textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Gradual warming trend through the week

* Dry weather in store for the region into next weekend

* Stronger winds possible next Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low to the north over Washington is dragging its axis through the Great Basin Sunday, though a lack of moisture over the area keeps Sunday afternoon and evening dry. The low will broaden its axis into the early week keeping westerly upper level flow over the area for the next few days.

After a fairly active weather week for northern and central NV the general storm track over the western CONUS has lifted back to the north. A series of upper level waves will graze the northern border of the state this week riding the flow of a parent LPC slowly migrating eastward along the US-Canadian border. The region is moisture starved through the week so appreciable precipitation will be hard to come by for the next 5-6 days. On Wednesday limited CAPE values and PW values topping out around 0.5 inches along the eastern border in Elko and White Pine Counties may lead to some build ups and maybe an isolated dry thunderstorm though probabilities are long high at this time. Forcing will be of a diurnal nature thanks to a gradual warming trend that has already begun across the area. Thanks to low level southerly flow afternoon temperatures will increase a couple of degrees each day, reaching the mid to upper 80s by late week. This will be about 5-10 degrees above normal though no local records look to be in jeopardy at this time.

By late week a strong upper level low will begin to make its way into the Pacific NW. While the bulk of the system will remain to the north of the area its tightening pressure gradient will increase wind speeds across the area on Saturday. Future scrutiny of model runs will be needed to check for the possibility of Wind Products for the upcoming weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a warming trend this week. Moderate confidence in dry weather through the week. Moderate confidence in stronger winds next Saturday. No major changes needed to the grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. No precipitation is anticipated through the forecast period. Northeast winds will increase at KWMC overnight tonight up to 15KTs with gusts up to 25KTs before sunrise when winds will diminish.

FIRE WEATHER

Conditions are expected to remain on the dry side across northern and central Nevada through the upcoming week. Winds will be light with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph through mid-week with winds becoming more breezy with gusts to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digit to low teen range each afternoon with highs warming to well above normal levels by mid-week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.