textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday.

* Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest. Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor).

The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50% chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30% contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little, if any, convection west of I-65, however.

The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT.

The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday. However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s.

The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a cold front through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90 on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cold front has pushed through the HNB/SDF/LEX TAF sites, and is poised to make it through RGA/BWG shortly. In addition, scattered thunderstorms have diminished with the loss of heating. So, the only notable weather left this evening will be the gusty NW winds that will hang on for another hour or two. Winds will then steadily drop off overnight, with perhaps some fog development toward dawn. Models continue to hint at some MVFR vis restrictions possible, however drier air will be filtering in so confidence is not high in that scenario. Stayed optimistic for now, and will continue to monitor. VFR prevails into Sunday with steady NW winds continuing.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.