textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Oregon and Idaho borders, as well as the Utah border, thru this evening

* Generally fair weather this weekend

* Potential for rain across central Nevada in the Monday/Tuesday time frame

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cut off low ejects east along the northern Nevada border today with the associated weak frontal boundary moving thru northern Nevada from the west. West- northwesterly breezes will be present today, though winds will be more modest than yesterday with gusts remaining less than 30 mph. Light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected along the Idaho and Oregon borders as well as the Utah border thru this evening. Any rain accumulations will be around 0.10 inches or less and the best opportunity for accumulating rainfall will be across northern Elko County. Will maintain a low chance of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into Saturday for the far northeast portion of Elko County, but generally speaking, weather will be fair thru the weekend. Daytime high temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will warm thru the weekend with daytime highs returning to the mid 70s to mid 80s by Sunday.

A low chance of rain will be present across central Nevada in the Monday and Tuesday time frame as a modest Pacific low moves into central California from the west. That said, latest numerical model solutions are not in agreement on the exact track of the low, which will be the determining factor with regard to rain potential. Fair weather looks to be in place the latter half of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists for showers and thunderstorms along the northern and eastern NV borders today, though confidence is moderate with regard to rain accumulation. Significant grid edits required within PoP grids to better represent rain shower and thunderstorm chances today and this evening.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions thru Friday night. A weak frontal boundary moving thru northern Nevada from the west today will produce west-northwesterly breezes though gusts will be around 25KT or less at all terminals. There is a low chance of VCTS and SHRA at KENV today and this evening, though confidence remains too low to include this in the TAF. VCTS and SHRA will be more prevalent to the east within Utah and southeast Idaho.

FIRE WEATHER

A weak frontal boundary associated with a parent cut off low will pass thru northern Nevada from the west today. West- northwesterly breezes will be present though gusts will remain less than 30 mph. Main concern will be for light showers and isolated thunderstorms present thru this evening along the Idaho/Oregon border as well as the Utah border. There is a low chance (10% to 20%) of wetting rains. Low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms carrying into Saturday for the northern half of zone 470 but generally speaking, weather will be fair this weekend with light winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

A modest Pacific low looks to move thru southern Nevada early next week. There is a chance of wetting rain within central Nevada though latest numerical model solutions are not in agreement on the exact track of the low, which will be the determining factor with regard to rain.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.