textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 459 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Nice weather with mild temperatures continuing through Friday.

- Rain showers and a few storms are likely from Saturday through Sunday morning.

- Dry weather returns by Monday along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Another pleasant fall day is unfolding across the region courtesy of a large-amplitude upper ridge axis shifting quickly overhead. Clear skies and light westerly surface flow will bring us an afternoon of temperatures in the low to mid 70s, just a bit above normal for mid- Nov. Dry weather continues tonight, with winds gradually shifting to a more ESE direction by Friday morning as a weak backdoor cold front enters the region. Although we remain dry on Friday, the easterly surface flow and increasing high-level cloud cover ahead of our next weather system will result in a generally cooler day, with highs Friday afternoon likely to remain in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Rain chances return to the region by Saturday morning as a progressive shortwave trough transits just to our south. This should bring us a round of scattered light showers through the first half of the day, before a second round of heavier activity associated with a more potent trough arrives Saturday evening. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be relatively strong which could result in some locally heavy rainfall especially off the Caprock, but we still do not anticipate any flooding impacts given the overall quick- hitting nature of the system. Current forecast rainfall totals are lowest on the Caprock (less than a half inch), and are highest over the Rolling Plains where a few locations could pick up close to an inch by midday Sunday. Cloud cover and on-and-off showers will result in a relatively cool weekend with highs both Saturday and Sunday likely remaining in the 50s area-wide. The system will exit to our east by Sunday night, which will in turn allow a reinforcing cold front to pass through the region. Monday and Tuesday will therefore be the chilliest days of the upcoming week, with persistent low cloud cover likely to keep temperatures below 50 degrees each day. A slight warmup then arrives for the second half of the week, with rain chances returning Thursday and beyond.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Light winds will become variable overnight as the wind shifts to the south by Friday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.