textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Occasional light snow will continue through this morning, then come to an end by this afternoon. - Very cold weather will persist through Monday, with dangerously cold wind chills expected during the morning hours.

- Dry weather returns to the area after the weekend with temperatures still well below seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

We are currently in the middle of an impactful winter storm late this Saturday night. The main batch of upper level ascent was moving east of the area associated with the warm conveyor belt. A number of intense areas of ascent were noted on water vapor imagery in New Mexico and Far West Texas. The activity in Far West Texas has seen robust thunderstorm development with more occasional thunderstorm activity from eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. Although the main upper level jet streak will be positioned across east Texas early Sunday morning, large scale ascent is expected to continue over West Texas. At the same time, we will see increased deformation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as the base of the upper level trough Far West Texas into central Texas. As the previous shift mentioned, an area of frontogenesis between 750 and 650mb oriented southwest to northeast will continue to move overhead through early Sunday morning further enhancing lift. This area of frontogenesis will favor areas on the caprock and the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. There is some overlap with the instability present above the frontogenetical layer which would favor more upright vertical motions. However, the instability will mostly be confined to the Rolling Plains.

The 00Z sounding from MAF continued to show a stout warm layer with temperatures as warm as +4C above an extremely cold arctic air mass. With the frontogenesis noted on model guidance, temperatures should also be decreasing through this warm layer. This will finally bring the warm layer aloft cool enough to produce mostly produce snow across the forecast area. Areas over the Rolling Plains would be the last to see the snow/sleet mix turn to all snow. Maximum snowfall will favor areas slightly farther south than previously thought stretching from the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle into the western South Plains. Furthermore, the latest hi-res guidance has lowered snowfall totals across this area as well. However, a swath of heavy snowfall with values between 5-7 inches is still expected across the aforementioned area. Peak snowfall rates can be expected between 06Z and 09Z. A secondary short wave trough will approach the area after sunrise on Sunday currently seen on water vapor imagery over northeastern Arizona. Lift from this feature will move overhead roughly between 12Z and 18Z with subsidence sweeping overhead during the afternoon hours. Snowfall with this short wave is expected to be fairly light adding up to an additional inch of snow favoring the southwestern South Plains. Towards the end of Sunday, skies are expected to clear and we may see sunshine before sunset late Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The rest of the week will feature northwest flow aloft and dry conditions until possibly the end of the week. An extremely strong 1045mb surface ridge will settle over the region Monday morning leading to stinging cold temperatures likely below 0F for the entire forecast area. A number of weak cold front will push through the area during the week keeping temperatures from moderating too much. Temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s after Monday or about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. A stronger push of cold air is forecast to move through around Friday or Saturday. Guidance had been entertaining another short wave trough dropping through the northwest flow aloft at the same time. However, the latest guidance has significantly weakened this feature but still remains a week out in the future.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Most wintry precipitation has come to an end across the region with VFR currently prevailing at all sites early this morning. Some additional -SN is still expected at KLBB and KPVW through about midday which may bring a brief period of MVFR CIGs and visibility, by VFR is expected to return by this evening. Otherwise, there is potential for FZFG towards the end of this TAF period, but confidence is too low for specific mention at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for TXZ021>044.