textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and a warming trend will occur through the weekend into early next week.

- The next chance for precipitation is forecast mid-late next week and will likely be accompanied by cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The low pressure system that has been resulting in the cooler, more seasonable temperatures is moving eastwards into the northeastern CONUS. Across the southwestern CONUS, a large upper-level low embedded within the subtropical jet is slowly moving eastward into New Mexico and west Texas, resulting in the ridge in the western CONUS moving into the central CONUS. The eastward moving ridge is causing warm air to begin advecting into our region today and over the next couple of days as the core of the polar jet remains north of our area. Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer than last night, so most of the area will be staying just above freezing. However, a few areas well outside of the Chicago metro could see temperatures drop to right around the freezing point. It appears winds will increase tomorrow as a subtle trough with the polar jet will increase the rate of WAA in our region tomorrow. High temperatures will rise above normal tomorrow through Tuesday with highs in the low to possibly mid 60s during those days.

With clear skies tonight along with persistent warm air advection, low stratus and perhaps some regions of fog could develop later tonight as low-level moistening occurs. If any fog does form, it appears it will remain rather localized and focused west- northwest of most of the Chicago metro area through early Sunday morning.

Looking ahead to later in the week, deterministic and ensemble models are all showing a substantial cool down next week. An upper- level low looks to form in east-central Canada early to mid next week, then move southwards into our region, arriving here later Wednesday and into Thursday. It appears pop chances will remain rather low during the arrival of the upper- level low, deterministic models show the possibility of lake effect precipitation beginning later Wednesday and into Thursday. Depending on the level of cold air that gets advected into our region, there is a possibility of someone near downtown Chicago and northwest Indiana getting their first snowflakes of the season.

Parsons/KJB

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Brief potential for some 5-6 sm BR and spotty IFR/MVFR cigs early Sunday morning

- Gusty westerly winds developing late tonight into Sunday

Guidance continues to trend away from widespread low stratus late tonight and Sunday morning. Still can't rule out some patches of IFR cigs developing towards and just after daybreak, but chances remain too low to warrant TEMPO groups at this time. Surface winds remaining in the 5-10 kt range and gradually increasing tonight will curtail more of a widespread BR/FG threat, although some 5-6 sm vsbys can't be ruled out on a localized basis. Winds will turn westerly with gusts into the 20-25 kt range expected through Sunday afternoon. Winds will then ease towards 10 kt around sunset and turn out of the northwest.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.