textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather conditions will develop over the next several days

* Temperatures will begin cooling today, lasting through the weekend

* Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing beginning Friday night and continuing into early next week

* Chance of isolated rain showers and mountain snow this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Quiet weather conditions over Nevada will be the main drive over the next several days with light winds and a cooling temperature trend. Over the weekend, an upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will extend southward clipping northern Nevada by Saturday, into Sunday. This trough will shift wind patterns to a northwesterly flow that will bring in much cooler temperatures with probabilities of 80-100% that high temperatures will be around 20 degrees below normal in the 50s with overnight lows dropping below freezing into the 20s. Along with the trough, relative humidity levels will also increase and push into northern Nevada that will give chances for some rain showers and mountain snow. Confidence is low however as models are split with how much moisture will be in the atmosphere over the weekend with some models indicating precipitable water values below 0.3 inches. Much of the precipitation is expected to fall over eastern portions of Nevada in Elko and White Pine Counties. Accumulation amounts expected to be light in the valleys, but still see upwards of 50-70% of up to 0.02 inches of rain, while higher elevations and mountains above 6000 feet will start seeing snow as snow levels drop before the precipitation arrives. Overnight, rain will transition to snow with snow levels dropping around 4000 feet. Snow accumulations in the valleys not expected to be much with values ranging from a trace to 0.1 inches, while passes and summits along eastern I-80 and north of the interstate, up to 1 inch of snow. Jarbidge Wilderness Area, Ruby Mountains, and mountain ranges in White Pine County could see up to 1-3 inches of fresh snow. Winds also expected to increase as the upper trough passes over Nevada with afternoon wind gusts up to 30-40 mph or more.

Monday and through the week, the upper trough will push east and exit the state, returning quiet weather conditions with temperatures quickly warming back to near normal in the 70s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of quiet weather conditions with cooling temperatures trends through the rest of the week. Moderate confidence of much cooler temperatures to freezing overnight temperatures through the weekend. Low confidence of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend. Moderate confidence quiet weather conditions and warmer temperatures return next week. No changes to the NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period with general light winds at or below 10 kts with a few gusts up to 17 kts possible today across all terminals.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.