textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low probability of isolated dry thunder in central NV Saturday and Sunday

* Confidence is increasing with respect to well above normal temperatures by early next week

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Zonal flow aloft in the base of a large ULT over west-central Canada will shift to more northwest flow by Monday as the trough shifts east. A low level short wave over central CA is providing enough moisture and vorticity over central NV to promote a slight chance for isolated dry convection over northern Nye and White Pine Counties this afternoon and evening. Moisture will gradually increase over those locations through this afternoon (PW increases from 0.4 to near 0.6 inches by this evening). Low prob convection is possible due to CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg and sufficient forcing from diurnal processes. Sunday afternoon the setup is similar with slightly better PW values (0.5 increasing to 0.7 inches). Current thinking is dry convection Sunday afternoon will gradually change to a mixed bag of wet and dry especially in elevated regions such as southeastern White Pine County and Great Basin National Park.

By Monday a broad upper level HPC over the Pacific will begin to encroach on the western CONUS. This will calm winds and diminish precipitation chances in the early week while raising afternoon high temperatures across the state. Forecasted highs in the low to mid 90s will run roughly 10-15 degrees above normal. Tuesday through Thursday several temperature records will be in jeopardy. Heat Risk will be possible for those sensitive to warm temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. This will be especially true for West Wendover where overnight lows Wednesday AM will struggle to fall below 70.

Beyond mid week a stronger ULT develops over the Pacific and begins to migrate into the western CONUS by Thursday and Friday. Increasing moisture and southwest flow ahead of the system will increase potential for convection and precipitation across the area Thursday and Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence exists in some isolated dry convection over northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties today. Shrink, Stretch, Taper was applied to PoPs grids between 20 and 04Z this afternoon to account for this as NBM continues to be subpar forecasting dry thunder. Coverage of isolated dry thunder is currently not great for Sunday afternoon when better model guidance depicts a slightly better setup for convection than Saturday. Increasing confidence continues for building heat and HeatRisk through the week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday afternoon. Saturday afternoon and evening their exists a low probability of VCTS for KTPH and KELY through late evening hours. Winds in and around any storms that do occur will be briefly gusty and erratic. Saturday afternoon wind gusts at KWMC, KEKO, KTPH, and KBAM will range 20-25KTs before diminishing after sunset. Stronger winds will remain for KWMC through Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon for fire weather zones 425/426/427. Sunday afternoon storms will gradually shift to a mix of wet and dry by later Sunday afternoon and evening as moisture increases across the region. Gradually warming temperatures will send afternoon high temperatures well above normal across all fire weather zones through mid week of next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.