textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Record warmth this weekend

* Cooler with periods of valley rain and mountain snow beginning Monday night

* Unsettled weather thru next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: One final handful of broken high temperature records is in the forecast for today and tomorrow before a cooler and wetter pattern takes hold this coming week. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the 30s tonight and tomorrow night. The first wave of precipitation associated with an approaching upper level trough arrives Monday afternoon in northern Nevada, spreading into central Nevada overnight. Snow levels also drop to between 6-7000 feet during this period, before returning to around 8000 feet during the day on Tuesday. The majority of precipitation is still expected to fall Tuesday evening and night. Conditions dry out somewhat for Wednesday as the first wave exits during the morning hours and the second wave makes its entry during the evening and overnight. This second wave looks slightly drier but much colder than the first, with temperatures dropping to around five degrees below normal by Friday. Snow levels drop to 5000 feet or less with this system and as a result valley locations may see some snow on Thursday, although meaningful accumulation seems unlikely at this time. Precipitation is expected to clear the area by Friday afternoon and early long range guidance is showing signs of a return to upper level ridging, including warming temperatures and clearing skies, for next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in continued near to record warmth today and tomorrow. High confidence in cooling conditions and precipitation for Monday and Tuesday but moderate confidence in snow levels and rain/snow transition locations. Moderate confidence in timing and impacts of the second round of precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday. No changes from base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 25KT will impact KELY and KEKO this afternoon into the early evening. Weak showers are also possible around KELY during this time, and are expected to quickly die off once the sun begins to set.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.