textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Patchy dense fog in spots over southern Indiana and central Kentucky tonight.

* Warming temperatures are expected this week with record warm minimum temperatures possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, and near record highs possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Active weather pattern expected for mid-late week with showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong/severe storms are possible Thursday into late Thursday evening, but the threat remains conditional at this time.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

The main concern early this morning continues to be patchy fog potential, some of which can be locally dense at times. Consistent upper sky cover is making it a bit harder to see the extent of fog cover, but it appears to be most prominent in river valleys. A few obs have bounced around between 1/4SM and 2SM, but overall any dense fog seems brief and transient. Think this will continue to be the theme in the pre-dawn hours given the upper sky cover continues and our light SE wind may actually tick up a notch or two toward dawn. SPS seems to have the current fog situation handled, and will continue to monitor through the early morning hours.

Otherwise, the rest of today looks dry with plenty of upper sky cover, but a more steady to even gusty, SSW wind taking hold. The warm advection will help with our continued milder trend as temps look to climb into the low and mid 60s for most. A few upper 60s may be possible down near the TN border.

Later tonight, a strong low level jet responds beneath an intense upper level jet impulse. This will create a good isentropic lift component, but with shallow moisture mainly confined below H85. As a result, not a lot QPF expected going into Wednesday, but will carry some low chance pops. Temperatures will be quite mild given the continued warm advection and increased cloud cover. In fact, some record warm mins look in jeopardy as lows only drop into the low and mid 50s.

The morning wave of light precipitation looks to push east Wednesday morning, with a brief dry period the rest of the day. Temps are expected to continue to trend milder into Wednesday with near-record highs in the 65 to 70 degree range on continued SW flow. Clouds are the limiting factor here for even milder temperatures, but won't completely rule it out either. The low level jet increases again on Wednesday night as another mid to upper level impulse ejects across the area and causes low level response and additional lower level moisture transport. A few rumbles of thunder could mix in across southern KY, but otherwise just some scattered shower chances. Could be close to a few more record-warm mins this night as well, but may fall just short.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Thursday - Late Thursday Evening...

A ~995 mb surface low is expected to move from the eastern Plains to the western Great Lakes by Thursday night, with a modest warm sector gradually destabilizing over our region through the day. Gusty SSW surface flow will help to achieve near record highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, while dew points climb into the 55 to 60 degree range beneath steepening mid level lapse rates. This should be good enough to yield at least 250-750 J/KG of ML CAPE as LREF/NBM have now suggested for several days. Not a lot of CAPE, but enough, especially considering that storm modes will be low topped (20-25K feet max?). This amount of instability in a more compacted convective column may allow for more intense updrafts than typical with meager instability. The overall shear profile is quite impressive with 80-90 knot exit region dynamics in the mid levels, and a modest 35 knot low level jet responding beneath. This could yield a mix of discrete or clusters of storms, including some potential to rotate given the veering profile with height/favorable hodographs. A few low-topped mini supercells seem likely with storm initiation, and then an eventual evolution more to multicell clusters or bowing segments the deeper into the evening we get. This one isn't a slam dunk as some data continues to suggest that capping may keep a lot of convection in check during the daylight hours when more potential for surface based convection would be present. In particular, the 17/00z Nam solution is pretty far north. Something to watch, and expect subsequent outlooks may be pushed a little farther north. Timing of initiation will be key to realize the better surface based or near surface based environment, with the most focus for any rotating storms across our western or northern CWA.

Thursday Night - Monday...

The cold front pushes through later Thursday night with the strong to severe storm threat gradually diminishing as any lingering instability is pinched off. Temps fall back into the 40s and low 50s by Friday morning with precipitation tapering from W to E. Not a lot of cold air behind this frontal passage with high temps settling back into the 50s and 60s for Friday. Depending on how much progress the frontal boundary makes through our area, we could end up with more overrunning precipitation developing later Friday into Friday night across our southern CWA as an impulse ejects out ahead of a SW CONUS shortwave trough. For the moment, looks like the bulk of the precipitation with this wave stays south of our CWA.

A third round of precipitation appears possibly by later Saturday into Saturday night as a more intense shortwave rotates through the region and ushers in a notable cool down behind the passing cold front Saturday night. Could see a change over to some snow showers with this system Saturday night, but likely woudln't be much in the way of impacts as we will be quite mild ahead of it, and usually cold air catching up for a modest changeover doesn't amount to much if any wintry precipitation.

Cooler temps and a dry pattern look to take hold for the later part of the weekend with highs back in the upper 30s and low 40s by Sunday and Monday. Sunday night looks like the coldest of the period by far with lows back in the low to mid 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Patchy fog in spots, but the TAF sites are mostly unaffected this morning. BWG/SDF have seen some brief/minor reductions, but should start to see some improvement as winds begin to pick up and upper sky cover thickens. Light SE winds give way to more steady S winds a couple/few hours after sunrise. There will also be a batch of VFR/MVFR threshold clouds working into the TAF sites along and west of I-65 later this morning into the afternoon. Upper clouds persist through later today and tonight along with an increase S to SSW wind between 10 and 15 mph, perhaps gusting up around 20 mph at times through the afternoon. Brief return back to VFR late evening, before MVFR ceilings return again overnight thanks to an increasing low level jet. May need some LLWS mention at some point, but current data suggests surface gustiness overnight so will hold off for now. Also have some Prob30 mention for some light rain moving in after Midnight at the northern TAF sites.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.