textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near historically high atmospheric moisture content today

* A few strong thunderstorms possible throughout Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday afternoon

* Decreasing rain chances Thursday through Sunday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Subtropical Ridge of high pressure shifting east allowing a upper trough to move north into Utah to eventually get picked up by the westerly flow over the northern tier of the US. This trough will act to set up another active day of convection for Nevada Wednesday afternoon, although coverage in not expected to be as great as Tuesday. Models show a 20% to 60% chance for scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, with the eastern half of the state seeing higher coverage. Once again storms that do form will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds up to 55 MPH, small hail, and localized flash flooding. By Thursday the trough gets sent east, and in concert with the ridge shifting back west, will allow for the monsoonal moisture flow to diminish through the weekend. As the ridge re-establishes over the SW US the southern flow will shift to Southwesterly flow cutting of our monsoon moisture supply as Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend see shower and storm chances drop each day, eventually ending by Monday. The other side effect of the decreasing coverage of storms will be the increase of temperatures that will return as high pressure builds back over the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

There moderate confidence in the potential for localized flash flooding issues for northeastern Nevada for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

There is high confidence that storm chances and coverage will diminish Thursday through Sunday as upper ridge cuts of moist monsoonal flow.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers/thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC Wednesday afternoon and evening. Direct terminal impact cannot be ruled out. The strongest thunderstorms could produce erratic wind gusts near 40 knots and reduced visibility in heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 50 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from the past few days (especially portions of 470 and 425). Thursday through Sunday storm chances and coverage will reduce each day as high pressure building over the SW US cuts of moisture flow.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.