textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/226 AM.

A weak upper level trough will move over the area today into Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and increasing marine layer stratus. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and peak on Thursday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

20/340 AM.

Wednesday looks to be the main peak of heat for next week. The low pressure system will have cleared out of the area and higher pressure will build over the region. Perhaps one of the most important factor's contributing to warmer temperatures will be weaker onshore flow and at times even brief offshore flow on Wednesday. The coastal valleys are favored to see highs in the 90s, with around a 25 percent chance of 100 degrees in the western San Fernando Valley and portions of the San Gabriel Valley. Up north, there is around a 50 percent chance of 100 degrees or higher across inland SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, and 15 percent chance for the City of San Luis Obispo.

There is around a 30 percent chance of a few Heat Advisories being needed for coasts and valley for Wed-Thu, and there is some indication than elevated temperatures may continue for Friday into next weekend.

AVIATION

20/1156Z.

At 1059Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the remaining sites. The timing of CIG and any VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hrs and flight minimums by one category. High clouds may disturb the marine layer and sites with cigs may bounce between categories at times. There is a 20 percent chance of little-to-no clearing for coastal sites south of Point Conception today.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by +/- 3 hours, and cigs may scatter and reform due to high clouds. Any east wind component is expected remain less than 6kt.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hrs from forecast time, and cigs may scatter and reform due to high clouds.

MARINE

20/225 AM.

For the outer waters, high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely for the waters mainly west and northwest of Point Conception through tonight or Monday night. The SCA winds will be most persistent around Point Conception. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA wind gusts west and south of Point Conception Tuesday afternoon and night as well, otherwise conds will be below SCA levels Tuesday through Thursday night. Expect steep, choppy seas with the SCA conditions.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. SCA wind gusts are likely during this afternoon and evening, and again Tuesday. Conds are otherwise expected to be below SCA levels Monday through Thursday.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to be below SCA levels for the most part through Thursday night. However, for the western Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 40%-50% chance Monday afternoon/evening and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).