textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected each afternoon this week.

- Localized areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across the Caprock.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The return of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is on tap for the short term period as the FA finds itself beneath a stubborn upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure. Relatively zonal flow aloft combined with subsidence beneath the upper ridge will allow for a dry forecast to start the week. At the surface, a lee trough will develop across southeastern CO, diving into portions of eastern NM, allowing southwesterly surface winds to prevail while increasing in speeds around 10 to 20 MPH. These breezy southwesterly winds will aid in WAA transport into the region, which combined with increased heights and thickness will allow for high temperatures Monday well above normal in the 70s and 80s. These absurdly warm temperatures will actually be near record breaking at KLBB, with the current record of 79 degrees set in 1969, while the forecasted high is 82 degrees. Although it will be warm at KCDS, records are a bit warmer, so the likelihood of record breaking heat at KCDS will be low. Quiet and mild conditions continue Monday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 50s under mostly clear skies and light winds.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Main theme of the extended: record breaking heat and dry conditions through the holiday week. The FA will remain under the influence of a stubborn H5 ridge through much of the work week, which combined with daily southwest breezes transporting WAA into the region, will allow for unseasonably warm afternoon highs. In fact, records at KLBB looked to be reached almost every afternoon through Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s expected. The ridge will finally begin to depart east Thursday, as a result of an amplified upper level trough moving into the western CONUS. Despite ensembles hinting at this system bringing the potential for cooler and maybe wetter conditions this weekend, deterministic models are not in agreement with the overall evolution and timing of this system. Models like the GFS portray a slower system that develops into a closed low over the Four Corners by New Years, while the ECMWF portrays a faster moving open wave trough that becomes into the main flow of a closed low over the Great Lakes region by the weekend. Needless to say, both solutions do not favor any beneficial or meaningful rainfall for the West Texas region unfortunately. Similar to the previous forecast, NBM PoPs seems a little high given this scenario, but due to the fact this system is several days out we will maintain slight chances across the Caprock Saturday through Monday morning. Although these will likely need to be lowered if this drier trend continues to play out. As for cooler temperatures, NBM hints at a modest cool down for Saturday, but again this will be dependent on the evolution of the upper level system this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.