textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue across east-central Nevada now throughout the day

* Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon

* Temperatures continue to remain at or below normal for the next couple days

* A break in the active weather is possible by mid-week

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through this Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across portions of east-central Nevada this morning. Remote observation platforms are showing light rainfall amounts as a result.

For today, upper level ridging has shifted east and will be over the southern United States this afternoon. An upper trough will be over northeast Washington State, extending southwest across California. The resulting southwest flow has pushed in some drier air. Precipitable water values are around 0.25 to 0.40 inches over much of the forecast area, with greater than 0.50 inches across northeast Nye and the eastern half of White Pine county. Have kept isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over northeast Nye and White Pine counties today as a result. Not much in the way of rainfall accumulations are expected. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the 70s and low 80s as a result. Winds will generally be light with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Any convective activity is expected to dissipate by the early evening with mostly clear skies tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough over California is forecast to shift eastward across Nevada Monday. Precipitable water values will be on the increase during the late morning and afternoon with forecast amounts at or greater than two-thirds of an inch. Areal coverage for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm underwent a westward expansion Monday versus Sunday. Storms could produce brief periods of moderate rainfall though storm motions will be quite fast at 15 to 30 knots over east- central Nevada. Temperatures will remain near normal levels with readings in the 70s and 80s. Afternoon breezes with gusts to 25 mph will be limited to those locales along and south of the US Highway 50 corridor. Look for the convective activity to wane Monday night into Tuesday from west to east with lows in the 40s for the most part.

Southwest flow continues over northern and central Nevada Tuesday with isolated shower activity confined to basically the eastern halves of Elko and White Pine counties. It will be breezy in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s with overnight lows in the 40s.

The area may see some drier weather during the mid-week from Wednesday through roughly Saturday with afternoon highs remaining near normal with readings in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Near term gridded forecast was modified to massage PoPs, Wx, and winds to reflect the possibility of showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. Confidence improves to moderate for precipitation chances Monday afternoon, though is low with respect to amounts and location of convective activity. Confidence is also low at this time regarding the mid-week break in weather.

AVIATION

Expect VFR conditions through the upcoming 24-hour period. There is a twenty to thirty percent probability for -SHRA/-TSRA across the KELY terminal today, while there will be a ten to twenty percent probability of -SHRA/-TSRA at the KENV terminal today. Winds will be SW-W5-10KT later this morning and afternoon with occasional gusts to 20KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have continued during the early morning hours over portions of fire zones 425-427, and 470. The activity is expected to continue through this evening but remain rather isolated. On Monday, an upper level disturbance will move through the area, bringing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to central and northeast Nevada. Elevated fire weather conditions due to strong winds and low relative humidity values are possible across fire zone 437 on Tuesday, though relative humidity values look to improve on Wednesday. A break from the showers and storms are possible by by mid-week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.