textproduct: Louisville
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Isolated showers and storms this afternoon over southern Kentucky.
* Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with small chances for afternoon rain and storms each day.
* Heat indices will range from 98-103 Wednesday through the end of the week and into the weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Low stratus from this morning has mostly lifted and thinned this afternoon. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible over the southeastern third of the region through the evening hours.
Ridging and high pressure will continue to overspread the region in the short term. This will allow temperatures to increase a bit each day. A weak cutoff low will remain in the southeastern CONUS which will draw moisture northward. Dew points will remain in the low 70s. Given the subsidence over the region, showers and storm chances will remain low, but ample moisture and lingering vorticity will allow low PoPs (<10%) to remain in the forecast.
Highs will peak in the upper 80s and low 90s, which will bring peak heat indices into the upper 90s and low 100s. With plenty of sun and very light winds, this will feel hot and muggy.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
By late Thursday into Friday, troughing over eastern Canada will drop south and send a backdoor cold front into the Ohio Valley. This will bring increased showers and storm chances to the region. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s for this time.
Hottest days of this week look to be Thursday and Friday.
The backdoor cold front looks to make it through the region late this weekend and into early next week, which will provide a slight relief from heat.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Low stratus has mostly lifted and thinned over the region this afternoon. Skies will continue to lift and thin through the evening, before becoming clear. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue and become light overnight. Over the southern Kentucky and eastern Kentucky, low stratus is possible again and VIS may become reduced. This is hinted in the TAFs and more clarity may be found in the next TAF issuance.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None. IN...None.
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