textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Frost Advisory tonight over northeastern areas.

* More widespread frost and possible freeze Tuesday night.

* Dry conditions expected this week, with a trend to above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. A slight chance of a shower or storm could arrive across southern Indiana late Friday and Saturday, but confidence is low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front is pushing south through the region today. This is a dry cold front, featuring a winds shift, few-scattered Cu, and slightly drier air. Temperatures are currently in the low-mid 60s and still have another hour of heating. Gusty winds will relax with sunset, as the nocturnal inversion sets up. Though gradient winds will remain elevated around 5-9mph. These winds will limit frost production in most of the area. Though some areas in the northeastern half of the region will see cooler temperatures and light winds. Frost is most likely in valley (wind-protected) areas. A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight.

High pressure will push in from the northwest and keep conditions dry on Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft will help to keep cooler temperatures over the region. N/NE flow will keep drier air through the day, where RH may dip into the 20-25% range. Upstream precip will send some mid-level clouds over the region in the morning and early afternoon. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-upper 50s over central Kentucky and north, where southern Kentucky will see low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Tuesday Night...

With a weaker pressure gradient in place over the region Tuesday night, as well as the sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes Region, temperatures are currently forecast to be colder than Monday night. The Bluegrass region still looks to be the area most favorable for frost, though chances for areas to get a light freeze are increasing. HREF guidance is showing a greater than 50% probability of temperatures falling below freezing for areas east of I-65, with higher probabilities northeast of Lexington. Cloud cover is still an uncertainty and will play an important role in how low temperatures get Tuesday night, and in turn the frost/freeze coverage.

Wednesday - Thursday Night...

Dry weather will continue as the area of sfc high pressure will shift off to the east on Wednesday, allowing for the winds to shift southerly. This will begin our stretch of warmer weather returning to the area, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. Southerly flow and modest WAA will continue on Thursday as the area of high pressure situates itself along the Atlantic coast/SE CONUS, with highs in the low-to-mid-70s currently forecast.

Friday - Monday...

The stretch of warmer temperatures will continue through the remainder of the forecast period as southerly flow at the surface and aloft persists, with Friday highs forecast in the mid-to-upper 70s. Conditions will be mostly dry through the weekend, though a weak frontal boundary will move southeastward from the upper Midwest late Friday through Saturday could provide a chance for a shower or storm. Current LREF probabilities for rainfall totals > 0.10" are around 30% for our southern Indiana counties, with percentages rapidly decreasing south of the Ohio River. Places that do get rain from this front could experience slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday, though highs should still be in the 70s. Look for highs in the low-to-mid-80s Sunday and Monday as the ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS becomes more amplified, directing more southerly flow over the region. The next chances for showers and storms come late Sunday through Monday as a few shortwaves eject from the Great Plains northeastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. The strength of the SE CONUS ridge will play a role in the track of these waves, with current LREF probabilities for rainfall over 0.10" being less than 30% across the CWA, decreasing as you go south and east.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast period as high pressure keeps skies clear. Gusty winds coming from the WNW of 20-25 MPH are occurring now until sunset later this evening. A weak, dry cold front will sweep through overnight shifting wind directions from the WNW to the NE by Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light overnight and into the morning as VFR conditions will continue.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KYZ031>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-077- 078-081-082. IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ079.