textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered storms possible this evening in south- central Kentucky.

* Warm and dry on Friday with highs in the 80s.

* Strong cold front will bring widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region on Saturday. There remains a low-end risk of strong storms with this system. Much cooler air will arrive late Saturday and Sunday, with a patchy frost likely Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Conditions remain mainly dry this afternoon, but we do have a band of mostly light showers developing over the Bluegrass Region this afternoon. A band of broken lower clouds also stretches SW through the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions along a remnant convective outflow boundary. Differential heating and weak convergence will result in a narrow band of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, through 5 PM EDT before this activity pushes into eastern KY. Locally gusty winds are possible with any storms, but severe weather is unlikely.

Upstream, deep convection has developed across southern MO, where an upper level shortwave trough is interacting with richer low-level moisture and increasingly unstable airmass. This mid/upper level wave will pass east over the Lower OH Valley late this evening. A consensus of CAMs develops a cluster of convection southeast across western KY/TN this evening. The northern portion of this activity should move over portions of south-central KY shortly after 7 PM CDT this evening, but any thunderstorms should weaken with time due to waning instability. There is a low risk (5-10%) a strong thunderstorm could survive into the southwestern CWA, but if this occurs, locally strong wind gusts, small hail, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall would be possible.

After Midnight, dry weather is expected with clearing skies as upper level shortwave ridging noses in from the west. Winds will be light, with Friday morning lows in the mid/upper 50s.

Upper level ridging amplifies as it shifts over the eastern US Friday and Friday night. Upstream, an upper level trough will swing east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Sfc low pressure deepens northeast from the central Plains, reaching James Bay by 12Z Saturday. We'll remain dry and warm on Friday, with lingering ridging aloft and warm southerly low-level flow. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s, and a few spots may top out in the upper 80s.

Friday night, a long trailing cold front will push southeast through the Midwest and Mid-MS Valley. Rain chances begin to increase in southern IN by early Saturday morning (09-12Z) with the approaching cold front. Much of the night will be dry, with mild temps in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

===== Showers and Storms Saturday =====

A large scale upper level trough will continue east over the Midwest Saturday into Saturday night. We'll see increasing SW flow aloft on the southeastern flank of this trough. The sfc cold front will plunge southeast through the region during the daytime (12Z-00Z). Numerous showers with scattered embedded thunderstorms appear likely. Thickening cloud cover and the arrival of precipitation from NW to SE will likely limit sfc warming and overall destabilization on Saturday. Modest destabilization will limit the overall severe weather risk. Strong deep-layer SW winds will provide organization for any convective activity, which could promote isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any organized cells or line segments.

Winds are forecast to veer northwesterly Saturday evening in the wake of the cold front. Showery weather will be possible into the evening hours, with much cooler air streaming in from the NW. Temperatures are forecast to drop through the 50s during the evening hours, with low to mid 40s expected by early Sunday morning. Conditions dry out by Saturday night.

===== Cooler Early Next Week =====

Cool high pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday. Look for fair weather with highs in the 60s. Diminishing winds may allow for areas of frost late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Lows Monday morning are currently expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will gradually warm heading into the middle of next week due to rising heights aloft and low-level WAA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A round of rain and thunderstorms are currently moving into the Bowling Green area, with the main threat including gusty winds nearing 30kts. These storms are expected to weaken as they travel east. Otherwise, all other sites can expect some clearing skies through tonight with light (3-4kt) SW winds. Winds will slightly pick up tomorrow for HNB/BWG/SDF and begin to shift more southerly. VFR conditions remain through the day tomorrow with partly cloudy (10-25kft) skies. Tomorrow night, marginal LLWS can be possible (HNB/SDF) associated with the cold front moving into the region.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.