textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/239 AM.

A significant cooling trend is expected through Friday as onshore flow redevelops ahead of trough offshore. Light rain or drizzle is possible at times tonight through Friday. A warmer and drier weather pattern will resume early next week as offshore flow reestablishes.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

21/233 AM.

Ridging aloft will replace the trough over the weekend. Weak ridging will strengthen through early next week with another blocking ridge setting up between Monday and Wednesday. A warming and drying trend should develop for early next week.

EPS ensemble members give a moderate chance of gusty northerly winds developing on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Then, advisory level Santa Ana winds will be possible for the typical Santa Ana wind corridor across eastern Ventura County and western Los Angeles County early next week.

A dry weather pattern is favored through the end of the month.

AVIATION

21/1743Z.

At 1638Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 fT deep. The top of the inversion was at 1900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence for remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hours and categories by 1 or 2. Expecting -SHRA chances for coastal and valley sites, thus have included PROB30 groups from previous package.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Generally expecting BKN/OVC 010-025 through the period, although could fall to 008 through 22/12Z. 20-40% chc of -SHRA 14-23Z. Moderate confidence that any east wind component remains under 8 kts thru the period.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-MVFR cigs likely to return after 06Z Thu. Forecast sounding and MOS guidance suggest that there exist a slight chance for LIFR CIGs to develop 06Z-12Z.

MARINE

21/755 AM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through Thursday, then there is a 30 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning. Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return Saturday night into Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful nearshore winds at this time.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities less than one nautical mile is expected through later this morning, likely impacting nearshore waters.

Rain showers are possible from this afternoon through Thursday night, starting north and moving south through the timeframe. This activity could linger into Friday morning across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties. There is a very low chance (5 to 10 percent) for a thunderstorm or two to develop at some time, with areas south of Point Conception favored - the thunderstorm threat looks highest on Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.