textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Ridge pattern to close the week with warming temperatures

* Series of weather systems through the Great Basin next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

Currently, we are sitting in between a weak trough to our south, and a weak ridge trying to develop to our north. While both seem to be struggling, model guidance suggests both can fully develop by Friday morning. Between these two features, the area is experiencing an easterly/northeasterly flow. This pattern is accompanied by significantly slower winds in the northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the high, and faster flow in the southern regions, near the low. Residual moisture being trapped by the two systems seems to be keeping the temperatures in check for the moment. Limited positive moisture advection is present when looking at the higher elevations, with a moderate moisture transport moving towards northern Nevada out of the Great Salt Lake. As this is all near the surface, the upper levels will still remain dry from the overlying ridge, allowing us to remain in minimal cloud cover for the next few days. It is for these reasons we will see a gradual warming into pleasant temperatures as we work through the weekend. The highs will be sitting in the 60s and 70s as we move through today, and will increase at very slow rates as we get to Monday. Our lows are currently expected to stay in the low 30s tonight, but if recent trends continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see them land in the mid 30s. Not a major difference, but enough to acknowledge the models are overshooting the lows due to the higher dew points. These lows are expected to increase up to the upper 30s, lower 40s as we get to Sunday before the next pattern sets in.

Next week, we are still expecting a major polar jet to push through, bringing a very deep low, colder temperatures, and precipitation. Who needs wishcasting when you can have this. Long range model guidance is showing a deep low moving off the Pacific Ocean across portions of AZ, CA, and southern NV, which will extend a vorticity maxima line across the state with the passage. The different models are still struggling with timing, but there is an overall trend of moving it later into the forecast period. The GFS currently has the primary passage occurring for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, while the ECMWF is looking more mid-day Thursday into Friday. Precipitation types are still a question, with the biggest concerns being around the surface. We are currently looking at surface temps hovering around freezing. As of right now, the less whimsical option appears more likely, in the surface lows will stay above freezing until after the FROPA and the precipitation has passed. This means widespread rain is in the forecast with potential for snow mostly in the higher elevations. This does not mean that we wont see any snow in the valleys, but the likelihood of just rain is still seeming higher. If one thing is certain, this is not an event to leave town for if you love winter. As we push into this event, the highs are supposed to be in the upper 50s/ low 60s pre-frontal, and in the mid 40s/ low 50s post-frontal. The lows are expected to follow the pattern of upper 30s/ low 40s pre-frontal, and in the mid 30s post-frontal.

Confidence: High confidence for a relatively clear and pleasant weekend. Medium confidence in the polar jet bringing precipitation and cold temperatures. Low confidence in precipitation type and timing of the polar jet.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours. Thursday afternoon, northerly wind gusts ranging from 20-25kts at KTPH/KELY will diminish after sunset. No precipitation is forecasted through Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather remains quiet, with no thunder or humidity concerns and only standard afternoon breezes for winds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.