textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Low probability for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak storm system clips northern Nevada.

* Record to near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada returns Tuesday, lasting through Friday.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As the ridging and HPC pattern over the southwestern CONUS breaks down this week an upper level shortwave will ride zonal flow over the western CONUS through the Great Basin tonight. Boundary forcing and perhaps some diurnal instability will be enough to initiate some low probability isolated storm activity over northern NV this evening and tonight, but the moisture profile over the area doesn't offer much in the way of support. PW values hovering around half an inch combined with elevated bases will lead to dry convection if storms do initiate. Little to no accumulating rainfall is expected with this system.

The area will be under a short-lived post frontal regime on Tuesday before ridging builds back into the southwestern CONUS for much of the rest of this week. This will allow warm afternoon high temperatures to continue through Thursday ranging 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s.

Beyond Friday the ridging over the region gets squeezed eastward as a large longwave ULT pushes into the Pacific Northwest Friday evening. This will tighten the gradient over the area bringing the potential for gusty winds and impactful precipitation by the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Very low confidence exists in evening shower and thunderstorm activity Monday evening. That being said NBM represented even low chances very poorly so a combination of SST and SerpISC was used to increase Pops enough to generate some low chance IsoT across northern NV from 22Z to 04Z tonight. Moderate confidence exists in continued warm temperatures each afternoon through this week. Very low confidence exists in the potential for an impactful storm system through the area this weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon at all terminals. Low chances for VCTS exists Monday evening into Tuesday morning at KEKO, KELY, and KWMC. Main threat with TS will be gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning. Otherwise westerly flow Monday evening will be light at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Low to elevated fire weather conditions possible for northern Nevada today as an upper level trough is making progress on its transit through the state today. This trough though weak, and having meager moisture to work with, will generate a low 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening for zones 438, 469, and 470. Hazards from storms should they form will be strong gusty outflow winds up to 40KT, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. this trough will shift wast Tuesday allowing high pressure to build back in over the region.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.