textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

26/121 PM.

Showers will be tapering off by tonight local heavy rain is still possible through the evening. The weekend will be dry and warmer. A strong Santa Ana wind event is expected Monday with some lingering northeast winds into Tuesday. A chance of rain will develop around New Years Day.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

26/226 PM.

Santa Ana winds expected to linger into Tuesday, though gradients and winds aloft are weakening so winds should be at least slightly weaker.

The EC and GFS as well as most of their ensemble members agree in principle that an upper low will develop well to the SW of KLAX early Monday and will steadily move to the northeast. By Wednesday it may be close enough to bring rain to the southern portion of the forecast area. It is an interesting scenario because there will still be some decent Santa Ana winds occuring which will dry the lower atmosphere. While there is a slight chc of rain - the more likely scenario will be increasing clouds and morning offshore winds as well as some cooling.

The upper low will further approach the area on Thursday and Friday. A chance of rain will overspread the area. This storm will not nearly be as strong as the current one but there is a chance it could bring an inch of rain to the csts/vlys and 2 to 3 inches in the foothills and mtns.

AVIATION

At 1010Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. There was a 7000+ moist layer.

Last of the heavy precipitation indicated by radar shows that it is limited to the Los Angeles basin and airports to the south and in the interior at KWJF and KPMD. This should clear by 03Z to 05Z. With a few hours of light wind and clearing aloft, conditions are right with the recent heavy rains that stratus below 1500 feet AGL is possible, even if not at the coast. Currently, indications are that it should not constitute a CIG, but micro-climate wind will determine where any stratus will go, and most locations have very light wind, with the directions for most airports only the prevailing direction; expect a lot of variability tonight.

There is a 10 percent chc of TSTMs through 21Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 04Z. The airport will struggle with marginal VFR conditions due to RA/BR for both CIG and VSBY. Good confidence that the east wind component returns aoruond 27/15Z but does not last long with onshore flow returning by late morning. Some stratus below 1000 feet is possible in the morning, but currently does not expect to be a CIG.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 03Z with marginal VFR conditions both for CIG and VSBY. Conditions should improve after 27/03Z solid VFR is expected. Stratus due to all the rain and clear skies aloft, combined with light wind, is a risk for some marginal VFR due to CIG after 27/09Z.

MARINE

26/757 PM.

The winter storm that has impacted our coastal waters over the last few days is coming to an end. Currently, we have some light to moderate showers still lingering mainly over the waters just off the Los Angeles Coast as of 8 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west to northwest winds will affect mainly the outer waters through Saturday. Seas will remain large and steep, gradually diminishing through this weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).