textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Breezy and warm with fire weather concerns Thursday.

- Record highs possible Saturday before strong winds and fire concerns return for Sunday.

- Brief cooldown Monday, then warming with continued dry conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Northerly winds have finally eased this evening ahead of cool high pressure over western Kansas. This high will shift into the South Plains by sunrise and then set its sights on East Texas by evening. In its wake, lee troughing under northwest flow will become better defined from eastern Colorado to eastern New Mexico, allowing downslope winds to become quite breezy - although nowhere near as strong as in recent days. Still, the NBM winds needed some upward adjustment to better align with the breezier MOS numbers and an axis of stronger 850700 mb flow, yielding gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds boost confidence in patchy blowing dust across our north and northwest zones during the afternoon.

The mildest highs, in the mid 70s, should focus within this stronger downslope flow, while values around 70 extend from the South Plains into the southern Rolling Plains. Southwest breezes veer WNW Thursday night as a weak shortwave trough drags the lee trough across our region, resulting in milder lows in the 40s for most areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Friday opens with a surface trough exiting to our southeast ahead of a decaying backdoor front that delivers light northeast winds during the afternoon. This wind shift will have little impact on the continued warming trend as thicknesses keep climbing, allowing highs to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Aloft, northwest flow strengthens Saturday as a trough digs over the northern Rockies while spurring lee cyclogenesis in Colorado. Lee troughing into eastern New Mexico does not sharpen much during the day Saturday, so westerly winds are unlikely to reach breezy levels. These winds will advect a dome of very warm 850700 mb temperatures our way, opening the door to potential record-breaking highs at Lubbock and Childress (records are 86 and 92, respectively).

Sadly, the weekend does not end as quietly as it begins. Indications are mounting for a strong FROPA to race south across the region Sunday morning into the early afternoon. This front could bring 25 to 35 mph northerly winds with gusts of 45+ mph, and potentially more blowing dust.

Cool air lingers Monday as the upper pattern amplifies with anomalous ridging (590 dam) along the Pacific Coast while deep troughing engulfs the Mississippi River Valley to the Atlantic Coast. This pattern supports no precipitation for West Texas, which is nothing unusual for this time of year. Temperatures should quickly rebound toward midweek as breezier downslope winds return.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. Light winds overnight will increase out of the southwest by late morning and become gusty during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Milder temperatures return Thursday on breezy and dry southwest winds. Winds will be highest across the far southwest Texas Panhandle by midday, with sustained winds around 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. With widespread minimum RH values in the low to mid teens, critical fire weather is likely from the far southern Texas Panhandle into neighboring areas of the South Plains and Rolling Plains, with an elevated fire risk farther south.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 8 PM Thursday for northern areas, with a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement elsewhere. Southwest winds will decline to 15 mph or less after sunset.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.