textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered drizzle possible until a cold front arrives tonight.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* Another system arrives during the weekend, providing additional precipitation chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 858 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

It's a dreary night across the region, with pockets of drizzle or very light rain observed from KLVX. KY Mesonet obs across the region show sfc temps in the upper 50s, though this will change in the coming 12-24 hours. The first of two cold fronts is currently passing through the forecast area this evening, but it will be the second cold front that brings a reinforcing shot of cold air and gusty west winds. That front is currently near STL, and is expected to arrive in our area by 06z tonight as it plows east quickly. We should be post-frontal by 12z tomorrow morning, which will bring an end to the light precip. Gusty west winds follow in the wake of the front for tomorrow, and bring a stronger CAA pattern to the Ohio Valley. Temps over the next 24 hours are expected to drop, with the high temps for Wed potentially occurring at or near midnight tonight. Temps crash into the low 40s by the afternoon, and upper 30s by tomorrow evening. Overall forecast remains in good shape, but did blend in 00z hi-res guidance and adjusted PoPs to add mention of drizzle to the forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 404 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently, the majority of the moisture and rain has moved off to the east. PWATs remain around 0.75" with dew points in the mid to upper 50s. Soundings show low level moisture under the DGZ, keeping drizzle across the area. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front that is nearing the Ozarks.

Tonight, scattered pockets of drizzle will remain ahead of the north to south oriented front that begins entering the western side of the CWA around 6z and makes it through the eastern side around 12z. Winds behind the front will veer from the southwest to the west as they gust to between 25-30 mph. There will be a quick clearing of skies, and temperatures and dew points quickly begin falling. Lows will fall into the mid 30s to mid-upper 40s.

Tomorrow, as the system's stacked low passes over the Great Lakes, low level cloud cover will quickly return and slide east over the northern two thirds of the CWA. Surface high pressure, centered over the southern Plains, expands eastward, pushing into the Lower Ohio Valley. This will generate a strong pressure gradient against the low to the north, resulting in west winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 404 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving and Friday, appear to be the nicest days of the week, if you don't mind cooler temperatures. Surface high pressure under upper riding will clear skies, but with the center of the high not passing the CWA until Friday night, winds veering towards the northwest will advect cooler temperatures into the area. Highs on Thanksgiving in the upper 30s to mid 40s will only make it to the mid 30s and low 40s on Friday. Lows Thursday and Friday night will likely range from the upper teens to mid 20s. The passing surface high on Friday should allow winds to ease, allowing for strong radiative cooling. This could lead to some pretty cool spots by Saturday morning.

Saturday, a shortwave will dive south over the Rockies and strengthen an upper trough before lifting a surface low from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes Saturday night.

Ahead of the front during they day Saturday, warm air advection will lift temperatures into the 40s before a trailing cold front from the surface low arrives in the CWA early Sunday. Currently, this looks to provide the Lower Ohio Valley with its next round of rain. Model agreement is a lot better than it was yesterday, and a shift in the system could produce some frozen precipitation. Current data supports all rain, but with precipitation ending on Sunday, temperatures will likely fall below freezing Sunday night with surface high pressure and clearing skies behind the front. The current forecast likely keeps rain chances too high into early next week. Expecting a break before additional precipitation chances return out of the south early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 705 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Low cigs will continue to impact the terminals tonight, with MVFR flight cats expected for most of the morning. We'll see isolated to scattered light rain and drizzle, but coverage should be spread out enough to keep the TAFs dry tonight. We'll likely see cigs bounce up to VFR and back to down to MVFR as the secondary cold front sweeps through the area. However, this will ultimately shut off the light precip in our area tomorrow morning. Cigs improve throughout much of tomorrow, with all terminals expected to return to VFR before the end of the forecast period. Winds will be gusty again tomorrow, with west winds gusting up to 30kts possible.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.