textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperatures and quiet conditions will continue through next week.

* Near record high temperatures across the region into next week.

* A weak weather system clips over northern Nevada this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The Rex Block pattern over the western CONUS has dissipated with the cut-off low now pushed eastward over southern Arizona and New Mexico, while the high pressure got pushed west and absorbed by a much larger high pressure ridge over the Pacific. The trough to the south will aid in keeping northwesterly flow over central and northern Nevada keeping cooler temperatures along with enhanced winds this afternoon at 15-20 mph, gusts up to 25-35 mph. By tomorrow, winds will be lighter with cooler temperatures in the morning.

By Wednesday afternoon, the influence from the low pressure system will weaken as it moves further eastward towards southern U.S. while the high pressure over the Pacific moves east and into the western U.S. This will lead to warmer temperatures over the southwest from Thursday through the weekend with highs approaching near record for this time of year in the 60s to 70s. Light to breezy westerly winds Thursday through Sunday up to 5-15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Recent model consistency is showing an upper trough from the north pushing into the Northern Rockies by Saturday, which will try to flatten the upper ridge and push just enough into the OR/ID/NV border. Recent model runs is showing increasing chances for precipitation up to 30-45%, however this is expected to remain along the mountain ranges in northwestern Humboldt and northern Elko county with very light amounts only up to 0.01 inches. Increasing northwesterly winds are expected with the passing trough, up to 15-25 mph, gusts as high as 30-40 mph with the strongest winds over Elko County. After the trough quickly passes, models show the upper ridge strengthen back up over the southwest, with a 90% confidence of reaching towards the warmest record for high temperatures in March across central and northern Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of high northwesterly winds this afternoon. High confidence for potentially near record temperatures through next weekend. Low to moderate confidence for a weekend system over northern Nevada. No changes to the grids were made at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period. Breezy westerly/northwesterly winds this afternoon up to 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 20-30 kts as the upper trough to the north tighten the pressure gradients. Clouds from the upper trough will keep CIG levels in the northern terminals ranging from FL100 to FL150, clearing out this evening.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.