textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/834 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A slow cooling trend will begin Friday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

15/1225 AM.

Offshore flow and weak ridging will continue over the state through the xtnd period, although by Wednesday some changes begin to occur. The offshore push should not be powerful enough to keep marine layer stratus away from the coasts where it might generate some dense fog later at night through the early morning. The weakening offshore flow and lowering of hgts will contribute to a continuous cool trend with Sunday's max temps across the csts/vlys falling from the 70s to lower 80s to the Mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday. Max temps will be near normal by Wednesday.

The GFS deterministic run brings a fully formed 552 dam upper low to the area Friday, while the EC only has dry fast moving NW flow. The AI mdls and ensembles are much less impressive and while there is a high chc of a pattern change - the chc of an actual rain event remains under 40 percent.

AVIATION

15/1811Z.

Around 17Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature near 23 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in flight categories. Less confidence exists in winds. There is a low chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities after 08Z Friday at Los Angeles County coastal terminals.

There is a moderate to high chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind shear and turbulence after 10Z Friday.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities after 09Z Friday.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind shear and turbulence after 10Z Friday.

MARINE

15/907 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast overall. Less confidence in the current forecast for winds. Higher confidence in the current forecast for seas.

For the inner waters inside the southern California bight, marginal low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast to east winds will continue nearshore between Rincon Point and Point Dume through at least this morning. There is a 60 percent chance that the SCA may be cancelled earlier than the expiration time. There is a low-to-moderate (20-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds between late tonight and Friday morning and again Friday night through Saturday morning, highest between Friday night and Saturday.

Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels. A long- period west-to-northwest swell is filling in the region, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).