textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/110 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail the rest of the week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Light rain showers are possible late Sunday into Monday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

30/152 PM.

Models are in reasonable agreement showing the cut off low just off the Central Coast late Sunday and Monday, then turning inland near the LA/Orange County border Tuesday. PW's with this system peak around 0.7" so moisture is very limited. And there is very little forcing either so if there are any showers between late Sunday and Tuesday they will be very light and in most areas won't even register .01 in the rain gauge. Best chances for that would be southeastern LA County and the Central Coast where high end totals could reach 0.10-0.20".

Temperatures during this period will mostly be in the 60s, except some low 70s in the warmer valleys.

The upper low is finally expected to exit the region Tuesday night, leading to 4-8 degrees of warming both Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

01/0401Z.

At 0345Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4300 feet with a temp of 17 degrees Celsius.

For 06Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For coastal and coastal valley sites, moderate confidence in current forecasts due to uncertainties in the marine layer. High confidence in CIG/VSBY restrictions developing, but moderate confidence in timing of flight category changes (+/- 3 hours of current forecasts) as well as flight category (could range from MVFR to LIFR).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30-40% chance of IFR CIGs 10Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30% chance that CIGs could be at MVFR levels.

MARINE

30/901 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue through tonight. Winds may fall below SCA levels north of Point Sal during the morning hours, before increasing again Friday afternoon. Saturday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the outer waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, current SCA was extended into tonight due to winds and steep, choppy seas. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Expecting SCA level winds to end tonight, focused on the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).