textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Milder temperatures and mostly dry weather expected for Monday and Tuesday.

* Active weather pattern returns by mid-week with precipitation chances arriving Tuesday Night and continuing off and on into next weekend. Precipitation should initially be rain, though the chance for wintry precipitation does increase later in the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 904 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with another cold night expected. Look for variable mid and upper sky cover for most of the area, however our Bluegrass counties should see a more persistent band of low to mid level clouds. Nighttime microphysics shows an elongated cloud deck associated with 925-700 mb moisture stretching from the upper Midwest, through our area, and off the Carolina Coast. One of the odder satellite images I've seen in a while. Regardless, the only notable impact this feature could have is to keep low temperatures slightly "milder" if it persists the whole night. You can see the swath of clouds in the KY Mesonet temperatures already with teens and low 20s on either side of the cloud deck, and more solid mid 20s where the clouds are persisting.

Only other thing worth mentioning tonight, deals with a fast forward to tomorrow night. Looks like we could be seeing setup for a somewhat rare advection fog event. High pressure shifts off to our NE later Monday, with a light to steady SSW to SW flow taking hold. This influx of milder/more moist air combined with some melting during the day may set the stage for a healthy advection fog event across central and maybe southern KY. Seeing hints of it in several different models, but not all of them. Something to watch going forward by the pattern/setup combined with the signal in the models seems to be legit.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 322 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

This Afternoon

Satellite imagery shows a band of mid-level clouds stretching NW to SE over the Ohio Valley. The region will remain mostly cloudy with cloud bases 8000 ft and higher through today. Temperatures are expected to reach above freezing in majority of the forecast area. Southern IN and north central KY will range low to mid 30s, while counties along the KY/TN border could see mid-40s. Easterly winds ranging 5-10kts will continue into tonight.

Tonight into Tomorrow

As we move into tonight areas could see a brief, partial clearing in clouds, but mostly cloudy sky are expected. Temperatures through the night will stay in the 20s for the NE half of the forecast area, with low 30s in the SW. The region will most likely remain dry, however there is a low chance for precip into tomorrow. With temperatures hovering around freezing at this point, this could result in rain or freezing rain. Guidance is not in agreement with this possibility due to the uncertain amount of moisture in the area. This will be something to keep an eye on tonight.

Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night

An upper level ridge moves over the area tomorrow, which will bring a warm and dry pattern to the Ohio Valley. This will bring maximum temperatures tomorrow in the high 40s to low 50s across the forecast area. Sky cover should remain partially cloudy, which will help the minimum temperatures stay above 30 degrees. A chance of patchy fog will be possible late tomorrow night into early morning Tuesday. Soundings are supporting a very shallow, low-level area of saturation, however guidance is trending towards a slight increase in winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 322 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tuesday - Thursday...

On Tuesday, a weak cold front associated with an Ontario low will be quickly approaching from the northwest. A separate upper level wave is forecast to begin accelerating ENE across northern Mexico. A split subtropical jet will gradually merge with the polar jet by Wednesday. As these features interact, deeper moisture is drawn northeast along the front. However, it continues to look like the sfc cold front could push most of the way through KY by the time deeper forcing and moisture arrive in the Lower OH Valley. Thus, the highest rain chances remain across south-central KY Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Southern IN and even portions of north- central KY may stay totally dry through this period. Most likely rainfall amounts are around 0.10-0.25 inches across southern KY, with QPF quickly tapering off to the north.

Warm W/SW flow will allow temperatures to continue to rise into the 50s and 60s along and ahead of the cold front Tuesday. Expect a rather large north-south gradient, perhaps enhanced by the lingering snow/ice cover. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 50s along and north of I-64, with mid/upper 60s possible in southern KY.

Dry conditions are forecast Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with high pressure building across the region. Along with the high, cooler air spills into the region from the north. Temperatures will fall back into the 30s Tuesday night, with highs on Wednesday in the 40s to low 50s. Wednesday night will be chilly with cool NE flow in place - expect lows below freezing. Thursday looks fairly quiet with highs in the 40s.

Thursday Night - Next Weekend...

Precip chances return to the area as early as Thursday night and remain through Saturday in a relatively active pattern. A band of snow is not out of the question over parts of the OH Valley Thursday night into Friday, with fgen snow on the cool side of a NW to SE baroclinic zone. ECMWF EPS precipitation type probabilities continue to favor snow during this time frame.

However, a drier trend for Friday is also possible if the boundary ends up just a bit further south. The forecast for Friday and Saturday (and beyond) remains fairly low confidence, with multiple potential scenarios. For example, we could miss out on the snow with a somewhat drier Friday, but see increasing rain chances heading into next weekend. Most guidance does suggest some warm, moist air advection from the south ahead of a deeper southern stream wave.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR will prevail through this forecast cycle. Do expect some variable mid and high clouds through the overnight, along with a light to steady E wind. Later Sunday morning, winds should slacken and go light and variable, before finding a light SW component for Sunday afternoon. Could have a few lower clouds Sunday morning, but expect coverage isn't enough to make a ceiling, and cloud bases should be above the VFR/MVFR threshold.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.