textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/854 AM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

15/221 AM.

The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees.

No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of rain.

AVIATION

15/1505Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees Celsius.

For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop at KLAX, KSMO and KLGB. Also, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KSMX after 08Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. If CIG/VSBY restrictions do develop, timing of return could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

15/805 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in this same area Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).