textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers will continue this evening before dissipating tonight. Lingering runoff from heavy rain earlier today could lead to elevated streamflows, especially across the Bluegrass region. A Flood Watch continues through this evening across these areas.

* Fog development is likely tonight and may lead to areas of dense fog.

* Episodic bouts of showers/storms are expected to continue through most of this week. Localized excessive rainfall may result in flooding in some areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Partial clearing over the eastern portion of the CWA has allowed for increased heating. A surge of moisture has advected dew points into the upper 60s and low 70s over the region. SBCAPE has increased to 1500-1700J/kg over the eastern half of the CWA. Due to this, we have seen updrafts form. These showers have about 30kts of effective shear, which is allowing for weak rotation. Will continue to monitor these, but don't think severe weather is likely today. Funnels may be possible, given low LCLs and weak rotation. Additionally, a very moist airmass and slow moving and training showers will allow for increased flooding concerns. HREF LPMMs have outline areas north of the Bluegrass Parkway with 2-3 inches of rainfall. For this reason, a Flood Watch has been issued for these areas until 3Z.

Later on this evening, precip will push off to the east and the approaching cold front will stall over the region. Light winds and recent precip will allow for fog development. Some areas may see dense fog. Will continue to monitor this trend, but a SPS or a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

On Monday, the cold front will remain over the region and southerly flow against the front will allow for scattered to numerous showers and a few storms. This will mostly be along and south of the Cumberland Parkway.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

===== Monday Night - Wednesday =====

Atlantic surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep southerly flow into the region and warming temperatures through mid week. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist. Especially in areas experiencing extreme drought conditions, this rain will be beneficial. Looking to see weak CAPE and shear, which will just lead to a general thunder rather than a severe storm threat. Looking to see 0.5-1.5 inches of rain through Wednesday.

===== Thursday into the Weekend =====

Towards the end of the week, a closed low over Canada will shift southward and bring a trough through the Ohio Valley. This will bring a cold front south into the region. Shower and storm chances are expected to continue Friday and into the weekend. Once the cold front pushes through the region, temperatures will return to the mid- upper 70s and conditions will dry out.

==== Overall ====

Flooding continues to remain the concern headed into this week. PWATs will continue to be in the 1.7-1.9 inch range, indicating a very moist airmass. HREF and LREF guidance shows 1-3 inches of rain over this next week, and a 60% chance of exceeding 3 inches in the southeastern portions of the CWA. WPC shows Marginal risks over the region each day, which aligns with our thinking.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers will linger near all TAF sites over the next 1-2 hours before coverage decreases with the loss of daytime heating. A weak cold front will be slowly pushing through the region tonight, with light N/NE winds expected through much of the current forecast period. Given the rainfall which we've received over the past few days and the lack of sufficient wind and drier air behind the front, think the setup looks favorable for fog development tonight across the area. The strongest signal for IFR or lower VIS is at LEX and RGA tonight, but the signal at all sites is strong enough to carry prevailing MVFR VIS. After sunrise Monday, would expect fog to mix up into an MVFR stratocu layer before VFR conditions are favored to return in the late morning and early afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ036-037- 040>043-048-049-056-057-067. IN...None.