textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/659 PM.

Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will return Tuesday through Thursday, strongest and warmest on Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

02/232 PM.

High pressure aloft will give way to a weak upper low Friday and Saturday. Over the last several days there have been a smattering of ensemble solutions that have indicated perhaps a sprinkle or two falling but even that seems very unlikely (less than a 10% chance) and probably wouldn't even amount to more than a trace. The most likely outcome is continued dry weather, some increasing clouds and cooler temperatures, but even there highs are expected to remain at least 5-10 degrees above normal.

A strongly tilted ridge will bring 2-5 degrees of warming to the area Sunday, but otherwise clear skies and light winds.

Chances for the first rain in a month increase rapidly early to mid next week with quarter to half inch of rain on average either Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION

02/1930Z.

At 19Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Low confidence in KSBA and south including KLAX 06-17Z with with a 20-50 percent chance of LIFR/VLIFR cigs vsbys, with the highest probably focused across the LA basin. High confidence in VFR conds elsewhere except KPRB where MVFR vis is likely and there is a 10 percent chance of IFR conds or lower between 10-17Z.

Moderate confidence in wind, especially for KVNY after 12Z. There is a 30 percent chance of 36012kt as early as 16Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 50 percent chance that VFR conds prevail. Any east wind component will likely remain below 6 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

02/919 PM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Expecting Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas to gradually diminish through night. Offshore northeast winds will develop each morning near Morro Bay, generally below SCA levels. There is a 40-50% chance for localized east wind gusts near SCA levels near the Channel Islands Wednesday. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday, and SCA winds may linger into the following week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Seas of 4-8 feet will decrease through Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning, there is a 50-60% percent chance of east to northeast SCA winds from Ventura south to Orange County. Northwest winds should increase to SCA levels over the waters early next week, especially Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).