textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

06/527 PM.

High pressure aloft will build across the area, resulting in a warming and drying trend through the weekend as the flow pattern switches from onshore to offshore. Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are likely Saturday through Monday. A storm system will move over the region the latter half of next week and could bring moderate to heavy rain.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

06/218 PM.

Another hot Santa Ana day Monday, potentially even warmer than Sunday with more daily high temperature records possible.

A return to onshore flow is expected Tuesday afternoon as high pressure over the West coast starts to shift east. This will lead to 5-15 degrees of cooling for coastal and most valley areas while far interior areas see little change. These trends will continue into Wednesday with increasing chances for a marine layer return to coast and valleys.

Models continue to advertise the next storm moving into the area later next week, however there remains a huge range of possible outcomes and timing. The most likely outcome is a moderate storm impacting the area with 1-3 inches of rain later Thursday into Friday. However, the timing in the models ranges anywhere from as early as Wednesday morning to as late as Saturday. And there are still about 10% of the ensemble solutions, including the 12z deterministic GFS, that keep all rain well north of the SoCal.

AVIATION

07/0542Z.

At 0455Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Overall, moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 2 hours, with flight cats off by one or two when Cigs are present. LLWS and Turbulence is possible over mountainous terrain. KSBP has the highest chance for these issue through 18Z Fri and again after 00Z Sat.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. Periods of SCT-BKN008 coverage through around 12Z Fri. Then, better confidence for more uniform IFR CIGs through 17Z Fri. 30% chance of LIFR Cigs from 10Z to 16Z Fri. No significant east wind component expected through 06Z Sat, then low chance (15%) reaching 7-8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in the 06Z TAF with VFR conds expected. Very low chance (5%) of LIFR CIGs from 10Z to 16Z Fri.

MARINE

06/804 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas (peaking 12-16 feet) will continue. Additionally, local gusts of 35 kt will occur at times around Point Conception tonight, and will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening. For Sunday through Tuesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday night, a combination of SCA level winds and seas is expected. For Saturday through Tuesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Across a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where SCA level winds are expected during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday night.

Through Friday, large tidal swings between morning high tide and afternoon low tides (7-8 ft changes) will cause strong currents nearshore. The large west-northwest swell combined with the high tides will create breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor and possibly Ventura Harbor.

BEACHES

06/805 PM.

A long-period northwest swell will continue to bring high surf, dangerous rip currents and some coastal flooding to the local beaches through Friday night and Saturday.

Coastal Flood Advisories, High Surf Advisories, and a Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect for all coastal areas.

Please refer to LAXCFWLOX and LAXSRFLOX for the latest details.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 11 AM PST Friday for zones 342-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).