textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across eastern Elko county, White Pine county and NE Nye county

* Critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday across Central and NE Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening

* Much cooler this weekend

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The gradual cooling trend continues today as trough energy approaches from the northwest. Most locations will be a degree or two cooler than Wednesday, with highs this afternoon generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Remnant mid-level moisture along with weak instability will keep a 10 to 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across Eastern Elko County, White Pine County and portions of Northeastern Nye County. Any storms that may develop today would be expected mainly between 11AM and 5PM PDT, with wind gusts of up to 50 mph possible. Less available moisture and weaker instability today should limit precipitation to either pea sized hail or light rain ranging from virga up to possibly a tenth of an inch.

Friday the upper level low approaching from the NW will be centered along the BC coastline, with associated trough energy impacting northern and central Nevada. Much of northern NV (north of I-80 and west of Highway 93) can expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Winds across both northern and central NV Friday afternoon will generally be in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Highs on Friday will be significantly cooler, ranging from 70s across northern NV to 80s across central NV.

The upper level low that is projected to be near Vancouver Island on Friday is progged to be centered over eastern Oregon Saturday afternoon, with the associated strong jet across northern and central NV. Breezy to windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 40 to 55 mph. Slightly stronger winds across higher terrain.

Saturday night into Sunday the upper level low shifts slightly east, centering over the Intermountain West and Great Basin region. Much cooler Saturday night through Sunday night. Lows each night are expected to dip into the low to mid 30s for most valley locations, with highs Sunday in the 60s.

Warmer early next week, though still below normal. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected by Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviated from NBM guidance with respect to thunderstorm chances this afternoon, increasing the dry thunderstorm probabilities in order to get isolated dry thunderstorms across Eastern Elko County as well as most of White Pine County and portions of NE Nye County. Moderate confidence in dry thunderstorms this afternoon, highest along the Utah border and near Great Basin National Park. High confidence in increasing winds over the coming days. High confidence in a cooling trend, with moderate confidence in lows Saturday night and Sunday night reaching into the 30s.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF locations today and tonight. West to SW winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected across the region this afternoon into the early evening hours. The other primary concern this afternoon will be a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across eastern NV, including KEKO, KENV and KELY. At this time confidence of any TS activity over or in the vicinity of these terminals is too low to add to the TAFs. As for KWMC, KBAM and KTPH, thunderstorm chances this afternoon are less than 5%.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (10-20%) this afternoon across zones 470, 425 and eastern portions of 426, mainly between 11AM and 5PM. Zones 469 and eastern portions of 427 will have a 5 to 10% chance of dry thunderstorms this afternoon. West to southwest winds of 12 to 17 mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected across the region this afternoon, with minimum relative humidities in the 5-15% range in most valley locations, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions.

A storm system approaches Nevada from the Pacific NW later this week which will result in stronger winds across all fire weather zones Friday into the weekend. Strongest winds are still expected on Saturday. The approaching system will however give a boost to the RHs, especially across northern NV fire weather zones. For now the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon and evening for all zones except 437. Latest guidance suggests RHs Friday will be above critical levels for zones 438, as well as most of zones 469 and 424. If this trend continues the main concerns on Friday will be limited to zones 470, 425, 426 and 427. As for Saturday, strong winds everywhere with westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 40 to 55 mph, however the low afternoon RHs currently look to be limited to zones 425, 426 and 427.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470