textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Lingering isolated dry storm continue this afternoon

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage later on Friday and into the weekend. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

* Temperatures will begin cooling tomorrow and Saturday with readings near normal

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear this morning across northern and central Nevada. Current weather pattern is showing a large expansive ridge across Arizona and New Mexico with an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest states. For today, a southwesterly flow continues over the forecast area, allowing limited mid-level moisture to move into portions of central and northern Nevada. This will continue the trend in afternoon convection across the area. Looking for storms to be more on the dry side. Antecedent drought conditions and dried out fuels are mitigating the effects of any precipitation associated with convection this week. As a result, lightning strikes have been successful in igniting numerous fires across the area. Thunderstorms today will continue this trend, leading to possible new fire starts. Highs today will be in the 90s with lows in the 50s. Winds will be breezy with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon.

The area receives a double shot of moisture on Friday and into the weekend as residual moisture from a tropical system off the CA Coast will filter into western Nevada. Precipitable water values are forecast to be anomalously high (1+ to 1.2 inches) on Friday. This has resulted in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the area according to the Weather Prediction Center. Rainfall amounts Friday and Friday night will range 0.25-0.5 inches across the forecast area. Said rainfall and resulting cloud cover will lead to a cooling trend into the weekend that will send temperatures a few degrees below normal for late August. Cooler high temperatures are expected during the afternoon with readings in the 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.

Saturday is a bit concerning with respect to active weather and strong storms. The atmosphere is expected to remain rather moist with precipitable water values at or above 0.75 inches. Lapse rates are forecast to steepen with lifted indices forecast to be around -2C to -4C or so, and will be coincident with 0-3km bulk shear values of 30-40 knots. DCAPE values in central Nevada will be at or above 1000K/kg, which could lead to outflow wind gusts greater than 58 mph. Will need to monitor the ongoing situation. Cooling continues across the forecast area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will dip into the 40s and 50s.

Beyond the weekend the 4C/ULT hybrid setup looks to break down resulting in the potential for quieter weather as we head into September.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for afternoon thunderstorm activity over the area today. Confidence is moderate regarding increased precipitation Friday and Saturday as well as an associated cooling trend. Adjustments were made to Wx, PoP grids in the short term to highlight thunderstorm development.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category across all terminals today. VCTS is anticipated at KENV and KELY through this afternoon. Expected erratic and gusty winds in and around TS with speeds up to 40KT. Expect afternoon wind gusts at all terminals to be in the 20-25KT range out of the southwest through tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry thunderstorms will again develop this afternoon and evening across portions of northern and central Nevada. The main concerns continue to be hazardous cloud to ground lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds around 50 mph. Storms are expected to move in a southwest to northeast direction at speeds of 10 to 20 mph. Look for convective activity to increase significantly on Friday as moisture shifts north and east. Though storms are initially going to be dry in the beginning, the moisture surge is expected to bring wetter storms more quickly during the late morning and afternoon on Friday, lasting into Saturday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.