textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record heat today with highs in the mid to upper 90s

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday over mainly Elko and White Pine counties

* Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Sunday due to gusty winds and low humidity, strongest winds on Saturday

* Much cooler this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to build across the Great Basin region today, with afternoon high temperatures reaching mid to upper 90s. Mostly sunny this afternoon for most of the CWA, however far northern Elko County should see partly to mostly cloudy skies by the late afternoon hours with a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. A couple degrees cooler on Wednesday with broad trough energy approaching from the west. Just enough instability and mid-level moisture across mainly the eastern half of the CWA Wednesday afternoon and early evening to produce cumulus build-ups, with a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms across Elko and White Pine counties. An upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska mid-week is expected to reach western WA by Friday evening before centering over the PacNW Saturday afternoon. The approaching system will result in a cooling trend this week, with highs Sunday afternoon only in the 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows this weekend dipping into the 30s to low 40s. Additionally, the approaching low will produce gusty afternoon and evening winds across the region Thursday through Sunday. Strongest winds are expected on Saturday which may reach wind advisory levels with sustained west to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 35 to 50 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well above normal temperatures this afternoon. Low confidence in thunderstorm chances this afternoon for NE Elko County. High confidence in temperatures trending cooler Wednesday through Sunday. Low to moderate confidence in isolated thunderstorms across portions of Elko and White Pine Counties Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds later this week. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions at all terminal today and tonight. Well above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies. Wind gusts this afternoon and early evening are expected to reach 20 to 25 knots at all TAF terminals except KENV where lighter winds are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Hot this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is a 5-10 percent chance of dry thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening over mainly northern portions of zones 469 and 470 where skies will become mostly cloudy. Otherwise, mostly sunny today with west to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting up to 25 mph in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Best chances (10-15%) for thunderstorms this week will be Wednesday afternoon across mainly zones 469 470 and 425, likely leaning dry. Elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon and evening Thursday through Sunday due to gusty winds and low humidities. Strongest winds are expected on Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.