textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Spotty showers and storms will remain possible this afternoon and evening. Brief heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and lightning are possible with any stronger storms.

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning are again the primary thunderstorm hazards.

* Sunday and Monday look mainly dry and hotter, with highs into the 90s.

* An active stretch of weather looks increasingly likely during mid to late next week. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms could move through the region, with strong to severe storms at times and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Conditions remain mainly dry early this afternoon across southern IN and central KY. Visible satellite imagery shows the gradual development of a scattered cu field. Scattered convection is already ongoing in the Cincinnati area. There is a low-level temperature gradient in that area, with also slightly stronger mid-level flow ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The weak mid-level shortwave trough will drift lazily over the OH Valley through evening, providing only weak ascent. The overall lack of forcing will help keep precip coverage in check through the rest of the day. At least isolated convection will still be possible through evening due to robust destabilization of a very warm, moist airmass. Relatively speaking, the highest chance for an isolated storm will be across southern IN and north-central KY, closer to the stronger flow aloft.

MLCAPE will max out near 2000-2500 J/kg through peak heating, and recent mesoanalysis data shows DCAPE already at 1100-1200 J/kg. Isolated pulse convection will be capable of producing localized strong wind gusts, and cannot rule out isolated wind damage (mostly trees/branches). But the overall limited coverage means the risk for a strong storm is fairly low. Effective bulk shear of 20 kts (25 kts in northern KY) will limit convective organization, keeping the overall severe threat low.

Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. Rain/storm coverage will diminish after sunset, with only a few isolated showers and weak storms possible overnight. Temperatures will settle into the lower 70s by early Saturday morning.

We'll have one more weak upper level shortwave trough rotate ESE across the region on Saturday. A deeper area of low pressure up across Hudson Bay will drag a long trailing cold front southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Our portion of the cold front won't be particularly strong, and deep- layer shear will remain quite weak at 15 kts. However, we will again see the moist low-levels (dewpoints mid 70s) become moderately unstable by the afternoon. Spotty convection appears likely to continue into the evening hours before diminishing. Highs on Saturday should reach the upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The upper level flow becomes more zonal Sunday into Monday, with a weakening of the western US ridge and weakly rising heights over the Ohio Valley. This period continues to look relatively dry and hot, with highs in the lower 90s. LREF members point to a very small chance (10-20%) for an isolated pulse shower/storm Sunday afternoon, but confidence in development is low. Heat index values could approach triple digits each afternoon, especially over the western half of the area.

Tuesday's a bit of a transition day. We start to see a more active NW flow pattern take shape. We could end up staying dry through most of Tuesday, but we also cannot rule out isolated to scattered convection in the afternoon and evening hours. A larger thunderstorm complex could take aim at our area as early as late Tuesday.

Multiple bouts of convection then look possible Wednesday through Friday of next week. Strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, which could result in some instances of excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Much too early to try to get into the details with these storms, however. Tuesday should be one more day into the lower 90s, but temperatures will fall back through the 80s for highs during the second half of the week due to increased cloud cover/precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are likely to continue. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible through sunset, with the highest chance (30-40%) for a brief storm at the northern terminals (HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA). More isolated activity is expected further south, but still cannot totally rule out a brief storm at BWG. SW winds will be somewhat breezy this afternoon, with gusts of 15-18+ kts possible.

Tonight looks mostly dry at any one terminal, though isolated showers look possible at times. Expect light winds out of the south overnight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.