textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A weak cold front is passing through the area today. Can't rule out an isolate shower this afternoon, but chances are low.

* Light rain showers are possible overnight and into early Monday morning for counties along and south of the Western Kentucky/Bluegrass Parkways. Very light rainfall amounts expected.

* Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for much of this week, with a few cool mornings expected.

* A chance for scattered showers and storms is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe weather chances are low, and rainfall amounts should be light (< 0.25") in most areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A weak cold front is sliding through the area today, noted by the wind shift from southwest to northwest, and increased cloud cover along or just ahead of the boundary. Can't completely rule out an isolated shower this afternoon, and even some light returns are noted on radar, but rather dry low levels will help keep a mostly dry forecast going. Sfc dewpoint depressions are around 20 degrees. To add to this, this front does not have much upper level support, with the primary upper low located across southern Canada.

For tonight, mid-level clouds will increase as the upper trough axis begins to pivot across the Ohio Valley. Mid-level vorticity associated with this wave will support modest forcing. Overall moisture in the column will increase from southwest to northeast just behind the front, which will lead to an increasing chance for isolated to scattered light showers overnight and early Monday morning. Not everyone will see these light showers however, with the chances limited to counties along and south of the WK/BG Parkways. The good news is that this is the area that most desperately needs rainfall, with the southern half of Kentucky experiencing severe (D2) or extreme (D3) drought. The bad news, however, is that this overnight rain chance will not be enough to alleviate these drought conditions. Model soundings continue to show the low level dry air sticking around, which will limit how much precip will make it to the ground. QPF for tonight is generally less than 0.05", with the HREF 6hr QPF prob of greater than 0.05" around 40-50% only for the Lake Cumberland area.

Light precip chances will exit our southeastern forecast area by 12- 13z tomorrow, with decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast throughout the entire morning. Expect mostly sunny skycover by the afternoon, though we'll be in a CAA regime, so temps will be slightly cooler than today. Forecast highs for tomorrow will hover between the upper 60s and low 70s.

Dry and pleasant weather continue from Monday into Monday night as sfc high pressure moves across the area. We'll continue to see mostly clear skycover for Monday night, with temps down into the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 313 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday - Wednesday Night...

At the beginning of the extended forecast period Tuesday morning, cool and dry conditions are expected across central Kentucky and southern Indiana, with high pressure centered over the middle Appalachians. During the day on Tuesday, warmer southwesterly flow will begin to spread into the region ahead of a secondary upper shortwave descending from central Canada. Temperatures should be about 5 degrees warmer across the area compared to Monday, with highs generally ranging from 75-80. Mid- and upper-level clouds from upstream showers/storms should increase Tuesday night, with low- level dry air holding off most of the significant rain chances until after midnight.

Early Wednesday morning through the day on Wednesday, a sfc cold front associated with the upper shortwave is expected to pass from NW to SE across the Ohio Valley. Along the front, moisture should increase, though PWATs are only expected to rise to around 1", or roughly the 50th percentile of model climo. While there should be some instability for storms to the NW of the area Tuesday evening, by the time the front reaches the area early Wednesday morning, the loss of diurnal heating combined with sfc dewpoints only in the low- to-mid 50s should lead to mostly (if not entirely) plain rain showers as the cold front begins to pass through.

During the day on Wednesday, the sfc cold front will take its time working to the SE across southern and eastern KY. While the initial line of showers should push SE of the area around midday Wednesday, if the front and its associated llvl moisture gradient and wind shift is slower to clear through the area, then lingering instability east of I-65 may lead to a second round of showers and storms in the afternoon. Some of the more aggressive progs (e.g., NAM) have 1200-1600 J/kg SBCAPE develop Wednesday afternoon across east central KY, although the LREF ensemble mean SBCAPE is only 200- 400 J/kg. If some of these more unstable solutions occur, then an outside chance for storms with gusty winds or hail would be possible, and there is a modest signal for strong storms in the medium range AI/ML guidance.

Otherwise, Wednesday should be a breezy day thanks to the strong pressure gradient with cold FROPA. SW winds veering to W/NW through the day of 10-20 mph with 20-30 mph gusts are likely. Cold advection will weaken Wednesday evening, with clearing skies allowing temperatures to drop into the mid-to-upper 40s and low 50s by Thursday morning.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

High pressure will move over the region on Thursday, bringing dry conditions with slightly below normal high temperatures in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s. For the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, ridging across the western half of the CONUS is favored in ensembles to spread east across the central and eastern CONUS, with sfc high pressure pushing east of the Appalachians. This should bring an anomalously warm air mass into the Ohio Valley by next weekend, with a warming trend starting Thursday night into Friday.

Overall, mainly dry conditions are favored for Friday into next weekend, with the caveat that there is still some spread in the guidance on whether a series of disturbances ejecting across the top of the central CONUS ridging will be able to provide enough support/moisture to get showers and storms far enough southeast to impact the Ohio Valley. Right now, in some of the drier solutions, the pattern would bring the best chance of seeing 90 degree temperatures so far this year. Right now, the LREF probability of 90 degree temperatures is 5-10% on Saturday, and is 10-30% on Sunday, which is particularly impressive given the typical cool bias in raw ensemble temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 805 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period. A generally north wind remains over the region with a weak cold front sitting over far southern central Kentucky. Late tonight, there is a low chance for isolated to scattered showers developing near BWG, LEX, and RGA, but with dry low levels in places with higher cloud decks, rain chances are somewhat limited.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.