textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Snow flurries and low clouds should gradually decrease from southwest to northeast this evening. Cold temperatures, with lows in the upper teens and low 20s, are expected Tuesday morning.

* Moderating temperatures and breezy SW winds are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night.

* A chance for widespread rain returns to the region Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

This afternoon, a tightly-wound low pressure system can be seen in satellite imagery and on upper level/sfc analysis as a nor'easter begins to push off the coast of the northeast US. From the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, a broad region of deep NW flow remains in place, with higher pressures/heights located across the central and southern Plains. N/NW flow in the low levels of the atmosphere has allowed for a fairly persistent streamer band of moisture to advect into the region off of Lake Michigan today, contributing to impressive coverage of light snow showers and scattered flurries across the area, especially across southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass region.

Through the rest of this afternoon and evening, high pressure will continue to inch to the east, gradually causing boundary layer winds to back toward the west and become lighter. This should shut off the low-level moisture source, with clouds and snow flurries gradually diminishing later this evening from west to east. Could see one more snow burst across the Bluegrass between now and late evening, but wouldn't expect accumulations to be significant. As clouds clear and winds ease, temperatures should be able to cool into the upper teens and low 20s by tomorrow morning. Fortunately, slackening winds should keep wind chills fairly close to the air temperature tonight.

For the day on Tuesday, high pressure should sink into the Gulf as another area of low pressure develops over the upper Great Lakes. As the pressure gradient tightens between these two features, milder SW flow should help warm temperatures into the 40s across the area, with winds becoming gusty by the afternoon and evening hours. Mid- and upper-level moisture should bring increasing clouds from the NW tomorrow, though drier air near the sfc should limit precipitation chances. As the center of the sfc low passes well to the northeast of the region Tuesday night, a sfc cold front will begin to sag into the region. Breezy SW winds will likely continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Low- level moisture return will be relatively limited with this system, but a few areas along and east of I-75 could see light precipitation Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be noticeably milder Tuesday night, with lows only falling into the 30s and low 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

======= Wednesday - Thursday Night =======

The cold front which begins to drop into the region from the northwest tomorrow is expected to grind to a halt somewhere over the lower Ohio or upper Tennessee Valley during the day on Wednesday. Winds should veer around to the west/southwest, but with the front stalling out, it doesn't look like we'll see much if any cold advection into the area on Wednesday. As a result, it looks like Wednesday should be a relatively mild day, with highs in the 50s in most locations. South central KY will likely see a few spots surpass 60 Wednesday afternoon.

By Wednesday night, the upper trough over the eastern CONUS is expected to broaden/flatten out, with mid- and upper-level flow becoming more zonal over the Ohio Valley. On the western edge of the larger trough, an upper shortwave is expected to develop over the Dakotas/NE and move across the mid-MS Valley by Thursday morning. Downstream from this shortwave, a new area of sfc low pressure should develop along the quasi-stationary front, moving from west to east along the front during the day on Thursday. Moisture return from the Gulf should take place Wednesday night into Thursday, though the strongest IVT anomalies remain along and south of the I- 40 corridor. Precipitation should overspread the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, before ending Thursday evening.

At this time, precipitation types look to be mainly liquid across the area. There is a small proportion of the ensemble membership which features a change to/mix with snow along and north of I-64 if the system tracks farther to the south. This potential solution is reflected in the 23/12Z GFS deterministic. Still, the most likely solution is widespread rain for much of the area. Model soundings do show some elevated instability Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern KY, so a few rumbles of thunder would be possible. However, no severe weather is expected at this time, with sounding profiles showing a stable/saturated profile in the low levels. In general, rainfall amounts should increase the closer you get to the TN border, with ensemble probabilities of exceeding 1" QPF around 50% across the Lake Cumberland area. Flooding concerns are low at this time, with HEFS model solutions showing probabilities of reaching action stage at less than 10% at all river sites.

Otherwise, the temperature forecast will be fairly uncertain on Thursday with good baroclinity over the region and uncertainty as to how far north/south the front will meander. In general, highs in the 40s are more likely north of I-64, with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s more likely in southern KY Thursday afternoon.

========= Friday - Next Weekend =========

After the system clears out of the region Thursday night, dry weather is favored for Friday into the first half of the weekend. While broad troughing will continue into next weekend, the synoptic pattern will remain fairly de-amplified, precluding strong high pressure/cold advection behind the late week system. As a result, mild temperatures should return for Friday and Saturday, with highs warming from the 50s on Friday into the 60s on Saturday. A polar stream disturbance moving across Ontario will push another cold front into the Midwest Saturday afternoon, but this front will likely wash out before pushing through the region. Precipitation chances will increase later in the weekend; however, there's quite a bit of disagreement in the deterministic and ensemble solutions at this time. For now, we'll stick with low chances for precipitation and a modest step down in temperatures as we head into the first days of March.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

NW winds and snow showers will continue into the afternoon but any remaining snow showers or flurries will dissipate eventually later in the evening. Generally MVFR conditions are present now and will continue into the afternoon and early evening, with VFR conditions returning from the west and moving to eastern locations once the snow flurries clear. Light winds tonight are expected along with slowly raising cloud ceilings. VFR conditions are expected tonight and tomorrow morning as high level clouds stick around and a SW wind builds into the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.