textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Heavy showers and thunderstorms remain expected mainly Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning, with flooding possible especially near the TX/NM state line.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle and northwestern portions of the South Plains.

- A few severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon over much of the Caprock.

- Generally drier and cooler weather is expected Thursday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeastward across the Rolling Plains as of 10 PM, with a few additional showers and thunderstorms forming across the southern Rolling Plains and portions of the southeastern South Plains. The first, farther north, set of storms formed along a remnant outflow boundary. While it is possible for the second set of storms to also form on a remnant boundary, one cannot be easily detected. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and far West Texas, well ahead of the approaching upper low. Rich moisture is evident on WV imagery, including moisture that is being siphoned from Hurricane Polo, currently making landfall across Baja California.

Most 00Z models are still in their infancy or have still yet to come in, but little change is seen from previous runs from what data is available in regards to heavy rain potential. New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle still look to get the brunt of they heaviest, longer lasting rainfall. Much of the FA should still receive beneficial rainfall through early Wednesday morning, however. The aforementioned activity across New Mexico and far West Texas is progged and expected to move into the FA before sunrise this morning. Rainfall will likely be moderate at best given more extensive upper lift will still be to the west. This will be followed by a lull in precip for this afternoon before a more solid line of heavier storms is expected during the early to mid evening hours. Rainfall rates will likely be high given a fairly saturated atmospheric column with PWATs approaching 2 inches. What should help alleviate widespread flooding will be the lack of training storms and a decent forward speed of the QLCS. This is not to say that flash flooding will not be possible. A quick 1 to 2 inches of rain is very likely, especially on the Caprock, with locally heavier amounts possible. This could lead to flooding of roadways. The heaviest rainfall is still progged for areas along the Texas/New Mexico state line where the Flood Watch is currently in effect. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are still expected.

One factor that is still a worry for the forecast is a potential dry slot. While there is plenty of dry air on WV imagery associated with the upper low, moisture also seems to be expanding, especially as it is siphoned from Hurricane Polo. Current thinking is dry slotting should not be a significant as shown by the more pessimistic models. Lift will be more than marginal, and at least low to mid level moisture will be plentiful. The current ongoing storms also show that models, CAM or otherwise, are somewhat struggling with forecasting potential convection as none of the models foresaw this convection. In addition to a heavy rain potential, there is also a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Especially given the moist nature of the system, concerns for hail are very low. Wet microbursts will definitely be in play, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as surface winds will be slightly backed.

The gridded forecast temps for this coming afternoon seem rather high given the expected thick cloud cover and rain potential, especially high temps on the Caprock. They have been lowered closer to MOS guidance with low to upper 70s expected. Areas off the Caprock will likely be warmer as rain chances decrease across that region and there will be potential for breaks in cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The bulk of the heavy precipitation is expected to end by Wednesday morning as a dry slot punches eastward on the southern end of the upper low. Although some lingering scattered showers are a good bet through much of Wednesday, additional rainfall totals will only be light. Another window for severe storms will then open Wednesday afternoon and evening, this time across the Rolling Plains along and east of a dryline. This threat should concentrate mainly to our east, but a few instances of large hail and damaging winds could materialize on Wednesday over our eastern zones. For the rest of the week, the forecast generally trends drier and cooler. There will be some potential for a few showers late week mainly off the Caprock, but our current expectation is for most locations to remain dry Thursday and beyond. The more noticable change will be much cooler temperatures with highs currently forecast in the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Rain has overspread the region faster than anticipated, and precipitation is likely at all terminals during the first few hours of the period. Thunder can't be ruled out this morning, but has been fairly sparse so it was kept out of the TAF for the morning. Precip coverage should decrease during the late morning/afternoon. Another line of showers/storms is anticipated to move west to east across the area between 04-12z. There is some uncertainty with the ceiling forecast, but for now kept MVFR in the forecast for much of the period at KLBB/KPVW. Southerly winds will gust as high as 30 kts today.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ021>023-027-028- 033.