textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A reprieve from rainfall comes Friday and Saturday before the next round of widespread rain returns Sunday. A few strong storms are possible during this time.

* An somewhat unsettled pattern is expected through early to mid week with temperatures slightly below normal and off and on shower and storm chances possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 859 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and storms have pushed off to the southeast at this hour. The cold front is currently draped southeast of the Ohio River and will continue to work southeast this evening. The Flood Watch has been cancelled for the remainder of the night, given that precip has exited the region. Given the early departure of showers and the decreasing cloud coverage, there is a better chance at patchy fog tonight. Patchy fog has been added to the forecast. Otherwise, a much quieter night is in store.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across central and southern Kentucky this afternoon and will last through this evening. Some storms could be strong-to-severe, with damaging winds being the primary concern. In addition, the continual development of showers and storms over that part of the area will allow the threat for flash flooding to continue into the evening and early overnight hours.

The main feature over the area so far today has been a band of training showers and thunderstorms that has situated itself over central Kentucky. To its south, rich moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur has raised PWs to over 2" in southern Kentucky. With MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg in place, there has been more than enough instability and moisture for new showers and storms to develop to the south of the training band. 12z LPMM from HREF guidance has highlighted a few swaths of heavier rainfall amounts across central and southern Kentucky, so places that experience downpours and/or training showers and storms either from the new development or ongoing training band would have an increased threat for flash flooding. New rainfall totals of 1-2" are still possible this afternoon and evening, with localized amounts of 3"+ also possible.

A cold front extending from a surface low over the NE CONUS is beginning to slowly push southward across the CWA. The front will move through the area through tonight before exiting off to our south by tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front, ushering in a period of calm weather to end the workweek. Northerly flow will prevail on Friday, helping limit afternoon highs to the upper 70s/low 80s. Dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s will also make for rather comfortable outdoor conditions as we get to the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Friday Night - Saturday Night...

Mostly dry NW flow aloft combined with high pressure at the surface will keep us dry for Friday night into Saturday. Temps will be a bit below normal with upper 50s and low 60s on Friday Night. Saturday highs should recover to the low and mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Some light rain chances may develop across our NE CWA on Sunday night with some mid level frontogenesis. Most the area stays dry through Saturday night.

Sunday - Monday Night...

Sunday should start off dry with a brief shortwave ridge traversing the area in the zonal flow. Temps should warm to the mid 80s. As we move into Sunday afternoon through Sunday night models are in fairly good agreement with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the eastern Plains and into the Ohio River Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. The associated surface low should pass somewhere in the lower Great Lakes or Wabash River Valley region. It looks like some modest instability between 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE is expected to develop mainly along and west of I-65 through the afternoon and evening, before waning into the overnight. In addition, 0-6 km deep layer shear between 30-40 knots across the area would be enough to support a potentially organized severe threat with the strongest updrafts. The best overlap of deep layer shear instability would be in our NW CWA closer to the best forcing, and anywhere along and west of I-65 would have the best shot at severe. Could see an eventual need for a lower end threat from SPC Sunday afternoon into late Sunday evening should current data for that time period materialize.

As we move into Monday and Monday night the cold front trailing from the aforementioned surface low may stall out across our region, with individual shortwaves potentially ejecting through the zonal flow aloft. This could lead to rounds of showers and storms, and may have to watch for potential hydro concerns if we get repeated rounds of showers and storms.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence going into mid week across the area as baggy troughiness will likely be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Individual waves may traverse through this flow near or over our region, and could lead to additional shower and storm chances. Nothing to be too confident in for any specific time frame, but may have to end up carrying some shower and storm chances off and on through mid week. Temps are expected to run a bit below normal and mostly in the lower 80s across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 541 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and occasional thunderstorms over central and southern Kentucky will continue through this evening for BWG and RGA, with SDF and HNB remaining dry. Cigs should prevail at VFR levels, though brief periods of MVFR cigs could occur with heavier showers and thunderstorms. A cold front has begun to move through the area, with HNB currently on the north side of the front. As the front moves southward through the region, winds will shift from the south to the northwest. Once showers and storms end this evening, the rest of the TAF period will be calm with prevailing VFR conditions.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.