textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/115 AM.

Mild conditions will continue through Tuesday. A significant warm up is expected to start on Wednesday, likely lasting well into next week.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

10/247 AM.

Over the weekend the ridge will briefly break down while the offshore flow from the north will weaken and the onshore push to the east will increase. Look for a couple of degrees of cooling each day with max temps still 15-25 degrees above normal with still moderate heat impacts.

Most of the ensemble members show the high pressure system aloft rebuilding again next week and lasting potentially into next weekend, resulting in an unprecedented stretch of moderate to extreme heat across all of southwest California. Highs all week are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with a 20-30% chance of an isolated 100 in the warmer valley areas. It's possible that any daily or monthly records set before this weekend will be broken again next week.

The one saving grace is that overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 50s and 60s, which is still well above normal, but at least there will be several hours overnight relief.

Little to no chance of any rain for the next two weeks.

AVIATION

10/0856Z.

Around 07Z, the marine layer depth was around 1100 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 1700 feet with a temperature around 14 degrees Celsius.

IFR to MVFR conditions are expected at coastal and valley terminals through at 16Z, possibly lingering at coastal terminals into the afternoon hours. There is a moderate to high chance that no clearing will occur at coastal terminals south of Point Conception, highest at Ventura County coastal terminals and KOXR. An early return of IFR to MVFR conditions should be expected for coastal terminals this evening.

KLAX...IFR conditions will improve to the MVFR category as soon as 11Z, or as late as 16Z. VFR conditions should develop as soon as 20Z, but more likely around 22Z. There is a 30 percent chance that KLAX will not clear at all. A return of MVFR conditions should occur as soon as 01Z, or as late as 06Z. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...There is a 60 percent IFR to MVFR conditions developing between 13Z and 16Z, and clearing by 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist through at 05Z Wednesday. IFR to MVFR conditions should move into KBUR between 05Z and 10Z Wednesday.

MARINE

10/156 AM.

Moderately high confidence in the current forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, borderline Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will persist until at least early Thursday morning, especially beyond 30 nautical miles offshore of the Central Coast down past Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Additionally, more widespread advisory conditions are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. There is a high to likely (40-60 percent) chance these gusty winds will extend into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, with the highest likelihood occurring this afternoon and evening. There is a low to moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level northeast to east winds for the nearshore waters each night between Wednesday night and Thursday, and again Thursday night through Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through the period, except for a low to moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level west to northwest winds developing Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Santa Monica Bay and into the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).