textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A couple light showers are possible in southern Indiana this morning.

* Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s this weekend into the beginning of next week.

* Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms return. * Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 426 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Today, a relatively skinny decently amplified upper ridge is moving east over the CWA. On the western side of the ridge, where upper flow becomes more zonal, the ridge is dragging a shortwave through the Iowa/Missouri area. This feature is currently producing a line of thunderstorms that is expected to slide southeast towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but as it does this, it's expected to weaken, becoming just a fading area of showers. Any precipitation is also going to have to overcome low level dry air. This is expected to limit an rain amounts.

The surface high over the region is producing light to calm winds this morning, but after sunrise, winds will increase out of the south. WAA is expected to lift high temperatures into the low 70s to low 80s.

Tonight begins quiet, but with surface high pressure sitting over the Southeast, Gulf moisture funneling up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will meet with moisture pushing east on zonal flow. This meeting will take place over the Ozarks and into the Lower Ohio Valley. Precipitable water values will increase overnight before showers and thunderstorms become possible late tonight into Saturday morning. The best chance for a thunderstorm will be Saturday morning. At this time, PWATs are expected to range from near 1.25" in the Lake Cumberland area to 1.6" over southern Indiana ahead of the approaching shortwave/front. It's in these farther north areas where better rain and thunderstorm chances exist. Model soundings look to keep these storm elevated. This along with limited deep layer shear is expected to limit their strength, but some gusty winds will be possible with any of the convection.

Temperatures Friday night are expected to range from near the mid 50s to low 60s before warming to the upper 70s to upper 80s Saturday. With the shower activity across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, this is expected to have a limiting effect on warming in those areas.

Saturday night, as an upper trough begins to develop over the West and a ridge over the eastern CONUS, shower activity is expected to slide northward away from the CWA. This is expected to bring an end to the precipitation early in the night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 426 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday and Monday are expected to be nice, but warm days. Upper ridging and surface high pressure should keep skies mostly sunny which will help continued WAA pushing temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s.

Tuesday, rain chances begin increasing again. Continued southern surface flow will continue carrying moisture into the region ahead of an approaching cold front which is expected to arrive on Wednesday. Model agreement has greatly increased from yesterday. Deep layer shear continues to be limited, but with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s, enough instability is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms until the passage of the front on Wednesday.

The cold front will help to limit temperatures on Wednesday to the low to mid 80s, and behind the front on Thursday, highs are expected to "only" reach the mid 70s to low 80s which is around normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. A small shortwave is moving southeast towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This could bring a couple spits of rain later this morning to HNB and SDF, but with dry low levels, this threat is fairly limited. Near calm winds will increase out of the south.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.