textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong winds from the south continue this afternoon with gusts of 40-50 mph. Some isolated areas of 50+ mph will be possible.

* A robust cold front will push across the region tonight and early Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a damaging wind threat. Tornadoes will also be possible.

* Rapid drop in temperatures early Monday morning, with scattered snow showers expected Monday. Light snow accumulations will be possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong, deep S/SW flow is in place ahead of a deepening low pressure system moving across the Midwest. A potent mid/upper level trough will continue to dig over the Midwest and MS Valley through tonight, while a sub-990 mb sfc low lifts northeast over Lower MI. We have seen widespread 40-50 mph gusts out of the south today, with brief gusts of 50-60 mph across southern IN and northern KY. We did consider an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for 60+ mph damaging gusts, but the strongest gradient winds were occurring 17-18Z and current ASOS/AWOS/KY Mesonet obs are all in the 35-50 mph range. The strongest core of the LLJ also continues to lift northeast across central IN.

This afternoon, a thin QLCS is pushing east across central MO along the cold front. This line of very gusty showers and thunderstorms is still expected to sweep west to east across central KY and southern IN between 9 PM EDT - 3 AM EDT tonight. The low-level moisture quality and sfc-based instability still look marginal (up to 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE), but the wind damage threat should be taken seriously. The southerly LLJ ramps up significantly tonight immediately ahead of the convective line, with 60-70 kts noted in the 1-3 km layer. With increased turbulent mixing and convective downdrafts, scattered to numerous instances of wind damage are expected along the leading edge of the QLCS. Isolated 70+ mph gusts will be possible, especially with any bows or surges along the line. Tornadoes are also possible, but the tornado potential will be limited by the overnight timing and waning sfc-based instability as the line pushes east.

Showers are expected to clear the Bluegrass Region around 4 AM EDT, with strong westerly cold air advection behind the cold front. Expect a brief lull in precipitation, with rapidly falling temperatures and gusty westerly winds of 25-35 mph. The upper trough swings overhead on Monday, with wrap-around moisture pivoting across IN and central KY. Steepening lapse rates and a cooling/moistening profile up through 700 mb will yield scattered snow showers late Monday morning through the afternoon hours. A quick dusting of accumulation will be possible, perhaps up to an inch in very localized swaths. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s through the daytime in the CAA regime.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It will remain somewhat breezy Monday night as temperatures fall through the 20s, evening dropping into the mid/upper teens early Tuesday morning across southern IN and north-central KY. Wind chills in the single digits and teens are likely Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, and afternoon temps will recover into the low to mid 30s. It will remain chilly into Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s. Increasing SW winds and WAA will help boost temperatures into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday ahead of a weak clipper. This system could spread light rain and snow as far south as southern IN and central KY. Relatively drier and warmer weather is expected heading into late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very strong southerly winds will continue this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front. Wind gusts of 35-40 kts possible 18- 00Z, with winds diminishing ever so slightly after sunset. However, additional 40-50+ kt gusts will be possible late this evening and overnight along and just ahead of a convective line of SHRA/TSRA. Scattered instances of wind damage are expected along the line. This line will blast east across central KY and south-central IN between 02-07Z Monday. Winds will veer westerly behind the line/cold front during the early morning hours of Monday. SHRA will exit to the east 06-09Z Monday, but scattered SHSN is expected on Monday, especially after 15Z or so.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for KYZ023>043- 045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for INZ076>079- 083-084-089>092.