textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* High Wind Warning for Central Nevada today

* Wind Advisory for Northeastern Nevada today

* Periods of precipitation this evening through Wednesday evening

* Much cooler Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Pacific low pressure center is currently making its way onshore and its impacts are already being felt locally. Strong winds are ongoing across the forecast area as a result of the intense pressure gradient ahead of the low. Latest satellite imagery is showing several plumes of blowing dust already active in central Nevada and dust activity is expected to increase and persist until winds decrease after sundown. Showers are ongoing in western Nevada and are expected to enter the forecast area by this evening, following a surface cold front associated with the low. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible during the afternoon and evening both today and tomorrow. Snow levels are expected to drop below 5000 feet tonight and up to half an inch of low elevation snow is possible, however it will be short lived due to warm ground temperatures and daytime temperatures above freezing tomorrow. Mountain tops could see 8-12 inches of new snowfall, especially in the Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge Wilderness area. Highs tomorrow will be in the 40s and low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s. Precipitation potential is expected to linger through tomorrow evening before clearing entirely overnight. A zonal flow pattern is expected to end the week, allowing daytime temperatures to return to the 60s for Friday and Saturday. Model spread is still highly variable after Friday, however the signal for more showers this weekend into next week persists and confidence is slowly increasing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in strong winds and wet and cooler weather through tomorrow. High confidence in seasonal temperatures to end the week. Low confidence in showers this weekend. Forecast winds were increased through this evening due to persistent NBM low bias.

AVIATION

Very strong winds will continue to affect all sites through the next 24 hours, with gusts 30-40KT expected. Blowing dust is also possible at times and has the potential to reduce visibility to as low as 1SM. Showers are also expected to begin impacting KWMC around 23Z before spreading to KBAM and KEKO a few hours later. Ceilings are likely to drop below VFR thresholds with showers, and are expected to only be slightly above VFR thresholds where showers arent occurring. Visibility may also drop below VFR limits during showers.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-033-034-036-038-039.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ035-037-040-041.