textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Warm and dry conditions continue through the rest of the week into the weekend, with record breaking heat possible.

- Elevated to potentially near critical fire weather concerns return Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler and wetter conditions may return as early as Monday through mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Not much to report in the short term period with the main message of very warm temperatures and dry conditions continuing Friday. This afternoon, temperatures will be slightly cooler thanks to the overnight FROPA that passed through the region resulting in winds prevailing out of the northeast through much of the day. By the evening, winds will begin to veer out of the south as the surface high moves into the Central Texas region and lee troughing develops in SE CO. Clear skies and light wind speeds will help keep overnight lows "cooler" with temperatures in the upper 30s and mid 40s. To end the work week, temperatures will soar once again as the ridge axis shifts east and we see geopotential heights increase. This uptick in heights and thickness values, combined with the return of southwest surface flow, along with clear skies will allow for highs to climb back into the upper 70s and 80s to close out the week. These highs will fight to break the current record at KLBB, with the forecasted high of 80 degrees rivaling the record of 81 degrees set back in 2006 and 1932. Although still incredibly warm for February standards, the record high at KCDS of 93 degrees will not be threatened, with highs Friday across this area are expected to peak in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the region to start the extended period, as an upper level ridge amplifies over western CONUS with its associated high centered over Baja Mexico. Meanwhile off to our east, an shortwave trough will continue to glide eastward through the Gulf Coast states. By the start of early next week, flow will begin to turn more zonal, then out of the southwest, in response to the flattening of the upper level ridge with an approaching cutoff low moving onshore the California coastline. Bringing chances for precipitation back to the forecast area as early as next Monday through mid-week.

Before we get the talk about precipitation chances and cooler temperatures, we first need to get through the warm and dry weekend ahead. Upper ridging will continue to build eastward Saturday and Sunday across the Caprock regions, resulting in an uptick of heights and thickness values. With geopotential heights above climatological normals for this time of year, combined with southwest surface flow being influenced by lee troughing across the Rockies we can expect temperatures to become very warm this weekend. In fact, 850 mb temperatures ranging from 20C to 25C, suggests highs climbing into the 80s to near 90 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, with Saturday looking to be the warmest of the two. Record breaking heat will be possible as well, although current forecasted highs are still a few degrees below record breaking. A few caveats reside with highs this weekend, as a weak backdoor-ish front tries to move into northern counties on Saturday, then a stronger secondary front works to move southward Sunday evening with the shortwave scooting through the Great Lakes region. Latest guidance is a bit messy in regards with timing at this time, although all guidance suggest these fronts either not making its way into the region Saturday and Sunday until after peak heating occurs. Monday through next week, the ridge will dismantle, while scooting eastward as the cutoff low moves through the Four Corners region into the Panhandle region. As a result, geopotential heights will decrease and highs will trend near seasonal normal as a result of this and potential precipitation and cloud cover.

As far as precipitation goes, ensembles and deterministic guidance have both trended drier compared to recent runs, as a result of the more northern tracks being provided by global NWP guidance. Despite this, chances remain non-zero and there is still hope that at least portions of the FA will see some beneficial rainfall from this system, so long as the track either remains neutral or trends more south like it did before. There looks to be two chances for rainfall, the first beginning Saturday evening as a perturbation within the flow ahead of the main system ripples through. Unfortunately, Sunday's precipitation may be confined to our northeastern counties, where the associated lift and beneficial moisture provided with the system will reside. An additional chance for rainfall then returns early next week through mid-week as the cutoff low moves into the Southern Plains. As mentioned earlier, NBM PoPs have decreased in response to the drier solutions being outputted by the 12Z ensembles guidance given the northern tracks provided by the ECMWF and GFS. With the GFS being the more southern solution of the two moving the closed low through the northern Texas Panhandle overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Ultimately, precipitation chances will depends on where the overall synoptic forcing sets up with the system and how much moisture return we will see. By the looks of it, the main source of lift will remain to our north, but perturbations moving through the main flow may provide just enough upscale lift for rain showers next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy westerly winds will prevail through the afternoon before weakening this evening and veering to the southeast overnight. Towards the end of this TAF period, south to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up through the afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.