textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong winds will develop across central Nevada Saturday through Monday morning.

* Marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. A flash flood watch has been issued for White Pine, northern Nye and portions of Elko counties for Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* Most areas across northeast and central Nevada will see decent rainfall accumulations with some locations seeing a half to over an inch of rainfall through Monday.

* Lingering showers and much cooler conditions Tuesday.

* Dry Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are partly to mostly sunny at this time across northern and central Nevada. Winds are breezy to locally windy as well. Look for the winds to subside this evening, though some higher elevation locations could see their winds remain up or increase during the overnight. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

Current synoptic situation has three distinct low pressure systems across the western part of North America. These systems will all play a role in affecting the weather across the forecast area for the short term. Upper low number one is situated across southwestern Canada. Upper low two is just west of California. And upper low three is the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. Models are depicting upper low two and Rachel coalescing Saturday out in the eastern Pacific with upper low one diving to the south. For tomorrow, look for increasing clouds during the day along with higher relative humidity values. Winds will also be on the increase as well. A wind advisory has been issued for much of central and eastern Nevada with gusts of 50 mph expected. Southern Lander and Eureka counties are on the cusp of the strong winds as well but were considered borderline. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s.

By Saturday night into Sunday, major changes are in store for the forecast as cooler trough energy (upper low one) will be dropping in from the Pacific Northwest states and will join with upper troughs two and three. Remnants from Rachel will drive precipitable water values up to around 0.80 to 0.90 inches, which has the potential to surpass the previously recorded daily maximum value of 0.74 inches for October 11. In addition, the Weather Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for excessive rainfall for east-central Nevada. Limited surface based CAPE of 100 J/kg will exist, along with marginal instability. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning and afternoon. All of these ingredients are depicting increasing potential for moderate to locally heavy rain across central and northeast Nevada. As a result, have issued a flash flood watch for Nye, White Pine and portions of Elko counties. Concern exists with regards to recently burned areas and these will need to be watched. There may need to be additional locations placed in the watch area based on future model runs. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Winds will remain on the strong side so will be keeping the advisory going.

Sunday night into Monday, the positively tilted upper trough will remain over Washington and Oregon Sunday night into Monday with rain continuing over much of northern and central Nevada. Overall rain amounts are expected to be quite robust with amounts of a half inch to an inch or more in spots. Highs Monday will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

Remnant shower activity continues Tuesday with clearing conditions Wednesday through Friday with gradually warming temperatures. Highs will start out in the 60s Tuesday with warming conditions in the 70s by Friday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were made in the short term through Sunday and Monday, increasing wind speeds and wind gusts, PoPs, and weather for the upcoming system. QPF has also come up as well. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts in Central Nevada continues for Saturday and Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

Conditions across all terminals will be VFR through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds are expected to diminish this evening but will pick up tomorrow morning between 11Z-15Z. Wind speeds will be SW-W15-25G30-40KT over all terminals. BLDU is possible with the strong winds and could reduce VSBY to one mile or less in the dustier locales.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong winds and low RH will create critical fire weather conditions for fire weather zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 this afternoon. Even stronger winds are expected Saturday for zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Strong winds will develop ahead of an upper level storm system as winds out of the west to SW at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be possible today. Saturday winds will increase a bit to 15-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible. RH values today will be near 10% to 20% area wide, however moisture will be increasing Saturday as RH values increase to 20% to 35% or higher as the day progresses. Periods of moderate to heavy rain Sunday into early next week.

HYDROLOGY

Deep moisture from decaying Hurricane Rachel is expected to move northward, crossing into portions of east-central and eastern Nevada late Saturday night through roughly Monday. This significant moisture will interact with upper level low pressure to bring widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms to the watch area. Moderate to locally heavy rain will cause excessive runoff and may result in rock, mud, and debris flows in and near former fire burned areas, steep terrain, and poorly drained urban areas. Some of the former fire locations include but are not limited to the former Ward Fire, Kearny Fire, Oxley Fire, Secret Pass Fire, Starr Valley Fire, Jones Fire, and Egberts Fire.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning through 10 PM PDT this evening for fire zones 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM PDT to 11 PM PDT Saturday for fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for NVZ033-035-040-041.

Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NVZ033>035-039>041.