textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

03/941 PM.

Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. The winds and temperatures will peak Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

03/210 PM.

Ensemble solutions continue to favor dry conditions this weekend into at least Monday as a positively tilted ridge replaces the weak trough over California. Gradients are expected to trend slightly offshore Saturday and Sunday and this combined with the ridging over the state should lead to at least a few degrees of warming in most areas, though highs generally topping out in the 70s.

However, this feature too will rather quickly be replaced by a stronger upper level trough and low pressure system finally nudging out the month-long ridge along the West coast. This will bring a return to much cooler temperatures, mostly low to mid 60s that should continue through the week. Rain chances start as early as Monday night along the Central Coast as the first of a couple frontal systems come through California next week. However, rain chances are higher later Tuesday into Wednesday as a stronger upper low approaches. Ensembles are still just indicating light amounts of rain through the end of next week, mostly under a a half inch.

AVIATION

04/0545Z.

At 0500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for 06Z TAF Package.

Moderate confidence in winds.

Light LLWS and Turbulence possible over and near mountainous terrain focused across Los Angeles & Ventura counties thru pd.

NE-E winds (15-20 kt) may surface thru 18Z Wed & again after 00Z Thursday at KSBP.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through 06Z Thursday, moderate confidence thereafter.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc NE-E winds of 15-20 kt to surface between 12Z and 00Z Thursday.

MARINE

03/943 PM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Offshore northeast winds will develop each morning through Thursday near Morro Bay, generally below SCA levels. There is a 40-50% chance for localized east wind gusts near SCA levels around the Channel Islands Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Winds Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon are trending stronger, with a 40% chance of SCA level easterly winds north of the Channel Islands. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be likely Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Santa Ana NE winds late tonight into Wednesday afternoon, however, it may need to be extended through Thursday morning. East to northeast SCA level winds are expected from Ventura south to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, as well as potentially through the San Pedro Channel (less confidence in this area though) for the late night to morning-late afternoon hours through Thursday. Additionally, localized Gale Force wind gusts will be likely nearshore below mountain canyons and passes, with a 30-40% chance of extending north to Ventura and out to Anacapa Island late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, conds will remain below advisory levels until northwest winds potentially increase to SCA levels across the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-358-369-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-362-370. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 375-376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).