textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

19/359 AM.

Some showers will linger today over the southern waters and interior mountains. The next storm will bring widespread light to moderate rain and mountains snow Thursday into Friday. Cool conditions will persist through Friday. Northeast winds and high pressure aloft will push temperatures back to normal this weekend continuing through next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

19/357 AM.

There is a possibility that the Thursday and Friday low pressure system, which does cut off from the prevailing jet stream, lingers in the region on Saturday. Cannot discount additional isolated showers during the day on Saturday, but the trends will certainly be going down. Eventually that low will move on its merry way to the east, and get replaced by a small but good-enough high pressure ridge. With weak offshore flow and pressure gradients, temperatures will climb back to around normal by Sunday and Monday, when highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be common. Little change expected through the Thanksgiving holiday. Not seeing any significant signals for rain through at least Black Friday.

AVIATION

19/1150Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

There is a 10-20% chance of -SHRA on Wednesday for KWJF KPMD. 30% chance of -SHRA at KPRB, KSBP after 09Z Thursday.

LIFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue at KPRB through 16Z Wed (+/- 1 hour).

Chances for LIFR conditions through 16Z Wed: KOXR/KCMA (15%), KBUR/KVNY/KWJF (20%).

Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions with light winds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Good confidence in VFR conditions with east wind component remaining under 8 knots through 12Z Thursday. Then, 30% chance of reaching 8 knots thru end of forecast period. In addition, MVFR CIGs 020-030 with -DZ or even -SHRA possible during this timeframe.

KBUR...There is a 20% chance of LIFR FG through 16Z Wednesday. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions and lighter than usual winds.

MARINE

19/1257 AM.

Seas should continue to decrease and remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday morning. Then, another storm system will bring elevated seas up to 14 feet across the outer waters and up to 6 feet for the inner water south of Point Conception as early as Thursday afternoon. Seas will improve some but remain at or near Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through much of the weekend across the Outer Waters. Wind directions will vary considerably as the storm moves through the region, with 20-30 kt winds common as early as Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

Winds may locally reach 21 kts across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the Channel Islands this afternoon & evening. A few showers with a 5% chance of a thunderstorm is expected across PZZ655 through this morning. The strongest cells will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, and even a remote chance for a waterspout.

BEACHES

19/1253 AM.

A 12-16 second 12-14 foot west-northwest swell will enter the region Thursday evening, increasing surf heights to 12-16 feet across northwest and west facing beach along the Central Coast through the weekend, peaking Friday. Peak surf will flirt with the 7ft threshold for west-facing beaches across the Ventura coastline on Friday, and possibly through the weekend.

High Surf Advisories are in effect from Thursday evening through Sunday evening along the Central Coast. Beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest facing beaches, especially from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through Sunday.

Will let future shifts decide if a Surf Advisory is necessary for the Ventura Coastline (40% chance).

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM Thursday to 9 PM PST Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.