textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/248 AM.

Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

30/1214 PM.

For the extended, models start out in good agreement on Tuesday, but then start to diverge noticeably Wednesday through Friday. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will still be over the area with weak offshore surface flow. So, will expect clear skies, comfortable temperatures (upper 60s and 70s) and some weak offshore winds.

For the Wednesday through Friday time period, forecast confidence wanes dramatically. This decrease in forecast confidence is due to noticeable uncertainties in the track of a couple of upper lows. At this time, there is high confidence in a gradual cooling trend through this period. However, confidence in rain potential is very low. The GFS family keeps the area dry while the ECMWF family indicates the potential for some shower activity across the area. If any shower activity should develop, it would likely be on the light side in terms of amounts. So, the forecast will have some slight chance POPs for some areas through this period with a hope of more model agreement in future runs.

AVIATION

31/0616Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF Package. VFR CIGs with occasional periods of MVFR conditions except for KPMD/KWJF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR CIGs with occasional periods of MVFR. Isolated -SHRA before 31/10Z, followed by occasional to intermittent -RA thereafter. 60% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8kts & 25% chance of 10 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR CIGs with periods of MVFR expected. -SHRA chances increase after 31/12Z.

MARINE

30/836 PM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday evening, except for a low chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers Saturday. A marine weather statement (MWSLOX) has been issued to highlight the very low, but present risk for isolated waterspouts through Saturday morning across the inner waters south of Pt Conception including nearshore (PZZ650/655).

SCA-level NW winds likely to form Saturday Night and Sunday from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, including the western Santa Barbara Channel. NE winds under SCA-levels likely to follow on Monday. SCA-level NW winds will return Tuesday afternoon roughly across the same waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.