textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Fog possible across the area this morning.

* Warmer today before a cold front drops into the region this evening. Scattered light rain will accompany the cold front.

* Weak signal for light precip Thursday evening.

* A low pressure system is forecasted to move through this weekend, bringing 1-2 inches of rain and potentially higher totals over southern Kentucky.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 355 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Upper ridging and a surface warm front are moving through the region this morning, which has helped winds shift from SE to S/SW this morning. Over the next few hours, light winds will usher in moisture along a WAA regime. Monitoring observations over TN and the Mississippi River, low stratus and fog is pushing NE. There is still a signal for some possible advection fog between 12-18Z today. Though, dew points have been slow to increase so far, which is decreasing confidence. Will continue to monitor observations and keep patchy fog in the grids. If fog were to happen, we would likely see patchy fog over southern Kentucky and thick fog over central Kentucky and southern Indiana where there is still snowpack. If fog develops, an SPS or DFA will be needed.

This afternoon, a 40-45kt LLJ will move over the region, increasing surface gusts up to 25mph. Continued WAA will increase high temperatures into the upper 60s over southern Kentucky and possibly reaching 70. Central Kentucky and southern Indiana will likely see low to mid 60s today. Though, if fog does develop, temperatures will be about 3-5 degrees cooler. A cold front will push SE through the region in the late afternoon and evening hours, which will bring scattered showers and a NW wind shift. Expecting light QPF around 0.1-0.25 inches, mostly over Kentucky.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front, helping to thin clouds in the early morning hours on Wednesday. CAA behind the cold front will bring low temperatures down into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 355 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Wednesday - Thursday...

The lower Ohio Valley will be under quiet northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Conditions will remain dry during this time. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday will be near or below freezing, so will have to watch for refreezing and slick spots on roads after good melting during the day.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Late Thursday, surface high pressure will begin to push east of the region and winds will slowly veer to the southeast during this timeframe. A frontal boundary over the northern Gulf will allow for isentropic lift into the region. Additionally, northwesterly flow aloft may become slightly more active, where weak vorticity and mid- level moisture may bring some light precipitation. This forecast is low confidence given dry air at the surface. Main timeframe looks to be Thursday evening into Thursday night. QPF would remain light.

Saturday - Monday...

A closed low off the coast of California for most of the week will eject east across the CONUS Friday and Saturday. Ahead of this system, ridging will build over the region and increase temperatures and moisture. The closed low is expected to move over the Southeastern CONUS on Sunday into Monday, bring a surface low through the lower Ohio Valley. Deep moisture and the right entrance region of the upper jet will provide a good environment for efficient precipitation production. PWATs of 1-1.25 inches over southern Kentucky are still projected, which represents the higher end of climatology for this time of year. EFI shows higher probabilities and a increased shift of tails for QPF, which is not overly concerning, since the 5 week window of the EFI is just now beginning to sample the rainy season. Though we will continue to monitor this system over the coming days. Current QPF forecast is 1- 2 inches, with localized areas of higher totals in southern Kentucky.

Beyond this system, high pressure looks to build into the region. This will bring drier weather for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Winds continue to veer from the SE to the SW this morning, which will help to usher in better low-level moisture. This warm, moist air over a cold surface and snow pack may allow for some advection fog to develop and move into the region from the SW. There is evidence of this of the Mississippi Delta region currently. Confidence has increased in fog occurrence, though still remains low- medium. Will continue to monitor observations and will amend TAFs as needed. Have mentioned light fog at the TAF sites, which will present between 12-18Z today. Otherwise, skies will remain VFR through most of the day and winds will gust up to 22-24kts out of the SSW. A cold front will move through this evening, bringing a wind shift from SSW to NW and scattered to numerous rain showers.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.