textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Wednesday

* Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Friday through Sunday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Chances for active thunderstorms this afternoon as mid-level moisture still situated over Nevada, with an increase in CAPE values across much of Central to Northeastern Nevada. Due to atmospheric staying at higher elevations and surface levels remaining warm and dry, much of the thunderstorms are expected to be dry, with a low probability of becoming a mix of wet/dry by the evening. The ongoing activity with increase in cloud cover will help bring temperatures down a bit, but relatively stay in the low 90s. Winds generally light, however, thunderstorm outflow gusts could reach up to 50 mph.

Tuesday, the weather pattern is starting to stretch out to a more northwesterly flow as both the upper trough and four corners high begin to weaken. Much of Nevada is expected to dry out with quieter weather, however, there is still chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon as CAPE values increase in the ranges of 150-200 J/kg, with some residual mid-level moisture overhead. By the evening, storms expected to dissipate, leaving quiet dry conditions. High temperatures expected to warm back up into the mid 90s.

Rest of the week, warming temperature trend each day as highs warm into the upper 90s, with the potential of seeing triple digits in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada by the end of the week. As of now, there is a moderate risk of heat-related illness each afternoon Friday through Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence for dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in most of Northern and Central Nevada. High confidence of warming temperatures through next week, with moderate confidence of heat related risks by the weekend.

AVIATION

Isolated, dry thunderstorms are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The highest chance of thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of KEKO by this afternoon. Winds will generally light, however any thunderstorms could produce gusty outflow winds reaching up to 50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated, dry thunderstorms are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Wednesday. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 knots and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Triple digit heat is likely in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Friday through Sunday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.