textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair and cool weather in place for today

* Slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow across Northern Nevada Monday and Monday night

* Fair yet cool weather returns thru mid week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Weather will be fair yet cool across the forecast area today and tonight with high level clouds increasing from the west. Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s.

A modest Pacific low pressure system moving into the PacNW early Monday morning will drag a weak cold front thru Northern Nevada from the west-northwest during the day Monday. This will produce isolated light valley rain showers and mountain show showers across much of northern Nevada, though the best chance for any activity will be north of the I-80 corridor. Significant accumulation is not expected under any showers with a tenth of an inch or less forecast. West-southwesterly winds will also become breezy Monday with widespread gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds shift west-northwesterly Monday night while concurrently easing.

Generally zonal flow will be present over Nevada beginning Tuesday, eventually shifting to southwesterly by Thursday as a deep upper level trof takes shape off the coast of the western U.S. Weather thru mid week will be generally fair yet cool, residing near to a few degrees cooler than seasonal. Light winds on Tuesday will gradually increase each day thru Thursday in response to the deepening upper level trof offshore. By the Thursday night/Friday time frame, numerical model solutions depict the beginning of a period of unsettled weather, including increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes. Model solutions depict the upper level trof progressing thru Nevada from the west Sunday/Sunday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of valley rain and mountain snow across Northern Nevada Monday thru Monday night. Low forecast confidence pertaining to active weather at the end of the week and next weekend. Utilized various model blends for PoP and weather fields.

AVIATION

Still maintaining some concern for VCFG at KBAM, KEKO, and KELY early this morning, thru approximately 16Z. Though decreasing confidence has led to the omission of VCFG from the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals thru tonight under increasing high level clouds from the west.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and fair weather under a modest warming trend continues thru today and into Monday. Light valley rain and mountain snow showers are expected across portions of northern Nevada on Monday and Monday night as a modest cold front moves thru the PacNW and northern Nevada. The best opportunity for any shower activity will be north of the I-80 corridor. Though any precipitaton that falls looks to remain less than 0.10 inches and wetting rains are not expected. Also anticipating west-southwesterly breezes along the cold front with gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds then shift west-northwesterly Monday night while concurrently easing. Fair weather returns thru mid week with winds gradually increasing each day Tuesday thru Thursday as a robust upper level trof deepens offshore of the west coast. Unsettled weather, including increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes, returns in the Thursday night/Friday time frame. Model solutions depict the upper level trof progressing thru Nevada from the west Sunday/Sunday night.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.