textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Strong southwest winds in Central Nevada today and Tuesday

* A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday evening, and Thursday afternoon into Friday

* Snow levels will drop to the valley floor early Tuesday morning

* Winter driving conditions likely on all roads Tuesday night and Wednesday morning

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

Strong series of upper level troughs on approach to Nevada today will bring strong winds, rain, and snow across the state through Friday. Strong southwest winds have developed across central and northern Nevada ahead of the first upper trough which is currently over California. Winds of 25 MPH to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH will be possible today lasting into the morning hours with patchy areas of blowing dust possible. Because of this, a wind advisory in effect across central Nevada through Wednesday evening. Precipitation from this upper trough will begin this evening with a winter weather advisory in effect starting at 4 PM. For the valleys and passes, thanks to the warm temperatures of the last few days, precipitation will start as rain. Unfortunately, this winter models have not handled the timing of precipitation change over to well, showing a cold bias in forecast temperatures. Current projections show a change over occurring overnight between 10 PM and 2 AM, which matches the timing of the heaviest precipitation. If timing is any later the bulk of the precipitation with this first wave may well be rain/snow mix for elevation below 6000 ft. After a brief lull, wave two will push into Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. This wave looks to be the strongest wave, and colder than the first. Snow levels by Tuesday morning will have dropped to the valley floors and precipitation type with this wave looks to be all snow. This second wave has trended a bit south over the last few runs with central Nevada looking to pick up the most accumulations with this second wave. Overall valley snow totals have come down a bit due from previous runs due to warmer temperatures and lower overall QPF in the models. Between this evening through Wednesday, northern Nevada valleys could receive between 0.10 and 0.50 of water, of that 1 to 5 of snowfall. N NV passes could see between 2 to 6 of snow, while mountains see all snow with up to 12 to 24 of snow. Central NV Valleys could see between 0.20 to 0.60 of water of which 2 to 6 of snow could fall, US 50 Passes could see between 3 and 8 of snow with central NV mountain seeing up to 2 feet of new snow. After another brief lull a third upper trough looks to pass through Nevada Thursday evening through Friday. Current model forecast show this system to be the drier than the previous two, with overall QPF ranging between 0.05 and 0.35. Good news is this will be in the form of snow with an additional 1 to 3 for the valleys and 2 to 6 for the passes and range summits. For next weekend a shortwave ridge will serve to quiet things down, but models show the potential for a fourth upper level storm system moving in for next Monday bringing more chances for rain and snow for the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in the chances for strong southwest winds with local areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening.

There is moderate confidence for lower elevation rain, mountain snow showers tonight changing over to snow across Nevada Tuesday morning

There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with snow accumulation in the valleys of 1 to 5, Passes seeing 2 to 8 and mountains seeing between 1 to 2 feet of snow by Wednesday evening.

There is moderate confidence for a third system bringing light snow showers Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning. Strong winds have developed ahead of an upper trough for KEKO, KELY, and KTPH. Expected winds of S-SW20-30G35-45KT possible through 12Z Tuesday. Other locations (KWMC, KBAM, KENV) in the north will see winds S-SW15-20G35KT this afternoon. BLDU from the strongest winds could produce reduced VSBY to one mile or less but confidence remains too low to place in TAFs. VCSH is expected after 22Z across KTPH and KWMC, and by 01Z Tuesday for KBAM, KEKO, and KELY.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ030-031-035>041.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ034.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ035-037-040-041.