textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend will create moderate HeatRisk this week

* Hot, dry, windy fire weather conditions possible Friday and Saturday

* System next weekend will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures to the region

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Zonal flow over the western CONUS will continue into the early week with a ULT over west central Canada positioned to the north and a building HPC over northern Mexico to the south. Low level flow will gain a southerly component and remain WSW over the Great Basin through the week due to a short wave meandering off the CA coast. Temperatures each day will trend upward a few degrees each day reaching the mid to upper 90s across the area by Tuesday. This will create moderate Heat Risk for the region each afternoon through Thursday. While heat products are unlikely, those sensitive to hot temperatures should take precaution to avoid heat related illness.

Some diurnal forcing Tuesday and Wednesday could tap into some instability over the area particularly in northeastern NV. Current guidance keeps PWat values (0.4-0.5 inches) a bit too low for nothing more than builds up Tuesday afternoon. Moisture availability is slightly better Wednesday (0.5-0.6 inches) over northeastern NV where a low possibility chance exists for isolated dry thunder.

A strengthening LPC and well-amplified ULT off the western coast of Canada will meander southeast into the PNW by Friday. This will tighten the pressure gradient over the region, especially northern NV. Current guidance is growing the potential for hot, dry, windy fire weather concerns both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The system will drags its axis across the northern border Friday PM and Saturday increasing moisture in the area. Forcing seems a bit insufficient at this time for meaningful precipitation or thunderstorm development but future model runs should be monitored. The wave will drag a cold front through the region bringing cooler temperatures to the area by next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a warming trend and moderate HeatRisk for the area mid week. Growing confidence in a high dry windy setup for Friday and Saturday continues. Low confidence exists in the timing and placement of a system that will bring unsettled weather to the region next weekend. Sunday PM hourly grids were edited to introduce some Iso DryT along the northern border. This was in collaboration with BOI and PIH offices who were also increasing PoPs in that area.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast and all terminals through Monday afternoon. No precipitation is anticipated at this time. Afternoon winds at KTPH and KELY will gust out of the south at 18-20KTs through early Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet weather conditions return across the state with warming temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Next round of isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon mainly over east-central Nevada, but probabilities remain around ten to fifteen percent at this time. Winds will be occasionally breezy with no fire weather concerns through Thursday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.