textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Cooler and breezy today following a cold front.

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected Thursday through this weekend.

- Chilly weather is forecast Sunday following a strong cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Temps at 10 PM were hovering in the 50s over much of our area thanks to steady WSW breezes and a smattering of high clouds. A surface trough was creeping off the Caprock as SW winds veered more westerly well in advance of a cold front plunging south from near I70 in ern CO and nwrn KS. At its current pace, this front should enter our TX Panhandle counties around 4 AM and exit our southern row of counties by sunrise. Progged MSLP gains of 6-8 mb in 3-hr look hefty enough to open a window of 25-35 mph gusts that gradually taper through the morning as the gradient relaxes. NBM winds were upped accordingly through the morning until a surface high arrives this afternoon with surprisingly light winds of 10 mph or less. Even with some lingering high clouds, high temps will still end up above our normals of the low-to-mid 50s, but only 5 degrees or so compared to Tuesday's 15-20 degree departures. Swift NW flow aloft will keep the surface high moving out of the forecast area Wednesday night allowing a rapid return to SW winds that should help keep lows from getting too cold.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with a few minor changes initiated for this package. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will remain amplified over North America, with a broad, subtropical ridge shifting eastward towards the Pacific Coast, while a longwave trough over the Appalachian Mountains begins its exit into the North Atlantic. Northwesterly flow will persist over the CWA as a result of the superposition of these large-scale features and the strong subsidence layer over the region. Boundary-layer mixing will be shallow owing to the steady increase in theta-e with height; however, Thursday is slated to be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures nearly 15 degrees above seasonal norms. Multiple shorter-wave perturbations translating through the core of the jet stream, which will be displaced to the north of the CWA, will induce lee cyclogenesis in the northern Great Plains and result in a gradual steepening of the leeward pressure falls across W TX. Winds were raised from the NBM, with breezy, west-southwesterly flow expected to develop by solar noon. All in all, another breezy and dry day is on tap Thursday, with high temperatures falling short of any prior records.

A heavily modified Arctic cold front is forecast to move through the region Friday morning. While this front will be of true Arctic origin, its axis of dilatation will have been long canted away from the theta-e ridge centered in the southern Great Plains, such that the CAA post-FROPA will be much less than what is normally expected with an Arctic cold front. This a posteriori is related to the displacement and orientation of the jet stream relative to the CWA and the related shortwave trough(s) translating through the amplified belt of northwesterly flow (e.g., ~130 kt at 300 mb) over the Canadian Prairie and northern Great Plains. Highs were nudged a few degrees cooler from the NBM due to the extensive CAA and snowpack across the northern Great Plains, and are forecast to climb into the lower-middle 60s despite the brisk, northeasterly winds during the afternoon hours. Global NWP guidance has also converged on its prior wide range in highs, yielding increased confidence in the temperature forecast. Winds were also raised a few kt, as the initial FROPA should result in an ephemeral spike in pressure tendencies, with the veering winds diminishing by dusk Friday.

A brief period of return flow will develop once again Saturday following the frontolysis of the Arctic cold front, with highs essentially a carbon copy of Thursday amidst the southwesterly breeze. Winds will continue to veer heading into the nighttime hours, as another Arctic cold front surges southward across the Great Plains. This front will be far from any frontolytic processes as it moves through the region given that a particularly intense shortwave trough will emerge over the Upper Midwest, with a surface high between 1040-1044 mb rotating into the north-central Great Plains by Sunday morning. Chilly temperatures are forecast Sunday, and a decision was made to lower highs, with a 50-percent weight applied to the NBM 25th percentile. Highs Sunday are forecast to range from the middle 40s in the Rolling Plains to the lower 50s across the Caprock beneath increasing cloud cover. Beyond Sunday, global NWP guidance is suggesting a shortwave trough to translate through the base of the amplified ridge over the Desert Southwest, but the forecast remains dry with this prognostication.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A cold front that has recently passed through the forecast area is bringing gusty north-northeast winds that will decrease modestly mid to late morning before diminishing late afternoon and veering south as surface high pressure moves quickly to the east of the area. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.