textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Continuing windy and dry conditions will result in critical fire danger today, Thursday, and Friday.

- Quiet and cooler weekend this weekend ahead of another warm and breezy work week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The synoptic pattern has remained relatively unchanged over the past 24 hours with a belt of very strong WSW flow aloft still in place over our region at the base of longwave mid/upper troughing over most of the continent. Winds will enter solidly breezy territory once again this afternoon as a surface trough axis deepens from SE CO through the TX Panhandle. However, despite another warm day with ample mixing, winds will not be nearly as strong as Tuesday given relatively weak flow in the 850mb-700mb layer. Still, the surface pressure gradient will be sufficient for sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph across most of the Caprock which will continue through this evening, and critical fire weather conditions will persist across a majority of the forecast area. Tonight, a notable shortwave trough will move quickly over southern CO and into KS/NE by Thursday morning. A sub-995mb surface low and its associated modified Pacific front will subsequently track eastward overnight, which combined with about 40kt of 850mb flow will keep winds relatively breezy tonight with sustained speeds around 15 to 20 mph for most.

On Thursday, the above-mentioned surface low will track northeastward into the Midwest, while a separate lee trough steadily deepens over southeast CO and northeast NM. Flow above 500mb will remain very strong, but the precise magnitude of low and midlevel flow is uncertain which results in low confidence in where the strongest winds will establish and how strong they become on Thursday afternoon. This is largely due to the development of a closed low at 850mb and 700mb which will position somewhere over eastern KS/NE during the afternoon hours. As a result, winds just off the surface will be strongest near this low, and relatively weaker over West TX. Still, the amplified surface pressure gradient and a trailing belt of 30-40kt flow at 700mb is expected to result in sustained west-northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph across most of the region on Thursday. These will likely be strongest over the southern TX Panhandle, weakening with southern extent. Regarding temperatures, Thursday will be a bit cooler relative to the past couple of days as modest cold advection continues on the back side of the surface low, with most locations seeing highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Sadly, the West Texas winds are not over yet. Fire weather danger and windy conditions will continue into Friday. Friday will start off with an upper shortwave translating over the Intermountain West. A jet maxima on the exit region of the shortwave will pass overhead with 250mb winds around 150 knots and 500 mb around 90 knots. The passing of the upper shortwave will trigger the development of a lee side low over southeastern CO. As the lee low ejects to the southeast, it will pull a Pacific cold front eastward through the region giving way for breezy to gusty westerly winds during the afternoon. NBM continues to come in too low with wind speeds, therefore were increased during the afternoon hours with a combination of NBM75th and NBM90th. Temperatures will continue with the cooling trend due to height decreases from the passing of the upper shortwave as well as the Pacific cold front, although still remain above seasonal average. Considering the cooler air behind the Pacific cold front, NBM came in too warm with temperatures on Friday compared to MOS guidance. Temperatures were decreased using NBM25th giving highs in the 60s across much of the region. Post frontal air will also be dry with RH values reaching as low as 12 percent. Windy and dry conditions will bring possible elevated to critical fire danger across the Caprock Friday afternoon where the strongest winds and lower RH values are expected. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 11 AM to 7 PM Friday for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and western Rolling Plains.

Luckily, the windy and warmer than normal temperatures do not continue and we can expect a pleasant and quiet weekend. Mostly zonal flow aloft will prevail as upper ridging begins to amplify over western CONUS. A cold front is progged to push through the region Saturday bringing northerly surface winds and seasonal normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. However, this is not expected to continue through the work week. The first half of the work week looks to be similar to this week with a passing shortwave over the Intermountain West each day. This upper pattern will give way to windy conditions and a warming trend beginning Monday with the potential for highs in the upper 70s and 80s by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Southwest winds will strengthen over the next few hours and remain relatively strong through this evening with gusts near 30 kt expected. Some minor visibility restrictions from BLDU are possible, but at this time VFR is likely to prevail. Winds will weaken slightly after sunset and become more westerly, and although a westerly low level jet may result in pockets of LLWS, will keep mention out of the TAF for now given the expectation that surface flow will remain relatively breezy overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through the rest of today, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for a majority of the region until 7 PM this evening. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are expected this afternoon with minimum RH values near or just below 10 percent. Tonight, winds will turn more westerly and remain relatively breezy with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph, with RH recovery around 40 to 50 percent. Another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected on Thursday. West- northwest winds will become strong by mid-morning Thursday, with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph likely over northern portions of the forecast area and slightly lighter winds farther south. Despite minimum RH values of 10 to 18 percent Thursday given cooler temperatures, critical fire weather conditions are still likely and the prior Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. An additional Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for Friday for areas on the Caprock.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>036- 039>041.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for TXZ021>038.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.