textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chances for light rain return across southern KY late Friday into Saturday morning.

* Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for most of the weekend, with warming temperatures expected early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1045 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

We are continuing to deal with a SW-NE oriented band of low stratus and patchy fog this morning on the cool side of a quasi-stationary front located along the KY/TN border. While most of this band of low- level moisture has mixed up into a stratus layer, we're still seeing evidence of patchy fog and freezing fog in mesonet cameras and AWOS obs on the southern fringe of the band of stratus. Have continued patchy fog mention for a few more hours in the locations which have seen the most persistent fog this morning - roughly from Grayson County across to Boyle County. This fog is expected to subside by midday as surface heating increases and the quasi-stationary front sinks a bit farther south.

The low clouds should be a bit slower to clear, but are expected to dissipate by late this afternoon as mid- and high-level clouds increase from the southwest. While light returns are starting to move into western KY and TN at this hour, most of this is not reaching the surface, and any chance for measurable rainfall should hold off until the evening and nighttime hours tonight.

The forecast is in good shape at this time, with minor downward adjustments made to temperatures within the band of low clouds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 408 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

A band of low stratus just north of a stalled boundary will likely stick around through the start of the day near the Ohio River over into the Bluegrass as high clouds associated with the next approaching system currently centered over Oklahoma this morning. As this system approaches, high clouds will continue to increase, keeping the day mostly cloudy. Temperatures are expected to be near normal with temperatures ranging from the low 40s north of the Parkways to the mid/upper 40s south along the TN/KY border.

The aforementioned system will work across the TN valley later this evening with spreading light rain showers across the southern portion of the CWA along the KY/TN border. With temperatures stay above freezing in the mid/upper 30s, all of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. The rest of the CWA, mainly north of the parkways will be cloudy with lows in the low 30s to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 408 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

High pressure builds in from the northwest on Saturday and settles in over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. We will remain under northwest flow aloft. Sensible weather will feature dry and seasonal temperatures with highs in the 40s for both Saturday and Sunday and lows in the 20s. Skies may start off cloudy on Saturday as the system from Friday night works off to the south and east. Skies will clear from west to east during the afternoon.

The upper pattern starts to flatten out and become quasi-zonal over the Ohio Valley at the start of the week. This will result in warmer, milder temperatures with a few precipitation chances. A shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday will bring a weak boundary across the Ohio Valley. Model guidance is suggesting this boundary will stall and become quasi- stationary around the Ohio Valley and the Commonwealth. With another system developing along the boundary and then working northeast into the region. At this time confidence is low as there is wide discrepancies in exact track and timing for the late week system.

Temperatures will warm into the 50s with even upper 50s to low 60s likely Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 650 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Stubborn area of low stratus, just north of a nearly stationary boundary continues to be a challenge this morning when it comes to flight categories. Current satellite imagery shows this swath of low- stratus along the Ohio River to around LEX. There has even been some IFR CIG associated with this stratus layer. Expected HNB, SDF and LEX to bounce around from as low as IFR to at times back to VFR through the morning before the low stratus layer can erode out. Should return to VFR by late morning or midday with high clouds streaming in from the next approaching system out over the Ozarks.

While anticipate light northeast winds and mid/high clouds for the remainder of the forecast some showers could sneak into the BWG near the end of the period while the rest of the terminal site stay dry overnight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.