textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 501 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- A few severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, primarily across the Rolling Plains into the far southeast TX Panhandle.

- Critical fire weather is likely Friday on the Caprock with elevated conditions elsewhere.

- Cooler this weekend with widespread rain chances by Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The warm front, as of 11 AM, is steadily progressing northward through the FA and is approaching the northern edge of the FA. The dryline is also slowly on the move and is currently along a line from just west of Clovis southward to Fort Davis. The dryline is not expected to move far into the FA, possibly only making it as far as I 27/US 87 just after 00Z before it retreats back westward into New Mexico. This will leave this afternoon's potential convection to be triggered by upper lift behind the warm front. A subtle upper shortwave trough currently moving from Sonora into Chihuahua will likely be the source of the upper lift as it moves northeastward over the FA this evening. Currently CI is expected to occur around 5- 6 PM across the Rolling Plains. Storms that do develop have a good potential to become severe. Dewpoints across the Rolling Plains are currently in the mid/upper 50s, and we will see 60+ dewpoints transported in from the south over the next several hours. Stability should not be a problem this evening with MLCAPE averaging around 1500 to over 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear averaging around 40-50 knots. This would support the possibility of hail over 2 inches. There will also be a threat for isolated tornadoes. Backed surface winds will help curve hodographs especially across our northeast. The threat will exist as long as the capping inversion can be overcome and storms are surface based as opposed to being elevated, which current CAMs are supportive of this. The tornado threat will exist early in the event with the threat transitioning to large hail/wind by late evening as storms become less discrete and more multicellular. Storms should clear the FA by midnight.

Friday will be quieter in terms of convection. The approaching upper low will be moving east of the Four Corners by sunrise and will help to push the dryline to our east by early afternoon. The combination of the proximity of the upper low, surface low, and good mixing will allow for a warm, dry, windy day. Surface winds will veer to the west behind the dryline and increase to around 20-30 mph. Fuels will be drier than were originally forecasted yesterday as areas on the Caprock will likely not see convection or meaningful rainfall, and this will lead to near critical to critical fire weather danger for most of the FA. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with the exception of the northern Rolling Plains which will be placed in a RFD along with the southern Rolling Plains. Conditions will be marginal for a RFW, and it will be possible for that area to receive wetting rains with this evening's potential convection. Even without wetting rains, fuels will be slower to respond given today and tonight's moist environment. Winds will begin to subside starting around sunset Friday evening as mixing is lost.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

After a cool and mostly dry weekend, the remainder of the extended looks mostly mild and a bit on the unsettled side, especially for early in the week as a cutoff low drifts into W TX.

Starting Friday evening, quiet weather should linger under mid- level dry slotting south of an upper trough lifting across the central Great Plains. At the surface, a dryline initially just east of the forecast area may retreat a bit after sunset ahead of a Canadian front diving south. While the potential for these boundaries to convect as they meet overnight is non-zero, PoPs are being kept under 20% for the southern Rolling Plains due to a dry signal from high res models. CAA spills south overnight ahead of a rather chilly surface high arriving Saturday night. NBM's highs are sitting pretty mild compared to MOS and since 850 mb temps are forecast to fall to between 0C and 6C during the day, highs in the 50s and low 60s seem more fitting than the NBM's widespread mid and upper 60s. These highs may need to be lowered even more across the southern Rolling Plains near a plume of elevated moisture advection and clouds complete with some low shower chances. These 20-30 percent rain chances may be a bit bullish especially if the cool and dry surface ridge proves stronger and faster.

Saturday night is looking the coldest in well over a week as widespread lows in the 30s seem more likely thanks to the surface high parking in our area under mostly clear skies and light winds. This high gets packing for the Hill Country on Sunday all the while the upper pattern features a low pinching off over the Desert Southwest that crawls east on Monday. Although the low levels will remain on the dry side for Sunday, just aloft there will be a moistening fetch of isentropic ascent from the SSW accompanied by a sliver of shower chances in our far southern zones. These chances grow to cover more real estate on Monday and especially Monday night as the column moistens with PWATs growing to between 1 and 1.3 inches area wide. Given this protracted period of deep moisture advection and deep meridional flow ahead of the low, NBM's generous PoPs look good and have support from recent global ensemble means. This low and its parent trough axis may now clear the region as early as Tuesday ahead of mild and drier semi-zonal flow for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Breezy, southerly winds will continue at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW for the rest of the evening and into tonight. There is a low chance for TSTMs INVOF KCDS between 00-03Z, and the previous TEMPO group has been maintained. TSTMs are expected to be north and east of KLBB and KPVW this evening. VFR will prevail otherwise, with winds transitioning to the southwest late Friday morning and becoming low-end windy at all terminals.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A dryline will move east of the region by noon Friday and will bring warm, dry, and windy conditions. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop to between 7-10 percent across Caprock with some areas across the Rolling Plains only dropping to 10-15 percent. This, combined with westerly 20-25 mph 20 foot winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns on the Caprock. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning on the Caprock and a Rangeland Fire Danger statement off the Caprock. The fire danger threat will be lower across much of the Rolling Plains if wetting rains are received with this evenings expected thunderstorms.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Friday for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>042.