textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm, dry, and breezy thru Saturday.

* Critical fire weather conditions on Saturday afternoon as west-southwest winds increase ahead of a dry cold front.

* Active pattern early next week brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Zonal flow continues over the forecast area this morning, though a robust upper level trof and low pressure center will begin to move into the PacNW. This will gradually shift the upper level flow pattern to southwesterly thru the day and tonight while concurrently strengthening the pressure gradient. West-southwesterly breezes will be present this afternoon with winds becoming slightly stronger than observed yesterday. Gusts 25 to 30 mph can be expected. Daytime high temperatures reside 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal with readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows tonight will be mostly in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level trof continues to move into the western U.S. on Saturday, and the attendant surface cold front will move southeast across Oregon and into the Silver State. West-southwesterly winds will be stronger Saturday and gusts of 35 to 40 mph can be expected. The strongest wind gusts look to take shape in White Pine County with a 50% chance for wind gusts of at least 40 mph. Winds shift northwesterly thru the evening and overnight as the frontal boundary progresses thru the area from northwest to southeast. Additionally, minimum afternoon relative humidity will reside between 10 to 15% Saturday. Low relative humidity combined with gusty winds will produce critical fire weather conditions for most of northern and central Nevada. See fire weather discussion below for more details. Little to no rainfall is expected with moisture limited along and ahead of the front. However, a dry thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary can not be completely ruled out (20% chance). The main threat will be Saturday afternoon and evening, primarily within Elko and White Pine Counties based on frontal progression and associated dynamics.

Low probability of a light shower or dry thunderstorm Sunday afternoon in White Pine County (10%) along the remnant cold frontal boundary. Though moisture will be the limiting factor.

Upper level troffing in place thru the middle of next week as another upper low moves into the west coast Monday. This will favor an unsettled pattern featuring highs closer to normal then slightly below normal into the second half of next week under a gradual but slight cooling trend. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across northern Nevada north of I-80 where PWAT anomalies are progged to increase to above normal. Around a 25% to 35% probability for showers and thunderstorms across northern Elko and Humboldt Counties each afternoon Tuesday thru Thursday. West- southwesterly breezes in place Monday and Tuesday before turning more west-northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday behind a weak cold front that clips northern Nevada Tuesday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for warmer than normal temperatures thru Saturday along with hot, dry, and windy conditions Saturday as ensemble clusters are in good agreement. 80-90% confidence in critical fire weather conditions across southern portions of fire weather zone 425 and central portions of fire weather zones 424, 438, 469, and 470. Moderate confidence in long wave troffing pattern thru the middle of next week. Long range ensemble clusters vary in amplitude of the trof early next week, which will influence how far south showers and thunderstorms creep into northern and central Nevada as the cold front passes thru Tuesday night.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals thru Friday night. Afternoon winds today will be generally breezier and more widespread across the region than what was observed yesterday. West-southwesterly breezes with gusts 20KT to 25KT can be expected at all terminals beginning around noon PDT today with winds easing after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and warm weather prevails across Northern and Central Nevada today and afternoon winds will be slightly stronger in general across the forecast area with west-southwesterly gusts 25 to 30 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will be around 15% or less and daytime high temperatures will reside 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Saturday with winds becoming even stronger and west-southwesterly gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected as an upper level trof and attendant dry surface cold front move thru from northwest to southeast. Winds shift west-northwestrerly Saturday evening and overnight in conjunction with the frontal passage while concurrently easing. Minimum afternoon relative humidity again looks to reside around 15 percent or less across the forecast area and the combination of elevated wind and low RH Saturday will lead to critical fire weather conditions as noted, prompting a fire weather watch that is in effect from 11 AM PDT Saturday morning thru 11 PM PDT Saturday night. Therefore Red Flag Warning issunace will be dependent on fuels status and will be coordinated with wildland fire partners and the GBCC. A low chance (20%) of a dry thunderstorm or two is also present Saturday afternoon and evening along the front with the main threat primarily within the southern halves of fire weather zones 469, 470, and across all of zone 425 based on frontal progression and associated dynamics. Lighter winds Sunday though the typical afternoon breezes will be present. 10% chance of a dry thunderstorm within zone 425 along the remnant cold frontal boundary Sunday afternoon as well, though prognostics continue to trend toward a less favorable environment making this a low confidence prospect.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch in effect from 11 AM through 11 PM PDT Saturday for NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470.