textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight. Gusty winds are the main threat, mainly west of Interstate 65. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

* Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday night through early next week.

* Another cold front brings possible severe weather Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

With zonal flow above and high pressure at the surface, skies are mostly clear over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This is expected to lead to area of fog this morning, mainly over south central and eastern Kentucky. After sunrise, any fog is expected to quickly dissipate, leaving mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures that are expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s.

This evening and tonight, as a low pressure system works east over Ontario, it will drag a cold front east through the Ozarks towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Over the CWA ahead of the front, southern winds will have precipitable water values over 1.6" and in some areas reaching 2-2.25". Some guidance continues to show a possible MCS developing over Missouri into Illinois later this morning into the afternoon before it continues east into the CWA this evening/early tonight. With the warm temperatures and humidity (dew points upper 60s to low 70s) in place, MLCAPE values are expected to range from around 1,800 to 2,800 J/kg ahead of the advancing convection, west of Interstate 65. Model soundings point to strong to severe winds and hail development, but with deep layer shear remaining limited. Any hail will likely see some melting as it falls. The high PWATs with the high instability also point to high rainfall rates being possible. Not expecting widespread flash flooding as the convection is expected to pass through fairly quickly, but any training or slow moving storms could lead to flooding concerns. The early convection this evening/tonight is expected to dissipate and become more elevated as it continues east.

After the initial line of convection passes through the CWA, there will likely be a break before the convection closer to the cold front arrives after midnight. By this time, most of this convection will likely be elevated with much less instability. The chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with this second wave looks low. Most will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday, the bulk of the widespread convection is expected to come to an end during the morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the day. Skies will try to clear from the northwest. CAA on northwest winds behind the front will slightly limit highs to the upper 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Beginning Sunday night, an upper trough axis remains near the CWA as the upper low the trough is connected to sits and spins over Ontario. This pushes a surface high through the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. CAA on Monday limits highs to the mid 70s in most places with dew points in the low to mid 50s, so it's going to feel cooler throughout the Lower Ohio Valley. The center of the surface high is expected to pass east of the CWA on Monday night, resulting in return flow for Tuesday. Highs begin to warm slightly, back into the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday and the low to mid 80s by Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday, looks to be our next chance for widespread precipitation as a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented cold front drops southeast through the Ohio Valley. With guidance differing on timing. Instability remains unknown as a nighttime arrive would be more stable than an daytime arrive, but regardless of time of arrive, this system currently appears to have a lot of wind energy, increasing the severe potential. For now, it's something to keep an eye one.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 709 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

With the sun up, area fog will begin to dissipate. Most of the day will remain under VFR conditions until showers and thunderstorms begin to push into the region from the west after 0Z. At first ceilings and visibilities will remain in VFR levels, but into the night, reductions are expected as more widespread heavier thunderstorms arrive.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.