textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

25/812 PM.

An offshore flow pattern beneath high pressure aloft will keep a dry weather pattern in place through at least Friday. Above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times are expected over many coastal and valley areas through Thanksgiving Day. A cooling trend will develop over the weekend as an upper- level trough approaches the area.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

25/226 PM.

Well below normal confidence in the entire extended period and beyond as guidance struggles with the timing and evolution of a trough of two digging into the West Coast. The initial trough this weekend has trended towards an inside slider with only a 20 percent chance of showers (leaving an 80 percent that it will be dry) focused across Los Angeles County. Seasonably cool conditions with breezy north to northeast winds will likely prevail this weekend into early next week.

Active, unsettled weather may return for the middle of next week, although forecast confidence is very low for this time frame with a wide range of possible outcomes; from mostly dry conditions to a moderate or strong storm.

AVIATION

26/0617Z.

At 0450Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top at 1800 ft and a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in all sites except KPRB with just a 20 percent chc of 4SM BR conds 11Z-16Z.

For KPRB...Moderate confidence. Timing may be off by +/- 2 hours and there is a 25 percent chc of 1/4SM FG 10Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of 4SM BR conds 11Z-16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 7kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. East to northeast winds are possible from 11Z-18Z, but should remain below 10 kt.

MARINE

25/841 PM.

Conditions will continue to improve well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through tonight, and will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving. However, there is a moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica tonight through Thursday morning and for the waters near Morro Bay. The strongest winds are expected tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Localized wind gusts to 25 knots are possible nearshore along the Central coast, with best chances from Cayucos south to Morro Bay each night through morning this week.

Winds and seas will likely (60% chance) increase to SCA levels once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and evening, but chances for widespread SCA conditions are low.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force Winds this weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 88-358-369-371-372-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Wednesday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.