textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

03/851 PM.

Cloudy and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday, with increasing chances of mostly light rain. Warming and drying to follow Wednesday through the next weekend, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees in some areas by Friday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

04/228 AM.

All signs pointing to an xtnd warm up for the long term. All mdls agree that the east Pac ridge will nose into the state from the west. Hgts will rise to 582 dam on Thu and stay there through Sat and then bump up a little to 584 dam on Sunday. The biggest question mark for the forecast will be the E/W sfc gradients. While there is decent agreement that there will be weak offshore flow from the north, there is considerable disagreement on what the E/W grads will do. About half the EC ensemble grads (which usually verify better than the GFS ensembles) are onshore in the mornings while the other half is offshore. The deterministic EC follow the mean pretty closely with its grads just a little onshore. For now will go with that, but have to keep an eye on this critical parameter because if it does go offshore the already warm temps will soar even higher.

Right now most areas are looking at 3 to 6 degrees of warming Thursday, 1 to 3 degrees Friday, 2 to 4 Saturday and 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. Cst/Vly temps start out 2 to 4 degrees above normal on Thursday and rise to 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees on Sunday. The mtns and far interior will end up 15 to 18 degrees over normal on Sunday. On Sunday max temps across the near shore areas will be in the lower to mid 70s, the rest of the csts in the upper 70s and to mid 80s. The vlys will be mostly in the lower 90s. If the offshore flow from the east does develop these temps could be 4 to 8 degrees highers with some locations possibly hitting 100 degrees.

AVIATION

04/1838Z.

At 1817Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to 7000 ft.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Wind speeds/gusts may be off by 5 kt at times during peak winds at all sites. There is a 20-30 percent chc -SHRA along with a 5 percent chc of a -TSRA from 22Z-04Z. Brief MVFR cigs will be possible at anytime through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30 percent chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z. High confidence that any east wind component with be AOB 6kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20 percent chance of -SHRA 22Z-04Z.

MARINE

04/837 AM.

For the nearshore waters inside the SoCal Bight, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds are likely (40-60% chance) Tuesday afternoon and evening with a chance (30-40% chance) Wednesday and Thursday nights, mainly in the channel.

Nearshore along the Central Coast there is a 30% chance for SCA NW winds Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with a 30 to 40% chance of SCA conds Thursday afternoon and night.

For the outer waters, SCA NW winds are likely (40-60% chance) on Tuesday for the waters near Point Conception to the northern Channel Islands, possibly extending south to San Nicolas island. Winds will increase again from the NW Wednesday night (for PZZ676) into Thursday for the remaining outer zones through Thursday night. Stronger winds will be possible Friday into the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.