textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/158 PM.

Warmer temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained cooling trend takes us into the weekend, along with a chance of rain.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

07/157 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday morning or afternoon, at least for Los Angeles and Ventura counties with similar risks highlighted in the short term. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be common through Saturday night, highest across the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura mountains and where thunderstorms occur. Peak rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.75 inches seem likely given the convective nature of this cold April storm. Several inches of snow is possible mainly above 7000 feet, but locally lower. Daytime highs in the 60s will be common at low elevations Saturday and into Sunday.

Broad westerly flow aloft sets up in the storms wake with isolated to scattered showers continuing through at least Monday. There is a 60-80 percent chance of a second uptick in shower activity Sunday into Sunday night as a second disturbance passes to the north with around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms focused from Ventura County and especially to the north.

Drier west to northwest flow sets up atop the region early next week with rebounding temperatures into the 70s to near 80.

Above normal temperatures are favored into Mid April with odds slightly favoring above normal precipitation. So we might not be done with rain just yet.

AVIATION

07/1706Z.

At 1553Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3600 ft with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs, except for KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB.

Chance for IFR CIGs KSMO (30%), KLAX (70%), & KLGB (80%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of IFR CIGs 006-009 should be accurate within +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 30% chance CIGs do not arrive. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

07/203 PM.

Current Small Craft Advisories (SCA) look on track. SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. Local Gale force gusts (35 kts) are likely this evening through the overnight hours south of Point Conception - there is a 30% chance that a GALE Warning will be issued for this timeframe (PZZ676).

A GALE Watch has been issued for the waters near the Channel Islands down south to San Nicolas Island (PZZ676). This watch covers Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours.

The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours - through Wednesday along the Central Coast and through Thursday south of Point Conception. Localized GALE force gusts may occur near the Channel Islands Wednesday evening.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters starting Thursday night lasting into the weekend bringing rainfall and the threat for thunderstorms.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).