textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Gradual warm up expected through the weekend.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms return mid-week, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A nice and pleasant Saturday remains on track. Upper ridging has filled in over western CONUS and is expected to gradually deamplify as it pushes east towards the Texas Panhandle. Today is the start of a multi-day gradual warm up through the first part of next week. With height and thickness increases as well as light westerly surface flow, current temperatures of upper 50s to mid 60s will continue to warm today to the 70s across the region. Otherwise, the rest of today will be quiet. Mild and quiet conditions will continue overnight. Winds remain light, however shift to the southwest. Slightly warmer tonight compared to last night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Pleasant conditions continue into Sunday. The upper ridging will continue to deamplify over the region, however due to slight thickness increases and southwesterly surface flow, temperatures continue to warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A lee surface low will develop over western Kansas early in the afternoon. In response, the pressure gradient will tighten bringing breezy southwesterly winds through the rest of the day Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The breezy southwesterly winds will slightly weaken overnight Sunday through before ramping back up to breezy early Monday as the surface low persists over central CONUS. Slight thickness increases from the upper ridge overhead as well as breezy southwesterly surface flow, temperatures continue to warm with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s expected. Elevated fire weather will be possible Monday with warm temperatures, breezy southwesterly winds, and RH values as low as 13 percent. The surface low will get pushed east by mid-week as a cold front pushes through the Central Plains. Models remain in disagreement about the timing of the front. ECMWF shows a faster progression with the front pushing through much of the region Tuesday while GFS keeps the slower track with the front pushing through early Wednesday. This will cool temperatures for Wednesday, however temperatures for Tuesday remain uncertain. If the front is slower in progression, breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through Tuesday and temperatures will remain warm giving way to possible elevated fire danger during the afternoon hours. However, we could see cooler highs and a northerly wind shift if the front is quicker in progression and pushes through the region during the day Tuesday.

On the upper levels, an upper trough will swing across western CONUS shifting winds aloft to the southwest ushering in subtropical moisture to the mid-to-upper levels. As the trough approaches the Texas Panhandle, an upper jet on the leading edge of the trough will pass over the region late Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return mid-week due to forcing from the front, upper level forcing from the passing jet, and sufficient moisture. However, the upper trough will pass across the northern Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle keeping the better chances for precipitation to the north of our CWA. Another passing upper shortwave will prolong precipitation chances into Wednesday, mainly over the far southern Texas Panhandle. The latter half of next week looks to warm up and dry out again as models indicate an upper low will move in over Baja Mexico Thursday and remain stagnant over the weekend keeping flow aloft mostly zonal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.