textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- Chilly overnight with the passage of a cold front.

- Chilly weather returns on Monday with an up-and-down trend in temperatures expected through the rest of the week as several cold fronts pass through the region.

- No precipitation is currently expected through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Westerly surface winds have allowed surface temps to warm into the mid 40s/low 50 as of 11 AM from the teens/low 20s observed this morning. We should continue to see temps warm into the 60s by mid afternoon. The cold front that is expected to push through tonight is currently pushing into northern Nebraska as of 11 AM. The front is expected to begin moving into the FA by midnight tonight and through the entire FA by sunrise Monday. Winds will remain breezy and out of the east all day Monday and will help to keep temps on the chilly side. While cloud cover is expected tomorrow, it will not be low stratus or overly thick and will allow for some solar insulation to warm highs into the 40s across much of the FA. Winds will begin to diminish around sunset as a surface high begins to settle over the FA. This will help lows drop to the teens once again by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Surface lee troughing will veer winds to the south/southwest before Noon Tuesday and will allow for some warming with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 50s. Wednesday's current forecast has slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the low/mid 60s, but this will depend on the timing of the passage of a cold front. The GFS keeps the front well north of the FA with the FROPA occurring after 10 PM Wednesday evening. The ECMWF is much quicker with the FROPA before 12Z Wednesday and would result in highs that struggle to get out of the 40s. The timing of the front is difficult to narrow to a small time frame before the front exists so for now the NBM forecast will remain the official forecast. The forecast continues to vary greatly between models beyond Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF keeps a closed low off the coast of Baja through Saturday evening with zonal flow and dry conditions remaining over the FA. The GFS brings the close low over SOCAL as early as sunrise Friday and across southern Arizona into Baja by sunrise Saturday. A cold front will have already pushed through the FA by noon Friday. Widespread precip then develops Friday night due to a combination of isentropic upglide and upper level diffluence and lasts through late Saturday. Currently the precip type is all snow. The previous several runs of the GFS were not nearly as wet, was delayed another 24 to 48 hours, and was more representative of the ECMWF. At this time the NBM has not picked up on this pattern and keeps the forecast dry which seems logical at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites. Light southwesterly winds will continue through the rest of today. A cold front will push through the region early Monday morning bringing breezy northeasterly winds. Winds are expected to decrease by early Monday evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.