textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm days, cool nights, and dry weather will continue through Saturday, including Halloween night.

* Rainfall trends have begun trending down, with PoPs lowered near the 40-50% range, with the potential of remaining dry with an isolated shower increasing on Sunday.

* A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week, with showers and storms possible during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

===== Pleasant Weather Lingers with Increasing Clouds Halloween =====

Ridge of high pressure centered over the Eastern Conus and Northeast will continue to heavily influence our weather conditions for the next few days. This afternoon highs should top out in the mid to upper 70s with any remnant clouds clearing. After sunset this evening, skies will remain clear as low temperatures will fall near where they were this morning, in the mid 40s to low 50s. Patchy river fog is possible again in the morning, so those driving in the deepest river valleys used to seeing this should continue to take care while driving in this persistent, early-morning, and patchy valley fog.

Tomorrow, SW flow surges a little stronger ahead of a slowing cold front that will approach our area from the NNW. Tomorrow's weather won't be much different than today, in fact maybe a touch warmer with highs in the upper 70s and isolated 80s, especially in far southwest and western communities. Clear skies tomorrow morning will begin to cloud over some with high level cirrus streaming in from disturbance that will affect Texas and New Mexico. Otherwise, we are dry and warmer than average. The aforementioned cold front will slowly sag towards our southern Indiana counties in the evening and overnight hours on Thursday into Friday.

Here, there begins discrepancies between short range model solutions. This cold front will very slowly trudge through Indiana and eventually Kentucky through the day on Friday. Even though it is rather slow, it will be aided by a weak high pressure that will try to build from the surface and up to 850 mb or so in our west over Missouri. Combined with the clockwise rotation, there'll be a subtle push of cooler air into our area with northerly winds. How quickly this occurs could drop our highs from their current forecast from the mid 70s to mid 60s and low 70s on Friday. The later the time, the warmer the highs. Clouds will increase during the day and will lower in height, further limiting warming during the day from that disturbance over Texas.

By Halloween, cloudy skies stay put over the entire area as temperatures remain mild near the low 70s. A pattern shift is in store this weekend as the original high over the Northeast moves away and another high from Canada tries to build in. Simultaneously, a stalled boundary along the Gulf Coast may have enough energy to form another low there that could push moisture into our area, although trends have hampered its development. Should a low form, in combination with the weakening ridge, there may be enough of a window of opportunity to surge moisture north into KY. This all depends on the strength and timing of the interaction of the rain with the advancing high. Should the low form too far south near FL, we may actually remain dry Sunday, or just have spotty showers. For now, PoPs have been lowered into the 40-50% range, with anywhere from a trace to as much as 0.5" possible (75% of remaining below 0.5"), with the heaviest totals across the south and lighter heading north. It should be noted that rainfall totals on Sunday are left- skewed towards remaining dry according to RRFS data. Good news is trick-or-treating activities will remain dry on Saturday night!

===== Busy Weather Pattern Next Week =====

Beyond Sunday, spotty showers may remain as southerly flow remains in place with brief ridging on Monday. A substantial trough will be moving through the country, possibly creating a cut-off low that will meander through the southern Plains. However close this gets to our area will depend on how much the jet over Canada can steer the low towards KY. Should the jet remain too far north, our next rain chances will be delayed beyond Wednesday. If the cut-off low can remain far enough north, then a good amount of widespread is possible earlier on Wednesday, lasting through Thursday or Friday. On average, additional rainfall totals range near 0.75-1.25", though this depends on the factors mentioned before. Temperatures will remain near the low 70s or cooler on potentially rainier days like on Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clear skies with winds primarily from the SSW at 3-7 kts will continue this afternoon until sunset, where winds become calm or near calm overnight. Clear skies remain through the overnight and patchy fog remains possible again in the morning, although confidence was too low to include in TAFs. Sunny skies remain Thursday with increasing SW winds of 7-10kts tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions will linger through tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.