textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Cloud cover is currently increasing over our area in southwesterly flow ahead of an upper trough tracking over the Intermountain West. As such, highs will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, although still slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s on the Caprock to low 80s off the Caprock. A resultant surface low will develop downstream in the lee of the Rockies this afternoon. Southerly winds will subsequently increase, potentially gusting up to 30 mph for areas on the Caprock. Winds will diminish overnight into Saturday, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Split upper flow will develop on Saturday with a low becoming cutoff over Arizona. As is moves northeastward over the Four Corners region, the moisture fetch out ahead of it looks to reach the TX/NM border by evening.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread eastward overnight Saturday into Sunday, but should primarily stay along and west of I-27. The severe threat is low, however locally heavy rainfall is possible, particularly with training storms. Modest steering flow however should keep them moving at a decent pace. Once the low reaches central Colorado, it will take a more easterly track and associated precipitation should overspread much of the area by Sunday evening. The remains some uncertainty with regards to the exact timing, however overall totals do not appear to be significant. Current model average indicates around 0.5-0.75" along the TX/NM border and gradually tapering off to the east. Off and on showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday, before diminishing in coverage through Tuesday as the low finally departs off to our north and east. The associated cold front does not appear to be as strong now as was indicated on previous models. There will be a slight cool-down, however now highs look to only fall into upper 60s and low 70s Sunday though Tuesday before returning to the mid 70s by mid-week under a ridge.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours. There is confidence of lowered ceilings and MVFR conditions between late morning and early afternoon tomorrow affecting KLBB, and potentially reaching the edge of KPVW. These conditions are expected to clear out through the afternoon for all stations.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.