textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/916 AM.

Dry but cool weather today. The next storm will bring widespread light to moderate rain and mountain snow Thursday into Friday. Northeast winds and high pressure aloft will push temperatures back to normal this weekend continuing through next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

19/357 AM.

There is a possibility that the Thursday and Friday low pressure system, which does cut off from the prevailing jet stream, lingers in the region on Saturday. Cannot discount additional isolated showers during the day on Saturday, but the trends will certainly be going down. Eventually that low will move on its merry way to the east, and get replaced by a small but good-enough high pressure ridge. With weak offshore flow and pressure gradients, temperatures will climb back to around normal by Sunday and Monday, when highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common. Little change expected through the Thanksgiving holiday. Not seeing any significant signals for rain through at least Black Friday.

AVIATION

19/1150Z.

At 1738Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

There is a 10% chance of -SHRA for KWJF and KPMD through 20/06Z.

High confidence in VFR conds at all sites until 10Z, moderate confidence in TAFs thereafter. A cold front will swing through the region from north to south, beginning at KPRB. -SHRA to +RA possible at times, with heaviest rain expected KSBA and south after 18Z. IFR to MVFR conds likely with rain, but localized LIFR possible with heavier rain. Gustiest winds expected after the period, but lower confidence in wind direction and speed due to dependence on the location of the upper level low moving over the region.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds possible with heavier rain. Lower confidence in wind direction, but moderate confidence in S-E winds 20/13Z - 21/18Z. Strongest winds between 20/21Z and 21/04Z. Moderate confidence in east wind component remaining over 8 knots through the aforementioned time frame.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 15Z, moderate confidence thereafter. Timing of rain may be off +/- 3 hours. Rain may heavier at times, especially after 20/21Z. LIFR to IFR conds possible with heavier rain.

MARINE

19/757 AM.

Seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday morning. Then, another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Wind directions will vary considerably as the storm moves through the region, with 20-30 kt winds common as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

Winds may locally reach 21 kts across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands this afternoon & evening. A few showers are present across the waters off the Orange County coast. There is a 10% chance for thunderstorms late this morning. The strongest cells will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, and even a remote chance for a waterspout.

BEACHES

19/1253 AM.

A 12-16 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast through the weekend, peaking Friday. Peak surf will flirt with the 7ft threshold for west-facing beaches across the Ventura coastline on Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

High Surf Advisories are in effect from Thursday evening through Sunday evening along the Central Coast. Beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest facing beaches, especially from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through Sunday.

Will let future shifts decide if a Surf Advisory is necessary for the Ventura Coastline (40% chance).

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.