textproduct: Los Angeles

SYNOPSIS

27/833 AM.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday, especially inland of the beaches, warmest over the weekend. Dense fog will affect coastal areas each day through Saturday or Sunday. Much cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week, along with a change of rain and gusty winds.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)

26/820 PM.

For the extended, models continue to indicate an upper level trough developing over the West Coast. As this pattern develops, it will bring a very noticeable cooling trend to the area. In fact, by Wednesday/Thurday, afternoon temperatures will generally only be about 2-5 degrees above normal. So, a very welcome reprieve from the heat the last couple of weeks.

More importantly, this pattern will bring the chance of rain to the area in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Due to uncertainty in the timing of rain in the current models, the POPs for any 12 hour period Tuesday through Thursday are generally in the 20-40% range. However, based on the ensembles, there is a high likelihood of measurable rainfall (70-90%) sometime during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. As for amounts, GFS ensembles are indicating, somewhat surprisingly, higher chances of rainfall totals greater than 0.50 inches than the ECMWF ensembles. Given this uncertainty, will not deviate too much from current thinking of most areas receiving 0.50 inches or less with local amounts up to around 0.75 inches (mainly across northwest San Luis Obispo county and the foothills). Overall, based on model trends the last few days, do not anticipate any significant type of storm.

A quick peek into the Great Beyond, models are not indicating any chances of rain in the April 3-11 time frame.

AVIATION

27/1156Z.

At 08Z at KLAX, there was a 500 ft marine layer. The top of the inversion was at 1600 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, and KVNY.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by 2 hours and one flight category.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence. There is a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs returning as early as 0200Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. 10% chance of IFR or lower cigs/vsbys through 16Z and again after 10Z.

MARINE

27/830 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Monday, except for a 50% chance of low-end SCA winds beyond 20 miles from the Central Coast starting Saturday Night.

Moderate risk for dense fog with visibility under one mile will continue through at least Saturday.

There is a growing risk for widespread strong SCA or low-end Gale Force winds over most coastal waters (including nearshore and the Santa Barbara Channel) Wednesday through Friday of next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for zones 350-354-355-362-366>368-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE.