textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong southerly winds will impact central Nevada in the afternoon and evening hours this weekend.

* Marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. A flash flood watch remains in effect for White Pine, northern Nye and portions of Elko counties Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* Most areas across northeast and central Nevada will see decent rainfall accumulations with some locations seeing a half to over an inch of rainfall through Monday.

* Lingering showers and much cooler conditions Tuesday.

* Dry Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Southerly winds intensify across much of the region today as storm systems approach from the NW and SW. Strongest winds will be across portions of east-central Nevada (including NE Nye, White Pine and portions of SE Elko Counties) where S-SW winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected. Blowing dust and reduced visibilities are a concern this afternoon as conditions have been dry for quite some time. Winds will weaken overnight into Sunday, with another round of gusty S-SW winds Sunday afternoon and evening in these same locations. Weak instability will set up across portions of eastern Nevada this afternoon, with a 25% chance of thunderstorms for generally the eastern two-thirds of Elko County and most of White Pine County. The strong surge of moisture coming up from southern NV will begin to impact east-central Nevada around or shortly after midnight tonight, with moderate to heavy rainfall expanding west and north Sunday into Sunday night. Sunday afternoon there will also be a 20% chance of thunderstorms across most of central and northeastern Nevada. With the exception of Humboldt County, most of the CWA is expected to receive at least a half inch of rainfall between 5AM Sunday and 5AM Monday. Heaviest rains are still expected across east-central Nevada where an inch to an inch and a half of storm-total rainfall amounts are forecast. By Monday evening the system will be centered over southern CA, then eject eastward through southern NV and into the four corners region by late Tuesday. Lighter rain showers are expected to continue over most of northern and central Nevada Monday night into Tuesday morning with showers ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Dry but noticeably cooler conditions are expected Wednesday through at least next Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts in Central Nevada this afternoon and evening, with moderate confidence in strong winds Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend through Monday.

AVIATION

Partly to mostly cloudy conditions this morning become cloudy by late this afternoon. Gusty S-SW winds this afternoon and evening with the potential for blowing dust reducing visibilities to one mile. There is a 25% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon across much of eastern Nevada including the KEKO, KENV and KELY terminals. Rain shower activity will increase across central NV by 06Z Sunday with moderate to heavy showers expanding up through central and most of northern Nevada all day Sunday into Sunday night. Moderate to heavy rain will result in CIGs of MVFR and possibly IVR levels at times between Sunday 06Z and Monday 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

A significant storm system will begin to impact northern and central Nevada today, bringing gusty winds to the entire region, along with isolated showers and thunderstorms to eastern zones including 469, 470 and 425. Minimum RHs this afternoon will range from 15% to 35% with southwesterly winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting 25 to 45 mph. Strongest winds today are expected across east- central NV including FWZ 425. Due to gusty winds, near-critical minimum afternoon RHs and ongoing wildfire concerns, Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM today for zones 424, 437, 438, 469 and 470. Rain showers will intensify tonight into Sunday with periods of moderate to heavy rain across most zones, with lightest rain in NW Nevada and heaviest rain amounts across east- central Nevada. Light to moderate showers linger Monday into Tuesday, with dry conditions expected Wednesday through Friday.

HYDROLOGY

Deep moisture from decaying Hurricane Rachel is expected to move northward, crossing into portions of east-central and eastern Nevada late tonight through roughly Monday. This significant moisture will interact with upper level low pressure to bring widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms to the watch area. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cause excessive runoff and may result in rock, mud, and debris flows in and near former fire burned areas, steep terrain, and poorly drained urban areas. Some of the former fire locations include but are not limited to the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, and Egberts Fire.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ033-035-040-041.

Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night NVZ033>035-039>041.