textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the Caprock through early Wednesday morning.

- Dry and warm weather returns Wednesday afternoon and continues through the end of the work week.

- A more unsettled and slightly cooler weather pattern arrives this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

An eastward advance of a healthy monsoonal moisture plume brought an evening of active weather to the region on Tuesday, with residual showers and thunderstorms (with some locally heavy rain) continuing through tonight and early Wednesday morning mainly west of I-27 before quieter weather returns after sunrise. An upper level ridge centered over the TN Valley will slowly build westward over the next 24 hours, effectively cutting off our supply of mid/upper level moisture as the monsoonal plume retreats to our west. As a result, dry weather is expected Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night across the entire forecast area. Above normal temperatures continue area-wide Wednesday with afternoon highs again mainly in the 90s. Quiet and unseasonably warm weather is then set to persist into Thursday as the position of the ridge aloft remains generally unchanged.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Monday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dry and very warm conditions carry into Friday as a broad ~599 dam H5 sets up over AR into northeast TX. Not until Friday night do we see this high faltering which allows monsoonal moisture to creep into our westernmost counties complete with some rain chances. The arrival of a improved SW flow aloft on Saturday in the base of a broad trough cresting the Rockies spells improved rain chances, especially on the Caprock, where the axis of monsoonal moisture overlaps with a SW-NE surface trough. This pattern supports a regional precip event with heavy rain at times given PWAT anomalies reaching +0.5 to +0.8" and a window for training convection. The pattern remains unsettled and turns cooler for Sunday following a bona fide cold front with reasonably moist E-NE winds in the lowest levels. With southwest flow lingering aloft through early next week, additional chances for precip remain intact despite mixed ensemble signals.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

An outflow boundary, currently moving through KPVW and KLBB early this morning will allow for a brief period of light and variable winds, before winds remain generally light out of the south through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.