textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low stratus and patchy valley freezing fog early this morning

* Patchy freezing fog tonight and early Sunday morning with greater areal coverage

* Gradual warming trend and fair weather continues into Monday

* Low chance of valley rain and mountain snow in Northern Nevada Monday and Monday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery as of 130 AM PDT this morning depicts ample low stratus clouds across the forecast area. Expecting patchy freezing fog to develop this morning as well, primarily within valleys where cloud cover breaks and mostly clear skies become present before sunrise. Otherwise weather will be fair today under high pressure. Daytime high temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, residing in the upper 40s to upper 50s. For tonight, anticipating mostly clear skies and light to calm winds which will help promote the formation of freezing fog within most of the valleys across the forecast area given the recent rainfall event. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s, with mid to upper teens in the typical colder valleys. Fair weather and gradual warming trend continues thru Sunday.

By Sunday night, numerical model guidance remains consistent in a modest low pressure system moving into the PacNW. The cold front associated with this system looks to move into northern Nevada from the west-northwest on Monday. Light valley rain and mountain snow showers are forecast beginning Monday afternoon and thru Monday night with valley rain likely transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight. Not anticipating any significant precipitaton accumulation with this event and totals will likely remain around a tenth of an inch or less. Southwesterly breezes will also be present on Monday in conjunction with the passing cold front.

Fair weather returns Tuesday and persists thru mid week with seasonal temperatures. Potential for precipitaton returns to the forecast in the Thursday night to Friday time frame as another Pacific trof is indicated to move into the western U.S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a gradual warming trend into Monday. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of valley rain and mountain snow in Northern Nevada Monday afternoon thru Monday night.

Various model blends and WPC guidance utilized for PoP and weather fields.

AVIATION

Cloud cover will begin to clear in earnest later this morning, after sunrise, with mostly clear skies expected across northern and central Nevada by mid day today. VCFG is also expected at KBAM early this morning, primarily between 10Z and 16Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail thru the majority of the day and tonight, especially as clouds dissipate thru the morning. There will be additional concern for VCFG the latter half of tonight and early Sunday morning at most terminals as FZFG is expected to be more widespread across the valleys within the forecast area given the recent rainfall and mostly clear skies and light winds forecast for tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and fair weather under a modest warming trend will continue thru the weekend. Light valley rain and mountain snow showers are expected across northern Nevada on Monday and Monday night as a modest cold front moves thru the PacNW and northern Nevada. Though any precipitaton that falls will likely remain around 0.10 inches or less. Also anticipating southwesterly breezes along the cold front with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Fair weather returns thru mid week with potential for precipitaton returning to the forecast in the Thursday night to Friday time frame as another Pacific trof is indicated to move into the western U.S.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.