textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend this weekend into early next week

* Potential exists for isolated showers and storms Monday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Light showers with a a few lightning strikes have been observed across northeastern Nevada this afternoon. CAPE values are fairly meager with readings of about 100-200J/kg and weak instability. Look for the isolated storms to gradually diminish during the overnight hours. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s and 50s.

Model simulations are depicting a slow rise in heights for Independence Day. This will result in increasing afternoon high temperatures. Overall temperatures will warm by 3 to 6 degrees or so versus Friday afternoon's high temperatures. Readings will be in the low to mid 90s with a few of the warmer locales seeing the upper 90s. Skies will remain mostly sunny though the afternoon with light winds. Look for quiet overnight conditions with lows in the 50s with light winds.

Height rises are expected to maximize Sunday with very warm afternoon temperatures. Highs will make it into the mid to upper 90s across much of the area. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon, especially across central Nevada with occasional gusts to 20 mph out of the south. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

An upper level ridge circulation is forecast to develop across the four-corners region on Monday. This will bring a south to southwest flow across northern and central Nevada. Precipitable water values will be around two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon with storms generally trending more dry than wet. Highs will be warm with readings in the mid 90s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph in central Nevada, though minimum relative humidity values will be in the teens.

The upper ridge will be suppressed and move west, as an upper trough treks across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies of the United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the flow is expected to turn more to the southwest, a slightly drier air mass is expected to filter east. This will keep isolated thunderstorms mainly across eastern Nevada Tuesday with dry conditions Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s during both afternoons with lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday, look for dry conditions both days as the models show ridge intensifying. This will bring relatively dry conditions with temperatures warming again into the mid to upper 90s by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to the near term NBM forecast to account for the limited CAPE and instability in this afternoon's forecast. No other changes were made. Confidence continues to be high with warming temperatures for the upcoming weekend, through next week. Low to moderate confidence of an upcoming active pattern as subtropical moisture tries to move north on Monday through early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be generally light at or below 10KT with occasional gusts to 20KT.

AMD NOT SKED for KEKO due to possible communications issue.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated, light showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain over portions of fire zone 470 this evening. Warm, afternoon temperatures will be continuing through the weekend. By the afternoon hours on Independence day, high temperatures will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures will remain above seasonal values each afternoon Sunday through Thursday. A subtropical moisture push from the south may make its way northward into Northern and Central Nevada early next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.