textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/1231 PM.

Temperatures away from the coast will warm into the 80s and 90s through Monday. 100 degree readings may occur locally in the warmest valleys and Antelope Valley. Coastal low clouds will develop each night, expanding into the valleys Tuesday as a cooling trend begins.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

10/121 PM.

Increasing northerly flow aloft is expected Thursday as the upper low over northern California moves into Nevada. Ensemble pressure gradient charts show increasing north to south gradients across the Santa Ynez Range and the western Transverse Range beginning as early as Wednesday evening and continuing through at least Saturday. Gradients expected to be in the -3 to -5 range during that period that would support at least advisory level winds, strongest in the late afternoon and overnight hours.

The increase in northerly flow may keep low clouds away from southern Santa Barbara County but otherwise expecting the marine layer to push into most of the coastal and valleys each day. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Thursday, then reaching near normal temperatures Friday and 3-6 degrees above normal next weekend as high pressure aloft returns.

AVIATION

10/1803Z.

At 1730Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 5300 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

high confidence in CAVU conditions for KWJF and KPMD.

For all other sites, low confidence in TAFs. Timing of flight category changes may be off by 3 hours and one flight category. There is a 30-40 percent chance that VFR conds prevail after 00Z for KBUR/KVNY. There is a 40% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB in the 13Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chance that VFR conds prevail after 00Z.

MARINE

10/1103 AM.

Across the outer and northern waters, large seas will begin to subside today and tonight as the winds weaken with SCAs conds likely ending by tonight.

By Monday, conditions should be below SCA levels throughout the waters and are expected to remain below advisory levels through Tuesday. From Wednesday through the weekend, chances for SCA level winds will increase each day especially across the outer waters with a possible peak for the southern inner waters Thursday or Friday with a 30 percent chance of SCA conds during this time. There is a 30 percent chance of Outer Water GALES next weekend.

Dense fog may become more widespread each night to morning through Tuesday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).