textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

22/904 AM.

Cooler weather is expected through the weekend with most temperatures within a few degrees of normal by Saturday. May gray Low clouds and fog will develop near the coast and push into the valleys overnight for the next several night. Additional cooling is expected next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

22/106 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement through the period. At upper levels, weak trough will move across the area on Monday then a rather impressive low will drop into the Great Basin in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. At the surface, moderate to strong onshore will prevail with some increase in northwesterly flow.

Forecast-wise, rather benign weather is expected to continue through the period. Given the upper level pattern and continued onshore pressure gradient, a "May Gray" will most likely continue through the period with stratus pushing well inland each night and morning. Other than the stratus issues, skies are expected to remain mostly clear.

As for temperatures, expect a continued cooling trend for the region through Wednesday. On Thursday, there may be some slight warming as the upper low ejects out of the Great Basin area.

Finally as for winds, gusty onshore winds can be expected each afternoon and evening. Additionally, there may be some increasing northwesterly winds in the usual locations (Santa Ynez Range, I-5 Corridor, etc.), but do not anticipate any widespread advisory worthy winds.

AVIATION

22/1605Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

At KPMD KWJF, High confidence in VFR conditions with seasonally gusty afternoon and evening southwest winds.

At KPRB, there is a 40% chance of IFR ceilings Sat 11-16Z, otherwise high confidence in VFR conditions with seasonally gusty afternoon and evening south winds.

For all other sites, High confidence in seasonal IFR/MVFR ceilings. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and ceiling heights.

KLAX...High confidence in seasonal MVFR ceilings. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in seasonal MVFR ceilings. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours).

MARINE

22/853 AM.

High confidence in fairly quiet conditions through the weekend with minimal risks of Small Craft Advisories (SCA) except for very localized winds of 20 to 25 kt just south of Point Conception each evening.

Winds and seas will be rising for Monday through Thursday. High confidence in SCA conditions for the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island. Moderate risk for SCA for the nearshore Central Coast waters and the Santa Barbara Channel, with a low risk elsewhere. Choppy seas will be building everywhere as a result of those winds.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.