textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Frost/freeze may be needed for some Sunday morning.

* Well-above normal temperatures and precipitation chances return early-to-mid next week, with waves of unsettled weather likely later next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The Freeze warning has expired as temperatures have warmed across the area. Highs still on track today to reach into the 50s. With high pressure overhead and clear skies / light winds, another cold night is in store for the forecast area tonight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley sits under mildly amplified northwest flow with an upper trough pushing east over the East Coast. A following upper ridge is sliding towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky as it brings surface high pressure, currently centered in Iowa, with it. This is resulting in northerly winds that will veer towards the east as the center of the high passes through central Indiana this afternoon. Even with sunny skies, early cold air advection will help limit high temperatures to the 50s.

Tonight, with the surface high continuing to work east away from the CWA, winds continue veering towards the south, increasing warm air advection as some high level clouds begin pushing in from the northwest. This should help limit falling temperatures in most areas to above freezing, but some places could still see temperatures fall to or below freezing, best chances look to be across the Bluegrass.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Sunday, with mildly a amplified, almost zonal, upper ridge sitting over the CONUS, surface high pressure sits along the Virginia/North Carolina coast with low pressure centered over the Plains, keeping south to southwest winds blowing in the CWA. WAA lifts highs to the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday before the low 70s to near 80 on Monday.

Monday, with the surface high sitting over the Atlantic, anti- cyclonic flow continues to carry Gulf moisture up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, resulting in PWAT values increasing to just over an inch on Monday. With afternoon warming, an isolated shower or two could develop, but chances are only around 10 percent. This chance of an isolated shower continues again Tuesday afternoon during the mostly sunny day as temperatures return to the low to mid 80s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low quickly moving east through southern Quebec and drags a cold front through the CWA. With the continued funnel of moisture from the Gulf, PWATs increase slightly to 1.25-1.3" ahead of the front, and with the front becoming more west to east oriented over the Ohio Valley, it could keep showers and thunder in the area through Wednesday night. There continues to be little chance for anything severe, but widespread waves of showers are expected. The front will limit high temperatures to the low 60s over southern Indiana to the mid 70s near Clinton County on Wednesday.

Wednesday night, a shortwave moving along messy zonal flow is expected to develop a surface low near the Ozarks and quickly push it northeast through the Ohio Valley as PWATs increase to 1.5-1.6" or so, developing another surge of rain for Thursday through at least midday on Friday. Again the severe threat continues to look pretty low, but widespread showers are expected. Limited warming keeps highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Thursday before WAA brings a return to the 70s for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 756 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to last through the forecast period as high pressure continues to move into the region. Skies remain clear as winds slowly veer from the northeast to south through the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.