textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/227 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds to portions of southern California today. Cold conditions will bring freezing conditions to some areas each morning today and Friday. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

04/303 AM.

Good agreement with all medium range mdls and ensembles. Ridging is forecast to persist over the area. Hgts will increase to at least 586 dam by mid week.

Offshore flow will persist through the period and should eliminate or at least greatly minimize the low cloud coverage. The Long Beach area and western SBA county stand the greatest chc of seeing some morning low clouds. The offshore flow will not be strong enough to generate any advisory level winds.

That leaves the temperatures, which will be the main talking point for the xtnd forecast. It looks like there will be three days of warming everywhere with just a little nearshore cooling Wednesday as the offshore flow weakens some. Went above guidance for the Tu and Wed temps as usually the blended algorithms are slow to catch on to events that are well out of the norm.

Right now it looks like there will be 2 to 4 degrees of warming each day except Tuesday and for the coastal cooling Wednesday. Tuesday should see 3 to 6 degrees of warming. Max temps Tue and Wed will end up 10 to 15 locally 20 degrees over normal. Vly temps will be in the 80s and there is an outside shot of isolated 90 or 91 degree readings.

AVIATION

04/1827Z.

At 1801Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in the current forecast, except low-to-moderate confidence for KPRB. There is a 40% chance that conditions will remain MVFR or VFR tonight at KPRB.

Periods of moderate low- level wind shear are possible through 20Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of east wind component between 6-8 kt from 05Z-14Z Fri.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

04/854 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds.

At east-facing harbors, including Avalon Harbor on Catalina Island and Smugglers Cove on Santa Cruz Island, there is a 40-50 percent chance of east winds affecting these harbors today.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Friday morning, then there is a high-to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level winds between Friday afternoon through Sunday. There is a moderate chance of SCA level winds lingering into Monday afternoon and evening.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a high- to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of gusty northeast to east winds this morning, highest between Rincon Point to Santa Monica and into the San Pedro Channel. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels this afternoon, but there is a moderate-to-high (30 to 50 percent) chance of SCA level winds redeveloping again tonight through Friday morning. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels through the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).