textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

29/106 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow reestablishes, then the flow pattern will switch to offshore flow Monday and bring warmer temperatures. Gusty Santa Ana winds will be possible across the Southland early Monday. A cooling trend will develop for Tuesday and Wednesday as a storm system will approaches the region. There is a chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday, mainly south of Point of Conception.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

29/133 PM.

The inside-slider trough will move into the region between Wednesday and Thursday. There is a lot of uncertainty given the cutoff nature of the system. While EPS forecast ensembles lean wetter with the system than the forecast, the CMC and GEFS solutions lean drier. EPS member solutions are starting to lean drier and produce less precipitation in the current run relative to last several. Given the time of year and the nature of the trough, amounts with this storm will very likely be light at best. A colder, showery, and windy pattern seems to be more of the story with this system, but any changes in movement either farther offshore or farther inland will produce different results. Regardless, a much cooler air mass should be expected for Wednesday and Thursday along with breezy to gusty winds. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed either on Wednesday night or Thursday night.

The latest forecast ensembles trend toward a warming trend for the end of next week, but the air mass will likely to take a few days to recover. A cold start to Friday morning could linger as a colder and drier air mass will continue. CMC temperatures mean suggest the coldest day of the stretch occurring on Thursday night through Friday morning.

AVIATION

29/1707Z.

At 1700Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1800 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in forecasts. High confidence in VFR conditions for KBUR, KVNY, KWJF and KPMD. For coastal sites, moderate confidence in current forecasts due to uncertainties with the behavior of the marine layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 4 hours of current forecast with flight categories off by 1 category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 4 hours of current forecasts. Also, there is a 40% chance of LIFR conditions 08Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

MARINE

29/113 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds. From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels. The only exception will be on Monday with a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.