textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain spreads across the area this afternoon, but is expected to eventually switch over to snow showers and perhaps some snow squalls for tonight and into Saturday. Slightly higher accumulations are possible, especially east of I-65 where a coating to as much as 2" may occur. Winter Weather Advisory in effect for counties east of I-65.

* Additional snow showers or squalls are possible Saturday. Any snow squalls can produce brief intense snow rates, reduced visibility, and hazardous driving conditions.

* Drier but cold weather is expected late weekend through early next week. Single digit temperatures are most likely Tuesday morning, with wind chills near or below zero for southern IN and north- central KY.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 339 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Warm air advection regime has allowed temps to warm into the low 40s for areas north of the KY Pkwys, and up to 50 degrees across south- central KY. A broad upper trough is situated across the central US, with the Ohio Valley underneath the exit region of the upper jet streak. Regional radar mosaic shows a line of precip stretching from central Indiana to northeast Arkansas, which is located along or just ahead of an approaching cold front, and ahead of our next potent vort max swinging around the upper trough pattern.

With temps above freezing this afternoon, we'll see initial precip onset this afternoon as light rain. We already see some light radar returns spreading across southern IN, though dry air in the lowest 1 km will delay onset for some time. ACARs data out of SDF backs up the presence of this dry layer, as well as seeing sfc obs report dewpoint depressions around 20 degrees. Eventually we'll see our profiles saturate down to the low levels, first across our north, and a bit later to our south. After a short period of rain, p-types become quite messy this evening as we transition from rain to snow. Its possible that counties across south-central KY remain all rain or as a rain-snow mix as they remain slightly warmer.

Later tonight, p-types will mostly switch over to all snow as low level lapse rates steepen across southern IN and north-central KY. With deep saturation through the DGZ, and steepening lapse rates, some heavier snow rates are possible across the Bluegrass region tonight. The snow squall parameter generally agrees by highlighting areas east of I-65 for tonight and into tomorrow. Snow rations will start out quite low, around 9:1 due to the near freezing temps, but as we get colder through the night, those ratios will increase to around 15:1. Due to these factors, some heavier snow bands or squalls may be possible, and could produce brief but intense snow rates, reduced visibility, and some notable accumulations. Because of this, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for counties east of I-65 where these snow showers, accumulations of 1-2 inches, and some travel impacts are most likely. This headline runs until 12z Saturday morning.

The primary precip shield slides east of the region early Saturday morning, though we will not be completely done with snow chances just yet. The parade of vort maxes continue through Saturday, and will support some potential for snow squalls for Saturday morning. With very steep lapse rates, we could realize some low level instability, combined with saturation still extending up into the DGZ. Isolated to scattered snow showers and squalls will be possible across the forecast area through much of the morning. Given the potential intensity of some of these snow showers, do think another dusting to a half inch could add to totals. However, as with all snow squalls, the bigger concern would simply be the danger to driving conditions in any squall.

After perhaps a lull of activity through the afternoon, another round of snow showers and squalls may be possible for Saturday evening as well, just ahead of the final mid-level vort max pivoting across the region. Lapse rates continue to look steep, but a bit more dry air to work through in the model soundings. Rates could overcome this dry air since it does not appear to be much. There is some signal for snow squall parameter Saturday evening, with the RAP the most excited at this time. Both the NAM 3km and HRRR 18z suite show similar solutions, so confidence is slightly growing on additional snow potential for tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 339 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

By Sunday morning, dry but cold conditions will be in place and continue through the first half of next week. Synoptically, a deep closed low over north central Canada will slowly begin descending southward, resulting in longwave troughing over the eastern half of the contiguous US, while ridging remains in place of the western coastline. This pattern remains rather stagnant through Tuesday.

More on these cold temperatures...slightly modified cP airmass will have settled over the region with temperatures bottoming out in the teens across southern Indiana and central Kentucky for Sunday and Monday mornings, while afternoon highs limp into the mid to upper 20s with our southern Kentucky counties touching 30. A shortwave impulse will move through the longwave pattern Monday, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds with gusts in the 20- 25mph range, resulting in wind chills in the single digits across the region. This system will have very little moisture to work with, so not expecting any associated precipitation; however, expect another reinforcing shot of cold air behind this front, which will see temperatures crash into the single digits for many by Tuesday morning with wind chills close to zero degrees F.

By Wednesday, surface high pressure begins to exit east as winds become more southerly, producing WAA and providing a bit of relief from the bitter cold. Expect Wednesday morning lows in the upper teens to low 20s and afternoon highs in the 40s. Our next rain chances return Wednesday as well, as a low pressure system tracks over the Great Lakes. With warmer temperatures in place, most precipitation will remain liquid. Expect chances of rain through Thursday before high pressure returns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Terminals are VFR this afternoon, with a cold front and light precip shield approaching from the NW. We'll see vis drop to MVFR, the IFR for most by this evening as the front passes through. LEX and RGA have the best chance of having a short period of LIFR cigs tonight. Light rain will spread into the area throughout this afternoon, but will switch over the snow by this evening and continue into the overnight. Some reduced vis is possible with heavier snow bands. Precip will mostly clear by tomorrow, though some lingering isolated snow showers or squalls may be possible through the morning. Cigs will begin to slowly rise after the front sweeps through, leading to some terminals returning to VFR before the end of the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for KYZ033>043-045>049- 054>057-064>067-077-078. IN...None.