textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/131 PM.

A warming trend will continue through Wednesday, with dangerous expected for many areas through Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the mountains and the Antelope Valley this afternoon. Gusty northwest to north winds are forecast for southern Santa Barbara County and the LA and Ventura interior mountains during the afternoon and overnight hours today and especially Wednesday. Cooler weather will begin to arrive on Thursday.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

14/217 PM.

Very little change in the pattern after Friday and through the middle of next week with daytime highs within a few degrees of normal. Day to day temperature trends will mostly be 3 degrees or less either way and generally tied to the pressure gradient trends. There is another little surge of tropical moisture this weekend as a decaying tropical storm moves up the coast. This could trigger another chance of isolated mountain convective into early next week, and PW's increase back up to around 1.5", so at the very least humidities will remain above normal making it feel hotter than it actually is.

AVIATION

14/1720Z.

At 1610Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 1100 ft. The top of the inversion was at 3000 ft with a max temperature of 26 C.

Moderate to high confidence in VFR TAFs at all sites, highest away from coasts. There is a 30% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KLAX/KSMO/KLGB/KSMX after 08Z (except after 04Z at KSMX).

There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms at KPMD/KWJF from 19Z to 02Z. Biggest threat would be gusty erratic outflow winds up to 50 kt, turbulence, and lightning. There is also a chance for a brief heavy downpour.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN004-007 cigs after 08Z, with best chances BKN005-007. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 10% chance for 10kt west winds from 01Z-04Z.

MARINE

14/201 PM.

Northwest winds will increase this afternoon to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the Outer Waters and will continue through Thursday night. There is also 40% chance of Gales later Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence is not high enough to warrant a Gale Watch at this point. Seas are forecast to build to near 10 feet in conjunction with these winds. The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters along the Central Coast each afternoon and evening through Thursday night.

Winds are expected to improve Friday through the weekend while the northwest swell lowers. However, short period choppy seas from a southerly swell associated with a tropical system to our south and west will impact our waters this weekend.

BEACHES

14/201 PM.

Hazardous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced southerly swell continues. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through late Wednesday evening, with a chance it will be extended through Thursday evening.

For this weekend, distant storms over the East Pacific waters well south of the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in even more significant beach hazards.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday night for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).