textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, showers and thunderstorms are expected. This afternoon into evening, there is a chance for a few strong thunderstorms that could produce strong wind gusts and hail.

* Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s this weekend into the beginning of next week. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * Tuesday and Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Today, a surface high sitting over the Southeast will continue to funnel Gulf moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This moisture is combining over the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley with additional moisture arriving from the west being pushed by zonal flow. Precipitable water values are currently increasing and are expected to reach from 1.1" near Clinton County to around 1.6" closer to the Ohio River and into southern Indiana, and as shortwave activity moves east over the region, showers and thunderstorms will develop and push east through the CWA.

High temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s to upper 80s. Higher temperatures are expected in southern Kentucky as that area is expected to see less overall precipitation that is expected to limit temperatures.

This morning, thunderstorms will be possible, but model sounding look to keep most of the activity elevated with a stable layer at the surface. The treat of stronger storms is expected to be limited because of this.

This evening, as some of the areas of higher PWATs work farther south into central Kentucky and instability increases due to the diurnal warming (driven by strong WAA), surface based thunderstorms are expected to develop. We could see pockets of better deep layer shear around 35 knots with instability increasing to around 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE and MUCAPE values reaching closer to 2,000 J/kg. This will help some of the stronger cells to produce strong gusty winds in the environment with steep low level lapse rates. With these lapse rates continuing into the mid-levels hail is also a concern.

Any threat of stronger to severe thunderstorms depends on how much we are able to heat and recover by this afternoon/evening. Early cloud cover and rain showers are expected to limit temperatures along and north of Interstate 64, so this could leave the better instability farther south across central Kentucky for an late afternoon/evening thunderstorm.

Tonight, temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s as an upper trough begins to dig south over the West. With an upper ridge forming over the Midwest and pushing east, showers are expected to lift north away from the CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 407 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday and Monday, continued WAA with sunny skies will allow the heat to set in over the Lower Ohio Valley. The NBM continues to be on the warmer side of most other guidance and with the expected rainfall today into tonight, high temperatures were lowered slight to the mid 80s to upper 80s for Sunday and slightly warmer on Monday with temperatures in the upper 80s and crossing over into the low 90s. WAA at night will also limit cooling to the mid 60s to low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights.

Tuesday, rain chances begin increasing again. Continued southern surface flow will continue carrying moisture into the region ahead of an approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Wednesday morning, slightly earlier than yesterday's guidance. Deep layer shear continues to be limited, but with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the mid 60s, enough instability is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms until the passage of the front on Wednesday.

Wednesday's high temperatures are expected to be somewhat limited to the upper 70s in parts of southern Indiana due to the passing of the cold front. Areas ahead of the front are still expected to reach into the 80s with the mid 80s being reached in and around Clinton County.

Behind the front on Thursday, highs are expected to be around normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 70s, before temperatures begin to creep up into the low 80s by Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period, but the period is expected to be more active as showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west later this morning. This activity is expected to be most active to the north over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Believe ceilings and visibilities will remain mostly in the VFR range, but a heavy downpour could reduce visibilities for a very short time. Winds could get gusty with the morning activity, but with stable low levels chances become better for gusts from afternoon/evening thunderstorms that are expected to develop.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.