textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/218 AM.

A warming trend will continue into early next week. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s to 80s across much of the region through Friday, warming to the 80s and 90s over the weekend through Tuesday. There is a chance for 100 degree readings in the warmest valleys on Mothers Day and Monday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

07/311 AM.

Sunday (Mother's Day) and Monday are expected to be the warmest days, coinciding with the peak of the high pressure aloft as well as the weakest onshore flow. The gradients will ultimately be the deciding factor with temperatures. As it stands now, most of the ensemble solutions just barely show gradients going negative to the east and north and if this holds then there should be enough of a sea breeze to hold valley highs in the mid 90s and coastal areas mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. These temps would likely not require any heat hazards. However, 15-20% of the solutions are showing offshore flow close to -3mb which would further delay the sea breeze and could tip the scales towards some low end heat advisories across some of the valleys.

A slow cooling trend is expected to begin Tuesday, but above normal temperatures are expected at least through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

07/1810Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 3400 ft with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in TAFs through 03Z for all TAFs and for the whole period for KPMD and KWJF. After 03Z, moderate to low confidence in remaining sites due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds remaining at KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY through the period, and a 30% chance of IFR conds at KSBA and KPRB 11Z-17Z Fri.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, with cigs as low as BKN004 upon arrival before lifting through the late night/morning hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds remaining through the period.

MARINE

07/811 AM.

SCA level NW winds are expected to strengthen each day through Saturday for the outer waters. Winds may approach Gale Force levels Friday (15% chance), with a better chance (30%) for Gale Force winds Saturday afternoon and evening. SCA level winds are also likely during the late afternoon into evening hours across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into at least western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands through Saturday.

Short period seas will build during this timeframe especially across the outer waters - reaching around 10 feet Friday through Saturday night.

Winds and seas should diminish throughout the day on Sunday. By Monday, conditions should be much calmer and likely below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).