textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Tonight, non-impactful scattered snow showers continue with lows dropping into the mid teens to lower 20s.

* Tuesday night into Wednesday, a clipper system drops into the region, bringing a chance of light snow showers and perhaps some minor grassy accumulations.

* Temperatures will moderate through the remainder of the week with readings warming back into the 70s/80s by the weekend. The next chance of rain looks to be Sunday/Monday with another front moving through the region.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Northwest flow continues across the forecast area this evening with area radars showing convective snow showers moving southeast across the region. The snow showers have not been all that impactful with the road surfaces, but they are reducing visibilities down to a mile or so for a short period of time while producing a dusting of accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Continued cold advection and steepening lapse rates are forecast to continue across the region this evening. However, we are starting to see some drier air from the west work in and snow showers have generally shown a downtrend in areas west of I-65 in the last hour.

For the evening hours, most enhanced snow showers will likely continue from Oldham/Shelby/Spencer counties eastward into the Bluegrass region including the Lexington metro area. Probably will see a continued orographic enhancement out to our east across eastern KY through the evening hours where minor accumulations will be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 356 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The axis of a deeply amplified upper trough sits near the west side of the CWA with the trough's closed low near the western Great Lakes. The system's surface low sits just east, over the eastern Great Lakes. Cyclonic flow around the low continues to funnel moisture around the low down into the Lower Ohio Valley, and with a saturated DGZ and a subfreezing column, widespread light snow showers continue to fall. For the rest of the evening, snow showers can be expected, but no impacts to roadways are expected.

Tonight, the upper trough begins to lift northeast through the CWA. This departing low pressure system begins to carry moisture away from southern Indiana and central Kentucky, causing show showers to become more scattered. Gusty northwest winds continue to cool temperatures, dropping lows tonight into the mid-teens to low 20s, and with winds around 10-15 mph with gusts near 20 mph, wind chills return to the single digits and low teens by Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday morning, any remaining snow showers come to an end as the system continues to lift away from the CWA. Northwest flow pushes a surface ridge east over the region, clearing skies throughout the day, but continued CAA limit highs to the 30s to 40.

Tuesday night, as the surface high passes east through the Tennessee Valley, winds begin to back towards the south, but being so close to the center of the high will keep winds light, nearly calm. Temperatures fall back below freezing into the 20s as a shortwave on northwest flow brings another chance of light snow showers to at least part of the CWA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 356 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Wednesday morning will feature a clipper system moving southeast through the region. A band of snow will move through the region and may bring some light accumulations to mainly grassy surfaces. Behind the the clipper, heights will rise fairly quickly and temps will warm into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the upper 30s to around 40.

For Thursday and into the weekend, Upper flow pattern will remain quite amplified with a large upper level ridge over near the 4 corners region with the Ohio Valley remain in a northwest flow aloft. A small perturbation may bring a small chance of showers and maybe a storm Friday afternoon. After that, heights will continue to rise into the weekend. However, ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to flatten out considerably, with a trough axis and frontal boundary sliding through the region late Sunday and into Monday bringing another round of precipitation to the region.

As for temperatures, we'll see moderating temperatures through the period with highs in the low-mid 60s in the north on Thursday with upper 60s/around 70 in the south. By Friday most locations will see afternoon highs in the 70-75 degree range. Saturday should edge warmer with highs warming to 75-80. It may be slightly cooler on Sunday with clouds moving into the region ahead of the next weather system. Highs of 72-77 look reasonable from the blend here. Behind the front Sunday night and into Monday, a cooler shot of air will work into the region with highs on Monday dropping back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.