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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Bone dry and very warm conditions Saturday will lead to an elevated fire danger across the Caprock and southern Rolling Plains.

- A High Wind event is expected area-wide Sunday, along with a critical fire danger and blowing dust.

- Cold temperatures are expected Monday morning, with a gradual warm-up throughout next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a belt of broad, northwesterly flow persists over W TX, as a compact shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes region and a subtropical ridge remains centered to the west of Baja CA. Orographically-induced cirrus banding originating from the central Rocky Mountains will continue to advect over portions of the CWA throughout the next 24-hours, and the CWA will otherwise be bereft of moisture, especially Saturday. Cloud-layer flow will begin backing westward Saturday in response to the onset of geopotential height falls ahead of an amplifying shortwave trough digging southeastward over the Rocky Mountains, with an expectation for a bone dry airmass to evolve area-wide Saturday afternoon.

At the surface, a lee cyclone was located near SPS, with a trough branching southwestward into JTN and LUV. A synoptic cold front stemmed northwestward from the surface low into the TX PH, and will continue to sag southward through the afternoon. Winds were slightly breezy due to the weak, isallobaric response generated by the presence of the surface low; and winds were raised a few kt to match current observations. The cold front is forecast to stall and decay into a surface trough overnight, with winds will becoming light and variable tonight as a weak surface high near 1010 mb settles into the region. The combination of the clear sky and light winds will yield cooler temperatures Saturday morning.

The surface trough draped across the CWA following the frontolysis will transition into a dryline Saturday as large-scale, geostrophic deformation increases aloft ahead of the amplifying shortwave trough emerging over the Rocky Mountains. A sharp, well-defined dryline is expected by mid-afternoon, with the dryline stalling near the 100th meridian. The zephyr will return across the majority of the CWA, and dry-bulbing will be particularly intense as boundary-layer mixing soars to near 400 mb. While cirrostratus will gradually increase in coverage by the latter half of the day, the combination of 850 mb temperatures rising to near 25 deg C, the extremely deep mixing yielding T/Td spreads approaching 75 degrees, and the westerly breeze, will yield record high temperatures at LBB and near-record highs at CDS Saturday. Highs were nudged upward from the NBM, and dewpoints were also lowered, which will yield RH minima at or even below 5-percent. While winds will be marginal, an elevated fire weather danger will materialize across the Caprock and into the southern Rolling Plains, as fuel loading continues to increase across the entire CWA. Winds will begin to back towards the southwest heading into Saturday evening as leeward pressure falls continue to steepen ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough. A High Wind event is expected Sunday. Details below.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An active start to the extended forecast package with cooler, drier, and windy conditions, before quieter weather returns to start the work week. By Sunday we will see the deepening H5 trough dig through the Central Plains region, with the core of the +90kt jet streak translating into the northern Texas Panhandle by late Sunday afternoon. As this system begins to depart to the east, a strong cold front will five southward into the region. Most guidance has become more in tune with FROPA timing, arriving by the mid- morning/early afternoon hours Sunday. However, given the magnitude of this front there is a bit higher confidence in an earlier FROPA arrival, as this tends to be the case with fronts like this. Out ahead of the system, a strengthening surface low will lift into the Upper Midwest, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. A corridor of stronger winds at the H7 and H8 level will overspread much of the Southern Plains as a result. The core of higher wind speeds does look to set up farther to our east across the OKC metro, nonetheless with forecast soundings depicting a well mixed boundary layer, we can expect stronger speeds to mix down to the surface during the afternoon. All of this, combined with guidance indicating 3 hour MSLP changes around 11 to 15 mb behind the FROPA suggest a windy day across the Caprock regions Sunday. LREF and NBM probabilities indicate about a 60% to 90% chance of High Wind Criteria being met, with higher probabilities across areas off the Caprock where we expect higher speeds to occur. Given these probabilities and the synoptic set up, we opted to issue a High Wind Watch which is in effect Sunday morning through Sunday evening for wind speeds of 30 to 50 MPH, gusting up to 60 MPH.

With the anticipation of a faster progressing front, NBM temperatures seemed a bit too high considering the analysis, so opted for cooler NBM 10th percentile for highs. As always, a gradient in temperatures is expected with cooler temperatures in the 60s to low 70s across our northern zones, while areas south of the front will see warmer highs in the mid to upper 70s. Despite the "cooler" temperatures, a drier airmass being transported into the region with the front combined with high wind speeds will result in critical fire danger across much of the area. Wind driven RFTIs are on the order of 4 to 5 while minimum RH values dip into the single digits by the late afternoon, with RH driven RFTIs not as high but still on the order of 2 to 3. Lack of moisture in the recent days, with ERCs around 80 to 90%, combined with the windy and dry day expected, the threat for wildfires will increase. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire FA Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

The surface high will surge southward overnight Sunday into Monday morning, relaxing the gradient across the FA as winds begin to veer more southerly. Monday will remain cool, with highs in the 50s expected as the cooler airmass struggles to mix out. However, increased thickness and heights will return Tuesday as an 596 dam upper level high and associated ridge amplifies over the southwestern CONUS. Thus leading to the return of warm temperatures and dry conditions through much of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR next 24 hours. Northerly winds will continue to transition towards the northeast throughout the rest of the afternoon, with winds diminishing and becoming easterly by dusk.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

This afternoon through Saturday:

Northerly winds as of this writing will continue to veer northeastward throughout the rest of the afternoon, and will become east by sunset, as a surface low and wind shift boundary move southward across W TX. A weakening cold front will then sag southward and stall across the Caprock and Rolling Plains tonight, with winds becoming light and variable. RH will recovery will range from near 35 percent along the NM state line, to near 45 percent along the I-27 corridor, and to above 60 percent along the 100th meridian. The aforementioned wind shift boundary will transition into a dryline Saturday, which will move east into the Rolling Plains by the afternoon. Winds will transition to the west on the Caprock and west-southwest in the Rolling Plains. Record high temperatures are expected Saturday, and combined with relative humidity as low as 5 percent and mixing heights soaring to the altitude of where commercial aircraft fly, an elevated fire danger will evolve across the Caprock and the southern Rolling Plains on Saturday afternoon. Fuel loading continues to rapidly increase.

Sunday:

Critical fire danger is expected on Sunday, as strong post frontal northerly wind speeds increase throughout the day. The tightening pressure gradient, with guidance suggesting 3 hour MSLP changes around 11 to 15 mb suggest wind speeds around 30 to 50 MPH, with gusts to 60 MPH. Despite the "cooler" temperatures, a drier airmass being transported into the region with the front combined with high wind speeds will result in critical fire danger across much of the area. Wind driven RFTIs are on the order of 4 to 5 while minimum RH values dip into the single digits by the late afternoon, with RH driven RFTIs not as high but still on the order of 2 to 3. Lack of moisture in the recent days, with ERCs around 80 to 90%, combined with the windy and dry day expected, the threat for wildfires will increase. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire FA Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.