textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cool and dry today through Friday.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall over central and southern Kentucky. 0.5-1.25 inches of rain is expected during this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 351 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

The cold front has just exited the region to the southeast. Scattered light rain showers remain over the region and will steadily move southeast and dissipate as the cold front pushes away from the region and drier air builds in from the northwest. CAA will allow temperatures to fall near freezing over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky around sunrise. Given recent rainfall and efficient snow melt from yesterday, some black ice may be possible on roadways. An SPS has been issued through 13Z for this hazard.

High pressure will push into the region today, helping conditions to remain dry. Low stratus building south over Ohio will likely bring low stratus to the Bluegrass for a few hours in the morning, before pushing northeast. A 30-35kt LLJ will brush the region from the north and bring light-breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s for highs.

High pressure will continue to push into the lower Ohio Valley this evening, and winds will become calm to light. These conditions, along with clear skies, will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s on Thursday morning. Will have to watch for some refreezing on roadways after more snow melt today.

Quiet northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure will continue to bring mild and dry conditions for Thursday. Highs will be in the 40s, similar to today.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 351 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Surface high pressure and quiet northwesterly flow will continue through the end of the work week. This will keep dry and mild conditions over the region. Temperatures will be near normal during this time, with slightly warmer temperatures on Friday.

Saturday - Monday...

Deep troughing and a closed upper low will traverse the southern CONUS over the weekend, developing a surface low over the southern Tennessee Valley. Ahead of this system, ridging will increase temperatures over the region and WAA will lead to increased moisture. Isentropic ascent over a frontal boundary along the northern Gulf will provide support for moderate to heavy rainfall. Over the past few forecast runs, the overall trend has shifted south, which will bring the axis of highest QPF further south and out of the lower Ohio Valley. Current QPF forecast is 0.5-1.25 inches, with locally higher totals possible in southern Kentucky.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

High pressure and ridging will build into the region behind this system, which will bring dry and mild conditions. Temperatures look to warm to above normal through mid week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

The cold front is passing through southern Kentucky at this hour and will exit the region within the next hour. A thin line of showers is present along the front, bringing CIGs down to low-end MVFR and VIS down to about 2SM. Behind the front, light showers and patchy fog remain and will steadily dissipate as drier air builds into the region. Winds will remain steady out of the north through the morning, before backing to the NW. Low stratus is steadily building south over Ohio and will likely make it to the Bluegrass in the morning. A few hours of MVFR will be possible. The rest of the day will feature VFR conditions.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.