textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms arrive later tonight and into Thursday. Best chance for storms tonight will be across southern Indiana with the best chance Thursday being south of I- 64 and east of I-65. At this time, the risk of severe weather is low.

* Temperatures gradually warm up through the weekend. We expect daytime highs mainly in the upper 80s this weekend with upper 80s and lower 90s expected for much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Surface high pressure over the region has been drifting off to the east ahead of a cold front pushing through the region starting tonight. Looking at current conditions outside, cloud cover from an MCS in NW Tennessee is departing to the south, allowing for clearing skies across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Given the current cloud cover, there is also a modest temperature gradient across the region with low to mid 80s where there is mostly clear skies and upper 70s to low 80s where cloud cover still continues. As cloud cover decreases, temperatures across the region will climb into the mid to upper 80s by the late afternoon hours.

A pattern shift begins to take place tonight with the coinciding cold front passage as mid and upper-level troughing digs southward over the region. Prior to the front entering our area, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front over central Indiana. These showers and storms are expected to weaken as they enter the region thanks in part due to the following factors: !) Decreasing instability after sunset (HREF mean SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky at 8 PM EDT to ~500 J/kg by 12 AM EDT); 2) Meager 0-6 km wind shear (15-25 kt) across the region; 3) Antecedent dry air limiting moisture recovery (1.4- 1.5" PW. A strong storm cannot be completely ruled out for places along and north of the Ohio River, with gusty winds being the primary concern. As the night progresses, chances for precipitation will decrease, making for mostly dry conditions after 06z tonight. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The cold front will continue to pass through central and southern Kentucky on Thursday, with dry conditions expected to the north of the front. Increasing instability south of the front will allow for chances of showers and storms in the mid to late afternoon hours, primarily along and south of I-64 and east of I-65. Weaker wind shear and limited moisture will limit the overall coverage and intensity of any showers and storms that do develop. A stronger storm or two is possible, especially in east central Kentucky, with gusty winds again being the main concern. Temperatures across the region will be similar to today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast.

As the cold front departs to the south and east Thursday night, surface high pressure and dry air will fill in over the region. This will begin a stretch of dry conditions that will continue well into the long term forecast period. For temperatures Thursday night, expect lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Friday through Sunday Night...

Upper trough axis will push off to the east on Friday while a secondary weak frontal boundary will drift southward through the region. With a lack of moisture, not expecting any precipitation with this feature. Highs will be in the 83-88 degree range with overnight lows of 60-65. For Saturday and Sunday, High pressure will build into the region while an upper level ridge axis will build into the area from the west. Mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights are expected through the period. Highs on Saturday of 84-89 are expected with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Temperatures will warm a bit more for Sunday. The NBM blend here is too aggressive with highs in the lower 90s. We expect temps to be in the 85-90 range. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60s to near 60.

Monday through Wednesday...

Moving into next week, there remains a strong signal in the guidance for continued dry conditions with increasing temperatures. Aloft, the upper level ridge will dampen with time as a mid-level trough axis works into the Pacific Northwest. Surface high pressure will be off to our east and that will place the region in a favorable warm advection pattern. ECMWF EFI remains strongly suggestive of a warmer than normal pattern compared to climatology. The NBM guidance continues to show its high bias here and is too aggressive with warming temps into the middle 90s. We're likely to see temps Monday and Tuesday warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with mainly lower 90s for highs by Wednesday. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s through the period which will keep heat indices below 100 through the period.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Looking beyond Wednesday, the long term ensembles and AI Ensemble guidance suggest the upper level pattern will undergo some changes. The upper level ridge that is expected to bring dry/warm weather for much of the week is expected to break down as a series of mid-level waves push across the CONUS. While the details are not overly clear, it does look like that we'll have some passing upper troughs that will drive some cold frontal boundaries through the region. While much of next week will feature above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, we expect temps to come down a bit to near normal with precipitation going up to normal or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Showers and storms will develop in central Indiana this evening, moving southward towards HNB and SDF. These will weaken as they move closer to the region, so a Prob30 for SHRA was kept in the HNB TAF. A few showers could occur at SDF, but confidence was too low to include in their TAF. A front will move through the area late tonight through Thursday afternoon, with winds shifting from the SSW to the NNW after 12z Thursday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.