textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

20/812 PM.

A weak upper level trough will move over the area tonight into Monday, cooling temperatures slightly and increasing marine layer stratus. A warming trend will begin Tuesday and peak on Thursday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN)

20/229 PM.

Uncertainty remains with regard to the length of the next heat wave but there are still at least 30% of the solutions showing little to no change in high temperatures through at least Saturday. However, more of the guidance products suggest a slow cooling trend after Wednesday due to a slowly deepening trough along the West coast.

AVIATION

21/0556Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4900 ft with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in the remaining sites. The timing of CIG and any VSBY restrictions may be off 2 hrs and flight minimums by one category. Cigs may bounce between categories. There is a 10 percent chance of -DZ through 18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may vary between 015 and 030 through 18Z. There is a 30 percent chc of no clearing. Any east wind component is expected remain less than 6kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN015 conds through 14Z.

MARINE

20/902 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely (60-80 percent chance) for the waters around Point Conception through late tonight. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA wind gusts west and south of Point Conception Tuesday afternoon and night as well, otherwise conds will be below SCA levels through Thursday night. Expect steep, choppy seas with the SCA conditions.

For the inner waters N of Point Sal, moderate confidence in the current forecast. SCA wind gusts are possible (30-40 percent chance) during the afternoon and evening today and again Tuesday. Conds are otherwise expected to be below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the inner waters S of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Conds are expected to be below SCA levels for the most part through Thursday night. However, for the western Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance this afternoon/evening and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).