textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon

* Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across Central and NE Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening

* Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across portions of Central Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low approaching Nevada from the NW is currently centered along the BC coastline. Noticeably cooler across northern NV today with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Warmer across central NV with highs in the 80s to low 90s. A cold front will pass from NW to SE across the CWA today, with gusty west to southwest winds ranging from 15 to 25 mph gusting in the 25 to 40 mph range for most locations. Slightly stronger winds of 25 to 30 mph gusting 40 to 50 mph are expected mainly across the higher elevations of eastern Elko county and eastern White Pine county this afternoon and early evening associated with the passage of the frontal boundary. Across mainly northern and western portion of the CWA including Humboldt, western Elko, Lander and portions of Eureka counties today, there will be a 15 to 40% chance of rain along with a 15% chance of thunderstorms.

The upper level low off BC will continue to drift SE toward Nevada tonight, with strong jet energy associated with the approaching low moving over northern and central NV Saturday. Highs on Saturday will cool into the 60s to low 70s, however winds Saturday afternoon and evening will be the main concern with gusts of 30 to 50 mph likely in most valleys. Slightly stronger winds across the higher terrain.

The timing and track of the approaching upper level low today through Saturday afternoon remains fairly consistent with previous guidance, with the system still expected to be centered over the Intermountain West and Great Basin region by Saturday evening. Much cooler Saturday night through Sunday night. Lows each night are expected to dip into the low to mid 30s for most valley locations. Local areas such as Ruby Valley and Clover valley east of the Ruby Mountains as well as higher elevation valleys across Elko County may see temperatures dip into the low 30s or even upper 20s Sunday morning. With the upper level low centering over northern NV Sunday night, low temperatures overnight into Monday morning may drop into the low 30s to upper 20s across most of Elko county and also throughout many valleys across central NV. Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning temperatures levels are looking more likely Saturday night and Sunday night.

The upper level low over the Intermountain West and Great Basin weakens early next week, however general trough energy remains over the region. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer early next week with highs in the 70s Monday, reaching mid to upper 80s by Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in breezy conditions today, then breezy to windy conditions on Saturday. Still some uncertainty however as to whether or not winds this afternoon will reach advisory levels in valley locations across eastern Elko and eastern White Pine counties. Moderate to high confidence in low temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night reaching upper 20s to mid 30s across much of the region. No changes were made to the NBM guidance today.

AVIATION

A cold front will pass from NW to SE across the region today, resulting in increasing and lowering clouds through the day. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across mainly northern and west-central NV today, with a 25-40% chance of showers and a 15% chance of TS at KWMC, KBAM and KEKO. West to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 are expected across the entire region this afternoon and early evening. Stronger winds are expected on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front will pass from NW to SE across the region today, bringing increasing and lowering clouds along with gusty west to southwest winds to all zones. There will also be a 15 to 40 percent chance of rain along with a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms behind the frontal boundary through this afternoon, mainly across zones 437, 438, 469 and 424, then into portions of zone 427 later this afternoon and early evening. Any thunderstorms that may develop today would like be a mix of wet and dry. Light rain shower activity lingers generally north of Interstate 80 this evening and overnight. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Fire Weather Zones 425, 426, 427 and 470 today due to gusty winds and low humidities.

Much cooler on Saturday with stronger winds for all zones as an upper level low approaching from the Pacific NW begins to move in across the Great Basin region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday will again be mainly confined to areas north of Interstate 80. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening due to strong winds and low RHs across zones 425, 426 and 427. Elevated to critical wind and RH conditions are expected across the southern third of FWZ470 Saturday, with much higher RHs across the northern portions of that zone.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning through 11 PM this evening for NVZ 425, 426, 427, and 470

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NVZ 425, 426, 427