textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable conditions to end the work week, before a bump in temperatures above normal this weekend.

- Chances for showers on Sunday morning, mainly near and southeast of Interstate 55.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Winds have turned to the northwest behind a dry cold front. Sunny skies abound with only faint high clouds passing over on GOES visible satellite imagery. Current high temperatures in the 70s will fall once again overnight to lows in the upper 40s for rural areas and lower 50s in the Chicago urban heat island.

An upper level ridge over the western CONUS will slowly slide east over the next several days. Seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s are expected tomorrow and Friday. Conditions should remain dry for most of the forecast area. The exception being a plume of elevated moisture and better lapse rates that moves in Friday morning along the eastward periphery of the ridge as it enters the forecast area. Showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder are possible for areas mainly northwest of the Fox River Valley, but given the amount of antecedent dry air at the surface the confidence in coverage remains low and the chances for precipitation diminish farther east into the forecast area. Winds are expected to turn to the south behind the moisture plume into Saturday.

This will affectively usher in a drier, warmer air mass once again allowing temperatures over the weekend to climb back above normal with possible highs in the low 80s for areas along and south of I-88 on Saturday. Temperatures will be warm on Sunday as well, but could be more muted due to the increased cloud cover from the remnants of the tropical system, currently churning in the Gulf.

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently northwest of the Yucatan peninsula with a forecasted track by the National Hurricane Center to move inland near the Alabama Gulf Shores and head north toward the Ohio River Valley. The earliest remnants of this system are expected near the forecast area on Sunday morning. Models are still showing some disagreement on the exact track, but they area starting to favor a northwestern jog that would bring tropical moisture and the chance for showers back into the area. For now, the best chances for rain looks to be southeast of Interstate 55 and into northwest Indiana, but model trends will need to be monitored for exact timing and location.

After brief upper level ridging early in the week next week featuring a bump in temperatures above normal, another cold front is expected to pass through mid week with another chance of rain and dropping temperatures back down to seasonable norms.

DK

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Lake breeze is within a mile of MDW and still possible that could briefly result in a wind shift to easterly the first hour or so of the TAF cycle for MDW. Otherwise, VFR conditions and west to northwest winds generally 10kt or less.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.