textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/416 PM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. The warmest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday and Sunday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

04/107 PM.

For the extended, models are on the same synoptic page. At upper levels, ridge will be a bit "undercut" by a weak upper low, resulting in some lowering of the H5 heights. At the surface, the offshore flow will gradually weaken with weak diurnal flow prevailing by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Forecast-wise, the above synoptic pattern will result in dry and benign weather fore the area. Overall, skies should remain mostly clear through the period, but some stratus/fog could possibly return to the coastal plain by Tuesday or Wednesday. As for temperatures, Sunday will be the warmest day with a gradual cooling trend Monday through Wednesday as ridge weakens and offshore flow weakens and eventually turns weakly onshore. Finally for winds, any offshore winds should remain below advisory levels on Sunday with no wind issues expected Monday through Wednesday.

A bit further out into the following weekend (November 13-16), models are still indicating a wet and unsettled pattern across the area. At this time, there is relatively high confidence in widespread measurable rainfall, but low confidence in timing and amounts. AI ensembles indicate at least a 40-60% chance of rain totals greater than one inch and a 20-40% chance of totals greater than two inches. Obviously, the details of this potential wet weekend will change over the coming days, but everyone should be aware of the potential. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

05/0015Z.

At 2327Z at LAX, there was no inversion and no marine layer.

Overall, high confidence in the 00Z TAF package as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a 10-20% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB between 10Z-17Z Thu.

KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

04/811 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will prevail. For Saturday and Sunday, SCA level seas are expected to continue with winds dropping below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and morning hours and seas will approach SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy, short-period, seas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 AM PST Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).