textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and dry and breezy thru Friday

* Stronger winds Saturday combine with low minimum relative humidity to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

* Active pattern early next week brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Thursday)

Upper level westerly flow continues over the forecast area thru today. The typical afternoon breezes will be in effect with gusts around 20 mph. Daytime high temperatures will mostly be in the 80s with overnight lows in the low 40s to low 50s, upper 30s in the typical colder valleys.

A deep upper level trof however will begin to move into the PacNW Friday and Saturday, subsequently tighten the surface pressure gradient over the state with upper level flow also shifting southwesterly by Friday night. On Saturday, a much stronger hot, dry, windy event is expected across northern and central NV as the trof moves into the western U.S. and a weak attendant dry surface cold front impacts northern and central Nevada. West-southwesterly wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts 35-40 mph are forecast. Winds shift west-northwesterly overnight. A low chance of isolated dry thunderstorms exists on Sunday afternoon for mainly White Pine and portions of eastern Elko Counties, though latest prognostics continue to indicate diminished instability and borderline atmospheric moisture. Convective cloud buildups continue to look like the most likely scenario.

Beyond Sunday, the parent low pressure system responsible for next weeks unsettled weather will begin to eject shortwaves thru the northern Rockies. The upper level low pressure center itself is indicated to move into the PacNW late Tuesday. Afternoon breezes, cloud cover, and a low probability of precipitaton will be present thru the first half of next week. Daytime high temperatures will also run around 10 degrees cooler, residing near to slightly cooler than normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for hot, dry, and windy conditions Saturday. Moderate confidence exists in a more unsettled weather pattern for early next week though low confidence with regard to the prospect of precipitaton. Modest edits made to PoP and low temperature fields.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals thru Thursday night. Afternoon winds today will be lighter in general across the region, though westerly breezes will still be present at KTPH, KELY, KENV, and KEKO with occasional gusts 20KT to 22KT before diminishing after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and warm weather prevails across Northern and Central Nevada thru Friday. Afternoon winds today will be lighter in general across the forecast area, though occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph can still be expected across the eastern half of Nevada. Slightly breezier Friday afternoon with gusts 25 to 30 mph across the forecast area. Minimum relative humidity values will be around 15% or less each afternoon with daytime high temperatures residing around 10 degrees warmer than normal. Weather pattern shifts Saturday with winds becoming stronger and west- southwesterly gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected as an upper level trof and attendant weak dry surface cold front moves thru from the northwest. Winds shift west-northwestrerly Saturday evening and overnight while concurrently easing. Minimum afternoon relative humidity also looks to reside around 15 percent or less and the combination of elevated wind and low RH Saturday will lead to elevated or critical fire weather conditions. Though with the status of fuels currently noted as approaching critical, a red flag warning is not anticipated at this time unless coordinated with wildland fire partners and the GBCC. A low chance of isolated dry thunderstorms is present Sunday afternoon across the southern halves of fire weather zones 469, 470, and across all of zone 425, but is still low confidence with latest prognostics continuing to indicate diminished instability and borderline atmospheric moisture. Convective cloud buildups continue to look like the most likely scenario.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.