textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler today with patchy early morning fog or low stratus in some valley locations

* Warming trend begins Tuesday * Dry conditions are expected through at least Wednesday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The increase in low level moisture the past day or two in combination with cool air advection early this morning has produced pockets of low stratus overnight, and may result in patchy fog through around 8AM this morning. Otherwise mostly sunny today. The upper level low currently centered over northern Idaho and the intermountain west will exit eastward the rest of today and tonight which will result in much lighter winds across the CWA. Winds today will generally be in the 5 to 10 mph range with gusts at or below 20 mph. Low temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning are now expected to be a little warmer than previous guidance suggested, with the threat of frost mainly limited to valleys of Elko County. High pressure rebuilds across NV beginning on Tuesday with temperatures trending warmer through mid-week. Mid-level moisture is expected to push up into Central Nevada Wednesday afternoon and expand into portions on Northern Nevada by Thursday afternoon. Weak instability in combination with the increased mid-level moisture may result in a few thunderstorms on Thursday, with current guidance giving a 10% chance of TS across Eureka County and the southern half of Elko County into early Thursday evening. The next upper level low approaches NV from the northwest on Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching system will help keep most of the region dry on Friday, however mid-level moisture and instability near Great Basin National Park may be enough for isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the current NBM forecast. There is high confidence cooler than normal temperatures today and tonight.

High confidence in a warming trend Tuesday through mid-week, with low confidence in thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

Areas of low stratus (SCT-BKN 015-020) early this morning with MVFR CIGS at KTPH and possibly KELY through around 14Z. Dry with VFR conditions the rest of today and tonight at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Mostly sunny today with afternoon highs trending a little cooler. Winds will be noticeably lighter this afternoon, generally in the 5 to 10 mph range with gusts of 10 to 20 mph. Dry with temperatures trending warmer Tuesday and Wednesday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.