textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

07/757 PM.

Warmer temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained cooling trend takes us into the weekend, along with a chance of rain.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

07/157 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday morning or afternoon, at least for Los Angeles and Ventura counties with similar risks highlighted in the short term. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be common through Saturday night, highest across the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura mountains and where thunderstorms occur. Peak rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.75 inches seem likely given the convective nature of this cold April storm. Several inches of snow is possible mainly above 7000 feet, but locally lower. Daytime highs in the 60s will be common at low elevations Saturday and into Sunday.

Broad westerly flow aloft sets up in the storms wake with isolated to scattered showers continuing through at least Monday. There is a 60-80 percent chance of a second uptick in shower activity Sunday into Sunday night as a second disturbance passes to the north with around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms focused from Ventura County and especially to the north.

Drier west to northwest flow sets up atop the region early next week with rebounding temperatures into the 70s to near 80.

Above normal temperatures are favored into Mid April with odds slightly favoring above normal precipitation. So we might not be done with rain just yet.

AVIATION

08/0227Z.

At 2328Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs, except for KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, & KLGB. Some uncertainty vis and cigs, which may be shorter lived than forecast. Vis could be as low as 1SM at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty in arrival time of cigs, and how far vis will fall. There is a 30% chance CIGs do not arrive. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

07/850 PM.

Current Small Craft Advisories (SCA) look on track. SCA winds will continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. Local Gale force gusts (35 kts) are likely this evening through the overnight hours south of Point Conception. Wednesday afternoon to evening, gale force winds are possible south of Point Conception, especially near the Channel Islands. GALE Watches has been issued for the waters near the Channel Islands down south to San Nicolas Island (PZZ676) and for the Santa Barbara Channel (PZZ650). This watch covers Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours. Gusty SCA level winds are also possible for the inner waters south of Point Mugu Wednesday, focused on western and northern portions.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters starting Thursday night lasting into the weekend, bringing rainfall and the threat for thunderstorms.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for zones 650-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).