textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of northern Nevada this afternoon and into this evening * Warming trend Thursday and Friday

* Next round of precipitation is expected this weekend with generally unsettled weather into next week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Robust closed upper low has effectively weakened into an open wave with the trof axis residing over the PacNW and Nevada. Unsettled weather will be in place thru the rest of this afternoon as light showers move from west to east across northern Nevada with central Nevada remaining mostly dry. There will also be a low chance for weak, low topped, thunderstorms this afternoon with just enough instability present under the cooler air mass. The typical hazards of occasional lightning and strong and erratic outflow gusts of 45 mph can be expected under any such storms along with graupel. Any thunderstorms that do form will be primarily situated across northern Elko County. Not expecting any significant additional precipitation accumulation today across the area with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. However the Jarbidge Wilderness and Independence Range will likely see an additional 2-3 inches of snow accumulation. Westerly breezes will ease thru the afternoon and evening. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s with mid to upper teens in the typical colder valleys.

Fairer weather Thursday and Friday under northwesterly flow as the afore mentioned upper level trof intensifies into a deep closed low over the Prairie Provinces while high pressure resides off the west coast. West-northwesterly breezes will be present each afternoon. Temperatures also warm each day, with daytime highs mostly in the 60s by Friday afternoon.

Next bout of active weather and precipitation moves in Saturday from the west, bringing valley rain and mountain snow to the forecast area. Breezes will also be present. Anticipating weather to remain generally unsettled into early next week with light showers each day Monday thru Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru Friday, becoming moderate this weekend, primarily with regard to precipitation accumulation including high elevation snow. Otherwise timing looks to be relatively on track. Significant change to PoPs within the short term of the most recent forecast, utilizing a blend of WPC guidance and various high-res and global numerical models. NBM PoPs much too bullish in the short term. Otherwise little to no change elsewhere in the gridded forecast.

AVIATION

VFR condtions look to prevail thru tomorrow afternoon, though VCSH is forecast at all terminals this afternoon aside for KTPH. Locally lower CIGs can be expected under any showers that move in vicinity or on terminal, which may intermittently reduce flight condtions to MVFR. Low and mid level clouds across the forecast area this afternoon will also cause concern for mountain obscuration. Low probability of TS this afternoon as well, primarily at KEKO and KENV. Not enough confidence however to include TS or VCTS in the TAF. Otherwise westerly breezes will continue thru this afternoon with gusts 20-25KT at all terminals, though the trend will be for decreasing wind speeds thru the afternoon and evening. Generally lighter winds on Thursday under mostly clear skies.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.