textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

* Continued near record warm temperatures through the weekend

* Periods of precipitation Monday through Wednesday

* Turning colder starting Monday

UPDATE

Issued at 1229 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026

No changes were made to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Stubborn blocking pattern that has held much of the west dry and warm for most of the last several weeks will begin to break down as a major pattern change looks to bring rain and snow chances back to the region. However it is still a few days away. Quiet weather pattern that has featured some version of a high over low, or REX block over the west coast, will begin to erode over the weekend as the cutoff upper low off shore of Baja shifts south and east Sunday night allowing for the upper ridge to move into the plains states. This will finally allow the northern jet to shift and allow a series of upper level troughs to dig south over the west into northern California. The first system looks to move through Sunday night into Monday. Models are trending weaker and farther north with this system and it may just serve a glancing blow to the northern mountains of Humboldt and Elko counties with light rain and higher elevation snow, but will bring in cooler air that will drop highs from the upper 50s to low 60s closer to seasonal norms in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday. A second stronger system, will follow on the heels of the first on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Models show this system on a more southern track that will bring lower elevation rain and mountain snow to much of the state. Snow levels are still a bit uncertain as models have been trending warmer overall. For now snow levels start at or above 7500 feet Sunday, before dropping to 5500 to 5000 feet for northern NV, Monday evening as the first system clips by. For Tuesdays system snow levels start at 5500 feet for northern Nevada, and 6500 feet for central Nevada. By Wednesday morning, depending on how much cold air verifies, snow levels could drop to valley floors across the northern half of the State with only far southern White Pine and the US-6 Corridor seeing snow levels at 5500 feet. Overall amounts are still a bit uncertain as well as overall moisture has varied quite a bit in the last few days of model runs. Current thinking as Sunday into Monday, liquid equivalent precipitation will be between a trace to 0.25, of that seeing a 1 to 4 of snow for the range peaks of mainly northern NV. For Tuesday night through Wednesday liquid values range from 0.01 to near 0.70. Valleys could see up to 0.15 of liquid with up 1-2 of that being snow. Roadway summits will see a bit more snow with 0.05 to 0.40 of water, including up to 2 to 4 of snow, while the mountains may see up to a foot of new snow. Thursday and Friday models disagree on the pattern, but agree that for the most part those days look to be dry. The EC favors a progressive shortwave ridge in the wake of Wednesdays system while the GFS favors weak troughing over the Silver state. However models do show the potential of a third trough pushing in for next weekend, just beyond the forecast window.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate to high confidence in the chances for a large scale pattern change beginning Sunday.

There is moderate confidence for light lower elevation rain, mountain snow showers Sunday night into Monday across northern Nevada

There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with lower elevation rain changing to all snow with light accumulations up to 1 for the valleys and up to a foot for the high range peaks.

There is low to moderate confidence for a break in the action Thursday to Friday of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions at all terminals today. High pressure is building in from the west which will result in partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, along with winds below 10 knots.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.