textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada through Sunday evening

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado today. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada through Sunday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage through evening hours. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada today. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States early next week. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into all of Eastern Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Friday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Monday, July 20th, 2026:

Ely - 47% Eureka - 45% Lund - 44% Great Basin National Park - 43% Currie - 42% Ruby Lake - 41% Austin - 28% Elko - 27% Wells - 25% West Wendover - 23%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada this afternoon and evening. Moderate forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. NBM thunderstorm coverage over eastern portions of the CWA was not representative of forecast guidance and high resolution model output. Pops was enhanced using SST and SerpISC so that Wx grids would better reflect coverage Sunday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION

Prevailing conditions at all sites will be VFR through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected near KELY this afternoon and evening and cannot be ruled out near KENV, although probability was too low for TAF inclusion at about 15%. Thunderstorms may also result in erratic strong winds 30-40KT.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon and evening. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.