textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

25/812 PM.

It will be dry through at least Friday. Look for above normal temperatures both today and Thanksgiving Day. A cooling trend will develop Friday and over the weekend as an upper low approaches the area.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

26/1235 AM.

All mdls and ensembles are now converging on a dry solution for the weekend. Saturday's forecast is now totally dry as dry NW flow aloft will prevail. There will likely be a coastal marine layer. 2 to 4 degrees of cooling from better onshore flow to the east and lower hgts will bring most cst/vly max temps into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

There is a slim chc (20 percent) for some light rain over LA county on Sunday as a minimum of ensemble members bring an inside slider ear enough to the west to pick up some moisture. The much more likely outcome will be a dry inside slider with partly cloudy skies. Falling hgts and an increase in clouds will cool temps an additional 2 to 4 degrees. This will bring max temps down to 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

North winds will set up behind the inside slider, but right now it does not look like much of an event.

Pretty dull weather slated for Mon and Tue with a weak ridge on Monday and an approaching trof on Tue. Weak offshore flow should keep the low clouds away, although if the trof arrives a little early there may be some morning coastal stratus on Tuesday. Look for 2 to 3 degrees of warming on Monday with the ridge and little change on Tuesday.

The mdls are not in good agreement but do hint at a period of unsettled weather in the Wed-Fri days 8-10 time period.

AVIATION

26/1303Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based inversion with a top near 800 ft and a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in all TAFS, except KPRB and KCMA where there is moderate confidence in TAFs. Winds and wind gusts may remain below 15 kts at KCMA through the period.

For KPRB...Moderate confidence. There is a 30 percent chc of LIFR conds through 16Z. If cigs do arrive, there is a a 25 percent chc of 1/4SM FG 10Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of 4SM BR conds through 16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 7kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. East to northeast winds are possible from through 18Z, but should remain below 10 kt.

MARINE

26/150 AM.

Conditions will will remain relatively mild through Thanksgiving. However, there is a moderate chance of north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura to Santa Monica through Thursday morning. Localized wind gusts to 25 knots are possible nearshore along the Central coast, with best chances from Cayucos south to Morro Bay each night through morning this week.

Winds and seas will likely (60% chance) increase to SCA levels once again across the Outer Waters as early as Thursday night or Friday. Nearshore along the Central Coast and across the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will increase Saturday afternoon and evening, but chances for widespread SCA conditions are low.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance of widespread SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to around 10 to 12 feet across the outer waters, and 4 to 6 feet inside the Southern California Bight. There is a low chance of widespread Gale Force Winds this weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST today for zones 88-358-369-371-372-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.