textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from this evening trough Saturday morning for wind chills dropping to near 0 to -10 degrees.

* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Saturday morning through early Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Significant accumulations of snow and sleet across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and significant accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across southern KY. High probabilities of Major impacts through the weekend.

* Very cold temperatures remain through the workweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 307 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

The calm before the storm the rest of the afternoon and tonight before our weekend's significant winter storm takes hold for the weekend. Not a whole lot to speak of until then with cold and dry conditions presiding. Looking for lows tonight in the upper single digits to low teens across the area, and with some light to steady winds we'll yield minimum wind chill values in the 5 above to 5 below zero range. Cold Weather Advisory looks good as is, so no changes planned with that headline.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

A significant Winter Storm Event is forecast for all of southern Indiana and central Kentucky Saturday through Sunday night. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all counties for substantial amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain (ice) depending on location. Read below for more details or consult the Winter Storm Warning headlines.

What has Changed:

- Ice totals in the .25" to .5" range have become more widespread across southern and eastern Kentucky. It has also moved farther north.

- Snow/sleet totals have dropped a bit where ice totals have gone up just south of the Parkways

- Colder temperatures and wind chills early week with Tuesday morning being the coldest. Coldest wind chills Tuesday morning could range in the -10 to -20F range.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

We start Saturday with expansive Arctic high pressure in place at the surface over much of the eastern CONUS, beneath zonal flow aloft. Western CONUS troughing and some energy off Baja California will begin ejecting eastward during the day, with focus for winter storm development spreading from the southern Plains up into our area as we move into Saturday. We'll be in the single digits to low teens to start the day, and only warm to the teens and low 20s through the afternoon, so we'll be primed to begin accumulating snow from the get go.

As we move through the day, we'll sit under the right entrance region of the upper jet stream while low level jetting responds beneath this feature over our area. As a result of the broad upward vertical motion and deeper moisture transport, the column steadily saturates with light snow beginning across the entire CWA through the day. Intensity is expected to increase through the evening and overnight as a tighter frontogenetical component sets up over the area with the low level jet in full swing beneath the continued favorable upper jet structure. Cross sections cut through the storm show a sloped and deep frontogenetical component with pockets of slightly negative EPV and increasingly more vertical theta surfaces suggesting "less stability" in the mid levels. Looks pretty consistent with what you could call a combination of Weak Symmetric Stability and Conditional Symmetric Instability which will ultimately result in some moderate to heavy snow bands embedded within the larger precipitation shield. We are starting to get into the range of the HREF now, which agrees with the potential for some heavier bands, and shows some decent probabilities for at least 1" per hour rates at times late Saturday afternoon going into Saturday night. HREF probs for this particular rate are usually pretty conservative, so have pretty high confidence based off the cross section analysis, a fully saturated column well through the DGZ, and conceptual models that we'll see periods of 1-2" per hour rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Snow totals will really start to ramp up during this time, however we'll also have to watch the warm nose (850-700 mb layer) starting to work northward across the area.

As we move into later Saturday night and Sunday, the warm nose does begin to affect southern KY and then lift northward toward central KY where p-type will change from snow to sleet, and then likely freezing rain for a good chunk of time. Could even change over to plain rain during the day on Sunday around the Lake Cumberland region if surface temps are able to climb above freezing. For now, still think the best chance for significant ice accumulations will be along and south of a Bowling Green to Lexington, KY line where totals could approach a quarter to a half an inch of ice for most. Some localized three quarter inch amounts can't completely be ruled out, but much will depend on freezing rain rates and how much will be wasted with runoff. Will be increasing amounts a bit with this forecast to account for more coverage of half inch amounts across southern KY. Given the amounts of ice going a bit with more prominence for the warm nose, will also cut into snow/sleet totals a bit across southern and central KY. Still expecting healthy amounts in the 6-10" range, but the higher totals will certainly be north where p-type stays most or all snow.

As we move through Sunday, we'll see a coupled/kissing upper jet structure to our west overspread our area, and as this occurs the favorable upper level divergence should allow for better surface cyclogenesis. This feature is expected to pass just SE of our CWA, but will likely allow for the warm nose to cut in pretty notably across southern and eastern KY as it passes. As a result, the mainly snowy Saturday will give way to a mainly freezing rain/sleet or even briefly rainy Sunday across our southern CWA into eastern KY. Farther north, expect things to stay all snow across southern IN, but some sleet could mix in between the Parkways and the Ohio River corridor. Shouldn't affect overall totals a lot, and still expect most of the freezing rain stays south of the Parkways. Perhaps a glaze to a tenth of an inch up to the I-64 corridor. Will keep at least some in the forecast.

With the surface low pushing east of the area Sunday night, and the upper trough axis beginning to swing through we'll start to crash the temp column again at all levels. As a result, the mixed precipitation from the warm nose on Sunday will change back to all snow for everyone (if they switched). Things will end as one last coating of snow Sunday night as the cold front begins to swing through and we descend into the freezer for temps and wind chills.

Some Additional Thoughts About Headlines/Messaging...

The warm nose continues to be a problematic feature with this storm, as is usually the case. Two camps of data continue with a much colder solution that offers a weaker warm nose on one side, and a much milder overall solution with a very strong warm nose on the other side. Our forecast continues to split the difference, but will also note that the 23/12z RRFS has backed off a bit from the really aggressive warm nose lifting north to the Ohio River, and 23/12z NAM/3km NAM came in a bit farther south and east with the the surface low for Sunday. As a result, perhaps some of the colder solutions are starting to look a bit more favorable, or at least confidence in the ice/snow line is stabilizing a bit. For now, still feel Winter Storm Warning best covers the multiple P-types across southern KY despite a period of predominant freezing rain expected on Sunday. We'll be looking to message the increased impacts from more ice across southern and eastern KY, but overall Winter Storm Warning should still cover this in collaboration with surrounding offices.

Monday - Friday...

Cold and mostly dry conditions look in store for the upcoming week. There does seem to be a decent signal for a Wednesday evening/night clipper swinging through the area that would bring another round of light snow accums to the area under high snow ratios. However, the big story will be the magnitude of the cold temperatures and wind chills early week, followed by the prolonged nature of temperatures below freezing through at least the end of the week. Fully expect some Cold Weather Advisory headlines, and perhaps an Extreme Cold Warning for Monday night Tuesday morning as lows below zero combine with steady winds to create wind chills bottoming out possibly as low -10 to -20 F. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue for this afternoon and evening, with just some upper level clouds streaming across the region. We'll see cigs lower to a mid-level layer by tomorrow morning ahead of an expansive winter storm. Winds will turn from a northerly flow today to a northeasterly component by tomorrow. Snow will begin to spread north through the day on Saturday, and is expected to begin at some terminals before the end of the forecast period. More significant snow is expected for Saturday night into Sunday, but this is outside of the TAF period at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to noon EST /11 AM CST/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to noon EST /11 AM CST/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.