textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers and thunderstorms impact central and eastern Nevada today and tomorrow

* Fair weather returns Wednesday though breezes will be present at the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a Pacific low advecting moisture into central Nevada. This moisture is expected to facilitate thunderstorm development within the next few hours, with storms expected to expand into eastern Elko County overnight. Storms persist until late tomorrow afternoon, by which point the low will have traveled far enough east to cut off moisture over Nevada. Rainfall accumulation looks very hit or miss at this time but the stronger storms are expected to produce around a tenth of an inch of rain along their path. Cloud cover with these storms is also expected to limit high temperatures tomorrow, with Humboldt County seeing highs around 80 while more eastern locations will be limited to the lower 70s. Fair weather is expected for the second half of the week, with dry conditions and highs returning to the low 80s across the area. A new upper level trough is expected to clip the area for Friday and Saturday. No precipitation is currently expected with this system, however winds will increase and temperatures decrease. Cool and breezy conditions are expected to continue to start next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow. Confidence remains moderate for rainfall totals. High confidence in fair weather through the end of the week. No changes to NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and winds under 10KT will prevail at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO through the next 24 hours. KENV is also expecting VFR and light winds, however showers are expected to enter the vicinity around 06Z. KTPH and KELY are expecting thunderstorms this afternoon, with erratic gusty winds, lowered ceilings and brief lowered visibility expected with storms. Prevailing afternoon winds will also gust around 20KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and thunderstorms are expected in zones 425, 426 and 427 today, spreading into zones 469 and 470 overnight. Wetting rains are possible with storms although not guaranteed, with the best odds centered in zone 425. Weather is expected to dry out tomorrow evening, becoming fair through the end of the week. Increasingly gusty winds are expected Friday and this weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.