textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures today.

* Strong southerly wind gusts today through early morning tomorrow.

* Periods of light rain and high elevation snow arrive late Friday evening into Saturday morning.

* Another storm system approaches the area Monday and Tuesday with additional precipitation.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging that has been over the southwest this week is now being pushed eastward as a series of upper troughs move inland from the west. Unseasonably warm temperatures will linger today with highs a few degrees above normal in the upper 50s to 60s as warm southerly flow continues to push into Nevada. Strong gusty southerly winds over Nevada today as weather gradients tighten from the oncoming weather front. Winds expected to reach as high as 20-30 mph with gusts up to 35-50 mph with strongest winds over central Nevada and is expected to last into the early morning hours Saturday. The upper troughs will also bring in periods of precipitation and mountain snow, starting in western Nevada this afternoon, reaching across the eastern portions by the evening, and lasting until Saturday afternoon. Snow levels will start above 8000 feet today and drop to 6000-6500 feet overnight, however snow is expected to stay in the mountains with minor accumulations in the high passes and summits as the precipitation pushes further east by the time the cooler air arrives. There is a 50-70% probability of high passes and summits above 6000 feet seeing up to a trace to 0.5 inches of snow, and a 20-40% of seeing up to one inch of snow (up to 2 inches possible for Pinto and Murray Summit), with the highest probabilities along US-50 corridor. Snow is not expected to reach the valleys with the exception of Ely during the overnight hours when snow levels drop around 6000 feet, with light accumulation expected from a trace up to 0.3 inches.

This first weather front is expected to exit Nevada by Saturday afternoon, leaving calmer weather conditions that will last through Sunday with cooler temperatures near or just a few degrees below normal. By Monday, a second weather system is expected to impact Nevada lasting through Tuesday with additional periods of precipitation and snow. Much cooler temperatures expected with the second system as highs drop a few degrees below normal Monday, and drop even further with some areas seeing up to 10 degrees below normal in the 30s by Tuesday.

The second weather system is expected to exit Nevada by Tuesday evening, however there will only be a short reprieve from the weather as a third system is expected by Wednesday afternoon with additional periods of precipitation and snow, lasting through Thursday evening. Temperatures will continue on a cooling trend as highs expected to be up to 10-15 degrees below normal by Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence to above normal temperatures today. High confidence in regards to strong gusty southerly winds today lasting through this evening. Moderate confidence in regards to periods of precipitation and mountain snow this evening through Saturday morning. Moderate confidence of snow accumulation reaching the higher passes and summits above 6000 feet. Moderate confidence in regards to additional weather systems impacting Nevada next week. No changes to the grids at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected to be the dominant conditions through the day with strong gusty southerly winds across all terminals ahead of oncoming weather expected this evening. Southerly winds up to 15-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts over the northern terminals, while central terminals expected to see up to 20-25 kts, gusts 30-35 kts with strongest winds expected in the afternoon. Strong elevated winds are expected throughout the day and into the early morning hours of Saturday. By late afternoon and into the evening, -SHRA conditions expected to reach across all terminals that may cause MVFR or lower conditions. During the late evening to overnight hours, -SHRA will transition to -SHRASN over KELY. Snow is not expected at any other terminals. The periods of precipitation is expected to last until Saturday morning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-033>041.