textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Precipitation and sky cover gradually decreasing throughout Tuesday

* Significantly cold lows Tuesday night

* Warming and drying trend throughout the week

* Next winter system will work into the area as we start next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A mix of wintry precipitation will persist in portions of our eastern counties this morning, as a deep trough is working its way out of our area. This has allowed us to wake up this morning to snow capped mountains, and for some, early season snow capped driveways. As this system continues to work east, gradual clearing will appear throughout the watch area, bringing us back to our seasonably appropriate, dry weather. Highs will start off today around the mid 40s to 50s, before gradually increasing the remainder of the week, with lows well below normal. Lows will range from the upper teens over northern NV to lower 30s further south. The lows for tonight are especially significant, as most of the area will see lows 10-15 degrees below normal, marking the first time this season we have seen these widespread subfreezing temps.

As we progress Thursday into Friday, a ridge will attempt to set up over our area, with a weak subtropical low setting up along the NV, CA, and AZ borders. This will set us up for seasonable weather within the watch area, leaving us with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 50s and 60s, before increasing to the mid 60s to 70s as we enter the very pleasant weekend.

Looking at our next set-up, those of us who greatly enjoy winter weather will be very pleased as a polar jet has the potential of working its way back into our area, replacing the weak blocking low regime. This will contain a deep low bringing a strong cold front through our area early next week, dropping highs back down to the 40s and 50s, and our lows into the 20s and 30s. This front will have the potential to bring precipitation next Monday and Tuesday, but confidence in timing and amounts are low as we are still a full week away.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the general clearing of sky cover and wintry precipitation today. High confidence in dry and warming conditions starting tomorrow. Moderate confidence in temperatures decreasing along the front next week. Low confidence in precipitation types, placement, and timing next week.

AVIATION

Showers will continue to cause lower ceilings for KEKO and KENV for a few more hours. Gusty winds remain a factor for KELY/KTPH/KENV before gradually dying down around 1-3Z. Clearing skies and sub-10KT winds will persist for all sites until at least 17Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Wind speeds and relative humidity values over the next several days will fall well below fire weather criteria. No precipitation or thunderstorm activity exists in the forecast through the end of the week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ034.