textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/835 PM.

Steady cooling through Thursday with below normal temperatures through Saturday or Sunday. Ample low clouds each morning through the weekend, with patches of drizzle possible Thursday and Friday. Gusty onshore winds will impact interior areas through the week. A significant warming trend remains on track for next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

17/236 AM.

The weak troffing over the area Friday will give way to more zonal flow over the weekend. The onshore flow will weaken but only by a mb or two. Jun Gloom conditions will continue with just a smidge better clearing. Max temps will not change much perhaps a degree or warming in a few locations each day. The gusty onshore afternoon winds will continue as well.

A noticeable change in the weather is on tap for next week. Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the SE. Hgts will rise to about 594 dam. This increase in hgts will serve to smoosh the marine layer down and will limit the valley penetration. It will, however, strengthen the marine inversion which will make the coastal clearing a little more stubborn. At the sfc there will be about a 2 mb reduction in the onshore flow. These two factors will definitely keep the vlys a little clearer, but the coasts will maintain the night through morning low cloud pattern and due to the strong marine inversion some beaches may remain mired in the low clouds through the afternoon. The coasts will only see 1 or 2 degrees of warming each day, but the rising hgts and reduced marine layer will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming each day. By Tuesday many areas away from the csts will see above normal temps.

Looking further ahead into the middle of next week it is looking quite likely the strong and warm upper high will move over Srn CA. This will continue the warm up for the vly and other inland areas. (continued onshore flow will moderate the heat for the csts). There is about a 25 percent chc for heat headlines for the warmer inland valleys beginning Wednesday next week.

AVIATION

17/1140Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3000 ft with a temperature of 23 Celsius.

High confidence in KPMD & KWJF in VFR and gusty southwest winds.

High confidence in ceilings at all other airports. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 400 feet ceilings).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC008 conds could last until 15Z and SCT conds may not arrive until 20Z. Good confidence in early arrival Wed evening. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cig hgt could be anywhere from 005 to 010. SCT/SKC conds could arrive as late 17Z.

MARINE

16/852 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across most of coastal waters through the forecast period.

Wednesday, local gusts could reach 21 kts (30-40% chance) during the afternoon and evening timeframe for the waters south of Point Conception, especially for western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and southward to San Miguel Island. Breezy conditions will be ongoing for the waters south of Point Conception each afternoon/evening through Friday, with another chance for SCA gusts Friday afternoon. Lower confidence from Saturday onward, with a chance for widespread SCA conditions Sunday night.

BEACHES

16/821 PM.

A long period southerly swell (14 seconds and 18 seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at least Friday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Wednesday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los Angeles County Beaches, and portions of the Southern Santa Barbara County Beaches.

Tides of 7.0 to 7.4 feet are predicted to peak around 10 PM to 11:30 PM tonight (Tuesday Night), and will reach 6.6 to 6.9 feet around the same time Wednesday night. The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding along south exposed coasts, especially near Malibu and Long Beach. In addition, there is along potential for sneaker waves. Stay tuned for updates and refer to CFWLOX for additional details.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.