textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/108 AM.

Cooler than normal temperatures and widespread marine layer clouds will continue through the weekend. There is a low chance of showers/thunderstorms through this afternoon.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

13/104 AM.

The extended period will generally feature rather benign sensible weather relative to the time of year. The upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern United States will push the trough to the west. 500 mb heights will increase to around 592-594 dam with dry southwest flow aloft. 500 mb heights are projected to peak Tuesday/Wednesday. Additionally, onshore flow is expected to weaken some to some, with the LAX-BFL pressure gradient even forecast to become negative by next week.

Marine layer clouds will shrink each day with increasing 500 mb heights and weakening onshore flow, likely retreating to just the coastal areas by early next week. By Tuesday, increasing northwest flow will likely wipe out the marine layer from southern Santa Barbara County and potentially Ventura County.

With 500 mb heights increasing, onshore flow weakening, and marine layer coverage shrinking, temperatures will climb to near normal for mid-August. The more noticeable increase in temperatures will be across the valleys and interior since most coastal areas will still be under marine influences.

Increasing northwest flow next week will likely bringing gusty winds in the afternoon through late evening hours to Southwestern Santa Barbara County as well as the interior mountains, especially along the I-5 through the Grapevine.

AVIATION

13/1049Z.

At 0922Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 5000 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of arrival/clearing of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours, with lower confidence in clearing times. There is a low to moderate chance for cigs to linger through the period at all immediate coastal sites. High/mid level clouds may disrupt the marine layer at times tonight, leading to conds becoming VFR at times, especially for Ventura and LA County sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mid/high clouds may disrupt marine layer tonight, leading to VFR conds at times. Clearing time may be off +/- 3 hours, arrival tomorrow night may be off +/- 4 hours. There is a low to moderate chance for no clearing. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing time expected to be 16Z-19Z. High/mid level clouds may disrupt the marine layer at times tonight, leading to conds becoming VFR at times. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours.

MARINE

13/111 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Friday morning. Low to moderate chances for SCA winds across favored areas south of Point Conception this weekend. Increasing chances across all coastal waters heading into next week.

There is a very small chance of a shower or a thunderstorm around and north of Point Conception later through this morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.