textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM EST this morning for temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

* The first part of the workweek will be dry, with chilly mornings in the 30s/low 40s and mild afternoons in the 60s.

* Rain chances return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves through the region, though it is not expected to be a big rain maker.

* There is an outside chance for our first snow flurries of the season if enough moisture sticks around the area late Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Now through Tuesday Night...

Surface high pressure and northwesterly upper-level flow continue to prevail across the region this morning. With relatively calm winds and clear skies, decent radiational cooling will allow for daybreak conditions to be rather chilly. While it will not be as cold as yesterday, a Frost Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM EST for temperatures in the low to mid 30s. River valley fog is expected to develop over the next few hours, quickly dissipating after sunrise.

The persisting surface and upper air regimes will result in near normal temperatures and dry conditions. A return to widespread highs in the 60s comes this afternoon, continuing into Tuesday. There is the potential for some locations to reach 70 Tuesday afternoon, with the highest likelihood in west central Kentucky (40-60% chance per latest REFS). Overnight lows will still be on the colder side, ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday night. Chances for frost will decrease after this morning, with the latest REFS, NBM, and LREF outputting less than 15% chances for temperatures below 35.

By Tuesday afternoon, the upper-level pattern briefly shifts to more of a zonal regime. In addition, a weak shortwave will move eastward and skirt by just off to our south. Even if the wave did shift its trajectory northward, the limited moisture in place would prevent any appreciable precipitation from occurring over us.

Wednesday through Sunday...

The overall synoptic pattern begins to shift considerably by the middle portions of the work week. As a shortwave over the northern Plains swigs southeastward, the subtropical and polar jets will begin to interact and phase with each other. The combination of these features will result in cyclogenesis and the formation of a robust low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.

Chances for precipitation will return by late Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front from the low begins to push through the area. The timing, placement, and progression of the shortwave and the phasing of the subtropical and polar jets will play an important role as to how much precipitation we get. Another factor in this will be the limited moisture return ahead of the system moving thorugh. While a narrow swath of PW values of 0.6-0.75" (~75th percentile climatologically) will help us get some accumulations, ensemble guidance is only outputting less than 0.5" through Friday across the area.

Once the cold front passes through, a cold airmass will fill in from behind, setting up a cool end to the work week, as well as the weekend. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be in the 50s, dropping to the mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday. Temperatures Friday morning will be near or just above freezing, with a return to widespread below freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning. If enough post-frontal moisture sticks around the area, there is the chance for some snow flurries late Thursday into Friday, especially along and east of the I-75 corridor. A few of the LREF members do pick up on light snowfall, so we will continue to see how things trend in the guidance as the week progresses. In addition to the cold air filling in behind the front, surface high pressure will build in overhead, resulting in dry conditions going into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the exception of some patchy fog development near BWG and HNB. Any fog that does develop will quickly dissipate after sunrise, with mostly clear skies following. Winds will be generally light and out of the SW, peaking at aorund 4-6 kt during the afternoon hours Monday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.