textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm days, cool nights, and dry weather continues through Friday. Patchy morning fog (especially in river valleys) will continue, with the exception of Wednesday morning.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until this weekend, with the highest confidence in rain (60-70%) occurring late Saturday night and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Tonight through Friday Night...

Skies are partly sunny this afternoon, with thin high clouds beginning to increase in coverage from the west. A mid-level shortwave trough over Missouri will lift northeast across Illinois tonight, bringing us a period of mostly cloudy conditions this evening and tonight. These clouds will exit off to the east Wednesday morning, allowing for a mostly sunny Wednesday.

Overnight temperatures will remain a bit milder than recent nights due to the increased cloud cover, which will also limit fog formation. Temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Wednesday starts off with strong sfc high pressure centered over New England. The high shifts southeast out over the Atlantic, and light southerly flow develops across the Ohio Valley. Expect a warm, pleasant Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Weak shortwave ridging develops aloft to finish out the work week. High pressure at the surface remains in control across much of the Mid-South and Mid-Atlantic, though a deepening low pressure system over Canada will attempt to drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley. However, this moisture-starved boundary eventually stalls out. Thursday and Friday will remain dry and pleasant, with morning lows in the 40s to around 50 and afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s.

Saturday through Monday Night...

Expect a dry, but cloudier start to Halloween. Clouds will increase heading into the weekend ahead of upper level energy associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance (E. Pacific). We'll see steady southwesterly moisture advection Saturday into Sunday as the upper level wave lifts northeast over the Mid-MS Valley. LREF mean PW values are forecast to creep above 1.25 inches by Sunday morning. Some modest timing differences linger amongst LREF members and deterministic global model guidance. At this time, we have medium- high confidence (70-80%) in mainly dry conditions through sunset on Halloween. However, the chance for light rain does gradually increase Saturday evening and especially overnight. The bulk of the light rain is expected Saturday night and Sunday. As for amounts, LREF median QPF currently suggests 0.25-0.50 inches of rainfall is possible through the end of the weekend.

Beyond Sunday, confidence in the details is much lower. However, a generally active, wetter pattern is expected during the early to middle portion of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through this TAF period. Fog is less likely overnight due to increased cloud cover. A period of BKN high clouds is expected this evening and overnight, with clouds clearing off to the east through the early to mid-morning hours on Wednesday. Winds will remain light and variable to calm through the overnight hours. Prevailing SW flow develops after 14-15Z Wednesday with winds increasing modestly to around 5-6 kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.