textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/807 PM.

A shallower marine layer is expected over the next few days. A significant warming trend will peak on Wednesday, with well above normal afternoon temperatures, and then continue into Thursday. A push of moisture Tuesday and Wednesday will bring at least a low chance of rain or an isolated storm from Ventura County eastward, and then drier conditions return. Temperatures are then expected to cool heading into the end of the week and the weekend.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

22/222 PM.

For the extended period, models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, trough will sag across the state with cyclonic flow over the area through the weekend. At the surface, moderate onshore flow will continue with some enhancement of northerly offshore gradients next weekend.

Forecast-wise, no dramatic changes to current forecast thinking. Friday through Sunday, the cyclonic flow aloft will usher in a cooling trend for all areas with lowering thicknesses and increased areal coverage of marine layer stratus. Typical onshore winds will continue across interior sections each afternoon and evening. However, with the increase in northerly offshore gradients, there will be an increase in northerly winds across the Santa Ynez Range and the I-5 Corridor. Winds across the western half of the Santa Ynez Range could approach advisory levels next weekend.

AVIATION

23/0549Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD & KWJF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with only a 15 percent chc of IFR conds 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be delayed by up to 2 hours and cig hgt by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of OVC008 conds. VFR conds may not arrive until 18Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a only a 15 percent chc of 4SM BR OVC006 conds 12Z-16Z.

MARINE

22/818 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday. Local gusts could reach 21 kts near Point Conception in the evening. Moderate chances for SCA conditions return to the Outer Waters Thursday afternoon/evening persisting into the weekend. These conditions could reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel at times. Main concern is wind although seas could approach SCA levels later into the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.