textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through Sunday

* Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this weekend

* Widespread precipitation returns early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A shortwave trough is currently sparking some scattered showers in eastern Nevada. These showers are expected to be light and short lived, although there is about a 10% chance for them to produce a lightning strike or two. Showers are expected to rapidly die out after sunset and the trough exits to the east overnight. Weak ridging will take its place, allowing for a warming trend that will see high temperatures in the 70s for this weekend. A low pressure system is expected to build off the California coast during this period and looks to move onshore late Sunday. Initial impacts will be felt Sunday afternoon, with gusty south winds around 30 to 35 mph in central Nevada and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area. Precipitation will continue to be the theme for the first half of next week, with shower chances hovering around 50-70% through Tuesday night, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected each afternoon. Some showers may have some snow mix in at very high elevations, but snow levels remain well above 8000 feet during the entire period. The day with the heaviest liquid accumulation is currently expected to be Monday. The low begins to exit the area Tuesday night, although a few final showers or thunderstorms currently cant be ruled out for Wednesday. Current model guidance indicates high pressure will build behind this system, however this is currently a high variance, low confidence solution.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in warming temperatures through this weekend. Moderate confidence in breezy to gusty conditions on Sunday, and wet conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours, with two exceptions. First, KEKO has a low chance for showers during the afternoon hours which could temporarily lower visibility and ceilings. Second, KWMC is expected to see a wind increase, gusting around 20KT, around 06Z.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.