textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Sunday evening

* A few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon through Sunday morning

* Cooling trend this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold temperatures aloft and minimal buoyancy should support isolated thunderstorm formation in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be locally heavy rainfall, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. An upper-level area of low pressure will approach Northern and Central Nevada tonight. This cyclone aloft will move eastward across the forecast area Sunday. As a result, periods of valley rain and mountain snow are anticipated this afternoon through Sunday evening. The majority of precipitation will fall tonight and Sunday morning. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet this afternoon, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Sunday morning, resulting in rain changing to snow on most passes and summits along Highway 50. Here are probabilities of one half of an inch or more of rain for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT Saturday, October 31st, 2026 through 10 PM PDT Sunday, November 1st, 2026:

Ely - 99% Lamoille - 86% Owyhee - 82% Spring Creek - 73% Battle Mountain - 72% Winnemucca - 65% Elko - 65% Wells - 61% Carlin - 60% Jackpot - 55%

Precipitation will come to an end early Monday morning at the latest. A cooling trend is expected this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be eleven to thirteen degrees below normal for this time of year. After a brief period of dry weather, another storm system may spread precipitation eastward across Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday. Yet another low pressure system may impact Northern Nevada late next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Sunday evening. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon through Sunday morning. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

MVFR conditions are likely in and near precipitation this afternoon through Sunday morning. Low forecast confidence regarding the exact timing and location of the precipitation.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT Sunday NVZ034.