textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/227 AM.

Widespread rain will develop later today and continue into Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm's wake by the weekend for dry and warmer conditions.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

21/227 AM.

Weak ridging and weak (1 to 3 mb) offshore flow from both the east and north will be in place for the entire xtnd period. The best upper level support will be on Saturday when there will be 30 to 40 mph gusts csts/vlys and as high as 50 mph in the mtns. The winds will be weaker starting Sunday.

High pressure and offshore flow should keep the skies clear.

There will be decent warming on Saturday (4 to 6 degrees) and then 1 or 2 degrees of extra warming Sun and Mon. Tuesday will cool some as the ridge and offshore flow weaken substantially. Cst/Vly temps will be a little above normal while the interior will be several degrees blo normal.

A quick look at the AI long range models shows dry conditions through the end of the month.

AVIATION

21/1722Z.

At 1715Z, at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Timing of rain could be off by +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 50% chance of MVFR CIGs with the rain.

There is a 10-20% chance of TSRA through the period with the chances spreading south and east this afternoon and evening.

KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain may be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 50% chance that CIGs remain at VFR levels through the period. THere is a 20% chance of TSRA after 00Z. There is 30% chance of an easterly wind component of 7-10 knots after 22Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of rain may be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 50% chance that CIGs remain at VFR levels through the period.

MARINE

21/713 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, there is a 70-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds around Point Conception with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. Late Thursday and continuing through Friday night, winds are expected to increase to SCA levels. For Saturday through Sunday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Friday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. On Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this evening, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds across all the southern Inner Waters. For Thursday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds on Thursday and Friday.

Today through Thursday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all of the coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and even waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 348>353. (See LAXFFALOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flood Watch in effect from 4 PM PDT this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).