textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold temperatures and light winds tonight, leading to widespread frost development. Frost Advisory for early Monday morning.

* Dry conditions expected this week, with a trend to above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

It is a very pleasant Easter Sunday across the region, with temps slightly cooler than normal in the mid to upper 50s, and plenty of sunshine for the majority. Scattered cu remains across the Bluegrass area this afternoon, but these will diminish by the evening. Otherwise, the main impact today has been the breezy winds, which have been gusting 20-25 mph from the northwest. These winds will begin to relax by this evening as sfc high pressure becomes more established over the area.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skycover as sfc high extends into the area from the west. Winds will be light and variable, with temps dropping into the low to mid 30s for most, which will support widespread frost development early tomorrow morning. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been posted for tonight across the entire area. It is not a slam dunk frost forecast, as some areas in south-central KY may not be quite as cold to support widespread frost, but at least some patchy development seems likely.

For tomorrow, a very weak and moisture-starved cold front will sink southward through the area. Given how dry the column will be, there may be very little cloud cover associated with this boundary. However, it will be noticeable by the wind directions, which will swing from a light southwest flow in the morning to cool northwest flow by the afternoon. Temps are expected to be right on track with climo, ranging in the 60s.

For tomorrow night, we'll remain in cool northerly flow, with some clouds increasing from the west. Temperature profiles look cold enough for frost potential across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, but less certain for central and south-central KY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

===== Tuesday - Wednesday =====

An upper shortwave will pass over the northeastern US on Tuesday as strong Canadian sfc high builds across the Great Lakes. We'll continue with a dry forecast, though temps are expected to be below normal as the sfc high to our north promotes a CAA pattern with northeast sfc winds. This will also support a good day for dry air mixing, with sfc dewpoints forecast to drop down into the 20s for most, and upper teens across the Bluegrass. The 100-member Grand Ensemble indicates a 45-60% chance of sfc dewpoints below 20F Tuesday afternoon from roughly Madison, IN to Lexington to Richmond. With afternoon temps in the 50s, this would translate to RH values down to the low to mid 20s for a large portion of the forecast area.

Tuesday night features some potential for frost as temps drop down into the 30s overnight, though confidence remains somewhat low given some limiting factors that could be in play. We could see some clouds increasing across the northern half of the forecast area by Wednesday morning, along with sfc winds remaining elevated enough to inhibit widespread frost.

The upper flow briefly becomes more zonal over our region throughout Wednesday, with sfc high pressure pivoting toward New England. This will set up a warmer return flow for the area, and should see temps back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. To our north, an upper low will be tracking across the US/Canadian border, that will bring precip chances across the Upper Midwest.

===== Thursday into the Weekend =====

Dry weather continues for the end of the week, with a gradual warm up as a southeastern ridge builds. As that aforementioned upper low moves across southern Canada, a weak frontal boundary will sag into the northern Ohio Valley. Most precip chances are expected to remain across Illinois and Indiana during the end of the week, but could see some low chances sneak into our southern Indiana counties on Friday and Saturday. Dry weather is most likely to continue for areas south of the Ohio River through the end of next week. Temps as we get into the weekend are forecast to return to the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 713 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the current forecast period, with new forecast lines highlighting several changes in wind direction/speed. Tonight, NW winds will gradually become less gusty and back toward the W/SW, with wind speeds generally 5 kt or less after 06Z. Monday morning, a dry cold front will lead to another wind shift, as winds veer from SW to NW with FROPA. During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds are expected to become gusty, with wind gusts generally between 18-25 kt expected.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.