textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2025

* Isolated to scattered (fifteen to forty percent chance) showers in Central Nevada on Wednesday

* Confidence continues to increase in a wet storm system developing for the upcoming weekend

UPDATE

Issued at 247 AM PDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Forecast continues on track for today through tomorrow. No changes are required for this package.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Tranquil weather continues tonight into Tuesday with a slight warmup Tuesday afternoon to near normal temperatures thanks to a shift from northwesterly to zonal flow in the general pattern. Tuesday night an LPC off the CA coast moves ashore and pushes into southern NV by Wednesday morning. The bulk of energy with this system stays to the south of the CWA but southerly flow in the eastern flank will push enough moisture (0.5-0.6 PW over Nye/White Pine Counties) and vorticity into central NV to initiate shower activity Wednesday PM. QPF has backed off on rainfall amounts from ECMWF model guidance suggests 0.05-0.15 over northern Nye by Wednesday night.

The main feature of the long term forecast continues to be the large upper level trough set to bring significant precipitation to the Great Basin and western CONUS in general. This is considered to be an AR event so moisture associated with the system will be plentiful. Some disagreement still exists in timing of precipitation for northern and central NV. GFS brings shower activity into northern NV earlier Saturday evening and holds activity over the region through midday Sunday. ECMWF guidance, however, is about 6 hours slower and confines the bulk of precipitation to overnight and early morning on Sunday. Because of this later passage and timing of shower activity ECMWF is suggesting a changeover to snow for lower elevations. Snow level grids to not match up with Euro prognosis but if Euro is correct precipitation type and precipitation accumulation forecasts Saturday night and Sunday will be tricky. Future forecasts will need to monitor the timing implications as model runs progress.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in some light shower activity over central NV on Wednesday. NBM has finally synced up with model guidance on spatial coverage of showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. WPC QPF has diminished what was already a lackluster output by showers over Nye and White Pine Counties. Confidence continues to grow on a strong storm system returning precipitation to the northern half of the CWA this weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today and tonight. Sunny today with winds generally 10kts or less. Increasing clouds tonight into Wednesday. Rain showers develop Wednesday afternoon across portions of Central Nevada. There will be a 10-15% chance of rain at KTPH Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a 35% chance of rain at KELY Wednesday evening and night. Dry condition persist at the remaining TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns in the current forecast. The transition toward winter is continuing to prevent wind and minimum RH from reaching critical thresholds. Light showers are possible in central Nevada on Wednesday, otherwise expect to remain dry through the end of the week.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.