textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Winds will decrease this evening with a relatively chilly overnight period expected.

- Cooler temperatures and quiet weather expected through Monday.

- Windy and elevated to critical fire danger possible mid-next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

An upper shortwave trough is making its way from Utah into Colorado as of 11 AM. Winds behind its associated Pacific front are progressing as planned with winds increasing to 20-30 mph across western New Mexico. Winds ahead of the front will gradually increase to around 15-20 mph out of the south by early afternoon before shifting westward and increasing to 25-35 mph on the Caprock by mid afternoon. The westerly winds will bring with it lower dewpoints and will drop minimum relative humidity to the low to mid teens on the Caprock leading to critical fire weather conditions. As such a Red Flag Warning remains in effect on the Caprock. The Rolling Plains will be mostly spared from today's winds and fire danger as the front will not make it that far eastward until after sunset. By this time mixing will be at a minimum with wind speeds only topping out around 10-15 mph.

The Pacific cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures by Saturday morning with lows only a couple degrees cooler than what was observed this morning. A secondary front will then begin moving through our northern zones by sunrise Saturday and be through the FA well before noon. This will bring another bought of breezy winds, this time area wide, and will further cool temps with highs on Saturday staying in the 50s area wide. Northerly winds will begin to decrease gradually through the late afternoon to around 10 mph by sunset. Despite breezy winds earlier in the day, the fire weather threat will remain low due to cooler temperatures helping keep minimum relative humidity above 15 percent with only briefly elevated conditions expected.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

We will have a cooler and quiet start to the long term forecast before the return of warmer temperatures and possible fire weather by mid-week. Upper ridging is expected to build over western CONUS Sunday shifting flow aloft from mostly zonal to northwesterly. A warming trend is expected through the first half of next week. Slight height increases from the building ridge and southerly surface flow will warm temperatures up to the 60s Sunday and Monday before jumping into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Windy conditions look to return Tuesday due to the tightening of a lee surface trough bringing potential for elevated to critical fire danger. The upper ridging is expected to flatten mid-week as an upper shortwave translates across northern CONUS. We will see a slight cool down to end the week as the upper shortwave will pull a cold front through the region Thursday. Although, temperatures will "cool", they will remain above seasonal normal with highs in the 70s. Sadly, there is no precipitation in sight for the long term forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Winds will decrease after sunset and gradually turn more northwesterly overnight, then become breezy out of the north behind a front on Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7 PM this evening for areas on the Caprock. 20 foot winds will become more westerly by mid afternoon and increase to 25-30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph as afternoon relative humidity drops to as low as 13 percent. Overall fire weather concerns remain low Saturday. 20 foot winds will be out of the north around 15-20 mph from sunrise through mid afternoon before dropping to around 10 mph by sunset Saturday. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and will help to keep minimum relative humidity around 15 percent or higher. Fuels remain fairly dry with ERCs averaging in the 60-70th percentile.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>030-033>036-039>042.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028- 033>035-039>041.