textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A wind advisory is in effect for east-central Nevada. Expect gusty winds currently, easing mid-morning through mid-evening today before picking up again late this evening through 5 AM Monday.

* A flash flood watch remains in effect for White Pine, northern Nye, southern Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties through Monday morning due to a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

* Most locations across northeastern and central Nevada are projected to receive between a half inch and one inch of rainfall now through Monday morning. Higher amounts are possible.

* Snow levels begin to lower tonight, with mountains above 8500 feet in elevation potentially receiving 6 or more inches of snow between 5 AM Monday and 5 PM Tuesday.

* Monday morning valley locations across northern Elko County such as Wild Horse and Jarbidge may receive between a trace and an inch of snow.

* Monday night into Tuesday morning snow levels lower to around 6000 feet across the region with many summits and higher elevation valley locations expected to receive between a trace and a half inch of snow. * Dry Wednesday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low currently centered over the Pacific NW is helping to draw up moisture from southern CA/NV. Rain showers began in southern White Pine County around 1AM and are expected to expand north and west the rest of today and tonight. QPF amounts remain on track with much of central and northeastern NV projected to receive between a half inch and an inch of rain by Monday morning. Latest guidance has backed off on the wind speeds across central NV between late this morning and early this evening. Left the wind advisory in effect however as winds are expected to pick back up later this evening into early Monday morning. The moist southerly flow across central and northeastern Nevada will keep snow levels at or above 10,000 feet through this afternoon. This evening as the low over the Pacific NW begins shifting south and east toward northern NV snow levels across NV will begin to lower. For most of central Nevada as well as eastern Elko County snow levels are expected to remain at or above 8500 feet through 5 AM Monday. The cooler air from the approach Pac NW low will however bring snow levels across north- central Elko County down to around 6000-6500 feet by sunrise Monday. Lingering showers in combination with the cooler air mass may result in light snow Monday morning at Wild Horse, Mountain City, Owyhee and Jarbidge. Most of this area will likely see less than a quarter inch of snow Monday morning, however Jarbidge could see an inch or more before temperatures climb later Monday morning. Monday night the low coming in from the Pac NW is expected to be centered directly over central Nevada. Snow levels Monday night will lower to around 6000 feet. Summits and higher elevation valley locations across most of the CWA are projected to receive between a trace and a half inch of snow into Tuesday morning. Slightly higher amounts of an inch or so are possible along summits of Highway 50 including the town of Eureka. Showers linger Tuesday afternoon with snow levels rising to around 7500 feet. Showers end Tuesday evening with a dry period expected Wednesday through next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Decreased confidence in wind speeds across central NV today and tonight. High confidence regarding significant rainfall in central and eastern Nevada through Monday. High confidence in a cooling trend through Monday night. Low to moderate confidence in snow levels and amounts Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION

Moderate to heavy rain showers develop this morning across central and NE Nevada with periods of MVFR or lower conditions possible at KELY, KTPH and KENV. By late this morning and through this afternoon showers will expand west and north to include KEKO. Rain showers continue, heavy at times, at these four terminals this evening and through the overnight hours. KWMC and KBAM may see a few light showers today and tonight, however not expecting conditions to drop below VFR. Periods of light to moderate showers will persist across most of central and northeastern Nevada Monday into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Cooler air is advecting in from the Pacific NW while at the same time a very moist air mass is moving up through southern NV. Rain showers developed across southern FWZ 425 in the early overnight hours. Showers will continue to expand north and west the rest of today with periods of moderate to heavy rain likely. There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms today across mainly zones 470, 425, 426 and 427. Wetting rains and high humidity levels will persist through Tuesday, along with much colder temperatures. Dry conditions are expected across all zones Wednesday through Sunday.

HYDROLOGY

Plentiful moisture from decaying Hurricane Rachel continues its trek northward today. This significant moisture will interact with upper level low pressure to bring widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms to the watch area through Monday. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cause excessive runoff and may result in rock, mud, and debris flows in and near former fire burned areas, steep terrain, and poorly drained urban areas. Some of the former fire locations include but are not limited to the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, Egberts Fire. Oxley Fire, Antelope Fire, California Creek Fire, and Master Fire. Widespread amounts of a half to one inch of rainfall is expected across the region, with locally higher amounts of one and a half inches or more possible over portions of US Highway 50, northeast to portions of Elko county. A flash flood watch has been issued for these locations which is in effect through Monday morning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through late tonight NVZ031-033>035-037>041.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ033-035-040-041.