textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and drier weather remains through Tuesday.

* Tuesday night, non-severe showers and thunderstorms possible.

* Wednesday night and Thursday, a strong low pressure system will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds (in and out of thunderstorms) are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Today, with the axis of an upper trough running near the CWA, surface high pressure, centered over the Plains, will continue to get pushed our direction. This will keep light northwest winds in place, limiting highs to the mid and upper 70s. Skies start off the day mostly sunny, but cumulus will increase towards the afternoon hours.

Tonight, with the surface high passing through the region, winds will go near calm. Remaining low level cloud cover could help limiting radiative cooling, but lows are still expected to drop into the 50s. As the high passes, winds will back to the south by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tuesday, the Ohio Valley remains at the bottom of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. The almost zonal flow through the region will push the surface high farther off to the east, away from the CWA. Light WAA under mostly sunny skies will lift temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday evening into the overnight, a weak surface low swings through the upper trough over the Great Lakes. It's trailing cold front will bring the chance for increased showers and thunderstorms to southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The best chances will be to the north over Indiana with more isolated to scattered convection working through Kentucky. Severe weather isn't expect.

On Wednesday, the CWA still sitting under the upper trough, remaining mostly sunny, but as a deepening surface low over the northern Plains dives towards the lower Great Lakes region, the increased pressure gradient is expected to increase WAA throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will lift highs into the low to mid 80s as dew points begin lifting from around 60 into the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday night.

Wednesday night into Thursday, as the unseasonably strong surface low gets ejected through the Great Lakes region, it will drag its trailing cold front slowly through the CWA and its dew points in the low 70s. With the front expected to be parallel to the Ohio River, it could take the front until Friday morning to make it through central Kentucky. There is currently very good agreement on timing of this system, and if the system comes through at night, the boundary layer could be a little more stable reducing severe chances. It still appears the better chances for severe weather will be north of the CWA, closer to the low, but with a low this strong, expect strong gusty winds in gradient winds as well as in any thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, some surface winds could be backed which could add to a tornado threat, but closer to the front winds become more unidirectional, lowering the threat. The storm's arrival is still far enough out that details will come into better focus, but would plan on gusty winds being likely with this storm.

Behind the front, CAA returns with a trailing surface high diving towards the Ozarks. This will bump highs back to around 80 degrees and produce dry conditions into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 733 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain through the forecast period. High pressure continues to slide southeast towards the region. This will cause winds to shift towards the northwest before cumulus develops through the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.