textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy.

* Intermittent chances for showers and storms are expected this week. Best chances for rain and highest rainfall totals are favored along and north of the Ohio River and points northwest. Strong storms are possible Thursday and next weekend, but the probability remains low.

UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Partly cloudy skies were noted across the region this evening with temperatures generally in the lower 70s. A few stray showers were noted across portions of central Indiana. Overnight, a shortwave will eject out of the southern Plains and into the Mid-MS Valley. This feature should provide synoptic scale ascent for at least scattered convection develop and continue overnight. Additionally, a low-level jet of 40-45 kts will overspread the region. Upstream convection will attempt to move east into our region overnight. However, it will encounter a very dry low-level environment and the convection may have a hard time staying together. However, we could see some gusty winds with that convection overnight especially if convection can bring down some of that faster low-level jet momentum. The best chances for rainfall look to be generally west of the I-65 corridor overnight. Starting to see some agreement in the short term guidance that additional convection may develop across the region tomorrow morning. Currently we have high chance PoPs during that time period, but we may have to hold on to those a bit longer into the afternoon, especially if HRRR trends continue.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A warm and breezy day ongoing across the area as temperatures have climbed to the upper 70s and low 80s at this hour. Gusts are mostly ranging in the 20 to 30 mph range, and this will continue through the afternoon and early evening, before tapering with sunset. Upper sky cover will continue to increase from W to E through late afternoon and early evening, and will likely inhibit any deeper mixing as this occurs. Min RHs are currently running in the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range, and don't expect them to go a whole lot lower. Have been monitoring RAWs and other observing stations, and 20 foot winds have been behaving mostly in the 10 to 15 mph range. 10 hour fuels are also ranging from 10 to 18% at this hour. Also, haven't seen any wildfires show up on the Day Fire RGB satellite imagery, but will keep the Special Weather Statement messaging going through early evening.

A shortwave ejects out of the Red River Valley toward the Mid Mississippi River Valley overnight, and will spark scattered upstream convection with the aid of a 40-50 knot low level jet. Expect scattered coverage of showers, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, could survive into our area after 06z through the mid to late morning hours. Upstream convection will be battling our dry antecedent airmass, so don't expect a very favorable environment, and they may not survive very well. That being said, we could get some pretty decent gusts thanks to the dry low levels and tapping into the low level jet momentum, and perhaps a bit of a cold pool surge from collapsing storms if they do make it into our area. Something to be mindful of overnight.

Showers could linger into Monday morning, however expect to trend drier and clear out somewhat through the afternoon. Forecast soundings do show some decent elevated instability developing tomorrow afternoon, however a pretty strong low level inversion should prevent convective initiation. This seems pretty reasonable as surface temps should be confined to the upper 70s and low 80s, especially if the cooler air is convectively reinforced by decaying showers/storms. Look for a mild Monday night with lows in the low and mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday Evening...

The upper pattern through mid week will continue to feature SE CONUS upper ridging, with a shortwave trough slowly ejecting out of the SW CONUS. Other than a few lingering shower chances (20-30%) on remnant outflow across our NE CWA on Tuesday morning, we'll stay dry and very warm through this period. Tuesday high temperatures are currently forecast in the low and mid 80s across the area, and these values would fall a couple degrees short of records that are in the mid 80s for LEX and in the upper 80s for SDF/BWG. It should be noted that the current NBM forecast sits below the 50th percentile in temperatures but in the middle of the guidance envelope among all data, and these values could increase as we approach mid week. The same story holds true for Wednesday, although current forecast values are right around record highs already and could trend warmer still. Mild overnight lows will range in the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday Night - Thursday Night...

Late Wednesday night into Thursday, a shortwave will eject out of the central Plains and into the upper Midwest. Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop upstream ahead of the shortwave trough axis and associated surface cold front. Depending on timing, decaying showers and storms should arrive sometime in the pre-dawn hours to late morning hours of Thursday, which isn't a great time fore severe weather. In addition, our antecedent dry/subsident airmass from persistent upper ridging won't be an inviting environment for upstream storms to travel into. That being said, we could still get some pretty strong outflow dominant storms into our west during this time. Will have to keep an eye on this time frame for a potential strong gusty wind threat, mainly west of I-65.

The good news is that whatever remnants we get from upstream convection should bring at least a little rainfall to the area, and also provide some temporary relief from the well above normal temps. Right now, we have .25" -.33" of rainfall forecast, and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for Thursday. The shortwave trough axis and convectively reinforced surface front push through by Thursday night, with a return to dry conditions. Thursday night lows should be a bit cooler in the upper 50s and low 60s in the wake of the passing system.

Friday - Sunday...

Upper ridging gets re-established over our area by Friday with near- record temperatures expected once again in the mid and upper 80s. Friday and Friday night look dry, and the only real question is how long the dry conditions will hold? By Saturday, central CONUS troughing will begin pushing eastward while our SE CONUS ridge tries to hold influence over our area. Meanwhile, strong surface low pressure over eastern Canada will drag a cold front toward our area, ahead of the upper trough axis. Saturday likely starts out dry, but we'll have to watch for timing of another round of upstream showers and storms approaching our area. The overall trend of this system has sped up over the past 24 hours, and currently suggest we could see showers and storms by afternoon or early evening, however some data still keeps the system a bit slower into Saturday night and Sunday. Timing is everything for the Saturday/Saturday evening forecast as it could be a very warm and dry day if the slower solution prevails. Or, it could feature showers and storms (perhaps strong?) with overall cooler temps. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A 45 kt LLJ is moving across the area at this hour, with LLWS and increasing south winds/gusts expected to be the main impact over the next 2-5 hours. Later this morning, CIGs are expected to progressively lower as richer moisture moves into the area. The best chance for MVFR CIGs will be at HNB, and while there is also the potential for brief lower CIGs at SDF/LEX, we'll keep VFR CIGs in the forecast given low confidence at this time. Later this morning, scattered showers are expected to develop, continuing through early afternoon before pushing off to the east. While prevailing VFR conditions are expected, brief MVFR VIS and CIGs will be possible in heavier SHRA. A stray storm can't be ruled out either, but confidence in TS is low. Otherwise, continued gusty S/SW winds and high MVFR/low VFR stratus/stratocu are expected today, with clouds expected to scatter later in the afternoon. Winds should relax around sunset tonight, with VFR conditions expected this evening and tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.