textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Moderate Heat Risk today...especially for the low desert of eastern Elko county to include the Wendover area.

* Heat Advisory in effect for SE Elko County today

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday afternoon and lasting through the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Very warm temperatures with moderate heat risk in Wendover area today as the upper ridge over the southwest remained in place. Heat Advisory is still in effect for the Wendover area until 9 pm this evening. There is a slight chance some isolated dry thunderstorms in northeastern Elko county along the Jarbidge Wilderness area.

Tomorrow, an upper level ridge over the Pacific northwest will push into the northern part of CONUS. This will help push the upper ridge in the southwest east towards New Mexico area which will bring back the monsoon southerly flow into Nevada. By tomorrow afternoon, the flow will bring in ample mid level moisture to give a 20-40% chance for a mix of isolated wet/dry thunderstorms across central Nevada. Models are showing a trend of excessive rainfall in the area as PWAT values elevate up to an inch with ample instability in the area, however fast storm motions and very dry subsurface layer may limit the amount of rainfall in a given area, becoming more widespread. There is still a slight chance some areas may receive up to 0.25 inches of rain however confidence is more in line for areas receiving up to 0.1 inches of rain. Temperatures will begin towards a cooling trend however highs remain above normal in the upper 90s across the region. Elevated winds in the afternoon up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph.

Saturday, increasing chances for more isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central and northeastern Nevada as monsoonal flow continues over the southwest. Some mixing in the subsurface layer will aid in more precipitation from reaching the valley floors, however storm motion remains high which will limit some of the precipitation. Temperatures continue on a cooling trend with highs now into the low 90s with some areas reaching into the 80s. Elevated winds in the afternoon up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph.

Sunday, chances for more isolated to scattered thunderstorms again but more across northeastern Nevada as the upper trough to the north moves east across Canada, allowing the upper ridge to spread back out and flatten. This will begin to cut off the monsoonal flow in the area as it will transition to a more southwesterly flow with drier air moving into the state. Temperatures are expected to cool to its lowest over the weekend yet remain in the upper 80s to 90s. Elevated winds in the afternoon up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph.

Monday and through the next week, some lingering moisture in the air will linger across Nevada, however chances for additional thunderstorms will remain for portions of northeastern Nevada as the moisture pushes eastward. By mid-week, much of the moisture will have pushed out of Nevada with drier conditions taking over as the upper ridge across the southern CONUS flattens out with an upper level trough to the northwest, however lingering chances for more isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time across northeastern Nevada. Temperatures expected to remain steady through the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated winds each afternoon up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. KELY and KTPH will both experience winds gusting up to 25KT through the afternoon hours, dying down near sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated dry/windy fire weather conditions today and tomorrow ahead of the next monsoonal push. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to kick off in earnest in central Nevada tomorrow with a mix of wet and dry thunder. Storms expand for the weekend and are expected to transition to fully wet storms as moisture increases. Zone 437 may still see elevated dry/windy conditions this weekend depending on the westward extent of the moisture.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ033.