textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the South Plains area late Sunday afternoon and expand east across the Rolling Plains through the evening.

- Severe thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gust and locally heavy rain are possible Sunday.

- Hot temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances continue through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The couple of showers this evening have cleared the area. No more storms are expected and the rest of the overnight hours will be quiet. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight will bring unseasonably warm temperatures. Lows in the 70s are expected across much of the region. Areas across the southern Rolling Plains will see lows in the lower 80s. Current surface observations indicate breezy southerly winds of 15-25 mph across the region. These breezy winds will persist overnight through the early morning hours.

Another hot day with better storm chances is expected Sunday. On the upper levels, ridging across the Gulf states will amplify over southeastern CONUS. At the same time, an upper trough will amplify across western CONUS. The amplification of these two upper disturbances will shift mostly zonal to southwesterly flow aloft. On the surface, an amplifying lee trough across Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient bringing breezy southwesterly winds to the start of the day. Southwesterly flow will give way to triple temperature highs across much of the region Sunday afternoon. A dryline will push eastward into the region Sunday afternoon and is expected to stall in the vicinity of the I-27 corridor. Winds behind the dryline will remain to the west to southwest, however surface flow in front of the dryline will shift to the south to southeast. Southeasterly flow could bring in low-level moisture from the Gulf, however lower levels still look to be dry with dewpoints off the Caprock in the upper 50s through the afternoon. As the dryline retreats back west later Sunday evening, dew points recover up to the lower to mid 60s.

Convergence along the dryline, convective temperatures being reached, and good mid to upper-level moisture will bring another round of scattered thunderstorms to the region late Sunday afternoon through evening. Location of initial thunderstorm development will be dependent on the placement of the dryline. CAMs indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the dryline on the Caprock later in the afternoon. As the dryline stalls, thunderstorms are expected to expand east off the Caprock through the evening. Severe thunderstorms will be possible, however the main hazard expected is strong wind gusts. Drier lower levels indicates the thunderstorms will be elevated bring strong winds up to 70 mph. There looks to be decent potential for downbursts with these thunderstorms as soundings are indicating DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and lower shear values around 20 m/s. Small to quarter size hail will be possible, however the potential for severe hail is low. Storms are expected to clear out before midnight, however could see some rain showers overnight similar to what we have seen the past few nights. Otherwise, Sunday night will be another warm one with lows in the 70s and mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The key points to the long term forecast are the continuation of hot temperatures and daily storm chances through mid-week. Flow aloft will vary between south to southwest through much of the week. The upper trough that was mentioned in the short term discussion will move northeast towards the central Canada while the upper ridging remains stagnant over southeastern CONUS. At the same time, a secondary upper trough will track south along the California coast before shifting east to northeast across the Desert Southwest. This regime will lower heights over the region, "cooling" temperatures. However, predominately moderate to breezy southerly surface flow everyday this week will keep highs in the 90s with some localized areas off the Caprock still seeing triple digits. Multiple passing upper shortwaves will bring storm chances everyday through mid-week. Previous forecasts had daily storm chances through the end of the week, however models now indicate the aforementioned upper ridging will build back west across Texas, effectively drying out the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A strong low level jet will create LLWS at all TAF sites through early Sunday morning. VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon through the evening hours with highest chances at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.