textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon across the Caprock, where they will track eastward through the late evening.

- Warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is already detecting thunderstorm initiation across the southern extent of the Permian Basin, as the base of an upper level trough tracks through portions of the Rockies. Much of the large scale lift with this system will remain to our north this afternoon, translating into portions of the northern Texas Panhandle. However, further south, ripples within the flow aloft will track in from central New Mexico this afternoon serving as a focus point for thunderstorm development. Simultaneously, a surface low centered over central New Mexico will deepen and shift east towards to the TX/NM state line, sharpening a dryline across the area as it slowly mixes eastward. As of 18Z, this dryline was analyzed by WTM observations moving into Yoakum county. This boundary of low-level convergence will serve as the main focus point for convective initiation this afternoon. Despite most forecast soundings across the area noting a modest capping inversion early this afternoon, continued diurnal heating through the afternoon and ample moisture in place will work together to erode the cap as convective Ts become easily reachable with highs climbing into the mid 80s. Deep low-level moisture transport will continue to be aided by the upslope component of the winds, with dewpoints steady in the mid 50s across much of the Caprock while off the Caprock dewpoints climb into the 60s. With the combination of strong daytime heating and rich moisture in place will allow for an increasingly humid airmass to develop, maximizing instability, with MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg as projected by the NAm to 2400 J/kg as projected by the RAP. Additionally steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 to 9 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes up to 35 knots will support the potential for thunderstorms capable of golfball sized hail and strong winds up to 70 mph. Although the primary hazards will be large hail and strong winds, we cannot completely rule the potential for an isolated tornado or two, although the threat remains low. This threat would be localized, with the tornado risk greatest if any discrete storms develop along the dryline, where low- level convergence is strongest. Storms will track from west to east, growing upscale as they move off the Caprock and organizing into a more linear mode. Therefore the threat will then become more wind driven through the late evening with storms tracking out of the area around midnight. Thereafter a quiet night is expected with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees. The weak cold front is expected to move into portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle after midnight, before washing out as it enters the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Similar to today, low-level stratus will likely fill in across portions of the southern Rolling Plains and South Plains, clearing by mid-morning.

As for Saturday, a similar set up to today is looking to pan out with temperatures similar (although slightly cooler across our northern counties) in the upper 70s to mid 80s. An additional wave will pass just to our north while a surface low over central NM sharpens a dryline to our southwest. With similar return moisture with dewpoints progged in the 50s and 60s once again and with the expectation of cloud cover diminishing by late morning with allow for maximized diurnal heating during peak heating hours. Which will likely result in strong instability with MLCAPE values depicted by NAM forecast soundings up to 2000 J/kg along with steep lapse rates and bulk shear magnitudes around 35 knots. As a result, storms that develop Saturday will pose another risk for large hail and strong winds as they track eastward through the area. Unlike today, the dry- line looks to make little progression in mixing eastward, which will lead to area-wide coverage in storms across the Caprock and off the Caprock. Throughout the evening Saturday, similar to today, storms will grow upscale into a more organized line as they track off the Caprock where we will see the threat for stronger winds increase through the evening.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

By the second half of the weekend into early next week, a low- amplitude mid/upper level ridge axis is progged to build over NM/CO ahead of weak troughing over the CA coast. At the surface, flow is expected to remain generally southerly as very weak troughing persists in the lee of the NM high terrain, which will keep relatively robust low/mid level moisture in place across the region, although a diffuse dryline is still likely to develop somewhere over the Caprock each afternoon. This will result in at least isolated convective development on both Sunday and Monday, but coverage and intensity are expected to remain limited given slightly increased midlevel subsidence as well as a notable lack of shear courtesy of very weak flow aloft. Storm chances Sunday and Monday will also be highest near the TX/NM state line in closer proximity to the high terrain, with generally drier weather farther east. By late Monday night, the ridging aloft will break down entirely as large scale troughing over the Pacific coast begins shifting eastward. Models are in good agreement bringing a leading shortwave over the region sometime on Tuesday, with the trough potentially obtaining a slight negative tilt as it does so. While this will likely bring a period of more widespread showers and storms to the region, severe potential will depend on the timing of the trough, with a slower progression favoring better storm chances for a longer period Tuesday into Tuesday night compared to a faster progression. Thereafter, consensus indicates a cutoff low will likely develop somewhere over the western CONUS, with weak ridging ahead of it potentially bringing a relative break in storm chances during the middle to late week period along with warmer temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms across the central South Plains will continue to mostly affect KPVW for the next hour or so before moving east. Highly variable and gusty winds can be expected in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity. It remains uncertain if thunderstorm activity will reach the KCDS terminal within the next few hours. Low CIGS may again redevelop early Saturday morning with highest chances for MVFR at KLBB and KPVW with lesser chances at KCDS. Additional chances of thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday at roughly the same time as we observed today.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.