textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of the Caprock Tuesday afternoon.

- A cold front will stall across the Rolling Plains late Tuesday morning, with cooler temperatures to follow Wednesday and Thursday.

- A light freeze/frost will be possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday morning) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, a positively-tilted, shortwave trough, with a closed low embedded within, was moving onshore CA and trailing a weak, shortwave ridge shifting eastward into the southern Great Plains. Farther north, a large-scale trough was pivoting towards the Laurentian Continental Divide, which has resulted in the dampening of amplitude of the shortwave ridge moving towards W TX. A thick cirrus shield continues to advect over the region, and will persist throughout the next 24 hours as the upstream trough pivots into the Desert Southwest and phases with the northern-stream troughing. At the surface, the synoptic cold front and triple point were located along the HWY-400 corridor in western KS, with the dryline branching southward into the Rolling Plains per recent METAR and WTM data. The dryline will translate slightly westward overnight while remaining stalled in the Rolling Plains, with the west-southwesterly breeze expected to veer westward during the predawn hours Tuesday.

The synoptic cold front is forecast to move into the Rolling Plains by the late morning hours, with winds shifting towards the northeast in its wake while accompanied by a low stratus deck. The cold front will become quasi-stationary in a northwest-to-southeast-oriented manner, stalling as far west as Tulia and southeastward towards Aspermont. On the Caprock, west-southwesterly winds will become breezy, with speeds between 20-30 mph, as boundary-layer heights once again ascend into the mid-levels and result in efficient downward momentum transport of the faster flow aloft (e.g., 500 mb and 700 mb flow near 75 kt and 35 kt, respectively). Despite the stronger west-southwesterly winds, temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than Monday owing to the geopotential height falls ahead of the incoming trough. While RH reductions will bottom out between 17-22 percent on the Caprock, the stronger winds will compensate for the marginal RH values. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are once again expected across portions of the Caprock. A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect between 2 PM and 8 PM CDT Tuesday. The quasi-stationary front is forecast to slosh slightly westward overnight into Wednesday, potentially as far west as the entire I-27 corridor. A shallow, low-level stratus deck will remain intact to the east of the front due to the upslope fetch amidst temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to middle 50s across the northern-to-southern zones, respectively.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Phasing of the once-bifurcated flow over the Lower 48 will have completed by Wednesday morning, with a well-defined corridor of subgeostrophic flow through its inflection point as it progresses eastward into the Great Plains. The CWA will be positioned within the left-entrance region to the belt of amplified, southwesterly flow branching from the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and into the Upper Midwest. The resultant dry-slotting will erode the low- and high-level cloud decks, with similar mixing heights forecast to the west of the quasi-stationary front, which will be very weak or will have transitioned into a pre-frontal surface trough. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for a small portion of the Caprock Wednesday afternoon. Locales along and east of the stalled front/boundary will have much shallower mixing from the sharp warm nose within the 850-775 mb layer, thereby resulting in cooler high temperatures compared to areas farther west.

A stronger cold front will move through the region Wednesday night as the base of the open trough emerges over W TX. Sprinkles and/or light rain showers will be possible across the far southwestern TX PH Wednesday night as the lower theta surface saturate beneath intense ascent, but QPF will be little-to-none. Temperatures will fall into the middle 30s across the far southwestern TX PH Thursday morning, with temperatures in the lower-middle 40s elsewhere across the CWA. Therefore, a light freeze will be possible for the former locales. As the airmass nears its saturation point, the frost may develop on vegetation Thursday morning, which would be a rare occurrence, especially in May. Highs will moderate into the middle 70s Thursday as the polar airmass will be quick to modify beneath the high SZA, with hotter temperatures returning Friday and into this weekend while remaining dry area-wide.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Winds will stay breezy during the early morning hours on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly move into the region from the northeast shifting winds to the north at KCDS later this morning. However, this front is expected to stall out before reaching KLBB and KPVW. MVFR CIGS may fill in behind the front at KCDS later this morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.