textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Southern White Pine and Eastern Nye Counties today

* Another round of strong thunderstorms possible in northeastern Nevada tomorrow

* Warming trend today through next week

* Potential exists for monsoon storms Monday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening across eastern Nevada as upper shortwave troughs continue to bring some convection over the area. Convection is expected to trend more as dry thunderstorms due to limited atmospheric moisture ranging between 0.4-0.5 inches. As a result, there is elevated fire weather conditions over eastern Nevada due to dry thunderstorms. Winds generally will be light, however thunderstorms may cause wind gusts to reach up to 50 mph. High temperatures ranging in the 80s today.

Tomorrow, chances for few strong thunderstorms in the afternoon again in northeastern Nevada. Thunderstorms are expected to be mainly dry again as atmospheric moisture still remains around 0.4-0.5 inches. Winds will be generally light, however thunderstorms may cause outflow wind gusts to reach up to 50 mph. High temperatures trending warmer in the 90s.

Over the weekend, quiet weather conditions expected each day as the upper trough begins to weaken and shift to a more southerly flow. High temperatures trending warmer in the mid to upper 90s over the weekend with light winds.

Monday, upper ridging strengthens over the four corners region with the upper trough still situated to the northwest. This pattern will set up to a more southerly monsoonal flow over Nevada. Increasing potential for afternoon convection as atmospheric moisture increase ranging from 0.55-0.65 inches across central and northern Nevada. Probabilities for afternoon thunderstorms increase up to 20-25%. High temperatures still expected to trend warmer in the mid to upper 90s with winds generally light again.

Tuesday, potential for afternoon convection remains with residual monsoonal moisture trending more across eastern Nevada as the upper ridge and upper trough begin to weaken to a more zonal flow by mid-week. Probabilities for afternoon thunderstorms lower to 15-20% across central Nevada with slightly higher probabilities over northeastern Nevada at 20-25%. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with generally light winds.

Rest of the week, convection chances dwindle to quiet weather and warming temperature trends reaching into the upper 90s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for active convective weather this afternoon over eastern Nevada with elevated dry weather conditions as convective is trending dry. Moderate confidence for convective weather over northeastern Nevada tomorrow afternoon. High confidence in warming temperature trend this weekend through next week. Moderate confidence of active monsoonal pattern forming Monday. Changes to the NBM grids to better represent active convection in the afternoons today and tomorrow.

AVIATION

VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Afternoon convection expected to bring VCTS conditions over KELY and KENV. Some convection may develop around KEKO, but VCTS will not be included in the TAF as probabilities for strong convection remains low. Southwesterly winds will be generally light at or below 10 kts, however passing thunderstorms may generate gusty erratic winds up to 40-50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over fire weather zones 469/470/425 through Thursday evening. With CWR near 0% most storm activity will be dry. Friday the storm potential is confined more to northern portions of fire weather zones 469/470. Fire weather concerns are limited through the weekend as winds across the region are light in nature.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.