textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Band of snow expected along and north of the I-64 corridor late this afternoon through the early evening. 1 to 2" of snow possible north of I-64. Less than 1" expected along the I-64 corridor.

* Impact could occur during the afternoon and evening commute. Lingering slick spots are likely into Wednesday morning with temperatures falling into the teens and low 20s.

* Lingering freezing drizzle could become a concern across the Advisory area and into portions of central Kentucky later tonight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tricky forecast for this afternoon through into Wednesday. Temperatures have overachieved today and warmed into the 35 to 45 degree range across the area. Getting some decent melting of the snowpack from this, but do have concerns about re-freezing tonight as temperatures drop again. Something we'll have to monitor through the evening. Seeing the briefly mild temperatures wet bulb down to freezing where snow has began across our northern tier of counties.

Have been watching the northern snow band slowly pick up in intensity over the past couple hours, and it is pretty much going to slide across the Advisory area from now through 5 or 6 PM, persist for a few hours, and then start to exit the around 7 or 8 PM EST. This is when the biggest impacts from the snow band are expected along and north of the I-64 corridor. Area webcams are showing snow ongoing in Scottsburg, where a decent W to E oriented band has set up. Still like the 1 to 2" amounts up in that area. Farther south, across the more impact based portion of the Advisory (I-64 corridor) it appears most folks will get a more SW to NE oriented band which will be more quick hitting, but likely briefly moderate rates. So, the lesser amounts look good in that area (less than 1") but timing during the evening commute is still the biggest concern. Did decide to add Spencer, Anderson, and Jessamine counties to the Advisory as it appears the band could clip those counties as well with some slick spots possible on untreated roads.

The next problem, and one that is of pretty big concern but overall pretty low confidence, deals with the threat of lingering freezing drizzle into the overnight. Basically, as the northern shortwave passes and our evening snow band ends, we lose ice crystals aloft thanks to the loss of deep saturation. Time heights and soundings show that we only saturate up into -5 to -7 C air as we go into the overnight. Get pretty worried about the introduction of ice crystals sufficient for snow with only -5C saturation so there could be a period of lingering freezing drizzle through much of the night as the southern stream portion of this two-progned semi-phased system contributes its moisture. The other complicating factor with this setup is that surface temps will take a while to fall below freezing and work their way into the 20s which is when you might be able to get a thin glaze of ice on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways. It appears that the best overlap of temps below freezing and lingering low level moisture into Wednesday morning will be along and south of the Parkways, but north and west of Lake Cumberland (where temps should stay above freezing). Here, we're going to hit a glaze of ice a little harder in the messaging with an SPS and an acknowledgment that a Winter Weather Advisory could be needed if roads are impacted ahead of the Wed morning commute. Also worried about a glaze of ice up in the Advisory area as well, but the strategy will be to see how things progress through the evening and then expand the existing Advisory if we are getting slick spots from some -fzdz. Don't really have temps falling below freezing until around 03-06z along the I-64 corridor, and just not sure how long the moisture will remain deep enough to precipitate beyond that. Tricky situation and just another uncertainty with this complicated system.

Another thing to watch for is that you could get a bit of sleet on the leading edge of saturation with this snow band as low level dry air is overcome. Expect it would be pretty short-lived, but just another reason why the impact based Advisory isn't a horrible idea for the I-64 corridor.

Wednesday morning looks cold with lows dropping into the upper teens and 20s across the area. Wednesday should bring a drying trend across our east as the low level moisture lets go slowly. Temps will struggle only to the mid and upper 20s across the area. May get close to freezing near the KY/TN border.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Wednesday Night - Thursday Night...

Looking for a cold and dry pattern passing through mid week into the late week time frame. We'll keep dry NW flow aloft in place, with surface high pressure centering over the area on Thursday. Looking for cold conditions in the single digits and teens for lows Wednesday night. Some Thursday AM wind chills will dip into the 5 to 15 above range, so bundle up again for the Thursday AM commute. After the cold start on Thursday morning, highs struggle into the upper 20s and low 30s for most locations. Best chance for temps a few degrees above freezing will be across southern KY where more sunshine is likely. Dry and cold conditions continue into Thursday night with lows mostly in the 20 to 25 degree range as steady SW winds start to take hold.

Friday - Friday Night...

Focus shifts upstream to a clipper system diving SE through the NW flow aloft for Friday. We'll get notable "warm" advection ahead of this feature on Friday and temps look to warm into the low and mid 40s across much of the area. Could see lower 50s across southern KY. Confidence isn't all that high on where the best placement for coverage of snow showers will occur, but right now our NE CWA looks to be the most likely. Give how mild it will be ahead of the showers, expect we could see a rain/snow shower mix until lapse rates steepen and we switch to plain snow showers Friday into Friday evening. Some data still supports showers missing our area to the north and east, so confidence remains low for this cycle.

Saturday - Tuesday...

Looks like mainly dry NW flow aloft late weekend through the early week. We may have to watch for another clipper system diving through the flow on Sunday/Sunday night, but not a lot of confidence yet for this one. Upper flow transitions to a more zonal look by Tuesday, with perhaps another system ejecting out of the central Plains. Overall, this stretch look milder with temps warming from the 30s on Saturday to the 45 to 55 degree range by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 641 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

A band of wintry mix precip is along I-64 at this hour and will continue to steadily push southeast through the evening and into the overnight. Precip will begin as rain and transition to snow. Most areas near Lake CUmberland will remain as rain. Brief periods of light freezing drizzle will also be possible. Additionally over southern Kentucky, there is dense advection fog present. This fog is expected to thin as winds shift from the north over the next few hours. Once precip and fog moves out of the region, low CIGs will stick over Kentucky through the remainder of the TAF period. Southern Indiana will likely see VFR CIGs.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ030- 034-035-038>041-048-049. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ070>078- 081-082. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for INZ076- 084-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for INZ077>079-092.