textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, gusty southwest winds increase highs to the upper 80s to low 90s.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the region late Thursday night through Friday night. Showers may return across southern KY through Saturday night.

* Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected for the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

As the upper level, positively tilted trough shifts east the Ohio Valley is positioned downwind of the trough axis. Strong southwesterly flow continues to bring in moisture and warmer temperatures. Increased pressure gradient and mixing heights above 6k ft will bring wind gust this afternoon over 25 mph. Winds will subside overnight with 5 - 10 mph southerly winds. Maximum temperatures for this afternoon are expected to be in the low 90s across the area.

The low pressure that is associated with the upper level troughing, begins to lift into a more zonal flow pattern aloft. A cold front will then begin to push southeast through the area early Friday. This in combination with ample moisture will bring widespread rain showers through the day Friday. Rain chances will increase starting in southern IN between 2AM - 5AM, and move SE through the CWA. Ahead of the boundary, PWATs over 2 inches will surge into the area. Heavy rainfall rates can be expected, however hydro concerns are low. QPF values will range 0.5" - 1" across the CWA. No severe threat is expected with this system as instability is limited and wind shear is marginal.

Maximum temperatures on Friday will vary north to south as the frontal boundary will be set over the area. Along and north of the Ohio River will likely only see highs in the mid 70s, while south central KY highs in the low 80s. Rain chances will decrease late Friday with 30% chances in the southern part of the CWA through Saturday morning.

Post frontal boundary, surface high pressure will build in bringing northeasterly flow back to the Ohio Valley. A cooler and drier airmass will build back into region making for a pleasant weekend. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to upper 70s with nighttime lows in low 50s. Ridging and high pressure will continue for the first half of the week with mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will look to stay around climatological normals to start the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Marginal LLWS will be present briefly tonight before 12z. Winds will continue to be light and out of the south through the night. By daybreak, strong SW flow are going to increase winds with gusts 20-25kts. Skies will become BKN/OVC with ceilings between 15k and 25k ft.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.