textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/649 PM.

A cooler weather pattern with night through morning low clouds and fog will linger into Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure remains along the California coast. A warming trend will begin over the weekend as high pressure to the east gradually expands over the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least Sunday then warm above normal by Tuesday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

13/246 PM.

The latest forecast ensembles suggest a steady warming trend taking place through at least Tuesday as 500 mb heights climb to near 594-595 decameters. Any night through morning low clouds and fog should become confined to the coast by Sunday or Monday. Temperatures should approach August during this time. After Tuesday, the spread ensemble member solutions diverge some. Two of the cluster analysis panels suggest a warming trend continuing, while one of the panel would bring some cooling.

A northerly surface pressure gradient could develop between Sunday and Tuesday. Gusty northerly winds could develop across southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual strength of the winds.

AVIATION

14/0213Z.

At 0029Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4400 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of change groups may be off +/- 2 hours, with CIGs between 015 to 30.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

13/809 PM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria across all coastal waters through Saturday morning. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA winds across the outer waters and the western portion of the inner waters starting Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances for the waters south of Point Conception and the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon/evening hours. Chances increase Sunday afternoon, and at least SCA conds will continue through mid-week. Gusts of 30-35 kt will be possible starting Monday, with highest likelihood around Point Conception. Seas may approach 10 ft across portions of the Outer Waters Tuesday and Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.