textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Area-wide showers likely with a chance of storms as a cold front passes through the region this morning. Temperatures fall throughout the day behind the cold front passage.

* Widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. Freeze Warning for the entire area for Saturday morning.

* Well-above normal temperatures and precipitation chances return early-to-mid next week, with waves of unsettled weather likely later next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

We are dry and quite warm this morning, with temperatures in the low 70s across the region as we sit in a pre-frontal WAA zone. Nearby radars show an east-west oriented line of showers and storms basically along and north of the I-70 corridor early this morning, which is expected to push south and into our area by the morning commute hours. Based off regional sfc obs, this anafront is already beginning to arrive in our northern tier of Indiana counties, evident by the sharp wind shift. Winds will abruptly shift from the warm southwest flow to a cool north flow with FROPA, followed by the post-frontal precip shield. This line of showers and storms will continue to weaken as it moves toward the Ohio River this morning, with strong low level capping and weak instability expected to mitigate any severe concerns. Could still have a few rumbles of thunder and some gusty winds, but overall will see this line weaken significantly throughout the morning.

Temperatures will fall throughout today as strong CAA spreads south. Given the warm morning, our high temps for today have already occurred, with temperatures forecast to drop into the 50s by this afternoon. Precip will become a bit more isolated and scattered this afternoon, with drier conditions spreading in from the north later today. We'll be precip-free across the entire forecast area by late afternoon or evening, with Lake Cumberland and south-central KY counties being the last to see precip. Precip will be light and progressive enough to limit expected rainfall amounts to under half an inch across the region.

Clouds will clear out tonight as strong sfc high pressure moves into the Midwest. This will keep the strong CAA pattern in place, leading to temperatures falling below freezing for Saturday morning. There is high confidence in seeing widespread min temps between 27-32F for several hours tomorrow morning. Given this high confidence in the temperature forecast, and the start of the growing season, we collaborated with neighboring offices to upgrade the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for late tonight and Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Cool and Dry Saturday, then Warming Up Sunday...

1040 mb sfc high pressure is expected to be located over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning, with the heart of the cP air mass centered over the area. Light winds and sunny skies are expected Saturday, which should help with warming; however, below-normal temperatures should continue with highs mainly in the 50s.

Saturday night into Sunday, sfc high pressure should move toward the Outer Banks as upper-level ridging broadens out over the central CONUS. The low-level winds should veer from easterly to south- southwesterly from Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with a warmer flow regime establishing itself over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Temperatures Sunday morning should not be as cool as Saturday; however, cold valleys along and east of I-75 still have a 30-40% chance of falling below freezing, so additional freeze headlines may be needed. WAA and some sunshine Sunday should help temperatures warm 10-15 degrees higher than Saturday, beginning a warming trend which should continue through the first half of next week.

Warming Trend Continues, Precip Chances Return Next Week...

On the synoptic scale, a general transition from eastern US upper troughing to upper ridging is expected between this weekend and the second half of next week. As the upper flow pattern over the Ohio Valley shifts from northwesterly to southwesterly Sunday night through Tuesday, there is a signal for a few subtle disturbances to bring chances for rain as anomalously high PWATs start to push into the region from the west and southwest. Because these shortwaves are fairly small-scale, predictability on timing and positioning is low at this range, so current PoPs are only in the slight chance to chance range.

As deep SW flow becomes more established over the region Monday into Tuesday, persistent WAA will continue the warming trend, with well- above normal temperatures expected through much of next week. At this time, there are high (70-90%) probabilities in high temperatures above 80 across the area next Tuesday, with low (5-15%) probabilities of highs above 90.

By the middle to latter portions of next week, while large-scale SW flow is favored by ensembles to continue, the transition zone across the central CONUS between cooler/drier air to the northwest and warmer/more moist air to the southeast is expected to become a bit messier. Several disturbances are expected to slide along this broad baroclinic zone, and depending on where they set up, could bring additional chances for showers and storms to the region. While overall, a relatively active pattern is favored later next week, this is dependent on the strength/positioning of the eastern US ridge. Variation in ensembles leads to "smearing" of PoPs during the second half of next week, but should come into better focus by early next week.

At this time, AI/ML severe convection guidance is fairly muted for the second half of next week, showing relatively weak and broad signals with the highest probabilities generally to the NW of the Ohio Valley. Still, with the warm and unstable environment, the setup would be favorable for several days of shower/storm chances later next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The cold front has already pushed south of the I-64 terminals this morning, and is expected to arrive at BWG at the beginning of the forecast period. Scattered showers and a few storms are moving in, along with lowering cigs. Flight categories are expected to be MVFR or IFR this morning as precip moves through the region. However, gradual improvements to VFR will occur through this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain from the north and somewhat breezy today.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.