textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend peaks Thursday

* Moderate Heat Risk for Thursday...especially for the low desert of eastern Elko county to include the Wendover area.

* Heat Advisory in effect for SE Elko County Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridge will reach its peak extent this afternoon before it feels the influence of a pacific upper level trough and begins its slow drift east. Once again there will be a low 10% to 20% chance for a mix of wet or dry isolated thunderstorms mainly for NE Elko County. By Friday a upper trough is forecast to dig south over the northern west coast, this trough while having no impact on Nevada, will flatten the western part of the ridge, and push the ridge itself east over New Mexico as the trough lifts into the Pacific NW and western Canada. As the ridge flattens a return to southerly upper level flow is expected, allowing for another batch of monsoon moisture to be pulled north into Nevada. Models show this flow pattern persisting well into the following week giving Nevada a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours starting Friday afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday of next week. It is important to note that there will be a low chance for dry thunder, even as forecasts show a high preference for wet storm modes. Temperatures peak Thursday afternoon with daytime highs back into the low 90s to triple digits and a heat advisory is in effect for SE Elko County where overnight lows will only drop into the mid 70s. Friday into next week, the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s with lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons with W to SW winds of 10 to 20 MPH with occasional gusts up to 30 MPH possible. For the weekend and into the new week winds shift more to the S SW but speeds during the afternoons look to be similar.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for chances very warm temperatures Thursday afternoon, and a heat advisory is in effect for SE Elko county.

There low confidence for a 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for NE Elko County Thursday afternoon.

There is high confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Thursday evening. Winds will be out of the west to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of breezy afternoon winds, warming temperatures, low RH, and a very low 10% to 20% chance for a mix of wet or dry isolated thunderstorms mainly for north eastern Elko County will keep elevated fire weather concerns through Thursday evening. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lighting strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Friday afternoon the ridge will shift east allowing for southerly flow to return monsoonal moisture to the region with cooling temperatures and daily 20% to 50% chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms which will lower fire weather concerns. As it will take time for moisture to make it fully up north, there will be a window for Humboldt County to see elevated fire weather conditions Friday, as there will still be very warm temperatures, and breezy afternoon winds. If timing is slower than forecast for the moisture, a fire weather watch may be needed for zone 437 and possibly 424.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ033.