textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/407 AM.

Warm temperatures will continue for the interior and interior mountain into this coming week. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will also be possible starting late tonight and continuing well into next week. Temperatures will rise again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels across parts of the area, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

11/402 AM.

The long range mdl consensus is that the monsoon will stop on Tuesday and skies will become mostly sunny, likely as a result of a break in the moisture as upper level flow shifts to the southwest. The marine layer and temp forecast begins to get problematic due to the uncertainty in the N/S pressure gradient. Right now it looks like the best bet is for continued onshore flow which means a good chc of morning stratus and only a degree or two of warming due to the increase in sunshine.

Rising hgts and a better chc of weak onshore or even offshore flow in the N/S direction will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas. Vly temps will likely range from 95 to 105. A heat watch is in effect Tuesday through Thursday to cover the good possibility of these hotter temps.

The mdl consensus points to an increase in onshore flow starting Tuesday afternoon, growing stronger Thursday and Friday. This will likely increase the morning clouds and bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the area. Even with this cooling max temps will remain above normal. The is also a chc of a return of the monsoon with a 10 to 20 percent chc of showers/TSTMs developing over the mtns for Thursday.

AVIATION

11/1247Z.

At 0503Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was was 1000 ft. The top of the inversion was at 4800 ft with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low-to-moderate confidence in TAF for KPRB. Cigs may fail to reach the TAF site, and if they do, they will be short-lived.

Moderate confidence in the remaining TAFs. Clearing times may be 1-2 hours later than forecast, and if clouds last later into the day, could see earlier arrival times tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF with southeast winds possible through 15Z. High confidence that any east wind component will be below 6kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds clearing times and if cigs will reach BUR tonight.

MARINE

11/843 AM.

For the outer waters, winds and seas are largely expected to be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels today through Tuesday, then there is a 50% chance of SCA winds developing Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday night.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, mainly light winds are expected through Tuesday, but winds increase Tuesday afternoon and evening with a 50% chance for SCA winds Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels through the period, except for a 50% chance of SCA wind gusts at times western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday and Wednesday night.

BEACHES

11/315 AM.

A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With this longer period swell, the potential for larger surf and a greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development.

Thunderstorms will be possible along the beaches starting Sunday and going through next week (10-20% chance). For more information, please refer to the Beach Hazard Statement.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-343>345-353-376>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 88-368-372-373-375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Sunday morning through Wednesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.