textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low shower and storm chances today for far eastern portions of NV

* Smoke from areas fires causing visibility and respiratory issues over northern NV today

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current radar and satellite imagery depicts reflectivity over northeastern White Pine and eastern Elko Counties this afternoon. Lingering monsoonal moisture over the eastern NV border combined with sufficient CAPE values (150-300 J/kg) is helping keep activity over the region through Monday evening. Showers and storms are relatively quick moving from southwest to northeast so rainfall amounts are forecast to be fairly light. Biggest impacts will be new fire starts from lightning strikes and gusty erratic winds that will aggravate existing fire behavior.

Speaking of fires, smoke from ongoing wildfires in Elko County and southern Idaho will continue to impact visibility in the area and create respiratory issues for some. Southwest flow today is helping push smoke from ID out of northern NV this afternoon and evening. Overnight northerly flow will help smoke filter back into northern NV leading to a smoky Tuesday morning sunrise.

Storm activity on Tuesday will be confined to mainly the UT border and extreme northeastern corner of Elko County. Monsoon moisture is slowly be shunted eastward as the HPC over the Panhandles continues to deepen and expand through the week. There exists a low chance of storm activity over the UT border again Wednesday afternoon but beyond mid week the availability of moisture really becomes cutoff as the HPC expands westward. A prolonged heat event is anticipated with probabilities of temperatures greater than 100F climbing above 75% for local climate sites Friday through Sunday. Long-term guidance keeps the HPC and hot, dry conditions over the region well into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence exists in shower and storm activity over eastern NV today. High confidence builds in smoke both today and through the week causing visibility and respiratory issues as area wildfire activity continues. High confidence exists in the warming trend expected later this week that will bring major HeatRisk to the region by Friday and the weekend.

AVIATION

MVFR/IFR conditions may occur at KWMC, KEKO, KENV, and KELY terminals Monday and Tuesday due to smoke from ongoing area wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast when smoke is not lowering VIS values. Afternoon west-southwest winds will gust at all terminals Monday afternoon from 20-25KTs. Winds are forecast to diminish Monday evening after sunset. A low percent chance of -TSRA is possible at KELY and KENV Monday afternoon. Winds in and around TS activity will briefly be gusty and erratic.

FIRE WEATHER

A low percentage chance of storm activity exists Monday afternoon mainly over FWZ 425/470 through Monday evening. This activity is tapping into lingering monsoon moisture so storm nature should be more wet than dry. Storm motion, however, is relatively quick mitigating effects of precipitation. Impacts will be new fire starts from lightning strikes and erratic fire behavior for existing fires from gusty outflow winds in and near storms. Otherwise, west-southwest flow at 10-15 mph is expected across all fire weather zones through Monday evening with gusts between 20-25 mph. Tuesday storm activity will be confined to northern portions of FWZ 470.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033.