textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cool, showery conditions should continue intermittently through Friday evening. Heavier showers could produce gusty winds and graupel/small hail this afternoon and evening.

* There is a low chance for the first flakes of the season Friday afternoon and evening mainly east of I-65, but the warm ground should prevent anything from sticking.

* High pressure building in will allow for widespread dry weather this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

This Afternoon through Friday Night...

Across the area this afternoon, temperatures are in the low-to-mid 50s in most locations with breezy NW winds continuing in the wake of last night's cold front. Steepening low-level lapse rates combined with moisture in the 925-700 mb layer has allowed for the development of a broken stratocu field, with cloud cover filling in over the past few hours. A secondary mid-level vort max descending into the Ohio Valley this afternoon is supporting ascent in the low- to-mid levels of the atmosphere, leading to the development of scattered rain showers. Sounding profiles from SDF show 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE, and some of the showers have grown tall enough to produce graupel or small hail given freezing heights which are falling below 1 km this afternoon.

Through early evening, scattered to numerous showers should continue to move from NW to SE across the area. The mid-level shortwave axis and a secondary cold front should push through the region this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold advection. The shower activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating and the passage of the trough axis this evening; however, another mid-level wave coming down from the Great Lakes tonight is expected to bring an area of deeper saturation, leading to more cloud cover and a return of shower chances by early Friday morning. Increasing low cloud cover overnight and persistent NW winds should keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows expected to range from the mid 30s to around 40 in most locations.

For the day on Friday, additional vort lobes are expected to pinwheel across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, bringing forcing for rising motion across the area. As referenced above, 12Z REFS guidance shows an area of deeper saturation (up to around 650 mb or - 15C) pivoting across the region during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This deeper saturation, combined with steep lapse rates, should allow for another round of scattered showers, especially east of I-65. Temperatures near the surface tomorrow will be around 10 degrees cooler than today, with many locations remaining in the low-to-mid 40s through much of the day. Model soundings show freezing levels falling to around 2-2.5k ft AGL tomorrow afternoon, with intermittent saturation into the DGZ. As a result, while the predominant p-type will be rain tomorrow, some brief transitions to or mixing with snow and/or graupel will be possible in the heaviest precipitation cores. No impacts are expected from wintry precipitation. Breezy NW winds will make things feel quite chilly tomorrow, with 10-15 mph winds expected through the day.

Friday evening, the broader area of low-to-mid level moisture will begin to eject off to the east, with some clearing likely across the area. We'll have to watch how persistent the Lake Michigan streamer band of moisture is, as that could bring additional clouds and flurries or sprinkles into Friday night. Temperatures should fall to around or just below freezing by sunrise Saturday.

This Weekend through the Middle of Next Week...

The broad mid- and upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will start to pull out of the region on Saturday, with sfc high pressure descending toward the Ohio Valley from the NW. Upstream building of ridging aloft should strengthen the sfc high pressure, with a ~1035 mb high expected over the region by Monday morning. This will allow a broad cP air mass to settle over the region this weekend, bringing below normal temperatures and dry air which will continue over the area into early next week.

Over the weekend, temperatures should be about 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s and lows in the mid- 20s to around 30. Daytime stratocu should re-develop on Saturday, and then potentially across the Bluegrass on Sunday; however, dry weather is expected.

For the first half of next week, omega blocking pattern will set up across the central CONUS, with sfc high pressure remaining just to the northeast of the region. The dry air mass in place will support large daily temperature swings from lows below freezing to highs in the 50s (60s possible by Wednesday). The omega block should start to break by next Wednesday-Thursday; however, any precipitation chances should remain to the NW of the area through the end of the current forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 650 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR-MVFR ceilings and conditions will continue tonight through the morning hours. BWG may briefly see a window of clearing before reducing to MVFR ceilings. All other terminals will remain in MVFR to high end IFR in the morning hours. Passing showers now will dissipate before returning in scattered coverage after sunrise tomorrow. Low-hanging clouds may also reduce visibilities tomorrow in LEX-RGA. MVFR ceilings will continue tomorrow afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.