textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Sub-freezing temperatures possible early Wednesday morning, especially in sheltered/low-lying areas in southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.

* Dry and cooler today, with a warming trend expected Wednesday through Friday.

* Slight chance (10-20%) for a shower or thunderstorm Friday into Saturday, but forecast confidence remains relatively low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Conditions are dry with a light north wind early this morning. Sfc high pressure is positioned over the Upper Midwest. A band of precipitation associated with mid-level frontogenetical ascent is located over southern IA and northern MO. WNW mid-level flow will direct a broken band of clouds across southern IN and portions of central KY this morning. Much drier air below 800 mb will likely keep us dry, though very light radar returns (virga) should increase during the mid to late morning hours.

Temperatures are mostly in the 40s early this morning. Temperatures will continue to settle into the mid 30s to lower 40s in many places by sunrise. We still expect patchy frost early this morning, mainly in cooler valley/sheltered locations. River valleys and low-lying spots in the Bluegrass Region have the highest potential for frost development this morning, so no changes to the ongoing Frost Advisory are planned.

Sfc high pressure shifts southeast across the Great Lakes today, becoming centered over NY/PA tonight. Notable cool, dry air advection takes place near the sfc today via NE winds. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to tumble into the mid teens to mid 20s across southern IN and north-central KY by this afternoon, resulting in minimum RH values of 20-30%. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler today due to the cool NE flow and lower low-level thicknesses. Highs in the low to mid 50s will be common across southern IN and north- central KY, with upper 50s and lower 60s more likely across south- central KY.

Cool, dry conditions will linger overnight. Wednesday morning lows will range through the 30s, though frost looks less likely due to dry air and a light, steady east wind for exposed areas. However, in sheltered areas with less wind in southern IN and north-central KY, temperatures may drop below freezing. HREF probabilities for temperatures below 32 degrees exceed 40-50% roughly northeast of a line from Salem IN to Campbellsville KY Wednesday morning. Sub- freezing temperatures could pose a risk to early season plants.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

Dry weather is still expected to continue through the middle portion of the week. High pressure is forecast to shift off the East Coast as a low pressure system rotates eastward across southern Canada. This system's trailing cold front is forecast to remain well northwest of the forecast area during this time frame. We'll enjoy warming temperatures due to increasing S/SW low-level flow. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Widespread 70s are likely by Thursday.

Friday - Monday...

The aforementioned cold front weakens as it attempts to sink southeast through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Upper level support quickly ejects off to the northeast, and we even see an amplifying upper level ridge this weekend over the Plains and MS Valley. There is a slight chance (10-20%) for rain Friday into Saturday, with warm temperatures likely to continue through the weekend.

A deeper wave over the central US should help draw increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley heading into next week, with a higher chance for more widespread showers and storms through the early to middle portion of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout this forecast period. SCT- BKN mid level clouds between 7-10 kft will stream southeast across SW Indiana and portions of central Kentucky this morning. As an area of high pressure shifts southeast across the Great Lakes, light N sfc winds will veer from the NE and increase to 10+ KT after 12Z Tuesday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ031>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-077-078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ079.