textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* High pressure produces warm and dry weather through Wednesday.

* Record high temperatures are likely today through Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures. * A low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms exists north of I-80 Wednesday evening.

* Increasing likelihood of Advisory level wind speeds on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging over the southwest continues to keep weather conditions dry with warmer temperatures with a 75-100% probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 85 degrees. By Wednesday, cooler temperatures begin to move in albeit with highs still seeing a 30% chance of reaching above 80 degrees (with the exception of West Wendover near 90 degrees).

High winds for Wednesday as southerly flow strengthens from a high pressure over the four corners and a low pressure just off the Pacific Coast. Models are showing the low pressure moving east, kicking the high pressure out of the southwest. Winds will start coming from the south and transition to a more northwesterly flow by the evening with speeds up to 20-30 mph, gusts as high as 35-40 mph. Mid-level moisture over the southwest will push into Nevada Wednesday with a chance for some active weather over northern Nevada north of I-80, however probabilities are dropping below 10% now from recent model runs are trending more into the drier solution over the region.

Thursday through the weekend, quiet weather returns over Nevada as the low pressure weakens to the north, leaving a near zonal flow over the region with much cooler temperatures as highs drop into the 70s with a few spots staying in the 80s Friday, and reaching to near normal temperatures by Sunday. Winds will also be light for many of the days with some breezy northerly winds Saturday up to 10-15 mph, gusts up to 25 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of near record high temperatures today and tomorrow. Moderate confidence of cooling trend Wednesday through Saturday. Low confidence for shower activity Wednesday. Moderate confidence for high winds Wednesday prompting potential Wind Advisory. Adjusted winds in the NBM to better reflect recent model runs.

AVIATION

VFR conditions remain in place through Tuesday afternoon under mostly sunny and clear skies with a few high level clouds overhead at times. Southwesterly afternoon breezes will also be in place with gusts generally between 20KT and 25KT.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.