textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

17/907 AM.

Generally quiet weather expected with cooler than normal temperatures and a deep marine layer today. Slight warming and a shrinking marine layer are expected Friday into the weekend.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

17/249 AM.

All mdls continue to advertise a high hgt (578 dam) dry upper low passage for Sunday and Monday. The most likely outcome for this passage will be an increase in marine layer stratus and 2 to 3 degrees of cooling each day. There is a 5 to 10 percent chc that the system could find enough moisture to produce some mtn convection, but this scenario is only seen by a scant few of the ensembles. If any precipitation does occur it is very most likely only to be morning drizzle.

Srn CA will be sandwiched in between a large upper low off the WA cst and an upper high over TX. Hgts will end up around 587 dam. The onshore flow is forecast to weaken some and this should kick off a two day warming trend with most sites seeing 3 to 6 degrees of warming each day. This warm up should bring most max temps up to seasonal normals by Wednesday.

AVIATION

17/1753Z.

At 1716Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 5800 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining sites. MVFR to VFR cigs should burn off by 20Z. There is a 30% for MVFR cigs at KSBA after 15Z. 30% chance for no cigs at KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, and KBUR tonight. 10% chance for LIFR conds at KPRB/KSBP/KSMX late tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may vary between 025 and 035 through 20Z. BKN035 conds may persist through 00Z. Return of MVFR cigs tonight likely between 07Z and 13Z. Good confidence that any east wind component tonight will remain below 8 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may vary between 025 and 035 through 20Z. BKN035 conds may persist through 00Z. 30% chance for no cigs tonight.

MARINE

17/835 AM.

Moderate confidence in fairly typical Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds developing across the outer waters this afternoon and evening focused south and west of Point Sal, then higher confidence in more widespread SCA winds Friday through Sunday across the outer waters and nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Choppy, short period seas will develop.

SCA winds will likely remain confined to the western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, but moderate confidence in SCA winds spreading to eastern portions Friday through Sunday (in the afternoon/evenings). Local gusts near 20 knot will be common each afternoon and evening through the San Pedro Channel and Santa Monica Bay.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).