textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A reprieve from rainfall continues through Saturday before the next round of widespread rain returns Sunday. A couple brief showers are possible in southern Indiana Saturday afternoon, but conditions will be otherwise dry and comfortable.

* Strong to severe storms will be possible later Sunday afternoon into late Sunday evening. All severe hazards could be in play, especially along and west of I-65.

* A somewhat unsettled pattern is expected through early week with temperatures slightly below normal and off and on shower and storm chances possible, especially across southern KY.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

It has been a beautiful day today across central Kentucky and southern Indiana with high pressure currently in place. The combination of temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s has made for comfortable conditions across the area that will last into the start of the weekend. A scattered mid-level cu field currently present will clear after sunset tonight, and with light winds expected tonight, temperatures will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s. Saturday will be fairly similar to today, with comfortable dew points and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave will move over southern Indiana during the afternoon that may be able to produce a few showers, but chances remain low at this time (< 20%). Even though the surface high pressure will begin to shift to the east Saturday night, conditions will be dry across the area Saturday night, with lows in the low-to- mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Sunday - Monday Night...

Sunday will start off dry with with a progressive shortwave ridge providing a bit of subsidence before it quickly drifts eastward. Temps are expected to reach into the mid 80s into the afternoon under increasingly cloudy skies through the day. As we get into the late afternoon through Sunday night, a shortwave will eject out of the eastern Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, the associated surface low looks to track through the Wabash River Valley.

Models continue to disagree on the strength of this feature with European based data suggesting a stronger surface low, and GFS based data suggesting a weaker surface low. This likely explains why current AI NWP data supported by the European ensemble data (Pangu/FengWu) are showing a stronger signal for severe chances, vs. the GEFS based data with a weaker surface low showing a weaker overall signal. This same discrepancy shows up between the various model camps when looking at expected ML CAPE values. The weaker surface low solution only yields around 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE, with the stronger solution more around 1500-2000 J/KG.

Regardless of what ends up being the case, there does appear to be enough overlap between deep layer shear values around 35-45 knots and either a modest or moderately unstable atmosphere in our area. The best overlap is generally along and west of I-65 for the moment. Could eventually see the Slight Risk being moved a bit farther east into our NW CWA, if not our western half of the CWA. It should also be noted that trends with the AI based data have been steadily more concerning for our western CWA over the past several days of runs.

Forecast soundings do show a favorable environment for wind, or perhaps a tornado threat, and given a surface low in the Wabash River Valley low level winds could easily be backed a bit. Point forecast soundings up near Jasper IN show a curved low level hodograph yielding 250-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Low topped supercell storm modes could be in play, however would likely struggle above 25k feet thanks to 500 lapse rates above 500 mb. Mid level lapse rates in the 700-500 mb range are quite sufficient however.

The overall thermodynamic profile should become less favorable into Sunday night, however shower and storm chances will continue given plenty of elevated instability. The lead wave pushes east by Monday morning, however the cold front trailing from the aforementioned surface low could stall out W-E somewhere along or south of our TN border. This is expected to set the stage for repeated rounds of showers and storms through Monday as shortwave progress W-E through the zonal flow aloft and parallel to the quasi-stationary surface boundary. We'll have to watch for a hydro threat as the airmass should be quite moist along and south of that boundary.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Expect a mostly dry stretch of weather as we head into mid week as surface high pressure across the Great Lakes region extends enough influence into our area, the front boundary sags a bit too far south to trigger showers and storms over our area. Being on the north side of the boundary, temps will run a bit cooler than normal on these days, mostly in the low 80s.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

Below normal temperatures in the low 80s continue into the late week time frame, along with some small chances for a shower or storm. Generally broad and low amplitude troughiness hangs over the eastern CONUS during this time. A subtle shortwave or an approaching weak surface front could be subtle triggers for widely scattered shower or storm activity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Some patchy fog may develop near the terminals tonight, though confidence is too low to include in the TAF package.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.