textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/652 PM.

A significant cooling trend is expected to begin Wednesday, with light rain or drizzle possible at times later Wednesday through Friday. Weak to moderate offshore flow and sunny skies will bring warming and drying trends into next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

20/149 PM.

Weak to moderate offshore flow will likely return by Sunday and continue into early next week with mostly sunny skies and downslope flow off of the mountains supporting warming trends focused west of the mountains. Advisory level Santa Ana winds will be possible for typical areas of Los Angeles and during this stretch, especially Monday or Tuesday of next week with the potential arrival of better upper level support.

Dry weather will likely prevail through the end of the month with a return of rain possible into early February.

AVIATION

21/0558Z.

At 0414Z at KLAX, the marine layer was a very shallow marine layer. The inversion top was 1000 ft with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. There is a 10% chance for brief VLIFR conds 12Z-16Z at KBUR/KVNY. Then IFR- MVFR cigs likely to return after 06Z Thu.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs. Low clouds may bounce in and out through this morning, with VLIFR to IFR conds. Stratus is not visible via satellite as high clouds are covering. Moderate confidence in min flight cat (VLIFR-LIFR) and low confidence in timing of flight cat changes. Moderate confidence in MVFR to VFR conds after 18Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF due to cigs. Cigs may bounce in and out due to unorganized development. Stratus is not visible via satellite as high clouds are covering. While cigs are present, 30% chance for 1/4SM-1/2SM vsbys and cigs VV002-BKN004, highest chances 10Z-17Z. Moderate confidence in BKN012-025 cigs after 00Z Thu. Moderate confidence in east wind component remaining below 8 kt thru the period, lowest confidence after 06Z Thu.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 10% chance for 1/4SM-1/2SM vsbys and cigs BKN002-BKN004 12Z-16Z. Then IFR-MVFR cigs likely to return after 06Z Thu.

MARINE

20/845 PM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through Wednesday, then there is a 30% chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Thursday and Friday.

A cut off low will move over the coastal waters bringing rain showers Wednesday afternoon or evening into Thursday. Showers may linger into Friday across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities less than 1 NM is expected to increase in coverage tonight into Wednesday, likely impacting nearshore waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.