textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and storms will continue this afternoon and evening mainly south and west of Louisville until sunset.

* Dry weather and seasonable temperatures from a strong surface high is expected from Tuesday through most of the week.

* General showers and storm chances increase this weekend along with highs in the upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This Evening - Tuesday Night...

General broken cloud cover is moving west to east now and will eventually clear the area overnight. Interestingly, there is a mesolow moving SE over our western counties, creating a visible swirl in cloud cover on visible satellite imagery. This will continue to move SE and out of the area by nightfall. As this exits, a surface high pressure centered over southern Canada will usher in much drier air overnight, clearing skies by the early morning hours on Tuesday. Along the leading edge of the advancing dry air mass, there may be just enough lift to create a few more showers or a weak storm in our SW CWA where higher PWAT values are now, though PoPs will remain at or below 30% just before sunset. Any additional rainfall will be below 0.1", especially with the loss of daytime heating. Light N/NE winds will dominate overnight reinforcing cooler drier air for Tuesday.

Morning lows on Tuesday will be slightly cooler than today's, with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s along the TN border. The surface high pressure over southern Canada will begin moving southward, reinforcing a dry NE flow throughout the day on Tuesday. As noted in the last forecast discussion, the strength of this high is abnormally strong. With 80th - 90th percentile of MSLP moving in, the resultant pressure gradient will be enough for a breezy day tomorrow. Wind gusts around 20mph are expected with this set up as well. Furthermore, the dry air moving in by morning will be very dry, with dewpoints reaching the mid 40s to low 50s. PWATs throughout the day will be very low as well, reaching the 10th - 20th percentile range. Considering this, fog formation seems very unlikely (<10%) across the CWA. Despite a few passing clouds in the afternoon hours, Tuesday seems to be an enjoyable day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and low dew points in the 40s and low 50s. As the Canadian surface high continues to drift southward, skies will remain mostly clear overnight Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday - Friday...

With this strong Canadian high overhead Wednesday morning, strong subsidence and the continued dry NE flow will keep climatological PWAT values hovering near the 20th percentile. Morning temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s before warming into the upper 70s and low 80s again by the afternoon. Skies should remain mostly clear throughout the day again, leading to another pleasant day to be outdoors. Winds should be slightly weaker as the center of the high will be close by, meaning a weaker pressure gradient will be present, though lighter breezy winds will continue in the afternoon. Later overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, this high pressure will break down and push towards the SE coast, switching the general synoptic flow out of the SW by Thursday morning. As a result, warmer temperatures and dew points will filter their way back into the CWA. By Thursday afternoon, highs will be warmer in the mid 80s, though remaining dry from the continued subsidence.

Broad ridging throughout the low to high levels of the troposphere will begin funneling in warm air from the southwest. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Next Weekend...

Beyond Friday, long range guidance is forestalling this coming weekend's rain chances from an incoming trough. Due to the strength of the SE ridge, the general trend is to prolong our expected dry stretch until Sunday afternoon, though some models bring in rain chances on Saturday. Increasing moisture transport from the SW over the weekend introduces low end PoPs around 30-40% for general thunderstorms. Similar to a summer set up, storms would pop up during the afternoon and dissipate during the evening hours. Should the SE ridge move further away, the incoming trough from the Plains could increase moisture transport over the CWA for more widespread showers and storms. PWATs will increase this coming weekend but until timing and the strength of the SE ridge can be determined, low end PoPs for the weekend will be included in the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the evening. Light winds generally from the N/NE will persist, becoming more NE overnight and into the morning. BWG may see remnant showers later this evening, otherwise everyone remains dry. BKN-OVC skies with VFR ceilings remain overnight, quickly becoming SCT to FEW by the morning. Much drier air with wind gusts up to 20kts moves in Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions linger through Tuesday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.