textproduct: St. Louis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and tranquil weather is expected through early next week with varying temperatures, generally near or above average after Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Late Wednesday Night) Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Behind this morning's locally unimpactful shortwave trough, upper- level cyclonic flow will prevail through Wednesday above northerly, weak low-level CAA. As a result, a colder airmass will entrench the CWA by Wednesday morning with temperatures cooling into 20s F along/south of the Missouri River and the teens F to the north where clouds are expected to scatter/clear for part of the night. Clouds could increase again Wednesday morning, but will be gradually decreasing through the day, lingering longest across south- central/southwestern IL. For that reason, those areas are forecast to only warm into the upper 20s F with 30s F elsewhere among greater insolation.

Pfahler

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Next Tuesday) Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Thursday through early next week, global model guidance are in general agreement that upper-level northwesterly will prevail across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley with increasing influence from a slowly eastward-progressing ridge originating over the Pacific Northwest. Although there will be several shortwave troughs navigating this flow, confidence is high that dry conditions will continue with 95 percent of ensemble model membership devoid of precipitation in the CWA as the strongest forcing passes across the Great Lakes. Instead, the main impact of these shortwave troughs will be varying temperatures with an underlying general warming trend as the aforementioned ridge nears the region. There is uncertainty in exactly how quickly temperatures warm through this period, especially Friday onward as NBM interquartile temperature ranges span 10+ F through early next week. This spread is mainly to do with the timing of a cold front on Friday and the subsequent wavering of a lingering weak baroclinic zone. That being said, the range of high temperatures is mainly in the 40s and 50s F on Friday then briefly in the 30s and 40s F on Saturday before recovering thereafter. By Tuesday next week, the probabilities of high temperatures above 60 F even reach 30 to 60 percent along/west of the Mississippi River. All things considered, the current snow cover will likely be dwindling if not already gone by next week.

The number of ensemble model members that have rainfall increases around mid-next week with mixed signals for an upper-level cutoff low over the Baja California to eject into the central CONUS, but there is still a large amount of uncertainty at this longer range, especially considering how guidance can struggle with the timing of these ejections.

Pfahler

AVIATION

(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 504 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Dry and VFR conditions with northerly winds at or under 5 kts will prevail through the TAF period.

Jaja

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. IL...None.