textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend thru Sunday

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons

* Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this weekend

* Precipitation returns to Nevada early next week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Tuesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: As the parent trough over central Canada slowly pushes east, a pair of shortwaves traversing the upstream flow of the ULT impact NV Wednesday and Thursday. Currently as the first wave is pushing north to south through the area showers and build ups are depicted on satellite and radar. A low chance for convection exists this afternoon but the environment is very underwhelming. Thursday's chances of convection have also diminished under similar conditions. The second wave has jogged slightly east from yesterdays positioning leading to less forcing (less favorable LI) and instability than previous runs.

The warming trend is still tracking as afternoon highs are increasing incrementally every afternoon. Highs in the 70s for much of northern and central NV are anticipated by Saturday and Sunday.

The next weather system to impact the Great Basin will form as an LPC off the west coast Saturday. As the low deepens it will travel south down the CA coast. As it migrates south this opens the region up to southwesterly flow in the downstream of the strengthening trough. PGF tightens enough for brisk winds Saturday afternoon and even stronger winds especially for central NV Sunday afternoon. The low will begin to push east Monday increasing vorticity and instability over the region by Monday morning. This system currently isn't sporting much in the way of moisture for the area so precipitation accumulations aren't very robust with the system so far. Rain is expected Monday and Tuesday as the low passes just south of the region. Stronger ridging builds into the area by middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in the warming trend occurring now through the weekend. Low confidence continues for showers and thunderstorm today and Thursday afternoon as the ingredients for convection are very underwhelming and have diminished since yesterday. Confidence is growing in strong gusty winds for central NV especially on Sunday. Low confidence exists in a system next week impacting the region with precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours. KEKO and KENV have a low chance of showers 21-03Z which may temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility but would not be long lived.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.