textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Areas of dense fog likely tonight into Monday morning, which may impact the morning commute.

* Otherwise, dry and mostly cloudy on Monday with highs in the 60s.

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers are likely Monday night and Tuesday, and there is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected.

* Much cooler air arrives for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 348 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

We are still struggling to mix out the last patch of low stratus this afternoon, due to lingering moisture trapped beneath a low- level inversion. Low clouds may linger in western portions of the CWA, mainly south of I-64 and north of the WK Pkwy, into the evening hours. However, these clouds continue to slowly erode on both the the northern and southern edges. This band of moisture also stretches into the Bluegrass Region, where we've had a few more stratocu today.

Temperatures this afternoon range from the upper 40s in Etown and Hardinsburg beneath the low clouds, to the mid/upper 50s in mostly sunny areas. The sunnier locations are likely to top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon. Partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions are expected this evening as sfc high pressure moves directly overhead. Late tonight, the sfc high starts to shift east of the area. The BL will again decouple nicely, with winds becoming calm or very light overnight. Temperatures will drop fairly quickly late this evening, and conditions appear favorable for another round of dense fog and low stratus tonight into Monday morning. HREF probabilities of visibility less than a half mile are fairly high (50-80%) across most of the CWA early Monday morning. Areas of dense fog are likely to impact the morning commute. Considered going ahead and issuing another Dense Fog Advisory, but the areal extent is difficult to nail down several hours ahead of time. After discussing with neighboring WFOs, will highlight the potential for dense fog in a Special Weather Statement. Dense fog will also be mentioned in the public forecast, HWO, and WxStory/messaging.

Temperatures are forecast to range from the low 30s to low 40s Monday morning, with low 30s most likely in parts of southern IN and the northern Bluegrass. Tomorrow, a low pressure system is forecast to spin east across the central and southern Plains. We'll have mostly cloudy skies, with fog/low stratus in the morning as well as increasing high clouds ahead of the Plains system. The bulk of Monday will stay dry due to dry air in the lower levels. However, scattered light rain will be possible west of I-65 by 21-00Z Monday evening. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s across the northern CWA to the mid 60s in south-central KY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 348 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Monday Night - Tuesday...

An upper level shortwave trough will deamplify as it races northeast from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. A weakening sfc low will drift across the Ozarks and perhaps Lower OH Valley. However, we will see a healthy 50 kt southwesterly LLJ overspread the forecast area Monday night as the wave lifts across MO/IL. Strong moisture transport and increasing ascent will result in the development of widespread rain showers, which are forecast to continue into Tuesday.

A plume of very modest MUCAPE should extend northeast into central KY Tuesday morning into early afternoon. This would support a small chance for an isolated rumble of thunder. However, the risk for severe weather remains low. More substantial destabilization and an associated severe weather risk will remain confined to the Deep South. Expect much warmer than normal temps during this period, with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday Night - Friday...

A sfc cold front will cross the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, though some light precip will remain possible into Tuesday night. Lows mostly in the 40s look likely, though the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions may only dip to around 50 by 12Z Wednesday.

However, a deeper low pressure system over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will drag a strong cold front through the region Wednesday morning. Much colder air will flow into the region on Wednesday via breezy westerly winds. Strong CAA will limit temps to the 40s and low 50s during the daytime, and the gusty west winds will limit wind chills to the 30s and 40s.

Cold high pressure then gradually builds in from the northwest through Friday, setting us up for a chilly Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Lows in the mid 20s to around 30 look possible for Thanksgiving morning, while highs on Thanksgiving will only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday morning will be colder, with lows around 20-25 degrees.

Weekend...

A digging upper level trough still looks possible across the western US next weekend, with generally deep SW downstream into the OH Valley. Friday night appears most likely to stay dry with the remnant cold, dry airmass in place. However, low precip chances gradually return over the weekend. A relatively weak low pressure system may try to spin up over the Plains again, before lifting off to the northeast. We'll likely remain on the warm side of any potential system, keeping p-types as primarily (if not entirely) rain late in the weekend and early next week. Saturday could still end up dry, though. Plenty of uncertainty remaining on how exactly everything plays out over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dense fog earlier this morning has slowly shrunk while lifting into a low stratus deck. The thickest clouds are now between HNB, SDF, and BWG. These clouds should continue to gradually thin and lift through late afternoon, but cannot rule out brief low-end MVFR ceilings at the aforementioned terminals. Winds will remain light out of the W/NW this afternoon before going calm after sunset.

Tonight, another round of fog and low clouds seems likely. A combination of IFR/LIFR conditions is likely, except at SDF. However, some slight improvement in vsby is possible at HNB/BWG after 10Z Monday due to increasing high clouds. Conditions should mostly improve by 15Z Monday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.