textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/314 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring warm and dry conditions through midweek along with gusty northeast winds at times across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A significant cooling trend is expected to begin Wednesday, with minor light rain or drizzle possible Thursday and Friday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

19/318 AM.

The cooling trend will continue through at least Friday as a low pressure system around 560 dam, will move about 150 mb SW of SoCal. This system will be pretty weak in terms of rain, with light rain showers or drizzle possible Thursday through Friday, mainly for areas south of Point Conception. However, as this system doesn't have a ton of moisture with it, rainfall totals of around 0.10 inches or less is expected.

The lowering heights and lack of significant offshore flow will lead to at least a 3 day cooling trend with coast and valley max temps falling from the lower to mid 70s Wednesday to the mid to upper 60s on Friday. Marine layer stratus will likely redevelop and will affect portions of the coast through the period. Aside from the low clouds, skies will be partly cloudy Thursday and Friday.

As for Saturday and Sunday, weather those days seem fairly benign so far, as both EC and GFS suggest a return to weak offshore flow and increasing 500 mb heights once again. The famous pair of offshore flow and increasing 500mb heights will likely lead to widespread warming of 2-5 degrees each day.

Both the EC and GFS ensembles and their AI equivalents suggest rain the last few days of the month and possibly into the beginning of the new month, but the timing has been pushed back and amounts have seemed to lightened over the past 3 runs or so.

AVIATION

19/1124Z.

At 0755Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion to 2000 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs. 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KPRB, KSMX, KLAX and KLGB 14Z-17Z.

For KOXR and KCMA, there is a 30% chance for northeast winds to reach 15-20 kt before 20/12Z. Otherwise, expect northeast winds to increase after 20/12Z.

Light LLWS possible at KBUR and KVNY after 21Z and through Tuesday as northeast winds increase across the region. Light to moderate turbulence possible during the same timeframe over mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for BKN002-004 and 1/4SM-1/2SM between 14Z and 17Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Light LLWS possible from 21Z through Tuesday.

MARINE

19/140 AM.

High confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday, with moderate confidence through Friday. Peak gusts of 15-20 knots are possible through later this morning for the western Channel Islands to Point Conception with just a 10 percent chance of reaching SCA levels.

Localized northeast Santa Ana wind gusts of 20-25 knots may occur at times Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon between Ventura and Santa Monica (and potentially out to Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands). Highest chances (40-60% chance) exist Tuesday morning to early afternoon.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities less than 1 NM may impact the coastal waters at times into next week, but low confidence in timing and location of fog.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.