textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered (15-30% coverage) thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible.

- Hot and dry conditions return this coming week, with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s starting Tuesday or Wednesday and continuing into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

It was an active Saturday afternoon/evening thanks in part to abundant moisture, a lingering mid-level disturbance nearby and more significant heating/instability than recent days. Although deep layer shear and steering flow was minimal, PWATs at and above 1.5 inches fueled torrential rain and several wet microbursts through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Instantaneous rainfall rates of 3 to 6+ inches an hour were observed with the strongest cores, and a few locations measured 1 to 2+ inches in the course of tens of minutes. In addition, several severe-caliber wind gusts accompanied the most robust cells, including a peak wind gust of 70 mph at the Childress West Texas Mesonet (WTM). Numerous outflows were wandering the region late this Saturday evening, but rain- cooled air had stabilized the South Plains region. Where the atmosphere hasn't been overturned, a few heavy thunderstorms continue to develop to the south and east of the CWA as of 03Z. Closer to home, interacting outflows have brought renewed shower activity to parts of the central South Plains late this evening, despite limited instability. In fact, a few select locations over southwest Lubbock County have recently gotten a quick quarter inch, even in the "worked over" air. This activity likely won't last very long, but a few showers will be possible through the overnight, though additional impactful weather is not anticipated.

Given the meager tropospheric winds in place, the overall weather pattern won't change much on Sunday. The weakness aloft is forecast to linger nearby, perhaps shifting southwestward slightly. Moisture will remain abundant, though instability may be down slightly from Saturday after being worked over by all of the convection Saturday afternoon/evening. That said, strong heating should result in another round of convection Sunday afternoon and evening. If NWP is correct, coverage may be less than Saturday, but the most intense storms will again be of the pulse-type and capable of torrential rainfall and strong to severe-caliber wind gusts. Otherwise, temperatures not change much from Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

An upper ridge amplifying across the Intermountain West and centered over the central Rockies will gradually "nudge" the mid-level weakness westward early this coming week. If the slower ECMWF-led guidance is correct, the weakness and lingering moisture could be close enough to provide one last round of convection across our western counties Monday afternoon and evening, though a bulk of the guidance is less optimistic. Regardless, after Monday medium range NWP is on board with the upper ridge/high nosing into the central and southern High Plains, where it will persist through the week and likely into next weekend. This will effectively shut off any precipitation chances while also lifting temperatures quickly to the hot side of average. At this point, widespread 90s and lower triple digits look like a sure thing as early as Tuesday, then continue through the rest of the extended. Locations off the Caprock will likely threaten heat advisory levels (105 degrees or higher) as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, and highs will remain at or above 105 through the end of the weekend into next weekend. Even on the Caprock, triple digit highs are possible by late week, though whether or not they'll be high enough to warrant heat-related products is less certain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A few showers continue across portions of the southern South Plains this morning and are expected to remain south of all terminals through much of the morning. Patchy fog has been detected in the vicinity of KCDS this morning, which may threaten to bring brief MVFR to IFR CIGs, although we expect this to be short lived. As a result a TEMPO for BR was added. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, primarily near KLBB and KPVW. However, confidence in the timing and coverage remains too low to warrant a mention in this TAF cycle.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.