textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mainly dry and very cold through Tuesday. Wind chills in the single digits and teens for multiple hours each day.

* Light rain and snow possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

* Active weather pattern with additional wintry precipitation possible next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 420 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

A mid-level trough axis is swinging over the Ohio Valley this morning, along with a pocket of cold air (-15 to -20 C) near 850 mb. A patch of mid-level clouds is crossing the region from west to east this morning. This shallow saturated layer, located within the DGZ, may produce brief light snow or flurries this morning. Webcams in Corydon show this light snow that is ongoing as of this writing within a very thin snow band. This snow is very localized, and impact to travel should be limited given the early morning timing on a Sunday.

The mid-level shortwave trough swings east of the area this morning, and additional shortwave disturbances will continue to rotate southeast over the Upper Midwest through tonight. A sfc wave is forecast to deepen as it moves east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, dragging a cold front southeast through the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Out ahead of this system, brief SW flow this afternoon and evening will produce weak warm advection. Even with quite a bit of sunshine, temperatures are only expected to top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most places this afternoon. Wind chills in the single digits and teens will be common this morning.

This evening, mid-level clouds thicken ahead of the approaching system to the northwest. The cold front will pass through largely dry early Monday morning due to a lack of moisture. A few flurries could reach as far south as southern Indiana, but much of the moisture will remain to our north.

Conditions look fairly breezy later tonight into Monday along and in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures will drop back into the teens and 20s tonight and Monday morning. With gusty winds from the west, wind chills will drop into the single digits Monday morning. Even during the middle of the afternoon, wind chills will remain in the single digits and teens with winds gusting to 15-25 mph. We'll maintain a fairly strong pressure gradient through the day due to strong high pressure dropping south over the central Plains.

That area of high pressure noses in from the west over KY/TN Monday night, helping winds to diminish. However, that will allow temperatures to plummet to around 5-10 degrees by early Tuesday morning. Wind chills between 0-10 look likely, and the wind chill could briefly dip below 0 in parts of southern IN and the Bluegrass Region. High pressure shifts off to the east on Tuesday, and we'll begin the gradual climb out of the deep freeze. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 420 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Tuesday Night - Thursday...

Through the middle of next week, upper level troughing remains in place over the central and eastern CONUS with ridging over the West Coast. Sfc high pressure shifts east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as weak low pressure lifts northeast out of the Plains. It appears we'll at least get a modest surge of moisture transport and WAA via SW flow ahead of another cold front. This could lift temperatures briefly into the 40s on Wednesday. A mix of rain and snow looks possible, but QPF appears to be relatively light (0.10" or less). Thursday is more likely to be chilly and dry in the wake of the cold front.

Thursday Night - Saturday...

Medium range guidance hints at the possibility for more significant wintry precipitation by next weekend. However, model spread is notably larger by Friday into next weekend. A deeper wave with a lot more moisture to work with could produce a swath of snow and ice somewhere over the Ohio Valley, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on precipitation types and amounts at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions likely through this TAF period. SCT MVFR clouds will continue to lift northeast out of the region at the start of the period. Today will feature mostly sunny skies and 5-10 kt WNW winds backing out of the SW this afternoon. SW winds will increase late this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Winds will veer westerly early Monday with fropa and become gusty. Mid-level ceilings will increase from the north this evening as well, but dry weather is likely.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.