textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/601 PM.

A cooling trend will affect the region Friday into the weekend with max temps dropping to below normal by Sunday. The sticky tropical air will finally exit the region by this weekend. Marine layer clouds will likely return to many coastal areas.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

10/219 PM.

Not much change through Wednesday, with zonal flow continuing at the upper levels. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue with light northerly offshore flow each night through morning. There will likely be some morning low clouds each day with the greatest coverage across the Central Coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear.

By Thursday, deterministic models and ensembles suggest the ridge will begin to build back west, which would bring warmer temperatures to the area once again. Onshore flow to the east is also forecast to trend weaker slightly weaker Thursday morning. The greatest question is how progressive this westward movement of the ridge is, so while temperatures are likely to begin to increase, to what extent and how quickly remains uncertain. What does appear to be more clear is that any warming trend will likely not be nearly as warm as the last couple of days.

No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the mountains and deserts and the typical near advisory level evening gusts across the SW corner of SBA county.

AVIATION

11/0554Z.

At 0509Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the inversion was at 2800 ft with a temperature of 30 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for all inland sites.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KSBP where there is a 30-40 percent chc of LIFR conds 11Z-16Z. Moderate confidence in TAFS for KLAX, KSMO and KLGB where there is 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-16Z. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of BKN008 conds 12Z-16Z. There is a 30% chance that east wind component reaches 8 kts 06Z-16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

10/738 PM.

Conditions are expected to become increasingly hazardous across the outer waters into the weekend. A Gale Watch (50-60% chc) has been issued for PZZ676/673 Saturday evening into Monday morning. The coastal Jet may develop across PZZ670 Saturday evening causing winds to increase there as well, but confidence in winds reaching Gale force is low at this time. Otherwise, SCA winds are expected across the outer waters through Saturday afternoon or longer. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to reach into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially during afternoon/eve hours) through early next week.

BEACHES

10/823 PM.

The potential for moderate coastal flooding will continue through this evening, mainly around evening high tide for south facing shores. Even though the south swell from post tropical cyclone Marie is subsiding, the tides remain very high. The actual observed tides have been running about 6 to 8 inches above predictions, with the evening tides near or exceeding 7 feet.

While impacts will not be as extreme as the past few days, possible impacts include continued beach erosion, flooded sandy beach areas, bike paths, and parking lots, as well as low-lying roads. Some areas that may continue to see impacts are: the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Avalon on Catalina Island, and Oxnard to Malibu (including the Pacific Coast Highway near Point Mugu).

Beach Hazards Statements (BHS, CFWLOX) are in effect through this evening for the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties due to these very high evening tides.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Monday morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).