textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Isolated (5-15% chance) thunderstorms linger overnight through around 8AM this Tuesday morning across mainly Elko and White Pine Counties.
* Record to near record warmth today through Friday.
* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather this weekend.
DISCUSSION
(Today through next Tuesday)
Weak instability across northeastern Nevada overnight will continue to produce isolated (5-15% chance) thunderstorm activity through the early to mid-morning hours. Storms are expected to produce very little rainfall, generally less than a tenth of an inch. Mostly sunny across the entire CWA late this morning and afternoon with dry and storm free conditions along with relatively light winds to around 10 mph.
The area will be under a short-lived post frontal regime later today before ridging builds back into the southwestern CONUS for much of the rest of this week. This will allow warm afternoon high temperatures to continue through Thursday ranging 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s.
Beyond Friday the ridging over the region gets squeezed eastward as a large longwave ULT pushes into the Pacific Northwest Friday evening. This will tighten the gradient over the area bringing the potential for gusty winds and impactful precipitation by the weekend.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence exists in continued warm temperatures each afternoon through this week. Very low confidence exists in the potential for an impactful storm system through the area this weekend.
AVIATION
Partly to mostly cloudy across much of northeastern NV early this morning with a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms at KEKO and KELY, and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms at KENV. Storm chances diminish by the mid-morning hours. Mostly sunny at all TAF terminals this afternoon with light winds to around 10 mph.
FIRE WEATHER
Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected to linger through the overnight hours across portions of Northeastern Nevada. Between 3AM and 8AM this morning the dry thunderstorm activity is expected to be limited to mainly just zones 470 and 425 as the system exits east into Utah. Mostly sunny across all zones this afternoon with valley winds generally in the 5 to 10 mph range.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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