textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

08/256 AM.

The warming trend will continue today, then a weak storm system will move into the region and bring cooler temperatures and a chance of precipitation between Tuesday and Wednesday night. A warming trend is possible for late next week, then a cool, wet, and unsettled weather pattern will likely set up from the 15th to the 21st.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

08/254 AM.

On Wednesday the system (either a trof or weak upper low) will move to the SE and over Srn CA. It will bring clouds and a chance of rain through the day. This system does not have that much moisture to work with and rainfall totals are forecast to be under a quarter inch. Max temps will not change much from Tuesday and will remain in the 60s for most of the area.

Not the best mdl agreement on the Thursday fcst with a number of ensemble members keeping an upper low and rain in the area while many others shower a dry ridge. The ensemble based forecast mixes all of this together and come out with a partly to mostly cloudy day with a slight chc of showers and a warming trend. Its likely that all of these things will not occur together and will wait for a little better agreement to see if the day will be mostly sunny and warmer or cloudier with some rain and little change in temps.

There is better agreement that Friday will feature a weak ridge with mostly clear skies and about 3 degrees of warming which will bring most max temps up into the upper 60s or lower 70s.

Starting Saturday and persisting well into the week of the 15th as the storm window opens and series of storms will likely roll through the area. Rain will be possible on any of the days from Saturday the 14th through Friday the 20th. Several of these systems could bring significant rainfall. It will take at least several more days to pin down the exact timing of these systems so stay tuned. It is likely that some of these will be coldest storms of the season so far with snow levels down to 4000 or even lower with plenty of snow.

AVIATION

08/1033Z.

Around 0745Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 1500 feet with a temperatures near 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast, except moderate confidence for southern Los Angeles County coastal terminals and KPRB. There is a moderate chance of VFR conditions lingering through the period at KPRB. There is a low to moderate chance of LIFR conditions between 12Z and 16Z at southern Los Angeles County coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any easterly winds winds will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

08/229 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence exists in the swell forecast. Higher confidence exists in the wind forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands, SCA conditions are likely (60-80 percent chance) through much of the week. There are a few periods where the swell and wind may drop off, but winds and seas will likely remain near hazardous levels to small craft. Local GALE force gusts will likely develop from late this afternoon through Monday morning, but there areal extent will not be large enough to warrant a Gale Warning being issued. There is a moderate to high (40-50 percent) chance that GALES could become more widespread, especially this evening.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 40-60 percent chance of SCA conditions this afternoon and tonight, highest for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and into the western fringes of the southern California bight. There is a lesser (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds on Monday, but chances will rise again to a 40-60 percent chance on Tuesday evening, and increasing further for Wednesday and Thursday to a 50-70 percent chance, highest for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast.

Marine conditions may be poor for the upcoming weekend with rain, widespread hazardous seas, and gusty winds. Though outside of the forecast period, there is a moderate chance of GALES early next week.

BEACHES

08/227 AM.

Remnant swell energy will continue to bring marginal high surf to Southland beaches this morning. Elevated surf will likely continue this week. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance that a high surf advisory could be reissued for west and northwest shores between Tuesday night and Wednesday night with a storm system dropping into the region. A much colder and strong storm is expected over next weekend with a higher potential high surf.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PST Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).