textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Patchy to dense fog is possible for areas on the Caprock early Monday morning.

- Multiple days of hot temperatures and dry conditions expected this week beginning Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

After a much needed rainy Sunday, Monday will be warmer, but pleasant. The upper shortwave that contributed to precipitation Sunday will exit away from the region as upper ridging begins to build over the Desert Southwest. Northerly winds following the cold front that blasted through the region Sunday will linger overnight through Monday morning. Lingering moisture will bring potential for patchy to dense fog for areas on the Caprock early in the morning. Any fog is expected to clear out around sunrise. Winds will shift to the south to southeast Monday afternoon as a lee surface trough develops over Colorado. Slight height and thickness increases from the upper ridging to the west of the region as well as southerly surface flow will aide with temperatures warming to the low 80s across the region. Overnight Monday will be quiet with lows in the 50s and light south to southwesterly winds.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday will be the start of multiple days of hot temperatures. The aforementioned upper ridging will prevail over the Desert Southwest through mid-week before slowly pushing eastward. Height and thickness increases and prevailing south to southwesterly surface flow will continue to warm temperatures. Highs will climb into the 90s beginning Tuesday and are expected everyday through the weekend. Subsidence from the upper ridge will sadly keep conditions dry. Models indicate a surface trough over the Central Plains will dig south reaching part way into the CWA late Tuesday through early Wednesday. As a result, winds will shift to the north to northeast across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. The only impact this surface trough will have is on the winds. However, it won't last long as winds will quickly shift back to the south early Wednesday afternoon.

Later in the week, a multiple embedded shortwaves passing across the Rockies will trigger the development of a lee surface trough each afternoon beginning Thursday. The lee surface trough will tighten the pressure gradient resulting in breezy southwesterly to westerly winds everyday. Dry conditions, hot temperatures, and breezy winds will make elevated to critical fire danger possible the latter half of the week. The upper ridging will begin to deamplify and exit away from the region towards the end of the week. An upper low will push on shore off the coast of California following ridge. However, models disagree with the progression of this upper low. ECMWF has the low opening to a low-amplitude trough as it passes across the northern Rockies. This progression will bring mostly zonal flow over our region. GFS has the low progress across the Desert southwest before passing across the Central Plains with the base of the trough passing over the CWA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Fog/LIFR is occurring at KLBB and KPVW. Visibility may periodically slightly improve, however will remain generally low for the next few hours (through approximately 15z). Otherwise VFR and light winds will persist thereafter.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.