textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Quick moving clipper system will bring a period of wintry weather to the region on Friday, mainly across southeastern Indiana and into northeastern Kentucky. A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for our northeastern forecast area.

* Additional light snow chances are possible Friday night as lake- enhanced bands drop southward across the region.

* Weekend will start off cold, but model trends continue to show warming temperatures late this weekend and into next week. The next chance of precipitation, in the form of rain, arrives by Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a batch of mid-high level cloudiness moving southeast across the region. Model guidance has really struggled with temperatures this afternoon as the models are not resolving the amount of snow/ice pack that we have on the ground. Current temperatures ranged from the upper teens to around 20 across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. A light southeast, warm advective flow, has become established across the I-65 corridor and points west. In the I-65 corridor, temps were mainly in the lower 20s with mid-upper 20s down in the Bowling Green area, south of the current snow/ice pack.

For the remainder of the afternoon, a mix of sun and clouds are expected, and temps may rise 1-2 degrees or so before falling back into the teens for the evening hours. Moving into the overnight period, a stronger upper level disturbance will drop into the region from the northwest. A continued southwest flow ahead of this system, combined by increasing cloud cover should allow temps to slowly rise overnight. Initially, we'll see temps drop back into the teens, but most guidance show us rising into the mid-upper 20s by morning.

Moving into the day on Friday, aforementioned upper level disturbance will drop toward the Ohio Valley from the northwest. While moisture will be overall limited, fairly strong low-level and synoptic scale lift will allow a swath of precipitation to develop and drop southeast across the region. Model solutions still have a bit of spread, but the multi-model consensus suggests the best chances of precipitation to occur mainly east of a line from Salem, Indiana to Mount Vernon, Kentucky. As for precipitation type, model soundings continue to show good saturation within the DGZ and cold profile for snow mainly east of a line from Madison, IN to roughly Beatyville, KY. To the west of that line, somewhat lesser amounts of moisture are forecast to reside within the DGZ, and there is a warmer nose of air aloft that will likely result in a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow. There may be a threat of freezing rain if the near surface temperature forecast by the models is too warm. To the west of the I-65 corridor, most model soundings indicate plain rain. In fact, the models do show an impressive thermal gradient across the region as temperatures across the I-165 corridor and points east may see temps rise into the upper 40s to near 50 during the afternoon hours.

This clipper is moving at a pretty good forward motion, so the overall duration of snowfall combined with marginal thermal profiles suggests that most accumulations will be on the order of a coating to an inch or less. Some isolated 2 inch amounts can't be ruled out across the far northeast sections of the Bluegrass, mainly across portions of Scott/Harrison/Nicholas/Bourbon counties. After coordinating with surrounding offices, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas expected to stay mostly snow during the event. This includes most areas south and east of a line from Madison Indiana southeast to roughly Winchester, KY. We'll continue to watch thermal profiles with future model data. If solutions trend a little colder, a slight westward adjustment of the advisory area could be required in subsequent forecasts. A Special Weather Statement has been issued just west of the advisory area to convey the threat of mixed wintry precipitation.

Behind the clipper system, we'll see strong cold advection that will send temperatures back into the teens across southeast Indiana and across portions of north-central and much of east-central Kentucky. A secondary cold front combined with a strong northerly fetch off the Great Lakes probably will send a few feeder bands southward across central Indiana and down into Kentucky. It is rather difficult at this time range to determine exactly where these mesoscale bands will set up, but the majority of available guidance suggest areas east of I-65 would have the highest chances of additional snow shower activity. The combination of the snow showers and cold temps may produce slick road conditions Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Moving into Saturday, we'll be in a deeper northerly flow aloft on the back side of the departing upper level wave. Overall Saturday looks to be mainly dry, but some scattered snow streamers off the Great Lakes could be around the region. However, the best chances look to be to our north and northeast. Highs will likely exhibit a gradient across the region with lower 20s over the Bluegrass and mid- upper 20s in the I-65 corridor, with lower 30s down across the I-165 corridor and our southwest. Lows Saturday night will dip into the single digits in the northeast to the upper teens to around 20 in the southwest.

By Sunday, we'll get into a return flow pattern with the surface high expected to be off to our northeast. Despite having a southwest flow, I believe the NBM will be way too fast with the eventual warm up. This is because the models will continue to misjudge the extent of snow/ice pack across the region. Our snow/ice pack is pretty thick, given our water equivalents over the last few days is still in excess of an inch. Therefore, I suspect that temperature guidance will likely trend downward over the weekend, but we will see overall temperatures increase, especially across the southern areas where snowpack is non-existant. For now, will go with highs in the lower-mid 30s across the northeast with highs in the low-mid 40s across the southwest. Lows Sunday night should be a bit warmer with readings generally in the 30s.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper ridging will hold sway across the region and mild southwest winds should bring warmer air into the region. Again, given the thick snowpack, radiational budgets may tend to see most of that warm going to melt snow/ice rather than heat the near surface air. Blended guidance is suggesting highs in the low-mid 40s north of the Parkways with mid-upper 50s across the south. Overall, the southern area forecast temps look decent, but I have my doubts on the temps north of the Parkways. The key here is that we'll start seeing decent melting once we get dewpoints above 32 which should be by Monday afternoon. Highs Tuesday are probably too warm via the blend which suggests mid-upper 50s, it may end up being 5-10 degrees cooler than that. However, across southern KY, highs in the lower 60s are likely attainable.

Next weather system looks to impact the region late Tuesday and Wednesday as a mid-level wave pushes east-northeast across the Ohio Valley. Thermal profiles here are warm for all rain with this system. Latest models suggest that we'll have some residual baroclinic boundary setting up across the region for Thursday and into Friday, likely modulated by the retreating snowpack. Thus, plentiful cloud cover and scattered showers looks possible here with temps in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Terminals are VFR at this hour, with some light radar returns across the region, but light precip is struggling to make it to the ground. VFR cigs will continue tonight, with clouds lowering by tomorrow morning to MVFR ahead of our next system. Light snow chances are possible at LEX/RGA tomorrow, and perhaps a rain-snow mix at SDF. Cigs could lower to IFR at LEX and RGA tomorrow, with other terminals below fuel alternate thresholds. Besides these impacts, winds look to increase and become gusty tomorrow late morning and afternoon, with WNW gusts to 25kts possible.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for KYZ032-033-035>037-041>043-049. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for INZ079.