textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* The Cold Weather Advisory continues thanks to another morning with temperatures in the single digits, and maybe a few spots in the negatives. However, winds will be lighter, so wind chills will not be quite as cold.

* Temperatures will slowly moderate this afternoon through mid next week, with above normal temperatures expected by Thursday.

* A cold front Thursday will bring widespread gusty showers, and possibly a few storms, along with breezy southwest winds. Very brief cool down Friday, before temps trend milder again for Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Arctic surface high is settling into our region this morning, and temperatures are currently range in the 0 to 10 above range. Cold temperatures will persist through mid morning before we start to recover through the day. Cold Weather Advisory continues for the entire CWA until 15z, and no changes planned there.

Otherwise, look for a dry day with mostly sunny skies. Temps should warm into the mid and upper 30s across southern KY, with upper 20s and low 30s across southern IN and northern KY thanks to the lingering snow pack. Some passing upper clouds could also limit insolation just a touch. It will still be a cold night tonight as lows drop into the upper teens and low 20s, however it will certainly be milder than our current situation. Not much else to speak of in the short term. A pretty quiet stretch is in store.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

Overall dry conditions will continue into the mid week time frame with temps trending milder. Will continue to keep some small chances for a shower mainly across southern KY on Wednesday as a weak shortwave moves through the region. Temps look to warm into the mid and upper 40s north, and low 50s across the south on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a stronger shortwave trough digs into the central CONUS, with deepening SW flow aloft over our area along with a tightening pressure gradient at the surface. Perhaps a few showers move into our western CWA before sunrise as isentropic lift ramps up.

Thursday - Thursday Night...

Strong shortwave trough looks to approach and pass through on Thursday and Thursday night. Meanwhile, the associated surface low looks to cross through the Great Lakes region. Deep moisture pools over our area ahead of the approaching trough axis and surface cold front, with widespread showers and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Plenty of deep layer shear with this system, however it still appears that we will struggle to recover or realize some surface based instability. Current forecast only calls for dew points touching 50 on Thursday, and forecast sounding show a notable stable layer holding through the event. Won't completely take a stronger storm off the table, but for now think the most probable scenario is gusty showers.

The amount of expected rainfall has stayed pretty steady over the past several model cycles with generally .5" to 1" being a reasonable range. NBM probabilities of a half an inch or more are between 60-80% across the CWA, while probabilities over 1" drop off to 20-30%.

The cold front and upper trough axis pass through Thursday night with widespread precipitation ending from W to E. Data continues to show some cold air trying to catch the back side of this precip shield. Could end as some flurries, but not concerned about any of this as this scenario is usually difficult to accumulate anything given antecedent warm and wet surfaces (roadways etc).

Friday - Sunday...

Dry conditions return for Friday through at least Saturday morning, as brief and cooler high pressure take hold of the area. After morning lows in the 20s on Friday morning, Friday highs only recover just above freezing. Saturday starts off dry, but could see another quick hitting round of showers later Saturday as a cold front trailing from an eastern Canada system slides through. Low confidence at this point so stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions continue through the day as high pressure moves across the area. Later this morning, winds are expected to swing around to the SE and then the S/SW as high pressure moves off to the east. During the afternoon hours, sustained winds are expected to increase to around 10 kt out of the S/SW. Mid- and high-level clouds will continue to stream across the area, with any cloud bases expected to be greater than 12k ft.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.