textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend thru Sunday

* Showers and a low chance of thunderstorms this afternoon

* Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this weekend

* Widespread precipitation returns early next week

UPDATE

Issued at 119 AM PDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The current forecast remains on track and no significant updates are required.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As the parent upper level trof over central Canada slowly pushes east, the second of a pair of shortwaves traversing the upstream flow of the trof will impact the forecast area today. Showers and a low chance for thunderstorms exists this afternoon but the environment is very underwhelming. Chances of thunderstorms have diminished as the second shortwave has jogged slightly east compared to yesterdays positioning. This has lead to less forcing (less favorable LI) and instability than previous numerical solutions had indicated.

The warming trend is still on track as afternoon highs are increasing incrementally each afternoon. Highs in the 70s for much of northern and central NV are anticipated by Saturday and Sunday.

The next weather system to impact the Great Basin will form as an upper closed low off the west coast Saturday. As the low deepens it will travel south down the CA coast. As it migrates south this opens the region up to southwesterly flow downstream of the strengthening trof. Pressure gradients will tighten enough for brisk winds Saturday afternoon and even stronger winds, especially for central NV, Sunday afternoon. The low will begin to push east Monday increasing vorticity and instability over the region by Monday morning. This system currently isn't sporting much in the way of moisture for the area so precipitation accumulations don't appear very robust at this time. Rain is expected Monday and Tuesday as the low passes just south of the region. Stronger ridging builds into the area by the middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in the warming trend occurring now thru the weekend. Low confidence continues for showers and thunderstorm this afternoon as the ingredients for convection are very underwhelming and have diminished since yesterday. Confidence is growing in strong gusty winds for central NV especially on Sunday. Low confidence exists in a system next week impacting the region with precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours. KEKO and KENV have a low chance of showers 21-03Z which may temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility if any showers move on terminal, but would not be long lived.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.