textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather continues through Friday, with cool nights and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly in river valleys.

* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not expected until Halloween weekend, with medium-high confidence (70- 80%) in dry weather on Halloween. More active weather returns in early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

It is another seasonably cool morning across the area as the typical urban/rural and ridge/valley splits in temperatures are observed at obs sites across central KY and southern IN. Satellite imagery shows thin high clouds continuing to encroach from the west; however, these shouldn't affect cooling much if at all through sunrise. Over the next several hours, fog is likely to develop once again in the deep river valleys, as well as other sheltered rural areas. Temperatures around sunrise should range from the upper 30s in the coldest valleys to the upper 40s on the ridgelines and in city centers.

For most if not all of the upcoming week, a fairly stable and pleasant weather pattern is expected to continue across the region. Upper level ridging over the lower Miss. Valley and sfc high pressure extending from the TN Valley up into the northeast US will continue to bring dry weather as the storm track remains well to our north and west. Mid- and upper-level cloud cover will steadily increase over the region through Wednesday; however, dry air will remain in place in the lowest 20k feet of the atmosphere. Wednesday into Thursday, a weak upper-level shortwave is expected to slide to the NW of the region. However, this disturbance will have little moisture with it, and should bring little more than a slightly stronger SW breeze as it passes. Behind this wave, upper-level ridging will briefly build across the southeast US late week before additional troughs approach the region Halloween weekend.

Temperatures will remain pretty close to persistence each day this week, though we may add a few degrees to highs by the end of the week. In general, we'll be in the mid 70s for highs most of the week, trending toward the upper 70s by Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will also remain fairly steady in the 40s for much of the week, with slightly milder lows mid-week thanks to increased cloud cover.

The continued absence of rainfall will lead to increasing precipitation departures, with drought conditions expected to expand over the next week. The prevalent dry weather would cause us to be susceptible to enhanced fire weather conditions if other meteorological variables (e.g., fuels, winds, RH) were also favorable. Fortunately, we've seen good nighttime recovery of RH values during this dry stretch, which has helped to limit curing of smaller fuels so far. Additionally, winds have remained light, and are generally expected to remain light over the next 5-7 days, with the minor exception as mentioned above for Wed/Thurs. So for the immediate future, the fire danger across the area is modest, but is worth monitoring as we head into November.

Friday into Saturday, a shortwave over the southern Plains is expected to eject to the northeast, bringing a better fetch of moisture into the Ohio Valley. However, this disturbance is expected to get sheared apart by a digging trough across the western CONUS. As a result, the forcing with this system will be fairly meager by the time it reaches our area Saturday night into Sunday, limiting precipitation amounts. At this time, about 80% of ensemble members keep things dry through the evening on Saturday, with precipitation chances increasing overnight into Sunday morning. Only about 30% of members feature rain totals over 0.25" for at least a portion of the area, so not expecting much from this first system.

As we head into the first week of November, models are struggling to resolve what will be a fairly complex split flow pattern. Some solutions feature more phasing of the subtropical/polar stream waves, leading to a stronger system in the 11/2-4 time period. On the other hand, other solutions feature a continuation of the split/disjointed flow pattern, resulting in a succession of weaker systems. Forecast confidence is fairly low, aside from the general trend toward a more dynamic setup across the central and eastern US.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 658 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF cycle, with the exception of some brief morning fog possible at BWG and HNB. Latest surface analysis reveals widespread high pressure with current satellite showing some high based cirrus advecting in from the SW, which will result in SCT to BKN sky conditions throughout the day. Winds will remain light, veering from SE to WSW later this morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.