textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Warm and breezy with critical fire danger on both Thursday and Friday.

- A few storms are possible Friday night off the Caprock.

- A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. 7

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dry weather will continue through the overnight period and during the day on Thursday as surface flow maintains a notable westerly component, keeping low level moisture well to our east. Flow aloft will gradually begin backing on Thursday ahead of the next upper level system transiting over the intermountain west, but with broad surface troughing set to persist over SE CO and the TX Panhandle which will delay the onset of moisture return across our region. Southwest winds are expected to be a bit stronger on Thursday afternoon compared to the past couple of days, which combined with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and RH values below 10 percent will result in critical fire weather conditions across the Caprock on Thursday afternoon. Surface flow will finally back towards a more southerly direction Thursday night which will quickly pull some shallow moisture northward into our region by early Friday. As this moisture return occurs, a bit of lift associated with a modest low level jet could be sufficient to generate a few showers or storms overnight Thursday through early Friday. However, this is appearing increasingly unlikely given the rather weak forcing and plentiful convective inhibition in place over the region.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Friday will begin on the humid side, but surface moisture will quickly mix out as stronger southwesterly low level flow develops in response to deepening troughing ahead of a strong cold front descending southward through KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles. Winds will become solidly breezy by Friday afternoon which will bring another day of critical fire weather conditions to most of the region. The above-mentioned cold front is then expected to pass southward through the region near or just after sunset, bringing a shift to strong north winds along with a sharp cooldown Friday night. For the majority of the forecast area, this will be a dry frontal passage. However, a few storms may still develop off the Caprock Friday night as the front intersects the retreating dryline in addition to increasing upper level forcing for ascent. Plentiful instability and 50+ kt bulk shear magnitudes could result in some of these storms becoming severe late Friday night in this area, especially over the eastern Rolling Plains.

Dry and relatively cool weather is expected area-wide throughout the upcoming weekend as a ~1025mb surface ridge builds over the region, with a light freeze not out of the question over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. By early next week, model consensus favors modest upper level ridging building over our area ahead of a deep low off the CA/OR coast. A few weak disturbances beneath the ridge combined with returning low level moisture may bring a few showers or storms to the region on Monday, but the bulk of this activity looks likely to remain to our south and east. Warmer temperatures then return Tuesday and beyond with a dry forecast currently favored through next Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Winds will remain light through dawn, with winds transitioning towards the southwest by 17Z and becoming breezy at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Winds will then back to the south Thursday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Southwest winds will strengthen by late Thursday morning and become quite breezy through the rest of the day. Sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected across most of the Caprock Thursday afternoon which combined with minimum RH values in the single digits will result in critical fire weather conditions over most of the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM Thursday for most areas on the Caprock. Slightly weaker winds off the Caprock will keep fire danger in the elevated category east of the escarpment, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect there from 12 PM to 8 PM as well. Similar conditions are expected Friday, although winds will likely be a bit stronger compared to Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of the region on Friday afternoon and evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for TXZ021>037-039>042.