textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 443 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions Tuesday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM through 7 PM Tuesday. - Warm dry and breezy conditions through the week, with the exception of Thursday thanks to a weak front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

After a cooler start to the work week, an upper level ridge will continue to build into the region as an omega block pattern sets up over the CONUS with a pair of lows translating across the PACNW and NECONUS. As for today, temperatures will warm slightly compared to yesterday as winds continue to turn southerly and thickness and height values rise subtly with the approaching ridge from the west. However the easterly component to the wind speeds this afternoon will likely help limit temperatures from warming too much with highs in the low to mid 60s expected. Winds will begin to veer out of the southwest by the late evening, as a lee trough develops across southeastern CO and begins to dive southward into the Panhandle region by the overnight hours. In response, winds will likely become breezy towards the evening through the overnight hours around 10 to 15 MPH, with an occasional gust to 25 MPH not out of the question. These breezy southwesterly winds overnight will limit max radiational cooling overnight, with overnight lows nearly 10 to 15 degrees warmer from what we saw last night, in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.

By Tuesday, the upper level ridge will have flattened ever so slightly as a perturbation translates eastward through the High Plains. As this happens, a surface low out ahead of the wave across the Central-High Plains will deepen, driving the lee surface trough across the Panhandles region farther south where it develops into a closed low. Most high-resolution guidances places this surface low as far south as the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, with the core of the H8 jet max and H7 jet max's centered over the Caprock regions. There is a bit of uncertainty, as the southern extent of the lee surface low will be dependent on the stronger surface low to our north and where it ends up setting up. Given this, combined with forecast soundings depicting a well mixed PBL through peak heating suggests a breezy day with speeds around 15 to 25 MPH, gusting up to 35 MPH. Similar to overnight temperatures, highs on Tuesday look to warm several degrees back above normal, thanks to the continue uptick in geopotential heights, clear skies, and the warm west- southwesterly winds. In fact, current forecasted temperatures will warm near record breaking territory, with 850 mb temperatures around 20C to 22C suggesting highs in the 80s. Current records date back to 1918 at KLBB with a record high of 89 degrees and 2002 for KCDs with a record high of 86 degrees. Current highs for Tuesday at KLBB and KCDS remain a few degrees from these record, which leads to a low confidence in records being broken. Nonetheless, a warm day is in store for the Caprock regions!

See discussion below on fire weather threat for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Main message of the extended package will be the continuation of warm and dry conditions through much of the week. Similar to what we saw last week, a wave train is expected to continue through the work week as a series of weak perturbations glide eastward through the Plains, working to flatten the upper level ridge centered over the region. In response, we will see the continuation of a lee-side low across southeastern CO, although not as strong and fast moving compared to the lee side low we expect on Tuesday. Therefore, we expect not as strong winds on Wednesday, with speeds around 10 to 20 MPH, with higher speeds fixated along the TX/NM state line with temperatures warming into the 80s once again. Cooler conditions return briefly on Thursday, as another shortwave dives through the Southern Plains into the southeastern CONUS, swinging a weak cold front through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Post-frontal winds out of the north through much of the day, remaining breezy, will help keep the cooler airmass in place with highs cooling into the 60s to lower 70s. Unfortunately if you like the cooler weather, this will be short lived with ensembles hinting at the weekend theme being warm and dry as an upper level ridge builds over the southern CONUS as a surface high centers itself over Baja Mexico.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to areas across the Caprock Tuesday as near record breaking warmth returns along with dry and breezy conditions. West-southwest winds will increase Tuesday morning, around 15 to 30 MPH, gusting up to 35 MPH. While 20 foot wind speeds prevail out of the southwest around 15 to 25 MPH. The southwesterly breezes combined with clear skies and uptick in geopotential heights will help influence temperatures back in the 80s area-wide and relative humidity values in the lower teens to single digits. Given this and the fact that fuels remain dry, with ERCs around the 70th to 89th percentile, RFTIs will range from 4 to 7. Higher RFTI values will remain confined to the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, where stronger winds and drier conditions are expected to reside. A Red Flag Warning is in effect due to the following conditions from 11 AM Tuesday through 7 PM Tuesday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>024- 027>031-033>037-039>041.