textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Heat Advisory continues for all counties in the forecast area through Friday.

* Daily afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with even some locations potentially reaching 100 by Thursday. Heat index values will be over 100 and up to 107.

* Warm overnight temps in the mid to upper 70s will provide little relief during the nighttime hours. Practice heat safety by remaining hydrated and limit time outdoors if possible.

* A weak cold front could bring scattered showers and storms to the area late Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Another hot day across the region with temps peaking in the mid to upper 90s. Satellite imagery shows a dense cu field has developed due to strong heating, and the motion of the clouds makes it visible to see the sfc high centered to our southeast. For tonight, dry weather will continue with clear skycover and light winds. Overnight temps will give little relief with lows only in the mid to upper 70s.

Hot weather continues again for tomorrow with another day of temps in the upper 90s. The HREF has a 50% chance of Louisville exceeding 98F tomorrow afternoon. It is possible tomorrow could be the hottest day of not just the week, but of 2026 so far. As such, the Heat Advisory continues through tomorrow and into Friday. The HRRR has suggested an isolated shower or storm may pop up across the area tomorrow afternoon, but mainly expect the area to remain dry tomorrow. Decided to add in an isolated chance given the strong instability expected (SBCAPE over 1500 J/kg), but weak flow through the column (and weak shear as a result) will keep any pop-ups slow moving and short-lived.

Dry weather will again be expected Thursday night, with another warm night with temps remaining in the mid to upper 70s. It's possible that given how warm the overnight lows will be, some warm min temp records may be in jeopardy.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

===== Friday through the Weekend =====

The upper ridge will continue to dominate the central US on Friday, but will begin to see signs of it building back to the west as two upper lows on the opposite ends of the country squeeze and amplify the ridge. By the weekend, the upper pattern will look somewhat like an omega block pattern, but that will only be for a brief time.

SPC has a Day 3 marginal risk across our area for Friday, but confidence in severe weaker risk remains quite low. We'll see a slight increase in moisture ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front Friday afternoon, and with strong heating still in place, we'll likely end up seeing steeper lapse rates and favorable destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms could develop, though any precip would likely be rather sparse and brief in nature due to very weak shear profiles. Overall, not entirely impressed with the marginal risk, but added an isolated chance for some in the forecast for Friday. The heat Advisory continues through Friday as temps in the upper 90s are expected.

Daily max temps in the 90s are expected through the weekend as we remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge. However, the aforementioned backdoor cold front appears to pass through the area on Saturday, and should offer additional isolated to scattered showers and storms through the day. We'll still be dealing with strong destabilization due to the heating, however overall shear profiles remain rather weak and less favorable for organized storms.

===== Labor Day and into Next Week =====

Dry weather is expected for Labor Day and into the first half of next week as the upper ridge begins to shift east with time again. Temps are forecast to be in the lower 90s next week with dewpoints in the upper 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Our ever stagnant weather pattern and never changing weather continues to keep VFR flight conditions with clear skies through the overnight and early morning thanks to strong sfc high pressure over the region.

Once the sun rises and we quickly start to heat up expect very similar conditions to what we've seen the past several days. A scattered Cu field developing with winds increasing and at times turning variable but mostly out of the west south-west. Some gusts of 15 to 20kts are possible. There is a chance that a few spots could see an isolated shower or storm but the odds are generally low. Once the sun sets and we lose direct daytime heating, skies will clear and winds will turn light.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>043- 045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>079- 083-084-089>092.