textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated valley rain and mountain snow in Northern Nevada this afternoon and evening, primarily north of I-80

* Dry and relatively cool Tuesday thru Thursday

* Increasing probability of precipitation Thursday night and thru the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A modest Pacific low pressure system continues to move into the PacNW this morning. Satellite imagery as of 0130 PDT this morning shows the low pressure center positioned along the shore of southwest Washington/northwest Oregon. As this system progresses west today, it will drag a weak cold front thru Northern Nevada from the west- northwest. This will produce isolated light valley rain showers and mountain snow showers across portions of northern Nevada, primarily north of the I-80 corridor. Significant accumulation is not expected under any shower activity and any accumulations will remain less than a tenth of an inch. West- southwesterly winds will also become breezy today with widespread gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds shift west- northwesterly tonight while concurrently easing, becoming variable and mostly downslope dominant by the latter half of the night.

Generally zonal flow will be present over Nevada beginning Tuesday with numerical model solutions depicting an upper impulse moving thru the mean flow and across northern Nevada Tuesday. However, not expecting any significant weather effects Tuesday other than an increase in cloud cover, primarily over northern Nevada, with skies clearing overnight. Upper level flow will gradually shift southwesterly by Thursday as a deep upper level trof takes shape off the coast of the western U.S. Weather thru mid week will be fair yet cool, residing near to a few degrees cooler than seasonal. Southerly winds increase Thursday in response to the deepening upper level trof offshore and gusts 25 to 30 mph can be expected across most of the forecast area. By the Thursday night/Friday time frame, a period of unsettled weather is indicated to begin. This includes increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes. Model solutions depict the upper level trof progressing thru Nevada from the west Sunday. Saturday and Sunday will prove to be the best days to observe accumulating precipitaton and valley totals currently look to reside between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with higher accumulations across the high terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate forecast confidence of isolated valley rain and mountain snow showers across Northern Nevada today. Moderate forecast confidence pertaining to active weather at the end of the week and next weekend though confidence in forecast precipitation accumulations is low. Utilized various model blends for PoP and weather fields.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals thru tonight. West-southwsterly breezes will be present at all terminals this afternoon with gusts 20KT to 25KT forecast. Winds shift west-northwesterly this evening and tonight with winds concurrently easing.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated light valley rain and mountain snow showers will be present across portions of northern Nevada this afternoon and evening as a modest cold front moves thru northern Nevada from the west-northwest. The best opportunity for any shower activity will be north of the I-80 corridor. Precipitaton accumulations will remain less than 0.10 inches and wetting rains are not expected. Also anticipating west- southwesterly breezes along the cold front with gusts 30 to 35 mph. Winds then shift west- northwesterly tonight while concurrently easing, becoming variable and mostly downslope dominant by the latter half of the night. Fair weather returns thru mid week though southerly winds become breezy Thursday as a robust upper level trof deepens offshore of the west coast. Gusts 25 to 30 mph can be expected. Unsettled weather, including increasing probabilities of precipitation thru the weekend as well as breezes, returns Thursday night/Friday. Saturday and Sunday will prove to be the best days to observe accumulating precipitaton as the upper level trof moves thru Nevada. Valley totals currently look to reside between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with higher accumulations across the high terrain.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.