textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- No true relief anytime soon from the prolonged heat wave.

- A few thunderstorms remain possible Thursday in the far southwest TX Panhandle and northwest South Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Hot temperatures were well underway this hour and were within a degree or two of yesterday's readings as of noon. Some comfort in the form of a weak cold front was looming just north of Friona and Dimmitt complete with a few showers. As this boundary stalls nearby this afternoon, there are slight chances for high-based showers and storms through the evening. Despite updraft CAPEs of 500 J/kg or less, downdraft CAPEs are healthy in this deeply-mixed boundary layer to the tune of 1500-2000 J/kg, so microbursts will be possible before convection falters tonight. There is an opportunity for cooler outflow from any storms this evening to overspread much of the Caprock which could garner lower min temps, but this will hinge on the coverage and duration of storms farther northwest.

With the upper high parked over the Four Corners through Thursday, our area will see another window open for late day and evening storms under weakly unsettled northwesterly flow. The lingering front and/or additional outflow overnight should set up another northerly wind shift near the far southern TX Panhandle through the day. This boundary favors 20-30 PoPs by Thursday evening, perhaps a bit earlier. Advisory-level temps will again target most areas off the Caprock with highs around 100 elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Our late-summer heat wave and worsening drought hold tight over West Texas through at least next week as an upper high meanders nearby. By this weekend, the high drifts overhead from the Four Corners and brings with it a bout of even hotter temps, although this is not reflected well by the NBM which has been underperforming in the high temp department for a couple days now. High temperature probabilities across our northeastern counties for Sunday and Monday show a 40-50% chance of reaching Extreme Heat territory (110+) before dialing lower thereafter as the upper high retreats to our west. For anyone annoyed with this pattern, long-range ensembles show no meaningful change until the second week of September at the earliest. Interestingly, this aligns well with our local area climatology which typically favors our first proper cold front by early/mid September.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Light southerly winds will prevail though late afternoon Thursday. Check density altitude.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 036>038-042>044.