textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Deep subtropical moisture will continue its northward progression into portions of northern and eastern Nevada today

* Localized periods of heavy rain possible with any thunderstorm, leading to the potential for flash flooding through this evening

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall continues across portions of eastern and east-central Nevada through Thursday

* Temperatures will generally run near normal

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: This morning's 18 UTC sounding came in quite moist at 1.06 inches of precipitable water, which clocks in at the highest for this day. Radar loop is showing showers across eastern Elko county with convection already developing across western Humboldt and portions of north-central Nye counties. The main weather feature is a strong and expansive upper level ridge that is center over the Upper Midwest states at this time. A southerly flow aloft over northern and central Nevada is streaming moisture northward. Models continue to depict an environment that is conducive to locally moderate to heavy rainfall with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening period today. Current flash flood watch looks on track and will allow it to continue through its expiration time tonight. Ingredients continue to be robust with surface based CAPE values between 300-800J/kg with the highest values north of US Highway 50. Storm motions are around 10-15 knots but there is the potential for training storms given the low Corfidi vector magnitudes. Will continue to watch the radar for heavy rain development during the overnight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

For Wednesday, the upper ridge will slide to the west and position itself across the Inter-mountain West. Model output is trying to keep the precipitable water values at or above three-quarters of an inch by tomorrow afternoon. The best CAPE values are once again expected across portions of eastern Nevada (Elko and White Pine counties). 700-500mb storm motions continue to remain on the light side at about 5 to 10 knots. Again, there could be localized moderate rain with some of the cells that form tomorrow. Winds will generally be light. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Convective activity is expected to wane during the overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

The upper level ridge circulation is expected to remain out in the Intermountain West region Thursday. Models continue to depict a rather moist airmass across much of eastern Nevada with precipitable water values at or above three-quarters of an inch. In addition, forecast surface-based CAPE values of 300-700J/kg are seen over the eastern half of the forecast area. Some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall during the afternoon. There is concern regarding the possibility of a multi-day rain event in the eastern half of the forecast area and this will need to be monitored closely. Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s for Thursday with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

Model simulations continue to show not much movement with respect to the upper level ridge as the center of circulation remains across Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow across the forecast area is expected to remain weak through the weekend, keeping a rather moist environment over the region. Will need to maintain a vigilant watch for heavy rain and flooding due to storms that form over the same area and drop rain. Highs through this timeframe will be in the 90s, though no triple digits are yet in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Slight modifications were made to the PoP, weather, wind and wind gust grids in the near term portion of the forecast. Confidence remains high with regards to the short term wet forecast. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential through Thursday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions through the overnight though during the evening, VCSH/VCTS remains a thirty percent probability especially across the eastern terminals KEKO-KENV-KELY due to a very moist atmosphere. Winds will remain on the light side, though any cell will have the ability to produce gusty and erratic winds through 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Deep subtropical moisture continues to move across northern and central Nevada with scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across all fire weather zones today. Unsettled weather continues with afternoon showers and more wet than dry thunderstorms nearly every afternoon through Saturday for most fire weather zones through the period.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for NVZ031-033>041.