textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

27/217 PM.

Hot and muggy conditions will continue through Friday with a high risk for heat-related illness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with risks of lightning, fire starts, and erratic winds. Temperature and moisture relief will start over the weekend, but will increase again starting Tuesday, with a chance for showers and convection.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

27/215 PM.

Monday looks pretty benign with below normal temperatures, coastal low clouds, and typically breezy mountain winds. After that...anything goes. A disturbance currently forming off the Baja coast will likely form into a Tropical Storm as it moves toward the west to northwest. Another trough will likely form to the north and interact with that tropical moisture in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. About half of the projections result in some of this moisture streaming over southwest California, with about 10 percent of the solutions resulting in rain. About 5% of the earlier projections showed heavy rain with the bulk of the moisture moving over, but that signal is largely gone in the latest projections. With all that stated, the most likely outcome is for some increased mugginess and warmer conditions and that is about it, with intel about the rest of the risks in a clear wait and see holding pattern.

AVIATION

28/0518Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 32 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. For most of the period expecting BKN/OVC150.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN/OVC deck above 10KFT thru at least 28/18Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 7 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN/OVC deck above 10KFT thru at least 28/18Z.

MARINE

27/744 PM.

Through this weekend, high confidence in small craft advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters with short-period choppy seas. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central and into the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially afternoon/eve). Local gusts may approach 35 kt near Point Conception Saturday evening.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue across the coastal waters mainly north and west of Point Conception. There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms which could bring the threat of erratic winds, localized rough seas and cloud-to-surface lightning. For next week, most waters are likely to fall below SCA levels Monday and Tuesday. Increasing chances for SCA conditions later in the week but signal isn't strong, moderate at best.

FIRE WEATHER

27/310 PM.

An extended period of very hot and dry conditions will bring widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast through this weekend. Triple digit temperatures, very deep mixing heights, locally gusty winds, and low humidities (focused Friday) with fuels approaching critical levels will bring the highest risk of large plume dominated fires with rapid spread in the interior mountains and adjacent foothills, as well as the Cuyama Valley, resulting in the Red Flag Warning issuance through Friday. Gustiest winds will likely occur this evening across interior mountain areas. Conditions will generally improve this weekend and into early next week, especially on the coastal side of the mountains. However, increasing onshore flow will still bring elevated to locally brief critical conditions to far interior areas.

Moderate Sundowner winds with hot and dry conditions will likely bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across southern Santa Barbara county through Sunday night, likely peaking Saturday with winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph (locally up to 55 mph near Gaviota and Refugio).

Subtropical moisture associated with former Tropical Storm Iselle will bring a 15 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over the area through Friday with the potential for dry lightning. Highest chances exist Friday over San Luis Obispo County, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 1 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 5 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 340>345. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).