textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across far eastern Nevada

* Smoke from area fires causing visibility and respiratory issues over northern NV today

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to spread west as the week progresses. Thunderstorm potential still exists today along the Utah border in both Elko and White Pine Counties. The high pressure system is expected to expand far enough west by Thursday to keep moisture out of the forecast area. Smoke from both local and Pacific Northwest wildfires is also expected to have local impacts during this time, particularly in northern Nevada. A very smoky morning was observed in Elko today and several more are expected to follow. Daytime southerly to southwest flow is expected to help clear smoke during the days, however calm or northerly flow during the nights will allow smoke to increase for the late night to early morning hours. Smoke concentrations are expected to be high enough to cause issues for sensitive groups, especially during early morning when concentrations will be highest. The final focus of this forecast will be the heat. Temperatures are expected to climb as the high pressure system establishes itself and widespread Major HeatRisk levels are expected by Friday and especially Saturday. Widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees are expected for Saturday, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will be in the 60s, somewhat limiting overnight recoveries. While the heat is expected to be at its worst on Saturday, long term outlooks indicate its not leaving any time soon, with intense heat favored through mid to late next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for smoke impacts through at least Thursday. High confidence in extreme heat, particularly for this weekend. NBM was modified for POP, PotThunder and Wx for this afternoon and evening to relay the 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorm activity across eastern NV.

AVIATION

Smoke from area wildfires will continue to produce periods of reduced visibility. The most at risk terminals for impactful smoke today will be KEKO, KBAM and KWMC, though smoke is possible at all terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of extreme eastern Nevada this afternoon and evening, with a 30% chance of -TSRA at KENV. Winds this afternoon will generally be southwesterly with gusts to around 20kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the eastern portion of zone 470, and the far SE corner of White Pine County, zone 425. Dry and storm- free conditions are expected across all zones Thursday through at least Saturday. High temperatures will be trending a degree or two warmer each day through Saturday, with overnight maximum RHs trending lower.