textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chances for light wintry precipitation across SE Indiana and north central Kentucky New Year's Eve night into early New Year's Day. Little to no accumulation expected.

* A quiet weather start to 2026 with one system to watch for additional light rains Friday afternoon through Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

NW-to-SE-oriented jet streak over the Midwest is moving east and southeast this hour. A cold front and mid-level shortwave under this feature should spark some precipitation over OH, eastern IN, and northeast KY tonight. Our Bluegrass KY and SE IN counties have the best chance to catch a few hundreths of an inch of precipitation as a glancing blow from this system. Temperatures still are going to be close for whether that falls as liquid or wintry. NBM and CONSShort temperatures look to stay above freezing for our area save for right around daybreak Thursday in our Bluegrass and SE IN counties...after the best of the precip chances passes to the south of that area.

Having said that, there are some signs that we could get some patches of drizzle to form somewhere in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor around daybreak Thursday. With that freezing line moving in the same area, where could have to watch for some patches of freezing drizzle in that time frame. Fortunately travel impacts should be minimized with the holiday and no expected morning rush hour.

After a cloudy start to the day, we could get some breaks in by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures should be a little cooler than normal for the north half, but southern KY should be able to get closer to normal as the clipper front bringing this precip washes out before getting down there.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Only feature of note this period will be a low pressure system crossing the Deep South Friday and Saturday. Looking at global model ensemble members, they give about a 20 percent chance to measure precip up in the LEX/SDF corridor and 50-60 percent chance in southern KY...right in line with NBM chances. Precip would be light on the north side of that gradient, but temperatures will be close to freezing Saturday morning as that wave passes...so again, we'd have to watch for precip types. QPF is low enough not to show issues yet, but certainly something to watch as we get closer.

Otherwise, we'll watch for a warmup for the first full work week of 2026. High pressure aloft will move east out of the Central U.S. Monday and bring us temperatures well into the 50s if not low 60s by midweek. A few models bring in some rain chances for midweek as well, but like the NBM slight chances at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Have a thin band of MVFR-based clouds along the I-64 corridor this hour, a little ahead of schedule per previous guidance. There could be some further thinning of this band in the mid afternoon hours, so have a tempo group for the sites along I-64 to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR. Deeper moisture moves into the region this evening, allowing for more widespread lowering cigs...though KBWG may be able to miss out on it. Also cannot rule out a brief snow shower impacting the KLEX terminal in the late evening and early overnight period. Chances/confidence not high enough for a mention in this set of TAFs. Moderate winds will stay from the west southwest this afternoon before a switch to northwest and then north winds occurs early morning hours Thursday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.