textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, remain in the forecast for tonight mainly across the southern Rolling Plains.

- Thursday night through Saturday evening looks wet with the potential for healthy rain amounts and the possibility of some accumulating snowfall.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Water Vapor imagery currently depicts the upper level storm system that is causing the ongoing convection across the mid to upper Mississippi River Valley centered over the Central Plains region. Where it is expected to keep tracking northeast, into the Great Lakes region through the overnight hours. Meanwhile off to the west, a secondary trough centered over the Desert Southwest continues to spiral where it will begin to track easterly into the Four Corners region by early Thursday morning. As this trough moves closer to the region over the next 12 hours, we will begin to see southwesterly flow aloft increase, as the H5 (60+ knot) and H2 (125+ knot) jet streaks sets up near the far southern Texas Panhandle and Texas Panhandle region. As these jets set up, the FA will continue to see an increase in moisture as southwesterly flow aloft advects moisture in from the H2 and H5 jet. Additionally, this will bring increased amounts of lift to the region, with the main source of lift fixated across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Unfortunately, chances for precipitation across most of the FA will be limited, with inverted-v forecast soundings displaying a very pronounced dry-sub cloud layer and the saturated column of moisture from the H2 to H6 level. Instability across much of the area also looks to be quite low, with most CAMS showing MUCAPE values generally around 100 J/kg for the area, with the exception of the southeastern Rolling Plains with values around 300 to 750 J/kg. With the NAM being the outlier showing values up to 1500 J/kg across this area. Given these caveats, NBM widespread chance to likely PoPs continue to look too high given the lack of moisture and instability. Therefore have nudged PoPs to align better with MOS with slight chance across much of the area, and chance across the southeastern Rolling Plains.

If showers and thunderstorms develop, they look to quickly diminish around daybreak Thursday. Cloud cover is expected to linger across much of the area through the afternoon, which will work to limit diurnal heating and allow for a slightly cooler day with temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. A surface low will set up across the NM/TX state line, influencing breezy southwest wind speeds across the Caprock, while wind speeds off the Caprock will remain more southeasterly with the surface high positioned across the ArkLaTx region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The long term portion of the forecast begins with increasing precipitation chances as models continue to advertise a significant deep cyclone developing over the Desert Southwest with increasing deep, moist ascent over the southern High Plains beginning Thursday night downstream from the cyclone/low. The initial onset of rain showers occurs Thursday night and persists into Friday in association with the initial ascent in the warm advection zone ahead of the low. After a potential lull in activity Friday afternoon, lift increases again as the parent cyclone begins to move eastward from Arizona. Finally the third phase of high precipitation chances comes Saturday as the low moves out over the High Plains with a mature deformation axis moving over/developing over at least a portion of the forecast area. The high PoPs in the NBM and in MOS look valid in this period with no adjustments needed at this time. Precipitation phase becomes a concern Saturday with the deformation axis. Cold air in place across the forecast area behind a significant cold front that will pass through the forecast area Friday combined with dynamic cooling and precipitation falling will chill the air during the afternoon with falling temperatures expected. The coldest surface temperatures on the Caprock should be associated with the heaviest precipitation in the deformation axis with a high possibility of accumulating snowfall. Currently the track and strength of the low is in pretty good agreement with the global models while the SREF continues its trend with being too far north while the WRF-NAM appears too quick in opening up the low. This latter mechanism will happen at some point as the remaining energy with the system gets caught up in the flow leading into a northern stream short wave trough moving across the upper Midwest, but a slower trend with this type of system is favored at this time. For now that best chance of measurable/accumulating snow looks to be across the northwestern counties, but that could shift southward if the storm shifts farther southward than currently progged. Temperatures for Saturday have been narrowed from the blend, raised a bit for morning lows and lowered for daytime highs due to cloud cover, cold advection, etc. Overall QPF totals could be rather healthy with prolonged precipitation chances expected and increasing deep moisture contributed by advection ahead of the system and the system bringing moisture with it. Current forecasts are mostly in a range of 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid and liquid equivalent. This type of system is often a slower to make an egress, so increased PoPs into Saturday evening per the NBM look fine.

Warmer, drier, and sunnier weather is expected behind the system Sunday through Wednesday with a period of northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico and California.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Convection will be possible south and east of the terminals before 12Z, but this activity should not affect the terminals. Rain showers will be possible after 00Z at all terminals, but there is low confidence at this time in coverage. There is higher confidence in coverage after 06Z beyond the current TAF cycle.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.