textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and more seasonable conditions expected through Wednesday before shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Surface high pressure will dominate across our area Tuesday into Wednesday. The net result will be dry weather with mostly sunny weather through midweek. Temperatures will rebound back into the mid 80s Tuesday (70s near the lake with onshore winds) and into the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. While dry weather is anticipated both days, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast later in the week.

Later in the week, a surface cold front is forecast to slide southward from the Upper Midwest into the lower Great Lakes. This front will likely act as the focus for showers and thunderstorms to our northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night, then potentially across our area Thursday into Thursday night. We will have to keep an eye on the threat for more locally heavy rainfall with this activity, especially given the potential for slow storm motions. Some lingering chances for showers and storms will persist on Friday, though the with the effect front likely to be shunted southward, the better focus for precipitation Friday may largely end up well south of I-80.

This weekend into early next week, ensemble guidance supports the building of an expansive upper-level ridge across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. Building heat under this ridge will result in warming temperatures (back into the upper 80s) into our region through the weekend.

KJB

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

There are no hazardous aviation conditions expected through the current TAF window, maintaining VFR conditions in the forecast. Northeast winds will diminish through the evening and slowly become just west of north around midnight. There is a non-zero chance for BR early tomorrow morning away from the city of Chicago. However, the air mass (both currently and modeled through tonight) looks too dry near KRFD. While there is slightly better low level moisture around and east of KGYY, confidence was too low for formal mention in the TAF. Light northwest winds will start the day tomorrow before a lake breeze around 10 knots arrives midday flipping things back to the northeast for Chicago terminals.

DK

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.