textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/827 AM.

Warmer temperatures with locally gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through Thursday. The winds and temperatures will peak today. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and over the weekend but highs will still be at least 4-8 degrees above normal. There will be a chance of rain by next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

04/302 AM.

The weekend looks dry and pleasant. A ridge with a strong positive tilt will nose its way into the state from the west. Hgts will rise to about 580 dam. There should be just enough offshore flow to keep the low clouds away (with a ~30 percent chc of some morning low clouds over western SBA county and southern LA county) but not enough to create any wind issues. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear - at worst partly cloudy. The extra sunshine and rising hgts should be good for 1 to 3 degrees of warming each day. Sunday's highs should end up in the 70s and lower 80s for most of the csts and vlys which is about 10 degrees above normal.

On Monday the ridge will slowly be pushed to the south by an approaching storm. Moist WSW flow will slowly overspread the area. A slight chc of light rain will develop over the Central Coast in the morning, but more likely there will just be a deep marine layer and some drizzle across most of the csts and vlys. The low clouds will dissipate by late morning but the day will turn mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds overspread the area. The slight chc of rain will continue across the Central Coast in the afternoon but more likely it will just be cloudy and dry. Max temps will tumble 4 to 8 degrees but will remain 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

A series of impulses will move into the state Monday evening through Wednesday. There is no more than a 40 percent chc of rain in any given 6 hour period during this time, but its likely that rain will fall sometime during this period and the uncertainty is mostly due to uncertainty in the timing and location of the various impulses. This will not be a be rainmaker with only a quarter to half inch of rain forecast over the 60 hour period. That all said, both the AI mdls show zero rain for this period and a battle between the ensemble based forecast vs the upstart AI mdls has been set up. Stay tuned.

Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC continue to see a more potent storm during the 15th to 17th time frame.

AVIATION

04/1827Z.

At 1740Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 1800 feet with a temperature near 24 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in flight categories. Less confidence exists in winds and wind impacts.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a moderate chance of VLIFR conditions between 13Z and 17Z. There is a high chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind shear and turbulence through the period.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots through 10Z Thursday, then there is a 50 percent chance of easterly winds between 7 and 10 knots through 18Z Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence through 20Z, and again after 08Z Thursday.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence after 08Z Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of NE-E winds greater than 10 knots through 03Z Thursday.

MARINE

04/1057 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Higher confidence in the wind forecast relative to seas.

Offshore easterly winds should continue across the waters through Thursday afternoon. There is a high to likely (40-60 percent) chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds for the waters inside the southern California bight through this afternoon, then the chance will become more widespread farther to the north and west into the waters south of Point Sal from late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

By Thursday evening, winds and seas should drop below SCA levels, then northwest winds along with wind-driven seas will likely dominate the pattern across the waters over the weekend. There is a moderate to high chance of SCA conditions for the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast as soon as early Friday morning with a higher chance for early next week. After Monday, there is a high chance of SCA conditions for the same area with a moderate chance of Gales.

BEACHES

04/1107 AM.

An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline beginning on Friday lasting well into next week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible through Sunday morning, then moderate confidence exists into early half of next week.

Peak surf heights are likely to be near or greater than 15 ft for west-facing beaches along the Central Coast, and near or greater than 10 ft south of Point Conception.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).