textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/949 PM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend with periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. The warmest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday and Sunday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

05/1215 AM.

Not much happening in the days 4 to 7 time frame. On Sunday the ridge will remain overhead with 583 dam hgts but the offshore flow will decrease. There will still be some offshore winds but they will fall short of advisory levels. This will allow an earlier sea breeze and most cst vly locations will cool a few degrees.

The ridge and offshore flow will continue to weaken on Monday and this will lead to 2 to 4 degrees of cooling with no wind issues. Max temps across the csts/vlys will mostly be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Despite the cooling max temps will still be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Weak westerly flow moves in overhead on Tuesday. The offshore flow from the east will be weaker still and will actually turn onshore in the afternoon. It will be an unremarkable day 2 or 3 degrees cooler than Monday, but still above normal.

Change is afoot on Wed - though there is not the best mdl agreement. A large storm system will begin to approach the west coast. There will either be a weak ridge or weak SW flow overhead. The weather actually will not be that different as the system will still be fairly far off. Perhaps a little cloudy and likely a few more degrees cooling.

All mdls deterministic, AI and ensemble have differing ideas on the exact details of the forecast for the Thu to Sun (12th to 15th) time period. But all mdls agree that it will be wet sometime in that period. Right now it looks like about a half inch of rain fall with a 30 percent chc of it being a 1 inch storm. Peering even further out it looks like the rain window may stay open into the week of the 16th to 20th. This forecast will be refined more and more as time draws nearer.

AVIATION

05/1032Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no inversion and no marine layer.

High confidence in all CAVU TAFs except for a 10% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB between 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE

05/226 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will prevail. For Saturday and Sunday, SCA level seas are expected to continue with winds dropping below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, and seas will approach SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today, except for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Friday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy, short- period, seas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 AM PST this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).