textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Rain chances this afternoon for the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains.

- Dry conditions prevail for the rest of the forecast.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A closed off upper level low has dropped into northern Mexico late Saturday morning and will continue to track to the east through the rest of today into tonight. A broad area of weak ascent has also spread over the area today resulting in very light rain showers. So far, very little has reached the ground across the South Plains with measurable rainfall farther to the south over the Permian Basin. Some areas may see a few hundredths of an inch up to couple tenths of an inch with this activity this afternoon. Additionally, temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages this afternoon due to the increasing cloud cover advecting northward. Light precipitation will shut off this evening as subsidence swings into the area from the west. Guidance indicates potential fog on the caprock early Sunday morning although the degree of fog is highly uncertain. The upper low will continue to track east on Sunday moving as far south as the city of Chihuahua. Areas across the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains on Sunday may stay cool with cloud cover expected to continue.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The mid and upper level pattern will become highly amplified next week with an upper ridge over the Rockies and deep troughing over the west coast and eastern US. A number of short wave perturbations will rotate around the larger trough in the eastern US next week. These short waves will have little affect on the weather locally with the colder air remaining to the east of the area. Model guidance currently shows little chance of a freeze for the central South Plains through late next week. In fact, the AIGEFS shows only a 6% probability of a freeze for Lubbock before Nov 23 which is the record date for latest first freeze.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR and light winds will continue. Fog is possible overnight, however should remain west of KPVW and KLBB terminals.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.