textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday only in the 30s.

* Light rain showers are expected for this afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of I-65. On Sunday, light snow showers will persist through Monday, though little to no accumulation expected.

* Temperatures begin to warm up next week, before we see another chance for showers on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

===== Today =====

Some light radar returns are observed across the area early this morning, though have yet to see any precip make it to the sfc. Higher reflectivity is noted across portions of Tennessee, northern Alabama, southeastern Missouri and far western Kentucky. This early morning precip is being driven by a combination of 850mb convergence, 700mb frontogenesis, and weak warm air advection. Majority of the precip should dissipate through the morning as it runs into drier air to the east, but will carry some light precip chances this morning.

Aloft, we remain under progressive flow, with troughing situated to our northwest across the Plains. Mostly dry weather is expected for this morning, except for the small chance of some sprinkles or very light rain across south-central KY this morning. As this shortwave pivots east toward the Great Lakes today, increasing mid-level vorticity and 700mb FGEN will provide enough support to see some isolated to scattered light rain progress across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Hi-res guidance indicates some light snow potential too, which could be possible if we see some heavier precip rates. However, the better chances for some snow mixing in will be this evening as temps begin to cool with CAA infiltrating in. Sfc temps will be quite mild today, ranging in the 40s for most, though possibly reaching the low 50s in our southeast. Even if we did see some snowflakes by the afternoon hours, it would likely be mixed in with rain and not stick. Additionally, initial onset of precip this afternoon likely will be virga, as we'll have quite a bit of dry air to work through. Top-down saturation will eventually lead to some light precip later. QPF is very light, with only a few hundredths forecast mainly in our east.

===== Sunday =====

On Sunday, the upper trough will significantly deepen over the Ohio Valley, leading to negative height tendencies, and increasing moisture wrapping around the low and into the Ohio Valley. The sfc pressure gradient will be quite strong, which will lead to increasing northwest winds during the day. We'll end up seeing wind gusts at least 25 mph, though gusts in the 30s seem likely. In addition to the winds, we'll have colder temps during the day due to the strong CAA regime in place. The day will start with temps in the 20s, and will struggle to get above freezing for most areas.

With increasing moisture, colder temps, and plenty of forcing due to the upper low overhead, we'll have a chance for some snow showers throughout Sunday. However, currently do not think the entire area will see these precip chances, and the best chances will be due to enhancement from Lake Michigan. This means that areas to our north and east have the best chances, though for our area that could be our I-64 corridor counties and the Bluegrass region. One thing worth watching will be snow squall potential, as model soundings suggest quite steep low level lapse rates during the afternoon, especially for the I-75 corridor and eastward. Additionally, the snow squall parameter indicates some potential in our northeast area, though the best chances for squalls appear to be across northern and eastern KY and southern OH. While little to no snow amounts are currently forecast, any snow squall could put down a quick dusting. Confidence will remain somewhat limited, but should be something to watch. Otherwise, with the gusty northwest winds during the day, and temps around the freezing mark, it will feel quite raw outside on Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

The pressure gradient weakens on Monday as the upper low slides up the East Coast as a nor'easter, though deep NW flow on the back side of the departing upper trough will support strong CAA to continue. After a cold start in the low to mid-20s, temps will struggle to get above freezing during the day. Winds will be lighter, but some considerable cold air will be filtering in to the area. We remain dry as sfc high pressure builds across the central US.

The coldest temps of the long term period will occur Monday night into Tuesday morning, with morning lows consistently forecast to be in the upper teens and low 20s. Sfc high pressure will move across the Midwest during this time and settle across the Gulf states by Tuesday morning. Temps will recover to the low 40s during the day, with continued dry weather expected.

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, low-level jetting will ramp up WAA across the region ahead of another shortwave. While we should start out dry on Wednesday, rain chances will increase later in the day and for Thursday. Temps will be in the 50s for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 619 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this morning, with some light radar returns scattered throughout the area. However, dry air is helping to evaporate any light rain, keeping the terminals mostly dry this morning. Can't rule out some sprinkles, but did not mention in TAFs given the low chance. Better chances for light rain arrive later this afternoon and evening. LEX and RGA will see precip into the evening, where colder temps will be filtering in, and could see some very light -RASN. When precip moves through, brief flight cat restrictions are possible, potentially to MVFR and fuel alternate. However, these impacts will be short-lived, and a return to VFR is expected by tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.