textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through Thursday

* Moderate to Major Heat Risk for Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return starting Friday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridge over the four corners continues expanding its footprint in the upper level flow through Thursday. However, daily shower and thunderstorm chances are still possible even as the first part of the short term trend drier, but chances are very low at 10% to 20% through Thursday. The locations with the best chance to see a isolated storm will be far eastern NV along the UT border Wednesday, and far NE Elko County along the ID border Thursday. By Friday a upper trough is forecast to dig south over the northern west coast, this trough while having no impact on Nevada, will flatten the western part of the ridge, and push the ridge itself east over New Mexico as it lifts into the PNW and western Canada. As the ridge flattens a return to southerly upper level flow is expected, allowing for another batch of monsoon moisture to be pulled north into Nevada. Models show this flow pattern persisting well into the following week giving Nevada a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours starting Friday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday of next week. It is important to note that there will be a low chance for dry thunder, even as forecasts show a high preference for wet storm modes. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds. This will return daytime highs back into the low 90s to triple digits for many with heat headlines possible for parts of Elko, N Eureka, and N Lander Counties as overnight lows look to remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Friday into next week, the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s with lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons with W to SW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with occasional gusts up to 30 MPH possible. For the weekend and into the new week winds shift more to the S to SW but speeds during the afternoons look to be similar.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for chances of warming temperatures through Thursday afternoon, with heat headlines possible for SE Elko county.

There low confidence for a 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for eastern Nevada through Thursday afternoon.

There is moderate confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada.

AVIATION

FR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Wednesday evening. Winds will be out of the west to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. There will be a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of KELY and KENV Wednesday evening, but direct terminal impacts of lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds up to 45KT are not expected.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of breezy afternoon winds, warming temperatures, low RH, and a very low 10% to 20% chance for isolated thunderstorms mainly for far eastern NV will keep elevated fire weather concerns through Thursday evening. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lighting strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Although dry thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday as well. Friday afternoon the ridge will shift east allowing for southerly flow to return monsoonal moisture to the region with cooling temperatures and daily 20% to 50% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms which will lower fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.