textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A passing shortwave tonight could bring some light snow or flurries with minor accumulation.

* A wintry mix of rain and snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential of an inch or two north of the I-64 corridor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 425 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tonight, surface high pressure stretches northeast through the Tennessee Valley towards West Virginia, keeping south winds in the CWA, but with light winds from being so close to the high, this will do little to warm temperatures as they fall into the single digits in the Bluegrass to near 20 close to Bowling Green. Overhead, a north to south oriented shortwave will cut east through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will bring another night of flurries and or light snow showers falling out of a low cloud deck. Chances are best farther north over southern Indiana into north central Kentucky. A dusting to around a quarter of an inch of new snow will be possible in the abnormally cool airmass.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure to our southeast and a low to our north will help warm air advection lift temperatures above freezing, into the mid 30s to near 40 under cloudy skies. Expect mostly cloudy skies to the north with more sunshine over southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 425 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tuesday, a shortwave diving south through the Plains will cause part of the upper trough to become zonal from the Plains towards the Ohio Valley. This pushes a surface low near the Ozarks east towards the CWA, increasing precipitation chances. Ahead of the low isentropic lift will help to generate precipitation as warm air advection warms temperatures into the mid 30s to mid 40s, depending on the low's path. North of the low, temperatures will be cooler with snow being more likely with rain farther to the south. Believe many people in the area will see snow falling with air temperatures above freezing. Model soundings continue to show cool profiles with the column remaining below freezing until near the surface. Sleet and freezing rain don't look very likely. It appears to be a snow and rain event, but with temperatures falling below freezing behind the system, remaining water could freeze.

Ahead of the low's arrival, a west to east band of snow is expected to develop during the day Tuesday before the precipitation tied to the low fills in from the west. The best chances for snow still look to be to the north over southern Indiana into northern Kentucky. The change over to rain farther south will quickly diminish snow totals, and with the whole CWA expected to get above freezing, that won't help totals either. Snow totals could reach up to an inch or two.

Behind the low, cold air advection returns as a surface high drops in from the northwest. Tuesday night's lows return to the mid teens north of Interstate 64 to the upper 20s in southern Kentucky. The mid 20s to mid 30s remain for Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure diving south towards the CWA will bring warm air advection back for Friday, but as temperatures climb into the 40s, the system's cold front pushes south through the region. Light precipitation could pass through the CWA with the best chances in southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Through 06Z tonight, there is high confidence in VFR categories and light winds across the area as mid- and high-level clouds increase from west to east. Early Monday morning, ceilings are expected to steadily drop from NW to SE ahead of a weak front. As the front crosses the area, there may be enough moisture for a few light snow showers or flurries, especially at HNB. At this time, visibilities should largely remain VFR, though we can't rule out brief MVFR VIS in a scattered snow shower. Later in the day on Monday, an area of MVFR stratus is expected to sink in from the north, with ceilings dropping to around 2k ft for all sites except BWG. Winds are expected to veer through the day to the SW, with speeds largely remaining at or below 10 kt.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.