textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild conditions are expected tonight through Monday morning.

* Severe weather risk continues for Monday night and into Tuesday morning as a weather system moves through the region. The highest risk of severe continues to be west of our region.

* Active weather pattern will continue next week with additional rain/storm chances in the mid-late week time frame. Temperatures will run below average for late April/early May.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations reveal mostly sunny skies across the region. A diurnal Cu field was in full swing with a cool northeasterly surface flow across the region. Temperatures were generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. We expect afternoon highs to top out in the 73-78 degree range with a few spots near the KY/TN border getting close to 80.

Tonight, upper ridging will build across the region and this will result in a dry period weather with mostly clear skies. The exception will be some stratus that may build down into the northeast Bluegrass late tonight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s over the Bluegrass with lower 50s in the I-65 corridor and points to the west.

For Sunday and Sunday night, dry weather conditions are expected as upper ridging holds sway across the region. Thicknesses will increase across the region which will allow surface temperatures to be slightly warmer. Across SE IN and into the Bluegrass region, highs of 75-80 are expected. In the I-65 corridor and to the southwest, highs of 76-82 are expected. Tranquil conditions are expected to continue into Sunday night with lows in the lower 50s in the Bluegrass region with mid-upper 50s across the rest of the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Monday and Monday Night...

Mid-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward on Monday. We'll be in a broad, southwest return flow pattern for the day. Initially skies will start off partly sunny, but we expect to see a stream of mid-high level cloudiness work into the region from the west during the daytime hours. Despite the cloud cover, the warm advection pattern will help boost air temperatures into the 80-85 degree range by Monday afternoon.

To our west, the latest guidance still shows significant cyclogenesis will occur from the eastern Plains through the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes as potent shortwave trough axis pivots northeast through the Plains and into the Great Lakes. A pretty decent 500mb jet streak of 60-70kts looks to rotate through mid-MO Valley and that will allow explosive convective development to occur in the afternoon hours across MO/IA/IL. The latest guidance continues to trend a little north/west with the upper level shortwave and surface low track. Model soundings are impressive across MO/IL as lapse rates are steep aloft with a classic EML moving overhead promoting large amounts of instability. Wind shear is quite good as well with curved and elongated hodographs. The convective evolution at this time range continues to be uncertain, especially with the continued north/west shift in the upper trough/sfc low. In addition, the EML may keep convective coverage across southern MO/IL rather sparse initially given that better forcing will be located north/northwest of the region. Nonetheless, current soundings and pattern recognition here would suggest that supercells would be the preferred storm mode initially with large to very large hail and tornadoes being the main hazards. An eventual upgrowth into one or more lines looks likely as this activity spreads eastward toward the Ohio Valley Monday night.

For the LMK forecast area, it appears that the most significant severe weather risk will be focused more to our west Monday night. The eventual upscale growth into a line (likely QLCS) will push into our forecast area late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. As this occurs, this line will likely fight an environment that will be stabilizing due to nocturnal cooling. While instability may drop, the environmental shear will remain quite high during the evening and overnight hours supporting a high shear/low CAPE setup. In cases like this, damaging winds would be the primary severe weather threat along with embedded circulations/bows/surges in that line that could produce spin up tornadoes. Highest risk of severe looks to be west of the I-65 corridor with a diminishing threat as one heads east of I-65. This line will bring some welcome rains to the region and help alleviate some of the current drought across the region. Rainfall amounts of a half to one inch are expected with this system. Some localized 1-1.5 inch amounts will be possible.

Tuesday through Wednesday Night...

Convection may be in progress across the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday morning though this should exit the region by midday or so with some clearing in the afternoon. After morning lows in the 60s, highs on Tuesday should recover into the mid-upper 70s. If more sufficient clearing takes place, we could push readings more into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Another period of active weather is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as another shortwave trough aloft comes swinging in from the west. While the shear with this system isn't overly impressive, model soundings show rather steep lapse rates aloft, with perhaps a signal of an EML here. Surface based convection looks likely across southern KY with perhaps more elevated convection along and north of the Parkways. A risk of damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats with this activity. The pattern looks to turn a bit drier for Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with lows in the mid-upper 40s Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...

Upper air pattern will take on a ridge west, trough east pattern heading into the late week period. A period of dry weather is expected for Thursday with highs in the mid-upper 60s, with maybe a 70 degree reading down near the KY/TN border. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 40s. A weak perturbation in the flow aloft looks to pass through on Friday yielding scattered rain showers with highs in the low-mid 60s. Lows Friday night will drop back into the low- mid 40s. A northwest flow pattern will continue into Saturday with drier conditions expected. However, below normal temperatures are expected here with highs in the low-mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Earlier dense fog has mixed out leaving a Cu field in its wake. For the afternoon hours, could see some MVFR cigs very early in the period over at KLEX before deck lifts to MVFR by 26/1830-19Z. Northeast winds of 3-8kts are expected through the afternoon hours. Look for the Cu field to diminish this evening with skies clearing out and winds remaining light out of the northeast. VFR conditions are expected overnight and through the day on Sunday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.