textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperatures and quiet conditions will continue through next week.

* Rex block breaks down Tuesday, but high pressure will be quick to rebuild.

* Near record high temperatures are possible across portions of northern and central Nevada during the afternoon each day through next week.

* A weak upper trough will try to flatten the ridge for the weekend bringing a low chance for a few showers for far northern Nevada

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

REX blocking pattern featuring a cutoff low off the northern coast of Baja California, and a capping shortwave ridge due north off the coast of Eureka, California will keep the pattern dry, and unseasonably warm through Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will be warming back into the upper 50s to upper 60s by Monday, which will be close to a few records across central Nevada. Tuesday a weak northern stream trough passing through the Canadian Rockies of Alberta, will dig far enough south over the Pacific NW to break the REX block, by forcing the Ridge over northern Nevada west out to sea to be absorbed by a larger area of high pressure, and by picking up the cutoff low and bringing it into the main westerly flow over the central plains. This trough, will also push a cool front into northern Nevada, which will knock temperatures down a few degrees, and act to enhance westerly winds to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH possible, as an upper level jet stream tries to shift south into Nevada. The front will lift back north Wednesday afternoon allowing the winds across the far north to remain elevated through the evening. Unfortunately, this system will pass through dry, as any moisture looks stay far north. Wednesday evening the now consolidated ridge of high pressure will build back stronger, over much of the SW US. This will lead to a new round of warming temperatures through the following weekend with temperatures possible reaching back into record territory with highs in the low 60s to low 70s by Friday of next week. With the exception of Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, Winds will be light to breezy out of the west to SW at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible during the afternoons. As for our next chance of precipitation, models are still wanting to push an upper trough that will flatten the ridge enough to clip northern Nevada with a few isolated showers late Saturday and into Sunday. Any precipitation with this system would be limited in coverage to the Jarbidge and Independence mountains of Elko County, with only a low 10% to 20% chance at seeing a shower.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a quiet pattern continuing through Monday of next week.

There is moderate confidence for a upper trough pushing a cool front through northern Nevada bringing stronger west winds and increasing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

There is high confidence in the potential for near record to record temperatures through next weekend.

There is low confidence for a weak system bringing isolated light rain showers for northern Nevada late Saturday into Sunday of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast through Monday evening with light to breezy west to southwest winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible.

KENV remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.