textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Milder temperatures and windy conditions expected today. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to around 40 mph will be possible.

* A system will move through tonight through Thursday morning, bringing rain initially. Wednesday evening, precipitation will transition to all snow before ending by Thursday morning. Isolated light snow accumulations will be possible.

* Another system looks to move through over the weekend, bringing another chance for accumulating snow and cold temperatures. These cold temperatures will likely stick around into the early part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 252 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Pretty quiet conditions ongoing across the area at this hour with mostly clear skies beneath a few upper clouds. We'll start the morning off with some chilly low temps in the upper 20s and low 30s for most, however expecting a brief milder trend today. This will be our last real shot at some mild temps before we return to a winter like pattern for the rest of the week into the weekend.

We'll be situated between a sub 990 mb surface low across the northern Great Lakes region and surface high pressure across the SE CONUS today. This sets up a pretty strong surface pressure gradient across the area, with a notable 40-50 knot low level jet situated at H85. Luckily, we won't mix that deep today, and in fact, forecast soundings really only show us mixing to around 925 mb or so. Still, expecting 35-40 knots at this layer, and we'll get a good bit of that momentum down to the surface from late morning through late afternoon. BUFKIT soundings suggest that about 80 percent of this momentum will be realized at the surface, which should yield pretty widespread gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Perhaps a few stronger gusts up around 40 mph will be possible for brief periods across our NE CWA, but overall not expecting any values that high to be widespread. Will consider a Special Weather Statement for at least the northern half of the CWA for today.

The gusty SW winds will also help bring in some milder temps with highs expected in the mid to upper 50s for most. We'll have some upper sky cover, but overall don't expect this to hurt "heating" too much for the day.

A surface cold front trailing from the aforementioned surface low will slide through later this evening into tonight. This feature will also be accompanied by a sharp shortwave trough axis where some deeper moisture will pool ahead. The end result will be light rain blossoming around Midnight and after for much of the CWA. Looking for most areas to measure some light QPF values, especially Ohio River southward. However, these values will likely range at a quarter inch or less for most spots. Areas along and south of a Bowling Green to Lexington, KY line will have the best shot at the highest totals around a quarter inch, will probabilities of amounts that high drop off dramatically toward the Ohio River and southern Indiana. The colder air won't coming crashing in until late Wednesday, so do expect precipitation type to stay all liquid through at least early Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 252 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Wednesday - Thursday Evening...

An amplified eastern CONUS trough continues to dig and reinforce over our area through mid week and into the weekend. This will bring reinforcing shots of cold air, along with a couple of rounds of snow showers. The cold will be the bigger story, but can't completely ignore potential for a couple of bouts of light accumulating snow.

Wednesday morning starts off with light rain ahead of the surface cold front and sharp upper trough axis across our south and east CWA. This will gradually end NW to SE through the day, with drier but cooler air taking over. Temps will struggle on Wednesday with steady cold advection allowing for highs in the low and mid 40s before falling off mid to late afternoon. By Wednesday evening into the night, the temperature profile will become supportive of some light snow showers as the combination of steepening low level lapse rates, falling surface temps, and lingering 1000-850 mb moisture combine. Can't rule out a dusting in some spots mainly east of I-65 by Thursday AM. Temps fall pretty hard Wednesday night into the upper teens and low 20s, so perhaps a few slick spots by Thursday AM. Thursday morning wind chills will also be of note with minimum values looking to range from the upper single digits to low teens.

Despite the large parent trough still in place for Thursday, we'll actually get some shortwave ridging and surface high pressure to briefly take hold of the area ahead of the next shortwave trough axis approaching later Thursday night into Friday morning. As a result, sensible weather will feature dry and cold conditions with highs not getting out of the upper 20s and low 30s.

Early Friday - Saturday Night...

The next series of shortwaves looks to rotate into the area early Friday morning through at least Saturday night, bringing more shallow moisture, but cold low level thermal profiles supportive of mostly snow showers. Rounds of scattered to numerous gusty snow showers are a good bet at times early Friday through late Saturday. The exception will be Friday when a brief warm up occurs with warm advection ahead of the Great Lakes surface low. After morning lows in the teens and low 20s on Friday, we'll try to briefly warm above freezing in the afternoon. Then another round of mostly snow showers takes hold for Saturday morning into the Saturday evening as yet another shortwave rotates through the parent trough. This system will bring one last round of wintry precipitation chances, but it will also bring the coldest temperatures in the wake of the final cold front on Saturday. Saturday night lows drop into the low and mid teens with wind minimum chills ranging in the 0 to 10 above range by Sunday morning.

Sunday - Monday...

Cold, but drier conditions take hold for late weekend into early next week. Lows will mostly be in the teens with highs only in the 20s and low 30s each day. Periods of gusty winds will continue, so wind chills remain pretty low each morning in the single digits to lower teens.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 634 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected during most of this forecast period, with waves of scattered high clouds expected to move through the area. SSW winds will remain fairly steady in the 5-10 kt range the first part of the morning. Sfc winds will increase this morning, becoming gusty after 15Z. Peak gusts of 25-30 kt are likely this afternoon. Mid-level ceilings will thicken and steadily lower around 00Z Wed and beyond. Gusts slacken into the evening hours, however increasing sky cover and lowering ceilings will commence ahead of the next weather system for early Wednesday morning. Some low MVFR or even IFR may be possible right at the end of this cycle.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.