textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures in the 90s today, cooling into the 80s Saturday

* Heat Risk continues this afternoon for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation today and Saturday

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next week with highs back in the 90s for all locations

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few weak echos are noted on this morning's radar loop. Skies are generally partly cloudy over the area at this time, but they are increasing from the south as the morning wears on. Satellite imagery this morning shows clouds moving north and northeast as northern and central Nevada sits under a southerly flow aloft. Current weather situation shows an upper ridge across the Desert Southwest and a weak upper trough in the eastern Pacific. These two features are bringing a south to southwest flow aloft along with an associated increase in mid- level moisture. Current activity in seen in northern California and northwestern Nevada right now and this activity is expected to make its way into northern and central Nevada later today. Current fire weather headlines will be discussed in the fire weather section below. For today, look for an increase in cloud cover along with convective activity across most of northern Nevada. Given how warm it has been, some light, though measurable rainfall is expected but will be isolated to higher elevation locations. Expecting many of the valley locations in the north seeing very little rainfall in general. Outflow winds to 50 mph are possible with any storm. High temperatures today will once again be in the 90s. In central Nevada, moisture will be more limited in the mid- levels with stronger surface winds to 35 mph. Highs across central Nevada will be in the 80s and 90s. Look for showers and storms to continue overnight across the north with lows in the 50s.

By Saturday, the upper flow will switch to the west and northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will continue in the north. Expended coverage southward with the i-80 corridor serving as the southernmost extent of the activity. High temperatures will be cooler with readings mainly in the 80s. Look for the convective activity to subside later this afternoon and evening with clouds scattering out. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper ridge is expected to intensify across the southwestern United States. This will bring warming temperatures to the region with highs climbing back into the 90s by early next week. Lows will be in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were again made to the NBM forecast to include isolated dry thunderstorms for northern Nevada this afternoon. Also, wind speeds/gusts across central Nevada was increased for this afternoon. High confidence continues today as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Confidence continues to remain low on the coverage and placement of dry thunderstorms in northern Nevada this afternoon and into the weekend. High confidence in cooler temperatures this weekend with moderate confidence in warming conditions early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through a majority of the next 24 hour forecast period. Incoming convective activity is expected to start after 19Z across the northern TAF sites KWMC- KBAM-KEKO. Main impacts will be localized outflow wind gusts to 45KT and BLDU that could quickly reduce CIGS/VSBY to MVFR/IFR conditions. Across the central terminals KTPH and KELY, winds will develop during the late morning and early afternoon S-SW10-20G30-35KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Look for dry thunderstorm activity to increase later today with isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms expected across northern Nevada in zones 424, 437, 438, 469, 470, and northeastern portions of 427, transitioning to a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms during the early evening hours tonight. Across central Nevada today, winds will strengthen over fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427. These will combine with single digit minimum relative humidity values to bring critical wind/RH conditions. Current complement of red flag warnings look good. The mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions of northern Nevada for tomorrow, though cooler temperatures and higher minimum relative humidity values may help to limit fire weather potential. Dry and warming conditions returns on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to rise through early week with dry weather.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Friday NVZ425-426-427.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM Friday NVZ424-437-438-469-470.