textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/805 PM.

Widespread rain will develop Wednesday and continue into Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms. A weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm's wake by the weekend for dry and warmer conditions.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

20/129 PM.

A weak to low end moderate Santa Ana event is expected this weekend but much weaker than the last event. Temperatures should warm up quickly into the upper 70s and 80s most everywhere except for the mountains and deserts. Latest models are indicating peak winds between 30 and 50 mph, strongest in the LA/Ventura mountains.

AVIATION

21/0428Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in MVFR conds at times at remaining sites. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours with CIG height +/- 200 ft of TAF.

Rain is expected for most TAF sites between 12Z-22Z, earliest along the Central Coast to KSBA. There is a 10-20 percent chance of TSRA KSBA and north starting around 18Z. TSRA spreads to KOXR and KCMA Wednesday afternoon, and into LA County after 06Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc of lower cigs of OVC008. An east wind component up to 5 kt is possible 12-18Z with a 10 percent chance of brief 8 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Brief BKN008 conds possible 20/13Z-17Z, becoming likely after 21Z.

MARINE

20/925 PM.

Expecting showers to move into the coastal waters as early as tonight as the low approaches from the west. Boaters can expect rain and a chance of thunderstorms and isolated waterspouts spreading from west to southeast. With any thunderstorm there is also the threat of lightning, gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and choppy seas. Winds still do not look too impactful, there is a good chance for periods of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level (including the nearshore waters) southerly winds Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. As the system leaves the area Thursday, fairly widespread west to northwest SCA winds will impact much of the coastal waters, creating steep, choppy wind waves.

Then a weak to locally moderate Santa Ana Wind event is likely this weekend, with some localized SCA level gusts possible nearshore in favored areas nearshore adjacent to Ventura and LA Counties.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch in effect from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Thursday afternoon for zones 348>353. (See LAXFFALOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).