textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty west winds will continue for the remainder of the afternoon. As the sun sets, winds will begin to calm.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday only in the 30s.

* Light rain/snow showers is expected for Saturday night into Sunday, mainly along and east of I-65. On Sunday, light snow showers will persist through Monday. Though accumulation will be very little to a few tenths of an inch.

* Temperatures begin to warm up next week, before we see another chance for showers on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

The LLJ continues to stream over the region this afternoon and will move northeast this evening. Until then, steep lapse rates are allowing winds aloft to bring 30-40mph gusts. As the nocturnal inversion sets up and the LLJ moves northeast of the region, winds will quickly relax. We will see some weak WAA overnight, which will increase dew points a little over southern Kentucky. With the tail end of the LLJ exiting the region and slightly increased moisture, this might be just enough for some sprinkles or drizzle. Though this would be falling out of a mid level deck, with drier air near the surface, so could just be virga. Either way, not expecting any accumulation or just a trace of light rain over southern Kentucky tonight. Low temperatures in the morning will be in the 30s and some cool spots in the upper 20s.

Heights will increase tomorrow ahead of an incoming trough, which will bring temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Saturday. The trough will approach the region late Saturday afternoon, and coupled with better moisture will begin to develop showers over southern Kentucky. PoPs will increase overnight, mainly east of I- 65. Given colder temperatures, will likely see some rain/snow mix over the eastern third of the region. QPF will remain light with this system.

The upper trough will strengthen as it pushes east of the region on Sunday, developing a strong low pressure system over the mid- Atlantic. This strong system will wrap moisture to the northwest and into the Ohio Valley. As the pressure gradient tightens over the region, stronger northwesterly winds will increase on Sunday through Monday. Wind gusts 30-35mph is currently forecasted during this time. Additional moisture, strong fetch off of the Great Lakes, and stronger CAA, may bring some light snow to the Bluegrass and northeastern portions of the area during this time frame. Not expecting much accumulation with this system, but a few tenths of an inch will be possible.

Chilly temperatures are forecasted for Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the 20s. It'll feel quite blustery with cold temperatures and gusty winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

===== Monday Night - Wednesday =====

As the mid-Atlantic system moves northeast of the New England region, we will see the pressure gradient weaken and winds relax. Surface high pressure will move southeast over the region and upper ridging will weaken as it passes overhead. This will lead to a warm up in temperatures through mid week. We will likely see mid 50s for highs by Wednesday. During this time, we will see quiet weather over the region.

===== Wednesday Night - Friday =====

A strengthening trough is projected to move into the northern Plains on Wednesday night and quickly swinging through the Ohio Valley by Thursday Night. A surface low pressure center will likely develop and move north of the region. We will see ridging aloft and a surface LLJ which will allow temperatures and moisture to increase. This will be our next chance for showers and possibly some storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 701 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions likely. BKN mid-level clouds (10-15 kft) will spread north across central KY tonight. Westerly winds will continue to gradually diminish early in this TAF period. Light NW winds expected for Saturday.

Saturday will feature SCT-BKN mid and high clouds early, but expect a steadily lowering ceiling during the afternoon and evening hours. Brief, light precipitation looks possible between 18-00Z, but confidence isn't quite high enough to mention at most terminals at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.