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KEY MESSAGES

* Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until 9 AM EST Sunday across the Bluegrass.

* Clipper system tonight into Monday could bring some light snow or flurries with minor accumulation by Monday morning.

* A wintry mix of rain and snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential of an inch or two near the I-64 corridor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 428 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

As the large scale system associated with the closed low and deep trough along the east coast of the US and deep sfc low off the Carolina coast moves off to the east, sfc high pressure will build in over the region today while we remain under northwest flow aloft.

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery this morning continues to shown clearing taking place from central IN southward into into central KY. Where it has cleared, temperatures have fallen into the single digits and wind chills have been around 5 below in the Cold Weather Advisory. We will continue that until 9am EST. Light snow, mainly in the form of flurries have lingered along and west of I-65 but radar returns over the last several hours have shown this activity diminishing. Most of this activity was associated from a long fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan. As the surface high pressure works in over the area today, initially we will have mostly sunny skies but as the next clipper system approaches from the north and winds become more southerly, clouds will be on the increase from the west later in the day. Temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer as highs climb into the low/mid 20s later this afternoon.

The aforementioned clipper will pass to the north of the Great Lakes tonight with a weak boundary moving in from the west. Model soundings show good saturation through the DGZ as this system moves through. As we are still relatively cold and snowpack on the ground, we should see temperatures into the mid/upper teens. Given how forecasts have struggled with the light snow the last couple of days, decided to increase PoPs and even QPF for tonight with some minor accumulation expected with this system. Some places, especially across southern IN and along the I-64 corridor could pick up a quarter or a half inch of fluffy snow by Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 428 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The overall extended remains relatively unchanged and consistent to to previous updates. While we anticipate slightly warmer temperatures to start the week, we will remain below normal under northwest flow aloft with embedded disturbances bringing a couple of opportunities for precipitation and some light accumulating snowfall.

Clipper system will work off to the east during the day Monday, we could see some lingering clouds behind the system and possibly some light flurries in the morning. High pressure dropping in from southward out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest Monday night along with an approaching cold front will increase WAA into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures finally warm above freezing on Monday with highs in the upper 30s/near 40 south and mid 30s across southern IN/north central KY.

By Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough will work out of the central Plains as a weak sfc low develops over the TX Panhandle and southern OK. This will continue to draw warm, Gulf moisture northward lifting it isentropically over the Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. Precipitations will start to develop and move in from our west during the day on Tuesday. Given how weak this system looks like it will be, we are seeing less of a warm nose and with most of the precipitation arriving later in the day when temperatures will be above freezing, has removed the threat of sleet/freezing rain and making this mainly a rain or snow event. As models continue to trend this system further south, the current snow axis looks to be along and north of the I-64 corridor, with a rain/snow mix across central KY near the parkways with mostly all rain falling to the south. We will have to watch where a possible narrow band of snow may develop late Tuesday into Tuesday night, because this could produce an inch of two of snow and a headline may be needed.

Colder air will filter in for the middle of the week as high pressure builds in with temperatures once again near or below freezing for Wednesday and Thursday. Another Great Lakes clipper system is possible by Friday into Friday night with another chance of snow and rain before we get a reinforcing shot of colder air for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 649 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The flow of lake moisture off Lake Michigan continue to be a challenge especially for the BWG TAF. We have seen light snow and low CIG for some time with just brief improvement so far this morning. Per the stilt image, I think the MVFR CIG and potentially some light snow or flurries could move back in. Given how low the snow is falling it is very hard to be seen from area radars.

HNB managed to be the lone site to see the dense freezing fog this morning but so far it is just the only isolated location that has seen that. That could hold through the morning before mixing out to VFR. The rest of the TAF sites should remain VFR with generally light winds as high pressure builds in over the region today. Later this evening we will see winds become more southerly. A clipper system moving through the Great Lakes may give some TAF sites like HNB/SDF a chance for some light snow. Kept PoPs low but given how models have under played the snowfall the last couple of days, decided to bump up the snow chances with this system.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ031>037-039>043-047>049-056-057. IN...None.