textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/118 PM.

Dry and warmer conditions are expected Friday as high pressure returns. Then cooler conditions are expected over the weekend but temperatures will still be near normal. Next week a strong high pressure ridge will develop for much warmer temperatures as well as some gusty northerly winds at times.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

23/150 PM.

While northerly winds start to diminish early next week, temperatures will be warming up quite a bit as that strong high pressure system moves over the West coast. Models are indicating 500 heights of around 591dam late Tuesday into Wednesday with light offshore gradients to the east between 1 and 3mb. Chances for any Santa Ana winds have decreased but the chances for very warm temperatures are high. By Tuesday and Wednesday highs during World Series week are expected to be at least in the 80s in most areas except right at beaches and well into the 90s in some of the warmer valleys. There is even about a 10% chance of highs near 100 in parts of the San Fernando Valley and low 90s in Downtown LA, which would be 10-20 degrees above normal.

AVIATION

24/0047Z.

At 2330Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 3200 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for the desert and valley TAFs, and moderate confidence in the coastal TAF sites. Moderate confidence that KSBP will remain VFR through the period, but there is a 30% chance of LIFR conds between 09Z to 16Z. Otherwise generally LIFR conds forecast for KSMX and KSBA, IFR conds for the Ventura sites, and IFR to MVFR for the LA Coastal sites. The timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may off by +/- 2 hours and by one flight category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Low-end MVFR 010-015 to high-end IFR >008 forecast from 08Z to 17Z Fri, but the timing could be off by +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind component expected through forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

23/911 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions across the outer waters through at least Fri night. Gusts were near to briefly above Gale Force earlier this evening near Point Conception but are now decreasing and not expected to exceed SCA thresholds. Starting Saturday, SCA conds are likely (60%) to continue over PZZ673-676 through Tue night. For PZZ670 winds will rise back to SCA levels Sun night and then persist through Tue night. Short period seas of 8 to 11 feet are expected at times through Sun night or Mon.

Nearshore north of Point Sal, SCA winds are expected at times through the period, including Fri night, Sun night and Mon night. Steep hazardous seas are also expected.

For the nearshore waters S of Point Conception, 40-50% chance of SCA winds across the western Santa Barbara Channel Sat afternoon through Mon night. Sun is likely to have the strongest winds, and also most likely to see impacts across the eastern channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).