textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather and temperatures in the 90s through Friday

* Heat Risk continues through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system beginning late Friday increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation along with cooler weekend temperatures

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly clear this morning with light winds. This is due to upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific at this time. Look for the upper ridge will slowly move east today with its circulation centered over central Nevada by this evening. Winds will be out of the northwest and breezy with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Highs will be above normal with readings in the 90s. The weather will be quiet tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

By Thursday, all models are showing the upper ridge circulation somewhere over the four-corners region of the United States. This will bring a southerly flow across central Nevada and allow some mid-level moisture to seep into the the region. Precipitable water values are expected to be around a half-inch with weak instability. CAPE values are fairly consistent with readings of 100-200J/kg. Will keep the isolated dry thunderstorms in the forecast for central Nevada. Little to no precipitation is expected. Surface winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, though thunderstorm wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with any storm. Highs will be in the 90s. Look for storms to eventually subside after midnight with lows in the 50s.

On Friday, the ridge continues its eastward migration while a weak upper trough positions itself over the eastern Pacific. The upper flow will remain out of the south and moisture will continue to move northward across northern and central Nevada. Chances for storms will increase towards the afternoon. Forecast CAPE values are expected to be around 300 to 500J/kg with the highest readings in northern Nevada with modest instability. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph in the north but will be stronger in the central with gusts to 35 to 40 mph. Any storm could produce outflow wind gusts to 55 mph. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 50s.

The upper flow will switch to a more west, then a northwest direction on Saturday and Saturday night. The showers and storms will continue but remain relegated to locales north of I-80. High temperatures will be about seven to eleven degrees below recent highs as readings top out in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Winds will be breezy with northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Look for gradually clearing skies during the overnight with lows in the 40s.

Sunday through Wednesday, models are depicting the upper ridge returning to the area with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s by Monday with lows in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM forecast was adjusted to include isolated dry thunderstorms for central Nevada on Thursday, increase wind speeds/gusts on Friday across central Nevada, and increase isolated dry thunderstorm coverage across northern Nevada also on Friday. Confidence remains high in the near term as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Confidence continues to remain low on the coverage and placement of isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada Thursday and the dry convection in the north on Friday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Late morning/afternoon breezes will be picking up after 18Z NW10-20G30KT. Expect winds to diminish after 02Z this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Weather conditions will be quiet today across northern and central Nevada. Some afternoon cumulus buildups are expected across the central Nevada zones with mostly sunny skies in the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will exists this afternoon across the northern zones as winds will be breezy with gusts 25 to 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values in the single digits and teens. The upper ridge will shift east today and is expected to be over the four-corners region Thursday. This will create a southerly flow aloft over central Nevada, bringing mid- level moisture to fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427. Outflow wind gusts to 50 mph Have kept the isolated dry thunderstorms in this area during the afternoon. By Friday, the southerly flow will continue and bring moisture north. Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will spread to the north on Friday, leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. In addition, winds and minimum relative humidity thresholds are approaching critical levels across the central Nevada for Friday afternoon and will bear watching. Any thunderstorms Friday afternoon could produce wind gusts to 50 mph. On Saturday, expect cooler conditions with higher minimum relative humidity values across northern and central Nevada. Quiet weather will continue through next week as the high pressure system tries to reassert dominance in the weather pattern, leading to warming temperatures and drying conditions.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.