textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage today, lasting into the weekend. Excessive rainfall is possible over eastern NV Friday afternoon and evening

* Isolated strong thunderstorms on Saturday could produce damaging winds and hail

* Temperatures will begin cooling tomorrow and Saturday with readings below to near normal

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Moisture from the remnants of TS Iselle is streaming into the region today helping drive PW values up to an inch plus. Light reflectivity and cloud cover on satellite and radar is being observed ahead of an anticipated bigger push of precipitation over the area Friday afternoon. WPC has placed a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall over most of the region today, excluding far western Humboldt and southern White Pine Counties. 0.1-0.25 inches of rainfall is possible over much of the area with higher rain rates possible late Friday afternoon and evening. Higher rates increase the risk of debris flows and localized flash flooding over recent wildfire burn scars in the area.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain through Friday night. The severe potential increases on Saturday though spatial coverage of active weather decreases slightly. SPC has added a slight risk over eastern NV for wind gusts greater than 57 mph and 1 inch or better hail. This is in response to robust CAPE (500+ J/kg), bulk shear, and helicity values across east central NV. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall over eastern NV for Saturday could lead to additional rain accumulations reaching half an inch for a 2 day total.

The HPC responsible for the recent monsoonal push slides eastward on Sunday keeping moisture availability restricted to the eastern edge of the state over the NV/UT border. With the high to the east the weather pattern will be dominated by the storm track over the western CONUS mainly to the north of the region. Seasonally average temperatures are forecast to continue into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence remains in shower and thunderstorm activity through Friday and Saturday. Low confidence exists in precipitation amounts associated with precipitation this weekend. NBM surprisingly had adequate representation of thunderstorm activity for Friday afternoon. No major grid changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

SH and TS activity at all terminals will limit flight rules to MVFR/IFR conditions intermittently through Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally be west-southwesterly and light at all terminals today. Winds in and around TS activity will be gusty and erratic.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across all fire zones are expected to last into the evening hours with increasing chances for heavy rainfall with potential for localized flooding and debris flows, especially over recently burned areas. By the evening, thunderstorms will transition to more widespread scattered showers over all zones. Tomorrow, chances for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms continue for the afternoon.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.