textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Cooler today with a few afternoon showers and storms mainly off the Caprock.

- Very warm, dry and windy conditions by Tuesday with wildfire concerns for areas that saw minimal rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Cooler conditions were sweeping over the region late this morning on the heels of a Pacific cold front nearing Highway 83 as of 11 AM. Aloft, a broad meridional trough axis was entering W TX accompanied by a mid-level dry slot and ample sunshine. The exception to this clearing was across the western TX Panhandle where a mid-level cold pocket was sustaining a swath of lower clouds that should evolve into some agitated cumulus this afternoon as they sweep southeast over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. The potential for these to grow into showers or even a few thunderstorms is greatest off the Caprock where low-level moisture and SBCAPEs are comparably higher, so PoPs have been shoved farther east before drying out this evening as meager CAPEs of a few hundred J/kg finally wane. Breezy NW winds will also decline this evening as cool surface ridging arrives ahead of lows in the 30s and 40s. Sunday is shaping up splendid under upper ridging with light winds as the surface ridge pulls away.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday remains the biggest challenge in the extended realm as the potential is growing for strong winds, blowing dust, near-record high temps, and critical fire weather for some areas. Until then, quiet weather starts the work week under upper ridging with lee troughing fueling milder SW breezes. The upper ridge departs by Tuesday ahead of a robust shortwave trough ejecting across the Colorado Front Range by midday accompanied by a 170 knot H3 jet to our northwest. Unfortunately, the GEFS and NAM drag a H7 wind max of 55-70 knots from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western South Plains which raises concerns for strong (30-39 mph sustained) and even potentially high winds (40+ mph sustained) for these areas. Tuesday's record high of 85 at LBB appears safe for now, but not so much at CDS where 88 could be threatened due to enhanced compressional warming. This heat along with low RHs and strong downslope winds supports a fire weather concern primarily for our W- NW zones where recent rainfall was too light to allow dormant fuels to wick moisture from the soil.

The gradient flow relaxes for Wednesday under continued deep WSW flow, yet remains breezy and dry enough for additional fire concerns. These winds should perk up by Thursday as the next shortwave trough rotates across the central High Plains, although the NBM is sadly too low with these winds at present. High temps remain very mild until late week as broad troughing over the Great Basin draws closer and lowers thicknesses. Otherwise, rain chances remain null in such deep and dry westerly flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through this TAF cycle with the possible exception of a period of MVFR late this afternoon into the early evening hours. West winds will continue to turn to the north and gradually weaken as a front is expected to move through the area this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.