textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant conditions across the area through the rest of the weekend

* Rain showers and thunderstorms forecast across central Nevada Monday night and Tuesday

* A warming trend will bump afternoon high temperatures slightly above normal through Friday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Wraparound showers from an upper level shortwave exiting the Great Basin to the northeast are diminishing across northeastern Elko County this afternoon as evidenced by satellite and radar imagery. Under northwest post frontal flow fair weather conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend in absence of any significant systems over the area.

Another low pressure system off the CA coast will begin to trek eastward late Sunday night into Monday. The LPC will cross CA and enter southern NV by Monday advecting vorticity and sufficient moisture for shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern NV Monday evening and Tuesday. Better agreement for moisture availability exists with the most recent model run amongst long term numerical models. PW values of 0.5-0.7 inches will push northward on the strength of southerly flow in the systems downstream across Eureka, White Pine and Elko Counties on Tuesday. Current guidance has more storm activity across central NV on Tuesday than further north. ECMWF guidance has rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.2 inches across eastern NV while GFS has amounts a little more robust between 0.3 and 0.5 inches.

The system will exit the area on Wednesday riding the flow of its parent trough centered off the western Canadian coast. Brief ridging with an HPC to the south over western AZ will set up over the SW CONUS through the rest of the work week leading to a gradual warming trend through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile the next shortwave riding the parent ULT to the north will strengthen over the Pacific Ocean and begin to make its way onshore by the weekend following a similar trajectory as the early week system.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in a quiet forecast through Monday morning. Low confidence exists in shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday as well as the warming trend for later next week. No major grid edits needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through Sunday afternoon with no precipitation in the forecast. Afternoon winds are expected to be light at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Earlier thunderstorm activity over northern zones 469 and 470 has died out and is not expected to reform. Fair weather and warming temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Monday and Tuesday for central Nevada.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.