textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/519 PM.

Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A cooling trend will continue through the weekend as onshore flow returns. Gusty Santa Ana winds are possible Monday with warmer temperatures. Then turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of rain Wednesday.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

28/128 PM.

Monday's Santa Ana event will quickly shift back onshore Tuesday and could see some patchy dense fog reaching the beaches. Otherwise, a quiet day with temperatures near normal with generally sunny skies.

There is a chance of light rain across the area Wednesday as another inside slider trough drops into the Great Basin. Ensemble solutions are still exhibiting a wide range of possibilities but at least half of the solutions indicate some light rain developing. It could also be dry with some light offshore winds, but the trends favor the light rain scenario. Most of the solutions show rain amounts under a half inch, and mostly under a quarter inch.

Most of the ensembles show rain ending Wednesday night but there area a few ensembles that keep the upper low close by with lingering showers into Thursday. Most, though favor a dry day Thursday and Friday with warming temperatures.

AVIATION

29/0118Z.

At 0009Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 1500 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Low confidence in the coastal TAFs and low to moderate confidence in the valley TAFs. The timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by at least +/- 3 hours and flight cats may be off by one or two when restrictions are present.

There is a 30% chance of V/LIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z to 17Z Sat. 20-30% chance of LIFR CIGs at KSMX from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Low confidence for KSBA where arrival of CIGs could be off +/- 4 hours with a 30% CIGs do not arrive or remain intermittent in nature. KBUR and KVNY have a 20-30% chance of IFR or lower conds between 08Z to 16Z Sat.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival of IFR CIGs 005-009 with 3SM to 4SM VSBYs may be off +/- 3 hours from forecast of 06Z. 10-20% chance conds drop to LIFR overnight. Moderate confidence in VFR conditions to return after 16Z Sat. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR to LIFR conditions from 08Z to 16Z Sat.

MARINE

28/109 PM.

A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below SCA levels currently, it is expected to peak late this afternoon into the evening hours with borderline SCA seas possible 30NM from central coast shoreline (PZZ670). These conditions could spread into northwestern portions of PZZ673 at times especially this afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening, but still looks unimpressive and borderline at best. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across all inner waters through the weekend.

Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday. However, there could be some SCA winds nearshore from Ventura to Malibu on Monday. Low confidence for another round of offshore winds on Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).