textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Patchy fog possible across much of the area Thursday morning.

- High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for the entire region with locally heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Temperatures will be slow to warm this afternoon, especially on the caprock, until low stratus clears out of the area. A fairly noticable jump is expected immediately after clearing but not much more warming is expected after that initial jump. Cyclonic flow aloft will lead to surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies this afternoon bringing breezy southwesterly winds. A constant flow of low level moisture will again bring low stratus overnight tonight into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely be cooler with low stratus persisting until the afternoon again. However, mid and high level cloud cover will be on the increase with the approach of the next upper level short wave.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Upper level winds will begin to back to the southwest early in the day in advance of a short wave trough moving northeastward across northern Mexico. Ascent does not appear to be very strong with this short wave as it approaches the area late Thursday into Friday. Lift will begin to spread overhead the area early Thursday afternoon lasting through Friday afternoon until the trough axis passes overhead. A strong low level jet will develop in response to this short wave trough bringing significant amounts of isentropic ascent. Strong winds at 850mb will remain through the day time but shift eastward through the day swinging over the Rolling Plains in the afternoon. Large scale subsidence will then move overhead beginning late Friday afternoon ending precipitation. Precipitable water values will increase through the day on Thursday peaking early Friday morning with values ranging from one inch over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle to as much as 1.50 inches over the Rolling Plains. Model soundings become completely saturated by sunset on Thursday afternoon. These values correspond to anomalies above the 99th percentile for late October/early November. When precipitation begins on Thursday afternoon, some instability will be present with model soundings not quite saturated yet. However, as the atmosphere becomes completely saturated by late Thursday afternoon, lapse rates will greatly weaken leading to little to no available instability. Therefore, the best chances for any thunder will be early on in the event Thursday afternoon.

Models show another slower short wave trough hanging back late on Friday through early Saturday. However, model QPF amounts are light suggesting this may only be low stratus or possibly drizzle. This secondary short wave trough will move east of the area on Saturday afternoon leading to clearing skies for Halloween evening. Short wave ridging will move over top the area on Sunday in advance of a deep long wave trough moving across the western CONUS. Models are struggling a fair bit with this next system early next week but does look to bring a strong front through sometime from Monday through Tuesday next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

IFR ceilings to hang on another hour or three LBB/PVW/CDS with LBB hanging on longest. By late afternoon VFR should return though hard IFR is looking more likely after midnight with plentiful low level moisture in the area. We could see some below min conditions toward sunrise Thursday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.