textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

16/428 PM.

Scattered to isolated showers will persist through late tonight across the area. A cooler storm system will spread rain from northwest to southeast across the area late tonight through Monday night, with decreasing showers continuing into Tuesday. Wednesday will offer a brief respite from the rain with warmer temperatures. Another storms is slated to arrive next Thursday and linger into Friday.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

16/233 PM.

Another system is expected to affect the state on Thursday and/or Friday. There is still considerable disagreement on track and speed of this system. While there is still considerable uncertainty in the rain amounts, timing, and intensities, the official forecast calls for 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on Thursday and a 20 to 30 percent chance on Friday with additional rainfall amounts most likely between a quarter inch and one inch. This system is quite a few days away and is embedded in a fast moving storm track, so it is very likely that the forecast will change as the day draws nearer.

While the model forecasts have different synoptic patterns next Saturday, almost all of the solutions are dry. Max temps should warm, but will likely still remain a few degrees below normal

AVIATION

17/0607Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a deep moist layer up to around 7000 feet.

Overall low to moderate confidence in the 06Z TAFs due to reduced confidence in CIGs preceding an approaching cold front, and in CIGs/VSBY during and after the frontal passage. The timing of rain and flight category changes may be off by 3 hours.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. Light showers possible throughout the forecast period, but most likely from 20Z Mon to 04Z Tue. 40-70% chance RA from 20Z to 00Z, with a 30% chance of IFR or lower conds during this time. There is a 40 percent chance of east wind component reaching 10 to 12 kts sometime 15Z to 21Z.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Light showers possible throughout the forecast period, but most likely from 20Z Mon to 00Z Tue. 40-70% chance RA from 20Z to 00Z along with a 30% chance of IFR or lower conds during this time.

MARINE

16/810 PM.

For the waters from southwest through northwest of the Channel outside the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds are expected to increase (70-90 percent chance) to SCA levels between 900 PM and midnight, with seas increasing to SCA levels on Monday. These conditions will persist through late Tuesday night. Winds and seas will likely fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through early Monday morning, then there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA winds developing Monday afternoon and evening through late Monday night. Short period seas will grow to near-SCA levels (4-5 feet at 5-6 seconds) Monday night. Conditions will likely fall below SCA levels for Wednesday and Thursday, then there is a moderate- to- high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA conditions developing on Friday.

There is a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms across the coastal waters Monday and Monday night. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).