textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and mostly dry through Tuesday.

* Above normal temperatures expected through the week.

* Precipitation chances increase for Tuesday Night through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

GOES Sounder shows a plume of around 1 inch precipitable water over the Lower MS River Valley. A weakening shortwave trough over Nebraska will approach the region tonight. A low-level jet forming overnight along with some weak lift ahead of that shortwave may bring enough isentropic lift to squeeze out some light rains across the region Monday morning. Think the best chance to measure precip will be the farther east you go...more to the I-75 corridor. Updated the gridded forecast with latest hi-res model trends.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

As of the early afternoon, the forecast area was under mostly clear skies and widespread temperatures in the 60s. RAP model 500 MB height and wind analysis showed an upper level ridge of high pressure center over the Gulf with a small shortwave trough of low pressure embedded in the main flow over the central plains. Model projections have that shortwave trough quickly moving into the Ohio River Valley overnight into tommorow morning, which will bring increased cloud cover (mainly higher level) and some chances for precipitation. While probabilities for precipitation (greater than 0.01 in.) are at most between 30 and 40 percent (seemingly driven by the GFS forecast, other models are meager in precip chances) in the Bluegrass and southward along the I-75 corridor, the NBM mean precipitation is between 0.01 to 0.05 inches, so fairly light rain (if it occurs at all).

Surface Bermuda High pressure in the Atlantic and strong surface low pressure in the upper plains has the Midwestern / Midsouthern states sandwiched between a fairly strong pressure gradient for Monday and Tuesday (anywhere between 6 to 10 MB change). This will drive south to southwest wind gusts (between 50% to 80% chance for greater than 20 mph areawide). Strong warm air advection in place for both Monday and Tuesday will bring above normal temperatures. Chances for exceeding 75 for Monday are 50-90% east to west while chances for exceeding 80 degrees on Tuesday range from 20% from the US127 corridor to 90% to along and west of I-165 in KY / US231 in Indiana.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low passes east through southern Quebec/northern New York while dragging a cold front towards the CWA, and with moisture continuing to get pushed up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by the surface high over the Atlantic, PWATs continue increasing over the CWA to around 1.25-1.3". The west to east oriented front is expected to stall in the region, leading to showers and thunderstorms remaining in the area through early Wednesday night. There continues to be little chance for anything severe given the weak shear, but a thunderstorm could produce gusty winds with the little bit of expected instability. The front will limit high temperatures to the upper 60s over southern Indiana to the mid 70s from Bowling Green, the southern Bluegrass and the Lake Cumberland areas on Wednesday.

Wednesday night, guidance continues to show a shortwave, digging south through New Mexico into Texas, in the middle of a split upper jet. The shortwave will help develop an upper trough and surface low near the Ozarks before quickly pushing the low northeast just north of the Ohio Valley. This would keep the bulk of precipitation chances north of the CWA, making for a mostly dry Thursday, but scattered showers/thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

By Thursday night, PWATs increase to 1.5-1.6" ahead of the system's cold front. This would bring a better chance for precipitation to the Lower Ohio Valley through the first half of the day on Friday. Again the severe threat continues to look pretty low, but widespread showers are expected. WAA would help push temperatures back into the 70s through Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday, a stronger cold front is expected to push through the area. This could bring a return to high temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s for Sunday, Most current models have the front arriving Sunday morning with sounding profiles looking pretty stable with continued weak shear.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 136 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Gusty south-southwest winds will remain through the period with marginal low level wind shear remaining possible for the rest of tonight. Tomorrow, LLWS chances come to an end, but gusts increase to 25-30 knots in most places with increased low VFR cloud cover. A few isolated to scattered showers will also be possible over LEX and RGA. Believe showers should remain south of SDF and east of BWG.

CLIMATE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record Maximum Temperatures Possible Tuesday...

Tue, Mar 31st Rec (Yr) | FCST | Normal SDF 86 (1981) | 82 | 64 LEX 82 (1986) | 80 | 62

BWG 83 (1978) | 83 | 66

FFT 82 (1998) | 81 | 63

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.