textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the South Plains area late Saturday afternoon and evening, some of which may produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances will continue each afternoon and evening through next Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend before a slight cooldown early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A shortwave passing over the South Plains will keep a chance of showers going through early Saturday morning before skies start to clear out and we heat up again. It looks like it will be another hot day, similar to Friday, with highs near 100F on the Caprock and 100-106F in the Rolling Plains. By peak heating, the next weak shortwave in the southwest flow aloft should bring at least some modest large- scale ascent atop the hot, weakly capped airmass over West Texas. In addition, we expect a channel of mid- level moisture to work over the area from the southwest. The result should be isolated to scattered shower and t-storm development within the broad surface trough across the South Plains - and this time we won't need to wait for storms to roll out of eastern NM. Strong/severe wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be the main threats with this activity, but as we've seen recently, isolated instances of marginally large hail may be possible as well. The activity should wane by late Saturday evening, leaving a quiet and very mild night.

Sunday should present a fairly similar weather picture to Saturday, with high temperatures roughly in the same range. The center of the upper ridge will have shifted to the Lwr Ms Vly, with the channel of subtropical moisture still residing over the forecast area. About the only change of note from Saturday will be an increase in low level moisture due to a stronger low-level jet developing Sunday morning. Thus, we'll look for another round of late day and evening showers and t-storms, more likely focused on the Caprock due to stronger capping over the Rolling Plains. Localized heavy rain and downburst winds will be the main threats.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

For Mon thru Wed of next week, the forecast area will remain caught in-between the sprawling upper ridge centered over the Ohio Valley and a large, quasi-stationary upper trough from the Rockies to the Pacific Coast. Lower heights over West Texas in this pattern should produce a modest cooling trend, more apparent on the Caprock, with highs in the lower 90s by Wed, than in the Rolling Plains, where highs will remain near 100. Daily rain chances should also continue, but may begin to shift west by midweek depending on where the ridging/troughing sets up exactly which will guide the mid-level moisture channel and disturbances embedded within. Looking farther out, a gradual drying and warming trend is expected late next week as upper ridging strengthens over TX, however, a weakness in the height field may remain across NM and WTX and prevent completely benign wx.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A line of thunderstorms with strong winds were currently moving through the area. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves eastward with winds decreasing at the TAF sites as the thunderstorms move farther away from the terminals. Scattered storms will be possible late Saturday afternoon at all TAF sites but coverage and timing confidence is low at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.