textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 5-10% this afternoon and early evening; 10-15% chance tomorrow

* Highs today in the 80s, trending cooler mid-week

* Gusty SW winds this afternoon across Humboldt County

* Gusty winds Tuesday; strongest across central NV

* Unsettled weather Tuesday through at least Friday

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Increasing southwesterly flow over western Nevada today as a trough of low pressure to the northwest pushes into Nevada. Winds of up to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 30-45 mph over Humboldt County this afternoon while the rest of Nevada will have generally lighter winds. Increasing mid-level moisture as PWAT values reach up to 0.4-0.5 inches are resulting in seeing thunderstorm chances again this afternoon, yet CAPE values are coming in lower than yesterday, resulting in only a 5-10% chance across the region (15-20% over Jarbidge Wilderness Area along the state border). Precipitation is not expected as the lower levels are dry with little mixing, seeing mainly virga today.

Tomorrow, the low pressure system will have moved over Nevada with the central portion over the state. The associated cold front will push through northern and central Nevada by the afternoon, bringing in cooler and wetter conditions, increasing precipitation chances across the region. Ahead of the front, southerly/southwesterly flow will increase with speeds reaching up to 20-30 mph, gusts as high as 45-50 mph across central Nevada in the afternoon. High temperatures expected to cool into the 70s however behind the front, temperatures cooling into the 50s to 60s. Overnight, temperatures drop to just above freezing across the region. Precipitation is expected to be rain in the valleys with mountain snow as snow levels drop to just around 7500 feet, however higher elevations and passes cannot be ruled out at this time for snow accumulations. Latest model runs showing slight increase to precipitation amounts with passes and summits along US-50 seeing up to a trace to one inch of snow overnight.

Wednesday through Friday, upper ridging towards the central CONUS will stall the low pressure's movement, keeping it centered over Nevada. Precipitation chances continue across the region through Thursday, becoming more localized across northern Nevada by Friday. High temperatures stay cool with highs expected a couple of degrees below normal this time of year in the 60s, yet mountain snow expected to be trending down each day as snow levels stay above 7500 feet. Winds will also be trending down with breezy winds over eastern Nevada Wednesday, becoming light winds across the region Thursday and Friday as the low remains centered over the state.

Saturday, the system will push north merging into a longwave trough over Canada. Chances for some lingering showers remain across the state in the morning, but probabilities remain low below 20% for any wetting rain. By the afternoon, quiet weather conditions return. Warming temperature trend starting Saturday with highs back into the 70s. By Monday, temperatures expected to reach back into the 80s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of strong gusty winds over Humboldt County this afternoon. Moderate confidence for building dry thunderstorms across the state today. High confidence for strong gusty winds over central Nevada with moderate confidence of active weather Tuesday with the passing cold front. Moderate confidence the low pressure remains over Nevada through Friday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period. CIG levels will start to lower in the afternoon as mid- level moisture and light CAPE will develop cloud buildup around FL100-FL120. 5-10% of thunderstorm development today across the state. Outflow wind gusts from thunderstorms that develop could reach up to 45 mph. South/southwest winds this afternoon will generally be between 15-25 kts, however stronger winds expected over KWMC today with gusts reaching up to 30-35 kts. Gusty winds may result in blowing dust which could lower VIS below 6SM.

FIRE WEATHER

South to southwest winds at 10-15 mph, gusts up to 20-30 across most zones today with the exception of NW Nevada seeing gusts up to 35-45 mph especially over zone 437 as a low pressure system begins to make its way over Nevada. Red Flag warning for strong winds and low RH remains in effect for zone 437 today until 11 pm. Increasing mid-level moisture with some weak instability across Nevada giving a 5-10% chance for isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon. Tomorrow, stronger winds will shift more towards central Nevada as the storm front moves over Nevada resulting in stronger winds with gusts up to 45-50 mph over zones 425 and 426. Wind Advisory is in effect for those zones on Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions over those zones as RH values drop below 15%, however fuel moisture remains above critical threshold.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 12PM PDT Monday through 11PM PDT Monday for NVZ437.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ035-041.