textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 10-20% this afternoon and early evening

* Unseasonably warm through Memorial Day

* Gusty SW winds Monday across Humboldt County

* Gusty winds Tuesday across much of northern and central NV

* Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated to scattered showers and a stray thunderstorm or two are currently developing across portions of the forecast area. Little or no precipitation has been reported with these cells and little to none is expected. These cells will continue through this evening, when the loss of daytime heating heating cuts off their energy source. Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s. Tomorrow an upper level low will approach the lower 48, with the center off the Pacific Northwest coast and its outer bands approaching Nevada. Back home, thunderstorms and elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated for northern Nevada, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of Humboldt county for strong winds and low daytime humidity. The low center approaches Nevada for Tuesday and winds only increase ahead of it, with conditions in central Nevada being watched for potential Wind Advisory level winds through much of the day. This system is expected to bring much cooler and wetter conditions as it meanders its way around Nevada through Friday. During this period, daytime temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows hovering near to a few degrees below freezing. Off and on showers will also continue through this time. Precipitation is expected to largely remain as rain at low elevations, with mountain snow, however low elevation snow cannot be ruled out entirely at this time and remains a low probability event. The low finally exits to the east by Saturday and temperatures begin to increase again, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s for the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in convection potential but low confidence in placement for Monday. Moderate to high confidence in the low pressure system and its impacts. Dry convection was added to the short term weather grids to account for convection potential through tomorrow night.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. VCTS will continue through the evening hours across KEKO and KENV terminals with convective wind gusts to 45KT possible with any storm. Isolated -TSRA is expected to develop after 18Z Monday over the KBAM, KEKO, and KENV locations. Probability of thunderstorms is about five percent at KBAM, and fifteen percent at KEKO with ten percent at KENV. Convective wind gusts to 45KT are possible with any storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms continue to develop across the area and are expected to dissipate with the sunset this evening. This pattern continues tomorrow, with adequate moisture and instability expected to support additional isolated daylight driven convection. Additionally, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for zone 437 tomorrow due to wind gusts over 30 mph and minimum RH values hovering around 12%. The strong winds shift to central Nevada for Tuesday, with south/southwest winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph are possible. Cooler temperatures and increasing chances for wetting precipitation are the story Wednesday through Friday, with minimum RH values rising to the 30s or higher. Conditions warm up and dry out for the weekend, but fire weather conditions are expected to remain low.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 12PM PDT Monday through 11PM PDT Monday for NVZ437.