textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

29/1226 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected into next week, but a return of low clouds and fog will moderate coastal temperatures. Sunday and Monday will likely be the warmest with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Locally gusty north winds over the weekend.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

29/132 PM.

While heights will continue to rise through Tuesday, most of the models solutions show a baggy trough continuing along the West coast, maintaining light to moderate onshore flow and keeping highs withing a few degrees of normal. There is a very small percentage solutions that swing gradients back to lightly offshore by Wednesday which would result in additional warming. And some warming is still the likely outcome for far interior areas which tend to mirror the height trends more than the gradients. But for coast and valleys the most likely outcome is slight cooling, but highs still within a few degrees of normal. There also will likely still be a marine layer for most coast and valley areas, which is typical for this time of year.

For the rest of the week just minimal day to day changes with dry weather and temperatures near normal. However, ensemble gradients are favoring an increase in onshore flow Thursday and Friday which would favor at least a minor cooling at least for coast and valleys, though 500 and 850mb heights are trending up slightly which would suggest either little change or slight warming for interior areas.

AVIATION

30/0536Z.

At 05Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Chances of LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KPRB (70%) KSBP (90%) KSMX (100%). Chances of IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight at KSBA (20%) KOXR (40%) KCMA (40%) KSMO (60%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (30%) KVNY (20%). Moderate confidence in timing (plus or minus 3 hours). High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites by 19Z. Low-end LLWS possible at KSBA 06-10Z today and the following day.

KLAX...60% chance of ceilings forming tonight, with a formation window of 08-12Z and a clearing window of 16-19Z. If ceilings form, high confidence in MVFR categories. High confidence that any east winds will stay under 8 knots.

KBUR...30% chance of BKN008-12 sometime between 10 and 16Z.

MARINE

29/753 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday morning, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. From Monday afternoon through Wednesday, the combination of SCA level winds and seas is expected to continue. On Saturday night, there is a 30-4% chance of Gale force winds and again on Wednesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday night, there is a 60-80%chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the late afternoon through evening hours with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).