textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/519 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow returns. Gusty Santa Ana winds are possible Monday with warmer temperatures. Then turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of rain Wednesday.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

28/128 PM.

Monday's Santa Ana event will quickly shift back onshore Tuesday and could see some patchy dense fog reaching the beaches. Otherwise, a quiet day with temperatures near normal with generally sunny skies.

There is a chance of light rain across the area Wednesday as another inside slider trough drops into the Great Basin. Ensemble solutions are still exhibiting a wide range of possibilities but at least half of the solutions indicate some light rain developing. It could also be dry with some light offshore winds, but the trends favor the light rain scenario. Most of the solutions show rain amounts under a half inch, and mostly under a quarter inch.

Most of the ensembles show rain ending Wednesday night but there area a few ensembles that keep the upper low close by with lingering showers into Thursday. Most, though favor a dry day Thursday and Friday with warming temperatures.

AVIATION

29/0711Z.

At 0545Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 1700 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. Timing of VFR transition may be off by as much as 90 minutes. Cig and Vis will vary but likely bounce between IFR and LIFR. Low confidence in arrival times of low clouds Saturday evening with 02Z arrival possible.

There is a 30% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 13Z-17Z.

KBUR and KVNY have a 25% chance of LIFR Conds 11Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 1SM OVC004 conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds may not arrive until 18Z. IFR conds could arrive as early as 300200Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 25% chance of 1SM OVC004 conds 12Z-16Z

MARINE

28/822 PM.

A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below SCA levels currently, there will be borderline SCA seas possible 30NM from the Central coast Shoreline (PZZ670). SCA wind gusts are also affecting PZZ673 and should continue through 3 AM Saturday. At that point, SCA winds and seas will end across the outer waters. Then, conditions will struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening, but still looks unimpressive and borderline at best. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across all inner waters through the weekend.

Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday. Weak offshore winds will affect the waters nearshore from Ventura to Malibu on Monday. Low confidence in another round of offshore winds on Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).