textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture remains over much of the area through the balance of the week.

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* A marginal risk of excessive rainfall continues across portions of eastern and east-central Nevada through Saturday.

* Temperatures trending slightly above normal through the weekend then closer to normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

On Friday, models continue to show an anticyclone centered over Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow will be weak aloft and our story will remain that of two atmospheres. Bisecting the forecast in half from Elko, Lander, and northwest Nye, the eastern half will be moist with precipitable water values of eight tenths to over an inch, while a tight moisture gradient remains, and west of the above aforementioned area, precipitable water will be six- tenths of an inch or less. This will be an effective dividing line between no storms and wet storms as CAPE will be much lower in aforementioned areas west of this line. A marginal threat (five to fifteen percent) for excessive rainfall continues for the east. High temperatures will warm tomorrow into the 80s to upper 90s with some afternoon breezes to 30 mph. Expecting convective activity to wane once again in the evening with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Little movement in the medium-range guidance in regards to the upper level ridge as all models depict the center of circulation staying put across Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The flow continues to remain on the weak side through the weekend, keeping a rather moist environment over the region. Medium-range guidance continues near normal precipitable water anomalies in western Nevada (Humboldt County) which is lowering confidence in thunderstorm threat in this area through the weekend. Will need to maintain a vigilant watch for heavy rain and flooding due to storms that form over the same area and drop rain. Highs through this timeframe will be in the 90s, though no triple digits are yet in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence remains high with respect in the short term forecast with wet thunderstorms favored each afternoon across Elko and White Pine Counties especially up to the weekend. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential through the end of the week. Long range ensemble cluster solutions slowly push the shortwave trough now riding the Washington coast around the ridge axis into British Columbia, which lowers the stronger wind potential for northern Nevada this weekend. A similar pattern looks to emerge late next week with growing confidence for continued monsoonal moisture across eastern Nevada with little movement in the main ridge across the Rocky Mountains.

AVIATION

VFR conditions through the TAF period with increasing southwesterly winds from 10 to 15 kt and gusts to 25 kt at WMC and 30 kt at TPH from 18Z through 02Z. Southwest winds increasing to 8 to 12 kt generally at BAM, EKO, ENV, and ELY. Additional showers and thunderstorms (30-40% chance) at ENV and ELY in the afternoon. Lower confidence (less than 10%) for thunderstorms at EKO and will preclude mentioning in the TAF for now. Gusty and erratic winds to 35 kt possible once again with stronger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon between 18 and 04Z (lingering longest at ELY and ENV).

FIRE WEATHER

Little change in the moist regime across eastern Nevada today with showers and thunderstorms forming in nearly a carbon copy of yesterday, with a slight shift east and suppression of activity across zones 469 and 427 and little to no activity in 438 and 426 where a sharp cutoff in RH and dew point exists. Hazards with thunderstorms once again include brief heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and outflow winds to 40 mph. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible for storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.