textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Sunday

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday and Tuesday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Tuesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado today through Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada today through Sunday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage each afternoon and evening today through Sunday. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Sunday. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 55 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States early next week. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into all of Eastern Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Thursday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Tuesday, July 21st, 2026:

Currie - 47% Ely - 46% Great Basin National Park - 43% Lund - 43% Ruby Lake - 43% Eureka - 42% Wells - 35% West Wendover - 34% Jackpot - 33% Elko - 32%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Wx grids from 18Z through 00Z regarding storm coverage in eastern NV Saturday afternoon were inconsistent with model guidance both long term and short term hi-res. Grids were also inconsistent with what our neighbors had. Model Blend was used to scrub NBM out of the Pops grids and was replaced with a 50-50 split of HRRR/ECMWF. This and some SerpISC helped increase storm coverage over the eastern portion of the state to a more realistic depiction. Medium confidence in forecast beyond the weekend. No changes made beyond short term grids.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of KELY, KENV and KEKO this afternoon into this evening. While general wind speeds are expected to be light Saturday afternoon winds in and near thunderstorm activity will be briefly gusty and erratic. VIS in and around thunderstorm activity could create brief moments of MVFR and IFR conditions near terminals in eastern NV.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today through Sunday. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 55 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.