textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/1239 AM.

Warm but below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with expanding coastal morning low clouds. Temperatures are likely to increase towards the end of the week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

14/145 PM.

High pressure over the southeastern states will expand to the west Thursday through Saturday, but that expansion will battle a small yet potent closed low spinning north of southwest California. It seems like the vast majority of projections have settled on a pattern that will bring warming to the area, but the low will limit the high pressure expansion and the resulting warming. Some moderate northwest winds over Santa Barbara County, along with the higher pressure aloft will likely reduce the cooling effects of the marine layer. With all that in consideration, look for highs to bump up 5-ish degrees and settle in the 80s to lower 90s by Friday, which is right about normal for this time of the year. Heat Advisories or warnings look unlikely. The tropical storm train off western Mexico will remain active, but not seeing any significant moisture surge signals into California.

A weak likely moisture starved trough may approach the region Sunday or Monday, bringing increasing mid to high clouds and kick off a slow cooling trend with increased marine layer influence.

AVIATION

14/2327Z.

At 2236Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAF for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

High confidence in organized marine layer south of Point conception with MVFR conds at all sites. CIGs are expected to deepen with increasing southeast winds (6-12 kts), along with a decent chance for -DZ due to coastal eddy. Arrival times should be accurate within +/- 2 hours of current fcst, while clearing times +/- 3 hours.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Arrival times of MVFR CIGs 012 expected to arrive around 15/04Z (+/- 2 hours), deepening to near 2,000 ft threshold 15/10-15Z. Lower confidence on clearing, with a 30% chance CIGs persist or briefly clear than return through the forecast period. Southeast winds will likely reach or exceed 8 knots tonight into Tuesday morning, best chances 10Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs likely between 05Z-08Z. Southeast winds up to 7 kt likely to continue all night into the morning before switching due south around noontime.

MARINE

14/137 PM.

High confidence that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and in some areas seas will continue through late tonight into early tomorrow morning over the Outer Waters. Moderate confidence in low end SCA conditions for the nearshore Central Coast waters this afternoon, and locally in the western Santa Barbara Channel. High confidence in relatively light winds with no SCA conditions over the area Tuesday through Thursday morning, with a return of normal Outer Waters (and potentially Santa Barbara Channel) northwest SCA winds for Thursday night into the weekend. These winds will generate a building short period swell over all waters.

Stronger than usual southeast winds are likely south of Point Conception tonight through Tuesday morning, however. While SCAs are not expected, local gusts 15-20 knots possible between the islands.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).