textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dense fog is occurring across all of southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky this morning, with visibilities of 1/4 mile or less possible. Dense Fog Advisory in effect.

* A few slick spots are possible on elevated surfaces in areas where temps fall just below freezing.

* Warming temperatures are expected early this week, with temperatures flirting with records on Thursday.

* Active weather pattern returns for the second half of the week. Showers and storms appear increasingly likely, with rain chances potentially lingering into the weekend. Strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out, but the details are still uncertain.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fog west of I-65 has mixed out for the most part, with mostly sunny skies being reported. Still have a band of low stratus from Munfordville northeast into north-central Kentucky. This area of stratus is eroding from the south while pushing northeast, so it will take some time for it to mix out. Skies are starting to mix out across the southern Bluegrass and should continue through the afternoon hours. With dense fog not being reported, will let Dense Fog Advisory expire at 1700Z.

Issued at 1037 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fog is starting to break up decently out in areas west of the I-65 corridor. Expect most fog in this area to be mixed out by 16 or 1630Z. East of I-65, visibilities are improving, but a thin layer of low-level stratus is building westward. Clearing was noted southeast of a line from Allen county northeast to Garrard county. Have gone ahead and trimmed the Dense Fog Advisory on the southeast and eastern sides, where visibilities have improved in the last 30- 45 min. Remainder of advisory still looks good through 17Z.

Issued at 949 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Widespread dense fog event continues across the region. While temps did drop below freezing in spots, not many reports of slick roads, likely due to the lag in pavement temps compared to air temps. Fog will slowly mix out over the next few hours, but have coordinated with surrounding offices to extend Dense Fog Advisory until 17Z. Updated text products are in production and will be available shortly.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Pretty impressive dense fog event ongoing across the region as skies have cleared out on schedule, and dense fog has quickly expanded as a result of the good radiational cooling/lingering low level moisture. Current Dense Fog Advisory looks pretty well placed, and will continue to monitor obs webcams for any needed expansion into the few southern KY counties not in it. It is possible we may have to add counties from a Scottsville up through Columbia line if clouds continue to clear there. Otherwise, the other change to the NPW product is to add some mention of patchy slick spots possible, mainly on elevated surfaces like bridges or overpasses. Temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing in some locations across southern IN and northern KY at this hour. Overall, surfaces should lag air temps a bit given how mild we have been, but still a bit concerned about elevated surfaces developing some patches of black ice through the early morning hours.

The fog is well established, so expect a slow recovery after sunrise, and may have to extend the NPW another hour if it lingers. Regardless, do expect improvement by late morning to midday. This may hurt high temps just a bit given the slower start to heating, so did back off highs slightly. In addition, some scattered upper sky cover may also limit heating a bit. Still, well above normal temps in the upper 50s and low 60s expected for most. Dry conditions continue into tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s once again. Cooler decoupled areas into the mid 30s are possible. Some fog development is possible again later tonight, but not expecting widespread dense fog like what is currently ongoing.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Upper level ridging over the eastern part of the US is leading to a fairly calm Tuesday before entering an active pattern later in the week. As a strong low pressure systems moves over the Dakotas Tuesday night, a strong pressure gradient moves into the Ohio Valley causing breezy conditions. Sustained wind speeds of around 10-15kts can be expected with gust around 20kts likely. We will see gradual warming temperatures through mid week, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 60s to low 70s. A chance for light rain showers associated with the low cannot be ruled out for Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected as there is a very shallow saturated layer with dry area aloft. Strong capping inversion will be in place over the area to limit any deeper vertical development through the day on Wednesday.

Thursday - Sunday...

Another low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Plains Thursday, due to a secondary shortwave disturbance. This system looks to track NE through the Great Lakes region, with a frontal boundary stretching through the Ohio Valley down into TX. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible to develop along this boundary Thursday night into Friday. Exit region dynamics overspreading a modest warm sector could support some more discrete cells with potential for a few rotating updrafts. Wind shear profile and moisture seems to support this, but instability will be the limiting factor for more widespread and more intense severe potential. With the WAA being brought in from the south with this system, Thursday looks to be our warmest day of the week. Highs ranging in the low to mid 70s in South Central KY, and high 60s to low 70s in the Bluegrass and along/north of the Ohio River. Some records could be in jeopardy through mid week.

A third disturbance will possibly bring another round of rain on Saturday. GFS is most aggressive with impressive right entrance region upper support, and a mid level moisture feed roughly paralleling a quasi-stationary surface front. Other solutions are less aggressive, and overall confidence is quite low by the time we get to this time period. Something to watch for now. After these systems move out, we can expect a cool Sunday with temperatures back down in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Dense fog continues at all TAF sites except RGA, however they are still experiencing IFR ceilings. Conditions in the IFR down to minimums range will continue through late morning before a return to VFR by midday. Low level moisture may scattered into a slightly higher cloud deck, but eventually we should see just upper sky cover. Surface winds will find their way to a light SE or S component later today. Light SE winds and upper clouds persist into tonight. There could be a bit more patchy fog, but confidence is lower and magnitude is not expected to be nearly as bad.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for KYZ023>040-045>047-053-061>063-070>072. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.