textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold front approaching from the northwest will fire off scattered showers/storms later this afternoon and evening, mainly across southern IN and north central KY. Main impacts would be strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and lightning.

* A few showers/a storm will linger along and south of the KY Parkways on Saturday. Otherwise, pleasant temperatures and dry weather are expected this weekend.

* Severe Weather potential for Monday evening into Tuesday morning as a low pressure system moves through the region. The greatest threat for severe weather has trended to just west of the area, but continue to monitor forecast trends over the next few days.

* Active weather pattern continues through much of next week, with additional chances for rain/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday morning and again late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to move NE out of the area through tonight. No severe threats are expected with the remaining precipitation. Majority of the rain will likely be out of the forecast area between 2am - 5am tomorrow. The associated cold front will bring some low level clouds and slightly cooler temperatures with lows in the lower 60s for tonight. Skies will partially clear tomorrow afternoon with light northerly winds. Otherwise, tomorrow should be a pleasant day with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

This Afternoon and Evening...

At this hour, isolated showers and a scattered cu field have developed across the area, likely along differential heating boundaries as low-level moisture continues to increase from west to east across the lower Ohio Valley. Limited cloud cover this morning allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, hitting convective temps across the area. Current mesoanalysis data shows around 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE across the area, with limited instability in the 700-500 mb layer largely keeping a lid on deep, explosive convective growth so far this afternoon.

As we head through the next several hours, would expect additional convective initiation across the area, with the greatest concentration of showers and storms expected along and west of I-65 where the richer near-sfc moisture resides. In spite of the meager mid-level lapse rates, an isolated strong storm will be possible through mid-evening, with gusty winds being the primary storm hazard in addition to heavy rain and lightning. Given the limited overall forcing, would expect convective intensity to diminish rapidly after sunset, though rain showers should continue later into the evening hours. While many locations will see no rain (and those which do see a shower should generally receive less than 0.25"), 6-hr HREF LPMM data shows narrow swaths of high-end rainfall amounts to around 1- 1.5" where any training of heavier storms occurs. With that being said, flash flooding is unlikely given the particularly dry antecedent conditions.

Tonight...

A general dwindling of precipitation coverage is expected between 9 PM and midnight as lingering showers/storms weaken. However, as a cold front stalls over the region tonight, deeper moisture will linger, particularly across KY. Additional rain shower chances are in the forecast, with the greatest prcouldobabilities along and south of the KY Parkways after midnight tonight. Not expecting significant amounts with this activity, with most locations receiving 0.25" of rain or less. Outside of any shower chances, lingering low-level moisture will lead to favorable conditions for fog/mist development, especially in areas that receive rain this afternoon. HREF probabilities of less than 1 mile vsbys range from 20-50% across much of the area, so that's something we'll have to look out for overnight. Temperatures should remain mild with lows only in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

By Saturday morning, the remnants of the sfc "cold" front will be draped across the Ohio Valley, with the front most apparent as a wind shift and a moisture gradient. In the vicinity of this gradient and points south, low clouds and a few lingering showers should continue Saturday morning, with llvl moisture expected to mix up into a stratocu layer by midday. As daytime heating increases, llvl moisture south of the front should be great enough for isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, to develop. The best chances for this (20-40%) will be along and south of the Parkways. Points to the north and west could see scattered cu develop, but decreasing moisture should limit precip chances. Winds behind the front should veer around to the N/NE, with speeds up to 10-15 mph expected. Temperatures will be pleasant on Saturday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s likely.

Saturday night, drier and somewhat cooler air will continue to push across KY from the N/NE. Clearing skies are expected during the evening hours, although an additional stratus deck may try to push into the Bluegrass from Ohio by early Sunday morning. Given this light cooler/drier flow, lows should be able to fall into the 40s and low 50s across much of the area Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 404 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Sunday through Monday Afternoon...

