textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A Flood Watch is in effect for repeating rounds of showers and storms through at least early afternoon.

* A few early morning showers and storms could become stronger with gusty winds and some marginally severe hail.

* A lull in precipitation is expected on Friday where temperatures will be well above normal and could break high temperatures records Friday afternoon. A frontal boundary will move through the region on Saturday bringing another round of showers/storms.

* Rainfall amounts through Saturday will average between 1.5-2.5 inches in southern Indiana with amounts dropping to between 0.5-1 inches over southern Kentucky. Some minor hydro issues may be seen through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Potent shortwave trough currently approaching the mid MS valley. This shortwave is pulling up a nice plume of Gulf moisture riding around the southeast U.S. ridge. 00Z ILX sounding...a little north of the main plume...came in with around an inch precipitable water, which still is above 90th percentile for early March. Peak values in that plume likely are in the 1.2-1.3" range. So, needless to say, the atmosphere is primed for some flood potential...which is odd to say given that the plume is right over areas that have been trending toward drought.

Satelite water vapor imagery as well as SPC mesoanalysis shows plenty of divergence aloft ahead of the shortwave, and we would expect within the moist plume to get additional showers and storms to form through the morning hours...with the best coverage north of a BWG to LEX line. The coverage may try and push farther into Kentucky later in the day...but the intensity should decrease in the wake of the departing shortwave.

The residual moist plume and any lingering outflow boundaries could trigger additional scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder overnight. Rainfall totals today and tonight should be around or a little over an inch across our southern Indiana counties with values dropping the farther south you get into Kentucky. Some higher amounts are possible, and thus feel good with where the current Flood Watch is placed.

Outside of the rain element, we could see a few gusts this morning as the low level jet ahead of this system crosses the region from west to east. Peak values should decline some this afternoon. Temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 115 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Southwest flow pattern continues here Friday, maintaining moisture across the area, though with less forcing aloft. Temperatures should approach record territory with some areas seeing 80s! A more organized trough looks to move out of the 4 corners region. A surface low will develop across the Central Plains ahead of this system. An attendant cold front looks to move into the mid MS valley Saturday, bringing showers and storms, potentially some strong to severe ones, with it. Deterministic model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the timing of this frontal passage here Saturday evening.

We should dry out some, as the boundary loiters just south of the region Sunday and Monday. Monday night it should lift back north again as we warm up and reload the southwesterly pattern aloft. Another front looks to approach midweek, though models do show more timing differences, as can expected with a Day 7 forecast. Having said that, a little surprised with categorical pops by NBM Wednesday. Would expect to see this trimmed back in the next few model runs.

Temperatures pretty much stay well above normal through the period. This forecast looks to have rainfall totals Friday through Wednesday generally in the 2-3 inch range...again something to help us reduce the drought over western KY and southern IN.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 128 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A low pressure system sits north of the region with fronts extending east and west. This is continuing to produce widespread showers south of the fronts through the Lower Ohio Valley, affecting all area TAF sites. The bulk of today's heaviest rain is expected to become more scattered at HNB and SDF while showers increase over the next few hours at LEX and RGA. BWG will continue to see scattered showers with most of the activity remaining north of the airfield. For much of the period, ceilings are expected to fall into IFR and MVFR levels over southern Indiana, including at HNB. SDF is currently expected to remain in VFR levels, but falling ceilings will be nearby.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for KYZ023-032. IN...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.