textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/859 AM.

A few degrees of cooling are expected today with temperatures returning to normal over the weekend. Morning low clouds and fog will return to many coastal areas by Friday and each day through early next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

16/155 PM.

Temperature trends remain pretty flat through Monday or Tuesday then models indicate a slow increase in high pressure next week with weakening onshore flow Wednesday through Friday which would result in a warming trend. There is roughly a 50-70% chance of highs in the lower 100s in the warmer valleys by Wednesday and around a 20% chance of 105. Downtown has around a 30-40% chance of reaching 90 by next Wednesday or Thursday while the deserts have a 60%-80% chance of at least lower 100s.

There is another tropical storm behind Elida next week but for now the upper level pattern favors a more westerly trajectory which would result in fewer impacts locally.

AVIATION

16/2335Z.

At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 ft with a max temperature of 27 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in coastal valley and coastal TAFs, where MVFR to IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs are forecast to return. There is a 40% chance for restrictions to be off by +/- 2 hours in onset and dissipation timing, and off by one category in minimum restriction.

Dry conditions are forecast to prevail areawide.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Onset and dissipation of MVFR to IFR CIGs is expected to occur within 2 hours of 08Z-17Z on Friday. There is a 60% chance for the east wind component to reach 8 knots on Friday 08Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

16/1242 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters will continue through Friday and will linger locally into the weekend. The coastal jet across PZZ670 is expected to ramp up again this afternoon and evening which has warranted the issuance of a GALE WARNING for this timeframe. Short-period seas (nearing 10 ft this evening) are expected to continue through at least Friday.

The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel & especially nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon through late night.

BEACHES

16/1242 PM.

Tropical storm Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane status and move to the north and west. Another tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen and generally follow the wake of Elida. This activity will occur over the eastern Pacific waters well off the coast of Baja California.

These southerly swells will propagating northward and will begin affecting our south-facing beaches by Sunday. This activity will likely persist through the week. Another peak could occur late next week due to strong storms across the southern Hemisphere adding to the mix - Potentially more significant hazardous beach conditions.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).