textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few degrees cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s

* Increasing clouds today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly northeastern and east-central NV

* Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Sunday due to gusty winds and low humidity, strongest winds on Saturday

* Much cooler this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mid-level moisture in combination with weak instability will result in afternoon and early evening cumulus build-ups across mainly central and eastern portions of the CWA today where there is a 20% chance of thunderstorms. The western half of the CWA will have a 5 to 10% chance of thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms into this evening will be mainly confined to eastern Elko and White Pine counties. An upper level low currently near the Gulf of Alaska is projected to drift SE along the Canadian coastline over the coming days. The result of which will be increasingly stronger afternoon and early evening winds across northern and central NV. Strongest winds are expected on Saturday when there will be a 30-60% chance of advisory level (>45mph) wind gusts across much of northern and central NV. Much cooler temperatures are expected this weekend as the upper level low centers across the intermountain west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in above normal temperatures through Thursday. Low confidence in shower and thunderstorm activity today. Moderate to high confidence in stronger winds later this week, with strongest winds Saturday. Slight deviation upward for thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening over what the NBM suggested.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected at all forecast terminals today and tonight. Mostly clear early this morning becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a 20% chance of thunderstorms for KEKO, KENV and KELY this afternoon, with around a 10% chance at KBAM and 5% for KWMC and KTPH. Winds gusts from any thunderstorm outflow boundaries could reach 45 mph. Otherwise, W-SW winds this afternoon and early evening in the 10 to 20 knot range with gusts of 20 to 30 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Mostly sunny early this morning with building clouds late morning and afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of northeastern and east-central NV this afternoon. Best chances (10-20%) of thunderstorms will be across zones 469, 470 and 425, however there is a 10% chance of dry thunderstorms across the eastern portions of zones 426 and 427 this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish from west to east by this evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering across mainly zones 470 and 425 into the mid-evening hours.

A storm system approaching the region later this week will result in stronger afternoon and evening winds across all zones both Friday and Saturday. Humidities are expected to rise across much of northern NV with the incoming system. Areas of concern Friday will be mainly zones 470 425 427 and eastern 426 where gusty winds and low RHs are expected. Strongest winds are still expected Saturday afternoon, with RHs near or below 15% across zones 425, 426, 427 and the southern half of 470. At this time a fire weather watch for Friday remains in effect for all zones except 437. Whether or not to remove any zones will be addressed this afternoon, along with more attention to potential critical wind/RH conditions for Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470