textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Sunny, clear skies continue today into tonight ahead of the weekend system.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall over central and southern Kentucky. 0.75-1.50 inches of rain is expected during this time.

* Drier conditions and a warming trend for the beginning of next week, before an active pattern sets up.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Surface high pressure continues to linger over the region today keeping skies clear and dry. Winds will remain light with a ESE component through the day. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach the mid 50s today across most of the area, while high 50s can be found in the southern most counties.

The surface high pressure will start to move east out of the region tonight. Winds will begin to have more of a southerly component as an upper level ridge moves into the Ohio Valley. Mid and high level clouds will start to move in by 10z from the SW ahead of the weekend system. Cloud bases will remain 20k ft and higher across the area. Low temperatures are looking to drop into the high 20s and mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

===== Saturday - Sunday =====

Deep troughing is moving over the southern coast of California and will traverse the southern CONUS through the weekend. This trough will develop a low pressure system over the southern Plains. This system will strengthen and mature as it reaches the Tennessee Valley and passes to the south of the region.

Most of the day Saturday will remain dry. Mid-upper clouds will build into region as the low pressure system approaches. Aloft, ridging will build and increase temperatures into the mid-to-upper 50s and touching 60 in some southern areas.

Late Saturday afternoon and into the evening, a LLJ will enter from the SW and usher in better moisture. PWATs will increase over Kentucky to 1-1.25 inches. Isentropic lift over the warm front and the LLJ will promote moderate to heavy rainfall (at times). Rain chances will increase from west to east Saturday night and taper similarly Sunday afternoon.

QPF is forecasted to be up to an inch along and north of I-64 and 1- 1.5 inches south of I-64. Some areas in far southern Kentucky may see slightly higher totals. Ponding in low areas will be possible. River ensembles continue to show little impact from this rainfall. Though with saturated grounds and good run-off conditions, rivers will rise and some may touch Action Level, but remaining below Minor flooding.

===== Next Week =====

Surface high pressure and ridging will be the main features Sunday night through Tuesday. This will keep conditions dry and temperatures warming each day. Highs will be in the 60s and lows in the 40s during this timeframe.

There has been a consistent signal for deep troughing and a low pressure system to move northeast across the CONUS, passing to the north of the region. Ridging will likely amplify over the region on Wednesday. At the same time, a strong LLJ will move in from the west. These features will bring a WAA regime into the region. Temperatures may be well above normal in the upper 60s and low 70s. Currently looks like most of the rain will remain north of the region on Wednesday, though the northern half of the region may see some isolated-scattered showers. Additionally, Wednesday looks like a windy day with wind gusts up to 30mph.

We will likely remain under a messy pattern aloft where another system will take a similar path across the country, bringing another shot at warmer temperatures and rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 555 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunny, clear skies will continue today across the region into tonight. Light southerly winds will also continue ahead of the weekend system. Tonight, starting around 09z, a mid-level cloud deck will move into the area from the NW. VFR conditions are expected for all sites through tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.