textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/1103 PM.

A warming trend will begin today and peak on Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The marine layer will shrink during this time, with overnight low clouds and fog limited to coastal areas.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

21/203 PM.

Broad troffing will likely cover the state later this week and into the weekend. The GFS does favor a ridge on Sunday but the EC, the EC-AI and many ensembles show the trof hanging on to the coast.

The onshore gradients will be fairly week through the period and there will be some weak offshore flow from the north during the mornings. This and the fact the troffing is not very sharp or dynamic will likely result in only a patchy marine layer stratus pattern.

Max temps will cool a little on most of the days, but most temps will remain a few degrees above normal. Blended ensemble guidance shows 4 to 8 degrees of cooling on Sunday, but this may be over done given the 586 fcst hgts and offshore flow from the north in the morning.

Distant tropical cyclones may send another round of swells and large surf and dangerous rip currents to south or southwest facing coasts by late this weekend. We could see some increasing mid to high clouds well ahead of these systems.

AVIATION

22/0603Z.

At 0508Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPMD & KWJF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with VFR transition to occur with in an hour of fcst time.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR and KVNY with a 15 percent chc of MVFR cigs 12Z-17Z.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 25 percent chc of MVFR cigs 11Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Flight cat transition's may be off by +/- 2 hours and cig hgt by +/- 500 ft. There is a 20 percent chc of no low clouds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for no low clouds. Low clouds could arrive as late as 13Z. Cigs may be as low as BKN020. Any east wind component is expected to remain less than 6kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF with a 15 percent chc of BKN012 conds 12Z-17Z.

MARINE

21/911 PM.

Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west to northwest winds increasing in the afternoon hours today into early Wednesday, including across the nearshore Central Coast waters. Winds are expected to decrease some Wednesday with only a 30-40% chance for SCAs (highest across the northern-most outer waters), then SCA northwest winds may return to the outer waters, nearshore central coast waters, and potentially the Santa Barbara Channel as early as late Thursday into the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).