textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* The remnants of Isaias departs off to our east this evening, with rainfall chances decreasing from west to east over the coming hours. * As skies clear out this evening, chances for the development of dense fog will increase tonight (40-60%) for areas along and east of I-65.

* Dry and warm weather will return Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances returning by Wednesday and Thursday. Friday features a cooling trend with temperatures that lasts into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The western edge of lower stratus from the remnants of Isaias is slowly creeping towards the western portions of our area. Pockets of light rain and drizzle are still ongoing, especially for places along and east of I-65. Chances for precipitation will continue to decrease from west to east as the afternoon progresses, with dry conditions expected across the region by sunset this evening. Upper- level ridging will build in over the Ohio Valley as the remnants of Isaias departs off to the east, setting up a period of calm conditions that will go into the early parts of the workweek. With decreasing winds expected tonight, in addition to residual moisture from this weekend's rain, chances (40-60%) for dense fog will increase late tonight, especially for areas along and east of I-65. Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with mostly clear skies expected during the day on Monday.

As the upper ridge shifts eastward across the central and eastern CONUS, southerly surface flow and warmer temperatures will return to the region. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 80s, increasing to the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few isolated places could reach 90, with LREF outputting 20-30% chances for highs reaching 90 for western and central Kentucky. By Wednesday morning, a frontal boundary pushes southward towards central Indiana as the upper-level ridging pattern becomes less amplified. Chances for showers and isolated storms will return as the front continues to slowly move southward, becoming nearly stationary over the region by Thursday. Chances for precip will continue into the latter parts of the workweek before a shortwave trough swings through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes regions and helps push the front southward out of the area by Friday.

Surface high pressure builds in behind the trough, setting up a stretch of dry conditions for next weekend. Another thing to monitor will the the considerable cool down in temperatures after this features moves through. Decent cold air advection will help result in colder than normal conditions both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s forecast. The main focus temperature- wise will come during the overnight periods Friday and Saturday night, with the potential for temperatures to drop below 40 both nights. While chances are not as high for Saturday morning (15-25% from latest LREF), chances increase considerably for Sunday morning (50-70%) that also introduces the potential for our first frost of the season (30-50% chance).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Low MVFR and IFR ceilings/cigs continue across the terminals this afternoon, with brief periods of LIFR continuing over LEX and RGA. Conditions will slowly improve to higher-endMVFR/VFR and chances for light rain/drizzle will subside later this afternoon into this evening west to east as cloud cover slowly retreats from the region. With reduced winds and residual low-level moisture from this weekend's system, chances for fog will increase after 08z, especially for LEX and RGA. Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.