textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and breezy conditions over central and northern Nevada lasting through Thursday afternoon.

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper level trough systems.

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly sunny across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Winds are light across the forecast area with temperatures in the 50s. Look for a few high clouds moving into the area during the overnight with lows in the 20s and 30s.

The west-southwest flow over the forecast area will continue for tomorrow. An upper level low pressure system will shift southward and over the Pacific Northwest states. Winds are projected to be on the breezy side across central Nevada with south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. A weak impulse in the flow is expected to move through central and then northeastern Nevada Thursday afternoon with a few light showers over the mountains in northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s. Light showers are expected to develop during the early morning hours Friday with plenty of clouds and lows in the 30s and 40s.

For Friday through the upcoming weekend, models continue to portray a rather complex upper level trough setup. This will start out with the aforementioned large parent longwave trough digging south along the wast coast. Through the period, models are continuing to suggest several distinct areas of circulation, from as far north as British Columbia, Canada south to Baja California. These features will act as a focal point for the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the latter portions of the weekend for northern and central Nevada. For Friday through Sunday. These disturbances will bring several rounds of isolated to scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall through Monday morning. With this system still well offshore, models will continue to be highly variable form run to run. Current multi-day precipitation amounts look to be about a tenth to a half-inch of rain for valley locations, with a half-inch to an inch of water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 7000 feet by Sunday. Snow amounts are coming in with a trace to a half-inch possible for the higher elevation passes and summits, and six to twelve inches of snow for the highest elevation peaks. To be fair, there is still a lot of unknowns with this system, the first being is how are all of the vorticity centers portrayed in model solutions will interact with each other. The second unknown will be the strength of these centers.

For the early portions of next week, beginning Monday and Tuesday high pressure will build in as the trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region. Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the nest week, as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the short term NBM grids. Confidence remains high in quiet across the area with breezy conditions over central Nevada for Thursday afternoon. South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are possible.

There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms starting late Thursday afternoon/evening, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging next Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring quiet and dry conditions to the region.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions for all terminals through Thursday morning. Upper level system passing to the north will increase central terminals winds W10-15G25KT through the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions are not anticipated through Friday with southerly flow remaining below criteria. A weather system is set to impact the region beginning Friday with cloud cover and precipitation chances increasing for fire weather zones 425/426/427/469/470. Showers and isolated storm activity is expected to continue through the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.