textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Elko County Wednesday through Friday

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening

* A warming trend through this week will sustain above average temperatures into July

* Potential for HeatRisk in the area exists starting on Sunday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite imagery shows partly sunny skies across the area today, with some developing cumulus over the high terrain as an upper trough continues to sit above the area. Temperatures are in the 70s and overnight lows will be in the 40s. Temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to ride the broader trough through the area beginning tomorrow, bringing increased moisture and instability. Isolated convective development is anticipated for northern Elko county tomorrow afternoon as a result, with CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg. Precipitable water values are sitting around half an inch which usually indicates a dry thunder threat. Thursday looks to be in between shortwave impacts, resulting in a drier and much more marginal convective atmosphere, however the second shortwave passage on Friday is expected to increase moisture again with precipitable water values reaching 0.6-0.7 inches. Winds are also expected to increase in central Nevada on Thursday, with gusts 25-30 mph. Temperatures continue to climb through the week and especially increase this weekend as the trough finally gives way to a ridging pattern. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for the holiday weekend. An excessive heat threat remains possible, with moderate heat risk values mixing into northern Nevada for Sunday. Very warm temperatures are expected to continue to start next week, with high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 90s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in warm temperatures through the weekend. Moderate confidence in convection on Wednesday, but low confidence for Thursday and Friday. Moderate confidence in calm weather after Friday. PoPs and thunder probabilities were increased slightly for Friday afternoon to better reflect convective potential.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and winds under 10KT expected at all sites except KWMC and KEKO, where afternoon gusts around 18KT are expected for a few hours today.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet weather continues through Tuesday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon Wednesday through Friday of this week for the northern half of fire weather zones 438/469/470. On Thursday antecedent low RH values combined with elevated southwest wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph for fire weather zones 425/426/427. No fire products are needed at the moment but conditions are worth monitoring in those locations.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.