textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated-scattered storms possible this afternoon across the northwest portion of the CWA (West of I-65 and north of the WK Parkway).

* Strong cold front will push across the region on Saturday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is a low-risk of strong storms with this system. Rain showers will continue into Saturday evening.

* Much cooler and drier weather will return to the region for Sunday and into early next week. Frost is likely across southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Remnant MCV associated with last evening's convection continues to move eastward across eastern Kentucky this morning. In the wake, an area of clear skies was noted across southern Indiana and much of central and western Kentucky. The ongoing cloud cover associated with the departing MCV has led to a gradient of temperature across the region. Under the clouds, temperatures were in the lower 60s, while further west under clear skies, temperatures had dropped into the lower 50s. For the remainder of the overnight period, the weather is expected to remain quiet with some pockets of fog possible over our southwest areas where last evening's rain occurred.

For today, remnant MCV will continue to translate eastward and into the Mid-Atlantic states. In its wake, short term ridging will build back into the region. Skies look to start out mostly sunny but some high clouds will stream in from the west during the day. A broad/warm southwest flow will be seen with breezy conditions once again. Winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 82-87 degree range for highs. Most areas will see dry conditions today. However, a weak surface trough is expected to lift northward across our northwest sections this afternoon. Several of the CAMs are showing isolated to scattered storms, roughly west of I-65 and north of the WK Parkway. Overall confidence here is a little below average, but the signal in the data suggests at least a 20-30% PoP is warranted over the northwest areas. Storms could be strong here with brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some hail in the strongest cores.

For tonight, look for gusty southwest winds to diminish toward sunset as mixing diminishes. Widespread convection is likely to be in progress from the southern Plains northeastward into the Midwest and western Great Lakes ahead of a trailing cold frontal boundary. This convection will weaken with the loss of heating overnight but showers and a few thunderstorms will move into our southern Indiana and far northwestern KY counties toward sunrise Saturday. Overnight lows will remain quite mild with readings in mid-upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Saturday and Saturday Night...

Fairly strong upper trough axis will move across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes by late Saturday night. Associated with the trough a long trailing cold front will push into the northwest sections of the forecast area Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, widespread rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. Widespread cloud cover and expected ongoing precipitation will limit overall destabilization of the atmosphere on Saturday. Some modest destabilization may occur out across our eastern sections later in the day. Background wind fields will remain strong with deep layer unidirectional flow expected based on model proximity soundings. This would support a threat of more organized convection primarily over SE Indiana and into the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. Isolated strong storms could occur, depending on the amount of destabilization. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds would be the primary hazard with this activity.

Overall model agreement on the cold frontal timing continues to tighten up with the cold front pushing through the I-65 corridor between 18-21Z Saturday and then exiting the LMK CWA by 00-02Z Sunday. While the exiting of the front to the east will bring an end to any strong thunderstorm activity, extensive post frontal cloud cover and rain showers are expected to continue across much of the region into late Saturday evening. Highs on the day will occur in the pre-frontal airmass with reading in the low-mid 70s in many areas, the far eastern areas could see temps spike into the upper 70s to around 80 just ahead of the front. Gusty southwest winds will be seen across the region in the pre-frontal airmass, but winds will quickly shift to the northwest in the early afternoon hours. On the heels of the gusty northwest winds, temperatures will fall at a good clip behind the front. Expect temperatures Saturday evening to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s before bottoming out in the upper 30s/lower 40s by sunrise Sunday.

Sunday through Thursday...

Surface cold front will be across the Mid-Atlantic states by Sunday morning with a large area of high pressure building into the region from the west. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday with high sin the upper 50s in the Bluegrass with lower-middle 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Clear skies and light winds are expected Sunday night which will allow temperatures to fall into the mid-upper 30s in the Bluegrass with lower 40s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Areas of frost are likely from southeast Indiana through the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. As forecaster confidence continues to increase, Frost Advisories will likely be needed in subsequent forecast issuances.

For the remainder of the forecast period, dry and tranquil weather are expected for Monday and Tuesday. A backdoor cold front may drop into the region by late Wednesday and Thursday which will bring an increase in clouds along with a chance of precipitation. Highs Monday will feature a gradient with highs in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass with low-mid 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. A return flow pattern will become established by Tuesday with highs warming back into the mid-upper 70s. Mid-upper 70s are also expected for Wednesday and into Thursday with overnight lows in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Remnant MCV that spawned earlier convection continues to push eastward across southern KY early this morning. Mid-high level cloud shield with this activity will pull off to the east, leaving clear skies for the overnight period. It appears more likely that some MVFR fog will be seen down at KBWG between 17/09-17/13Z due to the Thursday evening rainfall. Otherwise, for the daytime hours, VFR conditions are expected across the region with southwest winds of 8-10kts and occasional gusts of 17-19kts between 17/16-17/23Z. A weak surface trough may spawn some isolated-scattered storms out toward the KHNB area. However, coverage and overall confidence in storms remains too low to include in TAF at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.