textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

28/1153 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail this week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Late season rain is possible early next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

29/313 AM.

On Saturday, ridging will continue in the morning but will push off to the east in the afternoon. The onshore flow will continue and this should enable the marine layer stratus to continue across most cst and some lower vlys. The lower hgts due to the movement of the upper high and moderate onshore flow will cool SLO and most of SBA county. VTA and LA county will not be affected as much and will warm an additional 1 to 3 degrees making Saturday the warmest of the next 7 for those two counties (vly highs in the lower to mid 80s).

There continues to be decent agreement between the mdls (deterministic, AI and ensemble) for the Sunday and early next week forecast.

A very large (for May) 557 dam upper low will move south about 100 miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday. SW flow will set up over the area. It will be dry, but there will be plenty of mid and high clouds and likely a whole host of morning low clouds. Max temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees.

The low will move to the south and east starting Sunday night. It will track through SLO county and into Kern County Monday night through Tuesday morning. There is not that much moisuture or dynamics with this system and not many of the enseble members bring rain to the area. Right now there is no more than a 20 percent chc of rain for any given 6 hour period Monday through Tuesday. The upper low does pass directly over SLO county and the nrn mtns so it is not out of the question that some weak convection could develop. Overall even if some rain does fall it does not look to be much. Max temps on Monday will nose dive 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees and will end up only in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the csts/vlys or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal. Max temps will likelu

AVIATION

29/1013Z.

At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Overall high confidence in the TAFs except for a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs at KLAX and KLGB 13Z-17Z.

KLAX...Fairly high confidence in TAF with only a 15 percent chc of BKN008 conds 13Z-17Z. Better confidence in low clouds after 30/08Z but arrival timing could be anytime between 08Z and 13Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

29/219 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds across the outer waters through late tonight, and possibly into Friday, especially over the northern outer waters. Moderate confidence that conds will then remain near but below SCA levels through Saturday, with winds likely decreasing further on Sunday. Along the Central Coast, SCA winds are likely each afternoon and evening period through Thursday, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible this afternoon and evening (30-40% chance) over the western portion of the channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds Thursday afternoon and night, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.

Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty (but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.

High confidence in swell remaining rather small through Thursday, but choppy seas will increase with the winds each afternoon and night. Thursday night into the week seas will build, potentially reaching 10 feet over the northern outer waters by Saturday.

CC

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).