textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/1218 AM.

Rain and high elevation snow will affect the area today and tonight as a storm moves slowly over the region. The shower activity will diminish Monday. Drier weather is expected Tuesday through late in the week, with cold nights for many areas Wednesday night through Friday.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

04/1229 AM.

Both the EC and GFS as well as their ensembles are rain free for the xtnd period. Both show dry NW flow over the region. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy through the period depending on home much mid and high clouds are embedded in the NW flow. Hgts will start out on the coolish side between 562 dam and 564 dam. The hgts will slowly rise through the period. High pressure in the Great Basin will bring offshore flow from both the N and E through the period peaking in the morning between 4 and 5 mb. There is not much upper level wind support so do not expect any advisory level gusts, but there will be canyon winds every morning. Max temps will slowly warm through the period and by Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s across most of the csts and vlys. Despite the warming trend max temps will be blo normal all 4 days. The dry air and mostly clear skies will bring cooler than normal low temps to areas away from the offshore winds. The interior vlys and desert will see min temps a few degrees either side of freezing. The Central Coast will have plenty of lows in the mid to upper 30s. The csts/vlys south of Pt Conception will end up mostly in the 40s with some upper 30s in the cooler vlys.

AVIATION

04/1123Z.

At 1012Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer to 7500 feet.

Low confidence in all TAFs as cig and vis will change frequently through the period. LIFR to low VFR are all possible with MVFR cigs BKN015-025 most likely.

Light rain is possible anywhere into the early morning with more organized and heavier rain becoming likely mid morning for TAFs north of Pt Conception and late morning or early afternoon for TAFs south of Pt Concpetion. In the afternoon...there is a 20 percent chc of a TSTM in the afternoon north of Pt Conception and a 10 percent chc for TAFs south of Pt Concpetion.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs/Vis will vary frequently through the period. BKN conds between 015 and 025 are most likely but there are equal 20 percent chcs of BKN008 or BKN035. Also there is a 10 percent chc of BKN004-008 conds through 18Z. There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM 20Z-04Z. Fair confidence that any east wind component will be under 8kt, although gusts may reach that threshold in the late morning to early afternoon at times.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs/Vis will vary frequently through the period. BKN conds between 010 and 020 are most likely but there are equal 15 percent chcs of BKN008 or BKN035. Also there is a 10 percent chc of BKN004 conds 07Z-18Z. There is a 10 percent chc of a TSTM 20Z-04Z.

MARINE

04/731 AM.

Another frontal system is approaching from the northwest and will cross the waters today, moving from northwest to southeast. This will bring periods of rain, low visibility, gusty southerly winds, and a slight risk of thunderstorms and waterspouts. Mariners should consider staying in safe harbor through tonight.

Winds will increase into the morning hours and through this afternoon, resulting in southerly winds of 20-30 knots across much of the Outer Waters along with the nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Localized Gale Force gusts to 35 knots may occur along the front under heavier cells this afternoon in the late evening hours. Most likely during the afternoon north of Point Conception, and during the evening south of Pt Conception.

Diminishing winds expected tonight, but seas are expected to remain at SCA levels across Outer waters and along Central Coast through early Monday morning. Moderate chance for another round of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level southerly winds in similar areas Monday afternoon through Tuesday. After a brief lull in winds, NW winds are likely to reach 20-30 knots Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday, focused across the Outer Waters especially south of Point Conception (with a low chance for GALE force winds).

In addition to the hazardous marine conditions, very large astronomical tides will affect the area each morning through Monday. See CFWLOX for further details on the Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory, and Beach Hazardous Statement.

BEACHES

04/326 AM.

Abnormally large high tides between 7.0 and 7.5 feet MLLW will occur each morning through Monday, roughly between 8 am and 11 am. A mixture of south wind swells and a longer period west swell will combine with these tides to elevate the risk of coastal flooding. Similar events in the past suggest that any impacts will be minor, but folks should plan for some shallow flooding of normally dry beach areas (including bike paths and walkways) as well as vulnerable harbor areas. Rain is also expected at this time, which will enhance the risk for isolated impactful flood due to the combination of outflow from streams and storm drains. This is especially the case for areas like Naples Island. Elevated surf and strong currents are also expected through Monday.

Refer to CFWLOX for details regarding the newly issued Coastal Flood Advisory in effect beginning this morning for the Central Coast and Ventura County, as well as the High Surf Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).