textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Additional systems bring rain and warmer temperatures today and Wednesday, with steady rain favored in our northernmost counties.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible along a stalled warm front later Wednesday, possibly into Thursday.

* Well above normal temperatures will persist all week, growing increasingly warmer by Thursday/Friday.

* After another fairly strong system on Saturday that could bring more rounds of strong storms, rainfall totals may begin to cause a few minor flood concerns across southern IN.

UPDATE

Issued at 1050 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

The main precipitation shield with moderate to heavy rainfall and embedded thunder continues to push off to the east-northeast associated with the warm front that is now north of the Ohio River and the leading edge of the 850mb LLJ. As the warm front lifts north, we could see a few isolated or scattered showers from the Ohio River northward into southern IN this afternoon, with locations to the south remaining mostly dry. Temperatures across most of the CWA at this time have warmed into the 50s with the exception of Louisville up to Madison, IN. The forecast is still on track for temperatures in the 60s and even low 70s later today, no changes to the forecast are expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current observations reveal mostly cloudy skies across the region this morning. A warm frontal boundary was located over Kentucky and is well depicted in the KY Mesonet data. Quite a temperature gradient was noted across the region with temperatures mainly in the mid-upper 30s across far northern Kentucky with upper 30s/lower 40s mainly along and north of the BG/WK Parkways. Lower-middle 50 degree readings were noted across far southern KY south of the warm front. For the remainder of the overnight period, the warm front will slowly lift northward with temps rising slightly across the south end of the forecast area.

For Today, aforementioned warm frontal boundary will lift northward this morning. As this occurs, a mid-level perturbation will roll eastward out of Missouri bringing a round of showers to southern Indiana and the northern half of the region this morning. QPF of a quarter to one half inch can be expected with this activity. As the front pushes northward of the Ohio River this afternoon, we'll see breezy southwest winds bring milder air into the region. By mid- late afternoon, temperatures should surge into the lower-middle 70s south of the WK/BG Parkways. To the north, temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 60s over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. The warm front will stall north of our region by late day and most areas across southern Indiana and central Kentucky look to remain dry for the afternoon/evening hours.

For tonight, aforementioned warm frontal boundary will stall out across southern IN and into Ohio and will serve as a focus for renewed convective development overnight. For the overnight period, the highest risk of precipitation will be across our southern Indiana counties, with a lesser risk as one heads south of the WK/BG Parkways. Lows will range from the low 50s over southern Indiana with much of Kentucky seeing lows in the mid-upper 50s.

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

Fairly zonal flow aloft will be seen across the CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday. Within this flow, a small perturbation looks to zip through the region early Wednesday. This feature looks to generate a band of mainly elevated convection that will sag east-southeast across southern Indiana and portions of north-central and east- central Kentucky Wednesday morning and into Wednesday afternoon. Areas south of the Cumberland Parkway may miss much of this convection during the day. Given the anticipated convective impacts, we'll likely see a gradient of temperature across the region with mid-upper 60s over southern IN and northern Kentucky with mid-upper 70s over far southern KY.

Wednesday night, we'll be watching a fairly potent shortwave trough axis move from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes states. Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain located just north of the region. To the south of this boundary, a continued influx of moisture advection and theta-e advection will allow the atmosphere to recover to an extent after the morning/early afternoon convection exits to our east. As this shortwave trough axis approaches, we'll see an increase in the low-level flow across the region as the low-level jet starts to become maximized. As this occurs, model soundings do show a steepening of the 700-500 mb lapse rates to the south of the warm front. Scattered convection looks to refire across portions of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and into southern Indiana. Based on sounding profiles, most models show a low-level inversion near the surface suggestive that we would see mainly elevated convection with an attendant large hail risk. Hail risk would be maximized within cells that develop stronger rotating updrafts. The highest risk of severe storms Wednesday night would generally be for areas along and north of the WK/BG Parkways. Current day two risk from SPC has our area in a marginal risk here and we agree.

Moving into Thursday, shortwave trough axis is forecast to be in the upper Midwest and transversing into the southern Great Lakes. Attendant surface front will push into the region Thursday morning yielding a line or band of convection that slowly works southeast through the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty here regarding the speed of the upper level shortwave trough and the possibility of widespread cloud cover that may inhibit surface based instability from developing. Bulk shear values here are in the 25- 35kt range which would support organized convection. However, model soundings are not all that impressive with low-mid level lapse rates. Frontal boundary will probably stall out across the region, and with stronger trough axis pushing into the 4 corner region, upper level height rises down stream will likely allow the front to surge back north into central IN/OH by Thursday night. Highs Thursday look to range from the upper 60s to near 70 over southern IN with temps across KY in the 73-78 degree range. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

As for QPF, we expect rainfall amounts through Thursday night of 2-3 inches across much of southern Indiana with 1-2 inches between the Ohio River and the WK/BG Parkways. To the south of the Parkways, a quarter to one inch will be possible. We could start to see some hydro issues develop across southern Indiana by the late week period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 335 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Friday through Monday...

Moving into the late week period, surface warm front or quasi- stationary front will be draped across IL/IN/OH on Friday with the SE ridge growing in amplitude. A broad southwest flow will develop across the region and with partly sunny skies, temps on Friday are expected to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few showers or storms could develop, but the lack of meaningful synoptic forcing looks to keep things pretty limited. Record high maxima could be broken at SDF/LEX/BWG Friday afternoon. Temps will remain warm Friday night with readings in the lower 60s.

On Saturday, upper trough axis in the lee of the Rockies will eject across the Plains and into the Midwest. As this occurs, a cold front will push into the region from the west during the day. Plentiful southwest flow will keep moisture available for convective development across the region. Model soundings do show some potential for surface based instability. However, 0-6km shear profiles are pretty marginal here with 25-30kts of shear and low-mid level lapse rates look marginal as well. Overall, a conditional risk of strong/severe weather is possible on Saturday.

Surface front looks to get a decent push through the state as a broad zonal flow looks to develop across the CONUS in response to a cutoff low retrograding westward off the Baja. The latest 03/00Z guidance is significantly drier here in the Sunday/Monday period, so I expect to see the blend eventually dry up in future runs. Temps behind the front will not be all that cool, with highs on Sunday mainly in the 60s, recovering up to near 70 by Monday.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Next major weather system looks to impact the region around Wed/Thu (3/11-12) in the form of a strong cold front. Signal analysis from late February has been quite consistent showing a stronger signal passage during this time frame. Will need to watch this time frame for the potential of strong/severe storms ahead of that front. After this front, a regime change looks to occur with a pattern over the CONUS featuring more of a ridge west trough east setup. Signal analysis continues to key in on another signal passage around 3/18 with another one around 3/16.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

A few showers are still ongoing in the eastern parts of the area, specifically over LEX and RGA, with activity ending within the next hour or two. Winds are beginning to pick up over the southwest portions of the area, with gusty conditions possible through sunset. Rain showers are possible again with another disturbance passing over the area tonight through tomorrow. SDF and HNB could see showers after midnight, with LEX beginning after 9z. VFR ceilings will persist early in the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings possible as the rain showers fill in.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.