textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Cooler temperatures arrive Wednesday and continue through Saturday.

- Periods of rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Friday, with some locally heavy rain possible.

- Dry and warmer weather returns this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Flow aloft remains quasi-zonal over most of the CONUS today between a large ridge over Mexico and a deep upper low over the Hudson Bay region. A weak disturbance passing over southern Colorado will deepen a surface trough to our northwest resulting in another day of relatively strong westerly breezes and very warm temperatures today, with critical fire danger continuing on the Caprock. A backdoor cold front currently stretching from near AMA to areas just east of the Caprock Escarpment will stall and make little westward progress through the rest of today, but will nevertheless advance the rest of the way through the forecast area after sunset as cool surface ridging builds southward over Kansas and Oklahoma. Upstream low level moisture is not particularly impressive, but some degree of low cloud cover is still expected behind the front heading into Wednesday morning, and some very localized light drizzle or sprinkles cannot be ruled out either given weak isentropic lift within the cloud layer. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy and much cooler day is expected across the region Wednesday as easterly surface flow persists and mid/high level cloud cover increases as a ribbon of Pacific moisture aligns overhead. At this point, we expect Wednesday to remain mostly dry across the region given a lack of large-scale mid/upper level lift, although a brief isolated sprinkle or two will remain possible through the day. Temperatures will be pleasantly cooler though, with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The forecast is still on track for a period of much cooler and wetter weather during the Thursday through Friday timeframe. This will come as flow aloft turns more southwesterly ahead of a series of upper disturbances over the Baja region. Compared to prior forecasts, model consensus now favors a couple of distinct open waves transiting over the region instead of a single well-defined trough. This has resulted in a slight delay in the timing of steadiest precipitation, which is now expected from late Thursday through early Friday. Large-scale forcing for ascent is progged to be relatively strong during this period, so we expect shower activity to be fairly widespread especially late Thursday night through about midday Friday. Severe weather still appears very unlikely due to cool and stable surface conditions and relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms especially across southern portions of the forecast area. Given the strong forcing aloft, plentiful mid and upper moisture, and the expected long duration of on-and-off rain showers, there is some potential for locally heavy rainfall across portions of the region, although specific totals are still uncertain. Model consensus currently points to a decent probability of most locations receiving a half inch or more of rainfall total, but this could change depending on the precise track and timing of the upper waves. The other story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures late week, with highs only reaching the 60s on Thursday, and temperatures likely remaining stuck in the 50s on Friday. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side as well, with temperatures likely falling into the 30s over most of the Caprock by Saturday morning.

Dry weather is expected to return Saturday and Sunday as upper level ridging builds to our west in the wake of the departing system. This will result in a gradual warm up with highs still likely to be a bit cool on Saturday, but returning more towards normal by Sunday. Next week looks likely to start out warm and dry as the above mentioned ridge shifts overhead, with uncertainty increasing by midweek as a closed low moves over the Great Basin. For now, a dry and warm forecast is favored through next Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A stalled out cold front between KLBB/KPVW and KCDS will move westward this evening shifting winds to the east at KLBB and KPVW. A stronger push of the cold front will occur early Wednesday morning resulting in breezy easterly winds. There is a low chance of low CIGS especially in the vicinity of KLBB and KPVW but these chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>030-033>036-039>042.