textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region late tonight and early Friday, bringing a few isolated very light rain showers to the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 60s.

* Drier weather is expected for Saturday, but temperatures will be running well below early May values. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

* Areas of frost will be possible Sunday morning across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky. A frost headline will likely be needed for Sunday morning.

* Weather pattern may become more active early-mid next week as several systems are forecasted to move through.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High pressure continues to control the pattern across the region this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies were noted across the area with temperatures in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass with lower 60s in the I-65 corridor and points west. A small diurnal Cu field was noted over the Bluegrass region and this will dissipate later this afternoon. No significant weather is expected for this afternoon. Highs should top out in the upper 50s/lower 60s in the north with low-mid 60s over the south.

For tonight, dry weather conditions are expected for the evening hours. However, we'll see cloud cover increasing through the evening and becoming overcast overnight. This is in response to a mid-level shortwave trough axis and weak surface front that will be moving into the region. While the front and upper level wave will provide some subtle forcing for ascent, the ascent will be fighting a low-level dry air layer. So any precipitation that falls will be very light and mainly north of the I-64 corridor. Lows will range from the low-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s west of I-65.

For Friday, aforementioned upper level wave and surface front will propagate southeast across the region. Again, despite subtle lift from the wave and the front, antecedent low-level dry air will likely limit precipitation to just a few very light showers/sprinkles. While the morning will start off mostly cloudy, some partial clearing is possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s in the north with mid-upper 60s down across southern KY. Partly cloudy skies are expected for Friday night with chilly lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

For Saturday, the Ohio Valley will remain in the base of the eastern US trough with a sharper upper level wave pivoting through the base of the trough axis. Core the vorticity advection will drop through western KY and into middle TN and a few showers may develop along the I-24 corridor. Model soundings across central Kentucky show low- level dry air which should keep most areas dry. The main story for Saturday will be the much cooler than normal temperatures. Average temperatures in early May are in the lower 70s and we'll be some 10- 15 degrees below that. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to around 60 in southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Lower 60s are expected across southern KY. Skies look to clear out Saturday night with light winds. This should set the stage for a late season frost as temperatures drop into the mid 30s in the Bluegrass with upper 30s elsewhere. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the area in subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Moving into the extended period, upper trough axis will continue to move off the eastern US coast with a broad northwest flow trailing behind. Sunday will be a dry day across the region with a moderation in temperatures. Highs on the day should be in the mid- upper 60s. Within the northwest flow a perturbation is forecast to drop into the region Sunday night and will bring a chance of showers and maybe a storm or two.

The pattern will become more active as the week wears on as a large upper trough axis develops over the Plains and the Ohio Valley switches back to a southwest flow aloft. Increasing moisture and instability will work back north Tuesday/Wednesday with high chances of showers and storms as the upper trough and front push through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Some strong storms are possible here, but the details of the convective evolution are not resolvable at this time range. Beyond Wednesday, another large trough axis will likely set up across the eastern US resulting in another cool down in temps for the later half of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 756 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with light winds occurring during the overnight hours. Winds will veer to the southeast late tonight, further shifting to the southwest Friday morning ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. Winds will again shift to the northwest, as well as increase by mid-morning, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible through Friday afternoon. Gusty conditions will taper off by the end of the TAF period, resulting in calmer northwesterly winds into Friday evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.