textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Northwest flow aloft pattern will set up across the region as we start the new work week. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will likely move southeast across portions of the region during much of the week.

* Some of the storms during the week could be strong to severe with torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding could be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 414 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Currently, surface high pressure extends northward from the Southeast into the Lower Ohio Valley while upper zonal flow remains focused north of the region, over the Great Lakes. This is keeping southerly winds between 5-10 mph over the region as gusts in some areas reach around 15-20 mph. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s, making for another warm day.

Tonight, winds will ease under mostly clear skies, but continued WAA will begin to lift precipitable water values from around 1-1.25" to 1.6-1.8" by 12z Monday.

Monday and Tuesday will see an upper ridge begin to amplify north of the Rockies, resulting in zonal flow becoming more west-northwest flow. This will direct any activity being pushed by the upper flow closer to the CWA as precipitable water values continue to climb towards 2". The models have this general trend in overall flow, but their timing and location of convection remain somewhat uncertain. With the main flow remaining to our northeast, the bulk of the activity is expected to remain focused northeast of the CWA, through central Indiana, southern Ohio, and far northern Kentucky, but with continued highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s, any ongoing convection will likely follow instability and moisture south into parts of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This would also depend on time of day with diurnal warming increasing instability and the risk for strong to severe storms being possible. Coverage will likely increase from Monday into Tuesday. With limited shear, wind, lightning, and heavy rain will be the main threats. With this being said, much of these days will be mostly sunny with many areas, mainly over the southwestern parts of the CWA, remaining dry.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 414 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Amplifying ridging out west will bring northwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley. Multiple systems riding along the ridge will cause daily chances for showers and storms Wednesday through Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm temperatures in the upper 80s will allow for ample instability each day. Shear will be weak to sufficient, indicating a chance for some strong to severe storms each day.

Going into the weekend, a front will stall in the Ohio Valley vicinity as ridging build over the southeastern CONUS. Depending on where the front stalls will determine the precip chances through the weekend. South and along the front, we will see scattered showers and storms (some strong to severe possible).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period. Southerly winds will ease this evening before increasing again tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon gusts could reach near 20 knots.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.