textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality and may lead to respiratory issues

* An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect Thursday through Sunday for all of Northern and Central Nevada

* Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern Nevada Friday due to hot, dry, and breezy weather

* Low probability of isolated dry thunderstorms in Central Nevada on Friday thru Sunday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large dome of high pressure continues to grip the SW CONUS keeping high temperatures well above normal. Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal have prompted an Extreme Heat Watch for the region beginning Thursday and lasting at least through the weekend. Time outdoors should be limited for both people and animals. Those that work outside should prioritize hydration.

Smoke from area wildfires continues to plague the area with hampered visibility and low air quality. Those with respiratory issues should avoid time outdoors. Smoke is expected to remain in the forecast in the short term under high pressure and light winds.

A slightly tighter pressure gradient in zonal flow just north of the Silver State will increase westerly wind speeds across the northern border later this week. Afternoon breezes combined with very low RH values and extreme heat will create elevated fire weather conditions across northern NV.

Friday and Saturday the positioning of the surface high will meander eastward into the region of the Four Corners. This will open central and southern NV up somewhat to monsoonal flow. Current guidance has western AZ and the Baja being the main source regions for moisture. While PW values aren't spectacular (0.7-0.9 inches) the threat of convection will return to northern portions of Nye and southern White Pine Counties possibly as soon as Saturday. Diurnal forcing and sufficient instability make the threat of more dry than wet convection a possibility though current probabilities for storm activity remain low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for extreme heat and smoke through the remainder of the week. Moderate confidence exists in elevated fire weather conditions across northern NV. Low confidence remains in dry storm activity over Nye and White Pine Counties this weekend. No major changes needed for grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Thursday afternoon with no precipitation forecasted. Wednesday afternoon wind gusts of 18-20KTs at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and KTPH will diminish after sunset Wednesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Fairly benign fire weather conditions continue through mid week across all fire weather zones thanks to light winds. Elevated conditions are possible starting Thursday through the weekend for northern NV fire zones due to stronger sustained winds along the northern NV border. A low chance of dry thunderstorm activity is possible for fire weather zones 425/426/470 this weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.