textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Elko County this afternoon

* Cooling trend today through Wednesday

* Periods of rain late this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of northeastern Elko County this afternoon. Otherwise dry and storm- free across the CWA. South to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 20 to 35 mph are expected in most areas this afternoon as trough energy approaches from the Pacific NW. The approaching system will also result in a few degrees of cooling both today and again on Wednesday.

An upper level area of low pressure will make landfall along the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday. This cyclone aloft will meander around the coast of the Pacific Northwest Friday into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone will be located in the Eastern Pacific, just west of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. There are indications that these two storm systems may interact with each other, drawing atmospheric moisture northward. At this time, low forecast confidence exists in this scenario. Timing, coverage, and extent of any precipitation late this weekend into early next week will need to be further refined in the upcoming few days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Elko County this afternoon. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling trend today and Wednesday. Low forecast confidence in periods of rain this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. South to SW winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected at most TAF terminals this afternoon, with winds diminishing by around 02Z. Dry and storm-free conditions at all terminals today with the exception of KENV where there is a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms between 18Z and 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Trough energy approaching from the west will nudge the area of moist and unstable air a little further east today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms expected to be limited to FWZ 470. The best chances for storm development this afternoon will be across the NE portion of the zone where the probability of thunder is around 20%. The approaching trough will also lead to increased afternoon winds for the remainder of northern and central Nevada today, with south to southwest wind of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph and some areas reaching up to 35 mph. Relative humidities in valleys will be largely in the 12 to 22% range today across northern and eastern zones. Zones 424, 426 and 427 will see RHs lower into the 10 to 15% range this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon, with a couple hours of critical wind/HR possible especially in zones 424, 426, and 427. Dry and storm-free across all zones tonight and Wednesday. Main concern Wednesday will be gusty southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph across zones 437, 438 and the northern portions of zones 469 and 470. Relative humidities will be significantly higher for these zones Wednesday, generally in the 20 to 35% range. High temperatures also trend a little cooler both today and Wednesday giving additional relief to the region.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.