textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers expected to increase across the region this morning with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms pushing through southern Indiana and north/east-central Kentucky this morning into the early afternoon.

* Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening and into the overnight period. Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds and some marginally severe hail. A band of showers and embedded storms is expected to push through the region on Thursday.

* A lull in precipitation is expected on Friday where temperatures will be well above normal and could break high temperatures records Friday afternoon. A frontal boundary will move through the region on Saturday bringing another round of showers/storms.

* Rainfall amounts through Saturday will average between 2-3 inches in southern Indiana with 1-2 inches between the Ohio River and the WK/BG Parkway region. South of the Parkways, a half to one and half inches of rainfall will be possible. Some minor hydro issues may be seen through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Early morning observations show mostly cloudy skies across the region with temperatures in low-mid 50s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, with upper 50s to the lower 60s across southern Kentucky. A warm frontal boundary was situated north of the region roughly along the I-70 corridor. This boundary has been a focus of persistent convection over the last several hours. Area VAD wind profiles from the 88D's show a fairly decent low-level jet axis out to our west across western TN/KY into southern Indiana. Combination of isentropic lift and the low-level jet has resulted in a southward expansion of showers recently across southern Indiana and into portions of north-central and east-central KY.

For the remainder the overnight hours, stalled out frontal boundary looks to drop southward a bit in response to a weak perturbation moving through the Great Lakes. The recent model trends in the last 6 hours have been to slow the southward progression of this front a bit. As of this writing, the boundary looks to remain north of the Ohio River through sunrise. Additional convective development may fire over southwestern Indiana in the next few hours and drift east- southeast along and north of the I-64 corridor. Model soundings show this convection to be elevated in nature. So brief heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder are expected. Rainfall amounts of a half to inch will be possible across our northern row of southern Indiana counties.

Moving into the daylight hours, elevated convection will likely be in progress along/north of the I-64 corridor this morning. Some additional development to the south of the I-64 corridor down to say the BG/WK Parkway region seems plausible, though a higher coverage of convection looks likely over in the Bluegrass region. Much of this convection will be elevated in nature with moderate to locally heavy rainfall and some embedded thunder. If a stronger cell were to develop, some small hail could occur. Convection looks to slide off to the east by mid-afternoon or so with a relative lull in convection into the afternoon hours. Highs on the day will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s north of the Parkways, with upper 70s across southern Kentucky.

Attention then turns to this afternoon/evening where another mid- level perturbation approaches the region from the west. Growing signal in the data suggests that we'll see destabilization take place across the region as a band of colder air aloft pushes into the region. Low-mid level lapse rates steepen quite a bit with shear values rising into the 25-30kt range. Current thinking is that isolated-scattered convection may develop in areas west of the I-65 corridor. Strong/severe storms are possible here and based on soundings a wind damage/large hail threat would be the primary hazards. As the perturbation moves through, upscale growth into some sort of linear line may occur. This line would push across central KY this evening weakening with eastward extent as instability diminishes east of the I-65 corridor.

We expected to see another lull in the convective activity into the overnight hours. However, secondary perturbation and surface cold front to the west will push into the region by sunrise Thursday bringing another band of showers/storms to the region. This front will likely stretch out as flow aloft become zonal again and then retreat back northward as a warm front Thursday night. The front bisecting the region on Thursday will yield a gradient of temperature. North of the front, temps will be in the upper 60s to near 70, with readings south of the front in the mid-upper 70s.

QPF through Thursday night will feature 1-2 inches of rainfall across southern Indiana with a half to one inch across Kentucky. Locally higher amounts could occur in swaths where training of storms may occur. This could result in localized flooding issues, especially across southern Indiana where a longer residence time of rainfall is expected.

Friday looks to feature another break in the active weather with the frontal boundary located to our north. A broad southwest flow pattern will develop across the region. With partly cloudy skies expected, temps are expected to shoot up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Record highs at the climate sites could be broken Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 314 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Saturday through Tuesday...

Moving into the weekend, fairly amplified upper flow pattern is expected across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western CONUS and a stout ridge across the southwestern Atlantic and SE US. Shortwave trough axis aloft will move from the Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday and this will drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley. A broad southwest flow ahead of the front will provide plentiful moisture for the front to interact with. We expect another round of shower and storms to accompany the front as it heads through the region. Bulk shear values are not all high on Saturday with the models showing about 25-30kts of shear. Low-mid level lapse rates are rather marginal as well. Overall, the threat of strong/severe is conditional depending on how much surface based instability can be generated out ahead of the line. Another half to one inch of rainfall can be expected with the showers/storms and that could result in localized hydro concerns across the region.

Cold front should exit the region Saturday night with a broad zonal flow aloft developing across the region. This should bring a much drier weather pattern to the area for Sunday and Monday. Another trough axis will move into the Plains by late Monday and Tuesday which will allow our flow to return to a southwest based regime. A few weak perturbations could spark a few showers on Tuesday.

We'll see a slightly cooler airmass across the region on Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 60s. Temps look to rebound into the 70s on Monday and may warm into the upper 70s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 110 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Bands of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east/northeastward across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this afternoon. HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA will be the main TAF sites affected over the next couple hours before a brief break in the activity occurs. Another round of rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms is possible starting in the late afternoon hours and continuing into the early overnight, primarily impacting the northern TAF sites. Southerly winds will become gusty in the final few hours of the TAF period as a compact wave moves over the region. Another round of showers is possible with this wave across all TAF sites except for RGA. VFR ceilings for SDF/LEX/RGA/BWG will persist through the TAF period, with ceilings dropping to MVFR for HNB after 9z. For TAF sites that do experience thunderstorms, brief reductions in visibility and ceilings dropping to MVFR could take place.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.