textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Thursday

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening

* Warming trend today through Sunday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to ride the broader trough through the area beginning today, bringing increased moisture and instability. Isolated convective development is anticipated for most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening, with CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg. Precipitable water values are sitting around half an inch which usually indicates a dry thunder threat. Thursday looks to be in between shortwave impacts, resulting in a drier and much more marginal convective atmosphere. Winds are also expected to increase in central Nevada on Thursday, with gusts 25-30 mph. Temperatures continue to climb through the week and especially increase this weekend as the trough finally gives way to a ridging pattern. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for the holiday weekend. Very warm temperatures are expected to persist into early next week, with highs remaining in the low to mid 90s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in warm temperatures through the weekend. Moderate confidence in convection today, but low confidence for Thursday. Moderate confidence in calm weather after Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and winds under 10KT expected at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening today and Thursday. On Thursday antecedent low RH values combined with elevated south to southwest wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25- 30 mph for fire weather zones 425/426/427, resulting in an elevated risk of wildfires.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.