textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather possible across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Cooler temperatures will prevail through mid-week.

- Increasing chances of severe weather late next week through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Winds will slowly decrease this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes following the cold front from early this morning. A sprawling 1030mb surface ridge will settle over Kansas/Oklahoma tonight into early Sunday morning. Easterly upslope winds will allow for cooler temperatures to prevail overnight and on Sunday. Overnight lows tonight will drop to values just below seasonal averages. A light freeze is possible across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle on Sunday morning. Upper level ridging will start to build over the area on Sunday. Weak surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies on Sunday will lead to an increase in the surface pressure gradient and therefore breezy winds on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to build overhead through the day on Monday. A very weak short wave trough will undercut the ridge late in the day on Sunday into early Monday. This short wave will move eastward across northern Mexico into Far West Texas during this time period. Although the short wave may look weak, it will still bring a subtropical jet max around 65-75kt just to the south of the FA. Because of the location of the short wave, moist isentropic ascent will primarily be located to the south of the FA with little chances of precipitation locally.

Another short wave trough will take a similar track on Tuesday but farther to the north across New Mexico. This short wave will bring higher chances of measurable precipitation to the region. Return flow will be anemic ahead of this trough increasing uncertainty in the probability of precipitation. With cooler temperatures still in place on Tuesday and unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, instability will be almost non-existent garnering only a slight chance of thunder with any precipitation activity. Attention will then turn to the second half of the week with a possible active weather pattern taking shape. A trough/closed low over the eastern Pacific will work its way into the western CONUS late next week through the weekend. As usual at this time frame, details are lacking but the potential for several days of severe convection will be possible. At the moment, analog guidance is highlighting Thursday and beyond with increased chances of severe weather.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northeasterly winds are expected to decrease shortly after sunset, with a lull in winds expected overnight. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected again Sunday.

Tomerlin

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.