textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Windy Wednesday with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially off the Caprock.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Friday evening.

- Elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions continue through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Flow aloft remains quasi-zonal over most of the CONUS, with water vapor imagery highlighting a shortwave trough axis just off the SoCal coast as of late Tuesday evening. This feature will rapidly shift eastward over the next 24 hours and is progged to be near the Four Corners by midday Wednesday and be east of the Rockies by Wednesday evening. This evolution will influence quite a strong surface response, with models in good agreement that a strong surface low will rapidly deepen over eastern Colorado by late morning, with an associated trough axis extending southward into eastern New Mexico. Initially this will result in fairly robust southwesterly surface flow developing by early Wednesday afternoon, which will strengthen even more and turn west-southwesterly as a modified Pacific front passes eastward through the region by early evening. Sustained winds are likely to reach or exceed 30 mph on Wednesday afternoon and evening near the TX/NM state line, and a Wind Advisory has therefore been issued for western portions of the Caprock.

Regarding precipitation potential on Wednesday, the upper level shortwave will provide an impressive amount of forcing for ascent, and the middle and upper atmosphere are progged to be nearly saturated. However, the Pacific front itself will result in a notable drying of the lower atmosphere, with T/Td spreads of 20-30C expected over most of the Caprock. As a result, precipitation potential for a majority of the region will take the form of elevated fast-moving rain showers with a few embedded storms. As a result, most areas along and west of I-27 currently look likely to remain mostly dry, but some locations could see a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. Farther east, deeper and more significant low level moisture will remain in place, which combined with large-scale forcing for ascent courtesy of the upper wave and surface front is expected to result in a better potential for thunderstorms off the Caprock. Current expectation is for a broken line of surface-based thunderstorms to develop over the SE TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains after about 4 PM, then move rapidly eastward and out of the forecast area by early to mid evening. These storms will have the potential to become severe with plentiful instability and shear available, with a few damaging wind gusts and instances of large hail possible before storms exit to the east. The probability of severe weather farther west on the Caprock is low at this time. Things will finally settle down after sunset with all precipitation exiting to our east and winds weakening during the evening.

Finally, we do still expect critical fire weather conditions to develop over much of the Caprock on Wednesday as winds strengthen and the lower atmosphere dries. Despite the cloud cover and potential for some very light rain, humidity values will fall below 20 percent which combined with the strong winds will result in favorable conditions for rapid fire spread, especially over the SW TX Panhandle and western South Plains that have not seen precipitation over the past several days. With this and mind and the very dry fuel states, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for most areas west of I-27 for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Our long term forecast will start off with a quiet Thursday. The upper shortwave that passed through central CONUS on Wednesday will have continued eastward leaving mostly zonal flow aloft. Moderate to breezy westerly winds Thursday morning will gradually shift to the south in response to a lee surface low developing over central CO. Southerly surface flow during the afternoon will aide in warming temperatures into the 80s for much of the region. Some areas off the Caprock will see highs in the lower 90s. Elevated fire danger will be possible Thursday with breezy winds, warm temperatures, and RH values as low as 9 percent. 80 degree temperatures will continue into Friday, however an upper pattern change will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Friday. Ahead of the precipitation chances, elevated to critical fire weather danger will return Friday with breezy southwesterly winds and warm temperatures. It will finally feel like spring this weekend as a cold front is progged to push through the region late Friday through early Saturday cooling temperatures to seasonal average.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. Southwesterly winds are expected to pick up early this afternoon. Wind speeds of 20-25 knots and wind gusts up to 30-35 knots will be possible at all three TAF sites. Patchy blowing dust could impact KPVW and KLBB, however expect visibilities to remain VFR conditions. Thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon through early evening near KCDS. Winds will begin to decrease gradually after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Critical fire danger expected today, mainly on the Caprock. Winds will quickly increase late morning through the early afternoon hours. Southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected on the Caprock with the strongest winds along and just inside the NM/TX border. Although still breezy, winds off the Caprock will not be as strong with speeds of 20 to 25 mph expected. Highs will once again be unseasonably warm in the 80s to lower 90s. RH values will reach as low 17 percent. Although there are slight chances for light rain showers beginning early afternoon, critically dry fuels and strong winds will make it very likely for fire to spark and spread rapidly. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of the Caprock from 12 PM CDT until 9 PM CDT Wednesday. Elevated fire danger is expected for Briscoe, Floyd, Crosby, and Garza Counties with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and RH values around 20-25 percent. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for those counties from 12 PM CDT until 9 PM CDT Wednesday.

Elevated to critical fire danger will be possible Thursday. Unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy southwesterly are expected through the afternoon. RH values will reach as low as 9 percent.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.