textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Windy conditions are expected through Wednesday, with widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to 40 mph likely.

* A cold front will bring rain to the region tonight before a separate system bring light snow Thursday night into Friday morning.

* Cold temperatures are likely this weekend, but forecast temperatures have trended less cold.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today, the surface high now sits east of Kentucky with a surface low over the western Great Lakes, producing a tight pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will continue increasing winds through the morning before gusting to around 25-30 mph. Even with some high level cloud cover passing to the southeast overhead, high temperatures will quickly warm into the 40s.

Tonight, a shortwave within the upper trough, sitting over the eastern half of the country, will dive straight for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. On the eastern side of the shortwave a surface low will get pushed from the Midwest to the Indiana/Michigan border while dragging a cold front just ahead of the shortwave. The front is expected to arrive in the CWA late Wednesday morning, but rain ahead of the front is expected to make it's way into our southern Indiana counties shortly after midnight and continue southeast across the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to come to an end by the early afternoon, but some light precipitation on the back side of the system could linger into the Wednesday night.

With the low's position northeast of the area, the highest expected rainfall amounts will be over the northeastern part of the CWA where around 0.25" is expected. Amounts will taper off to the southwest, to around a trace near Bowling Green. By the time precipitation changes over to snow, only a few flurries are expected.

With WAA advection remaining strong ahead of the front's arrival Wednesday morning, Tuesday night's lows are expected to only fall into the mid to upper 30s, but strong southwest winds are expected to quickly lift Wednesday highs into the mid 40s to low 50s before the cold front arrives. The cold front will bring CAA and drop Wednesday night's lows into the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Model agreement is looking better for the rest of the week.

Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. There will likely be clouds overhead, but the day looks dry with winds slowly backing from the northwest to the southwest, ending CAA. Highs are expected to remain cool in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring its next slug of moisture to southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of a developing surface low. The current track has the main body of precipitation going through southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. With its current expected track a dusting to around 0.25" is expected northeast of a line from Lexington to Jeffersonville, Indiana, but a few isolated spots could see around a half of in inch. Being a couple days away, this could change, but with lows in the mid to upper 20s, snow is a safe bet.

This weekend is still shaping up to be fairly cool, but the last two days have showed warmer temperatures in the data than a few days ago. Still, CAA will drop high temperatures on Sunday into the low 20s to mid 30s with lows Saturday and Sunday night in the low teens to low 20s, but now there is good agreement (at least for today) in a system arriving Saturday night. This system like last weeks that brought our larger snow has two parts. Moisture and cool temperatures dropping in from the northwest and Gulf moisture flowing up the Mississippi Valley into our area. Lets see if the cool forecast holds or the warming trend continues as temperatures are going to matter to see what kind of precipitation we get.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

There is a finger or stratus cutting north across central Kentucky over SDF. This layer drops south and wraps around very close to RGA, and south of LEX. Currently, believe SDF is about to improve to clear skies before an approaching mid-layer deck arrives later tonight from the northwest. Southwest winds are going to increase during the period before gusts begin during the day. Tuesday night, might see gusts to around 30 knots.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.