textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Showers and storms are possible Saturday through Tuesday, with the best chance being on the Caprock on Sunday (50-80% chance). The threat of flooding has diminished.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A slow eastward progression of the synoptic pattern continues, with the upper ridge axis now focused from south Texas northward to Lake Superior. Meanwhile, the western US trough has begun to split into a closed low over the SW CONUS and another over Canada. Friday's forecast largely panned out as expected, including the morning stratus across the South Plains, and another round of stratus appears likely along and west of I-27 Saturday morning. While the SW US upper low slowly meanders east on Sat, a primarily meridional (southerly) mid-level flow component suggests limited eastward progression of any storms that develop across NM tomorrow. CAMs indicate precip is possible near, along, and perhaps just east of the NM/TX border tomorrow, but much of the forecast area stays dry through at least late Sat evening.

Shower and storm chances do increase late Sat night into Sun, especially on the Caprock (50-80% chance), but the flooding potential has lowered considerably from previous forecasts. As the upper low lifts northeast towards CO, the better upper forcing will be focused north of our area, and the sfc front never quite reaches our area either, so forcing is weaker and less persistent than earlier model runs suggested. In addition to weaker forcing on Sun, the lack of preceding rainfall on Fri-Sat will also minimize the flood threat, as current soil moisture values from NASA-SPoRT indicate dry soils that will be receptive to rain. The previous WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook had a "Slight Risk" (level 2 of 4) across much of the Caprock on Sunday, but the updated outlook now has no categorical risk across most of the area (less than 5% chance of flooding). The potential of exceeding 1" of rain on Sunday is low, around 20% west of I-27, peaking at 40% in the far SW TX Panhandle.

The temps trend cooler into Sun as the cloud cover thickens and precip chances increase, with highs in the mid 60s on the Caprock Sun and mid 70s off the Caprock. Winds on Sat-Sun will be similar to what we experience on Fri, out of the southeast with gusts as high as 30 mph.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

During the early part of next week, the upper low over CO continues to lift northeast, but precip chances linger across the forecast area, aided in part by another shortwave lifting across the Permian Basin. The highest precipitable water values (nearing 1.25") will shift to areas off the Caprock by Mon, but similar to areas on the Caprock on Sun these areas will have received little preceding rainfall and the dry soils should limit the flooding risk.

The polar jet remains active across the northern US next week, with multiple disturbances evolving over and emerging from the Pacific NW. Models have come into better agreement in showing a fast-moving wave ejecting onto the northern Plains late Tues, and the associated sfc pressure falls will keep southerly winds in place locally. Differences remain during the latter half of the week but a SW flow regime is favored over the SW CONUS and W TX. This would support occasional shortwaves and associated precip chances late next week into the Halloween weekend. The CPC 6 to 10 Day Outlook (valid Oct 29-Nov 2) has a 60-80% chance of above normal precip across west Texas. Beyond Tues, temps will generally be in the 60s/70s with lows in the upper 40s/50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Low clouds are expected to fill in from the south impacting KLBB. However, these low clouds are not expected to impact flight category. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible at KLBB and KPVW towards the end of this TAF period, however as timing is still uncertain, have been left out of this TAF. Severe threat will be low with these storms.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.