textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/1201 AM.

Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures will occur today through Friday. Look for gusty northwest winds this afternoon and evening. A weak storm with light rain is possible sometime this weekend.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

22/306 AM.

A very weak system will pass through the center of the state on Saturday. It does not have much in the way of dynamics or moisture and will only bring a slight chc of rain with the best chc over the mtns. Even if it does rain it does not look capable of producing anything more than a tenth of an inch of rain. It will bring plenty of clouds and cooler temps. Max temps should cool 4 to 8 degrees and highs across the csts/vlys will only be in the 60s.

Weak ridging will arrive on Sunday and will bring dry conditions, clearing skies and 1 to 3 degrees of warming.

Mdl consensus begins to fall off on Monday. The general consensus is that there will be a trof to the north of the area and fairly strong SW flow over Srn CA. The GFS is most aggressive with the trof and SW flow and some its ensembles are wet. Still not enough to include rain in the fcst, but still a greater than zero chc. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds stream in with the SW flow. Warm air advection from the SW flow will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming despite the increased cloud cover.

Not the best mdl agreement on Tuesday, although if you throw out the GFS it is much better. All mdls show an upper low in the general vcnty of Srn CA. All mdls save for the GFS are dry (including the AI-GFS) but quite a few GFS ensemble members are wet and this is enough to force some slight chc pops into the Tuesday forecast. Better confidence that it will be a mostly cloudy day with max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION

22/0603Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.

Good confidence in TAFs with only a 15 percent chc of MVFR conds at coastal sites from 11Z-17Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chance of 5SM BR BKN025 conds 11Z-17Z . Good confidence in no significant east wind component through the period.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF.

MARINE

22/306 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels this morning. This afternoon through Friday night, high confidence in SCA level northwest winds. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of GALE force winds tonight with short period choppy seas, south of Point Conception. Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through this morning. This afternoon through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through this morning. This afternoon through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds across all the southern Inner Waters. Thursday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel in the late afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).