textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Historically high atmospheric moisture content Tuesday

* Flash Flood Watch Tuesday for most of Northern and Central Nevada

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

Subtropical Ridge of high pressure remains in place over the central Rockies of Wyoming and Colorado. Meanwhile an inverted trough is undercutting the upper ridge, this trough currently near the Rio Grande valley will continue to move west into Arizona Tuesday. The two systems will keep southerly flow and the surge of monsoonal moisture over Nevada with near record precipitable water values leading to a high chance for scattered thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon. Storms hazards will include heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, hail, and localized flash flooding. Given the moist environment with the mid level moisture surge, there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall as storm motion allows for slow moving and training of cells over any given location. A flash flood watch remains in effect for Elko, Eureka, Lander, N Nye, and White Pine Counties through Tuesday. Wednesday, the trough will be rounding the western edge of the ridge and lifting north into Utah, setting up another active day Wednesday afternoon, although not as active as Tuesday. By Thursday the trough get picked up by the westerly flow over the northern tier of the US. The ridge will also be shifting to the SW as well, bad news is this will cut of the monsoonal flow for a while, allowing temperatures to warm up while storm chance dwindle over the weekend, before ending Monday of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

There moderate-high confidence in the potential for flash flooding issues for northeastern Nevada for Tuesday and Wednesday with a flash flood watch in effect.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers/thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC this afternoon into this evening. Direct terminal impact cannot be ruled out. The strongest thunderstorms could produce erratic wind gusts near 45 knots and reduced visibility in heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening for the next few days. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 55 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening NVZ031-033>041.