textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather will continue through at least the middle of next week. * Warming trend this weekend.

* Unseasonably warm Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite imagery for this morning is showing a mix of relatively clear skies to the west and thin, high clouds in the east. This is all due to upper level high pressure that is currently situated over the eastern Pacific. The resulting northerly flow will keep a lid on any active weather through at least the early to middle portions of next week. Looking at near surface conditions, temperature/dewpoint spreads during the overnight have remained stubbornly close to each other, with the spread about 5F or less. There is a low probability of fog/freezing fog formation in the valleys as a result. High temperatures will slowly rise as heights slowly increase during the upcoming weekend, with readings becoming above normal levels next week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s through the period. Afternoon breezes with gusts to 15 to 20 mph are possible across the northernmost sections of the forecast area.

Beginning next week Saturday, models are trying to hint at the possibility of a strong upper trough trying to push into Nevada. Although still very early, there are a few signs of an atmospheric river component with this system that long range models are picking up on. So the possibility of a return of rain and snow showers will need to be watched over the several days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in upper ridge building over the Great Basin. This feature is expected to last through the mid- to late portions of next week, bringing dry conditions and relatively light winds.

Moderate to high confidence exists with respect to an upper level trough passage across the Pacific Northwest through this weekend. This will bring slightly higher winds across far northern Nevada this weekend. There is low to very low confidence in the upper pattern transitioning to a strong trough at the end of next week as models continue to hint at a possible return to active weather across the western United States.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions across Nevada through Sunday morning with west to southwest winds of 5KT to 15 KT with occasional gusts up to 20KT possible.

KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to a communication disruption.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.