textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of central KY through Sunday afternoon. Slow moving clusters of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential of producing heavy rainfall with localized amounts of 2+ inches continue the threat for localized flash flooding.

* Unseasonably cool temperatures Monday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms thanks to a slow moving cut-off upper low over KY.

* Mainly dry and warmer Tuesday through the end of the week with daily afternoon chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs near seasonal normals in the upper 80s to near 90.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Overnight into early morning...

Rotation associated with a weak sfc low could be seen on KLVX radar over Hancock, Daviess and Ohio Counties with a nearly stationary band of moderate to heavy rainfall stretching from Breckinridge, to Hardin then along and south of the Bluegrass Pky over to Madison County and Richmond, KY. Recent runs of the HRRR and other CAMS keep this band nearly stationary through the rest of the predawn hours towards daybreak. While we have seen some weakening with these showers and storms there have been rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour with some locally at times over 3" inches. SPC Meso-analysis shows high PWATs of near 2.0" and all of this is interacting with the slow moving sfc boundary trying to drop south. Given the already saturated soils and potential duration of these showers and storms decided to extend portion of the Flood Watch the was expected to expire overnight to 12z. Concern is there for the potential of significant Flash Flooding along this band if we continue to hold on to current rainfall intensity.

Today and Tonight...

Sfc boundary and associated sfc low is expected to meander around the KY/TN border during day. Behind these features, light NE flow will develop allowing for slightly drier air to work in from the north and lowering PWAT values for areas in southern IN and across portions of north central KY. Just to the south of the boundary PWAT values are expected to remain high between 1.8 to 2.0" allowing for redevelopment of showers and storms due to daytime heating and destabilization of the atmosphere. Unlike the past few days, the severe threat is significantly lower but with with the high PWAT values and the locations of the weak boundary and sfc low slow moving showers and thunderstorms could still result in localized flash flooding due to saturated ground. Flood Watch is in effect for portions of central and southern KY until this evening. Any afternoon showers and storms that develop will start to diminish with the loss of daytime heating later tonight.

Monday...

As we go into the start of the new week we will remain under the influence of a cut-off upper low and the weak sfc low over the TN Valley on Monday. Temperatures will be a little warmer than Sunday but still below normal for this time of year with highs in the low/mid 80s. The cut-off low along with daytime heating will be enough to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon but is not expected to be as wet as it has been over the last couple of days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 157 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The cut-off low will continue to retrograde westward developing a Rex blocking pattern over the central US through the end of the week. As the upper low works west, upper level ridging along with surface high pressure will build in over the region providing a mainly dry and warm weather through the end of the week. PWAT values will increase to between 1.8-2.0" as the close low over the plains and sfc high pressure to our south advect tropical moisture from the south. With highs returning to seasonal normals in the upper 80s to near 90 we could see diurnally driven pulse type convection each afternoon. While storm development will not be as widespread as this past weekend with a limited severe threat, any storms that do form have the potential for gusty downburst winds and localized flooding from slow moving heavy downpours.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 712 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Slow moving sfc low and sfc boundary will be over mainly southern KY today and the focus for development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. BWG, LEX and RGA have the highest chance of seeing a thunderstorm later today but SDF was a big marginal but decided to go ahead and put in a prob30. Currently we have some areas of mainly MVFR CIG and a few IFR spots but they have been bouncing in and out of various flight categories all morning this has made for a slightly low confidence through the first half of the forecast.

Drier air coming in from the north will eventually help lift CIG to VFR and that will mainly be the flight categories, there could be some MVFR to IFR CIG south towards BWG near the end of the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ027- 028-035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082. IN...None.