textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend will create moderate HeatRisk this week

* Hot, dry, windy fire weather conditions possible Thursday through Saturday

* System for the upcoming weekend will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures to the region

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear this morning across northern and central Nevada with light winds. For today, expect a west to east flow aloft across the area. Heights will continue their slow rise with this afternoon high temperatures in the 90s. Winds will remain light with some afternoon breezes in central Nevada. Look for quiet and calm conditions tonight with lows in the 50s.

For Tuesday, mid-level moisture will slowly seep with limited CAPE values across northern Nevada. Expecting cumulus buildups during the afternoon as high temperatures climb to the mid to upper 90s. These temperatures will bring minor to moderate HeatRisk to the area. Winds will generally be light with typical afternoon gusts to 20 mph. Dry weather persists during the night with lows in the 50s.

The slow moisture seep continues Wednesday. Expecting to see cumulus buildups during the afternoon especially across central Nevada. Highs will continue to be in the 90s with lows in the 50s.

Upper level ridge will continue to reside across the southern United States for Thursday. Moisture across the area continues on a slow increase, enough such that isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of east-central and northeast portions of the forecast area. Southwest flow will bring afternoon wind gusts to the area, especially across northern Nevada. Highs will be in the 90s with lows in the 50s.

The aforementioned upper ridge across northern Mexico will combine with an upper low off the western coast of Canada will wobble to the southeast across the Pacific Northwest states roughly Friday. This will increase the pressure gradient over the region across the area, bringing the potential for hot, dry, windy fire weather conditions both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The system will drags its axis across the northern border Friday PM and Saturday increasing moisture in the area. Forcing seems a bit insufficient at this time for meaningful precipitation or thunderstorm development but future model runs should be monitored. The wave will drag a cold front through the region bringing cooler temperatures to the area for the upcoming weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high as the warming trend is now coming into view. HeatRisk values will be minor to moderate for the area by Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Growing confidence in a high dry windy setup for Friday and Saturday. Low confidence exists in the timing and placement of the upcoming weekend storm system.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are will continue at all terminals through the 24 hour period. Look for late morning and early afternoon breezy winds develop across the central terminals of KTPH-KELY S-SW10-15G25KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Quiet weather conditions continue across the forecast area with warming temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s by mid- week. Next round of isolated thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon mainly over east-central Nevada, but probabilities remain around ten to fifteen percent at this time. Elevated to critical fire weather concerns may develop on Thursday through Saturday as winds become breezy to locally windy with low minimum relative humidity values.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.