textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Hot and dry conditions expected areawide on Sunday with near average conditions the rest of the week.

- Storms possible along a stalled out cold front Monday.

- Northwest flow storms possible during the evening and overnight hours beginning on Tuesday through mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Chances of thunderstorms look highly unlikely for this afternoon into the evening. A short wave trough moving across the Rockies will induce surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies this afternoon. A dryline will sharpen up in eastern New Mexico this afternoon which may become a focus for convective initiation later today. Fairly good low level convergence will exist along the southern end of the dryline in southeastern New Mexico. Fairly healthy instability on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE will exist immediately east of the dryline under minimal capping. Upper flow will be increasing through the day leading to increasing deep layer shear which may bring some weakly organized thunderstorms if any were to develop. However, the likelihood of any storms making it into West Texas are low given increasing CIN farther east off the dryline. For tonight, low stratus will try to make a run at the area again from the south but is expected to fall short of the FA.

Much hotter temperatures are expected for Sunday afternoon. The aforementioned surface low will migrate eastward into central Kansas Sunday afternoon with the trailing dryline mixing off the caprock. Convection is highly unlikely along this dryline given strong capping in place under the very hot temperatures. Maximum temperatures on Sunday are expected to be fairly uniform from 102- 105 degrees with the exception of areas in the canyon a few degrees higher. At the moment, this is borderline heat advisory criteria so confidence is low in any one particular area reaching criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Certainty in the forecast decreases considerably for Monday as a cold front attempts to slide into the area. The southward extent of the front is highly uncertain in the afternoon and evening hours putting much doubt in the thunder forecast. Higher chances of convection will exist east of the region across north Texas into Oklahoma given the better moisture and proximity to a weak short wave trough dropping across the Central Plains. An upper level ridge over northern Mexico into southern Arizona/New Mexico will amplify beginning late on Monday through mid-week. Depending on the exact location of the ridge, this may bring daily chances of northwest flow storms during the evening and overnight hours. Deterministic models differ some with the positioning of the ridge which may mean the difference between storms rolling into the area from New Mexico or storms staying north in the Texas Panhandle each evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Breezy southerly winds will persist at all sites through the TAF period. VFR will continue.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.