textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/1124 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

15/155 PM.

There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the 80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas.

The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible outcome as well.

AVIATION

16/0640Z.

At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through 17Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high confidence in TAFs.

There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions develop between 07Z-16Z Thursday at KSMX (30%) and KPRB (20%), and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%).

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, and again after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-015 conds between 07Z-16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 5 kt 10-15Z each morning.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

15/805 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Thursday afternoon thru Thursday night, there is a 50-60% chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued for all Outer water zones. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From now through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening. For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).