textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain generally above average through the upcoming 7 days, particularly into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A broad and weakening ridge over the northern Great Plains on Wednesday will shift across the western Great Lakes on Thursday before a quick-moving wave traverses the area Thursday into Thursday night. Low to mid-level isentropic ascent below a slow- moving right entrance region of the upper-level jet will settle southwest of the area throughout the day. Correspondingly, guidance has trended farther southwest with an associated frontogenesis circulation. While top-down saturation should eventually occur across portions of eastern Iowa, it remains unclear if higher precip rates aloft will reach the western CWA before better forcing weakens and/or exits eastward. Have maintained a 20% chance of PoPs primarily west of the Chicago metro during the afternoon and evening, with low-level wet- bulb profiles supporting an initial rain/snow mix changing to snow if precip were to occur. Any precip should end by daybreak Friday with weak ridging shifting across the area through the day.

A dominant southern stream system over the Baja of California late this week will track eastward through this weekend as a faster cluster of disturbances tracks from the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia toward the far northern Great Lakes. Ensemble and deterministic guidance has continued its dramatic shift to a solution with no interaction between the northern and southern streams, which ultimately results in a mostly dry and mild weekend for our area. In fact, about 80% of all ensemble members now suggest dry conditions for at least the northern 2/3 of the CWA. Will still need to closely monitor trends as at least 10% of members (primarily CMC and a few EPS) are holding on to an interaction between the two streams and resultant unsettled weather over our region Saturday night and Sunday. In the event precip does expand well north into the area, widespread rain would be expected areawide along with the potential for wet snow accumulations over portions of northern Illinois.

A large central CONUS ridge will edge eastward over the mid and upper-Mississippi River Valley early next week, setting the stage for a dry and unseasonably warm period to the southwest that may extend to the local area.

Kluber

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1042 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest winds, occasionally gusting into the lower 20 kt range, will prevail through the TAF period. Gust frequency should decrease after sunset and increase after daybreak tomorrow. MVFR cigs currently across Iowa and Wisconsin may spread across the terminals overnight. Otherwise, occasional high clouds will stream overhead.

Borchardt

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.