textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dense fog has developed over the western two-thirds of the region. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 14Z.

* Dry and mild conditions are expected today through Morning morning.

* Severe Weather potential for Monday night into Tuesday morning as a low pressure system moves through the region. The greatest severe threat from storms remains to our west but this will be monitored as the event draws nearer.

* Active weather pattern continues through much of next week, with additional chances for rain/storms Tuesday night-Wednesday morning and again late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A combination of recent rainfall, calm-light winds, and clearing low clouds has allowed for dense fog to develop over the western two- thirds of the region. For this reason, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through the morning hours. Patchy dense fog will be possible east of the advisory, but coverage will likely be sparse enough to not extend the current advisory east.

The cold front is continuing to push through the region at this hour and is expected to exit to the east around 13Z. Scattered showers will linger over the Lake Cumberland region through the mid-morning hours.

We will see ample mixing today, thus mild dry air mix down will be expected this afternoon. This will bring RH into the 30% range. Temperatures will be in the mid-upper 70s this afternoon with light winds, allowing for a pleasant Saturday.

Tonight, upper ridging will build over the region. Dry and mostly clear conditions are expected overnight. Stratus will begin to work SW into the Bluegrass during the pre-dawn hours. Light winds will veer to the northeast by Sunday morning. Lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Dry conditions will continue Sunday and Sunday night as ridging aloft remains over the region. Increased heights will allow high temperatures to increase to the upper 70s and touching 80. With light winds, Sunday will be a pleasant day as well. Sunday night, winds will veer to the southeast ahead of an approaching wave.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

===== Monday - Tuesday Morning =====

Monday morning begins quiet with morning lows in the low to upper 50s and increasing high level clouds moving in from the west. We're anticipating a strong shortwave to move quickly to our northwest later on Monday. Confidence is building on this disturbance moving well to our north based on jet dynamics of a left exit region carrying this shortwave well away from our area. However, being in the warm sector of this approaching shortwave, temperatures will be boosted by SW flow and at least mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with gusty winds as a jet moves overhead.

As this shortwave approaches close by and then moves to our north, the best instability and shear may avoid our area. Additionally, storms firing up from this shortwave may not push into our area until late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. This means that even with the expected severe threat in the midwest, our saving grace could be the positioning and timing of the shortwave, where daytime instability wanes with overnight activity. That being said, latest AI Model Learning trends indicate a severe potential, especially along and west of the I-65 corridor, even noting the latest severe outlook from the SPC. There will be plenty of shear to support at least a main line of storms with the cold front, but should the storms move in overnight, the best severe potential should be waning during a Monday night/Tuesday morning timeframe. Given the latest guidance, gusty to damaging winds seems to the greatest threat as any storms that move through could tap into a strong jet overhead.

Despite the high uncertainty in the severe level threat for Monday night's storms, there will at least be some rain to help alleviate the drought conditions throughout the state. Right now, rainfall timing seems to be just after sunset, continuing throughout the night until the front sweeps through Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts are right-skewed depending on the strength of these storms as they approach, generally remaining 0.5-1" (50-75%), however totals closer to an 1.5" (10-20%) or more are possible should storms move in earlier Monday night. Eventually, rain and storms clear sometime Tuesday morning, with mostly dry weather for the day expected by the afternoon. Tuesdays highs will be slightly cooler behind the cold front in the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds slowly build again late in the day on Tuesday ahead of another possible round of rain Wednesday.

===== Wednesday - Friday =====

After Tuesday's clearing, the synoptic set up is trending towards general troughing over the northeastern US, with broad troughing to near zonal flow over our area for much of the rest of the week. Another disturbance forming in the lee of the Rockies approaching from our southwest will bring in another chance of rain by late morning. For now, it is a little early to estimate the severe potential, though latest trends is that some storms are possible in the afternoon, with most severe potential remaining well to our southwest. Highs on Wednesday depend on the timing of the rainfall arriving, but should range in the low to upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday are trending cooler still behind the disturbance on Wednesday. Cooler air from the general troughing pattern will move in and drop highs into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. With this synoptic setup, any shortwave disturbances moving across the country has the potential to drop rainfall for our area. Meaning Friday another disturbance could approach and bring some rain showers during the day. Highs will be cooler still in the mid 60s. Cooler than average temperatures is the overall trend heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Scattered shows continue to move through the Bluegrass and I-75 corridor this morning. Within the next few hours, precip will exit to the east and clouds will continue to push east. As skies clear and winds are light, dense fog has developed over western and central Kentucky and southern Indiana. This fog is expected to persist through the dawn hours and slowly spread east into the I-65 corridor. Within 2 hours of sunrise, winds will pick up out of the northwest and north around 5-8kts and fog will dissipate. CIGs will steadily raise and then remain mostly clear through the end of the TAF period. Saturday night, light winds will veer to the northeast.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023>035-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>076. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.