textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low shower and storm chances today for far eastern portions of NV

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

High pressure is slowly sliding west over the great basin region will become the main weather headliner for the next week and and half, but models hint at a parting shot of mid level moisture Monday afternoon. With the majority of the region staying dry and very warm, for UT/NV border area, convective buildups will be likely across eastern NV and even a low 20% to 20% chance for a isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible. The best chances will be along the UT/NV border and could reach Ely and West Wendover. However any precipitation that reaches the ground will be brief and very light as storm motion limits accumulations. Tuesday through next Monday mid/long range models are resolute in the return of quiet Summertime conditions, with breezy afternoon W to SW winds, and very warm temperatures. as the upper ridge builds in over the southern Great Basin. Fire weather, and Heat Risk conditions will need to be watched closely as the drying out of both the land and atmosphere commences, and heat builds, overnight relief will be brief if any. Winds will be out of the west to SW with breezy afternoon winds ranging at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Temperatures will range in the mid 90s to mid 100s. A heat advisory in effect for sections of Elko County for Sunday, and may need to be expanded as heat impacts build through the week. As for Fire weather, RH percent values will drop into the low teens to single digits in the afternoons, with overnight recoveries only making it back to the upper 20s, combined with afternoon winds may lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence for a low chance of a few isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon for far eastern NV.

There High confidence in the return of quiet Summertime conditions, with breezy afternoon winds and very warm temperatures Tuesday through the start of next week.

AVIATION

Gusty afternoon winds up to 25KT are expected at all sites except KENV Monday. Additionally there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms near or at KELY and KENV this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated southwesterly wind speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts near 25 mph are possible across northern NV Monday afternoon. Combined with RH values in the single digits this will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions in NW Nevada. A low percent chance for thunderstorms exists along the eastern NV border in FWZ 425/470 this afternoon. Storms that do occur will create hazardous conditions including dangerous lightning and gusty erratic winds. Faster storm motions today will inhibit precipitation that does occur from extinguishing any new starts.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033.