textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. A few storms may become strong. Main threats will be gusty winds and small hail.

* Milder conditions are forecasted for Sunday through Tuesday morning. Low temperatures dip into the low 60s.

* Chances for showers and storms increase mid next week as a warm front pushes north into the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 827 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This morning, areas of dense fog are beginning to dissipate, with the greatest coverage of fog lingering along and south of the Kentucky Parkways. As daytime heating continues, fog will continue to mix out over the next hour to 90 minutes. Along the KY/TN border, scattered rain showers are lingering this morning, with most of the showers remaining on the TN side. Have increased PoPs to slight chance coverage (20-30%) over the next few hours in Monroe, Cumberland, and Clinton County to account for the ongoing activity.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. High pressure sinking into the Ohio Valley should keep most areas outside of Lake Cumberland dry today. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s for highs this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Clear skies and light winds this morning has allowed for dense valley fog to develop. This is expected to expand through the remainder of the overnight period. An SPS has been issued for fog through 1230Z (830am ET).

Deep troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS as ridging continues to build over the western CONUS. These features will keep northwestern flow aloft over the lower Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry for today. A surface stationary front over Tennessee may help a few showers and storms to develop near the Lake Cumberland region this afternoon.

Overnight tonight into Saturday, a shortwave trough will swing through the region. This will bring decaying showers along the cold front in the early morning hours Saturday over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. The upper trough and cold front will push into the eastern half of the region in the afternoon. With daytime heating, this will allow enough instability and lift to develop showers and a few storms. Weak shear may allow for a storm or two to become strong, bringing a marginal threat for gusty winds and small hail. Main threat area will be the Bluegrass and northeastern portions of the CWA in the afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Behind the cold front, we will see drier and cooler weather. Lows Sunday morning through Tuesday morning are forecasted to be in the low 60s, which is about 6-9 degrees below normal for this time of year. Expecting to see overall drier conditions, though a few showers and storms will be possible as vorticity streams along northwesterly flow aloft.

Moving into mid next week, a weak surface low pressure is expected to develop over the central Plains and a warm front will lift north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This will increase moisture and lift over the region, bringing increased chances for showers and storms. At the same time, upper ridging will broaden into the mid- Mississippi Valley and increase temperatures back to normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Clear skies and light winds has allowed for valley fog to develop over the region. Fog will thin by mid-morning. Low level moisture will allow BKN Cu from 3500-5000ft this afternoon. 4-7kt winds will shift from the northeast to the northwest in the afternoon. As the sun sets this evening, winds will become calm to light.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.