textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/248 AM.

Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

30/1214 PM.

For the extended, models start out in good agreement on Tuesday, but then start to diverge noticeably Wednesday through Friday. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will still be over the area with weak offshore surface flow. So, will expect clear skies, comfortable temperatures (upper 60s and 70s) and some weak offshore winds.

For the Wednesday through Friday time period, forecast confidence wanes dramatically. This decrease in forecast confidence is due to noticeable uncertainties in the track of a couple of upper lows. At this time, there is high confidence in a gradual cooling trend through this period. However, confidence in rain potential is very low. The GFS family keeps the area dry while the ECMWF family indicates the potential for some shower activity across the area. If any shower activity should develop, it would likely be on the light side in terms of amounts. So, the forecast will have some slight chance POPs for some areas through this period with a hope of more model agreement in future runs.

AVIATION

30/1500Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Off and on again MVFR-VFR ceilings and -SHRA expected through Saturday morning. While confidence is low on timing, moderate confidence that most of the period will be VFR and dry with ceilings not lowering to IFR or below.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings being common through 18Z Saturday, moderate confidence of ceiling not lowering below MVFR, low confidence in timing of -SHRA and MVFR ceilings. East winds likely Saturday 10-17Z, with a 20% chance of reaching 8-10 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings being common through 18Z Saturday, moderate confidence of ceiling not lowering below MVFR, low confidence in timing of -SHRA and MVFR ceilings.

MARINE

30/729 AM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday evening, except for a 20% chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers on Saturday. SCA-level NW winds likely to form Saturday Night and Sunday from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, including the western Santa Barbara Channel. NE winds under SCA-levels likely to follow on Monday.

BEACHES

30/730 AM.

High tides will continue to lower into early next week. The Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through early this afternoon, but as tides lower, impacts should also lower in severity and coverage.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.