textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A mix of sun and clouds and milder temperatures are expected today.

* Fog possible across the area tonight into Tuesday morning.

* Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week before a cold front drops into the region Tuesday evening. Light rain likely, mainly across southern KY Tuesday night.

* Additional signals for precipitation Thursday night into Friday and next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 947 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

No significant forecast changes this morning. A BKN band of stratus around 6 kft stretches southeast across portions of Harrison, Nicholas, and Bourbon counties this morning, while other areas are sunny. These clouds will slowly drift east this morning due to SW flow and WAA near 850 mb.

An effective warm front stretches southeast through western KY this morning, with a tight temperature gradient noted between the arctic high over the Northeast and a warm sector over the Plains. A sfc low will continue to spin over western Ontario today, dragging a cold front southeast through portions of the Upper Midwest and central Plains. The main warm front will drift northeast with time, allowing southerly sfc low to develop from south to north today. WAA continues, and the boundary in the region combined with the lingering snow/ice cover will result in a large temperature gradient this afternoon. We expect a 20-25 degree spread in highs from Franklin KY to Madison IN (low to mid 40s north of I-64 and 60+ along the TN border).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Across the region this morning, satellite imagery reveals a couple bands of NW-to-SE oriented stratus. Model time heights and regional CIG obs suggest these clouds are associated with a fairly shallow layer of moisture around 850 mb, with moderate isentropic lift also noted in this layer. The main impact from these bands of clouds will be to hold temperatures a few degrees higher through sunrise, and then depending on how long they persist today, they would hold temperatures down by limiting sunshine and heating.

For the rest of the day today, quiet weather is expected across southern IN and central KY. We'll watch a mid-level vort lobe descend from the Ozarks this morning into the deep south by this evening, with upper ridging moving over the Ohio Valley later today in the wake of this disturbance. Sfc high pressure which has supported light east winds over the past day or so will shift farther to the east today, with a weak sfc pressure gradient leading to light and variable winds. There is a bit of uncertainty on high temperatures today due to questions about how long cloud cover lingers as well as the residual impacts of snow cover. Have gone with a pretty strong gradient in highs across the area, from low-to- mid 40s across the northern CWA to near 60 degrees along the KY/TN border.

There's an interesting setup for tonight as skies should be mostly clear by this evening with just a few passing high clouds expected through the overnight period. As a sfc cold front begins to approach the region from the NW, we should see light southerly flow develop, bringing milder air over a relatively cold (snow-covered in some areas) ground surface. This could lead to a kind of hybrid advection/radiation fog event, with winds initially being light but increasing later in the night. There is a greater than 50% chance in the 0Z HREF data of visibility less than 1/2SM across a fairly significant chunk of the area. For this forecast, we'll go ahead and add patchy/areas of fog mention for tonight, but won't completely tank the VIS for now given only modest confidence. Temperatures tonight should reach their nadir by around midnight before slowly climbing Tuesday morning. Lows should range from the upper 20s/low 30s in the northern CWA to the upper 30s/low 40s in the south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday - Thursday...

The sfc cold front referenced above is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Out ahead of the front, warm return flow should allow us to reach the warmest temperatures in nearly a month, though this may again be tempered depending on how long fog lingers Tuesday morning as well as how much lingering impact snow cover plays. Currently have highs ranging from the mid 50s north of I-64 to around 70 degrees along and south of the Cumberland Parkway. The moisture that comes with this front isn't expected to be particularly rich; however, there should be enough for rain showers to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Guidance has continued to trend farther south with where rain showers begin to develop, with most solutions now keeping areas along and north of the Ohio River completely dry with this system. Across south central KY, expected rain amounts have also trended down, and now range from a few hundredths to around 0.20" along the KY/TN border.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front is expected to sink into the TN Valley, with cooler and drier air behind the front. Temperatures will take a couple steps down for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs ranging from the low 40s (north) to the low 50s (south) and lows in the 20s and lower 30s. With high pressure remaining in control through at least Thursday afternoon, dry weather is increasingly likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday Night - Next Weekend...

For the end of the upcoming week, there's a fairly consistent signal in deep-layer NW flow over the Ohio Valley with upper ridging over the south central CONUS. The next potential for precipitation across the area would be associated with a subtle piece of upper-level energy that slides across the upper ridge and toward the area from the NW Thursday night into Friday morning. At this time, the moisture supply doesn't look particularly impressive; however, this system does bear watching as moisture would be overrunning a cold air mass, and wintry p-types would be possible across the area.

For Valentine's Day Weekend, forecast confidence decreases a bit as another split upper flow pattern sets up with a cutoff upper low ejecting across the desert southwest. Ahead of this disturbance, sfc high pressure should shift toward the Carolina coast, with low pressure setting up over the southern Plains. This should bring milder return flow back into the Ohio Valley, with temperatures likely to warm next weekend. While there is a fairly consistent signal in a low pressure system moving across the eastern US next weekend, the exact track and intensity of the system varies considerably in medium-range guidance. At this time, the GEFS supports a weaker, open-wave system that tracks closer to the Gulf Coast, while the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles favor a more wrapped- up, stronger system which tracks closer to the Ohio Valley. The latter solution would increase the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall amounts, so we'll have to keep an eye on this system through the upcoming week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the first six hours of this TAF period. After 00Z this evening, forecast confidence is lower than usual at this time range. Winds will remain fairly light and somewhat variable this afternoon and evening, with mostly sunny skies. Cirrus will spread overhead from the NW this evening.

Tonight, areas of fog still look possible due to quick radiational cooling and low-level moisture advection from the southwest. However, model guidance is still very much split on dense fog potential. Some guidance is notably warmer and slower with bringing in higher dewpoints, resulting in larger dewpoint depressions and less fog potential.

Low-level moisture should also tend to lift/develop into a low stratus layer Tue morning, with clouds likely lingering through the remainder of the forecast period. This occurs as SW low-level winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Marginal LLWS conditions develop 12-18Z Tue, but left it out of the TAF for now due to increasing sfc winds by that time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.