textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty showers continue to push east through the area this afternoon. A few storms may be possible, but severe threat is diminishing. However, showers are producing gusty winds, and could see gusts up to 35-45 mph through the afternoon. Widespread rainfall amounts up to 1 inch expected due to these heavy downpours.

* Chilly Easter morning and cool high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Cold nights ahead through Tuesday night next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

It is warm and breezy today, with some sunshine to our east, but increasing clouds filling in from the west as a line of showers spreads across the area. Considerable temperature ranges are noted on the KY Mesonet, with low 80s in the east due to more sunshine and daytime heating, but upper 60s to the west of I-65 where rain-cooled air and clouds have knocked down temps. This line of showers are now making their way into the I-65 corridor, and will continue to gradually push east through the rest of today. This line has been slowly losing intensity through the afternoon, likely due to a lack of substantial instability and meager mid-level lapse rates. The better instability has been to our east where less cloud cover has been, and the CAPE axis has sort of been outpacing the precip shield. The LLJ core has moved northeast and is now over parts of IN and OH, providing better forcing to our north and northeast. However, we are still seeing gusty winds with these showers, which are capable of pulling down some higher momentum winds, resulting in isolated wind gusts of 35-45mph possible.

Regional radar mosaic showers more convection occurring in western TN, which will be worth watching over the next few hours as they eventually sneak into south-central KY. However, latest CAM soundings continue to show meager instability and mid-level lapse rates, though still plenty of unidirectional shear to pose a wind threat. Beside the low end severe threat, PWATs are observed reaching up to 1.5-1.6" across the OH/TN Valleys, which is at the top end of sounding climo, and will support heavy downpours through the afternoon. We are getting a strong moisture fetch into the area, so expect rainfall amounts up to 1 inch possible with these downpours. Fortunately, these showers should be progressive enough to limit flooding issues, but could see some ponding on roadways or minor flooding issues in our typical low-lying or flood-prone areas.

Rain activity will continue through this evening, and should see it eventually shift east of I-65 around or slightly after 06z tonight, and eventually clear our entire area before 12z tomorrow morning. The cold front will slide through later this evening too, noted by a wind shift from SW flow to cooler NW direction. This FROPA will also usher in cooler temps, which will likely occur before midnight and most likely end any chances for breaking warm min records for another day.

Temperatures will bottom out in the 40s for tomorrow morning. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Easter Sunday, though temps will be much cooler with highs only in the upper 50s and low 60s due to the CAA regime.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

===== Sunday Night - Tuesday Night =====

The upper trough axis will be pushing east of the Ohio Valley by Sunday night, which will bring an extended period of notably cooler temperatures and drier weather for the upcoming week. Monday will feature plenty of sunshine and temps around normal in the 60s. Strong Canadian sfc high pressure will move across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, which will lead to cooler temps only in the 50s. However, the main focus will be on frost/freeze potential for early next week, as we could see multiple mornings with temps cool enough for frost potential. Both Monday and Tuesday morning will have temps get down into the 30s, with areas of frost possible mainly across southern IN, north-central KY, and the Bluegrass areas.

===== Wednesday - Friday =====

Wednesday morning will also feature temps in the 30s, and looks to be another candidate for frost development across southern IN and the Bluegrass. However, the upper flow turns more zonal, and the sfc high shifts off to our east, which will open us up to warmer return flow. Temps are expected to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s on Wednesday. The rest of the week will gradually warm up, with highs in the 70s on Thursday, and closer to 80 on Friday. We'll maintain a dry forecast during this time, with the only hint of perhaps some light precip in the GFS ensemble, with the Euro and Canadian ensembles dry through the week. Our next decent shot for rain may not arrive until Saturday morning ahead of a cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions ongoing where rain has not yet arrived, but expect deteriorating conditions to spread as showers move east this afternoon. There remains a low chance for thunder, so will continue with a TEMPO group this afternoon. Shower chances will linger through the afternoon, impacting cigs to MVFR. Otherwise, expect gusty SSW winds to prevail until the front passes through later tonight, which will then switch our winds to a NNW flow. There could be a brief period of IFR conditions as the front slides through tonight. Conditions will improve by tomorrow behind the front, with VFR expected.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.