textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* More snow showers and perhaps some snow squalls are possible again Friday night into Saturday. Slightly higher accumulations may occur, especially north of I-64 and east of I-65 where a coating to as much as 2" may occur.

* Drier conditions but cold expected late weekend through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 401 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Went ahead and let the Winter Weather Advisory go early. Some decent returns went over HNB/FRH and T/Td spreads didn't really change a lot. Radar trends are showing some drying on the southern end of the weak precipitation shield. So, although a few flurries or very light snow may still fall, not really much to justify keeping the headline going at this point. The next focus will be rain changing to snow later this afternoon and evening, with some snow squalls possible into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 242 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Things are cold and quiet across the CWA at this hour, although will start a more volatile stretch of weather going into later today and tonight. Currently, there are light returns just to the west of our CWA where some 4sm -SN has been observed. We'll keep the impact based Winter Weather Advisory going for a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow during the morning commute. Latest model runs do show some of the returns drying up as we head toward 7 AM EST, but for now we will continue to monitor. Overall, not a big deal but just wanted folks to know that some light snow could be falling during your drive into work.

The morning wave should exit our area by 14-15z, and we'll have a brief break in the weather as temperatures warm into the low and mid 40s for most on a steady warm advection component. This brief trend milder won't last long as another cold shot comes into the area later today into tonight.

We'll watch a precipitation shield/warm conveyor belt blossom later this afternoon into this evening as the low level jet cranks up beneath the exit region of a mid level impulse. With temperatures initially mild, we'll start out as rain and gradually try to change over to snow through the evening and overnight as the cold air undercuts from the north behind the passing cold front. Low level thermal profiles look kinda messy for a while, which is why it appears snow may struggle to accumulate initially. As we go pas Midnight, p-type should mostly change to snow with low level lapse rates steepening, especially from 09-18z. Here, we'll have deep saturation through the DGZ, and with the steep low level lapse rates we may be able to realize some weak surface based instability. As a result, think this will be the best time for more intense snow showers and squall potential. The main activity should be across southern Indiana, north central KY, and the Bluegrass region central KY. Overall, these intense and gusty snow showers (gusts to 35 to 40 MPH???) could add some brief, isolated, but notable accumulations in a short amount of time. Overall looking for storm totals to range from a coating to 2" of snow for localized spots across our northern and eastern portions of the CWA. Pretty tricky forecast, but we'll likely look at some sort of Winter Weather Advisory after this morning one expires around/after 15z.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Saturday - Saturday Evening...

The main band of warm conveyor belt precipitation will be shifting off to the east of our CWA by Saturday morning, however still have one more potent vort max to swing through our area through Saturday. Low level lapse rates will steepen, and look to get good saturation up through -10 to -20c. Expect scattered coverage of snow showers and squalls between around 12-18z mainly along and north of I-64. Forecast soundings show pretty good mixing through the low levels and it appears we may be able to get 35 to 40 mph gusts down to the surface with nay shower/squall. The snow squall parameter also seems to get most excited between 12-18z, with values generally between 3 and 5 across SE Indiana into the Bluegrass. Given the potential intensity of some of these snow showers, do think another dusting to a half inch could add to totals from Friday night. However the bigger concern would simply be the danger to driving. Will be populating with more of a consshort/consraw blend to better capture the advective regime we'll be in.

Saturday Night - Thursday...

The final shortwave trough axis pushes through on Saturday night with any lingering light snow showers ending. From here, it is pretty much just a cold forecast as dry conditions should persist through early to mid week. Lows in the teens will be common most of the morning, however Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest with values in the single digits. Minimum wind chills will likely stay in the upper single digits and teens much of this time, however a few instances of Cold Weather Advisory values can't be ruled out, especially on Tuesday morning.

Low confidence for another system to pass through our area by mid week, however models don't have a great handle on the fine details. By this time, we'll be milder so would expect liquid p-types for that round if it materializes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Mid to upper clouds will steadily build down later this morning, with some light snow expected at the northern TAF sites between 09- 15z. Ceilings should stay VFR during this stretch, however some brief vis restrictions into MVFR are possible.

The morning wave of precipitation moves off before a second round of showers, snow showers, and perhaps some squalls, work into our area from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Look for gusty winds, a few intense snow showers, and lowering ceilings into the IFR range likely for all TAF sites except HNB.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.