textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds will be the main threat. An isolated tornado spin-up can not be ruled out.

* Cooler and quieter weather expected Thursday through Saturday.

* Another chance for rain, and possibly storms, returns by late this weekend before temperatures turn sharply colder early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Mid-afternoon observations show mostly cloudy skies across much of central and western Kentucky as well as southern Indiana. Some partly sunny skies were noted across far eastern Kentucky. Earlier diurnal heating pushed temperatures into the mid-upper 70s earlier. However, the cloud cover moving in has dropped temps across western KY into the lower 70s with mid 70s in the I-65 corridor over to the I-75 corridor. Area radars are mostly quiet over our area with a batch of storms moving along to the north of the CWA and another just to our south.

Overall environment is marginally supportive of strong/severe convection. While the atmosphere has recovered some from the earlier convection, ongoing cloud cover across the region will likely limit further destabilization through the afternoon. Nonetheless, convection has fired along the cold front to our northwest. Combination of poor lapse rates aloft and the limited heating is only producing about 500-800 J/Kg of MLCAPE. Despite the weak instability, low-level shear remains plentiful across the region with 55-60kts available. Convection across southern IL and SW IN looked pretty good earlier, but as it has moved east, the convection has really taken a downturn in intensity, likely to limited instability. Current thinking is that best chances of strong convection with that line would be across central IN just northeast of CWA.

Further south, a line of convection has developed from Bowling Green southwest through western-middle TN. This activity will move east and has some better instability to work with. Earlier guidance has been insistent on developing this line further north and east this afternoon, up into portions of south-central Kentucky over into the Lake Cumberland area. In the Lake Cumberland area, the warm sector here hasn't been touched and is most primed for strong/severe weather.

For the remainder of the afternoon hours, ongoing convective line across SE IL and SW IN should continue to move southeast through southern Indiana and into north-central Kentucky. Model soundings show mainly a uni-directional wind profile which would really limit the tornado threat. Overall, the main threats with this line would be heavy rainfall and perhaps some wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Once the cold front slips through this area, the threat of severe will end from NW to SE. Outside of the storms, gradient winds will remain elevated with wind gusts of 40-45 mph, though the wind gusts will likely come down a bit due to the ongoing cloud cover capping instability/mixing.

Down south, expect convection to build northeastward with time with a band of showers/storms moving along/south of the Cumberland Parkway region. Here heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected. Some wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible as this line pushes through.

Convection should largely depart our CWA by 10-11 PM EDT tonight. Behind the front, can't rule out some light rain showers continuing for a few hours. Breezy northwest winds will usher in colder temperatures. Lows look to fall into the middle 30s by sunrise Thursday. For Thursday, we'll be well within the post-frontal airmass with the upper level trough axis swinging east of the region. Broad area of subsidence will move into the region allowing skies to clear out. Highs on the day will be in the low-mid 50s. Lows Thursday night will dip into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 346 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday through Saturday...

An upper shortwave and a compact surface low will move over the Great Lakes region on Friday, with its cold front just missing the CWA to the north. A few mid-level clouds are expected as the system passes by, and a tightened pressure gradient should allow for gusty conditions Friday afternoon. Sustained winds will be around 20-25 mph out of the SW, with gusts ranging from 30-40 mph. The upper pattern on Saturday will become more zonal as sfc high pressure fills in over the Ohio Valley. Quiet weather is expected, with mostly sunny skies and calm E/SE winds.

Sunday into Early Next Week...

The next round of impactful weather comes during the latter half of the weekend as the northern jet stream digs southward and becomes an amplified upper trough over the Plains by late Sunday. A sfc low develops over the central Plains and deepens during the day on Sunday, moving towards the Midwest by Sunday evening. Current ensemble guidance has the low deepening down to or below 990 mb by Sunday evening as it starts to cross over the Greet Lakes. Another strong sfc pressure gradient will allow for gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening across the CWA, especially for northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible before the cold front passes through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, with the potential for a few storms to be strong or severe. With strong southerly flow carrying moisture towards the CWA, as well as ample wind shear from the amplified trough, the ingredients will be present for convection to develop. AI/ML severe guidance signals still remain for Sunday, though the lack of agreement as to how much destabilization occurs makes the severe outlook uncertain.

Very cold air fills in following the frontal passage late Sunday night, with precipitation changing over from rain to snow early Monday morning. Temperatures will plummet into the low 30s Monday morning, only rising into the upper 30s by the afternoon, with overall conditions being calm. Tuesday morning lows will be even colder, with most places dropping into the upper teens. Afternoon highs will be similar to that of Monday, with conditions being similar as well. Guidance is picking up on a clipper system moving over the region on Wednesday, though the overall timing is still uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

More rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact area terminals before a cold front passes through the region this evening, diminishing precipitation chances after 00z. Conditions will be generally be VFR through this evening, though heavier rain showers and thunderstorms could briefly reduce visibilities and ceilings. MVFR stratus will fill in behind the cold front as it passes through tonight, with winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest. Wind speeds will also decrease throughout the night, dropping to around 8-10 kt around 12z. Flight categories will return to VFR across all TAF sites after 12z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057. IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.