textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/219 AM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue in most areas through the week. The next chance of rain will be the week of Christmas.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

15/247 AM.

The warm and dry weather will continue, except for a low chance for very light rain across northern San Luis Obispo County Saturday night and Sunday. Offshore gradients from the north and east strengthen early Thursday morning, then rapidly weaken and turn onshore Friday. The upper level ridge will begin to flatten out and break down, then southwest flow aloft will step in on the heels of the seemingly endless and everlasting ridge. Marine layer clouds will redevelop and return over the weekend.

Thursday features an increase in temps thanks to the offshore flow restrengthening, then a gradual cool down brings SoCal and the Central Coast back down to the 60s and 70s by Sunday. Although a welcomed (to some) drop in high temps is upon us, max temps will remain above normal for this time of year.

Ensembles continue to exhibit good agreement on widespread rain coming to the region Christmas week. However, there still remains a wide range of outcomes regarding both the timing and rain totals with this system. Included in the uncertainty is potential for significant rain. The Climate Prediction Center has stamped a Moderate Risk for heavy precipitation from the Central Coast south all the way to Imperial Beach from the 23rd through Christmas Day. For those of you who have been wishing for rain, you must be on Santas Nice List this year.

Next weeks stormy pattern does not appear to be a big snowmaker for our area as the upper level trough will pull in moisture from the southwest initially, then a plume from the south joins in on the fun. Thus temperatures will remain too warm for any significant snow.

AVIATION

15/1029Z.

At 1015Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.

For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. For all coastal sites, and KPRB, moderate confidence in current forecast as timing of flight category changes this morning could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. For tonight, VFR conditions are expected for all sites, except for a 20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions at KLAX and KLGB in the 08Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of CIG/VSBY restrictions this morning could be +/- 2 hours of current 18Z forecast. For tonight, there is a 20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF.

MARINE

15/230 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for all of the Outer Waters. For Wednesday through Friday, high confidence in SCA level winds continuing across PZZ673/676, but only a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670. Seas will approach 10 feet in the Wednesday through Friday time frame.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday afternoon through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Thursday and Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds in the Wednesday through Friday time frame, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 343-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).