textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening across mainly Eastern Elko County

* Smoke from areas fires causing visibility and respiratory issues over northern NV today

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Smoke from regional wildfires will continue to impact visibility across portions of northern and east-central Nevada today, and may create respiratory issues for some.

Storm activity on Tuesday will be confined to mainly the UT border and extreme northeastern corner of Elko County. Monsoon moisture is slowly being shunted eastward as the HPC over the Panhandles continues to deepen and expand through the week. There exists a low chance of storm activity over the UT border again Wednesday afternoon but beyond mid week the availability of moisture really becomes cutoff as the HPC expands westward. A prolonged heat event is anticipated with probabilities of temperatures greater than 100F climbing above 75% for local climate sites Friday through Sunday. Long-term guidance keeps the HPC and hot, dry conditions over the region well into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High pressure builds in smoke both today and through the week causing visibility and respiratory issues as area wildfire activity continues. High confidence exists in the warming trend expected later this week that will bring major HeatRisk to the region by Friday and the weekend.

AVIATION

MVFR/IFR conditions may occur at KWMC, KEKO, KENV, and KELY Terminals today due to smoke from ongoing area wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast when smoke is not lowering VIS values. Afternoon west-southwest winds will gust at all terminals this afternoon from 15-25KTs. There is a 30 percent chance of -TSRA at KENV this afternoon and early evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across portions of eastern Nevada this afternoon, with a 10% chance in zones 425 and 469, and a 25% chance in zone 470. Storms will diminish into the mid to late evening hours. South to West winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph are expected this afternoon. Relative humidity recoveries tonight into Wednesday morning will be in the 35-50% range across most of FW Zones 438, 469 and 470, where wildfires continue to burn.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.