textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Record highs are likely from Christmas through Saturday.

- Much cooler by Sunday with slim chances of light snow Sunday night and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Gulf moisture was bisecting the forecast area from SW-NE late this morning complete with dewpoints in the lower 60s in Stonewall County. A narrow strip of moist sector stratus was still hanging tight at 11 AM over the southern South Plains, but we expect this to clear by early afternoon as regional skycams reveal this layer to be quite thin. Highs will soar through the 70s today and remain mild overnight as SSW winds veer more westerly as a surface trough glides east from NM. Although this process shunts the gulf moisture farther south and east overnight, the moist sector remains close enough to our far southern row of counties to warrant stratus and some fog development there early on Christmas morning.

Christmas promises to be a record breaker for highs as deeper westerly flow underneath a flattening ridge advects a plume of toasty 850-700 mb temps our way. The 850 mb thermal ridge is shown to reside from HOB-LBB-CDS by midday which when combined with breezy downslope winds is enough to go a little above NBM's high temps. Lubbock could tie or break its all-time warmest high for December of 85 degrees set just this past Monday. Farther north, winds were boosted into the 20-25 mph range under a belt of 25 knot 850 mb westerlies in the southern TX Panhandle. This along with record warmth, favorable fuels and low relative humidity will drive an elevated fire danger.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Two more days of record warmth are likely Friday and Saturday before the upper pattern pivots from SW flow to cyclonic W-NW flow by early next week. This transition is courtesy of a potent trough carving its way east across the north-central CONUS followed by a cold front reaching our area by Sunday morning - which is a bit later than earlier forecasts and as a result high temps for Sunday have trended upward. Nonetheless, highs by Monday ahead of the shearing axis of this trough with mostly cloudy skies will be downright chilly in the 40s. Regarding hopes for wintry precip, models are wavering enough from run-to-run to keep us from getting too excited about snow. The details boil down to how much top-down saturation we can achieve ahead of the slow- moving and shearing trough axis. The ECMWF has been the most bullish lately as it pinches off an upper low over the Desert SW that directs more subtropical moisture our way. Ensemble means from the GEFS, EPS and Canadian are generally less impressive. Considering we have a chilly and bone dry surface high oozing south all day on Monday, the cons seem to be stacking up in favor of little/no precip potential or perhaps just flurries. Still, 20-30 PoPs this many days out are fine for details that still need to come into focus. Subsidence arrives in the wake of the decaying trough for Monday night while upper ridging blossoms just to our west. This ridge draws closer for the final days of 2025 fostering a return to milder temps.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some fog and/or stratus are likely to develop to the south of KLBB but should stay of that terminal. Light south to southwest winds overnight to late morning Christmas Day at which time they veer to southwest to west and become gusty.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.