textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern expected over the next couple of days with showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight again again on Thursday.

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and into late Thursday evening. The highest threat of severe weather will be across southern Indiana with a conditional severe threat across Kentucky.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across southern Indiana with partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of Kentucky. Where skies have cleared out, temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across southern Indiana and into the far northern counties of Kentucky. Downstate in the cloud cover, temperatures were about 10 degrees cooler with readings in the upper 50s to the very low 60s. A few showers were noted moving east along the KY/TN border. For the remainder of the afternoon, we should see some continued clearing across southern Indiana and down into western parts of Kentucky. Some of this clearing could work as far south as the Cumberland Parkway. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid- upper 60s over the northern half of Kentucky with upper 60s and lower 70s across southern Indiana. Where clouds hang on longer, temps may struggle to break out of the 50s across far southern KY.

For tonight, the exit region of a mid-upper level jet will overspread the region. Across our far south/southeast (Lake Cumberland Region), we'll likely have a weak convergence zone which will likely feature a training area of showers, and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. To the north of this area, model data suggests that a very dry airmass will be located aloft over the top of an increasingly moist near-surface airmass. A bit of fog may develop over the Bluegrass region late tonight and early Thursday morning. Later in the night, convergence boundary to the south looks to lift northward as a defacto warm frontal boundary. Given the exit region of the mid-level jet over the top of us, we could see a few elevated showers/storms go up toward dawn Thursday. Latest HRRR guidance suggests this could occur in a corridor roughly from Hawesville, KY southeast toward Somerset. Model soundings show pretty meager MUCAPE here of 100-200 J/kg available, so overall threat of severe convection looks very limited. However, brief heavy rains and lightning would be possible with this early day activity. Lows tonight will be quite mild with lower 50s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Lows in the low- mid 50s are expected across southern Kentucky.

Moving into Thursday, an active period of weather is expected across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. An area of surface low pressure is expected to move from the eastern Plains northeast into the western Great Lakes by late Thursday night. As this occurs, a warm frontal boundary will lift northward through the region Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. This will place much of our area within a broad warm sector. Aloft, we'll have a 35-40kt LLJ out of the south with a broad 80-90kt mid-level jet axis overspreading the region.

By late morning to early afternoon, a modest shortwave trough aloft will approach the region from the west. Despite being 24h out from the event, we're still seeing a bit of spread with the shortwave trough placement. The NAM solutions are pretty far north compared to the GFS/Euro/HRRR/RAP solutions. The NAM solutions would keep most of the convection well north of the Ohio River. However, the further south placement of the wave by the GFS/Euro/HRRR/RAP is a bit more concerning as convection may develop a bit more southwest that previous forecasts indicated.

Surface warm frontal boundary will lift northward in the late morning and early afternoon and will eventually settle across southern Indiana. High resolution model solutions continue to differ significantly on where convective initiation will take place. The latest HRRR runs are a bit earlier with discrete convection firing along a line from Henderson to Fort Knox to Frankfort by early afternoon, while other high resolution cores (WRF) keep CI much later in the afternoon across southern IN. Model soundings along and just south of the Ohio River show favorable, elongated hodographs with low-level curvature that would favor discrete supercells with a tornado and perhaps large hail threat. As of this writing, we still feel that the highest tornado threat Thursday afternoon would be in areas north of the Ohio River (across southern/central Indiana).

To the south of the warm front, mainly south of the WK/BG Parkways, convection looks to be much more isolated in nature. Clearing skies and strong southwest winds will likely allow some mixing which could scour out low-level moisture a bit.

By late afternoon/evening, surface pre-frontal trough axis will shift eastward and we may see initial discrete convection across southern Indiana modulate into more of a linear type structure as forcing increases along the cold front. We're not entirely sure we'll see one main line, but it could be a couple of different convective lines that move across the region during the evening hours. However, as the evening wears on, low-level moisture is forecast to get shunted off to the south/east and instability generally decreases fairly rapidly after sunset. However, we'll still have the low-level jet in the area and with some models showing steeper lapse rates overspreading the area. Therefore, convection may continue have a wind damage threat into the evening as it crosses Kentucky. Convection should continue into the overnight with a marked weakening trend. Temps during the day will surge into the upper 60s/lower 70s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Highs in the mid 70s are likely across southern KY. Lows Thursday night will cool back into the 40s/50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 328 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Friday - Tuesday...

Friday morning brings calmer conditions to the area except for maybe the far eastern sections of central KY, where leftover showers could be possible based on the timing of an exiting cold front to the east. There could still be some gusty winds just ahead of the cold front in these same areas up to 20-25 mph associated with the increased pressure gradient and overpassing LLJ as well. In its wake though, winds will begin to calm along with drying skies and pleasant weather and cooling temperatures. Highs for the day will actually have been reached during the pre-dawn hours and temperatures in the afternoon will be slightly cooler near the low to upper 50s.

Saturday starts off chilly with a few northern areas possibly reaching freezing but otherwise calm. During the day, highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Clouds build in later in the evening as another trough swings over the Ohio Valley bringing some rain showers mostly late in the evening or overnight into Sunday. Current trends suggest this event will be small and rain favors southeastern areas. Some areas overnight in to Sunday morning may have a quick changeover to snow however this is a situation of the cold air chasing the moisture and not expecting any meaningful impacts should this changeover take place. Everyone should fall below freezing as a colder air mass from Canada begins moving in.

A series of shortwaves associated with a large midlevel trough will move to the southeast US, ushering in below normal tempertures and quiet weather Sunday and Monday. Other than some clouds, Sunday will be calm with highs in the 40s and as the midlevel trough digs deeper to the south, a colder air mass moves in on Monday. Lows on Monday morning may start in the teens and 20s with highs struggling to get above freezing except for our southern areas it seems. The cold air is short lived as the trough moves away and general ridging building in from the west will bring temperatures back to near normal on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

MVFR cigs look to lift later this afternoon at the terminals. Gusty southwest winds should also become more relaxed as low-level jet axis translates east of the region. Should see a brief dry period this evening before a warm frontal boundary lift northwards overnight. Could see some showers/storms across southern KY as the boundary lifts northward. On the north side of the warm front, a mix of low clouds or patchy dense fog looks likely over at RGA/LEX late tonight and early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve somewhat Thursday morning as the warm front lifts northward. Winds will shift from the SE overnight to the southwest Thursday morning. Question here is about cigs, probably will remain mainly MVFR Thursday morning with a possible rise to VFR toward the end of the period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.