textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75-1.5" expected for most areas.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early next week, with increasing chances for rain late in the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

This Afternoon - Tonight...

Surface high pressure is centered near the KY/WV/OH tri-point this afternoon, supporting sunny skies and light winds across the region. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s as of 19Z, and we should be able to add a couple more degrees before we reach daily highs over the next few hours. Light winds and clear skies will continue this evening into tonight, allowing for efficient radiational cooling after sunset. While mid- and upper- level clouds should begin to increase from the west early Saturday morning, lows should still be able to fall into the upper 20s and low-to-mid 30s across the area Saturday morning.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The weather over most of the weekend is expected to be dominated by a closed/cutoff upper low and attendant sfc low which should gradually work its way across the southern US from Saturday through Sunday evening. With confidence now high that the sfc low should track between the TN Valley and the Gulf, our area will remain within the cool sector of the low. Fortunately, there will be no cold air mass in place to our north, so precipitation should fall entirely as rain with temperatures in the 40s and 50s for much of the weekend.

Saturday, ridging downstream of the upper low will be crossing the region, with low-to-mid level S/SW flow beginning the process of top- down saturation as clouds thicken through the day. Latest hi-res guidance continues to support most of the day remaining dry, with rain showers beginning to move into our western zones during the early-to-mid afternoon hours. High temperatures will be determined by how quickly clouds thicken up, with the current forecast calling for mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s across the area.

Initially, rain rates should be fairly light, with moist isentropic lift around 800-750 mb supporting precip development. As stronger LLJ forcing noses into the region from the south Saturday night into Sunday morning, moisture will continue to increase across the region, with PW values increasing to around 1" along the Ohio River, and to around 1.25" on the KY/TN border, roughly in the top 3-5% of climatology for mid-February. The layer of isentropic lift should deepen into early Sunday morning, increasing rainfall rates across the area. Hi-res guidance does show further enhancements to rainfall rates along a convergence zone along the leading edge of the LLJ, so while there will be a general increase in QPF as you go farther south, there will likely be a secondary maximum somewhere in the northern half of the CWA.

As the upper low pushes off into the southeast US on Sunday, drier air will gradually end precipitation from NW to SE during the second half of the day, with mainly dry conditions expected Sunday night. In total, the previous forecast of amounts generally between 0.75" and 1.50" is on track for much of the area. Many areas north of I-64 and east of I-65 may end up closer to 0.50" for the event total rainfall, but there likely will also be a smaller-scale secondary maximum of greater than 1", the exact location of which fluctuates between model runs. Given the relatively steady, stratiform nature of this rain, expected rainfall totals are modest enough to preclude significant flooding concerns. The latest HEFS guidance suggests that while a few sites on the lower Green River (i.e., Mammoth Cave, Rochester) could reach Action Stage, the likelihood of minor flood is still less than 15%.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

===== Monday - Tuesday =====

By Monday morning, lingering clouds will begin to move off to the southeast as the cut off low exits off the southeast coast. Some cold air advection with winds from the NE will bring highs down to the 40s and 50s in the afternoon with general clearing expected throughout the day. Monday night begins with clear skies but as radiational cooling takes place with small dewpoint depressions, fog may form heading into Tuesday morning. Deep troughing over the west coast will help build ridging into our area Tuesday and through much of the rest of next week as well. With southwesterly winds, and the jet stream staying well to our north, Tuesday will be mild and dry, possibly with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s in some southern areas. Low temperatures will be mild for this time of year, with low to mid 40s expected both nights.

===== Wednesday - Friday =====

A mid to low level high pressure will dominate the rest of the week's weather pattern, further strengthened by stubborn troughing in the western US. Broad ridging with a near zonal flow of the jet stream brings more warm air advection on Wednesday. Dry conditions with much higher than average temperatures are expected. Highs will be in the 60s again, with maybe a few southern areas reaching the low 70s. Current trends indicate that despite a low moving to our north, most, if not all isentropic lift with this low will stay further north, indicating much warmer air will be moving into the area then. Depending on how much mixing occurs, some gusty winds are possible Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, the broad ridge affecting nearly the eastern two-thirds of the country will still keep temperatures above average, albeit a few degrees cooler than Wednesday after the passage of the low to our north. Dry conditions are expected Thursday morning though a small rain chance may be possible with yet another system moving through. This one has more potential for rain over the area, though most rain that may fall seems to occur on Friday. By then, most of the moisture on this current track may pass over the Great Lakes with a few showers possible during the day. This is something that will be monitored as the event approaches during this overall calm pattern with periodic weak signals for rain next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 618 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

For the upcoming TAF period, mid-high level clouds will start to increase across the region very late tonight and into Saturday morning. Winds this evening will lighten up and remain generally light out of the southeast. After sunrise, look for winds to shift back to southeast Saturday morning. Next weather system will start to affect the region by late Saturday with light rain possible at BWG/HNB/SDF toward 15/00Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.