textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong high pressure will build over the area this week.

* Warming temperatures will commence Monday and last through the week.

* Near record to record high temperatures are expected across the region Tuesday, with record high temperatures likely afterward.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing mainly high clouds moving through the area from the north. Expect this to continue tonight with lows in the 30s.

Models continue to show an upper level ridge out in the eastern Pacific. This feature will continue to strengthen over the upcoming week. In addition, model simulations show this ridge moving east a little each day. This will result in rapid warm up for northern and central Nevada with dry conditions.

That rapid warmup starts tomorrow as the center of the upper ridge circulation remains off the coast of California and in the eastern Pacific. There will be some afternoon breeziness with gusts to 25 mph across portions of central and northeastern Nevada. Other locations will see light winds. Highs tomorrow will warm to above normal with readings in the 60s and 70s. Quiet, calm conditions will reign during the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

On Tuesday, upper level ridging is forecast to intensify as model solutions slow its eastward progression. Heights will rise over northern and central Nevada as a result. Winds are expected to remain light. High temperature forecast over the area shows readings exceeding the records for the day for the five climate sites. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 75 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Tuesday:

Austin - 15% Battle Mountain - 100% Elko - 70% Ely - 25% Eureka - 10% Jackpot - 55% Jarbidge - 1% Owyhee - 65% Ruth - 0% Spring Creek - 20% Tonopah - 96% Wells - 25% West Wendover - 70% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 97%

It will be another clear and quiet night Tuesday as the ridge remains in place over the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

More record temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon as models show the strong upper ridge sitting over southern California and western Arizona. Winds will remain well below advisory criteria with afternoon breezes to 25 mph. Again, forecast high temperatures are several degrees greater than previously set daily records. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 80 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Wednesday:

Austin - 20% Battle Mountain - 100% Elko - 75% Ely - 20% Eureka - 25% Jackpot - 45% Jarbidge - 0% Owyhee - 35% Ruth - 3% Spring Creek - 25% Tonopah - 75% Wells - 25% West Wendover - 65% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 95%

It is expected to be almost summer-like temperature-wise Wednesday night as lows only cool to the 40s and 50s with light winds and no appreciable weather.

More of the same is expected Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern over northern and central Nevada. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with intermittent gusts to 20 mph. Otherwise, look for more daily record high temperatures with readings in the 70s and 80s. Here are some probabilities for high temperatures greater than 80 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada for Thursday:

Austin - 55% Battle Mountain - 100% Elko - 90% Ely - 70% Eureka - 60% Jackpot - 70% Jarbidge - 15% Owyhee - 70% Ruth - 15% Spring Creek - 70% Tonopah - 90% Wells - 85% West Wendover - 75% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 96%

At this time, models are showing the area remaining under the control of the upper ridge which means additional afternoon high temperature records are possible. Readings will continue into the 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph are possible both days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the NBM forecast.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the next 24 hour period. Intermittent after gusts to 25KT can be expected tomorrow afternoon, especially across the central TAF sites of KTPH and KELY.

CLIMATE

Confidence is high with regards to a strong upper level ridge building over the southwestern United States this week. This will bring well above normal temperatures with highs eventually climbing into the 80s. Multiple, prolonged daily record high temperatures look increasingly likely later this week. Near record high temperatures are also possible on March 16. Here are the current set of records for the five climate sites across northern and central Nevada from March 16-21. Also included are the current forecast high for each site for the day:

March 16: Forecast High KEKO: 72/2015 68 KELY: 73/2007 65 KP68: 75/2007 68 KTPH: 76/2007 75 KWMC: 76/2007 71

March 17: KEKO: 75/2007 77 KELY: 73/2007 76 KP68: 75/2007 77 KTPH: 76/2017 81 KWMC: 79/2007 81

March 18: KEKO: 78/1910 83 KELY: 71/2007 82 KP68: 74/2004 83 KTPH: 75/2007 85 KWMC: 76/2004 84

March 19: KEKO: 74/1997 83 KELY: 73/1908 84 KP68: 74/1997 84 KTPH: 75/2004 86 KWMC: 79/1997 85

March 20: KEKO: 76/2004 85 KELY: 76/2004 84 KP68: 79/2004 83 KTPH: 79/2004 86 KWMC: 79/2004 85

March 21: KEKO: 78/2004 81 KELY: 76/2004 80 KP68: 79/2004 80 KTPH: 79/2004 83 KWMC: 80/2004 82

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.