textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 503 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Strong southwest to west winds this afternoon creating elevated and critical fire weather conditions area wide.

- Cooler this weekend, with increasing precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Partly cloudy skies and breezy SW winds will persist overnight. The latter of which will moderate low temperatures, in the 50s and even 60s off the Caprock. A broad upper trough will dig into the Rockies through the day Friday leading to the development of a ~997 mb surface low centered over western Kansas by the afternoon. This will bring an increase further increase in winds, highest occurring on the Caprock. Sustained winds up to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph are expected. Combined with the single digit humidities, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas on the Caprock from late Friday morning through the evening, with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement off the Caprock. A wide range of high temperatures will be in order, from the upper 60s over the far SW Panhandle to the mid 80s off the eastern portions of the Caprock. Winds will diminish and turn more westerly into the evening. A cold front will move though Saturday morning, switching winds back to northerly.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper low will split from the aforementioned through and track southwestward through Saturday. Northerly winds will persist through the day behind the cold front and much cooler high temperatures are expected in the mid 50s to low 60s. Slight rain chances have been retained for the far southern Rolling Plains, however even that is optimistic. The upper low will stall off Baja California on Sunday. A large swath of precipitation will extend from Gulf all the way to the northeast CONUS, however other than NAM clipping the southern Rolling Plains, it is expected to stay south of the area. Winds will return to light southerlies and highs will slightly recover from Saturday into the low 70s. The upper low will not make much progress on Monday and a generally warm and dry day is expected with increased southerly winds and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The low will finally begin to move eastward on Tuesday at which time our area well see the best SW Pacific moisture advection and thus rainfall chances. Models significantly diverge thereafter with the GFS taking a much slower track and keeping the low closed essentially all the way into the end of next week whereas ECMWF shows it becoming an open wave and departing eastward much more quickly. In any case, given the uncertainty, broad brush PoPs continue in the latest forecast for the mid-week time frame.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

In the immediate term, patchy low CIGS and visbys have developed west of KLBB and KPVW early this morning. This activity is expected to remain very patchy but may briefly impact the terminals with IFR conditions. The expected coverage and duration is expected to be too sparse and short lived to include in the TAF at the moment. Strong southwest to west winds will develop this afternoon at all TAF sites possibly bringing light visby restrictions due to blowing dust. A cold front will then move through late tonight into early Saturday morning shifting winds to the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Caprock on Friday, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph (highest over the far SW Texas Panhandle) and gusts to 40 mph. Humidities will fall into the single digits. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from late Friday morning through Friday evening for areas on the Caprock. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect elsewhere off the Caprock.

A cold front will move through Saturday morning and winds will switch to northerly around 15-20 mph. Given the cooler, dry airmass, fire weather concerns for Saturday are low.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027.