textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

26/137 PM.

Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk of heat-related illness. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. Significant cooling is likely by Sunday or Monday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

26/134 PM.

A large trough over the west coast will shove our heat-inducing high to the east, and strengthen onshore gradients. This should enable temperatures to quick drop back below normal by Sunday or Monday, bringing much relief to the region. The marine layer will likely reform and blanket all coastal areas and some valleys.

The one wrinkle to pay attention to is another possible round of tropical storm remnants moving over the region in the next week window of Wednesday through Friday. The operational GFS has been rather consistently bullish on a lot of moisture with light to moderate rain moving right through the southern half of the state. Peering into the GFS and EC ensembles however, the majority (albeit slim) of solutions are dry with absolutely no rain as the tropical moisture stays off the coast. With that said, 10 to 30 percent of the projections so some light rain (depending on which county you are in), with a 0 to 5 percent chance of moderate to heavy rain. Because of the low probabilities of significant rain, this is not something to get too excited about yet, but it is something to monitor.

AVIATION

27/0556Z.

At 0555Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the inversion was 2000 feet with a temperature of 33 degrees Celsius. High confidence in the 06Z TAF package. VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the period as increasing high clouds tonight are expected to inhibit any stratus formation. However, there is a 10% chance of low CIGs forming along some of the coastline, most likely along the Central Coast. If restrictions were to occur, LIFR are expected.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in the 06Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. KBUR...High confidence in the 06Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE

26/759 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, there is high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing along with steep, short period seas approaching SCA levels. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of Gale force winds on Sunday around Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Steep, short- period, seas can be expected through the week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday through Monday. Steep, short-period, seas can be expected through the week.

BEACHES

26/824 PM.

Southerly swell from post-tropical storm Iselle is moving through the coastal waters and is expected to continue through Thursday. Swell heights of 3-5 feet with a period of 11-12 seconds can be expected, producing elevated surf and dangerous rip currents along south- facing beaches of Ventura and LA counties. Therefore, a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT is in effect through 11 PM Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 341>345-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).