textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Winter Storm Warning now in effect for Saturday morning through Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Significant accumulations of snow and sleet across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and significant accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across southern KY. High probabilities of Major impacts through the weekend.

* Very cold temperatures well into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

These will be the last few hours temps will be above freezing for some time as we are about to go into a winter deep freeze for a prolonged period of time. For now, temperatures are ranging in the 30s to low 40s across the area with plenty of sunshine. Dry and quiet weather continues through the short term with cold high pressure building in behind a surface cold front tonight. Lows tonight drop into the teens and low 20s for most, with highs on Friday confined to the 20s across southern IN and northern KY. Southern KY may squeak above freezing for a few hours, but cold begins to take a firm hold of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 308 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A significant winter storm is expected to hit our region from Saturday morning through late Sunday evening. A The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Bitter cold air and wind chills will follow the storm into early to mid next week.

What's Changed Today...

- Winter Storm Watch upgraded to Winter Storm Warning

- More respect given to the warm nose, which will cut into snow totals across southern KY and increase ice amounts

- The axis of heaviest snow has also shifted northward and will reside along and north of the I-64 and Ohio River corridors

- A small amount of ice accumulation has crept northward to the I-64 corridor also with the stronger warm nose incorporated

Friday Night - Sunday Night...

We'll stay dry Friday night with expansive arctic high pressure in place from the upper Midwest to the mid Atlantic and New England. Our weekend storm system will be beginning to organize over the southern Plains and Red River Valley region as closed upper low off Baja California will start ejecting eastward. Look for cold overnight lows across our area with low temps expected to be in the upper single digits to mid teens. Given the cold temps and steady NE surface winds, our minimum wind chill values may drop into the 5 below to 5 above range. Will likely need a Cold Weather Advisory headline before any precipitation begins Friday night.

As we move into Saturday, our atmospheric column will steadily saturate as low level jetting responds beneath favorable upper jet dynamics over our area. Given the cold air in place, precipitation is expected to begin as all snow across the entire CWA. We'll be primed to accumulate from the get go as highs on Saturday should mostly be in the teens and low 20s.

Saturday through Saturday night, the right entrance region will continue to cook over our area with good deep frontogenetical forcing sloped across our CWA. Cross section analysis through this storm shows more vertical theta surfaces indicative of less stability in the WSS/CSI range. This is coincident with some slightly negative EPV values, which are another confirming source that heavier banded snowfall will occur within the broader expansive precipitation shield that will be in place. Given fully saturated soundings well through the DGZ, the frontogenetical component, and some less stable pockets of mid level airmass, fully expect that there will be periods of at least 1" per hour rates within heavier bands at times. This will allow snow totals to steadily accumulate, and at times, rapidly accumulate under moderate to heavy snow bands.

The final surge to this storm system occurs on Sunday as a briefly coupled upper jet structure allows for surface cyclogenesis somewhere to our south or east and more deep moisture pools ahead of the ejecting SW CONUS energy mentioned before. Warm nose could really surge across our CWA, or may stay more suppressed depending on the low level response beneath the upper jet dynamics. Have to imagine there will be a pretty cold/saturated precipitation shield in place across much of our CWA that may limit the northward advancement of the warm nose, however it usually still finds a way. Any mixed precipitation during the day on Sunday, may then change back to snow on Sunday evening/night as cold advection at all levels takes back hold as the system begins to depart. Could have one final surge in snow totals as cold air comes blasting in.

The other critical piece of this forecast will be in the strength/depth of the warm nose, and how far north this feature makes it. So far, seeing pretty typically behaved model solutions with NAM being the warmest/farthest north solution, and the GFS consistently on the colder side of the envelope. Our forecast continues to lie as a compromise between these extremes and closer resembling a Canadian/ECMWF blend. This keeps the most substantial freezing rain amounts mainly along and south of the parkways where a tenth to a third of an inch of ice would be possible. Locally higher amounts not out of the question. Here, snow totals will also be lesser as the warm nose wins out and changes over to sleet and then freezing rain. North of this line, expect more sleet and snow, or all snow. We have continued to see a steady northward trend with the warm nose and 22/13z NBM data continues this theme. It is possible more of the mixed precipitation makes it north of the parkways and closer to the I-64 corridor or Ohio River so have included small amounts of ice accum up that far.

As far as amounts go, will call for mostly snow along and north of I- 64 and the Ohio River, where snowfall amounts are expected to range between 10 and 15". Locally, amounts of 15"+ seem like a reasonable possibility somewhere across our northern CWA. Along and south of the Parkways, looking for a lot more sleet to mix in, as well as freezing rain. Here, total snow and sleet amounts between 4 and 10" are expected with ice amounts up to a third of an inch. Locally, ice amounts up around a half an inch are possible around the Lake Cumberland region.

Monday - Thursday...

Bitter cold air and a mostly dry pattern look to take hold for mid week as arctic high pressure builds in behind the departing system. Looking for lows in the lower single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings (possibly colder with fresh snow pack?) and highs only in the teens on Monday. We'll try to slightly moderate through mid week, but will stay well below normal with lows in the teens and highs only in the 20s. Any power outages left over from the storm could be exacerbated by the prolonged magnitude of the cold. In addition, snow won't be going anywhere given the temps.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period. Scattered mid- and high-level clouds will move across the region later tonight, with light and variable winds expected through the first half of the overnight period. Early Friday morning, winds will pick up out of the north, first at HNB/SDF before spreading to the south and east later in the morning. Sustained winds of 8-15 kt are expected during the day on Friday, with a few 20-25 kt gusts possible for late morning through the afternoon, especially at HNB and SDF.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.