textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

23/1147 PM.

A dry pattern is expected for the next several days except for possible drizzle this morning. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday before a warming trend begins Monday. Breezy Santa Ana winds will return Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will climb to 4 to 8 degrees above normal for the latter half of next week.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)

24/301 AM.

A ridge will be over the state on Tuesday with 574 dam hgts. There will also be 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow which will produce a light Santa Ana. At this time it does not look like there will be any advisory level winds. There will be a few degrees of warming and most cst/vly temps will end up in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is about 3 degrees over normal.

Low confidence remains for the rest of the xtnd forecast as the mdls are struggling to resolve some energy coming in from the NW. The EC is much more energetic and brings a full on cut off low to the west of the area. Most of the rest of the solutions just have trofs which are further to the north. There are enough ensemble members from the more dynamic EC to bring a slight chc of light rain in for the Central Coast during the day. The more likely scenario is just for a deep marine layer with plenty of morning clouds covering the csts/vlys and some mid and high level clouds in the afternoon. Cooler temps are likely no matter what mdl verifies.

Still not the best of mdl agreement for the Thu/Fri time period but the most likely outcome appears to be weak ridging with weak offshore flow bringing mostly clear skies and a warming trend.

Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC are dry through the 1st week of Feb, save for the small chance of light rain next Wednesday.

AVIATION

24/1122Z.

At 1012Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4300 ft with a temperature of 9 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in the rest. Clearing times for cst/vly TAFs may be up to 2 hours later than fcst. There is a 20 percent chc of drizzle 12Z-17Z at cst/vly sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late as 20Z. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT conds could arrive as late as 20Z.

MARINE

24/257 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. However, for PZZ676 there is a 20% chance of gusts to 25 kt Sunday morning as easterly winds push off the coast and across the zone. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast with winds and seas expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Ventura to Santa Monica, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.