textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mild temperatures and windy conditions expected this afternoon. Wind gusts through sunset will be in the 25-35 mph range. A few gusts to 40 mph will be possible in the Bluegrass region.

* The next weather system will move through the region tonight and Thursday morning bringing rain initially. Cold air will filter into the region during the day and may result in rain changing to snow by late Wednesday afternoon. Some light coatings of snow will be possible across our eastern sections.

* Another system looks to move through on Friday and Saturday brining snow showers and snow squalls to the area along with cold temperatures. Some minor accumulations of snow will be possible. Very cold temperatures are expected late in the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 301 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Conditions across the region this afternoon were fairly quiet with mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the low-mid 50s. Some upper 50s were noted out west of I-165. Gusty southwest winds were noted across the region. The core of the 850h jet is passing just north/northeast of the region. With adequate mixing, we're not going to mix all the way to 850 mb, but maybe 950-925 mb. 13/12Z BUFKIT forecast still call for about 75-80% transfer from the top of the PBL. This still supports wind gusts of 30-35 mph across the Bluegrass region. KY Mesonet data shows peak wind gusts so far around 30-35 mph in the Bluegrass. Cloud cover will relax a bit and there is still a window where we could see some gusts up to 40 mph at times. The winds are expected to decrease toward sunset as turbulent mixing diminishes and the 850 jet moves east of the region.

For tonight, surface low pressure across Ontario will move east into Quebec with a southward trailing cold front pushing toward our region. This system will have a pretty decent upper level shortwave trough behind it and this feature will drop into the Midwest late tonight. Ahead of that feature, moisture will pool across the Ohio Valley and widespread light rain showers are expected to develop and continue through the overnight period. Temperatures overnight will remain well above freezing with lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Wednesday...Surface cold front will approach the Ohio River around 12Z Wednesday morning. We expect widespread showers to be in progress ahead of the boundary (mainly across Kentucky). This front will continue to push southward across the Commonwealth during the afternoon hours. Much colder air will filter into the region by mid- late afternoon with the surface freezing line approaching the Ohio River by 00Z Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will occur during the early part of the day with readings in the lower-middle 40s. Temperatures are expected to crash in the evening.

Wednesday Night...Surface cold front will continue southward into TN Wednesday night with cold air surging faster through KY. The cold should catch the back end of the departing precipitation down across southern KY. There may be enough overlap here where some light coating of snow could occur in our southeast sections. In the post frontal regime, moisture will stream off the Great Lakes which and we may have a few lake plumes that extend southward into our region. The wind flow looks to keep much of this activity east of the I-65 corridor. As the evening wears on, the wind direction will shift to more of a northwest flow and aim the lake bands more toward east- central IN and southern Ohio and far northeastern KY. Some clearing will move into western KY and may get as far east as the I-65 corridor overnight. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens/lower 20s by Thursday morning. Residual water from the previous rainfall may freeze overnight resulting in scattered slick spots for the Thursday morning commute, especially in areas east of I-65.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 301 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Thursday - Thursday Night...

Sharp upper trough axis will move east of the region on Thursday and we'll actually get into some shortwave ridging by the afternoon and evening. This will result in mainly dry and cold conditions across the region. Highs will generally be in the upper 20s to around 30 across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Southern KY should warm into the lower 30s. The next weather system is then forecast to drop into the region from the northwest late Thursday night and early Friday morning. This will bring some snow showers into southern Indiana by dawn. Lows will be in the 15-20 degree range.

Friday through Saturday Night...

Aforementioned shortwave trough axis will continue to rotate into the region Friday morning with additional smaller lobes of vorticity rotating through the base of the trough axis Friday night and through the day on Saturday. Gulf moisture will not be available here, but a fetch of shallow moisture and good lift will bring widespread snow showers to the region Friday morning. After the morning wave rotates through, some partial clearing will be possible and if we can get some sun, temps will attempt to warm into the upper 30s/lower 40s. If more sun occurs, temps may get a little higher than that as some guidance suggests upper 40s could creep into portions of southern KY.

