textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A low pressure system is bringing rain to the region through this afternoon. Most locations should receive 0.50-1", though a corridor of slightly higher amounts is possible across southern IN, and southern KY. There is a low chance of minor flooding issues in areas which receive the heaviest rainfall.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early this coming week, with temperatures flirting with records by Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

* Active weather pattern returns for the second half of the week. We'll have to watch the Thursday afternoon-Friday morning period for a chance for strong storms, though confidence is still low.

UPDATE

Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

1000 mb sfc low is pivoting across northern MS this morning, with a large shield of light to moderate rain extending to the northeast of the low into the TN and lower OH valley this morning. Over the past 24 hours, most locations across the area have received at least 0.25" of rain, with the expected maxima in rainfall amounts setting up in the far northern and southern CWA, with a minimum in amounts across central KY. The strongest LLJ/low-mid level WAA forcing is now pushing to the east of the I-75 corridor, with drier air now beginning to wrap into southern IN and western KY on the NW flank of the cyclone.

Over the next 3-6 hours, a mid-level deformation axis will pivot from west to east across TN and far southern KY, bringing enhanced rainfall rates. Think that the TN border counties will have the best shot at event total rainfall amounts exceeding 1", with the last of the rain not pushing out of the Lake Cumberland area until late this afternoon. Farther to the northwest, rain will gradually end over the next few hours, though a low overcast and patches of mist and fog will likely follow the rain this afternoon. Since rainfall amounts have largely been lower than expected, flooding should not pose a concern aside from some ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Temperatures will struggle to warm this afternoon as clouds hang over the area and weak cold advection overspreads the area from the NW. Highs in the upper 40s and low 50s are still on track.

If we did get any clearing before sunset, the best chances would be across southern IN and western KY, though most locations will not clear out until later this evening or tonight.

The forecast is in good shape at this time; have mainly refined the PoPs over the next 6 hours to incorporate latest obs and guidance.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Seeing a rather disjointed system at the moment as two distinct precipitation fields are evident across the region. The northern precip shield is associated more with mid level frontogenesis beneath the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet streak. This feature is expected to stay across the northern third of the CWA, and is currently along and north of the I-64 corridor. The second distinct area of rainfall is now starting to lift northward out of TN and into southern KY, and this is mainly associated with the low level jet core that is peaking now through the next 3 hours or so around 30-35 knots. Do expect some filling in of the precipitation field across central KY as the low level jet core and mid level frontogenesis try to phase a bit, but this will likely be pretty short-lived and QPF across the center of the CWA will likely suffer.

Overall, confidence has increased quite a bit over the past 24 hours for a bi-modal QPF maximum across our CWA, with the northern and southern CWA seeing those maxes. Current forecast will call for an axis of .75" - 1" north of I-64. Meanwhile, another axis of 1" to 1.5" is still possible across our southern tier or two of counties. Still expect we can largely handle these amounts of rainfall. Perhaps a few minor/nuisance flooding concerns could arise, but overall not concerned as 1 hour rates really don't look to exceed .25" per hour at any point based off the latest HREF data.

The system passes south of us through the day today, with deep moisture being cut off from NW to SE from mid to late morning through mid to late afternoon. As a result, have pops tapering dramatically from NW to SE through that time. Highs will struggle a bit today compared to past recent days due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover. Still, well above normal with upper 40s and low 50s expected.

Seems to be a classic setup/recipe for fog tonight, likely dense across our northern CWA. The setup features widespread soaking rain during the day, followed by skies clearing out around or just after sunset, and giving way to good radiational cooling conditions overnight. Will hit areas of dense fog across the northern CWA for now, and won't be surprised if we need a Dense Fog Advisory heading into tonight. Temps look to stay in the mid and upper 30s, so not expecting any freezing fog at the moment.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday - Wednesday...

With the low level moisture still sticking around and radiational cooling overnight, areas of dense fog are likely to persist through late morning on Monday. A dense fog advisory could possibly be issued, but we will need to continue monitoring the situation. Otherwise to start the week, warm and mostly dry conditions are expected as we have surface high pressure setting up over the region. Upper level ridging moves in from the west, while a trough starts to dig along the west coast, will result in deep SW flow over the Ohio Valley. This will bring in a warming pattern leading to temperatures trending upward toward the mid to high 60s by Tuesday afternoon. A strong low pressure system is expected to move across the Great Plains into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system tracking NW has the potential to drop some light rain north of I-64. An associated region of high surface pressure gradient will stretch over the Ohio Valley, leading to a windy Wednesday. Winds will remain in the SW component with speeds ranging 10-18kts, with gusts potentially in to 20s. Areas along and west of I-65 could see maximum temperatures in the low 70s on Wednesday. We could be nearing record temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but for now look to be just below.

Thursday - Saturday...

Staying in the deep SW flow, another low pressure system associated with a shortwave disturbance will move into the region Thursday into Friday. Guidance is showing this system to track through central IL and northern IN. An associated cold front will stretch from the Great Lakes region down into TX. As the frontal boundary moves through the area, organized convection is likely to form along and ahead of the boundary with possible rotating updrafts given exit region mid and upper jet setup. The wind shear profile and marginal values of CAPE could support some severe potential, however the dewpoints are only currently forecast in the low to mid 50 which could be a limiting factor. Pretty marginal just like the instability parameters. There is still some uncertainty with impacts at this time, but should become more clear with time. Another round of rain chances are possible Saturday with a weaker system behind the low. The timing and location of this will depend of the prior system's track out of the area. Overall though, cooler temperatures and partially clear skies can be expected Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

IFR ceilings should overspread area terminals this afternoon as rain showers exit LEX/RGA/BWG over the next 1-3 hours. Stratus is expected to gradually scatter out from west to east late this afternoon through early Monday morning. While there could be a few hours of VFR conditions this evening and tonight, wherever stratus clears, fog would be likely to fill back in early Monday morning. Think that areas of LIFR/VLIFR fog are likely at HNB/SDF tomorrow morning, with fog a bit more uncertain as you go south and east to LEX/RGA/BWG. Regardless, reduced flight categories are likely through mid-morning Monday, with either low stratus or fog expected. Winds this afternoon will continue to back toward the N/NE, with speeds generally less than 10 kt before becoming light and variable overnight tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.