textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/804 PM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will continue for the coast and valleys, shrinking in coverage each day into next week. Cooler than normal temperatures through this weekend. Hot and dry conditions to return next week with potential for heat impacts especially across the interior. Warmest Tuesday through Thursday and could linger into Friday.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

14/142 PM.

The EC and GFS deterministic and mean ensembles are in generally good agreement thru the extended period. Upper level ridging will build into SE CA by Tue then expand a bit further in srn CA on Wed. The upper high will then build back toward the Four Corners area on Thu and linger in this general area into Fri as an upper level trof approaches the central CA coast.

For SW CA, marine layer low clouds and fog will likely affect portions of the coast each night and morning with minimal inland penetration due to a shallow inversion. Otherwise, mostly clear skies should continue. There is also a hint that some monsoonal moisture may try to start moving back into L.A. County on Fri with the potential for afternoon convection in the mtns and deserts, but there is still too much uncertainty at this time to include any mention of this in the fcst.

A northerly surface pressure gradient is forecast to develop early next week, likely bringing gusty northerly winds across southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. Advisory level Sundowner winds could develop during this time, but there is some uncertainty in the timing and the actual strength of the winds.

Temps will warm up to above normal levels for many areas during the extended period, likely peaking Wed and Thu when highs could reach triple digits in the hottest vly and desert areas.

AVIATION

15/0544Z.

At 2309Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 3100 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival of MVFR CIGs and subsequent VFR transitions may be off +/- 3 hours. Low chance for brief IFR cigs at KSBP/KSMX. No significant wind issues expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing of MVFR CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours of current forecast, then arrival time Saturday night may be between 03Z-10Z with slightly lower ceilings, but still expected MVFR conds. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of MVFR CIGs may be off +/- 3 hours of current forecast, and VFR transition may be any time from 16Z-18Z. No wind issues expected.

MARINE

14/806 PM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria across the coastal waters through Saturday morning. There is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA winds developing over the outer waters from near Point Conception southward to San Nicolas Island and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands. Further north over PZZ670 there is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA gusts from late Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night.

There is a better chance of SCA winds developing Sunday afternoon from near Point Conception and southward over the outer waters, and over the nearshore waters inside the S CA Bight. These nearshore winds are likely to subside early Monday morning, but with SCA winds continuing over the two southern outer zones PZZ673-676. By Monday late afternoon or evening, SCA winds are likely to expand northward to the outer and nearshore waters north of Pt. Sal, and into the Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts to 25 knots may affect portions of PZZ655 Monday evening.

Strong SCA winds are likely to persist over the outer waters Tuesday and Wednesday, affecting the nearshore areas in the afternoon and evening hours. Local gale force gusts will be possible during this time. In addition, building short period seas are expected, likely rising to around 8 feet over the outer waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).