textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry, mild weather continues through Halloween. Expect increasing clouds tonight through Saturday.

* Much needed rainfall is likely on Sunday as a weather disturbance moves through the region.

* Unsettled weather pattern is expected for the middle of next week, with breezy conditions and moderate to heavy rain showers at times Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Friday Afternoon - Saturday Night...

Broad upper level ridging is in place over the Southeast and Ohio Valley this afternoon, with sfc high pressure over Lake Michigan. A weak cold front has pushed into south-central KY, with much drier air (30s/40s dewpoints) to the north of the boundary across north- central KY. Drier low-level air will continue to filter in from the northeast this evening as high pressure builds southeast over the Great Lakes. The weather will remain very pleasant through this evening, with only scattered, thin high clouds. Current temperatures range from the lower 70s in the Bluegrass to the upper 70s/near 80 in southern KY. Temperatures will likely rise at least another degree or two over the next 2-3 hours before steadily falling this evening. Temperatures will drop through the 60s and 50s between 8-10 PM.

After sunset, we'll see increasing high clouds ahead of an upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast out of the southern Plains. High clouds will become overcast on Halloween, but we'll stay dry thanks to much drier air in the lower levels. High pressure will remain anchored over the Appalachians, providing a drying influence. However, we do start to see northward moisture return up the Lower MS Valley on the western periphery of the low-level ridge.

Overall, expect a mostly cloudy Halloween with highs in the 70s. Temperatures will dip into the 60s shortly after sunset. Steady moisture return continues Saturday night ahead of a compact mid/upper level wave. Top-down saturation should be quick enough to yield measurable light rainfall across the SW CWA prior to 12Z Sunday (7 AM EST). Lows Sunday morning are expected to reach the mid 50s.

Sunday - Monday Night...

The compact mid/upper level trough, positioned just downstream of an amplifying ridge over the Plains, will cross the Lower OH Valley on Sunday. Strong low-level ridging will remain anchored over the Mid- Atlantic, and a notable west-to-east moisture gradient is anticipated across KY. A 25-30+ kt SSE LLJ will produce stronger moisture transport up through Middle TN and west-central KY. As such, we still expect higher rainfall amounts along and west of the I-65 corridor through the weekend. Current expected rainfall amounts through the weekend range from less than 0.10" in the Bluegrass to 0.50-0.75" in our SW and west-central KY counties. Drier air to the east should really eat into rainfall amounts, and areas east of I-75 may be lucky to see measurable rainfall.

The upper level shortwave disturbance exits off to the east Sunday night, with an upper level ridge building in on Monday. A deepening upper level trough and sfc low are forecast to develop over the central Plains on Monday. The model trend is for a dry day across central KY and southern IN. We should stay dry through at least Monday night as well, with the Plains system occluding and slowing down.

Tuesday - Friday...

Notably stronger northward moisture transport takes place Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the stacked low pressure system over the Midwest. A band of moderate to heavy rain showers appears possible, and the mostly likely timing is currently late Tuesday night through Wednesday, perhaps lingering into Wednesday night. Breezy southerly winds will also accompany this frontal passage during the midweek time frame. The risk for severe storms looks quite low at this time due to limited instability. It appears the higher risk for strong to severe storms will be down across the Lower MS Valley.

Given the ongoing drought conditions, the risk for significant flooding is low. However, a round of heavier showers could certainly cause some ponding on roads on Wednesday. Drier conditions are anticipated late next week in the wake of the cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. NE winds of 5-10 kts will veer from the east by Saturday morning. FEW-SCT thin high clouds will be present this afternoon, with cloud cover steadily increasing after 00Z Saturday. Expect OVC ceilings near 20 kft on Saturday, with mid-level ceilings expected to gradually lower after 18Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.