textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Fair weather is expected the rest of today into Sunday, with warm temperatures.

- Roller coaster of temperatures expected next week due to the passage of multiple cold fronts.

- Precipitation chances return next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Fair weather is expected for the rest of today and into Sunday, as northwesterly flow aloft is maintained by a broad, slow-moving trough over the Laurentian Continental Divide and a subtropical ridge wobbling eastward over the Sierra Madre Occidental. Slightly positive geopotential height tendencies and full insolation will govern substantial warming of the airmass this afternoon, as mixing heights ascend into the mid-levels. Despite the warm temperatures, highs this afternoon and Sunday will remain well-below any prior records at CDS and LBB. A gentle breeze will be maintained through the course of the short-term period, as a weak surface low currently near CDS rotates southeastward into the TX Big Country. Until the surface low exits the CWA tonight, winds will prevail from the southwest across the Rolling Plains while veering northwestward behind the diffuse surface trough.

Light winds will then transition to the northeast throughout the overnight hours due to a synoptic cold front moving in from the north. This front should become quasi-stationary across the far southeastern TX PH in a southeast-to-northwest-oriented manner by dawn Sunday, with northeast winds veering towards the south across the Caprock. Cloud cover was increased for the northeastern zones Sunday, as cooler theta-e advection post-FROPA should cause the top of the shallower PBL to saturate. Highs for Sunday may need to be adjusted a bit lower in the northeastern zones as well, but given the increasing SZA, in addition to the uncertainty on how far southwest the post-frontal overcast advects, NBM highs have been maintained. Highs will peak in the lower-middle 80s otherwise across the pre-frontal airmass Sunday beneath some cirrus banding.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The main take aways for the long term forecast are a roller coaster of temperatures are expected next week due to the passage of multiple cold fronts and the return of precipitation chances. After a warm weekend, we will start the long term package off with a slight cool down for Monday. A cold front is progged to push through the region overnight Sunday into Monday. Northeasterly surface flow following the front will cool temperatures. However, broad upper ridging over the region and a quick shift to southerly surface flow during the afternoon will keep highs ~10 degrees above seasonal average. Although decreasing compared to previous forecasts, rain shower chances return overnight Sunday into early Monday over eastern portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Patchy fog will also be possible early Monday, however confidence on that occurring is low at the moment, therefore kept out of the grids for this forecast package. Monday's "cooler" temperatures do not last long as the upper ridging and breezy southwest to westerly winds will warm temperatures back into the 80s for Tuesday. On the surface, a lee low tracking over the Central Plains will pull a Pacific cold front eastward through the region during the afternoon bringing breezy westerly winds behind it.

We will finally see an upper pattern change by mid-week. An upper low off the shore of the Pacific Northwest will translate onshore and across the Intermountain West opening into a trough Sunday and Monday before reaching central CONUS by mid-week. This upper system will swing a cold front through the region Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly off the Caprock beginning Tuesday evening. However, there are some uncertainties in the chance for precipitation. Models differ with the timing and location of the upper trough with the ECMWF taking a slower and more southern track compared to the faster and more northern GFS track. If the GFS track comes to fruition, the region will most likely get dry slotted. Compared to previous forecasts, precipitation chances continue to slightly decrease with each package. Current NBM has slight to moderate chance PoPs for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation chances linger through the rest of the week as models indicate another upper trough following the aforementioned trough. Temperature wise, we will see a slight cool down on Wednesday following the front late Tuesday. Thursday looks to warm back into the 80s due to WAA from breezy southwesterly winds from the development of a lee surface low. Models indicate another front will push through the region overnight Thursday into Friday cooling temperatures once again through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR prevails for the TAF period, with light winds.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.