textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread precipitation is expected across the region today. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible this morning across portions of southern Indiana and portions of north-central and east-central Kentucky. Some minor impacts the morning commute are possible.

* Additional systems bring rain and warmer temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, with steady rain favored in our northernmost counties.

* Well above normal temperatures will persist all week, growing increasingly warmer by Thursday/Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Early morning observations reveal mostly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures ranged from the lower-mid 30s over northeastern Kentucky and in the Bluegrass region. Elsewhere, temperatures were in the upper 30s across north-central Kentucky with lower 40s located mainly south of the Cumberland Parkway region. Regional radars show precipitation moving into the region from the west ahead of an approaching mid-level trough axis. Based on observations, precipitation thus far has remained in the form of a cold rain in areas out to our west/northwest. Locally, we still are holding on to a low-level dry air layer which can be seen by the donut hole appearance of reflectivity on the KLVX 88-D. Additionally, ACARS soundings out of KSDF this morning show this dry layer as well, along with a decent warm nose approaching 7-8 degrees C over the region.

So far, the ongoing forecast remains in good shape. Mid-level trough axis to the west of the region will continue to move east while associated large precipitation shield advances eastward. Over the next few hours, the low-level dry layer will saturate down and probably wetbulb to a certain extent. Low-level warm advection in the 800-900mb layer will continue to support a warm nose aloft while low-level northeasterly flow continues to re-inforce cold advection which will allow surface temperatures to fall into the low-mid 30s.

Precipitation largely south of the I-64 corridor is expected to remain a cold rain, as warm nose aloft will prevent any frozen precipitation from reaching the ground. Temps along and just south of the I-64 corridor may decrease a bit as precipitation moves in due to wet-bulbing effects, but surface temps will likely only drop to around 33-34 degrees. Along and north of the I-64 corridor, initial precipitation will likely start off as light rain. However, wet-bulbing should allow precipitation to change over to a messy mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The amount of wintry weather and its measurable impacts will continue to depend on how much wet- bulbing we'll see and how far surface temperatures cool. As of now, still think the best chances of a slushy snowfall accumulation will be north of the I-64 corridor where a coating to an inch of snowfall may occur. Can't rule out some locally higher amounts up across maybe, Scott and Jefferson counties in southeastern Indiana over into portions of far northern Kentucky. Some freezing rain may mix in along the I-64 corridor which may lead to a light glaze of ice on exposed/elevated objects. Current road temps are in the upper 30s/lower 40s, so impacts from icing on roadways looks to be fairly limited to mainly air-exposed bridges/overpasses. However, any heavier snowfall rates that occur later this morning north of the I- 64 corridor could easily overcome these ground temps and cause a few road issues. Current Winter Weather Advisory area continues to look well placed and the highest threat of wintry weather impacts still looks to be between 5-10 AM EST. As of this writing, no changes to headlines are expected. However, we'll continue to closely monitor conditions through the remainder of the morning hours.

Impacts from this morning's wintry weather should come to an end by mid-morning as surface temperatures will warm up to well above freezing by mid-late morning. For the remainder of the day, widespread low cloud cover is expected with periods of light/moderate rain showers moving through the region. Have knocked high temperatures down a bit in the northern half of the region based on the latest guidance. Highs this afternoon across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky will likely top out in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Warmer readings will be found down south of the WK/BG Parkways where upper 40s and lower 50s are expected. Some upper 50s to near 60 degree readings will be found along the KY/TN border area.

For tonight, while mid-level trough axis moves off to the east, residual frontal boundary across southern KY/northern TN will lift back northward this evening and overnight. Warm advective scheme along the retreating front combined with some weak isentropic lift and theta-e advection should promote at least scattered showers across the region. Lows will range from the upper 30s/lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s down across southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

===== Tuesday - Wednesday =====

After the shortwave passage heading into Tuesday morning, a surface boundary will lift towards the north, aided by continuous SW flow from a ridge over the deep south and ahead of another incoming trough with enhanced SW flow on Wednesday. Before that next trough arrives, Tuesday will be warm with showers due to the SW flow at mid to lower levels along with constant isentropic lift over the surface boundary that will eventually stall just north of the Ohio, providing medium-high PoPs throughout the day, mainly in northern areas. As the surface boundary stalls near our northernmost counties, enhanced SW flow will form a band of moderate rain stalling generally along and north of Washington, Scott, and Jefferson IN counties, creating all day rain with higher rainfall totals of 0.5"-0.75" possible. Totals sharply decrease along and south of the Ohio communities where just spotty showers are expected. This is reflected in the QPF guidance as well, with these areas ranging 0.1-0.3" of rain. South of the Parkways may remain mostly cloudy and dry. Highs will be mild, though temps will be notably cooler in northern areas from increased cloud cover and more constant rain showers, with area wide highs ranging in the mid 60s to maybe even mid 70s south of the Parkways. Winds could pick up during the day from a low level jet overhead as well, though nothing more than a light breeze is expected. Overnight into Wednesday morning, lows are mild for this time of year, in the low to mid 50s.

On Wednesday morning, the upper level pattern may promote some slight ridging, further boosting SW flow at lower to mid levels. This in turn will warm highs into the low to upper 70s across the whole area. However, the surface boundary from Tuesday will still be close to our northernmost counties, with a lingering steady rain possible in the morning before showers become more off and on later in the day from slightly weakening isentropic lift and the northward progression of the surface boundary. With highs being as warm as expected, some of the passing showers could have a rumble of thunder with them from a little instability, though this chance for now seems low and isolated in a few areas. This air mass that will be in place from Wednesday and for the next several days will have dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, being a stark difference from the dry air in place from this weekend, feeling much more like Spring. Overnight the passing showers may linger, with near record high minimum temperatures possible in the upper 50s to low 60s.

===== Thursday - Friday =====

Thursday morning starts rather warm and with continued SW flow ahead of an incoming shortwave, expect warm highs for Thursday as well. Current trends from long range models are weakening this approaching shortwave as it moves to our north. Being situated in the midst of a broad ridge with no jet dynamics to sustain this shortwave, it will weaken as it moves through. Exactly how much this shortwave weakens will determine how much rain the area will receive. The current GFS run has a slightly stronger faster system with a band of showers and storms moving in from the north and west. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF has a slower, weaker system with a band of showers that may fail to move as far south as the KY/TN border. There's still a few days to iron these details out but for now, well above normal temperatures seem certain with a chance of showers and maybe a storm during the day. Lows on Thursday, especially if SW flow remains, will be mild in the upper 50s near 60.

On Friday, a more substantial trough will park itself over the US Southwest, orienting the flow from upper to low levels from the SW to NE, creating another stalled out boundary to our north and west. We will be on the warm side of this boundary with predominant SW flow again heading into the weekend. Well above temperatures are expected, possibly nearing record highs with a chance of showers or maybe a storm, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in southern areas. This SW flow pattern is expected to last at least through Saturday with above normal temperatures sounding more like a metaphorical broken record at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Cigs overnight will start off as VFR but will decrease into the MVFR range later this morning as a mid-level trough axis pushes east from Missouri. Large precipitation shield will overspread the region. Initially the precipitation will be in the form of rain, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible through the morning hours. Only BWG is expected to see plain rain with this event. Best time for wintry precip at HNB/SDF/LEX will be between 02/09-15Z. Cigs are expected to fall into the IFR range by late morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Surface winds will remain out of the northeast through the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ031>037-042-043. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ076>079-092.