textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- The warming trend will continue through the week before cooling slightly by the weekend.

- Mostly dry conditions will continue through the work week, with chances for rain returning by late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

We continue to see rain showers across eastern New Mexico sneaking into our forecast area. These showers are not expected to produce much except for light rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Slight chance for showers for areas on the Caprock will continue through the early afternoon hours. Once these showers clear out, our forecast area will be dry the rest of today through Tuesday. Current upper water vapor imagery shows low amplitude ridging to the east while an upper low sits off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will track south along the western coast while the upper ridging expands west across the region. This will shift the upper flow from southwest to northwest. We will continue to see a gradual warming trend as the upper ridging moves overhead. Current temperatures in the 50s will warm to the 70s across the region by late this afternoon. Tonight will be another quiet one; however, slightly warmer than previous.Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow lows to cool to the lower 50s across the forecast area. The aforementioned upper ridge will prevail over the region Tuesday as the upper low will slowly change course and push onshore off the coast of southern California. Slight height and thickness increases will slightly warm temperatures on Tuesday, but only by a degree or two with highs still in the 70s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The long term forecast will start off with warm and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday as the stubborn upper ridging will prevail. Height and thickness increases will warm temperatures to the upper 70s to lower 80s and precipitation chances near zero. At the same time, the upper trough will finally push all the way onshore, dominating western CONUS. By the weekend, the upper ridging will finally get with the program and shift east away from the forecast area. With the upper trough spanning across western to central CONUS, southwesterly flow will fill in aloft, ushering in subtropical moisture to the mid to upper levels. Plenty of moisture and multiple passing shortwaves will bring potential for showers and thunderstorms everyday over the weekend and possibly early next week. Daily precipitation chances and mostly cloudy skies will also slightly cool temperatures over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.