textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Hot temperatures expected Tuesday before a slight cool down the rest of the week.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening. Severe storms with the potential for strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.

- Thunderstorm chances again Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Following the hottest day of the week and what could possibly be the hottest day of the year, a mild overnight period is expected. Current radar imagery shows showers continue to linger for northern areas on the Caprock. These showers are expected to clear in the next hour, however chances for precipitation continue through midnight. Winds will be light and variable with lows in the lower 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 80s across southern Rolling Plains tonight. Current water vapor imagery shows the persistent upper ridging has already begun to retreat west. It will continue to slowly track west before parking across the Desert Southwest through Tuesday. Although the upper ridging has exited the region and temperatures are expected to cool down, highs will only cool a few degrees compared to today. Highs on the Caprock will range from 100 to 104 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 105 to 108 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM Tuesday for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across northern portions of the forecast area Tuesday evening. A surface trough will settle across the Central Plains with the apex sitting across the Texas Panhandle bringing easterly surface flow to the Panhandle. Upslope flow will result in scattered thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in NM and CO Tuesday afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft around the upper ridging will push the storms to the southeast, reaching our region by the evening. The greatest hazard expected with these storms are strong wind gusts and outflows. Forecast soundings show an inverted-v sounding for Tuesday evening, therefore can expect high based thunderstorms and with DCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg, downbursts will be possible. Can expect wind gusts up to 75 mph with any severe thunderstorms. Small hail will be possible, however confidence in severe hail is low with MUCAPE values < 100 J/kg. However, some hail up to quarter size cannot be ruled out. Storms are expected to reach northwestern portions of the CWA late afternoon and early evening before pushing east across the rest of the forecast area through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The cooling trend will continue through the week with highs in the 90s across much of the region everyday. Thursday looks to be the coolest day this week with highs in the lower 90s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 90s across the southern Rolling Plains. Chances for thunderstorms return again Wednesday and Thursday. A very similar set up as expected Tuesday evening is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Upslope flow will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing over higher terrain in NM and CO. Northwesterly flow will push these storms southeast into our CWA. By the weekend, an upper trough will swing across the Pacific Northwest, causing the upper ridging to expand back to the east across our region. This will dry out conditions and warm temperatures back into the triple digits.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A cold front is expected to push southward into the region today mostly affecting the winds at KCDS. The front is anticipated to remain north of the KPVW and KLBB terminals keeping the winds out of the southwest to west through the daytime. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected to move into the region from the west late this afternoon into the late evening hours. The KCDS terminal will see the greatest chances of thunderstorms with lesser chances at KPVW and KLBB. At the moment, confidence is not high enough to mention TS in the TAF.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ024>026-031- 032-037-038-042>044.