textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Brief, isolated snow showers are possible this morning. Isolated to scattered snow showers or squalls are possible this evening. Any snow squalls can produce brief intense snow rates, reduced visibility, and hazardous driving conditions.

* Dry but cold weather is expected late weekend through early next week. Single digit temperatures are most likely Tuesday morning, with wind chills near or below zero for southern IN and north- central KY.

UPDATE

Issued at 455 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory early. Widespread wintry precip has diminished, and temperatures are still hovering just above the freezing mark in most places. Sfc cold front is now moving into the region, but based on recent radar trends, have cut back PoPs even further this morning. Brief light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out, but mainly dry conditions appear likely to linger into the afternoon hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 251 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A deep upper level trough is centered over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early this morning. A ribbon of mid-level vorticity wraps cyclonically from the Plains to the OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is on our doorstep this morning. Southerly winds are relatively light at the moment, with temperatures running in the low to mid 30s. However, sfc obs reveal W/NW winds and much colder temps upstream across MO/IL.

The widespread wintry mix of rain and snow we saw earlier is now winding down in our Bluegrass counties with the arrival of the mid- level dry slot. A light coating up to one inch was observed in many of the counties included in the Winter Weather Advisory. Multiple roads, especially rural or smaller neighborhood streets, may remain slick through Saturday morning.

Some model guidance continues to suggest snow showers will redevelop after 08-09Z this morning along the cold front. The majority consensus of the latest hi-res CAMs points to relatively drier conditions overall, which agrees with the latest upstream radar imagery. I do wonder if some of the more aggressive model guidance is simply too deep with the moisture. That said, we do have healthy mid-level DPVA with the sfc cold front itself sweeping through. A brief, isolated snow shower looks possible between 08-13Z this morning. Additional impacts seem unlikely due to limited coverage and still marginal sfc temps, but very localized slick roads could result from any additional snow showers. Will leave the Winter Weather Advisory in place for now.

Low-level CAA develops in earnest today in the wake of the cold front. Westerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with winds gusting up to 25-30 mph at times. Temps will struggle in the 30s for highs. Mainly dry conditions are expected from mid-morning through the afternoon hours. There will be one more opportunity for isolated to scattered snow shower activity this evening as another mid-level vort max rotates in from the west. Temperatures will be colder by this time with steep lapse rates and all the moisture concentrated in the DGZ. However, there will be some low-level dry air to overcome. Still, isolated snow showers/squalls do look possible, which could produce rapid visibility drops and gusty winds. Any short-fused winter hazards this evening will more likely be highlighted with Snow Squall SPS/Warning products if necessary.

Temperatures are forecast to continue dropping through the 20s this evening, increasing the risk for isolated slick roads with any snow shower activity. Conditions dry out Saturday night, but temperatures continue to fall into the teens by early Sunday. Wind chill values in the single digits to low teens are expected Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 251 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A deep upper low wobbles cyclonically over Canada Sunday into early next week, with multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances helping to reinforce broad upper level troughing over the eastern US. The modified arctic airmass will result in a stretch of cold weather. Brief SW flow WAA ahead of a weak clipper passing to our north will boost temperatures into the mid 20s to lower 30s Sunday afternoon. That's as warm as it'll get early in the week. Temperatures crash again on Monday with a brutal shot of cold air behind a dry cold front. Highs on Monday will be limited to the 20s.

With high pressure nosing in from the west by Monday night, temperatures are forecast to plummet to around 5-10 degrees early Tuesday morning. Wind chills ranging from -5 to 10 look possible during the Tuesday morning hours.

SW flow developing on the backside of the departing high will begin to advect warmer air aloft into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 20s (NE) to mid 30s (SW) Tuesday afternoon, with lows Tuesday night in the teens to low 20s.

A wave of low pressure tracking across the Midwest and Great Lakes will attempt to tap into more Gulf moisture before dragging a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday. A wintry mix of p-types looks possible, but confidence in the details is low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Steadier wintry mix is winding down now in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions with drier air moving in from the west. A lull in precip is likely to begin this TAF period, but there will be additional opportunities for at least brief, isolated snow showers later in the period. Lower ceilings (IFR and low-end MVFR) are forecast to linger through mid-morning Saturday over central and eastern KY, with conditions improving by the afternoon. A brief, isolated snow shower will again be possible 08-15Z this morning, and again 21-02Z this evening. Sudden vsby drops will be possible with any snow shower. Light SW winds to begin this TAF period will veer out of the W by mid-morning as a cold front marches across the OH Valley.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.