textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong, gusty winds in Central Nevada today

* Precipitation and mountain snow chances today through Monday along with cooler temperatures

* Snow chances increase tonight into Monday morning

* Fair weather Tuesday followed by another weather event over northern Nevada Wednesday through Thursday

* Fair weather returns with warming temperatures Friday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Ongoing unsettled weather is expected to continue to bring precipitation and snow chances across northern and central Nevada through Monday. Much cooler temperatures today with freezing levels aloft will produce rain/snow mix at times this afternoon along the valleys yet is not expected to accumulate as surface temperatures reach into the 40s. Strong gusty winds this afternoon with speeds up to 15-25 mph, gusts 25-35 mph across the CWA with stronger winds over central Nevada with speeds up to 20-30 mph, gusts 40-50 mph is expected to dissipate this evening with winds dropping below 10 mph. Overnight, temperatures drop to below freezing with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet by early Monday morning, allowing snow to accumulate in the valleys. Accumulations remain light with valleys below 1 inch expected, however up to 1-2 inches possible over higher passes and summits (up to 2-3 inches possible along US-50). Precipitation will continue throughout Monday until the afternoon as the low pressure system that is bringing in the unsettled weather will exit out of Nevada to the east. Some lingering chances for rain and mountain snow still expected overnight.

Tuesday, fair weather conditions return over Nevada with light winds and temperatures warming back into the 60s. This brief break in weather is expected to be short lived as another round of weather is expected to impact northern Nevada Wednesday, and push southeastward towards White Pine County by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation and mountain snow chances increase for northern Nevada and White Pine County. Winds are expected to elevate with the passing front across the entire CWA with speeds up to 15-25 mph, gusts 25-35 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures are expected to drop below normal again with highs in the 50s Wednesday, then into the 40s by Thursday. Valley snow is expected to be very light, up to 1 inch as much of the precipitation will have passed by the time snow levels drop below 5000 feet across northern Nevada. White Pine County may see a little more snow in the valleys, with an inch or two as more precipitation is expected over the county by the time the cooler temperatures hit. By Thursday evening, the front will exit out of Nevada to the east, leaving calmer weather conditions behind with low temperatures in the teens. Friday, expected temperatures to remain below normal in the 40s. By the weekend models still show discrepancies on zonal flow or upper ridging, but remain consistent with warmer temperatures as highs are expected to reach back into the upper 60s by Sunday along with lighter winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of precipitation and mountain snow today through Monday. Moderate confidence of valley snow tonight. High confidence for strong gusty winds today. High confidence for fair weather Tuesday. Moderate confidence for another round of unsettling weather impacting northern Nevada and White Pine County Wednesday through Thursday. Moderate confidence of warmer temperatures returning over the weekend. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

AVIATION

Periods of VCSH and -SHRA over all terminals today. Cooler temperatures aloft may still produce -SN conditions for KELY this afternoon. VFR conditions dominant but periods of MVFR or lower conditions possible with passing storms. Strong southwesterly/westerly winds this afternoon up to 15-20 kts, gusts 25-30 kts across all terminals with stronger winds over KELY at 20-30 kts, gusts 30-40 kts. Winds are expected to dissipate to below 10 kts this evening across all terminals. The cooler temperatures are expected to transition shower activities to snow overnight with some snow showers possible over all terminals except for KTPH, however probabilities are low so will remain out of the TAFs at this time. CIG levels will slightly improve this evening but remain between FL050 to FL100 with some passing storms dropping back to FL030-FL040 at times.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ035.