textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Generally fair weather in place through Monday, though breezes will be present Sunday

* Next weather system moves in over Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday with periods of rain and mountain snow

* Strong gusty winds over central Nevada Monday and especially Tuesday

* Temperatures will be cooler than normal Wednesday through the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few mid and high-level clouds are streaming across northern and central Nevada this afternoon with plenty of sunshine peaking through. This is all due to a ridge of high pressure that will be affecting the area's weather for the next several days. Quiet and dry weather will continue tonight under mostly clear skies with lows in the 20s and 30s.

The upper ridge axis will move overhead and then head east of the area on Sunday. The flow will become more southwesterly in nature with afternoon highs warming into the 60s and 70s by the afternoon. A few afternoon breezes will develop during this time, especially across central Nevada where wind gusts to 30 mph are possible. No precipitation is expected. Dry and quiet weather will continue Sunday night into Monday with lows warmer than the previous morning with readings into the 30s and light winds.

By Monday, a large closed upper low will be wobbling towards the west coast of the United States. Southwest flow will continue over the forecast area and additional warming is expected. This will result in afternoon highs about four to seven degrees warmer than on Sunday. Even with this warming, only one climate site will be near its record. Elko Airport's current record of 82 degrees was set back in 1994 while the forecast high will be 79 degrees on Monday. All other locations will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees for highs. Winds will also develop on Monday with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Clouds are expected to increase due to the slow forward progression of the incoming cutoff trough. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

The main upper low center is forecast to remain off the coast, though precipitation is expected to move into portions of California and western Nevada. Conditions are expected to remain dry during the morning but moisture will be increasing during the day. Strong winds will be developing during the late morning and afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast to be in central Nevada where speeds gusting to 50 mph are possible. In addition, high temperatures will remain above normal levels with readings in the 70s. Snow levels are expected to remain high during the overnight with lows in the 40s.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper low is expected to fill though cool and showery, wet conditions will remain. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s. Light showers are possible through Saturday with temperatures remaining near normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the forecast. High confidence continues through the short term with respect to the warming and dry conditions. Confidence has risen to around low to moderate with regards to the incoming cutoff system early next week.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy across the central TAF sites of KTPH and KELY with gusts to 30KT. Other locations in northern Nevada will see winds less than 15KT.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.