textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/930 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times from Tuesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

24/346 AM.

Santa Lucia winds (Likely Sub-Advisory) will continue through Friday as the pressure gradients weaken some. Max Temperatures will continue to cool some in Friday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and clear skies.

Quite of a bit of uncertainty continues regarding the weather forecast for this weekend. As is fairly common at this range with amplified large-scale patterns, guidance continues to flip flop back and forth among the array of solutions. This appears to mostly be caused by models inability to resolve the Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation and rossby wave breaks. It also doesn't help that the North Pacific is a data-sparse region.

What is interesting is that the ensemble suites of EC, EC-AIFS, & GFS have trended towards more of a -PNA - persisting into early December. This appears to be cause by potential several troughs over central-north pacific pumping mass into the ridge. This would sustain a -PNA for some time, while rossby wave breaks occur downstream. If this is realized, active weather might be on the table even after this weekend. However, I digress since it is too far out.

All in all, the system this weekend could range from a dry Santa Ana Wind pattern, to a nuisance rain event, or even a storm with snow for high elevations (a few solutions show this). Stay tuned to the National Weather Service as we continue to monitor the situation.

AVIATION

24/1743Z.

At 1653Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 1800 feet. The top of the inversion was 4700 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

High confidence in VLIFR to LIFR conds at KPRB. 20% chance for VFR conds to prevail after FG clears this AM. Timing may be off +/- 2 hours.

Moderate confidence in LIFR to IFR conds for KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB. 20% chance for OVC002-004 conds with vsbys 1-2SM when cigs are present at KLAX, with vsbys less 1SM possible for KSMO and KLGB. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours. 20% chance for VFR conds to prevail, highest at KSMO.

Moderate to high confidence in VFR conds for remaining coastal TAFS. 20% chance for LIFR to IFR conds sometime 06Z-18Z, highest for KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for OVC002-004 conds with vsbys 1-2SM when cigs are present. 15% chance for VFR conds to prevail. Moderate to high confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for brief VLIFR conds 12Z-18Z.

MARINE

24/816 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through at least this afternoon, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue. Seas may linger at or above 10 feet through late tonight. For late tonight through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, winds and seas are expected to increase to SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds and seas developing.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all the southern Inner Waters. For Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, increasing to a 60% chance Tuesday night into Wednesday, then decreasing to a 30% chance Wednesday night and Thursday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Friday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 343-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).