textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

09/751 PM.

Extreme heat and humidity will continue through Thursday with a high risk for heat illness. Cooler and more normal conditions are likely by Saturday, with a likely return of the marine layer.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

09/120 PM.

For the extended period, 12Z models continue to be in good synoptic agreement through the period. Essentially, the area will remain "sandwiched" between upper level high pressure over Texas and low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, moderate onshore flow to the east will continue with some weak northerly offshore flow at times.

Forecast-wise, the above pattern will lead to a very benign weather pattern across Southwestern California. Skies will remain mostly clear for most areas, but there may be some coastal marine layer clouds during the overnight hours (although the warm coastal waters will help inhibit stratus development). As for temperatures, expect cooler conditions to continue with most areas about 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the mountains and deserts.

AVIATION

10/0559Z.

At 0508Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top at 1200 feet and 34 degrees C.

High confidence in VFR conditions at all sites through at least Thursday with typical winds.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east component will be AOB 6 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE

09/746 PM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas increasing to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this evening, focused south and west of Point Sal. Moderate confidence in winds expanding across all the outer waters Thursday and continuing into early next week. Winds and at times seas will likely exceed SCA levels into early next week, with a 20% chance for Gale Force winds during the evenings on Thursday and Friday, increasing to a 40% chance this weekend.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds will increase to SCA levels Thursday and continue into early next week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

South of Point Conception, moderate confidence in SCA winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (locally eastern portions) each afternoon and evening into early next week. Thus, there is a 40-60% chance for SCAs to be issued each day, with highest chances this weekend. Local SCA gusts will be possible each afternoon-evening across the Santa Monica Bay and San Pedro Channel into early next week.

BEACHES

09/719 PM.

Moderate coastal flooding will continue through Thursday, mainly around evening high tides for south facing shores. Even though the south swell from post tropical cyclone Marie is subsiding, the tides remain very high. The actual observed tides have been running about 6 to 8 inches above predictions, with the evening tides near or exceeding 7 feet.

While impacts will not be as extreme as the past few days, possible impacts include continued beach erosion, flooded sandy beach areas, bike paths, and parking lots, as well as low-lying roads. Some areas that may continue to see impacts are: the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Avalon on Catalina Island, and Oxnard to Malibu (including the Pacific Coast Highway near Point Mugu).

Beach Hazards Statements (BHS, CFWLOX) have been issued for the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties due to the very high evening tides through Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).