textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering light rain across southern KY through this evening.

* Coldest night of the week will be Thursday night where upper 30s and low 40s are possible. Frost may be possible over the far northeastern Bluegrass.

* High temperatures look to warm back into the 70s this weekend, ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Showers and some strong storms will be possible on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

The cold front continues to push southeast and the low clouds will continue to follow. Mid level convergence is bringing lift to some modest moisture over southern Kentucky and beginning to bring in some light rain. This will continue through the early evening. Overnight, clouds will continue to push southeast and winds will become calm to light. Even with these conditions and recent precip, not seeing much of a fog presence. Ensembles show less than a 10% chance for fog tonight. This could be due to the light northerly wind bringing in drier air in the lower levels and delayed sky clearing.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will keep conditions cool and dry. Looking to see highs in the low-mid 60s. Thursday night, high pressure will move across the region to the east. A shortwave trough will pass just to the north of the CWA, but we will remain dry and mostly clear. Calm to light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling. Low temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Some cool spots in the Bluegrass and eastern CWA may see mid 30s. Patchy frost will be possible Friday morning. Confidence is quite low right now (10-20% Chance of Occurrence), but will continue to monitor. If frost occurs, this would be a late season frost, as only about 10% of frosts occur on or after May 8th.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Friday - Saturday...

With surface high pressure still in place over central Kentucky and northern Indiana, the end of the workweek will be dry. With southerly surface flow also in place, temperatures will get closer to normal for this time of year, with highs in the low 70s. A shortwave and associated surface low moves through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning, providing a relatively quick round of showers and some thunderstorms. Current LREF guidance focuses the higher totals from this event over our southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, with accumulations up to 0.35". While the wind shear profile is decent, little-to-no instability is present, so there is still no concern for any severe potential at this time. Once the shortwave departs to the east, surface ridging building in will allow for a mild and dry Saturday with highs in the low-to-mid 70s.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The latest guidance continues to bring another system over our region on Sunday, lasting into the early overnight hours. However, differences in more of the finer details continues to be a trend, keeping confidence on the overall impacts for Sunday low. Two distinct shortwaves, one over the central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley and another ejecting from the Rio Grande to the SE CONUS, phase late Sunday and establish an amplified upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS and a robust surface low near the NE CONUS. Currently, the phasing of the two shortwaves mainly takes place off to our east, with us primarily dealing with the northern shortwave on Sunday, thought the northern periphery of the second shortwave could clip our southern counties. If the phasing of the two waves were to take place sooner, we would be dealing with a more robust system that could increase the potential for stronger storms. The timing of the cold frontal passage on Sunday is also uncertain, and a delayed progression of the front would allow for us to further destabilize. Guidance continues to be bearish on the overall wind shear profile ahead of the frontal passage, which in turn would limit the potential for more robust convective development. It is still too early to hone in on the finer details but will be something worth monitoring over the coming days.

Monday - Wednesday...

As the phasing shortwaves depart to our east, upper-level troughing and surface ridging will bring a return to calmer weather for the start of the workweek. Morning temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be cold and in the 40s, with below-average afternoon highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. The end of the forecast period late Tuesday- Wednesday will again be active as a shortwave from Manitoba and Saskatchewan moves towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Guidance is very uncertain on the timing and placement of the shortwave, so PoPs remain low (<35%) during that timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 735 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing and will continue through the whole TAF period. BWG is seeing showers now that are expected to end by 03Z, while everyone else remains dry. Light winds generally from the NW will slowly shift from the N or become light and variable overnight. Ceilings slowly raise overnight while clearing in the NW overnight as well. Winds shift from the NW during the day Thursday with higher level FEW-SCT clouds at times for everyone as VFR persists into Thursday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.