textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Windy conditions and well above average temperatures will continue over much of the Caprock today.

- Dry and warm into next week, with near-record high temperatures forecast Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Wind will be the primary weather element of concern over the next 24 hours as a pair of upper level disturbances transits over the region. The first of these upper shortwaves was observed exiting to our east into Oklahoma late Thursday evening, with the surface response taking the form of an elongated and relatively deep trough extending along the Red River valley during the overnight hours. This will keep west winds on the breezy side through early Friday morning, which will in turn result in a very warm overnight period by January standards as Friday morning lows only fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

The second of the above-mentioned upper level shortwaves observed over the Great Basin late Thursday evening will deepen slightly as it dives southeastward, and is progged to emerge over the TX Panhandle by sunset. This second upper shortwave will induce a strong surface response in the form of a rapidly deepening lee trough over NE NM and the adjacent TX Panhandle by early afternoon. This will combine with both the remnant surface trough axis over N TX and diurnal mixing into a 30-40 kt 700mb wind max to result in a windy and warm day on Friday. The strongest winds will focus over southern and western portions of the Caprock, where a period of sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph is expected from late morning through the early afternoon hours. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM until 6 PM for much of the western South Plains. Otherwise, the downslope component to the surface flow and little cloud cover will result in a very warm day, with the record high of 77 degrees at Lubbock last set in 2009 within reach. Although the airmass will not be particularly dry by West TX standards, winds this strong will nevertheless result in elevated fire danger across most of the Caprock this afternoon as well. After sunset, a few light rain showers over the TX Panhandle within the center of the upper trough may sneak into northern portions of the forecast area, but these currently look likely to diminish while still to our north, so will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Although the evening will remain breezy, winds will weaken fairly quickly after midnight with chillier (but still above normal) lows expected heading into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Longwave ridging will dominate the upper air pattern over the CWA for the majority of the forecast period, with above-normal high temperatures forecast through the end of next week. The subtropical ridge will peak in amplitude Saturday, and will gradually dampen through the middle of next week, with near-neutral geopotential height tendencies Saturday through Tuesday. Mild temperatures are forecast Saturday, as the airmass will be recovering from the slight modification following the cold front Friday. Large-scale subsidence will keep boundary-layer mixing heights shallow over the weekend, with highs peaking in the upper 60s Saturday and into the lower 70s Sunday. High-altitude cirrus originating over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will overspread W TX Sunday into Monday, as an anticyclonically-curved 300 mb jet streak near 80 kt translates eastward towards the southern Great Plains ahead of an intense, shortwave trough digging into the Cascade Mountains. A mid-level impulse is forecast to eject ahead of the shortwave trough and translate through phasing jet streaks over the central Great Plains, and which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the vicinity of eastern CO and western KS. Winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile for Monday, which is in the middle of the MEX/ECX/ECM guidance, due to the strengthening of the mean flow aloft and the deepening surface low in the central Great Plains. The westerly winds Monday will aid in maximizing the effects of adiabatic compression, with near-record highs forecast. The aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to eventually move onshore the Pacific Coast by the middle of next week, but there are discrepancies among the global NWP data on timing. However, there is a consensus for the longwave ridge to deamplify by the end of next week, which would eventually allow the cyclonic flow to shift eastward into the southern Great Plains. The NBM has generated low PoPs across most of the CWA late next week, but confidence in rain remains low. ____________________________________________

Temperature records at LBB and CDS for Monday, January 5th, 2026:

Lubbock Airport Childress Airport Forecast Record Forecast Record Mon 78 82 (1927) 80 82 (1994) ____________________________________________

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR. Westerly winds will resume gusty status at LBB and PVW late this morning with gusts approaching 35 knots at LBB before tapering by sunset.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-027-028-033-034-039-040.