textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/138 PM.

Afternoon high temperatures will climb well above early June normals today. Highs will remain warm through Friday, except for a substantial cool down Thursday along the Central Coast. A subtle cooling trend is likely this weekend into early next week. Marine layer stratus and fog will return to most beaches Thursday, then will become more widespread with increasing inland extent Friday through the weekend.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

10/130 PM.

Conditions will be mostly unvarying through the weekend and into early next week. Coastal areas will see a subtle cooling trend, while interior areas will remain warm in the 90s thanks to continued ridging. Onshore flow will maintain areas of marine layer stratus and fog each morning. Like Friday, there is a small (5 percent) chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains Saturday afternoon through evening.

AVIATION

11/0009Z.

At 2336Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1100 ft deep. The inversion top was at 2900 ft with a maximum temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, and KSMX. There is a 20-50% chance for low clouds below 1000 feet and vsbys in BR/FG at each site after 10Z, highest KSMX. If clouds arrive, VLIFR to LIFR conds are most likely min flight cat due to shallow marine layer.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, with high confidence in low clouds returning tonight (except moderate KBUR/KVNY). Lower confidence in min flight cat, but IFR to MVFR most likely. Arrival times may be off +/- 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in low clouds returning +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 30% chance OVC007-009. Vsbys likely 6SM or higher, but there is a 25-30% chance for 5SM or lower after 10Z. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 8 kt.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in low clouds arriving +/- 2 hours from forecast. Lower confidence in cig heights, with a 20% chance of OVC004 cigs and vsbys 5SM.

MARINE

10/202 PM.

Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas over the waters along the Central Coast and out 60 NM from shore (and beyond) through at least tonight, with 10 foot seas beyond 30 NM from shore possibly lingering into Thursday morning. Southerly winds 10-20 knots are likely late Wednesday south of Point Conception, expanding north through Thursday. Then conditions are expected to be relatively mild through early next week for much of the coastal waters.

However, west to northwest wind gusts 15-20 knots (locally 25 knots) will be common each afternoon through early evening Friday through at least early next week across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception (including the Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro Channel, and Santa Monica Bay).

BEACHES

10/201 PM.

The long period southerly swell responsible for large and hazardous surf will continue into Thursday, although slightly lower wave heights and periods are expected tomorrow. A relative lull between swells is expected over the weekend, then another long period southerly swell from the Souhtern Hemisphere is forecast to arrive early next week, from a slightly more southwest direction (roughly 220 degrees). Additionally, large tides near 7.5 feet are predicted for Saturday through Tuesday. Although next weeks southerly swell appears to have smaller significant eave heights, the combination of the longer period swell and the high tides may lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding for south exposed coasts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening for zones 341-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).