textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Late tonight into Wednesday morning, a clipper system drops into the region, bringing light snow showers before transitioning to rain.

* Thursday, northwest flow brings another shot of light showers for some.

* Temperatures warm everyday before reaching into the 70s and 80s by the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1035 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Expecting cold and quiet for much of the night as temperatures fall well into the 20s in most locations. Mid and upper sky cover will continue to increase through the night with a weak warm front setting up just to our west toward dawn on Wednesday. Could get some light precipitation falling out of a mid deck in the pre-dawn hours through late morning across the area. Across the northern half of the CWA, the column should support light snow for any precipitation hitting the ground as surface temps should be mostly in the upper 20s. However, temps do start to warm by mid to late morning, and any lingering light precipitation should be in the form of sprinkles or very light rain into the afternoon.

Do think we could get a dusting of snow in a few spots in areas where the dry low level air is briefly overcome with snow, so decided to put out a Special Weather Statement for a few slick spots possible during the Wednesday morning commute. Don't think we'll see anything to the degree we saw yesterday morning, but perhaps a few slick spots are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 431 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Currently, satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies over the southwestern part of the CWA while increasing clouds to the east and north. This corresponds with temperatures being warmer in the southwest and cooling towards the northeast, where temperatures remain below freezing. The axis of the strongly amplified upper trough in now east of Kentucky with northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley and surface high pressure moving east into southern Indiana and central Kentucky.

Tonight, the surface low pushes northeast through the Tennessee valley, backing winds towards the south, but the high will cause winds to ease near calm. The nearly stationary upper trough will carry a shortwave towards the CWA. This will bring another round of snow to the region.

Looking at model data, the system arrives with its own moisture with a dry layer remaining at the surface. The DGZ is expected to be higher than Tuesday morning's event, around 550-600 mb, in the deeply saturated column. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and cool sounding profiles, snow is expected to make its way into the CWA after midnight

Wednesday morning, with warm air advecting into the CWA, temperatures begin warming above freezing causing a rain snow mix to develop across southern Kentucky. This mix/changeover will continue northward over the CWA, into the late morning hours before sprinkles/rain exits our eastern counties during the afternoon. With the shortwave exiting, skies will begin clearing from the west. Highs return to the mid 40s to upper 50s with cooler temperatures to the northeast and warmer to the southwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 431 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Thursday, another quick moving wave flowing over the upper ridge will quickly slide into the CWA ahead of a surface low, bringing additional showers to at least some. Chances increase to around 30 percent to the northeast from Madison, Indiana through the Bluegrass. Total amounts are expected to be limited with a dry layer and no convective weather in the area. WAA under afternoon clearing skies will continue to lift highs into 60s, and by Friday, the mid 70s return across southern Kentucky with some mid to upper 60s remaining across the northern parts of the CWA.

Into the weekend, a west to east oriented cold front is expected to drop south through the Lower Ohio Valley. This could bring some additional chances for light precipitation, but model guidance remains varied on timing, ranging from Friday evening into Saturday morning. Currently, the bulk of the rainfall is expected to remain well east of the region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday before another cold front following the same path reaches the area Sunday night or Monday, dropping highs back into the mid 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 809 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with steady WSW winds dropping off to a light SE wind overnight. Mid and upper sky cover will steadily overspread the region. As we move into the pre-dawn and late morning hours lower ceilings down around 5 K feet will settle in, along with some light snow potential or flurries at the northern TAF sites. Any very light precipitation should end by late morning with skies gradually clearing into the afternoon. Look for a gusty SSW wind between 20 and 25 mph through the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.