textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Frost Advisory for early this morning. Frost/Freeze Headlines possible for some again tonight and Tuesday night.

* Dry conditions expected this week, with a trend to above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A slight chance of a shower or storm could arrive across southern Indiana on Friday, but confidence is low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Seeing a clear, cold, and quiet night across the CWA. There is a thin shield of upper sky cover skirting southern KY, otherwise everyone else has clear and calm conditions promoting excellent radiational cooling. Plan to leave the Frost Advisory as is for the NE half of the CWA, although not overly confident about the SW half of it where temps are currently sitting in the 40 to 45 degree range in most spots. Could still have some decoupled sheltered areas, so will re-evaluate around 430-500 AM and decide whether to trim some of it in the SW CWA.

Otherwise, look for a dry and quiet day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing to near normal values in the low and mid 60s for most. Some upper 60s to near 70 are possible down across southern KY. A dry cold front does approach and pass later today, so surface winds will veer around from SW to W, and then a bit gusty out of the WNW through the afternoon.

Another cold night expected tonight with most low temperatures ranging in the 35 to 40 degree range. Some colder temperatures are expected in the decoupled valleys, especially in our NE CWA where some low 30s are likely in spots. Could see another round of potential frost later tonight, but the the big limiting factor will be surface winds up in the 5-10 mph range, and perhaps some variable mid level cloudiness as well. There has been a consistent signal for frost potential across our NE third of the CWA, and would expect if any headlines are needed later today, that is where it would be placed. A few sheltered areas could see freezing temps, but not expected that to be widespread unless surface winds were lighter than anticipated.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

Strong Canadian high pressure traverses the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with fairly steady N to NE surface winds in place across our area. This cold advection component combined with some variable mid level cloudiness from an upstream band of precipitation will act to keep temps well below normal. Only expecting highs in the low to mid 50s across southern IN and north central KY. Expect to still squeak out highs in the low 60s across southern KY. Going into Tuesday night, still expect a decent pressure gradient over the area, along with a few mid clouds. Sheltered valleys likely decouple into the lower 30s, however most everyone else expected to be in the mid to upper 30s. Frost is a question mark for Wednesday AM as the surface winds and cloud cover lower confidence in just how much we could see. Right now, the Bluegrass region looks to be the most favorable for frost, or even a light freeze in some of the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

Our dry stretch continues thorugh mid week with a trend back toward milder temperatures by this time. Surface high pressure that had been centered to our north will shift eastward and allow some return flow across the area. We'll keep partly to mostly sunny skies in place as well which should allow for warming temps back above normal. Highs on Wednesday peak in the upper 60s and low 70s, with Thursday highs back in the low to mid 70s. Both Wednesday and Thursday nights will also be notably milder thanks to the southerly return flow.

Friday - Sunday...

Will be keeping a mostly dry forecast in place for the late week and into the weekend, however will have to keep at least some small chances for a shower or storm in across our northern CWA for Friday and Friday night as a weak frontal boundary sags toward our area. This feature is expected to stall as it encounters a building upper ridge over the SE CONUS, and exactly where that occurs will determine whether we keep those low chance pops, or end up with our fully dry trend continuing, because the front should lift back to the north by Saturday and Sunday. This will result in even milder temperatures with a continued dry forecast. After highs in the mid to upper 70s on Friday, look for upper 70s and low 80s on Saturday, and low to mid 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR prevails through this forecast cycle with high pressure to our west gaining control over the region. Expect very light SW or calm winds this morning, before steady W, and then gusty WNW winds take hold late morning through the afternoon. Could see a few cu around 5- 6K feet for a few hours this afternoon, but overall look for mostly sunny skies. Winds slacken early evening and maintain a light N component into later tonight. Some mid clouds also will likely stream into the area after sunset.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.