textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend today through Saturday

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon

* Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The second in a series of shortwaves impacting NV is currently making its way through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Besides cool afternoon highs, impacts from this particular wave are minimal. As the longwave trough responsible for these waves meanders east, high pressure will attempt to fill into the western CONUS prompting a gradual warming trend for afternoon highs back into the 70s by this weekend.

Another wave will traverse north to south to the east of the state Wednesday and Thursday though the system will be close enough to create some forcing over the eastern third of NV. Better confidence exists in scattered showers both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon as PW values in the 0.3-0.4 inch range are sufficient for showers but not so much storm activity. CAPE values (100-200 J/kg) and LI (0 to -2) on Thursday give evidence to said forcing and instability but the lack of moisture over the region at that time leads this forecaster to believe nothing more than showers and some convective build ups are possible. A 15% of isolated convection is probably a bit generous with this current model run.

Brief ridging will build into the Great Basin Friday and Saturday before a stronger LPC develops and begins to push southward down the West Coast by Saturday afternoon. This will open the region (particularly central and southern NV) up to stronger southwesterly flow as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the area. While precipitation with this next system looks to be more into Monday and early next week, wind concerns for central NV are certainly in place for the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in a warming trend into the weekend. Low confidence exists in thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday PM, mainly due to lack of moisture (see discussion above). Thunder was left in grids as prob (>15%) keeps storms as isolated both afternoons. Better confidence exists in strong gusty winds for central NV this weekend due to incoming weather system. No major changes to grids needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon and evening winds will be light at all terminals through Tuesday evening. Isolated showers and storms for KEKO and KELY are forecast Wednesday afternoon. Temporary restricted flight rules and gusty, erratic winds are possible in and around storms that do form.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.