textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon to 8 PM for much of the forecast area.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will bring elevated to critical fire danger to the region Saturday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper trough passing across the Rockies. This has triggered the development of a lee side low. We can expect winds to start ramping up in the next couple of hours as the pressure gradient tightens from the lee trough. Wind speeds are expected to reach up to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through this afternoon. The greatest wind speeds are expected across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Can also expect patchy blowing dust for the same area. Low stratus that was prevalent this morning has mostly dissipated leaving sunny skies across the region. Current temperatures in the 70s will continue to warm to the lower 80s across northwestern zones to mid 90s over souther Rolling Plains. Dry conditions with minimum RH values reaching as low as 6 percent and windy conditions will bring critical fire danger to much of the region today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for the South Plains, much of the Rolling Plains, and the far southern Texas Panhandle from noon until 8 PM today.

Winds are expected to decrease through the evening beginning just after sunset and remain light overnight as the trough moves off, loosening the pressure gradient. Should be a quiet and mild night with lows ranging from lower 40s over the extreme far southwestern Texas Panhandle up to lower 60s over southern Rolling Plains. Mostly zonal flow will fill in aloft Friday as the upper trough shifts slightly north over central Canada. Friday will be a quiet day with moderate westerly winds during the afternoon. Models indicate a weak front will reach northern portions of the region early Friday morning, slightly cooling temperatures, however highs remain in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Elevated fire danger will be possible Friday afternoon, mainly on the Caprock, as dry conditions continue with RH values reaching as low as 7 percent.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Fire danger will continue through the weekend and possibly the start of next week with no rain chances in sight. A series of upper shortwaves passing over the Rockies through the weekend will trigger the development of lee side troughs bringing breezy winds each afternoon with the strongest wind speeds expected Sunday. Currently, forecasted wind speeds for Sunday are just below advisory levels, however as we get closer, a wind advisory may be issued for future forecasts. RH values are expected to prevail around single digits to lower teens each afternoon. Temperatures through the weekend remain warm in the mid 80s to upper 90s each afternoon through Tuesday. Windy and dry conditions as well as warm temperatures will bring elevated to critical fire danger to much of the region over the weekend, especially Sunday, and the start of next week. We could see a slight "cool down" by mid-next week with models indicating a weak cold front passing through the region Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Breezy southwest to west winds this afternoon will decrease after sunset and veer slightly to the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of the area today. Most critical conditions will occur over the far southern Texas Panhandle where sustained westerly winds could reach 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along with widespread humidities in the single digits. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect outside of the southern Rolling Plains from Noon to 8 PM with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement elsewhere except Stonewall County. Winds will diminish overnight into Friday and a weak cold front will slightly bring down temperatures. However elevated fire weather conditions remain possible on the Caprock with humidities persisting in the single digits.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible each day from Saturday through Tuesday, with most widespread favorable conditions on Sunday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>036- 039>041.