textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Another round of strong to severe storms is expected this evening and into the overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main severe threats.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average through next weekend for late April/early May.

* Mostly dry weather is expected after Wednesday, with a slight chance for light rain on Friday evening and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A line of storms is pushing through the region at this hour. The cold front behind the line will begin to stall this morning and park near the Ohio River for the remainder of the day. As the line of storms continues southeast, it will move away from the better forcing along the front and begin to weaken. Though vorticity shedding and a shortwave will continue along the upper ridging into the Appalachians, which will help to maintain storms. Once storms reach the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways, we are expecting storms to become more elevated in nature. Though, gusty to damaging winds will still be possible until the line exits the region. The line is expected to exit the region around 6AM EDT.

Through the afternoon, we will see some clearing (after a morning of lower stratus) sky cover and slightly increased heights over the region. This will help temperatures to increase into the upper 70s and low 80s over Kentucky. Southwesterly surface flow will help to keep dew points into the mid-upper 60s. We will remain mostly dry through the day today, as forcing is lacking.

By the late afternoon/evening, SBCAPE ahead of the stationary front will increase to 1600-2000 J/kg, PWATs to 1.6-1.8 inches, and deep layer shear around 50kts. A fast-moving shortwave will move northeast from the Ozarks and bring an MCS through the region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards with this event. Greatest threat area will be over southern Kentucky. Storms will approach the region around 7-8pm EDT (6-7pm CDT). The convective environment will weaken beyond 6Z and storms are expected to weaken.

Additionally, a surface low pressure system will undergo cyclogenesis as it passes over the region, this will help to keep showers and storms through Wednesday morning. Showers will push off to the northeast late Wednesday morning. The cold front that has been stalled along the Ohio River will push through the region and bring cooler and drier air with it.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

===== Wednesday - Saturday =====

Despite some lingering rain showers Wednesday morning, everyone dries out by midday with clouds slowly thinning and moving out to the east in the evening. Tuesday night's shortwave will quickly eject towards the northeast and ushering in a trailing cold front during the day. Dry and cooler NW flow will dominate in the afternoon with light winds all day for everyone leading to a rather comfy day. Afternoon highs range in the mid 60s to low 70s. Clouds could stick around long enough to keep lows a little warmer in southern areas, though lows across the CWA Wednesday night will be in the low to upper 40s.

A broad trough over southern Canada will keep ushering in cooler air reinforcing the cooling trend for this week at least through Saturday. So by Thursday afternoon, clouds will clear later in the morning before increasing later in the afternoon. Highs are cooler in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the low to upper 40s again.

For Friday, temperatures will be nearly the same in the 60s with increasing clouds. A lower level disturbance might bring in a few showers though any rainfall from this seems to be very light and unlikely (20%). However, this will usher in some more cold air from a weak cold front passing through and drop temperatures a few more degrees Saturday. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper 30s across our northern counties.

By Saturday morning, clouds stick around as a low pressure glides across the southeast US. We expect conditions to remain dry albeit for a few rain showers in our far southern border counties that might get a glancing blow from this storm. Should it track a little further north or Friday's weak cold front fail to clear our CWA, light rain would be more likely but for now we're keeping PoPs low near 30% near the Lake Cumberland area and dry weather for everyone north of the Cumberland Parkway. The coldest lows of the week will be on Saturday night with a few northeastern areas having a low chance of frost early Sunday morning though confidence is low at this point but will be monitored (<20% of frost in NE areas)

Beyond Saturday, the parent trough over southern Canada will begin to retreat towards the northeast. This will allow more SW flow to return with highs raising back up into the upper 60s and 70s early next week. Some signals of a shortwave moving through the plains could bring in more rain Monday afternoon, but rainfall totals this far out look to be low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A strong line of thunderstorms is currently located along the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways and moving southeast. This line is capable of strong winds and very heavy rain, bringing conditions down to IFR levels. After the storms pass through, light rain will linger for another 2 hours. CIGs will also begin to fall to low-end MVFR and possibly high-end IFR. These CIGs will last through mid- late morning. CIGs will begin to mix out and we will see VFR conditions by the early afternoon. In the evening, another wave of showers and storms will move through the region and last through the overnight hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.