textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Very warm temperatures continue through Tuesday with breezy southerly winds.

- A strong storm system will bring an unsettled weather pattern beginning Tuesday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms and flooding will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Short wave ridging will move east through the rest of today. This will bring an increase in southwest flow aloft with a deep upper level trough moving inland on the west coast. The approach of the upper level trough will induce rapid surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies centered in northeastern Colorado. A surface pressure trough will extend from the center of the surface cyclone southward through eastern New Mexico. the increased surface pressure gradient this afternoon will bring gusty south-southwesterly winds to the entire region. We will continue to see effects of this larger scale trough tonight through early Monday morning. A strong low level jet will increase this evening with 850mb wind speeds on the order of 40- 45kt. A low level theta-e axis will expand northward near the Texas/New Mexico state line. Moist ascent is depicted in the isentropic fields across this same region. This warm air advection may bring light showery activity from eastern New Mexico into the western South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle early Monday morning. CAM guidance further supports this solution.

Strong surface cyclogenesis will again occur in lee of the Rockies on Monday afternoon in response to the slow moving upper level trough across the western CONUS. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be as strong bringing lesser winds on Monday yet still into the breezy category. A slightly more westerly component to the winds will also allow temperatures to tick up a few more degrees.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Guidance is now showing the potential for convective development late in the afternoon on Monday into Tuesday evening. During the daytime on Monday, we will see height rises with height falls not arriving until the evening. Large scale ascent will still be lacking with the upper level trough axis still located over the Great Basin. The strongest jet level winds will be located from Baja California through Arizona all the way into the northern Plains. Additional warm air advection showery activity will be possible late Monday into early Tuesday with continued strong low level jet winds. However, some instability will be introduced bringing a low threat for thunder.

Tuesday afternoon will begin to see the stronger pattern of increased chances of convection. During the day on Tuesday, the center of the upper level trough will move out of the Great Basin into Utah passing north of the four-corners region. Height falls will occur during the day increasing large scale ascent. However, the upper level jet will still be located well to the west of the area across the Intermountain West. Models do indicate a weak embedded short wave moving through the southwest flow aloft which may be enough to initiate scattered convection. Low level moisture from the Gulf will surge northward in advance of the larger scale trough forming a dryline like feature near the Texas/New Mexico state line. Surface dew points are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday morning mixing out into the low to mid-60s in the afternoon. A very moist low level atmosphere and warm surface temperatures will lead to an increase in potential instability. Mid- level lapse rates will be fairly weak with values on the order of only 6 C/km due to a very moist atmosphere. Relatively low LCLs will be responsible for mixed layer instabilities on the order of 1000- 1500 J/kg. The highest potential for severe storms will be during the afternoon hours with all hazards possible. Also of note will be the potential of flooding from heavy rainfall. Moisture levels throughout the entire atmospheric column will increase beginning as early as this evening. By Tuesday, models are indicating 850mb mixing ratios as high as 15 g/kg which would place these values above the 99th percentile. Similarly, precipitable water values are in the same percentile range exceeding 1.50 inches for areas east of the I-27 corridor. The highest potential for heavy rainfall will come late in the evening into the early morning hours on Wednesday as stronger large scale ascent spreads overhead. The very slow movement of the trough will continue to bring lift during the day on Wednesday further extending precipitation chances. Model guidance continues to greatly diverge beyond Wednesday guiding to a low confidence forecast. A very strong front is still forecast for sometime late this week which could bring widespread morning temperatures in the 40s next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.