textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Heat Advisory for all areas on Wednesday from 1 PM to 9 PM.

- Cooling Thursday and Friday following a cold front, with some storm chances.

- Heat returns this weekend ahead of storm chances early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

After near-normal highs on Tuesday, the heat ratchets up another 10 to 15 degrees on Wednesday as westerly winds from 850-700 mb advect a plume of even hotter air our way. This process will create a more definitive dryline by midday that is forecast to stall in the Rolling Plains; however, with warming temperatures aloft and broad subsidence under anticyclonic NW flow, the potential for storms is near zero even as temperatures soar to 105 and higher. The latest forecast has a few locales in Garza County reaching 110-112 degrees, but this is not widespread enough to warrant an Excessive Heat Warning. The dryline retreats onto the Caprock Wednesday evening ahead of mild and muggy lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thursday presents a challenge for high temperatures as a cold front will be pushing south of I-40 in the TX Panhandle not long after daybreak. By noon, the front is forecast to have departed the South Plains on the heels of a surface low. Off the Caprock meanwhile, the front should slow as it encounters deeper moisture and steady southerly breezes northeast of the aforementioned low. This should result in a sharp gradient in high temperatures, perhaps near 110 in the southern Rolling Plains with upper 80s in the far SW Texas Panhandle. The NBM is on the toastier side for many areas, which does tend to fit the bill for cold fronts this time of year, so we'll ignore the cooler MOS highs at this time. Regardless of the temperatures, northeast winds behind the front will be clocking in at the mid-to-upper 20 mph range, with even the potential for 30-35 mph sustained winds in our far NW zones under a 35-knot LLJ and beefy 3-hr pressure rises of 6-9 mb. Storm chances with the front are very unlikely under considerable capping, but by late afternoon and evening this could change in the Rolling Plains as a southeasterly LLJ of 25-30 knots boosts isentropic ascent in the post-frontal environment. Despite anemic wind shear, sizable non- surface-based CAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg would easily support some severe potential should storms develop.

Cool easterly low-level flow on Friday will spread muggier air onto the Caprock under rising heights tied to an upper high setting up over the Permian Basin. Global guidance looks overdone with QPF in this pattern given a ridge axis atop the area and cool, stable low levels, so NBM's PoPs on Friday may need a downward revision in later forecasts. This pattern generally favors storms in the upslope regime of New Mexico, yet with only 5-10 knots of westerly mid-level flow, this is not a good recipe for convection to reach our area. The upper high and ridge scoot east for the weekend as the flow turns more zonal and brings hotter temperatures back into the picture. A weak cold front either late Sunday or Monday may park nearby and bring us our next chance for storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Expect southerly speeds around 10-15G20KTs to continue through the overnight period, before veering out of the west-southwest by daybreak with speeds picking up to about 15-18G28KTs through the afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.