textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong winds from the south are expected on Sunday with gusts of 40-50 mph.

* A strong cold front will push across the region Sunday night and early Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a damaging wind threat.

* Rapid drop in temperatures will lead to a rain to snow transition early Monday morning. Light snow accumulations will be possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills in the single digits possible early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 406 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Conditions are dry and mostly sunny this afternoon, with a large north-south temperature gradient. A warm front is lifting north through the TN Valley, and temperatures are now approaching 70 degrees in southern KY. Meanwhile, temperatures are rising into the mid/upper 50s north of I-64. With the warm front just to our south and high pressure over the Great Lakes, winds are from the east at 5- 10 mph. Skies will remain mainly clear this evening with winds diminishing slightly after sunset.

Tonight, an amplifying upper level trough will dig southeast over the High Plains as a deepening sfc low develops across portions of NE/KS. The warm front will quickly lift north of the region as southwesterly LLJ winds increase across the Mid-MS and OH Valley. Locally, the SW 850 mb jet is forecast to increase to 40-50 kts between 06-12Z Sunday. Robust low-level WAA that is beginning now will continue through Sunday. Overnight lows should occur during the first half of the night, with slowly rising temps early Sunday. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 40s north of I-64 to the mid 50s in southern KY.

Sunday and Sunday night, the potent mid/upper level trough continues to amplify over the Plains and Midwest with mid-level low/vort max wrapping cyclonically across the Midwest. Due to strong ascent with very favorable right entrance region upper jet dynamics, the sfc low continues to deepen northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The trailing cold front is still forecast to blast east through central KY and southern IN late Sunday evening and overnight.

During the day on Sunday, central KY and southern IN will be positioned in a mostly dry warm sector. As low level WAA continues and sfc heating/low-level mixing increase, winds will become quite gusty by late morning. Strong southerly winds of 15-25 mph are expected on Sunday, with widespread wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Forecast confidence in strong gradient winds is high, and a Wind Advisory has been issued in collaboration with surrounding NWS offices. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for brief/isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, but HREF data simply does not support a High Wind Watch/Warning at this time (in other words, forecast confidence is too low in 58+ mph gusts out ahead of the cold front). But it's a high confidence Wind Advisory with some potential for 50+ mph gusts, especially during the afternoon hours and then again late evening immediately ahead of a convective line of showers/storms.

Sunday evening and overnight, a thin line of showers and thunderstorms will race west to east across the forecast area in a high shear, low CAPE environment. The main limiting factor remains low-level moisture quality (sfc dewpoints low to mid 50s) and available instability to sustain deep convection. That said, overall forcing and vertical wind profiles/shear are very strong. Given the wind energy in place, we really don't need much instability at all to realize wind damage at the surface. MLCAPE will likely remain below 500 J/kg, and a little bit of drier air near the sfc (higher than ideal LCLs) may limit the tornado potential to some degree. But again, 0-1 km shear/SRH values are very strong. Forecast hodographs are very long and veering gently in the lowest 1 km. Can certainly see some QLCS tornado potential, but the primary hazard is damaging 60-70+ mph wind gusts along the line.

Most likely severe weather timing: 9 PM EDT Sunday - 3 AM EDT Monday. Breaking this down a bit more, most likely arrival time looks to be 9-10 PM EDT in Jasper IN, 11 PM EDT - Midnight in Bowling Green and Louisville, and 1-2 AM EDT in the Bluegrass Region.

Behind the cold frontal passage, much colder air streams into the region early Monday morning. We still expect a transition from rain showers to snow showers, with light snow accumulation possible Monday (most likely less than 1 inch). Monday will be cold and blustery, with highs only in the 30s and winds still gusting to 25- 35 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 406 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Cold weather will linger through the middle of next week. High pressure at the sfc builds across the region on Tuesday, which will allow for some very cold nights and mornings. Lows Tuesday morning will likely drop into the teens, and single digit wind chills look possible for the ride to work and school. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will only reach the 30s once again.

A weak clipper could bring some light precipitation to the region by Wednesday, but moisture depth is questionable. Much of the deeper moisture could end up sliding to our north. Temperatures appear likely to gradually warm Wednesday through Friday next week, with highs in the 50s Wednesday and perhaps approaching 70 by Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Flight categories across our terminals remain VFR with the main impact being LLWS developing around 06z into the morning. Winds will be very strong and gusty during the day as a Wind Advisory is in place from late morning to Monday morning. Gust of 30-35kts are possible with locally higher gusts. Cold front along with a line of strong to potentially severe storms, with damaging severe wind gust the main threat will start to move into the area just beyond the end of the TAF forecast cycle. Will likely have more on this with the 06z update.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082. IN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.