textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* We begin a general warming trend now until the middle of next week.

* Wind gusts of 20-25 MPH possible in far northwestern communities this morning before winds start to calm everywhere after 12 Noon EDT.

* Chance for showers (30-40%) and a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms Friday afternoon - Friday night across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.

* Mainly dry and warm over the weekend, with highs in the 80s on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Thursday will continue the trend of warmer temperatures for this week, with afternoon highs forecast to get into the mid-to-upper 70s. The southern periphery of a LLJ associated with an upper-level trough over the northern Great Lakes Region is beginning to move over our forecast area, and is expected depart to our north by midday. Recent guidance is showing gusty conditions after sunrise until noon, especially for the northwestern counties of the CWA. The extent and magnitude of the gusts is fully dependent on how much mixing with the LLJ takes place. Wind gusts could gust as high as 30- 35 MPH late around 10-11 AM EDT/9-10 AM CDT for our northwestern counties (40-60% chance), though for now we are continuing to forecast for gusts around the 20-25 mph range for areas north and west of Louisville.

As the low level jet retreats to our north Thursday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure will begin to fill in over the area from the southeast, persisting well into next week. The only near-term chance for precipitation comes late Friday as a weak frontal boundary moves southward over the area. A few showers and storms are possible (20- 30%), though current forecast accumulations are minimal. Southerly flow from the ridge will keep Thursday night lows in the low-to-mid 50s, with Friday afternoon highs rising into the upper 70s/low 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A mid/upper level trough is forecast to develop eastward over Quebec and New England Friday night and Saturday. Upstream, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. This occurs ahead of deeper troughing near the West Coast. In the lower levels, persistent ridging will remain anchored over the Southeast US. A stronger sfc high will drift east over the Great Lakes.

Sandwiched between those two high pressure systems, a quickly weakening cold front will attempt to push southeast through the Ohio Valley. An axis of moisture pooled along the boundary will move over southern IN and central KY Friday night, with PW values up to 1.0- 1.1 inches. The frontal boundary quickly loses upper level support, with rising heights aloft by Saturday. While forcing looks quite weak overall, weak convergence and available moisture should be sufficient for at least spotty light showers overnight. Rain chances top out at 30-40% across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Look for overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

The washed out boundary and pool of moisture linger over central KY on Saturday, which may result in a few isolated showers. However, the vast majority of the day looks dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 70s north of I-64 to around 80 degrees in southern KY.

The remainder of the weekend will feature an amplifying upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley. Multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances will race northeast across the central Plains. The relatively stronger shortwave will help induce sfc wave development across the northern Plains by Sunday. We will stay dry Saturday night and Sunday, with strengthening SW flow yielding warmer temperatures. The main SW LLJ/moisture transport axis will stream from the central Plains northeast across the Upper Midwest, keeping any rain and thunderstorms well off to our west and northwest. Sunday afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise into the low to mid 80s.

Low pressure continues to race northeast across portions of Ontario and Quebec Sunday night into Monday. Robust SW LLJ and a deep plume of moisture will spread northeast across portions of the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. A round of showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms will be possible around the Monday morning time frame. However, conditions should then dry out fairly quickly by Monday evening.

Conditions will remain quite warm into next week with broad SW flow and ridging over the Southeast. A stronger upper level wave over the western US will eventually develop northeast across the Plains through the middle of next week. The latest ensemble data suggest this could lead to strong sfc cyclogenesis during this time frame. This wave racing to the northeast could then bring us more widespread chances for showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front sometime Wednesday into Thursday. However, forecast confidence in the details is low. Extended range ML severe weather guidance highlights portions of the Mid-MS Valley and Lower OH Valley with elevated probabilities by this time, so at least some risk for strong to severe storms seems reasonable.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue to persist, with any remaining upper- level clouds retreating in the next few hours. A LLJ currently over the northwestern TAF sites has SDF and HNB in a period of marginal LLWS that will last for another hour or two. Winds across all the TAF sites will increase this morning, with peak gusts between 20-25 kt forecast for all sites except BWG. Winds will decrease during the afternoon hours, becoming relatively calm by the overnight hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.