textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/108 PM.

Cooler weather is expected through the weekend with most areas experiencing temperatures within a few degrees of normal by Saturday. Low clouds and fog develop near the coast and push into the valleys overnight for the next several night. Additional cooling is expected next week with most areas between 4 and 8 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

22/106 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement through the period. At upper levels, weak trough will move across the area on Monday then a rather impressive low will drop into the Great Basin in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. At the surface, moderate to strong onshore will prevail with some increase in northwesterly flow.

Forecast-wise, rather benign weather is expected to continue through the period. Given the upper level pattern and continued onshore pressure gradient, a "May Gray" will most likely continue through the period with stratus pushing well inland each night and morning. Other than the stratus issues, skies are expected to remain mostly clear.

As for temperatures, expect a continued cooling trend for the region through Wednesday. On Thursday, there may be some slight warming as the upper low ejects out of the Great Basin area.

Finally as for winds, gusty onshore winds can be expected each afternoon and evening. Additionally, there may be some increasing northwesterly winds in the usual locations (Santa Ynez Range, I-5 Corridor, etc.), but do not anticipate any widespread advisory worthy winds.

AVIATION

22/1049Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.

For 12Z TAFs, high confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For all other sites, moderate confidence in 12Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

MARINE

22/106 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas developing.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds and seas on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.