textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures warm each day before reaching the 70s and 80s by Friday into the weekend.

* Sunday night into Monday, a cold front drops temperatures back to the 50s with an additional chance of rain for some.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Quiet and not as chilly tonight as temperatures will mainly stay confined to the mid 30s to near 40. A few decoupled valleys may drop into the lower 30s, however incoming sky cover will likely result in a small rise as we move through the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings lower to a mid deck by late tomorrow morning where a few sprinkles could be possible through early afternoon. Most folks will stay dry with overall milder temperatures rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. The forecast is on track. No changes planned at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 421 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

An upper trough axis continues to sit along the East Coast, keeping northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. A shortwave in this flow continues to push through southern Indiana and central Kentucky and has cleared skies west of Interstate 65. East of 65, dry air in the low levels continues to limit most of the rain from reaching the surface. Through the rest of the afternoon/evening, this clearing and showers will continue to quickly push off to the east as winds become less gusty.

Tonight, with surface high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest, light south winds will limit falling temperatures to the mid 30s to low 40s. Most areas are expected to remain above freezing.

Tomorrow, with the overall pattern remaining the same, northwest flow will push another shortwave through the CWA during the early afternoon. The forecast has trended drier with this quick moving system. A sprinkle could be possible, but many will likely not see anything beside some cloud cover that is expected to clear behind the wave. WAA with clearing skies will help push temperatures to the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 421 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Friday, a surface low will get pushed southeast through the Great Lakes. This will produce a weak west-southwest to east- northeast oriented cold front which will drop south through the Lower Ohio Valley. Rain showers are expected east of our area, towards the surface low, but this could bring some additional chances for light precipitation to our eastern counties. WAA will push highs into the 70s with some upper 60s possible in the Bluegrass.

By the weekend, high surface pressure will cause winds to light and somewhat variable with better chances for extra sunshine. Temperatures climb into the 70s to mid 80s.

Sunday night into Monday morning, a cold front is expected to drop south through the region, dropping highs back into the low 50s to mid 60s early next week. Multiple models show a robust stable layer near the surface, but some guidance has some elevate instability. with the bulk of precipitation remaining to our east, this front doesn't look too concerning. Some elevate instability could lead to some hail, but the wind threat looks low with a chance we continue to trend drier.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

High clouds have been moving in from the north overnight and will be around for part of the forecast, we may get a few sprinkles associated with a weak passing system but most should remain dry. We look to clear out with winds generally remaining out of the south with overall little weather impacts and VFR flight categories through the forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.