textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/1147 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through Thursday, with cooler than normal temperatures expected across the area into the weekend. There is a chance of mountain and occasional lower elevation convection through at least Wednesday night. More robust marine layer cloud coverage is likely this week, however, higher clouds may disrupt the formation of the marine layer at times.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

12/246 AM.

Good agreement with all of the medium range mdls. The west coast trof will persist through Saturday with hgts rising to 588 dam. The trof will then be pushed to the west by a powerful upper high that spans most of the southern portion of the CONUS. Srn CA will then be under flat dry SW. Hgts will climb to 592 dam. At the sfc the mdt to stg onshore flow to the east will continue but the onshore push to the north will weaken substantially and might even be offshore by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The weather will be benign through the period. There will be plenty of night through morning low clouds and fog across the csts. Due to the rising hgts the marine layer will be shrunk to under a 1000 ft which should keep it out of the vlys. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear. The weakening onshore flow to the north will also lessen the amount of coastal low clouds early next week esp if the offshore flow develops.

Gusty but still sub-advisory levels winds will continue across the Antelope Vly.

Temps will begin to warm on Saturday. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming on Saturday and Sunday and 1 to 2 degrees each day Monday and Tuesday. Even with the four days of warming max temps Tuesday will remain 2 to 4 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION

12/0631Z.

At 0521Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 3400 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KSBP with a 30 percent chc of 1/4-1/2SM FG conds 11Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs with a 30 percent chc of cigs remaining AOA 010. VFR conds may arrive +/- 90 minutes from fcst time.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds may arrive as late as 1930Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of IFR CIGs 22/12-17Z.

MARINE

12/255 AM.

High confidence that conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) across all of the southwestern California coastal waters through at least Friday night. However, localized gusts near 20 kt are possible each afternoon and evening off the coast of Long Beach through at least Thursday night. Patchy dense fog are possible on the Central Coast each morning. There is also a 5-10% chance of showers or a thunderstorm over the coastal waters through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.