textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and storms are likely (50-80% chance) Friday into early Saturday. There is a low, but non-zero chance for strong storms producing gusty winds Friday afternoon and evening.

* Severe Weather potential for Monday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves through the region. The setup is favorable for severe storms, though confidence in details remain low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This afternoon, fair-weather cu, S/SW winds, and warm temperatures are noted across southern IN and central KY, with broad anticyclonic flow present across the southeast US. Another day of deep mixing of the boundary layer has resulted in dewpoints dropping into the mid- to-upper 40s and low 50s across the area, with the tongue of higher llvl moisture still west of the Mississippi at this hour. Through tonight, no significant weather is expected across the area. Diurnal cu should dissipate around sunset, with mostly clear skies expected this evening and tonight. Light south winds overnight should keep temperatures mild, with most locations only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s Friday morning.

Late tonight into Friday morning, a line of thunderstorms will race across MO/IL, with the showers/storms weakening as they outrun the pool of greatest instability across the Ozarks. A few rain showers may try to develop along and west of I-65 as the line falls apart. As the upper-level shortwave lifts well to the north and west Friday morning, the sfc cold front will lag behind and start to weaken, with overall forcing for new convective development diminishing as it approaches the Ohio Valley Friday. On top of this, the preceding dry air mass in place this afternoon will take some time to saturate/destabilize, especially given modest low-level jet forcing and related moisture advection. Still, we should see sfc dewpoints rise into the low 60s along and west of I-65 during the day on Friday, allowing for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to be in place by mid- afternoon. The strongest frontal forcing and greatest coverage of showers and storms that re-develop Friday afternoon is expected across Indiana, with more isolated/scattered development expected across Kentucky. While there is a reasonably high chance (50-70%) of showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening along and west of I- 65, the overall severe potential is expected to be limited given unidirectional shear profiles, weak deep-layer shear (< 20 kt), and only modest instability. If any stronger storms do develop, gusty winds would be the main hazard in addition to heavy rain and lightning. With showers and storms likely to weaken as they encounter drier air east of I-65, many areas across east-central and southeast KY are likely to remain dry Friday afternoon.

Outside of the storm chances, a mix of sun and clouds is expected on Friday, with cloud coverage increasing from west to east through the day. High temperatures should warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, with the highest temperatures generally expected east of I-65. Winds should be breezy out of the SW, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph likely through the day.

Friday night, given limited overall forcing, precipitation coverage should diminish after sunset. With that being said, given an increasingly moist lower troposphere with the cold front slowing over the area, scattered showers should continue into Saturday morning, especially across Kentucky, with drier air beginning to filter into southern IN by early Saturday morning. Mild low temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s are expected Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

--Saturday and Sunday--

Lingering rain showers Saturday morning will be possible as the Friday system moves through the area. There is a chance (20-30%) for isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening as a shortwave ejects NE from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley. Potential for these thunderstorms will depend on the prior system, therefore confidence is low. A ridge will then move over the region for a dry and warm Sunday with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s with partial cloudy skies.

--Monday--

A shortwave that will move onshore over California will move NE into the Great Plains early next week. An associated surface low pressure system will develop and move into the Great Lakes region on Monday. A warm front will push through the Ohio Valley Monday morning, causing the warm sector of the system to overspread the region during the day on Monday. Moisture will be advected from the Gulf rising dewpoints Monday in the lower to mid 60s. A LLJ will stretch SW to NE providing 40-50kts of low level shear and could support organized storm structures. There is low confidence in timing with when storms will move into area, but generally looking at Monday afternoon and evening. A telling factor for this event will be the amount of available instability as the storms move into the area. The overall setup is favorable for severe weather in the region, however the best chances remain west of I-65 in western KY. Monitoring will continue as trends will change as we move through the weekend.

--Tuesday through Thursday--

Other than the remaining rain showers from the Monday system, early next week should by fairly dry. Cooler temperatures are expected after the cold front moves through on Tuesday with max temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Rain chances look to return Thursday for a potential cooler and wet start to May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This afternoon, breezy S/SW winds should continue across all forecast sites. Sustained winds of 10-15 kt with a few gusts to around 20 kt are expected through 23-00Z. A daytime 7-8k ft cu field should continue this afternoon before dissipating this evening. Tonight, VFR conditions should continue with light south winds. Friday morning, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west. Increasing low-to-mid level clouds are expected toward the end of the forecast period, with SW winds of 10-15 kt and gusts of 18-25 kt expected during peak heating on Friday. By the end of the current TAF period, a few showers and storms will be possible at SDF/HNB/BWG; however, expected coverage is low enough to withhold mention from the current forecast.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.