textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Continued hot and dry through Wednesday.

- Storm chances increase Thursday and Friday with slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The weakness in the expansive high that has been positioned across the southern half of the country is beginning to lose its definition as the western lobe of the high starts to break down. This is being driven by an approaching trough approaching the west coast. While the loss of grip will still keep things dry for us, things look to change in the extended as outlined below. Still, for Tuesday, we can expect another hot day with temperatures similar to the past several days...that is remaining about 10 degrees above seasonal norms. The tropical wave that has been moving ashore the middle Texas coast toward DFW will not make much of a difference for us.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

As the aforementioned trough out west, associated with a nearly closed low across SRN BC/NRN WA, edges eastward, flow becomes increasingly southwesterly. This transition, occurring during the early morning hours of Thursday, will bring a more favorable pattern for precipitation. A tropical wave, which had been suggested the past few evenings, looks to no longer be at play for mid-week though there could be increasing Gulf moisture in the mid levels by another potential wave this coming weekend. Still, it's models trying to manage a weak feature and this is something they do not typically handle well. The best opportunity for storms appears to be Thursday evening and again on Friday though perhaps favoring the far northwestern zones on the latter. Present indications suggest we'll be back to dry for the weekend as the trough ejects into the northern plains thus allowing the ridge to become firmly entrenched across the southern CONUS once again. Temperatures on Thu/Fri look maybe 3-4 degrees cooler areawide with the extra clouds and lower geopotential heights. Have no fear, things should rebound to what we've experienced the past few days by next Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR with gusty southerly winds to around 20 knots by midday.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.