textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered rain showers this afternoon will begin to taper this evening. Mainly rain is expected, though graupel or a few snowflakes could mix in within the heaviest showers.

* Clearing skies tonight may lead to the development of patchy fog early Saturday morning. Temperatures falling below freezing may cause slick spots to develop on elevated surfaces.

* High pressure building in will allow for widespread dry weather this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

This Afternoon through Tomorrow Night...

Satellite shows an expansive stratus field over the area this afternoon, with a few embedded cumulus where showers have developed. It's a fairly typical setup given the upper trough which extends from the Mississippi valley all the way to the east coast of the US. Persistent cold advection within NW flow combined with low cloud cover has made for a chilly, blustery day, with most locations in the low-to-mid 40s this afternoon. Most of the precipitation which has fallen this afternoon has been rain, though there have been reports of graupel and/or snow mixing in within the heaviest showers. While surface wet-bulb temperatures are in the upper 30s and low 40s (unfavorable for frozen precip), llvl lapse rates remain steep. ACARS soundings from SDF show observed freezing heights around 2600 ft AGL, though saturation within the heaviest showers combined with cold air being pulled down to the surface has likely supplied just enough cooling for the mixing of wintry p-types. Hi- res guidance suggests that scattered showers should continue for areas mainly east of a Paoli, IN to Tompkinsville, KY line through the late evening hours, steadily diminishing in coverage after sunset.

The area of richer low-to-mid level moisture will begin to push off to the south and east of the area over the next several hours, with pockets of clearing observed on satellite over central IN. Would expect this area of clearing to grow as we lose daytime heating this evening, with a clearing trend from NW to SE expected during the mid- to-late evening hours. The clearing skies and weakening NW winds should allow for more cooling tonight than last night, with forecast lows expected to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s by sunrise Saturday.

Something that we'll have to watch for is the development of patchy fog, particularly in valleys and areas which receive rain/drizzle this afternoon and evening. 12Z REFS guidance shows some potential for fog development, and the likelihood of clearing skies and residual near-saturated conditions within the BL also support this scenario. However, winds will still be around 10 kt at the top of the near-sfc inversion layer, so there may be just enough turbulence to prevent much fog development. However, any fog which develops could lead to slick bridges/overpasses and other elevated surfaces Saturday morning given the below freezing temperatures, so extra precautions should be taken if traveling early Saturday.

Tomorrow, the upper trough will begin to nudge slightly to the east, with sfc high pressure approaching the region from the NW. Residual llvl moisture, reinforced by a fetch off of Lake Michigan should support the development of stratocu during the day, especially across the Bluegrass region. Variations in cloud coverage should cause temperatures to vary from NE to SW across the area, with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the Bluegrass to the low 50s west of I- 65. Clouds may try to fill in Saturday night from NE to SW, with patchy fog possible in areas which stay cloud-free. Low temperatures Sunday morning are expected to range from the mid 20s to around freezing.

Sunday through Next Week...

Omega upper ridge pattern sets up across the middle of North America for the weekend into early next week as the trough over the eastern CONUS continues to gradually move into the Atlantic. Surface high pressure will sink toward the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with the heart of a cP air mass spreading across the eastern US. The blocked flow pattern should support fairly consistent weather conditions from Sunday through Tuesday, with the dry air mass (PWAT well below 0.50"/10th percentile of climo) supporting large diurnal temperature swings between sub-freezing lows and highs in the 50s and low 60s.

For the second half of next week, the upper ridge axis will begin to shift eastward as troughs eject across the northern Plains and central Canada. While these disturbances are not currently expected to bring any significant weather to our area, the eroding of the upper ridge should allow more warm return flow into the Ohio Valley. Above normal temperatures should return by the end of next week, with increasing probabilities of high temperatures over 70 Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

BKN skies are pushing off to the southeast at this hour and allowing for clear skies behind. In the early morning hours, fetch off of Lake Michigan may bring some MVFR CIGs into northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. This is mentioned at SDF, and will monitor over the next several hours. Patchy fog will also be possible. By mid- morning, any fog and low CIGs will lift. Winds will be NW and light 5-9kts through the day. In the afternoon, BKN VFR CIGs (around 5- 7kft) will move over the Bluegrass region and attempt to spread SW.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.