textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

12/205 PM.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely continue to through at least Tuesday. Beginning Tuesday and continuing through the end of the week, moderate to strong offshore flow will bring warm and dry conditions to the area.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

12/208 PM.

One more day of gusty Santa Ana winds are possible (30-40 percent chance of reaching advisory levels) into Saturday, taking on a more easterly orientation.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through Sunday, but slowly cooling into next week. And looking out a little further there is fairly high agreement in the models that another cold upper low will move into the area the middle of next week, for another big swing into temperatures and weather conditions. It looks like mainly a dry system at this point, but there is some potential is tracks just enough offshore to support some shower activity.

AVIATION

12/1757Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was neither a marine layer nor a marine inversion. A moist layer was present around 4000 to 5000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a threat of isolated sprinkles or very light showers at all sites throught the evening, but higher chances for LA coast and valley TAF sites. There will be 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs at all sites, less so around 21Z Mon to 04Z Tue.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Short periods of sprinkles or light showers are possible into this afternoon. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period, more likely after 04Z Tue. No significant easterly winds are expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Short periods of sprinkles or light showers are possible through Monday morning. There is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period, more likely after 04Z.

MARINE

12/1211 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, high confidence Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas subsiding below advisory levels by the evening, with winds below SCA levels except for near Point Conception in Zone PZZ673. On Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds, again mainly around Point Conception. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours, except a 50% chance Wednesday evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday and Friday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica.

Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.

BEACHES

12/1203 PM.

While the peak timing for the most impactful coastal flooding has passed, there is still a threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding through Tuesday, due to continued high tides and elevated to high surf. The highest tides will occur during the mornings and range from 7.0 to 7.5 feet through Tuesday, with secondary high tides during the evenings (around 6 feet tonight decreasing to 5 feet by Tuesday evening). As for elevated surf, a long period southerly swell and long period westerly swell will impact the coastal waters the next several days.

The Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara coasts are in effect until this evening, and the rest of the coasts continuing until Tuesday afternoon. The High Surf Advisory for the Central Coast beaches (surf 8-12 feet) is in effect until this evening. The Beach Hazards Statement for Santa Barbara South Coast will continue into Tuesday afternoon as well, and is due to elevated surf and minor tidal overflow during high tides (lingering after the coastal flood advisory expires).

A Beach Hazards Statement Tuesday through Thursday morning will likely be issued following the Coastal Flood Advisory expiration on Tuesday for the LA/Ventura County Beaches. This is due to minor tidal overflow continuing to be possible during morning high tides (remaining around 6.5 feet) and the 2 foot 15-16 second southerly swell continuing to impact the area.

Please continue to monitor the forecast and refer to the Coastal Hazard Product (CFWLOX) for more information.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).