textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Well-above normal temperatures continue throughout the upcoming week. A few temperature records may be in jeopardy today, tomorrow, and Friday.

* The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected Thursday. Most likely rainfall amounts range from 0.2-0.5" across the area. The chance for strong storms is relatively low, but cannot be ruled out at this time.

* A stronger cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms again on Saturday. Another low-end threat for strong storms exists with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today and Tonight...

This morning, quiet and mild conditions are present across the Ohio Valley as high clouds from upstream convection pass over the region. There is a fairly notable west-to-east gradient in temperatures and dewpoints this morning as drier low-level air has filtered in over the Cumberland Plateau into east/east central KY this morning. Expect this gradient to hold through mid-morning before daytime heating and moisture advection helps to reduce the temperature and moisture gradient across the region.

Today, the persistent large-scale pattern of southeast US upper ridging and western US troughing is expected to continue, with deep SW flow continuing from the Ohio Valley and points NW. Another breezy and warm day is expected today, with more sunshine allowing temperatures to warm 4-8 degrees above persistence, with highs expected in the mid 80s for most of the area. While we have a 35-45 kt 850mb jet over the region this morning, this should weaken later today, though we still expect SW winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 20-25 mph across the area. For the majority of the area, there is a 90+% chance of dry weather today. However, HREF reflectivity paintballs do show a few showers trying to develop across the Bluegrass later this morning. Additionally, upstream convection over central IL/IN may approach our northern and northeast zones, mainly northeast of a line from Salem, IN to Paris, KY. There is only a 10- 20% chance of a storm in these areas, but if upstream convection was able to provide enough forcing for convective initiation, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 kt of bulk shear could support a conditional strong storm with gusty winds and hail.

Dry weather should continue across the area tonight, with the axis of showers and storms expected to remain well northwest of the region. Lows will be mild again Wednesday morning in the 60s in most locations.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...

Another warm and breezy day is expected on Wednesday with only small changes expected to the overall pattern. A shortwave disturbance over the Rockies today will eject into the Plains by Wednesday afternoon, with more waves of showers and storms expected from the Plains into the Great Lakes. Some erosion of the upper level ridge will begin tomorrow, which could allow successive waves of convection to get closer to our southern IN counties. There is a 20- 30% chance for precipitation along and north of the river Wednesday; however, a lot of the chance that does exist is dependent on upstream convection, so confidence is low.

Otherwise, temperatures should once again rise into the 80s across the area tomorrow. If mid- and high-level clouds are less prevalent than expected, upper 80s would be possible, especially across southern/southeastern KY. Highs should be within 1-3 degrees of daily records.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, additional erosion of the upper ridge should allow showers and storms to approach the area from the west. Current most-likely timing has precipitation arriving west of I-65 around sunrise Thursday, so Wednesday night should remain dry. Near-persistence forecast on low temps is expected, with most areas falling into the 60s Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thursday - Friday Night...

Thursday continues to look like the next good chance for rain across the area as the above-mentioned upper-level shortwave slides across the region. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should move from west to east across southern IN and central KY during the day, with the relatively diffuse forcing likely resulting in multiple waves of precipitation. Machine learning severe convection guidance shows a modest signal (5-15% chance) for strong storms Thursday, and model soundings suggest that ample cloud cover and deep saturation may limit instability. Still, a few strong storms can't be ruled out, with gusty winds and small hail being the main hazards. Ensemble mean rain amounts with Thursday's chance range from a few tenths across Lake Cumberland and the I-75 corridor to around 0.50" in southwest IN/western KY, so it's unlikely that we'll be able to make much of a dent in the drought across south central KY. Temperatures on Thursday should be less warm given the extra clouds and precipitation, with highs generally ranging from 75-80.

Shower/storm chances are expected to diminish from west to east Thursday night as upper ridging builds back into the region from the southwest Friday morning. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather should return on Friday, with highs again forecast in the low-to-mid 80s.

A band of increasing SW flow will nose into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening, with this warm advection wing potentially initiating showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, there is a 20-30% chance for showers/storms west of I-65 Friday night, and some strong upstream convection could spill into the area; however, it is still more likely that we remain dry into early Saturday morning.

Saturday into Early Next Week...

During the day on Saturday, an amplifying upper trough over the Plains will push across the Mississippi Valley, bringing a cold front into the region sometime between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. Saturday should be our last very warm day in this stretch, with highs expected in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s. With the sfc low pressure center ejecting well to the north into the Great Lakes, our chance for showers and storms Saturday should come along and just ahead of the cold front, so FROPA timing will be key to shower/storm chances Saturday into Saturday night. Over the past few model runs, a slightly faster trend has been noted in this system, with the highest precipitation chances (60-70%) now occurring in the afternoon hours. A downward trend in PoPs is now featured after sunset Saturday, with winds swinging around from the SW to the W/NW with cold FROPA.

The severe setup on Saturday is somewhat similar to Thursday in that instability will be less impressive than areas upstream on Friday due to deep saturation and cloud cover, although forcing along the well-defined cold front will be stronger. Machine learning guidance is relatively similar, showing a 5-15% chance for strong storms across the area. Would also expect similar threats as Thursday, with gusty winds and small hail possible in any stronger storms.

Behind the cold front, robust cold advection should send temperatures back to near/slightly-below seasonable levels for Sunday into early next week. Upper troughing is expected to linger across the east coast of the US through early next week, leaving the Ohio Valley under a NW flow pattern. This should bring cool/seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the period Sunday through next Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR weather is ongoing this afternoon with a mix of diurnal cu and upper level clouds. Winds are gusting up to 25kts, but these are expected to subside by this evening. Otherwise, there remains a low chance for a shower or storm to pass by SDF/LEX this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in TAF at this time. Overnight, scattered upper level clouds will continue to stream across the region. A LLJ will be located to our northwest, but could support very brief and marginal LLWS. VFR continues tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.