textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

14/237 AM.

A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest Thursday and Friday. Another significant cool down is likely into next week.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

14/226 AM.

The Santa Ana will wane on Saturday as both upper level and sfc support weaken. The winds will also take on more of an easterly direction and this will light up some canyons that were not that windy Friday. Max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees but max temps will remain well above normal.

Look for three days of cooling Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday the offshore flow will reverse to the east while the offshore flow from the north will weaken. This will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the csts and vlys. The inland areas will not see much change.

Hgts will fall on Monday as a trof approaches the state. Onshore flow will develop to the north and the onshore push to the east will increase. These two items will combine to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees (6 to 8 across the Central Coast). Most of SLO/SBA counties will end up a little below normal while areas south of Pt Conception will still be a few degrees over normal.

A big cold upper low will rotate into and through the state Tue/Wed. It will probably be a dry passage, but there is about a 30 percent chc that it will find enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers. It will bring gusty westerly winds and 5 to 10 degrees of cooling.

AVIATION

14/0926Z.

At 0832 at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE

14/235 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For this afternoon through evening, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds across the Outer Waters, especially around Point Conception. For Thursday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the waters. The only exception is there is a 20-30% chance of E-NE SCA level wind gusts across the outer waters south of the Channel Islands and west to northwest of San Nicholas Island due to Santa Ana winds during the late night through morning hours Thursday through Saturday. The highest chances are on Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening. Otherwise expect conds to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area through tonight, with the only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening. Thursday through Saturday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island and possibly from the Orange County Coast out to Catalina Island, strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours.

Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 10 PM PDT Friday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...NONE.