textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/718 PM.

Near to slightly above normal are temperatures expected through Friday, except significant cooling in the mountains and interior areas Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will increase region wide Saturday and Sunday. Strong and gusty northerly winds expected across much of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds likely over the weekend.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

04/215 PM.

Offshore gradients will continue into Sunday but with slowly weakening upper support and a much warmer air mass. Will likely need continue wind advisories in many of the same areas. Temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with highs in 80s for most coast/valley areas, including the Central Coast. There's event about a 40-50% chance of lower 90s across LA/Ventura Counties.

Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week, though light onshore flow is expected to return Tuesday and highs will be back into the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

05/0317Z.

At 0033Z, the marine layer was around 1200 ft deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conds for most TAF sites, except moderate confidence in the Ventura and LA County coastal sites where the flight categories could be off by 1, and the timing could be off by +/- 2 hours. Lower confidence in the wind forecast where LLWS is most likely at KSBA, and possible at KLAX and KSMO. The timing of strongest winds could be off by +/- 3 hours, with the lowest confidence in the LA County coast and valley TAFs.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after 07Z Thursday. There is a 20 percent chance that wind gusts to 25 knots may not occur between 10Z and 16Z, however periods of moderate to strong low- level wind shear and turbulence are possible in this time frame.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected through the period, but there is a 10% chance of MVFR visibilities developing overnight for up to two hours. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after 04Z Thursday. There is a 20 percent chance that wind gusts to 20 knots may not occur between 08Z and 16Z. Periods of moderate to strong low- level wind shear and turbulence are possible between 08Z and 16Z.

MARINE

04/703 PM.

***UPDATE***

Have pushed back the starting time of GALE WARNING for the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange County (PZZ655) to 1 AM.

Small Craft Advisory level N winds will develop during the late evening hours nearshore from Malibu to Palos Verdes. These winds will spread southward and increase to GALE Force after midnight.

***MAIN DISCUSSION***

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in the forecast for seas. Seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially today through Saturday.

Marine weather conditions will deteriorate through tonight with widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and GALE conditions expected through at least Thursday night. GALE WARNINGS remain in effect through Friday morning for some waters.

Another period of strong winds will develop across the region as an offshore flow pattern will set up Friday through Sunday. There is a high to likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level winds between Friday night and Sunday. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of GALE FORCE wind gusts inside the southern California bight, and high (40-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds along the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 87-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 88-349>352-356-357-371>375-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 AM PST Thursday for zones 346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 AM PST Thursday for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).