textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

01/156 AM.

Warmer temperatures are expected today as offshore flow returns with areas of gusty Santa Ana winds. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday before Santa Ana winds return Thursday with warmer temperatures into early next week.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

01/250 AM.

Temperatures will be on the upswing Friday and through next weekend as a 590dam high noses into the eastern Pacific. The high will expand into California early next week and steer storms well east of the western US. This will break the cycle cold storms dropping into the Great Basin and instead push temperatures to at least 3-6 degrees above normal. Looking a little farther ahead into the following week (Dec 7-13) most of the models maintain the ridge over the eastern Pacific with a likely continuation of the same warm/dry pattern through the first half of the month.

AVIATION

30/2335Z.

At 2330Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

High confidence in TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF)

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by +/- 3 hrs and flight categories by one or two. There is a 30% chance for LIFR conditions at KPRB from 10Z to 16Z Mon. High uncertainty in development of LIFR CIGs at KSBP and KSMX and how long they will last if realized. With offshore wind push on Monday morning, expecting low clouds to dissipate in most coastal areas between 12z-14z, and possibly earlier.

LLWS and turbulence is possible over and near mountainous terrain across Ventura and LA Counties after 08Z Monday.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGs 015 at times are likely 04Z-12Z Monday. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30 percent chance that conditions remain VFR through the period.

MARINE

01/216 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA conditions beyond 30 NM from shore. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Friday and Saturday with a chance of SCA conds on Sunday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. However, nearshore from Cayucos to Morro bay offshore wind gusts could approach SCA levels at times.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the nearshore waters from Ventura to west of Santa Monica and potentially out past Anacapa Island, SCA level offshore winds are expected this morning into Tuesday morning. However, there will likely be a brief lull in winds for a few hours late this afternoon. There is a 30% chance of another round of offshore winds for this same area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to generally remain below SCA levels through Friday.

BEACHES

01/230 AM.

A long period west-northwest swell will bring elevated surf conditions to Southwest California Tuesday through Thursday morning. High Surf Advisories have been issued across the Central Coast with peak surf heights of 10 feet. Very High Tides of 7 to 7.7 (MLLW) are expected across all beaches.

The combination of the long period swell and high tides could result in beach erosion with isolated minor coastal flooding, especially for west- northwest facing beaches from 4 AM to 11 AM each day.

Beach hazard statements are expected to be issued for all beaches south of Point Conception with future updates, with a 40% chance that a High Surf Advisory will be needed for the Ventura coast. In addition, coastal flooding potential is expected to peak on Wednesday (due to the surf peaking) giving the highest risk of coastal flooding along the Ventura coastline (30% chance).

Tides will be highest Thursday and Friday. With the large tides and another round of swell, beach hazard statements could be extended into the weekend. Please stay tuned to the National Weather Service for future updates as we continue to monitor the situation.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 88-354-355-358-369-371-372-374. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for zone 340. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 362. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 375-379. (See LAXNPWLOX). Freeze Watch remains in effect from late tonight through Tuesday morning for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this morning for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).