textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- There is an elevated-to-critical fire danger expected for most of the Caprock and the northern Rolling Plains on Monday.

- A quick round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday night into Tuesday night.

- Blustery winds are expected mid-week, with a warm-up to follow into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday morning) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a split-flow regime encompassed North America, with a quasi-zonal, northern-stream jetlet stretched across the 49th parallel; and a large-scale, closed low that has become nearly cut-off west of Baja Sur. Geopotential height tendencies were slightly positive (+1-2 dam) per the 09/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts, as the apex of a low-amplitude, subtropical ridge downstream of the baroclinic low eclipses the southern Great Plains. Meanwhile, the southern-stream jet streak associated with the split-flow pattern was rounding the base of the open trough the closed low is embedded within, with its leading edge over central TX while the northern tranche also eclipsing the CWA. Elevated, mid-level convection in the form of virga was observed earlier today, in addition to several bands of ACCAS, the latter being a classic sign of mid-level instability. Clouds across the southern zones will advect northeastward tonight, with a clear sky expected area-wide through the predawn hours Monday. The closed low is forecast to rotate eastward into over Baja Sur throughout the next 24-hours, with the onset of geopotential height falls to follow Monday night.

At the surface, a weak cyclone was located in southeastern CO, with a larger-scale troughing boundary situated across the western High Plains. The CWA is located to the southeast of this surface trough, evident by the differential vertical mixing that resulted in a sharp gradient in dewpoints on WTM data to the north of the CWA (i.e., dewpoints ranged from the lower-to-upper 20s from north-to-south across the CWA, respectively, with dewpoints near zero degrees in the northern TX PH). Winds remain backed to the south across the southern tranche of the CWA before veering west-southwestward in the far southern TX PH. The weak cyclone is expected to rotate eastward throughout the predawn hours Monday beneath a shortwave impulse in the mid-levels generated by the narrow corridor of horizontal shearing instability evident on water-vapor imagery. Winds will veer towards the west-southwest Monday, with the surface trough bisecting the CWA along a line from CDS-LBB-HOB while winds become breezy across locales northwest of the boundary. Near-record high temperatures are forecast Monday at CDS and LBB, with highs of 90 degrees and 87 degrees, respectively. Very warm temperatures, combined with breezy winds and low relative humidity, particularly to the northwest of the surface trough, will yield a critical fire danger across the far southwestern TX PH. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for Castro, Parmer, and Swisher Counties between noon through 8 PM CDT. A Fire Danger Statement will also be in effect from noon through 8 PM CDT for most of the Caprock and the northern Rolling Plains. Higher relative humidity values and weaker winds across the southern zones preclude fire weather headlines Monday.

By Monday night, the closed low will begin to rotate into northern Mexico, with the trough expected to become more-open as a slight concavity occurs within the northern-stream, quasi-zonal jet streak translating over the northern Great Basin. The net result of this increasingly progressive movement to the opening cyclone will allow the leading edge of the jet streaks rounding the base of the trough to emerge over W TX late Monday night. Moist, isentropic ascent will largely be concentrated within the mid- and high-level theta surfaces as the leading wave of DPVA propagates over W TX, leading to the potential for elevated convection that will be isolated or widely-scattered at best. The large-scale mass response following the onset of the geopotential height falls will cause the surface trough to slosh poleward before undergoing warm-frontogenesis, and the moistening of the boundary-layer via both WAA and diabatic cooling as it decouples will erode the depth of dry air enough to allow at least a few spurts of rainfall to occur despite elevated convection remaining rooted between 650-700 mb. PoPs have been capped at slight chance, with a lightning mention retained, due to the improvements to the EML heading into Tuesday morning. Severe weather is not expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

At the beginning of the period, the closed low previously rotating over northern Mexico is forecast to dissolve into an open wave, with the positively-tilted trough ejecting into W TX late Tuesday. There is some indication that a compact vorticity lobe may be left intact versus stretching out entirely; however, this should remain trivial due to the progressiveness of the trough. As the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains, the arrival of the 500 mb and 250 mb jet streaks, near 50 kt and 90 kt, respectively, will result in backing of the deep-layer flow aloft and spawn a lee cyclone near the Raton Mesa that is forecast to deepen to 996 mb as it rotates into southwestern KS. Low-end windy conditions are expected to develop area-wide Tuesday due to the moderate isallobaric response generated by the cyclone and the high-momentum descending through the mid-levels. Southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 40-45 mph, are forecast; and winds should remain shy of advisory threshold. The CWA is also forecast to be bifurcated by a dryline extending southward from the lee cyclone, with a Pacific cold front trailing not too far behind the dryline; and the dryline should propagate into the Rolling Plains by Tuesday afternoon.

The magnitude of moist, isentropic ascent and related DCVA may lead to the rare occurrence of high-based convection west of the dryline early Tuesday afternoon. NBM PoPs have been maintained, but lowered to slight chance, for locales west of the I-27/HWY-87 corridors; and have otherwise been left intact for areas east into the Rolling Plains for the afternoon and evening hours. The arrival of the dry slot will eventually nix PoPs for the western zones by the latter half of the afternoon, but the potential for thunderstorms will last through Tuesday evening in the Rolling Plains. Boundary-parallel flow would yield a mess of fast-moving, multi-cellular clusters, with the potential for weak, mid-level mesocyclones that may produce a large hail and/or damaging wind event or two in the Rolling Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours before storms move east of the 100th meridian by nightfall. Despite the somewhat strong gradient winds Tuesday, the fire weather potential will be curtailed by the higher relative humidity (e.g., near and above 20 percent), but elevated fire weather conditions may still develop to the west of the dryline despite the marginal RH values.

PoPs will wane quickly Tuesday night as the dry slot advects over W TX, with winds expected to diminish during the overnight hours following the passage of the Pacific cold front as the core of the jet streaks translate east of the CWA. A strong cold front is then forecast to blast through the CWA Wednesday, with advisory-level winds forecast for most of W TX. Winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile, which lies within the middle of the MEX/ECX/ECM guidance. Much cooler temperatures will follow, with highs peaking in the middle 60s for most locales Wednesday. Winds will subside by dusk Wednesday as a 1030 mb surface high rotates into the southern Great Plains, with near-freezing lows forecast Thursday morning. The upper air pattern is then forecast to deamplify as a subtropical ridge nudges northward into the Desert Southwest, with dry and very warm weather to follow by this weekend.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

An approaching upper level storm system will attempt to bring MVFR CIGS and visbys into the KLBB terminal later this morning. However, current thinking is that these conditions will not persist for an extended period of time. The same storm system will then bring breezy southwest winds to all TAF sites this afternoon. Winds will then decrease after sunset with another possible round of MVFR CIGS and visbys early Tuesday morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023.