textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant end to the weekend in store. Look for highs in the upper 70s and a light breeze throughout the day.

* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with low temperatures in some areas dropping into the 40s/low 50s Monday and Tuesday night. A bit breezy Monday afternoon.

* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 40s/50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Overnight has been comfortable, with lows in the 50s across the CWA. A few high level clouds remain in place, and low-lying areas could see a shallow layer of fog early into the morning, especially across the Bluegrass area. Tomorrow should be another lovely day, with highs in the upper 70s and a light northerly breeze to keep things comfortable. We sit along the leading edge of an upper-level trough feeding a weak lower-level Low, which is reluctant to move in the next day or two. This should leave rather clear skies tomorrow night, allowing for radiational cooling down to the upper 40s and lower 50s. As it meanders out of the area, a weak High sets up over the Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s as a stiffer breeze sets up light CAA, with sustained northeasterly speeds in the 10 knot range tomorrow afternoon and a few gusts around the 15 knot mark. Relative humidity in the 30% range will lead to a less muggy feel than we've seen in a few days. Mostly clear skies and a light wind will lead to a solid decoupling tomorrow night, bringing overnight lows in the lower 40s. A low in an isolated valley of upper 30s isn't entirely out of the question, either.

Tuesday - Saturday...

Dry conditions will continue through mid week and into late week as surface high pressure controls the region beneath unremarkable/dry NW flow aloft. After highs pretty close to normal (low to mid 70s) on Tuesday, temps then trend around 10 degrees above normal through mid to late week. Looking for low and mid 80s Wed-Sat with crisp morning lows mostly in the upper 40s and low 50s.

The next chances for rain looks to arrive by late weekend as a slug of tropical moisture works its way northward out of the Gulf into the upper ridge established over the eastern CONUS. Earlier data had suggested that a trough ejecting out of the western CONUS might have shunted this system farther south and east, however latest data suggests that western energy is much slower to eject. As a result, could be set up for a round of widespread rainfall, which will likely be welcome after another dry week. Right now, LREF probabilities of 1" or greater rainfall late weekend into early next week is around 10% across southern IN to 25% across southern KY.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the day. Fog should burn off at RGA just after sunrise. Light northerly/northeasterly expected. High level clouds likely persist in at least a scattered layer throughout the day before clearing out this evening and into the overnight. Overnight should keep northerly winds, no cloud cover, and fog is highly unlikely.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.