textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cloudy skies are expected this morning and today with some light rain showers this morning.

* Potential wintry system tonight into Monday that could bring a messy mix of precipitation types to portions of southern Indiana, north-central, and east-central Kentucky. Impacts to the Monday morning commute are possible.

* Additional systems bring rain and warmer temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, with steady rain favored in our northernmost counties.

* Highs remain well above normal through the end of the week along with daily rain chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Early morning satellite imagery showing mostly cloudy skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Surface analysis shows our weak frontal boundary located along the WK/BG Parkway. To the north of the boundary, winds have shifted to the north and will eventually shift more to the northeast. On the south side of the front, winds are mostly southwest. Temperatures have fallen behind the front with mid-upper 40s being reported over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. South of the front, temperatures were still the in lower 50s in the lower valley locations, with mid-upper 50s elsewhere. Area radars show a few bands of showers moving eastward through the region. The first was located over southern IN, mainly just north of the I-64 corridor. A second area of scattered showers was moving east across central Kentucky. Model soundings show a bit of low-level dry air which is keeping most of the precipitation in the form of virga. However, a few spots have picked up some light amounts of precipitation.

For the remainder of the overnight period, the aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to sag southward. Scattered rain showers will continue to move east across the region with very light QPF amounts. Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 30s over southern Indiana with lower-mid 40s over much of Kentucky.

For today, the surface frontal boundary will continue to push southward as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Guidance continues to show dry conditions across the region. With the frontal boundary in the area, a rather strong gradient of temperatures will be noted across the region. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 40s to around 50 across southern Indiana and into the northern part of Kentucky north of the Parkways. To the south of the Parkways, highs will top out in the mid-upper 50s with some 60 degree readings south of the Cumberland Parkway.

Moving into Sunday Night and Monday, the region will be situated between a strong surface high pressure cell over the Great Lakes with the residual frontal boundary down across southern Kentucky. Surface winds will be out of the northeast which will attempt to advect some cold/dry air into the region Sunday night. To the west of the region, an approaching mid-level perturbation will move toward the region in the overnight period. As this occurs, low- level warm advection pattern will develop across western TN and western KY gradually spreading northeast through the overnight period. Combination of low-level warm advection along with isentropic lift and theta-e advection should result in a gradual buildup in precipitation production across western KY early in the overnight period spreading eastward into central KY toward dawn Monday and continuing into daytime hours. The combination of the low-level northeasterly cold flow combined with the warm advection aloft will lead to an inversion aloft resulting in a mixed wintry scenario for portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky Monday morning.

Despite being 24-30 hours out from this event, there continues to be quite the spread in the near term guidance with precipitation types and potential impacts. In general, the models do suggest that a wintry mix of precipitation will be possible along and northeast of a line from roughly Hawesville to Elizabethtown over to near Richmond. To the south of that line, low-level temperatures look to be warm enough for a cold rain.

Model differences continue to show up here with the lower-resolution models showing more saturated low-level atmosphere with a stronger warm advection pattern and in particular a stronger warm nose, resulting in wintry precipitation staying more to the north of the I- 64 corridor. However, the higher resolution mesoscale model soundings show a stronger influx of dry/cold low-level air into the region prior to precipitation arriving. This results in a stronger wetbulbing effect resulting in higher amounts of mixed precipitation production. The key/crux of this forecast will depend on how much cold/dry air will advect in and how strong will the warming aloft will be. Taking all the model data into a multi-model consensus here, initial precipitation will likely start off as light rain, but as stronger lift develops and precipitation becomes heavier, a change over to a mix of snow/sleet looks increasingly likely over much of southern Indiana and down into portions of north-central and east-central KY. Again, depending on the warm nose strength, some freezing rain could occur as well, especially the southern edge of the wintry mix changeover line. The best chances of a wet/slushy accumulation still look to be along/north of a line from Jasper to Louisville over toward the Lexington area. Just to the south of those locations, a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix remains possible. Slushy snow accumulations of a coating to an inch are possible along/north of the I-64 corridor with some light icing accumulations possible.

