textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Colder weather for Sunday and into early next week. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday only in the 30s.

* Light rain showers are expected for this evening, mainly along and east of I-65.

* On Sunday, light snow showers will move through the northeastern portion of the region. A few snow squalls may be possible over the far Bluegrass. In a snow squall, visibilities will drop quickly, winds may gust up to 35mph, and snow accumulations of 1 inch will be possible.

* Temperatures begin to warm up next week, before we see another chance for showers on Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 851 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mid-level wave continues to move through eastern Kentucky this evening. There was quite a bit of low-level dry air in place which allowed precipitation to evaporate before reaching the surface. However, a band of rain/sleet and a little snow moved through the region with this feature. The remaining precipitation continues to move east out of the forecast area and skies have cleared out west of the I-65 corridor. Clearing will continue to work east toward the I-75 corridor and most locations look to become mostly clear by midnight. Where skies have cleared, temperatures have fallen into the lower 30s. Underneath the ongoing cloud cover, temps are still in the lower 40s. For the overnight period, quiet weather is expected with low temps dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 348 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

===== Tonight =====

Currently, there is a band of light to moderate precipitation moving over central IL and western IN. Temperatures have risen into the 40s and 50s area wide ahead of this shortwave meaning we anticipate that as this approaches, most should fall as rain. As the evening progresses and temperatures fall, along with CAA aloft, there may be areas that mix with snow or have a brief changeover to all snow as the precipitation moves eastward. Any snow that does fall will be light and with the warm temperatures we've had, no accumulations are expected. However, temperatures tonight will dip below freezing, meaning anything left on sidewalks, roads or bridges have the potential to refreeze, mostly concerned for overpasses. Clouds clear overnight after this shortwave passes through with light winds and lows in the low to mid 20s area wide.

===== Sunday - Monday =====

Heading into tomorrow, a deep trough moves south and east of our area, somewhere east of I-65, bringing in some strong CAA in all levels of the atmosphere. Simultaneously, a surface low forms just off the east coast and is expected to rapidly intensify and mature, interacting with the upstream trough. As a result, the pressure gradient at lower levels will strengthen, increasing winds at the surface as well. Gusts could range from 25-35 mph at times during the day. With the strong CAA from the north, high temperatures may struggle to get above freezing, expecting low to mid 30s across the area.

Additionally, as this trough swings through, NNW flow will be feeding in moisture from Lake Michigan, creating multiple snow showers that will move through the area Sunday morning after 12Z, with on and off snow showers lasting throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The pattern of the deepening low off the east coast promotes prolonged NNW flow from Lake Michigan, meaning that there will be a chance for some areas to receive these on and off snow showers well into Monday. There may be a lull in activity in the overnight hours heading in to Monday morning when what little surface instability we have will be removed after the sun sets. However, the snow showers should return again, especially in the most northeastern parts of the CWA, mainly north of I-64 and east of I-65. According to current trends, snow squalls may also be possible in our farthest northeastern communities as well, noting from model soundings the steep lapse rates and expected strong and gusty winds Sunday/Monday. Forecast confidence for this specific phenomena is still somewhat low, so this will require further monitoring. If nothing else, expect passing snow showers with northeastern areas receiving anything from a dusting up to an inch in isolated areas, with only flurries if anything south of I-64 and west of I-65.

Low temperatures heading into Monday morning will be chilly, ranging from the upper teens to low 20s. Strong NNW flow all day Monday means highs with mostly cloudy skies will struggle once again to get above freezing ranging from the low to mid 30s. Gusty winds are still possible Monday from the strong, albeit weakening, pressure gradient, ranging from 20-25 mph. Southwestern communities should remain dry on Monday, and may even see peaks of sun. Northeastern communities are expected to see more chances of snow showers and gusty winds, especially if any snow showers that do form can mix down stronger winds above the surface. Eventually, the surface low and upper trough pull away towards the east, and winds calm Monday night, with temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 348 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Monday - Wednesday...

As the nor'easter pushes NE off the coast of New England, the pressure gradient over the lower Ohio Valley will begin to slacken. Thus, winds will relax and the moisture fetch off of Lake Michigan will subside. PoPs will diminish Monday morning. As the parent trough pushes east of the region, clouds will steadily thin from SW to NE. Surface high pressure will move over the region, helping to keep conditions dry. Ridging aloft will work east and weaken over the region, which will increase temperatures into the mid-to-upper 50s by Wednesday.

Low temperatures on Monday will be in the upper teens and low 20s and winds will be breezy. This will bring morning wind chills into the upper single digits and low teens across the region. Tuesday morning will be chilly, with temperatures in the mid to upper teens.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

A clipper trough will quickly move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday night. Moisture will likely be limited and best forcing will remain to the north. At this time, best chances for precip through Wednesday morning will be over the northeastern half of the region.

We will remain under northwestern flow, where another deeper trough is expected swing through the Ohio Valley on Thursday night into Friday. This wave will develop a low pressure system over the Ohio Valley. A strong LLJ will bring better moisture to ample forcing, which will bring another chance for showers.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Mid-level disturbance continues to move eastward across the region. This feature will bring some light precipitation in the form of light rain, sleet, and light snow to the eastern terminals this evening. Precipitation has already moved east of BWG/KHNB/SDF and some light RASN will be possible at LEX/RGA through about 22/02Z or so. After that, skies will temporarily clear out for the overnight period. However, toward sunrise, clouds will move into the region from the northwest with another round of snow showers expected. Current data suggests cigs will likely fall to MVFR levels after 22/12Z and continue through the afternoon hours. Winds will be quite gusty during the day on Sunday with sustained northwest winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 23-28kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.