textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Flurries and light snow are likely tonight through Friday. Some fluffy accumulations up to around an inch are possible.

* Very cold temperatures will continue this weekend with another chance of light snow Monday.

* Wind chills as cold as 0 to -10 are possible late Friday night through Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 418 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Conditions remain chilly and partly cloudy this afternoon. A belt of enhanced mid-level moisture continues to stream into the Lower OH Valley from the northwest. Plenty of lower level dry air has kept us dry, but that is set to change late this evening and overnight. A mid-level shortwave trough and weak sfc reflection currently over the Red River Valley will rotate into the Southeast through tomorrow, while a deep upper level trough drops south from the Great Lakes. Moisture lingers over the region tonight and deepens, and forecast soundings show good saturation through a deep layer down to the sfc around or shortly after Midnight.

Flurries are likely overnight, along with a narrow band of light snow which may initially set up over north-central Kentucky. The model consensus is for this band to sink east-southeast across central and eastern Kentucky Friday morning through the evening hours. The band should also expand/blossom as it moves southeast across KY due to slightly stronger mid-level frontogenetical ascent and deep moisture. A dusting of fluffy accumulation looks possible across most of central KY, but up to an inch looks possible east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass Parkway. Our east-central KY counties (Madison, Garrard, Boyle, Lincoln, Casey, Russell, etc.) have the best chance at seeing 1 inch or more of accumulation.

With temperatures in the teens and 20s tomorrow, this light snow band could coat previously plowed/treated roads, resulting in additional minor travel impacts on top of lingering impacts from the winter storm. However, additional widespread travel impacts are not expected and this will be a pretty dry, fluffy snow. And with forecast snowfall totals under an inch for the most part, will hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory at this point. Subsequent shifts could consider a near-term advisory if significant impacts appear more likely in a specific area. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the light snow potential tomorrow.

Light snow could linger in the Lake Cumberland region into Friday night, but most areas will dry out with only spotty flurries possible into early Saturday morning. The upper level trough moves overhead Friday night as strong arctic high pressure builds south over the Plains and Midwest. We will see strong cold air advection with 850 mb temps tumbling to near -19 C Saturday morning.

Temperatures will plummet into the single digits early Saturday, and a 5-10 kt north wind will continue between the strong high over the Plains and a developing storm system off the Carolina coast. There has been a consistent signal for wind chills to drop into the 0 to 10 below range late Friday night through Saturday morning. Decided to go ahead and issue a Cold Weather Advisory for this time frame.

Saturday will be very cold and somewhat breezy with steeper low- level lapse rates. Afternoon highs will only reach the teens, with wind chills remaining in the single digits. And with low-level moisture streaming off the Great Lakes, cannot totally rule out additional flurries or isolated snow showers Saturday afternoon. The DGZ will be down in the 1000-850 mb layer by that time.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 418 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Saturday night into Sunday, shortwave ridging builds in from the west. We'll start to see steady warm air advection, but Saturday night will still be frigid with lows in the single digits. Winds should diminish as the high builds in, but another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed again Sunday (especially for the Bluegrass Region). Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to mid 20s Sunday afternoon.

Temps slowly moderate early next week, but will remain below normal. A weak clipper passing well to our north could bring a small chance for light snow or flurries on Monday, but most could remain dry. Highs in the 30s look likely Monday and Tuesday, and southern KY could even approach 40 degrees by Tuesday. We'll continue to see better warm advection ahead of a stronger clipper dropping further south into the Ohio Valley, which may bring us a better chance for widespread wintry precip Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

For the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region. We continue to have light returns on the radar with snow falling aloft. However, low-level dry air will keep snow from hitting the ground for a few more hours or until stronger forcing aloft arrives. Will go ahead and carry some light snow at SDF/LEX early this morning and then at BWG tomorrow morning. Cigs will remain VFR overnight but will likely fall to MVFR by Friday afternoon. Overnight winds will remain out of the northeast at 3- 5kts.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.