textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

24/1138 PM.

A high pressure system over the region will bring a significant warming trend to the area through late this week. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail with high temperatures remaining well above normal into the weekend. The hottest temperatures will likely occur Friday with daytime temperatures into the 80s and lower 90s. A cooling will develop over the weekend.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

25/254 AM.

An upper low will approach the northern on Saturday and will knock the ridge down a little as well a nudging it to the east. More importantly there will be a substantial reduction in the offshore flow. Mdls are showing a big increase in morning low clouds, but would not be surprised if this did not happen. It does look like there will be a fair amount of mid and high clouds in the morning. The reduction in offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys. The far interior will warm a few degrees as the cool air advection from the Central Vly will be much weaker.

An upper will cut off from the trof over Nrn CA on Sunday and begin to work its way to the south. Actual onshore flow will develop from the west and its much more likely that a decent marine layer cloud deck will develop. Max temps will fall about 10 degrees, but will still remain 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

The upper low will swing over the NE portion of the forecast area on Monday. The GFS is a little more westward and colder than the EC. This system is pretty dry and right now almost all of the ensemble members are dry, but there are a few that show rain over the LA/VTA mtns. So a non zero chc but under 10 percent and too low to include in the forecast. Cooler for sure, however, 558 dam hgts will combine with a deeper marine layer and onshore flow to bring another 2 to 3 degrees of cooling to the area. Max temps, as a result, will end up mostly in the 70s. Despite the cooling max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

The low will exit the area on Tuesday and max temps will warm 2 to 4 degrees.

Both AI-Mdls show little no chance of rain through the 11th of March with only the GFS-AI showing a weak system on the 12th.

AVIATION

25/1743Z.

At 1658Z at KLAX, the marine layer 800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 1500 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

Good confidence for inland TAFs. Low confidence for coastal sites. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and off by 2 categories. There is 10-20% chance that conditions may not arrive or develop at coastal sites.

KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. MVFR VSBY with CIGs 005-008 likely 11Z through 17Z. Arrival and clearing times accurate within +/- 3 hours. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAFs.

MARINE

25/846 AM.

While seas will remain relatively small across the Coastal Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds of 20-25 knots will be common through at least late Thursday night across the Outer Waters south and west of Point Sal, as well as for western and southern areas of the Santa Barbara Channel. Very localized wind gusts to Gale Force levels (34 knots) could occur near the Channel Islands each afternoon and evening through Thursday. There is a 20-50% chance for SCA level winds across similar areas Friday through Sunday.

Lower confidence in winds for the coastal waters north of Point Sal, but there is a 30-40% chance for SCA level wind gusts each evening through Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PST tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).