textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cloudy skies and cold temperatures continue across the region today.

* Upper level disturbance will drop into the region late tonight and Friday bringing a swath of snow flurries and light snow to the area. Some minor accumulations will be possible.

* Very cold temperatures will continue this weekend with another chance of light snow late Sunday and into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 337 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Morning satellite imagery shows a swath of mid-level stratus across the southwestern half of the forecast area. Mostly cloudy skies were noted generally along and southwest of a line from Owensboro to Fort Knox to Somerset. Under the clouds, temperatures were generally in the lower 20s, but in the clear skies to the northwest, temperatures were in the single digits to the lower teens. A few of our protected areas and typical radiational cooling areas are below zero at this hour (Cynthiana). Freezing fog potential this morning looks to be decreasing by the hour as persistent mid-level status deck remains over the region. We could see some patchy freezing fog across our SE Indiana locations where dewpoint spreads are low. However, a large shield of upper level cirrus is rapidly approaching the region from the northwest, which will shut off radiational cooling and likely limit overall fog production. Most locations will see mostly cloudy skies by dawn and temperatures are expected to bottom out in the next 1-2 hours before stabilizing and perhaps rising slightly toward sunrise.

For the daytime hours, mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day today. Low stratus will likely be seen early this morning with clouds lifting a bit more during the day. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the low-mid 20s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Warmer temperatures will be possible down south of the Parkways where less snowpack is located. Here, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Most locations south of the Cumberland Parkway look to warm above freezing this afternoon.

For tonight through Friday night, the region will remain in a deep cyclonic flow aloft with an upper level trough rotating through the western Great Lakes and dropping toward the Ohio Valley. A swath of mid-level moisture will work its way into the region from the northwest. Enough moisture looks to be present in the DGZ for snow flurries to develop late tonight. As the upper trough drops towards the western Ohio Valley, a NW-SE oriented streak of light snow looks to move across the region. Despite being within 24 hours of this event, still seeing some spread in the models on where this swath of snow develops. The GFS/GEM/Euro/NAMs have the swath mainly from southwest Indiana through north-central KY. On the other hand, the HRRR and some of the WRF runs suggest the snow swath will be more contained across southwestern/southern KY. The models do produce some very light QPF within the ongoing arctic airmass so a dry, but fluffy snow would be seen in this situation. Minor snowfall accumulations of an inch or less look likely.

The timing of this snow looks to impact the Friday morning/afternoon commutes and could result in travel impacts. An impact-based Winter Weather Advisory could be required in subsequent forecast issuances.

Temperatures Friday morning will likely be in the lower teens across the north with lower 20s down across the south. Highs on Friday will generally be in the lower 20s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Upper 20s will be possible across southern Kentucky. Deep northerly flow will be seen across the region Friday night. Model soundings show steep lapse rates and perhaps a bit of a moisture fetch of the Lakes. So scattered snow flurries should continue through the night into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 337 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Upper level trough that is forecast to move through the region on Friday will likely close off into an upper level low over SE TN/NE GA on Saturday. This will result in an east coast storm brining snowfall to the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Most of the accumulating snows look to remain just east of our region. However, we'll have to continue to monitor how far west the upper level low drops as that could bring some lighter snows back toward the I-75 corridor. Deep northerly flow will be seen across the region on Saturday and into Sunday with another re-inforcing shot of Arctic air into the region. Probably will continue to see scattered snow showers/flurries across the region in this regime. Highs on Saturday will likely remain in the teens with lows Saturday night dropping back into the lower single digits and wind chills in the -5 to -10F range. We'll see some moderation of temps on Sunday with highs in the 20s and lows dropping back into the upper single digits/lower teens for Sunday night.

As the east coast storm moves northeast along the coast, we'll see a clipper system dive into the region late Sunday and into the day on Monday. This feature should bring another round of light snows to the region with some minor accumulations. We'll see a brief break in the weather on Tuesday but another weather system looks to approach the region by mid-week yielding another round of wintry weather for the area.

We'll see temps moderate a bit on Monday with highs reaching the upper 20s and lower 30s. Most areas south of the WK/BG Parkways should warm above freezing on Monday. Temps should continue to moderate on Tuesday with highs mainly in the lower-middle 30s in the north with upper 30s in the south. Similar readings are expected for Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows widespread high cloud moving through the region. The cloud cover has prevented radiational cooling and will limit fog production this morning. Could see some lowering of cloud cover down in the KBWG area with the possibility of some very light mist. Cigs will gradually lower during the day but will remain VFR. Winds will be light and variable today though the main wind direction looks to be more of a north to northeast component. Later tonight, look for cigs to drop toward the end of the period with some light snow possible at KSDF/KLEX.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.