textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy south winds and warm temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s through Saturday.

* Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, continuing through this weekend. Wednesday, the severe storm potential is low, but not zero, with a few stronger cores possibly producing gusty winds and small hail.

* Saturday night, a cold front drops high temperatures back to the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This afternoon, warm and breezy conditions are observed across central KY and southern IN, with temperatures ranging from the mid- 70s to the low 80s as of 18Z. A stratocu field which developed this morning across much of the area has started to thin out as drier air aloft mixes with ample near-sfc moisture. Persistent SW flow continues to bring rich moisture into the region, with dewpoints generally in the low-to-mid 60s this afternoon. While showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just to the NW of the region this afternoon, warm and dry air between 5-15k ft AGL is capping convection, and dry weather is likely across the area this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, an upper level shortwave within a band of enhanced westerly flow should help to fire showers and storms across the lower Great Lakes, with storms gradually pushing to the south and east later tonight. These storms should help a cold front to sink toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning, with HREF ensemble mean MSLP fields showing the cold front near I-70 by sunrise Wednesday. As the front drops to the south, low-level SW flow should continue to increase near-sfc moisture, with dewpoints rising into the low-to- mid 60s Wednesday morning. The main uncertainty for the forecast tomorrow is how much forcing and lift the cold front will provide and if it will be sufficient for subsequent convective development as we destabilize during the daytime hours. Marginally stronger forcing will be tied to the front's position, with chances of showers and storms expected to be higher across southern IN and northern KY, tapering off the farther south you go.

With the capping inversion expected to be weaker tomorrow and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected, instability will be plentiful for storms. Soundings show relatively unidirectional W/SW wind profiles, with generally around 25 kt of deep layer shear expected -- fairly modest values for early April. This is due to the fact that the stronger flow aloft will be ejecting well to the north and east of the Ohio Valley, which will also limit overall forcing. If any stronger convective cores can develop, small to marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be possible, particularly along and north of I-64. Convective activity should begin to diminish Wednesday evening as instability dwindles and upper ridging builds again over the region.

Otherwise, tomorrow should be another warm day across the area, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night will be unseasonably mild as lows should only fall into the low-to-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A low pressure system associated with an upper level trough will be tracking NE through the Plains and up through the Great Lakes on Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with gusty winds out of the SSW. There is a high chance (80-90%) that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph. Thursday night, as the boundary pushes through the region, the forecast area can expected a round of showers and possible thunderstorms. Severe potential is low due to the limiting instability factors. Lingering rain showers from the previous system will be possible (50-70%) during the day Friday.

A secondary trough over the northwest develops an associated surface low over the northern plains and takes a similar track into the Great Lakes. A linear system of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon. There is currently a potential for a severe threat with this system, however confidence is still low. By Saturday night, portions of the forecast area could see accumulated rainfall around 1 inch. Best chances for exceeding an inch (60-75%) of rain is in the southern Indiana counties. High temperatures Saturday will reach the mid 80s before they take a significant drop on Sunday behind the cold front. Sunday and Monday's high temperatures only look to reach the high 50s to low 60s across the area. A region of high pressure will then move over the Ohio Valley leading to clear skies to start the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Now that the low-level cu field has mixed above the MVFR/VFR threshold, VFR conditions are expected through most of the current forecast period. The main impact this afternoon is expected to be gusty SW winds, with occasional gusts of 25-30 kt expected through 22-23Z. This evening, winds should become less gusty, with continued S/SW winds expected overnight into Wednesday morning. As the near- sfc inversion sets up tonight, marginal LLWS is expected at all sites, with around 35 kt of SW winds expected around 2-3k ft AGL. Early Wednesday morning, a cold front will approach the area from the NW. This should allow scattered showers and storms to develop by the end of the current forecast period; however, confidence in timing and coverage is fairly low at this time. MVFR CIGs are also possible Wednesday morning, especially at HNB, but confidence is fairly low at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.