textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening through Wednesday * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current radar loop is showing convective activity developing across portions of central Nevada as well as far northwestern Humboldt county this afternoon. Where storms have moved over remote observation platforms, only light precipitation has been recorded. A cell moved just north of Eureka airport and the AWOS there reported a hundredth of an inch of precipitation. This activity is lining up well with current low-level convergent axis that set up in central Nevada, through the northeastern portion of the forecast area. In addition, surface based CAPE values of 250-500J/kg and negative lifted indices will promote continued storm development during the latter portions of the afternoon and early evening before dissipating. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Drier air is forecast to move northward and into portions of central Nevada tomorrow as precipitable water values lower to about a half inch or so. Further to the north and east, the air mass will remain more moist with values of two-thirds of an inch or higher. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern Nevada with the highest probability over Elko county. This is coincident with surface based CAPE values of about 400 to 700J/kg. Thunderstorms will continue to be of a mixed variety as storm motions of 15 knots or so will keep the heaviest rainfall over the core of storms. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

By Wednesday, models are showing the drier mass continuing its eastward push into the region. Precipitable water values will drop to a half-inch or less with the highest values across portions of Elko and WHite Pine counties, east to the border with Utah (greater than a half inch). Consequently, the highest chances for isolated showers and wet/dry thunderstorms will be in northeastern Elko county. Highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday through the weekend. All models are showing the upper ridge retrograding to the west on Thursday before moving back east and building during the early weekend period. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. On Thursday, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but warming to the mid 90s to low 100s on Friday, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed of portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids required adjustments in the short term to account for development/evolution of hybrid isolated wet/dry thunderstorms due to fire weather concerns. Used HRRR and CAMs as baseline for areal coverage of storms for today/tonight. Low to moderate confidence exists for PoP coverage Tuesday. Moderate confidence on upper ridge build late in the week, with moderate confidence on HeatRisk for Friday and the weekend.

AVIATION

ISOLD -TSRA will continue across portions of northern and central Nevada through the early evening. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of KEKO and KENV. Winds will generally light, however any thunderstorms could produce gusty outflow winds reaching up to 45 kts. VFR conditions continue tomorrow with the highest probability for -TSRA will be at the KENV terminal with outflow winds to 40 kts

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated, mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with isolated to scattered showers will continue across portions of Northern and Central Nevada this evening. The main threats will be strong outflow winds near 50 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. The areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish eastward each afternoon through Thursday. By Thursday and the weekend, temperatures warm with increasing likelihood of triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Friday through Sunday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.