textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering storm chances in eastern Nevada through tomorrow

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Convective activity is expected to increase in coverage later on this week and into the weekend

* Temperatures are expected to cool by Friday and Saturday with readings near normal

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly clear this morning across northern and central Nevada. The upper pattern has remained fairly consistent over the past several days as a strong upper level ridge sits across Arizona and New Mexico with an upper trough across the Pacific Northwest. For today, sufficient moisture and stability will be across the eastern portions of the forecast area such that there is a ten to twenty percent probability for thunderstorm formation during the afternoon. Main impacts will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and outflow winds to 45 mph. Highs today will be in the 90s with lows tonight in the 50s. Look for this pattern to continue into tomorrow as the aforementioned high pressure system retrogrades slightly to the west. Beginning Friday, models continue to depict a disturbance in the flow that will cross California into Nevada, bringing a resultant southwest flow to the area along with subtropical moisture into the forecast area. Uncertainty regarding how deep this moisture is continues to be low to moderate but the current forecast would bring shower and thunderstorm chances to much of the forecast area from Friday into the weekend. Moisture is currently anticipated to linger into early next week, with weaker and more isolated storms Sunday and Monday. Afternoon high temperatures will begin a downward shift to more normal levels on Friday with readings in the 80s and lows in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were made to PoPs and weather for the short term, introducing thunderstorms to the east. Confidence is low to moderate in storm chances and associated impacts through tomorrow. Confidence remains high with respect to in increasing moisture and atmospheric instability for Friday and Saturday but low confidence in moisture levels and extent of impacts.

AVIATION

VFR will continue at all terminals through the upcoming 24-hour forecast period. VCTS can be expected over the KELY and KENV terminals this afternoon with any store capable of producing gusty, erratic winds to 40KT. Otherwise, typical afternoon breezes to 20KT will remain across all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Hot, dry, windy conditions are once again expected across the northwestern portions of FWZ 437 this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds across that fire weather zone will range 15 to 20 mph with afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Isolated dry thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the eastern fire zones of 425, 469, and 470. Storms will initiate in early afternoon and diminish around sunset tonight. The impacts continue to be dangerous cloud to ground lightning and erratic gusty winds that will enhance aggressive fire behavior. General storm motion will be from the southwest to northeast at around 10 to 20 mph. Similar conditions are expected Thursday afternoon over the same locations with a ramping up of convective activity Friday through the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.