textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/245 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow returns. Warming is expected Monday as offshore flow returns with gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday as a storm system approaches the region. There is a chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday, mainly south of Point of Conception.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

30/208 PM.

For the extended period, 12Z models start out in good agreement Thursday/Friday with the inside slider moving eastward and a ridge "nosing" building over the area. For Saturday and Sunday, the GFS breaks down the ridge while the ECMWF maintains its strength.

Forecast-wise, high confidence in the Thursday-Friday time frame. On Thursday, the Santa Ana wind should peak in strength with moderate to locally strong northeast winds across Ventura and LA counties, but noticeably weaker winds across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. The offshore winds will weaken late Thursday through Friday. With this offshore wind event, there will be plenty of cold air advection, so afternoon high temperatures will remain below normal across the area.

For Saturday and Sunday, forecast confidence wanes due to model differences. High confidence in dry conditions persisting across the area. However, temperatures are lower confidence forecast as ECMWF solution would be several degrees warmer than the GFS. Hopefully, models will converge on a solution for next weekend.

AVIATION

30/1809Z.

At 1709Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 14 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF)

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs and flight categories by one or two. There is a 30% chance for LIFR conditions at KPRB from 10Z to 16Z Mon. High uncertainty in development of LIFR CIGs at KSBP and how long they will last if realized.

LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain across Ventura and LA Counties after 06Z Monday.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGs 015-025 with MVFR VSBYs 4-5SM at times are likely through 12Z-15Z Monday. Good confidence in VFR conditions by 18Z Monday. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. CIGs should clear around 19Z Sun. MVFR conditions are possible from 03Z to 06Z and then could fall to IFR or even LIFR through 12Z Mon (+/- 2 hrs). Low confidence from 03Z to 12Z Monday.

MARINE

30/211 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for PZZ670/673 through late tonight. From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Chances increase for SCA conditions Friday into the weekend.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today thru Friday, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels. Except for nearshore from Ventura to western Santa Monica where SCA level offshore winds are expected Monday through Tuesday morning. These winds are likely to extend past Anacapa Island at times. There could be a brief lull in winds below SCA criteria for a few hours Monday afternoon. The widespread nature of these winds over the Santa Barbara Channel has warranted the issuance of a SCA during the aforementioned timeframe.

BEACHES

30/211 PM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the Central Coast with peak surf heights of 10 feet. Very High Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all beaches.

The combination of the two will result in beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding especially for west-northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 11 AM each day.

Beach hazard statements are expected to be issued for all beaches south of Point Conception with future updates. There is a 40% chance for High Surf Advisory to be issued for Ventura coastline. In addition, coastal flooding potential is expected to peak on Wednesday giving the highest risk for a coastal flooding advisory to be issued across Ventura coastline (30% chance).

With tides remaining high and another round of swell, beach hazard statements could be extended into the weekend. Please stay tuned to the National Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the situation.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 88-354-355-358-369-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for zone 340. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for zone 362. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 AM to 3 PM PST Monday for zones 375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Watch remains in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Monday to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).