textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold Weather Advisory for majority of the region today as a very cold airmass is moving into the region. Forecast lows will mostly be in the single digits, and highs in the teens and low 20s. Minimum wind chills expected to bottom out in the 10 below to 5 above zero range.

* The Cold Weather Advisory continues into Monday thanks to another morning with temperatures in the single digits, and maybe a few spots in the negatives. However, winds will be lighter, so wind chills will not be quite as cold as Sunday morning.

* Temperatures will slowly moderate Monday afternoon through mid next week, with above normal temperatures expected by Thursday.

* A cold front Thursday will bring widespread showers, and possibly a few storms, along with breezy southwest winds. Very brief cool down Friday, before temps trend milder again for Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at the top of the hour. The sun will be coming up which should make driving conditions easier to manage. Cold Weather Advisory will remain in effect through Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Things have quieted down early this morning as most of the snowfall has diminished outside of some lingering flurries. These will also die off into the pre-dawn hours, with only the cold to focus on this morning. The Arctic cold front is exiting our SE CWA at this time with temperatures now down to the single digits and teens across much of the area. Steady NW winds are noted with occasional gusts up around 20 mph also occurring. These gusts will gradually slacken, but already seeing negative wind chills to go along with plummeting temps. Wind Chill Advisory looks good through today with no changes planned. No changes planned for later tonight into Monday either.

After lows mostly in the 5 to 15 above range, temps will only struggle to the 15 to 20 degree range for highs. Despite mostly sunny skies, the bitter cold airmass wins today. Low level lapse rates steepen as we get into midday and the afternoon, and as this occurs may get a scattered cumulus cloud layer around 2 K feet across our N and NE CWA. Problem is that this cloud layer will be sitting at around -15 to -18C which happens to be in the DGZ. Seen this scenario before where you get some fluffy dendrites falling out cumulus clouds in an arctic airmass. Included flurry mention, along with a tenth of an inch of snow accum in the Bluegrass counties to account for this.

The center of the surface high settles over or very near our area later tonight, with winds calming and clear skies. Excellent radiational cooling conditions combined with a recent snow can allow for some pretty cold temps. In fact, lows might be a bit colder than this morning, however winds won't be as strong. Overall wind chills won't be quite as bad as this morning, but will likely still bottom out in the 5 below to 5 above range. Close enough to keep the Cold Weather Advisory going through Monday AM, especially folks out and about to start the new work week.

Climate Note: The forecast high temps for today will be very close to the cold max records (see below for specific details on those records).

SDF: 15F, 1914; LEX: 12F, 1917; BWG: 21F, 1985

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Monday - Wednesday Night...

The center of Arctic high pressure will be centered over or very near our area around sunrise Monday morning. Excellent radiational cooling and perhaps some help from the recent light snow leading up to that will allow temps to be in the single digits across much of the area (maybe around 10 above along the KY/TN border). Temperatures may end up being lower than Sunday morning, but the good news is that winds will be light and variable or calm. Still, a pretty cold morning with folks out and about so will keep the Cold Weather Advisory going through mid morning Monday with no changes planned.

Otherwise, look for a mostly sunny start to the week with a larger diurnal trend as temps rise into the low and mid 30s across KY, and into the upper 20s across southern IN. Dry conditions continue at least through Tuesday night as high pressure steadily shifts off to the mid Atlantic Coast beneath unremarkable zonal flow aloft. Perhaps a little light rainfall slides across southern KY Wednesday with a subtle embedded shortwave passing through the flow, but will continue to keep chances low for that area. Rest of the CWA should remain dry with moderating temperatures through mid week.

For example, Tuesday highs mostly in the low and mid 40s will give way to Wednesday highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Overnight lows trend milder during this time as well.

Thursday - Thursday Night...

Model data continues to generally agree on a stronger shortwave trough ejecting out across the central CONUS, with its associated surface low tracking across the northern Plains through the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Ahead of these features, the pressure gradient will tighten significantly between the retreated arctic high, and the aforementioned surface low (could be fairly strong). The result will be a much milder and moistening airmass working into our area ahead of the trough axis and approaching cold front. Good thing we will be recovering from the bitter cold and dry airmass from early week as dew points try to climb into the low and mid 50s, with surface temps likely peaking in the 55 to 60 degree range. These values are starting to get in the range that could flirt with more marginal thermodynamic profiles, or in other words, a less stable airmass. Too early to get too detailed, but will have to watch these trends as plenty of deep layer shear will accompany this system. For now, think the much more likely scenario is just gusty showers with widespread rainfall ranging between .5" and 1". We'll enjoy the mild weather, although it will be brief as the cold front passes Thursday evening/night, shutting off rainfall from W to E. Cold air tries to catch up to the diminishing low level moisture late Thursday night, but this usually doesn't end up panning out, or ends up being non-impactful given the warm/wet antecedent conditions ahead of any brief change over.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions take back hold as we head into the weekend with high pressure building back into our area behind the front. We'll see a brief cool shot on Friday, before temps quickly trend milder again by Saturday. Highs Friday are only in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but Saturday brings mid to upper 50s again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

The TAF sites have returned to VFR at this hour, with the exception of RGA still hanging onto MVFR ceilings. VFR mostly prevails from this point forward, but do expect LEX/RGA could see some brief bkn ceilings around 2 k feet this afternoon, along with a few flurries. Otherwise, look for a steady to occasionally gusty NW wind through the morning. Gusts should subside through the afternoon, however NW winds remain steady until the evening. Then, winds go light and variable or calm under VFR skies.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ030>037-041>043-049. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ076>079-091-092. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.