textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/213 AM.

Another heat wave is coming this week, peaking Thursday, but remaining well above normal into early next week. There is potential for major or extreme heat concerns for at least the next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

21/213 AM.

The upper high migrates westward starting Friday and sets up shop over the 4 corners region. Hgts will increase a few more mb. Offshore flow will continue from the north while onshore flow will persist to the east. Unsure how much stratus there will be each morning if there is any it will be confined to the nearshore area as the higher than normal hgts will keep any marine layer smooshed to under 900 ft. Mdl consensus shows cooling on Friday although there are not many synoptic signals for cooling and would not be too surprised if the cooling is less than fcst.

In general there will be little day to day change. Humidities will continue to be above normal. Max temps will change little day to day. Overnight lows will also continue to be above normal and humid to boot. Heat advisories will likely continue through the period. Citizens need to prepare for a long duration heat wave.

Since the upper high will be in the 4 corners area there will be a non zero chc of monsoon convection. Right now there is mdl indication of convection but that can change and will be watched.

AVIATION

21/0914Z.

At 0831Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1800 ft with a max temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF, and KPRB.

Low confidence in the TAF for KSMX with a 40 percent chance of no low clouds.

Moderate confidence in the remaining TAFs with a 30 percent chc of IFR/LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF with a 30 percent chance of 2SM OVC005 conds 12Z-16Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

20/943 PM.

Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this morning. Northwest winds will strengthen, rising to SCA levels by the afternoon, and will likely continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds in the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel during the same time.

A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through the waters through the week and likely beyond, along with a long period southern hemisphere swell arriving late this week. These swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San Luis area.

BEACHES

20/840 PM.

Over the eastern Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Storm Elida are forecast to continue moving north-northwest well off the California Coast. In addition, Hurricane Fausto, located 700 NM SW of southern Baja, will move ENE between 15 to 20 N latitude through the next 5 days or longer. This system will produce additional, moderate period southerly swell that will begin to move into the waters late Tuesday. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect this evening through Tuesday night.

Finally, an incoming long period, southern hemisphere swell arriving later this week/ Thursday night will contribute to continued and potentially more hazardous beach conditions late this week and next weekend. Additional High Surf Advisories and/or Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed during this time.

Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells over the next couple of weeks.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-348-351>353-368. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Monday evening for zones 88-356>358-369>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this afternoon for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Monday evening for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).