textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected early Thursday morning with some patchy frost possible over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Temperatures will warm up through the first part of the weekend before a passing cold front cools Sunday.

- Hot temperatures expected next week with possible record breaking heat mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current surface observations indicate breezy east to northeasterly winds have filled in across the Caprock following a cold front with the strongest winds expected along the NM/TX border. These breezy winds are expected to prevail for the next few hours as the front continues through the region. Winds will diminish early this morning as the front exits the region. This morning may be the coolest morning for a good while with low temperatures in the lower 30s to upper 40s. The lowest temperatures are expected across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains. There is also the possibility for the development of frost for the same area. A Frost advisory is in effect from 4 AM until 9 AM this morning for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains. Luckily, the cooler temperatures do not last long. Winds will shift to the southwest later this morning as the region will sit between a surface high to the east and a surface low that is expected to develop over the NM/CO border. Southwesterly surface flow and sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm to the 70s across the region this afternoon. Winds will shift to the south after sunset as the surface low begins to gradually shift east, however are expected to remain light. Tonight will be warmer with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s with mostly clear skies. Otherwise, a quiet and pleasant night is expected.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

After a cooler Thursday, the long term forecast will start off with a warm up Friday and Saturday. On the upper levels, a low will translate across northern Mexico to Central Texas through the day Friday. Despite the close proximity of this upper system, it will be too far south to have an impact on our CWA. Therefore, Friday and Saturday remain dry. Models indicate a weak front will approach the region late Friday, however the only impact will be shifting winds to the east northeast overnight. Winds will quickly shift back to the south early Saturday aiding in temperatures warming up to the 90s. Following the upper low that tracked to the south of the region, a shortwave will pass over the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for a small area of the far southeastern Texas Panhandle where the upper shortwave will pass, however the better storm chances will be to the east to southeast of the CWA. On the surface, a cold front is progged to pass through the region over the weekend, however models are in disagreement in timing of the front. GFS has a faster progression with the front reaching the northern border of the CWA Saturday evening. ECMWF has a slower progression with the front reaching the region early Sunday morning. Either progression will give way to "cooler" temperatures for Sunday. Sadly, these cooler temperatures are not expected to continue. An upper ridge will begin to build over western CONUS early next week. Height and thickness increases due to the upper ridging will aide in warming temperature to the 90s to lower 100s. We could even see record breaking heat Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

So far this morning, low CIGS have stayed away from the TAF sites. However, there is still a low chance of MVFR CIGS affecting KLBB and KPVW this morning. Another round of low CIGS will be possible at the very end of this TAF period at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>023-027- 028.