textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through tomorrow

* Quieter weather and below normal temperatures in store for the weekend

* Warming to near normal temperatures by mid week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Showers and thunderstorms continue today as an upper level trough swings north through the region. The trough exit tomorrow will result in a much more stable atmosphere, but weak storm potential does persist in far eastern Nevada. Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be dry, with a slow warming trend due to developing ridging over the West. This will result in high temperatures just below normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s. While model agreement has increased significantly for the first half of the week, the forecast for late week remains variable, with disagreement focusing on the timing of a West Coast trough impact. The slower solution would maintain warm and dry conditions through next weekend while the faster solution would bring cooler temperatures and storm potential as early as Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in weakening storms today and tomorrow. Moderate confidence in dry weather and near normal temperatures through Wednesday. Low confidence past Wednesday. No changes from the NBM.

AVIATION

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible at all sites except KTPH today. As usual, impacts will be erratic winds 40KT to 50KT and brief decreased visibility with heavy rainfall. KELY and KTPH are also expecting gusty winds around 25KT this afternoon, dying down after sunset. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds 10KT or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Thunderstorms continue today but are expected to remain wet enough to rule out new lightning starts. Flooding or debris flows remain a minor threat with the strongest rain cores. A few storms are possible in eastern Nevada tomorrow before a warming and drying trend takes over through early next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.