textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A few flurries are possible this morning across the KY Bluegrass region. Little to no impacts are expected at this time.

* Milder temperatures and mostly dry weather expected for Monday and Tuesday.

* Active weather pattern returns by mid-week with precipitation chances arriving Tuesday Night and continuing off and on into next weekend. Precipitation should initially be rain, though the chance for wintry precipitation does increase later in the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

The band of light snow has set up to the east of the Bluegrass region, currently moving through the SW corner of OH barely clipping KY. With low level moisture and cold temperatures, a chance for flurries can not be ruled out this morning. Temperatures are currently ranging in the high teens in the northern part of the area, while the southern border is in the high 20s. Surface winds are expected to remain 5-10kts out of the east through this morning and into tonight. A band of mid-level stratus are moving SE through the Ohio Valley currently and will remain partially cloudy through this afternoon. There have been no significant changes in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 343 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

This morning, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals mid- level clouds streaming across the region from NW to SE within the broader NW flow pattern. Most cloud bases are in the range of 12-15k ft at this hour, with model soundings showing a dry layer of air in the lowest 10k ft. Temperatures have been fairly steady or have even rose a few degrees over the past few hours as the clouds have moved in, and should remain fairly steady through the remainder of the overnight hours.

The main feature of interest during the short term forecast period will be a NW-SE oriented band of snow which is currently over northern IN and is expected to move to the SE later this morning. This band is oriented along the low-mid level baroclinic zone, with colder temperatures to the NE (warmer to the SW). There is a subtle trough in the mid-level height field moving across the Midwest this morning, which is providing enough cross-gradient flow to support mid-level frontogenesis, and it is along this FGEN axis that the snow band should transit later today. The latest hi-res guidance keeps the FGEN axis just to the NE of our southeast IN and KY Bluegrass counties, with the bulk of the snow remaining NE of our CWA. Sounding analysis supports this as well, with deeper saturation and better DGZ saturation remaining just outside of the KY Bluegrass. Allowing for some error in the placement of aforementioned features, we've trended PoPs down across our northeast counties for this morning, though we'll keep a mention of flurries in the forecast through midday. Can't rule out given 15:1 ratios that a trace of liquid equivalent could put down a few tenths of snow across areas like Harrison, Nicholas, and Bourbon County; however, this appears to be a low probability. Plan to let the SPS expire at 10Z unless there's a SW shift in model guidance/obs.

Otherwise, while there could be a few breaks in the overcast, overall, more clouds than sun is expected across the region today. With surface high pressure centered over southern ON, we should see light easterly flow near the surface, which should limit warming. Nevertheless, think we can warm a couple degrees above highs on Saturday. Across northern KY and southern IN, expect highs generally between 30-35, while areas with less snow cover in southern KY should be able to make it into the upper 30s and low-to-mid 40s.

Late tonight into Monday, the upper ridge axis over the central CONUS today will spread toward the Ohio Valley, flattening out as it spreads to the east. At the surface, high pressure will shift toward the east coast, though the nearest sfc low should remain well to the NW of the region through Monday night. The most likely outcome Sunday night into Monday would feature mostly clear skies with milder temperatures expected on Monday, particularly across snow- free southern KY.

However, there is a lower-probability scenario which could have considerable impacts on temperatures Sunday night into Monday and some minor travel impacts Monday morning. Late Sunday night, there should be moderate 850-700 mb moist isentropic lift, with moisture gradually sinking toward the surface Monday morning. However, there is quite a bit of spread in how much moisture there will be. Some guidance like the NAM features ample moisture, leading to the development of clouds and even a few areas of light precipitation, with soundings being marginal for rain or freezing rain. On the other hand, most guidance, including the global models and the HRRR/RAP, are not nearly as saturated, and only show a few clouds within this warm advection regime. The cloudier solutions would lead to considerably cooler temperatures on Monday, and there is a decent amount of spread in the temperature guidance over our area. While this is a less likely outcome, it's something to keep an eye on over the next 24-36 hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 343 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Monday Night - Wednesday...

At the beginning of the week, there will be a fairly complex upper level flow pattern across North America which will lower predictability and forecast confidence later in the week. Split flow between the polar and subtropical jet streams will be in place over the western half of North America during the first half of the week as a cutoff low meanders over northern Mexico. By Wednesday, the majority of the energy with this system will be ingested into the polar jet and will move across the south central CONUS. Monday night into Tuesday morning, upper ridging should still be in control over our area, resulting in continued warming temperatures and dry conditions.

As a weak cold front sinks into the region Tuesday afternoon, the above-mentioned upper energy will begin to interact with this boundary, also bringing increasing moisture into the region. As these two features interact, there should be enough combined lift and moisture for precipitation, very likely in the form of rain, to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There has been a trend in recent guidance for the cold front to sink farther to the south before the upper level energy arrives, leading to the heaviest rainfall axis ending up across southern KY and into the Tennessee Valley. At this time, most likely precipitation amounts Tuesday night into Wednesday range from a few hundredths along the I-64 corridor to around 0.30" along the KY/TN border.

Wednesday Night - Early Next Weekend...

For the second half of the week into early next weekend, our forecast focus will be on the shifts in the front/baroclinic zone referenced above which will be in the vicinity of our area throughout this period. Upper troughing along the eastern seaboard is favored to amplify Wednesday into Wednesday night, with sfc high pressure moving over the Great Lakes, shoving the front to the south of the area. This should give us at least a brief break in precipitation chances, likely for Wednesday night into Thursday, though confidence in this timing is only medium. Later in the week, new upper disturbances are favored to eject across the central CONUS, again interacting with the baroclinic zone somewhere over the eastern half of the US. Here are the three camps of solutions for how the Valentine's Day time period evolves:

1) Front is hung up over the Ohio Valley: This would lead to another chance for widespread rain for Friday into the weekend, with relatively mild temperatures. Favored by GFS.

2) Front is able to sink a bit to the south of the Ohio Valley: We'd still be close enough to the moisture to get precipitation later in the week, but with better cold air in place, the probability of wintry precipitation would be greater. Favored by ECMWF (it should be noted that wintry p-type probabilities in the EPS have risen over the past few runs).

3) Front sinks south into the TN Valley. End of the week is mostly if not all dry. Favored by GEM.

While confidence in which of these solutions occurs is still low, in general, the end of the week into next weekend looks to be relatively active across the region. Temperatures are likely to trend downward through Friday, with a warming trend favored for next weekend as the upper trough to our east starts to eject out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the current forecast period, with light east winds generally between 6-12 kt expected today. Mid-level cloud cover will continue to stream across area terminals, with cloud bases gradually lowering from 10-12k ft now to around 4-6k ft by Monday morning. There is greater uncertainty in the forecast late tonight into tomorrow morning as some lower clouds and moisture could make it into the area; however, this is a low probability at this time. Winds should decrease slightly, but remain mainly easterly tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.