textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

06/223 AM.

A warming and drying trend will begin today and continue through at least early next week. During the peak of the heat on Mothers Day and next Monday, high temperatures are expected to be in the 80s and 90s, with a possibility of 100 degrees in the warmest valleys.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

06/333 AM.

The high is expected to remain over the West coast at least through next Tuesday, with 500mb heights reaching 590dam, which is between the 97th and 99th percentiles, indicating a very rare event. The hottest days will be on Mother's Day and Monday. During those peak heat days most valleys will be in the 90s with a 15-30% chance of reaching 100 in the western San Fernando Valley and the interior parts of San Luis Obispo County. These temperatures would be at least 20 degrees above normal.

Closer to coast temperatures will not be as hot but still at least 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Downtown LA has about a 30% chance of reaching 90 on the hottest days.

Given the highly anomalous temperatures over multiple days there is a chance that heat hazards will eventually be needed in some areas, at least for the two hottest days Sunday and Monday. That decision will likely happen either Friday or Saturday.

AVIATION

06/1705Z.

At 1547Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4800 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Generally expecting VFR conditions. Except for LIFR CIGs possible at KSMX from 06Z-15Z (60%) and KSBP from 06Z-12Z (30%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 15% chance CIGs around BKN006 develop 06/10Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no wind issues are expected.

MARINE

06/722 AM.

From Wednesday through Saturday, SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day and will peak Friday afternoon and evening. These winds are likely to reach 20 to 30 kts across the outer waters. There is about a 15% chance of GALE Force winds during this timeframe. SCA level winds are also likely at times across the nearshore waters along the Central coast and into at least western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially across the outer waters - reaching 10 feet by Friday then peaking up to 11 feet Friday night through Saturday night.

Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).