textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and dry weather expected today through Saturday. Strong, potentially advisory-level gradient winds are expected on Friday.

* A strong cold front is expected to move across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Strong gradient winds are expected, with a chance for strong to severe storms along the front.

* Much colder conditions expected for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

This morning, the cold front which crossed our area yesterday afternoon and evening has crossed the Appalachians, with post- frontal stratus clouds and strong cold air advection continuing across the Ohio Valley. The last of the rain showers are now pushing into eastern KY as drier air surges in from the northwest. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s and low 40s across the area, with most locations expected to fall into the 30s for lows this morning.

Over the next 3-6 hours, the back edge of the low stratus should begin to clear from NW to SE, with sunny skies returning for all by midday today. 1032 mb sfc high over the southern Plains this morning should elongate into a high pressure ridge which extends into the Ohio Valley by this afternoon. This should promote pleasant, albeit cooler conditions today, with highs only expected to reach the upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s this afternoon. Deep mixing today should allow for ample mid-level dry air to reach the surface, and would expect minimum RH values in the 20s and 30s across the area this afternoon. Fortunately, with recent rainfall and relatively light winds, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal.

This evening into tonight, a compact upper shortwave is expected to eject across the northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes, with an associated sfc low rapidly deepening ahead of the upper wave. This should result in height/pressure falls to our northwest, with winds picking up out of the south, especially after midnight. These increasing winds combined with increasing mid- and upper-level clouds should keep temperatures from cooling much after midnight, with lows favored to range from the mid 30s to the low 40s tonight.

Friday will be a milder and windy day across the area as the deep sfc low moves across Michigan and into Ontario. Ensemble mean progs feature a minimum pressure below 990 mb, which will lead to a strong pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley. Given over 60 kt of SW flow at 850 mb, it is fairly likely that once daytime BL mixing begins, we'll get some advisory-level wind gusts across northern KY and southern IN. NBM exceedance probabilities of greater than 40 mph wind gusts are greater than 40% along and north of a line roughly from Tell City to Liberty, with probabilities at the typically windy locations ranging from 70-90%.

Low-level moisture return is expected to be lacking with Friday's system, with little more than extra mid- and high-level clouds expected. In the past, these setups can typically overperform on temperatures, so have nudged highs up into the low-to-mid 60s across the area. By the evening hours, the sfc cold front should push through the area, bringing modest cold advection into the area. With winds expected to relax Friday evening into Friday night, temperatures should fall into the 30s and low 40s Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Saturday - Monday...

The cold front which will move through the area later in the day on Friday should fizzle out over TN Saturday morning before beginning to lift back to the north during the day on Saturday. With the front bisecting the area on Saturday, there should be a relatively strong north-south gradient in temperatures. Current consensus high temperatures range from near 60 in southern IN to the low 70s along the KY/TN border. Otherwise, Saturday should be a quiet weather day with light SE winds and scattered mid- and high clouds.

There have been no major changes in medium-range guidance with the 11/12Z and the 12/00Z runs for the late weekend system, with a highly-amplified upper trough and strong cold front still progged to blast through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. As the system develops over the northern Plains Saturday night, upper-level height rises over the Ohio Valley should assist the sfc warm front through the region, with winds becoming southerly across the region by Sunday morning. Temperatures will be milder Saturday night and especially on Sunday, with highs likely to surge into the 70s across the area Sunday afternoon. Given the rapidly deepening sfc low to our NW, advisory-level gradient winds will certainly be possible Sunday into Sunday night, with current NBM probabilities of exceeding 40 mph wind gusts ranging from 30-80% across the area.

As the trailing cold front moves closer to the region Sunday afternoon and evening, return flow will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s across the area, which should at least be sufficient for non- zero instability as the front moves through Sunday night. While instability still appears to be limited, the wind field and forcing for ascent will be extremely potent with this system as the upper shortwave takes on a neutral- to slightly negative tilt over the Ohio Valley. While confidence in specifics is still relatively low, signals for severe convection remain for Sunday night, with CSU and NCAR AI/ML probabilities gradually increasing. At the very least, the wind field would support strong wind gusts in rain showers, but we'll continue to monitor trends over the next few days in case the threat increases.

The cold advection behind the front Monday morning should be extremely strong, with temperatures likely falling over 30 degrees within the first 3-6 hours of cold FROPA. Depending on how much moisture lingers behind the front, precipitation could change to snow on Monday, though this is still fairly uncertain at this point. What is much more certain is that Monday should be a cold and windy day, with highs some 40 degrees colder than on Sunday, likely remaining in the 30s.

Monday Night - Middle of Next Week...

Some of the coldest air since January should settle into the region Monday night, with lows Tuesday morning likely falling into the teens to around 20. Even though NW winds will be gradually easing, wind chills may fall into the single digits Monday night, especially along and north of I-64. Upper troughing will begin to lift to the northeast on Tuesday, with a NW flow pattern setting up for the middle of next week. Within this pattern, we'll have to watch for a clipper system which could bring light wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, the broader pattern signals mainly dry weather for much of next week. Temperatures should gradually warm as we get later into next week as upper ridging across the western CONUS spreads to the east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Gusty N/NW winds will continue over the next few hours at area terminals as the cold front has now completely pushed through the region. A few rain showers will linger near LEX/RGA over the next 1- 2 hours, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the current forecast period. MVFR stratus will clear from NW to SE later this morning, with all sites expected to return to VFR conditions between 09-13Z. For the rest of the current forecast period, VFR conditions and NW winds are expected, with 15-20 kt gusts possible this afternoon. By the end of the TAF period, a LLJ will begin to move over the region, with LLWS likely after 06Z Friday. Have opted to leave this out of the forecast for now, but the signal is fairly strong.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.