textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Warm Sunday with periods of isolated to scattered thunderstorms chances throughout the day, the severe threat remains low.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday with daily chances for thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Sunday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A few showers linger across the the southern South Plains, where most activity this evening developed along an lingering outflow tracking southwest through the region. Not much has happened with these storms, with rainfall totals ranging from 0.01" up to 0.30" so far. This activity looks to clear the FA by midnight. Thereafter, a quiet night is in store with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.

A tricky short term forecast is on tap for the Caprock region in regards to Sunday, therefore this remains a low confidence forecast. Lets get into the details. Sunday morning, CAMs are signaling at our first chance for precipitation beginning shortly after daybreak as an outflow from a remnant storm system in central OK dives southward into the region. Given plentiful moisture in place thanks to easterly flow at the surface and mid-levels, convergence along this boundary should be enough for convective initiation. Heading into the afternoon, outflows from additional storm systems look to converge across the LUB FA from all directions, with CAMs picking up on this in latest runs. As a result of this, we expect the potential for widespread, isolated to scattered thunderstorms to be possible along any and all boundaries as they track through the region. However, this remains low confidence given we are not 100% sure when these boundaries will actually make it into our area, if they even do, and where they track through. What we do know, dewpoints are progged to be well above seasonal normals for this time of year in the upper 50s to upper 60s with PWATs ranging from 1.5" to 1.8" across the FA, which is above the regional 90th percentile climatological normal for this time of year. Knowing this abundant moisture will be in place, along with little to no convective inhibition, any source of lift tracking through the area should suffice for thunderstorm development. Similar to previous days, weak shear and poor mid- level lapse rates will likely limit storm organization. Therefore the severe threat remains on the lower end. However, MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg combined with the dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings suggest there is a threat for marginally severe to severe wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Will maintain NBM widespread slight chance to chance PoPs across the area for much of the day Sunday. However, these PoPs may have to be altered throughout the day Sunday to account for any outflows moving through.

As far as temperatures go, we will see highs a few degrees cooler from what we have seen the last few days. This will be in part to the decrease in thickness values along with the potential for lingering precipitation and cloud cover. Therefore, expect highs in the 90s area-wide, although some areas may see highs a few degrees cooler than forecasted.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The upper level ridge and area of associated high pressure will continue to wobble into the Central/High Plains by early next week in response to an upper level trough moving into the PacNW. This will lead to flow aloft across the region to become more easterly through much of the extended period. As the ridge moves northeastward the upper high over the Upper Midwest will continue to expand southward in response while surface troughing continues to be maintained across northeastern New Mexico. This will allow easterly flow at the surface to prevail through much of the extended period. The decrease in heights with the upper high placed to our north, along with the decrease in thickness values and moist upslope flow through much of the column will help influence daily highs that below seasonal normals, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. With temperatures a few degrees cooler each afternoon Monday through Thursday, with Thursday looking to be the coolest with widespread highs potentially in the 70s and 80s thanks to possible precipitation and lingering cloud cover across the region. However, it is still a bit to far out for any guarantee. In regards to precipitation potential, similar to previous forecasts, a lot of this will be dependent on the placement of the upper level high early next week as an easterly wave from the SECONUS tracks in. Deterministic guidance continues to disagree on the matter, with the GFS being the wetter of the two models with the placement of the high further to our north. Meanwhile the ECMWF remains the outlier depicting a drier bias with the base of the upper high still clipping portions of the Caprock regions, suppressing precipitation from the area. Now that short to medium range guidance is coming in, the NAM seems to be more aligned with the GFS which is a good sign for those who are wanting to see precipitation next week. Regardless, precipitation chances will be highest across our most southern row of counties where we expect the best H3 to H7 moisture, higher dewpoints, and overall lift to be associated. As a result, we will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being. However, these may need to be altered either way to account for any changes with the placement of the upper high.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR and light winds away from TS. CDS could still see a shot at TS in the next few hours as an outflow boundary pushes west, but a greater opportunity exists this afternoon and early evening at all terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.