textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Warm and dry Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions on the Caprock.

- Precipitation chances through Saturday, mainly off the Caprock. Possible strong to severe storms Thursday.

- Additional fire weather concerns for portions of the area Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Winds will remain elevated overnight keeping Tuesday morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. A trough moving over the Rockies through the day will lead to the development of a surface low near the TX/NM border. Breezy SW winds sustained around 15 mph will result across the area and again lead to well-above average temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Forcing parameters will improve over the far SE Panhandle as the aforementioned through axis approaches. Synoptic models are currently much more agressive indicating showers and thunderstorms over this area, whereas CAMs keep any precipitation to the east. Nonetheless, PoPs have been retained as along with favorable forcing, PWATs will reach around 1", and instability will increase during the afternoon peak heating. Greatest shower and thunderstorm chances would occur in the evening before tapering off overnight. Humidities will fall to 10-15% generally on the Caprock and combined with the aforementioned breezy winds and warm temperatures will bring elevated fire conditions.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The aforementioned trough will depart off to the northeast Wednesday morning and surface winds switch north behind its trailing cold front. Highs will fall into the low-to-mid 70s with winds becoming lighter through the day. A deep upper trough descends through the Intermountain West Thursday and a deeper ~994 mb resultant surface low will develop over eastern Colorado bringing stronger southerly winds. Shortwaves ahead of the main trough along with a noticable dryline will help lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Exactly where they develop remains uncertain, but at this point it would generally be expected along and east of I-27. A few storms may become severe producing large hail and strong winds. Southwest winds will return Friday and outside of a few showers and thunderstorms late-day over the far southern Rolling Plains, benign conditions will prevail. Another upper low will split and become cutoff from the main flow before taking an unusual SE track and stalling off the Baja California this weekend. Once it begins to move eastward early next week, precipitation chances will again increase across our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites today. Relatively light west winds will dominate through most of the day before stronger northeast winds arrive with a cold front in the 06-12z timeframe tonight. MVFR CIGs are possible behind the front and into Wednesday morning, but will address this in later TAF cycles when confidence in timing and coverage is higher.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Winds will increase out of the west on Tuesday to near 15 mph with some gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Combined with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and humidities falling to 10-15%, elevated fire weather concerns are expected across western portions of the Caprock, with near critical fire conditions over the far SW Panhandle. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle from noon until 7 PM Tuesday. A cold front moving through Wednesday morning will bring cooler temperatures and diminishing northerly winds during the day, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.