textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today and tonight, a weak cold front could bring an isolated chance for a shower or storm, mainly across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

* Tuesday, overall drier and hotter conditions arrive as an upper ridge builds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today, the upper trough that brought isolated showers to the region yesterday is now to our east. Upper flow remains mostly zonal, but is beginning to transition into a mild upper ridge with upper high pressure centered over the South. This flow will push a cold front towards the Lower Ohio Valley this evening. This could result in just enough forcing to kick off a line of showers/thunderstorms with the best chances being over northern Kentucky this evening. The trend of precipitation has been dropping. Continued weak shear and limited instability will limit any severe risk. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s.

Tonight, a low chance remains that a few isolated showers cold push across southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Most however are expected to remain dry. CAA behind the front will clearing skies will help temperatures drop into the upper 50s across our northern communities to the upper 60s across southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Monday, behind the cold front, surface high pressure along with upper ridging reach the CWA, bringing drier conditions to the region, but as the center of the high passes to our north, WAA returns for Tuesday. This will lift highs back into the low to mid 90s for the middle of next week.

Through at least Wednesday as the upper ridge becomes more positively tilted, the center of the upper high will sit centered near the Tennessee Valley. This has pushed precipitation chances from a front riding over the ridge farther north, trending our precipitation chances lower through at least midweek, but by Thursday or Friday, as the upper high drifts west of the Mississippi, northwest flow could help push a cold front through the Lower Ohio Valley. This will provide additional precipitation chances later in the week for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. It will also bring a return of falling temperatures with highs only reaching into the 80s by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Light winds begin in a westerly direction at around 5 kts this afternoon before slowly turning toward the northerly direction and picking up to around 10 kts. An isolated few gusts of around 18 kts are possible later this evening. The wind then shifts to a northeasterly direction in the early morning hours. Very small chances of showers are in the forecast, but confidence is far too low to include in even a PROB30 group. Fog remains possible in the early morning, but confidence is low. CIGs will remain VFR while a slightly lower scattered cloud deck approaches overnight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.