textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* A storm system moving across northeastern Nevada today through Monday, bringing very gusty winds, and increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers

* Temperatures will be cold with below normal readings at all locations

* Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing Monday morning

* A slow warmup will start Monday and persist through the rest of the week

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Strong late season upper trough currently pushing into northern Nevada has over-performed so far with respect to prior forecasts across Humboldt and Elko counties as snowfall with the front has kept temperatures cooler than expected and with precipitation amounts higher than forecast. Elko so far had seen about 0.21 of water which fell as 1.6 inches of snow so far this morning. Winnemucca has seen 0.17 of water including 0.2 of snow so far. Models suggest that this performance should continue as the front moves into central Nevada this afternoon and evening. Still think the snow rain transition will be at 4500 feet, but could drop to valley floors if clouds can keep the sun at bay. Winds are still expected to be the main story with this system though as model trends outside of the NBM support current wind headlines across northern and central Nevada. The NBM is the low outlier with respect to winds so went ahead and upped the winds to better capture current trends with this system. This afternoon the precipitation will become more isolated to scattered, and become more convective in nature as the upper low moves overhead bringing stronger dynamical lift. So it would not be a surprise to see a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon especially across central NV as better instability develops. Overall amounts look to be better with up to an additional 0.10 of water for the valleys and 1 to 3 of snow for the mountains of northern NV. Amounts for central NV have risen too, with precipitation approaching Eureka and snow starting in Ely. Current trends favor 0.05 to 0.5 of water for the valleys, and up to 2 to 7 for the mountains, with the higher amounts favoring eastern White Pine County. Upper trough look to make its exit across Utah and into CO Monday afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon and Monday will be cool, with highs in the 30s and 40s today, recovering into the 40s and 50s Monday afternoon. After Monday weak WNW flow will develop across NV along with weak and subtle ridging aloft. This will be in place through next weekend allowing for quiet conditions to return, along with a warming trend that will see temperatures warm back into the upper 70 to low 80s by next Sunday. Overnight lows will bottom out Monday morning in the upper teens to upper 20s, however as the warming trend gets under way lows to will warm back above freezing, reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s by Sunday night. Winds after Monday will shift back to the west to northwest, with speeds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH in the afternoons.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Departure: Went ahead and had to bump up the winds/wind gusts for the High Wind Warning and wind advisory areas across Humboldt, N Elko, S Lander, S Eureka, N Nye, and White Pine Counties as the NBM winds were not representative of current trends.

There is high confidence for strong northerly winds Sunday through Monday morning as upper trough digs through eastern Nevada.

There is high confidence for scattered to numerous light rain and snow showers for Elko and White Pine counties as upper trough pushes strong cold front through the region through Monday morning.

There is high confidence for isolated to scattered light valley rain and mountain snow showers for western NV through Monday morning.

There is high confidence for a return to quiet weather conditions through the following weekend as WNW flow aloft with subtle ridging allows temperatures to warm back into the upper 60s to low 80s by next Sunday.

AVIATION

A storm system currently making its way across Nevada this afternoon through Monday morning. VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category, drops to MVFR to even IFR conditions will be possible as rain/snow showers drop ceilings to 1000 ft or less.. By this afternoon, valley terminal locations will see -SHRASN from time to time. There will be a low chance for VCTSacross central NV this afternoon, however low confidence in development and timing prohibits mention in TAFs. Winds will be very strong out of the N20-30G40KT, though KTPH will see much stronger winds N25-35G50KT. BLDU is possible and could restrict VSBY to one mile or less but confidence remains too low to place in forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Upper level trof and attendant surface cold front continue to progress thru the forecast area this evening with rain and snowfall exiting to the southeast tonight. Strong northerly winds will also gradually ease thru tonight and Monday as the trof exits east. Otherwise no significant fire weather concerns thru the end of the week with generally fair weather in place under a northwesterly flow pattern. A warming trend begins Monday with daytime highs residing in the mid 70s to mid 80s by Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-035-037-041.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ040.