textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region from west to east tomorrow evening (4-11pm CST). There is a low chance (5%) that the strongest cells could produce locally gusty winds or small hail.

* Conditions will turn sharply cooler on Thursday, with high temperatures likely (80% chance) staying under 50 by Friday. There is a low chance for the first flurries of the season Thursday night into Friday, but the warm ground should prevent anything from sticking.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Early Tuesday afternoon, mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s were observed across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Water vapor satellite showed broad west-northwesterly flow over the Ohio Valley/Midwest, while a mid level disturbance was diving southeast across the Rockies and into the High Plains. It is this feature that will intensify as it phases with a northern stream jet over our neck of the woods tomorrow night into Thursday, helping to deepen a surface low as it shifts eastward into the Mid-Atlantic.

*** SEVERE WEATHER(?) TOMORROW EVENING ***

Ahead of the aforementioned low, the area will see a brief push of southwesterly warm advection and surge of low level moisture with dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 50s tomorrow afternoon and evening. At the same time, mid-level lapse rates will modestly steepen to favor a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE, which, coupled with 35- 45 kt 0-6km layer shear, will at least favor a few thunderstorms and perhaps localized small hail tomorrow evening. SPC has the area outlooked with a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk for severe weather, and we can't dismiss it given the impressive kinematics. However, we think the overall risk for severe weather is quite low given the poor low-level lapse rates (which limits the wind and tornado risk). We'll keep an eye on storms tomorrow evening in case a cell or two gets feisty, though. Despite medium-high (60-70%) confidence in rain along the developing cold front tomorrow evening, which is forecast to move across the area from west to east between roughly 4 and 11pm EST, rainfall amounts should remain meager given lack of deep layer moisture and fast storm motion (40-50mph).

*** BREEZY AND SHARPLY COOLER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ***

Behind the cold front, rapid pressure rises behind the deepening low should promote an uptick in winds from the northwest. Nocturnal timing should offset the magnitude of the winds, but still we suspect we'll have sustained 10-20 mph winds with sporadic gusts up to 30 mph tomorrow night into Thursday - ushering a much cooler airmass into the region, with LREF mean bringing 850mb temps into the -4 to -5 degC range by Thursday night/Friday morning. Consequently, Thursday will be a breezy and seasonably chilly day with highs in the low-mid 50s. In addition, there may be just enough wrap around moisture to give us a few rain showers during the afternoon when surface heating promotes steep low level lapse rates and marginal instability.

*** CHILLY THIS WEEKEND, SLOWLY MODERATING NEXT WEEK ***

Friday will likely be the coolest day in the forecast period with NBM giving us only a 20% chance high temperatures climb out of the 40s during the afternoon. However, cool weather will continue through the upcoming weekend as the upper level low lingers across the Great Lakes/Northeast, with Saturday and Sunday forecast highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and overnight lows solidly in the 20s. Conditions will gradually moderate next work week as ridging attempts to rebuild across the nation's midsection.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There could be a brief period of patchy fog near HNB over the next couple hours, with a TEMPO group of 4SM BR through 14z. Winds will generally be out of the SW, peaking at 6-8 kt today before diminishing below 5 kt after sunset.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.