textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/157 PM.

Weak northeast winds are expected to develop this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region that will persist through the first half of next week. Cooler conditions to follow with a growing potential for a storm system towards the end of next week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

24/222 PM.

Weak northwest to northeast winds will continue Tuesday then weaken into Wednesday. This will keep temperatures largely unchanged with highs in the 70s to lower 80s most common which is right around normal for this time of the year.

The pattern will start to change around Thursday, with onshore flow returning, temperatures dropping, and low pressure forming over the West Coast. This will open the storm window over California, with a growing chance of a rain impacting the local area as early as Friday but more so for the weekend.

There is low confidence in the exact solution as the EC models bring rain earlier and then drive keep a more powerful second pulse to our south, while the GFS creates a cutoff low to our west and brings the more impactful rain into our area beginning Sunday night. The NBM averages it all out with low chances of rain beginning as early as Friday and continuing into the following week. Amounts anywhere between 0.5" and 2" seem reasonable. It is too early to comment on rainfall rates, or specific amounts at specific locations.

There is a 90+% chance for rain sometime in the Oct 30 through Nov 2 timeframe, likely lasting several hours. Halloween activities are likely to be impacted. At this point, the most likely outcome is for a moderate-level storm in terms of strength and impacts, with a low but present risk for a higher level storm.

AVIATION

24/2230Z.

At 2215Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

24/248 AM.

Steep seas near 10 feet will continue through early this morning for the outer waters. 15-20 knot North winds are likely nearshore this morning around Malibu, and West winds over many nearshore waters in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, high confidence in quiet conditions this weekend. Northwest winds will increase next week. SCA conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday for the waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.