textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and tranquil weather expected for Thursday with highs in the 60s.

* Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region late Thursday night and early Friday bringing a few very light rain showers to the region. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs in the 60s.

* Drier weather is expected for Saturday, but temperatures will be running well below early May values. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to around 60 across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky with lower 60s across southern KY. Frost will be possible Sunday morning across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky

* Weather pattern may become more active early-mid next week as several systems are forecasted to move through.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

29/18Z surface analysis shows surface cold front getting ready to exit the LMK forecast area. Drier air is advancing into the region from the west with the back edge of the cloud cover crossing the I- 65 corridor. Behind the front, temperatures were generally in the low-mid 60s with lower 70s still noted over the Lake Cumberland region. A few showers will cross the I-75 corridor over the next hour and once the front advances on through, the threat of appreciable rainfall will be over with. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect clearing skies to continue to work into much of central/eastern KY from the west. No significant weather is expected.

For tonight, surface high pressure over the Plains will continue to build eastward into the region with skies becoming mostly clear late in the night. Overnight lows will drop into the lower-mid 40s, but a few spots across our northern row of southern Indiana counties could touch the upper 30s.

For Thursday, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern with a mostly sunny day on tap. Afternoon highs will warm into the low-mid 60s across southern Indiana and much of the northern half of Kentucky. Mid-upper 60s will be possible down in areas along/south of the Cumberland Parkway. Clouds will begin to increase late Thursday night ahead of a mid-level perturbation dropping in from the northwest. A few showers will be possible over our southern Indiana counties with mainly dry conditions over Kentucky. Lows will range from the upper 30s/around 40 in the Bluegrass region with low-mid 40s elsewhere.

Moving into Friday, the upper level pattern will feature a closed low over southern Ontario/western Quebec with a broad trough axis across the eastern US. Aforementioned mid-level perturbation will drop into the base of this trough and will bring a chance of showers to southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky Friday morning and into Friday afternoon. This feature will not have a lot of moisture to work with and model soundings do show quite a bit of dry air in the low-levels. So rainfall amounts will be quite low, likely less than 0.05 inches. Highs on the day will feature a gradient across the region with upper 50s to the lower 60s over southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Mid-upper 60s are expected across the southern half of Kentucky. Partly cloudy skies are expected for Friday night, but it will be chilly. Lows will range from the upper 30s to around 40 across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with lower 40s down across southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Saturday through Sunday Night...

Moving into the medium range period, upper level flow pattern will be in a split flow configuration across the western CONUS with a downstream trough axis centered across the Ohio Valley. Upper trough axis will sharpen up with time resulting in surface cyclogenesis across the SE US during the day on Saturday. Arrival of the upper trough axis is a little faster in this forecast period. As the upper trough passes, it could bring a few isolated-scattered showers to southern KY during the day on Saturday. Main weather story for Saturday will be the below normal temperatures. Highs on Saturday will only warm into the upper 50s to around 60s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Some lower 60s are expected across southern Kentucky.

The upper trough axis will then shift east of the area by Saturday night with another area of high pressure builds into the area. The combination of light winds and clear skies should result in good radiational cooling across the region with widespread lows in the mid-upper 30s. Decent frost threat continues to look likely for much of the areas east of the I-65 corridor. This would be characterized as a late season frost as our frost climatology states that getting a frost beyond May 1st has a probability of about 30%. So folks that have set out vegetation should be prepared to cover things up Saturday night/Sunday morning. Sunday should feature dry conditions with highs warming back into the 63-68 degree range. Another mid-level wave will approach from the northwest late Sunday night bringing a chance of showers to the region and lows upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Moving into next week, the pattern is expected to become active once again. We'll be watching an upper level low come into the western CONUS and eventually working into western Plains and combining with an approaching mid-level trough axis over the central/northern Plains. This will help spurn cyclogenesis across the Midwest with a cold front swinging through the region around mid-week. Overall details in the synoptic pattern continue to show variability on the timing of this wave. However, ensemble precipitation probabilities are rather high across the board, so overall confidence in a stormy pattern continues to increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A surface cold front will push through the region this afternoon. Expect a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions out across eastern KY in advance of the front to persist through late afternoon. The front has already cross KBWG/KBWG/KSDF and cigs will improve from MVFR to VFR at BWG/SDF in the next 1-2 hours. Behind the front, northwest winds of 10-13kts and gusts of 19-22kts will be possible through sunset. After sunset, VFR conditions are expected overnight with skies clearing out from NW to SE. Winds will start off out of the northwest and then veer to the north and eventually northeast by early Thursday morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.