textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* We begin a general warming trend now until the middle of next week.

* Low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

* Wind gusts of 20-25 MPH possible in far northwestern communities tomorrow morning before winds generally calm everywhere after 12 Noon EDT.

* Chance for showers (30-40%) and a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms Friday afternoon - Friday night across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Currently, conditions are pleasant, calm, and mostly clear as lower level ridging keeps us dry today. Southerly flow this afternoon will warm temperatures into the upper 60s in the north to mid 70s closer to the TN border. An upper level shortwave trough will move in some high level cirrus clouds this afternoon, though will have little impact to surface conditions. Winds will be light to start but heading into the evening and overnight hours, a LLJ will move in from the northwest. Despite some recent CAM guidance, the surface level should decouple from higher wind gusts not far above the surface. Any gusty winds should be more prevalent in our northwestern communities north of the Ohio after the sun rises Thursday morning. Depending on how quickly mixing with the LLJ occurs will dictate how high wind gusts can be before noon tomorrow. Wind gusts could gust up to 30-35 MPH mainly before 11 AM in our northwestern most counties (30-50% chance of this in those areas). For now, we're forecasting gusts north and west of Louisville in the 20-25 MPH range. Morning lows will be milder in the upper 40s to low 50s with a SSW flow.

Eventually, the low level jet will lift north out of our area and sunny skies with light southwesterly winds return Thursday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will begin a series of several days of dominance over our weather from here on out. As a result, highs on Thursday will be a little warmer, in the low to upper 70s. Along with sunny skies, Thursday will be another pleasant weather day. Weather remains calm with lows in the low 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A general warming trend will continue into the weekend as that surface ridge stubbornly parks itself over the deep southeast. On Friday morning, a low pressure well to our north will try to push in a cold front into southern IN/central KY by the afternoon hours. Highs on Friday will be in the low to upper 70s, with isolated 80s closest to the TN border in the southwest. As the cold front approaches, a lack of frontogenesis, weak upper level support, and the strong ridge to the southeast will force the front to stall Friday night somewhere over central KY draped west to east. Clouds will be increasing from the north, meaning a few showers or storms are possible (30-40% chance of rain). However, with weak lift and CAPE values likely (90%) remaining below 200 J/kg, mostly showers will occur along the front. Not everyone will see rain though, with southern areas near TN remaining dry. Those that will see rain Friday evening across north-central KY and southern IN will likely (70-80%) see anywhere from just 0.1 - 0.25" inches of rain.

Some showers may linger into early Saturday morning with clouds sticking around most of the day it seems. High temperatures will vary north to south according to the position of the stalled out cold front Saturday with upper 60s and low 70s across our IN counties and upper 70s to the south near TN. An upstream mid level ridge will begin to sweep out the cloudy weather later Saturday and especially into Sunday, boosting high temperatures and southerly flow into the area.

By Sunday and heading into early next week, the approaching ridge will deepen from low to mid levels, potentially boosting high temperatures into the low to upper 80s. Can't say for sure if this would be considered record breaking heat, but will definitely be an anomalously warm day. The mid level pattern begins to shift on Monday as a trough from the west approaches. Confidence is low on any rainfall on Monday, though warmer than normal temperatures will continue through at least Tuesday. There is some signal for storms Tuesday afternoon with hot afternoons and could be the best chance of rain we've had in a while though this is several days away and will need to be monitored for any severe potential. Warm trend continues beyond Tuesday next week so you can ditch the jacket then!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the entire TAF period with light SE winds ongoing. Clouds near or above 25 kft will increase this afternoon and linger through the overnight. With a high pressure in place, no precipitation will fall this period. The main concern is a low-level jet approaching from the west. This jet will be weakening as it approaches in the early morning hours, with occasional 20-25 MPH gusts possible after sunrise. LLWS is expected below 1,000 ft AGL in the morning though this will pull to the north and out of the area by noon eastern time. WInd shear is mainly a concern for SDF and HNB areas. VFR conditions linger into tomorrow afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.