textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low probability of isolated dry thunder in central NV Saturday and Sunday

* Confidence is increasing with respect to well above normal temperatures by early next week

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A trio of features look to influence Nevada Sunday and Monday, will result in a few minor impacts for parts of our area. The first and second features will be a pair quick moving troughs will pass through the WNW flow over the Pacific NW. Models which have struggled with these features as what was one trough will split into two separate entities. Part one will keep the main energy with it, staying within the westerly flow and clipping NE NV. The second will form a weak cutoff low over central California. These features will shift winds out of the north, at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Also on Sunday, there is a small weak shortwave, the third feature, that will be passing through Arizona. For the most part sensible weather from this system will stay south of our area, but since there may be an enhanced SE flow due to the proximity of the cutoff low over California, enough moisture may make it into far SW White Pine County to trigger a 10% to 20% chance for isolated dry thunderstorms areas near Great Basin NP. After Tuesday upper level ridging will build back allowing for winds to shift back to the WNW through Friday of next week. The main headline feature remains the warming temperatures this weekend trough the next week. High temperatures continue to rise, and are forecast to be back into the upper 80s to upper 90s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will also warm, rising back into the upper 40s to mid 60s. This trend will have to be watched for the potential Heat headlines for Elko county for next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through next week.

There moderate confidence in the potential for heat issues for northeastern Nevada for the middle of next week.

There is low confidence in the chances for isolated dry thunderstorms Sunday afternoon for SW White Pine County.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Monday. Winds shift to N at 10KT to 20KT with occasional gusts up to 30KT possible, for KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KENV. There is a low 10% to 20% chance for VCTS producing gusty erratic winds for KELY Sunday afternoon. Otherwise dry conditions with SE winds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible for KELY and KTPH.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as an upper trough splits over NE Nevada, creating a cutoff low over the Sierra, that will push a wind shift line through northern Nevada Sunday and Monday, bringing northerly winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Also on Sunday a weak disturbance moving Arizona along with the cutoff low may draw enough mid level moisture to trigger a 10% to 20 % chance of isolated dry thunderstorms over SW White Pine County. Unfortunately, none of these features will interfere with the warming trend underway, as daytime highs peek into the upper 80s to upper 90s by Next Wednesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.