textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread frost is possible through early Saturday morning, melting in the hours following sunrise. A widespread freeze is expected Saturday night, with a Freeze Warning in effect from 12 AM EST Sunday - 9 AM EST.

* Skies become mostly clear with highs in the 50s Saturday.

* A quiet weather pattern with highs in the 60s returns Monday- Wednesday and very low rain chances for late Wednesday-Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A dry but cool weekend is in store for central Kentucky and northern Indiana as surface high pressure builds in over the region. With mostly clear skies and calmer north-northwesterly winds, temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 30s by Saturday morning. A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM EST, with any frost that does develop melting in the morning hours shortly after sunrise. There is the potential for patchy fog to develop over the next few hours, primarily in river valleys across the western portions of the area. After the dissipation of any fog that does develop, it will be a mostly clear Saturday across the region, save for some upper-level clouds that may form in the afternoon. With nnorth-northwestely flow prevailing, afternoon highs on Saturday will be 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year, with temperatures in the low to mid 50s forecast.

For Saturday night, clearing skies and calm winds will allow for decent radiational cooling to take place. The latest NBM has a 55- 70% chance for temperatures below freezing for rural areas, decreasing to 40-55% for urban locations. An area-wide Freeze Warning was recently issued and will be in effect from 12 AM EST Sunday - 10 AM EST. Overnight temperatures are currently forecast to be in the upper 20s/low 30s, with the coldest conditions expected for sheltered rural areas. To close out the weekend, winds will shift to the southwest during the first half of Sunday before a weak cold front moves through and switches the surface flow back to the northwest. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected.

Looking ahead to next week, the stretch of dry weather will continue as the area of surface high pressure remains overhead. Temperatures will fluctuate some Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the 60s forecast. Overnight lows will be be slightly warmer as well, hovering around the upper 30s/low 40s range. The upper-level ridge over the central and western CONUS that is responsible for the northwesterly flow we are currently experiencing will begin to break down some as the week progresses. By midweek, long range deterministic and ensemble models are showing a brief period of zonal flow over the Ohio Valley before another shift in the upper- level pattern takes shape. The latter portions of next week depict an amplified upper-level pattern with ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. For us, guidance is having a shortwave trough swing over the region, though the exact timing is still uncertain. This change in the pattern will allow for the return of rain chances Wednesday night-Friday, however antecedent dry air currently depicted in guidance would keep our rainfall totals down, with the most recent LREF only gives a 15-25% chance for more than 0.25" of rain. The end of next week could bring a return to cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 40s/50s as guidance is depicting a colder air mass filling behind the system as it swings through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

High pressure remains in control through this TAF cycle, and conditions are expected to largely stay VFR through the period. One exception is some initial MVFR ceilings at LEX/RGA where some lingering low level moisture is enough to yield some Bkn ceilings between 2500-3000 feet. Expect this cloud field to scatter and raise to VFR threshold pretty quickly this afternoon.

Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with steady NW winds the rest of the day. Winds go calm or light and variable tonight, and then take on a SW to WSW component on Sunday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Freeze Warning from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.