textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

25/752 PM.

A ridge of high pressure over the region will bring a significant warming trend to the area through Friday. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail with highs remaining well above normal into the weekend. The peak in temperatures will likely occur Friday, with daytime highs into the 80s and lower 90s. A cooling trend will develop over the weekend into early next week.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

25/205 PM.

The EC/GFS ensembles were in generally good agreement, and in better agreement than the deterministic. An upper level low and trof will approach the Central Coast on Sun. This system will move E and into central CA on Mon then into northern AZ on Tue. A dry upper level trof will move into the area on Wed.

Dry and cooler weather is expected on Sun with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and varying amounts of low clouds in the morning for the coast and vlys. The upper level low may bring a few showers to northern areas on Mon, but for now the NBM kept POPs below 15 percent and is not reflected in the fcst. Dry weather with mostly clear skies are expected Tue and Wed.

Daytime temps will be 5-10 deg above normal for many areas on Sun then cool back to near normal for the most part on Mon. It should warm back up to 4-8 deg above normal Tue and 5-9 deg above normal Wed.

AVIATION

26/0616Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 1100 feet with a temperature near 21 C.

Good confidence in inland TAFs.

Moderate confidence in coastal sites with cigs fcst as timing could be off by 1 or 2 hours and cigs could be off by +/-200 ft. Clearing time could be off by +/- 1 hour. There is a 30 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis at KSBA 13Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive as early as 10Z. There is a 30 percent chc of 1/4SM FG conds 13Z-16Z. Good confidence that an east wind component will be under 7kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF.

MARINE

25/751 PM.

Seas will remain relatively small across the Coastal waters through the week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds of 20-25 knots will be common across the Outer Waters south and west of Point Sal through at least late Thursday night or through Friday morning. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours.

There is a moderate chance that winds reach SCA levels across the northern Outer Waters Thursday afternoon/eve - An advisory may be issued with future updates (PZZ670).

For the nearshore waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA NW wind gusts through Thursday across the western portion. Chances increase to 30-50% Saturday night through Monday night, strongest over the western portion of the Channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).