textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening across far eastern Nevada

* Smoke from area fires causing visibility and respiratory issues over northern NV today

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to spread west as the week progresses. Thunderstorm potential still exists today along the Utah border and in northeastern Elko county but chances are low, at about 5 to 10 percent. Chances persist for tomorrow but will be even lower than today. The high pressure system is expected to expand far enough west by Thursday to keep moisture out of the forecast area. Smoke from both local and Pacific Northwest wildfires is also expected to have local impacts during this time, particularly in northern Nevada. A very smoky morning was observed in Elko today and several more are expected to follow. Daytime southerly to southwest flow is expected to help clear smoke during the days, however calm or northerly flow during the nights will allow smoke to increase for the late night to early morning hours. Smoke concentrations are expected to be high enough to cause issues for sensitive groups, especially during early morning when concentrations will be highest. The final focus of this forecast will be the heat. Temperatures are expected to climb as the high pressure system establishes itself and widespread Major HeatRisk levels are expected by Friday and especially Saturday. Widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees are expected for Saturday, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will be in the 60s, somewhat limiting overnight recoveries. While the heat is expected to be at its worst on Saturday, long term outlooks indicate its not leaving any time soon, with intense heat favored through mid to late next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in storm potential today and tomorrow. High confidence for smoke impacts through at least Thursday. High confidence in extreme heat, particularly for this weekend. No changes were made to NBM output.

AVIATION

Smoke is not impacting any terminal at this time but may bring periods of decreased visibility to KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV through the next several days. South to southwest winds are expected today, with gusty winds up to 25KT at KELY and KTPH. There is a low chance of -TSRA at KENV today, and as usual any storms could cause strong erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected through tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Low percentage thunderstorm chances continue to persist in zones 425 and 470 today. Any storms that form are not expected to persist long enough for meaningful rainfall but could produce new starts from lightning. Gusty erratic winds would also accompany any storms. Otherwise, standard afternoon breezes gusting 20-25 mph are expected across the area, along with dry and warming conditions.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.