textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/257 AM.

Warm and dry conditions with sunny skies are expected at least through mid week, with breezy northeast winds at times. A noticeable cooling trend will start Thursday, with temperatures falling to near normal by Friday. Rain is likely at some point between late this week and early next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

10/257 AM.

Still not much if any clarity on the xtnd fcst. At least three large systems will smash into the PACNW. The first is slated to pinch off an upper low that is fcst to move into Baja during the day Friday. There now seems like there might be a lull between systems Sat and Maybe Sun and then maybe a stronger system sometime Monday thru Wednesday. There has not been much run to run consistency with the mdls and even less agreement between individual mdls so confidence really remains quite low.

Some rain seems very likely sometime Friday and Saturday although amounts will probably be on the light side. There does seem to be some consensus that Sunday will be the day least likely to have rain although there still is some chc. The details on the system early next week are still quite fuzzy but now it looks like it will be the biggest and wettest.

Hopefully the forecast will begin to coalesce later today or tomorrow.

AVIATION

10/1057Z.

At 0827Z at KLAX, there was a surface based inversion with a top near 1200 feet and a temperature of 25 deg C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites., except for KSMX where there is a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds 12Z-15Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 5kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

10/257 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Seas across the outer waters are beginning to subside, now in the 10 to 12 foot range. Small Craft Advisories were extended through noon today to account for some wind gusts up to 25 knots and seas lingering near 10 feet. Seas will remain slightly below SCA levels this afternoon through Wednesday. Expecting 10+ ft seas to return Thursday through at least Sunday, with models indicating potential for wave heights between 15 to 20 ft waves. At this time the peak looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast, with conds likely to remain just below SCA levels through late tonight. On Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. SCA level seas could return as early as Thursday night, increasing into the weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Thursday. SCA winds will then be possible at times Friday night through Sunday, mainly across the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon to evening hours.

There is a chance of showers sometime from Thursday night into the weekend across the coastal waters.

BEACHES

09/800 PM.

High tides will peak during the morning hours through Tuesday between 7.0 to 7.4 feet (MLLW). At the same time, a large and long period W-NW swell peaked in the waters today and will gradually subside through Tuesday. The waves remain large enough through around noon on Tuesday to produce hazardous conditions, along with the high tides. There is a continued risk of moderate coastal flooding along with dangerous swimming conditions. If you are in the coastal areas, heed advice from your local officials.

This coastal flooding event will differ in several ways from the past episodes this year. While these tides are high, they are not nearly as high as the record breaking tides from two weeks ago. Impacts to harbor areas and Naples Island will generally remain minor compared to previous events. Shallow flooding risks will continue in some locations, especially in low- lying walkways, but of a lesser degree less in severity and coverage.

For the beach-side coastal areas, the swell is from the west to northwest. Areas like Oceano and Cayucos on the Central Coast, and the Ventura County coast, have elevated risks of moderate coastal flooding. Impacts include things like flooded sandy beach areas, moderate beach erosion, as well as shallow flooding of beach parking lots and bike paths. Isolated damage is unlikely but cannot be ruled out especially considering the extent of beach erosion we have already seen - which limits the natural protective buffer between the ocean and coastal infrastructure. However, the swell is now subsiding and so the impacts are likely diminishing as well, although the Tuesday morning high tide may produce additional risks.

For the Central Coast, Ventura and LA County Coasts, a High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through noon on Tuesday. Otherwise, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Catalina Island and a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Santa Barbara Southern Coast through Tuesday morning.

Additional products will likely be needed through the week with a heightened risk this weekend. Stay tuned for updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).