textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75-1.5" expected for most areas.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early next week, with increasing chances for rain late in the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Things are quiet across the region at this hour, and seeing a good mix of temperatures as some of the sheltered valleys have decoupled (20s) , and other areas have stayed a bit more mixed (30s). In addition, satellite imagery is also showing an increase in upper sky cover starting to overspread the area. So, temps may actually trend upward a bit toward sunrise.

As we move past sunrise, a light S wind takes hold of the area with mid and upper sky cover continue to increase ahead of the approaching system. Despite the increased sky cover, do expect temps to warm into the mid 50s to low 60s across the area. We'll stay dry through much of the day, before the column begins to saturate later in the afternoon, and especially after sunset. This will occur as shortwave energy moves out of the Red River Valley and into the lower Mississippi River Valley, drawing on plenty of deep moisture as it does so. We look to sit firmly in the right entrance region of a 120 knot upper level jet from this evening through tomorrow, with low level jetting responding beneath this feature, and steadily strengthening over our area, especially after Midnight tonight. The combination of deep forcing/lift through the column in addition to a high PWAT airmass (1" to 1.25") will result in widespread rainfall across the entire CWA. Overall, rainfall amounts have stayed pretty consistent with the previous shift, ranging between .75" to 1.5". Areas along and north of I-64 should expect more in the .5" to .75" range. There does appear to be some disconnect between the best low level jetting across southern KY, and the mid level deformation band more across the northern third of the CWA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this could create a two areas of enhanced precip amounts. One across southern KY, and the other up near the Ohio River where the def band will create a bit more residence time and pool a bit more moisture.

Still appears we should largely be able to handle this rainfall, as we don't really get close to FFG values, and PMMs on the HREF are pretty similar to the 48 QPF means. Overall, the best rates are expected across southern KY where the LLJ core maximizes, but still these rates look to peak up around .25" per hour. Will make note the 14/00z run of the NAM is more aggressive and suggests a swath of 2+" across southern KY, which would lead to more concern for some minor flooding issues, and some river flooding issues on the Green or Cumberland basins. However, NBM and LREF probs of rainfall over 2" don't exceed 25-30% so leaning against solutions that aggressive at the moment.

Rainfall begins to diminish from NW to SE on Sunday afternoon and evening as the system passes to our south and east and takes the deeper moisture with it. Temperatures will be notably cooler for Sunday, but are still expected in the upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

=== Sunday Night - Tuesday ===

The low pressure system will continue to move its way out of the region to the east coast Sunday night. This will move any remaining rain showers out of the SE counties by Sunday evening. Winds will become light and shift easterly. Minimum temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 30s across the area. Cloud cover will remain east of I-65 through the night into Monday morning. Upper level ridging will move into the area behind the low pressure system, which will lead to mild and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. WAA will push into the Ohio Valley Monday resulting in maximum temperatures nearing 60 degrees both days; even a chance for mid 60s on Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are expected and will also help keep our nighttime temperatures above freezing.

=== Wednesday - Saturday ===

A jet streak will be stretching from Arizona to the Ohio Valley, and will remain over the area for majority of the week into the weekend. A band of moisture advection from the Pacific will accompany this SW flow aloft. This is also associated with a strong pressure gradient from a deep low moving NE over Minnesota. This will lead to a gusty Wednesday with speeds around 15kts and gusts around 20kts. The rain on the south side of the low looks to remain north of the area, but light rain showers could still be possible in the northern most counties.

Another low pressure system will be moving eastward from the plains into the area on Thursday. Guidance is tracking this low through central IN leaving the Ohio Valley with widespread chances of rain for Thursday into Friday. A brief break in rain Friday night before another chance of rain for Saturday moves in from the south associated with a frontal boundary. Currently, these systems are not looking to bring large amounts of rain, but will be something to watch as we get closer. The polar jet stream will take another dip into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, so temperatures will drop slightly starting Friday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

The bulk of this TAF period will be quiet with calm to light SSE winds, and increasing upper sky cover. As we move into late morning later today, S to SSW winds increase between 5 and 10 mph, mid and upper ceilings steadily lowering. Chances for light rain will increase after sunset, and especially after Midnight as storm system passes to our south. Ceilings will continue lowering through the overnight, with an eventual trend into MVFR going into Sunday. IFR conditions will also be possible the deeper into Sunday we get, but that is beyond this forecast cycle.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.