textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend well underway today, and last through the rest of the week

* High pressure will be the dominant weather maker across the Great Basin, signaling a prolonged stretch of dry weather

* Record high temperatures are possible at several area climate sites beginning Sunday and into early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

A familiar pattern returns for this week as a warming trend kicks off for the second week of May. A REX blocking pattern is setting up again over the southwest. Also called a high over low, or figure 8 block, this pattern features a upper low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula topped by a upper ridge which will set up over the Great Basin. The result will be a prolonged period of dry conditions, and warming temperatures for NE Nevada through at least the middle of next week. Winds will be generally West to southwest at 10 mph to 20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph possible. Temperatures will be the main story with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s through Saturday. Then as the ridge strengthens and amplifies over the west Sunday into early next week, highs will reach the 90s for many locations, which means that for this time of year, temperatures will be approaching, and may exceed record territory for a few spots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for warming temperatures and dry conditions through Wednesday of next week.

There is high confidence for a period of near record to record heat starting Saturday, and lasting through Wednesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast through Friday evening with breezy west to southwest winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. Remnant mid level moisture will generate FEW to SCT convective build-ups for KEKO, KELY, and KENV through Friday afternoon. No moisture is expected at this time from these build ups.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure building in across the much of the west this week will lead to elevating fire weather concerns as dry conditions continue through the middle of next week. Warming temperature are forecast to reach near to, or exceed record highs by the late weekend. Breezy afternoon west to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, will combine with the temperatures to drop Humidity levels to the teens and single digits through at least Wednesday of next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.