textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread rainfall today ranging from .50" to 1.10" for most across central and southern Kentucky. Localized amounts of 2 to 3" possible from slow moving showers and storms producing moderate to heavy rainfall. A few instances of Flash Flooding possible.

* Marginal Risk for severe storm this afternoon and early evening along and south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways across central and southern KY for the potential for severe gusty winds and spin-up tornados.

* Another round of scattered to numerous moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday could lead to another day with the potential for localized flash flooding across the northern Bluegrass.

* High pressure building and waning at the mid levels this week will provide episodic bouts of showers in our southern counties, with areas along and north of the Ohio having the best chance of remaining dry into next week.

* At or below normal temperatures and cool NE flow brings stretches pleasant weather into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The main message in the short term continues to be the following: First, the potential for localized flash flooding due to a repeat periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms over the area today and again tomorrow.

Second, thunderstorm that form later this afternoon and evening have the potential to be severe with the threat being gusty damaging winds and spin up tornadoes.

***FLOODING CONCERNS***

As was highlighted in the previous discussion, a deep moisture plume featuring PWATS of ranging between 1.9-2.1" will lift northward across central KY through the morning into the early afternoon. This will result in widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. We still anticipate the heaviest and most widespread swath of rain to be across central and southern KY where 0.5 to 1.25" are possible with locally high amounts as high as 2 to 2.5" from slow moving and potentially training storms over areas that have already been saturated by rain over the last couple of days. Decided to hold off on a Flood Watch as there was not much discussion and WPC continues to keep central KY in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Outlook. With that said, given the high PWAT values, the potential slow movement of showers and thunderstorms over already saturated areas a few Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings may be issued during the day.

Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could develop tomorrow thanks to a quasi-stationary boundary over the Ohio Valley. WPC did put the northern part of the Bluegrass and our far eastern southern IN counties in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday with the rest of our CWA remaining in a Marginal Risk. Deep moisture will continue to in place over the area with additional rounds of slow moving showers and storms producing localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.

***SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY***

The above mentioned deep moisture will push dewpoints to near 70 later this afternoon. Hi-res models also show a break in clouds by the mid to late afternoon allowing for SBCAPE values to get to between 1000-1500 J/kg. A LLJ will start to push northward into central KY during the day allowing for increase low-level shear and model soundings also show mid-level and curved hodographs across southern and central KY later this afternoon. After collaborating with neighbors and the SPC, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) was added for areas south of a line from Lexington to Elizabethtown along I-65 to Bowling Green and along the KY/TN border due to a low end, marginal tornado threat and isolated severe wind gusts from any potential storms. Confidence in severe threat is low but given recent activity agree with SPC decision and placement of the Marginal Outlook.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Sfc high pressure is expected to build in over the Great Lakes for the second half of the week and into the weekend. This will help to push the meandering stalled boundary further south. Just how dry the area will be during this period will be determined by just how far the boundary goes Thursday into the weekend. Some solutions do show the front stalling out just south of the area and keeping low end precipitation chances across our far southern CWA through the end of the week and into the weekend. But general confidence is moderate to high that a vast majority of the CWA remains dry. Temperatures are also expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals for this time of year ranging from the low 80s on Thursday to the upper 70s Friday into the weekend with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

High pressure is expected to remain over the region to our north to start next week keeping the forecast dry for now and continued unseasonably below normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain showers continue to push northward with lowering CIGS and VIS due to showers. We will see areas go from VFR to MVFR with a few locations down to IFR due to CIG and at times VIS due to heavy rainfall. This will be around for most of the day with some improvement later tonight but could see low stratus once again later this evening into tomorrow morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.