textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Critical fire weather conditions expected across fire zone 470 Sunday afternoon, while elevated conditions continue across portions of northern Nevada this weekend.

* Record to near record heat in most of northern and central Nevada each afternoon through Sunday.

* At least moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for heat- sensitive groups each afternoon through Sunday.

* Above normal temperatures will persist into at least the middle of next week.

* Smoke from area wildfires will cause reduced air quality to persist and may lead to respiratory issues over northern and central Nevada this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Strong upper level ridging remains the dominant feature across northern and central Nevada. An upper level trough will skirt across southern Canada through the next day or two, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across the area. Expect critical fire weather criteria to be reached tomorrow over portions of Elko county and have issued a red flag for the afternoon. Other locales will continue to see quiet or elevated fire weather conditions. Though it may not feel like it, a dry cold front marching across the area Sunday and Sunday night will bring a few degrees of cooling Sunday. High temperatures will generally be in the 90s with lows in the 50s.

The upper ridge will be suppressed southward Monday and Tuesday in response to the aforementioned upper trough. This will bring another couple of degrees of cooling Monday with dry conditions persisting. Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 50s. Models are suggesting the upper ridge circulation moving west on Tuesday with some slight warming, though temperatures over the area will remain in the 90s. No precipitation is expected under this feature and lows will be in the 50s.

Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge that brought us the triple digit heat will consolidate and strengthen over this time frame with more triple digit anticipated. HeatRisk will be at least moderate with locations possibly needing heat headline product during the mid to latter portions of next week and will need to keep watch. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected during this time frame with many locations either surpassing the century mark or flirting with it by a a degree or two. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Occasional afternoon breezes to 20 mph are possible. Long term progs are showing the possibility of mid-level moisture returning Saturday, but given all this heat, this will lead to isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada. Will need to keep an eye on this as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor adjustments to the winds were made to highlight the higher winds in northeast Nevada. Otherwise, no changes were made. Confidence in slight cooling is high for tomorrow and early next week. Confidence is also high in the red flag conditions tomorrow for fire zone 470. Moderate confidence exists for the warmup once again next week.

AVIATION

Smoke from area wildfires will result in periods of hazy skies through tomorrow, especially across portions of east- central Nevada. KELY may see the VIS temporarily drop to 6SM due to smoke from a nearby wildfire. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue under mostly clear/mostly sunny skies.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong upper level ridging will continue to reside over the southwestern United States through the upcoming week. A weak, dry cold front Sunday will bring breezy to windy conditions, low relative humidity levels, and a few degrees of cooling for the afternoon. As such, winds and relative humidity are expected to be at critical levels across fire zone 470, so have issued a red flag warning for this location from 2-11PM Sunday. Look for several more degrees of cooling Monday with another round of elevated fire weather conditions in the northeast. Temperatures will warm back up to well above normal levels by Tuesday and beyond as the high pressure system begins to shift back west. Triple digit heat returns mid-week with periods of afternoon breezes.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for NVZ470.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for NVZ031-033>041.