textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

01/105 PM.

Steady cooling trend through Monday with night to morning low clouds and fog. Gusty west to north winds will form this afternoon and continue through early Tuesday. Widespread moderate to locally strong winds northwest to northeast likely Wednesday through Saturday, with possible showers over the mountains.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

01/108 PM.

High confidence in stronger than normal winds at least for Thursday and Friday, although lower confidence in how strong, widespread, and long lasting they may be. Model trends have been towards a stronger, slower moving system, increasing the coverage and duration of winds, possibly even into the weekend.

Advisory level winds are likely to continue Thursday through at least Saturday, although the coverage will likely change from impacting areas prone to north winds to more of a Santa Ana wind set up by the weekend with more widespread winds into coastal valleys to coasts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a 30-40 percent chance for warning level winds at times late Wednesday through the Friday or Saturday time frame, focused across interior mountains into the Antelope Valley. Fortunately, somewhat recent rains greatly limit fire weather concerns despite the potential for strong winds.

A warming trend is likely by the weekend with warmer valleys potentially pushing back into the 80s.

Still looking mostly dry through at least the next 10 days.

AVIATION

01/1759Z.

At 1651Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 2200 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums off by one or two categories.

KLAX...Fair confidence in CIG forecast. Arrival and Clearing times of LIFR to IFR (003-007) may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 30% chance CIGs do not develop. High confidence in wind forecast with no significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a 20% chance of V/LIFR conditions from 02/10 to 02/17Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

01/827 AM.

For the Outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will continue across the waters south of Point Conception through Monday. These winds will increase in coverage and speed. Local gusts to GALE force (35 kts) is possible Monday afternoon/eve near the Channel Islands. The axis of strongest winds will shift westward and expand to the north during this time frame. Resulting in low- end SCA winds across northern waters. SCA level NW winds of 20-30 kts will be common across all Outer Waters by Tuesday evening. Winds will become strongest Wednesday morning through late Thursday night, especially during the afternoon/eve hours. During this period, there is a 60% chance of GALES and 30% chance for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast. There is a non- zero chance for Storm Force winds, but more likely outcome would be moderate to high end GALES. SCA winds will likely linger through the weekend. SCA seas expected Wednesday through possibly Saturday morning.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level W winds up to 25 kt expected across the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon. By the evening, these winds will expand to include much of the waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Winds will increase on Monday, especially across the SB Channel where there is a 50-60% chance of low-end GALES during the afternoon/eve hours focused near the Channel Islands. Tuesday looks to be the calmest day where winds could drop below SCA levels for much of the waters excluding western portion of the SB Channel. Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning SCA winds are likely across the SB Channel. There is a moderate chance (40%) of Wednesday afternoon/eve across western portion of the SB Channel. Offshore flow tilts more from the east starting Friday thus waters typically impacted by Santa Ana Winds will need to keep in mind for more SCA winds potential into Weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).