textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Mostly sunny and warm conditions through Monday afternoon.

- Tropical moisture Monday evening through Wednesday will bring widespread (potentially heavy) rain chances and cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have departed the forecast area to the south and east and a quiet night is expected with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s. An upper ridge axis will move over the region on Sunday, bringing mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. The ridge will continue to have the majority of influence through the day Monday with essentially the same forecast as Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Attention will quickly turn to a pair of systems to our south and west. A deep positively titled upper low will descend over Southern California late Monday into Tuesday. At the same time, Hurricane Polo is expected to be making landfall over southern Baja California. The main upper through flow orientation would be enough on its own to bring a large fetch of Pacific moisture over our area, however this will also be combined with it "sweeping up" the remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo. Timing remains somewhat uncertain, but areas along the TX/NM border would see the first of the associated precipitation Monday evening, with rain gradually shifting eastward with the progression of the aforementioned through. Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning looks to be the period that will see the heaviest and most widespread rainfall across the entire forecast area. GFS/NAM develops the dry slot sooner and thus an earlier end time Wednesday morning, while ECMWF remains more optimistic with regards to rain persisting for longer. Respective GFS/ECMWF ensembles are similar to their deterministic counterparts. It remains too early to be overly specific and everything will be monitored closely in the coming days. A drier pattern looks to develop thereafter into next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Previous model runs indicated some patchy fog and low stratus may impact the region, however models have backed off on this. Winds will remain light and variable overnight before shifting to the north to northwest by Sunday morning. Currently, thunderstorms remain well to the south of KCDS, however there is still a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two to develop near the terminal through the rest of this evening.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.