textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperatures are expected this week with record warm minimum temperatures possible tonight and Wednesday, and near record highs possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

* Active weather pattern expected for mid-late week with showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong/severe storms are possible Thursday into late Thursday evening, but the threat remains conditional at this time.

* A return to colder weather looks likely for late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently, mid-level clouds are blanketing the area with winds of 15- 20 mph in the west and calmer winds in the east. High temperatures are still forecast to be in the low to mid 60s through most of the area, although a thicker deck of clouds rolling in from the west will keep our far western areas in the mid to upper 50s. Otherwise, skies remain dry heading into this evening. Overnight, an LLJ will move in from the southwest which is expected to mix higher wind gusts down to the ground noting the weak inversion setting up tonight and keep winds breezy with gusts 20-30mph, the higher of those more possible closer to sunrise.

The orientation of the LLJ will maintain a southwesterly flow keeping temperatures to record high minimums overnight in the low to mid 50s. Moisture transport in lower levels will build in more clouds into Wednesday morning and may bring in a few showers and sprinkles. Recent trends suggest this will be light and of not much concern, so PoPs will be low for these showers tomorrow morning. Clouds and spotty showers stick around through the morning moving east, out of the area by the afternoon. Clouds may thin in the evening hours when a weak cold front moves through and dries out the lower levels. Despite the clouds, temperatures will be boosted by the constant SW flow all day tomorrow, with near record highs reaching the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow evening, winds will die down as the LLJ associated with the low moving into the northern Great Lakes will weaken and move east. SW flow at the surface will keep low temperatures tomorrow night warm still, ranging in the low to mid 50s once again. Calm conditions and much above average temperatures linger into Thursday morning as our SW flow continues once again for our warmest day of the week on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Thursday and Thursday Night...

On Thursday morning, the upper level flow will be characterized by a large trough in the western CONUS/inter-mountain west with a broad west-southwest flow aloft from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. During the day two shortwave troughs are forecast to lift northeastward from the Plains and into Ohio Valley. The first of these shortwaves look to reach IL/IN by Thursday afternoon, with the other coming through on Friday.

The model trends continue to show this initial shortwave trough axis to weaken modestly with time as it comes into IL/IN. A sub 1000mb surface low will accompany this feature and modest moisture return off the Gulf should advect northward into portions of the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the trough, some models depict either a pre- frontal trough or maybe a dryline type feature that will be the focus for afternoon convection. Current surface analysis reveal rather meager moisture limited to along the Gulf coast. While the low-level flow will be rather robust on Thursday, there remains considerable uncertainty on how far north quality moisture can get. To me, it would appear that the vast majority of guidance would suggest that maybe some mid-upper 50s dewpoints could get as far north as the confluence of the MS/OH rivers. Model soundings from across the region show modest lapse rates aloft and the overall soundings continue to show a rather shallow convective profile. Forcing aloft continues to look good as we'll have the LLJ around 850 pushing at 35-40kts with 80-90kt mid-level jet with the exit region close by. However, model soundings from some of the more reliable convective models have a bit of capping in areas mainly south of the Ohio River.

Current thinking is that we may see some convective development out across southern IL/SW IN in the afternoon where the effective shear vector is perpendicular to the aforementioned pre-frontal trough axis. Given the environmental profile, supercells and multi- cellular convection would be the favored mode initially with a gradual upgrowth into linear segments. Much of this afternoon convection may remain just northwest of the LMK CWA. Further south and east, questions remain about the strength of cap and warmer air aloft. It seems possible that at least some scattered showers/storms could develop in the afternoon. Otherwise, southwest winds will be gusty and temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to around 70 across southern Indiana and across the northern half of Kentucky. Across southern Kentucky, highs in the lower-middle 70s seem reasonable.

For Thursday night, the pre-frontal trough axis will continue to move northeast into IN/OH with a cluster of convection. Surface cold front to the west will slide eastward into the Ohio Valley. Stronger forcing along the front should result in a gradual increase in shower/storms across southern IN and into central KY. Given the environmental wind fields, strong/severe storms may be possible across our area with an isolated tornado or two and damaging winds being the main threat. The severe threat eastward will likely trail off fairly quickly east of the I-65 corridor as the moisture gets pinched off to the south fairly quickly. Behind the front, temperatures will fall into the lower 40s in southern Indiana with mid-upper 40s will be found elsewhere.

For Friday, a mostly dry day looks on tap and the air behind this front is not overly cold. A gradient of temperature will be seen with highs in the lower-mid 50s across southern IN and northern Kentucky with lower 60s possible south of the Cumberland Parkway. Lows Friday night will drop back into the 30s.

For Saturday, the frontal boundary from Thursday night will likely hang up to our south, though model solutions continue to have a bit of spread in their solutions. Could at least some light precipitation across southern KY on Saturday as a weak perturbation ejects out of the southwestern US trough base. The boundary layer will remain warm here with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s across the south.

Secondary perturbation looks to move in late Saturday and into Saturday night with a noticeable colder pattern coming behind it. Could see an initial wave of precipitation in the form of cold rain Saturday night ending as a period of snow by late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-upper 30s with overnight lows in the low-mid 20s.

A drier pattern is expected for Monday and Tuesday but temperatures will be cold. Highs Monday will remain in the 30s with temps moderating a bit on Tuesday into the lower-mid 40s. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens/lower 20s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected this evening with wind gusts up to 20- 30kts through the overnight hours. Current cloud decks are higher level clouds though they will lower overnight bringing in periods of MVFR. Southerly winds will slowly shift SW overnight as well remaining light of near 5-10 kts but will increase to 10-15 kts along with those higher wind gusts mentioned before. Clouds stick around through morning and all day tomorrow along with a chance of a few drizzles and rain showers but still only expecting MVFR conditions for the lower cloud decks with these showers. Eventually by tomorrow afternoon, winds begin to calm and cloud heights raise as we kick out any rain showers off to the east when VFR conditions are expected to return.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.