textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Major ice accumulations and impacts expected across portions of southern and eastern Kentucky.

* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through early Monday morning for a significant winter storm.

* Brutally cold temperatures continue for at least the next 5-7 days. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Sunday night until Tuesday morning. This may need to be upgraded to and Extreme Cold Warning for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 951 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Quite the contrast in airmasses across the CWA at this hour with snow continuing across our northern CWA, sleet across far southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, freezing rain across central and southern KY, and now just plain rain mixing in across southern KY as well. Current KY Mesonet obs tell the tale quite well with a sharp contrast in depth of the arctic airmass along and north of a Morgantown, to Bardstown, to Frankfort line. South of this line temperatures have warmed up to around freezing where the warm nose is most prominent, however freezing rain is likely still accumulating on the direct cold surfaces.

The warm nose should start to collapse from late morning through the early afternoon as the H85 low passes to our NE, and cold advection through the low levels starts to crash the column again. As a result, we'll see p-type change back over to snow for everyone to end the event. Expecting between 1 to 3 inches of additional snow and sleet accumulation from along and north of the Parkways up to around the i-64 corridor. North of I-64, 2 to 4 inches of additional snow are still possible. South of the Parkways, expect a half an inch or less of additional accum through this evening with precipitation shuts down.

Power outages across southern, central, and eastern Kentucky have climbed to near 50,000 at this hour, with the number nearly doubling over the past 3 hours. Perhaps a little relief will come in the form of surface temps rising a bit above freezing this morning into early afternoon, but overall pretty significant icing event ongoing at this hour. Stay safe everyone.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 418 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

The low level jet, ahead of the 850mb low, continues to cause precipitation type issues throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Dual-pol radar shows the melting line stretching from southern Henry County southwest through southern Jefferson County and continuing through northern Meade County. This melting line has been fairly stationary but has meandered some. Along the melting line, sleet is falling with areas farther southeast of the line seeing freezing rain. We can also see heavy precipitation causing melting across our top row of Indiana counties. As we have already seen, this high reflectivity transitions to heavy snow as the colder air wins out. These counties are on track to see several more inches of snow. Areas south of the melting line running through Jefferson County will likely see limited new snowfall amounts as sleet cuts into snow totals.

Along and southeast of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, ice accumulations are expected to cause major issues as a glaze up to around three-quarters of an inch of ice is expected. If these totals are realized, expect downed trees and power lines, and traveling on roadways will become nearly impossible.

Today, as the 850mb low, currently nearing the southern tip of Illinois, continues to move northeast towards southern Indiana, the warm low level jet/warm nose will get pushed to the east. This will cause the transition line to move east, changing some areas along the line back to snow around midday and though the afternoon hours as the system moves east. Today's highs will range from the upper teens in southern Indiana to near 40 in Clinton County.

With some of the southeastern Kentucky counties reaching near freezing this morning, some melting and rain will be observed, but with cold surface temperatures and ice already in place, expect continued slick and hazardous conditions.

Tonight, the bulk of the precipitation will move out of the CWA. Continued cold air advection is expected to drop temperatures down to a cold -6 to around 11 degrees. Northwest winds will lower wind chills to around -14 to 4 degrees as skies begin to clear from the northwest.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 418 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

An extended period of well below normal temperatures is expected over the next 7-10 days as upper-level troughing remains fixed over the eastern half of North America. For Monday and Tuesday, dry conditions are expected with clearing skies on Monday and mostly sunny skies continuing for the day on Tuesday. Brutally cold temperatures and wind chills will be the main focus during the early week period, with lows Monday night likely falling below zero across much of central KY and especially southern IN. Some locations may approach -10 degrees for air temperatures, with minimum wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning expected to range from -5 to -20 across the area. It is fairly likely that at least a portion of the current cold weather advisory will need to be upgraded to an extreme cold warning.

For the second half of the week into next weekend, a series of shortwaves will rotate around the center of the longwave trough axis over the eastern third of North America, bringing a series of NW flow/clipper systems across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Each of these systems will bring at least increased cloud coverage and a reinforcing shot of cold air as they cross the region; however, there will be opportunities for light snowfall if these systems can carry enough moisture with them. Ensembles do show quite a good percentage of members having light (<0.10") QPF with a clipper system Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, with a secondary signal Thursday night into Friday. Given limited moisture, not expecting major winter storms with any of these systems, but a few shots at an inch or so of snow are possible given expected 20- 25:1 snow-liquid ratios.

Very cold temperatures are expected to persist into next weekend, and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is less than -0.9 through the next 7 days, indicating high confidence in unusually cold temperatures. It may be early-to-middle portions of the following week (February 2nd-4th) before temperatures begin to moderate across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 701 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Not much has changed in the forecast. It's still messy. The winter storm continues to bring several different p-types to area TAF sites. BWG, LEX, and RGA can expect more freezing rain with sleet at times. This line of changeover remains near SDF. All snow is expected at HNB. Expect low ceilings as visibilities bounce depending on P-type and intensity.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Tuesday for KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092.