textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with slightly below to near normal temperatures through the end of the week.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall over central and southern Kentucky. 0.75-1.50 inches of rain is expected during this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 927 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Skies were mostly clear across the region this evening, other than for some high level clouds pushing southeast across the region. Temperatures were in the lower-mid 30s in most places, though a hint of a ridge/valley split was starting to show up in the KY Mesonet data. Some of lower elevations and typical radiational cooling spots had already dropped into the upper 20s.

Quiet weather is expected overnight with just some passing high clouds, mainly over our southwestern areas. We'll likely see a ridge/valley split with upper teens/lower 20s in the valleys while we stay in the mid-upper 20s on the ridges. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out in the southern sections of the forecast area overnight.

Current forecast looks pretty good here, will do a quick refresh of some grid elements, and issue updated text products shortly.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley from the west, which has allowed skies to clear except for a few high level cirrus clouds. Winds are light from the northwest and high temperatures today will top out near 50 degrees in the south with cooler low-to- mid 40s in southern IN/northern KY. Dry and calm conditions will persist into the evening and overnight hours with clear skies. This should allow enough radiational cooling for lows to be at or below freezing, especially in northern areas with lows in the low 20s.

Thursday morning, with the cold temperatures, there could be areas of patchy fog to form, noting the small dewpoint depression and calm winds expected before sunrise. Additionally, any remaining patches of isolated melted snowpack could refreeze Thursday morning, urging caution for patchy black ice that could develop.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will move over the area and become nearly stationary, keeping conditions dry with very light winds expected again tomorrow. A northwesterly flow aloft along with moisture transport advected from the southwest US will bring clouds at mid levels to the area but with dry air at lower levels, skies will remain dry. Clouds begin to thin tomorrow evening in time for more radiational cooling to take place late on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

We will remain dry with temperatures around normal for the end of the week. Sfc high pressure builds eastward over the Carolinas as slight ridging develops over the Ohio Valley on Friday ahead of a southern stream system that will eject eastward from the Baja Peninsula over the Four Corners during the day Friday. Sfc winds become more southerly allowing for increased WAA pushing highs into the low/mid 50s across south central KY and mid/upper 40s into the Bluegrass.

By the start of the weekend, the upper trough associated with the southern jet stream will be over the southern Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley. Sfc low will develop over the TX Panhandle as Gulf moisture is drawn northward into the TN and OH Valley. As the sfc low strengthens and moves by to our south PoPs will increase during the day Saturday with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible Saturday night into Sunday. PWAT values increase to around 1.00" to 1.20" over central KY Sunday morning. With this most recent run, QPF values did go back up across the area with rainfall amounts now ranging 0.75" to 1.50" from north to south across the CWA. While hydro concerns remain low, the recent uptick in QPF does increase the need to monitor rivers and the potential for minor flooding due to recent snow melting creating a saturated ground.

Storm system will exit Sunday night into Monday allowing for high pressure and ridging to build in for the first half of next week. Dry and above normal temperatures are expected with highs back into the 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 616 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the upcoming period. Light northwest winds will be seen across the region this evening, eventually becoming light and variable overnight. A thin veil of high clouds will continue to move southeast across the area overnight. Winds will shift to the northeast on Thursday with ceilings dropping to around FL100 by mid-afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.