textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/1033 PM.

Generally dry weather through tonight except for lingering showers over the interior and some light snow showers at times near the Grapevine. Unsettled weather will return Thursday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible and periods of heavy rain near storms. Mostly dry weather on Friday but a 5 to 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Los Angeles County. Dry weather is expected over the weekend and all of next week, with significant warming beginning Friday, and well above normal temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s expected across the valleys.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

02/158 PM.

Next week looks quite warm, especially inland and warmest on Wednesday. A fast moving ridge moves through the area over the weekend but gets knocked down Monday as an upper low moves into the Pac NW. So after a couple days of warming temperatures look for Monday to a little cooler, but still a few degrees above normal in most areas.

A stronger high pressure ridge returns Tuesday and especially Wednesday. With models also showing gradients either near neutral or slightly offshore, temperatures across the interior coastal plain and especially the valleys will warm up several more degrees, likely reaching the at least the mid 90s for the warmest valleys, with a around a 5-10% chance of Woodland Hills reaching 100.

AVIATION

03/0526Z.

At 0421Z at KLAX, there was a weak surface inversion to 1100 feet with a temperature of 13 C.

High confidence in TAFs. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms to impact the mountains and valleys in eastern VTA County and LA county after 18Z through 06Z. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds, +RA, low visibilities, and lightning.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is less than a 10% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through 06Z. There is a 40% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt between 12Z and 18Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for thunderstorms to develop over the terminal from 18Z through 06Z.

MARINE

02/1018 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Winds will likely be at or near GALE force levels through late tonight across the southern outer waters and the inner waters south of Point Conception, with local gusts to 35 kt elsewhere. Steep and hazardous seas will continue across all the waters through Thursday morning.

Then, there is a 60-80 percent chance Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds continue through at least Friday evening across most of the waters, except for a 30-50 percent chance for eastern Santa Barbara Channel and the southern inner waters off the LA and OC coasts Thursday afternoon and evening. A lull in SCA conds may occur Friday morning, so currently holding off on extending the current SCA all the way through Friday night, but moderate to high confidence that SCA level winds will return Friday afternoon through late night.

Winds will retreat below SCA levels late Friday night through Saturday, with a 20-30 percent chance of SCA winds returning Saturday afternoon into the evening, and a 40-50 percent chance for Sunday afternoon through evening. Higher chances exist for SCA conds early next week.

Dense fog may develop this upcoming weekend, especially in the evening to morning hours, in response to a ridge building over the region.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).