textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures expected through early next week.

- Chance of rain well south of I-80 Saturday night.

- Next chance of precipitation middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery currently shows a narrow corridor of mid-level moisture providing some cloud cover over Lake Michigan and northwest Indiana. The rest of the forecast area sits under clear skies. Temperatures are already down in the mid to upper 20s. While most of the urban/suburban areas are expected to wake up in the mid 20s, many of the more rural areas still have a chance to drop into the low 20s prior to daybreak with efficient radiational cooling.

Fairly quiet conditions are expected today. There is a weak mid level trough moving across southern Ontario. Maybe some of the mid level moisture increases cloud cover over the waters today, but otherwise sunny skies are expected. With such clear skies, temperatures are expected to increase into the low to mid 50s today. And while low temperatures tomorrow morning are expected to be warmer than this morning, clearer skies will allow temperatures to drop once again below the freezing mark.

Models are showing fairly good agreement in a deep upper level trough to move from the desert southwest today through Texas and toward the southeast on Saturday. This stronger system will remain well south of northern Illinois, thus limiting local impacts in our area. And yet, it will help create a low amplitude wave that will move over the Central Plains Saturday and pass over central Illinois Saturday night. While there is a slight (less than 25 percent) chance for some light rain in the southern metro, guidance continues to keep the better moisture and forcing well south of I-80 with a stout gradient potentially on where the northern periphery of rain develops.

There is a little uncertainty with the amount of cloud cover that can move northward with the Saturday system. An early influx of cloud cover may create temps that are slightly warmer in the forecast than what will transpire. That being said, an upper level ridge and reflected surface high pressure builds through early next week allowing for a warmer air mass to set up over the region. There is a little uncertainty on exact temperature values as more mesoscale features like onshore flow or cloud cover could tweak things at time a little cooler. However, a longer stretch of above normal high temperatures is forecast through at least early next week, maybe into the middle of the week depending on the timing of the next system.

But all good things but come to an end. While conditions are forecast to be dry through the early part of the week, models are suggesting the next upper level trough to enter the northern Plains Tuesday evening and pass over the area Wednesday into Thursday. There is still a lot of model discrepancy to have a good handle on exact timing and precipitation. However, while precip may start out as rain, there is a chance for some localized snow to mix behind the passage of a cold front, but confidence remains low. High temperatures behind this cold front should bring temperatures back down to around seasonal normals once again. There remains chances for another system to cross the Plains to be monitored for another chance for rain and maybe some wintry precip late in the next work week.

DK

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated through the period.

Light south-southeasterly winds early this morning will turn south-southwesterly later this morning as surface high pressure continues to shift off to our east. Expect some occasional gustiness of 15 to 20 kt this afternoon before speeds quickly abate with sunset early this evening. Another period of very light and variable winds are then likely tonight into early Saturday morning before directions settle into an east- southeasterly direction later Saturday morning. The light winds may also foster some patchy fog late tonight, mainly outside the main Chicago terminals.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period, with only some patchy high cirrus at times.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.