textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

17/230 AM.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected this week, peaking Wednesday through Friday. There is a HIGH risk for heat illness this week, with conditions remaining warm overnight adding to the heat risk.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

17/228 PM.

Saturday and Sunday, models suggest that the high pressure will start to flatten out resulting in zonal flow (west to east), and temperatures will finally start to decrease again. For Saturday, there is a 50% chance that some heat products will need to extended through the evening hours, mainly inland and away from the beaches. However by Sunday, things should cool down rather noticeably. Therefore, no heat products are anticipated. Additionally, the marine layer low clouds and fog may return to coastal areas each night as early as Friday night, and more widespread Saturday night.

As for rain chances, deterministic models (and their respective ensembles) indicate some possibility of light showers after the 25th. Though the current run of the deterministic EC is extremely light, if any, and the GFS shows the front breaking up by Point Conception and not reaching areas south of Point Conception (and still very light). However, no significant storms are indicated for Southern California through the end of the month.

AVIATION

17/1953Z.

Around 19Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 600 feet with a temperature near 30 degrees Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected through the period except for a 10-20 chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions 08-17Z for immediate coastal TAFs KSBA to KLGB including KLAX.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period except a 20 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions 10-17Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected at this time.

MARINE

17/1243 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast through Thursday night, then moderate confidence thereafter.

Winds will very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Thursday night. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds each evening across the far northwestern portion of the coastal waters on Thursday evening and Friday evening.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level conditions developing over the weekend with a low (15-20 percent) chance of GALES.

Dense fog is possible each night and morning as a shallow marine inversion may linger over the coastal waters through the week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 87-340-341-346>350-354-355-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE.