textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/802 PM.

A high pressure system over the region will bring a significant warming trend to the area through late this week. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail with high temperatures remaining well above normal into the weekend. The hottest temperatures will likely occur Friday with daytime temperatures into the 80s and lower 90s. Minor cooling is expected over the weekend.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

24/1253 PM.

Not much change in the longer range forecast either. A cooling trend will start Saturday as a cutoff low slowly meanders south along the California coast. This will reverse gradient trends to onshore, hence the cooling trend. While the deterministic solutions, particularly the GFS, would suggest a chance of light rain Monday, the vast majority of the ensemble and AI models indicate no rain and pops currently are under 10% through the period.

The primary impact will be cooling temperatures, though the magnitude and length of which are still in doubt due to the uncertainty of the path of the cutoff low. Temperatures are expected to cool through at least Monday, but models are showing a large spread in possible temperatures. Will likely need to see how the pattern evolves over the next few days before there is more clarity in the forecast for early next week.

Beyond that, the only blip on the radar is a very weak system around March 8. AI models that go out to March 12 show the ridge rebuilding over the West coast.

AVIATION

25/0622Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer 400 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 1500 feet with a temperature near 21 C.

Good confidence in inland TAFs.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs with a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs at sites with no cigs fcst and a 30 percent chc of no cigs at sites with cigs fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 4SM BR BKN006 conds 11Z-17Z. There is a 20 percent chc of 5SM BKN010 conds as early as 26/05Z. Good confidence that an east wind component will be under 7kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAFs.

MARINE

24/818 PM.

While seas will remain relatively small across the Coastal Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds of 20-25 knots will be common through at least late Thursday night across the Outer Waters south and west of Point Sal, as well as western and southern areas of the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a 20% chance for isolated wind gusts reaching Gale Force levels (34 knots) near the Channel Islands each afternoon and evening during this period. There is a 20-50% chance for SCA level winds across similar areas Friday through Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).