textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms coverage Thursday is expected to be near the Utah border * Temperatures will remain above seasonal values this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: For Thursday, drier air will continue migrating east across the area. Kept isolated showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Nevada. Otherwise, most locations will be on the dry side. Highs will be in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the 50s.

Friday through early next week. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this time frame but temperatures will be warming in response to building heights. The heat is expected to commence on Friday with highs reaching the mid 90s to low 100s, with a few degrees of additional warming on Saturday. Record high temperatures for Elko, Eureka, and Ely may be met during this time. This is leading to minor to moderate HeatRisk impacts across northern and central Nevada with the increasing probability of heat headlines needed for portions of the area through the weekend, including Sunday. Though Sunday could see a degree or two of cooling, the main heat impacts remain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible over the area. Look for additional degrees of cooling Monday and Tuesday as a large and expansive upper ridge dominates the weather across the United States. Models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The PoP, weather, sky and wind grids were adjusted for the short term forecast due to fire weather concerns. High confidence on the upper ridge strengthening late in the week, with high confidence on HeatRisk for Friday through the weekend. Confidence is low on the timing and coverage of storms for early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will persist at all locations. Winds will be light with gusts to 22KT possible.

AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issue.

FIRE WEATHER

Through the rest of the week temperatures continue to rise increasing HeatRisk by the weekend when afternoon highs across all fire weather zones are expected to climb to triple digits.

Elevated fire weather conditions due to winds and low relative humidity are a possibility across northern and portions of central Nevada Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be hot with minimum relative humidity values between 4 and 8%. This will need to be watch for the potential of headline fire products. Lastly, models are showing a southerly fetch of moisture, which will increase the chances for thunderstorms over the forecast area early next week. Will need to continue watching for possible fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.