textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Flood watch in effect for central NV due to excessive rainfall and possible debris flows

* Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through the week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Very little change from yesterdays forecast as upper level ridging to the east and troughing to the west continue to funnel moisture into the Great Basin area. This will result in continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in central and eastern Nevada today before expanding to the entire forecast area tomorrow. Tomorrow is also expected to be the wettest day, with widespread accumulations of 0.25 and a band of 0.5 to 0.75 shaping up just south of the US-50 corridor. This has resulted in a Slight (15%) risk of excessive rainfall for tomorrow and isolated flash flooding is expected with the strongest cells. The trough begins to lift to the north on Friday, weakening the moisture flow for the weekend and mostly cutting off storms, leaving about a 10% to 20% chance through Sunday. Models remain in disagreement after Sunday, with the biggest question being the future of the current monsoon event. The general indication is still for the monsoon to continue in central Nevada, however the strength and northern extent of the event still depend on how the upper ridge behaves over the next few days and into next week. The current forecast is reflecting the more cut off scenario, with dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and some isolated showers for Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and thunderstorms through Friday, with moderate confidence in spatial extent of the heaviest accumulations. Moderate confidence in a mostly dry weekend. Low confidence in the forecast after Sunday as models continue to strongly disagree regarding the upper level pattern. No changes to NBM forecast.

AVIATION

Showers and thunderstorms are currently beginning across the area. Significant impacts are only expected at KENV/KELY/KTPH at this time but cannot be ruled out for KBAM/KEKO (about 10% to 20% probability). As usual, any cells near a terminal have the potential for gusty erratic winds 40KT or more and lowered ceilings and visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions and gusty afternoon winds up to 25KT will be the story through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Continued moisture flow into the Great Basin will result in several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While this moisture will keep humidity levels elevated and prevent dry- windy threats, heavy rainfall may pose flooding and debris flow threats, particularly for the New Pass and Ward fire areas. Lightning may also be a threat to fire personnel, although associated rainfall is expected to prevent any new starts from lightning.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through Thursday evening NVZ035-037-040-041.