textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/1213 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend along with locally gusty northeast winds at times across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A slow cooling trend will begin today, but above normal temperatures are expected at least into early next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

16/1235 AM.

More seasonal but very likely dry weather is on tap for next week. At the upper levels a weakening ridge will continue over the state. Hgts will start out around 576 dam but will fall to about 570 dam byt Thursday. At the sfc weak offshore flow will persist through mid week but will then turn weakly onshore.

Skies will be mostly clear save for the marine layer stratus. The offshore flow will limit the low clouds on Mon and Tue. There will be more robust low cloud coverage on Wed/Thu as the offshore flow turns onshore.

The lowering hgts and the onshore trends will bring 4 days of cooling to the area. Monday's highs across the csts and vlys will be in the upper 60s and 70s. By Thursday, however, those areas will see max temps only in the 60s or a degree or 2 below normal.

Ensemble based forecasts have backed off on any rain chc through next Friday. Both the AI-EC and AI-GFS are dry through the 29th and show a slight rain signal during the 30th and 31st of the month.

AVIATION

16/1037Z.

At 10Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1500 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions through this at least Saturday at KPRB, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Dense fog is over the waters and approaching some coastal areas. Chances of LIFR conditions at times through Saturday at KSBP (10%), KSMX (30%), KSBA (already occurring), KOXR (10%) KSMO (20%) KLAX (30%) KLGB (50%). Low confidence on timing, but highest chances in the morning hours.

KLAX...30% chance of LIFR conditions 13-16Z today, 10% chance 20-24Z, 20% chance on Saturday. Moderate confidence that any east or northeast winds will stay under 08 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday. There is a 20% chance of north to northeast winds 15-20Z, and a 40% chance of light-moderate LLWS. Similar conditions and timing on Saturday.

MARINE

16/241 AM.

Dense fog with low visibilities impacting most of the coastal waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, with a patch over the mid-Santa Barbara Channel, and another off the Orange County Coast. Dense fog will likely be around through the weekend, with low confidence on exactly where it will move around.

20% chance of low-end Small Craft Adivsory (SCA) NE winds from Ventura through Santa Monica each Friday and Saturday mornings. Otherwise, High confidence in winds staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through at least Monday, with generally small seas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.