textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dense fog is likely across much of the area tonight into Monday morning, with visibilities of 1/4 mile or less possible. Dense Fog Advisory in effect tonight.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early this coming week, with temperatures flirting with records Wednesday and Thursday.

* Active weather pattern returns for the second half of the week. Showers and storms appear increasingly likely, with rain chances potentially lingering into next weekend. Strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out, but the details are still uncertain.

UPDATE

Issued at 756 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Nighttime satellite imagery shows the low stratus deck slowly drifting south over the region, with clearing mainly north of the Ohio River in our area at this time. We'll continue to see gradual clearing from north to south tonight. With sfc high pressure building in from the west, resulting in nearly calm winds overnight, combined with continued clearing and saturated soils, there is a strong signal for widespread dense fog. The one main concern continues to be how these low clouds could impact dense fog formation, mainly across the Lake Cumberland area. Otherwise, there is fairly good confidence in reduced vis and dense fog tomorrow morning for a majority of the forecast area.

Main update this evening has been to the vis grids, which the latest internal hi-res guidance has slightly shifted a bit more south than the earlier runs. Because of this, and given the higher confidence, there was great collaboration on getting a Dense Fog Advisory out early this evening. Our advisory will be in effect for 05-15z.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 332 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

The last of the rain is pushing to the south and east of the area this afternoon as 1004 mb sfc low pressure continues to pivot across the Gulf states. Even though most of the accumulating precipitation has moved out of the area, regional obs continue to show patches of mist and drizzle, especially across Kentucky. These patches of mist and drizzle should continue to work to the southeast over the next few hours, with completely dry conditions expected across the area after sunset. Drier air near the surface is beginning to work into the area from the NW, with low stratus beginning to scatter across central IL and IN. These breaks in the clouds should begin to move into southern IN over the next few hours, with clouds gradually scattering from NW to SE between now and tomorrow morning.

Winds are fairly steady around 5-10 mph out of the N/NE across the area this afternoon. As the sfc low pulls away from the region tonight, the pressure gradient will weaken, leading to light and variable winds after midnight which will become calm in many locations Monday morning. Where skies are able to clear this evening and early tonight, temperatures should cool into the mid-to-upper 30s, with an inversion setting up in the boundary layer Monday morning. It is unlikely that we will get enough sfc heating this afternoon to mix out moisture near the ground, so this combination of light winds and a near-sfc inversion will favor a classic dense fog setup across much of the region. The main uncertainty is how far to the southeast stratus will be able to clear tonight, with areas south of the Kentucky Parkways less likely to see dense fog Monday morning. In coordination with surrounding offices, we decided not to issue a dense fog advisory yet, but it is very likely that one will be needed across much of the area tomorrow morning. Temperatures should fall into the mid-to-upper 30s for lows tonight, so it will fortunately be a bit too mild for freezing fog concerns.

On Monday, sfc high pressure is expected to move across the area as upper ridging spreads across the central CONUS. With winds remaining light and variable during the morning hours, fog may linger in spots until late morning as sfc heating is finally able to mix dry air down to the ground. Currently calling for highs in the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s across the area, but there is a potential for temperatures to end up cooler than expected if fog lingers until around midday. Otherwise, dry weather, light winds, and an overall pleasant day is expected on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 332 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday Night - Wednesday Night...

Upper ridging will spread east of the Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday, causing sfc high pressure to shift toward the Carolinas during this period. While broad upper-level troughing is expected to remain fixed along the west coast of North America through most if not all of the extended forecast period, a series of shortwaves on the eastern edge of the mean longwave trough are expected to eject across the northern CONUS starting on Tuesday and continuing through much of the rest of the week. This will allow for an area of low pressure/heights to develop over the northern Plains and upper Midwest by Tuesday, placing the Ohio Valley into deep SW flow, a pattern favorable for warm temperatures. We'll see a steady increase in temperatures over the first half of the week, with highs reaching the upper 60s and low 70s in many areas by Wednesday.

The first of the above-mentioned series of troughs should move across the Dakotas and into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system is still expected to be a glancing blow for the Ohio Valley, and moisture return across KY and southern IN will be limited. While isolated showers will be possible on Wednesday (especially north of I-64), the main impact from this system should be breezy conditions, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely.

Thursday - Saturday Night...

A secondary shortwave is expected to dig slightly farther to the south across the central Plains and mid-/upper-MS Valley Thursday into Friday. As this disturbance interacts with a washed out frontal boundary left by the earlier shortwave, the front should lift back to the north with a renewed surge of warmth and moisture from the south on Thursday. Thursday now looks more likely to be the warmest day of the week, with widespread 70s favored for high temperatures. As this system occludes Thursday night into Friday, it is expected to lift sharply to the northeast, and it is uncertain how far east its associated cold front will make it. As this disturbance passes, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Long-range severe guidance continues to show a low-medium potential for strong/severe storms Thursday night into Friday, with instability looking like the main limiting factor.

Because the Thursday night/Friday system is expected to occlude before crossing the region, it leaves the door open for additional disturbances to bring chances for rain, and possibly storms Friday into the first part of next weekend. Ensembles vary on exactly how long the rain/storm threat lingers, though the chance for additional rounds of rain Friday into Saturday has increased over the past 24 hours. Eventually, it is likely that we will transition into a more seasonable/drier pattern, with less active weather favored by late next weekend into the first half of the following week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

We are beginning to see the low stratus deck slowly slide east of the area this evening, with improving flight categories to our north and west. However, this clearing will open the door for dense fog development tonight and early tomorrow, especially for the I-64 terminals. Expect LIFR or VLIFR restrictions as dense fog settles in between 09-15z. Less confidence in flight impacts to BWG and RGA as the low stratus deck will linger later into the night over those areas, which could limit how dense the fog gets. Otherwise, expect all terminals to return to VFR after the late morning hours.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>072. IN...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.