textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Sunday night

* A few strong thunderstorms possible both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning

* Cooling trend this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold temperatures aloft and minimal buoyancy should support isolated thunderstorm formation in parts of Eastern Nevada this afternoon. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. An Eastern Pacific storm system will dig southward tonight, before making landfall over Northern California Saturday. This low pressure system will move eastward through Northern and Central Nevada Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. The majority of precipitation will fall Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet this afternoon, before dropping to about 6,500 feet Sunday morning. Here are probabilities of one inch or more of rain for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 5 PM PDT Friday, October 30th, 2026 through 4 AM PST Monday, November 2nd, 2026:

Lund - 89% Lamoille - 73% Jiggs - 72% Ely - 67% Spring Creek - 66% Austin - 65% Duckwater - 64% Wells - 60% Elko - 57% Eureka - 47%

Precipitation will come to an end early Monday morning at the latest. A cooling trend is expected this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be eleven to thirteen degrees below normal for this time of year. Dry weather is anticipated Monday afternoon through at least Thursday morning. A warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be near seasonal values. High temperatures will remain near seasonal values both Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Sunday night. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

MVFR conditions are likely in and near precipitation this afternoon through Saturday morning. Low forecast confidence regarding the exact timing and location of the precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER

A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Sunday night, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. The majority of this precipitation will fall Saturday night and Sunday morning. In addition, strong, gusty southeast to south winds are expected in parts of Central Nevada Saturday night and Sunday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening NVZ034.