textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/1203 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through the end of next week. High temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

22/1224 AM.

Weak ridging xtng up from the SW will continue over the state through Thanksgiving. Hgts will rise some through Thanksgiving with the EC forecasting a more significant jump to 585 dam compared to the GFS more mild 578 dam. Weak to moderate offshore flow will occur all three days (Tue, Wed and Thu) and this should keep any low clouds away. Conditions will be dry with fairly low humidities.

Max temps will warm all three days. Current forecast splits the difference between the warmer EC and cooler GFS. So it could end up 3 or 4 degrees warmer than fcst. Max temps will reach or exceed normals on Wednesday and then will be at least 3 to 6 degrees over normal on Thanksgiving.

The ridge will give way to weak troffing on Friday and there will be large reduction in offshore flow as well. This may lead to the return of some low clouds across the coasts in the mornings. Look for a noticeable cool down of 3 to 6 degrees. Some sort of retrograding inside slider is forecast to affect the area next weekend. There is much uncertainty with this forecast and the ensembles are all over the place. Blended and algorithmically adjusted ensemble guidance shows about a 20 percent chc of rain both Sat and Sun which seems like a reasonable first guess. Since this system comes from an overland route it will not carry much moisture so even if it does rain the amounts should not be much.

AVIATION

22/1129Z.

At 0939Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 600 ft and a temperature of 16 C.

Overall, good confidence in 12Z TAF Package. 10% chc of LIFR conditions thru 16Z Sat, and again after 09Z Sun at KPRB.

Lgt-Mdt turbc and LLWS possible over and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chc for east wind component reaching 8 kts thru 17Z Sat, then 30% chc after 09Z Sun thru end of fcst period.

KBUR...Good confidence in cig/vis portion of TAF. Wind speed and direction may change randomly through 19Z. Moderate confidence in winds thereafter.

MARINE

22/304 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas with wind gusts approaching SCA levels at times (especially S of pt. Conception) is expected through the weekend. SCA conditions may linger through mid-week for waters 30NM from shore. Moderate chances for a combination of SCA winds and seas to return next weekend.

Inside the California Bight, Santa Ana winds will continue to impact nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through this afternoon, with winds reaching Santa Cruz and Anacapa islands at times. Conditions will improve Saturday evening into next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).