textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * Showers and/or thunderstorms could arrive for some Monday evening, but a better chance for rain/thunderstorms arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front, dropping temperatures back to near normal on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 443 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Today, we are beginning to see an upper trough drop south through the Western states as ridging develops over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. With surface high pressure remaining over the Southeast, southern winds will continue blowing into central Kentucky and southern Indiana, resulting in WAA lifting temperatures into the mid 80s to near 90 under clearing skies.

Tonight, the overall pattern will just slightly amplify, low temperatures are expected to struggle to fall with the continued WAA. Mid 60s to low 70s can be expected for lows across the CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 443 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

On Monday, with the upper trough axis near the Four Corners and the ridge arching through the Great Lakes and New England regions, a couple of strengthening surface lows are expected to produce a cold front, from near the Oklahoma panhandle to Wisconsin, which will advance towards the CWA. Most of the day is expected to remain mostly sunny with gusty WAA lifting temperatures once again to the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA, but besides heat, moisture is expected to increase precipitable water values to 1.6 to 2" through western Kentucky into western Indiana. This is ahead of the main front where a shortwave could kick-off a line of showers and thunderstorms which could reach parts of the CWA by Monday evening. Current model soundings have instability fading by the time the line is expected to reach the CWA, but some gusty winds could still be possible before the line dissipates.

Tuesday, rain chances remain in the area ahead of the approaching cold front which continues to show an earlier arrival, as early as early Tuesday night. With moisture pushing north ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front. With the warm temperatures in place, still in the upper 80s to low 90s, instability could remain fairly high into the night, but depending on the time of arrival, the surface could be more or less stable. The forcing from the front itself could overcome this stable layer.

With the front moving through, Wednesday's high temperatures are expected to be limited to the mid 70s in parts of southern Indiana. Ahead of the front, low to mid 80s will remain possible.

On Thursday, highs are expected to be around normal (even slightly cooler) for this time of year, in the mid to upper 70s. Enjoy it because temperatures begin to inch back up day by day into the mid 80s by Sunday. Precipitation chances remain low during this time as the front sits south of the CWA with possible other small systems working past to the north. It gets messing during the long-term and should come into better focus as the time nears.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 707 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will last through the forecast period. Skies continue to clear become mostly clear as winds remain out of the south.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.