textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A few strong thunderstorms possible in Humboldt and Northwestern Elko Counties this afternoon into this evening

* Above normal temperatures this week

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon

DISCUSSION

(Today through Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Atmospheric moisture will increase this afternoon, driven by low level southerly winds. When combined with daytime heating and instability, the result is isolated showers and thunderstorms in Humboldt County. There is a very low chance for an isolated cell or two across the rest of the forecast area, but instability is much less favorable. Afternoon convective potential continues for Monday and Tuesday, even as building high pressure over the four corners area strengthens. Ridging over Nevada and keeps temperatures unseasonably warm, with high temperatures in the 90s. Convective potential disappears by Wednesday as the high and ridge strengthen further, allowing temperatures to warm through the end of the week. High temperatures will increase into the upper 90s, with a few areas even reaching triple digits by Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s. There is already a moderate level of HeatRisk for Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. These days will need to be monitored for excessive heat impacts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in above normal temperatures through the forecast period, with moderate confidence in an additional warmup late week. Low confidence in showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Moderate confidence in dry weather Wednesday and beyond.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected at all sites, except KTPH where afternoon wind gusts near 20 knots are forecast for today.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated dry afternoon thunderstorms are the main fire weather threat for the next three days, with risk areas in zone 437 today, 425/437/470 Monday, and northern 469/470 Tuesday. Temperatures continue to be above normal. Afternoon breezes in Central Nevada may bring elevated fire weather conditions early this week, with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Critical wind thresholds are not expected to be met during this forecast.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.