textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A flood watch remains in effect for White Pine, northern Nye, southern Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties through 5 AM this morning due to a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

* Most locations across northeastern and central Nevada are projected to receive an additional quarter inch to a half inch of rainfall between this morning and Tuesday afternoon.

* Tonight into Tuesday morning snow levels lower to around 5500 feet across the region with many summits and valleys expected to receive between a trace and a half inch of snow. * Dry Wednesday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper low that absorbed the remnants of Hurricane Rachel and its moisture will sit atop the Great Basin through Tuesday, keeping showers in place and producing yet another quarter to half inch of precipitation the rest of tonight through Tuesday afternoon, some of which may fall as snow as temperatures drop. Most snow will be found at high elevations, however valleys in eastern Nevada could wake up to about a quarter inch of snow on Tuesday. Any valley snow will be short lived as the low exits to the east Tuesday, allowing high temperatures to rise from the low 50s to the upper 60s by Thursday. Tuesday will also be the final day for precipitation, with dry weather and continued warming expected through the end of the forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in continuing showers through Tuesday, with moderate confidence in accumulation totals and snowfall potential. Moderate confidence in warming temperatures and dry conditions beyond Tuesday. The only changes made to the NBM output was to increase the chance of thunderstorms the rest of tonight through this afternoon.

AVIATION

With the exception of KWMC, light to moderate rain showers will continue to impact all terminals today, with MVFR conditions likely in the heavier showers. Additionally, through 00Z Tuesday there will be a 15% chance of thunderstorms at KEKO, KENV, KELY and KTPH. Showers linger overnight with rain changing to snow at KELY around 04Z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions continue across Zone 437. For most of the rest of northern and central Nevada scattered to numerous showers continue today, along with a 15% chance of thunderstorms. Colder tonight into Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow in these areas. Showers taper off Tuesday afternoon from west to east with dry conditions across the region Tuesday night through the remainder of the week.

HYDROLOGY

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall continue to pose a threat for runoff and debris flow, particularly in areas of steep terrain, poor drainage, or recent fire scars. A flood watch remains in effect for much of the forecast area through 5 AM this morning. Light to moderate showers will continue the later this morning and into Tuesday, with showers ending from west to east by Tuesday evening.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch until 5 AM PDT early this morning NVZ031-033>035-037>041.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning NVZ033-035-040-041.