textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm through at least Thursday

* Chance of valley rain and mountain snow Thursday afternoon through Friday evening

* Strong, gusty winds in Central Nevada Friday and Saturday

* Precipitation chances increase this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will slowly move eastward across the Western United States this afternoon into Thursday. High temperatures each afternoon today through Thursday should be twelve to fourteen degrees above normal for this time of year. An upper-level area of low pressure will move eastward across the Eastern Pacific Thursday and Friday, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain snow Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Snow levels will remain around 9,000 feet. The majority of precipitation will fall Friday afternoon and Friday evening. South wind gusts near 50 mph are possible in Central Nevada Friday afternoon and Friday evening. A Wind Advisory may be required. Isolated thunderstorms are possible both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes.

The aforementioned cyclone aloft will get absorbed into a much larger upper-level area of low pressure just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday. This storm system will move inland over the Pacific Northwest Sunday. Periods of precipitation are expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Snow levels will start at around 8,000 feet Saturday afternoon, before dropping to about 5,500 feet Sunday night. The majority of this precipitation will fall Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Here are probabilities of one quarter of an inch of rain or more for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon through Sunday night:

Wells - 75% Spring Creek - 70% Winnemucca - 55% Battle Mountain - 55% Carlin - 55% Austin - 55% Elko - 50% Ely - 50% Eureka - 45% West Wendover - 15%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding unseasonably warm weather today through at least Thursday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding valley rain and mountain snow Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Moderate forecast confidence regarding strong, gusty winds in Central Nevada Friday and Saturday. High forecast confidence in precipitation chances increasing this weekend.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours. Westerly wind gusts near 20 knots are expected at all terminals this afternoon into this evening.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.