textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely through Sunday, with temperatures expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal. Record high temperatures are likely on Sunday.

* A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday night. Showers, some storms, and gusty winds are likely at times Sunday and Sunday night. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

* Temperatures plummet into the 30s by Monday morning, with colder weather lingering through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Current satellite continues to show widespread stratus across the region as southern Indiana and central KY reside in the warm sector of an approaching cold front. The light returns on radar have diminished over the past hour, but model soundings do show enough moisture trapped near the surface below 850mb that a few pockets of light rain or drizzle could still occur.

As the front approaches, moisture pooling along the boundary will likely result in fog and very low clouds. Expect that a dense fog advisory may be issued later this evening or early tomorrow morning, especially in the bluegrass region.

Fog will burn off by late morning, but clouds will likely remain. Otherwise, Saturday should be a quiet weather day with above normal temperatures as afternoon highs top out in the 60 to 70 range.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Two shortwave impulses, one coming out of southern CA and another digging south out of MT, will phase together over the Central Plains, amplifying the large scale trough over the central CONUS. At the surface, smaller frontal boundaries will congeal into a one elongated cold front extending from the Great Lakes to TX, while a warm front lifts across the OH Valley during the day Sunday. Within the warm sector, strong SW winds will result in potentially record breaking warm temperatures with highs reaching into the 70s (see climate section below). Expect a warm, breezy day with gusts in the 20-30mph range. There's also a chance of showers during the day Sunday, with the best chances occurring north of the OH River where better moisture and isentropic lift exist.

The aforementioned cold front will quickly move across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate abundant wind energy with this system, with a 55-60kt LLJ in response to a 150kt upper level jet core. Moist air advection within the strong SW flow will result in PWATs over the 90th percentile of sounding climatology while surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. With that being said, instability just ahead of this system remains weak with only a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, so expecting convection to be elevated. The main concern will be potential for damaging wind gusts as a thin, long line of storms pushes through the region overnight. SPC has issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk for these reasons.

Non-diurmanl maximum temperatures in the 60s will occur just after midnight early Monday before the cold front sweeps through the region. Cold air filtering in behind the front will result in decreasing temperatures throughout the day, with readings falling into the 30s by early afternoon. It'll be a race between the retreating moisture and the incoming cold air as to whether we'll see any light snow showers on Monday, but it is possible. Otherwise, expect cold and dry conditions to continue for the rest of the forecast cycle with lows in the teens to low 20s and highs in the 30s, maybe low 40s on Wednesday, and back in the 30s on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 639 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Have seen pockets of VFR over the region this evening, though MVFR CIGs will mostly prevail. A cold front is just entering southern Indiana and will continue to push southeast through the region. This front will bring a wind shift to the north. Winds will continue to veer through the forecast period. Moisture trapped in the low levels, pockets of SCT-BKN clouds this evening, and light winds will allow for low stratus and fog to develop. There is a good signal for dense fog in some areas in the early morning hours. Have included this in the TAFs, and confidence in this occurring is medium. VIS and CIGs will slowly improve by late Saturday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 402 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Record High Temperatures Likely Sunday...

Sun, Dec 28th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 70 (2021) | 72 LEX 67 (2021) | 71

BWG 72 (2021) | 76

FFT 69 (2021) | 71

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.