textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/531 AM.

A major and long lasting heat wave is expected to persist through all of next week with dangerously hot temperatures. Clouds and dense fog are expected over portions of the coastal waters this morning, most likely over the waters off the Central Coast.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

04/548 AM.

The hot weather will continue all of this coming week, but as offshore gradients are forecast to weaken slowly through the period. Although most days through Thursday should see offshore winds in the morning hours, the sea breeze may return as soon as Thursday. This translates to a very slow cooling trend, first most evident at the coasts, with perhaps more notable cooling Friday. There is a 20-30% chance that at least some heat advisories will be needed on Friday. More significant and widespread cooling is expected Saturday and continuing into early the next week. Recent model trends are indicating at least a 20-30% chance of some showers for the weekend based on the latest ensemble tracks of Hurricane Rachel. Some increasing swells from Rachel are possible as early as mid week.

AVIATION

04/1231Z.

At 0459Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1000 ft and a temp of 32 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for all sites through 06Z. There is a 10-20% chance of VLIFR/LIFR conds between 05/08Z-16Z. Moderate confidence in strength and direction for KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and KLAX. Winds may be shifty at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions expected, with lower confidence due to winds. East wind component peaking 04/14Z-18Z nearing 7-8kts, with gusts up to 15 kt possible.

KBUR...High confidence in the VFR 00Z TAF.

MARINE

04/531 AM.

Generally quiet conditions expected across the coastal waters through the forecast period. Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) gusts may occur each afternoon and evening between Point Conception and San Nicolas Island, off the coast of Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel.

BEACHES

04/532 AM.

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend, aside from the heat. Meanwhile, another hurricane (Rachel) will likely bring a larger- than- Polo southerly swell to southern California for much of the coming work week. The window of most concern is Tuesday through Friday. Elevated surf up to 5-6 ft is likely with a lower chance of high surf 7 ft or higher across exposed south facing beaches. High tides of 6.5-7.0 ft are expected. Unlike previous events, morning and evening tides will be similar in height. Initially, the swell will have a more SE direction (150-160) targeting areas like Long Beach Tuesday and Wednesday. As Rachel moves westward, the swell direction will become more southerly (170-190) Thursday and Friday targeting areas like Zuma. There is a high risk for Beach Hazard Statements and a moderate risk for Coastal Flood Advisories and High Surf Advisories along the LA/VTA coastline. Stay tuned for future updates.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>375-548-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.