textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Patchy fog will be possible early Wednesday morning.

* Dry and slightly cooler through mid to late week. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The cold front has exited Kentucky to the south at this hour. Dew points have dropped, which is bringing some relief to the hot and humid conditions from today. Patchy fog will be possible early Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The relief from this most recent round of heat and oppressive humidity is finally here as a cold front extending from a NE CONUS surface low is moving southward over central Kentucky. The change in conditions will not be immediate this afternoon and evening as places behind the front are still experiencing dew points in the mid-to-upper 70s and heat indices in the upper 90s/low 100s. Dew points will slowly lower into the 60s this evening and tonight, with overnight temperatures following suit with low in the mid-to- upper 60s.

A few showers and an isolated storm have developed along the cold front near and east of I-75, and will move southward with the front. Wile there is ample instability out ahead of the front (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg), the wind shear profile is not very favorable with the core of the low and mid-level jet further eastward in eastern Kentucky. A few additional showers and a storm or two can still develop later this afternoon and evening, but the concern for strong- to-severe storms is very low for us.

Surface high pressure will build in over the Midwest and Ohio Valley starting tonight, lasting through the end of the workweek. Surface winds will quickly decrease this evening, remaining fairly calm and out of the north through Thursday. With the calm winds in place tonight, there is the potential for light patchy fog to develop, especially east of I-65. The surface high will also keep us dry, making for a nice stretch of weather over the next few days. Afternoon highs will be around the low-to-mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures climbing slightly higher into the mid-to- upper 80s on Friday. Overnight temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday night, will be pleasant with lows in the low 60s and some isolated locations in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A shortwave trough moving over the western/central CONUS upper ridge makes its way towards our region from the northwest by Friday night. The upper ridge becomes more amplified while the shortwave trough/eastern CONUS upper trough becomes closed off over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This feature will linger through the remainder of the forecast period, providing increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms. Rainfall from this system will be modest, with LREF precipitation accumulations from Friday night through Tuesday currently are in the 0.9-1.3" range. Cloud cover from the low should keep temperatures slightly below average to start August, with afternoon highs slowly increasing from the low 80s on Saturday to the mid-to-upper 80s on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are likely throughout much of this TAF period. Patchy fog is expected 08-12Z Wednesday, which appears most likely to impact HNB and RGA with brief IFR/MVFR conditions. Brief fog is also possible at BWG and LEX, but confidence is a bit lower at those terminals. A light 5 kt northerly wind is expected through the period, with winds briefly increasing to 6-10 kts this afternoon during peak mixing. SCT cu between 3-5 kft will also be possible this afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.