textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Unsettled weather pattern expected to continue today and into Saturday with scattered showers and storms moving through the region.

* Threat of severe weather remains low, but storms will be capable of torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and intense/frequent lightning. Slow moving storms and high PWATs may lead to scattered reports of flash flooding.

* Late weekend and into early next week looks to see a brief reprieve from the active weather pattern. However we expect unsettled weather to from mid-late week with clusters of storms moving through the region and producing excessive rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Early morning satellite and surface observations show partly cloudy skies across the region. A southerly flow has kept temperatures milder than last night with readings in the low-mid 70s. Within the southerly flow, a small scale perturbation aloft will move just north of the region this morning. This feature has been generating some small clusters of convection from southern IL northeastward into southern Indiana. This activity should continue to move on off to the northeast. Brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning will be the main threats with this activity. Some uncertainty remains on if there will be some additional development south of the river this morning. Majority of the CAM guidance keeps our region dry, though the NAM3K remains a little more aggressive. For now will keep some slight chance PoPs aligned along/north of the Parkways through sunrise. Down across southern KY, dry weather is expected through sunrise with some patchy fog, especially in areas that saw appreciable rainfall Thursday afternoon/evening. Temperatures will remain generally in the lower to middle 70s.

For today and tonight, upper level trough axis over the Midwest will slowly push eastward and push a surface boundary toward the region. Under a southwest flow and partly sunny skies, we'll see temperatures this afternoon warm into the upper 80s to the very low 90s. With those highs and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, we'll see MLCAPE values rise into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Low-level lapse rates look to steepen in the 7-7.5 C/km range though wind shear values look to remain quite weak. PWATs will remain high with values of 1.8-2 inches being common. Best chances of convection this afternoon would likely be along the aforementioned surface boundary dropping into our northwest. Latest ensemble PoPs would suggest 30-50% coverage in the north with 15-25% coverage in the south. Based on model soundings, the risk of severe weather remains low or isolated in this case. Torrential rainfall, gusty winds of 35-40 mph (localized 45-50 mph), and frequent lightning will be the main threats with any of the storms. The combination of high PWAT values and slow storm motions could lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding.

Overall threat of convection looks to diminish somewhat this evening across the north. However, convective outflows may lead to some additional development overnight across central Kentucky. However, CAMs continue to show a fair amount of spread with the overall mesoscale setup for the overnight. So plan on just carrying some isolated PoP chances for now and re-evaluate on the 07/12Z guidance suite. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 70s.

For Saturday and into Saturday night, upper trough axis will remain in place across the region. Aforementioned surface boundary will likely be in the vicinity of the LMK CWA and will serve as a focus for renewed convective development Saturday afternoon/evening. With the mid-level trough advancing slowly eastward, the highest chances of storms for Saturday look to be across the eastern and southern parts of the forecast area. Model soundings show ample instability available for organized convection. However, wind shear will remain weak, so convection will be more pulse like in nature. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will continue to be the main threats. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the upper 80s with lows Saturday night dropping back into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

As for QPF amounts, basin averages of a quarter to three quarters of an inch will be possible with convection. However, localized higher amounts of 2-3 inches with some isolated amounts of up to 4 inches can't be ruled out. Again, some localized flooding will be possible, especially in areas that see slow moving storms or training of storms over the same areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

In the extended portion of the forecast, the latest data continues to show the upper level pattern deamplifying a bit as we head into the late weekend and into early next week. The upper trough axis from the weekend is expected to shift eastward while a more zonal flow aloft develops across the CONUS. The main belt of westerlies will shift back to the north with the main MCS track running from the southern High Plains eastward into the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. Locally, we'll see temperatures ramp back up into the lower 90s for the Sunday through Tuesday period with mainly dry conditions on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday afternoon we could see some diurnally driven pulse convection develop across the area. However, overall coverage looks to be pretty isolated at best.

By mid-late week, the pattern is forecast to amplify with ridging developing out across the western US and downstream troughing developing across the east. This will set up the Ohio Valley into a northwest flow regime with embedded perturbations pushing through within the mean flow aloft. The net result here will be episodic bouts of convection (possible MCSs) moving through the region. Some of these bouts of convection may produce strong/severe storms. Repeated bouts of convection training across the region could result in excessive rainfall and hydro issues as we move through mid-late week time frame. Temperatures will likely be a bit cooler than in the earlier part of the week, given the northwest flow and expected bouts of convection. Daytime highs will generally be in the middle 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals today. Some patchy fog will be seen at KHNB but will mix out quickly after sunrise. Surface winds have already veered to the southwest and will gradually increase in speed toward local noon. Some gusts of 18-20kts will be possible this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will drop into the region from the north this afternoon/eve and may kick off another round of scattered showers/storms. Best chances of storms will be at HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA where we'll continue prob30 groups for this forecast period.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.