textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM EDT this evening for portions of central KY. Slow moving storms can still drop additional 1-2+" of rain in isolated areas.

* Cut-off low will remain close enough for afternoon convection Monday in our eastern communities, with a limited, marginal flash flooding risk in isolated areas.

* There is a warmer and drier trend in the forecast from Tuesday through Friday with isolated storms in our south on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

===== Sunday - Monday =====

Scattered showers and storms will continue this evening until just after sunset. Weak flow aloft throughout the vertical columns above KY have thankfully limited any severe potential to just the usual concerns with summertime convection, being lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Earlier this morning, several flood products were issued and flash flooding occurred in a few areas through central KY. Despite the weak mid-level lapse rates and weak flow aloft, PWATs of 1.9-2.0", some moisture transport from the 925-850mb layer, and a convergent boundary over central KY will continue the flash flooding threat until near midnight tonight. This is further supported by the slow movement these storms have taken so far. Altogether, a general <0.5" will fall across the area with some southern IN communities remaining dry. The same can be said for KY, though this is where the greatest flooding potential is, with an additional 1-3" in areas that experience stagnant, slow moving storms.

After the storms dissipate by tonight, clouds will slowly begin to clear over southern IN and at least thin everywhere else. Isolated areas of fog may form due to this partial clearing, although confidence is very low (~20%). Lows tonight will range in the upper 60s to isolated low 70s.

Monday morning begins calm with light northeast winds and clearing skies in along and north of the Ohio River. However, as the cut-off low responsible for the ongoing storms drifts southward, its slow- moving progress may not be enough for us to dry out completely tomorrow afternoon. As a result, PoPs increase for typical summertime convection, although storms will be more focused over our southeastern border of the CWA. Closer towards the Ohio, lower PWATs will filter in behind the departing cut-off low, where southern IN and the Louisville area will likely (80-90%) remain dry. In a NE to SW oriented area, storms will refire again though no severe weather is expected with the weak shear aloft. Flash flooding will again be possible, although the coverage of the storms will be much less compared to today's coverage, meaning any flash flooding risk will be isolated in nature. More communities will remain dry, though isolated rainfall totals from slow-moving storms could range 1-3", but most will see <0.25" or remain dry. As typical summertime convection does, storms wane after sunset and everyone dries out again with lows in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

===== Tuesday Through the Weekend =====

The cut-off low will continue drifting south and west moving westward and will eventually a Rex blocking pattern over the central US. It still may be close enough to spawn new storms Tuesday afternoon, though we are keeping PoPs low ~30% across our southern border counties with TN. PWATs are highest there around 1.7", though any threat from these storms would be lightning and gusty winds. As the low departs slowly, a high pressure at the surface will keep everyone else dry north of the Cumberland Parkway. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The synoptic Rex blocking pattern over the central US won't allow our weather to change much it seems for Wednesday into Friday. Should the high to our west retain its strength, we may remain dry through then. LREF guidance on the 500mb heights compared to the climatological normal values reach the 95th percentile, which means the forecast next week is trending drier. For each of these three days, highs will range in the upper 80s to low 90s still. Eventually, the high will break down and a trough over the eastern US may bring in bursts of shortwaves to increase general storm chances for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The coverage of showers and storms is quickly decreasing across the area this evening, with BWG being the only terminal that could experience precipitation in the next couple hours. VFR conditions should persist tonight, though some patchy fog could develop near RGA after 08z that would result in MVFR visibilities. Any fog that does develop will quickly dissipate after sunrise. VFR cigs will continue during the day on Monday, though chances for showers and storms will slightly increase during the afternoon. LEX, RGA, and BWG would have the highest likelihood of experiencing showers or storms Monday, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF package.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for KYZ078-081-082. IN...None.