textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather and temperatures in the 90s through Friday

* Heat Risk continues through Friday afternoon for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system beginning late Friday increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation along with cooler weekend temperatures

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are clear across northern and central this morning. An upper level ridge circulation is centered across central Nevada this morning. By later this evening, all models are showing this circulation near the four-corners region. This will help to develop a southerly flow aloft, bringing mid- level moisture northward. Precipitable water remains about a half-inch or so and CAPE values this afternoon remain limited across central Nevada with about 100-200J/kg forecast across northern Nye and southern White Pine counties. This should bring some cumulus buildups in the central. Though the probabilities continue to remain small, cannot rule out an isolated dry thunderstorm forming across central Nevada this afternoon so will keep this in the forecast. Winds will be on the light side with occasional breeziness to 20 to 25 mph over the area. Afternoon highs will remain on the warm side with readings in the 90s. Look for quiet conditions during the tonight period with lows in the 50s.

All models continue to depict the eastward progression of the upper ridge on Friday while a weak upper trough enters the frame in the eastern Pacific. Moisture continues to move northward, increasing the precipitable water values up to a half-inch to two-thirds of an inch. Surface based CAPE remains limited at 150-400J/kg but should provide enough energy once the atmosphere destabilizes during the afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms developing across northern Nevada. The central portions continue to look dry, though winds will breezy to locally windy during the afternoon. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph in the north but will be stronger in the central with gusts to 35 to 40 mph. In addition, any storm could produce outflow wind gusts to 55 mph. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s. Expecting only light showers during the overnight due to cooling and rising humidity levels. Amounts remain rather modest with the highest amounts forecast to be across portions of Humboldt and western Elko counties. Lows will be in the 50s.

The upper flow will switch to a more west, then a northwest direction on Saturday and Saturday night. The showers and storms will continue but remain relegated to locales north of I-80. High temperatures will be about seven to eleven degrees below recent highs as readings top out in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Winds will be breezy with northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Look for gradually clearing skies during the overnight with lows in the 40s.

Sunday through Thursday, models are depicting the upper ridge returning to the area with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s early next week with lows in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Modification to the NBM forecast was required to include isolated dry thunderstorms for central Nevada this afternoon. Also, increased slightly the wind speeds/gusts for Friday afternoon across central Nevada, and increase the coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada tomorrow afternoon and early evening. High confidence continues today and tomorrow with high temperatures remaining in the 90s. Confidence continues to remain low on the coverage and placement of isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada this afternoon and the dry convection in the north on Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will be less than 15 knots across the northern zones KWMC-KBAM- KEKO-KENV with gusts up to 25 knots over KTPH and KELY this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Mid-level moisture will be moving across the central fire zones this afternoon, bringing isolated dry thunderstorms to the area. By Friday, an upper level ridge will be centered over the four- corners region, and in combination with an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, will bring isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms to much of northern Nevada. In addition, winds will become breezy to locally windy across central Nevada with gusts to 35 mph across central Nevada. Headline fire weather watches have been previously issued and are on track this forecast period. These will be allowed to continue as-is. The atmosphere is expected to moisten during the overnight Friday for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the north. A mix of wet and dry showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday across the northern zones with cooler temperatures prevailing. Look for dry weather Sunday through next week with high temperatures climbing back into the 90s by early next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ425>427.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ424-437-438-469-470.