textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions will continue today. Afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range.

* The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring widespread rainfall and wind gusts up to 35 mph over the weekend. Most areas will receive between 0.75" and 1.5" of rainfall, though localized areas may receive up to 3 inches.

* Dry and warm weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

=== Warm and Dry Today ===

High pressure is pushing off to the east this morning, which is allowing for very light winds to veer to the southeast. Mild dry air mix down is expected again today, which will bring dew points into the low 40s (for most) and high temperatures into the low-mid 80s. Vented moisture from Hurricane Isaias is being carried north along the 250mb flow. This will steadily bring scattered upper sky cover north over the region in the afternoon and evening.

=== Remnants of Hurricane Isaias: Rainfall and Gusty Winds ===

Hurricane Isaias is currently a Category 2 with max winds of 105mph. The system is expected to intensify to high-end Cat 2 or low-end Cat 3 prior to landfall. Given the fair amount of shear, there is currently a low chance of the system intensifying beyond a low-end Cat 3. This brings more confidence to the forecast over the lower Ohio Valley as the system continues north after making landfall near the western Florida panhandle tonight or very early Saturday morning.

Overcast skies will continue to work north over the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Gradient winds and precip chances will steadily increase Saturday mid-morning and into the early afternoon from south to north. Over the last 24 hours, the forecast has sped up by about 6-12 hours. Expecting to see max winds of 30-35mph over southern Kentucky, and wouldn't completely rule out up to 40mph in some more wind exposed areas. Northern Kentucky and southern Indiana will see up to 30mph winds. Given a stable layer at the surface and antecedent overcast skies, CAPE continues to be very minimal during this event. This decreases chances for tropical tornadoes. Though, if we see any breaks in the clouds in the afternoon on Saturday, we could see locally enhanced wind gusts and a small chance for a tropical tornado. These tornadoes are very weak and brief. Overall QPF continues to be between 0.75-1.5 inches. LPMMs show weak signals for localized areas of about 2.5 inches. Given very dry antecedent conditions, not expecting flooding issues, though some localized areas could see minor problems.

Winds will weaken and precip chances will decrease from west to east on Sunday as the remnants continue to weaken and get picked up by upper troughing.

=== Dry to Start Next Week ===

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will build into the region on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow for drier and warm conditions. Highs will remain above normal in the low-mid 80s.

Moving into the middle of next week, a shortwave moving along upper ridging will bring a cold front through the region. Then deeper troughing is expected to swing into the central Plains that has the potential to develop a strong low pressure system. This system would impact the Ohio Valley late next week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 612 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

High pressure is pushing off to the east and allowing very light winds to veer to the southeast this morning. By mid-morning, winds will pick up around 5-9kts through the day. As Hurricane Isaias moves north, high clouds will work north over the region. By late Saturday morning, rain chances will begin to increase from south to north.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.