textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/745 PM.

Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible during the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

21/156 PM.

High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome.

At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2".

AVIATION

22/0427Z.

At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. The best chance of low clouds is along the Central Coast, with LIFR conds expected and a chance of VLIFR at KSMX. Further south there is a 20% chance of low clouds for the Ventura and LA Coastal sites. For all coastal sites, the timing of category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

21/755 PM.

High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).