textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm continues through Tuesday afternoon

* Cooling trend Thursday and Friday

* Valley rain and mountain snow showers likely late Tuesday into Wednesday through Friday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite loop is showing nothing in the way of cloud cover across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Expect a cool night with lows in the 30s and clear skies.

Dry and warm conditions continue to dominate in the short term as a dry pattern remains over the forecast area. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday afternoons are expected to be in the 60s and 70s. Overnight lows for Monday and Tuesday night will be in the 30s and 40s.

All models are depicting an upper level low pressure system diving to the south from the Pacific Northwest states to just off the coast of western California late Tuesday. Light valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected to develop during the latter portions of the afternoon and overnight period. Winds will be breezy to locally windy with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. Highs will be several degrees cooler with readings in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

A slow forward progression is in store for this storm system as it tries to move east across northern and central Nevada Wednesday and Thursday. Valley rain showers and mountain snow showers are again possible both days. The estimated three day forecast amounts for precipitation and snowfall are coming in around one-half to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall in the valleys with one to four inches across the highest elevations in the mountains. Afternoon highs both of these days will be in the 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

The system may be exiting east by the latter portions of the week. Highs will remain on the cool side with readings in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the short term grids as NBM is handling the forecast well. Confidence in the forecast remains high through Monday. Confidence continues to be moderate with respect to the precipitation and temperature forecast next week. Low confidence on the chances of a cold front late next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the predominate flight category across all terminals for the next 24 hours. No precipitation is expected today through Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada through Tuesday afternoon will be two to four degrees above normal for this time of year. A cooling trend is expected Thursday and Friday. The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada late Tuesday through Friday, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the central fire zones Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts will be around 20 to 25 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon as well, though the northern zones will see minimum relative humidity values above fifteen percent Monday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.