textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* high atmospheric moisture content set to decline

* Shower and storm chances diminish each afternoon, ending Sunday

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada Friday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper trough that has helped bring need rain and thundershowers to the Silver State is on its way east toward the central plains. Upper level ridge will shift back west and south through the end of the week, cutting of the monsoon moisture feed allowing for storm chances to wind down through the weekend. Thursday the ridge will build west, as it re-establishes over the SW US the southern flow will shift to Southwesterly flow cutting of our monsoon moisture supply. For Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend see shower and storm chances drop each day, as well as coverage becoming more isolated and sparse as dry air shifts west to east, culminating with Sunday afternoon being the last chance for storms until the end of the month. With the drying trend, temperatures are set to gradually warm through the weekend with high pressure in control. There is one caveat with this scenario, and that is exact ridge location, current model shows the ridge keeping the monsoonal flow to our east through next Thursday, but if the ridge shifts slightly east storm chances may return to far eastern NV as early as Next Tuesday, however confidence is low for this possibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for decreasing thunderstorm chances each afternoon, eventually ending by Sunday afternoon.

There moderate confidence in the potential for warming temperatures through the weekend as high pressure shifts SW from the southern plains.

There is low confidence in the return of monsoonal showers as early as Next Tuesday for far eastern NV.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. A low 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, KBAM, and KENV Thursday afternoon into this evening. Direct terminal impact cannot be ruled out. The strongest thunderstorms could produce erratic wind gusts near 40 knots and reduced visibility in heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

20% chance for isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from the past few days (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.