textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper level trough systems.

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Large and complex upper level trough of low pressure is starting to make its way on shore. Models are still showing a complex upper level setup consisting of a large parent longwave trough that will stretch along the entire west coast. Making up the trough trough are up to four local maximums in vorticity, that will act as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms that will last through Monday morning. The first will be a weak shallow shortwave that will lead the parent trough, moving through central NV Thursday afternoon as it dissipates. Friday through Sunday, the main trough energy will push in with three remaining vorticity maximums. One off the coast of Washington, one off the southern California channel Islands, and a third in the middle off of the SF Bay area. Models have shown some consistency that this middle vorticity max will become the dominant area of lift as it moves over Nevada, as the southern low now looks to become absorbed by the dominant trough segment. Model timing has also become more consistent as the bulk of the precipitation looks to fall on Sunday, with isolated to scattered showers possible Friday and Saturday. Current multi-day precipitation amounts have risen some more given the slower movement with about a trace to 0.45 of rain for passes and valleys, with up to 0.50 to an inch plus of water for the higher passes and mountains. Snow levels will again start high at 9000 feet, dropping to about 7000 feet by Sunday. With a trace to 0.5 possible for the higher elevation passes passes, and up to 1 foot of snow for the range peaks. Monday afternoon high pressure will build in as the trough departs bringing quieter weather back into the region this ridge will be in place at least through Thursday, as models are wanting to bring another trough through Nevada for the following weekend. Temperatures will be near to, to slightly below normal for the weekend,and into next week as high will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the potential for several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday afternoon, and persisting on and off through early Monday morning.

There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week which will bring quiet, dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Friday morning. Upper level system approaching Nevada will bring a chance for VCSH and VCTS for KELY, KEKO, and KENV for the afternoon to evening, while shift winds to the S to SW at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will be low next several days for all zones. A large upper level storm system is expected to move across the west coast beginning this afternoon, an exiting Monday morning. Several rounds of isolated to scattered rain showers, a few thunderstorms, and mountain snowfall will be possible, even as wind remain on the breezy side out of the S to SW at similar speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.