textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/925 AM.

High pressure will bring significant warming to the area this week with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures today will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Additional warming Wednesday through Friday will raise temperatures to the 80s and possibly lower 90s with just minor cooling over the weekend.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

24/1253 PM.

Not much change in the longer range forecast either. A cooling trend will start Saturday as a cutoff low slowly meanders south along the California coast. This will reverse gradient trends to onshore, hence the cooling trend. While the deterministic solutions, particularly the GFS, would suggest a chance of light rain Monday, the vast majority of the ensemble and AI models indicate no rain and pops currently are under 10% through the period.

The primary impact will be cooling temperatures, though the magnitude and length of which are still in doubt due to the uncertainty of the path of the cutoff low. Temperatures are expected to cool through at least Monday, but models are showing a large spread in possible temperatures. Will likely need to see how the pattern evolves over the next few days before there is more clarity in the forecast for early next week.

Beyond that, the only blip on the radar is a very weak system around March 8. AI models that go out to March 12 show the ridge rebuilding over the West coast.

AVIATION

25/0007Z.

Around 2330Z, the marine layer depth was around 400 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 1100 feet with a temperature near 20 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals, except high confidence in the current forecast for all other terminals. There is a moderate to high chance of MVFR visibilities or LIFR conditions between 06Z and 18Z at coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period, but there is a 40 percent chance of MVFR visibilities or LIFR conditions between 10Z and 17Z. Any easterly winds are expected to remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

24/150 PM.

For the outer waters and the inner waters north of Point Conception. There is a high chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) near Point Conception to San Nicholas Island, with a 20 percent chance of localized gale force gusts both Tuesday and Wednesday evening.

Inside the southern California bight, good confidence in current forecast with SCA conditions Tuesday afternoon through at least Wednesday night, strongest near the Channel Islands and over western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a 20% chance for localized gale force gusts, especially near the Channel Islands this evening and Wednesday evening. This evening, there is a 30-50% chance for SCA winds across nearshore waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).