textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty Winds Today Upwards of 30-50MPH.

* Impactful High-Elevation Mountain Snow Along the Passes.

* A Strong Cold Front will Bring a Declining Temperature Trend.

* Potential for More Precipitation in the Second System Early Next Week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Currently, we are sitting around the 40s to 50s in most of the CWA, with a few bands of clouds extending most of the watch area. At this time, it is important to shout-out this trough currently sitting over the Pacific Coast states which will very soon become the key to our forecast as we proceed through the weekend. As we move through today, the sfc low to our west will start pushing up on the ridge to our east, with the cold front over California beginning to create strong compression in the surface pressure gradient, giving us strong gusty winds, which is the biggest highlight we have at this time. There is currently a wind advisory in effect for the entire CWA, with potential for wind gusts in the valleys to reach the mid 30s to low 40s, and potential for gusts in the lower 50s along the mountain passes today. This will create possible impacts in blowing dust reducing visibility, and high profile vehicles may find travel difficult. Winds for the most part are going to be southerly until the front passes through tonight (around 8-10pm- ish for the western- most parts of the area, and 8-10am- ish for the eastern- most parts of the area), calming them down (unlike the child on my flight back) and bringing a generally northerly flow. Along this front, we are expecting to see some weak instability and broad moisture advection off of the Pacific Coast. With the potential for lift on isolated shortwaves ahead of the front, and general synoptic lifting along the front, it can be expected that scattered showers will present themselves across the CWA, with potential for mountain snow in the higher elevations later this evening, especially in the southern regions. Long story short, to quote Ollie Williams, Its Gon Rain! Rainfall rates themselves should remain relatively low, but our 6 hour QPF values ranging from 0.05-0.6. Higher instability will be present in parts of White Pine, and northern Nye counties, so some isolated thunderstorms do pose a slight risk for higher localized rainfall rates, but the models are currently keeping rainfall rates generally below 0.2/hour. In terms of snowfall, the highest mountain peaks could be expecting up to 6 of snow, with the lower mountain passes spitting out T-2 of snowfall. The NBM is going to keep the snow- level around 8,000 this morning, lowering to about 6,500 tonight ahead of the front, so unfortunately not quite to the valleys before the precipitation starts clearing out of the region around the midnight to 3ish hours for the eastern half of the CWA, 9-10pm-ish hours for the western half.

Looking at the temperatures, it is time to start breaking out those jackets as we will begin to see a major cooling trend overall. Highs for today will be sitting around the mid 40s to the upper 50s, with a nearly uniform set of lows in the mid 30s. As we push the weekend, passed the cold front, highs will see a peak slightly warmer than today in tomorrows drier airmass, before general cooling starting in the upper 40s/ low 50s, and eventually decreasing to the mid 20s to 30s by the end of next week, but that is still far out, so specifics still have relatively low confidence.

Fast forwarding to early next week, another storm system will approach our later from the Pacific with a strong trough. This area of low-pressure will bring another round of precipitation to our area Monday into Tuesday time-frame. As it stands now, this second system will have slightly cooler air and more moisture to work with than the first one, so it could pack more of a punch. Diving into more specifics, the odds of seeing 1+ inch of snow are pretty high across the higher elevations and some of the summits. At this time, most of the lower elevation areas may miss out on the impactful snow chances (greater than 1 inch), but model guidance is suggesting that minor snow accumulations may still occur. In addition, rainfall amounts will likely be higher than the first system. NBM guidance suggest rainfall amounts around a half-inch or greater across the entire CWA with this secondary system. Like with the first system, this system will also be a quick hitter, so not expecting any flooding issues at this time. Tuesday afternoon could once again be breezy, with wind gusts between 15-30mph across the area.

As we look even further into the week, another system may impact the area late Wednesday and beyond. This system is projected to be the coldest of the 3. In fact, it is even possible that the higher elevations of the CWA may not even get above freezing for a few days in this time frame. It is way too early to dive into specifics as we are 5+ days out, but as it stands now, this system will have the greatest shot of producing snow across the entire CWA, even the chance of impactful snow all the way to the valleys. We will continue to reevaluate the forecast over the next few days, so stay tuned!

Confidence: High confidence for gusty winds, and mountain snow today, with a decreasing temperature trend as the week progresses. Moderate confidence in the timing and impacts of the early week system. Low confidence on the third system coming through next week.

AVIATION

Strong gusty winds will continue across all terminals ahead of an incoming weather system expected later today. Winds S-SW15-25G30-40KT expected at all terminals with gusts diminishing later tonight. Deteriorating weather conditions due to -SHRA will expand west to east during the evening with CIG/VSBY reductions to MVFR/IFR expected. Look for -SHRA transitioning to -SHRASN over KELY (seventy to eighty percent probability) around 06-09Z. A -SHRASN mixture is also possible (thirty to forty percent probability) at KEKO after cold frontal passage. Look for precipitation to diminish Saturday morning with a return to VFR conditions and lighter winds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-033>041.