textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/206 PM.

A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest Thursday and Friday. Another significant cool down is likely into next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

13/206 PM.

One more day of gusty Santa Ana winds are possible (30-40 percent chance of reaching advisory levels) into Saturday, taking on a more easterly orientation.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through Sunday, but rapidly cool into early next week. And looking out a little further there is fairly high agreement in the models that another cold upper low will move into the area the middle of next week, for another big swing into temperatures and weather conditions. It looks like mainly a dry system at this point, but there is a 30-40 percent chance that it tracks just enough offshore to support some shower activity. The much cooler weather will arrive on gusty northwest to west winds focused in the Tuesday/Wednesday window.

AVIATION

13/2317Z.

At 1736Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Light easterly wind component expected to remain below 7 kts in the morning hours.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

13/107 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the afternoon and evening periods through Wednesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. For Thursday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the waters. The only exception is there is a 20-30% chance of E-NE SCA level wind gusts across the outer waters south of the Channel Islands and west to northwest of San Nicholas Island due to Santa Ana winds during the late night through morning hours Thursday through Saturday. The highest chances are on Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise expect conds to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening. Thursday through Saturday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island and possibly from the Orange County Coast out to Catalina Island, strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours.

Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.

BEACHES

13/105 PM.

While the peak timing for the most impactful coastal flooding has passed, there is still a threat of minor coastal flooding, mainly minor tidal overflow, into Thursday afternoon due to continued high tides and elevated surf. The highest tides will occur during the mornings and range from 6.5 to 7.0 feet, with secondary high tides during the evening (around 5 feet). As for elevated surf, a long period southerly swell and long period westerly swell will impact the coastal waters the next several days.

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect into Thursday afternoon for the LA/Ventura County Beaches.

Please continue to monitor the forecast and refer to the Coastal Hazard Product (CFWLOX) for more information.

FIRE WEATHER

13/1019 AM.

Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday, then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Interior Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will also see east winds which peak on Friday of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries starting Thursday. This will greatly dry out any affects of the recent rains. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth, with Red Flag conditions likely for most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties Thursday through Friday. There is also a moderate risk for Red Flag conditions over interior Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties on Friday. Cooler and improved conditions likely next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 PM PDT Friday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).