textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold front brings a chance of scattered showers and possible thunderstorms late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Low probability of thunderstorms with little to no severe weather expected.

* Warming pattern returns for the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures nearing 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Sfc high pressure currently centered over the UP of MI will be the main influence of our weather through the short term. While we may have a few scattered mid-level Cu this afternoon, clouds will dissipate with the setting sun providing clear skies overnight. Factor in lighter winds with the clear skies and we should see radiational cooling allowing for lows to fall into the 40s.

Sfc high pressure will work eastward tomorrow shifting sfc winds more out of the southwest and warming temperatures from the low 70s today into the upper 70s to near 80 tomorrow. Behind the departing sfc high, a sfc low associated with a shortwave trough will approach from the northwest. While we may get a few high clouds to increase towards the late afternoon, the day will be mostly sunny.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night

Our next chance for possible showers and even a few thunderstorms arrive late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough tracking over the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday night, will push a sfc low and its associated cold front through the Ohio Valley. Limited moisture ahead of the boundary will allow for scattered showers and the chance for some isolated thunderstorms to form as this system approaches from the northwest. Timing of showers/storms seems to be a little later than was mentioned in the previous discussion with timing looking to be closer to daybreak Wednesday.

Given the timing of this system and looking at model soundings instability will be limited if non existent. This will limit the probability of thunderstorms. Currently, the probability of seeing thunderstorms is around 10 percent with little to no severe weather expected.

Cold front will be positioned right along the WKY and BG parkways by Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how well temperatures warm during the afternoon, there could be some afternoon showers and storms for the southern half of our CWA Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the front continues to move to the south. Winds could gust to between 20-25 mph in the afternoon behind the front with temperatures a bit cooler in the mid 70s. By Wednesday night, skies are expected to clear with lows back into the low/mid 40s.

End of Week into the Weekend

High pressure will build in over the region for Thursday and Friday. This will be mainly dry with temperatures cool on Thursday in the upper 60s to near 70 but start to warm into the mid/upper 70s to near 80 by Friday. The warmer Friday temperatures are a result of ridging developing over the area on Friday then flattening out by the weekend. As the upper pattern flattens out Friday night, a shortwave trough will pass to the north across the Great Lakes. PoPs look to be around 30-40% Friday night into Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend there will be slight chance for showers and storms and it we continue to see a trend in the models for a significant warm-up. Highs will warm to near and into the 90s for the weekend with lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Sfc high pressure over the UP of MI will keep VFR flight categories through the forecast period. Winds will remain generally light and while there will be FEW to SCT mid-level Cu this afternoon, skies will be clear overnight into tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.