textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low probability of isolated dry thunder in central NV through this evening

* Well above normal temperatures this week

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Another round of isolated convective potential is present through this evening in White Pine and northern Nye counties. This convective setup is expected to favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with PW values around 0.5 to 0.7 inches. Convection is not expected to be widespread due to CAPE values maxing out around 300 J/kg, but combined with diurnal heating or terrain forcing may be enough for a strong storm or two. A high pressure system is expected to take up residence over the West beginning tomorrow which will calm winds and suppress any remaining precipitation chances for much of next week. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s through Thursday, or 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. This will combine with unusually warm overnight low temperatures to create a potential threat for those sensitive to heat. This is especially true for the West Wendover area where overnight temperatures look to remain above 65 degrees for the next week, including one night that will likely fail to drop below 70. Overnight temperatures outside this area are expected to be in the upper 50s during this period. The upper trough mentioned in yesterdays afternoon forecast has slowed somewhat and now looks to impact the West Friday and Saturday. This system is still expected to increase moisture and convective potential, as well as breaking the heat and decreasing temperatures between five and ten degrees.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in isolated mixed convection over northern Nye and White Pine today. High confidence in dry and very warm conditions this week. Low confidence in trough timing but moderate confidence in the impacts associated with it. Slight adjustments were made to PoPs today to better depict isolated dry thunder potential through this evening.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. Sunday evening breezes out of the WNW with gusts ranging 18-22KTs. are forecast for terminals KWMC, KEKO, KELY, & KBAM. KTPH wind direction will be WSW gusting to 18KTs. VCTS is anticipated for KELY and KPTH terminals Sunday afternoon until activity diminishes after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry to mixed thunderstorms are likely through this evening for zones 425/426/427. Conditions this week will be hot and dry with temperatures in the 90s across all zones. Potential wind driven enhanced conditions are also being watched in Elko county on Tuesday/Wednesday and in central Nevada on Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.