textproduct: Elko

KEY MESSAGES

* Periods of valley rain and mountain snow continue through Friday.

* Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance for severe thunderstorms for eastern Nevada.

* Much cooler Friday and Friday night, followed by a modest warming trend and dry weather through Monday.

DISCUSSION

(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A deep upper level trof continues to progress thru Nevada this morning from west to east. However, upper level energy moving in from the upstream side of the trof axis will split the trof into two pieces by Saturday morning. An upper level closed low will form over southern California and Arizona, while the northern portion moves northeast and into Montana.

Showers will be maintained across the forecast area thru most of the day today though will dissipate from northwest to southeast as the day progresses. Showers exit the forecast area completely by the latter half of tonight. Thunderstorms are not anticipated today. Concurrently, cooler air aloft will filter in from the northwest. Snow levels, which had been near 9000 feet or higher for the duration of the event, will lower to around 7000 feet. Timing may allow for snowfall, which had been restricted to the mountain summits, to reach some of the pass routes and foothills. Austin summit, Mountain City, and Jarbidge look most likely to receive snowfall but any accumulation will be less than an inch with the exception of Jarbidge where one to two inches are forecast. Winds will also continue to shift from southwesterly to northerly today and this evening as the trof continues its progression east and into Utah. Daytime high temperatures today will be notably cooler as cooler air filters into Nevada from the northwest as noted. Look for highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows will follow suite, and readings widespread in the 20s are expected with the typical colder valleys residing in the mid to upper teens.

Weather will be fair but cool this weekend under a modest warming trend thru Monday. Daytime high temperatures Saturday will reside in the 50s though overnight lows remain cold under mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. Widespread readings in the 20s are again expected with mid to upper teens in the typical colder valleys.

A modest low pressure system is still on track to move into the PacNW Sunday night. Most recent numerical model solutions bring the track of this system slightly further south with the cold front clipping northern Nevada from the northwest late in the day Monday/Monday night. Given the latest indicated trajectory of this system, have opted to now include light rain and show showers in the forecast for northern Humboldt and Elko Counties. Significant precipitation accumulation is not expected at this time and rainfall/liquid equivalent snowfall accumulation will be around a tenth of an inch or less. Southwesterly breezes can also be expected Monday afternoon.

Beyond Monday, and thru the remainder of next week, weather looks to be fair with a modest upper level ridge positioned over the intermountain west. Temperatures will be mostly seasonal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the continuation of showers thru today, while dissipating from northwest to southeast, and coming to an end tonight.

There is moderate confidence in the probability of light precipitation across northern Humboldt and Elko Counties Monday. with high confidence of fair weather thru the remainder of next week.

A blend of various model outputs utilized for PoP and weather parameters.

AVIATION

SHRA will remain across the forecast area today with impacts at all terminals possible as an upper level storm system continues to move thru the region. TS are not anticipated today. CIGS will generally remain within VFR limits but any SHRA that move on terminal will likely lower CIGS and produce MVFR to even IFR conditions for brief periods of time. Brief reductions in VIS due to SHRA on terminal may reduce flight categories to MVFR or IFR as well. SHRA will dissipate thru the day and evening from northwest to southeast as the upper level system progresses east. SHRA look to be completely exited from the forecast area by the latter half of tonight, coming to an end at KELY around 04Z. Winds will be light to locally breezy with gusts around 25KT possible. Winds shift from a generally southwest direction to northerly by this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Thunderstorms are not anticipated today but showers will persist across the forecast area thru much of the day. However, they will begin to dissipate from northwest to southeast as the day progresses, eventually exiting the forecast area to the southeast by the latter half of tonight. Additional rainfall accumulation today will be light, generally around 0.10 inches or less for the valleys, though the high terrain will likely observe an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall/liquid equivalent snowfall. Winds will be generally light to locally breezy, and gusts 25 to 30 mph are likely. Winds also continue to shift northerly thru today, from northwest to southeast as the the upper level system progresses east and out of Nevada. Northerly winds will be widespread across the forecast area by this evening. Much cooler temperatures will be in place today though a modest warming trend will take place thru the weekend with dry and fair weather also present. A moderate chance for light precipitaton along the OR/ID border is present on Monday/Monday night. Any precipitaton that falls Monday/Monday night will likely remain around 0.10 inches or less. Fair weather will be in place the remainder of next week as a modest upper level ridge and high pressure reside over the intermountain west.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.