textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning as temperatures drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. Freeze Warning for the entire area for Saturday morning. Frost/freeze may be needed for Sunday morning as well.

* Well-above normal temperatures and precipitation chances return early-to-mid next week, with waves of unsettled weather likely later next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

===Light Rain and Cooling Temperatures This Afternoon===

Very light scattered rain will continue for the next few hours. CAA continues to push into the region and bringing cooler temperatures and dew points with it. Temperatures will continue to fall this afternoon. The pressure gradient remains tight over the region and will keep breezy conditions through the evening.

===Freeze Warning Tonight===

Troughing will push east of the region tonight, allowing skies to clear out from NW to SE. High pressure is expected to move over the Ohio Valley, leading to weaker winds and cooler temperatures. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 26-32F range, with coldest temperatures over the northern and eastern portion of the region. Widespread frost is expected. A Freeze Warning will be in effect from 4-14Z Saturday morning.

Strong high pressure will remain over the region on Saturday, keeping temperatures cool. Looking to see high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s, clear skies, and light winds. Dry air mix down on Saturday will help to reduce dew points and RH over the region. Might see afternoon RH in the 20-25% range over most of the region.

===Possible Frost Sunday Morning, Then Warming Up===

On Sunday, high pressure will slip to the east of the region and southerly flow will return to the region. Light winds overnight will help to keep temperatures between 32-38F. Areas in the Bluegrass have a 60% chance of freezing to slightly less than freezing temperatures on Sunday morning. A freeze warning may be needed for Sunday morning as well. Frost will be possible, especially in wind protected areas. Southerly flow and increasing heights aloft will allow for temperatures to warm into the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

===Warmer and Mostly Dry through Tuesday===

Continued southerly flow into the region will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s on Monday. We will remain dry on Monday and most of Tuesday, as the upper pattern features ridging pushing east and over the region. Southerly flow and WAA will peak over the region on Tuesday, as a 45-50kt LLJ moves east into the Ohio Valley. Highs on Tuesday look to reach the low 80s. Also looking to see gusty conditions on Tuesday, with wind gusts from the SW up to 35mph.

===Active Pattern Sets Up Mid Week===

Upper flow turns more active on Tuesday night through the end of the week, as multiple systems move through. A low pressure system is expected to swing through the Great Lakes Tuesday night and will bring a cold front south into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This front will likely stall just north of the CWA, as another system ejects out of the SW CONUS. Chances for showers and storms will begin on Wednesday morning and remain through most of Thursday night. Overall severe storms threat looks low, but ensembles and AI guidance continue to show a weak signal. There is good agreement on plentiful moisture in the region with PWATs in the 1.5-1.7 inch range. With multiple rounds of showers and storms, will likely see a helpful rainfall this week. Looking to see a 70% chance of exceeding 1.5 inches of rainfall through Friday and a 25% chance of exceeding 2 inches.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Light showers continue to stream over the region and will steadily move south through the afternoon. Showers will dissipate in the evening. High-end IFR and low-end MVFR will continue for the next few hours and steadily lift and push SE into the evening. Overnight, winds will weaken and remain out of the north. Winds will begin to veer to the east by mid-morning Saturday. Skies will remain clear through Saturday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.