textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

31/737 PM.

Numerous showers will prevail tonight into Sunday morning. Some showers may be heavy at times. Warmer and drier conditions can be expected next week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

31/1250 PM.

For the extended period, models continue to exhibit broad synoptic agreement through the period. Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the area Wednesday/Thursday then an upper level ridge builds in from the west on Friday/Saturday. At the surface, weak diurnal flow will likely prevail although the ECMWF indicates a bit of weak offshore flow in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

Overall, the above synoptic pattern will result in benign weather for Southwestern California. Dry conditions will prevail through the period. High temperatures will remain relatively persistent on Wednesday/Thursday with some warming expected on Friday and Saturday. There may be some gusty offshore winds through the period, but nothing that looks to be near advisory levels.

AVIATION

31/2337Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. -RA with MVFR-VR ceilings and visibility expected. Isolated and brief IFR conditions possible tonight, especially from KSBA through KLGB. Improvement likely 12-18Z. Wind gusts of 20-30 knots likely at most coastal sites starting around 21Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with possible brief IFR RA under any heavier cells. Improvement likely by 01/15-18Z. 30% chance of east wind component developing and reaching 8 kts from 01/10-16Z. West winds 20-30 knots likely starting around 21Z Sunday.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with occasional IFR RA under any heavier cells. Improvement likely by 15-18Z.

MARINE

31/707 PM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through this evening, except for a low chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers. There is a very low chance of a waterspout forming in a stronger cell.

High confidence in post-frontal SCA-level W-NW winds and choppy seas forming later tonight from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, then spreading to most coastal waters on Sunday, including the entire Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Bay. The winds turn to the NE on Monday and will likely stay below SCA- levels. There is a chance for another round of post-frontal winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, but likely a step below in strength compared to Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).