textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms continue across Northern Nevada tonight and into tomorrow morning

* Strong wind gusts to 50 mph will continue throughout Northern and Central Nevada this evening

* Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of Central Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity

* A Freeze Warning for south-central Elko has been issued for freezing temperatures tonight

* A Frost Advisory has been issued for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada tonight

* A Freeze Watch has been issued for the valleys of northern and central Nevada Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Active weather impacting northern Nevada will continue into the overnight hours with lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms into the early morning hours tomorrow. These storms still have the potential to produce strong erratic gusty winds this evening, dissipating to light showers overnight. Strong wind gusts over central Nevada is still expected to continue this evening with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible. Along with much drier conditions compared to northern Nevada, a Red Flag Warning is still in effect until 11 pm this evening. After 11 pm, winds will begin to dissipate. Much cooler temperatures behind the storm front will move across northern Nevada and into parts of central Nevada. Frost Advisory has been issued for northern and western Elko, southern Lander/Eureka, and White Pine counties with sub-freezing temperatures expected to drop as low as 33-36 degrees from 11 pm tonight until 8 am tomorrow morning. A Freeze Warning has been issued for south- central Elko county with overnight lows expected to drop between 28-32 degrees from 11 pm tonight until 8 am tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow, some lingering showers expected over Elko County with a 20% probability for becoming isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds are expected to be lighter with gusts up to 20-25 mph (30-35 for Tonopah) however strong gusty erratic winds from thunderstorms could reach up to 50 mph gusts. High temperatures expected to be much cooler with highs ranging upwards of 20-30 degrees below normal for this time of year in the 50s to 60s. Overnight lows expected to drop into the mid-low 30s for much of the region which has prompted a Freeze Watch from 11 pm Sunday till 8 am Monday.

Monday and through the next week, the upper trough will weaken over Nevada with the central core of the system moving northeast. The upper trough is not expected to dissipate, but instead stay over the western U.S. which will make temperatures gradually warm at a slower pace. This weaker trough is being supported by another low pressure system over the northwestern U.S. with models indicating that it will remain there and not push south. Highs on Monday and Tuesday still expected to be below normal, but be in the 70s, with normal temperatures in the 80s returning by Wednesday. Monday lows will still see some areas drop into the mid-upper 30s and gradually warm into the 40s throughout the week. Winds expected to be light and breezy until late week on Thursday, with winds elevating across central Nevada. There is a low probability some isolated thunderstorms from across the northern state border late in the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of strong gusty winds across central Nevada and lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening. High confidence of much cooler temperatures prompting Frost Advisory and Freeze Warnings tonight. Moderate confidence for lingering showers and thunderstorms over Elko county tomorrow afternoon. Moderate confidence for Freeze Watch Sunday night into Monday morning. Moderate confidence for quiet weather conditions through next week. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

Chances for showers and thunderstorms across all northern terminals until this evening, becoming lighter showers overnight. VFR conditions dominant however MVFR or lower conditions possible from passing thunderstorms. Breezy westerly/northwesterly winds up to 15-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts, however gusts up to 50 kts possible from passing storms. For the central terminals, VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period due to drier weather, however strong gusty westerly/northwesterly winds up to 20-30 kts, gusts 35-50 kts until this evening. Winds across the region will dissipate overnight but still be elevated from 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts.

Overnight showers expected to continue into tomorrow morning across northern terminals with chances for more active thunderstorms mainly over KEKO. Winds expected to be breezy again across all terminals from the west/northwest up to 15-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag Warning is still in effect for central fire zones until 11 pm this evening as winds expected to stay strong up to 35-50 mph with low humidity in the single digits. Active showers and thunderstorms across all northern zones this evening, becoming light showers overnight. The showers and thunderstorms expected to last overnight and into tomorrow, being more centralized over the northeastern zones tomorrow afternoon. Fire weather conditions improve across all zones tomorrow with winds expected to be lighter with gusts up to 20-25 mph, and min relative humidity in the 20s across central Nevada (with the exception of zone 426 and southern parts of 427 and 425 staying between 10-15%). Quiet weather conditions return throughout the next week with winds staying light to breezy until Thursday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Saturday for NVZ425>427.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ031-035-037-038.

Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning NVZ031-035>039.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033>041.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ039.