textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend thru Sunday

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons

* Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this weekend

UPDATE

Issued at 156 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The current forecast remains on track and no significant updates are required.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure attempts to move into the western U.S. the remainder of this week, prompting a gradual warming trend with afternoon high temperatures reading in the 70s by this weekend. However, a chaotic upper level pattern over greater North America will produce a shortwave that will traverse north to south to the east of the state today and Thursday. This feature will be close enough to create some convective forcing over the eastern third of NV. Better confidence exists in scattered showers both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as PWAT values in the 0.3-0.4 inch range are sufficient for showers but not so much storm activity. CAPE values (100-200 J/kg) and LI (0 to -2) on Thursday give evidence to said forcing and instability but the lack of moisture over the region at that time leads this forecaster to believe nothing more than showers and some convective build ups are possible. A 15% of isolated convection is probably a bit generous with this current model run. Though will maintain in the forecast isolated thunderstorms over portions of Elko and White Pine Counties Thursday afternoon.

Brief ridging will build into the Great Basin Friday and Saturday before a stronger LPC develops and begins to push southward down the West Coast by Saturday afternoon. This will open the region (particularly central and southern NV) up to stronger southwesterly flow as the pressure gradient begins to tighten over the area. While precipitation with this next system looks to be more into Monday and early next week, wind concerns for central NV are certainly in place for the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in a warming trend into the weekend. Low confidence exists in thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, mainly due to lack of moisture (see discussion above). Thunder was left in grids as prob (>15%) keeps storms as isolated both afternoons. Better confidence exists in strong gusty winds for central NV this weekend due to incoming weather system. No major changes to grids needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals thru Thursday. Afternoon and evening winds will be light at all terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms for KEKO and KELY are forecast Thursday afternoon. Temporary restricted flight rules and gusty, erratic winds are possible in and around storms that do move on terminal.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.