textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 5-15% across central Nevada through the early evening hours

* Unseasonably warm Saturday through Memorial Day

* Strong, gusty winds expected next week Tuesday

* Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Build-ups are noted across central Nevada though no lightning has been seen in northwest Nye county. Look for the clouds to gradually dissipate from central Nevada skies tonight, leading to mostly clear conditions. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

Mid-level moisture will be on the increase tomorrow per the latest model trends. In addition, limited instability with lifted indices at around -1C will be prevalent across northern and central Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop with thunderstorm probability sitting around twenty percent in central Nevada and ten to fifteen percent in northern Nevada. Cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph are the biggest threats at this time. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. Look for skies to scatter out during the night with lows in the 40s.

Look for another round of convective activity on Sunday with isolated thunderstorms again possible over portions of northern and central Nevada. Highs will be a touch warmer in the afternoon with readings generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will be breezy but below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A change in the weather is expected to occur early next week. On Monday, a weak upper trough will move through with isolated convection possible. Highs will remain above normal with readings in the 70s and 80s once again. Winds will be breezy especially across portions of northern Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. By Tuesday, an east Pacific storm system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and dive to the southeast towards Nevada. Look for breezy to windy conditions across the region, with west to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. Some locales may require a wind advisory. Highs will be seven to twelve degrees cooler than the previous day as a cold front marches across the forecast area. This will bring increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. The activity will continue during the overnight with readings in the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday and Thursday, look for the system to persist over the area. This will allow for the valley rain and mountain snow showers to continue with temperatures below normal. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 20s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is low to moderate with the timing and placement of the isolated dry thunderstorms for the upcoming weekend. WPC PoP forecast was used in place of NBM. Confidence remains high with respect to the above normal temperatures this weekend. Low forecast confidence continues with valley rain and mountain snow showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hour period. Cumulus build-ups to continue into the early evening hours tonight near KTPH with convection not expected at terminal. For tomorrow afternoon, isolated TS possible across KTPH, KELY, KENV, and KEKO terminals during the late afternoon with wind gusts to 35KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Mid-level moisture will continue to move across the US Highway 50 corridor this evening. The probability of thunderstorms is about five to ten percent this evening. However, by tomorrow, limited and moisture and instability will help to bring isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Across the central zones, about a twenty percent probability for thunderstorms exist, while in the northern sections, about ten to fifteen percent. Any storms that form are expected to be more on the dry side. In addition, outflow wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with any storm. By Sunday, isolated storms are expected to be mostly in Elko county, though some build-ups are possible in west-central Nevada. Strong, gusty southwest to west winds anticipated Tuesday associated with the passage of a cold front. Valley rain and high elevation snowfall is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Look for cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values during the mid- week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.