textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather temperatures above normal levels in the 90s

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system this weekend increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few clouds can be seen overhead moving south. Overall, skies are mostly clear at this time. The flow is out of the northwest due to a high pressure system off in the eastern Pacific. The center of this high pressure system is forecast to move to the east during the next day or two, resulting in afternoon high temperatures rising to the mid to upper 90s. Model guidance continues to retreat slightly on the HeatRisk with respect to areal coverage and intensity. Will continue the trend from previous shifts by messaging the above normal temperatures. While highs will be in the mid to upper 90s today and Wednesday, overnight lows will generally be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

By Thursday, the upper ridge will be centered over the four- corners region. A southerly flow will develop and bring mid-level moisture north. Have introduced isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada as a result. Precipitable water values will be around a half-inch or so with about 100-150J/kg of CAPE and limited instability. Not expecting much precipitation given how high the bases will be. Winds are expected to remain light during the day, but any storm in central Nevada could produce gusts to 45 mph. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with some afternoon breezes. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

On Friday, a weak upper trough will enter the picture across northern California. The resulting southwest flow will help to push moisture northward. Isolated dry thunderstorms in the north are expected to quickly transition to more wet storms in the latter portions of the afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could also produce strong outflow wind gusts to 45 mph. Highs Friday will again be in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

The weak east Pacific trough on Saturday will slowly give way to a more east to west flow by early next week. There is the potential for an isolated mix of wet and dry storms over northern and central Nevada on Saturday as the rest of the moisture gets scoured out. Coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms will be quite limited on Sunday with not much expected Monday and Tuesday. Highs are expected to cool Saturday with readings in the 80s and lows in the 40s. Look for high temperatures to rebound back into the 90s by Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 40s and 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Modifications to the NBM forecast were needed Thursday and Friday with respect to the coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms. Winds on Friday were also bumped slightly higher across central Nevada as well. High confidence in temperatures remaining above normal for the week. Confidence is low on placement and coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms Thursday. Confidence is low with regards to critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour period. Afternoon northwest breezes with gusts 20 to 25KT will develop after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions will remain elevated today and Wednesday across portions of northern Nevada as wind gusts 25 to 30 mph will develop in zones 469 and 470. There could be a few isolated gusts exceeding 30 mph but coverage and time requirements are not expected to be reached. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digits to low teens through Thursday. Models are showing mid-level moisture trying to push north around the eastern periphery of the four-corners high on Thursday, leading to the develop of isolated dry thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Moisture is expected to move northward Friday with dry thunderstorms in the northern zones transitioning to wet and dry storms during the afternoon. Winds will become breezy to locally windy in east- central Nevada Friday, especially across zones 425, 426, and 427. This will lead to at least elevated wind/low relative humidity conditions in these zones though if drier air moves in quicker, this could lead to critical conditions and will need to be watched. Showers will exit the area late Saturday with cooling conditions into the 80s with minimum humidity values increasing.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.