textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Sub-freezing temperatures expected early Wednesday morning in communities northeast of Lexington with damage to sensitive plants as the main concern.

* Southerly winds Wednesday will quickly warm everyone into the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly clear skies.

* Slight chance (10-20%) for a shower or thunderstorm Friday into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 407 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently, temperatures are ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s across the Ohio River, with warmer mid 50s to low 60s south of the Bluegrass. A band of low to mid level clouds streaming in from the northwest will dissipate by the evening hours. A moderately strong high pressure positioned to our north will drift to our northeast overnight, inducing northeasterly flow at the surface. This will bring in drier cooler air to the area with dewpoints most likely bottoming out in the mid teens to low 20s (>90% chance).

At the same time, some WAA aloft and at mid levels may bring in some high level clouds in the early morning. Combined with very low RH values, frost is not expected in the CWA though some northeastern communities may dip below freezing overnight. Some communities northeast of the Lexington area have a 60 - 80% chance of dipping below freezing by Wednesday morning. As a result, freeze warnings have been issued for our far northeastern counties. The main concern are for sensitive vegetation prone to freezes this early in the growing season.

Beyond the morning hours, winds shift to a southeasterly direction as the same surface high continues to drift towards the northeast. Southeasterly winds will draw in warmer air from our south and boost temperatures warmer into the mid 60s to low 70s. Besides a few clouds from time to time, Wednesday afternoon looks calm and sunny with light winds. Throughout the day on Wednesday, winds will slowly shift to a southwesterly direction as the surface high continues its trek northeast of our CWA. So by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, warm flow may keep low temperatures as high as the mid 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 407 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Thursday, surface high pressure centered along the New England coast will stretch southwest into the Ohio Valley, keeping clear skies overhead and southwest winds in place. Temperatures continue climbing into the 70s with some upper 70s being possible.

By Friday, a surface low gets carried east across the southern Great Lakes region, separating a surface high to the north and the surface high, that had been in place over the Southeast, to the south. This should continue to keep southern Indiana and central Kentucky sunny and dry for most of the day, but as the front drops south to near the Ohio River, low chances of scattered showers with possible embedded thunder arrive for Friday evening/night. We could have around 1.25" of precipitable water along the front. The moisture is there, but instability and overall forcing will be limited. The front will cause winds to be variable across the region.

Saturday, with additional cloud cover and CAA, southern Indiana and north central Kentucky (areas north of the front) are expected to only reach into the low to mid 70s. South of the front, with lots of sunshine and WAA, southern Kentucky could see the low 80s as the front lifts back to the north.

For Sunday night, a return of WAA will lift temperatures back into the low to mid 80 during a mostly sunny day, but ahead of an approaching shortwave, cloud cover with an isolated chance for precipitation is expected to return Sunday evening/night. Precipitation chances begin to look better for widespread rainfall by Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the forecast period. Winds tonight will remain light (generally less than 10 kt), steadily veering from NE to the E/SE by Wednesday morning. We should see SCT- BKN mid- and high-level clouds move across the region later this evening, continuing through the day on Wednesday. During the day on Wednesday, winds should continue to veer toward the south/southeast, with speeds generally around 6-12 kt in the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ037-042- 043. IN...None.