textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

26/109 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through the middle of next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected again on Thanksgiving Day before cooling develops over the weekend as an upper low approaches the area.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

26/200 PM.

Models have come into good agreement that the next upper level trough arriving along the West coast Saturday will take an inside track east of the Sierra mountains Sunday and Monday which likely means no rain for southern California, but cooler than normal temperatures and possibly some gusty north to northeast winds at times, especially in the mountains. The models are keeping most of the stronger winds farther east but can't rule out some low level advisory winds in some areas into early next week.

Otherwise, a quiet first half of next week is expected with temperatures near seasonal norms. With the trough passing to the east and northerly flow aloft skies should remain mostly free of marine layer stratus. There are some model solutions showing rain later next week but models continue to provide a wide range of possible outcomes, from dry to very wet.

AVIATION

27/0218Z.

Around 0032Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a weak sfc based inversion with a top near 600 ft and a temperature of 24 C.

Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF Package. There is a 30% chance for V/LIFR conditions from 14Z to 17Z Thursday at KPRB. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions with no significant east wind component expected thru fcst pd.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

26/118 PM.

Conditions will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving. However, Localized gusty offshore winds will affect the nearshore waters from Cayucos to Morro Bay and from Point Mugu to Topanga Beach at times through Thursday morning. Winds could gusts to 25 kt.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and/or seas are expected across the Outer Waters likely starting Friday morning and persisting at times through the weekend. Periods of Sub-SCA conditions are probable especially within 10 to 30NM from the shore and during the morning hours. Chances for SCA conditions within 5NM are low, but highest on Friday, and near Point Conception.

Conditions are likely to remain below SCA levels for the inner waters south of Point Conception during the aforementioned period. Moderate confidence in seas peaking 10 to 12 feet across Outer Waters and 4 to 6 feet across the Santa Barbara Channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.