textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonable warmth Today and Friday afternoon.

* Strong southerly wind gusts increase Friday into Friday night across the area.

* Periods of light rain and high elevation snow arrive late Friday evening into Saturday morning.

* Another storm system approaches the area Monday and Tuesday with additional precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

Weather Pattern Overview: The upper-level ridge centered over the Rocky Mountains will continue to dominate the local weather today, keeping warm and dry conditions in place with highs as much as 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds will generally remain light, though will become breezy across portions of central Nevada this afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 mph, especially in northwestern Nye and central Eureka counties.

Windy conditions will begin to overspread much of the rest of northern and central Nevada by late tonight and into Friday as an upper- level trough and associated low pressure system moves into the western CONUS. Southerly winds will increase ahead of this system, with sustained winds 20-25 mph and gusts as high as 45 mph. Cannot rule out a few gusts up to 50 mph, especially in central Nevada. Moisture will begin to increase across the area under this southerly flow Friday afternoon with rain showers increasing in coverage and intensity into the overnight hours Friday. Snow levels will start out above 8,000 feet, dropping to as low as 6,000 feet Saturday morning as cooler air filters in. Only light snowfall accumulations are expected and should remain confined to high elevation summits and passes. This system should be quick moving, with any lingering precipitation exiting the region by mid-morning Saturday. Here are the probabilities of summits receiving a half inch or more of snow over 24 hours:

Adobe Summit - 30% Emigrant Pass - 20% Secret Pass 82% Pequop Summit 20% Austin Summit - 55% Bob Scotts Summit - 90% Garden Pass - 70% Hickison Summit - 10% Pinto Summit - 75% Connors Pass - 65% Murry Summit - 60% Robinson Summit - 75%

Weak ridging will briefly build back over the Silver State in the wake of this system Sunday before another trough of low pressure enters the area Monday. There remains some uncertainty in guidance regarding the timing of this system and associated precipitation late Monday into Tuesday. Regardless, slightly cooler air aloft (compared to our Friday system) may result in a colder system. Periods of light rain may transition to snow showers as the system departs Tuesday morning, even in area valleys across northern and central Nevada. Active pattern is expected to persist into mid- week with yet another possible area of low pressure over the Eastern Pacific progged to impact the western CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. Highs near normal this weekend will trend below normal by mid-week next week, into the upper 30s to middle 40s. Lows will remain in the 20s for most.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for above normal temperatures and dry, calm weather today. High confidence for high winds tomorrow across northern and central Nevada. High confidence for precipitation and mountain snow tomorrow night into Saturday morning with low to moderate confidence of snow reaching the higher passes and summits. Moderate confidence of a second weather system impacting Nevada Monday through Tuesday. Low confidence of a third weather system impacting Nevada next Wednesday through next Thursday. No changes to the weather grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. General light winds 8-12kts expected over the northern terminals while winds at the central terminals expected to increase from the south/southeast at 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-033>041.