textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty winds will continue this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

* Slow moving cold front will bring widespread rain showers to the region late tonight through Friday night. Additional rounds of showers are possible across southern Kentucky on Saturday.

* Dry weather will return to the region by Sunday with much of next week remaining dry. Temperatures next week will be seasonal with large diurnal temperature ranges. Some spots across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will see overnight drop into the upper 30s Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Near Term through Tonight...

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the region. Breezy southwest winds have allowed temperatures to warm into the 86-89 degree range as of mid-afternoon. With a few more hours of heating, we'll see temps top out in the upper 80s with a few spots breaking 90. We expect the gusty winds to diminish toward sunset. During the evening, we'll see high level cloud cover continue to increase from west to east while temperatures fall back into the 70s. Clouds will continue thicken overnight while a cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. Southwest low-level flow will continue overnight bringing added moisture into the region. As the front approaches, showers will move into southwest Indiana after midnight, mainly between 2-5 AM. Current thinking is that rainfall along/southeast of the Ohio River will hold off until after sunrise on Friday. A tenth to quarter inch of rainfall is expected across southern Indiana overnight. Lows will mainly be in the upper 60s in Indiana with mainly lower 70s across much of Kentucky.

Friday through Saturday Night...

Low amplitude trough axis will trek through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the period. As the trough passes, a surface cold front will slice through the region. Widespread rain showers are expected across the outlook area during the day on Friday and into Friday Night. Model proximity soundings continue show a relatively moist airmass characterized by weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Wind shear through the column also remains very weak. Abundant cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit instability during day. However, there may be localized pockets of instability that develop which may yield a few rumbles of thunder across the region. At this time, the risk of severe weather is very low. Model soundings also show PWATs above 2 inches during the day, so any organized shower activity can put down some locally heavy rainfall. However, the recent dry spell across the region will allow this rainfall to infiltrate and hydrologic issues are not expected. A solid half to one inch of rainfall is expected. Highs on the day will vary depending on where the frontal boundary ends up. Highs on the north side of the front will only reach the upper 60s to around 70. South of the front highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected. Lows Friday night will drop into the lower 50s in Indiana with mid-upper 50s across Kentucky. Our southern KY counties may stay just south of the front and may remain in the low 60s overnight.

For Saturday, upper trough axis will push off to the east while the upper flow becomes more zonal. This will allow the front to push further southward as a wave of low pressure develops along it. Additional rounds of showers are likely for Saturday, mainly in areas south of the WK/BG Parkway. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Some partial clearing may take place Saturday night as lows fall into the upper 40s/lower 50s over southern Indiana with mainly mid-upper 50s across Kentucky.

Sunday through Thursday...

Secondary upper trough axis will push through the region on Sunday and allow the cold front from the weekend to continue to push southward. High pressure will build into the region from the Midwest. For much of next week, the upper flow pattern will feature a ridge across the west with a downstream trough centered near the US east coast. This will keep the Ohio Valley in a northwest to west-northwest flow aloft with seasonal fall temperatures. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will feature highs in the upper 60s to around 70 across southern Indiana and across the northern half of Kentucky. Southern Kentucky will see readings in the lower 70s. We'll see large diurnal swings in temperatures as good radiational cooling is expected for Monday night and Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday/Wednesday morning will likely drop into the upper 30s and the lower 40s with some patchy frost being possible across our northern zones. Temperatures will rebound a bit by Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs warming back into the mid-upper 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the afternoon hours, VFR conditions are expected at the terminals. Winds will be gusty this afternoon with southwest winds of 10-12 knots and gusts of 20-22kts being possible through about 01/22Z. Winds will slacken off toward sunset but will remain out of the southwest while upper level cloud cover creeps into the region from the west. Surface cold front will push toward the area overnight, but showers are not expected to move into the HNB terminal until around 02/06-08Z and then into SDF/BWG by 02/13-14Z and then into LEX/RGA by 02/15-16Z. Cigs look to remain VFR on Friday, but we could drop down into the MVFR range by late afternoon/evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.