textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

18/900 PM.

Another storm will move into the area tonight into Thursday bringing more rain, mountain snow, gusty winds and cold temperatures. Then dry weather expected over the weekend and Monday before another storm is possible next Tuesday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

18/144 PM.

12z models now are trending later and lighter with the next storm, not arriving here until at least Monday night. In the meantime, the slow warming trend will continue through Monday, warming a few degrees each day, but still with some chilly mornings, possibly with areas of frost.

While there are still quite a few differing opinions on the next system, models are trending lighter, and delaying the arrival to later Monday or early Tuesday. There are still a handful showing 1-2 inches of rain but most solutions are under a half inch. Then likely dry weather the rest of the week.

AVIATION

19/0702Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or marine inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Good confidence that onset of rain will be accurate within +/- 2 hours from the current forecast. Generally expecting increasing southerly winds and MVFR conditions with rainfall after midnight. This activity in association with a cold front will progress eastward impacting LA county by mid-morning Thursday. Gusty westerlies are expected behind this front. There is a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms with 12Z-00Z Thursday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain and MVFR conditions may be off by +/- 2 hours from current forecast. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kt are likely around 14Z through about 18Z. There is a 15% chance that SE winds reach 20 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain and MVFR conditions may be off by +/- 2 hours from current forecast. Gusty SE winds followed by gusty westerlies after cold frontal passage.

MARINE

18/824 PM.

***UPDATE***

One important item to note: have moved the start times for the GALE WARNINGS across portions of the outer waters & nearshore waters adjacent to Central Coast to 3 AM and for the southernmost zone (PZZ676) to 6 AM. This is to account for a slightly faster arrival time of the Cold front.

For the Outer Waters and nearshore waters along the Central Coast, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through this evening, followed by an increase in wind speeds to GALE FORCE by sunrise Thursday. Along with high seas, these very hazardous conditions will continue through the evening. For Thursday night through Friday morning, a combination of SCA level winds and/or seas is expected. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds. Highest north of Point Conception. For Monday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday morning, high confidence in SCA level winds. From late Thursday morning through Thursday evening, there is a 60-80% chance of GALE FORCE winds. For Thursday night and Friday morning, high confidence in SCA level winds. For Friday afternoon through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

BEACHES

18/741 PM.

A period of very large waves will move across the coastal waters through Friday, with surf likely highest from Thursday afternoon through late evening across west and northwest facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, please see the CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details. Additionally, minor coastal flooding and tidal overflows will be possible at high tides.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Wind Warning in effect from 4 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for zones 38-344-345-353-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for zones 87-88-340>343-346>352-354>358-362-366>376-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday evening for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 AM PST Friday for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).