textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the potential for hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 65 mph possible this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon.

- Heat Advisory level heat possible Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Current radar imagery shows lingering showers clearing out across Rolling Plains and should be out in the next hour. Northeast to easterly surface flow due to surface troughing across the Central Plains will keep temperatures similar to yesterday with highs in the 80s. Broad upper troughing across central to eastern CONUS will amplify through the afternoon shifting upper flow overhead to the northwest. This will trigger a lee surface low across CO this afternoon. Winds late this afternoon and evening will shift to the southeast in response to the lee surface low as it shifts southeast toward northeastern NM. Up flow surface winds will bring chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly on the Caprock, around sunset. Models indicate scattered thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain in northeastern NM before expanding southeastward into our forecast area. Soundings indicate decent shear values up to 40 knots, therefore elevated thunderstorms can be expected. With inverted v soundings for areas on the Caprock this evening, could also expect virga showers and gusty winds up to 60-65 mph. These thunderstorms may produce some small hail with MUCAPE values up to 1200 J/kg. All storms are expected to die out around midnight. From there, the rest of the overnight period should be quiet with lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Tuesday will start out dry and mostly sunny. Winds will shift to the south early Tuesday and prevail through the day, warming highs into the 90s across the region. A dryline is expected to stall on the Caprock just inside the Texas state line Tuesday evening. Some models show isolated to scattered storms developing along the dryline after sunset. NBM came in with low PoPs, therefore slight chance PoPs were manually added to areas on the Caprock and the far southern Texas Panhandle where models indicate storms will develop.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a hot hot Wednesday. The aforementioned upper trough over eastern CONUS will begin to deamplify while a secondary trough develops to the southeast of the region. To the west, slight ridging will build over NM. This will keep northwest flow aloft through Wednesday. Thickness increases through the day due to the upper ridging and breezy southwest to southerly surface flow through the day will heat temperatures up to the triple digits with much of the region most likely reach Heat Advisory temperatures. Can expect a Heat Advisory issued in the near future. Luckily, these hot temperatures do not last past Wednesday. An upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes region will push a cold front southward through the forecast area Thursday afternoon resulting in a wide range of highs for the day Thursday. Highs across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle will only reach upper 80s while across the southern Rolling Plains, high temperatures are expected to reach just below heat advisory level. The cold front will also bring rain chances across much of the region Thursday evening through Friday. Rain chances and mostly cloudy skies will keep cooler temperatures through Friday. However, we will see 90 to triple digit high temperatures return this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MVFR CIGs at PVW and LBB are expected to give way to VFR by 19-20Z. VFR conditions will then prevail through the rest of the TAF cycle. There is a low chance for -TSRA at LBB and PVW from 00Z to 06Z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.