textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/159 AM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with locally gusty north to northeast winds peaking Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue at least through Saturday, but there is growing potential for a winter storm next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

16/246 AM.

The offshore flow ends pretty quickly Friday into Saturday and onshore flow increases on Sunday. At the upper levels the large upper high will be pushed to the south and westerly flow will set up over the state. Hgts will fall through the period and end up around 579 dam. The marine layer will be pretty wiped out Friday but will reform by Saturday morning when plenty of coastal low clouds are forecast in the morning. By Sunday mostly cloudy skies will move over the area as they advect in with the westerly flow. Max temps will fall each of the three days and by Sunday max temps will end up mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the csts/vlys. Despite all of the cooling max temps will be above normal all three days.

All eyes on next week as the both the EC-AI and GFS-AI mdl continue to show a period of storminess developing. The GFS is faster than the EC. Exact timing and details are still quite murky but there is a chc of rain each day Mon through Fri (this is a result of many different mdl solutions the actual period of rain will likely be 2 or 2 and half days south of Pt Conception and 3 or 3 and half days for the Central Coast). Some solutions are quite wet so people with travel plans should keep an eye on this developing forecast. One thing is fairly certain: this will not be a snow maker as the flow is from the south which will keep the snow levels well above the major passes.

AVIATION

16/1104Z.

Around 10Z, the marine layer was around 400 feet deep at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast, except moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal terminals from KOXR southward.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a high to likely chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at coastal terminals south of KOXR through 16Z, and again after 08Z Wednesday.

KLAX...There is a 60 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions through at least 16Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 15Z or late as 1730Z. There is a 10 percent chance of MVFR visibilities lingering until as late as 22Z. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

16/304 AM.

High confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then moderate to high confidence thereafter.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 50-80 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds through Friday, highest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 30-40 percent chance of widespread GALES each afternoon and evening through Wednesday night, but local GALE force gusts are possible each afternoon and evening from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island. Winds will likely diminish some for Thursday and Friday with chances of SCA level winds decreasing to a 40-70 percent chance, highest Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island, but seas will approach SCA levels for late week.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday, but there is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds across the western portions. Winds will increase on Wednesday with chances for SCA level winds increasing to a high (40-50 percent) chance. Gusty north to northeast winds reaching SCA levels are possible nearshore on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels for Friday and Saturday.

A shallow marine layer depth across the inner and southern coastal waters will bring areas of dense fog this morning and potentially lingering through Wednesday morning at times.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 342-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).