textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/818 PM.

Dense fog to return this evening along the coasts and some valleys lasting through Sunday morning. Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday through Tuesday, then will cool each day thereafter. Low chance for light rain across northern areas next weekend. Followed by a chance for widespread rain during Christmas week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

13/216 PM.

Offshore flow is generally expected through Thursday. LAX-DAG gradient may approach neutral Wednesday morning indicated by ECWMF guidance. By Friday, GEFS/EC are in agreement with onshore trends. However, there is a handful of ensemble members that remain neutral or even slightly negative.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week despite slight cooling each day through Saturday. Exception will be only the coast where Max Ts may cool to near normal Friday or Saturday depending on how quickly gradients trend onshore. Dense Fog will return whenever this occurs. Max Ts will be in the 60s to low 70s by Saturday.

The latest CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook is showing likely above normal precipitation across the region. There is a small indication that there may be an "appetizer" for northern areas over the weekend, but solutions remain light. The biggest story is Christmas week where Santa may bring presents in the liquid form. The ensemble suites of GFS, EC, and EC-AI are pretty adamant for widespread rain with a "sweet spot": 23rd through the 26th with lingering chances into the following weekend. High uncertainty in timing and amounts at this time.

AVIATION

13/2353Z.

At 2345Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperatures of 21 degrees Celsius.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs. Low to moderate confidence for coastal sites due to uncertainties in timing of flight category changes which could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys will be common across coastal TAFs tonight into Sunday morning. VLIFR conditions with VSBYS 1/4 to 1/2 mile likely (70%) tonight for KSMX and KSBP, with varying chances for remaining coastal TAFS (KSBA/KLGB 50%, KOXR/KCMA/KSMO/KLAX 20-30%).

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys will be common tonight into Sunday morning. There will be a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions with VSBYS 1/4 to 1/2 mile later tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF, with MVFR vsbys due to haze likely at times tonight into Sunday morning.

MARINE

13/959 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, especially from Point Conception southward.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect much of the coastal waters today through Sunday. The best chances for dense fog will be from the overnight through morning hours with scattered pockets likely through the afternoon and evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.