textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold temperatures tonight with lows into the low/mid 20s.

* Dry weather with a gradual warming trend for the start of the week. Highs in the 40s Monday and into the 50s Tuesday.

* Gusty winds of 30-35 mph possible during the day Tuesday

* Next chance of precipitation arrives Wednesday into Thursday with a series of cold fronts working through the area with rain initially then potentially mixing and changing over to snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 416 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Upper level trough will push off to the east as sfc high pressure currently located over Mid Mississippi Valley builds into the TN Valley and Deep south overnight into tomorrow. Current visible satellite imagery shows lingering low stratus over IN with the southern most edge reaching the Ohio Valley with the rest of the CWA with clear skies. These clouds to the north are expected to clear out as we continue to advect in dry cold air from the northwest but it is common in post frontal environments that low stratus does linger and it could fill back in overnight. For now, we will continue with the idea that skies across the CWA will clear. With the clearing skies, winds will decrease and become light later tonight. With continued CAA, mostly clear skies and light winds, we will have a chilly overnight with lows dropping into the low/mid 20s by tomorrow morning.

After the chilly start tomorrow morning temperatures will be warmer than they were today. High pressure will settle off to our south providing a return southerly flow at the surface and heights will increase as the upper pattern flattens out aloft over the Ohio Valley. With mostly sunny skies, highs in the afternoon will warm into the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 416 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Weather will continue to remain quiet and dry with the continued warming trend as we go into Tuesday. As high pressure shifts more to the southeast and expands over the SE corner of the CONUS. Sfc low and associated upper shortwave will drop out of Canada and into the Great Lakes during the day Tuesday. This will tighten the sfc pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley increasing the southerly WAA into the region with highs on Tuesday warming into the 50s. Strong LLJ, combined with the tighten pressure gradient will also bring gusty winds for the day on Tuesday. As was mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, with any mixing, momentum transfer could create wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

The next system to impact the region will start to take shape Tuesday night into Wednesday as the deepening trough over the Great Lakes will lead to the development of a sfc low over the southern Great Lakes and bring the first of two cold fronts through the region by Wednesday morning. Rain showers ahead and along the cold front will be around through the day Wednesday. Like we saw with this last system, a second cold front near the upper trough axis will swing through late Wednesday. This will bring a re-enforcing shot of cold air allowing rain to mix and then change over to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. There are still differences in the deterministic models when it comes to this system as the ECMWF appears to be drier than the GFS. This would impact any impactful winter weather Wednesday night into Thursday.

Pattern turns more active and colder for the end of the week into the weekend. Pattern will feature strong ridging over the west with deepening trough across the eastern half of the CONUS. This will set up a series of disturbances working along the northwest flow into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 701 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Borderline MVFR stratus will linger at SDF, LEX, and RGA early in this TAF period. Warmer and drier air filtering in from the west should allow these low clouds to gradually scatter out from west to east between now and early Monday morning.

Sfc winds continue to back out of the W/SW overnight while diminishing. SW winds will increase to near 10 kt by late Monday morning, with gusts to 15-20 kts in the afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.