textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Thursday

* A warming trend continues into the weekend for the area raising afternoon highs into the 90s

* Potential exists for a 4-Corners monsoon setup early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A long wave trough over western Canada continues to drag a series of shortwaves across northern NV Wednesday through Friday. These waves carry enough forcing despite weak associated boundaries to initiate convection over east and east-central NV both Wednesday and Thursday. Current radar and satellite imagery over the area shows shower and thunderstorm activity ramping up over Elko and White Pine Counties this afternoon. These waves are working with limited moisture available so storm activity will mainly be of the dry variety elevating fire risk concerns both days.

Despite the shortwaves a warming trend will continue into the weekend when afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 90s. While HeatRisk impacts are expected to be minor through the weekend those sensitive to hot temperatures should take precaution to avoid heat related illness.

Long range guidance into early next week depicts the development of a trough over the Pacific coinciding with high pressure building to the southwest over northern Mexico. Low level flow turns more southerly starting Sunday PM and the set up is in place for a potential 4-Corners monsoon event for east-central NV next Monday and Tuesday. Current positioning of the high is a bit too far south but if the high migrates further north into the southwestern CONUS likelihood of monsoon in the area should increase.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Thursday. NBM was predictably underselling dry convection both afternoons so PoPs and Wx grids were adjusted to better represent spatial coverage. High confidence exists in the continued warming trend. Low confidence exists in a possible monsoon setup early next week. NBM/WPC long term grids currently do not account for this despite clear indicators in multiple long range models.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through Thursday afternoon. Westerly afternoon wind gusts on Wednesday will range 20-22KTs at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, KTPH, and KBAM before diminishing after sunset. SH and TS activity is forecasted for KEKO, KELY, and KENV Wednesday afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry thunderstorm activity is possible over fire weather zones 425/427/469/470 through Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms are forecasted for fire weather zones 425/469/470 on Thursday. Moisture is slightly better on Thursday when a changeover from dry to wet is expected by Thursday evening. Previous concerns about a hot/dry/windy setup on Thursday over central NV have been relaxed as wind speed values have decreased with recent model runs.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.