textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Moderate to major risk for heat-related illnesses for most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in parts of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada this weekend and into the next week

* Cooling trend Monday through Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level ridge situated over the four corners continue to bring heat in most of Northern and Central Nevada today as temperatures climb into the upper 90s and triple digits. Various heat related products are still in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening across all zones except for the Excessive Heat Warning for Southeastern Elko County ending at 11 PM PDT Monday evening as overnight lows remain in the upper 70s, combined with high temperatures around 100 degrees.

The upper ridge pattern is bringing in moisture over Arizona and the Baja that is moving northward into Nevada. Active monsoon weather pattern returns across much of Central and Eastern Nevada this weekend as PWAT values increase up to 0.8 to 1 inch, along with CAPE values increasing above 200 J/kg. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across much of Central Nevada this afternoon, with dry thunderstorm reaching into Eastern Nevada. Storm motion is expected to be a little fast early in the day, but by the afternoon, the motion will slow down, allowing the potential for more rain reaching the valleys. Throughout the next week, the active monsoon pattern is expected to continue each afternoon with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across Central and Eastern Nevada. As for Humboldt County, PWAT values increase up to one inch, however little to no instability is leading to little to no chance of active weather throughout the week.

Elevated fire weather conditions today across Northern Nevada along the state border as winds expected to gust up to 20-25 mph with low humidity around 10% and very high temperatures. Over the week, fire weather conditions will begin to ease as the monsoonal flow will continue to bring moisture, causing minimum relative humidity to be 20% or above across the region by the end of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate to major risk for heat-related illnesses for most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon. High forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in parts of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding elevated fire weather conditions due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions in Northern Nevada today. Moderate forecast confidence in a cooling trend Monday through Friday. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. VCTS conditions this afternoon and evening at KELY and KTPH as monsoonal flow pushes into Nevada. Winds will be light below 10 kts with some breezy gusts up to 10-17 kts over the terminals, however strong gusty erratic winds up to 55 mph from nearby thunderstorms may be present at KELY and KTPH. CIG levels around FL100-120 with some as low as FL050 as cloud develops from increasing monsoon moisture.

FIRE WEATHER

Active isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over fire zones 425, 426, and parts of 427 as monsoon moisture pushes into Central Nevada with increasing instability. The storm motion will be slow, which may allow some wetting rains to reach the valleys, however probabilities for ample amount of precipitation is very low. Elevated fire weather conditions today across the northern zones due to dry, hot, and breezy conditions. Active monsoon pattern is expected to be more widespread across central and parts of Eastern Nevada Monday, with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Look for active monsoon thunderstorms to persist through next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-036-037-038-039-040-041

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033