textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Expect a ten to twenty percent probability of light rain showers this morning across central Nevada with little to no accumulation expected.

* Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday.

* Unseasonably warm Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear across much of northern and portions of central Nevada. Clouds and isolated light rain showers can be seen east of and including a Tonopah-Ruby Lake-Montello line. This is due to an upper level trough currently spinning over southern California. This feature will take its time moving east today. The light activity will come to an end late this morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny due to slowly rising heights. Winds will be light in the north with brisk conditions in the central as north to northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be felt. Highs today will be in the 70s. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with lows in the 30s.

By Wednesday, the upper-level ridge off the West Coast will shift inland. This will bring a west to northwest flow aloft, bringing plentiful sunshine and dry conditions to all of northern and central Nevada. Temperatures will begin to rebound, with Wednesday afternoon highs climbing back into the 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be light with general afternoon breeziness to 20 mph.

The upper-level ridge remains the dominant weather feature across the interior West on Thursday and lasting through the early part of next week. This will keep the trend of dry, quiet, and pleasant fall weather lasting through the period. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid 70s to mid 80s, running above normal for early October, while overnight lows comfortably settle in the 30s and 40s. A few locations could be near record high temperatures by Friday or Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Current forecast remains on track with only a few early morning adjustments made to the PoP and weather grids in central Nevada to account for the light showers. Beyond the above mentioned timeframe, NBM forecast remains intact. Confidence is high in the dry weather and above normal temperatures through the weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are largely expected across all northern and central Nevada terminals through the next 24 hours. Winds will be brisk across the KELY and KTPH terminals with N-NW15-25G35KT beginning early this morning lasting through the early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Look for a drying and warming trend starting today and lasting through the upcoming weekend. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds today are expected to remain below critical fire weather levels across fire zones 424, 437, 438, and 469. However, winds will be breezier across fire zones 425 through 427 and 470 with gusts to 25 mph. When combined with minimum relative humidity values around fifteen percent this afternoon, this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the central and northeastern parts of the district.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.