textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonably mild weather for today. Many locations will climb back into the 80s Wednesday through Saturday.

* Remnants of a potential tropical cyclone may bring beneficial rainfall to the region Sunday and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

*** Today through Friday Night ***

Surface high pressure will persist over the region for the remaining of the week. Afternoon temperatures will slightly increase the next couple days into the low to mid 80s across the area. Daytime mixing will continue to mix drier air down to the surface dropping RH values. Minimum RH values for the next several days are expected to be in the mid to low 30s. Areas with higher mixing heights have the potential for RH to drop into the upper 20s.

A weakening frontal boundary will make its way to the region from the north on Thursday. High pressure will build back in behind the front leading to very little effect to the area. Temperatures in the Bluegrass and southern IN areas will see minimal relief with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

*** Saturday through Monday ***

A tropical disturbance that will likely strengthen into a cyclone in the Gulf of America is expected to track into CONUS and bring rain chances to the region. There is still uncertainties with the track and strength of this system, therefore low confidence in the details for the weekend. Guidance is displaying two main outcomes for the area that is dependent on the systems track, timing, and synoptic features.

A shortwave disturbance that develops over the southern Plains will push NE toward the Ohio Valley on Saturday. The southern flow aloft will begin to advect moisture from the Gulf into the region with the help of the shortwave. With the ample moisture and disturbance forcing, this will bring rain showers to area. However, some guidance shows this shortwave phasing in with the low pressure system after landfall. In this case, rainfall would be arriving with the pressure system, which would have a later onset time in the lower Ohio Valley. This outcome would also result in a pressure gradient over the area bringing gusty winds. Generally, the consistencies lie with onset time late Saturday into Sunday, with rain chances all day Sunday. QPF values are ranging from 0.5" - 1" across the area. High-end amounts are closer to 2" with swaths of 2.5" through central KY.

After the disturbance moves east of the area, upper level ridging will be west of the area, keeping a NW flow aloft. Temperatures to start the week are expected to drop back into the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue this entire TAF period. Light and variable winds will become calm across many terminals overnight with clear skies. Wednesday features winds shifting from the south to SW by the afternoon that could occasionally gust up to 15 kts, though gusts were left out of the TAF. Clear skies keep VFR conditions across all terminals through Wednesday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.