textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/922 AM.

Mostly clear skies are expected through Tuesday with a warming trend. A 3 day Santa Ana wind event will start Sunday. It will peak on Monday with strong and gusty winds likely. The winds will not be as strong Sunday and Tuesday. Clouds will increase and a chance of rain will develop Wednesday. The new year will likely start off with quite a bit of rain.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

28/403 AM.

The GFS, ECMWF/AI and their ensembles indicate another round of wet weather on New Years Eve and New Years Day. All guidance has trended a bit faster and amounts have increased somewhat as well. The GFS per usual is playing catchup. Thus, leaning more towards the euro solutions. Although not set in stone, general thoughts are .5 to 1.5 inches for coasts/valleys and 1.5 to 2.5 inches for foothills with somewhat less expected across the interior areas. Do not anticipate any significant hydrologic issues, but the Rose Parade looks to be wet. Snow levels are forecasted to remain above 8000 feet through Thursday.

A trough swings in from the west on Friday and Saturday. Current thinking is that this system will bring generally 0.25 to 1 inch with favored mtn areas across SLO county up to 1.5 inches. Snow levels will drop in the 6000 to 7500 foot range, so additional snowfall for resorts is possible. This is still fairly far out so stay tuned to the National Weather Service as the forecast is subject to change.

AVIATION

28/1548Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees Celsius.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as CAVU conditions are expected at all sites. Through the period, offshore winds will increase across the area, so there could be LGT-MDT turbulence across the mountains and foothills overnight and Monday morning.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-15% chance of easterly winds around 8 knots after 14Z.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. Increasing offshore flow could generate some LGT turbulence around the area after 14Z.

MARINE

28/748 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across most of the Outer Waters. The only exception will be the water south of the Channel Islands where there is a 60-70% of SCA level northeast winds this evening into Monday evening.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds tonight through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, there is a 70-90% chance of SCA level northeast winds from around Point Mugu down to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel with a 50-70% chance of Gale force winds this evening through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, today through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM to 10 PM PST this evening for zones 369-375-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch remains in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon for zones 369-375-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).