textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Saturday morning through early Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Significant accumulations of snow and sleet across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and significant accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across southern KY. High probabilities of Major impacts through the weekend.

* Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills expected Monday through Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light returns are overspreading the area this morning, and starting to see some light snow reports on obs across our SW CWA. Gonna take some time for the low levels to saturate farther north across southern IN and northern KY, as T/Td spreads remain separated. Forecast soundings show gradual moistening of the column, so still think we look goo for afternoon and early evening snow onset time for the rest of our NE half of the CWA. Will be taking a good look at 12z data and making any necessary changes to the forecast, but going to be tricky as it appears we still have split camps of model data on how to handle the warm nose. Cold Weather Advisory drops off in about 90 minutes, and will be visiting the idea of re-issuing for periods later this weekend into early next week. Extreme Cold Warning is also on the table for later Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 411 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley has nearly zonal flow overhead as a split upper jet merges back together. The southern part of the jet is flowing around a closed low over Baja California and flowing northeast through Texas towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This is pushing pooled moisture towards the CWA, which is sitting under the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. The aforementioned upper low will get picked up by a shortwave and will continue moving east as an upper trough.

At the surface, we begin with a surface high centered over the Midwest. This will keep northeast surface winds and cold air advection in place, but by Sunday, as the high moves off to the east, a surface low slides northeast from the Gulf, keeping cold air advection in place as winds drift towards the northwest over the CWA.

With all this said, we have moisture moving into the area being pushed by southwest winds while cold air advection is keeping temperatures well below freezing at the surface.

Today, there is a lot of dry air in place near the surface, so as ceilings begin to fall and moisture works into the region, light snow will likely begin falling during the morning hours, but it won't be until the afternoon hours when the dry air is overcome and heavier snow begins to work into central Kentucky and then southern Indiana. Expecting all the precipitation today to fall as snow.

Tonight into Sunday, the warm nose, between the 850mb to 700mb levels, begins to back towards the southwest to south. Warm air advection in the layer is expected to cause frozen precipitation to melt above the surface, resulting in sleet and freezing rain, and with an 850mb low strengthening over the Missouri Bootheel on Sunday, 850mb winds will strengthen the warm nose. It looks like most areas south of the parkways will see a mix to a complete change over to rain for the whole day. With surface temperatures already below freezing, 0.5 to 0.75" of icing is possible for the Lake Cumberland area and southwest towards Nashville.

Sunday night, as the 850mb low crosses through Ohio, cold air advection will return to the level, changing precipitation back to all snow, but with the system moving off to the east, only a half of an inch or less of additional snowfall is expected over the CWA.

Overall, snowfall totals were reduced. The heaviest snow totals are expected along and north of the Ohio River in southern Indiana towards Cincinnati/northern Kentucky. Ice values were increased over the Lake Cumberland to Nashville area with most icing expected to stay south of the parkways.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 411 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

===================================================================== Bitterly Cold Temperatures Expected Early Next Week

=====================================================================

After the winter storm clears the region Sunday night, the main weather impact will shift to bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills as arctic high pressure sinks into the south central US. While skies should be clearing during the day on Monday, persistent 10-15 mph W/NW winds will cause temperatures to struggle to reach double digits, with daytime (!) wind chill values likely between 5 below and 5 above zero.

The peak of the cold air is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, with cold temperatures being amplified in areas with a deep snowpack. Ensemble probabilities of low temperatures below zero are roughly 60-80% across the area, with probabilities of low temperatures below -10 ranging from 10-30%. The only limiting factor for colder temperatures Tuesday morning will be strengthening SW winds as a clipper system moves well NW of the region. However, stronger winds would only lead to colder wind chills, with -10 to - 20 minimum wind chills likely Monday night. As the previous forecaster mentioned, we're almost certainly looking at reaching cold weather advisory criteria, and extreme cold warning-level wind chills are possible.

Temperatures will moderate during the day on Tuesday thanks to SW winds, but only into the low-to-mid 20s. No significant warm up is expected through all of next week as upper shortwaves dive across the eastern half of North America as the polar vortex remains weak and allows for subsequent intrusions of arctic air. There has now been a persistent signal in medium-range guidance that a stronger shortwave Wednesday into Wednesday night may bring a clipper system into the Ohio Valley. While total QPF amounts with this system are very modest (most progs show only a few hundredths), the very cold air mass would allow for elevated snow-liquid ratios that could support light accumulating snow. Not a major winter storm by any means, but something to look out for during the middle of next week. Beyond this system, more dry and cold weather is expected for the end of the week, with another shot at sub-zero low temperatures possible Thursday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 653 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today, a winter storm will begin to move into the region. Impacts should be expected. Snow is expected to begin later this morning and become heavier this afternoon and evening. Tonight as a low level jet brings warmer air into the mid-levels, a transition to snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain is expected to expand northward reaching BWG by 4-6z. This transition is expected to continue to the north affecting RGA and possibly LEX later in the night. Lowering ceilings and reduced visibilities should be expected as the system advances into the Lower Ohio Valley.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.