textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Wind gusts of 25-35 mph continue this afternoon. A few gusts to 40 mph are possible across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

* Showers and storms are possible from later tonight through Friday. A few of the storms could become strong. Straight line wind gusts are the main hazard with any strong storms.

* Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s.

* Showers and storms return Saturday with cool, dry and calm weather expected for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

It is a warm and breezy day, with temps so far hitting the upper 70s and low 80s, along with widespread wind gusts peaking around 30- 35mph. High level cirrus has stayed mainly west of I-65 today, though a diurnal cu field has blossomed below the cirrus due to our daytime heating. Decided earlier this afternoon to expand the Special Weather Statement across the entire forecast area due to the gusty southerly winds, but those winds should begin to relax by this evening. Sfc low pressure is located over northwestern MO this afternoon, and will track into the Great Lakes by tonight. Ahead of this sfc low, warm conveyor belt has helped channel moisture up into the Midwest, with our area on the eastern periphery of this moisture transport axis. Sfc dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s across central KY and southern IN, with slightly higher values in the low 60s across western KY where the better moisture transport is located. A few radar blips are noted east of I-65, and we could see additional isolated pop-up showers within the diurnal cu field, though not confident enough to add any PoPs for this afternoon.

For tonight, greater chances for showers and storms arrive well ahead of a cold front. CAMs indicate scattered convection developing across eastern MO and southern IL this afternoon and push east into the Wabash Valley by this evening. Eventually this convection will approach our area by late tonight, and is expected to weaken as it runs into substantially drier air, weak mid-level subsidence, and weaker forcing it moves farther away from the parent sfc low. As such, SPC has appropriately trimmed back the Marginal Risk and now only clips our far northwestern corner of the forecast area. Model soundings consistently show inverted v soundings, leading to high LCLs and marginal shear and instability parameters. With 40-50kt LLJ winds still over the area, some of these showers or embedded storms could pull down some gusty winds, but overall concern for severe storms is low. Best chance for any strong storms tonight will be mainly west of I-65 and across southern IN, but the general thunderstorm risk extends as far east as Lexington.

The cold front will get caught up across the Ohio Valley and won't make it through our area tomorrow. This in turn will support additional shower and storm chances across the region tomorrow morning and through the afternoon as we remain in a WAA regime with ample moisture advection. Some strong storms could be possible due to better destabilization by the afternoon, but the severe threat will be focused north of the Ohio River. SPC trimmed the Marginal Risk farther north in the Day 2 as well, as shear won't be quite as strong. With our area remaining on the warm side of the boundary, our temps will remain quite mild overnight with lows mid to upper 60s, and highs tomorrow in the 80s again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

=====Saturday - Sunday=====

Beginning Saturday morning, ample moisture with southwesterly flow will keep clouds around and dewpoints around 60 degrees. Record-warm to near record-warm morning lows are likely, ranging low 60 to mid 60s (90-100%). Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move over the Great Lakes, bringing in a strong cold front sometime during the early afternoon in our western CWA moving to our eastern communities later in the afternoon/evening. Depending on the timing of this front, there could be sufficient heating for a line of thunderstorms to bring gusty winds and heavier downpours. While confidence is still low for a severe threat then, there is high confidence in rainfall for the entire CWA. Modest totals of 0.5 - 0.75" are most likely (~90%) with current trends and isolated areas getting up to an inch, more favored in areas further south. There seems to be a gradient of high temperatures, especially if western areas receive rain early in the afternoon with highs in the low 70s in the northwest to low 80s along and east of the Ohio River.

Eventually, the cold front will pass through before sunrise Sunday in our eastern communities, ushering in much drier, cooler air behind it. Anchored in by a high pressure to our west, cooler air and clear skies will stick around Sunday, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

=====Beyond Monday=====

By Monday, a stronger Canadian high will be moving somewhere along or north of Lake Superior. Conditions Monday afternoon will be mostly clear skies with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s again. The orientation of the wind flow around the Canadian high will reinforce cold air in the area Monday night through Tuesday, which looks to be the coolest day of the week. Aided by general upper level troughing, Tuesday's highs will remain in the 50s, with lows Tuesday night dropping into the 30s. There's a 40 - 60% chance lows could be at or below 35 degrees in our northeastern communities, meaning a threat of frost is possible then. On Wednesday, the Canadian high moves to our northeast allowing temperatures to slowly moderate into the highs in the 60s and 70s going into Thursday and Friday as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue into the evening hours, with southerly wind gusts at or above 20 kt likely to continue past midnight for the western TAF sites. Scattered showers and storms will move into the area this evening, lasting through early tomorrow afternoon. The coverage appears to be quite limited, so PROB30 groups were utilized for the best chances of showers and storms. Though ceilings will lower tomorrow morning, most places should stay at VFR, with the exception of HNB that will drop to MVFR cigs. Ceilings for all TAF sites will increase by the afternoon hours on Friday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.