textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions for areas on the Caprock today.

- Rain becoming more likely Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

- Warmer and dry conditions Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Benign conditions will prevail overnight with light winds, clearing skies, and lows ranging west to east from the upper 40s to low 60s. A more shallow trough will push across the Rockies on Tuesday leading to a broad surface low centered over northwestern New Mexico in the afternoon. This will again bring breezy westerly winds sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. A Red Flag warning has been issued for areas on the Caprock from noon through 8 PM. Upper height rises will bring warmer highs into the upper 80s to mid 90s. A surface cold front will move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting out of the NE by morning. Mostly cloudy skies and much cooler temperatures will result with highs only reaching the low-to-mid 70s for most areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

An upper cutoff low will quickly move onshore over Baja California Thursday. Initially models indicated it remaining closed and thus somewhat stronger. Now it appears as if it will be an open wave by the time it reaches the Desert Southwest, eventually phasing with a trough to the north. Much of the rain downstream looks to begin early Friday morning, persisting all day. While it remains somewhat too soon to give specific amounts, periods of locally heavy rain are looking more likely. Well below average temperatures will accompany the rain and highs should hold in the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. A few scattered showers may linger into Saturday, however an approaching upper ridge will lead to warmer and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

TS early this morning will stay well south of CDS. Else, expect VFR with gusty W winds developing later this morning at LBB and PVW. A cold front late this evening will turn winds easterly at 10-15 knots at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Sustained westerly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph along with single-digit humidities near 5% will develop this afternoon on the Caprock. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 8 PM. A cold front with easterly winds will move through the region tonight finally leading to low fire weather concerns for the rest of the week.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.