textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy.

* Rain from a quick-hitting shortwave expected Thursday, though rainfall totals likely (80%) remain light under 0.5" in by Friday morning

* Friday is very warm with highs in the 80s

* Monitoring a cold front with the potential to impact weekend events in Louisville with gusty winds and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Scattered light showers are ongoing across portions of south-central and eastern KY. These showers are outpacing the instability axis, though there are some pockets of moderate rain due to the relatively higher PWAT axis. This precip activity will end this afternoon, leading to a mostly dry evening due to a lack of any forcing. Temperatures remain warm tonight, which could challenge warm min temps for today if we don't drop into the 60s before midnight.

We remain in warm SW flow tomorrow, with ridging over the southeast, and western US troughing. Similar to today, tomorrow is expected to be warm and breezy, though with a bit more sunshine. This will allow temps to be even warmer tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the 80s. Mostly dry conditions are expected throughout the day, though there is a low-end conditional chance for some scattered precip across the northern half of the CWA during the afternoon. Not a lot of confidence in this, and there is not a lot of agreement per the HREF paintballs, but there will be plenty of instability present given the warm temps to at least have some isolated thunder potential.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Wednesday - Friday Night

Wednesday begins warm and quiet with the potential to break warm minimum temperatures in the morning ranging in the mid 60s to near 70 in some areas. Passing clouds will slowly build through the day from a slowly approaching jet streak to our northwest, which may limit some daytime heating ahead of an incoming shortwave or create an isolated shower, though confidence is low for any rain in our northwestern communities (20-30% of measurable rain). Regardless, mid to lower level ridging will be in place, amplifying southwesterly flow. This will boost temperatures well into the low to upper 80s in the afternoon, with the potential to break record highs, especially in warmer southern communities. Broken cloud cover may linger into the overnight as a shortwave rolls in a little closer heading into Thursday morning.

With the ample heat from Wednesday, morning lows on Thursday will run high too, with the potential again to break high minimum temperatures in the low to upper 60s. The short term pattern on Thursday changes some, as the approaching shortwave will sweep through from west to east, bringing a round of rain and storms in the afternoon. Confidence with timing is increasing with the front dropping measurable rain near 11am - 2 pm in the west and as late as 5-7 pm in the east (75% of this onset timing). Highs area wide will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with warmer temperatures further east as they will take the longest for the shortwave to sweep through. Rainfall totals will vary with the placement of heavy downpours from any storms though a general 0.25 - 0.5" in of rain may fall across the area (50-80% of this amount) with isolated 0.75" in (<10%).

Ridging returns Friday though with skies clearing during the day. Morning lows will remain mild but probably not record breaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a southerly flow returning, Friday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a shower or storm in the far northwest again (<20%). Highs may be record breaking once again in the mid to upper 80s, and maybe even a few spots reaching 90 degrees. This is all ahead of a larger trough moving in later in the weekend. Friday should remain dry overnight ahead of Saturday's weather.

Saturday - Monday

Saturday should begin dry with above normal temperatures for morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. S to SW flow will dominate ahead of a strong cold front to move in later in the afternoon bringing highs into the low to mid 80s. Any afternoon plans need to be monitored for potential disruptions as storms are expected to move in by the early afternoon Saturday. Confidence is low on the specific impacts, however threats from gusty winds, and heavy downpours, and lightning are the biggest concerns. The timing of the front is key and current ensemble analysis has the front moving in early in the afternoon, or waiting until after sunset. Whenever the ridge in the southeast US relents and moves further east will determine how quickly storms roll in. Stronger storms could be possible with timing in the afternoon or weaker storms may result with overnight timing. Regardless, everyone will see rain this Saturday and we will monitor this threat over the next few days.

Once the front clears, cooler air and some gusty morning winds will move in Sunday as highs may struggle to reach the low 60s. High pressure will reinforce this cooler air leading to quiet weather for Sunday heading into Monday. Calmer weather lingers as long as this high sticks around Monday afternoon as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period for all sites. Mid to high level clouds will persist through tonight with SCT/BKN skies at 25kft. A low level jet will bring LLWS to all sites tonight (05z-12z) with SSW winds near 40kts at 2kft. As we move into tomorrow, wind gusts will return through the day with 20- 25kts gusts. There is a very low probability for isolated rain showers tomorrow afternoon, mainly for HNB and SDF. Tomorrow evening sites will see the gusty conditions taper off and clearing skies for the night.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.