textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances diminish each afternoon, ending by Sunday

* Moderate risk of heat-related illnesses throughout Northern Nevada Friday afternoon

* Above average temperatures continue through the end of the forecast

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridge continues to move back west and south over the desert SW, effectively cutting of the monsoon moisture feed, meaning storm chances will continue to wind down through the weekend. Friday, and into the weekend the upper level flow will change from being southerly to more drier southwest flow, bringing storm chances to an end after Sunday. With the drying trend, temperatures are set to gradually warm through the weekend with high pressure in control, and cloud cover dissipating. A heat advisory is in effect for northern Nevada, as high temperature will range between 95 to 103 degrees each day. Models have had a change since yesterday for the long term, models runs prior have hinted at a return to monsoonal flow over Nevada by the end of the month. Solutions today now show the upper ridge moving farther west setting up over the Great Basin and lower Colorado river valley. Models then show the ridge strengthening with height reaching 600 daM, which is very strong. If this solutions set holds, the monsoon will stay east of NV and very warm temperatures will persist through next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for decreasing thunderstorm chances each afternoon, eventually ending by Sunday afternoon.

There High confidence in the potential for warming temperatures through the weekend. With a Heat Advisory in effect for Friday.

There is low confidence in the evolution of the upper air pattern after Wednesday early as model consistency in possible solutions is low.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 20KT are expected this afternoon at KTPH and KWMC. Prob30s are in effect for afternoon thunderstorms which have a chance of impacting KEKO, KENV, KTPH, and KELY, along with associated strong winds up to 50KT and potential decreased visibility due to heavy rain. All sites expect light winds and VFR conditions after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain the primary concern over the next several days, mainly in eastern and central Nevada. Gusty afternoon winds through Sunday will reach elevated levels, but daytime RH values will be too high for any serious fire weather concerns.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-033-036-038.