textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm today with increasing clouds and afternoon highs of 75-80 degrees.

* Scattered showers expected across southern Indiana and north- central Kentucky this evening. A few isolated storms are also possible.

* Warmer Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

* High uncertainty with the general unsettled weather pattern for next week with daily rain chances beginning late Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Early this morning, conditions are dry in the Lower Ohio Valley. A band of showers and thunderstorms stretching from Kansas to Michigan is pushing east/southeast along a cold front. We are already seeing cirrus spread in from the northwest this morning from the upstream convection. Expect that trend to continue, with increasing high clouds this morning and thickening mid-level clouds this afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.

Today will be warm and breezy with southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph are expected from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 70s during the middle of the afternoon, with a few spots touching 80. The arrival of mid and high level clouds, and how quickly those clouds thicken, does introduce more uncertainty as to exactly how warm it gets.

A mid/upper level trough swings east over Ontario and the Great Lakes today, with the cold front sinking along the Ohio River around 00Z this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms should accompany the front into southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky after 5 PM EDT this evening. Instability looks meager due to warm mid-level air and poor lapse rates.

Tonight, shower activity will diminish and become more isolated in nature. The mid/upper level trough will lift further northeast, while the rapidly weakening cold front gets caught between two areas of high pressure with no upper level support. The boundary eventually just washes out over south-central KY heading into Saturday. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm over south-central KY Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of what's left of the boundary. A lingering moisture axis will be draped through that region with PW values near or just above 1.0 inch, but forcing is quite weak.

Mid and upper level ridging amplifies as it builds east over the MS Valley, OH Valley, and Southeast over the weekend. Expect mainly dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will vary more from north to south on Saturday due to that washed out boundary. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s in the north to the low 80s near the TN border. Warm southwest flow redevelops on Sunday ahead of a stronger area of low pressure over the northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures will surge into the 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The pattern becomes more active starting Sunday night as a shortwave moves over the area, providing another opportunity for showers and a few storms. As this is going on, the persistent ridge over the SE CONUS slowly drifts to the east as an upper-level trough develops over the eastern Rockies/Great Plains. This will allow the upper jet to sit over the region and to our north, acting as a roadway for multiple disturbances to move by and produce showers and storms. Southerly/southwesterly flow will continue for us as we stay to the east of the trough, allowing for well-above average temperatures to persist into late next week. The alignment of the upper jet will be important for how much rainfall we experience next week. LREF guidance has the main core of the upper jet to our north, limiting the amount of total rainfall we could experience. The current consensus has most places over the area getting less than 1.00" of rain next week, but if the placement of the jet drifts south, those totals could increase.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least 00Z Saturday. After 00Z Saturday, ceilings are forecast to lower to 4-5 kft with the probability for MVFR gradually increasing late Friday night.

Skies are currently clear, but cirrus originating from convective activity over MO/IL will gradually spread ESE over the region this morning. The showers and storms upstream have developed along a cold front, which is forecast to move southeast into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Expect high clouds and breezy SW winds today ahead of the frontal boundary. Mid and lower level clouds will spread in from the northwest this afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Expect a broken band of rain showers to move southeast through HNB/SDF/LEX between 21-05Z. Isolated TSRA are possible, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. These rain showers will diminish with time, with any precip becoming fairly spotty by early Saturday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.