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KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Quiet and mild weather this afternoon and tonight, before a winter storm impacts the region this weekend.

- Wintry precipitation to begin Friday, transitioning from cold rain to freezing rain/sleet then to snow through Sunday.

- Extremely cold temperatures are expected over the weekend with wind chills as low as 15 below zero possible each morning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Active weather will return to the area beginning Friday, before that expect a quiet day to prevail with highs in the 50s and 60s. Thereafter, the upper level low associated with the broad troughing of the eastern CONUS will continue to scoot through the eastern Canadian provinces. In turn, it will work to swing a strong arctic front through our region by Friday morning. Hi-resolution guidance has continued with the slower progression of the front, with a notable wind shift out of the northeast shortly after midnight. However, the surge of colder air will stall to the north until the surface high over the Dakotas expands southward, plunging the cooler airmass south by mid-morning/early afternoon Friday. As a result, temperatures on Friday are a bit warmer compared to the forecast this time 24 hours ago. That being said, NBM continues to be a bit warmer compared to most guidance so have opted to continue with the alteration of MaxTs using a blend of CONSMOS and NBM to achieve highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Nonetheless, highs across at least our northern row of counties will likely see MaxT's reached overnight or during the early morning hours with the front expected to be through that area before daylight.

In regards to precipitation on Friday, the cutoff low off to our west will begin to slowly inch eastward, translating through the US/MX border through the day. As a result, southwest flow across the region will continue to aid in subtropical moisture transport into our region. While moist return flow ahead of the FROPA will work to usher in some moisture to the lower-levels. Given the positioning of this system will remain off to our west, with the better large scale ascent positioned over central NM, lift will primarily be driven by the approaching FROPA, with a modest contribution from weak isentropic ascent. Current thinking is that areas off the Caprock will see isolated cold rain showers begin as early as daybreak Friday, increasing in coverage through the afternoon where we begin to see areas of sleet and freezing rain mix in. Taking a look at model forecast soundings across the FA, they all portray something a little different in regards to p-type. One thing they seem to have in common is the warmer trend in regards to temperature, which brings back the concern for ice accumulations. Soundings across our southeastern counties tend to be the warmest, with the evidence of a decent warm-nose layer around 850mb to 700mb. There still remains a deep column of cold air beneath this elevated warm layer, which causes a bit of forecast uncertainty of how much is freezing rain versus sleet. Thinking is that at least until the FROPA moves through and we see temperatures plummet, any precipitation that transcribes across this area will see freezing rain until we can top-down moisten completely and cool to the surface. Whereas across much of the northern Rolling Plains, South Plains, and far TX Panhandle region, soundings portray more of a sleet/snow scenario still as we are expected to cool faster across this area. In addition to the warm-nose not being as strong,the colder airmass beneath it looks deep enough for any melting that does occur within this column should have the ability to refreeze before reaching the ground. As a result, Friday looks to be more of a mixed precipitation event rather than snowfall, although snow fill begin to mix in across our northern counties towards the end of the day Friday. There is the potential we see thunder sleet across our southeastern counties, with MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg present.

Main impacts for Friday will occur overnight from wet roadways freezing overnight, in addition to any ice accumulations from the amount of freezing rain and/or sleet that occurs. In addition to the bitter arctic cold in place with wind chills as low as -5 to -15 degrees possible. Given the latest details, an upgrade to the Winter Storm Warning seems necessary this afternoon for much of the area, as well as an upgrade to an Extreme Cold Warning for the bitter cold. Now is the time to prepare... protect the 4P's and prepare for travel impacts if on the road. Remember, being prepared does not mean you are overreacting, it's taking the measures to keep you and your family safe in the event of hazardous weather.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The start of the long-term period will remain active as well. The upper level low across the northeast will continue to translate eastward while the cutoff low over the southwestern CONUS follows suit. Most models are in agreement with the slower evolution of this system as it shifts east, becoming an open wave feature as it approaches the region from the west. Ahead of the system, southwest flow will continue to advect subtropical moisture into the region via the H5 jet, while we find ourselves beneath better jet dynamics the closer the trough axis gets. Knowing this with the arctic airmass in place, precipitation will likely continue through beginning of the long term period Friday night through Sunday. In regards to precipitation type, we will continue to see that mix of wintry precipitation mentioned in the short term continue through Friday night into Saturday morning. Before we see a lull in precipitation overall through early afternoon Saturday as we wait for the approaching trough to enter the region. By late afternoon Saturday into Saturday evening, the H5 jet will begin to creep into portions of the area, where we will find ourselves within the left- exit region of the H5 jet streak. Large scale ascent with this system combined with the moisture in place will allow for precipitation to regenerate, where we expect to see the onset of snow across the region. Taking a look at the forecast soundings across the area during this time period, the main difference from Friday is the erosion of the above freezing warm-nose. Although still present, the elevated warm layer will remain subfreezing with an even deeper and cooler column just beneath this to the surface. With the thermal column below freezing through the DGZ, combined with the extremely cold surface temperatures (with highs in the single digits and lower teens Saturday), we will notice that this environment will favor dendritic growth. Lead to the thought that snow ratios will be high (around 15:1 or 20:1 give or take), meaning although the QPF footprint is small, we could still see heavy snow accumulations across our area. As a result, precipitation by Saturday looks to favor the transition to snow across much of our area. Farther southeast, a warm nose persists aloft. Despite this, the colder overall thermal profile favors a sleet scenario versus freezing rain. Towards the overnight period, the aforementioned area could even see the full transition to snow as we continue to evaporatively cool. Overnight Saturday through Sunday, we expect any precipitation that occurs to be in the form of snow before we see chances wane from west to east as we begin to lose supportive large scale ascent as the system departs.

Main hazards during the long term will once again be the bitter cold across our area, with the coldest temperatures expected Saturday and Saturday night as lows drop into the single digits with similar wind chills as Friday night. Additionally, snow accumulations could be a cause of concern rather than ice as we see that transition during the early afternoon. Most accumulations are expected to occur overnight, as the core of the jet moves overhead with the current storm total snow accumulations looking to be up to 8" across our northern counties while our southern counties could see up to 4". As always, this will be dependent on the exact positioning of this system and just how cool we get to determine the timing of transition to snow. Nonetheless, now is the time to prepare by having a plan for the bitter cold and hazardous travel conditions this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 05Z with CIGs lowering to MVFR through roughly 12Z. Flying conditions will deteriorate rapidly after 12Z. IFR to LIFR CIGs will then be expected and remain beyond the TAF cycle. -FZRA will be possible at all terminals after 18Z Friday. There is uncertainty with timing and possible ice amounts, but confidence is high enough for a PROB30 at this time.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Friday night to noon CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.