textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Critical fire weather conditions today for portions of central Nevada

* Low chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Oregon and Idaho borders, as well as the Utah border, today and Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cut off low remains poised over NorCal this morning before ejecting east along the northern Nevada border Friday. The position of the low over NorCal today and tomorrow will produce elevated south- southwesterly winds across most of the Great Basin today, especially across central Nevada. The strongest winds will be focused across White Pine County and gusts 30 to 35 MPH, reaching 45 MPH across the high terrain should be expected. Combined with low relative humidity, this has prompted a Red Flag Warning this afternoon and evening for portions of central Nevada. Patchy blowing dust will also be present. Breezes will be present Friday, though winds are expected to be more modest than today. The upper low and associated weak surface boundary will not produce significant rainfall with atmospheric moisture being the limiting factor. However, that being said, locations along the Idaho and Oregon borders will observe isolated to scattered light rain showers or along with isolated dry thunderstorms today and Friday. Concurrently, significant moisture across Utah, thanks to a northerly push of subtropical moisture from the desert southwest, will spill into portions of eastern Nevada and will also produce isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated dry thunderstorms along the Utah state line.

As the cut off low ejects east along the Nevada border Friday morning, moisture will also be pushed east out of the forecast area, producing dry weather and generally light winds for this weekend. Temperatures across northern Nevada will cool several degrees Thursday night and Friday as the low and associated cooler air mass move east. Temperatures gradually warm thru the weekend with a return to daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the valleys by Sunday. A low chance (10%) for rain showers across central Nevada will be present early next week as a weak Pacific low pressure system moves into central California from the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon within portions of central Nevada due to elevated winds and low relative humidity. Moderate confidence exists for showers and thunderstorms along the northern and eastern NV borders today and tomorrow. Significant grid edits required within PoP grids to better represent thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected thru Thursday night. Elevated south-southwestelry winds will be present across the forecast area with the strongest gusts of 30KT to 35KT located across central Nevada terminals including KTPH and KELY. Patchy blowing dust may cause brief reductions in VIS, primarily at KTPH and KELY, though confidence is not high enough to include BLDU in the TAF. There will also be a low chance (10%) of VCTS for KELY and KENV this afternoon and evening, though confidence is again not high enough to include VCTS in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire weather conditions will be present today for FWZs 426 and 427. Elevated south-soputhwesterly winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph will combine with minimum afternoon RH values of 10-20%. Elevated winds will also be present across FWZ 425 with gusts 30-40 mph, though minimum afternoon RH values are expected to reside above 15%, mitigating critical fire weather concerns.

A cut off low and associated weak frontal boundary will continue to provide a low chance (10% to 20%) for light rain showers and isolated dry thunderstorms along the Idaho and Oregon borders today and Friday. Wetting rains are not expected under any such activity. There is also a low chance (20%) for light showers and isolated dry thunderstorms along the Utah border where atmospheric moisture profiles and instability are just enough to produce convective activity while the more robust activity remains to the east within Utah. Convection will be present Friday afternoon and evening along the Utah border as well.

Cut off low and associated weak frontal boundary eject to the east Friday with generally fair weather anticipated this weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning is in effect today from 11AM to 8PM PDT for NV- FWZ426, NV-FWZ427.