textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Winter storm winding down across the area this morning. Watch for slick roads and allow extra time during the morning commute.

* Another quick-hitting clipper system is expected to bring an additional 1-3 inches of snow for areas north of I-64 during Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

* Very cold airmass will move into the region on Sunday through Monday, as lows will be in the single digits and highs on Sunday in the teens and low 20s. Minimum wind chills may bottom out in the 10 below to 10 above zero range.

* Temperatures will slowly moderate Monday afternoon through mid next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Radar returns across the northern half of the CWA are steadily diminishing at this hour, although a few W to E oriented bands of moderate snow do persist. The trend toward sunrise and then into mid morning will be continued diminished coverage and the last of the snow showers exiting to the east. As this progression occurs, we are losing deep saturation aloft, and we may lose the snow p-type for brief periods. Instead, may have a few pockets of very light freezing drizzle. Not expecting any impacts from this, but something to be mindful of. Will keep headlines going through the morning commute as a result.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Well advertised clipper event continues across the area this morning with widespread amounts already observed in the 1 to 4 inch range. Still got another 2 to 3 hours of light to moderate snow across the area before things let up pretty significantly after 6 or 7 am. From this point forward, expecting an additional dusting to 1 to 2 inches of snow which will likely push a few more counties up and over warning criteria. For the most part, have the most likely areas already included in the warning, and don't plan much in the way of additional changes at this point in the game. So far here at the office we measured just shy of 3" with an SLR of 16:1. However, from this point forward expect SLRs to be a bit lower around 12 to 13:1 to end the event. Near as we can tell mid event, northern and eastern parts of the Winter Storm Warning may struggle a bit, while southern and western parts may overachieve a bit. The Advisory had to be extended pretty far south given a colder overall environment and heavier snow band setting up thanks to good mid level frontogenesis.

Going forward, expecting a dry forecast by mid to late morning with cold temperatures struggling under cloud cover and a fresh snow pack. Went with more of a raw model blend which is notably lower than NBM to account. Still expect temps to try and climb above freezing this afternoon, and perhaps work on the snow pack just a bit. Will have to watch for some re-freezing and black ice tonight as any melting from today freezes with temps dropping back into the mid and upper 20s. Once all of this morning's headlines are gone, we may consider a Special Weather Statement to raise some awareness for that potential.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Saturday - Monday...

We start off Saturday morning dry, and this appears it will stay the case for much, if not all, of Kentucky through the day. However, we will have to watch upstream and continued model trends for the second in a series of clippers that will slide through southern Indiana late Saturday morning through Saturday evening. After a southward trend in the data for this system last night, it has settled back to the north, and looks to stay largely along and north of the I-64 corridor with light snow accumulations. Current forecast has 1 to 2 inches of snow across our northern CWA, which will likely warrant a Winter Weather Advisory at some point over the next couple/few forecasts. We'll let the "dust" settle from this event first before messaging this next event with a a headline, especially given some waffling in the track to this point.

We will see quite the gradient across our region on Saturday with highs in southern IN not making it to the freezing mark. Meanwhile southern KY will be enjoying highs in the low and mid 40s.

A cold, arctic airmass crashes in behind this second departing clipper to end the weekend, with lows dropping into the single digits across southern Indiana and north central KY, while southern KY holds onto the low teens. Along with these bitterly cold temperatures, NW surface winds around 10 mph will be enough to yield minimum wind chill values in the 10 below to 5 above range. These values will be cold enough for a Cold Weather Advisory at least for portions of our county warning area, with the coldest temperatures across southern IN and northern KY where a snow pack will likely be lingering.

After Sunday highs only in the teens to near 20 south, the surface high settles near or over our area by Monday morning. These good radiational cooling conditions combined with a likely lingering snow pack for some will yield the coldest lows of the season so far. Could see some negative single digits over south Indiana, with single digits above zero elsewhere across KY. These values don't really get all that close to record lows for those days, but will still be pretty cold regardless!

Monday Night - Thursday...

We continue to remain dry through Tuesday night as Arctic high pressure holds over the area and then retreats eastward. We'll see slowly moderating temperatures during this time with highs on Tuesday back above freezing in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most. The next chance for rain could arrive by the Wednesday/Thursday time frame as a potent shortwave and its associated surface low rotate through the Great Lakes region. The airmass tries to recover ahead of this, but don't think there would be enough return flow to get any real instability into the area. Therefore, expecting just cool and gusty showers for the mid week time frame. Much milder conditions do look to develop ahead of this system with highs back in the upper 40s and 50s for Wed/Thur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

The snow event is winding down across the region, however SDF/LEX/RGA will hold onto some light snow for another 1 to 3 hours. Could still drop down into the 1 to 2 sm range at times in the moderate snow bands, but overall visibilities should improve through the morning and ceilings should settle into the low MVFR range.

Surface low will pass to our south today, with light NE winds this morning going more N today, and then NW later this evening into tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ030>043-048-049. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ023>029-045>047-053>057-061>067-074- 076>078-081-082. IN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ076>079-084-090>092. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for INZ083-089.