textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

06/322 AM.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through at least early next week as a series of low pressure systems move through the region. Low clouds and fog will cover most of the coast and valley locations through at least mid morning, clearing to near the beaches each afternoon. A warming trend is expected later next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

06/322 AM.

Ridging is expected to build in from the west starting Tuesday. Onshore flow in general is expected to persist through the fcst period. About 15% of ECWMF members show light to moderate offshore flow Wednesday through Friday (LAX-DAG). Not buying these solutions as they are unfavorable climatologically. By the end of the week, most areas should be at least slightly above normal. NBM probs show 10-15% chance of reaching 100F across Antelope valley Thursday and Friday. 10-20% chance of reaching 90F Wednesday through Friday across San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys.

There is a 60% chance of advisory level sundowners Tuesday. Weak northerly flow indicated by SBA-BFL ECWMF projections would likely result in the strongest winds focused a bit eastward (Refugio area). Low confidence in wednesday due to large spread in guidance, but leaning towards less of a chance, and even lower Thursday into Friday.

LAX-BFL is projected to decrease quickly from 3-4mb Monday evening to negative 2 to -3mb Tuesday morning. If this occurs, there is a likely (60% chc) of advisory level NW-N winds across the I-5 corridor Tues into Wednesday morning. This trend is expected to reverse Wednesday into Friday (onshore) which could result in advisory winds across the Antelope Valley, but confidence is fairly low at this time.

AVIATION

06/1103Z.

At 0755Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 2100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs near 020 threshold for most of fcst period. There is a 30-40% chance that CIGs never clear. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

06/848 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance of GALE force winds across PZZ670/673 today and tonight and GALE WARNINGs are in effect for these areas. From Sunday through Wednesday, there will be a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through this morning, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. From this afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds are expected during the afternoon and evening hours, along with seas approaching SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).