textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Very warm temperatures today with a slight chance of late day storms mainly across the southwestern and south-central South Plains.

- The storms late this afternoon and evening may produce strong to severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain.

- Hot again on Thursday, although a cold front will arrive late in the day and increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across mainly northern and eastern areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The minor shortwave that passed across West Texas overnight will be replaced by zonal flow aloft today with subtle height rises. With the mid-level flow turning more westerly, we'll get a little more easterly push to the surface trough/dryline this afternoon, but it still won't make it very far into the forecast area, likely only into the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South Plains. Forecast soundings suggest that the strong heating and convergence along the dryline should be able to gradually wear down the cap, especially from the southern South Plains through southeast New Mexico and into Far West Texas. Additionally, a weak perturbation will be approaching this area from the Desert Southwest. So, it does appear that we'll see some late day t-storm activity develop across that area, generally from Lubbock southwestward. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg or so with PWATs around 1.3 to 1.4 inches, but weak mid-level flow (but decently sheared from the sfc to 6km). Thus the activity should be slow-moving, capable of locally heavy downbursts with perhaps a low-end severe wind threat. The activity should gradually wane during the evening hours. Wednesday high temperatures should range from the mid 90s to right around 100F.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thursday, a cold front will be heading toward the area from the north and storm chances will be tied to where that front is located by peak heating, as we should stay capped south of the front. There won't be much if any upper-level support for storm development but convergence along the front will likely produce at least some activity, with lingering uncertainty over the coverage. The highest storm chances will be across the far southwest Texas Panhandle into the east-central South Plains and Rolling Plains. There may be some potential for cell training and heavy rain along the stalling front, although again, the lack of synoptic-scale lift may temper this potential. Many locations on Friday could hit triple- digits before the front enters the picture.

The front will likely retreat north Friday taking rain chances with it but it will still be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the lower 90s. There may be a chance of showers and t-storms across the far southern Texas Panhandle. A ridge building over TX should keep us dry and take temperatures up a notch. Then, Sunday into Monday, a strong trough moving into the northern and central Plains will suppress the ridge and send a stronger front though the area. This should result in markedly cooler temperatures Monday into Tuesday with a chance of rain tied to the front's passage.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period. MVFR clouds are sitting just to the east of KLBB and KPVW. These clouds are not expected to reach either terminal. Breezy southerly winds will prevail through this afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms around KLBB, however location of storm development is uncertain at the moment, therefore left out of TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.