textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect cool nights and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (70- 80%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will remain in control of the eastern CONUS for the upcoming work week, and likely into the first part of the weekend. The upper ridge does briefly break down later Wednesday into Thursday, with a weak and moisture starved cold front stalling to our north across the southern Great Lakes before it gets into the region. The upper ridge does briefly build back in for Friday, however it will be more progressive in nature. This will allow for some precipitation chances (20% Saturday) returning for the second half of the weekend, more likely Sunday (70-80%) as a shortwave ejects out of the central CONUS.

Under the persistently dry conditions, expect temperatures mostly in the mid 70s early this week. Then by later this week, highs look to climb more into the upper 70s with the aid of some southerly surface flow. Increased sky cover and precipitation through the weekend should knock highs back down into the low and mid 70s, however these values are still above normal for this time of year. As has been the consistent theme, look for some chilly morning with lows mostly in the 40s through the work week. By the weekend, increase moisture (dew points) and increasing sky cover will allow for more mild lows in the 50s. We'll also likely continue to see some river valley fog each morning.

Will continue to highlight the prolonged stretch of dry weather also coming with a couple of concerns. 1.) Worsening drought conditions over the entire area, and 2.) Perhaps a few fire weather concerns later this week as small fuels continue to cure and we get some slightly better boundary layer winds. At the very least, these conditions may just provide good conditions for some prescribed burns, but will have to make sure we don't run into a few more wildfire issues by late week. For now, good overnight recovery of RH values has been mitigating a faster small fuels drying out trend.

There remains a consistent signal for a more active stretch of weather going into early November, however individual details remain quite inconsistent with respect to the overall pattern. Timing, strength, and placement of individual shortwaves passing through the more progressive flow will remain in question for now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR will continue to prevail as high pressure remains in control. Only issues are the erratic wind directions that come with stagnant airmasses. Variable winds late this afternoon will likely go calm overnight or very light out of the ESE to SE. Tomorrow brings a light SW wind along with some patchy/brief fog chances at HNB/or BWG. A few upper clouds will also be noted.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.