textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/157 PM.

Multiple periods of light to moderate rain is expected well into next week, with the next period is all set for this afternoon and tonight. There will be a break this weekend, with the next round set for around Monday, then the next around Thursday. The risk of significant impacts and flooding with any of these storms is low, with generally light to moderate rain. Temperatures will remain at or below normal. Very large surf will bring coastal impacts well into next week, largest on Saturday.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

13/207 PM.

There should be a break in the rain for much of Tuesday, but then the next storm enters the window Wednesday or Thursday. The latest ensemble projections re-introduced a handful of heavier totals (10% of them) but most projection keep this storm in the same categories as the ones before it - light to moderate rain. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

AVIATION

14/0046Z.

At 0042Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no marine inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Off and on showers will continue today with periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys due to rain. Steadier rain is expected to move from north to south through late tonight with IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in rain. Onset of steadier rain may be off by +/- 90 minutes, and end 2 hours earlier than forecast.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Off and on -SHRA and MVFR cigs/vsbys until steadier -RA to RA tonight. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 8 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Off and on -SHRA and MVFR cigs/vsbys until steadier -RA to RA tonight. Rain may arrive as early as 03Z.

MARINE

13/153 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected. Winds look to peak today and Saturday, then again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (18-22 feet) with a secondary peak expected on Monday (12-18 feet).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, a combination of SCA level winds and seas are expected. Winds look to peak today and again on Monday. Dangerously large seas are expected to peak on Saturday (14-20 feet) with a secondary peak on Monday (11-15 feet).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, SCA winds associated with the frontal passage are likely. Also, SCA seas are likely on Saturday across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday and Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds.

With the expected large west-northwesterly swell this weekend, there is the threat of dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and especially Morro Bay harbor entrances.

Periodic rain can be expected this afternoon through at least Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through this morning for the waters south of Point Conception.

BEACHES

13/153 PM.

A series of very large, long period west-northwesterly swells will impact the coastline of southwest California through at least Tuesday of next week, creating large surf and dangerous conditions at all coasts. Largest surf will be focused along west to northwest facing shores and surf is expected to peak on Saturday, with a potential secondary increase Monday. Moderate to significant beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely, especially in the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous rip currents, along with strong long shore currents, potential sneaker waves, and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for south-facing shores.

The highest risk will be for the Central Coast with potential for localized damage to the most vulnerable areas - such as to piers, roads, and structures. High Surf and Coastal Flood WARNINGS are in effect for the Central Coast with impacts such as breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor entrance and Pismo and Cayucos Piers, as well as widespread sandy beach flooding - including Oceano Dunes State Park and other vulnerable low lying areas (especially during high tide). Surf heights are expected to reach 18-25 feet, highest at west-northwest facing beaches.

For west-facing beaches in LA/Ventura counties, high surf advisories are in effect with high surf expected to continue through at least Tuesday. There may be a relative "lull" in the surf Sunday before the second swell arrives, but surf and rip currents will still be hazardous. Surf is expected to peak Saturday and there is a low chance for WARNING level surf at Ventura County beaches. Breaking waves may impact the Ventura Harbor entrance. Additionally, moderate coastal flooding is likely Saturday around high tide in the late morning, thus Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zone 87. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 4 AM PST Saturday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).