textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

* Light precipitation across northern Nevada possible through Tuesday evening

* Fair weather and warmer temperatures the latter half of the week and this weekend

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level trough is currently making its way across the Silver state this morning bringing breezy winds and a few light showers across northern Nevada. Overall there is a 35% to 55% chance for additional showers this morning and afternoon as the core of the upper trough passes over northern Nevada. There will also be a low chance for a few lightning strike given the convective nature of the showers, but chances for thunder will be around 10% this afternoon. Accumulations, if any, today will be light at around a trace to 0.05 of rain will be possible. Winds will remain breezy during the afternoon Tuesday, out of the W-NW at 15 MPH to 25 MPH, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible, good news is that with the cooler temperatures, humidity levels will remain high enough to mitigate Fire Weather concerns. Upper trough will exit the great basin region Tuesday night, However Nevada looks to remain under NW flow aloft for the rest of the week as an Upper level ridge builds offshore of California, as a series of weak upper troughs dig southeast across the Rockies and high Plains. This will keep winds elevated Wednesday afternoon with W-NW winds of 15 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH continuing. Thursday through next Tuesday The ridge will build slowly eastward allowing the pressure gradient to relax some allowing for wind speeds to drop during the afternoons to 10 MPH to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible generally out of the west. Another factor with the continuing NW flow is that this will keep any active weather well to the north, keeping quiet conditions with warming temperatures to return through next weekend. High temperatures look to warm from the mid 70s to 80s Tuesday, back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend. Overnight lows will also warm, from the low 30s to low 50s Thursday morning, warming back into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is moderate confidence for isolated showers across northern Nevada Tuesday morning and afternoon There is high confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through next weekend.

AVIATION

Expect VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Tuesday night. Winds will remain gusty out of the W-NW during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts to 25KT to 35KT. Localized -SHRA chances for KBAM, KEKO, and KENV, as well as localized areas of BLDU for northern and central NV terminals possible through 00Z Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather concerns possible over the next few days as a departing storm system is replaced by northwesterly flow aloft. Upper level trough will bring a 35% to 55% chance for additional light rain showers for northern NV Tuesday, but breezy W-NW winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will accompany the shower chances. Winds will remain breezy Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds offshore of California, and the upper trough moves slowly east. This will place NV under NW flow aloft, which will allow for quiet weather conditions, but warming temperatures, lower RH levels will offset the dry conditions keeping fire weather concerns elevated. After Thursday winds will relax a bit during the afternoons, but remain generally westerly at 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible