textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow today through Saturday evening

* Warming trend Saturday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The enclosed low pressure system that has been situated over western Nevada has begun weakening this morning and started to move northeast. This will cause periods of precipitation, mountain snow, and some isolated thunderstorms to shift towards eastern Nevada this afternoon and through the evening. With the system weakening, snow levels have increased as a result of warmer temperatures, keeping snow in the mountains above 9000 feet. Precipitation wise, total accumulation values will be light with a 25-30% probability of eastern cities/towns seeing greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Thunderstorm chances with the front moving will see up to 20-25% across much of the region with strongest probabilities in central Nevada along US-50 corridor and northeastern Nevada near Jarbidge Wilderness Area. Winds will also be light with wind gusts remaining below 20 mph. Highs expected to be in the upper 60s to 70s. Overnight into Saturday morning, lingering chances of precipitation across the region with probabilities of up to 20% of seeing additional rain showers. By the afternoon, the chances dissipate below 20% for weather activity as the low pressure system has weakened and moved further north, leaving calmer weather conditions overhead. High temperatures will by slightly warmer in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some breezy winds across northeastern Nevada with gusts up to 20-25 mph.

Sunday through next Friday, quiet weather conditions and warming temperatures will be the dominant factor for Nevada as upper ridging dominates across the CONUS. A low pressure system over the Alaskan Gulf will help keep the pattern as a zonal flow over Nevada but will not hinder the increasing temperatures each day, with highs starting in the 70s, warming into the 80s throughout much of the week, and by the end of the week, some areas could see 90 degrees return, as summer finally takes hold. Winds will be generally light each day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of ongoing periods of precipitation and mountain snow over central and northern Nevada this afternoon through Saturday morning. Moderate confidence of isolated thunderstorms over central and northern Nevada this afternoon. High confidence of calmer weather conditions and warming temperatures Sunday through next Friday.

AVIATION

Periods of VCSH, and -RA over all terminals today as the low pressure system weakens and shift northeast. VFR conditions will be the dominant category, however MVFR or lower conditions possible from passing storms. Chances for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon may affect all terminals except for KTPH. Breezy wester/northwesterly winds up to 10-15 kts gusts up to 20-22 kts across all terminals, however downdrafts from passing thunderstorms may bring gusty erratic winds up to 40-45 kts over the terminals. Periods of VCSH and -RA is expected to last overnight and into early next morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Periods of valley rain and mountain snow over all fire zones this afternoon as the low pressure system weakens and shifts to the northeast. A few isolated thunderstorm possible across all zones this afternoon with greatest chances in central zones along US-50 corridor and northeastern zones dissipating into showers by the evening. Elevated fire weather conditions over the eastern edge of zones 425 and 470, however increasing min RH values over 20% will help minimize any fire potential danger. Dry and warming weather conditions return Sunday, lasting through next Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.