textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

17/740 PM.

Slight warming and a shrinking marine layer are expected Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will cool by a few degrees Sunday and Monday, then another gradual warming trend is likely through at least the middle of next week.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

17/150 PM.

Another little trough moves in late Sunday into Monday for a slight cooling trend but probably not that noticeable. The only potential impact will be the likely return of the marine layer to southern areas and 1-3 degrees of cooling area-wide.

The pendulum will swing back towards warming by the middle of next week but again nothing dramatic in terms of temperatures. Highs in the warmer valleys will return to the lower 90s, which is basically near normal for this time of year, while Downtown LA and other inland coastal areas get back into the low to mid 80s, which again is close to normal. Most of the ensembles indicate fairly light gradients next week, except mid to late week where there is 40-50% chance of weak to moderate Sundowners in the Santa Barbara area.

AVIATION

18/0538Z.

At 0453Z at KLAX, there was a weak inversion at 4100 ft. The top was at 4700 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

For KPRB, KSBP, & KSMX: timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hrs and flight minimums by one category.

Have taken all MVFR/LOW-VFR CIGs out of the fcst, however intermittent periods of these clouds are still possible but unlikely.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Have taken MVFR CIGs out of fcst but intermittent periods are still possible but unlikely. Leaning towards mostly VFR for the period. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Expecting VFR conditions. Very low chc of MVFR CIGs developing through 18/15Z (likely brief if occurs). No wind issues expected.

MARINE

17/822 PM.

Moderate confidence in fairly typical Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds across the outer waters south and southwest of Point Sal, then higher confidence in more widespread SCA winds Friday afternoon through Sunday across the outer waters and nearshore waters along the Central Coast. Choppy, short period seas will develop.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Friday afternoon and evening, then a 40-60% chance Saturday and Sunday in the afternoon/evening hours. Local gusts near 20 knot will be common each afternoon and evening through the San Pedro Channel and Santa Monica Bay.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).