textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

03/119 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds to portions of southern California Wednesday morning through Thursday. Cold overnight low temperatures will occur through the work week, coldest Wednesday night into Thursday morning in wind protected areas. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

03/212 AM.

Strong high pressure will be building rapidly over the eastern Pacific this weekend and especially the first half of next week. 500mb heights are expected to exceed the 95th percentile and with increasing offshore flow, particularly Monday through Wednesday, temperatures locally are expected to be 10-20 degrees above normal. Local historical guidance suggests widespread highs in the 80s across coast and valleys with about a 20% chance of lower 90s. There will be some northerly flow developing Sunday night through Tuesday that will bring dry and gusty winds to north exposed areas which includes most of the mountains as well as southern Santa Barbara County.

Temperatures will start cooling next Thursday and Friday but still well above normal.

AVIATION

03/1126Z.

Around 09Z, there was a deep moist layer up to around 3400 feet with a inversion above up to 6500 feet.

Low to moderate confidence in the current forecast through 18Z as ceilings could form rapidly and dissipate. Moderate confidence in the forecast thereafter.

KLAX...There is a 60 percent chance of MVFR to VFR conditions with ceilings at or below 6000 feet through at least 14Z, then VFR conditions should develop through 17Z. There is a 30 percent chance of east winds between 7 and 10 knots through 19Z. There is a moderate chance of moderate wind shear after 06Z Thursday.

KBUR...There is a 60 percent chance of MVFR to VFR conditions with ceilings at or below 6000 feet through at least 14Z, then VFR conditions should develop through 16Z. There is a moderate to high chance of moderate wind shear through 18Z, and again after 05Z Thursday.

MARINE

03/824 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence in the forecast for seas versus winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the southern California bight, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions this morning, diminishing to a 30 to 50 percent chance this afternoon through Thursday morning. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, then there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of SCA level winds between Friday afternoon and Saturday night, highest from near Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of gusty northeast to east winds through early this afternoon, increasing to 40 to 60 percent chance overnight tonight and into Thursday morning, highest between Rincon Point to Santa Monica and into the San Pedro Channel. There is a 40-50 percent chance that east winds could affect east facing harbors on Thursday morning. Winds and seas should drop below SCA levels Thursday afternoon and remain below SCA levels through the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM PST Thursday for zones 655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).