textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through the weekend.

- Chances for cooler and wetter conditions are expected to return by early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet weather is expected to continue Wednesday through Thursday as the forecast area remains under the influence of a weakening H5 ridge. Thus, drier northerly flow aloft will persist across the region through Wednesday, before we see flow become more easterly in response to a shortwave setting up over the central Texas region. Meanwhile at the surface, warm-upslope flow will continue the rest of the afternoon through the overnight period as lee cyclogenesis continues over southeast CO, which in combination with clear skies and slightly above normal geopotential heights will influence afternoon highs back above seasonal standards in the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Thursday we will see a few changes, as previously mentioned, as surface flow backs out of the east as a surface high centers itself over the DFW metro. Despite this, return flow is expected to happen later in the evening, so we will not see much influence from the upslope component of the wind in regards to afternoon highs. Considering skies will remain mostly clear along with geopotential heights near stationary.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The extended forecast package will feature the continuation of warmer and drier conditions through the weekend, before we see a synoptic pattern change early next week. Where we could see the return of cooler and wetter conditions across the region. For the first half of the extended, a weak upper ridge will continue over the Caprock regions, which will allow above seasonal normal temperatures to continue in the 80s and 90s, along with dry conditions. However by the end of the weekend the synoptic pattern will begin to change as an upper trough moves onshore the PacNW and deepens over the western CONUS by Monday. In turn, the upper ridge will shift east while becoming more amplified over the region. As we see the return of southwest flow, moist subtropical moisture will work to make its way back into the region. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with this part of the extended, especially with what is now currently Tropical Depression Twenty-E. Depending on how this evolves, we could see more moisture transport than what is currently being depicted by NWP guidance. Given the large amount of uncertainty, we will go ahead and maintain NBM mentionable PoPs beginning late Monday considering both deterministic and ensemble guidance are beginning to align with a wetter outcome. However, there is still some disagreement with the GFS being the more bullish models compared to the ECMWF, which looks to be in part to the location of the upper trough which will play a part in how southerly flow aloft becomes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR and light winds will prevail through this TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.