textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/951 AM.

Hot and muggy conditions will continue through Friday with a high risk for heat-related illness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, with risks of lightning, fire starts, and erratic winds. Temperature and moisture relief will start over the weekend, but will increase again starting Tuesday, with a chance for showers and convection.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

28/338 AM.

Most of the ensemble models are favoring a trough pattern along the West coast next week, though some height rises are likely by mid week leading to a modest warming trend Wed-Fri. Most of the projections keep highs in check, at most maybe 2-4 degrees above normal, though there is maybe a 10-20 percent chance of highs 4-8 degrees above normal. A return to more muggy conditions is less likely than what models showed yesterday as the next tropical wave off Mexico gets steered well to the west.

AVIATION

28/1945Z.

At 1847Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 450 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 30 C.

Overall, moderate confidence TAF Package. For most of the period expecting BKN/OVC150. Low confidence in any marine layer clouds forming tonight, and for KSMX there is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period. For KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KPMD, and KWJF there is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that may produce gusty outflow winds.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. SCT to BKN cigs above 10KFT are expected to continue for the period, and the east wind component is expected to stay 6 kt or lower.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. SCT to BKN cigs above 10KFT are expected to continue for the period

MARINE

28/929 AM.

Through this weekend, high confidence in small craft advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters with short-period choppy seas. These hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along the Central and into the Santa Barbara Channel at times (especially afternoon/eve). Local gusts may approach 35 kt near Point Conception Saturday evening.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue across the coastal waters mainly north and west of Point Conception. There is a 10% chance of thunderstorms which could bring the threat of erratic winds, localized rough seas and cloud-to-surface lightning. For next week, most waters are likely to fall below SCA levels Monday and Tuesday. Increasing chances for SCA conditions later in the week but signal isn't strong, moderate at best.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 88-349-350-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 340>345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).