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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SYNOPSIS

28/159 PM.

Extreme heat with moderate to high heat risk will peak Friday through at least Sunday as a rare very strong ridge builds into the region. No significant relief from the heat is on the horizon once the heat wave starts. Night to morning clouds will diminish or disappear, leaving sunny skies.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

28/156 PM.

Widespread MODERATE TO HIGH heat risk is very likely to return Friday into the weekend. Now is the time to start socializing this threat with your community and family and consider rescheduling activities that might but you or your loved ones at risk. Have a plan to stay cool, especially if work or other activities take you outside mid-morning to mid-evening hours or do not have access to air conditioning.

Moderate to high heat risk will continue through at least Sunday and there is a 40 percent chance that the ridge will either weaken little into early next week or rebuild just to our north by mid week. Do not expect a significant cool down anytime soon. Moderate to high heat risk and additional heat Watches/Warnings/Advisories will likely be needed at some point next week.

High fire risk will continue for most areas away from the coast during this time. Take care with fire ignition sources.

AVIATION

28/1654Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBP, KSMX, KOXR, KLAX, KSMO, KLGB and KCMA, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs as timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

For KSBA, there is a 20% chance of IFR conditions 10Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that CIGs could return at MVFR levels tonight. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

28/111 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds across western sections of PZZ670/673 this evening through Wednesday evening.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds this evening then a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday through Sunday in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Seas are expected to hover near 8-10 feet across the waters away from the coasts much of the week. A southerly swell from Hurricane Genevieve will continue across the coastal waters through this weekend. This south swell may impact south facing harbors, including Port San Luis.

BEACHES

28/111 PM.

An extended period of a combination of moderate to long period southerly swells will continue through this week and into the upcoming weekend. A long 17-20 second period SSW Southern Hemisphere swell will continue to impact our area through mid week, then will be enhanced by southerly swell from Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve, moving into the coastal waters today.

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Wednesday (except through Saturday along the Central Coast) due to the increased risk of dangerous rip currents and elevated surf. There have been numerous ocean rescues reported.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for the incoming southerly swell due to Hurricane Genevieve, particularly for south facing beaches (such as from Manhattan Beach to Port Hueneme along the Malibu Coast, and from Long Beach to the Palos Verdes Peninsula). This swell will peak around 3-5 feet at 12-15 seconds from 160-180 degrees.

Additionally, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Wednesday evening through Friday evening for the Ventura and Los Angeles County Coasts. High tides of 6.2-7.0 feet will peak in the evening hours. In conjunction with the highest expected surf from the Hurricane Genevieve southerly swell, the best potential for minor coastal flooding impacts is expected Wednesday and Thursday evening. Generally minor impacts are expected, such as pooling of seawater over low lying coastal areas in susceptible areas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PDT Friday for zones 378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).


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