textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/109 PM.

It will be cloudy and cool today with a few light showers west of Los Angeles. A powerful storm system will move into the region starting Monday, bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, burn-scar debris flows, flash flooding with rock and mud slides, damaging winds, heavy mountain snow, and high surf with coastal flooding. Cold and blustery conditions with periodic rain will occur through at least the middle of this coming week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

15/212 PM.

Another trof is forecast to zip over the area on Thursday. This system is another NW flow system and will zip over the area fairly quickly as well still it. The ensembles are divided on the system with many keeping it too far inside to bring much rain but others with a more westerly trajectory do bring rain. Right now it just looks like a cool, partly to mostly cloudy day with a chance of rain.

Friday and Saturday look dry although a few ensembles do show rain on Saturday but this is a pretty low chc. There will be some warming each day, but not enough to bring temps back to normal or even produce some 70 degrees readings.

AVIATION

15/2359Z.

At 2323Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. 1 to 3 hour periods of MVFR cigs are possible at any time, and OVC008-OVC015 or lower cigs will be possible during heavy rain (starting after around 10Z Mon for northern sites and after 15Z for southern sites). A powerful storm system will bring gusty southeast to southwest winds, rain, and a chance of TSTMs during during the day on Monday.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. 1 to 3 hour periods of BKN020-025 cigs are possible at anytime, and OVC008-OVC015 or lower cigs will be possible after around 16Z. Winds shifts timing may be off by 2 hours. A powerful storm system will bring strong east winds, rain and a chance of TSTMs during the forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 1 to 3 hour periods of BKN020-025 cigs are possible at anytime, and OVC008-OVC015 or lower cigs will be possible after around 16Z. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Monday.

MARINE

15/1002 AM.

For the Outer Waters and Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate in current forecast. Today, southeast winds will increase to SCA levels as well as the seas. Tonight through Wednesday, high confidence in at least SCA level winds and seas, with a 60-80% chance of GALE force winds this evening through Wednesday morning. There will likely be a 4 to 8 hour break in widespread GALES Tuesday morning through afternoon.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through this afternoon. For this evening through Wednesday, SCA level winds are likely and there is a 50-70% chance of GALE force winds Monday, possibly continuing into Monday night.

A squall line will likely develop in association with the cold front late Sunday night through Monday, which will result in extra hazardous marine conditions. These may include STORM force winds, dangerous Lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced visibility, and waterspouts.

A large mixed medium period west swell of 8 to 13 feet Monday and Tuesday will likely build further to 12 to 16 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highest in the outer and northern waters.

BEACHES

15/242 PM.

A period of very large waves is expected to start on Monday, with surf generally peaking Tuesday and Wednesday across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, see the CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an elevated chance of coastal flooding, or at the very least, minor tidal overflows especially during the time of the high tides, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. A coastal flood advisory may be needed should swell guidance remain consistent along with wind- driven factors.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for zones 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for zones 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-366>375-383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Flood Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening for zones 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 10 AM Monday to 6 PM PST Thursday for zones 340-346-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Monday morning through Wednesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 10 AM Monday to noon PST Thursday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 AM Monday to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 2 AM PST Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 4 AM Monday to 2 AM PST Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).