textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* There is a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada this afternoon and this evening

* There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will be centered over Northwestern Colorado today. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over Southeastern Nevada today, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, in Northeastern Nevada, atmospheric moisture will not be that robust, resulting in less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and this evening. Regardless of coverage, a few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada today. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be localized flooding, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. This will result in a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses. Here are probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in Northern Nevada on Sunday, July 19th, 2026:

Battle Mountain - 97% Winnemucca - 96% Crescent Valley - 96% Carlin - 95% Elko - 85% West Wendover - 70%

The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will move into the South Central United States Monday through Wednesday. This will push monsoonal moisture northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Tuesday, July 21st, 2026:

Ely - 50% Lund - 50% Great Basin National Park - 50% Eureka - 48% Currie - 45% Ruby Lake - 43% Austin - 41% Elko - 36% Wells - 36% West Wendover - 31%

Monsoonal moisture should shift eastward Thursday and Friday, but lingering thunderstorm chances (slight) will remain in the service area forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in Northern Nevada both this afternoon and Monday afternoon. High forecast confidence in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Southeastern Nevada this afternoon and this evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today through at least Wednesday. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours, with the exception of a period of gusty winds up to 20KT at KTPH this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected in the area of KEKO/KENV/KELY again today, and direct terminal impact cant be ruled out. Thunderstorms could cause erratic winds up to 40KT and decreased visibility from heavy rainfall.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening for the next several days. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from earlier this week (especially portions of 470 and 425).

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday NVZ030-031-033-036-038.