textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Patchy frost is possible in sheltered valleys early this morning. In addition, some patchy dense river valley fog is also possible.

* High confidence (near 100% chance) in dry weather all week. Ongoing drought conditions, most pronounced over southern Kentucky, will worsen in response.

* Pleasant Fall weather will continue this week with warm afternoons (upper 60s to mid 70s) and crisp mornings (upper 30s to mid 40s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Conditions are calm and cool early this morning in central KY and southern IN. Temperatures are running mostly in the 40s, though the coolest KY Mesonet stations (Meade, Harrison, and Cumberland counties) have settled into the upper 30s. Some patchy frost remains possible in the coolest low-lying areas through sunrise.

Fog has been slow to develop this morning after dry air mixdown lowered dewpoints into the mid and upper 30s in many areas yesterday afternoon. However, the latest satellite imagery does reveal a gradual expansion of fog in the river valleys. Patchy dense fog will be possible in the typical fog-prone areas during the morning commute. Otherwise, another spectacular Fall day is on tap. We'll see a few more high clouds, particularly over west-central and south- central KY this morning into early afternoon. After the crisp start, temperatures will rebound into the lower 70s this afternoon.

Through the rest of this week, an amplifying upper level ridge over the central CONUS will help keep active weather confined to the western US and Canada. High pressure at the surface generally remains in place off to our north through the weekend, helping to maintain generally light NE flow and a dry airmass. Expect several days of pleasant weather, with highs in the low to mid 70s and morning lows in the 40s. Forecast confidence remains high in dry weather through at least Monday.

===== Worsening Drought Conditions ====

While the beautiful fall weather will be nice to have, it does come with a catch. This prolonged dry period could worsen drought conditions for our area. Almost our entire forecast area is now experiencing at least abnormally dry (D0) conditions, with south- central KY even worse with moderate drought (D1). Since Sept 1, Louisville (SDF) and Lexington are both running more than 2.7" below normal rainfall for this time frame. Bowling Green is only behind 0.70" since Sept 1, but the bigger picture shows they are 5.37" below normal rainfall since the start of 2026. With no rainfall expected in the next seven days, drought conditions are likely to worsen.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions expected. A patch of BKN cirrus will spread over the area this morning into early afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the northeast through the period, increasing to around 5-7 kts this afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.