textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions in parts of Eastern Nevada Sunday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening

* Showers likely in East Central Nevada Monday

* Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The forecast area will be located between a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains and an Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. The Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will approach the west coast of the United States tonight. An upper-level area of low pressure will form in the base of this trough near the central coast of California Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in parts of Eastern Nevada Sunday due to south to southwest wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 10 percent.

The aforementioned cyclone aloft will slowly move southeastward across Southern Nevada Monday, resulting in the likelihood of showers in East Central Nevada Monday afternoon. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A ridge of high pressure will build westward across Northern Nevada Tuesday through Friday. A warming trend is anticipated Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, maximum temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada will be six to eight degrees above seasonal values.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding elevated fire weather conditions in parts of Eastern Nevada Sunday. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding the likelihood of showers in East Central Nevada Monday. Low forecast confidence in a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. South wind gusts near 25 knots are expected at KELY and KTPH this afternoon into this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in parts of Eastern Nevada Sunday due to south to southwest wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 10 percent. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Eastern Nevada Monday. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.