textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue across the area through mid-morning. Cloudy skies this morning should give way to a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon, with near record highs expected.

* Strong to severe storms are possible early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Multiple waves of storms are possible, with all severe hazards possible. The magnitude of the severe storm threat remains uncertain, with several mitigating factors existing.

* Cooler and quieter weather expected Thursday through Saturday.

* Another chance for rain, and possibly storms, returns by late this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Now Through This Evening...

Over the past few hours, low-level moisture return has begun to spread from SW to NE across the lower Ohio Valley, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing an increasing expanse of stratus at this hour. This has likely been spurred on by increasing SW'ly H85 flow, which should continue to spread across KY/IN over the next few hours before weakening after sunrise. This area of warm advection should serve as forcing for showers to develop across much of the area, with scattered coverage of showers spreading east between now and sunrise. Forecast soundings show a fairly stable layer between the sfc and 850 mb, with anywhere from a few hundred to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE present as elevated instability increases from SW to NE over the area. As a result, there could be a few thunderstorms this morning, especially along and west of I-65, though severe weather is not expected.

Later this morning, the H85 flow should weaken, with the coverage of rain showers expected to diminish after 9-10 AM. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies should continue through the morning hours as moisture remains locked in between the sfc and 800 mb. As we get later into the day today, sounding profiles show the low-level moisture start to mix out, and we should be able to get more breaks in the clouds, especially outside of southern KY. Breezy S/SW winds will support WAA through the day, with highs expected to be near records at all climate sites, ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s. While most locations should remain dry from mid-morning through early Wednesday morning, there may be a few spotty showers this afternoon, especially in southern KY.

Tonight through Wednesday Night...

After sunset this evening, most areas across central KY/southern IN should initially be dry as the better forcing for storms stretches from the Rio Grande Valley across the Missouri Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes. These storms will develop along and ahead of an expansive frontal zone and supporting upper trough ejecting from the Rockies across the central CONUS over the next 36 hours. The upper trough will actually be comprised of two separate pieces of energy, one a closed low currently over Baja California, and the other a northern stream perturbation moving across the northern US Rockies. Ahead of this sfc front/upper trough, a broad warm sector will extend from the southern Plains to the lower Great Lakes, with sfc dewpoints expected in the low-to-mid 60s.

Through around midnight tonight, forecast soundings show a fairly stout capping inversion around 850 mb, with showers and storms generally remaining to the NW of the area. After midnight, the potential for storms will increase across the region as mid- and upper-level energy from the remnants of the closed low over the southern Plains begins to eject across the mid-Miss. Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A source of forecast uncertainty is whether or not these pieces of mid-level energy and associated height falls aloft will be sufficient forcing (along with strengthening low-level WAA) to break the capping inversion and support convective initiation. There is a decent amount of spread in the amount of storms which develop early Wednesday morning in the hi-res guidance, with the HRRR and WRF-ARW being more aggressive with CI, while the NAM 3km is more suppressed. In general, would expect the best chances for storms to develop Wed. morning to be across southern IN and northern KY. Any storms which do develop would carry an all-hazards risk, though damaging winds would be the primary hazard.

As we head later into the day on Wednesday, the chance for strong to severe storms will continue across the region, but the magnitude of the severe potential remains quite uncertain and will be at least somewhat controlled by convective development Wednesday morning. As the northern stream trough begins to dominate, the sfc cold front will begin to push through the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. If storm coverage is greater Wednesday morning, there may not be enough time for instability to build before the front moves through, limiting the overall severe potential. However, limited storm coverage during the first half of the day on Wednesday would create an enhanced potential for a strong line of storms immediately ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. If this scenario were to play out, it would carry an elevated risk of damaging winds, as well as spin-up tornadoes. However, there exists an assortment of possible failure modes with this setup, so tend to agree with the maintenance of the Day 2 SLGT over the area. Current most likely timing with this line of storms would be between 2 PM and 10 PM Wednesday, with storms pushing quickly from NW to SE during the evening.

