textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/111 PM.

Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night and morning. Some very light drizzle is possible each morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal for the next couple of days before a warming trend takes hold on Thursday. Many valley locations will warm into the 90s by early next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

30/111 PM.

Temperatures will continue warming to within a few degrees on either side of normal on Saturday. While 90 degree highs won't be widespread, probabilities of reaching 90 degrees in our valleys will increase through the middle of next week. The National Blend indicates over a 90% chance of 90 plus degrees across the Antelope Valley on the 4th while 50% to 80% chance across the San Luis Obispo Valley and localized valleys elsewhere. Ensembles indicate a pattern change during the weekend, with a ridge of high pressure to the southwest and a PacNW low to the northwest. Ensembles are still trying to sort out the upper level evolution early next week, now showing the ridge being shunted further east as heights fall and the trough takes over our weather pattern. Temperatures further northwest will remain fairly stable late weekend into the first part of next week while areas further east, like the Antelope Valley and Foothills, will continue to warm under the influence of the ridge.

AVIATION

30/2316Z.

At 2144Z at KLAX, there were multiple cloud decks at 1500 ft and 3800 ft, with an inversion at 6000 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, with arrival and clearing times of low clouds +/- 2 hours of forecast. 20% chance for KPRB to remain IFR or higher. 20% chance for brief IFR cigs at KSBP/KSMX tonight, Otherwise, high confidence in MVFR to VFR conditions for all other terminals. Gusty onshore winds will once again become common around 01/20Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs may arrive as early as 03Z. Transition to VFR could be 19Z-23Z, with VFR cigs likely. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN015 cigs 10Z-16Z. High confidence in any easterly wind staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs may arrive as early as 03Z. Transition to VFR could be 18Z-23Z, lower confidence based on clearing trends the last couple of days.

MARINE

30/820 PM.

Gusty northwest winds 20-25 knots will be common near the western Channel Islands and south to San Nicolas Island each afternoon and evening through Independene Day weekend, with a 30-50 percent chance for Small Craft Advisories (SCA) to be needed each day through the week. Highest chances exist Thursday and Friday. Then chances for more widespread SCA level winds increase Sunday.

Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Fairly seasnonal west to northwest wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be common nearshore each afternoon and evening through Independence Day as well.

All waters will see short-period choppy seas through the period.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.