textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* The first part of the workweek will be dry, with chilly mornings in the 30s/low 40s and mild afternoons in the 60s.

* Rain chances return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves through the region, though it is not expected to be a big rain maker.

* There is an outside chance for our first snow flurries of the season if enough moisture sticks around the area late Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Upper-air analysis indicates the region is sitting under a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft with a slight northwesterly flow component. The polar jet extends through the Ohio Valley, leaving diffuse high pressure at the surface with clear skies.

Dry and Mild through Tuesday:

The above pattern will persist through Tuesday, allowing for the continuation of dry weather and seasonable (if not a bit above- average) afternoon temperatures. Look for highs in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s to upper 30s areawide.

Precipitation Chances Wednesday through Friday:

Ensembles depict general agreement in digging a series of phasing shortwaves through the eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Cluster analysis suggests the greatest divergence among ensemble members is in the timing and speed of these impulses. The associated surface low is progged to deepen as it transits the Ohio Valley, dragging a well defined cold front to its south along with it. The southerly return flow ahead of this front will be brief and limited, resulting in only modest moisture advection into the region. Supportive upper- level dynamics and ample lift along the front provide high confidence in rain chances (70-90%) across the forecast area, but the forecasted quick pace of the front and lack of deep moisture will limit total accumulations. For reference, NBM probabilities of receiving at least 0.10 inches of QPF are between 50-75% across the area but drop to less than 25% for half an inch. Rain chances increase from west to east beginning Wednesday afternoon, are highest Wednesday evening, and decrease Thursday morning. It's possible some very light precipitation persists across eastern Kentucky through the day Thursday in the vicinity of the low, but additional accumulations appear minimal.

Furthermore, if enough moisture can stick around into Thursday night or Friday morning, temperatures right around the freezing mark could support a few non-accumulating flurries in this area. With northerly winds and strong cold air advection on the back side of the low, this occurrence is not uncommon. A lot of pieces have to come together for this scenario to actually manifest, though, so confidence remains limited at this time.

Much Colder Thursday into the Weekend:

As previously mentioned, a much colder airmass will take hold behind the rain chances on Thursday as the polar jet sinks southward over the eastern CONUS. Latest NBM percentile data depict a clear dropoff in both high and low temperatures from Wednesday to Thursday with small (3-4 degrees) interquartile spreads. That is, there is high confidence in temperatures 10-15 degrees colder over a 24-hr period. Friday appears to be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the 40s and overnight minimums in the upper 20s to low 30s. Ensemble probabilities of temperatures at or below the freezing mark range between 75-95% areawide Friday night into Saturday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is the potential for fog to develop near HNB and BWG, however confidence was too low to include in the current TAF package. Winds will be light and variable tonight before increasing to 6-8 kt out of the SW by Tuesday afternoon. Winds will taper off after sunset on Tuesday, prevailing out of the SSW.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.