textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and a few storms are expected through midday today. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible.

* Another wave of showers will move through late tonight and Saturday. The two rounds of rain will bring rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.5".

* Cooler temperatures arrive for the second half of the weekend, along with quieter weather. The next chance for precipitation is expected during the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 259 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Gusty Showers, Possibly A Few Storms through Late Morning...

At this early hour, it is unusually warm across the area as strong low-level southerly flow continues with a 60+ kt H85 jet extending from the lower Ohio Valley up into Michigan. Moisture advection out ahead of a sfc cold front along and just west of the Mississippi Valley as of 07Z has raised sfc dewpoints into the low 60s across western KY and southwest IN, with a corridor of PWAT values of 1.3- 1.4" immediately ahead of the cold front. Within this corridor of rich moisture, widespread rain showers have blossomed, with coverage increasing over the last few hours as the right entrance region of a H5 jet moves over the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. This H5 jet is associated with a shortwave that is expected to move sharply northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario over the next 12-18 hours. As it does so, 992 mb sfc low over southern WI will also lift to the northeast, dragging a sfc cold front across the Ohio Valley later today.

From now through mid-morning, gusty south winds will continue over the area as strong low-level jetting remains in place. So far, we've seen widespread gradient wind gusts of 30+ mph, with isolated 35-45 mph gusts. The strongest wind gusts appear to be occurring as the column saturates, with gusts decreasing slightly once lower clouds and rain showers begin. While we've already seen a few sites reach 40 mph, and will probably see a few more, still think that it should be isolated/marginal enough to stick with the SPS, which goes through 15Z.

As far as severe potential is concerned, we're certainly in the high- shear, low-CAPE parameter space given the anomalously strong wind field and MLCAPE values to our immediate west on the order of 100- 400 J/kg. What is likely saving us from a more substantial severe threat is the lack of greater mid and upper-level height falls, keeping mid-level temperatures mild and suppressing lapse rates and instability. Still, we can't completely let our guard down given the wind field, and a conditional threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a quick spin-up tornado will exist if any stronger cores can develop (even in cells with no lightning). As the cold front pushes east later this morning, scattered to numerous showers, possibly with embedded thunder and lightning, will move across the area, clearing into eastern KY by around 11am - noon EST. The area of a few hundred joules of MLCAPE is expected to collapse later this morning, and there may be little to no instability left by the time convection reaches the I-75 corridor. Once the cold front moves through, lower dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures will bring an end to any severe storm potential, with winds swinging around to the west/northwest and easing by this afternoon.

Later Today through Saturday...

This afternoon and evening, mainly dry weather is expected across the area as the initial cold front and rain showers pushes off to the south and east of the area. Temperatures should gradually cool during the late afternoon and evening hours as weak cool advection filters in from the northwest. A few breaks in the clouds are certainly possible behind the front, though this should be relatively short-lived.

This evening into tonight, a secondary shortwave will eject from the southern Plains across the mid-Mississippi Valley. As it does so, low-to-mid level moisture will begin to work northward into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, and a secondary sfc low is expected to work northward from the Gulf states across east central KY and into the middle Ohio Valley by midday Saturday. Fortunately, this setup will feature moisture overriding a near-sfc cool and stable air mass, with just plain rain showers expected late tonight into the day on Saturday. The greatest coverage of rain showers should be east of I- 65 tonight into Saturday, through some enhancement farther to the west is possible on Saturday as the left exit region of the H5 jet approaches the area.

All in all, precipitation amounts continue to trend down for tonight and tomorrow, and the probability of flooding also continues to decrease. Still, we could see localized nuisance/minor flooding, especially where heavier showers train over the same areas.

Temperatures on Saturday will exhibit a strong NW-SE gradient, ranging from the upper 40s to the low 60s across the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 259 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Saturday Night into Sunday morning, the main upper-level trough axis will sink from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, helping to kick the deeper moisture and rain showers to the east of the Appalachians. While we should have strong mid-level CVA and forcing for ascent ahead of the trough, model time-heights show fairly limited low-to-mid level moisture. Think we will still see waves of stratocu move through the area Sunday morning, as well as some isolated to scattered flurries or light snow showers. However, with the limited moisture and progressive nature of the upper trough passage, think any snow flurries will be short-lived and not particularly impactful.

Sunday should be a cool and breezy day across the area as cold advection moves in between the departing sfc low and the approaching high over the Plains. Again, with the progressive passage of the upper trough, high pressure is expected to settle over the TN valley by Sunday night, causing winds to calm and temperatures to tumble into the low 20s across the area. Quiet weather is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday as NW upper flow continues and surface high pressure settles across the deep south. Temperatures will gradually moderate during the early week period as modest return flow works around the northwest side of the sfc high.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, the next system to impact the region will begin to take shape as an upper-level trough dives south from the eastern side of Hudson Bay into the eastern CONUS. As sfc low pressure strengthens to the north of the region on Tuesday, winds should become breezy out of the SW, helping to return temperatures to above normal levels. As a cold front begins to sink into the region from the north Tuesday evening, moisture return will begin across the Ohio Valley. Vapor transport progs suggest that the track of the system (with blocking sfc high over the Gulf states) will limit overall moisture, with predominantly Pacific-source moisture expected. As a result, while rain shower chances are looking increasingly favorable Tuesday night into Wednesday, overall precipitation amounts should be relatively light.

Unlike the weekend system, which should feature a compact, progressive trough passage, WPC 500 mb cluster analysis for mid-to- late next week suggests that general troughiness is favored to hang around. As a result of persistent cold advection, it will become increasingly favorable for wintry p-types by Wednesday night into Thursday, currently supported by ECMWF ensemble p-type meteograms. Moisture availability seems to be the main limiting factor for significant wintry precipitation at this time, but it's something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 650 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Narrow band of gusty showers continues to work across central KY and southern IN this morning. The line currently stretches from KIMS to KFTK to KHVC. MVFR CIGS and gusty winds between 40-50kts have been possible and reported along this line broken line. Should be over SDF and BWG near the beginning of the forecast then work towards LEX and RGA towards late to mid morning before exiting to the east. Looks like we will see a return to VFR for most sites the only areas we may need to watch is HNB and SDF as a cold front continues to approach from the west but eventually stall over the area. Could see CIGs lower back to MVFR.

Winds are expected to diminish as the storm system over the Great Lakes continues to move off to the northeast. Winds will also begin to shift from the southwest to more northerly this evening to around 5kts. Another round of rain will move in from the south later tonight into tomorrow morning. Still some questions on with the better chances towards the south then working northward.

CLIMATE

Issued at 259 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Record Maximum Temperatures Possible Today...

Fri, Jan 9th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 67 (1949) | 67 LEX 70 (1930) | 66

BWG 70 (1930) | 69

FFT 70 (1930) | 66

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.