textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather expected, but cannot rule out an isolated shower and storm this afternoon across southern Kentucky.

* Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with small chances for afternoon rain and storms each day. Highest chance for widespread showers and storms will be on Friday.

* Heat indices will range from 98-103 Wednesday through the end of the week and into the weekend.

* More daily shower and storm chances appear possible for the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A rex block upper level pattern takes place today, with the upper level high across the upper Midwest, and the upper low to the south across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern will linger for Wednesday as well, leading to a mostly dry period for our area, with the exception of a low-end chance for a shower or storm to sneak into our far south-central KY counties along the TN border during the afternoon both for today and tomorrow. Any isolated storms that do pop up later today will be slow movers and mostly unorganized due to the lack of substantial shear. However, there will likely be a large amount of CAPE today due to the strong heating (SBCAPE > 2000 J/kg), and CAM soundings show quite a bit of dry air in the profile to support high DCAPEs. If a storm is able to develop a tall enough core and be somewhat organized, there could be upwards of 1000 J/kg of DCAPE to support a localized wind threat. The isolate storm threat ends by 00-01z tonight, but will be a possibility again tomorrow across our south.

Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for mid-July, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the area. Tomorrow's high will be a touch warmer as the upper ridge continues to build. However, heat indices will not be departed too far from the ambient temps for today, though some heat indices near 100F will be possible for Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

===== Thursday - Friday =====

Very weak flow will be present across the Ohio Valley for the end of the week, with broad upper ridging stretching across the country. We could see a very weak backdoor cold front approach from the NE, which will result in increasing dewpoints and rain chances. Thursday features a 30-40% chance, but there are higher chances on Friday as a subtle embedded shortwave brings some vorticity across the Ohio Valley. PoPs for Friday peak around 60% for the afternoon. Model soundings for Thursday do not show more than 15kts in the entire column, but indicate plenty of CAPE and DCAPE values for some pop-up stationary thunderstorms during the afternoon. Friday will feature a similar forecast with nearly stationary pop-up thunderstorms, but should be more precip coverage than Thursday with a bit more favorable forcing. PWATs will be quite high still, between 1.8-2", so efficient rainfall rates continue to be possible.

Hot temperatures remain possible for late week with forecast highs in the lower 90s for both days. However, with sfc dewpoints rising into the 70s, that will yield heat indices above 100 for both days and in most locations. NBM probs currently show at least a 50% chance of sfc dewpoints greater than 75F Thursday afternoon west of I-65.

===== Weekend into Next Week =====

A large dome of high pressure will set up over the Mountain West over the weekend and block any upper level flow across the eastern half of the US, and will result in the downstream flow to sink into a stagnant upper trough across the eastern third of the US. This will support daily diurnally-driven shower and storms chances across the region for Saturday through at least Monday.

Temps during this time frame remain right near or slightly above normal, with highs this weekend linger into the upper 80s and lower 90s, but a slight downward trend for next week with mid-80s possible for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 652 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Pleasant flight conditions continue today with VFR weather. A brief period of MVFR or IFR conditions are possible at BWG at the beginning of the period, but otherwise they should be VFR for the rest of the period. Winds from the ENE today.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.