textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

01/259 AM.

Steady cooling trend through Monday with some low clouds and dense fog developing. Gusty west to north winds will form this afternoon and continue through early Tuesday. Widespread moderate to locally strong winds northwest to northeast likely Wednesday through Saturday, with possible showers over the mountains.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

01/259 AM.

Although the synoptic picture remains fairly complex, there is much better agreement now between the EC and the GFS. A trough will swing into the West Coast on Wednesday, moving east into the Great Basin by Thursday. After stalling over the Western CONUS, the trough begins to detach itself from the main upper level flow, cutting off and swinging to the southwest into SoCal late Friday into Saturday. Northerly winds will begin to increase and become widespread through the day on Wednesday, with advisory level winds looking likely at this point, especially across higher elevations. There is even a low risk for high elevation warning level winds late Wednesday into Thursday.

Northerly winds will strengthen come Friday as the upper low detaches and moves across SoCal. Winds will peak sometime Friday through Saturday as upper level support lines up well with the surface level winds, allowing for winds to mix down to the surface. While widespread advisory level winds appear likely at this pointeven at low elevations, higher terrain areas are at risk for damaging, warning level winds.

This system is quite moisture starved (PWATs less than inch), so any significant precipitation looks highly unlikely at this point. However, PWATs are forecast to increase to around of an inch late next weekend into the early second week of March as the upper low siphons some moisture from the south. Still, however, most ensemble members are dry or show very inconsequential precip totals.

Their AI counterparts have pretty solid agreement with each other, but they both differ slightly from the non AI versions. In this case, the AI models keep the low more to the south and east, which would result in weaker winds. Time will tell whether the legacy or new-age models perform better in this scenario.

AVIATION

01/1124Z.

Around 08Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 2600 feet with a temperature around 24 degree Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected for southern valley and desert terminals through at least 06Z Monday.

For terminals north of Point Conception, there is a high to likely chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions through at least 14Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as 18Z. A return of LIFR to IFR conditions should be expected as soon as 03Z, or as late as 08Z.

For coastal terminals south of Point Conception, VFR conditions are expected through at least 02Z Monday except for a moderate to high chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities through 16Z. After 02Z, there is a high to likely chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions, highest for Los Angeles County coastal terminals.

KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities through 16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through at least 02Z Monday. There is a 50 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions or MVFR visibiilties after 02Z Monday, increasing to 70 percent chance by 10Z Monday.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a 20 percent chance of VLIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities after 10Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

01/336 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. High confidence in the sea forecast through Monday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Moderate to high confidence in the wind forecast through the period with higher confidence in the winds for southern waters versus the northern waters through Monday.

For the waters from near Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island and west of the Channel Islands, there is a 60-70 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds this morning, increasing to 70-90 percent chance by this afternoon. Widespread SCA level winds are expected from this evening into early Tuesday with an 80-100 percent chance of SCA conditions. There is a high to likely (50-60 percent) chance of GALES on Monday and Monday night. SCA level winds are likely (60-70 percent) between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, then there is a imminent (80-90 percent) chance of widespread SCA conditions with a high (45-55 percent) chance of GALES between Wednesday night and Friday. There is a low (15-20 percent) chance of STORM FORCE wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday.

For the waters northwest of Point Sal and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a low to moderate (20-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds through Monday morning, then there is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of SCA levelfrom Monday afternoon through Tuesday, highest for the nearshore portions. SCA level winds are likely (55-65 percent) between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, then there is a imminent (75-85 percent) chance of widespread SCA conditions with a high (45-55 percent) chance of GALES between Wednesday night and Friday. There is a very low (10-15 percent) chance of STORM FORCE wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a low to moderate (20-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds this morning, highest across the western portions. Then, there is a likely (60-70 percent) chance of SCA level winds developing between this afternoon and Monday night. Winds will likely diminish below SCA levels between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, then there is a likely (60-70 percent) chance of widespread SCA conditions with a high to likely (50-60 percent) chance of GALES between Wednesday night and Friday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 PM PST Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).