textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Expect afternoon high temperatures to cool into the 80s today

* Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation through today mainly across the north

* Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next week with highs back in the 90s for all locations

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies have been scattering out during the early morning hours with occasional strikes in portions of Elko county this morning. Surface dewpoints have come up considerably versus twenty-four hours ago.

A disturbance will be affecting portions of central and northern Nevada today. CAPE values remain robust at 300-700J/kg with negative lifted indices. Storm motions have continued to remain rather fast at 20 to 25KT which will limit the residence time storms will have overhead. Upgraded to red flag warning as a result; please see fire discussion below. Highs today will be cooler than what was experienced yesterday with readings in the 80s. Look for the weather to quiet down during the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday through late next week, look for a period of quiet weather through the period with highs coming back into the 90s by early next week and mid to upper 90s by mid-week. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Many changes were again made to the NBM forecast in the near term due to fire weather concerns. These include modifying the PoP/Wx/Sky grids so that isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms were depicted for portions of northern Nevada for the late morning to afternoon period. Modifications were also made to increase the wind speeds/gusts in the near term as well. Confidence is moderate with respect to the coverage and timing of dry thunderstorms in northern Nevada this afternoon and into the weekend. High confidence in cooler temperatures today and tomorrow with moderate confidence in warming conditions early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. VCTS is expected across the terminals KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV-KELY after 17Z this morning. Expecting gusty and erratic winds to 45KT with any thunderstorm along with brief +TSRA. Breezy W-NW10-15G20-30KT expected to develop across all TAF sites later this morning and afternoon.

KWMC ASOS observation currently unreliable at this time. KWMC TAF is AMD NOT SKED.

FIRE WEATHER

Upgraded the fire weather watch to red flag this morning as isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will re-develop once again across portions of northeastern Nevada throughout the afternoon period. Even with low cloud bases, the fast moving nature of these storms will mitigate the effects of precipitation across northeastern Nevada. Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce strong, erratic wind gusts to 55 mph. The threat for storms will be dissipating later this evening and into the overnight, leaving dry and gradually warming conditions through next week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 900 AM PDT today through 500 PM PDT this afternoon for NVZ438-469-470