textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Tomorrow, gusty southwest winds lift highs to the upper 80s to low 90s.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the region late Thursday night through Friday night. Showers may return across southern KY through Saturday night.

* Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Through the day tomorrow, the Lower Ohio Valley remains uneventful with light zonal flow overhead and high pressure in place at the surface from a high centered off the East Coast. To the west, in the Four Corners region, an upper low with a nearby surface low is sliding slowly to the east, increasing the pressure gradient over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, driving southwest winds and warm air advection. Winds will ease some, but light WAA will will limit falling temperatures to the 60s tonight before temperatures warm to the upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow as the pressure gradient continues to increase, causing southwest winds to gust to 25-30 mph. We will see scattered upper level clouds, but low levels remain dry.

Thursday night, the aforementioned closed upper low begins to dissipate as it gets picked up by stronger zonal flow to the north, remaining north of an upper high parked over the Southeast. Underneath this at the surface, a northeast to southwest oriented cold front will slide through Indiana and the Ozarks towards the CWA. Southern flow ahead of the front will increase precipitable water values from around an inch to closer to two along the front.

Around midnight, rain chances begin to increase from the west and push east over the CWA with peak rain chances lasting through the day Friday. Model soundings continue to show a very stable column. Thunder isn't ruled out, but nothing severe is expected. Around half of an inch to around an inch is expected across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. CAA behind the front is expected to drop temperatures into the 70s through the weekend.

By Saturday morning, rain chances are expected to be south of central Kentucky before a chance of light rain works back north into the CWA Saturday night.

Sunday, an upper trough moving over the Great Lakes pushes a large surface high southeast through the Upper Plains and Midwest, helping to push high pressure behind the front into the Ohio Valley, bringing an end to rain chances. Mostly clear skies become common into early next week. The continued CAA is expected to limit highs to the upper 60s for our northern communities on Monday and Tuesday before the center of the surface high passes east of the CWA, returning WAA and slightly warmer temperatures for midweek.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 726 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Light winds tonight will give way to southwesterly gusts over 20 knots after around 14z Thursday, easing after around 23z. Though not mentioned in the TAFs, marginal low level wind shear (LLWS) will be present overnight tonight with south winds increasing from 5 kt at the surface to 30-35 kt at 1kft.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.