textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Conditions on Thursday will be blustery, with 20-30 mph gusts possible during the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible late Thursday-Friday.

* Conditions will continue to turn sharply cooler, with high temperatures likely (>90% chance) staying under 50 by Friday.

* There is a low chance for the first flakes of the season Thursday night into Friday mainly over the Bluegrass, but the warm ground should prevent anything from sticking.

* High pressure building in will allow for widespread dry weather Friday night through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 933 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

At this hour, many areas across central KY and southern IN are seeing some sunshine as we are currently between the initial post- frontal stratus and approaching stratocumulus from the NW. There is also a small area of mid-level ridging between the initial shortwave axis now crossing the Appalachians and a secondary shortwave which can be seen on WV imagery descending toward the Quad Cities and Chicagoland at this time. As we head through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours, surface heating should allow for steep llvl lapse rates to mix down some of the 20-25 kt 850 mb flow. Would expect winds to become more breezy, with sustained W/NW winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph likely. As the secondary shortwave approaches this afternoon, broad ascent combined with lingering llvl moisture and steep lapse rates should support the development of low-topped convection. 06Z REFS shows around 150-200 J/kg SBCAPE, along with 10-20% probs of >40dBZ reflectivity, so a few heavier showers and a stray rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. These heavier showers could bring a stronger gust of wind, on the order of 25-35 mph.

Made small changes to today's forecast to increase temperatures by a few degrees given a lagging secondary shot of cooler air and good amounts of sunshine. Also tweaked PoPs to reflect latest hi-res guidance showing a concentrated band moving through the area between 3-9 PM this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Blustery northwesterly winds have begun to overspread the region as the cold front associated with a deepening 1001 mb surface low over Ohio has moved through. Temperatures behind the front have also fallen decently, with some places in western Kentucky experiencing greater than 8 degree changes over the past three hours. The region is currently under a 30-40 kt LLJ, and while cloud cover and the nocturnal timing has impacted mixing, the sharp pressure gradient and pressure rises of around 1 mb/hr will allow for 20-25 mph (localized gusts > 25 mph) gusts through the rest of the night.

By daybreak Thursday, the pressure gradient overhead will begin to be less pronounced, allowing for a reprieve from the gusty winds. However, this will not last long as vertical mixing deepens throughout the day. 850 mb winds per the latest REFS remains in the 20-30 mph range, so with the decent mixing in place, expect 10-15 mph sustained winds and 20-30 mph wind gusts. With the combination of wrap around moisture from the low, steep low-level lapse rates, and another shortwave impulse swinging over the region, chances for scattered rain showers will increase Thursday afternoon, especially for places along and east of I-65. Enough wrap around moisture will still be in place to allow for chances of isolated to widely scattered showers Thursday night-Frdiay. While chances are not high, there is the potential for a few snow flakes to mix in with the showers that pass through Friday morning and Friday evening.

Looking at the synoptic pattern late Thursday and beyond, the previously mentioned surface low shifts towards the NE CONUS as a broad upper-level low situates itself over southern Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region. Multiple impulses around the upper low will swing over the Ohio Valley, reinforcing cold air overhead going into the weekend. While temperatures Friday morning will not be the coldest of the forecast period (mid to upper 30s), the afternoon highs will be, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 40s. Persistent cloud cover begins to retreat Friday night, allowing for decent radiational cooling to occur. From the latest LREF, probabilities of below freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning are greater than 70%, decreasing to the 40-70% range for Monday morning. Afternoon highs will struggle to get above 50 during the weekend. The best chances will be south of I-64 and west of I-65 on Sunday where there is a 50-70% probability (chances quickly drop off to the north and east.

With high pressure building in, especially late Friday and beyond, another dry stretch of weather will be in store for the Ohio Valley. By the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, the region will be under a 1032 mb surface high (~95th percentile climatologically) and a 578 dm upper-level ridge (>90th percentile climatologically), expected to persist well into next week. Temperatures will begin to moderate some, with afternoon highs closer to normal for this time of year in the 50s. Decent radiational cooling will keep overnight temperatures cold though, with near/below freezing lows possible through next Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 617 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

An cloud deck that has lower MVFR/IFR ceilings is departing to the southeast. The only terminal that is currently not in VFR is RGA, and they should improve to VFR by 17z. There will be a brief lull in wind gusts this morning before 18-23 kt northwesterly gusts persist during the afternoon hours Thursday. Gusts will diminish around 00z Friday, with sustained winds slowly diminishing as well through the overnight. Chances for showers will also increase during the afternoon, primarily for LEX and RGA, before chances decrease after sunset. Ceilings will begin to lower Thursday night, with MVFR ceilings currently for all terminals except BWG by the end of the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.