textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Very dry air this afternoon and 10-20 mph winds from the northwest.

* Chilly start Monday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

* Unsettled weather next week resulting in multiples waves of rain Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Very dry high pressure system building into the region today will be centered over us tonight, with light and variable winds as well as mostly clear skies. This combination should bring a chilly night, with lows some 15-20 degrees lower than this morning's readings. Monday, we should start seeing increasing mid-level clouds filter into the region, as the high shifts east and a warm front develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday Night-Tuesday Night

Moisture will steadily increase as a low-level jet begins to develop early Tuesday morning. Given the developing warm front mentioned above, expect some good isentropic lift to bring widespread rain chances. Tuesday morning an upper trough crossing the Midwest should help to enhance lift in the mid and upper levels as well, so cannot rule out some rumbles of thunder within those rains. The speed of that shortwave will determine if rains can linger into the Tuesday night time frame. For now, a majority of the guidance is showing that we'll have to keep in likely to categorical rain chances. This makes sense with the surface frontal boundary lingering somewhere in our vicinity.

Wednesday-Thursday

East/west-oriented, quasi-stationary boundary will stay in the vicinity. Broad ridge over the Gulf Coast will be somewhat flat over the Ohio Valley...so any additional shortwaves coming downstream of a deep upper low over the SW US could spark additional showers and storms in our region. Temperatures generally will be well above normal, though our southern Indiana counties could a little cooler numbers, depending on the exact location of that boundary.

Thursday Afternoon-Friday Night

That deep upper low, or at least a significant piece of it, will move into the Central Plains Thursday night. There's still considerable spread on the details of this system affects our region...both in timing and strength. What we know is that there will be moisture in place across the region and that residual boundary somewhere in the area to help force rains/storm chances. So likely range PoP's (60-70%) from NBM looks good, at least for rain chances, until we can get more certainty in the timing of that low's movement. Previous NBM thunder chances were in the 20-30% range, but this run backed off quite a bit...basically to "silent" 10% or less pops. Think this is because of the slightly slower timing in the upper energy coming across as well as widespread cloud coverage in this period. Would not be surprised to see this thrown back in at some point, as focus becomes clearer on timing of features.

00Z ECMWF Ensembles and NAEFS show mean precipitable waters above the 90th percentile for most if not all of this period...so we'll have to watch rainfall forecasts over the coming days to see if any flood threats need to be advertised.

Saturday-Sunday

With the models showing a chance to split some of that SW US upper level low energy into a couple of waves, we can't rule out additional rain chances over the weekend. 12Z GFS came in noticeably slower for the upper low pushing through here. For now, we can go with lower PoPs, to account for that uncertainty. Temperatures near climo seem reasonable as well, for the same reason.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Winds are beginning to relax as the sun is setting this evening. Winds will be mostly light and variable and conditions VFR through this TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.