textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Very warm temperatures this weekend with daytime temperatures 20 degrees above seasonal averages.

- Slight precipitation chances next week, mainly off the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

In the near term, we will see a surge of higher low-level theta-e air over areas mostly off the caprock. This will likely bring a deck of low stratus northward out of the Permian Basin but guidance currently shows limited residence time over the Rolling Plains before dissipating after sunrise. An upper level ridge centered off the coast of Baja California will slowly move eastward through the day on Saturday maintaining northwest flow aloft. The slight eastward movement of the ridge will result in an increase in heights locally with continued very warm temperatures. At the surface, a surface trough will move into the area Saturday morning shifting winds to the north. Although winds will be northerly to northeasterly for the afternoon, temperatures will be on the order of 20 degrees above seasonal averages. Boundary layer mixing is still expected to be up to 750mb or so. However, winds within this layer will only max out around 20kt so surface winds will be fairly light on Saturday. On Saturday evening into Sunday morning, a weak short wave trough will move through the northwest flow across the Texas Panhandle. However, this short wave will only have the effect of increasing mid and high level cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Temperatures will cool slightly on Monday with a NE surface flow in the wake of a cold front. However, upper heights associated with a flat upper ridge will remain around 580 Dm and highs will remain generally in the mid-to-upper 70s. An upper low will become cutoff over the Rockies Tuesday and gradually track eastward through the day. While uncertainty still remains, any resultant showers and thunderstorms would be confined to far eastern areas off the Caprock. NBM will likely eventually catch up to this thinking should current model trends hold. The aforementioned low will lift off to the northeast across the Great Plains on Wednesday and again any precipitation should occur east of the CWA along the front as the associated surface low occludes. Likewise for Thursday ahead of another upper wave. A deep upper low will cutoff from the main flow pattern Friday into Saturday and looks to take an unusual southwesterly track. Should this occur, the position of the low would bring increased southwesterly flow into our area and precipitation chances would increase into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR will prevail at all sites through this TAF period. Winds will gradually turn northerly through the day as a weak surface trough tracks through the region, but with speeds at or below 15 kt.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.