textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of Northern Nevada today.

* Unseasonably high temperatures will remain in place through the weekend. Heat related headline products may be needed by mid- week.

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure remains anchored across the Desert Southwest which will keep temperatures above normal this week. There is however shortwave energy passing eastward through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West at this time. Impacts from this passing system will be 3 to 5 degrees of cooling across northern Nevada compared to yesterday, with high temperatures in locations such as Winnemucca and Elko in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Central Nevada will see a more subtle response given closer proximity to the Southwest ridge; locations such as Ely and Tonopah can expect around 1 to 3 degrees of cooling with afternoon highs today in the mid 90s. The passing trough will also produce breezy northerly winds of 5 to 15 mph gusting 15 to 25 mph in valleys of Humboldt and Elko Counties early this morning, with gusts to 30 mph over the higher terrain. Winds across central Nevada early this morning will be lighter, generally in the 5 to 10 mph range. Late this morning and afternoon with the trough to our north exiting into Wyoming winds will weaken across northern Nevada. Most valley locations across both northern and central Nevada can expect winds this afternoon generally in the 7 to 12 mph range with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.

High pressure strengthens Tuesday across the Desert Southwest and along the west coast, kicking off a warming trend across northern and central Nevada. High temperatures Tuesday will generally be in the mid 90s across the region, with upper 90s to low 100s Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to gradually trend warmer into Thursday and Friday with most valley locations at or below 5500 feet in elevation reaching 100 degrees each afternoon.

Wednesday afternoon under the building high pressure mid-level moisture will being to push up into east-central NV (Northeastern Nye and Southern White Pine Counties). At this time moisture and instability look to be too limited for thunderstorm development, however afternoon and early evening cumulus cloud build-ups at around 15k feet are becoming more likely. Cumulus build-ups will likely trend farther north each afternoon, extending into Elko County by the weekend. Any storm activity that may develop later this week should develop across east-central NV first, and expand northward as mid-level moisture and instability gradually increase from the south. Current thunderstorm chances for east- central NV are around 5% both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, increasing to around 10% Friday and up to 15% on Saturday. The probability of thunderstorms is lower the farther west and north of east-central NV that we look each afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in cooler conditions today, with a warming trend Tuesday into the latter part of the work week; with highs reaching upper 90s and low 100s Thursday through at least Saturday. High confidence in dry conditions through mid-week. Low confidence in thunderstorm development Wednesday into the weekend. No chance to the NBM forecast.

AVIATION

Smoke from regional wildfires will result in periods of hazy skies. KELY may see the VIS drop to 6SM or lower due to smoke from a nearby wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue under mostly clear/mostly sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds this morning, strongest at KWMC with gusts of 15 to 25 knots through around 20Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions across northern Nevada today. This morning across fire weather zones 437, 438, 424, 469 and 470, northerly winds will increase into the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Slightly higher winds are likely across the higher terrain. Relative humidities in these areas this morning are expected to be in the 15 to 30 percent range. Winds will weaken after noon, at around the time humidities drop below 15 percent. This afternoon winds across all fire weather zones are expected to be in the 7 to 12 mph range with gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Temperatures trend a couple to a few degrees cooler today, with a warming trend beginning Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected across all zones today and tomorrow. Later this week as mid-level moisture builds up into east-central Nevada the chances for thunderstorms will increase, from around 5 percent Wednesday up to around 15 percent by Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.