textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Very mild this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Rain showers are likely this evening into tonight in central Kentucky, and there is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

* Cooler and dry Wednesday through Friday.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall reaching as far north as central Kentucky.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is lifting northeast over northern Mexico this afternoon, with broad mid and upper level ridging the Lower MS Valley and Lower OH Valley. A deeper upper level wave and associated sfc low are rotating east across Ontario. This northern system will drag a cold front southeast through the OH Valley later this afternoon and evening. We've seen fairly robust near-sfc WAA and moisture advection via strengthening SW winds. Sfc dewpoints have risen well into the 50s, even touching 60 degrees in southern KY. Meanwhile, temperatures have surged to around 60 degrees north of I-64, with low to mid 70s noted across south-central KY.

The low-level warmth and moisture will yield weak destabilization of the warm sector airmass just ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE of 100-250+ J/kg looks reasonable in central KY, which will result in a more convective nature to any showers that develop this evening. There is also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. As for the development of precipitation, it will still take some time due to drier air aloft. There is good consensus among CAMs for a thin band of showers to develop along or perhaps just south of the Ohio River after 6-7 PM EST. The band of showers will then sink southeast through central KY with an expanding footprint tonight. The rain should clear the Lake Cumberland region early Wednesday morning prior to sunrise.

The potential for convection, as well as ensemble paintball reflectivity 40+ dBZ, suggest brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in central and southern KY this evening into tonight. Again, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Conditions dry out early Wednesday morning from NW to SE, with winds veering northerly and bringing cooler air into the region behind the cold front. Temperatures will drop back into the 30s early Wednesday, and areas north of I-64 could see upper 20s.

Sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest on Wednesday. A lingering thin layer of moisture should yield SCT-BKN stratocu for a cool, partly cloudy day. Afternoon highs will range through the 40s. The sfc high moves overhead Wednesday night and Thursday, with broad upper level ridging centered over the Plains. The weather looks cool and quiet through this stretch, with morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Sfc high pressure gradually shifts off to the east Thursday night through Friday night. A weak low pressure system should develop ESE over the Red River Valley, but it appears any appreciable moisture should remain southwest of the region. Thus, dry weather is the most likely scenario at this time. Highs on Friday may be able to rebound into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday - Monday...

A deep upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS will stream eastward across Texas and eventually the Southeast this weekend. A sfc low is likely to pass south of the area, though confidence is lower on the exact track/evolution of this system. Deep S/SW flow should advect quite a bit of moisture north into the Deep South and likely into the TN Valley. Isentropic ascent across a warm frontal boundary could yield heavier rainfall into portions of central KY, though how far north the moisture reaches is questionable. At this time, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is most likely across south-central KY late Saturday into Sunday. QPF of 1+ inches is quite possible, though the rainfall amounts are likely to change as the weekend draws closer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR likely to begin this TAF period with mostly sunny skies. We do have SCT cirrus streaming across southern KY. Lower to mid-level ceilings will develop and lower this evening just ahead of an approaching cold front. MVFR ceilings are likely between 00-08Z Wed, with brief drops to IFR possible. A narrow band of showers is expected to develop near or just south of the Ohio River around 00Z, with the showers expanding in coverage a bit as the band drops southeast through central KY tonight.

Weak instability could result in a few rumbles of thunder, but the probability for TSRA is not high enough to include in the TAF. Brief heavier showers could drop visibility to 2-3SM or less for a very short amount of time.

SW winds will be gusty this afternoon ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-25 kts possible. These gusts will diminish by 22-23Z, with winds then veering westerly and northerly fairly quickly in the wake of the cold frontal passage.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.