textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/853 AM.

Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures will occur today through Friday. Look for gusty northwest winds this afternoon and evening. A weak storm with light rain is possible sometime this weekend and again the middle of next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

22/306 AM.

A very weak system will pass through the center of the state on Saturday. It does not have much in the way of dynamics or moisture and will only bring a slight chc of rain with the best chc over the mtns. Even if it does rain it does not look capable of producing anything more than a tenth of an inch of rain. It will bring plenty of clouds and cooler temps. Max temps should cool 4 to 8 degrees and highs across the csts/vlys will only be in the 60s.

Weak ridging will arrive on Sunday and will bring dry conditions, clearing skies and 1 to 3 degrees of warming.

Mdl consensus begins to fall off on Monday. The general consensus is that there will be a trof to the north of the area and fairly strong SW flow over Srn CA. The GFS is most aggressive with the trof and SW flow and some its ensembles are wet. Still not enough to include rain in the fcst, but still a greater than zero chc. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds stream in with the SW flow. Warm air advection from the SW flow will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming despite the increased cloud cover.

Not the best mdl agreement on Tuesday, although if you throw out the GFS it is much better. All mdls show an upper low in the general vcnty of Srn CA. All mdls save for the GFS are dry (including the AI-GFS) but quite a few GFS ensemble members are wet and this is enough to force some slight chc pops into the Tuesday forecast. Better confidence that it will be a mostly cloudy day with max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION

22/1523Z.

At 1530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.

Overall...high confidence in 18Z TAF package for most sites. Only exceptions will be KPRB and KSMX. At KPRB, there is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. At KSMX, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions in the 09Z-16Z time frame.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

MARINE

22/823 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. For today, northwest winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels and remain at SCA levels through Friday evening. Additionally, there is a 20% chance of GALE force winds tonight, south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, SCA level northwest winds can be expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today, high confidence in westerly winds increasing to SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all of the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).