textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and storms linger through this afternoon into the evening hours. An additional 0.25-0.50" of rain is expected through KY, with isolated 1-2" in the SE CWA.

* Lingering rain showers and storms will return for the later half of the week into the weekend.

* Upper level ridging will move into the region bringing warm and dry conditions to end the weekend and start the following workweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 349 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Another round of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms is beginning in the southern and southeastern portions of the CWA, ahead of a slow moving surface cold front just south of the Ohio River. Per the latest mesoanalysis run, SBCAPE is rather modest ahead of the front, with values of 1500 J/kg or greater. Additionally, there is still a decent moisture pool in place, with over 1.7" of PW. Thankfully, the strongest forcing mechanisms have departed region to the east, resulting in a much weaker wind shear profile. With the instability and higher moisture content in place, the main concerns for the rest of the day today continue to be gustier winds, downpours, and lightning. The 12z HREF LPMM hinted at swaths of higher rainfall totals (>1"), so the potential for isolated flooding still exists in areas that experience heavier downpours and/or training showers/storms. Rainfall totals of 0.25- 0.50" are expected for the rest of the day today through this evening, with isolated higher totals of 1-2" possible.

For tonight, the cold front will continue to move southeastward across the region, exiting out of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Mid- level cloud cover will linger after the cold front passes through, with clearing beginning to take place late Monday night. There is a low (< 15%) chance for fog to develop tonight, with persistent cloud cover being the main limiter for most fog development. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front, helping usher in drier air and comfortable conditions that will last into midweek. Expect temperatures Monday night to drop into the low 60s with relatively light winds.

For Tuesday, surface high pressure will reside over the region, with skies continuing to clear through the morning hours. The northerly flow will allow slightly cooler and drier air to remain in place, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s/low 80s, and dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s. Winds will continue to be fairly light (5-10 mph), making for a fantastic day on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 349 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

With surface high pressure still in place through Wednesday, expect dry conditions to continue, as well as slightly below-average temperatures. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s, with highs on Wednesday currently forecast to be in the low-to-mid 80s. The surface high begins to break down late Wednesday as zonal flow starts to take shape over the region. A weak perturbation will move over the area Wednesday evening that could produce a brief shower, though the dry air in place will limit the extent of how much rain we experience.

By Thursday, a more robust shortwave develops east of the Rockies and moves towards the Ohio Valley, providing our next chance for widespread rainfall. Ahead of the shortwave, the weakening surface high will shift to the east, allowing southerly flow to return. Afternoon temperatures will be near-average for this time of year, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Decent instability will be in place, allowing thunderstorms to develop[ as the shortwave moves through, though weak wind shear will limit the potential for stronger storms to develop. With zonal flow in place, multiple shortwaves will pass through the area behind the late Thursday system, setting up a period of unsettled weather that will last into the weekend. LREF guidance pains an area of 1-1.5" across the CWA from the Thursday-late Saturday rainfall with the highest totals currently along and north of the Ohio River. By SUnday, the upper- level pattern shifts as amplified ridging covers the eastern half of the CONUS. This will help result in drier and warmer conditions for the region to end the weekend and to start the workweek, along with a potential return to highs in the 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A cold front draped just south of the Ohio River is slowly drifting southeastward across the terminals. Brief periods of rain will be possible as the front moves through, though terminals south of the front (BWG, RGA, and LEX) will experience more persistent showers this afternoon and early evening. BWG could also get an occasional thunderstorm, which is highlighted in the tempo group. Ceilings will hover between VFR and MVFR for BWG, LEX, and RGA prior to the frontal passage, transitioning to lower MVFR cigs and winds shifting to the NNW. For SDF and HNB, cigs will be in the lower MVFR range, with gusty winds decreasing in the coming hours. Cigs will slowly improve late Monday night, with VFR conditions expected across all the terminals by Tuesday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ035>037-039>043- 047>049-056-057. IN...None.