textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue across southeastern Nevada today and across eastern Nevada by Monday afternoon.

* A short weather break possible mid-week, followed by more rounds of active weather next weekend.

* Temperatures continue to remain at or below normal for the next couple days.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across southeastern portions of Nevada this afternoon, and across eastern Nevada by tomorrow afternoon, as residual moisture slowly pushes eastward. By mid-week, atmospheric stability will increase for a more calm weather conditions as the high pressure over the Four Corners weakens and moves east, while the low pressure system stays north over southern Canada. Another strong low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will make it's way towards the northwestern CONUS. This will extend into the southwestern CONUS, shifting the patterns to a southwesterly flow across the state with much cooler temperatures moving in. Weather conditions remain dry as PWATs stay below 0.4 inches with some southwesterly afternoon breezes up to 15-20 mph, gusts up to 25-30 mph. High temperatures will be several degrees below normal in the 70s to 80s.

By the weekend, an interesting weather pattern takes shape with models agreeing that the low pressure system to the northwest pushes further south along the Pacific northwest, strengthens, and situates over Oregon and Washington. At the same time, a Pacific tropical storm will move north along Mexico's coastline and into the southwestern US, bringing a surge of tropical moisture into Nevada. As for the timing and position, by the end of the weekend the model discrepancies begin to increase, but with little deviations among them. Both consistently agree on the moisture surge and timing, but slight differentiate on the position. GFS pushes towards Southern California, while ECWMF extends a little further outward off the Coast of California then pushes into northern California. The low pressure to the northwest is also showing some deviations within the models with GFS showing the system weakens and pushes east as the tropical system moves in, while ECMWF pushes further out into the Pacific and merges with the tropical system. These systems will be closely looked at as we approach into the next weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Monday afternoon. VCTS at KELY and KENV through early Sunday evening. Any TS that does occur may create momentary MVFR/IFR condtions over terminals. Sunday afternoon wind gusts are forecast for KELY where southwest winds will gust near 20KTs. Monday afternoon wind gusts at KTPH will gust to near 22KTs out of the south.

FIRE WEATHER

Thunderstorm activity for Sunday will be confined to FWZ425 and the very southern portion of FWZ470. Primary threats will be dangerous lightning, gusty erratic winds that will enhance extreme fire behavior, and localized flooding especially over recent burn scars where debris flows are possible. On Monday storm activity over eastern NV will focus on FWZ 425/438/469/470. This will also include the eastern portions of FWZ 426/427. Primary threats will be the same as those for Sunday. On Tuesday stronger westerly flow over FWZ437 combined with lower RH values will create elevated fire weather concerns in northwest NV.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.