textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold weather is expected to continue tonight. A narrow band of light snow may bring some minor accumulations to portions of the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Sunday morning.

* Temperatures will continue to moderate Sunday through Tuesday with mainly dry weather expected.

* Active weather pattern returns by mid-week with rain chances arriving Tuesday Night and continuing through the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 936 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Another cold and quiet evening across the region as many spots have already dipped into the upper teens and low 20s over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. South central KY is still holding onto the upper 20s for now. Then you have the KY Mesonet site in northern Harrison county KY putting on a clinic on how to decouple. They currently sit at 8 above. With the dew point currently at 3, they could go a bit lower before the better upper sky cover moves in after 06z. Either way, another cold night in store with increasing clouds past Midnight.

The initial wave of clouds are expected to be higher and mostly above 15K feet, so no precipitation expected from these. However, as we move to around sunrise and through Sunday morning better chances for some light snow are possible across our NE CWA as an 8-10 K foot mid deck develops with mid level frontogenesis setting up. Current forecast already has some chances for light snow east of a Frankfort to Richmond, KY line, with efficient snow ratios likely approaching 15:1 in a cold airmass. This is a scenario where everything that falls will accumulate, and like the range from a dusting to as much as a half an inch toward Nicholas county KY. Hi-res guidance mostly keeps the best frontogenetical banding to the north and east of our CWA, so higher totals expected there, but looking at soundings/time heights do think that we can see some light amounts where already drawn given the better snow ratios and temps conducive for accumulations. The limiting factors to this being more like a few flurries would be the dry air below 8 k feet, and saturation mostly below the DGZ. Otherwise, ratios might be more like 20:1. Forecast is on track, and plan to continue the SPS, although may trim a tier off the western edge of current message.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations show sunny skies across the region. Temperatures were still cold though compared to normals for early February. Temperatures were generally in the lower 20s over the Bluegrass region. Out toward the I-65 corridor temperatures had warmed into the upper 20s and the freezing line was generally located from Huntingburg, Indiana to Burkesville, KY. For the remainder of the afternoon, no significant weather is expected. We'll see highs on the day in the next hour with temps falling a couple degrees by evening. Winds have been rather gusty early this afternoon, but winds should continue to diminish through the afternoon and into the evening.

For tonight, we'll see a few high clouds move into the region from the northwest. Overnight lows will exhibit a gradient with lows in the upper single digits to low teens over the Bluegrass region. In the I-65 corridor, temps will cool to around 20 with lower 20s out toward the I-165 area.

On Sunday, upper trough axis will continue to slide to the east. On the back side of this trough, an area of localized mid-level frontogenesis located within the right entrance region of the jet looks to force a narrow but potentially impactful band of light snow. Most of the synoptic scale models keep the snowband east of our region. However, the higher resolution models like the NAM and WRF solutions have trended more westward with this band impacting our Bluegrass region. While confidence is high that some sort of narrow snowband will develop, confidence in the placement or westward extent of this band remains low. For now, have coordinated with surrounding offices and will issue a Special Weather Statement covering this event. If this snowband move through our Bluegrass region an quick coating to an inch of snow could occur. There will be a sharp cutoff on the western edge of this snow band. However, we have given ourselves a little wiggle room here and kept the statement area as far west as Frankfort over to Lexington. However, feel that best probabilities of impactful snow will likely remain north and east of the Lexington Metro.

For the remainder of the area, dry conditions are expected with a slight bump in temperatures. Highs look to range from the lower 30s in the Bluegrass region to the mid-upper 30s over in the I-65 corridor. Warmest readings will be down across southern areas with lower 40s expected. As expected, guidance continues to trend downward with high temperatures as the models deal with how much snow/ice pack we still have. Lows Sunday night will exhibit yet another gradient with readings in the upper teens to the lower 20s over the Bluegrass with mid-upper 20s elsewhere. Good melting will likely occur on Sunday but residual meltwater will likely freeze Sunday night yielding additional areas of black ice on untreated surfaces.

One thing that we need to watch for is some weak isentropic lift on the warm surge coming in Sunday night. NAM3K has been rather aggressive with light precipitation occurring across southwest IN and central KY late Sunday night. Thermal profiles are near critical values such that a wintry mix could occur. The NAM3K is pretty much all alone here as the other mesoscale models do not have much of anything. Something to watch carefully over the next 24 hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 345 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Monday and Tuesday...

Overall, not much change to the forecast thinking during this time frame. The large scale pattern will be undergoing a shift as troughing moves off the eastern US coast with a broad low-amplitude ridge axis forming over the central/southern US. Within this pattern, we'll continue to see a gradual warm up in temperatures, though guidance continues to show a more muted warmup with each successive run. Highs on Monday look to warm into the lower-mid 40s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. South of the I-64 corridor we should see temps warm into the upper 40s, perhaps to near 50 in spots. The warmest readings will be down across southern KY (south of the Cumberland Parkway) where temps should reach the upper 50s. Lows Monday night will drop into the lower to middle 30s.

Tuesday should start off sunny with a continued moderation in temperatures. Highs here are still a bit uncertain because we'll need to see how much snow/ice we'll melt on Monday. Right now, current thinking is that we'll see lower 50s north of I-64 with upper 50s between I-64 and the Cumberland Parkway. South of the Cumberland Parkway, highs in the lower 60s look attainable.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...

Split flow pattern looks to develop over the western CONUS by late Tuesday with a low-amplitude shortwave trough axis coming through Texas and the southern Plains. Strong northerly branch of the jet may keep this shortwave trough axis from gaining too much latitude as it comes toward the Ohio Valley. However, plenty of clouds and some light rain still look to occur across the region Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday.

Confidence on the Thursday through Saturday portion of the forecast really decreases due to uncertainties with the split flow pattern. Split flow patterns are handled rather poorly by numerical models in general. It does appear that a low amplitude ridge will maintain itself across the lower MS valley. Cluster analysis continues to show the uncertainties based on the troughs on each US coast. It does appear that some sort of baroclinic zone will remain in close proximity to the Ohio Valley with a few perturbations moving through. Depending on the baroclinic boundary location, we could still see some wintry chances in the late week/weekend period if that baroclinic boundary shifts south. The opposite is also true that if it shifts north, more rain showers could be in our picture as we head into Valentine's Day weekend.

Highs temps during this period will be in the 40s/50s for Wednesday, with cooler temps expected for Thursday-Saturday. Generally lower 40s in the north with upper 40s in the south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF cycle with a light E wind tonight, becoming a steady ESE wind on Sunday. We have a few upper clouds streaming overhead now, and these will gradually thicken and lower through the overnight. By mid to late Sunday morning, these clouds become a broken mid deck beneath extensive upper sky cover as well. Still not expecting bases below 8 K feet, so shouldn't have any real impact on the terminals.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.