textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

30/1253 AM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail the rest of the week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of the area at times. Light rain showers are possible late Sunday into Monday.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

30/1253 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement. Main feature of note will be another cutoff low. Based on latest forecast, this low will drop south, off the Central Coast on Sunday, then will move inland Monday/Tuesday over the area, but will move to northern Baja on Wednesday.

As with any cutoff low in Spring, confidence in the forecast is only moderate at best. At this time, the low looks to be rather moisture-starved, so rainfall, if any, is not expected to be significant. Based on current guidance, POPs for Sunday night and Monday are going to be in the 10-20% range with the highest chances across northern San Luis Obispo county. Any rainfall that develop looks to be very light, under 0.10 inches, with the "best" chances of measurable rain over northern San Luis Obispo county. For Monday night/Tuesday, any threat of rain will shift to interior sections as low moves south and east, but even then, POPs are expected to be under 15%. Of course with any cutoff low, the forecast could change dramatically over the coming days.

Otherwise, no significant concerns are anticipated. Through Monday, skies will waver between partly cloudy and mostly cloudy due to the cutoff low as well as potentially more extensive marine layer stratus/fog. On Tuesday/Wednesday, mostly clear conditions are likely as low moves out of the area. As for temperatures, expect a noticeable cooling for all areas on Sunday with a degree or two of additional cooling on Monday. However for Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will rebound as the low moves out of the area.

AVIATION

30/1129Z.

At 1100Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius.

For the 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD. For coastal sites, moderate confidence in TAFs as timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. For KBUR and KVNY, there is a 30% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 12Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs 12Z-16Z.

MARINE

30/1254 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue through tonight. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds are expected this afternoon and evening. For Friday through Monday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From late this afternoon through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for the southern Inner Waters through Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).