textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly across southern Indiana and southern Kentucky. Central Kentucky should stay warm and dry.

* Unsettled weather with localized areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible in KY and southern IN Monday - Tuesday midday.

* Daily rain chances with muggy conditions are expected to last through the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

This morning, variable cloud cover is noted on satellite imagery across the region, which has led to different rates of heating as of 14Z. Temperatures where there has been greater mid-level sky cover are generally in the mid-70s, while areas with more sunshine have already warmed to around 80 degrees. With the band of mid-level clouds expected to gradually move to the NE and dissipate somewhat over the next few hours, would expect areas currently under clouds to catch up by mid-afternoon.

One potential exception to this could be along the KY/TN border, as satellite imagery and latest 925 mb analysis shows a plume of higher near-sfc moisture and clouds pushing in from TN this morning. This may stunt heating if shallower stratocu can make its way to the north by this afternoon.

As the previous short term forecaster mentions, it still looks like most of the area will be dry today, with two areas in the far northern and southern CWA that could see isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Coverage is still expected to be 20% or less in these areas, and weak deep-layer shear and modest instability should lead to fairly short-lived, single cell convection.

The forecast is on track at this hour, with minor upward adjustments to high temperatures made for areas which have seen more sunshine this morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Interesting setup across the region today as we sit under an upper ridge axis stretching from the SE CONUS up through the western Great Lakes. This feature is bookended by two separate shortwaves, one moving into the mid Mississippi River Valley, and the other other over New England. At the surface, a stalling frontal boundary trailing from the New England system will settle across central IL/IN/OH, possibly down to the Ohio River by this evening. Normally, an upper ridge would keep our area dry, and this will mainly be the case. However, we will see enough of a trigger from the frontal boundary across our north for perhaps a few showers or a storm, and across our SW CWA as deeper moisture ahead of the upstream shortwave starts to make it into our area. Kind of a squeeze play scenario as we sit between two synoptic features. Will keep some low chance pops across our northern CWA (I-64 north), and down along the TN border across our SW CWA to account. The central part of the CWA looks to stay dry.

Will have at least some isolated t-storm chances in these areas as well as HREF data shows a 20-30% chance of up to 1000 J/KG of ML CAPE. No real deep layer shear to speak of, as mentioned in the previous discussion, so no strong to severe threat really expected.

As we move into tonight through Monday, any activity associated with the stalled frontal boundary will steadily diminish with the loss of heating, and focus will then shift to our western CWA as the main deep moisture plume begins to move in ahead of the slow moving upstream shortwave. Most of the shower and storm coverage will be along and west of I-65, and across southern KY before sunrise on Monday. Then, expect numerous showers and storms over the entire CWA through the day. Not much has changed with the thinking through early week as this setup checks several boxes that point toward a localized heavy rainfall threat through Monday, and likely into Tuesday. Very high PWATs (~2"), slow storm movement thanks to weak deep layer flow, tall/skinny CAPE profiles, and a deep freezing level above 14K feet. WPC Slight Risk looks good for much of the CWA, and now that Monday is in the range of the 07/00z HREF, we are seeing that signal in the PMM data for some localized higher amounts outside of the lower basin averaged QPF values. Luckily, the PMM values don't go as high as the HREF Max member, but will keep an eye on trends. We may have to consider a Flood Watch as we approach the Monday through Tuesday time frame. Wouldn't expect widespread flood problems, however could see a scenario where several localized flooding issues arise if repeated slow moving heavy rainers impact certain areas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

=====Tuesday - Wednesday Night=====

Some consensus is building between mid-range trends in ensemble means, pointing towards a mid level shortwave trying to erode the SE high on Tuesday. This means there will be a broad lifting mechanism for showers and weak storms Tuesday night. This is an interesting set up as the shortwave tries to merge with the overall mid level flow within pronounced ridging over the eastern US. Models have struggled with the strength of the SE high. The trend now appears that this shortwave will act to weaken the ridge, despite strong subsidence at 500 mb, with heights approaching the 90th percentile. What we will have working in our favor for widespread rainfall are PWATs ranging 1.8-2" -or higher- over KY on Tuesday behind an advancing warm front. Any kind of forcing could easily create locally heavy downpours Tuesday afternoon as the shortwave slowly trudges eastward with weak synoptic flow over the Ohio Valley. This is further supported by the Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall issued by the ERO on Tuesday.

Overall, this means Tuesday features continued southwest flow lingering into the evening hours. Widespread showers and weak storms will continue in the morning and afternoon before slowly ending west to east Tuesday evening. From the continued presence of cloud cover and rain chances, Tuesday's highs will be a bit cooler than previously thought, in the low to mid 80s. With a tropical air mass in place and with no strong flow to push higher PWAT values and dew points away, we will likely see continued daily rain chances through mid week. Morning lows with this moist air mass overhead will be well above normal as well, nearing record warm lows in some areas which will be monitored as needed in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Wednesday.

Guidance becomes very uncertain with Wednesday's rain chances, with decent spread in the long range daily rainfall totals. 25-75th percentiles have a 0.5+" disagreement with one another, indicating the uncertainty with the placement of the original shortwave moving through and the advancement of stronger trough swinging down from central Canada. Should more rain showers stick around, highs on Wednesday will be cooler in the low to mid 80s but for now, forecasted highs will be near 90 degrees.

=====Thursday - Saturday=====

As mentioned before, the original shortwave may finally move eastward far enough to allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 80s to low 90s. Though with PWATs remaining higher in the 1.5-1.75" range, afternoon storms will return. By Thursday night into the weekend, a stronger trough will be swinging down from central Canada which may serve to bring more widespread rainfall Friday into Saturday. If this trough remains too far north, then regular diurnally driven storms will continue. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s by then.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for much of this TAF cycle, although some deteriorating conditions in rain showers and/or lowering ceilings could occur later today into tonight as a slow moving disturbance moves toward our region, and a weak frontal boundary sags southward toward the Ohio River. The main theme will feature variable mid to upper sky cover with light SSW-SSE winds between 5 and 10 mph. Can't rule out a few sprinkles or light showers at BWG or SDF late morning into early evening, but not real high confidence here. Also, there could be some lower ceilings that move into BWG/HNB by the end of this forecast cycle late tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.