textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm weather this weekend

* Cooling trend Monday through Thursday

* Valley rain and mountain snow likely Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are sunny to mostly sunny across northern and central Nevada at this time. Not too much is expected in the short term as a dry pattern remains over the forecast area. Overnight lows for tonight through Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s with high temperatures Sunday and Monday afternoon climbing into the 60s and 70s.

All models are depicting an upper level low pressure system diving to the south from the Pacific Northwest states to just off the coast of western California by Tuesday. Light valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected to develop during the latter portions of the morning and afternoon. Winds will be breezy to locally windy with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Highs will be several degrees cooler with readings in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A slow forward progression is in store for this storm system as it tries to move east across northern and central Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are again possible both days. The estimated three day forecast amounts for precipitation and snowfall are coming in around one-half to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall in the valleys with one to four inches across the highest elevations in the mountains. Afternoon highs both of these days will be in the 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

The system may be exiting east by the latter portions of the week. Highs will remain on the cool side with readings in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the short term grids as NBM is handling the forecast well. Confidence in the forecast remains high through Monday. Confidence continues to be moderate with respect to the precipitation and temperature forecast next week. Low confidence on the chances of a cold front late next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the next 24 hours. No precipitation in the forecast through Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are expected to persist across northern and central Nevada through the weekend as a stagnant pattern remains over the Desert Southwest. Winds will be light, no precipitation is expected, and minimum relative humidity values will be in the teens or higher. An east Pacific storm system will be diving to the south by Tuesday and be situated off the western coast of California. South to southwest winds will be on the increase Tuesday with gusts up to 40 mph across central Nevada. Minimum relative humidity values will be on the rise with readings at or above twenty percent across fire zone 437 to thirty-five to forty-five percent over fire zones 425, 426, and 427. Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected to develop later Tuesday, lasting through the latter portions of the week. Afternoon highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Minimum relative humidity values will be very high, at or above thirty percent. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts to 20 mph.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.