textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Warm and mostly sunny conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Slight precipitation chances this week, mainly off the Caprock.

- Temperatures fluctuating with a series of fronts, but remaining above-average.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A quiet overnight is expected with diminishing NE winds. Higher cloud cover will persist and help to at least somewhat moderate lows in the 40s with the exception of upper 30s in the far SW Panhandle. A upper shortwave will move over the Rockies Sunday and strong high pressure well to the north will descend southward. While the combination of the warm/cooler airmasses along with the shortwave may develop showers and thunderstorms off to our east over Oklahoma, the front only looks to extend into the far SE Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains during the daytime hours. Light easterly winds will occur here, with generally south winds elsewhere. Nonetheless, given upper heights in the 580s Dm, highs will remain very warm for this time of year, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will shift ENE overnight over the entire area. Monday morning lows will be a few degrees cooler than tonight. Cloud cover will persist through the day Monday over the far SE Panhandle and along with a more SE component to the surface winds, will keep temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds will be more southerly elsewhere by afternoon and potentially reach near 80 for the southern South Plains. No precipitation is expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A cutoff upper low will move southeastward across the Rockies on Tuesday. Models are currently in good agreement with regards to the low's position centered near the CO/NE/KS border by the afternoon/evening hours. SW flow at all levels will bring in a fair amount of Pacific moisture, however much of the forcing ahead of the trough and near a low-level jet will be confined to the far SE Panhandle. As such, the chance of showers and thunderstorms has been retained for this area, although models continue to trend eastward. Another trough will move over the Intermountain West on Wednesday, however its position would yield any precipitation east of the CWA. Latest NBM still indicates PoPs over the far southern Rolling Plains, however it will likely to continue to back off of subsequent runs if current trends hold. As the trough tracks east on Thursday its surface low will begin to occlude over the Dakotas. A front will extend well southward and may clip areas off the Caprock late Thursday. Meanwhile another upper trough will quickly descend over the California coast Friday and stall near Baja California Saturday. This will increase southwesterly moisture advection into the area and bring the most broad rainfall chances into the weekend. Temperatures will be yo-yoing all week with a series of fronts, but remain above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR and generally light winds will prevail through this evening at all sites. Tonight, a cold front will bring a period of stronger ENE winds to the region along with an expanding deck of MVFR CIGs. These should reach KCDS after 00z, but KLBB and KPVW are currently expected to remain VFR through 12z on Monday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.