textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture remains over much of the area through the balance of the week.

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* A marginal risk of excessive rainfall continues across portions of eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* Temperatures will generally run near normal with warming by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

For today, the upper ridge circulation is forecast to be across eastern Utah and Wyoming. The latest model runs continue to keep a fairly moist airmass across portions of the eastern forecast area with precipitable water values of three-quarters to nine- tenths of an inch. Climatologically, this continues to be on the high side. In addition, surface based CAPE forecast continues to be robust with values of 350 to 800 J/kg. 700-500mb storm motions will be a little higher at 10 to 15 knots. Even so, there could be localized moderate rain across portions of Elko and White Pine counties. Hi- res guidance begins firing storms by 11 am to the noon timeframe. Winds will generally be light except for highly localized breezes and gusts in stronger thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Convective activity is expected to wane during the early overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Little movement in the medium-range guidance in regards to the upper level ridge with the center of circulation remains across Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow across the forecast area is expected to remain weak through the weekend, keeping a rather moist environment over the region. Guidance has lowered precipitable water anomalies in western Nevada (Humboldt County) which is lowering confidence in thunderstorm threat in this area through the rest of the week. Will need to maintain a vigilant watch for heavy rain and flooding due to storms that form over the same area and drop rain. Highs through this timeframe will be in the 90s, though no triple digits are yet in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Changes were made to expand the convective activity slightly westward today. Confidence remains high with respect in the short term forecast with wet thunderstorms favored each afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties especially up to the weekend. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential through the end of the week. Long range ensemble cluster solutions continue to bring a longwave trough into the Pacific Northwest Sunday into early next week, but disagreement exists in how amplified it remains in regards to wind impacts to our region. Should it remain more amplified in the less likely scenario, stronger winds would be favored into early next week.

AVIATION

VFR through the TAF period with breezy southwest winds with gusts 15 to 20 kt, especially at WMC and TPH after 18Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms once again after 18Z at EKO, ENV, and ELY, with the a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms with brief and erratic wind gusts. Thunderstorm chances and winds should wane after 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Anomalously high atmospheric moisture content continues, though reduced from Wednesday as drier air is beginning to work its way into zones 437. 438, and 424. 20-30% chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms accompanied by brief heavy rainfall once again across eastern Nevada. Strong wind gusts will also be a possibility with stronger thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms across zone 469 may trend on the drier side but opted to hold off on any fire products give recent rains the past few days. Will need to monitor this area should thunderstorms trend drier here this afternoon.

Wet thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend and into Monday across zones 470 and 425 as monsoonal moisture stream continues, though not as strong as into Utah.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.