textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chilly but dry Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

* Next system Saturday night into Sunday brings an early onset of rain, snow or a mix before changing over to all rain.

* Slushy accumulation of a coating to possibly an inch for southern IN on Saturday.

* Monday into Tuesday has the potential of seeing snow or rain/snow across the region with some potential accumulations for parts of our area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Trough axis will swing across the Ohio Valley this morning as sfc high pressure to our west slowly builds in over the Ohio Valley today into Friday. Upper trough will also slowly work eastward keep us under northwest flow aloft today with slight ridging developing on Friday. This will continue to advect in cold air from the north and keeping temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. With highs in the upper 30s/low 40s today and only the mid 30s to low 40s on Friday. Lows Friday morning into Saturday morning will also range between 10-15 degrees below normal in the low 20s with a few locations dropping down into the teens across the Bluegrass.

Sfc pressure gradient will remain tight over the Ohio Valley for today. Gusty, blustery westerly winds will be around in the afternoon, gusts will be between 20-25 mph making it feel like it is around 30 in the upper 20s. We will remain dry with mainly clear skies into Friday evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 358 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A another system will take shape over the central Plains on Saturday then work to the east-northeast through northern IN towards Lake Erie by Sunday evening. Warmer air will advect in from the south ahead of the approaching system pushing our temperatures into the low/mid 40 Saturday afternoon and increasing clouds due to isentropic lifting. Precipitation will spread from the west- northwest to the east during the day Saturday. Initially, precipitation could fall as a wintry mix of rain/snow due to lingering cold air at the surface early on Saturday. Still some discrepancy in the forecast models when it comes to any accumulating snow. Current thinking is with a warm ground and temperatures warming to above freezing as the precipitation arrives, most will see rain with any slushy accumulations of a coating to near an inch will be over southern IN, with higher amounts as you work northward into central IN. All of the precipitation should transition over to all rain by late in the day into Saturday night and into Sunday. Most of the precipitation should be out of the CWA by Sunday evening.

Surface high will build in behind the departing system and a cold front Sunday night into Monday. Another round of colder air will work into the area with lows in the mid 20s Monday morning and highs in the mid/upper 30s on Monday with mainly dry conditions during the day.

The next impactful system looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday with better chances of most of the area seeing some snow. The challenge in the deterministic models is how much moisture will be available and how strong will this system be as it develops over the western Gulf Monday and then and then slides over the southeast US Monday night into Tuesday. Right now the GFS is the most bullish with its 00z run bring the most moisture and potentially higher snow amounts while the EURO is keeping most of the moisture on the southern and eastern side of the system.

Weather turns drier but remains chilly from Wednesday into Thursday with highs in the low/mid 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 649 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR will be the prevailing flight categories through the forecast. An area of low stratus has formed to our north across central IN. While confidence is not currently high, it is possible we get those to move into HNB, SDF and LEX this morning. For now, kept them out but went SCT around 5000Ft but could see 2500-3000 ft clouds from the clouds to the north. Winds will be westerly and could gust to near 20kts. Once sun sets winds diminish and with high pressure building in, skies will clear out. .

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.