textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

25/853 AM.

Temperatures will remain above normal across all valleys and interior locations through this weekend. Persistent marine layer will keep temperatures on the cooler side for coastal areas south of Point Conception through at least Thursday. After another warm up on Friday max temperatures will end up ten to 15 degrees above normal and will continue through the weekend. Cooler and cloudier conditions are likely early next week with rain possible mid week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

25/225 AM.

Srn CA will be under an area of strengthening SW flow through the period. Hgts will fall from about 579 dam on Saturday morning to ~568 dam on Tuesday morning. Gradients will slowly become more and more onshore through the period. There will be plenty of night through morning low clouds with patchy fog. The lowering hgts and increasing onshore flow will allow for decent vly coverage. Skies, otherwise will be mostly clear over the weekend but there will be increasing mid and high level clouds starting on Monday.

The lowering hgts, marine layer, increasing onshore flow and increasing clouds will all conspire to lower temps starting Sunday (Saturdays temps will be similar to Friday's). The current forecast call for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Sunday, 3 to 6 degrees on Monday and 5 to 10 additional degrees on Tuesday. By Tuesday max temps will be at or below normal for the first time since March 4th.

A chance of rain will develop Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as a trof/weak front is forecast to move through the area. Both AI-mdls have kept this timing but now show much less rainfall potential. Current ensemble and AI based forecasts now show that this will be a quarter to half inch storm. This could change and while timing confidence is high the rainfall forecast is not.

AVIATION

25/1801Z.

At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2800 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBP and KSMX with a 20-30 percent chc of LIFR/VLIFR conds 12Z-17Z Thu morning, otherwise VFR conds expected.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Cig hgt could be off by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds on Thu could arrive as late as 20Z. Low clouds could return as early as 26/01Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MARINE

25/834 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep seas expanding through Wednesday over offshore waters from the Central Coast down to San Nicolas Island. It will remain windy through Thursday Night and will likely weaken quickly and significantly on Friday. The winds peak Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, when there is a 40% chance for low-end Gales.

The nearshore waters of the Central Coast will see some of those winds and seas, with a 60% chance of reaching SCA during the peak.

High confidence in the rest of the waters being without a SCA through at least Friday.

Patchy dense fog will affect the near shore waters off the Central Coast this morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).