textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mainly dry with below normal temperature expected as we transition to late week.

* Warm-up into the 40s by Friday with a passing clipper system that could bring precipitation, mainly in the form of rain and snow showers.

* Overall milder trend heading into next week with the next chances for rainfall possibly arriving toward mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

The mid level shortwave trough axis has yet to slide through, and as a result still hanging onto some small light snow or drizzle chances across our far SE where shallow moisture lingers. Otherwise, variable cloudiness through the rest of the afternoon and evening may end developing back into a stratocu deck. Will advertise partly to mostly cloudy skies, along with perhaps some minor reductions to visibility in haze. Not enough to through a bunch of patchy fog wording in the grids, but something to watch in case radiational cooling conditions improve with less anticipated sky cover. Steady N surface winds this evening do drop off to a lighter and more variable component as we approach sunrise Thursday, so it is possible.

Another cold day expected for Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the area, and temps struggle. Highs only look to reach the upper 20s and low 30s for most locations, with perhaps some mid 30s down south toward TN. Looking for a pretty good amount of mid and upper sky cover, so will call for mostly cloudy skies. Won't get much help from the sun for any snowmelt.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

An upper level trough will continue to move eastward through Friday, and keep the region in a northwesterly flow aloft. Another clipper system will stretch south and bring snow chance to the Ohio Valley. The forecast guidance continues to bring the best snow probabilities into eastern KY during the day Friday. An area of wintry mix cannot be ruled out through the Bluegrass region as the freezing line will separate the forecast area. Winds will become gusty along with the system. Gusts are expected to be 20-25mph through the day Friday. We will continue to monitor the timing and possible impacts for this system over the next couple days.

This weekend, the region enters a more dry and warmer pattern as we remain in the NW flow aloft high pressure at the surface. Temperatures this weekend will trend in the low to mid 30s. Areas near the KY/TN border could see temperatures in the low 40s. WAA will enter the area Sunday and cold bring mid 40s through the whole region. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is associated with a shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary traveling east through the region. The system should bring in rain as precip as temperatures will still be trending warmer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 652 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR cigs are across the region this evening, and are expected to continue through tonight and tomorrow morning. Some patchy fog is possible, but not very confidence on vis impacts. Steady north winds continue tonight, with sfc winds going light and somewhat variable by tomorrow. VFR returns tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.