textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record heat... Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. * Increasing rain chances along with thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Severe threat remains low.

* Much cooler Weekend... Highs will fall into the 60s to even the upper 50s by Saturday.

* Possible first frost... Lows Sunday morning could fall into the 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

It will feel more like mid-summer than mid-October over the next couple of days thanks to upper ridging building a little further north and sfc high pressure slowly retreating off to the southeast. This will allow for strong south to southwesterly flow to continue to advect in warm air from the south as well as increase low-level moisture from the Gulf. Highs will top out into the in the low 90s to upper 80s tomorrow and could be close on Wednesday but increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching system will likely keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

As a sfc boundary approaches from the west and then slows over the Ohio Valley for the middle of the week, a surge of Gulf moisture will pool along the boundary increasing dew points into the mid/upper 60s tomorrow and into the low 70s on Wednesday. There seems to be a fair amount of model agreement that we could also see PWAT values over 2.00". While we will see a good surge of moisture and warmth ahead of the approaching boundary, current forecast has only about a quarter to around three-quarters of an inch with the highest amounts along the Ohio River into southern IN. LREF Ensemble currently has a 20 percent probability of getting an over an inch while NBM is around 40 percent.

As the boundary approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday we will see the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop. While we should have a fair amount of instability thanks to the warm and moist conditions ahead of the boundary, the best dynamics, lift and shear remain further to our north into central and northern IN and into Ohio. Some of the model profiles do suggest that if we get a thunderstorm an isolated strong gusty wind and heavy rainfall would be the main impacts. As of now, SPC Day 3 convective outlook keeps our area in general thunder.

Boundary will push through by Friday with cooler and drier weather filtering in behind. Friday looks to be mostly dry with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s along and north of the Ohio River to the low/mid 70s across central and southern KY. This will setup a dry yet cool weekend as the core of the cool air will be in place on Saturday, with highs struggling to get out of the 50s into the 60s and we could see lows drop into the 30s with a potential of our first frost Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Fog has cleared out along with the low stratus this afternoon and the rest of the forecast through the period is expected to remain VFR. Sfc high pressure is centered off to our southeast and will remain there through the TAF period. Circulation around the high will keep steady south to southwesterly winds over the area through the overnight and into tomorrow. This should help limit the development of any fog or low stratus tonight.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.