textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Critical fire weather conditions in west central Nevada Today and Thursday

* Low chance for showers and thunderstorms along the Oregon and Idaho borders, as well as the Utah border

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level trough over northern California will slowly move east into southern Oregon and southern Idaho through Saturday. This trough will bring a low 10% to 20% chance of light isolated showers across the northern tier of Humboldt and Elko counties. The main impact of this trough though will be to increase the winds across central Nevada for Today, and Thursday. Strong SW winds will be possible across N Nye, Southern Eureka, southern Lander and White Pine counties as speed of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH will be possible. A key question for this time frame has been relative humidity, and how far west would a surge of tropical moisture moving north into Utah from Arizona would make it. Model trends have shifted farther west, and have trended higher with moisture levels as well. Current thinking has this quasi dry line setting up along a line from the lee of the Ruby mountains south just east of the White Pine/Eureka county line. To the West of this line RH values will be low, near 10% to 15%. to the east RH values climb to near 40% during the afternoons Today and Wednesday. As a result of this change Red Flag warnings remain in effect for Southern Eureka, Southern Lander, and parts of N Nye counties though 8PM tonight, and from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch that was in effect for Thursday for White Pine, central Elko, and eastern Elko counties will be canceled as RH trends are greater that forecast. Although winds will still be strong, the RH will help keep fire weather risks elevated, but not critical. Another factor with the higher moisture levels will be chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday for eastern Elko and White Pine counties, as a 10% to 30% chance for storms will be possible. Friday into the weekend the upper trough will lift into Wyoming, this will push a cool front across Nevada, shifting winds to the west northwest, and allow the pressure gradient to relax and wind speeds to relax back to 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible as a shortwave ridge transits NV. Monday a second upper trough will move onshore from the Pacific, this trough will have limited moisture to work with initially, but as it stalls over Nevada for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week may be able to pull in some tropical moisture for a low chance of showers and storms. After Wednesday model consistency evaporates as the GFS and ECMWF diverge on the upper pattern significantly.

AVIATION

VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Thursday afternoon. Upper trough to our northwest will strengthen SW winds to 15KT to 30 KT with gust up to 40KT possible for KTPH and KELY. Winds for northern NV will be lighter out of the W to SW at 10KT to 20KT with a few gust up to 30 KT possible. There will be a low chance for VCTS for KELY and KENV tonight through Thursday as tropical moisture is being pulled west from UT by the upper trough.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions will be critical for parts of west central Nevada this evening and Thursday as breezy to strong SW winds of 20 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH will be possible across the US 50 corridor. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for FW zones 426 and 427 as RH values will be near 10% to 15% in addition to the strong winds through 8 PM tonight, and from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday. East of the Eureka/White Pine county line however, RH levels have trended much higher than forecast, as values are now expected to remain above 30% for many locations. A Fire weather watch had been issued for Thursday afternoon for FW zones 425, 469, and 470, but with RH levels now observed and forecast to remain above 30%, have decided to cancel the watch, even though winds will keep fire weather conditions elevated. For northern Nevada fire weather concerns look to be low through the weekend as a pair of upper troughs moving through the region look to keep winds low, and temperatures near to, to below normal, as well as a low chance for showers across the far north.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories