textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A chance for much needed rainfall will move into the region tonight and continue through the day on Sunday.

* Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of next week. Breezy conditions with widespread showers returning to the region mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently, satellite imagery and ground observations show a solid sheet of high clouds over all of Indiana and Kentucky with some mid- level clouds around 10k feet. At the surface, winds are fairly light and variable out of a general southeasterly direction. Most areas will see temperatures reach into the 70s. Some areas in southeastern Indiana and the eastern Bluegrass may only see the upper 60s.

Tonight, a shortwave riding along the axis of the upper trough will lift from near the Ozarks eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure, centered to our east, keeps a flow of moisture and southeasterly winds over the CWA. A weak low level jet will form just to our west and try to ease into central Kentucky and southern Indiana, but it's expected to remain fairly weak, around 20- 35 knots in pockets. This will begin to produce showers with chances increasing through the night. There is a decent amount of dry air under 700 mb that any rain will have to overcome before reaching the ground. This is expected to limit totals before rain ends Sunday night. The best chances for rain remain near Bowling Green and in areas farther to the southwest. The forecast currently has totals around 0.5" in that area tapering to the north and east to just a hundredth or two near Madison, Indiana and areas near Richmond, KY and east.

Behind the shortwave, the next system with a couple of embedded surface lows in a large upper trough will bring a north to south oriented cold front towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of the system, an increasing pressure gradient pushing on the outgoing surface high will result in southerly winds reaching 10-15 mph on Monday, but this will increase to 20-25 mph by Tuesday lifting highs into the mid to upper 70s across the CWA Tuesday afternoon before showers ahead of the front work east into the CWA Tuesday night. This will be our better chance for rain as widespread rain and showers are expected be east of the CWA Wednesday night. Another upper low/ showerwave could bring a quick moving shot of additional showers Thursday night into Friday morning. In total the area is looking to receive between 1.25 and 3.5 inches with the current forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

For the remainder of the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected. An area of light rain will move toward the region and arrive at the western terminals near sunrise. Rain showers will increase in coverage through the day, with light rain be most prevalent through the afternoon hours. Cigs will remain VFR but will slowly lower toward MVFR after 20Z at BWG. Winds will be light out of the SSE tonight and then increase to 5-8 knots during the daytime hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.