textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record heat today with highs in the mid to upper 90s

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday over mainly White Pine county

* Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Sunday due to gusty winds and low humidity, strongest winds on Saturday

* Much cooler this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Above average temperatures continue today as southwest flow continues over Nevada. Temperatures decrease slightly for tomorrow as a weak trough passes northern Nevada. Increasing moisture and instability with the trough may also spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms in White Pine county. This trough exits for Thursday but continued northwest flow ahead of a second, much stronger trough is expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Impacts from the second trough begin on Friday, with strong winds triggering a Fire Weather Watch across all but the furthest northwestern part of the coverage area. A significant cooling trend is expected with this system, with high temperatures only reaching the 50s in sections of northern Nevada by Sunday. This system is also a wetter one, with showers and thunderstorms forecast for northern Nevada Friday through Sunday. Central Nevada has less than a 10% chance of seeing any storms, but will still benefit from the cooldown, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s by Sunday. Model variance increases significantly after Sunday, but the current favored solution features zonal flow, which would dry things out and allow temperatures to return to around seasonal, with highs in the 80s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in continued above normal temperatures through Thursday. Low confidence in isolated showers and moderate confidence in isolated thunderstorms tomorrow. High confidence in strong winds on Friday.

AVIATION

Daytime gusty winds up to 25KT will affect all sites except KENV this afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Above average temperatures continue through Thursday, with a cooling trend Friday through Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through Thursday due to low RH values and some afternoon gusty winds. Critical conditions are expected for Friday due to low RH values and winds gusting 35-40 mph, and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Critical conditions also appear likely in central Nevada for Saturday, but confidence is only moderate at this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470