textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/205 AM.

Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will continue through Sunday, with widespread gusty conditions expected across much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties today. Temperatures will warm through the weekend, with widespread highs in the 80s. Briefly cooler conditions are likely early next week, with another warm and dry spell expected to start on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

07/205 AM.

A weak ridge begins to move into the state from the west on Tuesday. Onshore flow will peak at this time and morning low clouds will likely develop and should cover most of the csts and some of the vlys. Look for an additional 3 to 6 degree of cooling making Tuesday the coolest of the next 7 with cst/vly highs mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Look for temperature whiplash on Wednesday as the ridge pushes further into the state and the onshore push rapidly weakens and even becomes slightly onshore in the morning. There is a chc that some areas such as the LA south coast and the western SBA county coast could see some morning low clouds but odds are skies will be clear everywhere. Max temps will likely rebound by 5 to 10 degrees.

Thursday and Friday look very warm. The east Pac ridge will peak and hgts will rise to ~588 dam. There will be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow in the morning, which will bring some non advisory level gusts to the NE passes and canyons. Skies will be clear. Max temps will jump 5 to 10 degrees on Thursday and then change little on Friday. Look for cst/vly highs to reach the 80s and lower 90s each day. These max temps are 15 to 20 degrees over normal.

Both the AI-EC and the AI-GFS show no rainfall through the 21st.

AVIATION

07/1832Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

For 18Z TAF Package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through forecast period. Moderate confidence in wind fcst for sites across Ventura and Los Angeles counties with timing of wind shifts could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast and gusts could be off by up to 10 knots.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Winds: 04020G30 thru 00Z then turning more Northerly (010) 08/00Z with reduced speeds, but remaining gusty for a few hours after. Timing of wind group changes could be off by +/- 2 hours.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast as direction could be +/- 30 degrees of current forecast and gusts could be +/- 10 knots.

MARINE

07/758 AM.

***UPDATE***

Will be extending all current Small Craft Advisories likely through early Sunday afternoon. This will be updated with the afternoon forecast package. Zones: PZZ676/650/655.

***MAIN DISCUSSION***

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, there is a 60-70% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast winds across PZZ676 with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across PZZ670/673. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas for all the Outer Waters with a 20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds across PZZ670 on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, SCA level northeast winds are expected from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel...with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

There is a 40-50 percent of winds up to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots reaching Avalon this morning, with wind driven waves up to 3 feet possible.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 87-366>368-381-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 88-354-355-358-371>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 362-369-370-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for zones 362-366>370-372-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).