textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/312 AM.

One more day of sunny, warm and dry weather. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is expected area wide Friday into early Saturday and again next Monday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

11/312 AM.

Sunday should be dry with partly cloudy skies as a little pop up ridge in between storms moves over the area. There will not be much warming, however, and max temps across the csts/vlys will end up in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

A colder trof will 556 dam hgts will sweep through the state some time during the early Monday to early Tuesday period. The system is moving at a good clip and exact timing will take a few more days to narrow down. Most areas can expect 3 to 6 hours of rain from this system. This system is a little more unstable and showery, but also drier due to how cold it is. Early rainfall estimates call for a tenth to a third of an inch of rain. There is a higher potential for localized heavier rainfall rates under convective showers with this system. Snow levels will be lower than Saturday's system but will still be above 7000 ft. Monday will be a cool day with highs only in the 60s.

Tuesday should be dry much like Sunday as it will be an in between storm day.

More rain is possible either Wed or Thu, but there is considerable mdl confusion on the exact details and timing.

AVIATION

11/1112Z.

At 0828Z at KLAX, there was a surface based weak inversion. The top of the inversion was at 1000 ft with a temp of 26 C.

Moderate confidence in KPRB, KSMX, and KSBP where there is a 20% chance for brief cigs 12Z-16Z.

Good confidence in TAFs for KLAX, KSMO and KLGB with a 10 percent chc of IFR/LIFR cigs 12Z-15Z.

High confidence in TAFs for all remaining sites. KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chc of BKN005 conds 12Z-15Z. Lower confidence in cld fcst aft 12/10Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

11/312 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Seas will remain slightly below SCA levels through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with models indicating potential for wave heights 15 to 20+ ft. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. As for winds, SCA winds are likely near and south of Point Conception Friday night through Saturday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday. SCA level seas could return as early as late Thursday night or Friday, peaking over the weekend. Gusty SCA level winds are possible nearshore Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night through Saturday.

There is concern for a large westerly swell this weekend which could produce dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and Morro Bay harbor entrances.

There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.

BEACHES

10/1026 PM.

A very large, long-period west to northwest swell originating from a strong aleutian low pressure system will arrive at the beaches this weekend. Impacts will be focused along west to northwest facing shores and are expected to peak on Saturday. Significant beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely. Especially in the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous rip currents, along with strong longshore currents, potential sneaker waves and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for south-facing shores.

The highest risk will be along the Central Coast with potential for localized damage to the most vulnerable areas. Oceano Dunes State Park flooding with limited to no vehicle access is likely. If guidance remains consistent, WARNING-level surf is likely and a coastal flood watch may be needed to highlight the moderate potential for WARNING-level coastal flooding.

For LA/VTA west-facing beaches, there is potential for at least advisory level surf and cannot rule out a High Surf WARNING especially for the Ventura coastline.

Coastal hazards are likely to continue well into next week as the northern Pacific remains very active.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.