textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- An elevated fire danger is expected this afternoon across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

- A weak disturbance will bring the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, with no severe weather expected.

- Active weather is expected to arrive Thursday and last through the weekend, with the potential for severe storms and flash flooding each day and night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Synoptic-scale flow remains split over the Lower 48, with a shortwave ridge meandering over the CWA that is expected to gradually deamplify over the next 24 hours as a low-amplitude impulse propagates into the Desert Southwest. An expansive cirrus shield will then begin advecting over W TX after solar noon, with coverage increasing throughout the rest of the day. The surface pattern is in a similar state to yesterday, with the anticyclone parked near JTN where winds are calm and variable. Winds remain veered towards the south-southwest on the Caprock, and will once again become slightly breezy this afternoon (excluding locales at the centroid of the surface high) in response to cyclogenesis in southeastern CO. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop across the far southwestern TX PH this afternoon, as the light breeze combined with RH minima near 15 percent results in RFTIs capped at 1 due to ERCs above the 90th percentile. Otherwise, highs will peak in the lower 70s area-wide beneath the increasing coverage of cirrus from the west.

Winds will back towards the south-southeast tonight as the surface high rotates eastward, with the overcast sky reducing the outgoing budget of longwave radiation, which will prevent Tuesday morning lows in the middle 40s. The shortwave impulse is forecast to emerge over the southern Rocky Mountains Tuesday morning, with the mid- and high-level theta surfaces moistening atop a well-mixed sub-cloud layer. A slight increase in theta-e with height above the LCL (i.e., warm mid-levels) will offset the advection of a more-stout elevated mixed layer, but at least a couple of hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, at around 200 J/kg or less, is forecast to advect over W TX during the day Tuesday. As stated in the prior forecasts, moist adiabatic profiles above the LCL will not only temper the overall lightning potential, but also preclude convective gusts. Therefore, mainly rain showers are expected for portions of the CWA Tuesday, with coverage of thunderstorms remaining isolated as updrafts struggle to reach heights high enough to generate lightning. Severe storms are not expected Tuesday. Restrictions to diabatic heating from the thick overcast will result in cooler temperatures, with brisk, southerly winds expected mid-day as cyclogenesis continues near the Raton Mesa. PoPs will then come to an end after dark Tuesday.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Semi-progressive flow will persist over North America by mid-week, with warmer conditions expected Wednesday following a slight increase in geopotential height tendencies. Return flow will also remain intact due to continued cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa, with the respective surface trough branching southwest of the surface low set to transition into a dryline by Thursday. The first of several series of shortwave perturbations is forecast to translate through a low-amplitude ridge and eject over the CWA Thursday. The associated weakness in the deep- and cloud-layer flow will yield effective shear magnitudes <30 kt; however, strong, mixed- layer theta-e advection west of the dryline will aid in garnering moderate thermal instability across the moist sector. The presence of cross-boundary shear vectors, albeit small, will promote the potential development of weak mesocyclones. This will pose a standard severe weather risk Thursday, as storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, with coverage of supercells remaining isolated-to-widely-scattered. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany storms, but the flash flooding risk is low Thursday.

By Friday, a shortwave trough, with a closed low embedded within, will be moving onshore the Pacific Coast. A pair of intensifying jet streaks will round its base and eject into the Desert Southwest, with the leading edge of the jetlets nosing into W TX late in the day Friday. The dryline will remain stalled between the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment and the NM state line, with the majority, if not all, of the CWA remaining within the moist sector. Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase accordingly, with intense, divergent outflow overspreading W TX Friday. Substantial moisture advection from the surface-to-aloft is forecast, with the potential for multiple rounds of severe storms posing a corresponding risk for flash flooding Friday and into the weekend. All convective hazards will be possible. The exact timing remains nebulous as of this prognostication, but evidence continues to converge on the potential for a prolonged period of storms and heavy rainfall, with nocturnal episodes of severe storms and flash flooding possible. While the CWA is currently in a severe (D2) drought, flash flooding can still occur if heavy rainfall occurs over short timescales, especially given the hydrophobic state of the soil. Details will continue to be resolved over the next several days, but confidence in multiple rounds of severe weather and heavy rain continues to increase from Friday into early next week for the entire CWA.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.