textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and some gusty winds should be expected near any thunderstorms.

* Seasonable temperatures (mid-upper 80s) and daily chances (20-40%) for afternoon-evening thunderstorms are forecast throughout the upcoming work week. The risk for severe weather appears low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Today, a positively tilted upper trough is beginning to inch in over the Lower Ohio Valley. Wind energy at all levels is typical late summer, light, but an abundance amount of moisture remains over the region. A very weak frontal boundary sits near the Ohio River with precipitable water values between 1.6-1.8" to the north and 1.8-2" to the south. As diurnal warming is expected to cause afternoon convection to develop, most of the activity is expected to remain along and south of the Ohio River in Kentucky. Not expected much of a severe threat with limited shear, but every thunderstorm produces lightning and can produce gusty winds. Highs are expected to reach into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tonight, the upper trough continues inching east until becoming directly over the Lower Ohio Valley. As we lose daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin dissipating. Patchy fog will become possible in areas that see rain as temperatures fall and approach the dew point. Lows are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tuesday through Thursday looks like more of the same. The positively tilted upper trough could be slow to move off to the east. Through this period we can expect diurnally driven daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms that lack shear but have some instability to work with in the very moist environment. This will bring daily chances for heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds. Chances for severe weather remain fairly low, and wouldn't let the chances for precipitation get in the way of plans. Surface winds will remain light as highs reach into the mid to upper 80s. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s keep heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Friday, the global models begin to show a possible west to east oriented cold front dropping south through the Ohio Valley. This could initially bring added shower and storm activity to southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but by the end of the weekend into early next week, precipitation chances drop as moisture gets pushed south, out of Kentucky.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon between scattered storms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be present within these storms at times, bringing lightning and heavy downpours. Winds outside of storms will remain light and generally from the WNW becoming very light to calm overnight. Patchy fog could develop in the morning as well, reducing visibilities to MVFR/IFR conditions, more so in areas that receive rain today. Otherwise, ceilings slowly raise late tomorrow morning at VFR conditions again with scattered storms returning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.