textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Near record heat in most of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon

* Major risk for heat-related illnesses for most of Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon through Sunday afternoon

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Northern Nevada today through Sunday due to hot, dry, and breezy weather

* Critical fire weather conditions in central Nevada tomorrow due to isolated dry thunderstorms

* Isolated, dry thunderstorms in parts of Central Nevada this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwest CONUS continues to situate near the four corners high. This pattern is keeping high temperatures across the region 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Various heat related products are in effect across the entire region and have been extended until 11 pm Sunday as high temperatures remain in the upper 90s to 100s with Moderate to Major heat risk indices across the area.

Tighter weather gradients to the north of Nevada will increase westerly winds in the northern zones with speeds up to 15-20 mph, gusts as high as 20-25 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions will be present tomorrow due to breezy winds along with low minimum relative humidity and hot temperatures.

Towards central Nevada, the high pressure over the four corners is pushing monsoonal moisture back into the region. PWAT values, increase in CAPE, and increased instability from high temperatures has parts of central Nevada, in particular over White Pine County, will see dry thunderstorm development until the evening hours. These thunderstorms are expected to be short lived as storm motion is slow, which will result with thunderstorm collapsing on themselves as downdrafts will cut off the storm updrafts. Despite the short lived storms, the greatest threat is still the potential for dry lightning and strong gusty outflow winds from any thunderstorms reaching up to 40-50 mph.

Tomorrow, chances for more isolated dry thunderstorms across central Nevada as PWAT values and CAPE values are expected to be higher than the day prior. Dry thunderstorms are expected across a wider area over White Pine County and Northeastern Nye County in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon for those areas due to the dry thunderstorm potential. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for NV fire zones 425 and 426 from 12 PM to 9 PM Saturday.

Sunday, monsoonal moisture will continue to move north into Nevada from the upper ridge with chances for monsoon thunderstorms to spread across central Nevada and reach into parts of northeastern Nevada. Confidence remains low, but thunderstorms across central Nevada expected to be a mix of wet/dry with little precipitation making it into the valleys.

Into the next week, chances for monsoon thunderstorms each afternoon as the upper ridge is expected to stay over the four corners and push moisture into Nevada. Much of the activity is expected to stay over central Nevada and into parts of northeastern Nevada. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs in the 90s and low temperatures reaching back down into the 50s. Extreme Heat Warning will still be in effect for eastern Elko County until 11 pm Monday as high temperatures stay in the upper 90s, however low temperatures remain high in the upper 70s to 80s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continue for near record heat across northern and central Nevada for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions due to hot, dry, and breezy winds over northern Nevada tomorrow. Moderate confidence of critical fire weather conditions in central Nevada due to dry thunderstorms tomorrow. Changes to the POP, weather, wind speeds, and wind gusts grids were made to better reflect the oncoming monsoonal moisture and thunderstorms for today and tomorrow.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals over the next 24 hour period. This afternoon and tomorrow, VCTS conditions expected near KELY and KTPH as monsoonal moisture enters into Nevada producing thunderstorms. Winds expected to be light between 5-10 kts, however thunderstorm outflows may produce gusty erratic winds up to 40-50 mph.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions present over the northern zones along the state border as winds reach up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph with low relative humidity around 10% and high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. There is also elevated fire weather conditions across central Nevada in zones 425 and 426 as monsoon moisture pushes into southern Nevada, producing dry thunderstorms over the area. Dry lightning and gusty erratic winds from thunderstorm downdrafts up to 40-50 mph will be the greatest threat from these storms. Tomorrow, monsoon moisture continues to move into Nevada and will be more spread across central Nevada extending into zone 427. Potential for more dry thunderstorms will be more widespread across zones 425 and 426. Red Flag Warning has been issued from 12 pm to 8 pm Saturday for 425 and 426. The potential for dry thunderstorms in the afternoon expected to continue into the next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035.

Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ030-036-037-038-039-040-041

Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033

Red Flag Warning from 12 PM PDT to 9 PM PDT Saturday for fire zones NV425-426