textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Record heat today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Wednesday is warmest in the south ahead of incoming rain. * Rain chances increase sharply Wednesday for another widespread rainfall event mixed with storms and a low-end severe threat for gusty winds.

* Rain chances linger Thursday before a cold front pushes through increasing the potential for our first frost Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

*****************Warm and Sunny Today*********************

Lexington and Louisville have officially broken the daily high temperature records at 89. Other daily high temperature records (Bowling Green) are on the verge of being broken by a degree or two. Sunny skies continue throughout today and breaking those record highs isn't out of the question entirely yet. Southwest winds at 8- 12 mph persist overnight, bringing warmer dew points from gulf moisture and a plume of moist air into Louisville's area by early tomorrow morning. Overnight lows with the added moisture are again right on the cusp of breaking the warm min records right around 70.

*************Tomorrow and Severe Potential***************

Tomorrow brings clear skies for S Central KY and overcast conditions for Southern Indiana at dawn. By noon, most of the CWA will be cloudy. Showers and pockets of thunderstorms should follow approximately the same timing. Ahead of the warm front pushing through, we will see enough surface heating to contribute to surface destabilization started by those high overnight temps and dew points. Expect to see highs in the upper 80s/low 90s tomorrow with dew points in the low 70s throughout the day. The entire CWA except for the southeast corner is in a marginal risk tomorrow for severe weather, mainly a wind-driven threat. Additionally, all of the CWA is in at least a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with the Bowling Green area, central KY, the Ohio River Valley, and Southern Indiana in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. These severe risks are based on the heavy moisture-loading occurring, with PWATs in the 2-2.5" range across the CWA. Much of the wind-driven severe will likely be as these storms collapse; there isn't enough shear to hold a cell together, so storms will likely grow due to seasonally-high instability, dump rain, and then collapse in a summer-like precipitation pattern. This should remain relatively consistent along the front, so expect heavy lightning activity, locally high rainfall values (generally .5-1.5" with local values in the 2-4"), localized flash flooding, and a few occurences of winds in the 50-60 mph range tomorrow.

Rain will continue through the overnight hours across the CWA, but should be lighter in intensity and more consistent across the region. In regions that may see a few breaks from stratiform-type rain, fog will likely develop due to light winds and low dew point depressions. As the front pushes back north on Thursday morning, S Indiana will see rain the longest and clips a marginal severe outlook for the moment. This is again likely wind-driven and will be limited by the amount of cloud cover. If clouds can clear out faster than noon, severe weather potential may increase but is highly unconfident at the moment. Daytime highs should be in the upper 80s for S Kentucky and low 80s for S Indiana and the Ohio Valley, again dependent upon cloud cover. Another muggy day, with dew points in the low 70s and upper 60s in S Kentucky. Overnight lows in the upper 50s/low 60s.

*****************Great Weekend Ahead***********************

Friday breaks out the fall-like weather again, with highs in the low to mid-60s; a cold front makes it's way through, bringing gusty winds in the 30 mph range and showers with it. Post-frontal overnight lows push the upper-30s and lower-40s mark, with frost in an isolated valley entirely possible as winds calm and the boundary layer decouples.

This weekend will see crisp, sunny highs in the upper-50s to mid-60s and nights perfect for bonfire season with lows in the low- to mid- 40s. Early next week starts to warm up toward the upper 60s and lower 70s, with overnight lows in the 50 degree range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the day today into tomorrow. SW winds gusting around 20kts for this afternoon and will weaken tonight. Skies will remain mostly clear until tomorrow when a frontal boundary will push into the area, bringing mid to lower level clouds. Rain showers will begin to move into the NW (HNB) tomorrow between 12-15z, and continue ESE. Sites could see periods of light, variable winds as the boundary pushes through.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.