textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Late October system brings valley rain/mountain snow to region Friday and Saturday

* A stronger system on Sunday will bring small snowfall accumulations to valleys; higher amounts to area peaks and ridges

* The region dries out early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current model guidance continues to show a series of waves riding the flow of a parent trough over the Pac NW into the Great Basin beginning Friday and lasting through this weekend. The first wave is a more subtle weaker wave that will pass through the region Friday. Current satellite imagery shows an increase in moisture and cloud cover across the area. This trend will continue and precipitation associated with the wave is expected to begin by early Friday AM. The first wave will be through the region by Saturday AM and will feature light valley rain and mountain snow as snow levels remain above 8500 feet across the region. Friday's rainfall totals in the valleys are the lightest of the weekend ranging 0.05-0.15 inches. Saturday trends in precipitation type are expected to continue but QPF jumps a bit especially over north central NV where amounts will range 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall.

The main trough associated with the LPC to the north-northwest and stronger of the two waves will impact the region Saturday PM through Sunday. Highest precipitation rates across northern and central NV are expected Saturday evening into Sunday. The best chances for snowfall in valleys will continue Sunday PM as snow levels fall to valley floors behind frontal passage on Sunday. Snow showers could bring a trace to an inch of snowfall along elevated roadways and mountain passes. This is especially true for portions of SR-225 between Elko and Owyhee, and along US-50 from Austin to GBNP. Sunday and early Monday AM will be the prime snowpack loading time for the regions high elevations. Peaks and ridges will take on 6 inches to a foot of fresh snowfall as the wave passes through the area. WPC 1-5 day QPF totals for the weekend will range 0.25 to 1.25 inches of precipitation with higher amounts in eastern NV especially in White Pine County.

Monday afternoon a rapid dry out will occur behind the wave when northwest flow and a PFR regime will setup over the Great Basin. Brief ridging next week over the southwestern CONUS will reign through mid week ahead of another LPC long range guidance has setting up over the Pacific potentially impacting the area next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence remains in measurable precipitation Friday through Sunday. Low confidence continues for snowfall amounts related to lower elevations on Sunday. Moderate confidence is building towards a rapid dryout next Monday. No major grid edits were needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday night at all terminals. Thursday afternoon winds gusts ranging 22-25KTs are forecasted for terminals KTPH and KELY. Wind speeds are expected to diminish around sunset this evening. CIGs will lower at KWMC and KBAM by early morning Friday. VCSH beginning around after midnight from west to east will spread to all northern terminals by Friday morning sunrise. The drop in CIGs and VCSH will lead to momentary MVFR/IFR conditions through Friday afternoon. Southerly wind gusts are expected at KELY by Friday morning gusting to 25KTs.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 24-48 hours despite stronger southerly flow ranging 15-20mph gusting to 25 mph across fire weather zones 425/426/427. A rapid increase in relative humidity associated with an imcoming system will take place Thursday evening and remain in place through the weekend. This system will effectively bring an end to the 2026 fire weather season bringing more rainfall and better mountain snowfall accumulations as we turn to the calendar to November.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.