textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances through tonight for eastern portions of NV

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon

* Shower and storms chances linger along eastern border through Wednesday

* Above average temperatures and HeatRisk continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An HPC over the Four Corners region responsible for an active monsoon week over the Silver State will deepen and retrograde to the west next week. This effectively will cutoff monsoonal flow to the region (though CAPE/PW values stay robust along the eastern NV border through Wednesday) and create hazardous Heat Risk conditions across the area by end of the week.

For the remainder of Saturday, radar/satellite imagery depicts cloud buildups and storms beginning to develop over Elko County this afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast to be mainly over Elko County and northern Lander, Eureka, and White Pine Counties. PW values this afternoon over those areas are ranging 0.8-1.0 inch so localized brief heavy rainfall is possible where storms form. Storm motion is relatively quick but training storm motion especially over locations previously receiving heavy rain this week will keep minor flooding concerns in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. Other hazards with storms on Saturday include brief strong wind gusts and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

As the HPC deepens on Sunday monsoonal moisture is shunted eastward and storm chances will be confined to extreme eastern portions of Elko and White Pine Counties along the UT border. This setup will remain in place through mid week. Beyond Wednesday the HPC will continue to strengthen and retrograde back westward over the SW CONUS. This will significantly dry out the region even further ending precipitation chances in the near future. The bigger concern will be the increase in afternoon high temperatures under the dome of high pressure. Highs in the upper 90s and triple digits late week and next weekend will increase the risk of heat related illness across the area. Heat advisories and other products are most certainly possible later this week as a hot weather pattern entrenches itself over the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Typical adjustments were made to the Wind/WindGust grids as NBM normally undervalues wind speeds for hot/dry/windy conditions such as those created in NW NV today. High confidence exists in shower and storm chances over eastern NV Saturday afternoon. A combination of SST and SerpISC was used to edit hourly Wx grids this afternoon as NBM misrepresented storm chances and coverage today. Moderate confidence exists in lingering storms over the eastern border through Wednesday. Moderate confidence exists in above average temperatures and HeatRisk later this week and next weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday afternoon. -TSRA forecasted at KEKO, KELY, KBAM, and KENV will create momentary MVFR/IFR conditions along with brief gusty and erratic winds. Westerly afternoon wind gusts at all terminals will range 22-25 KTs. Gusty winds will diminish after sunset Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum RH values in zone 437 today passed critical thresholds in the latest forecast. A Red Flag Warning has been issued as a result, with winds gusting around 35 mph in that area. This criteria may be reached again tomorrow in the same area. Thunderstorm chances also continue today, with isolated storms forecast mainly in Elko County. After tomorrow, winds will be elevated to near critical but no critical fire weather conditions are expected.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-038.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NV-FWZ437.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.