textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern Elko county and White Pine county

* Critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday across Central and NE Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening

* Much cooler this weekend

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: One final day of well above average warmth today before the next weather system approaches and puts an end to it. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s today with overnight lows in the 50s. Tomorrow, an upper low moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest. A tightening pressure gradient stretching as far south as southern Nevada is expected to bring gusty winds approaching 40 mph to Northeastern Nevada. Trough moisture will negate any fire concerns in the northwest section of the forecast area, but a Red Flag Warning is in effect for central and eastern Nevada. Additionally, trough moisture is expected to be strong enough to support showers and thunderstorms in northern Nevada, with precipitable water values between 0.6-0.8 inches. Temperatures for Friday are also expected to reflect this divide, with upper 70s and 80s in central and eastern Nevada but low 70s for northern Nevada. Trough progression continues south and east for Saturday, resulting in continued wind across the forecast area, more showers and thunderstorms in northern Nevada, and even cooler temperatures than Friday. Highs will be in the 60s in far northern Nevada, warming to the upper 70s and very low 80s in far central Nevada. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the 30s and 40s, and action may be needed in the coldest spots to protect sensitive vegetation or animals.

The closest passage of the low pressure center will occur on Sunday and its expected to be the coldest day of the forecast. Highs will be in the 60s and low 70s, with a few 50s expected at higher elevations, particularly along the Oregon/Idaho border. Showers and thunderstorms continue for a third day in northern Nevada, with a few high elevation (above 8000 feet) snow showers mixed in. Winds are expected to remain breezy but will be much weaker compared to Friday and Saturday. The trough exits to the northeast after Sunday and a southwest flow regime looks to take over in the upper levels. This would lead to dry and warming conditions, with temperatures returning to the low to mid 80s by Wednesday. That said, there is a low confidence/higher impact model solution featuring another strong trough that could impact the forecast area late next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in increasing winds and cooler temperatures through the weekend. Moderate confidence in precipitation through Sunday. Moderate confidence in cold weather impacts overnight Saturday and Sunday. Moderate confidence in dry and warming conditions early next week. No changes were made to base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and gusty afternoon winds up to 25KT will be the story at all sites except KENV, where no gusts are forecast today. Wind speed and cloud cover are both expected to increase for the next several days due to an incoming weather system.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing in southeastern Elko and northeastern White Pine county and are expected to continue mainly along the Utah border until theyre cut off from daylight heating around sunset. Tomorrow, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for zones 470, 425, 426 and 427 due to strong winds gusting up to 40 mph and single digit relative humidity. Relative humidity was too high to include the rest of our zones but winds will still be strong there as well. Winds for Saturday only strengthen further, gusting up to 50 mph at times, but the Fire Weather Watch only includes zones 425, 426 and 427 as all other zones had relative humidity above critical thresholds. No fire weather concerns for Sunday due to a combination of very cool temps, RH above 20%, and decreasing winds. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to return to start the week as temperatures warm again.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 425, 426, 427, and 470 Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for 425, 426, 427