textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Additional systems bring rain and warmer temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, with steady rain favored in our northernmost counties.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible along a stalled warm front later Wednesday, possibly into Thursday.

* Well above normal temperatures will persist all week, growing increasingly warmer by Thursday/Friday.

* After another fairly strong system on Saturday that could bring more rounds of strong storms, rainfall totals may begin to cause a few minor flood concerns across southern IN.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tonight - Wednesday...

Widespread light rain will start to diminish in coverage later this afternoon and evening with a weakening of the low level jet, however we'll keep scattered coverage around into the overnight. Later tonight, the low level jet gets a resurgence as another mid to upper level impulse noses into the region. As a result, a warm front will lift north across the CWA. This northward shift of the warm front will take most of the coverage of showers across our far N CWA with the southern two-thirds mostly dry until around dawn. From there, another round of showers should move across our CWA, mostly the northern half, Tuesday morning. Most places should expect an additional .25" to .33" of QPF with the Tuesday morning round, with a few spots likely seeing closer to a half an inch. Farther south, southern KY can expect a few hundredths or completely dry. The warm front lifting north does begin our well-anticipated pattern of a much milder and prolonged stretch of weather, and Tuesday will already see a range of low to mid 60s temps across our north, and low to mid 70s across southern KY.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall and waver along and just to the north of our CWA through mid week, with most of the scattered shower activity riding along or near this boundary. This will gradient sharp N-S gradients in temperature, pops, and QPF amounts as southern KY will be much more likely to stay milder/mostly dry during that stretch. For instance, Wednesday highs will feature mostly 70s. About a 10 degree spread from southern KY in the upper 70s, and southern IN in the upper 60s to near 70. We'll go with likely pops across our north, to isolated or dry coverage across southern KY.

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

We'll have to keep an eye on the later Wednesday night into Thursday time frame as a shortwave ejects out of the central Plains, and an associated surface low tracks from the mid Mississippi River Valley up toward the lower Great Lakes region. A warm front will be draped just to our north, with SE CONUS ridging helping us become mild and modestly unstable. The overall shear profile improves from late Wednesday night into Thursday as low level jetting ramps up beneath modest mid level flow. Wouldn't be surprised to see the current Day 3 Severe Outlook for late Wednesday night, extend into Thursday for our area as the shortwave trough ejects through the region with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Early on in this wave, it looks like storms will be elevated with mainly a hail threat late Wednesday into Thursday morning, however there is a chances that some surface based instability could develop across our area later into Thursday, especially if the shortwave timing is a bit later. Could see another severe threat develop through the day. Rainfall totals could begin to add up a bit across southern KY by Thursday as well, so may have to start watching for some minor hydro issues across our northern CWA by then.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

----Thursday Night - Monday ----

Showers and storms are possible Thursday night as the shortwave over the Ohio valley retreats to the northeast. Meanwhile, a robust upper- level trough will park over the Southwest CONUS, shifting the wind flow at the low and upper levels from SW to NE over the Ohio Valley. Considerable WAA will allow for well-above average temperatures in the 70s leading into the weekend, with some places getting above 80. A few showers are possible late Friday, though our next system of note will pass over the region Saturday.

A surface low pressure system develops upstream of the upper-level trough on Friday over the Great Plains, deepening as it shifts northeast towards our region on Saturday. Temperatures will again get into the 70s on Saturday, and with persistent SW flow aloft dew points will get into the 60s. Added instability and forcing near the frontal boundary of the surface low should aid in the development of showers and storms Saturday PM-Saturday night, though uncertainty remains on the potential for severe weather.

The front from the surface low stalls over Kentucky by Sunday afternoon, remaining over the state through the end of the long-term forecast period. Several shortwaves will ride the boundary late Sunday-Monday, along with southerly/southwesterly flow carrying moisture from the Gulf, allowing for persistent showers to take place. Temperatures will get into the 70s Sunday and Monday, though dew points in the 60s both days will make for rather muggy conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mixed precipitation has ended across the area, however light rain continues through the afternoon and becomes more showery this evening. IFR ceilings have set in, or will soon set in at HNB/LEX/SDF, and with slightly less confidence for RGA. Surface winds swing around to a more light S component tonight as a warm front lifts over the area, and could see a period of LLWS at all sites except HNB as a 37-42 knot SW-NE LLJ takes hold. IFR conditions do look to improve some tomorrow morning with another round of showers possible into the day, especially for the northern sites. A few gusts in the 20-25 mph range are expected as the steady SSW wind picks up and lower ceilings try to improve back to VFR or higher end MVFR values.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.