textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

31/247 AM.

Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)

31/1250 PM.

For the extended period, models continue to exhibit broad synoptic agreement through the period. Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the area Wednesday/Thursday then an upper level ridge builds in from the west on Friday/Saturday. At the surface, weak diurnal flow will likely prevail although the ECMWF indicates a bit of weak offshore flow in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

Overall, the above synoptic pattern will result in benign weather for Southwestern California. Dry conditions will prevail through the period. High temperatures will remain relatively persistent on Wednesday/Thursday with some warming expected on Friday and Saturday. There may be some gusty offshore winds through the period, but nothing that looks to be near advisory levels.

AVIATION

31/1501Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Occasional -SHRA with MVFR-VFR ceilings and visibility at most airports through 24Z, becoming more persistent with -RA tonight. Isolated and brief IFR conditions are possible tonight, especially from KSBA through KLGB. Improvement likely 12-18Z Sunday. Wind wind gusts of 20-30 knots likely at most coastal sites starting Sunday 21Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR ceilings common through 02Z, with occasional -MVFR SHRA possible. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with possible brief IFR RA under and heavier cells. Improvement likely by 15-18Z. East winds likely each morning with a chance of reaching 8-10 knots through 17Z today (20%) and 06-15Z Sunday (30%). West winds 20-30 knots likely starting 21Z Sunday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR ceilings common through 02Z, with occasional -MVFR SHRA possible. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with occasional IFR RA under and heavier cells. Improvement likely by 15-18Z.

MARINE

31/1144 AM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through this evening, except for a low chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers.

High confidence in post-frontal SCA-level W-NW winds and choppy seas are likely to form later tonight from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, then spread to most coastal waters on Sunday including the entire Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Bay. The winds turn to NE on Monday and will likely stay below SCA-levels. NE winds under SCA- levels likely to follow on Monday. There is a chance for another round of post-frontal winds on Tuesday, but likely a step below in strength compared to Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).