textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/849 AM.

Dry weather will continue at least through next Tuesday. A cooling trend will begin today and continue through the weekend as onshore flow returns. A mild Santa Ana is possible Monday creating breezy northeast winds and warmer temperatures. Then turning cooler Tuesday followed by a chance of rain Wednesday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

28/1205 AM.

The usual end result from the passage of an inside slider is a Santa Ana wind event and Monday will be no exception. All of the usual Santa Ana parameters are on the low side and do not expect this one to generate advisory level winds. In fact, the winds will not be strong enough to chase away the low clouds from the Central Coast and the LA coast. By afternoon, however, it will be sunny everywhere. Max temps will warm across the csts/vlys but the interior will see noticeable cooling as colder air move in from the NE.

Ensemble based forecasts do not show much marine layer cloudiness Tuesday morning along with weak offshore flow. A little skeptical of this forecast and would not be surprised if there will be more morning low clouds. The weaker offshore flow will bring 2 or 3 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys, but the shutting off of the cool air advection across the interior will result in 2 to 3 degrees of warming. Max temps will be close to seasonal norms in the 60s and lower 70s.

Not much mdl agreement for the Wed/Thu forecast as the mdls struggle to handle a retrograding trof (GFS) or cut off low (EC). Mdl consensus (such that it is) gives the best chc of rain to the LA/VTA county area. Cooler and cloudier on Wed, but Thursday's temps really depend on what upper level pattern develops.

AVIATION

28/1741Z.

At 1654Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1900 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight cats may be off by one or two when CIGs are present.

There is a 30% chance of V/LIFR conditions at KPRB from 13Z to 17Z Sat. 15% chance of LIFR CIGs at KSMX from 10Z to 16Z Sat. Lowest confidence in KSBA where arrival of CIGs could be off +/- 4 hours with a 30% CIGs do not arrive or remain intermittent in nature.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z Sat. Arrival of IFR CIGs 005-009 with 2SM to 4SM VSBYs may be off +/- 2.5 hours from current forecast. Moderate confidence in VFR conditions to return after 18Z Sat. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of LIFR conditions from 10Z to 16Z Sat.

MARINE

28/747 AM.

A coastal jet is currently impacting the northern outer waters with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. Although Seas are below SCA levels currently, it is expected to peak late this afternoon into the evening hours with borderline SCA seas possible 30NM from central coast shoreline (PZZ670). These conditions could spread into northwestern portions of PZZ673 at times especially this afternoon and evening. Hazardous conditions for small craft should last through early Saturday morning. Then, conditions will struggle to meet SCA criteria even beyond 30NM from shore through Sunday morning. Chances do increase Sunday afternoon and evening, but still looks unimpressive and borderline. For all Inner Waters, conds are expected to remain below SCA levels thru the weekend.

Low to moderate chances for borderline SCA conditions across the Outer Waters beyond 30NM from shore and low to very low chances elsewhere across coastal waters Monday through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).