textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through Sunday, and again from Wednesday to Friday of next week.

* Near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada for this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

Upper level ridge continues to be the main weather driver over the weekend with record high temperatures possible through Monday afternoon. It is by Monday afternoon that models want to bring a very weak pacific upper trough through northern Nevada. This trough looks only to serve to help push the upper ridge east as it will have very little moisture associated with it, which may be enough for a few showers across the Jarbidge mountains Tuesday. However chances at this point look to be about 10% at most. By Wednesday the trough will push into the four corners region, which will allow for upper level ridging to build back in over the western US, and persist through Friday evening. By next Saturday models are hinting at a pattern change that may bring more active, wetter weather back to Nevada in the form of a northern stream upper trough.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the potential near to record, or record highs through Monday with high pressure in control.

There is low confidence for the potential for isolated showers for far northern Nevada Monday night into Tuesday as a weak upper trough moves into Nevada.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Wednesday through Friday of Next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Monday morning. Winds will be light to breezy for all terminals with W to SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with a few gust up to 20 KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions continue throughout the forecast period across all fire zones as an upper level high remains over the southwest. High temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year across northern and central Nevada, reaching record to near record levels. Winds will be light with some occasional gusts up to 20 mph.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.