textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy winds from the north gradually diminish this evening. Chilly tonight, with Tuesday morning lows in the low to mid 30s.

* Gradual warm-up with mainly dry conditions through at least Wednesday. * Scattered showers and storms possible late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Warmer on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 80s.

* Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms along a cold front on Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 326 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Sfc high pressure is building east over the Midwest this afternoon, and 10-20 mph breezes from the north continue to advect cooler, drier air into the region. This morning's stratus layer has mixed out, with mostly sunny skies noted across central KY and southern IN. Highs this afternoon will reach the low to mid 50s north of I- 64 and upper 50s to near 60 in southern KY.

Sfc high pressure will shift ESE across the Upper Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish to around 5 mph tonight as they veer easterly. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, with high clouds streaming overhead from the WNW. Temperatures are forecast to settle into the low to mid 30s in most areas for lows Tuesday morning. Skies look partly to mostly sunny on Tuesday, with just some scattered high clouds at times. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday night, upper level troughing will remain over the eastern US with a strengthening ridge over the Desert Southwest. It appears a subtle mid-level shortwave impulse could bring increasing cloud cover overnight. SW low-level flow will produce modest warm advection with the low-level ridge well east of the area. Look for lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 326 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The medium range starts off Wednesday with a strong upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico and West Texas. A potent upper level jet streak will be streaming from the Pacific Northwest across southern Canada. Weak low pressure at the sfc will develop across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. We'll see increasing SW low- level flow and WAA on Wednesday, with dry weather likely to continue. Temperatures will warm to around the 70 degree mark for highs.

Wednesday night, a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeast over the Lower OH Valley. A strengthening 35+ kt WSW low-level jet could help spark scattered showers and storms late in the night into Thursday morning. This occurs as a cold front sinks southeast into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.

By Thursday, the cold front continues to push south into the Midwest and Mid-MS Valley. Forecast models show an axis of moderate instability developing south of the front, from MO east across central IN and western OH. Numerous showers and thunderstorms appear possible, mainly to the north of our forecast area, Thursday afternoon and evening. This may allow temperatures to soar into the low to mid 80s Thu afternoon.

Our highest rain chances will be on Friday, with showers and a chance of thunderstorms mainly along and behind the cold front. This results in a low risk for severe weather due to stable conditions in the wake of the cold front.

Cool high pressure builds in behind the front for this weekend. Expect dry conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Many areas could dip below freezing early Saturday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Low stratus has mostly dissipated, and VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Northerly winds will remain occasionally gusty through 23Z this evening. Sfc high pressure shifts east across the Upper Ohio Valley tonight into Tuesday, which will cause light winds to veer easterly. SCT-BKN high clouds will stream ESE over the region late tonight into Tuesday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.