textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Friday. - Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, and quarter sized hail.

- Slightly cooler through the end of the week, with highs in the 70s to mid 90s, warming back up through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Currently some showers are impacting the northwestern portion of the forecast area, following a shortwave trough moving in from New Mexico. Some locations in the South Plains have already received rainfall totals of a few tenths of an inch. The line of showers is continuing to move Northeast. Some CAMs show rain leaving the forecast area in the next few hours. The majority of the Rolling Plains are expected to stay somewhat dry throughout the forecast period; however, with POPs hovering between 20% and 30% and abundant moisture, there are chances some areas in the Rolling Plains could see rainfall totals up to a few tenths of an inch. Thursday evening and overnight rain chances for the Extreme Southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains look better, with POPs around 60%, a shortwave through moving through the area, and upslope winds. It's likely that any developing precipitation will be isolated or scattered, and any storms that develop during the forecast period will likely remain sub-severe. However, with MUCAPE values above 1000J there is a possibility for some strong to marginally-severe storms in the northwestern portion of the CWA this evening. Thursdays high temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 70s in the Southern Plains and warmer in the upper 80s to low 90s in the Rolling Plains. Overnight lows range from the low 60s on the Caprock and low 70s off the Caprock. Models show that overnight precipitation in the extreme Southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains may linger during the day Friday, withs POPs around 65%. Any lingering storms will likely be isolated or scattered and remain sub- severe. By Friday evening, models show scattered storms moving into the Rolling Plains. Friday's highs are extremely similar to yesterdays, with highs on the Caprock in the mid to upper 70s and upper 80s to low 90s off the Caprock.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A broad upper shortwave trough will keep rain chances increased across the FA late Friday night into Saturday morning before upper ridging takes hold of the Central and Southern Plains by Sunday, helping squash rain chances. While confidence is high in a pattern chance from the upper ridge by mid week, models are split on the actual pattern. The ECMWF develops a H566 upper low over the Four Corners by Tuesday evening before moving over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by early Thursday. The GFS keeps the upper trough as an open wave. Both scenarios make use of the rich tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific and bring very good, widespread rain chances to the region. The ECMWF solution would bring the best and heaviest rain chances. Both solutions also bring a cold front into the FA between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, the GFS having the stronger and more aggressive front. This would also enhance lift and keep rain chances decently high (as far as long term forecasts go). This also falls in line with historical El Nino trends. October, historically, tends to be a fairly wet month for the South Plains region. Though the forecast is still during September, it is just days from October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving out of the terminals early this afternoon. There still exists a very high degree of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Because of this uncertainty, any mention of thunder was left out of the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.