textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/1207 AM.

A warming trend will continue through Wednesday, with dangerous expected for many areas through Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the mountains and the Antelope Valley this afternoon. Gusty northwest to north winds are forecast for southern Santa Barbara County and the LA and Ventura interior mountains during the afternoon and overnight hours today and especially Wednesday. Cooler weather will begin to arrive on Thursday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

14/226 AM.

Very little change in the synoptic pattern during the long term. Hgts will sit around 592 dam through the period. The sfc gradients will be the bigger news as they will both trend onshore and become mdt to stg.

There will be night through morning low clouds and fog across the csts xtng locally into the vlys.

Max temps will nose dive 6 to 12 degrees on Friday. This cooling will bring max temps to or even a few degrees blo normal. After Friday temps will not change much day to day as the synoptic situation will not change much.

PWATs will remain around 1 inch and there will be a non zero chc of some afternoon mtn showers, but more likely just some cloud build ups. Long range mdls do show a generous uptick in moisture due to the movement of a tropical system next Tuesday.

AVIATION

14/0620Z.

At 0534Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 1000 ft. The top of the inversion was at 2100 ft with a max temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in the remainder of TAFs with a 30 to 40 percent chc of no low clouds. 30 percent chc of LIFR cigs when IFR are forecast and vice versa. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive within an hour of fcst.

There is a 15 percent chance of TSRA at KPMD/KWJF from 14/18Z through 15/01Z. These storms would be capable of producing erratic winds, turbulence and heavy rainfall.

KLAX...Low to Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of no low clouds. If low clouds do arrive there is a 30 percent chc of OVC004 conds. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 16Z-18Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

14/153 AM.

NW winds are expected to strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the Outer Waters this afternoon and will continue through Thursday night. There is also 20% chance of Gales later Wednesday into Thursday. Seas are forecast to build over 10 feet in conjunction with these winds. The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters along the Central Coast at times through this period, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. While a few showers may drift across the local waters through early parts of this week, thunderstorms are unlikely.

BEACHES

14/154 AM.

Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced southerly swell continues. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday evening for these areas. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. Later this week and into the weekend, distant storms over the East Pacific waters well south of the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in even more significant beach hazards by the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).