textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Record warmth across all of Central Nevada this afternoon

* Cooling trend Monday through Friday

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow Monday evening through Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will extend northward across Central Nevada this afternoon. Record warmth is expected in Ely, Eureka, and Tonopah this afternoon. Near record warmth is anticipated in Elko this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will move southward through Southern Idaho Monday. Precipitation ahead of this trough of low pressure should reach Northern Nevada Monday evening. Periods of valley rain and mountain snow are likely Monday night through Tuesday night. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet Monday evening, before dropping to about 7,000 feet Tuesday night. The majority of this precipitation will fall Tuesday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth of an inch of rain or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Monday evening through Tuesday night:

Austin - 75% Spring Creek - 70% Winnemucca - 69% Elko - 65% Wells - 63% Carlin - 63% Ely - 57% Eureka - 56% Battle Mountain - 50% West Wendover - 42%

There may be a brief break in precipitation chances Wednesday, before the next storm system Wednesday night through Thursday night. Snow levels will start at around 7,000 feet Wednesday night, before falling to the valley floor Thursday night. The majority of precipitation associated with this storm system will remain north of the Highway 50 corridor. A cooling trend is expected Monday through Friday. By Friday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be seven to nine degrees below normal for this time of year.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding record warmth across all of Central Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling trend Monday through Friday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding periods of valley rain and mountain snow Monday evening through Tuesday night. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Southwest to west wind gusts near 20 knots are expected at KWMC, KELY, and KBAM this afternoon. Southwest to west wind gusts near 25 knots are anticipated at KEKO this afternoon.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.