textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. * Scattered showers and storms possible late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Very warm on Thursday, possibly 15-20 degrees above normal, with afternoon highs in the 80s.

* Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms along a cold front on Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Conditions are dry and mostly sunny this afternoon with a light easterly wind. Sfc high pressure will continue to shift ESE over the Mid-Atlantic into tonight. A dry low-level airmass is in place, and low-level mixing has lowered sfc dewpoints into the mid/upper 20s in many areas. Temperatures have risen through the 50s this afternoon, with lower 60s now in southern KY.

Tonight and Wednesday, the weather will remain fairly quiet. We'll have some mid and high clouds streaming in from the northwest. Low- level SW winds will increase on Wednesday as the pressure field tightens ahead of low pressure moving across the Upper Midwest.

Tonight will still be chilly with very light easterly winds and the near-sfc layer decoupling. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but some of our coolest low-lying areas could dip into the low to mid 30s. 10-20 mph SW winds and WAA will help boost temperatures into the 69-75 degree range for afternoon highs on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

===== Wednesday Night into Thursday ====

A strong mid and upper level ridge will be positioned over West Texas and northern Mexico during this time frame. A potent upper level jet will be streaming across the US/Canada border, with NW flow aloft continuing over the Ohio Valley. Robust SW low-level flow will advect warm, moist air northeastward ahead of a cold front sinking southeast through the Midwest.

A mid-level shortwave impulse dives southeast over the Ohio Valley Thursday morning, with a 40+ kt WSW low-level jet response. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though this idea does not have a ton of support from the 12Z CAMs. Confidence in the pattern as well as the latest global models support the idea of scattered showers and elevated storms early Thursday. HREF data and forecast model soundings suggest any instability will be quite weak (<250 J/kg) and elevated, so the severe weather risk is low.

Thursday afternoon and evening will likely be dry due to strengthening low-level capping south of the cold front. Expect warm, breezy conditions with highs in the low to mid 80s.

===== Highest Rain Chances on Friday =====

Area-wide rainfall chances peak on Friday along and behind the cold front with another anafront setup. Convection firing closer to the actual cold front across central IL/IN/OH will attempt to push south into the area early Friday morning. We could see some gusty winds in this setup, but waning instability should help limit the severe threat. The cold front quickly surges south through the area Friday morning, with cooler showery weather in its wake.

===== Weekend Outlook =====

Strong sfc high pressure builds southeast over the region on Saturday, bringing fair weather and chilly temps. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s are possible Saturday morning. Look for plenty of sunshine Saturday with highs in the 50s. High pressure then quickly shifts to the east, allowing SW return flow to draw warmer air into the region again Sunday into early next week. Highs in the 60s are possible Sunday, with 70s by Monday. We'll have a small chance for rain in a WAA regime once again on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are likely through this forecast period. SCT mid and high clouds are forecast for this afternoon through Wednesday. A BKN mid-level ceiling is expected for a relatively short period of time tonight (after 00Z Wed), with clouds becoming SCT again Wednesday morning. Easterly winds of 5-10 kt will diminish this evening. Winds are forecast to veer S/SW on Wednesday and increase to 10-15 kt after after 15Z.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.