textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

* Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected during the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

Fair weather returns to NE Nevada as an upper level ridge builds offshore of California, and a long wave trough continues to reside over the northern plains. This pattern keeps NE Nevada under WNW flow aloft, which for us is normally a dry pattern, and this week is no exception. The main factor will be occasional shortwave troughs transiting the westerly flow over Canada and dropping into the northern Rockies. These system will act to tighten the pressure gradient over NV leading to breezy westerly to WNW winds during the afternoon. This pattern will keep winds elevated Wednesday afternoon with W-NW winds of 15 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH continuing. Thursday through next Tuesday The ridge will build slowly eastward, with heights slowly rising during the week. This will cause the pressure gradient to relax some allowing for wind speeds to drop during the afternoons to 10 MPH to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible generally out of the west. Another factor will be a slow warm-up of temperatures this week into the weekend. High temperatures look to warm from the mid 70s to mid 80s Wednesday, back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend. Overnight lows will also warm, from the low 30s to low 50s Thursday morning, rising back into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Sunday morning. Models are hinting at developing a shortwave upper trough somewhere over the NW US late Sunday into Monday of next week. Models have wavered on the location of this trough with little to no run to run consistency in either the GFS or ECMWF ensembles, and the latest is no exception, although both seem to like central Idaho this evening. Still even with the proximity of this trough, both keep NV dry while only elevating winds across the northern tier of the silver state.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through next weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday. Winds will remain breezy out of the W-NW during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts to 25KT to 35KT. Localized areas of BLDU for northern and central NV terminals possible through 03Z Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as a Winds will remain breezy Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds offshore of California, and the upper trough resides over the high plains. This will place NV in between these two features, under WNW flow aloft. This pattern will keep winds breezy Wednesday, but after Thursday the ridge will build east, allowing for the westerly winds relax a bit during the afternoons, to 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible. However, this will be offset by dry conditions, and warming temperatures peeking in the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.