textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through today, and again from Wednesday to Friday.

* Near record warmth in most of northern and central Nevada for this afternoon.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are clear this morning across northern and central Nevada. This is due to an upper level ridge over southern Utah. For today, look for mostly sunny skies across the region with very warm afternoon temperatures. Readings will be in the 80s to low 90s. Some locales could see record to near record temperatures. Look for the dry conditions to continue to night with lows in the 40s.

A weak upper level trough will be approaching the region Monday. At this time, there is limited moisture and instability associated with this feature. Have added isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of northeast Nevada tomorrow afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday's readings with highs in the 80s. Lows will be in the 40s.

Upper level ridging will build in again, dominating the weather for northern and central Nevada from Tuesday through at least Friday. High temperatures will remain well above normal with readings in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 40s. Winds will be light each afternoon with occasional gusts to 20 mph.

The weekend is looking interesting though confidence is very low at this time. One scenario is depicting the remnants of a tropical system getting swept up in the flow with an upper trough in the eastern Pacific. Current NBM forecast has increased PoPs and associated weather elements for the upcoming weekend. No changes were made to the NBM gridded forecast this far out and will need to continue to monitor the situation as the weekend draws near.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor changes were made to the NBM forecast for tomorrow. This includes adjustments to the PoP and weather grids, adding isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. High confidence remains in the potential for near to record highs through Monday with high pressure. Confidence is still low for isolated showers and thunderstorms for far northern Nevada Monday night into Tuesday as a weak upper trough moves into Nevada. There is high confidence in the return of upper ridging Wednesday through Friday next week. Confidence is very low with respect to the upcoming weekend's active weather.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category through the next 24 hour forecast period. Sustained wind speeds will be 5-10 knots out of the west and southwest with a few gust up to 20 knots possible.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.