textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/258 AM.

A drying trend will continue to establish today, but a cold air mass will grip the area today. After a chilly start to the day on Saturday, a warming trend will take shape through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal into Saturday but then warm above normal on Sunday. Chances for rain next week continue to fade with an upper-level trough likely taking a track into northern California.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

20/207 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic agreement. At upper levels, ridge weakens a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday, but will rebound on Thursday and Friday. Near the surface, weak onshore flow will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday, but offshore flow will begin to return Thursday and Friday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to shift a weak atmospheric river further northward. So, the rain chances for the area are very limited. At this time, there is a chance for light rain across San Luis Obispo county (amounts around 0.10 inches or less), but dry conditions are likely elsewhere. This matches up well with the latest ensembles which only have a few members indicating any measurable rain south of Point Conception. With the weak onshore flow and slight weakening of the upper ridge, temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler across most areas.

For Thursday and Friday, dry conditions are expected. Temperatures will gradually warm, due to the building ridge and weak offshore flow. There will be some offshore winds, but they look to be on the weak side.

AVIATION

21/0255Z.

At 0011Z at KLAX, no inversion and no marine layer were present.

High confidence in TAFs with VFR conditions and light winds through the period. 10% chance for VLIFR conds at KPRB after 10Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE

20/1242 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas are expected through this evening. For Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level southerly winds, highest across PZZ670. Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels Sunday and Monday, then NW winds are expected to increase Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).