textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- High-based thunderstorms, some severe, remain possible this afternoon.

- Very mild this week with sporadic chances for thunderstorms from Monday night through Friday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The dryline has moved into our western zones as of noon and is continuing to progress eastward. Some CAMs show some isolated convection developing along the dryline this afternoon across the eastern South Plains. Confidence in convection at this point is rather low as upper lift will be lacking with lift relying mostly on surface convergence which is also not much to get excited about. Nonetheless, a mention of isolated storms has been added before 00Z as there is a non-zero chance for convection. Any convection should be short lived and could be strong to low end severe with wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to half dollar size being possible.

Tonight through Monday morning will be fairly quiet. Upper flow will remain out of the southwest. A lee surface low will develop after sunset this evening ahead of an embedded shortwave. This will help to keep surface winds mostly out of the southwest tonight and will keep overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. A second surface low will develop across eastern Colorado by early noon Monday as upper low over northern California pushes southward into southern California and begins pushing eastward. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and allow for a breezy Monday afternoon. Sustained winds around 20 mph out of the southwest can be expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Unsettled southwest flow loiters through late week accompanied by daily chances for thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock near the mean dryline's position most days and nights. Monday night should see the dryline retreat onto portions of the Caprock ahead of a shortwave trough, but this wave is not schedule to reach the forecast area until Tuesday night. Nonetheless, convective temps look reachable Tuesday afternoon off the Caprock with a likelihood for the dryline to retreat once again Tuesday night supporting low PoPs on the South Plains, mainly as a Pacific front overtakes this boundary. Severe potential in in the cards given ample shear and MUCAPEs pushing 2000 J/kg.

Hump day is shaping up the most stable day all week on the heels of Tuesday night's trough and weak FROPA. Gulf moisture returns on Thursday ahead of a more vigorous trough entering the Intermountain West. Models still differ with PoPs Thursday night accompanying a lead impulse and this is captured by the NBM's broad 20 PoPs. Stronger and deeper SW flow on Friday following this lead wave look to mix the dryline out of much of our area ahead of a cold front dropping south Friday night. This front and dryline will support low PoPs in the Rolling Plains overnight before much cooler northerlies round out the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a very low chance for thunderstorms at the terminals between 20Z-00Z. Confidence is too low for a TAF mention. Primary threats from any convection will be wind gusts up to 50 knots and hail up to 1.5 inch in diameter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather danger is expected Monday afternoon mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. While some areas did receive wetting rains Saturday, most areas missed out and remain dry which is reflected in ERCs around the 70th percentile. Afternoon relative humidity will drop into the mid teens area wide while 20 foot winds will be out of the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of the southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains from 11 AM through 8 PM Monday. An RFD is not currently anticipated for areas south of the RFW, but one is not fully out of the question. Those areas received more widespread wetting rainfall. This will help with green-up and make fuels dry more slowly.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ021>024- 027>029.