textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread rainfall ending east of I-65 this evening. A few strong storms with locally gust winds still possible through late afternoon down around the Lake Cumberland region.

* A few patches of drizzle may linger through Midnight tonight.

* Mostly dry weather takes hold late week through early next week with some frosty mornings, and some freeze potential Sunday and Monday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Now - Thursday Night...

The surface cold front is now pushing into the I-65 corridor, and will continue its slow push eastward to the I-75 corridor by early evening. Ahead of this feature, the 30-40 knot low level jet core will continue to lift to the NE, with periodic rain showers continuing across the eastern half of our CWA into the evening. Still watching a cluster of stronger showers and a few storms across our SE CWA where the nose of a meager instability axis resides. A few stronger storms with locally gusty wind remains a threat down there for the next 1 to 2 hours.

Outside of that, looks like rainfall totals are mostly ending up in the .75" to 1.5" range, with some clusters of 2.25" - 2.5" down across south central KY. Overall, a pretty beneficial rainfall especially for areas that had crept into D1-D2 drought conditions.

Things dry out from W - E heading into tonight, with some low level stratocu building in post-frontal. Time heights suggest that enough low level moisture may reside for some lingering patchy drizzle through around Midnight EST or so. This will be interesting as SDF has currently tied its daily record rainfall for November 4th at 1.47". Any drizzle could put us over the record. LEX has already broken its daily rainfall record with plenty of precipitation still to come.

Should dry out after Midnight EST with skies becoming mostly clear assuming the drying isn't overdone and post-frontal stratocu hangs in longer than expected. Temps should stay up a bit given light to steady winds behind the front. Looking for upper 40s and low 50s. Thursday should be pleasant with perhaps some upper sky cover and temperatures reaching the mid 60s. Cooler night Thursday night with lows mostly in the low 40s.

Friday - Wednesday...

A closed upper low will slide into the eastern Great Lakes region on Friday, with a trough axis expected to slide through our region as well. Looks like some low level moisture will pool in the 1000-800 mb range associated with these features, and could be enough to squeeze out some very light right rain and/or patchy drizzle. Otherwise, the extended portion of the forecast looks dry with unremarkable NW flow aloft and surface high pressure in control. We will have to watch for a cutoff low passing to our south around the Tuesday time frame, but for the moment the data suggests a dry forecast.

Friday and Saturday will be the coolest of this forecast cycle with highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Looks like some frosty mornings starting Saturday morning through Wednesday morning, however Sunday and Monday mornings may carry some freeze potential as well. In talking with UK Ag, this could be the cold spell that ends our frost/freeze headlines for the year given that the horticulture season is all but over. High temperatures do trend a bit milder back into the 60s for early to middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Cold front is pushing eastward across the region at this time with dry conditions already back in place for HNB, and another hour or so of -shra for BWG/SDF. For LEX/RGA, it looks like -shra will hang in until early evening. Despite the drying conditions from W to E, low ceilings (MVFR) will hang in a bit longer until the early evening for much of the area, and until around Midnight EST across the eastern TAF sites.

Surface winds will take on a steady WSW wind direction behind the front, and then may settle back to a SW wind direction later tomorrow. Skies should trend mostly clear tonight with perhaps a few upper clouds streaming overhead tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.