textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Convection in association with Invest 93L will continue to develop and move through the region through the short term period off and on. Continued the flood watch as is with still on average 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected, especially along and south of I10/12. That said, locally higher amounts will be possible, especially in training or backbuilding cells.

The surface low, now situated south of Pensacola, FLA will continue to move west and likely end up in southeast Louisiana sometime later this afternoon and evening. Overall, the timing it has to do much in terms of development is limited. Not impossible for a weak TC to develop, however, going into this evening the overall look is not impressive to say the least. For now regardless, as advertised the impacts if it were a named system or not would be the same, which is hydro related.

As the surface low continues moving westward, onshore flow will develop. Given the proximity of the tropical disturbance (likely downstream by early Friday...but still on the moist side of the flow) continued the enhanced POPs for diurnally driven convection respectively. Good news is there is no need for heat products through the remainder of the short term obviously because of the higher rain chances and cloud cover. Although, it's still going to be very humid and overnights will be on the warmer side. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Ridging will begin to spread westward once again by the weekend. A somewhat robust H5 ridge sets up over Florida and eventually retrogrades over the Gulf. This pattern will result in lower rain chances and high temperatures. Low level flow will remain light and southerly, which will keep some low level moisture maintenance intact, albeit weak. This will more than likely lead to another round of heat headlines this weekend.

Going into the next workweek, the ridge quickly moves off to the west and north repositioning over the central plains. This will allow a mid level weakness to develop over the eastern coast and perhaps once again an uptick in diurnally driven convection (at least higher rain chances) than we are advertising over the weekend with the ridge overhead.

Toward the end of the period...well...the skeletal remains of invest 93L (or at least in part) may rotate around into the western Atlantic again and perhaps again into the northeastern Gulf. Will need to monitor as it looks very similar to current near term happenings. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Main issue will be waves of showers and thunderstorms that will be moving through the area in association with a weak and broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of America. The main issue will be lowering of ceilings and visibilities as the bands of convection move through. Winds will generally not be an issue outside of the storms as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Winds and seas will uptick just a bit as the tropical disturbance continues to move west toward our waters today. Cautionary headlines may be necessary later this afternoon and tonight as onshore flow increases on the eastern periphery of this feature. Expect higher winds and seas locally in and around convection for both gulf waters and tidal lakes. Going into the weekend, high pressure will mostly be in control with a return of more benign marine conditions. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 90 74 88 72 / 80 30 90 20 BTR 89 76 87 75 / 90 50 90 30 ASD 87 74 88 75 / 80 50 90 20 MSY 88 78 89 78 / 90 60 90 20 GPT 88 77 88 77 / 90 60 90 30 PQL 88 75 89 76 / 80 70 90 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.