textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dreary, but warm weather today with a chance for brief light rain or drizzle.

* Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely through Sunday, with temperatures expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal.

* A strong cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday night. Showers, some storms, and gusty winds are likely at times Sunday and Sunday night. Severe storms cannot be ruled out.

* Temperatures plummet into the 20s by Monday morning, with colder weather lingering through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

The cold front is currently draped over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky and will continue to meander south into the I-64 corridor this afternoon. A stout inversion is present around 800mb, which has trapped very moist air in the low levels. Moisture in the low levels and the present cold front has allowed for low stratus to blanket the region and some isolated very light showers to move along the front. Additionally, some low stratus has reduced visibilities. Current conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the day. We will see patchy dense fog again tonight over the northern half of the region, along the front.

Broad ridging over the central CONUS continues to shift east into the Ohio Valley. This will bring in some weak WAA and increase temperatures tonight and into Friday. Tonight, a shortwave trough will ride along the broader troughing developing a low pressure center over the mid-Mississippi Vally on Friday. This low will track over the northern Ohio Valley, forcing the stalled stationary boundary back north as a warm front tonight. This will keep isolated light showers over the northeastern half of the region. Friday night, the cold front of this system will push through the region. Highs on Friday look to be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

A complex forecast through Friday as the front meanders over the region. Low clouds, fog, and chances for very light showers will remain through Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Friday Night through Saturday...

The cold front will push through the lower Ohio Valley bringing dry conditions for Saturday. Ridging aloft is forecasted to amplify over the region, which will will help to keep temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for the day.

Saturday Night through Mid Next Week...

The main axis of the upper ridging will move over the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. A 40kt LLJ is expected to develop Sunday morning, which will help to usher in better WAA and increase chances for showers and possibly elevated convection Sunday morning.

Deep troughing over the western CONUS will push east into the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. This feature will develop a low pressure center over the upper Midwest, which will quickly strengthen and mature. As the low tracks eastward through the Great Lakes, it will send a strong cold front southeast into the lower Ohio Valley. Recent guidance has trended slower, bringing the cold front through Sunday night into Monday morning. This is beneficial, given the diurnal minimum in instability during this timeframe. Though do expect a line of showers and a few storms along the cold front, given the deep lift/forcing to present moisture.

As the front passes through, strong CAA may allow for some rain to mix with snow or completely transition to snow. Precip chances will taper off as the front continues to push off to the southeast. Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front, bringing highs on Monday into the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s. High pressure behind the front will help to keep conditions mostly dry. Upper northwesterly flow will keep temperatures chilly in the upper teens and 20s for lows and 30s for highs through mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 701 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

As a front slowly pushes north through the region, low level moisture continues to cause problems with low ceilings and reduced visibilities. All the low level moisture is producing periods of heavy mist and drizzle. Expect bouncing in visibilities as drizzle moves through the area. Ceilings are expected to remain in the LIFR to MVFR ranges through most of the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Record High Temperatures Possible...

Sun, Dec 28th Rec (Yr) | FCST SDF 70 (2021) | 71 LEX 67 (2021) | 68

BWG 72 (2021) | 73

FFT 69 (2021) | 69

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.