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KEY MESSAGES

* Strong southwest winds are expected today. Widespread wind gusts greater than 35 mph are expected, with 40 to 50 mph wind gusts likely within the Wind Advisory.

* Strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night and Monday morning. Strong gradient winds are expected ahead and behind the front. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a wind damage threat.

* Much colder conditions are expected for much of early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Morning surface analysis shows a sub-990 mb low pressure centered over the upper Midwest, with sfc high pressure that moved across the area on Thursday now pushing into the deep south. Scattered to broken mid- and high-level clouds have moved over the region ahead of this system, with regional composite reflectivity showing light returns moving into the area from the north. However, ACARS soundings continue to show a stout layer of dry air below 700 mb, which should keep any precipitation aloft from reaching the ground.

This morning, the strong sfc low will push east across the Great Lakes, with a sfc cold front approaching the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, HREF mean 850 mb winds increase to 60-65 kt, especially from our area off to the north and east. While continued mid- and upper-level cloud cover will limit boundary layer mixing somewhat, we're still on track for strong SW winds across the area today. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, there is a 3-6 hour window from mid- morning through early afternoon where 40-45 mph wind gusts will be especially favored within the advisory area. Would also expect if there is any clearing, localized 50 mph wind gusts will be possible. With this forecast issuance, wanted to expand the wind advisory by a row of counties to the south, as the higher terrain from Hardin to Casey County has a 50-60% chance of exceeding 40 mph gusts per latest NBM probabilistic guidance. Across south central KY, it will still be windy today, with peak wind gusts more on the order of 30- 40 mph. We'll issue an SPS to advertise the gusty wind threat in these areas.

Outside of the windy conditions, today should be a dry day with temperatures expected to be milder than on Thursday. As these pre- frontal setups tend to overperform temperature guidance, have nudged highs up by a degree or two, with most areas expected to top out in the low-to-mid 60s.

As the strong sfc low quickly lifts to the northeast tonight, the remnants of the sfc cold front are expected to sink into TN by Saturday morning. This should allow for weak cold advection into the area as winds shift around to the W/NW behind the front. Temperatures should fall into the 30s and low 40s tonight with mostly clear skies expected.

Tomorrow, sfc high pressure should be over Ohio in the morning before lifting to the northeast through the day. The upper-level pattern will become more zonal across the central and eastern CONUS as our next system begins to descend into the northern Plains by Saturday night. The remnants of the front over TN will start to lift back to the north across KY by tomorrow afternoon, with winds veering from easterly to southerly across the front. With the front draped over the region, we should see a reasonably strong gradient in temperatures, with highs Saturday ranging from near 60 in southern IN and northern KY to near 70 across southern KY. Dry weather will continue Saturday into Saturday night, with southerly winds increasing as we head into Sunday morning. This should keep temperatures milder Saturday night, with lows expected to range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s (from north to south) across the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sunday through Monday Night...

Saturday night into Sunday, an upper-level disturbance is expected to amplify over the Great Plains as a sfc low develops over northern NE before moving east along the I-80 corridor. As sfc pressures and heights aloft fall quickly to the NW of the region on Sunday, southerly flow will continue to intensify over the Ohio Valley. LREF probabilities of advisory level wind gusts increase to around 50-80% by Sunday afternoon, with strong wind gusts expected to continue through Sunday night and into the day on Monday. The strong south flow/WAA will send temperatures well above normal Sunday afternoon, with highs expected in the mid 70s. Although the warm advection will be strong on Sunday, moisture advection is really not expected to ramp up until late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as the amplifying trough really begins to interact with Gulf moisture. As a result, most if not all of the day on Sunday is expected to be dry, with only a slight chance (20%) PoP expected west of I-65 in the late afternoon hours.

By Sunday evening, the aforementioned sfc low is expected to deepen below 990 mb as it crosses from northern IL into the LP of Michigan. A trailing cold front is expected to cross the Mississippi Valley, entering into the lower Ohio Valley during the late evening while undergoing strong frontogenesis. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with the main threat for strong to severe storms expected to be associated with this line. With a very strong wind field expected with this system, all signs point to a classic high-shear, low-CAPE setup, with instability being the main limiting factor for the overall severe potential. Current LREF probabilities of >100 J/kg SBCAPE decrease from ~90% in western KY to ~60% along the I-65 corridor to ~25% along the I-75 corridor. The current expectation is that we will have a robust line of storms entering our area from the west late Sunday evening which could produce damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes as it crosses the region. The line should generally weaken as instability wanes to the east; however, severe wind gusts will be possible across the area given the strong winds aloft. AI/ML guidance has started to focus in with enhanced probabilities for severe weather across the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys Sunday night, increasing confidence. As a result, SPC has introduced a Day 3 ENH (Level 3/5) for western portions of the CWA, with a SLGT (Level 2/5) across the rest of the area. Damaging winds would be the main hazard, though spin-up tornadoes will also be possible.

Behind the front, medium-range progs show temperatures falling 20-30 degrees in a matter of ~6 hours, with 30s expected by Monday morning. Wrap-around moisture during the day on Monday may lead to snow showers across the area, as LREF probabilities indicate a 60- 80% chance for trace snowfall amounts during the day on Monday. Any wintry precipitation Monday shouldn't be too impactful given lingering warm ground temperatures and relatively light precipitation amounts, but it will be a sudden change after temperatures in the 70s on Sunday. Winds will remain strong out of the W/NW Monday before gradually relaxing Monday night. Continued cold advection should allow temperatures to fall into the teens and low 20s Tuesday morning, with wind chills in the single digits for much of the area.

Tuesday through Thursday Night...

After the active stretch of weather Sunday into Monday, quieter weather is favored for the remainder of next week as a broad NW flow pattern sets up across the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48. While the period will start unseasonably cold on Tuesday, a consistent warming trend is expected through the rest of next week as ridging along the west coast starts to spill eastward. The only potentially impactful signal in medium-to-long range guidance would be a possible clipper system next Tuesday night into Wednesday. While precipitation chances are still low (~80-85% chance to remain dry) and amounts would be light, temperatures would be cold enough to support wintry precipitation if anything develops. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are favored for the middle and latter portions of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period, with winds being the driver of new forecast lines. Strong, gusty winds are expected at all forecast sites today, with winds expected to veer from the S/SW this morning to the W/NW by this evening. The strongest wind gusts are expected at LEX, RGA, and SDF, where frequent 30-35 kt gusts are expected between 15-20Z. Wind gusts will also be strong at HNB and BWG, though gusts should generally be in the 25-30 kt range. Late this afternoon, winds will begin to relax, and we should begin to lose the gusts around sunset this evening. Light NW winds and scattered high clouds are expected tonight into tomorrow morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>025-028>030. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ031>043- 045>049-053>057-065>067. IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.