textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Very strong north winds will persist through the early morning hours on Saturday with decreasing winds in the afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with a light freeze likely over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains on Sunday morning.

- A return to well above seasonal average temperatures will return beginning on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A strong cold front will bring a drastic change in the weather over the next few days. This cold front was currently moving through the region bringing sustained surface winds in excess of 30kt. There exists a brief chance of thunder over the Rolling Plains close to 06Z as the front encounters a retreating dryline. Surface dew points were already surging into the mid to upper 60s in the southern Rolling Plains as winds back to the southeast. The latest CAM guidance is mixed on how far west this convection will extend from northwest Texas. Nonetheless, any convection is expected to be short lived in the FA as it quickly moves southward. Isolated lightning has been observed with very weak returns over portions of the Rolling Plains but the deeper moisture still remains to the south. The initial frontal passage will see the highest wind speeds for a few hours before settling around 20-25kt through much of Saturday morning. Modest pressure rises will continue through the morning before starting to relax in the afternoon hours. A surface ridge around 1025-1030mb will settle across Oklahoma into North Texas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. At least a light freeze can be expected across portions of the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After a somewhat chilly start to Sunday morning, we will see winds return to the south as a surface lee trough develops. Winds will be on the low side of breezy. Winds will decrease by Sunday evening as an upper ridge begins to move over the FA. Models then show a weakness developing in the upper ridge Monday afternoon and put the FA on the tail end of convection that stretches as far south as the Rio Grande Valley. While some convection may be possible, coverage is expected to be isolated at best due to much of the FA being under week upper lift due to more influence from the ridge rather than the shortwave trough. Convection and the embedded shortwave trough will push to our east by early Tuesday with the upper ridge rebuilding over the region with relatively quiet conditions dominating Tuesday and Wednesday. The broad upper low across the Pacific Northwest will amplify late Wednesday into Thursday and will help to kick the upper ridge to the eastern CONUS. Lee surface troughing is progged to develop ahead of the upper low. Models disagree with the amount of amplification of the main upper low, the GFS being more aggressive than the ECMWF. The GFS also brings a fast moving negatively tilted embedded shortwave trough across the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains by late Thursday. This could bring a potential for both windy conditions and severe dryline convection. Confidence is currently low but warrants watching.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Breezy northerly winds around 15-20G30KTs will continue at all terminals through the morning, before calming throughout the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ021>023-027>029.