textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through tomorrow

* Quieter weather and below normal temperatures in store for the weekend

* Warming to near normal temperatures by mid week

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The forecast remains on track into the weekend as storm activity winds down over the region. The trough exit on Saturday will result in a much more stable atmosphere, but weak storm potential does persist in far eastern Nevada.

Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be dry, with a slow warming trend due to developing ridging over the West. This will result in high temperatures just below normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s. While model agreement has increased significantly for the first half of the week, the forecast for late week remains variable, with disagreement focusing on the timing of a West Coast trough impact. The slower solution would maintain warm and dry conditions through next weekend while the faster solution would bring cooler temperatures and storm potential as early as Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in weakening storms by Saturday. Moderate confidence in dry weather and near normal temperatures through Wednesday. Low confidence past Wednesday. No changes from the NBM.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Saturday afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusts on Saturday afternoon will range 18-25 KTs at KELY, KTPH, KWMC, and KBAM.

FIRE WEATHER

Thunderstorm activity across the region will wind down this weekend with only isolated storm activity Saturday afternoon over fire weather zones 425/426/427. Lingering monsoonal moisture will keep storm activity more wet than dry. Quieter weather sets up over the area beyond Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.