textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temps possible and gusty southwest winds Monday.

- Active pattern next week with a series of precipitation chances, and then turning colder into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

It's an awfully warm and pleasant Saturday out there for the second week of October. Temperatures early this afternoon are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with a comfortable southerly breeze. Largely sunny skies are being filtered by blowoff cirrus from post-tropical storm Isaias as it spins northward over the southeast US. The blowoff will remain overhead into the night and gradually retreat from west to east during the day tomorrow. The NBM has now backed off on any mentionable PoPs in our east and southeast from this remnant storm for tonight and tomorrow morning. A few pieces of deterministic guidance, as well as a handful of members from various ensembles, still suggest a brief light shower may be possible. Accordingly, maintained some "silent" (less than 15%) PoPs in our east in the gridded forecast.

Tomorrow should see highs ranging from the lower to middle 70s in our east to near 80 in our west and southwest. It's worth noting that afternoon temperatures from the NBM in the Sunday through Tuesday period are being skewed by a warm GEPS suite, so have collaborated with neighboring offices to bring temps down closer to most other guidance. Being on the southern flank of a passing low on Monday, efficient warm advection driven by gusty southerly winds will pull highs into the 80s, possibly even nearing 90 closer to central IL. Near-record-breaking values are forecast at Chicago and Rockford. Tuesday will feature a good spread in temps across the area with a cold frontal passage during the day and should range from the 70s north into the 80s south. High temperatures are then favored to fall through the rest of the week and conditions by next weekend should feel much more like what we normally expect for the middle of October.

Still eyeing a signal for a surface low to track across the upper Midwest and drag a cold front across the area late Monday into Tuesday. Recently, however, global guidance has backed off a bit on PoPs with the better forcing and moisture favored just to our north and northeast ahead of the low and a weakly-forced, moisture-starved cold front as it moves across on Tuesday. A low chance for some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm still exists late Monday and into Tuesday, and should be maximized around our northeastern CWA. Regular chances for rain are then in the forecast from late Tuesday into Friday as the regional synoptic pattern becomes a bit more active for next week.

Doom

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated through the period.

Winds will generally be from the south-southeast through the period. Some occasional gustiness (up to around 20 kt) can be expected through late this afternoon before speeds ease quickly into this evening. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.