textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture remains over much of the area through the balance of the week.

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* A marginal risk of excessive rainfall continues across portions of eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* Temperatures will generally run near normal with warming by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Enough moisture and instability remains across portions of northern and central Nevada to give us another day of active weather. A few thunderstorm cells have produced heavy rainfall as well. Look for the convective activity to wane before midnight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

On Friday, models continue to show an upper level ridge circulation over Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow will be weak aloft and our story will remain that of two atmospheres. Bisecting the forecast in half from Elko, Lander, and northwest Nye, the eastern half will be moist with precipitable water values of eight tenths to over an inch, while a tight moisture gradient remains, and west of the above aforementioned area, precipitable water will be six-tenths of an inch or less. This will be an effective dividing line between no storms and wet storms. A marginal threat (five to fifteen percent) for excessive rainfall continues for the east. High temperatures will warm tomorrow into the 80s to upper 90s with some afternoon breezes to 30 mph. Expecting convective activity to wane once again in the evening with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Little movement in the medium-range guidance in regards to the upper level ridge as all models depict the center of circulation staying put across Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow continues to remain on the weak side through the weekend, keeping a rather moist environment over the region. Guidance has lowered precipitable water anomalies in western Nevada (Humboldt County) which is lowering confidence in thunderstorm threat in this area through the rest of the week. Will need to maintain a vigilant watch for heavy rain and flooding due to storms that form over the same area and drop rain. Highs through this timeframe will be in the 90s, though no triple digits are yet in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were made to expand the convective activity slightly westward today. Confidence remains high with respect in the short term forecast with wet thunderstorms favored each afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties especially up to the weekend. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential through the end of the week. Long range ensemble cluster solutions continue to bring a longwave trough into the Pacific Northwest Sunday into early next week, but disagreement exists in how amplified it remains in regards to wind impacts to our region. Should it remain more amplified in the less likely scenario, stronger winds would be favored into early next week.

AVIATION

Conditions will remain VFR through the upcoming 24 hour period across KWMC-KBAM-KTPH. Winds will diminish tonight but will increase tomorrow after 18Z with gusts to 25KT. For the eastern terminals of KEKO-KENV-KELY, TS chances remain about twenty to thirty percent during the early evening before diminishing after 04Z. Additional TS development expected Friday after 19Z with the highest probability at KELY (fifty percent) with lower probability at KENV (thirty five percent) and KEKO (twenty five percent). Main TS threats tomorrow will be erratic outflow winds to 30KT along with occasional MVFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Portions of northern and central Nevada will continue to reside under a moist environment, though drier air will slowly move east over fire zones 437, 438, and 424. Main threats from the showers and thunderstorms will be locally brief heavy rain, wind gusts to 40 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Any locations that have received previous rainfall, as well as over burn scars, may be more susceptible to runoff and localized flooding. Burn scars may also experience debris flows as several areas have experience high rainfall rates.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.