textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Saturday morning through Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Very cold temperatures return next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 417 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

As a weak cold front continues to push east across southern Indiana and central Kentucky, any remaining low stratus will get pushed east of the area. This will leave some high level clouds in the region as surface high pressure works in from the northwest. Northwest winds will bring cool winds, limiting highs to the upper 30s to mid 40s. This is slightly cooler than yesterday, but on the bright side, winds aren't expected to be as gusty.

Tonight, ahead of a much larger surface high, still in Canada, continued cold air advection will drop temperatures into the mid teens across southern Indiana to the mid 20s in southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 417 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Friday, high pressure over the region will keep weather through the Ohio Valley relatively uninteresting, but farther to the west, a closed upper low will sit off the Baja California coast with surface high pressure centered over the Northern Plains and Midwest with a surface low over Mexico. This will help to funnel Gulf moisture westward to collide with low level Pacific moisture, pooling lots of low level moisture. The upper trough flowing around the aforementioned low will funnel winds at and above the 700mb level east towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Saturday, the Lower Ohio Valley will sit under the right entrance region of an upper jet streak with the surface high still to the north, centered near the Great Lakes. This will help drive forcing for the slug of moisture being pushed into the region by upper flow.

The latest run of the Euro lags the GFS with the arrival of the the system on Saturday. With high pressure already in place, there could be some dry air to overcome. This could help delay the onset into the afternoon on Saturday. Most models have the heaviest axis of snowfall totals now along or near the Ohio River with the GFS keeping the axis slightly farther south, running through central Kentucky. Still anyone in southern Indiana or central Kentucky is still looking at substantial snow accumulations.

A continued concern and area to keep an eye on is with the warm nose. With mid-level flow being out of the south, depending on how strong and how far north the low level jet can reach will determine precipitation type. Currently, the strongest part of the jet looks to remain south of Kentucky, but ice, sleet, and even rain look possible across south central Kentucky. The warm nose will decide this.

Sunday night, a shortwave embedded in the upper trough will bring an end to the precipitation and replace the almost zonal flow with northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of surface high pressure, northern surface winds will ushering in cooler arctic air for next week. Expect highs to remain below freezing with nightly lows in the teens and single digits.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Current conditions are mostly clear with winds out of the northwest. VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening. Winds will be light and variable tonight with increasing high level clouds. For tomorrow, north winds increase to 10kts with some gusts possible. VFR conditions continue tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078- 081-082. IN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.