textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

11/937 AM.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will taper off today. Dry conditions and a warming trend will begin Thursday and peak on Friday with a weak Santa Ana wind event. Clouds and cooling Saturday will lead to a chance of rain Sunday. Periods of rain and low elevation snow are likely all next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

11/257 AM.

Friday's ridge will be pushed away by an approaching low on Saturday. Clouds will advance into the state in the SW flow ahead of the low. The offshore flow will end and gradients will be near neutral. With the clouds and without the offshore flow max temps will fall 4 to 6 degrees across the csts and vlys. Look for max temps across the csts/vlys to end up mostly in the mid to upper 60s with a smattering of 70 degree readings.

Sunday will mark the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather. There will be a chc of morning rain across the Central Coast with rain becoming more likely in the afternoon. South of Pt Conception It will be dry in the morning and then a chc of rain will develop in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a quarter inch. Cloudy skies and rapidly falling hgts will lead to 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across the Central Coast and 4 to 8 degrees elsewhere. Highs will mostly be in the mid 60s across the csts and vlys.

What was once going to be a series of separate storms now looks a parade of entangled low pressure systems Sunday night through Wednesday. It should be wet every day. Ensemble based predictions show 2 to 4 inches across the coasts and 3 to 6 inches in the mtns over the Sunday night to Wednesday time period. Snow levels will be quite low 6000 ft at first but possibly falling to 4000 ft or lower by Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a potential for significant snow fall accumulations.

Stay tuned to this product by our NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard office for the latest developments in this upcoming multi day storm.

AVIATION

11/1737Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to around 7000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. There is a 25% chance of LIFR conditions developing at any site from 12/08Z to 12/16Z due to recent rains. Most likely at KPRB (30%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of 1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 6 kts through the forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of 1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z.

MARINE

11/811 AM.

The cold front has moved eastward and is now over land. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will linger at least into the evening hours especially across the Outer Waters north of Pt Conception. Spotty showers will also linger N of Pt Conception through this timeframe.

There is a moderate chance for SCA conditions (winds and/or seas) across the Outer waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday. At times, these hazardous conditions could reach the nearshore waters along the Central coast and western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Another storm system will enter the region Sunday or Monday, bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain to the entirety of the coastal waters. There is a moderate chance for widespread Gale Force winds early next week.

BEACHES

11/814 AM.

Southwest and west facing shores will be particularly vulnerable to developing the southerly swell and surf through this evening, especially the Santa Barbara South Coast, Ventura County Line, Leo Carrillo, and Zuma Beach.

Swell and surf will likely drop below high surf advisory criteria for Thursday, but high surf is likely to develop again from Friday. It is likely that the swell and surf will remain at or above high surf criteria through the upcoming weekend.

The latest swell models continue to highlight a period of very large waves developing for early next week. There is a high to likely (50-70 percent) chance of widespread high surf between Sunday night and Wednesday as a combination of southwesterly and west-northwesterly swells impact the coasts. Sets above 10 feet will be possible across all coasts, but higher chances for west to northwest facing coasts. There is a 20-40 percent chance of damaging sets developing between Tuesday and Wednesday, highest for northwest-facing shores along the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory now in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for zones 379-380-382. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).