textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/1257 PM.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal inland and near normal along the coast through Friday, then dropping below normal over the weekend and into next week as a large low pressure system develops over the West coast. Skies will be mostly clear except for night and morning low clouds and fog across the coast and valley areas.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

04/205 PM.

The upper low over the Pac NW this weekend is expected to be followed by yet another low pressure system early next week, maintaining a trough pattern along the West coast and cooler than normal temperatures. There are even a few ensemble solutions showing a cold upper low as far south as Fresno next Tuesday with a weak cold frontal passage. However, a vast majority of the solutions favor most of that energy staying well to the north with just a weak upper trough over the area through mid week and slowly warming temperatures but still either near to slightly below normal. There are some signals for weakening onshore flow or even weak offshore flow starting next Wednesday or Thursday that would lead to additional warming but most of the ensembles keep gradients at least slightly onshore with a more gradual warming trend.

AVIATION

04/1742Z.

At 1705Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 4700 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. For all other sites, moderate confidence due to uncertainties with the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight.

MARINE

04/108 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds across PZZ670 and PZZ673 on Saturday and Saturday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, high confidence in SCA level winds. On Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally in the Saturday through Tuesday time frame, seas may approach 10 feet.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).