textproduct: Lubbock
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
- Hot temperatures roll straight into September.
- Rain chances are dire, yet a window could crack open by late week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
High temperatures inch lower for Monday and again on Tuesday as the upper high departs toward the Ohio River Valley leaving us under a weaker branch of subsidence. Even with less subsidence, moisture remains too paltry for anything more than some afternoon cumulus. Sadly, August in Lubbock is closing the gap with 2011 as the warmest ever. September starts the same as August left off with no real change in temps as both lows and highs hover around 10 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
The remainder of this week remains fraught with drought and hot temperatures as we see the core of the heat dome slowly retreat from the Smoky Mountains to the southern Great Plains by the weekend. Two minor features worth noting during this time involve the remnants of a compact tropical system making landfall along the Upper Texas Coast on Tuesday, and a modest intrusion of monsoonal moisture across the Caprock for Thursday and Friday as our flow aloft turns more southwesterly. Although very unlikely, a few models drift the tropical remnants with precip into our Rolling Plains counties by Friday, with some diurnally-driven storms on the Caprock by Thursday accompanying the monsoonal moisture. Neither of these solutions have much support from the multi-day ensembles, so our forecast officially remains dry. The core of the 596-599 dam high looks to flex its muscles just to our north by next weekend which would keep us locked in upper 90s and lower 100s for highs. NBM and MOS are not capturing this hotter signal very well at the moment and instead show maxT's either leveling off or falling, but this will be revisited in later forecasts.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
VFR and generally light southerly winds will continue.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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