textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

* There is a slight possibility (5-14%) of severe thunderstorms in Northeastern Elko County this afternoon into this evening

* Elevated fire weather conditions in most of Northern and Central Nevada today due to gusty winds and low relative humidity values

* Temperatures will remain above seasonal values today through at least next Wednesday

* Dry weather will prevail Friday through at least next Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest today. The southern extend of this trough of low pressure should brush Northern Nevada this afternoon. As a result, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in Northeastern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist tonight into Thursday. There is a 20-30% probability of thunderstorms in Northeastern Elko County Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A few of those thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Thursday afternoon will be six to eight degrees above seasonal values. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Wednesday, June 11th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 97% Tonopah - 96% West Wendover - 85% Elko - 80% Battle Mountain - 80% Carlin - 75% Lund - 75% Ely - 65% Eureka - 65% Montello - 60%

Over the weekend and into Monday, warm and dry weather conditions dominate over the silver state as the zonal flow over the weekend transitions into a southwesterly flow due to a high pressure system strengthening over southern Arizona and New Mexico. No gradual changes to temperatures expected, however will remain a couple degrees warmer for this time of year. Southwesterly winds in the afternoons at 10-15 mph. By Tuesday, models are showing high confidence that the high pressure to the south will weaken, discrepancies remain on if the high pressure keeps its grasp over the southwestern U.S. with a weaker westerly/southwesterly flow, while other models are showing a slight troughing extending towards Southern California and shifting to a more zonal flow by mid-week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low forecast confidence in the formation of thunderstorms in Northern Nevada this afternoon. The majority of atmospheric moisture and lift will remain north of Northern Nevada, which could limit thunderstorm development. High forecast confidence in temperatures remaining above seasonal values today through at least next Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence in dry weather throughout Northern and Central Nevada Friday through at least next Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM output.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected all terminals today and tonight. Southwesterly winds of 10-15kts gusting 20-25kts are expected across the region from 18Z through 03Z. Thunderstorms will build across Northern Humboldt and Elko Counties this afternoon. Not expecting any storms at terminals, though there is a 5-10% chance of TS at KELY, KEKO, and KENV.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada from 10 AM PDT this morning until 8 PM PDT this evening due to southwest to west wind gusts near 25 mph and relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. There is a slight chance (5-14%) of severe thunderstorms in Northeastern Elko County this afternoon into this evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in Humboldt County Thursday and Friday due to gusty winds and low relative humidity values.

LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.