textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain showers are possible early this morning for counties along and south of the Western Kentucky/Bluegrass Parkways. Very light rainfall amounts expected. Clouds clear out fairly quickly through the mid-morning hours.

* Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for much of this week, with a few cool mornings expected.

* A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts should be less than 0.25" across the area.

* Warming pattern returns for the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures nearing 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Conditions are overcast early this morning, and radar imagery reveals light returns spreading east from western KY. Abundant mid- level moisture will spread east across central KY early this morning ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave trough. This precipitation will battle cool, dry northerly flow in the low levels, which will limit rainfall amounts. Relatively higher rainfall amounts are still expected south of the WK/BG parkways, where totals will still be less than 0.10" in most places. The Lake Cumberland region could see slightly more than 0.10".

The scattered light rain will gradually end from west to east across central KY between 5-9 AM EDT. The upper trough axis swings east of the area today, spreading the deeper moisture across Virginia and North Carolina. Clouds will also clear out fairly quickly through the mid-morning hours, and the bulk of the daytime looks mostly sunny.

Temperatures should gradually settle into the upper 40s to mid 50s this morning. Sfc high pressure quickly builds in from the west this afternoon, when temperatures will rebound into the low 70s with the aid of sunshine. Model forecast soundings and RH time heights suggest a SCT diurnal cu field will develop this afternoon across southern IN and north-central KY. SCT fair weather cu should linger into the evening hours.

Sfc high pressure builds southeast across the Ohio Valley tonight, with sfc winds becoming light/calm. Temperatures will tumble into the 40s early Tuesday morning under optimal radiational cooling conditions.

Temperatures will rise quickly Tuesday morning with sunny skies. We'll see steady warm air advection via developing SW low-level flow ahead of a low pressure system rotating southeast over the Upper Midwest. We'll enjoy a beautiful day with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night

As a low pressure system continues to build over the Great Lakes and travel east, the upper trough will sweep through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. An associated frontal boundary and band of moisture will push through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Rain is expected to move into southern IN from the NW between 2am and 5am. Not much in the way of QPF with this round of rain due to drier air just above the surface.

As the cold front works its way through eastern KY, rain showers may linger through most of the afternoon on Wednesday. While the general consensus has the rain showers out by the afternoon, if the front slows, in conjunction with afternoon instability in the east, thunderstorms could develop in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas. There is low confidence on thunderstorm development due to the dependence on the cold front passage.

Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday will warm into the upper 70s and clearing skies behind the front. Gusty winds will be possible during the day due to the pressure gradient across the area. Winds will take a shift from WSW to NW during the day with gusts 20-25mph. These clear skies and light northerly wind will cool the nighttime temperatures into the upper 40s.

Thursday - Sunday

High pressure builds in behind the cold front on Thursday, bringing dry conditions and clear skies. Temperatures will warm during the day into the upper 60s and low 70s. A weakening shortwave will push into the area on Friday leading to a slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers across the forecast area Friday afternoon and lingering into the weekend. Surface high pressure continues through the end of the week into the weekend as ridging over central CONUS moves east bring a warm air mass to the region. Maximum temperatures will reach the mid 80s by Saturday and possible hit 90 on Sunday. 10-20% rain chances will remain through the weekend as a couple of shortwaves move east could lead to some isolated rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Light rain is exiting the area this morning, so this TAF period will be dry and VFR. Mid-level ceilings will also quickly scatter out at BWG, LEX, and RGA very early in the period. SCT high-based cu at 6-7 kft is expected after 19Z this afternoon at SDF and LEX.

Prevailing winds will be NE this morning, but backing out of the NW this afternoon. Winds will go light/calm after sunset tonight as high pressure builds southeast over the Ohio Valley.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.