textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/1210 AM.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday with some patches of dense morning fog near the coast. Another warming trend will kick off on Tuesday, with near record high temperatures possible by Wednesday along with moderate Santa Ana winds. Another more pronounced cooling trend to follow after Thursday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

02/256 AM.

The Santa Ana winds and warm temperatures will continue into Thursday as mentioned above, but will likely be slightly cooler with weaker winds as the 500 mb heights start to lower and the sfc pressure gradients will weaken as the high pressure aloft shifts eastward and another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. There could still be some advisory level winds, mainly in the mountains and foothills, but upper support is weakening at that point.

The 500 mb heights start dropping rapidly from 582 dam on Wednesday to 574 dam on Friday, while the sfc pressure gradients weaken and switch onshore. This will result in more pronounced cooling on Friday with temps dropping back in the 70s (still 5-10 degrees above normal for this time though).

Beyond Friday, there is still some disagreement in the models. While the GFS and EC deterministic models suggest brief light rain on Saturday morning (certainly possible considering the rapidly decreasing 500 mb heights to 563ish dam as a trough approaches), their respective ensembles are staying dry until the deterministic and ensembles somewhat come to agreement on rain around the 10th through 12th. The aforementioned rain would be the result of a low pressure system dropping into the region, however amounts look to be under 1.00 inch at this time (which could certainly change in the next 8 days).

In the meantime, it looks like the most likely outcome for next weekend is continued dry weather with temperatures still well above normal and possibly another light to moderate Santa Ana wind event.

AVIATION

02/1351Z.

Around 13Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak sfc-based inversion with a top at 900 ft and a temp of 17 C.

Moderate to low confidence in coastal TAFs south of Point Conception and KPRB, high confidence in remainder of TAFs.

There is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds at KOXR, KCMA, and KSMO through 18Z Mon. There is a 50% chance of conds remaining VFR at KLAX and KLGB through the period. After 08Z Tue, there is a 30-40% chance of VLIFR/LIFR conds at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. For KPRB, vis may bounce cats through the morning.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 50% chance that conds remain VFR through 07Z Tue, but if cigs do arrive, there is a 50% chance of 1/4SM FG VV002 conds. After 08Z Tue, there is a 35% chance of 1/4-1SM FG/BR BKN002-004 conds through 16Z Tue. Good confidence in no significant east wind component.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

02/1237 AM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Expecting Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds to gradually decrease Monday, with SCA level seas lingering into Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday, offshore northeast winds will develop each morning, and there is a 30-40% chance for localized gusts near SCA levels for the near shore waters around Morro Bay and near the Channel Islands. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday a moderately long-period W swell will bring seas of 4-8 feet to the southern inner waters. Then Tuesday night through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning, local areas of SCA level northeast winds will be possible from Ventura Harbor south through Malibu and off the coast of Orange County. Northwest winds should increase to SCA levels over the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).