textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- A cooling trend begins Monday through Thursday with high temperatures below climatological normals expected.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, the severe threat remains low.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to rapidly decrease in coverage this evening with most of the activity lingering across our most southern row of counties. Lubbock county seemed to be the big winner with Sunday evening precipitation with some locations seeing up to 2.00" while the average totals were around 0.5" to 1.00". Similar to the previous night, a weak LLJ may try and develop overnight and if any showers are able to persist through this period there is a small chance for growth upscale and potentially turning into a MCV. However, there is no real guidance hinting at this at the moment so confidence is a big "what-if" at this point in time.

The upper level ridge and area of associated high pressure will continue to build eastward into portions of the Central/Northern Plains Monday while an upper trough dives into the PacNW. While the center of the area of high pressure centers itself over the Upper Midwest. In response, flow aloft will continue to veer out of the east-northeast across the region while minor perturbations track through the flow and clipping portions of the area by the afternoon. A similar surface pattern will be in place Monday as it was Sunday, with influence from the surface high to our north expanding into the Caprock regions allowing for the upslope component to the winds to remain in place. As a result, we will continue to see moisture return at the lower levels will dewpoints progged to remain in the 50s to lower 70s across the FA. Mid to upper level moisture will remain limited, due to the southern periphery of the upper high clipping the northern half of the FA. Given this, limited moisture within the H7 to H3 layer will remain across portions of the southwestern South Plains, with the bulk of the moisture placed further south into the Big Country. Precipitation chances will likely be maximized across this area Monday afternoon, with most models backing off on precipitation chances compared to what we saw this time yesterday. Similar to Sunday, most activity will be reinforced by outflow boundaries tracking through the area which seems to be reflected by the latest run of the HRRR. Activity will likely remain isolated at best with a similar severe threat as today with strong to severe wind gusts in excess of +50 mph. Storm motions will be slow and given PWATs will still remain above normal for this time of year, there is a chance for heavy rainfall which could lead to the potential for localized flash flooding concerns across low- lying areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure will remain centered over the High Plains region to start the extended, where it is expected to translate eastward in response to the upper low moving into the PacNW by mid-week. This synoptic pattern will lead to the continuation of easterly flow aloft and at the surface as the surface high expands southward into portions of Central Texas while troughing is maintained across northeastern New Mexico. Allowing the easterly component to the surface winds to continue through much of the extended forecast period. Not only will these moist easterly winds promote moisture transport into the region, but they will work with the daily decrease in heights and thickness to influence cooler temperatures across the Caprock regions. Highs are forecasted to be below climatological standards for this time of year in the 80s. In fact, ensemble MOS guidance is hinting at highs on Thursday being the coolest of the weak with some locations remaining in the 70s. However, this will be dependent on precipitation and lingering cloud cover throughout the day. By the end of the week, we will begin to see a warming trend as a 597 dam upper high begins to build back over the western CONUS.

As far as precipitation goes, ensemble guidance has backed off on Tuesday and Wednesday PoPs, given the expected positioning of the upper high is expected to suppress and limit thunderstorm potential. However, given the abundant moisture in place there is a chance for activity across our most southern row of counties where we expect the bulk of the moisture to reside. Ensemble guidance is now hinting at late week being the main show for the best widespread precipitation chances as an easterly wave tracks into the region from SECONUS, pushing the upper high north. In response, we will likely see moisture transport through much of the column as flow becomes southeasterly through the H3 to H7 layer while large scale ascent begins to increase. However, confidence remains low in regards to the coverage and timing of this given this is still several days out.We will maintain NBM mentionable PoPs for the time being. However, these may need to be altered either way to account for any changes in regards to the positioning of the easterly wave and upper high. Discussion goes here

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

CAVOK. Just an outside chance of SHRA or TS creeping into LBB's airspace today, but will keep mention out of the TAF. A few patches of VFR stratus north of CDS this hour should not pose any problems before dissipating soon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.