textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet mostly sunny weather through Thursday.

* Potential cold and wet weather system next weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: I asked my magic 8-ball if there will be any interesting weather the start of this week, the answer was no. For the beginning of this week, we have a large upper level ridge dominating our flow, bringing quiet sunny weather through Thursday. We will continue to see highs in the upper 50s/low 60s, as well as low temperatures in the 30s, with potential for higher elevation to see lows in the upper 20s. The passage of an upper level short wave trough overnight tonight will elevate our wind gusts up to 20mph in the northernmost portions of Nevada, however winds will quickly die down as we return to our regularly scheduled ridge.

Looking in to this weekend, starting Friday models are suggesting a series of troughs to pass through our area. With the passage of these troughs, high temperatures are expected to start dropping into the upper 40s/lower 50s over the weekend, and some areas even dropping in to the 30s by Monday. At the same time, there are signs of an atmospheric river event, which may lead to some precipitation in our area. This will bring chances for rain showers in the earlier portions of the weekend, and some potential snow showers in the higher elevations Sunday into Monday. Right now with timing so far out, there is still plenty of uncertainty on the timing and the strength of these impacts, so we will continue to monitor model trends as we get closer to the event.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in calm sunny weather the remainder of the week. Moderate confidence in the passage of troughs this weekend, low confidence in the timing and impacts. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected in all terminals through the next 24 hours.

KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to hardware upgrades.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.