textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Milder temperatures and windy conditions expected Tuesday. Widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to around 40 mph will be possible.

* A system will move through Tuesday night through Thursday morning, bringing rain initially. Wednesday evening, precipitation will transition to all snow before ending by Thursday morning. Isolated light snow accumulations will be possible.

* Another system looks to move through over the weekend, bringing another chance for accumulating snow and cold temperatures. These cold temperatures may stick around into the early part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 419 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

This afternoon, the Ohio Valley is on the north side of surface high pressure which extends from southeast TX across the lower Miss. Valley. Anticyclonic flow out of the high has led to SW breezes this afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s across the area.

As we head through the evening and overnight hours, quiet weather will continue across the region, with scattered high clouds passing overhead. Winds should relax a bit after sunset, but it is unlikely that we'll fully decouple overnight as the pressure gradient over the region continues to strengthen. Expect 5-10 mph south winds overnight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s in the colder valleys, while urban/elevated areas should remain in the low 30s.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough will descend out of central Canada toward the Great Lakes, with an associated sfc low descending in a similar fashion. Strengthening SW flow aloft should mix down to the sfc during the late morning and afternoon hours, contributing to windy conditions across the region. While the strongest 850 mb winds are expected to extend from NE KY across OH tomorrow, HREF mean progs show a band of 45-50 kt which will move across the area during the day on Tuesday. Although model soundings show a stout inversion between the boundary layer and this stronger flow aloft, still think we'll be able to realize widespread gusts of 25-35 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours, with some isolated 40 mph gusts possible. Right now, expected gusts are below advisory limits, though an SPS may be needed to highlight impacts from gusty winds. Warmer advection combined with mostly sunny skies during the first half of the day should allow temperatures to warm easily into the 50s Tuesday afternoon, and portions of southern KY will likely approach 60 degrees. Clouds are expected to increase from the north during the later afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 419 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, upper troughing over Hudson Bay is expected to amplify, dropping south across the Great Lakes and into the Midwest. This should send a sfc cold front southward into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning, with rain showers developing ahead of the front Tuesday night. Because of the sharp north-south descent of this system, very little if any Gulf moisture will be able to be accessed, and overall moisture/PWAT values aren't expected to be that anomalous. As a result, total rainfall amounts are expected to be relatively light, with most locations receiving less than 0.25".

As the front drops across southern IN and central KY late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon, winds will swing around from the SW to the NW, with cold advection holding temperatures steady and eventually cooling during the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday. While deeper moisture is expected to clear quickly behind the sfc cold front Wednesday evening, soundings show lingering sfc- 850 mb moisture into Wednesday night. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the post-frontal environment, there is the potential for isolated to scattered snow showers Wednesday evening into Wednesday night before the moisture scours out Thursday morning. While 12Z global guidance isn't particularly bullish on snow accumulations with this system, preliminary hi-res guidance does show the potential for scattered light snow accumulations (around 1/2 inch) in the heavier bursts. If moisture trends more robust and lingers deeper into the post-frontal environment, more substantial snowfall amounts will be possible.

Temperatures would be expected to drop precipitously Wednesday night, with lows at least in the 20s, and possibly the upper teens, Thursday morning.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

Long Range Ensemble Forecast system depicts a fairly persistent longwave troughing signal persisting across the eastern CONUS for the second half of the week, keeping below normal temperatures in the area through the end of the current forecast period. While confidence is high in cold temperatures, confidence in precipitation amounts is lower, with multiple shortwave disturbances expected to swing along the base of the trough during this period. Each of these systems will bring a chance for light wintry precipitation to the area; however, no one wave is likely to bring substantial (1+") snow amounts at this time.

Thursday and Thursday night is expected to be dry, with the first of the series of shortwaves expected to drop into the region Friday morning. From Friday through much of the weekend, intermittent light rain/snow showers and flurries will be possible, with enhancements in coverage expected as shortwaves swing through the area. High temperatures should generally be in the upper 20s and 30s from Thursday through the weekend, with lows in the teens and lower 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 653 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected during the current forecast period, with waves of scattered high clouds expected to move through the area this evening into Tuesday morning. SSW winds will remain fairly steady in the 5-10 kt range overnight into early Tuesday morning. Sfc winds will increase Tue morning, becoming gusty after 15Z. Peak gusts of 25-30 kt are likely Tue afternoon. Mid-level ceilings will thicken and steadily lower around 00Z Wed and beyond.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.