textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/919 AM.

A storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the area today into Saturday morning, heaviest tonight into Friday morning in Los Angeles County. Gusty east winds are expected Friday in some areas. High pressure will push temperatures back to normal this weekend which will continue through the holiday week.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)

20/350 AM.

While temperatures might cool a little on Sunday as the east winds turn off and return to a more normal onshore pattern, temperatures will remain around normal through next week (including Thanksgiving). The marine layer with low clouds and fog should also make a return, but might be limited by Wednesday as north winds start to form. A rain-free period through at least Black Friday looks almost certain. There are growing signals however for another storm sometime in the Saturday through Tuesday time range (Nov 29-Dec 2).

AVIATION

20/1801Z.

At 1739Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer to 5500 feet, with an inversion to 8000 feet and a temperature of 1 degree Celsius.

A storm system will bring widespread rain on Thursday with at least MVFR categories and possible localized IFR conditions during the heaviest rain, with the highest chance of that over LA and Ventura Counties 20-03Z. LLWS 5-15 knots likely at most airports. 10-20% chance of thunderstorms 20/23Z-21/18Z, highest for Ventura County and Los Angeles County. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA followed by consistent rain will continue into late tonight. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with any heavy rain, best chances between 00Z-08Z. MVFR and VFR cigs are most likely outside of heaviest rain. 20% chance of TSTM 00Z-16Z. Any TSTM will likely produce very gusty and erratic winds. Winds will remain east-southeast through the period. There is a 30% chance for east winds to reach 15-20 kts as soon as 04Z, strongest winds 07Z-end of period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. -SHRA followed by consistent rain will continue into late tonight. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with any heavy rain, best chances between 23Z-07Z. MVFR and VFR cigs are most likely outside of heaviest rain. 10% chance of TSTM 23Z-12Z. Any TSTM will likely produce very gusty and erratic winds. Gusty SE winds will e common

MARINE

20/820 AM.

A storm system will move south along the California Coast, bringing gusty winds, a large west- northwest swell, rain, and potential thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. The highest rain and thunderstorm chances exists from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Any thunderstorm can produce erratic wind shifts, heavy rain, lightning, and even waterspouts. Wind directions will vary considerably through the course of the storm. This will result in rough, confused seas. Due to lack of confidence in exact location of storm's core, Gale Force winds are possible virtually anywhere across the coastal waters. However, more likely south and west of Point Conception.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will be common across the coastal waters through much of the weekend. Seas will rapidly increase to upwards of 15 feet across the Outer Waters, 10 feet for the nearshore Central Coast Waters, and 5 to 8 feet inside the Southern California Bight through this evening. 10-20 knots southerly winds are expected ahead of cold frontal passage, and NW winds 20-30 knots expected in the wake of the front.

High resolution models indicate that the low will remain far enough north impacting the inner waters south of Point Conception with an extended period of SCA conditions and thunderstorm chances into at least Friday afternoon.

On the heels of the system moving through, a moderate Santa Ana Wind event will develop. Northeast winds 20-30 knots will be common nearshore from Ventura to Malibu Friday morning through Saturday evening. There is a moderate chance these winds reach the Channel Islands across the Santa Barbara Channel. Northeast to southeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts to 25 kt at times are likely nearshore from the Palos Verdes Peninsula south through Orange County. Models have been trending down slightly, so it is unlikely at this point for winds of that magnitude to reach Catalina Island.

Confidence remains low in the forecast for winds, especially south of Point Conception, as the direction and magnitude of winds is highly dependent on the track of the upper level low pressure system. It is best to alter any plans and remain in safe harbor until conditions improve.

BEACHES

20/404 AM.

High Surf Advisories are now in effect from Today through Sunday night along the Central Coast and Ventura County. There is a 30% chance for High Surf Advisories to be issued for the Los Angeles County coasts during that timeframe.

Highly variable winds will create rough surf conditions across all coasts. In addition, there is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night at all beaches. Thunderstorms can produce lightning, heavy downpours, gusty- erratic winds, and even waterspouts.

Beach erosion with isolated, minor coastal flooding is possible for west-northwest facing beaches, especially during peak high tide from 8 AM to 1 PM from Friday through Sunday, with highest risk along the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PST Friday for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Friday for zones 379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).