textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of the week

* Vegetation remains dry enough that any cloud to ground lightning strikes could produce fire starts that could spread rapidly

* Convective activity is expected to ramp up again later on this week and into the weekend

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Tuesday and Wednesday will still have chances for additional showers and thunderstorms, but at a lower chance (10-30%) and more across eastern Nevada as the high pressure system retrogrades west towards Arizona. Thursday through Sunday, models are showing better agreement for the weather pattern forming, with the upper level ridge maintaining a position across the desert southwest. An uptick in the convective activity is possible for Friday into the weekend as a piece of energy from the eastern Pacific crosses into California and into northern and central Nevada and will need to be watched. For Monday, the models start to become different with each other but not by much, with both showing a trough forming over the northwest and cresting into Nevada, however ECMWF is showing the trough to be weak and short lived, while GFS is showing the trough to be stronger with the chance for more moisture. Either outcome will still have much cooler temperatures for the day with a southwesterly flow present, yet is uncertain in regards to moisture. Temperatures will remain near or above normal for the week with highs in the 90s the first half of the week and dropping into the 80s over the weekend. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons with speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. These winds with drier air will cause some elevated fire weather concerns for Humboldt County, leaving it drier than others.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Near and short term forecast modifications were required to account for residual moisture and instability across the forecast area. Weather elements modified include PoP, Wx, wind, wind gust and sky grids.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will continue across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Convection is expected across KEKO, KENV, and KELY terminals with VCTS for the afternoon. Any afternoon thunderstorms could produce outflow wind gusts to 45KT. KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC are expected to remain storm free. Winds S-SW10-15G20-25KT this afternoon, decreasing after 02Z tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Residual subtropical moisture will continue to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through mid-week. Best chances will be across the eastern and central parts of the forecast area today with a fifteen to thirty percent probability. Impacts include outflow winds from any storm with erratic wind speeds of 50 to 55 mph along with cloud to ground lightning strikes. Drier air working its way east will help to limit convective activity to the east on Wednesday. Look for shower and thunderstorm activity to ramp up during the weekend with probabilities of forty to sixty percent at this time.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.