textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon

* Warming trend Tuesday through Saturday

* Next weather system into NV next weekend

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large longwave trough over central Canada continues to dictate the weather pattern over the western CONUS in the early week. A pair of shortwaves pushing through the state today and Tuesday will keep precipitation chances over the area through Tuesday night. Current satellite and radar depicts scattered showers and some build-ups over central NV. Model guidance is disappointing in terms of available CAPE over the region Monday evening so confidence is low in storm activity today. That being said central and east-central NV could see beneficial rainfall amounts from shower activity between 0.10-0.25 inches through Tuesday morning.

The second wave pushing through NV on Tuesday will sport better CAPE values (especially over NE NV) but moisture availability isn't as strong. A warming trend begins Tuesday as high temperatures increase gradually each afternoon through Saturday. A warmer atmosphere overhead may influence isolated storm activity particularly over northern Elko County Tuesday PM.

The ULT over Canada will shift eastward enough to allow northerly flow in the NE flank of an HPC to the southwest to influence a brief quiet period in the Great Basin through late week. Long term guidance supports the another weather system set to impact the region with its LPC centered over Puget Sound by Saturday. Timing and precipitation amounts with next weekends system currently suffer from model disagreement.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains in shower activity today, though less confidence exists in thunder across central NV due to a lack of instability in modeled data and abundant cloud cover already in place over that location. Moderate confidence remains in a warming trend through the week. Confidence exists in another weather system setting up for next weekend though timing and precipitation amounts have no confidence at this time. No major changes to grids needed at this time.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Tuesday afternoon. VCTS conditions are forecast for KTPH and KELY Monday evening until after sunset. Temporary MVFR/IFR conditions may exist in and around TS activity. Afternoon winds will be light at all terminals except for around TS activity where gusty erratic winds will exist.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.