textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering storm chances in eastern Nevada through tomorrow

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage later on Friday and into the weekend

* Temperatures are expected to cool by Friday and Saturday with readings near normal

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Four Corners-Upper Level Trough (4C/ULT) hybrid setup continues to reside over the western CONUS. The western flank of the HPC to our east continues to pump sufficient moisture into eastern NV resulting in afternoon convection mainly over White Pine and Elko Counties. Antecedent drought conditions and dried out fuels are mitigating the effects of precipitation associated with convection this week. Lightning strikes have been successful in igniting numerous fires across the area. Thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will continue to create hazardous fire behavior.

The area receives a double shot of moisture on Friday and into the weekend as residual moisture from a tropical system off the CA Coast will filter into western NV. PW values will be anomalously high (1+ to 1.2 inches) on Friday. This has resulted in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the area according to WPC. Rainfall amounts Friday and Friday night will range 0.25-0.5 inches across northern NV and western NV. Said rainfall and resulting cloud cover will lead to a cooling trend into the weekend that will send temperatures a few degrees below normal for late August.

The eastern side of the state is forecast to receive more monsoonal moisture lending to the soggy forecast this weekend though model disagreement exists in the placement of the HPC later this week. A southerly placement could mitigate moisture over the region as a more westerly flow in eastern NV could shut off moisture availability. A more northerly placement closer to its positioning now could result in an underestimation of monsoon activity currently in the forecast. Future model runs will need to be scrutinized as time grows closer to Friday.

Beyond the weekend the 4C/ULT hybrid setup looks to break down resulting in the potential for quieter weather as we head into September.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for afternoon thunderstorm activity over eastern NV through Thursday. NBM Wx grids were heavily modified from 18Z on Wednesday to 03Z on Thursday due to a complete lack of thunderstorm representation. The NBM continues to do a very poor job of accounting for convection in the Great Basin in general. A combination of SST and SerpISC was used to raise PoPs values to a sufficient level so that thunder could be realized in the Wx Grids. Confidence continues to grow regarding increased precipitation Friday and Saturday as well as an associated cooling trend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Thursday afternoon. VCTS is anticipated at KEKO, KENV, and KELY through early Wednesday evening. TS that does occur will restrict flight rules to MVFR/IFR conditions briefly. Winds in and around TS activity will be gusty and erratic. Afternoon wind gusts at all terminals will range 18-22KTs out of the southwest through early Wednesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms continue today for zones 425, 469 and 470. Storms have already begun and are expected to persist until sunset. The main concerns continue to be hazardous cloud to ground lightning and erratic gusty winds around 50 mph. Storms are expected to move from southeast to northwest at a rate of 10 to 20 mph. A similar pattern is expected for tomorrow, with comparable strength and coverage, before convective activity increases significantly for Friday. Elevated dry windy conditions are expected in areas not impacted by storms, due to RH values around 15% to 20% and winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.