textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong southerly winds will impact central Nevada during the evening hours with patchy blowing dust causing minor visibility reductions.

* Marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. A flash flood watch remains in effect for White Pine, northern Nye, southern Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties late tonight through Monday morning.

* Most areas across northeast and central Nevada will see decent rainfall accumulations with some locations seeing a half to over an inch of rainfall through Monday.

* Lingering showers and much cooler conditions Tuesday.

* Dry Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are partly sunny at this time across the area. Enough instability and moisture have allowed isolated to scattered showers and one or two rumbles of thunder across portions of Elko and northern White Pine counties this afternoon. Look for the shower activity to increase later on tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

The ramp up of shower activity is due to the remnants of hurricane Rachel joining forces with two upper level troughs. These systems will eventually push subtropical moisture northward across southern California and through southern and central Nevada. Periods of rain showers will increase in areal coverage and intensity as the upper low consolidates over the states of Oregon and Washington. Total QPF amounts for the first twenty-four hours looks impressive with amounts greater than an inch. With respect to the probability, there are sixty to eighty percent probability of greater than an inch across much of central and northeast Nevada. As a result, have expanded the flash flood watch to include southern Lander/Eureka counties and Elko county beginning tonight at 11pm and lasting until early Monday morning. The air mass will be very moist with forecast precipitable water values climbing into the seven to eight tenths, which would make this near a daily record amount for October 11. Highs will only be in the 60s and winds will continue to remain gusty and strong. One concern tomorrow will be the isolated thunderstorm probability, which sits at about twenty percent over the forecast area contained in the flash flood watch. There is slightly more CAPE and instability for tomorrow where cells could produce very heavy rainfall. Main concerns are the burn scar locations highlighted in the flood watch and these areas will need to be watched.

Lighter rain showers are expected to continue over most of northern and central Nevada Monday night into Tuesday morning with showers ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Dry but noticeably cooler conditions are expected Wednesday through at least next Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Adjustments were made to tweak the NBM forecast with regards to PoP, weather, wind speeds, and wind gusts. Confidence remains high in the forecast with respect to the strong wind gusts in Central Nevada this evening, with moderate to high confidence in strong winds Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in central and eastern Nevada beginning late tonight through Monday. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend through Monday.

AVIATION

Look for strong and gusty winds S-SW15-25G35KT this evening. Will continue with the potential for BLDU reducing visibilities to one mile in the thickest dust. There is a 25% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across much of eastern Nevada including the KEKO, KENV and KELY terminals. Rain shower activity will increase across the central and eastern terminals around 06Z tonight with moderate to heavy showers expanding up through central and most of northern Nevada all day Sunday into Sunday night. Moderate to heavy rain will result in CIGs of MVFR/IFR levels at times between Sunday 06Z and Monday 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

A significant storm system will begin to impact northern and central Nevada today, bringing gusty winds to the entire region, along with isolated showers and thunderstorms to eastern zones including 469, 470 and 425. Minimum RHs this afternoon will range from 20% to 35% with southwesterly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 25 to 45 mph. Due to gusty winds and ongoing wildfire concerns, Red Flag Warnings are in effect until 11 PM today for zones 424, 437, 438, 469 and 470. Rain showers will intensify tonight through Sunday night with periods of moderate to heavy rain.

HYDROLOGY

Plentiful moisture from decaying Hurricane Rachel continues its trek northward today. This significant moisture will interact with upper level low pressure to bring widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms to the watch area from late tonight through Monday. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cause excessive runoff and may result in rock, mud, and debris flows in and near former fire burned areas, steep terrain, and poorly drained urban areas. Some of the former fire locations include but are not limited to the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, Egberts Fire. Oxley Fire, Antelope Fire, California Creek Fire, and Master Fire. Widespread amounts of a half to one inch of rainfall is expected across the region, with locally higher amounts of one and a half inches or more possible over portions of US Highway 50, northeast to portions of Elko county. A flash flood watch has been issued for these locations from late tonight into Monday morning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Flood Watch from 11 PM PDT this evening through late Sunday night for NVZ031-033>035-037>041.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for NVZ033-035-040-041.