textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* High pressure produces warm and dry weather through Wednesday.

* Record high temperatures are likely through Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures.

* Gusty winds Wednesday afternoon.

* Wind Advisory has been issued for northern Nevada Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge is still on track to keep dry weather with potential for record breaking high temperatures today. High temperatures today is expected to reach above 80s degrees across the region with an 80-100% chance that northern Nevada will see above 85 degrees. Tomorrow, the chances for high temperatures to reach above 80 degrees drop to 40% for northern Nevada (except for West Wendover expected to see 90 degrees). Some breezy winds expected over central Nevada with speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph.

Wednesday, low pressure to the northwest will weaken the upper ridge and push to a more zonal flow by the evening. Main concerns is high winds across the region with stronger winds in northern Nevada up to 20-25 mph, gusts 35-45 mph which prompted a Wind Advisory for northern Nevada from 10 AM to 11 PM. High winds may cause blowing dust throughout much of the region which may limit visibility. Recent model trends are now showing no chance for showers over northern Nevada, as the low pressure stays to the north. Some clouds may develop as there will be mid-level moisture in the atmosphere, but not enough to produce wetting rains. There is still a 15% chance for some dry thunderstorms over northeastern Elko County Wednesday afternoon.

Zonal flow is expected to stay in place over Nevada for the rest of the week and into next week, keeping the upper ridge from building back up. This will aid in starting a cooling temperature trend through the weekend, bringing temperatures down to slightly above normal through Saturday with highs in the 70s, and to near normal by Sunday. Temperatures will start back on a warming trend by Monday, but stay relatively in the 70s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for warm temperatures today with potential record breaking temps. High confidence for strong gusty winds tomorrow prompting a Wind Advisory for northern Nevada. Low confidence for dry thunderstorm activity over northeastern Nevada. Moderate confidence for cooling temperature trend Thursday through the weekend. Adjust winds grids in the NBM to better reflect recent model runs.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Breezy westerly winds over all terminals (except for KENV) with speeds up to 10-12 kts, gusts 20-25 kts. Tomorrow, westerly winds expected to be stronger across the region with speeds up to 15-20 kts, gusts 30-35 kts with strongest winds over the northern terminals. Mid-level moisture will aid in developing CIG levels between FL120-FL180. No chance for showers to impact the terminals but dry thunderstorms are not ruled out over northeastern Nevada. VFR conditions expected across all terminals, but strong gusty winds may cause blowing dust.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ030-031-033-034-036-038-039.