textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across southern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is unlikely.

* An organized cluster of storms with strong winds will pass close to the southwestern portion of the CWA Monday morning. Continue to monitor forecast updates in case this trends back to the north.

* Dry and comfortable weather is expected through the middle of the week before moisture increases by next weekend. Shower and storm chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Today and Tonight...

Quiet weather continues across the region this morning, with satellite showing scattered high level clouds streaming from NW to SE over the region. Sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes is providing dry NE flow which has helped dewpoints to decrease into the 40s and 50s as of 07Z. The drier air should allow temperatures to cool into the 50s and low 60s across the area by sunrise, with no significant weather expected this morning.

Today, no significant changes to the large scale pattern are expected, with the Ohio Valley remaining within the mid- and upper- level ridge as troughs continue to spin across the northwest US and the Canadian Maritimes/northeast US. The area of high pressure over the Great Lakes is expected to weaken later today, with the center of the sfc high shifting toward the mid-Atlantic. In response, short range guidance shows an inverted trough developing on this side of the Appalachians by this afternoon. This subtle trough, along with a weak mid-level disturbance over the TN Valley, should allow moisture to creep back toward south central KY. By this afternoon, 0Z HREF progs show 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and south of the Cumberland Parkway. The sfc trough should also provide modest low-level convergence, enough for scattered showers and storms to develop. While 0Z hi-res guidance keeps most of the activity over Tennessee, areas along/south of the Cumberland Parkway still have a 20-40% chance of a shower or storm. Given around 15 knots of deep-layer shear, these should mainly be garden-variety storms, and severe weather is not expected.

Along and north of the WK/BG Parkways, dry weather should continue today, with light winds and a mix of sun and high clouds expected. Temperatures should warm into the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s this afternoon, fairly similar to the past few days.

Tonight, a decrease in convective activity is expected, although perhaps a couple showers could linger across the Lake Cumberland area. Where sfc dewpoints increase this afternoon and skies clear tonight, some fog development is possible, with the strongest signal in HREF guidance being south of the WK/BG Parkways. Temperatures should not be as cool Monday morning, with a continued gradient between upper 50s in the northeast CWA and mid-to-upper 60s in the southern CWA expected.

Monday and Monday Night...

Late tonight into tomorrow morning, showers and storms which develop over the Missouri Valley are expected to track southeastward into the mid-Miss. Valley as NW flow increase aloft. With a sort of "ring of fire" setup in place, these convective complexes should ride along a gradient in SBCAPE roughly parallel with the mid-level flow, taking them into the TN Valley during the first half of the day on Monday. These storms could be more organized, and could come very close to our SW counties (e.g., Logan, Butler, Warren, Simpson, etc.). While the Day 2 SPC severe risk has been pulled slightly SW, we'll still have to watch to see if these storms track a bit farther to the north, which could open up the potential for strong storms. Farther to the northeast, can't rule out isolated showers or a rumble of thunder; however, lower instability should limit any threat for stronger storms.

As we get later into the day on Monday, ridging to our west should build as troughing deepens over the east coast. This should allow for a backdoor cold front to drop into the region from the north, bringing a reinforcing shot of dry air to the region for the middle of next week. As that front drops through, additional isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible for areas roughly SW of a line from Tell City to Munfordville to Burkesville. Any activity Monday afternoon would have a lower severe risk, but gusty winds would still be possible.

With all this being said, many areas will see little to no rain on Monday, especially across the Bluegrass region and southern IN. High temperatures should be fairly similar, ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Monday night, drier air will continue to filter in as NE winds continue across the region. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to range from the low-to-mid 50s across the Bluegrass to the low 60s along and west of the Natcher Parkway.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Tuesday through Friday...

Medium-range guidance continues to show several days of pleasant and dry weather across the Ohio Valley during the middle of next week with near to slightly below normal temperatures. This will be thanks to the omega block over Canada breaking down, with the upper-level high pressure expected to sink toward the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. As the upper high moves south, 1030 mb sfc high pressure near Hudson Bay should likewise descend into the Great Lakes and Midwest during the mid-week period. As a sense of how strong and unusual this pattern is, Euro ENS mean MSLP fields exceed the 99th percentile of model climatology Tuesday into Wednesday across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As this strong high drops toward the region Tuesday, the pressure gradient should support what will be a fairly breezy day for June, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 15-25 mph likely.

With ensemble mean PW values expected to drop to near or below the 10th percentile, any mugginess should be suppressed well to the south of the region through Thursday. While the elimination of rain chances will be the main takeaway, lower humidity should also allow for bigger diurnal swings in temperatures, resulting in some cool nighttime lows Tuesday and Wednesday night. While daytime highs should warm into the upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread 50s are likely Wednesday and Thursday morning, and some upper 40s are possible in some of the cooler valleys.

By Thursday into Friday, a much more zonal flow pattern is expected across North America with low amplitude troughing expected over the Rockies and ridging expected over the Miss. Valley. This upper-level pattern shift should cause sfc high pressure to set up over the southeast US, with warmer and more moist return flow gradually returning to the Ohio Valley. It should be noted that guidance over the past 24 hours has delayed the moisture return, with precipitation chances decreasing on Friday as high pressure hangs on over the southern Appalachians. Temperatures are expected to trend upwards by the end of the week, with highs returning to the mid 80s.

Next Weekend...

In general terms, next weekend should bring a return of a more active/stormier setup as the less amplified flow pattern should allow for a series of disturbances to draw moisture back into the region. However, forecast confidence in specific windows of lesser or greater rain chances is fairly low aside from the typical daily maximum coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Given the lack of any consistent, well-defined systems, daily shower/storm chances are what you would expect of a summertime pattern: 20-50% chances, peaking during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures should continue to slowly warm to above normal levels next weekend, though this could be tempered depending on rain coverage.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A persistent 10 kt E/NE wind at all sites except BWG is expected to gradually ease over the next few hours, with winds becoming light and variable later this morning. VFR conditions are expected at all sites during the current forecast period, with the most tricky aspect of this forecast being a quite variable wind direction, although winds should generally be 10 kt or less today. At BWG, an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out this afternoon and evening; however, given the low probability (10-20% chance), we'll leave it out of the forecast at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.