textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for Dubois County to Cumberland County and areas west until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT this evening. Temperatures in the low 90s combined with very high humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index values of 105 - 110.

* Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible this morning into early afternoon, mainly east of I-65.

* Dry and slightly cooler through mid to late week. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The relief from this most recent round of heat and oppressive humidity is finally here as a cold front extending from a NE CONUS surface low is moving southward over central Kentucky. The change in conditions will not be immediate this afternoon and evening as places behind the front are still experiencing dew points in the mid-to-upper 70s and heat indices in the upper 90s/low 100s. Dew points will slowly lower into the 60s this evening and tonight, with overnight temperatures following suit with low in the mid-to- upper 60s.

A few showers and an isolated storm have developed along the cold front near and east of I-75, and will move southward with the front. Wile there is ample instability out ahead of the front (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg), the wind shear profile is not very favorable with the core of the low and mid-level jet further eastward in eastern Kentucky. A few additional showers and a storm or two can still develop later this afternoon and evening, but the concern for strong- to-severe storms is very low for us.

Surface high pressure will build in over the Midwest and Ohio Valley starting tonight, lasting through the end of the workweek. Surface winds will quickly decrease this evening, remaining fairly calm and out of the north through Thursday. With the calm winds in place tonight, there is the potential for light patchy fog to develop, especially east of I-65. The surface high will also keep us dry, making for a nice stretch of weather over the next few days. Afternoon highs will be around the low-to-mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures climbing slightly higher into the mid-to- upper 80s on Friday. Overnight temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday night, will be pleasant with lows in the low 60s and some isolated locations in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A shortwave trough moving over the western/central CONUS upper ridge makes its way towards our region from the northwest by Friday night. The upper ridge becomes more amplified while the shortwave trough/eastern CONUS upper trough becomes closed off over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This feature will linger through the remainder of the forecast period, providing increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms. Rainfall from this system will be modest, with LREF precipitation accumulations from Friday night through Tuesday currently are in the 0.9-1.3" range. Cloud cover from the low should keep temperatures slightly below average to start August, with afternoon highs slowly increasing from the low 80s on Saturday to the mid-to-upper 80s on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few showers will move near RGA over the next couple hours, though coverage was not widespread enough to include as a prevailing condition of SHRA. Gusty conditions from the NNW this afternoon will become calm after sunset this evening, lasting through midday Wednesday. Some patchy fog could develop tonight near RGA and BWG, though confidence was too low to include in the TAF.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>028-061>063-070>076-081. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ083-089.