Impacts to the morning commute are possible across the region. Current road temperatures are in the upper 40s to the lower-mid 50s across the region given the recent warmth. Those temperatures are likely to fall a bit, but will lag behind air temperatures. Road surfaces will likely see temps in the upper 30s which may mitigate impacts. However, heavy wintry precipitation rates can easily overcome those milder road temps. The most impactful time for wintry weather will be between 400-1000 AM EST Monday morning. Given the continued model spread and uncertainty in wintry p-type and even the spread in surface temperatures, no headlines will be issued at this time. However, we will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential impacts.

The impacts across the region will be rather brief as low-level warm advection will increase through the morning and this will send temperatures warming above freezing by late morning. Most model solutions show plain rain across the region by late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 40s over southern Indiana to the mid-upper 40s over north-central and east-central Kentucky. South of the WK/BG Parkways, highs in the low-mid 50s look reasonable. Lows Monday night will range from the lower 40s over southern Indiana to the mid- upper 40s over Kentucky.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

===== Tuesday - Thursday =====

By Tuesday morning, the overall synoptic pattern won't change much, with more zonal flow draped over the area aloft and a surface boundary slowly drifting to our north. The whole area will be south of this boundary by midday, and with a surface high situated over the deep south, temperatures will be much warmer Tuesday afternoon in the mid 60s to low 70s in our southern areas. Despite the warmer temperatures, the surface boundary will still be close enough to our north to act as a roadway for isentropic lift and WAA in low to mid levels providing impulses of moisture. A band of rain oriented west to east with light to moderate rainfall rates may settle over our northern areas north of the Ohio along and just south of the boundary. With this band of eastward moving steady rain or rain showers settling over the same areas, some decent rainfall totals are possible in our far northern counties in the range of 0.5" - 1.0" with all day rain chances. Total QPF is lower in central/southern KY, with recent guidance keeping rainfall totals below 0.25" in areas south of the Bluegrass. For all areas though, SW flow will dominate the entire day as the surface boundary stays just to our north, with overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 in southern areas.

WAA will continue into Wednesday as well, along with the continued chance of a few showers in the morning, being more prevalent in northern areas, with southern places south of the Bluegrass remaining mostly dry. As the day progresses though, a weak trough originally forming off the US West Coast will move east into the Ohio Valley, reinforcing our SW flow at mid and surface levels. Guidance here starts to split with the strength and timing of this incoming trough. Depending on its strength, it could force the surface boundary well to our north with drier conditions and warmer temperatures but if the trough is too weak, the surface boundary will stick around for another day, providing more opportunity for passing showers Wednesday morning, especially in northern areas. Additionally, the timing of this trough is still being determined, with guidance split over a Wednesday afternoon setup with possible storms, or a generally dry afternoon with the trough not moving in until later Thursday. Regardless, spotty showers are possible with much warmer highs in the low to upper 70s. In fact, SW flow may be enough to cause well above normal low temperatures heading into Thursday morning, in the upper 50s and low 60s.

For the rest of the week, continual mid and upper level troughing draped over the northern plains and Great Lakes will provide a roadway for multiple shortwaves to travel through our area and provide multiple chances of rain. General southwest flow is favored at the surface, meaning our highs and lows should remain above normal for the rest of the week. As mentioned in previous AFDs, the CPC has issued guidance indicating a southeast ridge will keep temperatures well above normal even through the 8-14 day outlook. In addition with daily rain chances, Spring-like weather seems to be here to stay for awhile.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 623 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Surface cold front continues to drift slowly southward through Kentucky this morning. Earlier scattered showers continue to move off to the east of the region. VFR conditions are expected across the region today with just high clouds spilling across the region. Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 8-10kts. Later tonight, precipitation will start to move into the region from the west, likely after 02/07-08Z. Rain showers are expected at BWG and RGA. At HNB/SDF/LEX, initial precipitation will likely start off as rain, but as intensity picks up, a switch to a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain is possible after 02/10Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.