textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm afternoon temperatures continue through mid-week.

* Isolated thunderstorms possible across portions of northern and central Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as well as on Wednesday.

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow showers likely Wednesday through Friday.

* Cooling trend Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are currently sunny across much of thew forecast area though some low to mid-level clouds can be seen over east-central and wester-central Nevada this afternoon. Temperatures continue to remain above normal for this time of year. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight with lows in the 30s.

Upper level low pressure will be spinning out in the eastern Pacific tomorrow. Moisture from the south will be pushing to the north. Favorable dynamics will help to promote isolated to scattered showers with the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder. Forecast surface-based CAPE values will be in the 100 to perhaps 150J/kg with weak instability mainly across central and portions of eastern Nevada Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

Wednesday through Friday, the upper trough will gradually wobble its way towards western California on Wednesday. From here, models will bring it ashore Wednesday, opening and crossing into southern and central Nevada by Thursday and Friday. Model trends have been consistent in showing this to be a warm storm with snow levels above 7500 feet. Rainfall amounts in the valleys over the Wednesday through Friday timeframe have been increased and are fairly robust at a half-inch up to an inch. Highs during this period will be warm on Wednesday with readings in the 60s and 70s, but cooling into the 50s and 60s by Thursday and Friday. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon, especially in central Nevada where gusts to 35-40 mph are expected. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

The upper system is expected to shift out of the forecast area for Saturday with dry conditions expected afterwards. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the NBM forecast through the short term. Confidence in the short term forecast remains high, though there are slight differences in the timing and location of convective activity Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming 24-hour period. Winds will become breezy to locally windy tomorrow across the central terminals with gusts to 25KT. Local BLDU conditions may restrict visibility to one mile in spots, though confidence in occurrence remains too low to place in TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will continue to remain mild across northern and central Nevada through mid-week. An upper level system will be shifting to the east through the week, bringing increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers along with breezy to locally windy conditions. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Temperatures will begin cooling after Wednesday with readings in the 50s.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.