textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperatures and quiet conditions will continue through next week.

* Rex block breaks down Tuesday, but high pressure will be quick to rebuild.

* Near record high temperatures are possible across portions of northern and central Nevada during the afternoon each day through next week.

* A weak upper trough will try to flatten the ridge for the weekend bringing a low chance for a few showers for far northern Nevada.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Relatively short lived REX blocking pattern featuring a cutoff low off the northern coast of Baja California, and a capping shortwave ridge due north off the coast of Eureka, California will begin to break down as a upper trough moving onshore over British Columbia will act as kicker sending the upper bound ridge west out to sea to be absorbed by a larger area of high pressure, and by picking up the cutoff low and bringing it into the main westerly flow over the central plains. This trough, will also push a cool front into northern Nevada, which will knock temperatures down a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. But its main influence, will be to enhance westerly winds across much of NV Tuesday, and again to northern NV Wednesday, with speeds up to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH possible. Unfortunately, this system will pass through dry, with only a increase in cloud cover, as any moisture looks stay far north across ID/MT. Wednesday evening the now consolidated ridge of high pressure out over the Pacific will shift east, building out over much of the SW US. This will lead to a new round of warming temperatures through the weekend with highs possibly reaching record territory, in the mid 60s to mid 70s by Saturday. Winds Thursday through Sunday, will be light to breezy out of the west to SW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible during the afternoons. As for our next chance of precipitation, models are still wanting to push a northern stream upper trough that try will flatten the ridge enough to brush the OR/ID/NV border with a few isolated mountain showers late Saturday and into Sunday. Although recent model consistency is helping to increase confidence, it still looks like any precipitation with this system would be very limited in coverage to the Santa Rosa, Jarbidge and Independence mountains of Humboldt, and Elko Counties, with those areas having the the highest probability, 10% to 20% of seeing a shower.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for a upper trough pushing a cool front through northern Nevada bringing stronger west winds and increasing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

There is high confidence in the potential for near record to record temperatures through next weekend.

There is low to moderate confidence for a weak system bringing isolated light rain showers, and stronger winds for far northern Nevada late Saturday into Sunday of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday evening with breezy west to southwest winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible Monday evening. Winds strengthen out of the west Tuesday to 15KT to 25KT with gusts up to 35KT possible in the afternoon as a upper trough passes to the north tightening the pressure gradient.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.