textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather is expected over the next week. With most of the region experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions already, many counties have burn bans in place at this time. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

UPDATE

Issued at 920 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with convective activity displaced well to our west. Still can't completely rule out an isolated shower or storm across the SW CWA through the overnight where PWATs are higher and some lingering instability resides.

Outside of that, the only other area of focus will be whether we see some patchy fog tonight across our southern CWA, and especially SW CWA where dew points are higher and will mix with good radiational cooling conditions. Something to watch overnight outside of an otherwise quiet evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows partly to mostly sunny skies across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. We still have a residual Cu field across portions of the region. A few showers/storms were located southeast of Bowling Green and moving southward. Temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 80s across the area. The exception has been in the I-65 corridor of central Kentucky where lingering cloud cover has delayed diurnal heating. Here temperatures were in the upper 70s.

For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. An isolated shower/storm will be possible over far southern KY associated with convective outflow from this morning's convection. Elsewhere, the diurnal Cu field will diminish toward sunset. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 80s (84-89) across much of the region. The exception will again be down in the I-65 corridor from E-town south toward Bowling Green where afternoon highs will only warm into the lower to middle 80s.

For tonight, skies should start off mostly clear with evening temps in the upper 70s to the lower-mid 80s. Overnight, there is a risk of some additional shower/storm development over the far western portions of the forecast area (mainly west of the I-165 corridor) along a weak surface boundary. This area is coincident with a higher PWAT axis. For now, plan on covering things with a silent PoP (<13%). However, will let the evening shift take a look at the late afternoon data to see if some slight/isolated PoPs would be needed in the evening update. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s.

For Monday and Monday night, omega pattern aloft will shift a bit as a Rex block develops over the eastern US. The Ohio Valley will be under the ridge here which should result in dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Highs Monday afternoon look to top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Overnight lows look to cool into the lower-middle 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Tuesday through Thursday Night...

For this period, the upper level pattern will feature a Rex block pattern across the east with the Ohio Valley within the upper ridge part of the block. Off the southeast across Mid-Atlantic, a closed upper level low will be seen with a surface low pressure center spinning along the NC/VA border region. This upper low and surface low are likely to move up the coast as the Rex block breaks down. Latest guidance continues to keep much of the moisture with this surface low off to our east through the period, so dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Across most of the region, we'll see a negative feedback loop here with the continued dry and warm temperatures resulting in a continued dry out of surface fuels. This could result in an elevated fire weather risk across the region. The ongoing dryness has already led to burn bans in several counties of southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

Friday through Sunday...

By late week, a fairly strong upper trough will work eastward across the high Plains and into the Midwest by the weekend. Depending on the speed of the trough axis, some scattered showers/storms could develop across western portions of the forecast area as early as Thursday. However, the latest data continues to hold off better precip chances until Friday. As the upper trough moves into the Midwest/Great Lakes, it will drive a surface boundary into the region. Given the upper level flow pattern, we're not likely to have a good fetch of Gulf moisture into the region ahead of this system, so rainfall amounts could end up rather scant. Though, better forcing looks likely by Sunday which could yield a more widespread shower/storm chance.

Depending on how widespread rain/clouds are on Friday will determine afternoon highs. For now, consensus model guidance suggests highs in the mid-upper 80s. With expected clouds and possible precip on Sat/Sun, daytime highs look to only top out in the lower 80s.

Beyond Sunday...

Looking deeper into the extended period, high latitude blocking aloft is expected redevelop across Canada once again. South of the block, another omega pattern may develop across the CONUS though it may centered a bit more to the west. The multi-model consensus suggests that much of the east (east of the Mississippi) will likely remain in a broad trough axis yielding higher than normal precipitation chances. Given the dry spell, we could certainly use whatever rain we can get from this pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Things are quiet across the region at this hour, and expecting that to continue through this TAF cycle. Surface winds will go calm or very light and generally out of the E tonight, along with mostly clear skies. Could have some brief vis restrictions at BWG, but no confident enough to go with more than a TEMPO 6 SM mention for now. Otherwise, look for light to steady ESE to SE winds on Monday with only a few VFR clouds to note.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.