textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/227 AM.

It will be cooler today. Widespread rain will develop Wednesday and continue into Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storms wake.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

20/227 AM.

As it often happens east Pac ridging will follow on the heals of the upper low. Dry NNW flow will move into the state on Friday. In addition offshore flow from north will develop at the sfc. This will lead to some close to advisory wind gusts through the northerly oriented passes and canyons. Skies will turn sunny and this along with rising hgts will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the area.

A low level Santa Ana will develop Saturday and continue through Monday. There will only be 2 to 4 mb offshore flow and marginal upper level support so winds may even stay under advisory level - it will certainly be nothing like last Friday's wind event. Look for another 3 to 6 degrees of warming on Saturday with little change on Sunday and Monday. Even with the warming almost all max temps across the csts and vly will only reach into the 70s.

AVIATION

20/0928Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1800 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in IFR-MVFR conds at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours with CIG height +/- 200 ft of TAF. There is a 25% chance for no low clouds.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA. There is a 15% chance for brief IFR-MVFR conds 20/12Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance for no low clouds. There is a 30% chc of lower cigs of OVC008. Low clouds may arrive as early as 11Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for brief BKN008 conds 20/13Z-17Z.

MARINE

20/216 AM.

Relatively quiet conditions are expected across the waters today, then a storm system will move into the coastal waters as early as late this evening. This system will impact the area through Thursday. While at this point it doesn't appear as though it will bring significant winds, there will likely be some enhanced southerly flow Wednesday, which may require SCAs to be issued (including nearshore). In addition to the enhanced southerly flow, boaters can expect rain and a chance of thunderstorms and isolated waterspouts. With any thunderstorm there is the threat of lightning, gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and choppy seas. As the system leaves the area Thursday, fairly widespread west to northwest SCA winds will impact much of the coastal waters, creating steep, choppy wind waves.

Then a weak to locally moderate Santa Ana Wind event is likely this weekend, with some localized SCA level gusts possible nearshore in favored areas nearshore adjacent to Ventura and LA Counties.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).