textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances diminish each afternoon, ending by Sunday

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada this afternoon

* Above average temperatures continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Thunderstorms are kicking off in central Nevada and are expected to spread into the eastern part of northern Nevada over the next several hours. Very warm conditions are also present, with heat advisories in effect in northern Nevada through this evening. Above average temperatures are expected to continue through the forecast period, with highs in the 90s to very low triple digits, but the humidity is expected to decrease over the next couple days. This is due to an upper level high pressure system over the plains shifting west and cutting off the monsoonal moisture flow. This will also decrease storm chances tomorrow and end them entirely starting Sunday. The high and associated ridging are favored to stay in place through the rest of the forecast, which would keep conditions dry and warm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in thunderstorms today and tomorrow, although confidence is moderate regarding areal coverage tomorrow. High confidence in above average temperatures over the next several days. Moderate confidence in the forecast past Tuesday due to model variability regarding the upper air pattern. No changes were made to NBM output.

AVIATION

Afternoon thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals, with KEKO/KENV/KELY/KTPH in the thunderstorm zone today. As usual, thunderstorm impacts will include strong erratic winds and potential short lived visibility drops due to heavy rain. KWMC, KBAM and KTPH can also expect prevailing gusty winds up to 25KT through this evening. Otherwise, expect light winds less than 10KT and VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue today, with isolated thunderstorms tomorrow. Elevated to near critical afternoon winds are forecast for eastern Nevada for the next several days, however minimum RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds, at around 18-25%.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-033-036-038.