textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, gusty southern winds bring warmer temperatures.

* The rest of the week, above normal temperatures and precipitation chances are expected with multiple systems moving through the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The frost advisory and freeze warning has expired as temperatures have warmed above freezing. Highs today are still on track for the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is slightly above normal for late March.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 433 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

We begin the day with quite a range of temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to low 40s across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Earlier clear skies helped temperatures to quickly drop, but satellite imagery currently shows scattered to broken high-level clouds moving in from the northwest with some mid-level clouds west of the region. This should help limit some of the cooling.

For the rest of the day, mildly amplified upper ridging will slide from near the Plains towards the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure sits centered off the Virginia/North Carolina coast. With low pressure centered over the central Plains, south to southwest winds will remain over the CWA, and with a tight pressure gradient keeping winds gusting to 20-25 mph, WAA is expected to lift temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tonight, WAA continues, limiting falling temperatures to the low to mid 50s, but with increasing cloud cover and around a 10 mph wind, it's possible temperatures remain a little warmer. Advecting Gulf moisture will lift PWAT values to near an inch over our Kentucky counties by around 9-10z as a weak shortwave passes the region with a 40 knot low level jet in place. This could result in a few isolated to scattered showers over central Kentucky after midnight into Monday morning. The best chances will be east of Interstate 65 into eastern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 433 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Monday, with the risk of early morning showers and additional cloud cover, believe the already low risk for an isolated shower is reduced further, but if enough sun can get enough instability to develop, an isolated afternoon shower could be possible. Given current trends it's probably pretty safe to plan for a mostly dry day. Continued strong WAA will likely lift highs into the 70s to near 80 along our western counties, west of Interstate 65.

Tuesday, the warming trend continues with temperatures warming into the 80s over the whole CWA. This could once again lead to another afternoon chance for an isolated shower or two. Thunderstorms would be possible as the warm temperatures will lead to some instability if a cap could be overcome. With little in the way of shear, wouldn't expected anything too serious to develop, but again the chance of rain is only around 10 percent.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low passes east through southern Quebec/northern New York while dragging a cold front towards the CWA, and with moisture continuing to get pushed up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by the surface high over the Atlantic, PWATs continue increasing over the CWA to around 1.25-1.3". The west to east oriented front is expected to stall in the region, leading to showers and thunderstorms remaining in the area through early Wednesday night. There continues to be little chance for anything severe given the weak shear, but a thunderstorm could produce gusty winds with the little bit of expected instability. The front will limit high temperatures to the upper 60s over southern Indiana to the mid 70s from Bowling Green, the southern Bluegrass and the Lake Cumberland areas on Wednesday.

Wednesday night, guidance continues to show a shortwave, digging south through New Mexico into Texas, in the middle of a split upper jet. The shortwave will help develop an upper trough and surface low near the Ozarks before quickly pushing the low northeast just north of the Ohio Valley. This would keep the bulk of precipitation chances north of the CWA, making for a mostly dry Thursday, but scattered showers/thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

By Thursday night, PWATs increase to 1.5-1.6" ahead of the system's cold front. This would bring a better chance for precipitation to the Lower Ohio Valley through the first half of the day on Friday. Again the severe threat continues to look pretty low, but widespread showers are expected. WAA would help push temperatures back into the 70s through Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday, a stronger cold front is expected to push through the area. This could bring a return to high temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s for Sunday, Most current models have the front arriving Sunday morning with sounding profiles looking pretty stable with continued weak shear.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Today, winds will continue veering towards the southwest as low level wind shear remains an issue for a couple more hours. After the inversion breaks, winds will become gusty. Gusts to near 25 knots will be possible before winds ease this evening. Ceilings remain VFR through the period. Late in the period, isolated to scattered showers could near BWG, LEX, and RGA with the best chances at RGA. Marginal low level wind shear will also likely develop again over the region.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.