textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Colder weather for today, with high temperatures only in the 30s. Similar temperatures expected for Monday too.

* Breezy, light snow showers will move through the northeastern portion of the region. A few snow squalls may be possible for the Bluegrass, along with snow accumulations under 1 inch expected.

* Temperatures begin to warm up next week, before we see another chance for showers on Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 834 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A few isolated snow showers have entered the region this morning. In snow showers, we have seen visibilities drop to 1-2SM in moderate snowfall. These isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through the morning and into the afternoon. Have added another SPS for snow showers just the west of the one issued this morning. This one will run through 18Z before most of the snow pivots to the Bluegrass region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

We are under clear skies early this morning, with temperatures in the upper 20s as strong CAA sweeps through. These colder temps will stick around for today as strong NNW winds continue to filter colder air into the region. Highs today are only expected to reach the low 30s, with many locations likely remaining at or below freezing.

Clouds will increase later this morning as the large upper low deepens over the Great Lakes, leading to moisture wrapping around and pushing south, along with strong mid-level vorticity. As a result, isolated to scattered light snow showers are possible throughout much of the day, especially east of I-65. However, with NNW sfc winds, low level moisture fetch off Lake Michigan will lead to better snow chances across Ohio, eastern Indiana, and northern/eastern Kentucky. For our area, these chances are mainly for the Bluegrass, especially north and east of LEX. Model soundings show quite steep low level lapse rates for today, with some instability to support a convective nature to these snow showers, or maybe some snow squalls. The snow squall parameter highlights northern and eastern KY the most with potential, but does clip our counties in the Bluegrass area. With any heavier snow showers, a quick dusting of snow will be possible, though generally swaths up to half an inch is possible in our east. Chances for more than 1 inch for our counties north of LEX remains roughly 10-20%, and would be very isolated if were to occur. Besides the snow shower chances, winds will become breezy today as the sfc pressure gradient increases, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.

For tonight, there remains a low chance for some lingering snow showers for the I-75 corridor and eastward. However, the better moisture will be pulling off to the east, so expect a mostly dry night. Temps will get quite cold overnight, which is discussed in the Long Term section below.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

===== Monday - Tuesday =====

We'll be under deep NW flow on Monday, which will continue to provide a strong CAA pattern across the area. The day will start out with morning temps in the low 20s for most, though some upper teens will be possible west of I-65. We'll still be dealing with some increased sfc winds, so wind chills may actually end up being quite colder than forecasted air temps. Wind chills as low as the upper single digits and lower teens are possible Monday AM.

Expect mostly dry conditions as we progress through the day, with the deep low pressure system along the East Coast sliding north as a nor'easter, and sfc high pressure moves across the central Plains. This combination will slowly relax the sfc pressure gradient for the Ohio Valley by the afternoon and evening. We'll still see a northerly fetch off of Lake Michigan through the day, which could result in some additional flurries, but model soundings show quite a bit more dry air in the low levels to limit those chances. Temps also remain quite cold, with highs only in the low to mid-30s.

Monday night into Tuesday morning will also feature cold air temps, with morning lows in the upper teens and low 20s. In contrast to Monday morning, sfc winds will be very light Tuesday morning as sfc high pressure slides to our south, so wind chills will not be much colder than the air temps. The sfc high will quickly settle over the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, and we'll see increasing WAA later in the day. Temps will recover somewhat after a cold start, with highs in the 40s.

===== Wednesday - Friday =====

A quick clipper system will pass over the Great Lakes on Wednesday morning, which will bring some light precip chances to our northeast. We could see some light radar returns early Wed morning across our northeast counties, but we'll likely have any precip falling out of a mid-level deck with plenty of dry air to prevent precip from making it to the sfc. Dry weather is expected throughout the day, though will see temps return to the 50s as stronger WAA takes hold ahead of another approaching trough.

As a shortwave develops over the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will result in sfc low moving across the Central Plains, and extending a warm front to the east. Isentropic ascent will increase Wednesday night, leading to increasing rain chances ahead of the approaching sfc low and associated cold front. Additional rain chances, and maybe some storms, will be possible throughout Thursday as the sfc low tracks along the I-70 corridor. Precip chances will eventually depart by Thursday night, leading to drier conditions on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Beginning to see low stratus arrive from the north this morning, which will result in MVFR conditions here soon. Also seeing some light snow on radar, though dry air in the lower levels will likely delay onset of precip making it to the ground for another hour or two. For the rest of today, expect isolated to scattered snow showers, especially for LEX and RGA. Drier conditions, and VFR cigs, are expected at HNB and BWG. Otherwise, gusty NW winds will impact all terminals through the entire period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.