textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.

- Storm chances return overnight Tuesday and expected to prevail through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

After a much needed rainy evening yesterday, today is expected to be hot and mostly dry. Current surface observations this morning show the wind from the southwest. Winds are expected to shift to the southeast early this afternoon. On the upper levels, a positively tilted upper trough will amplify across eastern CONUS while a secondary upper trough sits across the Pacific Northwest. Upper ridging between the two systems will prevail over the CWA through today. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will keep temperatures hot today with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the region. With convective temperatures being reached and moist upslope surface flow, isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening, mainly across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. With moderate CAPE up to 1300 J/kg, there is potential for severe thunderstorms. With high-based thunderstorms expected, the main hazard possible with any severe storms will be strong wind gusts, however moderate hail cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms are expected to clear out before midnight.

Once storms clear, the rest of the night will be pleasant with light southerly winds. Tuesday will be the first day of a cool down for the rest of the week. On the upper levels, a trough will build along the coast of Baja California through the first part of the day. As the upper trough amplifies, the aforementioned upper ridge will begin to shift eastward. Although temperatures decrease on Tuesday, it will be only slightly as the upper ridging will impact the upper levels through the afternoon keeping highs in the 90s. Winds will shift back to the southeast mid-Tuesday afternoon. Southeasterly surface flow will usher in moisture with dewpoints in the 60s for much of the region. Sufficient moisture and forcing from upslope flow and a passing upper shortwave, shower and thunderstorms chances return Late Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAMs indicate storms developing across eastern NM just before sunset and expand eastward through the rest of the evening and overnight. With little instability, severe potential will be low with this round of storms, however cannot rule out a severe wind gust or two and some small hail. With PWAT values up to 1.5", we could see periods of heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The showers and thunderstorms that began overnight Tuesday are expected to prevail into Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. The upper trough off the coast of Baja California will continue to amplify over northern portions of Mexico through the day Wednesday. At the same time, an upper shortwave will develop just east of the Rockies and track across the Central Plains. Forcing from this upper shortwave and lingering moisture will prolong storm chances through Wednesday. Thursday onward, models disagree with the progression of the upper trough. ECMWF has a faster progression with the trough passing over the CWA Friday and continue through central CONUS over the weekend. GFS has a slower progression with the trough stalling over northern Mexico over the weekend and finally passing overhead by early next week. The ECMWF progression would prolong precipitation chances through the weekend while the GFS track would cut off moisture keeping much of the weekend dry. In the next couple of days, the models should come to a better agreement for the upper level pattern through the weekend. With the uncertainty of the upper level pattern through the latter half of the week, have left NBM PoPs as is through the end of the week. Severe potential for the extended is low, however we could see some isolated severe thunderstorms. The main hazard with this round of storms will be the amount of rainfall. The storm total QPF has decreased compared to previous forecasts, however it shows most of the region will see 1 to 1.75" which could result in some localized flooding. As for temperatures, with the prolonged precipitation chances and cloud cover through the extended forecast, temperatures will cool through the end of the week with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the region. However, given the expected isolated coverage, no mention was made in the TAF at the moment. The KLBB and KPVW terminals will see the highest chances of isolated storms with the peak between 22Z through 02Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.