textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry and breezy thru Friday

* Stronger winds Saturday combine with low minimum relative humidity to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

* Active pattern early next week brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Wednesday)

Zonal flow pattern remains in place thru Friday with dry and warm weather present along with the typical afternoon breezes. Daytime high temperatures will reside around 10 degrees warmer than normal for most location across the forecast area. A weak shortwave trof passing thru on Thursday will bring a few degrees of cooling across northern Nevada, but temperatures will rebound by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s with upper 30s across the typical colder valleys.

Robust upper level trof will move into the PacNW Saturday with upper level flow over Nevada subsequently transitioning to southwesterly in response. The resulting tightening of the pressure gradient will bring a notable increase in wind speeds Saturday. West-southwesterly gusts 30 to 35 mph are expected with winds shifting north-northwesterly Saturday night while concurrently easing as the trof and attendant dry surface cold front move thru the Silver State. Atmospheric moisture is indicated to increase Saturday under the stronger southwesterly flow regime, but not enough to produce any meaningful chance of precipitation. Enhanced cloud cover along the frontal boundary will be noted Saturday afternoon though thunderstorms look unlikely with latest numerical solutions backing off on what was already a very low chance of thunderstorms. Slightly better chance for isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across White Pine and eastern Elko Counties, but is still low confidence with the prognostics indicating a very borderline environment for thunderstorm development and convective buildups remain the more likely fare at this time.

Transition to an active upper level pattern over Nevada early next week will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. There will be opportunity for accumulating rainfall though high uncertainty exists in exact amounts at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Utilized various model blends Sunday afternoon thru early next week to produce PoP and weather fields that looked reasonable based on latest forecast prognostics. Additional minor changes were also made to the NBM forecast with regard to temperature and winds. Confidence is high with regard to warm, dry, and breezy weather thru the remainder of the week. Confidence is high in elevated to critical fire weather conditions Saturday. Low confidence for isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Low confidence in the prospect of accumulating rainfall early next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals thru Wednesday night with no precipitation in the forecast. Main concern will be afternoon breezes later today, begin around 18Z-19Z, and gusts 20-30KTs are expected at all terminals thru early evening, around 02Z-04Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and warm weather prevails across Northern and Central Nevada thru Friday along with the typical afternoon breezes, gusts 20 to 30 mph can be expected. Minimum relative humidity values will be around 15% or less each afternoon with daytime high temperatures residing around 10 degrees warmer than normal thru Friday as well. Weather pattern shifts Saturday with winds becoming stronger and west-southwesterly gusts 30 to 35 mph look likely as a dry surface cold front moves thru from the northwest. Winds shift north-northwestrerly Saturday evening and overnight while concurrently easing. Minimum afternoon relative humidity also looks to reside around 15 percent or less and the combination of elevated wind and low RH Saturday will lead to elevated or critical fire weather conditions. Enhanced cloud cover will be present along the frontal boundary, though isolated thunderstorms look unlikely with latest numerical solutions backing off on what was already a very low chance of thunderstorms. Slightly better chance for isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of fire weather zones 469, 470, and 425, but is still low confidence with the prognostics indicating a very borderline environment for thunderstorm development and convective buildups remain the more likely fare at this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.