textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/905 AM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a chance of rain next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

16/238 AM.

Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas.

The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north of Point Conception.

AVIATION

16/1753Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of change groups may be off +/- 2 hours. Lgt LLWS & turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura counties after 17/10Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. However, there is a non-zero chance that patchy MVFR CIGs develop between 17/08Z-13Z. There is a 60% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8kts between 10Z and 17Z. 30% chance of reaching 10 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MARINE

16/756 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones. However, localized gale force gusts are possible through this morning. Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning and then diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts across the western portion this evening. Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through around midnight. Starting early Friday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to Malibu on Friday morning, there is a 30% chance for Gale Force winds immediately nearshore especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).