textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push southeast through the region. Ahead of a cold front. Severe weather isn't expected.

* Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday night through Tuesday.

* Another low pressure system will bring a chance for strong storms, heavy rainfall, and gusty non-thunderstorm winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently, SPC Meso Analysis shows a stable layer with minimal instability. This will likely lead to a mostly dry morning. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly over northern and eastern Kentucky, but nothing is expected to be severe.

Around midday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest, the increased forcing is expected to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of a line of convection along the front. With the mid-levels remaining relatively warm and cloudy skies limiting surface warming, instability is expected to remain limited, reducing any severe threat. Southwest winds gusting to nearly 20 mph will veer towards the northwest behind the front. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 70s to low 80s.

This evening into tonight, skies will begin quickly clearing from the northwest behind the front. CAA will drop temperatures into the mid to upper 50s in most places. Some areas across southern Kentucky, including Bowling Green, may only drop to the low 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The long term period will begin with a large-scale trough centered across the Great Lakes region. This will lead to seasonably cool and dry condition Monday through Tuesday.

The pattern begins to change a bit by late Tuesday, and especially into Wednesday and Thursday which will be the main focus of the long term period. A seasonably strong jet streak and associated PV anomaly will move into the northern Plains. In response, a low pressure system will develop in the lee of the Rockies on Wednesday, quickly sliding into the Great Lakes vicinity by Thursday morning. Low-level mass response will bring some upper 60s/low 70s into the region ahead of the approaching system. The certainty with this system is it will bring impressively strong wind fields for this time of year, but questions remain on the timing of the associated cold front, and if multiple waves of storms will try to develop along/ahead the front. Surface warm sector winds will likely be quite veered, making shear profiles more unidirectional (although speed shear could be quite strong). More details will come on this, but confidence is growing in severe weather somewhere in/near the region Wednesday into Thursday, supported by continually increasing AI guidance over the past several cycles and an impressively deep low-pressure system (the ensemble mean is at the climatological max for lowest pressure) for mid-June.

The front will be slow to clear the region on Friday, so additional showers/storms are possible in south-central KY on Friday. But by Friday night into Saturday, surface ridging should briefly build in bringing a tranquil start to next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The next several hours look dry for area TAF sites. A near surface stable layer and limited instability will limit shower and thunderstorm development. An isolated shower or small thunderstorm remains possible, but not likely. Guidance is still pointing to MVFR ceilings developing near 12z across southern Indiana and working southeast into central Kentucky. This would affect HNB and SDF first before continuing towards LEX and RGA, but believe this could be pessimistic with future guidance showing higher ceilings. Around midday, shower and thunderstorms chances increase as a cold front works southeast through the region. This will shift southwest winds towards the northwest.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.