textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening

* Showers likely in East Central Nevada Monday

* Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

Upper level trough is beginning its trek through the southwestern US this morning as light showers are ongoing across western Nevada. The GFS and ECMWF have continued to track the trough moving SW down the California coast before bringing it inland across far southern Nevada and into Arizona by Tuesday morning. However, just as it exits Nevada, this trough will tap into tropical moisture from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo, which will lead to a excessive rainfall for Utah, Arizona, and points east. That being said, there is a 20% to 60% chance for light isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms accompanying trough passage late Sunday night through early Tuesday morning. However the best chances at seeing rain has trended south across central Nevada, with thunderstorm chances limited to the southern portions of NE Nye, and White Pine counties.. Amounts still look light with a trace to 0.05 for northern Nevada, while central Nevada may see a trace up to 0.35 for the mountains of Great Basin National Park. Tuesday through next weekend models return ridging over much of the southwestern US, but there is still a bit of disagreement on orientation of the upper flow as solutions vary from NW to SW flow aloft. Temperature wise, a cooling trend lasts through Tuesday, with highs falling into the mid 70s. Wednesday will start a new slow warming trend, with the return of upper ridging as highs return to the lower 80s. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the potential for a 20% chance for isolated showers across northern Nevada, and a 30% to 60% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada Monday.

There is high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Tuesday morning. Winds will be light to breezy for KWMC, KBAM, KTPH, and KEKO with winds shifting to the NW at 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across central Nevada, including KELY, and KENV will be out of the SW ahead of the cool front at 5KT to 15KT with gust to 25KT possible. KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO will see a 20% chance for light isolated VCSH. Shower chances increase to 30% to 60% for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across central NV terminals with VCSH to -SHRA for KENV, as well as -TSRA possible for KENV, and KTPH through Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will be low through next weekend as an upper level storm system transits the region through Tuesday morning. Winds will be lighter at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible with northwest winds for western Nevada, and SW winds for eastern Nevada. With passage of the upper trough through Tuesday morning, there will be a 20% chance for isolated showers across northern Nevada, and a 30% to 60% chance for isolated to scattered showers as well as a few thunderstorms for central Nevada. Amounts still look light with a trace to a 0.10 for valleys, and up to 0.35 of rain possible for the eastern mountain ranges. After Tuesday high pressure builds across the SW US, bringing quiet conditions to NV.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.