Over the second half of the weekend, an upper-level shortwave ejecting across the southwest US should lead to amplification of the larger synoptic pattern across the lower 48. This should allow upper ridging to build over the Ohio Valley during the day on Sunday, with the sfc cold front completely dissipating over the Tennessee Valley as heights rise. Sunday is expected to bring mostly sunny skies with light E/NE winds keeping temperatures fairly similar to Saturday. Dry weather will continue into Sunday night as moisture begins to increase from the south and west.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper shortwave alluded to above is expected to move across the Plains, with upper diffluence ahead of this wave leading the sfc cyclogenesis from the lee of the Rockies into the central Plains. Given the relatively compact nature of the upper wave, it will race to the northeast during the day on Monday, with sfc low pressure tracking into the upper Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. Over the past 24 hours, there has been some convergence in medium-range ensembles showing a slower and generally more northerly track with this system. The first impact of this will be to decrease rain chances during the day on Monday, as it is increasingly likely that the daytime hours will remain dry across the area. Temperatures should be warmer than on Sunday thanks to increasing southerly flow and warm advection.

Severe Weather Possible Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning...

Monday afternoon and evening, a broad warm sector will extend up and down much of the Mississippi Valley, with our area being on the eastern edge of the greater pool of instability. Recent trends in medium-range guidance with a slower/more NW evolution favors storm initiation Monday afternoon over the mid-Mississippi Valley, farther to the NW than the thinking a few days ago. As we go later into Monday evening, showers and storms should approach the area from the NW. With the stronger upper dynamics now lifting farther to the north, storms will likely begin to merge into a squall line/QLCS, with guidance suggesting a fast progression off to the east- southeast. While instability across our area is likely to be quite a bit lower than areas to our west, it is still uncertain how much instability will be able to translate into the area, and if it will be sufficient to sustain severe-level convection.

While it is a low-confidence endeavor to predict exact threat levels and types this far out, given the decreasing instability and greater removal from stronger forcing with eastward extent, there should be a general downward trend in severe potential from west to east, as indicated by the SPC Day 4 outlook and most AI/machine-learning guidance. Also, given a higher likelihood of a cold pool- dominant/linear convective system by the time it reaches our area, would expect damaging winds to be the primary hazard across our area. With all this being said, it is still 4 days out, and shifts in guidance could bring the higher-end potential closer to southern IN and central KY.

Tuesday and the Rest of Next Week...

Any lingering showers should begin to clear to the south and east of the area Tuesday morning, with drier weather overall expected for much of the day on Tuesday. Behind the Monday night system, upper troughing across the western half of North America should begin to eject east, with height falls and a downward trend in temperatures expected through the rest of next week. Because of the more northerly trend in the early week system, we may have to watch the middle of next week as a secondary upper wave crosses the CONUS, bringing another storm system to the region. Recent model trends have favored a more northerly track with this system, allowing for the warm, unstable sector to creep closer to KY/IN. Machine learning guidance shows this potential well, with increasing probabilities of convective hazards into the TN/lower OH Valley for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Behind the mid-week system, a longer period of dry weather is favored as the cold front which will linger over the region from Monday night into Wednesday pushes farther to the south and east. However, by Thursday night into Friday morning, guidance signals another chance for rain across the region. Fortunately, by this point in the week, it is more likely that the storm track will be shifted far enough to the south that this will be an overrunning/stable precipitation event. Temperatures are favored to continue a downward trend as upper troughing sets up across the eastern CONUS next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain showers and a few scattered thunderstorms are moving through the area currently. Brief heavier rain showers will likely cause lowered visibility within the next several hours. Rain will start to move out of HNB/SDF/BWG between 04z and 06z. LEX and RGA will hold on to some scattered showers until early tomorrow morning. As the cold front pushes through the area, clouds will begin to drop into MVFR ceilings. LEX/RGA/BWG can expect to see sub 3k ft ceiling by 07z, while HNB and SDF should remain SCT/FEW025. Also with the passing of the front, winds will start to take a shift tonight and become more northerly by tomorrow. By 18z tomorrow skies will start to partially clear NW to SE over the region.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.