textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures this weekend

* Cooler temperatures next week

* Rain chances next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge exiting the region will leave zonal flow aloft, keeping the weather relatively calm through early next week. Temperatures through Monday will remain above normal for this time of year, with highs remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Low temperatures will start in the low 30s tonight, and will continue to rise to the upper 30s/low 40s early next week.

If you're looking for a chance to go outside and enjoy the outdoors, the best chances for this are this weekend, as looking into next week we start to see influences of the polar jet. Starting Tuesday, the base of an upper level trough will extend into southern California, bringing plenty of pacific moisture and lift to our region. This will bring chances for precipitation for the remainder of the forecast period, with the highest chances on Thursday. Additionally, there is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. In terms of precipitation types, temperatures remain high keeping it mostly rain, however some mountain peaks will see the potential for some overnight snow. As a result of precipitation and increased cloud cover, high temperatures will drop to the upper 50s and low 60s, while low temperatures will drop to the mid 30s. Models continue to push back the timing of a cold front into late next week, continuing to give low confidence on timing and intensity at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the forecast through Monday. Medium confidence in the precipitation and temperature change next week. Low confidence on the chances of a cold front late next week.

AVIATION

South/southeasterly gusty winds Friday afternoon, ranging 20-22KTs, will diminish after sunset at KTPH. VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the next 24 hours. No precipitation in the forecast through Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

High temperatures will continue to stay around 5 degrees above normal through Monday afternoon. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Chances of precipitation are expected Tuesday through Thursday bringing mountain snow and valley rain. Isolated chances of thunder are possible with these storms on Tuesday. Humidity and winds remain below the threshold of concern during this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.