textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/235 AM.

Seasonal June conditions will continue through the first half of this week as at least weak to moderate onshore flow continues, with night through morning low clouds and fog across most coastal areas. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before cooling down in the second half of the week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

15/236 AM.

A slow-developing trough over the East Pacific will become more organized and should build into the region by the end of the week, and carry a cooling trend into next weekend, with the most notable cooling away from the coast. This will significantly reduce heat risk even to warmer interior areas and latest guidance has afternoon high temperatures up to 5-10 degrees below normal. Night to morning low clouds will likely push further into the coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills as southwest strengthens. There will also be increased odds for some drizzle within the marine layer each morning.

The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those transition days (Wed-Fri) for far interior areas and maybe especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the expanding marine layer influence.

Looking further out, there's a 50-60 percent chance of above normal temperatures returning and perhaps becoming more widespread during the early to middle part of next week as a ridge potentially builds into the region from the east.

AVIATION

15/0641Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 1800 ft with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off 3 hours and flight minimums by one category. There is a 10-20 percent chance of brief to no return to VFR for KLAX KSMO KOXR KSBA.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20 percent chance of brief to no return to VFR. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance of LIFR CIGs 12Z-16Z.

MARINE

13/821 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.

Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the afternoon and evening timeframe across the western Santa Barbara Channel, Santa Monica Basin, and nearshore Los Angeles Harbor into the San Pedro Channel.

Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 NM or less is possible each night to morning through at least Monday.

BEACHES

14/839 PM.

A couple of long period southerly swells (14 seconds and 18 seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at least Monday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Monday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and portions of the Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.

Evening tides of 7.5 to 7.9 ft are predicted through Tuesday. The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding along south exposed coasts, especially near Malibu and Long Beach. In addition, there is along potential for sneaker waves.

Even as tides lower, another couple of southerly swells will move into the waters, which could extend concerns into Wednesday night or Thursday. Stay tuned for updates and refer to CFWLOX for additional details.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday night for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.