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KEY MESSAGES

* Colder air filters in overnight with a second cold front bringing a chance of snow showers late tonight into tomorrow morning. Significant snow accumulations are not expected but reduced visibility from higher snow bursts are possible.

* Cold and blustery tomorrow with temperatures in the 30s and wind gusts of 25-30 mph making it feel like it is in the 20s.

* Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday before another chance for precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wintry precipitation is possible late next week, but confidence is low at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 857 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Deep cyclonic flow is rotating over the Great Lakes this evening, and central KY and southern IN are currently beneath a mid-level dry slot. Clouds continue to scour out from west to east, and the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions will see gradual clearing over the next 1-2 hours. Mostly clear skies extend back into southern IL/MO. However, a band of low to mid-level clouds stretches along another cold front draped through central IL/MO. That cold front will sweep southeast through the forecast area early Sunday morning, quickly followed by the mid-level trough axis.

The secondary cold front and mid-level trough/vort max will briefly enhance moisture depth and lift as the saturated portion of the column quickly cools into the DGZ through the mid-morning hours. The moisture along the actual cold front looks both narrow (horizontally) and shallow, so any snow between 06-11Z should be brief and fairly light in nature. Forcing isn't all that strong either. However, both moisture depth and lift increase beneath the mid-level trough 11-17Z Sunday. The favored area remains southern Indiana southeast through north-central KY and the Bluegrass Region. Could see a few more intense snow showers evolving southeast across the region during the mid to late morning hours. Sfc temps will be dropping below freezing by this time, so I think we could have at least one or two narrow swaths of snow that briefly coat the roads and cause minor travel concerns. Luckily, it's Sunday morning and these wintry impacts will be quite localized in nature. Otherwise, certainly plan on a cold and blustery day with wind chills stuck in the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 432 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Cold front is pushing through central KY this afternoon with gusty winds of 25-30 mph and a narrow band of scattered rain showers between I-65 and I-75. As the front continue to push eastward, colder air will begin to advect in behind and we will start to dry out and even see some clearing later this afternoon and evening.

Cold air will continue to advect in overnight as the upper low works in over the Great Lakes. A secondary cold front will work across the area just after midnight. Hi-res short range models continue to show a band of precipitation along and ahead of this boundary. Initially, the precipitation could fall as a mix of rain/snow but quickly change over to all snow. Sfc temperatures as the precipitation arrives will be around the mid 30s but expected to fall quickly to near 30 or upper 20s by daybreak. Highest chances for a quick burst of snow looks to be across southern IN, north central KY into the Bluegrass. Impacts remain minimal as ground temperatures will likely still be too warm from the mild temperatures the last couple of days. No more than a dusting on elevated or grassy surfaces is expected. If you are traveling overnight or early tomorrow morning, winds will increase and a quick burst of snow could create low visibility.

The trough axis will follow the cold front and swing through just around daybreak with gusty winds, cold temperatures and a chance for scattered snow showers and flurries through the morning. Models indicate we could see snow squall parameters between 2 and 4 in the morning, with steep low-level lapse rates, while snow squalls are not expected, scattered snow showers and flurries are possible through the first half of the day. With gusty winds of 20-30 mph and temperatures below freezing in the upper 20s to near 20, a quick burst of snow from a shower could still cause some visibility issues if traveling. Clouds will linger a bit during the day and with temperatures only warming into the low to mid 30s, factor in the gusty winds and it will be a cold blustery day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 432 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Clouds will start to clear out tomorrow evening as the upper trough works into the northeast US and sfc high pressure builds in over the Ohio and TN Valleys. Winds will diminish tomorrow evening with the clear skies resulting in cold temperatures in the low/mid 20s by Monday morning. We will remain dry but with temperatures gradually getting warmer by Tuesday. The upper pattern flattens out with a little ridging to increase heights over the region. Sfc high will slide off to the south. This will help to increase southwest flow and allow for some WAA over the next couple of days. Highs in the low/mid 40s on Monday and low/mid 50s by Tuesday. Will also see winds begin to increase Tuesday ahead of the next approaching system working into the Great Lakes out the Upper Midwest and Canada during the day Tuesday.

An upper level trough coming out of Canada is expected to dive south across the eastern CONUS during the mid-week period, bringing a reinforcing cold front through the region on Wednesday. As this front and the upper trough sinks across the Ohio Valley, it will initially have limited moisture, thanks in part to blocking high pressure over the Gulf.

While the deterministic models do agree on this system along with another cold front working into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, there remains some difference with regards to strength of the system, associated upper trough axis as well as if and when the system phases into a sfc low over VA and the Carolinas on Thursday. All of these factors would play a role in the kind of precipitation we would see and when. For now think we see mainly rain with a transition over to wintry mix or snow by Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

What is much higher confidence is that temperatures will drop during the mid- and late-week period as troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. Some model solutions feature a secondary trough bringing a clipper system into the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday which could bring a second chance for light, possibly wintry precipitation. All in all, while the mid-to-late week period should be active, precipitation amounts are expected to be relatively light through early next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 702 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

MVFR stratus is lifting/scattering to VFR from west to east to begin this TAF period with the arrival of a dry slot. Breezy WNW are beginning to diminish as the boundary layer stabilizes, and winds will back out of the SW ahead of a secondary cold front approaching from the NW. Expect SCT-BKN lower clouds (mostly VFR) to return from the NW between 06-12Z Sunday, along with spotty snow showers. Brief MVFR or lower conditions will be possible in scattered snow showers Sunday morning, especially NE of a line from SDF to RGA.

Winds will quickly veer WNW behind the secondary fropa and become gusty, with gusts to 25 kts or so. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday afternoon and evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.