textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- An elevated fire danger is expected Monday afternoon across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- Tuesday will bring chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, with a very low risk of severe weather.

- A stormy pattern will set in on Thursday into the weekend, bringing the potential for severe weather and flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Surface ridging overnight will give way to lee-troughing across the Southern High Plains on Monday, underneath broad, weak ridging aloft. Temperatures will be seasonable, rising into the 60s and 70s in the afternoon after a relatively chilly morning. Southerly surface winds will become breezy across the far southwest Texas Panhandle in the afternoon, and alongside RH values in the teens and dry fuels, will support an elevated fire danger. A southerly low-level jet will develop Monday night, owing to an approaching shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will be slow to return to the region, however, substantial mid and upper-level moisture will accompany this trough and result in increasing cloud cover toward Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Temperatures should be slow to warm Tuesday given the anticipated cloud cover. Highs are expected to be in remain in the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s in the Rolling Plains. Despite the marginal low-level moisture, ascent ahead of the trough will likely lead to some elevated shower activity developing across eastern NM, and moving into West Texas during the day. Forecast soundings show very little CAPE due to the moist profile aloft and cool sfc temps, but there may be just enough for some weak t-storms. The strong LLJ Tuesday evening may sustain some of this activity into the Rolling Plains as the trough passes by. Rain amounts should be on the light side overall with this wave.

The Gulf begins to open up on Wednesday with deep SE-S flow developing across the region in response to a deep upper low digging southward along the California coast. Dewpoints in the 50s lower 60s are expected to develop to the forecast area aside from near the NM state line, where a dryline may develop in the afternoon. At this time, with the lack of any upper-level support and only weak dryline convergence, we expect the atmosphere to remain capped Wednesday afternoon despite temperatures warming into the lower 80s.

Thursday may be a different story due to increasing moisture levels with an open fetch to the gulf, and a shortwave progged to pass over the area within the southwest flow aloft downstream of the upper low still off-shore. There is still some uncertainty in the thermodynamic profile, degree of lift and dryline position this far out but the QPF signal is fairly robust amongst ensemble members. There's still time to hash out the severe weather threats, but at this time guidances points to moderate amounts of CAPE and shear that would support at least some severe weather potential, along with PWATS and storm motion vectors that would support locally heavy rain potential as well.

As the Upper-low approaches the coast of SoCaL Friday, guidance shows another round of storm development, although this round could develop farther west in NM given the low-level moisture backed up to the mountains and the lift approaching from the southwest. So, additional uncertainty in timing comes into play and whether or not storms will moving into the area late Friday afternoon or Friday evening or still off to our west. And this in turn will lead into uncertainties for Saturday with the evolution of Friday and Friday night's activity. Also, at this point we start to see divergence in model solutions on how the upper low will progress across the Desert Southwest and finally into the Southern High Plains with the timing of it's emergence over us ranging from Sunday to Tuesday! The upshot of all this is that the system does have the potential to bring multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity to the entire forecast area, and analogs for this type of system strongly suggest a threat of severe storms and heavy rainfall will be present with this activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Light south winds overnight will increase slightly by mid-morning with VFR continuing area-wide.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.