textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cloudy conditions are expected for much of the day. However, some partial clearing is expected in the afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower 70s.

* Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow areas west of I- 65 to cool into the lower 50s. East of I-65, lows will cool into the mid-upper 40s.

* Tranquil weather will continue through the weekend. A brief warmup will be seen early next week before the next weather system arrives around mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Stubborn low-level cloud cover continues to blanket the region this morning. Temperatures were generally in the lower 60s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Readings across southern Kentucky were slightly milder with mid 60s being reported. For the remainder of the overnight, low-level cloud cover with areas of mist and drizzle are expected and overnight lows will bottom out in the low-mid 60s.

Moving into the daytime hours, inverted surface trough axis will continue to push off to the east while a closed upper low moves eastward over the Mid-Atlantic. This morning will feature cloudy skies a low-level stratus will continue across the region. However, during the afternoon hours, diurnal heating may be strong enough to help mix out the inversion aloft and allow the clouds to start to break up. Should this scenario play out accordingly, we'll see temps warm into the lower 70s this afternoon. On the other hand, if mixing is not as strong as the models suggest, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in the north and around 70 in the south.

For tonight, model time-height progs show low-level moisture scouring out with skies becoming mostly clear during the overnight period. If good clearing occurs, we'll see temperatures fall into the lower 50s along and west of I-65. East of I-65, lows in the upper 40s will be possible. The best chance of good clearing and radiational cooling will be across the northeast Bluegrass where lows in the lower 40s could be attainable.

On Friday, mid-level ridging to the west of us will start to gradually build eastward. We'll have a northerly flow aloft with the column continuing to dry out. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs topping out in the 72-77 degree range. Another cool night of temperatures is expected for Friday night with lows in the lower-mid 40s over the Bluegrass and in the lower 50s in the I- 65 corridor and points west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Saturday through Wednesday...

Moving into the weekend, a very blocky upper level pattern is forecast over the eastern CONUS with a large ridge axis extending from the Gulf northward into the Great Lakes. A closed upper level low will be found across New England with an early fall Nor'easter bringing rain and winds to much of central and northern New England. Locally, we'll be under the influence of the upper ridge for Saturday and into Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the in the 71-76 range with overnight lows cooling into the upper 40s in the east with lower-mid 50s in the west.

Moving into next week, the upper pattern will start to shift a bit as the closed low over New England lifts northeastward into SE Canada. Out across the western US, a fairly strong trough axis will move into the four corners region. Model solution divergence really starts to show up by Tue/Wed as the GFS solutions maintain a more progressive flow pattern with the upper trough pushing into the Ohio Valley by mid-week. On the other hand the Canadian and Euro solutions appear to want to close off the trough axis into an upper low and then spin it slowly eastward. The GFS solution would argue for shower/storm chances to arrive by Wednesday, while the Euro/Canadian solutions would result in drier conditions across the region. For now, will continue to use the multi-model consensus here which will keep the forecast dry for Mon/Tue and introduce some chance PoPs in for Wednesday.

Temperatures will continue to moderate through the period with highs on Monday warming into the mid-upper 70s with some lower 80s over southern Kentucky. Depending on the eventual evolution of the upper level pattern, a warm shot of air will arrive on Tuesday with temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s in across southern IN and northern KY with upper 80s across southern KY. Similar readings are expected on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For the overnight period, a light north-northeast flow will be seen at the surface with cigs remaining in the low MVFR to IFR range. Some tempo drops to LIFR will be possible. Areas of light drizzle and mist will also continue through sunrise. Winds will pick up Wednesday morning and begin to shift to the east in the late morning and into the afternoon. Breaks in the cloud cover are expected in the afternoon with cigs at the terminals expected to return to VFR.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.