textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Southern White Pine and Eastern Nye Counties today

* Warming trend today through Sunday

* Potential exists for a 4-Corners monsoon setup early next week

DISCUSSION

(Today through Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A long wave trough over western Canada will drag a shortwave across Northern Nevada today. This wave will carry enough forcing, despite weak associated boundaries, to initiate convection over Northeastern Nevada today. This wave is working with limited moisture, so storm activity will mainly be of the dry variety elevating fire risk concerns today.

A warming trend will continue into the weekend when afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 90s. While HeatRisk impacts are expected to be minor through the weekend, those sensitive to hot temperatures should take precaution to avoid heat related illness.

Long range guidance into early next week depicts the development of a trough over the Pacific coinciding with high pressure building to the southwest over Northern Mexico. Low level flow turns more southerly starting Sunday afternoon and the set up is in place for a potential 4-Corners monsoon event for east-central NV Monday and Tuesday. Current positioning of the high is a bit too far south, but if the high migrates further north into the southwestern CONUS, likelihood of monsoon in the area should increase.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in thunderstorm activity today. High confidence exists in the continued warming trend. Low confidence exists in a possible monsoon setup early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Westerly afternoon wind gusts will range 20-22KTs at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, KTPH, and KBAM before diminishing after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated thunderstorms are forecasted for fire weather zones 425/469/470 this afternoon into this evening. Moisture is slightly better today compared to yesterday when a changeover from dry to wet thunderstorms is expected by this evening. Previous concerns about a hot/dry/windy setup over central NV today have been relaxed as wind speed values have decreased with recent model runs.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.