textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/355 PM.

Moderate rain and a chance of thunderstorms will sweep through the area tonight into Sunday morning. Scattered shower activity is then possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Dry and warmer weather is expected the rest of next week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

11/207 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to be on the same, broad, synoptic page. Weak upper level trough will persist over the area on Wednesday, then an inside slider will drop into the Great Basin Thursday/Friday.

Forecast-wise, the extended will be expected to remain rather benign. Mostly clear/partly cloudy and dry conditions are expected through the period. There could be some return of coastal stratus/fog later in the extended period, but not confident enough to include in the official forecast. On Thursday/Friday, there will likely be an increase in northerly across the area as the inside slider dives into the Great Basin. At this time, ensembles are indicating a 50-70% chance of advisory-level northerly winds in the usual spots (I-5 Corridor and the Santa Barbara county mountains). As for temperatures, will expect a warming trend through the period with temperatures peaking on Saturday (about 4-8 degrees above normal).

AVIATION

11/2349Z.

At 2320Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in the TAFs. A cold front will affect all terminals tonight into Sun morning. Low confidence in cig/vis fcst when the rain is occuring. Winds will be southerly ahead of the front and westerly after. There is a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms, highest for northern airfields, tonight into Sun morning. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds and brief lower vsbys in heavy rain.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain is expected between 11Z-19Z and cig/vis may be as low at 1/2SM-2SM at times during rain. Winds will shift rapidly from southerly to westerly as the front passes. There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms from 14Z Sun to 00Z Mon. No significant east wind component expected except during thunderstorms.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain is expected between 10Z-18Z and cig/vis may be as low at 1/2SM-2SM at times during rain. Winds will shift rapidly from southerly to westerly as the front passes. There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms from 15Z-18Z Sun, and a 15% chance through 00Z Mon.

MARINE

11/817 PM.

A strong storm system will affect the southwestern CA coastal waters tonight into Sunday. This system will sweep a cold front across the waters, bringing Small Craft level southerly winds, showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the area. Potential hazards include: heavy downpours, dangerous cloud to ocean lightning, small hail, and erratic gusty winds. Boaters, especially those with small vessels, should avoid these conditions.

Seas will build on Sunday to 8-10 feet across the central and northern Outer Waters. Additionally, Small Craft level west to northwest winds are likely for all the waters Monday afternoon and night. Then northwest SCA winds are possible for much of the time across the outer waters Tuesday through Thursday night, with a 20% chance of Gale Force winds at times Thursday night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM PDT Monday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for zones 378>380. (See LAXWSWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 PM PDT Sunday for zones 381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).