textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the extreme northern portions of Elko and northeastern portions of White Pine county later this afternoon

* Skies will be mostly sunny at all other locations

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected today through the upcoming week with highs climbing back into the 90s for all locations

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear at this time with dry and quiet conditions. For today, expect mostly sunny conditions across much of northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Marginal instability and CAPE is noted around the Jarbidge wilderness and northeastern White Pine county this afternoon and so adjusted PoPs and Wx slightly to include isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, not too much going on with highs in the mid to upper 80s and winds less than 20 mph. Look for quiet and dry conditions tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday through Wednesday, heights are expected to rise during this time as the high pressure system over the desert southwest builds across the region. This will lead to warming afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. HeatRisk is only showing minor levels at this time though people who are heat sensitive may have minor issues. Winds will be fairly light with the typical afternoon breezes. Overnight lows will provide some relief as many areas will see readings in the 50s.

Thursday through the upcoming weekend, models are showing the upper ridge maintaining position around northern Mexico. This may bring limited mid-level moisture to portions of central and east- central Nevada by Thursday as southwest flow dominates. This could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to east-central Nevada that will need to be watched. Cooling back into the 80s is possible by the weekend as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made minor changes to the NBM for the afternoon period, adding isolated thunder to Jarbidge and NE White Pine later this afternoon. Confidence is high with warming temperatures and dry conditions through mid-week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across all terminals for the next 24 hour period. Winds will be light though gusts to 20KT are possible this afternoon, especially across the central terminals KELY and KTPH.

FIRE WEATHER

An isolated shower or thunderstorm (probability ten percent) expected along the far northern portions of zones 469 and 470, and also across the far northeast corner of 425. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies through mid-week with high temperatures warming once again into the mid to upper 90s. Another shot of isolated thunderstorms is possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon but probability remains at around ten to fifteen percent at this time, mainly over east-central Nevada. Winds will be occasionally breezy though no fire weather concerns are noted at this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.