textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/814 PM.

A dry pattern is expected for the next several days except for possible drizzle Saturday morning. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday before a warming trend begins Monday. Breezy Santa Ana winds will return Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will climb to 4 to 8 degrees above normal for the latter half of next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

23/223 PM.

Light offshore flow and high pressure aloft will continue through at least Tuesday with clear skies and highs 3-5 degrees above normal.

A little bit of uncertainty Wednesday and Thursday but likely of minimal consequence locally as models are struggling with whether the next weak upper level system will split and form into a slow moving cut off low or hang together and move through northern California. Depending on how this evolves there could be some cooling Thu/Fri, though the majority of the solutions favor a slow warming trend. Then there is good agreement on more impressive warming next weekend with strong high pressure in place and temperatures into the 80s across the valleys and mid to high 70s for coastal areas.

AVIATION

24/0327Z.

At 0021Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep and there was no inversion.

Overall for the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites is due to uncertainties in timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but good confidence cigs will reach coast and valley sites.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. There is a 30% chance of CIGs returning at IFR levels after 03Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast.

MARINE

23/817 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There are local gusts to 25 kt between San Nicolas Island and Point Conception with a 20-30 percent chance of gusts frequent enough to warrant a SCA. In addition, choppy seas of 5 to 7 feet at 8 seconds are affecting that area. Otherwise, tonight through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura to Santa Monica, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.