textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected during the latter half of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

* Very Warm temperatures possible early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Fair weather, warming temperatures, and light to breezy afternoon winds continue through the week as NV remains in between an offshore ridge, and a northern plains trough. Today through Tuesday the ridge will build eastward over the west coast, this will push the trough slowly eastward as well. This will cause heights to rise over Nevada, and the pressure gradient to relax some allowing for the westerly afternoon winds to run at 10 MPH to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible. The other notable change will be the warm-up of temperatures this week into the next. High temperatures look to warm from the low 80s to low 90s Thursday, back into the upper 80s to upper 90s by next Wednesday. Overnight lows will also warm, rising back into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Sunday morning. Models are hinting at developing a shortwave upper trough somewhere over the NW US late Sunday into Monday of next week. Models are still wavering on the location of this trough, with little to no run to run consistency in either the GFS or ECMWF ensembles. Still even with the proximity of this trough, both model suites keep NV dry while shifting winds out of the north, and enhancing wind speeds to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH possible. across the northern tier of the silver state. This will have to be watched for the potential for fire weather/wind headlines for the latter half of the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through next weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday. Winds will be WNW at 10KT to 20KT with occasional gusts up to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as the upper level ridge builds east. While allowing for the westerly winds relax a bit during the afternoons, at 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible. However, this will be offset by drier lower RH conditions, and warming temperatures peeking in the upper 80s to upper 90s by Next Wednesday. There is the potential for a upper trough to transit NV Late Saturday through Monday. At this time passage looks dry with wind shifting to the north at 15 MPH to 25MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH possible.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning NVZ031-039.