textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this evening

* Critical fire weather conditions will be prevalent this evening across Central and NE Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * Strong wind gusts to 50 mph will develop throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening

* Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop again Saturday across portions of Central Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity

* A Freeze Watch for portions of Elko county has been issued for the potential of freezing temperatures by Sunday morning

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly cloudy across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Latest radar loop is depicting a line of shower activity bisecting the forecast area with the line running from Jarbidge south to Elko to Manhattan. Light accumulations are being reported from remote observation platforms with the highest amounts of a tenth to less than two-tenths of an inch across Humboldt county. Expect the shower activity to continue off-and-on through the evening and overnight with light accumulations of about a tenth to two tenths. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

The shower activity is in response to an upper level trough that is positioned across the Pacific Northwest at this time. Model simulations are showing this feature diving to the southeast and setting up shop across Washington and Oregon by tomorrow afternoon. This will bring strong winds to much of the forecast area with west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph during the afternoon. As a result, a wind advisory has been issued for all of central Nevada and a portion of the north. In addition, this strong wind will combine with low relative humidity in central Nevada such that the watch has been upgraded to a red flag warning. Scattered showers are also expected, mainly across northern Nevada, along with isolated thunderstorms. CAPE values are forecast to be around 100-250J/kg with weak instability. High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler than recently felt, especially in the north where temperatures will feel 20 to 25 degrees cooler. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s in the north and 70s and 80s in central Nevada. The overnight low temperatures will also be cooler as well. Portions of Elko county may see readings in the low 30s, and as such, a freeze watch has been issued for northern Elko and south-central Elko counties. A frost advisory for other locations may be required, especially if readings continue to come in the mid to upper 30s range in the valleys.

Light showers are expected to continue across portions of northern Nevada Sunday. In addition, high temperatures will continue be below normal with readings only reaching the low 60s to low 70s. Winds will be lighter as well. For the overnight, there is a potential for additional freeze products across portions of northern and central Nevada and this will need to be watched. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.

Models are showing general troughiness across northern and central Nevada Monday through the mid-week portion. Kept the NBM forecast intact during this time period with high temperatures slowly climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Monday and Tuesday, and mainly in the 80s by Wednesday through the rest of the week. Overnight lows will also climb from the 30s and 40s Tuesday morning to the 40s and 50s by Friday morning. Higher wind speeds are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across central Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM wind forecast was brought up slightly for Saturday. Overnight lows will brought down a few degrees in the normally colder locales across northern and south- central Elko county. Confidence remains high in breezy to windy conditions for tomorrow. Confidence is also high with much cooler temperatures this weekend with possible frost/freeze conditions for the morning hours.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category through the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty through the early evening to 35KT before diminishing. Look for a ten to fifteen percent probability for -TSRA across the northern terminals KWMC- KBAM-KEKO and have included VCTS after 18Z. Winds to develop after 18Z W20-25G30-40KT across all terminals during the afternoon hours Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Fairly active weather will continue over the weekend across northern and central Nevada. Expect breezy to locally windy conditions to continue through the evening before subsiding late. In addition, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue as well. Look for cooler conditions tomorrow, though critical fire conditions can still be expected for the central Nevada zones of 425-427. A red flag warning has been issued for these locations tomorrow. Even cooler conditions expected Sunday with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, minimum relative humidity values above twenty percent and breezy winds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning through 11 PM this evening for NVZ425>427-470.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Saturday for NVZ425>427.

Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NVZ031-039.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for NVZ033>041.