textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread rainfall today ranging from .75" - 1.5" for most across central and southern Kentucky. Localized amount of 2-3" inches are still possible this evening. Southern IN will see lighter totals of 0.25 - 0.5"

* Marginal Risk remains this evening for severe gusts and a 2% of a tornado in central KY. Severe weather risk diminishes greatly after sunset.

* Scattered showers and storms bring another threat of flash flooding where additional 1.5-2.5" are possible in our northern KY counties.

* Battle between a high to our NE and a low to our SW will determine who sees additional rain on Friday as below normal temperatures stick around through early next week.

..This Evening Through Wednesday Night

Showers and a line of developing stronger showers continue to move north towards southern Indiana this afternoon. A few isolated storms are possible later this evening that carry a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Strong to severe gusty winds along with a 5% of a tornado are possible with these storms over the next several hours. Clouds are breaking across south/central KY helping to destabilize the atmosphere. The added surface instability may be enough for storms to tap into a weakening SW jet moving in from the south to cause severe gusts or a tornado. However, as the evening wears on and we lose daytime heating, the severe threat will quickly diminish.

The larger threat is of flash flooding concerns as we've already training showers and very weak storms moving north in some areas. The Ohio County Mesonet site has reported 2.29" of rain already today within the past few hours. Flood advisories and a flash flood warning have been issued for our southwestern CWA and will expire as more spotty coverage of showers continue overnight. As night approaches, the mesolow creating all this rain will be drifting northward towards central IN, pushing an axis of deformation at low to mid levels with it. Moderate to at times heavy rain rates will be located along this deformation zone and will slowly move out of our CWA by tonight. Rainfall totals will be highest across central KY, ranging 0.75 - 1.5" by Wednesday morning, with lighter totals across southern IN ranging 0.25 - 0.5". Localized areas from any training storms like we saw in Ohio County this morning could see 2-4" in central KY, though most of the rain has fallen as we only expect scattered showers or storms this evening. Temperatures tonight range in the mid to upper 60s with broken to overcast cloud cover lowering throughout the night.

By Wednesday morning, despite a few spotty showers or drizzles, everyone remains rather calm with cloudy skies to start. As our mesolow is off to our north, southerly to SW flow will dominate in the morning, with skies beginning to break up by the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will depend greatly on the amount of cloud cover the CWA receives. Right now, we're forecasting upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon hours. As clouds begin to break with slightly drier air at mid levels working in, SBCAPE values will increase. PWATs at the surface will remain high with the highest values in our southern IN counties. The same mesolow from today will slowly move southeast into our NE border counties. With locally high PWATs close to the mesolow and increasing instability, weak storms or heavy showers are expected to form moving ESE in the afternoon/evening hours. Our NE counties have the greatest potential to see training showers and storms with 1-2" per hour rates expected. From soils already saturated from today's event, a Flood Watch has been issued for these NE border counties. Should storms train over the same areas, localized flooding and 1.5-2.5" of rain are possible. As Wednesday afternoon and evening draws closer, the Flood Watch will be amended as needed. Otherwise, no severe storms are expected and all areas dry out late in the evening with some partial clearing overnight.

..Thursday - Early Next Week

The synoptic pattern tries to change for drier weather for the rest of the week, though there is still some uncertainty how dry we remain, especially in our southern CWA. Thursday morning, calm winds at the surface along with some partial clearing could create some patchy fog considering all the moisture that will be around from this week's rains. This threat should be somewhat limited by an approaching low from the southern Plains as it pumps in low level and high level clouds from the SW. Current trends indicates that high pressure at mid levels will push in a dry NE flow that will help to keep any additional rain too far south, at least for Thursday afternoon, albeit with cloud cover. As a result, no rain is expected and highs should be a little cooler than normal despite recent NBM data suggesting highs in the low to mid 80s. We will likely be in the upper 70s with clouds on Thursday.

Friday morning lows will be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s as the low towards our SW moves slightly closer. A battle of influence between SW low level flow to NE mid level flow will continue. In southern areas, the low may track close enough to provide light to moderate rain in our southern CWA while everyone generally north of the Bluegrass parkway remains dry. Should the low track further south or the high pressure grow a little stronger, rain chances will be even lower. For now, the highest rain chances are in the south and west, with totals remaining lighter from a trace up to 0.5" in southern communities (25th - 75th percentile ranges).

Eventually, the high pressure wins by the weekend with dry NE flow dominating and cooler than average temperatures returning for everyone through the weekend and into early next week. Highs should be in the upper to low 70s through Tuesday, as the high pressure stays parked over the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 159 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain showers continue to push north, though a lull in activity is expected this afternoon and evening. Eventually, a band of rain will become more scattered showers overnight with winds remaining light. Easterly winds will gradually shift out of the S/SW by Wednesday morning with NW locations seeing the lowest ceilings and longest duration of shower chances. By Wednesday, ceilings in the morning will be in IFR to isolated LIFR heights, especially in the NW slowly raising to MVFR and VFR conditions later in the afternoon Wednesday when more scattered showers are possible late in the TAF period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for KYZ032-033-035>037-042-043. IN...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for INZ079.