textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/1143 PM.

Temperatures will be near normal today, with a cooling trend over the weekend as a weak storm crosses the area. The storm will bring scattered light showers to the region on Saturday. Dry weather is then expected most areas Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with another weak storm possible around late Tuesday or Wednesday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

24/334 AM.

The bottom of a weak pos tilt trof will cover most of the state on Monday and Tuesday. The weather will be pretty benign. Max temps will rise 1 or 2 degrees each day. Even with the warming max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

Mdls remain confused for the potential system late Tuesday or Wednesday. This looks to be a weak system with really only a 20 percent chc of rain. Really the only wet mdl is the GFS which is the only mdl that generates a closed low. If it does rain, rainfall amounts, if any, under a tenth of an inch. Max temps will end up mostly mid 60s to the mid 70s.

Ridging looks likely for Thu and Fri with 2 to 4 degrees of warming slated for each day.

AVIATION

24/1033Z.

At 0823Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB where there is a 20 percent chc of IFR conds 14Z-17Z. High confidence in remainder of TAFs.

KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN008 conds 14Z-17Z. There will be an increasing chc of MVFR conds after 25/08Z. There is a 50% chance of an 8 kt east wind component 13Z-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

24/155 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Across the waters north of Point Conception, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will diminish below adivsory levels by late this morning. Across the waters south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands, SCA winds will likely persist through Saturday night. Winds could drop below advisory levels at times Friday morning. From Saturday afternoon through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of low- end SCA level NW winds this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. However, the SCA level winds likely remain confined to the extreme western portion of the Channel. For Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are generally expected to remain below advisory levels. However, NW onshore winds could locally reach SCA levels especially nearshore during the afternoon into early evening hours over the weekend and into Saturday, mainly across the Anacapa Passage.

A weak system will bring spotty showers across the coastal waters Saturday and Saturday night. This activity may linger into Sunday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).