textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/114 PM.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at times through Thursday with some breaks in the weather during which little to no rain will fall. Significant snow accumulations are expected in the mountains. A period of dry weather is expected Friday through Sunday before another storm moves in early next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

16/219 PM.

For the time being most of the ensembles are indicating dry weather on Friday but confidence drops over the weekend as there are quite a few members showing rain either Saturday or Sunday or both. Any rain on Saturday would likely be light but there are increasing ensemble members showing higher rain rates on Sunday into Monday. And rain chances continue into the middle of next week, though it will likely take at least into later this week before the models get a handle on the timing of each of the individual waves coming through.

AVIATION

17/0143Z.

At 0022Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAFs. Behind a cold front, scattered showers will affect the area, with periodic MVFR conds when showers occur. There is a 20-30% chance of brief IFR conds in heavier showers. Otherwise, VFR conds with periodic gusty winds are expected across the area.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Flight categories may shift frequently between MVFR to VFR with periodic showers possible through the period. Low confidence in the timing of flight category changes. Gusty SW-W winds will begin to decrease after around 10Z, shifting to the NW. Additional rain is expected over the site after around 20Z Tue.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Moderate confidence in improving conditions with flight conds shifting between MVFR to VFR (confidence in timing of flight category changes will remain low).

MARINE

16/138 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE FORCE westerly winds (with a possible slight lull in wind speeds late tonight and Tuesday morning). From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level westerly winds. SCA level seas will continue through Friday (peaking on Wednesday). For Friday night and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE FORCE westerly winds (with a possible slight lull in wind speeds late tonight and Tuesday morning). From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level westerly winds. SCA level seas will continue through Thursday night (peaking on Wednesday). For Friday night and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in GALE FORCE winds. For Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level southwesterly winds. For Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, there is a 50-70% chance of GALE FORCE winds. From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level winds. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

BEACHES

16/138 PM.

A period of very large waves is expected across the coastal waters today through Friday, with surf generally peaking Tuesday and Wednesday across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, see the CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an elevated chance of coastal flooding or minor tidal overflows, especially during the time of the high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday. A coastal flood advisory may be needed should swell guidance remain consistent, along with wind- driven factors.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX). Flood Watch now in effect until midnight PST tonight for zones 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).