textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible over most of the region through late this evening, some of which may produce strong wind gusts.

- Storm chances continue each afternoon and evening through at least Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain above average through the weekend before a very modest cooldown next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Zonal flow aloft will persist through tonight as flat upper ridging remains centered to our south, with the large scale pattern still fairly similar to the past couple of days. Through the rest of the afternoon, a surface trough will deepen over the Caprock resulting in west to southwest low level flow, with temperatures set to reach the upper 90s and low 100s once again by early this evening. Forecast soundings depict a somewhat favorable environment for isolated storm development by late afternoon as convective temperatures are reached within a mostly uncapped atmosphere, but potential will be limited by a relative lack of deep layer moisture. Initial convective activity could develop just about anywhere across the forecast area, especially within the convergence zone of the surface trough near the I-27 corridor. Coverage of these late afternoon and early evening storms is expected to be relatively low due to what is progged to be a bit drier surface airmass courtesy of more robust mixing, but this will simultaneously result in high DCAPE values above 1200 J/kg which may result in wind gusts up to 70 mph beneath any stronger storm cores that do develop. Closer to sunset, a modest shortwave embedded within the zonal flow aloft will transit over the NM/CO high terrain, likely kicking off additional development to our west and north. It is uncertain if this activity will track into our region directly, but outflow collisions very well may result in additional storms later in the evening, mainly over the Caprock. Strong wind gusts will again be the primary hazard, with a lesser threat of large hail. Light shower activity will likely continue a bit past midnight, with an otherwise very mild overnight period expected.

The center of the upper level ridge will begin shifting eastward on Saturday which will result in a transition to southwest flow aloft over our area. Despite this change, storm chances will continue as a ribbon of mid/upper level Pacific moisture pivots overhead, with the surface pattern again favoring a generally uncapped atmosphere during the afternoon and evening hours as highs peak in the 100-105 degree range. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over a region centered near the I-27 corridor with relatively high cloud bases again supporting a threat for severe wind gusts on Saturday evening.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain remarkably consistent through most of next week as expansive upper ridging persists over the eastern CONUS downstream of longwave troughing centered over the west coast. Upper level flow will generally remain southwesterly which will be favorable for keeping a relatively substantial amount of Pacific moisture in place over West TX. Thunderstorm chances will therefore continue each afternoon and evening from Sunday through much of next week, with the highest chances over the Caprock and along the TX/NM state line. Organized severe weather looks unlikely in this pattern given weak shear and only moderate instability, but an isolated threat for severe winds will likely continue each day especially near the state line. Temperatures will initially remain a bit above normal through early week, but will fall closer to average during the midweek period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW beginning this evening and continue overnight. Confidence on these thunderstorms impacting the terminals is low at the moment, therefore have VCTS in TAF. Thunderstorms are not expected near KCDS. Can expect strong wind gusts from severe thunderstorms near terminals. Otherwise, breezy south to southwesterly winds will prevail through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.