textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM PST Sun Dec 28 2025

* Warming trend to begin Monday lasting through New Years Eve.

* Winds will generally remain light through the week.

* Precipitation chances return for New Years Day into friday and again for the first half of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

2025 on track to depart with quiet weather, light winds, and cool morning lows, however 2026 looks to start on the wet side. Upper level ridge in building across the Silver state from the northern California coast. This will keep the region dry through New Years Eve. However this ridge will quickly break down New Years Day Thursday as a pair of upper level troughs make there way to Nevada. The first upper trough will move in from southern California, and again looks to be a mild Pacific system with some more tropical moisture being drawn in from the Eastern Pacific. That means another mix of lower to mid elevation rain, and mountain snow, that begins early New Years day across central Nevada shifting NE into eastern Nevada by early evening before departing Friday morning. Amounts with this system look to be decent, rain wise as Valleys and lower elevation passes look to get between 0.10 and 0.75. Humboldt county looks to be drier as this systems track will be more of a graze, but will still get between 0.05 and 0.35 of water. Snow levels will be high at around 7500 feet, with mountains like the Rubies seeing between 4 and 8 of new snow. After a brief break Friday afternoon, a second upper level trough will move in for early Saturday morning lasting through Sunday morning. This system looks to be only slightly cooler than the first, but similar to the first, will also have a tropical moisture component but it wont be as strong. Models show snow levels starting at around 7000 feet dropping to 5500 feet by Sunday morning although timing of the cooler air still looks to be uncertain given high variation in model ensembles. Overall for valleys and lower elevation passes the dominant p-type will be rain with most areas seeing between 0.05 and 0.40 of rain. For Elevations between 5500 feet and 6500 feet there will be a transition to snow with up to 1 of snow possible. Mountain ranges will be the snow winner with this system as between 2 to 10 of new snow will be possible above 6500 feet. Temperatures which will be warming through New Years Eve will plateau New Years Day and Friday before cooling with the second system to be closer too, but still above seasonal normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence for Quiet weather, light winds, and warming temperatures through New years Eve.

There is moderate confidence in the chances for rain and high elevation snow across Central and eastern NV New years Day into Friday morning.

There is moderate confidence in the valley rain and mountain snow showers for Saturday into Sunday morning.

There is low confidence in the timing of rain changing over to snow for elevations above 5500 feet Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions through Monday. With light winds and recent moisture there will be a low 10% to 20% chance for VCFG and vicinity freezing fog at area terminals. The highest chances for fog look to be during the early morning hours just before and after Sunrise.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.