textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s this morning. The cold temperatures combined with a steady wind will yield minimum wind chills in the upper single digits to low teens for most.

* Patchy black ice may linger through the Thursday morning commute.

* A light snow is expected Friday morning across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. A dusting to a half an inch could fall and may cause slick spots for the Friday morning commute.

* More snow showers and perhaps some snow squalls are possible again Friday night into Saturday. Slightly higher accumulations may occur, especially east of I-65 where a coating to as much as 2" may occur.

* Drier conditions but cold expected late weekend through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 253 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

The bulk of the lingering snow showers have ended across the area, although can still see some light returns off the CVG TDWR in our far NE CWA where a 925-850mb moisture fetch off Lake Michigan still resides. Expect some lingering flurries are still possible up in that area early this morning. The other concern that seems to be improving is the patchy slick spots that developed with spotty snow showers and rapidly falling temps earlier this evening. Have an SPS out for Patchy Black Ice through the morning commute across our northern CWA, but overall a browse through webcams seems to show improvement. Will continue to monitor.

Otherwise focus shifts to the cold temperatures as the mercury has fallen into the teens and low 20s with wind still chugging along pretty good. As a result, we'll be seeing minimum wind chills in the upper single digits and low teens this morning.

This lead shortwave trough axis passes through with surface high pressure beginning to build in today. This will result in a cold, dry, and mostly partly sunny day. Temps will struggle under the steady cold advection, and highs are only expected to reach into the upper 20s and low 30s across the area. The first part of tonight will be dry, however we'll start to see upper sky cover move back into the area ahead of the next approaching system. Temps will fall back into the upper teens and low 20s, setting the stage for anything that falls toward dawn to lightly accumulate. After 06z, expect light snow chances to overspread northern KY and southern IN. This snowfall will be battling some pretty dry surface to 4-5 k feet air, but nevertheless do expect a dusting to as much as a half inch possible in our NW quadrant of the CWA. It is possible that a short- fused Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for around the 09-15z time period Friday morning. Even though amounts will be low, impact to the morning commute would occur with any light snowfall. See long term for more info.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 253 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Friday - Saturday Night...

Expect to have some light snow falling along and north of the I-64 corridor ahead of a shortwave trough Friday morning. This snow will be falling out of a 4-5k foot mid deck with pretty dry air below it. Regardless, looks like enough to squeeze out a trace to a few hundredths of liquid equivalent across our NW quadrant of the CWA. SLRs will likely be around 12-13:1 for that time period, with surface/road temps favorable and primed for light accums. Could see a dusting to a half inch at most, but the problem with this system is timing and potential impacts on the Friday AM commute. Snow onset at the heart of the commute is never a good thing regardless of small amounts so will be focusing on how to message this system. May have to go with a short fused impact based Winter Weather Advisory Friday AM for areas along and north of I-64 and along and west of I- 65. Probably won't do it on this issuance, but will need to be discussed how best to handle.

Outside of the morning light snow for some, think we'll mostly just see some patches of flurries then sprinkles through Friday with overall mostly dry conditions. Temps will actually briefly trend milder into the 40s on a steady warm advection component through the day.

Another shortwave rotates through the parent eastern CONUS trough later Friday night into Saturday with a cold front undercutting at the surface. The low level thermal profile will gradually start to feature steepening low level lapse rates with deeper moisture also pooling ahead of the shortwave trough axis. A widespread light precipitation shield is expected to develop mainly along and south of the Ohio River as a modest low level jet responds beneath the exit region of a mid level impulse. The end result should be a be a swath of light snow along with embedded pockets of heavier snow showers or squalls thanks to the steepening low level lapse rates. The snow squall potential doesn't quite look as good as it did 24 hours ago, but still won't rule it out given the lapse rates and potential for a little bit of low level instability. The overall trend with this system has gone up for amounts and right now it seems that amounts could range from a coating to a couple inches for areas mainly east of I-65. This is a system that may end up needing a Winter Weather Advisory. Not as impactful of timing given the weekend, but amounts could be a bit higher.

Deeper moisture pushes out with the upper trough axis rotating through on Saturday evening/night. This will shut snowfall down, but the cold temps will pour back in. Sunday morning lows should be in the low to mid teens with minimum wind chills likely in the 0 to 10 above range.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Looks to be a cold and dry stretch of weather for the late weekend into early next week. After Sunday highs only in the 20s, Monday will only improve slightly with some temps back near freezing across southern KY. One final cold day on Tuesday with temps at or below freezing once again before some moderation looks to take hold mid week. Lows in the teens are expected on Monday and Wednesday morning, with some single digits and low teens on Tuesday morning for the coldest day. Minimum wind chills each morning will likely feature single digits to low teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites with steady to occasionally gusty NW winds holding on for much of this forecast cycle. LEX will be the closest to hanging onto a marginal VFR/MVFR ceiling, but it looks like most of the cloud cover may stay just to the NE of the terminal, so will start this forecast out optimistic. Otherwise, look for mostly sunny skies on Thursday with steady to occasionally gusty WNW winds. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will slacken and go SW to SSW between 5 and 10 mph. Some upper sky cover begins to stream into the area late evening into the overnight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.