textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and dry through the weekend leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

- Cooler weather to return early next week, before warm weather returns by mid-week next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Sustained northerly winds have fallen below 30 mph area wide, therefore the Wind Advisory was cancelled. Southwest winds by Thursday afternoon may have more punch and this will be inspected closer with tonight's forecast package, including the potential for fire weather headlines across our northern counties near a band of 20-25 mph winds.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cooler but windy day is expected to continue across the Caprock regions this afternoon. As of 11 AM CDT, the FROPA that brought the cooler and windy conditions with it, has made its way through the entire FA currently positioned along a line extending from Wichita Falls to Snyder to Fort Stockton. Wind speeds behind the front have remained relatively strong through the late morning into the early afternoon with sustained wind speeds ranging from 30 to 40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. We have also seen a few localized severe wind gusts with this FROPA with gusts up to 60 MPH primarily across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Continued boundary layer mixing through the afternoon will allow the stronger H8 winds to mix down to the surface, maintaining the windy speeds through the rest of the afternoon. Therefore areas of BLDU will continue across the region, before we see clearing skies as wind speeds begin to diminish by the early evening. The Wind Advisory remains in effect and is set to expire at 7 PM CDT Wednesday as a result. Post frontal northerly winds will aid in keeping the cooler airmass from the north in place, allowing for temperatures to drop nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler from what we saw yesterday with widespread highs in the 60s. Calming winds will begin to veer out of the east then southeast overnight under mostly clear skies, allowing overnight lows to tap into the cooler airmass and allow for max radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Headed into Thursday, northwest flow aloft will prevail overhead as an upper level high builds to our west while troughing continues across the eastern CONUS. Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue, with Thursday looking to be slightly warmer and breezy, although not as warmer as what we saw earlier this week and not as breezy as what we are seeing unfold this afternoon. Lee troughing will develop across southeastern CO early Thursday morning, driving southwest winds to develop across the area as we see slightly pressure gradient increases. Thus, leading to low-end breezy conditions with speeds around 15 to 25 MPH with an occasional gust to 35 MPH not out of the question. Despite these breezy conditions, temperatures only slightly above seasonal normals combined with ERCs around the 50th to 74th percentile should help mitigate the fire weather threat Thursday. However, localized areas of elevated fire weather concerns will be possible, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle where wind speeds will be highest and minimum RH values will range in the low to mid teens.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue across the region to start the extended forecast period as upper level ridging builds across the western CONUS while large scale troughing encompasses the eastern half. Given the synoptic set-up, the forecast period looks to remain relatively quiet with no precipitation in sight for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will begin to warm to start the extended, with highs on Friday near record breaking warmth, before we see even warmer temperatures on Saturday as southwest winds aid in WAA while thickness and heights increase across the region. Forecasted highs on Friday remain widespread in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but we really warm Saturday with highs forecasted in the 80s and 90s. Saturday highs at our climate sites LBB and CDS will threaten to break or tie records dating back to 1972 (86 degrees) at LBB and 1908 (92 degrees) at CDS. A short-lived reprieve from the warmth is expected to start next week, thanks to a shortwave tracking through the Upper Midwest, which in turn will work to swing a FROPA through the area Sunday. Compared to this time yesterday, models have slowed down the FROPA timing, now suggesting an afternoon frontal arrival compared to an early morning arrival. Timing of the front will play a role in how warm we get Sunday, with temperatures now several degrees warmer from yesterday's afternoon forecast package in the 70s and 80s. Will opt to maintain NBM temperatures at this time given the run to run difference, however highs may need to be adjusted in future forecasts. Thereafter, the dry conditions will continue while the warm weather returns by mid-week as the upper level high and associated ridge works to move over the Desert Southwest region aiding in highs back above seasonal normals to end the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR with gusty N winds tapering by sunset, then veering SW by daybreak ahead of 15-25 breezes by Thursday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.