textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Surface boundaries will bring a weakening, broken line of showers and storms this evening. Severe threat is on the lower end with strong to damaging winds being the main threat.

* A cold front arrives Thursday morning with 80-90% chance of showers and a few storms possible. Fairly widespread rainfall between .5" - 1" is expected with locally higher amounts over 1.5" possible, especially along and north of I-64.

* This weekend is expected to remain active with off and on isolated to scattered showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A weakening, broken line of showers and storms will move SE into the forecast area this evening. A couple of surface boundaries and deep layer flow parallel to a frontal boundary is expected to lead to training storms this evening into the early morning hours tomorrow. A Marginal Risk area continues for today with the potential for damaging winds with any stronger storms that develop.

An axis of high PWAT values (near 2.5") will surge into the northern part of the area with the surface boundary this evening. Widespread rainfall amounts through the early morning hours are between 0.5" and 1". Any locations that encounter multiple rounds of rain could see amounts closer to 3". Areas along and north of I-64 have the best chance (50-60%) for 24-hour QPF greater than 1". The combination of higher PWAT values and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, strong to damaging winds will be the main threat. Any storms that do develop are not expected to last very long, as the majority of instability/forcing is diurnally driven.

Continued rounds of showers for the day Thursday as the frontal boundary stalls over the area, and a shortwave disturbance move through. The severe threat is expected to decrease through the morning hours as any remaining shear drops off. Localized areas of flash flooding will remain a concern through the day as showers train through the area.

Temperatures will drop off for the day on Thursday with low 80s in the northern half of the CWA and high 80s in the southern half. The cloud cover along with the frontal boundary will limit the daytime heating.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Friday - Saturday...

As of Friday morning, the surface cold front will have pushed through most of the CWA and lay along portions of the KY/TN border. A near-stationary shortwave trough lies overhead throughout the weekend, leading to widespread weak showers and pulse thunderstorms in the overnight hours heading into Saturday. Greatest chances lie in the southern and eastern portions of the area. Strong storms are not expected due to weak flow aloft; storms will likely struggle to maintain, with the main threats being pulse-type winds. Highs will be in the low to mid-80s on Friday.

Saturday leads to another round of widespread showers in the morning before surface heating gets going enough to give us a chance for a few isolated storms in the evening. Temps turn toward the 85-90 degree mark on Saturday, with dewpoints around the 75 degree mark, making Saturday hot and muggy.

Sunday - Tuesday...

The upper ridge maintains as we head into early next week, leading to weaker surface winds and encroaching heat in the upper-80s and low-90s with dewpoints once again in the upper 70s. Realistically, only a surface-level cap exists, so any cu formation has uninhibited vertical development opportunities. However, there also isn't a whole lot of shear to work with to maintain the updraft and very little forcing exists, so only pulse-type storms should be expected. Isolated evening showers stay in the forecast for Sunday and Monday, with better chances creeping in Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 706 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Wind gusts are starting to relax this evening, though now the focus turns toward scattered showers and a few storms moving into the region ahead of a cold front. Generally expect VFR conditions to continue for this evening, though weather conditions will become less favorable into the overnight with showers and possible thunderstorms impacting all terminals. Temporary reduced vis and gusty winds will be possible with any storms near the terminals. By tomorrow morning, expect cigs to lower as the front passes through, with MVFR categories expected. Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the rest of tomorrow too.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.