textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening/night into Sunday as another cold front moves through the region.

* Monday through Wednesday of next week looks to be mostly dry and slightly cooler than normal with our next chance for widespread rainfall coming late Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Arriving ahead of a cold front, a line of decaying thunderstorms is approaching the CWA from the northwest and north. Directly north of the CWA, most of the lightning has ended as an outflow boundary is quickly diving south, away from the convection. The stronger part of the line remains northwest of the CWA, lying in a northeast to southwest orientation. This part of the line has its convection located closer to the outflow, but this area is also seeing weakening. Ahead of the storm, MLCAPE values continue to fall with increasing CIN. Mid-level lapse rates remain a little better west of Interstate 65, but low-level lapse rates are fairly stable over the whole area. This line will continue to produce a gust as winds switch towards the north, but any strong thunderstorms appear unlikely.

For the rest of the day, as the cold front pushes southeast through central Kentucky, showers and possible thunderstorms will continue working southeast through the region. The majority of any rainfall should exit the CWA this afternoon. With skies clearing behind the front, many areas will see a decent amount of sunshine today. Highs are expected to make it back into the low to mid 80s, but dew points will feel better as they fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s behind the front.

Tonight, zonal flow will push a surface high east over the Lower Ohio Valley. Winds will begin the night out of the north, but will veer towards the east by Saturday morning. Under mostly clear skies and light winds, some radiative cooling will help drop temperatures into the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Saturday, is expected to be a nice day throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Surface high pressure will get pushed off to the east by zonal flow. The day will start off sunny as south winds help push temperatures into the mid to upper 80s.

To our north in Ontario, a low pressure system is expected to slide east as its trailing cold front pushes through the Great Lakes and Ozark regions towards the CWA. Southern winds in the boundary layer will increase low level moisture, pushing precipitable water values between 1.5-2" Saturday night. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances ahead of the cold front, which is expected to pass through the region on Sunday.

Currently, guidance continues to show different solutions for how this will affect the CWA. One option has an MCS forming and pushing east towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky Saturday evening. If this happens, the worst of the severe weather is expected west of us, but model soundings do show strong instability continuing into our CWA. Shear looks fairly weak overall, but if this scenario plays out, we could see strong to severe winds as a large bowing segment moves east into our region as it weakens.

The other scenario would keep Saturday evening/night less active and would move the main show of showers and thunderstorms to Sunday, moving through just ahead of the cold front. If this plays out, the environment looks less unstable and less likely to produce severe weather.

Behind the front on Sunday, surface high pressure will usher in CAA. Temperatures on Sunday will see a slight reduction from Saturday's highs with highs in the low to mid 80s, but the cooling trend will continue with highs limited to the mid 70s on Monday. Daily warming will lift highs back to the mid 80s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 722 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

As a line of convection ahead of a cold front continues to push off to the southeast over the next couple of hours, LEX and RGA can expect to see a passing thunderstorm that may quickly reduce visibilities and ceilings for a few minutes before returning to VFR levels. Behind the front, skies are expected to quickly clear, leaving VFR conditions through the rest of the the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.