textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms come to an end tonight.

* Dry and sunny for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 60s Sunday and 70s Monday.

* Warm during the middle of next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday night. Cooler air arrives late next week behind a cold front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 341 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

This afternoon a northeast to southwest line of broken convection continues to move east across the eastern part of the CWA in central and eastern Kentucky. So far in southern Indiana and central Kentucky, this line has produced wind gusts below 40 mph, but one gust of 53 mph was observed at Fort Campbell in western Kentucky and there was an observed 41 mph gust at the Madison County Kentucky Mesonet site in gradient wind ahead of the convection. In many places the gradient winds ahead of the line have been stronger than that produced by the convection. Just behind the line, winds are becoming more light and variable.

Low level lapse rates remain fairly stable around 6-6.5 C/km just ahead of the line with better instability remaining where there is more sunshine over eastern Kentucky. Discrete cells ahead of the line have also helped to add additional cloud cover, reinforcing the relatively stable environment. This morning low level wind shear was more concerning, but that too has weakened over the CWA.

For the rest of the afternoon, the line of convection will continue moving east into and across eastern Kentucky. Expecting the lines strength the remain about the same. Behind the line of convection, stratiform showers will continue before pushing east of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions early tonight. This will be followed by a dry period before a broken line of showers is expected to move through with the cold front.

Through tonight, ahead of the cold front, winds recover to a southwest direction before veering towards the northwest with the passage of the front. This will advect cooler air into the region, dropping temperatures into the low 40s over southern Indiana to the low 50s near Clinton County.

Tomorrow, as we sit near the axis of a weakly amplified upper trough, a shortwave helps clear skies from the northwest, and by the early afternoon, skies should be clear over the whole CWA. At the same time, a surface high gets pushed east from the Ozarks to eastern Kentucky, cutting off CAA as winds back towards the south throughout the day. Under sunny skies, highs climb into the 60s.

Sunday night into Monday, mostly zonal flow rotates from west- northwest to west-southwest over the Lower Ohio Valley while high pressure remains at the surface. This will keep skies clear with WAA lifting temperatures into the 70s Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 341 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Monday night, persistent southwesterly flow at the low-levels and a few weak perturbations will allow for warm advection showers and storms to develop. Overnight lows will remain mild, only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. On Tuesday, an upper low over the Baja shifts eastward towards the Plains and the northern jet stream over Canada digs southward over the Rockies. The two entities begin to interact by late Tuesday, setting up a surface trough over the Plains. The trough ejects eastward towards the Great Lakes through Wednesday, with its cold front entering the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday afternoon. An initial round of showers and storms is possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as a wave passes over the region, with a second round occurring with the frontal passage late Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance for showers and storms will come with the frontal passage Wednesday night, with an increased potential for some strong and severe storms to develop as well.

As the cold front departs to the east on Thursday, a surface ridge will build in over the region, allowing for calmer conditions to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Considerable cold air advection via northwesterly flow will cool temperatures considerably on Thursday, with morning lows in the mid-to-upper 30s and afternoon highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Thursday night lows will be similar to Wednesday night, though afternoon highs on Friday will rebound into the low 60s. Conditions on Saturday will be similar to that of Friday, though a weak disturbance passing through the region late Saturday could allow for the chance of a few showers to develop during the afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 114 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Ahead of an approaching cold front, a line of showers with limited embedded thunder is working east near SDF and BWG. The line will continue east to LEX and RGA. Winds ahead of the line have been gusty out of the southwest, but along and behind the line, gusts have dropped with winds becoming lighter and variable. This has made the wind forecast challenging. Behind the line, winds are expected to eventually return to a southwest direction with winds possibly gusting again later this afternoon and ceilings are improving. Tonight, as the cold front pushes southeast through the area, ceilings are expected to drop into MVFR and possibly IFR levels. BWG and LEX may not see a return to VFR conditions until mid to late morning Sunday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.