textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering flurries and cold conditions for tonight.

* Chances for light snow across SE Indiana and north central Kentucky Wednesday Night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Cold advection continues today with gusty W to WNW winds still mostly in the 20 to 30 mph range. These will continue to steadily slacken through the late afternoon and evening, but gusts probably won't totally let go until after Midnight thanks to steepened low level lapse rates. Also expect to see continued flurries lingering thanks to the persistent stratocu deck sitting in a -12 to -15C airmass. Extended these flurries deeper into the evening and overnight, which will persist toward dawn across the Bluegrass counties. Outside of that, not expecting any measurable pops with the cold really being the main story overnight. Given that winds will stay up and clouds will hang in for much of the night, temps won't completely tank. Still, looking for lows mostly in the 15 to 20 degree range. Tuesday morning wind chills will be in the upper single digits and low teens as a result, but overall winds will be much lighter by sunrise Tuesday (5 to 10 mph).

Dry conditions are expected Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures trying to recover to the low and mid 30s from their chilly start. A few gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range may be possible through the afternoon, but overall not nearly as windy as today.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Dry conditions will continue into mid week, although will note a weak clipper sliding through the NW flow aloft across the lower Great Lakes. The moisture associated with this system misses our NE CWA, but will monitor for any southward trends just in case. After lows in the mid and upper 20s on Tuesday night, highs on Wednesday recover to the upper 30s and mid 40s across the area.

New Year's Eve - New Year's Day...

A second clipper embedded in the NW flow aloft quickly scoots through New Year's Eve into New Year's morning. This feature will displaced a bit farther south, with the some of the better moisture skirting across our NE CWA. Forecast soundings show a thermal profile cold enough to support snow, so will keep some small chances for light snow in the forecast across our NE. May be tough to accumulate anything given the slightly milder temperatures on Wednesday ahead of this, still can't rule out a dusting on grassy or elevated surfaces at this point. New Year's Day highs will be similar to Wednesday's, and mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday Night - Friday...

Another brief dry stretch here through late week with upper flow flattening out and a southern stream system organizing upwind. Milder temps are expected by Friday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid and upper 40s for most, and into the low 50s across southern KY.

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

A southern stream system looks to move across the Gulf Coast states through Saturday, with the northern edge of the precipitation shield possibly affecting KY. Depending on where we see precipitation, we could flirt with a brief period of freezing rain across central or northern portions of our CWA. The good news is that this precipitation has shifted notably south with the 29/12z suite of models, which would only keeps some measurable pops across southern KY where temps are expected to support cold rain. Won't completely rule out a brief wintry mix Friday night, but right now the trend is positive for a mostly dry entry into the weekend.

Sunday - Monday...

Lower confidence in fine details for the late weekend/early week time frame, but overall consensus is for a mostly dry and milder trending stretch of weather. A couple of weak systems may pass through the progressive and quasi-zonal flow, but overall looks pretty uneventful for the moment.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 104 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Strong westerly winds continue behind a powerful cold front, and we'll keep W to NW wind in through this TAF cycle. Also seeing some lingering stratocumulus clouds through afternoon and evening. These clouds should mostly be in the VFR range, but some brief MVFR is possible, especially across the LEX/RGA sites. Gusts should mostly range between 25 to 35 mph this afternoon, and then should slacken to around 20 to 25 mph into the first part of the overnight. Should finally lose gusts in the pre-dawn hours with a light but still steady NW wind. Will also mention some lingering flurries at LEX/RGA as the cloud deck will be sitting in a cold enough layer to support some lingering light snow flurries. No impacts to vis expected.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.