textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/805 AM.

Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

24/200 PM.

Increasing northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range is expected later in the week with the potential for very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn.

Most of the ensemble models are favoring a few degrees of cooling each day from Friday to next Monday, with highs either at or slightly above normal.

AVIATION

24/2313Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2000 feet and 31 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Tuesday KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Chances of LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (60%) KSMX (90%), KOXR (30%) KCMA (30%) KSMO (40%) KLAX (50%) KLGB (50%). Moderate confidence in timing (plus or minus 3 hours).

KLAX...There is a 50% chance of IFR conditions 10-16Z, with a 10% chance of LIFR. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

MARINE

24/1250 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday morning, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across PZZ673/676. From Tuesday afternoon through Saturday, SCA level winds are expected across all of the Outer Waters with seas approaching SCA levels (8-10 feet).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through Saturday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, seas will approach SCA levels by Thursday/Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and evening, then a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday through Saturday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

24/410 PM.

An extended period of very hot and dry conditions will bring widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions away from the immediate coast through this weekend. The combination of triple digit temperatures, very deep mixing heights of 12,000 to 20,000 feet, locally gusty winds, low humidities, and fuels approaching critical levels will bring the highest risk of large plume dominated fires with rapid fire spread in the interior mountains and adjacent foothills of LA, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, as well as the Cuyama Valley, resulting in the Red Flag Warning issuance Tuesday through Friday. These areas can expect minimum humidities of 8 to 20 percent, poor overnight recoveries, and locally gusty northerly winds at times across the interior mountains (strongest in the I-5 and Highway 33 corridors). There is the possibility of a slight enhancement to the northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday morning across the interior mountains, which could result in isolated gusts up to 40 mph in the I-5 corridor. There is a history of large plume dominated fires this time of year with similar weather and fuel conditions, including the Bridge, Bobcat, and Stations fires.

Weak to moderate sundowner winds with hot and dry conditions will likely bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across southern Santa Barbara county through Saturday night, with Tuesday and Saturday events likely strongest and most widespread. Sundowner wind exposed areas could see temperatures soar to between 90 and 100 degrees with humidities falling to between 10 and 25 percent.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).