textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Expect afternoon high temperatures to cool into the 80s today

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation through today mainly across the north

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next week with highs back in the 90s for all locations

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation in portions of central and all of northern Nevada, with CAPE values ranging between 150-400 J/kg and PWAT values above 0.5-0.6 inches. The only caveat is that storm motion is high this afternoon with higher elevated wind speeds up to 20-25 kts. This effects the residence time storms will have overhead, making precipitation very light in areas which will trend to a more isolated dry thunderstorm condition. Cooler temperatures this afternoon with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Look for the weather to quiet down during the overnight hours.

Sunday through the next week, look for quiet and dry weather conditions each day as upper ridging builds back over the southwest. Temperatures expected to gradually warm back into the 90s across the entire region with overnight lows in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Several changes were made in the NBM grids again in the near term due to fire weather concerns. These include modifying the PoP/Wx/PoPThunder grids so that isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms were better reflected for portions of northern Nevada this afternoon. High confidence for thunderstorms this afternoon across northern and parts of central Nevada, however moderate confidence in coverage and timing of the thunderstorms. High confidence of cooler temperatures this afternoon, followed by quiet and warming temperatures Sunday through next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across all terminals for the next 24 hour period, however periods of VCTS possible over all terminals this afternoon except for KTPH. Expecting gusty and erratic winds from any thunderstorm outflow of up to 45 kts or greater along with brief TSRA conditions. MVFR conditions or lower may result from passing storms. Breezy westerly winds up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts across all terminals this afternoon.

KWMC remain AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues.

FIRE WEATHER

Red Flag Warning until 5 pm this afternoon for all northeastern zones as isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms expected to develop over the area. Despite low cloud bases and PWAT values above 0.5 inches, the speed of the storms are expected to move fast across the region, mitigating the effects of precipitation. Any storms that develop have the potential of producing strong gusty erratic wind gusts over 55 mph. Weather activity is expected to dissipate overnight, leaving dry and quiet weather conditions with gradual warming temperatures that is expected to persist all through next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 900 AM PDT today through 500 PM PDT this afternoon for NVZ438-469-470