textproduct: Lubbock

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Breezy and cooler with increasing fire danger on Friday behind an early-day cold front.

- Temperatures remain chilly on Saturday, but will return to values near normal thereafter.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Late morning water vapor channel imagery highlights deepening troughing in place over the eastern half of the continent, with a pair of well-defined embedded shortwave disturbances over WY and MT. Unseasonable warmth will be the main story through the rest of today given downslope westerly surface flow courtesy of a lee-side trough over NE NM, with a majority of our area expected to reach into the 70s this afternoon. Another relatively mild overnight period is on the way tonight with lows running about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Late tonight into early Friday, the above-mentioned pair of shortwaves will collectively deepen as they move southeastward, with models placing the center of the shortwave trough axis over KS/OK by midday. This evolution will result in an early-day cold frontal passage followed by a continuation of breezy conditions through the rest of the day. A strong 50-60kt H7 jet streak is progged to center over western OK on Friday afternoon, but momentum aloft is likely to have a relatively sharp cutoff from east to west, which combined with the presence of a broadening surface ridge over eastern NM should prevent winds from getting too out of hand across our forecast area on Friday. Nevertheless, it will still be breezy Friday, especially with the initial frontal passage during the morning and over the SE TX Panhandle during the afternoon. The post- frontal airmass is also progged to be very dry, with elevated or critical fire weather conditions likely on Friday afternoon across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of the Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday is expected to be the coldest day of the extended forecast period, with deep easterly low level flow progged to persist most of the day as a chilly ~1032mb surface ridge builds southward over the southern Great Plains. Increased cloud cover in addition to the upslope surface component will result in highs mainly in the low 40s on Saturday afternoon. There is a very slim chance of a few flurries over the TX Panhandle on Saturday afternoon as lift associated with a well-defined vort lobe transits overhead, but it still seems rather unlikely that anything will make it to the surface given dewpoint depressions on the order of 30-40F.

Overall, the upper level pattern is still expected to remain stagnant through most of next week as deep troughing persists over most of the eastern CONUS. After a brief warm-up on Sunday, another cold front will bring one more chillier day to the region on Monday. Tuesday through the rest of the week, the trough will begin to de- amplify which will gradually bring a return of more zonal flow aloft over West TX. As a result, milder weather looks more likely during the middle to later portion of next week, but precipitation chances still remain near zero.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. LLWS will be possible behind the FROPA around daybreak through mid-morning at all TAF sites. Thereafter, breezy speeds will continue through the remainder of the day before diminishing by the late afternoon Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

On Friday, sustained north to northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across the region through about midday. On the Caprock, these winds will then gradually weaken through the afternoon. However, winds will maintain strength over the southeastern Texas Panhandle which combined with RH values near 10 percent will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon. There is some potential for winds to be even stronger than currently forecast in the Childress vicinity. Current RFTI values up to 3 are forecast near Childress, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the SE TX Panhandle for Friday afternoon considering the very dry fuel states and uncertainty regarding the potential for stronger winds. Elsewhere across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, fire weather conditions on Friday will max out at elevated.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for TXZ025-026-031-032.