textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

05/1151 PM.

Weak onshore flow will continue to bring limited low cloud cover to the coasts and coastal valleys each night through morning over the next several days as temperatures warm across the region. Interior temperatures will likely reach 100 degrees or higher across some of the interior valleys Tuesday through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for non-coastal areas starting at 10 AM Tuesday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

06/251 AM.

Above normal temperatures across the region will continue through the extended period as the high pressure aloft starts to shift northeastward into the northern Rockies Friday night through the weekend. As a result, 500 mb heights will decrease across Southwest California, paired with increasing onshore gradients, and temperatures will start to decrease over the weekend. However, these temperatures will still remain near or above normal, mainly across interior areas.

However, as the high pressure moves northeast, some disturbances start to move into the region and open the door to some southwesterly flow aloft and potential monsoonal moisture as early as this weekend into next week. While the current forecast remains dry, this could eventually justify the mention of some showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and deserts by next Monday as both the EC/GFS are indicating some light QPF across these areas.

Additionally, the EC/GFS ensembles and their AI ensembles have been hinting these past few days at yet another, possibly higher, warm up mid- to- late next week.

AVIATION

06/1258Z.

At 1227Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 2300 ft deep with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF & KPMD).

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat may be off +/- 3 hours and CIG heights +/- 300 ft. Confidence in CIG forecast for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB is lowest due to disorganized marine layer stratus. CIGs at those locations may arrive briefly, and scatter and reform through 18Z Mon. There is a 30% chance of IFR-MVFR conds at the aforementioned sites after 09Z Sun.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low confidence from through 18Z due to likely disorganized stratus, with a 30% chance that CIGs do not arrive or form briefly at times. No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

06/112 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds persisting through at least Thursday across the Outer Waters. There is a 20-30% chance of GALE Force winds Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Winds will likely be strongest near Point Conception, Channel Islands, and the far northern outer waters. Short-period, advisory level, choppy seas will gradually increase and reach around 10 ft by mid-week and then subside below advisory levels on Friday into the weekend.

SCA level NW-W winds will reach into the inner waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon and evening hours starting today through Wednesday or Thursday. For the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles County, winds will increase to SCA levels this afternoon across the western portion, through the Anacapa Passage to near Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, local gusts during the late afternoon and evening hours are possible for the aforementioned waters through Tuesday or Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT tonight for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).