textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected through this weekend.

* Confidence is increasing with respect to well above normal temperatures by early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are sunny across a majority of northern and central Nevada this afternoon. A few, high-based clouds have developed across portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Winds are occasionally breezy. The quiet weather will continue into the overnight hours with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The upper ridge will be wobbling out in the eastern Pacific with weak troughing setting up across California on Saturday. Conditions will remain dry across northern and central Nevada but a few buildups can be expected across central Nevada. No precipitation is expected at this time. Winds will be out of the west and northwest with some afternoon gusts to 25 mph or so. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s. Dry and quiet weather expected for the night time with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The upper trough will continue settling over central California on Sunday. Limited instability and a slow moisture seep in the low to mid-levels will bring a low probability (ten percent) of isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of southeastern White Pine county Sunday afternoon. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday through Thursday, heights will slowly rise during this time period. As such, temperatures will experience slight warming with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s with dry conditions. HeatRisk will need to be examined, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, for possible heat headlines in zone 033. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s through this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Tweaks were made to the NBM forecast for Sunday with regards to the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorms in southeast White Pine county Sunday afternoon. Confidence in the placement and coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms is low at this time. Confidence is currently high with the dry and warming conditions through the weekend into early next week. Confidence is moderate in the upcoming heat for the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through the upcoming 24 hours. Winds continue to be out of the west and northwest 10-15G20-25KT for the rest of the afternoon before diminishing later this evening. Expect the winds to redevelop tomorrow afternoon W-NW10-15G20-25KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Look for elevated fire weather conditions over the next few days as the upper level ridge builds east. West to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to 25 mph are expected. An isolated dry thunderstorm (five to ten percent) cannot be ruled out across southeast zone 425 Saturday. A quick moving trough passing to the north will shift winds out of the north Sunday and Monday, but speeds remain similar. Limited moisture and instability will try to make its way into the southeastern portions of zone 425 Sunday afternoon with a ten percent probability of isolated dry thunderstorms near Great Basin National Park. Warming temperatures will continue, rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s by early to middle portions of next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.