textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Eastern Nevada starting Monday

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong upper level high pressure center is setting up over the Plains and is expected to funnel monsoonal moisture into the Southwest for at least the next several days. Moisture is already surging into the state as scattered shower activity over western and northwestern NV can be seen on satellite and radar early Monday morning. Expectation is for showers and convective activity to spread slowly from south to north today, with storm activity being a mix of wet and dry. Moisture continues its northward advection into northern Nevada by Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. By Tuesday, precipitable water values are expected to be 200% to 250% of standard, and the most widespread shower coverage of the forecast is expected as a result.

A somewhat drier air mass is expected to enter Nevada from the west for Wednesday through Friday, but it will still be anomalously wet and capable of supporting showers, especially in eastern Nevada. Given both the excessive atmospheric moisture available and the potential for showers to impact the same areas day after day, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is in place for Tuesday through Thursday. Atmospheric moisture and associated storm potential is currently expected to restrengthen for the weekend, but model variance regarding upper level steering flow means the location of the strongest moisture is still in flux.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in monsoonal moisture this week, but moderate confidence in showers as described above. Moderate confidence in excessive rainfall potential Tuesday through Thursday. No changes were made to base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through early Tuesday morning. Afternoon wind gusts at KWMC, KBAM, KELY, and KTPH will range 18-22KTs. -TSRA is possible at KELY Monday afternoon and evening. CIGs and VIS will be intermittently reduced in and around TS activity leading to momentary MVFR and IFR conditions. Winds in and around TS activity will be briefly gusty and erratic.

FIRE WEATHER

Beginning Monday monsoonal moisture will work its way up into central and northern NV and be in place through this week. Monday there exists potential for dry thunderstorms across fire weather zones 437/424/438/469/470, while fire weather zones 425/426/427 will see more of a mix of wet and dry storm activity. By Tuesday the risk of mainly dry storms diminishes greatly as a big push of moisture reaches northern NV. This setup looks to be in place through at least Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033.