textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes. Much stronger winds are in store Saturday

* Temperatures will gradually cool each afternoon beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

* Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm possible on Monday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

Upper pattern continues to be quiet for Saturday and Sunday, but changes are underway as a strong, yet moisture poor upper trough prepares to move across the region. Models move the area of tighter pressure gradient that was over northern Nevada into east- central Nevada for the weekend as this trough approaches and swings through Monday. This will keep fire weather conditions elevated to near critical for winds, as SW winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will possible for NE Nye, White Pine, and SE Elko counties. What will keep Fire weather conditions from reaching Red flag criteria is that relative humidity looks to stay in the upper teens to upper 20% range through Tuesday, and that thanks to recent rains, fuels are not cured. Elsewhere winds will be lighter out of the W-SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Monday, The GFS and ECMWF have continued to trend a little bit farther south with the track of the trough, a bit deeper, while continuing to depict a fast moving system. However, just as it exits Nevada, this trough will tap into tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo, boosting rain chances farther east. That being said, there will still be a 20% to 50% chance for light isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms accompanying trough passage Monday. However the best chances at seeing rain has trended south across central Nevada. Amounts still look light with a trace to 0.05 for northern Nevada, while central Nevada may see a trace up to 0.30 near Great Basin National Park. Tuesday and Wednesday shortwave ridging returns bringing another period of quiet weather conditions back to the Silver State. Thursday into next weekend model agreement still looks rather poor, as models show some form of ridging over the great basin, but cannot agree on the upper flow as the GFS and EC are showing perpendicular solutions as the GFS favors NW flow, while the EC wants to show SW flow aloft. Temperature wise, a cooling trend is underway through Tuesday, with highs falling into the mid 70s. Wednesday will start a warming trend, with the return of upper ridging to finish out the week as highs return to the mid 80s. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a much drier pattern lasting through Sunday of next week.

There is moderate to high confidence in the potential for a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada Monday.

There is moderate confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday morning afternoon. Winds will be light to breezy for KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO with SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across central Nevada, including KTPH, KELY, and KENV will be stronger out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gust to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will remain elevated to near critical fire zone 425, and eastern sections of 426, and 427 through Sunday, as the area of tighter pressure gradient shifts into central Nevada due to an approaching upper trough. Winds across the above zones will run out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH whereas SW winds will be lighter to the south at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Minimum RH values will remain in the upper teens to upper 20s percentage which with only partially cured fuels, will keep fire weather conditions from reaching Red Flag criteria. Temperatures will be cooling through next Tuesday with highs dropping into the mid 70s. Wednesday will see another warming trend get under way as highs return back to the mid 80s. Monday the aforementioned upper level trough transits Nevada, bringing a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across central Nevada. Amounts still look light with a trace to 0.30 of rain possible.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.