textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures in the 90s today create HeatRisk, cooling into the 80s Saturday

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation through Saturday

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next week with highs back in the 90s for all locations

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot afternoon temperatures in the 90s Friday afternoon will be tempered over the weekend thanks to an upper level system that will drag a weak cold front through the state this evening. The system is also creating shower and thunderstorms chances across central and northern NV this evening, as evidenced by satellite and radar imagery this afternoon. Better coverage of showers and storms is possible north of I-80 tonight. Rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch are possible across northern NV locations this evening as dry thunderstorms transition to more wet than dry Friday evening.

On Saturday the threat of storms still exists for northern NV where an unusual setup has resulted in a Fire Weather Watch for Elko County on Saturday. While moisture availability is strong (0.5 up to 0.8 inches by Saturday afternoon) and LCL levels are favorable for wetting rains, westerly storm motions of 20-25KTs along the northern border mitigate the effects of precipitation. This creates fire weather conditions even in the presence of rainfall. The strong winds are a result of an efficient pressure gradient in the axis of the system traversing the northern half of the state. The system and its forcing push eastward by Saturday night drying the area out.

Zonal flow sets up over the Great Basin on Sunday and into early next week before an HPC over northern Mexico builds into the area from the south. The strengthening ridge will return warmer temperatures of 10-15 degrees above normal to the area by mid week. This will increase HeatRisk Tuesday and Wednesday and threaten several area climate records for high temperature.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for hot afternoon high temperatures for Friday. Moderate confidence exists in thunderstorms across northern NV through Saturday afternoon. NBM continues to perform poorly accurately depicting DryT in Wx grids so a variety of edits were performed (ModelBlend, SST, SerpISC) to fix hourly and 3-hourly grids in the short term through Saturday afternoon. Building confidence continues for a drier, warmer period of weather into middle of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through Saturday afternoon. Southerly wind gusts for KTPH and KELY through Friday evening will range 30-33KTs. VCTS is forecast for terminals KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and KBAM through late Friday evening. Winds in and around TS activity will be gusty and erratic. VCTS is forecast for KEKO, KELY, and KENV beginning Saturday morning and lasting through the afternoon. Wind gusts on Saturday ranging 22-25KTs are forecast for KEKO and KENV terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag conditions continue for all fire weather zones through Friday evening. A hot dry windy threat exists for fire weather zones 425/426/427 through 11PM this evening. A dry thunder threat exists for fire weather zones 424/437/438/469/470 for the same time Friday evening. On Saturday a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Elko County fire weather zones 438/469/470 for dry thunderstorm conditions. While the setup for thunderstorms is sufficiently wet with favorable moisture and lower cloud bases, the fast moving nature of storms that do occur will mitigate the effects of precipitation on any lightning causing ignitions. The Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 9AM to 5PM PDT on Saturday. The threat of storms exits the region after Saturday beginning calmer, warmer weather by next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories