textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and thunderstorms continue across Northern Nevada today

* Strong wind gusts to 50 mph will develop throughout Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and evening

* Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of Central Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity

* A Freeze Watch for portions of Elko county has been issued for the potential of freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday morning

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low is centered along the Washington state coastline early this Saturday morning. Light to moderate rain showers continue across portions of Northern Nevada this morning and afternoon. Weak instability across mainly Humboldt and Elko Counties will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon to early evening hours. The upper level low off the WA coast this morning will drift south and east to center over Eastern Oregon by this afternoon. Strong H3 jet energy of around 125kts to the west and south of the center of low pressure will pass over Northern and Central Nevada today, resulting in westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across most of Northeastern and Central NV from late this Saturday morning through late this evening. While rainfall is expected across much the region north of I-80 today, dry conditions and gusty winds south of I-80 are expected to result in areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening. Visibilities may at times be reduced to 3 miles or less. Much cooler today with highs across Northern Nevada in the 50s and 60s.

The upper level low weakens tonight as it continues to drift south and east. A cold northerly flow aloft tonight will help low temperature dip into the 30s across much of Northern and portions of Central Nevada by early Sunday morning. A frost advisory remains in effect for most of Elko County for tonight.

The cold air mass lingers across the Great Basin Sunday with a 35% chance of light rain showers across the northern half of the CWA. Reinforcing low pressure digging south through CA Sunday night into Monday will help hold the cold air mass over NV, with low temperatures trending still colder Monday morning, where low 30s to upper 20s will be possible across most valley locations across both Northern and Central NV. Broad trough energy continues across the Western US through the middle of next week keeping temperatures below normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence is gusty west wind today. Moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms across portions of Northern NV today. Moderate to high confidence of critical fire weather conditions across Central NV today, though RHs may only lower into the 15-20% range across northern portions of zones 425 and 427. Moderate to high confidence of low temperatures tonight across Elko County lowering into the low to mid 30s. No deviation from the NBM with this forecast package.

AVIATION

A storm system will impact the region today with showers across most of Northern Nevada, along with a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms at KWMC, KBAM and KEKO. Strong westerly winds develop by late this Saturday morning across the entire region, with gusts of 35 to 50 knots through the afternoon and into this evening. Blowing dust is expected to develop this afternoon across much of Central and into portions of Northern NV where visibilities may be reduced to 3SM or less at times. Lighter rain showers linger across portions of Northern Nevada tonight into Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Showers and thunderstorms persist today across mainly zones 437, 438, 469 and 470. Westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected from late this morning through this evening across the entire region. Strongest winds are expected across zones 470, 425, 426 and 427. Dry conditions and critically low relative humidities are expected today across most of Central NV, with Red Flag Warnings in effect from 11AM through 11PM today in zones 425, 426 and 427.

Much colder tonight with lows in the 30s to 40s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger across Northeastern NV on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to trend cooler through the rest of the weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Saturday for NVZ425>427.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning NVZ031-039.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033>041.