textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely through Sunday, with temperatures expected to be 15-25 degrees above normal. Record high temperatures are likely on Sunday.

* A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday night. Showers and strong wind gusts of 40+ mph are likely. Localized severe wind gusts of 60+ mph are also possible, mainly between 7 PM Sunday and 3 AM EST Monday.

* Temperatures plummet into the 30s by Monday morning, with colder weather lingering through the middle of next week. Wind chills will reach the teens and may briefly drop into the single digits Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Latest surface analysis shows the stalled frontal boundary wavering across southern KY as current satellite shows widespread stratus over the region. In the upper levels, deep troughing exists over the Rockies with ridging over the eastern CONUS. The phasing of two shortwaves within the trough will begin this evening. As this system moves east, it'll undergo lee cyclogenesis resulting in a deepening surface low that will move from TX/OK to the Great Lake Sunday night.

As this system approaches, a tightening pressure gradient will result in strong SW winds with gusts during the day Sunday in the 25- 35 mph range. As a result, strong warm and moist air will advect over the region as surface dew points rise into the mid 60s and record breaking temperatures climb into the 70s (see climate section below). Most of the daytime will be dry, though there is a chance of a few showers, mainly north of the Parkways, before a strong cold front pushes through the region...more on that in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

By Sunday night, lee cyclogenesis of a 5H low pressure system will be ongoing over the Central Plains as upper level ridging exits to our east. At the surface, a deep low pressure center will have moved over the Great Great Lakes, with its attendant cold front making it's entry into the OH Valley. Earlier upstream convection will likely persist initially as a thin line of strong showers, possibly some embedded thunder, bringing strong to severe winds through the region. Models continue to advertise negligible instability as the line of showers moves into southern Indiana and central KY, but the kinematics are quite impressive. A stout SW 55-60kt LLJ will continue to advect warm, moist air into the region, with surface dew points around 60 degrees. Strong gradient winds ahead of the front will then give way to potential damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph along the line of strong showers. And as stated in the earlier discussion, "the primary risk is certainly localized damaging winds, but the tornado threat is non-zero. A lack of instability greatly reduces the tornado threat, but cannot completely rule out a brief, weak tornado given the strength of the LLJ and low-level SRH."

Cold air will quickly fill in behind the front, with the area experiencing a 30 degree drop in temperatures from midnight to sunrise Monday morning. Rain will likely transition to snow for a brief period early Monday morning as the cold catches up to the moisture. Otherwise, the story for the first half of the new week is dry and cold. Pressure gradient will take some time to relax, so expect another breezy day Monday. This will lend to some gelid wind chills in the teens Monday morning and in the single digits Tuesday morning. Expect high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s, Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A shortwave will drop into the base of the upper trough bringing a quick chance of light snow Thursday morning, but confidence remains low this far out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 617 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Weak frontal boundary remains situated across the region this evening, which has brought varying cigs to the terminals, with some MVFR and VFR conditions ongoing. We should see cigs build back across the terminals overnight, with MVFR expected for all. Could see some very light rain or sprinkles for the I-64 terminals, but confidence and chance of this remains quite low. Otherwise, look for sfc winds to drastically increase tomorrow, with SSW wind gusts approaching 30ks through the day and ahead of an approaching strong cold front.

In the extended forecast for SDF, a cold front will bring a thin line of gusty showers through Sunday evening, followed by a wind direction change to a gusty west flow. Westerly wind gusts around 35kts will be possible into Sunday night, which will create a notable crosswind for the north/south parallel runways.

CLIMATE

Issued at 232 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Record High Temperatures Likely Sunday...

Sun, Dec 28th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 70 (2021) | 73 LEX 67 (2021) | 72

BWG 72 (2021) | 76

FFT 69 (2021) | 72

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.