textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry conditions with light winds for Monday and Tuesday

* Light Valley rain showers, and mountain snow for central Nevada Wednesday

* Dry conditions with a slow warming trend possible Thursday and Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level trough which has provided the much needed rainfall over the last few days has finally departed for points east. As the upper trough departs, high pressure will build bringing quieter weather back into the region. However, with the quieter weather, light winds, and clearing skies will need to watch out for fog and freezing fog in the morning for the valleys given the now very moist ground around the state this ridge will transit the state through Tuesday. Wednesday, the next upper trough is expected to move through Nevada, with central Nevada seeing the greatest potential for precipitation. Wednesdays system will be moisture starved with only light accumulations possible, as the US-50 corridor could see up to 0.15 of rain with up to 2 of snow for the mountains. Thursday will be another quiet day weather wise with models bringing another trough through for Friday morning, although this trough looks to bring only clouds. For next weekend Models are not in agreement with the pattern, giving a low confidence forecast past Friday as there is equal potential for an upper ridge, upper troughing, or a mixed flow regime. Temperature wise for the holiday weekend and into next week thanks to the active pattern will be relatively consistent next week through Thursday as highs will be near to, to slightly below normal ranging in the mid 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s. After Thursday there is the potential for a slow warming trend with highs rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in upper ridge transiting the great basin Monday and Tuesday which will bring dry conditions and light winds.

There is medium confidence for an upper level trough passage Wednesday, with low chances for light valley rainfall and mountain snow for central Nevada. There is low to low confidence of upper pattern evolution after Friday as models show varied upper air pattern with either troughing or ridging taking place.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday morning. Winds will be light Monday and Tuesday with Variable to NW winds of 5KT to 10 KT. Vicinity fog or freezing fog will be possible for all terminals during the early morning hours due to very moist ground, light to calm winds, and cool temperatures. Should fog/freezing fog affect a terminal flight conditions could drop to IFR to even LIFR levels with VIS less than mile possible between 08Z and 16Z each morning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.