textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms return this afternoon/evening across southern Kentucky with the highest chances along/south of the WK/BG Parkways. The main threats would be heavy rainfall and lightning. Isolated flooding is possible in southern Kentucky.

* Drier conditions are expected for Saturday and Saturday night, before another another chance of showers returns to mainly southern Kentucky again on Sunday and Monday.

* A much drier weather pattern will take shape across the region as we move into the middle of next week. Dry weather with seasonal temperatures and lower humidity are expected for much of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Afternoon observations reveal mostly sunny skies across southern Indiana and north-central/east-central Kentucky. Cloudy skies were noted down along/south of the Cumberland Parkway. Temperatures were generally in the upper 70s to near 80 over the region. Regional radars showed some convection firing across north-central TN. This activity was moving northward toward the KY/TN border.

For the remainder of the afternoon hours, mostly sunny conditions will be seen across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Across southern Kentucky, shower activity will gradually increase as convection moves out of northern Tennessee. A few thunderstorms will be possible with this activity. However, model soundings show weak deep layer shear which will limit the risk for severe storms. However, any of the stronger cores that do develop will be capable of producing gusty winds on the order of 30-35 mph and locally heavy rainfall. The highest risk of rainfall this afternoon looks to be in areas south of the Cumberland Parkway.

Moving into tonight, widespread shower activity will likely be confined to areas of southern Kentucky with some embedded thunderstorms. Much of the activity this evening looks to remain south of the Cumberland Parkway through at least mid-late evening. Based on the latest high resolution guidance, storm motions continue to look rather slow here with the cloud bearing layer winds only showing winds of 10-12 mph. So any storms that form will likely be slow moving. Model soundings continue to show rather weak vertical wind shear profiles across the area. So the threat of severe weather with this activity looks fairly small. However, model soundings do show a relative deep warm cloud depths around 13-14Kft and high PWAT values. 29/12Z HREF continues to show a few swaths of 6hr LPMM swaths of 2-4 inches down along the KY/TN border. So the main threat with this activity will be locally heavy rainfall with a risk of some localized flooding. Overall rainfall amounts of a quarter to three quarters of an inch will be possible with this activity, but some very localized higher amounts could occur where storms train. This activity will gradually diminish this evening. Outflow from the storms may move a bit northward driving the risk of additional convection as far north as the WK/BG Parkway corridor. For this reason, will keep at least 20 PoPs going as far north as a Hawesville to Fort Knox to Liberty line. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s over the Bluegrass to the low-mid 60s over the I- 65 corridor and down into southern KY.

For Saturday and Saturday night, mid-level ridge axis will build over the region. A mid-level vort max responsible for the Friday night activity will move off to the southeast during the day on Saturday. We'll get a surge of drier air out of the Great Lakes which will yield a mostly dry and pleasant day across the region. There still may be enough moisture across our far southwestern counties that could yield a scattered shower or storm. Highs on the day will be solidly in the upper 70s to around 80. Dry conditions are expected for Saturday night with lows dipping into the 50-55 degree range across the Bluegrass. Across the I-65 corridor, lows will be in the middle 50s, with upper 50s in areas along and west of I-65.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Sunday through Monday Night...

Moving into the late weekend, the forecast has not changed significantly. The large scale pattern will feature a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS with upper troughing across the western CONUS and off the New England Coast. In between these large cutoff lows, an equally impressive blocking ridge will be seen across the northern Plains into Canada. A plume of higher moisture content will be situated from the northern High Plains southeast through the MO Valley into the SE US. Within this plume, a stalled out frontal boundary will drift back to the northeast and spread back into the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and storms will be possible across the region Sunday afternoon and into the day on Monday. Looking at model profiles, wind shear values remain quite low through the period and the moisture within the column isn't forecast to be as high as we've seen earlier in the weekend. Nonetheless, brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds can't be ruled out with some of the storms Sunday and Monday afternoon. Highs during the period will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 50s in the Bluegrass with upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere.

Tuesday through Friday...

Moving into the extended period, the upper level low across the northeastern US looks to become deeper with time while high latitude ridging builds into the upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes. Upper ridging is forecast to build across the MO Valley and into the OH/TN Valleys through the period which will lead to an influx of much drier air into the region. Overall, a dry period of weather is expected in the Tuesday through Thursday period. By late week, the upper low over the NW Atlantic is forecast to move out and the flow across the CONUS will turn more zonal with time. We'll gradually get back into a southerly flow at the surface by Friday or so with a diurnal chance of showers/storms firing up as a mid-level trough axis pushes toward the region.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s. We'll edge a little warmer on Thursday with highs mainly in the lower 80s and we may warm into the middle 80s by Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period, with the exception of BWG tonight. Light rain is currently moving NNE from TN into the BWG area. Radar trends are showing weakening in the showers as they move in. BWG can expect scattered light rain showers through the night. However, a heavier rain shower and even thunder cannot be ruled out. With the added moisture and very light winds overnight, BWG could also see some patchy fog. HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA - High clouds stick around through the period and light NE winds overnight. Tomorrow skies will partially clear with SCT to FEW 250.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.