textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

21/108 PM.

Cooler weather is expected through the weekend with most areas experiencing temperatures within a few degrees of normal by Saturday. Low clouds and fog develop near the coast and push into the valleys overnight for the next several night. Additional cooling is expected next week with most areas between 4 and 8 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

21/205 PM.

A low pressure system will move into the Pac NW Monday and move into the northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. This may result in some increasing northwest winds across the coastal waters as well as the Central Coast and southwest Santa Barbara County. Elsewhere though, likely much of the same with the usual marine layer stratus to start the day across most coast/valley areas and temperatures continuing to cool a 1-2 degrees each day through Tuesday.

There is increasing uncertainty with the upper level pattern following that trough leading to a lower level of confidence for the middle and end of next week. Today's deterministic EC solution is showing a slower and farther south trajectory of the trough, maintaining cooler temperatures for at least another day or two. However, the ensemble solution favors warming trend the latter half of next week and this is supported by the latest GFS.

AVIATION

22/0540Z.

At 0400Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius.

For 06Z TAFs, high confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For all other sites, moderate confidence in 06Z TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. Additionally, flight category could be +/- 1 category overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 06Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight and early Friday morning.

MARINE

21/741 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. However, local SCA level gusts are possible around Point Conception and the Channel Islands during the afternoon/early evening hours. Increasing chances for SCA level winds will return next week. Seas will gradually build possibly nearing SCA levels by mid to late next week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Thereafter, chances for SCA level winds will return; highest during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through this weekend, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. However, local SCA level gusts are possible nearshore around Cabrillo during the afternoon hours. On Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours across the Santa Barbara Channel; 50-60% chance of SCA level winds on Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.