textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

15/119 PM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry conditions across the region through the weekend along with locally gusty northeast winds at times across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A slow cooling trend will begin Friday, but above normal temperatures are expected at least into early next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

15/214 PM.

Moderate to strong offshore flow is expected to continue until at least Tuesday, however 950mb temperatures begin a fairly significant daily decline on Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday, by which time temperatures are expected to return to more typical levels in the 60s to lower 70s. In the meantime, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the weekend. There may be some brief but locally dense fog near the beaches, but very low confidence on this given offshore gradients still between 4 and 6mb.

The next chance of rain is still later next week. The vast majority of the ensemble solutions are either dry or under a tenth of an inch through next weekend so any rain next week would likely be of little impact.

AVIATION

16/0606Z.

At 0512Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface based inversion with a top at 1500 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA and KSMO with a 20 percent chc of LIFR conds 09Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KLAX with a 30 percent chc of LIFR conds 10Z-16Z.

Moderate Confidence in TAF for KLGB with a 30 percent chc of no restrictions.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 1/2sm FG VV002 conds 10Z-16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 6 knots or less.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of north to northeast winds 13Z-18Z.

MARINE

15/811 PM.

Overall, moderate confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence in the current forecast for winds. Higher confidence in the current forecast for seas.

For the inner waters inside the southern California bight, there is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA level winds between late tonight and Friday morning between Rincon Point and Point Dume, increasing to a 40-50 percent chance Friday night through Saturday morning. Conditions should drop below SCA levels between Saturday afternoon and early next week.

Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into early next week. A long-period west-to-northwest swell over the waters will continue, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.