textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will be possible today as a cold front pushes through the region. Much of the day will be dry.

* Up and down temperatures this week; however, temperatures will be slightly below normal overall.

* A chance for scattered showers and storms is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe weather is unlikely, and rainfall amounts should be light (< 0.25") in most areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A deep upper level trough is over Ontario early this morning and will gradually translate across eastern Canada over the next couple of days. A 994 mb sfc low is analyzed over western Quebec, with a trailing cold front extending SW through central IL/IN. Skies remain mostly clear at this hour over southern IN and central KY, but plenty of mid-level clouds are noted in the vicinity of the frontal boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN. An area of showers and even an isolated storm are progressing southeast across southern IL in an area of stronger low-level convergence along the front.

The cold front is forecast to sink southeast fairly quickly through southern IN early this morning, bringing increasing clouds and perhaps a brief shower. The upstream showers are likely to diminish with time as they move southeast. Moisture return and availability ahead of this frontal passage is quite limited. Aloft, synoptic scale ascent is very weak until late tonight when an upper level trough approaches from the NW. Thus, this cold front will sink southeast through the area mainly dry today. A few spotty showers will be possible in central KY this afternoon, but coverage looks to be pretty limited.

Moisture deepens from SW to NE across south-central KY tonight ahead of an upper level trough. Light showers will likely expand in coverage late tonight into early Monday, especially southeast of a Morgantown to Richmond line.

Highs today will likely top out in the low to mid 70s in many areas, with south-central KY seeing upper 70s to near 80. Northerly low- level flow will pull cooler air into the region tonight, and Monday morning lows will range from the mid 40s to low 50s. The upper level trough axis swings over the region on Monday as sfc high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect a gradual clearing trend Monday morning, with mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Monday Night - Wednesday Night...

Cool high pressure builds southeast across the Ohio Valley Monday night, bringing us our coolest night of this forecast period. Lows in the low to mid 40s will be common Tuesday morning, with upper 30s possible in our coolest sheltered areas.

A WAA regime develops quickly on Tuesday ahead of a wave of low pressure over the Upper Midwest. SW flow will help afternoon temperatures rebound into the mid 70s. The low pressure system rotates southeast over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, dragging a cold front through the forecast area. There is no significant influx of moisture ahead of this frontal passage, with PW values only peaking near 0.9-1.0 inch (40th-50th percentile of model climatology). At least scattered showers look possible, with rainfall amounts still expected to be less than 0.25" in most locations. Breezy NW flow will bring another shot of cool air behind the cold front, with temperatures dropping into the 40s early Thursday.

Thursday - Next Weekend...

Temperatures remain below normal through Thursday, but high pressure overhead will result in fair weather and signal the beginning of a warming trend. Upper level ridging appears likely to shift eastward across the MS Valley late in the week, with shortwave disturbances forecast to lift across the Plains. Increasing SW low-level flow should advect much warmer air into the region heading into next weekend. While highs around 70 look possible on Thursday, highs on Friday should be closer to 80. Forecast confidence is increasing on the warming trend continuing into next weekend, but LREF members are split on precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

All terminals are experiencing VFR conditions this afternoon, though there are some mid-level clouds streaming over a few cu developments. Dry weather is expected through the afternoon, though a gradual wind shift will take place as a weak cold front passes through. By tonight, slightly better rain chances linger behind the front, but those chances are only for BWG and RGA between 06-12z. Otherwise, expect VFR to continue, with wind shifting around to a N wind tonight and NE by tomorrow.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.