textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning and gusty winds.

* Fog may form by morning (20-40% chance) in areas that receive rain today.

* Storms return tomorrow afternoon, with better coverage over central KY continuing the same threats from todays storms. Highs remain in the mid 80s.

* Seasonable temperatures (mid-upper 80s) and daily chances (20-40%) for afternoon-evening thunderstorms are forecast throughout the upcoming work week. The risk for severe weather appears low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the rest of this afternoon and evening, an axis of thunderstorms that formed from areas of clear skies this morning will continue drifting slowly towards the southeast. These storms will dissipate with nocturnal cooling later tonight. Ahead of this axis of storms, more scattered convection may fire off though not everyone will see rain today. With weak upper level support, these storms pose more of an isolated flash flooding risk along with general frequent lightning and gusty winds. Repeated rounds of storms has already produced 1+" totals within an hour or so, meaning the isolated flash flood risk will continue through the evening. PWATs remain high near 1.9" and with weak flow aloft, these storms will be slow movers. Isolated spots could see 2-4" or more, though this depends on if storms can keep training over the same areas. Generally these storms consume the instability around them and cause future storms to track over different areas, or weaken. Most places should see under an inch with storms by this evening. Eventually, storms will end and light to calm winds will prevail overnight. Cloud cover will limit how fast we can cool but patchy fog is possible (20-40%), especially within our river valleys and general low lying areas by early morning.

By morning, temperatures will range in the upper 60s and low 70s. Any morning fog will mix away slowly as the sun tries to heat the area through mixed cloud cover. Temperatures still rebound into the mid 80s just in time for additional storms to refire in the afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will linger over northern KY, bringing another focused axis of storms that will slowly move southeast once again. Scattered storms will linger with high humidity although behind the weak frontal boundary over southern Indiana, storms will be more sparse in coverage. With continued weak flow and modest CAPE, the main threat for tomorrow's storms are flash flooding, followed by lightning and gusty winds. Storms once again wane with nocturnal cooling with winds becoming calm overnight. Patchy fog will again be possible in areas that will receive rain and in the low river valleys overnight Tuesday.

By Wednesday morning, the low at mid levels keeping our weather so unsettled will be cut off from the overall flow, slowly moving off to the east overtime. Weak southwesterly flow at lower levels will reinforce humid conditions and afternoon storms return. Only difference is there isn't much lift to initiate storms besides afternoon heating or preexisting storms outside the CWA, so storm coverage should be much less Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 80s once again and cooling off into the upper 60s and low 70s as well.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

By Thursday morning the OH Valley will remain on the northern periphery of the subtropical high centered over FL, with continued moist air being advected into the region from the SW. Summer heat will remain with highs expected in the upper 80s to right around 90 for some urban locations, with dew points uncomfortably in the mid 70s. Model soundings show abundant instability but little shear, so expect diurnally driven pulse storms to generate in the afternoon into evening hours.

A cold front will begin dropping south from the Great Lakes on Friday, bringing increased rain and storm chances to the OH Valley region through the weekend. With warm air in place, there will be no shortage of instability with CAPE values 2500 - 3000 J/kg. Shear continues to be lacking overall, though GFS does show pockets of 40kt bulk shear values propagating through the zonal pattern, mostly associated with a LLJ forming Friday night, as the cold front drops southward toward the OH River. With abundant moisture in place, evident by PWATs ranging from 1.8 to 2.1 inches with higher amounts pooling just ahead of the frontal boundary, expect to see heavy rain at times. By Sunday, the weak surface low will begin to move off to our east but still expect scattered rain and storms chances. Unfortunately, a well modified airmass behind the front will do little to abate the summer warmth. Highs Friday through Monday will continue to top out in the upper 80s with dew points in the 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A few scattered rain showers are currently moving through the area, but most sites can expect showers to clear out within the next couple hours. Overnight, in combination with todays precip and light winds, patchy fog is expected across the area. Sites will likely stay MVFR, however there is a small chance for LEX and RGA to drop to IFR vis briefly. Once the fog clears tomorrow morning, VFR conditions return with light winds out of the NNW. Precip chances will return tomorrow late afternoon into the evening with more isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence in precip timing for tomorrow with the isolated nature of showers.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.