textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with slightly below to near normal temperatures through the end of the week.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall over central and southern Kentucky. 0.75-1.50 inches of rain is expected during this time.

* Drier conditions and a warming trend for the beginning of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Lingering high pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep skies mostly clear and dry throughout today. Areas of patchy fog is possible this morning but does not seem to be impactful. Temperatures today are expected to reach mid 40s in the northern half of the forecast area, and hover around 50 in the southern half. Winds are light and mainly from the NNW throughout the day. A brief period of partially cloudy skies will occur this afternoon, and move out by the night.

Tonight, the mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to radiational cooling through the area. This will keep our minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the region. This could cause slick spots on roadways as liquid from melted snow refreezes. Winds will take a shift and become mainly easterly, but will remain calm.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Friday - Friday Night...

On Friday, ridging will amplify as it moves into the Central Plains. This will increase heights over the lower Ohio Valley slightly, therefore increasing temperatures. Expecting highs in the 50s. At the surface, high pressure will weaken and shift off to the east, which will allow for winds to slowly veer to the south. Overnight, ridging will continue to push east and upper clouds will begin to build in early Saturday morning. Low temperatures will be around freezing.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

Deep troughing will traverse the southern CONUS late week, reaching the SE CONUS over the weekend. Ridging will amplify and move over the lower Ohio Valley on Saturday. This will increase heights and temperatures over the region. We will remain dry through most of Saturday and temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 50s and touching 60.

Saturday evening, a LLJ will push in from the south, helping to increase low-level moisture. Additionally, isentropic lift over the warm front will promote moderate to heavy rainfall beginning Saturday night through most of Sunday. The low pressure center will pass to the south of the region during this event, which will keep the axis of highest QPF south of Kentucky. The current QPF forecast has 0.5-0.75 inches over southern Indiana and 0.75-1.5 inches over central Kentucky. Slightly higher totals will be possible in far southern Kentucky.

Looking at ensembles and cluster analysis, there is good agreement with this system moving over the southern Tennessee Valley. Therefore, this QPF forecast has higher confidence. We should be able to take this amount of water, but ponding in low areas may be possible at times. Looking at river ensembles, none of our rivers are forecasted to reach minor flood with this event.

Monday - Mid Next Week...

High pressure will build in behind, bringing drier conditions. Ridging is expected to build over the region through the middle of next week. This will help to increase temperatures each day. A low pressure system is expected to develop and pass to the north on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, a LLJ will move over the region and introduce a WAA regime. Temperatures on Wednesday may be the warmest of the long term forecast, with temperatures in the 60s and low 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the entire forecast period. Light to calm winds will persist this evening from the ENE will shift SE heading into Friday morning after sunrise. Cloud decks from varying levels will eventually move out and dissipate by Friday morning as well. Clear skies and light winds through Friday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.