textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Elevated and critical fire weather conditions through this afternoon

* Light precipitation across northern Nevada beginning this evening thru tomorrow night

* Fair weather and warmer temperatures the latter half of the week and this weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mid and high clouds continue to march across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. The reason for this is due to low pressure pushing across the Pacific Northwest later this afternoon and tonight. Winds are breezy to locally windy this afternoon and it will continue into the overnight. Light rain showers will develop later this evening through tomorrow. Forecast amounts appear scant with the highest probabilities expected across northern Elko county. The percent chance for a tenth of an inch or greater is sixty-five percent in Owyhee and fifty-seven percent at Jackpot. For locales along the Humboldt River valley in Elko county, expect probabilities of eighteen, twenty, and seventeen percent across Elko, Wells, and West Wendover, respectively. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the 40s.

For Tuesday, the base of the upper trough will be passing across northern Nevada. Another round of light showers are expected across the east and north during the afternoon. Lifted indices are forecast to be slightly negative across the Jarbidge wilderness and will continue the threat for isolated thunderstorms in northern Elko county. Winds will become breezy to locally windy during the afternoon, mainly out of the west. Winds will be 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. High temperatures will be in the 70s with some low 80s in central Nevada. Look for the winds diminishing during the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

From Wednesday through the weekend, upper level ridging will remain off the west coast of the United States. This will bring typical breezy afternoon winds with highs during the mid-week period ranging in the 70s and 80s. Look for warming each afternoon with highs on Friday in the 80s and 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. At this time, no precipitation is forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high in a weak weather system moving across northern Nevada. Confidence is moderate to high with respect to northwest flow keeping things dry across the area after Tuesday with gradually warming temperatures. Minor modifications done with the NBM PoP, weather, wind, and wind gusts grids in the short term to better depict elevated/critical fire conditions across northern and central Nevada.

AVIATION

Expect VFR conditions through the upcoming twenty-four hour period. Winds will remain gusty during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts to 30KT. Localized BLDU can hamper VSBY but not expected to be widespread. -SHRA will develop mainly north of US Highway 50 later this evening and tonight. Strong winds to 30KT will redevelop 18Z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Critical fire conditions continues today across the northeastern and east-central zones as a red flag warning remains in effect until 11PM PDT tonight. Minimum relative humidity values will be lowest across east central Nevada as readings remain in the single digit to the low teens and will combine with winds gusting to 35 mph. Light, on and off, shower activity is expected to develop later this evening and tonight with precipitation amounts varying between a trace to 0.20 inches across northern Nevada with the highest amounts expected in the mountainous locales. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected in the valleys. By tomorrow, a weak cold front is expected to progress to the south and east across the forecast area. The best chance for an isolated dry thunderstorm or two will be Tuesday afternoon, focused in and near fire weather zones 469 and 470. Though precipitable water and instability remain marginal, cumulus buildups will be the most likely scenario with the majority of thunderstorm activity residing to the east in Utah. Look for elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon as west-northwesterly winds redevelop with gusts to 30 mph. Minimum relative humidity looks to remain around 15% or higher Tuesday afternoon across most of the forecast area though readings around 15% or lower will likely be present across the southern half of fire weather zones 425 and 427 as well as zone 426. Quieter and less windy weather is expected Wednesday over most of the area, though some wind gusts to 25 mph are possible across the northern third of fire zone 470, leading to another day of elevated fire weather conditions across northeast Nevada.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 AM through 11 PM PDT this evening for NVZ425-426-427-470.