textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant weekend in store outside of some scattered rain chances across southern KY later tonight into Sunday. Look for highs in the 70s.

* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with low temperatures in some areas dropping into the 40s/low 50s Monday and Tuesday night.

* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 40s/50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

It's a pleasant day across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky as the area of lower clouds has pushed southward into southern Kentucky. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s/low 70s, with 7-12 mph northeasterly winds. While some lingering clouds could persist into tonight south of the Parkways, some clearing should allow more places in the southern ports of the CWA to experience some sunshine.

For tonight and into tomorrow, a couple of features will skirt by the region before surface high pressure gets reinforced. A shortwave trough and associated weak surface cold front will swing over the Great lakes Region, grazing the far northern portions of the CWA. Another weak wave will pass through the Tennessee Valley, with both features exiting off to our east by Sunday evening. While the northern half of the area will contain fairly little moisture aloft, the northern periphery of a moisture field that extends south to the Gulf will provide enough moisture (1-1.5" PW) to allow for slight chances of rain showers early Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon near the Lake Cumberland region. For places north, expect a dry and mostly sunny day with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some patchy river valley fog is also possible tonight, especially for places that get calm winds and clear skies.

With surface high pressure being reinforced over the region beginning Sunday night, another stretch of dry and comfortable conditions will be in store. Weaker NNE flow will prevail through the early portions of the week, and with decent radiational cooling expected Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 40s/low 50s. Recent guidance did hint at the potential for upper 30s lows Tuesday morning near the Bluegrass Region, but recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended away from this solution, shifting the area of coldest temperatures off to the north and east. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year through Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s along and north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s for places south.

The area of surface high pressure shifts to the east by Wednesday, allowing southerly flow to return to the region. Afternoon highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s, increasing into the low to mid 80s by Friday and Saturday. Decent radiational cooling will keep temperatures on the cooler end, with lows in the upper 40s/low 50s forecast. Saturday morning temperatures will be slightly warmer, with lows in the low to mid 50s expected. While there is uncertainty on the arrival, our next chance for potential rainfall comes late Saturday into Sunday as a surge of tropical moisture pushes northward towards the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Ongoing VFR conditions will continue this evening and through the overnight except for BWG now in high-end MVFR. Ceilings will improve shortly there with low end VFR ceilings this evening. As the night progresses, low-level clouds will scatter out with high level clouds moving over all terminals through Sunday morning. NE winds will lessen with sporadic calm conditions overnight at some terminals. Considering recent conditions, RGA will experience a brief bout of fog temporarily reducing visibilities before sunrise. Sunday morning, high level clouds and patchy fog will be about with a light northerly wind lasting through the afternoon. Eventually, high level clouds clear NW to SE with VFR conditions expected through Sunday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.