textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through Tuesday due to warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

- Cooler weather is likely from Wednesday through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase beginning early Thursday lasting through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Strong winds will continue this afternoon even in the wake of a short wave trough moving from the Central Plains into the Midwest. Strong southwest flow aloft will persist today contributing to the strong surface winds. Large scale ascent will also move overhead this afternoon, however, this will only be lifting dry air.

A back door cold front will attempt to make its way into the area from the northeast this evening and through the overnight hours. Low stratus and fog may be possible across the southeastern Texas Panhandle behind this front Tuesday morning. However, guidance is not too excited about this phenomena occurring. The front will quickly stall out after sunrise as deep boundary layer mixing commences. Another short wave trough will emerge from the central Rockies into the Central Plains on Tuesday morning into the afternoon. A surface response will take place in northeastern New Mexico in the form of a deepening surface cyclone. Boundary layer mixing is forecast to be somewhere between 700 and 600 mb. Winds near the top of this layer will be around 40kt and not decrease until late in the afternoon supporting strong winds at the surface. Additionally, high level cloud cover will arrive late in the day but likely too late to inhibit any potential mixing. The extreme mixing will also bring very dry air down to the surface on Tuesday with dew points likely in the single digits. Furthermore, temperatures will receive another healthy boost well into the 90s off the caprock due to the downsloping winds. Temperatures will be on the order of 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages but still several degrees below record levels.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The weather pattern will finally undergo a change late on Tuesday into early Wednesday as the aforementioned back door cold front pushes through the region. Cool, easterly, upslope flow will persist through the weekend bringing much cooler temperatures. A complicated upper level weather pattern will emerge from late Wednesday into Thursday. One short wave will be moving over the Great Basin early on Thursday with a closed off low just off the coast of southern California. This first short wave trough will bring large scale ascent to the area beginning early on Thursday. Ascent will increase in the second half of the day as the closed low opens up and moves across the southwestern US. The bulk of the precipitation will likely come from this second short wave trough late on Thursday into early Friday. Timing and latitude of the trough has varied a bit with every model run so this forecast can easily change within the next few days. Cool surface temperatures will keep instability values on the low side throughout this time period, therefore, severe chances are very low but some thunder will be possible. There is a stronger threat for heavy rainfall with moisture values on the order of 3-4 standard deviations above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Breezy westerly winds this afternoon will decrease after sunset. Some light visby restrictions due to blowing dust may be possible this afternoon but are not expected to drop beyond VFR. A cold front will slowly ooze into the region tonight bringing light northeast winds at KCDS and possible CIG/visby restrictions. However, confidence in the lower CIGS and visbys is low at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.