textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/601 PM.

A significant southerly swell will cause hazardous surf conditions at the beaches through at least Tuesday. Isolated showers will continue at times through Tuesday. The combination of increasing heat and humidity across the area will cause moderate to major impacts, focused over the coasts and valleys Tuesday through at least Thursday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

07/226 PM.

There is the potential for Heat Advisories to be extended on Friday, however there is high uncertainty for this time period. Ridging is favored to continue for the area on Friday, but 500 mb heights will not be as high as previously, and onshore flow will be stronger thus increasing the cooling seabreeze. By the weekend, near normal temperatures appear likely. Troughing off the coast may reestablish at times, keeping the door open for additional tropical moisture to shuttle into southwest California.

AVIATION

08/0112Z.

At 2355Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. A surface inversion had a top near 1800 feet, with a temperature of 28 degrees C.

Low to moderate confidence in the Central Coast sites where the marine layer coverage is lower certainty. Dense fog is likely at KSMX (60%) and possible (20%) at KSBP. The timing of low CIGs and VSBY could differ +/- 2 hrs from TAF times. In addition, there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Central Coast, and portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura and LA Counties 12Z Tue through 00Z Wed. CIGs and especially VSBY could lower during any storms that occur, with a chance of brief heavy showers.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Stratus CIGs are not expected but there is a slight chance of -SHRA (and a non-zero chance of -TSRA) between 12Z to 00Z. Any showers could produce locally gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rain. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a slight chance of -SHRA (and a non-zero chance of -TSRA) between 12Z to 00Z. Any showers could produce locally gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rain.

MARINE

07/646 AM.

For the waters south of the Channel Islands, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms through this evening. Any thunderstorm that storms could produce local gusty and erratic Gale Force winds and seas, brief heavy downpours, and dangerous cloud-to- surface lightning.

For the Outer Waters, below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected into Wednesday, except for local advisory level gusts around Point Conception each afternoon and evening. Wednesday evening into at least late next week SCA winds are likely much of the time.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday afternoon/eve and a 60% chance for Thursday. Increasing potential for SCA winds Friday into the weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, localized pockets of borderline SCA winds are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds are likely to be a bit stronger and more widespread on Wednesday with a 60% chance of advisories being issued. Focus for SCA winds shifts towards the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday into the weekend.

Tropical moisture will continue to stream over the coastal waters into Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of showers. Besides today (mentioned above), a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the outer waters on Tuesday.

A large south swell is impacting the area, causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors. Breaking waves may impact south harbor entrances, particularly for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (observed at Ventura Harbor).

BEACHES

07/642 AM.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across Ventura and Los Angeles County beaches through this evening. Any thunderstorm that storms could produce local gusty and erratic winds and seas, brief heavy downpours, and dangerous cloud-to- surface lightning.

Significant coastal impacts are expected across Southern California beaches through at least Tuesday. A large southeast to south swell from Hurricane Marie has moved into waters this weekend with swell heights of 5-7 feet and a period around 13 seconds.

High surf conditions are expected on south-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, peaking at 5-8 feet with local sets to 12 feet through today. Potentially life threatening rip currents will continue as well. The highest surf is near Zuma and Malibu Beach as well as Long Beach. The Santa Barbara South Coast will be largely protected from this swell, but there are some small windows of southeasterly and southwesterly energy that could cause boosts in the waves. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in place for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS (a step below high surf advisories) in effect for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Moderate coastal flooding has occurred and will continue around high tides for south facing shores. The actual observed tides have been running about 6 inches above predictions for sometime now. The south swell will likely boost that enhancement. As a result, high tides are expected to reach exceed 7 feet during the evening high tide.

Expect significant beach erosion, flooded sandy beach areas, bike paths, and parking lots, as well as low-lying roads. Of particular concern will be the Alamitos Peninsula area in Long Beach where coastal flooding will potentially cause local damage to structures near time of high tide later today, Other areas of concern the next couple of days include Catalina Island, and Oxnard to Malibu (including Point Mugu). COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES remain in effect for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties where the best combination of tides and waves will occur, but Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties could also see some isolated issues.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-340>358-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 362-366>373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.