textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and sunnier weather for the end of the week into the start of the weekend.

* Potential wintry system Sunday night into Monday that could bring a mix of precipitation types from snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain across the area.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain and warmer temperatures through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 317 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Skies will continue to clear into the overnight hours tonight as our system from earlier today retreats to the east. With surface high pressure filling in over the CWA, as well as relatively calm winds, decent radiational cooling will allow temperatures tonight to drop into the low/mid 30s. There is also the potential for patchy fog to develop in some of the lower valleys, especially over the eastern portions of the area. The surface high will remain over the region through late Saturday, allowing for calm and warm conditions both days. Afternoon highs on Friday will get up into the low 60s, with temperatures on Saturday getting into the mid-to-upper 60s, and some areas close to the Tennessee border reaching 70.

The stretch of quiet conditions will come to an end Saturday night as a front bringing cooler air from Canada moves over the Ohio Valley. The front will come in from the north and slowly shift southward until it stalls over the middle of the CWA by late Sunday. Light precipitation will be possible with this front Saturday night through Sunday morning, mainly in the form of rain. Some places in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will experience a mix of rain and snow with temperatures hovering around freezing there. With the front stalling over Kentucky, a decent spread of temperatures on Sunday afternoon will occur. The northern half of the CWA will only get up into the mid 40s, while the southern half will get into the mid-to-upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 317 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Sunday night into Monday will feature the development of a potential wintry system over the Ohio Valley. A boundary stalled over the Ohio Valley will interact with a shortwave trough coming out of the central Plains. Strong warm, moist air advection ahead of this system will overrun colder air to the north of the stalled boundary. Deterministic models continue to show the development of wintry precipitation ranging from snow, sleet, freezing rain to all rain moving across the region, what remains unknown is that dividing line between P-types. The current discrepancy is the ECMWF is warmer, with the stalled cold front across central/southern IN, this scenario would be mainly a rain event for the area with the bulk of the wintry P-types north of the CWA into central IN. Scenario two is with the GFS, this is colder as it has the cold front saggy further southward, this would bring a swath of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain across our CWA from north to south. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, right now we will continue to highlight more of a wintry mix until we can iron out the details. Main focus will be the potential for impacts Sunday night into Monday morning that would impact the morning commute.

This system moves out by Tuesday morning but we will see the beginning of a warm yet active weather pattern across the Ohio Valley for most of next week as a series of systems develop over the central plains and then move eastward over the region. We will see temperatures go from the 40s on Monday to the upper 60s/low 70s by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 103 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Short wave trough is pushing cold front east, lingering low stratus and even some lingering drizzle is ongoing for RGA and IFR CIGs for LEX/RGA, should start to see this improve over the next few hours with VFR and clearing skies and generally light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and the light precipitation from earlier today and clouds lingering into the afternoon, this could be a setup that we get some patchy fog to develop towards tomorrow morning for RGA/LEX. This will need to be monitored. Other than that winds become more southerly tomorrow morning with VFR conditions continuing.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.