textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/219 AM.

Dense fog will continue along the coasts through late this morning and possibly into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures today, then warming Sunday through Tuesday before a cooling trend occurs in the latter half of next week. The next chance of widespread rain is during the week of Christmas, with a low chance for light rain next weekend for northern portions.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

13/241 AM.

The warm and dry conditions continue Tuesday with little change in actual high temperatures, but overnight lows will be warmer as the offshore flow from the north and east continue. Offshore flow from the east will weaken through Tuesday, but the northerly gradients will remain fairly similar Tuesday through Thursday. Above normal temperatures will continue through the week, but some slight cooling is on the way Wednesday through Friday. Most of the forecast areas will see highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s by Friday.

A return of December dense fog at the coasts is possible Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is on the horizon, but likely not until next weekend at the earliest. The latest CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook is showing likely above normal precipitation across the region. Almost all members of the ensembles of the GFS, EC, and EC-AI are indicating rain at some point from next weekend through a couple days after Christmas. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty in the timing of rain and the rain totals, but there is considerable agreement that there will be some rain during that period. The GFS ensemble has a few solutions that show rain as early as Saturday afternoon for SLO County, but this is certainly the outlier compared to the remainder of the solutions across models. The current sweet spot with the most number of solutions favoring rain appears to be from the 22nd through the 26th, so Santa Claus may need to break out the rain coat when he visits SoCal.

AVIATION

13/1807Z.

At 1815Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2800 feet with a temperatures of 21 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs. Low to moderate confidence for coastal sites due to uncertainties in timing of flight category changes which could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 60% chance of VV001 with 1/4sm FG after 08z. 30% chance as early as 04z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

MARINE

13/959 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, especially from Point Conception southward.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect much of the coastal waters today through Sunday. The best chances for dense fog will be from the overnight through morning hours with scattered pockets likely through the afternoon and evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.