textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes.

* Temperatures will gradually warm through Thursday, followed by cooling cooling conditions over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

Upper pattern continues to be quiet, and looks to remain quiet through Sunday, as models show a very weak and broad scale flow over the west, punctuated by a shallow trough over southern NV, and the lower Colorado river valley, and by weak riding over northern NV and ID. This flow setup looks to keep Nevada dry for the next several days, however with the westerly Jet just to the north, models continue to show the pressure gradient over northern Nevada tightening over recent runs. This will keep elevated fire weather conditions as westerly winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will possible over northern Humboldt and Elko counties through Saturday. Elsewhere winds will be lighter out of the W-SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Sunday the stronger winds shift into central Nevada as a pacific trough approaches, shifting elevated fire weather concerns into White Pine county. Monday, models show that northern stream upper level trough moving through Nevada, The GFS and ECMWF continue to trend stronger and deeper with the trough with this system, while continuing to depict a fast moving system with not much moisture. Another point of continuity is for light isolated showers accompanying trough passage Monday afternoon and evening, with the trough exiting east Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday ridging returns bringing another period of quiet weather conditions back to the Silver State. Temperature wise a quick warming trend will last through Friday as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday through Tuesday a cooling trend will see temperatures falling into the mid 70s for highs. Wednesday will see another warming trend to finish out the week with highs returning to the mid 80s. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a much drier pattern lasting through Sunday of next week.

There is low confidence in the potential for a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers across Nevada as an upper trough passes through Monday of next week.

There is moderate to high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Friday morning afternoon. Winds will be light to breezy across most of central and northern Nevada, including all terminals, with W to SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across far northern Nevada will be stronger out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gust to 30KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire Weather conditions will remain elevated for the northern parts of fire zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 through Sunday, as the pressure gradient look to remain tighter, leading to stronger winds during the afternoon. Winds across the above zones will run out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH whereas SW winds will be lighter to the south at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Temperatures look to warm into the mid 80s through Friday, with a cooling trend beginning Saturday through next Tuesday with highs dropping into the mid 70s. Wednesday will see another warming trend get under way as highs return back to the mid 80s. Monday a weak upper trough passing through Nevada may bring a low 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers, amounts at this time look to be very light with only a trace to 0.05 of rainfall possible for select locations.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.