textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A line of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front. No severe weather threats are expected.

* Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday night through Tuesday.

* A strong sfc low pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday will bring a chance for strong to potentially severe storms, heavy rainfall, and gusty non-thunderstorm winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A cold front is currently moving across the region bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms moving SE from south central IN. The additional forcing caused by the boundary along with marginal instability is allowing for development across the area. With PWATs just below 2", rain showers could produce a healthy downpour. Wind gusts will also continue through the evening as these storms could produce subsevere wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph. Nighttime temperatures are expected to cool into the mid to upper 50s tonight with light winds. Areas of patchy fog could be possible overnight in locations that receive the additional moisture from this evenings showers.

Once the front passes through, an area of high pressure off to the west will start to build in over the Ohio Valley. This will lead to northwesterly flow that will bring cooler and drier weather for Monday. Maximum temperatures tomorrow will only warm into the mid 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Skies will be partially cloudy, so overall a nice start to the week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The weather story through the long term will be the near to below normal temperatures through the period and the potential for strong to severe storms and gusty winds by the middle of the week.

Tuesday will feature another very pleasant day for mid June with afternoon temperatures 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints comfortably in the mid 50s. We continue to monitor the forecast for the middle of the week as the deterministic models continue to show the development of an anomousoly deep sfc low developing over the Plains Wednesday and then working into the Great Lakes sometime on Thursday. This system will bring a sfc cold front towards the Ohio Valley from he west late Wednesday into Thursday. As the sfc low deepens, a strong LLJ will develop ahead of the approaching cold front. This will allow for strong moisture and warm air advection to work in from the south into the region. Aloft, a strong jet streak will be passing by to our north creating long curved model hodographs with ample deep layer sheer. This combined with the increase in warmth and moisture, it isn't surprising that the SPC has put us in a Day 4 Slight (Level 2 out of 5).

While there is confidence a potentially impactful weather system will be moving through the area Midweek, confidence remains low on the finer details and of course just how impactful this system will be. Given that there is strong model agreement along with continued strong AI guidance run after run that severe weather is likely to occur with this system, it remains to be seen just exactly when and where the worst and most impactful weather associated with this system will take place. Because of this, overall confidence is low but we do expect there to be strong gusty winds and the potential for strong to severe weather as well.

The cold front and associated precipitation is expected to move out on Friday with another round of unseasonably cool June temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80 and rather comfortable dewpoints as we start the weekend, but rain chances look to increase near the end of the long term with the next system by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the evening and into the overnight. Showers are exiting towards the east with improving ceilings and cloud decks becoming FEW-SCT overnight, or clear otherwise. NW winds will lessen overnight to near calm conditions. Winds remain from light from the NW through tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR conditions with nearly clear skies are expected tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.