textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/937 AM.

Gusty northwest to northeast winds will continue through the week. Otherwise, clear skies and above normal temperatures are expected, peaking this coming weekend. No meaningful precipitation is expected through at least early next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

02/250 AM.

This upper level pattern has truly given credence to the phrase a cutoff low is a weathermans woe over the last few days. The GFS and Euro plus their respective AI models do agree on the trough moving east into the Great Basin, slightly stalling, then moving further south. What these models dont necessarily agree on is the timing that the trough splits into the cutoff low, and the exact path this low takeswhether it moves more to the west off the Southern California coast, or east into the Southwest United States and northern Mexico. There exists a range of outcomes in terms of wind direction, magnitude, and timing due to these differences. Regardless of the scenario that comes to fruition, there will be enough upper support to have confidence in widespread advisory level north to northeast winds, with a moderate chance for locally warning level winds focused across higher elevations during the Thursday-Saturday period across much of southwest California. Sunday will likely feature weaker offshore winds, but advisories are still possible during this time.

If theupper low moves west off the Coast of California, light rain is possible. The timing, location, and intensity still remain a question if this scenario plays out, but virtually none of the EC or EC-AI ensemble members (wetter solutions compared to GFS or GFS-AI) are very bullish on significant rain at this time.

Temperatures will dip down into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday under the influence of the trough, then a gradual warming trend will be in place through the weekend as offshore winds increase. By Sunday, warmest valleys will soar up into the 80s yet again.

AVIATION

02/1053Z.

Around 0730Z, the marine layer depth was around 400 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 1400 feet with a temperature around 19 degrees Celsius.

Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley terminals. High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals. Higher confidence exists in timing. Less confidence in flight categories.

IFR to MVFR conditions at coastal terminals will likely occur through at least 17Z. There is a chance that clearing could be delayed into the afternoon hours at coastal terminals south of KOXR. At valley terminals, there is high to likely chance of LIFR to IFR conditions through 16Z. VFR conditions should prevalent by 20Z. A return of MVFR conditions is expected at coastal terminal south of KNTD after 07Z. There is a very low to moderate chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence at KSBA through 08Z Tuesday, spreading other terminals south of Point Conception after 03Z Tuesday.

KLAX...There is a 70 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions through 17Z. There is a 30 percent chance that clearing could be delayed until 20Z with a 10 percent chance of VFR conditions delaying until 22Z. MVFR conditions could arrive to KLAX as soon as 05Z Tuesday, or as late as 09Z.

KBUR...There is a 60 percent chance of LIFR to IFR conditions through 16Z. There is a 10 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence after 03Z Tuesday.

MARINE

02/230 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in exists in the forecast for seas. There is a moderate chance that seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially between Wednesday and Friday.

Widespread SCA level winds will develop through this afternoon across the entire waters with a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of GALES this afternoon and evening across the south of Point Sal. Local GALE FORCE gusts will likely occur in the vicinity of the Channel Islands in an area from Anacapa Island to Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Winds will diminish some tonight and into Tuesday morning. There is a moderate chance (30-40 percent) chance that winds could drop below SCA levels more quickly than anticipated across nearshore waters along the Central Coast and inside the southern California bight.

Marine conditions will deteriorate between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. SCA level winds will likely affect the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast through Tuesday afternoon and night. Then, widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) will develop between Wednesday and Friday. There is a high-to-likely (50 percent) chance of GALES for the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast from early Wednesday through Thursday morning.

An offshore flow pattern will between Thursday and Friday and there is a moderate chance of SCA level winds inside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight PST tonight for zone 372. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).