textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend in the mid 90s to lower triple digits.

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the Caprock Saturday afternoon through late evening.

- Saturday thunderstorms may become severe with the risk of quarter sized hail, strong winds up to 75 mph, and localized flooding concerns.

- Chances for precipitation will continue Sunday through Tuesday of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A quiet forecast is shaping up for the remainder of the night across the Caprock regions with much of the precipitation off to our north and west. Southerly winds will continue overnight, which in addition to Tds progged in the 40s and 50s will keep overnight lows mild and muggy. Heading into Independence Day, the trend continues for a wetter forecast for portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Although we expect most precipitation to exist during the afternoon, a few models are highlighting a few isolated storms developing along a southward progressing outflow boundary from this evening storms. Confidence remains low in this but it is something we will be watching for over the next few hours. Synoptically speaking, the upper level ridge will continue to expand westward as it flatten while simultaneously an 595 centers itself near the TX/NM state line. As geopotential heights and thickness values increase across the region in response to the H5 high, we can expect a continued warming trend with 850mb temperatures ranging from 25C to 30C across the FA. As we become well mixed by the afternoon, we can expect temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and lower triple digits. Although it will be hot, heat advisory level conditions in addition to record breaking heat is not expected to develop across the area. This will be in part to the rich moisture that has been quite stubborn across the area, keeping us a bit on the cooler side. However, a few localized spots of the Caprock may see temperatures inch close to 105 degrees.

Attention then turns to the potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as a surface trough digs southward into eastern New Mexico, enhancing low-level convergence along the TX/NM state line. Additionally, the surface trough will promote upslope flow and aid in the southerly transport of gulf moisture into the region. Maintaining above normal Tds for this time of year in the 50s and 60s across the Caprock regions. Along with the surface trough, a weak perturbation translating down the eastern periphery of the upper high may provide enough large scale ascent. However, the surface trough and associated convergence zone will serve as the primary focus for thunderstorm development. Despite the weak large scale ascent and modest shear environment, the combination of increased low-level moisture and localized convergence may be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm development near state line by early afternoon. The increasingly moist airmass and hot temperatures will support strong instability values with MLCAPE values ranging around 1700 J/kg to 2300 J/kg, along with MLLR around 8 C/km, and PWAT's around an inch. Suggesting that storms that develop and track into our area from the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will have the potential to become severe. Main threats will be strong winds up to 75 mph given the evident dry sub-cloud layer on forecast sounding in addition to strong DCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg. While the overall hail threat appears to be on the lower end considering weak shear profiles, nonetheless a few instances of quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out with stronger storm cores that grow upscale. Steering flow will be weak, which given the abundant moisture in place could lead to a few localized flooding concerns where storms become parked over. Given the weak flow, we expect storms to remain across our northwest counties, likely struggling to make it into the I-27 corridor. Activity will wane through the late evening with storms clearing just before midnight as the boundary layer begins to recover. Although not expected, we cannot rule out the chance of a few isolated storms developing overnight as lingering outflows track through the area. If this happens, we could see storms grow upscale and tap into the elevated instability in place as a weak LLJ ramps up. As far as temperatures and sky cover, HREF probabilities are hinting at the potential of low-clouds filling in across the region after midnight while temperatures remain on the mild and muggy side once again in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Hot with daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms will be the primary message for the extended forecast. Similar to the previous forecast, guidance are still highlighting better chances for precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening as the upper high shifts west and centers itself over the Desert Southwest. Monsoonal moisture wrapping around the eastern side of the upper high will translate into the region, counteracting with the weak perturbations tracking within the northwest flow aloft. As far as temperatures to start the extended, it will remain hot across the region, however we will begin to see a weakening trend of the upper high in response to a shortwave trough tracking through the Intermountain West into the High Plains through the week. As a result, highs will be one to two degrees cooler Sunday with a similar trend through Tuesday, with highs still being hot in the 90s and lower triple digits. As far as precipitation, we will continue to see moisture wrapping around the mid to upper level high to our west which in combination with moisture upslope flow each afternoon should be enough to promote higher terrain convection developing in eastern New Mexico and tracking into areas across the Caprock each afternoon through Tuesday. Ensembles are in agreement with the chances for more widespread precipitation continuing late next week as an H5 shortwave tracks into the Southern Plains region and taps into the moisture in place.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for KLBB and KPVW Saturday afternoon, however confidence is not high enough to include in the current TAFs. Otherwise, VFR and generally light southerly winds will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.