textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes. Much stronger winds are in store Friday and Saturday

* Temperatures will gradually cool each afternoon beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

* A fifteen to thirty-five percent probability for rain showers expected Sunday and Sunday night but amounts will be on the light side.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny out there across the entire forecast area. There are a few mid clouds hanging around central Nevada but not enough to block out the plentiful sunshine.

Northern and central Nevada is sitting west of an upper ridge in northern Utah. This feature will slide to the east and north during the overnight. The weather will remain quiet tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

An upper level trough will be diving to the south and east Friday. Surface winds will be on the increase from the southwest with speeds gusting from 30 to 40 mph. A few locales could see gusts to 45 mph but effects will remain localized. Patchy blowing dust is possible during the afternoon that could drop the visibility to three miles or so. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. Look for the winds to diminish during the early to mid portions of the evening. Overnight lows temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s.

The main upper low will remain well north of Nevada for Saturday. Southwest flow will continue across the area which means dry conditions will persist. Winds are forecast to be strong again across central nevada with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. High temperatures will cool several degrees with readings in the 70s and 80s once again. No precipitation and limited cloudiness is expected for Saturday night into Sunday with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Another wave is expected to approach the western United States Sunday. This one is further south than the previous trough and will be moving on shore in California during the afternoon. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy during the day with the possibility of isolated rain showers during the late afternoon and overnight across the forecast area. Amounts will be light with most valley locales seeing nothing up to five hundredths of an inch. Highs will again cool by a degree or so with readings generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

The upper low will continue its eastward progression Monday and Tuesday. The deepest moisture is expected to remain far east and south of the forecast area with scattered rain showers clipping the eastern and east-central portions of the forecast area, including White Pine county. Highs both afternoons will be in the 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

The flow remains westerly for Wednesday and Thursday, which means mainly dry conditions. Highs are expected to warm a few degrees each day with readings in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only minor adjustments were made to the wind and wind gust grids for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the NBM.

Confidence is high for the strong winds Friday and Saturday afternoon, along with slight cooling each day. Meanwhile, confidence in the light rain showers increases to moderate for Sunday, though placement of activity and amounts remain low. This includes the activity seen Monday as well. There is moderate to high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will increase late tomorrow morning and early afternoon across all terminals with gusts between 25 to 35 knots. Patchy BLDU will be possible with reductions to 3SM in the most dense dust. Winds will subside after 26/03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Look for elevated fire weather conditions for Friday across the northern fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Winds will be gusty with speeds of 30 to 40 mph, but minimum relative humidity values will generally be at or above 15%. For Saturday and Sunday, elevated fire conditions will shift southward with fire zones 425, 426, and 427 being most affected. Winds will gust 25 to 35 mph with minimum relative humidity values right around 15% or higher. Some locales could see slightly lower RH's to 12%, but the areal coverage will not be enough to warrant critical headlines. Afternoon high temperatures will cool a degree or two each day.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.