textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/126 PM.

Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue through this evening. A quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

22/124 PM.

A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail. Winds will most likely remain confined to the mountains and some valleys. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.

AVIATION

23/0524Z.

At 0441Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. Isolated showers roughly through 23/15Z for KSBP, KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB. Mainly VFR CIGs 030-050 with MVFR CIGs as low as 015 under showers. After 24/00Z, VFR CIGs should scatter out.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Isolated shower or two possible through 23/12Z which could bring MVFR CIGs as low as 015-020. Otherwise, VFR CIGs 035-060 through 24/00Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. VFR CIGs & occasionally MVFR through 24/00Z with slight chc for light shower tomorrow afternoon. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

22/743 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty AVDAFDLOX Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely through Friday night. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, then there is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA conds near and SW of Point Conception (PZZ673-676) Monday night through Tuesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds at times through Friday evening. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night, but with a 30% chance of SCA conds Monday night and Tuesday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exceptions will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening. As winds shift to northeast, there is a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica late Friday night through Saturday morning.

Isolated showers continue to affect portions of the waters this evening with coverage diminishing overnight. There is a low (under 10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).