textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon across portions of the Rolling Plains, with a lower risk for storms on the Caprock.

- Strong cold front with breezy northeast winds on Wednesday.

- Warming into the weekend with possible record highs Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday morning) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a split-flow pattern persists across North America, with a broadly cyclonic trough, accompanied by a 125 kt jet streak at 250 mb rounding its base, meandering over the northern Rocky Mountains. The southern-stream troughing featured a closed low that managed to become cut-off, evident on both water-vapor imagery and by the 09/12Z and 10/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts, as convection was ongoing within the northeastern quadrant of the barotropic low over the northern Sonoran Desert. GLM data has also detected periodic bursts of higher flash densities, but lightning density was low otherwise. Closed lows that produce thunderstorms over the Desert Southwest typically bode well for storm chances across W TX. Farther south, a sharply cyclonic, southern-stream trough was juxtaposed to the barotropic low, which will serve as the impetus for the low to lose its barotropy while remaining closed as it rotates eastward into northern Mexico by Tuesday morning. The leading edge of the 250 mb and 500 mb jet streaks have nosed into W TX, evident by the thick cirrus banding bisecting the southeastern tranche of the CWA. Gravity waves were embedded within the cirrus bands, serving as an indicator of the intensity of the moist, isentropic ascent advecting into the southern Great Plains ahead of the approaching system. The 700 mb trough remained west of the CWA per the 10/00Z UA charts, and there were some billows observed via webcams across LBB earlier this evening. The 00Z RAOB from WFO MAF sampled a deeply-mixed boundary-layer that ascends to a shallow warm nose between 525-500 mb, with a sliver of CAPE contained within the mid-levels. The potential for elevated, non-severe storms will be confined to areas along and west of HWY-385 through the predawn hours Tuesday, and PoPs have been outlined for those locales between 06-12Z. Storm chances are NIL for the rest of tonight otherwise.

At the surface, a trough was draped across the CWA along a line from CDS-PVW, and intersects a weak cyclone rotating near ROW. Winds have since backed poleward within the southern quadrant of the surface trough, with winds veering southwestward across the far southern TX PH per recent WTM data. Farther northeast, another lee cyclone was located in northwestern OK near END and AVK, resulting in the southwest-to-northeast-oriented manner of the surface trough. This surface trough will continue to slosh poleward throughout the rest of the night and eventually undergo warm-frontogenesis as it moves into the OK PH, with rapid moisture return underway to the south of the CWA. The northwestern edge of the 60-degree isodrosotherm was analyzed near SWW, and the expectation is for dewpoints in the lower 60s to advect into the Rolling Plains prior to sunrise Tuesday. As this occurs, the weak cyclone near ROW will also rotate northward in congruence with the surface trough, allowing the already-diffuse dryline present in the TX Big Bend to extend northward into the CWA by the early afternoon hours Tuesday. Farther west, a Pacific cold front was located near the AZ/NM state line and extended southward into northern Chihuahua. This front will continue to move eastward towards the CWA throughout the short-term period, with the dryline expected to propagate into the Rolling Plains by the mid-afternoon hours Tuesday, resulting in a narrow, pre-frontal corridor evolving across the CWA Tuesday afternoon.

A bimodal episode of convection is forecast today, including: a risk for surface-based, severe-caliber storms in the Rolling Plains; and fast-moving, high-based storms west of the dryline, the latter of which will pose a minimal severe risk. As previously mentioned, the cut-off low will lose its barotropy, but remain closed, as the low begins to phase with the southern-stream troughing. The primary vorticity lobe will eject into the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with indications that the low will remain closed, albeit compact, as it rotates over W TX Tuesday evening. A mixed-mode of storms is expected in the Rolling Plains, with better prospects for organized convection occurring east of the 100th meridian. The 10/00Z RAOB from WFO ABQ also observed strong, mixed-layer theta-e advection, with near-superadiabatic lapse rates within the surface-to-3-km layer, and an LCL near 550 mb. Advection of high theta-e air will maintain strong thermal instability across the moist sector amidst intense, large-scale forcing for ascent.

Moderate instability, characterized by mixed-layer CAPE values near 2,500 J/kg in the eastern Rolling Plains, in addition to cloud-layer and effective shear magnitudes near 70 kt and 50 kt, respectively, will facilitate a potential for significant-severe hail in excess of two inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph across the eastern Rolling Plains. The orientation of the vertical shear will favor supercells embedded within potentially scattered-to-numerous multi-cells, with the proviso that the deep- and cloud-layer shear will favor the maintenance of mid-level mesocyclones, as low-level mesocyclones should fail to become established in the Rolling Plains. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany storms in the moist sector, but the quick movement of storms will curtail the flash flooding risk. Farther west onto the Caprock, high-based storms will be possible, with LCLs rooted at the top of the dryline airmass, or above 700 mb. The current satellite presentation, in addition to the consistent indication by forecast soundings on the maintenance of a slim EML, leads to the thinking that a localized dry-microburst event may occur across the Caprock.

Otherwise, winds were raised area-wide Tuesday afternoon, as lee cyclogenesis of a 994 mb surface low will be ongoing near the Raton Mesa. Southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, are expected area-wide, with blowing dust possible across the Caprock outside of any convective gusts generated by the high-based storms. Locally elevated fire weather concerns may develop on the Caprock, but this window is narrow. The Pacific cold front will move across the CWA after dark and overtake the dryline, with winds temporarily diminishing as a pre-frontal surface trough sloshes into the CWA and a weak cyclone forms on the Caprock. A polar cold front will arrive near sunrise Wednesday, with strong winds to follow.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A strong cold front will move through in the wake of the aforementioned system Wednesday morning and winds will quickly increase out of the northeast. High pressure to the north and relatively low pressure immediately south will constitute a tight surface pressure gradient over the area which will drive higher winds rather than a low-level jet. NBM continues to come in a bit low, and speeds/gusts have been manually raised. A Wind Advisory will likely be in order once Tuesday's storm potential has subsided. At this time, sustained winds to 35 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph are possible for much of the area. That said, unfavorable fuels and cooler temperatures into the 60s will curtail any fire weather concerns, although pockets of elevated conditions are possible. Winds will quickly diminish into the evening and become light and variable overnight into Thursday.

The remainder of the week will see a NW to zonal flow pattern aloft with generally high pressure setting up to the east. Southwest surface flow and eventually due westerly flow will allow for a continual warm up into the weekend with widespread 90s becoming more likely for the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area on Saturday. Lubbock's record high of 85 will be in serious jeopardy. No precipitation is expected through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Low level moisture was streaming into the region this morning ahead of a strong upper level storm system. This may bring MVFR or IFR CIGS to the KLBB terminal again later this morning. There is a very slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm to affect the TAF sites early this morning but coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the TAF. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest by late morning in response to the approaching upper level system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon but confidence in affecting any one TAF site are low at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.