textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated storms possible this afternoon west of I-65 (10-20% chance).

* Strong cold front will push across the region on Saturday bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region. There is a low risk of strong storms with this system. Rain showers will continue into Saturday evening.

* Much cooler and drier weather will return to the region for Sunday and into early next week. Frost is likely across southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions are dry and warm this afternoon with current temperatures around 80 degrees. Upper level ridging is building east across the Ohio Valley downstream of a deep upper level trough over the High Plains and Rockies. A weak sfc boundary and low-level moisture gradient is draped NNW to SSE through west-central KY. This moisture gradient continues to creep eastward, and we'll continue to see SCT- BKN cumulus this afternoon over the western half of the forecast area. Convergence and lift along this boundary is very weak, so mainly dry conditions are likely to continue. There is just a slight chance (20%) for a rogue shower through early evening west of I-65. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 80s for the mid to late afternoon hours.

Tonight...

The mid/upper level trough is forecast to swing ENE across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a deepening low will lift northeast from the Upper Midwest across Ontario, dragging a long cold front southeast through the Midwest and Mid-MS Valley. A band of deep convection just ahead of the cold front will develop southeast across the Midwest, weakening as it pushes into the Lower OH Valley early Saturday morning.

The first half of the night looks dry and partly cloudy. Expect thickening cloud cover with increasing rain chances across southern Indiana during the early morning hours. There is a 20-30% chance for embedded thunderstorms across the northwestern CWA as weakening convection attempts to push in from the northwest during the pre- dawn hours. Instability will be weak (and decreasing) and elevated, so the severe thunderstorm risk is low. Lows will range from the low/mid 60s in southern IN to the mid/upper 60s in central KY.

Saturday...

Numerous rain showers will move through the region on Saturday as the cold front pushes southeast through southern IN and central KY. Temperatures will attempt to warm through the 70s ahead of the cold frontal passage, but abundant cloud cover and precip coverage will limit diurnal warming and destabilization. This will keep the severe thunderstorm potential fairly low (5% risk for damaging wind east of I-65). The eastern CWA, specifically the I-75 corridor, will likely see a bit more heating with temps possibly approaching 80 prior to the cold front's arrival.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, and any briefly stronger thunderstorm could produce locally strong to severe wind gusts. Again, this risk is mainly confined to the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Areas further north and west may only see isolated thunderstorm potential from mid-morning through mid- afternoon.

The cold front looks to sweep through the Louisville Metro between 2- 4 PM EDT, with winds veering northwesterly behind the front. Expect showery weather and falling temperatures through the evening hours in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures are forecast to drop through the 50s Saturday evening, perhaps into the upper 40s by Midnight. Post-frontal rain showers are most likely to taper off by 10-11 PM EDT

Saturday Night...

Rain showers will gradually taper off from NW to SE in central KY Saturday night. NW flow will continue to advect cooler air into the region. It does look like we'll get enough drier air moving in to start to scour out the low clouds by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s by daybreak Monday, so plan on a chilly commute to work and school.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

With the cold front well off to our east by Sunday morning, temperatures will be rather chilly to start the day. Lows are currently forecast to be in the upper 30s/low 40s, with highs only getting into the upper 50s/low 60s. Surface high pressure building in will set us up for a dry stretch of weather to close the weekend and start the week, but will result in another cold night leading into Monday morning. Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s will make for possible (~30% chance) areas of frost north of I-64.

From Monday through Thursday, the forecast remains mostly dry, with the exception of a cold front sagging over the area on Wednesday that could provide a round of rainfall. LREF guidance currently give us less than a 25% chance for accumulation greater than 0.10", so any rainfall we get is currently expected to be light. Temperatures will also gradually warm during the week, with afternoon highs on Monday in the low-to-mid 60s climbing into the low-to-mid 80s by Thursday. The next chance for widespread rainfall and potential thunderstorms will come at the end of the forecast period next Friday as a cold front passes through the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 157 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A band of SCT-BKN clouds near 5-6 kft is noted along and just west of the I-65 corridor this afternoon. These clouds have developed along a weak sfc boundary/moisture gradient. A few isolated showers will be possible west of I-65 through early evening, but the TAF sites should stay dry.

VFR conditions continue overnight with 5-10 kt southerly flow. Conditions will deteriorate on Saturday with a cold front sweeping through the region. Ceilings will lower Saturday morning into the afternoon with rain showers spreading in from the northwest. Low-end MVFR ceilings (1500 FT) are likely, and brief IFR ceilings are possible. However, confidence is lower at this time on the extent and timing/duration of IFR conditions. Sfc winds will veer NW behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening and become gusty for a short period of time.

TSRA is lower confidence on Saturday. Isolated to scattered storms are possible, mainly from late morning through the afternoon hours. However, confidence is fairly low on thunderstorm coverage at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.