textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through Thursday

* Moderate Heat Risk for Thursday...especially for the low desert of eastern Elko county to include the Wendover area.

* Chances for monsoon storms return starting Friday afternoon

* Elevated fire weather concerns this weekend over portions of Humboldt

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper high pressure ridge will be responsible for the hot and dry conditions through Thursday (Max Temps: upper 90s to lower 100s & MinRH values in the 10 to 15% range). The impinging low pressure trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest will begin to weak and flatten the ridge of high pressure over northern Nevada from Friday into the weekend and early next week. The trough will introduce a southernly flow to most of the northern Nevada except for Humboldt, thus introducing increasing moisture and the return of the threat of monsoon T-Storms and increasing RH Friday into early next week. The T-Storm percentage during this time period will range from 20 to 50 percent chance. Max Temperatures during this time period will lower down into the 80s and 90s more seasonable for this time of the year. For portions of Lander, Humboldt, and western Elko counties the trough will bring increase south to southwest flow with lower RHs coming off the the Sierra range, thus producing potential Red Flag or elevated fire weather conditions over a portion of the aforemention area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for chances of warming temperatures through Thursday afternoon, with heat headlines possible for SE Elko county.

There low confidence for a 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for northern White Pine and southeastern Elko counties late this afternoon and evening and then again over far northern central and northeastern Elko county Thursday afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce localize outflow wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

There is moderate confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture over portions of northern Nevada, beginning Friday afternoon over most areas accept for portions of Humboldt and northwest Lander counties. Where the extent of the monsoon moisture reaches into, there will be a afternoon and evening 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence is moderate for dry and windy conditions to develop over mainly Humboldt county starting Saturday and through the rest of the weekend increasing the threat of elevated fire weather concerns.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Thursday. Afternoon - early evening winds from the south - southwest will be out of the west to southwest at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts from 20 to 30 mph across northern Nevada and TAF sites. There will be a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated thunderstorm north of KELY and over towards KENV through this evening. If enroute across the area of T-storms, look for the following impacts; lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds up to 45KT, however not directly impacting TAF sites of KENV OR KELY.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday NVZ033.