textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Warm and benign weather will continue through Sunday.

- A low potential for rain showers remains intact for early next week while remaining warm.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Quiet and mild weather will continue across the region as the large- amplitude upper level ridge axis associated with the remnants of the midweek rex block continues to slowly shift eastward. The ridge is progged to center directly over the West TX region on Friday, with the resulting midlevel height increases and 850mb temps about 2C warmer than Thursday boosting high temperatures Friday afternoon into the mid to upper 70s area-wide, with a few low 80s also looking likely off the Caprock. Pleasantly light winds will also continue through the day as surface ridging persists to our south. Friday evening, a weakening backdoor cold front will slowly push into the region from the, but with little impact other than a shift to light east-northeast winds. Temperatures will again be above average Friday night, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The Rex Block over the western U.S. will have reached extinction by Saturday, with a southern-stream, neutrally-tilting, shortwave trough forecast to pivot over northern Baja CA. A closed, mid-level cyclone will be embedded within the trough; and the cyclone should ascent through the depth of the steering layer (i.e., 850-300 mb) while remaining compact. The implications of a compact cyclone ascending throughout the depth of the steering layer typically leads to semi-organized or organized bands of precipitation (in this case, rain) over a small geospatial area, all of which will govern PoPs for early next week. Over the weekend, benign weather is expected, with return flow becoming established once again Saturday as leeward pressure falls ensue across the Great Plains. Anomalous warmth remains forecast, with highs 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms expected this weekend, as the deamplifying, mid/upper-level ridge shifts eastward over the southern Great Plains. As previously stated in prior forecast discussions, despite the anomalous warmth, highs will remain far below record values. A weak cold front will move into the CWA Sunday, with winds becoming light and variable; and a gradual thickening of a high-level overcast can be expected over the course of the weekend as the shortwave trough pivots towards W TX.

Global NWP guidance continues to converge on the evolution and track of the shortwave trough as it pivots eastward into northern Mexico by Monday. Moist, isentropic ascent will have already been present over the weekend (i.e., thickening cirrus shield), but gradual moistening of the mid-level theta surfaces will occur Monday as the northern edge of the 700 mb trough arrives. High-level divergence is forecast to increase by late-day Monday as the 300 mb jet streak noses into W TX, with prospects for rain showers arriving late Monday night into Tuesday morning. NBM PoPs have crept upward from previous initializations, but PoPs have been capped at 30-percent, or a chance, as the bulk of the moist, isentropic ascent should remain displaced to the south and east of the CWA. The best potential for WAA-induced rain showers will be across the Rolling Plains during the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday along the theta-e tongue, with the showers remaining elevated.

Area-averaged soundings are indicating the potential for some very weak CAPE, or near 200 J/kg, to advect through the mid-levels over portions of the Rolling Plains. So, there is a slim potential for updrafts to become high enough to generate a lightning strike or two, but thunderstorms have been withheld from the official forecast due to low confidence in the potential for lightning. QPF will be light with this event, and not everyone will see rain. The consensus over the prior forecast assessments remains steady, with a slight uptick in confidence for at least a light footprint of rain for some locales, primarily in the eastern zones. A cold front is then forecast to move in from the north following the departure of this system, but it will be undergoing frontolysis as it removes beneath the incoming shortwave ridge from the west. Dry weather is forecast for mid-week, with an inkling of PoPs returning by next weekend.

Sincavage

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR and light winds will continue at all TAF sites.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.