textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering isolated dry storms continue this afternoon

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage for Friday and into the weekend. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

* Temperatures will begin cooling tomorrow and Saturday with readings below to near normal

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The high pressure system to the east continues to feed monsoonal moisture into eastern Nevada, with storms already ongoing in White Pine and southeastern Elko county. These storms are expected to spread into northeastern Elko county this afternoon before dying out around sunset. Hazardous fire behavior from thunderstorm winds continues to be a threat today, as well as new ignitions from lightning. Monsoonal moisture continues in eastern Nevada through the weekend but beginning tomorrow its joined by an influx of Pacific moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Iselle. This additional moisture is expected to result in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Additionally, a level 1 Marginal risk of excessive rainfall is in place for much of the forecast area tomorrow and Saturday. Storms may also pose a debris flow threat to recent fires and fresh burn scars. Overcast skies and rain cooled air will also decrease high temperatures below normal values. The tropical moisture dissipates by Sunday but some monsoonal moisture will still be capable of spawning isolated thunderstorms through midweek as the high pressure center looks to take its time in breaking down.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in thunderstorm activity through Saturday. SST and SerpISC were again used to better represent thunderstorm probabilities in eastern NV between 18Z today and 03Z tomorrow.

AVIATION

Thunderstorms continue to have intermittent impacts at KELY and KENV this afternoon. Additionally, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect all sites starting tomorrow, although the extent of impacts was too low for TAF inclusion at some sites for the 18Z forecast. All sites except KENV will experience gusty winds up to 25KT this afternoon, and gusts up to 40KT are possible near thunderstorms. No sustained visibility or ceiling impacts are expected, although brief decreased visibility is possible with direct thunderstorm impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated storm activity will impact eastern NV through Thursday evening including FWZ 425/469/470. Hazards will continue to be gusty erratic winds leading to extreme fire behavior and dangerous lightning. Friday evening into Saturday potential increases for heavy rainfall introducing the hazard of debris flows especially over fresh burn scars. This increase in rainfall will impact all fire weather zones except for western portions of FWZ437.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.