textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into tonight. The highest threat of severe weather will be across southern Indiana with a conditional severe threat across Kentucky.

* Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Early this morning, we are seeing some moderate to briefly heavy rain showers move north from TN into south-central KY. These showers are being driven by upper level divergence, mid-level vorticity wing over the area, and WAA regime due to weak 850mb LLJ nosing into southern KY. Model sounding and mesoanalysis suggest up to 250 J/kg of MLCAPE across that area, so can't rule out seeing some ticks of lightning with any stronger updrafts and colder cloud tops. Per hi- res CAMs, we'll see these isolated to scattered showers and few storms continue to shift northward into central KY through the morning. Little to no severe potential is expected with these due to the limited instability, the elevated nature of these cells, and meager shear profiles.

===== Severe Storms Possible Today =====

A sfc low is expected to deepen throughout today as it shifts from eastern Kansas this morning to the Great Lakes by tonight, and will be responsible for a Slight risk for severe weather later today north of the KY Pkwys. Outside of the isolated precip chances across central KY this morning, most of the area should remain mostly dry today, with at least some partial clearing of clouds expected through the afternoon. As the sfc low tracks to the northeast, it will lift a warm front through the region, placing our forecast area within the broad warm sector. Temps are already starting out quite mild with mid to upper 50s this morning, but should see temps warm into the upper 60s and low 70s by the afternoon. Combined with sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s, we will realize marginal instability this afternoon in a high shear environment, leading to the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

Even with convection expected later today, there remains some discrepancy between hi-res guidance, especially with the NAM as it places some slight subsidence within the column, which limits the amount of convective activity compared to other model suites due to interrupting the expected ascent. Despite these concerns, there is rather good agreement in other components. Model soundings depict a favorable environment for supercells this afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to several hundred J/kg, substantial bulk wind shear parameters, and backed sfc winds. We'll see the LLJ strengthen this afternoon underneath strong mid-level SW winds, which suggest long, straight hodographs, indicating that we may see splitting supercells. These supercells will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

Convective initiation will likely take place to our west sometime early afternoon across central IL and southwestern IN, within proximity to the warm front and where the steeper low level lapse rates will be. This convection then may move eastward along the warm front and arrive in our area as somewhat discrete supercells, but could see some small clusters as well. Overall, the greatest tornado threat for our area remains primarily across southern IN, where there is slightly better low level curvature in the wind profile, but still seeing elongated hodographs. Given the magnitude of the shear profiles, we could see a few supercells end up just south of I- 64 too. South of the KY Pkwys, any convection looks to be much more isolated, as it will be separated from the warm front but still within the warm sector.

As we get into the evening time frame, there is good hi-res consensus on seeing discrete convection turn into more of a broken linear storm mode ahead of the approaching cold front. Instability will be gradually decreasing, but strong low-level jetting will keep our SRH and wind shear parameters quite high. Through the evening, the threat remains possible for some quick spin-ups embedded in the broken line, along with damaging winds. Convection will likely continue into the overnight, though we will see a gradual weakening trend as instability wanes later into the night. Convection could be departing our area by 06z tonight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

===== Friday into the Weekend =====

Drier conditions are expected for Friday in the wake of the departing cold front. We'll see increasing sunshine as cloud cover clears, though we'll be in a CAA regime behind the front. Lingering sfc pressure gradient, along with a backside LLJ moving over the region, will promote additional gusty winds during the day, with some mix down leading to gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Per the LREF grand ensemble and the NBM, best chances for exceeding 30 mph gusts will be north of I-64. Friday will be one of those unique days where the daily high occurs at or shortly after midnight, with temps falling through the entire morning to the upper 40s and low 50s for most. With some afternoon sun, we could see temps rebound slightly into the upper 50s and low 60s, with the greatest recovery taking place across south-central KY.

A secondary sfc low will develop and move across the Gulf States over the weekend ahead of a weak shortwave. However, majority of the precip chances will remain south of our area, but can't completely rule out a few showers sneaking north from TN into our southern counties. Chances remain low with only a 20% south of the Pkwys for early Saturday morning. We'll have quite a dry layer up to 700mb to work through, so a 20% PoP might even be somewhat generous. Some additional low precip chances linger into Saturday evening underneath upper level troughing, though there remains some variation on best moisture axis placement over the weekend. Some rain-snow mix or a switch over to light snow may be possible for Saturday night into Sunday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. No accumulations expected here given limited QPF, but could see some light accums in far eastern KY where better upslope flow occurs.

There is higher confidence on seeing our temps cool down for Sunday, with highs remaining in the 30s for most. We'll be in a stronger CAA pattern with deeper NW flow ushering in cooler air from the high plains. Mostly dry weather is expected, with a lingering shower possible in the Bluegrass area for Sunday morning.

===== Next Week =====

A dry stretch of weather is expected for Monday through Wednesday morning as an expansive sfc high pressure moves across the country. Our coldest day of the long term could be Monday, with highs slightly cooler than Sunday with only mid 30s forecast. However, our coldest overall temperatures will be Monday night into Tuesday morning, thanks to the sfc high being directly overhead, leading to nearly calm winds and clear skycover. Low temps in the upper teens to low 20s forecast for Tuesday morning.

Our next rain chances during next week could arrive by Wednesday afternoon, when we see another sfc low track across the Great Lakes. This would open the door for WAA pattern to return, leading to 50s back in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, along with the chance for light to moderate rain showers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Low stratus is building back across the region early this morning, resulting in flight cat restrictions to MVFR or lower. Some light rain remains possible for BWG before sunrise. Otherwise, the bigger impact to terminals come this afternoon and evening and some thunderstorms will be possible. Some improvement to cigs is expected through the day, but have kept PROB30 groups going for TS chances this afternoon and evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.