textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong cold front will push across the region today bringing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. There is a low risk of strong storms along and east of the I-75 corridor. Rain showers will continue into mid-evening.

* Much cooler and drier weather is for the last part of this weekend and into early next week. Frost is likely across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Monday morning.

* A warming trend commence by mid-week with the next chance of precipitation toward the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Early morning observations reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures ranged from the low-mid 60s out in the I-75 corridor to the lower 70s along and west of I-65. Area radars remain generally echo free at the moment. Surface analysis shows a cold front from central IL extending southwest into southwestern MO and moving steadily east. A widespread band of showers and some thunderstorms was accompanying the front. For the remainder of the overnight hours, quiet weather is expected. A few showers will move into southwestern IN and our northwest CWA toward dawn.

For Today, upper level trough axis over the northern Plains will move through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes tonight. At the surface, aforementioned cold front extending from IL into southwest MO will continue to move eastward into IN/KY. Numerous rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move into southern IN and western KY this morning and will gradually overspread the region by late morning and into the afternoon hours. Widespread cloud cover and anticipated precipitation will limit diurnal heating today. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s along and west of the I-65 corridor. Highs in the low-mid 70s with a few upper 70s near the I-75 corridor are expected. Instability across the region will quite limited today due to the ongoing cloud cover, so strong storms are not expected this morning. Some restrengthening of storms could occur over our far eastern areas this afternoon where slightly better heating occurs. SPC has removed the marginal risk of severe from much of the region and only keeps our far eastern areas in a marginal risk this afternoon. Main threats with any storms this afternoon would be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.

Surface cold front still looks to sweep across the I-65 corridor between 200-400 PM EDT. Ahead of the front, winds will be breezy from the southwest, but a quick shift of winds to the northwest is expected behind the front. Behind the front, widespread low clouds and showery precipitation is expected to continue through the afternoon and into the mid-evening hours before diminishing by midnight. Temperatures will cool off rapidly behind the front with temperatures falling into low-mid 50s by early evening. By mid- evening temps will fall into the upper 40s/lower 50s, with overnight lows eventually dropping into the upper 30s by Sunday morning.

Upper trough axis will rapidly advance eastward and pass through the region during the day on Sunday. An expansive area of high pressure will build into the region from the west. Partly sunny skies are expected for Sunday with highs warming into the upper 50s to around 60 in the Bluegrass with low-mid 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. Clear skies and light winds are expected for Sunday night. This setup will likely bring areas of frost to southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky late Sunday night and Monday morning. Sunday night lows will drip into the mid 30s in the Bluegrass with upper 30s to the lower 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

As we move into next week, the upper air pattern across the CONUS will start off with troughing in the east and troughing off the western US coast. In between, a mid-level ridge is expected to develop across the central Plains. This ridge axis will slowly advance eastward keeping the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow aloft for the first half of the week. By mid-late week, the west coast US trough is expected to move inland and into the Rockies before amplifying across the Plains. Another frontal boundary will push across the Plains resulting in an uptick of convection from the MO Valley northward into the Midwest by Friday and this activity will likely move into our region by late Friday and into Saturday.

Highs on Monday will remain in the upper 50s across the Bluegrass region with low-mid 60s in the I-65 corridor and point west. A broad southerly flow is expected to develop by Tuesday which will allow temps to warm back well into the 70s by Tuesday and into the upper 70s to near 80 by Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are expected for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 646 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Convective outflow boundary has passed through HNB and will pass through KSDF around 1200-1230Z. This will primarily be a short term wind shift to the northwest, but winds will veer back to the southwest ahead of the actual cold front which is still back across eastern IL and into MO this morning. Ahead of this approaching frontal boundary, widespread rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Will keep a mention of VCTS in over at HNB, but coverage looks to sparse to carry at SDF/BWG. Cigs will start off as VFR but they will decrease into the MVFR range by mid morning. As the front crosses through the I-65 corridor early this afternoon, cigs will further lower into the low end of the MVFR range. There remains a chance of some temporary drops to IFR cigs between 18-22Z at SDF. Best chance of thunder this afternoon will be over at KLEX where some diurnal heating will take place. Cold front will exit the region this evening. However, we'll see additional rain showers trailing behind the front until mid-evening. Cigs will improve from west to east this evening with SDF expected to go back to VFR by 18/23Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.