textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across the Caprock, some storms may become severe.

- Warmer Friday with another chance for scattered thunderstorms, some storms may become severe.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this weekend into next week, with temperatures remaining near average for this time of year.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon currently displays long wave troughing encompassing much of the western CONUS as a shortwave/perturbation ripples through the main flow just south and west of the area. Given latest trends and the fact that thick stratus continues to keep much of the areas along and east of the I-27 corridor socked in with low-clouds this afternoon. Meanwhile west of the interstate, we are beginning to see the clearing of low-stratus which is aiding in a quick warm-up in temperatures across this area. With highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across areas with sunny skies, while elsewhere highs remain stuck in the upper 50s to low 60s. As a result, it is likely that most areas off the Caprock will see a decrease in precipitation chances due to the overworked environment, with lingering precipitation ongoing, and lack of instability expected as cloud cover keeps much of this area capped. However, further west models are still holding on to an organized convective system congealing linearly by the late evening, developing near the TX/NM border. Given recent clearing, it is likely convective T's will be reached across the aforementioned area and with MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes around 30 knots, it is possible storms that are able to develop in this environment could become marginally severe. Main threats would be quarter sized hail and strong winds up to 70 mph possible. Additionally, moisture remain rich across much of the area with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s across both Caprock regions. Given this and forecasted PWATs around an inch, in addition to long skinny CAPE profiles, it is possible heavy downpours could occur with stronger storm cores which may lead to a localized flooding threat across the area. Although not as likely, some models like the RRFS and FV3 keep this line of storms moving into the Rolling Plains through the late evening. However, this forecaster is not too keen on this scenario given latest environmental trends. However, IF storms are able to develop within the cooler airmass there will still be a threat for elevated hailers with pea to nickel size hail serving as the main threat.

Precipitation should clear from after midnight with low stratus filling in across much of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle into portions of the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Expect lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s across much of the region and light southerly winds prevail. By Friday mid-morning, low stratus should begin to clear the region with highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s as we see increased heights and thickness values. A strengthening surface low over eastern New Mexico, combined with a stronger perturbation translating through the southwest flow aloft, will support the potential for thunderstorms development near the TX/NM state line by Friday afternoon. Rich low- level moisture with dew points progged in the 50s and 60s, east of a sharpening dryline across the area, combined with convective Ts being maintained by early afternoon will likely result in scattered thunderstorm development along the line of low-level convergence. Initial threats with storms will be the potential for quarter sized hail, heavy rainfall, and strong winds up to 60 mph. Most CAMs have storms becoming organized into a linear mode as they progress eastward through Friday evening. If this happens, this will likely switch the severe threat to more of a wind threat where we could potentially see severe wind gusts up to 70 mph.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

By Saturday, flow aloft will begin to weaken as mean mid/upper level troughing shifts eastward and a weak ridge attempts to build over the desert SW. Although models are in poor agreement regarding the day-to-day specifics of the upper level flow over our area, consensus does still favor plenty moisture remaining in place. This combined with continuing weak southeasterly surface flow is likely to support at least a few isolated showers and storms over West TX on both Saturday and Sunday. There could be a few weak disturbances cresting the ridge aloft which may increase convective coverage especially on Saturday into Saturday night, but the probability of any type of organized severe convection appears low at this time given the weak flow aloft. On Monday, the weak upper ridge to our west will quickly flatten as a series of shortwave troughs moves over the western CONUS. Flow aloft over our area will consequently strengthen and turn more southwesterly through the early week period, with total column moisture progged to remain relatively robust as well. This setup will favor a continuation of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms especially as weak surface upslope flow continues as well. Model consensus generally favors Tuesday and Tuesday night as the period with the most widespread precipitation coinciding with a shortwave trough axis moving overhead, with storm chances shifting eastward through the rest of the week. This pattern will also keep temperatures near seasonal averages throughout the extended with highs generally in the 80s each day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

LIFR to IFR CIGs will continue at KLBB through the early afternoon before we see improvements back to MVFR to potential VFR CIGs by late afternoon. Models have diverged quite a bit since the 12Z TAF cycle, leading to a very uncertain precipitation forecast for this evening. By the looks of it, confidence is highest at KLBB and KPVW for -TSRA by the early evening (~00z to 04z) which would potentially bring the hazards for gusty winds up to 50 knots and quarter sized hail. Although confidence is rather low in that for any mention on the TAF. Meanwhile at KCDS, a drier scenario looks to be panning out, although confidence in PoPs remains low, confidence is increasing for IFR to MVFR CIGs developing at the terminal just after midnight and lasting through daybreak.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.