textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Fog is forecast across West Texas through the mid-morning hours Thursday, some of which may be dense.

- A few severe thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon, primarily across the northern half of the forecast area.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Friday across the South Plains, far southern Texas Panhandle, and much of the Rolling Plains.

- Cooler by the weekend with rain chances possible early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday morning) Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a compact shortwave trough was ejecting over the central Great Plains, with a belt of broadly cyclonic flow trailing behind as a positively-tilted trough continues to amplify across the northern Rocky Mountains. The shortwave ridge trailing the compact trough over the central Great Plains was nebulous, with only a narrow wave of geopotential height rises that have otherwise been dampened by the deepening trough to the west. This is evident by the bifurcated bands of cirrus on recent GOES-East imagery, with the southern-stream band trailing not too far behind the row of cumulonimbi stretching along the I-35 corridor. Moist, isentropic ascent within the high-levels is expected to continue advecting over the CWA throughout the next 24 hours, with cirrus forecast to thicken as the leading wave of DPVA emerges over the southern Great Basin early in the day Thursday. Low-level stratus is expected to develop and advect poleward during the predawn hours Thursday, as 850 mb winds, which are already backed as per the 05/00Z UA charts, intensify in response to the geopotential height falls. Rapid moisture return will occur overnight, and the previous forecast mention of drizzle and/or fog through the mid-morning hours Thursday has been maintained. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially across the Caprock, with very low ceilings expected area-wide.

At the surface, the cold front that previously moved through W TX last night has transitioned into a quasi-stationary front, and is draped in a north-south-oriented manner across eastern NM before bending eastward into the Permian Basin. The front then stretches northeastward into central N TX, per METAR and WTM data. A weak anticyclone was located along the KS/OK state line near PNC-WLD, with its southwestern periphery clipping the far southeastern TX PH where winds remain northeasterly. Elsewhere across the CWA, winds have backed to the southeast in what is an already-moist airmass on the north side of the quasi-stationary front. Strong theta-e advection is present immediately south of this front, which will undergo warm-frontogenesis Thursday morning and surge poleward across W TX by the early-afternoon hours. A plume of dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s is forecast to advect into the CWA as the warm front moves through, with the higher dewpoints in the Rolling Plains. The passage of the warm front will be demarcated by the entrainment of the low-level stratus deck and the cessation of fog and/or drizzle near 18Z.

The thickening cirrus deck will be one of two primary cloud layers to limit the effects of insolation, and ultimately, the rate of destabilization within the boundary-layer Thursday afternoon. High temperatures were cooled slightly from the NBM, with temperatures rising into the middle 70s across most of the CWA as the strong theta-e advection post-FROPA compensates for the restrictions to diabatic heating from the low- and high-altitude clouds. As the positively-tilted trough begins to pivot over the Rocky Mountains, cyclogenesis of a 994 mb surface low will occur in eastern CO and generate a moderate isallobaric response. Southerly winds are set to increase to 20-30 mph (i.e., a direct result of the strong theta-e advection), which will aid in the mixing of the stratus within the low-levels and result in modest boundary-layer destabilization. The decayed tranche of the quasi-stationary front currently positioned west of the Mescalero Escarpment will also transition into a sharp, well-defined dryline near the NM state line, leaving nearly all of the CWA in the moist sector. While the dryline will be sharp, it will be situated beneath broadly cyclonic flow; and with this particular dryline being in a meso-alpha-scale state (i.e., >200 miles in length) as it connects to the surface low in eastern CO, the poleward flow along and through it will be bereft of low-level convergence despite the strong confluence. (Elongated drylines such as this are typical of both early-season and strongly forced systems.) Therefore, open warm sector initiation of at least a few thunderstorms is forecast as the warm front surges poleward across the CWA Thursday afternoon.

Due to the current position of the amplifying trough to the west, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to lag in time relative to the initiation of thunderstorms, the latter of which should occur near 21-22Z. Since the destabilization of the boundary-layer will be modest, only a few storms are forecast to develop, primarily in the corridors of where differential diabatic heating occurs from the erosion of the low-level stratus deck. This area should be in the northern half of the CWA based on the timing of the warm front arriving in congruence with peak heating. Vertically-veering winds that become unidirectional above 600 mb will favor supercell wind profiles in the presence of an EML between 1,500-2,000 J/kg of CAPE for mixed-layer parcels. Initial multi-cellular storms are forecast to merge and morph into a few semi-discrete supercells, with a primary hazard for very large hail up two inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. An isolated occurrence of hail exceeding two inches in diameter will be possible due to the combination of strong, low-level storm-relative winds facilitating the maintenance of wide updrafts and wet-bulb zero heights as low as 9.5 kft AGL. A tornado threat will materialize in the event that rightward propagation can occur without the effects of destructive interference counteracting buoyant inflow from multiple storms grouped closely together.

Weak storm-relative winds through the deep-layer and anvil-levels will garner hybrid-HP supercells, and with low LCLs, any tornadoes that do form may be difficult to see. The best potential for a tornado or two appears to be across the far southeastern TX and the northern Rolling Plains as the low-level jet begins to intensify by 06/00Z, but the potential for cyclic behavior of the supercells and potent downdrafts should keep the tornado risk short-lived before storms either exit the CWA or merge into a larger complex. The former should come to fruition before upscale growth occurs due to the rather brisk storm motion vectors, which are nearly 30 kt even for right-moving supercells. PoPs have been adjusted to account for the trends in thinking with respect to storm coverage, with mainly widely-scattered-to-scattered storms expected Thursday afternoon and evening, with a more-isolated risk for elevated storms overnight into Friday morning. Elevated storms that form along the leading wave of DPVA would favor a risk for large hail, with storms waning in coverage prior to sunrise Friday while remaining breezy.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will end by Friday morning as an upper low departs northward. Breezy SW winds across the area will persist through the day in its wake. Highest winds will occur over the far SW Panhandle with gusts to 35 mph possible. While this area will be where the most critical fire weather concerns occur, widespread humidities in the single digits still merit a Fire Weather Watch for nearly the entire forecast area from late Friday morning through evening. Highs will range from the low 70s along the TX/NM border to the low 80s off the Caprock.

A cold front will move through late Friday into early Saturday and winds will subsequently switch out of the north. An upper low will split from the main flow pattern through the day Saturday. Relatively broad high pressure will develop over the the Great Plains and thus cooler and dry conditions are expected. Highs will only reach the mid-to-upper 50s and the despite the NAM indicating precipitation over much of the area in the afternoon, the aforementioned cool northerly winds and high pressure would curtail any chances and latest forecast thinking more reflects the GFS/ECMWF solutions with little to no precipitation expected for the area. The upper low will stall off the Baja California coast on Sunday and again precipitation looks to stay east of the forecast area. Surface winds will turn southerly and highs will somewhat recover from Saturday, generally in the mid-to-upper 60s. Models begin to diverge thereafter, with the GFS/GEFS taking a more progressive track and bringing the low into our area faster. ECMWF/ENS show a slower progression with the low weakening into more of an open wave. Nonetheless, rain chances will increase from Monday to Wednesday, with exact timing and placement being fine-tuned as time evolves.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An approaching upper level storm system has brought significant moisture into the region early this morning resulting in low CIGS and visbys at all TAF sites. With the persistent moist flow, these lowered flight conditions are expected to persist for much of the morning. Visbys will likely be first to improve by mid to late morning as southerly winds increase. Low CIGS are expected to lift a few hours later in the afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the evening with greatest chances near the KCDS terminal.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ021>036-039>042.