textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm this afternoon.

* Strong wind gusts in Central Nevada Saturday and Sunday.

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday.

* Lingering showers and cooler conditions Tuesday.

* Dry Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Trough energy approaches Nevada from the Pacific Northwest today with the main impact being an increase in winds this afternoon. Most locations can expect sustained W to SW winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and early evening. High temperatures this afternoon will remain well above normal with most areas seeing a near repeat of yesterday's highs.

Major changes in the weather this weekend as cooler trough energy dropping in from the Pac NW helps to draw a very moist air mass up through southern California and into central and eastern Nevada. There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Sunday into Monday. The driest portion of the CWA Sunday and Monday will be Humboldt County where storm total precipitation is expected to range from around a tenth of an inch in the far NW corner of the county, to around a quarter to a third of an inch over the Santa Rosa mts and the Winnemucca area, up to around a half inch in the SE corner of the county near Valmy.

Much wetter conditions are expected for the remainder of the CWA from Sunday morning through Monday night. Most valley locations across Elko, Lander, Eureka and N Nye County can expect at least a half inch of rain between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning with an inch or more in the mountains. Even heavier rainfall amounts are expected across east-central NV, including the southern portion of Elko County, all of White Pine County and portions of NE Nye County where valley locations could easily receive an inch or more of rainfall. Rainfall could be heavy at times. A Flood Watch may be required. Ponding of water is likely in many areas later this weekend into early next week, with additional concern for debris flows across recent burn scars.

The upper level low/trough centered over the Pac NW Saturday morning will gradually dig south across western California through the weekend. By Monday evening the system will be centered over southern CA, then eject eastward through southern NV and into the four corners region by late Tuesday. Lighter rain showers are expected to continue over most of northern and central Nevada Monday night into Tuesday morning with showers ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Dry but noticeably cooler conditions are expected Wednesday through at least next Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence in unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts in Central Nevada Saturday and Sunday. High forecast confidence regarding significant rainfall in Eastern Nevada Sunday into Monday. High forecast confidence in a cooling trend Saturday through Monday.

AVIATION

Dry with VFR conditions today and tonight. Winds this afternoon will be W-SW at around 10-15 knots gusting 20-25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions persist today, though SW winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected this afternoon and early evening over most of the region. Northern portions of FWZs 438, 469 and 470 will have slightly stronger winds this afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect today for zones 437, 438, 469 and 470 for gusty winds and low RH from 1PM to 10PM.

Increasing winds and surface humidities Saturday afternoon as a significant storm system begins to move in across the Great Basin region. Minimum RHs Saturday afternoon will likely range in the 25 to 35% range, however due to gusty winds and ongoing wildfires across portions of northern Nevada the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for zones 424, 437, 438, 469 and 470. Rain showers will develop later Saturday into Sunday and continue into early next week bringing significant wetting rains to the region. Cooler next week. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM PDT to 10 PM PDT today for fire zones 437, 438, 469, and 470.

Fire Weather Watch 11 AM PDT to 11 PM PDT Saturday for fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470.