textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry thru Friday

* Afternoon breezes present each day thru the week

* Stronger winds Saturday combine with low minimum relative humidity to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Zonal to slightly northwest flow will continue to be the dominant pattern for the next several days, resulting in warm and dry conditions across the coverage area. Temperatures will continue to be about ten degrees above normal during this time with daytime highs in the 80s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Winds are expected to strengthen on Wednesday, ahead of an embedded weak trough, with gusts 30-35 mph and sustained winds around 20 mph, with winds in central Nevada being slightly weaker than those in northern Nevada. Full trough passage is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will result in about five degrees of cooling in far northern Nevada for Thursday. Winds also drop back to more typical afternoon breezes, with gusts expected to drop back below 20 mph. Winds begin to increase again on Friday as a strong upper low moves into the Pacific Northwest and the tightening pressure gradient ahead of it reaches into the Great Basin, with gusts 30-35 mph forecast again. Atmospheric moisture is also expected to increase slightly and a borderline environment for thunderstorm/convective buildup is currently forecast for this weekend, with thunderstorm development slightly favored at this time. High model variability takes over the forecast to start next week due to strong disagreement in the path of the low, however the current favored solution is for continued above average temperatures and somewhat spotty thunderstorm development.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in elevated winds tomorrow, and in above average temperatures through Saturday. Moderate confidence with the low pressure center and its impacts, however confidence is low for where the low will track, which could change the intensity of impacts. Confidence has increased to moderate for elevated to critical fire conditions this weekend, but remains low for thunderstorm chances. No changes were made to base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon with no precipitation in the forecast. Tuesday afternoon winds will be light at all terminals. Wednesday afternoon sustained winds at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO will range 15-20KTs with gusts of 23-25KTs through early Wednesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Tuesday evening will be a quiet period for fire weather concerns under light winds and pleasant conditions across all fire weather zones. On Wednesday hot, dry, windy conditions will exists across fire zones 438 and 469. However, fuel status is not quite yet at criteria for a Red Flag Warning. That being said fire weather concerns are elevated for those zones on Wednesday due to aforementioned conditions.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.