textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

05/441 PM.

Light offshore winds will weaken through tonight. Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a low chance of morning coastal low clouds and fog. A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday and continue into much of the week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

05/152 PM.

The aforementioned ridge will park itself just off the West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday before moving east where the apex of the ridge will be over SoCal Thursday night into Friday. The mean LREF 500 mb heights vary between 585-589 dam during this time, which is right around the 95th percentile of climatology. For reference, the average December 500 mb height is 571 dam.

Again, offshore flow from the north and east will be mainstays this week, peaking Tuesday-Thursday morning, but there have been some fluctuations in magnitude of the LAX-DAG and LAX-BFL gradients over the last couple days, especially regarding timing. The most favored outcome in terms of wind speeds is somewhere in the 15-25 mph range, with gusts between 25-35 mph and isolated 40 mph wind gusts across some of the favored mountain and foothill areas.

It does appear that the offshore components will continue during the daytime and overnight hours, which will help elevated max and min temperatures further. Both max and min temperatures have been nudged to the NBM 75th percentile, however, these still may be slightly underdone, especially the min temperatures which will be impacted very much so by the overnight offshore flow. All four counties are in play for the offshore flow during the entire week.

Tuesday-Thursday are looking like the warmest days of this warm spell, although Friday is now looking quite warmer than it appeared yesterday, and there will be very little fluctuations in high temps during this period. There is some discrepancy between the EC and GFS operational runs, as the GFS begins to cool the region Thursday and Friday. However, most ensemble members favor the EC at this point, hence why temperatures were nudged up. High temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above normal during this period, with isolated warmest mountain areas approaching 25 degrees above normal.

AVIATION

06/0040Z.

At 2353Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. A surface based inversion top was at 1200 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

There is a 30% chance of LIFR FG at KPRB between 10Z-16Z Sat. The chance of lowered categories elsewhere is 10% or less.

KLAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions through at least Saturday, except for a 10% chance of LIFR FG Saturday 12Z-16Z. East winds are likely between 08Z to 18Z, but the chance of exceeding 8 knots is less than 10%.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions through at least Saturday.

MARINE

05/842 PM.

Moderate confidence in low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) NW winds for the Central Coast waters beyond 20 miles from shore and southward to the Channel Islands tonight through much of the forecast period. NE winds near 20 knots likely each night and early morning into next week nearshore from Port San Luis and northward. Otherwise, moderate confidence in unusually light winds and small seas across the remainder of the waters through at least this weekend. N-NE winds likely to increase Monday and Tuesday of next week from Ventura through Santa Monica, with a 40% chance of reaching SCA.

There is a chance of dense fog forming over the coastal waters tonight or sometime this weekend, with the highest chances south of Point Conception. Confidence is low on timing and coverage.

Abnormally high tides will lower each day through next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).