textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Saturday, showers and thunderstorms move east through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Gusty winds should be expected.

* Calm weather Sunday - Monday, until pattern changes with light showers Tuesday and a line of moderate rain through midweek along with warm temperatures still.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley currently sits between surface high pressure to the east and an approaching low to the west, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient. South winds which have gusted to around 25 mph have pushed temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Cumulus have developed in the warm air mass. A few isolated showers could develop through the rest of the afternoon into tonight, but chances remain low.

Tonight, the surface low, to the west over Kansas, will quickly slide to near the Great Lakes as it drags a cold front through the Ozarks towards the CWA. South winds increase as the front nears, keeping low temperatures in the 60s. Precipitable water values increase from around 1.1" early in the night to near 1.5". Dry conditions are expected to last for most of the night, but in the moist environment an isolated shower remains possible ahead of the main line of convection.

Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms quickly begin to move into Dubois County between 12-14z. With the northeast to southwest orientation of the line, our southern Indiana counties will likely see precipitation before the line moves into central Kentucky. By around 17-18z, expecting the line to be near Interstate 65 before the eastern side of the CWA is reached around 20-21z.

Model soundings continue to show a marginal environment for strong thunderstorms. Currently believe most convection will remain sub- severe. MLCAPE values are expected to fall between 500-750 J/kg with DCAPE values under 400 J/kg. Cloud cover ahead of the line could help to limit instability. 0-6 km shear will be strong enough, around 40 knots, to support organized severe weather, but unidirectional shear will help to limit the tornado risk. Gusty winds are the greatest threat with some small hail possible, but moist sounding profiles and narrow hodographs look to limit the threat. High temperatures are expected to climb back into the low 70s in parts of southern Indiana to the low 80s in parts of the Lake Cumberland area as dew points reach the low 60s.

Saturday night, the bulk of the precipitation is expected to end early as the main line of convection moves east out of the CWA, but after a dry period, a skinnier line of broken precipitation is expected to move east through the region along the actual cold front. This could take the rest of the night to get precipitation to come to an end near Clinton County, but with that said, most people will see a mostly dry night. The front will cause cold air advection to drop temperatures in southern Indiana to the low 40s while the Clinton County area only falls into the mid 50s closer to the front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Sunday morning, despite a few showers possible in our southernmost communities, skies will eventually clear west to east as a cold front clears the area in the afternoon. With a surface high pressure moving in behind the cold front, clear or mostly sunny skies will prevail by late afternoon and a general westerly flow. Highs on Sunday will range in the low to upper 60s with dry conditions. Calm weather will last at least through Monday morning as ridging in the upper levels will try to build over the Ohio River Valley. Monday morning lows will be a little cooler in the low to upper 40s though temperatures will warm quickly as a SW flow from a building ridge returns to the area. Clear skies with calm weather continues and highs will range in the low to upper 70s.

Weather pattern changes overnight Monday and into Tuesday as moisture feeding in from the Gulf ahead of an incoming trough from the west will bring in low level clouds and some light to moderate rainfall rates throughout the day on Tuesday. Morning lows are still mild in the upper 50s to low 60s, under continuous SW flow. WAA along with this moisture transport will create light rain showers at times with some breaks in showers and muggy. Total QPF remains low, and long range guidance has a general agreement on rainfall totals, with everyone remaining below 0.2" Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be warm in the mid to upper 70s. Remaining on the warm side of the incoming trough, lows will be mild Tuesday night and into Wednesday in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Though the timing of this incoming trough on Wednesday isn't nailed down yet, a line of showers and storms are possible sometime late Wednesday morning lingering into the evening hours. We could see additional rainfall totals of around an inch in some areas, as both the lift associated with the trough and moisture being supplied from the deep south associated with the SW flow of a cut off low, rain chances could linger into Thursday morning. Eventually, rain does clear and a NW flow cools Thursday highs to near the mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Warm temperatures from southern winds have caused cumulus to develop over the region, but besides gusty winds this afternoon, the rest of the day VFR conditions are expected. Tonight, a low level jet will bring low level wind shear over area airports before a cold front brings showers and thunderstorm to the region tomorrow morning. Precipitation will first arrive at HNB before continuing eastward to the other area TAF sites. This line of convection could drop ceilings into MVFR levels and reduce visibilities for short periods of time during heavy rainfall.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.