textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Upper portion of the weather system that has impacted the area over the last few days has moved into east Texas this afternoon, with the surface low over southern Arkansas. To this point of the afternoon, convective development has been much less than anticipated, but with precipitable water values remaining in excess of 2.2 inches, and very healthy cumulus noted on satellite, not going to back off on high probabilities this afternoon quite yet. Any storms that do develop will obviously still have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall. No changes to the Flood Watch...yet. With most convection expected to be diurnally driven this afternoon, watch is likely to be pared back or perhaps even cancelled entirely at some point during the late afternoon/early evening news cycle.

Little in the way of precipitation expected during the overnight hours tonight. Precipitable water values are comparatively drier on Saturday, closer to 2 inches, and areal coverage of storms should remain on the scattered side, primarily in the afternoon. This will lead to somewhat higher max temperatures, in the lower 90s. Heat index values look to fall just short of advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As ridging builds in from the east Sunday into early next week, precipitable water values fall back into the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range, which is much closer to climatological means for late July. Rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range may actually be overstating things for Sunday through Tuesday, and it wouldn't be a shock if much of the area remained dry during that period. That's going to allow high temperatures to heat up several degrees into the lower and middle 90s. Looks like we'll have borderline Heat Advisory criteria for portions of the area Sunday afternoon, and more solidly criteria level for Monday and Tuesday. Not quite enough confidence to pull the trigger on an advisory for Sunday yet, but the potential is there.

An easterly wave is expected to move through the northern Gulf for Wednesday and Thursday, but some uncertainty as to whether the precipitation shield with that system remains over the Gulf of spreads into portions of the area. That will be the difference between scattered storms and highs around 90, or mostly dry and highs in the mid 90s. Will hang with the NBM numbers for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Primarily MVFR ceilings at forecast issuances, but patches of VFR conditions. Areal coverage of TSRA has been limited for the last several hours, but expect more development between 19z-23z before diminishing again around sunset. Will carry PROB30 for now, but at least a few amendments likely to be needed this afternoon. Overnight should see primarily VFR conditions. Areal coverage of TSRA expected to be more limited on Saturday, and will not mention TSRA prior to 18z, and only PROB30 beyond 18z at KMSY for now.

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Dropped the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines from the coastal waters as observations generally 15 knots or less. Pressure gradient expected to remain rather weak through the forecast period. Beyond tonight, areal coverage of thunderstorms expected to be much more limited than the last several days through at least Tuesday. Threat for thunderstorms may increase again at midweek next week, but timing on exactly when that happens isn't confidently clear.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 73 91 72 93 / 20 50 0 20 BTR 75 91 75 93 / 10 60 0 40 ASD 74 91 74 93 / 20 50 10 30 MSY 78 92 78 94 / 10 60 0 40 GPT 77 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 30 PQL 76 91 75 93 / 30 40 10 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.