textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/221 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal. Gusty Santa Ana winds will impact the region at times Tuesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

23/221 PM.

Thanksgiving will begin with Santa Ana winds continuing into the early afternoon hours, albeit a skosh weaker than Wednesdays peak, peaking in the 20-30 mph range and tapering off by Turkey time. Santa Lucia winds will continue across the aforementioned mountain areas through Friday. As far as high temperatures go, highs will decrease slightly, but most folks across Southwest California will experience highs in the 70s and clear skies.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the forecast for next weekend as a potential storm system may arrive as early as Saturday. While there is still considerable disagreement amongst the GFS and the EC/ECAIFS plus their ensembles, the EC and the ECAIFS have both trended the upper level trough considerably further to the southwest, resulting in a majority of their ensemble members showing at least some precipitation at some point next weekend. At this point, potential rain totals look quite low due to low PWATs as the upper level trough meandering across the Western CONUS before dropping southwest. On the other hand, the GFS and its ensembles remain much drier, which would certainly result in a dry Santa Ana pattern.

AVIATION

23/1958Z.

At 1930Z at KLAX, the marine layer inversion was 1200 feet. with a top of the inversion at 2500 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in TAF forecasts. Through this afternoon, high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites. For tonight, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD, but only moderate confidence in coastal/valley sites as there are increasing probabilities of marine layer low clouds and fog returning.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through early this evening, high confidence in VFR conditions. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG and VSBY restrictions, but low confidence in timing (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts) and flight category (categories could range from IFR to VLIFR). Easts wind component of 5-7 knots still on track to continue through at least 21z before shifting to sea breeze.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions developing 12Z-16Z.

MARINE

23/219 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through Monday afternoon. From Monday night through Thursday, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, there is a 60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica. On Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all of the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).