textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and less humid conditions are expected from this afternoon through Friday.

* Showers and thunderstorms will return late Friday and through the day on Saturday. Some strong/severe storms are possible on Saturday along with heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues in spots.

* More scattered shower/storm activity possible early next week, but mainly confined to afternoon/evenings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Afternoon satellite and observations show mostly sunny skies across the region with a diurnal Cu field in full swing. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to around 80 in the Bluegrass to the low- mid 80s across southern KY. A bit of haze was noted across the region due to wildfire smoke aloft. For the remainder of the afternoon hours, no significant weather is expected. We expect temperatures to fall off into the upper 70s this evening.

For the overnight period, mostly clear skies are expected. Continued northeasterly flow will push the smoke plume aloft to our southeast while drier air continues to push in from the northeast. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s over the much of the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky, with lower 60s along the I-65 corridor and points west.

For Thursday, dry weather is expected to continue across the region with a northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure moving through the region. We'll see noticeably lower humidity values with afternoon highs warming into the 82-87 degree range. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 50s in the Bluegrass region with lower 60s elsewhere.

For Friday, upper level ridge axis that has been to our west will gradually shift eastward over the Ohio Valley. This will result in continued dry weather with highs warming into the 83-88 degree range. By Friday night, an upper level trough axis over the Midwest is expected to drop southeast and deepen into a closed low as it approaches the Ohio Valley. This feature will bring a period of showers and a few thunderstorms to the region Friday night, likely toward or after midnight. Severe weather risk for Friday night remains quite low. However, locally heavy rainfall can be expected with this activity.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Saturday through Wednesday...

Moving into the weekend, the pattern aloft will become more amplified as a shortwave trough axis drops southeast from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and may attempt to close off. Associated with this upper level wave, a surface wave of low pressure will advance toward the region in tandem with the upper wave.

Ahead of this wave, a cluster of showers/storms looks likely for late Friday night and Saturday morning within a warm advection/nocturnal low-level jet regime. Many questions remain on the longevity of this morning convection and its potential to limit instability/diurnal heating Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. In places that heating does occur, dewpoints will be in the low-mid 70s which will be ample for convection. Model proximity soundings show relatively weak shear across the region during the day with values of less than 30 knots. However, there remains an emerging signal that some low-level wind enhancement could develop over our region Saturday afternoon and evening. Should this higher shear come to fruition, along with more robust heating, a risk of severe weather will be on the table. Based on model soundings, damaging winds would be the primary hazard, though isolated tornadoes could also occur. Additionally, a fairly high surge of moisture will be drawn up into the Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching front. Model soundings show PWATs increasing to over 2 inches across the area. So heavy/torrential rainfall will likely accompany any thunderstorms and flash flooding will also be a threat.

By Sunday, the upper trough will likely lag behind across the Ohio Valley while the surface low and cold front push on off to the east. Some lingering shower activity seems rather likely here along with plentiful cloud cover which will keep temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Moving into the new work week, stronger flow in the westerlies will retreat back to the north along the US/Canadian border while more persistent ridging will hold sway over the western US. Across the eastern US, the latest data suggests that a baggy trough axis will remain in place from southern New England back down into the SE US. Under this scenario, it seems that showery weather may continue through about midweek, with showers/storms focused mainly in the afternoon/evenings. Daytime highs will be near normal with mid- upper 80s for highs and overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue across the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build into the region from the northwest. While VFR vsbys are expected across the region, we'll see some some MVFR cigs for a time this afternoon. Expect cigs to improve this evening with clear skies and light winds overnight. VFR conditions are expected to continue on Thursday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.