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KEY MESSAGES

* A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM EST Saturday. With morning lows in the single digits and wind chills ranging from -5 to -12 to start the weekend

* Another Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM EST until 9 AM EST Sunday across the Bluegrass with wind chill values around 5 below to 8 below Saturday night and Sunday morning.

* Very cold temperatures through the weekend. With small chances for flurries or brief isolated light snow showers Saturday and again on Monday.

* A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible next Tuesday into Wednesday. Some ice and snow accumulation is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Cold air remains the theme as we go through the weekend across southern IN/central KY. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning into the early afternoon. Current satellite imagery shows some lingering high clouds over across mainly eastern and southern KY while we have some low stratus stretching from Lake Michigan into western KY. Temperatures per the KY Mesonet had temperatures in the low teens, steady northerly winds around 5 mph producing wind chill values between 5 above to 5 below with plenty of time for temperatures to fall into the single digits just before daybreak.

Strong arctic high currently over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest will build southward into the central Plains during the day as deepening sfc low takes shape off the coast of the Carolinas. Upper trough axis associated with an upper low swinging through the Ohio Valley today will continue strong CAA over the region. It will be another very cold day as temperatures will be mainly in the teens with a few locations able to briefly top 20 degrees later this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the north between 5-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph, we will see wind chill values in the single digits to right around 10 degrees.

Increased cloud cover along with low-level moisture saturating the DGZ between 1000-850mb, we will continue with the chance of some scattered flurries or isolated snow showers. We could also see some moisture enhancement from the aforementioned moisture streaming off Lake Michigan into the area later this afternoon/evening helping to keep some light flurries or isolated snow showers around. Snow rations are around 20:1 making any snow that would fall be a very dry and fluffy snow.

Tonight into Sunday, we may see some clearing from the north to the south overnight. The best clearing looks to be over the Bluegrass as the Lake Michigan fetch keeps some clouds along and west of I-65. After collaborating with our neighbors, decided to go with another Cold Weather Advisory for the Bluegrass, including Lexington as we could see winds remain strong enough and temperatures cold enough to produce wind chill values near or below minus 5 for another night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The overall upper pattern as we go into next week and the start of February continues to show prolong ridging over the west and troughing along the east coast of the CONUS. Placing the Ohio Valley primarily under northwest flow aloft. Within the flow we anticipate to see a series of disturbances embedded in the flow bringing with them increased cloud cover, continued below normal temperatures and times of increased precipitation chances.

While we will remain below normal through the extended period, we will moderate warmer than the previous week. Sfc high pressure from over the weekend will settle across the southeast CONUS on Monday as another sfc high pressure drops out of Canada over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Aloft, we will see slight ridging over the Ohio Valley resulting in increasing heights over the region. Wind will become more southerly resulting in increased WAA over the area Monday into Tuesday. After several days locked into the 20s and even teens we will start to see not only near freezing temperatures but above freezing temperatures in the mid/upper 30s and even some places into the the 40s. After a chilly start on Monday, with lows in the teens, highs will warm into the mid/upper 30s with near 40 along our far southern counties along the KY/TN border. By Tuesday, we will see even warmer air push north with highs expected in the low/mid 40s along and south of the Parkways and mid/upper 30s to the north. While this is a warm-up from the past week, these temperatures are still about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The first embedded system in the aforementioned flow aloft will be a clipper system working across the Great Lakes on Monday. Models generally seem to be in agreement keeping the bulk if not all of the precipitation to our north across northern/central IN. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, while a flurry can not be ruled out, I think confidence is growing that we stay mainly dry as this system passes by early Monday morning.

The next system of note, which also looks like the best chance at precipitation over the long term, is the development of a weak sfc low over the Mid-Missippippi Valley/Ozarks into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a mid-level trough working across the central Plains and Midwest. As this system approaches, deep Gulf moisture will advect northward providing isentropic lift over the moderate cold air in place developing the potential for widespread wintry precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Models continue to show the development of a LLJ bringing a warm nose into central KY on Tuesday. Models still differ on the strength and northern extent of the LLJ which will be responsible for the warm nose just above the surface. While there is confidence that we will see precipitation with this system, with a wintry mix likely of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible. Where confidence remains low is on the overall track and strength of the system and where and when we see the transitions of wintry precipitation over the CWA. QPF with this system remains low with less than a tenth of an inch north of the parkways, to 0.10 to 0.33" along and south of the parkways. This continues to limit the potential for widespread winter storm impacts during this time.

Slightly colder air is expected behind this system before another clipper system could potentially arrive by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

IMPACTS: - VFR Flight Categories this morning - MVFR CIG increase by midday - Isolated/Scattered Light Snow/Flurries

Other than a brief band of light snow across SDF this morning most locations were reporting VFR flight categories. Looking upstream across central IN around IND, there appears to be a band of mid- level clouds associated with the trough axis that is working through today. This will also bring in the low MVFR cigs which look to be around mainly 2200Ft but could see at times it drop to around 1800/1500ft. Winds will increase to around 10 kts out of the north and can't rule isolated gusts approaching 20kts today. The other potential impact could be isolated flurries or light snow. As mentioned above we've seen this already this morning and there is the possibility we could see more but timing and location is extremely challenging so continue to keep them out of the forecast as confidence is not extremely high on when and where.

Overnight could see some improvement for a few TAF sites like SDF/LEX with the other locations holding on to MVFR CIGS.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for KYZ031>037-039>043-047>049-056-057. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.