textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/224 AM.

Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Thursday, with significant warming Friday through Sunday. Gusty north winds on Thursday will be followed by a moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event Friday through Saturday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

02/224 AM.

The ridge will weaken some on Sunday. More importantly the offshore flow will weaken dramatically and will only be around 1 mb. Offshore winds, if any, will not amount to much. The weaker offshore push will allow for an earlier and stronger sea breeze and this will cool the csts/vlys by 2 to 4 degrees. Continued airmass warming will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming to the interior.

On Monday a trof will push the ridge to the east and hgts will fall. The offshore flow turns onshore by 1 to 3 mb and this will lead to 5 to 10 degrees of cooling across the board. Despite this cooling max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the csts and vlys, but 6 to 12 degrees across the interior.

Mdl disagreement continues for on the upper level pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS still has more of a troffing pattern while the EC continues to favor ridging. Both mdls show onshore flow through the period. The ensembles are now shifting their focus a little more the GFS's way of thinking showing minimal change in temps Tue and noticeable cooling on Wed.

Both AI mdls indicate dry conditions through at least the 15th of the month. Both mdls continue to indicate continued above normal max temps.

AVIATION

02/1645Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX...there was no marine layer or marine inversion.

Overall...high confidence in 18Z TAFs as VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period.

Gusty west winds can be expected through this evening. Late tonight and Friday morning...gusty northeasterly will develop. Light LLWS and wind shear will be likely across the foothills and mountains.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10% chance of an easterly wind component near 8 knots 15Z-21Z.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. With developing offshore flow, there is a chance of light LLWS and turbulence around the airfield after 15Z.

MARINE

02/716 AM.

Widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected today across the majority of the coastal waters. A Gale Watch also is in effect for low-end GALES across the Outer waters this afternoon and this evening. Local gusts to 35 knots are also possible across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and the inner waters north of Point Sal.

Seas will build quickly today, peaking this evening. Seas could reach SCA levels (10-12) feet over the outer waters and inner waters north of Point Sal. Seas for the southern inner waters should peak around 4 to 7 feet. Wave heights should drop off rather quickly as winds shift to the northeast Friday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zones 349-351-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch remains in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for zones 369-375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Friday for zones 375>378. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through late tonight for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).