textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Critical fire weather condtions are likely in most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday

* Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening

* Much cooler this weekend

* A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move eastward across the Silver State this afternoon. The passage of this trough of low pressure should trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph, small hail, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. There is a possibility (15-29%) of damaging wind gusts in Eastern White Pine County this afternoon into this evening.

Zonal flow aloft is anticipated Thursday and Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Eastern Nevada Thursday due to west wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday due to west wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 10 percent.

A cyclone aloft will meander around the Pacific Northwest this weekend. A Wind Advisory may be required for Northern and Central Nevada Saturday. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be sixteen to eighteen degrees below seasonal values. Low temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night will be eleven to thirteen degrees below seasonal values. A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. Here are probabilities of minimum temperatures of 35 degrees or lower for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night:

Montello - 80% Spring Creek - 75% Wells - 75% Eureka - 75% Ruby Lake - 75% Ely - 70% Carlin - 70% Elko - 65% Ruth - 55% Jackpot - 50%

A warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday. Despite this warming trend, temperatures will remain below seasonal values. Dry weather will prevail early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a few strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence in critical fire weather condtions in most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler temperatures this weekend. Moderate forecast confidence regarding widespread frost in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. No deviations from the NBM model output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. VCTS at KELY and KENV this afternoon into this evening. South to southwest wind gusts near 25 knots expected at KELY and KBAM this afternoon into this evening. Southwest to west wind gusts near 20 knots anticipated at KEKO, KWMC, KENV, and KTPH this afternoon into this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday due to west wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity as low as 10 percent.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470