textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Minimal rain chances to start the work week with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

* At least a low (15-30%) chance for afternoon showers will continue across south-central and eastern Kentucky through Tuesday.

* A front approaching from the northwest will bring isolated to scattered chances for afternoon and evening storms later this week into next weekend. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

*** Monday and Monday Night ***

Patchy fog will accompany some for their morning commute, most likely for areas east of I-65. Warmer and drier conditions for the forecast area to start off the work week. Maximum temperatures will look to warm into the low to mid 80s today with partly cloudy skies. With dewpoints in the mid 60s, today should be a really nice day. Rain chances are very minimal (5-10%) for areas in south central KY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 218 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday, the main feature of interest for our weather across central KY and southern IN will be a meandering cutoff low initially over Georgia Tuesday morning. To the north of this feature, shortwave ridging is expected to pass across the midwest on Tuesday, keeping the low and associated richer moisture suppressed to the southeast. Perhaps a few showers or a storm could develop for areas closer to the Cumberland Plateau Tuesday afternoon; however, HREF probabilities of measurable precipitation are only 10-15% at this time. Otherwise, dry, mostly sunny conditions are expected, with highs generally in the mid 80s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, an approaching shortwave on the leading edge of broader troughing over central Canada is expected to begin to draw the closed low northward toward eastern KY, bringing higher PWATs (1.6-1.8") and sfc dewpoints with it. This should support greater chances for daytime heating-driven showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I-65, where 40-60% coverage is expected. The flow aloft will still be seasonably weak, so would expect mainly single cell summertime showers and storms, with severe weather very unlikely. Temperatures will be nearly identical to Tuesday, if not a degree or two above persistence.

The broad trough over the north central US and central Canada should absorb the closed low by Thursday, resulting in an upper level pattern with ridging across the western CONUS and along the Atlantic seaboard with baggy troughing across the Midwest. This pattern should persist Thursday through the first part of next weekend, allowing a sfc cold front to approach the region from the northwest. There is some timing discrepancy between medium-range ensembles, but in general, Thursday is still expected to feature a relative minimum in precipitation coverage, with shower/storm chances increasing Thursday night into Friday. Modest mid-level flow should increase deep-layer shear to around 20-25 knots late week, potentially supporting a few multicell clusters. Additionally, a slight increase in moisture should lead to somewhat higher instability. However, generally speaking, the parameter space favors more garden-variety storms with potentially a strong storm or two Friday into Saturday. Temperatures should approach climatology for early August by late week, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90.

With the upper trough not currently expected to amplify late week into next weekend, the sfc cold front should hang up to the north of the area next weekend. Continued seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected through next weekend. Shower/storm chances are expected to become more isolated Sunday as the cold front washes out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

As the morning fog clears the ceilings will also begin to improve for all sites. By 16-18z, all sites will be back to VFR and remain for the forecast period. Skies will begin to clear this evening with only SCT/FEW250 into the night. Winds remain mostly light out of the NE, with the exception of a possible brief period this evening with gusts around 15kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.