textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* This evening and tonight, a weak cold front could bring an isolated shower or storm, mainly across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

* Tuesday, overall drier and hotter conditions arrive as an upper ridge builds. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon.

* Heat remains through at least Thursday this week, before chances for showers and storms enter the forecast at the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The cold front will move through the region this evening. Very isolated showers will be possible over southern Indiana. Otherwise, tonight we will see temperatures cool down into the upper 50s and low 60s.

On Monday and into Monday night, surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will move east and southerly flow will return to the region. High temperatures will be in the 80s, and most likely the coolest day of this week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

On Tuesday, ridging will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will keep pushing east, which will promote southwesterly flow into the region. A low pressure system will move through southern Canada, which will tighten the pressure gradient over the region. Breezy winds, increased moisture, and hot temperatures are expected for Tuesday. Peak heat indices will be 97- 100F (in the Bluegrass) and 100-106F elsewhere. A heat advisory has been issued for the western half of the region for Tuesday.

Similar conditions will last through at least mid week. High temperatures will remain in the mid 90s through Thursday. A heat advisory will likely need to be continued through mid week. Given the time of year, these temperatures and heat indices are unusual (about 10-12 degrees above normal). HeatRisk is expected to be Major (level 3/4) Tuesday through at least Thursday. NBM (and associated guidance) is likely not handling temperatures as well, given decent southwesterly flow and the beginnings of the transition season. Therefore, have bumped temperatures bit a bit, specifically overnight. Looking at records, we may approach both high temperatures and warm mins this week.

Moving into Friday and the weekend, ridging remains over the southern CONUS, though multiple shortwaves will attempt to move across the region. This would bring isolated to scattered showers and storms and slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening and likely through the whole TAF period. Winds will be gradually shifting from the NW to the N in the next few hours across LEX-RGA-BWG, eventually becoming a light NE wind for all by Monday morning. Passing SCT-FEW clouds will move through overnight but remain at VFR heights. Mostly clear skies by morning will prevail with likely enough wind to prevent fog formation. NE winds and SKC-FEW clouds at VFR heights will linger through Monday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KYZ023>030-038-045-053-061>064-070>076. IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.