textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/201 PM.

Cloudy and cool conditions will continue through Tuesday, with increasing chances of mostly light rain. Warming and drying to follow Wednesday through the next weekend, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees in some areas by Friday.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)

04/213 PM.

High confidence in high pressure aloft continuing its building over the region into early next week. At this point, 500 millibar heights peak Monday or Tuesday of next week around 588 decameters. At the very least, this means that mountains and deserts will continue to warm Friday through Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday or Monday all but a certainty at this point. The coastal and valley areas however will be tricky. There is a fair spread in the onshore and north-to-south gradients, between moderate onshore and moderate offshore. The offshore scenario would bring high 90s to the coastal valleys, while the onshore scenario would keep highs in the high 80s. Climatology would favor the onshore scenario. Our official forecast is fairly conservative and pretty much going down the middle between the two scenarios, which seems like a good way to go this far out.

AVIATION

05/0211Z.

At 2216Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to 8000 ft.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Lower confidence in cigs through 06Z with MVFR conditions at times. There is a 20-30 percent chc -SHRA from 22Z-04Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind component with be less than 5 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10-20 percent chance of -SHRA until 04Z.

MARINE

04/809 PM.

Across the nearshore waters inside the SoCal Bight, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west winds are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. In the Santa Barbara Channel, there will be a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Wednesday night, followed by a higher chance (40-50% chance) Thursday night through Friday night over the western Channel.

Nearshore along the Central Coast there is a 40-60% chance of SCA NW winds Tuesday night and a 30-40% chance Wednesday night. Starting Thursday afternoon, SCA winds are likely each afternoon to evening period through Saturday. The winds will be strongest Friday afternoon and evening, with winds 20 to 30 kt, and SCA conds may persist through late Friday night.

For the outer waters, SCA NW winds are likely (50-70% chance) on Tuesday. After a slight lull on Wednesday, winds will increase again Wednesday night into Thursday and will remain at SCA levels through late Saturday night. Short period seas will build under the persistent NW winds, reaching 10 feet by Friday peaking at 11 to 13 feet Friday night through Saturday night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).