textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- A warming trend to begin Tuesday through Thursday, with record breaking heat possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Critical fire danger possible Wednesday, then again on Thursday.

- Cooler this weekend following a cold front early Friday morning with precipitation chances returning late Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

After a much cooler start to the work week, Tuesday will bring much warmer temperatures as H5 ridging begins to amplify over the western half of the CONUS as an upper high centers over Baja California late Monday night. The high will quickly shift eastward into the Desert Southwest by as early as Tuesday afternoon, leading to an increase in geopotential heights and thickness values across the Panhandle regions. At the surface, southeasterly winds overnight Monday into Tuesday morning will continue to veer out of the south to south- southwest in response to lee troughing developing in the Rockies. Models push this surface trough southward, digging into portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle by the afternoon, thus leading to (although weak) tightening pressure gradient. Winds speeds will remain light nonetheless generally less than 15 mph, with a few typical west texas breezes around 15 to 20 mph possible off the Caprock. Downsloping winds aiding in WAA into the region, combined with clearing skies will lead to a warm afternoon with 850 mb temperatures of 25C to 28C suggesting highs back in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Along with the return of warmer weather comes the return of elevated fire danger across the FA as warm southerly breezes and above normal temperatures aid in drying conditions, with minimum RH values dipping into the single digits during the afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 12 PM CDT through 8 PM CDT Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The warming trend will continue through Thursday as the ~590 dam upper level high continues to translate eastward through the Desert Southwest, parking over the Big Country by early Thursday morning.As a result, daily increases in thickness values combined with above normal climatological geopotential heights. Persistent west to southwest flow around the H7 and H8 levels will promote continued WAA, while subsidence provided by the upper high combined with downsloping surface winds further reinforce the warming trend as the boundary layer becomes well mixed during the afternoon. Wednesday looks to bring MaxTs in the mid to upper 90s, while Thursday looks to bring the hottest temperatures of the week and potentially the year area-wide. 850 mb temperatures Thursday afternoon on the order of 38C to 32C combined with breezy southwest winds with a deepening lee trough will likely aid in highs climbing into the triple digits area wide. Likely smashing records at both KLBB (92 degrees in 2020) and KCDS (96 degrees in 2020) with highs forecasted in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees at both sites. Unfortunately, precipitation chances remain essentially NIL, though some global models continue to hint at a rogue ridge-riding storm skirting down the eastern periphery where meager moisture may be trapped beneath the upper ridge. Although, this seems more unlikely than not and will hold on to a dry forecast with no mentionable PoPs through the work week. Critical fire danger will return Wednesday through Friday as temperatures become unseasonably hot while relative humidities drop into teens each afternoon.

There remains light at the end of the tunnel as ensemble guidance along with deterministic guidance hinting at a potential cool down Friday as a FROPA swings through the region as longwave troughing encompasses the eastern CONUS. As of now, this front looks to remain dry as it passes through the region, with breezy to windy post frontal winds expected to prevail in its wake. In fact, MOS guidance is already hinting at Wind Advisory level winds behind the front, therefore NBM wind speeds will likely need to be adjusted in future forecasts if this continues to hold. Towards the end of the weekend and forecast period, potential for precipitation looks to return as the upper high shifts east while a disturbance ripples across the Four Corners. Depending on the track of this shortwave, we may even see the chance for precipitation return to the area late Sunday although details remain a bit murky to dive into specifics at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.