textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* This weekend, showers and non-severe thunderstorms expected across the region.

* Overall drier and hotter conditions arrive early next week while an upper level ridge builds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Currently, among zonal flow overhead we have a shortwave pushing east, nearing the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the wave, the Lower Ohio Valley has southerly winds in place. This is pushing precipitable water values to near 2 inches. In the moist environment heavier showers and thunderstorms continue pushing north-northeast and are now exiting our southern Indiana counties.

For the rest of the day, the shortwave will drive additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Through the morning hours, increasing stratus is expected to limit warming, reducing instability. Through the first half of the day expecting isolated to scattered showers that will drift slowly to the east across the CWA. Into the afternoon and evening hours, some thunderstorms will likely develop, but with limited warming and weak mid level lapse rates, not expecting anything strong or severe as convection struggles to grow. Shear continues to be weak too. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s with warmer temperatures across the west, cooling to the east with the later precipitation.

Early tonight, any remaining showers will push off to the east and exit the CWA. Clearing skies are expected to follow from the west. With light winds and moisture on the ground, patchy fog is expected to develop across the region as lows drop into the mid 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Sunday, the shortwave will be east of the region, leaving zonal flow parked mainly to our north as a cold front approaches and arrives in southern Indiana during the evening hours. This could initiate another round of isolated to scattered showers that would push east over and out of the region. Overall moisture levels ahead of the front are expected to climb back into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch PWAT range. Convective parameters look a lot like today's, so strong and severe thunderstorms aren't expected before precipitation ends early Sunday night.

By Monday, an upper ridge with surface high pressure behind the cold front moves in over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will bring clearing skies and a return of WAA for Tuesday as the center of the surface high passes. This will lift highs back into the low to mid 90s beginning Tuesday.

Wednesday, as the upper ridge positively tilts to the east into New England, it will leave zonal flow north of the Ohio River with upper high pressure parked over the South. A surface high is expected to get pushed east along the zonal flow. This is expected to push a west to east oriented front to near the Ohio River which could set up and become quasi-stationary, leading to low precipitation chances through at least the end of the work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The forecast remains on track. Earlier convection kicked off an outflow boundary that is working north-northeast towards SDF. This could produce south-southwest winds at SDF that could quickly gust to around 20 knots for a short time before winds quickly ease back down. Scattered showers will continue to work over HNB and SDF during the rest of the night before moving towards LEX and RGA after sunrise. Visibilities are expected to remain mostly VFR, but ceilings are expected to drop into MVFR levels. LEX could possibly see IFR ceilings for a short period of time with some precipitation.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.