textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Critical fire danger will persist Sunday and return next week.

- Another hot day is on the way Sunday with strengthening breezes behind an afternoon cold front.

- Record-challenging heat is expected to return to the region Tuesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Water vapor imagery highlights the ongoing deamplification and flattening of the upper level ridge over the Desert SW as shortwave energy passes over the Great Basin. This evolution will allow a cold front to quickly move southward over the central plains states Sunday morning and eventually reach West TX by Sunday afternoon. Before then, we will see another very warm overnight period with continued southwest breezes resulting in lows in the 50s and 60s on Sunday morning. It will still be plenty hot ahead of the arrival of the front as we remain beneath the eastern edge of the flat ridging aloft and compressional warming through the first half of the Sunday allows temperatures to quickly rise into the 90s to low 100s by early to mid afternoon over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Farther north, the arrival of the front (likely around noon over the far southern TX Panhandle) results in a bit more uncertainty regarding high temperatures over our northern zones. A north to south gradient in high temperatures is expected Sunday with highs in the low 90s likely over the TX Panhandle, with much warmer highs farther south. Also of note, post-frontal northeast winds will be on the breezy side, which combined with the very dry airmass and extremely dry fuel states will bring another day of critical fire danger to the region. See the fire weather section below for details.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Monday will feature a welcome break from the heat as highs are only expected to reach the middle 70s as light easterly surface flow continues behind Sunday's cold front. This break will be brief though, as models remain in good agreement depicting the upper level ridge rebuilding over the Desert SW on Tuesday and shifting eastward over our area on Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, record- challenging or record-breaking heat will return to West TX during the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe, with Wednesday and Thursday looking like the hottest days of the week with highs in the upper 90s. In contrast to this past week, persistent surface troughing will be present in the lee of the Rockies which will result in stronger southwest winds during most of the week, and elevated to critical fire danger is consequently likely through most of the week. Models are in good agreement that our next cold front will arrive on Friday, but the overall pattern still appears dry through the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

LLWS recently diminished at all terminals with steadier SW winds of 10-15 knots. FROPA is on track for 16-18Z followed by NNE winds of 20 knots with gusts increasing to 35 knots by late afternoon with some BLDU possible at LBB.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide on Sunday through most of the day. Winds will initially be out of the west at 15 to 20 mph during the morning hours, but will become northeasterly behind a southward-moving cold front later in the day. This wind shift is currently expected to arrive over the southern TX Panhandle around noon, then gradually progress southward through the remainder of the area during the rest of the afternoon. Winds will increase behind the front, with sustained post-frontal northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph expected to persist through Sunday evening. Minimum RH values as low as 5 percent will occur during the early afternoon, with RH rising only very slowly behind the front. These conditions will result in RFTI values from 5 to 7, and a Red Flag Warning is therefore in effect for the entire forecast area from 9 AM until 9 PM Sunday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.