textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

* Periods of precipitation for the rest of today and Thursday night

* Drier and warmer conditions Friday through the weekend

* Strong southerly winds gusts in Central Nevada Sunday and Monday

* A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central Nevada next week

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An LPC passing through central and southern NV Thursday provides enough dynamical forcing along its southeastern flank to create shower and isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Locations that will see storm activity include northern Nye, White Pine, and southern Elko Counties. Otherwise scattered showers for the rest of the area will ebb through the evening hours from west to east as the system moves to the east away from the state taking available moisture for precipitation with it.

A west-east oriented ridge builds into the Great Basin by Friday drying the region out and bumping afternoon highs up about 5-10 degrees above normal for mid February through Sunday.

Quiet weather is short-lived as a much stronger ULT begins to encroach on the state by Sunday PM. As the trough makes landfall over the west coast Sunday its southeastern edge will tighten the pressure gradient over the region. A resulting jet in the downstream flow will signal strengthening southwesterly wind speeds particularly over central and eastern NV Sunday and Monday.

The ULT will push a series of shortwaves through the region next week riding the parent troughs axis pattern. Current guidance is favorable for multiple wave passages Tuesday through Saturday. ECMWF guidance keeps a fairly healthy amount of moisture availability as each waves passes through the Basin. Exact timing of precipitation beginning over the area has danced back and forth between Monday and early Tuesday with recent runs. A Monday solution would mean initial rainfall that would changeover and stay snowfall by Tuesday. A Tuesday initiation would mean more snow than rain as cold air associated with the first wave passage entrenches over the area through the week. The potential exists with this staccato of shortwaves for a multi inch snowfall total by systems end the following weekend. Future model guidance will hone in on exact amounts and locations as time grows closer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in shower and thunderstorm activity over central and eastern NV today as well as drier, warmer weather through the weekend. Reasonable confidence exists in windy conditions for Sunday and Monday afternoon though winds speed are probably underdone by NBM per usual. Less confidence exists in precipitation amounts next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions at all terminals for most of the forecast period. Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity for KEKO, KELY, and KENV will create intermittent MVFR & IFR conditions at those locations this afternoon and evening. VCFG will also hamper VIS and CIGs at KELY early Friday morning before burning off my midday Friday. Afternoon winds will remain below 15KTs at all terminals through Friday afternoon.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.