textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* High pressure produces warm and dry weather through Wednesday.

* Record high temperatures are likely, beginning Sunday and persisting through Wednesday * Gusty winds across the forecast area and a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms north of I-80 Wednesday evening

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate over much of the western US through Wednesday, as the result of a blocking pattern. As a result dry conditions with temperatures warming 15 to 20 degrees above normal will be likely through midweek. Daytime temperatures will likely be near to, or exceed record highs Sunday through Wednesday afternoon as highs reach the lower 90s, with a 75% to 100% chance of highs above 85 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Winds for this period will be generally Westerly at 10 mph to 20 mph with occasional gusts up to 35 mph possible. Wednesday afternoon models have been hinting at the passage of a upper trough that would kick the ridge east, and may bring a 10%-20% chance of showers across northern Nevada Wednesday evening. As well as, push a cool front through the area Thursday. EC and GFS solutions have continued to diverge as the EC favors a weaker trough that is farther north, and much faster, showing the trough over the northern plains by Thursday. The GFS solutions have continued to favor a much stronger system that is farther south with its track, with a closed low over central Nevada Thursday evening with showers and thunderstorms possible over much of the area. As a result confidence in the upper pattern has degraded after Wednesday evening. For now, have decided not to make any major changes in the longer term, but ave went ahead and enhanced the cooling trend forecast Thursday through next weekend by a few degrees, as well as raised pops across northern Nevada to about 15% to 25%. Which may need to be raised and drawn further south if trends consolidate in a wetter solution. As for now temperatures look to cool back into the low to upper 70s, with a few 80s across N Nye county Thursday through Sunday. Winds will be a bit lighter too out of the west to NW at 5 to 15 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH possible

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for warming temperatures and dry conditions through Wednesday of next week.

There is high confidence for a period of near record to record heat starting Saturday, and lasting through Wednesday afternoon.

There is moderate confidence in cooler temperature Thursday through Sunday as ridge shifts eastward.

There is low to moderate confidence in the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorm north of the I-80 corridor Wednesday evening.

There is very low confidence in the possibility of shower and thunderstorm south of the I-80 corridor Wednesday evening through Thursday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions remain in place through Monday afternoon under mostly sunny and clear skies with a few high level clouds overhead at times. Winds will again be generally light to breezy Sunday and Monday afternoons.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure remains in control across the much of the west through Wednesday afternoon will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Warming temperature are forecast to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal, reaching near to, or exceeding record highs, Sunday through Wednesday afternoon. Breezy afternoon westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, will combine with the temperatures to drop Humidity levels to the teens and single digits through at least Wednesday of next week. Winds will be even stronger Wednesday afternoon and evening as a upper trough passes to the north. West to SW winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible, as well as a few isolated showers or thunderstorms across northern Nevada. Temperatures begin a cooling trend Thursday through Sunday as winds shift to the NW at 5 to 15 MPH.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.