textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues for the weekend and into next week. Temperatures begin to increase over the weekend and especially into next week, with low to mid-90s possible.

* Major Heat Risk possible next week due to the multi-day duration of hot temperatures and little overnight relief. Anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration will be susceptible to heat illness.

* A few shower and storm chances may return by late week, but current confidence is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Partly clear skies through the day today with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. High level clouds will linger into the overnight hours and clear by sunrise. Surface high pressure will remain in place keeping it dry and warm for the day tomorrow as well. Temperatures will continue to build tomorrow with highs expected to reach the low 90s. Areas along and west of I65 will have the best chance of exceeding 90 tomorrow. Dewpoints will likely stay below 70, therefore keeping the humidity relatively low.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Monday through Thursday Night...

Moving into the new work week, a prolonged streak of dry and hot weather is expected as an impressive 594 dm upper ridge axis shifts eastward over the Ohio Valley. Mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights are expected through Thursday. Max temperatures will likely continue to increase through the week. Overall, still think that the NBM blend is likely too aggressive over parts of the region. In general, the highest temperatures will be over our western/southwestern sections (mainly west of I-65 and south of the WK Parkway) with slightly lower highs across the Bluegrass where recent heavy rainfalls have left the vegetative cover in better shape and more green. Across the I-65 corridor and points west/southwest, webcams show decent vegetative stress showing up from warm/dry conditions.

Highs on Monday will likely be in the lower 90s in areas west of I- 65 with upper 80s and lower 90s over the Bluegrass. We'll see temps rise 1-2 deg/day in this pattern for Tuesday/Wednesday with highs of 93-98 across the west, with 90-95 in the east. Similar temperatures are expected on Thursday with 94-99 in the west/southwest and 90-95 in the east. Dewpoints next week will mainly be in the 60s though they may increase to the upper 60s by late week. We're likely to see good mixing during the afternoon resulting in dry air mixdown. Despite this, we'll see afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. Latest LREF probs show 30-40% chances of exceeding 100F for heat indices across our southwest on Tuesday. By Wednesday/Thursday, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 100F for heat indices in areas west of I-65, but this increases to >70% in the Bowling Green area. We will not see much relief at night as overnight lows will only cool into the lower 70s, but may remain in the upper 70s to around 80 in the urban corridors.

Based on the latest LREF probs, we're not likely to reach heat advisory criteria next week (3h or more of 105F). However, the duration of this event and subsequent impacts may require the issuance of Heat Advisories in later forecast packages.

Friday and Saturday...

Toward the end of the week, the latest data continues to suggest that the upper level ridge will begin to flatten and retrograde slightly westward. A back door frontal boundary may try and attempt to drop south into the region. In addition, we'll see several perturbations that will be rotating around the periphery of the ridge axis and may bring a chance of showers/storms mainly to our eastern areas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for all sites. High to mid level cumulus clouds are developing across the area currently. These are expected to mostly clear by sunset and through the night. Winds will remain light and variable tonight and become southwesterly by tommorow morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.