textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes. Much stronger winds are in store Friday and Saturday

* Temperatures will gradually cool each afternoon beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

* Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm possible on Monday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN upper level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Friday will drag a shortwave just to the north of the state by Saturday. While most of the effects of this system will remain north of the state, increased westerly wind flow in the base of the trough to the north will influence surface flow over northern NV Friday afternoon.

Saturday stronger southerly flow over central NV will push wind speeds to around 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph through Saturday afternoon. The parent trough to the north will begin to drag a shortwave closer to the the western CONUS on Sunday. This shortwave will amplify and strengthen Sunday into Monday. By Monday morning a closed low will push across CA into southern NV.

Moisture and vorticity advection in the downstream of the shortwave will create precipitation chances for eastern NV on Monday as PW values climb into the 0.5-0.6 inch range over northeastern Nye, White Pine, and Elko Counties. Forcing with this system will be available mainly along the eastern border where LI's of 0 to -2 will be collocated with CAPE values up to 350 J/kg. Storm activity is expected to be isolated with only highest peaks and ridges in White Pine County seeing any measurable rainfall. Ridging builds into the area by Tuesday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for fair weather conditions through the weekend. Low confidence exists in precipitation chances and amounts on Monday. No major grid edits needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Saturday afternoon with no precipitation in the forecast. Friday afternoon wind gusts out of the west-southwest will gust 30-35KTs at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Wind speeds are forecast to be between 22-25KTs at KELY and KTPH Friday afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish around sunset Friday evening. Southerly wind gusts Saturday afternoon at KTPH and KELY will range 25-30KTs into Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated westerly wind speeds across northern NV fire zones 437/438/469/470 Friday afternoon will range 22-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph possible. Minimum Friday afternoon RH values in these locations are above criteria so fire weather products are not anticipated at this time. Saturday afternoon southerly wind speeds for fire weather zones 425/426/427 will range 20-22 mph with gusts near 30 mph. No thunderstorm activity is forecasted through the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.