textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/723 PM.

Near normal temperatures with night to morning low clouds and fog will continue into Monday. A long and dangerous heatwave is becoming more likely beginning as early as Tuesday and continuing through early next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

19/131 PM.

The heat will likely continue Friday through the weekend, with continued warming very much in place by next weekend with a 40-50 percent chance of high warning level heat risk for many areas. Daytime highs of 85-105 will likely continue away from the immediate coast with a 40-50 percent chance of 90-110.

The building ridge may be positioned favorably to keep the monsoon door open with a 5-10 percent chance of showers/thunderstorms focused across interior areas, especially Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The added humidity will add to the heat risk and assist in maintaining very warm overnight lows in the 70s to near 80 for at least interior valley and foothill locales.

Sundowner winds may near advisory levels again, especially Thursday evening. As they weaken an associated Catalina Eddy may provide a brief break from the heat near the coast Thursday or Friday, although much warmer than normal ocean temperatures and associated boost in humidities will limit the relief.

AVIATION

20/0609Z.

At 0520Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3000 ft with a max temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 20% chance for LIFR/IFR conds 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBA and KCMA with a 30 percent chc of IFR conds 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KOXR with a 30 percent chc of no low clouds.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, KSMX and KSBP where timing could be off by +/- 2 hours and cig hgts +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of OVC010 cigs at 12Z. VFR conds may arrive as late as 17Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Fair confidence in TAF with a 20 percent chc of OVC005 conds 12Z-16Z.

MARINE

19/922 PM.

Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen Tuesday, rising to SCA levels by Tuesday afternoon, and will likely continue through the rest of the week. Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds in the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the same time.

A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through the waters through the week and likely beyond. These swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San Luis area.

BEACHES

19/724 PM.

Over the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Elida is forecast to continue to move to the north-northwest well off the California Coast. Another tropical disturbance is expected to develop in the same area and follow a slightly more westerly track along 20 N Latitude. Both systems will produce moderate period southerly swells. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements have been issued across Southwest California and are in effect this evening through Tuesday night.

The secondary system on the heels of Elida as well as an incoming long period, southern hemisphere swell arriving later this week will contribute to continued and potentially more hazardous beach conditions late in the week and next weekend. Additional High Surf Advisories and/or Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed later this week.

Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells over the next couple of weeks.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).