textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A low chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible for eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Warming trend through Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridge over the four corners will continue to meander around the desert southwest, while expanding its over all footprint in the upper level flow. One lobe will push out over the southern plains while another will push out over southern California, this lobe will generate height rises over central Nevada. This will bring a minimum for daily shower chances at 10% to 20% through Thursday. By Friday a upper trough will dig south over the northern west coast, this trough while having no impact on Nevada, will flatten the western part of the ridge, and push the ridge itself east over New Mexico. Which will generate a return to southerly upper level flow allowing for another batch of monsoon moisture to be pulled north into Nevada. Models show this flow pattern persisting well into the following week giving Nevada a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours starting Friday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday of next week if not longer as both the GFS and ECMWF suggest. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds across Nevada. This will return daytime highs back into the low 90s to triple digits for many with heat headlines possible for SE Elko county as overnight lows look to remain in the mid 70s for west Wendover. Elsewhere lows look to drop into the low 60s allowing for some recovery from daytime heat. After Friday the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s through Tuesday of next week. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons with W to SW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with occasional gusts up to 30 MPH possible. For the weekend and into the new week winds shift more to the S SW but speeds during the afternoons look to be similar.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for chances of warming temperatures through Friday afternoon, with heat headlines possible for SE Elko county.

There moderate confidence for a 105 to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for eastern Nevada through Thursday afternoon.

There is moderate confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Tuesday evening. Winds will be out of the west to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. There is a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated VCTS for KELY and KENV Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is too low to mention in TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds in across Nevada bringing breezy afternoon winds, warming temperatures and drier conditions. There is a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms mainly for eastern NV. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, and ground lighting strikes. Rainfall, if any will be brief, with amounts up to 0.05 possible. Friday afternoon the ridge will shift east allowing for southerly flow to return monsoonal moisture to the region with cooling temperatures and daily 20% to 50% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.