textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

05/842 AM.

Light offshore winds will weaken through today. Benign weather will continue this weekend with a low chance for morning coastal fog. A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

05/255 AM.

The warm up will continue through next week. While all mdls are warm the EC and its ensembles continue to advertise the most heat. The east Pac ridge will continue to dominate the Srn CA weather. There is decent agreement that on Monday and Tuesday the hgts will be near 586 dam. After that the GFS weakens the high to about 580 dam while the EC keeps it near 586 dam on Wed and then 589 dam on Thu. For perspective, the average Dec hgt is 571 dam.

At the sfc offshore flow will continue. The offshore flow will be weak most of the time but will rise to moderate levels on Tuesday when there will be gustier winds in the morning. But with no upper level or thermal support its doubtful that there will be advisory level winds on any of the days.

The ensembles do point to the EC's solution and the max temps have been adjusted upwards through the period. Even with this boost there is a 30 percent chc that they are still too low. Right now the forecast call for 2 to 4 degrees of warming Mon and 1 to 3 degrees on Tuesday. The csts will likely cool a degree or two Wed as Tuesday's offshore flow relaxes and allows for an earlier seabreeze. Away from the csts max temps will rise another 1 to 2 degrees each day. Monday's max temps will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and by Thursday most max temps will be 12 to 18 degrees over normal (about 8 degrees at the coasts). Thursday's highs will be in the lower to mid 80s in the vlys and the 70s across the csts.

AVIATION

05/1629Z.

At 16Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. A surface based inversion top was at 600 feet and 16 degrees Celsius.

There is a 30% chance of LIFR FG on Saturday at KPRB 10-16Z. The chance of any other lowered categories elsewhere is 10% or less.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday, except for a 10% chance of LIFR FG Saturday 12-16Z. East winds are likely at times in the morning hours, but the chance of exceeding 8 knots is less than 10%.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday with typical winds.

MARINE

05/829 AM.

Moderate confidence in low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds for the Central Coast waters beyond 20 miles from shore starting tonight or Saturday Night. NE winds near 20 knots likely each night and early morning into next week nearshore from Port San Luis and northward. Otherwise, moderate confidence in unusually light winds and small seas through at least this weekend.

There is a chance of dense fog forming over the coastal waters tonight or this weekend, with the highest chances south of Point Conception. Confidence is low on timing and coverage.

Abnormally high tides will peak this morning then lower each day through next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).