textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

01/223 PM.

Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Thursday, with significant warming Friday through Sunday. Gusty north winds on Thursday will be followed by a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event Friday through Saturday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

01/254 PM.

Offshore winds will weaken on Sunday, but with the ridge still in place, it will remain warm.

On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall. The offshore flow turns onshore and this will lead to 3 to 6 degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max temps will end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

There is some disagreement on the upper level pattern on Tuesday. The GFS has more of a trof like pattern while the EC favors ridging. The ensembles lean towards the EC and brings 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most areas.

The AI-GFS is dry through the next 14 days. The AI-EC however does show a system in the area around the 11th. Both mdls continue to indicate continued above normal max temps.

AVIATION

02/0610Z.

At 0519Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs. Cigs will shift between layers between 015 and 050 through 20Z. SCT conds are very likely after 20Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 015 and 050 through 20Z. Good confidence in SCT conds aft 20Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 015 and 050 through 20Z. Good confidence in SCT conds aft 20Z.

MARINE

01/1039 PM.

There is a chance of spotty showers through early Thursday morning north of Point Conception.

Widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected on Thursday across the majority of the coastal waters. A Gale Watch was issued for low- end GALES across the Outer waters Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours Thursday night. Local gusts to 35 knots are also possible across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and the inner waters north of Point Sal.

Expecting seas to build quickly on Thursday, peaking Thursday evening. Seas could reach SCA levels 10-12 feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters should peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch remains in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM PDT Friday for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).