textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak system moves through the TN/OH Valley tonight, which will bring light snow and mixed precip to south-central and southeastern Kentucky. Light snow accumulations up to about 1 inch is possible.

* A roller coaster of temperatures awaits us over the next several days. We will see highs in the low 30s and highs in the upper 40s on and off each day as cold fronts move through.

* The active weather pattern will bring chances for light precip, but mainly liquid until late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 907 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

At this hour, the initial surge of heavier precipitation is moving through our Lake Cumberland counties. The 01Z RAP analysis shows the 850 mb 0C isotherm very close to that area, with the warmest temperatures aloft actually showing up around 800 mb per RAP soundings. As a result, areas along the TN border (in particular Monroe, Cumberland, and Clinton County) appear to have changed over to a wintry mix with sleet and possibly some rain mixing in. This will likely cut down on snowfall totals, though some areas could still see around 1 inch of snow and sleet through early tomorrow morning.

Farther to the north and west, precipitation is all snow, though precipitation rates are generally lighter. An additional band of flurries and light snow showers is beginning to develop from around Bowling Green back to near Clarksville, TN. Hi-res guidance suggests this band should continue to strengthen over the next few hours and pivot off to the east of I-65. The SPS looks to be well placed for areas which could receive light accumulations of snow through early Friday morning.

Along and north of the Parkways, cloudy, dry conditions continue tonight, with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. The main changes to the forecast at this time were to increase sleet mention across the Lake Cumberland region over the next few hours, resulting in a decrease in overall snowfall totals.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low-level moisture under an inversion continues to keep low stratus over the region. We have seen some areas in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky break out a bit. This has helped temperatures to increase just above freezing.

This evening, a weak trough and plenty of CVA will move through the region. An upper jet will place southern Kentucky under the right entrance region. At the surface, a low pressure system over the Gulf coast will extend an inverted surface trough into the lower Ohio Valley. Present moisture (0.75-0.9 inch PWATs) and large scale lift will allow for stratiform snow to move over southern Kentucky. There is a region of enhanced frontogenesis and low-level convergence along the trough that may lead to moderate snowfall over the Lake Cumberland region for a few hours. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance has indicated slightly higher snow totals as well. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lake Cumberland region from 0Z to 12Z for snow totals around 1 inch. The southeastern portion of the region (outside of the advisory) have an SPS for totals around 0.5 inches. It is possible that some localized areas will see slightly higher totals. Looking for a pretty wet snow (lower than normal snow to liquid ratio). Therefore, we could see some slick spots develop on roads.

Snow will push east of the region before sunrise, but clouds will remain through most of the day. In the afternoon, we will begin to break out from NW to SE. Conditions will remain dry and temperatures a bit warmer than the previous days, in the upper 30s and some lower 40s. Friday night, low stratus will likely increase as low-level moisture is present.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 307 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

On Saturday, a cold front will approach the region from the northwest, as the parent upper trough swing through southeastern Canada. This front will likely stall just northwest of the region. Meanwhile, the lower Ohio Valley will see some WAA, which will help temperatures increase into the upper 30s to mid 40s for highs on Saturday.

On Sunday, a shortwave riding along the broader troughing will push the cold front through the region and bring a chance for precip. Given the previous WAA and timing of the system, would expect this system to bring mostly rain, though it could begin as frozen precip Sunday morning.

After the front pushes through, high pressure and strong CAA will build in behind. Temperatures on Monday will be chilly. Wind chills in the morning will be in the teens over most of the region.

Tuesday, we will see ridging build over the region and temperatures warm to slightly below normal levels. Deep troughing looks to swing through the region on Wednesday, bringing a low pressure system through the northern Ohio Valley. Since we will be under WAA, expect precip associated with this system to be mostly rain. Though strong CAA and an occluding low could bring a cold air chasing wrapped moisture scenario where we see some light frozen precip on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Restricted flight categories will continue this morning as an area of low pressure passes through the region and support continued low cigs for the terminals. Periods of IFR and MVFR are expected through at least the morning hours, however there is confidence that we will begin to break out of this persistent stratus deck and may see terminals return to VFR later on this afternoon and evening. Winds for today will generally be from the south-southwest.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for KYZ075-078- 081-082. IN...None.