textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Much cooler this evening in the wake of a cold front, with scattered rain showers lingering through the evening hours.

* Cool and dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday. Patchy frost will be possible both mornings, especially across portions of southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region.

* A warming trend begins Tuesday through the rest of the week. Despite a low end rain chance Wednesday (<20%), the next round of rain moves in Friday-Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Sfc cold front has pushed through our southern IN counties and currently extends through SDF and CKV. Scattered light rain showers continue well east of the front over the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions, while spotty light rain and drizzle is falling from low clouds immediately west of the cold front. Temperatures currently range from the upper 40s and lower 50s northwest of the cold front, to the mid/upper 60s just southeast of the front in a pocket of brief clearing.

Isolated to scattered light rain will continue into the evening hours as the front sweeps southeast through the rest of central KY. Gusty NW winds will increase as the front sweeps through, and we've seen 30-35+ mph right along the front. However, NW gusts will settle into the 20-25 mph range after the frontal passage. Winds will gradually diminish after sunset.

Temperatures will continue to steadily fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s this evening as much cooler air streams in from the northwest. An additional band of light rain will blossom over southern IN and north-central KY this evening as the mid-level trough axis and vort max rotate in from the west. Showers should clear the Louisville Metro by 10-11 PM, with rain ending in Lexington closer to 12-1 AM EDT. Showers continue to exit the region off to the east late tonight, and the early morning hours of Sunday look mainly dry and chilly.

Clouds are expected to clear out fairly quickly early Sunday morning, and light winds will allow temperatures to settle into the mid 30s to around 40. Patchy frost looks possible early Sunday morning, especially across southern IN and northern KY. The rest of Sunday looks quiet and cool with some SCT-BKN cumulus across the northern half of the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 60s.

A reinforcing cold front will drop in from the north Sunday night as strong high pressure builds southeast from the Upper Midwest. Expect a mainly dry, chilly night with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Some frost again looks possible early Monday, particularly across southern IN and the Bluegrass Region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

===== Monday - Wednesday =====

Surface to mid level high pressure lingers over the deep south and lower Ohio Valley Monday and through the next few days. Supported by the general troughing over the US west coast, this high pressure will influence our weather conditions for the next few days. Throughout the day on Monday, the CWA will be on the eastern side of the high with northerly flow dominating. Cooler air from the north will then keep our highs a little cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s. Slowly, high pressure shifts to our southeast, orienting low to mid level flow out of the SW overnight on Monday. With milder air filtering in again, lows will remain in the 40s and low 50s in SW areas.

By Tuesday afternoon, SW flow begins shoveling more warm air into the area with highs recovering into the mid to upper 70s. SW flow will continue to dominate throughout the week heading into Wednesday, temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly sunny skies. Albeit a low end chance, there may be a shortwave to move over the Great Lakes affecting our northeastern communities with spotty showers, though high end rainfall amounts are under 0.2" of inch (90% of this occurring). Additionally, with ridging in place, it will be difficult moving in rain showers as they will weaken over our CWA. Otherwise, this week remains dry through Wednesday.

===== Beyond Wednesday =====

With the general pattern supporting ridging in the Plains and Ohio Valley, weather conditions won't change much heading into Thursday and Friday morning. ESAT tables suggest higher than normal temperatures but low confidence in any temperatures getting close to extreme heat. With ridging in place, little rain or drought relief is expected at least until Friday - Saturday. A shortwave heading off of the Rockies to our north will create troughing over the Ohio Valley. How strong and how far south this trough becomes is still in question. In fact, the signal of this shortwave becomes very muddled by Saturday from statistical 500 mb height plots. For now, a change to the general ridging pattern is possible, with rain moving in on Friday heading into Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Cold front is east of the region early this morning. However, still seeing a band of showers in the post frontal airmass working across the region. Drier air is advecting in from the west and rain showers will diminish east of an SDF/BWG by 19/07Z and then clear KLEX by 19/08Z. Cigs are VFR and will continue to improve with clearing skies moving in from the west toward sunrise. VFR and SKC are expected during the daytime hours with west/west-northwest winds of 10-14kts and gusts to 20-22kts through the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.