textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered snow showers or squalls are possible this evening. Any snow squalls can produce brief intense snow rates, reduced visibility, and hazardous driving conditions.

* Dry but cold weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Single digit temperatures are most likely Tuesday morning, with wind chills near or below zero for southern IN and north-central KY.

* Pattern remains quite active with multiple systems moving through this next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

The positively tilted mid and upper level trough is beginning to swing through the region. This is bringing some mid-level moisture and lift to promote snow showers. CAA has allowed lapse rates to steepen, which could help to bring some moderate showers and a snow squall. In the low levels, there is a fair amount of dry air which is helping to evaporate some precip initially. Temperatures this afternoon have increased into the mid-to-upper 30s. Precip may initially fall as rain/sprinkles and then transition to snow. Best timing is 20-4Z.

The trough will continue to swing through the region tonight and skies will mostly clear behind the precip. Continued CAA will allow temperatures to fall overnight into the mid teens. Steady, westerly winds will bring wind chills into the single digits Sunday morning.

Broad troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS, which will keep colder temperatures and weak CAA in the region. High temperatures on the Sunday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Another shortwave trough will move through the region Sunday evening and into the overnight. Broken to overcast skies will increase Sunday afternoon. The best forcing will move over central Indiana, though some isolated snow showers or flurries will be possible. Lows Monday morning will be in the mid-to-upper teens and wind chills ranging -1 to 5 over the northern half of the region and 5 to 10 over the southern half.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 317 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Monday - Tuesday Night...

Surface high pressure will build into the region keeping conditions dry during this time. Upper northwesterly flow under broad troughing will allow high to remain in the 20s and low 30s. Low temperature on Tuesday will likely be the coldest of this forecast, in the single digits. Light winds on Tuesday morning will bring wind chills into the -5 to 0 range over the northern half of the region and 0 to 8 over the southern half. We may need a cold weather advisory on Tuesday morning for the Bluegrass, but for now we will keep monitoring forecast wind chills.

Wednesday - Thursday Morning...

Flow aloft will become more zonal ahead of a strengthening trough over the upper Plains. A low pressure system will develop over the upper Midwest and move through the Great Lakes. This will bring a cold front through the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday morning. At the surface, high pressure will shift to the east of the region, and southwesterly flow will bring WAA into the region. Temperatures will increase into the 40s on Wednesday. A strong LLJ will usher in better moisture and promote scattered rain showers. Wednesday night, these showers may transition to a mix of rain/snow.

Thursday - End of Next Week...

High pressure will build in behind the cold front, bringing drier weather and slightly below normal temperatures.

Forecast Confidence...

The next week and into the early part of the following week is quite active, with a very progressive pattern. Confidence is high in multiple system through the week, but timing may shift.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Mostly clear skies over the region at this 17Z hour. A low-mid level cloud deck is beginning to enter from the west. Light radar returns are present, though with a fair amount of low-level dry air, these snow particles are likely not making it to the surface. Later this afternoon and into the evening, the mid-level trough will swing through the region bringing a bit more moisture. This will help to develop isolated snow showers over the northern half of the region. Best timing is 21-4Z. In snow showers, VIS may be reduced to low-end MVFR or briefly IFR and CIGS to MVFR. Otherwise, VIS and CIGs will remain VFR through the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.