textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and sunnier weather continues through Saturday.

* Potential wintry system Sunday night into Monday that could bring a mix of precipitation types north of Interstate 64 and rain south of 64.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain and warmer temperatures through much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A mildly amplified upper trough sits over the eastern CONUS with northwest flow directed into the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure stretches from the northeast to the southwest, through the CWA. This will keep winds light and variable before southwest to south winds fuel weak warm air advection this afternoon/evening. Under clear skies after some early fog, temperatures warm into the upper 50s to upper 60s with cooler temperatures in the east over the eastern Bluegrass and warmer temperatures to the west near Ohio County.

Tonight, as the surface high begins to slide off to the east, light warm air advection remains in place under clear skies. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the mid 30s to low 40s.

Saturday, the same overall pattern remains in place, but a surface trough along an approaching cold front will begin to nose east, up the Ohio River Valley. General warm air advection remains, but light winds become more variable. Under clear skies early in the day, highs climb into the low 60s along and north of Interstate 64 with temperatures warming to the south. Southern Kentucky could reach into the low 70s. Later in the afternoon/evening, increased cloud cover is expected to drop south over southern Indiana as the cold front begins sinking south.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

=====Saturday Evening - Monday=====

Increasing clouds mostly at mid levels will move through west to east on Saturday evening with the a small chance of a shower, though this small disturbance does not have much lift or moisture for measurable precipitation and looks to have mainly just passing clouds overhead. This will indicate the passing of a front that will stall over the Ohio River and towards central-east KY overnight bringing some cooler air north of the Ohio.

Sunday morning, clouds stick around with morning lows in the mid 30s to low 40s in southern areas. From the stalled out front over the Ohio, cooler air behind the front in northern areas will keep highs lower than in places closer to the TN border with highs ranging from the mid 40s north of the Ohio and upper 50s closer to TN. Clouds begin to increase though as moisture streams in along the front from the west. Lows Sunday night will range widely north to south, with areas north of the Ohio dipping into the upper 20s and near 40 closer to TN. Some WAA advection in lower to mid levels ahead of the next shortwave to move in late Sunday evening/early Monday morning will help push the front slightly to the north and east but the exact location of where the front moves to is currently still being determined. The location of the front will determine what p-type will fall across the area heading into Monday morning. Recent guidance is pushing the front farther and farther to the north, meaning mostly a rain event is possible, though a wintry mix, at least at the onset, can't be ruled out at this point. Despite the recent trends, a wintry mix is still expected, though plain rain is more likely in areas further south and west in the area. QPF remains low with area-wide totals ranging from under 0.1" to the south and up to 0.5" in northern areas closer to the frontal boundary. Highs on Monday will range according to the location of the front, with low 40s north and low 50s in the south.

=====Tuesday - Friday=====

By the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, the shortwave will have mostly cleared the area, though with some leftover isentropic lift, and the aforementioned frontal boundary moving north but still remaining close by, showers are possible for most of the day on Tuesday especially in northern areas, with rainy weather continuing into Tuesday night. Highs will improve on Tuesday though with WAA taking over the lower levels ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. The same stagnant pattern will persist through Wednesday with showers still possible and warmer highs in the low 60s north and low 70s to the south. Southern areas may dry out on Wednesday but this is still uncertain.

Finally by Thursday, enough energy from a low forming east of the Rockies will push the frontal boundary well to our north and boosting highs even more, expecting a range of upper 60s to low 70s area wide. Unsettled weather continues into the early part of next weekend as warmer than average temperatures look to remain for awhile along with constant chances of rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

High pressure over the region is keeping winds light and skies clear. This has led to strong radiative cooling which will cause fog later tonight, mainly at LEX and RGA. Other than the fog tonight, the rest of the period looks like VFR conditions will prevail.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.