textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Very mild this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Rain showers are likely this evening into tonight in central Kentucky, and there is a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

* Cooler and dry Wednesday through Friday.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall reaching as far north as central Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

The forecast is on track for this evening to this point as showers, and a few rumbles of thunder, have overspread much of the area along and ahead of a cold front. This frontal boundary will continue dropping southward through the night, with focus for the best shower coverage shifting from central KY to southern KY as it does so. KY Mesonet obs do show that some areas have already picked up a quarter inch of rainfall, so have upped the overall QPF a bit across central and southern portions of KY to account. Some localized areas may reach into the .5" to .75" range before all is said and done later tonight. Not a big deal, but it will add to the liquid that was part of the snow melt earlier today. We are seeing some bumps on area streams and rivers, but shouldn't be anything they can't handle.

Otherwise, the other concern for the overnight will be steady cold advection taking hold behind the departing frontal boundary, and temps dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s along and north of I- 64 once again. The winds staying up may keep the temps from dropping too low, but still some spots will likely get below freezing. Given how much snow melt, and puddles are still on roadways patchy black ice will be a concern going into Wednesday morning. Will issue another SPS to raise a bit of awareness.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is lifting northeast over northern Mexico this afternoon, with broad mid and upper level ridging the Lower MS Valley and Lower OH Valley. A deeper upper level wave and associated sfc low are rotating east across Ontario. This northern system will drag a cold front southeast through the OH Valley later this afternoon and evening. We've seen fairly robust near-sfc WAA and moisture advection via strengthening SW winds. Sfc dewpoints have risen well into the 50s, even touching 60 degrees in southern KY. Meanwhile, temperatures have surged to around 60 degrees north of I-64, with low to mid 70s noted across south-central KY.

The low-level warmth and moisture will yield weak destabilization of the warm sector airmass just ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE of 100-250+ J/kg looks reasonable in central KY, which will result in a more convective nature to any showers that develop this evening. There is also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. As for the development of precipitation, it will still take some time due to drier air aloft. There is good consensus among CAMs for a thin band of showers to develop along or perhaps just south of the Ohio River after 6-7 PM EST. The band of showers will then sink southeast through central KY with an expanding footprint tonight. The rain should clear the Lake Cumberland region early Wednesday morning prior to sunrise.

The potential for convection, as well as ensemble paintball reflectivity 40+ dBZ, suggest brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in central and southern KY this evening into tonight. Again, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Conditions dry out early Wednesday morning from NW to SE, with winds veering northerly and bringing cooler air into the region behind the cold front. Temperatures will drop back into the 30s early Wednesday, and areas north of I-64 could see upper 20s.

Sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest on Wednesday. A lingering thin layer of moisture should yield SCT-BKN stratocu for a cool, partly cloudy day. Afternoon highs will range through the 40s. The sfc high moves overhead Wednesday night and Thursday, with broad upper level ridging centered over the Plains. The weather looks cool and quiet through this stretch, with morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Sfc high pressure gradually shifts off to the east Thursday night through Friday night. A weak low pressure system should develop ESE over the Red River Valley, but it appears any appreciable moisture should remain southwest of the region. Thus, dry weather is the most likely scenario at this time. Highs on Friday may be able to rebound into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday - Monday...

A deep upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS will stream eastward across Texas and eventually the Southeast this weekend. A sfc low is likely to pass south of the area, though confidence is lower on the exact track/evolution of this system. Deep S/SW flow should advect quite a bit of moisture north into the Deep South and likely into the TN Valley. Isentropic ascent across a warm frontal boundary could yield heavier rainfall into portions of central KY, though how far north the moisture reaches is questionable. At this time, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is most likely across south-central KY late Saturday into Sunday. QPF of 1+ inches is quite possible, though the rainfall amounts are likely to change as the weekend draws closer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Showers and likely a few storms are expected through around Midnight across central KY as a cold front slides south across the area, and storms move W to E through the region. Not quite confident enough in coverage of TS to include any mention, but it would be most likely at BWG over the next several hours. Along with the SHRA and vis restriction some MVFR ceilings are also expected as the front makes its passage. Could even dip briefly into low MVFR/IFR, especially at LEX/RGA. Surface winds will veer around to W and then N as the front passes, with steady N winds then persisting through tomorrow. Return to VFR happens overnight, expect at LEX/RGA where some lingering/prolonged MVFR ceilings are expected until sunrise or mid to late morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.