textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Many areas will climb back into the 80s today through Saturday. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday.

* Remnants of a tropical cyclone will bring some beneficial rainfall to the region this weekend and into early next week. Currently looking at a widespread 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible depending on the track of the low pressure center.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

=== Warm and Dry Through Friday ===

High pressure is shifting to the east, which is allowing winds to veer this morning. By this afternoon, we will see ample mixing up to about 850mb enhanced by southwesterly flow. Dry air mix down is possible this this afternoon, which will bring dew points into the low-mid 40s over most of the area. Ensembles show about a 40-50% chance of below 45F dew points this afternoon. Given this set up, our high temperatures will likely overachieve and reach the low-mid 80s. We will see breezy winds in the afternoon up to 20mph. Overall, a very dry and warm day.

Tonight, a weakening cold front will approach the lower Ohio Valley. Looking to see a wind shift from the north and scattered upper sky cover. Though we will not see much of a change in temperatures, just a reinforced dry airmass.

Behind the front, high pressure will move into the region and continue dry and warm conditions through the end of the work week. On Thursday and Friday, mixing up to 800mb will continue to bring dry air to the surface and slightly overachieving high temperatures. Looking to see highs in the upper 70s - mid 80s these days. RH, in the peak of the afternoon, may dip into the 20-25% range.

=== Tropical Remnants of (current) Tropical Depression Nine ===

The National Hurricane Center has identified a Tropical Depression (Nine) in the Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves north over the next few days. At this time, this system is expected to make landfall Friday and weaken as it moves north. On Saturday, ridging is expected to build over the Ohio Valley. Depending on how these two features will interact will determine the overall low track as it moves into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. Over the last several model runs, we have seen more agreement on Gulf moisture surging into the lower Ohio Valley and a slight convergence on rainfall totals. Currently, looks like rain chances and wind gusts will increase from south to north late Saturday into Sunday morning and stick around through Monday morning. LREF clusters and NBM ensembles show between 0.5-1.5 inches of rain area wide, with higher totals over southern Kentucky. Locally higher totals up to 2.5 inches are certainly possible. Depending on the exact track of the low pressure center and the residence time over the region will determine if we see higher rainfall amounts and possible severe weather. If the low pressure center tracks into central Kentucky, there will be a chance for tropical tornadoes, which are very weak and brief, and gusty winds of 30-35mph.

Early next week, troughing will move across the northern CONUS and will likely sweep the remnant TC energy and push it off to the northeast. High pressure will follow, bringing drier conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue this entire TAF period. Winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest around 5-8kts. In the afternoon, good mixing will allow for gusty southwest winds up to 18kts. Skies will remain clear through the day. FEW-SCT upper sky cover will enter from the north this evening, as a cold front approaches.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.