textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather start to 2026 with one system to watch for additional light rains Friday afternoon through Saturday.

* Milder temperatures into the 50s and possibly 60s for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 402 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

The bulk of the clipper system has worked off to the east with mainly just some lingering low clouds over the area this morning. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, as the surface boundary sags further south, we could still get some areas of freezing drizzle as temperatures to the north and northeast are in the low 30s with it dropping to near freezing just before dawn. Continued to keep that in the forecast.

The New Year will usher in more dry weather and with the lingering cloud cover during the morning and possibly into the early afternoon, decided to knock temperatures down from guidance, especially where clouds linger the longest across parts of southern IN into the Bluegrass, Expect temperatures under the clouds to struggle to reach 40. Outside of the clouds where we could get some sunshine, temperatures could warm into the 40s and potentially upper 40s near the KY/TN border.

We could see some brief clearing later today and evening before clouds increase ahead of the next approaching system for the end of the week. With light winds and possible clearing lows will be in the mid/upper 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 402 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

The next potential system of interest continues to be the southern stream system late Friday into early Saturday morning. Determinist models are coming into better agreement and continue to keep the best chance of the precipitation 40-60% across our southern CWA into TN. With areas mainly north of the WK/BG Parkways remaining dry. Also, precipitation looks to fall mainly as rain with temperatures on Friday are expected to climb into the upper 40s/low 50s where the bulk of the perception is expected with low 40s north of the parkways. If the moisture were to push further north, then we may see a scenario with a wintry mix of likely sleet/rain given the temperatures profiles.

After a brief cool down for the weekend behind the passing system, we will start to see a warmer more milder trend in temperatures and relatively quiet and uneventful weather. After highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s/30s over the weekend, we warm into the 50s and even possible some places into the 60s by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 703 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Sfc boundary will continue to sag south across the region with low stratus along and out ahead. This is creating MVFR flight categories for most of our terminal sites with the exception of BWG where it will remain VFR through the forecast period. Winds are expected shift and become more northerly later today but may shift and be light enough to go variable for most locations.

MVFR flight categories will hold on for most of the day until about evening for locations in MVFR this morning. There will be a period of clearing before more clouds increase and places like LEX could go back to MVFR later tonight along with RGA.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.