textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues for the weekend and into next week. Temperatures begin to increase over the weekend and especially into next week, with low to mid-90s possible.

* A few shower and storm chances may return by late week, but current confidence is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

We have developed a pretty healthy cu field this afternoon, however there is a notable inversion at H7 that will limit any deep convective growth. That being said, there is a several thousand foot layer of instability between the LFC and the inversion where some vertical depth is occurring. Can't rule out a very brief sprinkle or very light shower out of one of these, although T/Td depressions are quite large and will probably evaporate most precip. Some of the 12z guidance does show a few blips of QPF across the area, and this is likely the culprit of that output.

Otherwise, high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to expand influence into our region through the weekend. This will leave us with dry conditions and temperatures near normal for this time of year. We will have some diurnal cu each afternoon and evening, and likely a patchy valley fog presence as well. Dew points during this stretch will also be relatively comfortable for this time of year, and generally be confined to the low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Sunday - Wednesday...

Upper ridging builds from the central CONUS to the eastern CONUS from late weekend through the middle of next week. This will lead to a more prolonged period of dry weather compared to what we have seen most of this summer. In addition, temperatures will be on the increase, especially as we get into next week. Forecast soundings don't necessarily show much of a cap, however they do show pretty dry low levels with abnormally high LCL/LFC heights, and with the lack of any triggers outside of diurnal heating it does look like we stay largely dry. Could we pop a stray shower or brief storm one afternoon due to the lack of a cap? Sure, but coverage/confidence are way too low to carry any mention at this time.

The bigger issue will be temperatures things steadily heat up thanks to the building ridge. Highs are expected mostly in the low 90s on Sunday, and then will give way to readings in the low and mid 90s at least through Wednesday. Dew points are mostly expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s through this period, and while that will be muggy, it won't be to the extent as some of the earlier stretches of heat and humidity we saw this summer. As a result, max heat indices are largely expected to stay in the 90s on Sunday and Monday, with values more likely to reach into the low 100s by Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible we could flirt with some Heat Advisory headlines by this time, but that would be mainly along or west of I- 65.

Thursday - Friday...

There is lower confidence through the late week time frame whether or not the upper ridge will remain in place over our region, or whether it will retrograde back to the west and allow for the stronger NW flow aloft to regain dominance over our upper pattern. This will ultimately decide whether we stay in the increasingly hot and mostly dry pattern, or whether we get into a more active pattern with convection. The latter scenario would likely result in some slightly lower temperatures, but also would come with higher storm chances. For now, will continue with a blend of those two scenarios where temperatures still stay pretty warm/muggy, but also with some scattered shower and storm chances each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 151 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

High pressure will control the region through this TAF cycle, and this will keep conditions VFR. Steady N winds today between 5 and 10 mph will give way to very light or calm winds overnight. Winds pick up again late morning on Saturday around 5 MPH and generally out of the SE. Look for Sct Cu around 5-8 K feet today, mostly clear skies tonight, and a Few Cu around 5-6 k feet on Saturday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.