textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Warming trend this weekend into early next week
* Potential exists for monsoon storms Monday
DISCUSSION
(Today through Thursday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High temperatures this afternoon will trend warmer in the 90s. Over the weekend, quiet weather conditions expected each day as the upper trough begins to weaken and shift to a more southerly flow. High temperatures trending warmer in the mid to upper 90s over the weekend, with light winds.
Monday, upper ridging strengthens over the four corners region, with the upper trough still situated to the northwest. This pattern will set up to a more southerly monsoonal flow over Nevada. Increasing potential for afternoon convection as atmospheric moisture increases, ranging from 0.55-0.65 inches across Central and Northern Nevada. Probabilities for afternoon thunderstorms increase up to 20 to 25 percent. High temperatures still expected to trend warmer in the mid to upper 90s, with winds generally light again.
Tuesday, potential for afternoon convection remains, with residual monsoonal moisture trending more across Eastern Nevada as the upper ridge and upper trough begin to weaken to a more zonal flow by the middle of next week. Probabilities for afternoon thunderstorms lower to 15 to 20 percent across Central Nevada, with slightly higher probabilities over Northeastern Nevada at 20 to 25 percent. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with generally light winds.
Rest of the week, convection chances dwindle to quiet weather and warming temperature trends reaching into the upper 90s.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a warming temperature trend this weekend into next week. Moderate confidence of active monsoonal pattern forming Monday. No deviations from the NBM model output.
AVIATION
VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Southwesterly winds will be generally light at or below 10 kts.
FIRE WEATHER
Fire weather concerns are limited through the weekend as winds across the region will be light in nature.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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