textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

18/804 PM.

Dry and warm conditions are expected through Monday. Locally breezy onshore wind is expected Sunday into early next week. A weak to moderate storm system will bring widespread rain Monday Night through Tuesday, focused over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Impacts will generally be minor. Widespread gusty west to northwest winds will follow Wednesday through Friday.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

18/1224 PM.

The closed low that will bring rain on Tuesday will open up and move to the northeast on Wednesday. Some projections have a weak shortwave rotating around the low and through San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. If this ends up happening, a few scattered showers would be around on Wednesday (about a 20% chance). These showers do not look convective and any impacts would be minor.

Winds will be on the rise for the back half of next week. Most projections show a classic post-frontal west to northwest wind push on Wednesday and Thursday, with fairly widespread gusts of 25 to 45 mph focused over coastal, mountain, and desert areas. The winds become more northwesterly later Thursday and Friday as a weak inside slider moves through, with winds focused over the more typically windy areas. Saturday could see continued northwest winds, or some solutions show the inside slide retrograding west and over our area. Temperatures will recover some for the end of the week, but just to about normal for this time of the year.

AVIATION

19/0644Z.

At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2100 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

Overall for the TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSMX, there is a 40% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 08Z-17Z. For KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, there is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

18/803 PM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. A system will move through the coastal waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning bringing a chance of showers to much of the area. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two across the northern waters Tuesday morning.

SCA level southerly winds are possible along the cold front. By Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, SCA level NW winds will develop south of Point Conception. These winds will likely expand to include the majority of waters by Thursday afternoon. SCA winds may persist into the weekend at least for some waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.