textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Record-breaking heat will continue through the weekend with critical fire danger expected across the region Saturday through Sunday.

- A brief cooldown is expected on Monday, but unseasonably hot weather will return Tuesday through most of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

After another day of record-breaking high temperatures Friday, exceptionally hot weather by March standards will continue across the region over the weekend as the anomalously strong upper level ridge which has persisted over the Desert SW will continue to slowly edge eastward. The overnight period will be quite mild yet again with temperatures only falling into the 50s by Saturday morning over most of the region, which will set the stage for another hot day. Temperatures Saturday are expected to peak a couple of degrees higher than observed on Friday, with highs in the upper 90s over most of the Caprock and low 100s likely east of the escarpment. The record high for the date at Lubbock (93 set in 1997) and at Childress (98 set in 1904/1907) are both likely to be broken. In addition to the heat, south to southwest winds will also gradually strengthen throughout the day as a surface trough deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Wind speeds will be relatively modest by West TX standards, but given the exceptionally warm and dry airmass, this will be enough to result in critical fire danger over the entire area, and the Fire Weather Watch has been converted to a Red Flag Warning for Saturday afternoon. See the Fire Weather section below for additional details.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

By Sunday, the above-mentioned upper level ridge will deamplify and flatten in response to a series of shortwave disturbances moving through the Intermountain West. Despite this evolution, Sunday will still be quite hot across West TX with H5 heights still progged to be in the 585dam range resulting in forecast highs again in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front will be making steady southward progress through KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle through the day, and is currently expected to pass through the forecast area sometime on Sunday afternoon. Winds on Sunday will be stronger than on Saturday, initially out of the west as a pre-frontal surface trough tracks through the region, then increasing out of the northeast behind the front. Critical fire weather conditions are likely during most of the day, both ahead of and behind the front given the stronger winds and what is expected to only be a very slow increase in near-surface moisture behind the front. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued area-wide from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

A welcome cooldown will arrive Monday with highs currently expected to peak in the 70s to near 80 on Monday afternoon. However, this will be brief as record-challenging heat will once again return to the region Tuesday and beyond as upper level ridging rebuilds over most of the southwestern CONUS. By late next week, model consensus indicates a pattern change may finally take place which should bring an end to our March heat wave, although there are still no meaningful signals for any precipitation through the end of the month.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Continued VFR and hot. Check density altitude.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Very hot temperatures are expected Saturday which will result in minimum RH values near 5 percent over most of the region. In addition, winds are expected to be a bit stronger compared to the past few days, with sustained south-southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph likely during the afternoon hours on the Caprock and especially over the SW TX Panhandle. There is lower confidence in wind magnitude off the Caprock, with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph more likely. Still, the very low RH on its own will result in RFTI values around 1 area-wide, with pockets of RFTI values up to 4 possible where winds approach or exceed 15 mph. Given the extremely dry fuel states in place across the region, this is enough to justify an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning across the forecast area, which is in effect from noon until 8 PM Saturday.

The heat will continue on Sunday with minimum RH values again falling near 5 percent ahead of a cold front which will approach from the north on Sunday afternoon. Winds are currently expected to be stronger on Sunday compared to Saturday which will result in critical fire weather conditions both ahead of and behind the cold front. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire area from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for TXZ021>044.