textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Pleasant weather and a warming trend to start the week

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system this weekend increases chances for thunderstorms and precipitation

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Building high pressure over the Pacific will migrate and broaden eastward into the Great Basin by this evening. This will exacerbate a warming trend already occurring that will push afternoon highs this week into the low to mid 90s through Thursday. Several temperature records will be at risk especially in central NV. Model guidance has backed off a bit on HeatRisk with the latest run. Both probabilistic and deterministic HeatRisk solutions have reduced in percentage chance and index value, respectively. While no Heat products are needed at this time caution should still be messaged and taken for those sensitive to warm temperatures and heat related illness.

The HPC gets squeezed southeastward later this week as a ULT develops over the Pacific and begins to push into the western CONUS replacing the high and ridge over the area. The eastern flank of the trough will shift and increase low level winds to southerly. While speeds do increase relative to the stagnant regime of the high, winds will fall below criteria for a hot/dry/windy setup.

The risk with this incoming system will be dry thunder. The moisture regime over the area is dry through Friday morning. Long term guidance increases RH and PW over mainly northern NV by Friday PM. A marked increase in CAPE (250-500 J/kg) over the area takes place Friday afternoon and remains through Saturday. This is evidenced by a range of 0.6-0.8 for CAPE shear in Euro EFI from 00Z Sat to 00Z Sun with a negligible shift of tails. This is also collocated with LIs of 0 to -2 Friday night and Saturday.

The evolution of moisture with the current model run suggests a brief period of dry thunder over northern NV early Friday afternoon before a changeover to more wet and dry Friday night. A weak boundary associated with the system drags through the state during the overnight hours. The increase in dynamic forcing associated with the boundary combined with a brief surge in moisture availability yields a rainfall accumulation of a trace to 0.15 inches mainly for northern NV. The moisture profile is not as robust over central NV where convection will remain more dry than wet through the weekend. Rainfall amounts of 0.05-0.1 inches are possible north of US-50 on Saturday.

The system exits the region quickly by Sunday morning when zonal flow develops over the western CONUS and the weather pattern appears to enter a quiet period into the following week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for a warming trend that will increase HeatRisk across the CWA this week. Moderate confidence in isolated to scattered coverage of thunder Friday PM and Saturday. Low confidence in precipitation amounts associated with incoming weather system this weekend. No major grid changes needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and winds below 10KT expected at all sites except KELY through the next 24 hours. KELY will see some afternoon breezy winds up to 20KT that are expected to die down by this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure building over the area through mid week keeps a lid on stronger wind speeds and any hot/dry/windy setup for all fire weather zones. The focus of the forecast shifts to increasing confidence in RFW dry thunder for both Friday and Saturday of this week across all fire weather zones. Northern zones are forecast to see a changeover to more wet than dry Friday night while central NV zones will continue to see dry thunder into Saturday with only highest elevations receiving appreciable rainfall. This setup will need to be messaged and monitored as it evolves through future model runs.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.