Behind the line of storms, there may be some lingering rain showers, with temperatures quickly falling as strong cold advection overspreads the region. Lows should fall into the 30s and low 40s by sunrise Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Thursday through Saturday...

The last of the precipitation should be clearing to the east of the area by sunrise Thursday, with the mid- and upper-level trough axis moving across the region during the morning hours. Broad subsidence in the wake of the trough axis should allow high pressure to set up over KY by Thursday afternoon, with skies expected to become mostly sunny later in the day. Cold advection and low-level NW flow will ease through the day, though temperatures should only recover into the upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s.

For Friday into Saturday, large-scale NW flow is expected to continue over the eastern CONUS, with relatively calm weather conditions expected across the Ohio Valley. Thursday night into Friday, an upper shortwave and associated jet streak will cross the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, bringing a sfc low and trailing cold front with it. The Ohio Valley should be on the southern edge of this disturbance, which should result in breezy SW winds and milder temperatures for the day on Friday, with highs recovering into the 60s in many locations. At this time, rain is expected to remain north of the area, with moisture mainly manifesting as a mid- level cloud deck.

The trailing cold front on Friday should dissipate near the region by Friday night before beginning to lift back to the north during the day on Saturday as the upper-level pattern becomes more zonal. Since it looks like we'll be in between systems, Saturday should be a fairly nice day across southern IN and central KY, with mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies being the most likely outcome.

Saturday Night through Early Next Week...

09/12Z ensemble guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic features for the end of the weekend into early next week. Overall, the upper-level pattern across North America should amplify as ridging sets up along both coasts, allowing troughing to descend from the Canadian prairies down into the Miss. and OH Valleys for Sunday into Monday. This troughing should hang around over the eastern CONUS for the first half of next week, gradually shifting eastward with time.

Though confidence/model agreement is good on the broad features of the pattern, more subtle differences in positioning and timing could lead to substantial differences to weather impacts across southern IN and central KY, especially Sunday into Sunday night. As the upper trough amplifies to our west Saturday night into Sunday, sfc low pressure should begin to deepen over the mid-Miss. Valley, creating strong S/SW flow over the Ohio Valley during the day on Sunday. The 12Z ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows medium-to-high confidence (EFI 0.7-0.8) in anomalously strong wind gusts on Sunday. These gusty S/SW winds should also support WAA and moisture advection ahead of a sfc cold front which is currently progged to move through sometime Sunday evening into Monday morning. Showers, and possibly thunderstorms, should move across the area with cold FROPA. The potential for any strong to severe storms will be dependent on smaller scale differences currently in the ensemble guidance. If the trough amplifies earlier/farther west, this would allow for more moisture/instability return, increasing the strong/severe storm potential. However, a delayed/east amplification of the trough would limit destabilization and reduce the severe potential. At this time, the AI/ML severe convection guidance is relatively modest over the region Sunday into Sunday night, likely reflecting the variance in model solutions.

As we head into early next week, at least a temporary pattern shift to cooler temperatures is expected as the upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS. There is some signal in medium-to-long range guidance for some post-frontal wintry showers next Monday, with temperatures likely some 25-30 degrees cooler than Sunday. Current ensemble consensus has the trough gradually shifting east through the first half of next week, with cool and mostly dry conditions favored over the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Moisture and low clouds are beginning to increase from SW to NE across the region at this hour, with MVFR ceilings currently observed from southern IL down to western TN. We're also beginning to see showers develop on radar to the SW of BWG. While the likelihood of SHRA continues in this forecast, confidence was lower in TS, so have removed it at this time. MVFR VIS and IFR CIGs will be possible in any heavier showers this morning. Ceilings should be in the IFR/low MVFR range for much of the morning, gradually lifting and potentially scattering out this afternoon. Would expect a return to VFR conditions at most sites after 18Z, with VFR conditions continuing into this evening. Winds will continue out of the S/SW today, with a few 20 kt gusts possible from midday through the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.