textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Falling temperatures into the 20s this morning could lead to elevated and untreated surfaces to refreeze and produce black ice for the morning commute.

* Mainly dry with below normal temperature expected through the middle of the week.

* Warm-up into the 40s by Friday with a passing clipper system that could bring precipitation, mainly in the form of light snow for parts of the Bluegrass on Friday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 407 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

The main concern through the morning will be the potential for wet, untreated roads to refreeze as temperature continue to fall into the 20s. Per the KY Mesonet, temperatures were ranging in the low 30s with most areas north and along the parkways as areas towards the south were still above freezing. While there was some concern for freezing drizzle, we haven't seen much of that reported but we do have some mist and fog being reports. Surfaces that could potentially see some black ice towards morning will be elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses and any untreated snow cover surfaces.

While the bulk of the precipitation has moved out of the area, linger low clouds are expected through most of the day. Cold temperatures return with high ranging from the low 30s to mid 20s through the northern half of our CWA, while locations to the south will get above freezing but still be in the mid 30s. It will also feel blustery with a fairly steady northerly wind between 10-15 mph, creating wind chill values in the 20s.

Sfc high pressure will continue to build in from the west and north today into tomorrow. We expect clouds to break for some clearing overnight into tomorrow morning. Depending on how much we can clear will determine how cold temperatures get by Thursday morning. Current forecast has temperature in the teens with light northerly winds.

Weak high pressure works in over the Ohio Valley keeping the weather dry for tomorrow. While we remain under northwest flow aloft, CAA will continue keeping lingering clouds and well below normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday will he colder than today with more locations staying below 30 under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 407 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Our persistent pattern that features strong riding across the west and troughiness along the east will continue to keep the Ohio Valley under northwest flow aloft. Another clipper system embedded in the upper-level flow will work from the NW to the SE across the Great Lakes Thursday night and into the eastern Ohio Vally during the day on Friday. The forecast continues to indicate strong WAA ahead of this system allowing temperatures to warm into the low and mid 40s across much of the area. It's possible we could see an isolated 450 across southern KY along the KY/TN border. As for the precipitation chances with this system, trend continues to keep the best chances (30-40 percent_ across the Bluegrass mainly along and east of the I- 75 corridor. Timing of this system is trending more towards Friday morning and mainly light snow or a mix of rain/snow. Current confidence remains low that this will be an impactful event but it will need to be monitored.

For the weekend and beyond, we remain under the dry NW flow aloft. It's possible another weak system arrives Saturday night Sunday but currently it is expected to take a similar track as the Friday system and this brings even lower chances for precipitation to the area. Current forecast keeps the weekend dry with highs ranging from the low/mid 30s for the northern CWA and upper 30s to near 40 across the south. WAA ahead the next clipper will once again help to boost temperatures on Sunday into the 40s and even a few possible 50s. Finally looks like we break our very cold streak of weather early next week with more days seeing 40s and even 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Post system we still have IFR CIG from BWG to RGA along with mist, haze and fog with VIS around 4sm and at times been as low as 3/4sm. For HNB-SDF-LEX we've seen some improvement to VFR but a low stratus deck across northern/central IN is moving southward and is expected to fill back in later today with a return of MVFR flight categories around 17/18z, once that fills back in it should stick around through the rest of the day and evening before improving again overnight with the exception of RGA which may go back down to IFR in the early morning hours.

As for winds, they will remain pretty consistent out of the north around 10kt before diminish after 00z later tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.