textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chances for areas of patchy dense fog continue through early Monday morning.

* Mostly dry weather is expected north of the Bluegrass Parkway Monday, with scattered showers and isolated storms possible for places south.

* Episodic bouts of showers/storms are expected to continue through most of this week. Localized excessive rainfall may result in flooding in some areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

A weak cold front continues to slowly drift southward across the Commonwealth, with current expectation of it becoming nearly stationary over southern Kentucky by Monday afternoon. Additionally, observations are showing areas of fog developing across the area. This should only last for a few more hours before conditions quickly improve after sunrise this morning. The highest HREF probabilities of visibility less than 1/2 mile are around 60% east of I-65 and north of the Cumberland Parkway, with lower probabilities for the rest of the CWA.

With the front draped over Kentucky, the coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will be mostly limited to areas south of the Bluegrass Parkway. Accumulations will be fairly light, with HREF probabilities for rainfall greater than 0.25" only getting up to 60% in our far southeastern counties near the Tennessee border. Temperatures will be just below normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s forecast.

Monday night into Tuesday, the frontal boundary will begin to slowly drift northward over Kentucky as southerly flow aided by an Atlantic ridge carries rich moisture northward into our region. Additionally, multiple perturbations from the gulf states trek towards us, acting as a forcing mechanism for additional showers and storms to develop. With HREF showing PW values over 1.8" (>98th percentile climatologically), more widespread showers and isolated to scattered storms are expected across the area. Temperatures will be similar to Monday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

As the frontal boundary continues to drift northward, coverage for showers will increase throughout the entire CWA. With southerly flow still in place, LREF shows PW values exceeding 1.7" through Wednesday. Diurnal heating will allow for some scattered storms to develop during the afternoon, though a limited wind shear profile will keep our chances for severe weather to be near-zero. Given the persistent cloud cover from the showers and storms, temperatures will continue to struggle to get above 80, though some places in our far southern counties could get there.

Wednesday Night into the Weekend...

The pattern begins to shift Wednesday night as upper-level troughing over eastern Canada digs southward towards the Ohio Valley. Additionally, upper-level ridging builds in, with an axis extending from the central CONUS to the southeast. A cold front moves over the region late Thursday, pushing the main area of moisture out of the region just to our south and west. While a few showers and storms are possible Thursday, the highest chances will be south of the BG Parkway. The moisture axis will fluctuate some Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge shifts slowly to the east. Another cold front will push through the area late Saturday into Sunday, that could set up another period of drier weather to close the weekend. Once the initial cold front on Thursday moves through, temperatures will hover in the mid-to-upper 70s range to close out the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Variable cigs will continue tonight as a weak cold front moves through the area. Given the recent rainfall we've experienced, in addition to calm winds, the potential for fog continues to be favorable tonight, especially for LEX and RGA. Slightly lower vis was given for SDF, BWG, and HNB, with IFR cigs included in tempo groups for LEX and RGA. Visibilities will quickly improve after sunrise, though MVFR ceilings will remain through the remainder of the morning before improving to VFR in the early afternoon. For the remainder of the TAF period, VFR cigs and relatively light winds will prevail.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.