textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and sunnier weather continues through Saturday.

* Light rain is possible Saturday night.

* Potential wintry system Sunday night into Monday that could bring a mix of precipitation types north of Interstate 64 and rain south of 64. The Monday morning commute could see minor impacts.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain and warmer temperatures through much of next week. A few rounds of storms are also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

While a mildly amplified trough continues to sit over the eastern CONUS, an area of surface high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley, allowing for warm and calm conditions to continue through Saturday afternoon. The center of the surface high will drift to the east tonight, allowing for southwesterly winds to slightly increase overnight. This will greatly reduce the chances for fog tonight, as well as limit how cold overnight temperatures get. Lows will be in the low 40s across most of the CWA, with some places in southern Indiana dropping into the high 30s. For Saturday, afternoon temperatures will get up into the mid-to-upper 60s, with some places near the Tennessee border potentially reaching 70.

The pattern will begin to shift Saturday night as a relatively weak surface trough and subsequent cold front move in over the Ohio Valley. Rain is possible as the wave moves over, with current forecast accumulations of less than 0.10". Even with the cold front moving southward overhead, cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the low-to-mid 40s. Conditions will be dry and mostly cloudy on Sunday, with the cold front stalling out over central Kentucky. This frontal placement will result in a decent spread of afternoon temperatures over the CWA, with the northern counties only getting into the upper 40s and the southern counties rising into the mid-to- upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Sunday Night - Monday...

Interesting setup for Sunday night into Monday as a strong ~1040 mb surface high pressure moves from the central Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes, with its southern influence extending into our region. A weak frontal boundary is expected to be positioned to our south on the southern fringes of this surface high pressure, with a notable temperature gradient expected across our CWA Sunday night. Lows around 30 across our northern CWA, and highs around 40 across our southern CWA are expected. Light precipitation is expected to develop across our area late Sunday night into Monday morning as a decent low level jet around 35-40 knots responds beneath a mid to upper level impulse. This will create an overrunning scenario that will likely lead to a mixed precipitation event across our northern third or so of the CWA (think I-64 and northward). The biggest concern is that this mixed precipitation would fall as we get into the Monday morning commute, however there are several limiting factors to possible impacts, so confidence remains low, especially along the I-64 corridor. Slightly higher confidence for a few impacts would just a bit farther north of the I-64 corridor.

First off, the overall thermal profile looks to be pretty marginal, and with a possible warm nose coming into play thanks to the low level jet response, current forecast snow ratios would only be around 5 to 1. In addition, we will be quite mild this weekend ahead of this precipitation event, so thinking that roadway/surface temps will likely lag ambient air temperature a good bit going into Monday morning. This combined with surface temps only getting down into the 30 to 35 degree range along and north of the I-64 corridor makes chances for impactful accums a little lower. Rates would be the one thing that could change that, and we all know that rates combined with a Monday morning commute usually results in some issues. So, won't rule out that an impact based advisory may be need for somewhere along and north of I-64, but at this time it feels like any threat is mainly confined to areas north of that corridor where a dusting to half inch of some snow, a bit of sleet, or even a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces seems possible. Overall, don't think it will be a big deal, but one we will have to keep a close eye on trends and factor the morning commute. The warm nose placement and strength will be the biggest contributor to p-type, and as usual, there are milder and cooler solutions to navigate with this system. We are carrying just a glaze of ice for some areas north of I-64 across SE Indiana and far northern KY, but again, think this would mainly be on elevated surfaces and not impactful to roads. The best likelihood for any minor impacts from a wintry mix would be 4 AM to 10 AM EST Monday morning.

By late morning to midday, expect that temps would be rising above freezing, however lingering light rain showers are likely with overrunning continuing, especially across the northern half of the CWA.

Monday Night - Friday...

An increasingly mild and and active weather stretch will then set up for the remainder of the work week as several waves eject through the zonal flow across the country and ride roughly parallel to a wavering surface frontal boundary over or near our region. We look to stay largely on the mild side of the boundary which will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s through mid to late week. More of the low and mid 70s especially by late week as deeper SW flow takes hold of the area between more amplified western CONUS troughing and SE CONUS ridging. Given that this pattern will likely extend beyond the current forecast range, concern continues to grow for potential rounds of flooding and/or severe weather with stronger surface lows passing to our NW from the mid Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes. Much will depend on the eventual position of the surface boundary with each wave, and the strength of the SE CONUS ridging and its ability to hold up progress into our area as well. Hard to imagine we'll get through this highly active pattern without at least a round or two of severe and/or flash/river flooding potential. It is early though, so will have to continue to monitor. For context, the NSSL Machine Learning site has our area in at least 5-10% contours for severe weather starting Thursday 3/5, and lasting through day 14 Thursday 3/12. These can be overdone in the extended, but it is worth noting the overall pattern supports this potential for any given day in that stretch. On the flooding side, CPC has outlook our area in a Moderate risk of heavy precipitation and flooding going into the later part of the first week, and second week of March. Depending on how that all plays out, river flooding could come into play as well, especially the later in that stretch we get.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist from now and through the day on Saturday. Currently, winds of 5-10 kts from the southwest will gradually weaken area wide as a moisture starved cold front pushes south from Indiana and settles between SDF/BWG oriented SW to NE. North of this front, light winds of 4-7 kts will shift out of the north and east while areas further south in BWG will keep a light SW wind. SW winds return for the whole area by Saturday afternoon keeping VFR conditions with mid level SCT-BKN clouds returning near 0Z Saturday evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.