textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Today

* Warming trend Monday through Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the southern portions of CONUS. Southerly flow will push residual monsoon moisture towards northeastern Nevada with a few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon concentrated in eastern Elko County. Winds will be light up to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, however strong gusty erratic winds from thunderstorms up to 40-50 mph possible. Elevated fire weather conditions across Humboldt County this afternoon due to elevated winds along with low relative humidity at 10-15%. Throughout the week, the upper ridge will stretch into a more longwave trajectory centered over the southern states. This will cause weather conditions to be a bit more stable resulting in calmer weather conditions with some clouds forming as PWAT values remains above 0.6, however thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to the ample mid level moisture. Chances are very low, but an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible over eastern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. The upper ridge pattern will also bring a warming temperature trend throughout the week with probabilities greater than 90% that every city and town will be above 90s degrees by Thursday.

By late week and into Friday, models showing increasing confidence the upper level ridge will strengthen and become more defined with the center moving back over the four corners area. This pattern will result in monsoon level moisture to return over Nevada with increasing chances for isolated/scattered thunderstorms mainly over eastern Nevada then spreading across all of Nevada over the weekend. After the weekend, the upper ridge system will shift to the southeast towards New Mexico and Texas but keep the monsoon southerly flow over Nevada with continued chances for isolated/scattered thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for a few strong thunderstorms over northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Low confidence for elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County from wind/RH. High confidence for most stable weather conditions with warming temperatures trends reaching above 90s degrees by the end of the week. Moderate confidence to returning monsoon thunderstorm chances by Friday and over the weekend. Moderate confidence for continued chances for monsoon thunderstorms to last into next week. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Ample mid level moisture will result in some cloud development around FL100. Chance for thunderstorms this afternoon over northeastern Nevada with the chance of VCSH conditions reaching near KEKO and KENV. Winds will be light around 10-12 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts, however outflow from thunderstorms may bring gusty erratic winds up to 40-50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions over zone 437 due to winds reaching up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph with min RH values at 10-15%. Winds across all other zones will be the same with a little bit stronger gusts up to 20-30 mph, however min RH values will be near or above 20%. Possible strong thunderstorms this afternoon across zones 469 and 470 and northern portions of 425. Weather conditions expected to be more stable throughout the week with increasing temperatures above 90 degrees by Thursday. Chances for monsoon thunderstorms return on Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.