textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
- Warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
- Cooler and wetter this weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
A strong upper low is currently approaching the California coast amplifying a ridge out ahead of it. This will bring warmer and dry conditions today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along with mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain light out of the south. Quiet weather will persist overnight. The aforementioned low will move onshore on Thursday, shifting the ridge axis to the east. However, the associated Pacific moisture fetch will still remain well west of our area and conditions will be very similar to today outside of slightly more breezy southerly winds during the afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
The upper low will become elongated and split beginning Friday. This will somewhat inhibit moisture advection into our area and it now looks as though conditions will remain completely dry everywhere through Friday evening. A full closed low will become completely cutoff over SoCal/southern AZ by Saturday. Models indicate it dipping a bit farther south from yesterday, thus the majority of shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday evening would be confined to the TX/NM border. As the low lifts north and eastward Saturday night into Sunday, the southerly moisture fetch out ahead of it will shift concurrently eastward as well. The heavy rain threat will still primarily remain on the Caprock through much of Sunday. The low will stay cutoff as it turns more due eastward over CO/KS. Once this occurs, rain is expected to overspread our entire region on Monday, after which time the associated cold front will move through. Precipitation looks to gradually end from northwest to southeast on Tuesday with northerly winds behind the front leading to cooler high temperatures in the 60s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
VFR conditions will prevail.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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