textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Brief light rain or drizzle possible early this morning in central Kentucky. Otherwise, mainly dry with clouds clearing this afternoon and highs in the 60s.

* Mostly sunny and dry on Monday with highs in the 70s.

* Very warm and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong cold front moves through the region.

* Dry and much cooler for Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A cold front is pushing southeast through central Kentucky early this morning, bringing low clouds and patchy light rain and drizzle. Winds are veering from the NW in the wake of the front, with cooler and drier air filtering into the region. Expect temperatures to dip into the low to mid 40s this morning across southern IN and portions of west-central KY. Lows southeast of a Bowling Green to Lexington line will most likely reach the low 50s. The zone of scattered light rain and drizzle will sink southeast through the morning hours, likely clearing the Lake Cumberland region by early afternoon.

We'll see a clearing trend from NW to SE this afternoon, with temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 60s for highs. A sfc ridge of high pressure quickly shifts over the area today and then off to the southeast tonight. Broad SW flow develops over the region this afternoon and evening and increases by Monday as another cold front pushes southeast through portions of the Plains and Midwest.

Tonight will be cool, with sfc winds remaining light and a decoupled BL. Expect lows Monday morning in the low to mid 40s, but a few of our coolest low-lying areas could dip into the upper 30s. Temperatures will rise quickly on Monday with increasing southerly flow and WAA. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Monday night and Tuesday, an upper low is forecast to be spinning northeast across northern Mexico. Meanwhile, a NW US upper level shortwave trough begins to amplify and sfc low pressure develops across the central Plains. SW flow moisture transport really increases from the southern Plains to Lower OH Valley, with local PW values once again rising above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Scattered showers (perhaps some storms at times) look possible in the warm sector of the developing system over the central CONUS. Expect mild and breezy conditions, with Tuesday highs in the mid/upper 70s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, the northern stream shortwave trough amplifies as it shifts eastward across the northern Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley. Most guidance continues to show this digging wave even interacting with the southern stream shortwave trough over the eastern CONUS mid to late week. This potent upper level trough will likely provide excellent synoptic scale ascent Wednesday into Wednesday night, which is likely when we also see a strong cold front blast through the area. Deep moisture and forcing will yield showers and thunderstorms, and the synoptic pattern and dynamics suggest severe storms and heavy rainfall are very much on the table. While it may be too early to dig into mesoscale details, SPC has outlined a broad 15% risk area in the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook.

Expect unusually warm, humid conditions Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the front. Temperatures will take a tumble late in the week with a healthy shot of cool air behind the cold front. Highs Thursday may be limited to the mid 40s to low 50s, with temperatures rebounding into the 60s for Friday. Lows in the 30s/40s will be possible for multiple nights Thursday through at least Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Sfc cold front has pushed through HNB and now SDF. This boundary will continue to sink southeast through central KY early this morning. Widespread low stratus (low MVFR as well as some IFR) will blanket the region this morning along and behind this cold front. Winds will also veer NW and briefly increase in its wake. Moisture looks just deep enough for brief light rain or drizzle along the cold front during the early morning hours. Brief vis reductions are possible in areas of drizzle.

Ceilings are forecast to lift back to VFR 15-18Z Sunday, with light winds through the rest of the forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.