textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/659 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through the end of next week with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

22/202 PM.

Temperatures will continue to trend upward through Thanksgiving day as light to moderate offshore flow continues. At this time the chances for strong Santa Ana winds are very low as there is little upper support. And in fact the current ensembles are indicating below advisory level winds at most next week. So like so many Thanksgivings in southern California, the most likely outcome is a mild to warm day across the area with clear skies, unlimited visibilities, and lots of turkey.

Going into next weekend models continue trend farther inland with the next upper level trough. What at one point looked like another strong storm for California has turned much drier as the models have shifted the storm's trajectory farther east. There are still a few ensemble solutions hanging onto rain chances but each run seems to trend drier.

AVIATION

23/0533Z.

At 0454Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak surfaced based inversion with a top at 500 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

Overall, high confidence in the 06Z TAF package. There is a 30-40% chc of no LIFR conditions overnight at KPRB. Slight chance for LIFR conditions at KSMX after 02Z Monday.

KLAX...High confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 15% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8 kts from 12Z to 17Z Sunday. IFR CIGs around 008 possible (60% chc) after 06Z Monday, with arrival times (+/- 3 hours) from current forecast if occurs.

KBUR...High confidence in the 06Z TAF. 15-20kt winds may SFC through 09Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

22/809 PM.

Across the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with wind gusts approaching SCA levels at times (especially S of pt. Conception) is expected through the weekend. SCA conditions may linger through mid-week for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate chances for a combination of SCA winds and seas to return next weekend.

Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should remain below advisory levels through the week. However, there is a 20% chance of local advisory level NE winds nearshore from Ventura to Point Dume on Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).