textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures expected through the week.

* Additional rainfall returns mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 436 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today, mostly zonal flow remains overhead as a pressure gradient remains over the Lower Ohio Valley, sitting between a surface high to the east over the Atlantic and a low to the west over the Plains. This is keeping southwest winds gusting to around 20 mph which will increase to 25-30 mph for some this afternoon. Not only are temperatures going to continue to warm into the 70s to low 80s, but moisture is also being funneled into the valley. PWATs are increasing to around an inch which is expected to lead to additional low-level cloud cover. The low-level jet and weak shortwave that was expected to produce some light precipitation early this morning looks to be farther north, so chances have been lowered. Still believe there is a low chance for a sprinkle or light shower later this morning into the afternoon east of Interstate 65. Model soundings show limited instability with pockets of dry air, so not expecting much.

Tonight, the overall pattern remain the same with breezy southwest winds keeping lows mostly in the low to mid 60s. These temperatures may be too low as the WAA will make it hard to cool, even under mostly clear skies.

Tuesday, continued WAA drives temperatures into the 80s. Additional cloud cover is likely, but the chances of precipitation continue to fall as most weather/precipitation remains well north of the region near the Great.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 436 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low passes east through New York state while dragging a cold front towards the CWA. The system has shifted slightly farther south with each day's data, but with the cold front remaining over central Indiana, this could keep the heaviest moisture north of the CWA, closer to the front. Over the CWA, PWATs continue increasing to around 1.25-1.3".

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and last through most of Wednesday before ending early Wednesday night. There continues to be little chance for anything severe given the weak shear, but a thunderstorm could produce gusty winds with the little bit of expected instability. With the front expected to remain farther north now, high temperatures continue to increase for Wednesday into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Wednesday night, guidance continues to show a shortwave, digging south through New Mexico into Texas, in the middle of a split upper jet. The shortwave will help develop an upper trough and surface low over the eastern Plains before quickly pushing the low northeast towards Lake Michigan. This would keep the bulk of precipitation chances north of the CWA, making for a mostly dry Thursday, but isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected.

By Thursday night, PWATs increase to 1.25-1.5" ahead of the system's cold front. This did look like a better chance for widespread showers/thunderstorms yesterday, but some guidance has dropped available moisture slightly and limits most of the activity to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Still looks like a good shot for fairly widespread precipitation, but overall amounts and coverage have trended down. Scattered activity remain through the day on Friday. The severe threat looks pretty low. Temperatures remain in the 70s to low 80s through Saturday.

Saturday into Saturday night, a stronger cold front is expected to push through the area. This could bring a return of high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday, The GFS has the front arriving in the CWA Saturday afternoon while the Euro is slower, arriving Saturday night. Regardless, all the the data keeps the severe threat low, only bringing an additional line of showers and possible thunderstorms to the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Remaining low level wind shear will end by 13z, but gusty south- southwest winds remain through the period. Gusts will quickly increase to 25-30 knots in most places with increased VFR level cloud cover. A few isolated to scattered showers will also be possible over LEX and RGA. Believe showers should remain south of SDF and east of BWG.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.