textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- A cold front arriving on Thursday afternoon may bring thunderstorms to the region favoring the Rolling Plains.

- Additional chances of thunderstorms will continue through the weekend into early next week.

- A brief break in the heat is expected early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper level ridge spread across the southern US will continue to bring very warm temperatures for Thursday afternoon. However, better chances of convection will emerge in the afternoon hours with a cold front stalling out across the area. Some large scale ascent will move overhead in the afternoon associated with a 70-80kt jet streak rotating around the upper ridge. A strong short wave trough moving from the Central Plains into the Midwest will send this cold front into the area. The front is currently forecast to enter the southern Texas Panhandle by late morning and stall out somewhere over the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains by late in the afternoon. The front will likely struggle to make it farther south when encountering a deeper mixed boundary layer. Moisture will continue to surge into the region ahead of the front on breezy southerly winds. Blended guidance has mostly underperformed with surface dew points the past several days by mixing out the lower atmosphere too much. Surface dew points off the caprock will likely top out around 70 over the Rolling Plains into the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle by daybreak on Thursday. Some mixing out of these dew points can be expected but perhaps not as much as models are indicating based on previous performance. A healthy low level theta- e axis will develop along the southern end of the frontal boundary. This axis will extend to the southwest into the southwestern South Plains into a triple point/surface low and then southward along a dryline. The higher dew points will yield much higher available instability with mixed layer values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will not be great with weak winds through much of the troposphere until you reach the aforementioned upper level jet streak. Convection will favor the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle where the better moisture will reside. Storms will easily be capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds despite the lack of deep layer shear. How far west convection will develop is unclear with increasing CIN farther to the west on the caprock.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The expected convection on Thursday afternoon and evening will make for an unclear forecast for Friday. Several residual outflow boundaries will likely be hanging around the region in addition to the quasi-stationary front. The front will attempt to retreat back northward as a warm front during the day. The atmosphere will remain very unstable with strong moisture still in place but with a lack of large scale ascent. The upper ridge will expand slightly resulting in weak height rises overhead. Convection on Friday may be highly dependent on where any old boundaries will be located. The upper level ridge will further expand in coverage on Saturday with stronger height rises overhead. Another cold front is expected to plow southward into the area by late Saturday afternoon with additional convection on this surface feature. By this time though, we expect more summer like surface dew points leading to lower available instability. The forecast becomes messy after Saturday as we transition to northwest flow with the upper ridge building over the southwestern US into the eastern Pacific. There is higher certainty in a brief period of cooler temperatures early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. A low cloud deck will fill in to the east of KPVW and KLBB overnight, but is not expected to impact conditions. Breezy southerly winds will continue through early afternoon, before shifting to the north this afternoon following a cold front. There are thunderstorm chances along the cold front that will stall part way through the region, however left out of TAF at the moment as location of the cold front is still uncertain.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.