textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend continues through Friday

* Dry weather will persist into the weekend

* Stronger winds possible Saturday, and combined with low minimum relative humidity values, will lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few echoes can be seen on radar this afternoon though no precipitation has been noted on remote observation platforms. For tonight, expect mostly sunny skies over the region with mostly light winds. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A mainly west to east flow will take shape across northern and central Nevada through roughly Friday, with a minor variance on flow Thursday. This will mean fairly quiet weather conditions will persist across northern and central Nevada through this period. Highs will warm to above normal levels at all locations with readings in the 80s and 90s. There is a weak trough passage expected Thursday, which will bring a few degrees of cooling for the afternoon but no precipitation is expected at this time. Highs Thursday afternoon will be in the 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

By late week, a strong upper level low will begin to make its way into the Pacific northwest states. While the bulk of the system will remain to the north of the area, the resulting tightening of the pressure gradient will bring about an increase wind speeds across the area Saturday. Future scrutiny of model runs will be required to check for the possibility of wind and fire weather headlines for the upcoming weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Had to add in low end pops and weather across the northern tier and east-central sections of the forecast area for today due to weak instability, low level convergence, and limited moisture in the low to mid levels. No other changes were made to the NBM forecast. Confidence is low in coverage and timing of afternoon sprinkles/storms today. Confidence is high with regards to increasingly warm temperatures through the week with dry conditions. Confidence is low in elevated to critical fire conditions for Saturday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. No precipitation is anticipated through the forecast period. Winds will occasionally be breezy with afternoon gusts to 20KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Conditions are expected to remain on the dry side across Northern and Central Nevada through the upcoming week. Winds will be light, with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph through mid-week, with winds becoming more breezy with gusts to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digit to low teen range each afternoon with highs warming to well above normal levels by mid- week. By Saturday, winds and minimum relative humidity values will be elevated to critical and will need to be watched closely.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.