textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A wind advisory is in effect for east-central Nevada. Winds will be strongest late this evening through 5 AM Monday.

* A flood watch remains in effect for White Pine, northern Nye, southern Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties through Monday morning due to a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

* Most locations across northeastern and central Nevada are projected to receive between a half inch and one inch of rainfall now through Monday morning. Higher amounts are possible.

* Monday night into Tuesday morning snow levels lower to around 5500 feet across the region with many summits and valleys expected to receive between a trace and a half inch of snow. * Dry Wednesday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: What remains of Hurricane Rachel continues to bring rain to the Great Basin. Accumulation so far has been mainly limited to White Pine County, Eastern Elko County and Northeastern Nye County, but additional development further west is expected this afternoon. Reported totals so far range from a quarter to a half inch in southeastern Elko to an inch and a half in the higher elevations of White Pine. By midnight, continuing rainfall is expected to produce another quarter to half inch in western Elko, northwestern Nye, and Lander and Eureka counties, and up to another inch for eastern Elko, northeastern Nye, and White Pine counties. A flood watch remains in effect for much of the forecast area until 5 am PDT tomorrow as a result of this continued rainfall. The upper low that absorbed Rachel and its moisture will sit atop the Great Basin through Tuesday, keeping showers in place and producing yet another half to three quarters inch of precipitation to start the week, some of which may fall as snow as temperatures drop. Most snow will be found at high elevations, however valleys in eastern Nevada could wake up to about a quarter inch of snow on Tuesday. Any valley snow will be short lived as the low exits to the east Tuesday, allowing high temperatures to rise from the low 50s to the upper 60s by Thursday. Tuesday will also be the final day for precipitation, with dry weather and continued warming expected through the end of the forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in continuing showers through Tuesday, with moderate confidence in accumulation totals and snowfall potential. Moderate confidence in warming temperatures and dry conditions beyond Tuesday. No changes were made to NBM output.

AVIATION

Widespread showers and a potential thunderstorm or two will impact all sites except KWMC over the next 24 hours. So far these showers have resulted in visibility of 5SM or less and ceilings as low as FL015 at times. The initial wave of showers is expected to lighten between 21-23Z, however a second wave will form around 03Z resulting in continued MVFR/low VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Continued showers are expected to produce additional wetting rains across the majority of zones. Showers will persist in all zones except 437 through Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds up to 30 mph are expected in east-central Nevada this evening.

HYDROLOGY

The combination of upper level low and Hurricane Rachel remnants continues to bring abundant moisture to Northeastern Nevada. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall continue to pose a threat for runoff and debris flow, particularly in areas of steep terrain, poor drainage, or recent fire scars. Recent fire scars include, but are not limited to, the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, Egberts Fire, Antelope Fire, California Creek Fire, and Master Fire. Additional rainfall of half to one inch is expected through early tomorrow morning, with the heaviest rainfall centered on White Pine County. A flood watch remains in effect for much of the forecast area through Monday morning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through late tonight NVZ031-033>035-037>041.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ033-035-040-041.