textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record warmth through Friday.

* Gusty winds Friday through Monday, though strongest gusts (of 35-45 mph) are expected Saturday and Sunday.

* Chance of showers Saturday through Wednesday, though highest probabilities (of 40-60%) will be on Sunday and Monday.

* Chance of mountain snow Sunday night through Wednesday night at the high peaks in central and northern Nevada.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot and dry conditions continue today through Thursday as upper ridging remains over the southwest. High temperatures remain several degrees above normal, reaching near records. Winds light and variable.

By Friday, an upper level trough across the northwest CONUS will push southeast through the western states and will begin to move a much cooler air mass into the intermountain west behind a strong cold front. As the trough pushes southeast, southwesterly winds will begin to increase, with speeds reaching 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25- 30 mph on Friday. Conditions remain dry as little moisture will be present over Nevada. Concurrently, as the low pressure pushes southeast, remnants from Hurricane Rachel will push northward into southern Nevada, getting absorbed into the mean upper level flow, and bring a big increase in moisture.

Chances for showers increase Saturday and will persist through Wednesday, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected on both Sunday and Monday. Though Sunday is expected to see the greatest amount of accumulating precipitation. Temperatures will see a big dip as the cold front moves over Nevada Friday night-Saturday morning with highs in the 80s on Friday, and dropping into the 70s Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures expected to see another dip with highs only in the 50s across northern Nevada, 60s in central Nevada. Overnight lows will also see a drop in temperatures starting in the 40s on Friday, and reaching to freezing temperatures in the 20s and 30s by Sunday lasting through Wednesday. Chances for snow return in the forecast each night however snow amounts are very low and are expected to remain in the mountain peaks as snow levels drop slowly each day staying above 8000 feet. Breezy southerly winds Saturday through Monday with speeds up to 20-25 mph, gusts up to 35-45 mph with strongest winds on Saturday in central Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry and above normal temperatures today and tomorrow. High confidence for a low pressure system moving into Nevada late Friday and over the weekend. High confidence of gusty winds increasing Friday with stronger winds on Saturday. Moderate confidence in regards to moisture from a Pacific tropical storm moving into Nevada over the weekend bringing in increasing chances for showers. High confidence in regards to much cooler temperatures moving into northern and central Nevada over the weekend. Moderate confidence in regards to precipitation over the weekend and lasting through next week. Low confidence in regards to mountain snow over the weekend. Changes to wind gusts in the grids to better represent the increasing wind speeds Friday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour period with light winds below 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns in the short term as winds remain light and variable below 10 mph. By Friday, the weather pattern begins to shift and elevated fire weather concerns return in the afternoon as a low pressure system moves into Nevada, increasing wind speeds to 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Minimum RH reside around 10-15%. Minimum RH increases above 15% Saturday though at the same time the wind speeds will increase. Winds are expected to be stronger than Friday with speeds up to 20-25 mph and gusts 35- 40 mph. Red Flag Warning Conditions will be borderline both Friday and Saturday. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for all northern zones Friday and Saturday as there are still active wildfires in the area and borderline RFW condtions will likely be enough for a notable increase in fire activity. By Saturday afternoon and evening, chances of rain showers increase with widespread wetting rains forecast Sunday and Sunday night with the exception of the western half of FWZ 437. Light showers are expected to linger through Wednesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch 1 PM PST to 9 PM PST Friday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Fire Weather Watch 9 AM PST to 9 PM PST Saturday for fire zones NV424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.