textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through tomorrow

* Quieter, cooler weather in store for the weekend

* Storm chances return to northern NV early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Storms are dying down overnight but will return Friday, although much weaker and more spread out. Excessive rainfall remains a marginal threat, along with localized flash flooding.

The upper level trough that has been driving these storms lifts out of Nevada for the weekend with southwest flow taking its place. This is expected to mostly cut off the moisture flow and result in a dry weekend. Models still cant agree on the forecast for next week, with the sticking point being the path of an upper level low pressure center. The further south solution would see it clip northern Nevada and would be a much cooler and potentially wetter solution than the one keeping it near the Canadian border, however it is not clear which solution is more likely at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Moderate confidence in a dry weekend. Low confidence in the forecast for thunderstorms to start next week. No changes from the NBM.

AVIATION

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours but short duration visibilities as low as 2SM have been reported with heavy rainfall and continue to pose a threat at all sites. Strong erratic winds are also expected with thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

No significant changes from the previous forecast. Wind driven elevated conditions are still anticipated for portions of zone 437 while all other zones are focused on heavy rainfall and associated runoff and debris flow potential. Widespread rainfall continues Friday, though coverage is more confined to the eastern half of the state, before mostly drying out for Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.