textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm afternoon temperatures are expected today.

* Low probability of ten to twenty percent for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak storm system clips northern Nevada.

* Record to near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada returns Tuesday, lasting through the rest of the week.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mid and high-level clouds can be seen across northern and central Nevada this morning. Due to the cloud cover, temperatures have been fairly steady over most areas with readings in the 40s and 50s.

Upper level ridge circulation can be seen across southern Utah this morning with a weak upper trough over California. The weak trough is expected to slowly push eastward into the forecast area later today. Moisture and instability will be limited, leading to roughly a ten to twenty percent probability for showers and thunderstorms across the northern portions of I-80, east of a Winnemucca to Paradise Valley line. Surface based CAPE values will be around 100 to 150 J/kg in the aforementioned locations. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. The upper trough will slowly exit to the east. Models are showing a slightly slower progression and so have kept PoPs between ten and 20 percent through the early morning hours. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

Tuesday through Friday night, upper level ridging will rebuild west of the forecast area. This is expected to bring dry and quiet weather through the period. Afternoon high temperatures will once again warm to near record to record levels with readings in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. Winds are expected to be on the light side with occasional breezes to 20 mph.

By next Saturday models are still hinting at a pattern change that may bring more active, wetter weather back to Nevada in the form of a northern stream upper trough, however confidence remains very low as there are still large run to run differences in the placement and strength of the trough in recent model runs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Edits were made to the NBM for late this afternoon and evening due to the slower eastward progression of the upper trough through the eastern part of the forecast area. Confidence is low at this time regarding the isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon across northeast Nevada. High confidence continues for the upper ridge rebuilding across the southwestern United States with the return of near record to record temperatures Wednesday through the rest of the week. There is low confidence with regards to the potential of a pattern change as a stronger northern stream trough takes aim at Nevada for the late weekend period.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions through the upcoming forecast period. Expect mainly light south to southwest winds from 5-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots. There continues to be a low probability (ten to twenty percent) for isolated VCTS across the KBAM, KEKO, and KENV terminals this afternoon as a weak storm system moves through Nevada. Moisture and ins

FIRE WEATHER

A small probability for afternoon thunderstorms (ten to twenty percent probability) across fire weather zones 438/469/470 exists this afternoon. Any storms that do initiate will be more wet than dry. Given the low probability of storm activity, headline fire weather products are not needed at this time. By Tuesday, upper level ridging will become the dominant weather feature across the region, bringing dry and record to near record high temperatures. A weather system late into the upcoming weekend may affect the fire district with rain showers and thunderstorms, but confidence remains very low at this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.