textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances diminish each afternoon, ending by Sunday

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada Friday afternoon

* Above average temperatures continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level high pressure system is shifting northwest, effectively cutting off monsoonal moisture. While afternoon storm chances persist through Saturday, storms are expected to decrease in coverage and intensity each day. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 90s to potential triple digits while lows remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. The hottest day is currently forecast for tomorrow, with Heat Advisories in effect and a moderate risk of heat related illnesses in northern Nevada. Most models have this pattern continuing through the end of the month, with the high remaining in place and suppressing moisture transport to Nevada. The potential outlier solution, however, shows the high wobbling to the east as early as Tuesday, which would allow some moisture and storm chances to return to the forecast area. This is currently a low confidence solution but would be an impactful one.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in decreasing storm chances through Saturday. High confidence in above average temperatures and dry conditions Sunday and Monday. Very low confidence in potential moisture return mid week. No changes made to base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 20KT are expected this afternoon at KTPH and KWMC. Prob30s are in effect for afternoon thunderstorms which have a chance of impacting KEKO and KELY, along with associated strong winds up to 50KT and potential decreased visibility due to heavy rain. All sites expect light winds and VFR conditions after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain the primary concern over the next several days, mainly in eastern and central Nevada. Gusty afternoon winds through Sunday will reach elevated levels, but daytime RH values will be too high for any serious fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday NVZ030-031-033-036-038.