textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong storms are possible this evening but conditional upon surface heating, and threat will diminish after sunset.

* Cold front pushes through early Friday morning, with breezy winds, cold temps, and spotty showers as it passes.

* Cool temperatures linger throughout the weekend, bringing a chance for frost to the Bluegrass and low-lying valleys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

***********Today's Severe Potential************************* Since the last discussion, SPC has expanded the marginal risk to the remainder of the S IN CWA counties, with a slight just clipping Washington, Orange, Dubois, and Scott counties. While the upper- level wind profile and shear is favorable for a wind and low-end tornado threat, this risk is entirely based on the potential of storms to form. At the moment, it does not appear that we have had or will have enough surface heating for these storms to form. However, if clearing occurs across Southern Illinois and Indiana within the next two hours, this threat may become slightly more realistic. This threat should quickly clear out after sunset as we lose the surface-based energy to sustain it.

***********Overnight and Friday's Cold Front******************* Bowling Green has broken their high record for today, although they are likely the only ones. Cloud cover has kept the rest of the CWA in a fog/drizzle/showery environment today, pushing the high temps toward the low 80s instead. Overnight, our minimum temperatures will occur close to sunrise. There should be a northwest to southeast gradient, with temperatures in southern IN in the mid-50s and south central KY in the mid-60s. We expect the cold front to push through in the same direction, with it passing over S IN around 08z. This means that tomorrow's max temps should also occur just after sunrise, with highs near 60 for S IN, the Bowling Green Area, and the Louisville area. Highs are likely to be closer to the upper 60s for the Bluegrass and low 70s for Lake Cumberland area.

With this cold front, expect to see a wind switch from southwesterly flow to northwesterly flow. It will be breezy tomorrow, with sustained speeds in the 13-15 kt range and gusts up to 25kts. Winds will persist into the overnight hours. A light line of showers is also likely, which should clear out by tomorrow evening. Tomorrow night's min temperatures will be around the 40 degree mark.

**************This weekend's fall weather**********************

Saturday should see some seasonable temperatures, with high temperatures in the 50s. Breezy conditions should persist through the day on Saturday, with wind direction shifting to northeasterly throughout the day as as the surface Low pushes off the coast and a surface high sets up over northern Indiana. Overnight Saturday night, winds should slow down. Frost is certainly not out of the question early Sunday morning, but winds are the limiting factors. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-30s across the region for overnight lows. We do warm back up a bit on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s as the High pressure pushes towards Pennysylvania, where it stagnates over the mid-Appalachians. This will lead to a continues wind shift, to the point where we likely have southerly flow Sunday evening, albeit light flow. Expect chlly overnight lows again, in the 30s.

The stagnant high pressure should keep us seasonable for the end of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Expect mostly light winds throughout. However, clear skies should be visible for some gorgeous fall sunsets.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A stationary front is currently draped over northern KY leading to more cloud cover on the cool side to the north. Overcast skies are beginning to break along with improving ceilings from south to north. Scattered to isolated rain showers (and a few storms) will remain in the TAFs for tonight and into tomorrow. Sites can expected a period of mostly VFR conditions this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW. As the boundary pushes into the forecast area overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a wind shift with 20-25kt winds are expected for all sites. There is a 40-50% chance that wind gust could overachieve >25kts. With ample moisture ahead of the front, rain showers have to potential to form in the morning with the forcing of the boundary.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.