textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

06/311 AM.

Temperatures will cool today and Tuesday with increasing onshore flow and areas of low clouds and fog near the coast. Warmer temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained cooling trend takes us into the weekend with a chance of rain.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

06/255 PM.

Light rain will be possible starting Thursday night, particularly for areas north of Point Conception. By Friday, the cold upper low will enter the region, bringing cooler temperatures, rain and thunderstorms chances. Due to the cold and unstable nature of the storm, thunderstorms will be possible. Most rain is likely to fall between Friday and Saturday, with lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rain totals with this storm are likely to be between 0.25 inch and 1.0 inch, but locally up to 2 inches will be possible across some mountains and areas impacted by thunderstorms. Ensemble means over the last couple days have been fairly consistent with regards to average rain amounts and timing. However there remains a lot of spread in the exact rain totals between ensemble members, which suggests uncertainty in rain totals and a showery rain pattern that would yield variable rain amounts across the region. By early next week, a gradual warming and drying trend is expected, however at this point there is no strong signal for another storm or heatwave.

AVIATION

06/1808Z.

At 1634Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category. More confident in CIGs tonight due to less high clouds and the development of a weak to moderate Catalina eddy overnight. With this LIFR CIGs could possibly arrive (40% chance) at KBUR & KVNY between 07/10Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. CIGs likely to range from IFR to low-end MVFR 007-015. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. LIFR CIGs possible (40% chance) between 07/10Z-16Z.

MARINE

06/157 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will become widespread by this afternoon to include all Outer Waters, nearshore along the Central Coast, and the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. There is a 60% chance that a GALE Warning will be needed for PZZ676 from Tuesday evening through the overnight hours.

Winds will diminish later in the week with moderate chances for SCA winds lingering south of Point Conception on Thursday and possibly into Friday.

The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours - lower chances along the Central Coast later in the week. There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds Wednesday night across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters starting Thursday night lasting into the weekend bringing rainfall and the potential for thunderstorms. Confidence is low on exact timing and details for now.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).