textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Patchy frost is possible in sheltered valleys again tonight, especially east of I-65. In addition, some patchy dense river valley fog is also possible.

* High confidence (near 100% chance) in dry weather all week. Ongoing drought conditions, most pronounced over southern Kentucky, will worsen in response.

* Mild, Fall-like weather will continue this week with warm afternoons (upper 60s to mid 70s) followed by crisp mornings (upper 30s to mid 40s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Only real issue in the near term is lower dew points this afternoon thanks to strong dry air mix down signal, and the potential for some patchy valley frost, and/or river valley fog in our eastern valleys tonight. Will issue an SPS to cover those two issues in coordination with ILN/JKL. Expecting some upper sky cover toward dawn across the western CWA, so a bit more confident in these threats east of I-65.

Otherwise, dry and pleasant weather looks to hold for the entire week as expansive surface high pressure controls much of the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong upper ridge axis will stretch from the Rio Grande up through the Great Lakes region. As we move into the weekend, dry and pleasant weather continues as the upper ridge takes on more of an Omega Block look.

Expecting plenty of sunshine through the week which will allow for temperatures to push up slightly above normal for this time of year. Highs should mostly be in the upper 60s and low 70s through the week, however with the stronger ridge by the weekend we could push more into the low and mid 70s. This is a little above the expected normals for this time of year in the mid and upper 60s. Overnight lows will mostly be in the low and mid 40s through the week, however with good radiational cooling some of the coolest/sheltered valleys may still find the upper 30s. Some patchy frost may be possible in our coolest eastern valleys.

The other changes made to the forecast involved lowering dew points each afternoon and early evening through the week. Deeper mixing will allow for some dry air mix down potential from the hydrolapse, so have mirrored dew points closer to the 19/12z Canadian model in coordination with surrounding offices.

===== Worsening Drought Conditions ====

While the beautiful fall weather will be nice to have, it does come with a catch. This prolonged dry period could worsen drought conditions for our area. Almost our entire forecast area is now experiencing at least abnormally dry (D0) conditions, with south- central KY even worse with moderate drought (D1). Since Sept 1, Louisville (SDF) and Lexington are both running more than 2.5" below normal rainfall for this time frame. Bowling Green is only behind 0.58" since Sept 1, but the bigger picture shows they are 5.25" below normal rainfall since the start of 2026. With no rainfall expected in the next seven days, these climatological departures from normal will only continue to spread.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the current forecast period. Crossover temperatures from this afternoon are generally in the mid- to-upper 30s, with expected lows in the low-to-mid 40s, so fog potential is low. Increasing sky cover before dawn Tuesday should also help reduce fog potential. Winds should be light and variable overnight, becoming northeasterly around 5-8 kt during the day on Tuesday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.