textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Record warmth is expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada thru the weekend

* Strong winds over northern NV expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoon

* Dry weather will persist thru the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The historic heat wave continues for northern and central NV this week. The dome of high pressure responsible for hot high temperatures across the southwest CONUS remains entrenched to the south of the area. This keeps NV mainly in west-southwest flow in the northwestern quadrant of the high pressure system. In response temperatures through next Monday are forecast to continue setting daily high temperature records at all climate sites in the region.

A tightening zonal pressure gradient between the high to the south and an upper level trough to the north will enhance the wind profile over northern NV Wednesday and Thursday. A very subtle shortwave embedded in said flow will add some dynamical forcing to aid in wind production though the bulk of energy with the wave will remain north of the state. Southwesterly wind speeds of 15-20 knots mainly north of I-80 are forecast Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. While these speeds are currently short of advisory criteria future model runs should be scrutinized for increase to criteria level winds.

Early next week long-term model guidance depicts a large upper level trough amplifying just off the west coast finally breaking the stagnant hot pattern currently plaguing the region. Both GFS and ECMWF are consistent in the potential for precipitation finally impacting the region by mid week of next week as the trough makes its way into the Great Basin.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in prolonged heat wave and record breaking possibilities regarding high temperatures. Moderate confidence exists in stronger winds impacting northern NV each of the next few afternoons. No major changes to grids needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon under high pressure and fair conditions. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon southwesterly winds gusts for terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KELY will range between 20-30KTs before diminishing after sunset both evenings.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.