textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Well above-average temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Chance of rain late Wednesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Upper flow will remain zonal this morning through tonight. The surface pressure gradient will increase through the early morning into this afternoon as a broad lee surface low develops across eastern Colorado. The surface low will push eastward across the Central Plains through the day and will reach the Great Lakes by early Tuesday morning. The close proximity of the surface low will keep winds out of the west this morning into this evening with speeds around 20 to 25 mph. This will help to warm highs into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Winds will slowly decrease to around 10 mph by midnight but will remain mostly out of the west. This will help to keep overnight lows on the warm side, upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Zonal flow aloft will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak surface low will depart to the northeast and lighter winds will result. Very similar conditions are expected both days, although SW winds will be slightly stronger on Wednesday. Nonetheless the seemingly never ending stretch of significantly above-average temperatures will continue, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s under partly-to-mostly sunny skies. Although there are subtle differences from yesterday, models are getting a better handle on the potential rain chances for late Wednesday/Thursday. An upper low will become cutoff from the main flow pattern off the central California coast and track southward, making an easterly turn over the Baja Peninsula. Much of the best associated southwesterly moisture advection and forcing downstream will not occur until it re-phases with the main flow, which looks to occur sometime early Thursday morning over the Desert Southwest. The ECMWF/UKMET are slightly faster with the overall system progression than the GFS and therefore show the largest swath of precipitation arriving sooner (early Thursday morning vs Thursday afternoon). In any case, chance PoPs remain in order to account for any future changes to how and when the aforementioned upper features interact. A few showers on the backside of the trough may persist into Friday morning, however skies will clear thereafter through the weekend and cooler temperatures look to finally be ushered in with highs potentially falling closer to seasonal averages in the 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR with W winds gusting to 25-30 knots toward noon and lasting until sunset.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.