textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Elko County Wednesday afternoon
* Elevated fire weather conditions in Central Nevada Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
* Warming trend today through Monday
DISCUSSION
(Today through Monday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Persistent ridging over the eastern US will slow the retreat of the trough over the West but a slow warming trend is still expected, with highs increasing to the 80s by Friday. Conditions will mostly remain dry during this time, although a weak low center riding the trough on Wednesday could spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms in Northeastern Elko county. Winds will mostly be light, with the exception of Thursday when breezy conditions develop in Central Nevada. The high to the east diminishes by the weekend, allowing the upper air pattern to progress and ridging to begin to return to the West. This will allow temperatures to spike for the holiday weekend, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s and some early, low confidence, excessive heat indicators developing. Heat is expected to continue into next week, with highs in the mid 90s and breezy conditions returning in Central Nevada.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in increasing temperatures through the weekend, however confidence in excessive heat potential Saturday and Sunday is low. Low confidence in shower and thunder potential on Wednesday, and moderate confidence in quiet conditions for the rest of the forecast. No changes were made to base NBM output.
AVIATION
VFR conditions and winds less than 10KT at all sites today.
FIRE WEATHER
Conditions dry out starting Wednesday, in connection with a warming trend. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Central Nevada Thursday due to wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 9 percent, with about a 20% chance of winds increasing to above critical thresholds. Winds die down again Friday through Sunday as temperatures continue to warm.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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