textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Less humid and dry today, with highs in the 80s.

* Dry and slightly cooler through the latter part of the work week. Rain and thunderstorm return this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Conditions are dry, and skies are mostly clear early this morning. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s across southern IN and central KY. An upper level ridge centered near the TX Panhandle extends north over the northern Plains. An upper level trough rotates over the Northeast, and this trough will slowly shift offshore through Friday.

At the surface, high pressure is currently positioned over portions of Ontario and the Upper Midwest. Light northerly low-level flow is in place across the Ohio Valley, advecting a cooler and less humid airmass into the region. A N/NE wind continues through Thursday as the area of high pressure slowly builds southeast across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley.

Fog has been slow to develop tonight with a steady, light north wind. However, patchy fog does still look likely early this morning, particularly in the river valleys. Sfc temperatures will settle into the mid 60s to lower 70s by dawn. Today looks partly to mostly sunny, with just some scattered clouds and the presence of some wildfire smoke aloft. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon, with the southwestern CWA (Bowling Green area) topping out in the upper 80s.

Dry weather is still likely to continue Thursday and Friday. By Friday, an amplifying upper level shortwave trough is forecast to be diving southeast over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be pleasant for late July. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday, and solidly in the mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60s, and a few of our coolest spots in the Bluegrass should reach the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The pattern turns wetter this weekend. More amplified flow aloft appears likely, with a trough descending over the Ohio Valley and the upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. A weak sfc low should accompany the upper level shortwave trough, moving over the Lower OH Valley on Saturday. This wave then occludes and weakens before shifting off to the southeast heading into early next week.

A round of widespread rainfall looks likely on Saturday, with rain possibly moderate to heavy at times. However, a significant rainfall/flooding event is not expected. Instability will be somewhat muted by the upper trough and widespread cloud cover, which should also help limit the severe weather potential. LREF mean PW values are around 1.7 inches, which is elevated but not significantly anomalous (though notable model spread lingers this weekend into early next week).

Lighter rainfall appears likely on Sunday with the stacked low overhead. Highs over the weekend should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. At least diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms linger through early next week, and the majority of LREF members show at least light rain each day. However, forecast confidence in the details is fairly low by Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current GOES-19 satellite imagery reveals a N-S oriented area of low stratus and fog from KHLB to near KJVY, while some river valley fog also is noted across eastern KY. Do not expect these IFR conditions to affect any of our TAF sites, though KRGA could see TEMPO MVFR VIS due to light fog. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions throughout the day accompanied by northerly winds.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.