textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions across Northern Nevada today.

* Near-record heat continues this afternoon, with a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses for heat-sensitive groups.

* Unseasonably high temperatures will remain in place through next weekend. Heat related headline products may be needed by mid- week.

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are sunny across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Satellite imagery is showing plentiful smoke from area wildfires across much of the area. The smoke is producing reduced visibility in spots along with reduced air quality. There is not much in the way of moisture and we will be expecting another night of quiet weather with lows in the 50s.

Not much change in the pattern is expected as we start the new work week. Upper level ridging will be centered across Arizona while an upper trough continues its eastward progression over southern Canada. Afternoon breezes will once again develop tomorrow with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. It will be a little bit cooler with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Smoke will be prevalent in a majority of locations due to the ongoing wildfires. It will be a calm and cool overnight period with no precipitation expected and lows in the 50s.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper level ridge is expected to undergo a period of strengthening while moving slowly westward. This will bring a slow warmup to the area. Though high temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with readings in the mid to upper 90s, by Wednesday and Thursday, highs will once again climb back into the triple digits for many locations. Heat related products may be required as HeatRisk indices climb to moderate to major. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 100 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Thursday:

Austin 0% Battle Mountain 85% Elko 80% Ely 0% Eureka 0% Jackpot 25% Jarbidge 0% Owyhee 55% Ruth 0% Spring Creek 60% Tonopah 0% Wells 70% West Wendover 75% Wildhorse Res 5% Winnemucca 80%

There will be some afternoon breezes each day, but nothing too strong is expected. Overnight lows each night will be in the 50s to even the 60s in the warmer locales.

By Friday and Saturday, all models are showing the upper ridge circulation across southern Nevada and Utah. At this time, both Thursday and Friday afternoons appear to be the warmest with Friday's readings in the upper 90s to mid 100s. A weak push of mid-level moisture may bring some very high-based cumulus to portions of central Nevada, along with an isolated dry thunderstorm to central Nevada. Afternoon breezes continue with gusts to 20 mph possible. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 100 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Friday:

Austin 2% Battle Mountain 99% Elko 95% Ely 0% Eureka 0% Jackpot 35% Jarbidge 0% Owyhee 65% Ruth 0% Spring Creek 80% Tonopah 0% Wells 90% West Wendover 95% Wildhorse Res 5% Winnemucca 90%

Look for dry conditions Friday night with lows in the 50s and 60s. The upper ridge circulation will shift east for Saturday with a continuation of the mid-level moisture creep, leading to a few more isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada. Highs will be a degree or two cooler, but will still be hot with readings in the 90s and 100s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high with respect to the upper ridge through the period. Moderate to high confidence exists with temperatures warming back to the triple digits by the middle portions of the week. Confidence is very low on the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms Friday and Saturday in central Nevada. Only minor changes to the wind fields were made in the near term NBM forecast.

AVIATION

Smoke from regional wildfires will result in periods of hazy skies. KELY may see the VIS drop to 6SM or lower through this evening due to smoke from a nearby wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue under mostly clear/mostly sunny skies. Breezy conditions expected through the early evening with gusts of 15 to 25 knots Breezes expected to continue over the KWMC terminal. Expect another round of afternoon breezes tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

A combination of RH values near 10% and sustained northerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-33 mph has prompted a Red Flag Warning for FWZ 470 until 11PM Sunday evening. Winds are lighter over all fire zones this week under high pressure. No shower or thunderstorm activity is expected through mid week. Extreme heat will continue on Wednesday. Looking ahead to the end of this week, the upper level ridge is forecast to move to the west, setting up shop somewhere across the southwestern United States. Mid-level moisture is anticipated to creep slowly around the southern and western periphery of the upper ridge by Friday and Saturday, which could lead to isolated dry thunderstorms over the central fire zones of 425, 426, and 427. At this time, confidence is very low but the scenario bears watching given the potential fire weather impacts considering the very hot weather the area has been experiencing.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for NVZ470.