The next vort lobe will then rotate in Friday night and bring widespread snow showers back into the region. As the core of the upper low approaches Saturday afternoon, additional heating should result in steeper lapse rates resulting in more snow showers and the potential for some snow squalls. This activity looks to shut off fairly quickly though by Saturday evening. Lows Saturday morning will be in the low-mid 20s with highs on Saturday remaining in the upper 20s to around 30. A stronger influx of colder air will arrive Saturday night with lows Sunday morning falling into the 10-15 degree range. Wind chills Sunday morning will be in the 0-5 degree range.

As for snowfall amounts, generally light snowfall amounts are expected through this period. Some minor accumulations of snow will be possible Friday morning with that first wave, with a second round of minor accumulations Friday night and again on Saturday. QPF amounts will be quite small, but given the cold air, a couple of hundredths of QPF can go a long way. The fluffy/powdery snow will be hard to measure, but many folks will see a coating to an inch of snow overall during the period. Some very localized higher amounts of snow could occur within snow squalls Friday night and Saturday, but to pinpoint exact locations at this forecast time range is impossible. Overall, the highest accumulations look to take shape over WFO JKL's SE areas in the higher elevations where 1-2 inches could occur in the lower elevations, but higher elevations could see upwards of 3 inches. Periods of slick travel will be possible Friday morning, and again Friday night and possibly during the day on Saturday. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed in future forecasts.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Deep cyclonic flow will remain in place across the region for Sunday. Another vorticity lobe looks to roll through the region Sunday night and early Monday bringing another round of snow showers across the region. After that, mainly dry conditions are expected by Monday afternoon continuing into Tuesday.

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-upper 20s in the north with upper 20s across the south. Lows will dip back into the low-mid teens for Sunday night. Highs Monday will moderate some with readings topping out in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. A few spots in southern KY look to warm into the low-mid 30s. Similar readings are expected on Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Moving into the extended forecast period, the teleconnection pattern is expected to be in a -NAO/-AO/-EPO/Neutral PNA pattern. This supports the deep trough axis in the eastern CONUS with strong ridging across the western CONUS. The West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) is forecast to remain negative here as well. This would support a continued colder than normal pattern from the northern Plains east into the Great Lakes and into New England. The MJO has been hanging out in the null phase but is expected to pulse out into phase 6 near the beginning of the period. Typically phase 6 in January is mild, but here we will be in a rather cold period initially. However, the MJO spike into phase 6 may result in a short moderation of temperatures and the emergence of the SE ridge. While the dynamical models build this ridge, I'm not overly confident that it will grow all that much given the -WPO forecast by the models.

It does seem plausible that some retreat of the colder core of air will take place and locally we'll moderate our temps above freezing. It seems that we may see the development of a large baroclinic zone from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and into the Mid- Atlantic around 1/23-1/24. The dynamical models suggest this, but I expect to see rather poor run-to-run continuity here with how the models handle it. The baroclinic zone will lead us to higher than normal precipitation chances here. In theory, we should have a pretty decent cold dome in place which will probably be hard to scour out initially. However, any southern stream system that develops will have the potential to bring moisture and warmer air into the region. The net result here is that all threats could be on the table here (rain/wintry mess/snow). Signal analysis from early January has been pointing to a period of active weather in the 1/24-1/27 period.

While the MJO is forecast emerge in phase 6 at the beginning of the period, most model forecasts show a strong orbit into phase 7/8 by the end of January and into phase 1/2 by early February. This would be strongly suggestive another bout of cold weather for the eastern US to close out the month and into February.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Cloud ceilings will continue to lower early this morning with light rain commencing across the area. Initially, we'll stay VFR with little to no vis restriction, however eventually ceilings will settle into the MVFR range in the pre-dawn to around sunrise time range. In addition, vis restrictions in more steady rain will be possible around this time. A cold front approaches and passes late morning through the afternoon with SW and WSW winds veering to a NW component and gusting 20 to 25 mph. Could be a brief period of low MVFR or even IFR cigs at LEX before this frontal passage. Light rain becomes more isolated and spotty with frontal passage, and could see an end to precipitation with a few light snow showers later this evening. Won't advertise in the TAFs for now due to low coverage and confidence. Ceilings should begin to improve toward the end of this cycle.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.