textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry with below normal temperatures through Thursday night. Chilly mornings Thursday and Friday.

* Warmer with scattered storm chances returning Saturday.

* Much warmer weather arrives this weekend, with near record highs possible Sunday and Monday (near 90).

* Additional showers and thunderstorms appear likely next Tuesday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Cold front is mostly through our CWA at this hour, and will continue to pass through through the late afternoon. Surface gusts of 15 to 25 mph are expected to persist until at least sunset, if not a little beyond sunset, before the pressure gradient begins to slacken with high pressure starting to build in. Do expect a batch of post frontal stratocu to slide across our northern CWA later this afternoon into this evening, but pretty dry low levels (large T/Td spreads), so no precipitation expected.

Chilly night in store as temps dip into the low and mid 40s for much of the area behind this cold front. There is some potential to get cooler than the low 40s in our decoupled and sheltered valleys, however surface winds do look to stay up a bit, so not real confident in that scenario. Dew points are expected to drop into the mid 30s across our eastern CWA tonight, so plenty of room to fall if our typical cool spots are able to fully decouple. Upper 30s do seem possible for a few spots.

Thursday and Thursday night will be dry with surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge axis building into the area. Temperatures will be well below normal with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overall, these values will be about 7-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Another chilly night Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 40s for most. Decoupled eastern valleys will once again have the chance to creep into the upper 30s. Can't rule out some patchy frost for any of the typical cool spots that decouple given a better radiational cooling night as the surface high centers just to the east.

The upper ridge axis pushes east on Friday with a more zonal/progressive upper flow pattern taking hold. A subtle shortwave on Friday could kick off a few isolated showers, mainly along and north of I-64. Temps on Friday warm back near normal in the mid 70s to around 80 for highs.

Later Friday night into Saturday, another subtle shortwave embedded in the flow could act as a trigger for additional precipitation chances. This time, there will be some moderate instability to work with, and coverage is expected to range from scattered across KY to numerous across southern IN. Not a lot of deep layer shear to work with for this setup, so mostly pulse storm modes expected. However, there could be just enough shear for perhaps some multicell clusters. Perhaps a Marginal hail or wind threat develops for Saturday, mainly due to the moderate instability (~1500 J/KG of ML CAPE). Assuming scattered to numerous convective showers/storms don't ruin the party, temperatures will be notably warm on Saturday, solidly in the mid 80s (83-87F).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Sunday - Monday...

The mid/upper-level ridge over the SE CONUS becomes more amplified and builds over our region, allowing for dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 80s are forecast, with some places potentially getting into the 90s. The most recent LREF guidance only gives a 5-15% chance for highs in the 90s on Sunday, with 15-25% chances on Monday. With dew points in the low-to- mid 60s forecast, apparent temperatures will likely be in the low 90s during the afternoon both days.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

A shortwave and associated surface low ejects out of the central Plains to the upper Midwest Monday evening, with its cold front moving towards the Ohio Valley. The front stalls out in a SW-NE orientation over central Kentucky late Tuesday afternoon, acting as a pipeline for several perturbations to move over the area. The stalled boundary will also help pool moisture over the area, with LREF PW values around 1.5" along the front(~95th percentile for climatology). Showers and thunderstorms will begin Monday night, likely lasting through the end of the day on Wednesday. With decent instability in place ahead of the front (> 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from LREF Tuesday afternoon), a few storms could be stronger and produce heavier rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday will still be very warm, with highs in the upper 80s (LREF 15-25% chance of exceeding 90). As the front drifts to the southeast late Wednesday, we will finally see the end of our unseasonably warm stretch of temperatures, with highs only in the low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Cold front has passed through HNB/SDF/BWG, and will be passing LEX/RGA shortly. Gusty WNW to NW winds should persist through sunset, and may linger until around Midnight for some sites. Could see a FEW-SCT layer of cumulus later this afternoon and evening across the northern TAF sites (HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA). High pressure builds in behind the front with winds going light out of the north through the overnight. Surface winds pick up again out of the NW by mid to late morning on Thursday, but won't be as strong as today.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.