textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain chances return this evening and last through midday Thursday. Some could see light snow with the system Thursday morning with no impacts expected.

* Warmer and sunnier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Warm air advection continues to boost temperatures into the 50s this afternoon with locations across southern KY nearing 60. While radar mosaics show precipitation, give the dry low levels, most if not all of this continues to fall as virga. Dewpoints ranged from the mid/upper 20s across northern KY with most seeing Td in the 30s with low 40s working slowly northward across southern KY. This is the main challenge with the onset of precipitation later this evening.

A moisture starved cold front is currently positioned just north of the Ohio. Models continue to suggest that the low levels will remain mostly dry this evening north of the parkways with the best moisture across central and southern KY. This looks like the main area with the best chance for rain and the highest amounts of QPF.

The column will take some time to saturate with PoPs increasing from the south to the north. Locations north of the parkways towards the Ohio will take time as the cold front is expected to stall out across central KY. Will see more widespread shower activity after midnight as an upper shortwave with in the northwest flow aloft works into the region. Precipitation will fall as mainly rain but as this secondary wave arrives, there could be a brief mix or period of light snow across southern IN and along the Ohio River. Lows will range from the low/mid 30s across southern IN into the Bluegrass with mid/upper 30s along with 40s to the south.

Showers will start to end and push quickly off to the east/southeast tomorrow morning with winds becoming more northeast. Temperatures will still be in the low 50s and skies will clear through the day. High pressure will build in for the end of the week which will keep the weather dry with lows Friday morning in the 30s and warming into the 60s in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 302 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

For Saturday, surface high pressure will allow for warm and dry conditions to take place over the area. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, with some places along the Tennessee border getting into the 70s. The nice weather won't last for long as the cold front of a strong surface low over the Great Lakes passes over the Ohio Valley Saturday night through midday Sunday. This would bring some light rain showers that will be mainly focused to southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.

For Sunday and beyond, guidance is picking up on multiple rounds of precipitation to take place for the area. The first wave will pass by Sunday evening through early Monday, with the southern part of the CWA experiencing mainly rain. For counties along and north of the Ohio River, a mix of rain, snow, and even some freezing rain is possible. The period of time that conditions would be favorable for freezing rain is fairly limited, only lasting for a few hours at most. Guidance beyond this wave is not as clear, though more precipitation is expected to take place during the forecast period. Given the uncertainty, the forecast will carry lower PoPs Monday night through next Wednesday. With the presence of a frontal boundary on Monday, the spread of temperatures will range from the upper 30s/low 40s in the northern counties to the mid 50s in the southern counties. The spread of temperatures will not be as drastic on Tuesday and Wednesday as the front shifts northward, allowing for highs in the upper 40s in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky to the upper 50s over southern Kentucky.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Rain showers moving into the region currently from the SW with all sites seeing light rain by 09z. Low level dry air is expected to delay some precip making it to the ground, but we will have a good saturated column by 06z - 09z. MVFR ceilings will make their way in tonight as early as 05z for BWG and 12z for HNB/LEX/SDF/RGA. Ceilings will gradually improve from NW to SE by mid-day tomorrow with BKN skies. Winds will be variable through the night into tomorrow as a frontal boundaries moves through. Sites should expect a shift between 00z - 06z to a ENE component, however by 20z expect another shift to a more northerly wind.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.