textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* A low pressure system will bring rain to the region through Sunday afternoon. Most locations should receive 0.50-1", though a corridor of 1.50-2" will be possible near the KY/TN border. There is a low chance of minor flooding issues in areas which receive the heaviest rainfall.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early this coming week, with temperatures approaching records by Wednesday.

* Active weather pattern returns for the second half of the week. We'll have to watch the Thursday afternoon-Friday morning period for a chance for strong storms, though confidence is still low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 349 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mostly cloudy, with a few breaks in the mid- and upper-level overcast noted at this hour. Modest WAA from light southerly winds has helped temperatures warm into the 50s across southern IN and north central KY, with south central KY in the upper 50s and low 60s at this hour. Although regional composite reflectivity does show light returns across SW IN at this hour, regional obs and model soundings suggest that dry air below 10k ft AGL is causing most if not all of this to evaporate before reaching the ground.

The rest of this afternoon into this evening, moisture will continue to advect into the region ahead of a coupled sfc/upper low moving across the southern Plains. As deeper saturation overspreads the region from west to east, scattered light rain showers should begin between sunset this evening and the early morning hours on Sunday. While all of southern IN and central KY will see rain tonight into Sunday, hi-res guidance is highlighting two areas of enhanced rainfall rates. The first one is expected across southern and central IN tonight into early Sunday morning, and is being supported by a band of mid-level frontogenesis. The main limiting factor on rain amounts with this band will be relatively lower moisture, as PW values are only expected to approach 1" this far north. Rainfall totals in this secondary maximum should approach 1".

The second area of heavier rainfall rates moves into southern KY from the south during the early-to-mid morning hours on Sunday, and will have rich moisture to work with as PW values are expected to climb to 1.1-1.25" as a 40-45 kt LLJ noses in from the south. This band of heavy rainfall appears to be supported by a deformation axis which will set up from west-to-east on the north side of the mid- level low track. Exactly where this band sets up could still vary by 30-50 miles, but within the axis of heavier rainfall, localized amounts of 1.5-2" will be possible. In the 12Z data, both the HREF and REFS LPMM QPF data showed a heavier swath of rain in south central KY, though some individual models do have this axis farther south in TN. If rainfall amounts do begin to approach 2", there would be increasing concern for nuisance/minor flooding. To highlight this potential, a collaborated Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall has been added for southern KY for tomorrow.

In between the two axes of heavier rainfall, there will be a relative minimum in rainfall amounts, with most areas in this zone receiving between 0.50-1". Dry air on the NW side of the system should begin to wrap into the area by late Sunday morning, with rain chances ending from west to east during the afternoon hours. Depending on how quickly skies clear Sunday evening, there will be a decent setup for fog Sunday night into Sunday morning, so that's another thing we'll continue to monitor over the next 24-36 hours.

With all the moisture in the area, diurnal temperature ranges should remain fairly suppressed through Sunday afternoon. Tonight, with low clouds and E/SE winds in the area, expect temperatures only to fall into the mid-to-upper 40s in most areas. On Sunday, winds will continue to back to the NE and eventually to the north, with low clouds also keeping temperatures down. Highs are only expected to warm into the upper 40s and low-to-mid 50s. With clearing Sunday night, lows should be able to fall back into the mid-to-upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 349 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Monday - Wednesday Night...

The first half of the upcoming week should feature dry conditions and warming temperatures as sfc high pressure sets up over the Carolinas by Tuesday. With deep upper troughing expected to persist along the west coast of North America, smaller shortwaves will begin to eject across the northern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night, with associated sfc low pressure systems developing ahead of these upper waves. This should put the Ohio Valley in a deep SW flow pattern, especially by the second half of the day on Tuesday. While there will likely be more sunshine on Monday, stronger WAA on Tuesday should cause temperatures to trend upward as we head toward the middle of the week. Highs should warm from the upper 50s and low-to- mid 60s on Monday to 60s across the area on Tuesday. Some locations in southern KY may touch 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

By Tuesday evening, a plume of elevated IVT is expected to spread across the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest as a sfc low ejects from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. We'll be just on the southern edge of the better moisture return, and it's usually hard to bet against the southeast ridge, so it still looks more likely than not that we remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday. If anywhere did see some showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday, areas north of I-64 would have the greatest chance. Otherwise, the main feature of this period will be very mild temperatures and gusty winds. Current forecast highs Wednesday are within a few degrees of records at KBWG, with highs across the area ranging from the mid-60s to the low 70s. As far as the winds are concerned, there is a modest signal in EFI data (around 0.75) for anomalously strong wind gusts, with medium-to-high confidence in maximum wind gusts above 30 mph during the day on Wednesday.

Thursday - Early Next Weekend...

While the mid-week system will begin to erode the ridging across the southeast US, another shortwave is expected to follow later Thursday into Friday morning. This disturbance would be favored to bring more substantial impacts to our area, with a chance for rain, including thunderstorms, looking increasingly likely during this period. As a sfc low develops to our NW on Thursday, WAA and moisture advection should help "reload" the atmosphere, with some medium-range progs raising sfc Tds into the mid-to-upper 50s. As the sfc low tracks across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night, a cold front is expected to move across the Ohio Valley, with showers and storms developing along and ahead of the front. Current AI/ML convective hazards guidance does show a modest signal for severe weather Thursday into Thursday night, though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system.

The Thursday/Thursday night system is expected to take a deeper cut out of the SE US ridge, though exactly how much it erodes varies between ensemble members. If the late week system is strong enough, Friday into Saturday would be drier and cooler; however, a weaker system could lead to additional rain chances into early next weekend. Eventually, the ensemble consensus favors a return to drier and cooler conditions as we head deeper into next weekend, with temperatures returning to more normal levels for mid-to-late February.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening, VFR conditions are expected as high clouds steadily build downward. Winds should remain generally between 5-10 kt, varying between SE and S/SW direction. This evening, ceilings will continue to drop as scattered light rain showers begin to move in from the west. Initially, rain should be light enough to avoid significant VIS reductions, with the heavier rain and MVFR/possible IFR VIS not expected to arrive until between 09-18Z Sunday. Ceilings will continue to fall overnight tonight, and should end up in the IFR/low MVFR range by Sunday morning. Winds are expected to back to the E/SE overnight and eventually to the NE by the end of the current forecast period, with speeds generally remaining 10 kt or less. A 40- 45 kt LLJ may result in a period of LLWS at BWG tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.