textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and breezy conditions over central and northern Nevada lasting through Thursday afternoon.

* Increasing precipitation chances this weekend from several upper level trough systems.

* Cooler temperatures reaching several degrees below normal over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Dry and windy conditions over central and northern Nevada this afternoon and over the next few days as a low pressure system over the northwestern coast keeps a near zonal flow over Nevada with quick moving storm systems staying to the north. Elevated wind speeds from the west expected to reach up to 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 25-30 mph this afternoon, while winds over the next two days be slightly weaker at 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures expected to be near or just a few degrees below normal, with highs staying in the upper 50s with overnight lows at near normal in the 20s.

By late Thursday and overnight into Friday, the low pressure system to the northwest will move south along the Pacific coastline, shifting the zonal flow into a northeast flow. This flow will have weak dynamic forcing over northeastern Nevada which will cause saturation to occur and potential for some very light showers, mainly over the high mountains. By Friday afternoon, chances increase for more precipitation across eastern Nevada as the northeast flow continues to give weak dynamic forcing with increase precipitation over the mountains and reaching into the valleys as PWAT amounts increases up to 0.5 inches. A slight cooling in temperatures is expected with highs staying just a few degrees below normal in the mid 50s.

Saturday, the low pressure system over the northwest continues to bring a northeast flow over Nevada and begin to push east, while at the same time, another low pressure system further south in the Pacific will push into the southwestern CONUS with subtropical moisture. Current models has the moisture from this second upper level system spread over the southwestern states and converge into the first upper level system in the northwest. This will bring some of that subtropical moisture into Nevada that will increase the chance for more precipitation across central and northern Nevada, with highest amounts expected over Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties. Precipitation chances are expected to last into Sunday morning then begin to dissipate as the front from both systems will push eastward out of Nevada with dry conditions returning Monday. Cooler temperatures expected over the weekend as highs expected to be in the 50s, then drop to several degrees below normal on Sunday with much of central and northern Nevada reaching only in the 40s. Monday will see temperatures slightly rise back up but still be a few degrees below normal in the low 50s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry, breezy conditions this afternoon through Thursday afternoon. Moderate confidence in regards to the northwestern low pressure system moving south into Nevada with increasing chances for precipitation Thursday and Friday. Moderate confidence in regards to a second low pressure system converging over the southwest with higher chances for precipitation. Moderate confidence in regards to dry conditions returning Monday. No changes to the grids at this time.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Breezy westerly conditions this afternoon at all northern terminals with speeds up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts. Breezy southerly conditions at all central terminals with speeds up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts. Winds expected to dissipate this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Low fire weather conditions over the next several days for all zones. Breezy winds this afternoon with speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 25-30 mph as zonal westerly flow remains above Nevada from a low pressure system to the north. No critical fire weather concerns as min RH values remain high due with temperatures being just slightly below normal. By Thursday afternoon and through the weekend, a large upper level storm system to the northwest will push south into Nevada that will increase chances for precipitation through Friday. Over the weekend, another upper level system further south in the Pacific will push into the southwest with subtropical moisture and converge with the other upper level system, increasing precipitation chances higher.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.