textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a chance for light rain this morning, mainly across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across south-central and eastern Kentucky. The risk for severe weather is low.

* Cooler weather heading into early next week. Lows Monday night will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Conditions remain mainly dry at this hour, though clouds now blanket the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave disturbance. A curved band of light to moderate showers stretches southwest across southern portions of IN/IL. The mid-level wave and weak sfc reflection will slide east over southern IN and central KY early this morning. The band of showers off to our north and west will push east over the region while weakening through the mid-morning hours. These showers will struggle as they encounter drier low-level air and weakening low-level ascent (LLJ). So only brief, light showers look possible this morning, and the highest chance (50+ percent) for measurable rainfall is still across southern IN.

Clouds scatter out quickly in the wake of the departing wave, leading to a mostly sunny and warm afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid/upper 70s.

Tonight, a pronounced upper level trough will remain over eastern Canada. A deepening area of low pressure will spin northeast into Quebec, and this system's trailing cold front will sink southeast into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Sunday. With dry air ahead of the sfc front and no upper level support, we'll stay dry through the night with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The Canadian low pressure system continues to race off to the northeast, and its cold front will sink south through the area on Sunday. Again, low-level moisture return is limited ahead of this boundary. Weak large scale ascent will likely keep the first half of the day dry.

Modest destabilization is forecast to occur across south-central and eastern KY during the afternoon/evening (along and south of the cold front). Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in those areas, especially later in the day as a mid/upper level trough drops in from the NW and provides more synoptic scale lift. The severe weather risk continues to look low due to limited buoyancy and weak low-level flow.

Showers will be possible through Sunday night in a moist post- frontal environment, especially across southern and eastern KY. Northerly winds will advect cooler air into the region, with lows Monday morning ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s.

Monday - Friday...

Monday looks pleasant with high pressure building in from the NW. Look for mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid/upper 60s. Monday night will be chilly as cool high pressure drifts southeast across the Ohio Valley. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s will be possible, and sheltered valleys could get slightly cooler than that. Some patchy frost seems plausible early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures should rebound into the low 70s Tuesday afternoon thanks to SW flow WAA ahead of a compact wave over the Upper Midwest. This system continues to rotate southeast across the Great Lakes and will bring us our next chance for light rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Ceilings are briefly lowering to 5-8 kft at the start of this TAF period with the passage of a mid-level wave. Light showers have mostly dissipated, but cannot rule out a rogue light shower or sprinkle east of I-65 this morning.

Clouds quickly SCT out this morning behind the departing mid-level trough. Winds will veer WSW and increase to 10 kts after 15Z. Occasional gusts of 15-20 kts are possible 18-23Z today.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.