textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Mainly dry and unseasonably warm through the end of the week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal (upper 70s to low 80s)

* The next chance for showers and storms is expected Friday into early Saturday. There is a low, but non-zero chance for strong storms west of I-65 Friday afternoon and evening.

* There is increasing potential for a strong storm system to impact the region next Monday into Monday night. An elevated risk for severe storms exists with this system, though confidence in details remains low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An upper level ridge will move into the region, bringing an area of high pressure and clear skies. Today's max temperatures will near 80 degrees with mid 30 RH values across the forecast area. Winds are primarily out of the SW with gust 20-25mph due to good mixing this afternoon. Tonight winds will become nearly calm with clear skies. This will allow the min temperatures to cool into the mid to low 50s overnight. Another dry and warm day in store for tomorrow as we stay under a region of high pressure ahead of a cold front. Mostly clear skies will allow the max temperatures for Thursday to warm into the low 80s. Min RH values tomorrow will remain in the mid 30s heading into Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Upper-level ridging is expected over the Ohio Valley Thursday night, with a broad upper trough extending from the Canadian Prairies down into the lee of the US Rockies. Immediately downstream of the upper trough, a cold front is expected to extend from the southern Plains up into the upper Midwest, with this system expected to bring the next chance of showers and storms to the Ohio Valley on Friday. For Thursday night, dry weather should continue across the area with a steady light south wind keeping temperatures relatively mild overnight. Most locations should see low temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s, though a few of our east central and southeast KY valley locations may fall into the upper 40s and low 50s.

During the day on Friday, the heart of the upper low is expected to remain fairly stationary over southern SK. However, on the southeast fringe up the upper low, a shortwave should eject across the mid- Mississippi Valley, with the sfc cold front gradually pushing toward our area Friday afternoon and evening. Waves of showers and thunderstorms should approach the area during the day on Friday, and as convection approaches the area, it should encounter an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic profile with eastward extent as a result of residual low-level dry air. There should be some increase in sfc dewpoints from from west to east later Friday that could allow for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and west of I-65, so it is possible that some robust storms could make it into our western counties later in the day on Friday. The main hazard in any stronger storm should be gusty winds, but overall, think that it is a marginal setup for severe weather across southern IN and central KY. In total, median rainfall totals Friday into Saturday morning range from 0.25-0.50" across the area, though the higher (60%+) probabilities of greater than 0.25" are along and west of I-65.

This Weekend...

Another weak mid-level perturbation riding above the sfc front may result in lingering rain chances Saturday morning along and east of I-65; otherwise, a mostly dry weekend is favored across the area as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes. While we should see cold FROPA Saturday morning, the relatively weak cold advection behind the front should cause temperatures to drop only slightly over the weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday should range from the mid 70s to the low 80s, with lows over the weekend generally in the 50s.

Monday - Monday Night...

Over the weekend, a piece of cutoff upper energy will eject onto the California coast and begin to interact with the broader upper low/troughing across the western half of North America. By Sunday night into Monday, this energy should eject across the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley as a shortwave, with sfc cyclogenesis expected to take place immediately ahead of this disturbance. While there is still some spread in timing and evolution of this system, the general consensus features a sfc low tracking across the mid- Mississippi Valley and into the lower Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, with a sfc cold front pushing across central KY and southern IN. With the warm sector of the sfc cyclone expected to overspread the lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening, there should be a relatively plentiful source of instability, with the axis of highest sfc dewpoints expected to extend from western KY and points to the south. The H5 jet core is currently progged to eject from MO across southern IL and into central IN, placing our area adjacent to (if not within) fairly strong upper-level divergence and forcing for low-to-mid level ascent.

Along and ahead of the sfc cold front, thunderstorms should develop and move across the region sometime Monday into Monday night. The overall setup is relatively favorable for organized strong to severe storms in the vicinity of the lower OH valley, with more uncertainty as you go east of I-65 where moisture/instability may not be quite as plentiful. Extended range AI/ML severe convection guidance has remained fairly steady showing the highest probabilities for severe weather Monday into Monday night across western KY, with significant probabilities bleeding into central KY and southern IN from the southwest. This remains a period that we'll have to watch over the next few days, and changes in the forecast evolution of this system are likely until better sampling of the upper-level energy occurs this weekend.

Later Next Week...

Behind the Monday-Monday night system, drier weather is likely for next Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with temperatures remaining relatively mild. There has been a fairly consistent signal for another system with potentially heavier rainfall amounts next Thursday into Friday, followed by a cool down for the first weekend of May. While we're still a ways out from either of these systems, we'll continue to monitor as another chance for strong storms could come with the late week system next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire TAF period. Very light SW winds are ongoing and will continue to be light or calm until sunrise with clear skies. With morning to afternoon sun, SW winds will increase with gusts ranging 15-25 kts Thursday afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear with high level clouds moving in late in the afternoon/evening with possible cumulus forming then as well. Beyond 06Z on the 24th, low-level wind shear will approach and weaken from the west, though there is still uncertainty how far west this advances. For now, this was excluded from the current TAF. VFR conditions continue into Friday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.