textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* An isolated chance for a shower and/or a storm over south central Kentucky this evening where a weak warm front resides.

* Near-record warmth returns Sunday, with well-above normal temperatures continuing throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy during the middle and latter portions of the week.

* Intermittent chances for showers and storms return Sunday night, continuing through the week. Best chances for rain will be along and north of the Ohio River and points northwest. Drought-busting rain unlikely over the next 5-7 days (medium-high confidence).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Seeing some congested Cu build up across southern KY where a weak warm frontal boundary resides. This will be the area where we have to keep an eye on through the afternoon and evening as an isolated shower or storm chance continues. The latest runs of the HRRR keep things pretty quiet so not overly confident anything will actually be triggered given weak surface convergence. Even is something is able to fire late this afternoon or early evening, vertical depth of any updraft will likely struggle above 20 K feet as a subsidence inversion is present on soundings thanks to the proximity of the upper ridge.

Outside of those isolated precipitation chances through the evening, looking for a quiet short term through Sunday. Surface high pressure scoots off the New England coast through tomorrow, but will still hold enough influence over our area, along with upper ridging over the SE CONUS. Should be a decent pressure gradient across the area for SW winds 10 to 15 mph and gusts up in the 20-25 mph range. Looks to be one of those days where you can overachieve on temperatures quite a bit, however there is some question to the degree of upper sky cover. HREF cloud cover and time heights show a good amount of upper clouds, which can limit deeper mixing a bit. Mixing will be an important component to the forecast both for temperatures and dew points, as some drier air could mix down. Given that we are starting to see drought, will be well above normal on temps, and have some pretty low RH values in the afternoon, a bit concerned about some sporadic wildfire activity. 20 foot winds and 10 hour fuels are still a bit marginal, and given the uncertainty with the upper sky cover won't message anything beyond the normal fire weather forecast, but will continue to monitor trends.

Record temps at Bowling Green, Louisville, and Lexington are 94, 87, and 85 respectively. While we won't be getting even close to the Bowling Green one, we could flirt with Louisville or Lexington records. Right now, we expect to fall a couple degrees short with highs in the low and mid 80s for most.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Sunday Night - Monday Night...

The strong upper ridge over the SE CONUS does break down a bit on Sunday night into Monday as a perturbation over eastern Canada progresses eastward, and western CONUS troughing ejects out a bit. This will allow for a cold front trailing from the eastern Canada system to slide toward our western CWA, where some lingering showers and storms are expected to slide into our area late Sunday night into Monday. Eastward progress will be slowed and eventually fizzle due to the antecedent dry airmass, and encountering subsidence from the upper ridge axis, so there is a notable gradient in highest Pops (50-60%) across our NW CWA down to only 20% across our SE CWA. Given some progress of the cold frontal boundary, and lingering clouds from showers and storms, temps will be a bit lower than Sunday. Looking for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Each overnight will be mild in the 60s.

Tuesday - Saturday...

SE CONUS ridging holds through the week, with troughing expected across the western US. Several shortwaves are expected to eject out of the western CONUS trough, riding NE along the western periphery of the upper ridge. Our area will be situated between these two features, and could catch some of the activity as each disturbance passes. The bulk of the shower and storm activity will be just to our north and west, however our NW CWA is likely to see at least some shower and storm chances, while our SE CWA is more likely to stay dry closer to the center of the subsident upper ridge. Right now, the best chances for showers and storms looks to be later Wednesday night into Thursday, and perhaps again on Saturday. Some of the later week activity could pose a strong to severe storm threat across our NW CWA, where slightly better deep layer shear will reside.

Temperatures look to remain pretty warm throughout the week, assuming we don't get too much shower and storm activity. In fact, we'll be flirting with record highs for much of the week. Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Friday should be the warmest in the low and mid 80s. Perhaps a few upper 80s across southern KY. Given that Thursday and Saturday have the best shot at showers and storms, temps are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s these days.

Given the increasing drought conditions across Kentucky, especially south central Kentucky, it should be worth noting that there is a good chance that it continues to worsen this upcoming week. LREF probabilities of at least 1" of rainfall through next Saturday do sit at 60-70% across southern Indiana. However, south central Kentucky where D2 (Severe) drought is already ongoing only has about 15-30% chance of at least 1" of rain through the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

SDF/LEX/RGA are still recovering from MVFR ceilings at this hour, although satellite trends do show steady improvement. So, expect a quick trend toward VFR this afternoon. Otherwise, look for some variable high cloudiness through the period along with surface winds veering to the NE, then E later this evening, SE in the pre-dawn hours, and then SSW by Sunday morning. Surface winds will be mostly in the 10 to 15 mph range, gusting up around 20 mph at times through Sunday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.