textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Critical to extremely critical fire danger will exist Monday afternoon across much of the region.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and off the Caprock, then again along an overnight front Monday into Tuesday.

- Much cooler Tuesday through Friday with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorms throughout the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

An upper level shortwave trough digging through the Desert Southwest will set up near the Four Corners regions early Monday morning, before translating into the Southern Plains by late Monday afternoon. Thus leading to the continuation of southwest flow aloft across the area. Increased speeds aloft are expected by Monday morning the upper level low inches closer to the region, with speeds around 40 to 50 knots, and up to 60+ knots within the H5 jet. Additionally, mid-level winds will also increase and overspread the Caprock regions as notable H7 and H8 wind maxima set up near the South Plains while a surface lows sets up over the northern Texas Panhandle. This will promote eastward mixing of a sharpening dryline across the area Monday afternoon, setting up across our most eastern column of counties, while temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits as breezy to near windy southwest flow continues. Three hour MSLP changes around 3mb to 4mb suggest winds will become near and/or in excess of wind advisory level criteria with speeds around 25 to 35 mph with potential gusts to 50 mph not out of the question. A wind advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon through 8 PM CDT Monday. East of the boundary, low- level moisture will be more robust, with dewpoint temperatures progged in the 50s and 60s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures will support moderate to strong instability across the Rolling Plains with soundings depicting MLCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg. While weak large scale ascent may limit overall storm coverage across the CWA, with better forcing for ascent residing to our north, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible late Monday afternoon and evening where localized surface convergence is maximized along the dryline before it mixes east out of the area. West of the dryline, hot temperatures along with breezy to wind southwest winds and low relative humidity values will support extremely critical fire danger. Especially on the Caprock were RFTIs of 7 to 8 appear likely with ERCs ranging from the 70th to 95th percentiles. These conditions will promote the rapid spread of wildfires if any fire starts initiate Monday afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM Monday.

By Monday night, the upper trough will moves through the Plains region sending an associated cold front into the region as the surface high dives southward. Most CAMs keep this front north of the area through the short term period, with the front moving into northern portions of the FA around 05Z Tuesday. Given the faster progression of the front in recent guidance, there is a chance this front speeds up and enters portions of the area before midnight. Nonetheless, an additional chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, primarily across our most eastern column of counties. However much of this will be based on the amount of residual moisture that resides in our area during this time frame.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A much needed cool down is expected to start the extended forecast period as the cold front, previously mentioned above in the short term discussion, makes it's arrival into the Caprock regions. Most guidance has the cold front making its way through the southern portion of the FA just after daybreak Tuesday. As mentioned above, a chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, mainly across the Rolling Plains with chances waning through morning. Most precipitation chances will be dependent on the amount of moisture present during the time of the FROPA. If thunderstorms are able to develop, the potential for large hail will exist with forecast soundings depicting steep mid-leel lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots. Northerly winds will prevail through much of the morning Tuesday, before shifting more easterly Tuesday afternoon as the surface high shifts east and a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With a cooler airmass in place and upslope component to the winds will allow for much cooler highs Tuesday in the 70s and 80s. This easterly component to the winds will be maintained through much of the mid-week period, allowing for the cooler highs to remain in place through Thursday, before a modest warm-up begins to start the weekend.

There remains a small window for a few showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the stalled FROPA begins to retreat back northward closer to the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but if this boundary retreats back into the southern portions of the FA Tuesday afternoon and evening we could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. As for precipitation the remainder of the week, longwave troughing will encompass much of the western CONUS throughout the week, allowing for southwest flow to prevail over the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base of the trough while perturbations simultaneously track through the main flow. In addition to the upslope component to the winds allowing for increased moisture transport from the Gulf into the region may be enough for daily chances for shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday, when we see the best forcing for ascent and increased low to mid-level moisture with PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal 9around an inch to an inch and a half) for this time of year. However, it is a bit too early to get into specifics given the lack of uniformity amongst model guidance at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MVFR CIGs have moved over PVW and LBB and are encroaching upon CDS. It is likely that MVFR CIGs will move over CDS within the next hour or two. VFR conditions will return the the terminals by 15Z and prevail thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much of the Caprock regions Monday afternoon. Breezy to low- end windy southwest winds are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with the highest speeds fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits, relative humidity values will begin to drop into the lower single digits during the afternoon. Across the Caprock is where we expect the highest threat for extremely critical fire danger to exist with RFTIs around 7 to 8. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM CDT Monday through 10 PM CDT Monday evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon till 8 PM CDT Monday. Do your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to help prevent the rapid spread of wildfires.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-039>043.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036.