textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to re-develop today. Excessive rainfall is possible across portions of northern and central Nevada through the evening

* Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon over central and eastern Nevada could produce damaging winds and small hail

* Temperatures continue cooling with readings below to near normal

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mostly cloudy skies are noted on satellite this morning. Radar loop is showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada this morning. The cells are moving quickly at about 35 to 45 mph. Remote observation platforms are showing some precipitation with readings at or below a tenth of an inch at sites in White Pine county.

For today, upper level ridging continues to reside across Arizona and New Mexico with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest at this time. Moisture remains fairly high across northeast Nye, through White Pine and eastern Elko counties with precipitable water values of 0.80 up to about an inch. Further west at other locations, precipitable water values are at two-thirds to three- quarters of an inch. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected again today over most locations. Surface based CAPE values will generally run between 350-800J/kg. Lifted indices are forecast to be around -2C to -4C seen across east-central and northeastern Nevada. In addition, 0-3km bulk shear values are coming in fairly strong at 30 to 40 knots. DCAPE values across the aforementioned area will be at or above 1000K/kg, which could lead to outflow wind gusts greater than 60 mph. Again, there is the threat for heavy rain and its subsequent impacts if it falls on recently burned locations, thus leading to debris flows and flash flooding. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall continues across much of northern and central Nevada today and storms later today could lead to additional rain accumulations reaching half an inch or more for a two-day total. Highs today will be in the 70s and 80s with lows tonight in the 40s and 50s.

The high pressure center responsible for the recent subtropical moisture push will slide slowly east tomorrow keeping residual moisture restricted to the eastern edge of the state over the Nevada and Utah borders. Due to the placement of the high to the east, the weather pattern will be dominated by the storm track over the western CONUS mainly to the north of the region. Seasonally average temperatures are forecast to continue into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for afternoon thunderstorm activity over the area today. Confidence is moderate regarding the areal coverage of precipitation today Confidence is low to moderate on the possibility of severe weather across central and northeast Nevada today as well. Adjustments were made to Wx, PoP grids in the short term to highlight thunderstorm coverage and development.

AVIATION

Leftover -SHRA/-TSRA will be moving through the KENV terminal this morning. Otherwise, convective activity will be re- developing later on today with VCTS expected at all terminals except KWMC and KBAM. Main threats will be outflow wind gusts to 45 knots, small hail, and lightning. General breeziness will affect all sites this afternoon SW-W10-15G25-30KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected across much of central and eastern Nevada today. Main impacts will be heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding and debris flows, especially over recently burned areas, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty erratic winds from passing storms up to 50-70 mph. By the evening, thunderstorms will transition to scattered showers over the eastern and east-central zones. Temperatures will cool behind the cold front, making high temperatures drop to at or just below normal levels.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.