textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

08/930 AM.

It will be a little warmer today. Cooler conditions arrive Thursday followed by a chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday and over the weekend.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

08/227 AM.

The weekend will be cloudy, cool and showery. Friday night's trof will exit the area Saturday morning. Hot on its heels, however, will be an even colder (534 dam) upper low that will sweep into the area and transverse the state by late Sunday. This cold, dynamic and unstable system will bring showers and a chc of TSTMs to the area. On average this system will produce about a half inch of rain over the 2 day period. Rainfall amounts, however, will likely not be too homogeneous due to the convective nature of the system. Some area may only see a quarter inch of rain, while others could see an inch or more. Most rainfall rates will be between 0.25 to 0.75 in/hr but higher rates will be possible under any TSTM that develops. Snow levels will fall to about 6000 ft and several inches of snow is possible above that elevation. Max temps both days will only be in the 60s or 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees blo normal.

There is some chc of lingering showers Sunday night, but by Monday dry NW flow will set up over the area. Both Monday and Tuesday will have mostly clear skies with rebounding temperatures (2 to 4 degrees Mon and 3 to 6 degrees Tuesday).

AVIATION

08/1736Z.

At 1655Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums by one category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs (007-012) should be accurate within +/- 2 hours from current forecast. There is a 30% chance east wind component reaches 7-8 kts between 09/08Z-16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

08/815 AM.

GALE Watch for Santa Barbara Channel (PZZ650) has been cancelled. However, localized GALE force wind gusts are still possible near Santa Cruz Island late this afternoon through this evening.

GALE Watch for the waters between Santa Cruz/Rosa and San Nicolas has been upgraded to a GALE Warning which is in effect this evening through the overnight hours.

All other small craft advisories appear to be on track. Refer to MWWLOX for details.

A storm system with showers and the potential for thunderstorms is expected to move across the coastal waters starting Thursday night lasting through the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).