textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to re-develop today. Excessive rainfall is possible across portions of northern and central Nevada through the evening

* Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon over central and eastern Nevada could produce damaging winds and small hail

* Temperatures continue cooling with readings below to near normal

* Precipitation chances return to portions of eastern NV Monday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The Four Corners High/Upper Level Trough (4C/ULT) setup that has controlled the weather pattern over the SW CONUS recently has begun to break down Saturday as the HPC treks eastward into eastern NM. Enough residual monsoon moisture and remnants of TS Iselle are providing sufficient moisture availability for strong to severe thunderstorm activity over eastern and east-central NV Saturday afternoon. A mid-level jet over northern UT/southern WY is generating ample shear and forcing over eastern NV. Instability already in place, evidenced by early morning storm activity, is being enhanced by surface heating this afternoon. The results will be strong thunderstorms developing over southern Eureka, White Pine, and southeastern Elko Counties this afternoon. Main threats will be surface winds gusts of 60-85 mph, hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter, and potential for localized flooding due to excessive rainfall. These threats will continue through early Saturday evening.

The region dries out from west to east overnight tonight with clearing skies and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. The ULT over the NW CONUS takes over as the main driver of the pattern over the western CONUS headed into next week. This will result in a series of shortwaves riding the parent trough flow across the Great Basin. The first of said waves will traverse from central CA into NV on Monday morning. Eastern NV will be in its downstream flow where enough moisture and forcing will be present to touch off showers and thunderstorms along the eastern border Monday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations of up to 0.10 of an inch are possible especially over eastern Elko County. Temperatures over the area this week will be regulated by repeated bouts of cloud cover and precipitation chances keeping afternoon highs close to seasonal norms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for shower and thunderstorm activity that could produce excessive rainfall and severe weather Saturday afternoon. Moderate confidence remains for a cooling trend into next week. Low confidence exists for precipitation chances and amounts Monday afternoon. No major grids changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions to be the dominant flight category over all terminals this afternoon. VCTS and -TSRA conditions over KELY and KENV with a PROB30 for same conditions over KEKO and KTPH. MVFR conditions or lower are possible with passing thunderstorms over terminals. General southwesterly/westerly winds around 8-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, however gusty erratic winds from passing thunderstorms could reach up to 45-55 kts. Thunderstorms expected to dissipate by the early evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central zones and southern portions of 469 and 470 as the upper trough to the northwest pushes the tropical storm remnants east into Utah. 437, 424, and 438 are expected to have calm weather conditions, however there is still a low probability of some thunderstorm development from residual moisture over zone 438. Greatest impacts will be gusty erratic winds up to 50-60 mph from thunderstorm outflows, cloud to ground lightning, and brief periods of heavy rainfall.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.