textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated dry thunderstorms possible in western Nevada and northwestern Elko County this afternoon into the evening

* Another round of thunderstorms possible across central and northeastern Nevada Monday afternoon

* Above normal temperatures this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A southerly flow aloft from an upper level trough over the western U.S. and high pressure ridge over the four corners has pushed in some mid-level moisture over Nevada. This will increase the chance for some isolated thunderstorms over western Nevada and Northwestern Elko county this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to be dry despite atmospheric moisture reaching up to 0.9 inches, due to moisture levels at much higher elevations and surface levels really dry and warm. Probability for active dry thunderstorms remain low for central portions of western Nevada, with higher probabilities this evening over Humboldt County as the stormfront moves north. Winds expected to be light, however any thunderstorms could produce outflow gusts up to 50 mph. High temperatures in the 90s.

Tomorrow, chances for active thunderstorms in the afternoon again as mid-level moisture still situated over Nevada with an increase in CAPE values across much of central to northeastern Nevada. Again, due to the increase in moisture staying at higher elevations and surface levels staying warm and dry, much of the thunderstorms are expected to be dry with a low probability of becoming a mix of wet/dry by the evening. The ongoing activity with increase in cloud cover will help bring temperatures down a bit but relatively stay in the low 90s. Winds generally light with some southwesterly breezes, however thunderstorm outflow gusts could reach up to 50 mph.

Tuesday, the weather pattern is starting to stretch out to a more northwesterly flow as both the upper trough and four corners high begin to weaken. Much of Nevada is expected to dry out with quieter weather, however there is still chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon over Elko County as CAPE values increase in the ranges of 150-200 J/kg with some residual mid-level moisture overhead. By the evening, storms expected to dissipate, leaving quiet dry conditions. High temperatures expected to warm back up into the mid 90s.

Rest of the week, warming temperature trend each day as highs warm into the upper 90s with the potential of seeing triple digits by the end of the week across the region. As of now, there is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for Friday and Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence for dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across western Nevada. Made changes to the grids to better reflect the active weather pattern impacting central and northern Nevada today and tomorrow. Moderate confidence for active dry thunderstorms tomorrow across central and northeastern Nevada, as well as dry thunderstorms over Elko County Tuesday. High confidence of warming temperatures through next week with moderate confidence of heat related risks by the weekend.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Increase in mid-level moisture with some moderate CAPE will increase the potential for some isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly across the western portions. Latest model runs showing increase in probabilities for VCTS near KWMC, and KBAM this afternoon. Although confidence is low, VCTS is also added in the TAFS for KTPH as recent model runs show increase in probability for active storms just to the north. By the evening, chances also increase for VCTS over KEKO. By late evening into the early morning hours, storms expected to dissipate. Winds expected to be generally light, however any thunderstorms may cause gusty outflow winds reaching up to 50 kts. Tomorrow, chances for more active thunderstorms across the region with highest chances over KEKO by the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms in the afternoons are the main fire weather threat today through Tuesday. This afternoon, dry thunderstorms expected over western Nevada affecting zone 437 and western portions of 424 and 427 this afternoon. By the evening active dry thunderstorms still expected over 437 and extending into zone 438, which will dissipate before midnight. Temperatures continue to be above normal. Winds expected to not reach criteria however thunderstorms could produce outflow winds gusts up to 50 mph. Tomorrow, chances for dry thunderstorms in the afternoon will be more spread out affecting zones 424, 427, and 437 as well as extending into 438, 469, 470 and parts of 425.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.