textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong, gusty south to southwest winds in White Pine, Northeastern Nye, and Southeastern Elko Counties today through 11 PM

* Strong, gusty south to southwest winds for White Pine and Elko Counties tomorrow

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon

* A few intense thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Passing cold front from a low pressure system will move across Nevada with recent models showing the center of the system staying more to the west. This pattern will keep most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures expected with the front towards the western half of the forecast region, while the eastern half will experience strong gusty winds with drier air this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Cooler temperatures from the cold front will stay more towards western Nevada with highs reaching into the 50s to 60s while eastern Nevada will be in the 70s. Precipitation amounts have also come down with accumulated values between 0.2-0.35 inches across the valleys for Humboldt, Lander, and northwestern Nye County. Snow values remain elevated but mountain snow is expected mainly across the Toiyabe Range in northwestern Nye and Lander counties, with mountains seeing up to 6-8 inches possible. Snow levels will drop below 7000 feet overnight and into Wednesday morning, allowing light amounts of snow to reach along higher passes and summits near Austin with up to 0.5 inches of snow. Eureka County and western Elko County are seeing a 20% probability of up to 0.05 inches. East of that, precipitation values dissipate as the system stalls from going east due to a high pressure system situating over central CONUS. This leaves our eastern zones with much drier conditions and strong gusty winds this afternoon and tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances up to 10-15% today with tomorrow seeing slightly higher chances up to 15-20% mainly across central Nevada between US-50 and I-80 corridors. Winds this afternoon remain elevated at 15-20 mph, gusts up to 40-50 mph across northwestern Nye, southern Elko, and White Pine Counties. By the evening, winds will become lighter across the west, however eastern Nevada still has an 80% probability of seeing gusts greater than 30 mph overnight. Tomorrow, strong southerly winds shift more across White Pine County and into Elko county with a 45% probability of seeing greater than 40-50 mph gusts. Temperatures will still be cooler than normal in western Nevada with highs in the 50s to 60s, while eastern Nevada be in the 60s to 70s.

Thursday, precipitation values are much drier with only northwestern Nye county seeing a 40-50% chance of up to 0.05-0.1 inch of precipitation and up to 1 inch of mountain snow. Winds will not be as strong as previous days, but will still be breezy over the eastern zones from the south up to 15-20 mph, gusts 30-40 mph. Slightly warmer temperatures with 60s across the region except for 50s in northwestern Nye County, and 70s in Elko County.

Friday, models have the low pressure system weakening and moving northeast which will be absorbed by a longwave trough towards the north later in the day. Probabilities for precipitation will be higher with much of probabilities moving north from the southwest, seeing chances of up to 50-70% of up to 0.05 inches of rain (higher amounts up to 0.1-0.2 inches in the mountains along the northern state border). Snow values expected to be lower with up to less than an inch over Toiyabe range and snow levels increasing as warmer temperatures begin to move in. Temperatures expected to be in the 60s with 50s across portions of central Nevada.

Saturday, the low pressure will have been absorbed into the longwave trough with chances for some lingering showers remaining across northern Nevada as the longwave trough does reach into Nevada. Accumulations for rain expected to be light with up to 50-60% of seeing up to 0.03 inches (0.2 inches along Jarbidge Wilderness Area). Mountain snow is not expected as snow levels rise back over 10,000 feet as warmer temperatures move back in from the south with highs in the 60s to 70s. Winds will be generally light.

Sunday through Tuesday, the longwave trough is expected to be pushed north out of Nevada as upper ridging begins to move back over the southwestern CONUS. Quiet weather conditions with warming temperatures will be the dominant weather with high temperatures expected to reach back above normal in the 80s by Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of strong gusty winds over eastern Nevada this afternoon and tomorrow. High confidence of the low pressure system stalling more over western Nevada lasting through Friday. Moderate confidence of precipitation over western Nevada, low confidence for eastern Nevada. Moderate confidence the system moves northeast out of Nevada by Saturday. High confidence of upper ridging and warmer temperatures returning by Sunday. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected to be the dominant category across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. A cold front moving across western Nevada will bring strong southerly winds which will affect all terminals today with speeds up to 10-25 kts, gusts as high as 20-40 kts with the stronger winds more towards the eastern terminals. MVFR conditions or lower possible from blowing dust. This evening and overnight, winds dissipate over KWMC, KBAM, KTPH, and KEKO up to 10 kts, however KELY and KENV are expected to have strong southerly winds continue with speeds up to 20-30 kts, gusts 40 kts. Precipitation chances possible over KWMC and KBAM today as the cold front stalls across western Nevada, giving VCSH and -SHRA conditions over the terminals. 10-20% chance for thunderstorms today. Outflow winds from thunderstorms may cause strong gusty erratic winds up to 45-50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

A passing cold front will push south across western Nevada with increasing southerly winds affecting all zones today. The system will stall over western Nevada, leaving much of the precipitation today over western fire zones 424, 427, 437 and parts of 438. Eastern zones will see drier weather conditions with even stronger winds associated with the front. Southerly winds up to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph over zones 425, 426, eastern parts of 427, and 470. All other zones will see winds up to 15-25 mph, gusts 25-35 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions over the eastern fire zones as RH values drop to around 15% with strong winds above 30 mph, however no RFW issued as fuel moistures remain green. Tomorrow, strong southerly winds up to 20-30 mph, gusts 50 mph continue across zones 425, 470, and into 469 and 438.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ031-033>035-039.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033>035-039-041.