textproduct: Elko
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
* Dry weather will persist today through at least the middle of next week. * Warming trend this weekend.
* Unseasonably warm Monday through Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
(This afternoon through next Friday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
High pressure ridge over the southwestern US will keep Nevada dry throughout the week. Dry and quiet pattern looks to anchor over the Silver Stat this week as any active weather looks to stay well to the north. Along with that a warming trend will see temperatures run about 10 degrees above normal for this time as highs average in the low to mid 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Winds will be light to breezy in the afternoons running out of the W to SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. However a upper trough passing to the north will act to increase winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, but only for northern portions of Humboldt and Elko counties as winds will pick up to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Monday through Friday of next week quiet conditions resume for the region. Beginning next Saturday models hint at the possibility of a strong upper trough that will try to push into Nevada. Although still very early, there are hints of an atmospheric river component with this system that long range models are picking up on. So the possibility of a return of beneficial rain and snow will need to be watch over the several days.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in upper ridge setting up over the great basin lasting through Friday of next week which will bring dry conditions and light winds.
There is medium confidence for an upper level trough passage across the Pacific northwest leading to increased winds across far northern Nevada Saturday into Sunday. There is low to low confidence of upper pattern evolution after Friday as models show a strong upper trough pushing into the western US.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions across Nevada through Sunday morning with west to southwest winds of 5KT to 15 KT with occasional gusts up to 20KT possible.
KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to a communication disruption.
LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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