textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/113 PM.

Little change in weather conditions is expected through Thursday with temperatures 4-8 degrees above normal. Areas of morning low clouds and fog are possible near the coast as well. A major and long lasting heat wave will begin Friday and last through all of next week at least with with dangerously hot temperatures.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

30/215 PM.

The short term discussion covered most of the long term issues. Models do indicate some increase in PW's Sunday and Monday from newly crowned Hurricane Rachel. Most of this storm is tracking to the west but it will send some moisture and likely ocean swells north early next week. There's even a small (5-15) percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the mountains.

Also, model solutions are showing even higher temperatures around mid week associated with a stronger offshore push and downsloping effects. The latest GFS is indicating 950mb temps in the mid 30s (celcius) so there is at least a 10-20% chance of reaching record temperatures during this heat wave.

AVIATION

01/0102Z.

At 2314Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3500 ft with a maximum temp of 27 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of change groups may be off +/- 2 hours. CIG height accuracy +/- 300 ft of fcst.

Lowest confidence in KBUR & KVNY between 01/10-16Z. There is a 40% chance IFR CIGs do not arrive or last less than an hour.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival & clearing times of IFR CIGs 008 (+/- 200 ft) may be off +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. 40% chance IFR CIGs near 007 do not arrive or last less than an hour between 01/10-16Z. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

30/1252 PM.

Quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the weekend except for localized gusts around 21 kts near Point Conception, Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel starting Friday.

BEACHES

30/1252 PM.

Beach Hazards Statement in effect thru 5 PM today for the rip current and tidal overflow potential.

While we will get a break from the coastal flooding concerns for the rest of the week, another hurricane swell (from Rachel) will likely bring a larger-than-Polo south swell to southern California for the early to middle part of next week. Thankfully tides at that time will not be extreme, but they should be around 6.5 feet which is high enough to cause some concern, but it all depends on how big the surf ends up. Stay tuned for future updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Friday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.