textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record warmth through Friday.

* Gusts winds Friday through Monday, though strongest gusts (of 35-45 mph) are expected Saturday and Sunday.

* Chance of showers Saturday through Wednesday, though highest probabilities (of 40-60%) will be on Sunday and Monday.

* Chance of mountain snow Sunday night through Wednesday night at the high peaks in central and northern Nevada.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot and dry conditions continue today through Thursday as upper ridging remains over the southwest. High temperatures remain several degrees above normal with reaching near records. Winds light and variable.

By Friday through Wednesday, a low pressure system to the northwestern CONUS will push southward along the western states that will bring in much cooler air with potential of having highs be below normal for this time of year. As the low pressure pushes south, westerly winds for Friday increase with speeds reaching up to 15-20 mph, gusts up to 25-30 mph. Conditions still remain on the dry side as there is little to no moisture over Nevada. At the same time as the low pressure pushes south, remnants from Hurricane Rachel will push northward into southern Nevada bringing increase moisture which is expected to impact by Saturday.

Chances for showers begin Saturday and lasting through Wednesday, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected on both Sunday and Monday, with Sunday seeing the greatest amounts of precipitation. Temperatures will see a big dip as the cold front moves over Nevada Friday night-Saturday morning with highs in the 80s on Friday, and dropping into the 70s Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures expected to see another dip with highs only in the 50s across northern Nevada, 60s in central Nevada. Overnight lows will also see a drop in temperatures starting in the 40s on Friday, and reaching to freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s by Sunday lasting through Wednesday. Chances for snow return in the forecast each night however snow amounts are very low and is expected to remain in the mountain peaks as snow levels drop slowly each day staying above 8000 feet. Breezy southerly winds Saturday through Monday with speeds up to 20-25 mph, gusts up to 35-45 mph with strongest winds on Saturday in central Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry and above normal temperatures today and tomorrow. High confidence for a low pressure system moving into Nevada late Friday and over the weekend. High confidence of gusty winds increasing Friday with stronger winds on Saturday. Moderate confidence in regards to moisture from a Pacific tropical storm moving into Nevada over the weekend bringing in increasing chances for showers. High confidence in regards to much cooler temperatures moving into northern and central Nevada over the weekend. Moderate confidence in regards to precipitation over the weekend and lasting through next week. Low confidence in regards to mountain snow over the weekend. Changes to wind gusts in the grids to better represent the increasing wind speeds Friday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour period with light winds below 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns at this time with min RH values below 15% but winds staying light and variable below 10 mph. By Friday, some elevated fire weather concerns return in the afternoon, as a low pressure system moves into Nevada, increasing wind speeds up to 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph, however min RH values begin to increase above 15% at the same time the wind speeds increase. Conditions will be borderline, but have issued a Fire Weather Watch for all northern zones as there are still active wildfires in the area. For Saturday, min RH values stay well above threshold yet winds expected to be stronger up to 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph. Fire Weather Watch has also been issued that day due to active wildfires in the area. By Saturday afternoon and evening, chances for rain showers return across all zones with and lasting through Wednesday. Strongest chances for wetting rains expected on Sunday and Monday over all fire zones.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch 1 PM PST to 9 PM PST Friday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Fire Weather Watch 9 AM PST to 9 PM PST Saturday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.