textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight into Monday morning as temperatures cooling back into the mid 30s.

* A quiet weather pattern continues for the first part of the week with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

* Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system tracks through the region. Although it's not expected to be a big rain maker, we could see our first flurries of the season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

***Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night***

Tonight, temperatures will cool into the mid to low 30s with light winds and clear skies. Monday morning will be another chilly one, however temperatures are not expected to drop below freezing. A Frost Advisory has been issued and is in effect for tonight through 10am EST on Monday. The combination of calm to light winds and clear skies will lead to radiational cooling, and is expected to develop river valley fog again tonight.

As high pressure and northwest synoptic flow continues, near normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue for the first part of the work week. High temperatures on Monday will warm in the mid 60s across the area. Nighttime lows are expected to be slightly warmer in the upper 30s and low 40s. REFS ensemble guidance has a less than 10% chance of minimum temperatures cooling below 35 F. On Tuesday southwesterly flow will return to the Ohio Valley as a shortwave disturbances passes to the south of KY. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures for the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. Areas west of I-65 in south central KY will have the best chance (30- 40%) of reaching 70 degrees.

***Wednesday Through Saturday***

By mid-week, the subtropical and polar jets will begin to interact with one another and phase together. This will result in cyclogenesis and formation of a low pressure system over in the region. As the system shifts east, precipitation chances will return to the forecast. Although this system has the potential to be fairly strong, a shallow moisture profile and low PWAT values will limit the amount of rainfall we see. Although, the placement and trajectory of the system will play a big part into the QPF values. Current ensemble guidance has been consistent with widespread 0.25"- 0.5". As the associated frontal boundary pushes through the region on Thursday, a cold airmass will build into the Ohio Valley bringing decreasing temperatures. Nighttime lows on Thursday will hover around freezing across the area, with Friday highs in the upper 40s. If enough moisture sticks around Thursday night into Friday morning, areas along and east of I-75 could see their first flurries of the season.

On Saturday, an upper-level ridge off to the west will begin to build in behind the low pressure system. This will return surface high pressure to the Ohio Valley, bringing dry conditions back for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s with nighttime lows likely below freezing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period with clear skies. Winds are currently ranging 6-10 kts and primarily out of the WSW. Overnight winds will become nearing calm (especially for BWG and HNB) ahead of a wind shift tomorrow. Tempo groups for HNB and BWG were added as radiational cooling has the potential to develop fog, primarily in the river valleys. A weak boundary will push through the area tomorrow shifting winds out of the northwest.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.