textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather expected through at least next Wednesday. * Warming trend this weekend.

* Unseasonably warm Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The main trough to impact our area this week has moved off to the east, however a quick moving weak trough is expected again this evening and overnight. The only impacts expected with this system at this time are a cool night, with lows in the mid 20s, and a few flurries along the Idaho border. Beginning Friday morning a ridge builds over the Southwest resulting in extended dry conditions and high temperatures approaching ten degrees above normal by Sunday. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s while overnight lows will be in the 30s. Winds will remain light during this period, with afternoon gusts below 15 mph. Ridging is expected to continue through at least Wednesday but an atmospheric river is on the horizon. A lot of uncertainty still surrounds this system, including how much of its moisture will make it to the Great Basin. The only thing that can be said with confidence at this time is the AR would break the ridge late next week, which would also decrease temperatures again. The question of how cold and how wet will have to wait another few days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a weak trough overnight. High confidence in ridging and the resulting above average temperatures this weekend. Low confidence in the potential AR event late next week.

AVIATION

Gusty afternoon winds up to 20KT are expected at KTPH this afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds under 10KT at all terminals.

KBAM TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications outage.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.