textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

02/1137 AM.

Another storm system arrive Saturday bringing rain and high elevation snow through Sunday along with some gusty winds at times. Broader troughing over the West will keep a cooler weather pattern in place through next week with cool days and cold nights.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

02/1237 PM.

There are a few model solutions that indicate some additional rain on Wednesday followed by some light precip Thursday on north facing slopes with snow levels possibly as low as 3000 feet. Regardless, temperatures are expected to be well below normal next week with possible frost and freeze issues overnight in the colder areas.

Beyond that the ensembles are in good agreement showing a prolonged period of dry weather through the middle of the month.

AVIATION

02/1604Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Isolated but light showers could form anywhere through this evening - low confidence on timing and coverage. The next storm system which will bring steady moderate rain later tonight and/or Saturday - moderate confidence in timing (+/- 4 hours) and ceilings (+/- 1 flight category).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday). Moderate confidence that winds will stay either east, southeast, or south (with little to no west component) through 03Z Monday. Low confidence on wind speed.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in flight category forecast with periods of -RA and MVFR-VFR common. Brief IFR is possible during peak rain of rain (20Z Saturday to 08Z Sunday).

MARINE

02/1231 PM.

A storm system will affect the region this afternoon through the weekend, bringing periods of rain, low visibility, gusty south winds, and a remote risk of strong thunderstorms and waterspouts. Although there will be breaks in the hazardous conditions, mariners should consider staying in safe harbor through at least the weekend.

High confidence in south to southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots and steep seas from San Miguel Island and northward through the Central Coast forming later today and lasting into early Saturday. Gale Warnings are in effect, and will be replace with a Small Craft Advisory on Saturday after the winds peak. High confidence in southeast wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots for the rest of the waters forming by tonight and lasting into Thursday. Another round of south winds, about 5 knots weaker, will push through the area on Sunday.

Another storm system will likely affect the waters Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday, but low confidence on the details.

Very large tides will affect the area each morning through Monday. Read BEACHES section below for more information.

BEACHES

02/1214 PM.

Abnormally large high tides between 7.0 and 7.5 feet MLLW will occur each morning through Sunday, roughly between 8 am and 11 am. A mixture of south wind swells and a longer period west swell will combine with these tides to elevate the risk of coastal flooding. Similar events in the past suggest that any impacts will be minor, but folks should plan for some shallow flooding of normally dry beach areas (including bike paths and walkways) as well as vulnerable harbor areas. Rain is also expected at this time, which will enhance the risk for isolated impactful flood due to the combination of outflow from streams and storm drains. This is especially the case for areas like Naples Island.

Elevated surf and strong currents are also expected through Monday. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday for the Central Coast and Ventura Coast, but will keep the Beach Hazards Statement going today and consider an upgrade tomorrow.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday afternoon for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST Saturday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).