textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 5-15% this afternoon

* Unseasonably warm through Memorial Day

* Strong, gusty winds expected Tuesday

* Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Increasing mid-level moisture this afternoon in combination with weak instability will result in a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms. Any storms that may develop will have the potential to produce gusty outflow winds to 40 mph. Little to no precipitation is expected with storms today. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and to mid 80s this afternoon. Skies scatter out this evening and overnight with lows in the 40s.

Look for another round of convective activity on Sunday with isolated thunderstorms again possible over portions of northern and central Nevada. Highs will be a touch warmer in the afternoon with readings generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will be breezy but below advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A change in the weather is expected to occur early next week. On Monday, a weak upper trough will move through with isolated convection possible. Highs will remain above normal with readings in the 70s and 80s once again. Winds will be breezy especially across portions of northern Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. By Tuesday, an east Pacific storm system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and dive to the southeast towards Nevada. Look for breezy to windy conditions across the region, with west to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. Some locales may require a wind advisory. Highs will be seven to twelve degrees cooler than the previous day as a cold front marches across the forecast area. This will bring increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers. The activity will continue during the overnight with readings in the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday and Thursday, look for the system to persist over the area. This will allow for the valley rain and mountain snow showers to continue with temperatures below normal. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 20s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is low to moderate with the timing and placement of the isolated dry thunderstorms for the upcoming weekend. WPC PoP forecast was used in place of NBM. Confidence remains high with respect to the above normal temperatures this weekend. Low forecast confidence continues with valley rain and mountain snow showers Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF terminals today and tonight. Becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon with a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms at KWMC KEKO KBAM and KELY today. KENV and KTPH have around a 5% chance of thunderstorms. Little to no precipitation is expected in any storms that may develop. Outflow winds however may produce wind gusts to 40 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

After mostly clear skies early this morning, clouds begin to develop later in the morning, with mostly cloudy skies and a 5 to 10% chance of dry thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Any storms that may develop will have the potential to produce a few hundredths of an inch of rain to mountains, with likely only virga in valleys. Temperatures continue to trend warmer today, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.