textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm this afternoon and Friday afternoon

* Strong wind gusts in Central Nevada Saturday and Sunday

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday

* Cooling trend Saturday through Monday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will extend westward across Southern Nevada this afternoon through Friday. High temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon and Friday afternoon will be twelve to fourteen degrees above normal for this time of year. A Western Canada cyclone aloft will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest Saturday. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will increase across Central Nevada. A Wind Advisory may be required for parts of Central Nevada due to south to southwest wind gusts near 50 mph.

The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will drop southward into Northern California Sunday. This storm system will draw atmospheric moisture associated with Tropical Storm Rachel northward into Eastern Nevada, resulting in the likelihood of rain Sunday and Sunday night. Rainfall could be heavy at times. A Flood Watch may be required. The majority of this rain will fall Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Here are probabilities of three quarters of an inch or more of rain for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 5 AM PDT Sunday, October 11th, 2026 until 5 AM PDT Monday, October 12th, 2026:

Ely - 70% Elko - 60% Spring Creek - 55% West Wendover - 55% Wells - 55% Carlin - 50% Eureka - 50% Battle Mountain - 25% Tonopah - 25% Winnemucca - 15%

A cooling trend is expected Saturday through Monday. By Monday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be six to eight degrees below normal for this time of year. Sub-freezing minimum temperatures are anticipated in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night through at least Tuesday night. Maximum temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada will remain below seasonal values Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in unseasonably warm temperatures both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts in Central Nevada Saturday and Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday and Sunday night. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Friday morning. Winds will be light to breezy for all terminals with variable winds shifting to the W-SW at 5KT to 15 KT with a few gust up to 25 KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions Friday and Saturday will be near to, to Critical for zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 Friday afternoon, and for Saturday afternoon ahead of a upper level trough that will move through Nevada for the weekend. Another factor will be remnant moisture from former hurricane Rachel which will make landfall over the Baja Peninsula Saturday. Friday winds will pick up across Humboldt and Elko counties out of the west/SW at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Combined with minimum RH values of 10% to 20% and a very dry September and early October will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Have decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Friday afternoon for zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 Saturday will be a conditional day even as winds look to be a bit stronger across above noted zones. As Fire weather concerns will be dictated by timing between the arrival of much higher RH values from the upper trough and Post TC Rachel, vs the timing of the strongest winds. As it looks right now the higher RH will out pace the winds keeping fire weather concerns elevated. For now we will keep the Fire weather watch in place as timing can still change. Sunday though Wednesday Fire weather concerns will be very low as a strong upper trough will draw tropical moisture northward into Nevada that will bring several rounds of much needed precipitation to the region, as well as cooler temperatures as highs look to range in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories