textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week

* Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend continues today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Monsoonal flow continues to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the Silver State through Wednesday, but changes next week look to deliver drier conditions back to the Great Basin. Models continue to show 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these chances drop to 10% to 30% Tuesday and Wednesday, as High pressure over the southern plains builds west into Arizona. Storm modes through Monday still favor more wet storm modes, but there will still be a chance for a few dry thunderstorms, as storm motion increases. Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture flow becomes restricted the chances for dry thunder will increase as well. Common hazards for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. After Wednesday, models still show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west and shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction, thus cutting off moisture. What is interesting is models are now split on what will build in. The ECMWF wants to bring the ridge back over the Colorado River valley which would mean SW flow and warmer temperatures due to thicker heights. The GFS is wanting to also bring the ridge west, but it keep the ridge farther south, and wants to bring the Pacific NW under a longwave troughing setup. This will bring more westerly flow, which would be dry, but it would also be cooler given the lower forecast heights by 30 dM when compared to the EC. So overall confidence remains mixed for the extended, as conditions look dry, but as for winds and temperatures it is uncertain. For now will keep Temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s, overnight lows range into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Winds look to shift back to the west after Wednesday with higher speeds possible through the following weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Monday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for a mix of isolated dry and wet thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is moderate confidence in dry conditions returning to the Great Basin Thursday trough Sunday of next week.

There is low confidence in the upper pattern after Wednesday as models are split on potential solutions for winds, and temperatures.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will be possible during afternoon and evening hours as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow will keep monsoonal moisture over the region through Wednesday of next week. This moisture will keep a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Hazards from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. High Pressure ridge to the east will begin to impinge on moisture flow by Tuesday and Wednesday dropping storm coverage to isolated and storm chances to 10% to 30% for a mix of wet or dry thunderstorms. High Pressure looks to cut off monsoon flow fully by Thursday and Friday bringing drier conditions. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 MPH possible, after Thursday winds shift to west to southwest with similar speeds through the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.