textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A widespread freeze is expected tonight, with a Freeze Warning in effect from 12 AM EST Sunday - 9 AM EST.

* Watch for a few slick spots near river valleys if fog is dense and temperatures are below freezing.

* After a quiet Sunday with highs near 60, a quiet weather pattern with highs in the 60s returns Monday-Wednesday.

* Increasing rain shower chances and colder for late week, including an outside chance at the first festive flakes of the year for some by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Now - Sunday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft combined with high pressure at the surface will continue to keep things dry through the end of the weekend. The biggest story will be the cold overnight lows as good radiational cooling allows for what should be the coldest night of the season so far. 07/13z NBM probabilities for temps 32 or below has some fairly widespread values over 70% meaning that a fairly widespread freeze seems likely. Ongoing Freeze Warning for tonight looks good for most of the area. Some of the typically milder urban areas may not quite get there, but even then, frost looks like a good bet. Will also likely have some river valley fog once again, and with temperatures likely below freezing in spots folks will want to pay attention for a few slick spots if driving through dense fog where temps are below freezing.

Temperatures do begin to recover a bit for Sunday with highs back near normal around 60 degrees. Sunday night will be chilly once again, but perhaps a bit milder than tonight. Most lows should be in the low and mid 30s, and may end up needing one more Frost Advisory here which will likely close out the Frost/Freeze headlines for the season. Collaboration on that will have to be done Monday with UK Ag and surrounding offices.

Monday - Wednesday...

Dry NW flow aloft will hold over the area for the early to middle part of the week. This will allow for continued dry conditions and moderating temperatures. There will be a weak shortwave moving out of the Red River Valley into the low/mid Mississippi River Valley later Tuesday night into Wednesday, however this lead features looks to have no notable impact on our sensible weather, at least initially. After highs in the low and mid 60s for Monday, Tuesday brings temps in the mid 60s to near 70. Similar temps are expected for Wednesday, but will back off a degree or two given increased sky cover ahead of the next system. Overall, these temperatures are considered a bit above normal values around 60 for this time of year. Morning lows will be in the 30s to low 40s, and will likely see some patches of frost, especially in the eastern cooler valleys.

Wednesday Night - Saturday...

An interesting evolution of the eastern CONUS upper pattern takes shape as we move into the later half of the work week and first part of the weekend. We'll see some likely phasing between the polar and subtropical jets as shortwave energy ejects across the Plains and taps into the sub-tropical wind energy and moisture. This will result in a developing strong system over our area, with a mature storm then progressing up the east Coast into New England late week. The exact timing and placement of this phase near our area will have an impact on how much precipitation we see later Wednesday night through Friday. Whether there will be enough lingering low level moisture far enough west over our area to support snow chances on Friday remains to be seen, but did notice a couple of rogue ensemble members from the 07/00z suite do show some light snowfall during that late week stretch. The more likely scenario is that the phase happens late enough that the system is too far east with bulk of the moisture, and that cold air doesn't quite catch up in time to allow for snow. We'll monitor trends through the week.

Look for a notable cool down the 2nd half of the week into the weekend. Highs on Friday are only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50, with low and mid 50s expected for Thursday and Saturday. Later Friday evening into Friday night would be the best chance for a few festive flakes assuming there is enough low level moisture still lingering to work with.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light and out of the southwest, peaking at around 5-8 kt during the afternoon hours Sunday. River valley fog could develop later tonight, but is currently not expected to impact any of the terminals.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.