textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

09/247 AM.

Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week. Some breezy northeast winds are expected at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early the next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

09/247 AM.

On Thursday and continuing into Friday the ridge will be quickly pushed to the east by either a sharp trof or a cut off low approaching from the the west. Hgts, Thursday, 574 dam equally important the sfc gradients will turn onshore. Most max temps will collapse by 5 to 6 locally 8 degrees. Marine layer stratus may make an appearance on Friday morning along with some mid and high level clouds aloft. Friday will see another 1 to 3 degrees of cooling. Despite the two days of cooling max temps will remain about 4 degrees over normal.

The mdls continue to struggle with the potential storm which could arrive anytime from Saturday to Monday. There is a slim chc of a some showers on Friday, but the storm has been trending slower and really think the first real chc of rain will be on Saturday.

The storm does look like it moving slower and is also taking more a southerly trajectory. This trend is reducing the chc of a storm with heavier rainfall rates and amounts. Right now there is a 30 to 40 percent chc of rain each day Sat Sun and Mon and while it will likely not rain all three days it is likely that it will rain at some time during the period. Still as the magic 8 ball says: future uncertain try again later. So hopefully better mdl consensus and consistency will develop over the next few days.

The storm door is forecast to remain open throughout next week.

AVIATION

09/1047Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in most TAFs with VFR conditions except moderate confidence in KSMX 12Z-15Z with a 30% chance of VLIFR.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

09/246 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds for the waters north of the Channel Islands, and large seas of 10+ feet for all of the outer waters. For Wednesday there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level seas. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Expecting SCA level seas today. For Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. SCA level seas could return as early as Thursday night, lasting into the weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday.

BEACHES

09/246 AM.

High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday between 7.2 to 7.6 feet (MLLW). Meanwhile, a west to northwest swell continues to build into the area and is forecast to peak on Monday. This combination of high tides and high surf will bring hazardous swimming conditions, dangerous conditions on rock jetties, and a risk for moderate coastal flooding. If you are in the coastal areas, listen to advice from your local officials.

With the daily high tides changing only a little through Tuesday, the risk for coastal flooding will peak when the surf peaks on Monday. This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year.

First, while tides will be high, they will not be nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago. This means that the impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally be minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding should be expected, especially for low-lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.

Second, for the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest and not from the south, which characterized the coastal flooding episodes of September and early October. This means that areas hit hard in those events, like Long Beach and Malibu, are less at risk with this upcoming event. For west-facing shores however, the risk is much higher than events in the recent past. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and the Ventura County coast, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure.

For the Central Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Monday, though one or both advisories may need to be extended through the week. For the Ventura County Coast, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning, with conditions peaking Monday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for LA County Coast/Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).