textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Near seasonal normal temperatures in the 40s and 50s through Friday.

- Colder Saturday before mild temperatures resume next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Upper ridging will shift overhead this afternoon, allowing northwesterly flow aloft to prevail across the region. Meanwhile at the surface, the surface high centered over the LBB area will surge southward as a lee trough develops across northeastern NM. As a result, post frontal northerly winds this morning will back out of the west then southwest through the afternoon becoming borderline breezy across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Expect speeds around 5 to 15 mph with the higher speeds across our northwestern counties. These warm downsloping winds combined with increased thickness and height values, in addition to clear skies overhead, will result in a much warmer day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Given we reached highs in the mid 40s yesterday with thick high clouds present through the early afternoon, NBM seemed a bit too cool with todays MaxT's. So we went ahead with the warmer CONSMOS guidance for highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. Nonetheless, remaining snowpack across the region should help keep us just below or around seasonal normal standards. Late this evening into the overnight period, high clouds will being to work their way into the area. This along with winds remaining elevated should help limit radiational cooling overnight, with lows much warmer in the 20s to low 30s expected. By Thursday morning, an upper level will wobble southeastward into portions of NE CONUS, while the southern periphery of the low extends southwestward. As this happens, the associated FROPA with this system will work its way southward into the region by Thursday morning. Winds will begin to shift out of the north around daybreak, with hi-resolution models in good agreement with the timing. In the wake of the front, mid-level height falls look to become decently packed, resulting in breezy wind speeds around 10 to 20 mph across the region. Despite the front, the cooler airmass will remain to our north, as the surface low looks to block the cooler air from filtering in. However, temperatures will remain cooler-near seasonal normals thanks to the northerly component to the wind with highs in the 50s expected.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Barring a quick shot of arctic air on Saturday, the extended forecast remains dry and seasonably mild through the first few days of February. The UA pattern transitions from weakly cyclonic NW flow on Friday to a flatter and weaker regime early next week. As a vigorous upper low rotates south from the western Great Lakes on Friday, a dome of arctic air will plunge south and reach our area as a backdoor front late Friday night or very early Saturday morning. Global ensembles are progging a 1048-1050 mb surface high in central KS by daybreak Saturday. This alone is concerning as the NBM is not doing this cold air enough justice, particularly as our 850 mb temps plummet to -6C to -10C. Oddly, the NBM came in with milder daytime highs for Saturday so this was traded for its 50th percentile to trend closer to the colder MOS numbers. Even if post-frontal stratus clears out Saturday afternoon, the cold dome won't budge until Sunday as the surface high shifts to the Upper Texas Coast.

Flat upper ridging arrives Sunday into Monday restoring milder temps, but this appears short lived as longwave ridging quickly overtakes the Pacific Coast resulting in another trough or low descending across the Great Plains by midweek. Arctic air appears to stay bottled up well to our north following this wave, so only a modest cooldown is expected by Wednesday with no real chances for precip at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.