textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cool and dry weather continues through Friday night.

* Storm system will work into the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. An initial burst of snow or a rain/snow mix is possible, especially across southern IN and northern KY. Light snow accumulations are likely in southern IN.

* Impacts from wintry weather Saturday/Saturday night should be minimized by marginal ground/air temperatures. Precipitation should change to all rain by Saturday night.

* Increasing chance of wintry weather is expected Monday night into Tuesday, with better chances for accumulating impactful snow across KY.

UPDATE

Issued at 1052 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Mostly sunny skies across southern IN and central KY this morning have helped temperatures to warm into the upper 20s and low 30s as of 16Z. High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning will cross the region later today, bringing us continued sunny skies and light and variable winds. Without any return flow to boost temperatures, highs this afternoon should only make it into the mid- to-upper 30s and low 40s, roughly 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

The forecast is on track at this time, with minor updates made to near-term T/Td/Wind trends.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 429 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

It will be a cold start to the day as temperatures this morning are already in the low to mid 20s across the area under clear skies. An area of strong sfc high pressure stretching from the Dakotas into the Mid Mississippi Valley, will continue to build in over the region today. This will give us a dry, mostly sunny but another chilly day. Temperatures remain well below normal with afternoon temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s with a few locations hitting 40 along the KY/TN border. While winds will be lighter than the past few days, there ill be enough of a sfc pressure gradient to keep winds between 5-15 mph, making it feel like it is in the upper 20s to low 30s at times.

The next system starts to take shape coming off the Rockies and over western KS as a shortwave trough comes out of the Intermountain West tonight. Slight upper ridging begins to develop over the Ohio Valley ahead of this developing system as sfc high works pushes to our east overnight. We will start off with mostly clear skies and light winds but high clouds will be on the increase later during the overnight with light winds shifting and becoming more southerly in the early morning hours of Saturday. Even with increasing clouds, there should be enough radiational cooling early in the overnight for temperatures to fall into the low 20s and even a few upper teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 429 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Deepening upper trough and associated sfc low over will be located and centered across eastern KS and western MO to start the day Saturday. Ahead of the system warm moist air will advect northward over the shallow cold air in place over the Ohio Valley. Initially, the first wave of precipitation associated with this system will fall through the colder, drier layer near the surface. This initial precipitation will evaporate through sublimation before reaching the surface, cooling and saturating the atmosphere over the area. Once the deep moisture advection overcomes the near surface dry layer, some precipitation along and north of the Ohio River could fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. Confidence is growing as the short range hi- res guidance continues to show this scenario of a brief period of snow late Saturday afternoon/early evening mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor in southern IN. Timing over the last couple of runs shows this initial strong surge of precipitation ahead of a very strong LLJ to arrive sometime after 18z to around 00z. While impacts from this look to be minimal, considering higher travel volume from people returning from the Thanksgiving Holiday and shoppers out during the day Saturday, a slushy coating to near an inch is expected from the Ohio River up to our most northern tier of counties in southern IN. Based on the current data, don't see the need for a Winter Weather Advisory at this time but one could be needed with later forecast packages.

Saturday night into Sunday, warm air advection will win out over the area scouring out the low-level cold layer, changing all the precipitation over to rain as temperatures warm to near 40 and hold in the upper 30s to near 40 overnight. Rain showers look to hold on for most of Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will quickly push through Sunday morning bringing another shot of cold air. Temperatures will start out in the upper 30s/low 40s Sunday morning then fall to the low 30s by Sunday evening and into the low mid 20s by Monday morning. Monday looks to be dry but mostly cloudy as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Highs will once again be chilly ranging from the low/mid 30s for the northern half of the CWA to the upper 30s to near 40s to the south.

The next impactful system starts to arrive Monday night into Tuesday. This continues to look like a more favorable setup for accumulating snow for part of the CWA. Medium range guidance is continue to come into agreement developing a sfc low over the western Gulf and then lifting it to the northeast through the TN Valley as it interacts with deepening shortwave trough axis swinging through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Accumulating snow in the range of around 1 to possibly 3 inches could be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. While confidence is growing that parts of the CWA will see impactful snowfall, confidence is still not high on exact location and who sees how much. Some of the things to watch will be where snow falls with the first system Saturday night into Sunday. Depending on how far south that snow falls, this could help reinforce snow further south allowing for accumulating snow also further south. Keep in mind, that given the vertical temperatures profiles with this system, precipitation types will also range from snow, to wintry mix of sleet, snow and even possible frz rain and rain. While specific details remain unanswered this far out, we will continue to message the possible impacts from this system as we get closer.

Behind the Monday night/Tuesday system, drier weather is expected for the middle of next week, though the persistence of the split flow upper pattern may lead to additional disturbances during the second half of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal, as suggested by the CPC 6-10 day outlook.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 656 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

High pressure building in from the west will keep flight categories VFR through the forecast period. Winds will be out of the west around 10kts but not as strong as the past few days. A developing system over KS tonight will increase high clouds overnight

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.