textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Warmer Friday with another chance for showers and thunderstorms, some severe, through the afternoon and evening. - Potential for showers and thunderstorms everyday through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Current radar imagery shows lingering storms across southern portions of the Caprock. As they continue east across the region, they are expected to dissipate. Once the storms clear out of the area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the 50s across the region with light southerly winds. Early Friday morning, an upper trough will swing across central CONUS. An embedded shortwave following the upper trough will cross over the Rockies triggering the development of a lee surface low across the NM/CO border. An associated dryline will push eastward into the region early in the afternoon, however models indicate it will stall just west of the I-27 corridor. Southeasterly surface flow ahead of the dryline will usher in moisture from the gulf giving way to dewpoint in the 50s to 60s. With plentiful moisture and low-level convergence along the dryline, shower and thunderstorms will be possible beginning mid Friday afternoon. The aforementioned upper trough will push a cold front through the Central Plains through the day Friday. It is progged to reach our CWA and intersect with the dryline just before sunset. Shower and thunderstorm potential will continue into the evening with convergence along the intersection of these two boundaries.

Through Friday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on the Caprock, just west of the I-27 corridor before combining into a line as the dryline and cold front intersect. This line of thunderstorms will continue east across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Sufficient instability along and just east of the dryline for the afternoon will give way to the development of severe thunderstorms. With CAPE values between 1500-1800 J/kg, we could expect quarter size hail and gusts up to 60 mph. Stronger wind gusts are possible with soundings showing an inverted v indicating potential for virga bombs during the afternoon. These virga showers have the potential of producing wind gusts of 70+ mph. The potential for virga showers decreases early Friday evening as the boundaries intersect. If the scattered storms form into a line along the boundaries, the main hazard will be wind with gusts of 70+ mph possible. The threat for up to quarter size hail would persist with the line of storms. Much of the thunderstorm activity is expected to clear out of the region around midnight as the cold front completely pushes through the region. However, chances for isolated thunderstorms continues overnight into Saturday. Severe potential will be low with these isolated storms, however some small hail and rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

As for temperatures during the day, warming will continue into Friday with highs around 80 across the far southern Texas Panhandle to lower 90s across the southern South Plains. Light southerly winds will start off the day. As the dryline pushes through the region, winds will shift to the west to southwest behind the boundary and southeast in front of the boundary. As the cold front pushes through the region in the evening, winds will shift to the northeast. Friday night will be similar temperature wise to Thurday's overnight period. Lows will be in the lower 50s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle up to lower 60s over the southern Rolling Plains where clouds look to prevail most of the overnight period hindering radiational cooling.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

By Saturday, flow aloft will begin to weaken as mean mid/upper level troughing shifts eastward and a weak ridge attempts to build over the desert SW. Although models are in poor agreement regarding the day-to-day specifics of the upper level flow over our area, consensus does still favor plenty moisture remaining in place. This combined with continuing weak southeasterly surface flow is likely to support at least a few isolated showers and storms over West TX on both Saturday and Sunday. There could be a few weak disturbances cresting the ridge aloft which may increase convective coverage especially on Saturday into Saturday night, but the probability of any type of organized severe convection appears low at this time given the weak flow aloft. On Monday, the weak upper ridge to our west will quickly flatten as a series of shortwave troughs moves over the western CONUS. Flow aloft over our area will consequently strengthen and turn more southwesterly through the early week period, with total column moisture progged to remain relatively robust as well. This setup will favor a continuation of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms especially as weak surface upslope flow continues as well. Model consensus generally favors Tuesday and Tuesday night as the period with the most widespread precipitation coinciding with a shortwave trough axis moving overhead, with storm chances shifting eastward through the rest of the week. This pattern will also keep temperatures near seasonal averages throughout the extended with highs generally in the 80s each day.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

IFR CIGs are expected to affect KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW through the predawn hours today, with CIGs gradually lifting and dispersing to MVFR/VFR by the late morning hours. Winds will remain southeast before temporarily veering southwestward as clouds lift, with winds returning to the southeast early this afternoon. There is an increasing potential for TSTMs to affect all terminals this afternoon and evening. PROB30 groups have been assigned to the TAFs for this cycle. Low CIGs/VSBYs are then forecast to return to the terminals near the end of the TAF period.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.