textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/301 AM.

Mild weather is expected through the weekend, with daytime highs generally within a few degrees of normal. May gray low clouds and fog will spread over the coasts and valleys each night through morning period. Monday into at least the middle of next week, well below normal temperatures are likely with areas of gusty winds.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

24/302 AM.

A cold low pressure system (for late May) will push into the region by Wednesday and likely be slow to depart. If it tracks closer to the coast (20 percent chance), then we'd probably see a few showers for interior mountains, especially northern Ventura County to eastern LA County. The most likely scenario is mainly dry conditions outside of potential marine layer drizzle as the marine layer deepens rapidly in response the low pressure system.

Cold northwesterly flow aloft may break down the marine inversion, which would allow for only patchy low clouds Wednesay and Thursday mornings and faster clearing during the day. When the low is closest and 500 mb heights bottom out, there will be some cooling for areas across the interior (like the Antelope Valley). Thus highs regionwide will be in the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesay and Thursday. Starting Friday temperatures will trend upwards and the low travels to the east, becoming within a few degrees of normal on Saturday (highs in the 70s to 80s away from the coast).

Surface pressure gradients will remain moderate-to- strongly onshore through at least Thursday before gradually weakening in the storms wake. Thus some amount of May Grey overnight to morning clouds will continue each day, and gusty near advisory level southwest winds will occur each evening across the Antelope Valley through at least Thursday with gusty near advisory level Sundowners potentially returning in the storms wake heading into next weekend.

AVIATION

24/1011Z.

At 08Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4700 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts as flight category changes could be up to 2 hours off.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF.

MARINE

23/823 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. Monday afternoon expect increasing NW winds, then starting Tuesday, high confidence in both winds and seas increasing to SCA levels. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds Tuesday night. For Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, conds are likely to drop below SCA levels across the waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds Monday afternoon and evening. For Tuesday through early Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds (strongest in the afternoon and evening hours) and seas. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. For Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, conds should drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Tuesday and Tuesday night, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and a 30-40% chance of SCA winds over PZZ655 Tuesday night. Otherwise, moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.