textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 5-15% across central NV this afternoon

* Unseasonably warm Saturday through Memorial Day

* Strong, gusty winds expected Tuesday

* Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A light northwest flow aloft continues across the region today with winds of 5 to 10 mph gusting 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. Main change for today will be across central NV, generally south of the Highway 50 corridor where mid-level moisture and instability will increase enough for weak cell development. There is a 5 to 15% chance of thunderstorms between noon and 5PM PDT over and near mountains of northern Nye, southern Lander and Southern Eureka counties. Any precipitation would be less than five hundredths of an inch in mountains and probably virga over any valley locations. Increasing clouds across the CWA Saturday afternoon with a 5 to 10% chance of thunderstorms. NBM has isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon limited to NW Humboldt and along the southern Lander, southern Eureka and far northern Nye counties. Expecting increased areal coverage of low end thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon in upcoming model runs as some model ensembles have shown 5-15% chances of thunderstorms for multiple runs. Similar to this afternoon, any storms that may develop on Saturday would be expected to produce less than five hundredths of an inch of rain. Sunday afternoon weak instability is focused across Elko county, with a 10 to 20% chance of afternoon convection mainly over the mountains of northern Elko county and the Ruby mountains. Warmer this weekend with highs ranging from upper 70s to mid 80s.

A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet Tuesday afternoon, before dropping to about 7,000 feet Tuesday night. The majority of this precipitation will fall Wednesday.

Strong, gusty southwest to west winds are anticipated, mainly in Central Nevada, from 10 AM PDT Tuesday morning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday evening. A Wind Advisory may be required.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in thunderstorm activity across portions of central NV this afternoon. High confidence in temperatures tending warmer through the weekend. High confidence continues with respect to gusty winds Monday and Tuesday. Low forecast confidence in valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Slight adjustments to the NBM POPs for this afternoon to get thunderstorms mentioned in the forecast across central NV, which now matches up with the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook. Also nudged cloud cover up slightly across central NV this afternoon.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF terminals today and tonight. Mid-level clouds will increase across portions of central NV this afternoon with a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms. Not expecting any thunderstorms to develop at or in the vicinity of KTPH or KELY however.

FIRE WEATHER

Thunderstorm chances for portions of Central Nevada both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon will be in the 5 to 15% range. Sunday afternoon the best chances for thunderstorms will be across Elko county, where chances are currently in the 10 to 20% range. Any thunderstorms that may develop today through Sunday are expected to be dry. Strong, gusty southwest to west winds anticipated Tuesday associated with the passage of a cold front. Valley rain and high elevation snowfall is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.