textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated the scattered pop up showers and storms continue this afternoon. A few storms could be strong and produce gusty winds.

* A cold front will bring a line of showers and storms through the area tomorrow afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.5-1.0" expected.

* Chilly Easter morning and cool high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s on Sunday with cold nights ahead through Tuesday next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are popping up across the area this afternoon, primarily driven by 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. We've been able to realize moderate instability this afternoon as temps climb into the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 60s. A lack of shear and meager lapse rates will prevent convection from being organized, though relatively high PWATs around 1.2-1.3" will support some brief heavy downpours.

As we stabilize tonight, any pop up precip will dissipate, leading to a mostly dry night. We remain quite mild though as we remain in a WAA pre-frontal airmass, so temps are only expected to drop down into the mid-60s overnight. Off to our northwest, a deepening sfc low will be tracking toward the Great Lakes, trailing a cold front through the Midwest.

Our area will be situated between the upper trough over the Central Plains and the upper ridge over the southeastern US. We'll start Saturday off with mostly sunny, dry and very mild conditions as we will be within the warm sector of the aforementioned cold front. We'll see the associated line of showers and storms upstream throughout the morning as they push east with the front, and expect to see widespread showers and storms move across central KY and southern IN by Saturday afternoon and evening. We'll have plenty of forcing and strong moisture transport to support widespread precip chances, though overall severe risk is somewhat conditional.

We'll be located underneath the right entrance region of the upper jet, with a low level jet core ahead of the front bringing in ample moisture advection and increasing our shear parameters. PWATs are expected to surge to around 1.4", which will be among the max for daily sounding climatology. Additionally, deep layer shear values between 30-40 kts will support organized convection within the line as it pushes through the region. However, the better LLJ and upper jet forcing, along with steeper low level lapse rates, will likely occur to our northeast, which is where SPC has highlighted with a Slight Risk in the D2 Outlook. Cloud cover will be increasing through the morning, and is expected to limit overall instability for our area by the afternoon. Additionally, model soundings suggest convection will be rather shallow, limiting the hail risk. Shear profiles show predominately unidirectional flow, so damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with any bowing segments or surges in the convective line. SPC both trimmed the Marginal and expanded the Slight in our area with the D2 update. Certainly expect to see some stronger storms within the line tomorrow afternoon, but there is lower overall confidence on how many severe storms we may end up seeing.

WPC also highlights a broad Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Despite the high PWATs capable of producing heavy downpours, the convective line should be progressive enough to limit flooding concerns. As a result, expect to see a widespread 0.5-1.0" of rain throughout Saturday. Given the convective nature, some swaths of 1"+ may also be possible.

The cold front will push east of the area by Saturday night, leading to a gradually tapering of precip from west to east through the night. Drier weather, and cooler temperatures, are expected Saturday night as we welcome a post-frontal airmass. Temps will be falling into the 40s overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

=====Sunday - Monday=====

Rain will have cleared before sunrise Easter morning with northwest winds bringing in cooler and much drier air for everyone on Sunday. Morning lows will be cooler in the low to upper 40s, meaning people may need jackets for early morning plans. Highs on Sunday will be cooler as well, ranging in the mid 50s to low 60s. The general synoptic pattern for Sunday and through at least Tuesday next week features our area being on the southern backside of a northeast trough. With a Canadian high pressure moving across the northern Great Lakes through mid-week, our CWA will experience general northwesterly to northeasterly flow, keeping temperatures cooler. Clear skies Sunday will allow the area to cool into into the upper 30s and low 40s. There is a low end threat for frost (<20%), but confidence is low for Sunday night based on temperatures alone. Higher threats for frost or maybe a freeze in northern areas increases Monday and Tuesday nights.

Monday morning starts off chilly in the 30s and 40s, but highs will warm into upper 50s and low 60s again. Northwesterly flow will remain with bright sunny skies based on the expected dry conditions in the afternoon. Slowly but surely, the Canadian high well to our north will drift to the east, reinforcing cooler air into the area Monday night. Overnight lows into Tuesday morning will be in the low 30s north to upper 30s in the south. Places north of I-64 have a likelihood of 50 - 70% of reaching temperatures below 35 degrees, meaning frost and some freezes are possible.

===== Tuesday - Friday =====

Highs on Tuesday may be the coolest this week, only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will make the day feel more comfortable at least. Beyond Tuesday, the Canadian high will continue to drift towards the east. Northeasterly flow at the surface will cool temperatures into the 30s again early Wednesday morning, meaning one more night of frost concerns can't be ruled out (30 - 50% chance being below 35 degrees in areas north and east of E-town). Eventually, the high moves away and lower level flow transitions to a southeasterly direction, warming temperatures from Wednesday through at least Friday. There may be some rain sometime on Thursday next week, though there is high uncertainty with how far south a potential cold front moves below the Great Lakes. Zonal flow aloft to weak ridging will make impactful rain events less likely. For now, warm and dry weather beyond Wednesday is the current long-term trend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will persist from now through the evening, though MVFR conditions are still possible with any scattered showers/storms this afternoon. Confidence is not very high and most of the area may remain dry. South-southwesterly winds will continue through the whole period, though wind gusts of 20+ MPH are possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as well. HNB and SDF may drop to MVFR as a front approaches from the west near the end of the period, where a line of leading thunderstorms ahead of light to moderate rain will occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions overnight until the front arrives Saturday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.