textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry this afternoon with high temperatures in the 70s
* Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday in Elko county
* Temperatures trend warmer through the week
DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Monday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current conditions across the area are sunny and calm, with satellite imagery showing only a few high clouds across northern Nevada. Persistent ridging over the eastern US will slow the retreat of the trough over the West but a slow warming trend is still expected, with highs in the 70s today increasing to the 80s by Friday. Conditions will mostly remain dry during this time, although a weak low center riding the trough on Wednesday could spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms in northern Elko county. Winds will mostly be light, with the exception of Thursday when breezy conditions develop in central Nevada. The high to the east diminishes by the weekend, allowing the upper air pattern to progress and ridging to begin to return to the West. This will allow temperatures to spike for the holiday weekend, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s and some early, low confidence, excessive heat indicators developing. Heat is expected to continue into next week, with highs in the mid 90s and breezy conditions returning in central Nevada.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in increasing temperatures through the weekend, however confidence in excessive heat potential Saturday and Sunday is low. Low confidence in shower and thunder potential on Wednesday, and moderate confidence in quiet conditions for the rest of the forecast. No changes were made to base NBM output.
AVIATION
VFR conditions and winds less than 10KT at all sites today.
FIRE WEATHER
Low fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow due to humidity around 20% in northern Nevada and light winds across the area. Conditions dry out starting Wednesday, in connection with a warming trend. Elevated conditions are expected for Thursday due to wind gusts 20-25 mph, with about a 20% chance of winds increasing to above critical thresholds. Winds die down again Friday through Sunday as temperatures continue to warm.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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