textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible overnight tonight across central KY.

* Very warm and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong cold front moves through the region.

* Dry and much cooler behind the front on Thursday.

* Another system moves through late Sunday-Monday, with another round of precipitation possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A mix of sun and clouds are ongoing across the region this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. We'll remain dry through the rest of the afternoon and evening, but a weak mid- level wave is expected to move across the TN Valley tonight. Increasing southwest flow and WAA regime will keep temps mild overnight, and usher in low-level moisture advection. As a result, we'll see isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few elevated storms overnight, especially across south-central KY. Storms may be somewhat disorganized with under 30 kts of effective shear, and should remain elevated above the nocturnal stable layer. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger through the morning hours across south-central KY, but should gradually diminish in coverage and taper off to the east by late morning or early afternoon. Clouds will hang around for the entire day, but we will remain in a strong WAA pattern with breezy SW winds, and maybe some gusts up to 20-25 mph. Temps are expected to warm into the mid 70s by the afternoon. After a brief dry period during the early afternoon, low end precip chances will return for the late afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 335 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Tuesday Night...

As the warm front of the sfc low shifts away from the region to the north, a secondary front/shortwave moves over the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. This wave will allow for increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, with a conditional potential for some strong and severe storms to develop. The main uncertainty revolves around how much low level capping will be present, which will determine if storms will be elevated or able to become sfc- rooted. Though low and mid-level lapse rates will not be very impressive, an enhanced LLJ, 40-50 kt of wind shear, as well as modest surface-based and elevated surface instability could help fuel these storms to be a bit stronger during the late overnight hours.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night...

For Wednesday, the southern upper-level trough continues to move east over Texas while the northern jet digs southward and becomes more amplified over the upper Midwest. The sfc low deepens and moves to the northeast away from the Great Lakes, with its cold front extending to the southwest. The cold front will move over the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening hours, with moderate showers and storms likely as the front passes through. Deep layer SW flow will allow for ample moisture to be carried in over the region, with model soundings depicting around 1.5" of PW (near the climatological 99th percentile) ahead of the cold front. As a result, heavy rainfall could produce localized flooding.

Given the presence of warm and moist low-level air, strong deep- layer shear, and decent instability, severe storms are possible with this event. The finer details such as the timing of the frontal passage, as well as how much the atmosphere destabilizes after the early-Wednesday wave are still uncertain, so confidence on the extent of impacts from this storm are not very high at the moment. Winds during the afternoon hours on Wednesday could become elevated ahead of the frontal passage, with southwesterly gusts as high as 35 mph possible.

Thursday - Saturday...

As the front exits off to the east, cold air and sfc high pressure fill in over the region. Thursday morning lows will plummet into the mid-to-upper 30s, with highs only in the upper 40s/low 50s. Calm conditions will last through Saturday night, with overnight lows in the upper 30s/low 40s and afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 60s.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The northern jet stream digs southward Saturday night before becoming an amplified trough over the Great Plains by Sunday afternoon. A sfc low deepens ahead of the trough, moving towards the Great Lakes by Sunday evening. Its cold front will move over the Ohio Valley Sunday night-Monday, providing another round of showers and storms. Very cold air will fill in over the region behind the front, enough so that a few snow showers are possible during the day on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Most morning fog has lifted, but still dealing with some low stratus across a portion of the area this afternoon, resulting in some MVFR and IFR cigs lingering. Should generally see these cigs improve by this evening to VFR, but it will be short-lived as another disturbance will bring lowering cigs in the overnight. There will be a chance for scattered showers for SDF/LEX/RGA, and perhaps some thunder chances at BWG by tomorrow morning. Restricted flight cats are expected to prevail through the end of the forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.