textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

08/949 AM.

A significant northerly wind event will occur today. The winds will be strongest across the mountains but gusty conditions will extend across the coasts and valleys, particularly of Los Angeles County. This evening winds will shift and a moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind event will develop. The Santa Ana will peak on Friday and Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

08/1224 AM.

Very benign weather is very likely for the Sun-Wed xtnd period. The state will be under either a ridge or an upper high. Hgts will slowly rise from 582 dam to around 585 dam by Wednesday. Wednesday's hgts will be about 15 dam higher than normal. At the sfc there will be 3 to 4 mbs of offshore flow from both the N and the E through the period.

The high pressure aloft will keep the mid and high clouds away and the offshore flow will keep any low clouds from forming so skies will be mostly clear through the period.

There will be Santa Ana winds each morning, but with no upper support and not overly strong offshore flow the winds will come in under advisory levels.

The dry air and clear skies will allow for good overnight cooling. The cooling may be mitigated some by the warming airmass. The current low temperature forecasts may be a little too warm for the interior areas.

Max temps will be the main talking point. Sunny skies, offshore flow and a warming airmass will all contribute to a 4 day warming trend. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of warming Sunday; 2 to 4 degrees both Mon and Tue; and 1 to 2 degrees on Wednesday. Most max temps will be 1 to 3 degrees over normal on Sunday increasing to 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees on Wednesday. The warmest vly locations will flirt with 80 degrees on Wednesday.

Both the ensemble's and AI forecasts show no significant chance for precipitation until the 17th-20th of the month.

AVIATION

08/1649Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecasts as speeds could be +/- 5 kt of current forecasts.

Strong northerly flow will continue through this evening then will shift to the northeast overnight. Moderate to strong LLWS and turbulence is likely across the foothills and mountains with a chance across terminals south of Point Conception.

KLAX...for 18Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Strength of northwesterly winds through this evening could be +/- 5 knots of current forecasts. After 14Z, there is a 30% chance of easterly winds greater than 8 knots.

KBUR...for 18Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Winds could be +/- 5 knots of current forecasts.

MARINE

08/849 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence exists in winds. Less confidence exists in the seas forecast through the period.

Gale force northwesterly winds will continue across the Outer Waters through this evening, but the Gale force winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel will diminish to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this morning. SCA level northwest winds will continue across the remainder of the coastal waters through this evening. SCA level seas will continue across the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters off the Central Coast.

Overnight tonight, the winds will shift to the northeast. SCA level NE winds will be likely (50-70 percent chance) through Friday morning nearshore and linger each night and morning through the weekend. The strongest winds will be focused between Pismo Beach north to Point Piedras Blancas along the Central Coast, from Rincon Point south to Point Mugu and east to Pacific Palisades, and through the San Pedro Channel. The highest chances will be focused from Rincon Point south to Point Mugu and east to Pacific Palisades. There is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of Gales late tonight through Friday morning.

BEACHES

08/245 AM.

A large northwest swell will continue build across the coastal waters today, before diminishing through Friday and Friday night. This swell is expected to generate high surf conditions along the Central Coast with surf heights peaking in the 10-15 foot range. For the beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles county, elevated surf conditions of 3-6 feet with local sets to 7 feet are expected. This surf conditions will generate dangerous rip currents along the beaches.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY remains in effect for the Central Coast and a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT remains in effect for the Ventura and Los Angeles County beaches. The statements are in effect from early Thursday morning through Friday evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Freeze Watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday morning for zones 38-348-357-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-362-370>372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 346>349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones 350-356-366>368-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zones 352-353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Friday for zones 354-355. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Friday for zone 369. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 PM PST Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 7 PM PST this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).