textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry thru Friday

* Afternoon breezes present each day thru the week

* Stronger winds Saturday combine with low minimum relative humidity to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(Today thru next Tuesday)

Zonal flow pattern remains in place thru Friday and dry and warm weather will be present. The typical afternoon breezes will also be in place. Daytime high temperatures will reside around 10 degrees warmer than normal for most location across the forecast area. A weak shortwave trof passing thru on Thursday will bring a few degrees of cooling across northern Nevada, but temperatures will rebound by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s with upper 30s across the typical colder valleys.

Robust upper level low will move into the PacNW Saturday with upper level flow over Nevada subsequently transitioning to southwesterly in response. The resulting tightening of the pressure gradient will bring a notable increase in wind speeds Saturday. Gusts 30 to 35 mph are currently forecast and future scrutiny of numerical solutions will be required to check for the possibility of wind and fire weather headlines for the upcoming weekend. Atmospheric moisture is also indicated to increase across the Great Basin under the stronger southwesterly flow regime. This will be conducive for convective buildups and isolated thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Though relatively low confidence is expressed at this time as current prognostics indicate a very borderline environment for thunderstorm development and convective buildups look to be the more likely fare at this time.

Continued opportunity for elevated afternoon winds and low chances of thunderstorms as a second upper level low looks to impact the Great Basin early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Utilized various model blends Saturday and Sunday afternoon to produce PoP and weather fields that looked reasonable based on latest forecast prognostics. Additional minor changes were also made to the NBM forecast. Confidence is high with regard to warm temperatures thru the week and dry conditions. Confidence is low in elevated to critical fire conditions Saturday along with chances of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals thru at least Tuesday night. Winds will occasionally be breezy with gusts around 20KT this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Weather is expected to remain dry and warm across Northern and Central Nevada thru Friday. Winds will be generally light aside for the typical afternoon breezes with gusts around 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digit to low teen range each afternoon with daytime high temperatures residing around 10 degrees warmer than normal thru Friday as well. Weather pattern shifts Saturday with winds becoming stronger and gusts 30 to 35 mph look likely at this time. Minimum afternoon relative humidity also looks to reside less than 15 percent and the combination of elevated wind and low RH Saturday may lead to elevated or critical fire weather conditions and the forecast will need to be watched closely in the coming days. The pattern shift on Saturday will also provide opportunity for convective buildups and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoons as atmospheric moisture is indicated to increase across the Great Basin under stronger southwesterly flow. Though relatively low confidence is expressed at this time as current prognostics indicate a very borderline environment for thunderstorm development and convective buildups look to be the more likely fare at this time with activity focused in and near fire weather zones 425, 470, abnd 469.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.