textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Various Heat Products have been issued for various locations between now through Sunday.

* Near record heat in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon today through Sunday

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Northern Nevada Friday through Sunday due to hot, dry, and breezy weather

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large upper level ridge of high pressure continues to situate over the southwestern CONUS, keeping high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. The higher temperatures reaching into the 100s have prompted several Heat Warnings and Advisories over central and northern Nevada. Extreme Heat Warning is in effect today until Sunday afternoon for eastern Elko County from Wells to West Wendover. Heat Advisory is in effect for Ruby Mountains, northern Elko County and White Pine County until Sunday afternoon. Rest of central and northern Nevada are under a Heat Advisory today and will be under Extreme Heat Warning starting 6 AM Friday. For Humboldt County, the Extreme Heat Warning will last until 11 PM Friday, for southwestern Elko, Lander, Eureka, and N. Nye County, the Extreme Heat Warning will last until 11 PM Saturday.

A tighter weather gradient just to the north of Nevada will increase westerly wind speeds across the northern zones along the state border. Elevated fire weather conditions for those zones due to afternoon breezes, low relative humidity, and extreme heat.

The position of the upper ridge is aiding in producing a monsoonal flow over the southwest with Arizona and the Baja being the main areas for moisture. The ridge will push some of that moisture into southern Nevada and reaching into central Nevada by Friday afternoon, with PWAT values increasing up to 0.5-0.7 inches across N. Nye and White Pine Counties. Despite the increase in moisture, thunderstorm development is expected to be at mid-high levels in the atmosphere, prompting the storms to be more dry than wet, however at this time, probabilities of thunderstorm development remains low for Friday. Over the weekend, probabilities increase for dry thunderstorm development across central Nevada. Storm motions will be slow which may prompt thunderstorms to develop and collapse on themeselves as storm downdrafts will subdue the updrafts. As a result, the storms may be short lived and any outflow wind gusts may reach up to 50 mph.

Active monsoonal pattern is expected to last through mid week with chances for dry thunderstorms spreading towards northeastern Nevada by Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continue for near record heat across northern and central Nevada for the remainder of the week and weekend. Moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions across the northern zones Friday and Saturday. Low confidence for dry thunderstorm activity across central Nevada Friday and Saturday afternoons. Changes to the weather grids for Friday to better reflect dry thunderstorm potential.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours across all terminals. Smoke from active wildfires will still be present across all terminals, however is not expected to reduce flight level category. By Friday afternoon, potential for dry thunderstorms return from a monsoonal pattern into central Nevada yet remain far south from the central terminals. High chances for more widespread coverage of dry thunderstorms by Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Extreme heat returns to all fire weather zones beginning Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions are present across northern portions of fire weather zones 438/469/470 and to a lesser extent zone 437. Sustained winds of 17-20mph with gusts ranging 20-25 mph combined with extremely hot temperatures and RH values less than 15% will create conditions for quick fire spread and erratic fire behavior each afternoon through starting Thursday through the weekend. The potential for dry thunderstorm activity exists in fire weather zones 425/426/427 beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing each afternoon into next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday NVZ030-036>038-040-041.

Extreme Heat Warning 6 AM PDT Friday until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ030.

Extreme Heat Warning 6 AM PDT Friday until 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-038-040-041.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035.

Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ033-039.