textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/100 AM.

Scattered showers will continue this morning and then taper off in the afternoon. Dry conditions and a warming trend will kick off Thursday and peak on Friday with a weak Santa Ana wind event. Clouds and cooling Saturday will lead to a chance of rain Sunday. Periods of rain and low elevation snow are likely all next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

11/257 AM.

Friday's ridge will be pushed away by an approaching low on Saturday. Clouds will advance into the state in the SW flow ahead of the low. The offshore flow will end and gradients will be near neutral. With the clouds and without the offshore flow max temps will fall 4 to 6 degrees across the csts and vlys. Look for max temps across the csts/vlys to end up mostly in the mid to upper 60s with a smattering of 70 degree readings.

Sunday will mark the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather. There will be a chc of morning rain across the Central Coast with rain becoming more likely in the afternoon. South of Pt Conception It will be dry in the morning and then a chc of rain will develop in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a quarter inch. Cloudy skies and rapidly falling hgts will lead to 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across the Central Coast and 4 to 8 degrees elsewhere. Highs will mostly be in the mid 60s across the csts and vlys.

What was once going to be a series of separate storms now looks a parade of entangled low pressure systems Sunday night through Wednesday. It should be wet every day. Ensemble based predictions show 2 to 4 inches across the coasts and 3 to 6 inches in the mtns over the Sunday night to Wednesday time period. Snow levels will be quite low 6000 ft at first but possibly falling to 4000 ft or lower by Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a potential for significant snow fall accumulations.

Stay tuned to this product by our NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard office for the latest developments in this upcoming multi day storm.

AVIATION

11/1157Z.

At 0950Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to at least 9000 feet.

Low confidence in TAFs through 16Z as cig and vis will vary frequently in the wake of a cold front. Better confidence in slowly improving conditions after 16Z. Then, lower confidence after 08Z Thursday morning with a 25 percent chc of LIFR conds developing at any site.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 16Z. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as the rain system moves out of the area. Better confidence in improving conds after 16Z. There is a 25 percent chc of 1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 5kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 16Z. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as the rain system moves out of the area. Better confidence in improving conds after 16Z. There is a 25 percent chc of 1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z.

MARINE

11/108 AM.

The cold front responsible for widespread Gale Force winds up to 40 knots across the Santa Barbara Channel and the waters west to northwest of the Channel Islands, including nearshore along the Central Coast has moved east and is mostly over land. Winds have weakened below Gale Force levels, but Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue into this morning or afternoon. Large and hazardous seas will also peak overnight and are expected to improve through tonight. There is a moderate chance for SCA's to be extended through late tonight across the Outer Waters, especially northwest of the Channel Islands. SCA conditions will continue for the waters southwest to southeast of the Channel Islands (including adjacent to the coasts of Los Angeles and Orange Counties) through this morning and seas will be choppy and hazardous during the same timeframe.

There is a moderate chance (50-60%) that combination of NW winds and seas will reach SCA levels across the Outer Waters and potentially nearshore Central Coast waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday. These winds may sneak into western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel as well as portions of the San Pedro Channel, albeit likely weaker relatively.

Another storm system will enter the region Sunday or Monday, bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain to the entirety of the coastal waters. There is a moderate (40-60% chance) for widespread Gale Force winds early next week.

BEACHES

11/1224 AM.

Southwest and west facing shores will be particularly vulnerable to developing the southerly swell and surf through tonight, especially the Santa Barbara South Coast, Ventura County Line, Leo Carrillo, and Zuma Beach.

Swell and surf will likely drop below high surf advisory criteria for Thursday, but high surf is likely to develop again from Friday. It is likely that the swell and surf will remain at or above high surf criteria through the upcoming weekend.

The latest swell models continue to highlight a period of very large waves developing for early next week. There is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of widespread high surf between Sunday night and Wednesday as a combination of southwesterly and west-northwesterly swells impact the coasts. Sets above 10 feet will be possible across all coasts, but higher chances for west to northwest facing coasts. There is a 20-40 percent chance of damaging sets developing between Tuesday and Wednesday, highest for northwest-facing shores along the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST early this morning for zones 38-342-344-345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 6 AM PST early this morning for zones 88-362-369-370-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning remains in effect until 4 AM PST early this morning for zones 376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST early this morning for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).