textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/116 PM.

Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist along the Central Coast through the week, peaking on Tuesday. Warming temperatures are expected elsewhere, though the marine layer may linger at least near the coast keeping temperatures cooler there. There will be some gusty northerly winds across the mountains through the week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

24/217 AM.

Srn CA will be under gradually strengthening SW flow through the period. Hgts will slowly fall from 582 dam Friday to 568 dam on Monday as the upper high shifts to the east. The gradients will not change much on Fri and Sat but will become more and more onshore on Sunday and Monday.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will continue through the period with better vly penetration on Sun and Mon.

Max temps are forecast to warm some on Friday although this is highly dependent on the actual gradients and marine layer. Not much change is forecast for Saturday. Noticeable cooling is likely on Sun and Mon as hgts fall and onshore flow increases. Monday's max temps should be in the 70s and lower 80s across the csts/vlys. Despite all the cooling Monday's max temps will end up 5 to 10 degrees over normal.

Both AI-Mdls (as they have for the past 6 days) show a system affecting the area sometime on 31st and 1st. It looks like it will be at least a half inch rain event although today's GFS-AI run was wetter. ***OF NOTE***

This has be a phenomenally warm month. Using the forecasted high temperatures for DTLA for today (the 24rd) to the 31st along with the max temps that have already occurred, the DTLA average max temp for the month would be 82.0 degrees. This would handily eclipse the previous record holders:

79.1 degrees in 2015 76.7 degrees in 2017 76.0 degrees in 1931 75.8 degrees in 1934 75.7 degrees in 1959

AVIATION

24/0622Z.

At 0523Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4600 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD & KWJF.

Fair confidence in KSMX TAF with a 20 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Cig hgt could vary by +/- 200 ft.

Low confidence in KBUR and KVNY TAFs with a 40 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of cigs OVC010-012 by 11Z. There is a 30 percent chc of VFR cond arriving at 20Z. There is a 20 percent chc that low clouds could return by 00Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 17Z with a 40 percent chc of 1/4SM FG VV002 conds 12Z-17Z.

MARINE

23/805 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Thursday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Wednesday, there is a moderate chance (30-50% chance) of GALES, likely to be focused during the afternoon thru overnight timeframe. Large seas of 10-14 feet are possible late Wednesday through early Friday. For the weekend, seas should generally remain below SCA levels with low to moderate chances for SCA winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For Tuesday, there is a 40% chance of SCA winds. Followed by a 60-70% chance on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds focused during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday.

Dense fog is possible this week, focused in the late evening to early afternoon hours each day. Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 340>342-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).