textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy SW winds and mild temperatures expected on Friday ahead of a cold front. A low chance for showers and storms exists across the KY Bluegrass Friday night.

* Warm temperatures continue this weekend, with highs in the 70s and 80s expected. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday night, with a low, but increasing chance for strong storms.

* Cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 954 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A quiet night in store with light S to SSE winds, and steadily increasing upper sky cover. This will result in notably milder overnight lows than previous nights. Most locations expected to bottom out in the 45 to 50 degree range. The forecast is on track tonight, with no changes planned.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

This afternoon, mostly sunny skies are present across the region as temperatures have warmed into the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s across central KY and southern IN. Mild temperatures and dry weather is expected to continue into the overnight hours tonight, with lows only expected to fall into the mid-to-upper 40s and low 50s.

A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to transit across the Great Lakes within the broader NW flow pattern late tonight into Friday, with sfc low pressure developing in association with this system. While the sfc low will track across Ontario and into the northeast US on Friday, a sfc cold front extending back to the southwest will approach the Ohio Valley from the north. Initially, the main impact from this front will be increasing south and southwesterly winds during the day on Friday. Sustained winds should be on the order of 10-15 mph in most locations, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected during the late morning and early-to-mid afternoon hours. While there is not expected to be a whole lot of moisture return with this system, it should be sufficient for increased cloud cover tomorrow, especially east of I-65. Even with the greater cloud cover, temperatures will continue to warm ahead of the front, with highs expected to range from the low 70s along the I-75 corridor to the mid-to-upper 70s west of I-65.

Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, the cold front will sink into the region from the north, though it is expected to be weakening as the best upper-level support slides well to the east of the region. Low-level moisture will try to pool just ahead of the front, with sfc dewpoints expected to rise into the mid 50s. While model soundings do show a pool of instability above a fairly stable layer near the sfc, it is very uncertain whether forcing will be sufficient for any showers or storms to develop. SPC has placed portions of our KY Bluegrass counties into a Marginal Risk for the potential that a few cells will develop, but notes that this is a highly conditional threat. With the preponderance of hi-res guidance showing little to no convective development Friday evening, think that the overall severe threat is very low, but we'll continue to monitor trends in guidance tonight into tomorrow. If any strong storms develop, hail and gusty winds would be the main severe threat. Otherwise, temperatures will remain mild Friday night, with lows only falling into the upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The expansive upper ridge over the western US will flatten out this weekend as higher height anomalies spread to the east into the Ohio Valley. The weak sfc cold front which passes through the area tomorrow evening should dissipate on Saturday, with a fairly weak/stagnant flow regime overhead during the first part of the weekend. Clearing skies during the day on Saturday combined with increasing heights aloft should allow temperatures to warm into the 70s across the area Saturday afternoon, with highs around 80 degrees possible in southern KY.

For the second half of the weekend, broad sfc low pressure over the central Plains will begin to interact with a developing upper shortwave over the northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies. While this disturbance is expected to amplify Sunday into Sunday night, the main area of ascent and support for sfc cyclogenesis is expected to track to the northeast of the area, with the sfc low pressure remaining fairly steady-state while sinking into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. Ahead of this system, breezy SW winds should bring about another surge in temperatures on Sunday, with highs expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s Sunday afternoon. What would be of potentially greater impact would be how much near-sfc moisture can return ahead of the system, as a pool of instability will attempt to develop Sunday afternoon and evening over the area.

As the upper trough amplifies Sunday night, it should push a cold front through the area which will drop temperatures by Monday. This should be sufficient forcing to get a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Ohio Valley, especially the farther north and east you go. Machine learning severe convection algorithms do show a modest (but increasing) signal for strong to severe storms Sunday evening into Sunday night, though it is by no means a slam dunk. Several model soundings show a stout warm layer/capping inversion aloft until right before cold FROPA, especially for points to the south and west. Convective coverage may be somewhat limited as a result, and precipitation amounts should be limited overall. If any stronger convection is able to develop, some hints of an EML in sounding data would lead to increased potential for hail or gusty winds in storms, and while the tornado threat is very low, one can't be ruled out.

Early next week, there is fairly good agreement in a few days of cooler and drier conditions as high pressure sinks into the region from the north. By the middle of next week, NW flow should continue over the eastern US; however, there is a consistent signal in a few weak upper perturbations which could kick off a few transient systems. Timing in these systems next week varies between ensembles; however, in general, expect increasing chances for rain by next Wednesday. Temperatures will also be on an upward trend by the middle of next week as upper ridging over the western US again spreads to the east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with light S winds overnight and increasing upper sky cover. Stronger to occasionally gusty SW winds take hold tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches. Peak gusts should mostly be in the 20 to 25 mph range, with sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph. Few-sct lower level clouds may develop in the afternoon, but this may be somewhat mitigated by extensive upper sky cover.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.