textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry and breezy into Saturday.

* Critical fire weather conditions on Saturday afternoon as southwest winds increase ahead of a dry cold front.

* Active pattern early next week brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

High pressure remains dominant over the region through early Saturday with above normal temperatures. No record highs are forecast but Ely will come close to a daily record high on Friday (50% chance of at least tying the record of 91). Breezy conditions in the afternoon today and Friday, with stronger winds bringing breezy to locally windy conditions on Saturday as a long wave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move southeast across Oregon into the Silver State bringing a tightened pressure gradient and a much more widespread zone of afternoon wind gusts from 35 to 40 mph from the southwest across areas along and north of US 50 and along and southeast of US 6 in Nye and White Pine Counties. Strongest wind gusts look to take shape in White Pine County with a 50% chance for wind gusts of at least 40 mph Saturday. Minimum relative humidity values from 10 to 15% Saturday afternoon will combine with winds to produce critical fire weather conditions for most of northern and central Nevada. See fire weather discussion below for more details. Little to no rainfall is expected with moisture limited along and ahead of the front.

A secondary trough quickly moves in behind the first Sunday with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms in White Pine County (20% or less) along the remnant cold frontal boundary. Moisture remains the limiting factor once again.

Long wave troughing looks to remain the main feature at play into early next week. This will favor a more unsettled pattern featuring highs closer to normal then slightly below normal into the second half of next week. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across northern Nevada north of I-80 where precipitable water value anomalies finally increase above normal. Nearly a 25% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon across northern Elko and Humboldt Counties each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise, afternoon cumulus buildups are expected with CAPE values of 50 to 100 J/kg across most of northern and central Nevada. Breezy southwest winds Monday and Tuesday before turning more west-northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday behind a weak cold front that moves across the region Tuesday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence for above normal temperatures through Saturday and hot, dry, windy conditions on Saturday as medium-range ensemble clusters are in good agreement with incoming long wave trough. 80-90% confidence in Red Flag conditions across southern portions of Fire Zone 425 and central portions of Fire Zones 424, 438, 469, and 470. Moderate confidence in long wave troughing pattern through the middle portion of next week with warm and breezy conditions. Long range ensemble clusters vary in amplitude of the trough early next week, which will influence how far south showers and thunderstorms creep into northern and central Nevada as the cold front passes through Tuesday night.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light, however KEKO/KELY/KTPH can all expect a few hours of gusts up to 20KT during the afternoon today.

FIRE WEATHER

Mild fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow, with a few strong afternoon breezes creeping into western Humboldt county for tomorrow. Near critical to critical conditions are expected on Saturday due to strong winds above 30 mph and very dry conditions expected to develop across the coverage area, with Fire Weather Watches out for six of eight fire zones. The wind/RH threat dies off for Sunday but the dry thunder risk still shows signs of taking its place, although the environment has weakened even compared to yesterdays marginal setup. Winds look to increase again on Monday and enhanced fire weather conditions are forecast for central Nevada.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch in effect from 11 AM through 11 PM PDT Saturday for NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470.