textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- One last warm day today before an Arctic blast arrives Friday.

- An impactful winter storm is will affect the region this weekend with accumulating wintry precipitation expected from late Friday through early Sunday.

- Extremely cold temperatures are expected over the weekend with wind chills as low as 15 below zero possible each morning.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1220 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today will be the last warm day before the arctic front pushes through the region. The upper low currently off the coast of California will push southward through the day ending west of the southern California coast. A surface high currently across the Central Plains will push eastward towards the Ohio River Valley by mid morning as a surface lee trough develops. This will bring surface winds to the south by late morning/early afternoon and will help to warm highs into the mid 50s/around 60. The arctic front is still progged to move into our northern zones before midnight tonight and south and west of the FA before 12Z Friday. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front as models have slightly slowed it down, but the general consensus is for the front to move through before sunrise Friday. The timing of the front will have a direct effect on overnight lows. The forecast currently

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The long term package will start off with the very active weekend. Friday morning, a closed upper low associated with the persistent broad upper troughing over eastern CONUS will exit the Great Lakes region over the Quebec province. Concurrently, an associated arctic front will push south towards the Texas Panhandle. The front is expected through the region before sunrise Friday bringing breezy northeasterly winds to the region. Much colder temperatures are expected over the weekend following the front. Although the front will be through the region early Friday, the much colder arctic air isn't expected to push in until Friday afternoon. This will allow temperatures to slightly warm to the upper 20s across northern portions of the CWA and upper 30s over southern portions before cooling through the rest of Friday. Colder temperatures will continue through Saturday and Sunday with single digit lows expected every night. At the same time, wind chills 15 below zero will be possible.

In addition to the colder temperatures, we will also see the return of winter precipitation chances early Friday morning through early Sunday morning. As the upper low exits to the east, a secondary upper low spins off the coast of Baja California. Mostly zonal flow aloft will shift to the southwest as the upper low gradually shifts to the south toward Baja Mexico. This shift in flow aloft will aid in ushering in subtropical moisture over the region. Precipitation chances will begin Friday with sufficient upper level lift supplied by an upper jet associated with the broad trough over eastern CONUS sets up overhead and low-level lift supplied by the FROPA and isentropic lift. Upper level lift will persist as the upper jet moves away overnight Friday giving way to a secondary much stronger jet associated with the system to the west as it moves on shore over Baja Mexico early Saturday morning. As the upper system moves over the Desert Southwest, it will transition into an open wave continuing upper lift through early Sunday morning before getting absorbed into northern flow. There are some discrepancies in the timing of this upper pattern between models. ECMWF has a faster progression with the trough being absorbed into northerly flow mid- day Saturday while GFS has a slower progression. This results in continued uncertainty in the timing and amount of precipitation. As for the type of precipitation, we will see a mix of winter precipitation types across the region. Soundings indicate northern portions of our region have a better chance at seeing snow. However, soundings for southeastern portions of the CWA show a mid-level warm nose indicating those areas will most likely see freezing rain. Current snow totals indicate some northern portions of the regions could see up to 8 inches while southern portions could see somewhere between 3-5 inches. Up to one tenth of ice or more will be possible for areas expecting freezing rain.

Once the upper level trough is absorbed into northerly flow, mostly zonal flow will prevail aloft through the first half of next week. Precipitation chances dwindle Sunday as the port-frontal high pushes into the region. Cold temperatures remain Sunday, however we will see a gradual warming trend beginning Monday as surface winds shift to the west to start off the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR and modest south winds will continue at all TAF sites today through this evening. Winds will become easterly late tonight with CIGs likely to fall to MVFR or IFR after 06z.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for TXZ021>044.