textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning and gusty winds.

* Seasonable temperatures (mid-upper 80s) and daily chances (20-40%) for afternoon-evening thunderstorms are forecast throughout the upcoming work week. The risk for severe weather appears low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today, a positively tilted upper trough is sitting over the Lower Ohio Valley, but the jet stream remains well off to the north. We continue to lack wind energy, but high levels of moisture remain over the southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Higher precipitable water values between 1.8-2" remain south of Interstate 64 with 1.6- 1.8" to the north. This afternoon and evening, parts of central Kentucky could even reach over 2". These are very high levels of moisture and the region has held on to the moisture for some time at this point. Diurnal warming will once again increase afternoon and evening instability to between 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg. For the most part, model soundings show long skinny CAPE, so there could be some gusty winds with developed showers and thunderstorms, but given the high moisture and limited winds, flooding continues to be more of a concern for any area that sees a thunderstorm parked over them. Highs are expected to reach into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, the upper trough remains overhead. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose heating, but with pockets of moisture from earlier rain, patchy fog will become possible again as temperatures fall. Lows are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Wednesday and Thursday, the positively tilted upper trough is expected to get picked up by zonal flow as it pushes off to the east. Diurnally driven daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, but the lack of shear should keep convection sub-severe. Little will change in the amount of moisture over the region, so slow moving convection could still cause isolated flooding concerns. Winds start off light on Wednesday, but as a surface low begins approaching from the west, increasing the pressure gradient, WAA will increase on Thursday. This could help bump Thursday's high temperatures a degree or two higher than Wednesday's highs already in the mid to upper 80s.

By Thursday night into Friday, global models continue to show a messy west to east oriented cold front dropping south through the Ohio Valley. The front will likely provide increased forcing for widespread showers and thunderstorms into at least the beginning of the weekend, but by early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures near 90 degrees.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 205 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The pattern over the last couple of days continues. Earlier rain showers has added moisture to the ground, leading to additional chances for fog formation this morning. Later in the period, diurnal heating is expected to cause afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. This could affect some area TAF sites. Heavy rainfall could drop visibilities for a short time.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.