textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

09/115 PM.

High clouds are increasing across the area as the next storm system is poised to move onshore later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Light to moderate rain is expected during that time, with gusty southerly winds over the higher terrain, especially Tuesday night. Significant cooling down to normal levels are expected through Thursday before a brief and minor warm up occurs Friday and Saturday. For the following week, multiple rounds of precipitation and much cooler conditions are likely.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

09/209 PM.

There will be brief warm up Fri/Sat along with some light offshore flow but otherwise quiet weather to start the weekend.

A lengthy storm cycle is expected to start as early as Sunday but could be as late as next Monday based on the latest ensemble solutions. Off and on rain is then expected through at least the middle of next week with an additional 2-4 inches of rain area wide. There are also indications that snow levels may lowering quite a bit as well during this cycle. As we get closer to the weekend there will be more precise timing and precip amounts.

AVIATION

10/0627Z.

At 0532Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion up to around 2600 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing could be off by as much as 2 hours. Cigs AOB 015 could be off by as much as 300 ft. Cigs over 015 be off by as much as 500 ft. Rain timing could be off by as much as 3 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is 25 percent chc that cigs will remain AOA 010. Flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs AOA 015 could be off by +/- 500 ft. Rain may arrive as early as 06ZAny easterly winds will be 7 knots or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could be off by +/- 500 ft.

MARINE

09/851 PM.

For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are likely (60% chance) at times through much of the week. There are a few periods where the swell and wind may drop off, but winds and seas will likely remain near hazardous levels to small craft through the forecast period. There is a high to likely (50%-70% chance) of Gale Force southerly winds between late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night for the waters west and north of Point Conception.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, conds should remain below SCA levels through early Tuesday morning. For Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to be at SCA levels (70% chance) with a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds through Tuesday night. Conds should be below SCA levels Wednesday night through Saturday night, except for a 40% chance of SCA wind gusts at times Friday evening.

Inside the southern California bight, conds will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday morning. There is a moderate (30%-40%) chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon increasing to a high to likely (50-70% chance) by Tuesday evening. Winds will likely fall below SCA levels between Wednesday and the end of the week, but there is a 40%-60% chance of SCA conditions developing Thursday evening and Friday evening across the western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.

BEACHES

09/849 PM.

A high surf advisory remains in effect for the Ventura County beaches through Wednesday, but there is a 40 percent chance that the surf will diminish below the Advisory level of 7 feet overnight, before rising again on Tuesday. While the swell will primarily be out of the west, the swell will become more southwesterly late Tuesday through Wednesday. During this time, the more sheltered south to southwest- facing beaches and harbors will see elevated-to- high surf conditions, and there is a chance that a high surf advisory may be needed for Santa Barbara South Coast as the swell direction becomes more favorable.

Surf and swell will build Friday and likely remain near high surf criteria through this coming weekend, then there is a moderate to high chance of more widespread and higher surf developing early next week. There is a 20-30 percent chance of damaging sets developing between next Monday and Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday for zones 38-344-345-353-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Gale Watch in effect from 9 AM PST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).