textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/306 AM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will be confined to the coastal areas, mostly north of Pt Conception, through much of this week. Warm conditions are expected away from the immediate coast slight cooling is forecast Friday through the weekend.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

20/306 AM.

Pretty benign weather is forecast for the xtnd period. Srn CA will be sandwiched between SW flow to the northwest and SSE to the SE. The current forecast shows only minor day to day variations in temperatures. Max temps will mostly run 2 to 4 degrees above normal. The one caveat is that the EC bring neutral flow in the E/W direction and actual offshore flow from the north during the Tue/Wed period. If this develops max temps will come in much warmer than currently fcst for some areas.

The morning low cloud pattern will be similar to the short term with good confidence that the Central Coast will see plenty of morning low clouds. Lower confidence for areas south of Pt Conception with low cloud development pretty dependent on whether an eddy spins up or not.

The area will be on the fringe of the monsoon transport through the period. It is most likely the the convection will stay to the south and east of LA county with only a 5 to 10 percent chc of it reaching LA county on any given afternoon.

AVIATION

20/1730Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the weak marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2900 feet with a temperature of 28 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, and KVNY.

Good confidence in TAF for KPRB with a 15% chance for LIFR conds after 10Z.

Good confidence in TAF for KSBP and KSMX as timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours of forecast. Cig height may be off +/- 200 feet.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KOXR and KCMA as timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours. 30% chance for no low clouds.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KLAX, KLGB, and KSMO, with a 40-50% chance for VFR conds to prevail, highest at KSBA/KSMO. Timing of arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours.

All LA/Ventura county sites have a 15-20% chance of SHRA/TSTM from 03Z-15Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF after 21/05Z with good confidence before. There is a 40% chance of no low clouds. Timing of arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours. 20% chance for cigs 003-004. 15-20% chance of SHRA/TSTM from 03Z-15Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

20/730 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in periods of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters each afternoon and evening into next week, thus a long duration SCA has been issued through Sunday morning. This may need to be extended into next week as we progress through the weekend. Local gusts of 20-25 kt will be possible across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast today, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots starting Friday.

Aside from gusts of 20-25 knots reaching the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Friday, widespread SCA conditions are not likely across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception. Localized gusts near 20 knots are possible near Point Dume and the San Pedro Channel during the afternoon through early evening hours starting Friday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-343>345-351-353-371>373-375-376-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).