textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

31/230 AM.

Cooler conditions are expected through at least Tuesday with some areas of morning low clouds and fog. A very slow warming trend is expected later in the week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

31/230 AM.

Broad troffing aloft and benign weather at the sfc will continue through Friday and very likely Saturday. Morning low clouds will mostly be confined to the Central Coast with otherwise mostly clear skies. Max temps will remain 3 to 6 degrees blo normal everywhere xcp the csts where max temps will be near normal.

The GFS is creating quite a bit of excitement by developing a tropical storm and moving it up the coast towards Srn CA next Sunday through Monday. While fun and exciting to talk about it must be loudly stated that no other mdl agrees with this forecast even the AI version of the GFS. The EC and and AI version of the EC keep this system well to west of the area. There is a slightly better chc that the storm will pull enough moisture up into Srn CA that it will trigger some showers - still even this scenario only has about a 20 percent chc of occuring. The most likely affects of this system will be more humidity and strong strong south swells.

AVIATION

31/0930Z.

At 0822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

Fair confidence in KPRB, KSBP and KSMX TAFs. VFR transition could occur +/- 90 min from fcst time. There is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds from 10Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO and KLAX with a 25 percent chc of 1000 ft cigs 12Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in KLGB with a 30 percent chc of no cigs.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z then good confidence. There is a 25 percent chc of BKN-OVC-008-010 conds 12Z-17Z. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

31/209 AM.

High confidence in decreasing coverage of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds today, with SCA winds and steep, choppy seas limited to the outer waters south of Point Sal into tonight. Expecting SCA winds to impact portions of the Santa Barbara Channel late this afternoon to this evening, especially near Santa Cruz Island. Winds weaken for Tuesday, and chances for more widespread SCA winds increase Wednesday into the remainder of the week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zones 645-650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).