textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/218 PM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Sunday, bringing a warming and drying trend. Briefly cooler conditions are likely early next week, with another warm and dry spell expected to start on Wednesday and continue through at least Friday.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

07/216 PM.

On Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the area, resulting in the start of another warming and drying trend. The heat is then expected to peak on Thursday and Friday as offshore pressure gradients and boundary layer temperatures peak. During this time, it will likely be more of a northerly offshore wind, favoring such areas as southern Santa Barbara county and the I-5 corridor. The most likely outcome for max temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be upper 80s to lower 90s for warmer coastal/valley areas, but some ensemble members show the potential for localized readings into the mid 90s. These max temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees above normal. As a result, there is the chance of heat advisory headlines needed in the Thursday/Friday time frame.Long range models also showing no signs of rain in the next 10 days.

AVIATION

08/0540Z.

At 0526Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs through forecast period. Moderate confidence in winds for sites across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, with timing of wind shifts may be off by +/- 2 hours, and gusts may be off by 10 kts during peak winds.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU conditions. Moderate confidence in wind forecast as direction may be off by 20 degrees and gusts may be off by +/- 10 kt during peak winds.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions. Moderate confidence in wind forecast as direction may be off by 20 degrees and gusts may be off by +/- 10 kt during peak winds.

MARINE

07/912 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level N-NE winds to persist through early Sunday afternoon across the far southern waters (PZZ676). A lull in winds is likely thereafter followed by a likely chance of SCA NW-N winds during Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Similar chances these winds reach SCA level confined during the evening hours northward to Point Sal. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas for majority of Outer Waters, with a 20-30% chance of GALE FORCE winds across PZZ670 Monday evening into Tuesday. Moderate chances for SCA winds through the work week. Waves will flirt with SCA levels during this period.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the weekend. For Monday through Thursday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday SCA level NE winds are expected from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel - with winds and seas remaining at or below SCA levels elsewhere. Localized GALE Force wind gusts are likely nearshore from Point Mugu to Malibu Sunday morning. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 88-354-355-358-369>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for zones 362-366>370-372-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).