textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Rapid drop in temperatures early this morning will allow for scattered snow showers today. Snow squalls will be possible. Light snow accumulations and localized swaths of about one inch will be possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for today and Tuesday. Wind chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The cold front is barreling through the region tonight and a strong line of thunderstorms is bringing gusty to damaging winds and a chance for tornadoes. The line of storms will exit to the east around 3-4AM EDT. See Meso any Updates for addition details on tonight's system.

Behind the cold front, robust CAA will allow temperatures to plummet. We will see a brief break in any precipitation for a few pre-dawn hours. Winds will continue to gust 25-35mph. Near sunrise, we will see moisture wrap around the occluded low pressure system and low-mid level RH begin to increase. Deep upper troughing will remain over the region, allowing for plenty of forcing to some moisture. Steep lapse rates and about 20-40J/kg of CAPE will allow for snow showers to move through the region. Some of these snow showers may become snow squalls at times. In snow squalls, snowfall will be heavy, winds will be gusty, visibilities will be reduced, and may see some accumulation on roadways. Given warmer ground temperatures, not expecting much accumulation, though in squalls we could see a localized swath of about an inch. These snow chances will last through the day today and into the evening. This evening, these snow chances will taper off from SW to NE. Highs today will struggle to get above the mid-30s, with continued strong CAA into the region. Will feel quite blustery today as winds will continue to gust up to 35mph.

Monday night, winds will steadily slacken, but remain light to breezy up to 15mph. Strong CAA will allow temperatures to fall into the mid-upper teens over most of the region and low 20s over far southern Kentucky. Wind chills Tuesday morning will be in the single digits.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 202 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

On Tuesday, the upper trough will swing northeast of the region and skies will clear from SW to NE. High temperatures will remain chilly in the mid 30s.

Good news is on Wednesday we will begin to warm up as high pressure shifts to the east of the region and southerly flow and WAA returns. A very consistent signal over the last several days is a weak shortwave bringing a clipper system through the Ohio Valley. This would bring rain/snow showers on Wednesday morning. Though moisture is very limited with this system, so not expecting much accumulation and the best chances will be over the northern half of the region.

We will continue to warm up through the end of the week into the 60s. Conditions look dry through the end of the week under quiet northwesterly flow aloft. Though any small disturbance could bring a brief chance for rain showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Scattered snow showers and snow squalls will move through the region today. Gusty winds up to 30kts will continue through the afternoon. Will see CIGs return to VFR after 18z. This evening, winds will steadily begin to slacken and wind gusts up be near 20kts by 6Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.