textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture remains over much of the area through the balance of the week.

* Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms over eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* A marginal risk of excessive rainfall continues across portions of eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday

* Temperatures will generally run near normal with warming by the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A fairly active day was had by much of the forecast area as the moist air mass provided an effective environment for wet storms. Storms that went straight over remote observation platforms were able to drop a quick quarter to half inch of rain in an hour, with possibly more had by storms in Lander and Elko counties. The activity is expected to continue into the evening with lows in the 50s and 60s.

For Thursday, the upper ridge circulation is forecast to be across eastern Utah and Wyoming. The latest model runs continue to keep a fairly moist airmass across portions of the eastern forecast area with precipitable water values of three-quarters to nine-tenths of an inch. Climatologically, this continues to be on the high side. In addition, surface based CAPE forecast continues to be robust with values of 350 to 800 J/kg. 700-500mb storm motions will be a little higher at 10 to 15 knots. Even so, there could be localized moderate rain across portions of Elko and White Pine counties. Hi- res guidance begins firing storms by 11 am to the noon timeframe. Winds will generally be light except for highly localized breezes and gusts in stronger thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Convective activity is expected to wane during the early overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Model simulations continue to show not much movement with respect to the upper level ridge as the center of circulation remains across Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow across the forecast area is expected to remain weak through the weekend, keeping a rather moist environment over the region. Will need to maintain a vigilant watch for heavy rain and flooding due to storms that form over the same area and drop rain. Highs through this timeframe will be in the 90s, though no triple digits are yet in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were made to expand convective activity slightly westward for tomorrow. Confidence remains high with respect in the short term forecast with wet thunderstorms favored each afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties especially up to the weekend. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential through the end of the week. Long range ensemble cluster solutions start to bring a longwave trough into the Pacific Northwest Sunday into early next week, but disagreement exists in how amplified it remains in regards to wind impacts to our region. Should it remain more amplified in the less likely scenario, stronger winds would be favored into early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions favored through the TAF period with light and variable winds 10 kt or less. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals except KTPH and KWMC through the early evening with localized brief gusty and erratic winds. For tomorrow, best chances for thunderstorm develop and impacts are across the eastern terminals KEKO-ELY-KENV after 19Z.

FIRE WEATHER

A fairly moist atmosphere continues to reside across much of the region, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. These features have the potential of putting down wetting rains as storm motions are between 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. The moisture is expected to remain in place through the rest of the week, especially across central and northeast Nevada. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon across this area through Saturday with localized, brief moderate to heavy rainfall at times. Drier air will try to move east across fire zone 437 Thursday afternoon with breezy southwest gusts to 25 mph, bringing elevated fire weather conditions to this area.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.