textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms (20-40% coverage) are possible this afternoon in areas along and east of I-65.

* Unsettled weather expected to continue Friday and into Saturday with rain chances peaking in the 50-60% range.

* A slight reprieve in the weather is expected for the late weekend and into early next week. However, the latest data show the pattern becoming more active for mid-late week with additional rounds of convection and potentially excessive rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of central and eastern Kentucky. A few high clouds were noted over portions of southern Indiana and western Kentucky. Temperatures across the region were in the upper 60s to around 70. Combination of light winds, and recent rainfall may lead to some patchy fog production later this morning. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected through sunrise.

For today, mid-level trough axis over Missouri will head eastward with a convective cluster rolling into eastern MO/southern IL/W KY later this morning. This cluster of storms is expected to diminish before making it to the LMK CWA. This afternoon, aforementioned shortwave trough will push just north of the region. A southwest flow will continue to funnel moisture into the region from the Gulf. Afternoon MLCAPE will likely increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range though model soundings show very weak shear across the region. Most CAMs show garden variety convection this afternoon once we hit convective temperatures (86-88 degrees). Overall coverage from the multi-model consensus would suggest 20-40% coverage, favoring areas mainly east of the I-65 corridor.

Severe weather threat looks to remain isolated across the region today. The high PWAT air will likely lead to precipitation loading and torrential downpours with any storm that develops. While wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected, small instances of 40-50 mph wind gusts can't be ruled out. Frequent lightning can be expected with these storms. The weak wind shear will also lead to a rather weak steering flow for storms across the region. Residence time in any one location could be high and lead to excessive rainfall and localized flooding. Highs this afternoon will be in the 85-90 degree range. Slightly cooler temps will be noted just to our west as widespread convective cloud debris will limit heating this afternoon.

For tonight, upper trough axis will remain just north of the region and we'll be on the southern periphery of it. The latest data continues to show another perturbation aloft moving in late tonight which may contain enough lift to produce some additional convection overnight. Highest chances of rain would be limited to our northern areas, mainly north of the river in southern Indiana. Ensemble guidance suggests 20-40% probs here. Ample cloud cover will likely be in place overnight which will keep overnight minimums in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Friday through Saturday Night...

As we head into the weekend, the latest suite of model data shows broad upper level troughing remaining in place across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. Corresponding ridging will be seen across the western CONUS and into the western Rockies. A diffuse surface frontal boundary is expected to stall out north of the region on Friday and into Saturday. The LMK CWA will remain on the south side of this boundary with PWATs remaining in the 1.7-1.9 inch range. Aloft, multiple perturbations are expected to move through the region and will bring episodic bouts of convection. Model soundings show enough instability to support somewhat organized convection. However, shear values will remain quite weak with speeds of less than 20kts. The risk for severe weather during this period continues to be on the low side. However, that high PWAT air will likely lead to precipitation loading in storms with torrential rainfall and localized gusty winds with any stronger storm. Slow environmental flow could result in excessive rainfall, especially in areas that see repeated convection. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 85-90 degree range with overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Moving into the later part of the weekend, the upper level pattern looks to deamplify slightly as the upper trough axis over the Great Lakes moves easts and the flow aloft becomes a bit more zonal. Stronger westerly flow aloft will be confined to the northern tier of the US which should result in a storm track further to our north with lesser rain chances across the Ohio Valley for Monday and Tuesday. Highs Sunday will warm again into the 85-90 degree range. For Monday and Tuesday, we'll a slight increase in 1000-500 hPa thickness which should support afternoon temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Temps could be slightly cooler here as a number of convective systems will likely move across the northern Midwest and Great Lakes through the period and could produce some high clouds across the region limiting heating.

By mid-week, the upper level ridge across the western CONUS is expected amplify with downstream troughing redeveloping across the east. The flow pattern across the Ohio Valley will develop into a notorious northwest flow pattern. Several perturbations are likely to drop southeast into the region resulting in episodic bouts of convection and possible MCS activity with excessive rainfall becoming a problem by late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Widely scattered shra/tsra are developing roughly along a BWG to LEX axis. Much of this activity should stay to the southeast of SDF. BWG, LEX, and RGA appear to have the highest chance (30-40%) of being impacted by IFR/LIFR conditions due to a thunderstorm from now through 23Z. Expect prevailing SW winds this afternoon of 6-9 kts, decreasing to 5 kts or less out of the S/SE late this evening.

The overnight period looks fairly dry, though isolated showers will be possible across southern IN early Friday morning. Additional scattered TSRA will be possible on Friday, especially from late morning through the afternoon hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.