textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Eastern Nevada starting Monday

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are currently partly to mostly cloudy across northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Latest radar loop is depicting light shower activity across portions of Humboldt county as well as southern Eureka county. This activity is moving north at about 25 to 30 knots. The main feature across the country is a large longwave upper ridge that is centered over the upper Midwest states at this time. There is a southerly flow aloft across northern and central Nevada at this time that is bringing deep subtropical moisture to the area. For tonight, expect isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and portions of northern Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

For tomorrow, southerly flow will continue to bring in an anomalously moist air mass across the area. Model precipitable water values are forecast to be at or over an inch. With respect to climatology, this amounts to near the maximum value for July 14. Forecast surface-based CAPE will be between 200 to 600J/kg with the highest values in the northeast. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday. There is an above average potential for localized heavy rain given the moist atmosphere. Have issued a flash flood watch for much of the forecast area from Tuesday morning through the late Tuesday evening. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees with relatively light winds. Look for the convective activity to continue into the overnight with lows in the 50s.

On Wednesday, models are showing a drier air mass moving into the forecast area. Leftover showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly in the east-central portions of the area. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s. Winds will remain on the light side with gusts to 15 mph. Look for the showers to dissipate by evening with clouds scattering out. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s.

Thursday through the weekend, all models are showing highs returning to the low to upper 90s through this period. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible each afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to the short term grids include modifications to the PoP, weather, wind and wind gust grids to more accurately depict moist air mass that will be over the area. Confidence is high in the moisture push, but low in location of storm formation for Tuesday. Confidence is moderate in excessive rainfall potential Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the period though by Tuesday, increasing moisture will bring higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA at all terminals. Best chances for inclement weather will be in the east KEKO-KENV-KELY with the strongest cells producing intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds in and around -TSRA activity will be briefly gusty and erratic.

FIRE WEATHER

Subtropical moisture will keep streaming northward across northern and central Nevada tomorrow. This wet airmass will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms over all fire weather zones. For Tuesday, some of the thunderstorms could produce moderate to heavy rain. Periods of unsettled weather is expected to continue into the upcoming weekend.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NVZ031-033>041.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for NVZ033.