textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain/drizzle continues early this morning with low stratus cloud lingering through the morning hours. Some partial clearing will be possible this afternoon.

* Short period of dry weather expected for later today and into the day on Tuesday. Tuesday will be warm and breezy.

* Fairly strong weather system will push through the region on Wednesday bringing gusty rain showers to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today through Tuesday...

Early morning observations reveal cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-mid 50s. Areas of drizzle and light rain continue across the region as a mid-level wave slowly works northeast across the region. Through sunrise, expect low clouds and drizzle/light rain continuing. Lows for the overnight period will likely be in the lower 50s.

For today, aforementioned mid-level wave will continue to move off to the northeast. Light rain and drizzle will likely linger into the mid-morning hours before diminishing around lunchtime. Cloud cover will limit temps north of the I-64 corridor with readings in the low-mid 60s. Some partial clearing will work into southern KY where temps along/south of the WK/BG Parkways will likely warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Dry conditions are expected overnight with lows around 50 in the I-75 corridor. Elsewhere, mid-upper 50s are expected.

Moving into Tuesday, dry weather is expected to continue across the region. Mid-level heights will build across the region in advance of a larger upper level trough that will approach the area from the west. A tightening surface pressure gradient will be noted and breezy southwest winds are expected to push temperatures into the mid-upper 70s. Given the strong warm advection scheme, it is possible that the models may underdo temps a bit, so a few spots could touch 80 and Lexington continues to have a chance to break a record high (77F). Winds may gust to 25-30 mph at times Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Sunday...

Heading into Tuesday night and Wednesday, a large upper level low and associated trough axis will roll eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Associated with this trough, a nearly north-south oriented surface cold front will plow eastward across Kentucky Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, a fairly strong low- level jet axis will strengthen to around 55-60kts and bring a fair amount of moisture into the region. Model soundings show PWATs greater than 1.75 inches which is well above climatological norms for early November. A band of moderate to heavy rain showers will accompany the front as it slides through the region. While ample shear will be in place across the region, the early arrival of the front in the daytime, combined with plentiful cloud cover will result in very limited instability. In terms of sensible weather, Wednesday will be a dreary, breezy, and rainy day with precipitation ending by Wednesday night. Highs on the day will be in the upper 60s to around 70. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible as this weather feature moves through. Cooler air will filter in Wednesday night with lows falling into the upper 40s west of I-65, and lower 50s elsewhere.

For Thursday, the upper low will move from the Midwest into the Great Lakes and much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley will be in the mid-level dry slot that should keep us precipitation free. Highs will be a little cooler with readings in the upper 60s and lows in the low-mid 40s. Another upper wave will pivot through the region on Friday, though moisture may be rather scant here and the wave may just bring more cloud cover than anything else. We'll be in between weather systems on Saturday with dry conditions and highs in the lower 60s. Another compact upper low will dive southeast out of the Midwest on Sunday and may bring some rain showers to the area toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the overnight period, light rain and drizzle will continue across much of the area. Cigs will be near the MVFR/VFR range over at KLEX, but IFR conditions are now expected at KSDF. KSDF should see cigs hold in the IFR range overnight and vsbys will be restricted to rain and drizzle. A few vsby drops down to 2-3SM can't be ruled out through 02/11Z. As upper level shortwave trough axis moves northeast of the region, conditions are expected to improve during the morning hours. Looks like we'll see some gustier winds in the afternoon with occasional gusts to 14-17kts down at BWG after 02/18Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.