textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperature trend with breezy to windy conditions will continue through next week.

* Near record high temperatures across the region into next week.

* A weak weather system clips over northern Nevada this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure ridging continues to strengthen over the southern Pacific Coast while a strong low pressure trough over the Great Lakes will keep the upper ridge from moving northward. Despite the position of the low pressure trough keeping a northwesterly flow overhead, the position of the upper ridge is pushing the cooler air and moisture over the Pacific Northwest and pushing in the dry, warmer weather over Nevada. Warming temperature trend is expected to continue today and into the next week with near record temperatures expected each day. Recent model runs are showing a tightening of the weather gradients which has increased expected wind speeds tomorrow and over the weekend, with Thursday westerly winds reaching up to 20-30 mph, gusts as high as 45 mph over Elko County. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of Elko County Thursday. Rest of the region is expected to see westerly winds up to 15-25 mph, gusts as high as 35 mph. Friday, breezy westerly winds up to 10-15 mph, gusts as high as 20-30 mph.

The next potential for weather is expected on Saturday as a small weak trough will clip across northern Nevada. This clipper is increasing the potential for rain with a 30-45% chance, however very little moisture is expected with areas seeing only up to 0.01 inches of rain. This small trough will tighten the weather gradients even further, giving a potential for another Wind Advisory as westerly winds are expected to increase with speeds up to 25-35 mph, gusts as high as 40-50 mph across northern Nevada and parts of central Nevada. There is a potential that the winds may be stronger, with a probability of 35-40% that wind gusts across northern Nevada along I-80 corridor may reach above 50 mph, which will warrant a High Wind Warning.

Sunday, and into next week, winds will be much calmer as the high pressure over the Pacific will push east into the southwest, giving a strong ridging over the area. Warming temperatures will continue with up to an 80-90% chance highs break into new records through the week, both daily and for the month of March.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of warming temperature trends into next week with near record temperatures. High confidence of strong gusty winds across northeastern Nevada tomorrow. Moderate to high confidence of a small weather system impacting northern Nevada Saturday with strong winds. Moderate confidence for potential of High Wind Warning Saturday. Adjusted the wind grids to NBM 90th percentile to better reflect recent wind events.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period. Some breezy westerly winds at 8-12 kts with the exception of KTPH at 10-15 kts, gusts as high as 20-24 kts, then becoming lighter this evening. Few cloud conditions across the northern terminals at FL200-FL250, otherwise clearing out this afternoon.

Tomorrow, stronger westerly winds expected across all terminals as the weather gradients tighten around 17z. Northern terminals may see up to 20-30 kts with gusts as high as 35-45 kts while central terminals can see up to 15-25 kts, gusts as high as 25-35 kts. Wind Advisory has been issued for Elko County tomorrow.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ031-033-034-039.