textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Temperatures remain cool through Sunday, then rise back near or just above normal next week.

- Dry weather is expected through mid week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Widespread temps in the mid 30s or lower were reported on the Caprock this morning with many mesonets reporting temps at or below freezing. The lowest reported temp was 26 degrees at both Muleshoe and Friona. The Lubbock airport bottomed out at 34 degrees. Surface temps have risen steadily since sunrise with most areas now in the 50s with highs expected to top out around 60 this afternoon. Winds will slowly veer to the south by the early evening as surface ridging pushes off to the south and east. This will allow for slightly warmer overnight temps, mid to upper 30s.

Upper ridging associated with a weak blocking pattern will break down by early Sunday and will allow the broad upper low over southern California to begin pushing eastward, albeit slowly. Surface lee troughing will develop in response to this upper low and surface winds will respond by veering slightly to the southwest Sunday and increasing to 10-15 mph. Afternoon highs will remain in the 60s Sunday but, as a result of southwesterly winds, will mostly be in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The upper low will transition to an open wave trough as it struggles to move across the Desert Southwest before it becomes, at most, a subtle shortwave late Monday into Tuesday. Upper ridging will build by mid week as another upper low moves southward just offshore of the West Coast. Models are in fairly good agreement with the evolution of the upper low and upper ridge by late week. The upper low is progged to move inland across the Desert Southwest before transitioning to an open wave trough as it reaches the Four Corners. This pattern would result in additional heavy rainfall for New Mexico, but West Texas would be at risk of dryslotting as we move into next weekend. Models do have some storms in the forecast, but this will likely change as time moves closer. Ultimately, the dryslot risk will depend on the path of the upper low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds have begun to shift to the south. They will remain variable for the next couple of hours.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.