textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon. Coverage Thursday is expected to be near the Utah border * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Radar has shown several strong to severe thunderstorms moving across portions of northeast Elko county this afternoon. Moisture continues to remain highest in this area with precipitable water values of two-thirds to three-quarters of an inch will remain over the area. CAPE values of 400 to 700J/kg along with sufficient 0-3km bulk shear (30-40kt) and 0-3km helicity of 100-200m2/sec2 are promoting severe storms in the area. The intensity is expected to diminish during the early evening hours tonight. Other locales are seeing mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

By tomorrow, drier air will continue migrating east across the area. Kept isolated showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Nevada. Otherwise, most locations will be on the dry side. Highs will be in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the 50s.

Friday through early next week. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. The heat is expected to commence on Friday with highs reaching the mid 90s to low 100s, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. Record high temperatures for Elko, Eureka, and Ely may be met during this time. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed for portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. Look for additional degrees of cooling Monday and Tuesday as a large and expansive upper ridge dominates the weather across the United States. Models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. High confidence on the upper ridge strengthening late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday through the weekend. Confidence is low on the timing and coverage of storms for early next week.

AVIATION

Expect storms on Wednesday across mainly northeast Nevada with KEKO and KENV terminals with VCTS. VFR conditions will persist at all other locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible

AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity continues across fire weather zones 438/469/470 through this evening. Through the rest of the week temperatures continue to rise increasing HeatRisk by the weekend when afternoon highs across all fire weather zones are expected to climb to triple digits.

Elevated fire weather conditions due to winds and low relative humidity are a possibility across northern and portions of central Nevada Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be hot with minimum relative humidity values between 4 and 8%. This will need to be watch for the potential of headline fire products. Lastly, models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.