textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers and thunderstorms impact central and eastern Nevada today and tomorrow

* Fair weather returns Wednesday though breezes will be present at the end of the week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Pacific cut off low will continue to move inland and into SoCal this morning, and move into southern and central Nevada late this afternoon. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will advect enough atmospheric moisture northward into Central Nevada from the south-southwest to produce rain showers and thunderstorms beginning around midday today. The upper low will continue to move northeastward thru the intermountain west with showers and thunderstorms moving into eastern Nevada, including White Pine and Elko Counties, this evening and Tuesday morning respectively. Activity looks to exit to the north- northeast Tuesday night. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Accumulating rainfall will be possible with the greatest accumulations expected in and near White Pine County. Accumulations between 0.10 and 0.25 inches are forecast with the higher end accumulation situated over the high terrain and particularly the Snake Range and Schell Creeks.

Fair weather returns Wednesday under weak upper level flow. By Thursday afternoon, daytime high temperatures will be five to ten degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Breezes are also expected to begin increasing Thursday in response to a deepening Pacific trof offshore of the PacNW. Trof progresses east thru the PacNW Friday with the associated surface frontal boundary skirting northern Nevada. This will cause west-southwesterly winds to peak Friday afternoon in and near Humboldt County with gusts around 35 to 40 mph. Winds remain relatively breezy thru the weekend as the upper wave pattern remains progressive.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in shower and thunderstorm activity today thru Tuesday with moderate confidence in regard to rainfall accumulations. High confidence in the forecast from mid week thru the end of the week. Again opted for a blend of various model guidance to produce a more accurate PoP and weather forecast than suggested by NBM thru the period.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will persist thru this morning at all terminals. -SHRA and TS will move into central Nevada from the south-southwest mid day today, with affects beginning at KTPH around 21Z this afternoon. Activity spreads north and east this afternoon and thru Tuesday night with KELY, KENV, and KEKO also expected to observe -SHRA, VCSH, TS, and/or VCTS. Currently anticipating impacts to begin at KELY this evening and KENV and KEKO Tuesday morning. VFR will remain the primary flight category during this time though periods of MVFR will be possible under a heavier shower or thunderstorm due to reduction in VIS and lowered CIGs. Winds will be generally light though gusty and erratic winds should be expected in conjunction with any TS and gusts up to 45KT will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Main concern within the next few days will be rain showers and thunderstorms that will move into central Nevada from the south- southwest around mid day today as an upper level low passes thru the region. Activity spreads into eastern Nevada tonight and Tuesday before exiting to the north- northeast Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will affect zones 426, 427, 425, 469, and 470, as well as the southern and eastern fringes of zones 424 and 438. Wetting rains will be possible though the best opportunity will be within zone 425. Weather becomes fair Wednesday though west- southwesterly winds will become breezy at the end of the week. Winds peak Friday within zone 437 in response to a Pacific trof progressing thru the PacNW from the west. Gusts around 35 to 40 mph can be expected, though minimum afternoon RH is expected to remain greater than 15%, mitigating critical fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.