textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/239 AM.

A significant cool down is expected across southwest California through the middle part of the week. Widespread rain is likely Tuesday night or Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

LONG TERM (FRI-SUN)

19/245 AM.

The trof axis will be to the east of the area Friday morning. There will be rising hgts and clearing skies. Breezy NW to N winds will develop as well as offshore flow from the north develops at the sfc and is reinforced by the upper level support. Most max temps will rise 3 to 6 degrees. Even with the warming cst/vly temps will only reach the lower to mid 70s or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal.

As is so often the case with the passage of an upper low/trof offshore flow will develop. Right now it looks like a two day low to medium event and nothing like last Friday's. Max temps will warm 3 to 6 degrees Saturday and then change little on Sunday.

AVIATION

19/0940Z.

At 083Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 1500 ft with a temp of 24 deg C.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KPRB, KOXR and KCMA (30 percent chc of IFR conds 12Z-15Z) and KSMO, KLAX and KLGB (30 percent chc of MVFR Vis 12Z-17Z)

Good confidence in remainder of TAFs

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. However, there is a 30 percent chance of 5SM HZ 12Z-16Z. Any east wind component is expected to be 6 kt or less thru the period.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

19/222 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to persist over PZZ673-676 through late Monday night. There is also a 40% chance of SCA winds again for the two southern zones Thursday through Friday night.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, generally high confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to remain below SCA levels except for a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times Thursday night and Friday night.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, high confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to remain below SCA levels except for a 40% chance of SCA level wind gusts for the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday night and Friday night.

A moderate-strength storm system is becoming more likely in the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe. In addition to reduced visibilities in showers, there is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with the possibility of locally gusty and erratic winds and dangerous lightning. Conditions may become favorable for the formation of waterspouts with this system. Please monitor the latest forecasts and statements over the next couple of days as we draw closer to this event.

BEACHES

19/222 AM.

The combination of a west to northwest swell and a 3-ft southerly swell will bring elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet mainly to south and southwest-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through Tuesday morning.

In addition to the elevated surf, dangerous rip currents can be expected. Minor beach erosion and tidal overflows cannot be ruled out for low-lying beach areas around the times of high tides.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday morning for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).