textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm both this afternoon.

* Strong wind gusts Friday and Friday night.

* Periods of precipitation Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. * Periods of precipitation Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the southwest will keep the dry, warm air over Nevada this afternoon as highs are expected to be a few degrees above normal. Winds in northern Nevada will be generally light, while central Nevada will see some breezy southeasterly winds this afternoon.

Tomorrow, a series of upper level troughs will move into the western CONUS that will bring in strong gusty winds over central and northern Nevada throughout the day and into the evening. Winds expected to be from the south at 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35-45 mph. By the afternoon, the upper level troughs will have pushed moisture into Nevada which will give increasing chances for precipitation and mountain snow. Snow levels will start just above 8000 feet, but during the evening and overnight hours, snow levels are expected to drop below 6000 feet as cooler air begins to move in, letting some accumulating snowfall over the high passes and summits. Here are the probabilities of summits receiving half an inch or more of snow over 24 hours:

Adobe Summit - 20% Emigrant Pass - 20% Secret Pass - 50% Pequop Summit - 50% Austin Summit - 90% Bob Scotts Summit - 90% Garden Pass - 90% Hickison Summit - 15% Pinto Summit - 55% Connors Pass - 55% Murry Summit - 35% Robinson Summit - 45%

There will be a brief lull in weather Saturday afternoon through Sunday, followed by another weather system expected to impact Nevada Monday through Tuesday that will bring additional periods of precipitation and mountain snow. The second system is also expected to bring in much cooler air with high temperatures reaching near, or just a few degrees below normal. Overnight lows dropping into the 20s with some areas expected to see lows in the teens. After the second system, model guidance is showing increasing confidence of a third weather system moving into the western CONUS by Wednesday afternoon and lasting through next Thursday. Temperatures expected to stay on a cooling trend with highs reaching several degrees below normal in the 40s.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. General light winds expected over the northern terminals while winds at the central terminals expected to increase from the south/southeast at 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday NVZ030-031-033>041.