textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 357 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday.

- Potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, mainly off the Caprock.

- A cold front is progged to push through the region Friday slightly cooling temperatures for the weekend and rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A much cooler day compared to last weekend remains on track for today. Current water vapor imagery indicated a broad upper trough over the Rockies bringing southwesterly flow aloft. This pattern aloft has ushered in subtropical moisture to the region. At the same time, southeasterly surface flow will usher in moisture from the gulf to lower levels. A low stratus layer filled in across the region this morning and is expected to prevail through the rest of today. This will keep temperatures this afternoon in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper jet associated with the aforementioned trough will move in over the region through the afternoon and early evening. With plenty of moisture and upper forcing associated with the jet, shower and thunderstorm chances persist through the rest of today. Instability is expected to be low through the afternoon, therefore we are expecting scattered rain showers. There is potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two this evening with the potential for small to quarter size hail and a severe gust or two, however chances are low at this time.

Tonight is expected to be pleasant with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. An embedded upper shortwave passing overhead tonight and lingering moisture on all levels rain showers will continue overnight into much of the day Thursday. The upper shortwave is expected to depart the region Thursday evening effectively ending precipitation chances from west to east. CAMs are indicating scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern South Plains late Thursday afternoon will combine into a line of storms along the I-27 corridor and continuing east through the rest of the region. However, this set up is uncertain at the moment as the environment looks to remained capped through the day Thursday. Despite the continued cloudy skies, Thursday will be slightly warmer compared to today with highs in the 70s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The long term forecast will start off will start off with a much warmer Friday. Mostly zonal flow will fill in a loft as the upper trough mentioned in the short term discussion exits away from the region and a secondary trough digs south along the Rockies through central CONUS. Slight height increases during the day Friday will allow temperatures to warm to the 80s to lower 90s Friday. Models indicate a dryline will push eastward across the Caprock to just east of the I-27 corridor later Friday afternoon. At the same time, a cold front will push south across the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the dryline where it it intersect with the cold front. The greatest chances are expected over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains.

The passage of the cold front will bring widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday through early Sunday morning as well. Rain chances and mostly cloudy skies through the weekend will slightly "cool" temperatures with highs in the upper 70s through lower 80s. We will see a lull in precipitation chances the rest of Sunday and Monday, however chances return through the rest of the week as another upper trough amplifies over western CONUS. Models indicate the passage of embedded shortwaves everyday from Tuesday on giving way for storm development. However, that is about a week away and can expect changes in future forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

MVFR ceilings will prevail through the rest of today. IFR ceilings are expected at all three TAF sites around midnight through Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected through late Thursday morning and the afternoon. light to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail through the next 24 hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of today and overnight into Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential, however cannot rule out the development of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two near any terminal. Storm chances are expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.