textproduct: Chicago

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through mid next week.

- Less than 30 percent chance of rain around and south of US-24 Saturday night.

- Precipitation chances return toward the middle of next week (30-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s presently for urban areas of Chicago and expected to drop down to around freezing by day break. However, another night of clear skies has allowed for temperatures in more rural areas to drop down into the 20s, with Rockford being the coldest by touching 22 for a moment early this morning. With dew points in the low 20s, there is a chance for patchy fog to crop up, particularly north and west of the Fox Valley. While the fog threat will be monitored, dense fog is not expected this morning.

Temperatures will once again climb into the 50s today, though an afternoon lake breeze will keep the Illinois shoreline in the 40s. There is a little uncertainty on max temperatures though given the increased cloud cover through the day from the incoming system which may limit heating.

Mosaic radar imagery shows a wide swath of showers and thunderstorms over Kansas City and the Ozarks down past Abilene, Texas. These showers and storms are associated with an upper level low projected to remain well south of Illinois. However, it will create a short wave trough that will pass over Central Illinois into tonight. Model guidance continues to trend chances for rain farther south, leaving the NAMNest as the hi-res outlier of rain chances north of US-24. PoPs were once again scaled down, with a sharp gradient of higher PoPs south of US-24 and only slight chance PoPs around and just north of it.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will begin to grow over the Plains on Sunday and move toward the western Great Lakes through the early part of next week. With a warmer air mass moving in, consistent above normal temperatures are expected with a chance for low 60s on Monday. A weak upper level trough moving through central Canada is projected to send a dry cold front southward Monday night into Tuesday morning. While rural temperatures have a chance for upper 50s and maybe low 60s on Tuesday, the resulting onshore winds that develop behind the front will keep temperatures much cooler in the 40s for areas closer to the lake. As the next upper level trough moves into the Dakotas late on Tuesday, better warm air advection out ahead of it will increase temperatures once again for another shot at 60 on Wednesday.

There remains some model discrepancies on the details for the middle of next week, but there is a consistent signature that that trough will form an upper level low, develop surface cyclogenesis in the eastern Dakotas and continue to move eastward over Wisconsin on Wednesday. While the better chances for downpours is expected to remain closer to the surface low north of the forecast area, this system looks to have the next best chance of showers (and a slight chance for elevated thunderstorms) for the area. Given the current path of the low projected through Wisconsin, there is lower confidence in how far south the rain will make it in the forecast area and might develop a strong gradient for areas south of Interstate 80.

After a cold front moves through in the wake of the Wednesday system, temperatures will gradually tumble down into the weekend. Models are still suggesting another stronger system will develop and eject out of the central Plains late next week and move northeastward over the area, though disagreeing on the details. One thing to monitor will be overall temperatures. While rain is still the favored precipitation type, with cold air filtering in, there is a chance that it could result in snow or a rain/snow mix at times, though the details will have to be ironed out as it comes closer into view.

DK

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

There are no significant aviation weather concerns anticipated through the period.

Light and variable winds will persist today in a region of weak surface high pressure. This is expected to foster the development of an afternoon inland shifting lake breeze towards the main Chicago area terminals. Accordingly, an easterly wind shift is expected this afternoon after 20 or 21Z, though the exact timing remains somewhat unclear. Winds remain light tonight, but directions will gradually settle more west- southwesterly into early Sunday morning.

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, though some higher level cloud cover will move in across the area today as a weather system tracks south of the area.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.