textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread light to moderate rain showers tonight through Tuesday night.

* Much cooler and drier air arrives for Thanksgiving and Friday.

* A lot of uncertainty remains around the weekend as the chance for unsettled weather increases.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 431 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tonight, messy zonal flow will push a surface high farther off the East Coast into the Atlantic as it pushes a surface high northeast from the Ozarks. Extending south of the low, an occluded front will approach southern Indiana and central Kentucky. In the southern winds ahead of the front, precipitable water values will peak around 1.25", increasing rain chances during the night. Model sounding show a low level stable dry layer with a deep saturated layer above it. LCLs are expected to be fairly high with nearly no instability. Rain showers are expected to increase throughout the night. Lows will likely range from the upper 40s to the north to mid 50s across southern Kentucky.

Tomorrow morning, the axis of heavier PWATs, around 1.25", will be over the CWA with the heaviest rain east of the CWA by early tomorrow afternoon. Model soundings continue to look very stable with deep layer moisture. Instability continues to be minimal, leading to more rain showers with no severe weather expected. Warm air advection with southerly gusts reaching to around 25 mph will warm highs into the 60s.

Tomorrow evening, rain showers are expected to become more scattered and continue for the rest of the night before finally ending Wednesday morning as a secondary cold front pushes east through the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 431 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

On Wednesday, as a secondary north to south oriented cold front pushes east through the region, westerly winds gusting to 20-25 mph ahead of an approaching surface high will usher in much cooler temperatures. Even under sunny skies, highs only reach into the low 40s to low 50s, and by Thursday and Friday, they only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s before falling into the upper teens Thursday night.

Next weekend remains uncertain as model guidance lacks agreement, but as return flow is expected on the back side of an exiting surface high, warmer temperatures and more moisture is expected to bring a return of precipitation to the CWA sometime during the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

All terminals are VFR this evening except BWG, which is MVFR due to light rain dropping vis. Expect this rain shield to continue to shift north tonight, and should impact all terminals throughout this forecast period. An increasing LLJ will also support several hours of LLWS overnight, with improvements by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect -RA to continue through much of the day, with MVFR cigs and vis. SDF and HNB have the best chance of seeing a period of IFR cigs tomorrow morning before returning to MVFR.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.