textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread rainfall totalling 0.5-1" is expected now through Sunday morning. Isolated areas of 2-3" are possible in central KY and east of I-75.

* Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH are possible at times early in the afternoon with an SPS issued across most of the CWA. Winds gradually weaken late Saturday evening heading into Sunday.

* Dry and warm weather expected for early-to-mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

===== Gusty Winds and Showers Today and Sunday =====

Now in the pre-dawn hours, winds are light with high level overcast skies streaming in from what's left of Isaias. Dry air already in place from a surface high pressure will slowly drift eastwards. THis will keep conditions at the surface dry until about mid morning when strong moisture transport will try to overcome the low level RH values in the mid 50s. Despite the onset virga, PWATs will eventually raise near 1.5" or more by the afternoon, moistening the atmospheric column enough for light to moderate banded rain showers at times. This will indicate the northern shield of Isaias moving overhead, with rain activity becoming more scattered or spotty by the afternoon hours. Instability will be very little to none during the day, meaning any thunder will be limited to non-existent. Wind gusts is of greater concern as the center of the remnants of Isaias draws closer to KY. In tandem with the slowly departing high pressure at lower levels, a pressure gradient will build, allowing easterly wind gusts of 30-40 mph at times, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph, especially early in the afternoon. Throughout the afternoon and evening, wind gusts will gradually weaken as the center of the remnants of Isaias draws closer. In fact, the center of the low should move over our SE CWA. All the while, off-and-on rain showers will be present. Due to the persistence of cloud cover and rain showers, highs will struggle to get out of the 60s today. Any highs reaching the low 70s in the late morning will cool by the afternoon from the incoming moisture.

Speaking of, later Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a main axis of moisture will be draped directly over central KY. Aided by a strong jet near 700mb, a few moderate rain showers could produce rain rates of near an inch an hour as this axis of moisture drifts east of I-75. Scattered rain showers will slowly begin drifting east as the center of Isaias departs to the east as well. Rainfall totals will be lesser across our SW Indiana counties with higher totals across the Bluegrass region. Generally anywhere from 0.5-1" totals are expected, although isolated areas could receive 2-3" across central KY and east of I-75 where that axis of increased moisture will pivot as Isaias drifts away.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, clouds and showers will gradually clear from west to east, with warmer temperatures expected out west with more exposure to the sun. Highs range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the CWA.

===== Next Week =====

Beyond Sunday, a return to ridging in the middle of the country and troughing in the west will allow a SW flow to return to our area. This will boost highs unseasonably warm into the mid 80s across our west with upper 70s across the east. As the ridging amplifies Tuesday afternoon, a few places near the TN border will reach the upper 80s as the ridge keeps shortwaves of energy to far north to cool temperatures down. Eventually heading into Wednesday and days beyond, the ridge will break down somewhat and our CWA gets caught in a battle of influence between strong passing lows over southern Canada, and continued ridging across the southern US. Recent trends have suggested a stalling boundary draped over the Ohio Valley bringing low-end rain chances Thursday and Friday, whilst other trends brings a more robust trough swinging from Canada by Friday pushing out the southern ridge and a return to cooler air. For now, low PoPs have been included in the forecast due to model spread with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue this morning before a band of moderate rain moves in from the south. ENE wind gusts will increase by mid- morning and may gust 25-30kts at times, with sustained winds of 15- 20kts by the afternoon. Rain may be heavy at times and will allow ceilings to steadily fall throughout the day. By the afternoon, rain will become spotty in nature. A region of MVFR and IFR ceilings at times will move north out of Tennessee, lowering flight rules across all terminals by the evening and overnight hours, affecting BWG first in the afternoon. -SHRA persists into the overnight along with lowering visibilities near 4SM. Combined with lowered ceilings, IFR- MVFR conditions are expected across all terminals by 12Z Sunday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.