textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong, gusty south to southwest winds in While Pine, Northeastern Nye, and Southeastern Elko Counties today

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon

* Strong, gusty winds may persist into Wednesday

* A few intense thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure system will move over Nevada, with the central portion over the Silver State. The associated cold front will push through Northern and Central Nevada by this afternoon, bringing in cooler and wetter conditions, increasing precipitation chances across the region. Ahead of the front, southerly/southwesterly flow will increase with speeds reaching up to 20-30 mph, gusts as high as 50 mph across Central Nevada in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to cool into the 70s behind the front, temperatures cooling into the 50s to 60s. Overnight, temperatures drop to just above freezing across the region. Precipitation is expected to be rain in the valleys with mountain snow as snow levels drop to just around 6000 feet. Latest model runs showing slight increase to precipitation amounts with passes and summits along US-50 seeing up to a trace to one inch of snow overnight.

Wednesday through Friday, upper ridging towards the central CONUS will stall the low pressure's movement, keeping it centered over Nevada. Precipitation chances continue across the region through Thursday, becoming more localized across northern Nevada by Friday. High temperatures stay cool with highs expected a couple of degrees below normal this time of year in the 60s, yet mountain snow expected to be trending down each day as snow levels stay above 7500 feet. Winds will also be trending down with breezy winds over eastern Nevada Wednesday, becoming light winds across the region Thursday and Friday as the low remains centered over the state.

Saturday, the system will push north merging into a longwave trough over Canada. Chances for some lingering showers remain across the state in the morning, but probabilities remain low below 20% for any wetting rain. By the afternoon, quiet weather conditions return. Warming temperature trend starting Saturday with highs back into the 70s. By Monday, temperatures expected to reach back into the 80s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for strong, gusty winds over Central Nevada today, with moderate confidence of active weather with the passing cold front. Moderate forecast confidence in the low pressure remains over Nevada through Friday.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions over all terminals for the next 24 hour period. South/southwest winds this afternoon will generally be between 15-25 kts, however stronger wind gusts expected up to 40 kts. Gusty winds may result in blowing dust which could lower VIS below 6SM.

FIRE WEATHER

Stronger winds will shift more towards Central Nevada today as the storm front moves over the Silver State, resulting in gusts up to 50 mph over zones 425 and 426. A Wind Advisory is in effect for those zones, with elevated fire weather conditions over those zones as RH values drop below 15%, however fuel moisture remains above critical threshold.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 11 AM PDT this morning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033>035-039-041