textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

12/132 PM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through this week, with abnormally warm and dry conditions. A trend towards more normal conditions is expected early next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

12/205 PM.

Computer projections are showing shortwave trough pushing through Idaho on Thursday, which should enhance our seemingly-never-ending offshore flow a touch for Friday and maybe Saturday. This means more of the same to close this week (see previous section above).

There is a broad consensus with all the ensembles that a change will finally come as early as Sunday (Jan 18) of next week or as late as Tuesday (Jan 20). Looking for a return to onshore flow, coastal low clouds and fog, and around normal temperatures. Further out, roughly a third of the projections so signals for light to moderate rain for the end of next week. This is far from certain, and not even the most likely outcome, but there is at least some rain chances to mention.

AVIATION

12/1721Z.

At 1653Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was surface based inversion with a top at 1200 ft and a temperature of 17 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs. High confidence in winds, except moderate for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KBUR, and KPMD, where wind gusts may be +/- 10 kt from fcst. Gusty NE winds with LLWS and light to moderate turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain, focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts through the forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. Wind speed may be +/- 10 kt from fcst, and wind direction may shift rapidly if NE winds sfc from the mountains. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS likely through the period.

MARINE

12/207 PM.

Gusty northeast winds will continue nearshore across portions of the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange County coasts through the week. Winds are expected to be slightly weaker the next couple of days compared to today's peak. There is a moderate chance (30-50%) for Small Craft Advisories (SCA) to be needed for the inner waters south of Santa Barbara from early Tuesday morning thru Tuesday afternoon. However, winds (15-25 knots) will be very much focused in a corridor from around the Ventura Harbor to Santa Monica and out to Santa Cruz Island, thus a SCA was not issued since most of the zones will not experience these conditions. Winds will likely increase slightly towards the latter half of the week. There is a low chance for NE wind gusts of 20-25 knots to impact Avalon and Two Harbors over the next few days, but chances become increase to moderate early Thursday through Saturday morning.

Slightly weaker northeast winds will also surface near Cayucos and Morro Bay along the Central Coast through this week.

Winds will create choppy seas, especially at their peak magnitude in the early morning to early afternoon hours.

Elsewhere, conditions will be relatively calm this week, although seas of 9-11 feet will be common through tonight across the northern Outer Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Wednesday for zones 355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).