textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions ahead of a weak cold front Monday

* Chance of precipitation Monday evening thru Tuesday night

* Fair weather conditions and warmer temperatures return Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather conditions and cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s today with the brief lull of upper level troughs.

Tomorrow, the second upper level trough will move in over the northwestern CONUS and reach into northern Nevada by the evening. Ahead of the trough, increasing winds will impact across the region with speeds up to 15-20 mph, gusts 20-25 mph over northern Nevada with stronger winds in central Nevada at 20-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph in the afternoon. Along with dry conditions of humidity below 15%, Red Flag Warning has been issued across central Nevada and eastern Elko County from 11 am to 11 pm as the trough moves in. Rest of the region will have better conditions as moisture from the system moves in from the northwest, which is increasing humidity levels well above 15% as well as increasing chances for periods of precipitation across northern Nevada starting Monday evening and into Tuesday. By the evening after 11 pm, the moisture will reach across the region, increasing humidity levels above 15% as well as winds becoming lighter, however precipitation chances is not expected to reach into central Nevada with the exception of Eureka seeing a 20% chance for some rain. For northern Nevada overnight and into Tuesday, rain will be light along the I-80 corridor with Winnemucca and Battle Mountain seeing a 20% probability of 0.02 inches of rain. East of Battle Mountain towards wells, and north of I-80 have a 30-50% probability of seeing up to 0.05 inches or more of rain. By Tuesday morning, precipitation chances dissipate as the trough shifts a little to the north, leaving calmer weather conditions. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s Monday with Tuesday in the 70s as northwesterly flow remains over Nevada.

Wednesday and into the next weekend, northwesterly flow will transition into a more zonal westerly flow as the trough weakens and moves east. Quiet weather conditions with some light to breezy winds expected each day. Temperatures will head back into a warming trend starting in the 70s to 80s Wednesday, and warming back into the 80s to 90s by Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Some breezy winds from the north/northwesterly, shifting to a more westerly direction up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts, with the exception of KWMC staying relatively light winds. Winds become light by the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally fair and cooler weather conditions this afternoon and into the evening. A second upper level trough will push in a weak cold front that will move over Nevada tomorrow. Critical fire weather conditions ahead of the front affecting zones 425, 426, 427, and southern portion of 470 due to wind gusts over 30 mph and min RH below 15%. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for those areas from 11 am to 11 pm. Rest of the zones will also see increasing winds, however will not be as strong with gusts up to 20-25 mph and the cold front will bring in moisture which will increase min RH values above 15% as well as increasing chances for some precipitation. The precipitation will be mainly situated across northern Nevada with central Nevada remaining dry. Tuesday, precipitation chances dissipate and move out of the state with breezy northwesterly winds across all zones. Min RH values expected to improve from the recent moisture with values staying above 15% with the exception of zones 425, 426, and 427 seeing elevated fire weather conditions as min RH values at or just below 15% with elevated winds reaching up to 25-30 mph gusts.