textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

18/555 PM.

A significant cool down is expected across southwest California through the middle part of the week. Widespread rain is likely Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

18/213 PM.

By Friday and Saturday, the upper low will have moved eastward into the Great Basin. This will result in weak-moderate offshore flow mainly from the east. Dry conditions, locally breezy winds, and warming temperatures can be expected.

The Pacific-North American oscillation is expected remain negative likely through the month. This weather pattern would generally favor troughing on the west coast - resulting in better chances for rain and cooler temperatures.

AVIATION

19/0055Z.

At 0020Z at KLAX, there was a marine inversion with a top near 1400 ft with a temp of 24 deg C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for most airfields. Lower confidence for TAFs at KPRB, Central Coast and LA Coastal sites due to uncertainties with the timing and extent of low clouds tonight into Mon morning. Timing of onset and dissipation of any low CIGs could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KPRB has a 10% chance of LIFR/IFR conds, timing and flight category for Central Coast sites has lower confidence, with 30% chance of LIFR for KSBP and 20% chance of VLIFR at KSMX. For the LA Coast, 40% chance of VFR conds thru the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. However, there is a 20 percent chance of MVFR conds 10Z-16Z Mon. Any east wind component is expected to be 6 kt or less thru the period.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR 00Z TAF.

MARINE

18/141 PM.

For the outer waters, generally hi confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to develop later tonight west and south of Point Conception and persist through late Monday night. There is also a 40% chance of these winds again for the same area Thursday through Friday night. In addition, seas will approach SCA levels through Wednesday, peaking up to 9 feet at times through Monday.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, generally hi confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to largely remain below SCA levels except for a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Thursday night and Friday night. In addition, large seas up to 8 feet can be expected through Monday.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, generally hi confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to largely remain below SCA levels except for a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times for the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday night and Friday night.

A moderate-strength storm system is becoming more likely in the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe. In addition to reduced visibilities in showers, there is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with the possibility of locally gusty and erratic winds and dangerous lightning. It also looks like conditions may become favorable for the formation of waterspouts with this system. Please monitor the latest forecasts and statements over the next couple of days as we draw closer to this event.

BEACHES

18/1241 PM.

The combination of a large west to northwest swell and moderate southerly swell will bring elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet mainly to south and southwest-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through Tuesday morning.

In addition to the elevated surf, dangerous rip currents can be expected. Minor beach erosion and tidal overflows cannot be ruled out for low-lying beach areas around the times of high tides.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).