textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

17/451 PM.

A cooler storm system will continue to spread rain across the area through tonight, mainly across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Lingering showers may continue into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures. Another storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into Friday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

18/357 AM.

Showers may continue through Friday as the low pressure center associated with the Thursday rain moves through. The most likely outcomes is for rain totals for Thursday through Friday to fall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range, with 1 to 2 inches in the favored mountains and hills. There are still about 30% of the projections that favor double those amounts, which includes some of the AI models that have shown some skill with the recent storms.

The vast majority of our projections show a big change in the weather starting this weekend, with drier and warmer conditions through the Thanksgiving holiday week.

AVIATION

18/1210Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. MVFR to VFR conds will prevail, altho there is a 10-20 percent chance of at least brief LIFR or lower cigs/vsbys. Where it does occur, flight category improvements are likely between 16-18Z. -SHRA indicates 20-40 percent chance of showers and timing may be off by 2 hours.

There is a 10-20 percent chc of a TSTM through 21Z KSBA and north and 20-02Z elsewhere.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40 percent chance of -shra through 02Z. There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM 20-02Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40 percent chance of -shra 19-02Z. There is a 15 percent chc of a TSTM 20-02Z.

MARINE

18/117 AM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast SCA seas will persist through this afternoon. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and return late Thursday (50-70 percent chance) with SCA winds continuing into at least Friday and SCA seas through the weekend.

Inside the Southern California Bight, conditions will likely remain below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing late Thursday or Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters through this afternoon, focused south of Point Conception in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).