textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues

* Extreme Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday through Sunday for all of northern and central Nevada as another round of hot afternoons and warm nights invade the area

* Elevated fire weather conditions expected in Northern Nevada Friday due to hot, dry, and breezy weather

* Low probability of isolated dry thunderstorms in Central Nevada this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain fairly hazy and smoky due to the active wildfires across the western United States. Look for the smoke to continue through the overnight with minor impacts to visibility and air quality. Winds will be on the light side with overnight lows in the 50s. No precipitation is expected.

Wednesday through Friday, the main story continues to be the warming temperatures through the mid-week period. This is due to a fairly strong upper level ridge that will undergo some strengthening as it retrogrades west in the coming day or two. As a result, high temperatures will climb back into the triple digits in some locales on Wednesday with an expansion of those triple digit readings to many locations on Thursday. Some record temperatures are sure to be broken during the upcoming heatwave. Due to the intensity and duration of the heat, have issued extreme heat watches for all of northern and central Nevada from Thursday afternoon to Sunday evening. High temperatures will be in the 90s Wednesday afternoon, rising into the upper 90s to low 100s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for the period. Winds will generally remain light though some occasional gusts to 20 mph are expected in the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday, the heat is expected to continue into the upcoming weekend, though model simulations are showing slight increases in mid-level moisture. As the upper ridge shifts east to the four-corners region, look for this moisture to slowly make its way into central Nevada. A low probability of isolated dry thunderstorms continues across portions of central Nevada through the weekend. Confidence remains low on the timing and coverage of storms and may complicate current fire fighting efforts in central Nevada. This scenario will need to be watched for possible headline fire weather products. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be hot with readings in the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. One additional area of concern fire weather wise is across northern Nevada, where breezy winds will combine with low relative humidity values to bring elevated fire weather conditions. While wind speeds are slightly below RFW criteria at this time, future model runs will need to be scrutinized for Fire Weather product potential.

Monday continues to look warm across the north with readings in the upper 90s to low 100s remaining, though slightly cooler temperatures in the low to mid 90s may bring some relief to the hot temperatures for central Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in continued smoky conditions affecting the area through the near term. High confidence also continues with hot temperatures returning for the mid-week period, prompting an extreme heat watch for all locations from Thursday through the weekend. Moderate confidence exists for elevated fire weather conditions across Northern NV late this week. Low confidence in the timing and placement for isolated dry thunderstorms continue for the weekend period across central Nevada. Grid edits were not needed for NBM output at this time.

AVIATION

Areas of smoke from area wildfires will create momentary reductions of MVFR/IFR conditions at all terminals through tomorrow. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with no precipitation expected through the upcoming 24-hour period.

FIRE WEATHER

A fairly expansive upper level high pressure system will bring occasional afternoon breezes to are expected across all fire weather zones today. Elevated westerly flow across fire weather zones 437/424/438/469/470 Friday and this weekend are closely being watched. Currently wind speeds fall below red flag criteria but should those increase, the combination of increased speeds with antecedent dry, hot conditions will warrant RFW products for those zones. In addition, mid-level moisture continues to show a slow increase for the upcoming weekend. By Sunday, a low probability for isolated dry thunderstorms exists for zones 425/426/427.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening for NVZ030-031-033>41