textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/908 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring warm and dry conditions through midweek along with locally breezy northeast winds at times across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A significant cooling trend is expected to begin Wednesday, with light rain or drizzle possible Thursday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

19/318 AM.

The cooling trend will continue through at least Friday as a low pressure system around 560 dam, will move about 150 mb SW of SoCal. This system will be pretty weak in terms of rain, with light rain showers or drizzle possible Thursday through Friday, mainly for areas south of Point Conception. However, as this system doesn't have a ton of moisture with it, rainfall totals of around 0.10 inches or less is expected.

The lowering heights and lack of significant offshore flow will lead to at least a 3 day cooling trend with coast and valley max temps falling from the lower to mid 70s Wednesday to the mid to upper 60s on Friday. Marine layer stratus will likely redevelop and will affect portions of the coast through the period. Aside from the low clouds, skies will be partly cloudy Thursday and Friday.

As for Saturday and Sunday, weather those days seem fairly benign so far, as both EC and GFS suggest a return to weak offshore flow and increasing 500 mb heights once again. The famous pair of offshore flow and increasing 500mb heights will likely lead to widespread warming of 2-5 degrees each day.

Both the EC and GFS ensembles and their AI equivalents suggest rain the last few days of the month and possibly into the beginning of the new month, but the timing has been pushed back and amounts have seemed to lightened over the past 3 runs or so.

AVIATION

19/1711Z.

At 1641Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 2000 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Generally expecting VFR conditions. 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KLGB after 12Z Tuesday.

Light LLWS and Turbulence possible over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Could affect sites: KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, & KBUR.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chc for BKN002-004 and 1/4SM-1/2SM between 14Z and 17Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Light LLWS possible from 21Z through forecast period.

MARINE

19/732 AM.

Localized northeast Santa ANA wind gusts of 20-25 knots may occur at times Monday evening through Tuesday morning between Channel islands harbor and Mailbu. These winds could reach Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands at times (15-20 knots).

Otherwise and elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Wednesday, with a low chance (30%) of SCA winds across the Outer Waters beyond 40 NM from shore - Thursday into the weekend.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities less than 1 NM may impact the coastal waters at times into next week, but low confidence in timing and location.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.