textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/755 PM.

Showers over the area have diminished, with just a few isolated light showers this evening. Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this week. Gusty northerly winds will affect much of the area on Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

14/234 AM.

As is typical with the passage of an inside slider, a Santa Ana wind event will set up. About 4 mb of offshore flow will develop from both the N and E. There is not much upper level support to help the gradients out, but even so there will likely be low end advisory level gusts in the windier locations.

Downsloping winds will bring 3 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the csts and vlys. The absence of cool air advection will allow the interior to warm 2 to 4 degrees.

Due west flow moves in at the upper levels on Saturday. There will still be 2 to 3 degrees of offshore flow in the morning, but with no upper support it will only generate sub advisory canyon winds. Max temps will continue to warm with the offshore flow and 3 to 5 degrees of additional warm seems likely. This will bring max temps up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of csts/vlys which is 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

The pattern will shift on Sunday as a large upper low moves closer to the Pacific NW. Srn CA will not feel the effects of the low, but the switch to onshore flow will bring a chc of coastal low clouds along with 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across most of the csts and vlys.

Mdls and ensembles continue to struggle with the strength and location of the upper low on Monday. The AI-mdls favor the GFS solution of a slower and colder track. Right now the algorithmically adjusted blended ensemble forecast brings only a slight chc of rain to the north of Point Conception. The AI- solutions along with the GFS would favor a better chc of rain across most of the area. Still its 7 days away and there will be plenty of time to seek mdl convergence. No matter what happens with the rain it will be a much cooler day by as much as 8 degrees.

AVIATION

14/1130Z.

At 0831Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in TAFs. KSBP, KSMX, KLGB and KLAX have a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs aft 15/11Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN008 conds 15/12Z-15/17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

14/202 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds. For Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. On Friday and Saturday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but only a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).