textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer with scattered storm chances returning Saturday.

* Much warmer weather arrives this weekend, with near record highs possible into next week.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms appear likely next Tuesday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 351 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Ahead of an amplified upper ridge easing into the Midwest from the Plains, an upper trough axis sits along New England and down the Atlantic Coast. This will push a surface high from the Midwest southeast towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Early northerly winds under clear skies will limit high temperatures to the mid 60s to low 70s across the CWA.

Tonight, as the surface low moves directly over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, light to calm winds will become somewhat variable as they veer towards the south. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 351 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Friday, as the aforementioned upper ridge advances towards the CWA, an embedded shortwave feature is expected to bring a chance for a light shower to areas along and north of Interstate 64. Model soundings show a fairly large dry layer under the moisture, so this will help limit precipitation amounts as the system fades as it moves to the southeast over the CWA. Behind the upper ridge, a more zonal pattern develops over most of the CONUS. Continued WAA is expected to lift highs into the low 70s to low 80s.

Saturday, continued southern winds will bring warmer temperatures and moisture into the region. Precipitable water values are expected to climb to around 1.25 to 1.6" with the highest amounts remaining over southern Indiana. With marginal deep layer shear and instability, multiple waves of scattered thunderstorms look possible during most of the day. Temperatures continue to climb into the low 80s to upper 80s.

Sunday appears to be more dry and sunnier, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 80s or even low 90s for some, but as we head into next week, rain chances will begin increasing again. There remains some uncertainty with timing and location, but by the late weekend into early next week, an upper trough is expected to begin digging south over the West. This is expected to eject a surface low towards the Great Lakes. Ahead of the system's trailing cold front, continued WAA will keep highs well above normal in the mid 80s to low 90s. With the added advected moisture ahead of the front, increased rainfall chances are expected by Monday night and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Today, north winds gust to 15-20 knots before high pressure gets pushed southeast into the Lower Ohio Valley. Tonight, this will help ease and calm winds as they veer towards the south.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.