textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers will move through the region this evening into tonight, though precipitation amounts will be light. An brief initial period of sleet or snow may mix in this afternoon, but little to no impacts are expected.

* A reinforcing blast of cold air arrives tomorrow, with wind chills in the upper teens and low 20s.

* Another system will move through the region Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a chance for accumulating wintry precipitation. Exact precipitation types and amounts is still uncertain, but adverse impacts to Tuesday morning travel is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 344 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

This afternoon, cool and mostly cloudy conditions are present over most of the area, with a bit of filtered sunshine still breaking through along the TN border at this hour. Radar returns have continue to move across portions of the area, with precipitation 10+ kft AGL evaporating/sublimating as it encounters dry air near the sfc. There is a strong temperature gradient from north to south across the area as a warm front is draped across the region, with temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 30s north of I-64 to the mid-to-upper 40s along the TN border.

Later this afternoon and evening, the plume of low-to-mid level moisture which has remained to the west of the area so far today will begin to slide east across our area. This should allow a couple bands of showers to push through the area around sunset, continuing through the evening hours. Give the low-level dry air and an initially marginal thermal profile, wouldn't be surprised if the initial wave of precipitation had some sleet or snow mixed in; however, this should quickly change to rain as temperatures warm throughout the column. Later tonight, a 55-60 kt LLJ will move across the area, and while stability near the sfc should keep most of the stronger winds aloft, breezy southerly winds are expected overnight. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are likely overnight. This will keep temperatures fairly steady in the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s until the cold FROPA arrives Sunday morning.

After the first wave of showers tonight, a mid-level dry slot is expected to work across the area. While scattered light rain showers and drizzle will continue, this will cut down on rain totals, with most locations receiving less than a tenth of an inch.

The cold front should begin to move across the area in the pre-dawn hours Sunday, clearing into eastern KY by the mid-to-late morning hours. Winds should swing around to the west behind the front, bringing strong CAA into the region. As a result, temperatures will be fairly steady in the 30s or may even fall into the 20s during the daytime hours on Sunday, especially north of the WK/BG Parkways. Wind chills will likely be stuck in the upper teens and low-to-mid 20s Sunday afternoon. Low clouds are likely to continue across much of the area tomorrow, though areas south of the Parkways would have a better chance to break out of the low clouds. Where the better low- level moisture exists farther north, occasional flurries or drizzle can't be ruled out.

Sunday night, winds should gradually subside as high pressure slides across the Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies, but dry weather, is expected across the area. What will be most notable during this period will be the continued cold temperatures, with readings falling into the low-to-mid 20s Monday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 344 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Monday - Tuesday...

The ingredients for a wintry weather system continue to come together for the Ohio Valley for Monday night into Tuesday, though considerable uncertainties remain which will impact precipitation types and amounts.

Monday morning, sfc high pressure will be located across the Midwest with temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s across the area. During the day on Monday, an upper-level shortwave ejecting out of the southern US Rockies will support the development of an area of low pressure over the western Gulf which will draw moisture northward into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys by Monday night. Model guidance has trended toward a more suppressed upper shortwave with the latest run of guidance, leading to a more southerly storm track and a southward shift in the rain/mix/snow line across the area.

The more amplified solutions (e.g., Canadian, GFS) bring stronger WAA and moisture advection into the region, resulting in greater precipitation totals, but also increasing the potential for mixed/liquid p-types. In contrast, the suppressed solutions (e.g., ECMWF) keep a more favorable thermal profile for predominantly snow as the p-type, but also limit the moisture, increasing the probability of remaining dry or only seeing light precipitation amounts, especially along and north of the OH River. With all of the potential failure modes which exist with this system, forecast confidence in snowfall/wintry precip amounts is still not particularly high, and the expected rain/mix/snow/dry cutoffs will likely shift over coming days. With all this being said, it is fairly unlikely that this system will result in warning-level snow/ice amounts, as the window of moisture is pretty narrow, mainly between late evening Monday and mid-morning Tuesday. Still, given a relatively cold stretch of weather leading up to this event, even lesser amounts of snow and/or ice could cause significant impacts to travel conditions, exacerbated by the fact that much of the precipitation should fall immediately before the morning rush on Tuesday.

By late Tuesday morning, conditions will begin to clear, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 30s expected during the day on Tuesday.

Tuesday Night and beyond...

Quieter weather is expected for the middle of the week with high pressure moving across the southeast US Tuesday night into Wednesday. While the pattern will lead to a continuation of below normal temperatures, there should be some moderation on Wednesday with highs warming into the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s. A weak cold front is expected to bring precipitation chances as it crosses the Great Lakes mid-week; however, it looks like we will mainly see increased clouds Wednesday night into Thursday as the tail end of the front crosses the area. Increased cloud cover and weak cold advection Thursday may knock temperatures down a bit, especially along and north of I-64, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 30s across southern IN to the low 40s across southern KY.

The next consistent signal for precipitation shows up by the end of the week as an upper-level wave ejects out of the Rockies, lifting an area of sfc low pressure out of the Gulf and into the Ohio Valley. At this time, the ensemble consensus suggests that most of the precipitation with this system should fall as rain, with the precipitation chasing a cold air mass out of the region. With that being said, ECMWF p-type meteograms do show some wintry p-type members, so we'll have to monitor this system over coming days. An unsettled pattern will continue into next weekend as additional disturbances are expected to develop within the split upper-level pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 653 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

As a north to south oriented cold front moves east towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky, gusty southerly winds and an increasing low level jet could cause periods of low level wind shear. The system will bring lower ceilings with continued precipitation before the front pushes through later this morning (8- 15z). Lower ceilings are expected to remain in place through the day tomorrow at SDF and HNB. BWG could return to VFR levels by the afternoon with RGA and possibly LEX returning later in the afternoon/evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.