textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/1039 PM.

A major and long lasting heat wave will to persist through at least Thursday with dangerously high temperatures. Friday into Sunday, temperatures will trend cooler each day and there is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms due to moisture from distant Hurricane Rachel.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

04/229 PM.

As mentioned in the short term, Thursday will be another hot day, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Advisories in place for much of the area. Temperatures will peak during the Wednesday/Thursday time period for the Central Coast. Temperatures will be very similar each day through Thursday for areas south of Point Conception, away form the immediate coast. Areas right along the ocean will see impacts of a tepidly strengthening sea breeze each day and cool by a few degrees each day. By Thursday, expect highs to cool to between 82 to 90 degrees right at the coast south of Point Conception. There is a 20-30% chance that at least some heat advisories will be needed on Friday. More significant and widespread cooling is expected Saturday and continuing into early the next week. Recent model trends are indicating at least a 20-30% chance of some showers for the weekend based on the latest ensemble tracks of Hurricane Rachel. Some increasing swells from Rachel are also expected starting Tuesday.

AVIATION

05/0540Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top at 800 ft with a temperature of 32 deg C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 11Z-16Z. Fair confidence in TAF fog KSBP with a 15 percent chc of VLIFR conds 11Z-16Z.

High confidence in the remainder of the CAVU TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that any east wind component will remain below 7kts.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE

04/728 PM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel. Winds over the outer waters will begin to increase Wednesday night through Friday with a 30% chance of SCA gusts at times, mainly during the afternoon to evening hours.

Night through morning dense fog may affect portions of the coastal waters west of the Channel islands and Point Conception through Thursday.

BEACHES

04/745 PM.

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend. Southerly swell from Hurricane Rachel will impact the LA/VTA coastline including Catalina Island. A beach hazard Statement has been issued starting 4 PM Tuesday through 11 PM Friday. An upgrade to a Coastal Flood Advisory and/or High Surf Advisory may be needed with future updates. These products will likely need to be extended into the weekend. Refer to CFWLOX for main details.

Initially, the swell direction will be SE (150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach and Catalina island Tuesday and Wednesday. As Rachel continues westward, the swell direction will becoming more southerly (170-190) later Wednesday into Friday targeting areas like Zuma. Unlike previous events, morning and evening high tides will be similar in height ranging 6.5 - 7.0 ft.

Outlook (Saturday into early next week):

A combination of long period southerly and westerly swells are expected to impact our coastline over the weekend into at least early next week. On Saturday there will be a couple of southerly swells moving through the waters. Saturday night into Sunday a very long period westerly swell will arrive, as swell from Super Typhoon Choi-Wan moves into the area. Late Saturday night models show a swell of 2 feet at 25 seconds moving in from the west, building to 3 to 4 feet at 20-22 seconds Sunday and Sunday night. This swell has the potential to produce both high surf and coastal flooding.

Evening high tides over the weekend will decrease by a bit more than 0.5 ft but the morning tides will increase a bit to 7.2 ft. This will result in continued elevated surf & coastal flooding concerns targeting areas from the Palos Verdes Peninsula to Ventura, focused during the morning hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Friday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.