textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/150 AM.

Temperatures will cool some again on Tuesday with increasing onshore flow and areas of low clouds and fog near the coast. Warmer temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained cooling trend takes us into the weekend, along with a chance of rain.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

07/305 AM.

Rain is expected to return to the area by Friday, with showers continuing through early next week as a second and even colder upper low moves into the area Sunday into Monday morning. Both systems have convective elements but the second upper low may prove to be the most active system due to a colder and more unstable airmass. Ensembles are still showing a big spread in possible outcomes with regard to rain amounts, though the mean has stayed consistent between a half and one inch. The large ensemble spread is likely due to the convective aspect of this system, and there is a reasonable chance that areas that experience convective rain bursts could see as much as 2-3 inches through Monday. Small hail and gusty winds are a strong possibility as well. Snow levels will be around 7000 feet for the first system through Saturday, then lowering to around 5000 feet late Sunday into Monday with that colder system coming through. Snow on the Grapevine is unlikely with either of these systems but if it happened it would most likely be Monday morning. At higher elevations at least a few inches of snow are possible. Will have a better idea on that as the storm gets closer.

Lastly, it won't be raining everywhere all weekend. There will be lengthy periods of no rain with sunshine, then quick escalation to brief heavy rain and possible thunderstorms. Given the convective aspect, periods of very heavy rain are possible that could create significant flooding issues in isolated areas.

AVIATION

07/0249Z.

At 2205Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3400 ft with a temperature of 17 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category. There is a 30-40% chance for LIFR CIGs at KBUR & KVNY after 10Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. CIGs likely to range from IFR to MVFR. Any east wind component that develops is expected to be less than 5 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. LIFR CIGs possible (40% chance) after 10Z.

MARINE

06/904 PM.

Current Small Craft Advisories (SCA) look on track. SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. There is a 40% chance that a GALE Warning will be needed for the outer waters south of Point Conception Tuesday evening through the overnight hours. Another chance for outer water gales comes Wednesday evening for about the same area.

The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours - lower chances along the Central Coast later in the week. There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds Wednesday night across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands.

Winds will diminish later in the week with moderate chances for SCA winds lingering south of Point Conception on Thursday and possibly into Friday.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters starting Thursday night lasting into the weekend bringing rainfall and the potential for thunderstorms. Confidence is low on exact timing and details for now.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).