textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty winds this morning up to 35-40mph over southern and central Kentucky as the LLJ passes through the region.

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers today and into the evening.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* A lot of uncertainty remains around the weekend as the chance for unsettled weather continues.

UPDATE

Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

With the LLJ overhead and an unexpected clearing of precip, we are seeing some of the winds aloft mix down to the surface. With the LLJ expected to remain over the region through mid morning and strengthen a bit around sunrise, have issued an SPS for winds up to 35-40mph. Do think we will remain below wind advisory criteria, but if trends continue to increase, one may be needed.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Upper troughing and a surface low pressure system will swing through the region today. Ahead of the front, a 40kt LLJ has overspread the region. This has ushered in better moisture and PWATs around 1.25 inches. Stratiform rain is pushing into the region from the SW this morning and will exit to the NE by the afternoon along the cold front. Isolated to scattered showers may remain behind the cold front and east of I-65. Model trends continue to decrease the amount of elevated instability over the region, but could see a few rumbles of thunder around sunrise through the afternoon. Over our very far SE, could see a storm move through along the front, though not expecting severe weather.

Tonight, a surface low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes region, dragging another cold front through the lower Ohio Valley. This cold front will provide stronger CAA, where temperatures will slowly fall through the day on Wednesday. Additionally, a 40kt LLJ will brush the lower Ohio Valley and a tightening pressure gradients will bring breezy winds through the day on Wednesday. Look to see sustained winds around 15-20mph and wind gusts up to 30mph. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will fall into the low 40s, which will bring wind chills down to the low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 308 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving - Black Friday...

High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday, bringing much drier and sunnier conditions. Cooler weather will stick around for the holidays. Look to see highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Thursday morning lows will be in the mid-to-upper 20s and Friday morning will be quite chilly in the upper teens and low 20s. Thursday will not be as windy as Wednesday, but will likely see gusts up to 20-22mph. These winds will make it feel about 10 degrees cooler all day.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

On Saturday, surface high pressure will shift to the east and winds will veer to the south helping to increase low-level moisture. There is still much uncertainty, however long range guidance seems consistent on bringing a system through by Sunday. Given the colder airmass over the lower Ohio Valley, the track of the system will be important. If the system tracks over Kentucky or south, we could see a chance for snow or rain/snow mix. If the system tracks north, it will remain as rain. The remainder of the weekend and into the next week continues to look unsettled and keeps precip chances in the region, though ensembles and deterministic guidance is really struggling to create a picture of what that looks like.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

A 40kt LLJ has overspread the region at this hour and will bring LLWS (northern terminals) or gusty winds up to 30kts (southern terminals). We are currently sitting with mostly VFR CIGs and VIS as lower CIGs and rain will steadily move in from the west. Southern areas will have a few hours after sunrise before they see MVFR CIGs. Northern sites may see high-end IFR for most of the day. After the precip shield exits, isolated to scattered showers will remain through the evening. Overnight, low CIGs will steadily push east and lift. Another cold front will move through the region early Wednesday morning, bringing gusty westerly winds.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.