textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Tuesday thru Thursday

* Low chance for showers along the Oregon and Idaho borders, and the eastern half of White Pine County Wednesday and Thursday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level trof continues to deepen as it moves south thru British Columbia. Latest numerical model solutions depict a cut off low forming over Oregon tonight, with the low residing over NorCal thru Thursday before ejecting east. This will produce elevated winds, especially across central Nevada and White Pine County, each afternoon thru Thursday. South- southwesterly gusts will be 25 to 35 MPH, reaching around 45 MPH across the high terrain. Patchy blowing dust can be expected. Significant precipitation will not be present, though locations along the Idaho and Oregon borders may experience a brief light rain shower or two under the influence of the upper low, especially the northwest quadrant of Humboldt County. Concurrently, significant moisture across Utah, thanks to a northerly push of subtropical moisture from the desert southwest, will spill into portions of Nevada and provide a low chance for a brief shower or dry thunderstorm across the eastern half of White Pine County, primarily over the Snake Range. Temperatures across northern Nevada cool several degrees Thursday as the low and associated cooler air mass influence the region.

Temperatures gradually warm thru the weekend with a return to daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the valleys by Sunday. Weather looks to be dry though a low chance (10%) for rain showers across central Nevada will be present early next week as a weak Pacific low pressure system moves into Central California from the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in breezy to strong south-southwesterly winds each afternoon thru Thursday as an upper level trof passes thru the western U.S.

Moderate confidence in a 10% to 15% chance for isolated showers Wednesday thru Thursday for far northern Nevada, as well as eastern White Pine County where a dry thunderstorm or two may also be present.

Low confidence in a 10% chance for light rain across central Nevada early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be present at all terminals thru Tuesday night. Afternoon breezes will be present across central Nevada terminals including KTPH and KELY with south- southwesterly gusts 25KT to 30KT. Patchy blowing dust may cause brief reductions in VIS, primarily at KTPH and KELY, though confidence is not high enough to include BLDU in the TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions will be present across central Nevada thru Thursday due to breezy south-southwest winds each afternoon. Gusts between 25 and 35 MPH are expected, reaching as high as 45 MPH across the high terrain. The strongest winds will be within zone 425. However, the limiting factors for critical fire weather conditions will be fuels, and min RH values near or above 15% across zone 425. Min RH looks to reside around 10% to 15% along with fuels remaining cured for zones 426, and 427, though winds will be slightly more modest and critical fire weather conditions look borderline at this time. Breezes will also be present across northern Nevada though gusts will generally be around 20 MPH. An upper level low and associated cold front will provide a low chance (10% to 15%) for light rain showers along the Idaho and Oregon borders thru Thursday. Wetting rains are not expected under any such activity. There is also a low chance (10%) for light showers and a dry thunderstorm or two within the eastern half of zone 425 and primarily the Snake Range each afternoon thru Thursday. That said, the vast majority of thunderstorm activity will remain to the east within Utah where atmospheric moisture profiles and instability are much more conducive for the development of thunderstorms.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.