textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers and thunderstorms impact central and eastern Nevada this evening.

* Fair weather returns Wednesday though breezes will be present at the end of the week.

* Gradual warming trend through rest of the week followed by cooling trend over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Light isolated rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms over central and eastern Nevada will continue into the evening hours and dissipate to clearer skies as the upper level trough begins to weaken and starts to move northeast into Utah by early Wednesday morning. As the upper level trough moves out of Nevada, another very broad upper level trough forms behind the main trough that will be centralized more towards southern California. This will aid in keeping flow pattern over Nevada to a more west/southwest flow that will bring a gradual warming in temperatures through the week with highs reaching back into the 80s by Thursday. Winds will also be affected, staying at a light to moderately breezy winds up to 5-15 mph, with some gusts reaching up to 20 mph. As the weekend approaches, a stronger more defined trough to the northwest along the US-Canadian border will push through the northwestern CONUS as the broad upper level trough to the south weakens. The stronger trough to the northwest will extend into Nevada with cooler temperatures, as highs expected to cool down into the 60s to 70s over the weekend. Unfortunately, calm, dry weather conditions will be the dominant weather event through the week as precipitation is not expected with any of these additional upper troughs over Nevada as there isn't much moisture involved in these systems.

End of the weekend and into next week, models are showing a third upper level trough moving into the western coast with increasing confidence that it will extend south over Nevada. Confidence as to the strength and timing begin to wane. At the same time, models are also showing Hurricane Polo (weakening to a tropical storm) will move along the Pacific Coast in western Mexico and push into the southwest. Confidence remains low at this time as the timing and position of the storm differ within the models with some indicating it approaching early next week, while others suggest it coming later next week and weakening even further before crossing into the US.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions to be the dominant condition at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Isolated showers with some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across central and eastern Nevada. VCSH conditions over KEKO, KELY, and KENV with a PROB30 for -TSRA conditions over the airport, which might drop conditions into MVFR or lower as it moves over the airport. Winds generally light from the northwest below 10 kts, however gusty erratic winds from passing storms are possible. This evening, weather conditions dissipate to clearer skies with light winds below 10 kts shifting from the south.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather conditions remain low with no fire weather concerns as a series of upper level troughs move through the Great Basin region, keeping temperatures moderate along with light winds. Isolated showers over the central and eastern zones will dissipate tonight into clear, dry conditions that will continue through the week. Gradual warming temperatures reaching just a few degrees above normal this week, followed by cooler temperatures returning over the weekend. Friday, breezy winds over northern Nevada as wind gusts reach up to 40-50 mph as stronger low pressure system move in Friday and over the weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns as humidity drops to just above 15%, but is not expected to reach critical conditions.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.