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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Central Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening
* Light rainfall is likely in Eastern Nevada Tuesday
* Warming trend Wednesday and Thursday
DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through Saturday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over the Silver State this afternoon and tonight. An Eastern Pacific upper-level area of low pressure will make landfall in Central California Monday. Southwesterly flow ahead of this low pressure system may pump enough atmospheric moisture northward into Central Nevada Monday to support the formation of isolated thunderstorms. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.
The aforementioned cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure as it moves northeastward across Eastern Nevada Tuesday, resulting in the likelihood of light rainfall. White Pine County may receive wetting rainfall, but rain amounts is other locations are expected to remain below one tenth of an inch. A ridge of high pressure will build northeastward across the Silver State Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in a warming trend. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezes should increase Friday and Saturday as the surface pressure gradient tightens.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Central Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding the likelihood of light rainfall in Eastern Nevada Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence in a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. No deviations from the NBM model output.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours.
FIRE WEATHER
A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Central Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Light rainfall is likely in Eastern Nevada Tuesday. A warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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