textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Conditions on Thursday will be blustery, with 20-30 mph gusts possible during the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible late Thursday-Friday.

* Conditions will continue to turn sharply cooler, with high temperatures likely (>90% chance) staying under 50 by Friday.

* There is a low chance for the first flakes of the season Thursday night into Friday mainly over the Bluegrass, but the warm ground should prevent anything from sticking.

* High pressure building in will allow for widespread dry weather Friday night through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Blustery northwesterly winds have begun to overspread the region as the cold front associated with a deepening 1001 mb surface low over Ohio has moved through. Temperatures behind the front have also fallen decently, with some places in western Kentucky experiencing greater than 8 degree changes over the past three hours. The region is currently under a 30-40 kt LLJ, and while cloud cover and the nocturnal timing has impacted mixing, the sharp pressure gradient and pressure rises of around 1 mb/hr will allow for 20-25 mph (localized gusts > 25 mph) gusts through the rest of the night.

By daybreak Thursday, the pressure gradient overhead will begin to be less pronounced, allowing for a reprieve from the gusty winds. However, this will not last long as vertical mixing deepens throughout the day. 850 mb winds per the latest REFS remains in the 20-30 mph range, so with the decent mixing in place, expect 10-15 mph sustained winds and 20-30 mph wind gusts. With the combination of wrap around moisture from the low, steep low-level lapse rates, and another shortwave impulse swinging over the region, chances for scattered rain showers will increase Thursday afternoon, especially for places along and east of I-65. Enough wrap around moisture will still be in place to allow for chances of isolated to widely scattered showers Thursday night-Frdiay. While chances are not high, there is the potential for a few snow flakes to mix in with the showers that pass through Friday morning and Friday evening.

Looking at the synoptic pattern late Thursday and beyond, the previously mentioned surface low shifts towards the NE CONUS as a broad upper-level low situates itself over southern Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region. Multiple impulses around the upper low will swing over the Ohio Valley, reinforcing cold air overhead going into the weekend. While temperatures Friday morning will not be the coldest of the forecast period (mid to upper 30s), the afternoon highs will be, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 40s. Persistent cloud cover begins to retreat Friday night, allowing for decent radiational cooling to occur. From the latest LREF, probabilities of below freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning are greater than 70%, decreasing to the 40-70% range for Monday morning. Afternoon highs will struggle to get above 50 during the weekend. The best chances will be south of I-64 and west of I-65 on Sunday where there is a 50-70% probability (chances quickly drop off to the north and east.

With high pressure building in, especially late Friday and beyond, another dry stretch of weather will be in store for the Ohio Valley. By the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, the region will be under a 1032 mb surface high (~95th percentile climatologically) and a 578 dm upper-level ridge (>90th percentile climatologically), expected to persist well into next week. Temperatures will begin to moderate some, with afternoon highs closer to normal for this time of year in the 50s. Decent radiational cooling will keep overnight temperatures cold though, with near/below freezing lows possible through next Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Surface cold front has exited off to the east of the terminals, with winds veering to the west-northwest. Gusts in the 18-25 kt range are expected through 00z Friday, with a brief decrease in gusts Thursday morning. While there have been brief improvements in ceilings following the showers and storms, ceilings will drop down to MVFR through midday Thursday. Chances for showers slightly increase Thursday afternoon, especially for central/eastern KY, though VFR conditions should prevail during this time frame.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.