textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms today across Northeastern Nevada

* Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of Central NV this afternoon with NW winds gusting 20 to 30 mph

* A Freeze Watch remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central NV tonight through 8 AM Monday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Updated the forecast to allow the freeze warning and frost advisory to expire on time at 800AM PDT. No other changes have been made. Text products out shortly.

Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of mid-level cloud coverage across Northern NV, with mostly clear skies across Central NV. Temperatures at 3AM are generally in the 40s to low 50s, which is a little warmer than originally forecast, though some higher elevation valleys such as Eureka have lowered into the upper 30s so far tonight. Areas that hang on to the heavy cloud cover the rest of tonight may be able to avoid reaching the forecast lows of upper 20s to mid 30s. Frost and Freeze warnings will remain in effect through 8AM this morning however as additional cooling is expected even under heavy cloud cover.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop today across Northeastern NV with most showers ending this evening. Drier across Central NV today with NW winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. Tonight into Monday morning cloud cover will diminish with low temperatures expected to drop into the low 30s to mid 20s in most of the valley locations across Northern and Central NV.

Broad trough energy is expected to persist across the Western US Monday through Friday with a warming trend through the period. High temperatures Monday afternoon will remain below normal, with upper 60s to low 70s. Highs reach the low to mid 80s by Thursday and mid to upper 80s next Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence of cooler temperatures prompting Frost Advisory and Freeze Warnings this morning. Moderate confidence for lingering showers and thunderstorms over Elko county this afternoon. Moderate to high confidence for Freeze Watch conditions tonight into Monday morning. Moderate confidence for quiet weather conditions through next week. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF locations today and tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop across much of Northeastern Nevada today, with most activity ending this evening. Thunderstorm probabilities this afternoon are: KWMC 10%, KBAM 15%, KEKO 25%, KENV 15%, KELY 10% and KTPH 0%. Northwesterly winds will be breezy across Central Nevada today, with gusts at KTPH of 25 to 30 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop across much of Northeastern Nevada today. Drier across Central Nevada where breezy NW winds gusting to 30 mph and RHs in the 10 to 20 percent range are expected during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Strongest winds and lowest RHs are expected in the valleys of Northern Nye County including most of zone 426.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for NVZ031-035>039.