textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A few isolated to scattered showers possible early this morning mainly north of I-64.

* Near-record warm temperatures today, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Southwesterly winds will be breezy today, with widespread gusts 25-35+ mph expected.

* Area-wide showers likely with a chance of storms along a cold front on Friday morning. Temperatures fall throughout the day behind the cold front passage.

* Widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

===== Early Morning Shower Chances =====

Early this morning, regional radar mosaic shows a cluster of showers and a few embedded storms moving across central Illinois and Indiana, driven by a weak mid-level shortwave and differential vorticity advection. Mesoanalysis also depicts a 850mb 35-40k LLJ across the Ohio Valley, which has aided in WAA and moderate low- level moisture advection. As a result, air temps are very mild across the region, with KY Mesonet obs reporting 60s across the entire area. These temps won't budge much through the remaining morning hours.

Isolated to scattered light rain will be possible through 13-14z this morning as this shortwave passes overhead. However, not everyone will see rain this morning, with the best precip chances mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor, but also a lower chance as far south as the WKY/BG Pkwys. Precip amounts should end up being fairly light. ACARS data this morning continues to show rather dry air below 700mb, which will evaporate most precip before reaching the ground. Additionally, there could be a few rumbles of thunder across southern IN this morning as model soundings indicate a meager pocket of elevated instability. Fortunately, severe weather is unlikely due to a strong low level cap to keep any storms elevated, but we also just lack any substantial instability to support deep convection.

===== Gusty Winds and Near Record Warmth Today =====

Drier weather and decreasing clouds are forecast for the area once this early morning wave exits. The main impact for today will be the gusty southwest winds, which will be in response to a tightening sfc pressure gradient and mixing down winds from the LLJ today. Southwesterly wind gusts of 25-35mph are expected across the entire area, but could see some isolated 40mph gusts today. This pattern will boost our WAA, leading to near record warm temps this afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.

===== More Rain Chances Tonight and Friday =====

Gusty winds will continue this evening and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will quickly drop into the region from the north after 06z tonight, leading to a sharp wind direction shift and increasing rain chances. We'll see a decaying line of showers and elevated storms follow just behind the actual front Friday morning and push south through the entire area throughout the morning. QPF has trended down slightly due to CAMs waning the intensity of this line even more, with most locations expected to pick up around 0.25" of rain with FROPA. Precip will taper off form north to south through the afternoon, with drier conditions expected by the late afternoon or early evening.

The frontal passage will bring a CAA punch to the area, and we'll see temps fall throughout the day. Max temps for Friday will likely occur around or after midnight with temps in the 70s, but then fall into the 50s by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

===== Drier Weather Returns for the Weekend=====

By Friday night, we'll be deep within a strong CAA pattern and post- frontal regime. Temps will fall from the upper 40s and low 50s to the upper 20s and low 30s by Saturday morning, which will likely lead to widespread frost. As mentioned in the previous discussion, per guidance from our agricultural partners, the growing season has begun, so we'll likely need a frost/freeze headline for Saturday morning.

Saturday will be quite a nice day as a strong sfc high sits directly over us. Temps are forecast to rise into the 50s by the afternoon, with plenty of blue sky and light winds. The sfc high will shift east on Sunday, which will open us up to warmer return flow. In response, temps are expected to be warmer with upper 60s, and dry weather continuing.

===== Early-Mid Next Week =====

The upper flow is more zonal by next week, with jet energy focused across the US/Canadian border. However, a mid-level ridge will be sitting over the southeast US, which will provide low-level and mid- level southwesterly flow through the Midwest and OH/TN Valley for several days, leading to a persistent channel of moisture transport from the Gulf. In this WAA pattern, we'll also end up with temps gradually warming through the week, with daily highs in the 70s and/or low 80s, leading to daily afternoon destabilization. This pattern will support daily shower and storm chances, mainly enhanced by daytime heating, with lesser precip chances each night. Next week is not expected to be a washout, with daily PoPs mainly limited to 30-40%.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 748 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mid-level and high-level clouds are moving across the region this morning, with some light rain chances through around 15z. Cloud cover will decrease in coverage for the daylight hours, though the primary impact to terminals today will be the gusty southwest winds, which are expected to gust up to 25-30kts this afternoon. However, VFR will continue throughout the period. Tonight, a cold front will drop south into the region and bring a line of showers and storms. Ahead of the storms, we will see a LLJ ramp up and bring LLWS to all terminals. Timing for showers and storms will be after 9Z in southern Indiana and after 12Z in central Kentucky.

CLIMATE

Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Record Maximum Temperatures Possible Thursday...

Thu, Mar 26th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 84 (2007) | 86 LEX 80 (2007) | 82

BWG 87 (1910) | 86

FFT 85 (1929) | 84

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.