textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Record warmth across all of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon

* Record warmth in most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon

* Turning cooler Monday and Tuesday

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow are likely Monday evening through Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will build northward across the Silver State this afternoon into the upcoming weekend. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon will be six to eight degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon. Near record warmth is expected in Ely and Tonopah this afternoon. Maximum temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon will be around twenty degrees above normal for this time of year. Record warmth is expected across all of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon will be sixteen to eighteen degrees above seasonal values. Record warmth is anticipated in the majority of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon.

A trough of low pressure will move southward through Southern Idaho Monday. Precipitation ahead of this trough of low pressure should reach Northern Nevada Monday evening. Periods of valley rain and mountain snow are likely Monday night through Tuesday night. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet Monday evening, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Tuesday morning. The majority of this precipitation will fall Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth of an inch of rain or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Monday evening through Tuesday night:

Wells - 75% Spring Creek - 70% Elko - 55% Battle Mountain - 55% Carlin - 55% Winnemucca - 50% Austin - 50% Ely - 45% Eureka - 45% West Wendover - 20%

There may be a brief break in precipitation chances Wednesday, before the next storm system Wednesday night and Thursday. A cooling trend is expected Monday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding record warmth across all of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon. High forecast confidence in record warmth in most of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon. High forecast confidence regarding a cooling trend Monday and Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence in periods of valley rain and mountain snow Monday evening through Tuesday night. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours, with gentle breezes.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.