textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Some strong and severe storms possible this afternoon and evening.

- Dry and hotter this weekend, then cooling by middle of next week with daily rain chances developing.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The biggest unknown today will be the extent that mid and high level cloud cover will inhibit boundary layer mixing and therefore convective initiation. At the upper levels of the atmosphere, the nose of a 80-90kt jet will be edging into the region this afternoon. Models show a weak short wave associated with this jet streak moving overhead out of northern Mexico this afternoon. This shortwave may be fairly difficult to locate in water vapor imagery among the stream of mid and high level moisture. Large scale ascent from this shortwave/jet streak will be the primary forcing for convection this afternoon with a very diffuse looking dryline expected. Broad southerly low level flow will bring little to no low level convergence. Surface heating will be expected initiator of storms this afternoon which, as previously mentioned, is a big uncertainty. Some clearing is possible in eastern New Mexico as the mid/upper level cloud shield advects farther eastward. An axis of higher low level theta-e air will exist around the I-27/US87 corridor early this afternoon and shift eastward with time. Some of the latest model soundings have seemed to catch on to the lower mixing expected under the thick cloud cover. Less surface heating may keep most of the area capped although some model soundings show capping weakening enough to possibly reach convective temperatures. Steep mid level lapse rates between 7 to 8 C/km will bring mixed layer instability values anywhere between 1000-2000 J/kg within the higher theta-e axis. The increase in winds through the mid and upper troposphere including 40kt winds at 500mb will bring stronger shear and greater chances of storm organization with any storms that to develop. Despite all of these concerning negative conditions, most latest CAM guidance develops scattered convection over the western South Plains between 3 and 4 pm.

Subsidence will sweep overhead on Saturday as the upper level jet streak moves overhead and then east on Saturday afternoon. A strong short wave trough will rotate out of the central Rockies into the Central/Northern Plains on Saturday as well. This short wave trough will induce surface cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado into western Kansas which will in turn drag the dryline into the far eastern Rolling Plains. Surface winds may remain backed near the border of the FA with veered winds elsewhere. A small amount of large scale ascent will remain over the Big Country into the far southeastern Rolling Plains associated with the departing upper level jet streak. This jet streak will be weakening with time but the entrance region may still bring a brief period of lift to the far southeastern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Mid and upper level flow will remain backed out of the southwest on Sunday with ridging moving overhead. They dryline will again be favored to mix off the caprock Sunday afternoon but subsidence aloft from the ridging may keep convective chances at subdued. Mostly southwest flow aloft will continue through much of next week. This will result in broad southeasterly upslope low level flow just about each afternoon and daily chances of thunderstorms. Any short waves aloft are too subtle to discern at this time scale but some afternoons may be favored over others in the presence of any short wave troughs. Increasing moisture by mid-week may keep temperatures shy of the 90s during the second half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions expected at all sites. KCDS may see lingering showers and thunderstorms past 02z. Wind gusts within 20 miles of convective showers and storms may reach speeds of 50 kts. If dust is visibly being lofted, stay clear of the area. However, absence of dust does not mean an absence of wind. A drop to IFR conditions is possible between 07z and sunrise at KCDS.

Garber

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.