textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong south winds are expected on Sunday with gusts of 40-45mph.

* Strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night and Monday morning. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a damaging wind threat.

* Rapid drop in temperatures will lead to a rain to snow transition early Monday morning. Brief snow accumulations will be possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The cold front has exited the region to the south and is beginning to stall over TN. High pressure will move over the region this morning and push off to the east by the afternoon. The stalled front over TN will lift north as a warm front in the afternoon, as a low pressure develops over the Rockies. As the warm front lifts north, it will likely bisect the region. This will create a gradient of high temperatures, where north of the warm front will see temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and south of the front in the upper 60s and touching 70. Looking at forecast soundings, we will see ample mixing today, which may bring some mild dry air mix down. For this reason, have lowered Td and RH and increase winds slightly. Will see afternoon RH in the 25-35% range and wind gusts around 10-15mph.

The low pressure system over the Rockies will begin to strengthen and push east Saturday night. Southwesterly flow and WAA will increase over the region, which will increase temperatures on Sunday. Highs are forecasted to be in the mid-upper 70s. A strong 60+kt LLJ will peak as it moves over the lower Ohio Valley mid- morning through the rest of the day on Sunday. This LLJ coupled with tight pressure gradients and ample mixing will lead to increased winds on Sunday. Sustained winds on Sunday will be 25-30mph and gusting 40-45mph (some 50+mph gusts will be possible at times). A Wind Advisory will be needed for Sunday. Confidence in these winds is high.

Sunday evening, the low pressure system will continue to deepen and work NE over the Ohio Valley. The cold front of this system will begin to push into western Kentucky around 0Z. A thin line of showers and storms will be just ahead of the cold front as it pushes east across the region. The convective environment will be well primed from deep troughing lending ample forcing and shear, strong WAA bringing deep moisture, a strong LLJ to increase the low-level shear, and some weak (~300J/kg) instability. Instability will be limited given that the line will be moving through during the diurnal minimum and warm air aloft. Due to these conditions, the main threat will be damaging winds. There is a chance for a brief, spin-up tornado, given line-breaks, nubs, and other QLCS characteristics. The QLCS will move through quickly only lasting a short while in any one location.

Scattered showers will linger behind the cold front, especially as moisture wraps around the occluding low pressure system. Strong CAA behind the cold front will allow for rain to transition to snow Monday morning. Snowfall up to about 1 inch is possible. Though accumulations will remain minimal given warmer ground temperatures. Brief dusting will be likely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Monday...

Snow will taper off from west to east Monday late morning. Continued CAA into the region will keep high temperatures around freezing for the day. Winds will remain breezy through the day and steadily slacken late Monday as the pressure gradient weakens. With cold weather and gusty winds, it'll be a blustery day.

Tuesday through Friday...

Continued CAA and approaching high pressure will bring temperatures into the teens for lows on Tuesday morning. High will remain around freezing for Tuesday.

High pressure will push east of the region on Wednesday, which will allow temperatures to increase. A weak, shortwave trough may bring a clipper system through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning. This would bring a brief chance for rain/snow showers. Best precip chances will be over the northern half of the region.

The remainder of the week and into the weekend looks quiet with mild temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain at all area TAF sites through the forecast period. A warm front will lift north today which will lead to veering light winds. Early Sunday morning, a strong low pressure system will bring a strong LLj over the Ohio Valley. This will introduce LLWS at all TAF sites after 6Z until sunrise on Sunday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.