textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures is expected through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The front that brought rainfall yesterday continues to move east of the region. High clouds remain over potions of north- central Indiana, but will gradually move east through the evening. There is a narrow band of convergence that extends from southern Lake Michigan down to Gibson City, Illinois resulting in mid-level cumulus clouds. Clearer skies extend northwest of the area as today marks the first of several with generally dry conditions.

Winds remain out of the northeast around 10 mph, and are expected to diminish after sunset. With clear skies, light winds, and cooling temperatures, there is a chance for patchy shallow fog away from the Chicago metropolitan area. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but satellite trends will need to be monitored overnight. Otherwise, the northerly flow will advect in a cooler air mass knocking temperatures down into the 40s to locally upper 30s tonight.

Seasonable temperatures look to set-up through next week with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Monday night does look cooler with potential for overnight lows locally in the upper 30s. Ensemble models are showing some consistency with a couple of fronts passing through the western Great Lakes: one on Sunday, the other in the middle of the week. It is possible either provide an isolated shower or sprinkle, though chances look comparatively better in Wisconsin.

The dry pattern is favored to continue into the second full week of October with chances for rain returning sometime in the October 11-13 timeframe.

DK

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light northeasterly to variable winds overnight will quickly become southeasterly around 10 kts after daybreak. Winds will then gradually turn out of the SSW through the evening and into Sunday morning.

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Have introduced TEMPOs for some MIFG at RFD and DPA with near-zero degree dewpoint depressions at this hour.

Late this evening and overnight, a robust disturbance will shift across the region. A dry low-level airmass will preclude widespread precipitation, but there are some indications that a narrow corridor of instability aloft could result in the development of some spotty showers/light sprinkles. At this time, have left out any PROB30 mentions, but may consider in future TAF issuances.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for the IN nearshore waters.