textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Quick moving clipper system will bring a period of wintry weather to the region today, mainly across southeastern Indiana and into northeastern Kentucky. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for the northeastern fringe of the CWA, where around 1 inch of snow is possible.

* Additional light snow chances are possible tonight as lake- enhanced bands drop southward across the region.

* The weekend will start off cold, but model trends continue to show warming temperatures late this weekend and into next week. The next chance of precipitation, in the form of rain, arrives by Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

This morning, SW flow is beginning to increase across the region ahead of a clipper system which is crossing Lake Michigan as of 08Z. This SW flow is helping to push a band of stratus to the east, with a few hours of clear skies expected this morning, especially along and west of I-65. Temperatures have remained fairly steady since Thursday evening, with most locations in the 20s this morning.

Over the next 6-12 hours, the aforementioned clipper system will quickly dive across the Midwest, entering southern IN and northern KY by a few hours after sunrise. The orientation of the bands within the system suggest the main swath of precipitation will head toward Cincinnati and eastern KY, though additional development has been noted on the SW flank over the past few hours. Current SPC mesoanalysis reveals a strong low-to-mid level temperature gradient out ahead of this system, with the warm sector of the cyclone trying to erode the colder air mass from west to east before the trailing cold front swings through. This thermal ridge axis is expected to push into our area immediately ahead of the precipitation this morning, with the vast majority of precipitation remaining on the cold side of the boundary.

The 00Z and preliminary 06Z hi-res guidance have been fairly consistent, with the HRRR continuing with a more northeasterly storm track while the NAM 3km and RRFS have more precipitation to the southwest. The majority of the precipitation today should fall to the east of a line roughly from Seymour, IN to McKee, KY, with limited amounts to the immediate southwest of this line.

In the areas which are most likely to receive measurable precipitation today, mainly the Bluegrass region of KY and portions of southeast IN, thermal profiles will be fairly marginal, with model soundings showing a layer of above freezing wet-bulb temps aloft surging out ahead of the precipitation. The key to getting measurable snow will be heavier precipitation rates, which should help to drag down colder air aloft as well as saturate into the DGZ. Cross-sections do show fairly weak mid-level stability and neutral/slightly negative EPV as this system passes, suggesting that heavier banded precipitation will be possible. 0Z HREF data suggests that there should be a pretty sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts, with the best chances for 1+ inch of snow across our northeastern Bluegrass counties (i.e., Harrison, Nicholas, Bourbon, Clark). With the latest trends in hi-res guidance, see no need to expand the winter weather advisory, with the SPS continuing to highlight the potential for brief light accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The main swath of precipitation will clear quickly behind the sfc cold front, with the main window for wintry precipitation expected between 14-21Z today.

Most of the southern and western portions of the CWA (e.g., Jasper, Tell City, E-town, Campbellsville, Bowling Green, Glasgow, Russellville, etc.) should remain mostly dry today, with the primary sensible weather impacts being increasing/veering winds and increasing clouds with cold FROPA. Locations which remain dry today will also have a decent shot to warm into the 40s until cold advection sets in behind the cold front.

Late this afternoon into this evening, strong north-northwesterly flow behind the cold front should send temperatures falling, especially after sunset. Typical post-frontal stratus should continue this evening into the early overnight hours tonight. Given the low-level wind field, a few streamer bands off of Lake Michigan should be able to make it into southern IN and central KY tonight, resulting in bands of snow showers which could result in a quick coating of snow. Outside of these more focused bands, falling temperatures aloft should lead to the stratus layer eventually cooling to near the DGZ, so scattered flurries outside of the concentrated bands will be possible as well. By early Saturday morning, hi-res guidance does show some clearing, from north to south, with the exception of areas stuck under the influence of the streamer band. Temperatures should range from the high single digits across portions of the Bluegrass to the low 20s across southwestern KY Saturday morning, with wind chills near zero in the coldest locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Sunday through Early Next Week...

Deep northerly flow will be in place over the region Saturday morning, with cold advection keeping temperatures suppressed during the day on Saturday. The majority of model guidance has the broader fetch of low stratus clearing out of the region during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, with a narrower streamer band of moisture off of Lake Michigan continuing to bring some clouds near the I-65 corridor later into the day on Saturday. As the 925 mb ridge axis makes its way into the area Saturday afternoon, northerly flow should subside, and clearing skies are expected in most areas. Areas which do see sunshine on Saturday will be fortunate, as temperatures will struggle to warm into the mid-20s, especially over the areas with deepest snow cover. In southern KY where snow cover is less prevalent, highs should reach the low 30s.

Another cold night is expected Saturday night, although increasing cloud cover Sunday morning may temper the amount of cooling. This increasing cloud cover will be associated with a mid-level speed max which should drop across OH/WV early Sunday morning. While there are still a few ensemble members which show light QPF (falling as snow) across the Bluegrass region, the preponderance of guidance remains dry, so we'll keep a dry forecast going at this time.

After that disturbance passes, sfc high pressure will shift east across the Appalachians on Sunday, bringing warmer southerly flow into the area from Sunday afternoon into the first half of next week. As the previous forecaster mentioned, how quickly we warm up will be modified by the existing snow cover, with models that show deeper/more expansive snow cover tending to be colder than the models with less snow cover. While the models/NBM overall are likely too warm, there is still high confidence in a warming trend during the Sunday-Tuesday period. Monday looks like a pretty good opportunity to melt away some of the snow pack with temperatures warming and a decent amount of sunshine. By Tuesday, upper-level ridging should spread across the area, with temperatures returning to above normal levels for the first time since around January 14th.

Middle of Next Week...

A cutoff upper low which will slowly move from Baja California across the southwest US over the next 3-4 days is expected to eject toward the region by next Tuesday. At the surface, a baroclinic zone should set up to the northwest of the Ohio Valley by next Tuesday, with sfc low pressure riding along this boundary during the middle of next week. While this system doesn't look particularly strong at this time, there should be enough moisture return ahead of this disturbance for precipitation to develop during the second half of the day on Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday. With the warming temperatures early next week, ensemble p-type guidance continues to show all rain, at least with the bulk of the precipitation. Current most likely precipitation amounts are around 0.25", with reasonable high end (90th percentile) rain totals around 1".

Behind this system, there has been a shift in the extended range guidance for the second half of next week, with models trending toward deeper troughing developing along the east coast of North America. This would support cooler and drier conditions than previously anticipated, though we'll continue to watch over the next few days to see if this is a trend or just an outlier run.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 645 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

The back edge of the MVFR stratus should clear LEX/RGA in the next hour, with VFR conditions returning at all forecast sites for at least a few hours this morning. Winds will increase and gradually veer from S/SW to SW this morning, with 20+ kt gusts becoming more likely after 15Z. A band of wintry precipitation is expected to sink across the region ahead of a cold front between 14-20Z, with the best chance for snow at LEX/RGA. SDF, HNB, and BWG are more likely than not to remain dry through this afternoon, with the main impact of the front being a wind shift from SW to NW and the return of MVFR stratus. At LEX/RGA, the likelihood of IFR VIS from snow showers has decreased, but still can't rule out a brief window in any moderate snow bands.

This evening into tonight, MVFR stratus is expected with scattered flurries and light snow showers moving across the region. Have included PROB30 mention to account for this at several forecast sites. Stratus should begin to clear by the end of the current forecast period, with winds gradually easing and veering toward the north by sunrise Saturday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ032-033-035>037-041>043-049. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for INZ079.