textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather and temperatures in the 90s through Wednesday

* Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures

* Incoming weather system this weekend increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mainly clear skies are continuing across Northeastern Nevada today as high pressure continues to sit over the West Coast. High pressure will continue to dictate the weather over Nevada through Thursday with clear skies and daytime temperatures in the mid 90s. The upper level pattern begins to break down on Thursday, allowing some increasing moisture and instability in central Nevada during the afternoon hours. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible as a result. Thunder potential increases for Friday, with a quick moving trough beginning its passage over the West. Moisture associated with the trough is expected to bring precipitable water values to 0.6-0.8 inches by Saturday with the highest values in northern Nevada. This would result in a mixed or transition style event with a combination of dry and wet thunderstorms starting late morning on Friday and continuing through late afternoon Saturday. No storms are currently forecast for Sunday but a slight improvement in the atmospheric profile could easily change that. Temperatures this weekend will be 5-10 degrees cooler as a result of the trough. Model spread increases significantly starting Sunday but the current favored solutions are showing either zonal or ridged upper level flow to start next week. Both options would result in dry conditions and warming temperatures, although the intensity of the warming trend is still in question.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in continued high pressure and warm and quiet conditions through Wednesday. Confidence remains low regarding thunder on Thursday as well as the split of wet and dry thunder for Friday and Saturday. Thunder coverage was increased on Thursday as base NBM output was too limited.

AVIATION

Gusty winds up to 25KT expected at all sites this afternoon, otherwise light winds and VFR conditions are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today and tomorrow due to extremely dry conditions and elevated afternoon winds around 25 mph. Increasing moisture and instability for Thursday may spark a few isolated dry thunderstorms in zones 425/426/427. Mixed showers and thunderstorms are expected in northern Nevada on Friday and Saturday, while increasing winds in central Nevada may lead to critical conditions for Friday. Storms exit for Sunday, leaving cooler but warming conditions. Any RH increases due to this system are not expected to persist beyond Monday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.