textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and a few storms are expected early Friday morning through early Friday afternoon. Strong to severe wind gusts will be possible.

* Another wave of showers and a few storms will move through on Friday night and Saturday morning. The two rounds of rain will bring rainfall totals of 1 to 2.5".

* Colder weather is expected for the Sunday through early next week period before temperatures moderate a bit into mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Upper sky cover is beginning to fill in this morning, which will slow the radiational cooling for the remainder of the overnight hours. Have seen very efficient cooling over the northeastern portion of the CWA, where some spots have dipped into the upper 20s and low 30s. May see some very patchy fog development in river valley regions this morning.

Today, a shortwave trough will move from the desert SW through the central Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley region. As this system strengthens, ridging will move into the region and amplify. Increased heights, along with increased southerly flow, will allow for temperatures to increase this afternoon into the mid-to-upper 60s and some spots in the low 70s. The BWG record high on the day is 69, tied in 2019. Temperatures today be near this record. Strong WAA through the day will allow for dew points and PWATs to increase rapidly. Will likely see dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s by the end of the day. As the low pressure system approaches the region, pressure gradients will tighten, and coupled with good mixing, this will bring gusty winds up to 25-30mph this afternoon and evening.

Thursday night, the low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region, which will bring a warm front and a strong LLJ through the lower Ohio Valley. This LLJ will keep breezy conditions outside of showers/storms through the overnight. With ample moisture over the region, and good upper jet structuring, will see scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms develop and move east over the region in the early morning hours on Friday. With very limited instability, mainly just a few hundred joules of MUCAPE, don't expect to see widespread severe weather. Though, strong to severe winds will be possible in showers and storms. Also, given the favorable shear profile and the possibility for a linear segment to develop, there is a weak, brief tornado chance. Showers and very few storms look to move in after 6Z from the NW and will continue slowly moving east through the early afternoon.

Outside on showers/storms on Friday, we will see unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s and some areas in the low 70s. Lows on Friday morning will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Will have to keep an eye on both the warm min and max temp records on this day (see climate section below for more details).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Friday Night - Saturday...

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to push northeast into eastern Canada, however the cold front will stall in the lower Ohio Valley Friday evening. We will see a brief lull in precip Friday afternoon and evening. This break will be short, due to another wave moving out of the desert SW and into the Mississippi Valley, that will help to induce cyclogenesis over the region. We will see another plume of moisture into the region and a modest LLJ over the TN Valley. These features will help to bring scattered to numerous showers and a few storms back to the region. Though, storms will likely be limited to far southern Kentucky, given the cold front will likely be positioned over central Kentucky. Strong to severe winds will be possible within showers and storms over southern Kentucky. Timing is about 6Z as showers enter from the south through about 15Z.

With 2 waves of showers and storms expected, we are looking to see 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall over the northwestern half of the CWA and 1.5-2.0 inches of rainfall over the southeastern half. Some areas in the far southeast may approach 2.5 inches of rainfall. Could see some flood advisories for ponding water during both of these waves of rain.

Saturday Night - Thursday...

The low pressure system will mature and become well stacked as it pushes into the Great Lakes region on Saturday night. The cold front of the system will push through the Ohio Valley by Saturday night. Drier and colder air will quickly push in behind the cold front. On Sunday, strong troughing and vorticity will remain over the region, which could bring a chance for snow flurries or light snow.

Sunday night, deep troughing will push off to the east and surface high pressure will build in. Dry conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Expecting to see chilly temperatures on Monday morning, as lows are forecasted to be in the low 20s and some cooler spots in the upper teens.

Northwesterly flow pattern aloft looks to become more active on Wednesday and Thursday. A trough is forecasted to amplify over the upper Midwest and then swing through the Ohio Valley. This will bring another chance for rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 539 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Winds are beginning to increase out of the southeast and will become gusty by the early afternoon. Low stratus is drifting north over western Kentucky this morning and may briefly impact BWG and HNB, though confidence is very low. Ceilings are expected to begin lowering with sunset ahead of an approaching low pressure system. CIGs look to remain MVFR through the first half of the night and could see low-end MVFR in the early morning on Friday. A LLJ will strengthen over the region, bringing gusty winds and LLWS to the entire region through the overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 328 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures Possible Friday...

Fri, Jan 9th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 53 (1949) | 53 LEX 50 (1901) | 53

BWG 53 (1935) | 59

FFT 52 (1901) | 53

Record Maximum Temperatures Possible Friday...

Fri, Jan 9th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 67 (1949) | 68 LEX 70 (1930) | 67

BWG 70 (1930) | 71

FFT 70 (1930) | 68

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.