textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1154 AM PST Sun Jan 4 2026

* Valley rain and mountain snow showers through this evening

* Southerly winds will be gusty at times today, strongest across Central NV

* Snow levels lower this evening, with valleys across much of Eastern NV expected to receive between a trace and a half inch of snow into Monday morning

* Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, with below normal temperatures later next week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Continued southwesterly flow in the tight downstream gradient of the shortwave currently impacting the southwestern CONUS today will keep winds stronger this afternoon and evening, particularly in central NV. Wind gusts of 30-33 mph will diminish from west to east later this evening.

The gradient relaxes as the axis of the trough slowly makes its way through the state tonight and tomorrow. The axis is dragging a boundary that will drop temperatures across the region from west to east tonight and snow levels will follow suit. This will create changeover in lingering shower activity to snow for valley floors specifically in central and northeastern NV. Good frontogenesis along the I-80 corridor and into Elko County this evening and tonight will keep shower activity over northeastern and eastern NV into Monday. Shower activity will ebb across the area by mid Monday morning leaving snow accumulations for the valleys between a dusting and one inch.

A post frontal regime builds into the region sporting northerly flow but that is short lived this week as the larger parent trough to the northwest begins to migrate eastward. This will switch wind patterns back across to southwesterly as the ULT begins to encroach on the Great Basin by Wednesday. Current model runs have reversed an increasing moisture trend as now precipitation with the latter week system has begun to back off. This is due to two factors: the first being moisture availability. PW values with the current system are ranging 0.35-0.45 and moisture advection has been consistent with a south-southwesterly trajectory. The system later this week drags its axis across the northern half of the state but much of the associated moisture with said system gets scoured by the Sierras to the west. This results in PW values closer to seasonal averages between 0.25-0.35 inches. The second factor is residence time as the late week system drags its axis into and through the Great Basin in a matter of approximately 36 hours. This is much faster than the current system which is persisting across the southwestern CONUS this weekend and Monday. Despite good frontogenesis across northern NV on Thursday, the incoming system while colder will not be a big system in terms of accumulations.

Beyond Thursday ridging and high pressure will build into the region from the southwest lending to a quieter pattern next weekend and the week beyond.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in precipitation types at various elevations through the evening as well as gusty southerly winds across central NV this afternoon and evening. Moderate confidence in snow levels dropping to valley floors by Monday morning. Low confidence in precipitation totals and timing with incoming system later this week. No major grid changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

ISOLD to SCT -SHRA will continue developing this afternoon through the overnight at all terminals. CIGS/VSBY will primarily be VFR with reductions decreasing to MVFR/IFR during periods of showers. Winds are expected to diminish this evening with speeds less than 15KT during the overnight. -SHRA will change over to a mix of rain and snow showers before completely transitioning to -SHSN. Expect showers to diminish during the morning hours tomorrow with light winds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.