textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/730 PM.

Below normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. Unsettled conditions with scattered off and again showers will prevail through Friday. Warmer and drier conditions will resume early next week.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

21/237 PM.

The low pressure system will clear out of the region over the weekend, and a weak ridge of high pressure will set up early next week. This will allow for a gradual warming and drying trend, with chances for weak to moderate Santa Ana Winds at times. Highs early next week will rise to a couple degrees above normal, with high 60s to low 70s common. This warmer spell however will be much cooler than last week, when highs in the 80s were widespread.

A dry weather pattern is favored through the end of the month. The next signal for rain chances starts in early February.

AVIATION

22/0206Z.

At 2320Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2700 ft with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Low to moderate confidence for remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hours and categories by 1 or 2. Expecting -SHRA chances for coastal and valley sites, which may occur at any time during the forecast period, however scattered heavier showers are possible starting as early as 06Z.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Generally expecting BKN/OVC 010-025 through the period, although could fall to 008 through 12Z. 20-40% chc of -SHRA 14-23Z. Moderate confidence that any east wind component remains under 8 kts thru the period.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. IFR-MVFR cigs likely to return after 06Z Thu. Forecast sounding and MOS guidance suggest that there exist a slight chance for LIFR CIGs to develop 06Z-12Z.

MARINE

21/208 PM.

Winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through Thursday, then there is a 30 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa Barbara Channel Friday into Saturday morning. Another round of light Santa Ana winds is forecast to return Saturday night into Sunday, but chances are low for any impactful nearshore winds at this time.

Rain showers are possible from this afternoon through Thursday night, starting west and moving east through the timeframe. This activity could linger into early Friday morning across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

There is a very low chance (5% chance) for a thunderstorm or two to develop on Thursday focused south of Point Conception.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.