textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage today, lasting into the weekend. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

* Temperatures will begin cooling tomorrow and Saturday with readings below to near normal

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Clouds and light precipitation have spread across northern and central Nevada during the early morning hours. A current review of precipitation amounts received at remote observation locations across the area show light amounts at less than a tenth of an inch.

For today, strong upper level ridging continues to reside across the southwestern United States with an upper trough in the northwest Pacific states. Moisture has been on the increase during the overnight and this will provide the fuel for showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon. Surface based CAPE values will generally run between 200-600J/kg or so with steeper lapse rates seen across east-central and northeastern Nevada. In addition, 0-3km bulk shear values are coming in fairly strong at 35 to 45 knots. suffice to say some strong thunderstorms are possible today across central and northeastern Nevada, basically covering the US High50 corridor, northeast to roughly Montello. These storms could be long-lived, produce wind gusts to 60 mph and have small hail and localized heavy rain. The heavy rain could be very problematic if it falls on a recently burned location, leading to debris flows and flash flooding. Highs today will be in the 80s with lows in the 50s.

Saturday is trending more concerning as well as confidence increases with respect to active weather and strong storms. Current model runs are showing a more rapid decrease in precipitable water values with much of the area around two-thirds of an inch, save for portions of eastern and central Nevada at or above 0.75 inches. In this area with higher precipitable water, lifted indices are forecast to be around -2C to -4C or so, and will be coincident with 0-3km bulk shear values of 30-45 knots. DCAPE values across the aforementioned area will be at or above 1000K/kg, which could lead to outflow wind gusts greater than 60 mph. Again, there is the threat for heavy rain and its subsequent impacts if it falls on recently burned locations, thus leading to debris flows and flash flooding. Cooling continues across the forecast area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will dip into the 40s and 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for afternoon thunderstorm activity over the area today. Confidence is moderate regarding increased precipitation today and Saturday as well as an associated cooling trend. Confidence is low to moderate on the possibility of severe weather across central and northeast Nevada today and Saturday. Adjustments were made to Wx, PoP grids in the short term to highlight thunderstorm development.

AVIATION

Thunderstorms will be possible over a majority of terminals today, continuing into this evening. Winds will develop later this morning and afternoon across all terminals with gusts of 20-30KT. Any thunderstorm has the potential to produce outflow winds gusting to 50KT. No sustained visibility or ceiling impacts are expected, although localized impacts due to diminished visibility is possible due to BLDU.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning, with showers becoming much more widespread in the afternoon and evening. Friday evening into Saturday, the potential for heavy rainfall will enhance, increasing the potential for localized flooding and debris flows, especially over newly created burn scars across the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to cool to at or just below normal levels.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.