textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/830 PM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind Event will impact SoCal Wednesday morning through Thursday. Cold overnight low temperatures will occur through the work week, coldest Wednesday night into Thursday morning away from the coasts. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and will approach 5-10 degrees above normal in most areas. Highs will peak sometime next week at 10-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

02/202 PM.

The Pacific (and persistent) Ridge will continue to build into the region over the weekend, parking itself and becoming more robust early next week, with 500 mb heights approaching the 95th percentile climatologically. Itll be quite a warm stretch as all indications are that this ridge will continue through the end of next week. Widespread temps in the 70s and potentially the low 80s will be common come Sunday or Monday. Both the EC and GFS indicate weak to moderate offshore flow from the north and east early next week.

AVIATION

03/0222Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer, and no inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, and KSBA, KWJF, and KPMD. At KPRB, KSMX, and KSBA there is a 10 percent chance of IFR-MVFR cigs from 13-16Z Wed.

Low to moderate confidence for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, and KVNY. Arrival of any cigs may be off by 2-3 hours from forecast and may be off by 1 category at times. There is also a 10-20% chance that no cigs form at sites where they are forecasted. Short-lived IFR- MVFR conditions are possible (20% chance) between 12Z-16Z Wed at KBUR and KVNY, and there is a 10% chance of brief dense fog (V/LIFR) conditions across the LA Basin from 13Z-16Z Wed.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in TAF, cigs may for between BKN008-BKN025, with a 20 percent chance of VFR conditions through the period. East winds are possible from 10Z Wed to 20Z Wed, with a 30-40% chance of the east wind component exceeding 6-8kt. Best chance for stronger east winds is around 13Z to 17Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 20% chance of BKN008-BKN025 cigs between 12Z-17Z Wed.

MARINE

02/942 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate to low confidence in the current forecast. The NW swell came in somewhat lower than expected, therefore Small Craft Advisories were canceled for the outer waters south of Point Sal. Some localized winds may gust near SCA levels at times tonight, but should be short-lived. Then winds and seas should mostly remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels Thursday through Saturday, with winds increasing to near SCA levels at times, mainly Friday night and Saturday night.

For the nearshore waters, easterly winds are expected to develop from the Ventura County Coast into the Santa Barbara Channel late morning to early Wednesday afternoon. Localized gusts near SCA levels will be possible through the afternoon hours. Then there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of SCA level winds with short- period seas developing late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Northeast Santa Ana wind will be the strongest near the coastline between Ventura Harbor and Santa Monica. Late Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Freeze Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones 343-344. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 AM PST Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).