textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/746 PM.

Showers with a chance of thunderstorms will continue into Thursday. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm's wake by the weekend for dry and warmer conditions.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

21/1021 PM.

A low grade Santa Ana event will continue into next week continuing the dry and warmer pattern. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet weather around Halloween.

AVIATION

22/0558Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 06Z TAF package. Showers and thunderstorms at times with MVFR-IFR conditions.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Conditions should mostly remain VFR with MVFR possible at times. Isolated to scattered showers likely through the period. Low chance of thunderstorm 10-15%. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts through 23/06Z, then low chance (20%) afterwards.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Isolated to scattered showers likely through the period. Mostly MVFR to low VFR expected. IFR conditions possible under cells. There is a 10%-20% chance of TSRA for much of the fcst period.

MARINE

21/941 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely at times before becoming winds shift more to NW becoming more widespread on Friday. For Saturday through Monday morning, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. S to SE winds could gusty to SCA at times. From Thursday morning through monday, For Thursday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late Friday afternoon and evening.

Through Thursday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all of the coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 348>353-362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).