textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Sub-freezing temperatures possible early this morning in the Bluegrass Region.

* Mainly dry and warmer for the rest of the week.

* Chance for showers (30-40%) and a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms Friday afternoon - Friday night across southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions are cool and dry early this morning. Skies are mostly clear, though we do have thin cirrus spreading across south-central KY as well as SCT mid-level clouds developing across Indiana. Temperatures currently range from the mid/upper 30s in the Bluegrass to the mid 40s in southern KY. Lows this morning are still expected to reach the lower 30s in the Bluegrass Region, with temps across south-central KY settling into the mid/upper 30s. Areas roughly along and east of the Kentucky River have a higher chance (greater than 50%) of temps briefly dropping below freezing around sunrise. After coordination with surrounding NWS offices, no additional changes to the current Freeze Warning and Special Weather Statement are planned.

A mid-level closed low and associated sfc wave are positioned over southern Saskatchewan early this morning. This low pressure system is forecast to rotate east near the international border today before lifting northeast across James Bay Thursday morning. A relatively weaker upper level shortwave trough will slide east over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South today. Locally, we will see SCT- BKN high clouds spread overhead. High clouds are forecast to thicken this afternoon and evening.

The lower levels will again remain fairly dry today. High pressure will drift over the East Coast, and developing southerly return flow will advect warmer air into the region. Expect afternoon temperatures to rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s, with mid 70s possible in portions of west-central and southern KY. Tonight, expect high clouds to gradually exit off to the east. Increasing SW winds in the lower levels will keep conditions milder ahead of a cold front sinking southeast through the Midwest. Expect overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s for most, though I could see our coolest low-lying spots in the Bluegrass dropping into the upper 30s/low 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

On Thursday, the lead upper level wave and sfc low are forecast to race northeast across eastern Canada. The long trailing cold front will stall over northern portions of IL/IN. High pressure will remain in control over the Mid-South and Appalachians, leaving us with sunny skies and warm SW flow. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s will be possible.

Additional upper level shortwave disturbances will rotate across Canada and the Great Lakes heading into Friday. The weak cold front is finally expected to sink southeast into the Ohio Valley Friday- Friday night as strong sfc high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Given moisture pooling and weak ascent tied to the boundary, there is a chance (30-40%) for showers Friday afternoon through Friday night in southern IN and north-central KY. There is also a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms.

A slight chance for a shower could linger into Saturday due to lingering moisture and the stalled boundary left behind. However, this is pretty low confidence and much of the weekend looks dry. Upper level ridging will build east over the MS Valley and OH Valley downstream of deeper troughing over the West Coast. Saturday will feature a larger north-south temperature gradient across the frontal boundary. However, expect a very warm Sunday with deeper SW flow in place and stronger ridging aloft. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s.

Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase early next week as multiple smaller scale disturbances develop northeast across the Plains and Midwest. It is possible our highest chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms holds off until mid to late next week, with the bulk of the convective activity still off to our northwest early in the week. The latest ensemble guidance/pattern suggest some strong to severe storms could also be possible around the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout this TAF cycle as 1037mb high pressure centered over the NE US maintains influence over the region. Latest surface analysis places a low pressure system over the Central Plains, which will track over the Great Lakes by tomorrow resulting in increasing high cloud cover over the OH Valley throughout the day today. Expect winds to gradually veer from E to S over the course of the day. A low level jet will skirt by HNB overnight, which could flirt with LLWS conditions.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ037-042-043. IN...None.