textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with a gradual warming trend for the start of the week. Highs in the 40s today and into the 50s on Tuesday.

* Gusty winds of 30-35 mph possible during the day Tuesday.

* A system will move through Tuesday night through Thursday morning, bringing rain initially. Wednesday night, precip will transition to all snow. Could see 0.5-1 inch of snow over the region. Snow could become heavy at times.

* Another system looks to move through over the weekend, bringing another chance for accumulating snow and cold temperatures. These cold temperatures may stick around into the early part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

High pressure will slowly shift SE this morning, which will reinforce SW surface flow and WAA. Under mostly clear skies and WAA, we will see temperatures top out in the mid-to-upper 40s this afternoon. A weak LLJ will brush the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon, and coupled with good mixing, we will see wind gusts of 20-25mph this afternoon. Additionally, might be a setup for some mild dry air mix down, where we could see dew points dip into the teens this afternoon.

Tonight, a slowly tightening pressure gradient will keep light southwesterly winds overnight. Winds, coupled with continued WAA, will keep low temperatures on Tuesday morning in the low 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will swing into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, developing and strengthening a surface low pressure system. Pressure gradients will tighten on Tuesday and a 40-45kt LLJ will brush the lower Ohio Valley. With daytime mixing, momentum transfer will likely bring down gusty winds of 30-35mph. This is mainly a concern for the northern half of the region, as the LLJ will likely not extend south to southern Kentucky. An SPS for wind gusts may be needed for Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of this forecast with highs in the 50s.

Tuesday Night - Thursday...

The cold front of the low pressure system will approach the region on Tuesday night. Deep-layer moisture will increase over the region and scattered to numerous rain showers are expected to move in from the northwest. On Wednesday, mid-level troughing will likely bring a cut-off upper low through the Ohio Valley, which will bring much colder air with it. Cyclogenesis over the mid-Atlantic will allow for moisture to wrap around the system back into the Ohio Valley. This will bring a transition from rain to snow on Wednesday night. Given good NNW flow, we might even see a long fetch off of southern Lake Michigan for some slightly enhanced snow over the northern half of the region. Additionally, the mid-level trough axis swinging through on Wednesday night, accompanied by quickly falling temperatures, will bring plenty of moisture and steep lapse rates over the region. There is also an area of EPV noted, which increases the snow squall parameter to about 4-5. Therefore, snow showers could be heavy at times. Currently, snow totals for this system look to be around 0.5 inches for most of the region and around 1 inch over the Bluegrass and eastern areas.

Will have to continue to monitor this system, especially as deterministic and ensembles just now begin to converge.

Snow chances will steadily taper off Thursday afternoon as the mid- level trough swings out of the region.

Thursday Night - Friday...

Brief upper ridging and surface high pressure will move into the region Thursday night. This period will feature drier conditions and WAA.

Friday Night - The Weekend...

Another deep trough looks to swing through the Ohio Valley over the weekend. Currently, precip chances will increase Friday evening and last into Saturday night. Temperatures currently look marginal, so precip may begin as a mix of rain and snow. Then as the cold front pushes through precip will transition to all snow. Currently looking at light accumulations of snow, around or under an inch.

Amongst ensembles and cluster analysis, there is good agreement on this cold front being quite strong. We may see 850mb temps around - 18C on Sunday morning. This could bring Sunday morning lows around the upper single digits and low-to-mid teens. With steady winds that morning, this would bring wind chills down to around zero.

This cold might stick around through the early part of next week as another shortwave trough might bring a reinforcing shot of cold air. Low temperatures and wind chills may be similar to Sunday, so will have to watch this over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Lowering MVFR stratus will linger at LEX through about 8Z, as it continues to push off to the northeast. Light SW winds will remain through the overnight hours. SW winds will increase to near 10kts by late Monday morning, with gusts to 15-20 kts in the afternoon. Winds will relax as the sun sets in the evening. Skies will remain mostly clear through the TAF period, though some thin upper sky cover may stream overhead in the late afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.