textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Friday, drier conditions with the return of sunshine. Temperatures will be well above normal and could break records. Friday afternoon.

* Saturday, a cold front brings another round of showers/storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/

Issued at 402 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

As a low level jet continues to push northeast of the region across Ohio, the bulk of precipitation over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky is coming to an end. This has allowed us to drop the Flood Watch. The warm front is now well north of the CWA. Surface high pressure over the Southeast continues to funnel Gulf moisture north into the Lower Ohio Valley. Precipitable water values are expected to remain between 1.3-1.5", but with less forcing, remaining showers are expected to be scattered to isolated in nature. Activity is expected to decrease overnight under mostly cloudy skies. Warm air advection will keep lows limited to the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tomorrow, ahead of an approaching cold front, an increasing pressure gradient will lead to south winds between 10-20 mph. This warm air advection will help to lift temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s as remaining showers push off to the north and skies begin clearing from the south. Expecting a mostly dry day with increasing sunshine.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 402 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Saturday, with a sharply amplified upper trough dropping south around a closed low over southern Arizona, southwest flow will push a surface low northeast through the Great Lakes region. The low's trailing north-northeast to south-southwest oriented cold front will push through the Ozarks towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Current model guidance has a line of storms arriving during the late morning through early afternoon. Model soundings show MLCAPE values around 500-1200 J/kg with higher instability earlier in the day when near surface lapse rates are more stable and better lapse rates later in the day. Deep layer 0-6 km shear looks to range from 30-40 knots. Besides thunder some stronger storms could produce hail and gusty winds. South winds ahead of the front will likely gust to 20-25 mph, pushing highs into the 70s.

Behind the front, high pressure keeps dry conditions across the CWA through much of Monday before a shortwave interacting with southern moisture pushes precipitation chances back north into southern Kentucky Monday.

By Tuesday and Wednesday (timing slightly varied by model), a surface low dragging a cold front will slide east near the Great Lakes region. The very west to east oriented cold front will drag a line of convection through the CWA. This could knock highs in the 70s down into the 50s for Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Brief MVFR vis in SHRA will remain possible at SDF and LEX in the first 3 hrs of this TAF period. Otherwise, ceilings appear likely to remain VFR. Thicker low to mid level cloud cover will gradually SCT out from south to north through mid-morning, which may allow a brief window for fog development early this morning. HNB has the best chance at LIFR/dense fog, given they are already saturated with clouds beginning to thin. Winds will remain light out of the SE through sunrise.

Once patchy fog dissipates, Friday will be VFR with increasing southerly winds. SSW winds will increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Mainly dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower does look possible this evening.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.