textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the Caprock later this afternoon and evening with the potential for strong wind gusts up to 75 mph.

- Chances for precipitation will continue almost every afternoon and evening next week.

- Hot temperatures in the 90s to triple digits expected everyday next week. Possible Heat Advisory Highs towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The 4th remains on track for a hot day with thunderstorm chances in the evening. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging across southern CONUS. Thickness increases due to the ridging will keep the warming trend through today. Current surface observations as of 9:30 AM show temperatures are already in the 80s across the region. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s across the Caprock and just below Heat Advisory triple digits off the Caprock. Current southwesterly surface flow is expected to shift to the southeast early this afternoon as a lee trough tightens across CO and NM. At the same time, a diffused outflow boundary is currently pushing across the Texas Panhandle. Following a pleasant, but hot day, thunderstorm chances return this evening. An embedded upper shortwave will pass across the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon and evening providing upper forcing. Low-level forcing will come from decent moisture convergence due to the moist southeasterly upslope flow as well as the diffused boundary traveling south across the Texas Panhandle. CAMs indicate isolated thunderstorms developing along this boundary across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle later this afternoon before quickly dissipating. Moisture convergence this evening will bring another round of scattered thunderstorms across eastern NM and expand into our northwestern zones of the CWA. Main hazard expected will be strong wind gusts as inverted-v soundings indicate much of these thunderstorms will be elevated. Can also expect gusty outflows as these thunderstorms will most likely be short-lived with weak shear (around 20 kts) hindering updraft growth. These thunderstorms also have the potential to produce downbursts as current soundings indicate DCAPE values up to 1800 J/kg. With this many factors contributing to gusty winds, we can expect strong gusts up to 70-75 mph in the vicinity of these thunderstorms and outflows. If any thunderstorm is able to overcome the weak shear, at most we could see up to quarter size hail, however the potential for severe hail is low. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially in the vicinity of any downbursts.

Thunderstorms are expected to linger across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern portions of the South Plains overnight. A slightly cooler overnight is expected compared to previous nights, at least across northwestern zones where the storms will prevail. This will give a wide range of lows in the lower to mid-60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. We will see a small break in storms early Sunday morning. Upper ridging will continue to dominate the southwestern CONUS as the same time a low-amplitude positively tilted trough will pass across the Central Plains. An embedded shortwave between the two upper disturbances will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region through much of Sunday. CAMs indicate isolated storms will develop across the Caprock and southern areas off the Caprock early Sunday afternoon and expand southeast across and out of the forecast area. Another diffused boundary will move in from NM during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary before expanding east to southeast across the Caprock. Very similar to the thunderstorm activity from this past week, thunderstorms are expected to be elevated. Main hazard expected would be strong winds from outflows and downbursts with soundings indicating DCAPE values up to 1400 J/kg. Severe hail potential is low, however cannot rule out up to quarter size hail. Locally heavy rainfall with potential for flooding is also possible. With much of the day storm potential, temperatures will slightly cool for Sunday, however highs are expected to remain in the 90s across much of the region with triple digits still possible across the southern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a hot Monday with slight thunderstorm chances later in the day. Another embedded upper shortwave will pass across the forecast area Monday bringing another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains through the evening. However, models indicate much of the activity will be across northeastern NM with the slight chance of expanding into our region. We will see a break from daily storm chances on Tuesday as models have now backed off on storm potential compared to previous forecasts. Alas, NBM has thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening beginning Wednesday through the end of the week. However, models seem to go back and forth on thunderstorm chances through the weekend, therefore could expect continue changes for future forecasts. Upper ridging will continue to dominate southern CONUS through the week keeping temperatures hot with possible Heat Advisory highs towards the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd. Isolated -TSRA is possible at all three terminals after 00Z. However, given the uncertainty of timing and storm placement have opted to leave it out of the forecast now, but expect updated timing as the day progresses. Expecting 05-10G25kts from the S-SW followed by a decrease in winds to 05-10kts.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.