textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Heat will continue for the remainder of this week and well into next week.

- A few thunderstorms remain possible Thursday in the far southwest TX Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The cold front is currently held up over the central Texas Panhandle with little to no forward movement expected through the rest of the night. At best we could see the cold front move into our northern rows but will do little good in relation to cooling temps or producing rainfall. The front could push a little further south into the FA by late Thursday afternoon and could aide in convective development by the early evening hours. Storms would be isolated at best and short lived. The threat for severe storms is low, but a storm or two could produce wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Any evening storms should dissipate before midnight with surface flow becoming south to southwesterly area wide the rest of early Friday morning. Thursday afternoon highs are expected to reach advisory level across the Rolling Plains, therefore a new Heat Advisory has been issued for Thursday from 1 PM to 8 PM.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The heat will continue with temps slightly increase by the weekend as the upper high currently over the Four Corners continues to drift southeastward. The upper high will eventually be nearly overhead by Saturday and remain in place through at least Monday. This may allow temps to increase higher than what the NBM is forecasting and reach into Heat Warning level by Saturday and Sunday. The one possible relief this weekend is the prospect for unorganized isolated convection triggered by a weakness rotating around the high. Most models are in are in somewhat agreement with isolated convection. Beyond the weekend, the forecast remains uncertain. The GFS gives the most despair and keeps the upper high overhead through all of next week thus continuing hot temperatures and dry conditions. The ECMWF is much more forgiving and brings the upper high back over the Desert Southwest and places the FA under favorable northwest upper flow along with a FROPA by late week which, if it actually happens, would be a good rain producer.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions continue, with WSW winds this morning becoming southerly by midday. Scattered high clouds will linger this morning. An isolated storm is possible during the evening, but the chances remain too low (10%) to include in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.