trend this weekend.

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday, with greatest rain chances expected Thursday and Friday.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be the primary hazards with precipitation.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jul14 2026

Water vapor imagery tonight continues to portray the synoptic pattern very well, with the upper level high positioned to our north while an mid to upper level low sets up over the ArkLaTX region. As a result, northeasterly flow will continue across the LUB FA through the short term period. Given the current positioning of the easterly wave is displaced too far east, we are seeing a similar pattern to what we saw last night with drier air punching into the area from the north as the high continues to expand. This will lead to the continued decrease in precipitation activity through the remainder of the night. However, a small tongue of moisture attempting to wrap around the easterly wave displayed northeast of the area will try to creep into the region. Given this, we cannot rule out an isolated shower or two popping up overnight across the Rolling Plains. Otherwise, another quiet night is in store with overnight lows dipping into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Wednesday we will continue to see a similar synoptic pattern in place with the continuation of drier air spreading into the region, while the low spirals slightly westward into the Central Texas region, which will work to limit the overall convective potential. Despite the limited moisture in the mid to upper levels, moisture at the surface remains quite impressive for this time of year. With dewpoints progged above climatological standards in the 50s and 60s combined with PWATs up to an inch on the Caprock and up to 2" off the Caprock. Forcing for ascent will be weak, although any outflow boundaries marching through the area combined with the minor perturbations tracking through the flow should be enough for isolated to scattered activity. Primarily off the Caprock where the best moisture will reside. The severe threat will remain low Wednesday with the primary hazard being the potential for locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding concerns across low-lying areas. Although the threat is low, MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg on forecast soundings suggest a marginally severe wind gust up to 55 mph cannot be ruled out with stronger storm cores.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Main theme of the extended forecast package will be the increasing chances for precipitation by late this week with a warming trend through the weekend. The upper level low over Central Texas will expand northward through mid to late week with the center of low setting up over the Big Country. In response we will begin to see flow aloft veer out of the southwest, allowing tropical moisture displaced south of the area to be advected northward into the region as it wraps around the center of the low. As moisture through the H3 to H7 layer overspreads the region we will begin to see chances for precipitation increase across both Caprock regions Thursday and Friday. Not only will this support higher rainfall chances, but we will see the return of even "cooler" temperatures thanks to lingering cloud cover and precipitation chances throughout the day. Expect highs to range from the 70s across the Caprock and into the 80s for areas off the Caprock both Thursday and Friday. Depending where rainfall is able to persist the longest, there is a chance that some locations are able to see temperatures a few degrees cooler than currently forecasted. Although confidence has increased slightly in widespread precipitation, confidence remains low in regards to storm intensity. Weak shear will work to limit storm organization, though modest instability parameters may support a strong to marginally severe wind gust at times. The primary hazard, similar to what we have seen in previous days, will be the threat for locally heavy rainfall with forecast soundings depicted a deeply saturated column of moisture along with weak steering flow. Slow storm motions and abundant moisture in place will support the threat for efficient rainfall rates which could lead to localized flash flood across low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Heading into the weekend, upper ridging will build back over the western CONUS and gradually expand eastward into the southern High Plains. As this occurs, the bulk of moisture will shift to our west leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across the region. Thereafter, as heights and thickness values increase, expect a warmer and drier pattern to develop through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR and light winds. The next window for SHRA and TS should open late Wednesday night and much of Thursday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.