textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* One more day of dangerously warm temperatures

* Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Eastern Nevada early next week

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Unusually warm temperatures continue today, particularly in eastern Nevada, with temperatures in the upper 90s and a few locations expected to creep into the triple digits. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover expanding in the western half of the forecast zone, which will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the eastern half. These clouds are also the first sign of the incoming weather pattern that will be the main story of this forecast. A strong upper level high pressure center is setting up over the Plains and is expected to funnel monsoonal moisture into the Southwest for at least the next several days. Some of this moisture could arrive early enough to fuel isolated showers or thunderstorms today, but with about a 5-10% chance of occurrence, showers were not included in the final forecast. Moisture will absolutely arrive by tomorrow, however, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across mainly central Nevada. Moisture expands into northern Nevada by Tuesday, bringing the showers and thunderstorms with it. By Tuesday, precipitable water values are expected to be 200% to 250% of standard, and the most widespread shower coverage of the forecast is expected as a result. A somewhat drier air mass is expected to enter Nevada from the west for Wednesday through Friday, but it will still be anomalously wet and capable of supporting showers, especially in eastern Nevada. Given both the excessive atmospheric moisture available and the potential for showers to impact the same areas day after day, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is in place for Tuesday through Thursday. Atmospheric moisture and associated storm potential is currently expected to restrengthen for the weekend, but model variance regarding upper level steering flow means the location of the strongest moisture is still in flux.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well above normal temperatures today, cooling slightly for the rest of the forecast. Very low confidence in showers today. High confidence in monsoonal moisture this week, but moderate confidence in showers as described above. Moderate confidence in excessive rainfall potential Tuesday through Thursday. No changes were made to base NBM output.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and periods of gusty winds 20-25KT will be the prevailing conditions at all sites. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at any terminal, however probability was much too low for TAF inclusion, at about 10%. Any cell that does form near a terminal would be capable of producing gusty erratic winds up around 40KT.

FIRE WEATHER

One final day of unusually hot conditions before monsoonal moisture effectively cuts off fire weather concerns through the end of the week. Anomalously high atmospheric moisture is expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Wetting thunderstorm chances are present beginning Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-034-035-038-039.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.