textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record heat in most of northern and central Nevada each afternoon through Sunday.

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for heat-sensitive groups each afternoon through Sunday.

* Above normal temperatures will persist into at least the middle of next week.

* Smoke from area wildfires to lead to reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues over northern Nevada today.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Little change in the forecast through the weekend and into next week as high pressure remains dominant across the Desert Southwest, which keeps monsoonal moisture shunted south of much of the Great Basin. A shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Plains Sunday into Monday, leading to stronger afternoon wind gusts across northern Nevada with gusts from 25 to 30 mph Saturday and Sunday afternoons. With minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits, elevated to localized critical fire weather condtions will develop across areas north of I-80 Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons.

The other story will be the continued heat across northern and central Nevada with moderate to major HeatRisk values for max afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, especially in valleys. Saturday will feature the hottest high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across most of the Great Basin. This will not only lead to heat-related illness concerns for the elderly and those susceptible to the heat, but to anyone who spends time outdoors, especially in the sun. Consider postponing outdoor activities until the morning or late evening. Drink plenty of fluids, wear loose-fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks if you must be outdoors. Heat Advisories are likely to continue for portions of the area into early next week, though a slight reprieve arrives on Sunday across northern Nevada as a weak "cold" front drops south out of Oregon and Idaho with the aforementioned shortwave trough that moves across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited with this so no thunderstorm activity is expected.

Here are the probabilities for highs to top the century mark on Saturday:

Battle Mountain - 90% Carlin - 85% Elko - 85% Winnemucca - 85% West Wendover - 85% Wells - 90% Spring Creek - 75% Tonopah - 65% Eureka - 70% Ely - 35%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in hot and dry weather continuing through the weekend and into the early part of next week. High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for heat-sensitive groups each afternoon through Sunday. High forecast confidence in above normal temperatures persisting into at least the middle of next week. Medium confidence in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across northern Nevada during the afternoon periods Saturday through Monday with timing of strongest wind gusts coinciding with minimum RH values remaining more uncertain.

AVIATION

Breezy southwest winds at most terminals today from 5 to 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 18 kt. Hazy skies with area wildfire smoke lingering. Winds light and variable tonight. No precipitation is expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Mostly sunny and storm-free through the weekend with hot and dry conditions persisting. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across all fire zones. West-northwest winds increase Saturday afternoon across zone 437 and the northern portions of zones 438, 469, and 470 with low RH below 10 percent for elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions. Winds increase into Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front drops southward from Idaho. North-northwesterly winds gusting from 25 to 30 mph, with confidence greatest for 30 mph wind gusts across northern zone 470 (90% chance). This combined with low RH below 10 percent will lead to continued elevated fire weather conditions. Similar conditions look to persist across zones 438, 469, and 470 with breezy afternoon winds for elevated fire weather conditions. RH recoveries mostly in the 20s across central Nevada and 30s across aforementioned northern Nevada fire zones.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-033-035>039.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday NVZ031-033>041.