textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/243 AM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue through at least early next week. The hot daytime and warm night conditions will bring elevated risks for heat illness. Thursday through Sunday will generally be the hottest of the next seven days.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

22/252 AM.

The upper high will sit atop of the four corners region through Monday and then is forecast to shift a little to the east on Tuesday. Hgts will remain above normal - between 594 dam and 596 dam. The onshore flow will increase through the period. Not the best confidence in the low cloud forecast as the warm sea sfc temps and mid level monsoon moisture tend to suppress marine layer development. The monsoon push will likely bring some mtn build up in the afternoon over the mtns as well as low but not zero chc of convection. The the onshore flow will bring a slight cooling trend to the csts and some vlys but max and min temps will remain well above normal and the heat advisories will continue through Monday. By Tuesday the shift of the upper high and strong onshore flow to the east should bring enough cooling to allow the advisories to expire.

Long range mdls still suggest another heat event later next week.

AVIATION

22/1005Z.

At 0830Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1600 ft with a max temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 20 percent chc of IFR cig/vis 11Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence the remainder of TAFs VFR conds could arrive +/- 90 min from fcst time and cig hgts could be off by +/- 300 ft.

Low confidence in low cloud fcst for Thursday morning both if there will be clouds and timing of their arrival.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may arrive as early as 1630Z or as late as 1830Z. Low confidence in TAF aft 23/06Z with low clouds possible at any time from 06Z-12Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of 2SM OVC005 conds 11Z-16Z.

MARINE

22/214 AM.

Northwest winds will strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels today, and will likely continue through the weekend. Chances also increase for SCA level west to northwest winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of Gale Force wind gusts across the outer waters this afternoon through at least Thursday night, and 20% chance into the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday late afternoon and evening.

A series of moderate period southerly swells will move through the waters through the week and likely beyond, along with a long period southern hemisphere swell arriving late this week. These swells may impact south facing harbors, including the Port San Luis area.

BEACHES

22/214 AM.

Over the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Fausto, located 700 NM SW of southern Baja, will move WNW between 15 to 20 N latitude through at least the next 5 days. This system is bringing an elevated South-Southwesterly swell into the region. Therefore, High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect through Tuesday night.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive later this week/Thursday night and add to the continuing swell from Fausto. This will create additional hazardous beach conditions late this week and weekend. Additional Beach Hazards Statements and Advisories will likely be needed during this time.

Looking beyond the forecast period, a series of tropical systems are forecast to develop off the coast of Mexico and move to the northwest, likely producing multiple rounds of southerly swells over the next couple of weeks.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-355>358-368>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 349-350. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).