textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect rain showers will shift into northwest Indiana this morning and end this afternoon. The showers may mix with or briefly change to wet snow overnight with little to no accumulation expected.

- Seasonably cool temperatures are expected through the weekend with a warming trend back to above normal early to middle next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Lake effect rain showers will mix with snow at times inland and away from Lake Michigan early this morning, as the overall band of precipitation slowly shifts east into northwest IN this morning and then east of the area this afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation, but along the edges of this band of precipitation, where temperatures have cooled into the lower 30s, some minor snow accumulation on grassy or elevated surfaces remains possible overnight. Once this precipitation ends later this afternoon, dry weather is expected through at least next Wednesday.

While overnight low temperatures will be below normal for mid November, in the 20s away from Chicago/Lake Michigan, daytime highs will rebound to near normal by Sunday and then likely above normal every day next week with highs well into the 50s and perhaps pushing 60 by the end of next week. Low temps will eventually warm as well and by mid/late next week, possibly be in the 40s.

Only other weather item of concern to watch for is the potential for fog the next several nights. Light winds at the surface and light winds aloft with limited/no mixing may allow for some shallow/patchy fog to develop Saturday night and again Sunday night. Confidence is too low for any fog mention for now. cms

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Main aviation forecast concern continues to be lake effect rain/snow shower band and degree and timing of impacts to KMDW and KGYY overnight.

Late evening radar imagery shows that the main north-south oriented band of lakc-induced showers has drifted a bit west into far southeast Cook county and the IL/IN state line region. Have received a couple of reports recently of some wet snow flakes mixed in with the rain in downtown Chicago, where surface temps and wet bulbs have cooled sufficiently on the western periphery of the band. Expectations are that this band will remain off to the east/southeast of KORD, but close enough to warrant a VCSH (especially with ORD on west flow and approaches coming in from the east), and will just graze KMDW for the next few hours and thus have included a TEMPO -SHRASN there. KGYY remains most likely to see a more prolonged period of SHRA, and while a few wet snow flakes can't be ruled out there the proximity to slightly warmer air off the lake should keep the bulk of the precipitation there as rain. Latest guidance suggests showers should move out of the KMDW area by 08-10Z and KGYY closer to 11-13Z Saturday. MVFR conditions are likely at times within these showers, more prominently at KGYY.

Outside of the showers mentioned above, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period at all sites. Occasionally gusty NNW at KORD/KMDW and KGYY will gradually ease by morning, with NW winds around 10 kts at all sites on Saturday. Winds will become light NW or just light/variable after sunset Saturday.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.