textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada this afternoon

* Historically high atmospheric moisture content Tuesday

* Flash Flood Watch Tuesday for most of Northern and Central Nevada

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. This will result in a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses.

An anticyclone aloft will move southeastward into the South Central United States this afternoon. This will pull monsoonal moisture northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 50 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over most of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. Elko may break its all time record for precipitable water Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall in parts of Eastern Nevada Tuesday. In addition, there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Tuesday, July 21st, 2026:

Lund - 57% Ely - 56% Great Basin National Park - 53% Eureka - 51% Currie - 49% Ruby Lake - 46% Austin - 41% Tonopah - 41% Wells - 38% Elko - 33%

Scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening due to lingering monsoonal moisture. This monsoonal moisture will shift eastward Thursday through Saturday, but thunderstorm chances (slight) will remain in the service area forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence in historically high atmospheric moisture content Tuesday. High forecast confidence regarding a Flash Flood Watch for most of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday. High forecast confidence in a few strong thunderstorms in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers/thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC this afternoon into this evening. Direct terminal impact cannot be ruled out. The strongest thunderstorms could produce erratic wind gusts near 45 knots and reduced visibility in heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening for the next few days. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 55 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-033-036-038.

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ031-033>041.