textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/1248 AM.

Much cooler than normal temperatures will gradually to near normal early next week, with night through morning marine layer clouds shrinking in coverage each day.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

14/1248 AM.

A fairly benign pattern will continue through the forecast period, although high temperatures will continue to warm to near seasonal normals by mid-week and the large ridge of high pressure builds further west until it eventually centers across the Southwestern US. Any night through morning low clouds and fog should become confined to the coast by Monday. While there is good agreement amongst models through Wednesday, beginning Thursday there becomes more disagreement in how the pattern will evolve into the weekend. Some ensemble members suggest the ridging to continue and potentially intensify, while others favor a troughing pattern moving in and pushing the ridge to the east.

A northerly surface pressure gradient is forecast to develop early next week, likely bringing gusty northerly winds across southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual strength of the winds.

AVIATION

14/1721Z.

At 1649Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. 40-50% chance of no clearing at KSBP/KSMX, respectively, and only a few hours of clearing at KPRB. Arrival of MVFR cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours from forecast, lowest confidence south of Point Conception. KSBP and KSMX may drop to IFR conds overnight Friday into Saturday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs should clear sometime 17Z-20Z. Arrival tonight may be +/- 3 hours off from forecast. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs should clear sometime 16Z-19Z. Arrival tonight may be off +/- 3 hours.

MARINE

14/812 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Saturday morning. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA winds across the outer waters and the western portion of the inner waters starting Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances for the waters south of Point Conception and the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon/evening hours. Chances increase Sunday afternoon, and at least SCA conds will continue through mid-week. Gusts of 30-35 kt will be possible starting Monday, with highest likelihood around Point Conception and the outer waters north of Point Sal. Seas may approach 10 ft across portions of the Outer Waters Tuesday and Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.