textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A twenty to thirty percent probability for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of far northern and east- central Nevada

* Breezy conditions this afternoon and early evening * At or just below average temperatures will continue through the next several days. Expect a rather chilly morning on Tuesday with readings in the 30s

* Dry conditions are expected Monday through at least Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny at this time with some low to mid clouds streaming across portions of northern and east-central Nevada. Winds have developed across central Nevada with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds will eventually diminish later this evening.

For the rest of today and tonight, upper level low pressure is currently spinning across southwestern Oregon at this time with a shortwave rounding the base of this trough. Upper level ridging is currently over the mid-western United States. The upper trough will quickly move northeastward tonight and Monday, bringing a more westerly flow to the forecast area. The isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the northern and central sections will continue into the early evening hours before dissipating. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

For Monday, the aforementioned upper trough will scoot off to the northeast. Meanwhile, heights across northern and central Nevada will slowly rise during the day. Winds are not expected to be as strong with some occasional breeziness to 20 mph but that is about it. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Look for a rather chilly overnight period with mainly clear skies. Given that we are still in the growing season, there is a possibility of reaching temperatures below 36 degrees. Some of the colder locales like Wildhorse is showing thirty-five to forty-five percent probability of seeing low temperatures below 36 degrees for the Monday night to Tuesday morning time. A frost advisory may be needed for portions of northern, south- central Elko counties, along with southern Lander/Eureka, and White Pine counties for Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the 30s.

Models are now showing a continuation of the rising heights for the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. This will mean afternoon high temperatures are expected to warm to above normal levels with readings in the low to upper 80s. Winds are expected to be rather light winds, though some occasional afternoon breeziness to 20 mph are possible. At this time, no precipitation is expected. Dry conditions will continue into the overnight each day with lows in the 40s.

By Saturday, model simulations are depicting a rather sharp shortwave trough diving to the south and across the Pacific Northwest states. Did not make any changes to the current blended forecast at this time for the upcoming weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the current NBM forecast. There is high confidence cooler than normal temperatures continuing through roughly Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Confidence is also moderate regarding Tuesday's morning low temperatures and the possibility of headline cold products being required.

There is low confidence in the long range forecast as model solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern after Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today and tonight. West to SW winds with peak gusts in the 25-35kt range this afternoon, strongest at KELY. Increasing clouds late this morning and afternoon with a 30% chance of thunderstorms at KELY and KENV. Winds and thunderstorm chances diminish by late this evening. Dry and storm-free on Monday with much lighter winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Clouds will continue to increase over northern and east-central Nevada this afternoon. There is a twenty to thirty percent probability for showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue this afternoon and early evening with gusts to around 35 mph across fire zone 425 today, though minimum relative humidity values in this zone will be well above critical levels. For tomorrow through mid-week, lighter winds are expected. The drying trend continues such that the mid-week portions looks more storm-free with afternoon high temperatures climbing to above normal levels.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.