textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/336 AM.

Below normal temperatures, patchy marine layer clouds, and breezy onshore winds will continue today. Tropical Cyclone Marie, which will remain well offshore of SoCal, will bring impacts to the region over the weekend into early next week. Rain is favored for Sunday focused over Los Angeles County. Increasing southerly swell will create hazardous surf conditions at the coasts.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

04/335 AM.

Well below normal forecast confidence continues into the extended period as an unusually active jet stream continues to be near and possibly phasing with tropical moisture from what's left of Marie at times.

A break in the action is possible early next week, although lingering moisture may be able to squeeze out drizzle or an occasional shower. A warming trend is most likely with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Southwest California may become sandwiched between a ridge to the southeast and a pesky trough to the west for the middle to end of the week, keeping the door open for additional tropical moisture. The associated southwest flow aloft may bring unsettled weather, although timing, location, and potential impacts are uncertain this far out.

AVIATION

04/0834Z.

At 08Z at KLAX, a moist layer was around 2500 ft with no inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Expecting another night through morning period of patchy marine layer clouds. Moderate confidence KSMX and north and low confidence for other coastal and coastal valley TAFs with a 30-50 percent chance that VFR conds prevail. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be most common, although brief IFR conds are possible, especially KBUR/KVNY.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF with a 30 percent chance that VFR conds prevail. Good confidence that any east wind component will remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF with a 40-50 percent chance that VFR conds prevail.

MARINE

04/134 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will be common each afternoon and night for the offshore waters off the Central Coast for the foreseeable future. All of other waters should stay below SCA.

Tropical moisture will approach the area Sunday through at least Tuesday. While unlikely at this point, there is a 5 to 10 percent chance of a thunderstorm over the coastal waters, highest south of Point Conception. A large south swell will also impact the area, causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).