textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

25/1249 AM.

Two more impulses will move through the area today and Friday and will bring periods of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. The potential for flooding will be high during this period. Showers are expected to pater off by late Friday evening with dry and warmer weather returning for the rest of the weekend through the middle of next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

25/221 PM.

Mdls are in much better (but not perfect) agreement for the Sunday through Tuesday period. Both the EC and GFS as well as most of their ensemble members now show some sort of upper ridge nosing in from the west and decent (4 to 6 mb) offshore flow developing from both the north and east. Low end advisories are possible each day. Skies will be mostly clear and the sunshine and offshore flow will team up 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees or warming each day. By Tuesday max temps across the csts and vlys will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s (mostly 3 to 6 degrees over normal)

Not much agreement on Wednesday but about 20 percent of the ensembles show some rain. A better chc of will develop next Thursday. Right now it looks like that any rain that does come from this system will be on the light side.

AVIATION

26/0421Z.

Incoming moisture from the deep south to southwesterly flow will continue to bring rainfall into SoCal. However, the most intense part of the rainfall will be slowly moving south, with the worst of it already done in the northern airports KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX. By 26/15Z the intense precipitation will be south of KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA. The more intense precipitation will finally reach KVNY and KBUR from 26/15Z to 26/18Z. KLAX and KSMO appear to dodge heavy precipitation, but will still be threatened with marginal VFR conditions, just like very airdrome. However solid improvement above VFR for the northern airports is in place around 26/18Z, and for KSMO and KLAX southward shortly after 26/00Z.

Wind will for KLAX get to southeasterly during the overnight hours, but otherwise will be from the south and much lighter than Christmas Day was. by 2515Z, wind should shift to southwest and remain onshore flow through the afternoon. KBUR has similar timing and similarly light wind.

MARINE

25/217 PM.

A winter storm will continue through Friday and will bring hazardous marine conditions including gusty winds, rough short- period seas, heavy rain, and a chance for thunderstorms.

Gusty south winds to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels will affect the waters through Friday morning. The outer waters will also see SCA level seas Fri through Sat.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms through Friday, which will bring a threat of erratic gusty winds, heavy downpours, cloud-to-water lightning and a small chance of waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch now in effect through Friday afternoon for zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).