textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and tranquil weather expected for today with highs in the 60s.

* Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region late tonight and early Friday, bringing a few isolated very light rain showers to the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 60s.

* Drier weather is expected for Saturday, but temperatures will be running well below early May values. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

* Areas of frost will be possible Sunday morning across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. A frost headline will likely be needed for Sunday morning.

* Weather pattern may become more active early-mid next week as several systems are forecasted to move through.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Regional radar shows some weak returns moving across south-central KY early this morning, driven by weak PVA and a 65kt 500mb jet overhead. Low level CAA regime has not only aided in sfc temps dropping down into the low 50s so far, but has also filtered drier air into the region. Due to this low level dry air, little to no precip is making it to the sfc. This virga activity will shift off to our east by sunrise.

For today, sfc high pressure will be centered over southern Illinois, which will keep a strong influence on our weather today. High pressure circulation will promote a continued CAA regime with breezy north winds today. Below normal temperatures will peak in the mid 60s this afternoon under plenty of sunshine and dry conditions.

Dry weather continues for the evening hours, but expect increasing cloud cover by tonight as a weak cold front begins to approach the area as a mid-level shortwave pivots across the Ohio Valley. Expect dry conditions to continue until the overnight hours tonight.

Isolated light rain showers are possible as a weak cold front slides through the region early Friday morning, though plenty of dry air will combat these precip chances. Best chance for any light precip will be across southern IN, with dry weather expected to continue for counties south the I-64 corridor. Model soundings show that this FROPA will lack deep moisture, and will even have a rather deep layer of low-level dry air to limit overall precip amounts. Due to this, have knocked down precip chances to no more than 20 percent for Friday AM for areas along and north of I-64. Overall QPF is expected to be less than 0.1". Chilly temps are forecast for Friday night, with temps getting down into the upper 30s and low 40s by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

===== Saturday through Sunday =====

The upper flow pattern will feature a switch from zonal flow to a sharpening upper trough axis. This upper trough will pivot across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, though rain chances remain limited to southeastern KY. The GFS has been the most generous of the global deterministic and ensemble solutions for suggesting some light rain on Saturday, primarily driven by stronger mid-level vorticity associated with the upper trough axis, but also due to steepening low level lapse rates. However, there is consistency among the global solutions that a rather dry layer up to 850mb should be enough to keep us dry. Will keep a 10 percent chance for rain on Saturday, but generally leaning toward a dry forecast. The main highlight for Saturday will be the below normal temps, with highs Saturday afternoon only reaching the upper 50s and low 60s. These forecast temps will be roughly 15 degrees cooler than normal early May. Will continue with a dry forecast as sfc high pressure builds across the central US.

Dry weather continues for Sunday as the sfc high shifts eastward and the upper trough axis pivots east. Sunday morning lows in the 30s could pose our next risk for some frost potential, which appears slightly more favorable east of I-65 and especially across the Bluegrass as of now. As mentioned in the prior discussion, this would be characterized as a late season frost as our frost climatology states that getting a frost beyond May 1st has a probability of about 30%. So folks that have set out vegetation should be prepared to cover things up Saturday night/Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will somewhat recover after the cold start, though will still be slightly below normal with forecast highs in the 60s.

===== Early Next Week =====

A mid-level shortwave will pass over the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, which will bring our next precip chances ahead of an associated cold front. Our pattern remains active for next week, with additional precip chances over several days as the cold front struggles to clear our area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this morning, with SKC and light north winds. These VFR conditions will continue today, with north winds becoming more breezy this afternoon. Upper level clouds increase by the evening hours, with winds becoming more northeasterly for the overnight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.