textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Some sprinkles or very light rain is possible overnight tonight, but no more than a few hundredths are expected.

* Potential wintry system Sunday night into Monday that could bring a messy mix of precipitation types north of the WK/BG Parkways. The Monday morning commute could see minor impacts.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain and warmer temperatures through much of next week. A few rounds of storms are also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 327 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

It is a gorgeous February day, with mostly clear skycover, light winds, and temperatures ranging from mid to upper 60s to the low 70s across the south. We have a very weak, moisture-straved boundary situated across the area, where sfc dewpoints are split between the low 40s on the warm (southern) side of the boundary, to the low 20s on the northern side. Despite the weak winds today, we have been able to mix down RH values into the low 20s for our northern areas, even SDF is at 18% RH this afternoon with light winds. You do not see that very often. Upper level clouds are beginning to move in from the west, which will only continue to increase in coverage by tonight as a sfc low moves across the Ozarks.

For tonight, a weak mid-level perturbation will move over the Ohio Valley, and with the sfc boundary sitting across the area, some light rain will be possible for the overnight, mainly across southern IN and north-central KY. However, any precip will likely be falling out of a mid-level deck, with a good amount of dry air to pass through, so chances for measurable precip remain quite low. Virga is most likely, though sprinkles or very light rain is possible between 00-12z tonight.

By tomorrow, the sfc boundary gets pushed south of the area as sfc high pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes. We'll remain dry for tomorrow, with a considerable north-south temperature gradient. Our northern counties are forecast to reach the mid to upper-40s, though our warmest spot could be Lake Cumberland with low 60s. A slightly enhanced sfc pressure gradient tomorrow will support a bit more wind than today, but generally keep gusts under 15 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 327 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

===== Sunday Night through Monday =====

We'll be situated in the middle between a strong sfc high over the Great Lakes and the sfc frontal boundary across the TN Valley. The frontal boundary is forecast to remain to our south through this time, but will still support broad isentropic ascent underneath a passing mid-level disturbance. This combination will result in precipitation spreading across the area Sunday night and into Monday, with a period of mixed precipitation types most likely across southern IN and north-central KY as a warm nose intrudes due to SW warm air advective winds in the 850mb layer. The greatest uncertainty for p-types is the area between the I-64 and WK/BG Parkway corridors, where strength in the warm nose will dictate p- types. A messy mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain will all be possible mainly north of the Parkways, with higher confidence in plain rain across south-central KY.

Precip will likely begin as light snow across southern IN, but as the warm nose pushes into the region, will create a mess of p-types for the area. Depending on the strength and depth of the warm nose, could see light snow across southern IN switch over to freezing rain for a brief time Monday morning before sfc temps warm above freezing. As a result, some areas could see a light glaze of ice. Additionally, a light coating of snow is possible before the switch over, with southern IN possibly seeing a half inch or so of wet, heavy snow. Given the thermal profiles, snow ratios will be quite low, somewhere around 5:1. Given the chances for mixed precip types, some impacts to Monday morning commutes are possible. However, some factors working in our favor are road temperatures, which after some warmer days, are expected to be in the upper 30s and low 40s by Monday AM. We should begin to see mixed wintry precip as early as 1-2AM EST Monday morning, but the most impactful time is expected to be between 5-10AM EST. As mentioned in the previous discussion, we'll continue to monitor closely for trends and consider if an impact-based Winter Weather Advisory will be needed.

By mid to late-morning, sfc temps will warm above freezing, eventually changing over precip to all liquid for the rest of the day. Scattered rain showers will remain a possibility throughout Monday, with highs ranging from the mid-40s north of the WK/BG Parkways, to mid-50s across south-central KY.

===== Tuesday through Saturday =====

For middle to late next week, mild and active weather is expected across the central portion of the country. The upper flow will become more zonal on Tuesday, though will gradually amplify into a western trough and eastern ridge by the end of the week. This pattern will support a deeper SW flow across the Midwest, where multiple disturbances will ride through the flow and support an active stretch.

We begin Tuesday with the aforementioned sfc boundary lifting north through the forecast area, which will provide a focus on rain chances briefly shifting northward. We don't completely clear the rain chances, but could see a more isolated coverage of showers by Tuesday afternoon, and maybe a bit more drier conditions across our south. This sfc boundary will likely stall along the Ohio River by Wednesday.

Most mid-level shortwaves look to track across the central Plains through the week, though with the sfc boundary still situated across the region, it could act as a reinforcement for on and off shower and storm chances. We may not completely clear the boundary until it lifts north on Thursday, but by then we'll be deep within the warm sector of the next approaching cold front. That cold front could bring a strong line of showers and storms through here by Saturday.

As discussion in the prior AFD, the placement of the southeast ridge will determine the axis of heaviest precip, which is currently expected to be across the Midwest and south-central Plains. However, eventually that ridge will break down, allowing an eastward shift in the heavy rainfall axis, which eventually will move more toward the Ohio Valley. This is seen well between the CPC 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Precip outlooks, where you can see that eastward shift in above normal precip probability.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

BKN mid-level ceilings are overspreading the region from west to east. A wavy frontal boundary will linger over central KY tonight before shifting southeast of the terminals Sunday morning. Spotty light rain or sprinkles will be possible tonight, but low-level dry air will limit accumulation at the surface.

Winds will remain light and variable early in this TAF period, but will increase from the N/NE on Sunday in the wake of the frontal boundary.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.