textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather with near normal to slightly above temperatures through the end of the week.

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US this weekend, with moderate to heavy rainfall over central and southern Kentucky. 0.75-1.50 inches of rain is expected during this time.

* Drier conditions and a warming trend for the beginning of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Surface high pressure keeping the area dry today. With the associated clockwise rotation, NE areas will see high temperatures only in the low to mid 40s, while areas further SW will be at or just above 50 degrees. Incoming cloud cover from a mid level shortwave trough has helped keep temps cool during the day, though these clouds will move southeast and dissipate overnight. With clear skies overnight enforced by ridging from the west, temperatures will dip below freezing ranging from mid 20s NE to low 30s SW. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out, though dry air settling into the area with this ridge should keep any fog formation limited to isolated locations in valleys usually affected by fog.

Tomorrow morning, the ridge moving in will cause a southwesterly surface wind, boosting temperatures with low 50s north and east to upper 50s in the far south. This ridge will be enhanced by an upper level low swinging in from the southern Rockies, making skies clear and keeping winds light. Calm and pleasant conditions will persist through Friday evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 303 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

===== Friday Night =====

Quiet weather will continue for Friday night under NW flow aloft and a departing sfc high to the east. While we remain dry, will be keeping eyes on a deepening upper trough over the southwestern US that will bring our next rain chances over the weekend. Temps will fall into the low 30s Friday night.

===== Saturday - Sunday =====

Majority of Saturday will be dry as sfc high pressure settles over the Carolina Coast. However, clouds will steadily increase through the day as low-level WAA ramps, leading to temps in the mid-50s for most, but can't rule out some low 60s across our far south.

By Saturday afternoon and evening, we could begin to see some light radar returns enter from the west, though low level dry air will delay onset of measurable precip chances. Eventually by Saturday night, the LLJ strengthens ahead of the sfc low over the Deep South, amplifying the moisture transport fetch from the Gulf. However, some uncertainty remain just how far north that moisture fetch will reach. Regardless, the best forcing and moisture content will be to our south, but there is good confidence in seeing rain this weekend. Rain chances peak overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model soundings do support some high shear given the LLJ, but being overnight, there is no instability present with these moderate showers. Precip will exit west to east through the day on Sunday, with drier weather returning by Sunday late afternoon and evening.

Expected rainfall amounts have remained rather consistent since the morning package, with the southern half of the forecast area most likely to pick up more than an inch of rain. Best chances for seeing under an inch will be north of the I-64 corridor. Due to the recent snow melt, this round of rain will bring a marginal risk for excessive rainfall per WPC. Additionally, we will likely need to see at least 2 inches of rain for rivers to rise to minor flood stages. Probs of river flooding are low, but still expect to see rivers rise given how saturated our grounds are now.

Temps remain mild during the weekend, and above freezing, so no chances for messy p-types with this system. Temps Saturday night into Sunday are forecast to drop into the 40s, and recover to the 50s on Sunday.

===== Next Week =====

Expansive sfc high pressure moves in for the first part of next week, which will influence dry weather for Monday-Tuesday. Highs for these days are expected to reach the 60s. Following our weekend rain chances, our next round of precip will arrive sometime in the middle of next week, with the best chances across our north. There some opportunity that some locations in south-central KY could be near 70 degrees on Wednesday, but this confidence remains low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 612 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Other than high cloud cover streaming across the region, VFR conditions are expected across the area during the upcoming TAF period. Light east-northeast winds will be seen this evening with winds falling off overnight. We'll gradually see cloud cover moving out of the region during the day on Friday with winds swinging around to the southeast.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.