textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through today, and again from Wednesday to Friday.

* Near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada for this afternoon.

* Low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon as a weak storm system clips northern Nevada.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

Upper level ridge continues to be the main weather driver over the weekend with record high temperatures possible through Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon a weak upper level trough will push through Nevada. This trough primarily will help serve as a push to upper ridge. There will be a very conditional thunderstorm probability with this trough as it passes through on Monday. With the exception of the NAM, most models show very little upper level moisture making it into interior of Nevada. Observed PWAT values from OAK and MFR soundings this morning show 0.86 and 0.60 respectively. Which if translated east would be on the low end of borderline for precipitation producing storm potential given how dry current low levels are. Should PWAT values come in higher than forecast, have introduced a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for northern Nevada Monday afternoon. By Tuesday the trough will be east into Utah, and into the four corners region, by Wednesday. Upper level ridging forecast to build back in over the western US, and persist through Friday evening. By next Saturday models are still hinting at a pattern change that may bring more active, wetter weather back to Nevada in the form of a northern stream upper trough, however confidence remains low as there are still large run to run differences in placement and strength of the trough in recent model runs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the potential near to record, or record highs through Monday with high pressure in control.

There is low confidence for the potential for isolated showers for far northern Nevada Monday afternoon as a weak upper trough moves into Nevada.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Wednesday through Friday of Next week.

There is low confidence for the potential for a pattern change as a stronger northern stream trough takes aim at Nevada for next weekend

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Tuesday morning. Winds will be light to breezy for all terminals with W to SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with a few gust up to 20 KT possible. There will be a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated VCTS for KBAM, and KEKO, and KENV Monday afternoon as a weak storm system moves through Nevada.

FIRE WEATHER

Under high pressure no elevated fire weather criteria is expected through the early week. A very small chance of afternoon thunderstorms in fire weather zones 469/470 on Monday exists. Any storms that do initiate will be more wet than dry. Given the low probability of storm activity fire weather products are not needed at this time.