textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions across Northern Nevada today.

* Near-record heat this afternoon, with a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses for heat-sensitive groups.

* Unseasonably high temperatures will remain in place through next weekend.

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Strong upper level ridging remains the dominant feature across northern and central Nevada. An upper level trough will skirt across southern Canada and the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across northern and central Nevada, along with a couple to a few degrees of cooling. The upper ridge over the Great Basin region will be further suppressed southward on Monday, with an additional couple to few degrees of cooling across the region, with continued dry conditions. Temperatures begin to trend warmer on Tuesday. Increasing confidence in above normal temperatures later this week as high pressure builds across the entire Southwestern US. ECMWF extreme forecast index is highlighting the northeastern portion of Nevada as an area that could see well above normal temperatures Thursday through at least Saturday. The GFS model is in alignment with increasing high pressure for NV with 500mb heights reaching 600DAM across central NV on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to the NBM guidance. Moderate to high confidence in increased winds this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph across portions of northeastern Elko County. High confidence in Red Flag Warning conditions this afternoon and evening across fire weather zone 470. Increasing confidence in near-record to record high temperatures Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION

Smoke from regional wildfires will result in periods of hazy skies today. KELY may see the VIS drop to 6SM or lower this afternoon due to smoke from a nearby wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue under mostly clear/mostly sunny skies. Breezy conditions this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across Fire Weather Zone 470 today, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 2 PM PDT through 11 PM. Zone 470 can expect west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph to combine with RHs as low as 7 percent. Strongest winds are expected across the northern half of FWZ 470. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across most of the rest of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon with westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will trend cooler today and Monday, though remain above normal. High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the upper 90s, with mid 90s on Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon across mainly the northern portions of FWZs 438, 469 and 470 where low RHs and wind gusts to 30 mph are expected. Dry conditions continue through next week, with temperatures beginning to trend warmer Tuesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for NVZ470.