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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

SYNOPSIS

05/444 PM.

Northerly winds will switch to northeast by Friday morning, kicking off a moderate Santa Ana wind event that will continue through Sunday. Temperatures will warm each day through the weekend, with widespread highs in the 80s by Sunday. No rain is expected for the upcoming week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

05/226 PM.

Early next week temperatures will trend cooler as the offshore winds drop off. Tuesday will likely be the coldest day next week, when most highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Wednesay, another northerly wind event and building high pressure are to result in a small increase in temperatures. Thursday into late next week, another warm spell is favored with highs in the 80s possible again. Dry weather will continue, as there remains no significant chances for rain.

AVIATION

06/0043Z.

At 1632Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAFs. High confidence in VFR conds through the period, and moderate confidence in wind forecasts. The timing of wind group changes may be off +/- 2 hours and wind gusts could be off by 5-10 kts. Light to Moderate LLWS expected through forecast period. Strongest this evening through tomorrow morning (06/06Z to 06/17Z) and focused across LA/VTA counties around higher terrain. Moderate Turbulence is likely, with a non- zero chance for pockets of severe turbulence during the aforementioned time period across offshore wind prone sites such as KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF, with reduced confidence due to uncertainty in wind forecast with gusty west winds shifting north during the evening hours, but the timing of wind shifts may be off by +/- 2 hours and gusts may be off by 5-10 knots. LLWS and turbulence possible through 06/17Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Light to moderate LLWS and turbulence likely through forecast period, especially 06/06Z to 06/16Z.

MARINE

05/725 PM.

For the Outer Waters, GALE Force level NW-N winds are expected to persist through at least the evening hours, and likely through late tonight. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are then expected to continue through Friday night, except through Saturday south of the Channel Islands. Hazardous steep, choppy seas will likely continue through late night Friday. SCA level NE winds are likely Saturday morning for the waters around the Channel Islands & south to San Nicolas island (PZZ676). Winds are likely to increase again to SCA levels Monday through Tuesday.

For the waters nearshore along the Central Coast, SCA level NW-N winds with large, choppy seas expected to continue through late tonight. Thereafter, conditions are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend. Although, cannot rule out some localized gusts near SCA levels Friday afternoon and evening. Winds may approach SCA levels again Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon to evening hours.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, offshore flow is expected through the weekend, strongest during the evening through the morning timeframe each day Friday through Sunday. There is high confidence in SCA winds nearshore from Point Mugu to Malibu late tonight through Friday morning, with local GALE force gusts possible. NE winds of similar magnitude and coverage are likely to return Friday night through Saturday morning. Winds appear to be somewhat weaker on Sunday at this time. Eastern portions of Santa Barbara Channel will be impacted by the offshore winds during same time frame. W-NW winds expected during each afternoon.

High confidence in ENE winds of 10-15 kts impacting Avalon Harbor Friday and Saturday morning with 20% chance of winds reaching 25 kts. SCA winds are expected across the San Pedro Channel through at least Saturday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones 352-356-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 370-378. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).


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