textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

29/829 AM.

Low clouds will linger each night/morning along the coast and in coastal valleys with the potential for some very light drizzle. Falling heights will keep temperatures well below normal through the middle of the week. Temperatures will begin to warm by Thursday, with many valley locations warming into the 90s again by early next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

29/225 AM.

Little change expected into Thursday, with below normal temperatures and June Gloom coastal conditions. High pressure aloft will build over the region Friday and Saturday, with 500 millibar heights going from 582 decameters Thursday morning to 592 decameter on Saturday. This will noticeable warming to the mountains and deserts, with highs in the 90s by Saturday which is up 15 degrees from the first half of this week. For coastal areas however, it all depends on how the marine layer responds. There are no current signals that point to a dissipation of the low clouds and fog, which would favor the marine layer staying around and actually becoming more concentrated as the inversion strengthens well beyond its weak form seen today. With all that in mind, the most likely scenario is more limited warming of around 5 degrees for the coastal plains, with highs in the 70s, and 10 degrees of warming for the valleys with highs in the 80s. Overall, this warming will likely pull us out of the relatively cold end of June and back closer to early July normals.

Ensemble solutions start to diverge on Sunday in terms of the trend of the upper level ridge, but all of them keep some form of high pressure going through at least the first half of next week.

Happy early 4th of July.

AVIATION

29/1008Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of the weak inversion was 5000 ft with a temperature of 14 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF. 20% chance of MVFR ceilings at KPRB 10-16Z today, increasing to a 60% chance Tuesday morning.

Moderate confidence (50+% chance) in ceilings at all other airports and Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings forming tonight and Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). High confidence in any easterly wind staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings forming and Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category).

MARINE

29/225 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing for the outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island through this morning, with a 50% chance of forming again later this afternoon and tonight. Chances decrease Tuesday through Thursday.

Other than a 30% chance of SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening through Tuesday, high confidence in conditions staying under SCA for the rest of the waters.

All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).