textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm days, cool nights, and dry weather will continue through Saturday.

* Chances for rain on Sunday remain uncertain, with PoPs around 50%, though there is high confidence (80%) in rainfall amounts being less than a half inch.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with showers and storms possible during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today through Saturday...

Mostly clear skies are observed on nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning, with an area of mid-level clouds noted just to the northwest of the area. These clouds are associated with very modest moisture transport ahead of a sfc cold front currently analyzed over the upper Midwest. Over the next 24 hours, this cold front will gradually work its way toward the area, although it is expected to fall apart as it makes its way into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight into Friday morning.

Today, ahead of the front, 5-10 mph SW breezes should pick up by the late morning hours, continuing through late afternoon. This combination of warm advection with mostly sunny skies today should allow temperatures to reach 1-2 degrees above persistence, with forecast highs ranging from 75-80.

This evening into tonight, the front will begin to make its way into southern IN, likely bringing a broken band of low-mid level clouds with it. While there is a 5% chance of a spotty shower in southern IN, moisture will be lacking and no impacts are expected. These clouds will keep temperatures milder along and north of I-64 tonight, with the typical ridge-valley splits being much more pronounced across southern KY where skies should remain mostly clear.

Friday, what's left of the front is expected to settle near the KY/TN border, with winds shifting around to the NE in its wake as high pressure moves across the lower Great Lakes. This should bring marginally cooler temperatures across the northern half of the CWA Friday afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 70s in the north to near 80 in southern KY.

Friday night into Saturday, a mid-level vort max associated with the remnants of TC Vance is expected to lift out of the southern Plains and into the mid-Miss. Valley. This disturbance will allow mid- and upper-level moisture to advect in from the SW, with clouds increasing during this period. Models are now in relatively good agreement that Saturday will remain dry across the area, as a fairly large amount of dry air below 700 mb will have to be overcome by modest moisture advection. With the increased cloud cover, temperatures should be slightly milder Friday night, with highs slightly less warm Saturday afternoon (though still above normal).

Saturday Night through Monday Night...

The disturbance referenced above is expected to slowly move across the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday, weakening as large-scale ridging develops across the central CONUS. There is still a fair amount of disagreement among model families only 3-4 days out, though there is increasing confidence that the impacts from this system will be minimal. The ECMWF and CMC ensembles tend toward an overall weaker system, with less moisture advection (only 1-1.2" PWATs) and very isolated showers and most locations remaining dry. On the other hand, the GFS and its ensembles have a stronger shortwave and richer moisture advection (1.3-1.4" PWATs), with much more widespread rain on Sunday. At this time, we're looking at roughly coin flip odds for rain this weekend, though there is high (80%) confidence that rainfall amounts will be less than 0.50".

With mostly cloudy skies and limiting nighttime cooling and daytime heating, diurnal ranges in temperatures will be suppressed for the second half of the weekend into Monday, though both highs and low temperatures will be above normal. Residual moisture may lead to isolated showers on Monday; however, precipitation coverage is expected to be limited by weak forcing.

Middle of Next Week...

A much more dynamic pattern returns by the middle of next week, bringing chances for rain, possibly thunderstorms, as well as the potential for fluctuating temperatures. A coupled polar and subtropical stream trough over the Pacific NW this weekend is expected to come out of phase as it crosses the Rockies early next week, causing an overall slowdown in the system. At this point, ensemble 500 mb height cluster analysis reveals several different camps of model solutions, resulting in different weather impacts to the area over the middle of next week. It is very likely that this disturbance will eject across the region some time in the Tuesday night-Thursday time period, bringing a wave of moisture as it passes along with cooler temperatures behind the system. Some of the stronger solutions could even bring a chance for strong storms into the area, as deep-layer shear would be seasonably strong. However, instability appears to be the main limiting factor, and AI/ML medium- range severe convection guidance isn't overly concerning at this time. Regardless, we'll continue to monitor this time period over the next several days for the potential for impactful rainfall amounts and strong storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 713 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Latest surface analysis reveals widespread high pressure, while current satellite shows an area of mid-level clouds with bases around 12kft moving eastward across southern Indiana. VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF cycle. Light winds are expected across area terminals through mid-morning. After sunrise, winds will veer to the SW and increase to 6-10 kt for the late morning and early afternoon hours, with a few wind gusts to around 15 kt possible at SDF and LEX.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.