textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

05/1251 AM.

Onshore flow will continue to bring low clouds to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning. Onshore flow will start to weaken Monday and cause decreasing clouds in the valleys and gradually warming temperatures. Expect a return to above normal temperatures early this week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

05/232 AM.

Above normal temperatures and dry weather are anticipated through the extended period as high pressure continues to strengthen aloft. Make sure to drink plenty of hydrating fluids, check on those sensitive to heat and/or without air conditioner, and never leave anyone in a car without air-conditioning as lethal temperatures can be reached inside a car within a matter of minutes.

At this point, the upper level ridge looks to be centered across southern California over the Wednesday/Thursday time period, when afternoon temperatures should peak. The ridge is then expected to shift north and east by the end of the week and over next weekend, providing some minor relief to end the week. That said, temperatures are still expected to remain near or above normal through next weekend, and likely beyond - with CPC outlooks continuing to favor above normal temperatures through at least week 2.

Given the anticipated warm up, there will be at least a minor to moderate heat risk each day. As mentioned in the short- term discussion, heat advisories will eventually become necessary Tuesday-Thursday, mainly across inland areas including the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys.

AVIATION

05/1251Z.

At 1215Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 11300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 ft deep with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF & KPMD).

Low confidence in remainder of TAFs through 16Z Sun, then moderate confidence. Mid level moisture/clouds are disrupting the formation of the marine layer, causing low clouds to struggle to form, or scatter and reform. Therefore, there is a 40% chance of no IFR/MVFR cigs at sites with those cigs forecast, and a 40% chance of IFR/MVFR conds forming at sites without those cigs forecast through 16Z Sun. Otherwise, timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours and CIG heights +/- 300 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of BKN008-010 CIGs through 16Z Sun. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours. No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance of BKN005-010 through 15Z Sun.

MARINE

05/830 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all waters through this morning. SCA level NW winds are expected to pick up later this afternoon and are expected to persist through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 20-30% chance of GALE Force winds Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception, Channel Islands, and the far northern outer waters. Seas will gradually increase reaching advisory levels mid- week and will subside below Friday into the weekend.

SCA level NW-W winds will reach into the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel starting Monday afternoon through Wednesday or Thursday. Most likely and strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the late afternoon-evening hours near Point Dume and across the San Pedro Channel through Tuesday or Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).