textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and warm conditions will continue through Friday. Afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range each day.

* The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring widespread rainfall and gusts up to 30 mph over the weekend. Most areas will receive between 0.75" and 1.5" of rainfall, though localized areas may receive up to 3 inches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

*** Tonight through Friday Night ***

Warm and dry conditions will continue through the end of the work week as surface high pressure remain over the region. Relative humidity is expected to drop again today as dry air above the surface is being mixed down. Tonight temperatures will cool into the low 50s across the forecast area. Winds will begin to shift to a SE wind as the center of the high pressure continues east. Slightly warmer temperatures for Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s, and nighttime temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.

*** Saturday through Mid Next Week ***

Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall in the Gulf coast Friday evening/night. This system is expected to take north through Mississippi and Alabama, and eventually making its way up to our region this weekend.

As the upper ridge continues east, troughing to the west will phase together with the low pressure system. Much needed moisture will be brought into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf as the remnants of Isaias track north. The associated rain shield is expected to move in to the southern KY counties by mid-day Saturday. The main threats with the system will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds with onset. Given how dry the area has been, this rainfall should be more beneficial and poses a low flooding threat. OPF values are ranging from 0.5" to 1.5" with the high amounts through central KY. Localized areas of 3"+ are still possible (20% chance), which will become more certain post landfall. This highest wind gusts are expected late Saturday evening. Southern KY could see wind gusts 25-35 mph, while the rest of the forecast area would be lower as the system weakens. Chances for severe weather remain low as instability will be at a minimal with onset. Guidance is consist with little to no surface based CAPE across the area limited to available energy for convection to form.

Sunday into Monday, the remainder of the system will phase in with the jet stream and push out to the east. By Monday, synoptic ridging will begin to build back into the region. This will bring drier conditions and clearer skies back for the start of the week. Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 80s and nighttime lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 108 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the current forecast period as high pressure moves across the region this afternoon into tonight. Winds should back from the N/NE to the N/NW this afternoon before veering to the E/SE overnight. High clouds will begin to push into the area from the south on Friday, with 5-10 kt E/SE winds expected during the day.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.