textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to slowly diminish in coverage from west to east across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening through Wednesday * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening across northeastern Nevada with the highest probability over Elko county. From remote observation platforms, these storms have had been a mix of mostly wet with a few dry ones out there with storm speeds of 10 to 15 mph. Look for lows in the 50s and 60s tonight.

By Wednesday, models are showing the drier mass continuing its eastward push into the region. Precipitable water values will drop to a half-inch or less with the highest values across portions of Elko and WHite Pine counties, east to the border with Utah (greater than a half inch). Consequently, the highest chances for isolated showers and wet/dry thunderstorms will again be in northeastern Elko county. Highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday through the weekend. All models are showing the upper ridge retrograding to the west on Thursday before moving back east and building during the early weekend period. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. On Thursday, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but warming to the mid 90s to low 100s on Friday, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed of portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. Low to moderate confidence exists for PoP coverage tomorrow. Moderate to high confidence on upper ridge build late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday and the weekend.

AVIATION

ISOLD -TSRA are expected across northeastern Nevada through the evening. Best chances for VCTS is at the KEKO and KENV terminals. Winds will generally light below 20 knots, though outflow wind gusts could reach 35 knots. Rapid reductions to CIGS/VSBY to MVFR are possible with the strongest storms. Expect additional storms tomorrow across mainly northeast Nevada with KEKO and KENV terminals with VCTS. VFR conditions will persist at all other locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible

AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue.

FIRE WEATHER

A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of northern and central Nevada through the evening. Coverage is expected to diminish tomorrow with wet/dry thunderstorms mainly over portions of Elko county. By Thursday and Friday, afternoon temperatures will begin to soar into the triple digits by the weekend bringing moderate HeatRisk to the area.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.