textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Rolling Plains including Caprock Canyons State Park for Tuesday afternoon and evening for temperatures near 105 degrees.

- A conditional threat of strong to severe downburst winds will exist on Tuesday with any showers and thunderstorms which develop, mainly west of Interstate 27 / Highway 87

- Warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 100-108 range.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A dome of high pressure will be the primary driver for the weather for Tuesday. A weakness in the high will persist across southern NM into Chihuahua/Sonora which will help support afternoon to early evening showers and thunderstorms primarily focusing on areas west of I-27. While shear remains weak, thermodynamic profiles will support the potential for strong downburst winds from pulse-type storms. Hot temps will prevail with highs running roughly about 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Anticipated highs on Tuesday presently are right at the threshold for head advisory criteria, but given the margin of forecast error, will continue the Heat Advisory for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The dome of high pressure will shift southeastward into NTX and OK with a closed contour of 596 DAM over southwestern Oklahoma. However, a frontal boundary will serve to taper temperatures to our east to some extent and there exists at least some risk that the frontal progression could overperform the modes and sneak into Childress on Wednesday. I suspect it will not make much of a difference as guidance continues to show rather hot temps across the region either side of the boundary. The theta-e misery index looks maximized over the eastern part of the state. Here in WTX, it won't be a whole lot better, with Tds in the 60s WED/THU peaking 70s making it feel like central TX summer by Friday before slightly drier air makes it back in for the weekend. Regardless, it will remain hot. There are some hints of potential NW flow storms up in the Panhandle on Saturday though the generalized pattern doesn't look quite as classic as I'd like to get excited, but there is at least some potential.

I suspect we will probably a few days with heat advisories in our CWA as the week continues, but we'll tackle those in sequence.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-043-044.