textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry and breezy thru Friday

* Stronger winds Saturday combine with low minimum relative humidity to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

* Active pattern early next week brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A shortwave grazing the northern NV border Wednesday evening is strengthening a westerly wind field pushing wind speeds to near 20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph through early evening. The wave will drift eastward by Thursday AM allowing the pressure gradient overhead to relax.

The storm track over the western CONUS continues to remain north of the Great Basin into early next week. This keeps appreciable moisture away from the region through Saturday afternoon. A large upper level low however will begin to tighten the gradient again over the state by Friday night. Saturday a much stronger hot, dry, windy event is expected across northern and central NV. Current guidance has west-northwest wind speeds of 25-30 mph with gusts of 40-45 mph. Probability of gusts over 44 mph are currently very isolated across the area topping out between 55-60%. Wind Advisory products may be issued if winds continue to strengthen over future model runs. A low confidence chance of isolated dry thunder exists on Sunday afternoon for mainly eastern White Pine County though instability values have diminished with recent model runs.

Beyond Saturday the parent low pressure system responsible for next weeks unsettled weather will begin to drag shortwaves through the northern Rockies. The axes' of these waves will help tighten the pressure gradient over the northern extent of the state beginning Monday. The first wave is not inspiring in terms of moisture so confidence in precipitation early next week is fairly low. Another wave riding the parent low's southern flank sets up to impact the Great Basin by late week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence continues for hot, dry, windy setup through the week with a stronger wind event on track for Saturday. Low confidence exists in a more unsettled weather pattern for early next week. Wind/Wind Gust grids were bolstered for the first 18 hours using HRRR/NBM90 combo.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Thursday afternoon with no precipitation in the forecast at this time. Wednesday PM winds will be strong at KWMC, KEKO, and KBAM gusting to near 30KTs before diminishing after sunset. Westerly wind gusts at KTPH and KELY are anticipated to range 20-22KTs before diminishing after sunset Wednesday. Afternoon wind gusts Thursday will be lighter in general across the region though KTPH and KELY are forecast to see gusts ranging 20-22KTs again through Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Near critical conditions are expected through this evening in northern Nevada due to dry and windy conditions. Winds are expected to diminish Thursday before returning to enhanced on Friday, with near critical conditions forecast for fire zone 437. Winds remain elevated for Saturday, with near critical conditions forecast for all zones. Sunday will see a decrease in wind risk but an increase in risk from a low probability dry thunderstorm or two in fire zone 425.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.