textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Storms continue to push through the area, bringing localized flash flooding potential and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall rates. * Another soupy overnight tonight will bring areas of dense fog and limited cooling potential.

* Tomorrow evening brings a chance for severe thunderstorms to Southern Indiana, dependent upon adequate surface heating and time of clearing.

* Cooldown and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

**********Rounding Out Today's storms into Tonight*************

Ongoing storms across the region will continue through this evening. A few spotty lines will likely move through, right now about two waves are visible but model data is pointing toward a third forming around sunset in isolated pockets that still contain reasonable instability. With these showers, widespread minimum rainfall totals will be .5" for the CWA north of the parkways; isolated values in the .45" have already fallen and rain is expected to continue. Additionally, local values in the 2-4" range are still possible given the moisture-loaded soupy environment. Training is a possible threat if storms slow down around sunset, but at the moment things are moving along nicely, just dumping rain. Flash flooding may be possible in known flash-ier spots, but river/stream flooding is unlikely.

Overnight, we are unlikely to dry out. Lows in the upper 60s and dews at the same means we will see fog, potentially dense fog, in areas that received rainfall but are not actively raining. This will certainly include river valleys and low-lying areas, and will likely persist beneath cloud cover.

****************Tomorrow's Heat and S IN Storms******************

As the sun rises tomorrow, we aren't likely to see it as cloud cover will persist throughout the day. However, that doesn't mean we get rid of the heat - expect around the 90 degree mark in Bowling Green and low 80s across the northern half of the CWA. We should start clearing around noon in patches, with widespread clearing around sunset. On the off-chance that Southern IN does see earlier clearing, severe storms are possbile in the evening hours. The wind profile is ideal for low-level directional shear and upper-level speed shear, with a hodograph favorable for a low-end tornadic threat. While this is a tornadic environment, there are too-many "if"s involved in this statement to portray any kind of confidence of occurence; this is outlooked in the Day 2 SPC forecast with the majority of the threat pushing toward central IN and OH. Thundershowers across S IN have a timeframe of about 2pm-10pm.

*******************3-Day Weekend Forecast************************

Friday we see a cold front move through the area in the afternoon. Our high temps will come just after sunrise, with highs in the low 60s (S IN) to 70 degree mark (Bowling Green, Campbellsville, Richmond) and a 75 degree high toward Albany, KY. We are breezy all day, with sustained speeds in the 10-15 kt range and gusts up to 25 kt. Cloud cover and some spotty showers arrive with our front, and overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s.

Saturday and Sunday are firmly in the pleasant fall weather territory, with highs in the 55-65 range and overnight lows around 40 on Saturday night and pushing frost territory in the mid-30s Sunday night. Clear skies should remain all Saturday and Sunday.

Next week stays dry, and we get to keep the seasonable temperatures for a while longer. Our next chance of rain should arrive around the 24th.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fog and low lying stratus behind a cold front that has settled just north of BWG. VLIFR-low end MVFR north of the front will continue through the overnight with calm to very light southerly winds. Should fog never form in some areas, low-lying stratus will keep ceilings below MVFR. BWG may avoid the worst of the conditions, with SW flow remaining although the threat of low-lying stratus and MVFR is still possible. By late morning on Thursday, the front will lift north, switching winds out of the SW across all terminals, clearing fog, and gradually lifting ceilings from south to north. PROB30s were included for showers across terminals, with maybe a storm in the afternoon at HNB. VFR rules should return tomorrow afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.