textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant and dry weather continues through at least Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s/low 80s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the mid to upper 80s mid week ahead of rain chances returning late Thursday into Friday.

* A slow moving cold front will support soaking rainfall Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 712 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Surface high pressure will continue over the Ohio Valley today leaving mostly clear skies. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s across the region today. As the surface high begins to move eastward and winds start to shift southerly, clouds will move in from the NE. Nighttime lows are expected to be in the mid 50s as clouds will prevent some radiational cooling. By Wednesday afternoon, steady SSW winds return to the region bringing warmer temperatures and moisture. Maximum temperatures for Wednesday afternoon are expected to increase into the upper 80s across the area.

As the surface high continues east out of the area, upper level ridging amplifies as a low pressure system is over the Central Plains. Return flow will keep temperatures on Thursday in the upper 80s with a 70% chance of hitting 90 degrees. Additionally moisture advection continues into the Ohio Valley with dewpoints nearing 70. The afore mentioned low will begin to lift into the jet stream leaving a shortwave disturbance to move into the region. An associated cold front will push south, becoming a lifting mechanism for developing rain showers. As the front moves through on Friday, rain showers are expected to be widespread through most of the day. Severe threat still remains low as instability lacks due to the lack of heating. After the cold front pushes through the area, another shortwave disturbance will keep showers lingering Saturday. With PWATS increasing above 2 inches, rainfall is expected to be heavy with QPF ranging 2-4 inches over several days.

On the other side of things, post frontal boundary temperatures will take a slight dip back into the 70s. Areas especially in south central KY have the best chance of seeing upper 80s on Friday, however the northern part of the CWA may only see max temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. As cloud cover and cooler air sets in, temperatures on Saturday will likely stay in the mid to low 70s. By Sunday an area of high pressure will build back into the region which will begin to clear out some cloud cover for the later half of the weekend into the beginning of the week. The return of northerly flow will keep daytime temperature pleasant in the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 712 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the majority of the TAF period. Patchy fog is currently surrounding some sites, but will improve. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue until tonight when high clouds move in from the NW. Winds are expected to remain calm and light through the day. At the end of the TAF period winds will start to settle into a southerly flow for tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.