textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Sunday

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado this weekend. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada this weekend, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage each afternoon and evening this weekend. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Saturday, July 18th, 2026:

Great Basin National Park - 44% Lund - 41% Ely - 40% Currie - 36% Jackpot - 32% Eureka - 28% Wells - 28% Ruby Lake - 27% West Wendover - 26% Elko - 18%

The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States early next week. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into all of Eastern Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Friday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Monday, July 20th, 2026:

Ely - 47% Eureka - 45% Lund - 44% Great Basin National Park - 43% Currie - 42% Ruby Lake - 41% Austin - 28% Elko - 27% Wells - 25% West Wendover - 23%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. Moderate forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

Prevailing conditions at all sites will be VFR through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected near KELY this afternoon and evening and cannot be ruled out near KENV, although probability was too low for TAF inclusion at about 15%. Thunderstorms may also result in erratic strong winds 30-40KT.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening this weekend. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.