textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A reprieve from rainfall comes Friday and Saturday before the next round of widespread rain returns Sunday. A few strong storms are possible during this time.

* A somewhat unsettled pattern is expected through early to mid week with temperatures slightly below normal and off and on shower and storm chances possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Weather conditions are much quieter this morning compared to 24 hours ago, and that is because the cold front has finally passed all the way through the area. We are in a drier post-frontal environment now, but still seeing some isolated patches of dense fog this morning. Our grounds are still well saturated after the recent heavy rainfall, and with sfc winds nearly calm, and skycover gradually clearing, these factors all support some fog development continuing this morning.

Dry weather is expected for today, with mostly sunny skycover as sfc high pressure builds across the Midwest. Temperatures for today will peak in the upper 70s and low 80s, with dewpoints upper 50s and low 60s. Those temps and dewpoints will certainly make for a really nice day, especially for this time of year.

Sfc high pressure becomes situated directly over the area on Saturday, keeping us mostly dry for the first half of the weekend. Max temps will be a touch warmer with mostly low to mid 80s, but should still be rather nice with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Some CAMs pick up on some very light isolated showers moving across IN Saturday afternoon, driven by a subtle mid-level wave and weak vorticity. Our profile will be somewhat dry, so kept a dry forecast going, but maybe a few sprinkles may sneak into counties north of the Ohio River.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Saturday Night - Monday Night

Lingering high pressure continues to keep Saturday night ahead of returning rain chances for Sunday. A shortwave trough will eject out of the Plains into the region Sunday afternoon and evening. An associated surface low pressure will pass over northern IN and the southern Great Lakes. A wave of showers and storms will begin to move east into western KY Sunday afternoon. Rain showers can be expected to produce some healthily downpours, especially west of I-65 as there is a 45-50% chance of PWATs greater than 2". Additionally, 1000 - 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE may be present along with deep layer shear values 30-40 kts. There will be a potential for organized convection and strong updrafts with this environment, leading to possible severe threats. The area with the best chance for the strongest storms would be west of I-65 as this is where all ingredients overlap well. SPC currently has a marginal risk outlook for day 3 covering the entire forecast area.

Once this round of showers move through, another wave will move in from the west Monday afternoon and evening. The cold front associated with the low pressure, will become quasi-stationary over the region. Zonal flow aloft will allow for additional shortwaves to move over. As showers and storms continue to train over the same areas, monitoring will need to continue for a potential hydro concern. Areas within the central and south central KY have the potential to see close to 3" of rain over a 48 hour period.

Tuesday - Thursday

A broad troughing through the north part of the CONUS will move east and has the potential to produce scattered rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. These can be expected to be light and brief. Maximum temperatures will begin to slightly start to warm through the second half of the week into the mid 80s. Another round of precip is to return Wednesday night into Thursday as a surface low in the Great Lakes region will a trailing cold front will push through the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Some patchy fog is possible for another hour or so, but confidence is low on any vis impacts. Dry weather will continue for the TAF period, along with VFR flight categories and FEW-SCT upper level cloud coverage. Winds will be from the NW today, and could gust up to 15-20kts this afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.