textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday morning, mainly for southern IN and north-central KY. Additional scattered storms are possible across south-central KY Saturday afternoon. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with hail and wind as the main threat for any strong to severe storms.

* Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s this weekend into the beginning of next week. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry weather across the region this afternoon is expected to continue into tonight as mid-level ridging slides to the east. However, clouds will be on the increase through the overnight ahead of an upper shortwave moving across the region. A broad area of moisture transport will advect into the area overnight along an advancing warm front, with mid-level vorticity pivoting across and adding support for scattered to numerous showers by tomorrow morning. Model soundings continue indicate a healthy low level inversion, which will keep any storms elevated through the morning. However, there should be a large amount of CAPE, though the profile is rather saturated. Morning showers and storms will mostly be unorganized as shear will be marginal, though definitely could see some lightning strikes. PWAT values will also be quite high around 1.5", which is around the 90th percentile of sounding climatology.

The warm front will lift north of the area by the middle of the day, along with the mid-level vorticity, taking away the better forcing. We could end up with a lull of activity during the middle of the day, with outflow boundaries from the morning convection shifting south. This outflow boundary will be the focus area for additional convection development across south-central KY in a better destabilized environment. Model soundings across the south support steeper low level lapse rates and a slightly drier mid-level layer. Combined with strong instability up to 2000 J/kg, higher DCAPEs may result if we see drier mid-levels. As so, SPC has expanded the marginal risk in the D2 slightly more south for wind and hail risk for any convection that fires along remnant outflow boundaries. Most convection activity will decrease by tomorrow evening, but hold on to a chance for the I-64 corridor and north.

For Sunday, dry weather is expected again as ridging moves into the area. Sfc high pressure will be centered over the southeastern US, which will ramp up the WAA flow for the region. This will result in temperatures Sunday afternoon peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. These high temps will be 10-15 degrees above normal, and could challenge some daily maxT records.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...

This period is expected to start dry across the region with overnight lows Sunday night in the upper 60s, though the urban areas will remain around 70 for lows.

Moving into Monday, the region will be in a southwest flow aloft and at the surface. A consistent signal of warm air advection will keep temperatures above normal here with afternoon readings warming into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The warmest conditions will be down south of the Cumberland Parkway region. Looking at soundings across the region, shear profiles look to remain quite weak here and we'll likely see some afternoon mixing which will lower dewpoints into the mid-upper 50s in the east with lower 60 dewpoints out west of I-65. This could produce enough instability produce a few isolated- scattered storms across our far western areas that may linger into the evening hours. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday morning will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

For Tuesday, the broad southwest flow will continue across the region with moisture pooling out ahead of an approaching upper trough and a surface boundary. Looking at soundings, with the ridge shifting off to the east, soundings do show a bit of higher level moisture moving into the region aloft, which suggests that we'll have a bit more cloud cover across the region. Insolation will not be as strong as Monday, but the overall synoptic pattern will support afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 80s with a few 90s down across southern Kentucky. Shear profiles remain rather weak across the region. However, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and dewpoints in the 60s will yield enough instability for scattered showers/storms in the afternoon. Scattered showers/storms are likely to continue into Tuesday night as the front drifts closer to the region from the west with lows in the upper 60s.

Frontal boundary looks to bisect the region Wednesday morning and will push off to east during the day and into the evening. Plentiful cloud cover and scattered showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible as this boundary moves through. Temperatures swill cool off a bit as the front heads through, with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A drying trend will take place Wednesday night as temperatures cool back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Thursday and Friday...

Looking into the later week period, frontal boundary looks to slowly sag southward into the TN Valley on Thursday with the upper level flow taking more of a zonal flow aloft while an area of high pressure works across the Great Lakes states. Blended PoPs here look a bit too high and probably will trend downward in future forecasts. In the post frontal airmass, temperatures will be back to seasonal normals with highs in the mid-upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 50s.

Zonal flow looks to hold into Friday with slightly drier air continuing to work into the region from the west/northwest. A slight moderation in temperatures is expected with highs warming into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing across the region, with just some scattered mid-level clouds to note. Winds generally from the south will continue tonight, along with VFR weather. By tomorrow morning, a cluster of showers and potentially a few storms will enter the area. Highlighted this timing with PROB30 groups for now. Expect all terminals to experience some precip tomorrow, expect for BWG. VFR prevails through the end of the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.