textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong, gusty southeast to south winds in Eastern Nevada today

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow through Friday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon

* Much cooler today

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure center is sitting over western Nevada and is expected to stay there through the next several days. Strong winds are currently ongoing in eastern Nevada as a result of this low and a wind advisory remains in effect through late this evening. The outer bands of this system are expected to bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through the next several days with the heaviest precipitation totals in the western half of the area. Some of this precipitation is expected to fall as snow in higher elevations, with snow levels dropping to around 7000 feet some nights this week. Daytime temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s while the low persists, with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. A few of the coldest valleys will even drop into the upper 20s. The low is expected to become mobile again late in the day Friday, making its exit to the north and east. Northwest to zonal flow will take its place, allowing dry and warming conditions to develop, with highs reaching the upper 70s/low 80s by Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence regarding the stalled low and its impacts and timing. Moderate confidence in precipitation totals as they continue to change from slight variances in the positioning of the low. Moderate confidence regarding timing of the low exit and the onset of northwest or zonal flow. No changes were made to base NBM output with this forecast.

AVIATION

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected around KWMC/KBAM/KTPH and any direct impacts would result in short lived degraded visibility and ceilings, as well as variable strong winds. Prevailing daytime gusty winds up to 30KT are expected at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV and up to 40KT at KELY.

FIRE WEATHER

Closed low pressure system centered over western Nevada will continue to give periods of precipitation and mountain snow over the western fire zones this afternoon until the evening. Strong gusty southerly winds affecting the eastern fire zones with drier conditions until the evening with a Wind Advisory until 8 pm tonight. A few strong thunderstorms are possible until the evening hours. Tomorrow, breezy winds over the eastern zones again with lower chances for precipitation and mountain snow during the day with higher RH values above thresholds. Overnight into Friday morning, precipitation and mountain snow will move eastward and affect all fire zones.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-033>035-039.