textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Another round of patchy dense fog is possible over southern Indiana and central Kentucky tonight.

* Warming temperatures are expected this week with near record highs possible on Thursday.

* Active weather pattern expected for mid-late week with showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong/severe storms are possible Thursday, but the threat remains conditional at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

After a morning of impressive fog, we're left with just a thin band of low stratus from roughly Bardstown up through New Castle. Where skies cleared out first, temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s with a few spots hitting 60. Under the remaining low stratus temperatures were still in the low-mid 40s. Expect the remaining stratus to mix out this afternoon, but where the clouds remain the longest, temperatures are probably going to struggle to get out of the 40s for highs. No significant weather is expected this afternoon or this evening.

For the evening and overnight, quiet weather is expected with temperatures falling back into the upper 40s. Overnight we'll see lows bottom out in the mid-upper 30s. The exception will be in areas that decouple and our traditional good radiational cooling spots that can drop into the lower 30s. Model simulations are suggestive more fog development overnight. The best chances of fog look to be across southern Indiana and into the northern half of Kentucky where fog could be locally dense once again. Across southern Kentucky, patchy fog looks to be likely, especially in the low-lying areas.

Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night as upper level ridging builds across the region. Highs on Tuesday look to top out in the lower 60s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Southern Kentucky should warm into the low-mid 60s. Overnight lows look to be milder for Tuesday night with lows in the low-mid 50s.

By Wednesday, a southwest flow will be in full swing across the region with temperatures warming into the mid-upper 60s in the east with upper 60s to around 70 in the I-65 corridor and points west. The day should also feature rather breezy conditions with afternoon wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Wednesday night should feature a continuation of the return flow pattern. Initially, soundings Wednesday night do not look all that impressive from a severe weather stand point. There is good deep layer shear in the hodographs across the region, but instability parameters are rather meager. It is possible that some weak elevated convection may develop from southern MO into northern TN and into southern/central KY overnight. For now, will continue to run some chance PoPs through here and continue to monitor trends over the next couple of days.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 313 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Thursday and Thursday Night...

For Thursday and Thursday night, medium range guidance suggests that we'll see a low pressure system across the central Plains Thursday morning work its way northeast into the western Great Lakes by early Friday. To the south of this system, the models continue to show a swath of moisture that will attempt to advect northeast into the lower-middle Ohio Valleys. A 500 mb jet core looks to extend from Arizona northeast into the western Ohio Valley placing our region in the left exit region of the jet axis. Surface dewpoints should be well into the 50s and a core of 60 degree dewpoints could make it into far SE MO/W KY by late afternoon. Model soundings show decent low-level lapse rates across the region with rather elongated hodographs. Instability here isn't all that great, but we may have 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with to get some convection going. Given the thermo/kinematic setup, multi-cellular to supercellular convection will be possible. Though, the highest threat of supercellular structures looks to be off to our west across SE MO/W KY. Upscale growth into some sort of organized convective cluster looks plausible here and SPC has us in a day 4 outlook which looks OK for the time being. Tornado threat looks to be again focused out to our west, but the upscale convective growth could produce a wind damage threat across our region.

Temperatures will be warm here with afternoon highs topping out in the 70-75 degree range which would be close to record highs for the date. Lows Thursday night will dip down into the lower 40s in the NW sections with upper 40s to around 50 for lows elsewhere.

Friday through Monday...

Surface low looks to move slowly through the Great Lakes on Friday. A cold frontal passage looks likely early Friday across our region with a dry punch pushing through the region on Friday. Highs should be some 15-20 degrees cooler here with highs in the low-mid 50s across southern IN and northern KY with lower 60s across southern KY. Lows Friday night should drop into the low-mid 30s.

Moving into the weekend, forecast confidence significantly drops as considerable spread develops within the model guidance envelope. The Euro and Canadian are more progressive with the upper level flow keeping things colder and more dry. Only the GFS has a secondary system coming through in the Sat/Sun time frame. The net blend here is for low PoPs through the period given the spread in solutions. Highs on Saturday look to be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs Sunday/Monday look colder with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 740 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Keeping an eye on fog tonight. Guidance remains mixed with additional high level clouds moving into the area from the northwest. This could help limit cooling, but with temperatures already falling, it won't take much to see saturation, resulting in fog. Backed off fog in the TAFs, but may need to amend in the coming hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.