textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Areas of patchy fog across the area are possible through early Sunday morning, along with a few isolated showers in our far southern counties.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, with storms most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms may produce locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.

* Episodic bouts of showers/storms are expected to continue through the rest of the weekend and into at least the middle of next week. Localized excessive rainfall may result in flooding in some areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 707 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

POPs were adjusted for the first few hours of the forecast period to account for ongoing rain showers across the area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with widespread rain showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

With variable sky cover across the area, areas of patchy fog have developed in locations that have experienced relatively little cloud cover so far tonight. Light surface winds as well as favorable low- level moisture have aided in this, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise as temperatures and winds increase. A few showers and storms are currently ongoing across the far southeastern portions of our CWA, with our next round of widespread showers and a few storms set to begin later this morning.

A weak frontal boundary from a weak surface low over the Great Lakes extends south towards far western Kentucky Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upper-level low develops over eastern Texas with multiple shortwaves jetting eastward from it towards the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow will again advect ample moisture over the area. Current SPC mesoanalysis puts us under an area of 1.25-1.5" of PW, though a plume of 1.5-1.7" PW over the Mississippi Valley is trekking northeastward towards us.

With decent ascent and moisture out ahead of the frontal boundary, widespread showers are expected for most of the day on Sunday. Mostly overcast skies will limit the extent of diurnal heating, though with instability expected to increase as the day progresses, chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also increase. The wind shear profile at the low levels is rather meager, so while we are not expecting organized severe convection, any stronger storms that do develop today could produce heavier downpours, lightning, and gustier winds. With considerable cloud cover, temperatures will only get up into the mid 70s Sunday afternoon.

For Sunday night, the coverage of showers and storms quickly decreased due to the loss of diurnal heating. The frontal boundary becomes more SW to NE aligned Sunday night, becoming nearly stationary over central Kentucky by Monday morning. The placement of this will be important as most of the rainfall in the coming days will take place along and south of the front, which will be a factor in how much drought relief we can get.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

===== Monday - Wednesday =====

A more active pattern is expected for the upcoming week with daily precip chances. The synoptic pattern will feature the primary upper level jet north across Canada, though a cut off low ejecting north across the southern Plains will support a strong moisture fetch into the lower Ohio Valley. In addition to that, a frontal boundary will meander back and forth across the area, leading to a local forcing mechanism to fire off daily showers and perhaps some storms.

For Monday, the sfc boundary will be pushing through the area as a cold front and will struggle to clear our area and may stall out across southern KY by Monday night. Temps in the 70s are expected throughout the day, with at least scattered to numerous showers and a chance for isolated storms in the afternoon. The boundary will continue to sit across the Commonwealth on Tuesday as a stationary front, slowly meandering northward through the day as the cut off low over the ArkLaTex region lifts north into the Midwest. This will open the door for an even better moisture fetch across our area, with PWATs expected to surge above 1.6". The LREF mean ensemble ranges around 1.75-1.8" across the region Tuesday morning, and a 25% chance of exceeding 1.9" across south-central KY. This places us right at the sounding climo max for this time of year. This will support heavy, tropical-like rainfall that could drop visibility significantly and produce local swaths of high precip amounts.

The boundary will be situated parallel to the Ohio River on Wednesday, which will keep the high-PW environment in place and as a result numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Severe chances remain low through the first half of the week, given model soundings show water-logged profiles and skinny CAPE. Certainly think we'll have some storms, and heavy downpours given the PWATs, but shear is marginal without much wind energy over the area.

===== Thursday into the Weekend =====

Toward the end of the week, a deep upper low will move onshore across the PNW and meander over the Intermountain West region. At the same time, an upper shortwave and low will move across the northeast US. This will sandwich the middle of the US into an upper ridge, and developing a slanted omega-type pattern. However, at the sfc, we'll still be dealing with the stationary boundary, which will continue to support daily precip chances. PoPs for the end of the week will be slightly higher during the afternoon time frames given the boost from any daytime heating.

Finally by Friday the boundary should shift far enough south that we are able to see some slightly drier air begin to filter in from the north. This is mainly noted over the weekend with drier PoPs for the northern half of the CWA, but still hang on to some low-end chances across our south.

As mentioned in the prior discussion, the main impact from this week's weather pattern should be continued amelioration of drought across Kentucky. Ensemble most likely rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected across the area through Friday, with convection likely leading to localized swaths well in excess of 3". The LREF depicts a 60-80% chance of exceeding 2.5" of rain for counties south of the WK/BG Pkwys from today through Saturday of next week. Flooding will become a greater concern, especially in those aforementioned convective swaths and across southern IN where the antecedent conditions are not dry. Otherwise, fairly seasonable temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

A cold front is approaching the region from the west and there are showers and a few storms out ahead of it. Numerous showers and storms will continue to stream over the region until about 3Z. VIS may drop to 1-2SM at times in heavy rain. MVFR CIGs will continue over most of the region and begin to lift towards the later afternoon. Overnight, the cold front will stall over I-65 and CIGs will begin to fill back in. CIGs will lower to IFR likely and over the Bluegrass maybe even LIFR and fog. Will continue to monitor this trend for the next TAF issuance.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ029-030- 034>043-045>049-053>057-065>067. IN...None.