textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow continues thru Friday.

* Isolated thunderstorms expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. A few may be severe on Thursday.

* Much cooler Friday and Friday night, followed by a modest warming trend thru Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level low centered off the California coast continues to push moisture into the Great Basin even as it meanders east. Current radar imagery shows the majority of the showers and thunderstorms in Utah and Arizona, however development closer to home is expected to begin within the next hour. Thunderstorms continue through tomorrow night and a few may even become severe, with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms covering White Pine, southeastern Elko and northeastern Nye Counties for tomorrow. Showers will continue through Friday evening, particularly in eastern Nevada, and some high elevation snow mixes in beginning Thursday night as snow levels drop from around 10,000 feet to around 7,000 feet. Valley snow accumulation is not expected. Road accumulation is also not expected, with the exception of Mountain City Highway near the Idaho border, which could see about half an inch Thursday night into Friday. Total liquid equivalent accumulation through Friday evening is between a third and three quarters of an inch, with some mountain tops reaching one inch.

The upper low center is expected to be over northwest Arizona by Friday night, putting Northeastern Nevada under a cold and dry northeast flow. Friday night is the coldest night of the forecast, with lows in the 20s across the area. Temperatures rebound somewhat as the low exits the Southwest but they remain slightly below seasonal, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and embedded thunderstorms through tomorrow night. Moderate confidence in high elevation snow Thursday night and Friday. High confidence in near seasonal temperatures beyond Friday. PoPs were increased and expanded to better reflect the incoming precipitation event.

AVIATION

Increasing showers and thunderstorm activity are expected to impact all sites through the next 24 hours, although flight categories are not expected to be affected. Strong gusty winds up to 25KT are expected at KELY and KTPH this afternoon, and short lived erratic gusty winds are possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will be low for the next several days as a large upper level storm system bring periods of wetting rains and mountain snows across Nevada. Precipitation chances will rise from south to north as several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight with coverage increasing Thursday. Cooler air will filter into the region Thursday night as the heart of the upper trough passes overhead which will bring snow levels down to about 7000 feet by Friday morning. This system will then lift northeast into the northern Rockies Saturday allowing high pressure to re- build over the west which will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions for Nevada through next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.