textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler temperatures continue through tomorrow.

* Dry and quiet weather expected Sunday.

* A second weather system will bring periods of rain and high elevated snowfall across Nevada Monday and Tuesday.

* A third weather system is expected to bring in periods of additional rain and elevated snowfall across Nevada Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain partly cloudy at this time as residual low-level moisture remains stubborn. Winds are still breezy in the downslope areas of West Wendover and lee-side of mountain ranges but should continue to relax as the day wears on. For the rest of today and tonight, look for a shortwave ridge axis to pass over the forecast area, bringing quiet conditions to northern and central Nevada tonight. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 20s to low 30s.

By Sunday, all models are showing upper level low pressure off the west coast of the United States. The previously mentioned ridge will be shifting well off to the east. Southwest flow will commence over the forecast area with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the 50s and 60s. No precipitation is expected in the morning. Model simulations are bringing the upper trough onto the coast of California late in the day Sunday in California. This system is expected to slowly track east into California during the overnight period, with light showery precipitation beginning across western and central Humboldt county Monday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. The upper trough will continue its slow eastward trek during the Monday timeframe. Strong winds are expected to develop Monday afternoon, especially across central Nevada. South to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected mainly across central Nevada during the afternoon. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s. Snow levels will start out rather high at 7000 feet and above during the afternoon. On Monday night and Tuesday, the main trough axis is expected to cross western California with a cold front passing through the state during this time. Overnight lows will be in the 20s. Snow levels will eventually drop to around 4500 to 5500 feet by Tuesday morning. All told, many valley locations will see a dusting to an inch in the north, with about an inch or two in central Nevada. Over the higher passes and summits along roadways in the central parts, about one to four inches. Finally, across the higher passes and summits in the north, up to two inches are possible. The rain and snow will be slow to clear during the Tuesday timeframe with near normal daytime highs in the 40s. Winds will be light.

A shortwave ridge will bring quiet conditions but it will not last long. On its heels is the next in a series of systems that will affect northern and central Nevada. This system will push across the forecast area during the mid to latter portions of next week. This is expected to be a much colder system and the area could see the snow levels dropping to the valley floors with minor accumulations possible. Will need to continue monitoring this system for possible winter headline products. Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the teens and 20s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor edits were made to the short term wind grids to bump up sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in central Nevada on Monday. Confidence is high with respect to the dry weather through tomorrow. Confidence remains moderate in the next system affecting the area late Sunday through Tuesday. Confidence in the third system is low at this time due to differences in strength and timing.

AVIATION

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light at less than 15 knots.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.