textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Slight chance for showers and a rumble of thunder Friday in our northern counties, with warmer temperatures as well.

* First Extended Period of Summer Heat: Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s with 90s possible for the end of the weekend into the start of next week. Near record highs are possible.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day Saturday with some storms having the potential to be strong to severe with strong gusty winds and hail.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms appear likely next Tuesday through the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This period of nice weather will continue tonight as the area of surface high pressure sits nearly overhead. Any gradient-induced winds will decrease this evening, becoming fairly calm for most of the overnight. Overnight temperatures will again be cool/cold, with lows in the low-to-mid 40s.

A weak shortwave moves over the area on Friday, with a cluster of showers and some thunderstorms trekking towards our northwest CWA during the early morning hours. With dry air in place currently, these showers and storms are expected to mostly dissipate by the time it enters our area, with only a slight chance (15-30%) for rain in our northern counties throughout the day. With the area of high pressure moving to our east, southerly flow will increase during the day and help raise our temperatures into the mid-to-upper 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

The main story through the weekend and into early next week will be our first extended period of summer warmth. Highs are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s with the potential of seeing our first 90 degree plus day since September of last year. Upper pattern will feature ridging strengthen over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and into the eastern third of the CONUS by the start of next week. At the sfc, high pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic increasing southerly flow. This will allow for increased both warm air and moisture advection into the region.

While there is high forecast confidence on temperatures warming well above normal (by at least 10 degrees) there is lower confidence on widespread 90 degree heat across the CWA. NBM guidance continues to be way to warm and the outlier with highs at record values while the GFS ensemble seems to be more on the lower end of the spread. ECMWF and ensembles seemed to be a happy medium between the very warm NBM and the cooler GEFS, with that said, decided to scale back temperatures Sunday, Monday and Tuesday to be right around 90 with Monday currently the hottest day. Dew points are expected to be in the low 60s on Sunday and the mid 60s by Monday and Tuesday creating a very sticky summer-like forecast for the start of the long term.

Along with the summer heat, a couple of opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible both on Saturday and then again late Monday into Tuesday.

Saturday's Storm Threat: Current SPC Day 3 Outlook has locations along and north of I-64 and west of I-65 in KY with a good portion of our southern IN CWA in a Marginal Outlook (Level 1 out of 5) for the potential for severe weather. Warm front will lift northward Friday night into Saturday placing the area in the warm sector. A weak LLJ will be positioned near and north of the Ohio River during the day as a series of mid-level vort maxes move through the Ohio Valley. Confidence is low in the severe threat as there appears to be some potential limiting factors. Model soundings continue to show a bit of a inversion cap around 900mb. The first shortwave looks to move through Friday night into early Saturday morning, and if we get any lingering clouds with this activity, that would decrease instability later in the afternoon. Currently the main threat appears to be strong gusty winds and potential for some hail.

Our next chance of showers and storms look to be Tuesday and continue into the middle of the week. Confidence is low as our shower and storm chances hinge on the arrival of a sfc cold front approaching from the west and if and where it potentially could stall over the region. Temperatures will also be determined by the placement of the cold front but for now, highs Wednesday and Thursday look to be slightly cooler more in the mid to low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with any current gusty conditions decreasing in the next few hours. Winds tonight across the terminals will be calm, steadily increasing out of the south during the morning and early afternoon hours. Weakening showers and a few storms will enter from the northwest after 12z, though confidence is too low to include any precipitation in the HNB or SDF TAFs at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.