textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm weather is expected over the next several days.

* Low (10-30%) rain chances return late in the week into the weekend, with a significant cooldown unlikely through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 411 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today, the upper ridge over the high, centered over eastern Tennessee becomes more positively tilted, stretching through New England. At the surface, high pressure sits under the upper ridge with a ridge stretching southwest down the East Coast. This will keep winds across the Lower Ohio Valley out of the south and southwest, causing WAA to lift highs into the 90s. Along and west of Interstate 65, the mid to upper 90s are expected with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will cross the 100 degree line. Due to the heat, a heat advisory remains in place for this afternoon/evening and continues on Wednesday as the overall pattern and conditions change very little.

At night, both Tuesday and Wednesday night, winds ease but remain out of the south. Under mostly clear skies, temperature only fall into the low to mid 70s.

During this two day period, there is a west-southwest to east- northeast front that will approach the CWA later today and is expected to lift north over central Indiana by Wednesday, becoming more west to east oriented. This front, along with shortwave activity traveling around the upper high, to our southeast, could bring isolated chances for precipitation to the region. The best chance would be for our southern Indiana counties tonight as the front nears, but chances remain low with better chances remaining north of the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 411 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Thursday, the upper high sits over the Mid-Mississippi Valley with one positively tilted ridge pushing off into the Atlantic and another negatively tilted ridge forming to the northwest of the high, running through the Ozarks and Northern Plains, resulting in northwest flow into the Ohio Valley. Some model guidance has this pushing low chances of precipitation into the CWA, but believe a better 10-30 percent chance of precipitation for some will arrive on Friday as a west to east oriented front is expected to drop south to our east as the axis of the upper ridge approaches the CWA. With any of these chances of precipitation, amounts and coverage is expected to remain low.

Looking into the weekend and beyond, consensus remains weak as the core flow aloft remains north of the CWA. To start this period, surface winds remain out of the south, bringing Gulf moisture and warm temperatures northward, so any shortwave could produce convection, but even without any rainfall, we can count on warm temperatures to persist through at least the weekend as temperatures remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Thanks to the large upper ridge positioned over the region, flight categories will remain VFR. System to the north will try and push a weak boundary close to the Ohio River tonight into tommorow. The current thinking is the ridge and associated sfc high is too strong for any development of activity keeping us mostly dry and any clouds in the form of high stratus.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ023>034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>077-081. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.