textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/205 AM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through this week, with abnormally warm and dry conditions. A trend towards more typical weather conditions is expected early next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

13/205 AM.

For the extended, deterministic models, and their respective ensembles, remain on the same synoptic page. At upper levels, ridge will gradually weaken through the period. At the surface, offshore gradients will continue through the period, although they will gradually weaken from day-to-day.

Forecast-wise, dry weather will continue through the upcoming weekend. For most areas, skies will remain mostly clear. However, there is a chance for a return of some marine layer stratus/fog by Monday morning, but confidence in that forecast is low at this time. As for winds, do not anticipate anything more than continued weak offshore winds, remaining below advisory levels. As for temperatures, will anticipate a slow and gradual cooling trend through Monday, but temperatures will still remain several degrees above normal.

As for rain chances, models are still indicating some potential for a return of some rain by the middle of next week. However, confidence in any rain remains low at this time.

AVIATION

13/1132Z.

At 0714Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1000 ft and a temperature of 21 C. Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. VFR conditions to dominate the period. Moderate confidence in winds for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR (wind gusts +/- 10kt from fcst), elsewhere high confidence.

Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to moderate turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain, focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Additionally, most likely during overnight through morning timeframe.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions thru forecast pd. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions thru forecast pd. Best chc (15%) for NE winds gusts 15-20kt to sfc after 00Z Wed. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely through the period.

MARINE

13/125 AM.

The main focus across our coastal waters this week is Gusty NE winds nearshore across portions of the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange, and SLO county coasts. These winds will create choppy seas, especially at their peak magnitude in the early morning to early afternoon hours.

***Details***

Ventura/Los Angeles Coasts: 15-25 kts winds are expected from a narrow corridor from Channel Islands Harbor to Malibu extending out to Santa Cruz/Anacapa Islands at times- Most likely Today and Thursday. Hazardous choppy seas are most likely across these waters. Considering magnitude of winds and spatial coverage there is a 30% chc of Small Craft Advisory issuance on any given day (PZZ650/655). These winds could persist in some fashion into the weekend.

Avalon and Two Harbors: There is a 15% chance of NE wind gusts of 15-20 kts to reach Avalon and less than 10% chc for Two Harbors through early Saturday morning.

SLO County Coasts: 15-20 kt winds are likely during the night through morning timeframe nearshore Cayucos to Morro Bay through Wednesday. Likely strongest Wednesday morning with 25% chc of reaching 25 kts.

Otherwise and elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the forecast period.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.