textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through early Saturday morning.

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather concerns next week, with Tuesday seeing the most favorable conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1028 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking west to east off the Caprock ahead of an upper level trough. Moisture parameters remain elevated with dewpoints in the 50s and PWATs exceeding one inch. Nonetheless, the lack of much dry air mixing in and elevated winds aloft eroding the CAPE should inhibit any severe potential. That said, a few storms may produce gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and small hail. Highest rainfall totals remain expected off the Caprock with 0.5 to 1 inches seeming most reasonable, with locally higher amounts possible where stronger storms occur. As the low begins to occlude over the Oklahoma Panhandle, the dry slot will build over our area and any remaining precipitation off the Caprock should end in the 6-9 AM time frame. Breezy west winds will develop in the wake of the low. These will turn northerly into the evening before diminishing overnight. Skies should generally clear through the day and combined with the downsloping winds, will allow for well- above average high temperatures ranging generally from the mid 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers are expected to develop on the backside of the aforementioned low Saturday afternoon/evening, mainly off the Caprock, however should be relatively fast-moving and not amount to much.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1028 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light northerly winds will turn south through the day Sunday and a pleasant day is expected with sunny skies and highs near 70. Increased southwesterly flow Monday will allow for even warmer temperatures in the upper 70s. A broad upper trough digging into the Mountain West will lead to lee cyclogenesis in the Rockies. Although the center of the low will be well to the north over western Nebraska, we will still see breezy westerly winds and temperatures potentially reaching the mid 80s off the Caprock. This will also increase fire weather concerns with humidities in the teens. A second Colorado low will develop on Wednesday and although it will be farther south than the first one, it does not look to be as deep at ~995 mb compared to the previous ~990 mb. However, breezy westerly winds will again bring similar conditions as Tuesday. Temperatures will diminish by the end of the week as winds likewise diminish. No precipitation is expected at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the terminals early this morning. Although confidence is higher off the Caprock, chances for MVFR CIGs are possible at all terminals with the highest chances at KCDS. Additionally, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again after midnight, although confidence remains low along with the severe threat. Expect VFR CIGs to return to the terminals by mid-morning Saturday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.