textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada.

* Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday

* Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather in place tonight with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, low 20s in the typical cold spots.

Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Isolated light showers are expected by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the front, though showers look to be relegated to the high terrain. Front begins to move into the forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 5 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches is generally expected elsewhere. Minor travel inconveniences should be expected, especially during the morning commute Thursday across northern Nevada, based on the timing of the front. Though given that this is a spring season storm and sub-surface soil temperatures are relatively warm. Any slush ups or snow that sticks to the road will do so under heavier snowfall rates. Winds shift northwesterly post frontal and remain breezy.

Dry weather expected Friday with lighter winds as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes, especially Sunday afternoon with notably stronger southwesterly gusts present ahead of the next upper level low and dynamic surface cold front that are still expected to move into the forecast area Monday from the west. This looks to bring additional rain and snow to the region along with continued elevated winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a cold front moving thru the forecast area Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Continued high confidence in this weekends weather becoming moderate in regard to the next weather event and cold front passage in the Monday time frame. Significant change to NBM PoP and weather grids this afternoon with the NBM coming in much too early with regard to the weather event Wednesday. Utilized various model blends and WPC guidance. NBM also coming in much lower than previous with snow amount. Manually edited to maintain the snow amount forecast previously which is in line with latest model diagnostics and ensemble model forecast snow amounts. Maintained NBM forecast elsewhere.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight and thru the day Wednesday. Breezes across northern NEvada will ease this evening, though southwesterly winds will become strong on Wednesday ahead of a strong surface cold front that will move thru the forecast area from the northwest beginning Wednesday night. Widespread wind gusts 25KT to 30KT or more will be present at all terminals.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ030.