textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across south-central and eastern Kentucky as a weak cold front passes through the area. The risk for severe weather is low.

* Up and down temperatures this week; however, temperatures will be slightly below normal overall.

* A chance for scattered showers and storms is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe weather is unlikely, and rainfall amounts should be light (< 0.25") in most areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 955 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The rest of the night looks to remain mostly quiet, but a cold front is expected to drop south towards the Ohio River late tonight. This could drop a sprinkle or two across southern Indiana into far north central Kentucky through the morning hours. Most in the area are expected to remain dry as model soundings show a large dry area near the surface. Winds will flip towards the north behind the front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

It is a pleasant day across the region, with temperatures in the 70s, and mostly sunny conditions. A but more cu are noted east of I- 65 this afternoon due to slightly steeper low level lapse rates, but mid-level subsidence combined with dry low levels will keep us dry through the rest of the day.

For tonight, a deepening low over Canada will rotate northeast, leading to an extensive cold front to slide southeastward through the Ohio Valley overnight. As this front slides into our area by tomorrow morning, it will be moving away from the upper level support, and also into a drier airmass with a limited moisture fetch. This will lead to limited rain chances tonight and into tomorrow morning, though should see increasing cloud cover.

The cold front will pass through our area tomorrow morning, but little to no rain is forecast due to meager moisture content and weak upper level support. However, as the front slides east of I-65 by the afternoon, it could interact with some weak instability to favor some isolated showers and storms south of the WKY/BG Pkwys. HREF has a 25% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE tomorrow afternoon for that area. The severe weather risk continues to look low due to limited buoyancy and weak low-level flow. High temps on Sunday will be tricky given the timing of the frontal passage, and will likely see a wide range in temps from northwest to southeast. Expect highs around 70 across southern IN, but close to 80 near Lake Cumberland.

By Sunday night, the front will be pushing east of the area, a compact upper jet streak will move across the Ohio Valley. With some lingering low level moisture present, plain rain showers will be possible across KY for Sunday night into Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday - Wednesday Night...

Monday morning, clouds associated with a departing cold front will push out of southern KY, with clearing skies and drier air moving in with the post-frontal air mass on Monday. A surface high pressure axis will move from NW to SE across the area Monday into Monday night, with dry conditions continuing into the day on Tuesday. Temperatures at the beginning of the week should be below normal, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning should feature the coolest temperatures in the extended forecast period, with lows in the 40s across the area. A few upper 30s will be possible in cooler spots in the Bluegrass; however, probabilities of temperatures cold enough for frost (<= 37F) are only around 10-15% at this time.

A warming trend is expected on Tuesday as sfc high pressure pushes off to the east of the Appalachians and another upper shortwave and sfc low drops from the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes. Mid- and high-level clouds should increase from the NW on Tuesday as a plume of greater moisture moves in from the SW ahead of the next system.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday, a cold front is expected to drop through the region in association with the shortwave referenced above. A byproduct of relatively limited amplitude of the upper wave, moisture return should be meager ahead of this front, with sfc dewpoints only progged to rise into the low-to-mid 50s. Further, model PW forecasts only rise to around the 50th-60th percentile of model climatology (0.9-1.1") along and ahead of the cold front. Since both moisture and instability will be limited, while scattered showers and a few storms will be possible with FROPA, not expecting a significant strong storm threat, and rainfall amounts should be less than 0.25" in most locations. With steepening lapse rates and a relatively tight pressure gradient in the vicinity of the front, Wednesday should be a windy day for May, with NBM median 24-hr maximum gusts ranging from 25-35 mph across the area. The gusts behind the front should bring another shot of cooler and drier air into the region by Wednesday night, with temperatures falling into the 40s and low 50s Thursday morning.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

After the mid-week system clears the area, quiet weather is expected to continue during the second half of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure will again move across the Ohio Valley on Thursday, moving off to the east of the area by Friday as the synoptic pattern remains progressive. While below normal temperatures are favored Wednesday night through Thursday night with the cooler air mass overhead, as upper ridging builds east of the Mississippi Valley Friday into the weekend, a warming trend is likely, with CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day probabilities of above normal temperatures increasing into the Ohio Valley.

Signals for precipitation are a bit more mixed as we head into next weekend. Overall, WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows good agreement in upper ridging over the central CONUS; however, there is more uncertainty on whether or not upper lows will be able to translate across the top of the ridge and bring chances for showers and storms into the Ohio Valley. One particularly concerning (but low confidence) forecast outcome would be stronger ridging leading to a persistent dry and hot pattern through mid-to-late May. This could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions, so we'll continue to monitor this possibility over the next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions with light winds are expected to continue through the period. A dry cold front is expected to drop south through southern Indiana into central Kentucky late tonight into tomorrow morning. This will cause winds to shift towards the north.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.