textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant weekend in store outside of some scattered rain chances across southern KY later tonight into Sunday. Look for highs in the 70s.

* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday night.

* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the 50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The surface cold front has made it into the northern Gulf Coast states with expansive surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have cleared somewhat across our northern half of the CWA, however may still have a few lingering patches of drizzle across southern KY this morning where low clouds are hanging in. Otherwise, look for a dry day with a steady NE surface wind and variable cloudiness depending on your location. Southern IN and northern KY are more likely to see mostly clear skies later today, while central and southern KY have a better shot at more cloud cover. Decided to stick with highs on the lower side of temperature guidance given the fairly steady NE surface winds reinforcing cooler air over the region. The better chance at sunshine across the northern CWA will help offset this a bit, but still looking for low and mid 70s in most spots. It is possible some locations don't get out of the 60s.

Will carry some scattered shower chances across southern KY into the Lake Cumberland region later tonight into Sunday as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. As this occurs, it should be able to tap into the northern fringes over the deeper moisture shield stretching from the western Gulf up through the mid Atlantic. Overall QPF amounts for our southern counties will be very light. Otherwise, look for dry conditions across the rest of the CWA with temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Still will have a bit of N/NE surface flow which could hurt temp recovery a bit. Leaned on the lower side of guidance here as well.

Surface high pressure and unremarkable NW flow aloft take back hold of the area going into Sunday night. Pretty good radiational cooling conditions expected along with mostly clear skies will allow for temps dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area.

The upper-level low swings directly to our north Monday into Tuesday, flattening out our UL trough into a westerly flow aloft. This should swing our gusty surface winds around from northeasterly to easterly by the early Tuesday morning hours. We should stay cooler on Monday and Tuesday as we aren't advecting warmer air from our south or west, with highs in the lower 70s. Lows remain in the lower 40s for the majority; however, isolated upper 30s are possible, especially in a couple of cooler valleys across the CWA. Tuesday keeps a west to east flow aloft that tracks down to the surface throughout the day, and winds should weaken as they undergo the change from easterly to westerly by early Wednesday morning. Expect warmer highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the low 80s, with overnight lows in the the upper 40s and low 50s, with the metro struggling to decouple as much as the rest of the area and therefore remaining warmer than the rest of the CWA. Saturday evening and Sunday bring our next chance of rain showers as a tropical moisture pushes its way north; expect warm and humid highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s and cloud cover before showers begin on Sunday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The surface cold front has pushed south of the TAF sites, and an overall drying trend has taken hold over the area. HNB/SDF have seen a return to VFR conditions, however still hanging onto low MVFR/IFR ceilings at LEX/RGA/BWG. These ceilings will persist until sunrise to late morning at LEX/RGA, and could last well into the afternoon at BWG for improvement back to VFR. Steady NE surface winds between 7 and 12 mph are expected today as surface high pressure stays positioned to our north over the Great Lakes. Expect lighter winds and mostly clear skies tonight, with perhaps some fog development possible toward dawn on Sunday, especially at the eastern TAF sites.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.