textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather conditions for Friday and Saturday

* Temperatures continue a slow cool down that will last through the weekend

* Storm system moves through NE Nevada Sunday into Monday, bringing gusty winds, and chances for valley rain and mountain snow showers.

* Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing beginning tonight and continuing into early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

Zonal flow will bring quiet weather conditions with cooling temperatures through Saturday for the Silver state. High temperatures will start in the mid 70s to mid 80s Friday afternoon, falling to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Saturday afternoon. Strong late season upper level trough will dig south from Canada through MT/ID Saturday. By Sunday this trough will push into northern NV and exit central NV Monday morning. This system looks to bring stronger winds Sunday morning lasting into Monday morning as west winds shift out of the N with speeds of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH possible. Much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday afternoon with highs in the mid 40s to low 60s possible. The main question with this system will be for precipitation chances. Confidence is low however as models continue to be split with how much moisture will be in the atmosphere over the weekend with some models indicating precipitable water values below 0.3 inches. Given the track of the trough, much of the precipitation is expected to fall over eastern portions of Nevada in Elko and White Pine Counties. Accumulation amounts expected to be light in the valleys, but still see upwards of 50-70% of up to 0.02 inches of rain, while higher elevations and mountains above 6000 feet will start seeing snow as snow levels drop before the precipitation arrives. Overnight, rain will transition to snow with snow levels dropping around 4000 feet. Snow accumulations in the valleys not expected to be much with values ranging from a trace to 0.1 inches, while passes and summits along eastern I-80 and north of the interstate, up to 1 inch of snow. Jarbidge Wilderness Area, Ruby Mountains, and mountain ranges in White Pine County could see up to 1-3 inches of fresh snow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for cooling temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.

There is high confidence for gusty to strong winds across central NV and the higher elevation of northern Nevada Sunday.

There is moderate confidence in the possibility of isolated to scattered showers for eastern Nevada Sunday morning through Monday morning.

There is moderate confidence in the possibility of accumulating snowfall for mountain and pass elevations above 6000 feet Sunday through Monday morning.

AVIATION

VFR conditions remain in place through Saturday afternoon under mostly sunny and clear skies with a few high level clouds overhead at times. Winds will again be generally light to breezy through Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet weather conditions this afternoon with some breezy winds of gusts up to 15-20 mph. Cooling temperature trend through the weekend as an upper trough to the north extends south and clips Nevada. Chances for isolated rain/mountain snow return centered over the eastern zones over the weekend. Strong gusty winds that will shift from the north by Sunday with speeds up to 20-35 mph, gusts as high as 55 mph across all fire zones. No fire weather concerns as RH levels are expected to be above critical thresholds.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-031-035-037-040-041.