textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week

* Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend begins today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Monsoonal flow will continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the Silver State through the middle of next week. Models show a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm modes at this time favor wet storm modes for central and eastern Nevada. However, for western Nevada from about Battle Mountain and points west, there will still be a chance for a few dry thunderstorms, or for storms that have very little in the way of accumulating precipitation. Common hazard for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Will need to watch central Nevada burn scars as recent fires an hydrophobic soils may lead to flash flooding concerns if cells are slower moving. After Wednesday, models show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west and shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction, thus cutting off moisture flow by Thursday of next week. There may be a low chance for thunder on Thursday and Friday depending on how much residue moisture can stick around. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s, or cooler if you see a thundershower. Overnight lows will be dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s giving a nice break from the recent heat. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Wednesday. There is low to medium confidence of upper pattern evolution after Wednesday as models show a weakening of the monsoon flow as the upper level ridge returns to the west bringing warmer temperatures.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will be possible during afternoon and evening hours as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Southerly flow will keep monsoonal moisture over the region through Wednesday of next week. This moisture will keep a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Hazards from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. For Western Nevada there will be a higher chance for a few dry thunderstorms each day as mid level moisture here wont be as deep as locations farther east which may keep Fire weather concerns elevated for a time during the afternoons before storm mature. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Temperature will be on a cooling trend through Wednesday as well with high in the low 80s to low 90s. High Pressure looks to build back west Thursday and Friday bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures for the end of next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.