textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry through Monday with temperatures trending warmer

* Slightly breezier winds Monday with gusts of 15 to 30 mph across Northern NV and 30 to 45 mph gusts across Central NV

* A high wind watch is in effect for central Nevada as very strong winds are expected to develop Tuesday

* A storm system impacts the region on Tuesday with afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms

* Colder Tuesday night into Wednesday with a mix of rain and snow

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridge is continuing its eastward trek across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Skies are mostly sunny with periods of mid and high level clouds passing overhead from time to time. Winds are light in the north though breezy in the central with gusts to about 35 mph. Look for the winds to subside tonight with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. No precipitation is expected.

A large, closed upper level trough will be wobbling eastward for Monday with precipitation expected in California. For northern and central Nevada, winds will be breezy to locally windy with southwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs will warm into the 70s, which is several degrees warmer than what was felt on Sunday. Even with this warming, only one climate site will be near its record. Elko Airport's current record was set back in 1994 when the high reached 82 degrees. The current forecast high will be 78 degrees tomorrow. All other locations will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees for highs. Winds will also develop during the afternoon with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Clouds are expected to increase and lower due to the slow forward progression of the incoming cutoff trough. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

For Tuesday, the main upper low's center of circulation is projected to remain off the western United States coast, though precipitation is barely able to move into portions of California and western Nevada by early morning. Look for moisture to increase during the latter portions of the morning and afternoon. Strong to very strong winds will be developing during the late morning and afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast to be in central Nevada where sustained south winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible. Some of the wind probabilities for speeds at or greater than 58 mph have trended upward: Eureka Airport is showing roughly eighty-five percent probability, Ely Airport is about sixty percent probability, and Tonopah Airport is sitting around eighty percent probability. Based on these values, as well as model trends, have issued a high wind watch for Tuesday for southern Lander/Eureka, White Pine, and northwest and northeast Nye counties for Tuesday. Other locations in the north may see advisory level wind speeds with some possible revision to the headline products. With all of the wind, blowing dust will be a concern and would not be surprised if dust restricted visibility to one half mile or less in spots. Finally, high temperatures will remain above normal levels with readings in the 70s. All locations will see rain showers begin during the day due to these warm temperatures. Some minor instability will be present in west- central Nevada for isolated thunderstorm development, though CAPE will be rather pathetic. By the overnight, some cooling into the 40s will take place. This will bring snow levels to about 5500 to 6000 feet or so during the overnight with mixed precipitation likely. However, given the warm temperatures, not expecting much in the way of any accumulation in the valleys.

The upper trough will quickly fill as it moves over northern Nevada on Wednesday. Winds will continue to be breezy to windy but speeds as of now look to be much less than on Tuesday. Look for a wind shift to the west and northwest throughout the Wednesday period. Temperatures will be much cooler as well with highs reaching the 40s and 50s. The mix of rain and snow showers will continue throughout the day but again, accumulations in the valleys will be quite limited given the insolation for this time of year. For Wednesday and Thursday, the parent upper trough will quickly exit to the northeast but another lobe is expected to dive to the southeast for Thursday. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s for the overnight with 50s and 60s for highs on Thursday.

Look for isolated to scattered showers to round out the period through Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor changes were made to the NBM wind forecast for Tuesday to bring the speeds up slightly. High confidence continues through the short term with respect to the warming and dry conditions. Confidence is high for very strong winds on Tuesday in central Nevada. Confidence increases to moderate to high with regards to precipitation timing on Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions to continue through the next 24 hour period. Breezy to locally windy south to southwest winds will develop tomorrow across all TAF locations. The strongest winds will be in central Nevada where the KTPH and KELY terminals will see gusts to 30-35KT in the afternoon. Localized BLDU is possible in the strongest winds but probability remains too low for inclusion in TAFs.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening NVZ035-037-040-041.