textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather returns Wednesday though breezes will be present at the end of the week.

* Gradual warming trend through Thursday, followed by cooling trend over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

Upper pattern will become relatively quiet through Sunday, as models show a very weak and broad scale subtle troughing over Nevada and most of central and southern California. Just to the northwest of this trough, a weak shallow upper level shortwave ridge will set up over northern California, and SE Oregon. This flow setup looks to keep Nevada dry for the next several days, however with the westerly Jet just to the north, models have trended higher with the winds as the pressure gradient over northern Nevada has tightened over recent runs. So will need to watch for possible fire weather issues as westerly winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible over northern Humboldt and Elko counties through Saturday. Elsewhere winds will be lighter out of the W-SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Monday, models show a northern stream upper level trough moving through Nevada, models have come into better agreement with this system as both the GFS and ECMWF show a fast moving system. Another change is that models are showing the potential of some light isolated showers accompanying trough passage Monday afternoon and evening, with the trough exiting east Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday ridging returns bringing another period of quiet weather conditions back to the Silver State. Temperature wise a quick warming trend will last through Thursday as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s. Friday through Monday a cooling trend will see temperatures falling into the mid 70s for highs. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a much drier pattern lasting through Monday of next week.

There is low confidence in the potential for a 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers across northern Nevada as an upper trough passes through Monday of next week.

There is moderate to high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Thursday morning afternoon. Winds will be light to breezy across most of central and northern Nevada, including all terminals, with W to SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across far northern Nevada will be stronger out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gust to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will remain low to elevated through Sunday, as dry conditions will be likely across the state, even as continued weak broad scale troughing remains over Nevada. The only exception to this will be across the northern tier of fire zones of 437, 438, 469 ,and 470. The reason for this is that models have trended stronger with the pressure gradient leading to stronger winds during the afternoon. Winds will run out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 Mph with gusts up to 35 MPH and elevated fire weather concerns, whereas SW winds will be lighter to the south at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Temperatures look to warm into the mid 80s through Thursday, with a cooling trend beginning Friday through next Wednesday with highs dropping into the mid 70s. Monday a weak upper trough passing through Nevada may bring a low 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers for northern Nevada, amounts at this time look to be very light with only a trace to 0.05 of rainfall possible for select locations.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.