textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated (10-15% chance) showers across the eastern half of White Pine County.

* Record to near record warmth today through Friday.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather this Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Weak instability of up to 250 J/kg of CAPE across eastern White Pine County will continue isolated chances for showers. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, though chances remain below 10%. Hi-res guidance seems to be too quick in exiting moisture from the weak surface low that is moving into central Utah. Remnant moisture on the water vapor loop and developing cumulus on visible satellite suggest isolated showers will continue along and east of US 93 through this afternoon. Increased PoPs in these areas for mentionable showers.

Otherwise, upper-level ridging builds into the Great Basin through the rest of the workweek, leading to continued warmth with record to near record high temperatures across the climate sites through Friday. Ely sees the greatest likelihood for record highs today and Thursday at around a 10 percent chance with current forecast highs within a couple degrees of the record.

Friday into the weekend, another upper low will cutoff and dig southward off the California Coast, with a secondary and stronger trough quickly moving into the Pacific Northwest on its heels. This will lead to stronger southwesterly flow into Saturday with breezy to locally windy conditions with max 24-hr gusts of 30 to 40 mph across northern and central Nevada with a 35% chance for wind gusts over 40 mph in Elko and a 75% chance in Ely.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Increase PoPs in eastern White Pine County to account for localized convective activity this afternoon.

High confidence in well-above normal temperatures through Friday with moderate confidence in a cooler, wetter pattern into the weekend and early next week. Long range ensemble clusters in disagreement on how the two aforementioned troughs interact with the wetter cluster scenarios that combine the troughs across the Great Basin bringing greater chances for measurable precipitation by late Sunday into Monday. Low chances for mountain snowfall if the deeper trough outcome pans out with snow levels dropping below 10k ft with increased moisture.

AVIATION

VFR across all terminals through the next 24 hours. Greatest chances for isolated showers around 15% at KELY through the early evening. Light and variable wind below 10 kt through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

A mix of isolated wet and dry thunderstorms over far eastern portions of zone 425 through this afternoon at 15% or less. Dry conditions through the remainder of the workweek with light winds generally below 15 mph through Thursday. Winds begin to increase Friday and especially into Saturday ahead of the next incoming weather system.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.