textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/234 AM.

Very warm conditions will continue through the weekend, with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Cooling with dense fog will bring a brief break around Monday, with warming again starting Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be common through Saturday, and again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

30/307 AM.

High pressure aloft will weaken Monday through early Tuesday, while offshore pressure gradients and winds turn near neutral. This will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees compared to the weekend, but all areas should remain well above normal with highs generally in the 70s. Dense fog with very low visibility is likely to impact some coastal areas, but unsure exactly how much of the area will be affected.

This trend will reverse course once again Tuesday through Thursday as offshore flow and upper level ridging returns. The majority of the ensembles favor wind speeds similar to a touch stronger to our current wind event, as gradients look similar but there is a little more upper level support. Expecting a few more Wind Advisories and temperatures pushing back into the 80s. There is a good consensus for a trend towards onshore flow and a cooling airmass for Friday, but there is no clear signal for just how much.

There are no rain chances through Friday February 6. Chances increase a little after that, peaking in the February 9th through 14th window at about 50 percent. The vast majority of the ensemble solutions that show rain have light amounts, with a slim minority showing more significant amounts. The past couple of signals like this two weeks out ended up fizzling away into dryness, so not putting too much stock in this potential. With that pessimism established, there is at least something to hope for if you are looking for precipitation.

AVIATION

30/1054Z.

Around 0730Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature near 22 degrees Celsius.

Generally high confidence exists in the current forecast. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals, except for a moderate chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB through 17Z. There is a moderate to high chance of moderate turbulence and low-level through 20Z, and again after 03Z Saturday.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 20 percent chance of moderate turbulence and low-level through 16Z, and again after 03Z Saturday.

MARINE

30/308 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for winds relative to forecast for seas.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and including the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through this morning. SCA level seas will likely be the primary driver this morning. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels later today through Saturday, then winds and seas will start to increase again with a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions returning between Saturday night and Tuesday.

Inside the southern California bight, areas of SCA level north to northeast winds are expected for the nearshore coastal waters off the Ventura County Coast to Malibu each morning through Saturday. There is a likely (60-80 percent) chance of SCA level winds this morning, dropping to a high to likely (50 to 70 percent) chance tonight through Saturday morning. The highest chance of SCA conditions will be from around Point Mugu south and east to Pacific Palisades. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels on Saturday and continue at or below SCA levels through the weekend and into Tuesday. A return of SCA level northeast winds is possible between Tuesday night and Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-374-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 655-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).