textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a clipper system drops into the region, bringing light snow showers before transitioning to rain.

* Thursday, northwest flow brings another shot of light showers for some.

* Temperatures warm everyday before reaching into the 70s and 80s by the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 431 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Currently, satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the southwestern part of the CWA while increasing clouds to the east and north. This corresponds with temperatures being warmer in the southwest and cooling towards the northeast, where temperatures remain below freezing. The axis of the strongly amplified upper trough in now east of Kentucky with northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley and surface high pressure moving east into southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

Tonight, the surface low pushes northeast through the Tennessee valley, backing winds towards the south, but the high will cause winds to ease near calm. The nearly stationary upper trough will carry a shortwave towards the CWA. This will bring another round of snow to the region.

Looking at model data, the system arrives with its own moisture with a dry layer remaining at the surface. The DGZ is expected to be higher than Tuesday morning's event, around 550-600 mb, in the deeply saturated column. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and cool sounding profiles, snow is expected to make its way into the CWA after midnight

Wednesday morning, with warm air advecting into the CWA, temperatures begin warming above freezing causing a rain snow mix to develop across southern Kentucky. This mix/changeover will continue northward over the CWA, into the late morning hours before sprinkles/rain exits our eastern counties during the afternoon. With the shortwave exiting, skies will begin clearing from the west. Highs return to the mid 40s to upper 50s with cooler temperatures to the northeast and warmer to the southwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 431 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Thursday, another quick moving wave flowing over the upper ridge will quickly slide into the CWA ahead of a surface low, bringing additional showers to at least some. Chances increase to around 30 percent to the northeast from Madison, Indiana through the Bluegrass. Total amounts are expected to be limited with a dry layer and no convective weather in the area. WAA under afternoon clearing skies will continue to lift highs into 60s, and by Friday, the mid 70s return across southern Kentucky with some mid to upper 60s remaining across the northern parts of the CWA.

Into the weekend, a west to east oriented cold front is expected to drop south through the Lower Ohio Valley. This could bring some additional chances for light precipitation, but model guidance remains varied on timing, ranging from Friday evening into Saturday morning. Currently, the bulk of the rainfall is expected to remain well east of the region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday before another cold front following the same path reaches the area Sunday night or Monday, dropping highs back into the mid 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

West-northwest winds are beginning to become less gusty, and by early tonight, winds will quickly back towards the south as they ease, becoming almost calm. Late tonight into tomorrow morning, northwest flow will bring a shortwave through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will bring scattered snow/rain showers to area TAF sites which could reduce visibilities. Ceilings are expected to remain in VFR levels.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.