textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/630 PM.

Warm temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

04/1241 PM.

After the weak upper low moves through the area Saturday, pressure gradients will trend offshore again for Sunday resulting in 2-5 degrees of warming. Models do indicate some light northeast flow aloft that may support some breezy northeast winds across the area, but at this time probably not enough for advisory level Santa Ana winds.

The upper level pattern will finally begin to shift next week, replacing the dominant upper ridge along the West for the last month with a trough of low pressure. So far most of the ensemble solutions are indicating a couple of systems coming through next week, the first one around Tuesday and another next weekend. Neither of these look particularly strong, in fact models have been consistent showing rain amounts under a half inch with each one.

AVIATION

05/0545Z.

At 0452Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 06Z TAF Package.

There is a 20% chc for LIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z-18Z Thu.

Light LLWS and Turbulence possible over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura counties through 18Z Thu.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance that east wind component reaches 7-8 kts at times from 12Z-18Z Thu. Also, a 20% chance from 06Z Fri to 12Z Fri. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

04/720 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Higher confidence in the wind forecast relative to seas.

Offshore easterly winds should continue across the waters through Thursday afternoon. There is a high to likely (40-60 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds for the waters inside the southern California bight through late this afternoon, then the chance will become more widespread farther to the north and west into the waters south of Point Sal from late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

By Thursday evening, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels, then northwest winds along with wind-driven seas will dominate the pattern across the waters over the weekend. There is a moderate to high chance of SCA conditions for the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast as soon as early Friday morning with a higher chance for early next week. After Monday, there is a high chance of SCA conditions for the same area with a moderate chance of Gales.

BEACHES

04/720 PM.

An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline, first arriving on Friday and lasting well into next week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible Friday through Sunday morning, then moderate confidence in additional high surf Monday into Tuesday (and possibly longer) of next week.

Peak surf heights are likely to be between 10 to 14 ft for west- facing beaches along the Central Coast, and between 5 to 9 ft south of Point Conception.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until noon PST Thursday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).