textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Slightly higher winds this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 30 mph across Northern NV and 30 to 45 mph gusts across Central NV * A high wind warning has been issued in Central NV tomorrow, with gusts up to 60 mph

* A wind advisory has been issued in Northeast NV tomorrow, with gusts up to 50 mph

* A storm system impacts the region on Tuesday with afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms

* Colder Tuesday night into Wednesday with a mix of rain and snow

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Winds have risen ahead of a low pressure center off the Pacific coast that is beginning its approach to the forecast area. Winds will continue to increase for tomorrow with High Wind Warnings in effect in central Nevada and Wind Advisories for northeast Nevada through tomorrow evening. Winds will be from the south, with gusts up to 60 mph expected in the warnings and 45-50 mph in the advisories. Blowing dust is also anticipated with the wind and may reduce visibility to as low as one mile in some areas. High temperatures will be in the 70s, however a cold front associated with the low will be passing through the area beginning Tuesday afternoon and temperatures behind the front will be in the 40s. Showers are also expected behind the front, and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the initial hours. Showers are expected to be mainly rain in valleys and lower elevations, however some mixed precipitation or overnight snow cannot be ruled out. Any lower elevation snow will be short lived however due to seasonal insolation and daytime temperatures in the 50s for Wednesday. Precipitation exits the area by Thursday and temperatures warm again, with daytime temperatures in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Model guidance is still showing signs of more showers this weekend, however this is currently a low confidence, high variability situation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Winds were increased slightly for tomorrow due to a history of NBM winds being too low in high wind setups. High confidence for strong winds tomorrow. High confidence in precipitation Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

Gusty winds have begun at all sites and will continue to be impactful through the next several days. Winds will gust up to 35KT at all sites today and are expected to increase further tomorrow for KTPH/KELY. As a result, there is a chance of lowered visibility and ceilings due to blowing dust at times. Otherwise, ceilings and precipitation are not expected to be a factor for flight categories in the next 24 hours.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ031-033-034-036-038-039.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ035-037-040-041.