textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Hotter temperatures ahead with daily Heat Advisories possible through this weekend, especially off the Caprock.

- Continued dry outside of some storm chances Friday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Subsidence is set to deepen through Wednesday as a tall dome of high pressure relocates from eastern Colorado to southwest Oklahoma. This will advect even warmer temps our way with 850 mb temps rising about 3 deg C. NBM looks too soft with high temps in this pattern, so its values were blended higher using the ADJMAV which favors another Heat Advisory on Wednesday for most areas off the Caprock.

Prospects for moist convection and precip in this pattern are almost nil; however, various CAMs suggest some pinhead showers by Wednesday afternoon as SSW winds back more easterly keeping dewpoints a few degrees higher than today. Despite this, the chance of any measurable precip is still too low given such sparse and high-based convection having to contend with deep subsidence and 40-60 degree dewpoint depressions in the boundary layer.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The extended pattern shows little relief from the heat as the high pressure dome wobbles anywhere from the southern High Plains into the Four Corners. If there is any consolation, the H5 high is not progged to reach 600 meters until late next week, so this should keep our heat wave in the low-to-mid 100s with excessive heat (110 or hotter) restricted to isolated occurrences. Still, this pattern of high heat, low relative humidity, and warmer overnight lows fits the bill for a flash drought event that may severely stress area crops. The only prospect for rainfall exists Friday evening and overnight when the center of the high will be farthest west from the area allowing a shortwave trough in northwest flow to impact the TX Panhandle, perhaps even farther south. What storms do form won't have much steering flow available, so locally heavy rain would be in the offing. Global guidance and ensembles suggest this lingering mid- level moisture with any remnant MCVs could yield another round of storms Saturday afternoon or evening, but the NBM is mostly dry aside from a sliver of PoPs in the far southwest TX Panhandle. Thereafter, the high rebuilds and elongates from the Four Corners to the Red River while holding between 595 and 598 dam. This keeps our highs in the low/mid 100s through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies persist through the period. Winds at KLBB/KPVW will generally be out of the south, while winds at KCDS back from westerly at the start of the period to southeasterly by mid-afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032- 037-038-043-044.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-043-044.