textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread frost in southern Indiana (80-100% chance) becoming more patchy heading southeast towards Clinton County (40-60% chance) is possible tonight. A widespread freeze is expected tomorrow night.

* Skies become mostly clear with highs in the 50s tomorrow.

* A quiet weather pattern with highs in the 60s returns Monday- Wednesday and very low rain chances for Thursday-Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

===== Frosty Mornings, Cool Afternoons =====

Temperatures have already maxed out into the mid and upper 50s with ongoing cooling behind an advancing cold front. The front is currently over Lexington draped SW-NE. Besides some general sprinkles, drizzles, and mizzles, this evening will be calm with a light northerly flow reinforcing the cool air tonight. So much so, that there is an active Frost Advisory out, with an 80-100% of frost in our SW Indiana counties, lessening to 40-60% in our SE KY counties (and <20% in the Louisville metro). This advisory serves as a reminder for anyone to bring in any sensitive plants should there be any left outdoors this late in the season.

Skies will begin to clear from NW-SE this evening near 8 PM EST into the overnight across our southeastern communities. With that, temperatures will cool easily into the 30s by Saturday morning. Patchy fog may develop in some of the lowest lying areas in our west, though chances remain low near 20%. Morning frost will melt away in the mid morning hours with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 50s. Northwesterly flow aloft will ensure we stay cool tomorrow and with clear skies and light to calm winds, temperatures tumble into the upper 20s and low 30s tomorrow night. This widespread sub-freezing temperature signal means that there will likely be a freeze product issued for then. Patchy valley fog may form this night as well, although confidence remains very low in this. Regardless, it will be our first properly cold night of the season as highs recover Sunday afternoon near the low 60s as surface SW flow returns.

===== Mostly Quiet Week Ahead =====

Looking ahead towards next week, the reinforcing NW flow begins to weaken a bit, but also remain close enough overhead to give us a shot of some glancing rain chances later in the week. Temperatures moderate with surface ridging overhead, highs reaching the low to mid 60s on Monday. Long range trends are pointing towards persistent troughing and ridging to our east, allowing the general flow to become zonal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Without any meaningful pattern changes, our weather won't change much. We'll remain dry with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday-Friday rain chances begin to creep up some in relation to a weak signal of some shortwave disturbances riding down on the nearby troughing that will be centered over eastern Canada. Any shortwave might be bolstered with a jet streak over the central US. However, moisture will be lacking as most ensemble guidance keeps rain totals low. There's only a 10-20% of seeing more than 0.25" of rain across our CWA for Thursday-Friday. However, if a digging jet streak does occur, cooler air will be reinforced for later next week, keeping highs in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 651 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Borderline MVFR stratus is drifting southeast over south-central KY this evening, with a clearing line roughly along the Ohio River. Expect these lower clouds to clear from NW to SE in the first six hours of this TAF period. However, it appears the TAF sites will remain largely VFR. Cannot totally rule out a brief dip back to MVFR at BWG and RGA. NW winds at 5-10 kts will gradually diminish to 5 kts or less by 04Z Sat.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.