textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms coverage expected near the Utah border today

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s

* Increasing monsoonal moisture will increase potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in White Pine county and are expected to spread into southeastern Elko county before dissipating around sundown. Temperatures increase tomorrow to kick off what will likely be the warmest few days so far this year, with highs in the upper 90s into triple digits. Overnight lows will provide some relief, with temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s, but heat advisories have been issued across much of the forecast area this weekend. Several record highs are also at risk, with Elko, Eureka and Ely all forecast to approach or tie their current record on Saturday. The heat is also expected to increase fire weather concerns, especially when combined with elevated winds around 30 mph on Saturday. The extreme heat is generally expected to break for Monday but temperatures will continue to be above average, with highs in the mid to upper 90s through the end of the forecast period. Also starting Monday, an upper level high pressure center will facilitate a monsoonal moisture push that is expected to form scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Showers are expected to continue as long as the monsoon flow continues. At this time monsoonal flow is anticipated to persist through the end of the forecast, but the high will need to be watched to see when it breaks down.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in extreme heat Friday through Sunday. High confidence in continued above average temperatures Monday and beyond. Moderate confidence on monsoon moisture and storm potential but low confidence in spatial and temporal coverage of said storms. Winds were increased by about 5 mph for Saturday to better reflect potential fire weather conditions. PoPs were also increased for this afternoon to better reflect the future of ongoing convection.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near KENV but direct terminal impact is not expected. Short lived strong winds up to 40KT may impact the terminal due to nearby thunderstorm passage.

AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issues.

FIRE WEATHER

Extreme heat is expected through Monday with single digit RH values. Confidence is increasing that critical thresholds will be reached in central Nevada on Saturday as winds increase to gust 30-35 mph. Monsoonal moisture flow is indicated to begin on Monday, which will need to be monitored for initial dry thunderstorm potential, as well as general thunder and potential wetting rain impacts.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035-038-039.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-040-041.