textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mostly cloudy through tonight. Temperatures still cold with lows in the 20s, but overall a bit milder.

* A wintry mix of rain and snow is possible Tuesday into late Tuesday night. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas along and north of I-64. 1 to 2" of slushy snow accumulation is expected north of I-64. Along I-64 a coating to 1" of snow is possible and will likely affect the Tuesday afternoon/evening commute.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Quiet weather ongoing this afternoon as temperatures are just squeaking above freezing in many areas across the CWA. Not sure our NE CWA is going to quite make it above freezing, but there is a good chance to do it briefly tomorrow for those areas. Could have some brief clearing this evening into the overnight across our southern CWA, however mid clouds move back in pretty quickly overnight into Tuesday, so that should keep low temps from tanking too much. Still lows in the 20s likely for pretty much everyone. There is some signal for some fog development tonight, so will continue to mention patchy nature. Cloud cover should help limit a more widespread and dense concern so won't message hard at this time. Still, something to keep an eye on.

The big focus in the short term is the Tuesday wintry mix expected across the area. Pretty complicated system to message and forecast given several variables. 1.) The system is somewhat disjointed thanks to separate shortwaves/moisture sources that struggle to phase into a larger and more uniform precipitation shield. Time heights and soundings show the lead (northern wave) having a lot of mid and upper moisture, but fairly dry in the low levels. Meanwhile, the second (southern) wave arrives a bit late to the game and should mainly contribute to the rainfall across southern and central KY Tuesday PM.

2.) Models continue to hint at potential for a morning frontogenetical light snow band across our N and NE CWA, or just outside of the area. Given that confidence is low in this band, messaging snow start time has been tricky, and morning is when the best snow ratios would be. So, decided to start the northern tier of the Advisory a bit earlier to account for this potential, as well as message overall higher totals (1 to 2") for them. Think they can get there with the 2nd afternoon/evening wave anyway, but any morning snow would help push them more solidly into that range.

3.) Surface temperatures are expected to rise a bit above freezing through the afternoon and early evening with the rain/snow line battling across the southern fringes of the current drawn Winter Weather Advisory, so this makes just how much will accumulate a bit tricky. It is likely that road/surface temps may lag air temps a bit given how cold it has been, so it is possible to accumulate in this scenario, especially as we get past 3 or 4 pm. In addition, rates could be impressive for a few hours given the frontogenetical component evident in the 850-500 mb layer, combined with some saturation up through the DGZ. A bit concerned drier low levels could hurt accumulations potential, especially if the southern moisture doesn't arrive in time. Something to watch.

4.) The afternoon evening/commute, including schools. Given the onset time of the heaviest snow across the Advisory area being from early to mid afternoon through late evening, it does appear that the afternoon/evening commute will be affected, including the Louisville and Lexington metro areas. Even though snow amounts are expected to be more in the dusting to 1" range here, think there is enough chance for impacts to the commute to include the southern tier of counties in the advisory as well. Could be a sharp gradient across these counties from N to S as warmer temps cut into totals even more. Still, looks to be a few hours where rates will be decent enough to overcome the slightly "milder" surface temps for some slick spots. It is possible this second tier of the Advisory may need tweaked or massaged tonight or early tomorrow, but wanted to get messaging out as soon as possible. Do have a slightly later start time for this segment as the morning northern snow band should be too far north to impact this area.

5.) Also a bit worried that as the lead (northern) wave scoots through the area into the late evening, we are only left with some fairly shallow moisture from the southern wave. Some data only shows this saturating up to around - 5 to -8C, which leaves ice nuclei introduction a bit questionable. Worried we may end the event Tuesday night with some lingering light freezing drizzle, or more hopefully just snizzle. Speaking of freezing rain, we'll also have to watch for some light glazing anywhere from southern Indiana to central Kentucky where surface may still be below freezing despite air temps into the mid or upper 30s. HREF Fram solutions try to show a glaze possible for this scenario across central KY, and can't rule it out. Don't have this in the Advisory at this time, because it may not have much of an impact for what is still ongoing from the last storm, but something to be mindful of in case some slick spots start developing tomorrow. Could need to expand advisory well south to account for this 3rd tiered threat if it develops.

Overall, quite a bit to think about and message for this relatively quick and minor system on Tuesday. Overall, fell fairly good about where current Advisory is placed, although won't be surprised if it needs some adjustments both spatially and temporally before onset tomorrow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

General troughing will be in place across the eastern CONUS for mid to late week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will slide behind the departing cold front of the Tuesday system. Looks to be a cold and dry stretch through the mid to late week. Will have to watch lingering 1000-850 mb moisture on Wednesday morning where there could be some lingering flurries, especially across the eastern CWA. Otherwise, cold and dry with highs in the 20s and 30s for Wednesday/Thursday, and lows in the teens on Wednesday night. Friday...

NW flow aloft holds for Friday, but will have to watch for a reinforcing shortwave traveling through the flow. Could bring some rain/snow showers to the area. We get pretty mild (relatively speaking) ahead of this system with temps expected to climb into the 40s on a warm advection component. Will continue to mention a chance of rain/snow showers with this system across our NE CWA, but overall don't expect big impacts with this one given the mild temps ahead of it, and the overall lack of deeper moisture limiting the amount of available QPF.

Friday Night - Monday...

NW flow aloft then persists through the weekend with cold high pressure taking hold behind the cold front from Friday's system. Looking for lows in the teens and low 20s again on Friday night and Saturday night. Meanwhile, Saturday highs will only be in the 20s and 30s. Things try to quickly moderate by Sunday/Monday with highs climbing into the 30s and 40s on Sunday, and then well into the 40s by Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Low to mid-level clouds will remain in the area for most of the day. South central KY could see a short time of partial clearing into tonight, but will not last as a mid-level cloud deck moves in by day break. Winds will remain calm through the night into tomorrow with speeds around 5-10kts. Another system will move into the area tomorrow afternoon, and will bring chances for a wintry mix. Could expect MVFR conditions as cloud ceilings lower and the precip moves in. Further clarification on timing and impact to come as models are still inconsistent with placement.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ030-034-035-040-041-049. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for INZ076-084-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for INZ077>079-092.