textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until the first few days of November (11/1-2).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

This Morning through the Weekend...

It is another clear and calm morning across the region as the influence of broad sfc high pressure and upper level ridging continues to bring quiescent weather across much of the eastern CONUS. Typical ridge-valley and urban-rural differences in temperatures are observed, with readings ranging from the upper 30s to the low 50s at this hour. The main thing we're watching through mid morning will be the development of patchy fog in valleys and near bodies of water where dewpoint depressions will be lowest. Patchy frost also can't be ruled out in the coldest spots; however, coverage should be limited so no headlines are anticipated.

Outside of patchy valley fog development, no significant weather is expected this weekend. Pleasant fall weather is expected to continue as high pressure east of the Appalachians and upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley continue to exert their influence, bringing mild and dry conditions to central KY and southern IN. As the upper ridge gets nudged slightly eastward through the weekend, marginal rises in 1000-850 mb thicknesses should support temperatures trending a degree or so above persistence each day, with highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s. Large diurnal temperature swings should also continue, with temps dropping into the 40s in most areas each night.

Next Week through the end of October...

Blocking high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will keep mean synoptic-scale troughing over the western CONUS through early next week, with upper ridging and sfc high pressure continuing to support dry weather across the region. A few shortwave disturbances may try to eject along the top of the eastern US ridge; however, they should be fairly moisture-starved and would be expected to bring little more than a few extra clouds during the mid-week period. As a result, dry weather is expected to persist through all of next week, with recent global model guidance trending downward for rain chances late next week. Temperatures should be relatively consistent from day-to-day next week, and should be above average overall.

This extended stretch of rain-free weather will lead to increasing precipitation deficits for both the month of October and meteorological fall (since Sep 1st). Worsening drought conditions are likely where they currently exist, and the spatial extent of drought will likely increase over the coming 7-10 days.

The next chance of rain on the horizon arrives Halloween weekend, though only about 20% of GEFS/EPS solutions show rain on Halloween. Better chances for rain should hold off until the first few days of November, when a stronger system may move across the Ohio Valley (forecast confidence medium, stay tuned for more details next week).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As long as patchy fog does not develop over the next 1-2 hours at HNB, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the current TAF period. There is some signal for patchy fog Sunday morning at LEX/RGA; however, confidence in this possibility is too low to include in the forecast at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.