textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Showers and storms return this weekend into next week, favoring areas on the Caprock this weekend before expanding area-wide early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday night) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The amplified upper pattern remains in place, with a ridge axis extending from the south-central Plains to the Great Lakes and a deep trough over the west coast. This system has brought severe storms and instances of flooding to AZ/NM in recent days, but will be quite slow to progress into our forecast area.

Dewpoints across the FA were in the low to mid 50s Thurs eve, but as a meridionally oriented LLJ kicks in overnight models depict a plume of higher dewpoint air (upper 50s/low 60s) advecting northward from South Texas. This introduces potential for stratus or fog development Fri AM, particularly across the South Plains where the moisture advection will be focused. HREF members aren't too bullish about the fog potential (less than 20% chance), but a few early evening runs of the HRRR depicted pockets of dense fog. HREF members are more indicative of stratus, however, with a 60-80% chance of ceilings below 2 kft AGL along and west of I-27 Friday morning.

During the day on Friday, pressure falls occur over eastern MT, with MSLP falling to around 998 mb, which will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the Plains. Modestly breezy winds can be anticipated, with southerly winds sustained around 15-20 mph, gusting as high as 30 mph. Thicker cloud cover and subtle thickness decreases in response to the approaching upper trough favor slightly cooler temps on Fri compared to the previous two days. While precip activity draws closer to the forecast area, CAMs keep the activity focused across eastern NM on Fri, west of the TX/NM Border.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Deterministic models remain in pretty good agreement regarding the large scale pattern evolution through Tues. The main forecast trend continues to be a slower evolution of the upper low that cuts off over the SW US on Sat. This slower evolution translates to lower precip chances on Sat/Sun (especially off the Caprock). The upper low will also be weakening in time, so this slow trend means lower accumulation probs and lower impacts anticipated compared to previous forecasts. The highest PWAT values will be on the Caprock on Sun, with values around 1.15-1.25", and this time period offers the best window for flooding with any training storms. By Mon- Tues, PWAT values are closer to 1", which is still above normal but not quite as anomalous. Latest ensemble guidance gives a 30% chance of total rainfall exceeding 1" in Lubbock/Brownfield (through Tuesday), increasing to a 60% chance at Friona, but both of these values are lower than previous cycles. The probability of 1" of rain is even lower off the Caprock.

This system will result in temps trending cooler, in the 70s area- wide on Sat followed by mid 60s to mid 70s Sunday into next week. The breezy southeasterly winds continue through the weekend. Model solutions start to diverge beyond the middle of next week, but the upper pattern seems to stay active with additional troughs moving onshore the Pacific NW, perhaps supporting additional precip chances locally during the final days of October.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Southerly winds are expected to pick up through the afternoon and early evening hours. MVFR clouds will fill in near KLBB from the south in the next couple of hours, however are not expected to impact conditions. These low clouds are not expected near KPVW or KCDS.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.