textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread rainfall tonight into Wednesday will benefit the ongoing drought. Amounts of 1 to 1.75 inches will be most common, though a few locations (10% chance) may see totals surpass 2.5 inches. The risk of flooding is low.

* The risk for severe weather is low, though brief and localized gusty winds exceeding 40 mph may (20-30% chance) accompany showers tonight into tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

*** Warm and pleasant today ***

Early Tuesday morning, the area is situated between high pressure over the Mid-atlantic and a large, upper-level low pressure system across the Great Plains. Between these two features, a tight surface pressure gradient will favor 10-20 mph winds out of the south- southeast, with a few gusts approaching 30 mph at times late morning through the afternoon mainly near and west of the I-65 corridor. Coupled with morning sunshine, this will warm temperatures into the mid to upper 70s area-wide this afternoon, with a few spots potentially topping 80. The National Blend of Models (NBM) gives the highest chances (30-50%) for 80+ degree highs today south of a roughly Tell City to Berea line. Meanwhile, clouds will increase from west to east during the afternoon as an increasingly moist airmass overspreads the region ahead of the aforementioned Great Plains low.

*** Breezy with beneficial rain tonight into tomorrow ***

A 55-65 kt 850mb LLJ will overspread the local area tonight, strengthening moisture advection and sparking scattered showers after around 10pm EDT. With HREF mean bringing PWAT values into the 1.6-1.75 inch range (95-99th percentile of climatology), a seasonably deep (10-12 kft) warm cloud layer, and cloud-bearing layer winds nearly parallel to the eastward-moving front, the set up will be favorable for some training heavy showers and, hence, swaths of hefty rainfall totals late tonight into tomorrow morning. LPMM places these highest amounts (2-3+ inches) roughly along the I-65 corridor, which is where NBM's probability for more than 2 inches of rainfall is also maximized at 20-40% (highest south of E-town). This should be a beneficial rain for most if not all of the area given ongoing drought conditions, but we can't completely rule out an instance or two of nuisance flooding given (1) most of this rain will fall in a 4-6 hour period, (2) River Forecast Center (RFC) 6- hour Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is around 3 inches, and (3) the antecedent dry conditions may have led to some crusting over of the ground which would increase initial runoff; in addition, urban areas may be more prone to problems if any storm drains are clogged with leaf debris.

While kinematics appear impressive overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with the GFS depicting 45-60 kt (highest west) of 0-6km bulk shear, two things will be working to limit the potential for severe weather: (1) instability will be limited with the HRRR/NAMNest only depicting 200-500 J/kg (elevated) MUCAPE, and (2) forcing will be weakening along the cold front as the low occludes over the Upper Midwest. Still, just enough of this instability may poke into the hail growth zone (HGZ) to spark a lightning strike or two in the stronger cells; but even without robust convective updrafts or lightning, the intense environmental synoptic-scale flow could be transferred to the surface to produce localized strong wind gusts exceeding 40 mph. Since this should be both isolated in nature and tied to showers, a Wind Advisory will not be needed, though a few convective Special Weather Statements (SPSs) may be.

With the cool front's eastward progression slowing down, the rain and locally/sporadically gusty winds will linger into the afternoon tomorrow, perhaps not winding down until after sunset across parts of the Bluegrass. Conditions will turn slightly cooler behind the front, though low level moisture will linger amidst continued cyclonic flow and we may see some drizzle tomorrow evening into tomorrow night.

*** Turning seasonably cool this weekend ***

The next system will have considerably less moisture to work with, and will only bring the area 10-20% chances (highest north) for measurable rainfall during the day on Friday. However, temperatures are currently forecast to turn a bit cooler in its wake. Though confidence remains low on how much we cool down and how long it lasts with the northern stream jet largely remaining north over the Great Lakes, at the very least we can expect some chilly overnight lows given the drier airmass. NBM probabilities for cooler than 36 degree overnight lows are running at 50-70% across the area (except lower chances in urban cores) both Sunday and Monday nights, suggesting we may see frost.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR prevails this afternoon with gusty S winds mostly between 20 and 25 mph. A few gusts up around 30 mph are possible. Do expect to develop few-sct clouds around 5-7K feet through the afternoon, however gusts will likely fall off by late afternoon and early evening.

A strong low level jet up to 50 knots takes hold later tonight, so expect some weak gusts around 20-25 mph to pick up again with the onset of this feature. May have just enough low level stability for some LLWS, so will continue to mention that as well. Scattered rain showers will also start to take hold as the low level jet arrives. As we move through the night shower coverage will increase along with ceilings lowering into the MVFR (low MVFR likely) range. There is a chance at an isolated T-storm so did include mention at BWG. Too low of confidence at the other TAF sites. Low ceilings and steady to occasionally gusty SSW winds will then hold through the remainder of this TAF cycle.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.