textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong wind gusts throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow in Northern Nevada this afternoon and this evening

* Dry and relatively cool Tuesday through Thursday

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Westerly flow is keeping a progressive yet mostly dry upper pattern over Nevada. Currently there is a week upper level trough that is moving through the Pacific Northwest, outside of slight increase in clouds across northern Nevada most of the activity with this system will stay north into Oregon and Idaho. However there are a few models that do show that some very light showers could brush far northern Humboldt county Tuesday afternoon. So, have introduced a very low 15% chance for isolated showers for the far northern border. Winds will be breezy Tuesday out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with a few gusts up to 35 mph possible, as the tail of the upper level jet will extend over NV. Clouds will decrease again Wednesday as this system departs, but the broad westerly flow will continue through Thursday afternoon. Attention will then turn to our next major weather system that will move in late Thursday and last through the Weekend. Models are showing a large longwave trough digging south along the wast coast, with up to three local maximums in vorticity, that will act as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms, one off the coast of Washington, one off the southern California channel Island, and a third in the middle off of the SF Bay area. It is this third area that will serve as a focus for Nevada, bringing several rounds of isolated to scattered showers, thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall through Monday morning. To be fair there is still a lot of unknowns with this system, the first being is how are all of the vorticity centers portrayed in model solutions will interact with each other. Second, how strong will these centers be. Third, what will be the track of the trough. Models show this trough moving as one piece despite the split nature models have shown in recent runs. Already models have cut forecasted QPF for Nevada almost in half from this morning, with more swings expected before this system will be able to be sampled by observations. Right now multi-day precipitation amounts look to be about a trace to 0.25 of rain for passes and valleys, with up to 0.50 to an inch of water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 6500 feet by Sunday. With a trace to 0.5 possible for the passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range peaks. Monday and Tuesday high pressure will build in as the trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region. Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the nest week, as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in quiet yet breezy conditions Tuesday through Thursday with winds out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.

There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday morning. Upper level system passing to the north will increase westerly winds to 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will be low to elevated for the next several days for all zones. Winds will be breezy Tuesday and Wednesday as a quick moving storm system passes to the north. Winds will be out of the west at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Good news is that RH values will be high given the near to, to below normal temperatures meaning Red Flag criteria will not be met. After Thursday, a large upper level storm system is expected to moving across the west coast through Monday morning. This system will further reduce fire weather concerns as several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a few thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as wind remain on the breezy side, out of the S to SW at similar speeds as before.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.