textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow continue through Friday.

* Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance for severe thunderstorms for eastern Nevada.

* Much cooler Friday and Friday night, followed by a modest warming trend and dry weather through Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Large upper level closed low pressure system is now moving across California and western Nevada, and will continue to slowly make its way across the state tonight and into Friday. The closed low currently over Santa Barbara, will weaken as it moves into Nevada eventually opening up into a open trough by Friday morning. The resultant longwave trough will not be long for the world however as the energy splits the trough into two pieces by Saturday morning. One piece will form a new upper low over southern California, while the northern section lifts north into Montana. So for the rest of tonight and into Friday there will be several rounds of scattered showers and a thunderstorms with a marginal risk for a few severe thunderstorms for eastern Nevada, as the dynamic upper level lift and instability will reside over NV. As the trough moves more overhead tonight and into Friday morning cooler air aloft will try and filter in, this will take snow levels, which have been near 9000 feet for majority of time, and drop to about 7000 feet. Timing may allow for snowfall which had been restricted to the mountain summits, to reach some of the higher elevation passes. With Austin summit, Mountain City, Robinson, and Pinto as totals look to range from a trace to 0.5. However the range peaks look to see the best snow chances with up to a 18 possible above 9000 feet across central and northern NV. Rainfall amounts look to be good with this system as most location look to pick up from 0.15 to 0.75 in the valleys and passes, with up to 2.00 of liquid for the mountains through Friday afternoon. Models have been hinting at an band of enhanced precipitation may try and set up over western Humboldt county with some accumulations there reaching up to 1.50 through Friday. As of now this band look to stay just to the west over far eastern California, but will keep an eye out to see if there will be any flood potential shifts east tonight. The upper trough and new low look to push east Saturday which will allow for high pressure to quickly build in on the heels of this weeks system. Models show that this ridge will be firmly in control by Sunday, which will usher in dry quiet weather with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s for highs and cool nights in the upper 20s to upper 30s through next Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon, and persisting on and off through Friday morning.

There is moderate confidence in the probability of a few severe storms developing this afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties, as the SPC has a marginal risk highlighted for the area, with strong outflow winds being the primary hazard with storms.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Saturday through Wednesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday morning. However there will be several rounds of SHRA along with VCTS and TS tonight through Friday for all terminals as a upper level storm system passes through the area. CIGS will generally remain within VFR limits but as stronger bands of activity move through CIGS will drop to MVFR to even IFR conditions for period of time with ceilings dropping to less than 2000 feet. Thursday afternoon and evening there will be the possibility for severe thunderstorms for KEKO, KENV, and KELY as the SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing one inch or greater hail, and wind gusts above 58 MPH. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be breezy out of the S to SW at 10KT to 25KT with gusts up to 35KT possible, Wind look to shift to out of the NW overnight into Friday morning at 10KT to 25 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and wet thunderstorms will continue to suppress fire weather concerns. Activity is expected to peak today before wrapping up by tomorrow night. Elevated winds will also be a factor across the area, with southerly winds today, becoming north/northwesterly tomorrow and tomorrow afternoon. Dry weather is expected to prevail beginning Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.