textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Low chances for severe thunderstorms return Thursday afternoon across the Caprock.

- The potential for severe storms and flash flooding will increase area-wide Friday and into the weekend.

- Overnight rounds of storms and heavy rainfall are forecast this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a split-flow regime was encompassing the Lower 48, with the low-amplitude, shortwave trough responsible for the light virga and/or showers propagating east of the CWA. Farther north, a compact, fast-moving, shortwave trough was digging into the Canadian Prairies, and has maintained the large-scale pressure falls and resultant southerly breeze across the CWA. Convection that is ongoing to the northwest of the CWA is expected to decay before reaching W TX following diabatic stabilization of the airmass, with the a residual band of elevated showers in the Rolling Plains that will concurrently dissipate. Fair weather is expected for the rest of tonight, with the southerly breeze becoming light overnight beneath a clearing sky. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer Wednesday afternoon compared today as a shortwave ridge emerging over the Great Basin continues to shift eastward over the next 24 hours. The northern-stream shortwave trough will pivot over the James River Valley while becoming neutrally-tilted by mid-day Wednesday, and will maintain the leeward pressure falls across the entire Great Plains. Winds were raised a smidgen for Wednesday afternoon given the expectation for deeper boundary-layer mixing in conjunction with the maintenance of the leeward pressure falls and cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will develop across the far southwestern TX PH during the afternoon hours Wednesday, as winds will remain slightly veered relative to the rest of the CWA, resulting in RH reductions to near 15 percent beyond solar noon across those locales.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

There is increasing confidence in a multi-day, multi-faceted severe weather event for the CWA starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend, and will be accompanied by a risk for flash flooding. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature the ejection of the northern-stream shortwave trough over the Laurentian Continental Divide, allowing the low-amplitude, shortwave ridge west of the CWA to shift into the southern Great Plains. The quasi-zonal, subtropical jet streak is forecast to maintain its superposition over Mexico, which should cause a shortwave impulse to translate through the low-amplitude ridge Thursday afternoon. At the surface, moist advection will persist, with the southerly breeze becoming brisk as the arrival of the shortwave impulse generates another lee cyclone in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. The combination of the slightly positive geopotential height rises atop warm theta-e advection within the low-levels will aid in boosting temperatures into the lower-middle 80s area-wide, with the prior surface trough west of the CWA transitioning into a dryline.

The presence of the shortwave ridge will yield a weakness in the mean flow aloft (i.e., effective shear magnitudes of 20-25 kt); however, strong theta-e advection within the mixed-layer will yield MLCAPE values between 1,000-1,500 J/kg. Forecast hodographs remain somewhat elongated owing to the contribution of 250 mb winds of 30 kt, so despite the significantly dampened state to the mid-level flow, one or two weakly supercellular storms are forecast to develop and propagate eastward onto the Caprock during the late afternoon and early evening hours before nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer occurs. A standard risk of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail between 1-1.5" in diameter will accompany right-moving cells that propagate onto the Caprock, with storms dissipating quickly after dark Thursday. Rapid moisture return is forecast to follow Thursday night into Friday morning as the shortwave ridge departs to the east of the CWA ahead of an amplifying, neutrally-tilting shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Coast. The low-level jet will intensify to around 40 kt during this time, with low-level stratus and/or advection fog forecast to develop and race poleward across the entire CWA.

Cyclonic flow will begin to expand eastward into the southern Great Plains during the day Friday, although mid-level flow will still remain weak as the core of the jet streaks rounding the base of the trough emerge over the Sierra Madre Occidental. Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase accordingly, with the dryline remaining west of the NM state line as the leading shortwave perturbation emerges over the southern Rocky Mountains. High-based storms are forecast to develop west of the CWA late-day Friday, with global NWP guidance continuing to indicate a nocturnal episode of storms as the leading shortwave perturbation ejects over W TX in congruence with the arrival of an intense pair of jet streaks nosing into the region from the southwest. Sharply difluent flow amidst an intensifying corridor of high-level divergence should foster a mixed-mode of convection, with all hazards possible as the low-level jet remains backed into Saturday morning. Torrential rainfall will accompany storms Saturday morning and into the afternoon, as NAEFS/ENS guidance has consistently indicated PWATs between 3-4 standard deviations above the climatological mean. These trends have held steady over the last few days.

Repeated rounds of heavy storms are forecast to last throughout the day Saturday, with the potential for organized convection to be maintained into the nighttime hours Saturday into Sunday morning as the core of the jet streaks translate over W TX. The anomalously high PWATs, coupled with the 250 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt, yields increasing confidence for another overnight heavy rain event for portions of the CWA. Cloud-layer shear vectors will elongate as the core of the jet streaks arrive, which will favor the maintenance of training convection amidst the presence of tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Efficient rainfall will yield a risk for flash flooding despite the fast storm motions due to the repeated rounds of storms moving over the same areas. Severe-caliber storms are also forecast to continue Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, with all hazards possible Saturday afternoon and into the early morning hours Sunday. The shortwave trough is forecast to pivot over the Great Basin by the end of the weekend, with the risk for severe storms reloading for portions of the CWA Sunday into early next week, but details remain nebulous at this range.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR and south winds will prevail through the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Some patchy low stratus near KLBB/KPVW will clear over the next few hours, with only a bit of high level cloud cover expected the rest of the day.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.