textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

01/120 PM.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Monday with some patches of dense morning fog near the coast. Another warming trend will kick off on Tuesday, with near record high temperatures possible by Wednesday along with moderate Santa Ana winds. Another more pronounced cooling trend to follow after Thursday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

01/210 PM.

Another very warm Santa Ana type day on Thursday, though likely at least a little cooler with less wind as high pressure aloft will be shifting east as another trough approaches the Pac NW. May still be some advisory level winds Thursday but upper support is weakening at that point.

More pronounced cooling Friday but still at least 5-10 degrees below normal. Beyond that there are some mixed signals in the models. While there are still a few ensemble solutions indicating at least a chance of some light rain by next weekend, the vast majority push that potential into the following week around the 11th or 12th of Feb. In the meantime, it looks like the most likely outcome for next weekend is continued dry weather with temperatures still well above normal and possibly another light to moderate Santa Ana wind event.

AVIATION

01/1912Z.

At 1837Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. There is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period at KPRB. For KLAX, KLGB, and KSMO there is a 20-30% chance of a few hours of LIFR/IFR conditions between 13Z-17Z Mon, and a 15% chance for KOXR and KCMA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance of 1-3SM VSBY and BKN003-BKN006 cigs from 13Z-17Z Mon. While light east wind may continue through 20Z Sun and redevelop again from 11Z-18Z Mon, the east wind component is NOT expected to exceed 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

01/149 PM.

For all the Outer Waters and the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. From this afternoon through Monday night, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas is expected to develop. For Tuesday through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels, except for a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds across the nearshore waters Tuesday through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning. Another round of SCA level winds and seas across the outer waters will be possible Friday into Saturday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday a moderately long-period W swell will bring seas of 4-8 feet to the southern inner waters. Then Tuesday night through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday morning, local areas of SCA level northeast winds will be possible from Ventura Harbor south through Malibu and off the coast of Orange County. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from late tonight through Monday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).