textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Lingering storm chances in eastern Nevada through Thursday
* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly
* Convective activity is expected to ramp up again later on this week and into the weekend
DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Monday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The latest round of daytime thunderstorms continues over far eastern and northeastern Nevada today. Given the previous few days, any thunderstorms have a high probability of new fire ignitions from lightning strikes. This pattern will continue through Thursday as the high pressure system shifts west. Starting Friday, a trough in the northwest will combine with the high over Arizona and New Mexico to bring southwest flow and Pacific moisture into the forecast area. The strength of this moisture is still being determined but the current forecast would bring shower and thunderstorm chances to effectively the entire forecast area between Friday and Saturday. Moisture is currently anticipated to linger into early next week, with weaker and more sparse storms Sunday and Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in storm chances and associated impacts through Thursday. High confidence in increasing moisture and atmospheric instability for Friday and Saturday but low confidence in moisture strength and extent of impacts. No changes to NBM output.
AVIATION
Mostly calm day today, with some afternoon gusty winds at KWMC/KBAM/KELY. A stray thunderstorm or two is also possible at KELY and KENV this afternoon. Otherwise, expect light winds under 10KT and VFR conditions.
FIRE WEATHER
Dry thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday afternoon for FWZ 438/469/470/425. Storms will initiate in early afternoon and diminish around sunset tonight. The nature of storm activity will be more dry than wet with impacts being dangerous lightning, and erratic gusty winds that will enhance aggressive fire behavior. General motion of storms will be from southwest to northeast at around 20 mph. A very similar setup is forecast for Wednesday afternoon over the same locations.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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