textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/307 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

23/306 AM.

A high pressure ridge along with light to moderate offshore flow will allow temperatures to continue to warm through Thanksgiving. Due to lack of upper-level support, substantial Santa Ana winds are very unlikely. Even across high elevation, wind-prone areas reaching advisory level winds will be a difficult task. Current ensemble suites among several models support this. The most likely solution will be a mild to warm day with clear skies creating the right conditions for a gobblefest on Thanksgiving day.

Still noteworthy amounts of uncertainty regarding the potential for the system next weekend. The 00Z EPS/GEFS/EC-AIFS have shift the trough axis back further east, but the EC-AIFS still is the least enthusiatic. Will have to monitior to see if this starts a trend. The magnitude & position of the Pacific-North American oscillation and the characteristics of the rossby wavelength will have substantial influence in determining the location of trough - and its impacts, if any do occur.

AVIATION

23/0931Z.

At 0930Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.

For 12Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in TAF forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For tonight, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley sites as behavior of potential returning marine layer breeds lower confidence.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG and VSBY restrictions, but low confidence in timing (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (categories could range from IFR to VLIFR). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions developing after 10Z .

MARINE

23/131 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 343. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).