textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- High winds likely for portions of the forecast area today along with blowing dust and an elevated to critical fire danger.

- Not as warm Wednesday, nonetheless dry and windy conditions will lead to critical fire conditions once again.

- Warm and breezy conditions expected through Thursday, before slightly cooler and calmer conditions return.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A wealth of high-level Pacific moisture continued to infiltrate western Texas late this evening ahead of a remnant upper low transitioning into an open wave over the Great Basin. As this trough accelerates east and ejects across the high plains of eastern CO and western KS Tuesday afternoon, a southwesterly gradient flow will sharpen considerably resulting in up to 180 knots at H3, 115 knots at H5, and 75 knots at H7. The cores of the H5 and H7 wind maxima are progged to run from east-central NM to the OK Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon while affecting a good chunk of our NW zones. Even with thicker high clouds early in the day, models agree in this layer thinning by the afternoon which will open the door to even deeper mixing into the H7 layer for many areas. As such, an upgrade to a High Wind Warning was made for most areas on the Caprock with a Wind Advisory buffering the warning. Later shifts may need to expand the southern end of the High Wind Warning as some higher res models are progging a second wind max of 40 knots at 850 mb from Seminole to Lubbock that translates off the Caprock through sunset.

Blowing dust mention was boosted area wide this afternoon given the magnitude and duration of strong and high winds, although it's unclear how low visibilities will become as this is the first widespread high wind event of the season. As such, we'll refrain from blowing dust headlines at this time. The surface pattern through the day will evolve from a sharpening surface trough bisecting the CWA from N-S followed by a Pacific FROPA in our western zones by mid-afternoon that quickly sweeps through the Rolling Plains by sunset. With the 850 mb thermal ridge hanging off the Caprock for much of the day, high temps will vary from near record highs at Childress (87 forecast, record is 88) to the lower 70s near TX-NM border. Westerly winds remain breezy for much of the evening before stronger decoupling and a diminishing gradient flow arrive after midnight making for cooler lows in the 30s west to 40s

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Windy conditions will remain the theme of the extended forecast package, although not as windy to what we expect to see Tuesday. At the H5 level, a wave train is expected as a series of shortwave troughs track through the Intermountain West into the High Plains through mid-week. As a result, flow aloft will remain southwesterly to near zonal in nature as strong 90+kt jet streaks pass through the Panhandle region. Simultaneously, in response to the wave train aloft, a series of lee cyclones are expected to develop and dive into the South Plains each afternoon Wednesday, then again on Thursday. As these surface lows dig southward, pressure gradient increases are expected to take place with current guidance suggesting 3 hour MSLP changes around 4 to 5 mb with the tightening gradient. Given this and the fact the cores of not only the H7(~50kt) but the H8(~40 kt) wind maxima is progged to pass directly overhead suggests that NBM base winds of 15 to 20 mph will need to be increased, closer to the NBM 75th percentile with wind speeds around 20 to 35 MPH, gusting up to 40 MPH. Which would align better considering forecast soundings fro the NAM and GFS depict a deepening boundary layer in response to the warm temperatures and dry conditions. Although we remain just below advisory criteria, the likelihood of exceeding advisory thresholds looks to be possible given recent model runs. Latest HREF probabilities suggest the likelihood of exceeding advisory level criteria for Wednesday afternoon range from about 40% across the South Plains and near 90% across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. To dive a little deeper, the probability of exceeding wind speeds of 40 MPH across the far SWTP are about 30%. As for Thursday wind speeds, confidence is not as certain given the more northern track of the H5 shortwave, in addition to the weaker H7 (~50 kt) and H8 (~30 kt) wind maximas that do not look to set up directly overhead but in fact more east across the OKC metro. Right now NBM probabilities of exceeding advisory level criteria Thursday afternoon range from about 10% across the South Plains and around 30% across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. While LREF probabilities are even lower across the far SWTP less than 10%. Therefore, this will be something we are keeping close eye on in the coming days, but for now will opt to leave in the NBM base winds depicting speeds around 15 to 20 MPH.

Conditions look to remain critically dry across our areas both Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the decrease in geopotential heights with the passing waves nearby, temperatures will still climb above seasonal normals each afternoon in the 60s and 70s. Therefore, with windy conditions expected and minimum RH values in the single digits to lower teens will give way to the continuation of critical fire conditions Wednesday and elevated to near critical Thursday. As a result, a fire weather watch is in effect beginning 11 AM Wednesday through 7 PM Wednesday. As this event gets closer, conditions are looking to solidify in needing to upgrade to a warning at least for portions of the area Wednesday. Friday through the weekend looks to quiet down with temperatures slightly cooler and winds much calmer as flow aloft turns more zonal as the wave train departs to the east.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

LLWS is still expected at all terminals by midnight before improving by 15-16Z as SW winds ramp up. Sustained winds are likely to reach 30+ knots at LBB and PVW by the afternoon with frequent gusts over 40 knots leading to blowing dust. Confidence is low in visbys reaching IFR, but low VFR and MVFR seem more reasonable especially as the afternoon wears on.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical fire weather is likely on Tuesday for all but the far southern Rolling Plains due to southwest winds of 25 to 40 mph combining with high temps of 15 to 25 degrees above normal and low RHs in the teens. Elevated fire weather is likely for the far southern Rolling Plains where fuels are less receptive to fire spread. The most volatile wildfire conditions look to target the far southwest and south-central TX Panhandle this afternoon as this area features the highest ERCs and strongest wind potential marked by frequent gusts of 55 to 65 mph. This area also aligns with the regional wildfire composite pattern as being bound between a low- level thermal ridge to the east and a mid-level wind maximum nearby. Critical fire weather conditions will subside Tuesday evening as westerly winds slowly decline. RH recoveries will be moderate (40s to 50s) overnight ahead of another critical fire weather threat on Wednesday, although 20-foot SW winds should be mostly in the 20-30 mph range for Wednesday afternoon with minimum RHs falling into the lower teens area wide.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>037- 039>042.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>024- 027>029-033>035.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ021>036-039>041.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ025-026- 030>032-036-037-039>042.