textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/954 AM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail this week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. A late season rain is possible early next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

28/957 AM.

Weak ridging with ~575 dam hgts will dominate the weather Saturday. There will be moderate onshore flow. The onshore flow could lead to some night through morning low clouds and fog across the csts and lower vlys and b. Limit the amount of warming created by the ridge esp along the csts. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming on Friday with little change on Saturday. Max temps everywhere, save for the beaches, will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

There is much better agreement this morning between the mdls (deterministic, AI and ensemble) for the Sunday and early next week forecast.

A very large (for May) 558 dam upper low will move south about 100 miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday. SW flow will set up over the area. It will be dry, but there will be plenty of mid and high clouds and likely a grip of morning low clouds. Max temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees.

The low will move to the east starting Sunday night. It will bring a chance of rain to the area Monday and/or Tuesday. Right now amounts do not look like they will be too great. Although one caveat is that if the storm moves directly overhead (about a 20 percent chance) pockets of heavier showers or even a few thunderstorms would become possible. Max temps will nose dive 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees and will end up only in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts/vlys or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION

28/2105Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall high confidence in the TAFs, except moderate confidence in and KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. For KPRB, KSMX, KSBP, and KSMO there is a 30% chance of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 29/09Z then lower confidence with timing of low cloud arrival. There is a 30 percent of no low clouds. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

28/151 PM.

Moderate confidence in low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds from Point Sal to San Nicolas Island this afternoon and tonight. Moderate to high confidence in SCA winds expanding to the nearshore and outer waters off the Central Coast Wednesday and Thursday and possibly into Friday. Moderate confidence that conds will remain near but below SCA levels over the weekend.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible each afternoon and evening today (40-50% chance) and Wednesday (30-40% chance) over the western portion of the channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds Thursday afternoon and night, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.

Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty (but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.

High confidence in swell remaining rather small through Thursday, but choppy seas will increase with the winds each afternoon and night. Thursday night into the week seas will build, potentially reaching 10 feet over the northern outer waters by Saturday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).