textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

117 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

* Periods of mountain snow showers and valley rain showers through Monday night.

* Colder storm system to arrive mid-week with light precipitation.

* High temperatures drop slightly below normal behind this system Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A closed upper-level low continues to move towards the northern California coast this afternoon, with warm southwest flow preceding it across the Silver State. A broad deformation zone to the northeast of this closed low has been the focus for light rain showers and high elevation snow showers today with snow levels only dropping to 6500 feet into Monday. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form by mid afternoon, especially across central Nevada, eventually spreading across northern Nevada into the late afternoon. These are expected to continue through the evening and into the early overnight hours, eventually organizing into larger areas of stratiform rain through the overnight hours. Chance for thunder generally 15% or less this afternoon with no severe weather expected.

The upper low will open as it moves onshore and across the Great Basin Monday, with scattered rain and snow showers thanks to weak afternoon instability beneath the low. Snow levels around 6500 feet. Total liquid precipitation amounts through Monday afternoon around a tenth to a quarter of an inch along I-80 to half an inch across the higher terrain. Lightest totals of only a few hundredths across northern Nye and southern White Pine Counties.

Long range ensemble members are in good agreement with shortwave ridging moving across the region Tuesday into early Wednesday before the next shortwave trough digs southward from Oregon into the Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture amounts don't look particularly impressive with this system as compared to the current feature. This combined with the more progressive nature of the system will keep precipitation totals on the lower side with accumulating snow mostly confined to elevations above 7000 feet. Snow levels drop below 5000 feet by Thursday afternoon, which will provide the best chances for light snow for northern valleys into Thursday night. Even with that, 90th percentile snow amounts remain under half an inch below 7000 feet.

Long range ensemble cluster scenarios begin to hint that a Rex Block will form into this weekend, with disagreement on when the next shortwave kicker trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Best chances for precipitation next weekend will be Sunday across northern Humboldt and Elko Counties closer to the incoming shortwave trough.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Forecast confidence remains high for cooler temperatures into the midweek period behind the current weather feature. Lower confidence in coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with a 15% chance for thunder across the I-80 corridor in northern Nevada. The most likely scenario this weekend will be for drier conditions with a Rex Block pattern keeping precipitation confined to the Pacific Northwest. 15% of the long range ensemble members break the block down earlier with increased rain and snow chances across far northern Nevada by next Sunday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and winds 10KT or less are expected at all sites except KELY through the next 24 hours. KELY is expected to see a period of gusty winds around 20KT during the early afternoon today before dying down again after a few hours. Showers are possible at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV beginning this afternoon and continuing into the overnight. Showers are not expected to be widespread and as a result any lowered ceilings or visibilities associated with them are expected to be short lived.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.