textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions in parts of Eastern Nevada Sunday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening

* Showers likely in East Central Nevada Monday

* Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

One last mostly quiet day weather wise on tap, before an upper trough prepares to move across the region. This also means one more day of breezy winds for east-central Nevada, keeping fire weather conditions elevated to near critical as SW winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will possible for NE Nye, White Pine, and SE Elko counties. Elsewhere winds will be lighter out of the SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Sunday night and trough Monday, The GFS and ECMWF have continued to trend a little bit farther south with the track of the trough, a bit deeper, while continuing to depict a quick moving system. However, just as it exits Nevada, this trough will tap into tropical moisture from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo, which will lead to a excessive rainfall for Utah, Arizona, and points east. Depending on timing there may be a window for wrap-around moisture to impact southeastern White Pine county Monday evening, but for now holding precipitation amounts steady as confidence is not quiet there yet. That being said, there is a 20% to 50% chance for light isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms accompanying trough passage late Sunday night through early Tuesday morning. However the best chances at seeing rain has trended south across central Nevada, with thunderstorm chances limited to the southern portions of NE Nye, and White Pine counties.. Amounts still look light with a trace to 0.05 for northern Nevada, while central Nevada may see a trace up to 0.50 for the mountains of Great Basin National Park. Tuesday and Wednesday shortwave ridging returns bringing another period of quiet weather conditions back to the Silver State. Thursday into next weekend model agreement has been a bit better with recent runs, as models show ridging over the great basin, but there is still a bit of disagreement on orientation of the upper flow as solutions vary from NW to SW flow aloft. Temperature wise, a cooling trend is underway through Tuesday, with highs falling into the mid 70s. Wednesday will start a new slow warming trend, with the return of upper ridging as highs return to the lower 80s. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate to high confidence in the potential for a 20% chance for isolated showers across northern Nevada, and a 30% to 60% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada Monday.

There is high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

FR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Monday morning afternoon. Winds will be light to breezy for KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO with SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across central Nevada, including KTPH, KELY, and KENV will be stronger out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gust to 30KT possible. Sunday night there is a 20% chance for light isolated VCSH for KWMC, and KBAM as a upper level storm system begins to move across Nevada.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will remain elevated to near critical fire zone 425, and eastern sections of 426, and 427 through Sunday, as the area of tighter pressure gradient shifts into central Nevada due to an approaching upper trough. Winds across the above zones will run out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH whereas SW winds will be lighter to the south at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Minimum RH values will remain in the upper teens to upper 20s percentage which with only partially cured fuels, will keep fire weather conditions from reaching Red Flag criteria. Sunday night through Tuesday morning there will be a 20% chance for isolated showers across northern Nevada, and a 30% to 60% chance for isolated to scattered showers as well as a few thunderstorms for central Nevada. Amounts still look light with a trace to a 0.15 for valleys, and up to 0.50 of rain possible for the eastern mountain ranges. After Tuesday high pressure builds across the SW US, bringing quiet conditions to NV.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.