textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions will continue through Friday. Afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range each day.

* The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring widespread rainfall and gusts up to 30mph over the weekend. Most areas will receive between 0.75" and 1.5" of rainfall, though localized areas may receive up to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

=== Warm and Dry Through Friday ===

A weakening cold front is pushing through the region this morning and is currently located over central Kentucky. The front is expected to exit southern Kentucky around sunrise. A few mid-level clouds and a sharp northerly wind shift are noted along the cold front. The name "cold" front is a little misleading, as we will not see a change in temperatures. Though, this front will reinforce the dry airmass and keep quiet conditions through Friday.

During the afternoon, we will see peak mixing up to about 825mb. This will help to bring drier air down to the surface and for high temperatures to overachieve. HREF probabilities show a 50% chance of dew points less than 40F this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s in the Bluegrass and low 80s elsewhere. This will place afternoon RHs in the 20-25% range.

On Friday, winds will veer to the southeast as high pressure pushes off to the east and the tropical system approaches the Gulf states. Aloft, heights will increase as ridging shifts east and amplifies over the region. Expecting to see continued quiet, dry, and warm conditions. Afternoon RH will dip into the 22-28% range and temperatures will warm into the low-mid 80s.

=== Remnants of Hurricane Isaias To Bring Rainfall This Weekend ===

The National Hurricane Center has classified Hurricane Isaias as a Category One Hurricane as of this writing. This storm is expected to intensify as it moves north through the northern Gulf and make landfall on the northern Gulf coast. This storm is currently expected to reach a peak intensity of a high-end Category 2 Hurricane just prior to landfall Friday evening. Over the last 24 hours, the track has shifted slightly east and has sped up.

As the system moves north on Saturday, the rain shield will become expansive as it is quickly picked up by synoptic troughing. Currently, LREF cluster analysis and other ensembles show rain chances entering southern Kentucky and working north Saturday afternoon. Though, the gusty winds and better tropical rainfall will not enter southern Kentucky until Saturday evening and into the overnight hours.

Given that this system is moving through at an instability minimum, this will luckily bring a very low chance for tropical tornadoes. Additionally, ensembles show low CAPE values, which increases confidence. Though, if this system does speed up, southern Kentucky may see a chance for tropical tornadoes in the evening. These tornadoes are weak and brief.

Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, 850mb winds will be around 60-65kts and will quickly weaken. A stable layer at the surface will prevent any mixing of these winds down to the surface. Therefore, wind gusts are expected to be around 25-35mph over southern Kentucky and up to 25mph elsewhere.

Given the strong LLJ in the northeastern portion of the tropical cyclone, areas in southern and central Kentucky will see beneficial rainfall on Saturday night and Sunday. Area-wide, QPF will range 0.75-1.5 inches. Areas in southern and central KY may see totals up to 3 inches. Given very dry antecedent conditions, this rain is welcomed to help combat drought conditions. Any flooding concerns should remain localized during this event.

=== Drier Early Next Week ===

The remnant energy of the tropical cyclone will be swept northeast as troughing swings through the region. Precip chances will decrease from west to east early Monday morning. High pressure and ridging will build in behind, allowing for drier conditions and clearing skies. Temperatures look to remain slightly above normal in the upper 70s and low 80s through Tuesday. Mid week, stronger troughing may move across the northern CONUS and bring a cold front through the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A cold front is moving south through this region this morning. FEW mid-level clouds and a northerly wind shift are accompanying this front. By the afternoon, winds will back to the NW. During peak mixing this afternoon, we could see winds from 330 to 010 around 7- 10kts. As the sun sets, winds will become very light and veer to the east through the night.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.