textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms will push east across the region today ahead of a cold front. Expect gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and perhaps some small hail.

* Mainly dry and pleasant for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 60s Sunday and 70s Monday.

* Warm during the middle of next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday night. Cooler air arrives late next week behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 238 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Conditions are very mild and dry early this morning. Temperatures are hovering in the 60s to around 70 with a steady 5-10 mph southerly breeze. IR satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies at the moment, with convection ongoing across MO, IL, and WI ahead of a cold front. Sfc low pressure is analyzed over western WI early this morning, with a cold front extending southwest through parts of IA, MO, KS, and OK. This sfc low, preceding a mid-level shortwave trough, will lift quickly northeast across the Great Lakes and into Canada today. The cold front will cut southeast across the Mid-MS Valley and OH Valley today into tonight.

A band of rain showers and thunderstorms will traverse central KY and southern IN between 8 AM - 4 PM EST today well ahead of the cold front. Expect a mild, wet, windy, and occasionally stormy day. A 40- 45 kt SW low-level jet will be in place this morning into early afternoon ahead of the convection. As we see modest heating and low- level mixing early in the day, winds are likely to increase. Gusts over 30 mph are expected.

As rain showers and thunderstorms push through the region, some stronger wind gusts will be possible. MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg may be realized in the warm sector across central and eastern KY. Effective deep shear of 30-40 kts will be sufficient for organized convection. The unidirectional shear profile and linear convective mode support straight-line winds as the primary hazard. There remains a Marginal/low-end risk for isolated damaging winds in stronger storms. Small hail and brief heavy rainfall will also be possible. The tornado risk, while not zero, is quite low.

A lull in shower activity looks likely this evening, but we should see additional scattered showers develop back along the actual cold front late this evening into the overnight period. The rain chances will gradually taper from NW to SE heading into Sunday as cooler, drier air moves in behind the front. Look for Sunday morning lows to range from the low to mid 40s in southern IN, to the lower 50s southeast of a BWG to LEX line. Sfc high pressure noses in from the west on Sunday, and we'll see clouds gradually clear. Temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 60s for highs. The dry stretch will likely linger through Monday. Look for lows in the 40s, and highs in the low to mid 70s to kick off the new week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 238 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

On Tuesday, we'll likely start off with an upper low over northern Mexico, lifting northeast. An upper level shortwave trough begins to amplify over the northern Rockies. The northern stream wave digs southeast over the central CONUS through midweek while starting to interact with the southern stream wave. This should lead to a baroclinic zone setting up over the Plains and Midwest, with deepening sfc low pressure eventually lifting northeast across the Great Lakes mid to late week.

Locally, it appears we could see some warm advection showers as early as Monday night or Tuesday. Expect above normal temps through this stretch. Rain and thunderstorm chances appear to be maximized Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a strong cold front. We could see some heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm potential around this time as well. A shot of cooler air should arrive for late next week, with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Clouds quickly thicken and lower early in this TAF period. A wavy band of SHRA/TSRA will push east across the area between 13-21Z today. SW wind gusts will increase this morning, and brief/localized strong to severe wind gusts will be possible in stronger thunderstorms. Brief IFR/MVFR vis and ceilings will be possible in heavier showers and storms. A broader band of low-end MVFR ceilings will be possible after 00Z Sunday as the cold front pushes through the region.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.