textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm both this afternoon and Monday afternoon

* Cooling trend Thursday and Friday

* Valley rain and mountain snow likely Wednesday through Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: All models are depicting an upper level low pressure system diving to the south from the Pacific Northwest states to just off the coast of Western California early next week. Winds will be breezy to locally windy with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Highs will be several degrees cooler with readings in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A slow forward progression is in store for this storm system as it tries to move east across Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday into Friday. Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are likely each day. The estimated three day forecast amounts for precipitation and snowfall are coming in around one-half to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall in the valleys with one to four inches of snow across the highest elevations in the mountains. Afternoon highs both of these days will be in the 50s and 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

The system may be exiting east by the latter portions of the week. Highs will remain on the cool side, with readings in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the short term grids as NBM is handling the forecast well. Confidence in the forecast remains high through Monday. Confidence continues to be moderate with respect to the precipitation and temperature forecast next week. Low confidence on the chances of a cold front late next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the next 24 hours. No precipitation is expected today through Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. A cooling trend is expected Thursday and Friday. The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.