textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty showers and storms are possible through this evening. A few of the storms could become strong. Straight line wind gusts are the main hazard with any strong storms.

* Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s. Several warm minimum records are in jeopardy for today/tonight 4/3.

* Showers and storms return Saturday, some of which may become severe. Cool, dry, and calm weather expected for early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing across the CWA at this hour, and have produced some fairly impressive gusts. SDF gusted to 49 MPH last hour with passage. The main reason is dry low level air, presenting as an inverted V on soundings. Cloud bases aren't getting below 7 K feet, and with the low level jet still up around 40-45 knots, a good bit of this momentum can get down to the surface with showers. Any gusts stronger than the gradient winds will be short-lived.

Otherwise, look for a mostly dry day however there will be scattered showers and perhaps a few storms around through much of the morning and afternoon as a frontal boundary stalls to our NW, and then starts to lift north later tonight in response to the next area of low pressure ejecting out of the Plains. Forecast soundings do show areas north of I-64 getting at least modestly unstable today up closer to the stalled frontal boundary. However, deep layer shear will be weakening through the day as the low level jet core lifts NE. The end result should be an overall lack of organization for updrafts, and would expect more of a pulse type storm mode with anything that is able to fire up nearer the stalled front. HRRR forecast soundings show unfavorable mid level lapse rates to the point where thunder may not even be in play, however the 3km NAM is moderately unstable and would support pulse storms. SPC placed our northern tier of counties in a Marginal Risk to account for an isolated wind/hail event, but overall not real impressed with severe chances for today.

Given more expected convective activity across the northern half of the CWA, temps across the south are expected to rise into the mid 80s. In fact, the record high temperature at BWG is in jeopardy today after the record warm min for 4/2 fell yesterday. Elsewhere, look for upper 70s and low 80s for highs today.

Mild conditions continue into tonight as the stalled frontal boundary lifts well to the north and we get established in another warm sector of a surface low ejecting out of the central Plains to the Midwest. Expect we'll stay dry through the overnight, however widespread showers and storms will be ongoing upstream, and will approach by Saturday morning. Gusty and mild conditions overnight will likely yield several record warm mins to fall for 4/3. In fact, all the climate sites except SDF are forecast to see new record warm mins for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Saturday...

Our area will be sandwiched between a potent central CONUS trough, and upper ridging off the mid Atlantic Coast to start Saturday. We should start out dry and firmly in the warm sector of a surface low moving through the Great Lakes region. However, expect widespread showers and storms to be ongoing upstream, and poised to enter our CWA ahead of the approaching cold front and upper trough axis. What may start out as a dry day at sunrise will turn into a widespread rain event. Do expect plenty of forcing in the right entrance region of a 100 knot upper jet, with low level jetting on the order of 30- 35 knots responding beneath. This will provide enough moisture transport for PWATs surging into the 1.25" - 1.5" range, which is near the top end of climatology for this time of year. As a result, expecting a widespread .5" to 1" for most, with some localized amounts over 1" possible. Overall, the QPF trend has gone up a bit, but nothing too alarming at the moment as the overall system should stay progressive enough. For context on the higher end of the expected range, NBM probabilities of greater than 1" QPF are in the 50-75% range across southern IN, and in the 30-50% range across KY.

We'll have to continue to keep an eye on the potential for a few stronger storms, however much will depend on the timing of when showers and storms push through, and our ability to destabilize on Saturday. Overall, looks like it would mainly be a localized wind threat as the deep layer shear profile looks pretty unidirectional, and somewhat marginal from a speed shear component (25-35 knots). Should arrival be slow enough, some modest moderate instability could develop, with more robust updrafts a bit more likely to take advantage of the slightly be better deep layer shear. As a result, expect that a Marginal Risk isn't out of the question for our area, and may see this expand a bit more into the area from our current far NE CWA. There is a pretty broad Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall as well, however not too concerned about any flooding risks given the current progressive nature of the system. The high PWATs combined with tall storm potential if we destabilize could increase that concern a bit for some localized minor issues, but for now, plan to just monitor trends.

Saturday Night - Thursday...

The cold front and upper trough axis push through Saturday evening into Saturday night, shutting down precipitation chances from W to E. Looks like enough cool air comes in behind the front to negate the chance of breaking every record warm min temp for Saturday 4/4. However, it could be close if timing is a bit slower so won't completely take that off the table yet.

Looks like a dry forecast starting Sunday, and lasting through at least early week, if not mid week too. Cooler Canadian high pressure will take hold of the region, with initial dry NW flow aloft. The upper flow pattern eventually transitions to a more zonal pattern through mid week, but still look benign of any notable features. So, the main story through the bulk of the long term will be cooler temperatures, with some frost or even brief freeze chances worth noting for some. After Sunday morning lows in the 40s, highs are only expected to recover to the upper 50s and low 60s for most. Colder nights then persist Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights with the best chances for some frost likely on Monday and Tuesday nights. We might even flirt with a brief freeze in the Bluegrass counties on Tuesday night. After highs in the low and mid 60s on Monday, highs Tuesday should only be in the 50s for most. We start to moderate thereafter, with values in the low to mid 70s by Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast cycle, although some other impacts will be noted. Seeing scattered showers pushing toward LEX/RGA, but should see an overall brief drying trend through mid morning. Additional scattered showers and perhaps some storms could then develop late morning through afternoon, but confidence isn't really high. Will continue to handle with Prob30s. Vis restrictions appear limited out of the higher cloud bases currently, but any late morning or afternoon convection would have a better chance at brief vis restrictions.

The stalled frontal boundary will begin to lift north tonight as another low pressure moves out of the Plains. We'll see a dry overnight, however widespread rainfall and a few storms are expected to arrive later Saturday.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.