textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low Shower and storm chances Sunday for eastern portions of NV

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon

* Above average temperatures and HeatRisk continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

One last afternoon and evening to go as the active pattern of daily shower and storm chances of last week and a half comes to an end. Sunday will see a low 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The best chances to see a storm will again be along a line from Round mountain in N Nye county northeast through the Rubies, an into NE Elko county. Hazard will again be gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Storm motion will be quick like Saturday so wetting rains are not favored. Monday through next Sunday will see a return of quiet Summertime conditions with breezy afternoon winds and very warm temperatures, as the upper ridge continues its slow drift west eventually setting up over the southern Great Basin and strengthening as it does so. Fire weather, and Heat Risk conditions will need to be watched closely as drying out of both the land and atmosphere commences, and overnight relief will be short. Winds will be out of the SW with breezy afternoon winds ranging at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Temperatures will range in the mid 90s to mid 100s. A heat advisory in effect for sections of Elko County for Sunday, and may need to be expanded as heat impacts build through the week. As for Fire weather, RH percent values will drop into the low teens to single digits in the afternoons, with overnight recoveries only making it back to the upper 20s, combined with afternoon winds may lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for a low chance of a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

There High confidence in the return of quiet Summertime conditions, with breezy afternoon winds and very warm temperatures Monday through Sunday of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday afternoon. VCTS forecasted at KEKO, KELY, KBAM, and KENV will create momentary MVFR/IFR conditions along with brief gusty and erratic winds. Westerly afternoon wind gusts at all terminals will range 22- 25 KTs. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible again on Sunday for northern Nevada. The combination of low afternoon RH values, breezy afternoon winds with gusts up to 35 MPH, along with isolated Thunderstorm chances. Wind RH concerns will be favored for Zones 437, and 438, while thunderstorm chances accentuate low RH/Wind conditions for 469, 470, and far northern parts of 427 and 425. After Sunday, High pressure building over the region will bring periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions for all zones due to very warm temperatures, low afternoon RH values, and breezy afternoon winds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.