textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/915 AM.

Dry conditions are expected for the next 10 days. Skies will be partly cloudy through the weekend except for morning low clouds across the coasts and lower valleys. High temperatures will be below normal through the weekend but will warm to above normal on Monday. The afternoon high temperatures will continue to warm through at least Wednesday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

23/1219 AM.

There is good agreement in the long range mdls for Monday and Tuesday and mush less agreement for next Wed/Thu.

Dry NW flow will be over the area on Monday. Weak sfc high pressure over the Great Basin will bring weak offshore flow to the area. The offshore flow will not be strong enough to chase away the morning low clouds but will be strong enough to bring 2 to 3 degrees of warming to the area. This will bring max temps up to above normal levels.

Ridging will move over the state on Tuesday and offshore flow will increase. This should be enough to mostly if not completely eliminate the low clouds. Look for mostly sunny skies. The offshore flow will not be strong enough to produce anything more that 15 to 25 mph canyon gusts. Another 1 to 2 degrees of warming will bring cst/vly highs up to the upper 60s and lower 70s or 1 to 3 degrees above normal.

The operational EC goes a little nuts on Wed/Thu and develops a big honking upper low and barrels it into the northern half of the state. The GFS merely moves the ridge to the east and brings NW flow over the state. Both AI mdls favor the GFS soln as does the EC ensemble mean. Will base the fcst on the NW flow solution which will continue the benign weather. The offshore flow should continue and low clouds should be kept to a minimum. Max temps will change little from Tuesday's values and remain a few degrees above normal.

Both AI mdls now forecast dry conditions through the 7th of February save for a small chc of light rain across the Central Coast on the 2nd.

AVIATION

23/1711Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 330 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees Celsius.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites is due to uncertainties in timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. There is a 30% chance of CIGs returning at IFR levels after 03Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

MARINE

23/911 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Other than a 15-20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds this afternoon and evening, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Point Mugu to Santa Monica, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.