textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Above average temperatures through mid week

* Potential exists for afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday

* Even warmer temperatures and increasing HeatRisk Friday and Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the Independence Day holiday. Atmospheric moisture looks to increase tomorrow, driven by low level southerly winds. When combined with daytime heating driven instability, the result is isolated showers and thunderstorms in Humboldt county. There is a very low chance for an isolated cell or two across the rest of the forecast area, but instability is much less favorable. Afternoon convective potential continues for Monday and Tuesday, even as building high pressure over the four corners area strengthens ridging over Nevada and keeps temperatures unseasonably warm, with high temperatures in the 90s. Convective potential disappears by Wednesday as the high and ridge strengthen further, allowing temperatures to warm through the end of the week. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s, with a few areas even reaching triple digits by Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s. There is already a moderate level of HeatRisk for Friday and this period will need to be monitored for excessive heat impacts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in above normal temperatures through the forecast period, with moderate confidence in an additional warmup late week. Low confidence in showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Moderate confidence in dry weather Wednesday and beyond. PoP and thunder probabilities were increased to better show tomorrows dry thunder potential.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected at all sites except KTPH, where afternoon gusty winds up to 20KT are forecast for today.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry afternoon thunderstorms are the main fire weather threat for the next three days, with risk areas in zone 437 tomorrow, 425/437/470 Monday, and northern 469/470 on Tuesday. Temperatures continue to be above average. Afternoon breezes in central Nevada may bring elevated fire weather conditions early this week, with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Critical wind thresholds are not expected to be met during this forecast.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.