textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak cold front passes through the area tomorrow, bringing low clouds and little rain chances. Best chance for any drizzle or light rain will be east of I-65.

* Areas of frost are expected Friday night, with freezing conditions possible (20-30% chance) over southern Indiana. A more widespread freeze is forecast Saturday night.

* Dry and seasonable weather expected for next week with daily highs in the 60s and chilly nights in the 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

It is a very pleasant day across the region, with plenty of sunshine and temps in the upper 60s and around 70. There is some breezy winds though, with obs showing SW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph this afternoon. These winds will relax by this evening as we lose our mixing.

A weak cold front will slide through the area tomorrow, bringing low stratus clouds but not much of a rain chance. This front will lack any deep substantial moisture, though the SPC REFS 1-hour QPF probability for 0.01" tomorrow is mainly 10-20% for central KY, and closer to 30-40% for the Bluegrass region. Certainly not very high probs for measurable precip tomorrow, but soundings support maybe seeing some drizzle or very light rain for LEX and surrounding areas in our east. Highs for tomorrow could be slightly tricky to nail down due to the timing of the frontal passage, but generally expect upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow.

Cold air advection takes over in the wake of the front, and will usher in cooler temps for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday mornings will feature chances for frost or freeze, with Sunday morning showing the greatest probs for a freeze with lows in the upper 20s. There is high confidence in the need for frost/freeze headlines over the weekend, but we are still a little too far out to issue one on this forecast package. NBM probs for temps less than 32F are rather high for Sunday morning, with the entire area at least 50%, but upwards of 85-90% for Lexington and the I-75 corridor.

The upper flow regime takes on a more zonal component into next week, which keeps our weather dry and uneventful. Daily highs in the 60s expected next week, with chilly temps each morning. Next precip chance may not come until next Thursday, but even that is a low chance at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

An area of 5-7kft clouds continues to meander over southern Indiana tonight, while lower ceilings in the low MVFR to briefly IFR range are gradually sinking towards us from southeast Illinois. These should spread across the local airfields from northwest to southeast during the 09z (HNB) to 16z (LEX and RGA) timeframe, gradually lifting after 13z. Hence, the highest chance (40-50%) for transient IFR ceilings (and drizzle) will be at HNB during the 10-14z timeframe, while confidence was too low (15-30%) to warrant another line in SDF and BWG's TAFs for the 12-16z timeframe (and far too low at ~10% to include at RGA/LEX from 16-19z). With the incoming cold front, winds will switch to a northwesterly direction and increase to around 10 kt during the late morning/afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.