textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mostly dry for Saturday, with a small chance for sprinkles and/or flurries across southern IN and north-central KY. Better chances for light rain come on Sunday, with the chance for initial onset of precip being freezing rain early Sunday before switching over to rain.

* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s on and off each day as cold fronts move through.

* These fronts will also bring on and off chances for rain and wintry precip. Though overall snow totals and QPF looks quite light.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Across the area this evening, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals low stratus continuing to linger along and east of a Frankfort to Russellville line. So far this evening, the northern portions of the back edge of the stratus have made better eastward progress, and a significant proportion of hi-res guidance does show our northern Bluegrass counties clearing out over the next few hours. However, after the persistence of the stratus over the past several days, it's easy to be at least a bit skeptical of whether or not this will actually occur. South of the WK/BG Parkways, the stratus is actually beginning to pivot slightly back to the north, making it less likely that areas from Bowling Green to Campbellsville to Richmond and points south and east will clear out tonight.

A sfc low pressure system to the northwest of the region is beginning to strengthen the pressure gradient across the area, so we should keep a light southerly breeze during the overnight hours. Areas which clear out will have an easier time falling into the mid 20s, with areas under thick low stratus likely remaining closer to 30 degrees. While patchy fog is possible across the area, think there should be enough wind overnight to avoid much in the way of dense fog.

Minor tweaks were made to overnight temperature and wind trends, with no significant weather expected aside from fog overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

About half the region has seen clouds break up and sunshine peaking through. We will see a bit more clearing over the eastern areas, but these areas will still see broken skies and not complete clearing.

Tonight, surface high pressure to the south will push east, keeping surface winds light out of the SSW. Slight WAA will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the previous night. Aloft, troughing will move through the northern Great Lakes, sending a stalling cold front into the Ohio Valley. This cold front will likely stall over central Indiana and Illinois on Saturday. Another shortwave riding along the broader troughing will swing through the lower Ohio Valley in the late morning and early afternoon. Low stratus will return to the region. Very limited moisture in the low levels and troughing providing lift, may allow for some very light snow flurries (far north CWA) or sprinkles for a short time in the afternoon. We will see warmer temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

===== Sunday - Monday Morning =====

Another shortwave will swing through the region on Sunday, forcing the stalled front to propagate southeast into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, WAA will increase 850mb temperatures, keeping temperatures just above freezing in the low-levels (warm nose) and just at or below freezing at the surface. Precip will increase from west to east in the early morning on Sunday, which will bring a chance for freezing rain for a few hours over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Not expecting much accumulation, but a glaze will be possible. Shortly after sunrise, temps will begin to warm and precip will transition to mostly rain.

The cold front is forecasted to push through the region Sunday night. Due to cooling temperatures and weak CAA, rain will likely transition to snow. Precip chances will taper off from NW to SE as the front exits the region Monday morning. Low temperatures on Monday will be in the 20s, with wind chills in the teens.

Overall, not expecting much in the way of QPF or accumulation with this system. Looking to see very little to a light glaze of ice (mostly over the northern portion of the region), a Trace to a few tenths of an inch of snowfall, and up to 0.1 inches of rainfall.

===== Next Week =====

High pressure will build in behind the cold front on Monday. This will keep temperatures in the 30s for highs, despite clearing skies. On Tuesday, a quickly developing low pressure system over southern Canada will sweep the northern US border, bringing a WAA pattern to the Ohio Valley. We will remain dry on Tuesday with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures in the 40s.

Shortwave troughing will sweep the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, bringing the cold front of the aforementioned low pressure system though. This will increase rain chances for Wednesday. Due to a strong LLJ and increased pressure gradient, we will also see breezy to windy conditions on Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 30mph will be possible. The parent low pressure will begin to occlude late Wednesday, which will allow for wrapped moisture to lead to lingering precip chances behind the cold front. A cold air chasing moisture scenario may set up for Wednesday night into Thursday, which may bring some snow or wintry mix.

Yet another system looks to develop late next week and swing through the Ohio Valley, bring another chance for rain and wintry precip.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

After a gradual scattering of the stratus deck earlier this afternoon, the back edge of the MVFR ceilings has slowed roughly along an SDF-BWG line. There is fairly high confidence in the near term that sites which are currently VFR will remain so, and sites which are under the MVFR stratus should also remain so. During the overnight, there is some suggestion in model guidance that the stratus will try to clear over LEX and RGA; however, given recent poor performance, will stick with a persistence forecast until that trend begins to be observed. A front approaching from the north late tonight should cause winds to stay up between 4-8 kt out of the south and S-SW.

Ahead of the front early Saturday, there is expected to be a renewed surge of MVFR stratus toward SDF and HNB. While this may be overdone, there is at least enough confidence to carry MVFR CIGs at all sites for most of the day on Saturday. Winds should gradually veer from S/SW to W/SW during the day.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.