textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues.

* Unseasonably high temperatures will remain in place through the weekend. Heat related headline products may be needed by mid- to-late week.

* Elevated fire weather conditions possible across northern NV Friday through Sunday due to hot, dry, windy weather

* Low probability chance of dry thunderstorm activity over central NV this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An active fire season in the Great Basin continues as smoke from area wildfires both in NV and surrounding states is impacting visibility and air quality over the region today. HRRR short term guidance has smoke slowly diminishing over northern NV this evening and less smoke over the area tomorrow. That being said, smoke will likely impact the forecast each day through the short-term.

A large dome of high pressure continues to grip the SW CONUS and control the weather pattern through this week. Upper level placement of the HPC to the south keeps northern NV in its northern flank meaning westerly flow aloft. In the lower levels the placement of the HPC meanders between directly overhead and slightly southeast of the region through this weekend. This will mean a southerly shift in low level flow by Wednesday PM/Thursday. This coincides with a marked increase in temperatures for the area. Afternoon highs beginning Wednesday will soar to triple digits. Heat products will be needed for the late week as HeatRisk increases to major and even extreme categories for portions of the area.

Stronger westerly flow across northern NV Friday and this weekend, combined with hot temperatures and single digit RH values will bring elevated fire weather conditions mainly for Humboldt and Elko Counties. While wind speeds are slightly below RFW criteria at this time, future model runs will need to be scrutinized for Fire Weather product potential.

Long term guidance has an increase in PW values over Nye and White Pine Counties this weekend. Diurnal forcing with the extreme heat will create an environment suitable for convection. Currently low probabilities exist in those locations for a potential return to convective weather by Saturday and Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in continued smoky conditions affecting the area through Monday evening as well as warming temperatures that will prompt Heat products by mid week. Moderate confidence exists for elevated fire weather conditions across northern NV late this week. Low confidence exists in dry T probabilities late Saturday and Sunday. Grid edits were not needed for NBM output at this time.

AVIATION

Areas of smoke from area wildfires will create momentary MVFR/IFR conditions at all terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday with no precipitation anticipated at this time. North-northwesterly wind gusts at KPTH and KELY terminals Monday afternoon will range 15-17KTs before diminishing after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Light winds under high pressure are expected across all fire weather zones Monday and Tuesday. Elevated westerly flow across fire weather zones 437/424/438/469/470 Friday and this weekend are closely being watched. Currently wind speeds fall below RFW criteria but should those increase, the combination of increased speeds with antecedent dry, hot conditions will warrant RFW products for those zones. Sunday a low probability chance exists for dry thunderstorm activity for zones 425/426/427.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.