textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

17/124 PM.

It will be warm and muggy through Friday as remnants of tropical storm Mario move into the area. Temperatures will cool through the period but humidities will be much higher than normal. Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin Wednesday night and continue into at least early Friday. Over the weekend into early next week there is slight chance of showers as additional moisture from the south arrives. Temperatures will be near normal and the muggy weather will continue into early next week.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

17/214 PM.

The most likely outcome for Sunday is a quiet weather day with 2-4 degrees of warming, bringing highs to around normal in most areas. However, there are still a around 10% of the ensemble solutions that show the beginning of another moisture surge from the south and some possible showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. The moisture source comes from the next tropical wave moving off MX. At the same time many of the models are showing another upper low meandering down the West coast along 130n. As the low moves farther south, some of the models are entraining some of the moisture from the tropical wave and bringing it towards southern California. This could happen as early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely not until Monday afternoon. There are a lot of moving parts to this so confidence is very low. For now there are small rain chances both Sunday and Monday.

There are also some solutions that keep the upper low farther offshore, creating strong high pressure over the area with a warming trend. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

17/1657Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was around 500 feet. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. With surge of subtropical moisture through the period, general VFR conditions are expected at all sites. There will be the potential for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms at all sites through the period. This shower/thunderstorm activity could produce brief period of IFR to MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms after 00Z which could bring brief periods of IFR to MVFR conditions. There is a 20% chance of easterly winds around 7 knots after 06Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms after 00Z which could bring brief periods of IFR to MVFR conditions.

MARINE

17/112 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds this afternoon and evening across PZZ673/676. For Thursday and Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds across all of the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Sunday through Monday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds across western sections this afternoon and evening. For Thursday and Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Monday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Mario will affect the Southern California coastal waters through Friday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected through Friday with the highest chances of impacts tonight through Thursday night. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, frequent and dangerous lightning and brief heavy rain. Additionally, waterspouts cannot be ruled out entirely. Please monitor the forecast if you have any plans on going out on the water this week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through late Thursday night for zones 38-344-345-353-362-369-370-376>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).