textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Another round of strong to severe storms is expected this evening and into the overnight across central and southern KY. Damaging winds and large hail are the main severe threats.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average through next weekend for late April/early May.

* Mostly dry weather is expected after Wednesday through the weekend, with a slight chance for light rain from Friday to Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Skies are partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon, with somewhat thicker stratus lingering southeast of the Bluegrass Parkway. The lower clouds continue to gradually lift and mix out somewhat with daytime heating. Sfc temperatures are warming through the 70s. A stalled frontal boundary is draped southwest through SDF and PAH, and extending west through southern MO and northern AR. Moderate destabilization is ongoing south of the stalled boundary. MLCAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg is noted from central KY southwest through western TN as of this writing, and HREF members plus the most recent HRRR/RAP runs support 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across south-central KY through 00Z this evening.

Numerous thunderstorms have developed across the Ozarks this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough interacts with the stalled sfc boundary. Heading into tonight, this shortwave is forecast to lift ENE across the Midwest in the exit region of a 125 kt upper jet streak over the Four Corners/central Plains. Additional sfc wave development is anticipated from the Ozarks northeast along the stalled boundary through central KY this evening and overnight.

The consensus of the latest CAM guidance brings a cluster of strong to severe storms east through western and south-central KY this evening. Arrival time in the vicinity of Ohio, Butler, Logan, and Warren counties is expected to be 5-7 PM CDT. Abundant CAPE, as well 40-45 kt effective deep shear, will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds across the southern half of the forecast area through the late evening hours.

The tornado potential is lower, but non-zero. Locally backed S/SE sfc flow ahead of the low approaching from the southwest could result in a brief tornado or two in central KY between 00-06Z this evening. However, a stabilizing low level environment after sunset will also limit the tornado risk.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast across the rest of central KY and southern IN overnight. Beyond Midnight, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be elevated in nature. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and isolated gusty winds would still be possible with any storms, but the overall severe threat will be greatly reduced by this time.

Scattered light to moderate rain showers continue through Wednesday morning, but conditions will dry out Wednesday afternoon as low pressure lifts into the Northeast. Cool, dry NW flow then develops over the region through Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will top out in the mid/upper 60s north of I-64 and around 70 degrees in southern KY. Skies clear through Wednesday night, with temperatures forecast to drop into the low to mid 40s early Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The upper-level low begins to settle in over the northern Great Lakes Region by Thursday while weak surface high pressure resides over our area. Northwesterly flow will allow CAA to fill in over the area, continuing a cooling trend that will last through the weekend. Conditions will be dry, with afternoon temperatures getting into the mid 60s.

A weak shortwave will slowly drift southward across the area beginning Friday morning and exiting by the afternoon. There is a slight chance for rain (< 25%), though HREF 24 hour rainfall totals only amount to < 0.1" across the region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the low-mo-mid 50s. A broad shortwave will eject from the central Plains Friday morning, making its way towards the SE CONUS during the day. The northern periphery may skirt the southern counties of the CWA Friday evening through Saturday morning, though chances for rainfall are on the lower end (< 20%).

For the weekend, more robust surface high pressure fills in, allowing for dry conditions to persist. Temperatures will continue to be cooler, with highs on Saturday in the upper 50s/low 60, and slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the low-to-mid 60s. With clearing skies on Saturday night, temperatures are currently forecast to drop into the 30s, with some locations in the NE portions of the CWA having a low (< 20%) chance at experiencing frost.

By the start of next week, the overall wind flow will flip to the south, allowing for warmer temperatures (low 70s) to return. The end of the forecast period for Monday and Tuesday shows a return to more active weather, with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Guidance is picking up on a shortwave trough moving over the region, though deterministic and ensemble guidance is having a hard time on the timing and progression of the system. As a result, we currently have chance (~25-35%) POPs in the grids Monday-Tuesday afternoon across the entire area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

BKN MVFR ceilings linger along and south of a stalled frontal boundary draped through the Lower Ohio Valley. These ceilings will continue to lift quickly to VFR through 19Z, with partial clearing expected through the mid to late afternoon hours. Expect at least a SCT deck lifting to 3-5 kft this afternoon.

Further west along the stalled boundary, numerous TSRA have developed across western portions of MO/AR. A cluster of these storms are expected to approach BWG by 00Z this evening. Some of these storms could be strong with locally strong wind gusts, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and lightning.

Numerous showers and somewhat weaker, elevated storms will be possible at the remaining TAF sites late this evening and overnight. SHRA and SCT TSRA will spread northeast across the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Ceilings are forecast to drop to IFR and low- end MVFR early Wednesday morning and will only slowly improve/lift through the afternoon hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.