textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cloudy conditions continue this afternoon with low clouds and areas of fog expected tonight.

* Active weather pattern will bring additional rainfall to the area Thursday through Saturday, though flooding and severe weather are not expected at this time.

* The late weekend and into early next week will see drier conditions, before another chance for rain arrives by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Widespread cloudiness continues across much of the region with areas of drizzle and fog/mist. Some clearing has made it into portions of southeastern KY from Lake Cumberland eastward to KY/VA border. Under the clouds, temperatures ranged from the lower-middle 40s over northern Kentucky with the northern half of Kentucky seeing readings generally around 50. Warmer air was confined to areas along and south of the Cumberland Parkway where readings were in the lower 60s. In the Lake Cumberland region along the KY/TN border, temperatures were in the upper 60s to near 70.

No significant weather is expected through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Widespread cloudiness is expected to continue with clouds likely thickening back up after sunset. Areas of drizzle will continue and while fog/mist may clear up later this afternoon, the fog/mist will make a come back later this evening. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s this evening.

Overnight, low clouds are expected to hang tough across the region. If low cloudiness remains rather thick, then areas of fog/mist will also be possible. However, if the low clouds break up and we get a bit more clearing, then fog will become more dominant and areas of dense fog will be possible. Lows tonight will range from the lower- middle 40s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Lows across southern Kentucky look to drop into the upper 40s.

For Thursday, cloudy skies are expected with an initial dry period of weather during the morning hours. Stalled out frontal boundary to the south will lift northward during the day as an effective warm front. This will allow temps to warm into the upper 50s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. South of the Parkways, temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 60s, with mid-upper 60s being possible south of the Cumberland Parkway. A weak perturbation aloft will move into the region from the west during the afternoon, leading to a gradual uptick in rain showers from west to east into the evening hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...

Moving into Thursday evening, widespread rain showers should be in progress by evening as the surface warm front pushes northward across the region. Still seeing a bit of variance in how far north this frontal boundary gets. The GFS/GEM push the warm front well into Indiana while the Euro keeps it more suppressed and southward. The frontal position will play a large role in where the QPF axis sets up. Given the spread in the warm frontal position, QPF spread remains quite high in the model solutions with the GFS/GEM keeping rainfall amounts through Saturday under an inch. On the other hand, the Euro is a bit more wetter with a solid 1-1.5 inches.

In terms of thunderstorm potential, mid-level wave will approach the region Friday but will be de-amplifying in time. Just ahead of this feature, we'll see a fetch of better moisture into the region. Soundings suggest enough buoyancy should be in place to produce at least some scattered thunderstorms as a weak cold front approaches from the west. As the day wears on, the upper level support will get further displaced north/east of the region and this looks to limit severe potential.

Surface low and cold front will push through the region Friday evening and into Saturday with precipitation ending from west to east. Saturday morning would have the best rain chances, with drier conditions arriving by afternoon.

Highs Friday will be in the mid-upper 60s across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Southern KY will see upper 60s to lower 70s for highs. Cooler weather is expected for Saturday with highs mainly in the upper 50s to around 60 across southern IN and northern Kentucky, with lower-mid 60s across southern KY.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Upper ridging is expected to build into the region from the west on Sunday and continue into early Monday. This should result in dry conditions for Sunday with highs in the lower 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s. Moving into the Monday-Wednesday time frame, an upper level low will move from the Plains and then begin to open up as it heads into the Great Lakes. At the surface, it appears we'll have a cutter system moving from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes with a cold front getting dragged across the Ohio Valley. Still seeing the typical spread in the guidance here with the GFS being the most progressive allowing precip to re-enter the region as early as Monday, while the GEM/Euro hold it off until at least Monday night. Unsettled weather looks likely for Tuesday and perhaps lingering into Wednesday. Some strong storms may be able to develop ahead of the sweeping cold front if enough instability can develop. Should see an increasing pressure gradient as well, leading to at least breezy conditions across the region. Highs Monday/Tuesday look to warm into the lower 60s, but highs on Wednesday will be a bit cooler with mid-upper 50s expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low level moisture remains trapped underneath a stout inversion, which is leading to persistent low cigs and vis across the region. We'll continue to see impacts at all terminals through the overnight, with IFR or LIFR cigs expected, along with patchy DZ and dense fog. We should begin to see gradual improvements to cigs after sunrise tomorrow, with most terminals improving to MVFR for a short time. Surface boundary stalled out south of the KY/TN border looks to lift northward on Thursday bringing a southerly flow back to the region with improving cigs and vis to VFR by the afternoon hours. However, -RA chances will increase again for the end of the forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.