textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather conditions this weekend with a gradual warming trend into early next week

* Possible low pressure system late next week returns precipitation chances to northern and central NV

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Ridging over the SW CONUS will continue to keep a tight lid on the atmosphere over the Great Basin. Pleasant weather conditions and light winds will continue into early next week. As the ridge slowly propagates eastward it will shift the wind profile over the area to more southerly flow by Sunday and Monday. This will help a gradual warming trend return afternoon highs back to just above seasonal normals for early April.

The ridge will deamplify as it moves eastward creating zonal flow over the Great Basin in between a ULT over western Canada and high pressure to the south over Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system off the CA coast will begin to influence the pattern over the state by mid week in the form of southwesterly flow and moisture advection. Moisture from the system to the west will interact with a weak shortwave traversing the broad long wave axis just to the areas north resulting in shower activity over the northern half of the state beginning Wednesday evening. At this time, model disagreement exists on exact timing, rainfall amounts, and potential for isolated convection Thursday and Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a ridge continuing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures into early next week. Low confidence exists in impacts from a low pressure late in the week, including timing and accumulations of precipitation. No major adjustments needed to 0-3 day grids at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period with light and variable winds. Chances for next weather activity return mid-week by Wednesday evening into Thursday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.