textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Colder and dry weather is expected today. A few flurries are possible across southeast IN and northeast KY Sunday morning, but impacts/accumulations are unlikely.

* Temperatures should gradually warm from Sunday through Tuesday, with dry weather continuing.

* Active weather returns by the middle of next week, with a chance for rain arriving Tuesday night. Additional chances for precipitation continue through the end of next week, though forecast confidence is still fairly low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Early this morning, an arctic cold front is descending across Kentucky, having moved through southern Indiana over the past few hours. Temperatures are dropping quickly behind this secondary front, with areas around Cincinnati having dropped 10 degrees in the last two hours. A few light snow bands have moved across the Bluegrass region ahead of the front; those should push out of the region within the next few hours, with no significant weather expected after these last few snow bands clear the area.

Later this morning, cold advection will continue to spread through the entire CWA, with temperatures tumbling until shortly after sunrise. Portions of southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass may be able to fall into the upper single digits, with minimum wind chills near zero. Many areas will be able to fall into the teens by sunrise, with portions of southern and SW KY being the relatively mild spots in the low 20s.

Stratus clouds along the front should continue to clear from north to south, with mostly clear skies expected across the area by mid- morning. Mostly sunny skies are expected throughout much of the day today, which will help things feel a bit warmer as highs should only make it into the mid-20s to low 30s across the area. There could be enough residual low-level moisture from flow off of Lake Michigan for a stratocu field to develop across southern IN and northern KY this afternoon, which could hold down temperatures further if there is sufficient coverage.

By this afternoon and evening, winds should ease as sfc high pressure moves overhead. Tonight, clouds should increase as another upper-level disturbance moves just to the northeast of the region. While moisture should be fairly sparse, a band of light snow and flurries may be able to develop across southeast IN and northeast KY, though accumulations are not expected. Will add a mention of flurries in the forecast mainly for Jefferson County, IN and the northeastern KY Bluegrass counties. Temperatures Sunday morning should be cold once again, with lows ranging from the low teens to the low 20s across the area.

On Sunday, the upper trough and sfc high pressure should begin to slide to the east, allowing for some return flow to move in from the SW. Ongoing cloud cover during the morning should gradually clear during the afternoon and evening hours, which could again help things feel a bit milder outside. Temperatures should vary pretty strongly from SW to NE across the area, with mid 40s possible along and south of the Cumberland Parkway Sunday afternoon, while temperatures may struggle to reach the low 30s across southern IN and north central KY. Dry weather should continue into Sunday night, with lows Monday morning expected to range from the upper teens in our northeastern counties to the low 30s in our southwestern counties.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Monday and Tuesday...

During the first few days of the upcoming week, the large-scale pattern will be shifting as upper troughing moves off the east coast of the US. It looks like split upper flow will be present across the western half of the US as a cutoff low meanders eastward across northern Mexico underneath flat upper ridging over the western CONUS. A polar stream trough moving across Canada will help to spread the upper ridging toward the Ohio Valley as we get later into this period. This will allow for a warming trend which should start Sunday and continue through Tuesday, though as the previous forecaster mentioned, this warm-up will be somewhat tempered by remaining snow cover across the northern half of the CWA. It still looks like Tuesday should bring our best chance for area-wide above normal temperatures since January 14th, which should help to melt much of the remaining snow cover. The early week period should feature predominantly dry weather, with most guidance holding off precipitation until Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

Tuesday Night through the Rest of Next Week...

The polar stream trough referenced above will push an elongated baroclinic zone/front toward the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week. As energy from the cutoff low gets absorbed into the mean flow, this energy should ride along the baroclinic zone and approach the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. Moisture return ahead of this upper-level energy should be sufficient for precipitation to develop, and ensemble p-type data continues to favor predominantly rain with the mid-week system.

While there is fairly good confidence with the start of the mid-week precipitation chances, confidence is lower on how long precipitation will linger during the second half of next week. Additionally, there is a wide range in precipitation amounts from Wednesday into next weekend among the various ensemble members. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis suggests that the uncertainty centers around differences in handling what should be a fairly complex split upper flow pattern. In some solutions, upper troughing along the eastern seaboard will amplify by the end of next week, causing the frontal zone/storm track to shift south of the region and bringing cooler and drier weather. In other solutions, the upper flow pattern is not as amplified, with additional systems moving across the region next Thursday and Friday.

With the initial chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday night, most likely rain totals in ensembles generally range from 0.10- 0.25", with the majority of ensembles under 0.50". However, additional rounds of rainfall later in the week would increase the chance of minor hydro concerns. As it stands right now, combined GEFS and GEPS QPF guidance only begins to approach minor flood stage on our typically troublesome rivers (Green, Rolling Fork, Kentucky) in the top 5-10% of ensemble members, so the probability of river flooding in the next 7-10 days is low at this time.

Over the course of the second half of the week, temperatures should trend downward, though exactly how much of a slide they take will be dependent on which synoptic-scale pattern materializes. If some of the cooler solutions come to fruition, then we'll need to watch Valentine's Day Weekend for the chance for a wintry precipitation system, though the probability of this is low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions are likely at all forecast sites through the current forecast period. One chance for lower flight categories will be at BWG over the next 1-2 hours as the cold front could bring some brief MVFR CIGs. The other potential for MVFR conditions would be the development of a stratocu field this afternoon, particularly at SDF/LEX/HNB; however, continue to expect this to remain FEW-SCT. Winds will gradually relax today, varying between N/NW and N/NE before veering to the E/NE tonight. Mid-level clouds will begin to increase from the west after sunset tonight, though cloud bases should remain above 10k ft into Sunday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.