textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Light precipitation possible in Central Nevada later this afternoon through tonight.

* Dry conditions expected Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

* Gradual warming Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite loop is showing mid and high-level clouds streaming across northern and central Nevada this morning. Further west in the eastern Pacific, the next storm system can be seen spinning off the coast of California. There are a few weak returns on radar but nothing measurable is reported on remote observation platforms.

For today, all models are showing the upper level system over the east Pacific moving towards California and into western Nevada with its effects seen a little later this afternoon and evening. For most of today, expect peeks of sunshine with the clouds and occasional afternoon breezes to 15 to 20 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the 50s, which is just shy above normal. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop later this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours tonight. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Snow levels are expected to start above 6500 feet, gradually lowering to about 6000 to 6500 feet during the overnight. Snow amounts at the aforementioned elevations will be up to a half-inch or so, with up to and inch or so along the highest passes and summits.

By Wednesday, a shortwave ridge will transit the forecast area, bringing partly to mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Models are showing a weak impulse moving through the area late Wednesday and Thursday but not too much in the way of precipitation is expected with this feature. Overnight lows through Wednesday night will be in the 20s and 30s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s. Winds are expected to remain light.

For Thursday through the weekend, models are showing a ridge of high pressure building across the southwestern United States. This will bring a period of quieter weather to northern and central Nevada. A warming trend will commence with highs gradually reaching the upper 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds are expected to remain light through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No adjustments were needed to be made to the NBM model output. Confidence is high regarding warm afternoon highs today. Confidence in the upcoming low pressure system is high with light, showery precipitation expected across portions of northern and central Nevada later this afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Moderate forecast confidence regarding dry weather Wednesday through at least Sunday. Moderate forecast confidence in gradual warming Thursday through Sunday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 12 to 18 hours. Winds will be relatively light. A storm system will be moving into the region later this afternoon and evening, leading to degrading flying conditions. -SHRA/-SHSN are expected to develop later this afternoon and evening, leading to reduced VSBY to at least 2SM and CIGS of 1k-2k feet at times.

KBAM TAF is AMD NOT SKED due to a communications outage.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.