textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend through Sunday

* High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon about ten degrees above normal for this time of year

* Next round of weather expected Tuesday with a cold front from the north, bringing returning chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures

* Strong winds return over Nevada Tuesday afternoon from a passing cold front

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Quiet weather conditions with some breezy afternoon winds today through Monday. Temperatures will gradually warm each day with high temperatures reaching up to 10 degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday. Models are showing a buildup of moisture across Nevada due to mid-level moisture over the state. This will cause afternoon clouds to form to give partly cloudy conditions. By Sunday, models are showing a slight buildup of moisture across northeastern Nevada that may lead to increasing clouds with the low potential for some isolated showers across Jarbidge Wilderness Area. Probabilities are low at this time as the buildup in moisture happens for a short period in the afternoon with a 30% chance of seeing up to 0.04 inches of rain.

By Tuesday, models are showing the next round of weather expected to impact Nevada as a low pressure system over the northwest will push into the silver state, bringing returning chances for precipitation and much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will begin to drop by Tuesday morning over northwestern Nevada, making high temperatures reach into the 60s in areas such as Denio, while the rest of the region will be just slightly above normal in the 70s. Probabilities for precipitation is low at this time with chances between 15-25% across the region, much of the precipitation will start from the northwest moving southeast, producing light accumulations of valley rain up to 0.05-0.1 inches of rain. Snow is expected to stay in the mountains as snow levels are expected to drop below 8000 feet, and remain above 7000 feet during the event. High winds expected from the passing front in the afternoon with increasing probabilities of wind gusts reaching up to 30-45 mph across central Nevada. Winds are expected to dissipate by the evening with light showers lasting through the night and into Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to move east out of the state leaving calmer weather conditions behind, with cooler temperatures as highs will only be in the 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of quiet weather conditions and temperatures warming to above normal through Monday. Moderate confidence for the next round of weather impacting Nevada on Tuesday with much cooler temperatures. Low confidence of periods of precipitation Tuesday.

AVIATION

Dry with VFR conditions at all TAF terminals today. Increasing mid-level clouds late this morning through the early evening hours across much of central NV including KTPH and KELY where CIGs are expected to lower to around FL100. Otherwise periods of SCT-BKN FL200 across much of northern and central NV today. Northwest winds this afternoon generally 10-15G15-30KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

A weak system dropping through Idaho today will clip eastern NV, the result of which will be northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 15 to 30 mph this afternoon. Weak instability across portions of central NV this afternoon will produce mostly cloudy skies for most of FWZs 425 426 and 427 into the early evening hours. While not expecting any thunderstorms today, there is a 5% chance of thunderstorms and a 10-15% chance of very light showers across these three central NV zones.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.