textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/901 AM.

Scattered light showers are possible today into early Saturday in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties along with gusty east winds. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the weekend and lasting through Thanksgiving. High temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

21/1222 AM.

Dry conditions are forecast through the xtnd period. At the upper levels both the EC and GFS as well as the ensemble means all show some sort of weak ridging over Srn CA xtndg from an upper high to the SW of Pt Conception. Hgts will start out near 578 dam but will rise to about 584 dam by Thanksgiving Day. At the sfc there will be about 3 to 5 mb of offshore flow both from the N and S strongest from the N. Somewhat oddly the pressure gradients are forecast to exhibit little in the way of diurnal change.

The offshore flow will not have any upper or thermal support so while there will be offshore breezes through the period it does not look like they will reach advisory levels.

Blo normal max temps will continue on Monday with values mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts and vlys. Steady warming will bring Thanksgivings max temps to above normal with temps topping out in the upper 60s and 70s.

Some mdl solutions do show some rain developing 9 or 10 days from now on the last weekend of the month. The EC-AI mdl that has been performing best at these time frames is dry.

AVIATION

21/1134Z.

At 0815Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep moist layer extending to over 6000 feet.

Low confidence in all TAFs through 21Z with frequent changes in both cig and vis. Better confidence in VFR conds aft 21Z

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF through 21Z. Cig and Vis will vary frequently with cigs possible anywhere from BKN008 to BKN040. Vis will likely vary from 2SM To 6SM in RA and BR. Better confidence in VFR cigs aft 21Z. Good confidence that there will be at least a 8kt east wind component through at least 02Z with a 18kt east wind component possible through 15Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 21Z. Cig and Vis will vary frequently with cigs possible anywhere from BKN008 to BKN040. Vis will likely vary from 2SM To 6SM in RA and BR. Better confidence in VFR cigs aft 21Z.

MARINE

21/913 AM.

Low confidence in forecast, especially regarding winds. It is best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions improve this weekend.

A storm system is stalled inside the Southern California Bight. It will bring periods of gusty winds, a large west-northwest swell (especially for the Outer Waters), rain, and isolated thunderstorms to the waters today.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will affect most of the coastal waters through much of the weekend. Look for seas of 10-15 feet across the Outer Waters and the nearshore Central Coast Waters, and 4 to 7 feet inside the Southern California Bight. Wind directions will vary considerably through the course of the storm which will will result in rough, confused seas, especially south of Point Conception.

NE winds will prevail through Saturday morning as nearly stationary storm system spins inside the Southern California Bight. Winds will be strongest from Ventura to Santa Monica (20-30 knots), but NE winds gusting up to 25 knots will occur nearshore from Palos Verdes south through Orange County. NE winds may reach the Channel Islands with much lower chances for Catalina Island.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon for zones 379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).