textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Patchy fog and freezing temperatures may lead to a few slick spots on elevated roads this morning.

* Temperatures will increase 3-5 degrees each day, reaching the upper 60s and near 70 by the end of the week.

* Dry weather is expected through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

===Dry Today with Clouds over the Bluegrass===

Currently, there are calm to light winds and clear skies over the region. This has allowed for efficient radiational cooling, bringing temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s. Patchy fog is possible this morning, and given freezing temperatures, there may be a few slick spots on elevated roads.

As deep troughing slowly pushes to the northeast, a band of vorticity is moving south and into the northeastern portions of the region. This feature, coupled with northerly fetch from Lake Michigan, will bring broken to overcast low level clouds. These clouds will push northeast of the region this evening and into the overnight hours. Given cloud coverage over the Bluegrass today, highs will remain a bit lower in the upper 40s and low 50s. The rest of the region will see highs in the mid 50s. Overnight, calm winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to cool into the mid-upper 20s for most and low 30s in urban areas. Patchy fog will be possible early Monday morning.

===Dry and Warming Each Day This Week===

Ridging over the central Plains will gradually push east and amplify through mid week. At the surface, strong high pressure will be centered right over the CWA early this week and reach near 1036mb. This setup will allow for temperatures to warm 3-5 degrees each day through Wednesday, reaching the mid-upper 60s. Calm and clear nights will allow for efficient radiational cooling, therefore, lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

Thursday, troughing will move through the Great Lakes region and force upper ridging and surface high pressure to push to the east. Winds will become southerly, which will allow temperatures to continue to warm into the upper 60s and possibly the low 70s by Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Dry conditions will persist through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, there is a fair amount of agreement amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance to bring a low pressure system through the Great Lakes region. This could be our next chance for a cold front to bring rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through this cycle, although we will have to deal with some lingering MVFR ceilings chances this afternoon at LEX/RGA. A persistent low level moisture feed off of Lake Michigan is allowing for a blossoming stratocu deck this afternoon. Most of the extent of the cloud cover should be east of I- 65, however SDF could also get in on some Sct-Bkn clouds likely just above the MVFR/VFR threshold. Outside of that, expect mostly clear skies tonight and tomorrow with VFR prevailing. Light N winds today, will go light NE or calm tonight, and then light out of the E on Monday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.