textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- A cold front will move through West Texas tonight, resulting in increasing clouds and much cooler temperatures Monday..

- Slight precipitation chances beginning Tuesday and continue through the week, mainly off the Caprock.

- Multiple cold front this week will bring a roller coaster of highs, although remain above seasonal average.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, broadly anticyclonic flow was advecting over the Desert Southwest and into the southern Great Plains, with a shortwave impulse translating through the mean flow over the central Great Plains. Mid-level ACCAS and altocu were observed by satellite and webcams over the far southern TX PH, and are a result of the shallow, isentropic ascent embedded within the northwesterly flow along the southern periphery of the shortwave impulse. Large-scale subsidence was not too far south and west, with the rest of the CWA bereft of clouds. Farther south, a low-level stratus deck was also evident on satellite imagery across the Edwards Plateau and into the, and this stratus deck is forecast to advect poleward into the CWA tonight into Monday due to the backing of 850 mb winds.

At the surface, a weak cyclone was objectively analyzed in the far southeastern TX PH east of CDS, with a slow-moving cold front bending north-northwestward into the TX PH and a quasi-stationary front draped eastward along the Red River. A pre-frontal surface trough also branched southwestward from the cyclone, and is located along a line from CDS-LBB-HOB per recent WTM data. The presence of this boundary has maintained the southwesterly breeze across the Caprock, while winds become variable in the Rolling Plains. Winds across the eastern TX PH and into the northern Rolling Plains are expected to back northeastward as the front(s) sag southward through this afternoon. Very warm to even hot temperatures remain in store across the pre-frontal airmass this afternoon, with highs peaking in the middle 80s for most of the CWA. Cooler highs expected in the far southeastern TX PH, or in the middle 70s.

By tonight, the cold front is expected to progress southwestward across the CWA on the backside of the shortwave impulse as it propagates into the MS River Valley. Light, northeasterly winds will prevail, with the expectation for the low-level stratus deck to advect poleward atop the shallow, post-frontal airmass. Prospects for fog remain limited to portions of the Caprock, but the breeze and advection of the low-level stratus deck should counteract widespread fog from developing. Therefore, fog has been withheld from the official forecast. Low clouds are forecast to linger into Monday afternoon, especially in the Rolling Plains, and sky cover was raised accordingly. Temperatures were also lowered towards the cooler side of the statistical envelope, which has a bifurcation of nearly 25 degrees between the MET/MAV/MEX/ECX. Limited insolation and the slow veering of post-frontal winds should result in much cooler highs compared to today. Highs in the upper 50s are now forecast across the far southeastern TX PH; lower-middle 60s for the Rolling Plains and portions of the Caprock; and into the lower 70s along and west of the HWY-385 corridor Monday. Highs may need to be tweaked in the forthcoming cycles, as temperatures will be largely governed by the spatiotemporal extent of the low-level stratus deck Monday afternoon. Winds should begin to back to the southeast on the Caprock by solar noon, warranting a better chance for warmer highs.

Sincavage

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An upper level pattern change will bring precipitation chances to portions of our region for the long term forecast. Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, an upper level trough will translate across the Rockies toward the Central Plains. The placement of the upper system will dry slot most of our CWA. However, portions of an upper jet associated with the trough will pass over eastern portions of our region bringing upper ascent over those areas. On the surface, a lee surface low will develop early Tuesday morning giving way to breezy southwesterly winds during the afternoon. The same lee low will swing a Pacific front eastward through the region later Tuesday afternoon bringing breezy westerly winds and dry conditions mostly on the Caprock as the front looks to stall just off the Caprock. Elevated to near critical fire danger will be possible Tuesday afternoon on the Caprock from the dry and breezy conditions following the front. Off the Caprock, rain showers will be possible over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains with gulf moisture from southerly surface flow and upper ascent. Severe weather is not expected with any developing showers with soundings over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle indicating single digit CAPE. However, with much of our CWA dry slotted, greater precipitation chances will remain to the east and southeast of our area. As for temperatures, following a cooler Monday, the breezy southwesterly to westerly surface flow will allow temperatures to warm to the 80s across the region.

A roller coaster of temperatures is expected to continue through the week as multiple upper waves translating over western and central CONUS, swinging multiple fronts through the region. The exiting trough from Tuesday will swing the first cold front through the region late Tuesday through early Wednesday. This will cool temperatures to the 70s for Wednesday, however this does not last long as southerly surface flow returns Thursday giving way for another 80 degree day. Another cool down is expected over the weekend with models indicating another cold front pushing through the region.

Precipitation chances continue through the rest of week. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail as another upper trough is expected to translate over western CONUS towards the Central Plains the latter half of the work week. This set up will continue to usher in subtropical moisture. Similar to Tuesday, greatest chances will be off the Caprock where an upper jet associated with the trough looks to pass over. Over the weekend, models indicate a closed low developing off the coast of SoCal. However, this is still days away and can expect changes for future forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR prevails through this evening at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. A cold front was located near KCDS, and winds will continue to transition to the northeast throughout the rest of today. Southwest winds will persist at KLBB and KPVW until tonight when the cold front moves through W TX. CIGs are forecast to lower into MVFR at KCDS, and into IFR at KLBB and KPVW overnight. LIFR CIGs will be possible at KLBB and KPVW, but confidence is too low to warrant an inclusion in the TAFs. Overcast is forecast to last beyond the scope of this TAF cycle, but CIGs should begin to rise into MVFR at all terminals by Monday afternoon.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.