textproduct: Louisville

KEY MESSAGES

* Stubborn morning stratus and flurries possible through the first part of the morning.

* Chances for light snow across SE Indiana and north central Kentucky New Year's Eve night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 347 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Northwest flow aloft will continue to advect in cold air over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Persistent low stratus associated with moisture trapped under an 850mb inversion will likely lingering into the morning with some isolated flurries or light snow. This will not amount to much so little to no impacts are expected.

We will be mainly dry for today but clouds could linger later into the morning but current satellite imagery does show the back edge of the low stratus approaching the IL/IN border into far western KY. Mostly sunny skies are expected later this afternoon. While not as gusty as today, we could see winds out of the WNW gusting to 15-20 mph. Highs will be a little warmer, climbing into the low 30s.

The first in a series of shortwave troughs embedded in the northwest flow aloft will pass across the Great Lakes tonight. We will see mainly cloud skies overnight with the precipitation staying north into central and northern IN. With the clouds and a SW surface wind our lows tonight will be in the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 347 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A quasi-stationary upper low over Hudson Bay will keep a deep trough over the east coast as strong ridging over the western half of the CONUS continues placing the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley under persistent NW flow aloft. A series of upper level disturbances and clippers systems will move along the northwest flow through the Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley. Most of these disturbances will stay north keeping the area mainly dry with the best chance for part of the CWA seeing light snow would be New Year's Eve Night across the Bluegrass. Even with that said, Accumulation at most would be a dusting on grassy and elevated surfaces. PoPs are in the 20 to 30 percent range with 30-40 percent east of I-75 and north of I-64. The rest of the area will mainly see mostly cloudy skies for New Year's Eve into New Year's Day. Highs will be in the upper 30s/low 40s with lows into New Year's Day morning in the mid/upper 20s.

A system to our south could spread mainly rain showers across the southern half of the CWA Friday night into early Saturday but forecast trend as of the 00z run of the deterministic models continues to lean to a drier forecast for the weekend. For continuity will keep the mention of light precipitation, mainly in the form of rain but wouldn't be surprised if the forecast is mostly dry. Temperatures will be more seasonal for early January with daytime temperatures in the low 50s along the south and mid/upper 40s to the north and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

Forecast confidence for early next week remains low but the upper pattern starts to flatten out and become more zonal over the Ohio Valley late Sunday into early next week keeping things relatively uneventful and mostly dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

MVFR flight categories from low stratus continues over the region but satellite imagery shows this area beginning to break from west to east. Given how stubborn these low stratus decks can be, I am probably leaning more pessimistic on when we see the clouds break and clear by an hour or two. Once we see the clearing the forecast will be VFR through the rest of the forecast period. Outside of the current MVFR flight categories, the other potential impact will be a WNW wind around 10kts. More clouds increase with another passing system later this evening and tonight but those clouds look to be more mid-level from 5-10k feet.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KY...None. IN...None.