textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy southern winds warm temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s through Saturday.

* Waves of showers and thunderstorms will bring 1-2 inches of rainfall through the weekend.

* Saturday night, a cold front drops high temperatures back to the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Today, we continue to see little in the way of change. Zonal flow remains over the CONUS with a tight pressure gradient remaining over the Lower Ohio Valley, driving gusty southwest to south winds to near 30 mph at times. This also continues to advect warm air and moisture into the region. Highs today are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The added moisture will help to develop scattered low level clouds mixed in with some scattered to broken high level clouds.

Tonight will be nearly a repeat of last night as winds remain gusty with gusts to near 20 mph, allowing temperatures to only fall into the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The long-term trend is quickly drying for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Total rainfall amounts have dropped from over 3 inches for some in the forecast from a couple of days ago to half of that and less across the CWA in the current forecast. This week will see more summer type convection where there are long dry periods with shots of precipitation. It's not going to rain all day every day, even though several days have high chances of rain almost every day through the weekend.

There are few features this week that could bring precipitation the the region. The first will be a cold front extending from the Oklahoma Panhandle northeast through central Indiana to the system's surface low in New England on Wednesday morning. With the front inching down towards the Ohio River on Wednesday, overcast skies and increased precipitation chances will work south over southern Indiana and into north central Kentucky as southern flow increases PWATs from the south to around one inch over central Kentucky, matching values along the front, but into the later afternoon/evening hours values could increase to 1.5", so shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day with enough instability in the afternoon to fuel some gusty thunderstorms. Shear continues to be lacking. Highs are expected to once again reach into the low to mid 80s.

On Thursday, as the front moves north as a warm front attached to a surface low moving northeast near Iowa, the CWA can expect a dry Thursday with WAA keeping highs in the 80s. By Thursday night, the system's fading cold front will bring another shot at a broken line of showers/thunderstorms. Instability currently looks extremely limited. High temperatures remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s through Saturday.

Saturday night, there is good model agreement that as a surface low passes through the Great Lake region, it will drag a trailing cold front, but the trend over the last couple of days has weakened the strength of this line of convection. High temperatures will see a major drop into the mid 50s to low 60s for Sunday and into the new week for Monday and Tuesday, but limited instability and shear will likely cause the line of convection to pass fairly uneventful.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Southwest to south winds will continue through the period, and like the current trend, we are seeing low level wind shear during the overnight period. This will come to an end with diurnal warming, but gusts will increase to near 30 knots. Breezy conditions will continue into Tuesday night. There is a chance later this morning that HNB and BWG could see a few hours of MVFR ceilings. Other area TAF sites are expected to remain in VFR levels.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.