textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy conditions mainly across central Nevada this afternoon and early evening * At or just below average temperatures will continue through the next several days

* Periods of rain showers late this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low centered along the central Oregon coastline early this morning will keep a southwesterly flow aloft across Nevada. The main impacts this afternoon and early evening from the approaching system will be gusty southerly winds for most of central and portions of northeastern NV. Strongest winds today are expected across White Pine County where southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph are likely. Higher terrain can expect slightly higher wind speeds. Dry and storm-free conditions are expected across the CWA today, along with slightly below temperatures. The upper level low to our NW will weaken tonight into Sunday as it moves onshore through southern Oregon and northern California, with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Sunday afternoon and early evening. A few light rain showers mainly over mountain areas Sunday night as the upper level low weakens into a trough and exits east through Idaho. Dry conditions are expected across the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through next weekend there will be increasing chances of precipitation as trough energy approaches from the Pacific NW, while at the same time remnants of what is currently hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific Ocean well offshore of Baja Mexico, begins to feed additional moisture up into the southwestern US through CA and likely into NV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in cool temperatures and gusty winds through the weekend. Low confidence in storm potential next week. No changes were made from the NBM forecast.

AVIATION

Dry with VFR conditions expected at all TAF terminals today and tonight. Southerly winds of 10-20 knots gusting 25-30 knots are expected across much of central and portions of NE Nevada this afternoon, including KTPH and KELY where there is a potential for blowing dust and visibility restrictions to MVFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Breezy conditions will develop across much of east-central NV this afternoon and early evening resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Zones 425-427 can expect sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with minimum relative humidity values hovering at or just above critical thresholds in most locations. Dry conditions are expected across all zones today, with light rain showers to portions of northern and central Nevada Sunday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.