textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold, blustery weather for today, with high temperatures only in the 30s. Breezy northwest winds continue, with gusts 20-25mph through the daytime. Wind chills in the 20s later today.

* A few light snow showers could be possible off Lake Michigan today east of I-65, but chances are lower than yesterday due to more low level dry air.

* Temperatures gradually warm next week with a messy weather pattern in store. Next best rain chances arrive Wednesday night and through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Regional radar continues to show some isolated pockets of light snow moving south and on the outer extent of the cyclonic flow. However, as the deep low moves up the East Coast, drier air will settle in and cut off our snow chances. We'll remain under deep NW flow through today though, which keeps a strong CAA presence and cold temps. Temps this morning are in the upper teens and low 20s, and are only expected to climb into the mid-30s later today.

In addition to these cold temps, the sfc pressure gradient remains quite strong across our area, which keeps breezy NNW winds going. Gusts 20-25 mph are expected through the daylight hours, but should begin to see those relax by this evening. However, these winds combined with the cold temps will make it feel quite blustery. Wind chills this morning are in the upper single digits and low teens, and will only be in the 20s this afternoon.

With the NNW flow through the region, there will be some moisture fetch off of Lake Michigan. However, not expecting as much coverage in snow showers today as the boundary layer will be drier. Model soundings show quite steep lapse rates, so could see a few light lake effect snow streaks across the Bluegrass, but chances are lower than yesterday. The HRRR hints at this for a short period this evening, but could see some flurries earlier. However, with the very limited moisture, no accumulations are forecast.

For tonight, we'll have clearing skycover, relaxing winds, and cold temps for the overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

===== Tuesday - Wednesday =====

We'll remain under strong CAA Tuesday morning, which will promote temps in the upper teens to start the day. However, sfc high pressure passing to the south will help relax our winds during the morning hours, so wind chills are not expected to deviate too much from the air temps. However, expect winds to increase through the day again, but from the southwest by this time, leading to increasing WAA. This will help moderate our temps after a cold start, with mid to upper-40s expected, which will be slightly below normal.

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, an upper level low will move across the Great Lakes, bringing snow chances to portions of Indiana and Ohio. However, this system is expected to remain north of our area, so will continue with a dry period. We remain dry for most of Wednesday as we'll await another shortwave that is expected to bring our next chances for soaking rain. Temps on Wednesday will return to the 50s under WAA flow.

===== Wednesday Night - Sunday =====

Another shortwave will pivot across the central US Wednesday night, resulting in a sfc low developing over southeastern CO or northern TX. This sfc low will quickly track across the Plains and through the lower Ohio Valley by Thursday. We'll see increasing coverage in rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday, with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms as well. Thick cloud cover and sfc dewpoints struggling to reach the 50s will limit instability potential, but could see an increased amount of shear as the sfc low tracks close to the forecast area. Expect rain showers throughout the entirety of Thursday, with a gradual departure by Thursday evening as the associated cold front passes through. QPF amounts have consistently been within 1-2 inches for this rain event, with the high amounts favored for areas south of the KY Pkwys.

Sfc high pressure will quickly follow in the wake of the departing low on Friday, which will support a drier end to the week. Highs on Friday will be in the 50s again, though with increasing sunshine. Sfc high shifts to our east on Saturday, introducing a warmer return flow to the region, and temps back in the 60s.

Low rain chances arrive for Sunday as another system passes through, which could linger into Monday as well. Appears to be mostly rain for now, though could see a low chance for some mixed precip by Sunday night as temps cool. This is low confidence for now, and we likely will see changes to this through the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Light snow showers will continue to diminish in coverage this morning, though could still see some -SN at SDF and LEX before sunrise. Generally expect cigs to gradually improve through the period, and should see VFR by this afternoon at all terminals. Winds will briefly relax some overnight, though additional gusty NW winds are expected through the daylight hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.