textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues through Friday, with chilly nights and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning (except Wednesday), mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (60- 70%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Now - Friday Night...

Dry conditions will persist through the entire work week as high pressure and upper ridging dominate the pattern. The upper ridge does break down briefly mid week, and a weak and moisture starved shortwave passes through the flow early Wednesday. However, with dry air in place doubt we'd see more than an increase in mid to upper level sky cover with this feature.

Should mostly be a persistence forecast this week, outside of slightly warmer temps by the end of the week thanks to better SW flow on the back side of retreating surface high pressure. Highs will mostly be in the mid 70s through Wednesday, and then in the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Chilly mornings will continue with lows mostly in the 40s. One exception will be early Wednesday morning when the increased cloud cover associated with the aforementioned shortwave will keep temps a bit milder in the low 50s. In addition to the chilly temperatures, river valley fog will be prominent each morning outside of Wednesday morning. Again, because of notably increased sky cover.

The main themes during this prolonged dry stretch continue to be worsening drought conditions, and any fire weather concerns. A call with fire partners today revealed the small fuels are still not all that concerning given good RH recovery each night. That being said, another week of drying combined with slightly better wind flow late week could lead to a few wildfire concerns.

Saturday - Monday...

The upper ridge axis and surface high pressure shift eastward going into the weekend, and focus will shift upstream to western and central CONUS troughing and potentially multiple strong shortwaves ejecting out. Our earliest rain chances (fairly low) arrive on Saturday, however the better chances will be Saturday night into Sunday as the lead shortwave ejects out. Still not a lot of clarity with this system, but again, there has been a consistent signal for precip chances at least in the likely range 60-80%. Could have a brief lull in active weather on Monday between the lead wave and another potent anomaly set to arrive more in the mid week time frame. Overall, temps trend a bit cooler through this period given the increased cloud cover and precipitation, however we will likely still be above normal for this time of year in the low 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

High pressure continues to control the region and will continue to bring prevailing VFR conditions. The one exception will be the continued brief fog issues at BWG/HNB that we've seen each morning. Not going to mention in the TAF yet as it is erratic and short-lived but will note that this is likely to happen again tonight. Will continue with some upper clouds through the period with light SE winds tonight going to SSE winds on Tuesday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.