textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through Thursday

* Moderate to Major Heat Risk for Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return starting Saturday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridging continues to expand over the desert southwest, with dry and warming conditions as a result. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out for tomorrow and Thursday, but odds are around 5% at most. Temperatures are expected to climb as the ridge takes hold, peaking on Thursday with highs in the upper 90s and triple digits possible along the I-80 corridor. Heat Risk during this period will be in the Moderate range, with some Major sprinkled in and a Heat Advisory may be required for portions of northern Nevada on Thursday. After Thursday the ridge is expected to shift back east again, leaving southerly to southwesterly flow over Nevada. This would reopen monsoonal moisture flow and bring yet another wave of monsoonal thunderstorms to the forecast area by the weekend. High temperatures are also expected to return to the more seasonal low 90s for the weekend and into early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in dry and warming conditions through Friday. Moderate confidence in returning monsoon conditions this weekend and early next week. No changes to NBM output.

AVIATION

Light winds and VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated conditions through Friday due to breezy afternoon winds and dry and warming conditions. Some locally critical wind potential is being watched for this weekend but returning monsoon flow may increase humidity enough to negate fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.