textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- An elevated-to-critical fire danger will continue through this evening.

- Benign and warmer weather Friday into Saturday.

- Strong winds are expected Sunday following a cold front, with the forecast remaining dry into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

17Z upper air analysis depicts a belt of broad, northwesterly flow encompassing the central and western half of the U.S., with a progressive, shortwave troughing pattern situated over the 49th parallel and into the Great Lakes region. The upstream shortwave impulse translating southeastward over the northern Great Plains has generated a large-scale isallobaric response at the surface, and is responsible for the brisk, southwesterly winds today. Winds will remain brisk through this evening, with winds tapering off this evening as a lee cyclone currently in southeastern CO rotates into the CWA. The arrival of the pre-frontal surface trough will cause winds to veer westward, with a weak cold front moving into the CWA by mid-morning Friday. Overnight lows were warmed slightly to account for the effects of adiabatic compression from the westerly breeze. CAA will be essentially NIL with this dry front, with much warmer temperatures forecast Friday afternoon compared to today due to slightly positive geopotential height tendencies. Highs will peak in the upper 70s across the northern half of the CWA, while reaching the lower-middle 80s south of the HWY-86 corridor. Winds will veer throughout the day Friday as the lee cyclone rotates southeastward across the Rolling Plains, with winds become light and variable heading into Saturday morning amidst cool temperatures.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will be maintained Saturday, with an amplifying, shortwave trough digging into the central Rocky Mountains. The respective geopotential height falls will result in cyclogenesis of a surface low near 990 mb in eastern CO, causing winds to transition to the west Saturday. Strong theta-e advection off the higher terrain of the southern Rocky Mountains will result in substantial mixing of the boundary-layer, with PBL heights soaring up to and above 500 mb. With 850 mb temperatures forecast to rise near 25 deg C, near-record highs are also on the table at CDS and LBB Saturday afternoon. Such boundary-layer profiles will also garner an elevated fire weather risk despite the westerly winds being on the lighter side, as RH values will fall into the middle single-digits amidst substantial fuel loading.

West Texas winds will return Sunday, as a strong, polar cold front is forecast to surge southward through the CWA. The aforementioned shortwave trough emerging over the central Rocky Mountains will continue to amplify and dig into the southern Great Plains while becoming neutrally-tilted. As the base of the trough digs into the TX PH, a mid-level jet streak rounding its base will be approaching 100 kt, with geopotential height falls on the order of 100 m/12 hr near and north of the CWA. This will generate an intense isallobaric response in the wake of a steeply sloped cold front, with post-FROPA pressure tendencies spiking between 12-16 mb/6 hr. Winds were raised to encompass most of the CWA within the advisory-level, but a High Wind event may materialize for the majority of the CWA Sunday.

CAA will be strong, with sub-freezing lows forecast heading into Monday morning as winds are slow to diminish ahead of a 1030-1034 mb surface high rotating into W TX. Blowing dust may cause localized reductions in visibility, but dust will be more-widespread in the event high winds occur. Therefore, dust has been reflected in the official forecast with this package. The upper air pattern is then forecast to to remain amplified heading into the middle of next week, but with the progressive flow shifting eastward as anomalous ridging develops over the Desert Southwest. PoPs remain NIL for the extended period, with very warm temperatures forecast through the end of next week.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR with gusty SW winds tapering by sunset, then veering W-N Friday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>032.