textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Record to near record warmth is expected across all of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon through the next several days

* Dry weather will persist through next weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Occasional high clouds are migrating across portions of northern and central Nevada at this time. Winds are occasionally breezy but speeds remain well below advisory thresholds. Look for a quiet night this evening with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

Models are depicting a strengthening of the east Pacific upper ridge beginning Monday. Heights will be rising slowly in the short term, bringing another round of well above normal temperatures to the forecast area. Some locales will see additional high temperature records set this week as well and these will be covered in the climate section below. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with west to southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 75 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada on Monday:

Austin - 0% Battle Mountain - 85% Elko - 70% Ely - 60% Eureka - 15% Jackpot - 20% Jarbidge - 0% Owyhee - 10% Ruth - 10% Spring Creek - 20% Tonopah - 96% Wells - 35% West Wendover - 50% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 45%

Look for quiet weather during the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s and light winds.

On Tuesday, the upper ridge axis is expected to be at its maximum extent during the afternoon. This means another round of warm afternoon temperatures with readings in the 70s to low 80s. Winds will again be breezy during the afternoon with west to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 80 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Tuesday:

Austin - 0% Battle Mountain - 75% Elko - 65% Ely - 35% Eureka - 10% Jackpot - 20% Jarbidge - 0% Owyhee - 1% Ruth - 0% Spring Creek - 25% Tonopah - 75% Wells - 30% West Wendover - 75% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 45%

Dry and quiet conditions persist through Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and 50s with light winds.

By Wednesday, the upper ridge circulation is forecast to move slightly to the east and be over northern Mexico and southern New Mexico. Afternoon breezes will once again develop over northern and central Nevada with westerly wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph. With respect to afternoon highs, it is increasingly likely to be a repeat of Tuesday with readings in the 70s to low 80s. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 80 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Wednesday:

Austin - 5% Battle Mountain - 75% Elko - 70% Ely - 50% Eureka - 35% Jackpot - 25% Jarbidge - 3% Owyhee - 10% Ruth - 5% Spring Creek - 45% Tonopah - 50% Wells - 50% West Wendover - 85% Wildhorse Res - 1% Winnemucca - 25%

Quiet and dry weather will persist for Wednesday night with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Heights are expected to decrease with a west to east flow dominating northern and central Nevada for Thursday. A rather distinct cooldown is looking increasingly likely with afternoon high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Though this cooldown is expected to bring readings ten to fifteen degrees lower than Wednesday's highs, it is still above normal for this time of year. Winds will be occasionally breezy with north to northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. Look for quiet and dry to continue Thursday night with lows in the 20s and 30s.

On Friday, models are showing weak troughing over the west coast but conditions remain dry and warm for this time of year. Winds will be light and temperatures will continue to remain above normal levels with highs in the 70s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

It continues to look rather uneventful for the upcoming weekend. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence in the forecast remains very high. Only change made was to the short term winds, using a one to two blend of NBM 90th percentile and regular NBM forecast.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Look for occasional breezy northwest to west winds during the afternoon hours Monday with gusts to 20KT possible.

CLIMATE

Records continue to fall across northern and central and the next few days will be no different. Most records are expected to be broken by 5-10 degrees. Here is the current round of forecast versus record high temperatures (including the year they were set) for March 23-25:

March 23: KEKO: 72/1998 74 KELY: 71/2004 76 KP68: 72/2004 75 KTPH: 76/1998 81 KWMC: 77/1960 75

March 24: KEKO: 72/1956 80 KELY: 72/1908 80 KP68: 71/2022 81 KTPH: 75/2022 84 KWMC: 76/2022 81

March 25: KEKO: 77/2022 80 KELY: 74/2022 82 KP68: 76/2022 82 KTPH: 79/2022 83 KWMC: 80/2022 79

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.