textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Low stratus will continue to mix out overnight with mostly sunny skies expected through the daytime hours with highs in the mid- upper 70s.

* Tranquil weather will continue through the weekend. A brief warmup will be seen early next week before the next weather system arrives around mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Early morning satellite loops show low-level stratus continuing to mix out across the region. Main area of cloudiness was along the WK/BG Parkways from Leitchfield northeast through Bardstown. Temperatures were down into the lower 50s over the Bluegrass region with lower 60s in the I-65 corridor. For the remainder of the overnight hours, no significant weather is expected. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the mid-upper 50s in the I-65 corridor back toward the I-165 corridor. A few spots in the northeast Bluegrass could crack the upper 40s. Some patchy river valley fog may develop across the Bluegrass toward dawn.

For the daytime hours, some lingering stratus will be possible in the I-65 corridor early this morning. However, this cloud cover should continue to mix out and skies for the remainder of the day look to be mostly sunny. A cool northeast flow will continue and highs across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass will warm into the lower 70s. In the I-65 corridor and points west, highs of 72 to 77 are expected.

For tonight, dry conditions are expected, though model time-height cross sections show some mid-high level moisture overspreading the region. Thus, we'll probably see some high cloudiness drift over the central and western part of Kentucky. This looks to keep overnight lows in the lower 50s for much of the area. The exception will be over in the eastern Bluegrass where more clear skies are expected and lows look to drop into the lower-mid 40s.

Dry and tranquil weather is expected again on Saturday with highs topping out in the 72-77 degree range. Upper ridging may be a bit stronger across the region Saturday night resulting in mostly clear skies east of the US 27/127 corridor where temps will drop into the lower-mid 40s. In the I-65 corridor and points west, lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s are expected. Similar weather conditions are expected on Sunday with highs in the 72-77 degree range and overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Monday and Tuesday...

For the start of the week, continued ridging is expected from Texas northeast into the Great Lakes. Across the NE US, an upper level and associated surface low will continue to lift northeast into SE Canada. Out across the west, an strong shortwave trough axis in the southern stream will move thorugh the southwest US and continue to deepen. Locally, we'll continue to be under the effects of the ridging aloft. So a continued dry weather pattern is expected. With surface high pressure located to our east, we'll get into a return flow pattern with southerly winds bringing milder temperatures to the region. Highs on Monday will warm into the mid-upper 70s, though a few spots west of I-65 could top out around 80. Overnight lows Monday night will be around 50. Highs on Tuesday should moderate a little more with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

By mid-week, focus will turn to the southwest US where a closed upper level low in the southern stream will start to roll eastward. As this occurs, a northern stream shortwave trough will push out of the Rockies and into the central Plains. The flow is a bit faster in the northern stream and it appears that the northern stream wave will quickly work into the Great Lakes by Thursday. A slow moving cold frontal boundary will work eastward across the Plains but will remain west of the region through at least Wednesday. Current blended PoPs are likely too wet for Wednesday and I think we'll see those PoPs get scaled back in successive runs. It does appear that the cold front may get into region by Thursday...perhaps as late as Friday/Saturday and stall out across the region as the flow aloft become more zonal out ahead of the slow moving wave coming out of the Plains. For now, we'll continue to highlight chance PoPs in the Thursday period. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Southern Kentucky will likely see temps warm into the middle 80s. Similar readings are expected for Thursday, though expected clouds and possible precip, may impact temps here.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Moving into late next week, the slow moving upper level low looks to open up and eventually head eastward. Strong southwest flow may bring another round of warm air just ahead of the feature. Current ensemble guidance suggests that unsettled weather will likely be seen across the region next weekend. As that system heads east, a strong ridge is expected to develop across the western US with downstream troughing across the eastern US. Model solutions have been trending stronger with this wave and a blast of cold air may infiltrate the Ohio Valley on/after 10/6 or so and linger for several days. The pattern looks likely to relax a bit. However, we'll see a west Pacific typhoon (Surigae) recurve and merge into the Pacific Jet as we cross into October. This is likely to perturb the jet a bit and lead to a stronger west coast Ridge and deeper eastern US trough with another surge of cool air arriving around the middle of October. Longer range teleconnection patterns going into Mid-October feature a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern with the EPO flipping from positive to negative around mid-month. This would suggest that colder than normal conditions may develop/continue across the Ohio Valley from Mid-October onward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Night time fog/low cloud imagery shows clouds continuing to scour out across the region. We expect to see mostly clear skies toward sunrise as drier air continues to filter into the region. Winds overnight will be light out of the northeast and will remain out of the northeast during the daytime hours. May see a period of gusty winds over at LEX in the afternoon, with winds subsiding by evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.