textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather expected through the end of the week, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

* Muggy weather increases this weekend as daily showers and storms return by Sunday afternoon.

* Above average temperatures continue through early next week with upper 80s and low 90s continuing at least through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Thursday - Friday Night...

Despite some cirrus clouds streaming in, mostly clear skies will continue tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. Morning lows will be just at or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 50s. A deep and strong high pressure will slowly drift to the south and east, shifting surface winds out of the southwest. This will boost temperatures a little warmer with increasing dew points as well. The general forecast trend beginning tomorrow will continue to see this high pressure lingering just close enough to keep weather dry but warm and muggy at the same time. Tomorrow's highs will range in the mid to upper 80s.

Calm weather will continue through Friday as shortwaves stay well north of the area. High pressure begins to break down Friday and weaken. However, SW flow will remain Friday boosting temperatures warmer than average. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with warmer than average afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. With plenty of mixing, wind gusts could reach up to 20 mph, though Friday will remain mostly sunny and calm. Overnight Friday, a trough over southern Canada will approach the Ohio Valley bringing in a trailing cold front into Saturday morning. However, this front will be stalling somewhere north of the CWA, meaning any rain chances will likely stay north of the area by then, albeit with increasing cloud coverage. This stagnant, strong high pressure will be pretty stubborn to relent considering 500mb heights approaching 80th percentile heights. With this in mind, bringing in rain chances will be difficult this weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 317 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Saturday - Early Next Week...

Come Saturday morning, increasing clouds over the northern CWA will bring in small PoPs for any remnant showers that try to move towards our area. Most likely everyone remains dry with the continued subsidence from the high pressure to our southeast. Highs on Saturday will be warm despite cloud cover in the upper 80s with isolated 90s. Dew points will make the afternoon feel muggy and sticky in the low to mid 60s as general SW flow persists in the afternoon. As the trailing cold front stalls north of the area, a pressure gradient will build Saturday afternoon, and wind gusts will increase to 20-25 MPH as a result. If nothing else, this will serve as a breeze to cool people off in the evening.

Saturday night, a messy weather pattern builds in. Surface cyclogenesis east of the Rockies will work in tandem with the SW flow from the nearby high pressure to increase moisture transport from the Gulf into KY. There is still some uncertainty with how many showers or weak general storms will move in from the SW beginning Sunday morning as general flow aloft and at the surface is weak. However, with any daytime heating and dew points raising into the upper 60s by Sunday afternoon, increasing PoPs with scattered showers and storms will continue next week.

With continued weak synoptic flow, shortwaves generally stay too far north to bring any swift changes to the overall pattern. So scattered diurnally driven showers and storms will continue through Monday and Tuesday next week. Latest LREF ensemble mean for PWAT values range near 1.75-1.9". We will definitely have the moisture for heavy downpours from storms by then. Should a boundary stall close enough to the CWA, especially over the northern border counties, then rainfall totals of close to an inch by Tuesday night are possible. Too early to get specific with rainfall totals but daily rain chances with highs in the mid 80s and low 90s seem to continue through mid week. Any relief from heat would have to be from an incoming trough from Canada. As of now, the jet seems to remain too far north for any cooler air, meaning above average temperatures will continue through mid week as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Despite a few passing cirrus clouds from time to time today, mostly clear to clear skies are expected this TAF period. Calm to light SE winds will shift out of the SW here shortly in the next few hours, increasing to 6-8 kts in the afternoon. More high level clouds stream in from the south and west tonight with lighter SW winds overnight. VFR conditions will continue tonight and into tomorrow morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.