textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances diminish each afternoon, ending by Sunday

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon

* Above average temperatures continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Storm chances and coverage continues to ebb as upper level ridge drifts west reorienting the upper level flow and cutting off the mid level moisture flow over Nevada, and shoving it eastward over the four corners region. Saturday and Sunday will see the final two rounds of shower and thunderstorm chances primarily for far eastern parts of Elko and White Pine counties. Saturday afternoon will see a 25% chance for thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and localized flash flooding possible. Sunday afternoon will be the last day where storm chances are greater than 10%, as well as being the most conditional for storm development as both moisture and dynamics will be very meager. Monday through next Saturday the ridge continues is slow drift west eventually setting up over the southern Great Basin and slow strengthening as it does so. This will introduce a drying trend, as well as support the ongoing warming trend as temperatures gradually warm through the weekend reaching a peak next week. Winds will be out of the SW with breezy afternoon winds ranging at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Temperatures will range in the mid 90s to mid 100s, with heat advisories in effect for sections of Elko County for Saturday and Sunday, and may need to be expanded as heat impacts build through the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for thunderstorm chances ending by Sunday afternoon.

There High confidence in the potential for warming temperatures through the weekend. With a Heat Advisories in effect.

There is moderate confidence in the evolution of the upper air pattern after Wednesday as models continue to show high pressure remaining over the region.

AVIATION

Afternoon thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals, with KEKO/KENV/KELY/KTPH in the thunderstorm zone Saturday. As usual, thunderstorm impacts will include strong erratic winds and potential short lived visibility drops due to heavy rain. KWMC, KBAM and KTPH can also expect prevailing gusty winds up to 25KT through Saturday evening but remain dry. Otherwise, expect light winds less than 10KT and VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

A 15% to 25% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue Saturday, with a 10% chance for isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday. Main hazards continue to be gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, brief heavy rainfall, and ground lightning strikes. Elevated to near critical afternoon winds are forecast for NE Nevada for the next several days, however minimum RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds, at around 18-25%.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-038.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.