textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Record breaking heat is possible Wednesday, before a brief cool down arrives Thursday.

- Hot temperatures return through the weekend, with record breaking heat once again possible Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered storms possible Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Unseasonably hot conditions will be the main story across the region on Wednesday as the center of the 597 dam upper level high remains anchored over the South Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s across the Caprock and lower 100s off the Caprock.Daily record temperatures at climate sites Lubbock and Childress will once again be threatened. However, hi-resolution guidance has started hinting at multiple outflow boundaries from overnight convection and ongoing thunderstorms outside of the area tracking into the FA by mid to late morning. While these boundaries will serve as convergence centers for afternoon convective initiation, they could also throw a wrench into the high temperature forecast Wednesday, allowing highs to remain slightly cooler than what NWP guidance suggest with surface flow becoming northerly rather than the expected southerly main surface flow. Even if these boundaries alter peak heating slightly, it will still be quite hot across the region, nearly 10 degrees above normal.

Latter portions of the afternoon into wednesday evening bring returning storm chances as surface heating and lingering outflow boundary interactions attempt to overcome capping beneath the upper ridge. Given the complexity of the surface flow, it remains difficult to differentiate what is the true cold front versus advancing convective outflows. Model guidance suggests outflow boundaries will track through during the afternoon hours, serving as initiation points for thunderstorm development, with the true cold front arriving later during the evening and overnight period. Forecast soundings from across the area depict steep lapse rates along with inverted-v profiles, suggesting a dry-sub cloud layer, with DCAPE values around 1000-1200 J/kg. Therefore any storm that develops will have a threat of producing strong downburst winds. Precipitation will linger overnight into early Thursday, though coverage remains uncertain and dependent on boundary placement, FROPA, along with the LLJ that may allow storms to grow upscale.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

By Thursday morning, the flattened upper level ridge is expected to split into two centers of high pressure as an upper trough translates into the NECONUS, while an additional trough begins to dive into the PacNW. Between these features, weak monsoonal moisture wrapping around the eastern periphery of the southwestern high, in addition to weaknesses within the ridge, will keep chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Friday morning. Additionally, a decrease in geopotential heights with the FA sandwiched between the two areas of high pressure will help keep afternoon highs on Thursday on the cooler side in the 90s. Highs slightly warm Friday into the mid 90s to lower triple digits as we begin to see the ridge axis shift back east, closer to the region.

As the trough to our northwest translates east into the Intermountain West from the PacNW through the weekend, the upper high over the Desert Southwest will be kicked back over the region. In response, surface flow will turn southwesterly in response to an eastward moving lee surface low tracking east into the TX/OK Panhandle out ahead of the system. bringing breezy southwest winds and aiding in strong warm air advection into the region. Especially considering at the H7 level an area of high pressure will be parked just to our east with west-southwest flow also aiding in the uptick of thickness values across the region. With the center of the upper high and ridge axis positioned over the area, it will aid in a hot day Saturday, with record breaking heat possible at both Lubbock and Childress, while a Heat Advisory may be needed off the Caprock with highs currently forecast around 100 to 104 degrees. Widespread precipitation is not expected, though any weaknesses within the upper high tracking through an area of low to mid level moisture in place may generate a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The ridge begins departing east on Sunday, which will keep highs from climbing further, though still hot in the lower to upper 90s which is still nearly 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Additionally, flow aloft will begin to turn more southwesterly Sunday, aiding in moisture transport around the H7 to H3 layer. bringing a slightly better chance for precipitation Sunday, though confidence in this remains low.

Turning to next week, ensembles and deterministic guidance as still hinting at a cooler and wetter period as na upper trough deepens and moves into the High Plains from the Intermountain West. However, this will depend entirely on how far south the associated cold front can surge into the area. Guidance has been wish-washy over the last few runs, with the GEFS still trending cooler than normal but coming in warmer than previous runs. Given the ongoing model spread, the plan for now is to maintain NBM temperatures and PoPs until frontal timing and coverage becomes clearer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.