textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/304 AM.

It will be mostly dry Saturday with cooler than normal temperatures. Moderate rain and a chance of thunderstorms will likely sweep through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Scattered shower activity is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Dry and warmer weather is expected the rest of next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

11/256 AM.

Dry and warmer conditions will persist through the rest of the week. There will be weak ridging on Tuesday followed by dry NW flow on Wednesday. A dry trof moves through the state on Thursday. There is a bit of disagreement on the Friday upper level pattern with a troffier EC solution and a flatter GFS fcst. At the sfc there will be weak offshore flow from the N and weak to moderate onshore flow to the east. Can't rule out some night through morning low clouds esp Thu and Fri.

After the chilly start to the week there will be 3 to 6 degrees of warming on Tue, followed by and additional 1 to 3 degrees on Wed. Looking for little change in temps on Thu. The current forecast calls for more warming on Friday, but this really depends on what mdl solution verifies best.

AVIATION

11/1003Z.

At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2200 ft with a temperature of 15 C.

Good confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. SCT-BKN conds with layers around 015, 025 and 035 will likely continue through the morning. Better confidence in mostly VFR conds in the afternoon KSBA and points south.

A cold front will affect all terminals this evening and overnight. There is good confidence in rain timing. Low confidence in cig/vis fcst when the rain is occuring.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN conds with layers around 015, 025 and 035 are likely through 18Z. Good confidence in CIGS AOA 100 18Z-02Z. Lower confidence after 02Z with lower cigs possible. Good confidence in -RA after 09Z. The rain will bring variable cig/vis along with east winds. There will be a 25 percent chc of a TSTM 11Z-16Z. No significant east wind component expected through 08Z then increasing chances of at least a 10 kt east wind component.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN conds with layers around 015, 025 and 035 are likely through 18Z. Good confidence in CIGS AOA 100 18Z-02Z. Lower confidence after 07Z with lower cigs possible. Good confidence in -RA after 09Z. The rain will bring variable cig/vis. There will be a 25 percent chc of a TSTM 11Z-16Z.

MARINE

11/304 AM.

A weak cold front will move across the coastal waters through this morning bringing showers and a slight chance for a thunderstorm north of Point Conception.

A second system will arrive late this afternoon into Sunday. This front will be stronger, bring Small Craft level southerly winds, showers and a chance for thunderstorms across all waters. Potential hazards include: heavy downpours, dangerous cloud to ocean lightning, small hail, and erratic gusty winds. Boaters, especially those with small vessels should avoid these conditions.

Seas will build on Sunday to near 10 feet across the Outer Waters and to 5-7 feet across the Inner Waters. Additionally Small Craft level west to northwest winds are likely for all the waters Monday afternoon and night. Then northwest SCA winds are possible each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Friday across the outer waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for zones 378>380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).