textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Continuing snow showers through tonight

* Quiet weather and warming temperatures for Friday and the weekend

* Moderate confidence for winter weather returning next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Snow showers are ongoing in central Nevada and are expected to spread north by tonight as part of the final wave associated with the upper level trough impacting the West. Showers are expected to persist through the very early morning hours before clearing by mid morning. Overnight temperatures will be very chilly, in the teens and single digits for both tonight and tomorrow night. Starting tomorrow, a ridge builds across the West, sandwiched between the outgoing trough and a low pressure center off the Canadian coast. This will allow temperatures to begin to rise, from highs in the 20s and 30s tomorrow to the 40s and 50s by Monday. Similarly, overnight lows warm to the 20s and 30s by Monday.

Starting Monday the forecast gets less clear cut. The upper low off the coast looks like its going to meander around in the Pacific for a while, however in the process it helps funnel Pacific moisture into the West. There are also signs for a shortwave or two to accompany this moisture, which would assist in precipitation. The question now is twofold: how much of this moisture makes it past the Sierras and into Nevada, and how reliable is model guidance regarding timing and location. Moisture availability still looks questionable at best, with northern Nevada looking more favorable than central Nevada. Model guidance is also still having consistency issues, most notably regarding timing where one solution favors a Tuesday start while another favors a faster approach and a Monday start.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for precipitation ending by tomorrow with dry conditions and warming temperatures behind it. Moderate confidence for a second system early next week, however timing and impacts remain low confidence. QPF values were bringing this system in too fast compared to the usual set of reliable guidance and as such have been reduced, especially in Central Nevada. No other grid changes were made.

AVIATION

Intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through Friday morning as another weather system increases SHSN activity over central and northern NV Thursday evening into Friday morning. In and around shower activity visibility will drop to degraded flight rule conditions. General CIG levels at all terminals will be at or below 1500FT this evening and tomorrow at all NV terminals. KENV CIGs will lower after midnight tonight. Southerly wind gusts at KTPH and KELY Thursday afternoon and evening will range 22-25KTs until after sunset Thursday evening.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday NVZ030-034>041.