textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mainly dry and unseasonably warm through the end of the week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal (upper 70s to low 80s)

* The best chances for showers and storms will come Friday into early Saturday.

* Keeping an eye on early next week for the potential of strong storms on Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A line of showers and isolated elevated convection associated with a 40-45kt LLJ is positioned across southern IN right along our northern CWA border. This activity will slowly weaken through the early morning hours but some may linger into daybreak across our far northeast CWA and clip into portions of the Bluegrass later on today. This will bring a few clouds this morning along and north of the I-64 corridor but most will continue to see mainly clear skies across the area.

A weak sfc boundary will stay mainly to our north across northern and central IN today. Expect skies to clear out later this morning and into the afternoon. The LLJ is expected to weaken but linger over the area into the afternoon and be around 20-25kts. With clearing expected this afternoon, the setup is there for another day of good mixing resulting in another afternoon with gusty winds out of the southwest between 20-25 mph. We could also see dewpoints drop due to drier air also mixing to the surface with minimum RH values into the mid/upper 20s and possibly some isolated low 20s. With the current dry condition and gusty winds, another day of slightly elevated fire weather. It will also be unseasonably warm with highs into the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. Sensible weather will remain clear and quiet as we go into the evening and overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Thursday - Thursday Night...

Upper ridge axis will remain over the area for Thursday with sfc high pressure over the southeastern CONUS. Mostly sunny skies and a southerly flow will continue to keep temperatures unseasonably warm, or about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs across most if not all of our CWA will be in the 80s.

Friday - Sunday Night...

Upper pattern starts to flatten out as we go into the end of the week and into the weekend. This is our next best chance of seeing widespread precipitation across the area. Closed upper low along with a deepening sfc low will be positioned along the Canadian/CONUS border around MT/ND. Associated cold front will be positioned to our west over the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley. Dry airmass will be in place for the start of the day Friday with a weakened upper ridge axis still over the Ohio Valley. This will likely delay the start of any shower/storm activity. As the boundary gets closer, more moisture will stream ahead and models are hinting at a couple hundreds J/kg of SBCAPE in the afternoon. This might be enough for showers and some gusty thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Timing between the deterministic models remains somewhat in question but the upper pattern flattens out and becomes more zonal as we go into the weekend. The trend is that Saturday could end up being a bit drier as weak ridging builds in late Saturday into Sunday. This will continue to keep temperatures above normal with highs ranging from the mid/upper 70s to the low 80s.

Early Next Week...

We continue to keep a watchful eye on the start of next week for the potential setup for strong to severe weather on Monday. A sfc low is expected to track out of the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes Sunday Night into Monday. As a weak shortwave trough associated with the closed low over south central Canada moves over the Hudson Bay. The ECMWF continues to show a strong 500mb jet streak working into the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon/evening placing central KY and southern IN in the right front entrance region along with a stout LLJ. The GFS on the other hand is a bit less bullish with the upper air features and is further south with the placement of the sfc low. If the ECMWF solution plays out, this would be a good setup for potential severe storms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion the SPC has portion of our CWA in a 15 percent risk for severe weather on Day 7. This AFD will be published before the new extended outlook is released by the SPC. While a lot can change between now and then, it is definitely worth noting and keeping an eye on with each forecast update.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 101 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Mid to high level clouds are moving east out of the area currently leaving clear skies for most sites. Wind gusts will range in the low 20kts until about 23z. Skies will remain clear overnight into tomorrow with light SSW winds. High level clouds will start to move back into the region at the end of the forecast period. Winds will remain SSW tomorrow with slightly greater (10-15kts) winds in the west part of the CWA as the frontal boundary starts to approach the area.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.