textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold front sweeps through the region early this morning, leading to cooler temperatures and gusty west winds today. Widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected, with isolated gusts over 40 mph possible.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday only in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Early this morning, a broken line of showers and elevated storms are moving east of I-65, which are feeding off the last bit of lingering MLCAPE, though there remains plenty of shear given a 50kts LLJ just ahead of the approaching cold front. Despite the nocturnal inversion, these showers and storms have been able to bring down some stronger winds to the sfc, though severe potential is just about over at this point. Precip chances will continue through about 4AM EST in our east, but drier conditions are settling in as a cold front enters from the west.

The cold front will sweep through the entire area before sunrise, bringing much drier and cooler air to the area. A tight sfc pressure gradient combined with a secondary, post-frontal LLJ mixing down due to steepening low level lapse rates will result in gusty sfc winds for majority of the day. Widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected, and isolated gusts over 40 mph will be possible. Best chances for those higher wind gusts will be north of I-64, where the pressure gradient will be more intense due to closer proximity to the deepening sfc low over the Great Lakes.

With the cold front passing through this morning, and strong CAA taking over, our temps will fall through the morning hours, with a slight recovery this afternoon. However, the daily high temps for today will be early this morning, with temps in the 60s still before the cold front arrives. Temps will fall into the 40s later this morning before rebounding into the low to mid-50s this afternoon. We'll also see generally mostly sunny conditions after FROPA, but perhaps some strato-cu developing in the CAA pattern later today.

For tonight, a few light showers will attempt to creep into southern KY from the south, driven by mid-level forcing well ahead of another weak shortwave. Chances remain quite low, and perhaps well overdone by the NBM, given that model soundings show quite a bit of dry air and only a mid-level cloud deck at most. Will trim back PoPs quite a bit, as currently think there's more working against the shower chances than for them.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

===== Saturday - Sunday =====

Generally drier weather is expected during the day on Saturday as we'll be located between a sfc low moving across the Gulf Coast, and a weak shortwave pivoting across the Ohio Valley. During the daytime hours, we'll lack any substantial moisture over our area, with the best moisture advection and low level convergence taking place across the south in proximity to the sfc low. By Saturday evening, some low end rain chances will be possible as slightly deeper moisture content moves across the Ohio Valley. While PoPs are less than 20%, these chances are highest east of I-65 for Saturday night. Not very confident with this time frame as considerable model discrepancy remains, but regardless the QPF will be rather light.

Stronger CAA pattern will filter in as the trough slides east Sunday morning, leading to temps to drop into the mid to upper-20s during the morning. While chances remain low, the colder air could catch up to the departing precip and result in a brief period of rain-snow mix, but confidence in this also remains low. Sunday will remain cold, with highs expected to only reach the mid to upper-30s by the afternoon. Dry but somewhat breezy conditions are expected, though could see some lake effect snow off Lake Michigan precipitate across portions of eastern Indiana and Ohio, and could clip the northern and eastern Kentucky areas, including our northeast forecast area. No snow accumulations are forecast.

===== Next Week =====

Dry weather continues for the first part of next week, with higher confidence in dry conditions thanks to sfc high pressure building across the region. Cooler than normal temps are expected again on Monday, with highs once again remaining in the 30s. The coldest temps of the period are forecast for Monday night into Tuesday morning, where we could see temps dip into the upper teens as lighter winds and clearer skycover help boost radiational cooling. Despite the cold start on Tuesday, we should see temps recover to the low 40s during the day as our pattern takes on a WAA regime.

Dry weather continues to Tuesday and Wednesday, though our next precip chances will be on the horizon by then. WAA increases on Wednesday as a LLJ strengthens over the Midwest ahead of our next shortwave, which will lead to temps returning to the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Look for increasing coverage of rain throughout Wednesday, with chances peaking Wednesday night as a cold front sags south through the Ohio Valley and approaches the Ohio River. Additional chances for rain will linger through Thursday as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 645 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this morning, with upper level clouds departing to the east. Main impact for today will be the gusty westerly winds, with gusts exceeding 22kts expected this morning and afternoon. Those winds will eventually relax by this evening, with VFR continuing tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.