textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Well above normal temperatures this week

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Cooler temperatures with a possible low chance for thunderstorms for the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridging building in from the west coast will keep pattern quiet with warm temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s through Friday, before an upper trough digging in from the Pacific NW moves in next weekend bringing a chance of thunderstorms for northern NV. Monday through Friday upper level ridging will build back shifting winds back to the WNW. The ridge axis looks to remain off shore, keeping the main westerly flow close enough to enhance winds Tuesday and Wednesday across Humboldt and Elko Counties, as wind speed rise from 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH Monday, to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Another factor to watch will be temperatures as highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s will be common across the area. Overnight lows look to range in the upper 50s to low 70s, which will raise heat risk concerns across the I-80 corridor. Thursday and Friday the ridge weakens enough to be pushed east across NV into the southern plains as a upper trough approaches from the Pacific. Temperatures Thursday and Friday look to stay in the upper 80s to upper 90s, but may be a degree or two cooler than Wednesday. As this trough looks to transit Nevada Saturday and Sunday, winds shift to the SW Friday evening the shift to the NW Sunday at 10 MPH to 20 MPH. The main change the trough will bring will be cooler temperatures for Nevada. As for other potential impacts, confidence is low with as the most recent runs however show that there may be a 20% to 30% chance for an isolated mix of wet or dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada. After Sunday model agreement dissipates as high uncertainty in the upper pattern leads to a low confidence outlook as either a general troughing pattern or a building summertime subtropical ridge looks to build over the western US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures through Friday.

There moderate confidence in the potential for heat issues for northeastern Nevada for Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is moderate confidence in the passage of an upper trough across northern Nevada Saturday and Sunday bringing cooler temperatures.

There is low confidence in the trough bringing a low 20% to 30% chance for isolated wet/dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada for the weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Tuesday. Winds shift to WNW at 10KT to 20KT with occasional gusts up to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as an upper ridge builds back in over the Great Basin through Friday. Warming temperatures into the upper 80s to upper 90s, breezy NW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH, and low daytime RH values will be common through Friday afternoon. By Saturday and Sunday, an upper level storm system will shift winds briefly to the SW Saturday before a cool front shifts winds back to the NW Sunday. This from will bring in cooler air, but introduce a low 20% to 30 chance for thunderstorms, which could be a mix of wet and dry storms for the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.