textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

27/625 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through the middle of next week. A cooling trend will begin Friday and continue into next week as an upper low approaches the area.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

27/1156 AM.

On Monday the ensembles are leaning towards the development of another offshore flow pattern following the passage of the previous trough. The deterministic models are not quite on board with this yet, but the ensembles are showing between a 4-6mb offshore gradient to the east Monday and the GEFS does indicate some light offshore flow aloft. This has a very similar look and feel to the current offshore pattern with a strong gradient but lacking in upper support. The main difference is that there is a little more cold advection early next week so temperatures are not expected to be as warm, though there should be at least a minor warm up Monday from the downsloping winds off the Transverse Range.

Offshore flow is expected to quickly return to onshore Tuesday leading to a cooling trend that is expected to continue into Wednesday as yet another inside slider trough comes through. There are a few ensemble members indicating some light rain with this on Wednesday and/or Thursday, mainly south of Point Conception, but the more likely outcome is the trough staying farther east with dry conditions locally with seasonably cool conditions.

AVIATION

28/0002Z.

At 2303Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep, with an inversion up to 1500 ft and a maximum temperature of 23 C.

Moderate to high confidence in TAF package. At KPRB and KSMO there is a 20% chance of VLIFR/LIFR conditions from 13Z to 17Z, and a 10% chance at KOXR and KSBA.

There is 30% chance that no cigs develop KLGB and KLAX.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 30% chance of VFR conditions through the period. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7-8 knots through forecast period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

27/829 PM.

A coastal jet is expected to develop overnight into Friday with Small Craft Advisory level winds and borderline seas across the northern Outer Waters (PZZ670). These conditions could spread into PZZ673 at times especially Friday afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening, but still looks unimpressive and borderline. For all Inner Waters, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend.

Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).