textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions in parts of north-central Nevada Sunday afternoon

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Eastern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening

* Showers likely in East Central Nevada Monday

* Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strengthening ULT over the west coast will develop a low pressure center this evening over central CA that will migrate east into southern NV by Monday morning. This will place eastern NV in its downstream and bisect the area with northerly flow to the west and southerly flow to the east. Sunday evening sufficient moisture over northwestern NV will initiate shower activity over western Humboldt County that will push eastward through Sunday night. Trace to 0.05 inches of rainfall are expected with overnight activity.

Moisture advection mostly over UT with some spillover into eastern NV will be the catalyst for Monday PM showers and isolated storm activity. Dynamic forcing associated with the LPC accompanied by PVA in the downstream of the trough will initiate activity over central and east-central NV Monday morning. Current guidance keeps precipitation chances confined to higher elevations of northeastern Nye and southern White Pine County. Rainfall amounts over peaks and ridges is forecast to be in the 0.1-0.3 inch range through Monday night. The low treks eastward by Tuesday placing the area in its eastern (PFR) flank. By Wednesday ridging will building into the southwestern CONUS and bring a potentially prolonged period of dry weather to the Great Basin. Under ridging a gradual warming trend will take place through mid to late week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for elevated fire weather conditions through Sunday evening. Low confidence remains for shower and thunderstorms activity on Monday. Pops and Wx grids did a phenomenal job of showcasing the ineptitude of the NBM Sunday afternoon where northwestern NV had a void of shower activity only in our CWA. SST and SerpISC were utilized to reintroduce Pops and shower activity back into western Humboldt County from 18Z through 00Z this afternoon. Moderate confidence exists in a warming trend later this week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. West-northwesterly wind gusts at KWMC and KBAM Sunday afternoon will range 20-22KTs. South-southwesterly wind gusts at KTPH, KEKO, KELY, and KENV will range 18-25KTs. VCSH will gradually push west to east for KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO Sunday night into Monday. Showers will end for KWMC and KBAM by midday Monday but will continue at KEKO through the afternoon. Monday afternoon northerly wind gusts at KTPH will range 20-22KTs.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns for dry, windy conditions for fire weather zones 425/426/427/469/470 where sustained southerly winds of 25-28 mph and gusts near 35 mph are collocated with minimum relative humidity values of 10-15% through early Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of fire weather zones 425/469/470 Monday. Isolated storm activity will be more dry than wet with only higher elevations receiving rainfall.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.