textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the middle of next week.

- Record warmth is possible Friday and especially Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a southern-stream, shortwave trough was pivoting across the southern Great Plains, with a corridor of confluent flow advecting over W TX and downstream of an intense shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone was located near CDS, with a trough extending to the southwest to GNC. Winds have transitioned to the north following the southeastward movement of this surface trough, with the eastern Rolling Plains remaining within the moist sector where winds prevail from the south. This surface trough will continue to slosh towards the southeast through the predawn hours, with light, northerly winds expected to veer southwestward by late Wednesday morning. While the CWA remains on the backside of the departing shortwave trough pivoting over W TX, the typical geopotential height rises have been offset by the emergence of the shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Therefore, high temperatures will peak in the upper 60s and lower 70s once again Wednesday afternoon, with southwesterly winds becoming breezy by late-afternoon in response to the leeward pressure falls generated by cyclogenesis in the northern Great Plains. The breeze will persist into Wednesday night, with Thursday morning lows about 7-10 degrees warmer than the prior morning.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

After a brief stint of mild weather Thursday, record warmth is possible Friday and especially Saturday at CDS and LBB. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature an intense, negatively-tilting shortwave trough digging into the central and northern Great Plains. Brisk, northwesterly winds are expected prior to sunrise, as a pre-frontal surface trough moves through W TX. By sunrise, a strong cold front, with its southward progression reinforced by an intense, mid-level jetlet approaching 80 kt rounding the base of the trough over KS, will move through the CWA. Winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile, as the passage of the trough will generate a strong, isallobaric response as the polar surface high rotates southward across the northern Great Plains. Northeasterly winds around 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, are expected Thursday before quickly diminishing following the cessation of vertical mixing. High temperatures Thursday were also cooled a few degrees, and aligned with the recent MOS guidance, to account for the modifying CAA post-FROPA. The cP airmass will settle into the region Thursday night, with the 1022-1024 mb post-frontal high rotating into central N TX by Friday morning.

A restoration to quasi-zonal flow is forecast across the Lower 48 Friday through the weekend, allowing the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge to eclipse the southern Great Plains. Global NWP guidance continues to indicate geopotential heights near 580 dam over W TX, with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 17-21 deg C by Saturday afternoon. The warm-up will begin Friday, with breezy, southwesterly winds expected beneath the rising geopotential heights. Highs Friday will be close to record values, primarily at LBB, with much better prospects for record high temperatures at both CDS and LBB Saturday. Winds will be veered westward Saturday, which will allow the full effects of adiabatic compression to be realized and boost highs to nearly 30 degrees above seasonal norms at CDS and LBB. It appears that the previous record highs at CDS and LBB will be smashed Saturday afternoon. Please reference the table below for the temperature records and forecast for Friday and Saturday. A weak cold front originating from a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes region is then forecast to move through W TX Sunday, and will knock highs back into the middle 60s for most locales, which is still 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the middle of next week. PoPs remain NIL. ____________________________________________

Temperature records at LBB and CDS for Friday, December 19th; and Saturday, December 20th, 2025:

Lubbock Airport Childress Airport Forecast Record Forecast Record Fri 75 76 (1921) 69 75 (2013) Sat 84 80 (1921) 80 78 (2010) ____________________________________________

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR next 24 hours. Light, northerly winds overnight will become southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon, with winds becoming breezy late Wednesday night at KLBB and KPVW.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.