textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

09/247 AM.

Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week. Some breezy northeast winds are expected at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early the next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

09/216 PM.

Rain chances begin as early as late Friday and continue into next week as at least three upper level lows move through the West coast. Although timing and rain amounts remain elusive, the likelihood of widespread rain throughout southern California is over 90%. However, it's a very complicated upper level pattern and there is still at least a 50% chance of just very minimal rain amounts (under a half inch) through the middle of next week with long (1-3 day) pauses in the rain. Expecting to more clarity at least with the beginning of the storm by mid week.

AVIATION

09/1736Z.

At 1657Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

09/150 PM.

Boaters should be aware that a Marine Weather Statement (MWS) has been issued for the Santa Barbara Channel (PZZ650) to address the continued risk for breaking waves into the evening at Ventura Harbor entrance. Refer to MWSLOX for more details.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Buoy observations indicate significant wave heights are averaging 12-16 ft (isolated 18 ft buoy 46069) this morning across the Outer Waters. Adjusted forecasted seas to match current obs. Typically in these situations hazardous seas tend to linger longer than expected thus have extended Small Craft Advisories (SCA) into early Tuesday morning. Seas will hover at or just under SCA levels thereafter through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with a peak this weekend with 20 ft waves possible. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Expecting SCA level seas today. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. SCA level seas could return as early as Thursday night, increasing into the weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday.

High uncertainty, but there is a chance for showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.

BEACHES

09/151 PM.

High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday between 7.0 to 7.4 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell continues to build into the area and is forecast to peak on Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, heed advice from your local officials.

With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks on Monday. This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year.

First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.

Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and the Ventura County coast, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.

For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Monday, though one or both advisories may need to be extended through the week. For the Ventura County Coast & LA County Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning, with conditions peaking Monday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.

Additional products will likely be needed through the week with a heightened risk this weekend. Stay tuned for updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).