textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A cold front will bring a line of showers and storms through the area this afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.5-1.0" expected.

* Chilly Easter morning and cool high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Cold nights ahead through Tuesday night next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

We'll continue to see a quiet and mild overnight with variable upper sky cover and temperatures only bottoming in the mid and upper 60s thanks to a steady SSW wind. A strengthening surface low currently over eastern IA will steadily push into the western Great Lakes region by this afternoon, ahead of a potent shortwave trough over much of the central CONUS. The trailing cold front will sweep across our area later this afternoon into this evening ahead of the sharp trough axis, sparking widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorm potential as well. We'll stay firmly in the warm sector of this system, with temperatures expected to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s before the showers, storms, and cold front arrive. One exception will be our far NW CWA where only brief low to mid 70s are expected before precip arrives.

Look for gusty SSW to SW winds to pick up by mid to late morning in response to the strengthening surface low, and increasing low level jetting in the 30-35 knot range. The low level jet response is expected to persist through the day as the right entrance region of a 100-110 knot upper jet slides into position over our region. Given the mid and upper level forcing combined with the notable surface cold front, do think some shallow and thin line convection will be noted at times. Soundings are interesting to look at with some positive area between the LFC and 500mb, however a subsidence inversion is noted at H5 and above (likely due to some influence from the upper ridge still trying to hold over our area). We'll also have some steep low level lapse rates with somewhat dry lower levels promoting an "inverted V" look and slightly higher DCAPE values. Given the 30-40 knots of LLJ momentum and the low level thermodynamic profile, do think some of this stronger momentum can make it to the surface with more robust convection. As a result, do expect we could see a lot of 40-50 mph gusts with the stronger reflectivity segments. Perhaps some pockets of localized damaging wind could occur as well, especially far north and east where SB CAPE values may approach 750-1000 J/KG with longer residence time in the clear. It honestly may be tough to get lightning strikes due to the stunted vertical depth of the convection, but nevertheless it is still a convective process and the SPC Marginal Risk makes sense. Certainly, wouldn't want any higher messaging as it appears that most, if not all, of the potential will be sub-severe.

The latest HREF paintballs still suggest the most likely time for the strongest convection will be Noon EDT across our NW CWA, exiting sometime around 9 or 10 PM in our eastern CWA. A light rain shield will likely persist behind the leading edge and behind the surface cold front as that right entrance region of the upper jet slides in. So, rainfall could linger into the overnight a good bit, even though the surface front will have passed. Should be dry in our east by sunrise Easter morning, but may have some wet easter eggs left over. Overall rainfall totals should mostly be in the .5" to 1" range given the progressive nature of the system. We should be able to handle these values, but will watch for some brief intense rain give seasonably high PWAT values and some convective component.

Temperatures do look like they will fall off enough before Midnight Sunday to preserve the warm min records in jeopardy, but we'll continue to monitor that potential until it is a done deal. Speaking of that, several warm mins did indeed fall for Friday April 3, along with the record Max T at BWG.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Sunday - Tuesday Night...

We'll be clear of rain by Easter morning with the cold front clean through our area, and the upper trough axis also passing. This will set the stage for a more prolonged period of dry weather, and also notably cooler conditions for much of the week ahead. Cool Canadian high pressure at the surface will combine with unremarkable NW flow aloft to give us the dry pattern through early to mid week. The big story here will be the cooler temperatures, and potential for some frost or even freeze headlines across our NE half or so of the CWA. Using NBM temperatures below 35F as a proxy for frost formation, here are some probabilities for certain locations Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. If your area is not listed, assume that probabilities are too low to mention:

City Area Monday AM Tuesday AM Wednesday AM

Jasper, IN 20% 25% 25% Salem, IN 25% 75% 60% Madison, IN 20% 80% 70% Louisville, KY 15% 25% 20% Frankfort, KY 30% 50% 70% Lexington, KY 20% 55% 70% Cynthiana, KY 40% 70% 90% Richmond, KY 20% 25% 60%

Anything over 50% you can assume there is at least a decent chance for a Frost Advisory headline. The best chance for any Freeze headlines would be mainly east and northeast of a Salem, IN to Madison, IN to Richmond, KY line on Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

High temperatures will also be chilly with Sunday Max Ts in the upper 50s and low 60s despite plenty of sunshine. Monday highs recover a bit into the 60s, but Tuesday will be the coldest day of the period with highs mostly confined to the 50s.

Wednesday - Friday...

The upper flow pattern will transition to a zonal pattern by mid to late week, with surface high pressure retreating eastward and allowing for some low level return flow. This will result in a trend toward milder temperatures back into the upper 60s and low 70s by Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will be more solidly into the 70s with mostly dry conditions expected to continue. Will maintain a dry forecast through this stretch, although some data does hint at a weaker shortwave arriving by Thursday that could bring some precipitation activity into our area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR prevails the first part of this morning with mainly some scattered to broken high clouds and steady SSW surface winds around 10-15 mph. SSW to SW surface gusts pick up by mid to late morning with gradually increasing mid and upper sky cover ahead of the approaching storm system. Widespread rainfall and embedded thunderstorms will progress eastward across our TAF sites through the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Look for reduced visibilities, especially in heavier showers, and gusty SW to W winds. It is possible winds could briefly gust to 40 to 50 mph with stronger storms out of the SW or W. Highlighted the most likely time for a storm with TEMPO groups embedded within prevailing SHRA. The heaviest showers and storms will push east of LEX/RGA by late evening, with lingering light rain and MVFR ceilings lingering into the overnight. VFR conditions return pretty quickly from W to E before the pre-dawn hours, with steady WNW to NW winds continuing.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.