textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread showers and a few storms early this morning. Drying trend across southern Indiana and northern KY later this morning, with lingering pockets of light rain across southern KY through much of the day.

* Well below normal temperatures today with highs only in the low and mid 60s, about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Coldest night of the week will be Thursday night where upper 30s and low 40s are possible.

* High temperatures look to warm back into the 70s this weekend, ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Showers and some strong storms will be possible on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

The exit region of a 120+ kt upper level jet is overspreading the region at this hour, and the resulting low level jet response is peaking. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure has developed along the surface cold front that is bisecting the CWA, and will quickly lift off to the NE toward dawn, steadily pulling the front SE through the rest our area. The low level jet will also work eastward and begin to weaken over the next 3 hours.

Given this setup, coverage of showers and embedded rumbles of thunder have increased over the past few hours, and will likely be most widespread and intense through 09 or 10z. There had been a very thin instability axis that tried to nose into our far SW CWA, but this is now being pinched off as the surface low starts to migrate northeastward. Low level thermal profiles are slightly better across southern KY just ahead of the surface boundary, but still things have remained elevated given enough low level stability. The highest gust has been around 30 mph so far, but will continue to monitor and stronger showers/storms over the next few hours.

We've also been handling the rainfall okay so far as intermittent breaks and overall manageable rates have not caused any problems to this point. Washington county in southern Indiana seems to be the winner so far, with 24 hr MRMS totals around 2 to 2.5 inches. The highest KY Mesonet site in our KY counties so far is Trimble with 1.15" over the last 24 hours.

The surface cold front and low level jet core push east of our CWA after sunrise with a drying trend from NW to SE across our CWA through the morning. Will hang onto some Pops across our SE CWA through the morning, but southern IN and north central KY should be dry. There could be a bit of resurgence and northward trend in light rainfall later this afternoon and evening just south of the western KY and Bluegrass Parkways thanks to increased mid and upper level forcing from the aforementioned impulse working over the area, but confidence isn't real high with that. Otherwise, we trend completely dry across the CWA after Midnight.

Temperatures today will struggle under N winds and heavy cloud cover. Highs are only expected to be in the low and mid 60s which is 10 to 15 degree below normal. Low tonight will also be chilly and mostly in the mid 40s. May have to watch for a fog signal tonight across our northern CWA if we stay cloudy all day, and then clear out late without any chance to mix the BL. Surface high pressure building in would allow for light winds and good radiational cooling with clearing skies. Given the recent widespread rainfall could be a set up for fog. Data isn't really hitting hard, but the pattern has potential.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Thursday - Friday...

Broad troughing continues across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through late week. Meanwhile, high pressure will also be in control of the area as it slides over our area Thursday night, and settles off the mid Atlantic Coast by Friday afternoon. This overall setup will lead to dry and cool conditions. After Thursday highs only in the low and mid 60s (about 10 to 15 degrees below normal), good radiational cooling conditions on Thursday night will allow for chilly temperatures mostly in the 40 to 45 degree range. Can't rule out some cooler mid or upper 30s, especially across the eastern CWA closer to the center of high pressure. NBM probabilities of temperatures less than 37 degrees only sit in the 10-20% range along the I-75 corridor for the moment, but something to watch for some late season frost potential. Highs on Friday do recover a bit, but will still be below normal in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday Evening...

Another shortwave embedded in the parent eastern CONUS trough will slide through our region on Friday night and Saturday morning. This looks to mainly be scattered to numerous shower chances, with perhaps a rumble of thunder. Overall shear profile is pretty decent during this time, however instability looks to be limited to non- existent. If there is any instability, it appears to be elevated so not concerned at this time.

We should be in the subsident wake of the departing shortwave the second part of Saturday, so expect dry conditions here with temperatures recovering to the mid and upper 70s, which is closer to normal for this time of year.

Early Sunday - Sunday Night...

Models are still consistent in bringing another system through early Sunday, and through much of the day. However, fine details are still fairly low confidence given differences in timing/strength/placement of specific features. There will be two distinct shortwaves. One digging across the central Plains and into the mid Mississippi River Valley while the other ejects out of the Rio Grande River Valley and through the Gulf Coast states. For now, it appears phasing occurs to late to affect how the system impacts our region as we should get influence from mainly the northern wave. That being said, we'll have to watch trends because an earlier phase would result in a stronger system, and perhaps more potential for stronger storms. For now, it appears only weak to modest instability will develop across the area, and timing of the cold frontal passage will determine just how much time we have to destabilize Sunday morning. For now, the ECMWF deep layer shear profile looks a bit disjointed between strengthening mid to upper level flow later on Sunday, and an already departing fairly weak low level jet from earlier in the day on Sunday. Too early to focus in on this as timing could change, but right now not overly impressive with everything lining up for strong to severe storms. Potential is there though if we do get things to line up.

Monday - Tuesday...

Surface high pressure builds in behind the cool front and upper trough axis early next week, and we should see a return to dry conditions at least for a brief period. Temps look below normal in the upper 60s and low 70s for this stretch.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

As the cold front exits the region to the southeast, low clouds are slowly push southeast. Some area have cleared, while others remain under IFR and MVFR CIGs. Later this afternoon, light showers will redevelop over southern Kentucky. Tonight, skies will continue to clear. Winds will remain light out of the north. Fog may be possible in the early morning hours, given lighter winds, clearing skies, and recent precip. Not seeing a strong enough signal to include this in all of the TAFs right now, but have mentioned in the RGA TAF. Next TAF issuance may include fog. Tomorrow will be mostly clear and winds will back to the northwest.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.