textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A cold front pushes through our area early this morning, and will bring breezy winds, falling temperatures, and scattered light rain showers as it passes.

* Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, with a chance for frost Sunday morning.

* After today's light rain, dry weather is expected over the weekend and next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

===== Cold Front Passage Today =====

An upper level trough is situated over the central US this morning, and will be the driving force for a sfc low over the Great Lakes to eventually bring a cold front through our area later this morning. Early on, cloud cover is on the increase ahead of this boundary, which is expected to bring low stratus over the area by sunrise and through the morning hours. Temps have been holding steady this morning so far, with readings hovering in the mid-70s since last evening. However, SPC mesoanalysis shows the sfc boundary has passed through the St. Louis area, with KBLV showing a nearly 20F temperature drop in just 3 hours, showcasing the strong CAA following just behind this front this morning.

Today will feature some interesting weather as the front passes through later on this morning. First, expect temps to drop throughout the day as CAA regime takes over with FROPA. Our highest temps of the day likely are occurring early this morning within the warmer pre- frontal airmass. Second, guidance supports this FROPA to feature an anafront, with the majority of precip occurring after the boundary pushes through. Mid-level vorticity max lags behind with the trough axis, displacing the better forcing aloft later this morning. Additionally, low level moisture will outrun the better forcing, leading to mainly light rain showers this morning, and lingering eats of I-65 this afternoon. Total QPF is expected to be less than 0.10" for most today. Our probabilistic precip forecast has a general 30% chance of exceeding 0.1" today, and less than a 15% of exceeding 0.25". Third, winds will become quite breezy today due to the compact sfc pressure gradient with the frontal passage. NW wind gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible, and will also boost the CAA infiltration.

===== Cooler Fall Air Finally Arrives This Weekend =====

With the help of the FROPA today, we'll finally break the hold that the above normal temperatures had on our region and start feeling some seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Upper ridging and a large dome of high pressure will expand across the central US, and with our cooler post-frontal airmass in place, much cooler temps are expected over the weekend and into next week. High pressure will keep us dry over the next several days as well.

Expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, though a touch warmer on Sunday with temps peaking into the 60s. The main feature to keep tabs on over the weekend will be the high potential for frost Sunday morning with morning lows forecast down into the 30s. No Frost Advisory yet with this forecast package, but confidence seems high enough that we'll eventually need one sometime before Saturday night.

Temperatures will gradually climb back into the low 70s by late next week. There are no precip chances through next week as sfc high pressure keeps a strong hold over a large portion of the country.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 633 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The cold front is currently passing through the area at the start of the TAF period, and now seeing impacts to terminals as cigs lower to MVFR. Scattered light rain will be possible behind the front today, but the bigger impact will be the gusty NW winds, with gusts up to 25kts possible today. We should see cigs gradually improve to VFR later this afternoon, but a second round of MVFR low stratus is forecast for tonight as well.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.