textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/131 PM.

Cooler conditions are expected through at least Tuesday with some areas of morning low clouds and fog. A very slow warming trend is expected later in the week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

30/127 PM.

Overall a very quiet 4-7 period ending next Saturday with temperatures in most areas either near or slightly below normal. Maybe a very minor (1-2 degree) warming trend Thu through Sat but in general much improved from the last week.

Still some major concerns for next week with a fair amount of ensemble and deterministic solutions indicating the potential for a tropical system to move up the coast from Baja into southern California. By next Sunday the average of all the ensemble member PW's is 1.5" with several individual members over 2". Still a lot of time for adjustments to the track but certainly there is the potential for heavy rain, strong south swells, and overall tropical conditions by next Sunday.

AVIATION

30/1819Z.

At 1748Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep with a weak inversion up to 2600 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees C.

Fair confidence in KSBP and KSMX TAFs, with a 20% chance for VLIFR conds from 10Z-16Z Mon.

Moderate to high confidence in KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at remaining sites. Less than 10% chance for IFR conds for KOXR and KCMA 13Z-17Z Mon.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 09Z Mon, then moderate confidence. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period. Otherwise, BKN008-012 CIGs could arrive as early as 09Z Mon. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

30/116 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds (20-30 knots) and steep, choppy seas for the outer waters through late tonight. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into the Santa Barbara Channel today, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Local wind gusts may approach 35 knots near Point Conception through tonight. Conditions are expected to improve Monday with only local SCA level wind gusts near Point Conception Monday and Tuesday. Chances for more widespread SCA winds increase Wednesday into the remainder of the week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).