textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in parts of Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through the week

* Gradual cooling trend Tuesday through Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The large upper level ridge over the four corners region will continue to remain in its location for the next day or two. This will keep a fairly feeble southerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. Models are hinting at a weak upper level trough developing along the western coast of the United States. A weak southwest flow is expected that will shunt some of the subtropical moisture east, especially over Northern Nevada. This will bring a decrease in the convective activity across the north, though activity is expected to persist in Central Nevada as evident by the decreasing precipitable water values in the north. Highs in the north will be a degree or three cooler with readings in the low to upper 90s expected over the area. Winds will be breezy especially over the north with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly across the US Highway 50 corridor with some activity reaching Southern Elko county. Main threats will be the cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts near 55 mph. Look for activity to gradually wane during the overnight hours with lows in the 50s and 60s.

By Tuesday, all models show the slow strengthening of the upper trough across the western United States with the four corners ridge maintaining its position. Convective activity will again be confined to those locales along the US Highway 50 corridor. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to again cool by several degrees with readings in the low to mid 90s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

On Wednesday, a weak disturbance is expected to push across Northern and Central Nevada during afternoon and evening. This looks like it will lead to an uptick in the convective activity as guidance is showing a fifty to seventy percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. WPC is highlighting this time with an area expansion northward of the excessive rainfall outlook. Will need to continue looking at this event as it unfolds for moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions at this time are forecast to be around seven to 14 knots. Highs in the afternoon will further cool with readings in the 80s and 90s. Shower activity will continue into the overnight with lows in the 50s.

Thursday through Sunday, models continue to show a daily pattern of shower and thunderstorm activity with high temperatures continuing to cool. Readings are expected to drop into the 80s by next weekend with lows in the 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high regarding a cooling trend Tuesday through Friday, as well as afternoon and evening thunderstorms in Central Nevada. Confidence is currently moderate for Wednesday's convective development. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Convection expected this afternoon, with VCTS at KELY. Wind gusts to 20-25KT anticipated across the northern terminals KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern Nevada today and Tuesday due to west wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as eight percent. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated in parts of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and cloud to ground lightning strikes.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.