textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

29/753 PM.

A cooling trend will begin on Monday, with near normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Thursday. Gusty onshore winds will affect the area at times, along with chances of light rain. Weak to moderate offshore winds with warming and drying will follow Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

29/826 PM.

Relatively unsettled weather compared to recent times is expected to continue through Thursday, although rain chances are 10% or less. The continual troughing will keep temperatures on Thursday similar to what we will see Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough will then rapidly be shoved east, and weak ridging will become the main upper feature through at least Saturday, potentially into Sunday.

The ridge will help create some overall warming, but there still exists quite a bit of uncertainty late this week. This stems from the potential for offshore influences Friday and Saturday, and more importantly the magnitude of this offshore flow. The EC and its ensembles favors a rapid swing to a light to moderate offshore event from the north and east Friday and Saturday, whereas the GFS and its ensembles favor weak diurnal flow. This will have a significant impact on the temperatures during the latter part of the extended period, so stayed tuned for more details.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, we can expect this brief "cool" period to be replaced by warmer tempreatures by the end of the week.

AVIATION

29/2324Z.

At 2219Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2200 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, and KVNY.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Expecting mostly VLIFR to LIFR conds tonight, increasing to LIFR to IFR into tomorrow morning for all coastal sites. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. There is a 30% chance for VLIFR conds at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB tonight, best chances once cigs arrive through 13Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours. 30% chance for 1/2SM vsbys once cigs arrive until around 13Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

29/800 PM.

High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Monday, and likely through Wednesday morning across the waters. A weak frontal system will briefly shift winds over the northern waters to the southwest on Tuesday, with light showers at times through Thursday.

There is a growing risk of widespread strong SCA or low-end Gale Force winds over most coastal waters (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) Wednesday night through Friday.

A moderate risk of dense fog with visibility under one nautical mile will continue through Monday evening (focused in the evening to morning hours).

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.