textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers and isolated dry thunderstorms within northeast Elko County today, otherwise generally fair weather in place today and tomorrow

* Rain showers and thunderstorms forecast across central Nevada Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Light rain showers and isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast today for the northeast portion of Elko County. No significant accumulation is expected under any such activity and rainfall totals will be around 0.10 inches or less. Otherwise, generally speaking, weather will be fair thru the weekend. Daytime high temperatures will also warm each day into Monday, returning to the upper 70s to mid 80s.

A modest Pacific low is still on track to move thru southern Nevada early next week. There is growing confidence in the prospect of rain showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations look to be around 0.10 inches but will almost certainly be variable across the region. Showers and thunderstorms likely spread north into Elko County by Tuesday, though exactly how far north has yet to be determined.

Weather will again become fair mid week under weak southwesterly flow. Latest numerical model solutions depict a deep Pacific trof moving into the western U.S. in the Friday timeframe. An increase in south-southwesterly winds can be expected Friday and Saturday in response to the encroaching trof. Increasing probability of precipitation is also expected late in the week under the influence of the trof. This is also in agreement with latest numerical model solutions. Though will maintain a dry forecast at this time until confidence in the prospect of rainfall becomes higher.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for showers and isolated thunderstorms today in northeast Elko County. Moderate confidence for showers and thunderstorms in central Nevada Monday and Tuesday. Low confidence for the long range forecast as numerical model solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern late next week. Opted for a blend of various model guidance and NBM to produce a more realistic PoP and weather forecast thru the period. Adjusted overnight low temperatures a few degrees colder in the typical colder valleys thru the weekend given mostly clear skies and enhanced radiative cooling.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be in place thru Saturday night along with generally light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Rain showers and isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast today for the northern half of zone 470 and within the Jarbidge Wilderness in zone 469. Otherwise weather will be generally fair this weekend across the forecast area with light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will also warm each day into Monday.

A modest Pacific low is still on track to move thru southern Nevada early next week. There is growing confidence in the prospect of rain showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada Monday and Tuesday. Wetting rains will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely spread north into zones 469 and 470 by Tuesday, though exactly how far north has yet to be determined. Weather will again become fair mid week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.