textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

29/1258 PM.

The weather will be dry and warmer across the region through Tuesday with gusty Santa Ana winds at times. The next storm will move into the area from the south Wednesday with periods of rain through at least Saturday, heaviest Wednesday night into New Years Day.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

29/210 PM.

There will be a break in the steady rainfall sometime later Thursday night into Friday with just scattered light showers and minimal rain amounts.

A more traditional cold front coming from the northwest will move into the area Saturday into Saturday night with another increase in rain rates, though likely lighter than Thursday with minimal impacts. Snow level will lower as there is more colder air with this system but still mostly at or above 6500 feet.

Lots of uncertainty with regard to how long this showery regime will continue into the following week. Most of the deterministic models shut the rain door late Sunday but there are more than a few ensemble solutions indicating additional light precip into early next week.

AVIATION

29/1526Z.

At 1530Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1000 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for KPRB. At KPRB, there is a 40% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 11Z-17Z.

Strong offshore winds will generate moderate turbulence and LLWS across the local mountains and foothills through the period.

KLAX...For 18Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in easterly wind around 7 knots in the 14Z-21Z time frame.

KBUR...For 18Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast as there is a 30-40% chance of stronger N-NE winds through this afternoon.

MARINE

29/141 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Tuesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast winds are expected south of the Channel Islands with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Wednesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds with a 20% chance of GALE force winds. On Friday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds continuing. For Saturday, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels, but there is a 50% chance of SCA level seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of SCA level NE winds through Tuesday morning with the strongest winds nearshore from Point Estero to Morro Bay and Irish hills to Oceano Beach. For Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds. On Thursday, the chance of SCA level southeasterly winds increases to 60-80% with a 30-40% chance of the SCA level winds continuing on Friday. For Saturday, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels, but there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level northeast winds through Wednesday morning from Point Mugu to Santa Monica with a 20-30% chance of GALE force winds tonight and Tuesday morning. From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds. For Friday and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).