textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and dry weather expected today through Saturday. Advisory- level gradient winds, especially for the northern half of the CWA, are expected on Friday.

* Strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night and Monday morning. Strong gradient winds are expected ahead and behind the front. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a wind damage threat.

* Much colder conditions are expected for much of early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A 1032 mb surface high over the Great Plains and extending into the Ohio Valley is providing us with quiet and cool conditions today, lasting into the early overnight hours. For tonight, an upper-level shortwave will eject across the northern Plains towards the upper Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will rapidly deepen ahead of the wave, with guidance showing a sub 990 mb low by midday Friday. As a result, height and pressure falls will take place to our northwest, with southerly winds increasing after midnight. Mid- level clouds will begin to cover the region as the system approaches, and the combination of that and increasing southerly winds will limit overnight temperatures only dropping into the upper 30s/low 40s.

Friday will be milder and windy across the area as the low moves across Michigan and into Ontario by the late afternoon/early evening. With guidance depicting a 55-65 kt LLJ moving over the area Friday morning through early Friday afternoon, we expect to see some of that wind reach the surface through daytime BL mixing. As a result, we are issuing a Wind Advisory due to wind gusts up to 45-50 mph for most of the northern half of the CWA, starting early Friday morning and ending shortly after sunset. The main area of rainfall will stay off to our north, and afternoon temperatures are expected to get into the low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 351 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Saturday through Monday Night...

Cold front from Friday is expected to drop into TN and stall out in the morning. This front will then lift back to the north as a warm front during the day on Saturday. This will lead to a gradient of temperatures across the region. Highs will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across southern Indiana with readings near 70 along the KY/TN border. Overall, the weather is expected to be quiet with light southeast winds eventually becoming southwest with just scattered high clouds. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower 50s.

For Sunday, there has not been much change in the medium range guidance with the Sunday cold frontal passage. All the models show a strong/deep trough axis deepening across the Midwest with a strong surface low pressure moving through IA/northern IL and into MI Sunday night and Monday. A trailing front to the southwest of the low pressure system will move through the region Sunday night.

Ahead of the cold front during the day on Sunday, a broad southwest wind flow will be seen with an quickly increasing pressure gradient. This will result wind gusts of 40-45 mph during the afternoon which will likely result in a Wind Advisory being needed in future forecasts. LREF probs here for greater than 40mph winds during the day on Sunday are 50-80%. Strong warm advection will be seen with highs warming well into the lower-middle 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, with upper 70s across far southern Kentucky. Model soundings show plentiful capping across the region on Sunday, so precipitation chances look very low, if at all here.

For Sunday night, trailing cold front will push into the region from the west in the overnight period. Ahead of the front, the southerly flow will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s across the region. We expect a strongly forced line of convection to develop along the cold front and spread eastward overnight. Considerable spread and uncertainty remains regarding instability. However, there is plenty of shear to support organized convection providing a wind damage threat. While the day 4 SPC risk remains west of the area, changes to the risk area are possible if moisture trends upward in future forecasts. Behind the front, we expect a dramatic temperature drop (probably 30+ degrees over 3-6 hours) with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 20s to the lower 30s by sunrise Monday. During the day on Monday, residual lift and moisture underneath the upper trough will likely produce numerous snow showers with the possibility of some light accumulations. Highs will likely remain in the low-mid 30s. The upper trough will slide east Monday night with clearing skies and continued cold advection. Lows Monday night will drop into the middle-upper teens with wind chills likely falling into the single digits.

Tuesday through Thursday...

For the extended period, the upper flow across the Ohio Valley and into the eastern US will remain in a northwest flow pattern. We will be on the watch for a clipper system that that may bring additional snows to the region in the Tuesday night to Wednesday morning time frame. After the clipper passes, upper ridging will start to build in from the west with a moderating temperature pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 746 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. The concerns during the period will be gusty winds and low level wind shear which should begin tonight between 8-11z. Low level wind shear is expected to end around 15z, but gusty winds will continue through most of the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ025-029-030. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ031>043- 045>049-055>057-067. IN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.