textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Fog possible across the area late tonight into late Tuesday morning.

* Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week before a cold front drops into the region Tuesday evening. Light rain likely, mainly across southern KY Tuesday night.

* Additional signals for precipitation Thursday night into Friday and late this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Current satellite imagery shows a stratus band of clouds just moved out of the Bluegrass region, leading to sunny skies that will persist through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures have currently reached mid to upper 50s in the southern half of the forecast area. North of I-64 have only reached high 30s to mid 40s. Quiet weather and sunny skies should help melt off some of the snow cover.

As we move into tonight, an upper level ridge will move over the Ohio Valley, and brings a region of WAA in from the west. Surface high pressure will keep the winds light, but then will shift out of the south around midnight. Once we get around sunrise and in the mid to late morning time frame, expect SSW surface winds will pick up to around 10 mph, and surface dew points will start to surge. This milder and more moist flow over the existing cold snow pack looks like it could create a setup for an advection fog scenario. The higher res models, like the NAM, are hitting this hard but also with a noted low level moisture bias. Give that there are other models like the GFS Lamp/NBM that aren't as impressed can't have too high of confidence at the moment. Will handle with mainly just messaging patchy fog for now from the 06-18z time frame, but really starting to key in more on the 12-18z time frame for advection fog development, if it is going to occur. Something to monitor through the evening and overnight.

Through tomorrow afternoon, surface winds will range from 10-15kt associated with an approaching cold front from the NW. Gust nearing 20kts cannot be ruled out during this time. Low level moisture will advect into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf, and bring in a low level stratus cloud deck. Tomorrow afternoon areas across south central KY have a chance for rain showers. Temperatures will again be milder on the strong warm advection component with highs in the upper 50s across the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday Night...

Cold front trailing from the surface low over New England will be pushing through Tuesday night, with lingering rain showers ahead of it, mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Look for a drying trend from N to S through the night as this occurs, with colder air trying to catch up to the back side of the lingering precip. Could mix in some snow right at the end, but given the mild air ahead of that brief changeover, not issues expected with it. By Wednesday morning, looking for upper 20s and low 30s north, with low to mid 30s across central and southern KY.

Wednesday - Thursday...

Dry and unremarkable NW flow aloft takes hold through mid week with cooler high pressure at the surface building into the Great Lakes region. This should be a dry stretch with highs each day generally ranging from around 40 in the NE CWA to around 50 in the southern CWA. Wednesday night lows do get below freezing in the mid and upper 20s, so still have to watch for some re-freezing of snow melt, depending on how much, if any, is left in any given location.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

Low confidence for some light precipitation chances on Thursday night as low pressure looks to develop over the southern Plains/Red River Valley. The resulting placement of a warm frontal boundary and the associated overrunning setup will be focus for whether we see any light precipitation out of that system. Enough of a signal in the deterministic guidance to at least warrant small chances of a wintry mix, mainly across western or southern portions of the CWA. Other data keeps us dry with the warm frontal boundary setting up too far south for any isentropic lift overrunning the warm front. Either way shouldn't be a huge deal.

Friday and Friday night look like higher confidence for dry conditions as dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure should hold over the region. Temperatures for that period look to be near normal for this time of year.

Saturday - Monday...

Focus shifts to a larger/stronger system for the weekend that will have much more deep moisture to work with. Shortwave energy looks to eject out of the SW CONUS, and across the southern Plains on Saturday. An associated surface low (rather strong beneath loosely coupled upper jet structure) is then expected to move into the lower Mississippi or Tennessee River Valley by Sunday. As this occurs, deep moisture should gradually overspread our area from SW to NE sometime on Saturday, and then persist into Saturday night and Sunday as low level jetting responds nicely beneath favorable mid and upper jet dynamics. PWATs do look to jump possibly as high as the 1" to 1.25" range across central and southern KY, which looks to fall in the 90-95th percentile for climatology of this time of year. Also for context, LREF probs of greater than 1" in a 24 hour period Saturday - Sunday are sitting around 30-40%, while NBM probs are more in the 50-60 percent range. Current forecast QPF is ranging between 1.5 to 2.5" across the CWA with larger amounts across southern KY. Localized amounts over 3" can't be ruled out at this point. Overall, we'll have to see how well we melt the snowpack this week across central KY and southern IN, but at least one good thing is that the heavier rain currently looks to fall where the snow pack is already gone. Still, do think we could run into some minor flooding concerns for low lying areas and perhaps some river basins as well. Not real high confidence yet, we'll have to see how the week progresses.

Looks like we clear out by Monday, with a drier forecast expected by then. No real cool down expected behind this system, and if anything looks like it could be fairly mild.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 655 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A quiet and VFR start to this forecast cycle with light and variable winds and a few upper clouds streaming overhead. Surface winds will find their way to a light SE and then light SW component later tonight and toward sunrise on Tuesday. Around sunrise, more steady SW winds around 10 to 15 mph take hold, and this will bring milder and more moist air spreading over top of the cold snow pack. There is some concern for an advection fog event Tuesday AM possibly through midday, however confidence is overall low. Hinted at it a bit with vis, but the more likely scenario is for some low stratus to develop, possibly in the IFR range. Will also mention a brief LLWS threat for HNB/SDF around sunrise through late morning as a 35 knot low level jet ramps up along with 40-50 degrees of directional veering. Some light rain could begin later in the afternoon or early evening, along with continued chances for reduced vis and ceilings until a cold front pushes through Tuesday night.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.