textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/1217 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Today will be the warmest day of the next seven with a slow cooling trend starting Friday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

15/1225 AM.

Offshore flow and weak ridging will continue over the state through the xtnd period, although by Wednesday some changes begin to occur. The offshore push should not be powerful enough to keep marine layer stratus away from the coasts where it might generate some dense fog later at night through the early morning. The weakening offshore flow and lowering of hgts will contribute to a continuous cool trend with Sunday's max temps across the csts/vlys falling from the 70s to lower 80s to the Mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday. Max temps will be near normal by Wednesday.

The GFS deterministic run brings a fully formed 552 dam upper low to the area Friday, while the EC only has dry fast moving NW flow. The AI mdls and ensembles are much less impressive and while there is a high chc of a pattern change - the chc of an actual rain event remains under 40 percent.

AVIATION

15/1155Z.

At 10Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions everywhere through at least this evening. Small chances of IFR or lower conditions at immediate coast Friday morning.

At KVNY KCMA KOXR, there is a moderate risk of gusts 20-30 knots and/or LLWS 10-20 knots. Lower than normal confidence however. High confidence in relatively light winds (under 15 knots) at all other airports.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR through at least Friday, and any east wind component will be 6 knots or less.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least Friday. Less than 20% chance of NE winds 15+ knots surfacing, but LLWS 10-15 knots likely at times.

MARINE

15/153 AM.

Low confidence on winds from Ventura through Santa Monica from now through Friday. Computer projections continue to show much stronger NE winds compared to what is being observed. As such, winds could be 10 to 15 knots at their peak or 15 to 25 knots. Kept the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) going but delayed it for a few hours, but the likelihood of it needed to be all together cancelled is growing. Otherwise and elsewhere, high confidence in relatively light winds through the weekend.

A long period west to northwest swell is filling in the region, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 88-358-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).