textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Today, precipitation ends by midday.

* Warmer and sunnier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

* Additional systems are expected to bring periods of rain early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 340 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

This morning, as a shortwave pushes southeast through the region, it will push a surface low east through the Tennessee Valley, bringing an end to remaining showers over south central Kentucky. At the same time, a line of precipitation pushing east through southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, ahead of the shortwave, will also push off to the east as they fade. Some of our northern communities near Madison, Indiana could see some snowflakes falling with this line, but due to warm ground temperatures, no issue are expected.

By midday, the CWA is expected to be dry with skies clearing from the northwest. High pressure, centered over central Illinois, will keep northeast winds in place for most of the afternoon, limiting afternoon highs to the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Tonight, as surface high pressure slides directly over the CWA, clear skies and calm to light winds will lead to strong radiative cooling. Temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s by Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 340 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

On Friday morning, weak cooling behind a front that will have moved through will drop morning temps to the low to mid 30s with clear skies. Though general troughing in the upper to mid levels will be present, some weak ridging centered over the east coast will pump in some warmer air from the southwest. This will be aided by a strong surface low moving north of the Great Lakes bringing in warmer air with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. With warmer air in place, and some weak WAA at the surface, lows on Friday will be above normal in the upper 30s and low 40s. On Saturday, the overall pattern begins to shift as a front of cooler air from Canada moves south to north in the evening. Deepening on the timing of the front, highs may be cooler in northern areas in the upper 50s to low 60s while southern areas may reach 70, but highs should still be above normal though cooling off into the upper 30s in the overnight hours.

Eventually, this front slows and stalls somewhere over the Ohio River valley and guidance begins to introduce uncertainty. This front draped generally over KY will act as a pathway for future disturbances. For now, PoPs remain low for the first disturbance that may have enough moisture for a few rain mixed with snow showers across the Ohio River. QPF is very low, only up to 0.2" in isolated areas. However, this stalled out front will not move much into early next week where on Monday there could be a quick moving low with more available moisture to move through on Monday morning. Guidance is split on the timing and position of this stalled front, suggesting either a rain event, or a mixed precip event, with marginally cold enough temperatures to support frozen precip at the event onset. This will be a quick moving low pressure and is expected to leave by early Tuesday morning. This requires more monitoring to nail down where this front is set up. For now, know that rain chances are increasing for Monday. WAA returns on Tuesday with more possible rain showers later in the day. High temperatures look to be warmer than normal again for mid week as this messy and busy weather pattern may linger into later in the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 658 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

As a shortwave pushes southeast through southern Indiana and central Kentucky, showers will continue this morning. This is bringing low ceilings and reduced visibilities to area TAF sites. The quick moving system will help to see improvement over the next few hours. Skies will begin clearing from the northwest later this morning. This afternoon, mostly clear skies will return to all area TAF sites.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.