textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong, gusty winds today

* Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday

* Near freezing temperatures in the coldest valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night and Monday night

* Warm back to near normal temperatures rest of the week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Strong gusty winds today as a low pressure system to the northwest moves into Oregon/Washington state which is tightening weather gradients, forming a jet streak over Nevada. Strongest winds this afternoon are expected over Humboldt County, northern Elko County, and White Pine County with gusts reaching up to 40-50 mph, while everywhere else may see gusts up to 25-35 mph. Winds in combination with dry conditions result in critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warning is in effect until 11 pm this evening as well as a Wind Advisory for the aforementioned counties. Temperatures will still be several degrees above normal this afternoon in the 80s with cooler temperatures beginning to move in tonight, dropping the lows into the 40s.

Sunday, breezy winds in the afternoon again with gusts reaching up to 25-35 mph (strongest winds along eastern Nevada). Elevated fire weather conditions during the day as dry conditions will leave humidity below 15%, however remain borderline as when the winds increase, humidity also rises above 20% due to the much cooler temperatures moving in. Highs will be several degrees below normal for northern Nevada in the 70s with central Nevada staying in the 80s. Overnight lows will be coldest in northern Nevada in the 30s with some areas dropping to freezing level, while central Nevada cools into the 40s.

Monday, winds are expected to be light and fair as the main frontal passage moves northeast along with the jet streak. A weak shortwave trough pattern will remain over the northwestern CONUS behind the low pressure system which will keep a near zonal to almost northwesterly flow over Nevada. This will keep temperatures cooler across central and northern Nevada with highs in the 60s to 70s. Overnight lows will also remain cool with northern Nevada again in the 30s (some areas reaching to freezing temperatures) and central Nevada in the 40s.

Tuesday and through the week, there is some inconsistencies within the forecast as to what transpires with the upper level trough, with some models showing the trough strengthening to a low pressure system and moving over Nevada, while others show the trough remaining unchanged. The main consistency is that temperatures will gradually warm back to near normal throughout the week with highs staying in the upper 70s to 80s until reaching above normal by next weekend. Winds will also be consistent staying light to some mild afternoon breezes. No weather is forecasted throughout the week.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Strong gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon with speeds up to 15-20 kts, gusts as high as 30-40 kts. There may be possible BLDU conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag Warning in effect until 11 PM today due to strong gusty winds up to 45 mph and humidity as low as 9 percent across all zones. Tomorrow, breezy wind conditions in the afternoon again with gusts as high as 25-30 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow as humidity does drop to below 15% during the day, however is expected to quickly recover above 20% around the same time as when the winds increase. No fire weather products issued for Sunday, however conditions remain borderline. Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday with highs several degrees below normal and overnight lows reaching as low as freezing in some valleys.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-035.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening FWZ424-425-426-427-437-438-469-470.