textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and breezy conditions over central and northern Nevada lasting through Thursday afternoon.

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper level trough systems.

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

One more dry, yet breezy day on tap Wednesday as Nevada will be under the influence of a upper level jet max associated with a departing upper level trough that is lifting into the northern plains. The main impact will be to winds as breezy afternoon west to SW winds will reach speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Attention will then turn to our next major weather system that will move in late Thursday and last through the Weekend. Models are still showing a complex upper level trough setup with a large parent longwave trough digging south along the wast coast, this trough will contain up to four local maximums in vorticity, that will act as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The first will be a weak shallow shortwave that will lead the parent trough, moving through central NV Thursday afternoon. Friday through Sunday, the main trough will push in with three remaining vorticity maximums. One off the coast of Washington, one off the southern California channel Island, and a third in the middle off of the SF Bay area. It is this third area that will serve as a focus for Nevada, bringing several rounds of isolated to scattered showers, thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall through Monday morning. To be fair there is still a lot of unknowns with this system, the first being is how are all of the vorticity centers portrayed in model solutions will interact with each other. Second, how strong will these centers be. Third, what will be the track of the trough. Models in recent runs are trending stronger with the center vort max, which has helped bring some QPF recovery from yesterdays runs, however timing has shifted the bulk of the precipitation to Sunday, with isolated showers possible Friday and Saturday. With this system still well offshore, models will continue to be highly variable form run to run. Current multi-day precipitation amounts look to be about a trace to 0.35 of rain for passes and valleys, with up to 0.50 to an inch of water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 7000 feet by Sunday. With a trace to 0.5 possible for the higher elevation passes passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range peaks. Monday and Tuesday high pressure will build in as the trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region. Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the nest week, as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in quiet yet breezy conditions Wednesday with winds out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.

There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Thursday morning. Upper level system passing to the north will increase westerly winds to 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will be low to elevated for the next several days for all zones. Winds will be breezy Wednesday as a quick moving storm system passes to the north. Winds will be out of the west to Southwest at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Good news is that RH values will be high given the near to, to below normal temperatures meaning Red Flag criteria will not be met. After Thursday, a large upper level storm system is expected to moving across the west coast through Monday morning. This system will further reduce fire weather concerns as several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a few thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as wind remain on the breezy side out of the S to SW at similar speeds as before.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.