textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Tuesday through Saturday.

- Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, and quarter sized hail.

- Slightly cooler this week, with highs in the 70s to lower 90s, warming back up through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Other than a few isolated showers and thunderstorms persisting across Hockley county as of 8 PM CDT, most precipitation has come to an end for much of the Caprock regions as the environment has become quite stable through sunset with the FROPA now positioned south of the FA. As a result, the remainder of the night is expected to be relatively quiet, with most hi-resolution guidance depicting a drier overnight period. Despite this, the weak nocturnal LLJ is expected to ramp up amid abundant moisture in place, and lingering outflows could provide enough low-level convergence to support an isolated thunderstorm or two across the Caprock. The overall severe threat would be low should a storm develop, with main threats being locally heavy rainfall and strong winds up to 50 mph.

Synoptically speaking, Tuesday will feature the upper ridge departing to the east as the upper shortwave over the Rockies translates northeastward. As a result, southwest flow aloft will prevail, drawing subtropical/monsoonal moisture into portions of the region. The bulk of the moisture looks to reside west of the TX/NM state line given the more southerly direction of the upper level flow.However, moist upslope flow at the surface will also aid in moisture return from the Gulf at the lower levels. In turn, PWAT values are expected to rise above the 90th percentile normal for this time of year, nearing 1.5" across portions of the area. This increased moisture will aid in low-level stratus development across portions of the area Tuesday morning, lingering through the early afternoon. Depending on the longevity of the cloud deck, high temperatures Tuesday could be a few degrees cooler than forecasted. Which are currently forecasted in the upper 70s across the northwestern portions of the FA and upper 80s across the southeastern portions. As for precipitation chances, there is low confidence in storms Tuesday afternoon as a weak perturbation attempts to track into the region within the southwest flow aloft. Given the more southerly flow, forcing appears to be better to the west (similar to the moisture). Despite this, areas of convergence may still be present via lingering outflow boundaries, with moist upslope flow also in place. Given this, we will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs, though will lower them from likely PoPs to slight chance across the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The upper shortwave will continue to track northeastward into the High Plains through the first part of the extended period as the upper high centered across the ETX region amplifies slightly into portions of the lower MS River Valley. The FA will find itself sandwiched between the two systems, with southerly flow aloft prevailing across the region, which will continue to aid in beneficial subtropical/monsoonal moisture transport into the region. As a result, PWATs are expected to remain well above climatological standards, ranging from 1.25" to around 1.75" across portions of the area. As daily perturbations ripple through the flow aloft, we could see the potential for isolated to scattered storms each day from Wednesday through Saturday. The best chance for precipitation looks to arrive Thursday and Friday as a secondary, more potent shortwave lifts northeast from the Four Corners into the High Plains. DESI LREF probabilities depict a 70 to 90% chance for areas across the Caprock receiving at least a half inch of precipitation, with lower probabilities around 30 to 60% for areas off the Caprock Wednesday through Friday. Meanwhile, NBM probabilities remain consistent with the DESI probs, with higher end amounts up to 3" possible for areas across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. The overall severe threat with this activity will be low, though forecast soundings depicting long-skinny CAPE profiles with a well saturated column of moisture suggests that stronger storm cores could pose a risk of precipitation loading, which could lead to localized flooding and potentially strong to marginally severe wind gusts at times.

As far as temperatures go through the extended, we will see the first taste of fall across the Caprock regions, though temperatures will actually be near normal. Which is hard to believe considering how hot it has been over the last several weeks. Expect highs in the mid 70s to mid 90s Wednesday through Saturday, though we could see cooler highs considering the expectation of lingering cloud cover most afternoons given the abundant moisture in place. Headed into the weekend, we will begin to see a warming trend occur as the upper ridge builds back over the region. However, there is indication from ensemble members on the potential for another cool down by next Tuesday as our next disturbance develops and attempts to swing a cold front through the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Lots of uncertainty this morning regarding the extent and duration of sub-VFR conditions. MVFR CIGs remain in place at KPVW as of 11z and are expected to persist through at least midday. Potential also exists for periods of MVFR CIGs this morning at both KLBB and KCDS, but confidence in timing is low and amendments should be expected. Isolated TSRA are also possible essentially anywhere across the region through the next 24 hours, but with low probability of convective impacts to the terminals. VFR is expected to prevail this afternoon and evening before another round of MVFR CIGs tonight.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.