textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record warmth through Friday.

* Gusty winds Friday through Monday, though strongest gusts (of 35-45 mph) are expected Saturday and Sunday.

* Chance of showers Saturday through Wednesday.

* Periods of moderate to heavy rain Sunday into Monday, with rainfall accumulations of a half inch or more likely across much of east-central Nevada by Monday morning.

* Chance of mountain snow Sunday night through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Well above normal temperatures again today with light winds across the region.

By Friday, an upper level trough across the northwest CONUS will push southeast through the western states and will begin to move a much cooler air mass into the intermountain west behind a strong cold front. As the trough pushes southeast, southwesterly winds will begin to increase, with speeds reaching 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25- 30 mph on Friday. Conditions remain dry as little moisture will be present over Nevada. Concurrently, as the low pressure pushes southeast, remnants from Hurricane Rachel will push northward into southern Nevada, getting absorbed into the mean upper level flow, and bring a big increase in moisture.

Chances for showers increase Saturday and will persist through Wednesday, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected on both Sunday and Monday. Though Sunday is expected to see the greatest amount of accumulating precipitation. Temperatures will see a big dip as the cold front moves over Nevada Friday night-Saturday morning with highs in the 80s on Friday, and dropping into the 70s Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures expected to see another dip with highs only in the 50s across northern Nevada, 60s in central Nevada. Overnight lows will also see a drop in temperatures starting in the 40s on Friday, and reaching to freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s by Sunday lasting through Wednesday. Chances for snow return in the forecast each night however snow amounts are very low and are expected to remain in the mountain peaks as snow levels drop slowly each day staying above 8000 feet. Breezy southerly winds Saturday through Monday with speeds up to 20-25 mph, gusts up to 35-45 mph with strongest winds on Saturday in central Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry and above normal temperatures today and tomorrow. High confidence for a low pressure system moving into Nevada late Friday and over the weekend. High confidence of gusty winds increasing Friday with stronger winds on Saturday. Moderate confidence in regards to moisture from a Pacific tropical storm moving into Nevada over the weekend bringing in increasing chances for showers. High confidence in regards to much cooler temperatures moving into northern and central Nevada over the weekend. Moderate confidence in regards to precipitation over the weekend and lasting through next week. Low confidence in regards to mountain snow over the weekend. Changes to wind gusts in the grids to better represent the increasing wind speeds Friday.

AVIATION

VFR condtions at all TAF terminals today with continued above normal temperatures and light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Increasing clouds this afternoon across portions of FWZs 425 426 and 427, though not expecting any showers or storms. Temperatures remain well above normal today with continued light winds. While conditions remain warm and dry on Friday, winds will become breezy in the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Winds increase on Saturday with peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures trend cooler beginning on Saturday with rains developing late Saturday into Sunday. Increasing precipitation and continued cooling Sunday into Monday with wetting rains looking likely across all zones except 437. Heaviest rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning across east central Nevada, including all of zone 425 where latest guidance suggests more than three quarters of an inch of rainfall. Lighter showers continue Monday night into Tuesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch 1 PM PST to 9 PM PST Friday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Fire Weather Watch 9 AM PST to 9 PM PST Saturday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.