textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

03/239 AM.

Significant warming is expected today through Sunday as gusty Santa Ana winds return. Winds will be strongest Friday and Saturday across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A cooling trend will begin Monday with temperatures back to near normal around mid week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

03/237 AM.

On Monday the ridge flattens out and onshore flow returns. Its likely that marine layer stratus will return to the coasts and some of the lower vlys. The marine layer and strong onshore flow will knock 5 to 10 degrees off of the max temps across the csts and vlys.

Slight offshore trends will lead to a little less marine layer and 1 or 2 degrees of warming on Tuesday.

On Wednesday the ridge will flatten further as a trof approaches from the west. Onshore flow will increase as will the clouds as mid levels moisture streams in. Max temps nose dive 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees and will end up in the upper 60s and 70s across the csts/vlys.

The mdls and ensembles are all over the place on the Thursday and Friday forecast. There is a consensus that some energy will arrive but the amount and location and timing differs greatly. Most solutions show low amounts but there are a few solutions that are over a half inch. Right now the fcst eases into it with cloudy and cooler days with a slight chc of light rain. This fcst will surely evolve over the course of time.

AVIATION

03/0654Z.

At 0532Z at KLAX...there was no marine layer or marine inversion.

Overall...high confidence in CAVU TAFs. Good confidence in gusty north to northeast winds, especially for KOXR, KCMA, KBUR and KVNY. Light LLWS and wind shear will be likely across the foothills and mountains.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. There is a 10% chance of an easterly wind component near 8 knots 15Z-21Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Ocnl light LLWS and turbulence around the airfield 15Z-22Z.

MARINE

03/238 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this morning, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas. From this afternoon through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, especially over the southern zones from west of Point Conception down to San Nicolas Island (PZZ673-676).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica today, with winds remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For tonight and Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level W-NW winds, mainly across western portions.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT early this morning for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).