textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Hot and dry Tuesday.

- Heat Advisory temperatures possible towards the end of the week.

- Daily storm chances return the latter half of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

After daily thunderstorm chances the past few days, we will see a break in precipitation the next couple of days. Current satellite imagery shows an upper ridge sitting across the Desert Southwest up to southeastern CON and southwestern KS. At the same time, a positively tilted upper trough spans from the Great Lakes region to northeastern Texas. The upper trough will gradually shift east which will allow the upper ridging to expand east across the state of Texas. Subsidence below the upper ridging will keep the conditions dry today and Tuesday. Slight thickness increases will keep temperatures hot with highs in the 90s across the region for Monday and Tuesday. Surface observations indicate a surface low currently sits across the southern Texas Panhandle. Due to the surface low, winds are variable across the region. This surface low will leave the region early this afternoon. At the same time a lee surface trough will develop across CO effectively shifting winds to the southeast later this afternoon. Southeasterly upslope flow and the surface trough will result in thunderstorms developing across central NM. However, models indicate all storms will die before reaching the NM/TX border. Tonight will be mild and pleasant. Mostly clear skies will cool lows to the lower 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 70s across the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Wednesday will be the start to a multi-day slight warm up through the end of the week. The upper trough across eastern CONUS will begin to deamplify and get pulled into northern flow. As a result, the upper ridging across southwestern CONUS will continue to span east across much of southern CONUS. The upper ridging will prevail over the region through the rest of the week keeping highs hot. Highs in the upper 90s are expected on the Caprock and around Heat Advisory temperatures off the Caprock everyday Wednesday through Friday. Multiple passing upper shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances again Thursday through the weekend. Similar to Tuesday, models indicate thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, storms are expected to clear before reaching the forecast area. There is a chance these storms could prevail into our region, however the chance is low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Continued VFR with light winds.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.