textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain generally above average through the upcoming 7 days, particularly into early to middle portions of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface high pressure centered over northern Missouri this afternoon will drift eastward across Illinois overnight through Thursday morning. Mid to upper-level cloud cover will gradually increase tonight ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level wave within marginal Pacific-based moisture aloft. Current satellite trends line up well current guidance depicting a narrow corridor of mid-level moisture across Nebraska. As 800-600 hPa frontogenesis sharpens below the right-entrance of a developing 130 knot upper-level jet streak, the axis of mid-level moisture should further saturate and generate a corridor of precip aloft while drifting eastward across Iowa through the night. With existing dry low-levels and the absence of steep lapse rates aloft, precip rates aloft will struggle to top-down saturate fully to the surface. Have maintained 10 to 20 percent PoPs for a rain/snow mix across the far southwest CWA Thursday morning. Weak ridging will then shift across the area Thursday night into Friday.

Broader consensus guidance remains mostly unchanged with a dominant southern stream system over the Baja of California late this week remaining detached from the main northern stream across the northern CONUS. The latest forecast depicts a dry and seasonably mild weekend for much of the area, with 30 percent or lower rain chances toward central Illinois late Saturday into Sunday morning. With that said, there has been a slight northward jog in ensemble guidance, with several members still supporting some interaction with the two streams and precip reaching up to around the I-80 corridor. Corresponding cooler thermo profiles would also support some wet snow mixing in with rain on the northern fringes of the precip shield late Saturday night.

A large central CONUS ridge will edge eastward over the mid and upper-Mississippi River Valley early next week, setting the stage for an unseasonably warm period to the southwest that may extend to the local area. An initial piece of energy originating from a deeper west coast trough may result in a period of unsettled weather with perhaps some convection in the general region midweek.

Kluber

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR with no significant concerns through the period. Northwest winds with occasional 15-20 kt gusts this afternoon will ease with sunset this evening. The only exception is a probable lake breeze wind shift at GYY this afternoon. Expecting light/VRB to calm winds tonight through Thursday morning, with the direction favoring light easterly Thursday afternoon.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.