textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/125 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain will be next Monday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

14/223 PM.

Friday's Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event, though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s. Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival.

This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the movement of the upper low.

AVIATION

14/1445Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Late tonight, there is a 50% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Timing of this potential return is low.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

14/112 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level winds for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all areas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).