textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Cooler and windy on Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold front.

- There is a slight chance for light snow in the southwestern South Plains Monday, with little-to-no accumulations expected.

- Cold and cloudy conditions Monday will be followed by a gradual warming trend throughout the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Regional surface observations at 10 PM and our WSR-88D revealed a weak Pacific cold front bisecting the FA along a line from Plains- Lubbock-Memphis. This boundary will keep scooting east overnight ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough that was exiting eastern NM in drier southwest flow. This drying has already been swift in eroding our thick high clouds from earlier, so Sunday is shaping up mostly sunny even as a potent upper low descends across the Dakotas with the base of its parent trough grazing our area by midday.

The big story for Sunday remains a strong FROPA during the daytime, likely reaching our panhandle counties around 9 AM or so. This front was poised from northeast CO to the western NE Sandhills at 11 PM and so far models are keeping pace well. With mild westerlies overnight, our temps will have an easy opportunity to warm into the 60s and even some 70s well ahead of the front before CAA ramps up. Forecast 6-hr pressure rises on the order of 6-9 mb and ample mixing into 25-35 knots of northerly flow (highest near the Red River) up to 850 mb spells a window for advisory-level winds (sustained 30-39 mph), mainly off the Caprock during the afternoon. NBM's winds were again boosted to the 75th percentile to better match MOS speeds, although these as a whole are still shy of advisory speeds. There may also be brief bouts of light blowing dust (even off the Caprock), although this appears too limited in duration for mention in the grids. The gradient in high temps was sharpened for Sunday given the front's timing which supports ample compressional warming for our southern zones in the pre-frontal sector where gusty WNW winds will unfold. Until the CAA and stronger NNE winds arrive, we could very well see areas in the southern Rolling Plains flirt with 80 degrees.

As the gradient flow relaxes Sunday night and dewpoints tumble into the single digits, temps will quickly drop to below freezing across the board for the first time in over a week. However, increasing mid and high clouds under the right entrance region to an upper jet in westerly flow will overspread our SW zones through the night within a zonal and shearing trough. The ability for this saturated layer to deepen sufficiently before daybreak Monday and overcome a sizable deep and dry sub-cloud layer seems unlikely at this time given the brunt of elevated Fn ascent and saturation focusing in far southern NM and far W TX. NBM's measurable PoPs during the pre-dawn hours on Monday were traded for just flurries in Yoakum County.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will remain amplified over North America, featuring a vertically-stacking cyclone rotating into northeastern Canada and a substantially tilted Rex Block over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. The superposition of these large-scale systems relative to the CWA will maintain the longitudinally-elongate tranche of the downstream jet streak, which will be accompanied by intense, moist, isentropic ascent within the mid- and high-level theta surfaces. A well-defined corridor of subgeostrophic flow within the base of the nearly inverted trough will result in the formation of a deformation zone stretching across southern NM and into portions of W TX. Northwesterly flow beneath 500 mb will maintain NVA, and the associated subsidence accompanying the northwesterly flow will yield a very dry airmass beneath the highly elevated convection (i.e., virga near and above 600 mb) advecting eastward over the CWA Monday. The northern periphery of the deformation zone is forecast to clip the southwestern South Plains Monday, where a low potential for light snow is forecast, with snow flurries elsewhere into the central South Plains. High temperatures for Monday were lowered, as the thick overcast, the presence of a 1036-1038 mb surface high, and the effects of wet-bulb cooling (mainly on the Caprock), restrict diabatic warming. Highs are forecast to range from the middle 30s in the southwestern South Plains, to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere on the Caprock, and in the lower 40s in the Rolling Plains.

PoPs generated by the NBM have been lowered to slight chance and confined to the southwestern zones, as high-resolution NWP guidance continues to hone in on the deformation band remaining south and west of the CWA. Forecast soundings continue to indicate thermal profiles favorable for the formation of small, plate-like crystals, with no dendritic growth expected. Little, if any, accumulations of snow are forecast Monday, especially as these small snowflakes succumb to the effects of sublimation upon descent. The displacement of the right entrance-region to the mid- and high-level jet streaks to the south of the CWA will also prevent deep-layer saturation of the columns from evolving, thereby reducing the potential for the columns to become supersaturated with respect to ice. There will be minimal QPF associated with this event despite SLRs being near the standard 10:1 ratio. The potential for light snow will wane after dark, as subsidence advects southeastward over W TX following the eastward progression of the troughing.

The Rex Block over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean will begin to decay Tuesday, as a shortwave trough pivots across the northern Pacific Ocean and begins to absorb the cut-off low meandering offshore Baja Sur. This large-scale interaction, in addition to the vertically-stacking cyclone wobbling over northeastern Canada, will allow the apex of the mid/upper-level ridge to broaden as it sloshes eastward over the Rocky Mountains. A gradual warming trend will follow Tuesday, with highs rebounding into the upper 40s and lower 50s on the Caprock, and into the middle 50s in the Rolling Plains, as weak, southwesterly winds return. The strong subsidence layer above 800 mb will keep mixing heights shallow, offsetting any potential for additional warming of the airmass Tuesday. The Arctic airmass will finally erode by mid-week, with highs rebounding into the upper 50s and lower 60s Wednesday, followed by the return of above-normal highs by the end of the week while remaining dry.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

VFR with westerly LLWS developing in the next few hours and continuing until 15-16Z. FROPA a few hours afterward will cause northerly gusts approaching 40 knots at CDS (less elsewhere) which will continue for much of the afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.