textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

04/1156 PM.

Light Santa Ana Winds will occur each morning today and Friday. Freezing conditions will occur across some interior areas this morning. A significant warming trend will begin this weekend with temperatures well above normal through next Thursday, peaking next Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

05/255 AM.

The warm up will continue through next week. While all mdls are warm the EC and its ensembles continue to advertise the most heat. The east Pac ridge will continue to dominate the Srn CA weather. There is decent agreement that on Monday and Tuesday the hgts will be near 586 dam. After that the GFS weakens the high to about 580 dam while the EC keeps it near 586 dam on Wed and then 589 dam on Thu. For perspective, the average Dec hgt is 571 dam.

At the sfc offshore flow will continue. The offshore flow will be weak most of the time but will rise to moderate levels on Tuesday when there will be gustier winds in the morning. But with no upper level or thermal support its doubtful that there will be advisory level winds on any of the days.

The ensembles do point to the EC's solution and the max temps have been adjusted upwards through the period. Even with this boost there is a 30 percent chc that they are still too low. Right now the forecast call for 2 to 4 degrees of warming Mon and 1 to 3 degrees on Tuesday. The csts will likely cool a degree or two Wed as Tuesday's offshore flow relaxes and allows for an earlier seabreeze. Away from the csts max temps will rise another 1 to 2 degrees each day. Monday's max temps will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and by Thursday most max temps will be 12 to 18 degrees over normal (about 8 degrees at the coasts). Thursday's highs will be in the lower to mid 80s in the vlys and the 70s across the csts.

AVIATION

05/1034Z.

Around 10Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast, except moderate confidence in the current forecast for KPRB. VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a 50 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions between 12Z and 17Z. There is a low chance of moderate wind shear through 16Z at Los Angeles County valley and Ventura County coastal terminals.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through at least 10Z Saturday, then there is a 20 percent chance of LIFR conditions. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots, but there is a 20 percent chance of easterly winds between 7 and 10 knots through 15Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected through the period.

MARINE

05/234 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Less confidence in the forecast for the outer waters versus the nearshore and inner waters.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and outside the southern California bight, there is a high-to-likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of Small SCA level winds developing as late as this afternoon and lingering through the remainder of the period into Tuesday. The highest chances of SCA conditions will be for the northern and western portions (outside the buoy observations) beyond 30 NM offshore.

Inside the southern California bight and for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through the period, but there is a low-to-moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level winds this morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST this morning for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).