textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/717 PM.

Light to moderate rain is expected late today through Tuesday, although locally heavier rain is possible over the northern area. The highest rain amounts are expected for San Luis Obispo County, however with minimal impacts. Much cooler weather is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected through Tuesday, followed by west to northwest winds Wednesday through Friday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

20/1222 PM.

Near normal temperatures are expected Friday when most highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Then temperatures will fall to several degrees below normal over the weekend, with highs in the 60s common. There is a 30-50 percent chance of mainly light rain focused across the foothills to interior sometime this weekend thanks to moist upslope flow over the mountains and limited instability. The storm energy is coming from the southwest to west and is weak so significant wind concerns are unlikely, but it does lend itself to below normal forecast confidence.

An active pattern (for April) may continue into early next week as another weak storm is possible.

AVIATION

21/0144Z.

At 2209Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3100 feet with a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius.

For 00Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through 05Z, then moderate to low confidence from north to the south as the the front approaches. Timing of rain and flight category changes tonight and Tuesday morning could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There will be a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday morning at KPRB, KSBP, and KSMX.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through this evening. Overnight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. Timing of light rain could also be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. There is a 30% chance for an easterly wind component of around 5-6 kt from 13Z to 18Z.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through this evening. Overnight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

MARINE

20/1044 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Ahead of the front, there is potential for short-lived SCA level winds tonight into Tuesday morning, with best chances from the Channel Islands northward. Seas may approach 10 feet at times near the front. For Wednesday through Friday, high confidence in combination of SCA level northwesterly winds and seas with a 20-30% chance of GALE force winds south of Point Conception Wednesday night. For Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Ahead of the front, there is potential for short-lived SCA level winds tonight into Tuesday morning, with best chances from the Channel Islands northward. Seas may approach 10 feet at times near the front. For Wednesday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level northwesterly winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. On Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tuesday morning, winds and seas should mostly remain below SCA levels, but localized gusts near the front may briefly reach SCA levels. On Wednesday, high confidence in SCA level northwesterly across all the southern Inner Waters with a 20% chance of GALE force winds. For Thursday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds. On Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters tonight and Tuesday. With this frontal passage, there will be a 20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters north of Point Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop may produce brief heavy rain, gusty winds and locally rough seas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 378>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.