textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms chances 5-10% this afternoon and early evening

* Highs today in the 80s, trending cooler mid-week

* Gusty SW winds this afternoon across Humboldt County

* Gusty winds Tuesday; strongest across central NV

* Unsettled weather Tuesday through at least Friday

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Increasing southwesterly flow aloft today as a low pressure center approaches NV from the Pacific NW. Winds gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected this afternoon in most areas, though for Humboldt County which is closest to the approaching system wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected. Weak instability in combination with mid-level moisture will result in a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms from late this morning through early this evening across most of the northern and central NV.

The low center approaches Nevada for Tuesday and winds only increase ahead of it, with conditions in central Nevada being watched for potential Wind Advisory level winds through much of the day. This system is expected to bring much cooler and wetter conditions as it meanders its way around Nevada through Friday. During this period, daytime temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows hovering near to a few degrees below freezing. Off and on showers will also continue through this time. Precipitation is expected to largely remain as rain at low elevations, with mountain snow, however low elevation snow cannot be ruled out entirely at this time and remains a low probability event. The low finally exits to the east by Saturday and temperatures begin to increase again, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s for the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in convection potential today. Moderate to high confidence in stronger winds across central NV Tuesday. High confidence in cooler conditions Tuesday through Friday, with moderate confidence in valley rain and mountain snow. Slight deviation to chance of thunderstorms for today to get some mention of TS in the forecast.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today and tonight. Partly cloudy early this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. Weak convection across portions of central and northeastern NV this afternoon with FL100-150. Thunderstorms chances today will be 10% for KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, KENV and KELY, and around 5% for KTPH. Outflow wind gusts from any storms that develop today could reach 45 mph. Otherwise, S-SW winds this afternoon with gusts generally in the 15 to 25 knot range, though KWMC may see gusts of 30 to 35 knots. Gusty winds may result in blowing dust and VIS at KWMC and KBAM to 6SM.

FIRE WEATHER

South to southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph over most areas this afternoon, though a little stronger across NW Nevada including fire weather zone 437 where gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected. The Red Flag Warning for strong winds and low RH for zone 437 remains in effect for today between 12 noon and 11PM PDT. Weak instability sets up across most of northern and central NV today, with a 5-10% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms from late this morning through early this evening. Strongest winds Tuesday shift to central NV, especially zone 425 where gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected. Trending cooler Tuesday through mid-week, with periods of valley rain and mountain snow through Friday.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 12PM PDT Monday through 11PM PDT Monday for NVZ437.