textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until the first few days of November (11/1-2).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

This Weekend...

High pressure centered over New England and strong upper ridging will keep dry weather in place through the weekend. Expect mostly clear/sunny skies outside of some occasional upper sky cover. High temperatures will remain above normal in the low and mid 70s. Meanwhile, chilly lows still anticipated each morning in the low and mid 40s for most. Expect some river valley fog each morning as well, as has been the case all week.

This Week Into Next Weekend...

Seasonably strong upper ridging and surface high pressure hold over the area through this week. This will keep dry conditions in place with temperatures continuing to be above normal. In fact with normals falling into the low and mid 60s by late this week, actual temperatures in the mid and upper 70s late week could be considered well above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will continue to be chilly given good radiational cooling with values mostly in the 40s to low 50s.

Despite the quiet weather, a couple of concerns will be noted given the prolonged dry stretch. 1.) Worsening drought conditions. No real surprise here as precip deficits continue to grow. 2.) Fire weather as we head into late week. Haven't had a whole lot of issues yet due to good RH recovery at night and overall pretty light winds. However steady SSW winds will take hold from Wednesday onward as high pressure moves from eastern Canada through New England and allows for a little bit tighter pressure gradient over our region. This may create some good burning opportunities, or in area that have seen small fuels get too dry, could contribute to some sporadic wildfire concerns.

The first part of the weekend does look dry, however a much more active pattern could arrive for the late weekend into early next week time frame. Not a real consistent signal to get many details yet, but the general idea is that upper ridging will give way to some potentially strong troughing across the western and central CONUS. Potential for a stronger storm system into early next week does appear possible, although a lot of details and time to work through first.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this forecast cycle as high pressure remains in control of the area. Any notable gradient today will be light out of the east. Tomorrow, a light S to SSE wind should take hold after mid to late morning. There is data suggest a brief period of fog around sunrise at LEX/RGA however will stick with a persistence forecast here and mainly expect valley fog. May see a few high clouds at times, otherwise expect mostly sunny/clear skies.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.