textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Cooling trend Tuesday and Wednesday

* Periods of rain late this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will pass northeastward across the Silver State this afternoon into this evening, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be seven to nine degrees below normal for this time of year.

An upper level area of low pressure will make landfall along the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday. This cyclone aloft will meander around the coast of the Pacific Northwest Friday into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical cyclone will be located in the Eastern Pacific, just west of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. There are indications that these two storm systems may interact with each other, drawing atmospheric moisture northward. At this time, low forecast confidence exists in this scenario. Timing, coverage, and extent of any precipitation late this weekend into early next week will need to be further refined in the upcoming few days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling trend Tuesday and Wednesday. Low forecast confidence in periods of rain this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, and KBAM this afternoon into this evening. Direct thunderstorm impact cannot be ruled out.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern Humboldt County Tuesday due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 12 percent.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.