textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow.

* Isolated to scattered shower chance arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. The better chance of storms will be Thursday afternoon/evening. At this time, the risk of severe weather is low.

* Temperatures gradually warm up late week and into the weekend, with highs approaching 90F by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations reveal mostly sunny conditions across the region. Temperatures range from the upper 70s in the Bluegrass to the lower-middle 80s out in the I-165 corridor. For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. Highs will top out in the upper 70s/lower 80s in the next hour or so and then cool into the 70s this evening. Dry weather is expected overnight. A weak trough axis will bring some convection to eastern MO and western IL and this will drop into western KY late in the overnight period. Locally we expect to remain dry, but with perhaps a bit more high cloud cover moving in late. We'll likely see another ridge/valley split set up with lows in the mid-upper 50s in the valleys with upper 50s to around 60 on the ridges.

For Wednesday, dry weather will continue across the region though we'll have a bit more southerly flow as high pressure moves off to the east. Have gone closer to the HREF for highs with readings in the middle 80s in the Bluegrass region with mid-upper 80s in the I- 65 corridor and points west. By Wednesday night, a cold frontal boundary will drop in from the northwest. Some scattered showers and storms will likely accompany that boundary and may yield some precipitation for our southern Indiana counties. Some backbuilding may occur later in the night with convection likely affecting far western KY and perhaps into our southwest counties late in the evening. Model proximity soundings show some instability, but weak shear and weak lapse rates. The severe threat here remains quite low at this time. Lows will range from the mid-upper 60s to around 70.

For Thursday, morning convection is expected to push off to the southeast during the day. In the wake of convection, we should see some partial clearing which will allow temps to warm back up into the mid-upper 80s for highs. Another band of convection may develop along the Ohio River by late afternoon/evening and push southeast across the forecast area during the evening hours. The convective evolution of this line remains a bit uncertain as it is uncertain how much diurnal heating we'll see during the day. However, model soundings show rather marginal shear values and very marginal lapse rates. Instability should be sufficient enough for some convection with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning being the main threats. Late in the evening, we'll see cool advection build across the region with lows dropping into the upper 50s/lower 60s across southern IN and into the mid 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

As the cold front departs off to the south and east, surface ridging will fill in over the Ohio Valley, setting up another stretch of dry weather across the region. A few isolated showers and storms are possible (< 20% chance) in far southern Kentucky Friday afternoon, but for most of the area conditions will be dry. Looking broadly at the mid and upper-level pattern, the upper trough that has lingered over the eastern CONUS will slowly push off to the east, while the upper trough over the western CONUS flattens out some and spreads towards our region. This pattern change will take place through the rest of the long term forecast period, with our region remaining under a flattened ridging setup through Tuesday afternoon.

The main thing to look out for during this period will the the slow rise in temperatures, with a culminating return to conditions in the 90s. Along with this pattern shift will be persistent southerly flow at the lower levels, allowing warmer air to fill back in over the region. Per the latest LREF, chances for temperatures at or above 90 will increase each passing day, with less than 25% probabilities Friday afternoon climbing to above 70% Sunday afternoon and peaking with greater than 75% chances for Monday. Tuesday still has elevated chances (> 65%), so there is increasing likelihood in a stretch of hotter conditions. One positive is that fairly dry air will remain in place until the latter portions of the forecast period, keeping dew points in the 60s. This will limit heat indices some, with LREF outputting near-zero chances of values at or above 100 through Monday, and less than 35% chances on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

As high pressure slowly shifts east, VFR conditions should be predominant throughout the forecast period, with light winds overnight becoming predominantly southwesterly 5-8 kt around 15z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.