textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Partly sunny and dry today, with highs in the 70s.

* Very warm and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong cold front moves through the region.

* Dry and much cooler behind the front on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Conditions are dry and cool early this morning. Sfc high pressure is positioned over the Southeast, just southeast of our area. Areas of fog and scattered low clouds continue to develop across south- central KY, where winds are nearly calm in closer proximity to the sfc high. The fog and low clouds are expected to continue, especially across the southeastern forecast area, through mid- morning before dissipating.

Today, an area of low pressure is forecast to race northeast across Ontario and Quebec, while a cold front pushes southeast through portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest. Southeast of the cold front, a broad area of stronger SW low-level flow/WAA will extend across the Mid-MS and OH Valley. Low-level moisture advection should also produce increasing SCT cumulus from the southwest by mid to late afternoon. So look for partly to mostly sunny conditions during the daytime with increasing winds from the SW. Afternoon gusts will reach 20-25 mph, with a few peak gusts near 30 mph. This pattern will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, an area of low pressure will develop across the central Plains. We'll see continued moisture transport into the region as a weak mid-level shortwave impulse slides east over the Lower OH and TN Valley. Isolated to scattered showers look possible overnight into early Tue, especially across south-central KY. A fairly tight pressure gradient will yield a steady south wind and mild temps overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Tuesday, we start off with split flow aloft. An upper low is forecast to rotate east-northeast across northern Mexico, while an upper level trough begins to amplify over the northern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure develops east along the wavy frontal boundary stretching across the central Plains and Midwest. A warm front will likely extend east across northern IL/IN. This overall setup should keep the primary focus for convection off to our northwest closer to the sfc low, nose of the LLJ, and along the warm front. Overall, the forecast for Tuesday (at least during the day) has trended somewhat drier. However, deep convection should blossom across portions of MO/IL late Tuesday while starting to fill in further south in the warm sector. Expect increasing shower and storm chances Tuesday night as storm coverage increases and activity races to the northeast.

Some stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible Tuesday night, but the overall severe risk may stay fairly low with convection remaining elevated in nature. Temperatures will remain well above normal through Tue/Wed with highs in the 70s.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

On Wednesday, the southern stream wave will continue east across Texas while the northern stream trough continues to amplify over the Upper Midwest. Sfc low pressure should tend to deepen northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, with a cold front sinking southeast into the Lower OH Valley by evening. Deep layer SW flow will produce PW values up to 1.50 inches (near the climatological 99th percentile) ahead of the cold front.

Increasing synoptic scale ascent and deep moisture will fuel widespread showers and storms Wednesday into Wednesday night. The mesoscale details, like convective evolution, timing, and destabilization, remain fairly uncertain at this time range. However, given the presence of warm, moist low-level air and strong deep-layer shear, severe storms are possible. Heavy rainfall could also produce localized flooding.

Thursday - Sunday...

Much cooler air spills into the region by Thursday behind the cold front. High pressure builds in from the west. Expect dry weather with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. High pressure quickly shifts southeast, allowing the redevelopment of southwest flow Friday through the weekend. Highs should recover into the 60s for Friday and Saturday, with 70s possible by Sunday. Expect a few cool nights in a row, with lows in the 30s and 40s. A deepening low pressure system could bring showers and thunderstorms back to the area by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Combination of fog and low clouds continues to drift north over central KY this morning. The low-level moisture will slowly mix out through mid to late morning, but confidence is a bit lower than normal on the exact timing.

Back to VFR this afternoon with increasing SW winds. Gusts to 20-25 kts look possible between 17-23Z. Additional low-level moisture will advect into the region from the southwest late this evening and overnight, which will bring additional IFR and low-end MVFR ceilings. Spotty light rain will also be possible tonight, especially across south-central KY.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ027-028-045>047-053>055-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...None.