textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy and mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday, with wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected. A few gusts to 40 mph are possible across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

* Showers and storms are possible from later tonight through Friday. A few of the storms could become strong.

* Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s.

* Showers and storms return Saturday with cool, dry and calm weather expected for early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Decided to put some brief Dense Fog mention in the grids across our northern tier of southern Indiana counties. These locations are up near the warm front, and despite some fairly thick upper sky cover, some dense fog has been noted on area obs. Don't expect this to last very long given the pressure gradient tightening in response to the surface low moving out of the central Plains. Upper cloud cover may also get a little thicker over the next hour or two as well. Overall, expect pretty quick improvement so no additional messaging is planned outside of the grid update.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers and storms have ended across the area early this morning as the warm front lifts to the north. We'll see variable upper sky cover through the remainder of the night, with S to N surface winds steadily increasing toward dawn. Seeing a notable gradient in temps across the area with upper 50s north, to low and mid 60s elsewhere. Temps may begin to rise a couple degrees toward dawn as steady warm advection begins to take hold.

A surface low will move from the central Plains this morning to the upper Midwest by this evening. As this occurs, the low level jet sees an uptick through the morning into the afternoon beneath a strong mid level impulse. As we mix deeper into the low level jet core, surface gusts are expected to get fairly strong by late morning into the afternoon and early evening. Expect most gusts to be in the 25 to 35 mph range, however a few gusts up around 40 mph cannot be ruled out across our N or NW CWA where the LLJ maximizes. There does appear to be a decent amount of upper sky cover showing up on time heights/soundings, so do think this could limit the deepest mixing. Nevertheless, we are pretty close to Wind Advisory criteria across our north. Will likely issue a Special Weather Statement to account for some of the gust potential up around 40 mph. Outside of the wind gusts, should be a mild and mostly dry day with highs mostly in the 80 to 85 degree range. We'll likely fall a couple/few degrees below record Max Ts today, but a bit of overachievement could get us knocking on the door. A few warm advection showers may pop up, but will keep any coverage at isolated.

Shower chances aren't all that high confidence going into the evening and overnight hours tonight. Expect some activity along the trailing cold front to steadily approach the area, however this activity will be running up against some of the influence from the upper ridge off the mid Atlantic Coast. This drier air and a subtle subsidence inversion around H5 hurting mid level lapse rates will be limiting factors to how much progress precipitation makes it into our area. Will have some scattered chances, especially along and west of I-65 into tonight, but will have to see how it plays out leading up to that time. Should a few stronger updrafts get established, then a brief severe threat could accompany storms along and west of I-65.

The deeper into tonight, and especially Friday, we get the more likely some scattered shower and storm activity will be. The cold front is expected to move into our region and then stall against the upper ridge mentioned above. Given that surges of low level jetting will continue to interact with this frontal boundary through Friday, a few rounds of showers and storms are expected. Will likely see a more pronounced, but brief, dry spell Friday night as another warm sector gets established over the area ahead of the next ejecting surface low. Given that the front never makes it all the way through our area, we'll stay on the milder side of things until then. Look for highs in the low and mid 80s each day, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Saturday...

Our CWA will be situated between upper ridging off the mid Atlantic Coast, and a strong shortwave trough over the north central CONUS Saturday morning. As we progress through the day, a surface low will move from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front sweeping through our region through the day. We'll be in the warm sector to start the day, and expect to see linear convection upstream of our area at daybreak, then pushing eastward through the day. There does appear to be sufficient deep layer shear with this system to support and organized storm threat, however the bigger limiting factor at the moment appears to be the amount of instability, and particularly storm depth. Lapse rates are pretty poor at H5 and above, so most of the available instability will be in the lower half of the column. Still plenty of deep layer shear to work with given an linearly forced line, so still think some stronger storms could produce some pockets of gusty to damaging winds perhaps. Wouldn't be surprised to at least see a Marginal Risk of severe weather for Saturday.

Outside of the strong to severe storm risk, there is high confidence in widespread rainfall with this system, although the system looks pretty progressive so amounts aren't all that high. Current QPF looks to range between the .5" and 75" range for most, with perhaps a few localized amounts closer to 1". For context, NBM probabilities of rainfall over .5" range between 75-95% across the area, while probabilities of rainfall over 1" drop off to 15-40% across much of the area. Southern Indiana would have the best chance at anything over 1", but would likely be localized.

Saturday Night - Wednesday...

The cold front pushes through the region by Saturday evening, with rainfall chances shutting down and temperatures dropping. This will start a stretch of weather with cooler temps and dry conditions through early to mid week at least. Lows by Sunday morning look to range back in the low to mid 40s, with highs on Sunday only recovering to the upper 50s and low 60s for most. Colder temps look to arrive for Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure settles near or over the region. Looking for lows mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range, which could bring some frost potential into play, especially for the sheltered and typically cooler areas. Cooler nights continue into Wednesday morning with values mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range, and a frost threat for some. High temperatures do try to moderate back nearer to normal in the 65 to 70 degree range by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR is expected through the bulk of this forecast cycle, although some showers and storms could arrive toward the end of this forecast window. VFR prevails today with increasing SSW to NNE surface winds. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph will be common, with peak afternoon gusts likely in the 30 to 35 mph range. We'll see mostly upper sky cover, although variable mid clouds may develop at times as well. Winds slacken a bit after sunset, however some gusts will likely continue through the overnight. LLWS may end up being a possibility, but with surface gusts more likely, decided to leave mention out for now. Will continue to advertise some scattered showers and storms moving across the western terminals through the overnight. Will handle with Prob30s for now.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.