textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Remnants of Isaias will bring more beneficial rainfall with 25- 75th percentile ranges of additional rainfall totaling 0.25-0.5 across most of the CWA with up to an additional 1" possible in central KY.

* Southwestern Indiana may miss out on most of the rain today and see mostly clear skies by sunset. Fog may form in these communities Monday morning along with more patchy fog as one heads east of I-65.

* Dry and warm weather will return Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances returning by Wednesday and Thursday. Friday features a cooling trend with temperatures returning to near normal then.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

===== Continued Messy Showers and Gradual Clearing West =====

Still dealing with the remnants of Isaias now as clusters or bands of showers will drift north while pivoting around the center of Isaias through the morning. There have been some decent soakers of heavier showers in these clusters, with Allen County having reported an additional 0.4" of rain since midnight. MUCAPE values have crept up to 500 J/kg in our SE CWA, and with enough lift, some showers could very briefly produce a lightning strike or two, though winds will remain light overnight and no severe weather is expected with anything that falls. Temperatures have all but reached their minimum with widespread temps in and around 60 this morning and will be sluggish to warm through the day on Sunday. Low hanging stratus and NE to eventually NW flow is the primary culprit in keeping highs cooler in the low 70s and upper 60s tomorrow.

Similar to now, clusters of showers will continue to pivot around the center of Isaias Sunday morning and will begin to move east towards I-75 and beyond by the afternoon hours. Should they grow tall enough, a rumble of thunder is possible but otherwise, hit or miss showers are expected. Additional rainfall today will vary greatly across the CWA. With the scattered nature and positioning of the clusters of showers, SW Indiana counties like Dubois and Perry may largely miss out on additional rainfall remaining under 0.1" of rain. Closer to central KY and in the Bluegrass region, as these clusters pivot, some heavier showers could drop an additional 1-3" of rain in isolated areas (according to HREF 24 hr LPMM data). However, the 25th-75th percentile range favors 0.25-0.5" across most of the CWA, with closer to 0.5-1" centered in area spanning from E- town to Shelby County.

As rain moves eastward, gradual raising of low level stratus and at least partial clearing in the western CWA will occur by mid afternoon somewhere between 1-5 PM EDT. Should breaks in the clouds occur earlier, some western towns like Huntingburg, IN could reach the mid to upper 70s but this will depend on the speed of Isaias finally leaving us. Regardless, the eastern CWA will stay socked into moisture throughout the day it seems and may hang on to showers and patchy drizzle until late Sunday night. With drying and clearing skies overnight Sunday into Monday morning, patchy fog will develop especially in the western CWA up until near the I-65 corridor. Communities east of there that might hang on to clouds a little longer may avoid fog formation or at least become even more patchy Monday morning.

===== Wave of Warmth Followed with Daily Rain Chances =====

Once Isaias finally gets kicked out of here by the mid level jet over the northern US, ridging will build back in its place. This will amplify a return to warm, SW flow and at least an initial dry spell from Monday through Tuesday. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected both days with highs in the low to mid 80s Monday to mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. Definitely a pattern flip from what we're experiencing now. By Wednesday however, the ridge to our south will itself dive a little further south allowing for a stalled out boundary along a deep digging trough over the central US to creep its way into the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will remain dry as shortwaves are expected to drift too far north to bring rain into our area. However, as the trough continues to slowly trudge eastward, multiple impulses or at least a steady plum of Pacific/Gulf moisture will keep rain and storm chances around (provided a strong enough trigger exists) will bring decent PoPs back into the CWA. Depending on how quickly this slow moving boundary can dive south through the CWA, will dictate how warm we will be by the middle to latter part of the week. Highs trend cooler with time and may return to the low 70s by Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 713 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mostly IFR-MVFR ceilings are across all terminals with patchy LIFR ceilings at times. -SHRA will be around nearly all terminals especially for BWG-SDF as a band of showers is expected to stall near these airports. A PROB30 for -TSRA was included at SDF for this band of heavier thundershowers that are possible. Just outside of this band, HNB will have the least coverage and highest ceilings today among all airports. Throughout the afternoon today, ceilings are slow to raise into MVFR heights. Winds will also shift out of the NW by the afternoon as well. Showers eventually end with gradual west to east clearing expected this evening. LEX- RGA will remain with low cloud cover until Monday morning. Patchy fog is also possible at HNB- SDF- BWG Monday morning though confidence is too low to include at this time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.