textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant and dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and mostly clear skies.

* Temperatures will begin to warm back into the 80s next week ahead of rain chances returning mid to late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today - Monday Night...

The lower Ohio Valley is being influenced by upper ridging and the nor'easter to the east. This has allowed cooler northeasterly flow to keep temperatures mild in the 70s today. This airmass is quite dry aloft, and coupled with ample mixing, is allowing for dry air to mix down to the surface. RH levels in the afternoon are crashing into the upper 20% to mid 30% range and dew points are in the upper 30s and low 40s. This type of set up is allowing for slightly overachieving temperatures and slightly breezy winds. These conditions are expected to continue each day through at least Monday. High clouds will stream over western Kentucky tonight, which will prevent some cooling. Though wind protected valley areas in the Bluegrass may dip into the low 40s Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday...

On Tuesday, surface high pressure will begin to shift east and southerly flow will return to the region. The remnant energy and moisture from Hurricane Polo will get swept up by troughing swinging through the desert southwest. These features will slowly move east and deepen. This will cause ridging over the eastern CONUS to amplify. Conditions will remain dry, though temperatures will increase. Expecting to see temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s on Tuesday and mid-upper 80s on Wednesday. Dry air aloft and deep mixing (up to 800mb) may lead to dry air mix down and slightly overachieving temperatures and breezy winds.

There is higher confidence through Wednesday of dry conditions and warming temperatures. Looking into ensembles and LREF clustering, there is good agreement.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

A shortwave is expected to move across the Great Lakes, while the aforementioned western trough develops a surface low pressure over the Plains. The front associated with the shortwave will stall over the northern Ohio Valley and the low pressure in the Plains will begin to ride that boundary northeast. Aloft, strong ridging over the Southeast CONUS will battle for position over the approaching trough. Given these features, precip chances will begin to increase late Wednesday night/Thursday over the northwestern half of the region. Precip chances will gradually increase to the southeast going into the weekend. Through Friday night, we are looking at about 0.25 inches (SE areas) and up to 1 inch (NW areas). Over the weekend, we could see another 0.5-1 inch.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this forecast cycle as high pressure remains in control. Skies will be clear other than some Few-Sct high clouds. Look for a light NNE wind or calm conditions overnight, then a steady NNE wind picks up tomorrow late morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.