textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon. Peak afternoon heat indices of 95-105 are possible.

* An approaching cold front Thursday Night/Friday will provide another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.

* After a dry Saturday, an unsettled and overall cooler pattern takes hold for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Currently, an MCS continues to work its way through central Indiana and Illinois as it continues its push to the east-southeast. Overall, the system continues to slowly weaken and is keeping its stronger activity moving east, well north of our southern Indiana counties. In the coming hours, the remnants of this system could enter some of our southern Indiana counties, but we aren't expecting much before any remaining showers would fade. This will likely bring some additional cloud cover to the northern half of the CWA, but with surface high pressure parked over the Southeast and a surface low centered over the western Plains, southwest winds continue flowing into the Lower Ohio Valley. Not only is this providing WAA, but it's also carrying moisture into the region. This with a good amount of sunshine will help lift temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s, and with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat index values are expected to climb into the 90s and possibly low 100s. This has prompted a Special Weather Statement to be issued for the areas with the highest expected heat index values above 95.

Tonight, as a surface low passes through the Great Lakes region, its trailing cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms towards the CWA. Given the time of day (or in our case night), we expect this line to weaken as it approaches from the northwest. With the low levels becoming more stable, our chance for a stronger storm drops. The best chances for a strong storm remain northwest of the CWA. As the front continues to the southeast through the night and into Friday, convection is expected to continue to weaken and become more scattered. This precipitation could help drop temperatures tonight into the upper 60s for some in southern Indiana with most across the rest of the CWA seeing the low to mid 70s before temperatures warm back into the 80s on Friday, but with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Upper high pressure will remain over the southern CONUS. This will continue to guide system after system moving along the bottom of the upper trough through the Lower Ohio Valley.

By Friday night, the cold front is expected to be southeast of the CWA. This will allow a surface high to slide in over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but don't count on any CAA as zonal flow quickly pushes the high off to the east, returning WAA for Saturday. Temperatures are expected to lift into the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday night, as a low pressure system moves east over Ontario, its trailing cold front pushes through the Great Lakes and Ozark regions towards the CWA. Precipitable water values ahead of the front begin climbing over 1.5" before some areas in the CWA reach to near 2" early Sunday. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances with the best chances coming with the passage of the front on Sunday. Not only will any rainfall help cool temperatures, but surface high pressure behind the front will usher in northwest winds. Temperatures on Sunday will see a slight reduction from Saturday's highs with highs in the low to mid 80s, but the cooling trend will continue with highs limited to the mid 70s to low 80s Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period. There is upstream convection that is slowly dropping southeast out of the Midwest towards the region early this morning, but this activity is expected to continue to weaken as it nears HNB and SDF. If this activity persists longer than expected TAFs will have to be amended. Besides some scattered afternoon cumulus, southerly winds are expected to gust to near 20 knots today.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.