textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Weak upper level disturbance and cold front will move across the area this morning, bringing a few isolated very light rain showers to southern IN counties. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 60s.

* Mostly dry weather is expected for Saturday, but temperatures will be running well below early May values. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Can't rule out a few isolated to scattered light showers across west-central KY.

* Areas of frost will be possible Sunday morning across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. A frost headline will likely be needed for Sunday morning.

* Weather pattern may become more active early-mid next week as several systems are forecasted to move through.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

It is a chilly start to our Friday, with KY Mesonet obs showing low 40s across majority of the area so far. Could see some sites sneak down into the upper 30s before sunrise, but increasing clouds ahead of an approaching cold front may limit that some. Regional radar mosaic shows a broken line of scattered light showers stretching from St. Louis to Indianapolis this morning, which are slowly pushing east into a drier airmass. Expect majority of this light rain activity to dissipate throughout the morning as dry air evaporates most precip, but there is a low chance (less than 25%) that a light shower or sprinkles could move across southern IN later this morning. Any precip that does manage to make it to the sfc will be so light that no more than 0.05" is expected. PoPs are limited to only areas north of I-64 due to the antecedent dry air, and south of that corridor will remain dry today.

Other than the low end precip chances, the main feature today will be the cold FROPA, which will result in a shift in winds. Currently expect to see this wind shift along the I-65 corridor by 12z, and through our entire forecast area before 18z. Behind the front, NW winds will be breezy this afternoon, which will help keep our sfc temps below normal and in the 60s again today.

Dry weather continues tonight as high pressure settles across the central Plains. Chilly temps down to the upper 30s and low 40s for tonight, which could result in some patchy frost in the cooler spots.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

===== Saturday - Sunday =====

Saturday is expected to be mostly dry, though the main story will be the rather cool temperatures for early May. The upper level pattern will feature a sharp trough axis pivoting across the Ohio Valley during the day, placing our area under the base of that trough axis. Associated vorticity wing will likely swing across the area, supporting some isolated to scattered rain showers during the day, mainly across western Kentucky and perhaps into a portion of central KY. Model soundings continue to depict steepening low level lapse rates to support some breezy afternoon winds and buoyancy. However, soundings continue to indicate rather dry air below 850mb, which should limit overall precip chances. Temps on Saturday are only expected to reach the upper 50s across southern IN, and low 60s across KY. These forecast temps could end up being close to 15 degrees below normal for early May.

The upper trough axis shifts off to our east by Saturday night and into Sunday, with sfc high pressure building across the southern Plains. With clearing skycover and light winds by Sunday morning, combined with the already cooler airmass in place, we have a higher than normal confidence in areas of frost developing. Best chance for widespread frost will be east of I-65 Sunday morning as sfc temps drop into the 30s. As such, will likely need a Frost Advisory for at least the eastern portion of the forecast area in the coming days.

Dry weather is expected for Sunday, with temps remaining slightly cooler than normal with highs in the mid-60s. By Sunday night, a weak shortwave riding within the northwest flow will bring a chance for overnight showers mainly north of the WK/BG Pkwys.

===== Next Week =====

Additional shower activity is possible throughout Monday north of I- 64 where better moisture advection ahead of a cold front will be. Increasing WAA will result in temps returning to the 70s on Monday.

The overall pattern is a bit more active for next week due to our area becoming more entrenched in deep southwest flow and upper troughing to our west. Our highest PoPs of the next week arrive Tuesday evening/night where we could see showers and storms ahead of the cold front eventually pushing through. Some AI NWP severe guidance hints at a low-end severe risk, with the global guidance indicating a highly sheared but weakly unstable environment. Confidence on details remains quite low for now, but will be watching trends over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are across the region this morning, though beginning to see some mid-level clouds move in from the west that are associated with an approaching cold front. Some isolated light rain will be possible north of the terminals this morning, but the main focus is on the wind shift with the front passing through today. We'll see light southerly winds this morning become more northwesterly by this afternoon, and northerly by the overnight. Afternoon gusts up to 20kts also expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.