textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon and into tonight. The highest threat of severe weather will be along and north of the Bluegrass/Western KY Parkways.

* Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Broken skies over the region has allowed for temperatures to increase over the region into the upper 60s and low 70s. Dew points are in the upper 50s and low 60s. Warmer dew points over western Kentucky will likely continue to push east through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms have developed along this dew point gradient and are moving ENE over the region. Over the next several hours, storms will intensify bringing a threat for wind, hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes may become strong. This threat will be mostly northern of the Bluegrass/Western KY PKWYs and more concentrated along and north of I-64.

Synoptic... A strong upper jet is moving into the lower Ohio Valley. This will place the northern half of the region in the left exit region of the jet, where we will see better synoptic lift. At the surface and low levels, we are in a WAA regime, which will keep warm, moist air over the region. A strong LLJ will begin to nose into the region from the west over the next few hours which will increase low level shear and tornado potential. The synoptic environment is conducive for scattered storms.

Mesoscale... ACARS sounds are showing CAPE around 700-1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear increasing. There is a slight warm layer aloft that is currently impeding the current full storm potential, but this will diminish over the next few hours as a LLJ enters from the west. Additionally, low level shear will increase as the LLJ enters from the west. Hodographs will continue to elongate as well. Initially, these storms will be a lightning, wind, and hail threat as storms rapidly develop, collapse, and some split. When we get the better deep-layer shear in a few hours, we will begin to see more of a tornado threat. Model soundings show peak 0-1km SRH around 150-200 m2/s2, good low level lapse rates, LCL around 900-1000m, and DCAPE around 500 J/kg.

These storms will move continue through the early evening, tapering off from west to east. The cold front of this system will move through this evening and tonight, bringing a broken line of showers and storms. A few storms may become strong, though instability will be quite limited. Greatest threat would be severe winds.

The cold front will exit the region by morning and clouds will quickly move out. CAA will bring cooler air into the region on Friday with highs in the 50s. Quiet and mild weather for the end of the work week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Friday Night - Sunday...

A few rain showers will be possible Friday night in the southern counties of the CWA along the Tennessee border as a weak shortwave passes eastward through the region. Saturday morning lows will be at or below freezing in the northern counties and in the upper 30s for the southern counties. Conditions will be calm during the day on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. An upper- level trough passes over the Ohio Valley Saturday night that may produce some scattered showers, though chances for rain are only up to 20% at the time being. Considerable CAA will fill in behind the trough, as well as clearing skies that will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s by Sunday morning. The cold air will not allow temperatures to climb much during the day even with clear skies, with most areas only getting into the mid 30s by the afternoon.

Monday - Thursday...

The period of dry weather will continue Monday through early Wednesday as a broad surface high moves across the country. Afternoon temperatures on Monday will be similar to that of Sunday, though morning lows will be down in the mid-to-low 20s across the area. As the main area of high pressure moves directly over the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning, clearing skies and calm winds will allow low temperatures to drop down into the upper teens. Afternoon highs will rebound into the mid 40s.

Our next chance for rain will come starting on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday as the front of a broad surface low over the Great Lakes extends southward into the Ohio Valley and passes over the region. Increasing southerly winds and modest WAA will allow afternoon highs both days to get up into the mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 707 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

The primary aviation impacts will likely be the imminent development of LLWS, followed by increasingly gusty sfc winds tomorrow morning. A 40 kt SW LLJ is overspreading the region, and with a stabilizing near-sfc layer and somewhat less gusty sfc winds, we'll start off with a period of LLWS late this evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Steepening lapse rates will yield stronger sfc winds and gusts after 10-12Z Friday, with gusts of 25-30+ kts then possible through early afternoon.

Mostly VFR conditions conditions are forecast through this TAF period. The only exception may be a brief ceiling/vis drop in a heavier shower or storm late this evening. SCT-BKN SHRA and TSRA will be possible between mainly 01-08Z tonight as the cold front sweeps west to east across the region.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.