textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Slow moving cold front continues sliding southeast through the region. Rain shower chances remain for some into the day tomorrow.

* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s Monday and Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Cold front continues to work through the state with showers diminishing. Precipitation seems to be diminishing faster than what was previously thought and faster than what models have shown. Decided to go ahead and adjust PoP grids to reflect this trend and then just adjusted cloud cover as well. The rest of the forecast remains on track

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The cold front is now sitting over central Kentucky as it continues to the southeast. Winds are fairly light ahead of the front with 5 to 10 mph winds generally out of the north behind it. This is dropping temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across southern Indiana and near the Ohio River in central Kentucky. The earlier low level jet has moved out of the area to the northeast as 2 inch peak precipitable water values along the front are beginning to drop off and retreat to the south. This trend is expected to continue through the evening, reducing rainfall rates over central Kentucky.

Tonight, the heaviest rain will stay closer to the higher moisture, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and slide east across southern Kentucky. Areas farther to the north will see lighter more scattered showers. Most of the rain will move off to the east by sunrise Saturday morning with lows in the low 50s in southern Indiana to low to mid 60s in far southern Kentucky.

Through the day Saturday, a few isolated showers are expected to drift northeast through the Lake Cumberland area, but all other areas in the CWA are expected to remain dry with mostly sunny skies expected over the northern two thirds of the CWA. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep east-northeast winds in place as most places see the low to mid 70s for highs. There will likely be a few places that only see the upper 60s towards eastern Kentucky.

Saturday night, clear skies, light winds, and moisture from today will likely lead to patchy fog as radiative cooling drops temperatures towards dew points.

Sunday, stubborn cloud cover is expected to remain along and south of the parkways during the day, but as we head into the overnight period, a dry cold front will get pushed southeast towards the Lower Ohio Valley by northwest upper flow. This will clear skies and bring another round of light CAA ahead of another surface high behind the front, keeping highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday night, some low temperatures could drop into the upper 30s to low 40s before the high pushes east through the Great Lakes, returning WAA. Highs get lifted into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday before inching slightly warmer for the end of the workweek.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Cold front continues to work through the state of KY this evening with areas of MVFR to IFR flight categories but we are starting to see improving CIGs as HNB and areas northward into IN are starting to report VFR flight categories. We will see improvement as rain will start to diminish for BWG and RGA through the overnight and improving CIGS from the NW to the SE overnight into the morning tomorrow. While confidence is high on improving flight categories, models seem to be slower than what is actually happening so improvement may occur sooner than suggested in the ongoing TAF especially for locations like LEX/RGA. Winds will also remain steady around 10kt through the period and out of the northeast.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.