textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

05/1155 AM.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Friday as a weak upper low moves into the area. Warmer temperatures will return Saturday and peak Sunday with highs around 10 degrees above normal. A return to normal temperatures is expected by next Tuesday with a chance of light rain.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

05/1238 PM.

High pressure aloft will begin to shift east out of the area Monday but not before another day of well above normal temperatures.

Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and the rest of next week as the upper level pattern finally changes to more of a troughy pattern along the West coast. The first chance for rain still appears to be on Tuesday and models continue to indicate just a very light amounts of precip with that one, likely under a quarter inch in most areas. And there are at least 20-30% of the ensemble solutions showing little or no rain with this first system.

There's a second and third system later in the week into early the following week (between the 14th and 18th), the latter of which appears to be the strongest of the trio. Up until that time, most of the models are favoring mostly just light rain amounts. But there is overall high confidence in much cooler temperatures locally.

AVIATION

05/1839Z.

At 0852Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in TAFs, until 09Z Fri when MVFR cigs become possible at coastal sites south of Point Conception. However, there is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period at sites where cigs are forecast, and heights may be off by +/- 500 ft.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF, until around 09Z Fri when BKN010-BKN025 cigs become possible. However there is a 40% chance of VFR conditions through the period. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF, except for after 12Z there is a 10% chance of BKN010-BKN025 cigs developing.

MARINE

05/844 AM.

Offshore easterly winds will continue from Ventura to Malibu and out to Anacapa/Santa Cruz Islands at times thru Thursday morning.

By this evening, winds and seas are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through late tonight.

Seas are likely to reach SCA levels by Friday morning across the Outer Waters and nearshore along the Central Coast. The hazardous seas could last through Saturday evening especially south of Point Conception.

There is moderate chance for winds to reach SCA levels across the Outer waters south and west of the Channel Islands late Saturday afternoon into evening hours. Low to moderate chance for SCA winds across far northern waters (PZZ670) if the coastal jet develops.

Confidence increases by Sunday afternoon/evening for widespread SCA level winds to develop which could persist well into next week. These winds could spread into the Santa Barbara Channel & western portions of the PZZ655 at times. There is also a chance for GALES across climatologically favored waters. Hazardous seas are also likely as two rounds of swells propagate into our coastal waters mid-week.

BEACHES

05/852 AM.

An active storm pattern over the northern Pacific Ocean will generate a series of swells which will propagate towards our coastline, first arriving on Friday and lasting well into next week. There is a high chance of an extended period of elevated surf. There is high confidence in advisory level surf with minor coastal flooding possible Friday through Sunday morning, then moderate confidence in additional high surf Monday into Tuesday (and possibly longer) of next week.

Peak surf heights are likely to be between 10 to 15 ft for west- facing beaches along the Central Coast, and between 5 to 9 ft south of Point Conception.

***UPDATE AS OF 12 AM THURSDAY***

Have issued a High Surf Advisory for Santa Barbara County south coast valid from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM Saturday. See CFWLOX and SRFLOX for more details.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).