textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Colder weather for today, with high temperatures only in the upper 20s. Similar temperatures expected for Monday too.

* Breezy, snow showers will continue to move through the region this afternoon and evening. A few snow squalls may be possible for the Bluegrass, along with snow accumulations up to 1 inch expected.

* Temperatures gradually warm next week with a messy weather pattern in store. Small chance of rain Tuesday with a greater chance Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Through Sunset...Scattered snow showers will continue to stream through the region. These showers will bring brief periods of moderate snowfall, reductions in visibilities, and snow accumulations up to an inch. We continue to see steep lapse rates, 40-50 J/kg of SBCAPE, gusty winds, and good low-level RH, which could bring a few snow squalls this afternoon and into the evening. SPSs have been continued over the northeastern half of the region through 0Z.

Tonight... The developing nor'easter and the parent trough will continue to strengthen and begin to push northeast. Low to mid level moisture will taper off from SW to NE overnight, which will decrease snow chances. The pressure gradient will remain tight over the region, which will keep gusting WNW winds up to 30mph. Continued CAA will bring temperatures into the upper teens and low 20s on Monday morning. With cold temperatures and windy conditions, it will feel blustery with minimum wind chills in the 4-9F range.

Monday... Northwest flow aloft will keep CAA and cold temperatures over the area. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the low-mid 30s. NW gusts up to 30mph will continue through the afternoon. Because of these winds, this will create a strong fetch off of Lake Michigan, which will bring some light snow to the northeastern half of the region during the late morning and early afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected. Towards the end of the day, the pressure gradient will slacken and troughing will push off to the east. This will allow skies to thin from west to east and winds to steadily relax.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

===== Tuesday and Wednesday =====

On Tuesday, the effects of the deep trough over the east will exit and a weak, temporary mid level to low level ridge will build in. Tuesday morning will be very cold, as temperatures then are expected to be in the mid teens to low 20s. However, this bitter cold will be short-lived once the overall synoptic pattern changes later in the day. At the surface on Tuesday morning, high pressure will quickly shift to our south, changing our NNW flow to a SW flow, moderating our temperatures into the low to upper 40s. As this ridge weakens and shifts south, another trough will trek across the Great Lakes. Current trends is keeping the bulk of the moisture to our north and east. Wind and QPF guidance suggests the same with a weak frontal passage, keeping us rain free. For now, will leave PoPs out but there is potential for some rain showers later in the day, favoring northern areas for some light rain. Additionally, with the tightening pressure gradient as the trough moves to our north, there may be some gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Eventually, winds die down in the overnight heading into Wednesday.

Messy pattern continues through mid week, though Wednesday is a tale of being between two storms. A surface high tries to build in but with the overall troughing pattern, it's only expected to linger into early Wednesday afternoon as another trough approaches from the west. Highs with a SW flow should range from the mid 50s to near 60 in southern areas. Clouds will begin to build late on Wednesday ahead of the next system. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning trend warmer with low to upper 40s.

===== Thursday - Saturday =====

During the very early to late morning hours, another trough with a surface low pressure intensifying from lee cyclogenesis will move into the Ohio Valley, dropping a decent amount of rain with snow on the cold side of the low on the shores of Lake Michigan. Guidance is still unsure of the timing for this storm, though this storm could be aided with forcing for ascent from jet dynamics. Rain should begin falling sometime during the morning hours and could last most of the day. Forecast confidence remains low on totals though decent rainfall totals and storms can't be ruled out. Depending on the timing of this system, it may clear Thursday night though some models want to slow the progression and increase the isentropic lift to prolong the rain in the area. Regardless, Thursday looks to be warmer than normal with at least some clouds sticking around Thursday night.

As this system rolls through into Friday morning, rain may linger early in the morning, but otherwise, the rest of Friday will be drier and with mild temperatures. Weak ridging will build into the Ohio Valley and conditions should be calm Friday evening. Expect more calm weather on Saturday as well, with a near zonal jet expected to keep weather nearly consistent between Friday and Saturday as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Low stratus has blanketed the region with mostly high-end MVFR and low-end VFR CIGs. Snow showers will continue to move through the region through sunset. In show showers, VIS may drop to IFR and CIGs to low-end MVFR. We will see a brief break in snow showers, before chances pick back up over the Bluegrass in the early morning hours. WNW winds will continue to gust up to 28kts through this TAF cycle.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.