textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain chances return this evening and last through midday Thursday. Some could see light snow with the system Thursday morning with no impacts expected.

* Warmer and sunnier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Today, a weak cold front slowly drops south through southern Indiana and central Kentucky, providing overcast skies for most of the day. Some in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will likely see the sun, but most south of Interstate 64 will remain mostly cloudy. Model soundings continue to show dry low levels, so even with rain falling from the clouds at times, it may not reach the ground. Some sprinkles to light showers are possible, but not expecting anything measurable. Southwest to west winds will become gusty again this afternoon. WAA will likely push temperatures into the low to mid 50s with some low 60s possible near Bowling Green.

This evening into tonight, low level moisture from the Gulf pushes north into south central Kentucky over the cold front, resulting in showers pushing northward towards the Ohio River, but expecting the heaviest rain to remain south of Louisville and Lexington. There could be dry periods, mainly to the west, before a shortwave riding on northwest flow arrives Thursday morning brings additional showers over southern Indiana. As the shortwave pushes quickly to the southeast, rain quickly ends. As with the last several forecasts, overall amounts continue to come down with amounts ranging from a few hundreths in parts of southern Indiana to between 0.5-0.7" in the Clinton County area of Kentucky. Areas in southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky could see some light snow showers or a mix of rain and show showers with this system Thursday morning. Amounts will be light with no impacts expected with temperatures climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Friday and Saturday, surface high pressure ahead of an approaching cold front will remain over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep skies clear with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s with Saturday being the warmer day. While it's nice here, a strong surface low passes east, north of the Great Lakes, but it's trailing cold front will drop south into the CWA Saturday night. This could bring some very light isolated showers to the region with the best chances being over southern Indiana.

Sunday into early next week, a consistent signal continues to have another system(s) develop to our west and slide east affecting parts of the CWA. Sunday appears mostly dry with a wave bringing rain and snow through the region Sunday night through Monday morning. Looks like the CWA sits mostly on the rain side of the line with snow farther north. There is a dry period for the rest of Monday before a second system brings more rain Monday night through Tuesday. With that said, the details are likely to change with every forecast this far out. The forecast will carry low PoPs for this whole time period due to the uncertainty. With a front sitting near the region, temperatures will also keep some uncertainty with the current forecast keeping southern Indiana in the mid 40s for highs and southern Kentucky in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 705 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 0z. After 0z, some guidance has showers moving over area TAF sites, but with very dry low levels, believe it will take extra time for rain to reach the ground at SDF, HNB, LEX, and RGA. This should also help delay lowering ceilings. The rain is expected to impact BWG first. Around 3-4z, ceilings are expected to fall below VFR levels at BWG. Then RGA by around 5-6z. BWG will likely fall to at least IFR levels later in the night. LEX and RGA may only see MVFR levels, and SDF and HNB could stay in VFR to MVFR levels. Visibilities could be reduced during heavier rain rates, but will likely remain VFR due to the dry conditions.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.