textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, warmer temperatures and gusty 25-30 mph southwest winds are expected with breezy conditions remaining tonight.

* Widespread rain returns to the region Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 410 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today, the Lower Ohio Valley sits between surface high pressure to the south and a cold front dropping southeast towards the region from the upper Midwest. In this area of tightening pressure gradients, southwest winds will warm temperatures well into the 40s as gusts reach to 25 to 30 mph. Overhead, northwest flow will keep lots of high-level cloud cover streaming to the southeast.

Tonight, as the cold front approaches, there is a slight chance that a sprinkle of flurry could be seen across southern Indiana or central Kentucky. The better chances are across southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass, but model soundings keep the low levels extremely dry, so even with saturation in the mid and upper levels, believe it's unlikely to reach the ground. Plus, warm air advection continues, limiting falling temperatures to the mid 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 410 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Wednesday, currently the forecast remains dry, but the latest runs of some CAMs have PoPs increasing throughout the day, mainly across our eastern communities as a slow moving front is able to continue moving south, saturating the low levels and getting precipitation to make it to the ground. Overall, still not expecting much in measurable rainfall.

Wednesday night and Thursday, rain chances increase as surface high pressure over the Southeast funnels Gulf moisture up the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This will increase precipitation chances north into central Kentucky as northwest flow carries a quick forming front ahead of another surface low approaching from the northwest, resulting in increased precipitation chances over southern Indiana. Before the front pushes through the region and off to the southeast by Thursday evening, the whole CWA can expect rainfall, but values are trending down with anywhere from a third of an inch in parts of southern Indiana to around an inch near Clinton County. Model sounding remain very stable. Not expecting any thunder, just a rain event.

Friday through the weekend, the mildly amplified upper trough becomes slightly more zonal, and as strong surface low passes well north of the Great Lakes, high pressure from the south will keep skies mostly clear. An increasing pressure gradient ahead of a developing system early next week could bring some added clouds for Sunday, but the day currently looks dry.

This week temperatures will continue to warm from the 40s today to the 50s tomorrow. Most of the week will remain on either side of 50 with widespread 60s expected currently for Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds are currently light but will quickly increase this morning. Expect southwest winds to gust to 20-25 knots with low level wind shear becoming an issue after 0z tonight at all area TAF sites.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.