textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild conditions are expected tonight through Monday morning. Monday will be breezy with wind gusts up to 30mph.

* Severe weather rolls in Monday night - Tuesday morning with The highest risk strong/severe gusty winds west of I-65. This risk gradually weakens east of I-65, though still possible overnight into Tuesday.

* Another round of severe storms for strong winds and hail returns Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning with the highest risk in our southwest CWA.

* Temperatures cool Wednesday afternoon and will run below average Wed-Sat for late April/early May.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Low stratus still hanging on in the I-65 corridor between E-town and Scottsburg, IN. The low clouds are eroding from the west and the east, so the Bluegrass region will see partly to mostly sunny skies just after lunchtime. In that corridor from Scottsburg, IN south through Louisville and down to Hodgenville, clouds will likely stick around through 100 PM EDT and then mix out by roughly 2 PM EDT.

Update issued at 956 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Morning satellite imagery shows an extensive area of low stratus across southern Indiana and across north-central and east-central Kentucky. Mostly clear skies were noted across south-central Kentucky where temperatures had already warmed into the middle 60s. Underneath the stratus, temperatures were still in the low-middle 50s.

Current forecast thinking is that stratus will take some time to mix out this morning. Already seeing the mix out occur across southwestern IN and in our northwest counties. We think that we'll start to break out around lunchtime or shortly thereafter, with skies becoming partly sunny for the afternoon hours. This will delay diurnal heating across the northeast half of the CWA, but overall we believe that we can still warm into the 74-79 degree range across the northeast quad of the forecast area. Down across south-central KY, highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Currently, low stratus is building in from the northeast and will likely cover the northeastern half of the region around day break. This stratus will steadily lift and thin through mid-late morning. Additionally, river valley fog has developed over the Lake Cumberland region. For this reason, an SPS has been issued through 14Z.

Upper ridging is continuing to build over the region and will be the main feature today through Monday. Dry and warm weather is expected. Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s in the Bluegrass and upper 70s and low 80s elsewhere.

Overnight, winds will slowly veer to the south. Looking to see low temperatures in the low 50s in the Bluegrass and mid-upper 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

===== Monday - Tuesday Morning Storms =====

Initial ridging is in place Monday morning with clear to mostly clear skies and morning lows in the mid to upper 50s. This low to mid level ridging along with an advancing shortwave undergoing cyclogenesis to our northwest will boost warm SW flow. High temperatures should reflect this warming quickly into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon with gusty afternoon winds of 20-30 MPH with daytime mixing. The weather pattern shifts later in the afternoon on Monday as high to mid level cloud cover increases. The low to our west will be advancing quickly towards the Great Lakes following the left exit region of a mid level jet. As this low moves away, an associated cold front will kick off a QLCS over MO/IL. As this approaches, the best synoptic forcing for ascent will be departing towards the Great Lakes, and our cold front kick-starting these storms will eventually stall somewhere over the upper Ohio Valley.

So, by Monday evening, as the QLCS approaches, it will be weakening due to less sources for lift from weakening upper level jet dynamics, loss of lift from the stalling cold front, and loss of daytime instability moving into our area after sunset. As a result, a main line of storms, may be preceded by a weaker line ahead of the main event, will be slowly collapsing as it moves east towards our CWA. Despite this, a low level jet will still move overhead and sustain itself long enough to pose a strong wind gust threat, allowing for the storms that roll through to mix down these strong wind gusts to the surface overnight. Therefore areas west of I-65 have the highest risk of damaging wind gusts before the line collapses as it progresses east. Damaging wind gusts are less likely as storms collapse east of I-65, though this is still a risk overnight Tuesday. Additionally, there is a chance of a tornado in this line of storms, especially if any bowing line segments produce kinks or rotation along the line. Additional non-severe threats also include heavy downpours and lightning as well.

Current timing suggests storms arrive in our western counties by 9- 10 PM EDT progressing eastward hitting the I-65 corridor near or shortly after midnight. Highest rainfall totals favor where the storms are strongest in our western communities ranging 0.5" to 1" inch (75% of these rainfall totals occurring). Some western areas could see more than an inch depending on the severity of the storms. These storms will eventually clear the area before dawn Tuesday morning with some initial clearing expected. Tuesday morning lows are rather warm from continued SW flow in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

===== Tuesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night =====

The weather pattern remains busy and messy Tuesday into Wednesday. From the stalled out cold front over the Ohio Valley, this will serve as an axis for additional shortwaves to travel along and bring in more rain chances late Tuesday-Wednesday morning. Working in tandem with a descending trough from southern Canada, another surface level shortwave from the Southwest US will undergo lee cyclogenesis and phase with the upper level trough swinging down from Canada. Slowly it will strengthen as it heads along a path directly overhead our CWA. So, despite the initial clouds clearing Tuesday morning, this will increase instability across the area ahead of the impending strengthening shortwave. Highs on Tuesday will remain warm in the upper 70s to low 80s, though these may reach higher depending on how much clearing there is in the afternoon. With clearing skies and ample instability with CAPE ranging 1000- 1500 J/kg, a few clusters of storms or isolated pop up storms could be possible should any source of lift be present in the afternoon. Associated severe threats from this would be strong gusty winds and hail with taller echo tops. Should skies remain dry Tuesday afternoon, then rain from the incoming shortwave will hold off until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, limiting the instability any storms could tap into. Depending on the track of the shortwave, if this moves directly overhead our CWA, this could shift severe weather south and west out of our region, leading to more general rain showers to help alleviate the ongoing drought.

Wednesday morning, rain showers or storms will linger near sunrise before being swept away by an incoming cold front from this departing shortwave. By Wednesday afternoon, this cold front should actually clear the whole CWA bringing in drier, cooler air and ending rainfall by the afternoon hours. Mid range model guidance has a decent spread in rainfall totals across the area, with 25-75th percentiles differing by about an inch. Average rainfall totals though should be anywhere from 1 - 2.5", highest totals favored in the southwestern CWA. Highs are cooler on Wednesday ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s.

===== Thursday - Saturday =====

Beyond Wednesday, synoptic weather pattern calms somewhat, with general troughing over the CWA, reinforcing cooler air filtering in from the northwest. Highs on Thursday are cooler in the low to mid 60s with chilly overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs are similar in the low to mid 60s as well. Cloud cover will increase from a quick hitting shortwave in the general troughing pattern, though rain chances are low (<30%) with high uncertainty in how much will fall, though whatever falls should remain light. Cooler weather pattern sticks around for Saturday with chilly morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and highs in the 60s again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 702 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Low stratus is building in from the northeast and has overspread the northern terminals. CIGs around 1200 are expected. CIGs may drop to 800ft over the Bluegrass. Heating will allow CIGs to lift and thin slowly. Looking to see clear skies by the afternoon. Winds will slowly veer to the southeast tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.