textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

08/146 PM.

Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week. Some breezy northeast winds are expected at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early the next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

08/149 PM.

Starting Thursday, onshore flow will increase and 500 mb heights are favored to plummet as a trough approaches the region. Temperatures are expected to fall to near normal by Friday with widespread highs in the the 70s.

As for the potential upcoming storm, there is a high likelihood of some amount of rain between the 12th and the 17th (and possibly beyond). Forecast models are struggling to resolve how the broad ridge this week will break down, allowing for one or more troughs of low pressure to shuttle moisture and instability into the region. There is the chance for a significant storm system with periods of heavy rainfall (1+ inches possible for the storm total rainfall), though some model solutions indicate minimal rain totals. Forecast model trends have been pushing the bulk of rain further out in time, and rain totals have generally been trending slightly higher with each update. Clarity on the time period when rain will be the most likely is increasing, with latest models runs highlighting Sunday into the following Tuesday (Nov 15-17th). Please keep following the forecasts for future updates.

AVIATION

08/1821Z.

At 1756Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in TAFs, except low to moderate confidence in KSMX TAF 05Z-15Z Mon. There is a 40% chance of VLIFR conds at KSMX between 05Z and 15Z Monday, and CIGs may only come in for a couple hours.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

08/814 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and large seas of 10+ feet. For Wednesday and Thursday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas today, mainly across the extreme western portion of the zone. For this evening through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas and a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds. For Wednesday and Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds nearshore from Point Mugu to Santa Monica this morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday.

BEACHES

08/223 AM.

High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday between 7.2 to 7.6 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell continues to build into the area and is forecast to peak on Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, listen to advice from your local officials.

With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks on Monday. This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year.

First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.

Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and Ventura on the southern coasts, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.

For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Monday, though one or both advisories may need to be extended through the week. For the Ventura County Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning, with conditions peaking Monday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for LA County Coast/Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).