textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Fair weather and cooler conditions Sunday

* Elevated to critical fire weather conditions ahead of a weak cold front Monday

* Chance of precipitation Monday evening thru Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Generally fair weather today with lighter winds and cooler temperatures, though the typical afternoon breezes will be present with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Peak wind gusts will be across the eastern half of the forecast area with lighter winds further west as the most recent weather system continues to progress east. Daytime high temperatures will be spread from north to south with mid to upper 60s across northern Humboldt and Elko Counties and upper 70s to low 80s across northern Nye County. Still anticipating cumulus buildups across the eastern half of White Pine County this afternoon but not expecting any thunderstorms as atmospheric moisture looks quite limited. Concurrently, high level clouds will begin to move into northwest Nevada from the northwest as the next upper level trof continues to move into the western U.S.

Upper level trof and weak attendant dry surface cold front will move into the forecast area Monday bringing precipitation into the area Monday evening thru Tuesday night. That said, precipitaton will be situated across northern Nevada with central Nevada expected to remain dry. Valley rainfall accumulations look to be around 0.10 inches or less and latest numerical model solutions have trended slightly lower in this regard. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon, focused within Elko County, with a dry thunderstorm or two likely embedded along the frontal boundary. A significant thunderstorm outbreak is not anticipated. Additionally, elevated southwesterly afternoon winds will be present with gusts 35 to 40 mph. Combined with low afternoon relative humidity, elevated to critical fire weather condtions are expected, prompting a Fire Weather Watch that is in effect beginning 11 AM PDT thru 11 PM PDT Monday.

Fairer weather will return Wednesday and persist thru the end of the week under a more benign northwesterly flow regime as a broad region of high pressure resides off the west coast. The typical afternoon breezes can be expected with winds from the northwest.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail thru tonight. West- northwesterly afternoon breezes will be present this afternoon at all terminals aside from KWMC where winds will be light. Gusts 20KT to 25KT will be present.

FIRE WEATHER

Generally fair and cooler weather today though west-northwesterly afternoon breezes will be present across the eastern half of the forecast area with gusts 25 to 30 mph as the most recent weather system continues to progress east. Winds will be lighter across western Nevada. Still anticipating cumulus buildups across the eastern half of FWZ 425 this afternoon but not expecting any thunderstorms as atmospheric moisture looks quite limited. An upper level trof and weak attendant dry surface cold front will bring precipitation back into the area Monday evening thru Tuesday night. That said, precipitaton will be situated across northern Nevada with central Nevada expected to remain dry and the valleys will be hard pressed to observe a wetting rain. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon, focused within FWZs 438, 469, and 470, with a dry thunderstorm or two likely embedded along the frontal boundary. A significant thunderstorm outbreak is not anticipated. Additionally, elevated southwesterly afternoon winds will be present with gusts 35 to 40 mph. Combined with low afternoon relative humidity residing around 15% or less, elevated to critical fire weather condtions are expected, prompting a Fire Weather Watch that is in effect beginning 11 AM PDT thru 11 PM PDT Monday. Elevated west- northwesterly winds will be present Tuesday afternoon as well.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Fire Weather Watch in effect from 11 AM through 11 PM PDT Monday for NVZ425-426-427-470.