textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes.

* Temperatures will gradually warm through Thursday, followed by cooling cooling conditions over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Quiet and rather benign conditions will continue through the next several days as a dry west to southwest flow continues over the forecast area through the short term. This will result in fairly pleasant fall-like conditions for the rest of the week with highs in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be on the breezy side Thursday and Friday and these will come into play concerning areas of elevated fire weather concerns. These will be handled in the fire weather section below. Wind speeds will generally run 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Thursday and slightly stronger for Friday with speeds and gusts some 5 to 10 mph higher.

Models are depicting an upper level trough setting up along the western Pacific for the weekend. The dry southwest flow is expected to continue through the weekend with low end probabilities for light precipitation. Heights will gradually diminish and as a result, afternoon high temperatures will also cool several degrees during the weekend. Readings will be in the low 70s to low 80s for high temperatures with lows in the 30s and 40s for overnight low temperatures. Winds will be breezy across central Nevada.

The upper trough may be pushing across the region during the early to middle portions of next week. Continued cool conditions with breezy winds and light precipitation can be expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Adjusted wind and wind gust grids for the latter portions of the week as the upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific northwest. This was the only change made to the NBM forecast.

Confidence continues to remain low in the weak storm system for the early to mid-week portion. There is a fifteen to twenty-five percent probability for isolated showers across northern Nevada through Monday of next week. There is low confidence for upper level ridging during the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Expect occasional afternoon breezy winds across all terminals with gusts to 20-25KT.

FIRE WEATHER

No fire weather concerns expected Thursday as dry and quiet conditions continue with winds to 20 mph and minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid teens. An upper low pressure system will be moving across the Pacific Northwest states Friday. This will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to portions of northern and central Nevada for the afternoon. At this time, expecting mainly elevated conditions across fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be at or above fifteen percent with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Some of the drier and windier locales could briefly touch critical fire conditions, but the expectation is that the areal coverage and time criteria will not be met. Look for a slow cool down during the weekend with slowly increasing minimum relative humidity values and breezy winds in central Nevada during this time. Conditions will continue to be elevated in central Nevada during the weekend. By early next week, a weak upper trough passing through Nevada may bring a low fifteen to twenty five percent probability for isolated showers for northern Nevada. Amounts at this time look to be very light with only a trace to 0.05 of rainfall possible for select locations.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.