textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures in the 90s through Friday

* Heat Risk continues through Friday afternoon for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation Friday, along with cooler weekend temperatures

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Southerly flow aloft this afternoon is bring increasing atmospheric moisture and instability. Confidence is low, still cannot rule out the potential for convective buildups and isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada. Better thunderstorm chances are forecast for tomorrow when the upper ridge gives way to a weak upper trough. Precipitable water values around 0.5-0.7 inches and CAPE values 200-400 J/kg in northern Nevada will favor scattered mixed wet and dry thunderstorms. While shower activity remains in the north, central Nevada will experience gusty south winds fueling fire weather concerns. A few showers or thunderstorms linger in far northern Nevada for Saturday but the main story will be cooler temperatures, with highs up to ten degrees lower than those experienced this week. The relief looks short lived however, as upper level ridging returns behind the trough and kicks off another dry and warming period beginning Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in isolated thunderstorms in central Nevada today. Moderate confidence in thunderstorms tomorrow but low confidence in specific placement. Moderate confidence in cooler temperatures this weekend and in warming conditions early next week. Thunder potential was increased for today and tomorrow to better reflect the convective environment.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. Clouds will be increasing through the period but are not expected to impact flight categories at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible over the central Nevada fire zones through this evening. Activity will increase for tomorrow, with isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada in zones 424, 437, 438, 469, 470, and northeastern portions of 427, transitioning to mixed wet and dry thunderstorms as the day progresses. At the same time, winds will strengthen in central Nevada over zones 425, 426, and the rest of 427, combining with single digit min RH values to create critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather watches for both events have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Showers and mixed thunderstorms continue in far northern Nevada on Saturday, but cooler temperatures and increased RH values are expected to limit fire weather potential. Dry and warming weather returns on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to rise through early week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ425-426-427.

Red Flag Warning from Friday afternoon through Friday evening NVZ424-437-438-469-470.