textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

10/225 PM.

A significant and long lasting heat wave is expected Thursday well into next week with MODERATE to HIGH heat impacts likely.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

10/219 PM.

Over the weekend the ridge will briefly break down while the offshore flow from the north will weaken and the onshore push to the east will increase. Look for a couple of degrees of cooling each day with max temps still 15-25 degrees above normal with still moderate heat impacts.

Most of the ensemble members show the high pressure system aloft rebuilding again next week and lasting potentially into next weekend, resulting in an unprecedented stretch of moderate to extreme heat for this time of year across all of southwest California. Highs all week are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with a 20-30% chance of an isolated 100 in the warmer valley areas. It's possible that any daily or monthly records set before this weekend will be broken again next week.

The one saving grace is that overnight lows are expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and 60s, which is still well above normal, but at least there will be several hours overnight relief.

Little to no chance of any rain for the next two weeks.

AVIATION

11/0230Z.

At 2343Z, the marine layer was around 2400 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 6800 feet with a temperature around 11 degrees Celsius.

Expecting a return of IFR to MVFR conditions for southern coastal terminals tonight. Moderate confidence in timing of cigs, and high confidence in winds.

KLAX...A return of MVFR conditions should occur as late as 06Z, with lower confidence in cig arrival and clearing times. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...IFR to MVFR conditions should arrive between 08Z and 11Z Wednesday. Moderate confidence in cigs with early clearing time expected.

MARINE

10/203 PM.

Moderately high confidence in the current forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, borderline Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will persist until at least early Thursday morning, especially beyond 30 nautical miles offshore of the Central Coast down past Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Additionally, more widespread advisory conditions are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. There is a high to likely (40-60 percent) chance these gusty winds will extend into the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, with the highest likelihood occurring this afternoon and evening. There is a low to moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level northeast to east winds for the nearshore waters each night between Wednesday and Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through the period, except for a low to moderate (20-30 percent) chance of SCA level west to northwest winds developing Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Santa Monica Bay and into the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel.

Dense fog may become fairly widespread Wednesay night into Thursday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).