textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record warmth through Friday.

* Gusts winds Friday through Monday, though strongest gusts (of 35-45 mph) are expected Saturday and Sunday.

* Chance of showers Saturday through Tuesday, though highest probabilities (of 40-60%) will be on Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Clear skies across northern and central Nevada tonight. High pressure will build into the Great Basin through the rest of the workweek, leading to continued warmth with near record high temperatures across the climate sites through Friday.

Friday into the weekend, another upper low will cutoff and dig southward off the California Coast, with a secondary and stronger trough quickly moving into the Pacific Northwest on its heels. This will lead to stronger southwesterly flow into Saturday with breezy to locally windy conditions with max 24-hr gusts of 30 to 40 mph across northern and central Nevada with a 35% chance for wind gusts over 40 mph in Elko and a 75% chance in Ely.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well-above normal temperatures through Friday with moderate confidence in a cooler, wetter pattern into the weekend and early next week. Long range ensemble clusters in disagreement on how the two aforementioned troughs interact with the wetter cluster scenarios that combine the troughs across the Great Basin bringing greater chances for measurable precipitation by late Sunday into Monday. Low chances for mountain snowfall if the deeper trough outcome pans out with snow levels dropping below 10k ft with increased moisture.

AVIATION

VFR conditions at all terminals today with mostly sunny skies and winds generally at or below 10 knots. Wildfires in Northeast Nevada my result in periods of hazy skies at KEKO and KENV.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, along with light winds below 15 mph this afternoon. Increasing clouds Thursday afternoon across portions of FWZs 425 426 and 427, though not expecting any showers or storms. Temperatures remain well above normal Thursday with continued light winds. While conditions remain warm and dry on Friday, winds will become breezy by Friday afternoon as a storm system approaches Nevada from the Pacific Northwest. Most of northern and central Nevada will be impacted with gusty winds and a 40 to 60 percent chance of rain showers Saturday and Sunday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.