textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

13/109 PM.

A large storm system will move into the Central Coast this afternoon and will continue further south tonight into Friday. The storm will generate periods of moderate to heavy rain this evening through Saturday, and possibly into early next week. Flooding of roadways and burn scars is possible, especially Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

13/222 PM.

The rainy pattern is expected to continue into early next week as models indicate a much weaker system arriving Monday with amounts mostly under a half inch. Can't rule out some light showers continuing into Tuesday as the upper low moves east but lingering moisture remains.

Good confidence that there will be little day to day changes in the temperatures. Max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the csts/vlys which is 6 to 12 degrees blo normals.

AVIATION

14/0647Z.

At 0505 at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion. There was a deep moist layer up to at least 6000 ft.

Low confidence in all TAFs as a cold front moves through the area. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as periods of heavy rain move through the area. MVFR cigs are mostly likely but IFR conds will occur esp 1-2SM vsbys. Mostly MVFR or low VFR cigs/vis are more likely aft 21Z.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms from KSBA northward thru 12Z. After 12Z, there will be a 10-20% Chance of thunderstorms south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025 cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR. High confidence in easterly winds above 8 knots through 21Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025 cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR.

MARINE

13/914 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for all of the Outer Waters. Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance of Gale force southeasterly winds through this evening. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 70-90% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds through this evening. For Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters through Saturday night. For tonight and Friday morning, the thunderstorm threat will exist from around Point Conception northward. For Friday night through Saturday night, the chances for thunderstorms will shift to the coastal waters south of Point Conception. Any thunderstorms that develop would be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic outflow winds, locally rough seas and possible waterspouts.

BEACHES

13/1231 PM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California late this evening through at least Saturday morning. In addition to the west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty southerly winds which will add a southerly wind swell component to the surf. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central Coast and the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX and LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed for the LA county beaches, beginning Friday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch remains in effect from late Friday night through Saturday evening for zones 87-88-346>348-353>358-362-366>375-377>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 340>348. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening for zones 349>352-376. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).