textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Tuesday through early Wednesday afternoon will be dry, with mild temperatures in the 60s/low 70s and chilly lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

* Rain and isolated storm chances return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves through the region, though it is not expected to be a big rain maker.

* Cold air filling in behind the low will result in a cooler stretch of weather from late this week through the upcoming weekend, with highs in the 40s/low 50s and below-freezing lows.

* There is an outside chance for our first snow flurries of the season if enough moisture sticks around the area late Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Now through Tuesday Night...

Surface high pressure and a quasi-zonal flow pattern with a northwesterly component at the upper levels presides over the region this morning. Clear skies and calm winds have again helped result in decent radiational cooling, with temperatures in the mid 30 to low 40s expected by daybreak. Dry and mild conditions are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. Weak shortwave energy over the Red River Valley will pass by just off to our south, but with limited moisture in place no precipitation is anticipated with this wave even if the track shifted north. For Tuesday night, expect mostly clear skies and cool conditions with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s.

Wednesday through Monday...

The upper-level pattern begins to shift rather drastically on Wednesday as phasing between the polar and subtropical jets begins to take place. In addition, a shortwave trough over the northern Plains moves southeastward towards the Ohio Valley. The combination of these factors, as well as remnant shortwave energy from the wave discussed from Tuesday will result in surface-based cyclogenesis that will produce a robust low pressure system. While ensemble members are in agreement on this taking shape, the main disagreements seen in LREF cluster analysis continues to be the progression, placement, and timing of these features phasing/developing with each other.

For early Wednesday, conditions will be mild and dry, with increasing cloud cover as the day progresses. Decent southwesterly flow ahead cold front will allow temperatures to be in the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon. In addition, the southerly flow will allow for some moisture return to occur, with a narrow swath of 0.7- 0.9" PW (80th percentile climatologically) ahead of the front. Te front will begin to swing through the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night, resulting in our next chance for precipitation. LREF guidance does show a narrow area of 200-300 J/kg of SBCAPE overlapping with the area of higher moisture, and with deep layer shear of 30-40 kt as well as supportive upper-level dynamics, a few thunderstorms could also develop as the front swings through. The SPS does place most of the CWA under a wind-driven marginal risk for severe weather, the combination of the timing (late afternoon/evening into the overnight) and weak lapse rates aloft will cause this to be a very low-end threat. Given the fast progression of the front, currently expected to depart to the east by Thursday morning, accumulation totals will be rather limited, with less than 0.25" of QPF currently forecast.

A rather cold air mass will fill in over the area behind the front, along with surface high pressure building in. The combination of cold air advection and a decent pressure gradient overhead will make for a rather blustery Thursday. The most recent LREF has 10-15 mph sustained winds, along with 25-30 mph wind gusts lasting through Thursday evening. Temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 40s to low 50s, but if enough cloud cover sticks around, many places could struggle to get above the 50 degree mark. The cold air mass will continue to be reinforced over the region through the start of the weekend thanks to multiple embedded shortwaves from an upper- level low over the eastern Great Lakes region and southern Ontario passes overhead. While most places will be dry Thursday morning onwards, if enough post-frontal moisture does stick around, temperatures will be cold enough late Thursday night into Friday morning to allow for a few snowflakes to occur, especially in the eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will struggle to get above 50 during the daytime, slightly warming on Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will get quite chilly, with below- freezing morning temperatures expected Friday through Monday. For the end of the forecast period on Monday, guidance has begun to pick up on a weaker shortwave passing through the region that could produce our next round of precipitation, but wide spread in the members keeps confidence low in any particular outcome at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There could be a brief period of patchy fog near HNB over the next couple hours, with a TEMPO group of 4SM BR through 14z. Winds will generally be out of the SW, peaking at 6-8 kt today before diminishing below 5 kt after sunset.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.