textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Dangerous travel conditions expected this weekend as a major winter storm brings snow and ice accumulations across the region.

- Arctic front this morning will bring extremely cold temperatures through the weekend with wind chills as low as 15 below zero each morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A messy forecast is in store. The cold front is beginning to ooze into the FA as of 10 PM. Despite the cold front slowly moving into the region, the colder air is still held up over the Central and Northern Plains. This air will be slow to move into the FA until at least mid day. For temperatures, we should generally see highs in the 30s across the Caprock and in the 40s across much of the Rolling Plains with highs occurring before noon. Currently overnight lows are expected to drop into the single digits to as high as 12 degrees. We should begin to see precip develop across the region by mid day as a result of frontal forcing. Precip will be light at the start before upper level forcing moves over the region this evening and precip coverage and intensity increase. This will persist through the overnight hours before a brief lull in precip before 12Z Saturday. Precip mode will be the most difficult aspect of the forecast. Liquid rain will be the primary mode to start with before surface temperatures begin to drop well below freezing. By that point a mix of likely freezing rain and sleet will will be expected. A very pronounced warm nose resulting from prominent southwesterly upper flow will be present, with a warm nose of over 3C possible. The extent of freezing rain vs sleet will depend on the full depth of low level cold air in addition to the extent of how cold surface temperatures drop. Colder temperatures will allow for sleet to form more quickly. Given the uncertainty, the forecast will reflect a roughly equal mix for freezing rain and sleet for the southern half of the FA. A mixture including snow will be possible across the northern half of the FA. Ice accumulation is just as difficult to forecast with this system as precip mode. The current forecast will reflect an accumulation of a few hundredths up to one tenth of an inch. While that is the forecast, it is not out of the realm of possibility for higher accumulation amounts. In addition to freezing precip, wind chills ranging from 0 to nearly -15 degrees will be possible Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The long term package will start with the continuation of wintry precipitation and much colder temperatures into Saturday. To start off the day Saturday, southwesterly flow will prevail aloft as an upper low spinning over eastern Pacific pushes on shore over Baja Mexico. This upper flow will prolong precipitation that began Friday into Saturday as it persists to usher in subtropical moisture to the region. As the upper system continues to translate east towards our region through the day Saturday, it will transition into an open wave before getting absorbed into northern flow. Extremely cold temperatures following the FROPA expected to push through the region early Friday will continue into Saturday with highs expected in the teens for much of the region. NBM continues to overestimate highs on Saturday, therefore were lowered using NBM25th. Saturday morning will be particularly cold as moderate northeasterly winds bring the possibility for wind chills as low as 15 below zero. Make sure you protect your pipes, bring in pets, and dress properly if you have to go outside.

Saturday will start off with wintry mix precipitation before transitioning to mostly snow by the afternoon over much of the region. However, soundings continue to indicate a decent warm nose for southeastern portions of the region resulting in a better chance for freezing rain. Uncertainties remain in the timing and total amount of precipitation as it is dependent on the progression of the upper system to the west of the region. Models continue to differ on timing with the ECMWF keeping a quicker progression while GFS continues with a slower progression. Current snow totals show northern portions could see somewhere between 5 to 6 inches while southern portions could see up to 4 inches. Areas that have chances for freezing rain could see ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch or more. Any ice accumulation on roadways will result in travel hazards. If you must travel anytime during the winter storm, take extra precautions when driving such as driving slower, leaving plenty of room between you and the car ahead of you, and leave for your destination early.

Precipitation is expected to taper off early Sunday morning as the post-frontal high fills in over the region and upper flow shifts to mostly zonal after the aforementioned upper system is absorbed into northerly flow. We will see a gradual warming trend in temperatures however, the well below seasonal normal temperatures continue into Sunday and Monday with highs in the 20s and 30s, respectively. During early morning hours of Sunday and Monday, similar to Saturday morning, extremely cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero are possible. Temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal normal through the rest of the week. Mostly zonal flow aloft prevails through the first half of the week before upper ridging begins to build over the Desert Southwest shifting flow aloft to the northwest by mid-week. Concurrently, models indicate the possibility for a cold front pushing through the region. Otherwise, conditions look to be dry next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A major winter storm will result in very poor flight conditions across the region beginning today and lasting through early Sunday. In the immediate term, IFR/LIFR CIGs will persist through this morning with some FG/BR possible at KLBB and KPVW as well. By late morning, northeast winds will increase as a surge of Arctic air enters the region, with a mix of FZRA and PL expected at all TAF sites this afternoon through tonight. Ice accumulations are expected both at the surface and in-cloud. Some brief improvements to MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon, but for now will maintain a pessimistic TAF with IFR forecast to persist at all TAF sites throughout the next 24 hours and beyond.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.