textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Cooler temperatures through the weekend.

- Periods of rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Friday, with some locally heavy rain possible.

- Dry and warmer weather returns next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A break in the fire weather conditions is imminent for the region lasting through the weekend. This stretch of cooler weather will be kicked off by a cold front this evening currently moving westward through the area. This will knock temperatures back down around five degrees below seasonal averages for late April. Some brief low stratus may emerge behind the front early Wednesday morning but is not expected to persist into the afternoon. Mid and high level cloud cover will remain preventing full sun in the afternoon. More extensive low stratus is expected to fill in early Thursday morning as low level winds veer more to the southeast drawing up increased moisture into the region.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A couple of short wave troughs will provide the necessary lift to create precipitation from Thursday into Saturday. The first of these short waves will be dropping southeastward out of the Great Basin on Thursday. The area will in the vicinity of an entrance region of a ~130kt jet streak but may be too far to the north to bring any appreciable large scale ascent. At the same time, moist isentropic ascent will be increasing which will be the primary lifting mechanism during the daytime on Thursday. This will lead to generally light rainfall during this time period. The warm air advection regime will garner very weak instability overhead bringing at most a slight chance of embedded thunder within the light rainfall. The strongest large scale lift will arrive late on Thursday into Friday from a short wave trough moving out of the southwestern US. This trough is currently a closed off low sitting well off the coast of southern California. The latest guidance continues to slow down this low as it becomes absorbed into the larger scale flow. This places the best lift from late Thursday into Friday. Our best chances of precipitation will be on Friday but this could delay even later as this low will struggle to come onshore. Similar to Thursday, weak elevated instability will exist on Friday leading to at best a slight chance of thunder. At the moment, severe chances are zero during this time period. Precipitable water values will surge above the 90th percentile from Wednesday morning through Friday night. Some threat of localized heavy rainfall will be possible with these highly anomalous precipitable water values.

It is not entirely clear on when precipitation will cut off this weekend. Guidance shows another potential short wave trough dropping out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains anywhere from Saturday into Sunday. After the weekend, shortwave ridging looks to move overhead bringing warmer temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Leading edge of MVFR stratus was about 30SE LBB moving NW, but struggling, so will keep a TEMPO at LBB and PVW for the next couple hours. Stratus approaching CDS is VFR and will similarly fall apart later this morning. Expect steady ENE winds through tonight, breeziest this morning.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.