textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of northern and central Nevada through today.

* A short weather break possible mid-week, followed by additional periods of active weather for the upcoming weekend.

* Temperatures continue to remain at or below normal for the next couple days.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear at this time across northern and central Nevada. For later today, an upper trough that is across central and southern California will drift to the east and northeast across the forecast area. Subtropical moisture from the south will be pulled northward towards central Nevada. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to 0.60 to 0.80 inches by later this afternoon. Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing later this morning and afternoon. Main threats today will be wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, Locally brief, moderate to heavy rain is also possible with any storm. Highs today will be in the 80s for the most part, though in central Nevada where cloud cover will be most prevalent, highs will be in the 70s. Look for the activity to diminish by the early evening with lows in the 40s and 50s.

On Tuesday, some remnant subtropical moisture will exist over the northeast parts of Elko county, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. otherwise, most areas will see mostly sunny skies. Winds will be breezy across the area with gusts to 30 mph in spots. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the 40s.

From Wednesday through Friday, an upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest will wobble with bits of energy rounding the base of the trough and moving through the western United States. At this time, moisture appears scant with breezy afternoon winds to 20 to 30 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday, there is a tropical system across the eastern Pacific at this time that is expected to move north towards Baja California. The aforementioned upper trough in the Pacific Northwest will shift slowly to the south. By the weekend, there are indications these two systems may interact with each other, allowing for moisture to be drawn northward. At this time, very low confidence exists in this scenario and it will need to be watched closely. PoPs and associated gridded forecast will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the upcoming weekend but timing, coverage, and extent all are variables that will need to be further refined in the coming days. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: A few adjustments were made to the PoPs, Wx, and winds to reflect current and ongoing conditions. Confidence is moderate to high for precipitation chances this afternoon, but remains low with respect to amounts and location of convective activity. Confidence is moderate at this time regarding the mid-week break in weather. Confidence is very low for this weekend's possible weekend storm.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals through the next 24 hour period. Late morning and afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA expected across the eastern TAF sites KELY-KENV-KEKO. Any TS that does occur may create momentary MVFR/IFR condtions over terminals due to brief moderate SHRA/TSRA, wind gusts to 40KT, and localized BLDU. Winds will be S-SW10-20G30KT at all sites during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

An upper level trough will be moving towards the fire district today. As a result, precipitable water values will be increasing during the late morning through the afternoon. For today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across central and northern Nevada. Primary threats will be dangerous lightning, gusty erratic winds that will enhance extreme fire behavior, and localized flooding especially over recent burn scars where debris flows are possible. On Tuesday, west winds will be a bit stronger over fire zone 437, as well as across central Nevada, and combined with lower relative humidity values, will lead to elevated fire weather concerns in north-central and central Nevada. A break from the showers and storms are possible by mid-week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.