textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/1214 AM.

Below normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. Unsettled conditions with a few scattered off and again showers will prevail through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions will resume early next week.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

22/1251 AM.

On Sunday, weak ridging will move into the state as the trof pushes out to the east. The anticyclonic flow will flatten out into dry NW flow on Monday. Stronger, sharper ridging will then move in Tuesday only to be displaced eastward Wednesday by an approaching trof. Sfc high pressure building into NV will create weak ocnl moderate offshore flow from both the N and E through the period.

Right now it looks like the offshore push will not be strong enough to eliminated the morning low clouds on Sun and Mon, but Tuesday should be clear. The low clouds may return on Wednesday depending on how fast the trof approaches the area. Skies otherwise, will be partly ocnl mostly cloudy through the period as there will be a good deal of mid and high clouds drifting through the upper level flow.

A very slow (1 or 2 sometimes 0 degrees) warming trend will develop Sunday with the cst/vly max temps rising from the mid to upper 60s Sunday to the mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Max temps will be a little blo normal Sun/Mon and a little above normal Tue and Wed.

A dry weather pattern is favored through the end of the month. The next signal for rain chances occurs around Feb 2nd.

AVIATION

22/1131Z.

At 0717Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3000 ft with a temperature of 15 C.

Low to moderate confidence in all TAFs. -SHRA possible across all airfields any time through the period, but highest confidence from 15Z-03Z. Moderate chance for RA at times with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in minimum flight cat, but IFR to MVFR most likely minimums, possible LIFR during any heavier rain. No significant wind issues expected.

Low but nonzero chance for a TSTM to develop, better chances (5-10%) focused KSBA and south to southeast from 15Z through 06Z. Any TSTM is capable of producing brief heavy downpours, small hail, lightning, and gusty erratic winds.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min flight cats, but BKN/OVC 010-025 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely minimums. Low chance for BKN/OVC 005-009. Moderate confidence that any east wind component remains under 8 kts, but best chances for exceeding this is from 14Z-18Z (30%).

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA possible any time through the period, but highest confidence in timing reflected in TAF. RA possible with any heavier showers. Lower confidence in min flight cats, but BKN/OVC 006-018 and vsbys 3-5SM most likely minimums. Low chance for LIFR conds. No significant wind issues anticipated.

MARINE

22/739 AM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through tonight, then there is a 30 percent chance for locally gusty borderline Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning. Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return Saturday through Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful nearshore winds at this time.

Scattered rain showers will continue through Thursday, potentially lingering into Friday south of Point Conception. There is a very low chance (5% chance) for a thunderstorm or two to develop later this morning through early this afternoon focused across the waters south of Point Conception.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.